US D 101 . 121 :997 BISO THE ARMY BUDGET 1997 President's Budget Assistant Secretary of the Army for Financial Management and Comptroller March 1996 AMERICA'S ARMY: "Force of Decision" OCKWOGu -1u.1AR ,_____________ U_ IVERSITY AT BUFf-A -.iUL 0 8 1996 Changing to Meet the Challenges of Today, Tomorrow and the 21st Century CONTENTS Page.INTRODUCTION________________________ -_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1 STEP IA-Preliminary Analysis___________________________________________________________ 2 STEP IB--Basis for CSP: Establishing Planning Factors and Policies__________________________ 6 STEP IC-Gerieral Shelter Allocation______________________________________________________ 11 STEP ID-Specific Shelter Allocation______________________________________________________ 13 STEP II-Emergency Information Readiness (EIR) _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 18 STEP III-Identification of Shelter Deficits_________________________________________________ 19 STEP IV-Procedures for Development of Shelter___________________________________________ 20 STEP V-Directive(s) for Updating Local CD Emergency Plans_______________________________ 23 STEP VI-Official Adoption or Approval of CSP __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 23 ANNEXES ANNEX 1-List of Terms Used in Community Shelter Planning______________________________ 25 ANNEX 2-National Fallout. Shelter Program______________________________________________ 29 ANNEX 3-Estimating Small-Area Population______________________________________________ 37 ANNEX 4-CSP Data-Reporting Forms and Their Use______________________________________ 53 I c Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2 URBAN PLANNER'S MANUAL FOR PREPARING A COMMUNITY SHELTER PLAN INTRODUCTION The procedures for preparing a Community Shelter Plan (CSP) described here are generalized so that they can be adapted for both small and large communities. The wide variety of urban areas throughout the country make it impractical to establish a fixed approach to CSP. Therefore, the planner will have to modify and extend the outlined procedures to fit his particular planning problem. This document is written for use by urban planners; and assumes a knowledge of city planning techniques, including competence in mapping and reproduction methods and small-area population analysis and projection, as well as a knowledge of planning data sources and their use. Planners should read part D, chapter 3 of the Federal CD Guide, as well as appendix D-3-1, before reading this manual. The manual is a step-by-step description of the process for preparing a CSP. The method presented here is a version of the urban planning process specially adapted to a CD problem. Steps IA through ID of the OSP process describe the preparation of a plan to utilize the best available existing protected space. Step II covers getting CSP information to the public. Step III describes work needed to identify shelter deficits; and Step IV describes preparation of a plan to alleviate these deficits. Step V covers the planning directive needed to base community readiness on the Step I shelter allocation plan; and Step VI includes local governmental approval of the CSP. This generalized approach should be tailored to fit the particular community. In smaller cities and towns, there may be opportunities to abbreviate the process; whereas in larger metropolitan areas there may have to be additions. It must always be borne in mind that the primary aim of the CSP process is to produce a workable and practical plan for the use of the best protection available in each locality, a plan which-because it is workable and practicalmakes sense to the citizens of the community and their elected representatives, and is credible to them. Secondary aims are to provide for the basing of local emergency plans upon the use of shelter, as well as for orderly procedures to meet local shelter deficits defined by the CSP. The description is represented graphically in the CSP process flow chart inserted as a fold-in to appendix D-3-1, Federal CD Guide. Essential activities and their interrelationships are indicated, starting at the left and moving towards the right in logical sequence. Theoretically, no activity can begin until the preceding phases are completed. The activities of the local CD office, the planning agency, and CE/BuDocks are shown in separate bands. Dashed lines indicate a coordinated activity; outlined boxes represent written report<;. Prior to undertaking the planning operation, a similar flow diagram that exactly describes the process for a particular community should 'be prepared. By writing in the time estimated to complete an activity on the line leading to the activity, the time for each phase and for the total project can be calculated. The total ela of policy. This step is analogous to the sketch maps or survey of existing conditions that a planner prepares initially to orient himself on a particular situation or problem. ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENT Base Maps A base map of the community, showing the entire area of the study, should be prepared if one is not available.1 If the area is very large, a scale of approximately 1 inch to 1 thousand feet may be suitable. To supplement this small-scale community base map, the planner may need a larger scale map of the central business district, and maps of other areas that have high population density or a concentration of shelter facilities. Large cities or metropolitan areas and communities where welldefined natural or man-made barriers exist should be divided into planning areas that take these barriers into consideration. The base rna p should be selected or prepared on the basis of the requirements that will need to be met later when the public information document is prepared. Physical Environment Maps and Aerial Photographs Since every community has a unique combination of terrain, land-use distribution, and transportation networks, each CSP will reflect the local features that will affect the movement of people to shelters. Consequently, to prepare the CSP, the planner should assemble all available maps and aerial photographs of the area that relate to land use, housing, population density, transportation, and topography. These maps will be used for analyzing movement-to-shelter problems, and for estimating and projecting population in small areas. Transportation and Barriers-to-Movement Map In preparation for the analysis of movement to shelter to be made at a later Step, a map should be prepared that shows all natural and man-made features that will impede civilian movement to shelter. These would include: (1) rivers, swamps, ridges, canyons; and (2) railroads, expressways with uncrossable fences, canals, large parks, airports, and fenced institutions or estates. Crossing points of these barriers, major transportation arteries, and street or open areas suitable for parking should also be indicated. ANALYSIS OF SHELTER AND POPULATION, BY STANDARD LOCATION (SL) 2 Shelter Location Map The location of each shelter facility with a protection factor of 40 or more (Category 2 or above) should be plotted on a reproducible copy of the base map, using the list of shelters (see fig. 2) prepared by CE/BuDocks.3 The base map prepared by the architect-engineer (A&E) subcon tractor (to CE/BuDocks) for Phase I of the NFSS can be used for assistance. The A&E base map, which will be supplied by CE/BuDocks, includes all buildings that were identified during the NFSS Phase I as having potential shelter space. This base map was prepared in 1962 and may therefore vary from later surveys in which some buildings were omitted because they did not provide standard shelter, and others were added. Mines, caves, or other "special facilities" should be plotted on the map, in addition to buildings which contain shelter. Each facility should be located and designated by ·a symbol, such as a circle, and identified with the last two or three digits of the five-digit facility code number. For public information purposes, it is useful to identify the facility by name if there is sufficient space. • See Annex 1 for definition of terms used in this manual. 1 Each map Includes a North arrow, graphic scale, date, name • Note that these shelter lists may be provided in computer ot locality, title, and identity of the CD agency for which the printout form. Until such time as printouts are available, plan Is being prepared. CE/BuDocks field offices will provide typed tabulations. 2 c List of New and Proposed Buildings To Be Surveyed In preparing the shelter location map, lists should also be made, if required, of (1) all recently completed buildings or other structures that have available shelter space; and (2) proposed structures that are far enough along in the planning stage to estimate the shelter they will provide. These lists will be submitted to CE/BuDocks for survey, if required by CE/BuDocks. In some cases, CE/BuDocks will already have commenced NFSS Expanded Survey/Updating work, and may have drawn up lists. "Where this is so, the planners should work closely with CE/BuDocks to assure that all recently completed or in-process buildings are surveyed. The results of these surveys, together with the results of the CE/BuDocks Smaller Structures Survey (SSS) , will be used later in the CSP process. Standard Location Tabulation Map The SLs should be identified on a base map by drawing in the boundaries and numbering each SL. These are identified on the A&E base map. They are generally coterminous with the 1960 census tracts, unless the community was not tracted by the Bureau of the Census in 1960, or the census tract crosses the boundary lines of a political jurisdiction. Any differences between the SLs and the census tract boundaries should be noted on the map for reference later when population analyses are made. Shelter Situation Maps To provide a basis for making a preliminary analysis of the shelter situation in the community, maps should be made of the number of shelter spaces as they relate to peak populations, by SL. SLs with insufficient shelter space are indicated by negative numbers; those with surplus shelter space are indicated by positive numbers. These maps will also be used for deciding basic policy matters, such as the number of allocations that should be made (day, night, season); and the areas that may require shelter of only PF Category 4 and over, as well as those where Category 1 (PF 20-39) space may have to be used. The maps are to be prepared from the tabulation shown in figure 1, as well as from shelter lists and Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2 other data, all of which will he provided by CE/ BuDocks.4 Both the peak daytime and the peak nighttime populations must be compared with the identified shelter space in each SL to determine whether population distributions should be con sidered for different times of the day in all parts of the community. The following maps (or overlays) of population vs. shelter should be prepared: Daytime, PF Category 2-8 Nighttime, PF Category 2-8 The maps are prepared using the information in the last two columns of the CE/BuDocks tabulation. The shelter deficit (negative number) for each SL is indicated on the map in red-the shelter surplus (positive number) in green or blue. A complete legend should be included on each of the maps. In all but the largest cities, there will be only a few SLs with a surplus of shelter space, mainly in the CBD. The shelter-population mapping by SL still is useful in getting a quick, generalized view of the situation. Estimates of daytime and nighttime peak populations can also be found in the NFSS Phase I printouts (or in the Phase II printouts if the SLs have shelter spaces) .5 These estimates were made by the local A & E firm that performed the survey. They were generally based on field observations or on the 1960 Census of Population, and have not been updated. For the preliminary analysis, these population estimates are suitable for making a gross estimate of the shelter situation. They will not be adequate, however, for the more detailed small area analyses that will be undertaken in Step ID of the CSP process. Street Capacity and Parking Area Maps Normal movement routes between areas containing excess and deficit shelter spaces should be indicated on a street map. Street widths, conditions, and number of available lanes should be • It may be possible to provide the data shown by figure 1 In computer printout form. Pending the availability of such printouts, CE/BuDocks field offices will provide typed tabulations. 5 For further Information on the use of the NFSS, see Annex 2 of this manual and the following OCD publications: NFSS: Report Formats and Descriptions of Conternt, Phase II, November 7, 1962, and NFSS: Survuy Marking and Stocking Reports Formats and Explanations, April 1964. 3 Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2 POPULATION -SHELTER TABULATION BY STANDARD LOCATION Date of preparation: -------- locality State Sl tabulation based on: (check as appropriate) D NFSS Phase IPrint~uts doted D NFSS Phase II printouts doted D NFSS Updating printouts dated ---------0 Oth_. (spec;ly) -------------- Political Jurisdiction SL Number Cap'y Chap. 3, App. 2 CSP, will not be allocated to public shelters, where there is a deficit of public shelter. • Where PF 20 to 39 space is known to exist in homes in specific parts of the CSP community, from EFPH results, persons with such shelter availa;ble and who are assumed to be home will not be allocated to public shelter of PF 20 to 39. • In the absence of better protection, people who cannot be allocated to public shelter, or who cannot be accommodated in shelter of known PF identified in their homes, will be advised to seek shelter in the best-protected parts of their homes. They will be provided instructions, based on CSP Step II work, on how to improve the protection afforded by their homes. The planning factors and policies above, relating to the use of available protected space, are reproduced on the report. form required on Steps IA and lB. (See Exhibit A-2 to the CSP contract, in annex 5 to appendix D-3-1.) Where space not meeting standard criteria is used, this will be clearly ndted in the tabulating records and on the working maps for the CSP, so that a true picture of the protection capability is presented. This will also facilitate revision of the Step I allocation plan when non-standard shelter is phased out. POPULATION DISTRIBUTION Daily population shifts will result in significantly different daytime and nighttime populations for most SL's. Moreover, there are pronounced seasonal changes in many communities as well. The relationships of the peak populations of the SL's to the number of shelter spaces will suggest whether there should be two shelter allocation maps (e.g., day and night), or whether a map based on the peak population in each shelter drainage area is more suitable. TIME AVAILABLE FOR MOVEMENT TO SHELTER OCD has provided general planning factors for the time available for movement to shelter. These factors on time-distance relationships must be adapted to each community situation, by the local civil defense director, the local planner, and other local officials, and considered in preparing the CSP. They are as follow: 6 1. Warning time assumptions (time available for movement to shelter) . a. Minimum tactical warning time of 15 minutes prior to initial detonations, less the time required to disseminate the warning. b. Additional minimum warning time of 30 minutes prior to arrival of fallout in urban and suburban areas. c. Minimum additional warning time of 60 minutes prior to arrival of fallout in rural areas. 2. Movement assumptions. a. Central, high-density urban areas: walking---13,4 mile per 15 minutes. b. Suburban areas, or low-density urban areas: (1) Walking-1 mile per 15 minutes. (2) Riding-5 miles per 15 minutes. c. Rural areas: riding-10 miles per 15 minutes. 3. Shelter-loading assumptions. a. People allocated to shelter located no farther away than warning time (tactical plus fallout arrival time), based on the following assumed movement capabilities: ( 1) Urban walking-2 miles. (2) Suburban walking-3 miles. (3) Suburban riding-15 miles. ( 4) Rural riding-50 miles. b. In riding movement, planned parking is available and walking time-distance from parking to shelter is subtracted. On the basis of these shelter-loading assumptions, the broad general guideline can be used that the population should be able to reach planned shelter or special facilities (mines, tunnels, caves, and subways) from a distance of (1) up to 2 miles in dense urban areas, (2) 3 to • See Federal CD Guide, part A, chapter 1, p. 6. 8 Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2 15 miles in suburban areas, and (3) up to 50 miles in rural areas. In Step I CSP planning, the above assumptions must be modified according to local anomalies, such as lack of pedestrian access, traffic bottlenecks (i.e., bridges and tunnels), and conflicting use of thoroughfares by both vehicles and pedestrians. Also, 30 minutes in general represents a realistic limit for time for movement to shelter in urban areas, as does 60 minutes for rural areas. In some cases, however, a community may feel that it is practica;ble and workable to base their CSP shelter allocation plan on somewhat longer movement. In arriving at such a decision, the CSP project staff, the CD director, the police, or other local officials who will be responsible to make the movement plan work, and the leaders of the community should satisfy themselves that a realistic and credible shelter allocation plan can be developed on the basis of the longer movement time. In such cases, the 30/60-minute movement times may be extended, at local option, by a reasonable amount such that the total movement time does not exceed one (1) hour in SMSAs over 100,000 population, two (2) hours in SMSAs under 100,000 population, and three (3) hours in other areas. The movement time for populations entering larger communities from rural or smaller town areas shall be limited to the movement time applicable to the larger community. In some cases, use of extended movement times may make it possible to use surveyed space in mines, caves, or other "special facilit_ies." The basis for allowing extension of the recommended movement times is as follows: It is impossible to predict with any precision, either now or in the future, the specific objectives of a nuclear attack on the United States. Thus, it is impossible to predict whether or not any given locality would be exposed to the direct effects of nuclear weapons or to fallout, although fallout is a hazard which may affect any part of the country. It is also impossible to predict when fallout might begin to arrive in any specific locality. Therefore, for CSP planning purposes, localities may extend the recommended movement times of 30 minutes in urban or suburban areas and 60 minutes in rural areas up to the amounts prescribed above; namely, 1, 2, or 3 hours. Again, a decision to extend the 30/60-minute movement times should be made only in those cases where the locality is satisfied that a workable shelter allocation plan will result. Mode of Travel The mode of travel is a function of the density of the population and the density of nonresidential activities, available transportation alternatives, the movement time adopted by the locality, and the distance to shelter, as well as of considerations of operational practicability. Note that Step I allocation plans will provide, where necessary, for the use of vehicular movement to make the best use possible of available public shelter. This does not involve a massive reverse movement of people from outlying areas or suburbs to central business districts of large cities. Rather, vehicular movements will be planned over relatively short distances (usually no more than 2 or 3 miles), and for people in specified areas only, to make the best use possible of available shelter. Where a combination of riding and walking is to be used, each part of the entire process should be analyzed and evaluated for the average time required to complete it. For example, a drivepark-walk system would include the time to get to the vehicle, the time in transit to the cordon line or parking areas, the time for parking or abandoning the car, and finally the time for walking from the car to the shelter. The planner and the CD director should bear in mind, in developing recommended planning factors and policies, that any use of vehicular movement will complicate the Step I shelter allocation plan and make it more difficult to execute, thereby running a risk of decreasing its credibility. Vehicular movement would make it more difficult to shelter the population in case of attack, since the local police force would be required to direct the movement of vehicles to parking areas, to assist in 9 Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2 parking, and to direct pedestrians from parking areas to public shelters. The foregoing and related factors argue against the use of vehicular movement at all, even in selected parts of the CSP area. These considerations are reinforced if there is a substantial resource of home basements in the CSP area. Whether or not an EFPH survey has been made to identify the precise levels of protection existing in homes, a substantial amount of protection is in fact afforded by homes in those parts of the country where most homes have basements. Also, where a movement time of approximately 30 minutes is adopted locally, most or all vehicular movement would be precluded. On the other hand, there may be situationsespecially in areas where home basements are few-where localities will conclude that it is best, on balance, to base the Step I allocation plan upon the use of some vehicular movement. This might be the case, for example, where a college, university, or other institution was located on the outskirts of a city and provided public shelter for the people in the surrounding small town or rural area, who would not otherwise have substantial protection available. It is clear, therefore, that a decision to recommend the use of some vehicular movement must be arrived at only after carefully weighing all factors relevant. This evaluation should be made by the local urban planner, the CD director, the traffic engineer, and the police chief or other local official who would be responsible to make the movement plan work. Again, the overall aim must be to develop a Step I capability allocation plan which is realistic, workable, and credible to the elected officials of the community and to the citizens. Decisions to ex tend the recommended movement times of 30 min utes in urban/suburban areas and 60 minutes in rural areas, or to use some vehicular movement, must be evaluated against the overall aim. In CSP areas with varying densities, different modes of travel may be used. In such cases, the boundaries that are not to be crossed during the movement to shelter should be clearly defined for example, rivers or recognizable political The following chart provides some guidelines for determining the mode of travel to be used, if it is decided to use some vehicular movement. Travel Mode Indicator Walking High population density Limited travel time Shelters nearby Auto Low population density Adequate street capacity Sufficient travel time Shelters far away Auto and walking Limit upon street capacity Sufficient travel time Shelters far away Shelter Concentrations and Maximum Travel Distance By analyzing the Shelter Location map, concentrations of shelter can be determined. In the Step IC General Shelter Allocation and Step ID Specific Shelter Allocation, some shelters will be so clustered that several shelters can be considered as a, single unit for defining a service (or drainage) area. By estimating the maximum distances necessary to fill the shelters, the need for alternative modes of transportation and increased time can be determined. The distance that can be traveled is a function of the previously disc~ssed factors, including travel time and travel rate as determined by the mode of travel. Not all the time available for movement will actually be u~ed in traveling. Additional time must be allowed for (1) parking time where vehicles are used to move to shelter, and (2) the time spent upon arrival at the shelter facility for seeking the entrance and queuing. PRACTICAL APPLICATION OF PLANNING FACTORS AND POLICIES It must be borne in mind, both in developing the planning factors a~d policies and in using them, that the factors must be applied with skill and judgment. That is, 'vhile the planning factors represent the best dudgment of the local planner and CD director as to the general criteria which should be applied in their locality, within the boundaries. guidelines furnished by OCD, they will have to 10 be applied, eventually, on nearly a case-by-case basis. Even after they are tested in Step IC, and reviewed and if necessary refined in Step ID, choices may have to be made, for example, between using extended movement times to allocate more people to shelter in SL "X" and using less than 10 square feet per person in SL "Y" to accom modate people from both "X" and "Y." In short, the actual application of the planning factors and policies in making shelter allocations is not a mere mechanical or mathematical process. Rather, it is one requiring professional judgment by the urban planner. REPORT TO CE/BUDOCKS At the end of Step IB, prepare and submit to CE/BuDocks the required CSP report for Steps IA and IB, with copies to the State civil defense agency and the OCD Region. (See Exhibit A-2 in annex 5 to appendix D-3-1.) The local CD director should concur in this report in writing before it is submitted. The report will include a letter from the appropriate local official stating that the planning factors and policies developed in Step IB have been reviewed by specified local government executive or legislative officials of the CSP area, and have been approved as the basis for further CSP work. SUMMARY The planning factors or policies that are established for preparing the Step I Shelter Capability Allocation Plan should include the following: 1. Goals and objectives of the CSP. (See the objectives included in the standard Step IA/ IB CSP report form, Exhibit A-2 in annex 5 to appendix D-3-1.) 2. Population basis for allocation to shelterdaytime, nighttime, resident, other. 3. Shelter facility criteria-PF, less than 50 capacity, use of protection of known PF in homes, and use (at local option) of space-perperson criteria of less than 10 square feet. 4. Time available for travel. 5. Mode of travel. 6. Maximum travel distance. Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2 STEP IC-GENERAL SHELTER ,ALLOCATION In Step IC, General Shelter Allocation, the pop ulation in the larger, more heavily populated CSP areas is allocated to shelter. This Step takes into account the physical characteristics of the com munity that were defined in Step IA and the travel distances that were established in Step IB. Arti ficial lines, such as SL boundaries, will be dis pensed with, and shelter drainage areas will be established. Reliable population data will have to be assembled in preparation for Step ID. Step IC work will be started only after final CE/BuDocks approval of the Step IA-IB report. Step IC may be omitted in preparing the CSP for small communities. and communities with uncomplicated shelter-population distributions, neither of which will require that the policies and guidelines be tested. In large metropolitan areas with hundreds of SLs and in cities with complicated shelter-population relationships, however, the Step IC general allocation is important for several reasons. First, if the more detailed Specific Shelter Allocation (Step ID) requires considera:ble time to prepare (one year or more), the Step IC general allocation can be used to provide interim instructions to the public and to program CD support operations. Second, if the smaller political jurisdictions of a metropolitan area are to prepare the Step ID Specific Shelter Allocations for their own areas, the Step IC general allocation will serve as the overall plan for the region and ensure that uniform planning factors are used in the area CSPs. Third, the policies and guidelines established in Step IB can be tested in Step IC, before the Step ID Specific Shelter Allocation is developed. DIVIDE COMMUNITY INTO MAXIMUM POPULATION DRAINAGE AREAS The community should be divided into logical planning areas between which little cross-movement of people would occur after the warning. Rivers, swamps, expressways, areas of low population density, etc., can be used to determine the planning areas. Dividing the community this way will simplify the analysis of movement to shelter. A city of 200,000, for example, might be divided into from four to six planning areas; 11 Federal CD Guide, December 1965Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2 whereas in smaller communities division may be SL, but will not be as refined or detailed as the unnecessary. Specific Allocation map to be prepared in Step ID. Within each planning area, there will be SLs POPULATION IN DRAINAGE AREAS with an excess of shelter space and others with a deficit of shelter space. In practice, the populaA statistical summary of both the sheltered and tion must be allocated to shelters without referunsheltered population should be prepared for ence to the arbitrary SL boundaries. The areas each population distribution (daytime, nightime, defined as sheltered and unsheltered should be adseasonal) . The summary should indicate any justed, where necessary, without regard to SL location where shelter not meeting standard boundaries so that the population within the criteria (PF 40 or better, 10 sq. ft., etc.) is used. sheltered area will approximately equal the availIn communities having large concentrated inable shelter space. Two restrictions must be ventories of shelter space in Category 4 and over, considered in moving population to shelter: the Step IC General Shelter Allocation should 1. Natural and man-made barriers to movement distinguish those areas where shelter space of only PF 100 and over is needed. Designating these (see the rnap prepared in Step IA) . 2. The defined travel distance and capacity of areas will also provide guidance for the CD office the travel routes available (established in in its licensing, marking, and stocking program. Although block statistics or census tract data Step IB). can be used in preparing the statistical summary,The high-capacity shelters or clusters of shelters the Step IC general allocation need not provide awith a combined large capacity, which are shown highly accurate estimate of the sheltered and unon the shelter location map prepared in Step IA, sheltered population. are used to determine the areas to which the outlying unsheltered population is to be directed. The POPULATION ESTIMATING PROGRAMshelters of relatively low capacity that are located in a scattered pattern throughout the SLs can be An important part of Step IC is to provide upassumed to be filled by the population in the imdated population estimates by small area for use in preparing the Specific Shelter Allocation, mediate area of the shelter. Where only a porThe Step IA Preliminary Analysis and tion of the population from an SL can be allocated Step ID. Step IC general allocation are prepared usingto shelter, a general estimate of the total SL popu lation within the particular sub-area of the SL can population estimates from the NFSS. However, these estimates are not sufficiently reliable for pre be made by reference to land-use maps or aerial paring the Step ID Specific Shelter Allocation. photographs. 'Vhere there is a concentration of shelter spaces, as in a central business district, the In most cases, they were based on 1960 census figures, with only general estimates made of the established travel distance may limit the geoother factors involved in the makeup of peak graphical area to be sheltered so that not all the populations. The method of calculating peak shelters can be used. The travel routes to shelter concentrations population varied from one locality to another, should be indicated and analyzed. If unusual and generally the method and record sheets used are no longer available. requirements, such as a cordon line around conThe type of data and degree of detail needed centrations of shelter, are necessary, the local planner will be responsible for coordination with to make the population estimates should be deterthe local traffic engineer, police department, or mined first.7 Precise population estimates for small areas (blocks, enumeration districts) will be other agency responsible for traffic planning. (See Federal CD Guide, part D, chapter 4, and :r:equired for the shelter drainage areas. For the shelter deficit areas, larger estimating units ( cen appendices.) A map should be prepared, showing sheltered sus tracts, neighborhoods) can be used, however, and unsheltered areas. This map will be more 7 Some methods of estimating population by small area ar~ realistic than the Preliminary Analysis map, by discussed in annex 3 to this appendix. 12 since only the total deficit population must be known. In cases where the limiting factor is the established travel distance rather than the ca pacity of the shelter, the estimates for the sheltered area may not have to be precise, since the number of available shelters will exceed the population that can use them. A survey should be made of the available sources of da:ta on popuhttion, and these should be checked for accuracy, detail, and coverage. Some exam ples of the sources that may be available are: Resident population U.S. Census, 1960 (by blocks, EDs, census tracts) Special censuses Building and demolition permits Utility connection data School population surveys Housing and relocation studies Nonresident population Employment by establishment, State Department of Employment Security Parking surveys Origin and destination studies Traffic studies Land-use surveys CBD studies Urban renewal studies The population-estimating program should be prepared in detail, including the design of the necessary forms for tabulating the population and keeping accurate records, before the actual population estimates are made. Completing the actual estimates will require considerable time and effort. Therefore, sufficient time should be allowed, adequate personnel should be made available, and data processing machines should be used, if necessary, since Steps ID and III cannot be undertaken until the small-area population data are available. RELATE MOVEMENT ROUTE CAPACITIES TO DRAINAGE AREAS Based upon information from the Bureau of Census, State department of motor vehicles, or other sources, the availability of automobiles and the expected loading (i.e., number of persons per vehicle) should be determined for each drainage area, if some vehicular movement is planned. The vehicular volume estimated should then be related to the capacity of the probable movement routes and of the terminal (parking) facilities. Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2 Based upon this comparison, the boundaries of the drainage area should be adjusted as necessary. (See Federal CD Guide, Part D, Chapter 4, and appendices.) PRELIMINARY PLAN FOR DISSEMINATING INFORMATION TO THE PUBLIC A preliminary public information plan can be prepared at the conclusion of the Step IC general allocation. The objectives and policies of the program will be decided by the local CD office, based on OCD guidance for CSP Step II. The program should identify the various audiences (population sheltered and not sheltered in surveyed shelter facilities, public officials, etc.) and the types of information needed for each group. REPORT TO CE/BUDOCKS At the end of Step IC, prepare and submit a report to CE/BuDocks with copies to the State civil defense agency and to the OCD Region. Under the provisions of the CSP contract, this is to include "map(s) and tabulations comprising a general allocation of population by small areas to areas of shelter concentration." (See annex 5 to appendix D-3-1.) The local civil defense director should concur in this report in writing before it is submitted. STEP ID-SPECIFIC SHELTER ALLOCATION The objective of the Specific Shelter Allocation, Step ID, is to develop a precise plan for allocating the population in small areas to specific shelter facilities or groups of facilities. It will result in a detailed shelter capability allocation plan, based on the use of the best protected space currently available. A map will be prepared, showing the area served by shelter facilities and defining the shelter deficit areas. Instructions will be written, allocating the public to specific shelter facilities or groups of facilities. Step ID work may be started prior to final CE/BuDocks approval of the Step IC work. However, in CSP areas where Step IC is not undertaken, Step ID will be started only after final CE/BuDocks approval of the Step IA-IB report. 13 Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2 Reevaluation of Planning Factors and Policies The planning factors and policies developed in Step IB were tested in Step IC. Prior to beginning Step ID, these policies should be reviewed and refined, if necessary. In particular, final decisions should be made on the number of population distributions (daytime, nighttime) to be considered, as well as the travel time, travel mode, and travel distance within the allotted time. The local CD director should participate fully in this reevaluation. If space-per-person criteria of less than 10 square feet are to be utilized, these should be based on the OCD guidance in annex 6 to appendix D-3-1. The Step ID Specific Shelter Allocation will have to be translated into instructions that will be understandable to the genera1 public, for use in CSP Step II. This information will generally consist of maps and instructions directing persons in particular areas to a specific shelter or group of shelters. Therefore, the format and requirements for the public information maps should be determined prior to undertaking Step ID. Although the complete system of public information for the CSP will be prepared in Step II, considerable time and effort can be saved if the mapping techniques are suitable for both steps. Population Estimates by Small Area Prepare population estimates by small area, following the work program established in Step IC. (See annex 3 for techniques of estimating smallarea population.) Note that the Small Structures Survey requires detailed field inspection of structures in the CSP area by CE/BuDocks. This inspection may afford an opportunity to the planner to obtain data on dwelling-unit locations, as one basis for making small-area population estimates. Joint work by the planner and CEjBuDocks field teams may therefore reduce overall CSP project costs and effort. Specific Shelter Allocation Specific Shelter Drainage Areas In allocating small areas of population to specific shelters or groups of shelters, the following generalized procedure can be used: Using the general allocat~on prepared in Step IC for reference, the allocatiOn process should begin in the area where the greatest number of shelter spaces exist, and work outward toward the deficit areas. Where several .shelters are clustered together, they may be considered as one shelter. A circle should be drawn around the cluster of shelters and the total number of spaces indicated. Persons normally in a building with a shelter facility (or a cluster of facilities) should be allocated to the shelter space in that facility. Estimates of the peak population within each facility can be most accurately determined through discussions with the owner or manager of the building. If shelters are grouped by block, then the estimated peak population in that block can be used. Surrounding population should be allocated to the shelter until either the capacity of the shelter is reached or the travel distance established in Step IB is reached. Using the determined travel distance, and working outward from large-capacity shelters, a circle should be drawn around the geographical area from which population can be directed to shelter. If the shelter is unfilled by the population within the circle, then the perimeter is the shelter limit line. In allocating adjacent population areas, either building by building or block by block, a systematic method should be used in all cases to avoid criticism for arbitrariness. 'Vhen allocating areas to shelter, the population nearest a facility should be allocated to the shelter. Allocations should not be made in which people must bypass one shelter to reach another, 'unless the particular situation in the community makes the more complicated movement feasible. One example of a situation where a complex specific allocation might be considered would be a large private preparatory school, because the majority of the students could be preinstructed and be cause they are accustomed to following instruc tions in other types of emergency procedures, such as fire drills. Other situations must be assessed on a case-by-case basis. Shelter allocation plans prepared under the National CSP Program shall provide for alloca tion of population to shelters without regard to the race, color, or national origin of the shelterees. 14 Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2 M011ement Planning In planning specific shelter allocations, care must be exercised that the movements planned are realistic. This will normally require participa tion by the local traffic engineer or traffic planner, at this point in the CSP. Where vehicular movement is to be used, the specific travel routes should be designated for each drainage area. Where possible, they should be the same as the routes used in normal patterns of movement. Terminal areas should be developed for each shelter or groups of shelters. In selecting the terminal area, consideration must be given to the access routes, route capacity, parking capacity and proximity, and the number of unsheltered people. Just as traffic engineering is required for most of the determinations indicated above, the local law-enforcement office should now participate in determining the movement control needed to carry out the movement plan effectively. See Federal CD Guide, part D, chapter 4, and appendices, for detailed guidance on movement and traffic control planning. Pending receipt of chapter D-4, local city planners and traffic engineers should apply recognized movement planning principles. Use of EFPH Space In developing the Step ID shelter capability allocation plan, account should be taken of PF 40plus space identified in single-family homes by the EFPH survey, if this has been carried out in the CSP locality. In general, such PF 40-plus space should be assumed to be available for use by the occupants of the homes in which it has been identified. In some cases its use should be assumed; in other cases, the EFPH space may present an option to the people with such space available in their homes-namely, they may go to public shelters or they may choose to remain at home. For example, EFPH may have identified subst.:'tntial amounts of PF 40-plus shelter in older single-family residences close to the central business district, or CBD. (PF 40-plus space will normally be identified only in two-and three-story houses, especially in narrower houses and in row-houses.) In cities of small or medium size, where residents near the CBD are assumed to use EFPH space of PF 40-plus identified in their homes, this may mean that people from residential areas farther from the center of the city may be allocated to public shelters in the CBD, provided they can reach these shelters within the travel time specified. Thus the people near the CBD with EFPH space available in their homes should be instructed to use that space, so they do not occupy public shelter space which people living farther from the CBD could use. In larger cities, however, movement time restrictions may make it impossible for residents of more distant suburbs to reach CBD public shelters. In that case, the people living near the CBD who have EFPH space of PF 40-plus identified in their homes would have the option of going to CBD public shelters or of taking shelter in their own basements. EFPH space of PF 40-plus identified in homes in areas of overall shelter deficit should be assumed to be used by the occupants. Thus in rural or smaller town areas with substantial shelter deficits, persons with PF 40-plus EFPH space available should be assumed to use it. (This simply means that they would not need to consider means of improvising additional shelter in their homes, which other residents of the area would have to do.) Urban planners should note that EFPH results will probably be given to them ouly in the form of a printout report of the amount of EFPH space in each SL (both PF 40-plus and PF 20 to 39), together with a report as to the number of occupants (residents) in houses affording protection. Planners will probably not receive an address-byaddress listing of houses with EFPH space available, from which the location of such houses could be plotted on a map. In some SL's, this may raise problems as to which of the people with EFPH space available should remain home, to keep public shelter space available for allocation to people without EFPH space at home. In such cases, planners should make the best estimate possible as to where, within the SL, EFPH space is available. This estimate should be based on the fact that PF 40-plus space 15 796-724 0-66-3 Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2 will be identified by EFPH only in two-and threestory houses. The provisions of the Step I shelter allocation plan which relate to the use of EFPH space must be reflected in the instructions for the public developed in Steps ID and II. Therefore, in providing for the use of EFPH space in the Step ID allocation plan, care should be taken that the plan developed is not so complex that it cannot be explained clearly to the public. (At this point review Attachment 1 to Annex 7 to Appendix D-3-1, for the type of instructions the public will eventually have to receive.) Operational 0011.siderations as They Affect the': Specific Allocation During Step ID, the local planner and the local CD director must work together closely, to ensure that operational considerations are taken into account in developing the specific shelter allocation. For example, some shelters or parts of shelters may be set aside for the use of fire companies, so that they may undertake essential firefighting missions as fallout conditions permit. Similar considerations may apply to police, public works engineering, or transportation personnel, who might be called upon to undertake operations as required by the emergency situation and as permitted by fallout conditions. In assigning fire, police, or other forces to specific shelters,· it should be borne in mind that fire department captains, police officers, or other public officials may be designated as Shelter Complex Headquarters managers, directors, leaders, or chiefs. (See annex 9 to appendix D-3-1-specifically, point B2a ( 2) of the Model Local Directive.) A Shelter Complex Headquarters is a shelter with communications to the EOC, designated to control a maximum of 25 individual shelters in its immediate vicinity. Where a fire captain, for example, is designated as Shelter Complex Director, his fire company should, if possible, be located in the same shelter, to facilitate control if intra-complex firefighting operations are required-and are permitted by fallout-during the period when the population is in fallout shelters. tact, organized units, capable of either civil defense support or military missions. The local planner and CD director should contact local military unit commanders to coordinate plans; the military commanders will probably wish to consult with State-level military support planners in the office of the State Adjutant General. In some cases, the State CD agency may have requirements for protected space within the CSP area; for example, for a State-Area Emergency Operating Center. While such sheltered areas will normally be located in a State-owned facility, the local planner and CD director should check with the State CD agency, to ensure that a single facility is not being planned for use in two conflicting roles. Where local fire, police, or engineering forces are to proceed to designated shelters, nearby protected areas should be sought for their vehicles. This should not be PF 20 or better fallout shelter; rather, what is desirable is any type of cover-for example, a lightly constructed garage-which will prevent fallout particles being deposited on the equipment, where it could present a radiation hazard until removed or radiation decays. Also, lo c calities may find it advisable to plan for the dependents of fire, police, or other local forces to join them at their designated shelter. Finally, each locality should have an Emergency Operating Center (EOC), a protected area from which emergency operations can be directed and controlled by the local chief executive and his key officials. Direction and control includes, among other things, direction of movement to shelter, including redistribution of people from shelters which are loaded beyond capacity to other shelters with space still available-in other words, making the CSP shelter allocation plan work, despite the fact that some people may go to the wrong shelters. Redistribution can only be carried out, of course, as time and fallout conditions permit. Local government direction and control would also include control during the in-shelter period. This could include direction to Shelter Complex Headquarters and thence to shelters as to when Also, local military units, especially of the reit would be possible to send small parties out to serve components, may have shelter requirements secure additional food or water, or when it would which should be met if they are to survive as in-be possible for the entire population to leave shel 16 Federal CD Guide, December 1965Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2 ters. For detailed guidance on local government The maps and records of the Step ID Specificdirection and control, including EOC organizaShelter Allocation will indicate clearly whention, staffing, and operations, see Federal CD shelter not meeting minimum criteria is used (PFGuide, part E, chapter 2, and its appendices. 40 or better, 10 sq. ft. of ventilated space, etc.).OCD operational research, including EOC simuTabulations for the entire community will dislation experiments with actual local officials, have tinguish between the population allocated toshown that it is absolutely essential that each loshelter facilities meeting OCD minimum criteriacality have an EOC. Therefore, where a locality and the population allocated to protected spacedoes not have an existing EOC, Step ID of the not meeting these criteria. Space not meetingOSP process 'will include designation of an minimum criteria will be phased out in futureEOO. A suitable area can often be found in CSP updating, as additional standard shelter bea courthouse or city hall basement where the NFSS comes available.has identified protected space, or in another facility Shelter allocations will be tabulated on thewith adequate protection. Shelter Allocation Accounting Form (see annex 4The report required for Step ID must include a to this appendix), and will be reported on thatdiscussion of operational factors considered in part of the CSP Standard Information Formmaking the specific allocation, including the deswhich relates to Step ID (see annex 4).ignation, where necessary, of an EOC. Report to CE/BuDocks Population Allocated and Not Allocated toCommunity Shelter At the end of Step ID, prepare and submit aA record will be kept of the allocated and unreport to CE/BuDocks, with copies to the Stateallocated population and the shelter to which each civil defense agency and to the OCD Region.small area of population is allocated. The records Under the provisions of the CSP contract, thiswill be used in making shelter allocations, upwill include:dating the allocation plan, and monitoring the • Maps of the specific allocation which are suit project. Use of the Shelter Allocation Account able for adaptation for informing the public. ing Form is required. (See annex 4 to this These should include at least one map per politi appendix.) cal jurisdiction, in multi-jurisdictional CSPShelter Criteria areas, to the extent to which this is feasible. In areas with a deficit of PF 40 or better shelter • Tabulations of the allocation on the Shelter(Category 2-8), community shelter not meeting Allocation Accounting Form and the CSPstandard criteria will be used where and as necesStandard Information Form, plus a summarysary, following the planning factors and policies for the entire CSP area.established in Step IB, including use of less than • A detailed description of the method of deter 10 square feet per person (at local option) where mining small-area population and the method both necessary and feasible. Where EFPH re of allocating population to shelter. sults are available, or the local CD director hasdata on fallout shelters existing in homes, this • Descriptive text on the preparation of the shelterexisting protection will be used· as provided in the allocation plan, including the rationale for theStep IB planning factors and policies. Finally, planning factors and policies used. people who cannot be allocated to community • Discussion of operational factors considered inshelters, or who cannot be accommodated in developing the specific allocation (e.g., designashelter of known PF identified in their homes, will tion of shelter areas for police, fire, and otherbe advised to seek shelter in the best-protected local government forces) , as well as designationparts of their homes. They will be provided inof a protected area to serve as a local Emergencystructions, based on CSP Step II work, on how to Operating Center (EOC) where no other localimprove the protection afforded by their homes. EOC exists. 17 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2 Federal CD Guide, December 1965 The Step ID report will also include a statement to the effect that the shelter allocation plan provides for the allocation of population to shelter without regard to race, color, or national origin. The local civil defense director should concur in this report in writing before it is submitted. STEP II-EMERGENCY INFORMATION READINESS (EIR) After the completion of the Shelter Capability Allocation Plan in Step I, the local planner, assisted to the maximum extent possible by the local CD director and local news media and advertising representatives, starts work on Step II, Emergency Information Readiness. Step II requires that the local government be prepared to advise the people on where to go and what to do in case of nuclear attack. This includes information on the location of all available public shelters, and on routes to take to these shelters, as well as information for those people for whom public shelter is not currently available, under the Step I capability allocation plan. Work relating to both the emergency information and public information aspects of the CSP is carried out during two separate periods of time: (1) Work during Step II of the CSP contract in general includes making detailed plans for informing the public on the CSP and its role in the overall civil defense plan of the community, and on individual and family emergency actions. The latter requires developing maps and instructions for later distribution to the public, developing a detailed plan for distribution, etc. (2) The actual implementation of the information program developed in Step II is done after OOD approval of the OSP. This includes such things as printing sufficient copies of the maps and instructions for all citizens, getting these distributed, stockpiling materials for use in possible periods of increased international tension, etc. The specific tasks required under Step II of the CSP contract include: • Combining the OCD-furnished general emergency information material and guidance (see annex 7 to appendix D-3-1) with local CSP maps, adding local information as necessary and pertinent (e.g., locations of shelters, allocation of population in small areas to specific shelters or clusters of shelters, movement routes to shelter, parking areas, etc.). Note that separate maps should be made for each political jurisdiction, so far as feasible, in multi-jurisdiction CSP areas. These maps and instructions comprise the "CSP individual information package" required by the CSP contact. (See annex 5 to appendix D-3-1.) • Developing a detailed plan for distributing the CSP individual information package to the public, following OCD approval of the OSP. An nex 7 to appendix D-3-1 contains suggestions as to distribution methods. • Developing a detailed plan for providing the public with general information a;bout the CSP and its relation to the overall civil defense program of the community, utilizing OCD-furnished information materials and guidance. (See annex 7 to appendix D-3-1.) These information activities would be actually carried out at the time when the CSP individual information package was distributed. • Developing a detailed plan for communicating CSP information to the public in a period of increased international tension (as opposed to the initial distribution, soon after approval of the OSP). This will include a detailed description of the methods to be used in disseminating OSP maps and associated materials (e.g., via local newspapers, direct distribution of brochures or handbills, use of local radio and television stations, etc.). The plan will also include a description of how OCD-furnished materials will be used. This plan should be in consonance with the increased readiness guidance in Federal CD Guide, part G, chapter 5. • Developing a detailed plan for marking previously unmarked shelters in a period of increased international tension, using adhesive shelter signs to be furnished by OCD. This includes a plan for pre-positioning the signs with local fire or police departments, with the specific building, address, and sign location (s) indicated on the back of each sign. This plan too should be in consonance with Federal CD Guide, part G. chapter 5, on increased readiness actions. • Submitting the Step II report to CE/BuDocks contracting officer, with copies to State CD and the OCD Region. (See annex 5 to . appendix D-3-1.) These are all the emergency public information tasks covered in the CSP contract. CE/BuDocks, the CSPOS, and the RFO will closely monitor local projects, to ensure that local EIR plans are workable and capable of being carried out in time of crisis. Later, upon completion of the CSP contract, additional work will be done to carry out the plans developed under Step II. These tasks will be un dertaken following OCD approval of the CSP and include: • Sending the OSP individual information package (maps and instructions) to OCD Region for review, and submitting an application for funds to meet publication and, if necessary, distribution costs in full. • Distributing the OSP individual information package, as well as stockpiling additional copies to cover new residents, residents missed in the initial distribution, etc. • Informing the public about the CSP and its role in the overall civil defense plan of the community-utilizing newspapers, radio, television, speeches, etc., as provided in the plan developed during Step II. • Stockpiling information materials for use in a period of increased international tension. • Pre-positioning adhesive shelter signs with local police or fire departments, e!tc., for rapid posting in a period of increased international tension. STEP Ill-IDENTIFICATION OF SHELTER DEFICITS Step III requires identifying with precision local deficits of shelter meeting standard criteria (PF 40 or better, 10 sq. ft. of ventilated space or 500 cu. ft. of unventilated space), using established criteria for movement time (30 mins. in urban or suburban areas and 60 mins. in rural areas) . This will include both current deficits and anticipated future deficits, based on shelter expected to be added by new construction or subtracted by demolition, as well as on expected population growth, Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2 all as of 1970 and 1975, based on (or extrapolated from) local comprehensive or master plans, as available. The deficit figures will be based on the condition of maximum population for each SL, whether this be resident, day, or night population. This ap proach is intended to result in "double counting," where appropriate. That is, in some CSP areas there may be a deficit of shelter for the daytime work force in a downtown area, and there may be an additional nighttime deficit in the residential areas, involving some of the same people who work in daytime deficit areas. Since both deficits of space are real, both must be identified by Step III work. The purpose of Step III is to identify shelter deficits on a uniform basis throughout the country, by quantity and by geographical location. Step III results will also form the basis locally for Step IV, Procedures for Development of Shelter. Step III work may be started before final approval by CE/BuDocks of the 'Step II report. Note that data on space not meeting standard criteria were developed in Step ID, which constitutes one major input to the Step III identification of deficits. However, the Step III requirements will require additional shelter allocation work, if any nonstandard criteria were used in the Step ID specific allocation; for example, use of Category 1 space, extended movement times, or less than 10 sq. ft. per person. Note also that where an EFPH survey has been made o£ the fallout protection existing in singlefamily homes, PF 40 or better space identified by such surveys will be used to reduce the shelter deficit in the locality, to the extent to which such EFPH space can be used by the occupants of houses where it has been identified. The procedures used in taking the use of EFPH space into account should be the same as discussed above under Step ID, Specific Allocation, except that the 30/60 minute established movement-time criteria required for Step III may result in additional shelter allocation work being required. Population Growth Projections sho·uld be made of population for 1970 and 1975. These should be based on the projections established in the comprehensive plan, or 19 Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2 in other community plans in which reliable projections have been made. Since the degree of reliability of the estimates decreases as the size of the study area decreases, communities should be divided into planning areas of a size that will allow the most accurate population estimate. Areas undergoing rapid growth should be identified since shelter development is more feasible in developing areas. Commercial and Industrial Construction and New Shelter Space An estimate should be made of the shelter space, if any, that will be added by new commercial and 1 industrial construction. This can be estimated by: analyzing the growth of the labor force in these two sectors of the economy and relating this growth to requirements for floor space. A list of recently constructed commercial and industrial buildings should also be developed. Building permit records can be used to identify buildings constructed during the last 5 years. The list should be compared with the shelter facility lists of the NFSS to determine the incidence of shelter in these new structures. The type of building construction involved should also be considered. In many communities where there has been considerable new construction, the types of materials used and the building types (one-story, slab construction) have resulted in buildings that offer little protection from :fallout. Residential Construction and New Shelter Space Recently constructed residential buildings should be analyzed in light of EFPH results, if available, to estimate increases in shelter space in residential structures. Such an analysis can be accomplished by projecting the demographic characteristics of the community and relating these to requirements for housing. Public and Semipublic Development Plans New facilities planned by Federal, State, and local governments will often provide new shelter space. Development plans for these should be obtained from appropriate sources. If the community has a capital improvement program, it will be a useful input to Step III. Plans for semipublic facilities, such as churches and civic organizations, should also be reviewed. Ifarchitectural drawings are being prepared, CE/BuDocks can estimate from them the number of shelter spaces that will be available upon completion. Where plans for new facilities are only in a formative state (i.e., "a fire station in a certain developing vxea by 1970"), the actual number of new shelter spaces cannot be determined, but the location for needed shelter spaces can be identified. School buildings would offer excellent locations for additional shelter, since their distribution in the community corresponds to the population distribution. To date, however, local school boards have been hesitant to include shelters in school construction plans because of limited budgets.8 Decrease in Shelter Availability Changes in the community due to urban renewal projects, highway development, and other projects that involve demolition will result in the removal of shelters from the inventory. These losses should be estimated by obtaining and analyzing plans for such activities. Future Deficit in Shelter Availability The future shelter deficit can be calculated by subtracting the projected shelter increment in number of spaces (both public and private) from the projected population and adding any decrease in shelter spaces through demolitions. Report to CE/BuDocks Step III work will be included in a combined Step III-IV report to be submitted to CE/BuDocks upon completion of Step IV. STEP IV-PROCEDURES FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHELTER Step IV includes both short-term and long-term local plans to alleviate the present and anticipated :future shelter deficits identified in Step III. It contains specific and concrete local procedures for applying programs now available or which may become available to increase local shelter inventories. s See OCD Technical Reports TR-19, National School Fallout Shelter Design Competition Awards, February 1965; and TR-27, New Buildings with Fallout Protection, January 1965. 20 Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2 Work on St~p IV will be started as soon as Step III is completed. The local civil defense director should participate to the fullest extent possible m Step IV work. USE OF VENTILABLE SPACE The short-term action is to prepare a plan for the use of Packaged Ventilation Kits, the "PVK plan," based on the use of all ventilable space, both available and needed. This includes a listing of the facilities and of the number of spaces, by facility, for which PVKs are needed. NFSS data on ventilation spaces is used, and it is assumed that PVKs will make it possible to bring all such space that may be required into the local inventory. As soon as PVKs are available for requisition, and are delivered, the PVK plan can be used as one of the bases for updating the Step I Shelter Capability Allocation Plan. INCORPORATING SHELTER IN NEW CONSTRUCTION The long-term action required in Step IV covers specific local procedures to encourage incorporation of shelter in new public or commercial buildings, plus assessment of areas where deficits would remain even if shelter were incorporated in most new construction. Specific responsibilities are assigned to local government agencies and departments. Special procedures may be needed with respect to school construction, depending on the authority and responsibility of school boards or similar bodies for programing, funding, and undertaking new school construction. These procedures will be designed to make use, as necessary, of the A&E Professional Development Service, to ensure that "slanting" design techniques are considered in the construction of all new private and public structures (especially schools) in shelter-deficit areas. With respect to public structures, the CSP project staff will prepare a local ordinance (see annex 8 to appendix D-3-1) requiring that shelter be incorporated in new public buildings, subject to stated net cost limitations. This ordinance, after having been coordinated with local legal counsel and other officials, will be presented to the local governing body at the time when the CSP is submitted for official approval (Step VI). If the ordinance is enacted with a cost limitation of zero, so that no public monies are authorized to be allocated to shelter incorpora tion, it will still have the effect of requiring con sideration of slanting techniques, which can in many cases produce shelter at no added cost. (See OCD Technical Report TR-27, New Buildings with Fallout Protection, January 1965.) Step IV wi11 also include full details on the assignment of local responsibilities, as well as on administrative channels, for ensuring consideration of slanting in public construction. This will include the roles and relationships of the CD agency, the city planning department, school boards, local building departments, and other agencies concerned. With respect to private construction, Step IV will include full details on means to encourage the use of slanting techniques in buildings being constructed in deficit areas. The essence of this problem is to identify building projects at an early enough stage in the design process that A&E's designing the buildings can he apprised of the use of "slanting" techniques. One method may include the use of Dodge Reports or other publications which note A&E design awards. CE/BuDocks offices will offer suggestions on this. Another method is to invite all A&E's doing work in the CSP area to a meeting, after the CSP is approved, at which they will be briefed both on the CSP and the community's need for additional shelter and on the use of slanting techniques in design. A&E Professional Development Service support for such meetings will be provided by OCD Regions, usually in the form of atrendance by a professor of architecture from a university participating in the Professional Development program. Step IV will include full details on these or other methods deemed practicable to secure incorporation of shelter in new private construction. In many areas, vigorously pursued local programs for incorporating shelter in new structures-for example, new school, college, or other public buildings, plus use of PVKs to add ventilation spaces--may result in the addition of enough 21 Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2 shelter to meet present or expected future deficits. In other areas, however, this will not be the case. Here, Step IV should include a detailed assessment of present and future deficits which it is not deemed feasible to alleviate fully by local action, by both geographical location and extent o:f deficit. OTHER LOCAL ACTION PLANS At the same time, Step IV should give :full details on actions to be taken by the locality in an attempt to solve such deficits at least partially. These actions may include, especially in rural areas, a program to promote construction of home shelters. Local action programs will cover development of shelter meeting standard criteria; for example, PF 40, 10 square feet of space, etc. Caves, mines, and other special facilities that could be used by improving the access or habitability should be analyzed. UPDATING THE CSP SHELTER ALLOCATION PLAN Finally, Step IV requires that the local planner and CD director outline procedures and responsibilities for periodically updating the Shelter Capability Allocation Plan. Responsibility will be assigned to specific local government agencies; for example, the city planning department, city engineer, or CD agency. The frequency of updating will be determined by the amount and rapidity of changes in the local shelter inventory or population size and distribu tion. In areas of rapid growth, annual updating may be required, whereas in areas essentially built up, and where urban renewal is not contemplated, updating at 3-year or longer intervals may suf fice. Records kept by the local building depart ment on building construction and demolition and the periodic population estimates of the planning department can serve as a basis for an annual re view of the CSP. CE/BuDocks will provide in formation on the program for future shelter sur veys and updating of the NFSS. The plan for updating the Shelter Capability Allocation Plan will specify : • Approximate date of review and updating. • Man-hours required and cost of updating. • Method of updating. • Information inputs needed for the updating and steps required to collect and compile the inputs. Updating will be programed to take full advantage of the latest NFSS updating survey in the community. Updated plans will be designated as, for example, "Shelter Capability Allocation Plan for 1968." REPORT TO CE/BUDOCKS At the end of Step IV, prepare and submit to CE/BuDocks a report covering both Steps III and IV, with copies to the State civil defense agency and to the OCD Region. (See annex 5 to appendix D-3-1.) Under the provisions of the CSP contract, the Step III-IV report will include: • Tabulation by number of spaces and Standard Location of present and predicted future ( 1970 and 1975) deficits of shelter meeting standard shelter criteria and within standard movement times of the population. The tabulation by SL will be on that part of the CSP Standard Information Form which relates to Step III data. (See annex 4 to this appendix.) A summary for the entire CSP area will also be submitted, together with appropriate narrative, maps, graphs, and tables, to depict both the current and predicted future deficit of shelter, using standard shelter criteria and movement times. • A PVK plan, including a tabulation by SL and by facility, of ventilable spaces for which PVKs are required. The tabulation will be on that part of the CSP Standard Information Form which relates to PVK data. A summary for the entire CSP area will also be submitted, together with appropriate narrative, maps, graphs, and t.c'lbles to facilitate updating the Step I Shelter Capability Allocation Plan when PVKs become available and are installed. • A detailed local plan, including administrative procedures and assignment of responsibilities to agencies of local government, to encourage incorporation of fallout shelter in new public and • Agency that will do the updating. private construction. This plan will include a 22 recommended local ordinance on incorporation of shelter in new public construction. The plan will also include any special provisions required relating to incorporating shelter in new schools. • Details, including appropriate maps, graphs, and tables, on other local action to be taken to attempt to meet local deficits with shelter meeting standard criteria. • Detailed plans and procedures for periodically updating the Step I Shelter Capability Allocation Plan, with responsibilities assigned to appropriate agencies of local government, and including estimates of the frequency of updating required and the cost involved. The local civil defense director should concur in this report in writing before it is submitted. CE/BuDocks representatives, as well as the State and Region, will conduct local inspections to verify that the procedures for developing shelter proposed in Step IV are sound and workable in the judgment of all local officials who will have responsibilities in this field when the CSP is officially approved. STEP V-DIRECTIVE(S) FOR UPDATING LOCAL CD EMERGENCY PLANS Step V requires preparation of a directive for updating local CD emergency plans. It does not include the actual updating, which will be done later, after the CSP is approved in Step VI. Where the CSP area covers a number of jurisdictions, some or all of which have their own civil defense agencies, a number of directives may be required, pertaining to each of the jurisdictions involved. The purpose of the Step V directive is to provide a basis for later updating of local CD plans, to produce local emergency action systems based on the Step I shelter allocation plan-in short, to develop local readine_qs to make the shelter allocation plan work. Step V work can be started before CE/BuDocks final approval of the Step III-IV report. The local civil defense director should undertake the bulk of the work involved in Step V, working with other local government officials. However, in the absence of this effort, the planner is responsible Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2 for preparing the directive ( s) to fulfill contract requirements. Content of Directive(s) The Step V planning directive ( s) will be based on the model directive in annex 9 to appendix D-3-1. The exact form of the local directive, however, will follow local usage on directions from the local chief executive to his department heads. The model directive provides for assigning responsibilty for updating the various parts of the plan to specific local government agencies or officials, including a schedule for completion. Upon local official approval in Step VI, the directive(s) takes effect and updating work proceeds. Report to CE/BuDocks At the end of Step V, prepare and submit a report to CE/BuDocks, with copies to the State civil defense agency and to the OCD Region. Under the provisions of the CSP contract (annex 5 to appendix D-3-1), this report will include "... copies of directives for updating the civil defense emergency plans of all jurisdictions in the CSP area which maintain or are required to maintain such plans, to base them on the Step I Shelter Capability Allocation Plan." The local civil defense director should concur in this report in writing before it is submitted. STEP VI-OFFICIAL ADOPTION OR APPROVAL OF CSP Step VI requires action to ensure local consideration of Steps I to V, and should result in whatever local action is required under State statute or local ordinance officially to adopt or approve the CSP. This includes, among other things, approval or adoption of: • The Step I capability allocation plan. • Step II materials and procedures for disseminating emergency action information to the public. • Step IV procedures for developing shelter in deficit areas, including assignment of specific responsibilities to local government agencies, as well as procedures and responsibility for updating shelter alloca'tions, and the recommended 23 796-724 0-66-4 Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2 ordinance on incorporating shelter in new pub lic buildings. • Step V planning directive for updating local CD emergency plans, including ass~gnment of specific responsibilities to local government agencies. Step VI work can be started before CE/Bu Docks final approval of the Step V report. The local planner and CD director hold any preliminary briefings required for the local chief executive and other officials concerned (e.g., fire chief or police chief), prior to formal presentation, if required, to the local legislative body. The local planner prepares charts and other materials required for these briefings. CE/BuDocks, OCD Regional, and State CD representatives will attend any meetings held locally to approve the CSP, to give explanations or support if requested. Report to CE/BuDocks Prior to official adoption or approval of the CSP, prepare and submit to CE/BuDocks the draft final report, with copies to the State civil defense agency and to the OCD Region. Under the provisions of the CSP contract (see annex 5 to appendix D-3-1), the draft final report will include: • Summary of factors and policies used in allocating the population to shelters, as well as specific shelter allocations, location of areas of deficit, amount of deficit, and number and loca tion of people for whom .no public shelter is available. • Material from Step I report needed to explain the local Shelter Capability Allocation Plan, including maps, charts, and tables. • Copies of maps or other materials to be used in disseminating CSP information to the public, as well as a summary of plans and procedures for dissemination, all based on the Step II report. • Summary of actions to be taken to alleviate shelter deficits, based on the Step IV report, including assignment of responsibilities to agroncies of local government and the proposed local ordinance on incorporating shelter in new public construction. • Updating plans and procedures for keeping the Shelter Capability Allocation Plan current in view of estimated population and shelter facility changes, including identification of the agency or agencies to be responsible for updating, as \veil as the schedule and estimated effort deemed necessary. • Material on directive( s) for updating local civil defense emergency plans, to base them on the Step I Shelter Capability Allocation Plan. The final report will be similar in general to other urban planning reports. Use the format set forth in Exhibit A-5 to the CSP contract, in annex 5 to appendix D-3-1. The report should be about 40 or 50 pages long. In addition to the five copies of the draft report required for CE/ BuDocks, the State civil defense agency, and the OCD Region, reproduce as many more copies as are needed for local review. After review of the draft by CE/BuDocks, edit and revise the final report in accordance with CE/ BuDocks comments and recommendations. Pre pare 20 copies for CE/BuDocks, the State civil defense agency, and the OCD Region, as required by the contract, as well as the number of addi tional copies required for local use. 24 Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2, Ann. 1 LIST OF TERMS USED IN COMMUNITY SHELTER PLANNING Allocation, General The process of allocating areas of population to areas of shelter concentration. Allocation, Specific The process of allocating geographically defined areas of population to a specific shelter facility or group of shelter facilities. Annex A supporting, amplifying statement attached to a plan, presenting detailed personnel and material requirements for the accomplishment of the plan. Appendix (also Attachment or Tab) Rela:ted or supporting statements attached to a plan or a plan annex. Census Tract A nonpolitical, geographical subdivision of no standard size, but within a city, town, county, or other political jurisdiction. It is used by the U.S. Bureau of the Census as a convenient and flexible unit for surveying and aggregating population. housing, and other demographic or economic statistics. In most instances, a tract corresponds to a Standard Location Area. Community Shelter Plan (CSP) The document that describes the analysis of the relationship of population to existing and future fallout shelter capabilities; includes means to inform the public of emergency action, and to increase the local inventory of shelter; and is the basis for updating local CD emergency plans to base them on the use of the best existing protected space. The objective of a community shelter plan is to maximize the number of li,•es saved in the event of a nuclear attack. Core The interior portion of the middle floors of a multistory building that may represent specific shelter areas. Emergency Operating Center (EOC) The seat of emergency government. Enumeration District (ED) An arbitrary geographical subdivision of census tracts, used for the purpose of taking the U.S. Census, and generally representing a one-manweek enumeration effort. FL Designation for a building floor. Group Quarters Occupied quarters which do not qualify as housing units are considered group quarters. They are located most frequently in institutions, hospitals, nurses' homes, rooming and boarding houses, military and other types of barracks, college dormitories, fraternity and sorority houses, convents, and monasteries. Group quarters are also located in a house or apartment in which the living quarters are shared by the head and five or more persons unrelated to him. Group quarters are not included in the housing inventory. The 1960 concept of group quarters is similar to the 1950 concept of nondwelling-unit quarters. Housing Unit A house, an apartment or other group of rooms, or a single room is regarded as a housing unit when it is occupied or intended for occupancy as separate living quarters-that is, when the occupants do not live and eat with any other persons in the structure and there is either (1) direct access from the outside or through a common hall, or (2) a 25 Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2, Ann. 1 kitchen or cooking equipment for the exclusive use of the occupants of the unit. The occupants of a housing unit may be a family or other group of persons, or a person living alone. Modification Improvements Shelter modifications that improve the degree of fallout protection, increase the capacity (spaces), or improve habitability. These modifications include increased shielding and improved ventilation, access, lighting, or power. Movement The act of moving people to shelter before, during, or immediately after an attack, generally from areas of shelter deficiency or destruction. National Fallout Shelter Survey (NFSS) The analysis of large buildings and subsurface enclosures to identify potential public fallout shelter. National Location Code (NLC) A system for defining geographical locations in any part of the United States and its territories or possessions. Natural Area An area defined by topographical features (rivers, lakes, etc.) and man-made features (railroad tracks, freeways, industrial tracts, etc.)not limited by political boundaries or jurisdictions. OCD Fallout Shelter Criteria A protection factor of 40 or greater. A minimum of 10 sq. ft. of shelter floor space, and 65 cu. ft. of space per person. At least 3 cu. ft. of fresh air per minute per person when capacity is based upon minimum space requirements. The cubic feet of space per person is increased with decreased ventilation. In unventilated underground space, 500 cu. ft. of space per person is required. Overload The number of people allocated to a shelter facility beyond its capacity as defined by the National Fallout Shelter Survey. Packaged Ventilation Kit (PVK) A compact, portable ventilation device that can be electrically or pedal operated, for stocking in belowground shelter areas for use in an emergency to increase the rated capacity and/or habitability of such shelter. Peak Population As used in the National Fallout Shelter Survey, the maximum population occupying a Standard Location Area at any given time on a normal weekday. The peak population of a city or other area that includes more than one Standard Location Area is a summation of the peak populations for each of the Standard Location Areas. Daytime peak The maximum population occurring during the daylight hours (8:00a.m. to 6:00p.m.). Nighttime peak The maximum population occurring during the nighttime hours ( 6 :00 p.m. to 8 :00 a.m.). Peak-Peak Population (also 24-Hour Peak) For a given Standard Location Area, the higher of the daytime and nighttime peaks. For a city or other area, the summation of 24-hour peak population of all Standard Location Areas therein. Physical Vulnerability Code (PV) Category and numerical code for the type of construction of a facility combined with the estimated pounds per square inch (psi) of overpressure the structure will withstand. Planning Factors (also Policies) Facts and assumptions upon which the CSP is based, including time available for movement to shelter, shelter space criteria, population distribution for allocation, mode of travel to shelter, travel rate, and maximum distance to shelter. (Estab lished in CSP Step lB.) Population Drainage Area (also Service Area) The geographical area from which the population is allocated to a shelter or group of shelters. A population drainage area is determined by either the capacity of the shelter(s) or the established travel distance as modified by the barriers to movement and other local terrain features. 26 Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2, Ann. 1 Preliminary Analysis The first step in the community shelter planning process, which is a generalized investigation of the relationship of existing shelters· and population. (CSP Step IA) Printouts Various listings of shelter space identified by theNational Fallout Shelter Survey. Protected Space An area of a building or other enclosure which provides protection from fallout. Areas having a PF of less than 40, as well as those meeting OCD fallout shelter criteria, are included. Protection Factor (PF) A number used to express the relationship between the amount of fallout gamma radiation 'that would be received by an unprotected person and the amount that would be received by a person in shelter. An occupant of a shelter with a PF of 40 would be exposed to a dose rate ~40th (2%%) of the rate to which he would be exposed if his location were unprotected. Protection Factor Categories TheNational Fallout Shelter Survey places each shelter space in a category having the following minimum and maximum PF limits: Category PF Category PF 1 ------------20-39 5 ----------150-249 2 ------------40-79 6 ----------250-499 3 ------------80-99 7----------500-1,000 8 _________ Over 1, 000 4 -------~----100-149 Public Fallout Shelter A shelter facility which cont.c'tins fallout shelter meeting OCD criteria, for 50 or more persons, and which has been licensed for public use in an emergency. Resident Population In the National Fallout Shelter Survey, the population living in an area as tabulated by the 1960 Census. Service Area See Population Drainage Area. Shelter Area The portion(s) of a shelter facility which contains shelter meeting OCD fallout shelter criteria. In the case of a public fallout shelter, a shelter area must cont.c'tin space for at least 10 persons. Shelter Complex A natural grouping of shelter facilities defined for planning, administration, andjor operational purposes. Normally a complex will include a maximum of 25 individual shelter facilities, within a diameter of about % mile. Shelter Deficit Area A geographical area in which the population exceeds surveyed shelter spaces. Shelter Development Action taken to provide additional fallout shelter meeting OCD fallout shelter criteria by such means as use of design "slanting" techniques in new construction and modification of existing structures, and the construction of single-purpose fallout shelters. Shelter Development Planning Planning for the elimination of existing shelter deficits and for future shelter needs in terms of shifts and growth in population and projected changes in existing shelter capability. Planning adheres to Federal criteria regarding appropriate shelter requirements. Shelter, Expedient Group fallout shelter constructed on a crash basis in a period of crisis. Shelter Facility A building or subsurface enclosure, other than a single-family home, which contains fallout shelter meeting OCD criteria for 10 or more persons. Shelter Improvement Any action that improves the accessibility, habitability, or quality of shelter. 27 Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2, Ann. 1 Shelter, Improvised Any shelter constructed in an emergency or crisis period by individuals or single families, usually in or near their homes. Shelter Limit Line On a shelter utilization map, the borderline distinguishing sheltered areas from unsheltered areas. Shelter Location Map A map prepared in Step IA of the CSP process indicating all shelter facilities of PF Categories 2-8. Shelter Management The internal organization, administration, and operation of a shelter facility by either pretrained or emergent leadership. Shelter Occupancy Period That period of time during which the radiation hazard is great enough to require persons to remain in shelter. Shelter Space, Planned A planned individual shelter space allotment that may be more or less than the NFSS shelter space requirements of 10 square feet per person. Shelter Space, Surveyed An identified fallout shelter space with a PF of 20 or greater but meeting OCD fallout shelter criteria in all other respects. Shelter Utilization Planning The process. of allocating population to existing fallout shelter space, based on the planning factors and policies established in CSP Step IB. Small Structures Survey (SSS) The analysis of small structures, other than single-family homes, to identify shelter meeting OCD fallout shelter criteria, for 10 or more persons. Standard Location Area (SLA or SL) A small geographic area identified by an 8-digit serial number (SL No.) and represented by a pair of geographic coordinates. Generally, it is equal to a census tract. Support Systems Operating elements of civil defense, not directly a part of the shelter system (and capable of existing independently of it), but which either ensure or enhance the survival capability of the shelter system or replace it in the shelter-emergence (postattack) period; such elements would include radiological monitoring, communications, traffic control, public order (police), firefighting, rescue, decontamination, medical care, public health, and emergency feeding. Time Available for Movement The maximum estimated time for travel to shelter. The recommended travel time is 30 minutes in urban or suburban areas, and 60 minutes in rural areas. Travel Distance The maximum estimated distance the general public is anticipated to be able to travel to shelter within the established travel time. The travel distance is based upon the reasonable speed possible for the anticipated travel mode, multiplied by the travel time. Travel Mode The means of travel to shelter designated by the CSP, based upon the characteristics of the local community. Updating Actions that result in a current inventory of shelter space and/or population. Upgrading Any action that results in physical improvement of existing shelter spaces. 28 Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2, Ann. 2 NATIONAL FALLOUT SHELTER PROGRAM INTRODUCTION In the National Fallout Shelter Program, the immediate objective of locating suitable fallout shelters in existing buildings was accomplished through the National Fallout Shelter Survey (NFSS). The initial shelter survey was completed in Fiscal Year 1963. CE/BuDocks contracted with local A&E firms to make the survey in two phases, using procedures and techniques developed and specified by OCD. The NFSS Phase I operations primarily identified potential fallout shelter areas in all public and private buildings, excluding single-family dwellings, having a fallout protection factor of 20 or higher and a potential capacity of at least 50 persons. The A&E firms analyzed daytime and nighttime population data, identified potential public fallout shelters in assigned geographical areas, and collected structural data for machine computation of protection factors of buildings. Structural data on shielding were sought; however, data on fitness for occupancy or modification were not considered. In NFSS Phase II, a detailed on-site survey was made of buildings identified in Phase I as having PF's of 40 or higher and suitable for fallout shelter. Means were devised for increasing the capacity of all structures and improving the shelter potential of buildings with a PF of less than 100, and cost estimates were prepared for this work. A survey was made to determine the shelter suitability of selected "special facilities," such as caves, mines, and tunnels. The principal improvements considered were additional shielding to increase the amount of protection and ventilation to improve habitability and increase shelter capacity. Following the completion of NFSS Phases I and II, systematic procedures were established for keeping the results of the survey current and for making effective use of the data. These procedures were designed to : ( 1) maintain a current nationwide inventory of available fallout shelter space, (2) add to the inventory any shelter facilities inadvertently omitted in the initial survey, (3) identify and add to the inventory any shelter facilities in the PF 40-99 categories that were omitted previously, ( 4) survey and add to the inventory newly constructed facilities suitable for shelter or facilities that were upgraded or improved to meet the criteria, ( 5) correct errors and discrepancies that may be discovered in the initial NFSS, and (6) analyze facilities that are believed to contain significant shelter space of PF 40 or higher, which were not so reported in the initial survey. Table 1 summarizes the data available from NFSS and indicates how they may be used. A continuing program for licensing, marking, and stocking shelters was also initiated. (Printouts for the various aspects of the program are available.) Obtaining license agreements with building owners to permit the use of acceptable shelter space by the public is an important part of the program. Local governments are responsible for obtaining these agreements. A Federal Government form, "Fallout Shelter License or Privilege," when signed by the property owner, authorizes: ( 1) temporary access by the public to specified shelter space in emergencies, (2) posting and maintenance of shelter signs, ( 3) maintenance of shelter supplies and equipment on the premises, and ( 4) Federal and local government inspection. Public use of the shelter is specified as being "for the sole purpose of temporarily shelt{lring persons during and after any and every actual or impending attack." Public access for testing purposes is not granted and, if desired, would have to be separately agreed upon by the owner and the local government. The agreement entails no monetary payment to or by the owner and may be revoked by the owner's submitting a 90-day written notice. 29 Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2, Ann. 2 TABLE I.-Summary of NFSS data souroes to be used in the CSP 1 NFSS phase Data available Applicability CSP step Phase I Peak population by SL Population vs. shelter tabulation }Preliminary Analysis (I A) A&E base map Shelter location map Category 1 space Deficit-area analysis } Specific Shelter Allocation (I D) Less than 50 capacity Procedures for Development of Deficit-area analysis facilities Shelter (IV) Phase II SL Summary Existing spaces by SL Population vs. shelter Preliminary Analysis (I A) tabulation Improvement estimates Increasing shelter Procedures for Development of Shelter (IV) SL Floor Sum-Existing spaces by facility Shelter location map Preliminary Analysis (I A) mary Specific allocation Specific Shelter Allocation (I D) Improvement estimates Increasing shelter SL Listing Basis of computing shelter Increase shelter spaces Identification of Shelter Deficits space by recomputation (III) Specific Shelter Allocation (I D) Procedures for Development of Shelter (IV) Phase II Updating SL Listing Changes in inventory Population vs. shelter Preliminary Analysis (I A) tabulation SL Floor Sum-Changes in inventory Shelter location map Preliminary Analysis (I A) mary t For further guidance in using the NFSS, see the following OCD publications: National Fallout 'Shelter Survey: Report Formats and Descriptions of Content, Phase$, November 7, 1962; and National Fallout Shelter Survey: Survey, Marking, and Stocking Re~orts-Formats and Explanations, Apri\1964. c Only 'those shelters covered by such written agreeemergency use. The provisions are expected to remain usable for at least 5 years and are considered ments will be stocked. A basic part of the National adequate to sustain life and maintain shelterees Fallout Shelter Program is the official marking of in condition to resume active and productive life public fallout shelters that meet minimum requireupon emergence. ments and that owners permit to be used for this purpose. Standard fallout shelter signs are fur OBTAINING THE NFSS PRINTOUTS nished and installed by the Federal Government. The final objective of theNational Fallout ShelThe data from the NFSS surveys were edited by ter Program is to stock public fallout shelterS that CE/BuDocks and given to the Bureau of the Cenhave been identified, marked, and licensed, Basic sus and the Bureau of Standards for electronic elements in meeting this objeotive are identificadata processing, using an adapted FOSDIC form. tion, development, selection, procurement, distribuThe resultant printouts were then distributed tion, and storage of essential survival items for a through OCD channels to State and local govern2-week shelter period. Essential survival items ments, as shown in figure 1. Since the printouts are: basic food rations, water containers, sanitawere not sent to the local CD agencies in every tion kits, medical kits, and radiological kits. The case, and since additional updating information Federal Government develops, selects, procures, may be available, the NFSS printouts should be and distributes these supplies at the lowest possible obtained. To secure and interpret the NFSS data, costs. Local governments are responsible for reqthe regional office of CE or BuDocks, whichever uisitioning these supplies, placing them in licensed had responsibility for the NFSS in the particular shelters, filling the water containers, and assuring area, should be consulted. The A&E firms should their security, maintenance, and availability for not be contacted for the NFSS printouts. 30 Federal CD Guide, December 1965Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2, Ann. 2 FIGURE I.-Generalized information fiow-NFSS. Phase I Printout Data a basis for preparing the shelter location map Phase I printouts are of limited use in the CSP required in the Preliminary Ar:alysis. Notprocess, since most of the information has been all shelters will be indicated on the A&E basesuperseded by the Phase II and Phase II updating map, since others were added during NFSSoperations. However, the following Phase I inPhase II and Phase II updating program.formation is useful : "Similarly, some buildings may have been de 1. Peak population estimates for both day and leted from the NFSS inventory after Phasenight distributions for every SL. Phase II I was completed.printouts include peak populations only forthose SL's in which there is a fallout shelter Phase II Printout .Data facility. Peak population data are used in The Phase II Stamdard Location PrintoutStep IA, Preliminary Analysis. Booklet consists of: the Standard Location Sum 2. Li~t of buildings with Category 1 space (PF mary (SL SUM), the Floor Summary (FL20-39) and facilities with a capacity of less SUM), and the Standard Location Listing (SLthan 50. These data can be used in Step ID LIST). 1 of the OSP process when interim types of Standard Location Summary.-The SL SUM shelters are considered for· deficit areas. gives· the number of surveyed shelter spaces within 3. The A&E base map prepared by the subcontractors indicates the location of all buildings 1 It is recommended that the reader follow the remainder ofconsidered in NFSS Phase I. This provides this annex with a printout booklet of his own community before him so that he can apply the e"xamples to his own situation. 31 796-724 0-66-5 Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2, Ann. 2 each SL, by category. For CSP purposes, the in Step IA. The name and street address or loNFSS Phase II SL SUM provides figures for the cation of each facility is listed, together with the population vs. shelter tabulation that must be prenumber of shelter spaces, by PF category. pared in Step IA. See figure 2. Items 8, 9, and 10 As shown in figure 3, the first line (items 1 list the resident, daytime peak, and nighttime peak through 13) of the Floor Summary printout repopulation for each SL in which there is a shelter peats much of the information given in the first facility. (For SL's without shelter space, refer line of the SL SUM. Items 14 and 15 identify the to the NFSS Phase I printout.) particular shelter facility by number, name, and The existing shelter spa~es, by PF category, are address. Items 22 and 23 are column headings for listed in columns 15 and 16. Column 24 gives the the existing shelter space in the facility, which is number of spaces in Categories 4 through 8, but indicated by floor. Item 31 is the total number of no totals are given for Categories 2 and 3 or the spaces for the facility in PF Categories 4-8, Catemore inclusive Categories 2 through 8. gory 2, and Category 3. Columns 18 through 23 contain estimates for inStep IV, Procedures for Development ofcreasing the number of shelter spaces. These data Shelter, can use some of the data from items 24will be useful in CSP Step IV. through 29, which give information on modifyingFloor Summary.-The FL SUM gives the numexisting facilities to increase the number of spaces. ber of shelter spaces for each facility and indicates the number of spaces on each floor within the faStandard Location Listing.-The SL LIST is a cility. The FL SUM printout is a basic source of printout of the data recorded on the form used in information for preparing the shelter location map preparing Phase II of the NFSS (certain dimen (I) (l) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) 1591 0 3156SL 13Al-OOOI FO AI t 23 ~ASS. SPUNGFIElO P~ 2 u s~• ) c 1 SL 3 (! )2 Sl SUfi Sl 1311-0001 FOAl t 23 "ASS. SPRINGFIELD (14 All FACiliTIES Q 1591 C 3156 N (15) ( 16) PF All EXIST S~IEl(JB~PACES AttEs~19tosT VENT(l~~ACES PDWE~2 ~EOUIRE~ENT SPAt~F)AODED TofVoss IIBER TOTAlS TOTALS NUMBER TOTALS KW TOTAlS NUMBER TOTALS SPAtESUT SPACES 627 9034 15.8 2435 627 11159 9"'48 317 232 83 53 1060 0.6 415 53 1475 6 22 22 139 7 30 30 5977 523 4640 8.o 3420 662 10917 684 984 1469 12320 56.0 12935 H69 12495 2464995 117 76 827 18.9 2995 76 932 6BO ' 601t 8 "3 2976 5 1B32 24030 216 3024 44.9 11164 201tB 27054 2048 2 19U 8 1 5 5 409 30007 984 2'164 30905 141t.2 33364 lt935 61t032 6903 (24)TCTAL 1968 1971 (25) PF ·4-8 25)PF 4-8 ....__~~--- FOR SHELTER SPAtES 1N FACiliTIES WHERE EXISTING POWER IS AVAilABLE 302H (lb)TOUL CCST OF AUX POW /E~s1"ill:J Spa.~ S~CIAI Fo..c.ili:,.ies DIJJ 1;.,/'rtJIIIII_J by Pf, {o1"o..l fA/Ju<:J.. Q.,.(. I"c.l• J.~..l.. p,.,.,. f'ac~ bf.1~.S J ro /IIC,.C.AI'C -tire. Nu~J,e,.. 15 SU'"' 0 .f W,.'f.J..,;.. rite."E.J.tsTI'!J o+ Slt~lfu· Spa.c.~s CA~Ot-IU lf -8 S{JtLcCI '1 rt:A.bu/4 TIDh FIGURE 2.-NFSS Phase II Standard Location summary. 32 [) Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2, Ann. 2 PICIS fL SHIEL {30)Pf2 (30) Pf1 IIUII!ER 96] 03 511 04 15.7 2890 9U 05 1112 Bl 1442 8652 38.8 7210 1442 8652 ...2 12 814 6188 37.2 6730 114 6188 )I sa 27 702 2.2 J10 27 702 1011 2695 963 1442 8652 911 6890 93.9 17140 2353 15542 >.,t._ ol4. 1-.l'!.,.."'"l f'ltt.. Fd..c.i/l":fy "fD hac;r-ue. N1AMJIC~ ef Sle«.l#'l~ Spcc~s FIC 01103 IPHTIIEIIT MEST Ml"' 635 E 21 ST $PUIIIifiELD PV 43 USE 11 OWN 4 PEST R HEW 0 SPEC FAt - EIISliNii SPICES fL SHIELD SPICES ACCESS VEIIT SPACES PDVER REQ. SPACES ADDEO TOT POSS Pf4-l Pf] Pf2 Pl'1 -u TOTAll TOlALI IIUMIU TOTALS K.w. TOTALS NUMBER COST SPACES 164 210 01 1.5 984 164 490 02 210 OJ UJ 01 914 1.0 738 123 FAC TCT 21l MO 914 2.5 1722 287 FAt 01105 KIUIWIA CAVE 4 Ill SOUTMMEST SPUIICf IELC PY 81 USE 99 OWN 3 PEST B HEW 0 SPEC FAt 2 EIISll"' SPACES fL SHIELO SPACES ACCESS VENT SPACES POWER REQ. SPACES ADDEO TOT PCSS Pf4-l Pfl Pf2 PF1 -8Ea TOTAU TOTALI NUMIU TOTALS K.W. TOTALS NUMBER COST SPACES 226 7960 4.8 3120 398 11080 624 fAt TOT 226 7960 4.8 3120 398 11080 624 LGNCffUI!-fUM SCIII!I!L SniiOGFIELO PV 31 USE 21 OWN 3 PEST N HEW 5 SPEC FAt 3 EIISTIIIG SPICES fL SHIELD SPACES ACCESS VENT SPACES POWER REQ. SPACES ADDEO TOT PCSS Pf4-l Pf3 Pf2 PH IIUIIIER TOTALI TOTALS NUMBER TOTALS K.W. TOTALS NUMBER COST SPACES 24 172 .4 268 43 172 FIGURE 3.-NFSS Phase II floor summary. sional entries are not included on the printout). the OCD 1963 Annual Report.2 Such recalculaThe data appear in the sequence in which they octions should be done with the guidance of CE or cur in the recording book. BuDocks personnel who are thoroughly familiar For CSP purposes, item 27 can be used to deterwith the mechanics of the NFSS. mine the method used in calculating the shelter Updating Phase II Data spaces. See figure 4. A "V" indicates that the shelter space is inadequately ventilated and 500 A continuing program has been initiated for upcubic feet of space per person was the determinant dating the information contained in the NFSS of capacity. "A" is the symbol used where venti Phase II printouts. Updating is undertaken for lation is adequate (a minimum of 3 cu. ft. per per the following changes in the inventory:son) and 10 square feet of floor area was the 1. Addition of new data, such as a facility that shelter space determinant. In facilities where the has been recently constructed or was overvolume formula was originally used, additional looked in the original surveys. shelter space can often be obtained by recalculat ing the number of spaces, using the sliding scale 2 1963 Annual Report, "Minimum Requirements for Fallout Shelter," Office of Civil Defense, Washington, D.C., 1963, table 1, relating airflow to volume requirements found in p. 115. 33 Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2, Ann. 2 N {!~~91 OCT. W! 1962 (13) (14) (I~) (16) {17) ~18) (19) ~ZO) (ZI) (ZZ) FU 00001 PT 01 REV 0 CC~MERCE TRUST BLOC 119 ~TH ST SPRINCFIE~ py ~3 U E 55 OWN ~ PE T N HEW 0 SPEC FAt (Z~ pz> em~ SHIHb28~PACES AttE~~9)tOST VENP~)PACES POioER JmiREMENT SPAC S ADDED ToP~hss JZ3~ P (Z 7~ S Cll CAT SPACES Fl!ftk BAS S NUMBER SEA TOTAL$ lEA TOTALS NU~BER SEA TOTALS KW SEA TOTALS NUMBER TOTAL$ SPACES B 00035• se v 2l 26 702 2.2 05• 310 27 702 62 00 5 00~62 82 v BB~ 7 6l8B 37.2 C5• 6730 88~ 6188 13~6 01 3 -1 01132• u A 1HZ 8652 38.8 05• 7210 1442 1652 1~42 0~ 2 00963 03 A 05 ~· 00578• 04 A 15.7 05• 2890 571 06 ] 00963 05 (34)PUT TOT (3~) 1075PF ~-8 14~2 8652 911 6890 93.9 171~0 2]53 155~2 3~28 4-8 14~2 8652 911 6890 93.9 171~0 2353 155~2 3~28(36) FA' TC7 10HPF FAC.00803 PT 01 IIEV 0 APARTMENT WEST NINC 635 E 21 ST SPRINGFIElD PY ~3 USE 11 OWN ~ PEST R HEW 0 SPEC FAC - , EXIST SHIELD SPACES ACCESS COST VENT SPACES POWER REQUIREMENT SPACES AOOED TOT PcSS STORY CAT SPAC&S FLOOR US IS NUMBER SEA TOTALS SEA TOTALS NUMBER SEA TOTALS ltll lEA TOTALS NUMBER TOTALS SPACES 08 A I 8 9U loO 06• 738 lZJ01 '" 00123• oz 2 00210 01 A OJ 2 00210 02 A UU. TOT 12JPF ~-8 98~ 1.0 738 UJ FAC: 00803 PT 02 IIEV 0 APARTMENT wEST WING 635 E 21 ST SPRINGFIELD PV ~3 USE 11 OWN ~ PEST R HEN 0 SPEC FAC - , EXIST SHIELD SPACES ACCESS COST VENT SPACES POWER REQUIREMENT SPACES ADDED TOT POSS STOU.UT SPACES FLOC II BASIS NUMBER SEA TOTALS SEA TOTAlS NUMBER SEA TOTALS KW SEA TOTALS NUMBER TOTALS SPACES 01 ,. 0016~· 01 A loS 06• 98~ 166 oz z 00280 02 A OJ z 00210 OJ A ran TOT 164PF 4-8 1.5 984 166 ,._, JAC TOT 217PF 914 z.s 1722 217 F.AC 00005 PT 01 REV 5 KAUMANA CAVE 4 Ml SOUTHWEST SPRINGFIElD PV 81 USE 99 OWN 3 PEST 8 HEW 0 SPEC FAC 2 , EXIST SHIElD SPACES ACCESS COST VENT SPACES POWER REQUIRE"ENT SPACES ADDED TOT POSS STCIIY CAT SPACES FLOOR BASIS NUMBER SEA TOTAlS SEA TO TAU NU"8ER SEA TOTALS KW SEA TOTALS NUMBER TOTALS SPACES • 00153 y 272 20 '"0 J.2• 05• 2125 272 7565 625 7 00030 y 20 1060 0.6• 05• 415 53 1415 8J• 00022 v· " )8 zo 760 a.,. 05• JOO )I 1060 60 FIGURE 4.-NFSS Phase II Standard Location listing. 2. Deletion of existing data, such as a facility Updated data are available for the FL SUM within a building that has been. razed or and the SL LIST (see figures 5 and 6) but not for otherwise destroyed. the SL SUM. To obtain the total number of 3. Revision of existing data because of changes existing spaces in an SL, the data from the upin the use, type of ownership, or other dedated SL LIST should be added to the NFSS scriptive data-or changes in the!number of Phase II SL SUM data, or-subtracted if there shelter spaces either existing or possible. were deletions. 34 Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2, Ann. 2 Jlf--ss ~Ita../.. ·--,..c!'-s {II) IZ -, I ~ (F.t 1&6mJ [,lLR BElCHER CDDP &PIS 3030 SD DCE&N BLV ) I ( lllth:ltl&4 ~J 5l) J~·h D~~SJ .~~;>_ "~n SPE~ 1lic 9 ) H ....,,... Fac.l.~,7 EXISTING SPACES FL Actes's veNr sPfces 1 ~!=~~ s·;~~~:u ·~~~~,Rt~OT&LS N~==~=~· Aifo~g51 ~~;:~:: TOTAl$ NUMBER TOTAL$ ~~~~.. PF.cil# ' to 1-..c.,.~•s~ #"It !If. N....,".. •-F s,-e.~:rs -...T .FAt o~b~Aa~1 iJtl~u~S~E(~\nt~l-omb~~r5~J~p~e~k~l~ 0~~----------,,,.A~LMM'&~E~&~tYH-rn~~~~~tks~4~4~tOmt~O~NDOTfoA~o~wrp~U~N~BEr--JCiJ~Z~l--------,,~~r6-~l~H~lv~~~f-~s~PE~L~1~~~~b~-~-- EllSfl~9 ~PACES ~i0 l SHIELD< W.ces AccU~ l veN~2 i~aces •a•ek 2 Uo. sPAcEF idoeo rOT< ~6~s PF.... I Pf2ll NUMBER fDTlll tOTALI NUMBER IOIILI K.W. IOIILI NUMBER COSt SPitES no 2590 no 2590 lTO no 2590 3TO 2590 416FAt TOT lttltiiiiiii-IPIUftiiiiiNIIIIIU-...11111.......--IIIIIIIIfillllllltiiiihiiitlllllllllllillllllllllliiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiintlllllltllttllllllllltllllltiiHIIIHIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIftl ( 5) ( 6) ( 8) (9) FT STEWART "· • --~~-24, _,1'-''-=-"-'----'-'=-'--=·'------- 10 -;F;c&:',;t;.''="1..a'=="'s~-----------.I"'Aautii NO 2009 FT STEWORT GEORGIA (~ 2 ) J~ 'J1 usefJ~L~hes\.~LHe\iil-sp<1Jc~1-i;iltc..-----~IS~I:.l)_$1'ACES <:Lo) smg ~~P_ACES____a~Ws VEN~2 i~&CES Pa~Ulaeo. SPAcU~)OOED ro~'iJss ---------~,F~T~REY_7_____PALii-i!EAtH ToiiERS"-COCONUTRDW-i'&Dilie-·-··--Pi· 57 USE 11 OWN 4· ·pest -HEw 0 SPEC FAC (21) (22) ~23f (24) (2S) (26) (26~ ~27f {28t ~9~ flO) -----STORY r:T ~ates FLOOR BASfs-N-u~~W~e~!~~~{Ld~iE ~om! NUII:eh~:A~~~AU POW~~ :E~ul;~;:~! NU~::RE ~~~:~s 0 ~p=~~~ 310 2590 370 ----(fjf&ii~~OT_lll..l!MH."'PF;o-:4-~8--'-------------310 2590 no (14) {IS) (lb) {17) {IB) (!9) (lO) ..__ji_Q) (II) (p)_ ______ ·------·-···-··----·-{13) FAt 00017 PT 06 IIEV 7 PALII BEACH TOWERS 44 COCONUt ROil PALII BE-. --.-·· PV S1 OS'E' u·OliN.. 4· PEST ..; HEN 0 SPEC. FAt {21) (22)· (23) {24) (2S) {26) (26) (27) PF EXIST SHIELD SPACES ACCESS COST VENT SPACES POWER ~:6uiREMENT SPACEf~DDED TM'')POSS --STORY CATS-PAt.ES FLOOR BASi-s-NUMBER lEA TOTALS ·seA·. TOTALS NUMiiEii-IEA-TbfAU ... KW SEA . TOTALs· NUMBEII. TOTALS SPACES 46 4 000'6 T A --·-·-----zuooo21 T A 46 (31) PART TOT 46Pf 4-8 ··no 2590 416 {32) FAC. TOT 46PF 4-1 IIIIIIIIIIIUIIUUUIIUIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIItiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiUIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIUitlllltiiiiiiiiiUUUIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIUIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIItllllltlllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllltl ...(afaaaaaFiiC2CN·1···si.· 32710014 FAC 00058 DELETED IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIUIIIIIUIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIUIIWIIIIIIIIIIIIIII'IUUUJJ.UUUJUIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIUHWUJIJffltll~lllltllfllllllll'll-tl~···'ll'lllttiiiiUIIIUIIIIIIIIIIUIUIIIIJitUIIIIIIIIIIII (~)aaaaa F:O C4 CN .12 .S~ 33K10001 PT 01 FAt 04805 REPLACED AND CHANGED AS FOLLOWS- FA~10{48Q5 pf1 ~)1_RtJ4----·-·-BARRACKS NO 2009-~1PSTEWART GEORGIA ---~·>P~1 ~l uu ow~7l PJW~ Ho s<:U FAt-c (21~ {22) {23) -{24) {2S) (26) {26) {27) {28) U9) (3o) PF EXIST SHIELD SPACES ACCESS COST VENT SPACES PONER REQUIREMENT SPACES ADDEO TQT POSS STORY CAT SPACES FLOOR BASIS NUMBER lEA TOTAlS lEA TOTAU NUMBER SEA TOTAU KW SEA TOTALI NUMBER TOTALS SPACES 40~___!_ . _2BCID__ 400 2800 700 00 I 00300 I v ---·;. 01 zu 001)5 1 02 2U 00135 z A 400 2800 TOO {3l) ....4.00_ _2800 PART ror -· __300!'_f ~---------·-----·-- .......)~;)..f.Af..lRr...............fSR~f...~.f.........................................................................~~.~.............~~~9............,.........,..................~~~..........~~~~... ,,,, ....~?.~.. (I) (2) (3) {4) {S) {6) (7) . (8) (9) . PH Z S~ ~1ST S~ 31H1-001~ FO..C3 C 00. ALA•. _CO CALHOUN_____ -·-···-..... II 0. N JlN. 20, l964 PG (C) aaaaa FO t)__C.N 06 SL 31H100U PT 01 FAC._ J.~~O~._j)~Sl;_RI~_!UE..O~TA CHANGEII. fO~ FAt 12202 PT 01 REV T .HEADQUARTERS ILOG 1 ANN ARM'f DEPOT 4 . PV 57 USE 45 O~N (10) (II) {12) (13) (14) (IS) (16) ~!7) FIGURE 6.-NFSS Phase II updating, SL list. 36 Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2, Ann. 3 ESTIMATING SMALL-AREA POPULATION In Step ID of the CSP, information is needed on current peak daytime and peak nighttime populations in small areas. The estimates in the NFSS are generally unreliable because they are out of date, or were estimated inaccurately when the original calculations were made. Further more, the area used in making the estimates-the SL or census tract-is geographically too large for preparing a specific allocation. In areas where specific shelter allocations are to be prepared, new peak population estimates should be made. This section on making such estimates is included be cause of the special requirements that are involved in estimating peak population. OCD will make available upon request estimated 1965, 1970, and 1975 populations for each SL in each CSP area. These estimates are based on Bureau of the Census population growth factors for each county, applied uniformly to each SL in the county. These estimates may not be as accurate as population data prepared by municipal or metropolitan area planning departments or commissions. However, they should be reviewed by the local planner who is CSP project leader, to determine whether any of the data can be used. In the case of smaller CSP areas, where the CSP is developed through direct assistance by the CSP Officer, State (CSPOS), the 1965-1970-1975 population data may be of substantial assistance, in cases where the locality does not have an urban planning department. Therefore, the CSPOS should carefully review the 1965-1970-1975 population estimates provided by OCD, with a view to using the estimates if they appear valid and if no better estimates can be made. In addition, planners should note that when EFPH surveys are made of fallout protection existing in· single-family dwellings, the printouts provided to local CSP project teams will include the number of occupants in each dwelling unit for which a survey form was submitted. This in formation may be helpful in updating popula tion data for theSL's in the CSP area. Finally, as noted previously in this appendix, the field work required for the Small Structures Survey may provide an opportunity for joint work by the urban planner and the CE/BuDocks field team, to obtain data on dwelling unit loca tions. These can provide one basis for small-area population estimates. ESTIMATING PEAK POPULATION Discussions should be held with the local A&E firm to determine the degree of accuracy of the original NFSS estimates. The most reliable way of determining this is to analyze the estimating program of the A&E firm to judge whether it was adequately planned and carried out. For example, were the estimates made at random by a surveyor working in the SL, or were the data built up according to a specific formula, starting with census data and adding or subtracting changes in population? 'If the NFSS peak population estimates are reliable, a ratio method relating resident population and peak population can be used to update them. This method is based on the assumption that the peak population would change at the same rate as the resident population. Adjustment may be needed for some SL's, as in the case where, through urban renewal, housing units were cleared and the re-use is commercial. The generalized formula for estimating current peak population is: NFSS Resident Current Resident Population Population NFSS Peak Population Current Peak Population The NFSS resident population is given in the NFSS Phase I printouts and is usually the 1960 census figure for the tract. In the case of central 37 Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3. App. 2, Ann. 3 city SL's in SMSA's, the resident population figures used in this formula should be SMSA totals. For other SL's, current resident population figures can be gathered for each SL (i.e., census tract) . This can be done from recent aerial photographs, building permits, or growth-rate studies. Specific methods of estimating small-area resident population growth are given below. Where partial8L's are to be considered, the peak population can be divided proportionately by analyzing the activities in each part, using landuse maps, aerial photographs, field surveys, and telephone surveys with major establishments in the SL. For example, if an SL with a peak population of 10,000 is to be divided geographically in half, it may be inaccurate to assume that 5,000 people are located in each portion. If a shopping center, office building, or high school is located within the SL, it will be a node of population concentration and should be considered in proportioning the population. If the present peak populations are to be calculated without reference to the NFSS peak populations, the following generalized approach may be used: Present population, less labor force leaving the area, less school children leaving the area, less shoppers or others leaving the area, plus labor force entering and working m the area, plus school children entering the area, plus shoppers or others entering the area. Total= net peak population. ESTIMATING THE RESIDENT POPULATION The resident population for 1960 can be obtained from the U.S. Census of Population, 1960; and the Cens1ts of Housing. Population, labor force, commutation destination, and other data, by census tract are available for 180 areas, including most SMSA's, in the Census of Population, Series PHC(l) Census Tract Reports. (Addendum 1 lists the areas for which census tract data are available.) City block statistics with information on housing units and population are availa:ble for 421 dendum 2 lists the available city block reports.) For other areas where small-area population estimates are needed, the Bureau of the Census will prepare enumeration district printouts and maps on request for a fee. The PH-1 series gives detailed information on housing and population. Special Table PH-4 in the series contains data, by enumeration district, on the labor force ( occupation industry, employment status) and on the means of transportation and place of work. The 1960 resident population data can be updated to the present by using any of the following methods: Estimating Resident Population, Using Demolition and Construction Data Table I demonstrates a method of updating resident population estimates, using demolition and construction data compiled by the local building department or a similar organization. The Bureau of the Census publishes monthly reports, by municipality, on building permits in Construction Reports, Building Permits, Housing Authorized in Individual, Permit-18suing Places, Series C40-67 These reports are also summarized annually. TABLE !.-Estimating resident population, using demnll tion and constru-etion data 1. Population, 1960 2. Population in group quarters, 1960 3. Population in households, 1960 (1) (2) 4. Number households, 1960 (number of occupied housing units) 5. Population per household, 1960 6. Number housing units, 1960 7. New housing units (4/1/60 to pres ent) additions less demolitions 8. Total present housing units (6) + ( 7) 9. Occupancy rate, 1960 ( 4) + (6) 10. Estimated total occupied housing units, as of estimate date (8) X (9) 11. Estimated population in households, as of estimate date (10) X (5) 12. Population in group quarters on esti mate date (from field survey or estimate) 13. Estimated present population (11) + cities and urban areas in the HC(3) series. (Ad-(12) 38 Estimating Resident Population, Using Aerial Photographs If data on building construction are incomplete, recent aerial photographs can be used, provided they show all structures. The number of housing units in an area can be found by counting the resi dential structures shown in the photographs and multiplying this total by the number of_ housing units in the structure. The size of a building, length of shadow, and shape are usually sufficient to determine the type of structure-as, for exam ple, a three-story garden apartment with 12 units. By comparison with 1960 aerial photographs, Sanborn maps, or land-use maps, the number of new structures and housing units can be calculated. The method shown in the table assumes a constant population-per-household ratio. This factor can be adjusted by comparing the 1950 population per-household ratio with the 1960 ratio and extrapolating the result to the present. However, since many census tracts and enumeration districts were changed from 1950 to 1960, direct comparisons, by these divisions, cannot always be made. In such cases, population-per-household figures for a larger area, such as the entire community, will have to be used if shifts in household occupancy are to be considered. Estimating Resident Population, Using GrowthRate Estimates Ifdata on construction and demolition or recent aerial photographs are unavailable, population data for small areas (census tracts or enumeration districts) may be updated by using growth-rate estimates.1 The population for the total planning area is first updated from 1960 to the present or to a recent fixed date for which data are available. 1 Addendum 3 lists the State agencies, as of 1960, that were estimating population in lntercensal years. The Bureau of the Census, In Current Population Reports, Population Estimates, Series P-25, estimates the population for the following 15 majon SMSA's, Including the central city and the constituent counties: New York St. Louis Chicago Washington, D.C. Los Angeles-Long Beach Cleveland Philadelphia Baltimore Boston Newark Detroit Minneapolis-St. Paul San Francisco-Oakland Buffalo Pittsburgh Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2, Ann. 3 The methods used most frequently for updating population estimates are: 1. Mathematieal projectiom. a. Future population can be estimated on the basis of a projection of previous trends, using an arithmetic extrapolation.· With this method, the yearly numerical population change in an area in the intercensal period is assumed to equal the yearly numerical change in the area in a recent census period; that is (population for year X)= (population in 1960) +(numberofyearscovered) X (numerical population change per year) b. The estimates may also be made by geometric extrapolation. This method is based on the assumption that the average yearly rate of change will remain the same as in the past period ; that is (population for year X)= (population m 1960) X (Population in Year X+ 1) Jn [ (Population in Year X) ' where n is the number of years covered. c. More detailed analyses of past population figures can be made by fitting a line to the plotted population growth curves, using the least squares method. 2. Natnral increase and migration To the 1960 census population are added (1) intercensal natural increase (births minus deaths), and (2) the estimated migration total derived from past trends and school enrollment information. For any smaller part of the entire area, the rate of growth of the entire community should be considered, although the smaller area may not always follow the pattern of the community itself. For example, in areas where there has been extensive clearance (i.e., highway construction or urban renewal projects), tl:w population may even have 39 Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2, Ann. 3 decreased. The alternatives for a hypothetical area could be listed as : Decline-special calculation. Static-no change in resident population. Low growth rate-community growth rate minus X%. Average growth rate-community growth rate. High growth rate-community growth rate plus X%. For each census tract or other designated small area, the 1960 resident population is updated to the estimate date by applying the growth rate that is most reasonable (e.g., if the population of a community increased 5% between 1960 and 1964, and the tract being considered encompassed a generally stable residential area, a low growth rate factor of 2.5% could be used.) Determining the most reasonable growth rate for each small area would require judgments based on the best available data, such as age of structures (from the U.S. Census of Housing), amount of land available for development (land-use maps), reports or field surveys of recent residential building activity, reference to building permits, subdivision approvals, and/or certifications of occupancy. In communities of less than 100,000, the planner's knowledge of the area, supplemented by the previously mentioned indicators, should be accurate enough to provide reasonably reliable decisions. Estimating Changing Population To make a reasonably accurate estimate of the peak population, the changing population (those persons leaving or entering the area) must be added to, or subtracted from, the resident population. This changing population includes members of the labor force, school children, shoppers, and others. Labor Force Leaving the Area As mentioned previously, Special Table PH-4 of the U.S. Census of PopUlation, and Table P-3 of the Census Tract Reports, contain data on the labor force, by enumeration district and census tract. They also include reports on the means of transportation and place of work and on the · destination of the labor force, by city and county. Members of the labor force who "work at home" should be subtracted from the total labor force figures. The category "walk to work" can be analyzed by studying the type of industry and a landuse map. Thus, if the tables indicate that 100 people walk to work, but there are no commercial or industrial establishments in the statistical area, it is clear that they "left the area" and should be deducted from the resident population. I£ the Bureau of the Census tables are not available, the number of persons in the labor force can be estimated by using rates for community participation in the labor force derived from the 1960 Census of Population, Economic and Social Characteristics, or recent data from the State departments of employment or labor. (The participation rate for men from 25 to 55 approaches 100 percent. Although it varies for "·omen by age and marital status, about one-third of the women 14 years of age and over are in the labor force.) School Children Leaving the Area Whether school children should be counted at the school or at home for the peak daytime population depends on the shelter capability and fallout shelter plans for schools. For example, it may be determined that the local elementary schools provide the best option for shelter. Since the elementary schools tend to be within a short travel time of the home for most school children, the plan would count on their being at the school or proceeding to it in the event of an attack. Junior and senior high school students would be subtracted, since they would be leaving the area. An estimate of their number can be derived by using the PH-1 enumeration district data or census tract data that give the population by yearly age groups up to age 20. Information on elementary school enrollment can be obtained from the local school board. Shoppers and Others Leaving the Area If recent origin and destination studies have been made in the community, there may be a statistical basis for estimating the percentage of the at-home resident population that would be shopping outside the area or otherwise away from home. Where the maximum possible peak daytime population is to be used for planning, a reduction due to shoppers leaving the area would not be considered, but other transients would be calculated. 40 Labor Force Entering and Working in the Area The most detailed statistics on the labor force, by location, are compiled monthly by the State departments of employment or similar State organizations. Some important groups not covered by unemployment insurance, such as doctors and railroad workers, should be analyzed separately if their numbers are statistically significant. The departments of employment list the number of covered employees, by establishment. Since the information is not public, it is not always possible to obtain it for planning purposes. Field or telephone surveys of major employers or data compiled by the local Chamber of Commerce can be used to build up the labor force population. If information is already available on the numbers and types of establishments by area, by landuse, by square feet, or by acre, it may be possible to apply appropriate ratios developed through field survey to calculate the labor force in a particular geographical area. Actual field surveys of Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2, Ann. 3 commercial and industrial areas are an effective way of obtaining this information. However, it is also an expensive and time-consuming operation that will generally be outside the scope of CSP contracts. School Children Entering the Area The local school board can furnish enrollment figures for public schools. Private schools, colleges, and similar institutions should also be considered. Shoppers or Others Entering the Area Estimating shoppers and other visitors presents the same difficulties as estimating the labor force. Field surveys and telephone interviews with major stores, service establishments, theaters, museums, and other attractions can be used. Aerial photos of parking areas or parking studies may be used as an index of downtown population. Traffic counts or origin and destination traffic studies may also provide information on CBD peak population. 41 Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2, Ann. 3 Addendum I CENSUS TRACTS PHC (1) SERIES l0f:~i~~.~~~~~u~:~~~!1t~e~~~1a~t1~oe~~~~1!t~~n~~~\15ct/;;1<~~c:tli~~)~~\~~~~~~~ro:t~~~~~~~ri~t25~~~~!::~tr~-~·,·t;~~i;~I~i~)1~~~~!ri~rih:-~~:~cc ~~ 0~~:6s~~~~e are tracted. In 13 or the reports, tracts adjacent to the SMSA are abo shownl 1. Abilene, Tex.' 46. F:1ll River, Mass.-R.I. 91. Middlesex County, N.J.• 136. Han Diego, Calif. 2. Akron, Ohio 47. Flint, Mich. 92. Milwa.ukee, Wis. 137. San Francisco-Oakland, 3. Albav.-Schenectady-Troy, 48. Fort Smith, Ark.2 93. Minneapolis-St. Paul, Calif. N.. 49. Fort Wayne, Ind. Minn. 138. San Jose, Calif. 4. Albuquerque, N. Mex. 50. Fort Worth, Tex. 94. Mobile, Ala.' 139. Santa Barbara, Calif. 5. Allentown-Bethlehem-95. Monroe, La.' 140. Savannah, Ga. Easton, Pa.-N:J.' 51. Fresno, Calif. 96. Montgomery, Ala. 52. Gadsden, Ala. 141. Scranton, Pa.• 6. Altoona, Pa.2 97. Muncie, Ind. 7. Ann Arbor, Mich. 5:3. Galveston-Texas City, T<'x. 98. Muskegon·· Muskegon 142. Seattle, WasiL 54. Gary-Hammond-East Heights, Mich.' 143. ShrevcCort, La. 8. Atlanta, Ga. 9. Atlantic .City, N.J.2 Chicago, Ind. 99. Nashville, Tenn. 144. Sioux ity, Iowa ' 145. Somerset County, N.J.• 10. Augusta, Ga.-S.C.1 55. Grand Rapids, l\1ich. 1 100. New Bedford, Mass.' 56. Green Bay, Wis.' 146. South Bend, Ind. 11. Austin, Tex. 57. Greensboro-High Point, 101. New Rritain, Conu.• 147. Spokane, Wash. N.C. 102. New Haven, Conn. 148. Springfield, Mo. 12. Bakersfield, Calif.• 58. Greenville, S.C. 149. Springfield, Ohio 13. Baltinore, Md. 103. New Orleans, La. 59. Hamilton-Middletown, 104. New York, N.Y.• 150. Sprinf,field-Chicopee 14. Baton Rou~, La. 0hio Ho yoke, Mass.' Tex.' 60. Harrisburg, Pa. 106. Newport News-Hampton, 15. Beaumont-ort Arthur, 105. Newark, N.J. 151. Stamford, Conn. 16. Binghamton, N.Y. Va.1 61. Hartford, Conn.' 152. Steubenville-WPii·ton, 17. Birmingham, Ala. 107. Norfolk-Portsmouth, Va. 62. Honolulu, Hawaii Ohio-W. Va. 18. Boston, Mass.• 108. Norwalk, Conn.1 63. Houston, Tex. 153. Stockton, Calif. 19. Bridgeport, Conn. 109. Odessa, Tex. 64. Indianapolis, Ind. !54. ~racuse, N.Y. 20. Brockton, Mass. 110. Ogden, Utah • 65. Jackson, Mich. !55. acoma, Wash. 66. Jacksonville, Fla.2 156. Tampa-St. Petersburg, 21. Buffalo, N.Y. Ill. Oklahoma City, Okla.' 67. Jersey C1ty, N..J. Fla. 22. Canton, Ohio 112. Omaha, Nehr.-Iowa 1 68. .Johnstown, Pa.1 157. Texarkana, Tex... Ark.' 23. Charleston, S.C. 113. Orla•,do, Fla.' 69. Kalamazoo, Mich. 158. Toledo, Ohio 24. Charlotte, N.C. 114. Paterson-Clifton-Passaic, 70. Kansas City, Mo.-Kans.' 3 !59. Topeka, Kans. 25. Chattanooga, Tenn.-Ga.' N.J. __// 160. Trenton, N.J. 115. Peoria, Ill. 26. Chicago, Ill. 71. Knoxville, Tenn.' 27. Cincinnati, Ohio-Ky. 1 116. Philadelphia, Pa.-N.J. 72. Lancaster, l'a. 161. Tucson, Ariz. ------28. Cleveland, Ohio 73. Lansing, Mich.' 117. Phoenix, Ariz. tn2. Tulsa, Okla.' 29. Colorado S~rings, Colo. 74. Laredo, Tex. 118. Pittsburgh, Pa. 163. Tyler, Tex. 30. Columbia, 119. Pittsfield, Ma8s.3 .C. 75. Las Vegas, Nev.' 164. Utica-Rome, N. Y 120. Portland, Maine76. J.awrcnce-Haverhill, Hi5. Waco, Tex. 31. Columbus, Ga.-A1a. Mass.-N.H.' 121. Portland, Oreg.-Wash. 166. Washington, D.C.-Md. 32. Columbus, Ohio i7. Lexington, Ky. 122. Providence ·Pnwtuckci, Va. 33. Corpus Christi, Tex. 78. Lima, Ohio R.J.-Mass.• 167. Waterbury, Co!in. 34. Dallas, Tex. 79. Lincoln, Nebr.' 123. Pueblo, Colo. 168. Waterloo, Iowa 35. Davenport-Rock Island-80. Little Rock-North Little 124. Raleigh, N.C. 169. Wheding, W. \'a.-Ohio ' Moline, Iowa-Ill.' Rock, Ark. 125. Reading, Pa. 170. Wiehita, KanB. 36. Dayton, Ohio • 126. Richmond, Va. 37. Decatur, Ill. 81. Lorain~Elyria, Ohio 127. Rochester, N.Y. 171. Wichita Falls, Tex.' 38. Denver, Colo. 82. Los Angeles-Long Beach, 128. Rockford, Ill. 172. Wilkes-Barre-Hazleton Pa. 39. Des Moines, Iowa Calif. 129. Sacramento, Calif.' 173. Wilmington, Dd.-N.J: 40. Detroit, Mich. 83. Louisville, Ky.-Ind. 130. Saginaw, Mich. 174. Winston,-Salem, N.C. 84. Lowell, Mass. 175. WorcPster, Mass.3 41. Duluth-Superior, Minn.-85. Lubbock, Tex.' 131. St. J.ouis, Mo.-Ill. 176. York, Pa.' Wis.' 86. Macon, Ga.1 132. Salt Lake City, Utah' 177. Youngstown \V:u-rcl!, 42. Durham, N.C. 87. Madison, Wis. 133. San Angelo, Tex.' Ohio' • 43. El Paso, Tex. 88. Manchester, N.H. 134. San Antonio, Tex. 178. Mayagilcz, P.R. 44. Erie, Pa. 89. Memphis, Tenn. 135. San Bernardino-·River-179. Ponce, P.R. 45. Evansville, Ind.-Ky. 90. Miami, Fla. side-Ontario, Calif. 180. San Juan, P.R.' 1 Central city (or cities) and only part of balance of SMSA are tracted 4 This county Is not ~art of an SMSA. I Only ..,otral city (or cities) Is tracted. · 'Reporttobepublls edlntwoparts: !.New York City; 2. Outside New York City. I Report also sboWI tracts adjaoeot to tbe SMSA. Source: U.S. Census of Population, 1960. 43 Federal CD Guide, December 1965Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2, Ann. 3 c Addendum 2 City Block Reports Report ReportReport Report number numbernumber· number Alabama California-Continued Florida-Continued Kaosas GO. Redwood City 109. J acksonvllle 165. Atchison 1. Bessemer 61. Richmond 110. Lakeland 166. Kansas City2. Birmingham 62. Riverside 111. Miami 167. Topeka3. Gadsden 63. Sacrarnento 112. Miami Beach 168. Wichita4. Huntsville 64. Salinas 113. Orlando 5. Mobile Kentucky 65. San Bernardino 114. Pensacola 6. Montgomery 66. San Diego 115. St. Petersburg 169. Covington 7. Tuscaloosa 116. Tampa 170. Lexington 67. San Francisco 68. San Jose 117. West Palm Beach 171. LouisvilleAlaska 69. San Leandro Louisiana8. Anchorage 70. San Mateo Georgia 9. ·Fairbanks 71. San Pablo 172. Baton Rouge 118. Atlanta 72. Santa Ana 119. Augusta 173. Monroe Arizona 7:-1. Santa Barbara 174. New Orleans 120. Columbus 10. Phoenix 74. Santa Clara County-Se121. East Point 175. Shreveport lected places and census 11. Tucson 122. Macon Maine 12. Yuma tracts 123. Port Wentworth Campbell 124. Savannah 176. PortlandLos AltosArkansas Milpitas Hawaii Maryland 13. Dumas Mountain VIew 177. Annapolis 14. Fort Smith Palo Alto 125. Hllo 178. Baltimore 15. Little Rock Santa Clara 126. Honolulu 179. Hagerstown16. Newport Sunnyvale 127. Lahaina 17. N ortb Little Rock 128. Wailuku Massachusetts 75. Santa Cruz18. Rogers 76. Santa Fe Springs Idaho 180. Boston 19. Van Buren 77. Santa Monica 181. Brockton 129. Pocatello 78. Santa Paula 182. Brookline townCalifornia 79. Santa Rosa 183. Cambridge Illinois 20. Alameda 80. South Gate 184. Fall River 21. Alhambra 81. Stockton 130. Aurora 185. Fitchburg 22. Anaheim 82. Torrance 131. Berwyn 186. Holyoke 23. Bakersfield 83. Vallejo 132. Centreville 187. Lawrence 24. Barstow 84. Walnut Creek 133. Chicago 188. Lowen 25. Bellfiower 85. Watsonville 134. Cicero 189. Lynn26. Berkeley 86. Yuba City 135. Decatur 190. Malden 27. Burbank 136. East St. Louis 191. Medford28. Carmel-by-the-Sea Colorado 137. Elgin 192. New Bedford 29. Compton 87. Aurora 138. Evanston 193. Newton 30. Coronado 88. Boulder 139. Hinsdale 194. Pittsfield 31. Downey 89. Colorado Springs 140. Joliet 195. Quincy 32. El Cerrito 90. Denver 141. Moline 196. Somerville 33. Fremont 91. Englewood 142. Oak Park 197. Springfield 34. Fresno 92. Pueblo 143. Peoria 198. Worcester 35. Fullerton 144. Rockford Connecticut Michigan 36. Garden Grove 145. Rock Island 37. Glendale 93. Ansonia 146. Skokie 199. Adrian 38. Hayward 94. Bridgeport 147. Springfield 200. Ann Arbor 39. Hermosa Beach 95. Greenwich town 201. Battle Creek 96. Hartford Indiana 202. Bay City40. Inglewood 97. New Britain 148. Anderson 203. Dearborn 41. Laguna Beach 98. New Canaan town-Urban 204. Detroit 42. La Habra 149. East Chicago 43. Lakewood part 150. Evansville 205. Flint 99. New Haven 206. Grand Rapids 44. Livermore 151. Fort Wayne 100. Norwalk 152. Gary 207. Harper Woods45. Long Beach 101. Stamford 208. Highland Park 46. Los Angeles 153. Hammond 47. Martinez 102. Waterbury 154. Indianapolis 209. Inkster 48. Modesto 103. West Hartford town 155. Muncie 210. Jackson 49. Montebello Delaware 156. South Bend 211. Kalamazoo 157. Terre Haute 212. Lansing50. Monterey 104. Wilmington 213. Monroe 51. Newport Beach Iowa 214. Muskegon52. Norwalk District of Columbia 158. Cedar Rapids 215. Plymouth53. Oakland 105. Washington 159. Davenport 216. Pontiac54. Oxnard 55. Palm Springs 160. Des Moines 217. Royal Oak Florida 218. St. Clair Shores 161. Dubuque56. Pasadena 57. Petaluma 106. Daytona Beach 162. Ottumwa 219. Saginaw 58. Pomona 107. Fort Lauderdale 163. Sioux City 220. Troy 221. Wayne59. Redondo Beach 108. Hollywood 164. Waterloo VI c Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2, Ann. 3 Report Report Report Report 11tunber number number number Minnesota New York-Continued Pennsylvania-Continued Tennessee 222. Duluth 276. New York City-Queens 340. Johnstown 366. Chattanooga 223. Hastings Borough 341. Lancaster 367. Knoxville 224. 1\llnneapolls 277. New York City-Richmond 342. McKeesport and selected 868. Memphis 225. St. Paul Borough places In Allegheny County 369. Morristown 226. South St. Paul 278. Niagara Falls Aspinwall 370. Nashville and selecteu 279. Patchogue Brackenridge census tracts In Davidson Mississippi Braddock 280. Port Jervis County Braddock Hills 227. Jackson 281. Rochester Bri2. York 408. Yakima New York Oklahoma Rhode Island West Virginia 260. Albany 326. Oklahoma City 353. Cranston 409. Charleston261. Binghamton 827. Tulsa 854. East Providence 410. Huntington 262. Buffalo 355. Newport 263. Ellenville 411. Wheeling Oregon 856. Pawtucket 264. Farmingdale 857. Providence 265. Floral Park 828. Empire Wisconsin 358. Warwick 829. Eugene 266. Glen Cove 859. Woonsocket 412. Fond du Lac 830. Medford 267. Ithaca 331. Pendleton 413. Green Bay 268. Lindenhurst 332. Portland 414. Kenosha 269. Mineola South Carolina 415. MadiSQn 270. Mount Vernon Pennsylvania 360. Cayce 416. Manitowoc 271. Newburgh 361. Charleston 333. Allentown 417. Milwaukee 272. New Rochelle 862. Columbia 334. Altoona 418. Racine 273. New York Clty-Brou 868. Greenville Borough 335. Bethlehem 864. Spartanburg Puerto Rico Borough 337. Chester 274. New York City-Brooklyn 336. Bristol township 419. San Juan 275. New York City-Manhat338. Erie South Dakota 420. Ponce tan Borough 839. Harrisburg 365. Sioux Falla 421. Mayagtlez Source: U.S. Census of Housing, 1960. 45 Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Addendum 3 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2, Ann. 3 BY STATE AGENCIES: DESCRIPTION OF POPULATION ESTIMATES PREPARED SURVEY OF 1960 Areas and groups far De.te orName and address of agency Source vbich estima.tel:l latest Method used State furnishing estimates were prepared estimate Bureau of Business Research Counties••••. ,.,...... July l, 195A Migration and natural inEstimates p.ablished by tbe Alabama. . . . . ... . . University of AlabsDB (preliminary) crease, ~tbod It. Un.iversity 1n lneaDe and PoP: lation 1n .ua-. PrllitedUniversity, Alabama Series No. 2?, He.rcb 1960. (Mrs. Marion H. Havley) age, sex, Pilr. 1, 1958 Local census conducted by Ylll'-Resul:t.a p.tblisbed by the Alaska Bureau oC Vit.al Statistics VillAges by Alaslm., ......... and race. lous State agencies aDd t.be Rl.lral DevelopDent Board in State Department of Health and lJelfare Federal au-eau of Ind.ian Alaska Villege CeDSWI: 1958. Alaska State Office ~lldi.ng Affairs, Juneau, Alaaka {Hr. Francis E. Kester) Migration and oatural in!stimtea publlahed a!UilJ&lly by crease1 Method II. tbe Arizcma !'JD.plo)'ment Sec1J Arizona. ......... Arizona State fmployment Service Counties.............. April 1, 1959 1720 West l"hdison r1t7 Cc::llmis81011 1n AriZCID&: Phoenix, Arizana BaBic EcCIDICDic Data. -- (Ml'. F. V. Proctor) Jan. 1, 195? Censal ratio D!t.bod using !stimtea publ1sbed-b7 tbe colBureau of Business Services CoQnties •••• ;-; ••.••••• births, deaths, passenger lege in Arizcma Buai.Dess Ek.Ll Arizona State College Tempe, Arizona aut:..cJoobile registration, etin, April 1957. (Hr. Artbur w. Gutenberg) school data, utilit:J data, and voter registration. ratio Rtbod using F.atimtes publ1sbed ollliWllly by Bureau of Business and Econadc Colmties.••. ,......... July 1, 1959 Censal Arllansas ········· scbool enrol..lzlmnt data. tbe University 1n ~ Research Business Bulletin aDd in TbeUniversity of Arkansas Arkansas EctiiCilbt. - Fayetteville, .Arb.naaa (Hr. Pldllips H. Brown) Financial and Popll.ation Research State by age.•• ,...... Jan. i, 1960 State--Ccmbination of migra-Estimates publisbed annually byCalifornia•...... the De~t or Fi.Iance in tion-and-natural-increase metboda (Method I, Hetbod II, Ce.litornia. 's Popllation. CountiesSection Budget Dirtsiao State Depe..rtment of FiDance grade progression) and. ageSacramento 14, Ca1.1tornia specific death rates method. (Dr. Carl H. Fris,n) Ccunties-...Migraticm and natural increase, tt:ttbods I and II. Selected cities....... .July 1, 19'8 Cities--VariCQS ~t.bods. to l1areh 31, 1960 July 1, 1959 Censal ratio, using vital sta!stimtea publ1sbd llli11Ua11y b7 Colorado State Planning Divisicm Cclmties••••••• ,...... Colorado.••..•••• tistics, automobile registratbe Ulliversity or Colarlulo 1n 130 State Office a>1ld1Dg ticm, and school enrol..lment. Coloraclo Busi.J:w!os Reriev aodDenver 2, Colorado b7 tbe Pl.ann1.q( Ccalll1aaion 1n(Hr. W, W. Wi].J.i...,) Colorado Gazetteer. !atimtea published b7 tbe lln1 Bureau cf Business Research Cmnties.............. July 1, 1917 Migration 8lld natural in crease, Method II. versit7 in Colorado Baaic Data University of Colorado ~~No, 4, PopllatiOD, b7 Bou.lder, Colorado Mr. Paul V. DeGood, .Jr. (Hr. L. J. Crampon) Cclmties.............. J~ 1, 1959 Migraticm-and-oatural-1Derea.se Estimates plblisbed anaual.l.y by Connecticut...... Bureau of Vital Statistics Towns metbod (age progressicm), the Depe..rtment of Health 1D State Department of Health usi.Dg aebool census date. Weekly lleal\11 llU.lletin. St.ate Qtfice Building Hartford 15, CcmJeeticut (Hr. Edvin T. Tracy) Unpahliahed estimates prepared. Bureau of Vital Statistics Counties and Vi.lJI:l.Dg.July 1, 1959 Proraticm or State eatimte Delaware•••.••... ton city by race. by 1950 Census distributioa, ammall.y and available upao. state Boord or Hea1th request. Dover, Delaware (Hr. Cecil H. -•ball) DistriCt of Col.. See tbe listing ot Washington, D. c., agencies 1n table 3. Migratioa 8lld natural. 1n!atimtea publisbed IUIDIIIllly b7 Cmnties.............. July 1, 1959 and. Business Reaearch Florida......... . Bureau ot EcaDCil'ic (praYis1oaal) crease, ttotbod II. tbe UlliTerSity 1n !<:~c Leaflets 8lld b7 tbe---state'University of Florida Boord or Health 1n • oupple Gai.Desrll.leJ norida -t to its Aml1al VUal Sta, (Ill'. Jolm N. Webb) t1otics Report. State by age, sex, and JulJ" 1, 1959 Stste-~1not.1oa ilm>lYinl-!stimteo publ1sbed Olii!U&lly --.:-Censal ratio usiDg school ne--..t P\11>11 Georgia.••....••. Division of Vital Statistics b7 tbe or State De~tor P\ll>llc race. data, Health 1D !leorJ!iA Vital Sta~ urban-rura1 reeiclenceHea1th 12 capitol square, s.w. by race b. Arlttaetic.projectio:o, ~8lld b7 tbe De~t e. Natural increase. ot Arehi.ea and History in Atlanta J I Georgia. Comtiea and places or Georgia'a Ofricial Resister. 2,500 8lld aver b:y race metlc projectian. (Hr. J. c. Terrell) Counties 8lld Cit1sa-..\rith Olld natural ill-P\11>11sbed b7 tbe lDstitute 1n Counties.............. , July 1, 1957 lligratioo l!ng!Deerilog Experiment crease; Jlli&ratian estiate l'bpllatl.oll F.atmotes <1' GeorgiStaticm derind trcm iDiex or exceiiiit!ea for 1956-1957, spe~ Georgia 1Dst1tute or Teelmolr.,gy pected llligration based oa cia.l Rep:xrt, No. JJ, bJ' John L Atlanta, Georgia previOWII decade. Fulaler. (Ill'. Kenneth C. \logDer) 46 Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2, Ann. 3 Areas and gro.J.ps for rate or Name and address of agency State which estimates latest ~tbod used Source fum.ishing estimates were prepared estima.te Havaii ..•...•.... ou.re'au ·or Health Stati3tics Counties, islands, and . July 1, 1959 Migration-and-natural-in-Estimates prepared semiannually State Department of Health cities of Honolulu crease method, using reported and published annually by the Punchbowl and Beretania Streets and Hilo. movement by sea and air, Department of Health in StaHonolulu 1, Havaii tistical Report. -(Mr. Charles G. Bennett) Island of Oahu by Cen-July 1, 1958 Dwelling unit method.......... Estimates p.1bl1shed by tbe De sus tracts. partment of Health in Esti meted civilian Poi.tion-aiid ~~~ts of.Jl!lnl Census c: uly 1, 1 50 Havaii State Planning Office State and island of July 1, 1959 .zrtrapolatians of 1958 est!-UntaWUshed estimates available 195 s. King· Street Oahu, total and ci(preliminary) I!Btes prepared by the Bogue-upon request. Honolulu 13, Hawaii vilian, by age and Dmcan ccmposite method. (Mr. Robert C. Scbmitt) sex. Island of ()lbu by age April 1, 1959 Estimates based on the Havaii Unp.1blisbed estimates available and sex and by race Health Survey. upon request. and sex. Idahc.........• ,.. Bureau of Vital Statistics Counties.............. Jan. 1, 1959 Natural increase I!Etbod Estimates !'lblisbed annually byState Department of Health (unadjusted). the Department of Health in P.o. Box 640 Annual Report of lrureau of Boise, Idaho Vital Statistics, (Mr. w, w. Benson) Illinois. . . . . . • • . Bureau of Statistics Counties.............. July 1, 1957 Bogue-I>mcan ~aapooite metbocl. Estimates !'lblisbed by the De·State Department of PU.blie Health Cities of 10,000 and Fstima:tes prepared by tbe partment of Public Health in Archives Building over Pop.Uation Research and Health Statistics Bulletin. Springfield, Illinois Tra~ Center <4 the Uni (Mr. Clytie A. Br!clger) versity of Chicago. Indiana........... Division of F\J.blie Health Counties, ••..••.. ,.... July 1,_ 1958 Average of Method II and vital Esti.ma.tes p.lblisbed anrrually byStatistics Cities ot 10,000 and rates method plus supplemen-the Boa.rd. of Health in a se-State Board of Health over tary esti.ma:tes and censuses, riea of "PopJJ.aticm Releases. 11 1330 West Michigan Street Indianapolis, Indiana (Dr. Robert A. Cel.bcun) Iowa....... ,.,... Division or Vital Statistics Counties,,............ July 1, 1959 Migration and natural in-Estililates !'lb1ished by the DeState Department or Realth Cities crease, Method II. ~nt <4 Health in the An Des Moines 19, Iowa nual Report of the DivisionOt (Mr. Loren E. Chancellor) Vital Statistics, Kansas •••• ,...... State Board of Agriculture Counties.............. M!l.rch 1, 1960 Census em:uaeration by county CeDSUB counts published annu-State House Cities assessors. ally by the Kansas SecretaryTopeka, Kansas <4 State in Directory or State (Mr. Paul !Jams) Ofticers1 BOai'dS,8iia Calllliselons, and IntereBtiDi Facts abOiiit ltiliiBis. Kentucky......... Agricultural. ExperiJDent Station Counties.............. July 1, 1958 Migration and natural in-Estimates published annually byUniversity of Kentucky crease, Method II. the University ~ U.xington 29, Kentucky Esti.ma.tes for Ken Coun(Mr. Thomas R. Ford) ties iiid t.CODCIII1c as. Bureau of Recorda and Statistics Counties and cities <4 July 1, 1958 All cLasses--Average or migra-Estimates !'lblished annually byState Depor""'nt of Health 10,000 and over by tion and natural increase, the Department or Health U. 275 East Main Street col.or. Metbod. II, and vital rates ltentu.cq Vital Statistics Frankfort, Kentucky methods. !!!@.(Mr. Stravn W'. Ta;ylor) Color--Pl'aratim <4 eatimatas -rc;rall classes by 19SO Census elate. I.Duisiana,,.,.... State Dep!lrtment of Hospitals Parishes, ..... ,....... July 1, 1959 Vital rates method,.,.,....... Unpublished estimates available State Ce.pitol upon request, Baton Rouge, lDu.iaiana (Miss louise Kemp) Tabulation and Analysi.s Section State by" age and color Jan. I, 1959 Natural increase method.••.••• Esti.mates published armuall.y inState Board of Healt.h Parishes, all ages and Statistical Report ot the Di New Orleans 7, Iou.isiana under 6, by color and vision of 1\lblic Health Ste. (Mr. JohnS. Iemasson) urban-rural residenCf' !!illE!· Maine •••.••••••• , Division of Vital Statistics Counties.............. July 1, 1958 'Combina.tioo or vital rates Estimates published by the DeState Department of Health and method and arithmetic propartment of Health and WelfareWelfare jectiOD.. in the Anmlal Statistical Re State House port or the Division <4 Vital Augusta 8, f'Bine StitlStlcs. (Mr. Ec!son K. Labrack) Maryland.... ,.,... Division of Statistical Research Counties i:Jy age and July 1, 1959 Bogue-Dmcan composite metbod, Estf.mates by color (not by oge)and Records color, !'lblisbed &DDUally by the State DepartmeDt of Health State Depu-lment <4 llea1tb in 30l West Preston Street :He land Vital Statistics Baltimore 1, Maryland __s. (Dr. Arthur S. Kraus) 47 Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2, Ann. 3 State Name and address of agency furnishing estimates Areas and g.roups for which estimates were prepareU r:ate of latest estimate Method used Source Massachusetts .... Division of Vital Statistics Office of the Secretary of the Common\llealth 272 State House Counties, •...•..... Cities Towns July L 1958 Arithmetic projection of the State Census of January 1, 1955. Estimates published by the Secretary of the Commonvealth tn the Annual Report on the Vital Statistics of Mlissachusetts. Boston JJ, Massachusetts (Mr. Ralph R. CUrrier) Michigan..... , ... Statistical Methods Section State Department of Health Old De Witt Road lansing 4, Michigan (Miss Doris L. [).lxbury) CO\Ulties ............. . Places of 2,500 and over July 1, 1958 ~--Migration and natl.!ral increase, Method II. Cities--Natural increase I! ~od (adjusted to county total). Unpublished estimates prepared annually and available upon request. Program for Research in Population and Human Ecology 1516 Rackham Building University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Michigan (Dr. David Goldberg) Counties by broad age groups. July 1, ...I r~!:;ageePja;!~io~~o~~!!~~~~ canposite, vital rates, and migration and naturs.l increase, li:!thod II. Counties by age --Compos!te methOd. Estimates p.lblished by the University of Michigan in Estimates of Po~tion Changeiii Michigan: l-1960, Michigan PoJllle.tion Studies, No. 11 Department of Sociology and Institute of Public Administration. Minnesota ••.•...• Section of Vital Statistics State Department of Health 469 State Office Building Counties.•.•..•.•. ,.,. April 1, 1953 Migration-and-natural-increase method using school census data {age progression). Estimates published annually by the Department of Health in Minnesota Vital Statistics. St. Paul 1, HiDnesota · (Mr, E:I:Derson W, Storey) Mississippi., .... Division of Sociology and Rural Ufe Mississippi State University COWlties by color..... July 1, 1958 Vital rates method•.•......... Estimates published by the Miaaissippi State Board of Health in Anrual Bulletin of Vital Statistics. State College 1 Mississippi (Dr. George L. \lilber) July 1, 1959 Bogue-tmlcan CCIDPJBite method. Unp.1blished estimates available Missouri •...••.•• Statistical Services Counties, •••••.•. , ..• , upon request. State Detartment of PUblic Health and \lfelCare State Office Building Jefferson City, Missouri (Mr. Tbaaas C. Dundon) Co.lnties.......... ,... July 1, 1958 Vital rates method........... . Unp.1blisbed estimates available Montana ••••••••.• Montana State Board or Health upon request. Helena, Montana (Mr. John C. \11lson) No estimates reported. Nebraska, ....•.•• No estimates reported. Nevada •••• , •••••• 1~ 1958 Ganposite method involving--. !.etimates p.1blished annually by New Hampehire. • • • State Pl.e.Dn.1Jlg and DevelopDent Counties, cities, and. April towns by broad age (for over 18) a, School census data, the Coanission in new HampConcord., Nev Hamp8hire groups. Comrlesion Sept. 1, 1958 b, "Head tax" data, shire---Local Population Esti(Mr. Paul Hendrick) (for W1derl8) ~· New Jersey, , , . • . . D1vision of Pl.ann.1ng and Counties.............. July 1, 1959 Average of vital rates and Estimates p1blished annually by Developoent f'llnicipalities dwelling unit methods, the Department in New Jersey State Depe.rtment of Conservation Popll!tion Estimates. and Econcmic DevelopDent Trenton 25, Hew Jersey (Mrs. Gladys \If, nlsvorth) Bureau of Public Health State by age ........ .. July 1, 1959 Total estimates by natural-Unplblished data avaiht.l~ upon Statistics Counties increase method. Age esti request. State Department of Health fokjor cities nates by proration, 129 East Hanover Street Trenton 251 New Jersey (Mr. F. Merton Seybolt) Nev Mexico....... Bureau of Business Research Counties.............. July 1, 1959 Censal ratio method using Estimates published by the Uni school data, births and versity in New Mexico BusinessUniversity or Nev Mexico Albuquerque, Nev Mexico deaths, and other data. =~s~~rb~t!~ N: (Mr. Ralph L. Edgel) Historical Blue Book of New ~- Nev York•.•..••.. oruce or Biostatistics Counties.•..•••••.•.•• July 1, 1959 Migration-and-natural-increase Estimates published by the Demethod usJ.nc migration trends pa.r'tlrent of Health in Monthly State Department of Health Places of lO,QCX) and for 1950-57 where special Vital Statistics Review. Albany 8, Nev York over. (Mr. Elwood G. Brown) censuses were taken in 1957 a.nd 1940-50 trends elsevbere. For Nassau and SUf'folk Counties, the cJwellq unit method was UBed. 48 Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2, Ann. 3 Areas and groups for Date of State which estimates latest Method used Name and address of agency furnishing estimates Source were prepared estimate North Carolina.,, PUblic Health Statistics Section Counties and cities of July 1, 1957 Arithmetic projection ..... ,.,. Estimates published annudly in State Board of Health 10,000 or more by vital statistics reports. P.o. Box 2091 color. Raleigh, North Carolina (Mr. Charles R. Council) North Dakota. . • . • Economic Developnent Commission Counties............... May 1, 1958 Based on utility data, school Unpublished estimates availableBismarck, North Dakota Cities enrollment, and presumed ef-UJXlll request. (Mr. La\o'I'ence A. Schneider) feet of establishment of new industries. · Ohio............. Division of Res~arc~ and Planning Counties.....•........ Jan. 1, 1960 Migration-and-natural-increase Estimates prepared semiannually State Department of Industrial Places of 5,CXXJ and method using extrapolations and available upon request. and Econan:lc Developnent over migration estimates of for 700 Bryden Road 1950 to 1955 prepared by ColumbuS 15, Ohio Method II fran the Estimates (Dr. MarJorie Guy) Project of the State Department of Liquor Control. Division of Vital Statistics Counties.............. July 1, 1959 Counties and cities--See Estimates published in ~ State Department of Health Cities and villages above. tion~es in Ohio Counties 306 State Departments Building Columbus 15, Ohio ~lages--Varioua methods. and c pal Corporations. (Mrs. Margaret Moore) • Ol Dillcm) 49 Federal CD Guide, December 1965Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2, Ann. 3 c Areas and groups for Date or Name and address Of ageDC::f latest Method used Source State which estimates fUrnishing estimates vere prepared estimate Texas., •••••• , •• , Texas F.mployment CCIIIIli.ssion Counties.............. Sept. 1, 1959 Censal ratio method using Unpubl!.ahed estU..te" pref"U""d school census data. amJU&lly aDd ava.~....ab~.e upcm Austin, Texas request, (Hr. Robert c. Burleson) July 1, 1958 Proration of tbe Bureau of tbe Unplbllsbed estimates available Division of Vital Statistics State by age, sex, and State De~tof Health race. Census State estimate by 1950 upcm request. distribution. (Hr. ·w. D. Carroll) Austin 1, Te:ms Utah••••••••••••. Utah R>pulation Work Calmittee ec.mties.............. Jan. 1, 1959 Oensal ratio method usi:ng viEst!JIIates published IIJlDU8lly 117 labor force, tbe Bureau of Economic and c/o Utah Calm1ttee an Industrial tal stat.Ut1cs1 ODd l'lllplo;yDmt Planning school enrol.lment1 motor veBuai.Dess Resea..rcb, UnlYerai'Q' 174 Social Hall Avenue bicle registratic:m, and far ot Utah, iD Utah !ccmaDic tmd Salt Ia2 City 10, Utah selected COWlties, other Bua1Dess BeviN. (Hr. Ricbard B. Weed) data. Bureau or Ecoocm:le BJ1d ~iness CcQ.nties •.•••..••••... Jan. 1, 1957 Ccllbinatioo of JDethods, iD-'Publlsbed iD Utah !cmardc and Research clw11.Jlg a cc.pl.et.e emaera-~iDeas Review1 Jlt!ii 1957. College or aisiDess tian of SCIIID areas tabu part of the school oeiUNB. University of Utah Salt Lake Cit7, utah (Hr. Osmond L. lfarlille) , •••••••• , , ••••• ~............. No eiJtiatea Nported. Vel"llXllt •••••••••• Comties b7 race...... July 1, 1959 l'tlgration and, utural in-Unpubl!.abed eatiates pr-epared Virg!nia........ • Bureau of R>pulaticm aud crease, Method. II• OJimlal.l.y aDd uailable upoo. EcOilC!El.c Research Cities by race request. University of Virginia Cbarlotte8Yi.Ue, Virgt.nia (Hr. J. I.. Loneaster) ltn!Dates pubi.1BIIad ODIIUoOlJ.:Y by Washington.. . . • . • Diviaian or Statf Services Co.mties.............. July 1, 1959 Oenaal ratio 110tbod usi.Ds city State Depar-Went of Ilealth aDd town est-tea pr-epared the De~t of Health in 214 ae...raJ. AdmiuiBtrati"" by the State Censu8 Board. Vital Statistics s.-rz. ~illg OlJmpia, Vv"'"JC"tcm (Hr. Georg<· " Onlrod) WasiWigtan State Census Board Incorporated cities AprU 1, 19~ Special cenau11 cQDI!ucted by l!at-tes pr-epared OJimlal.l.y 111111 104 Sllith IIlli aDd towns. the State1 or est:bsate by tbe issued b7 the Oenaus Board ina DINB releue. Batimatea tar Uninroity of Washillgtan dwellinll unit ...thod. cities ot 10,000 and Oft'r plb Seattle ', Washington (Dr. Calvin F. Scbllid) llalled b7 the De~nt or llealth. Co.mties. • • . . • • • • • . • . • July 1, 1958 Migration 8Dd na~inUnpubliabod est-tea pr-epared \lest Virg!nia.... ~tof Agricul-al crease, Hlttbod II. ODIIUoOlJ.y 111111 aftilable upoo J!".cODCIIIica 8Dd Rurel SociolOII:f request. Tbe Agricultural ExperiDent Stati011 Vest Virginia tJniversity Morgantown, Vest Virginia (Dr. IAoanard H. Sizer) 1, 195l! Proration of the Bureau ot tbe IJnplbUsbed eBtS..tes an.ilable Census State eat"-te by 1950 upoa request, Division of Vital Statistics Counties.............. July State Deport.nt of Health Charleston 5, Vest Virginia distributiOil. (Hr. Paul B. Shanlts) ltniDetes pr-epared amNally 8Dd Visconain... , • • . . Statistical. Services Division CounUes........ ,..... July 1, 1959 Bague-Dmcan c~ite atthod. published biennio.Uy by tboState Board of Health Viscc:asin Legislative ReferState Offioe Building ence Li'bn.ry in 'l'be W1sccma1n HadiBOD 2, Wisconsin (Hr. \lillillll> F. Stewart) ~ Depar-nt of Rural Sociology Counties••••..•••• ,... Jan. 1, 195 Hi.e'ratiOD. and natural inllst!DBtes published b7 the Unicrease, Metbod. II. ftl"Sity in l'bp!letiOil Esti College of Agriculture •tes tor ViaCCilSin ec.mtiea: University of Wisconsin 1957. Madison 6, Visconsin (Dr. lb!glas G. Marshall) ••.• , , , ••.•••• , • • • • • • • , , • • • • • • • • • • • • ••••••••••••••• , , , • • • • • • • • • • • llo estilDlltes reported, \l;yalli:ng •••••••••• 50 Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2, Ann. 3 Areas a.OO. groups for Date ofName and address of agency Area which esti.JJ:Btes latest Method used f"u.mishing esti.nBtes vere prepared estiDBte Puerto Rico•••.•• Population Estimates Civilian population of Jan. 1, 1960 Puerto RicO--Migration-and-EstiDates published annually Section Puerto Rico by age and natural-increase methcd using by the Puerto P..ico Planning Bureau of Dea:J;)graPtie sex. reported migration data. Board in Puerto Rico Statis Registry and ·Statistics Counties (JIIJJ'l.icipios) ••••• July 1, 1958 ~--Vital rates method. tical Yearbook and by the DePuerto Rico Department of partment of Health in Annual Health Report on Vi tal StatiStiC"S"':" San JuanJ Puerto Rico Estimates of the population (Mr. Jose L. V8.zquez) 14 years old and over by age and sex published quarterly by the Puerto Rico Department of Labor in Employment and Unemployment in Puerto Rico. ESttmates of the totil population prepared IIJ)nthly and available upon request. Guam.. ••••••••_.... Office of Chief Coll:missioner Pop.llation or Guam (exJan. 1, 1960 Local cenBUB taken by municiCensus taken annually at irQovemment of Guam cluding Armed Forces, pal cODII:d.ssioners. regular dates. Total and seAgans., Guam their dependents, conlected details p.~blished by (Hr. Federico T. Gutierrez) tract employees of the the U.S. Department of the Armed Forces, and alie Interior in the Annual Report labor inside military of tlle Governor of Guam. reservations). Other figUres available on request. Virgin Islands of Vital Statistics Division Virgin Islands, urban and July 1, 1958 Migration-and-natural-increase Estilllltes by islands published the u.s. Territorial Department rural, method using arbitra:cy allowannuall,y by the u.s. Departof Health Islands ances for migration, ment of Interior in the AnCharlotte Amalie, St. Thamas Cities nual Report of the Governor Virgin Islands of the u.s. of the Virgin Islands. Otber (Miss Bertha Boscbulte) est1Diltes available on request, American Samoa.,. • •• oo................ o........ . ............... o ..,...... . .... o o...... . ................. , . , . o....... .No estimates reported, Local census taken by the Government of American SaJm)a. on September 25, 1956, Canal Zone. o ••• o • • •••••••••••••••••• o • • • • • • • • • • • ••••••••• , ••••••••••••• , • • ••••• , • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • No estimates reported. Local census taken by the police in November 1954, Trust Territory High CoDIDissioner of t,he Trust Population of the Trus June J, 1959 COlllllUlity reports compiled by Data published annually by the of the Pacif'ic Territory of the Pacific Territory (excluding the Trust Territory HeadU.S. Departa:ent of State in Islands. Islands Armed Forces, U.S. Gov qua. .;.ers Statistical Center, the Annual Rep:>rt to the P.O. Box 542 ernment employees and United Nations on the Trust Agana, ~ their dependents). Territory of t.he Pacific Is. (Mr. M. \11lfred Goding) District, island, or polands, statlstic81 Appen. litical subdivision dTXeS. Age, sex, place of birth, 1st half 1958 Loeal CLo.ISUB taken by the Data published by the High ethnic group, etc, High Carmissioner and tabu· Coovnissioner in Census of the lated · by the U.S. Bureau of Trust Territory of Ute Pa· the Census. cific Islands: 1958, Source: Current Population Reports, Population Estimates, U.S. Bureau. of Census, Washington, D.C., March 8, 1962, Series P-25, No. ~44, Tables l and 2. 51 Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2, Ann. 4 CSP DATA-REPORTING FORMS AND THEIR USE The local CSP contract requires the use of two data reporting forms; namely, the Shelter Allocation Accounting Form and the CSP Standard Information Form. (See annex 5 to appendix D-3-1, especially Exhibits A-3 and A--4.) (In addition, CSP Officers, State, are required to submit the latter form for all non-funded CSPs for which they are responsible; see appendix D-3-3.) In general, the purposes of this requirement are two: (1) To assist local planners in developing Step I shelter capability allocation plans which make maximum use of the existing shelter in the CSP area and which account for all of the residents. (2) To provide data to OCD on the use actually being made of NFSS and other shelter, as a basis for policy decisions. For example, widespread use of substantial amounts of space in facilities with capacities under 50 might indicate a need to provide Federal fallout shelter signs for such facilities (signs are now provided only for facilities with rated capacities over 50). If, on the other hand, only limited use were being made of these smaller facilities, there "·ould not be a clear requirement to provide signs. In addition, as CSPs are completed covering a substantial part of the country, it will become possible to make accurate projections of the total national deficit of shelter, and to identify these deficits by geographic location. The prescribed CSP data, forms are based on the use of Standard Locations (SLs) as the geographical unit. This provides uniformity, comprehensiveness, and compatibility. This approach is comprehensive because every part of the United States and its territories has been defined by SLs and is exactly defined by UTM (Universal Transverse Mercator) geographical coordinates. In addition, SLs are coterminous with census tract boundaries in most tracted areas. Most important, other OCD systems are closely tied to the SL technique for describing geograph ical areas. NFSS and other OCD data, including damage assessment data, are based on the SL technique. CSP information must therefore be provided by SL to be compatible with these other OCD systems. · USE OF THE SHELTER ALLOCATION ACCOUNTING FORM Concept of the Shelter Allocation Accounting Form Allocating people to shelter involves repetitive arithmetical operations tha~ can easily lead to errors unless adequate accounting procedures are used during the allocation process. Thus, to ensure that the data generated are accurate and consistent, a systematic procedure is required for making allocations and for keeping records of these allocations. A simple method for doing this is illustrated in figure 1. Each Standard Location Number (SL) in the CSP area, along with the population associated with that SL, is given on the vertical axis. Thus the ordinate gives the location of population origin. The SLs within which population has been allocated are shown on the horizontal axis; thus the abscissa gives the location of population destination. The object is to allocate population from each SL in such a way that the sum of the allocations plus the number not aJlocated to public shelter will be equal to the SL population. The arithmetical constraints on the allocation are that people shall be allocated once and only once (i.e., population must equal those alloca:ted to public shelter plus those not so allocated) and that the number allocated to public shelter in each SL cannot exceed the number of spaces available. Figure 1 shmYs simplified accounting forms that might be used for a community of 4,000 population distributed in five SLs. 53 Federal CD Guide, December 1965 Part D, Chap. 3, App. 2, Ann. 4 PART A.-complete matrix Population allocated to SL: Total---,-I SL popula1 2 3 4 5 Allocated to public Not allocated to tion shelter public shelter 1 800 0 100 100 0 Population 2 0 250 0 0 100 0 1,000 allocated 3 0 200 1,000 800 0 1,000 from SL 4 0 0 0 200 0 350 150 500 5 0 0 0 0 200 2,000 0 2,000 200 50 250 Total: 800 450 1, 100 1, 100 300 200 50 250 3, 750 250 4,000 PART B.-compressed matrix Population allocated to- SL Pop. SL Pop. SL Pop. 1 1 800 3 Population 2 2 250 5 allocated 3 3 1,000 2 from SL 4 4 200 -5 5 200 -- Total: X X X 100 4 100 100 ------200 4 800 X X X Total-SL popula-Allocated to public Not allocated to tion shelter public shelter 1, 000 0 1,000 350 150 500 2,000 0 2,000 200 50 250 200 50 250 3, 750 250 4, 000 FIGURE I.-Shelter allocation accounting concept. Part A shows how the allocation data would be collected, using a complete matrix format (i.e., number of SL rows equal to number of SL columns). For example, SL No. 1 has a population of 1,000; 800 are allocated within SL 1, none in SL 2, 100 in SL 3, 100 in SL 4, none in SL 5, and no one is not allocated to public shelter. The row sum, 800+0+100+100+0=1,000, is the number of people from SL 1 who were allocated to shelter. Each column S}lm gives the total number of people sheltered within an SL; for example, the spaces used in SL 2 equal 0+250+200+0+0=450. Part B is the same concept, but the horizontal axis has been compressed by listing only those SLs to which an allocation has been made. This procedure eliminates the need to put zeroes in SLs that were not used, thereby reducing the size of the form. Thus if a community has many SLs, but population from any one SL is allocated 'to only a few other SLs, then the accounting form population from SL 4 is allocated to shelter only within SL 4; hence, in Part B only one allocation is filled in, but both the SL number and the number allocated must be shown. The example would be read as "the population from SL 4 allocated to shelter within SL 4 is 200.'' Since no other columns are filled in, no one from SL 4 has been allocated to any other SL. The dbvious problem with this method is that columns cannot be added to give the total number of spaces used within each SL. Figure 2 is an expanded version of the Shelter Allocation Accounting concept shmvn in Figure 1. Use of this type of format will facilitate the systematic collection of all important data relative to shelter allocation in Step ID. Clearly a community would not need 'to have many SLs before the complex matrix approach became unwieldy. (In figure 2, there is enough space to show only two SLs, 1 and N, on the a:bscissa. Those in between . d' db ". . . .") would be considerably condensed. For example, are m Icate y 54 SHELTER AllOCATION ACCOUNTING FORM (sample formatl . 0 c ,. f ~ , "' l~l . I I I I I I I 1 1 Q1-I I I I I 1 ; • ENe. PO 1w Peak Day, PN lw Peak N;ght, PR lw Resklerl, etc. .., Enter the first four choructen of 1M eight -character Sl Code. Tnese indicate the Region -State -Alea -Co.my. ~a. ...~ ...... Note: Sls between •1• and •N• which Clnl' indicated by • ••• • have been omitted due to space limitation. t:'e. I=(C1• .•• C,) + ( E1 +••• E,.) + (Fl + •••F.) K = G1 +••• Gn ~ C":l J = (11 + ···In) + tD1 + • • • Dnl L=Ht +••• Hn C":lt:' 'CIC FIGURE 2.-Shelter allocation accounting form (sample format). '~ S,.j ~~ 'CI~ • <111 =.., =~ = • ...