A Confutation Of the ten great plagues, Prognosticated by JOHN DOLETA from the Country of Calabria, to happen in the year of our Lord, 1587.  
AT LONDON, Printed by Robert Walde-graue, dwelling without Temple-bar.   

The Epistle to the Reader.  
NO marvel (friendly Reader) though predictions Astrological are at these times & seasons, so little esteemed or nothing regarded, considering that the impudency of most writers herein is such, that to gain them a credit, or get them a name by writing, they force not what they put in print, as appeared by the publication of a work, a few years last passed, concerning this matter and is at this present especially to be seen, by the late jest of Doleta, sent from Calabria: so far from any grounds Astrological, as the same seemeth merely prophetical, and therefore doubt not but that the Author will prove himself Ex numero Prophetarum Achab: whose follies and fantasies, if I happily disprove (as the fruits of an imaginary head & idle brain) I trust you will somewhat bear with me therein, for that coming lately Ex Anglia, and holding of S: George, I could not but encounter with the Dragon of Calabria, hoping that the only mighty will give the victory to the verity.  
Thine to use, T. R.   

¶ A Confutation of the ten great Plagues and Calamities prognosticated by JOHN DOLETA, from the Country of Calabria.  
FOr as much as this matter touching the end and consummation of the world shortly to hap, hath been not long since amply handled, & sufficiently debated: & of other thoroughly answered and confuted: I think it needless to spend any time upon Doleta, concerning the same, and so much the rather for that he neither showeth reason of his own, or authority of others, for the maintenance thereof, but barely saith (if you please to credit him) that the best Astronomers of Alexandria, Spain, Italy, & Grecia, are of the same mind and opinion with him using the writers of the said places like Mummers in a mask rather to make a show, then to speak a word, in that he neither nameth the said Authors who they are, nor quoteth their testimony what it is: but they that are hitherto known to have written thereof, utterly disagree & descent from Doleta, in the determination of the said fatal or Climacterical year, they accounting the same to be in 1588. but he in 1587. and neither of them with any great reason for the maintaining thereof, for when their reasons are at the best, they are but Sortilegious, Arithmetical, and Pythagorical: rather then Natural, Philosophical, or Astronomical, depending Ex septenario & novenario numero, & ex numerorum paritate & imparitate, wherein some of the fonder sort, have reposed such confidence, that they thought it very material (having occasion to use Physic) rather to take five pills then four, seven then six, and think that the foure-leaved grass, ratione numerorum, should be good for the quartain ague, or as a three-leaved grass for a tertian, & sic de caeteris: which opinions for that they are most childish and ridiculous in the judgement of the learned, I need no longer refutation thereof, but will proceed to the answering of Doleta his fatal predictions, as touching the ten great plagues, or calamities like to happen (as he saith) in the said year, foreshowen by a Star (as he saith) seen in Calabria: which how true it was, the man and matter will sufficiently declare. For admitting it to be the fourth Star by him seen, then must it of necessity follow, that either there were three other therewith, or seen before the same, which doubtless were of such small light & bigness, as they could not hitherto be discerned of any except of Doleta who happily saw further into a millstone then an other man, else was it the fourth of the nine sorts of Comets (if so be there were any) remembered of the learned in their works whose names are these following, Veris Cenaculum Partica, Miles, Dominus Asconae, Matutina, Argentum, Rosea & Nigra, the fourth whereof being Miles (construing his meaning to the best) could not be of much less bigness than the Moon, as Guido alleging Ptholomy, thus writeth thereof, Cometa illa, que dicitur Miles, est de natura veneris, & est magna, admodum Lunae, & habet radium longum & crines similiter, etc. And therefore of sufficient light and bigness to be seen of other men as well as of Doleta, and to other Countries as well as to Calabria, had there any such appearance been. And before the prediction thereof, it had been first requisite he should have mentioned when it first began to appear, in what Asterisme and constellation was his apparent and true place, with what sign and degree it made his revolution, what his Altitude Meridian, his right Ascension, what Paralax it had, what Circled it described, what distance it had from the earth, the bigness of his Diameter, the content of the , the length of the Tail, which way it was extended: and lastly how long it was seen, and when it went out, which if he had done (as other learned men have heretofore upon the sight of a Comet) then would I have said that he had proceeded orderly and like a scholar, and have been ready to have given the better credit to the rest.  
But to the first where he saith, In the year 87. when the Moon shallbe in a watery sign, that the world is like to be in danger etc. And the Sun shallbe covered with a Dragon, from five a clock in the morning, till nine, and will appear like fire, therefore it is not good for any to behold the same, least unhappily he may lose his sight.  
The Moon to be in a watery sign is nothing marvelous, sith that in each Lunation, which is the space of twenty eight-days, she thrice passeth through watery signs, making in the same no Deluge, nor working no such effect, when as the rest of the Planets were placed in the like signs with her, a thing happening not long since, considering that the watery Trigon or triplicity is worn, his force decayed, & ready to make an end, and beginneth to yield over to the fiery triplicity, at hand to enter etc. And to the rest, that the Sun shallbe covered with a Dragon, if he understand by the Dragon, Caput, or Caudam Draconis Lunae, the learned know that it is but an imagined intersection of two Circles or lines, the one called Circulus eccentricus, the other Linea ecliptica noni Orbis, without any bodily substance, and therefore can neither darken the sun, or turn him into fiery colour, having in itself neither quality to heat or to cool the same. But in case his meaning be rather that junonius Draco shall leave his seat between the two bears, & cross the Ecliptic, in Via solis. That in reason is more absurd, unless he prove unto us, that the Dragon must come down from the 8. Sphere to the fourth, where the place of the Sun is, or the Sun climb above the starry firmament, whereas the said Asterisme is, which well he cannot before Ascension day, which is long after the 25. day of March, or else the said Asterisme cannot possibly overshadowe the Sun, obscuring his light. And it is no way to be feared, that a terrestrial Dragon (were there any, as Gelnerus maketh great doubt) shall fly so high, or bear a body of that breadth and bigness, that it should overshadowe the whole body of the Sun the space of four hours, the said body of the Sun being more than 160. times bigger than the whole earth: for in what part of the earth should first be fostered a Dragon of the said bigness, not in Alexandria, Graecia, or Arabia, nor else where, unless in the dizards of Calabria, from whence only such marvels do come.  
To the second, touching The marvelous great water-floodes, upon our Lady day in Lent, the 25. day of March, by fear whereof many people shall die. Being no reason showed hereof, it may be thought, that Doleta through the overmuche moistness of his brain, dreameth of inundations and floods, unless the Moon, being then Prope urnam aquarij & effusionem aquae, he inferreth the same. And the same Floods to exceed, especially, in Calabria, where no doubt, than Calaber-furres will be dear, for that the Calaber-skinns will be most drowned, which may cause some lamentation in the Budgerow in the Winter following.  
To the third, which is, There shall arise a marvelous great wind, for fear whereof, many shallbe consumed, or distraught of their wits. This prediction is very general, he telleth us not what wind it shall be, nor out of what quarter it shall come, it is not like to be the sweet Zephyrus or Subsolanus, nor yet the blustering Boreas, that can blow from Calabria, over all the world, or cause these inconveniences by him recited, wherefore he doubtless meaneth, these winds engendered in Microcosmo, as Colica passio, Vteri ac Ventriculi inflatio, capitis vertigo, and such like which may mar and consume many a good stomach, and dull, amaze, or distract the wits and senses of the Parties troubled therewith, either else he meaneth, the wind caused through the continual motion and agitation, of the wings of the Calabrian Dragon so much mentioned.  
To the fourth which is, The 12. day of may, will arise an other wonderful great Flood, and so great, as none the like since Noys-Floud, and continue three days & three nights, and many Cities and Towns standing on sandy grounds will be in great danger. Two great floods within two months, that goeth hard, but if they be general, and throw down Cities and Towns in Calabria and elsewhere: Sheperton-Church, must needs be in great peril, for it is built upon sandy ground, and already in hazard. The best is, it must last no longer than jonas was in the whales belly, three days, and three nights, the reason of which prediction, happily is, for that the Sun principal Luminary obscured with his Dragon, at the same time will be in Longitudine cum Orione, which Orion, as the Poets affirm, was made Ex urina deorum, and therefore so much wet and moisture to abound: either else for that the beginning of the Rain in the time of the Deluge happened in the said month, now threatening the like.  
To the fifth, which is, Infidels and heretics for fear will fly and gather together, and a great part of Christendom in danger to be overthrown. That Infidels and Heretics fear, it is no harm, that they will willingly fly, it is not like: I am sorry he hath no better grounds to build his judgement on in this point. But the overthrow of a great part of Christendom is far unlike, for God hath promised to save his own, although he chasten like a loving father, and toward the end of the world the number of the elect are promised to increase, and the Gospel to be plentifully preached throughout all nations, & joyfully of them received.  
To the sixth, which is: After the great waters in the said year, on S. Margaret's day in the Dog days, will be a great and fearful death, for the pestilence will be in such force, that few places in Christendom will be free. And how is that like, insomuch that so great plenty of water going before, and cleansing and washing away the filthy sliminess, & uncleanness of the earth, the causes of unhealthfulnes and infection, as also his great & mighty winds dispersing the unwholesome clouds and ill vapours, and thereby clearing and preserving the air from putrefaction and corruption, the especial causes of pestilence, and like contagion, the heavens & heavenly influences threatening no such thing unless that he feared that this day through the virtue of the Saint, whose name it beareth, might end and destroy his Calabrian Dragon, for that S. Margaret is written to have destroyed the Dragon, & by reason hereof, such pestilent and corrupt vapours to evaporate and breathe out of the said Dragon's body so wounded and corrupted, which may fill and infect the air therewith, which dogtricke of his happening in the Dog days, as it may cause (when it happens) death and mortality, so will it again cause Sanguis Draconis to be very plenty, good tidings and joyful news to the Apothecary.  
To the seventh, which is: There will be through the world great change of Religion, and wonderful strange news unto all people as touching the same. This of all the rest is a most unlikely thing. For that toward the end of the world, Christ hath promised to increase the number of his elect, as also that his truth shall persever unto the end & in the end. Unless he mean the infidels shall be converted to christianity, and the heretics to recant their heresies, and acknowledge the gospel and verity, as by the prediction following it seemeth he meaneth no less, in that he saith, The Infidels shall fly unto the christians, & the Turk shall lose his sceptre. Which thing, although it seemeth strange, yet hath it been long of the faithful hoped, and is of all true Christians heartily to be wished,  
To the eight, which is. The Turk with his Mahomes shall lose his Sceptre, and a great change in his regiment through hunger and wars, so that most will rather seek help of the Christians, then at his hands. This is as ye would say, to good to be true. For how is it like that an Empire which hath been so long establishing, in one year to be overthrown. Well may it decrease, Peditentim as it were, but not suddenly overthrown (although God at his pleasure can destroy it) it followeth not that he will do the same: for he is called omnipotent, Non quia ommia vult, sed quia omnia potest, & a posse ad esse non valet argumentum, And means and not by again, he worketh by miracles in this age, I rather would wish that the Turk might be converted to the faith of Christ, then lose his sceptre. For in case he lose the same, and an egg harcht of the same bird succeed him therein, what availeth it to the profit of the Church, or comfort of the congregation of the faithful? And herein M. Doleta greatly forgetteth himself, where he saith that the Turks shall seek help at the christians, and before that the greatest part of Christendom shall be overthrown. But happily he careth not what he saith, be it never so contrary, so he may seem to say somewhat at all.  
To the ninth, which is: There will also arise great Earthquakes, and the fruit of trees will be very strange and hollow within. This is a thing possible, though not likely, and very hard for any to prognosticate, were he of much more sufficiency than john Doleta, declareth himself to be. For were he thoroughly opposed, I doubt he would hardly show the causes Philosophical and Natural of Earthquakes, and whereof the said Earthquakes are caused and engendered, in that his doctrine hath been so gross and palpable in the rest. And as for the fruits which shall be hollow within. I am persuaded he is moved so to think, for that (further reason see I none) because he seethe people so hollow hearted at these days, thinking that other fruits of the earth would produe accordingly. Either else that much fruit the said year will prove worm-eaten, & consequently hollow within, which thing is nothing strange.  
Lastly to the tenth, which is: On saint Bartholomews day, will be great movings of the earth, both on hills and valleys, for fear whereof few shall remain alive. This prediction of all other is most strange and unlikely, unless Doleta be of opinion with other some, that the Sun standeth still & the earth moveth about, and hills, and valleys as part thereof follow the same, and so fall or stumble into some of those degrees, termed of the Astronomers, gradus puteales, and to prove this conceit and opinion aforesaid, he may happily make so good a Demonstration, as I knew a young gentleman of like opinion, who sailing from London to Gravesend, imagined himself and the vessel to stand still, and the trees and firm land to move and departed from him: this ye see the force and fruit of a strong imagination, which with the rest I refer to your deliberate judgement, & good consideration. Else doth he happily mean the moving up of the earth, through the rooting of swine or casting of moles, which in truth may do much hurt, especially to the husbandman: I hope none other movings shallbe seen in this our Country, no more than any of the rest of his ten plagues presaged, and before mentioned: which as they were prognosticated without Art or learning, so shall they come to pass, Nusquam & Nunquam, and all men say,  Parturiunt montes, nascitur ridiculus mus. 
Thus having thoroughly viewed these news from Calabria, I wish all men to be resolved that as they are rashly published by the Author (a fellow of Brazenface College) & not like to come to effect, so would they not worse esteem of good Arts (whose commodities are great, & conclusions most profitable) when they are published by those that are (in truth) learned therein, and of zeal and good meaning deliver them to the worker, the rather when they see these predictions which the blind-Baiards and the unlearned in astronomy set forth altogether with out effect, as hath of late (too often) been seen, which I pray God almighty at his pleasure to amend and long to continue the happy and prosperous estate of our dread & sovereign Lady the Queen's Majesty, granting her to have such loyal, and obedient subjects as may joyfully, and willingly follow and observe all such wholesome, & profitable Laws as her Majesty and her honourable Counsel shall direct & appoint them, whereby it may be justly verified. Quod corpora inferiora reguntur à superioribus corumque sequuntur motum.  
He that shall live in the year 85.  
And in 86. no hindrance sustain:  
But in 87. remaineth alive,  
And in 88 is unhurt and unslain:  
If in 89. no loss make him sad,  
Hath he not cause think you to be glad?  

The Conclusion.  
THus (Christian Reader) having sufficiently disproved these frivolous news, I would not have any man to think that it is my meaning to persuade the world to sleep in security, and that we have no need to be vigilant to watch and to pray with all humility: Either else, that there is no tokens of God's wrath threatened for sin, the contrary whereof, would evidently appear, if we did but look into the common manners of the people. For never was there seen such excess in apparel, chief in the meaner sort, never such pride in all degrees, never such cove tousnes in the rich, such extortion in the wealthy, such usury, cruelty, disloyalty, whoredom, theft, idleness, envy, malice. So that a man may boldly say, the weather is not at this season so cold, but Charity is twice so cold. All which are manifest tokens of Gods heavy displeasure even at hand which partly we feel by this bitter dearth without need, through out all the land. A fatherly scourge surely for our iniquities, especially for neglecting our duty to God and our Sovereign, whose health is our safety. Therefore it is high time that we fall to hearty repentance, the only salve against sin, after the example of the great city Niniveh. And then undoubtedly God will turn from us all those plagues which the signs of heaven shall at any time forewarn us of, being the sure tokens of his love and favour toward his Church and chosen, as well as of his wrath and vengeance against the wicked, whereof the greatest Cities, and mightiest Nations in all ages can bear witness: Which well may put us in mind of his almighty wisdom and eternal providence, which in the beginning established the heavens, causing them to move with such harmony and constant regularity, that from time to time, they might foresheey not only the natures and inclinations of men, but also the great mutations of times and the subversions of Countries, wars depopulations devastations plague, Pestilence, famine, and infinite other miseries which he keepeth in store (against all such as either wilfully, or negligently forget him, or oppose themselves against his word and will) to whom be all honour and glory, world without end, Amen.  
FINIS.