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Ma;3s, plates, charts, etc., may be filmed at dif; jrent reduction ratios. Those too large to be entirely included in one exposure are filmed beginning in the upper left hand corner, left to right and top to bottom, as many frames as required. The following diagrams illustrate the method: Les cartes, planches, tableaux, etc., peuvent dtre fiimds d des taux de reduction diff^rents. Lorsque le document est trop grand pour dtre reproduit en un seul clich6, 11 est film6 d partir de Tangle sup6rieur gauche, de gauche d droite, et de haut en bas, en prenant le nombre d'images n6cessaire. Les diagrammes suivants illustrent la m^thode. 1 2 3 1 2 3 4 6 6 ,r ..^f" '->^li V •; # •it- Statistics of [xpenditure and Consumption in Canada. By prof. JOHN DAVIDSON, M. A., Phil. D., FREDERICTON, N. B. From the Transactions of the Nova Scotian Institute of Science, Vol. X, Session iSgS-gg. » . IMB'i, f'«ii.'fwjjf.>^fm>'mmmffs^n..wm im^ii***m','>^Wrir^ll}'IVf-W \ ."» / I. — Statistics of Expenditure and Consumption in Canada, — By Pkofessor John Davidson, M. A., Phil. D., Fredericton, N. B. (Read Nov. Uth, 189S.) The ultimate test of a nation's prosperity is the quantity and quality of the goods it contains. Other tests are relative and indicate business activity rather than national welfare. All wealth is produced to be consumed, and the whole process of production is carried on for the benetit of the consumer. For him there is seedtime and harvest ; for him the factories and the stores are run ; for him railroad and steamship lines operate, and banks conduct their business. It is conceivable that the volume of business may be larf prosperity then it does for a people which spends seventy per cent, of its income on food. In the latter case it means that the people are rising fiom the lowest class, where the necessaries of life absorb the greatest part of the income, to a condition where other considerations are becoming important; in the former case it may mean a change in the form of consump- tion only. This aspect of "the question has some immediate practical importance. In the discussion of the financial aspects of prohibition, little attention has been paid to the fact that not all the expenditure of the Canadian citizen is on taxable goods. Prohibitioni.sts claim that the fifty million dollars annually spent upon intoxicants will necessarily be spent on other articles, and that the o-overnment need not confuse the issue by dark sugges- tions of direct taxation; for consumption will not be reduced, but simply changed. But, though the .same amount will still be spent, it does not follow that it will be spent in such a way as will provide a revenue. In so far as it is spent on food, there would be an increased consumption of food-stuflis on which, while the consumer may be paying a tax in the shape of enhanced prices, 4 STATISTICS OF EXPENDITURE AND due to protection, the rifovernment may realize little or no reve \ue ; while in so far as it is spent on education or on better house accommodation, the government would gain nothing what- ever to make up for the revenue from the taxes on beer and spirits. No doubt, there would be increased expenditure on clothing ; but the percentage of income spent in Canada is but 17 ; and the tax is already as heavy as it can be to be productive of revenue. Probably seventy-five per cent, of the changed con- sumption would yield no revenue whatever. The investigation of expenditures has been carried so far that certain empirical laws have been established. It may 415 417 418 424.7 210 2:11 2:{() 214 231 $70 81 81 m $41 41 lis m $10.15 12.89 ]:^.4:{ 1:^.89 45.7(» 47.74 :i8.05 City ok Kingston. 1880 1887 1888 1889 Average. $409 45:i 482 379 440 293 2(5(5 280 244 271 $70 70 70 m 42 41 31 $18.12 12.91 18 92 22.28 City ok London. $43.90 '43! if)" 49.63 1880 $425 270 $73 1887 421 265 70 1888 4:^ 208 77 1889 431 244 (50 Average. 428 2(51 $40 40 40 37 $17.(50 15.58 18.59 15.91 City ok Ottawa. $4.5.03 50.:-») 47.31 46.54 1880 $52:^ 1887 :^5 1888 mo 1889 440 v^erage. 403 188(5 487 1887 480 1888 520 1889 474 Average. 492 305 223 228 $ 81 97 71 110 $34 32 37 City ok TcmoNTo. 272 $ 92 246 112 270 121 2(52 110 203 $40 41 45 89 $21.90 1()..52 13.14 11.94 $:i5.40 30.55 35.15 $23.96 I $54.32 10.93 I 47.92 15.87 45.62 16.67 50.89 CONSUMITION IN CANADA— DAVIDSON. lul. DATS OF Laiior ^wkmsary to Pkocurk Pkroint AORH OK INCOMB Kxi'RNDIH ON ciothiiitr C\oth\ag Kent. Fuel. . »"-T. Food. Rtiit. Fuel. per Food. Minilv. ' Family. Hamilton. im] '.m 19 :^ 128 17 18 i'7 1HS7 45 2:i .S5 124 ' 19 i 1'"' 50 IHHS 4.-) 21 1 '^^ 128 19 1 f\ 15 55 1H81) .52 22 •Al 108 21 1 15 42 Aver. 44.5 21.2 3(J 118.2 19 : 15.7 51 KlN(>HTON. 1H8(J 44 22 52 124 i 15 7 18 48 1887 41 25 ;r> 15 15 .... 1888 40 2:{ 46 105 14 8 16 HH 1881) 45 20 58 127 1 18 8 24 52 A ver. 42.5 22.5 47.7 118.6 15.5 I 8 18.2 44.3 Ottaw. V. 1 1880 47 19 (n 128 15 6 20 40 1887 .5:i 18 82 10(i 28 8 14 49 1888 .^2 16 :i4 124 14 8 15 5;^ 1889 (54 19 89 1(K) 25 8 14 49 Aver. 49 18 42.2 115.5 19.2 7.5 15.7 47.7 Loxuoj i. 1886 46 25 5^1 141 17 9 20 48 18S7 41 25 48 141 16 9 16 50 1888 47 24 .58 107 17 9 19 40 im) H7 20 44 180 15 8 18 .53 Aver. 42.7 22.5 49.7 12{).7 1(5.2 8.7 18.2 46.5 TORONT 0. 1886 51 22 .58 148 19 8 1 20 50 1887 51 21 .8(5 107 28 8 17 48 1888 62 16 84 124 23 8 14 57 1889 61 21 87 98 2:^ 8 14 49 Aver. 58 20 40 117 22 8 16.2 49.7 8 STATISTICS OF EXPENDITURE AND ■! ! \\ ( For purpo.ses of compaii.son, however, the corresponding figure.s and percentages for the whole number of towns taken together, and for the whole province, are more useful ; and suit our purpose of international comparison better : — Province of Ontario. Earnings. Days of Lfibor. Rent. Fuel. Clothing per Head. Food per Head. 1886 1887 1888 1889 Aver. $451 449 479 467 462 270 257 269 272 267 $76 82 77 81 $40 37 41 $20.8:^ 15.85 17.41 17.10 $42.:^0 44.37 42.76 44.14 Days Labor Necessary to Procitre Percentages of Income Expended on 1886 1887 1888 1889 Aver. Rent. 1 Fuel. 1 1 Clothing per Family. Food per Family. Rent. Fuel. Clothing per Family. Food per Family. 45 45 41 47 44.5 24 22 20 23 22.2 57 41 46 46 47.5 91 91 115 122 105 17 18 16 17 17 8 8 7.7 8.8 8.1 21 16 18 17 18 33 35 43 44 39 The average of the averages of the five cities above may be placed beside the provincial average (taken from returns made by artisans in the smaller towns and villages) : — Earnings. Days La- bor ill year. Percentages Expended on Rent Fuel. Clothing per Family. Food per Family. City average, 1886-89 Prov. average, 1886-89 $451 462 256 267 18.4 17 8.3 8.1 17 18 47.8 39. The results thus obtained are in substantial agreement with the results established under greatly varying conditions in CONSUMPTION IN CANADA — DAVIDSON. 9 Europe and America, as the followinpf tabular comparison shews. The table is taken in part from Schon berg's Handbuch and in part from U. S. Labor Repoi ts : — Percentages on Great Britain. Prussia. Ontario. 39.0 Massachusetts. Illinois. Food' .51.36 .50.00 49.28 41.38 Clothing 18.12 18.00 18.0 15.94 21.00 Rent 13.48 12.00 17 19.74 17.42 Fuel 3. .50 5.00 8.1 4.») 5.63 Sundrie.s. .. 13.54 1,5.00 18.9 10.73 14.57 These percentages are all calculated from working-class family budgets, except in the case of Prussia, where a family of intermediate class was taken to give gross incomes of something like the same amount. The i ial measure of well-being probably consists, at least for men of the same race, in the amount which may be expended on the vague class of sundries ; and in this comparison, Canada comes out well. The shewing would not have been so favorable had we taken the average of the five cities, for then it would have been 8.5 percent of the income only. The question of the value of these returns is almost settled by the large degree of correspondence between independently reached results ; but the Provincial Statistician. Mr. Blue, was at the trouble to meet the objection that, to say nothing of the conclusions based on them, the figures themselves were untrust- worthy, by carefully examining the food expenditures of various public institutions. The force of the objection is that while most householders can tell how much they spend on rent and fuel, and perhaps also on clothing, they can make a rough estimate only of the household expenditure on food. Mr. Blue went into the matter exhaustively and examined the food accounts of colleges, Bsylums, military barracks, etc., and embodied his conclusions in A paper read before the American Public Health Association, and reprinted in the Ontario Bureau of Statistics Report, 1886, in which he says : — 10 STATISTICS OF EXPENDITURE AND " Now let US see how the cost of food, as computed from the working men's returns, compares with its cost in the schools and colleges and public institutions. At the average of summer and winter returns in these, it is $44.17 {,'per cap.) ; at the prison's rate it is $.S5.51 ; at the asylum rate it is S47.12 ; at the infantry- school rate it is $54.75 ; at the college winter rate it is $59. . . . . The working man's average, $47.67 per cap., is therefore something more than a probable one ; it is well verified by sta- tistics gatliered from other souroes, and I am disposed to think that the cost of living is better known and more accurately gauged in the families of the working classes than in the families of any other class in the community." .... We are jnstifiad, therefore, in accepting the average budget based on these returns as represbntntive of the actual expendi- ture of some hundreds of working men throughout Ontario. It is true, no doubt, that men capable of intelligently making such returns arc likely to spend their incomes more rationally than others of their class : but the extravagances and waste of the less prudent and thrifty in part offset each other, and must for the rest be neglected. We may assume, therefore, that in the Prov- ince of Ontario 39.0 per cent, is expended on food, 18.0 percent, on clothing, 8.1 per cent, on fuel, and 17 per cent, on rent ; or if we take the average of the 4 year averages of the five important towns as our standard, 47.8 per cent, on food, 17 per cent, on clothing, 18.4 per cent, on rent, and 8.3 per cent, on fuel. These percentages are not without meaning even as an indi- cation of absolute well-being. The smaller the percentage expended on food and subsistence the larger the total provision for the wants of our nature. Here and there an individual may be found who stints himself of the imperious necessities of life to obtain some coveted comfort or luxury ; but the great majority satisfy the lower wants first and rise to the higher if sufficient provision is made. Conset[uentl3^ the smaller percentage in Canada expended on food is an indication of a higher well-being. But it is necessary to investigate still further to find the degree of well-being and to present quantities rather than percentages. « * CONSUMPTION IN CANADA — DAVIDSON. 11 What value does the average Canadian receive in food, house accommodation, fuel and clothinn^ for the percentages of income thus expended ? This is not a question of prices, but of weights and measures. Prices are of importance only as they indicate whether an increased or decreased consumption of any article is due to a change in price or to an increased command over the goods of life. The increased consumption of tea and sugar, for instance, is due to the fall in price ; but the increase 1 consump- tion of coffee, in so far as it is not simply a transfer of taste from one article to another, shows an extending margin of consumption. An increase of consumption due to a fall in the price of an article does not necessarily mean that the cilizens are better off. Their real wages and incomes have risen but their money wages nT\y be constant ; but an increased use of an article whose price has not fallen indicates an increase of money wages and a more extended command over the floods of life. It is not possible, unfortunately, to enter into a detailed examination of the absolute values received in each class of expenditure. In the case of rent and food, we are able to present some of the more important items ; but fuel and clothing remain indefinite. The item of fuel is the only one which takes a higher per- centage in Canada than in any other country. The cause is not an enhanced price, but the fact that a larger (juantity must be used. The amount of fuel consumed per head of the population is unascertainable. Fiom the mining statistics and the tables of trade and commerce, we can estimate how much coal, bituminous and anthracite, is used ; but how many of the people of Canada use coal? Probably the majority of the population do not use it in any form ; even in industry coal is not always used ; and it is in the larger cities only that coal is used exclusively. The quantity of wood consumed as fuel is not ascertainable ; and since the quantity varies according to the house and according to the habits of the individual, no estimates, even approximately cor- rect, can be made. 12 STATISTICS OF EXPEXDITURE AND i' M iw 'i ! f i Whether, under the head of fuel, lighting is also included, as it usually is in the statistics of other countries, is not stated ; but the omission is not of serious importance, becauso we are unable to discover how much the individual spends and what value he receives for his expenditure. The three chief illuminants, gas, electricity, and oil, are being used in increasing quantities. The Census Reports of 1891 give figures for the production of gas and electric lighting works ; but there has been a very great extension in the use of electric lighting since 1891, and possibly some increase in the use of gas also ; and figures taken from the Census Reports would give a wrong impression. It is interesting to note that in spite of the increase in the use of these methods of lighting, the consumption of petroleum is increasing steadily year by year. The urban population of Canada (those residing in towns and villages of more than l,oOO inhabitants) has increased from 912 984 in 1881 to 1,390,910 in 1891 ; or from 21.1 per cent, to 28.77 per cent, of the population of the Dominion ; and the number of towns of more than 3,000 inhabitants which may be taken as the minimum for which gas or electric lighting is provided, has increased from 08 to 94. Gas lighting held its own during the decade 1881-1891, and electric lighting was prac- tically introduced in the decade (in 1881 there were two men employed in electric lighting works ; in 1891 there were 1,190;) yet the consumption of petroleum increased per capita more than fift\' per cent., although there was no corresponding decrease in the retail price. In 1882 the consumption was 2.0 galls, per head, in 1891 it was 3.2 gall ., and in 1896 3.1 galls, (a decrease from 3.5 galls, in 1894 and 1895). The increased use of the more primitive illuminant, alongside of the development of the more modern methods, shews a real increase in well-being in the community. The expenditure on clothing must remain in the obscurity of percentages. It might be possible, by help of the Census Reports and the trade tables to determine how much cloth and clothing was manufactured or imported in the year 1891 ; but it is not possible to shew how much was consumed. Trade tables CONSUMPTION IN CANADA— DAVIDSON. 10 d, as but able he The gas are trustworthy only when they extend over a nunnberof years^ and speculative influences can be discounted. An alteration in the tariff, for instance, may affect the imports for a given year, as it did in the case of sugar, and strictly an average of several j'ears ought to be taken. The census year is no more likelj' to escape such fluctuations than any other year ; and it might be seiiously misleading to take the manufacture and importation of textiles as typical. Moreover, there has not as yet been estab- lished in the matter of clothing any standard of consumption as has, in a measure, been done in the case of food. Caprice and local climatic causes have here an undue influence. All we can say is that in Canada the average family spends on the average $83.79 on clothing, the family expenditure in the United States being $112.23 ; in Great Britain, $80.59 ; in Germany, $57.21 ; in France, $72 60; in Belgium, $84.61 ; in Switzerland, $65.38*. The statistics available for the further analysis of the expen- diture on rent are not sufficient for the purposes of comparison either of classes or of different periods. With the exception of some interesting sociological studios of a portion of the city of Montreal by Aid. Ames of that city,t we have the Census Reports alone to rely on ; and the Census Reports of 1881 offer but a very meagre amount of information. The Ontario tables quoted above shew that on the average in the province of Ontario the respectable working classes spend 17% of their income in rent. Since there is comparatively little class distinction in Canada, we might, perhaps, assume that 17% represents the proportion spent by the average Canadian on house rent. In the city below the hill in Montreal rental absorbs, according to Mr. Ames, 18% of the earnings : — " For families of the real industrial class 16 per cent, is a fair average. . . It is among the well-to-do and the very poor that rental is permitted to absorb fiom 20 to 25 per cent, of the earning.s." The City Below the Hill, p. 40). Mr. "■U. S. Commissioner of Labor. Report 1891, Vol. II., pp. 8G4-5. t (1) The City Below the H 11 : privately printed. (2) Incomes. Wages and Rents in Montreal (U. S. Department of Labor, Rnlletin 14, Jan. 1?48) ; and a lectnre on House Accommodation which I have been privileged to see in manuscript. 14 STATISTICS OF EXPENDITURE AND 'i i Ames, in a letter in answer to some queries made, has further explained that the last sentence refers only to families with an annual incoine of ^1000 or less. " My experience, he adds, has gone to prove that rental consumes from one-Hfth to one-third of the income of the very poor. Then the proportion is Report, 1S!)1. 1 CiTV. Vancotiver Winnipeg. St. John. . . Halifax . . . Toronto. . . London . . Kingston . Hamilton.. Montreal . Quebec . . Ottawa . . . (5.1 .5.(5 (5.0 7,4 5.5 5.1 4.0 5.1 5.7 7.5 5.6 I'KHtKNT.MiH OK TOT.M. NlMliKli OK HOISES WITU liOOMS I I'ersons 1 I to a ]' House, i i(5.2 (5. 0.7 (5. i().02. 10. 1 1, lo.l 0.11. !o.7 1. o.olo. '0.4(5. 0.5:5. '0.2'2, ti-la U 15, Overt 4 and | 10 and 8.71 S.Oi 7.0; 2. 1! 2.0 2.0, 3.1 3.0| 14.0i O.J) 3.7' 14.8; 15.4 10.0 8.0 0.0 10.0 10.4 0.4 24.4 18.1 13.8 1().0| 45.8 1.0; 13.0 50.8 3.5 11.1 15.1 1.5.2 10.0 04.(Sl 10.2 11.0 (5(5.1 0.7| 17.0 00.2 5.1 1(5.+ 50.7 5.0 10.2 (51.7 5.2 ' 10.4 33. 7 i 8.01 i 0.5 40.5! 11.4i ' 15.0 53.1' 8.8 1,1 1.0 L7 5.1 n 1.8. 1.2! 1.0 2.0 5.2 2.1 les more. 30.3 30.0 19.9 12.2 13.2 14.2 22.3 13.1 45.0 34.2 19.0 3.2 5,2 20.3 12.3 8.4 (5.9 (5.2 0.2 10.0 1(5.0 10.9 With the exception of four cities, Vancouver, Montreal, Que- bec and St. John, more than half of the population live in houses containing from 6 to 10 rooms ; in the case of Toronto the per- centage rises to 66 per cent; while in three others, Halifax, London and Hamilton, the percentage exceeds GO. Those cities 16 STATISTICS OF EXPENDITURE AND ! i- i which shew a low percentage of houses containino; 6 to 10 rooms, per house (which gives souiething more than the standard nccomujodation of one room one person) shew generally a high percentage of houses of four rooms or less, and also of houses of more than 10 rooms. Thus, in Montreal, 45.6 of the houses are oi 4 rooms and less ; Quebec, St. John, Vancouver, Winnipeg and Ottawa, also give high percentages of liouses of rather less than the standard accommodation ; and with the exception of Van- couver and Winnipeg, where the poor accommodation is, as we shall see, due to the newness of the cities, the same towns shew a high percentage of large houses of more than ten rooms. Montreal has a percentage of 10.0 ; Quebec, 16.6 ; Ottawa, 10.9 ; and St. John, the astonishing percentage of 20.3. Halifax is the only other city where the percentage of large houses reache.s double figures. If we combine the results of the last table and recognize three classes of hou.ses only, those of 4 rooms or less, those of 5 to 10 rooms, and those with more than ten, we .shall see at a glance where the conditions are extreme and where the .arithmetical average expre.sses the truth of the situation : — 4 rooms or less. Vancouver AVinnipeg . St. John . . . Halifax . . . Toronto . . . London . . Kingston . Hamilton . Montreal. . . Quebec . . . . ()ttawa 5 to 10 rooms. m 19, 12 i;i 14, 22. i:i 45, 'M. 11). 55.8 6:^8 56.2 64.6 78.0 78.1 67.1 80.9 44.1 50.0 68.7 More than 10 room,s. 3.2 5.2 20.3 12.3 8.4 6.9 6.2 6.2 10.0 16.6 10.9 It appears, therefore, that class distinctions are marked in three or four towns only: in St. John, Montreal, and Quebec, and possibly in Ottawa ; that the three best hou.sed towns where there are few extremes of wealth and poverty, are Toronto, London and Hamilton — which, with Kingston and Ottawa, m ■ CONSUMPTION IN CANADA — DAVIDSON. 17 where also the conditions do not show violent extremes, are the five towns selected from the Ontario Bureau of Statistics Reports for detailed analybis. It is probable that the very large percenta(:;e of large houses in St. Jchn is an indication, not of a larjre wealthy class, but of lack of nrudence and foiesijjht in the inhabitants in the years which follov^ed the great fire. We might therefore conclude that in two towns only, Quebec and Montreal, do the extremes of wealth and poverty show them- selves ; and that the average condition is also the condition of the great majority of the inhabitants of Canada. We might, perhaps, also conclude that the average income obtained from the returns made to the Ontario Bureau is not far below the average inconie in Canada. Mr. Ames shows that in the district he has investigated there is a weekly average income of SlO.20 per family, an average monthly rental of $8.73 per family, or 18 per cent, of the family income, and an accommodation of 5.02 rooms per family (U. &. Bulletin of Labor, p. 44 . The average weekly income of the towns in Ontario is nearly S9.00, of which 17 per cent, is expended on rent in places where rents must be much lower than they are in industrial districts of Montreal, and where accordingly better accommodation will be given for the money. We may readily infer that the returns have been made by the occupants of houses of 7 or 8 rooms ; and an overwhelming pro- portion of the inhabitants of the towns, of which an analysis of the house accommodation has been made above, occupy houses containing from 5 to 10 rooms. Since, according to Engel, and according also to the best canons of local taxation, the expendi- ture on house rent is the best indication of income, we might be safe in concluding that the average income set down above is the average for Canada ; but at the best the conclusion is problematic and based on a series of assumptions and inferences from data which are themselves only approximately correct. The main question is the actual accommodation obtained fon. .'I I ii. ii ii! ?i!ru t.n..)i i IS STATISTfCS OF EXPENDITURE AND the expenfliture, The best test, perhaps, would be the cubic feet of air space obtained for a given rent.* But statistics arc lacking in Canada to determine the actual space received in return for the payment made. There may be more actual air space in a log cabin or a dug out of one room in the North- West and British Columbia than in a three or four roomed house in a back tenement in Montreal ; and the general sanitary conditions are without doubt superior. Mr. Ames has taken the provision of water closets as his test, and shews how a smaller house with sanitary conveniences may rent for as much as a larger without them. But his investigation was confined to a section of Montreal only. For the rest of the city, and for the Dominion as a whole, we must rest content with a less satisfac- tory test, viz., the number of rooms, the material of construc- tion, the number of stories, the number of families in each house, and the number of persons to a house and to a room. The average house in Canada is constructed of wood, is of one story, or a story and a half, contains probably from 5 to 10 rooms, more likely 5 than 10, and accommodates under its roof 1.08 families, or 5.6 persons, and thus gives the standard accom- modation — one room one person. The standard of accommodation is rising. In 18S1 there were 1.10 families under each roof and 5.8 persons. The one story house seems to be going out of fashion, for while 39 per cent, of all the inhabited houses are one story buildings, more than 50 per cent. (23,227 out of 40,000 classifiesolute their the rich districts lionablc i>ii berg's Wooden houses constitute 81.0 per cent, of the total number ; brick houses 15.34«, and stone houses 3.1. The brick and stone houses are probably mainly in the larger cities and occupied by the wealthier classes. Thirty-nine per cent, of the total houses inhabited are of one story, while 43 per cent, of the wooden houses are of that humble size, and 1!) per cent, and 20 per cent, only of the brick and stone houses fail to reacii the dignity of a second story or even of an additional half story. The story and a half and two story buildings are 57 per cent, of the whole, but 60 per cent, of the stone and 67 per cent, of the brick houses are of these dimensions. Of the houses which have three stories or more 14,211, or .59 per cent., are brick, 4,658, or 19 per cent, are stone, and 5,746 only, or 22 per cent, are of wood. The Census Reports do not enable us to discover whether there is a larger number of rooms or of stories in a stone or brick house then in a wooden house. Probably, the advantage in size is in favor of the stone and brick houses ; but there is no definite information on the subject, and we must rest content witli the statement given in the Census Report, 1891 (Vol. IV'., Table A., pp. 378, 379) of the percentage of houses of dili'erent sizes in the several provinces of the Dominion : — Perckntages ok HoisEs WITH Rooms Ok Hoi ses with Stokiks— 1 2.9 2 8.0 3 11.0 4 5 «M0 48.8 U-15 5.(5 Over 1.5. 1.2 1 3 . 1 Canada 1.5.8 12.2 («.5! :«.o 2.5 0.4 Br. (Johimbia . . 21.1 i:^.{j 10.2 18.5111.4 25.9 2.0 l.() 72.4 2 cost no more than the 2C lbs. of sugar and the 2.7 lbs. of tea in the year 1880. The increased use of tobacco, of coffee, and the but slightly decreased consumption of spirits, in spite of a large rise in price, indicate a larger spending power. An attempt has been made in the third of the following tables to indicate how far the increased consumption is due to a fall in prices, the price.'j being taken from a table of Montreal prices given in the Statisti- cal Year Book of 1806. Consumption Pkk Capita ok Certain Articles in Canada. Tea Coffee Su^ar Dried 1 Beer .Spirits Wine Tobae- Cigars (No) (lbs) (lbs.) (lbs,) Fniits(lbs). (gals.) (gals ) (gals.) co(lbs)- 1880 2.7 0.40 26 19 2.25 0.71 0.08 1.94 1881 3.8 47 31 .3.0 2.29 0.92 0.10 2.03 1882 4.3 0.71 30 3.4 2 75 1.01 0.12 2 15 1883 4.0 0.60 34 5.0 2.88 1.09 0.13 2.28 1884 3 8 0.53 38 5.2 2.92 1.00 12 2 48 i9 1885 4.0 94 43 4.1 2.64 1 13 0.11 2.62 17 1886 4.9 0.85 38 3.6 2.84 071 Oil 2.05 20 1887 38 0.41 43 4.2 3.08 0.75 09 2.06 18 1888 37 0.60 43 4.5 .3.25 0.64 0.09 2.09 19 18S9 36 0.66 47 4.6 3.26 78 0.10 2 15 19 1890 3.8 0.66 35 4.7 .3..% 0.88 0.10 2 14 20 1891 3.7 0.69 40 4.S 3 79 0.74 0.11 2 29 20 1892 4.4 0.73 68 4.7 .3. ,52 0.70 0.10 2.29 21 1893 3 6 077 51 4.4 3.48 74 0.09 2.31 23 1894 4.1 70 61 .5.3 3.72 0.74 0.09 2.26 23 1895 4.0 0.72 70 5 2 3 47 0.67 0.09 2.16 21 1896 4.4 0.70 47 5.6 3 53 62 O.07 2.12 21 These tables are sufficiently clear to explain theuKselves ; but it should be observed that for some rea.son the year 1880, which has been cho.sen as starting point, is an exceptional year of low con.sumption, as we .shall see more clearly when we come to present an Index No. of consumption ; and it has the additional disadvantage of being the year of high prices in sugar, which was then 20 per cent, higher tlian in 1875, and higher than it baa been since. n STATISTICS OF EXPENDITURE AND It would be interestinjy to compare the consumption of the different provinces; but there are no statistics available for such a comparison. Mr. Johnson, in his Graphic Statistics of Canada (1886) has shewn the relative provincial consumption of wine and beer, and spirits and tobacco, in a i^raphic form ; and from his repre.sentation we learn that on the average of 19 years to 1886, «ach inhabitant of Ontario drank 1. 11 gals, of spirits, 0.4 gals, of wine, and 8.2 gals, of beer, and smoked 1.8 lbs. of tobacco ; and so on for the other provinces as in the accompanying table: — Pek Capita CoN,« Beer (gal.) Wine (gal ) Tobacco (lbs.) Ontario 1.11 1.6S 3 2 19 0.4 0.28 1.8 2.4 Quebec New Brniiawick . 80 0.66 08 2.17 Nova Scotia O.fl.S 0.7 07 17 P. E Island 0.0-2 0.46 0.03 1.4 Manitoba 68 1.7 0.06 2 6 Brit Columbia . . 1.45 3 77 0.62 3 In all proliability this proportion holds in 1898 as in 1886; and Mr. Johnson's conclusions are still true : — " Ontdiio drinks nearly three times more beer than spirits ; Quebec, nearly as much spiiits as beer ; New Brunswick, more spirits than beer ; Xova Scotia, more beer than spirits ; Prince Edward Island, more spirits than beer ; and Manitoba and British Columbia, more beer than spirits," p. 86. To which we might add that, according to this shewing. Prince Eilward Island and New Brunswick are the most temperate of the provinces.* *The consumption of s))irits in the Maritime Provinces and in Quobeci'^ probably greatly untlerestimatod. The figures above slicw only the consumption on wliichduty was paid ; but tliere lias always been a large amount smuggled into these provinces from St. Pierre which exists ))ractically as an entrepot for smuggling. Probably lo/lOths of the imports of the island are smuggbMl into Canada and Newfoundland. In 188-5 the amount intended to be smngglcd exceeded that proportion. It is said that half the spirits and tobacco consumed in Quebec pays tio duly. Since 1890 the import trade of St. Pierre has fallen oOjjer cent, in consciiuence of the increased activity of the Cana- dian revenue cruisers preventing the us\ial exports. CONSUMPTION IN CANADA — DAVIDSON. 20 It is, unfortunately, not possible to compare the quantities consumed of the articles enumerated with their retail prices ta ascertain exactly the relation betvA'een prices and consun)ption. Where prices have fallen, it is generally assiimed that the whole- sale prices have fallen further and more rapidly than retail prices, though, in the case of suoar, all but the very poorest who may buy in very small quantities have benefitted to the full extent of the fall. Where prices have. risen, retail prices may have risen higher than wholesale, or not so far, uccordinir to ciicumstances. Tobacco has probably risen higher in retail price than in whole- sale ; but the dealers in ciixarettes last vear were not able to raise prices to follow the wholesale price. The following comparison, however, is with Montreal wholesale prices as stated in the Statistical Year Book. 1896:— CoSSUMrXUlN AND PRICES. Coffee .Srci AK. Tf A. Tobacco. SiTKITS. y - •/ 1 — ■/ « X ^ .«£ ^ c£ 1 £ c£ .2 .£ — - .|S ? YEAK ^ » "■w - 1 '^. r. ^H ■^— J ^^ be O.'C ta ^^ i u Q.rS 1. PL'S ^ fts' u 5 ^ V u •" s u STee s C " o ft S 2 ' ft c 1 ft S a ft C O ft rr ■"* 9, CC . o c u tT* o C ^ u f" *^ s b. o _o ii u _o 1880 Oft .4 £ 1- c 2 a. 'E ^ 5- 0. 27 cts. 2G lOicts 2.7 51 1.94 54 cts 0.71 §1 50 1881 .47 25 31 lo' 3.8 52 2 03 ooi 0.92 1.60 1882 .71 23 80 H 4.3 51 2.15 57 i 1.01 1.60 1883 .6 22 34 9 40 51 2.28 47' 1.09 1.60 1884 .53 21 38 Ti 3.8 51 2,48 •.3i 1 IK) 1.60 1885 .94 20 43 4.0 51 2.62 51 1.13 1.67 1886 .85 19 38 U 4.9 49 2.05 53 0.71 1 81 1887 .41 24 43 m 3.8 43 2.06 51 75 1 81 188.S .6 25 43 n 3.7 45 2.09 51 64 1 81 1889 .66 26 47 8 3 6 45 2.15 .)1 0.73 1.83 1890 .66 26 35 m 3 8 45 2.14 ■)1 0.88 1.84 1S91 .69 27 40 6 1 3.7 42 2 29 53^ 0.74 2.48 1892 .73 29 68 4.\ i *•* 39 2.29 56 C70 2 88 1893 .77 29 fl ^-h 3.6 38i 2.31 544 0.74 2 53 1894 .7 28 61 4A ; 4.1 384 2.26 53^ 0.74 2 51 1895 .72 27 70 4 4.0 1 35i 2.16 56 67 2 51 1896 - .70 26 47 4?t 4.4 1 1 33^ 2.12 56 0.62 2 68 ■\ 30 STATISTICS OF EXPENDITURB AND From this table it appears that though the price of coffee has not declined the consumption has increased 80 per cent., shewing at once an increased desire for coffee and a larger spending power in the community. Tliis is probably a real increase in the con- sumption of the nation and not a transfer of taste ; for cocoa and tea, the substitutes for coffee, have also been consumed in increased amounts, and there has been no such diminution of consumption of alcoholie drinks, for which coffee may be regarded as a substitute, as would set free such an amount of consuming power as would purchase the additional quantity of coffee. On the contrary, although the consumption of spirits has declined somewhat (18 per cent, since 1880), more is being spent on spirits to-day per head than in 1880. The price has increased 78 per cent., and had the consumption moved downwards at the same rate as the piice moved upwards, the quantity used in 1896 should have been 44 per cent, less than in 1880. The decrease, instead of shewing a diminution of consumption power, indicates either an increase of money to spend or a growing desire on the part of the people for spirits such as would lead them to transfer their taste to alcohol fioni some other article. In face of the temperance sentiment of the country, it is improbable that the desire has increased, and we may safely conclude that the relation between consumption and prices of spirits indicates increased consumption power. The slight increase in the consumption of tobacco (11 per cent.), in spite of a rise in price, points to the same conclusion, viz , that the nation is growing more prosperous and has a larger income to expend. On the other hand, the increased consumption of tea and sugar justify no such con- | elusion. They, of course, indicate a higher level of general well- being, but not an increased consumpcion power on the part of the community. They afford no evidence against such an increase of income ; they simply do not afford any evidence in its favor. The consumption of sugar has increased almost in the same rates as the price has declined. The consumption of 1895 has risen 168 per cent.; the price has declined (1S95 price) 62 per cent. The consumption has ri.sen just 5 per cent, more than the decline of I CONSUMPTION IN CANADA — DAVIDSON. 81 price warranted — if the community was to continue to spend the same money per head in 1805 as in 1880. Tea, however has not increased so much as the price has declined. The consumption is 48 per cent, greater than in 1880, hut the 1895 price is 35 per cent, lower than the 1880 price. To preserve the same expendi- ture of income on this article the con.sumption should have ri.sen 54 per cent., or 6 per cent, more than it has risen. From this comparison of consumption and prices it is evident that there has been not only an increase of well-being due to the larger quantity of these commodities used, but an increase of consumption power as well, and judging fiom the instances before us, an increa.se of consumption power of considerable extent. We can carry the investigation a little further, to find out, so far as figures can tell us, how far the well-being of the community has increased. The most obvious method of esti- mating this increase is by constructing an index number for consumption. Into the problem whether a permanent index number of consumption is possible, it is not necessary to enter; the following attempt is intended only as a method of illustra- tion, not as an indication of cause. It is the more important to state this liinitation, as the year 1880 was, as the table shews, a year of very low consumption — a fact which was not apparent to the writer till this calculation, the last made for this paper, was made. So long as the result is not used by politicians for partisan purposes, and is regarded merely as a summary of the earlier table, it does not matter much which year is taken. The method of construction was to take the seven articles — tea, coffee, sugar, dried fruits, spirits, beer and tobacco — as typical of the consumption power of the community, and to take the quantity consumed per head in 1880 in each case as equal to 100 --the sum 700 being taken as the index number of the consump- tion of that year. The articles are, of course, not all equally important, and therefore it must be repeated that the index number is intended for purposes of illustration only : — . 32 STATISTICS OF EXPENDITURE AND CONSUMPTION— DAVIDSON. u r* I Index Numbkr of Consumption in Canada. 1 Year. 1880 Tea. 100 Cotfct). Sugar. Dried Frultn. Spirits, Tobacco. 1 Boer. 100 T'l Index Number. 100 100 100 100 lOO 700 1881 140 117 119 159 129 106 101 871 1882 159 177 115 178 142 113 122 1006 1883 148 150 130 210 153 120 128 1039 1884 140 132 146 273 141 131 129 1092 1885 148 235 163 215 159 1.37 117 1174 1886 181 212 146 189 100 107 128 1071 1887 14(» 102 163 221 105 1(18 136 975 1888 137 150 163 23'3 90 110 144 1030 1889 133 165 180 242 109 113 144 1086 1890 140 1«5 134 247 124 112 149 1071 1891 137 172 153 252 104 120 168 1106 1892 1(52 , ir2 261 247 98 120 156 1226 1893 133 192 192 231 104 124 • 154 1130 1894 151 175 234 278 104 118 l(i-2 1222 1895 148 180 268 273 1 94 113 154 1231 1896 167 175 180 294 ! 87 111 155 1169 The year 1880 is evi(iently not an average year, an<3 there were probably trade infiu^nees at work inducing a small importation. And it is to be r ^marked that the figures on which these index numbers are originally based are figures of trade and not of consumption. In order to attain something like strict accuracy by eliminating the effects of anticipatory importations to avoid a threatened tax, and such like influences visible in all trade returns, it would be necessary to make the consumption for each year the average of a period of three or four years — thus the figures for 1886 would be the average of 1884, 1885 and 1880 ; the figures for 1887 the average of 1885. 1886, 1887. But such exactitude would be tedious, and the process might be liable to the objection that it sought to attain a greater degree of accuracy than the nature of the subject admits. Within the limits set down this index number illustrates the steady growth of the national prosperity and well-being— a movement not uniform or without backward steps— but none the less indicating that the command the nation has over the material sources of satisfaction has increased. r