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STEPS TO VICTORY 
 
 By 
 
 DAVID F. HOUSTON 
 
 Secretary of Agriculture 
 
 Address Delivered Before the Economic Club, 
 New York City, December 6, 1917 
 
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 STEPS TO VICTORY. 1 
 
 THIS IS a day of big things, of staggering questions, of un- 
 precedented undertakings, and of incredible happenings. 
 It is almost true that the incredible is the only believable 
 and the impossible the only attainable. One can not be 
 shocked or surprised or diffident any more. Therefore I enter- 
 tained with complacency the suggestion that I meet you here 
 and discuss rhe theme of the evening. 
 
 It is unnecessary for me to confess that I am not wise 
 enough to dispose of this subject to your satisfaction or to my 
 own. I am not equal to it; but I have the satisfaction of know- 
 ing that all of you are not, and even all of us at this head table 
 are not. Perhaps a unified allied council may discover, indi- 
 cate, and lake all the necessary steps, but I am reasonably 
 certain that nothing less will suffice. 
 
 There is one thing I like about the subject. It evidences 
 the right spirit, the requisite determination, and a com- 
 mendable and justifiable optimism. It assumes that we must 
 and shall win, and win without undue delay. It implies that, 
 having put our hand to the plow, we will not turn back, or 
 even look back, and that we refuse to entertain the suggestion 
 of possible failure. 
 
 First and Last Steps to Early Victory. 
 
 A clear, fixed, unalterable purpose to attain the ends we had 
 in mind in accepting Germany's challenge, based on a thorough 
 appreciation of the meaning of this struggle and a willingness 
 to make all necessary sacrifices,' I regard as the first and last 
 most essential steps to an early victory. This war is a test 
 of the spirit of nations, even more than of their material 
 resources and strength. The issue of it depends on the relative 
 intelligence, moral qualities and attitude of the people engaged. 
 Never before has there been a Avar which so effectively de- 
 
 1 This subject was suggested by the officers of the Economic Club of 
 New York City and it will be noted that the address was delivered before 
 the club on December 6, 1917. 
 
 m*v it im 
 
4 STEPS TO VICTORY. 
 
 mantled the highest exhibition of intellectual capacity and also 
 the unfaltering display of will power and moral courage. 
 No more important duty confronts the leaders of thought every- 
 where than that of informing the national mind and of sus- 
 taining and confirming its spirit and purpose. Public opinion 
 must be anchored and the motive for terrible sacrifices be 
 firmly fixed. No matter what the difficulties, no matter what 
 the seriousness of the strain, there can be no faltering. Civ- 
 ilization can not afford to entertain the thought of defeat. 
 The challenge of Germany went to the roots of freedom and 
 of national existence. There is no halfway house. ' Proposals 
 to parley with an unbeaten enemy, who proclaims himself 
 victor, indicate nothing less than a willingness to admit de- 
 feat. They spell relaxation of effort and demoralization. They 
 mean assent to Prussia's century-old policy of extending her 
 medieval patrimony by force and of gradually imposing her 
 will on the world. They mean nothing more than a truce, "a 
 truce with usury," a mere interruption of the strain and its 
 assumption at a later day with interest compounded. All 
 history points to this conclusion. 
 
 The Pacifist a Constant Menace. 
 
 No greater dangers confront democracy than those which 
 may arise from drifting, from mental or moral fatigue, from , 
 confused advice, from entertaining dangerous fallacies, and 
 indulging in friendly optimistic sentiments toward an implac- 
 able enemy. These are the dangers which extreme partizan- 
 ship and pacifism breed. The pacifist is a constant menace; 
 the mere partisan a criminal; and especially obnoxious is 
 the vain omniscient partisan to whom the future is an open 
 book, who alternately rags the public and assaults its enemies, 
 censures everybody and everything except himself, indulges 
 in irresponsible criticisms and misrepresentations, causing 
 unwarranted popular confusion and unrest, generally giving 
 aid and comfort to the enemy. These things must be abated 
 through force of an educated public opinion if possible, but, 
 in any event, must be abated. 
 
steps to victory. 5 
 
 People Willing to Make Sacrifices. 
 
 The indications to date are numerous that the people of this 
 Nation as a whole have an effective appreciation of the mean- 
 ing of the struggle and a willingness to make large sacrifices. 
 It is only necessary to go among them to realize the strength 
 of their sentiments and determination. EveryAvhere I have 
 been impressed with the sound sense and fine spirit of the 
 great majority of our citizens. Id respect to patriotic atti- 
 tude, I have confirmed my suspicion that there were no geo- 
 graphical boundaries to it, no North, no South, no East, no 
 West, and that no section has a monopoly of intelligence or 
 patriotism. 
 
 We may also judge conclusively the state of mind of the 
 people by the action of Congress. This body represents public 
 opinion. It does not adopt and pursue a course of action if 
 the people are hostile. In six months, that body has given 
 to popular sentiment an expression without parallel in par- 
 liamentary annals. The first great step toward winning this 
 war was taken when the President of the United States, on 
 April 2, in advising Congress to declare the existence of a state 
 of war with Germany, pointed out what war would involve and 
 demand. The striking thing about that historic address was 
 not so much the advice it contained, momentous as that was, 
 but rather the clear perception it revealed of the magnitude 
 of the task before the Nation. 
 
 Response op Congress. 
 
 The response of Congress was prompt and adequate. It 
 authorized and directed the President to employ the entire 
 Navy and military forces of the Union and pledged to the 
 Government all the resources of the Nation to bring the con- 
 flict to a successful termination. The task of making good this 
 pledge was entered upon and discharged in such manner as 
 to startle many at home and to amaze even foreigners who had 
 become habituated to prodigious operations. I well remember 
 some characteristic remarks of Lord Northcliffe during his 
 visit to Washington. Suddenly stopping and turning to me, 
 he said: "Am I dreaming?" I asserted that he did not look 
 
6 STEPS TO VICTORY. 
 
 like a dreamer. He continued: "I am told that Congress de- 
 clared war on the 6th of April, authorized the Secretary of the 
 Treasury to borrow approximately eleven and a half billion 
 dollars, enacted a new tax law designed to raise two and a 
 half billions in addition to ordinary revenues, appropriated 
 or authorized nine billions for the Army and Navy, over a 
 billion for ships, with a maximum authorization of nearly 
 two billions six hundred and forty millions for airplanes, 
 credits to the allies of seven billions, a total of actual appro- 
 priations and authorizations of twenty-one billions; gave power 
 to commandeer plants, ships, and materials; provided for con- 
 scription, which England had not fully resorted to and Canada 
 had not then adopted; that there bad been registered or en- 
 listed nearly ten and a half million men; that Pershing w;>s 
 in France and naval vessels were in Europe; that the food- 
 production and food-control measures had been passed.; and 
 that authority had been given for the control of exports and 
 iir ports and of priorities." 
 
 He repeated: "Am I dreaming or is it true?" I replied 
 that unless I was dreaming it was true. He said : "I can't 
 believe it." I told him I could believe it but that I could not 
 comprehend it. It is difficult now to do so. The figures even 
 for particular items are beyond comprehension. Think of 
 them. For ships an authorization of a billion nine hundred 
 millions, nearly double our former Federal budget; for avia- 
 tion, six hundred and forty millions; for torpedo-boat de- 
 stroyers, three hundred and fifty millions; for army subsist- 
 ence and regular quartermaster supplies, eight hundred and 
 sixty millions, for clothing and camp and garrison equipment, 
 five hundred and eighty-one millions; for transportation, five 
 hundred and ninety-seven millions ; for medicine, one hundred 
 millions; for mobile artillery, one hundred and fifty-eight 
 millions; for ordnance stores and supplies, seven hundred and 
 seventeen millions; for heavy guns, eight hundred and fifty 
 millions; and for ammunition for the same, one billion eight 
 hundred and seven millions. 
 
 The Federal Reserve Law and the War. 
 
 Clearly Congress for the time being had taken the necessary 
 steps to make good its pledge of placing the resources of the 
 
STEPS TO VICTORY. i 
 
 country at the disposal of the Government. At the same time 
 it created or authorized the creation of essential administra- 
 tive agencies. In respect to administrative agencies impor- 
 tant developments had already taken place. Most striking and 
 significant of all was the enactment of the Federal reserve 
 law and the creation of the Reserve Board and banks. This 
 action obviously was taken without suspicion that the world 
 was on the verge of war and that we would soon be involved. 
 It was taken to insure better banking conditions in time of 
 peace, and especially to enable us to weather financial storms. 
 Before the reserve act was passed the Nation, as you well know, 
 had no adequate banking system. Its financial arrangements 
 had never been able to withstand strain either in peace or war. 
 In each of our considerable struggles we had promptly sus 
 pended specie payments, with all its attendant disabilities 
 and burdens. But now, after four years of world financial 
 strain, such as no financier dreamed it possible for the world 
 to bear — I might say for six years, because there was a world- 
 wide financial chill for at least two years before 1914, due to 
 apprehension of war and to the undoubted financial prepara- 
 tions made by the central powers — after this long strain and 
 . the shock of the last six months, our finances are sound and 
 we are proceeding in orderly fashion. For this reason, and 
 because of our obligation to extend liberal credits, it is not 
 extravagant to say that no greater contribution to the winning 
 of this war has been or will be made than through the passage 
 of the Federal reserve act in 1913 and the successful establish- 
 ment of the system well in advance of trouble. 
 
 Organization of Consulting Boards. 
 
 ■ Steps toward preparedness in respect to other highly essen- 
 tial interests were taken much before war was declared. Their 
 significance was not grasped by the public at the time. For 
 the most part they have been overlooked. Pursuant to an act 
 of Congress of March 3, 1915, two years before the war, the 
 President appointed the National Advisory Committee for 
 Aeronautics, composed of the most eminent students of the 
 subject. In connection with the work of this committee and in 
 part through its labors has been developed our enormous avia- 
 
8 STEPS TO VICTORY. 
 
 tion program and expansion. Likewise, during the summer of 
 1915, the Secretary of the Navy organized the admirable Naval 
 Consulting Board with Edison as chairman and 2 representa- 
 tives elected by each of 11 great engineering and scientific 
 societies. Furthermore, on September 7, 1916, after a long 
 and unfortunate delay caused by unintelligent opposition, the 
 shipping act was passed, creating a board with large powers 
 and appropriating fifty millions of dollars for the construc- 
 tion, purchase, charter, and operation of merchant vessels 
 suitable for naval auxiliaries in time of war. This was the be- 
 ginning of the present huge shipbuilding program whose 
 speedy execution is of paramount importance. 
 
 The Council of National Defense. 
 
 But that is not all in the way of early preparedness. On 
 August 29, 1916, the Council of National Defense, consisting 
 of six heads of departments and of an advisory commission of 
 seven, nominated by the council and appointed by the Presi- 
 dent, was created. The council wa3 charged with the duty of 
 mobilizing military and naval resources, studying the location, 
 utilization, and coordination of railroads, waterways, and 
 highways, increase of domestic production for civil and mili- 
 tary purposes, the furnishing of requisite information to man- 
 ufacturers, and the creation of relations which would render 
 possible the immediate concentration of national resources. 
 
 The creation of the Council of National Defense was not 
 the result of sudden inspiration. It was directly suggested by 
 the activities of two very important groups of individuals. In 
 March, 1916, a committee from the five great medical and sur- 
 gical associations, having an aggregate membership of from 
 70,000 to 100,000, was formed. It met in Chicago on April 14, 
 1916, and tendered to the President the services of the medical 
 men of the Nation. In March, also, representatives of five 
 engineering organizations, with a membership of 35,000, met 
 in New York and formulated a plan to make an inventory of 
 the country's producing and manufacturing resources. The 
 thought and purposes of these two bodies were brought to the 
 attention of the President and their consideration resulted 
 in recommendations for the creation of the Council of National 
 Defense. 
 
steps to victory. 9 
 
 New Agencies Created. 
 
 Thus, a number of months before war was declared agencies 
 had been created covering, at least in outline, many of the es- 
 sential new activities. Seven of these of peculiar importance 
 had begun to find themselves and to chart their course. I 
 refer to the Shipping Board, the aviation, the medical, the 
 manufacturing, the transportation, the munitions, and the la- 
 bor committees. When war came these bodies greatly speeded 
 up their work. Others were created — among them, the Food 
 Administration, the Fuel Administration, the War Trade 
 Council, the War Trade Board, and the War Industries Board. 
 
 The War Industries Board. 
 
 The last is of unique importance, and yet its work is little 
 understood. Its members are the direct representatives of the 
 Government and of the public interest. The tasks of the board 
 are stupendous. It acts as a clearing house for the war indus- 
 tries' needs of the Government, determines the most effective 
 ways of meeting them, the best means of increasing production 
 (including the creation of new facilities), the priority of pub- 
 lic needs and also of transportation. It considers price factors, 
 the labor aspects of industrial operations, large purchases of 
 commodities where market values are greatly affected, and 
 makes appropriate recommendations to the Secretaries of War 
 and Navy. Judge Lovett is in immediate charge of priorities, 
 Mr. Baruch of raw materials, and Mr. Brookings of finished 
 products. These three constitute a commission for the approval 
 of purchases by the Allies in this country from credits made 
 through the Secretary of the Treasury. I need only remind 
 you of the items of the appropriations for supplies, ordnance, 
 and other things to impress you with the magnitude of 
 the board's task. Its machinery is not yet perfect, but it is 
 working, and I am sure that no step will be omitted to make 
 it as nearly adequate as possible. If a better scheme can be 
 devised, it should be promptly adopted. It is obviously of the 
 highest importance that the resources of the Nation, made 
 
10 STEPS TO VICTORY. 
 
 available by Congress, should be administered with the utmost 
 skill and effectiveness. 
 
 Mobilization of Talent. 
 
 No machinery is of great value unless it is properly manned. 
 The right sort of men is the first requisite of any kind of suc- 
 cessful enterprise. I believe this requisite has been satisfied 
 and that the Nation is mobilizing for this emergency additional 
 men of as high character and fine talent as it possesses. Where 
 so many are involved special mention is invidious, and I cite 
 the names of the following merely as samples : Willard, Gom- 
 pers, Baruch, Rosenwald, Coffin, Martin, and Godfrey ; Hoover, 
 Garfield, Vanderlip, Davison, Vauclain; McCormick, Thomas 
 D. Jones, Lovett, Brookings, and Frayne; Dr. Anna Shaw, 
 Mrs. Philip Moore, Mrs. Cowles, Mrs. Catt, Miss Wetmore, 
 Mrs. Lamar, Mrs. Funk, Mrs. McCormick, and Miss Nestor; 
 and Drs. Simpson, Crile, Janeway, Flexner, Vaughn, Mayo, 
 and Welch — all fine types of American citizenship, only a few 
 of the hundreds working in their respective spheres in the 
 Nation and in the States, having no selfish end to serve, work- 
 ing with an eye single to the public interest and to the winning 
 of this war, giving freely their services in as fine spirit as the 
 Nation ever witnessed, revealing the real strength of democ- 
 racy. 
 
 So much, and perhaps more than enough, as to the congres- 
 sional pledge of resources and the creation of machinery. Let 
 us turn to other matters which I am sure you have in mind. 
 I know you are asking what is being accomplished. What are 
 the results? Obviously, some of them it would be inadvisable 
 to indicate. Others I can only hint at. For the most part they 
 have been detailed to the public through one agency or another 
 from time to time. I shall try to summarize. 
 
 The Army Cantonments. 
 
 The Nation has to-day in all branches of its military services 
 under arms and in training over 1,800,000 men, some in France, 
 some on the ocean, and others in camps or at their posts of 
 duty at home. Approximately ten and a half millions of men 
 have been enlisted in the Regular Army, incorporated in the 
 
STEPS TO VICTORY. 11 
 
 National Guard, or registered under the draft act. Those 
 registered but not yet called out are being classified on the 
 basis of national need. Rapid headway has been made in train- 
 ing subordinate officers, and the gigantic undertaking of pro- 
 viding suitable quarters or camps for the men in training has 
 practically been finished. The Nation now has 35 Army can- 
 tonments— 16 for the National Army, 16 for the National 
 Guard, 2 at points of embarkation, and 1 for the Quarter- 
 masters' Training School — all complete in respect to buildings 
 or tents, lighting, sanitary arrangements, and temporary roads. 
 The National Army cantonments were completed within the 
 time set by the General Staff. What this involved can not 
 easily be set forth. It entailed the selection of sites, the plan- 
 ning of buildings, the securing of responsible contractors, the 
 mobilization of labor, the assembling of materials, and the con- 
 struction of modern hospitals and roads. These camps alone 
 cover 150,000 acres and called for the use of 75,000 carloads of 
 materials, including 500,000,000 feet of lumber. Their cost 
 was approximately $128,000,000. The work was begun June 15 
 and the finishing touches were put on by December 1. In 
 addition 16 canvas camps for the National Guard were com- 
 pleted at a cost of approximately $48,000,000. Thus local 
 habitations were quickly provided for the new army, superior 
 in respects to ventilation and conveniences to the best practice 
 of Europe. 
 
 Five instrumentalities or factors highly necessary for victory, 
 it may be asserted without hesitation, are destroyers — the 
 enemies of the submarine — airplanes, ships, medical service, 
 and food. What of these? 
 
 To Fight the Submarine. 
 
 Of the first, the torpedo-boat destroyers, all I may say is that 
 the construction program of the Navy contemplates 787 ships 
 of all types, at an estimated cost of $1,150,000,000, including 
 additional destroyers costing $350,000,000. The latter are to be 
 of uniform standard model, large and fast. Some are to be 
 built within 9 months and all within 18 months. This vast 
 and urgent undertaking required a great extension of building 
 
12 STEPS TO VICTORY. 
 
 facilities, and as private capital was unable or unwilling to 
 make the extensions the Government had to do so. When 
 completed, these plants belong to the Nation. I may add that 
 these destroyers will require thousands of men to man them, 
 but that they are being trained, and when the vessels are com- 
 pleted the crews will be ready. 
 
 Control of the Air. 
 
 The work for the control of the air grows apace. Of the 
 great aviation training fields, 17 in number, 2 are old, 1 is 
 rebuilding, 7 were practically completed by September l,.and 
 7 others will be finished within two weeks. In addition there 
 are in operation to-day at leading universities 10 ground 
 schools giving preparatory instruction in flying. Finishing 
 courses are being given to our students in most of the allied 
 countries, and more than 30 experienced foreign air service 
 veterans have been loaned to us for duty in Washington and 
 elsewhere. The building program calls for 20,000 machines. 
 It will be expedited by reason of a great and interesting 
 achievement, that of a standardized engine, something which 
 no European nation has developed even after three and a half 
 years of war. This accomplishment is in line with the best 
 American traditions and was made with unique speed. What 
 standardization of the engine and of its parts means in respect 
 to speed and quantitative production, in repairs and economy 
 of materials, need not be dwelt upon. It has been estimated 
 that the service when in full strength will require a full force 
 of 110,000 officers and enlisted men, an army greater than our 
 regular military force of a few months ago. 
 
 Providing More Ships. 
 
 All agree that the enemy submarine must be destroyed. In 
 the meantime shipping sunk by them must be replaced. Eng- 
 land must not be starved. Supplies to all the allies must go 
 forward without interruption. Our own troops must be trans- 
 ported and provided with everything essential for effectiveness 
 and comfort, and domestic transportation of men and com- 
 
STEPS TO VICTORY. 13 
 
 modities be maintained and greatly increased. Furthermore, 
 commodities must be brought here from many distant places. 
 Therefore we must have ships, more ships, at once. Nothing 
 more urgent. How is this matter proceeding? In the first 
 place, the Shipping Board, on August 3, commandeered 426 
 vessels either in course of construction for domestic or foreign 
 account or contracted for, with a tonnage of over 3,000,000. 
 Thirty-three of these ships, with a tonnage of 257,000, have 
 been completed and released. Ex-German and Austrian ships 
 with a capacity of 750,000 tons have been taken over for Gov- 
 ernment use. The Fleet Corporation has contracted for 948 
 vessels with a total tonnage of 5,056,000, of which 375, with 
 a tonnage of one and a third million, are wooden; 58, with a 
 tonnage of 270,000, are composite; and 515, with a capacity 
 of 3,500,000, are steel. All these ships have an aggregate ton- 
 nage of 8,835,000, or nearly a million and a half tons greater 
 than that of the regular merchant marine of the Nation in 
 1916. Contracts for 610,000 tons additional are pending. The 
 total building program calls for over 10,000,000 tons, and it 
 is proposed that a considerable part of it shall be executed 
 by the end of 1918. The nature of this task may be more 
 easily appreciated when it is remembered that the construction 
 in the United States for 1916 did not exceed 400,000 tons and 
 that the average for the five years preceding was 350,000. At 
 present there are 100 yards building ships, exclusive of 20 
 building the commandeered vessels, and of these 100, 70 are 
 new. The policy of standardization has been pursued and five 
 classes of ships have been adopted. 
 
 Medical Organization. 
 
 I have already referred to the preliminary steps toward 
 medical organization. Further action was promptly taken. 
 An inventory was made of the medical resources of the Nation, 
 of doctors, nurses, and others who could be called by the 
 Surgeon General, and of hospitals and supplies. Courses in 
 modern military medicine and surgery for third and fourth 
 year students were formulated and adopted by 75 of the 95 
 medical schools in January, 1917. It was known that 80 per 
 cent of the instruments used in this country were made in 
 
14 STEPS TO VICTORY. 
 
 Germany. It was necessary to develop their production here, 
 and to facilitate this the first essential step was to introduce 
 standardization, to resort to staple articles. More liberal stand- 
 ards were authorized and the variety of types was greatly re- 
 duced. Instead of scores of kinds of scissors a dozen were 
 agreed upon. Instead of many sorts of needles, forceps, and 
 retractors, two, three, or four types were adopted. Manufac- 
 turers were given priority of materials and consequently full 
 military orders will be delivered in less than eight months. It 
 is illuminating that one concern, taking its chances, had manu- 
 factured according to specifications, by the time it was awarded 
 a contract, enough material to require 10 carloads of lumber 
 for packing. This was the result of the efforts of 75 of the 
 most eminent medical specialists of the Nation, working with 
 the military staff in contact with 250 leading manufacturers. 
 
 The peace strength of the medical forces of the Army was 531 
 and of the Navy 480. Now the Surgeon General of the Army 
 has in his regular force and in the new enrollment of physicians 
 actually accepting commissions 16,432, a number sufficient for 
 an army of two and one-third millions, and a dental force of 
 3,441, adequate for an army of 3,400,000. The Navy now has 
 1,795 medical officers, a number in excess of present needs. The 
 Red Cross has enrolled 15,000 trained nurses, organized 48 base 
 hospitals with 9,600 doctors, nurses, and enlisted men, 16 
 hospital units with smaller staffs to supplement the work of 
 the base hospitals, is furnishing supplies to 35 hospitals of all 
 sorts in France, and since May has raised over $100,000,000. 
 
 Organization of Agriculture. 
 
 What shall I say about the organization of agriculture for 
 the production of food, clothing, and other materials? It is 
 unnecessary to dwell upon the need of an adequate supply of 
 food for the civilians and soldiers of this Nation and also for 
 those of the nations with whom we are associated. When we 
 entered the war, this country was and had been facing an un- 
 satisfactory situation in respect to its supply of foods and 
 feedstuffs. The production in 1916 of the leading cereals was 
 comparatively low, aggregating 4.8 billions of bushels as 
 against 6 for 1915, 5 for 1!»14, and 4.9 for the five-year average. 
 The wheat crop had been strikingly small and it was certain 
 
STEPS TO VICTORY, 
 
 15 
 
 that on account of adverse weather conditions the output for 
 1917 would be greatly curtailed. The situation was no better 
 in respect to other conspicuously important commodities, such 
 as potatoes and meats. The need of action was urgent and 
 the appeal for direction insistent. The Nation looked for 
 guidance primarily to the Federal department and to the State 
 agencies which it had so liberally supported for many years. 
 It was a matter of great good fortune that the Nation had had 
 the foresight, generations before, in another time of national 
 stress, in 1862, to lay soundly the foundations of agriculture. 
 In respect to agencies working for the improvement of rural 
 life, the Nation was prepared. In point of efficiency, personnel, 
 and support it had establishments excelling those of any other 
 three nations combined, and a great body of alert farmers who 
 were capable of producing two or three times as much per unit 
 of labor and capital as the farmers of Europe. 
 
 Steps were quickly taken to speed up production. In a two- 
 day session at St. Louis the trained agricultural officers of the 
 country conceived and devised a program of legislation and 
 organization, the essential features of which have not been 
 successfully questioned, and the substantial part of which has 
 been enacted into law and set in operation. Initiative was 
 not wanting in any section of the Union. Effective organiza- 
 tions quickly sprang up in all the States and the services of 
 experts everywhere immediately were made available. The 
 response of the farmers was prompt and energetic. Weather 
 conditions for the spring season were favorable and the results 
 are that crop yields have been large and that the Nation is 
 able not only to feed itself but in considerable measure to 
 supply the needs of those with whom we are cooperating. 
 
 That the farmers of the Nation have generously responded 
 to the appeals for increased production, and that much has 
 been done to insure a large supply of foods and feedstntfs. 
 justifies no let-down in their activities or in those of all agri- 
 cultural agencies. On the contrary, even greater efforts must 
 be put forth in the coming months, if we are to meet fully 
 the civilian and military demands. There must be no break- 
 down on the farms, no failure of foods, feedstuffs, or clothing. 
 Especially must we have a more abundant supply of meats and 
 fats to replenish the stores of the long-suffering allies. 
 
16 steps to victory. 
 
 Difficulties Confronting Agriculture. 
 
 Many difficulties confront the agricultural forces. Fer- 
 tilizers are scarce. Farm machinery has advanced in price 
 and transportation is burdened. To secure an adequate sup- 
 ply of labor everywhere will demand our best energies. Espe- 
 cially serious to the farmer is the task of retaining on his 
 farms his regular year-round help. An army could not be 
 raised without taking men from every field of activity and 
 it would have been unfair to any class to have proposed its 
 complete exemption. The problem is a constructive one. Mere 
 complaint is useless. Our aim is to secure even greater pro- 
 duction from the labor on the farms; and it must be attained. 
 Farmers in the same community must cooperate with one 
 another more actively. Forms of labor not heretofore regu- 
 larly or fully utilized must be employed and plans for the 
 shifting of labor from places where the load has passed to 
 communities where there is urgent need must be perfected. 
 Whether more drastic action will be needed remains to be 
 seen. General conscription would present many difficulties. 
 Several things are certain. Relatively nonessential industries 
 must be prepared to release labor and capital for essential 
 undertakings ; and, either through State or Federal action, any 
 able-bodied individuals who can but will not do useful work 
 must be pressed into the service. 
 
 Unity in Action. 
 
 It would appear, then, that the courses we must follow, the 
 directions we must take to win victory, have been indicated 
 and charted. While corrections and extensions will be made, 
 I am confident that the important essential steps have been 
 taken and that success will come rather through steadying 
 and expediting these than through any novel enterprises. Un- 
 questionably the coordination of all domestic agencies, govern- 
 mental and private, must be perfected so that the Nation may 
 direct its great energies and resources with full effect against 
 the enemy. I am equally confident that the most "practicable 
 cooperation in counsel and action with the Governments now 
 at war with Germany" must be secured. What specific form 
 
STEPS TO VICTORY. 17 
 
 that shall take I am not wise enough to suggest; but that 
 there must be unity of policy and effort, the wisest utilization 
 of our combined resources, and the most skillful, strategical 
 handling of military and naval forces on the basis of inter- 
 national and not of particularistic interests under an unham- 
 pered, common control seems to admit of no manner of doubt. 
 Mistakes may be made even then, but not so many or as fateful 
 ones as may be made if there are as many programs as there 
 are nations involved. Campaigns can not otherwise be suc- 
 cessfully conducted and battles won against great powers 
 having the advantage of interior lines and of a single, absolute 
 directing mind. The solution of this problem is the present 
 pressing need for victory now or later. 
 
 Financial Burden Borne Now. 
 
 Furthermore, we must keep in the forefront of our thinking 
 the imperative necessity for maintaining the integrity and 
 soundness of our finances. To this end, it seems to me the 
 people of the Nation, after adjustments have been made to 
 changed industrial conditions and to the new revenue legis- 
 lation, must be prepared increasingly to meet the burdens of 
 this war through just and equitable taxation. If they can 
 be convinced of the plain truth, that the easiest way tem- 
 porarily- and ultimately to bear the financial burdens of war 
 is to meet them as they rise, as largely as possible through 
 taxation, the task will be relatively simple. This is a fact, 
 but not an obvious one. Centuries of unsound traditions and 
 many delusions stand in the way. There is the singular mis- 
 apprehension that by borrowing, the burden of waging a war 
 to that extent can be shifted to future generations. If this 
 were true, there would be no definable limit to the extent and 
 variety of war the present generation could wage. The truth 
 is that in a Nation like ours, not borrowing abroad, whether 
 control of wealth is secured through taxes on all or in part 
 through loans from the few, the people pay for the war as it 
 proceeds, and that if the books were closed at the end of the 
 war, the Nation would have paid for it. The iron, the steel, 
 the coal, the clothing, the shoes, the lumber, the ammunition, 
 the guns, and the ships secured by the Government are used 
 and destroyed at the time, and, for the most part, can not 
 
18 
 
 STEPS TO VICTORY. 
 
 later be enjoyed. By borrowing, a burden, it is true, is placed 
 on the people after the war, but it is a burden of restitution. 
 A credit relation is set up and an obligation on the part of 
 all is incurred to pay back with interest the wealth the Nation 
 has used. The main fact is that the wealth is taken and con- 
 sumed by the Nation at the time. The burden is borne while 
 the war is on. As I see it, there are only two really plausible 
 arguments that may be made for resorting mainly to loans — 
 one a psychological argument, namely, that the people do not 
 effectively appreciate the necessity for the war, and would be 
 impatient or resentful ; the other, a physical one, that it is 
 difficult in time to devise an equitable measure, to administer 
 it, and to secure revenue promptly. The former argument 
 should appeal more strongly in an autocracy than in a democ- 
 racy, and especially in one which so quickly perceived the 
 justice and need of a conscription of men. The second applies 
 with diminishing force as the war is prolonged and time is 
 afforded for action. 
 
 Producing and Saving. 
 
 If it be true that the burden of war is actually borne at the 
 time, then it follows that the capacity of a nation to wage 
 war is measured by its ability to maintain production, and 
 especially to save — to abstain from luxuries, and to stop waste. 
 Hence the importance of our many appeals in this direction. 
 
 And let us not be deluded by inflated reports of the rapid 
 growth of our wealth into thinking that we can meet the 
 burdens of this war without further increased production and 
 economy. There is danger of this when figures come from 
 responsible sources without proper interpretation and explana- 
 tion. In such times as these, statements of wealth in terms 
 ofdollars may mean relatively little. The Nation, for instance, 
 has been informed that the value of the 1917 output of farm 
 products is 21 billions of dollars, whatever that is — a sum 
 equal to the total appropriations and authorizations made by 
 Congress in its last session for war purposes. Newspapers 
 have written editorials about it. We are told that no land 
 ever before produced so great farm values, that it is providen- 
 tial that these blessings are heaped upon a worthy people, and 
 
STEPS TO VICTORY. 19 
 
 that America has the will to place this unexampled treasure 
 at the service of the world. These statements are true, and 
 very misleading. The simple fact is that the actual volume 
 of agricultural things produced, bushels of cereals, bales of 
 cotton, number of hogs and sheep, and some other things, is 
 smaller than in 1915, and that consumers simply generally get 
 much less for a dollar. The same statement may be made in 
 a measure as to the reported statistics of industrial produc- 
 tion. It is highly important that these things be seen in the 
 right light, and that they are not permitted to impair the 
 motive for saving. 
 
 Now, taxes have this advantage over loans: They more 
 directly enforce economy. It is true that, whether we part 
 with our wealth through taxes or the loan of our savings, we 
 shall have less to spend on ourselves, but it is not always true 
 that we make our loans from our realized savings. Just there 
 is the difficulty. To pay our subscription we not infrequently 
 resort to borrowing beyond our willingness to save, and thereby 
 set in operation processes which may result in undue expan- 
 sion of credit. Taxation, especially on consumption, more 
 particularly on luxuries, tends more directly to enforce saving, 
 to keep the general level of prices steady, to check investment 
 in nonessential directions, and to release capital and labor for 
 urgent needs. But, after all, large sums must be secured 
 through loans. Borrowing in itself will not necessarily bring 
 about an undue expansion of credit and an advance in prices. 
 It may promote saving. It will do so if payments are made 
 from funds «v. hand or with savings from current income. It 
 is, therefore, of the first importance to the successful prosecu- 
 tion of the war that the disposition of the people to economize 
 be stimulated. The conception of the war savings certificate 
 plan was, for this purpose, a peculiarly happy one, and its 
 promotion must receive the cordial support and indorsement 
 of financial leaders everywhere. 
 
 Patriotism and Profits. 
 
 That we have the physical resources to win this war, if they 
 are properly conserved, I entertain no doubt; that we have 
 these in larger measure than any other nation in the world 
 
20 STEPS TO VICTORY. 
 
 is a matter of common knowledge. We have not yet fully 
 realized the enormous power of the country. If in the sixties, 
 when we were a simple, crude, undeveloped Nation, doing 
 things, relatively speaking, on an "oxcart" basis, with the ques- 
 tion yet undetermined whether we were to be one nation or 
 two, we could wage the mightiest war up to that time and issue 
 from it with unrivaled power, what can we not do to-day, 
 with a united people and with immeasurably greater resources, 
 if our spirit is right and our purpose is steadfast? Unless the 
 descendants of the men who followed Grant and Lee are de- 
 generate, there can be no question of the ultimate outcome. It 
 is time for each individual to search his heart and to purge 
 his mind and purpose of selfish motives and for each class in 
 society to think in terms of the Nation rather than in terms of 
 its own interest. It is no time for any class to hug to its 
 bosom the delusion that it possesses a monopoly of patriotism. 
 Human nature is pretty evenly distributed and no little selfish- 
 ness manifests itself in every direction. Unfortunately there 
 are self-seekers in every group, men who assume the attitude 
 that if they are to make additional efforts to increase produc- 
 tion or to serve the country, the Nation must pay them the 
 price. Their patriotism, it is implied, needs to be stimulated. 
 This is impossible because there is no foundation to work upon. 
 I have heard many manufacturers solemnly assert that if the 
 Government wished them to speed up their operations, to ex- 
 tend their plants, or to take additional trouble in any direction, 
 it must guarantee to them an abnormally large profit in addi- 
 tion to the requisite allowance for amortization. One of them 
 recently suggested to me that he was getting weary of the 
 burdens he had assumed, and that if the Government wished 
 him to continue or to undertake new tasks, it would have to 
 induce him to do so by permitting him greatly to increase his 
 profits. What would he or others say of a soldier, of the man 
 drafted into the Army, who protested that for so much he 
 would go to the seaboard, but if the Government wished him 
 to go abroad, it must stimulate him with a 25 per cent increase 
 in his pay, or, if he went to the front trenches, with 50 per 
 cent? 
 
 In the words of the President, ''Patriotism has nothing to 
 do with profits in a case 1 like this. Patriotism and profits 
 
STEPS TO VICTORY. 21 
 
 ought never in the present circumstances be mentioned to- 
 gether. It is perfectly proper to discuss profits as a matter of 
 business, * * * but it would be absurd to discuss them 
 as a motive for helping to serve and save our country. * * * 
 In these days of our supreme trial, when we are sending hun- 
 dreds of thousands of our young men across the seas to serve 
 a great cause, no true man who stays behind to work for them 
 and sustain them by his labor will ask himself what he is per- 
 sonally going to make out of that labor. No true patriot will 
 permit himself to take toll of their heroism in money or seek 
 to grow rich by the shedding of their blood." 
 
 The Individual's Duty. 
 
 I can conceive that each individual, no matter what class in 
 society he belongs to or what service he renders, whether he 
 be a manufacturer, a farmer, a laborer, a lawyer, a scientist, 
 or a soldier, will take pains to see that he attains for himself 
 and his operations the highest degree of efficiency and give the 
 maximum service or products to the Nation. at the lowest cost 
 consistent with efficient operation and effective standards of 
 living ; but it is inconceivable to me that any citizen who dares 
 to call himself a patriot should aim to do less or to seek mere 
 selfish advantage. It is obviously the duty of each civilian to 
 reveal by his conduct the same standards of patriotism, 
 devotion, and sacrifice, if necessary, either of life or property, 
 that we expect from the men whom we send to the front di- 
 rectly to bear the brunt of battle. I am confident that it is in 
 this spirit that most of the people of the Nation are viewing 
 their obligations and that the great body of public sentiment 
 will permit no other attitude to manifest itself in those who 
 are less right-minded. There can be no slacking, no turning 
 back. The rights of the Nation must be vindicated and its in- 
 stitutions preserved. Those who would keep the people of the 
 world from going about their business in orderly and decent 
 fashion must be taught a lesson once for all. Guaranties that 
 there shall be no recurrence of such a world calamity as the 
 present must be enforced. A finish must be made once for all 
 to all things feudal, humanity be safeguarded, democracy 
 impregnably intrenched, and the lesson be forced home that the 
 
22 STEPS TO VICTORY. 
 
 worthy and tolerable national aspiration is to have a clean na- 
 tional household from cellar to attic, and a durable and right- 
 eous peace must be secured, in accordance with the recent his- 
 tory-making declaration of the President, in itself a great 
 step 'toward victory— a peace on the basis of reparation, justice 
 and security. 
 
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