' f - V ; r...A i. • ; ' i-'vf ffr, . V A : t':\;V ■■( ; \ ; P v} £ By H. T» KEALINQ VI - F F® -5? TH? AMERICAN *6*»0 AOAO«*»V. Kortune=Telling IN History. BY H. T. KEALINC. Member of the American Negro Academy. PHILADELPHIA. A. M. E. PUBLISHING HOUSE, 631 PINE STREET. Fortune-Telling in History. I hope none will so far misread my subject as to suppose I intend herein to ask any portion of their valuable time to consider that foolish pretense to prophetic power which is claimed for Gypsies, seventh sons, and fakirs who make their living by humbugging foolish men and sim¬ ple women. Such is no part of my purpose. I wish to consider the tendency and practice of men in all ages to predict the future rank and greatness of a nation as it appears from time to time above the horizon of history. I might have called my subject "Predictions" or "Prophe¬ cies" in history, either word containing the essential idea of foretelling, but preferred the word "Fortune-telling" in order that the failure of that foretelling might be implied in the title as well. There is a strain of superstition in us all, one class may laugh at the signs and omens of another, but these in turn will be found to cher¬ ish some sign, too. The derision we heap upon the conjurer and the Vou-dou, with their little flannel bag containing red pepper, a lizard tail, a snake head and a man's little finger-bone, can sometimes be heaped upon us when our nose itches, the rooster crows in the door, or when 13 persons sit down together, or we "begin a journey on Friday, to say nothing of turning back after the journey is begun. A gentleman once said to an old mam on his farm, "I am surprised that Uncle Henry is foolish enough to believe there's luck in the left fore-foot of a rabbit, there's nothing in that." "Jis so, sah," said the old man, "I been tellin' him dat all de time. Dey ain't nothin' in de lef' fore-foot; it's de lef' hin'-foot, sah, of a graveyard rabbit, sah!" And if facts were known, it would often be found that many who laugh at the signs of others do not repudiate signs themselves, but prefer their own. But I would rescue this discussion from all consideration of these sup¬ erstitions, and limit it to those attempted scientific prognostications of learned men who have given valuable thought to the world. A careful survey of human history will show that the sages of the predominant peoples of any age have tried, from a study of the phenomena of civili¬ zation about them, to fix upon the future course their own and subordi¬ nate peoples would run, the heights, they would attain, and the ultimate relativity of the several peoples in the scale of civilization, for all time 4 FORTUNE-TELLING IN HISTORY to come. In not one single instance of completed record have these pre¬ dictions proven true, from the vauntings of that Eastern despot, ruler of the world, who asked, "Is not this great Babylon which I have built by the might of my power?" to the all-conquering Roman, who revealed his mind in calling his capital "the Eternal City." I once saw a gentleman set out in a buggy accompanied by his little dog, to visit some place. The dog, believing he^knew the course and the intended end of the journey, ran on ahead several blocks, but when he looked back, the master was turning an unexpected corner, and the dog was obliged to retrace his steps. Overtaking his master, he ran on ahead a second time supposing that now, at least, he knew the direction intended, but only1 to have to return a second time, and indeed, a third time. Now, the streets away from which the man turned were broader and fairer than those into which iie turned, and the dog apparently showed better judgment in selecting the route than his master, but the contrary was really true, for the dog had misunderstood the purpose of the master. The broad streets were those upon which hundreds of his master's friends were driving and it seemed the natural way for him to go also; but when finally the ill-paved narrow route he really took brought him into a new district of the city where finer houses than any along the paved avenues were going up, where finer lawns were being sodded, and ampler grounds laid out, it was seen that the higher intel¬ ligence which had thwarted and disappointed the lower was vindicated in its course. This, I take it, is a f complete illustration of what God does among nations. Sociologists, philosophers, and savants point out the ways of nations along the magnificent pathways and avenues al¬ ready thrown up by an anterior civilization, only to find that God has guided them by aj way never before traveled, for He, too, has new dis¬ tricts to be developed, new ways to be paved, and the philosopher finds, like the little dog, that he must retrace his steps and revise his prognos¬ tications to be at one with the Master Mind. Yet, however variant the types, civilization has never gone back¬ ward. The overrulings of at beneficent Providence have pushed the race ever onward—not always, indeed, the same nationality through the whole course; not always the same ideals, but still the human race, in uew combination, in new territory, in new purpose. Reverting to the figure just used, sometimes) the horse in the buggy may assert his own will and refuse to turn the way the master directs; he must then be supplanted by one more tractable. Perhaps the horse at some stage of the journey may lose faith in his master's directing power, or feel too exuberant from pampering, and run away, breaking up the buggy. The master must then get both a new horse and a stronger buggy. Any and all of these things astonish the little dog. He had no plan in his mind for anything except the trip in safety as he wished it. Thus refractory nations have been supplanted by tractable ones who would go the Master's way; or reckless nations which have gone wild and wrecked their civilization, have had to see a new nation lead on to a higher and better civilization than theirs. tfORTUNE-TELLING IN HISTORY 5 When Patrick Henry said lie knew of no way to judge the future but by the past, he gained the consent of thoughtful men everywhere; but, as a matter of fact, the greatest misjudgments men have ever made have been based upon the past. They seem to forget that the moment new and unknown manifestations cease, progress turns upon itself and a circle is begun; but so teaches the lesson of the ages. Thus each civ¬ ilization has proclaimed itself the abiding one, and the leading people have always justified their belief in the permanence of their own pri¬ macy. They ask, What have these inferiors following in my train ever done in the past to justify- their hope of a higher place tnan they now hold? Wrapped in the grasp of these preconceptions, the course and meaning of the events of every century have been ticketed in all sin¬ cerity with a false, though plausible, significance by contemporary phil¬ osophers, and the x*eal bearings not .seen till new generations looked back from their places midway in the next century. Nor is this very strange. The man overboard buffeting with the waves is the last man to know that the storm is abating. He is too' much iji it to note any change that does not actually pluck him out of the water. Suppose we briefly notice a few of the things in history which men have seen and misinterpreted. In 675 B. G., when Esar-Haddon, king of Assyria, conquered Egypt, it iseemed to him that the star of Assyrian ascendancy had risen never to set; to Egypt, it seemed that civilization (for hers was the highest of the time) went down into eternal night. Both were wrong. Assyrian ascendancy was a momentary thing, and Egyptian1 civilization was not lost. It was God's way of passing it through Persia into Greece. It was transplanting the tree from the tropical habitat of Asia and Africa, ' favorable to great physical development, into the keener climate of Eu¬ rope conducive to stronger and higher nervous development. The Lux- ors and Karnacs were the growths of a physical civilization; Greece was mind and soul. And when Rome, great, brawny, quarreling, fight¬ ing Rome, replaced the click of a Phidias' hammer with the clang of a Caesar's spear and shield, if there ever was reversion in civilization, here it was; but it really was the conquest of will over sentiment, the •prevailing of action over meditation. Greece could never nave fought a Gallic War nor quelled a British yeomanry. What did Alaric and his hordes of blood-drinking Barbarians represent to the Romans when these savages overran their paved streets and gazed in contempt upon the marble baths of that great people. Simply and solely destruction, savagery and ignorance unspeakable. The very Barbarians themselves saw no other meaning than more room for themselves and the destruc¬ tion of effeminacy and artificiality from the earth. But it really meant England, France, Greater Germany,—in short, Western Europe. It meant Charlemagne, Columbus, America. It meant the Christian re¬ ligion, the dignity of the common people. It meant ihe Reformation, the steamship and world communication, the railroad and interior de¬ velopment, the telegraph and annihilation of distance. All these and 6 fortunb-telung in history more. But who saw it then? Let us turn to a few important mind movements that were misjudged either in what it was thought they would do or destroy. When Peter the Hermit aroused the whole Western world to* go to the Holy Land to rescue it from the Mohammedan unbeliever, the na¬ tions and the Church saw in it God's will1 and their sure success. But the seven Crusades, covering nearly two hundred years, left the land still in the hands of the Mohammedans. The Saracens and Christians agreed in believing the Crusades a failure. They did not see what was accomplished. We do. The rude European soldiers were brought into contact with ai learning so far above any in their lands tnat they were astounded. They brought back Arabian algebra, alchemy, alcohol, as¬ trology, and a hundred civilized arts to> which Europe had been a stranger. They came in contact with the corruption of the Roman hier¬ archy and were absolved from their superstitious fears, so> that bound up in those Crusades were both the English universities and the Ger¬ man Reformation. The Dark Ages were read as the end of civilization. They were the brooding time, in fact. It was then that human thought was hibernat¬ ing after the exhaustion of three thousand years of physical ideals, pre¬ paratory to the erection of new political and philosophical ones. • The French Revolution did not destroy all government, as it seemed to threaten in its mad struggle for liberty from all law and religion, nor did Napoleon destroy all freedom in his nation-chaining career. They gave the world a republic instead of anarchy or despotism, and in the pitting of the individualistic ideal of Anglo-Saxon against the com¬ munistic one of Latin, they perpetuated liberty and expansion of wealth throughout the world. They sounded the death-knell of slavery and made sure the foundations of the growing American republic. Peter the Great showed a shrewd understanding of the contradic¬ tions of apparent truths when, after repeated defeats by Charles xii, of Sweden, he said, "It is ail right. He is simply teaching me how to whip him." So it was. Let us for a moment bring these reflections nearer home. When Evolution was first proclaimed, it seemed to presage the end of the Bible as authority in religion. Both Christian and infidel so regarded it. It really broke the bands of an unscientific age and released ecclesi¬ astical learning from dogma. The Sabbath-school teacher knows more arguments for the authenticity and authority of the Bible to-day than theologians in the time of Jonathan Edwards. Higher criticism is con¬ fronted by archaeology, and a Harper met by a Sayce! The American Civil War was fought to destroy the doctrine of Slates' Rights. Both the North and the South believed that the fate of that issue was involved. The contest began beween Jefferson and Ham¬ ilton. But though the North won, States' Rights is the accepted doc¬ trine of the nation stilL A new issue not intended w&s settled—the question of slavery. Was the war then a failure? Not so; men arei be- FORTUNE-TELLING IN HISTORY 7 ginning to see that a nation cannot be more righteous tnan its public CQnscience, and the onus of moral responsibility has been put upon each individual rather than upon the government. This, of course, gives law¬ less elements power to control where they exist, but acts powerfully to stamp out their existence. The constant appeal to civilization, human¬ ity and religion is not fruitless. Does any one suppose tnat under the mailed hand of military occupancy in the Southern States free schools would flourish by the voluntary action and will of the people as they do under local self-government? "VVe might easily multiply instances tending to. show that man has made poor headway in understanding the meaning of national and so¬ cial phenomena and in predicting the outcome of a movement. Let us now note a few of the reasons. It is not because there is not a philosophy of history. If human na¬ ture is essentially a constant quantity, as all believe, knowing the qual¬ ities to be affected and the powers that affect them, we can tell what action will come, or be attempted, under a certain set of circumstances. This is true of individuals. It is also true of masses, which are but con¬ gregated individuals; but in this case the calculation must not only take into consideration each individual, but such modifications of self-mani¬ festation as arise from his relation to all the others. When we pause to reflect that, though human nature is one, it is exceedingly difficult to know, a difficulty, too, multiplied in geometric ratio in a social organism, we can begin to see the magnitude of the problems. A cerrain man who- owed a debt promised to bring a load of hay to his creditor in payment. But when he got to town, instead of doing as he promised, he sold the hay for cash to another man. The creditor, meeting him, said, "Didn't you promise to bring me that hay?" "Yes, sir." "Well, you didn't do it, did you?" "No, sir." "Weil, you lied, didn't you?*' "Yes, sir." "What made you do it?" "Well, I don't know, boss, cep'en I ain't de man I took myself to be." Most of us find that difficulty in trying to read human nature. We find we are not the men we take ourselves to be. One of the first reasons for failure in prophecy is that each nation leading in any civilization is intensely egotistic. It is hard to see that its greatness comes out of the tomb of a preceding civilization. 'Tis true, other people have perished in the midst of their greatness, but we al¬ ways think we see their mistake and will not repeat it. Just as though there are not other mistakes for new conditions! Greece, Rome, Italy, Spain, Austria, Scandinavia, each in turn believed it had the torch for- ever. Even Turkey once saw visions of undying power and universal empire. It is hard to convince a man in the full tide of health and hap¬ piness that he will die. Secondly, it is, hard to see in any people more than it has already given indication of. For this reason leading nations are apt to be supercilious with small ones and require of them a sign, and as no people can prove what is in them before the time of proof, they are referred to their eventless past and told to stand aside. Japan 8 FORTUNE-TELLING IN HISTORY is the most recent instance of unexpected development. Anglo-Saxon supremacy is not through rubbing its eyes yet. England, Germany, Spain, France, Russia, are further instances of States to which, in their infancy, first-class power and importance were thought impossible. What was the opinion the Roman had of the Gaul and Briton? and what thought the Norman of the Saxon? Who saw in Russia over two centuries ago the coming great power of the world? Do men even now concede to Japan possible equality with the Western civilization? On the contrary, we admit that it has shown wonderful growth and clev¬ erness, but we think of this as compared with Asiatic civilization, that of -stagnant China especially. Thirdly, men assume the continuation of existing conditions and make these the basis of their calculations. Yet it is strange that they should. Migration to new lands and climates, with the attendant changes of food, habit and labor, discovery of new natural materials, new control of natural powers, inventions doubling power and comfort and giving more leisure, would seem to be sufficient suggestions to man of a constantly changing set of conditions, and a consequent change of positions among peoples; but he is slow to apply the lesson to his own times and contemporaries. To glance at the most1 patent case in point: We have said that the Crusades revealed to West¬ ern Europe a civilization and knowledge far in advance of its own, and for many years it seemed that the feudal constitution of European civ¬ ilization was antagonistic to the development of learning. But in the fifteenth century printing was invented, and Europe ac once forged ahead of Asia Minor and has held the pre-eminence ever since. Look at the wonderful commercial operations of the present day, one firm now frequently doubling the iargest transactions of that former Croesus of Commerce, the East India Company. Only a few weeks ago Trusts were incorporated in New Jersey to the amount of one billion and a quarter of dollars. These things are the legitimate response to Ark- wright's loom, Whitney's gin, Morse's telegraph and Fulton's steam¬ boat. More than that, history has been made and modified by "these same changes in conditions and environments. Gunpowder is the cause of an open China and! a progressive Japan; the locomotive and the Mc- Cormick reaper have given us an aroused Russia, The cotton-gin gave impetus and untold magnitude to human slavery. The loom gave eman¬ cipation again. In fact, we begin to awaken to the truth somewhat ap¬ palling, if it were not for a God behind it all, that we are being made without our will and pulled in an unknown direction by the steeds which we have boasted of harnessing, but which seem to have taken the bits in their teeth. You remember the story in the Arabian Nights, where the fisherman, casting in his net, brought up a copper kettle which he uncovered to explore its contents. Immediately, a mist began to arise from it till it assumed the form of a gigantic man, who: in a terrible voice bade the fisherman prepare for death. Whea the poor fel¬ low asked why, the giant explained that he had been confined in that FORTUNE-TEI/LING IN HISTORY 9 kettle by order of King Solomon for many years. From time to time he had promised immense rewards to the one who would roiease him, but at last, none coming, in exasperation he had sworn to kill) the first one who! set him free. The unfortunate fisherman was that person. So* it would seem to be with us to-day. We seem not only in prospect of in¬ voluntary expansion, but of certain death by the exasperation of the great forces so long bound down, but which modern, science and inven¬ tion, under Christianity, are releasing upon us. Our great trusts and the rampant spirit of immoral commercialism threatens our existence more and more every day. Our foretellers in history can, therefore, no longer forecast from old conditions, or even depend on the present ones, and having done so is the cause of their discomfiture to-day. Fourthly, we forget that each new power shown is called forth by the condition that needs it, and each new condition creates its own spirit, if not actually new powers. Under ordinary circumstances things retain their identity and qualities, but under stress of a certain kind of vitalized contact we may get a people very different from the original stock and thus a new force appears upon the scene. Hydrogen and oxygen wouid be in the same vessel a century and still be hydrogen and oxygen; but pass an electric spark into the vessel ana. we have wa¬ ter formed at once. So nations long inert and barbarous, oy the vivify¬ ing power of an outer civilization sometimes take on entirely new qual¬ ities and become active factors in the world's progress. This is what actually occurred to make England the great power she is. Who would suppose from any evidence extant, outside of history, that the German is the same stock as the Englishman? Soi it is, however; yet one cannot understand the other speak even, and their ideas of government and colonizing are diametrically opposite. Ini one, popular power is with¬ held as far as possible and the divine right of kings still lags super¬ fluous on the stage; in) the other, popular government is tne most cher¬ ished part of administration, and it is a kingdom by courtesy. Nay, the contrast is still greater "between America and Germany. Who can tell what Japan and China may become under the inspiration of that sanguine Western civilization that now begins to permeate their mum¬ mied veins? Who can tell what will be the next nation to come forth from the womb of time? Will it be an African nation, one of the tardy barbarous interior Asiatic peoples, or some strong agricultural little re¬ public Switzerland—who will prophesy? Fifthly, men use the same chronology in estimating national growth now that they used! ini the centuries before Christ; but it requires only a little thought to see that days now do the deeds of years, and years, of centuries long ago. Rome took two thousand years to become a pow¬ er; England took a thousand; but young America was in the full tide of national greatness when she was a hundred; and most wonderful of all, Japan, counting only thirty years since she was thrilled by the 'spark, is teaching our mathematics, using our railroads, operating our machinery, sending messages with our telegraphs, managing our gun-boats and 10 FORTUNE-TELLING IN HISTORY whipping with our cannon. She is wearing our clothes, competing with our commerce and hedging with our diplomacy. American carpets- are on her floors, our' standards enter into her monetary system, and popu¬ lar government and legislative processes rule. Have we begun to re¬ alize that it only takes a few dny^ now to make a world-power.' Men not only move faster and carry more things, better made, in this age of steam and electricity, but they think faster, think better, follow thought by action sooner, and thus bring forth more fruit than in trie days of the "one-lioss shay" and the ox-cart. Tennyson's lines, "Better a day m Europe than a cycle in Cathay," will soon be an anachronism, for Ca¬ thay bids fair to\ live its cycle in a European day. Sixthly, in predicting the' career of nations, we are apt io give an ac¬ cidental and adventitious occurrence the weight of one produced by long continuing, though hidden, causes, or a phenomenon may oe referred to the wrong couse. For instance. M. Demolins, in discussing the causes for France's decline, finds it not in the things to which men have .gen¬ erally attributed it, but in the false system of education in France, which prepares boys to get office and stay at home, rather than for the struggle for existence in the great, wide, inviting outside world which the English are taking to themselves. Seventhly, it is next to impossible to provide, in a forecast of a peo¬ ple's future status, for the effect of the undeveloped tendencies arising from unknown factors in their ancestry. Our history of races and na¬ tions is very imperfect. All we do> know is that there are no pure, un¬ mixed' peoplq in the civilized world, but what and how many elements enter into each, no one can tell. Yet it is still true that "biood will tell." These seven difficulties, suggesting possibly many more, give some idea of the elements with which the prophet or foreteller must dea1 in order to forecast the horoscope of any people. It is much easier to take things as they are and predict the perpetuity of the nation then in the ascendant, for this method has the advantage to liim who is not con¬ cerned about posthumous fame, that it will make him popular in life and no one of those who exalt him will be "living to witness- the failure of his prophecy. I speak here to an American audience, and it is well known that the presence in large numbers of the Negro has given rise to two classes of inquiry: (1) What is to become of the nation through its dealings witn these people? and (2j What degree of civilization and capacity to de¬ velop will they show in the years ta come? This, as I have intimated, is a difficult inquiry under any circumstances, owing to the many and complicated considerations which affect the answer; but it is especially so when we consider that a large class of people who contribute to the judgment will not hear the evidence to be had, or will not eliminate their predilections from the verdict they are asked to make np. In ask¬ ing what part the Negro is to contribute to American civilization, it is pertinent to inquire what that civilization consists of. And this is not such a simple inquiry as sciolists are wont to believe. Guizot has FORTUNE-MvUNG in history 11 given this matter of civilization much study, and his definition, largely accepted and quoted throughout the world of scholars, divides it into two parts or elements, the social or associated development, or life, of a nation; and the moral life, or development of the individuals forming that nation. One may exist in great perfection without the other. I see in a window a rug of beautiful figure, the colors harmonize perfectlj*. the design is elegant and chaste, but on near approach, I find that it is made of jute, or some other very coarse material. Thus are nations constituted. The pattern of their civil and social institutions may be worthy of admiration, but the constituent elements, the units, the indi¬ vidual quality of the men of that nation, may be very coarse and crude; or, vice versa, the social and civil structure may be loose or repellant, but its units well developed. Rome was an instance of the first—a well-ordered government of a people of low moral development; while Palestine was an instance of the latter—a poor civil organism made up of people highly developed in The individual. Now, it is clear there can be no perfect civilization in the absence of either civil or personal excellence. In a weak civil as¬ sociation, the ends of social existence, of commerce, antt of invention will be but poorly met. In an inferior development of personal morali¬ ty and conscience, the home, the family, virtue, honor and regard for others, will be swallowed up in a grinding selfish organism that lives by preying upon the weak and unprotected. With both, we have a happy, honorable, virtuous and high-minded people, full of vigor, organic power and enterprise,—a great nation within and without. Can tne encomiums which have been heaped upon our form of government, its enterprise and invincibility, be extended to praise of its units as moral factors? or is it not true that there is not a uniform development in all sections of the nobler qualities of the inner life? What can disregard of law and order mean but a low moral state among the people who endure it? A very few moments' thought will show that the standard of moral sen¬ timent. is of varying elevation in the different sections of our country.> New England has long been noted for its high regard of the virtues, and for human life and happiness. And while the pouring of a constant stream of foreign and lower elements has carried in, to some extent, a deterioration, it is still true that relatively New England remains the type of the best American civilization. Here is the testimony on this point given by Rev. Dr. Steele, editor of the Rambler, a [southern man; "In all the elements of a high civilization, industrial, intellectual, and moral, New England is a century ahead of the South." The standard in the West is lower, owing to the primitive conditions that prevailed in the conquering of that region, as well as) to the immense influx of for¬ eign elements. It should be remembered that the Western people were; mainly young emigrants full of the radical and vital tendencies of youth unrestrained by the counsel, experience and conservatism of their aged sires in the East, lacking largely the offices of religion and settling for •an avowedly sordid purpose. The South hasi in some respects the low- 12 tfORTtJNE-TEtLING IN HISTORY est standard of all. Burdened by a heritage of slavery that debauched both master and slave; fixing degrees to man's obligations to his fellow by a system of color discriminations; nay, denying to some the very claims of common humanity; forced to use cruelty and oppression to suppress resistance; permitting the illicit commerce of the opposite sexes of the two races, thus bringing into- existence the mulatto; cov¬ ered with a pall of ignorance and superstition in the slave and paralyzed in its industries and development by the indolence and contempt for labor in the whites, what other conditions could there be except a low condition of moral sentiment, cheapness of life, ready resort to deadly weapons, pride of birth that spurned honest toil, and the substitution of personal vengeance for legal punishment. It will be seen, therefore, that not only is the personal element of real civilization among us lower than one would expect from an obser¬ vation of our institutions, laws, and material grandeur, but a more care¬ ful study of these institutions themselves will reveal inherent structural weakness in the social fabric very surprising to those w have surpassed us (Anglo-Saxons). Mr. Lecky, in his History of European Morals, says that in philosophy, poetry of every description, in written and spoken eloquence, in statesmanship, in sculpture, in painting, and probably in music, the Greeks attained almost or altogether the highest limits of human perfection. Mr. Galton, a scientist of authority in these matters, says that the ablest race of whom history tells is unquestion¬ ably the Greeks, that) we have no men to put by the siue of Socrates and Phidias, and that the millions of Europe breeding for two thousand years have never produced their equals. He further states that the Athenian race was really two grades higher in ability tnan our own. These people belonged to the warm peninsula; of Europe. But the Gre¬ cians are not all that challenge the correctness of the accepted theory. The warmer regions are to be credited with Alexander, Hannibal, Caesar, Mohammed, Charles Y. of Spain, Columbus, Galileo, Dante, Tasso, Napoleon, Michael Angelo, Titian, Murillo, Cicero, Demos¬ thenes, Archimedes and a score of scarcely lesser lights m all the ave¬ nues of life whose names cannot be matched in our history. The south¬ ern countries, Italy and Spain, have led in civilization even in the days of Anglo-Saxon organized and civilized government. Germany, Hol¬ land and Belgium owned their sway. Algebra began with the Arabians, The very etymology of the word is Oriental. Astronomy began with Egypt. We have added nothing to poetry and to art, and little to lit¬ erature. In the light of these facts, the climate theory is somewhat in need of repair. Another popular misconception is that the highest moral and relig¬ ious systems belong, if not to the Anglo-Saxon, at least, to the Aryan peoples. But what becomes of such a claim in the face of the fact that the Aryan, or Indo-European, people have given rise to none of these, neither Christianity, Mohammedism, nor Confuscianism; Buddism, the most destructive to human progress of any of them, alone excepted. All these have come from Semitic and not Japhetic peoples, the Jews, the Arabians, and the Chinese. Western Aryans have no surviving religion. The Druids are all gone. Mythology is the burden of the child's story¬ book. u EORTUNE-TEEEING IN HISTORY Again, it is generally believed that the intellectual ability varies as the brain capacity, of the cranium, but this is not true either. Profes¬ sor Quatrefages, the eminent French scientist, say si that by such a test the Troglodytes found in the caves would be superior to the best of modern races; that the intellectual faculties are to a great or less ex¬ tent independent of the volume of The brain. A little independent in¬ vestigation on our own part concerning the men about us who are most able, will confirm this view also. But every one, we may very well suppose, would confidently point to the inventions of the Anglo-Saxon now as conclusive proof of mental superiority. Here, at least, we say, there can be no mistake. But Mr. Kidd has been at great pains to puncture even this consolatory thought, and he is ably supported in his view by Mr.-Edward Bellamy. Both agree that the greatest achievements, inventions, and improve¬ ments of to-day result from all the little items of knowledge passing through many generations of thinkers and added to by each till the final idea brings the discovery to view. Mr. Kidd, in proof of this, says that a large number of the most valuable discoveries have had rival contemporaneous claimants for the honor, mentioning Differential Calculus, Conservation of Energy, Evolution, Interpretation of hiero¬ glyphics, the Undulatory Theory of Lig-ht, the Steam Engine, Spectrum Analysis, the telegraph and telephone. Those conversant with the his¬ tory of several of these know that experiment and study began years ago and came through many men, till the happy inventor put on the final idea, and we had the useful invention. Take electricity as the most striking example of this inheritance of labors. We commonly begin with Franklin's experiment with the kite, though Franklin him¬ self had the idea given him; but, beginning with him, we find not an idea lost, but built upon by one and another, till a century shows the arc light, the trolley, the automobile, the dynamo in factories. The first step in these inventions was to acquaint one's self with all that others had learned about the force and add experiment to that knowledge till the full fruit was gathered. Mr. Gladstone joins the ranks of those who deny the intellectual superiority of this age, saying, "Develop¬ ment, no doubt, is a slow process, but I do not see it at all. I do not think that we are stronger, but weaker, than the men of the Middle Ages." There is still another fiction that stands in the way of that receptive attitude toward the true principles of progress, necessary to a correct foresight and insight. It is the fable of the miraculous qualities of the Anglo-Saxon blood which cannot fail to override all other strains. Now, I do not know where we are to goi to find unmixed Anglo-Saxon blood. Certainly not in England, for the intermixture of Gallic from the Nor- man, Celtic from the Irish, the Welsh and the Scottish, with doubtless a strain of the Latin through the Romans, has produced a blend that can only be called Anglo-Saxon by a fiction of language, the same as that which calls Dumas a Negro because of a drop of African blood FORTUNE-TEUJNG IN HISTORY 15 in his veins." Now, add to this the admixtures of alien blood, Indian, Malay, African and Mongolian, coming from England's world-wyle colonies, both from illicit commence and by cross-marriages, and the fic¬ tion of a pure Anglo-Saxon blood has not much more left in it than Colonel Ingersoll's famous hotel, which was weather-beaten and de¬ serted, but whose sign still swung in the breeze proclaiming the legend of its halcyon days, "Entertainment for Man and Beast!" If this is true of staid, conservative old England, what shall we say of the American who, not content with the blend as he brought it from across the sea, poured into the pot pourri Spanish, French, (merman, Hun¬ garian, Pole, Swedish, Negro and Indian ingredients. If it be agreed that the term' Anglo-Saxon is used for the sake of brevity to cover the people of England and America regardless of the fact of blood, we cannot well object, except to say that its use is unfortunate in that it selects a word having a real end proper meaning to designate a fact not belonging to that proper meaning, and is, to that extent, confusing and misleading. The real fact is, that the resisting' quality 01 some of the decried bloods is more remarkable than the absorbing power shown by the Anglo-Saxon; for a hundred years of contact with American blood, language and institutions have utterly failed to eradicate either the physical characteristics or language of the Spaniards in Florida and Texas, or the French in Louisiana and Canada, though they accept and are proud of the title, American citizen, thus reducing to the mini¬ mum the conscious resistance. But There is another wortt to be said in this connection. If it were granted that Anglo-Saxon domination is in¬ deed a matter of pure blood, both England and America would rob their boasted lineage of much that is greatest in their world of achieve¬ ment and statesmanship. From the time of Cabot down to Disraeli and Gladstone, to say nothing of her Carlyles, Burnses, Moores, Gold¬ smiths and Rothschildses, men not of Saxon blood have contributed the most glorious pages to English history and literature. They were Anglo-Saxons only by the fiction, not by blood. And the same is true in America to an even greater degree. It will be surprising how many of our greatest names have other than Saxon origin. Probably Lin¬ coln and Grant are our strongest names to conjure with wnen we would exalt the Anglo-Saxon- strain in our history. At least, this is true in our political history. Demolins, in his great work on "Anglo-Saxon Superi¬ ority: to What, Is It DueV" seeks to segregate what in the two Anglo- Saxon countries belongs to the other bloods, Celtic, Welsh and Norman. He finds that the leading characteristic of the Anglo-Saxon is attachment to agriculture, industries and commerce, while the other strains just nam¬ ed run to politics and the liberal professions. The Celts, for instance, pre¬ dominates Ireland, in the Scotch Highlands, Australian towns, and in New Zealand. In America politics is mainly run by the Germans and Irish, Tammany being a noted instance in point. The Normans have given to England its law of primogeniture, its hereditary nobility and the House of Lords. It will thus be seen that a scientific investigation into 16 FORTUNE-TELLING IN HISTORY these things destroys many misconceptions, and overthrows the idea that all manifestations of our history belong to one strain alone. It is to be understood that there is no effort here to overthrow tne fact of the actual superiority of these countries. It is freely admitted and rejoiced in, but the contention is simply that it is less a matter of blood, foreor¬ dained to rule because of inhernt uneonquerability, than it is, in part, characteristics predominant in other races entering into our com¬ posite one. : ' 1 i Note one fact, while we are on the question of blood. If present indications are to be the criteria for making up a judgment as to the races to rule in the future, we cannot ignore the Slav, whose empire is to-day the strongest in the world and whose rapid development from barbarism to a world-power has been the wonder of the century. Own¬ ing more of Europe than all the other powers put together, owning more of Asia than any power in the world, recently having fastened a grasp on China that, in its other history, it has never been known to relax, possessing the strategic position of having contact with almost every European power and with nearly every European uependency in Asia, the hardiest of the hardy by reason of a rigorous climate, the most energetic people of the world by reason of the same fact, pos¬ sessed of the wheat fields of the Eastern world, and profiting by the unity of a despotic government that is enlightened enough to cull the best from the other civilizations of both continents,—we may well sup¬ pose these advantages, with the demonstrated power to appreciate, de¬ velop and use them, must presage su remarkable future ror the people possessing them. Not even the climate theory is against the greatness of Russia. And again, shall the ease with which Japan, a Mongolian people, the most variant, except the Negro, from the white races, has put on exteriorly and imbibed in spirit the civilization we are accustomed to call Anglo-Saxon, have no meaning Avith us in pointing out a new and higher path for her in the future? Related to one continent by her insu¬ lar position as England, her great prototype, is to another, will their careers show a similar course? And will China, sorely vexed and raped now, receive the seed of progress by the violence which disrupts her stagnant and archaic life, and produce a strength and power in the next century commensurate with her numerical and territorial magnitude? Here are mighty problems for our oracles to answer. Prince Konoyne, President of the Japanese House of Lords, re¬ cently visited this country, accompanied by a native professor of Tokio University. He stated that he came to gain an intimate knowledge of the American political situation and to get data that might be valuable in the government of Japan. The professor said: "We nave adopted many of your Western ideas, and find that our young people take to them with avidity." These two statements were made respectively in fluent German and English! A few days ago Philadelphia saw the unusual spectacle of a Chinese EORTUNE-TEUJNGFIN HISTORY 17 nobleman discussing before the American Society of Sociai and Political Science the faults of our civilization, and that, too, in the most'gram¬ matical English! Will anyone sneer at the possibilities of such a peo¬ ple ? Now, I approach a nation within a nation—the Negro in America. What have the fortune-tellers said, and what is to be said as to the development he can and will make, the place he is to be accorded, or can wrest, in the life of his country? In the Negro's case there have never been wanting those whose notes of evil rang with the confidence of divination or inspiration. We have been told of his failures,* hisi excellences, his limits, nis capacities, his assimilability, his alienism, times galore. I shall compress in as small space as possible this great mass of owlish deliverance, in the hope that out of the sifting we may find the sure grains of truth and, sometimes, verification so far as time "has brought them to light. If we find this or that line of prophecy true, we snail be a;t less loss to see the outcome of the whole matter as a final proposition. If we find this dark enigma has done better than our forebodings whispered, we need not be discouraged if he has dene less than cur partiality expected, for we shall have evidence that growth, and not decay, belongs to him, even if the rate of it be different from the sanguine predictions of those who proclaim him the wonder of the world, and his furry scalp the most- valuable of sables. Up to the time of American slavery, the Negro had never been in receiving contact with a great civilization. He was known only as a black savage. Men estimated his human content by the light his past and present shed upon it. The judgment was against him. Reversing the old proverb, we said, What a man has) not done, he cannot do; and there is rested. Out of this false philosophy grew a host of false propo¬ sitions. Starting with the dictum that Negroes have no souls, we have been forced slowly to abandon many former positions because it was human pride, human greed, human injustice speaking through us. Much that seemed the deep utterance of profound learning and the fearless expression of all candor, has proven to be the stubborn lan¬ guage of desire and self-juslification. Thus, many a man, great in his proper sphere, has departed from his greatness in this. Let us consider some of these efforts at fortune-telling seriatim: 1. Alexander H. Stephens said: "The Confederacy's corner-stone rests upon the great truth that the Negro is not equal to the white man, that slavery, subordination to the superior race, is his natural and nor¬ mal condition." The corner-stone proved unstable, for it and the super-structure are overthrown, and over two hundred thousand Negroes helped to do* it. 2. John C. Calhoun said: "If one Negro can be found who can con¬ strue a sentence in Greek, I am willing to concede1 the attributes of hu¬ manity to the race." rrofessor W. S. Scarborough, of Wilberforce, O., has written a 18 FORTUNE-TELLING IN HISTORY Greek grammar and read a paper before the American Pliilological So¬ ciety on "The Birds of Aristophanes." 3. Thomas Jefferson) said: "I do not believe him capable of demon¬ strating a proposition in Euclid." Kelley Miller is now professor of mathematics in Howard Uni¬ versity, Washington City. Mr. Pelham, of Detfoit, Mich., was assistant civil engineer for the Michigan Central Railroad when lie died. The professor of higher mathematics in a Southern Negro college is in¬ structing the white county surveyor how to calculate railroad curves! 4. Robert Toombs said: "I will yet call the roll of my slaves under the shadow of Bunker Hill Monument." To-day the tax-rolls of his ex-slaves are being called under the shadow of his old home in Georgia. Notice that in each of these cases the argument seemed conclusive, and nothing was forthcoming in rebuttal; but Time had not qualified her witnesses to answer—that was all. 5. It was predicted that the Negro would not work in a state of freedom. Here is the answer: In 1865, to consider one item alone, four and a half million Negroes produced 3,000,000 bales of cotton, or two-thirds of a bale to the man; in 1898, after thirty-three years of freedom, nine million Negroes produced 10,000,000 bales, or over one whole bal» to the man. 6. He was said to be too improvident to accumulate property, and many philanthropic persons expressed the fear that, turned loose as he was, without experience and without ai dollar, he would,starve. But he did not starve and he does not beg. On the contrary, the estimated values upon which he pays taxes (and this excludes his church and school property) are $400,000,000. Nineteen per cent, of the Negro fam¬ ilies are home-owners, the census showing 264,288 homes owned, with 234,747 of them free from incumbrance. Taken out of its setting of the brief time in which this has been done, and away from all comparison with the achievements of other people always free, these figures may not mean much; but with these back-grounds, the showing is phe¬ nomenal. The Negro lias been free only one-third of a century. In France and the United States (white), where conditions are the best, the ratio of home-owning to non-home-owning families is as 1 to 2; in Ger¬ many, 1 to 3; in England, 1 to 5; in Ireland, 1 to 10; among the Amer¬ ican Negroes, 1 to 5. Here is a state of mind for the fortune-tellers. 7. It was held that the Negro was a good imitator and follower, but a failure in initiative and organizing power. It is only a little while ago since definite matter tending to dis¬ prove this view was available. Aside from what could be seen in a general way among Negro churches, there was nothing on the other side to adduce, but it is somewhat different now. For over a hundred years, two great Negro church organizations, claiming, combined, over a mil¬ lion communicants, have successfully managed their affairs, operating FORTUNE-TELLING IN HISTORY 19 missionary, educational, publication, financial, church, extension, and Sunday-school bureaus, some of whose operations reach over $100,000 a year in one of these organizations, and whose field of Operations reaches both sides of the world and involves, bank credit. In 1898, Dr. W. E, B. DuBois, in his third report of the Atlanta Uni¬ versity Annual Conference, treats of the work1 of 79 churches, 92 secret societies, 26 beneficial societies, 3 insurance societies, 21 Denevolent or¬ ganizations, and 15 co-operative societies, making 236 in all. Passing over all but the largest, the True Reformers, a co-operat-ive enterprise, in Richmond, Va., we find it is capitalized for $100,000, owns $115,000 in buildings, residences and the like; has 7086 depositors, and $101,- 933.32 deposited. Since its establishment, in 1889, it claims to have handled $3,795,667.36, and to have paid out for the insurance lepart- ment $370,910.75. This is a straw. S. It is said that the giving of the ballot to the Negro was a, mis¬ take, and that he is incapable of statesmanship. The ballot wasi not given to him as a matter of fact till it was seen that he must have it in self-defense. It was two years after he was freed before he was made a voter, and then only after tne States had shown by a system of apprentice and vagrant laws intended to, and which really did, virtually re-enslave him, that he must have some means to defend himself from the animosities engendered against him by the issue of the Civil War. Who that criticises can suggest a better way for his protection than that adopted? And despite Dis own igno¬ rance and the Caucasian leadership that must be charged with most that is monstrous and corrupt in that time, two facts stand out to the eternal credit of the Negro—the only two, perhaps, that survive tHe new constitutions and have the approval of the white people of the South- public free schools for< every child, and the principle of Federal appro¬ priations for internal improvements. Both were opposed by the whites; both are now cordially accepted and championed by them. No people are more zealous in their support of public education than the Southern white people to-day, and no Congressmen are able to make a better argument in favor of a large appropriation than theirs. The sole rejec¬ tion of the Sugar Bounty by Texas serves to -emphasize the fact that she stands alone. 9. Strange as it now seems, it was once said by the fortune-tellers that the Negro could never learn books. Forty-three per cent, of all ten years old and over can read and write to-day. * 10. When this failed, they fell back upon the statement that he could never take the higher learning. There are over 30,000 Negro graduates of colleges now in the United States- 749 physicians, 450 lawyers, and about 30,000 school teachers. 11. But the prophets return to the charge with the statement that he is not making progress as fast as other races with the same ad¬ vantages would. FORTUNE-TELLING IN HISTORY In the ten years between 1880 and 1890, Negro illiteracy was re¬ duced 14.8 per cent.; white illiteracy, only 4.4 per cent. There were 308,650 fewer black illiterates here in 1890 than in 1880, but there were 193,494 more white illiterates, making a net increase of 84,844, all white. Again, in 1876, only 3 per cent, of all Negroes were in school; in 1896, 20 per cent, were attending. In 1890, there were 175 schools for the higher and industrial education of this race, 28 of tnem managed by members of the race, and 6 of them founded and managed by them. Thirty-three thousand students attend these schools. 12. Some alarmist finally raised the cry that at their rate of in¬ crease, the Negroes would soon overrun the country. In the hundred years between 1790 and 1890, the whites increased from a little over 3,000,000 to eighteen timesi as many; the Negro from 750,000 to only ten times as many. 13. Well, said a counter-alarmist, the Negro is dying out. In 1860, there were 4,500,000 Negroes in America; to-day there are 9,000,000, a doubling in about thirty-five years. 14.—One of the main and undisputed contentions of the prophets was that the Negro could not stand a cold climate. This, taken with the climate theory, was intended to convey the idea that his position among the Caucasian race must always be an inferior one. A single instance of disproof will be sufficient to suggest others: In 1870 there were 22,147 Negroes in Philadelphia; in 1890 there were 39,371. From 1870 to 1880 the city increased as a whole 25.69 per cent.; but its Negro population increased 43.13 per cent. In the ten years from 1880 to 1890, the city increased 25.3 per cent; the Negro popula¬ tion, 25#per cent. 15. Judging from his docility in slavery, it was long neld by friend and foe that the race lacked courage to fight. But with New Orleans, Wagner, Pillow, El Caney and San Juan before them, the fortune- tellers are silent. It would seem that in the face of this showing, men would allow, if not the equality of the Negro under like conditions, at least, that his powers are as yet unfathcmed, and that more time will be required to determine his place, but the hasty and hostile prejudgments still go on. Why should a man fight against the decrees of Gou and nature V Why should he even desire to see them' changed? When the Negro has reached his limit he will stop; till then, nothing can stop him. Again, it would seem that it is beneath the dignity of ai people who feel themselves the masters of the world1 to begrudge iand retard the progress of those who can never be their rivals, as they say. Yet a glance at the dire predictions we have just recited shows that they are often contradictory and agree in only one particular—in being hostile and uncandid. Is it wise to deceive ourselves to please ourselves? Can juggling figures strangle facts? Our sole desire should be to know the truth and not be found opposing the inevitable. You ask me what is the inevitable. I tell you I do not know; but I shall seek to know. At FORTUNE-TELIyING IN HISTORY any rate, I shall not be found proclaiming God's purposes till He has revealed them. can know when we are against God even before we know His will—by the spirit within us. If it is one of love and good-will and help¬ fulness to all men, even the Negro, we shall not be found far wrong, no matter what we believe can or cannot be done. It would be a fruitful inquiry to ask why so many reforms have succeeded against the opposition of the numerous, the powerful and the rich—why the poor and despised classes have constantly gained rights and privileges against the will and protest of the migvnty. Such re¬ forms have always implied the restriction of the power of the ruling forces; such extension of privileges to the people has always meant the limiting of the immunities of the upper classes. How, then, were these things possible? Reform movements begin in weakness and ridicule; the submerged masses are always lacking in organization and leader¬ ship. The success and strength of a just cause lie in the fact that those who light it are weakened and dispirited by the consciousness that they are fighting against righteousness. Hence the finest and strongest souls surrender first, then disintegration in the ranks follows faster and faster till all yield. Thus doth conscience make cowards of us all, and God's three hundred prevail over the mighty, though the one have1 only pitch¬ ers, lights and trumpets to fight against the others' swords and spears and shields. We desire to close this discussion by a summing up of the good that the Negro offers in the problems before us, and the burdens he lays upon us, as well. The following things belong toi the credit .side of the account: His great physical endurance. His cheerful nature, rising above every circumstance. His lack of vindictiveness. His love of his white neighbor. His love of country. His desire for the respect of others. His self-respect, as shown in his good opinion of himself. His confidence in his own future. His acquisitiveness, as shown in what he has already acquired in property against great odds. His growing indications of social efficiency, as shown in the increas¬ ing organizations, church and secular, he is successfully conducting. His deep religious nature and wealth of emotion. His power of assimilation and adaptability, making him the only one of the so-called inferior races that has ever! failed to dwindle and die in the face of our civilization. The following are the burdens he lays upon us: His ignorance. His low average of morality. FORTUNE-TELLING IN HISTORY His lack of enterprise. His lack of self-reliance. These are some of. the injustices he now suffers: Exclusion from full participancy in the benefits of our civilization and in the use of all the agencies of advancement granted to other citizens. Contempt and a spirit of resentment against his pretensions or as¬ pirations! to a full manhood. A willingness to refuse him the privileges lawfully his, and to use dishonorable means to evade obligations solemn and morally binding, which the laws we have sworn to obey put upon us to abridge in no way the rights, privileges, and immunities of the humblest citizen. Confusion as to the bearing of his civil rights upon his social status. A determination to take the fixing of his place out of the hands of God and fix it, right or wrong, where we would have it be. Making out our case by magnifying faults common to all classes and by ignoring or concealing the good that is to be seen. These are some of the benefits and advantages he enjoys: Living in sight and touch of our civilization, with its mighty sug¬ gestions and incentives. Being allowed some participancy in its operations. Situated so as to imbibe the spirit of Christianity. Subject to the toning up that comes from favorable climatic con¬ ditions. Adopting the Saxon ideal in' education and progressiveness. Realizing by comparison how far behind he is in the race of life. Learning that no people seeking the light will have tne solid oppo¬ sition of the superior class against which it must contend, but that many of the strongest and best will be found crying for fair play and a freei field. And thus the case is made up, with God and all good courageous men on the side of full opportunity for the struggler, to determine with-1 out prejudgment whafl he can do and how far he can go before nature and his endowment stop him; and with the unfair, prejudiced and un¬ christian classes on the other, to order the constitution of nature as they will it. Where shall we place ourselves? I referred to the story of the released giant in the Arabian Nights, but I did not finish it. Let me do so now. The fisherman finally per¬ suaded the giant to prove that he really came out of the kettle by re¬ solving himself again into mist and re-entering the vessel, then suddenly closing it, the fisherman refused to open it till he had exacted a prom¬ ise of help and protection from the imprisoned giant. So the liberal Christian and altruistic spirit that lias made possible the release of the great material and natural forces that are now threatening the de¬ struction of their liberator in the substitution of a selfish commercial¬ ism for fraternal love, must coax them back into bounds and make them helpers and allies in bringing in the better day when the lion and the lamb shall lie down together. ■