HBziGi C82 Hollinger Corp. pH8.5 GROWTH AND DENSITY OF POPULATION OF GREAT CITIES OF OVER ONE MILLION INHABITANTS. At the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, held at Springfield, Mass., in 1895, the author presented a paper to Sec- tion *T," with a similar title. The present paper gives the necessary summary of the former paper, and brings the curves and data down generally to the census of 1900, also corrects any errors in the former paper. In 1886 and 18B7, Mr. Rudolph Hering, civil engineer, and at that time chairman of a commission for solving the problem of water supply and drainage of the city of Chicago, compiled some statistics and made a dia- gram showing the curve of growth of population of several cities in the United States. About the year 1890, for the purpose of presenting in a professional report on a rapid transit question in Chicago a comparison between the several cities shown on Mr. Hering' s dia- gram, the writer extended the diagram to a more recent date. During 1894 he obtained, by an extended cor- respondence, the necessary information, and plotted on a new diagram the curves of growth of population of several cities of the world numbering over 1,000,000 in- habitants at the present time. These curves were ex- tended forward, as will be seen by an examination of the diagram. Many interesting and instructive features were presented by this comparison, and the value of the results thus presented graphically were at once ap- preciated by an examination of the diagram. The density of the population of each city, so far as it could be ascertained, was also shown graphically by squares of various sizes. The information was obtained from official sources through the author's correspondents, all of whom kindly interested themselves to comply with his requests for data, and to whom he is largely indebted for the relia- ble character of the figures. As each city has its pecuHarities in history, growth, density and many other features, it is necessary to take up each separately in order to fully understand and appreciate the curves on the diagram. Before, however, proceeding to the cities separately, there should be given the data which form the basis for the extension of the curves for the last decade. These have all been obtained from official sources and are believed to be correct. If the diagram is compared with that of 1895, pub- lished in Vol. XLIV, page 359 et seq., it will be seen that some of the curves for periods previous to 1890 have been slightly changed. This was done to make them conform to the official figures received subsequent to the publication of the former paper. An attempt has been made to give in each case the metropolitan population, regardless of suburban city lines or even State lines, as in the case of New York, where those populations of New Jersey, which are really a part of the metropolitan population of Greater New York, are included. In the case of Berlin, a personal visit to that city last summer convinced the writer that his former basis of population was misleading, and that there should be a "Greater Berlin" to include the twelve separate cities or districts, which, while an integral part of the metro- politan population, have separate municipal govern- ments. There are twelve of those municipalities which are not included in the population of Berlin, but are included in Greater Berlin. The admirable street-car system has made the population practically a unit. The data for the diagram for plotting the curves of the last decade are as per the following table, to which has been appended, as a matter of interest, the popula- tions of Germany and the United States, by which it will be seen that the former is growing at a rate of about 16 per cent, per decade and the latter 20 per cent. DATA FOR DIAGRAM. London 1900 4,589,129 Greater London 1900 6,652,145 Paris (Greater) 1896 3,308,007 1901 3,599,991 St. Petersburg ; 1890 954,400 1897 1,132,677 Berlin 1893 1,640 1895 1,678 1898 1,801 1900 1,884 Greater Berlin 1880 1,245 1890 1,848 1895 2,112 1900 2,512 Vienna 1894 1,480 1899 1,639 Philadelphia ....1890 1,105 1900 1,369 New York (Manhattan : Borough) 1890 lv441 1900 .l;850 Greater New York 1890 2,799 1900 3,'833 Greater Chicago 1890 ' 1,191 1900 1^838 GERMANY < 1880 45,234 1890 49,428 1895 52,279 1900 56,345 UNITED STATES 1880 50,155 1890 62,622 1900 76,303 994 912 261 157 279 018 366 523 572 811 277 632 216 093 242 999 922 735 061 470 901 014 783 250 387 LONDON. For the information of those who are not familiar with the peculiar geographical conditions of the popula- tion, the following data need to be given in order to have a full understanding of the subject : Area in London within Various Bounparies. . statute acres. Within the registrar-general's tables of mor- tality 74,672 Within the limits of the county of London 75,442 London school-board .district ..:. 75,442 City of London, within the municipal and par- liamentary limits 671 Central criminal court district .-..; 269,140 Metropolitan parliamentary boroughs (exclu- sive of the city of London) 74,771 Same (including the city of London) 85,442 Metropolitan police district (not inckiding citj^ of London) 442,750 Metropolitan and city police districts 443,421 6 The metropolitan police district extends over an area, with a radius of fifteen miles from Charing Cross, 688.31 square miles, exclusive of the "city of London." The population used in the curve of growth is that included in the registrar-general's area, or "Registration London," which embraces what is called "Water Lon- don," as it is the 620 square miles of area supplied by the eight metropolitan water cempanies. It is almost impossible in the case of London, as well as that of other cities, to define the area of the metropolitan population, that is, the population of the city itself and of the suburban districts which contain the population doing business in the city. The limits of London could be extended far beyond those of the reg- istrar-general, and with each extension a much different population would be found to exist. To compare, per- haps, more properly with the other cities and cover the metropolitan area, it should be stated that the popu- lation supplied by the London water companies in 1892 was estimated to be 5,490,780, and this population was plotted on the author's diagram of 1895. In 1891 the population of "Greater London" (London and the "outer ring") was 5,633,806. Registration London is (1900) 4,589,129 Greater London " " 6,652,145 As to the density of population, that of the White Chapel district is taken as a maximum, being, on the 357 acres included, at the rate of 132,000 per square mile in 1891. The average in the whole of London is 37,000. per square mile. In the way of further explanations it whould be stated that "Greater London" is the area included within the metropolitan and city police districts, and includes all parishes wholly situate within a circle of fifteen miles' radius from Charing Cross, and all parishes of which any part is included within a circle of twelve miles' radius from the- same center. Its total area is 701 square miles, and its population in 1891 was 5,633,332. (See "London Water Supply," a paper presented to the So- ciety of Arts, April 19, 1899, by Walter Hunter, Esq., Member Inst. C. E.) The present ratio of increase per decade is as follows : Greater London 20 per cent. London 8.6 per cent. GREATER NEW YORK. The curve of growth of this great city of the United States is interesting, first, by its comparison with its neighbor, Philadelphia. The curves show that they kept pace with each other very closely from the year 1700 to 1830, when population in New York began to grow with rapid strides and has continued to do so up to the present time, the ratio of increase being greater than that of any other large city in the world except Chicago. The density of the tenth ward, which is on the east side of the city, between the Brooklyn Bridge and Grand Street, is greatest of any in the world, with the exception perhaps of a certain district in the city of Prague, and it may be said advisedly that Sanitary District A of the eleventh ward has the greatest density of any corre- sponding area of the world, and twice that of Prague in 1893. It comprises about 320 acres, the density in 1890 ranged from 600 to 1,000 inhabitants per acre, or an average of about 512,000 per square mile, the greatest density being 640,000 per square mile. The total popu- lation in 1900 was 3,833,999. The present ratio of increase per decade is 37 per cent. PARIS. In 1860 the area of Paris was considerably extended by taking in the suburban communes, which increased the population at that time nearly half a million. The density of the population is shown, first, by taking out the squares, or greens and woods, making the average in 1890 on this basis 121,300 per square mile and the area 22.4 square miles. The average of the entire city, including the squares, etc., was 79,500 per square mile, covering thirty-one square miles. The curve of growth of Paris brings out several interesting and important historical points. For instance, the cit^^, as is well known, suffered greatly during the latter part of the reign of Louis XVI. and during the Reign of Terror, from 1774 to 1799, during which period the population actually decreased. On the other hand, under the reign of Louis XIV. — 1643 to 1715, and that of Louis XV., 1715 to 1754— it greatly prospered, and the growth in the latter period is shown on the curve as having a regular increase. From 1852 to 1870 the Emperor Louis Napoleon did much for Paris, and its growth was very rapid and comparatively uniform. The effect upon the city by the Franco-Prus- sian war and the Communes is shown plainly on the 10 curve of growth. The population of Greater Paris in 1901 was 3,599,991, New York having outstripped it. The present ratio of increase per decade is 18 per cent. CHICAGO. This city, on account of its large area in comparison with the population, had, in 1894, an average of only 8,430 inhabitants to the square mile, its area being 186 square miles. In arriving at the population for 1894, it was necessary to use considerable judgment in de- ciding which census should be employed. There had been estimates made of over 2,000,000, but to be con- servative the school census of 1894 was used, making the population, including the whole of Cook County, 1,692,727. In ascertaining the ratio of increase, different results are obtained by using different methods of esti- mating the population, whether by the United States census or by that of the city. The increase from 1880 to 1890 by the United States census was 118 per cent. Comparing the United States census of 1890 with the school census of 1890 the ratio of increase per decade was 106 per cent. If, again, we compare the school census of 1884 with the school census of 1894 we have an increase of 150 per cent, per decade. The U. S. census of 1900 revealed the fact that all the approximate figures made in 1894 from various censuses were entirely too large. The population in 1900 was 1,838,735, and by the writer's figures 1,692,727, in 1894, both embracing the whole of Cook County, which is assumed to be the metropolitan popiilation. The ratio of increase per decade of 106.5 per cent, was excessive and led to an erroneous prediction of popula- tion in the future. The actual rate of growth per decade based on the U. S. census of 1890 and that of 1900 is only 54 per cent. However, there were important financial condi- tions affecting the industrial and social status of the city, which led to a decrease in the rate of increase be- tween 1895 and 1900. The financial crash of 1893, when the Columbia Bank and other financial institutions and companies and private individuals went to the wall, had much to do in arresting the growth of the city. The results of this local as well as national and interna- tional financial depression did not make itself felt in the population until about 1897 and 1898. Another cause had much to do with the decreased rate of growth, and that was the industrial reaction 11 after the World's Fair in 1893. In that year, and for two years previous, while the extensive Exposition prepa- rations were going on, there was an extraordinary influx of population which was compelled to seek other parts of the country at the close of the great fair. The population in 1900 by the U. S. census was 1,838,735. The rate of growth based on the census of 1890 and 1900 is 54 per cent. BpRLIN. The census of this city is taken every year and has been so taken since the year 1720. Consequently, the curve of growth is an entirely different one from that of almost any other city, as the points in drawing the curve are much nearer together on the diagram. As in the city of Paris diagram, so in that of Berlin, the effects of political and military disturbance in the kingdom are plainly seen. The seven years' war from 1756 to 1763 caused a decrease in the population. From 1800 to 1810, an entire decade, there is again a steady decrease, and it was during this period that the battles of Hohen- linden, Jena, Auerstadt, Eylau and Friedland were fought with the French. By the peace of Tilsit at the end of this period, Prussia lost one-half of her possessions and kept the other half under very hard conditions. In 1871 the King of Prussia was proclaimed Emperor of Germany, and Berlin became the seat of the empire. From that time the growth has been very rapid, the ratio of increase from 1883 to 1893, the period of maximum increase, being 37 per cent. In density Berlin stands next to Paris, the maximum density in 1893 being 92,600 per square mile and the average density 67,612, with an area of 24.3 square miles. Supplementing the explanations already given in regard to Berlin, the population in 1890 of Berlin proper was 1,884,157, and of Greater Berlin, including the twelve districts above mentioned, 2,512,525. And the present rate of increase is respectively 12 per cent, and 19 per cent. The difference — Berlin and Greater Berlin — is not as great as that between London and Greater London, but still both show the effect of urban and interurban rapid transit by underground, overground and surface lines. It is safe to predict that the further extensions of those lines and the quickening of the speed will make n the growth of the Greater City in both cases much more rapid in the future than at present. The author is of the opinion that the improvements and extensions con- templated in London by American railway projectors and capitalists will effect a great change in the methods of growth of population. ■ VIENNA. The accessible records of population of this city are very incomplete and the curve of population is made from comparatively few dates. The authorities diifer considerably as to the population. The fact that the garrison of the city is constantly changing vitiates the the census records. It is impracticable to secure census returns later than 1899. The population was then 1,617,160, to which should be added a permanent garrison of 22,651 soldiers, making a total of 1,639,811. The population in 1894 on the same basis was 1,480,572. The rate of increase is 11 per cent. PHILADELPHIA. There is nothing particularly striking in regard to the curve of this citj^ It shows a gradual growth and very regular. The density of population is verA^ nearly like that of Chicago, being 8,091 per square mile on an area of 129 square miles. The population, which in- cludes Camden, N. J., which is really a part of the metro- politan population of Philadelphia, is 1,369,632. The rate of increase is 23 per cent. ST. PETERSBURG. The eifect of the founder, Peter the Great, upon the inception of this city and its growth during two decades is plainly seen at the origin of the curve. In fact, it is generally known that, when it was founded in 1703, compulsory means were employed b3^ him to increase the population to 100,000. Under Elizabeth, from 1741 to 1762, it reached 150,000, and under Catherine II., 1762 to 1796, it reached nearly 300,000. One disturbing feature exists in the census estimates, in that the city has a much larger population in the winter than in the summer, as is well known. The curve of growth includes this ■ winter- population and ' also the immediate suburbs, the object being to arrive at the metropolitan population. 13 In reference to the density of population, the most thickly settled ward has 50,000 inhabitants, or at the rate of 113,636 per square mile, and the most thicklj^ settled district in that ward had a population of 227,276 per square mile in 1894. The average for the whole city on an area of 350 square miles was at the rate of 28,260 per square mile. The population in 1897, the latest year available, was 1,132,677. In 1890 it was 954,400. The rate of increase is 15^^ per cent, per decade. Recapitulating the statement in regard to ratio of increase at present in the several cities above noted, the following summary is given : Present ratio of increase, London 8.6 Greater London 20.0 Greater New York.... 37.0 Manhattan Borough 29.0 " " Paris (Greater) ....18.0 Chicago ...: 54.0 Berlin 12.0 " " Greater Berlin 19.0 Philadelphia .23.0 " " St. Petersburg 15.5 " " Vienna 11.0 Although the diagram exhibits more effectively the den.sity of population, the following figures will show the basis on which the graphical squares are drawn : NEW YORK, maximum density, 630,740 per sciuare mile ^ on 3.6 acres. Average maximum density, 480,000 per square mile on 320 acres. Average density New York City proper, 40,000 per square mile on 37 square miles. LONDON, maximum density, 132,000 per scjuare mile on 357 acres. Average density (Registration London) 37,000 per square mile on 117 square miles. PARIS, average density, 79,300 per square mile on 31 square miles. ST. PETERSBURG, maximum density, 227,276 per square mile. Maximum density ward, 113,636 per square mile.: Average density, 28,260 per square mile on 35 square miles. 14 BERLIN, maximtim density, 92,600 per square mile. Average density, 67,612 per square mile; area 23.4 square miles. PHILADELPHIA, average density, 8,091 per square mile; area 129 square miles. CHICAGO, average density, 8,430 per square mile; area 186 square miles. As the number of houses and the number of inhabi- tants per house have much to do with the density of population, the following items are of considerable in- terest : New York, in 1894, had 15,000 houses averag- ing eighteen residents. London, 600,000 houses averag- ing seven residents; at the beginning «f this century it had only 130,000 houses. Paris had 90,000 houses; at the close of the Franco- Prussian war it had 70,000, and at the close of the Napoleonic wars it had only 23,000. The average number of residents in a Paris house was twenty-five, 40 per cent, greater than in New York. The most of the public and office buildings in Paris are utilized for residence purposes, whereas in New York most of the buildings in the downtown district are used entirely for business purposes. Taking a square mile of territory between Wall and Spruce streets and between Broadway and the East River there was,, at an election a few years ago, only 430 voters, representing a total population of about 1 , 750. The unoccupied spaces in parks, gardens and lawns in Philadelphia is seen from the fact that, while its population was only about 1,000,000 in 1890, it had 187,000 houses and an aver- age density of 8,091 per square mile. The facts on the diagram offer material for interesting study ; such as the influence of national life upon urban growth, especially upon that of these principal cities; the serious effect of war upon the growth of cities ; the remarkable change going on in these countries by which the great cities are pushing upward their curves of growth; and, what is perhaps of greater interest still, the quite close approximation that it is possible to make of the time when some of the curves will' intersect and the rank in population be changed, some outstripping others and some falling behind their more prosperous competitors. An approximate estimate may at least be hazarded. 15 predicting the population of the cities under considera- tion at the end of future decades. Certain important possible changes in conditions need, however, to be considered in forecasting such re- sults, among which are, first, the changes which new methods of transportation may bring about, either tak- ing people more quickly and cheaply into cities, or out of them into more distant districts now open areas or sparsely settled country. Second, the congesting or overcrowding of city areas making tliem too dense for comfort or health. These two conditions are already producing changes of magnitude in population. London is an instance of these effects or of some others possi- bly; several of the central districts, instead of showing an increase, showed actual decrease in the last two cen- sus epochs. It is difficult to predict now what change will take place in New York during the succeeding decades by the contemplated transportation changes, such as the open- ing of the new bridges over the East River, the probable completion of the old Hudson River Tunnel, the con- struction of the Rapid Transit Subway lines, the electri- fying of the Manhattan Elevated and the extension of electric lines into the suburbs, and particularly by the construction of the Pennsylvania Railway's proposed tunnel under the rivers and New York, connecting New Jersey and Long Island with the central district of New York City, and additional facilities for handling pas- sengers at the Grand Central Depot and transferring them to the Subway. In 1895 the author was in some cases led astray by the erroneous population estimates, as already stated, and his prediction for 1900 based on them and the ratio of increase which showed was far from correct. The causes above stated, which arrested the growth of Chi- cago, had not shown their influence upon population in 1895. Berlin may be expected to grow quite rapidly for at least two decades more. As the seat of a comparatively new empire, it is still young, strong, vigorous and am- bitious. And in addition to all other reasons for the contin- uance in rapid growth of the above mentioned cities, there must be taken into account that of the modern tendency to gravitate to great centers of population, which modern methods of transportation have ac- celerated. Even with the above problematic conditions disturb- LIBRARY OF CONGRESS JUN 17 1903 16 013 739 226 4 ing the future, there is sufficient ground on which to rest a prediction of population, which the author had the temerity to make first in 1895. - He presents this table again, with the actual popula- tion as given above, placed in juxtaposition to his pre- dicted population : Esiimated Actual Estimated Estimated for lyoO. 19U0. for ll»lO. for 1920. Greater London ' 6,496,000 6,652,145 7,490,400 8,516,256 London 4,599,800 4,589,129 4,967,784 5,315,528 New York (Greater) .. 3,900,000 3,833,999 4,953,000 6,191,250 Paris 2,697,300 1 2,660,559 2,967,030 3,234,063 Greater Paris 13,599,991 4,139,990 4,759,589 Berlin 2,101,400 1,884,157 2,731,820 3,496,729 Greater Berlin 2,512,523 2,914,517 3,322,549 *Greater Chicago 2,400,000 1,838,735 2,574,-229 3,475,209 Philadelphia 1,414,500 1,369,632 1,697,400 2,002,932 St. Petersburg 1,185,600^1,132,677 1,339,728 1,500,495 *Note. — Chicago. The erroneous estimates of population in 1894 require revision of prediction. t Population 1901. :j: Actual population 1897. The author has endeavored, under difficult conditions and by considerable correspondence, to obtain from time to time the population and other features of the growth of cities of over one million population, hoping that the figures would be of use in solving some of the important transportation, economic and social problems of these great masses of humanity. It will be necessary, in 1910, to increase not only the population of cities now discussed, but add several to the list; no doubt one or two cities of Great Britain and some in this country, like Boston, and also Buenos Aires, which expects a population of over a million in 1906 or 1907. ELMER L. CORTHELL, vSc. D. 1 Nassau Street, New York, December, 1902.