Class Book, \ '") ~] I COPYRIGHT DEPO£ INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS BY ALVIN S. JOHNSON, Ph.D. Professor of Political Econoroy in the University of Nebraska NEW YORK SCHOOL OF LIBERAL ARTS AND SCIENCES FOR NON-RESIDENTS 1907 ^^ JUBRASY of 00'rtaivS33.| ^ Two Copies Heceivti., UAH 1 1 1 908 ji ./^^ ^^^ li .CO FY au \^ on Copyright, 1907 By THE SCHOOL OF LIBERAL ARTS AND SCIENCES FOR NON-RESIDENTS PREFACE In a democratic State economic science should be for the many, not for the few. The science is admittedly a difficult one; and until a royal road through its domains has been found, there is ample justification for the publi- cation of a new text-book on economics, for the many excellent manuals now before the American public have not reached all classes nor met all needs. It has appeared to the writer that an economics text-book of moderate dimensions, dealing with only the more fundamental prob- lems of the science, and written, so far as this is possible, in the language of every-day life, would prove useful to at least a limited class of students, and especially to those students of mature mind who seek to gain an introduction to modern economic thought, but who are not in a position to avail themselves of the advantages of class-room instruc- tion. What students of this class — as well as many other students — most need is not a compendium of economic facts nor even an exhaustive treatment of economic principles, but a series of rigorous exercises in economic reasoning which will enable them better to organize the mass of practical economic knowledge that their daily experience affords. The distinctive character of modern economic theory consists chiefly in its method of applying the principles of diminishing utility and diminishing returns. The student who is thoroughly familiar with these two principles, and who is trained to recognize their operation in practically every economic problem, will be able to follow the reasoning of the most profound of the modern economists, provided, of course, that this reasoning is not rendered unintelligible by a special terminology. But it is not alone as an intro- duction to economic theory that training in the use of these two principles is of vital importance. Most, if not all, of IV PREFACE the problems of practical economic policy involve one or both of these principles. The writer is persuaded that by far the greater proportion of the fallacies that vitiate popular reasoning on economic subjects originate in disregard of these principles. His aim in the theoretical part of the work has therefore been to present rather a series of studies throwing into relief the operation of these principles than an exhaustive treatment of the topics discussed. This method involves the exclusion of many topics that are ordinarily presented in an introductory treatise ; it involves, further, a degree of repetition that can be justified only if it attains its purpose in making the student thoroughly con- versant with the laws of diminishing utility and diminishing returns. The teacher of economics will observe that very little use has been made of the terminology of the Austrian school. This does not imply that the writer regards that terminology as useless ; on the contrary, he believes that in the develop- ment of some such special terminology lies the hope of sub- stantial progress in economic theory. It seems, however, unfair to the student to cumber the pages that he is to read with unfamiliar terms, the mastery of which will avail him little unless he is to devote himself to advanced theoretical study. It will further be observed that no attempt is made to group the chapters of this manual in "Parts" or "Books." The traditional fourfold division of the science is not suited to a theory which explains distribution in terms of production and makes frequent use of the concept value in its discussion of production. The division of the science into Statics and Dynamics, proposed by the author's friend and former teacher. Professor John B. Clark, while doubtless of great value in a work which is complete in it- self, is too important an innovation to be conveniently em- ployed in a book of a purely introductory character. It is perhaps superfluous for the author to mention the PREFACE V names of the economists to whom he is especially indebted, since such indebtedness will be readily recognized in his pages. The theory of value presented is in large part de- rived from that of Professor von Wieser; the theories of wages and interest follow closely those of Professor Clark. The treatment of rent and capitalization is largely influenced by the writings of Professor Felter and Professor Seligman. In his discussion of monopoly value the author has made free use of the writings of Professors Marshall, Clark and Ely ; in his discussion of diminishing returns he has borrowed liberally from Professors Marshall and Carver. The discus- sion of banking follows that of the late Professor Dunbar ; the discussions of money and international trade follow the accepted classical models. Lincoln, Nebraska, Alvin Saunders Johnson. December, 1907. CONTENTS I. The Nature and Significance of Eco- nomic Science 3 II. Utility, Value and Price 18 III. Normal Price . 37 IV. Monopoly Price 49^ V. The Cost of Production 64^% VI. The Law of Diminishing Returns . . 79 VII. The Division of Labor 97 VIII. The Concentration of Industry . . . 109 IX. The General Law of Wages .... 120 X. Influences Giving Rise to Differences in Wages 135 XI. Capital 151 XII. The Rate of Interest 164 XIII. Rent and Capitalization 181 XIV. Business Profits ^97/ XV. Money . 213 XVI. Financial Institutions: The Bank . 234 XVII. Other Financial Institutions . , . 254 XVIII. International Trade and Foreign Ex- change 273 XIX. The Regulation of International Trade 293 XX. The Economic Relations of Government 317 CHAPTER I The Nature and Significance of Economic Science From the earliest time of which we have any record a great part of the activities of man has been occupied with the production or acquisition of wealth — material objects and personal services upon the possession of which human welfare depends, or seems to depend. In the long ages of savagery and barbarism primitive man was engaged in a ceaseless struggle with nature for the bare means of exist- ence — food, clothing, and shelter. Limited as were the supplies of nature, a savage tribe never for a long time enjoyed them in peace; other tribes coveted the hunting grounds, or the bays where shellfish abounded; the rich pastures or the groves of fruit-bearing trees. Hence the difficulty of obtaining from nature the means of subsistence was aggravated by constant warfare between tribe and tribe. A struggle for mere existence against nature and against hostile tribes — such was the life of primitive man. From century to century, however, man learned to equip himself better for the struggle for existence. Tools, at first rudely wrought from stone, later from the metals, greatly increased his productive power. A yet greater step in ad- vance was made when animals were domesticated, and a certain and steady food supply took the place of the pre- carious products of the chase. The cultivation of roots and grains that had in their wild state yielded scanty returns to the gatherer marked another stage of progress. Methods were crude, and the tasks of pastoral and agricultural life exceedingly laborious — a condition which gave rise to the enslaving of captives taken in war. With the increase in the 4 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS productive power of a tribe, at least limited classes were freed from the struggle for the merest necessities. A leisure class, using the term in a restricted sense, appeared; and with it the germ of culture and civilization. Thus pro- ductive power and civilization have advanced hand in hand, until to-day, in the most progressive societies, there are comparatively few whose days are altogether devoted to a quest for food and shelter. Although civilized man is for the most part liberated from the dangers of starvation and of death through ex- posure to storm and winter cold, his desire for the material objects and human services that constitute wealth is in no way relaxed. Merely to possess food sufficient to satisfy hunger does not content him; the food must be pleasing to the palate as well as nutritious. Warm clothing is an excellent thing; but civilized man demands that his clothes be of good appearance as well as comfortable. A sod house on the prairie is constructed with no great 'amount of labor and almost no expense; in such a house one may defy the worst storms of winter and the hottest winds of summer. Yet the modern dweller on the plains would scorn to live in such an abode; his home must present an appearance of comfort and prosperity. To stand well with one's fellows is to most men hardly less important than life itself, and in all human history an important factor in winning and retain- ing the esteem of others has been the possession of proper attire and other personal appointments. There is a standard of wealth consumption which each little group of associates in society are under some sort of compulsion to attain. If my neighbors and boyhood playmates all have fine houses, I cannot enter my humble dwelling without a sense of in- feriority. If they are well fed and well dressed and well housed, I would be as good as they are. If they are wise or learned or cultured, I naturally strive to emulate them in this respect. But one cannot be well clad or well housed, Qm cannot very well even be wise or learned or cultured, INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS 5 unless one can command a fair amount of wealth, an amount far in excess of the bare needs of existence. Under modern conditions wealth has become a means — though, of course, not the only means — to most of the things which one can desire. And as it is not in the nature of man to be content for any long time with what he possesses and what he has attained, it is inevitable that his desire for wealth, which is so potent a means for further attainment, should continue unabated. This desire for wealth is what is meant by the economic motive. It necessarily plays a large part in the lives of most men. It animates the purest and most unselfish as well as the most sordid. For the desire for wealth is a desire for means to ends, and these may be good or evil. The philanthropist who wishes to found a home for invalid children must have wealth, just as the voluptuary who de- sires a palace of all delights to please his jaded senses. The economic motive animates both; very likely the philanthro- pist desires wealth the more ardently. What differentiates the two is the end which the wealth is meant to subserve. To assert, then, that all men are in great measure actuated by economic motives is not to assert that all men are selfish or sordid. It is merely to assert that wealth has been placed between man and the satisfaction of most of his desires; that as he seeks to attain any end whatsoever, he will seek to possess the means to that end. Economics is the science which deals with such of the activities of man as spring out of the economic motive. It treats of the creation, acquisition, and use of wealth. The subject-matter for economic science, therefore, is to be found in every society — as well in the most primitive tribe as in the most advanced nation. Yet the facts of economic life have only recently been worked up into a systematic body of knowledge. For the beginnings of the science it is not necessary to go back more than three centuries, although fragmentary treatment of economic questions may be found 6 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS in earlier writings. How can we explain this late develop- ment of the study of facts with which humanity has from the earliest time been concerned? Throughout the periods of savagery and barbarism men lived in small groups, which produced, through the chase, agriculture, and pasturage, practically everything that the members of the group consumed. Whether the group pros- pered or fared ill depended upon the weather, the fertility of the soil, the quantity and character of game, the relation to other groups — whether tribute was given or received. Within the group the relative welfare of each member de- pended to a certain extent upon his own prowess and effi- ciency; perhaps to a greater extent upon the tribal customs in accordance with which the common products of the group were distributed among its members. As conditions varied widely among different peoples, a general science of tribal economics would have been difficult to create. In the civ- ilized states of antiquity a somewhat similar condition rendered the rise of economic science impossible. Industry was based on slavery; the lord of landed estates produced by slave labor almost everything that was needed on the estate. His welfare depended upon the amount and fer- tility of the land he possessed; the number of his slaves and his skill in managing them ; the state of the weather, and freedom from hostile invasion. No systematic body of knowledge explaining the economic life of the people as a whole was developed, because there could scarcely be said to be an economic life of the people apart from that of the separate families. So, also, in the mediaeval villages. They were self-sufficing; the welfare of the community depended upon natural forces and the energy of the members of the community and their capacity for co-operation. Each indi- vidual depended for his welfare partly upon the same con- ditions, partly upon village custom in the apportionment of services and rewards. With the rise of modern trade a significant change took INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS 7 place in economic life. In greater and greater measure men engaged in production for distant markets, instead of for their own use. Under such conditions welfare depended not only upon the producer's energy and success in the cre- ation of goods. It depended also in large measure upon the price of the goods which were sent to market. The transition from production for one's own use to production for the market took place at various times in different countries and in different industries. In some branches of production it is only recently that the change has been effected. Thus the production of bread, formerly almost everywhere carried on in the household for consumption there, has in the cities become an independent branch of industry, carried on for supplying a market, just as the production of shoes, cloth or iron. The striking characteristic of modern economic life, then, is that men produce goods not for their own use, but for the market. The employee in a shoe factory will very prob- ably never wear any of the shoes he helps to produce; if the maker of clothes ever works on garments for himself, this is the exception to the rule of his daily labor. The farmer consumes little, if any, of the wheat which he raises ; the woolgrower rarely spins and works up into cloth for his own use the product of his flocks. The modern economic system is therefore called an exchange economy, for it is through exchange of goods that each man gets the com- modities which he needs. And with the rise of the ex- change economy a new set of laws of wealth and welfare have come into operation. The welfare of a farmer under'' modern conditions depends in some degree upon his own energy and intelligence, and in some degree upon the weather. But in a very large degree it depends upon the price at which he can sell his products. A high price of iron brings prosperity to all the classes engaged in the production of iron, as a low price involves them in loss and distress. And so with practically all members of modern 8 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS society; their welfare is bound up with the prices of products. A farmer or a manufacturer is popularly said to "put a price" upon his products. In the majority of cases, how- ever, what the seller really does is to make a choice between selling at a given price or keeping his goods unsold. Except in rare cases there is a market price for goods which the buyers and sellers must accept if they desire to engage in business at all, and over this price no single person has any control. Yet prices do not exist apart from the action of men; they are the creation of man in society. Many per- sons, each acting with a view to his own interest, offer wheat for sale ; many persons stand ready to buy it. The price of wheat is fixed as a result of the offers and purchases of all persons who buy or sell wheat. It is therefore a social phenomenon — the creation of all society, or of a large part of it. And so it is with almost all prices. They are set by society. Hence the laws of price are properly called the laws of social economics, or of political economy. While each man produced goods for his own use, the tools and appliances which he used were of necessity simple. To cut enough wood for one's own use did not require a very expensive axe ; to furnish boards for one's own dwell- ing required only a handsaw, to be worked by two men. Spinning wheels and looms were likewise of the simplest make. These tools and appliances could be made by the workman himself, or secured through exchange at small sacrifice. Accordingly the laborer as a rule owned the im- plements he worked with. In early modern times, although production for the market had become fairly common, the means of production still remained in the worker's hands. The increasing demand for products, however, soon led to the introduction of more expensive tools, and at last to the invention of machinery. Every step in this direction made it more difficult for the worker to provide himself with the means of production. So these had to be supplied by per- INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS 9 sons of wealth — capitalists. Under present conditions man- ufacturing industry in almost all its branches requires so large an expenditure for equipment that no single laborer can work with his own tools and machines ; nor is it possible for a group of laborers to equip themselves for production through combining their small savings. The capital outlay for a mill employing a hundred workmen is usually far in excess of what a hundred workmen can accumulate. Industry must therefore be conducted by wage laborers and employer-capitalists. To a certain extent the employer and the capitalist have been further differentiated, the former borrowing capital from the latter at a fixed rate of interest. When the products are sold, whatever remains after paying wages and interest is a profit, the reward of the employer, or, as he is generally called, the entrepreneur or enterpriser. Under modern conditions, as we have seen, the prosperity of each industry as a whole depends largely upon the prices of its products. Within each industry the prosperity of each laborer, capitalist or employer depends in great degree upon the way in which the total product of the industry is divided. And here again we encounter social laws. There is a general rate of wages, which the laborer must accept if he wishes employment. In the same way, there is a general rate of interest. No one man exercises any appreciable influence in fixing these rates; they are the resultant of the actions of all those who have labor to sell or capital to lend, on the one hand, and on the other hand, of those who desire to hire laborers or to borrow capital. The prices of goods, the wages of labor, the rate of inter- est on capital, elude the control of any single individual. May they not, however, be controlled by combinations of individuals, or by the action of a sovereign state? Within limits this is possible. A trade union may force up the rate of wages ; a protective tariff may enhance the prices of many classes of goods. But there are limits beyond which com- bination and political action are unavailing — -limits which 10 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS are set by social forces. What these forces are, how they Operate, how far they can be controlled, and with what results for society as a whole — these are the problems which social economics endeavors to solve. Social economics as a distinct science may be said to have taken its rise in studies concerning taxation and public finance. In early modern times the expenditures of govern- ment in most European states were steadily increasing. The various princes vied with one another in the splendor of their palaces and in the number and brilliancy of their personal following; the cost of maintaining the tranquillity of the nation at home and its dignity and influence in foreign lands became heavier from decade to decade. More than all, meth- ods of warfare by land and by sea were changing, and military success was coming to depend quite as much upon the size of the war chest as upon the valor of the soldiers. These new expenditures could be met only through taxation ; accordingly, it became a very practical matter for the states- man to devise means for increasing the prosperity of a nation in order to increase its capacity for paying taxes. As the precious metals seemed to be the most convenient and the most reliable form of wealth, it was the aim of the statesman to provide these in abundance. European coun- tries, having no important mines of silver and gold, could secure these metals only through foreign trade. Hence the kernel of early modern economic policy was the regulation of foreign trade, with a view to bringing into a nation large supplies of treasure. These regulations formed a system which in the end became burdensome in the extreme ; their futility and injuriousness were exposed in the latter half of the eighteenth century by the Economistes in France and by Adam Smith in Great Britain, whose writings first placed economics on a scientific basis. Through the nineteenth century economic discussion has progressed from one prac- tical problem to another — money and banking, trade union- ism, socialism, monopoly, etc. The chief function of the INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS II science is still, as in its earliest period, to ascertain what economic policy of government will be most conducive to the general welfare. Although it is known as the "science of wealth,'' it is no part of the function of economics to instruct individuals how they may best acquire wealth. Its principal aim has been attained when it has thrown all possi- ble light upon the economic problems which a state, and its members as citizens of a state, have to solve. We have seen that under modern conditions the wel- fare of industries, and of individuals engaged in those industries, is largely determined by the social forces of price. The influence of price extends even further. In large measure the same social forces determine what each of us shall do; they fix one's place of residence as well as his occupation. If the price of glass is high, and remains high for a considerable period of time, high profits and high wages are possible in the glass industry. New establishments will be opened ; boys and young men who otherwise would have engaged in other industries become glass blowers. By fix- ing a high price on glass, society, as it were, decrees that more persons and more capital shall be devoted to that industry. If coal or other sources of power are excep- tionally cheap in a given locality, if conditions of transpor- tation are exceptionally favorable, large profits may be made by manufacturers in that locality; they increase their investments and new capital flows in from less favored districts. A city is built, and the population that was formerly scattered in hamlets and country is under a sort of compulsion to congregate there. Why are our cities becoming greater and greater? The social laws of price decree it. If we would understand just why modern society presents a given form, our inquiry must take into account, as perhaps the most important factor, these laws of price. Since the fixing of prices is a work in which all, or most of society co-operates, whatever affects any industry, for good or evil, must react in some manner upon all society. 12 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS A dry year in India, with consequent shortage of crops, affects not only the Hindoo ryot, but also the British work- man, the farmer in Dakota or in Argentina. Large crops in the West, concurrent with high prices, exert a powerful influence, not only upon the interests of the local merchants, bankers and mechanics, but upon the manufacturing and financial interests of the entire country. The railways are prosperous, having an immense amount of transportation work to perform, and their stockholders receive large divi- dends, out of which they may improve their homes, or increase their investments in factories or what not, in every case creating a new demand for labor and extending pros- perity in ever widening circles to the remotest industrial classes in the land. A part of the surplus earnings of the railways may be turned to the extension of lines into new territory; to the double tracking of congested single lines; to the installation of new equipment, with the immediate result of an increased demand upon the rail mills and car works, and all the enterprises subsidiary to these. A crop failure, on the other hand, may disarrange the entire indus- trial mechanism and bring distress to the laborers and capi- talists apparently farthest removed from the immediate cause of the disturbance. An excellent example of the influences set in motion by a great economic event is given by Mr. David A. Wells in his Recent Economic Changes. In the year 1869 the Suez Canal was opened. Up to that time trade with the East Indies was carried on in sailing vessels, which rounded Cape Horn or the Cape of Good Hope with an expenditure of time of three to eight months. A large fleet was necessary to carry on this trade, and this consisted of sailing vessels, since it was impossible for the steamships of the time to make so long a voyage with the coal which they could carry. Because of the uncertainties attending so circuitous a voy- age, and because of the risk of war, vast stores of Indian and Chinese products were kept on hand in England, the INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS 1 3 natural emporium for this trade. There arose in England a great warehousing system, and a parallel development of banking, the warehouse receipts serving as excellent secur- ity for banking loans. After the opening of the canal, most of the commerce with the Indies passed through the Mediterranean. In this sea, and more especially in the Red Sea, the sailing ship was practically useless. Hence a great number of steamships were constructed, and an amount of sailing shipping of about two million tons was virtually destroyed. Ships that formerly would have done service for years rotted in the wharves ; others were sold at far less than cost to be used in other branches of trade. Persons whose property consisted in sailing vessels of any kind suffered heavy losses. Towns along the seacoast that had been engaged in building sailing ships saw their prosperity wane. Captains and trained seamen who had been employed on the East India ships were forced to seek other employ- ment. As the new method of transporting goods was relatively quick and certain, there was no longer any need for keeping anywhere in Europe large stores of India goods. Moreover, goods destined for consumption in the Mediter- ranean countries, and even in Central Europe, were no longer conveyed to England and thence distributed, but were landed at various Mediterranean ports. The warehousing system, accordingly, fell into decay so far as this branch of the trade was concerned, and the banking houses which had depended upon the warehousing business were involved in losses. On the other hand, the increasing demand for steamships brought prosperity to the towns where such ships were built, and to the laborers who were fitted for the work of steam- ship construction. Such were some of the immediate effects. No less im- portant were the remoter ones. It was found that a vessel constructed of wood did not well withstand the vibrations of the engines ; hence the iron, and later the steel, ship took its place. So long as ships were built of wood there were 14 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS few countries better fitted for shipbuilding than the United States. Iron and steel were, however, far dearer in the United States than in England; moreover, American labor- ers did not quickly acquire the skill necessary for the suc- cessful construction of iron ships. Accordingly, the Ameri- can merchant marine was forced to give way before the British. American enterprise was diverted to other chan- nels, and has not yet returned to the sea. The same event hastened the development of steam navi- gation, with consequent cheapening of freight rates, in the trade between Europe and America, and this helped to enable the American farmer to flood the European markets with his produce. This greatly increased the prosperity of America; it gave cheaper food to the British factory hand, and in less degree cheapened food supplies in Continental countries. The European farmer, on the other hand, was forced to take lower prices for his products. In England, where American competition was keenest, the agricultural districts were involved in a depression from which they have not yet recovered. It would be superfluous to multiply examples to show the close interdependence of parts in the mechanism of economic society. What affects one part of the economic organism must inevitably affect other parts. And this it is that renders it difficult to devise plans for obviating the economic evils which remain in spite of the progress of civilization. Through legislation it may be comparatively easy to restore to vigor a decaying industry, and bring comfort and wealth to those engaged in it. But the effects of legislation of this nature will not be bounded by the industry which it is sought to aid. Suppose that we are moved to action by the decay of the old ship-building cities, which once sent vessels to every important port in the world, but which now are com- pelled to seek a precarious sustenance from the entertain- ment of summer boarders; by the shipyards closed month after month; by the efficient seamen forced to do odds and INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS 1$ ends of work ashore. It would be possible, through lavish grants from the public treasury, to make the ship-building industry pay. We should see a great industry spring up; we should have the gratification of knowing that the American flag might be seen on every sea — very good things in themselves. What we might not see, but what would be none the less real, would be a sacrifice imposed upon each farmer and miner and mechanic in the way of taxation necessary to meet the drain upon the public treasury. Most of us have at some time speculated upon the apparent injustice in the distribution of rewards and services under the existing economic system. Is it right that the unskilled laborers, whose hours are long, and whose toil is hard and uninteresting, should receive only the smallest pittance, while the successful lawyer or architect receives a princely income for work that may afford him the greatest pleasure ? Many able thinkers have utterly condemned the existing economic system because of this inequality of rewards; they wOuld substitute a plan of sharing which would give to each accord- ing to the time spent or according to the degree of exertion. Certainly, this would increase the welfare of many who now have far too little; it might not seriously injure those who have more than is necessary for comfortable existence. Yet could such a change be made without setting in motion influences which in the end would leave the rich poor and the poor more wretched than they now are? The question is one that cannot be answered without a thorough study of the laws governing the production and distribution of wealth under modern conditions. It is now clear why economic study, though of recent origin, is prosecuted with more zeal than almost any other department of science. It is concerned with one of the most vital of all subjects — the general welfare. Without economic science the existing constitution of society cannot be under- stood ; unless based upon an adequate understanding of l6 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS economic laws, attempts at practical reform of admitted evils are likely to do more harm than good. By what method are we to proceed in order to arrive at an understanding of economic laws ? Not by systematic experimentation, as in other sciences, for when human wel- fare is concerned, experiments extensive enough to be of value are not to be thought of. Not by an investigation of the facts of history, for present conditions differ so widely from those of earlier periods that past experience throws doubtful light upon the problems of to-day. Moreover, history records what is seen ; but what is not seen, but still exists, is a no less important part of economic life. The essential phenomena to be explained are prices — prices paid for commodities, for labor, for the use of capital. Now, if we can grasp the forces that are at work determin- ing prices, we must make some progress, at any rate, toward an understanding of the laws governing modern industry. Shall our method then be to study prices as they actually exist? Unfortunately, while a study of the markets will show whether prices are rising or falling, it will not show what forces determine prices in general. Some other method of approach to the problem must therefore be found. Although no individual exercises a controlling influence over price, yet prices, we know, result from the actions of individuals. When I buy a loaf of bread, I take the price as I find it, yet by my action I contribute an infinitesimal part to the sustaining or increasing of the price of bread, and with it, the price of wheat. Thus we all contribute to the determination of prices. And much as we may differ from one another in other respects, in our economic conduct we are much alike. Practically every one seeks to obtain for his money the largest possible amount of gratification. Prac- tically every one seeks to sell his labor for the highest wage he can obtain, and to secure the highest possible rate of interest on his capital. Exceptions occur, it is true. There are those who have fixed ideas as to fair prices and fair INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS VJ wages, who refuse to accept either more or less than what accords with their standards. But these exceptions are so rare as to be negligible. In business life, as a general rule, each man acts with a view to his own best interests. The problem, then, is to discover the principles underlying economic conduct — how our desires arise and develop, how they are limited, how they are compelled to adapt them- selves to the conditions of external nature. In this study we have a key to the actions of other men in our own motives. Though each man seeks to buy as cheaply as possible and to sell at the highest possible price, he soon learns that there are other men who desire to buy or sell like products or services. That is, he encounters competition. And where competition exists one cannot follow his own desires in fix- ing the prices upon commodities which he has for sale or wishes to buy. He must meet the low prices of competing sellers by equally low prices, or abandon the field to them. If he hopes to buy, he must make his offer as good as those of competing buyers. Competition is not everywhere present; but in the great majority of business transactions prices are fixed with some reference to it. A monopoly may control the whole supply of meat. The monopolistic seller need not fear that meat will be offered by competitors at a lower price. Yet if he fixes his prices too high, intending purchasers will supply a part of their need for food with other products. The seller of cereals and vegetables is in a sense a competitor of the meat monopoly. We may, then, assume that under existing conditions prices are fixed through the concurrent action of buyers and sellers, each of whom seeks to increase his wealth and the resulting gratification at the least possible expenditure to himself. We may also assume that the fixing of prices takes place under conditions of competition in the widest sense of the term. With these assumptions we may pro- ceed to an examination of the process by which the indi- vidual and society arrive at the prices of commodities. CHAPTER II Utility, Value and Price Man is distinguished from all other living creatures by the number and complexity of his needs. The lowest savage requires better shelter and more varied and nutritious food than his next of kin in the animal world. And the higher man rises in the scale of civilization, the more numerous and complex are his needs. Corresponding roughly with man's needs are his wants or desires. From his general need for nutrition springs his want for particular kinds of food, and for anything that may help him to secure these — weapons, tools, etc. His need for warmth and protection against storm gives rise to a want for a hut or a cave, and for furs and skins and whatever else may serve as clothing. Under primi- tive conditions it was only through cooperation with his fellows that a man could procure adequate means of subsis- tence and could protect himself against his natural enemies ; moreover, without the society of his fellows he would have been miserable. Next to the needs for the means of physi- cal existence then, man needed whatever would win him the approval and admiration of his fellows. Hence arose wants for objects of personal adornment and the like. Finally, various puzzling experiences created in him the belief that his life was subject to the influence of unseen beings, whose favor he needed to gain ; therefore he developed a want for things w^hich he believed would propitiate such beings. Thus from the earliest time man has desired objects which would satisfy his physical, social and spiritual needs. In general, the same classification of wants or desires holds to-day. But in the evolution of wants the clear distinc- INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS 19 tions of earlier conditions have become somewhat ob- scured. Leaving aside the want for objects ministering to spiritual needs — as in a sense beyond the realm of economics — it is plain that most physical wants have a social element, as most social wants have a physical element. The want for food is of course predominantly physical; yet most of us demand that in its quality and preparation it shall conform to the standards of the society in which we live. The want for jewelry was at first almost purely social; it remains predominantly so. But in the progress of time man has developed a strong sense of personal satisfaction in gold and gems — he desires them perhaps more for their mere beauty than for the envy and admiration they excite — and this esthetic element may in many cases quite supplant the original social element. Every concrete want of man is capable of complete satisfaction. But the different wants vary widely in their insistency and in the ease with which they may be entirely satisfied. The want for bread, for instance, is extremely insistent, yet easily satisfied. I must have bread, but I would not care to have even a petty baker's entire supply. Such a want is known in economics as an inelastic one. The people of the United States require a fairly determinate quantity of wheat for food, and this quantity they will strive to secure even at great sacrifice. Much more than this, however, would not be wanted at all, unless of course it could be sold in other lands, or some use other than the supplying of food could be found for it. On the other hand, the want for some classes of things is very hard to satisfy at all, although it is not absolutely essential that the want be satisfied. I can get on very well without pos- sessing paintings ; but I should like to have all there are in the Louvre. The people of the United States may live comfortably without having many art galleries; but it is almost inconceivable that they covild have too many. Such wants, then, are elastic. 20 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS As the examples given indicate, it is as a rule the wants for objects satisfying physical needs that are inelastic, and the wants arising out of social needs that are elastic. The wants for so-called necessaries are inelastic; for luxuries, elastic. Civilization tends to develop the wants for objects satisfying social needs, and for luxuries of all kinds. Hence it may be said that the higher a people stands in the scale of civilization, the farther it is from the complete satisfac- tion of all its wants. Every man wants enough food to keep him alive; a quantity sufficient for this purpose he desires intensely. An equal additional quantity will keep him in good condi- tion; this quantity he desires only less intensely. Give him more food ; it may still please his palate, and satisfy a want. But a point is soon reached where the man wants no more food at all. So the want for a suit of clothes is hardly less insistent than the want for food enough for life. A second suit of clothes will be highly desired, even if of identical quality, as it may be worn when the first is soaked with rain or other- wise out of condition for wear. A third suit of the same kind would not be desired very intensely; a fourth, or at any rate a fifth or sixth, would be a superfluity. But if it is possible to vary the quality, the want becomes far more expansive. The social element becomes predominant; the man would dress at least as well as men in the social group to which he belongs, or of which he desires to become a member. Yet a point is eventually reached where neither increase in quantity nor improvement in quality is desired. It may then be stated, as one of the general laws of human nature, that each want is capable of varying degrees of satisfaction, that with each increase in the means of satis- faction the desire for additional means grows less, until a point is reached where desire is no longer felt. Whatever satisfies a want is a good, in economic termi- nology. Its power to satisfy wants is known as utility. INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS 21 It is, of course, plain that nothing has utility in this sense unless it is wanted. Utility is strictly parallel with want; human want for a certain object endows it with utility; and the degree of utility is measured by the degree of want. Before men knew the use of iron, iron ore had no utility at all; with every advance in the art of metallurgy, the utility of iron ore has increased. In the days of Marco Polo, the only utility that existed in the petroleum of Asia Minor arose from its use "to anoint camels suffer- ing from the mange"; now the progress of science and industry has endowed the same material with a very high utility. Utility, it is to be borne in mind, is not usefulness. Opium prepared for smoking, being ardently desired by the victims of the opium habit, has a very high utility, in the economic sense; but it is the reverse of useful. As a rule, whatever is useful has utility, but there is no close correspondence between the degree of usefulness and the degree of utility. We have seen that wants are capable of varying degrees of satisfaction. As utility is strictly parallel with want, con- crete goods, satisfying the dififerent degrees of want, have different degrees of utility. Three bushels of wheat may supply me with bread enough to sustain life through a year ; the utility of these three bushels — supposing I have no other source of food supply — is exceedingly great; I want them as I want life and all that life contains. It would not be easy to fix an estimate upon this amount of utility, but let us call it i,ooo;ir. Another three bushels would enable me to keep in fairly good physical condition ; but their util- ity to me is evidently less ; perhaps it would be lOO x. An- other three bushels might mean overfeeding; yet some per- sons are desirous of being overfed; hence I may still de- sire these three bushels, and thus endow them with util- ity, which may possibly be measured by io,i'. With an- other three bushels I might feed a cat and a dog; it would 22 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS give me pleasure to have these as pets; therefore I should desire the additional supply of wheat, and it might repre- sent a utility of 5 x. An additional three bushels I could probably not use in any way giving me satisfaction. They would have no utility for me at all. Suppose that I find a particularly beautiful sea-shell. As it seems beautiful to me, it has utility to me. The amount of utility to me may equal 103;. Another shell will not be so much of an acquisition, but I shall still desire it. Its utility may perhaps be gy. Additional ones will give me less pleasure, but as the want for things of beauty is hard to satisfy, I may still experience a desire for a hundredth or a thousandth shell, and these would have some utility for me. There is, however, a point beyond which addi- tional shells would merely cumber my premises ; they would then have no utility. These examples assume, of course, that I do not un- dergo a change while I am acquiring these goods. If repeated examination of the sea-shell inspires me with an increasing sense of its perfection of form, I may desire a second even more than I desired the first. Its utility will be greater than that of the first originally was. But not greater than the utility of a first shell would be in my present state. So one's first experience of classical music may be less enjoyable than his second experience of the same kind of music. He has, in the meantime, become a more cultured person. But assuming that no opportunity for development in taste is permitted, the pleasure derived from the first hour of listening to good music will be greater than that derived from a second hour of equally good music. The utility of the second hour of music is less. And so we may accept it as a general rule that the utility of a unit of any kind of good diminishes as the number of such units in one's possession increases. In the foregoing examples it has been assumed that INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS 23 the quantity of the goods increased until no desire for fur- ther units existed. Most of the things which we desire are not to be had in superfluous quantities. Instead of hav- ing five units, each consisting of three bushels of wheat, let us assume that I have but three. The third unit would still have a utility of lo ;r. As this is the utility of the last or final or marginal part of my supply, it is called final or marginal utility. Suppose that I have only ten sea- shells, and that the utility of the tenth is 5 y. In economic language 5 j' is the final or marginal utility of sea-shells. Final utility, it is clear, is a very variable quantity; if the desire for a good increases, with no increase in the number of units of the good, final utility increases; if the desire remains the same, but the number of units of the good diminishes, final utility again increases. In the first example, if the third unit of wheat were destroyed, the marginal utility of wheat would at once become 100 .r. Conversely, marginal utility diminishes with decrease in want or increase in number of units. I might tire of col- lecting sea-shells, or the waves might wash up a wagon- load of them. In either case the marginal utility would shrink — perhaps to zero. But does any man really arrange his wheat or other goods in series of units and say to himself : "This unit is worth 1000 x; without it I should starve ; this unit is worth 100 x, as my comfort and strength depend upon it; this unit is worth 5 X, for if I did not have it I should be compelled to do without my pets"? Not at all; the different units are just alike, and one is thought of as just as desirable as another. For practical purposes, the utility of one unit is the same as that of another. Let us suppose that there are four units of wheat, and that the last has a utility of 5 x. What is lost if any one of the four units is lost? Simply 5 X. What sacrifice would one make to prevent the loss of any unit, even the one which would have been used to sustain life, and by itself was worth looow? A sacrifice 24 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS not greater than 5 x. For if any other unit is lost, the least important one will be substituted for it, and the effective loss will be properly placed at 5 x. The utility of the last and least important unit, then, exercises an important influence in determining what util- ity one will in effect ascribe to any unit. For practical pur- poses the utility of any unit is exactly equal to that of the least important one. The utility of a unit, thus measured by that of the least important one, is called "effective utility." If the total number of units of a good is so great that the last one has no utility, the good has no effective utility at all. No one would do anything to prevent the destruc- tion of part of his supply; no one would give anything to increase his supply. Thus water, although a single gallon would have indefinitely great utility, if this were the only gallon available, is in most places so abundant that the last units of the supply have no utility. Therefore no unit has effective utility. Anything which a man can acquire or hold possession of, which is capable of satisfying a desire, and the available quantity of which is so limited that every portion of it has effective utility, is an economic good. To possess any such thing is an object worth incurring sacrifice for; and no one will be ready to suffer deprivation of it. All such goods constitute wealth. Economic goods may be classified according as they satisfy wants immediately or indirectly. Bread, clothing, dwelling houses and the like minister directly to wants; they exist only for direct use, or "consumption"; they are therefore spoken of as consumer's goods. Tools, ma- chines, raw material, land and the like serve as means to the production of goods having the quality of direct utility. They are accordingly known as producer's goods. Under modern conditions the distinction is hard to draw, because through exchange goods destined for immediate consump- tion may be used indirectly to procure other goods. Thus INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS 2$ the baker's loaves are not consumer's goods to him, but means for procuring whatever he may wish to consume. All material goods used either as materials or instruments of production, or as means of acquisition through exchange, are classed as capital goods. In order to direct one's economic activities intelligently, it is important to know how the effective utility of one kind of goods compares with that of another. Suppose that a cul- tivator can produce, with the expenditure of one day's labor, two bushels of potatoes or one bushel of wheat. Should he spend his time in producing wheat, or potatoes, or both? If the effective utility of two bushels of potatoes is greater than that of a bushel of wheat, the rational thing is for him to produce more potatoes and to spend less time producing wheat. According to the law of diminishing utility, the effective utility of potatoes will decline as their quantity i*^- creases ; at the same time, that of wheat will increase, as our example assumes that labor formerly occupied in wheat production is diverted to the raising of potatoes. A point will probably be reached where a day's labor will produce as much utility in one branch of agriculture as in the other; and until this point is reached, the cultivator has it in his power to increase his welfare simply by making a more ra- tional distribution of his labor. But before one can rationally distribute his labor or other resources, he must have a definite notion of the relative ef- fective utilities of goods. He must measure the utility of one — the degree to which it seems desirable to him — in terms of the utility of the other ; or he must measure them both by a common standard. And this, of course, is easy to do. Think of any two objects. Which seems the more de- sirable ? That one has the greater utility for you. How far would one walk in order to get good No. i ? If he would walk twice as far to get good No. 2, the latter has twice the effective utility of the former. Any good, or any sacri- fice, may serve thus as a standard for measuring the com- 26 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS parative utilities of goods. Under existing economic con- ditions, of course, the standard which most readily occurs to one is money. If one wishes to compare the utilities of wheat and potatoes, he naturally considers how much money he would give for a bushel of either. Now, the effective utility of a commodity, compared with that of some other commodity, or compared with some sacri- fice which serves as a standard, is value. Value is effective utility measured. And as effective utility is constantly fluc- tuating with changes in the amount of a good, or in the desire for it, value is also always fluctuating. We often hear of the ''real" value of a thing, or of the "intrinsic" value, as if there were some kind of value resi- dent in a thing apart from man's desire for it. Of course, there can be no such thing. The value of a thing to any person is its importance at a given time and place. Values will naturally be different for different persons. What is the value of my grandfather's watch ? To me, it may be equal to that of $i,ooo. Perhaps you would not give $io for such an antiquated timepiece. In less extreme degree the same things holds of every good. Some will place a high value upon an object; others a low value; and the one is as properly the true or intrinsic value as the other. But is there not a certain scale of values in which most persons agree, and has not this general value a claim to the^ title ''true value"? There is indeed something like a scale of values established, as it were, by common consent; and the economic activities of each seem directed toward making his own scale of values conform to that of society. How this social scale of values arises out of the purely personal values just described, it will be our next task to consider. It is of course self-evident that the social value does so arise. One can not conceive of society as such discovering values, and imparting them to individuals. Utility, as we have seen, is a quality with which an ob- INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS 27 ject is endowed b)?" virtue of a human want. This want may arise out of physicial or out of social need. If a par- ticular social need should disappear or change, certain of our wants would disappear or change. Certain classes of goods, destined to satisfy such wants, would lose their value, or undergo some change in it. There was a time when gen- tlemen clipped their own hair and covered their heads with wigs. To move in polite society, one had to follow this, as other customs. Hence there was a want for wigs, and these were endowed with effective utility and value accordingly. As the fashion of wearing one's own hair came into vogue, this particular kind of wig ceased to have either utility or value. Now it is clear enough that the great majority of those who followed the earlier custom could have had no personal need nor want for a wig. They derived the want from their associates. The custom, I suppose, originated with some bald-headed prince, who really needed a wig. And so it was transmitted from the court to the gentry, and persisted long after the reason for its existence had disap- peared. The value of wigs thus arose from a personal need ; it attained vogue through imitation, and by a similar process, faded out and disappeared. Suppose that I attend an auction of the efifects of an eccentric gentleman, who has led a solitary life collecting odds and ends of all kinds, among them some things of value. I find a painting that pleases me. I know nothing of art, and all that the painting represents to me is a group of dull, brutish persons, making unnecessarily hard work out of some simple agricultural operation. What is its value to me? It would be difficult to say ; certainly in my own mind the value is something very tentative. But finding that the picture can be had for no great sum, I resolve to buy it. I hang my acquisition in an inconspicuous place, for I am not sure whether I should be proud of it or ashamed of it. A friend who knows something of art calls upon me. Perhaps he takes merely a glance at the picture and says nothing. Its 28 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS value to me shrinks to zero. But if he cries enthusiastically, "Ah! a Millet!" immediately its value for me expands in an extraordinary fashion ; what had been scarcely a valuable object at all becomes a priceless treasure. Here then is one reason why values for different per- sons tend to conform to the same scale. If I find that most of my friends think that a riding horse is dear at $300, I think so, too, although I might get more satisfaction out of the horse than they. Value is thus in large measure a matter of imitation. But before one can imitate, there must be something original to serve as a center of imita- tion; and in the matter of values, this must be the original personal value of some, arising out of effective utility to them. Moreover, though imitation brings about a certain uni- formity in the scales of values of different persons, it can not of itself make them absolutely alike. If most of my friends think that a particular horse is worth $200, I cer- tainly would not value it at $300, unless indeed I am a connoisseur in horseflesh and my friends are not. But I think the horse is cheap at $200, while my friends think it is dear. And this shows that in spite of all tendency to conform, I retain a scale of values that is peculiarly my own. So long as men lived in self-sufficing groups, producing whatever they needed for their own use, there was no other force than imitation which could make the personal valua- tions of one group correspond with those of another. But in an exchange economy a much more potent force making for the socialization of values exists. Suppose that two farmers, with adjoining fields, both grow potatoes and wheat. Farmer A may consider that a bushel of wheat is worth two bushels of potatoes ; Farmer B may consider a bushel of potatoes worth two bushels of wheat. Of course, such a divergence could exist only in case the two farmers were so far from a market that they could exchange their products only with each other. INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS 2g Assuming such divergence, however, the natural re- sult would be, not that they would debate the relative justice of their views of value, but that they would trade. Farmer A could afford to offer Farmer B two bushels of potatoes for a bushel of wheat ; Farmer B could afford to accept even a half bushel of potatoes for a bushel of wheat. Exactly how much A would at first offer, we can not say, nor is that of much importance. What is certain is that he can, and probably will, offer terms that will be acceptable to B, and some bushels will be exchanged. Now, as A parts with some of his potatoes, the effective utility, and with it the value, of potatoes to him increases. As he gets more wheat, the effective utility of wheat de- clines. And the reverse will be the case with B, who is in- creasing his stock of potatoes and diminishing his stock of wheat. It may still be worth while for the two farmers to exchange more bushels; but it is not so much worth while as it was at first. In the end, exchange must cease, for each will value wheat in terms of potatoes exactly as the other does. Perhaps Farmer A has land that is very well adapted to potato production, while Farmer B's land is best fitted for the growing of wheat. In another year A will have a super- fluity of potatoes and B of wheat, and the process of ex- change will again be necessary to equalize values. So in a developed economic system the value of wheat as measured in some commodity universally possessed, in regions where it is produced, tends continually to fall below the value of it in regions where little wheat is grown ; and this it is that keeps up a constant exchange between distant regions. And this constant exchange, in turn, tends to eliminate the dis- crepancies in values. Returning to the case of the two neighbors, perhaps one has a cow which he does not care to keep, but the other would like to have ; while the latter has a harrow which he does not need, but the former could well use. Possibly A 30 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS values the cow at twenty bushels of wheat and the harrow at thirty ; while B values the cow at thirty bushels of wheat and the harrow at twenty. Here is a good opportunity for a trade. Either one might give the other a certain number of bushels of wheat "to boot," in order to bring about the trade. At what terms will the exchange be made ? We can not tell. Nor will the exchange, at whatever terms, affect the relative values placed upon cows and harrows by either party to the exchange. It would be different if more cows and harrows were to be exchanged. In that case the scales of values of the two exchanges would tend to uniformity, as was the case with the potatoes and wheat. But very likely no further exchanges are to be made. So I may be able to buy for $25 a coat that I would regard as cheap at $50. Another coat at $25, however, might not seem worth more to me than $20; accordingly I refrain from buying it. Hence the coat which I do buy retains a personal value for me in excess of the value placed upon it by the seller. It is a value that as a whole refuses to be socialized. A similar state of affairs exists wherever one buys single goods, not quantities of like units, as in the case of wheat. In the examples that have been used in the last section it was assumed that both parties to the exchange had per- sonal values, arising out of his own wants, for both com- modities exchanged. This may have been the usual case un- der primitive conditions ; but now, when we produce almost exclusively for sale, the seller of a commodity must fix a per- sonal value in some other way. I may be a dealer in ladies' shoes. It is safe to say that for my personal use they have no value whatsoever. Yet when a prospective customer appears, I have just as definite a value, below which I would not sell the shoes, as I should have if I were trading off a pair of shoes that I might use myself. Whence do I derive this value? I know that if I do not sell shoes to this par- ticular buyer, I shall probably be able to sell them to some INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS 3 1 one else. And I will take no less for them than I think some one else will pay. If experience shows me that few persons will pay the price, I must alter my personal value, or the fashions will change, and I shall have a stock of unsaleable leather on my hands. Now it must be plain that this kind of personal value is entirely a secondary phenomenon. It is derived from the estimate of other men's personal values, arising from per- sonal needs. It has its importance ; but it does not explain the values that are actually placed upon goods. This explana- tion lies in the facts of direct personal valuation. Personal values, as we have seen, naturally vary widely with different individuals. We need not believe that any two persons would affix exactly the same valuation upon a particular horse. One man might value the horse, for his personal use, at $500; another at $50. Yet we find that for a certain grade of horses there is something like a uni- form value in terms of money—or price. Perhaps this money value, or price, is $250. In that case the personal values of $50 and $500 are both ignored. They have no influence upon the price actually set. Personally I should abhor the idea of ballooning. If I were to place a value upon balloons for my own use, it would be far less than nothing. Clearly my personal value of bal- loons has nothing to do with their price, which for a given grade may be $5,000. If I had a mild interest in this form of sport I might value a balloon at $1,000; yet I should not influence their price. Were I so passionately fond of bal- looning, and so plentifully provided with money, as to value a balloon at $100,000, this valuation would nevertheless be incapable of raising the price of balloons much if any above $5,000. It is clear, then, that some personal values count, and some do not, in the determination of prices as they are fixed in the market. To show just what it is that determines what personal values shall count in fixing market prices, we may employ a 32 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS somewhat tedious and artificial example which is the com- mon property of modern text-books in economics. Let us imagine a horse market, in which there are six persons with horses to sell, and six persons each of whom would like to buy a horse. We will assume that the horses are as alike as peas, so that each buyer would as willingly have one as an- other. Of course each buyer desires to buy as cheaply as possible, and each seller desires the highest possible price for his horse. Each buyer has in his own mind a top price — the most he would pay under any circumstances — and each seller has a bottom price, below which he would absolutely refuse to go. Being rational men, the buyers carefully re- frain from letting their top prices be known ; and in the same way the sellers keep their lowest prices a close secret. We shall assume the fiction writer's omniscience, and set down the top and bottom prices of the buyers and sellers respec- tively, as follows : Buyers Sel lers A $ioo M $90 B 90 N 80 C 80 70 D 70 P 60 E 60 Q 50 F 50 R 40 How many horses will be sold, and at what price? Of course if each of the buyers in the first column were shut up in a stall with the seller in the opposite column, all the horses would be sold, and at different prices. But we are assuming that all are in an open yard, and hear one an- other's bids and offers. Under these circumstances no buyer will pay more than another, nor will one seller take less for his horse than another. What price will actually be fixed can be seen by following out in detail the probable action of these buyers and sellers, INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS 33 Suppose A, a buyer, offers $40 as his first bid. R could afford to take it ; but as any of the other five buyers would be glad to get a horse at that price, they each offer a little more than $40. Competition for this horse goes on until the price is raised to $50. At this point two horses may be had; but there are six competing buyers, and the price goes higher. Thereupon F, who will pay no more than $50, drops out. He can exercise no more influence in determining the price of these horses than I can in deter- mining the price of balloons. Bidding goes on, and the price is forced up to $60. Three horses are to be had at this price; but there are still five buyers the price goes above $60, and E drops out. At last the price reaches $70. There are now four sellers willing to part with their horses at this price; and four buyers willing to pay the price. Imagine that bidding goes on, and the price rises to $71. D would then drop out, and four horses would be offered, with only three buyers. Any one of the four sellers would rather sell at $70 than have his horse unsold; bidding among the sellers, therefore, forces the price back to $70. Under the conditions this price represents an equilibrium between the values of the buyers and those of the sellers. Let us imagine, however, that before the sale is actually effected, another buyer, with a maximum valuation of $110, appears. The price will then be forced above $70, and D will drop out. It will not reach $80, however, for then five sellers will compete to meet the needs of four buyers. The actual price will be fixed somewhere between $70 and $80. If an additional seller, with a valuation of $30, were to appear, the number of buyers remaining the same, the price will drop below $70, but not quite to $60. Where competition exists, then, the price will be fixed at such a point that all that is offered at a given price will be taken at that price. If we define as demand the aggregate of offers of money for a commodity at a given price, and as supply the aggregate of the commodity offered at the same 34 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS price, we may say that price is fixed at the point where de- mand and supply are equal. At a given time the aggregate demands for wheat at $2 a bushel may extend to one million bushels; but the sellers of wheat may be willing to place on the market two million bushels at that price. Manifestly $2 a bushel cannot be the price set by the market, for the owners of the second million bushels, not finding purchasers, will offer it for less. At a lower price, some sellers will drop out, and some additional purchasers will appear. At $1.50 a bushel, perhaps fifteen hundred thousand bushels will be offered, and the same amount taken. $1.50 is then the price that will actually be set. Now, not a single buyer pays more for the wheat than its effective utility to him, measured in terms of money. Some pay less than they would be willing to pay. These have a personal value which does not correspond with mar- ket value, and which has only an indirect influence in deter- mining it. On the side of the buyers the personal values that count most are those of the purchasers who find it just worth while to buy. For these are ready to drop out at any increase in price, and so tend to hold it at a given point. These buyers are known in ecomonics as the marginal buy- ers. On the sellers' side, the personal values that count most are those of the sellers who find it just worth while to remain in the market, since with a fall in price, these would drop out. Yet while it is the buyers and sellers who are just ready to drop out with changes in price — the marginal buyers and sellers — who at a given time hold the price where it is, price changes may take place in spite of them, through changes in the wants of many purchasers, or through the appearance of new sellers. The introduction of the automobile resulted in a new demand for gasolene, and as a consequence the price rose, eliminating the purchasers who had before been in a price-determining position. If alcohol should be sue- INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS 35 cessfully substituted for gasolene for the same purpose, the price of gasolene would fall and a new set of purchasers, who formerly had nothing to do with fixing its price, as they did not desire it enough to buy it, would come to occupy the position of controllers of the price. In existing conditions we do not find ourselves in the presence of unpriced goods upon which a price is to be placed. Everything that one wishes to buy already bears a price; one accepts the price, or refrains from purchasing. I com- pare my personal value of anything — say a hat — with the value of the commodity in the market. If I decide that a hat is worth more than $5 to me, I purchase it if it is to be had at that price. Parting with some of my money, each dollar I have is worth more to me ; and hats are worth less. Thus I make my personal value approximate that of the market. If I am a seller of hats, and I find that $5 are worth more to me than a hat, I willingly part with the hat at that price. Having m^ore dollars, one is worth less to me; having fewer hats, I am_ not so anxious to part with one. Thus by buying- and selling one makes his personal values conform more nearly to that of the market. At the same time, by taking a hat from the seller, I reduce by a trifle the member to be sold to other pur- chasers ; I make the hat sellers less anxious to sell, and con- tribute of my puny strength to draw up the general level of value of hats to my own personal value. So all of us who are purchasers are joining our efi:*orts to raise prices to a high level, although what we desire is low prices ; and all of us v/ho are sellers are exerting our combined strength to pull them down, although we are anxious to have high prices. Those of us who are least anxious to buy or to sell exercise an equalizing function; when the buyers' side prevails, and prices are rising, the least willing buyers drop out; and similarly with the least willing sellers, when the sellers succeed in pulling prices down. Of course if there is an increase in the number of buy- 36 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS ers, or if the wants of existing buyers are intensified, then the buyers will be successful in raising prices. On the other hand, if the number of sellers, or the amount which each can sell, increases, the sellers prevail in the price contest, and draw the price down. Now it is very difficult to describe the influences that increase the number of buyers, or the in- tensity of their desires. But it is easier to describe the in- fluences determining the number of sellers and the amount they will sell. If for any reason the price of wheat should rise to $2 a bushel, we can predict with absolute certainty that the number of sellers will go on increasing until the price comes down. $2 for wheat is therefore an abnormal, or unnatural, price. On the other hand, if the price were fifty cents a bushel, we may count with certainty that in time sellers will drop out, and the price will rise. Fifty cents is an abnormal price, just as $2 is. Between the two prices must somewhere be one that is normal or natural. The market price will be constantly rising above or falling Delow it ; yet there will always be an increase of sellers when the price is above the normal, and a diminution in the number of sellers when the price is below the normal ; consequently the price will fluctuate about this point, never remaining long much above or much below it. The next chapter will show what forces fix the normal price, or, to use a nearly equivalent term, normal value, under conditions of com- petition. CHAPTER III Normal Price At the close of the last chapter it was indicated that although market prices are continually fluctuating, they nev- ertheless tend to rise or fall toward a certain point, which may be called the normal or natural price. A particular fabric comes into vogue; everybody must have it, and as there is not an indefinite amount of it, its price rises. Per- haps it was worth $i a yard before fashion touched it with its magic wand; the price may easily become $5. Now, is this price one that is likely to continue — even supposing that the fashion should be transformed into a custom, and the enlarged demand for the fabric should thus become permanent ? Would it be safe for one to buy large stocks of this cloth, with the expectation of selling them at $5 a yard? Would it be wise for one to put up a mill for the manufacture of this kind of goods, with the ex- pectation that the high price would continue? There are conceivable conditions under which one might prudently do these things ; but in most cases it would be very bad business. Most probably, the price would sink again toward the $1 mark. In all likelihood $1 is about what that fabric will sell for in the long run. So it is with the great majority of the commodities sold on the market. Their prices may at any time double ; but in all probability this will be a transient phenomenon. If any- thing is sold at an extremely low price — a price that has rarely been known before — most probably this also is a transient phenomenon. And just as it would be bad busi- ness to buy large stocks, or build factories, in anticipation of the continuance of excessively high prices, so it would be folly to quit a business, or sell out all one's stock, because 38 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS of excessively low ones. The business man who is most likely to succeed is the one who has a due appreciation of normal price and who directs his business, so far as it is concerned with a more or less distant future, in accordance with its laws. Normal price, therefore, is a phenomenon of the greatest practical importance. And in so far as it deter- mines the direction of the productive forces of society, it is of the highest importance to the student of economics, as well as to the man of affairs. This is true even though actual prices may at any given time be above or below the normal, and may perhaps never remain for an appreciable time at precisely the normal level. The supply of most commodities may in some measure be increased or diminished at the will of the producers. Many producers are in a position to increase their output by slightly enlarging their working force, or by running over- time. Some producers are engaged in the manufacture of a number of different commodities, or of grades of one kind of commodity. By discontinuing the production of some of these and concentrating their energies on a single one, they are able to exert an appreciable influence upon supply. Moreover, there are always some persons who are in doubt whether or not they shall enter upon a certain line of pro- duction ; still others, now engaged in that line of production, who are in doubt whether or not they shall go out of busi- ness. When the price of a given commodity is very high, fac- tories producing that commodity run on full time, or over- time ; factories that would otherv/ise have produced several other commodities turn all their energies in this direction; manufacturers who were in doubt as to whether or not they should go on producing, find their doubt stilled; and new producers are lured into the industry. And this makes for an increased supply and a falling price. How long will the expansion of business continue? ^ The two factors determining the business conduct of a INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS 39 producer are price and cost of production.! In the cost of production are included the value of materials used up and the wear and tear and general depreciation of machinery, buildings, lands; interest on all capital used, whether bor- rowed, or owned by the producer; wages of all labor, whether hired or that of the producer himself ; premiums to insurance companies for the assumption of the risk of de- struction of buildings and stock; taxes, water rates, etc. If the price of a commodity exceeds its cost, including in the term all the above-named elements, the supply of the com- modity can be profitably increased. If the price just equals cost, there is no sufficient reason for either increasing or dimiriishing the supply. If the price is less than cost, the supply will diminish. Suppose that it costs an average manufacturer $i to produce a yard of woolen cloth. If he can sell it for $1, he will probably go on producing about as much this month as he did last. For this price enables him to pay his operatives, to pay interest on capital borrowed, to pay taxes and insurance premiums, etc. It also affords him as much of a reward for his labor of management as he could get if he placed his services at another manufacturer's dis- posal ; and as large a return on his own capital as he could get from any other equally safe investment. But suppose the price rises to $i.io. For every yard he can sell he gets ten cents over and above all costs. This amount we shall call a net profit. Of course he will desire to sell as many yards as possible. He will work his mill to its fullest ca- pacity; if he has looms that are pretty well worn out, he makes haste to replace them with more efficient machinery ; if he has been contemplating the erection of an annex to his mill, he pushes the work forward as rapidly as he can. Every other manufacturer in his line does the same. And in time the increased supply of the fabric forces the price down, until it reaches $i, where the manufacturer no longer has any reason for increasing operations. Possibly 40 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS the price goes still lower and reaches ninety cents. This does not pay all costs, but the manufacturer may still continue to produce, as it may be better for him to pocket his loss than to let the mill stand idle. But it is plain that he will curtail operations wherever he can. He will discharge his least efficient workmen, and discontinue the use of the least effi- cient machines. Every other manufacturer, in greater or less degree, is doing likewise. So the supply falls away and the price rises toward $i. This, then, is the normal price — a price that just covers cost of production, using the term cost of production so as to include all the items enu- merated above. If the price of a commodity exceeds cost, then, forces are set in motion which tend to bring the price back to the cost level. Now, no producer wishes to sell at cost ; every pro- ducer desires an excess above cost, and the greater the ex- cess, the better he likes it. If a manufacturer can produce a certain fabric at a total cost of $i, and can sell it at $1.10, he enjoys a very comfortable net profit; and the same thing is true of all other manufacturers in the same line. And they might continue to secure this net profit if each one would but refrain from enlarging his output. There is, then, something illogical in the conduct of the several pro- ducers, viewed in a certain way. Each of them is anxious to get as large a sum of net profit as possible ; but the result of their action is that nobody long continues to get any net profit at all. The reason for this is that there are too many of them for any one to have a perceptible influence over price. Suppose our manufacturer increases his output loo per cent. Probably this would not reduce the price one-fiftieth of a cent a yard. Therefore he obtains nearly twice as large a sum of net profit as he would have done if he had kept his output unchanged in volume. The temptation to increase his output, then, is very strong; it is strengthened by the fact that he knows that every one of the other thousand pro- INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS 4I ducers is subject to the same temptation; some will yield to it; then others, finally all. And those who yield first will be the ones who will get the greatest sum of profit. Under the circumstances, the best thing for the manufacturer to do is to yield to the temptation the moment it offers. And this is what must inevitably occur where competi- tion exists — where each producer may increase his output if he desires to do so. However much it may be against the interests of all the members of a group of producers to in- crease operations, it is to the interest of each one to increase his own operations, if the price of his products exceeds their total cost. Often, in American history, have different classes of producers planned a universal curtailment of production, in order to force prices above cost level and hold them there. At one time the producers of raw petroleum, at another time the producers of wheat, at still another time the producers of cotton, have beguiled themselves with such plans. If each cotton producer would plant ten per cent, less ground next year, the price of cotton would probably rise twenty per cent., and every producer would get more money for less labor. Perhaps the cotton producers may make a general agreement to this effect. Well, every producer who violated his agreement, and doubled his acreage, would get the benefit of the high price, and the additional benefit from an unus- ually large quantity to sell. Each producer, having his own interest at heart, and suspecting the integrity of the motives of others, would be under the strongest temptation to in- crease his output. Some would refrain from doing so; but enough would increase their acreage to keep cotton very near to cost price. But let us suppose that the cotton producers were able to bind themselves legally to diminish production, ten, twenty, fifty per cent., or that some Croesus should buy up all the cotton lands and fix production at the figure which seemed most profitable to him. In either case, prices would 42 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS cease to hover about cost of production. They would be such as always to afford a net profit. Such prices, in con- trast with normal or competitive prices, are called monopoly prices. They are controlled by laws, but these laws are quite different from those which prevail in competitive in- dustry. To state the law of monopoly price will be the chief purpose of the next chapter. It is clear that the only reason why the value of a com- modity tends to equal its cost of production is the automatic increase or decrease of supply when price temporarily swerves away from cost. It has already been pointed out that through combination such an increase in supply as will reduce prices to cost of production may be prevented. If for any other reason supply is unable to change, the price of a commodity may remain permanently high, or perma- nently low. Let us assume that a certain country has only one armor plate works, and owing to a deficiency in the public revenues would prefer to cease strengthening its navy rather than pay a price for armor plate corresponding to cost of production. The cost to the armor plate manu- facturer may perhaps be divided into the following elements : Interest on capital invested in buildings and lands, fifty per cent. ; cost of raw material, fuel, etc., twenty-five per cent. ; wages of labor employed, twenty-five per cent. The price offered for armor plate, let us assume, is sixty per cent, of the total cost. This price will cover the cost of materials, labor, etc., and will yield in addition one-fifth of the normal return on the capital invested in buildings, machinery, land. If the owner of the plate works refuses to take orders for plate, he will have to close down his works ; in that case he will secure no return on his capital at all. Clearly, it will pay him better to continue production. But suppose the price offered for armor plate is only forty per cent, of its cost. In that case, if the owner of the works is paying his men exactly what they could get in other in- dustries, and is paying merely the market price for his raw INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS 43 materials and fuel, he will have to close down his works. For by continuing operations he would lose not only interest on his fixed capital, but would also incur a net loss on every dollar he paid out for labor or for materials. Conversely, if a period of financial prosperity should enable the nation to enter upon an ambitious naval pro- gramme, the price of armor plate might rise considerably above cost of production without inducing any one to put additional capital into such an industry, from which it could not easily be withdrawn in case prices should fall. As sup- ply would not increase, therefore, price might long remain above the level of cost of production. When a street railway line is constructed, it is expected that the receipts from fares will cover all costs of operation, together with interest on all capital expended in constructing the line. Possibly the traffic will be so much less than was anticipated that the receipts will do little more than cover costs of operation, leaving hardly any return for the capital sunk in the road. This capital cannot, however, be removed to a more lucrative enterprise. To raise fares, even if this were permitted by the charter of the company, might still further discourage traffic and reduce net receipts. The street railway line will therefore be compelled to operate at a loss, preferring a small return on fixed capital to none at all. On the other hand, if the receipts are far in excess of cost, including under that head interest on fixed capital as well as operating expenses, it will still be impossible for other capitalists to construct another line on the same street, and so reduce fares to the cost level through competition. Similarly, it cannot be said that there is any tendency for railway freight and passenger charges to approximate cost of production. For the most part, such charges are gov- erned by other laws than those of normal price. The laws of normal price operate wherever supply auto- matically increases or diminishes with increase or decline of price. And this is particularly the case with common manu- 44 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS factures. In a manufacturing industry there may be i,ooo mills producing the same grade of goods and selling them in a common market at a uniform price. Fifty of these mills become so dilapidated each year, through age, that they are dismantled ; fifty mills of equal capacity must be put up each year in order to maintain a constant supply of goods. If prices are so low that not all costs of production are covered, no new mills are erected to take the place of those which are abandoned, and a part of the supply fails. If prices are above cost, instead of fifty new mills, there may be lOO, and the increased supply tends to draw prices back toward the cost level. In the case of agricultural products much the same thing is true. If the price of wheat is high this year, more land will probably be prepared for the wheat crop of next year. Of course, if the price has been low for a series of years pre- ceding, it may be assumed that it is only some chance occur- rence that has raised the price — a famine in India or in Rus- sia, a foreign war, or some other transitory cause. In that case the prudent farmer will hesitate about applying an un- due share of his energies to wheat production. The supply of wheat, for the next year, may not be materially increased ; and owing to a similar unanticipated cause, may sell at an abnormally high price. Abnormally low prices in any year may be ascribed, by most farmers, to transient causes, and may lead to no decrease in acreage. Thus, for a period of years the products of agriculture may respond very slug- gishly to the influences of price. Again, it is possible that the high price of wheat during a period of years may lead to an unduly great expansion of the wheat growing area. As a consequence, so much wheat may be grown that for another period of years the price will be abnormally low — too low to compensate the farmer for his costs. And thus it is not impossible that the price of a commodity may constantly be alternating between an abnormally high level and an abnormally low one. Yet the INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS 45 high price must in the end bring about a reaction, just as the low price must do so. And for this reason we may call such prices abnormal, as contrasted with a theoretical price which would not show a tendency to be followed by a reaction in either direction. It is often impossible to tell exactly what it costs to produce a particular commodity. Some comm.odities are in- variably produced together, as beef and hides, cotton and cotton seed, wool and mutton. In most great industries, it is found possible to make use of parts of the raw material that are ordinarily regarded as waste. Thus, in the refining of petroleum, besides the main product, kerosene, a host of by-products — gasolene, lubricants, tars, dyes, etc. — are pro- duced. How much does it cost to produce these? Nobody can tell. They could not be produced at all, in commercial quantities, were it not for the immense capital engaged primarily in the production of kerosene. Part of the cost of the use of that capital ought to be counted as cost of by- products. But it is not possible to say how great that part should be. No one can say how much it costs to produce hides, or cotton seed, or wool. In such cases, there is of course an ascertainable cost, and hence a definite normal value, of live cattle, of sheep, of unginned cotton, of petro- leum products as a whole. If the price of beef, added to the price of hides, is more than reasonable compensation for the cost of raising cattle, the business of cattle raising tends to expand. And so with other cases of joint products. Where the cost of a particular commodity is ascertainable, and any one is free to enter upon its production, the price constantly tends toward the level of cost. Cost, then, may be said to determine normal value. It is, however, to be borne in mind that cost itself is something variable and fluc- tuating. Cost of production in any industry is greater for some producers than for others. A given grade of cotton goods may be produced either in Rhode Island or in North Carolina. It may cost an average of ten cents a yard in 46 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS Rhode Island, and nine cents a yard in North Carolina. Some Rhode Island factories are better than others ; perhaps the cost of producing the cloth is eight cents in the best factories and twelve cents in the worst equipped ones. And similar gradations may exist in North Carolina. So when we say that normal price is fixed by cost of production, exactly what do we mean? Average cost? Greatest cost? Least cost ? It may be supposed that a factory which produces at a cost of eight cents will run on full time, and with full work- ing force, if the price is 8^2 cents. If the price is ten or twelve cents, it can do no more, unless it can be expanded by the erection of an annex. Let us suppose that it would take a year to construct such an annex and get it into work- ing order. In the meantime the factory produces as much as it can when the price rises ; but so it would have done if the price had not risen. So far as this factory is concerned, the rise in price does not immediately create an expansion of supply that reacts upon the price. This factory, then, can- not be said to be in a position to control prices. But let us suppose that there are other factories which produce at a cost of nine, ten, eleven, twelve cents a yard. So long as the price remains at 8^ cents, none of these, w^e may assume, will be in operation. As soon as the price rises to nine cents, the factories producing at that cost will open their doors, and by increasing the supply of goods, will tend to check further rise in prices. If prices rise nevertheless, the factories producing at a cost of ten cents will begin operations, and will exert their influence on supply and on price. When the price rises to twelve cents, it will be the factories producing at this cost that will tend to check a further rise in price. When the price is twelve cents, the costs of production of the better equipped mills — those producing at eight and one-half, nine, ten, and eleven cents — have little to do with the determining of price. If the price rose a little higher, or fell a little lower, these f ac- INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS 47 tories would continue to produce exactly as much as they do when the price remains at twelve cents. They do not, therefore, regulate the supply. This the twelve-cent mills do, since they are ready to drop out, and reduce supply, if the price falls. It is not to be understood, however, that a manufacturer can say : "I produce at a cost of twelve cents ; I must have at least that price," and so force the price up to twelve cents. If the market demands that manufacturer's contribution to the supply, it must pay twelve cents for every part of the supply. The manufacturer in the least favorable position cannot fix the price at his cost. He can only withhold what he might have supplied, and so bring to bear upon the market some small pressure, making for higher prices. It is only in a restricted sense, then, that we can say that normal prices are fixed by cost of production. Those who produce at a cost of twelve cents, by their action in placing a product on the market or withholding it, make an attempt at holding the price at that point. Perhaps the task is too great for them; the price slips away; and those producing at a cost of eleven cents make an endeavor, by the same means, to hold prices at their cost level. They also may be unequal to the task, but at last the price rests in the hands of producers who are just able to hold it at their costs. We may think of these as being on the fringe or ''margin" of production ; they are often called, in economics, the marginal producers. The price does not, however, rest permanently with the same marginal producers. Those producers whose costs are less than the price are continually reaping profits ; they invest them in new mills, equally well equipped, and borrow capital further to increase their productive capacity. In time they greatly increase their output, and this tends to reduce the price of the commodity. The producers who are holding the price at their cost level find the burden growing heavier and heavier; soon the price breaks away from them al- 48 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS together, and is held for a time at the cost level of slightly more efficient producers. But the most efficient producers continue to enlarge their works; an increasing supply is thrown upon the market, and the price settles to a still lower level, where it equals cost to producers who formerly en- joyed a slight profit. In this way prices are continually gravitating toward the level of cost to the most efficient pro- ducers. It may therefore be said that for a short period of time, price is determined by the costs of production of those who produce at the greatest expense, but whose contribution to the supply is necessary in order that the existing demand may be met. In the progress of time, however, such pro- ducers are unable to hold prices at their cost level, and are forced out of business. The final adjustment — if it should ever be attained — would leave price at the level of cost to the most efficient producers, all of whom would stand on a plane of equality as to costs. This does not mean, however, that the price of a given commodity must continue to decrease. The cost itself may increase, for the more efficient as well as for the less efficient producers. As we have used the term, cost includes the value of raw materials and fuel ; interest on capital, whether fixed in land, buildings, and machinery, or invested in raw materials, etc. ; wages of all labor employed ; and a number of lesser items — taxes, insurance premiums, etc. Now, every one of these elements in cost is perpetually fluctuating in magnitude according to its own peculiar laws. The sources of raw material may be approaching exhaustion; wages and interest may be rising; taxes may be growing heavier. But while such an increase in costs may prevent the more efficient factory from producing as cheaply as be- fore, it burdens the less efficient proportionately. It cannot, then, prevent prices from tending toward costs to the most efficient producer. CHAPTER IV Monopoly Price As has been shown in the preceding chapter, the mech^ anism which keeps prices hovering about cost of production consists in the automatic adjustment of supply and demand. If price rises, supply increases, and thus price is forced down again. If then the supply of a commodity can be controlled by the producers, the price is also within their control. With this control, the producers are in the happy situation where they can, within limits, enrich themselves at their pleasure. It is no wonder, then, that producers and dealers from very early times have sought to bring supply under control. Joseph controlled the total supply of grain in Egypt, we are told; he was thereby enabled to charge whatever prices he pleased; and the prices he fixed were such that he got in exchange for his grain all the possessions that the Egyptians had. In ancient and mediaeval times, when roads were bad and the costs of carriage prohibitive, whoever should buy up the stock of grain in a town would practically make himself master of the town. He could measure out the grain in small quantities, charging whatever prices seemed good to him. Quite naturally, then, men desired to monopolize the neces- saries of life. There was great wealth to be gained in this manner. And quite as naturally, the townsmen, who were thus compelled to pay high prices, desired to hang the monopolists, or at least to put them in prison. Monopolies we still have; and few of us have much love for them. But the monopolists of modern times can- not charge such exorbitant prices as their mediaeval and ancient prototypes. The mightiest monopoly in the United States can draw to itself only a fraction of the wealth of the community. The prices which it can fix and the profits 50 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS which it can enjoy are strictly limited by economic laws, although the limitations are not so narrow, perhaps, as we should wish them to be. Before considering what these laws are, we must exam- ine the conditions under which monopoly may arise. One possible way has already been indicated. All the producers of a given commodity may agree among themselves not to sell below a certain price, or, what would amount to the same thing, not to produce more than an amount so small as to command scarcity prices. If the number of producers is small — say half a dozen — such an agreement might stand. No one could materially increase his sales without attracting attention ; moreover, no one could increase his sales without an immediate effect on price. If the producers number millions, such an agreement would be empty words ; almost any one could violate it without detection, and without any appreciable effect on price. And the number of violators of the agreement would be so great that no control of supply or of price could be exercised. When the number of producers is small, then, there may be effective control of supply. But such control cannot long be retained unless new producers can be kept out of the field. The producers of cotton yarn of the higher grades are not so very numerous. It is therefore conceivable that they might agree to limit supply and force the price to a point paying a "fair" profit. But it is not a very difficult matter to build and equip a mill to produce a given grade of cotton yarn. If then the price were forced to a high level, new producers would soon appear. These v/ould enjoy the bene- fit of the high price, although to effect sales they would have to undercut the prices of the combine. The latter would have to reduce its prices ; the new producers would then cut still lower, and so on until the price had reached cost of production. Indeed, the price would almost certainly go lower than this, for the number of producers, each striving INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS $1 to get more customers, would have increased. The last state of the cotton yarn business, accordingly, would be far worse than its first. We have had in America not a few examples of attempted monopolies which in the end merely intensified competition. If the industry in question requires a very high grade of skilled labor, and the members of the combine control the whole supply of labor of this grade, the monopoly may rest secure until new labor can be trained for the shops of would- be competitors. If the only satisfactory way of training such labor is through apprenticeship under men already working in the trade, it becomes difficult indeed for a com- petitor to get an independent supply of labor. This situation might become a serious one in some industries were it not for the fact that it is not easy for one set of employers per- manently to control their workmen. The latter would know that at any time they could thwart their employers' schemes by accepting employment with competitors ; and this knowl- edge would be made good use of, in forcing constantly higher wages. Where monopolies of this kind have arisen, they have generally been broken up on account of disputes between the employers and their workmen. Some products depend upon supplies of raw material that are found in comparatively few parts of the earth, and in limited quantity. If a combination of producers can get possession of all or most of the mining or agricultural lands which are capable of yielding a certain product, they may win their desired freedom from the danger of new competi- tors. Anthracite coal, for example, is found in only a re- stricted area in the United States. A combination of capitalists of very great wealth might with comparative ease control the total output — and indeed, something of the kind now exists. Such a combination has nothing to fear from new competitors, although of course it must meet the com- petition of producers of other fuels. Where a combination does not enjoy the ownership of 52 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS limited natural resources, it may yet attain much the same result through systematic intimidation of those who might desire to become competitors in its field. The combination may be very rich, and quite ready to lose money on some part of its sales whenever this may be necessary to stifle compe- tition. Let us suppose that there is a combination of the more important producers of coal who yet have nothing like complete ownership of the coal lands. There may be a number of small competitors whose natural market is a city which we will call X. Other markets, we will assume, are so far distant that cost of transportation prohibits their sup- ply from the mines of the small producers. The combine, on the other hand, may have mines from which it may supply the market X, as well as a host of mines supplying other cities. If then it desires to destroy the business of its small competitors, it may decide, for a while, to sell coal in X for less than the cost of raising it from the pit. This the com- bination can afford to do, because it is enjoying high profits from its monopolistic position in the supplying of other markets. Of course the small competitors can sell no coal at prices which will meet those of the combine; very soon they become discouraged and retire from business. Then the combine can raise prices of coal in X to a profit-yielding point. The small producers will probably not again attempt to compete, knowing that the same tactics will again be em- ployed to destroy their business. Of course, if coal were easy to transport, this method would prove very expensive to the monopolistic combination. An enterprising dealer in the town X, finding that the combination sold coal there at much lower prices than in town Y, might buy up coal in the former place and ship it to the latter. On every ton of coal sold in X, we have as- sumed, the combination is losing money ; and every ton sold in Y helps to depress the price there, to the further disad- vantage of the combine. In a sense, it would be underselling itself. INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS 53 Accordingly, some other method of destroying competi- tors must be employed when the commodities which it is sought to monopolize are of little weight and bulk, as com- pared with their value, and hence easily transported. Sup- pose that a monopolistic combination controls most of the manufacture of cigars, and that an overbold outsider, anxious to share the benefits of high prices, enters the field. He may place on the market an excellent brand of cigars, charging for them less than the combine charges for similar ones. The combine cannot lower the prices of all cigars in the competitor's vicinity, for in that case dealers will buy them up and express them to all parts of the country; and thus the combine would be inflicting losses upon itself. But there is another method which it will find efficacious. Let us say that the independent producer calls his brand of cigars the "Rex." It is his all ; his fate is bound up with its fortune. The combine has 500 brands ; it makes profits on all of them. Accordingly, it can afford to put out a new brand of cigars — say the "Regina" — for half the price of the Rex, though of as good quality, and place it on the market wherever the Rex is sold. Before long the Rex is no longer purchased; its producer goes out of business. Then the combine puts worse tobacco into the Regina, until at last, like all its other products, this cigar is dear at the price.* Some businesses, by their very nature, tend to come un- der unified control. The supplying of gas to a city is of this character. A dozen competing companies, in a great city, would be an intolerable nuisance; besides, the cost of pro- ducing and distributing gas would be vastly increased by such competitive supply. A single street railway system, or a single telephone company, is much more convenient, and can operate more economically than competing businesses could do. A majority of the towns in the United States are * For the above, and other methods employed by monopolistic combinations in keeping competitors out of the field, see Clark, The Control of Trusts, Ch. IV. 54 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS served by only one railway ; and this is of course in the posi- tion of a monopoly. In most of the remaining cities there can never be more than three or four competing railways, at most; and these, by virtue of their small number and by virtue of the peculiarly disastrous effects of competition in the railway business upon the railways themselves — which we cannot in this place discuss — almost certainly operate under agreements as to charges. There is, then, a large field of modern business in which monopoly is natural; and in this entire field, barring the existence of statutes fixing prices and charges, the monopolist may fix his terms accord- ing to his own views of what is profitable to him. A monopoly may also be created by law. In certain countries the manufacture of tobacco is monopolized by the state. Since no one can purchase from any other seller, the state can charge such prices for tobacco as will give a rev- enue to the treasury. A monopoly created by law may be given to a private individual. Once this was done for the benefit of royal favorites ; but nowadays such a monopoly is given in return for some service to the public. A city may thus give a monopoly of the sale of refreshments in a public park; but the dealer is expected to pay for it, either in a lump sum, or in a percentage of his profits. But the most common kind of monopoly created by law is the patent. Invent a new kind of machine, a new process of treating raw materials, a new kind of fuel or way of utilizing fuel. If the invention is really new, the govern- ment, in most modern countries, stands ready to protect you for a certain number of years in the exclusive enjoyment of it. If it is an article for sale, you may manufacture it and sell it for whatever you can get. You may sell your right, and the buyer proceeds to enjoy the monopoly. This mo- nopoly is of the strongest ; all the power of the state can be invoked to keep competitors out of the field. The above are by no means all the possible ways by which monopoly control may be secured. They are only the INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS 55 more common ways. Now it must be plain that there will be a great deal of monopoly in a society like our own. Com- bines exist ; limited natural resources are controlled ; devices for intimidation of possible competitors have reached a high degree of perfection ; more and more businesses are develop- ing into a state in which, like the manufacture of gas for a municipality, they are natural monopolies. Patents, also, were never more numerous ; and as they often fall into the control of businesses having other sources of monopoly power, they are a potent cause of monopoly growth. We may therefore expect to find in actual business, be- sides the branches in which prices are controlled by cost of production, other branches in which the producers have more or less power to hold prices above cost of production. This power varies from monopoly to monopoly, according as com- petitors are excluded by a strong means or by weak ones. It also varies according to laws which have only an indirect connection with competition. Suppose that a monopoly has complete control of the salt that is to be sold in the United States. It may cost one cent a pound to produce it. At what price will the monopoly sell it? If the price is one cent, perhaps one billion pounds will be sold. If the price were raised to two cents, who would eat his food unsalted ? Who would economize salt in the least? It is safe to say that there are few persons in the United States so poor that they would not go on eating as much salt as before. And the same thing would be true if the price v/ere raised to five cents a pound — a price of which four-fifths would be monopoly profit. But not all the salt is for table use ; a large part of the total supply is used for live stock and for manufacturing purposes. If the price of salt rises, the use of it for these purposes will decline. When salt is very cheap many farmers scatter it on the ground for their cattle, or leave it in troughs with no shelter, where the weather devours more of it than do the cattle. High price would mean economy. 56 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS So, at tvv'o cents a pound, probably not more than 900,000,000 pounds will be used, instead of 1,000,000,000. At five cents a pound the amount taken might shrink to 800,000,000 pounds ; at ten cents, to 700,000,000 ; at twenty, to 500,000,- 000. Were the price forced up to $1 a pound, very likely great economy would be exercised even in the use of salt in human food. Perhaps not more than 80,000,000 pounds would be used. Now, while the monopoly would make the enormous profit of ninety-nine cents a pound at the last-mentioned price, this would be a very irrational price for it to set. The total profit from the sale of salt would, according to our as- sumed volume of sales, be $79,200,000. And this would be much better than selling 1,000,000,000 pounds at cost, or 900,000,000 at two cents. The latter price would yield just $9,000,000 profit. At five cents the monopoly would get a profit of $32,000,000 ; at ten cents, of $63,000,000 ; at twenty cents, $95,000,000. So twenty cents is really a more profit- able price for the monopoly than $1. At twenty-five cents, however, 400,000,000 pounds might be taken ; and this would mean a profit aggregating $96,000,000. This, then, is a still better price than twenty cents, from the monopolists' point of view. Let us suppose that at thirty cents 300,000,- 000 pounds will be taken. The profit at this price would amount to only $87,000,000. The price, accordingly, is too high; and the best price for the monopolist lies between twenty-five and thirty cents. Of course this would be an exorbitant price; and far more extortionate than any existing monopoly price. But given the conditions — a monopoly of salt — -extortionate prices could be collected. One must have salt ; he must have a certain amount of it. There is nothing in the world that can be substituted for it. And even if the price were exor- bitant, it would form no very large item in any one's expen- diture. No one would leave the country to escape the mo- nopoly. INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS 57 Let us suppose, now, that a monopoly has gained control of the entire supply of beef in the United States. Perhaps the cost price at which beef could be placed on the market is ten cents a pound. With beef at this price, the American people might conceivably eat loo pounds per capita — 8,000,- 000,000 pounds in round numbers. At eleven cents, some of the poorest people would cease eating beef and use mutton or pork instead, or use less meat of any kind. Perhaps the amount consumed would fall to 7,000,000,000 pounds. That would give the beef monopoly a princely income — $70,000,- 000. At twelve cents the amount consumed might fall to 6,000,000,000 pounds; but this would yield a net profit of $120,000,000; and if the amount at thirteen cents fell to 5,000,000,000 pounds, the profit would yet amount to $150,- 000,000. Fourteen cents and 4,000,000,000 pounds would be still better for the monopoly — $160,000,000. But fifteen cents and 3,000,000,000 would be a step backward, for the profit would be only $150,000,000. Fourteen cents, then, is the most that the monopoly could wisely charge. Of course, if the demand did not shrink so rapidly as I have assumed, the maximum price could safely be placed at a higher figure. If the shrinkage were more rapid than I have assumed, fourteen cents would be too high. If it is the intention of the monopolist simply to ex- ploit the beef market for one year — to corner the present supply, make the most out of it, and then retire to live on his plunder — he may find that at fourteen cents there will be no greater shrinkage of demand than has been assumed in the example, and this will then be the best price for him to set. Most persons who are accustomed to this article of diet will continue to buy it even at the higher price. But in a year more and more of them will form other habits. A corner in beef organized in the following year might not be able to charge more than twelve cents without diminishing total net profit ; and in the third year a corner might not be able to charge more than eleven cents. Accordingly, a monopolist who 58 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS does not mean to retire from business must generally avoid charging a price that would give the highest possible returns for one year. He must fix prices in such a way as to keep the bulk of his custom from year to year. And this is one reason why modern monopolists are less extortionate than the ancient and mediaeval "engrossers" of the neces- saries of life. As a rule, the modern monopolist hopes for steadily increasing profits from a growing business ; he there- fore cultivates his clientele through prices that are moderate. If a ring of speculators of immense wealth should buy up the entire American cotton crop, they could fix the price of cotton at twice the normal price, and yet sell most of it. Cotton fabrics would advance in price, but not proportion- ately, for many persons would go without cotton cloth rather than pay unreasonably high prices. The profits of cotton manufacturers would fall ; wages of cotton operatives would be reduced. The cotton manufacture would decline; many cotton operatives would go into other employments. Cotton production in Egypt, India, and Australia would be stimu- lated. It would take more than a year, however, for such adjustments to take place. In the meantime the speculators would have sold their cotton at high prices, and reaped their extortionate profits. The injury occasioned by the changes in cotton manufacture would fall upon the producers of the next American cotton crop. If a combination of capitalists were to secure possession of the entire business of petroleum refining, it would be no less easy for them to obtain exorbitant profits for one year. But the decline in consumption that would follow, when time had been given the people to provide themselves with other sources of light and power, would seriously impair the future profits of the petroleum monopoly. Now, no profit, however exorbitant, on a single year's sales, is to be com- pared with comfortably high profits for an indefinite series of years. Great fortunes are to be obtained through the permanent monopolization of the means of producing a cer- INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS 59 tain commodity, rather than through cornering the visible supply and exacting excessive prices, without regard to the effect of the policy on future sales. For this reason mo- nopolies of the permanent kind are continually increasing in number and importance, while it is only rarely that a tem- porary monopoly is successfully carried through. Of course there are some classes of consumers who will pay increased prices without a murmur, while other classes will not only feel greatly aggrieved, but will even refuse to buy, when prices are appreciably increased. To the rich it makes little difference whether beef is high or low. If the monopoly can array its customers in groups^ according to their readiness to pay high prices, it can grade its prices ac- cordingly. The classes that will endure only a slight in- crease in price are given prices so moderate that they con- tinue to buy, while the classes that are less apt to complain over an increase are forced to pay prices that yield a higher profit. This would be much better for the monopoly than to fix an average price which would drive away the former classes, and not exploit the latter to the highest possible degree. How then may a monopoly make such a division of its customers into classes according to their profit-yielding ca- pacity? One way consists in different prices for different localities. If there is greater per capita wealth in Califor- nia than in North Dakota, a monopoly would charge higher prices in the former than in the latter State, even allowing for all costs of transportation. Suppose that the cost of production of beef for North Dakota is ten cents and the cost of transportation practically nothing; the cost of pro- duction of beef for California we may assume is the same, and the cost of shipping two cents a pound. The beef may be sold in Dakota for eleven cents and for fifteen in Califor- nia — giving a net profit of one cent in the former State and three in the latter. Of course, the difference could be as great as this only in case shipping beef in small quantities is 60 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS expensive; otherwise outsiders would buy beef in Dakota at eleven cents, ship it to California, and make a good profit. And here we have one limitation upon a monopoly's power to vary in its charges for different localities. The different cannot permanently remain at a figure which is greater than the sum an outsider would have to pay in transporting the monopoly's goods from the point where they are cheap to the point where they are dear. In the case of many goods, however, different qualities are sold to different classes of customers. The choicest cuts of meat go to one set of consumers, and in the remaining cuts, in order of toughness, to the various sets of consumers who have less to spend. Now the consumers of the cheapest beef may stand a slight increase in price before substituting some- thing else for beef; while the consumers of the best quality may see the price double before substituting even a cheaper grade. The far-sighted monopolist, then, instead of in- creasing the prices of all grades uniformly, will so distribute the increase of price as to burden each class of customers as much as they will bear without withdrawing custom. In some cases where no real differences in quality exist, the consumer is made to believe that there are such differ- ences. Some years ago — and perhaps to-day — there were several grades of salt in the market, selling at different prices. The manufacturer who produced them all has ad- mitted that they were all exactly the same. The classes who could afford to pay high prices for salt bought the grade that was alleged to be the best; those who could pay less bought cheaper grades. Thus the manufacturer, who en- joyed a limited monopoly, was able to make each class of customers pay according to ability. It is easy to see how far this principle might be carried in the case of such articles as soap, chocolate, canned goods.* It is a wise man who * Some excellent examples of this kind of juggling with the con- sumer's desire for good qualities are to be found in Professor Ely's Monopolies and Trusts, INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS 6l knows what ingredients go into these commodities; and if the manufacturer, who must know, says that one is purer or more choice than another, what can you or I do but accept his statement and pay the higher price for the so-called better quality ? It must already be sufficiently evident that the monopo- list who wishes to get the very highest possible profit has a very complicated problem, even in the case of goods ready for consumption. In the case of goods that may also serve as means for further production, the problem is still more complicated. Let us take as an example anthracite coal. Part of the supply is used to heat dwellings and other build- ings ; part of it is used to provide power for manufacturing. Suppose now that in New York City, where smokeless fuel is required by public authority, and where it would be some- what difficult to find a substitute for anthracite, the price is forced up to $io a ton. The very poor might prefer to freeze rather than pay the price; but the great majority of the inhabitants of New York would continue to buy anthra- cite much as before. Now in all the great cities of the North Atlantic sea- board anthracite is extensively used in manufacturing oper- ations. If the price goes up to $io — almost double the ordi- nary price — many manufacturers will substitute coke or bituminous coal. If these are not to be had, factory after factory closes down, since manufacturers in this section have to sell their goods in competition with manufacturers in the Middle West, where bituminous coal is cheap. The great demand for anthracite for manufacturing can remain only if the price remains moderate. Exorbitant prices for this fuel, if made universal, would result in limiting the consumption of it from year to year. Why might not very high prices be charged in New York City, and more reasonable ones in the factory towns ? Of course, if the price were much higher in New York than in Newark or Paterson, enterprising teamsters would cart 62 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS coal from those cities into New York. The difference in price between different places cannot greatly exceed cost of transportation. The profit of our imaginary anthracite monopoly then is bound up with the welfare of the manufacturing commu- nity. In like manner, a railway may be the only means of carrying goods to and from a given agricultural region ; but if it charges very high rates on what it carries, the region is soon impoverished; lands go out of cultivation; towns decay; and their inhabitants move to districts where better transportation conditions prevail. And with the ruin of local business would come the ruin of the railway. So narrowly are the charges of railways limited — even though they possess a monopoly — ^that in perhaps a ma- jority of cases they cannot charge more than will cover expenses and pay a reasonable return on the capital sunk in the road. To sum up then, even an absolute monopoly is limited in its power to extort money from the public. The more elastic the demand for a commodity — i. e., the more readily demand increases with a fall in price, or diminishes with a rise in price — the more moderate will be the price which yields the highest return to the monopolist. And the more permanent the plans of the monopolist, the less does he seek the maximum profit for a single year. Now, the demand for most commodities is growing more and more elastic. We have more wants to satisfy than our ancestors had; and if a monopoly gets control of the means of satisfying one want, and seeks to extort money from us by this means, we may leave this want unsatisfied and turn our attention to some other one which demands satisfaction only less insistently, and which we can gratify without paying tribute to a monopoly. At the same time, the monopolists are growing more and more far-sighted; they refuse to sacrifice steady profits through years to the desire for a huge profit for a brief time. Thus economic forces INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS 63 are at work limiting more and more the possibilities of vast monopoly profits. Yet the prices of goods controlled by monopolies would be considerably higher than competitive prices were the monopolies really absolute. There are, however, few even of the most powerful trusts that have gained anything like complete control in their fields. There remain competitors, often very active ones, ready to expand their output when- ever prices become very high. What an intelligent monopo- list will aim to do, therefore, is to fix prices high enough to make a good profit, but not so high as to give a great induce- ment to new producers to enter the field, nor so high as seriously to limit his market in the long run. While monopoly prices tend to remain above cost of production, yet there is always some relation between the cost of production and the price. There may not be an excessive difiference between the two. To arrive at a more thorough- going explanation of price, therefore, it will be necessary to analyze further the costs of production and to study the forces which fix the rates paid for the goods and services that enter into the work of production. CHAPTER V The Cost of Production The preceding chapters have shown that the costs of production play an exceedingly important part in determin- ing the values of goods. Commodities produced under com- petitive conditions tend to sell at cost ; commodities the pro- duction of which is controlled by monopolies sell above cost, as a rule ; but at prices which usually stand in a close relation to the costs of production. Accordingly, to carry our study of values a step farther, we must enter upon a study of the laws governing the costs of production. At the outset it is worth while to bear in mind that what is "cost of production" to one man or class of men is "in- come" to another man or class of men. To the employing producer who conducts an independent enterprise (and whom we shall therefore call the enterpriser) wages are sim- ply a part of the cost of production. To the workman wages are earnings, income. The enterpriser counts in his outlay or costs the interest on the capital invested in his plant. To the capitalist this same item is income. The price of the coal which is consumed in providing power represents nothing but an expense to the enterpriser; but to the coal mine op- erator the price of the coal represents gross income. A closer examination of this gross income shows that it con- tains a net income to the coal mine operator; wages of labor employed in mining; interest on capital invested in the business, and certain other items — a sum for the replace- ment of machinery and other apparatus worn out, taxes, etc. — which further analysis will show to be in part or wholly incomes to some one. But we are not concerned in this chapter with incomes as such; our immediate concern is with cost of production, INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS 65 Our point of view will be that of the enterpriser, whom we shall assume to be acting frankly with a view to his own interest, paying no higher wages or interest than he is com- pelled to pay. The materials that enter into production are commodi- ties, and their market value and normal value are determined much as the market and normal values of the commodities fit for immediate consumption. We may examine briefly the process by which cotton yarn, the material of the cotton weaving industry, is valued. A multitude of weavers desire to buy it; some of them would pay a price of lox per hun- dred pounds rather than go without it; others would pay only 5x per hundred pounds, A multitude of sellers stand ready to furnish cotton yarn; some may be willing to sell at 5x rather than not sell at all ; others may be willing to sell only if the price is lox. What price will actually be set? Just as in the case of commodities for direct use, the market price will be fixed at a point where demand and supply are equal — that is, where the amount offered at a given price is exactly equal to the amount that will be taken at that price. But the price fixed at any moment by demand and sup- ply may exceed the cost of producing the yarn, even in the mills of those enterprisers who produce at the greatest cost. In such case the output of cotton yarn will increase; the price will come down, until it just covers cost of production to those who are producing at the greatest disadvantage. If the price were to fall still lower, these producers would have to quit the business ; and this would reduce supply and thus of itself tend to force up the price of cotton yarn. But the same price may be high enough to give excellent profits to the more efficient producers; these continue to extend their business, and the increase in supply from this source may be more than an offset for the decrease resulting from the clos- ing of the less efficient mills. Thus the price gravitates steadily downward, resting momentarily at cost of produc- tion to the least efficient producers ; then sinking to the cost 66 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS - level of slightly more efficient producers; finally resting at the level of cost of the most efficient producers of all. Thus it appears that we need no new law of valuation to explain the action of sellers of cotton yarn. They act just as they would if they were selling a commodity ready for con- sumption. Do the buyers of cotton yarn act just as do the buyers of commodities ready for consumption? Not quite. One consumer may get ten times as much satisfaction out of a barrel of apples as another. He may for that reason be will- ing to pay ten times as high a price. But one buyer of cotton yarn probably turns out just the same grade of cloth as an- other, and sells it for the same price. As one cloth manufac- turer thus sells at the same price as another, and buys mate- rial at the same price, why should one be able to bid a higher price for the material than another? It must be because other elements in the cost of production of cloth — fuel, labor, the use of capital — cost him less, or because he has greater skill in utilizing material or in organizing his labor force. We see, then, that there can hardly be such wide differences in the prices which different manufacturers of cloth can afford to pay for cotton yarn as in the prices different con- sumers can afford to pay for apples. Now let us see what would happen if, through a gen- eral increase in the demand for cotton fabrics, the price of cotton cloth should everywhere rise. All the manufactur- ers of cloth would at first enjoy a profit. To increase that profit each manufacturer would try to extend his business somewhat, and this would tend to bring down the price of cloth. But in order to extend the cotton cloth manufacture, more yarn must be had ; and our hypothesis did not include a simultaneous expansion of the spinning industry. The cloth manufacturers would have to bid against each other for the existing supply of yarn; the price of the yam would rise, until cloth again sold at cost. We see, then, that it is not merely because of competition in the sale of finished product3 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS 6/ that such products sell at cost ; it is also because of competi- tion in the purchase of the elements of production. If the price of cloth is for a time much above cost the expansion of the cloth manufacture tends to lower the price of cloth and raise the price of yarn and other elements in cost, until the price of cloth and its cost are again nearly equal. Looking now at the manufacture of yarn, we see that such an increase in the price as we have assumed will give high profits throughout the industry, and consequently will give rise to an attempt on the part of each manufacturer of yarn to extend his output. But this he can do only by in- creasing his consumption of raw cotton. As the business expands, the price of yarn tends downward, and that of raw cotton upward, until no exceptional profits are left to the yarn manufacturers as a class. Such an increase in the price of raw cotton means high returns to the growers of cotton. These, we may assume, had been selling their cotton at a price which gave a fair equivalent for the cost of labor, of the use of agricultural implements, of fertilizers and of the use of the land. The price now exceeds these costs. If this state of affairs con- tinues, more men will desire to grow cotton, either buying cotton lands or renting them. As such lands, of the best quality, are not unlimited, the rental and the price of land will go up. Here again the cost of production rises with the price of the product. Part of the increase in cost of produc- tion may assume the form of increase in the price of fertil- izers ; and this part we could trace still farther if we desired. The part which represents increase in rental of land can be traced no farther, for there is no cost of production of land. In the example given above it has been assumed that labor cost and the cost of the use of capital remain un- changed, in spite of the expansion of the cotton industry. This assumption may or may not be justifiable. An increase in the number of laborers and an increase in the amount of capital invested in buildings and machines, or used in the 68 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS purchase of materials and other suppHes, would necessarily attend any expansion of the industry. To secure the addi- tional labor and capital, the manufacturers of cotton cloth may be compelled to offer slightly higher wages and interest than they formerly paid. But the amount of capital to be had at the prevailing rate is enormous ; and the slight in- crease in demand from the cotton industry would hardly be able to exert a perceptible influence in raising the rate. The same thing would be true of labor. To attract more laborers to the cotton industry, it would be necessary to offer only a slight increase in wages, as it is fair to assume that before the changes in the cotton industry occurred, wages in that industry were roughly equal to those in other textile industries, or even to those in manufacturing industries in general, allowance made for differences in the skill required and in the relative agreeableness of occupation. In such case, labor cost may be regarded as fixed, or more correctly, as rising and falling with the general trend of social pros- perity, not with the expansion or decline of a particular industry. It sometimes happens, however, that a more intimate re- lation exists between labor cost and the fortunes of a single industry. This is the case where for some reason a definite labor force is dependent for employment upon one industry. Here we see a rise in the price of the finished product fol- lowed by a rise in wages. Other elements in cost may also rise, and take a share of the increased price, or they may re- main relatively stationary. Let us imagine that a new branch of production arises — say, the manufacture of wrapping paper from corn-stalks. A single factory is erected, and let us assume that it will be operated in the winter months only. Of course the factory will have to be located in the country, the source of raw mate- rial. And in the country there is a great deal of labor that is hardly employed at all in the winter months. At what rate will our manufacturer be able to hire this labor ? INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS 69 It is clear that the cost of living will have nothing to do with the wages fixed. Country laborers are paid enough in the open months of the year to carry them through the winter. What they earn in the paper factory is a net addi- tion to their annual income. They can work for nothing, and be no poorer than they were before the factory was erected. The work in the factory may be pleasant rather than other- wise. Nevertheless, it is safe to assume that some rate of wages must be paid. Perhaps a wage of fifty cents a day will provide the requisite amount of labor. If so, that is all the manufacturer will pay. Now, if the manufacturer gets his labor at such a low rate, he may make extraordinarily high profits. In this case other enterprisers are likely to go into the business. If the industry assumes extensive proportions, it soon drains off the supply of labor that can be had for fifty cents a day. Further expansion becomes possible only through an in- crease in wages which will tempt into the industry workmen who regard their ease as worth more than fifty cents a day, or who are earning at least that wage in caring for live-stock, etc. But profits may still be high, and new enterprisers may be continually entering the business. To secure laborers at all, they are compelled to offer wages slightly higher than those paid by the enterprisers whose business is already es- tablished. The latter, in order to retain their laborers, are compelled to meet the bids of their new competitors. Thus wages for this kind of work go up, until all the enterprisers are fully supplied with workmen. Any further expansion will be followed by a similar increase in competition among employers of labor, and a rise in the rate of wages will be necessary in order to induce less industrious workers, or workers having some alternative em- ployment, to enter the factories. But each expansion of the industry means an increased product thrown on the market, and, other things equal, a lower price for it. What with the rising of wages and the falling price of paper, it seems clear 70 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS enough that the profits of the enterpriser must be dedining. Possibly the expansion will continue until wages have risen to $2. All will depend upon the amount of paper that will be taken at a given price, and the amount of labor available. From this example it appears that wages cost cannot always be regarded as a fixed element in the enterpriser's calculations. The same competition among enterprisers that forces prices down forces wages up. Of course if the enter- prisers were to combine, agreeing upon a harmonious line of action, they might hold wages down, through limiting the demand for labor, just as they may keep prices of fin- ished products up by limiting the supply placed on the mar- ket. And here it may not be amiss to remark upon a fre- quent defense of combinations and monopoly. "Competition in the sale of goods so reduces prices that it is impossible to pay fair wages to the workman." As a fact, increasing competition — the appearance of new enterprisers — is likely to force wages up while forcing prices down. A monopoly, limiting output and limiting demand for labor, may be able to pay high wages to its employees. But will it do so ? We may now take another example, which will illus- trate some further points in the law^ of wages cost. Let us assume that there is a city which has been devoted almost exclusively to the manufacture of iron and steel goods. A cotton manufacturer, visiting the city — Ironton, let us call it — shrewdly concludes that the iron workers must have a number of sisters and daughters and other female relatives, who are practically wasting their time, and who would be glad to earn a small income by cotton spinning and weaving. Accordingly he erects a mill at Ironton. Very likely he will get all the labor he cares for at twenty-five cents a day, while his competitors, in the established centers of the trade, are paying a dollar a day for the same grade of labor. It is true that other elements in cost may be greater in Ironton than in other centers. It may cost more to bring the raw material to that place, and to ship away the finished INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS Jl product. Fuel may be more expensive; and the wages of the mechanics who erect the mills and set the machinery in working order may be higher. The salaries that must be paid to foremen and overseers may also be higher than in the older centers. But in spite of all this, the cost of producing a given grade of cottons at Ironton, with wages at twenty- five cents a day, may be twenty per cent, lower than the cost of producing the same grade in the older centers, while the selling price may be just the same. Of course this will give the enterpriser at Ironton large profits. Before long other enterprisers will begin to wonder why a cotton mill has been set up at Ironton ; and finding, upon investigation, what ad- vantages that city offers in the way of low costs, they too begin to erect mills there. The effect of the appearance of these new manufacturers at Ironton is to increase the demand for cheap labor. Pos- sibly there are so many women and girls who are ready to work for "pin money" that the new mills can be plentifully supplied with labor at the same price as has been paid by the enterpriser first in the field. But it cannot be a great while before the supply of twenty-five-cent labor falls short of the demand; enterprisers erecting new mills will have to of¥er a little higher wages to entice workers away from the older mills ; and these wull have to raise wages to the rate offered by the newcomers. The competition will continue until wages are so high as to induce a new set of workers to enter the mills. Costs at Ironton may still be abnormally low after wages have risen, say, to fifty cents a day. In that case the cotton industry at Ironton will go on expanding, until at last aggregate costs are as great at Ironton as in the older centers of the trade. This does not mean that wages will be just the same. They may be seventy-five cents in Ironton and $1 in the older centers. If coal had been cheaper, mechanics' services cheaper and more efficient, transportation facilities better, at Iron- ton than in the older centers of the cotton industry, the ej^- 7^ INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS pansion of the industry at Ironton would not have stopped when wages had reached the level prevailing in older centers. With wages at that level total costs would still have been less in Ironton than in the older centers ; and so the industry would have continued to expand, until the rise in wages com- pletely offset the other advantages in favor of production at Ironton. From this example we see that the rate of wages which competition of manufacturers tends to fix cannot be uni- form for the different localities where a given commodity is produced. Where other costs are relatively low, competi- tion will force wages to a relatively high figure, and vice versa. Now let us suppose that, while the cotton industry in Ironton is developing, woolen manufacturers decide to erect mills in that place. They know that the cost of labor in their factories must bear a close relation to cost of labor in the cotton industry. If they could make the work in the woolen mills easier than work in the cotton mills, they might count on getting labor at a trifle less. On the other hand, if work in the woolen mills were less agreeable than work in the cot- ton mills, wages would have to be slightly higher in the former than in the latter. The appearance of the woolen mills would have exactly the same effect upon the wages of the cotton operatives as the appearance of new cotton mills would have. The woolen manufacturers would offer wages sufficiently high to attract workers away from the cotton mills, and the cotton manu- facturers would be forced to raise wages slightly in order to keep their working force intact. Further, this develop- ment in the demand for labor in the textile industries might in the end react upon wages in other industries — even in the iron industry. As soon as wages in the cotton and woolen mills rose above the wages paid certain classes of laborers in the iron works, boys and young men would leave the iron works to learn to operate looms. The resulting INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS 73 scarcity of labor in the iron works would naturally raise wages there. If we wish to formulate, provisionally, a law of wages cost, we may say that, at a given time, wages in any industry must be sufficient to prevent workmen from leaving that in- dustry to seek employment in other industries in the vicinity ; and that if competition exists among different producing cen- ters, all supplying the same markets, wages in an industry in one center will rise or fall until, together with other costs of production, they equal wages plus other costs of production in the other centers where the industry is carried on. To give a numerical example, if in city A one hundred yards of cotton cloth cost $io, of which $8 consists of cost of ma- terials, fuel, interest on capital, etc., and $2, of wages ; and if in city B, which obtains the same price for cloth at the mill, all other costs amount to only $7, wages in B will rise, under competition, until labor cost amounts to $3. But may it not happen that an enterpriser is enabled to keep costs of production low by forcing workers in par- ticularly necessitous circumstances to accept a lower rate than is prevailing in the district ? And can he not undersell enterprisers who pay the prevailing rate, and so force the latter to cut wages? Assuredly there are employers who take advantage of the ignorance or poverty of their em- ployees, and pay lower wages than their competitors pay. It is evident, however, that no large business can long be conducted on such a plan. Other employers will in the end entice away workers thus underpaid. And it is evident that the unfair employer will not sell his goods at a lower rate than his competitors, and so force prices down. It is not through producing at low costs, but through increasing one's output, that one forces prices down. The unfair employer will find it difficult enough to keep his present labor force; he will hardly be able constantly to increase it by offering starvation wages. May not the cost of labor be increased through the de- 74 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS mands of labor organizations? This question can only be touched upon here. If there is no organization of labor, and if active competition among employers exists, wages for labor of a given grade of skill will in the end be as high in one industry as in other industries in the same vicinity, allowance being made for agreeableness or disagreeableness of employment. General wages in one industrial center will in the end be what they are in other industrial centers, allow- ance being made for differences in other costs. Now, a trade union can help wages to rise to these natural levels: if it forces them higher, it is likely to destroy the industry of the places under its control. We may now consider how far it is true that the price of the use of capital, or interest, remains constant in spite of the expansion of an industry. We may imagine that in a certain district the rate of interest is low. An enterpriser engaged in an industry requiring large investment of capital may find that he can produce more profitably there than in a locality where interest rates are high. Of course this can be the case only if other elements in cost of production — wages, fuel, materials — are not so much higher than in other localities as to balance the advantage of low interest rates. Granting, however, that the low interest rates are not thus offset, the enterpriser will for a time enjoy low aggregate costs, and therefore high profits. But soon competitors ap- pear, who offer a slightly higher rate of interest for the capi- tal offered by local capitalists. Enterprisers in other indus- tries likewise seek to take advantage of the low interest rates, until the rise in interest eats up the margin between selling price and cost of production. It must be admitted that this example is more nearly an imaginary one than were the examples employed to illustrate the laws governing wages cost. Why should interest rates be particularly low in one locality ? Is there any reason why a person residing in Boston should loan his capital to Boston business men ? It is no more difficult, practically, to lend it INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS 75 to enterprisers in Pittsburg. For this reason interest rates on capital are pretty well equalized throughout the country. It is easy to find industries migrating to sections where labor is cheap, or where the cost of fuel or of raw material is low. But it is not easy to find an industry migrating to a certain point because interest rates are lower than at other points in the same country. It is less difficult for the capital to migrate than for the industry to do so. Not all capital, however, is embodied in forms which permit it to migrate from one industry to another. A part of the capital of the manufacturer consists in the land upon which his mill is erected. A much larger proportion of the capital of a farmer is invested in land. The capital of a railway company consists partly in rolling stock, which grad- ually wears out and must be replaced; it consists partly in right of way, in grades and tunnels, which have perpetual life, as it were. Capital which consists in goods that must be periodically replaced may at the moment of replacement be diverted to other industries. But capital which is em- bodied in permanent goods cannot thus change from one industry to another. What will determine the amount that an enterpriser will have to pay for the use of land, or of other forms of durable capital? In the first place, it is clear enough that he will have to pay what any other enterpriser will offer. If, for example, one wishes to rent a field upon which to grow sugar beets, he will have to pay as high a rental as other beet growers in the vicinity pay for equally good land. And this rental will have to be as great as wheat growers in the vicinity pay for the same quality of land used for wheat. Beet growers may find, after paying all other costs, that a considerable profit remains in their hands from the sale of their beets. In such case the industry will expand, new enterprisers converting wheat lands to beet culture. The increasing output of beets might conceivably reduce their price; but more probably, since an enormous increase "J^i INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS in the sugar output of a given locality would yet be a very small addition to the world's sugar supply, the price of beets will remain fairly constant. If no difficulty is experienced in obtaining labor and auxiliary capital the expansion of the industry wull continue until all the lands especially well fitted for beet growing are given over to that branch of agriculture. If the beet growers still have a surplus profit, they will compete among themselves for land, each desiring to increase his acreage. Higher rents will be offered, until the extra profits of the enterpriser are absorbed by this increasing element in cost. Of course if the labor supply is limited, relatively to the demand for it in beet culture, the expansion of that form of agriculture will gradually force wages up. Possibly the rise in wages will swallow up the profits of the enterpriser before all the ground that is well adapted to beet culture has been taken. In that case the expansion of the industry will cease without occasioning a perceptible rise in rents. :We may now give our attention to another element in the cost of production of many commodities — ^the price paid for crude materials as they exist in nature before any change has been wrought in them by industry. To illustrate the laws governing the value of these crude materials, we need to go back to an early stage, when they existed in quantities far in excess of any need for them. The cost of bricks under such conditions would contain no element representing clay in the bank or trees on the hillside. It would consist solely in wages of labor employed in cutting and hauling the wood, in digging and mixing the clay and shaping the bricks, and in interest on capital invested in kilns and drying sheds, etc. Bricks might at a given time sell at a price in excess of these costs; but this would cause new brick works to be erected and the price of bricks would fall, or the rate of wages would rise, until bricks were selling at a price merely covering cost. As population increased the demand for wood for brick- making would increase, as would also the demand for wood INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS "J*] for other purposes. In time the proprietor of woodlands would see an end of the supply within easy distances, and would demand a price for wood in the tree. Here, then, would be a new element in the cost of bricks. Further growth of population might make the supplies of suitable clay seem insufficient to meet all demands, present and pros- pective. The owner of clay deposits could therefore demand a royalty for every cubic yard of this material. If the de- mand for bricks continued to increase, the price of wood and of clay would steadily rise. As soon as labor became so abundant that the brick-making industry could readily expand without materially forcing up the rate of wages, a constantly increasing proportion of the selling price of the bricks would be absorbed by the cost of the raw material. In an earlier chapter it was shown that price is continu- ally tending toward cost of production. We now see that in a sense cost of production itself is influenced by the price of finished products, a high price increasing the cost of certain elements in production, if not of all. It appears then as if we had been reasoning in a circle. Cost of production de- termines price; price determines cost of production. If we take a very broad view, we see that the value of anything which serves as a means of further production de- pends in large measure upon the price of all the products into which it enters. The value of labor thus depends largely upon the price of the products which it helps to create. All the other elements that cooperate with labor in production derive their values in a similar way from the finished prod- ucts. The price of all the elements in production, taken to- gether, tends to equal the prices of all products. Thus we may properly say that cost is constantly adjusting itself to price. If, however, we take a narrower view, confining our attention to a single industry, the costs of production may appear to be unvarying. If the price of cotton fabrics is high, competition in the end forces it down, instead of forc- ing wages and interest up. This is because the value of 7^ INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS labor and of the use of capital is derived not from the price of cotton fabrics alone, but from the prices of all commodi- ties into which these factors enter. And the cotton industry is not great enough to cause a perceptible rise in the wages of all labor and in the interest on all capital. So far as this industry alone is concerned, or any other single industry, price adjusts itself to cost. If, however, a certain element in cost is confined to a single industry, we see before our eyes the cost of a commodity adjusting itself to the price of a commodity, just as in the whole field of industry all costs are adjusting themselves to all prices. The classical economists were puzzled by these instances of costs that rise or fall with the price of particular commodities. As they did not reaHze that all costs, viewed broadly, thus rise or fall, they con- cluded that such shifting costs were not costs at all. It has been indicated that if, in one out of several cen- ters producing the same commodity, other elements in cost are relatively low, the cost of labor will be relatively high, and vice versa. In a district where the interest on capital and the cost of fuel are abnormally high, a manufacturing industry may often be carried on successfully in competition with other districts where capital is to be had at a low rate of interest and where fuel is cheap. But wages in the first district will probably have to be low to offset the high cost of the other elements. If any district enjoys the advantages of very cheap coal and low interest rates, wages in a branch of manufacture carried on there will rise to offset these advantages. We see then that the price of one element in production must bear some relation to that of the other elements. The rate of wages in special industries in particular districts is affected in some measure by the rate of interest in the same district. Whether the general rate of wages is similarly affected by the general rate of interest, will be a question for consideration in later chapters, when we shall seek to ascer- tain the laws governing these forms of income. CHAPTER VI The Law of Diminishing Returns In the last chapter we saw that one of the forces limit- ing the expansion of an industry is the tendency of costs to rise to the selling price of the product of the industry. The American cotton spinning industry may be very profitable this year — that is, the margin between the selling price of cotton yarn and the cost of producing it may be wide. But before long an expansion of the industry will take place; increasing demands upon the existing supply of skilled labor, of raw cotton, and of other factors in the production of cotton yarn will force the expenses of the enterprisers engaged in the industry to a higher level. We saw further that not all elements in cost show the same tendency to increase. In cotton spinning, part of the labor force is skilled, part of it unskilled. If the industry were to expand, say, by fifty per cent., a great strain would be put upon the supply of labor specially trained for cotton spinning. No particular strain would be felt by the supply of unskilled labor, for outside of the spinning industry enormous quantities of unskilled labor are to be had. The skilled labor might therefore for a time enjoy a large in- crease in wages, while the wages of unskilled labor would scarcely be affected at all. Similarly, such an expansion of the industry would represent a great strain upon the supply of raw cotton, which for a year could not be increased at all. Quite possi- bly the price of raw cotton would be doubled. The same expansion of the cotton spinning industry would result in an increased demand for coal for power. But the use of coal is so universal, and the volume of its consumption so vast, that the increased demand from the cotton industry 80 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS would be a negligible factor in influencing its price. Coal would probably not rise perceptibly. For a somewhat different reason, the output of a single enterpriser can often be increased only at increasing cost. It is true that one enterpriser out of a multitude cannot force up the wages of labor against himself, as a whole in- dustry can do. Nor can he exert any perceptible influence upon the price of raw material and other supplies. But there are usually certain factors entering into his produc- tion that, so far as he is concerned, are either limited abso- lutely, or can be increased only at a disproportionately heavy outlay. In any agricultural section you may find an enterprising farmer forced to limit his operations to a single hundred acres. He could hire as many men as he pleased at $25 a month, the price he pays his one "hired hand." He could buy additional teams and additional machinery at no advance over the price of those he already has. Why should he not buy or rent additional land, and carry on a large scale business? Because all the adjoining lands are occupied by men who prefer to till them with their own labor and who would consequently demand a very high rental, if they consented to give up their land at all. Our farmer might be compelled to go a distance of three or four miles to get additional land at reasonable rates. Of course land could not be advantageously managed from such a dis- tance. Hence he is forced to content himself with his own one hundred acres. In almost any town you may find a bright and capable young grocer, conducting the pettiest corner grocery busi- ness. The possibilities of trade may be numerous; a store ten times as large might easily be supported by the potential custom. Why then do we find a little store? The young merchant might easily rent larger premises, without more than a proportionate increase in rent. He might hire as many clerks and delivery boys as he wished, without pay- ing a rate of wages in excess of the rate he pays to the INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS 8l one or two already in his employ. What he especially lacks is capital. Perhaps he has $5,000 of his own. The cost which the use of this capital represents is merely the interest he could get in a savings bank — say, four per cent. With $5,000 capital of his own, he may be able to borrow another $5,000 at six per cent. For an additional $5,000 he would probably have to pay ten per cent., as the security he has to offer is not so good. It is unlikely that he can borrow more capital, no matter how high a rate of interest he may be will- ing to pay. The maximum business he can conduct, then, is one for which a capital of $15,000 will suffice. A small stream, flowing between high, rocky banks, may offer an excellent opportunity for the establishment of a factory, to be operated by water-power. Let us suppose that a manufacturer, acquainted with the advantages of the location, decides to erect a mill. He may be able to com- mand practically unlimited capital. Whether his mill will require one hundred hands or one thousand will make no difference in the rate of wages he will have to pay. Raw material can be obtained at least as cheaply in large lots as in small. Plainly, what will determine the size of the factory will be the power to be obtained from the stream. A ten- foot dam will give a certain power; a twenty-foot dam a much greater one, and every additional foot in height of dam means additional power. But there is an absolute limit to the height to which the dam may reach, without forcing the stream above its banks and ruining a large amount of property on the lower levels adjacent to it. There may also be limits of expense;, after the dam has reached a height of twenty feet, further addition to its height may imply such a great increase in its length and in the character of the materials required to stand the increased strain that the ad- ditional power is not worth its cost. It will not be necessary to multiply instances further. If the student will examine the various businesses with which he is acquainted he will observe that in a large pro- 82 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS portion of them it is difficult, if not impossible, to duplicate all the elements in production without incurring dispropor- tionate expense. Businesses do increase in spite of this ; but the increase does not take place in a symmetrical fashion. The labor and movable capital may be increased while the land area is left unchanged ; the number of laborers may be increased while the capital remains fixed in amount. Some of the factors in production respond readily to the strain of an expanding business ; others show great resistance to such strain, but yield slightly ; others yield not at all. Let us return now to the case of the farmer, confined to his one hundred acres of tillable land. By his own labor and with a single team and the appropriate machinery he may till the whole tract. Fifty acres, we may imagine, are put into wheat, fifty acres into corn. In the time for sowing wheat, a few good days may be followed by a week of rainy weather. Half of the wheat field may be sowed in time to get the benefit of the wet weather ; the other half of the field may have to be left until the ground is dry, and so this part of the crop will lose the advantage of a fair start. Similarly part of the corn planting may be belated, with resultant danger to the crop from early frosts. There may not be enough dry days in the late spring to enable the farmer to keep his cornfield free from weeds. In harvest time, the chances of loss from delays in cutting and stacking the wheat are still greater. Of course these adverse chances may not be realized. The weather may be dry just when it should be; the rains may come just when they are wanted. But experience proves that the weather is not thus happily regulated. One year with another, our farmer will be for- tunate if he gets twelve bushels of wheat and forty bushels of corn per acre. Instead of tilling the whole tract with his own labor, the farmer may hire a man to help him. He buys an addi- tional team, plow, harrow, cultivator, etc., practically dupli- cating his stock of machinery as well as his supply of labor. INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS 83 The land can now be much more carefully tilled; it will almost surely yield a greater aggregate return. Will the re- turn be doubled? It would be unreasonable to expect this. More probably, the wheat yield will increase to fifteen bushels ; the corn yield, to fifty bushels. If wheat is worth seventy-five cents a bushel and corn twenty-five, what the farmer will gain from the additional labor and capital will be $112.50 worth of wheat and $125 worth of corn — $237.50 in all. Does it pay to employ the additional laborer? If he is employed for only six months of the year, at $25 per month, we must set $150 against the $237.50 for wages. If the ad- ditional capital amounts to $500, borrowed at the rate of five per cent., and if the wear and tear of capital goods — horses and machines — be placed at $50, we must add another $75 to the cost. Thus, in order to obtain $237.50 worth of wheat and corn, our farmer must incur $225 of cost. His net gain, then, is $12.50. Now let us imagine that he employs a second hired laborer, and invests an additional $500 in a team and ma- chinery. How much will be added to the crop? It is un- likely that the addition will be as great as that resulting from the employment of the first hired workman. We will assume that the wheat crop per acre is increased to seven- teen bushels, the corn crop to fifty-five. On the same price basis as we assumed before, the value of the addition to the crop will be $137.50, while the additional cost of tillage will be $225. We see that it does not pay to put three men upon the one hundred acre farm. A practical farmer might experiment in this way with a second hired workman; having discovered how unsatis- factory the result, he would in the future content himself with one hand. To satisfy our own curiosity, however, let us see what would happen if a third hand were employed. Perhaps the crop of wheat would increase to eighteen bushels, and the crop of corn to fifty-eight, an increase of value of $75. A fourth hand might increase the crop of wheat to 84 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS eighteen and one-half bushels; that of corn to fifty-nine. There is no reason why every additional workman should not make some small addition to the crop, until the wheat crop had become fifty bushels and the corn crop one hundred and fifty. But it is idle to spend time in carrying out in de- tail a study of the results of a workman's labor, when these results are so much less than cost that no enterpriser would undertake to secure them. An important principle, involved in this example, may now be stated. From a given area of ground, an amount of produce can be obtained increasing with every increase in the labor and auxiliary capital employed in tillage, but in- creasing less than proportionally with the increase in labor and auxiliary capital. This principle is called the law of di- minishing returns in agriculture. If the rate of wages had been $io a month, all the other factors in our problem remaining unchanged, the gain to the farmer from the first workman hired would have been $102.50, instead of $12.50; the second workman, in- stead of representing a loss, would have given a net gain of $2.50. To employ a third hand, adding $75 to the total yield, but entailing an expense of $60 for wages and $75 for interest and replacement of capital, would not have paid. It is to be observed that the rate at which the produc- tiveness of additional increments of labor and auxiliary capital declines varies for different lands and for different crops. The example which has been employed assumed a light, well-drained soil, such as is found in large tracts of the upper Mississippi Valley. If the hundred acre farm had consisted instead of heavy, boggy land, one man could hardly have kept it all under cultivation. If he had tried to do so, very likely his crop would have averaged less than ten bushels of wheat and thirty of corn. A hired workman, with auxiliary capital as in the earlier example, might have raised the product to thirteen bushels of wheat and forty of INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS 8$ corn; a second hired workman might have increased the crop to sixteen and one-half bushels of wheat and forty-nine bushels of corn; a third, to eighteen bushels of wheat and fifty-seven of corn; a fourth, to nineteen bushels of wheat and sixty-four of corn. With wages at $25, it would still not have paid to put the second workman upon the land. But with wages at $10 a fourth workman could have been profitably employed, as the additional product arising from his employment would have been worth $143.75, while his wages, together with interest and replacement of wear and tear of capital goods, would have amounted to only $135. Possibly, under the circumstances, a fifth hired man might be employed upon the land. If the farmer is engaged in raising potatoes instead of corn and wheat, one hundred acres will be much more than he can handle alone. If he cultivates as large a part of the area as he can, say twenty-five acres, he may produce one thousand bushels. A hired workman could be set at work on another twenty-five acres, and add one thousand bushels to the product. Diminishing returns will not appear at all, for the field as a whole, until four are at work there. A fifth would probably add less than one thousand bushels, but might add nine hundred and fifty. Even a tenth might add five hundred bushels. Let the price be fifty cents a bushel : the tenth workman adds $250 to the product ; and if it costs $225 to pay his wages and the other expenses attend- ing his employment, it is well worth while to employ a tenth workman. With wages at $10, very likely a twenty-fifth workman would add more to the total product than the ex- pense which he would occasion. If wages remain stationary through a period of time, but the prices of agricultural produce rise, the number of laborers that may profitably be employed upon a given area of land will of course increase. If in our first example wheat had sold at $1.50 a bushel and corn at fifty cents, the increase in product arising from the employment of the first 86 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS hand would have had a value of $475; from the second, $275; from the third, $150. Under the circumstances, the farmer would find it profitable to employ two laborers in- stead of one. The increase in number of laborers that might profitably be employed would be still more striking in the case of the farm with heavy soil, given a doubling of the price of the produce. If we assume high prices as well as low wages, the land of both grades will be cultivated with still greater expenditure of labor. And this is in some measure an explanation of the fact that where labor is cheap and the prices of agricultural products high, as in some of the countries of Europe, land is cultivated far more intensively than in places where labor is dear and the prices of produce low, as in the western part of the United States. The principle of diminishing returns, as it operates in agriculture, was first formulated by economists more than a hundred years ago, although practical men have of course taken account of it in their business conduct ever since agriculture became man's chief source of food. The applicability of the principle to land devoted to trading and manufacturing purposes was for a long time ignored by economists. This may be explained by the fact that formerly urban land was so cheap that the small amount re- quired for the erection of a shop or a factory represented an almost negligible element in the total costs of carrying on a business of this nature. The enterpriser rarely found himself forced to adjust his business with a view to obtain- ing the greatest possible use out of a definite amount of land. If his capital sufficed for so large a business, he purchased or leased a city block on which to erect his build- ings ; if his capital was small, he limited his use of land to a few lots. To-day conditions have changed in consequence of the extraordinary growth of the cities. The merchant who desires to carry on a business in the heart of the busi- ness district of a great city often finds himself restricted INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS ^7 to a given number of front feet. The adjacent lots are taken tip by establishments which show no disposition to remove. It is then a question how to conduct a maximum paying business upon a fixed ground space. One way of overcoming the limitation of ground space consists in erecting a very lofty building. Instead of con- tenting himself with a building of six stories, the enterpriser may push the height to fifteen or more. Perhaps it costs $600,000 to erect a six-story building. An additional $ioo,- 000 may possibly give another story ; but more probably the seventh story will in effect cost more than this. To raise the building materials to this height is more expensive than to raise materials to a lower story. Moreover, a seven-story building is not merely a six-story one with a floor super- added. In planning the taller building, it is necessary to allow for greater strength of wall in the lower stories, in view of the additional weight to be borne by them. Greater care must be exercised to reduce risk from fire. In addi- tion to the increased cost of construction, there will be greater costs in connection with the permanent use of the seventh floor than in connection with the use of lower floors. More labor will be spent in carrying up the goods to be ex- posed for sale, and in carrying down the articles sold. More numerous and more powerful elevators will be required for the higher building. We may therefore place the initial cost of the additional floor at $120,000. The net profit from the use of this floor, allowance being made for the in- creased costs, may, however, represent a fair return on $200,000. The erection of the higher building is therefore profitable. An eighth floor would, in effect, cost still more than the seventh — $140,000, let us say. The cost of operation would also be increased. As there is ordinarily no reason why the business accommodated by this floor should be in any way greater than that accommodated by the seventh, the profit may be assumed to be less — say, a fair return on 88 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS $180,000. A ninth floor may yield a fair return on $160,000 and cost about the same sum. Here then is the limit to up- ward extension of the business. If for any reason the cost of construction should be re- duced, as through the substitution of steel frame for solid masonry, the height to which a building might economically be raised would naturally be increased. Let us suppose that the ninth floor, instead of costing $160,000, represents a cost of only $140,000. In this case a tenth floor, or even an eleventh, may be worth while. If the cost of construction remains unchanged but the rate of interest on capital invested in buildings falls, a tenth or eleventh story would perhaps be a good investment. As has been indicated, a floor "pays" when the profits from its use are a fair return on the capital represented by the cost of the floor. If this fair return is figured at ten per cent., the ninth floor, costing $160,000, must produce profits amounting to $16,000. If the rate of interest is reckoned at five per cent., the same $16,000 is a fair return on $320,000 — much more than the cost of the floor. Accord- ingly, with the lower rate of interest on building capital, there would be no reason for stopping with the ninth floor. A tenth floor may cost $180,000 and yield a profit of $12,000. This sum equals a five per cent, return on $240,000. Another story may cost $200,000 and yield a return of $10,000. As $10,000 is a five per cent, return on $200,000, this story just pays. Given a building already completed, no extension of business through increase in floor space is usually prac- ticable. But the business is not therefore altogether pre- vented from expanding. Wide aisles and relatively few counters may give way to narrow aisles and numerous counters. A small number of salesmen may be replaced by a large number. It is not necessary to follow out in detail the effect of thus increasing expenses for salaries and for capital invested in counters and in stock. The first $100,000 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS 89 Spent in thus expanding the business may pay very well; a second $100,000 may also pay; but it will hardly yield pro- portionate returns; after a time the floor space is so well utilized that an additional $100,000 expended in this way will not bring a fair return. Just as in agriculture we found that the rate at which returns diminish varies for different crops, so in mercantile establishments with limited floor space the rate at which returns diminish varies for different lines of trade. Let us compare, in this respect, a tinware and a jewelry business. If the merchant dealing in tinware should double his stock, it is probable that he would crowd his store too much for convenience; but the increased business might make this profitable. A point would soon be reached, however, where further increase in stock would not pay. A jeweler, on the other hand, might double his stock, increase it three-fold, four-fold — perhaps ten-fold — without serious crowding of space. We may now go over into other fields, to find other manifestations of the law of diminishing returns. In a cer- tain city a street railway company, let us assume, has ex- tended its lines of track through all the streets which promise any considerable traflic. The trackage is then a fixed ele- ment in the company's business, analogous with the land of the farmer or the floor space of the merchant. The variable elements are labor, fuel for power, and auxiliary capital in the shape of cars. We may assume — although not strictly in accord with the facts — that the cost of running a car is just the same whether one hundred cars are operated or one thousand. The cost of running one car we will place arbi- trarily at $2 a trip.' With one hundred cars in the entire system, running at intervals of twenty minutes, the company may carry an average of one hundred passengers per car per trip, thus earning $5 at a cost of $2. It is easy to see that the number of passengers carried would be increased if the service were go INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS more frequent. Persons who have only a short distance to go will form the habit of walking, if the alternative usually means waiting fifteen or twenty minutes for an overcrowded car. Quite possibly the company would get twice as many fares with two hundred cars, running at intervals of ten minutes. The second hundred cars therefore would pay a handsome profit above the cost of operating them. Imagine now that the company places a third hundred cars upon its lines, still further reducing the intervals be- tween cars. In large measure these cars will simply carry passengers who would have been carried by the other cars ; and this is of course no gain to the company. The greater efficiency of the system, and the greater comfort of riding in cars that are never overcrowded, will develop some increase in traffic. Possibly this increase will amount to fifty passen- gers for each of the new cars. This would mean, according to our assumed cost per trip, a gain of $2.50 at a cost of $2. An additional hundred cars may increase the number of pas- sengers carried by an average of twenty-five for each addi- tional car. This would represent $1.25 receipts for every $2 outlay, and would therefore be uneconomical. Of course if costs of operation should diminish or if the number of potential passengers should increase, the service might profitably be improved still further. The manufacturer, of one of our earlier examples, who erects a mill to utilize the power obtained by damming a stream, is limited in his operations by the power repre- sented by the head of water. This is the fundamental limit- ing element in his calculations. But it is not to be supposed that the power which he will actually obtain is a definite quantity. Human ingenuity has devised no means whereby all the power actually resident in any natural source may be transmuted into a form which lends itself to use. All our devices for securing and transmitting power are imperfect, the best of them being only less wasteful of energy than the worst. Our manufacturer may install a mechanism which INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS QI Costs little but permits a large part of the power to go to waste. Or he may install a more complicated and costly set of devices, which will come far nearer turning to account the whole power represented by the fall. We may then think of the manufacturer as weighing the advantages of different kinds of power plant. The expenditure of $i,ooo will permit the utilization of, perhaps, one-half of the power. A second $i,ooo may make it possible to utilize two-thirds of the power. With a plant costing $3,000 perhaps three- fourths of the total power will be utilized. A $4,000 plant may utilize four-fifths of the power, and so on. At what point will it be more profitable to let power go to waste than to incur additional expense to save it ? One-half of the power may have a value of $300 per year. Interest and depreciation on the $1,000 necessary to obtain this power may amount to $150. The value of the power which would be obtained through the $2,000 plant, on the basis we have assumed, would be $400 ; and the cost, figuring interest and depreciation as before, would be $300. The simple plant therefore would yield a net value of $150 above cost; while the more complicated plant would yield only $100. It would accordingly pay best to install the $1,000 plant. If the value of the power should double, however, the cost of the several kinds of power installations remaining unchanged, the $1,000 plant would yield a value of $600 at a cost of $150, leaving a net gain of $450; while the $2,000 plant would give a power worth $800 at a cost of $300, leaving a net gain of $500. The $3,000 plant would yield a power worth $900, but at a cost of $450. The net gain is evidently diminished through the installation of the $3,000 plant. The $2,000 plant is, under the circumstances, the most economi- cal available. It is easy to calculate that were the value of the power again doubled, the $3,000 plant would yield the highest surplus above cost, and so would be the most ad- vantageous economically. Under present conditions it is an excellent steam engine 92 INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS which transforms into mechanical power one-sixth of the energy of the coal which it consumes. A simple and inex- pensive type of engine does not do nearly so well as this. At a given place and time, will it be more economical to employ an engine of the very highest type, and which naturally is very costly, or an inexpensive engine of a simple type ? The former may transform into power fifteen per cent, of the energy latent in the coal ; the latter, only five per cent. If the additional power obtained through the better engine does not equal the excess of interest and depreciation charge on the more costly engine, the simpler engine is the more economi- cal in spite of its wastefulness, from the mechanical point of view. The element in production which operates to limit the expansion of a given business may be capital in its general form, not any particular form of capital, as a given amount of land, a waterfall, a railway track. It is a fortunate busi- ness man who finds his capital limited only by the possi- bilities of profitable employment which he commands. In practical life a man can secure for use in his business, be- sides his own capital, only the additional capital for which he can give security. And this is usually limited to some pro- portion of the value of his own property. Assuming that a manufacturer possesses a capital of $50,000, and can borrow $50,000 more, the sum $100,000 limits his operations as narrowly as any other fixed element in his production could do. He has, of course, many choices as to the exact disposition of the capital. If he is engaged in cotton manufacture, he may use first-class machinery, or he may employ a poor grade of machines — perhaps machines that have been discarded in other sections, as was for a long time a common practice in the South. Perhaps he will decide upon investing $50,000 of his capital in looms, the remainder being invested partly in the building and partly in materials, etc. With twenty-five laborers and high-grade looms, the output per laborer will be high ; with INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS 93 fifty laborers and lower grade looms, the output per laborer will probably be less, although the total output of the mill will be increased. A third force of twenty-five laborers with a still cheaper grade of looms will add something to the total output, but the output per man will be still further di- minished. Perhaps the output per man, when twenty-five are employed, will be $2,000, while wages, cost of material, wear and tear, etc., amount to $1,600 per man, leaving a total net return of $10,000. With cheaper looms and fifty men, the output per man may be $1,900, the cost remaining $1,600. This would leave a net return of $15,000, and hence would be advantageous. Seventy-five men, with the capital put into appropriate form, might produce $1,800 per man at the cost of $1,600 as before; and this also would represent a return of $15,000. One hundred men, with a return per man of $1,700, would yield only $10,000 net. Ac- cordingly the most advantageous form in which to put the capital devoted to looms must be such as to employ between fifty and seventy-five men. If wages were less, a still cheaper loom would be the most advantageous. If in the examples given, labor and other costs had been $1,000 in- stead of $1,600, the net return from the mill equipped with the most expensive machinery would have been $25,000 ; the return from the mill with the next lower grade, $45,000; the next lower grade, $60,000; the next lower, $70,000. If we assume that with one hundred and twenty-five men the product per man would sink to $1,600, such an arrangement of capital as would employ one hundred and twenty-five men would yield $75,000 ne