Breakthrough – Championship Living in a Computer Age

 

 

Background

Dr. Richard Byrne was the Keynote Speaker at Bio'76, which was the combined meeting of the Association of Medical Illustrators (AMI), the Biocommunications Association (BCA), the Health and Science Communications Association (HeSCA), and the Association of Biomedical Communication Directors (ABCD). His presentation was powerful, and was filled with his technical insight, personal reflection, and comedic wit.

 

In 1985, Dr. Byrne produced a cassette tape series of twelve professional lectures, which defined what he called, "Breakthrough." The concepts presented in his Breakthrough series are universal and are applicable today. In conjunction with Dr. Byrne's wife, Mary Anne Byrne, the Journal of Biocommunication has included all 12 of Dr. Byrne's original "Breakthrough" lectures, the final four appearing here in JBC 46-2.

 

The following article is the ninth presentation from this "Breakthrough" series. It has been transcribed from a cassette series produced by Richard Byrne in 1985. Some of the content has been edited from the original transcription text in order to provide clarity or context to the reader.

 

 

Dr. Richard Byrne

 

The Age of Uncertainty

Paul Valéry is a French, symbolist poet who once wrote, "The problem of our times is that the future is not what it used to be." I think that's where we are! Remember when you used to know how things were going to turnout? I mean, this is the way it was, and this is the way my mom was, and this is the way my grandma was, and I'm going to be like this, but a little more so, or a little less so, or something like that.

 

We used to be pretty clear, we'd say, "I want to be a fireman, I want to be a pilot, I want to be a nurse." Even though those were sexist roles and inappropriate, at least we knew what they were. We knew how much they got paid and what they wore and where they lived.

 

Well, what about the future? What is the future going to hold for you? And for me, what kind of companies are going to appear? What kind of technologies are going to appear? What kind of new discoveries are going to be made about the human being, about the mind, how the brain works and about bodily parts that can be replaced. What is the future going to hold? Well, I'll give my view. My view is that we create the future. We create it. It's not out there. It's not out there already just to be foretold; we make it up as we go along. What's important about the future is not what's coming; it's what we want and need.

 

You know the dispute about announcing exit polls at the end of an election? The television interviews people and they say, "Well, at eight o'clock in the morning, Candidate X is going to win because we interviewed three people in Vermont and so he's the one who is going to win." People get crazy, because that actually influences the future. Not only do they say it, but it becomes real. Now what we need to do is to start saying the things that we want to have, become real.

 

Let me tell you about several theories of the future. One of my favorite, I call the garden hose theory of the future. It is sort of like the future is out there and somebody has turned on the water in the garden hose. The water's coming at you and you are looking through the hose with your eye. You can see it's coming at you; it just hasn't got here yet. It's coming like the train coming down the tunnel. This is why if you go to a fortune teller and you say, "Please tell my fortune," and they respond, "You're going to meet a tall person and go to Cleveland." That's the garden hose theory of the future. If you believe in that theory, it really doesn't matter too much what you do. What matters more is what is done to you. You say, "Boy, I wish I knew which computer to get because I don't want to look like a boob! I hope I get a good one! I'll buy this one and take it home, I hope it turns out to be right!" No, no, no. You have to be the one to make it turn out to be the right one. It doesn't matter what you use; you get it, you use it and you make it right for you. If you believe the garden hose theory, it says that it's really not in your control; it's all predetermined.

 

The second theory is related, but different. Instead of looking forward, it looks back. This is called the snowshoe theory of the future. Snowshoes look like big tennis rackets, and they let you be able to walk across the snowfield. The snowshoe theory of the future is as if you stop in your tracks in the snowshoes, turn around and look behind you and say, ""Let's see, that's where I was, uh-huh, and here's where I am." Then you turn around and draw a straight line out and say, "Well, this must be where I am going." You look at where you were and where you are and you draw a line. It's called trend extrapolation. There were 200 computers, now there are two million computers, pretty soon there will be 200 million computers. Take the way you were, and the way you are, then draw a line between them, and that's the way it's going to be. Not true. Not true. A person on snowshoes can turn to the right. They can absolutely stop in their tracks, change their mind and turn to the right. I see people doing it in their lives all the time. They have been stuck in a rut for 35 years, because there has been a barrier that's kept them from breaking through. They suddenly say, "Wait, wait, wait! I'm going to break through this." They break through and immediately turn to the right or the left and change their behavior.

 

There's a third theory of the future that I call the expert theory of the future, meaning you ask the experts. I always dread it. Sometimes people introduce me and they say, "Richard Byrne is about to speak, he's an expert!" I shake my head to the audience, no, no, no, no! No, listen to me, please! I'm not an expert, I'm just a guy, because experts get together and share their views.

 

If you asked 20 experts how soon every person in America will have his or her own personal computer, ten of them will say, that will happen in 1990, while others say that will happen in the year 2000. Add it up, divide it in half, and say, it will happen in 1995. It's an average of all the experts. It is like the third grade class that had a kitten wander in the room and they couldn't figure out if it was boy or a girl. They each looked really closely, but they couldn't tell, so they voted and declared, "This is a boy kitten!" Well, that's the pooling of knowledge from experts.

 

There is a reason to ask questions of experts, and the reason is that experts frequently know why something won't happen. They may say, "Well, it certainly can't happen for three years because we don't have any parking meters, and it'll take three years to get the parking meters ordered." There are reasons to ask experts. For instance, right now, at this point in time, there are only 50% as many ten year olds as there are 20 year olds. This means that in ten years, there will only be half as many people who are 20 as there are right now. That's an opinion that an expert can give you. That's called a future fact. It's something that's going to happen in the future that we already know. Many people go to the experts and they say, "What do you think? Is the computer revolution real?" One expert will say, "No," and everybody says, "Oh no, I thought it was, Richards said it was. I'm here to tell you that it's real for me because this expert does it." You can listen to experts, that's fine. You can make popcorn, you can watch TV, do whatever you like, but experts will not determine the future.

 

Now, let's take a look at you, because I believe you're the one that's going to create the future for you. I think you have three futures in front of you, and not these theories. Not the garden hose, not the snowshoe, not the expert. There are three futures in front of you. Let's assume you could take a piece of paper and put a dot in the center of it. That's where you are. Intellectually, spiritually, socially, economically, personally, or whatever. That's where you are. I'm sure you know that none of us knows where that is. Do you know where you are? I don't know where I am and we don't know where that is, but we're sort of here. I've got a job and I'm married and I have kids, and it is sort of where I am.

 

Now, let's suppose way up above that you put a dot and you say, "I believe the future is going to be very, very light. There's the dot. It's going to be light! We're going to have freedom and autonomy and we're going to be able to move and have mobility and so forth." Then somebody else says, "No, no, no, no, I believe it's going to be tight; lots of control and lots of government and computers are going to run our lives." So, way down below the dot, you put another little dot. That's called tight.

 

Next, go way over to the right hand side of the page and put a dot, and let's say that's going to be your big boom! "In the future, it's going to be a successful boom, I'm going to have a lot of money, have a car, and have a computer. It's going to be fabulous. Boom!" Somebody else says, "Huh-uh, no siree!" You put a dot way over on the left hand side of the page, it's called doom! You're not going to have a boom, you're going to have a doom! It's going to be awful! You're going to lose your computer, and then lose your house and go broke! I'm sure you could see that you could add a whole ring of dots.

 

You could say it's going to be very expensive. Somebody else says, huh-um, it's going to be real cheap! You could say it's going to take a long time to learn, others say, huh-um, it just takes a minute. You see how you could draw many dots around that center point of the way the future might be?

 

Now, let me tell you the three futures. One is called the probable future. What is probably going to happen? When I ask that of groups, they almost always say, "Well, it'll probably be about like it is, but a little more so. I mean, there'll probably be a little freedom, but probably cost a little bit." In other words, there's a little circle right around that dot, right around where you currently are. Very limited. Even the word, "probable." Listen to the way people say it. There's a lot of huffing and puffing in it. They say, "Well, it'll probably be like this," but nobody says, "Hey, I think it's probably going to be fantastic and I'm probably going to be successful, famous, rich, and happy!" They don't say that! The word "probable" and "unbelievable success" are almost contradictions in terms. People may say, "I'll probably get it done, but it probably won't be great." You see, probable is always very limiting. It's a little confining circle around the "now."

 

What's possible? Well, anything is possible. For instance, is it possible that the world will come to an end before this tape ends? Now think. Is that possible? The answer is well, yes. It is possible! It could happen! We could collide with a meteor or something and all die before the tape is over. Now, are you going to plan your life based on that possibility? Probably not. Are you going to base your life on what's possible? Probably not. You see, "probably" is limiting again. Now, what is possible is everything you conceive of, everything you can think of. What are the possibilities for your life in the future? What are the possibilities for you as a manager? As a parent? As a lover? As a husband? As a wife? The possibilities are almost limitless if you get rid of the probable. Once you get outside that little fence, you can really consider the possibilities.

 

The key is not what is probable or what is possible, it's what is preferable. That's the third one. What is preferable. In this field of possibilities, you draw a circle around the things that are preferable. That is, do you want mobility or do you want stability? Do you want to eat gourmet food, or do you want to lose a lot of weight? You see, if you want both, then you have a do a little trick, like a high wire act. It's eating the wonderful food, but just little tiny bits of it, because you can't lose weight and eat gourmet food. You have to balance it. You have to trade off one preferable characteristic for another preferable characteristic. Once you draw that circle, you know what you really want, and you've really looked at what's possible, then all you need to know is how to make dreams real. You need to know how to make dreams real.

 

The future is just a potential. It's a potential and we can actualize it. We can design it. We can summon it by what we say and what we do. What you say, is what tends to become real. The more you say it the more the universe hears it. It is like if someday you want to have a home at the lake, you have to tell people that. I've heard people talk about their goals. They have what I call ghost goals. They're phony goals. You can always tell by the tone of their voice, "Someday I'd like to have a home at the lake." To which I say, "Good, how big of a house do you want?" Then they reply, "Oh, I don't know, but I'll know it when I see it." I say, "Well, do you want indoor plumbing or outdoor plumbing? You want a boat dock? How big a boat dock? I mean, do you want a fence, do you want a driveway, what do you want? I mean, what do you want?" They say, "Oh, Richard, it's sort of hard to say, but someday I'll see it and then I'll know." Phony. Alarm bells go off for me. I think, get out of here! See, that's the way you beat yourself up. You have a goal that can't be attained. You have to write it down, 'I want a home on a lake, I want it to have at least 1,000 square feet, and I want a 16 foot boat dock, and I want a parking structure.' Then you tell all your friends, tell everybody. They'll call you in about 20 minutes, and say, "I can't believe this, I was just driving by, I saw this house! I mean it's your house! This is it!" But if you don't tell the universe, the universe can't tell you.

 

In this computer age, as you break through, as you attack these barriers, they may be personal, they may be social, they may be intellectual, so you're going to have prepare. One of the key acts of preparation is what I called context. Context. You have to be in the now, be in the present and be in the future at the same time. It's kind of like a card trick. You have to hold on to the reality of the present and hold on to the reality of your vision, your dream, at the same time.

 

Let me tell you what the problem with that is. A lot of people are broke and they want to be rich. They say, "Someday I'm going to be rich" and then they look at where they are and they say, "But I don't have the rent and I'm broke," and all of a sudden the dream just vanishes. The bubble pops. You have to be able to say, "Someday I'm going to be rich and I don't have the rent so I need to go do something!" They both have to be delivered in the same tone of voice.

 

Alan Lakein, the guru of time management, said he could always tell if someone had the potential to be a millionaire, because they could embrace their current position and their intended position at the same time. They can talk about both, in the same tone of voice.

 

A perfect example of bridging the now and the then is a trapeze act. You've all seen a trapeze act. When you hold onto the first bar, that's called the now. When you keep holding onto that the first bar, the crowd begins to jeer at you because it isn't a trapeze act, it is just holding onto the bar and swinging. The people will say, "Uh, you know, we got to clean up soon because the elephants are due, so you want to move along?" You've got to let go of the first bar to get to the second bar. Furthermore, if the bars are close enough, so that you can hold on to the first bar and the catcher can then grab your feet while you're holding onto the bar, and then you let go and swing, that's a pretty lousy trapeze act. You would get paid about $8 for that routine. But stretch the bars apart a little bit so that we increase the void. The void between the now and then? We put a little more space in there, so that you can let go and leap 20 feet. Hey! Now they give you $80, $80 for that stunt. Stretch them apart a little further still, and raise them up so you can now do a double somersault out in the void. You can do more in the void because there's actually more void. That's when they start paying attention to you. There's one young trapeze artist now who is successfully throwing the quad, a quadruple somersault. He lets go, and he makes four complete revolutions before being caught. We are talking superstar trapeze work here! This is called hanging out in the void! The reason people love this, the reason they flock to see him perform, first of all, there is risk involved. He doesn't make it every time. There are times when he tries, and falls down into a net. He does not do the quad over a hard parking lot. There's genuine risk, because it's almost impossible to do it. So you see, here's a human who is testing the outer edges of the envelope. This guy is going for it! He doesn't make it every time. The second thing is that it is so creative. You look at him, my gosh, how did he think he could do that and how did they do it the first time?

 

So, the key to our success in this creation of the future.... well, it's not where we are. It's not even where we want to go, because many people get their goals and then find out that they're not happy. They get married and they have children, they have the car, and now they're looking for something else. So it's not the goal, and it's not where you are; it's the creativity that you can express while negotiating the void, while you go through the risk to get from here to there.

 

How creative can you be? Go for the quad (a figure skating term referring to the quadruple jump). As you plan how you will use computers, as you design a new way of working in the future, hang out in the void. Be willing to be uncertain, be creative, make it up as you go along and maybe you, too, will be booked in the center ring.

 

 

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References

Byrne, R. Breakthrough - Championship Living in a Computer Age (Audio Cassette Series), Springboard! 1985. (This cassette series is no longer available.)

 

 

About the Author

The late Richard Byrne was a former professor and dean at USC's Annenberg School of Communications. He was known for making computers less intimidating for all of us. In 1982 Dr. Byrne founded one of the first consulting firms of its kind, called Springboard! His company was devoted to acquainting executives with high technology. As president,Dr. Byrne traveled as far as Europe and Thailand presenting as many as 200 lectures a year. He enlivened complex computer terminology with humorous wit and common-sense explanations. Dr. Byrne, who had previously taught at the University of Wisconsin and the University of Texas, left his position as a full-time professor at USC in 1984 to devote himself to an increasingly lucrative lecturing career.

 

Licensing

The late Mary Ann Byrne had chosen to license this content under a Creative Commons Attribution, NonCommercial, NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Conflict of Interest Statement

The Journal of Biocommunication Management Board and Editors believe that transparency in academic research is essential. Our JBC authors are now required to disclose any possible conflict of interest when submitting a manuscript. In accordance with the Journal of Biocommunication's editorial policy, no potential conflict of interest has been reported or declared by Dr. Byrne's estate.

 

 

Acknowledgment

The Journal of Biocommunication wishes to acknowledge the late Mary Anne Byrne, who before her own death, had graciously allowed us to publish the content from her late husband's recorded lecture presentations.

Dr. Byrne's portrait was provided by Mary Ann Byrne.