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THE ESSENTIALS OF AN ENDURING VICTORY WORKS OF ANDRE CHERADAME THE ESSENTIALS OF AN ENDURING VICTORY THE PANGERMAN PLOT UNMASKED THE UNITED STATES AND PANGERMANIA L'EUROPE ET LA QUESTION D'AUTRICHE AU SEUIL DU XXE SIECLE [1901J (Czech and Russian translations) L'ALLEMAGNE, LA FRANCE ET LA QUESTION D'AUTRICHE [1902] (An abridgment of the preceding) LA MACEDOINE, LE CHEMIN DE FER DE BAG- DAD [1903] LA COLONISATION ET LES COLONIES ALLE- MANDES [1905] LE MONDE ET LA GUERRE RUSSO-JAPONAISE [1906] LA CRISE FRANCAISE [1912] DOUZE ANS DE PROPAGANDE EN FAVEUR DES PEUPLES BALKANIQUES [1913] LA PAIX QUE VOUDRAIT L'ALLEMAGNE, 191S [191s] (Pamphlet) LE PLAN PANGERMANISTE DEMASQUE [1916] (English, Portuguese, Spanish, Italian, Russian, and Japanese translations) PAN-GERMANY, THE DISEASE AND THE CURE, AND A PLAN FOR THE ALLIES [1918] LES BENEFICES DE GUERRE DE L'ALLEMAGNE ET LA FORMULE BOCHE " NI ANNEXIONS, NI INDEMNITES" [1918] (Pamphlet) THE ESSENTIALS OF AN ENDURING VICTORY BY ANDRE CHERADAME AUTHOR OF "the FANGEBMAN PLOT UNMASKED ' WITH MAPS NEW YORK CHARLES SCRIBNER'S SONS 1918 -^ Copyright, 1918, by CHARLES SCRIBNER'S SONS Published December, 1918 DEC 12 1918 ©CI.A508533 PREFACE A considerable number of the Allies believe that the conclusion of the armistice with Ger- many on November 10th, 1918, signified that all was over, that we were assured of abso- lute victory, and that the general demobiliza- tion could be immediately begun. As this is an erronous belief, it constitutes a source of immense danger. The object of this book is to show this danger in the strongest light, and to convince public opinion that it is urgently necessary to guard against it without delay. I shall show that our victory may be very seriously com- promised during the armistice preceding peace. Many of my readers may possibly be sur- prised by this statement, especially those who as yet know nothing of me; and for this reason I must first explain why I am partic- ularly entitled to be heard by the general public at this crucial moment of the world's history. During a period of twenty years before VI PREFACE 1914, I devoted all my time and all my means to the defense of peace. In order to avoid entirely the horrors of this war, I had care- fully studied the conditions which would cause it with the view of showing how it could best be prevented. Events have shown that the measures I ad- vanced in my books, published from 1901 to 1914, to prevent the German aggression, were right. If, therefore, these measures had been followed, this horrible war would never have taken place, and millions of men would still be living. These things justify me in thinking that I can give some information that will be especially useful to prevent a recurrence of the war. There are other reasons why confidence may be accorded me: The two maps given on pages viii and ix demonstrate that already in 1901 I had clearly explained in what the Pangerman plan con- sisted, exactly as it was realized sixteen years later, in 1917. In 1912, I declared that the European war would begin by an attack on Serbia (see La Defense Nationale, November 30th, 1912), that the German offensive against France which would follow would be ''terrific in its na- PREFACE vii ture," and "pushed to the verge of frenzy" (see La Grise frangaise, page 507) . As the result of four months' investigation in the Balkans at the beginning of 1914, I published in the Paris Correspondant (June, 1914) indications which showed that the gov- ernment of Vienna ''was about to set off an explosion which should destroy the state of things beginning to take shape in the Bal- kans." In August, 1914, I pointed out that Bulgaria would declare war against the Allies as soon as they met with a military defeat, which came to pass after the affair in the Dardanelles. In my book. The Pangerman Plot Unmasked, published at the beginning of 1916 (see page 73), I denounced in advance the series of Ger- man pacifist manoeuvres, including the one now in progress — the armistice trick, based on the evacuation of Belgium and France, to be followed by a negotiated peace which finally, in spite of first appearances, would result in a German victory. This peril still exists in a much greater de- gree than is believed, but we can completely avert it if the Allies take advantage of the tremendous effect produced by the defeat of Bulgaria and the revolt of the oppressed Vlll PREFACE •< r-t ■« o , OS ^'-^ V s .a e d 4^ •F^ d to S.2 a ^3 ^ book, ry, pu Paris. i W "C 4» -o "«. S *-i 4) S '« o ao-3 01 c« fl fl '^'^S e3 s* ■» is f-^ -to n 13 Che went lie G 5 »a) PN ^ ^g- -o^x -Sa ^ Cts tn S o 353 penin publi 1 ft-« cS •** &, ^ *o P-sU >. c3 O ^ S^ s-^=« & s ^ K 1*1 t a ■^Iz «^ *^ - -■^9 1 CO o ea P^ PREFACE IX X PREFACE peoples in Austria-Hungary, who have opened to the AUies a free, triumphal road from Bel- grade or Fiume to northern Bohemia; that is, to a point only 250 kilometres south of Berlin. These events, which in the single month of October, 1918, completely trans- formed the general situation of the Allies, grew out of the application of a political strategy on the principles and methods of which I have not ceased to point out from the beginning of the war. See U Illustration^ January 2d, 1915; "How to Destroy Panger- many," Atlantic Monthly, December, 1917; Pangermany, the Disease and Cure, and a Plan for the Allies. On page 211 of this book, pub- lished by the Atlantic Monthly early in 1918, will be found a formula summarizing the con- ditions of victory, which, as events have since shown, were amply carried out by the Allies in September-October, 1918. On page 212 of the same book, I said once more: ''In reality it is enough that the Austro- German communications should be seriously disturbed for the situation to become, with extraordinary swiftness, very difficult both morally and materially for the armies con- centrated on the western front by the Ger- man Staff." PREFACE xi I said at the end of this book: "If we en- courage the Slavs, we shall inevitably bring about an internal explosion in Pangermany, and before the close of 1918 complete victory will be ours." A long series of events sustain my predic- tions. Not that I am at all a prophet; I am only what may be called a good mechanic- engineer who has studied the very complicated European machine long and deeply, and, as is only natural under such circumstances, I can see much farther into the future than those who have not undergone the same special training. The service which I may now be able to render lies in pointing out to the general public the great dangers of the period of armistice, and the way to avert them. We must first understand that the armistice signed by Germany is not identical with an unconditional surrender. This agreement gives strong guarantees to the Allies, no doubt, but none the less it limits their action, as they are not allowed to occupy the whole territory of Germany. The German army is not de- mobilized, it is simply to withdraw beyond a xii PREFACE definite zone, and a portion of its material is still in its possession. The armistice is therefore an agreement which assumes, on the one hand, that the Ger- mans will keep their word, and, on the other, that the Allies will know how to draw the most advantages from the securities which have been given them. The application of the principle of repara- tion for damage caused is in particular re- markably elastic. It may be applied in a way so inadequate that — as I shall show later on — the final result would be that France would in reality completely lose the war — a result which would have as its consequence the de- feat of all the AUies. The armistice is, then, a convention, that is, a paper, worth just as much as its applica- tion; and while the armistice is in force the Germans and those who take their part in the different Allied countries will surely at- tempt — 1st. To increase the enormous lessening of morale which the conclusion of the armistice has brought about among the Allied troops by making them think that there can be imme- diate demobilization. 2d. To modify the conditions of the armi- stice or to secure their incomplete execution. PREFACE xiii 3d. To stir up rivalries which may naturally exist between the greater Allies and between the peoples to be set free by the Entente in central and eastern Europe, but which have hitherto been held in check by the restraints of the war. 4th. By means of this situation to reach a negotiated peace. 5th. To obtain much more favorable con- ditions of peace, on the plea that the Ger- mans are now republicans. When one is familiar with the persistency and power of German propaganda it is clear that if these modes of action are systematically applied for several months, at the peace the Allied victory will be shorn of much of its greatness. I state below certain things which have taken place or became known in the space of only seventy-two hours before or after the signature of the armistice by Germany, November 10th, 1918. The Evening Post of November 11th an- nounces that the delegates from the Central Powers will have preparatory conferences with the envoys of the Allies. A negotiated peace in conformity with Boche ideas is, then, in preparation, which is contrary to the wish of the immense majority of the American xiv PREFACE public, which has clearly pronounced in favor of a dictated peace. In New York, on the 10th of November, 4,000 socialists held a meeting at the Star Casino to protest against the occupation of German fortresses by the Allies {New York Tribune, November 11th, 1918). Even before the armistice had been signed, on November 8th, Lord Robert Cecil, British Under-Secretary of State, said: ''A genuine democratic German government assuredly would be accorded better peace terms." On November 11th, Doctor Solf, German Secretary for Foreign Affairs, begs President Wilson to persuade the Allies to "mitigate the fearful conditions of the armistice." However this may be, if these facts and this information can be known in three days, what will be the effect of events of the same sort which cannot fail to increase from now to the conclusion of peace ? It is certain that these results would have the effect of making the victory of the Allies ''evaporate" to a con- siderable extent. This will be better understood if we analyze the constituents of victory, understanding clearly what "virtual" victory means, and what are the conditions to transform it into "real" victory. PREFACE XV The reason which decided Germany to sign the armistice hes in the fact that the AUies, having ''virtually" mastered the right to pass through Austria-Hungary, could attack Germany on the south. Under these condi- tions, being no longer able to prevent a mili- tary defeat on her own soil, Germany had no interest in the continuance of the struggle. It is therefore a ''virtual" threat of the Allies that has brought about for them a victory which, before the realization of the armistice and of the conditions of peace, is also in a virtual state. The greater number of the Allies believe that the armistice signed by Germany, being a written acknowledgment of defeat accepted in her name, constitutes victory for the Allies; but this is not true. The armistice in itself is only one of the probabilities of victory, since it is worth no more than the application which is made of its terms and the force which the Allies can derive from this application in imposing conditions of peace which assure them a truly lasting and curative victory. It is of cardinal importance to remember that after four years of an extremely complex struggle, which has overturned Europe in a manner unprecedented in history, real victory will not result from the signature of a document^ XVI PREFACE or even from the recovery of territory once lost, like Alsace-Lorraine for France, but from a differ- ence in the whole situation of the victor by com- parison with that of the vanquished. Two contestants enter a contest, each with 100; when accounts are settled one is found to have 60, the other 80; the latter is clearly the winner. But what may possibly give rise to serious and even fatal mistakes is the fact that the difiference in the final state of the two antagonists in this war, resulting from the siun of various factors and from accounts long and very difficult to draw up, will show themselves only when months or even years have elapsed after the conclusion of peace. This is the reason why it is absolutely neces- sary to insure ourselves against any risk of error, by means of the most extreme caution in strictly applying the conditions of the armi- stice, and in definitely imposing conditions of peace which have been studied out with the greatest technical care. As an illustration, let us take the example of France to show the imperative nature of these necessities. The permanent character of the victory of France is unquestionably PREFACE xvu the very condition of the real and definitive victory of the AUies. It is certain, for instance, that if, twenty years after the conclusion of peace, France should succumb as a result of the remote consequences of the war, Germany would rule Europe. It would thus be shown that the AlHes would have been completely deceived in declaring, as many of them are doing at this moment, that they were certain of having brought off a final victory. France, being the pivot of the coalition which has just imposed conditions for an armistice on Germany, is consequently victorious; but for the present only in the virtual and con- ditional sense, even after the occupation of Alsace-Lorraine. Undoubtedly, it is in many respects a great advantage for France to re- gain her lost provinces. But, in the first place, France is only doing this after she has been deprived of them for forty-seven years, and, secondly, the advantage resulting from this restoration will only be a real one for France if the "peace conditions are such that she can keep Alsace-Lorraine permanently. On the signature of the armistice securing to France the occupation of the lost provinces France has not the certainty of being able to keep them permanently, because of the xviii PREFACE conditions brought about by the war, first, in their population, and, secondly, in their finances, conditions which at the moment of the signature of the armistice^ in spite of appear- ances, put France in a clearly unfavorable situation with respect to Germany. • Everything is a question of comparison. The Americans are 100 millions, and their war losses (about 55,000 dead and 180,000 wounded) are very rightly felt by them. But the harm done by the war to the French people assumes proportions infinitely more con- siderable. It is a tremendous fact which should be kept in mind by all those who wish to guarantee the immediate future of Europe and of peace that France has lost more men than Germany, not only in proportion to the population of the two countries but actually in absolute figures. As a matter of fact, Germany with its 68,- 000,000 inhabitants in 1914 has had 1,580,000 killed, while France with its scarcely 40,000,000 inhabitants has a total of dead which has not been oflficially published at the moment of this writing but which those who are semi-oflBcially informed know to be greater than the figures of German deaths just given. Besides, not to speak of the numberless PREFACE XIX wounded who may recover sooner or later, France has about one miUion cripples and in- valids, and one milHon and a half coming out of the war with serious and permanent forms of illness; say, 4 millions of the physically and morally best men of France destroyed or re- duced to the most serious incapacity. (If, in proportion to its population, the United States had had losses on the same scale as those of France, these losses would be about 10 millions of Americans). This is not all. At least 2 millions of French civilians have endured the Boche yoke for the space of four years, and the health of great numbers among them has been broken down by what they have undergone. Thousands of women and girls have been forced to bear the worst ineffaceable stain. The evil effects of the war on the popula- tion of France will be still more aggravated by the fact that the French birth-rate is a third less than that of Germany. It is, there- fore, certain that Germany will repair her losses in men much more quickly than France. This situation of the French population is so serious that it will make real and definitive vic- tory for France impossible, unless the conditions of peace imposed by the Allies shall bring about XX PREFACE in Europe such a condition that Germany shall not be able to profit by her superiority in num- bers by renewing her attacks on France, Let us now take up the economic inferiority in which France finds herself with respect to Germany at the moment of the signature of the armistice. War expenses have been very much heavier for France than for Germany. A French shell made with English coal and American steel is, of course, very much dearer than a German shell made with metal stolen from Briey and coal seized from the Belgians; and this is true not only of nearly all materials of war but also food, when we compare the expenses of the two countries during the war. The richest provinces of France have been devastated; they cannot be restored under a very long time, even if Germany pays the expenses. Germany, on the other hand, is in- tact, therefore in an infinitely more advan- tageous position to resume her activities after the peace. Any reparation for direct damage done which Germany makes to France, can only at the best put things back as they were before the war. But it must be distinctly under- stood that this reparation for direct damage PREFACE xxi leaves still existing the indirect damage which has been inflicted upon the whole of France by the war — indirect damage which is almost never spoken of, and which in the material field is infinitely greater than the direct damage done to the invaded French departments. This indirect material damage consists in the costs of the war to France — so great that only to pay the interest on the loans made and the pensions to the widows, orphans, and wounded, the taxes paid by the French, which were 1 bil- lion of dollars before the war, will be increased in a nearly permanent form to almost 3 billions of dollars. Thus, in spite of the optimistic as- sertions which I sometimes hear, I claim that in a country of which the population has been so thoroughly decimated as that of France, it would be practically impossible to make the people pay each year for a length of time three times as much in taxes as before the war. The word "reparation" only having been generally understood hitherto as applying to direct damages, we have as a result that, owing to the fact of the indirect material damages which the war has caused France, she finds herseK at the time of signing the armistice under a financial burden considerably heavier than that of Germany. xxii PREFACE These things lead us to the inevitable con- clusion that when the armistice was signed the losses of all kinds produced by the war were considerably greater for France, and it is therefore perfectly fair to say that the con- clusion of the armistice only assures a virtual victory to France. In fact, if the conditions of peace to be imposed on Germany do not radically abolish in some way the difference in mutual situation between France and Ger- many when the armistice was concluded, as far as actual losses of men and money are con- cerned, the superiority in the mutual position which will finally decide the real victory of France over Germany cannot be realized. In this case, in a very few years after the con- clusion of peace, France, to the surprise of all the world, would appear in a condition of real and irremediable defeat, after having been in a condition of virtual victory at the moment of the signature of the armistice. It is, therefore, plain that this signature and even the occupation of Alsace-Lorraine are by no means sufficient to secure the real and definitive victory to France. This can only be settled long after the conclusion of peace, provided first that the terms of the armistice are thoroughly applied, and afterward that the conditions of peace, carefully considered PREFACE xxiii in the interest of Europe and the whole world, assure to France material reparation exten- sive enough to compensate for the immense disadvantage from the point of view of in- debtedness and the state of population, as explained above, at which she stands with regard to Germany at the present time. * The whole German pacifist manoeuvre since the conclusion of the armistice has precisely in view the prevention of France and her Allies from accomplishing those results which are the conditions of real victory. This Boche manoeuvre in its essence consists in this: To profit by the words "republic" and "socialism," so that the Boche Social Democrats, who are nearly all tainted with the Pan-Germanist spirit and have vigorously supported the Kaiser for four years, may bring about by their connec- tion with the pacifist Socialists of the Allied countries, who know nothing of Germany and easily allow themselves to be taken in by phrases, that peace shall be negotiated with the greatest possible speed and concluded with the approval of the "Internationale." The success of this manoeuvre will secure for Ger- many the following results: 1st. Peace will be concluded very quickly XXIV PREFACE before an exhaustive study by the AlKes of the vast and difficult problems which the war has presented. 2d. The responsibility for the war being concentrated on Kaiserism, the German people for the sake of republican fraternity will only be forced to repair a small part of the damage they have caused. These two results will of themselves be suf- ficient to save Germany from defeat to-day, and to assure her of victory to-morrow, for they will leave the following consequences when but a few years have passed: The peace being merely a patched-up one, the anti-Pan-Germanist Slavic states, Bohemia, Jugo-Slavia, Roumania and Poland, will not be securely organized. The Germans will keep on with their intrigues among them all the more easily because they will have remained practically the masters of Russia, deprived of its middle class destroyed by the Bolshevists. France having to support the burden of the enormous excess of its war expenses in comparison with Germany would succumb financially. The French birth-rate, lower than that of Germany, and the French losses in men, greater than those of Germany, would each year after the war increase the relative weak- PREFACE XXV ness of France. Thus a state of things would be brought about which would enable the German people to accomplish that of which Maximilian Harden warned us nearly three years ago when he said: ''If it is felt in France that peace can be possible only through the restoration of Alsace- Lorraine, and if we are forced to sign such a peace, the 70 millions of Germans will soon destroy it." (See the Temps, February 9th, 1916). On the day when this attack is brought about by the conditions just explained, France — which has saved the world by giving England time to arm herself and the United States time to become convinced of the Pan-Germanist peril — will go down irretrievably in the midst of her glory. This is the result that the Germans are seek- ing, and that the Allies of France, morally and materially united, ought to prevent at any price. What I have said shows that we are at ^present really in this curious position: we may have to-day the appearance of victory and to-morrow the reality of defeat. To avoid the danger, however, it is enough to see the Boche manoeuvre clearly and not allow our- selves to be misled by ideologists. xxvi PREFACE It would be a terrible mistake to believe that a German republic will abandon all war- like ideas and wishes for revenge. Very prob- ably a German republic would be extremely military, particularly if the Allies were so foolish as not to deprive the Germans of the means to rebuild their forces; and in any case no precaution can be too great to avoid a repeti- tion of the war. I have explained in detail in this book (see page 70 and following) that one of the surest ways to prevent another war for the possession of Alsace-Lorraine would be to create in central Europe a barrier of free states, strongly anti-German, and as this would restrain Germany from fresh outbreaks in any direction, it should be brought about in the interest of the entire world. The essential object of the peace conference is to assure the reparation by the German people of the damages they have caused and to reconstruct Europe, but this reconstruction, to be durable, must be well done. In order that the new European machine which is to be built up from the parts of Pangermany should work smoothly under normal con- ditions, it should be very thoroughly put in PREFACE xxvii order by skilled mechanics, which is as much as to say that the rehabilitation of Europe demands the right solution of very numerous and difficult problems which require precise information on ethnography, national psy- chology, and practical political economy. Such information was certainly not possessed by many leaders in the Entente when the armi- stice was signed. The proof is this: It was only at the end of the fourth year of the war that the Entente understood the importance to the world of the Czecho-Slovak people, which for twenty-five years at least the Germans had considered as one of the greatest obstacles in the way of the Pangerman plan. It is only at the end of 1918 that Czecho-Slovaks were recognized by the AUies as an independent people. When the armistice was concluded the Roumanians and the Jugo-Slavs had not yet been recognized by the Entente with any- thing like the same formahty as in the case of the Czecho-Slovaks, though the creation of Greater Roumania and of a strong Jugo- slav state is just as necessary to the founda- tion of peace as the independence of Bohemia. I will not speak of a crowd of other questions raised by the war, particularly those relating xxviii PREFACE to finance, which are of immense importance, and have only been touched by the AUies in the most superficial way. Thus, the vital fact that the indirect damages made by Ger- man aggression in France are far larger than the direct damages, and like them call for reparation, has not yet been clearly brought out. It is under such circumstances that as I write these lines there is talk of an extremely early meeting of the peace conference, with the aim of deciding all these questions on which for many years the fate of nations will de- pend. I hold it as my solemn duty, in no way to be set aside, to declare openly that if the peace congress meets without taking the time needed to obtain in Central Europe informations which are now still lacking, fatal mistakes will inevi- tably result, and causes sure to provoke future conflicts will remain, which will soon bring forth their evil fruit. One cannot all at once "patch up" a peace and reconstitute Europe on a firm basis; the thing cannot be done. If the Germans are making the greatest effort to bring the peace conference together at the earliest possible moment it is because PREFACE XXIX they are well aware that the AUies lack in- formation, and hope to gain great advantage thereby. Public opinion would do well to protest at once against the hasty conclusion of the peace conference. The Allied people have spent their blood and their gold like water, and it is their right and their duty to insist that the fruit of so many sacrifices shall not be spoiled by unnecessary haste. In order to show the absolute need of avoid- ing a precipitate decision, I have in this book taken examples drawn from the war, chosen in such a way as also to enlighten my readers on the great events which have just passed with such extraordinary rapidity that their vast import is not easy to grasp. Chapter I reminds us how the Germans must have constantly deceived us, from the beginning of the war; for instance, by making us think that they were starving long before this famine had become a reality, which hap- pened in September-October, 1918, when re- volts in Austria-Hungary and the Allied occu- pation of the Danube cut communications between Germany and the East. XXX PREFACE This general survey of German methods of deceit shows us with what distrust we ought to receive their promises and transformations during the armistice. Aheady, it is easy to detect that these transformations are to a great extent camouflage. In Chapter II, I show under what terribly dangerous conditions the Germans made ready for the armistice trick, which would have per- haps succeeded if the great success of the Allies in the Balkans, and the insurrection of op- pressed peoples in Austria-Hungary, had not — in October, 1918 — abruptly changed the gen- eral situation in favor of the Allies. Chapter III makes clear that it was not owing to diplomatic discussions but to mili- tary actions and Slavic insurrections in Sep- tember-October, 1918 (the downfall of Bul- garia and of Austria-Hungary), which drove Germany to conclude an armistice on terms dictated by the Allies. Chapter III also shows that on the solution in favor of the Allies of the effectives problem depended the events of October, 1918, in central Europe, for up to that time the superiority in man-power was on the side of Pangermany. The same chapter contains an exhaustive PREFACE xxxi description of the errors, which in my opinion are made by the AUies, even at the present moment, as to German man-power. The deduction is that if the Alhes can really be wrong on a subject vitally important, it is certain that they lack indispensable informa- tion as to numbers of other questions, on the proper answers to which depends a firm and enduring peace. In the same chapter, I have studied the sources of military effectives which could pos- sibly be utilized in Russia by the German Republicans ( ! ) coquetting with the Russian Bolshevists. This shows that the Allies should cut Germany entirely off from Russia by a series of states organized as strongly as pos- sible: Poland, Bohemia, a democratic Magyar state. Greater Roumania, and Jugo-Slavia. Chapter IV describes the centres of imperial- ism which led to the formation and establish- ment of Pangermany, and shows with what care and in what manner the Allies should destroy these hotbeds to avert any renewal of the war. Finally, the Conclusions present conditions on the observance of which public opinion should insist in order to guard against the xxxii PREFACE dangers of the armistice period, and thus ar- rive at a well-founded peace, at an enduring and complete victory. New York, November 25, 1918. TABLE OF CONTENTS PUSTACX - . - w - . . , tAM T CHAPTER L How TRX Gbrmaks Deckxvs Alueo FtTBLic Ofdt- lOK - I. The danger of a complacent optimism, and of the poisoning of Allied public opinion through biassed news coming from neutral nations, but of Boche origin. n. The results of a systematic poisoning of Allied opinion by the Germans, and the consequent danger. ni. The German high command directs pacifist of- fensives started from Berlin. CHAPTER n. How THE Germans, if Thet Secure ak Armistice, CouKT UPON Carrying off the Victory as a Con- sequence OF THE Economic Condition Created in Europe bt Four Years of War - - • - 51 I. Germany's war profits form the chief basis of the pacifist mancBUvres. xzxiii xxxiv TABLE OF CONTENTS n. The fact that the circulation of paper currency in Germany is largely measured by the produce of her gigantic thefts, while, on the other hand, that of the Allies depends on their complete vic- tory, constitutes the second base of German schemes, in. If circumstances make it feasible, the Alsace-Lor- raine trick will be tried in order to enter on the practical realization of German plans by divid- ing the Allies, and leading France to "peace talk" before a complete victory. rV. Why the Germans believe that, if the Allies are led into "peace talk" before achieving a full grasp of the European situation which assures their victory, their financial ruin will ensue. This without more great battles would be enough to bring about the final success of Germany. CHAPTER m. PAGE Pangermant's Probable Military Strength, and Its Weakness at the Outset of the Fifth Year OF War - - . - - ... - 88 I. The annual military contingent of Germany. n. Approximate strength of German mobilized forces in August, 1918. m. Critical discussion of the figures found to represent the man-power of Germany. rV. The probable total forces of Pangermaiiy in Au- • gust, 1918. V. How new sources of effectives could have been used to offset the American numbers, if the Al- "'-■ lies had not acted in the Balkans and time hajd v been left to the Germans. TABLE OF CONTENTS xxxv VI. How it is the successes of the Allies in the Balkans that secure the superiority in man-power to the Entente. VII. The teachings of the recent past and of the present prove the immense power of political strategy, and that for the Allies the Danube- Central Europe front exerts a decisive influence on the issue of the war. CHAPTER IV. PAGE Why the Allies of Germany Have Thought It Was to Their Interest to Act With Her - - 181 I. Why Turkey went with Germany. II. The advantages which the Bulgarians thought to gain by siding with Berlin. in. Reasons for which Austria-Hungary is unavoid- ably an indispensable base for Pangerman im- perialism. rV. The five centres of imperialism must be de- stroyed. Conclusions -------- 217 MAPS AND FACSIMILES PAQE Ce que serait rAlIemagne agrandie de rAutriche (fac- simile of a map published ip 1901) ... viii Pan-Germany at the end of 1917 - - - - - ix Map of the war or Pan-Germani^» August, 1918 - 14, 15 German offensive and counter offensive of the Allies, April, 1918, to August 6, 1918 - - - - 29 Alsace-Lorraine and Central Pan-Germany ... 75 Facsimiles of pamphlet published in 1914 - - 116, 117 New sources of possible effectives for the Germans - - 154 The great nationalities in Turkey . . . ^ . 189 The encroachments of the planned Bulgarian hegemony upon the neighboring states - - - - - 194 The three parts of Austria-Hungary ... - 202 The nationalities in Bosnia-Herzegovina ... 204 The nationalities in Austria ...... 206 The nationalities in Hungary ...... 207 The five centres of Imperialism in Pan-Germany - - 216 The Europe of the Peace - 234 CHAPTER I. HOW THE GEBMANS DECEIVE ALLIED PUBLIC OPINION, I. The danger of a complacent optimism, and of the poisoning of Allied public opinion through biassed news coming from neutral nations, but of Boche origin. n. The results of a systematic poisoning of Allied opinion by the Germans, and the consequent danger. in. The German high command directs pacifist offensives started from Berlin. It is my conviction that Allied public opinion is constantly manipulated by the Germans, who thus shape it in a manner favorable to their plans, I know that this statement will seem surprising; it is never- theless true, as I hope to show. Few are aware of a fact of tremendous im- portance: from the outset of the war, the government of Berlin has exerted a constant pressure on the Allies in Europe through a part of their own press. The fact that the war was a surprise to the Allies proves that they had previously no direct and trustworthy 2 AN ENDURING VICTORY information as to the Central Powers and the Balkans. In the course of the war, the same lack of information has been amply proved by the Entente's mistakes in policy, mistakes now understood and bitterly regretted. On the other hand, for the first three years of the struggle many in France and England allowed themselves to be complacently optimistic. Numbers of good people, seeing the huge En- tente coalition, felt sure of a speedy triumph. Naturally this systematic optimism caused many among the Alhes to accept any favor- able reports as true. The Germans with their usual cleverness have employed a very simple method to turn these circumstances to their own advantage. In neutral papers, partic- ularly those of Switzerland and Holland, they constantly published and continue to publish short extracts from German newspapers, or despatches, ten or fifteen Unes long, as to the state of aCFairs in the German Empire, and from the beginning of the war, the Entente newspapers of Europe have made use of these extracts and statements to supply the lack of exact information about the enemy. The greater part of the news from Turkey, Bul- garia, Austria-Hungary, before their collapse, and Germany appearing in Allied papers has HOW THE GERMANS DECEIVE 3 been dated from Zurich, Berne, or Amster- dam. The German Government has kept its own press, as well as that of the Allies, under the strictest observation, and every stranger passing through Pangerman territory has been closely watched; how, then, was it possible that information from such sources could be true? I have made a study for twenty-five years of the states which have made up Pan- germany, and being thus in a position to judge of the worth of these reports, I can state positively that, during the first four years of the war, eight out of ten of these items were false, and made in Berlin. This biassed information has been arranged with great ingenuity; it has taken a variety of forms, and contained just enough falsehood to be useful to the Boche cause. Allied news- papers and correspondents in Switzerland and Holland were frequently taken in, and reprinted this so-called information. The great number of these reprints caused the danger, which has been most serious, for since the beginning of the war, Germany has succeeded in using them at any given moment to foster the state of mind among the Allies necessary to the success of any serious military operation. For example: No one now doubts that the junction with 4 AN ENDURING VICTORY Turkey and Bulgaria was of vital importance to Germany. Austria-Germany must have yielded long ago without the help of the Bulgar-Turks and their eastern resources. It was therefore necessary to crush Serbia at any cost, as a condition of this eastern alliance. From the early part of 1915, the psycholog- ical foundations for this enterprise were laid by means of the German papers, all docilely following instructions from the General Staff in. Berlin, and dwelling on the idea that "the decision must come on the west front, which is all-important, and where alone we must look for it." Many organs of the western Allies, being converted to this theory of the principal front, which, in fact, allowed Germany to take pos- session of three-fourths of Europe, have found in these Boche statements arguments in sup- port of their ideas, and have reprinted them with a readiness which must have been de- lightful to Berlin, for at this time the General Staff dreaded above everything to see the Anglo-French send even 150,000 men to the Danube. These with the 350,000 Serbians and 700,000 Roumanians, would have made up a force of 1,200,000 men, amply suflScient to have kept Austria-Germany from seizing HOW THE GERMANS DECEIVE 5 the granary of the east, to keep open through Roumania communication with the Russians^ who were still in Austria, in eastern Galicia^ and to prevent the entrance of Bulgaria and Turkey into the war, the Balkan campaigns having stripped them of munitions. In addition the government of Constan- tinople as soon as it saw itseK deprived of the possibility of German help, by the estabhsh- ment of a firm Allied front on the Danube, would have been shortly forced to reopen the Turkish straits. The interest of the Germans in the destruc- tion of Serbia was therefore absolutely vital. Their propaganda having helped to prevent France and England from understanding the extraordinary importance of the Danube front at the beginning of 1915, in October of that year, they began the invasion. At that time, most men at the head of west- ern affairs thought the east could have no decisive influence on the fate of the war. There was, nevertheless, a party in France which wished to send a strong expedition from Salonika to the help of Serbia, with the ob- ject of sharply opposing the junction of Ger- many and the east. At the end of 1915, it was, therefore, much to the interest of Berlin 6 AN ENDURING VICTORY to persuade the Franco-English that there was nothing to be gained by reinforcing Ser- bia. As a part of Allied opinion was opposed to the Balkan expedition, this was pressed into the service of the German plans by means of a great number of despatches which ap- peared in the Dutch and Swiss papers, copied in a simple-minded way by the French and EngUsh press. These despatches stated that railroad communications were already re- opened between Hungary and Bulgaria, via Serbia. A comparison of the date of these first despatches as they appeared in the En- tente press with the truth afterward published, as to the re-establishment of normal communi- cation by rail between the Central Empires and Bulgaria shows a diflFerence of about six weeks. Now these reports, though nominally from neutral sources, came really from Ger- many, and as they anticipated events they resulted in encouraging those in France and England who opposed the Salonika expedition. Their argument had a specious appearance of truthfulness. They said: *'Let us not strip our most important front, for it is too late; we have lost our chance in the Balkans; rail- road communications are already reopened between Hungary and Bulgaria." This was HOW THE GERMANS DECEIVE 7 enough to satisfy Berlin, and this one false idea disseminated by German propaganda had incalculable consequences, and for a long time sufficed to turn the current of the war into channels desired by Germany. If the numerous despatches from Boche sources had not misled Franco-English opin- ion, and if Serbia had been promptly rein- forced at the end of 1915 when Roumania could have come in with great eflFect while Russia was still fighting bravely, and the Slavs and Latins of Austria-Hungary were ready for revolt, the known facts show that the Anglo- French could have saved the Balkan situation to a great extent, and could have prevented the economic and military reorganization of Turkey and Bulgaria by the Germans. With- out this eastern alliance, Austria-Germany would long since have become unable to hold out against the coalition as is proved by the terrible blow given to Austria-Germany by the Allied victory over Bulgaria. These consid- erations bring home to us the deep injury done to the Allied cause by the newspaper propa- ganda of biassed news. Many similar instances could be cited; in fact, each important German campaign has been aided by this inspired information coming g AN ENDURING VICTORY through Holland and Switzerland, which is then reprinted by a part of the Allied Euro- pean papers with a creduhty hard to under- stand. This has happened so often that I believe there is a department in the General Staff at Berlin which might be called "Bureau for the manufacture of blunders to be made by the Allies." In this bureau are elaborated biassed news despatches which, when finished, are sent out through the neutral press. To show how far it is possible to go in this direction with the Allied newspapers in Eu- rope, this BerHn office feels its way by pub- lishing news as absurd as it is false. Thus, about two years ago almost the whole Allied European press copied a neutral despatch asserting that William II was dying of cancer. Recently many of our papers have informed us that Hindenburg had died of an apoplectic attack brought on by a violent quarrel with the Emperor; this also purported to be a neu- tral rumor. If news of this caliber is believed one can understand how ready are many AUied papers to reprint less sensational reports, but some of these are even more dangerous; as witness the repeated rumors which have led the Allies to believe that overtures for a sepa- HOW THE GERMANS DECEIVE rate peace had come from Austria-Hungary, Bulgaria, or Turkey, or that a coolness had arisen between these countries and Berlin. The facts have proved, however, that only Bulgaria has tried seriously to negotiate sepa- rately, and even this only recently. In fact, the Germans hoodwinked the Allies just as at a Spanish bull-fight the matador distracts the attention of the bull so as to take him at a disadvantage. The bull is ten tiraes as strong as the man, and can soon make an end of him by a direct charge. But, as we know, red is particularly obnoxious to the bull, and that is why the matador flourishes a short red cloak. The enraged animal can see nothing else, and as he makes his furious charge his enemy's long sword is plunged into his withers. The Germans play this identical game witla the Allies. They know that our united strength is greater than theirs, and that they would be quickly beaten if we hit them in the right place. To avoid this they distract oiir attentioh froni the weak points of Pan- germany by niisleading despatches^ which af^ feet us as the matador's red cloak acts on the bull. Our complacent optimism inclines us to 10 AN ENDURING VICTORY believe this manufactured German news; our minds have been perverted by it, so that we see things as we wish and not as they are. This explains how, only a few weeks after the war began, the Allied pubUc in Europe firmly be- lieved that the shortage of foodstuflFs in Ger- many would soon cause her to yield, that sup- plies for her munitions were lacking, that the Socialists would force a peace on the Berlin government, that their reserves were nearly exhausted, that each German oflFensive was the last, the sign of the desperation of a people longing for peace, etc. Now, after four years, results have shown the emptiness of these conclusions, but as they have constantly been repeated for so long a time, in spite of themselves the Allies think about Germany much as Berlin would have them, and this on many important points. This state of mind favors the unprecedented eflForts that the Germans make to secure an armistice before Germany itself should be completely invaded. Of course, it is pleasant to find news in the paper which leads one to think that the war will soon be over; but war is not a pleasant thing; it is a grim necessity, which must be ended as soon as possible by a decisive vie- HOW THE GERMANS DECEIVE 11 tory. Pleasant tidings when they are untrue greatly prolong the war, and cause the death of great numbers of brave men; this encour- aging information, when inexact, may have the most sinister consequences. It is largely because much of our Alhed press has imbibed false news, that the Entente with its large forces and resources of all kinds has not brought them to bear where they would have won a decision in the quickest and easiest way. For this reason, we are confronted with the remarkable fact that there are 68 millions of Germans, 50 millions subjects of Austria- Hungary (inadequately prepared from the military standpoint, and of whom 28 millions at least are thoroughly anti-German), 5 mil- lions of Bulgarians, and 20 millions of Turks lacking proper armament on account of the Balkan Wars, and of whom at least 14 millions wished to keep out of this struggle — altogether a total of 143 million inhabitants of the Central Empires, who have been able for four years to conquer or withstand 370 millions of Allies (France has 40 millions, England 46 millions, Italy 36 millions, Serbia 5, Roumania 8, Japan 53, and Russia 182 millions). (These figures do not include the large colonies, which have rendered such valuable assistance to the Allies.) U AN ENDURING VICTORY This situation has made indispensable the entry of 100 millions of Americans into the war. II. The systematic dissemination of biassed news among the Allies combines with the in- jBuence of the pacifists and Bolchevist groups that exist in all the Entente countries who play the German game — unintentionally per- haps, but that matters little. A considerable part of Allied public opinion is so poisoned and distorted by this double influence that it forms wrong views on essential points, on points where a right understanding is vitally neces- sary. For example, the action especially of England and America as to the war was de- cided by their indignation at Germany's viola- tion of the treaties guaranteeing the neutrality of Belgium, and of international laws as to marine warfare. There can be no doubt that when Germany cynically broke her word, it so shocked Great Britain and the United States that they were convinced of the necessity of the great sacrifices of men and money de- manded of them. Since these great countries entered the war, Germany has broken every law, human and HOW THE GERMANS DECEIVE 13 divine, in a way never before known in history. She tortures prisoners, kills the wounded, and torpedoes hospital-ships; her soldiers resort to the most treacherous tricks; the German authorities sent to Bucharest tubes filled with bacilli to spread infectious diseases. In the countries they occupy, they have killed thou- sands of civilians, including women and chil- dren. They stirred up the Turks to murder more than a million of Armenians, and hun- dreds of thousands of Greeks. On the very morrow of its signature, the government of Beriin had violated the treaty of Brest-Litovsk, which it had itself dictated. It is clear now, therefore, that no right-thinking man can ever again trust in the German word. It would indeed be insane to do so. In spite of these self-evident facts, corroborated by common sense and the war map, there is actually a large number of people among the Allies wil- ling to accept the idea of a negotiated peace, which would put an end to hostilities by a treaty in which Germany would pledge her- self to restitution and future good conduct. The war into which many of the Allies were led by their horror at the German violation of a "scrap of paper" would thus, in spite of their unheard-of sacrifices in men and money, 14 AN ENDURING VICTORY HOW THE GERMANS DECEIVE 15 16 AN ENDURING VICTORY be ended for these same Allies by another "scrap of paper" ! If those among the Allies who admit this eventuality showed similar signs of mental aberration in their private af- fairs, would they not soon be put in a lunatic asylum? But there are other reasons which show yet more strongly how little the real bases of victory and lasting peace are understood in Entente countries, even among the most en- lightened. A great proportion of the Allies think the war will end by a peace conference around the green table, between our represen- tatives and those of the Central Powers. A glance at the war map (see Pangermany in August^ 1918, page 14) will prove that this is practically impossible. The choice is clear. If the Allies open negotiations with Germany without having destroyed competely her grip on Central Europe — the key of the world — which implies the dismemberment of Austria- Hungary, the German hegemony will con- tinue; their position will be so weak that these negotiations can only end, as did the pseudo- negotiations at Brest-Litovsk, in complete de- ception followed by the most irremediable of catastrophes. But if the Allies, after having materially destroyed the German hold on HOW THE GERMANS DECEIVE 17 Central Europe — which is quite possible if, thanks to extended air transport, they supply the necessary means of action to the oppressed peoples of that region — Czecho-SIovaks, Jugo- slavs, and Roumanians and in reinforcing with them the AUied army of the Balkans — if they are willing after such frightful sacrifices to discuss peace on equal terms with Germany in a conference, instead of purely and simply dictating their just conditions as victorious soldiers, conscious of the right, it will then be clear that the Allies are completely ignorant of German psychology, and a peace will be made which will allow Prussian militarism to continue to exist, and later to begin it all over again. Under the influence of constant Boche- inspired though pretended-neutral despatches, many among us think that Germany is ruined by the war; but the truth is that she is run- ning over with wealth of every kind stolen from three-fourths of Europe, as I shall show in Chapter II. This German news has also convinced large numbers that the Teutons can be starved into submission, but such is not the fact. Everything is comparative in war. From the standpoint of food-supply, we need only 18 AN ENDURING VICTORY ask if conditions in the Central Empires were better or worse than with us. Let us look into the situation as it was up to October, 1918, that is up to the collapse of Bulgaria. The German people, undoubtedly, suffered a serious lack in foodstuffs, but much of this suffering came from the severe but far-sighted prudence of the Prussian administration, which imposed strict regulations in order to hold out longer against the Allies. The German dif- ficulties were less in production than in trans- portation, owing to the lack of means of communication between Germany and the East. These difficulties of transport, how- ever, diminished with time by the construc- tion of new lines of railroad, which were being rapidly built, especially since Germany con- trolled the whole course of the Danube, which running from southern Germany to the Black Sea, north of the Roumanian Dobrudja, furnished easy transport for Serbia, Bulgaria, Roumania, and the vast regions belonging to Turkey and Russia, bordering on the Black Sea. For these reasons, though Germans may have suffered sharply from insufficient food, they could not be starved out. There was no famine in the Central Empires except in Slav or Latin districts, where Teutonic cruelty HOW THE GERMANS DECEIVE 19 used this hideous method to slowly destroy a hated people. It was stated that Germany was more in need of food than the Allies, but how could this be? When you study the war map (page 14), you realize that England, France, and Italy were forced to supply them- selves from Australia and America at ruin- ously high rates, owing to the increased freight charges due to submarine warfare. On the other hand, Germany had easy access to all the granaries of Europe; Hungary, Roumania, the Balkans, Asia Minor, southern Russia were all free to her, and she could plun- der them as she pleased. She stole everything she needed, over immense territories. She has 50 millions of slaves. Allied subjects, who raise her crops without wages, and Christian pop- ulations in Turkey were forced to intensive cultivation for her in Asia Minor. Even be- hind the German lines in the west the unlucky Belgians and French, with their beasts of bur- den, work for the Teutons. They even had to keep a strict account of the eggs, most of which were reserved for the Germans. All over the wide Pangermanist territory production was carefully supervised. Under these circum- stances, how could Germany be starved into peace before France, England, or Italy .^ But 20 AN ENDURING VICTORY if the Allies wish it, famine can become a reality in Austria-Germany, Now that the Allies are masters of the Danube, the revictualling of Austria-Germany is at once imperilled. The aim of Berlin's biassed news has been to conceal the great extent of the German gains in the east, and to concentrate the attention of the Allies on the western front, so that they may not view the European situation as a whole. This aim has been easily reached, especially since the Allies lost their hold on the east, enabling Germany to bring all her available force to bear on the western front, where by force of circumstances all large mili- tary operations are now taking place. As we now no longer had the entire European war map in view (page 14) a large section of Allied public opinion was apt to give undue impor- tance to actions in the west, though these could not bring about a final decision and real and complete victory, while the surrender of Bulgaria has proved by its consequences the immense importance of the Balkan effort. I will cite, by way of illustration, the effect on the Allied public of the loss and recapture of a part of the salient between Rheims and Soissons. On the 27th of May, 1918, as a result of HOW THE GERMANS DECEIVE 21 the surprise at the Chemin-des-Dames, the Teutons succeeded in forming a good-sized salient between these points. A week later, they advanced to Chateau-Thierry; less than 80 kilometres from Paris, which was there- fore threatened with severe bombardment in case of further advance. However, since the 15th of July, General Foch has so ably handled his forces that, assisted by American reinforce- ments, they regained up to the 30th of July a part of the salient, showing a dash and courage beyond all praise. Laying aside other great Entente successes which have since occurred, I select the 30th of July for my illustration. The Germans were then forced to retire from Chateau-Thierry to Fere-en-Tardenois, a dis- tance of about 20 kilometres. What did a part of the Allied press at once say.^ It de- clared that Germany had suflFered a decisive defeat, which would open the eyes of her people, and deal a terrible blow at Prussian militarism, etc. Observe that this sort of thing was encouraged even on the 30th of July by the Boches, who have a deep interest in making the Allies count on victory before it is within their grasp. It is easy to see why, for Germany wants to "discuss" peace terms while she holds firmly to the territory she has occupied. 22 AN ENDURING VICTORY and means to keep. She has, therefore, the strongest reasons to wish to persuade the AUies that their successes are great enough to justify peace talk. The London Daily Express, followed by sev- eral other Allied papers, published a despatch dated Geneva, July 30th, 1918: *'Za Suisse states that a high neutral official, who has just arrived at Basle from Berlin, declares that in spite of all German precau- tions to hide the defeat in the west, the truth has penetrated among the masses. "Such great moral depression has not been seen before during the war, which it is now considered is lost whenever Foch chooses his hour to strike. . . . "The German losses during the last three months reach nearly a million. The losses in the last two oflfensives amounted to 350,000 and these have completely disorganized the plans of the high command." Let us consider these despatches and com- ments coming from this mysterious neutral, but one so well informed that on the 30th of July he knew the exact amount of the Ger- man losses for some weeks previously, though the BerHn General Staff is not usually very communicative on such points. HOW THE GERMANS DECEIVE 23 Let us examine what had taken place when this despatch was dated, without considering the great retirements of the Germans, which have taken place since, yielding to military pressure and, perhaps, also because of the political strategy spoken of in Chapter II. As I desire especially to emphasize, I am simply proposing by choosing a precise and limited example to show the necessity, if the Allies would arrive at a true victory, of under- standing the importance of military events by distinguishing carefully between their local significance and the influence which they may have upon the European war-field considered as a whole, which is quite a different thing. Can it be denied that the operations en- gaged in by the Allies south of the Soissons- Rheims sahent after July 15, were chiefly in- tended to cover Paris, and prevent a bom- bardment? This local object was completely attained on the 30th. The operation was skil- fully conducted by General Foch, and all the Allies did wonders, including the American "boys," who proved themselves extraordinarily fine, working well with the other troops, while their spirit and freshness were of incalculable service in putting new life into soldiers, who had stood the strain of four years of terrible 24 AN ENDURING VICTORY struggle. The success of the operation was due mainly to these American reinforcements, and it is the plain truth to say that America saved Paris, the heart of France, of which the Germans thought themselves sure. They also believed they were about to end the war by a brilliant and decisive victory. The de- feat inflicted by the Allies has crushed this hope. The vast majority of Germans wished to ruin France completely, and it is certain that it was with disappointed rage that they accepted their defeat and deception, and found themselves obliged to continue the war with modified plans. Our successes dating from July 30th were a great encouragement, and we were fully en- titled to our joy in them; they were still in- creasing and showed much improvement in the conduct of the war. The unity of command with the help from America have proved their value and given rise to the highest hopes which have since been entirely justified. Such events naturally make us optimistic, and optimism is necessary to victory, and should be cultivated whenever it is justified by facts resting upon a solid basis. This appears to be a fair estimate of our recapture of part of the Soissons-Rheims sa- HOW THE GERMANS DECEIVE 25 lient on July 30th, viewed from the local stand- point. But in order to show how overcon- fidence can imperil the real victory of the Allies, and to demonstrate the biassed char- acter of the news from the Swiss source quoted above, let us see how the situation on July 30th, 1918, eliminating, I repeat, all subse- quent events, could aflFect the evolution of the war, considered in its whole European aspect. The whole mihtary situation on the 30th of July is seen at a glance on the map (page 14). Germany was mistress of three-fourths of Europe, in control of large sections of Rus- sia and Asia Minor, while the Allies, pent up in the west, could only feed themselves through maritime communications, lengthy and dif- ficult in the extreme. At Chateau-Thierry, the Germans were 80 kilometres from Paris, and when they fell back 20 kilometres on July 30th, they were still only 100 kilometres from the heart of France. Our mysterious neutral assures us that German opinion inter- preted this retreat as implying the loss of the war to Germany. I am convinced that such an opinion, voluntarily accepted at this date by many of the Allies, would be highly prej- udicial to a real and complete victory by pro- ducing dangerous delusions. I think I know 26 AN ENDURING VICTORY the Germans and the methods of their Gen- eral Staff well enough to be sure that the opinion attributed to the German people at large, on the 30th of July, cannot be the true one. No doubt it enraged them to be balked when Paris and the end seemed near; but it is a far cry from that to the belief that a re- tirement of 20 kilometres at that date meant the loss of the war. Besides, we may be sure that the German people knew only part of the truth. Another despatch from Zurich in the New York Evening Worlds August 12th, says: "A neutral banker just returned from Ger- many was interviewed here to-day. 'Events on the French front depress the educated Ger- mans, but the masses are ignorant of the real situation,' he said." This flatly contradicts the former despatch above, and may be regarded as true because it is much more probable. The Berlin General Staff, by means of absolute authority, exerted over the German press, could easily make the people believe that the retirement of 20 kilo- metres from Chateau-Thierry was a check, not a serious defeat. Even at that time public confidence was maintained by sight of the war map, showing the immense territories held HOW THE GERMANS DECEIVE 27 by the Germans, and their enormous gains in consequence; while on such a map a retire- ment of 20 kilometres looks insignificant. It is ridiculous, therefore, to believe that the German people thought the war to be lost on the 30th of July. But common sense shows still better that it could not have been so. Let us suppose that the Allies had first advanced and then retired just as the Germans did, and imagine ourselves liberators of the people enslaved by Teutonic ambition with three-fourths of Europe in our power, Germany surrounded geographically, and the Allied army within 80 kilometres of Berlin. Suppose then the Germans bringing up their reserves and making a great effort, admirably carried out. They would push back the Allies from a distance of 20 kilometres to one of a hundred from Berlin. Would the Allies after such a blow believe that the war was lost ? Certainly not. Then, knowing the tenacity of the Germans, why should they think themselves vanquished be- cause they were forced back 20 kilometres on the 30th of July.? Looking at the argument from another angle, the annexed map shows the French military front before the great German of- 28 AN ENDURING VICTORY fensive which began seriously in April, 1918, the extreme Hmits reached by this oflensive, and the ground retaken by the AUies by Au- gust 3d, as against that gained by the Ger- mans. At the end of March, before the offen- sive, we did not consider ourselves victorious, though it was then the general opinion that the Germans could not advance much on the western front. They did, however, gain con- siderable ground in three directions: toward Armentieres, toward Amiens, and as far as Chateau-Thierry. By the 3d of July, we had retaken nearly a fourth of the ground lost since April, as may be seen on the map. Look- ing at the whole European theatre of war under these circumstances, how could we call our- selves more victorious then than we did be- fore the German offensive, when they had less of our territory than on August 3d.'^ It may be said, because the Germans lost enormously in men and material during their retreat. Let us look into this question. True, their losses were so great as first to bring their offensive to a stand and then to force them to fall back. But can we seriously believe that our own losses from April to the end of July were not practically equal to those of the Ger- HOW THE GERMANS DECEIVE 29 GERMAN OFFENSIVE AND COUNTER OFFENSIVE OF THE ALLIES, APRIL 1918 TO AUGUST 6, 1918. TWERP ■■•«•«■ Fnot in April, 1918, before the great German offennve aaaiai* fotieme limit leached by the great offensive in the middle of July, 1918 m i 1 1 1 1 111 Reborn «vuaat«d by the Germans as a result of the eomiter-offeosive of the Allie* Ttie dbtiM inlietttd In order of the respective «itlidnw*b »nt (l) The Msrne (rant be* hnr the Veiie: ($) tbr Albeit ttgioa: O) north «t MaatdMicr; vid U) Q«rtb of U Btuec 30 AN ENDURING VICTORY mans? While their rapid advance lasted up until the end of July, they took from us many guns, prisoners, and ammunition. In our own counter-oflFensive, we have done likewise. In order to compare the losses on both sides fairly, we must not look at a short period, but at the whole operation. We shall have to reck- on up our losses from April to July 15th, and those we inflicted on the Germans when we retook the ground previously given up. Now, by the 3d of August, we have taken back a fourth of the ground occupied by the Germans since April. Have we caused them greater losses than we ourselves have suffered ? It is possible of course, but improbable, and no reports published seem to confirm it. In military operations, when both sides are act- ing under nearly the same conditions, the losses in men and material are about equal, unless in cases where one army is completely demoralized, while the other remains intact. If the Allies exert all the power they possess throughout Europe, this demoraUzation will surely come for the German army. The sur- render of Bulgaria hastens considerably the moment, but all I wish to prove is that on August 3d, we had no good reason to believe that the German losses had been much greater HOW THE GERMANS DECEIVE 31 than our own, reckoning from the beginning of their offensive in April, 1918. On the matter of losses and also on other questions, just after they took Chateau-Thierry on the 4th of June, the Frankfort Gazette, pub- lished the following article, which suggests some interesting comments: "Whenever our armies start a new offensive, the enemy press ascribes some distant objec- tive to our high command. In this manner, when our front becomes stabihzed before these supposed aims are reached, they can say the operation has failed. When we attack in Flan- ders, they say our object is Calais. Now that we are marching on the Marne, they accuse us of trying for Paris. ''Neither Hindenburg nor Ludendorff wage a geographical war; their aim is always to weaken and finally to destroy the enemy's army. They acted on this principle in the east, and apply it now on the western front. They choose a sector and make a surprise at- tack, supported by superior numbers, and push forward until the enemy's reserves come up and restore the balance. During our at- tack the enemy losses are the greater, but from this on they tend to be equal. It is, there- fore, useless to pursue the action, and our 32 AN ENDURING VICTORY positions become fixed, while we take measures to deal another blow where our complete prep- arations or superiority in numbers promise a fresh victory at little cost. "We have often dealt in this way with our enemies, and will do so again. The great battle lasted seven days, and during that time the enemy brought his reserves from the Channel and the Vosges, stripping sectors where we shall attack the next time, and where we shall gain another success like that just ended." These lines, like most German publications intended to impress opinion at home, con- tain some truth and some falsehood. As I have frequently explained, large operations of the German General Staff are planned to reach a maximum result, if luck is on their side, and at worst a minimum. To hide their disap- pointments the Germans lie when they say they were not trying to reach Paris or the Channel. When they attacked in Flanders and toward Amiens, they meant if they had the chance to push through to the sea, their maximum objective in this case. In the same way, they moved on Chateau-Thierry with the ultimate hope of seizing Paris. They could not reach these farthest points, but when we look at the map (page 29), must we not admit HOW THE GERMANS DECEIVE 33 that they did accomplish an important part of the minimum results implied in the article from the Frankfort Gazette? The German offensive from April to August 3d, of this year has not been strong enough to keep all the ground gained; but up to that date it held most of it. Even if the Germans were forced to yield all the territory won by them since April, unless they meet with an absolutely crushing defeat, their offensive, looked at as a whole, must have brought them important gains, if we try to look at the war from the point of view of the enemy, as we must if we wish to draw the right conclusions from the course of events. In the first place, the Teuton offensive has forced the Allies to strike back at fixed points, instead of leaving them free to attack when and where they choose. Again, in his advance the enemy has dev- astated large districts, at the cost of mil- liards to France, driving hundreds of thou- sands from their homes, and obliging the French Government to devise complicated and expensive defenses for Paris, and to pre- pare to send away a considerable part of its population. The German war plan includes this economic injury to its adversary, increased 34 AN ENDURING VICTORY by the direction given to each blow; but up to now, this highly important point has been but Uttle understood among us. I shall be told in answer that our own opera- tions from April to August have caused great loss to the Germans in men and material. This question of losses needs careful consideration and to understand it better we should keep in mind the general conditions under which the war proceeds and which we are apt to for- get. Many among us talk of the enemy's losses as if we had discovered a way to make war without hurting ourselves, but unfortunately this cannot be. It is hard to realize that in the great offensives and counter-offensives at the western front lasting for weeks, even if the Germans lose 500,000 men and we only 400,000, a difference of 100,000 in our favor, the former would still be the gainers owing to the capital factor in the situation which we leave out of account. We think of the Allied position as if the western front were a wall with comparable conditions on each side. Many of us believe that if the enemy extends his hue toward the west he gains, while if we push it eastward in the same proportion the Allies achieve a success analogous to that HOW THE GERMANS DECEIVE 35 reached by the Germans. In order to see why this impression is not the correct one, we must grasp the great difference made by the fact that Germany is fighting in France and Bel- gium, while we make war on our own soil. Every kilometre that Germany has gained on the western front has brought her closer into our vital points, the Channel coasts and Paris. Meanwhile in their advance her armies reduce their war expenses by living on the country, robbing us and enriching themselves at the same time. On the contrary, in order to re- gain her invaded provinces, France spends milliards in projectiles, and with her own shells tears to pieces French towns and vil- lages which the Germans had not entirely de- stroyed. Are France and Germany, then, in the same situation.^ The Allies look too much at the military side of the question, without con- sidering economic factors which, nevertheless, are closely connected with the conduct of the war and will strongly influence the conditions of peace. The Allies do not realize the differ- ence made by the fact that the war has not touched Germany directly, except at the very first, when the Russians penetrated a small part of eastern Prussia. On the other hand. 36 AN ENDURING VICTORY the richest provinces of France have been bled white, and the economic effect of this alone would decide in favor of Germany if the Allied victory should not be so complete as to insure compensation to France for her im- mense losses. The situation, therefore, is not all the same for both sides on the western front. There are other reasons yet more conclusive. In the course of an offensive followed by a reverse, let us assume that the Germans lose more men by a fourth than the Allies, but even this sacrifice may have its military com- pensations enabling the enemy to keep his general position nearly the same, with the difference of a few kilometres, while he oc- cupies behind his western front a great extent of country over which he can still fight and fall back indefinitely, thus weakening his ad- versary before his own soil can be directly attacked. An objector to this argument may urge that "we shall exhaust the Germans if we continue to kill 100,000 men in excess of our own loss, and the German retirement of July 15th shows that they are already short of reserves." This reasoning would be right if our calculations as to the German resources were well founded, but unfortunately events HOW THE GERMANS DECEIVE 37 have too often falsified them as a natural re- sult of our mistaken premises, as I prove in Chapter III. Also, the German retirement from France and Belgium may be viewed as a necessary part of the great pacifist move- ment described in Chapter II, and a conse- quence of the great Entente success in the Balkans. Even if the Germans do lack men on a local front in consequence of their losses since July, 1918, this can only be a temporary condition. Before winter they can bring into the field the class of 1920, a contingent reck- oned by many Allied papers at 400,000 men. I consider this question in Chapter III, and will explain why it seems to me that this class will amount to much more. Finally the dis- organization of Russia has opened to Ger- many sources of new effectives from which she can probably draw fresh troops. For these various reasons, we were not justified in aflSrm- ing in August, 1918, that by a simple excess of losses inflicted on the Germans in the west (unless these losses surpass enormously the total of the Allies, of which we have as yet no instance) we can bring about a German defeat adequate to insure a complete Allied victory. Many among us do not perceive this ab- 38 AN ENDURING VICTORY solutely essential point which is, nevertheless, easy to grasp by looking at the map (page 14) and reading the following chapter. Even if our military successes had con- tinued and forced our enemies out of France and Belgium, if they had been able to keep control of Austria-Hungary the Germans would still have been victorious, because the war would have left them in possession of their ill- gotten gains and would have given them the economic monopoly of Central Europe and Russia, all enormously rich countries, while the Allies, on the contrary, would have come out of the struggle triumphant in the west, but reduced in population, and in such a hopeless financial position that they could not enforce conditions of peace. Within very few months after the signature of such a treaty, the Allies of western Europe would have become vassals of Germany. This inadmissible result could never have been a cause of apprehension if, instead of concentrating their attention on the western front, the Allies had kept the war map — that of Pangermany — ^before their eyes. For the last four years I have explained in every possible way that on the eastern side there were many weak points where the Allies could injure Germany. With the help of political HOW THE GERMANS DECEIVE 39 strategy, they could prevail there in a shorter time, and at much less cost than by exerting military pressure in the west. We could only win a complete western victory by annihilating the German army. If this were possible, it would entail also the equal destruction of the Allies by the Germans. A mistake was after all within the bounds of possibility; it is under- stood at last that we must insure ourselves, against it by working on Pangermany's weak- nesses. This was the only way to destroy her hold on Austria-Hungary and Russia, a task as necessary to accomplish as the libera- tion of France and Belgium. This campaign against the causes of weakness in Pangermany could have been prosecuted without slacken- ing our efforts on the western front. It has even proved helpful in that region. The defeat of Bulgaria has besides contributed enormously to weaken the morale of the German soldiers fighting on the western front. The insurrec- tions organized among peoples oppressed in Austria-Hungary have destroyed the indis- pensable communications with the east, and the situation of the German armies in the west has become materially and morally untenable. These immense advantages will have their vast effects on condition that the 40 AN ENDURING VICTORY Allies act to the end in the most decisive fashion in central Europe. * The mistaken estimate of facts which I pointed out is largely produced by German influence, which has tended to stupefy public opinion for the last four years. I dwell on these mistakes because I am convinced that they form a state of mind in Allied countries which widens the distance between us and real victory. Throughout history an exact knowl- edge of facts has brought success, not illusions, and these erroneous views expose us at this moment to these serious dangers. 1. Our misinterpretations play the game of the pacifist and the Bolshevist parties among us. To take the most favorable hypothesis, if the German retirement lasts for weeks, if France and Belgium are completly evacuated, a large part of our public will claim the vic- tory, as, indeed, it has already begun to do, and the pacifists and Bolshevists will say: ''If we are the victors, you have no right not to make peace." What answer is there to their argument.^ But if we treat with Germany without taking the most extraordinary pre- HOW THE GERMANS DECEIVE 41 cautions, it will mean our ruin and leave her dominant in Russia. 2. Teuton propagandists tell the Allies that Germany is ruined and starving; that her man-power is exhausted and that our west- ern victories are decisive. This produces the mistaken views of which I speak, raising il- lusions in the public mind which contribute to the success of the great pacifist offensive which Germany continues obstinately, and of which I shall unmask the reasons in the fol- lowing chapter. As a preliminary it was need- ful to show the atmosphere of false ideas caused by German propaganda, which fur- nishes the medium in which these dangerous intrigues can act with success. III. For the first time in history war has shown this most singular characteristic of alternately prosecuting military and peace offensives, some- times even both together. We must bear in mind that the pacifist advances are an in- tegral part of war technic and as such are all launched by the German Government. The Allies have followed the old rules and act on strategic military lines, but the Berlin General 42 AN ENDURING VICTORY Staff used political strategy also; this is more complicated and difficult and demands wide and precise information, but to succeed it utilizes all possible factors, especially the enemy's psychology, his lack of outside information, and his imperfect comprehension of the nature of a modern victory where economic consequences bring about results as far-reaching as miUtary operations themselves. * We often hear it said among the Allies that "The invasion of Belgium brought England into the war, and America entered because of the sinking of the Lusitania, The German psychology is all wrong ! " Certainly, the Germans have committed psychological faults; I should be the last to contradict it, for I have had only too much experience of their lack of tact, but if they have made blunders of this sort it would be a mistake to suppose that they are always at fault. In truth, the German has a peculiar psy- chology which has grown out of slow and pa- tient observation of foreign nations. It is based on exact information, and from it he draws immense results. His minute knowledge HOW THE GERMANS DECEIVE 43 of those best able to act strongly on the Rus- sian intellectual proletariat led to great con- sequences. As soon as the revolution broke out, Lenine was hurried from Switzerland to Russia in a special train, as the man fitted to lead the proletariat toward Bolshevist Pan- germanism. This utilization of Lenine was undoubtedly good psychology. Germans understand that some French and EngHsh socialists are surprisingly ignorant of geo- graphical, ethnographical, and economic ques- tions, and that they love fine words and sonorous phrases. The Boches made dexter- ous use of this state of mind when they sug- gested the formula, "Peace without indemni- ties or annexations," which penetrated to the Alhed socialists through their Russian brethren. This formula, voted by the Reichstag, July 19th, 1917, was a psychological manoeuvre, as we see by an article in the Germania, quoted by the Paris Temps, April 18th of the same year. This article says cynically: ''The July resolution was a question of tactics, which tends to strengthen the Bolshevist power and increase the longing for peace in the east. These tactics are now laid aside, and our pres- ent object is to reach a victorious peace in the west by force of arms." 44 AN ENDURING VICTORY Another prominent psychological manoeuvre consists in utilizing the bUnd optimism of the Allies by means of neutral newspaper propa- ganda. Contrary to their hopes, force of arms was not enough to impose a German peace in the west, chiefly owing to the size and value of the American reinforcements; now, in order to deceive the AUies and trap them into peace negotiations without complete victory, we see the Berlin government resort to an astute combination embracing many psychological elements. Let us admit the truth; the Germans are capable of the sort of psychology which grows out of exact information and is adapted to war aims as they are seen in Berlin. The real brain of the German General Staff is General Ludendorff, who inspired and moulded the pacifist offensives as well as the military cam- paigns. These offensives proceeded in many ways; through the German press, which, like a Prussian soldier, obeys the suggestions of the high command, or through neutral jour- nals. Sometimes a man Uke Hertling dropped a phrase of double meaning, or a word came through an Austrian intermediary hke Burian or Czernin. Sometimes agents from Bul- garia (during a very long period), Turkey, HOW THE GERMANS DECEIVE 45 or Austria entrapped the Allied emissaries in Switzerland, or a bait was ofiPered to the Vati- can, which simply swallowed it. All these pacifist offensives under any form start from the General Staff in Berlin. The part played by this organization in pacifist plans, which at first sight seem so different from military offensives, ought not to surprise us. Those who really understand Germany — unfortunately too few — ^know well that the Reichstag has no real power in the empire, and that the force which guides German policy, even in time of peace, is this formidable in- tellectual machine, on which rests the fate of the HohenzoUerns and of Prussian mili- tarism. The oflBcers who compose the General Staff are carefully selected. They not only control military affairs, as we know, but there are among them experts on all questions. These officers are certainly accomplices in a great scheme of robbery, but we shall be wide of the truth if we do not understand that they are men not only well versed in military sub- jects, but also in applied sciences; geography, ethnography, political economy and national psychology. This stupendous organization is so old, so well supplied with technical inf orma- 46 AN ENDURING VICTORY tion brought up-to-date, that the General StafI of BerUn is able to pursue a political strategy specially adapted to the conditions of each region. This strategy often misleads the Allies because they were even less prepared for the intellectual conduct of the war than they were in a material sense. When one looks at the German General Staff as a whole, it is easy to see that it initiates pacifist offensives, and this is still more clearly realized when we note the strong pressure these offensives exert on the conduct of the war, and the many technical objectives of a particular sort at which they invariably aim. The first object of a German pacifist offen- sive has been to hide the extent of the gigantic Pangermanist plan from the Allies. To carry this out, the General Staff knew that it should conquer its many adversaries in succession, employing the classical tactics of the Horatii against the Curiatii, that is to say, beating them one after the other. To reach this end it resolved to utilize the undoubted ignorance of the Pangerman plan which the Allies had shown in the first years of the war, so as to persuade them that each large military operation against Russia, Serbia, HOW THE GERMANS DECEIVE 47 or Roumania, would be the last. This is why newspaper articles through Holland and Switzerland inspired by the Berlin General Staff frequently gave out that Germany was exhausted, that she had enough of it, and that she lacked food or munitions to carry on the struggle. As these items were credulously quoted, whenever desired, by many Allied papers, during the first three years of the war, a large part of public opinion in France and England has been convinced that the war would be over in three months, and this state of mind has made it easily possible for the Germans to carry out successive military of- fensives in due order. The pacifist offensive is, therefore, a way of pursuing a military offensive. Secondly, the German pacifist offensives, with their suggestion of an early peace, have made it possible for the General Staff to or- ganize Central Pangermany, that is to say, to put Austria-Hungary, Bulgaria, and Tur- key in a position to support a long war. Further, these three countries, particularly Austria-Hungary and Bulgaria, were in every way the weak strategic points of the Central Powers. Berlin had therefore a strong motive to prevent the Allies from acting in these re- 48 AN ENDURING VICTORY gions. This third object has been attained for four years by pacifist propaganda, through agents in Switzerland, who persuaded the Al- lies that Turkey, Bulgaria, or Austria-Hungary desired to conclude a separate peace with them. Fourthly, the mission of the German pacifist oflFensives was to act on the pacifist groups in all Entente countries. These consist often of good people honestly desirous of putting an end to the frightful conflict, but these worthy folks are profoundly ignorant of technical problems, and know next to nothing about Germany, Austria-Hungary, or the Balkans, where most of them have never set foot. The result is these pacifists seize on the smallest incident which seems favorable to their cause, and which is really a Boche pitfall. They say: '"Peace is possible, we should look into it, and negotiate." This is what they said in 1917, at the time of the interminable discus- sions on the Stockholm conference, which con- tributed greatly to consolidate the Bolsheviks, and so disintegrate Russia. This they repeated when in July, 1917, the Reichstag voted for "Peace without annexations or indemnities," a formula hiding the most treacherous ma- noeuvres, as we have seen in the article from HOW THE GERMANS DECEIVE 49 Germania above quoted. They said the same thing when the Emperor of Austria pub- lished his letters about Alsace-Lorraine at the very moment that his troops invaded southern Russia. The effect of this persistent credulity on the part of the Entente pacifists has been that for the last two years particularly, the Allied governments have lost precious time in discussing incidents which would not have oc- cupied them five minutes if they had possessed exact information, as subsequent events have shown in every case. The general result from these efforts has been that, dragged in all di- rections by contradictory opinions, the Allied governments could not make the best use of the forces of the Entente, which was exactly what the Berlin General Staff wished to bring about by its pacifist offensives. Now that the war is at last entering on its decisive phase, now that the number and bravery of American troops obliges the Ger- mans to admit that they were wrong as to the value of help sent from the United States, and forces them to renounce the hope of a speedy and brilliant victory, while the pro- longed struggle has produced an unprecedented financial condition in the west, of the most se- rious importance, the great pacifist manoeuvre 50 AN ENDURING VICTORY has for its first object to stop hostilities before the invasion of Germany. In the conduct of the war the German Gen- eral Staff has already shown a high order of imagination: asphyxiating gas, for example, on the material side, Russia destroyed by pacifism on the intellectual. But the blow which they sought to make successful ex- ceeded all the others in audacity, in surprise, and in psychological ingenuity. They in- tended to compass the final defeat of the Allies by means which I shall lay bare in the next chapter, and they sought to make them ac- cept this defeat through a well-advised camou- flage hiding it under an apparent military victory. The wide reverberations of the Bulgarian defeat have come to discredit this plan, but nevertheless it still has its dangers, for with the help of the Allied pacifists the Boches are making persistent efforts to prevent at any price the invasion of Germany. CHAPTER II. HOW THE GERMANS, IF THEY SECURE AN ARMIS- TICE, COUNT UPON CARRYING OFF THE VIC- TORY AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE ECONOMIC CONDITION CREATED IN EUROPE BY FOUR YEARS OF WAR. I. Germany's war profits form the chief basis of the pacifist manoeuvres. n. The fact that the circulation of paper currency in Ger- many is largely measured by the produce of her gigan- tic thefts, while, on the other hand, that of the Allies depends on their complete victory, constitutes the second base of German schemes. in. If circumstances make it feasible, the Alsace-Lorraine trick will be tried in order to enter on the practical realization of German plans by dividing the Allies, and leading France to "peace talk" before a complete victory. rV. Why the Germans believe that if the Allies are led into "peace talk" before achieving a full grasp of the Eu- ropean situation which assures their victory, their financial ruin will ensue. This without more great battles would be enough to bring about the final suc- cess of Germany. As Berlin sees it, the economic situation caused by four years of conflict, will make it possible for Germany to win the war on the sole condition that the Allies, even if victorious, confine their exertions to the western front — 51 52 AN ENDURING VICTORY that of France and Belgium — and grant to Ger- many an armistice not followed by a deep invasion of her territory. The economic situation of the Allies, does indeed differ so materially from that of Ger- many that the General Staff can try something quite new in the way of pacifist machinations. These will be all the more dangerous because they will gain the advantage of a surprise, as the close connection between the economic position of the west of Europe and the Allies' success in the war is little understood. Ger- man blows owe most of their effect to surprise; therefore, if the conditions necessary to the realization of the policy of Berlin were made known beforehand to the great Entente public, it would render much of this policy abortive. Germany wants to make a western Brest- Litovsk treaty. This treaty was really an operation of strategic policy in two acts. First act. Peace in appearance, which on account of the nervous tension resulting from an excep- tionally long and cruel war is enough to shake the morale of the enemy. Second act. Re- sumption of hostilities under relatively easy conditions, the spirit of the adversary being once broken. We now see clearly that Ger- many overthrew Russia, without the need of THE GERMANS AND THE ARMISTICE 53 resorting to large military operations because the treaty of Brest-Litovsk had destroyed the Russian armies. Now that they see where "peace" with Germany has led them many Russians are in revolt, but the lack of material means weakens their rebellion, and it is now certain that the Germans, through the Bolshe- vists, can act directly on Russia as far as Si- beria. A step analogous to that at Brest- Litovsk would enable Germany to gain the war easily and entirely, even if she were previously forced out of France and Belgium by military means. This step could be taken by utilizing this time the particular economic condition of western Europe, favored by illusions enter- tained by a section of the Allied public, as I have shown in the preceding chapter. In order to throw into relief the effects of a western Brest-Litovsk, we will take in turn the essential constituents of the German manoeuvre, viz.: 1st. The profits of the war to Germany. 2d. The fact that the circulation of paper currency in Germany is guaranteed by the produce of her thefts. 3d. The Alsace-Lorraine trick. 54 AN ENDURING VICTORY I. I have already written on the subject of Germany's profits from the war, but in order to make her pacifist manoeuvres clear I will once more show what she has gained by her aggressions. She has long labored with a view to keeping the fruit of her gigantic thefts after the conclusion of peace. In order to hide them as much as possible, she uses neutral papers to spread abroad the idea that Germany is ruined by the war. This is what most of the Allies believe, as they think, on just grounds. When they read in the Swiss papers that the mark has depreciated 45 per cent, and the franc only 20 per cent, they think this indicates the proportion in which France and Germany are touched financially by the war. But such is not the fact. The German rate falls, first because a general and well-founded feeling exists that Germany will be beaten. This can only come about if the Allies fight to the end with all the resources at their command, and if the United States throw their whole weight into the scale. Secondly, and above all, it is because Germany is blockaded, and has no exports, consequently she is paid nothing from the outside and must settle in THE GERMANS AND THE ARMISTICE 55 gold for all that comes to her from neutrals. The result is her foreign credit shrinks and causes the German rate to fall. But this posi- tion of Germany on the outside does not at all affect her credit at home. This we never hear spoken of, but it is very important and increased with every new seizure of enemy territory. Each of these operations yielded Germany much more than they cost. For instance, when she laid hands on Belgium after long premeditation, it was because of the ex- traordinary wealth of that unhappy country, from which the Berlin government has drawn sums much greater than the expense of the conquest. The same is true of German seizures in northern France, Serbia, Roumania, Rus- sia, etc., which were carried out on a paying basis, according to the best Boche traditions. It is therefore untrue to say, as the Allies often do without having really looked into it, that Germany is ruined by the war. In the jQrst place, this is contrary to fact, as I shall show, and again if we believe this we play into the Boche hands by believing that Germany can never repair the harm she has done, or restore the value of all that she has stolen. The war has been much less costly to Ger- many than to the Allies, because of her long 56 AN ENDURING VICTORY preparation and her thefts in all directions, as well as for the reason that the Teuton armies live on their enemies' country. On the other hand, the Allies were obliged to improvise the enormous material required in great haste, and they pay their bills honestly. The proof of this is that in three years of war the cost to Germany is 1,612 francs per head, 608 francs less than in France. The latter has spent 2,220 per head, 38 per cent more than in Germany. Therefore, if we made peace according to the formula "Peace with- out indemnities," it would lead to an unheard- of injustice. Every peace-loving Frenchman would have to bear a financial burden a third heavier than that of a faithful servant of the Kaiser, who wished for war. If this difference in war expenditures continues, it will be enough to ruin France. Clearly, if the Frenchman has to support a weight 38 per cent heavier, he will have to yield before the German. The latter will be saved, while his adversaries suc- cumb, leaving him to gather in the spoils. On the whole, at the end of the third year of the war, the Allies had spent at least 144 milliards of francs more than the Central Em- pires. During the fourth year this figure has increased considerably on account of the im- THE GERMANS AND THE ARMISTICE 57 mense expenditure of the United States, which in August, 1918, amounted to 50 milHons of dollars a day. There are still worse economic consequences to be feared from the fact that if the existing situation continues in eastern Europe, Ger- many will be secure now and in future of huge profits much greater than her war expenses, while the Allies will stagger for many years under crushing financial burdens. Germany's war-profits, as they appeared he- fore the victory of the Allies over Bulgaria (Oc- tober, 1918) were: 1st. The value of plunder in occupied coun- tries, Serbia, Roumania, Russia, Belgium, and France (materials of war, foodstuffs, raw ma- terial, industrial plants, furniture, objects of art, war contributions, bonds, securities, etc.). 2d. The accomplishment of the Hamburg- Persian GuK plan, secured by Pangerman mortgages, loans made by Germany to Aus- tria-Hungary, Bulgaria, and Turkey. These loans are only made on paper, and have cost Germany nothing, but they give her the great advantage of entire economic control over her Allies, the three Central Powers. 3d. The treaty signed by Turkey at Berlin, 11th of January, 1917, gives Germany a mo- 58 AN ENDURING VICTORY nopoly in the Turkish Empire, a country enor- mously rich in agricultural and mineral re- sources, of which she has begun already to take advantage. 4th. The realization of economic Panger- many, in other words, the orderly development on a large scale of all its productions, mineral, vegetable, animal, and industrial (see map, page 14), transported through a network of canals at the least possible cost. The Ger- mans could thus pay large wages to their own workmen, while the cost price would be so much lowered in all departments of produc- tion that they could undersell everywhere in Europe, and perhaps all over the world. 5th. The realization of military Panger- many. This guarantees the permanence of economic Pangermany, and through it Berlin controls all its forces (about 30 millions of soldiers) occupying Antwerp, Riga, Trieste, Cattaro, the Ottoman straits, the eastern Mediterranean, and the Black Sea. Never before on earth has there been so vast a strategic whole in the hands of a single power. 6th. The exploiting monopoly in European and Asiatic Russia, great regions with in- finitely rich opportunities. 7th. The actual substitution of German THE GERMANS AND THE ARMISTICE 59 credit for that of the AlHes in Russia and the east represents tens of milliards. Now, in four years of war, Germany has spent about 140 milliards of marks. The sum of these seven war-profits shows a difference in her favor of hundreds of milliards, as we see without difficulty. The war profits of Germany are therefore much greater than her war expenses; this is contrary to the opinion of many among the Allies, but it is the fact that the war is exceed- ingly profitable to the Germans, and for this reason their government directs it particularly from the economic standpoint. Without doubt the surrender of Bulgaria has begun to get back some of the oriental profits of Germany, but all these may be destroyed. Also it is necessary for the Allies to complete thoroughly their victory in the east, which would have the practical effect of loosening the hold of Germany on Russia. Besides, there would remain to the Germans all the booty that they have stolen, and that it is our business to make them restore. The war as waged by the German people is essentially predatory; it is the largest pirat- ical enterprise known in history, and has been carefully planned for years. 60 AN ENDURING VICTORY Long before the war, the Berlin government maintained a secret propaganda to convince the people that if Greater Germany became an accomplished fact it would materially add to the prosperity of the working classes. It was this hope of material and personal ad- vantages to be gained from economic Pan- germany that caused the great majority of the socialists to stand by the Kaiser and his General Staff. The methods of obtaining these rich prizes, were clearly thought out beforehand; as an example read the remark of Baron von Wangenheim, German ambas- sador at Constantinople, to M. Morgenthau: *' Remember that this time we will make war without mercy. . . . We will carry off to Berlin all the French art treasures which be- long to the state." This principle has been applied wherever possible, and even private property has not been respected. The booty brought in by the war has exceeded all expec- tations, as the Germans themselves admit, though it is the policy of their government to conceal the truth as much as possible from the outside world. L'Homme Libre of February 16th, 1918, quotes from the January number of Die Hilfe, a review by Frederic Naumann, the man of THE GERMANS AND THE ARMISTICE 61 Mitteleuropa. Here we can read an avowal which should be known to every Allied citizen: "The war in general was looked upon as a piece of good luck, so much so that a business man in good standing did not hesitate to say that 'a man who does not make money out of this war does not deserve it.'" This particular Boche ought to be satisfied, for his compatriots have been worthy of the struggle they provoked, and have enriched themselves beyond measure according to their deliberate plans. The truth which the foregoing facts are meant to impress on the American mind is that, since Germany has made enormous war- profits, the European AUies have undergone unprecedented losses without any compensa- tion. Their economic position is therefore greatly inferior to that of Germany, but un- fortunately this state of things is but little known. It must be seriously considered, how- ever, before laying down the conditions of a peace which shall bring restoration and jus- tice to the world. Great losses for the Allies, great gains for Germany — this, then, is the situation which lies at the root of her pacifist plan. 62 AN ENDURING VICTORY II. The financial reverberations of this war will have deep and lasting results to every citizen of the belligerent countries, without exception. Each American has therefore a direct personal interest in understanding a state of things which will affect him strongly for good or evil. As we have seen, Germany is so far the only one of the belligerents whose gains by the war much exceed her expenditures; this is the first thing we must grasp if we would understand the war situation. The second is that this enrichment of Germany, dishonestly acquired, but real none the less, has placed her in so favorable an economic position that, even if the Allies drive her out of France and Belgium, she can still discuss peace terms with advantage. This is hard to understand, but is elucidated by the following considerations: It is well known that without exception all the belligerents have much extended their fiduciary circulation, at present represented by a large issue of bank paper and currency. This extension is so great that the specie re- serves have not been increased in the same proportion, so that with each new issue of paper the gold and silver guaranty shrinks THE GERMANS AND THE ARMISTICE 63 equally. There are even countries where the specie reserve is much less than it was in 1914, while paper money has much increased. The following table, taken from the figures of the circular of the Schweizerische Kreditanstalt of Zurich, May 31st, 1918, gives a review of the situation from the end of June, 1914, to the end of April, 1918; for Germany in millions of marks, for Austria-Hungary in millions of crowns, for France in millions of francs, and for England in millions of pounds sterling. Country Currency Specie Reserve Increase or shrink- age from end of June, 1914, to end of April, 1918 End of June 1914 End of April 1918 End of June 1914 End of April 1918 Specie Paper Germany Austria-Hungary France 2,597 2,325 6,051 29.78 19,225 18,440 26,773 287.50 1,631 1,609 4,697 40.08 2,465 382 5,636 89.86 834 -1,227 939 49.78 16,628 16,115 20,682 England 257.72 This table shows that Austria's specie re- serve has shrunk to the enormous extent of 1,227 millions of crowns in the period that her paper increased by 16 milliards, and it is nearly certain that this 1,227 millions of crowns were handed over to Germany as security for 64 AN ENDURING VICTORY the heavy loans made by Berlin to Vienna to carry on the war, an indication of the abso- lutely dependent condition of the latter. If the principal ally of Germany is brought to such a pass as this, it is reasonable to sup- pose that the state of the currency in Bulgaria and Turkey and of their finances is even worse. There can be no doubt these allies of Germany, considered as states, are ruined by the war, for the immense inflation of their paper money added to war expenses and the huge debts owed to Berlin, weaken them eco- nomically. But it is well to observe that the ruin of friendly states does no harm to Ger- many; on the contrary, if the Allied troops do not materially reorganize central Europe on an absolutely new basis, Germany profits by it, for the poverty of the governments of Vienna, Sofia, and Constantinople puts them completely in the power of Berlin, which dic- tates all the combinations leading to the sup- port of Pangermany, and dominates central Europe and the Ottoman Empire. England has more than doubled her gold reserve, but her output of paper money and Bank of England notes, according to the figures of the Swiss Bank above quoted, have in- creased in round numbers from 30 to 287 mil- THE GERMANS AND THE ARMISTICE 65 lions of pounds sterling, that is to say, 9 times more than at the outbreak of the war. As for France, as she is the pivot of the coali- tion, and her richest territory is invaded, the war has caused her nothing but loss. Her specie reserve has indeed increased by nearly a milhard, but of the 5.636 milliards which made up this reserve in gold and silver at the end of April, 1918, 2 milliards were set aside as security for debts contracted in foreign countries, while the increase at this date of notes of the Bank of France exceeded 20 mil- liards. We can see by the above table that the bank paper of the European belligerents is nowhere suflSciently secured by gold reserves; therefore the value of this paper depends on victory, which will affect profoundly the credit of the various states, and, consequently, the money issued by them. In practice, then, when peace is concluded it will be then that the notes and paper money of all the countries in Europe will show their strength or weak- ness, and very shortly too, for then the situa- tion in which each one is left by the war will stand out clearly. From now on, we can see a result brought about by the war, most unjust but none the 66 AN ENDURING VICTORY less certain: when we come to discuss con- ditions of peace Germany will be in a much more advantageous position than the other belligerents because her fiduciary circulation will be sounder, consequently her issue of bank- notes more secure. While France has con- tracted enormous foreign debts to buy large amounts of raw material for manufactures and food necessary to her population, the Allied blockade, curiously enough, has been of service to Germany. She could buy nothing outside, and therefore could not run in debt, but was forced to supply her needs either by substitutes or products of Pangermany. These products, as a rule, cost her nothing because they were simply stolen from invaded coun- tries: food, crops, metals, coal, etc. It stands to reason that a shell made of stolen French iron, with stolen Belgian coal, costs Germany less than a shell costs the French Government, which is made with coal bought in England and steel from the United States. This ex- ample might be multiplied indefinitely, but it serves to explain how Germany makes war more cheaply than the Allies, and why she has kept her money at home, while that of France is sent abroad. The circulation of bank-notes of the Ger- THE GERMANS AND THE ARMISTICE 67 man Empire had increased during the war by 16,628 millions of marks at the end of April, 1918. At this date, the specie guarantee of these notes was 2,465 millions of marks. This was not enough to secure about 20 milliards of notes, a figure which includes those issued before the war; observe, therefore, that for special reasons this considerable increase in bank-notes does not cause as great risk and inconvenience to Germany as to other coun- tries; this is a point not before touched upon, but very necessary to consider. In point of fact, the bank-notes of the empire are not only secured by the government reserve in gold and silver but by the material profits Germany has gained by the war. These are of different kinds, and consist of money taken from Belgium, France, Serbia, Roumania, or Russia, of which the government of Berlin is careful to say nothing. Other values are not represented by gold and silver, precisely because these are a purchasing medium. The immense war material and the ships which the Germans took from Russia, the rolling- stock of railways everywhere seized by them, re- present milliards. Again, colonial monopolies cost millions to acquire, which were paid by great companies hoping to grow rich by de- 68 AN ENDURING VICTORY veloping such territories. The war has given to Germany the economic control perhaps of the Balkans and of the Turkish Empire, but certainly of Russia, all rich countries which she is already opening up, and where, if she can maintain her hold, she can realize a profit of many milliards on a relatively small out- lay, for this monopoly cost her only what she has paid in war expenditures — little com- pared with the stupendous results obtained. It is obvious that the value of all this loot is infinitely greater than the 20 milliards of notes issued by the German Bank, even if one adds about 84 milliards of marks borrowed in Ger- many up to July 1st, 1918. The Germans have long been led by their government propa- ganda to look upon war as a ''get-rich-quick" scheme; they feel, therefore, that the war gains constitute an additional security for the credit of the empire. The result is that, within their own borders, and because Ger- mans believe firmly that their conquests will be permanent, particularly those in the east, government loans and the circulation of paper currency are thought safer than ever, resting, as they do, on two firm supports; first, the specie reserve, and second, the immense wealth gained by the war. Certainly the most recent THE GERMANS AND THE ARMISTICE 69 events compel the Germans to give up a notable part of their gains, but those which remain are yet so great that Germany is still, in spite of everything, in an advantageous situ- ation to discuss peace. England, Italy, and France have had to increase their paper money enormously over peace-times without adding to their security proportionally; there is necessarily, there- fore, a wide diflference between the economic position of Germany and that of the Allies not understood among us, but which the Ger- mans comprehend perfectly. L'Homme En- chaine quotes from an article in the Rhine and Westphalia Gazette, August 24th, 1917: "Every milliard extorted from Belgium, France, or Serbia is just so much gain to us and loss to the enemy." Germany tries to draw advantage from this difference by peace parley and armistice before the Allies can completely reverse the situation in central Europe and force her to disgorge her prey, dishonestly come by, but valuable as security for her bank issues. Berlin will endeavor to lead the Allies into premature peace negotiations, in order that their swift economic downfall, resulting from the difference of security of the German bank- 70 AN ENDURING VICTORY notes and that of the bank-notes of the Euro- pean Entente Allies may suffice to secure to Germany a real victory, not by military means, but by the ruin of her adversaries at the mo- ment when they believe themselves victorious on the strength of a brilliant success without taking into account the economic diversities. III. Let us try now to find out how the astute government of Berlin makes use of differences in economic conditions which four years of war have made between her and the Allies. This difference, as already shown, has two notable characteristics : 1st. Germany has gained and the Allies lost largely by the war. 2d. The German circulation of paper money is safely secured by the booty she has seized, and her commercial monopolies in the east, especially in Russia. The security of the Allies, on the contrary, depends on a victory thorough enough to force Germany to restore what she has stolen, and repair the profound injuries her aggression has wrought on Europe. The German plan will succeed only if the Allies are surprised and can be induced to THE GERMANS AND THE ARMISTICE 71 parley without full comprehension of their precarious financial position, outlined above. They must comprehend not the western situa- tion only, with a view to victory, but all Eu- rope as the sole method of forcing Germany to relinquish completely her eastern gains, which form the chief basis of her war profits. Berlin counts on the Alsace-Lorraine trick to bring the Allies into peace negotiations before the time. I predicted this two years ago, but since then several Austrian or German personalities have baited the hook with such assurances as *'the Alsace-Lorraine question is the sole obstacle to peace." The letter written by the Emperor of Austria as to French rights in Alsace-Lorraine was part of the same plot, which has been taken up again recently. According to the paper La Suisse of July 30th, 1918, "'the German people are willing to cede Alsace-Lorraine, in order to make peace before it is too late." The mass of the French nation is ready to thwart this Boche manoeuvre, but Americans should know that there are groups of Frenchmen who would let themselves be deceived in all good faith, and the German General Staff has learned by experience in Russia and Caporetto that in countries worn out by a long and cruel strain one may sue- 72 AN ENDURING VICTORY ceed by acting on a relatively small number among civilians or in the army. There are three groups in France who may be taken in by the Alsace-Lorraine trick: First, those who only wish to thrust the in- vader from the soil of France. These do not look at the war in Europe as a whole, nor do they at all understand that France would be irretrievably ruined if Germany retained con- trol of central Europe and her eastern war gains. The second group is composed of well-mean- ing people also, but who fix their eyes on Alsace-Lorraine, forgetting the vital impor- tance of the money questions raised by the war. If after four years of exhausting struggle an undoubted military success should force the Germans back, and oblige them to restore Alsace-Lorraine, many among this group would think us wrong to lose the opportunity to put an end to such carnage. Finally the third group, the smallest but the most dangerous because it makes the most noise, composed of peace-at-any-price members and a few very active French Bol- sheviks. These two sets of people have not dwelt on the restoration to France of her lost provinces, but they would eagerly accept sug- THE GERMANS AND THE ARMISTICE 73 gestions coming from Germany, as they are in agreement with her action. We cannot doubt this when we read a demand that "no peace proposition should be rejected, no matter what its source" (see Le Temps, June 28th, 1918). This demand was contained in a letter dated June, 1918, addressed to the French Par- liament by the Confederation Generale du Tra- vail, the only large union in France, but which really represents a small number of French workers. This state of mind is, moreover, that of some Socialist deputies, careless of realities to such a degree that they have even declared that the war map means nothing. A part at least of the French population could be influenced by these pushing groups, ready to listen to "peace proposals from any- where," even from Germans, whose word is worthless, and without waiting till the mili- tary situation advances far enough to force Germany to keep her engagements toward oppressed peoples, and indemnify France for her stupendous losses. On the other hand, we should completely misapprehend the Germans if we supposed that after their victories and seizures of three- quarters of Europe and part of Asia they mean to yield Alsace-Lorraine permanently 74 AN ENDURING VICTORY to France. They will probably use Alsace- Lorraine as a bone of contention among the Allies, to tempt the French to a premature peace talk, which will destroy their union and morale. This result obtained, they will say: "We will not restore Alsace-Lorraine to you, for you are ruined and unable to take it." All of German tactics is contained in this sentence from the Frankfort Gazette, December, 1916, ''Negotiation does not mean renuncia- tion." Even if it were true that Germany might be disposed to return for the moment Alsace- Lorraine to France, France would be incapable of holding it if Greater Germany still con- trolled Austria-Hungary, the Balkans, and Turkey, a group strong politically and com- mercially, with 30 millions of soldiers under the orders of Berlin. The map here inserted and the accompany- ing table shows Alsace-Lorraine restored to France and Central Pangermany, so that we can see clearly why the former would be too weak to keep her provinces under such circumstances. According to the figures of 1914, without counting men killed in the war, France, including Alsace-Lorraine, could raise at the outside an army of 8,300,000 men, while THE GERMANS AND THE ARMISTICE 75 76 AN ENDURING VICTORY Pangermany would have nearly 22 million more. France, however, could not keep up her army on account of the ruin brought her by the war, while Germany would flourish on the fruits of her vast robberies. These sup- positions show that the underlying problem of the war which touches us all is not the ques- tion of Alsace-Lorraine, but that of Central Pangermany, the foundation of Prussian mili- tarism, which has threatened the entire world. No, neither France nor the Allies are fighting for Alsace-Lorraine — ^part of a great whole — they are fighting for the triumph of peaceful democracy, and this implies the necessity of setting free the peoples enslaved by Germany and her allies. Undoubtedly, Alsace-Lorraine has a right to freedom; she is a symbol of op- pressed peoples, but only a symbol, for her population is a small part of those enslaved. True, in 1871, 1,500,000 Frenchmen were torn from their country, against their will; but in central and eastern Europe, there are now close to 100 millions of Slavs, Latins, and Semites who are reduced to a frightful slavery by the pro-Germans. Their servitude is an obstacle to the establishment of democracy, and so is that of Alsace-Lorraine. Our map, then, shows us that the fate of the latter depends upon THE GERMANS AND THE ARMISTICE 77 the overthrow of Central Pangermany, which will put an end to the Prussian military system. Pangermany can be permanently destroyed only by the liberation of the people she op- presses; we can therefore say justly that the complete freedom of the Poles, Czechs, Jugo- slavs, Roumanians, etc., is the first and un- avoidable condition on which Alsace-Lorraine can be lastingly restored to France. It is possible that some ill-informed groups in France may drift toward the Alsace-Lor- raine snag; we should therefore guard against it, and we have everything needful to this end. The restoration of Alsace-Lorraine depends on an Allied victory which will reconstruct Europe on the principle of nationalities; we must therefore set on foot the necessary propa- ganda to instruct those in France who have not yet grasped this fact. America has begun this propaganda in the most convincing way, for the spectacle of masses of soldiers from the United States fighting with enthusiasm on French soil gives the greatest imaginable encouragement to war-weary men, and makes them feel anew that no stop is possible before the war is brought to a righteous conclusion. President Wilson has also partly blunted the 78 AN ENDURING VICTORY edge of the Alsace-Lorraine stroke in advance. In a speech dehvered July 4th, 1918, he says: ''The settlement must be final. There can be no compromise. No half-way decision is conceivable." Again Lansing's note of May, 1918, defines with justice and clarity the atti- tude of the United States toward the oppressed Slavs and Latins of Central Europe; thus the Alsace-Lorraine trick is already checked in the best way imaginable. But with the Boches one can never be too sure, and the more our press insists on the perfidy hidden under this cloak, the more its success will be rendered impossible. IV. We have explained the situation resulting from four years of war, and we will now show how the Germans could exploit it. Let us assume that the Allies have driven them out of France and Belgium, that Alsace-Lorraine is restored, and that peace negotiations are going on, but that Germany continues to pre- dominate over central Europe and Russia. On this hypothesis, how can the bankruptcy of the Allied European states be brought about, according to the German design .^^ It is not THE GERMANS AND THE ARMISTICE 79 necessary in this connection to touch upon the financial situation of Great Britain and Italy; it will be sufficient to sketch broadly the effect of the German aggression in this respect on France. In the first place, her posi- tion is particularly striking, for she has borne the burden and heat of the day. She is the bulwark of civilization and has made greater money sacrifices, and endured losses much heavier than those of her allies. Secondly, as France is the pivot of the Entente coalition, it is at her finances that the Germans aim, in order by reflex action to reach Italy and Great Britain. At the opening of hostilities France had issued 6 milliards of bank-notes, and in July, 1918, this circulation had increased to 29 mil- liards of francs. In June, 1914, France had 3 milUards in gold and silver, and in July, 1918, the specie reserve of the Bank of France amounted in round numbers to 5 milliards, 600 millions, of which 2 millions in gold was abroad as security for war debts. The French national debt was 30 milliards before the war; when this is over, what with huge war expenditures, reconstruction of railways, etc., it will amount to 200 milliards of francs. Now prior to 1914, the entire fortune of France was estimated 80 AN ENDURING VICTORY by economists at between 250 and 325 mil- liards. The pensions alone for the wounded and for the widows of soldiers, with interest on the war debt, will bring the annual budget up from the former figure of 5 milliards to at least 12 milliards of francs, an increase of not less than 7 milliards which will have to be raised by permanent taxation. The German invasion, besides, has ravaged and pillaged the northeast of France, the chief industrial region, and so rich that before the war it paid a fourth of the French taxes. French citizens also have lost nearly 20 mil- liards in Russian, Balkan, and Ottoman securi- ties. It has been stated, that in the first three years of war, French imports exceeded exports by about 25 milliards, and finally France has borrowed large sums abroad to buy raw ma- terial and feed her population. Every intelligent Frenchman therefore un- derstands that the 29 milliards in paper-money at the above date, must have for their security not only 5 milliards in specie (2 of them abroad), but a victory suflSciently real to force Germany to make good her thefts, and progressively repair the injuries she has caused. THE GERMANS AND THE ARMISTICE 81 This conforms to the most elementary idea of justice, and is also the sole economic pos- sibility. While Germany is gorged with riches as the fruit of her crimes, how could our brave French soldiers pay a tax increase of 7 mil- liards, when they come back from the trenches after such years, the country torn by the struggle, while Germany preserves the greater part of her immense profits ? We must face the truth and speak it plainly : only annuities paid by the Germans, for dam- age inflicted, used to back French national loans, will enable France to save her people from taxes that would soon be fatal, and to keep engagements which she holds sacred. The French believe firmly that a just peace will bring restitution, and that is why they have not lost faith in their paper currency, which in spite of its increase retains its full purchasing power. This economic and psy- chologic position is watched carefully by the cunning Boches, for they hope to make use of it through their pacifist manoeuvres. The Berlin Deutsche OehonomisU May 4th, 1918, says: "The money situation in France is worse now than at any time during the World War. The printing-press is the only source of revenue for M. Klotz, Minister of 82 AN ENDURING VICTORY Finance, and he makes liberal use of it. . . . If this goes on, fresh notes will have to be is- sued in France to pay interest on the national debt, just as in Russia." On the other hand, the Boches know well enough that these difficulties are as naught, as long as France remains the corner-stone of the coalition, for the Entente as a whole, especially since the United States entered the war, has large financial resources. To succeed, then, in their scheme, they want to isolate France, leaving her to cope single-handed with her money difficulties. To understand and thwart this Boche plot we must presuppose a state of things best adapted to its success, as follows: Seeing the influx of American troops, the German Govern- ment will admit that a military decision is not immediately possible, and will endeavor to bring about a treaty of Brest-Litovsk suitable to western conditions. The Berlin General Staff will then adopt the following tactics. Their armies will fall back slowly on the western front, destroying all behind them, so that the ground regained may cost the Allies as much as possible. France and Belgium will be evacuated, while we advance slowly but continuously. Meanwhile, our papers will be THE GERMANS AND THE ARMISTICE 83 filled with accounts of victory, and the public will believe that the German army is con- quered because it has certainly retired before the onslaught of the Allies, the German press will not deny this, it will even offer Alsace- Lorraine as the price of peace. Our pacifists and Bolschevists, encouraged by these events will urge their views more strongly than ever, and the majority of people in Entente coun- tries will be so influenced that at last they will say: "Why accept new sacrifices since we are now victorious ? We can talk of peace on our own terms." The Alhed governments feel the danger of negotiations while Germany still holds Central Europe and Russia, but on our hypothesis we will imagine them over- borne by public opinion. Military operations would then cease, and parleys would begin. Nothing would suit the Germans better, for they would then be sure of the success of their western Brest-Litovsk. They believe that the money position of the Allies is such that peace conversation would be no sooner begun, than it would give rise to the follow- ing chain of circumstances: The Germans argue thus: ''Suppose we engage the Allies in talk, we are none the less masters of Central Europe and Russia. Shortly 84 AN ENDURING VICTORY after the opening of negotiations, the French will be brought to see that Germany will not act as she expects, and repair the harm done by the war. As the purchasing power of the French notes rests entirely on the public con- fidence in German restitution, if this confidence disappears, at the same time, the purchasing power of the notes will also vanish, while the cost of living, already high, will rise still further. This effect is bound to follow since to buy the same article a larger amount of paper money will be required continually, as was the case in Russia. This drop in the purchasing power of notes of the Bank of France will cause wide-spread troubles in daily life over even now invaded districts, which will soon grow inextricable. The people, worn by the long nervous strain, will lose their heads; there will be riots before which the government will be helpless, because the vitia- tion of its currency will have undermined the national credit. Bonds of the National De- fense and French rents will fall with the same rapidity, and this, joined to the hardships of the winter months, will at least destroy the morale of the French, rendering further mili- tary resistance out of the question. Under these circumstances, the British troops and THE GERMANS AND THE ARMISTICE 85 the two million Americans in France could be of no use. 'From this moment,' argue the Germans, 'we have only to repeat the trick which worked so well in Russia after our nego- tiations with the Bolshevists had broken the national spirit. The financial crisis leaving France at our mercy, having carefully saved our eflfectives, reinforced by a new class, we will resume the offensive, this time without serious resistance, and penetrate to the very heart of France. We can then control the material wealth of the hitherto uninvaded districts, and, with the whole country in our power, will use it as a base against the United States according to programme.' " Such is a bird's-eye view of the plot the Germans are working at this moment in try- ing by every means in their power to secure an armistice which would save them from in- vasion and would open a period of negotia- tions. If our lack of foresight allows them to carry it into effect, the results will be in- finitely disastrous. The success of this plan in France would entail the downfall of Eng- land, and of Italy also, on account of her de- pendence on France. Berlin has built up this clever scheme, on which she counts to give her victory, just at the moment that the Allies 86 AN ENDURING VICTORY think they have won. She trusts that these economic methods will prevail, even if she is driven back in the west, as long as she can hold the rest of her war booty and retain her grip on Russia. From the foregoing, we draw three impor- tant conclusions: 1st. The Allied credit depends on a true victory implying restitution from Germany and the relinquishment of her control of cen- tral Europe, which implies the dismemberment of Austria-Hungary. 2d. Four years of war have produced an unprecedented economic situation; therefore the purchasing power of the Allied currency must necessarily diminish if negotiations are entered on before an economically restorative and really decisive victory from the European point of view. 3d. These dangers threaten us only because the Allies have not argued as they should on peace as it would affect the extraordinary state of finance resulting from the war. This omission in most of our peace pro- grammes would end, if these programmes were applied, in a disaster more hopeless than any military catastrophe. This sword hangs over our heads because many of us think of the THE GERMANS AND THE ARMISTICE 87 Germans as impoverished instead of being enriched by the war. It is, however, easy to parry this blow and to make its success im- possible; we must undertake a campaign of popular education to instruct the whole Allied public as to the reality and extent of the Ger- man war projBts. All will then see that the war must not end till Germany has restored the fruit of her enormous thefts and repaired the vast damages which she has caused, not only by the destruction she has carried out, but by the war costs, much greater than her own, which her aggression has forced upon her adversaries. CHAPTER III. PANGERMANY'S PROBABLE MILITARY STRENGTH, AND ITS WEAKNESS AT THE OUTSET OF THE FIFTH YEAR OF WAR. I. The annual military contingent of Germany. II. Approximate strength of German mobilized forces in August, 1918. III. Critical discussion of the figures found to represent the man-power of Germany. IV. The probable total forces of Pangermany in August, 1918. V. How new sources of effectives could have been used to offset the American numbers, if the Allies had not acted in the Balkans and time had been left to the Germans. VI. How it is the successes of the Allies in the Balkans that secure the superiority in man-power to the Entente. VII. The teachings of the recent past and of the present prove the immense power of political strategy, and that for the Allies the Danube-Central Europe front exerts a decisive influence on the issue of the war. The progressive evacuation of France and of Belgium by the Germans, the surrender of Bulgaria, of Turkey, of Austria-Hungary, must not prevent us from studying thoroughly the military forces of the states which have made up and may again make up Pangermany. This study is necessary to avoid, in esti- mating the German man-power, any error, 88 PANGERMANY'S MILITARY STRENGTH 89 at the conclusion of peace, which would be fatal to the cause of democracy. We shall see in effect that the Germans have still more men than the Allies generally believe, and that con- sequently the AUies ought still to be cautious. The opinion prevailing in Entente coun- tries is that victory will fall to the group of beUigerents possessing the greatest man-power, but this opinion is not altogether in harmony with the teachings of history. Thanks to superior strategy. Napoleon often conquered even with numbers against him, and in the first four years of the World War, success has not fallen to the largest numerical group, as the following table will show: Entente Central Powers "Riiccin . . Millions of Inhabitants 182 46 40 36 8 7 6 5 4 334 Germanv Millions of Inhabitants 68 Enffland Austria-Hungary . . Turkey 50 l^roripp 20 Italv Bulgaria 5 Roumania Belgium Total Portugal Serbia Greece Total 143 90 AN ENDURING VICTORY Great Britain certainly was short of men when the war broke out, but by 1916 she had raised a considerable army, and it is equally true that Austria-Hungary was of but little assistance to Germany, owing to the fact that the majority of her Slav and Latin popula- tion — about 28 millions — was averse to the war. Turkey and Bulgaria also were exhausted and stripped of their armaments by the Balkan Wars, so that they did not really come into line before 1915. As a whole, then, the Entente had an enormous numerical advantage of 191 millions of inhabitants over the Central Em- pires, which of course meant reserves of man- power much greater than those of the Boches, but in spite of this a glance at the map of Pan- germany in August, 1918 (page 14), shows that the latter had the upper hand. Numbers, then, do not insure victory, which may rather depend on the strategic use made of forces covering the whole theatre of war. It was necessary to show the relative value of numbers in a campaign, but there should be no misconception as to the extreme im- portance of large reserves, for, the strategic qualities of the contestants being equal, it is obvious that victory will fall to the share of the larger armies. The question of effectives PANGERMANY'S MILITARY STRENGTH 91 is most important to the Allies, and rightly so, but many of them think erroneously that since the American reinforcements assure our superiority in man-power, nothing can over- throw it. If this is so, it is only by reason of certain political-strategic conditions in the east, which I will explain at the end of this chapter. During the first three years of the war. Allied opinion on the question of German reserves was influenced chiefly by Colonel Repington, military critic of the London Times; this paper, however, no longer pub- lishes his articles. In these fateful three years, most Allied papers inclined to the views of the greatest and most devoted to the cause of the Allies of the British dailies, but Colonel Repington's premonitions have been falsified by the events. He announced many times that, according to his calculations, German reserves would be soon exhausted. This mis- take as to the enemy's effectives has done an infinite amount of harm to our cause, as I pointed out in an article published by La Vidoire, Paris, October 28th, 1916. The ar- ticle is here exactly reproduced: "'In the London Times of Jan. 10, 1916, we read : 92 AN ENDURING VICTORY ccc Col. Repington estimates the German losses at 200,000 men a month; if therefore the struggle continues with the same intensity, up to a date between May and October, 1916, Germany will be unable to stop the gaps made in her lines by the fighting of each day. Be- fore that date, then, she must try to obtain a decision, on one front or the other. "'Four weeks later Col. Repington made statements not only entirely opposed to the above, but much more reasonable, and which showed on what slender grounds his earlier calculations had been made. This is clear from his letter to the Times of the 9th of Feb. 1916, in which he asserts that the "Berlin government now has at its disposal reserve forces amounting to 2,700,000 men."' (See L' Information, Paris, February 10th, 1916.) "A month before, when Colonel Repington stated that the Germans were losing 200,000 a month, and that sometime between May and October they would find themselves with- out reserves, he made a serious mistake. The extreme carelessness of his judgment appears yet more clearly when we read a statement in The Times of April 30th, which ignores his previous estimate of the number of German reserves, for he writes exactly as if these re- PANGERMANY'S MILITARY STRENGTH 93 serves did not exist when he says: 'The Ger- man armies on the Russian front do not amount to more than 1,300 men to the mile . . . and to sum up, the eastern front is a new wall of China with nothing behind it.' rin- formation, Paris, May 2, 1916, accepts Rep- ington's miscalculation copying The Times article, with the headline, 'The German armies have no more reserves.' ''By the end of August, 1916, Colonel Rep- ington decides that Germany is reduced ev- erywhere to the defensive (Le Journal, Paris, August 25th, 1916), the lack of reserves ren- dering it impossible for the Kaiser to make a serious offensive. A flat contradiction to this was soon shown when Berlin overthrew Roumania, with fresh troops which poured in from Germany, Austria-Hungary, Turkey, and Bulgaria (see Journal de Geneve, 19th of Oc- tober, 1916, quoting from Uldea Nazionale). "The contrast between the actual facts in 1916 and Repington's calculations of the Ger- man reserves alone will prove to the least in- formed that even if these estimates were serious, they were quite insufficient to give so much as an approximate idea of the truth. "In point of fact, when we speak of German reserves, we must surely mean to include ef- 94 AN ENDURING VICTORY fectives contributed by Austria-Hungary, Tur- key, and Bulgaria, all under orders from Ber- lin; for as far as we can see, without these vassals, Germany could not keep up the struggle. There can be no doubt that the Bulgars work for the King of Prussia in Monastir, and the Turks in Galicia and the Dobrudja. Thus, at the lowest estimate there must be 1,500,000 Turco-Bulgars to be subdued by the Allies, just as much as the Austro-Boches. These 1,500,000 Turco-Bul- gars deserve particular consideration from Colonel Repington, for, as we all know, he has contributed to place them at the service of William II by his strenuous opposition to the Allied attempt to preserve the Danube front; though this was the only operation which could have prevented the junction of the Germans, Bulgars and Turks, and, there- fore, the hold of the Kaiser on this 1,500,000 people. The colonel, however, does not in- clude them in his calculations, any more than the 2 millions of prisoners held by the Ger- mans, who work in their munition factories or behind the military fronts, thereby setting free just so many Austro-Boches, who without these prisoners would have themselves to carry on these labors indispensable to the army. PANGERMANY'S MILITARY STRENGTH 95 "Colonel Repington's carelessness and inco- herence on these points must be clear, then, to the meanest capacity. His estimates as to the enemies' effectives are full of mistakes, for he neglects the essential factors to be considered; and these mistakes have produced the worst practical consequences. The great weight at- tached to The Times, has caused numerous Al- hed newspapers to quote Repington's articles in the fullest confidence, and this has filled the public mind in Entente countries, with the most dangerous notions about the duration of the war, and the extent of effort necessary to defeat the barbarians from beyond the Rhine." These lines were written at the end of 1916. Since then the German offensives in different directions have proved how much Colonel Repington was mistaken as to the enemy's reserves, but these errors have contributed materially to the cruel disappointments of the Allies and the prolongation of the war, for his statements fostered the opinion that the conflict would certainly end in three months, as Germany was near exhaustion, and that all that was needful was to push the fight on the western front until her reserves gave out, when our victory was sure to follow. 96 AN ENDURING VICTORY Four years of war and the fact that the pro- gressive evacuation of France and of Belgium was decided upon by the Germans only after the defeat of Bulgaria at the end of September, 1918, demonstrate the depth of these errors, and as the interest of America is identical with that of the Allies, she should grasp the situation clearly that she may avoid the mis- take made in Europe as to the man-power of Germany, which has always been greatly underestimated, so that even to-day, after the German retreat on the west front, it is placed at much less than it is in reality. The Allies were so much surprised at the numerical superiority of the Germans during their great offensive on the western front in April- June, 1918, that in order to account for it, certain Allies explained that before the war Germany gave out false reports as to her population, which was much larger than the official figures, and now supplied her from resources greater than had been believed. The truth is really much simpler, for mistakes about the German forces arise from superficial ideas existing among the Allies on many sub- jects, not only about Austria-Hungary, Bul- garia, and Turkey, countries difficult to un- derstand, but about Germany as well. PANGERMANY'S MILITARY STRENGTH 97 We are apt to think it a sign of weakness when we see boys of seventeen in the German army, and from the early days of the war our press often mentioned this, saying: "Germany must be in a bad way, if she has to use recruits only seventeen years old." It is, however, perfectly natural, and long before the war it was the law that every German, able to bear arms should be liable to military service, that is, he might be obliged to join the colors at seventeen years of age. In time of peace these joined at twenty, but the circumstance of their enlistment during the war at seventeen, far from being a proof indicative of German exhaustion, shows, on the contrary, that the Berlin government resolved long ago to make war with all the means at its command, and thus to deal its enemies the deadliest blows. In July and August, 1918, when our brilliant counter-offensives forced the Teutons back from the Soisson-Rheims salient, even as early as the first day of August, many of the Allies returned to the opinion that his retirement was owing to lack of men, and that complete victory would result automatically from the destruction of the German army on the west- ern front. It is now hard to understand such fixed and definite ideas. On the 16th of Au- 98 AN ENDURING VICTORY gust many Allied papers estimated the German losses since July 15tli at 250,000 men, 'a large number, no doubt; but to judge sanely of the effect of this on the war we must set against it the loss the Germans have inflicted on us since April, a loss certainly not negligible, as everything in war is a question of comparison between the two contestants. The above figure for German losses is not high enough to allow us to conclude that the enemy at this period, when the Bulgarian disaster had not yet taken place, was al- ready short of reserves, especially as we were assured that he had about 7 millions of men on all the western front. This retirement may, perhaps, be interpreted as part of the shrewd pacifist manoeuvre of which I have spoken in the preceding chapter, and which I had foreseen two years ago (see my pref- ace). Color is given to this idea by an extract from the Stuttgart Neues Taghlatt, dated Au- gust 19th, 1918, which quotes from the Schwdbische Tagwacht, a statement that Ger- many's soldiers are exhausted, and agree with the civil population in demanding peace at any price. I do not say this is not true; I merely state that, given the German censor- PANGERMANY'S MILITARY STRENGTH 99 ship at this period, an item of this sort could only have been published on the other side of the Rhine with permission of the General Staff, which must certainly have had some purpose to serve in authorizing the appear- ance of such a statement. There is at least ground for suspicion. However this may be, four years of war have not justified these opinions held in the Entente, notably by Colonel Repington, as to German reserves. The only way of reaching a fair conclusion on this question, always ex- tremely important, even at this moment when the Germans are beginning to evacuate France and Belgium, is to start fresh, renouncing all former opinions which stand in need of proof, and seeking corroboration from reliable sources as to Germany's man-power and her military strength at the threshold of this fifth year of the war, remembering always that this strength is exerted over the entire war-field subject to the direction of Berlin. To approximate as nearly as possible to the truth, we must study successively the two es- sential elements of this problem. 1st. What is the annual military contingent of Germany ? 2d. Making proper deductions, what was 100 AN ENDURING VICTORY the present state of Germany's mobilized military forces in August, 1918. I. The mistake of the AUies as to German re- serves arises from an inexact valuation of their annual military contingent. Many people of importance put this contingent at about 400,000, and this figure is generally accepted by the Allies. According to German reports dating from before the war, these figures are much below the truth. According to the best-known German military publication, Loe- helVs Jahresherichte for 1911, published in the spring of 1912, the number of recruits for 1910 was 1,245,363, the population of the empire being then exactly Q5 millions. On looking at these figures carefully, we see that they include the class coming up for examina- tion as well as those adjourned from preceding classes. Taken in the lump, they can be analyzed thus: Excluded on account of criminal conviction 890 Invalided 34,067 Men in advance of their time 39,970 Service deferred (ajournh) 715,952 Men fit for service 454,484 Let us analyze these figures, so as to ascer- PANGERMANY'S MILITARY STRENGTH 101 tain the annual contingent of Germany if she had wished to make war in 1910, instead of merely keeping up her peace establishment. To keep down expenses before the war, Germany did not enHst by any means all the men fit for service, so it is plain that if she had brought on war in 1910, she would first have taken into the army the whole number ready for that year; say 454,484 men. Now let us examine the list of those whose service was deferred, 715,952, a very high figure. We must first understand the conditions under which men are deferred (or adjourned) from the German army. This does not happen in cases of sickness, but where the men are phys- ically fit, but suffering from some temporary weakness. It was easy to get an adjournment before the war, as there were more men fit for service than the state could afford to enlist. Moreover, excuse is granted in Germany for any one of a number of reasons, depending on family or commercial considerations, so that men obtain it as — 1st. The necessary support of a family. 2d. The sons of a landed proprietor, farmer, or manufacturer incapable of work. 3d. Next of kin to soldiers killed, or dead of wounds in the service. 102 AN ENDURING VICTORY 4th. Having inherited property or land, which can only be managed by themselves. 5th. Owners of factories or important busi- ness houses where their presence is indispen- sable. 6th. Young men preparing for any pro- fession, study or trade to which interruption would be prejudicial. 7th. Young men living abroad. From this it is clear that the men exempted in peace-time are all physically capable of bearing arms for the Kaiser, or of work in the many branches of service in the rear of an army. Observe also that according to mili- tary law adjournment lasts only three years, so that the number, 715,952 men for 1910, mentioned above includes only three classes adjourned; consequently, taking a third of this figure — 238,650, we reach the mean number of men adjourned in 1910, who would unques- tionably have entered the army in that year. In 1910, Germany had also 34,067 reformes (men invalided), and of course in all the bellig- erent countries it is much harder to be invalided in time of war; therefore we can allow a third of the figure 34,067, say, 11,355, men who would have been part of the war contingent in 1910. To sum up, if Germany had begun the war PANGERMANY'S MILITARY STRENGTH 103 in that year, her war levy would have been made up of three categories, as follows: Fit for service in 1910 454,484 men A third of those adjourned in 1910 238.650 men A third of those reformis in 1910 11,355 men Total 704,489 men Let us say in round numbers 300,000 men besides the 400,000 generally allowed to be the regular annual levy. This total of 700,000 men is probably less than the present annual war contingent in Germany, as it pertains to the year 1910, and according to the Almanack de Gotha, page 531, in 1910 Germany had exactly 64,925,993 in- habitants, in 1913 she had 66,835,000; in- dicating an average increase for each of the three years of 636,335 inhabitants. On this basis, without considering effects resulting from the war, the population of Germany was: In 1911 65,562,328 inhabitants In 1912 66,198,663 inhabitants In 1913 66,835,000 inhabitants In 1914 67,471,335 inhabitants In 1915 68,107,670 inhabitants In 1916 68,744,005 inhabitants In 1917 69,380,340 inhabitants In 1918 70,016,675 inhabitants These figures provide a basis for calculations 104 AN ENDURING VICTORY of great practical interest because the two causes which at present diminish these figures — the German losses and the decline in the birth- rate caused by the war — certainly do not in- fluence the increase of the annual military con- tingent of Germany. Since 1915, those who have reached the military age of seventeen are not less in number owing to events now taking place, because they were born after 1898, that is, during a period in which the German birth- rate was steadily rising from year to year; hence we can fairly consider that the above figures reflect accurately the size of the popu- lation from which Germany has drawn recruits since 1915, but we must bear in mind that on account of the high birth-rate after 1898 re- sources in men are considerable, and will con- tinue for some years to come. Consequently, from the recruiting point of view, the figures showing the growth of the German population from 1911 to 1918 will allow us to estimate as closely as possible the annual military contin- gent of Germany for the same period. If this amounted to 700,000 men in 1910, as against Q5 millions of inhabitants, that is, about 10.77 for every 1,000, it would have been: In 1911 706,055 men In 1912 712,908 men In.l913 719,761 men PANGERMANY'S MILITARY STRENGTH 105 In 1914 726,614 men In 1915 733,467 men In 1916 740,320 men In 1917 747,172 men In 1918 754,025 men This gives a total of 5,840,322 men for these eight years. As the Entente usually reckons the annual German levies at 400,000, in the light of the facts just presented, based on the latest German official figures obtainable, their last eight military contingents would have been calculated as only 3,200,000 men, making an underestimate of apparently about 2,600,000. This showing explains in a striking manner some of the events of the last four years — up to the moment when the Bulgarian debacle and the Allied advance toward the Danube have compelled the German General Staff abruptly to shorten the western front to rush to defend central Europe — particularly: 1st. How Germany has been able, up to the time of the Bulgarian defeat, to continue her penetration in Russia, while maintaining de- fensive pressure in the west. 2d. How the Germans have been able to keep up their long lines of communication, a feat rarely mentioned, but which must re- quire a large personnel. 3d. How for the last four years the Ger- 106 AN ENDURING VICTORY mans have surprised the AlHes, always op- posing them with forces superior to their cal- culations at any critical moment. II. The annual military levy of Germany since 1910, being known by means of the foregoing calculations, let us now estimate her mobilized forces at the beginning of the fifth year of war, August, 1918. In Mr. Gerard's book. My Four Years in Germany, he says that there were 12 millions of soldiers mobilized by William II when he declared war. As Germany had a population of about 68 millions in 1914, this would mean 17^ per cent of the people. The French ex- generalissimo. General de Lacroix, estimated the whole German mobilization at 13 millions of men, say 19 per cent of the population. According to law every German is liable to military service from 17 years to the end of the 45th year of age. Compare the official figures of the French census of 1910 showing that the male population from 17 to 45 inclu- sive represents 21 in 100 of the French people, the general average in most countries — we can therefore reckon the entire German mobiliza- tion at 20 per cent of the inhabitants, which PANGERMANY'S MILITARY STRENGTH 107 gives us 13,600,000 men, it being more prudent to put the German strength at rather more than less. This figure of 13,600,000 men mo- bihzed is very conservative, as it relates to the number of inhabitants in 1914 — 68 millions. In the last four years the German population has increased on an average of 636,335 a year, deducting war losses, of which we will speak later. These figures are taken from the Al- manack de Gotha, 1914, page 531, above quoted (see page 103). In 1918, then, Germany contained 70,016,675 inhabitants. Hence, taking as a basis the mobilization of 20 in 100 on the round number of 68 millions of people in 1914, we are prob- ably if anything short of the truth. In this number of 13,600,000 men are in- cluded, of course, soldiers on the various fronts, and those in the innumerable service depart- ments of all kinds of the German army. This lump sum of 13,600,000 has been modi- fied in two ways. First, it has been diminished by war losses. Secondly, these losses have been partially compensated for by the German annual recruitment. Let us consider the value of each of these factors. According to an authority which I am bound to hold as particularly trustworthy. 108 AN ENDURING VICTORY on the 1st of June, 1918, the German loss may be estimated by the use of the following data. Figures carefully collated state their loss to have been exactly 3,400,000 on April 1st, 1917. Add to this the losses from April to the 31st of December, 1917. Battles of the Aisne, Flanders, etc., say 1,100,000 men, which brings the total on January 1st, 1918, up to about 4,500,000. By June 1st of this year, the list was estimated at 300,000 — making 4,800,- 000 men; then we must include the sick and wounded, a constant figure estimated at about 500,000. Putting all these together, according to those in a position to know best, we reach the total of a loss of 5,300,000 men to Ger- many by the 1st of June, 1918. We might add subsequent losses incident to our victorious counter-ojffensive since July 15th, but from the 1st of June to the 1st of August data are lacking for an exact computa- tion, and, on the other hand, the problem be- fore us consists in the attempts to ascertain the average annual loss of Germany. Relying on the authoritative sources of information above mentioned, we have brought our esti- mates to the 1st of June, 1918, and from this point we can reach an average for the four PANGERMANY'S MILITARY STRENGTH 109 years of war within a month, or very nearly exact. Now let us see how much the annual levies of Germany have compensated for her losses. These annual contingents (see page 105) amount to about — 733,000 men in 1915 740,000 men in 1916 747,00.0 men in 1917 754,000 men in 1918 a total of 2,974,000 men for the four years of war. The mobilized strength of Germany in 1914 was 13,600,000 men Ascertained losses resulting from the war, June 1st, 1916 5,300,000 men reduce this to 8,300,000 men Four military levies, 1915-1916-1917-1918, in round numbers 2,900,000 men brmg this to 11,200,000 men Eleven millions of men mobilized were, therefore, at the disposal of Germany at the opening of the fifth year of war. The modera- tion and probability of this statement can be verified by the following reasoning. The Al- lied High Command and Senator Berenger, of the Committee on Effectives of the French 110 AN ENDURING VICTORY Senate, in their figures estimated the num- ber of Germans on all the western front at 7 millions in June, 1918. From our estimates that would leave only 4 millions to carry on all the work in the interior of Germany, to supply the armies in Russia and Turkey, and secure extended communication in hostile dis- tricts. For all these purposes 4 millions is rather an insufficient number, so our calcula- tions are probably not too high. We can now see clearly two causes for the misapprehension of the Allies as to Germany's military resources. First mistake: The Ger- man annual contingent is usually reckoned at 400,000 men, but according to German statistics (page 103) it ought to be about 700,000. Second mistake: German losses on June 1st, 1918, are counted as positively 5,300,000 men, without reflecting that, if this figure is right with regard to the total popu- lation of Germany, it is not so when it is compared with the figures of the initial mobilization. It is important to remember that the length of the war feeds the war, that is, four annual military contingents have filled up in a great measure the gaps made by losses in the German army. Our task is to destroy the men who compose this army faster than PANGERMANY'S MILITARY STRENGTH 111 they can be replaced by the German people. It is wrong, then, to speak of the absolute German loss (5,300,000 on the 1st of June, 1918), for this implies a corresponding dimi- nution in the mobihzed forces of Germany, which is not the state of the case. Her strength being kept up by annual enlistments, her real losses after four years of war would be: 5,300,- 000 less 2,900,000 recruits, giving 2,400,000 men. Keeping in mind the comparison with the amount of the initial mobilization, the actual loss of the German army to August, 1918, was in round numbers only a fourth of that num- ber, say 600,000 men a year, a very much lower figure than is generally allowed. This number of men annually lost, if ad- mitted as right, accounts for much that was obscure in the evolution of the war, and ex- plains the disappointments of the Allies at finding superior forces always before them, contrary to their calculations. These figures also prove the falsity of Colonel Repington's theories, for he has always maintained that Germany can be completely conquered, driven out in the west, and forced to yield central and eastern Europe, as well as Turkey. To this end he would pursue a concentrated war of attrition on the western front, destroying 112 AN ENDURING VICTORY successively and surely the German effective force, and by this means arriving at a complete victory for the Allies. The weakness of this conception must be made clear by the fact that it was the victorious offensive of the Allies in the Balkans which compelled the German General Staff to evacuate more quickly France and Belgium. If any doubt remains let us remember that if Germany has lost 600,000 men a year, she has also reached great results, for this sacri- fice, combined with her political strategy, has gained for her the use and control of the wealth of three-fourths of Europe and a part of Asia. The Allies, on the other hand, underestimating the importance of the eastern front, neglected for four years the great strategic possibilities of a campaign on the Danube, and thus de- prived themselves of the resources of Russia and the Balkans, which they controlled at the outset. They have been, for this reason, blockaded in eastern Europe, and obliged to bring from Australia and America at great expense most of the food and raw material of which they stand in need. Again, in pro- portion to her first mobilized army, Germany has lost 600,000 men a year, but the war map (see page 14) shows how nearly she has ap- PANGERMANY'S MILITARY STRENGTH 113 proached to the Pangermanist standard, and also that she has inflicted on her adversaries losses equal to her own. This cannot be denied, for we know the Russians lost many more men than the Germans; the French losses have not been made public, but we know that in April, 1918, there were more French prisoners in Germany than there were Germans in France, which shows at the very least that the French have certainly lost pro- portionately more than the Germans. It is not easy to demonstrate, therefore, that we can gain the victory through the exhaustion of Germany's man-power, since it is proved that the military and political strategy finally carried out by the Allies in the Balkans has accomplished in a few days results which four years of persistent effort on the western front could not secure. III. The figures given by our deductions: 13,600,- 000 for the whole mobilized German army, and 700,000 for its probable war contingent, being much higher than those generally accepted by the Entente, are of a nature to cause great surprise and raise objections. A profound 114 AN ENDURING VICTORY scrutiny of these figures is therefore not only needful but indispensable, for if finally it is well established that they certainly approxi- mate to the truth it will demonstrate a fact of great value to the Entente, of which the practi- cal importance will appear logically at the end of this verification. In order to go to the root of the analysis of our figures, I will review my statements from the beginning, following an en- tirely different method, by means of which the results of the first can be checked. First, I will prove that a grave error has been most certainly made by the Allies in their calculations of Ger- man man-power. Second, I will point out the different objections likely to present themselves to the mind of my readers, and present the an- swers which can be given. 1st. The Misapprehension of the Allies AS TO the Annual German Contingent IS Certain and Important. The number of 400,000 men for Germany's annual contingent is generally accepted by the Allies. On June 10th, 1918, an article ap- peared in the Paris Temps by Lieutenant d'Entraygues, in which, speaking of the Ger- man class of 1920, which in June, 1918, was in PANGERMANY'S MILITARY STRENGTH 115 the Kaiser's instruction-camps, he said: "This class will yield an effective of 400,000 men." On the 7th of September, 1918, the New York Times published a despatch by an American correspondent in Paris, who had evidently gained his information in France. He says: "What the American factor now means may be judged from one fact. During the month of August 400,000 American soldiers landed in France. This number is as nearly as possible equivalent to the whole German 1920 class, on which there is no doubt that the enemy has been very largely counting to compensate him for the enormous cost in man-power which the Allies are causing him at present." Now we will show why it is quite impossible that the German class of 1920 should amount to only 400,000 men. The figures of LoebeWs Jahresberichte, on which I have based all my calculations, are to be found in a pamphlet called The Military Situation of all Nations, published in 1914, before the war, by Berger- Levrault, the foremost French military pub- lisher, whose technical works are brought out with the assistance of qualified officers. To demonstrate that I have made no mistake, either in the sources or the conclusions drawn from the figures which formed the starting-point 116 AN ENDURING VICTORY ALLEMAQNB 7 fls ne le soat g^n^ralement que pour une seule pferiode Dans la landwehr du 2» ban et dans le landsturm, il n'est plus fait aucune convocation. 11 importe de remarquer que les diverses regies qui pr6c6dent hb sont pas absolues ni imperatives; ce qui caractferise essentieJlement les lois de recrute- ment enAllemagne, c'est leurgrande 61asticitfe et,en m6me temps, le souci predominant de rijit6r6t mili- taire. les ressources: considerables et toujours crois- santes du recrutement permettent de m6nager, dans une large mesure, la population civile, tout en n'in- corporant dans les troupes que des jeunes gens parfaitement aptes an service anii6. Aussi I'autorite militaire jouit-elle de la latitude la plus complete dans Vexamen des cas d'ajoumement, d^exclusion et de reforme prevus par la loi, Vajoumemetit peut resulter, en premier lieu, d*une aptitude physique incomplete ; il ne peut 6tre prolonge au dela de trois ans. 11 peut aussi etre pro- nonce, sUr la demande des interesses ou de leur famUlfe, en faveur ; \? des soutiens indispensables of my calculations, I will reproduce photograph- ically the essential passages of this pamphlet, showing: 1st. That according to German military law adjournment of service can only last three years. 2d. That the figures on which I rely are really taken from LoeheWs Jahresberichte, which is held to be the most authoritative German publication. If, therefore, Germany had declared war in 1910, without counting young men who had presented themselves in advance, or those she PANGERMANY'S MILITARY STRENGTH 117 8 fiTAT MILITAIRE DE TOXJTES LES NATIONS t6s physiques ou morales ; mais les jeunes gens qui ont cherche a se soustraire a robligatiou du service par mutilation ou autrement sont vers6s dans les sections de travailleurs, (Pour le m6canisme et le fonctionnement du service de RECRDTEMJENT cu Allcmagne, se reporter d ce mot dans le corps du Biciionnaire.) Voici, maintenant, un aperQu des r6sultats du re- crutement pour Fannie 1910, extraits des LcebeWs Jahresherichte (pour 1911 : publics an printemps 1912), en rappelant que ces operations embrassent non seulement les hommes dei la classe incorporable, tnais encore les nombreux ajourn^s des classes pr6- c^dentes : Jeunes gens ayani pris part'^aux operations du recrutement. .....■.......*«.. 1.245.363 donl: BxcIms CUnwurdige). ...,». 890 R6form6s (Untaugliche) , ,.. *. , . 34,067 Ajouraes , . . . .• 715.952 Aydflt devancd I'appol. . . . . , 39.960 l)^Clax6sbonSr . . -. . . * .-. . 454.484 could make up out of her reforme list, she could have utilized in the various branches of her mobilized army: 1st. Men fit for service 454,484 men 2d. One-third of 715,952. This figure, accord- ing to German law, can only include 3 classes of adjourned, equal, therefore, to 238,650 men Total 693,134 men If, in 1910, Germany, which then had but 65 millions of inhabitants, could raise a war contingent of about 693,000 men, how can it lis AN ENDURING VICTORY be believed that in 1918, when Germany, from the recruiting standpoint, has 70 millions of in- habitants, and forms her classes not at 20 but at 17 years of age — that is, without having to take account of the deaths between 17 and 19 inclusive — should have a class of only 400,000 men, that is, about 293,000 less than the war class of 1910 ? It is impossible that this should be true. A serious mistake has therefore been made. It is hard to explain logically, because, as we have just seen, the figures which prove it were published in France, even before the war. The only explanation of this extraordinary miscon- ception is that it is of the same nature as those held by the Entente regarding many other problems — the Bulgar question, the question about the King of Greece, the question of Aus- tria-Hungary, the Bolshevists — all questions on which for a long time the Allies were misled by superficial preconceived ideas, lacking proof, and which events have demonstrated to be as contrary to facts as to the interests of the Entente. The problem now is to discuss thor- oughly the extent of the error committed, and in what it consists. PANGERMANY'S MILITARY STRENGTH 119 2d. Objections and Replies. 1st Objection, — ^The man-power of Germany (70 millions of inhabitants) cannot be greater than that of the Allies put together (France 40 millions, England 46, Italy 36, United States 100), etc. Answer, — Certainly this is true, but we must compare, not the man-power of the Allies only as against that of Germany, but the number of Allied soldiers able to serve in Europe, op- posed to the man-power of all the Central Powers, as, since the war, they form a group of forces directed by Berlin, to the advantage of Germany, who without them must have yielded long ago. By this comparison alone can be discerned which are the weak points of the effectives of Germany's allies, on which the Entente should consequently bring pressure to bear. The great successes achieved since the Entente finally decided to attack Bulgaria, show the absolute necessity of this method of pro- cedure. M Objection,— The figures of 13,600,000 men, which we found to represent the number of the entire mobilized German army, and that of 120 AN ENDURING VICTORY 700,000 for the German contingent, are so much larger than those generally accepted that they cannot be correct. Answer. — It is unfortunate not only regard- ing the German effectives that considerable errors, reaching 50 per cent, have been made by the Entente on questions nevertheless of capital importance for the winning of the war. For instance, when the war began the opinion prevailed in dominant circles of western Europe that Germany had only 50 army corps. Now it is a fact that she began the fight with 100, that is with 50 more, the existence of which was not even suspected. This was clearly recog- nized, particularly in several articles which appeared in France about two years ago, there- fore authorized by the censors. The error, very serious at that time, was in this case of 50 per cent. Granting the above, it is not im- possible, a priori, that, instead of estimating the annual German contingent at about 700,- 000 men, it should have been wrongly placed at only 400,000. 3d Objection. — It is improbable, a priori, that Germany's man-power should be esti- mated at 13,600,000 fighting men. Answer. — It is absolutely necessary to come PANGERMANY'S MILITARY STRENGTH 121 to an understanding as to the meaning one should give to the expression man-power, for it seems to be imperfectly understood in the Entente. Many of the Allies, in fact, imagine that the man-power of a country consists alone in its ability to place so many combatants on the firing-line. This idea of man-power is incom- plete and gives rise to serious mistakes. An army is not made up of fighting men only. At the present day, the mobilized army of a state comprises innumerable departments; the fight- ing units, services immediately behind the front, home services, war factories, working of mines necessary to the war, sometimes even agricultural production, and numbers of bu- reaus. Now, all these services, being indis- pensable to the working of the army, in consequence are equally necessary to victory. Soldiers fighting at the front are therefore only a part of the man-power required, and their number is itself the reflex and the result of the strength of the organizations of non- combatants in the rear. If, further, we should attempt to estimate Germany's man-power by counting simply the number of fighting men, we should find our- selves certainly mistaken. On the one hand. 122 AN ENDURING VICTORY the Allies' information services had to be made out of the whole cloth since the war, and have therefore inevitable defects; and on the other, the Germans are past masters in the art of dissimulation. The result is that all the iden- tifications that the Allies can make of German divisions fighting on the diflPerent fronts, only reach an approximation, and leave unreckoned elements of the enemy's strength, which it is indispensable to take into account. For all these reasons, the man-power of a nation is represented by the whole number of men it is able to mobilize, no matter to what service these men are attached. I have taken great care to specify (see page 107) that the figure of 13,600,000 included, of course, the fighting men on the various fronts and those in the innumerable service departments of all kinds of the German army. iih Objection. — Ought not the number of 13,600,000 to be reduced by 15 to 20 per cent to allow for these reformes? Answer. — In Germany the number of these reformes must be much less than the above percentage. The war has been so premedi- tated and the study of military things by the General Staflf has gone on for such a length of PANGERMANY'S MILITARY STRENGTH 123 time that it is only natural that of all the bel- ligerents Germany should know how to get the best results out of the men who come up for mobilization. The system by which mo- bilized men are utilized in Germany is quite unlike that which obtained in France, for in- stance, at least during the two first years of the war. In France, through a false notion of equality and of the modern needs of war, in the begin- ning, they tried to act on the principle that each mobilized man should be exposed to the same danger, no matter what might be his par- ticular aptitudes. Intellectual power of the first rank which could have done much toward a speedy victory, was sacrificed to this idea, to the great detriment of the common cause. Thus, for example, Jean Gravier, who was probably the Frenchman who knew most about Serbia, because he had long made a special study of the country on the spot, was recalled to France by the mobilization, and killed as a sergeant before Souchez, when he might have rendered invaluable services in the Balkans. The forces thus uselessly sacrificed have been very great, and it was only toward the third year of the war that France began to remedy this fatal error. 124 AN ENDURING VICTORY If Jean Gravier had been a German he would have been assigned as technical adviser to the Staff charged to prepare for the inva- sion of Serbia, because in Germany, from the outbreak of hostilities, the utilization of mobil- ized men has been arranged on the principle that each man should be employed, not neces- sarily where there are the most risks to be run, but where his personal aptitudes would allow him to render the best service with a view to victory. The application of this principle explains why mobilized Germans, 30 years old, strong and well, have been kept away from the firing-line and attached at home or abroad to propaganda service, from which the Berlin government has derived so much advantage. Striking examples are the cases of Von Papen and Boy-Ed, who were the German officers retained as long as possible in the United States because Berlin considered that they were much more useful to the German cause in this way than if they had been killed on the western front. This principle carried out explains why the Germans make reformes of a relatively small number of men among those subject to mobil- ization. It is, in fact, clear that, with the PANGERMANY'S MILITARY STRENGTH 125 exception of those seriously ill, any man merely weak or delicate who is employed in civil life can be used in some sedentary service in one of the innumerable departments of the Ger- man army. The number of those reformes varies according to age, as is shown by the following table drawn up according to the official figures of German mortality for 1901 (see page 134). Out of 100 Number of Out of 100 Number of Germans of Deaths Germans of Deaths 1 year 20.23 24 years 0.50 2 years 3.98 25 i( 0.50 3 a 1.49 26 a 0.51 4 t( 0.94 27 it 0.52 5 it 0.69 28 it 0.52 6 « 0.52 29 it 0.53 7 it 0.42 30 it 0.54 8 (( 0.35 31 it 0.55 9 « 0.30 32 ti 0.57 10 « 0.26 33 it 0.59 11 a 0.24 34 it 0.62 12 « 0.22 35 it 0.66 13