Hopper " Review of Dr. S.W. Williams' Middle Kingdom D5709 .W72H25 : ' >: A REVIEW. DR. S. W. WILLIAMS’ MIDDLE KINGDOM, CHAPTER Y. AND STATISTICS. V By Rev. A. P. Happer, D.D. POPULATION Warfield Library M 0ST readers who take up this elegant reissue of a standard work on China will naturally turn to the chapters which discuss the subjects in which they feel a special interest. Many will turn first to the last chapters in the 2nd Vol., which continue the history of the intercourse with Foreign nations till the present time. Some will turn with special interest to the chapters on the nature of the Chinese Language and its Literature, seeing that the learned author is now the Professor of the Chinese Language and Literature in one- of 'the oldest Colleges in the U.S.A. At this parti- cular juncture, when a war with France is much discussed, some readerswill tu#i first to those chapters which giye some details of the wars of 1840 and of 1860 in order that they may form some correct opinion in reference to the knowledge which the Chinese have of military science and art. It is only the truth to say that on most things pertaining to China, those who consult this revised edition of a valuable work will find the information they seek. It is not my purpose to give any general review of the whole range of subjects that are treated of in this cyclopedic work. My purpose is to present to our readers a statement of the results of the latest investigations of the learned Professor on the population of China followed with further discussion of the subject. The author has made fewer changes in this chapter than perhaps in any other of equal interest in the two volumes. These pages are occupied with a detailed presentation of the censuses of the population which have been taken from the ninth century B. C., and in subsequent periods down to 1868, with discussions on various matters connected with them. Those discussions take a wide range presenting reasons for regarding some of the censuses as more reliable than others, stating considerations intended to show that the productions of the country could support such a population as is tlieri stated to exist and comparing the density of the population in China with that in other countries in Europe and Asia. Dr. Williams adheres to the opinion which he expressed in the first edition that the census of 1872 which makes the population at that time to be 362,447,183, is the most reliable census which has been, made known to Foreigners. He then gives from Almanac cle Gotha 1882, as taken from Chinese Customs’ Reports the population of each separate province, making the aggregate population of the eighteen provinces in 1881 to be 380,000,000. 2 Professor Williams expresses his opinion in reference to the population of the Empire and the reliabibly of the -censuses thus, “ The subject of the population of China has engaged the attention of the monarchs of the present dynasty, and their censuses have been the best sources of information in making up an intelligent opinion upon the matter. Whatever may be our views of the actual population, it is plain that these censuses, with all their discrepancies and inaccuracies, are the only reliable sources of information. The conflicting opinions and conclusions of foreign writers neither give i any additional weight to them, nor detract from their credibility. As the question stands at the present, they can be doubted, but they : cannot be denied ; it is impossible to prove them, while there are i many grounds for believing them ; The enormous total which they j exhibit can be declared to be improbable, but not shown to be impossible.” Yol. 1. pp. 258-9. “ From 1792 to 1812 the increase j of the population [as shown by the censuses of these dates] was 54,126,679 or an annual advance of 2,706,338, not quite one per cent per annum for twenty years. At the same ratio of progress i the present population would amount to over 450,000,000 ; and this might have been the case had not the Tai-ping rebellion reduced the numbers. An enumeration, No. 22 [referring to the number in the list of censuses giving the population as 404,946,514] was published in 1868 by the Russian Professor of Chinese Vassibivitch as a translation from official documents. Foreigners have had greater opportunities for travel through the country between the years 1840-1880 and have ascertained the enormous depopulation in some places caused by wars, short supplies of food in consequence of scarcity of laborers, famines, brigandage, each adding its own power of destruction at different times and places. The conclusion will not completely satisfy any inquirer, but the population of the empire cannot now reasonably be estimated as high as the census of 1812 by at least twenty-five millions. The last in the list of the censuses, No 28, is added as an example of the efforts of intelligent persons residing in China to come to a definite and independent j conclusion on this point from such d^ita as they can obtain. The Imperial Customs Service has been able to command the best native assistance in their researches and the table of population given above from the Gotha Almanac is the summary of what has been j ascertained. The population of extra-provincial China is really unknown at present. Manchuria is put down at twelve millions by one author, and at three or four millions by another, without any official authority for either; and all those vast regions in Hi and Thibet may be easily set down at from twelve to fifteen millions.! 3 To sum up, one must confess that if the Chinese censuses are worth but little, compared with those taken in European states, they are better than the guesses of foreigners who have never been in the country, or who have travelled only partially in it.” pp. 270-1. We think alj our readers will agree in the opinion which Dr. Williams has himself expressed viz. “ that the conclusion will not completely satisfy any inquirer , but the population of the empire cannot now reasonably be estimated as high as the census of 1812 by at least twenty-five millions.” And most readers will, I think, agree in the opinion that the chapter on the population of China is the most unsatisfactory one in the whole book. Dr. Williams has indicated very clearly the source whence valuable materials for confirming or disproving the figures as given in the censuses might be obtained, viz, from the observation of foreign travellers. Up to 1848 the exclusion of foreigners was so complete that there was no opportunity of gaining information of the state of the country by such observation. Hence those who investigated such questions as the number of the population, were shut up to the statements of Chinese censuses and native writers, and surmises as to the probable correctness of their statements ; and the possibilititus of the productions of the country being sufficient to support a population so numerous as it was reported to be. The consideration of such probabilities does not satisfy inquirers; and when there is the oppor- tunity of travelling in the country and comparing the appearance of things and the evidences of the populousness of the provinces with that of western countries where the correct number of the popula- tion is fully known, we are not restricted to statements given in the censuses, and by native writers. Notwithstanding Professor Williams’ declaration that the censuses cannot be disproved most persons will admit that the statements of intelligent travellers do greatly discredit their figures. But before proceeding to present the observations of travellers in China we must draw attention to a census of the population of China to which Dr. Williams has not referred. This is the census of 1842 as reported by Mr. Sacharoff member of the Imperial Russian Embassy in Peking and translated into English by the Rev. W. Lobscheid and published in Hongkong in 1862. In this census the population is given at 414,686,994. This number was made out, the author says from “the rolls for the years A.D. 1841 and 1842, which were obtained ” the writer says “ from the Minister of Finance. According to this list the population of China amounted to 178,634,087 families and 418,457,311 individuals for 1841 and 179,554,967 families, and 414,686,994 individuals in 1842.” 4 English Translation p. 49, Mr. Sacharoff says, “We find in the census of twenty six years from A.D. 1757 to 1783, an increase of 98,685,457 individuals, i.e. nearly 3,603,287 annually. From A.D. 1782 to 1812, i.e. within a period of twenty-nine years, we find an increase of 77,685,394, or at the rate of 2,677,914 indi- viduals annually. From A.D. 1812 to 1842 thirty years elapsed, and the increase of the population within this period] is only 53,993,797 or an average annual increase of 1,799,797 individuals.” + p. 50. In this census of 1842 the population of Chihli province is stated to be 36,879,838 and that of Chekiang is stated to be 30,437,974; Kiangsu 39,646,924; Nganhwei 3ff,596,968 ; Fuhkien 25,799,556; Kansuh 19,512,716. The author after presenting these figures for the census of 1842 says, “ In conclusion, and in confir- mation of what we have said, we will give a few extracts from native Reports and Reivews, which, during the last century and in different times, have been collated in the work entitled Chuan-chan Tsin-shi Wan-pan ; — To ascertain the amount of the population is not a very easy task. Eight persons are in general counted to each family. But with this computation we get only an approximative and hypothetical increase of the population. We only know the population has considerably increased ; but it is difficult to prove the exact number of its increase. You examine the rolls and suddenly discover fresh abuses. A large number live in villages and distant regions. Were we to command all the inhabitants to appear with their families before the magistrates, that would become intolerable to the people ; were we to command the magistrates to proceed in person into the villages and settlements, in order to ascertair the number of inhabitants in every house, that would become too burdensome to the officers. The district magistrates never get through their judicial proceedings and the levying of taxes, and have not n single holiday which they could devote to the revision. The most diligent and most acute is incompetent to verify the census. Hence their inferiors have treated the subject with the utmost indifference; and entirely neglected their duty. The verifica- tion of the census for every five years is also no easy task. If we cannot have the verification of former censuses, then it is impossible to ascertain the truth with accuracy; for it is neither easy nor possible to enroll the merchants and the remainder of the fluctuat- ing population, who to-day arrive at place and quit it to-morrow. Hence the clerks are commissioned with taking the census as formerly and with this the matter drops.” p. 52. The writer at page 50 in referring to the census of 1842, says, “ These figures show that, the same abuses which characterized the 5 reign of the Sung prevail also in our days. For the present census gives only two souls to one family. When and under what unhappy circumstances can such a state of things exist ? Husband and wife are two persons but where are the children ?” And yet in the pass- age quoted above from Chinese writers it is stated that — “ Eight persons are in general counted to each family.” These statements bring forward one great cause of the uncertainty of the Chinese censuses, and the reason of the discrepancies that appear in the figures as given by different writers. Dr. Williams says ; “ In the tables, for example, they employ the phrase Jin-ting for a male over 15 years of age as the integer; this has then to be multiplied by some factor of increase to get at the total population; and this figure must; be obtained elsewhere. It must not be overlooked that the object in taking a census being to calculate the probable revenue by enumerating the taxable persons, the margin for error and deficiency depends on the peace of the state at the time, and not chiefly on the estimate of five or more to a household.” Vol. I. p. 268. We would say the margin for error is very great from better sources. For first, each taxable person that is omitted does not withdraw one from the aggregate number, but the number which is fixed upon for a family, whether that number may be 3 or 5, and, second, when the number of taxable persons is given it makes a very great difference in the aggregate of individuals whether that number is multiplied by 3 or 5. And to this day, after some 200 years of discussion, the various writers are not agreed as to which figure should be used. Some multiply the number of taxable persons by 8 and some by 5, and hence the discrepancies in the statement of the aggregates, and yet Mr. Sacharoff says; “that in the census of 1842, the number of individuals is only a few more than double the number given as the integers. And the Chinese author quoted by him says “ the number reckoned to a family,” is neither 3, nor 5 but 8. This statement throws the aggregates of the individuals as given into great confusion and uncertainty. It would appear most obvious, that in order to have any certainty in the matter we must know what is the purpose for which a given census is taken. If it is to know the taxable inhabitants then it must be settled by some recognized Chinese authorities what proportion of the whole number are taxable, and then multiply the number of taxables by the ratio to get the whole number, and even then it will only be an approximation to the actual number. Mr. Sacharoff accepts the census of 1812 as reliable and bases his arguments in favor of the correctness of the census of 1842 largely on the fact that the ratio of the increase of population from 6 1.812 to 1842 was nearly the same as that which had occurred from 1782 to 1812 and hence the reasons for accepting the reported figures of the population in 1842 are in the main the same as accepting those of 1812. These give the population in 1842 to be 414,686,994. It appears strange that Dr. Williams should not have alluded at all to this census. To complete the List of censuses he should have given the numbers of the population as published by Mr. Sacharoff. I proceed now to present the observation of travellers in China during these latter years. No traveller in China has had better opportunities of observa- tion, or has been better qualified to give reliable opinions on the state of the country and its population that Baron Yon Bichthoven. In his Letter on the Provinces of Chekiang and Nganhwei of 1871 he says : “ It is with some hesitation that I undertake to present an attempt at estimating the population of the province of Che- kiang. But it is desirable that we should arrive at some correct figures in respect to the statistics of China, and I cordially invite contradiction to statements if it tends to correct them. If the area of Chekiang is computed on the great map of China as published at Wuchang, we arrive at the following detailed figures; total area 35,425 statute miles, or about 36,000 square miles, if the islands are included. [The Baron divides the whole into some 8 sub-areas according to natural divisions as the alluvial plain and the basins of different rivers and the number of square miles in each subdivision]. Those portions of this area comprised under the numbers 1 and 4, and having an aggregate area of 3,750 square miles, are the southern extremity of the plain of the lower Yang-tze, and, like the other parts of it, are densely populated. Although it was undoubtedly more populous in former times, an average of 500 inhabitants to a square mile is probably a very high estimate, if we include in it the country and the district cities. I add besides, for the five departmental cities. It results from my preceding descrip- tion of Chekiang, that the rest of the province is very hilly; and although it contains about 2000 square miles of tolerably well populated broad valley land, this is more than counter-balanced by large tracts of country which are nearly uninhabited. I believe I do not underrate the population of this hilly part in putting it down at 100 to the square mile. We have then 3750 square miles with 500 inhabitants to the square mile 1,875,000 : 32,250 square miles with 100 inhabitants per square mile 3,225,000 : Population of Hangchow, Kiahing, Huchow, Shaohing, and Ningpo, 2,000,000. If we add for the fishing population on the coast and the islands 1,000,000 we have a total of 8,100,000 inhabitants, or 225 to a square mile. a It is my opinion that these figures are too high, and 7 that an actual census would show no more than five or six millions. To refer to only once instance. The basin of the Fansui river covers about 1200 square miles. At the above rate for the hilly districts of 100 to the square mile, it should contain 120,000 inhabitants. But in attempting to compute their actual number on the basis of personal observation, I got to consider 13,000 inhabitants as the highest limit within the range of probability .” “Dr. Williams puts the area of Chekiang at 39,150 square miles, and the number of inhabitants, according to the census of 1812, at 26,000,000; this gives an average of 671 inhabitants to a square mile. The discrepancy between this statement and my own is due, in part, to the destruction of life by the Tai-ping rebels. But it should teach us, at the same time, to accept with distrust statistical figures made up by the Chinese Government. The number of 617 inhabitants to the square mile exceeds by more than one half the density of population of Belgium, the most thickly settled country of Europe, and nearly four times the average density of France. These proportions appear quite unnatural, if it is borne in mind that Belgium is eminently an agricultural, manufacturing and mining country, while Chekiang, with the exception of one ninth of its area, which undoubtedly was formerly among the most densely inhabited portions of the globe, is covered with hills interspersed with a few valleys. Whoever has travelled through the province must consider the number given by the so called census as perfectly absurd. If the number of twenty-six millions is reduced by one half, or thirteen millions, the average density of the population would still have exceeded that of Belgium. It is not probable that it ever has been up to so favorable a proportion in the most flourishing times.” Mr. Hippesley of the Customs service published in his report from Chekiang of 1879, that he “had read in the Peking Gazette of March, 17th, 1880, a postcript memorial from the Governor of this province reporting the result of a general census held in the Autumn of the fifth year of the present reign (1879). The population of Chekiang which I had estimated as slightly over 15,000,000 is given according to this census at 11,541,054. The census of 1812 having stated the then population at 29,256,784 the present returns show a reduction of 14,700,000 souls, or nearly 60 per cent and an average to the square mile of 265, instead of 671, [which was the average according to the census of 1812].” The reduction in the number of the population of this one province as stated by an official census of 1876 is nearly 3/5 of 25 millions, the number of reduction which Dr. Williams supposes might have occurred in the whole eighteen provinces by the causes referred to. 8 I proceed to present statements showing depopulation in the province of Nganhwei. Baron Yon Richthoven says in the same letter quoted from above of 1871 “ Nganhwei is known to be among the most populous provinces of China ; and although the Tai-ping rebellion was attended by at least as great a destruction of life and property as in Chekiang, the productive power of the country is still great. * * * If one considers the state of utter depopulation of the provinces infested by the Tai-ping rebels;” &c. p. 18. In Chinas Millions for July 1875, p. 44, a writer describing the horrors of civil war in China says; “ Nganhwei province had for merely a population of 39 millions. During the latter part of the Tai-ping rebellion it suffered most severely. Twice did the rebel hordes pass through its fertile valleys, carrying off its possessions and with them multitudes of the people, never alas ! to return to their desolated home. A great part of the population fled at the approach of the rebels. Famine followed and pestilence in its wake. Thirty out of the thirty-nine millions were swept away to their eternal destiny. So complete in some districts was the destruction, that for miles not a man, nor woman, nor child, not a hamlet, nor cottage, nor hut was left behind : and years after, heaps of unburied bones told the passers by of the fate of the hapless inhabitants.” In Chinas Millions for 1878, Mr. J. J. Turner, when making a journey through the north part of Nganhwei, says ; C( crossing the Yang-tze we soon entered the road in a north-western direction. The northern part of this province through which our road lay is very desolate. Here and there are signs of cultivation, but the greater part of it is lying -waste. There were some well built bridges partly destroyed, a few villages of mud huts among heaps of ruins and very few people are to be seen. I believe thirty millions from this province perished in the rebellion. We passed through their villages, and saw the ruins ; we passed by some of their cities and saw marks of violence on every hand.” p. 10. In Chinas Millions for April 1880, p. 45. Mr. Pearse writes, <