key: cord-1056209-esbo8ocr authors: Udmale, Parmeshwar; Pal, Indrajit; Szabo, Sylvia; Pramanik, Malay; Large, Andy title: Global food security in the context of COVID-19: A scenario-based exploratory analysis date: 2020-07-22 journal: Progress in disaster science DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2020.100120 sha: 0e0aa082cf2c3b75b35ca127db1e24427020ac27 doc_id: 1056209 cord_uid: esbo8ocr Abstract This study highlights the major players in the global food balance, potential implications of COVID-19 on global cereal supply, and SDG-2 (zero hunger). It found that developing countries, fifteen from Africa followed by ten from Latin America, six from Oceania, and four from Asia are the most vulnerable to changes food supply shocks. It concludes that the current pandemic is likely to cause transitory food insecurity across such vulnerable countries. The effects of the pandemic on food security (SDG-2) may persist longer as a combined effect of economic slowdown and increase in poverty limiting food supply and access beyond 2020. Although arguably the world has enough food to feed everyone, food supply and distribution is not even in space and time. Globally, average diets supply 2,881 kcal/person/day against the average dietary energy requirement of 2,353 kcal/person/day (FAO, 2014) . At both macro-and micro-levels, regions periodically experience food shortages due to unfavorable conditions for food production, environmental degradation, and labor or supply chain disruptions due to extreme weather, economic crises, conflicts/insecurity, sanctions, and health shocks including epidemics (Food Security Information Network (FSIN), 2020). Climate change impacts such including droughts, floods, heatwaves and cold spells can also exacerbate pressures on food production and food security (Szabo, et al., 2016; Szabo, et al., 2018) . For example, Lesk et al. (2016) estimate that, globally, droughts and heatwaves combined could cause an approximate 10% decrease in national-level crop production. According to the Global Report on Food Crisis 2020 (FSIN, 2020) , extreme weather events in 2019 significantly affected food security in the Horn of Africa, Southern J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f 4 supply-side components of food balance, e.g., production, stocks, international trade as well as demand-side components, e.g., consumption patterns and population growth in combination affecting overall food supply. Supply-side components play an essential role in ensuring global food security. But what if food production decreases or food stocks becoming widely depleted or if international trade reduces across the world due to a rise in more protectionist policies? Such a situation is unlikely, but if such a scenario did occur, it may have potentially severe repercussions to food supply in food import-dependent countries and worsen food supply in countries which are already suffering from severe food shortages. Poorer countries would be likely to suffer disproportionately, just as the socio-economic impacts of the 2020 Covid-19 pandemics are predicted to hit lower-income countries more severely than elsewhere. International trade is one of the significant components of food balance; if this is affected by any form of global shock, it could have severe and long-lasting impacts on food security. Traditionally, potential drivers of changes in international trade are dominated on the negative side by trade barriers or restrictions imposed by countries to control prices and on the positive side by the positive side by trade agreements designed to ensure domestic food supply (FAO, 2017) . For example, during the world food crisis of 2007-2008, of a sample taken of 105 countries, 33 adopted food policy restrictive measures (Sharma, R., 2011) . Trade restrictive measures are also a typical outcome of Public J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f 5 The December 2019 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the result of the wide and rapid spread of a viral strain that causes severe respiratory illness, named coronavirus disease 2019 (hereinafter COVID-19). COVID-19 was declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a global pandemic on 30 January 2020. Until the WHO declaration, the potential impacts of COVID-19 at a global scale was only speculated upon, and it is arguable that many nations were unprepared for the subsequent rapid spread of the pandemic. The decision of individual governments on COVID-19 crisis management/emergency response and the variation in the applications of 'the four Cs strategy' (Cognition, Communication, Coordination, and Control) remains the predominant approach in the face of the global pandemicthe first to hit in the Technological Age (Pal et al., 2017) . In efforts to minimize public health vulnerability through reduction to exposure, countries across the world exercised a variety of legislative approaches, often involving emergency laws and powers, to impose lockdowns in domestic and international travel restrictions, curfews and limited availability of services, with the aim to stop spread of COVID-19 at the community level. In addition to travel restrictions, strict imposition of international trade restrictions and movements of raw material exacerbated the adverse impacts at a range of scales -from local to globalon both production and trade (Laborde, 2020; FAO, 2020). Due to widespread labor shortages (both local and migrating workers alike) a significant impact of these lockdowns in different parts of the world will be on food-related activities such as the timely seasonal production and movement of raw agricultural and livestock products. The potential outcome is a perceivable impact on J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f 6 global food supply. Due to the uncertainties of synergistic, or worse, cascading, effects of COVID-19 on food supply (availability) and associated components of food security (Figure 1) , countries are likely to respond in the form of stock procurement, protectionism and international trade restrictions. Potential factors likely to affect macro-level food security and progress towards SDG-2 targets in the context of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic COVID-19 therefore represents an unprecedented public health crisis, which has triggered significant economic slowdown, threatens food production and has the potential to result in global supply shocks. These effects, along with unilaterally imposed trade restrictions in major producer countries may have significant repercussions for food security in trade-dependent nations. These impacts could affect global supply chains through 2020 and beyond. In this Perspective, we hypothesize that potential production shocks and trade restrictions due to COVID-19 will decrease per capita food (cereal) supply in often vulnerable, import-dependent countries ( Figure S1 ). We assume that synergistic drivers of supply and demand, including COVID-19 with other externalities, are likely to impact international food trade. We highlight potential The top ten major exporting countries account for 70% of the global cereal export and 45% of global cereal production ( Table S1 ). The USA is the largest exporter of cereals, accounting for about 16 and 18% of the share in world cereal production and export respectively. Although China is the largest producer of cereals in the world (21% of global cereal production), it is one of the top ten cereal importers at the same time. Production shocks and trade restrictions on key players in global food trade will have particularly significant impacts on import-dependent countries. In 2020 alone, COVID-19 induced economic recession is forecast to cause a 24.8% decrease in agri-food However, the range varied markedlyfrom 38 to 1447 kg/person/year from the Central African Republic (minimum) to Denmark (maximum) (ESM Table S1 ). Denmark and the USA both have above 1000 kg/person/year domestic cereal supply while most countries from sub-Saharan Africa had cereal supplies of well below 160 kg/person/year (Figure 2a and ESM S2) . 37 countries had above the world-average cereal consumption, which reflects increases (in 50 countries) and decreases (in 87 countries) after adopting Scenario 1 (grouped as Class I and Class II, respectively in Figure 3 and ESM S4). For description of methods for scenario generation, see ESM S1. Under scenario 1, where domestic cereal supply was above global average consumption in 12 Class III countries, this subsequently dropped, worsening their food security. Domestic cereal supply dropped below global average consumption in 24 other (Class IV) countries before and after scenario 1. 36 developing countries (15 from Africa, ten from Latin America, six from Oceania, four from Asia and one from Europe) showed a decrease in domestic cereal supply under scenario 1, falling into Class III and IV (Table J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f 9 balance (ESM S4-S7). Although major producers of cereals (Class I) saw increase in domestic cereal supply, COVID-19-induced trade restrictions could have severe impacts on agricultural income and GDP in those countries due to reduction in international trade. Class II countries were seen as resilient to supply shock; although their supply decreased, cereal consumption remained well above the global average. Class III and IV countries (36 developing countries) were identified as the most vulnerable to cereal supply shocks, and particular attention should be given to secure their food security during 2020 and beyond i.e. better achieving SDG-2. (Table S1 ). In most of the countries with a below world-average cereal supply threshold, the supply is highly likely to decrease further with scenario 1, worsening their food security. An HTML version of the interactive plot with country names is included in ESM S4-S7. Note: See ESM S1 for class descriptions and analyzed data; Total countries considered in the analysis are 175. However, due to missing data, the total of all classes in the respective commodity group is equal to or less than 175. J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f Universal access to sufficient quantities of food produced sustainably is key to better can be classified as transitory food insecurity (i.e., short-term and temporary). Transitory food insecurity is relatively unpredictable yet can be both sudden and chronic (long term/persistent) (FAO, 2008) . The 2020 Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC) (FSIN, 2020) reports that ~135 million people in 55 countries and territories analyzed (more than half in Africa) were experiencing acute food insecurity in 2019 (i.e., before the COVID-19 crisis hit). One of the major responses of countries across the world to the health crisis is to prioritize ensuring their own food supply (ITC, 2020); this is expected to threaten global food security, but disproportionaltely impact food import-dependent countries most prone to the effects of trade restrictions. In response to this, FAO announced an Advisory (FAO, 2020) for countries to resist imposing pre-emptive export restrictions as a typical policy response to the health crisis, as this risked an associated food crisis. By 2030, the cereal commodity composition of food consumed by the developing countries is estimated to be 159 kg/person/year (global average 160), and cereals for all use is estimated to be 254 (329) (Alexandratos and Bruinsma, 2012) . However, the countries identified as highly J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f 13 on reducing poverty (Sumner et al., 2020) , directly affecting progress towards achievement of SDG-2. COVID-19 is causing severe disruptions in local to global level food supply chains in a way that our globalised world has never before experienced. Although the pandemic and associated direct and indirect impacts assessment are characterised by complexities and uncertainties, the scenario-based analysis provided here gives insights into implications for global food security in the form of changes in the components of food balance. In this analysis, the majority of the developed world is predicted to be resilient to food supply shocks. Although major producers of cereals show increases in domestic cereal supply, COVID-19-induced trade restrictions could have severe impacts on their agricultural income and GDP due to reduction in international trade and prices. Our analysis shows import-dependent nations (mostly developing countries) to undergo decrease in domestic cereal supply under modelled trade restrictions. These are the nations most vulnerable to cereal supply shocks. African countries are the worst prepared for the pandemic (McCarthy, 2020) . Several of these are already experiencing chronic food insecurity and could face a food crisis as a result of cascading effects of COVID-19 (both within J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f 14 countries and at regional levels). Responses made by governments to prevent the spread of the disease within these countries are likely to further disrupt their food supply chains. Therefore, particular attention should be given to secure their food security during 2020 and beyond. Investments in relief and humanitarian assistance are likely to be necessary to help to mitigate the worst effects of the pandemic. At the same time, longer term initiatives boosting households' purchasing power and encouraging diversification of trade options should be given priority in different governments' public policy agendas. J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f Ebola (Ebola Virus Disease): Cost of the Ebola Epidemic An Introduction to the Basic Concepts of Food Security. Rome: EC -FAO Food Security Programm Trade Policy Briefs: Agricultural export restrictions Agri-food markets and trade policy in the time of COVID-19 Coronavirus: Food Supply Chain Under Strain : What to do? Retrieved 05 02 Food Security Information Network (FSIN). (2020). Global Report on Food Crises 2020: Joint Analysis for Better Decisions 2019 Global Hunger Index by Severity COVID-19 Temporary Trade Measures: Temporary trade measures enacted by government authorities in relation to COVID-19 pandemic rapidly spreading across the world Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production The Countries Best And Worst Prepared For An Epidemic. (Statista) Retrieved 05 02 Institutional framework and administrative systems for effective disaster risk governance-Perspectives of 2013 Cyclone Phailin in India Food Export Restrictions: Review of the 2007-2010 Experience and Considerations for Disciplining Restrictive Measures Estimates of impacts of COVID-19 on global poverty