THE WORLD IN 
 THE GRUCIBLE 
 
 GILBERT PARKER 
 
GoiPgktN" 
 
 COPYRIGHT DEPOSIT. 
 
THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
Pans fiz Sanforil. Xt-v.- York 
 
 j^l//a*yfi ^K.^'^^'Cn 
 
THE WORLD IN THE 
 CRUCIBLE 
 
 AN ACCOUNT OF THE ORIGINS & 
 CONDUCT OF THE GREAT WAR 
 
 By gilbert PARKER 
 
 NEW YORK 
 DODD, MEAD AND COMPANY 
 
 191S 
 

 Copyright, 191 5 
 By DODD, mead AND COMPANY 
 
 All rights reserved 
 
 JUN 23 1915 
 
 iI,A401486 
 
TO 
 
 J. E. C. BODLEY 
 
 WHOSE 
 
 " FRANCE " 
 
 HAS SO POWERFULLY SHOWN US WHAT GERMANY 
 
 WOULD MUTILATE OR DESTROY 
 
NOTE 
 
 In the analysis of the negotiations preceding the 
 war, and in the various researches necessary to the 
 presentation of historical and current facts, I have 
 been very greatly indebted to Mr. Richard Dawson, 
 whose devotion and faithful care have made my task, 
 with its many attendant difficulties, easier. 
 
CONTENTS 
 
 CHAPTER I 
 
 THE GERMAN EMPIRE FROM WITHIN .V v . I 
 
 CHAPTER n 
 
 THE KAISER AND HIS POLICY 33 
 
 CHAPTER in 
 
 MIGHT IS RIGHT AND WAR IS THE GERMAN GOOD 56 
 
 CHAPTER IV 
 
 THE PLACE IN THE SUN 87 
 
 CHAPTER V 
 
 GERMAN COLONIAL POLICY, THE UNITED STATES, AND THE MONROE 
 DOCTRINE 105 
 
 CHAPTER VI 
 
 THE OPPORTUNITY 126 
 
 CHAPTER VII 
 
 THE CLOUD IN THE EAST . I42 
 
 CHAPTER VIII 
 
 BRITISH POLICY, EUROPEAN AND COLONIAL . 159 
 
 CHAPTER IX 
 
 WHAT DID ENGLAND DO FOR PEACE? I74 
 
 CHAPTER X ♦ 
 "casus belli" 189 
 
 CHAPTER XI 
 
 WAR 207 
 
 vii 
 
viii CONTENTS 
 
 CHAPTER XII 
 
 ENGLAND MOVES 229 
 
 CHAPTER XIII 
 
 "brave BELGIUM" y . . . . 344 
 
 CHAPTER XIV 
 
 THE SEDUCTION OF TURKEY .' r. . . . . . 278 
 
 CHAPTER XV 
 
 SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE AND THE BALKAN QUESTION . . . . 291 
 
 CHAPTER XVI 
 
 CIVILIZATION AND THIS V^^AR . • 314 
 
 CHAPTER XVII 
 
 " FRIGHTFULNESS " > . . . . 342 
 
 CHAPTER XVIII 
 
 LIGHTS AND LESSONS OF THE WAR ...... . . . . 380 
 
 APPENDICES 409 
 
 INDEX 415 
 
THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
ENGLAND 
 
 "I see her not dispirited, not weak, but well remembering that 
 she has seen dark days before; indeed, with a kind of instinct that 
 she sees a little better in a cloudy day, and that in storm of battle 
 and calamity she has a secret vigour and a pulse like cannon. I 
 see her in her old age, not decrepit, but young, and still daring to 
 believe in her power of endurance and expansion. Seeing this, I 
 say, All hail! Mother of nations, Mother of heroes, with strength 
 still equal to the time; still wise to entertain and swift to execute 
 the policy which the mind and heart of mankind require at the 
 present hour, and thus only hospitable to the foreigner, and truly 
 a home to the thoughtful and generous, who are born in the soil. 
 So be it! So let it be!" 
 
 Ralph Waldo Emerson, 1856. 
 
CHAPTER I 
 
 THE GERMAN EMPIRE FROM WITHIN 
 
 The crime of Serajevo was In no real sense the cause 
 of the great war now devastating Europe. It fired 
 a mine, however, which was charged with the mate- 
 rial of generations and had had the very anxious 
 attention of two decades of diplomacy. To discover 
 the origins of this tragic conflict we must travel far 
 behind the events of June and the diplomatic cor- 
 respondence of July of 1 9 14; and that correspond- 
 ence cannot be understood unless read in the light of 
 German " World Politics," or Weltpolitik. 
 
 That Germany has cherished designs of aggres- 
 sion is admitted by her own writers, and by no one 
 more emphatically than by the notorious General von 
 Bernhardi, who has been the busy missioner of Pan- 
 Germanism and Prussian militarism. In his book, 
 Germany and the Next War, this candid champion 
 declares that the German people were condemned to 
 political paralysis at the time when the great Euro- 
 pean States built themselves up and expanded into 
 World Powers ; but that they did not enter the circle 
 of the Powers, whose decision carried weight in 
 politics, until late, when the partition of the globe 
 was long concluded; when after centuries of natural 
 development other nations had attained political 
 union, colonial possessions, naval power, and inter- 
 national trade. Having thus stated the actual and 
 numbing fact, he stoutly says : 
 
 " What we now wish to attain must be fought fovj and 
 won, against a superior force of hostile interests and Powers." 
 
 I 
 
3 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 The attenuated version of the doctrine so boldly 
 enunciated by this enterprising militarist and his class 
 — that Germany must go to war because she must 
 expand and cannot, because she is being choked; be- 
 cause she needs Colonies to receive the overflow of 
 her population; because Great Britain, the robber- 
 nation, obstructs her expansion, may for the moment 
 be dismissed. A nation like Germany, which has 
 given several miUions of its people to the United 
 States alone, cannot complain of having no oversea 
 refuge for her people, especially when German 
 Americans are expected to remain German in all 
 essentials, and to be organized to support German 
 Imperial interests. Of course no nation — least of 
 all one great, proud and powerful — can view un- 
 moved the migration of its most virile and enter- 
 prising sons to foreign lands, to become the wealth- 
 producers of rival countries; but of late years Ger- 
 man emigration has been almost negligible. Grow- 
 ing industrial prosperity and an admirable agrarian 
 system, supported by an equally admirable system 
 of co-operation, enabled Prince Biilow in a recent 
 year to record with complacency that the average 
 emigration from Germany has shrunk to no more 
 than 22,500 persons every year. Contrasted with 
 the figures of British emigration these numbers are 
 infinitesimal. Certainly they are insufficient to be 
 an important factor in precipitating a world-wide 
 war, even if war on such a basis were otherwise than 
 criminal and barbaric. To make war simply to ac- 
 quire territory has every precedent in Prussian his- 
 tory — no student can forget Schleswig-Holstein, 
 Alsace-Lorraine, Poland and Silesia — but it is re- 
 garded with disapproval by all other civilized na- 
 tions. 
 
 Though it is impossible to account for the present 
 
GERMANY'S IMPERIAL FAILURES 3 
 
 aggression of Germany on the ground of commer- 
 cial and economic necessity; on the plea that there 
 was no room to breathe behind the Rhine and the 
 Baltic; that new dominions oversea were indispen- 
 sable to her; it is possible to find one of the true 
 causes in far-reaching political necessity and purpose 
 which could not rely on natural and peaceful devel- 
 opment, accompanied by increased constitutional 
 freedom, responsibility, and opportunity for the 
 masses. Boundless as may have been the ambitions 
 of the now chastened Kaiser, to charge him with a 
 merely aimless lust for World-Empire and the purely 
 adventurous spirit of a chevalier-at-arms would be 
 foolish. He cannot be credited with the higher 
 qualities of Alexander or of Napoleon, whose vision 
 had genius behind it in the days when the spirit of 
 conquest for conquest's sake was still alive in a partly- 
 civilized world. It is only possible to acquit him 
 partially of their unwholesome attributes after study- 
 ing the conditions of Germany as revealed in her 
 contemporary history. 
 
 There is perhaps nothing in all the archives of 
 time more surprising than the failure of Germany to 
 succeed as an Imperial Power. More than once she 
 had Empire — great unorganized Empire — within 
 her grasp, and each time she let it go. She shattered 
 the Western Empire of Rome, but she failed to es- 
 tablish herself on the ruins. She could seize, but 
 she could not hold; the German people have never 
 had the genius either for colonization or for Im- 
 perial policy. 
 
 Charlemagne's Empire covered the whole of cen- 
 tral Europe.^ The Elbe, the Garonne, and Venice 
 
 1 By this it is not meant that Charlemagne was a German. The 
 Prankish Empire, however, included Germany. The Ottonid sov- 
 ereigns, beginning with Otto the Great, asserted their claim to the 
 
4 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 were harbours for his ships; his banner flew at 
 Ushant and Semlin; he was crowned at Aix and in 
 St. Peter's Church at Rome. Even after his death, 
 the German Empire was a splendid fabric. France, 
 indeed, was lost; but to balance that the Ottonides 
 and Hohenstaufen extended their territories to the 
 East, beyond Bohemia and Moravia, even across the 
 Oder and across Pomerania towards Prussia — Bo- 
 russia as it was then named. The Hohenstaufen 
 ruled from the Rhone, the Meuse and the Scheldt 
 to the Slavonic regions on the east, from the North 
 Sea and the Baltic as far as Naples; Denmark, Bo- 
 hemia, and Poland were their tributaries. When 
 Frederick, the last of that great House, was excom- 
 municated and deposed by Innocent IX, with derisive 
 retort he could crown himself with seven crowns — 
 the royal crown of Germany, the Imperial diadem 
 of Rome, the iron circlet of Lombardy, the crowns 
 of Sicily, Burgundy, Sardinia, and Jerusalem. 
 
 So in the space of a few centuries the great Em- 
 pires of Charlemagne, of Otho, and of Barbarossa, 
 rose and fell, springing up under the genius of some 
 illustrious man, and then flickering out like those 
 stars which, brightening for a moment into splendour, 
 die down again to the lowest magnitude, consumed 
 by their own internal fires. In the story of the rise 
 and fall of these dynasties there is a singular monot- 
 ony. Their very military achievements, brilliant as 
 they were and brimming with the romance of adven- 
 ture, become wearisome through repetition. Al- 
 ways there are the expeditions to the south, with the 
 
 Western Roman Empire as deriving from Charles the Great. Al- 
 though, therefore, the Empire of Charles was not German, it was 
 the progenitor of the later German Empire. It may be noted, too, 
 that Charlemagne's capital was on the east of the Rhine and that 
 his crown was preserved in Vienna. 
 
PROFITLESS GLORIES 5 
 
 reconquest of Italy as the first step in the career of 
 every Emperor; always the story of the conqueror 
 recalled from the shores of the Mediterranean to 
 deal with some truculent vassal at home. Warlike 
 enterprises under the standard of the Cross, profit- 
 less conquests on the Po and Adige, valiant deeds, 
 endless slaughter, and nothing to show for it all in 
 the end. If the defeat of the forces of Genghis 
 Khan and the stemming of the tide of Mongol in- 
 vasion are expected, it is hard to point to a single 
 victory gained by the German States which had any 
 permanent influence on their history. But we search 
 in vain amid all this warlike glory of the far past 
 for any signs of a national awakening, such as may 
 be found in England under the early Plantagenets, 
 the contemporaries of the Hohenstaufen. We may 
 find in Richard I a replica of the policy of the Hohen- 
 staufen princes; but under none of them can be dis- 
 cerned such movements as distinguished the reigns 
 of Henry II, John, Henry III, and Henry V of Eng- 
 land. 
 
 Yet there never was a people to all outward seem- 
 ing more destined and fitted for Empire than the 
 Germans. They were homogeneous in blood, pro- 
 lific, virile, gifted with bodily and mental powers 
 above the ordinary, industrious, thrifty, thorough 
 and patriotic. Their geographical position gave 
 them outlets to every sea, while great rivers gave 
 the people of the interior easy access to the ocean. 
 Their lands were well adapted for defence, while 
 their central position afforded them easy means of 
 attack. In spite of all that they failed. Their 
 record is one of complete failure imperially, but of 
 amazing power to establish themselves domestically, 
 to transcend the most discouraging and trying con- 
 ditions in the single state. The proved inheritor of 
 
6 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 these attributes and capacities is Prussia, the bravest, 
 strongest, most merciless and most uncivilized State 
 of the German Empire and of Europe in all that is 
 truly essential to civilization. Bounded on every 
 hand by conflicting powers, the German countries 
 endured and prevailed as separate States always. 
 There were thirty-eight of them in 1815, with Prus- 
 sia, the slowly emerging rival of Austria, at the 
 head. Other nations have been beaten down and 
 blotted out, but not Germany. Her indomitable 
 spirit has always risen superior to defeat, however 
 ruinous. Germans have held the German lands 
 through the centuries, and again and again have 
 spread their rule through almost every corner of 
 Europe. They rose to the opportunity for acquir- 
 ing and developing Empire when the fall of Rome 
 cleared the way; but they squandered their oppor- 
 tunities, and proved themselves unequal to the task. 
 Their epitaph is that of Galba : Capax imperii nisi 
 imperasset. They could conquer, but they could not 
 govern. They could maintain their freedom, but 
 they could not create an empire, though they had 
 rare virtues of nationality, of a *' particularism " 
 never more strikingly shown than to-day. Their 
 present organization is the triumph of a policy of 
 forty years, wherein the separate States of the Ger- 
 many of 1 87 1 have been steadily educated in the 
 cult of war by the Prussian military element; by uni- 
 versities which do the bidding of the Government; 
 by a Press which is a State Press ; by politicians and 
 statesmen who have persistently and systematically 
 told the German people that to them belong the 
 governance of the world, and that by their sword 
 shall the world be redeemed from the other ar- 
 rogant Powers, such as England, that now control 
 it» 
 
GERMAN UNITY A MYTH 7 
 
 At first thought it is perhaps not surprising that, 
 in the past, the German people failed to bring per- 
 manently into their Empire races so divergent as 
 those of Italy, Bohemia, and Burgundy, though 
 Great Britain succeeded, and Rome, Persia, and 
 France had succeeded before her. Out of the 
 Heptarchy grew England, an agglomeration of half 
 a dozen races. Great Britain sprang from union 
 with the Gaelic people of the North and the Celtic 
 people of the West. France built up a solid State 
 out of Provinces widely differing in blood, in lan- 
 guage, and in ideals: from Normans and Bretons, 
 from Gascons and Burgundians and Provencals, even 
 from Germans of Elsass and Lotharingen; Italy 
 evolved union from a dozen States which through 
 centuries had been mortal foes. Germany alone re- 
 mains to-day a congeries of States, which, with all 
 allowance for modern development, in essentials is 
 scarcely removed from the tribal condition of fifteen 
 hundred years ago, in spite of the loud celebration of 
 German unity which has assailed the ears of the 
 world for the last generation. 
 
 Prince Biilow, in his book Imperial Germany ^ ad- 
 mits this with admirable candour. These are words 
 of moment: 
 
 " No nation has found ft so difficult as the German to 
 attain solid and permanent political institutions, although it 
 was the first, after the break-up of the antique world and the 
 troublous times of the migration of nations, to acquire that 
 peace in national existence founded on might which is the 
 preliminary condition for the growth of real political life. 
 Though, thanks to Germany's military prowess, she found 
 it easy enough to overcome foreign obstruction and inter- 
 ference in her national life, at all times the German people 
 found it very hard to overcome even small obstacles in their 
 own political development." 
 
8 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 Indeed, as Prince Biilow further says, the story of 
 Imperial Germany is one in which national unity has 
 been the exception, and Separatism in various forms, 
 adapted to the circumstances of the times, the rule, 
 while what is true of the past is also true of the 
 present. No nation has a history fuller of great 
 achievements in most spheres of man's activity; cer- 
 tainly none will deny that German military and in- 
 tellectual exploits are remarkable ; but the history of 
 no other nation tells of such utter disproportion be- 
 tween political progress on the one hand and mili- 
 tary success on the other. During long epochs of 
 political impotence, owing to which Germany was 
 crowded out of the ranks of the Great Powers, there 
 are few defeats of German arms by foreign forces 
 to record, if the time of Napoleon I be excepted. 
 Her prolonged national misfortunes and failures to 
 seize opportunities of colonial development were not 
 due to foreigners, or foreign aggression or oppres- 
 sion, but to her own fault.^ 
 
 It is impossible to exaggerate the importance of 
 this judgment of his countrymen, delivered by the 
 most notable of German statesmen since Bismarck. 
 Nor is it an isolated opinion. It was not quite orig- 
 inal of Prince Biilow to inform us that political talent 
 has been denied to the German nation, and that the 
 Germans lack that political sense which connotes 
 a sense of the general good, for Goethe, a hundred 
 years before, found '' The Germans very capable 
 individually, and wretchedly inefficient in the bulk " ; 
 while General von Bernhardi, the ever candid, super- 
 ficial, and effusive, insists that there is no people so 
 little qualified as the German to direct his own des- 
 tiny in the field of diplomacy and politics, internal 
 
 2 Von Billow's Imperial Germany, pp. 127-136. 
 
POLITICAL INCAPACITY 9 
 
 and externaL This political incapacity of thinking 
 for the common good; of acting through constitu- 
 tional forms and legislation devised and projected 
 under constitutional forms, for many units in one 
 whole, which has been the persistent attribute of the 
 German race through the centuries, has taken the 
 form of what is variously called by their own spokes- 
 men Separatism, or " the centrifugal forces of the 
 German nation." 
 
 In every department of Influence and activity, 
 wherein political judgment is necessary to accommo- 
 date varying factors in the national organism, the 
 German people are unfortunate In their acts and 
 lacking in vision and understanding. With a some- 
 what fatal gift of logic and speculative thought, and 
 a rare faculty for methodical research, they have lit- 
 tle Instinct for discovery and small Initiative. Lack- 
 ing in true discernment, their values are distorted 
 by an egotism which leads them to believe that mo- 
 tives cannot be seen; that the most elementary per- 
 ception Is denied those whom they oppose, or whom 
 they would control, influence, use, or govern. Po- 
 litical capacity Is a combination of many attributes, 
 and tact. In the real and deeper sense. Is as much an 
 Integral part of statesmanship as capacity. In the 
 politics of a nation It is not enough to accept a prin- 
 ciple, or find an object in itself desirable; the ap- 
 plication of the principle must depend upon and be 
 harmonious with racial character and genius, and be 
 adjusted to particular national circumstances. The 
 desirable end can only be reached by finding those 
 methods and that logic which coincide with the tem- 
 per and character of the people. In a country 
 where the peremptory attitude of mind Is character- 
 istic of the governed and the governing, and where 
 autocracy gives the governing class the Initiative, 
 
10 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 political development must meet with many checks 
 both in internal and external policy. Obedience to 
 the dictates of the ruling class may secure acceptance 
 of policy; but voluntary will and mental assent and 
 reciprocity are necessary to secure the effective work- 
 ing of any constitution and any law, in a community 
 of free men; especially in a community affected by 
 contiguous democratic examples and influence. 
 
 Even with the astute Bismarck at the helm, the 
 Junker's incapacity to be politically wise, to carry out 
 policy along the lines of negotiable resistance, had 
 occasional demonstration, in one case imperilling the 
 Confederation of 1871 at its very start. Aiming 
 at the subjection and elimination, as a political factor, 
 of the Roman Catholic establishment in Germany, the 
 Iron Chancellor passed laws designed to undermine 
 Catholicism as a practical force in the affairs of gov- 
 ernment. But when the Kulturkampf and the Falk 
 Laws raised a storm, and were met by a powerful and 
 hostile demonstration, Bismarck beat a retreat, un- 
 dignified and precipitate, leaving him to the end of 
 his career vis-a-vis of a clericalism in the State which 
 daunted even his bold spirit. 
 
 If tactfulness may be applied to the business of 
 war, the German nation has shown especial inapti- 
 tude for it in the present conflict. Its Press Cam- 
 paign in the United States has been marked by amaz- 
 ing gaucherie and childishness; its Ambassador has 
 been as awkward in pursuing his purpose as his ene- 
 mies could well wish. Whenever by accident or 
 through circumstances some moment's advantage has 
 been gained, as in the case of the difficulty between 
 England and the United States over contraband, the 
 purchase of ships by the American Government, or 
 the sailings of the Dacia, the German Government 
 has immediately neutralized it by acts against inter- 
 
TEUTONIC TACTLESSNESS ii 
 
 national law, ferocious in their nature and futile in 
 effect; such as the bombardment of the unfortified 
 Enghsh coast towns by warships, and of hamlets and 
 villages by airships. The acts in themselves pro- 
 duce nothing save an incomprehensible joy on the 
 part of the German Press and denunciation from the 
 Press and people of all neutral countries ; while naval 
 and military experts have been unable to see the ma- 
 terial advantage to Germany of these demonstrations 
 of savage force against non-combatants and unforti- 
 fied places. The nation they are meant to cow or 
 anger has only deepened its conviction that it is fight- 
 ing an unsportsmanlike country, which breaks all 
 rules, even those to which it has given its hand and 
 seal; defies all principles, even those which are in- 
 herent in that culture to which it ostentatiously pro- 
 fesses devotion; and repudiates the morals of that 
 civilization which it aspires to control. 
 
 In other words, Germany's political acumen, its 
 power to adjust theories to nation-life and world-life 
 are antipodean to its military capacity and power, as 
 it has always been. The leading evening paper of 
 New York, repeating an almost universal editorial 
 sentiment, said of the airship raid of the English 
 coast: 
 
 " It cannot be justified, it has no warrant in International 
 law, and Is against both the spirit and the letter of the Hague 
 Convention. No military necessity can be pleaded. It is 
 a bit of pure savagery, a mere exhibition of ferocity, wholly 
 futile." 
 
 More characteristic still of the blind insistence 
 with which Germany flings all prudence, wisdom and 
 reason to the winds when she wills things to be and 
 her will is crossed by her foes, was her declaration 
 made to the world that she would meet the legitimate 
 
12 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 acts of war of Great Britain in preventing food 
 reaching German ports by torpedoing all merchant- 
 men, belligerent or neutral, with cargoes and passen- 
 gers in a declared war-zone, which embraced the 
 British Isles. No neutral flag would save such mer- 
 chantmen, and lives and ships would be destroyed if 
 they ventured within this prohibited sphere. That 
 did not matter to the government concerning whose 
 acts a great New York paper asks, " Do nations go 
 crazy? " and adds, that Germany could not make this 
 so-called blockade effective, and that if she could not 
 do so it was piracy and nothing else. She would run 
 amok out of rage and resentment at being checked on 
 her conquering course. 
 
 Ever since the war began Germany has spent hun- 
 dreds of thousands of pounds trying to influence 
 American opinion in her favour and against the Al- 
 lies. With the question of the Dacia and the trans- 
 fer of ships ; of the PFilhelmina and conditional con- 
 traband, troubling and even inflaming the American 
 spirit; with every reason for silence, yet she threw 
 away all her advantage in rage at the idea of a British 
 liner flying the American flag, challenged civilization, 
 and defied American opinion; with what results the 
 world knows. It is the madness of the bull in the 
 ring goaded by the bandilleros, and charging the 
 bandilleros while the matador, who is the real enemy, 
 waits till madness and wounds have made all ready 
 for the end. Germany, instead of keeping her eye 
 steadily on the matador, has gone plunging down the 
 arena, forgetting or repudiating the fact that there is 
 a political side to war, and that the rules of the game 
 must be observed, even from the lowest standpoint of 
 material advantage. In the end the penalty for the 
 broken rule is exacted one way or another. Tilly 
 and his Bavarians paid for the sack of Magdeburg. 
 
THE SLAVE OF THEORY 13 
 
 Yet " back to Tilly " has been the cry of the modern 
 German militarist; hence the policy of " frightful- 
 ness " and " hacking the way through." 
 
 Thus always the slave of its theory, military, polit- 
 ical or national, the helpless, because voluntary, vic- 
 tim of merciless logic, Germany deliberately invites 
 the scorn and anger of the world because the act 
 which produces the scorn and anger fits in with " the 
 scheme." The greater end Is forgotten in the imme- 
 diate and fanatically logical purpose. Once the 
 logic is accepted and declared, the end is forced with- 
 out assuagement or modification. 
 
 This is all in odious harmony with the afiront of- 
 fered to a civilized nation, In the proposal made by 
 Germany in the pre-war negotiations that England 
 should repudiate her Ally, France, and hold her back 
 if necessary by force, while Russia was being de- 
 feated. All Germany wanted. If she fought France, 
 was to strip that country of Its colonies and oversea 
 dominions, so reducing her to the position of a sec- 
 ond-rate Power — that was all ! No nation with 
 perception and perspicacity could have made such 
 proposals, whatever the evil in Its heart. She would 
 have foreseen the rejection of them by any honour- 
 able country. Unless she was sure of the dishonour- 
 able character of the nation she was trying to seduce 
 she would not attempt so dangerous a task. There 
 are some things which even a peace-loving nation like 
 Great Britain could not endure; but German policy 
 could not, or would not, see that. The Kruger tele- 
 gram In 1896 was a political blunder of similar na- 
 ture, for unless the Kaiser was prepared for war 
 humiliation could only be the result of that challenge. 
 Political Incapacity denied him the necessary insight 
 to prevent that adventure Into other people's busi- 
 ness. Then, however, was laid the plot to make 
 
14 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 South Africa German ; then began the conspiracy and 
 the dirty intrigues, the spying and the preparations 
 of which General Botha has spoken since this war be- 
 gan; and the details of which will be given to the 
 world in due course. 
 
 Almost as egregious was the Kaiser's blunder from 
 the standpoint of public opinion in his own country 
 and in Great Britain by writing the Tweedmouth let- 
 ter, in which he attempted to modify the naval policy 
 of this country privately through the First Lord of 
 the Admiralty. It had a fitting pendant in the Daily 
 Telegraph interview in which he acknowledged that 
 the prevailing sentiment of his country was not 
 friendly to England; and in which he declared that he 
 had worked out a plan of campaign with his General 
 Staff for the conduct of the South African war and 
 made a gift of it to this country. The storm the 
 Kaiser raised In Germany, the suspicion his over- 
 zealous sympathy aroused in England, were the natu- 
 ral fruits of a perverse political sense which to 
 achieve its end took no account of probabilities, pos- 
 sibilities, or human nature. It is to be noted that in 
 many of the Kaiser's indiscretions he has offended his 
 own people even more than foreigners, and in each 
 case has given fresh evidence of that political Inca- 
 pacity characteristic of his House and his people. By 
 the Swinemunde Despatch of 1903 to the Prince Re- 
 gent of Bavaria, In which he rebuked the Bavarian 
 Diet by offering to pay their rejected annual grant of 
 ^Yt thousand pounds for art purposes, he roused the 
 sharp resentment of Bavarians. The telegram to 
 Count GoluchowskI, the Austrian Minister of 
 Foreign Affairs, approving him as a " brilliant sec- 
 ond " In the " tourney " at Algeclras, was wilfully 
 provocative to Russia as It was humiliating to the his- 
 toric Empire of Austria to which Prussia, before 
 
THE BISMARCKIAN ERA 15 
 
 1866, had played a "wily and unreliable second." 
 The Kaiser's tactlessness in 1908 in expressing his 
 wish that the President of the United States would 
 send Mr. Griscom as Ambassador to Berlin after 
 Dr. David Jayne Hill had been already appointed, 
 was as awkward for the Chancelleries of Berlin and 
 Washington as it was bad-mannered and Intrusive. 
 The incident, not portentous in itself, was but another 
 proof of the sightless political intelligence of the Ger- 
 man over-lord, who has again and again rebuffed, re- 
 buked and offended his own Parliament, which he and 
 his House have ever considered a hindrance rather 
 than a help to good government. 
 
 Travel back through the pages of German history 
 as far as you will, and the same spirit of political 
 tactlessness is to be found and the same practice at 
 work; In less degree, however, within the Bismarck- 
 Ian epoch — that is, from 1858 until the great 
 Chancellor made way for the neutral-spirited Ca- 
 privl. Bismarck's vast ambition made his policy cor- 
 rupt and ruthless; but consummate adroitness and 
 knowledge of human nature made his diplomacy pos- 
 sible and successful. He was sage enough, in the 
 demon-sense, to secure Austria's assistance in the tak- 
 ing of Schleswig-Holstein from Denmark and then to 
 rob her of Holstein; unscrupulous and astute enough, 
 by the battle of Sadowa, to eject Austria, which had 
 been for so long the leader and master of the Ger- 
 manic States, out of the orbit of Germanic power for 
 ever. Realizing that Austria, after 1866, would try 
 for her revenge in as near a day as possible, he de- 
 cided to check the hope completely and for all time. 
 The time was now ripe to carry out the big policy of 
 German national unity — the combination of a series 
 of German States — which could only be accom- 
 plished by an external war. The unpreparedness, dis- 
 
1 6 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 organization and corruption of France offered him 
 his opportunity. By the Siege of Paris and the 
 Treaty of Frankfurt Germanic federation was se- 
 cured, and Austria's revenge was indefinitely post- 
 poned. In 1 848, Frederick WilHam IV had rejected 
 the offer of the Imperial Crown to Prussia, since 
 Prussia was not then strong enough to be master of 
 her sister States, but only a partner with them; but 
 1870 saw Prussia a leader strong enough to dominate 
 the projected union. That was a brilliant period in 
 German history, and, so far as war-policy is con- 
 cerned, it was supreme. It had all the unscrupulous 
 vigour and duplicity of Frederick the Great, the 
 atheist, who became the champion of the Protestant 
 nations, the deserter from the Pragmatic Sanction 
 who robbed Maria Theresa of Silesia. It was the 
 clearly stated policy embodied in Bismarck's phrase, 
 " Not by speeches, nor by the decision of a majority, 
 but by blood and iron." Not by the decision of a 
 majority ! Here spoke the true Prussian in the spirit 
 of the Middle Ages in a country where then and now 
 and always man has been the child of the State, where 
 representative government has been a name, not a 
 reahty. 
 
 The Emperor William I, whom the Kaiser is for- 
 ever celebrating in his speeches, early in his career as 
 King of Prussia wished to abdicate rather than be 
 governed by a Parhamentary majority. Bismarck, 
 however, met the difficulty by governing for some 
 years without a budget and freed from the control of 
 Parliament. In 1867, in the Prussian Chamber, Bis- 
 marck bluntly said : 
 
 " Since the last speaker has expressed a certain degree of 
 surprise that I should have spent perhaps the best years of 
 my public life in combating the Parliamentary right of dis- 
 
BLOOD AND IRON 17 
 
 cussing the Budget, I will just remind him that it may not 
 be quite certain that the army which gained last year's battles 
 would have possessed the organization by which it gained 
 them if, in the autumn of the year 1862, no one had been 
 found ready to undertake the conduct of affairs according to 
 His Majesty's orders and putting aside the resolution passed 
 by the Chamber of Deputies on the 23rd of September of 
 that year." 
 
 For five years Bismarck defied the Chamber's reso- 
 lutions, and after William II came to the throne, 
 when " His Majesty's orders " were rejected by the 
 Chamber in 1893, the Reichstag refusing to agree to 
 increased expenditure for defence, and again during 
 the Morocco difficulty, and on the same basis, the 
 Chamber was promptly dissolved. Then the cry of 
 nationalism and expansion was raised, and the mili- 
 tary element once again triumphed in a country which 
 finds in war its inspiration and its means to material 
 advancement. 
 
 Of Bismarck's policy thus much has remained, the 
 Blood and Iron, hardened into a ghastly creed of 
 conquest: not European conquest alone, but conquest 
 beyond the seas — a policy to which Bismarck was al- 
 ways opposed, declaring that the Germans had no 
 gift for colonization and that long years should be 
 spent in consolidating European possessions. One 
 of those political mistakes which have always pre- 
 vented Germany from retaining empire is to be found 
 In the annexation of Alsace and Lorraine, to which it 
 is well understood Bismarck was opposed, only giving 
 assent to It under pressure from Von Moltke. It 
 was a piece of political Ineptitude and incapacity 
 which time has made more naked. 
 
 There are historians who declare that the seeds of 
 representative government in the world were first 
 
i8 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 sown in ancient Germany.^ However that may be, 
 Prussia, whose King is now the German Emperor, 
 has never yet given democratic government to her 
 people. Democratic government does not exist in 
 the States of Germany (there is more semblance of it 
 in Bavaria than elsewhere) ; though there has been 
 extraordinary social legislation which might well be 
 the product of a socialistic State, its object being to 
 reconcile the masses — and it has been done effect- 
 ively so far as this war is concerned — to a more 
 rigid autocracy than exists in Russia or in any other 
 
 3 In an interesting article published In the Outlook of New York, 
 in November, 19 14, Professor Robert McElray, of Princeton Uni- 
 versity, advances the theory and supports it by references of much 
 point: "The idea of representative government," he says, "so far 
 as its history can be traced, first appeared in the forests of Ger- 
 many, and has long been known among political theorists as the 
 Teutonic Idea. Wherever we find Teutons in the earliest days of 
 European history, we find not only the primary assembly which had 
 been familiar to the' people of ancient Greece and Rome, but also 
 rough attempts at representative assemblies." He explains how 
 gradually the Teutonic Idea was defeated on the continent of Eu- 
 rope, how the gospel of force overcame the gospel of representative 
 government, how Germany ceased to be a nation, and the coun- 
 tries which imbibed her idea presently lost it under the harsh 
 spirit which outspread over Europe from Caesar's rule. But he de- 
 clares that in the British Isles the Teutonic Idea took root and 
 lived, becoming a nation's Charter at Runnymede, being somewhat 
 battered in the period which begot the American Revolution, and 
 springing to life again in the Reform Bill of 1832. After sketching 
 the development of the Teutonic Idea in England, he uses these 
 striking phrases: "There are no Runnymede barons, no Simon 
 de Montforts, no Oliver Cromwells, no Abraham Lincolns, in the 
 history of Prussia. Slowly, but with a grim and terrible certainty, 
 the iron hand of the Prussian War Lord has brought the German 
 nation to exactly the position to which King George III attempted 
 to bring England and the American colonies. In Germany the 
 Teutonic Idea is dead. A mixed race, more Slavonic than Teu- 
 tonic, the Prussian, has deprived the German people of their birth- 
 right. There, as Professor Cramb strikingly phrases it, ' Corsica 
 . . . has conquered Galilee.' The ideals of Prussia remain to-day 
 just what they were In the days of the Great Elector — ideals of 
 absolute monarchy — and the German Empire has accepted them/' 
 
PRUSSIAN ABSOLUTISM 19 
 
 State in the world to-day. Grudgingly and churl- 
 ishly Frederick William IV promised a constitution 
 to Prussia in 1847, together with the pledge that the 
 so-called Parliament should have some control over 
 expenditure ; but when it came to the pinch he with- 
 held the pledged powers and said : 
 
 " I will never let a sheet of written paper come between 
 our Lord God in Heaven and our country, to rule us by its 
 paragraphs and to put them in the place of ancient loyalty." 
 
 Under pressure he gave the Constitution after the 
 Revolution, but he left a letter enjoining his succes- 
 sors to abolish it, lest it should in the end impair the 
 power of the Crown. It is stated, whether or not 
 with truth, that Kaiser William II destroyed that let- 
 ter; in any case he has faithfully interpreted the spirit 
 of it. 
 
 The Revolution of 1848, followed by a period of 
 grave internal disorder, in which the army was the 
 only thing remaining powerfully effective in the 
 State — the one great implement of Prussian power 
 and advancement, had as its sequel the massive and 
 eloquent period of William I and Bismarck. Under 
 them the ground was recaptured which was lost be- 
 tween that period from the death of Frederick the 
 Great until the death of the insane Frederick William 
 IV in 1 86 1. Unwittingly, Napoleon did one great 
 service to Prussia when he arranged the confedera- 
 tion of the Rhine States, thereby laying the lines of, 
 and pointing the way to, future German confedera- 
 tion. Unintentionally also another service was 
 rendered Prussia by Napoleon, when her eastern 
 Polish possessions were taken from her, and her 
 possessions were limited to Brandenburg, Silesia, 
 and the two Provinces, with a total population of 5,- 
 000,000. For the time this indeed lessened Prus- 
 
20 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 sla's problems and difficulties, and forced her to look 
 westward for the increase of empire; not in vain. 
 The Congress of Vienna, in place of the old Polish 
 provinces which Saxony had secured in 1807, en- 
 dowed her with the Rhine provinces, Posen and 
 Pomerania, together with parts of Saxony and central 
 Germany; and thereafter followed, under the in- 
 capable leadership of Austria, a loose Federation 
 without a real constitution, closely allied to the old 
 Confederation of the Rhine. 
 
 There is nothing denunciatory said to-day by the 
 critics of Germany which equals the strictures on her 
 character as a State, not as a people, by Count 
 d'Angeberg, who, with bitterness, in his publication, 
 Le Congres de Vienne et les Traites de 18 15, says: 
 
 " For the Prussian Monarchy any pretext is good. It is 
 altogether devoid of scruples. Mere convenience is its concep- 
 tion of right. ... The terrible discomfiture that has befallen 
 its ambition has taught it nothing. Even at this moment its 
 agents and partisans are agitating Germany, depicting France 
 as being again ready to invade it, pretending that Prussia 
 alone is capable of defending it, and asking it to hand itself 
 over to her for its very preservation. She would have liked 
 to have Belgium. She wants everything between the present 
 frontiers of France, the Meuse and the Rhine. She wants 
 Luxemburg. All is up if Mayence is not given her. Secur- 
 ity is impossible for her if she does not possess Saxony. . . . 
 It is necessary, therefore, to set a limit to her ambition, first, 
 by restraining, as far as possible, her expansion in Germany; 
 secondly, by restraining her influence by means of a federal 
 constitution. Her expansion will be restrained by preserva- 
 tion of all the small States, and by the aggrandizement of 
 those that are her nearer rivals." 
 
 Prussia had in turn deserted Napoleon for the 
 Allies and the Allies for Napoleon, always for a 
 price; the great European prostitute whose virtue 
 
THE POLICY OF GRAB 21 
 
 was for sale. Jena was the consequence. Nothing 
 has changed In Prussia or in Germany since d'Ange- 
 berg's day, so far as character is concerned. Official 
 Germany which, under Frederick the Great, made 
 wars ruthlessly without warning and with only one 
 purpose, the declared purpose of conquest, makes 
 war ruthlessly and for conquest still, with none of 
 the warrant for aggression of that less developed 
 period in which Frederick lived; and In an age when 
 the world desires peace and not war, approves of 
 colonization but not of territorial robbery. 
 
 To enlarge her Empire in her ancient way, and to 
 resist the growing seeds of Internal disruption, Ger- 
 many set forth upon a ghastly foray for gain and 
 territory In the year 19 14, entrenched behind the 
 plans of forty years. Fortunately for the world, a 
 handful of people In Belgium and a handful of sol- 
 diers on the Marne stopped her before France was 
 once again crushed by the heel of the Uhlan con- 
 queror; before she and her accomplice Austria beat 
 back the Russians; before the Balkans were over- 
 borne and their fate sealed to Austria In part and to 
 Germany in part, while for Germany her highway to 
 empire In Asia Minor and Persia was made open and 
 secure. 
 
 In one of his great sane moments, having accom- 
 plished what he wished by dubious methods, Bismarck 
 said: 
 
 *' Even victorious wars can only be justified when they are 
 forced upon a nation, for we cannot foresee the cards held by 
 Providence so nearly as to anticipate the historical develop- 
 ment by personal calculation." 
 
 Like Napoleon, Bismarck always knew well what 
 he ought to do and what nations ought to do, and 
 he was careful enough to break his own rules only 
 
22 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 when he was certain of the result. His policy was 
 marked by stern caution. Knowing the internal 
 weakness of the German character and the natural in- 
 capacity of his fellow-countrymen for political devel- 
 opment, he realized that only by emphasizing the 
 spirit of nationality, while providing the fruits of a 
 spurious liberalism to keep the masses quiet, would 
 Prussian policy preserve the German states and king- 
 dom.s united in an organized Imperial system. Such 
 facts as these must be remembered when trying to un- 
 derstand why a nation like Germany should be so in- 
 flamed into war-policy and war-passion. 
 
 Through lack of political ability,, through want of 
 creative faculty, the German imperial organization 
 constantly tends towards disintegration. The one 
 cure for this " internal disorder " which the German 
 people have ever yet been able to discover is external 
 adventure. " War," says Treitschke, " is the only 
 remedy for ailing nations." They have, however, 
 never been able to find any counterbalance to their 
 diplomatic incapacity, so lamentably shown during 
 the present war, their only definite triumph having 
 been the seduction of Turkey, with its obvious perils 
 to the seducer. 
 
 Bernhardi hints at this truth when he points out 
 that Germany has no half-way house between prog- 
 ress and retrogression. Her first need is ever to 
 strengthen and consolidate the Institutions best calcu- 
 lated to counteract and concentrate the centrifugal 
 forces working in the body politic. This, of course. 
 Is the first duty of every statesman; but the German 
 soldier-philosopher does not attempt to achieve it, as 
 others have done, on Hnes of Internal development 
 and reform and social evolution. It has to be ac- 
 complished by merging all party feeling, all distract- 
 ing and conflicting elements, in a common system of 
 
WAR THE FORCING-BED OF UNITY 23 
 
 defence by land and sea ; and by creating a strong Em- 
 pire controlled by powerful national feeling and 
 policy. But even this is not enough. The spirit of 
 German Separatism is too strong to be neutralized by 
 purely defensive measures. The German people 
 have always been incapable of great acts for the com- 
 mon interest except under the irresistible pressure of 
 external conditions, as in 18 13; or under the leader- 
 ship of powerful personalities, who can inflame the 
 national spirit, arouse the enthusiasm of the masses, 
 and vitalize nationality. In other words, it is ad- 
 mitted by the most prominent of German statesmen 
 and teachers that German unity is a feeble plant 
 which has to be forced in the hotbed of war. 
 
 To find the doctrine of foreign aggression as the 
 antidote to political incapacity set forth with fullest 
 vigour and decision we must search the writings of 
 Prince Biilow. It may seem paradoxical that the 
 carefully-trained and subtle statesman, rather than 
 the rough soldier, should be the more outspoken; yet 
 it is really not so strange as it seems. Bernhardi Is the 
 soldier, loving war for its own sake and in its most 
 ruthless form, and endeavouring to ennoble it by 
 ethical and philosophic sanctions. Prince Biilow is 
 the statesman, not enamoured of war in itself, but 
 convinced of its Inevitable necessity if Germany Is to 
 survive as a single nation. Accordingly, in his work, 
 Imperial Germany^ when dealing with the political 
 regeneration of his people, he frankly abandons all 
 pretence that It has come from within. He does not 
 claim to be the discoverer of the path to the recon- 
 ciliation of the hopes of the German people and the 
 Interests of the German governments. That high 
 distinction he concedes to Prince Bismarck. 
 
 It was Bismarck's good fortune to have at hand a 
 strategist like Von Moltke and an organizer like Von 
 
241 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 Roon. But It was his own intuitive genius which 
 made him see in these men the instruments of federal 
 union. In the Sixties, Bismarck realized that the 
 will-power of the German nation would not be 
 strengthened, or its natural passion roused, by fric- 
 tion between the government and the people, but by 
 the clash of German pride and German honour 
 against the position and power of foreign nations. 
 So long as the unification so desired was a question 
 of home pohtics it was powerless to give birth to a 
 compelling national movement which would sweep 
 States and princes and their people along the tide of 
 a conquering enthusiasm. By making it clear, how- 
 ever, that the issue was essentially one of European 
 politics, Bismarck gave the princes the opportunity of 
 heading the national movement, when the time for 
 developing the policy was ripe. 
 
 Prince Bismarck saw that the unification of Ger- 
 many would not be attained without opposition in Eu- 
 rope. Other nations might watch the movement 
 without apprehension, so long as it was merely an as- 
 piration; they could not view it unmoved when it en- 
 tered on the stage of realization; but in that very op- 
 position and the struggle with it he saw the certainty 
 of success. In the words of Prince Biilow: 
 
 ** The opposition in Germany itself could hardly be over- 
 come except by such a struggle . . .^ with incomparable 
 audacity and constructive statesmanship in consummating the 
 work of uniting Germany, he left out of play the political 
 capabilities of the Germans, in which they have never excelled, 
 while he called into action their fighting powers, which 
 have always been their strongest point." 
 
 Illuminated by this exposition of the exigencies of 
 the German situation, the Bismarckian policy of the 
 Sixties shines out with remarkable clearness — the 
 
WEAKNESS OF THE NEW EMPIRE 25 
 
 ruthless attack on Denmark by Austria and Prussia ; 
 the quarrel of the bandit States over the division of 
 the plunder; the manipulation of the Ems despatch, 
 in which Bismarck altered the words to make it ap- 
 pear that the Emperor William refused to receive 
 the French Ambassador. Truth is, the natural polit- 
 ical impotence of the German race was galvanized 
 into a semblance of real and immense capacity and 
 life by the batteries of Sadowa and Sedan. 
 
 Thus was Germany given a third lease of Empire; 
 of which not half a century has yet run. For a third 
 of that period it looked as though the task so often 
 undertaken and as often abandoned had been con- 
 summated at last. Exalted by the " enthusiasm," 
 which, as Prince Biilow tells us, was Bismarck's great- 
 est creation, the nation set itself to vast schemes of 
 social and economic reform. In the glamour of com- 
 mercial and industrial triumphs, as wonderful as any 
 the world has seen, national unity seemed solidly 
 achieved; yet already there were forces at work to 
 impel the rulers of Germany towards a departure 
 from Bismarck's policy. Enthusiasm is an ephem- 
 eral stimulant, and it has proved powerless against 
 the ineradicable Separatism of German national life. 
 Even though it did not show itself in any overt dis- 
 content in the Germanic States, it made itself felt in 
 the blind bitterness of political parties, and notably 
 in the growth of Social Democracy. The Ottonid 
 and Hohenstaufen Empires had fallen, not as the re- 
 sult of conquest, but by the intrigues of aggrieved 
 foreign States and by German Separatism. By the 
 seizure of Alsace and Lorraine the Hohenzollern 
 dynasty sowed the seeds of similar influences, not di- 
 rect, as in the Middle Ages, but still as injurious to 
 German consolidation. The Statue of Strassburg in 
 Paris was draped in mourning, never to be removed 
 
26 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 until the revanche had been achieved. The existence 
 of enemies connoted a necessity for armaments; the 
 demand for armaments aroused bitter debates; the 
 German Government had to play party against party; 
 all of which rekindled the Separatist parochialism 
 which Prince Biilow deplores with the eloquence of 
 bitter experience. 
 
 It is impossible to read the ex-Chancellor's account 
 of the growth and significance of the Social Demo- 
 cratic movement in Germany without the conviction 
 that German unity was still based on insecure founda- 
 tions; and that the foundations could not be made 
 safe without a further advance towards the constitu- 
 tional absorption by Prussia of the subordinate States 
 of South Germany. The position which the German 
 Government faced during the last twenty years was 
 one of astonishing complexity. The attitude of 
 Southern Germany towards Social Democracy has 
 differed largely from that of Prussia. The peculiar 
 character of Prussia, less free constitutionally than 
 any other German state, yet the backbone of German 
 political life, has made the solution of the Social 
 Democratic problem particularly difficult for Ger- 
 many. The practical modus vivendi with the Social 
 Democrats, attempted here and there in Southern 
 Germany, does not seem possible in Prussia. 
 
 This is Prince Biilow's view and his exposition of 
 the thesis demands the most careful attention. He 
 finds German Social Democracy to be antinational, 
 and incomparably more hostile to the State than the 
 Socialism of France and Italy, which has sprung from 
 great patriotic movements, such as the Revolution 
 and the Risorgimento, both inspired by an intensely 
 national spirit. In his view Social Democracy is the 
 antithesis of the Prussian State : 
 
THE STRUGGLE WITH SOCIALISM 27 
 
 " The Social Democrats hate the Kingdom of the Eagle 
 . . . as being a State of orderly organization, the heart and 
 core of the German Empire . . . whose kings united Ger- 
 many, with which the future of the Empire stands or falls." 
 
 Prussia is still, in greater degree than the other 
 members of the Empire, a State of soldiers and of- 
 ficials, and by her strong control has always evoked 
 a particularly vigorous counter-movement. As a re- 
 sult, whenever the control of the State has been re- 
 laxed in Prussia, the breakdown of her State ma- 
 chinery has been more complete and hopeless than in 
 any other country. If, therefore, the Prussian Gov- 
 ernment had wished to come to terms with Social 
 Democracy, as other German States have done in 
 greater or less degree, its officials and even the Army 
 itself would have regarded it as '^ a shameful sur- 
 render to the enemy, the result would be more fatal 
 in Prussia than the weakness towards the March 
 revolution was " ; and it is very questionable whether 
 another Bismarck could be found to restore the 
 authority of the Crown. To have yielded to the 
 Social Democrats would have shattered that confi- 
 dence of Prussian officials and soldiers in the Crown 
 which is essential to devoted loyalty, and the only re- 
 sult would have been an enormous increase in the 
 strength of Social Democracy. These are Prince 
 Billow's arguments. 
 
 So far as Prussia is concerned, then, the policy is 
 simple. It is that of rigid suppression. But here 
 arises a complication, which must be described in 
 Prince Billow's own words : 
 
 " The peculiarities of Prussian conditions must, of course, 
 react upon the Empire. . . . The Social Democrats will 
 hardly be willing to come to an arrangement in the Empire 
 so long as they are opposed in Prussia. On the other hand 
 
28 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 an attempt on the part of the Imperial Government to make 
 an agreement would have the same confusing and disin- 
 tegrating effect on Prussia as a similar attempt in that State 
 itself. If the Empire is governed without reference to Prus- 
 sia, ill-will towards the Empire will grow in that country. 
 If Prussia is governed without reference to the Empire, then 
 there is the danger that distrust and dislike of the leading 
 State will gain ground in non-Prussian Germany." * 
 
 Here we have a plain confession of forces making 
 for disintegration as formidable as any that threat- 
 ened and wrecked the old German Empires; influ- 
 ences as disquieting as those which produced the 
 Revolution of 1848. If the political demands of So- 
 cial Democracy were refused, German Separatism 
 would remain active ; if they were conceded, political 
 power would be given to a people unprepared for the 
 use of it. In either case the Empire would be threat- 
 ened with disruption. There was, however, another 
 release from the dilemma, at which Prince Biilow 
 scarcely, or very obscurely, hints, but which finds 
 bolder expression in the historian, Treitschke, who 
 has moulded the political thought and aspirations of 
 the New Empire. He sees the only hope of salva- 
 tion in — 
 
 " A single State, a monarchical Germany under the dynasty 
 of the Hohenzollerns, expulsion of the princely houses, annex- 
 ation to Prussia." ^ 
 
 At the beginning of the twentieth century all 
 seemed fair in Germany, to the eye of the ordinary 
 observer who noted the vast strides that the country 
 had made commercially and industrially, who saw 
 how her capacity for organization was so great. Yet 
 
 '* Von Billow's Imperial Germany, p. 232. 
 
 5 From article in the Historical Revieiv for October, 1897, by Dr. 
 J. W. Headlam. 
 
GERMAN HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF 29 
 
 within were *' broils festering to rebellion, old laws 
 rotting away with rust in antique sheaths," new forces 
 threatening the consolidation so brilliantly won. 
 
 Let us review the foregoing pages briefly. Here 
 IS a people, with a history extending over nearly two 
 thousand years, endowed .with all the qualities which 
 go to the making of great Empires, save one, the 
 spirit of Imperial unity and the political capacity to 
 make it successful. From time to time they were led 
 conquering by great men — Hermann, Charlemagne, 
 the Ottonid Princes, Frederick Barbarossa — imbued 
 with the Imperial instinct, gifted with creative genius, 
 and with the divine power of awaking the national 
 spirit. These greatly dared and greatly succeeded, 
 but the prizes they won, the edifice they builded, were 
 but transient glories lost in the benumbing and paraly- 
 sing slough of Separatism. Only a natural strength 
 and valour enabled the race to survive; to 
 make a last effort to rebuild that which had been 
 thrown down. Another ruler appeared after long 
 centuries, himself not great, but happy in his choice of 
 great servants. They together — William I, Bis- 
 marck, Moltke, and the rest — conceived the Idea of 
 a new Empire and created It by the old method of 
 militarism and war. This Empire became greater 
 than any of its predecessors, more wealthy, more 
 powerful, to all seeming infinitely more harmonious ; 
 but even in its majestic structure cracks began to ap- 
 pear. Once again in the long history of Germany, 
 peace threatened to undermine the fabric which blood 
 and iron had cemented. 
 
 This time, however, as never before, the rulers 
 and political thinkers were quick to take alarm. 
 History has lessons for the twentieth century which it 
 did not have for the fourteenth. It has become a 
 science, a philosophy; and the historian philosophers, 
 
30 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 the military scientists, and the diplomatic statesmen, 
 were not to be caught napping as were their forebears. 
 Was disunion again beginning to manifest itself? 
 Then the forces which had called unity Into existence 
 for a term must be brought into action again. The 
 political impotence of the Germanic race must again 
 be offset by potential forces, not political, as in the 
 past. War for conquest would satisfy — or pacify 
 — the discontented and restless elements, as It did in 
 the days of the Crusaders in England; as it did in the 
 days when Henry V went on his mission of conquest 
 to France. Kenneth H. VIckers, In writing of Eng- 
 land in the later Middle Ages,^ says that while, many 
 Englishmen condemned Henry's proposed expedition 
 to France, the main argument which influenced the 
 monarch to invade France, apart from his personal 
 ambition, was the knowledge that there was disaffec- 
 tion in his own country : 
 
 *' Knowing that sedition lurked in secret corners of men's 
 hearts, he determined ' to busy restless minds in foreign 
 quarrels.' He believed, with many other statesmen before 
 and since, that a war would pull the nation together." 
 
 That was In a day when war had sanctions which 
 It does not now possess. Germany, in 1 9 14, believed 
 still that it would, as it ever had done, excite the na- 
 tionalistic spirit of Germany. It was deep-rooted; 
 It was at the core of every German heart. Liberal- 
 ism was but a name. The people had been fed with 
 its so-called fruits, but they were only the bribes of 
 autocracy to reconcile them to a government which 
 was not a people's government, and to a Parliament 
 in which the people's representatives had no real con- 
 
 ^ Oman's History of England , Vol. Ill, chap, xlx, p. 350, 
 
THE DAY — AND THE MAN 31 
 
 trol. The cry of world-power would arouse am- 
 bition, stir the blood of a martial race, dissolve party, 
 and for the moment obliterate Socialism. Further, 
 there was a ruler on the throne, restless, eager, in- 
 stinct with pride of race and family, steeped in the 
 traditions of his people, worshipping at the shrine of 
 its past glories and heroes, cherishing with deepest 
 reverence his great inheritance, impatiently, blindly, 
 honestly resolute to pass it on to his successors in 
 greater splendour. " The Day " came at the bid- 
 ding of the militarists with the Kaiser at their head. 
 Not France, or Austria, or Denmark, or Hanover, or 
 Poland, was the ultimate object of attack this time, 
 but England. From England's Empire, after Rus- 
 sia and France had been maimed, modern Germany 
 would gather new strength to go on, new territory, 
 new power, and new glory. In doing so her people 
 would reunite their forces, disintegration would be 
 stayed, democratic advance would be smothered in 
 national pride and conquest; for another generation 
 at least the autocracy of the throne and the power of 
 the Junker would be strengthened. The spirit of 
 nationality would hush the voices of internal discord; 
 stem any effective movement towards Liberalism; 
 regalvanize the Empire; prevent the work of 1870 
 from sharing the fate of the work of the earlier em- 
 pire-makers of Germany. It was a logical policy, 
 and it was worked out with consummate skill once the 
 end was fixed. The great system of war organiza- 
 tion slowly outspread till it covered every phase of 
 the national life. It was a colossal thing which had 
 to be done, and a colossal implement was manu- 
 factured to do the work. The million little things 
 perfected made the one big thing a prodigious engine 
 of assault. Science, logic, ceaseless industry and 
 
32 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 skilful methods gave such a result that the world only 
 saw in armies of millions of men — fathers, brothers, 
 sons — a hideous machine moving with awful exact- 
 ness upon old battlefields, implacable, desolating, in- 
 human in its grim precision. 
 
CHAPTER II 
 
 THE KAISER AND HIS POLICY 
 
 Forty-five years have passed since the Franco- 
 Prussian War, and William II has occupied the 
 throne of Prussia and been German Emperor for 
 m.ore than half that time. It is, therefore, impos- 
 sible to realize German policy or arrive at an under- 
 standing of German purposes without taking into ac- 
 count his character and personahty, his constitutional 
 position, and his power practically exercised in the 
 State during all that time. When, in 1888, William, 
 already called the War Lord, ascended the throne, 
 he was regarded as a peril to the peace of Europe; 
 and German apologists have of late declared that the 
 best proof of Germany's peaceful intentions was the 
 fact that, despite prophecy, the Kaiser had kept the 
 sword sheathed during all that period. 
 
 It would be estimating Germany and its ruler too 
 lightly to assume that they would have gone to war 
 willingly with this country, or with France or Russia, 
 at any time since 1875, until four or five years ago. 
 Indeed, it is quite certain that so far as an attack on 
 this country is concerned, a further delay to give time 
 for increased naval development would have been 
 welcome. Had circumstances been different; had 
 not the internal conditions of both France and Eng- 
 land been of such a nature as to suggest complete un- 
 readiness and unwillingness for war ; had it not been a 
 conviction of the Kaiser's Government that we would 
 not enter the present conflict, there can be no doubt 
 
 33 
 
34 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 that Germany would have hesitated before striking 
 the great blow which was to decide the future of Eu- 
 rope for many a long day. It was her design to take 
 France and Russia first, and ourselves afterwards. 
 That is the testimony of her own frank commen- 
 tators, who in their disdain, and because they despised 
 us, thought they could say it boldly and to our con- 
 fusion. 
 
 It was essential to her vast ambition and purposes 
 that Germany should be powerful, commercially and 
 industrially; that she should have stored wealth and 
 resources; have secured stability of finance, a world- 
 wide mercantile marine, a powerful navy, and an 
 army of such size and efficiency as could represent a 
 two-power standard, before she loosed her formid- 
 able engine of aggression upon the world. As things 
 turned out there is no doubt that this war came too 
 soon, in one sense, for Germany's designs; but the 
 time and the incidents of contemporary European his- 
 tory were so favourable that she could well waive the 
 increased strength and power which would come from 
 a few more years' waiting, and stake all on the haz- 
 ard. She did so, and in attempting to trace the 
 tragedy back to its source, the Kaiser must ever be 
 kept in mind. 
 
 It is impossible to dissociate his personality, his 
 speeches and his actions from the policy of his coun- 
 try; and this must be said frankly, that his policy 
 and himself are the nation. They are not separate 
 or detached, but are one and indivisible in sympathy 
 and in action where this war is concerned. No ruler 
 of the modern world has ever so completely possessed 
 and controlled both the political and social forces of 
 his country, or the admiration, and, indeed, the af- 
 fections of his people, as William II has done. 
 Parties exist in the State, but the legislative policy is 
 
THE EMPEROR ABSOLUTE 35 
 
 that of the Kaiser. There Is the Chancellor as active 
 statesman In the Reichstag, but really only the mouth- 
 piece of the Kaiser. In any modern democratic 
 party sense there are no leaders, there Is no Prime 
 Minister; the Kaiser Is the fountain of legislative In- 
 spiration, the practical arbiter of legislative action. 
 The Sovereign has the power of absolute veto on 
 the decisions of the two Chambers of the Diet, whose 
 performances In a parliamentary sense are little more 
 than those of the defunct Federal Council of Aus- 
 tralia, which, before the Commonwealth union, 
 passed laws not binding on the Governments of the 
 different provinces. 
 
 There Is no Initiative In a German Parliament; 
 there Is no real responsibility; it affords opportunity 
 for criticism; no more. Ministerial responsibihty to 
 Parliament Is a myth. Bismarck himself said that 
 there was no legal redress against ministers, that the 
 country and Parliament could only say, *' You have 
 acted Incapably, not to say stupidly." The Crown 
 appoints and dismisses ministers, and the Chancellor 
 is merely the alter ego politically of the Kaiser, even 
 when he appears to criticize his master In the Reich- 
 stag. William II, unlike some of his predecessors, 
 has the astuteness to know when to appease the public 
 which has some real or fancied grievance against him- 
 self. He carefully prepares his own sackcloth and 
 ashes, as was the case after the Daily Telegraph in- 
 terview, when his Chancellor let him down very care- 
 fully In the Reichstag, while William ruefully, yet 
 cynically, waited for the storm to pass ; but he never 
 forgave Prince Biilow for the terms In which his peni- 
 tence was expressed. 
 
 German Impatience with the Kaiser has never been 
 very real, as may be judged from the fact that, since 
 1888, there has never been an attempt to readjust the 
 
36 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 position of the ruler and his subjects in the Consti- 
 tution. The Kaiser makes policy, and he carries out 
 policy; his ParHament can advise, can meddle, can re- 
 tard, but, according to the present interpretation of 
 the Constitution, it can do no more. He performs 
 the double function of being his own Prime Minister, 
 initiating legislation and exercising the power of veto 
 at the same time. The franchise shuts out masses of 
 the people from representation, while the Junkers 
 control the Prussian Diet. It in turn controls the 
 Reichstag despite manhood-suffrage, which Is sup- 
 posed to give it democratic character. The system 
 within the systern neutralizes all democratic power In 
 the German Parliament. That member of the Reich- 
 stag who said, " The man who compared this House 
 to a Hall of Echoes was not far wrong," made a just 
 criticism on a paradoxical situation. 
 
 A powerful writer In the Quarterly Review for the 
 first quarter of 1871, says: 
 
 " The mistake apt to be made on this side of the Channel 
 about the political career of Bismarck is that of unconsciously 
 crediting Prussia with the Parliamentary precedents and tra- 
 ditions of England. But the most cherished Prussian tra- 
 ditions and precedents have always been those of military 
 monarchy and aristocracy. These have always been asso- 
 ciated from first to last with all her modern advances in 
 the scale of nations. . . . The organization of the army, due 
 to Frederick WiUiam I and Frederick II, had begirt the 
 throne with a military aristocracy founded on a landed basis, 
 and which has not been taken off that basis by the modern 
 reforms of the system. This has preserved that species of 
 modern feudalism in the Prussian army which regards the 
 obligation of loyalty to the Crown as paramount to that oi 
 allegiance to any paper or parliamentary constitution." 
 
 That was true In the time of Frederick the Great, 
 it was true even In the days of 18 13, when a so-called 
 
IMPOTENCE OF THE REICHSTAG 37 
 
 Liberalism had its birth in Prussia, as Bismarck an- 
 nounced in his maiden speech in the Prussian United 
 Diet in 1847. On that occasion he repudiated the 
 idea that the great movement of that day had any- 
 thing to do with " the popular claims for a constitu- 
 tion," and declared it to be simply a national move- 
 ment for redeeming the country from the shame of 
 1806 and for freeing it from " the disgrace of a for- 
 eign yoke." 
 
 The brilliant writer in the Quarterly quotes Count 
 Rehberg, a Hanoverian statesman, as saying at 
 the beginning of the last century, that " Prussia 
 is not a country that possesses an army, but an 
 army which possesses a country"; and M. Cher- 
 buliez, a French writer, as declaring that *' The 
 Prussian Government sets its Chambers at^ de- 
 fiance, because, in Prussia, there is nothing solid in 
 the shape of institutions save the administration and 
 the army." 
 
 The Junkers who fought the Constitution of Fred- 
 erick William IV would undoubtedly abolish it to- 
 day ; but failing that they bend it to their will with the 
 help of the Kaiser. Who, in our day, ever asks what 
 the German Parliament is doing? The question has 
 been always. What is the Kaiser doing? We have 
 heard more of late years of the influence of the Rus- 
 sian Duma than of the acts of the German Reichstag. 
 The Reichstag has played a small part in the history 
 of modern Germany. The same class of men with 
 Bismarck at their head, who, to build up a great army 
 secretly in 1865, made the constitution a scrap of 
 paper by refusing to submit a budget, are in power to- 
 day. At their head is a sovereign who does not hesi- 
 tate to dissolve his Parliament, as he did in 1893, If he 
 wants money and it hesitates to give It to him. Wil- 
 liam II keeps his head while doing this; Charles I 
 
38 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 lost his. More than once the Kaiser has, In his 
 speeches, set the army above Parliament: 
 
 " The soldier and the army and not parhamentary major- 
 ities and resolutions have welded together the German Em- 
 pire. My confidence is fixed on the army." 
 
 That is the mediaeval attitude, but it was not mere 
 phrasing or mere impulse. It was the echo of his 
 once beloved and finally-rejected master, Bismarck, 
 who, however, took good care not to say such things 
 publicly. William's first proclamation on coming to 
 the throne was to the army; only three days later did 
 he incline himself towards his people and, in a 
 pedantic proclamation to the Prussian nation, bless 
 them also. To do all this required courage and a 
 strong will, and the Kaiser has both. It is an im- 
 mense personality, with a temperament of fatal char- 
 acteristics, balanced to some degree, however, by a 
 real practical ability. That ability is, however, all 
 too often controlled by rashness and impulse. More 
 than all It is crippled by self-approval and the un- 
 happy belief that its possessor alone has the secret of 
 doing things ; from composing an opera to extempo- 
 rizing a sermon or a speech, — and he does it with 
 skill, readiness and rhetoric — upsetting the diplo- 
 macy of Europe, designing the sculptural monstros- 
 ities of the Siegesallee, giving a new turn to military 
 or naval strategy, setting new fashions In tailoring or 
 moustaches, conducting a theatrical performance, ad- 
 vising on domestic afiairs, or passing the word what 
 the people must read and the newspapers say. He 
 can deceive, too. The Inculcation of the usefulness 
 of lying has been a feature of his day as Emperor, as 
 Sir Valentine Chlrol has shown In an article in the 
 Quarterly Review for October, 19 14, in which he 
 says : 
 
"THE SOLDIER IS EVERYTHING" 39 
 
 " During my ten days' stay in the German capital, I spent 
 many hours in the Wilhelmstrasse studying diplomatic doc- 
 uments, put before me as ' extremely confidential,' of which I 
 need say no more than that I am now satisfied they had been 
 deliberately and grossly garbled for my better edification." 
 
 If the conception of a so-called constitutional ruler 
 Is power and the aggrandizement of his dynasty, se- 
 cured by a wonderful army and strong navy, In a 
 country whose pride of conquest and advance got by 
 conquest is great, then militarism and Its evils are 
 bound to flourish and ambition for national glory will 
 bemuse the minds of a people. Then It Is possible 
 for a monarch to say, as the Kaiser did confidently 
 say: 
 
 *' It is my business alone to decide if there shall be war. . . . 
 The more I get behind party cries and party considerations, 
 the more firmly and surely do I count on my army and the 
 more definitely do I hope that my army, whether abroad or 
 at home, will follow my wishes. . . . The soldier has not 
 to have a will of his own; you must all, indeed, have one 
 will, but that is my will ; there is only one law, and that is 
 my law." 
 
 Bismarck reduced all this to an axiom when, with 
 his rare gift of phrase, he said, '' So It is throughout 
 civil life: the soldier is everything, the civilian just 
 what remains." 
 
 The Kaiser Is in short the throne and the power 
 behind the throne; and his policy has been Inde- 
 pendent enough to warrant the term original, though 
 the wisdom of the originality is now being search- 
 Ingly and critically tested. It had its advent on the 
 day when he dropped the great pilot who had steered 
 Germany through heavy seas with skill and insight, 
 and with a mind as astute as it was unscrupu- 
 
40 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 lous, as witty as, politically, it was wanton. Bis- 
 marck was never rash, and therein, with his vision, 
 his wisdom and his craft, lay his power. His 
 satirical remark to a famous British statesman now 
 dead illustrates his contempt for rash adventures. 
 In a certain year of last century he made the mordant 
 comment that, " The wild steeds of French policy 
 are once more galloping through the sands of Tunis, 
 and hard galloping they find it." 
 
 Bismarck's policy had been to develop Germany, 
 commercially and industrially; to make her rich and 
 secure internally, to give her, as he said, " a back- 
 bone of iron and ribs of gold " ; and the process pro- 
 ceeded with the most consummate organization under 
 his firm and steady hand. His idea was to secure 
 commercial domination wherever possible in the 
 world and, having secured that, in some opportune 
 and perhaps distant hour, impose political domina- 
 tion; but political domination within the German 
 Empire was his first and constant thought. With 
 pure Brandenburger pride and ambition he was de- 
 termined that Germany should be ruled by Prussia; 
 that it should be disciplined, dragooned, organized 
 and inspired by the idea that the State was all and the 
 individual nothing save the servant of the State, born 
 to make the State glorious even at the sacrifice of 
 himself in the unit or in the mass ; and that the Ger- 
 man Empire should be the nucleus of a great Euro- 
 pean Confederation ruled by Prussia. The idea 
 prevailed. Germany was practically Prussianized as 
 a whole, and when the present Emperor came to the 
 throne he was in an atmosphere of Prussian pride and 
 ambition which had penetrated even to jealous and 
 reluctant Bavaria. But Prussian materialism, pride 
 and ambition, would not have found the terrible ex- 
 pression of this moment had it not been for the 
 
WILLIAM AND LOUIS QUATORZE 41 
 
 Kaiser, had Bismarck's cautious and conservative 
 policy been continued. An imposing historical 
 parallel to the Kaiser's career may be found in that 
 of a monarch of two hundred years ago. Every 
 student must have been struck by the strange likeness 
 between the policies, and most of all, perhaps, be- 
 tween the men responsible for the wars of 1702-13 
 and those of 19 14. In Louis Quatorze, there is the 
 young man taking in his own hands the power created 
 by Richelieu and Mazarin and thenceforth ruling in 
 lonely absolutism. " I will be my own Prime Minis- 
 ter," said the grand monarch, and Colbert becomes a 
 collector of taxes. Like Wilhelm, Louis must have 
 a place in the sun. He becomes Le Roi Soleil, build- 
 ing and beautifying with lavish expenditure; " over- 
 coming the Pyrenees " to reach at Spain's colonial 
 dominions; scheming and planning aggression 
 through long years ; fomenting civil war in England 
 as a means to an end; ignoring or crushing internal 
 grumblings; piling up taxes on his people; pos- 
 ing as the divinely appointed instrument; pur- 
 suing ambitions which unite Europe against him 
 and in the end shatter the great edifice he has 
 erected. For Mazarin, read Bismarck, for Colbert, 
 read Herr von Bethmann-Hollweg, and little is left 
 to alter. 
 
 From boyhood, William was a dreamer, but a 
 dreamer of the selfish, material, grandiose type, with 
 intellect powerful enough to make him, with his op- 
 portunities, a great force, and with a personality of 
 singular impressiveness. It was clear from the start 
 that, European war or no European war, a mediaeval 
 greed of power was the desire of his heart. He 
 was a spangler from the beginning; though sometimes 
 he assumed the role of modesty, which merely pro- 
 vided a background for outbreaks of passionate 
 
42 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 declaration that he was made a gift to the world and 
 set upon a throne, so that with the blessing of Provi- 
 dence Germany should exalt herself and save the 
 world by her ideals. 
 
 For the last quarter of a century the doctrine has 
 been preached sedulously by German leaders of 
 thought that the modern German Empire must re- 
 new the glories of the ancient German Empire by 
 force of conquest; by the valour of the magnificent 
 " blond beast lustfully roving in search of booty 
 and victory," as Nietzsche, in his new nationalism, 
 put it. It was declared that the inheritance of the 
 ages was theirs; that Germany v/as the only nation 
 which could influence the world for its own good; 
 that the British Empire, decadent, sodden, incapable, 
 had done nothing to justify its place in the world, got 
 by robbery; that it must be displaced to make way 
 for a German Empire; and that a German Empire 
 would establish a new world-life, world-thought, and 
 world-aspiration. Culture and the sword; this was 
 the basis of the policy; material progress to make 
 the power behind the sword; this has been the 
 ideal cherished and nourished by the German people : 
 and the present conflict is the result of a soulless 
 materialism. 
 
 Is this mere rhetoric? From the day William II 
 came to the throne he has been obsessed by the idea 
 that he is a special and chosen instrument of Heaven 
 to speak to his people and to the world through his 
 people. Born under the banners of a brand new Em- 
 pire which was self-made, bravely made, and as 
 showy as a parvenu ; placed higher than all other men 
 in the world, save the negligible King of England and 
 the isolated Tsar of Russia, William still saw himself 
 lacking in the dominions and colonies possessed by 
 those lesser than himself — like the ruler of these 
 
A DIVINE MISSION 43 
 
 islands, who did not know how to manage an Empire, 
 to give it a policy, to make it a blessing to the world. 
 He preached the doctrine that only through himself, 
 a sacredly inspired agent, could Germany be made su- 
 preme; that only through Germany could the world 
 rise to summits of a true civilization and rid itself of 
 the smother of an incubus called the British Empire. 
 He has himself provided an ever-watchful and inter- 
 ested, not to say admiring, world with the 7notif of 
 his grand opera of dominion; has provided a portrait 
 of himself painted by himself, revealing the inner 
 working of a nature as unusual, as varied, as adroit, 
 able and — because of his autocratic position in the 
 constitution — dangerous, as the representatives of 
 any modern dynasties, at least, show. 
 
 On March 6th, 1890, when unveiling the statue of 
 the Grand Elector at Bielefeld, the Kaiser said: 
 
 " Each Prince of the Hohenzollern Hduse is always aware 
 that he is only a minister on earth, that he must give account 
 of his work to a supreme King and Master, and that he must 
 faithfully accomplish the task ordained for him by an order 
 from on High." 
 
 This Is either pure incantation, the cry of the 
 fanatical mystic, the assumption of the impostor, or 
 the utterance of a great actor with a very real pur- 
 pose, intent to mislead. It cannot be attributed 
 alone to his undoubted love of literature of a 
 rhetorical type, which, as his old tutor, M. Ayme,^ 
 has said, showed itself early and was a real taste and 
 inclination. To a nature so ardent and vocal, the 
 purple patches In literature would appeal; they would 
 have an undoubted influence on its expression; but 
 the Kaiser's mediaeval cymbal-clashing was stimulated 
 by the pomp of place, the ordered spectacle of a 
 
 1 Stanley Shaw's William of Germany, 
 
44 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 great army ready to die with his name on their lips, 
 as they have done, indeed, in the day of battle; and 
 the constant clamour of the Camarilla for the march 
 to the German Marathon. A nation, or what looked 
 like it, united to transpose the music of a naturally 
 plangent nature into a noise that woke up and kept 
 awake the Chancelleries of Europe. Generosity and 
 tolerance might attribute such utterances as that just 
 quoted to a highly excited imagination and a young 
 enthusiast's obsession, but twenty-five years after he 
 came to the throne William repeated his *' divine 
 right " theory and announced his sacredly inspired 
 mission. On August 25th, 19 10, at Konigsberg, this 
 was his declaration : 
 
 *' Regarding myself as a tool of the Lord, without consid- 
 eration for the notions and opinions of the day, I go my way." 
 
 To say the least, that is a statement of remarkable 
 confidence and assurance; but eighteen years before 
 this, in 1892, to the Brandenburg Diet, he had al- 
 ready revealed the especially select origin of himself 
 and his forebears thus : 
 
 " God has taken so much trouble with the House of Bran- 
 denburg that He will not desert us now." 
 
 Of late the world has come to think that God did 
 not take suflUcient trouble with the House of Branden- 
 burg, if it must be judged by the leadership of the 
 Kaiser, who takes as his exemplar that notorious but 
 not approved figure of history, Attila, whose chief 
 gift, apart from sheer military prowess, not, it is 
 understood, possessed by his imitator, was sacking 
 towns and murdering helpless civil populations. 
 But the stones and ashes of many a Belgian and 
 French town prove that the Kaiser has well sustained 
 
THE MODERN ATTILA 45 
 
 some of the traditions of '* the blond beast lustfully 
 roving" of bygone days. The matter is important 
 enough to warrant the reference, for it has received 
 full support in the history of the present war, made 
 hideous by the rejection of the laws of humanity and 
 by a cruelty the more loathsome because of the age 
 in which we live; not the age of the Inquisition, of 
 hanging for the stealing of a sheep, of mutilation for 
 an offence against the law — the method of the 
 Mahdi in the Soudan. The Mahdi, the Khalifa, the 
 Mad Mullah, Attila, Alva and Tilly, each inspired 
 their armies with energy, courage, and the love of 
 loot, lust and cruelty; and the last monarch of the 
 Brandenburgs has been able to do the same. 
 
 On July 30th, 1900, so the London Times re- 
 ported — it quotes from the Weser Zeitung of 
 Bremen — William said : 
 
 " Let all who fall into your hands be at your mercy. Just 
 as the Huns a thousand years ago, under the leadership of 
 Attila, gained a reputation in virtue of which they still live 
 in historical tradition, so may the name of Germany become 
 known in such a manner in China that no Chinaman will ever 
 even dare look askance at a German." 
 
 The Kaiser always meant what he said, when thus 
 admonishing his people and his army. The world 
 has mistaken him in this. All these long years he 
 has stood in his shop-window, flourished his sword 
 and declaimed in *' shining armour," which was his 
 figure of speech in announcing that he and Francis- 
 Joseph were brothers in arms — Francis-Joseph be- 
 ing the victim of the embrace; but the world cried 
 "Showman!" and made due allowance. He ad- 
 dressed the Tsar of Russia as " The Lord of the 
 Pacific," and himself as " The Lord of the Atlantic " ; 
 and Great Britain shrugged its shoulders, though in 
 
46 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 the circle of Prussian militarism great and sincere ap- 
 plause greeted his declarations. He was the mouth- 
 piece of the war-makers. The showy and careful 
 rhetoric of his utterances did its work with the Ger- 
 man people. That was what the Junkers wanted. 
 The Kaiser was a first-class herald; a great missioner, 
 a successful commercial traveller for Prussian war- 
 wares. The average person outside Germany re- 
 garded it all as a part of the organized effort of the 
 nouveau riche among the nations to draw attention to 
 itself, to summon the world to mark its wonderful 
 progress — and it was wonderful progress, and the 
 Kaiser had a right to be proud of that at least. The 
 Anglo-Saxon world, however, had a half-cynical 
 good-humoured smile for it all; tolerance refused to 
 see menace in the rainbow or storm-cloud phrases. 
 
 There were those, however, who knew; who 
 realized the exact truth. To them the Kaiser was 
 more than a great advertising agent; than a Bom- 
 bastes Furioso. He was a man, loving his country 
 next to himself, with an insatiable ambition and com- 
 mendable energy; with the maggot of German pre- 
 dominance in his brain. His was a brain of a highly 
 modern type, with a nervous system behind it most 
 sensitively, not to say over-sensitively, strung; with 
 romanticism rooted in him, but with a practical 
 quality which would make it fit in with all sordid ma- 
 terial purposes; with an iron will to hold it there, 
 and, as Bismarck said, without a heart. With him, 
 one fad, or pursuit of theory, gave way to another 
 with lightning rapidity, but each was sustained by un- 
 flagging energy and adroitness while it lasted. 
 Quick at assimilation, abnormal in seizing superficial 
 points, absorbing like a sponge, studious without be- 
 ing scholarly, mad to apply science without a 
 
"HIS OWN PRIME MINISTER" 47 
 
 deep knowledge of science, determined to be the 
 inspiring centre, the magnetic battery for a whole 
 people — in every department of life William II has 
 expended himself without acute judgment, sometimes 
 with rashness, yet with momentarily passing shrewd- 
 ness, and always with an engaging showiness, mental 
 display and grim determination. His egotism, how- 
 ever, has been his bane. He has failed to choose 
 great men who could make him still greater by their 
 knowledge and wise support. Instead of calling 
 upon experienced statesmen to do the work of states- 
 manship, with all the political organization and the 
 spread of policy which it involves, William, in fact, 
 if not constitutionally, has been his own Prime Minis- 
 ter, his own heads of departments. He has been 
 political preacher and propagandist, commercial edi- 
 tor and manager, Draconian lawgiver, diplomatist 
 and social doctor of the nation. 
 
 Maximilian Harden, in his book, Monarchs and 
 Men, speaks thus of the Kaiser's absolute and per- 
 sonal rule : 
 
 " When will the Bismarck drama become historical and 
 take its place in the German myths, to which the pain of fresh 
 experience adds daily ? When the error which turned it into 
 a sad catastrophe is set right ; when the maturing Emperor of 
 the Germans banishes, as he once banished his most loyal 
 servant, the illusion that he can rule alone. No monarch can 
 now rule alone. He must, however brilliant be his endow- 
 ment, think himself fortunate if he can, without shirking his 
 duty, unburden himself of the responsibility for the colossal 
 machine." 
 
 Restless, exuberant, sharp as a street Arab, primi- 
 tive in his vanity as a music-hall actress, ungrateful to 
 those who served him — dropping them like hot po- 
 
48 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 tatoes when his need was over — surrounded by 
 sycophants, lured by dragoons into deeper depths of 
 mihtarism, the Kaiser has always had, however, one 
 persistent idea — the aggrandizement of his coun- 
 try, its control of the councils of the world, its power 
 to swing civilization to a Prussian centre. However 
 much he fluttered, vapouring from idea to ^ idea, 
 " Deutschland iiber alles " was ever ringing in his 
 brain; and his magnetic personality and devotion to 
 his ambition gained for him the loyalty of a people 
 in whom ideas are ever carried to the end with ter- 
 rible and unwavering logic. 
 
 Absolutism in the Kaiser has had a long and suc- 
 cessful run. Caprivi, Hohenlohe, Biilow, Beth- 
 mann-HoUweg have all been puppets, not leaders, 
 and without statesmen guiding the poHcy of parties, 
 with a ruler who controls a Parliament, democracy 
 has had no real opportunity in Germany.^ When a 
 Reichstag objected to the Kaiser's policy, it was sent 
 to the country, where Nationalism, the Navy, Ger- 
 man predominance was ever the cry; and on a wave 
 of Chauvinism the Kaiser got his way,^ in spite of a 
 sullen democracy and a powerful Socialistic party. 
 The cry of future gain by German predominance was 
 the lure ; the world converted by a huge military and 
 naval organization — Germany stretching from the 
 North Sea to the Mediterranean, and westward to 
 the Atlantic, was now the outspoken or now the 
 whispered hope: and again the Emperor, resource- 
 ful, buoyant, domineering, celebrated, had his way. 
 He was a spectacular figure in the world, and his 
 people loved him for it. 
 
 When he wanted more money for defence, when 
 he was annoyed and dismayed by the opposition to 
 increase of the army and extension of the two years' 
 military service, he declared confidently, arrogantly, 
 
KAISERISM AT WORK 49 
 
 like any party demagogue in power, that " He would 
 smash the opposition " ; which he did. The Kaiser's 
 attitude to his people has been consistently patri- 
 archal and Olympian — at once beneficent and tyran- 
 nical. As an instance, let us recall his speech to a 
 deputation of the Agricultural League on February 
 1 8th, 1896. On that occasion he said: 
 
 *' In the desire of helping yourselves . . . you allowed 
 yourselves to be drawn last year into an agitation of words 
 and writings beyond all permissible limits, which profoundly 
 wounded me in my paternal love of the people. To-day, 
 however, like the East Prussians, you have made me forget 
 your fault." 
 
 It reads like the speech of some Oriental potentate 
 of past days, this magnificent assumption of absolu- 
 tism in a democratic world. The power of life and 
 death, the terror of authority, the benevolence of a 
 father, the judgment of a supreme Cadi speaks in his 
 words. It was the heaven-born oracular; and the 
 crushed agriculturists bowed their heads and passed 
 on again to their troubles unrelieved. Kaiserism in 
 the hands of a master taught them to have obedience 
 and faith if they could not have content or justice. 
 
 Fascinated by his advertisement of their common 
 country and his glittering personality, believing that 
 the path which William was treading would lead them 
 to an Imperial predominance, the majority of his 
 people have exhibited in their devotion the same 
 spirit which Prince Henry showed when he was sent 
 to the Far East in 1897 as Admiral in command of a 
 second German Cruiser Division. It was then his 
 august brother said to him : 
 
 " If any one dares to interfere with our good right, 
 ride in with the mailed fist," and Prince Henry re- 
 plied, in these monumental words: " Neither gold 
 
50 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 nor laurels attract me. . . . My one desire is to pro- 
 claim the gospel of your sacred person in foreign 
 parts." 
 
 The Kaiser does not stand upon the ground of 
 democratic advance and peaceful development. 
 War and the achievements of war, a fatuous wor- 
 ship of the Brandenburgers and their military his- 
 tory, have been behind all that he has done. Future 
 war was ever in his mind, as the world now knows. 
 
 He has been devoid of any real sympathy with 
 democracy. His chief idea has been to keep it in 
 order. On May 14th, 1889, he was good enough to 
 say, in addressing a body of workmen, that he took 
 a lively interest in their class. He exhorted the 
 miners to abstain from all connection with political 
 parties, especially with the Socialists, and he added: 
 
 " As soon as I see disorders tending toward Socialism, I 
 shall employ strong measures to repress them; and as the 
 power of which the Government disposes is considerable, the 
 authors of the least disturbance against the authorities will 
 be pitilessly shot." 
 
 The world outside Germany now is aware of the 
 true nature of German policy and character, and it 
 is needless to comment extensively upon it at this 
 point, but one or two further comments may be made. 
 Apologists for the Kaiser and this war have taken 
 offence at the charge made against Germany, that 
 she is not as truly democratic as Russia in her gov- 
 ernment to-day; but has ever the Tsar Nicholas — 
 called an autocrat and a tyrant by the Germans — 
 made proclamation to his people as ruthless as that 
 contained in the foregoing passage, or in the follow- 
 ing: 
 
 " If I ever dream that Social-Democratic opinions are con- 
 cerned in the agitation among the working people of this coun- 
 
THE FOE OF DEMOCRACY 51 
 
 try, I will intervene with unrelenting vigour and bring to 
 bear against such opinions the full powers that I possess." 
 
 The declaration that he, not his Government, will 
 exercise these powers of repression; that he, not the 
 will of his people, will suppress Social Democracy, 
 is enough in itself to show how far removed from 
 modern responsible and representative Government 
 is the administration at Berlin. There is no country 
 in the world where such language could be used by 
 a ruler with Impunity. As was said In the previous 
 chapter, political capacity is feeble In Germany, and 
 with the system of veiled absolutism which exists so 
 it would ever be. Politics as they are understood In 
 the United States, France, Italy, or England, are 
 not known or understood In Germany. Has ever a 
 visitor to that country heard party politics dis- 
 cussed privately, and as part of the everyday life, 
 as they are in other democratic countries? Parties 
 do not make politics in Germany; the Kaiser Is 
 the author of all policies. There Is comment In 
 the Reichstag, but there Is no control of the Execu- 
 tive, and the Constitution permits an almost com- 
 plete despotism In essentials of administration and 
 legislation. 
 
 If the Kaiser has been so ruthlessly Impatient 
 with democracy over the long years, alternately chas- 
 tening It and soothing it, giving It enormous bribes In 
 the way of social reform, but checking It In all politi- 
 cal development, he has been at times equally Impa- 
 tient with his nobility, and they have come under his 
 *' mailed fist " more than once. Addressing his no- 
 bles on September 6th, 1894, he said: 
 
 " I have been profoundly distressed to notice that in the 
 circles of the nobility near me, my best intentions have been 
 misunderstood, and some have been criticized — I have even 
 
52 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 heard of opposition to them. Gentlemen, the opposition of 
 Prussian nobles to their King is monstrous. Opposition can 
 only be justified when it has the King at its head; the history 
 of our House teaches us that." 
 
 He had his way. There were no Runnymede 
 barons among them. We describe as an autocrat 
 the ruler who disregards the advice and ignores the 
 opposition of his councillors ; but what name shall be 
 applied to the ruler who tells his councillors that 
 they must offer no advice of which he does not ap- 
 prove, that they must oppose no measure unless it is 
 opposed by the King? Autocracy may have gone 
 further than this, but obliquity of mind and fatuous 
 misconception seldom if ever. It was the voice of 
 1400 in the year of our Lord 1894. Had the Kaiser 
 been speaking on behalf of the people against the 
 nobles his words might seem less incongruous to mod- 
 ern ears; but William II has been at no pains to con- 
 ceal his isolation from the people, and his entrench- 
 ment in the bosom of an armed force which is as 
 much a weapon to defend the House of Hohen- 
 zollern as to serve the military needs and the aggres- 
 sive purposes of his country. The army was his 
 home, his retreat from both democracy and aristoc- 
 racy. In a world where the mere struggle for ex- 
 istence grows keener and more pitiless every day; 
 where the adjustment of the relations between re- 
 ward and toil is so difficult, needing the devotion of 
 all who lead; when social reform is the demand of 
 modern existence, militarism was and is the refuge 
 of the Brandenburger ! 
 
 In 1894 the Kaiser made a speech which reveals 
 his own inner conception of his ofhce, and shows 
 how distant he is from any co-operation with or con- 
 ception of democracy. The throne first and before 
 
THE KAISER AND THE ARMY 53 
 
 all In his mind, then the people; on the old assump- 
 tion, long since repudiajted by democratic nations, 
 that the salvation of the people lies in the functions 
 of the throne and the benevolence and the wisdom 
 of its occupant: * 
 
 " With deep sorrow did I take up the crown. One thing 
 alone believed in me — it was the army ; and supported by it, 
 and relying on our God as of old, I undertook my heavy 
 office, knowing well that the army was the main support of 
 the country, the main pillar of the Prussian throne." 
 
 Prince Hohenlohe tells how William, then Crown 
 Prince, sided with the soldier clique which, for its 
 own aggrandizement, sought to thwart his own 
 kindly efforts to soften the rigour of German rule In 
 Alsace-Lorraine, and " shared the view of the mili- 
 tary that Frenchmen must be roughly treated." ^ 
 The ever-present, unlovely reciprocity of the army 
 and the Emperor has its origin in a sense of tyranny, 
 hardness and harshness common to both. 
 
 It is not thus that the rulers of England and 
 America speak and act. The main pillar of their 
 position in the State is the faith and confidence of a 
 free, peace-loving, peace-ensuing people. 
 
 To complete the logical sequence of the clauses 
 of the Kaiser's policy of Kingship and Government, 
 one last reference. On August 31st, 1897, unveil- 
 ing a monument of his grandfather at Coblenz, and 
 speaking of William I, he said — and he has said 
 the same thing many times since : 
 
 " He was an instrument chosen by God, and he knew it. 
 For us all, and especially for us Princes, he raised and made 
 to shine most brilliantly a jewel which we must reverence 
 and hold as sacred — Kingship by Divine Right." 
 
 2 Memoirs. Vol. II, p. 387 
 
54 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 Napoleon himself, floated on a tide of militarism 
 from the position of a subaltern unable to pay his 
 laundry bill to the greatest throne in the world, never 
 arrogated to himself such high authority and direct 
 Inspiration from on high, though he was a prince of 
 rhetoricians, with, however, living genius behind all. 
 Though unreasonable and out of tune with Anglo- 
 Saxon views of the functions of a sovereign, of any 
 properly constituted control of a nation, the Kaiser's 
 words were in tune with the temper of the German 
 people. Since 1864 to the present day they have 
 marched with an accumulating record of three suc- 
 cessful wars, carried through by a HohenzoUern, 
 stimulating them, and impelling them towards the 
 promised fruits of another vast war, to be made 
 glorious for Germany by the success of their arms 
 and the rewards of their ambitions. These rewards 
 should be the territories and the savings of other 
 nations. 
 
 For over a quarter of a century the German Em- 
 peror, In sonorous speeches of a common model of 
 oratorical force, and in many acts of an apparently 
 spectacular kind — in reality of a deep and ominous 
 character ■ — has given to the world his own political 
 portrait. To history may be left the difficult an- 
 alysis of his complex character; it is here enough to 
 consider briefly his personality and to uncover cer- 
 tain springs of his conduct as disclosed in his plan- 
 gent speeches, so nakedly outspoken, so much 
 couched In the language of a very minor prophet, of 
 a Jean Paul Richter or a Phlneas T. Barnum. 
 Nevertheless, however much his policy, purposes, 
 and character may be criticized, the world is pro- 
 foundly conscious that for a quarter of a century a 
 virile and attractive Intellect, a practical, capable and 
 wilful character, and a sanguine nature of unwhole- 
 
A FATEFUL DATE 55 
 
 some egotism, stimulated by unsound theories of 
 government and false ideals of nationality, have 
 been at work in Europe; and that a formidable and 
 resourceful personality mounted the German throne 
 on the fifteenth of June, 1888. 
 
CHAPTER III 
 
 MIGHT IS RIGHT AND WAR IS THE GERMAN GOOD 
 
 Before attempting to inquire closely into the nature 
 of the mission to which the Kaiser and his country 
 committed themselves soon after Bismarck's fall, it 
 would be well to consider some of the forces that 
 inspired and supported the Napoleonic ambition of 
 the twentieth century, which, however, as Mr. Bonar 
 Law said in Parliament, has no Napoleon. If there 
 is a citizen of the earth that is vocal it is the Ger- 
 man. He has always thrived on great cries, and 
 made progress only when he has had great men to 
 lead him. He is, and has always been the slave 
 of an intellectual system. The support of a code 
 of thought has been indispensable to his develop- 
 ment; he has relied on pedagogy in every branch 
 of his life, as no other citizen of the world has done. 
 He cannot live without his dogma and his precedent ; 
 and it has been part of his prodigious strength, in 
 combination with his fellows, that he is as loyal and 
 devoted, not to say subservient, to a theory as he is 
 to his Kaiser. He is personally and he is nationally 
 self-conscious, and the national self-consciousness has 
 made him morbid in ambition; he has ever been 
 on the lookout for international slights ; he has been 
 alert and determined to give Germany the power 
 to call the tune to the nations; he has been more 
 concerned for the State, and his honour as involved 
 in the State, than for the development of the individ- 
 ual; than for the common good made greater 
 through the devotion and the sacrifice of the individ- 
 
 56 
 
THE WILL TO POWER 57 
 
 ual, by adjusting one man's needs and views to those 
 of another. He has definitely rejected the creed of 
 the Prussian patriot reformers of the early part of 
 the nineteenth century who were inspired for the 
 moment at least by Kant's dogmatic appeal : " The 
 highest for all men is duty, and the greatest posses- 
 sion in the world is the moral will." 
 
 The present-day German is the victim of the for- 
 mula of thought and conduct to which he commits 
 himself; and he is often massacred by his own re- 
 morseless logic. It makes him fanatical, it renders 
 him ruthless, but it gives him courage for the frontal 
 attack. The end must be his because it ought to be 
 his by his rules of logic. So in this war the soldier 
 has blindly flung himself against impossible positions, 
 because he is a slave to his texts. He defies the 
 opinion of the civilized world; he spurns those whom 
 he wants to support him, — witness his fury with 
 the Americans when they do not approve of his con- 
 duct in defying recognized laws of war because they 
 do not fit in with his need — and he announces the 
 certainty of his success before he has begun to win 
 it, simply because what he wills should be and there- 
 fore must be. It is the Will to Power. It is also 
 the way of the blunderer; but when it is associated 
 with perfection of system, with miracles of organ- 
 ization, with infatuation and courage, its burning 
 ploughshares can furrow a world with agony and 
 ruin before it can be checked. In proportion, there- 
 fore, as the German people are inspired by men and 
 watchwords — or catchwords — they are formida- 
 ble because they have many qualities which are su- 
 preme in their effectiveness. Without the men and 
 the formulae they sink into inaction and forceless in- 
 capacity politically and nationally. They did so 
 in the period between Frederick the Great's death 
 
58 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 and the regeneration of the beginning of the nine- 
 teenth century, and again in that period which im- 
 mediately preceded the rise of Bismarck and Moltke. 
 
 The influence of Frederick the Great has been far 
 more extensive than his greatest admirers, including 
 Carlyle, avow. Discipline, precision, exactness, en- 
 ergy, devotion to detail, and plodding persistency 
 were the characteristics of Frederick's great army, 
 and it was the controlling and pervasive influence 
 in all the life of Prussia of his day. All these quali- 
 ties massed together, directed by a powerful and 
 unwavering mind for an especial purpose, produced 
 an enormous engine of power and an equally enor- 
 mous scheme of national activity in a thousand direc- 
 tions, which is the source and inspiration of German 
 efficiency to-day. It did not mean initiative or that 
 research which leads to discovery, because even Fred- 
 erick's military strategy was tolerably simple and un- 
 complicated, but it did mean that throughout the 
 whole social organism of Prussia there passed some- 
 thing singularly harmonious with the character of 
 the people. Energy without vision, power without 
 sympathy, the ceaseless industry of the treadmill and 
 the care of the usurer, did not make for political 
 freedom, for social adaptability, or for that con- 
 sideration which is necessary in a world where na- 
 tions as well as people differ; but some of the Ger- 
 man professors have been right when, with another 
 purpose and in a somewhat different meaning, they 
 have said in effect that militarism, that is, the army 
 and the army at war, has made German culture what 
 it is. 
 
 Now that German culture has taken the course 
 with which we are all familiar, it is quite possible to 
 agree with the apologists; but it is not in this sense 
 that Frederick the Great and his system can be traced 
 
A NATION ORGANIZED 59 
 
 in the prosperity, industry and the noble energy of 
 Germany to-day. Organization was Frederick's 
 obsession for a lifetime, and he laid the foundations 
 of an organized national life which, while declining 
 with his successor, still was enough a part of the 
 fibre of the nation to make Stein, Hardenburg, 
 Gneisenau and Scharnhorst, supreme organizers all 
 of them, natural products of Prussian life. If for a 
 generation after these laboured in the zenith of their 
 day, Prussia again sank back somewhat through lack 
 of strong men at the head of affairs and through an 
 ingrain political ineptitude ; the instinct and tendency 
 were all there ready to the hand of Bismarck and 
 that greatest of all organizers. Von Roon, to inocu- 
 late a nation with the old love of system, unremitting 
 industry and the application of science to that indus- 
 try. Through every department of Prussian life 
 these qualities, born of the discipline of Prussian 
 arms, passed. Every university organized its work 
 always v/ith a view to fitting it in with the practical 
 ambitions and developments of the nation. The 
 State, that is, the army, made of the professors as it 
 were social and national drill instructors, and every 
 university was in some sense a barracks. At the 
 same time it was not a dry mechanism and sordid 
 scheme; the whole system was lambent, and the flame 
 was fed constantly by the State, and by its leaders 
 with an intense spirit of nationalism, a continuous 
 celebration of the deeds of Germans in the far past 
 and of Prussians in the near present. The pressure 
 behind it all gave stimulus to a spirit noble as power- 
 ful when devoted to great ends, still powerful and 
 glowing when addressed to evil ends. 
 
 All this, however effective in producing material 
 progress and a plodding skill, which may have little 
 to do with capacity for the higher ranges of human 
 
6o THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 effort, does not make a nation great; if it is joined 
 to blind national self-assertion and a strange, 
 doomed belief that the nation has a mission for im- 
 posing its own special scheme of civilization upon the 
 rest of the world, nothing but disaster can ensue. 
 Studiousness, even a splendid studiousness, and 
 great investigating power, a love of philosophy and 
 a language which lends itself to sonorous oratory, 
 have tended to produce in Germany what is called 
 intellectual obfuscation. Not to the statesmen of 
 such a nation is given the Cortez eye, nor to those 
 who serve him is given that sensibility joined to prin- 
 ciple, necessary to successful internal politics, to say 
 nothing of external policies. 
 
 In brief, the splendid organization of the German 
 nation to-day is in essence military. It is an inher- 
 itance without a real break in the chain of succession 
 from the middle of the eighteenth century. It has 
 produced a vast mechanism of all departments of 
 the nation's life, wonderful in its detail and effi- 
 ciency; but it has also produced a mind which Is es- 
 sentially military and Frederician, the abject slave 
 of the big thing. It bends the knee to the 17-inch 
 gun, the maritime leviathan, the Brobdignagian 
 statue, the prodigious opera with its sensuous storm 
 and agony of sound, until the Monstrous Thing has 
 become an ideal and an idol. 
 
 In the Kaiser the Germans of this generation had 
 their man — their great man to their mind, their 
 powerful leader , to the mind of all the world; and 
 in the cry of World Power or Downfall, of victory 
 by the virtue and valour of the Super-race, they had 
 what Americans call their slogan. The Kaiser, who 
 is religious in an Old Testament sense, who has more 
 in common with Saul than with Paul, forever cele- 
 brating the fame and glory of Germany, could not 
 
THE PREACHERS OF EXPANSION 6i 
 
 have set his people throbbing with the idea of con- 
 quest had there not been at hand the instruments for 
 national propaganda. He had an army of editors 
 and professors, of schoolmen and publicists, of ora- 
 tors and soldiers, everywhere preaching the doctrine 
 of " more room, more territory, more power." 
 
 There was the " All-German " League, founded 
 in 1 89 1, which soon achieved a membership of about 
 half a million of the " best minds of the country," 
 publishing " catechisms " and books in which the 
 doctrine of aggression and war, in order to acquire 
 dominion and to impose German ideals upon the 
 world, was sedulously preached. It was supported 
 by numerous other Societies working in special 
 phases of the far-reaching policy, while it had as a 
 powerful ally the Navy League, the membership of 
 which was enormous, and the preachment of which 
 was a navy large enough to enforce German influ- 
 ence in successful, and ultimately overwhelming, 
 competition with English naval power. The 
 strength and popularity of all these societies grew 
 until in the Moroccan difficulty in 191 1, the German 
 representative was, with sly malice, able to say to 
 the French and British diplomatists, " We don^t want 
 war, but public opinion in Germany is ' nervous,' and 
 may easily get out of hand." 
 
 The spirit which made the colossal preparations 
 possible, confident and voluntary, had been stimu- 
 lated by such men as Treitschke, Nietzsche, Clause- 
 witz, and Von der Golz, and if the big Germanic 
 movement is to be understood all of them must be 
 read in conjunction with the Kaiser's speeches and 
 the innumerable books pubhshed on war in Germany 
 year by year. 
 
 We are told by more than one critic at this mo- 
 ment that people are writing about Treitschke and 
 
62 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 Nietzsche who never heard of them before the war, 
 and cannot even spell their names now.^ No doubt 
 this is true; but there are those who have been fa- 
 miliar with the essential teachings of both men for 
 years, and certainly they have the advantage now 
 of good English translations. These allow us all 
 to get a grip of Treltschke's philosophy as distinct 
 from his history, and his main theme in that philoso- 
 phy, namely, the Doctrine of Valour and War. 
 Long before this war broke out such watchful and 
 German-wise students as Dr. J. W. Headlam,^ had 
 drawn the attention of the British people to the trend 
 of his writings. No doubt there is much loose talk 
 about, and some unfair criticism of, Treitschke and 
 Nietzsche, but on the whole they are not being mis- 
 represented by English writers to-day. The texts 
 of their theories are household words throughout 
 Germany, and we have heard them declaimed suffi- 
 ciently to grasp their significance. 
 
 Herr Treitschke was the historian turned rhap- 
 sodist and militarist, with the practical Semitic vision 
 and a material sense which could translate ideals 
 into good coin of concrete use. He and the myriad 
 lesser ones laboured effectively in his day, and have 
 laboured since industriously, but there was abroad 
 in Germany a still more subtle, insidious, and per- 
 verting influence in Nietzsche's work. It has fallen 
 to no man more than this poet-philosopher to have 
 the spirit of his teaching universally accepted, while 
 his own textual philosophy was practically unknown 
 by the public. His was the full-blooded philosophy, 
 the worship of Force. He rejected the doctrine of 
 the greatest good to the greatest number; he repu- 
 
 1 Mr. Sidney Low in the Quarterly Revieiv for October, 1914. 
 
 2 Dr. J. W. Headlam in the Historical Revienv for October, 1897. 
 
THE PHILOSOPHY OF NIETZSCHE 63 
 
 diated the Christian idea of justice, as " slave-moral- 
 ity." He elevated into a creed the doctrine that 
 " Exploitation belongs to the nature of the living 
 being"; that injury, violation and destruction were 
 necessary to the triumph of the Superman, who 
 should be master in a day when " Men shall become 
 finer beasts of prey, quicker, cleverer, and more hu- 
 man." All this, swiftly and in a stealthy flood, since 
 the beginning of the Bismarckian era, saturated the 
 soil of German life on the middle and higher levels, 
 and eventually drained into the lowest levels, till 
 hardness, force and mastery became the creed of all. 
 
 It is not unfair to take from Nietzsche's works cer- 
 tain passages detached from their context for the 
 purpose of showing what a revolting doctrine he 
 preached, because the whole spirit of these passages 
 pervades everything that he wrote. It was his am- 
 bition to eject from German thought the idealism 
 of Kant and Fichte. These represented the power 
 of the spirit which should inspire men to justice, to 
 the betterment of their own race, and the betterment 
 of the world. These declared for law and the gos- 
 pel of right in the making of law, under which, be- 
 ing made, all men should have in the organized life 
 of the community and in unorganized thought and 
 opinion an equality of justice. Upon this ethical 
 conception the old idealists of Germany founded 
 their philosophy; and by it, in spite of all the ruth- 
 lessness of the period and of their race, Prussians at 
 the beginning of the nineteenth century were deeply 
 affected and influenced. 
 
 After 1870, however, the ideas of the new moral 
 revolutionist began to allure the German mind with 
 their glowing ideal of force aggressive and trium- 
 phant, of sordid luxury ; the doctrine of Hercules and 
 
64 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 Sardanapalus. Vague, contradictory, elusive, more 
 poetical than logical, full of brilliance and light and 
 glamour, but with much " interruption of the cir- 
 cuit " of reasoning, Nietzsche was caviare to the 
 general; yet certain elementary things in his teach- 
 ing stood out in simple and attractive clearness, and 
 his popularity, delayed till after his reason had left 
 him, but not till after his death, became very great. 
 It was more easily attained because the basis of 
 his philosophy was obedience to instinct. With the 
 growing materialism of Germany, the exhortation to 
 follow boldly, with the spirit of the master who 
 would make slaves for his service and rejoicing, the 
 primary ardours of human nature, facilitated the ac- 
 ceptance of this rubicund and exciting policy of life, 
 thought and conduct. It was, in brief, the Will to 
 Power, which in common language means. Follow 
 your instincts in seeking what you want, and be 
 strong enough to get it. That, if followed, meant 
 the rejection of the German culture which was the 
 product of the German philosophy of the early part 
 of the nineteenth century, and also the rejection of 
 Christian morals and the spirit of the Beatitudes. 
 Not even to-day, a generation after his death, is 
 Nietzsche's philosophy as a system understood, if, 
 indeed, there was any real system at all; but even 
 as the Elegy stands for all the poet Gray wrote, so 
 certain definite pronouncements of Nietzsche stand 
 for what he thought and wrote. He hated and de- 
 spised German life and culture, but that of him 
 which his fellow-countrymen never understood was 
 incorporated into their national policy and ambitions, 
 and. was used to advance the nationalism which he 
 repudiated. Nietzsche was a complete cosmopoli- 
 tan ; but the weapons that his philosophy gave to his 
 country were used tP harden, narrow, intensify, and 
 
NIETZSCHE AND KULTUR 65 
 
 brutalize the spirit of his country. It is a curious 
 anomaly that the man who has most Influenced the 
 German mind by his pernicious doctrine of Will to 
 Power, rejects completely the pompous and offen- 
 sive claim of all modern Germany, that in German 
 Kidtiir is to be found the salvation of the world. 
 
 With this effrontery Nietzsche has no sympathy. 
 He does not moderate his language in condemnation 
 of German culture : 
 
 " The greatest error at present is the belief that this fortu- 
 nate war has been won by German culture. An iron mil- 
 itary discipline, natural courage and endurance, the superiority 
 of the leaders, the unity and obedience of their followers — 
 in short, factors which have nothing to do with culture helped 
 to obtain the victory. 
 
 At present both the public and private life of Germany 
 shows every sign of the utmost want of culture; the modern 
 German lives in a chaotic muddle of all styles, and is still, 
 as ever, lacking in original productive culture. If, in spite 
 of this well-known fact, the utmost satisfaction prevails 
 among the educated classes, it is due to the influence of the 
 Culture-Philistines." 
 
 So much for Culture. Apart from this, there was 
 to be no sweetness and light in the new Nietzschlan 
 world of the Superman; there was to be no justice or 
 morality, save that morality which each man would 
 make for himself, or which would be imposed by 
 the Master Man on those whom he controlled. 
 
 Let us see what Nietzsche, the spirit of whose doc- 
 trine is the watchword of the German militarists; 
 whose Zarathiistra, we have been told by Haupt- 
 mann, is in the knapsack of every German soldier 
 with Faust and the Bible, says of Christianity. The 
 extracts are given seriatim to provide at least some 
 coherent understanding of Nietzsche's attitude of 
 mind: 
 
66 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 *' Christianity, however, represents the movement that runs 
 counter to every morality, of breeding of race; it is anti- 
 Aryan, the triumph of Caudela values, and the methods hith- 
 erto employed for making mankind moral have been funda- 
 mentally immoral." 
 
 " Christianity has w^aged a deadly v^^ar against the highest 
 type of man." 
 
 " That the strong races of Northern Europe have not 
 thrust from themselves the Christian God, is in truth no 
 honour to their religious talent, not to speak of their taste. 
 They ought to have got the upper hand of such a sickly and 
 decrepit product of decadence as this ' spirit,' this cobweb- 
 spinner, this hybrid Image of ruin, derived from nullity, con- 
 cept and contradiction, this pitiable God of Christian ' mon- 
 otono-thelsm.' 
 
 *' His great invention, his expedient for priestly tyranny, 
 for ruling the masses, was personal immortality. This great 
 falsehood destroys all reason, all natural Instinct. Christian- 
 ity owes its triumph to this pitiable flattery of personal vanity. 
 In plain words, ' Salvation of the soul ' means ' the world 
 revolves around me.' The poison of the doctrine of ' equal 
 rights for all ' has been spread abroad by Christianity more 
 than by anything else. 
 
 " With this I conclude, and pronounce my sentence : / 
 condemn Christianity. To me it Is the greatest of all Imagin- 
 able corruptions. The Church Is the great parasite ; with its 
 anaemic idea of holiness, it drains life of all Its strength, its 
 love, and its hope. The other world Is the motive for the 
 denial of every reality. I call Christianity the one great 
 curse, the one great intrinsic depravity, the one great Instinct 
 of revenge, for which no expedient is sufficiently poisonous, 
 secret, underhand, to gain Its ends. I call it the one im- 
 mortal shame and blemish upon the human race." 
 
 It is not, therefore, surprising to find such a phi- 
 losopher announcing that every human being should 
 devise his own virtue, should draw upon his own 
 " categorical Imperative." No more culture of the 
 old beneficent kind; no more Christianity for a strug- 
 gling world, says the philosophical reformer who 
 
THE KAISER'S DEBT TO NIETZSCHE 67 
 
 has had such an overwhelming influence upon mod- 
 ern Germany; but in its place the worship of Force, 
 and the creed that all men should exploit other hu- 
 man beings, the stronger destroying the weak. The 
 teaching was not without effect, though the Kaiser 
 could only subscribe to a moiety of its tenets; though, 
 according to Mr. Sidney Whitman, the one-time 
 Chancellor, Prince Hohenlohe, said that the Kaiser 
 was the " coolest rationalist " (meaning an agnostic) 
 he had ever met in his life. Apostle of the new 
 Kiiltur of savage war as he is — so much of Nietz- 
 sche is Hohenzollern — he keeps to " the faith of 
 his fathers," interpreting it in his own way, but 
 using the influence of the Will-to-Power philoso- 
 pher to harden and invigorate a people who 
 were in danger of losing that in which they had 
 ever been most proficient, the quality of the war- 
 rior. 
 
 Nietzsche believed that war was not only neces- 
 sary but beneficial — or as others of his creed have 
 called it, " A biological necessity." He declares 
 that, " We must learn to be hard and forget the old 
 valuation of altruism," and his Kaiser sedulously 
 encouraged hardness and the stony mind. He had 
 really no need to do so. Beneath Prussian civiliza- 
 tion is the raw appetite for blood and brutality, for 
 a Scythian cruelty which takes no heed of war's 
 chivalry and humanity. It is not enough that the 
 foe shall be overcome. He must learn what venge- 
 ance is, and what Hate can do; and this war has not 
 failed to show how Hate can be both pitiless and in- 
 sane — and ridiculous. 
 
 M. A. Miigge, in his work on Nietzsche, says that 
 the philosopher's clue to the meaning of the universe 
 was war; and he quotes thus from Zarathustra, the 
 vade mecum of the Uhlan and his tribe : 
 
68 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 " Divinely will we strive against each other. Rather 
 would I perish than renounce this one thing; that I myself 
 must be war and Becoming. What is good? To be brave 
 is good ! It is not the cause that halloweth war, it is the good 
 war that halloweth every cause.'* 
 
 Add to this view, approved by Treitschke, Haupt- 
 mann, and their comrades in the new ethics, Nietz- 
 sche's doctrine that there are two standards of mor- 
 als, one for the masters, the strong, and the other 
 for the slaves, the weak, and some real comprehen- 
 sion may be had of the spirit animating the militarism 
 of Germany to-day. That militarism has eagerly 
 poured Nietzsche's intoxicants into every throat 
 which did not still adhere to the moral teetotalism of 
 Kant. 
 
 If the following paragraphs, the ideas of which 
 are repeated again and again throughout Nietzsche's 
 work, are read together, there is no chance for mis- 
 understanding the spirit now w^orking in Germany 
 at war. It is faithfully reflected in the German War 
 Book, lately translated with pertinent and forceful 
 comment by Professor J. H. Morgan, and com- 
 mented on in another portion of this volume : 
 
 " Out of you a chosen people shall arise, and out of it the 
 Superman." 
 
 " The refrain of my practical philosophy is, ' Who is to be 
 the Master of the World ' ? " 
 
 " What a deliverance is the coming of an absolute master, 
 a Napoleon, the history of whose influence is almost the his- 
 tory of the superior happiness of the nineteenth century ! " 
 
 " The coming century foreshadows the struggle for the 
 sovereignty of the world." 
 
 " The time for petty politics is past ; next century will bring 
 the struggle for world-dominion - — the compulsion to great 
 politics." ^ 
 
 2 Written in the decade in which the Kaiser came to the throne. 
 
THE OVERBEARING LIFE 69 
 
 " There are many signs that Europe now wishes to become 
 one nation. All the profound and large-minded men of this 
 century — e.g.. Napoleon, Goethe, Beethoven, Stendhal, 
 Heinrich Heine, Schopenhauer, and Wagner — have had this 
 unique aim. A boldly daring, splendidly overbearing, high- 
 flying, and aloft-updragging class of higher men, destined to 
 teach their age what constitutes High Man ! " 
 
 If Nietzsche were the only man who advocated 
 this pernicious doctrine, now being translated into 
 practice by a country which repudiates every known 
 principle of International law, it might be taken with 
 a shrug of the shoulder; but evidence is only too 
 plentiful that his influence has been felt in all other 
 departments of German life. Sudermann, Fulda, 
 Halby, Hauptmann, Von Andrejanoff, Georg Con- 
 rad, Kretzer, and many others have sedulously tritu- 
 rated his philosophy through fiction and the drama, 
 and speakers and writers in every direction have 
 praised the lusty, the overbearing life. Those who 
 desired sanction for the remorseless doctrine of war 
 for conquest as preached by Treltschke, found It In 
 Nietzsche, to whom the State Is sacred, and the in- 
 dividual only a child of the State, from whom obedi- 
 ence Is the first principle, whose existence must be 
 absorbed in the policy of the State. 
 
 Thus Treltschke : " The renunciation of Its own 
 power Is, for the State, In the most real sense a sin 
 against the Holy Ghost," while elsewhere he says 
 many times that It Is political Idealism which de- 
 mands wars, while It Is materialism that condemns 
 them; and his criticism of the United States, Great 
 Britain, and the people of all races who desire 
 peace and honour may be found in the following 
 words : 
 
 " It has always been the tired, unintelligent and enervated 
 party that has played with the dream of perpetual peace." 
 
70 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 Nothing that has been here quoted from Nietzsche 
 and Treitschke Is out of harmony with the strident, 
 imperious, dominating temper, eloquent arrogance 
 and gifted rhetoric of the Emperor William's utter- 
 ances. It was not necessary to be learned to follow 
 the main idea of Nietzsche's philosophy — to strive 
 to be a Superman, to follow your instincts, to get 
 what you want by force. And not alone the Eni- 
 peror, his Junker militarists, historians and phi- 
 losophers preached the open and brazen doctrine 
 of conquest for the promotion of selfish interests. 
 German journalism daily fed the flame. An 
 editorial in the Wall Street Journal of November 
 19th, 1 9 14, makes the following quotation from 
 the recent writings of Maximilian Harden, the most 
 notorious, if not the most prominent publicist in 
 Germany, and one of the erstwhile critics of the 
 Kaiser: 
 
 " Let us drop our miserable attempts to excuse Germany's 
 action. Not against our will and as a nation taken by sur- 
 prise did we hurl ourselves Into this gigantic venture. We 
 willed It, we had to will It. We do not stand before the 
 judgment seat of Europe. We acknowledge no such juris- 
 diction. Our might shall create a new law in Europe. It Is 
 Germany that strikes. When she has conquered new domin- 
 ions for her genius, then the priesthood of all gods will praise 
 the God of War. 
 
 " Germany is not making this war to punish sinners, or to 
 free oppressed peoples, and then to rest In the consciousness 
 of disinterested magnanimity. She sets out from the Immov- 
 able conviction that her achievements entitle her to demand 
 more elbow room on the earth and wider outlets for her ac- 
 tivity." 
 
 So much for Germany's purpose in making war. 
 As to the results of the war this fearless iconoclast 
 says: 
 
HERR DERNBURG EXPLAINS 71 
 
 " We will remain in the lowlands of Belgium, to which 
 we will add a narrow strip of coast towards Calais. This 
 will close the war, from which there is nothing more to gain, 
 after having vindicated our honour." 
 
 Since the war began, since Germany was checked 
 on her way to the reconquest of Paris, and it became 
 necessary for her to cultivate the good opinion of 
 neutral countries, solicitous and inspired advocates 
 for the German cause, repudiating such candid pa- 
 triots as Maximilian Harden, indignantly repel the 
 accusation that Germany dreamed of, worked for, 
 planned to secure world-control. It is interesting, 
 if hardly convincing, to observe that the most in- 
 dignant counsel for Germany in this manner is Herr 
 Dernburg, the ex-Colonial Minister of Germany, 
 who is now its expert Press agent in America. Re- 
 pudiating Dr. Eliot's charge that Germany's doc- 
 trine was Might is Right, Herr Dernburg says : 
 
 " This is very unjust. Our history proves that we have 
 never acted on this principle. We have never got, or at- 
 tempted to get, a World-Empire, such as England has won, 
 and all of which, with very few exceptions, was acquired by 
 the might of war and conquest. German writers who have 
 expounded this doctrine have only shown how the large 
 World-Empires of England and France are welded together, 
 what means have been adopted for that purpose, and against 
 what sort of political doctrines we must beware." * 
 
 Pages might be filled with refutation of the mis- 
 statements which Herr Dernburg has so ingeniously 
 crowded into these few lines. It shows some hardi- 
 hood to say that Germany has never dreamed of 
 world-conquest in face of Bernhardi's assertion, al- 
 ready quoted, that what Germany now wishes to at- 
 tain must be fought for, and won, against a superior 
 
 ^Neiv York Times, October 5th, 1914. 
 
72 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 force of hostile interests and Powers; against the 
 statements made by Professor Delbriick, a much 
 greater authority than Herr Dernburg, quoted in 
 another chapter. In such statements Herr Dern- 
 burg is even flouting his former chief, Prince Biilow, 
 who has told us candidly, in his book Imperial Ger- 
 many, that the reason why Germany did not seize the 
 apparently favourable opportunity of the Boer War 
 to attack England was that her naval power was not 
 yet sufficiently developed. 
 
 The real importance of Herr Dernburg's state- 
 ment lies, however, in his repudiation of the doctrine 
 that Might is Right. In repudiating it he repudi- 
 ates all those men of repute who have been forming 
 German opinions for the last quarter of a century 
 and more. Force, strength, and " Will to Power " 
 is for them the sacred sanction of policy. They de- 
 ride Arbitration as an alternative to war, not only 
 on the practical ground that arbitration treaties must 
 be peculiarly detrimental to an aspiring people, 
 which has not reached its political and national 
 zenith, and is bent on expanding its power, but on 
 the scientific ground that arbitration audaciously as- 
 sumes that the weak nation is to have the same right 
 to live as the powerful and vigorous nation. " The 
 whole idea," insists the German prophet on world- 
 war, whose prophecies have been fulfilled, " repre- 
 sents a presumptuous encroachment on the natural 
 laws of development which can only lead to the most 
 disastrous consequences for humanity generally." ^ 
 
 But even the leaders of this school of thought 
 seem to feel that the brutal doctrine of Might must 
 have some moral justification, and they produce 
 a moral justification which to most people will ap- 
 
 5 Bernhardi, Germany and the Next War, p. 34. 
 
BETHMANN-HOLLWEG CONFESSES 73 
 
 pear to plunge It Into deeper immorality. The per- 
 sonal morality of the individual, says Treitschke 
 for instance, rests on the question whether he 
 has recognised and developed his own nature to 
 the highest attainable degree of perfection. If the 
 same standard is applied to the State, then " its 
 highest moral duty Is to increase Its power." The 
 individual must sacrifice himself to the State ; and as 
 there can be nothing higher than the State, the Chris- 
 tian duty of self-sacrifice does not exist for the State. 
 In continuation of this thesis we are told that a sac- 
 rifice made to an alien nation not only is Immoral, 
 but contradicts the idea of self-preservation, which 
 is the highest ideal of the State.^ 
 
 According to the teachers of modern Germany, 
 therefore, the moral justification of the doctrine that 
 Might is Right rests on the question whether the 
 State has Increased Its power to the highest voltage. 
 It must be left to official apologists, such as Herr 
 Dernburg, to square the Germanic view with the 
 morality of less '' cultured " nations. In the at- 
 tempts to do so, and to clear their nation of holding 
 to the pernicious doctrine, they will have to explain 
 away the notorious speech of their own Chancellor 
 to the Reichstag on August 4th, 19 14, on the invasion 
 of Belgium : 
 
 " Gentlemen, we are in a state of necessity, and necessity 
 knows no law. Our troops have invaded Luxemburg and 
 perhaps are already on Belgian soil. That is contrary to 
 the dictates of International law. It is true that the French 
 Government has declared that France is willing to respect 
 the neutrality of Belgium as long as her opponent respects it. 
 France could wait, but we could not wait. We were com- 
 pelled to disregard the just protests of the Luxemburg and 
 
 6 Treitschke Politik, I. § 3, and II. § 28. 
 
74 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 Belgian Governments. The wrong — I speak openly — that 
 we are committing^ we will endeavour to make good as soon 
 as our military goal has been reached. Anybody who is 
 threatened as we are threatened can only have one thought, 
 how he is to hack his way through." ^ 
 
 If anything can add to the cynical brutality of the 
 policy thus announced, it is the sentence in which the 
 German Chancellor talks of compensation. To him 
 the whole thing is purely material, to be atoned for 
 by cash payment. Money, the cash nexus, is to make 
 good devastated fields and ruined homes, violated 
 women and mutilated children, the horrors of Aer- 
 schot, Dinant, and the crimes of Termonde, Lou- 
 vain, Senlis, Vise, and the rest. There is no promise 
 of making good the contempt of treaties, the shat- 
 tering of the faith of nations. Dr. von Bethmann- 
 Hollweg cares nothing for that. Feebleness is the 
 political sin against the Holy Ghost, as Treitschke 
 said; therefore, in being ruthless, Germany is serving 
 the Lord. Weak nations constitute a presumptuous 
 encroachment on natural laws of development; 
 therefore in crushing them Germany is the instru- 
 ment of science, sanctified by the necessity which 
 knows no law. So in Paradise Lost Satan excused 
 his violation of man's primal virtue : 
 
 "^ So, in words not infrequently quoted, did Nikias, the Athenian 
 Admiral, bid Melos abandon her neutrality during the Pelopon- 
 nesian War. " We do not pretend," he said, " that we have 
 any right of empire over you, nor that you have done us any 
 wrong. You, in turn, need not try to influence us by saying that 
 you have not joined with our enemy Sparta in this war; for you 
 know as well as we do that right is only for those who are equals 
 in power; the strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what 
 they must." 
 
 Later in the interview Nikias uses words singularly like those of 
 the Chancellor. "Besides extending our Empire, we shall gain in 
 security by your subjection. The fact that you are weaker than 
 others renders it all the more important that you should not succeed 
 in baffling the masters of the sea." 
 
THE TYRANT'S PLEA 75 
 
 And should I at your harmless innocence 
 
 Melt as I do, yet public reason just, 
 
 Honour and Empire with revenge enlarged, 
 
 By conquering this new world, compel me now 
 
 To do what else, though damn'd, I should abhor.' 
 
 So spake the Fiend, and with necessity. 
 
 The Tyrant's plea, excused his devilish deeds." 
 
 The erudite and powerful writer in the Quarterly 
 Review of January, 1871, already quoted, in his 
 striking article speaks as though he were living and 
 reasoning on the events of to-day. The article is 
 in every word harmonious to this moment. That is 
 so because the criticism of German character and 
 policy which he made then is accurately applicable to 
 German character and policy to-day. Reviewing the 
 Franco-German War and looking into the future of 
 Europe, he says: 
 
 " For the essential weakness of the ' executive principle ' 
 in the law of nations is now aggravated by the predominance 
 of Germany, under the leadership of Prussia. According to 
 the political principles which have governed that State since 
 the time of Frederick H, treaties seem to be only memoranda 
 of the terms of armistice, which need be no longer observed 
 when one of the contracting parties deems it advantageous to 
 disregard them. ... It may be argued but too truly that the 
 prospect of obtaining the general assent of nations to a limita- 
 tion of the right of superior force is not encouraging, seeing 
 that the conduct of the late war by the victorious party can 
 only be justified by the assumption that power of execution is 
 the main element of right. For, if might is right, it follows 
 that any limitation of the exercise of superior force is a limita- 
 tion of right, and those who make that their law of interna- 
 tional relations should consistently scorn any discussion of all 
 limitations as much as they scorn interference between them- 
 selves and their fallen foe." 
 
 If you visit the Museum of Boulak, at Cairo, you 
 will see there Seti in the mummied flesh, in appear- 
 
76 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 ance almost as when he wore the Uraeus Crown 
 and sat on the throne of Upper and Lower Egypt 
 three thousand years ago; and coming out from 
 that house of the dead Past into the light and life of 
 to-day you will find that the past is not, in one sense, 
 dead at all. In the bazaars of Cairo, among the 
 fellaheen tilling their little farms, working the sak- 
 kiahs along the great river, you will still see Seti in 
 form, face and figure, with all the thousand-year- 
 old physical characteristics. Wave after wave of 
 conquest has rolled over the Egyptian, apparently 
 engulfing and obliterating him; but always he has 
 emerged, always he has thrown back again in face, 
 features, physique to the ancient type, and is still, in 
 the day of Sultan Kamel, cast in the mould of Amen- 
 hotep. 
 
 So, too, with the German. Soil, climate, some 
 stout and hidden germ of vigour, have given to him, 
 as to a few other races like the Jews, a persistency of 
 type which has survived the vicissitudes of twenty 
 centuries. Physically and — for the world more im- 
 portant — morally, the German of to-day is the same 
 as the German who strove and conquered in the 
 Teutoberger forest in the dawn of our era. He is 
 still in most essentials a primitive man. It cannot 
 be doubted that Nietzsche had this in mind when he 
 described the ruling influence of the inbred overlords 
 in Germany to-day: 
 
 " These men are, in reference to what is outside their circle 
 (where the foreign element, a foreign country, begins), not 
 much better than beasts of prey. . . . They feel that in the wil- 
 derness they can revert to the beast of prey conscience ; like ju- 
 bilant monsters who perhaps come with bravado from a 
 ghastly bout to murder, arson, rape and torture. ... It is im- 
 possible not to recognize at the core of all these races the mag- 
 nificent blonde brute avidly rampant for spoil and victory." 
 
"THE MAGNIFICENT BLONDE BRUTE" 77 
 
 To these splendid animals, propagated and culti- 
 vated with studious care, guided by rules above the 
 mawkish " good and evil morality " which for cen- 
 turies has degraded and depraved mankind, shall fall 
 the governance of the world. It has been said by 
 the German apologists of the Herr Dernburg type, 
 that neither Treltschke, Nietzsche, nor Bernhardi 
 represents the mind of the German people ; but their 
 fellow-workers In the field of German ambitions and 
 German Kultur are too many to permit of that de- 
 fence. The policy for which they stand has Its thou- 
 sand votaries. " War Is a biological necessity " goes 
 echoing through every school-house, college-hall, fac- 
 tory, office, and Church In the German Empire. Mr. 
 C. R. L. Fletcher, in one of the Oxford pamphlets, 
 quotes the following blast of war philosophy from 
 the Pan-Germanische Blatter for September, 19 14. 
 Its author is Herr K. F. Wolff, and its matter is not 
 incongruous with the author's name : 
 
 " There are two kinds of races, master races and Inferior 
 races. Political rights belong to the master race alone, and 
 can only be won by war. This is a scientific law, a law of 
 biology. ... It is unjust that a rapidly increasing master race 
 should be struggling for room behind its own frontier, while 
 a declining inferior race can stretch its limbs at ease on the 
 other side of that frontier." 
 
 As has been noted, there have been vicissitudes in 
 the history of Germany which threatened this primi- 
 tive type with extinction. But they differ from those 
 cataclysms which caused extinction of type in other 
 nationalities ; speaking paradoxically, they have been 
 cataclysms of peace, not of war. It is curious and 
 significant how the political position of Germany has 
 coloured the whole thought and literature of her peo- 
 ple. The literature, music, and philosophy which 
 
78 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 have made her admired are in the main fruits of 
 what the disciples of Treitschke call the period of 
 her deepest degradation. The literature and phi- 
 losophy of her later splendour are different in tone ; 
 most notably in this, that the material usurps the 
 place of the ideal. 
 
 In studying German contemporary history it would 
 seem as though the character of German thought 
 varied in direct ratio with the rise or fall of Prussian 
 influence. When the Separatism born of political 
 inefficiency prevailed, the softer idealism of South- 
 ern Germany found a freedom which became im- 
 possible with a Germany unified under Prussia, the 
 representative of the primitive German type. Un- 
 der the iron rule of the Prussian superman intellect- 
 ual ideahsm exists with difficulty; in Prussia's new 
 philosophy thought and expression have a positive 
 and palpably material and sordid aim. There is no 
 place for the beneficent abstractions of Kant; phi- 
 losophy must needs concern itself with historic the- 
 ories, transmuted presently into political ethics. 
 Thus, we have German savants, like Hauptmann, 
 Ehrlich, Sudermann, Haeckel, Bode, Liszt, Rontgen 
 and Harnack, issuing a proclamation defending the 
 violation of Belgium and the destruction of Louvain, 
 and informing the world that, " Without German 
 militarism German culture would long ago have been 
 obliterated." Even theology is pressed into the 
 service, to sketch a new creed which it shall be Ger- 
 many's high mission to impose upon the world.^ 
 
 It is in German eyes one of the proofs of Britain's 
 unworthiness for Empire that she has failed to pro- 
 vide India with a satisfying religion. Christianity 
 being rejected, it was Britain's duty to have formu- 
 lated a new creed. Germany will fall into no such 
 error; she has been preparing to make the great ex- 
 
ODIN OR JAHVE 79 
 
 periment; Nietzsche, Lotze, and Hartmann have 
 been developing German thought to that end. " The 
 gloomy spell of Jiidea and Galilee " Is to be broken; 
 Nietzsche, as we have seen, clears away the " accu- 
 mulated rubbish " of the centuries. There is to be 
 new metaphysics, a new ethic, even a new God, an 
 eclectic compound of the deities of a dozen creeds. 
 The new Gospel is to be written ; there are to be the 
 new Beatitudes of Nietzsche, as follows: 
 
 " Ye have heard how in old times It was said, ' Blessed are 
 the meek, for they shall inherit the earth,' but I say unto you, 
 Blessed are the valiant, for they shall make the earth their 
 throne. And ye have heard men say, Blessed are the poor in 
 spirit, but I say to you. Blessed are the great in soul and free 
 in spirit, for they shall enter Valhalla. And ye have heard 
 men say. Blessed are the peacemakers, but I say unto you, 
 Blessed are the war-makers, for they shall be called, if not the 
 children of Jahve, the children of Odin, who is greater than 
 Jahve." 
 
 Why not the children of Moloch? There are 
 many apostles of his creed among the historic and 
 highly-reputed soldiers of Germany. Defending 
 Napoleon's notorious — and infamous — orders for 
 the slaughter of the Turks captured at Jaffa, the late 
 Count Yorck von Wartenburg, Colonel of the Prus- 
 sian General Staff, found that though in the eyes of 
 the mere didactic historical writers this deed may 
 appear horrible and revolting, " Practical military 
 history need not consider it as such. ... If such an 
 act is necessary for the safety of one's army, it is not 
 only justified, but its repetition in any future war will 
 be advisable/^ ^ 
 
 In his book, The Nation in Arms, Field-Marshal 
 von der Goltz, lately Military Governor of unhappy 
 
 8 The italics are the author's. 
 
8o THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 and glorious Belgium, assents to the same thought 
 and counsel: 
 
 *' Inexorability and seemingly hideous callousness are 
 among the attributes necessary to him who would achieve 
 great things in war. In the case of the general there is only 
 one crime for which history never pardons him, and that is 
 defeat." 
 
 Major-General DIsfurth brings his country's doc- 
 trine up to date in an article in the Hamburger Nach- 
 richten of November, 19 14, justifying German 
 methods in the present war. Here are some of his 
 truculent words : 
 
 *' Frankly, we are and must be barbarians, if by this we 
 understand those who wage war relentlessly and to the utter- 
 most degree. . . . Every act of whatever nature committed 
 by our troops for the purpose of discouraging, defeating and 
 destroying our enemies is a brave act and a good deed, and is 
 fully justified. . . . War is war, and must be waged with se- 
 verity. The commonest, ugliest stone placed to mark the 
 burial place of a German Grenadier is a more glorious and 
 venerable monument than all the cathedrals in Europe put 
 together. . . . They call us barbarians. What of it? . . . 
 For my part I hope that in this war we have merited the 
 title of barbarians. . . . Our troops must achieve victory. 
 What else matters ? " 
 
 Pre-eminent in the exposition of the dark creed Is 
 the German War Lord himself. The others are but 
 acolytes. He disdains even the poor plea of neces- 
 sity, he orders wholesale sacrifice on the altar even 
 before the service begins. The words In which he 
 sent his troops to China, In 1900, have been quoted 
 in an earlier chapter, and need not be repeated here. 
 
 The new religion, then, Is founded on Force. To 
 the German, as to Mohammed, " War Is not only 
 heroism, it is the Divine act," To the Prussian 
 
THE SANCTITY OF WAR 8i 
 
 mind tHe Pacifists are not only futile faddists, they 
 are enemies of human progress. When, at the last 
 Hague Conference, the Kaiser was spoken of as a 
 Pacifist, his representatives there and the German 
 Press promptly and strenuously repudiated the sug- 
 gestion. It was a war conference in the eyes of Ger- 
 many, and no such accusation should pass unchal- 
 lenged. 
 
 To-day the sanctity of war is not only asserted by 
 the soldier in the camp, it is taught by every pro- 
 fessor in the class-rooms of Germany. 
 
 In the view of Herr Kuno Fischer — 
 
 " Wars are terrible but necessary, for they save the State 
 from social petrifaction and stagnation. It is well that the 
 transitoriness of the world's goods is not only preached, but 
 is learned by existence. War alone teaches this lesson." ^ 
 
 To Treitschke, war is the influence which evokes 
 all that is noblest in humanity. He cries out against 
 the perversion of morality which wishes to abolish 
 the heroism of war among men, and says oracularly 
 and callously: 
 
 " God will see to It that war aiways recurs as a drastic 
 medicine for the human race." ^° 
 
 And so the later exponent of his gospel, transla- 
 ting it into terms of politics, assures us in all the 
 emphasis of italics that, ^^ The maintenance of peace 
 never can or may he the goal of a policy J' 
 
 Briefly stated, the German idea is this: Strength 
 IS virtue, and weakness is vice; whence it naturally 
 follows that the oppression of weakness by strength 
 is an act of merit. The most powerful State is, 
 therefore, the most moral; whence it follows that 
 
 ^ Kuno Fischer, Hegel, I, p. 737. 
 10 Treitschke, Politik, I, p. 76. 
 
82 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 the standards of Right and Wrong are to be set by 
 the most powerful State. In plain words, those very 
 rules which have been constructed for the protection 
 of weakness are to become the selfish and immoral 
 instruments of mere strength. Following this, with 
 perfect logic, the new national morality lays it down 
 that engagements and treaties are not to be observed 
 if they are immoral, that is, if they limit the momen- 
 tary interests of a new State ; as thus : 
 
 *' Yorck's decision to conclude the convention of Taurog- 
 gen was indisputably a violation of right, but it was a moral 
 act, for the Franco-Prussian alliance was made under compul- 
 sion, and was antagonistic to all the vital interests of the Prus- 
 sian State ; it was essentially untrue and immoral. Now it is 
 always justifiable to terminate an Immoral situation." ^^ 
 
 Illuminated by this philosophy, the neutrality of 
 Belgium was clearly immoral, because it was incon- 
 venient to Germany strategy. The violation of Bel- 
 gium was, therefore, a moral act, and, viewed from 
 that angle, Dr. von Bethmann-Hollweg's confession 
 of wrong was the purest tongue-in-the-cheek hypoc- 
 risy. Indeed, a German professor of universal his- 
 tory ^^ not only defends the invasion of Belgium on 
 the ground of military necessity, but extols it as a 
 heroic decision. 
 
 The remarkable and prophetic article in the Quar^ 
 terly Review for 1871, already quoted, has some- 
 thing to say on the doctrine of Might is Right which 
 is as searching as anything written at this moment, 
 when all that the writer prophesied in 1871 has come 
 true; when the campaign of aggression and conquest, 
 following upon the German successes against Den- 
 mark, Austria, and France, has done its work : 
 
 11 Bernhardi's Germany and the Next War, p. 49. 
 
 12 Prof. Oncken. Suddeutsche Monatshefte, Sept. 14, 1914. 
 
THE DESTROYER OF PEACE 83 
 
 " So long^ as there are countries, great and strong, where 
 political power is held by a sovereign who may wield all the 
 national resources for the gratification of his ambition or his 
 personal ideas — be they avowedly selfish or gilded over with 
 the pretext of a noble aim — wars will not cease. Much less 
 can there be any hope of lasting peace so long as there is in 
 the very heart of Europe a nation whose jurists and statesmen, 
 professors and political writers, join with one voice in pro- 
 claiming, as a fundamental principle of public law, that a 
 right, however well assured, ceases to be a right so soon as its 
 possessor is unable to enforce its observance; a nation which, 
 having persuaded itself that it is the most advanced in civiliza- 
 tion, is ready for any sacrifice to obtain the supremacy which 
 it deems its due. What hope of peace is left when such views 
 are cherished by a people at once the most numerous and the 
 most homogeneous in Europe? When, by a course of prepa- 
 ration, skilfully contrived and carried out through a long 
 series of years, this nation is ready, at the shortest notice, to 
 rise up in a compact mass, with arms and equipments all com- 
 plete, . . . what can the German Empire do henceforth? 
 Such a nation is nothing less than an enormous standing army 
 on furlough, waiting to give practical effect to its lofty claims, 
 and to reap the greatest possible advantage from every oppor- 
 tunity. The people which combines such political principles 
 and aspirations with such an organization is not likely to 
 shrink from war, but to seek it : nor, when successful, will it 
 accept the arbitration of neutrals, save in the way in which 
 the Germans accepted it at the London Conference of 1864, 
 namely, on the express condition of not being bound by the 
 award!* 
 
 In the German view, Power, being the sole meas- 
 ure of merit and the supreme standard of Right, 
 may assert itself as convenience and advantage dic- 
 tate, and may — Indeed, should — assert itself with 
 disregard of suffering. The ideal statesman must, 
 If necessary, defy the verdict of his contemporaries; 
 he must have a clear conception of the nature and 
 purpose of the State ; he must pursue his course, neg- 
 
84 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 lectful of the individual and of all interests save 
 those of the State, which is composed of Olympians 
 whose gospel is force. In plain language he must 
 not care for public opinion, he must settle what the 
 State requires to fulfil its policy, whatever it may 
 be, and then see that it gets what it wants. Being 
 quite clear and determined as to this, and systematiz- 
 ing policy and organizing means on this basis, when 
 the hour for combat strikes he can rise with a free 
 spirit and a serene mind to the inflexible mood of 
 Luther, here interpreted: 
 
 " Briefly In the business of war, men must not regard the 
 massacres, the burnings, the battles and the marches, etc. — 
 that is what the petty and simple do who only look with the 
 eyes of children at the surgeon, how he cuts off the hand or 
 saws off the leg, but do not see that he does it in order to save 
 the whole body. Thus we must look at the business of war 
 or the sword with the eyes of men, asking, Why these mur- 
 ders and horrors? It will be shown that it is a business 
 divine in itself, and as needful and necessary to the world as 
 eating or drinking or any other work." ^^ 
 
 Therefore the ideal statesman in his actions hon- 
 ours with unenviable imitation the essential charac- 
 teristics of Nietzsche's ideal ruler, the Caesar that 
 knows no law save Necessity and Ambition. 
 
 There are doubtless many Germans — it would be 
 unpardonable to libel a whole nation — who do not 
 subscribe in private to this theory of national poli- 
 tics; indeed, it is certain that if stated in set terms 
 it would be abhorrent to a large section of German 
 thought, and there are some German writers daring 
 enough to deprecate it. Their opinions, however, 
 do not count. Their dissent is, in fact, regarded as 
 a phase of the innate and ruinous Separatist spirit 
 
 1^ Bernhardi's Germany and the Next War, p. 54. 
 
GERMAN VIEW OF THE STATE 85 
 
 of the German race, which it is the mission of Prus- 
 sianism to suppress, even by the sword, as the Kaiser 
 has said. The doctrines of the extremists in phi- 
 losophy and the theories of the militarists have never, 
 however, been badly put to the German people. 
 As was shown earlier in this chapter the spirit of the 
 doctrines and the theories were crystallized into catch- 
 words and formulae, and gave a definite temper of 
 conquest, of national self-consciousness which be- 
 came a thirst for more recognition, more power. 
 
 Not the least of the causes which has hastened on 
 this war is the divorce between the German people 
 and the German State. To Nietzsche, to Treit- 
 schke, to Bernhardi, to Reventlow, to Von der Goltz, 
 above all to the Kaiser, the State is a separate or- 
 ganized entity, as one might say a human absolutism, 
 a ruling class of armed oracles, placed outside and 
 above the people. Treitschke, in one of his lectures 
 delivered at Berlin University, ^^ says of the State : 
 
 *' It is not the totality of the people, as Hegel assumed in 
 his deification of the State — the people is not altogether 
 amalgamated with it. . . . On principle it does not ask how 
 the people is disposed ; it demands obedience ; its laws must be 
 kept whether willingly or unwillingly." 
 
 Americans, Enghshmen, Frenchmen, accustomed 
 to regard themselves as the State and the State as 
 composed of themselves, must find it difficult to re- 
 alize the conception of a dual organism such as that 
 of Germany — a people trading, toiling, living un- 
 der and dying for a mysterious thing, composite of 
 men but acting like a machine ; whose word is the only 
 law, which, looking upon itself as a divine instrument, 
 is " indifferent to the point of view of the present 
 
 ^^PoHtik, Book I, Section I. 
 
86 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 day," and sits " on the hills like gods together care- 
 less of mankind." 
 
 Yet that conception must be grasped, if we would 
 understand the true meaning of the theory that the 
 morality of the State need not coincide with the 
 morality of the individuals who compose it. Once 
 grasped, however, the understanding of the new 
 doctrine is not difficult. It is, after all, the old prim- 
 itive doctrine that Might is Right, draped in the 
 tawdry garments of an idealized materialism. Baldly 
 stated, it is this : First determine what you want to 
 get, make sure that you are strong enough to get it, 
 and then persuade yourself that you have a mission. 
 Create spacious and glittering ideals to cover your 
 lust for power; invent the doctrine that power is 
 morality; and then set forth, under banner of ruth- 
 less war, to plant your ideals, irrespective of human 
 law or human sufferings, in proportion to your 
 strength and in accord with your opportunity. Jus- 
 tice and justification must then infallibly be on your 
 side; for by the canons of the creed you have de- 
 vised, the sole tests of right and wrong are Advan- 
 tage, Power and Opportunity. 
 
CHAPTER IV 
 
 THE PLACE IN THE SUN 
 
 When the Kaiser was crowned the circumstances of 
 the time were propitious to the development of his 
 well-known aspirations for the advancement of Ger- 
 many. The prodigious strides which his country- 
 had made in commerce and industry in the twenty 
 years following on the founding of the Empire lured 
 ardent ambition, intoxicated with unaccustomed 
 wealth, to greater exploits; the easy triumphs of 
 1864, 1866 and 1870 had created, not only in Ger- 
 many but in Europe, a belief in the invincible char- 
 acter of German arms. Yet there was already, In 
 1890, at Berlin a hovering consciousness that Ger- 
 man unity was not yet fully accomplished, that for 
 its attainment another great foreign adventure was 
 necessary. There was something more than a sus- 
 picion among the political cognoscenti, there was an 
 actual fear that prosperity had not been an unmixed 
 blessing; that it had brought in Its train some soften- 
 ing of character which must be cured. Wealth was 
 exalting the middle classes; they were beginning to 
 press upon the " high-born." In other States this 
 gradual fusion of class distinction might have been 
 welcomed as a step towards national unity; to Prus- 
 sian Junkerdom It appeared a dangerous subversion 
 of Its social theories and a menace to military great- 
 ness and power. 
 
 To such a ruler and amid such surroundings the 
 patience and prudence of Bismarck were hardly toler- 
 able. There was already a school of thought which 
 
 ' ^7 
 
88 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 repudiated the advice of the old EmpIre-buUder 
 against unprovoked war and extra-European expan- 
 sion; and the Emperor was one of its disciples. 
 Within three years after ascending the throne he 
 dropped the pilot and entered on the path, the end 
 of which is now almost in view. 
 
 If the Emperor was moved to dismiss Prince Bis- 
 marck by ambition, the act of dismissal hurried him 
 along the fatal path with increased momentum. 
 Prince Biilow has lifted the veil of the Nineties with 
 remarkable frankness: 
 
 " In view of the anxious and discouraged state of feeling 
 that obtained in Germany during the ten years following 
 Prince Bismarck's retirement, it was only possible to rouse 
 public opinion by harping on the string of nationalism, and 
 waking the people to consciousness. A great oppression which 
 weighed upon the spirit of the nation had been occasioned by 
 the rupture between the wearer of the Imperial Crown and 
 the mighty man who had brought it up from the depths of 
 Kyffhauser. This oppression could be lifted if the German 
 Emperor could set before his people, who at that time were 
 not united either by common hopes or demands, a new goal 
 towards which to strive ; could Indicate to them * a place in 
 the sun ' to which they had a right, and to which they must 
 try to attain. On the other hand, patriotic feeling must not 
 be roused to such an extent as to damage Irreparably our rela- 
 tions with England, against whom our sea-power would for 
 years be insufficient, and at whose mercy we lay in 1897, ^s a 
 competent judge remarked at the time, like so much butter 
 before the knife." ^ 
 
 Was ever so naive a political confession made to 
 the world before? With a candour only equalled 
 by his boldness the ex-Chancellor of Germany ex- 
 poses the hidden springs of Prussian policy on the 
 very eve of the explosion which that policy was sure 
 
 ^Imperial Germany ^ p. 33. 
 
IMPERIAL GROWTH 89 
 
 to cause. It defies analysis, because it is itself a 
 masterly analysis of the German position — a dis- 
 united nation anxious and discouraged by the over- 
 throw of the old policy; a monarch compelled to 
 allay discontent and promote harmony by pointing 
 his people to distant places in the sun; to be gained 
 by the creation of a sentiment, the full extent and 
 purpose of which must for a while be studiously con- 
 cealed. 
 
 The new policy aimed at nothing less than a polit- 
 ical and ethical reconstruction of the world, an object 
 which now seems in the fair way of accomplishment, 
 if not precisely in consonance with the aims of its 
 authors. There were three stages in the new pol- 
 icy, each connoting war — the Prussianization of 
 Germany under the political ideas of the Hohenzol- 
 lerns; the Prussianization of Europe under the hege- 
 mony of Prussianized Germany; the Prussianization 
 of the world under the canons of Treitschke, Nietz- 
 sche, and Junkerdom. The great idea is thus set 
 forth: 
 
 " We have fought In our last great wars for our national 
 union and our position among the Powers of Europe ; we must 
 now decide whether we wish to develop into and maintain a 
 World-Empire, and procure for German spirit and German 
 ideas that fit recognition which has been hitherto withheld 
 from them." ^ 
 
 But Germany was not to be purely selfish in these 
 vast ambitions. Their realization was a duty not 
 only to herself, but to the whole world. Were she 
 to fail, the future of German nationality would be 
 sacrificed : an independent German civilization would 
 not exist; and the blessings for which German blood 
 has flowed in streams — spiritual and moral liberty, 
 
 2 Bernhardi's Germany and the Next War, p. 104. 
 
90 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 and the profound and healing aspirations of German 
 thought — would for long ages be lost to mankind ! 
 That was the view of the Mahdis of Germany 
 and their political and military dervishes. It was, 
 of course, hoped that each of these stages could be 
 reached separately. The Prussianization of Ger- 
 many, the creation of national unity, being impossible 
 as a result of internal political capacity, could be 
 achieved only by war. The first ideal war for that 
 purpose would be another conquest of France, as 
 being at once the easiest and the most certain way of 
 threatening, weakening, and, in time, overcoming 
 the hostile power of Great Britain, and of consoli- 
 dating Germany's political position. 
 
 *' In one way or another we must square our account with 
 France [the italics are his] if we wish for a free hand in our 
 international policy. This is the first and foremost con- 
 dition of a sound German policy, and . . . the matter must 
 be settled by force of arms. France must be so completely 
 crushed that she can never again come across our path." ^ 
 
 Though this was only the saying of one man, it 
 was repeated in a thousand forms in the works of 
 authors, professors, statesmen and teachers; in the 
 Press, the pulpit, and the beer-garden. This was the 
 preachment: "France out of the way, then Eng- 
 land. England is our foe. She has more of the 
 earth's surface than we have, more of the world's 
 trade than she, or any nation except Germany, ought 
 to have. She even robbed us of one-half of New 
 Guinea, though we tried for the whole; and we 
 should have had it, but that her insolent cub Aus- 
 tralia intervened. We must have what we never 
 have had, and what England has had for hundreds 
 of years — an Empire. She will not give it to us, 
 
 3 Bernhardi's Germany and the Next War, p. 105. 
 
THE SUBJECTION OF EUROPE 91 
 
 so we must take It. We must await ^ The Day ' ; 
 and with it will come our war of conquest, renewing 
 the glories of the times when we made Silesia, Po- 
 land, Hanover, Schlesv^^ig-Holstein, and Alsace-Lor- 
 raine our own. Ours is the cry of the old Crusaders, 
 Dahinf' 
 
 Such a victorious war, it might be assumed, would 
 complete the unification of Germany, and secure that 
 solid German confederation from the North Sea to 
 the Adriatic, which bounded Prince Bismarck's as- 
 pirations. The next step would follow naturally. 
 Germany's allies would be strengthened, as in Bos- 
 nia and Herzegovina; Turkey would be supported 
 and encouraged; while in a game of double-dealing, 
 Bulgaria would, at the same time, be incited and 
 encouraged to attack Turkey, weakening her while yet 
 Germany held her hand and crushed her and robbed 
 her; and the conviction would be instilled into Ger- 
 many's weaker neighbours that their independence 
 and interests were bound up with Germany, and 
 could only be secured under the protection of Ger- 
 man arms. From this conviction might eventually 
 come an enlargement of the Triple Alliance into a 
 Central European Federation, controlled at first by 
 Germany and then ruled by her and " God, and our 
 German sword," as the Kaiser has so modestly de- 
 clared. Switzerland, where German gold and Ger- 
 man influence has been doing service to this end for 
 many a day; Belgium, which has been ruled commer- 
 cially from Berlin; Holland, Bulgaria and Roumania, 
 where German Princes rule and German influences 
 have been supreme; Servia, in spite of herself; Den- 
 mark, and ultimately Greece, should become obedient 
 vassals to the Hohenzollern. 
 
 With France crushed, with Holland and Belgium 
 absorbed, with a Prussianized State extending from 
 
92 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 the Baltic to the Mediterranean and from the Eng- 
 lish Channel to the Sea of Marmora, Germany would 
 be prepared for the last great adventure. The 
 Slavs would be pushed back on the East and the old 
 Germanic provinces recovered. Great Britain would 
 disappear, as, indeed, would be a fitting end for the 
 bastard offspring of chance and duplicity, a thing 
 which was wholly a '' monstrous sham," for which 
 there could be no room in a world governed by 
 valour and '' swank "; by the Will to Power. Eng- 
 land would have to disgorge those possessions ob- 
 tained by blundering chance or by infamous theft. 
 
 For years Germans have called England the rob- 
 ber-State, have charged her with building up her 
 Empire by disregarding the rights of other nations, 
 with seizing the unoccupied lands of the earth 
 through and by the policy of " navalism." They ap- 
 pear to have forgotten the loathsome policy of Fred- 
 erick the Great, who suggested the infamous crime 
 of the first partition of Poland — a cancer in the side 
 of Europe ever since ; how in the twenty-three years' 
 war, beginning in 1792, Prussia sold herself out of 
 it for increased territory east of the Lower Rhine; 
 how, when the nations of Europe begged her to join 
 them to destroy the power of Napoleon, who aimed 
 at world-empire, and nearly achieved it, she agreed 
 to join them, but again sold her neutrality to the 
 Corsican for the kingdom of Hanover; how she 
 got Schleswig-Holstein by an indefensible invasion 
 based on a bamboozling pretext of disputed succes- 
 sion to the Duchy put forward by the German Con- 
 federation; how she tricked France into a war by 
 manipulating a telegram, by which she acquired Al- 
 sace-Lorraine. The very kingdom of Prussia itself 
 was got by the underhand acts of two electors of 
 Brandenburg, in 1525 and 161 8. 
 
HOW PRUSSIA ATTAINED HEGEMONY 93 
 
 Even more important In one sense than all these 
 was the attack made upon Austria in 1866 without 
 a declaration of war in a period of European peace, 
 when Austria declined to agree to the repudiation of 
 the Duke of Augustenburg as the rightful heir to the 
 Duchies of Schleswig and Holstein, after going to 
 war to support his fictitious claims, and to divide the 
 Duchies between them. Austria demanded the deci- 
 sion of the Confederation of the German States, 
 which pronounced Prussia as having grossly trans- 
 gressed against the Pubhc Law of Germany. This 
 was what Bismarck had planned, and it worked. 
 Out of Sadowa came the complete annexation of 
 Schleswig-Holstein, the mediatization of Hanover, 
 the annexation of Hesse-Cassel, Nassau, and Frank- 
 furt, with the power of Austria made impotent. 
 Out of it came also the open road to Paris, and the 
 new German Empire and its Hohenzollern Emperor. 
 A Hohenzollern had been offered the Imperial 
 Crown of a new German Empire after the Revolu- 
 tion of 1848, but had declined it, because Prussia 
 did not want union only: her object was control of 
 all the German States, and to accomplish that, suc- 
 cessful wars, adding to Prussian prestige; were neces- 
 sary. The prestige came in the triumphant wars 
 with Denmark, Austria, and France. Then the 
 Prussian became dominant by the glory of his arms, 
 and assumed the Imperial Crown. Bavaria, Wiir- 
 temberg. Saxony, accepted their inferior position, 
 for during three generations they had slowly been 
 divested of their ancient confidence and their sure 
 pride. Saxony's subservience began in that dark 
 day when Frederick the Great did with neutral Sax- 
 ony what William II has done with Belgium. He 
 was preparing to fight other enemies, and Saxony 
 lay in his path. He struck her down without offence 
 
94 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 on her part, and afterwards cold-bloodedly said that 
 he did it because she was not ready for war, and it 
 was to his advantage to bring her low. 
 
 Even the United States of America was not to 
 escape the German readjustment of the territorial 
 balances of the world. The isolated groups of Ger- 
 mans abroad, — 
 
 " Greatly benefit German trade, since by preference they 
 obtain their goods from Germany; but they may also be use- 
 ful to Germany politically, as has been found in America, 
 where the American-Germans have formed a political alliance 
 with the Irish, and thus united, constitute a power in the 
 State, with which the Government must reckon." * 
 
 After all this, it seems almost superfluous to be 
 told that the Portuguese colonies would be acquired 
 whenever some political or financial crash would give 
 an opportunity, and that Bolivia and Brazil would 
 one day be absorbed. 
 
 But what was to happen to the Empire thus gar- 
 nered from its present possessors, the execrated 
 Britons? They, since Heaven let them remain a 
 part of the earth, were to be civiHzed. These 
 " stolen," far-flung, and benighted lands were not 
 merely to be exploited, as at present, for a base com- 
 mercialism. The German conception was infinitely 
 higher than that. They were to be Prussianized. 
 From the point of view of civilization, it was impera- 
 tive to preserve the German spirit, and by so doing 
 to establish foci of universal Kiiltur. If the pan- 
 Germanic purpose was to be attained, it would be 
 necessary to Prussianize the whole world, both po- 
 litically and ethically. 
 
 That, in substance, was the creed contained in Ger- 
 
 4 Bernhardi's Germany and the Next War, p. 78, 
 
A PRUSSIAN WORLD 95 
 
 man books, newspapers, pamphlets, and the scripts 
 of lectures without number. The doctrine that 
 other nations must be ransacked, robbed, and ruined 
 because the German people lack creative political 
 genius is, however, held to be wanting in authority. 
 Even if German expansion were justified by the con- 
 tention that supreme political genius is vested in 
 Germany, and that therefore, in her JVeltpolitik she 
 is but the implement of the evolutionary doctrine of 
 the survival of the fittest, German pretensions would 
 still fail to commend themselves to the victims in 
 possession. They might even be so decadent as to 
 prefer and fight for their own inferior methods of 
 government, as they have done ; and they would cer- 
 tainly rebel openly against the unscientific theory that 
 those most incapable of governing themselves should 
 become the universal governors. These unregener- 
 ates would ask how, if German political capacity could 
 not preserve, by so-called dem.ocratic but actually 
 autocratic means, a European Empire from demoral- 
 ization, it could hope to aspire to maintain a united 
 World Empire inhabited by a real democracy. The 
 clear, hard Teutonic logic could provide only one 
 answer to that interrogation — the Teutonic World- 
 Empire might only be maintained by the elimination 
 of non-Teutonic ideals. 
 
 So long as there remained a single powerful State, 
 or a number of States, unprepared to sacrifice their 
 own position and power for the maintenance of Ger- 
 man unity, and unready to abandon their old political 
 moral ideas for the Kultiir of the Teuton, so long 
 would there be danger of German disruption. The 
 old fatal story of the Popes and the Hohenstaufen 
 might be repeated in that twentieth century which 
 Germany has claimed for her own. Indeed, as the 
 German professorial warrior, whose name is now so 
 
96 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 notorious, tells us, the execution of these schemes 
 would clash with many old-fashioned notions and 
 vested rights. In the first place it would be neces- 
 sary to disregard the principle of the balance of 
 power in Europe, following in this the doctrine of 
 Treitschke, that, " Such a system cannot be supported 
 with an approximate equilibrium among the nations." 
 But the great Teutonic world-scheme involved 
 more than this: 
 
 " We must put aside all such notions of equilibrium. . . . 
 It is not now a question of a European State system, but of 
 our embracing all the States of the world, in which the 
 equilibrium is established on real factors of power. We 
 must endeavour to obtain in this system our merited position 
 at the head of a federation of European States." ^ 
 
 Treitschke asked for a Germany as one nation 
 under a HohenzoUern; his buoyant disciple foresees 
 a world purified by Potsdam and organized by the 
 Balaams of Berlin. The last sentence of extract 
 verifies the statement made on a preceding page, 
 that the smaller States of Europe should become sat- 
 ellites of Germany. In William II, the apostles of 
 the new Idea found the very man for their purpose, 
 the autocrat and the fanatical worshipper of his 
 House and its history. The ruler who had threat- 
 ened the extermination by violence of political free- 
 dom of thought in his own countrymen would not 
 shrink from inculcating principles by fire and sword 
 on alien races. The Kaiser is indeed the Mo- 
 hammed of the modern world, imbued with the spirit 
 of the destroyers of the Alexandrian Library, whose 
 behef was that all it contained, " Is either in the 
 Koran or is unworthy of attention." Have we not 
 already been consoled for the ruined architecture of 
 
 ^Bernhardi's Germany and the Next War, p. no. 
 
THE NEW MOHAMMED 97 
 
 Louvain and Rhelms, and Lille, by the assurance 
 that German Kultiir can, with a Potsdam mason, re- 
 build finer temples than those it has destroyed? 
 
 So far as the comparison between the aims of Mo- 
 hammed and the Kaiser is inexact, the moral advan- 
 tage lies with the Arab, in that Germany has invented 
 her creed to sanctify her aggression. Without some 
 moral sanction the materialism of German ambitions 
 would be too naked, her policy too shameless. 
 
 Colonial expansion has been for many years 
 preached to the German people from two texts, the 
 one commercial and the other imperial. They, and 
 the world generally, are exhorted to observe the vast 
 industrial development of Germany, and are told 
 that her growing wealth and teeming population 
 must have outlets, must be given space for expan- 
 sion. The " open door " does not satisfy the Ger- 
 man demand for markets iand settling grounds. 
 *' We are," they say, " absolutely dependent on for- 
 eign nations for the import of raw materials, and to 
 a considerable extent also for the sale of our own 
 manufactures. . . . Then, again, we have not the 
 assured markets which England possesses in her Col- 
 onies." 
 
 It must be admitted that Germany has been frank 
 in regard to the necessity for colonial expansion, and 
 equally frank as to the means by which that expan- 
 sion might be secured. Treitschke and Bernhardi 
 have been greatly quoted, but there is a man of 
 greater eminence than Bernhardi, and of saner judg- 
 ment than Treitschke, who has written with great 
 authority upon this business. It is Professor Del- 
 briick. As far back as 1898 Professor Delbriick, 
 who succeeded Treitschke as editor of the Preus- 
 sicher Jahrbuch, in an article in that publication, 
 said : 
 
98 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 *' If, however, the world outside Europe were divided up 
 between one or two nations, as, for instance, English and 
 Russian, it would be impossible that those European races 
 which had no share in this should be able permanently to 
 maintain themselves against these gigantic Powers. That 
 is the reason why Germany must necessarily pursue a 
 Colonial policy on a great scale. Germany must attempt to 
 make up that which it has unfortunately delayed to do during 
 the last centuries. It must create large districts outside 
 Europe in which German nationality, German speech and 
 German intellectual life have the possibility of future devel- 
 opment." 
 
 That Bismarck was not a friend of this ambitious 
 programme of colonial expansion the Herr Profes- 
 sor admits: 
 
 '' It is true that Prince Bismarck would not hear anything 
 of this policy ; he saw the future conflicts into which it would 
 lead us. All the greater is the merit of the present Govern- 
 ment. A great nation must have great aims before it. . . . 
 But the Government would in no way have been the true 
 inheritor of the Bismarck spirit which could not trust itself 
 to go beyond that which he had said and done. By progress 
 alone can power be maintained." 
 
 How was this colonial expansion to be achieved? 
 Either by absorbing territory not yet annexed by 
 other nations, or by taking from other nations what 
 they already possessed. The former scheme was 
 carried out in the absorption of territory in West 
 Africa, In Southwest Africa and In East Africa; 
 not very valuable, not very capable of giving large 
 markets for German goods or for securing many 
 purchases for German goods, but making a start. 
 It was a slow business. As for the other branch of 
 the policy, It could be accomplished in two ways: 
 first by securing commercial domination In territories 
 
COLONIAL EXPANSION 99 
 
 belonging to other nations, which would ultimately 
 lead to political domination; and this in turn would 
 ultimately lead to sovereignty. There was South 
 America. It was held by a series of weak govern- 
 ments ; it gave every promise of proving a fertile field 
 for German expansion. But that adventure proved 
 a failure also. The Venezuela difficulty emerged 
 bristling with the bayonets of the Monroe doctrine. 
 The United States would have none of it. Germany 
 had already entered, however, into spheres of Brit- 
 ish and American influence in New Guinea and in 
 Samoa, and there she succeeded. In Samoa, from 
 commercial she advanced to political domination, 
 and Anally to sovereignty. Being turned away from 
 South America, and sure but slow development in 
 Africa, the Kaiser's eyes became firmly fixed upon 
 the British Empire, and it was resolved that in good 
 time when the Naval Bill of 1900 had brought forth 
 its fruits, that Great Britain should be relieved of 
 a share of her White Man's Burden. 
 
 But as France, in 1900, had not been won to desert 
 Russia, and the Triple Entente was an immovable 
 feast of friendship for defence, she must be stripped 
 of her colonial possessions and gathered into the 
 German garner before the British harvest was 
 reaped. Professor Delbriick's ambitions were in 
 keeping with the spirit of his Imperial Master, and 
 were fully sustained by those subsequent events which 
 have culminated in this war, for he says : 
 
 " It Is quite unnecessary to explain that this conception of 
 the duties of our foreign policy requires the highest develop- 
 ment of our military and naval power which can possibly be 
 attained. The increase In our prosperity permits us to direct 
 our gaze on the very greatest, and the future of the nation 
 imperatively demands that there should be no parsimony, and 
 that we should shrink from no sacrifices." 
 
loo THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 It does not seem unwarrantable to ask what was 
 the need of a vast naval and military force for co- 
 lonial expansion if the colonial expansion was to be 
 peaceful? Here is the true gospel according to 
 Herr Delbriick: 
 
 " There Is no higher task to put before the coming genera- 
 tion than to see that the world Is not divided between English 
 and Russians. . . . Without war If It Is possible, but It Is 
 something which would not be bought too dear by the expense 
 of ever so much blood." 
 
 This is a gospel of licence, loot, and land-lust, lack- 
 ing in none of the elements which have been exhibited 
 by Germany in the present terrific conflict forced 
 upon the world by her. One of Berlin's renowned 
 apostles speaks of the '' return of the days of the 
 Hanseatic League," and calls attention to the fact 
 that Germany once possessed a great oversea trade 
 and that she lost it. If she failed to found a Colo- 
 nial Empire, if she was outstripped by Holland, 
 Spain, and England, she has herself to blame. She 
 had in her grasp an Empire which gave her harbours 
 in every European sea, but it slipped from her fingers 
 for lack of ability to retain it. 
 
 The naked policy, then, is this, that Germany 
 should redress the wrong done her by Nature in deny- 
 ing her the highest political capacity, by ravaging 
 other nations to deprive them of their possessions — 
 first France, then England, and after that the still 
 wider swathe. We must go back into history to find 
 so naked, so rapacious and so cynical a doctrine. 
 Colonies have often changed hands as the result of 
 wars, but the cases are few where their possession 
 was the cause or the justification of wars. The Brit- 
 ish navy itself had its real birth in the defensive 
 measures against the Spanish Invasion; and that it 
 
THE MISSION OF THE FLEET loi 
 
 has created a World-Empire is almost an accidental 
 result, due largely to England's natural position as an 
 island; to the amazing enterprise and spirit of ad- 
 venture in her people; to her limited field of raw 
 materials; and to her industrial and economic policy 
 which compelled her to seek both raw material and 
 food overseas. 
 
 Despite the overtures made to France by Germany 
 at the beginning of this century, it has always been 
 intolerable to the German militarists and political 
 philosophers that the Empire, stricken to the dust by 
 Germany in 1870, should still be a Great Power, 
 owing largely, in German eyes, to the possession of 
 colonies in Africa and Indo-China. Yet what had 
 Germany been doing over these hundreds of years? 
 The present German Empire is new — garishly new, 
 but Germany is old, and is not without a long list of 
 sins of omission and commission, as the history of the 
 Thirty Years' War, the Seven Years' War, the 
 Twenty Years' War, and many another shows. 
 
 All that is not our affair, nor, indeed, need the 
 proposition have been seriously discussed except to 
 show how the Teutonic mind has been tuned to ac- 
 company the aggressive designs of the Kaiser and the 
 group by which he is and has been surrounded. You 
 must, said this camarilla to the German taxpayer, 
 continue to increase your fleet so that you may find 
 new openings for your trade and new German homes 
 for your children overseas. You must found a Co- 
 lonial Empire, not alone for these comparatively sor- 
 did reasons but for the honour of your race. See 
 how decadent freebooting England dominates the 
 Seven Seas; observe how the tricolour which you 
 trampled underfoot less than half a century ago 
 waves over fertile dominions. Even Holland pos- 
 sesses finer colonies than Germany. Side by side 
 
102 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 with your navy you must maintain a vast army, for 
 it is only by destroying the political equilibrium of 
 Europe that you can hope to make of your navy a 
 weapon to overturn the political equilibrium of the 
 world. You are strong and brave; you excel in all 
 that goes to the making of Empires except in your 
 capacity to hold what you have won; therefore, make 
 sacrifices now, that you may be able to destroy all 
 the forces which might put your political incapacity 
 to the test. 
 
 So the German Empire began to put this creed 
 into practice on the ist of August, 19 14: having first 
 employed myriad spies in every European country, 
 and in England and France in particular, for years; 
 having lured Turkey into tutelage ; having used Bul- 
 garia for her purposes against her seduced victim; 
 having impelled only-too-willing Austria to oppress 
 the Serbians and hound Serbia into acts of aggression 
 and subterranean opposition; having openly invoked 
 and besought the friendship of the United States and 
 secretly sought to undermine the policy ^ on which 
 her position on the Continent of America rests se- 
 cure; having made of her own Empire an arsenal, 
 and war-slaves of her children. Meanwhile their 
 Kaiser played the part of the enchanted guest to the 
 undoing of his credulous host in nearly every capital 
 of Europe ; and most of all in England. It was mag- 
 nificent in its organization, ruinous in its purposes, 
 and detestable in its debasement of a great people. 
 
 Baron Mumm, the German Under-Secretary for 
 the Colonies, and Herr Dernburg, ex-Colonial Sec- 
 retary, have said that England went into this war 
 for commercial purposes. If comment on such a 
 charge is necessary at all, it may be said that if Eng- 
 
 ^ The Monroe Doctrine. 
 
WHY SHOULD ENGLAND FIGHT? 103 
 
 land went into this war for business reasons it would 
 be spending a tremendous lot of money for a limited 
 return. Does any reasonable person believe that 
 Great Britain would spend her hundreds of millions 
 of pounds on the chance of conquering the trade and 
 colonial possessions of Germany? It was not as 
 though British commerce was in desperate case. Be- 
 tween 1903 and 19 13 our imports had grown by 
 220 millions, our exports by 270 millions; our export 
 of manufactured goods had risen by 151 millions. 
 True, there were signs that the tide was on the turn, 
 but the inevitable ebb would reach all countries alike ; 
 it was not to be stemmed by war. There was some 
 jealousy, some envy, of Germany's commercial prog- 
 ress; but, when England was bidden to " wake up," 
 it was not to the furbishing of swords but to greater 
 activity in factory and markets. If Germany was a 
 formidable rival, she was likewise a good customer; 
 would it be common sense to destroy the certain cus- 
 tomer in the uncertain hope of getting rid of a rival? 
 The colonial possessions of Germany would be no 
 rich booty; they would bring nothing worth while to 
 Great Britain in our generation. Developing new 
 territory is expensive; besides, the Party now in 
 power in England has always been the foe of further 
 colonial development and expansion of territory. 
 Great Britain refused Hawaii fifty years ago; she 
 refused Samoa in the Eighties. She has more than 
 enough territory to control and consolidate, and the 
 German colonial possessions would not and will not 
 increase her trade appreciably. Is a reduction of 
 value on securities of all kinds throughout the world, 
 is a crippled and oppressive condition of exchange, 
 are closed or restricted Stock markets, is the tem- 
 porary but enormous loss of an immense discount 
 business, profitable to Great Britain? Is there a sin- 
 
104 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 gle man In financial England who does not regard 
 the war as a commercial calamity from which British 
 people alive to-day, in common with the rest of the 
 world, will never wholly recover? If England had 
 been other than peace-loving she might well have 
 gone to war during the last fifteen years to secure her 
 navy — the Insurance of her trade and commerce — 
 from peril of the German navy. That would have 
 been a reasonable pretext for or cause of war; but 
 Great Britain's mercantile marine was many times 
 larger than that of Germany, and apart from all 
 other reasons, there was no selfish need for this 
 crime against the world and against Germany. 
 England Is not yet so foolish, even were the inten- 
 tion possible, as to enter upon a vast and bloody 
 struggle to destroy the trade belonging to three mil- 
 lion tons of German shipping which Germany could 
 replace again after the war. It is not to be supposed 
 that Germany will not be a commercial competitor 
 when the present war Is over, if she is beaten. 
 Whatever may happen to her armaments her trade 
 will revive and advance. Her people will work and 
 thrive ; and It Is for the good of the world that they 
 should thrive, if they will but divest themselves of 
 ambitions for Increase of power and territory by war 
 and at the expense of other nations and settled and 
 accepted conditions. 
 
CHAPTER V 
 
 GERMAN COLONIAL POLICY, THE UNITED STATES, 
 AND THE MONROE DOCTRINE 
 
 German ambitions for colonial Empire, however, 
 and her anger at any check to her purposes have 
 been an open book to all who, from their positions 
 official, semi-official, or political, have been brought 
 vis-a-vis of German interests now adventuring here, 
 now there, in the quest for oversea territory. In 
 1893 th^ present writer was told by Seiior Mariscal, 
 Minister of Foreign Affairs in Mexico, that German 
 designs in South America would become a grave in- 
 ternational matter, and that the United States would 
 be forced to emphasize the reality of the Monroe 
 Doctrine before many years passed. As events 
 proved Senor Mariscal was right. In the year 
 1 90 1, at Aiken, in South Carolina, the late W. C. 
 Whitney, former Secretary of the Navy in the Cleve- 
 land Administration, said to the author of this book: 
 
 "You think that Germany has designs on the British po- 
 sition, that she wants and will strike for Great Britain's 
 Colonies as soon as she has a navy? Do not fash yourselves, 
 as the Scotch say. We will be taking Germany on before 
 that time comes. Little as we shall like it, we will have to 
 do your work for you. She isn't cured yet of her designs on 
 South America. She will try it on and try It on, and she 
 will try it on once too often. She wants to challenge the 
 Monroe Doctrine, and she will do It If she thinks she can do 
 it safely, If she thinks the United States will not fight. You 
 saw what happened at Manila. There the British played 
 up in style. Dewey had more than moral support from you 
 there. Well, I tell you that when I was Secretary of the 
 Navy under Cleveland, I saw that Germany meant to grab 
 
 105 
 
io6 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 Brazil and Bolivia and Venezuela, and any other portion of 
 South America which was too weak to resist her — if we let 
 her. I made up my mind that my country would not let her 
 slice off one little chunk from the Monroe Doctrine. You 
 did not notice any decline of the American Navy under my 
 administration, did you ? No. Well, Germany made me 
 work harder than I ever did in my life. Don't worry. We 
 will have to do your work for you." 
 
 Similar views have been held and stated by other 
 Americans, and the present war has spread the con- 
 viction that the United States cannot contemplate 
 with a sense of security the possible, if not probable, 
 rise of a victorious and world-dominating Germany. 
 Four years ago the late Admiral Mahan, writing 
 of British naval supremacy and German pretensions 
 of naval rivalry, spoke of the necessity, — 
 
 " For all peoples, who recognize the importance to them- 
 selves of equality or opportunity in the world markets, to con- 
 sider with what attitude of mind, what comprehension of con- 
 ditions, and what measure of force, they will approach the 
 inevitable developments of the future. . . ." 
 
 '\ . , The nations of the world have to regard the two 
 facts: (i) a general rivalry in the regions named (Europe, 
 Africa, and Asia), complicated in South America by the Mon- 
 roe Doctrine; and (2) a German navy soon to be superior to 
 every other, except the British. Should the latter retain its 
 full present predominance, this coupled with the situation of 
 the British Islands, constitutes a check upon Germany; but 
 that check removed, none approaching it remains. It follows 
 that the condition and strength of Great Britain is a matter 
 of national interest to every other community." ^ 
 
 In August, 1 9 14, shortly before he died, the great 
 naval strategist reaffirmed his conviction more spe- 
 cifically : 
 
 " If Germany succeeds in downing both France and Russia, 
 
 ^ A. T. Mahan, The Interest of America in International Condi- 
 tions, p. 77. London, 1910. 
 
ADMIRAL MAHAN'S WARNING 107 
 
 she gains a respite by land, which may enable her to build up 
 her sea-force until it is equal or superior to that of Great 
 Britain. In that case the world will be confronted by the 
 naval power of a State not, like Great Britain, sated with 
 territory, but one eager and ambitious for expansion, and 
 eager also for influence. This consideration may well affect 
 American sympathies." ^ 
 
 Another American authority has expressed the 
 same opinion, adding a tribute to Great Britain's 
 naval power: 
 
 " If it shall develop," it says, " that the Germans drive the 
 English from the seas, incredible as it may seem, then this 
 country will have a veritable and formidable foe with which 
 we may cope for the protection of our Monroe Doctrine only 
 by vast expenditures for naval defence, or forfeit our right 
 and power of enforcement of that instrument, to which, it 
 is proper to remark, the Germans have never subscribed. 
 With the German necessity of expansion there will be, with- 
 out much formality, a descent upon Central American and 
 South American domains as an outlet of the excess Teutonic 
 population. With the loss of the English Fleet the power of 
 that country to control the seas will deprive us of our 
 principal ally in the maintenance of the Monroe Doctrine, 
 which has been honoured by Europeans largely, if not entirely, 
 because of the English naval fighting strength." ^ 
 
 Are these views justified? Would German vic- 
 tory over the Allies threaten the peace or prosperity 
 of the United States? It should be interesting, and 
 perhaps it may be sui*prising, to some Americans to 
 learn from the mouths of Germans, not so adroit and 
 careful as Professor Miinsterburg for instance, opin- 
 ions which throw light on this far from academic 
 subject. 
 
 " Weltmacht oder Niedergang! (World-power or 
 
 2 Ihid., p. 75. 
 
 3 The Army and Navy Register, quoted in London Daily Tele- 
 graph, August 22nd, 19 14. 
 
io8 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 Downfall!) will be our rallying cry,"' cries General 
 Bernhardi stridently in his book Germany and the 
 Next War, It is an old, old cry, of which we 
 thought the w^orld would hear no more ; or, if it came, 
 then from some Oriental Empire born again and 
 moving ruthlessly upon the Occident. This dream 
 of world-dominion has come to other States and Em- 
 pires; sometimes for momentary good and sometimes 
 for ill, but always with misery and destruction in its 
 wake. Babylon, Persia, Greece, Rome, Spain, and 
 France — and now Germany. Each time it has 
 come all the nations of the world have had to brace 
 themselves for the shock. Some went under, and 
 some survived; but none emerged unscathed. In 
 modern times, nations determined to preserve their 
 independence and freedom from one man's tyranny 
 have united to break the power that threatened to 
 enslave the earth. So it was that Charles V, Philip 
 II, Louis XIV, and Napoleon, each in his bloody 
 day, was checked on his course of conquest by a Eu- 
 rope determined to be free. The plans and hopes 
 of Imperial Germany to-day affect the future of 
 every nation everywhere. The world is in the melt- 
 ing-pot again, old foundations shake, new structures 
 are in the making. 
 
 " Our world has passed away 
 In wantonness o'erthrown. 
 There is nothing left to-day 
 But steel and fire and stone ! " 
 
 The sabre-slashing General Bernhardi learned the 
 application of the World-Power-or-Downfall for- 
 mula from his teacher, the historian Treitschke, 
 and he, in his turn, is supported by the presnt 
 Kaiser. 
 
 " When the German flag flies over and protects this vast 
 Empire, to whom will belong the sceptre of the universe ? " 
 
" THE SCEPTRE OF THE UNIVERSE " 109 
 
 the burning rhapsodist Treltschke asks at the top of 
 his voice in one of his books, and he does not ask in 
 vain. MiUions have bravely tried to answer on the 
 battle-fields of Belgium, France, Poland, and Silesia. 
 
 With such a spirit animating his loyal subjects, the 
 Kaiser was speaking to the card in his proclamation 
 a few years ago to the effect that, " Nothing must be 
 settled in this world without the intervention of Ger- 
 many and of the German Emperor." * 
 
 The general outlines of Germany's world policy 
 are such as to warrant apprehension, by all other peo- 
 ples, controlled by whatever conditions of neutrality 
 and isolation in the present. To produce particular 
 and specific expressions of German intentions which 
 threaten the peace and prosperity of the United 
 States seems almost unnecessary; even if none were 
 to be found, they could be logically assumed. 
 When an Empire proposes and plans to conquer the 
 world, it cannot make exceptions ; it must remove all 
 obstructions as it marches on; and no nation in the 
 world may hypnotize itself into an imaginary exemp- 
 tion. In this case, however, tangible testimony does 
 exist of the intentions of Germany respecting the 
 United States; intentions which are menacing. To 
 appreciate them rightly, however — since to many 
 they will seem as inexplicable as they are unjustified 
 — German traditions and German principles must be 
 considered. 
 
 Materialism has produced in the German what to 
 men of other traditions seems an utterly cynical point 
 of view. Bismarck had this cynical doctrine deeply 
 rooted in him. " Every government," he said, 
 " takes solely its own interest as the standard of its 
 actions, however it may drape them with deductions 
 
 '* Reich, Germany's Madness, p. 51, New York, 19 14. 
 
no THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 of justice or sentiment." ^ While we can admire the 
 sardonic and defiant frankness of such utterances, 
 we must at the same time keep them clearly in mind 
 when attempting to interpret German dealings with 
 other nations — nations like Belgium, for instance. 
 A State which holds such views is naturally quick to 
 suspect those whom she morbidly regards as rivals. 
 
 For those who profess other aims and ideals than 
 her own, German scorn knew no bounds. This is 
 perhaps nowhere better demonstrated than by the 
 contempt with which Bernhardi treats the efforts of 
 the United States towards international peace. 
 " We can hardly assume," he says, " that a real love 
 of peace prompts these efforts." ^ The German 
 mind cannot even credit the United States, in its 
 happy isolation, with altruism and humanity. The 
 maintenance of peace as a national policy is to their 
 minds incredible: 
 
 " Pacific ideals, to be sure, are seldom the real motive of 
 their action. They usually employ the need of peace as a 
 cloak under which to promote their own political aims. This 
 was the real position of affairs at the Hague Congresses, and 
 this is also the meaning of the action of the United States of 
 America, who, in recent times, have earnestly tried to con- 
 clude treaties for the establishment of Arbitration Courts, first 
 and foremost with England, but also with Japan, France, and 
 Germany." '' 
 
 These are Bernhardi's views, and he is evidently 
 convinced that each government was trying to outwit 
 the other. For those who imagined otherwise there 
 is a sneer: 
 
 " Theorists and fanatics imagine that they see in the efforts 
 
 ^Bismarck's Reflections and Reminiscences, English translation, 
 1899, p. 173. 
 6 Bernhardi's Germany and the Next War, p. 17. 
 "^ Ibid, p. 17. 
 
NATIONAL ISOLATION iii 
 
 of President Taft a great step forward on the path of per- 
 petual peace, and enthusiastically agree with him. Even the 
 Minister for Foreign Affairs in England, with well-affected 
 idealism, termed the procedure of the United States an era in 
 the history of mankind." ^ 
 
 Nietzsche with equal ignorance said: 
 
 " There is an Indian savagery, a savagery peculiar to the 
 Indian blood, in the manner in which the Americans strive 
 after gold." ^ 
 
 A more sorrowful result of the doctrine of the 
 German militarists than their scorn of other nations 
 is their feeling of national isolation/^ their constant 
 apprehension of hostile designs upon them by other 
 countries. They are poignantly conscious of being 
 thought the political parvenus of Europe, and they 
 believe that the world views them superciliously. 
 
 Of the many things irking German spirit during 
 past years none has been accepted with less grace 
 than the existence of certain superior advantages, 
 real or fancied, possessed by other nations. It has 
 been said that the Germans, more than most peoples, 
 should heed the injunction of the Tenth Command- 
 ment. Prince Biilow bears witness to '^ our old vice, 
 envy " ; and he quotes the comment of Tacitus upon 
 
 8 Ibid. 
 
 9 Nietzsche, The Joyful Wisdom, English edition, 1910, p. 254. 
 
 10 Dr. J. W. Headlam in his recent pamphlet, England, Ger- 
 many and Europe, says: "This isolation of Gerrpany is generally 
 attributed by German writers to the genius and foresight of 
 Edward VII. For the last twenty years the policy of Germany has 
 indeed displayed every fault. In a position where restraint, dig- 
 nity, caution, reserve seemed to be dictated, they have been ad- 
 venturous, unstable, quarrelsome, interfering. In no part of the 
 world could a treaty be made or arrangements discussed but the 
 voice of Germany was heard declaring that no arrangement could 
 be made without her being consulted. . . . The result inevitably 
 was to alienate and alarm each nation in turn, and thereby to 
 create the understandings by which each nation knew that it could 
 reckon on the support of others." 
 
112 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 the ancestors of his race: '^ Propter invidiam the 
 Germans destroyed their liberators, the Cherusci." ^^ 
 The Germans themselves admit that they have 
 looked with envy and covetousness upon certain rights 
 and possessions of their neighbours. The wide 
 realms and exclusive commercial areas of Russia, of 
 the British Dominions, and of the United States, 
 have appeared to them as imminent dangers to Ger- 
 man prosperity. Particularly is this true concerning 
 the United States and her relations with Central and 
 South America, as embodied in that (to German 
 minds) obsolete and ineffective instruments, the Mon- 
 roe Doctrine. To Berlin Militarists the Monroe 
 Doctrine is only the mere shadow of a scrap of 
 paper; and the American claims based on it are of- 
 fensive to the German mind. 
 
 *' The enemy, the superior opponent In the eco- 
 nomic rivalry of the nations is North America,'' 
 wrote Professor Wolff, of Breslau University.^^ It 
 must be remembered that in the German mind, the 
 war of commerce and the war of arms are not to be 
 distinguished. Bismarck said, with his great gift for 
 phrase-making, unsurpassed by any modern, " War 
 is business, and business is war." The same terms 
 are used in describing each, and the actual transition 
 from the one to the other is merely a matter of ex- 
 pediency. To destroy by system and organization, 
 to overpower by force and weight, to be ruthless in so 
 doing, is common to Germany's war methods and 
 business methods. The protective tariff of the 
 United States is no less exasperating to Germany 
 than would be a naval blockade of her ports. This 
 feeling is by no means confined to the Chauvinist 
 and military class. Even the talented Socialist, 
 
 11 Von Billow, Imperial Germany, p. 224. 
 
 ^2 Wolff, Das dputsche Reich und das Weltmarket, 1901, 
 
THE UNITED STATES IS DANGEROUS 113 
 
 Richard Calwer, believes that, '' Germany occupies 
 no pleasant position in the world," and that, among 
 other perils — 
 
 " There is the North American Union, which not only re- 
 gards South America as its domain, but because of natural, 
 technical, and economic reasons, is in many respects dangerous 
 to us." 1^ 
 
 For another State to be " superior " in any way 
 is, to minds steeped in the Prussian doctrine of might 
 and power, to make them " dangerous." This ob- 
 session of the intimate connection between commerce 
 and war is oddly exemplified in the rhetorical lan- 
 guage of another German writer, who is warning 
 Holland that Great Britain and the United States 
 are only waiting their opportunity to seize her col- 
 onies : 
 
 " Spain has sunk to her knees before the brutal onslaught 
 of America, and Portugal hangs like a fly in the spider's web, 
 mercilessly abandoned to the monopolistic Stock Exchange 
 system of England." ^* 
 
 For the most part, however, German hostility to 
 the United States is not based on anything so specific, 
 German writers present no convincing proofs of ac- 
 tual American aggressiveness. To them this is not 
 necessary; rivalry in any form Is hostility, and supe- 
 riority is a menace. Assertion of supreme authority 
 is a challenge; hence the abhorrence of the Monroe 
 Doctrine for itself, apart from the fact that it has 
 blocked the way to German dominion in South Amer- 
 ica. The claim of the United States to political 
 supervision of the destinies of the South American 
 
 ^^ Quoted from Sozialistiche Monatshefte in Dawson's The E<vo- 
 lution of Modern Germany, p. 341. 
 1* From German Ambitions, by Vigilans sed .^quus. 
 
114 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 Republics IS, to the German mind, an open act of 
 aggression. It is, indeed, a matter of history that 
 Germany has never recognized the validity of the 
 Monroe Doctrine. She has submitted to its de- 
 mands, but with ill grace. It has interfered with her 
 plans of colonization. It forced her to look east- 
 ward from Brazil to the less alluring spaces of Af- 
 rica, where the lands suited to white populations 
 were already extensively occupied and the best ab- 
 sorbed. 
 
 It was only after the Monroe Doctrine — sup- 
 ported by the combined diplomatic and naval forces 
 of Great Britain and the United States — had inter- 
 fered with German armed pourparlers in Venezuela 
 that the Kaiser fixed his attention elsewhere. Africa 
 could not satisfy his hopes of a Colonial Empire ; it 
 could not provide for large German populations; 
 and for a long time it could not pay. He turned to 
 the East — to China, and thereafter much ma- 
 noeuvring and some set-backs which need not be dis- 
 cussed here, the happy accident of the murder of 
 German missionaries gave him the opportunity he 
 needed, and Kiao Chou, which cost him £25,000,- 
 000 to develop, gave his country a base of impor- 
 tance in Asia. With its surrender the Kaiser's dream 
 ends, for his day at least. In Morocco he was also 
 unfortunate, but his misfortune cost him no cash, as 
 he acquired no territory; and then came his adven- 
 tures in Asia Minor and Persia and the consequent 
 necessary interference in the affairs of the Balkans. 
 The harvest of these later ventures is now being 
 reaped on the battlefields of Europe. 
 
 It may easily be claimed, therefore, that by justly 
 denying to Germany the right to interfere in the 
 affairs of South America, the United States has a 
 share in the many antecedent causes of the war. 
 
BRAZIL AND BOLIVIA 115 
 
 However that may be, It is certain that the first di- 
 rection of Germany's colonial ambitions was, by 
 preference, towards South America. Though tem- 
 porarily checked. It Is certain that these ambitions 
 have not been relinquished: 
 
 " In more than one respect South America is the land of 
 the future; there is more to be got in South America than 
 there is in Africa," 
 
 writes Herr Schmoller, in a book with the signifi- 
 cantly Germanic title of Policy of Commerce and 
 Force, 
 
 " We must at all costs desire that in Southern Brazil, a 
 land of twenty to thirty million Germans may come into 
 being — no matter whether it remains part of Brazil, or forms 
 an independent State, or comes into closer relations with our 
 Empire." 
 
 Thereupon Herr Schmoller feelingly quotes from 
 statistics to show the growing preponderance of Ger- 
 mans In Brazil, and refers to the statement of the 
 Handelsmuseum that — - 
 
 *' Little by little, slowly and surely, Germany is securing 
 the trade of Bolivia. When she has done that entirely, she 
 will have secured the plenitude of influence, a complete moral 
 and material supremacy, and a colony acquired without war 
 or expense." ^^ 
 
 In an article in the Fortnightly Review for Janu- 
 ary, 19 1 5, a writer who signs himself " Fabrlclus," 
 from internal evidence ^' a man of mark in his day," 
 gives several pages of extracts from a book by Emil 
 Witte, at one time an attache to the German Embassy 
 in Washington. Mr. Witte's sensational book was 
 published in Leipzig in 1907, and it throws light 
 upon German-American relations and German offi- 
 
 15 Schmoller, quoted by Emil Reich in Germany's Madness, p. 56. 
 
ii6 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 clal purposes. Herr Witte declares that, after the 
 difficulty in Manila between Germany and the United 
 States, the German Government encouraged the 
 formation of German veteran societies throughout 
 the United States which, by close inter-connection, 
 could become an organization of great power. He 
 says that on the 6th of October, 1901, Germanism 
 in the United States was organized in Philadelphia 
 and Pennsylvania. 
 
 It were better to use Mr. Witte's own words in 
 order to convey exactly what the meaning and pur- 
 pose of the organization of Germanism in the United 
 States was: 
 
 " On that date the ' Deutsch-Amerikanische Nationalbund 
 der Vereinigten Staaten von Amerika ' was founded. Ac- 
 cording to its constitution, it endeavours to awaken among the 
 American population of German descent a feeling of unity, to 
 organize it for the purpose of energetically protecting the 
 common interests of Germanism, etc. 
 
 " It should be of interest to consider the activity of the 
 German' Bund. It agitated energetically with the object of 
 inducing the Government of the United States to intervene 
 in the war between England and the Boers. In support of 
 this agitation it handed to Congress a petition which weighed 
 more than four hundred pounds, and which was more than 
 five miles long. 
 
 " An organization, similar in character and scope to that 
 representing all German-Americans, is the ' Centralverband 
 deutscher Veteranen und Kriegerbunde Nord-Amerikas * — 
 the Central Society of German Veterans and Soldier Societies 
 of North America. The principles and aims of that society 
 are similar to that of the parent society. . . . 
 
 '* Without doubting for a moment the often-asserted loy- 
 alty to the United States expressed by the members of the 
 German Soldiers' Societies in the United States, and without 
 dwelling on the reasons why they have been officially dis- 
 tinguished by the German Government by sending them flags, 
 decorations, gracious letters, etc., it must be frankly stated 
 
''THE HYPHENATED AMERICAN" 117 
 
 that the relations between official Germany and the emigrant 
 subjects of the Emperor, whether they have become citizens 
 of the Republic or not, may lead to serious complications be- 
 tween Germany and the United States, and to unforeseen inci- 
 dents which at any moment may involve both Powers in 
 serious difficulty. , . ." 
 
 This IS a very remarkable statement, but it comes 
 from a former official of the German Government, 
 and it is supported by events which have happened 
 since the beginning of the war. It should also be 
 read in connection with the fact that in 19 13 Ger- 
 many passed a law preserving for a German his na- 
 tionality even when he has become naturalized in 
 another country. That was a very careful piece of 
 legislation which had more than native German sen- 
 timent behind it. The German Press Bureau in the 
 United States has at its command an immense organ- 
 ization representing millions of Germans in the coun- 
 try, and those organizations have been used, as is 
 well known, for the purpose of bringing pressure to 
 bear upon the United States Government in a great 
 number of directions — in attempting to promote 
 legislation which would hamper Great Britain in 
 securing ammunition and supplies from the United 
 States; in regard to contraband; in relation to the 
 purchase of the German ships interned in American 
 ports; and in squeezing the President into a prefer- 
 ential attitude towards Germany by a threat to use 
 the elections for that purpose. 
 
 This threat has been denied by those interested 
 in lulling the suspicions of non-Germans in the 
 United States in regard to conspiracy or " undue 
 influence," but that the German-American has sought 
 lately to punish the President and his party for sup- 
 posed leanings to the Allies is well known and has 
 been widely discussed. The following letter which 
 
ii8 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 appeared in the North American Review for Janu- 
 ary, 19 14, is evidence of a substantial character: 
 
 '' Sir, — So far as I am informed you are mistaken in your 
 speculations about the last election. Among the German- 
 American voters the word was passed around from North to 
 South, and from West to East, to vote against the Democratic 
 ticket in order to protest against the obviously one-sided atti- 
 tude the administration is taking in the present European 
 conflict. I was one of the many who followed this advice, 
 and I can name at least twenty other men who voted the 
 same way. Some of us thought that Mr. Gerard might be a 
 very desirable addition to the Senate, where we hoped he 
 might be influential in bringing about a real neutrality and a 
 greater impartiality in our foreign affairs. I am sure that 
 you will have to reckon with us when you begin to explain 
 why Mr. Gerard ' ran 70,000 ahead of the State ticket.' 
 
 "A. BussE, Ph.D., 
 " New York City." " Professor in Hunter College." 
 
 The United States has to decide for itself whether 
 it welcomes an organized foreign settlement in the 
 United States for a purely political object, which is 
 intended to be for the advantage of the mother- 
 country of emigrant Germans. It is to be noted 
 that no such organizations exist among British men 
 in any country to which they have gone, and certainly 
 not to any degree or in any sense in the United States. 
 
 It is worth observing also that in the view of Ger- 
 many, the West Indies is also very attractively situ- 
 ated for its purposes. A professor at Strassburg 
 University has given them his careful consideration, 
 and reports as follows : 
 
 ".It would give a powerful impulse to our trade and 
 shipping if we had a port of our own in the West Indies, with 
 trade-emporium and coaling station. Such an acquisition is 
 not impossible, as the Danish islands of Sainte Croix, St. 
 Thomas, and St. John have, in a sense, been in the market." 
 
GERMANY AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA 119 
 
 This was written at the time of the Spanish- Amer- 
 ican War, and the moment seemed very opportune 
 to Professor Waltershausen, of Strassburg.^^ 
 
 " Should German diplomacy at Copenhagen prove able to 
 overcome the anti-German resistance of the Danes, now 
 (1898) is the time for us to acquire the islands. The United 
 States are involved with Spain, and have no money to spare." 
 
 Three years later another German writer, Herr 
 Dix, called attention to what seemed to him a splen- 
 did chance of being " excessively disagreeable " to 
 the United States, by the purchase of the island of 
 St. Thomas from Denmark, noting its great advan- 
 tages to a " World-Power " which had an interest 
 *' in the future Isthmian Canal." It was his opinion 
 that previous negotiations had fallen through, mainly 
 because the United States reckoned on getting the 
 Danish inheritance some fine day without paying for 
 it.^^ In 19 1 2 it seemed as though the chance had 
 come for Germany to achieve the aspirations of Herr 
 Dix; for in May of that year the King of Denmark 
 actually signed a concession to the harbour of St. 
 Thomas to Germany. It is true that as the result 
 of a powerful agitation, the concession was rescinded; 
 but the incident is clear evidence of Germany's am- 
 bitious purposes in the Caribbean Sea. 
 
 The Monroe Doctrine, it will be observed, is ut- 
 terly ignored; and it would appear that, in the eyes 
 of these writers, the United States, by its own acts, 
 has voided any justification for a policy of exclusive 
 control over the American continent. This view is 
 not, however, confined to professors and publicists, as 
 
 1® Waltershausen, Deutschland und die Handelspolitik der Vere- 
 inigten Staaten 'von Amerika, 1898, 
 
 1'^ Dix, Deutschland auf den Hochstrassen des ffeltivirtschafte- 
 verkehrs, 1901. 
 
120 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 German apologists in America now declare. It has 
 august sanction. 
 
 In an article already quoted from the Fortnightly 
 Review by " Fabricius," a statement on the Monroe 
 Doctrine, which Prince Bismarck, on February 9th, 
 1896, caused to be printed in the Hamburger Nach- 
 richten, is included. It is as follows: 
 
 "We are of opinion that that doctrine (the Monroe Doc- 
 trine) and the way in which it is now advanced by the Amer- 
 ican Republic is an incredible impertinence towards the rest 
 of the world. The Monroe Doctrine is merely an act of 
 violence, based upon great strength, towards all American 
 States and towards those European States vv^hich possess inter- 
 ests in America. . . . We are under the impression that the 
 great wealth which the American soil had furnished to its 
 inhabitants has caused part of the American legislators to 
 overestimate their own rights, and to underestimate at the 
 same time the right to independence possessed by the other 
 American Powers and by the European Powers as well." 
 
 There is no reason to suppose that the attitude of 
 Germany has changed towards the Monroe Doctrine ; 
 and it is quite clear that if Great Britain and her 
 Allies should be defeated in this war, the Monroe 
 Doctrine in relation to the policy of Germany would 
 no longer be a matter of inspired protest or of 
 academic inquiry; and that neither Canada, the West 
 Indies, nor South America would, in the German 
 view, be protected by its canons. 
 
 Nothing could show Germany's policy more 
 clearly than its attitude in the Spanish-American 
 War, when, had it been possible, she would have 
 prevented the United States from acquiring the Phil- 
 ippines. She had a squadron there as large as that 
 commanded by Admiral Dewey. Admiral Died- 
 richs interfered with Admiral Dewey's operations, 
 and only the intervention of England prevented a 
 
CHALLENGING THE MONROE DOCTRINE 121 
 
 collision between German and American naval 
 forces — as it had done before in 1889 in the har- 
 bour of Apia in Samoa, when the Calliope, com- 
 manded by Captain Kane, brought effective influence 
 to bear; enforced dramatically by the hurricane which 
 destroyed four German, and three American, war- 
 ships lying in the harbour. 
 
 The following quotation from " Nautlcus '' in the 
 German Year Book bears not indirectly upon the 
 statement made by Bismarck. It would imply that 
 the United States has some right to be the " pro- 
 tector " of the American continent, but that its claim 
 to uphold the Monroe Doctrine disappeared when 
 it began to pursue a policy of Empire outside the 
 boundaries of the United States. 
 
 " The interference of the States with other continents 
 which has actually taken place should make an end of the 
 Doctrine, but Americans will not see it. 
 
 *^ One side of the Monroe Doctrine was, No intervention 
 outside America, and that went with the seizure of the 
 Phihppines." ^^ , 
 
 The learned Dr. W. Wintzer long ago decided 
 that the time had come for Germany not merely to 
 ignore this absurd superstition of " the Yankees," 
 but to defy it openly. He gives expression to the 
 widespread German sentiment on this matter in his 
 book, Germany and the Future of Tropical Amer- 
 ica, in which he says that " the moral core " of the 
 Monroe Doctrine disappeared on the day when the 
 document concerning the annexation of the Philip- 
 pines was signed by President McKinley. There- 
 fore, he assumes that Germany has — 
 
 **The right to confront this Greater-American doctrine 
 with a Greater-German one: namely, that European, and 
 
 18 " Nautlcus," Jahrhuch fiir Deutschlands Seeinteressen. 
 
122 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 among them German, interests exist also in South America, 
 in case we have the power to assert them/' 
 
 According to Dr, Wintzer, Americans have no im- 
 portance in South America, and " south of the Isth- 
 mus of Panama the Yankees count for little or noth- 
 ing." He endeavours to show that American trade 
 is falling off there while German trade is growing, 
 and that because of this the United States might as 
 well abandon her interests. Germany, he loudly de- 
 clares, needs room for her rapidly growing popula- 
 tion, and she, — 
 
 " Cannot allow herself to be simply dispossessed of her in- 
 heritance in one of the most thinly peopled and richest 
 quarters of the globe — South America." ^^ 
 
 This " inheritance " also, presumably, is to be 
 established by the power to claim it; and with a 
 clank of the mailed fist, always so near to every Ger- 
 man professor's writing table, Herr Wintzer lays 
 down the text of his doctrine : 
 
 " Equality of treatment with the United States in South 
 America : that is the theory which we, both on principle and as 
 occasion serves, must oppose to the Monroe Doctrine, and 
 which, too, should the moment come, we must defend by 
 force." 20 
 
 With these evidences of German intentions and 
 policy regarding South America before us, it will 
 perhaps be appropriate to recall the exact nature of 
 the document which has in the past been such a stern 
 impediment to their application, and has had sensible 
 influence on the actions of the Powers of the world 
 and on civilization at large. Its terms are specific. 
 
 In his famous message to Congress in the year 
 
 19 Wintzer, Die Deutschen im tropischen America. 
 
 20 Ibid. 
 
PRESIDENT MONROE'S MESSAGE 123 
 
 1823, when discussing the settlement of claims of 
 Russia, Great Britain and the United States in the 
 Northwest of the American continent, President 
 Monroe said: 
 
 " The occasion has been judged proper for asserting as a 
 principle In which the rights and interests of the United States 
 are involved, that the American continents, by the free and 
 independent condition which they have assumed, are hence- 
 forth not to be considered as subjects for further colonization 
 by any European Power." 
 
 Discussing the Holy Alliance, the President 
 added: 
 
 " We owe, therefore, to candour and to the amicable rela- 
 tions existing between the United States and those powers, 
 to declare that we should consider any attempt on their part 
 to extend their system to any portion of this hemisphere as 
 dangerous to our peace and safety. With the existing colo- 
 nies or dependencies of any European Power we have not 
 interfered and sha.ll not interfere. But with the govern- 
 ments who have declared their independence and maintained 
 it, and whose independence we have on great consideration 
 and on just principles acknowledged, we could not view any 
 interposition for the purposes of oppressing them or con- 
 trolling in any other manner their destiny by any European 
 power in any other light than as a manifestation of an un- 
 friendly disposition towards the United States. ... It is 
 impossible that the Allied Powers should extend their political 
 system to any portion of either continent without endanger- 
 ing our peace and happiness. ... It is equally impossible, 
 therefore, that we should behold such interposition In any 
 form with indifference." 
 
 Troublesome as may be the Monroe Doctrine to 
 Germany or any other Power which has colonial and 
 imperial ambitions in relation to the American con- 
 tinent, it has been justified by events. The fate of 
 Maximilian in Mexico is known to all; and with his 
 
124 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 fate was, in some sense, linked that of France; for 
 the failure of Marshal Bazaine's army in Mexico to 
 sustain Maximilian's ambitions and position, had in- 
 fluence in causing Napoleon III to divert the atten- 
 tion of the French people, restless under the check, 
 by a challenge to Germany : with what end the world 
 knows. It is possible that if France had never sent 
 an army to Mexico, this war which now tortures the 
 world might not have occurred. The Franco-Prus- 
 sian War gave Germany her present ambitions and 
 her cry of " Empire or Downfall." 
 
 One prophetically-minded Pan-German, who calls 
 himself " Germania Triumphans," ^^ in a book con- 
 taining a map of the world redistributed according to 
 the author's forecast for 19 15, draws a vivid picture 
 of Germany fighting both Great Britain and the 
 United States. According to this seer, the United 
 States is first attacked and conquered, and then Bri- 
 tain, having stood passively by meanwhile, is taken 
 in turn. Five years later another writer. Dr. Eisen- 
 hart, making a similar prophecy, thought fit to reverse 
 the sequence. According to him Great Britain will 
 be the first to fall, adding, that then would come the 
 time to reckon with America. 
 
 With those to whom such theories appear fustian, 
 agreement is easy; yet it must be remembered that 
 it is just this sort of nonsense which has been 
 thought and spoken and written in Germany for 
 years past. It is the spirit of it which has launched 
 the German people upon their present terrific 
 struggle for World-Empire. With the German fail- 
 ing for " every sort of unpractical dream " goes the 
 fanatical passion for logical conclusions. Who can 
 
 21 " Germania Triumphans." Ruckblick auf die iveltgeschicht- 
 lichen Ereifnisse der Jahrs 1900-1915, von einem Grossdeutschen, 
 1895. 
 
TRANSATLANTIC AMBITIONS 125 
 
 say where these two characteristics may not lead 
 them, if they do not suffer a speedy and permanent 
 check? 
 
 The apologists of the German nation to-day are 
 making great efforts to repudiate the past expres- 
 sions and sentiments of their mihtarist professors 
 and academic generals. These do not, it is declared, 
 truly represent the essentially peace-loving and unag- 
 gressive nature of the German people. In the spec- 
 tacle of a nation, quoting Goethe and Schiller, whilst 
 acting Bernhardi and Treitschke, there is, however, 
 little appeal to any sense save that of humour. 
 
 The same apologists will no doubt try to make 
 light of the concluding paragraph of Treitschke's 
 lecture on the organization of the army in his Politik: 
 
 ^' I shall, in conclusion, only point out shortly that the fleet 
 is beginning to-day to gain increased importance, not specially 
 for European war — no one believes any longer that a fight 
 between Great Powers can be decided nowadays by naval 
 battles — but rather for the protection of trade and colonies. 
 The domination of the transatlantic countries will now. be the 
 first task of European battle-fleets. For, as the aim of human 
 culture will be the aristocracy of the white race over the whole 
 earth, the importance of a nation will ultimately depend upon 
 what share it has in the domination of the transatlantic world. 
 Therefore, the importance of the fleet has again grown greater 
 in our days." ^^ 
 
 '' Weltmacht oder Niedergang! ^^ — Some glimpse 
 of the relentless magnitude of the ambition expressed 
 in that cry has been given here, but the full extent 
 of it cannot be foreseen, and all lovers of civilization 
 will hope that it may never be realized. This world 
 would be an unhappy place were it to be ruled by 
 the people to whom, ^' The maintenance of peace 
 can never or may never be the goal/^ 
 
 22 Treitschke, "The Organization of th? Army*" Translated by 
 Adam L. Gowans, 1914. 
 
CHAPTER VI 
 
 THE OPPORTUNITY 
 
 The development of German power in recent his- 
 tory may be roughly divided into two periods — the 
 Bismarckian era, and the twenty-four years which 
 have elapsed since Bismarck's downfall. Stated dif- 
 ferently, the accession of William II was the turning- 
 point in Germany's military programme. As shown 
 in a previous chapter. Prince Bismarck's ambition 
 was limited to the consolidation of Germany's Euro- 
 pean position. He had dreams of a greater Ger- 
 many, but as his memoirs and biographies and the 
 public records of his speeches show, he did not make 
 them the basis of policy. Indeed, he carefully 
 curbed ambition and challenge of the British Empire 
 by declaring that the maritime strength of Great Bri- 
 tain was a dominant factor in the peace of the world, 
 and he warned the Reichstag against the " offensive- 
 defensive " policy, which has been the mainspring of 
 Germany's later schemes: 
 
 " If I were to say to you, ' we are threatened by France and 
 Russia ; it is better for us to fight at once ; an offensive war is 
 more advantageous to us,' and ask you for a credit of a hun- 
 dred millions, I do not know whether you would grant it — 
 I hope not." 
 
 It was enough for the great builder of Germany 
 to see that her military strength was equal to the de- 
 fence of what she had won, to fortify her position 
 by alliances, and, for the rest, to trust to foreign and 
 external conflicts of interests, which he might on oc- 
 
 126 
 
THE POLICY OF BISMARCK 127 
 
 casion judiciously encourage, to give Germany im- 
 munity from attack. 
 
 The circumstances of the time were favourable for 
 this cautious policy which traded on the troubles of 
 other nations. Great Britain always had before her 
 the vision of Russian columns threatening her In- 
 dian Empire; and also the memory of thwarted Rus- 
 sian ambitions at the Congress of Berlin, which 
 might well be, and were for long, mainsprings of 
 Russian policy. There were sources of friction be- 
 tween France and Great Britain in Newfoundland 
 and Africa ; while the bombardment of Alexandria, 
 with subsequent excursions into the Soudan, and the 
 disconcerting and humiliating episode of Fashoda, 
 kept the sore open for over twenty years. The 
 Franco-Russian Alliance was still a thing of the fu- 
 ture, and an unlikely event. The break-up of the 
 Dreikaiserbund, and the failure of the " reinsurance 
 treaties " with Russia which followed this event, did 
 not at once materially affect Germany's position.^ 
 It was succeeded by the Triple Alliance, which has 
 lasted so long and with so imposing an appearance, 
 but was so lacking in fundamental purpose and com- 
 mon understanding that one of its personnel boldly 
 abandoned it when cohesion and undivided support 
 were most needed. 
 
 Prince Bismarck, however, did not and could not 
 
 1 The Dreikaiserbund: an alliance of the Emperors of Austria, 
 Germany and Russia, dating from the meeting at Skierniewice in 
 1884. Owing to the antagonistic aims of Austrian and Russian 
 policy the understanding only lasted until i886. To minimize the 
 consequences of this split Bismarck exerted himself to maintain 
 friendly relations between Germany and Russia by means of what 
 was known as the Re-Insurance Treaty; which, in Prince Biilow's 
 words, " assured a more or less exceptional position for German 
 policy behind the defensive position of the Triple Alliance." Bis- 
 marck's successor failed to renew the Treaty, and ultimately this 
 failure led to the Franco-Russian agreement. 
 
128 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 foresee the adventurous policy which was to follow 
 his disappearance from the scene. So long as he 
 held office under the old Emperor whom he served so 
 long and so well, Germany was absolutely immune 
 against attack and freed from the need of feverish 
 military development. When the Boulanger Law- 
 raised the peace footing of the French army above 
 500,000 men, while that of Germany was 427,000, 
 and that of Russia 550,000, Bismarck was content 
 to counter with 41,000 men added to the peace es- 
 tablishment for seven years. 
 
 The old emperor died, and Frederick his son 
 reigned for only a few months. Had Frederick 
 lived, he would probably have tried to consolidate 
 Germany by constitutional reform; and perhaps he 
 might have succeeded, despite Prussian admission of 
 German political incapacity. But the experiment was 
 never to be tried. William II, a Prussian of the 
 Prussians, a whole-souled Brandenberger, inherited 
 neither his father's sober and trained military ca- 
 pacity nor his liberal opinions, though he possessed 
 an intellectual equipment of a very vigorous and 
 original order. He " threw back " to a more prim- 
 itive political type. As Alexander burned to ex- 
 pand the kingdom won by Philip into a world-empire, 
 in which he would make all the barbarians Hellenes, 
 so William II accepted Treitschke's teaching that, — 
 
 " The greatness and good of the world is to be found in 
 the predominance there of German culture, of the German 
 mind, in a word of the German character." 
 
 Bismarck fell, and then, as Prince Biilow has 
 shown, the Kaiser was steadily driven Into a policy 
 of aggression. From this policy, even had he 
 wished to do so, he could not escape, however 
 
THE BAGDAD ADVENTURE 129 
 
 shrewd his judgment might be; and it was shrewd 
 enough to wait for war, or at least to prevent war 
 until Germany was a pov/er commercially and in- 
 dustrially; until her banks could give her rope enough 
 to hang herself or her enemies. 
 
 Under Count Caprivi, who succeeded Bismarck, 
 the peace establishment of the army was again in- 
 creased, and time and again it has been increased 
 until it stood early in 19 14 at the enormous total of 
 800,000 men. At the same time the term of service 
 was reduced from three years to two, so making con- 
 scription less burdensome and enormously increasing 
 the number of trained men. France, no doubt in- 
 cited by the adventurous and unstable Boulanger, 
 '' that man of straw," had given an excuse for Bis- 
 marck's addition to the German army; but there 
 has been no such excuse for the additions made dur- 
 ing the last twenty years. During this period 
 France, with the utmost efforts, has never been able 
 to keep up an establishment of more than 545,000 
 men, with a war strength of 4,000,000, or about 
 two-thirds of the German war establishment. 
 
 Contemporaneously with this vast increase of the 
 German army came the development of colonial am- 
 bition; the acquisition of oversea territory; and the 
 foundation of a navy, the growth of which has set 
 the world agape. Germany's territorial acquisitions 
 were. In themselves, of no great immediate value ; but 
 as Prince Biilow more than once suggests, they are of 
 value as points of support, as coaling-stations and 
 " jumping-off " places. The most notable adven- 
 ture, however, was the exploitation of the Bagdad 
 railw^ay, of which the ex-Chancellor speaks with en- 
 thusiasm : ^ 
 
 ^Imperial Germany, p. 116. 
 
I30 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 " This threw open to German Influence and German enter- 
 prise a field of activity between the Mediterranean Sea and 
 the Persian Gulf, on the rivers Euphrates and Tigris, and 
 along their banks. ... If one can speak of boundless pros- 
 pects anywhere, it is in Mesopotamia." 
 
 As has been shown in earlier pages, this stride to- 
 wards the South-East was a main factor in the pres- 
 ent war. 
 
 At the same time the Kaiser made a proclamation 
 to Islam. When it is remembered that his Moslem 
 subjects may be counted by hundreds, it would be 
 farcical, were it not pregnant with tragic implica- 
 tions : 
 
 " May the Sultan and the three hundred million Mussul- 
 mans scattered over the earth be assured that the German Em- 
 peror will always be their friend." 
 
 That was the Irade of the new seeker for the 
 riches of the Orient, the new adventurer into the 
 Asiatic world, envious of those who had been there 
 for generations, making a bold bid for recognition in 
 fields where at the time he had no footing. The 
 Inner menace of this proclamation made at Damascus 
 by the Kaiser in the year 1898 is too obvious to be 
 stated here. 
 
 Excepting in Mesopotamia, the intrinsic value of 
 the new German Colonies was trifling; but they were 
 of enormous value to German policy. They enabled 
 the Kaiser to speak of his " Colonial Empire," and 
 of the urgent necessity of building a great fleet to 
 protect it from envious rivals. That there was not 
 a nation in the world which would sacrifice the lives 
 of a single brigade to hoist its flag at Dar-es-Salaam 
 or Swakopmund did not matter; it was enough for 
 the Kaiser to pretend that German Colonies were 
 coveted by others and that their trade with the 
 
THE GERMAN NAVY 131 
 
 Fatherland had to be maintained. His estimate of 
 human credulity was quite accurate. He not only 
 persuaded his own people that a huge navy was indis- 
 pensable for their Imperial security, but he managed 
 to persuade a large number of British people as well. 
 Prince Biilow, in a passage already quoted, has ex- 
 plained how essential it was not to ruffle British sus- 
 ceptibilities while the German navy was in its infancy; 
 so the loud talk of Germany's Colonial Empire and 
 the duty of protecting it duped the British people 
 into careless acquiescence as it grew stronger. Some 
 there were, indeed, who saw and proclaimed the 
 menace of German ship-building, but they made their 
 warning to deaf ears. Prince Biilow, in his notable 
 book, quotes with point a remark of the Daily Chron- 
 icle : 
 
 " If the German Fleet had been smashed in October, 1904, 
 we should have had peace in Europe for sixty years." 
 
 Millions of Pacifists to-day, seeing what is now 
 forward, must regret that It did not happen ten years 
 ago, if Germany was determined to make war as now 
 we know without peradventure she meant to do. 
 
 There Is nothing to be gained by following the 
 German navy in the making, or compiling tables of 
 strengths and classes of ships. It Is enough to say 
 that in seven years the German navy was already a 
 rnenace, and that in seventeen It upset the calcula- 
 tions of naval experts all over the world. Great 
 Britain had to alter her standard of naval supremacy 
 from the two-Power standard to the two-keel stand- 
 ard, and from that to the standard of 16 to 10; Ger- 
 many's naval strength alone being the basis of the 
 calculation. 
 
 Admiration for this stupendous effort cannot blind 
 us to the crime against international equity of which 
 
132 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 it was the product. The ultimate object of the Ger- 
 man Government is no longer a matter of specula- 
 tion. It was revealed by the German Chancellor to 
 Sir Edward Goschen on the 29th of July, 19 14. 
 Dr. von Bethmann-Hollweg then told our Ambas- 
 sador that if England remained neutral Germany 
 would not deprive France of territory, but she could 
 not give a similar undertaking with respect to French 
 Colonies. It thus appears that the German navy 
 was not Intended to attack England directly and at 
 first, but was to enable Germany to crush France 
 and win a Colonial Empire at her expense. After- 
 wards? As to that the German doctrine is on rec- 
 ord: crush France first, and then Great Britain, 
 exposed to attack from across the Channel at Calais, 
 for which the German legions are now vainly striv- 
 ing, would be an easy prey. 
 
 It is instructive to note how, as the German octo- 
 pus grew in strength, it began to thrust its feelers 
 into the affairs of all the world. It has been the 
 Kaiser's aspiration that nothing should happen any- 
 where without Germany's approval. The first mani- 
 festations of this high resolve were tentative — the 
 Venezuela demonstration, the Kruger telegram, the 
 Persian scheme, the Kaiser's dramatic visit to Mo- 
 rocco, to Jerusalem. Time after time the feelers 
 were put out, as preliminary trials of strength, to be 
 withdrawn after the experiment; sometimes, as at 
 Agadir,. with great loss of prestige. While this was 
 going on there were underground activities of con- 
 spiracy and incitement to revolution started among 
 the natives of India; among the Mussulmans of 
 Egypt, and also among the disaffected elements of 
 South Africa which, as the world knows, succeeded 
 in fomenting a rebellion, perilous in its promise and 
 proportions, futile in performance. Its defeat has 
 
THE POLITICAL PERIHELION 133 
 
 been accompanied by an exposure of German con- 
 spiracy, which should be evidence to neutral coun- 
 tries of Germany's long-matured designs to make 
 war and conquer the British Empire. 
 
 So the work went on, and the navy meanwhile 
 grew, until at last the German Emperor was inspired 
 to proclaim himself " Emperor of the Atlantic." 
 
 Germany^s preparations were all but complete. 
 Her war-machine on land was pronounced fit as hands 
 could make it; her navy, if still unable to meet that 
 of England on the open sea, was at least able to 
 cripple her movements in the unlikely event of her 
 hostility; and it was also equal to any other task 
 which might be imposed upon it. Two of the three 
 sanctions of the new creed were assured. War 
 would be an Advantage, and the Power was there; 
 but what of the Opportunity? 
 
 The questions of Power and Opportunity, indeed, 
 were correlative. Strength equal to one set of con- 
 ditions might be unequal to the strain of another. 
 In a normal Europe, awake to Germany's real aims, 
 it might be doubtful whether German power was 
 equal to German aspirations. It was, therefore, 
 necessary to wait for a propitious conjunction of the 
 political planets. This occurred in 19 14. Euro- 
 pean conditions became normal then. A very 
 brief survey will show how Germany came to think 
 that in June, 19 14, the moment had at last come to 
 put her fate to the touch. She must indeed have 
 thought them extremely happy for her purpose to 
 have found the cause of war in a Slav question which, 
 being certain to set Russia in a flame against her, 
 was little likely to stir enthusiasm in Italy, her part- 
 ner in the Triple Alliance. For Italy, having of- 
 fended Turkey by invading Tripoli, would hardly 
 care to offend the Slavs as well, especially as the re- 
 
134 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 suit of a successful war would be to make hated Aus- 
 tria supreme on the Adriatic. Against this Ger- 
 many would naturally set the enthusiasm of Austria 
 for a war of revenge for the murder of an able and 
 popular heir to the throne of the Dual Monarchy; 
 while she would bear in mind the advanced age of 
 the Emperor Francis Joseph, and the very uncertain 
 and disquieting consequences of his death. Looking 
 to the condition of her possible opponents, however, 
 she had, on balance, some well-founded reasons for 
 thinking that all was favourable to her design, or 
 at least would never be more favourable. 
 
 In South Eastern Europe the Balkan States were 
 exhausted by the war with Turkey and by subsequent 
 internecine conflict, which had been secretly fomented 
 by Germany and Austria, to secure the disruption 
 of the Balkan League and to save Turkey from the 
 worst consequences of defeat. Bulgaria, ruled by 
 a German and antagonistic to Serbia, would certainly 
 not help the latter, and might perhaps attack her. 
 Greece was preoccupied with Albania; and Rou- 
 mania, the one Balkan State emerging unscathed 
 after 19 13, was under the rule of a Hohenzollern, 
 who might be trusted to restrain for the time being 
 Roumanians purposes as to Transylvania. 
 
 Belgium, where (it had. been determined) the first 
 blow must be struck, had shown signs that she would 
 not passively suffer the violation of her neutrality. 
 She had been making preparations to strengthen her 
 army and her fortresses. Her system of conscrip- 
 tion, however, had been in force but two years, her 
 army was only in its infancy. To wait much longer 
 might make the invasion of Belgium more difficult. 
 It has indeed proved difficult enough. 
 
 The internal conditions of Russia, where German 
 hopes, long encouraged by the immense influence of 
 
CONDITIONS IN RUSSIA 135 
 
 German officials in every department of Russian gov- 
 ernment, had died at last because of the alHance with 
 France and England, were, as usual, somewhat mys- 
 terious and conjectural. Socially and industrially 
 there were no visible signs of any abatement of the 
 hostility of races and classes or of any decline in rev- 
 olutionary sentiment; indeed, a serious strike was in 
 progress in the summer of 19 14. There were, how- 
 ever, fears that the great agrarian and other reforms 
 might in time produce greater social harmony in the 
 Tsar's dominions. The internal conditions of Rus- 
 sia could hardly be worse, and they might become 
 better. Also there were reasons for believing that 
 the Russian Government would have great difficulty 
 in finding ready money for a war. As to her mili- 
 tary position, Russia had recovered with great ra- 
 pidity from her Manchurian disaster. She had 
 learned a lesson from it; and Germany was very well 
 aware that she was building strategic railways and 
 reconstructing her army upon admirable lines; 
 though the completeness of that reconstruction was 
 not suspected, as time and events have proved. If 
 Russia was to be faced, no time could be better than 
 the present. Every month that passed would weigh 
 down the scales against Germany. 
 
 When Germany turned to observe her western 
 rivals the omens of success were still more favour- 
 able. France was in the throes of political strife, 
 tortured by internal anxieties, excited and dismayed 
 by the murder of M. Calmette and the resignation 
 of M. Caillaux. One strong Ministry had fallen, 
 to be succeeded by another, admittedly a makeshift. 
 The country also, as a whole, was divided over the 
 question of the army; and although the final decision 
 had been to strengthen it, the necessary steps to that 
 end had hardly yet been taken. Grave accusations 
 
136 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 of corruption and inefficiency, resulting in a grievous 
 deficiency of military equipment, had been made; and 
 there were ominous confessions of financial strin- 
 gency. The French army, therefore, appeared 
 badly prepared for emergencies, while the political 
 state of the country was chaotic. That the French 
 would fight with all the fire of revenge and the cour- 
 age of despair was certain; that their resources would 
 be equal to their valour was extremely doubtful. 
 Of course, the struggle would be intensified by the 
 Intervention of Russia, with which Germany was not 
 confronted In 1870. Still, with France unready and 
 the mobilization of Russia notoriously and tradi- 
 tionally unwieldy, the French armies could be crushed 
 and Paris taken before it became necessary to meet 
 the slow-moving armies of the East. While on 
 land, the position might not be as favourable as in 
 1870, there was, however, a German fleet In being 
 which would more than redress the balance. Forty- 
 four years ago the small German navy was pinned 
 In its harbours; now it could take the sea, ravage 
 the many vulnerable places on the coast of France, 
 and destroy her commerce. 
 
 In these latter calculations Germany had to take 
 into account the attitude of Great Britain; but, ap- 
 praising the conditions of that country, she saw the 
 fairest presage of success, the most convincing signs 
 that the Day, to which she had drunk so often, had 
 dawned at last. The conditions in Great Britain, 
 as Germany viewed them, gave ample promise that 
 she might, perhaps of her own choice, but more 
 assuredly by force of circumstances, adopt a neutral 
 attitude. They actually encouraged the fond belief 
 that, even If neutrality was Impossible, Britain would 
 prove powerless to give much help to her friends 
 of the Entente, or Indeed to avert her own ruin. 
 
ENGLAND'S CRUMBLING EMPIRE 137 
 
 German opinion was permeated by Treitschke's be- 
 lief that the British Empire was only a bubble to be 
 pricked. England had shown no ability in welding 
 it together; the waving of Union Jacks and the sing- 
 ing of the National Anthem did not connote sol- 
 idarity. The colossus which bestrode the world had 
 a forehead of brass and feet of brittle clay. It was 
 an Imposture. *' A thing that Is wholly a sham," 
 said Treitschke of England, " cannot in this universe 
 of ours endure for ever. It may endure for a day, 
 but its doom is certain, there is no room for it in a 
 world governed by valour, by the Will to Power." 
 
 Nor were portents lacking that the end of the 
 Empire was nearing without the pressure of outside 
 force or attack. German publicists discerned signs 
 of the " centrifugal tendency " of the British Do- 
 minions. As we now know, Germany had been sow- 
 ing seeds of disloyalty in South Africa, and hoped 
 to see a bountiful return. She was also busy in 
 Ireland and with the Irish-Americans. It was her 
 view that in a moment of enthusiasm the Canadian 
 Government had promised to build battleships; but 
 the people had refused to be led into the adventure, 
 or at least would only build Canadian ships for local 
 use, not British ships for world-uses. The Austral- 
 asian Colonies were grumbling about the neglect of 
 the Pacific and the falsification of promises by the 
 British Admiralty. The excuse that the British navy 
 was wanted nearer home only made matters worse; 
 the Dominions would hardly accept the doctrine that 
 their safety was to be secured In the North Sea ; de- 
 serted by the parent, the children would fend for 
 themselves. 
 
 The German political scouts saw, and exaggerated 
 out of all recognition, the discords between various 
 members of the Imperial family throughout the 
 
138 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 world. South Africa and India were at loggerheads 
 over the question of the British Indians; Lord Har- 
 dinge had made a speech in which he championed 
 the Indians against the harsh action, the unfriendly 
 legislation of another great country in the Empire; 
 Canada and India were waxing warm over a similar 
 controversy; while the Imperial Government was 
 distraught by anxiety and apparently powerless to 
 heal the quarrel. India was honeycombed with se- 
 cret societies, agitators reviled the British Raj, even 
 independence was whispered in the bazaars. Also 
 there was Egypt, chafing under British rule, its bud- 
 ding democracy striving to burst into flower. Its 
 Khedive conspiring with the enemies of Lord Kitch- 
 ener. The wish becoming father to the thought, 
 Germany discerned in Egypt the real intellectual in- 
 fluences of Islam, only awaiting a sign from Con- 
 stantinople to stir up the Moslem world to a holy 
 war. Intrigue was doing its work, aided by corrup- 
 tion; the emissaries of Germany were sowing the 
 black seed from the Delta to the sources of the Nile; 
 and they were confident of a bounteous harvest. Ap- 
 parently not in the darkest days of 1857 was Eng- 
 land's position so desperate. Everywhere, accord- 
 ing to the German field-glasses, signs of disruption 
 in the Empire were visible. 
 
 As Teuton eyes saw it all, things were no better 
 at the heart of the Empire. In the Teutonic view 
 the British army was " contemptible." Whatever 
 traditions of glory it once possessed had been 
 smirched by the South African Campaign. A quar- 
 ter of a million men, splendidly equipped, had been 
 held at bay for nearly three years by a handful of 
 farmers. In that war British soldiers had surren- 
 dered when only four or five per cent, of the fighters 
 had been actually shot; while the loss of a few hun- 
 
BRITISH ANTI-MILITARISM 139 
 
 'dred men in an action plunged England into the 
 depths of misery. The nation had grown soft. 
 Inadequate as the army had shown itself in valour 
 and numbers, yet it had been still further reduced 
 by the Government in power since 1906. Was not 
 Germany assured by the Press of England that the 
 territorial army had never come to its full strength, 
 and was diminishing day by day! Even powerful 
 patriotic plays, showing the horrors of invasion, 
 could not lure a handful of this degenerate people 
 from football matches to a couple of hours' drill 
 each week. Lord Roberts was looked upon as some- 
 thing between a victim of senility and a criminal, 
 when he advocated, not conscription, but a general 
 system of civil military training. Was it not clear 
 that no responsible politician would endanger his 
 future by advocating so unpopular a scheme? Eng- 
 land was the platform of the most fantastic Pacifist 
 doctrines. Many of her most prominent public men 
 were always ingeminating peace at any price. War 
 with a European power was regarded as unthinkable, 
 and preparation for war was opposed to civic lib- 
 erty. Some wretched youths, who had thrown up 
 a promising future in New Zealand rather than bow 
 to the tyranny of the drill-sergeant, were paraded by 
 a leading journal in Trafalgar Square as martyred 
 evangelists. 
 
 So soulless had the British race become (to the 
 German mind) that when they saw their sovereignty 
 of the sea assailed, and themselves threatened with 
 famine, they could not bring themselves to build 
 against their rivals. They preferred to make pro- 
 posals for a reduction of armaments and to suggest 
 a naval holiday. There were even some who urged 
 that England should disarm in order to set a good 
 example to other nations. Such a people, it was 
 
140 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 argued in Berlin, were in the last degree unlikely to 
 take up arms in other people's quarrels. 
 
 But even if they could pluck up sufficient spirit, 
 their political conditions and divisions would pre- 
 vent them from entering into war. Never in British 
 history were the great parties of the State so bitterly 
 opposed to one another; never were they so sep- 
 arated by internecine hatreds. Antagonism had 
 come to the point of civil war in Ireland. There 
 were a hundred thousand men in Ulster pledged to 
 resist the Home Rule Bill by force, drilling openly 
 under the command of British officers, smuggling 
 in arms under the nose of the blockading British 
 fleet. Also there were twice as many Nationalist 
 Volunteers drilling and smuggling arms, and resolved 
 to fight if Home Rule was not granted. There had 
 been bloodshed in the streets of Dublin, where sol- 
 diers had fired on gun-runners; the army itself was 
 infected by schism. There had been events at the 
 Curragh, styled " mutiny " by some prominent Min- 
 isters. At the best these things showed that the 
 army was undoubtedly disaffected. The King him- 
 self, appalled at the situation, had endeavoured with- 
 out success to bring about an accommodation. 
 
 The German, high and low, prince and plebeian, 
 visitors and spies, Krupp's and commercial trav- 
 ellers, beHeved that civil war in the British isles was 
 imminent — a question of weeks or days. Nothing 
 but a miracle could avert it; and that miracle would 
 involve the fall of the Liberal Ministry. To this 
 particular event Berlin statesmen had looked forward 
 with apprehension. " When the Unionists, with 
 their greater fixity of purpose, replace the Liberals 
 at the helm, we must be prepared for a vigorous 
 assertion of power by the island Empire," wrote one 
 of their watchmen on the tower. Whether he was 
 
THE HOUR 141 
 
 right or wrong matters nothing. He expressed the 
 German view, and that view impelled Germany to 
 see in the state of British affairs encouragement to 
 an opportunity for aggression. 
 
 That Germany miscalculated; that Russia, better 
 prepared than was thought, would not cringe before 
 the mailed fist in 19 14 as she did in 1909; that 
 France would not give way as she did in 1905; that 
 Great Britain possessed hidden resources of vigour 
 and unity which would in emergency burst through 
 every paralysing influence; that the British Empire 
 was not a sham, but a reality; that Belgium valued 
 honour more than safety: all this has been demon- 
 strated. Germany, however, saw the situation 
 through spectacles of her own making; she tested 
 the ideals of other nations by her own materiahsm; 
 she beHeved that the Hour had struck, and that with 
 it had come the man, the Hohenzollern, on whom 
 " the Spirit of the Lord had descended "; who was 
 at last to find his place in the sun as he had ever 
 held it in the lime-light. War was to Germany's 
 advantage now; by her own efforts and the weak- 
 ness of her rivals the power for conquest was in her 
 hands ; the opportunity only was wanted. That op- 
 portunity was supplied by the murder of the Arch- 
 duke Franz Ferdinand at Serajevo. 
 
CHAPTER VII 
 
 THE CLOUD IN THE EAST 
 
 If h3^notism were an implement of state-craft, It 
 might seem as though the crime of Serajevo was 
 " suggested " by the war-makers of Berlin, so ad- 
 mirably did it serve their purpose. France, the old 
 enemy, was in arrears with military reform; she was 
 financially embarrassed, and vexed by intestine trou- 
 bles; Germany, on the other hand, was ready to the 
 last button on the tunic, the last torpedo for her sub- 
 marines, even to the fire-raising confetti which would 
 make arson a fine art. The great guns, before which 
 the stoutest fortresses would crumble into powder, 
 were concealed in the casemates of Essen; their em- 
 placements were already built in the suburban gar- 
 dens of Antwerp, Maubeuge and elsewhere. Ger- 
 man agents had swept Ireland clear of horses dur- 
 ing the Spring, and had filled the national granaries 
 with abundant food supplies; German financiers, at 
 home and abroad, were ready at a moment's notice 
 to bring the subtle and dehcate machinery of the 
 money market into the service of their country; and 
 they did actually open their financial campaign In 
 London during the month of July. And now, like 
 a god out of the machine, came the murder of the 
 heir to a great throne; member of a family whose 
 tragedies rival those of the Atrldae and have aroused 
 the sympathy of the world for the venerable chief 
 of the House of Hapsburg. It was beyond per- 
 adventure that mankind would cry out against the 
 assassination of a prince of proved capacity, of rep- 
 
 142 
 
AUSTRO-SERBIAN RELATIONS 143 
 
 utable life and high ideals; who, it had been hoped, 
 would save the countries of the Dual Monarchy 
 from disintegration, and who favoured constitutional 
 reform. Also, this crime had been committed by 
 men of a race stained by the memory of an even 
 darker deed, and, because of it, excommunicated for 
 a time by civilized nations. 
 
 In one respect at least German calculations were 
 accurate. The world was shocked at the deed of the 
 28th of June. It was a crime without circumstance 
 of extenuation. The grievances between Austria 
 and Serbia, however, have not been all on one side. 
 If Serbia has been a turbulent neighbour, her turbu- 
 lence and animosity have had behind them a great 
 and ambitious patriotism and a deep concern for 
 the welfare of the Serb population of Bosnia, Herze- 
 govina and Hungary; and her offences have been 
 largely, if not mainly, the products of Austrian 
 intolerance, tyranny and oppression. Again and 
 again had Serbia's natural aspirations for commer- 
 cial and political expansion been thwarted by her 
 powerful neighbour. The absorption of Bosnia- 
 Herzegovina, which destroyed the vision of a greater 
 Serbia, was bad enough; but to have been arbitrarily 
 deprived of a sea-port on the Adriatic, which she 
 had fairly won by her valour, was bitterly worse. 
 The treatment of her fellow-Slavs in Croatia had 
 long exasperated Serbia; had been a goad in her 
 side; and she knew that the sympathy of the outside 
 world had not been denied her in her indignation, 
 while Russia would give her firm moral support at 
 least. The unprejudiced historian will probably de- 
 cide that, as between Austria and Serbia, the balance 
 of right is on the side of the smaller State. Still, 
 not all the wrongs which Serbia has suffered could 
 excuse the assassination of the Archduke Franz 
 
144 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 Ferdinand. It was not only a savage crime, but it 
 was aimless and unjust; for the victim was the one 
 man of power in his country who most sympathized 
 with his future Slavonic subjects, and was most de- 
 termined to do them justice. Europe was revolted 
 by the aimless injustice of the deed, as well as by its 
 brutality. So late as the 27th of July, 19 14, Sir 
 Edward Grey told our Ambassador in Paris that — 
 
 ^^ The dispute between Austria and Serbia was not one in 
 which we felt called upon to take a hand, — " 
 
 while four days earlier he had informed our Am- 
 bassador in St. Petersburg that he did not consider 
 that English opinion would or ought to sanction 
 going to war over a Serbian quarrel. Even Russia 
 agreed that Austria was entitled to guarantees from 
 Serbia for future good behaviour. 
 
 It is not too late to recapture in all its poignancy 
 the memory of that catastrophe which fell upon the 
 nations out of a clear sky. People in most coun- 
 tries, execrating the murder of the Archduke, had 
 read with sympathy of the sorrow of his people, and 
 had turned from the account of his midnight burial 
 to other happenings of sensational interest — the 
 trial of Madame Caillaux and the Home Rule Con- 
 ference at Buckingham Palace. It was understood 
 that some Pan-Serbian conspiracy had been un- 
 earthed; but as conspiracies are not uncommon in 
 Balkan politics it was not a sensation of compelling 
 interest. Foreign correspondents talked of activity 
 in the Chancelleries, but the world shrugged its 
 shoulders. To the general public diplomatists are 
 men who beguile their abundant leisure by construct- 
 ing mountains out of molehills with reprehensible 
 toll, and by smoothing the mountains back into mole- 
 hills with repentant and commendable skill. Even 
 
CALCULATING WAR LORDS 145 
 
 the presentation of the epoch-making Austrian Note 
 did not greatly agitate the public mind. Serbia had 
 practically accepted most of it, and she was ready 
 to submit the unsettled points to arbitration; while 
 Sir Edward Grey had suggested a Conference, to 
 which France and Italy were agreed and to which 
 Germany was said to be favourable. The business 
 seemed susceptible of easy accommodation. Even 
 when the Share Market slumped, there were only a 
 few chronic pessimists who darkly hinted at deep 
 international trouble. Fewer still had any idea of 
 the feverish correspondence between the Capitals. 
 They went about their ordinary business as did the 
 citizens of Herculaneum on the eve of its destruc- 
 tion, conscious that there were clouds in the sky, but 
 convinced that the hubble-bubble of the diplomatic 
 heights would pass. The whole Balkan affair was, 
 after all, so simple. Serbia would be taught a lesson 
 in propriety; and there would be an end to it. From 
 their standpoint they were quite justified in their 
 view: that would have been the end of it had not 
 the ambitious and exultant Camarilla of Berlin de- 
 termined otherwise. 
 
 Those who accuse the German War Lords of 
 recklessness in provoking a European war, and folly 
 in selecting as its cause a Balkan question, which 
 might alienate Italian sympathy, do inadequate jus- 
 tice to that formidable circle. Whatever demerits 
 may be theirs, recklessness is not one of them. On 
 the contrary, the cold calculation of their unchang- 
 ing purposes is one of their most repellent charac- 
 teristics. As Carlyle said of Goethe, their sky is a 
 vault of ice. They had, of course, no desire for a 
 general war; they proposed to devour their rivals 
 one by one, as one sudks the leaves of an artichoke. 
 For this purpose nothing better could be found than 
 
146 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 a quarrel which would command natural sympathy 
 for their injured ally; which would excite Western 
 Europe but little, and England least of all, what- 
 ever might be the effect upon Russia. 
 
 But there were other reasons, more direct and 
 potent, which made a Balkan question peculiarly 
 convenient. It would be an excuse for a punitive 
 expedition, with the consequent aggrandisement of 
 Germanic influence in Southeastern Europe; and it 
 would furnish the opportunity, when desired, to 
 launch the larger war-scheme. It might, indeed, 
 offend Italy to see an extension of Austrian influence 
 on the Adriatic ; but Italy was a doubtful ally at the 
 best; and her displeasure would be more than bal- 
 anced by Austrian gratitude and Austria's subsequent 
 and complete subserviency. Valuable, indeed essen- 
 tial, however, as was Austrian loyalty to the Triple 
 Alliance, there were other advantages, not less im- 
 portant, to be gained by the punishment of Serbia 
 and the shattering of her integrity. 
 
 Of all the smaller Slav States Serbia is the most 
 formidable, of all the Balkan States it has been the 
 least friendly to German interests. With her out of 
 the v/ay, or weakened by a judicious partition of por- 
 tions of her territory between Austria, Roumania 
 and Bulgaria, the two latter States being ruled by 
 German dynasties, Teutonic influence would be dom- 
 inant from the Danube to the Golden Horn, and a 
 solid wall would be built against Russian designs and 
 influence. The great Slav Power would be ef- 
 fectually barred from the Mediterranean. True, 
 Austria had renounced all designs of territorial ag- 
 grandisement at the expense of Serbia; but, as Dr. 
 Dillon, than whom there is no more alert authority 
 in Eastern politics, is careful to point out, she had 
 renounced them for herself alone. She had not 
 
GERMANY LOOKS SOUTH EAST 147 
 
 renounced them on behalf of the other Balkan States, 
 nor would her self-denying ordinance deprive her, 
 in good time, of laying hands on Salonika. 
 
 So much for Austria. But what of Germany? 
 It was not altruism, or the vision of what might 
 come in the still distant future of a Central Euro- 
 pean Federation, which drove her to make this Bal- 
 kan question her own. With the Eastern Mediter- 
 ranean dominated by Teutonic influence, her plans 
 of aggression in Morocco v/ould be carried out in 
 a vacuum, when France was crushed; as crushed she 
 must be at the most convenient moment. But there 
 was a more immediate and valuable advantage to 
 be gained by bringing Southeastern Europe under 
 the Germanic yoke. Through the Balkans lay the 
 straight road to the Hellespont and Asia Minor; 
 to those regions on the Tigris and Euphrates of 
 which Prince Biilow has written with such enthu- 
 siasm; to the proud position of Protector of Islam; 
 to the very citadel of England's Eastern Empire. 
 To the German, dreaming of expansion in the rich 
 plains of Mesopotamia, of advance to the Southern 
 waters of Asia, the reversion of the isles of Greece 
 to their ancient nationality was unendurable; for 
 Greece is strongly Anglophile and fiercely antago- 
 nistic to the Turk. She might even in time regain 
 a hold upon some of her Asiatic possessions. This 
 undesirable development would be thwarted by a 
 skilful revision of the Treaty of Bucharest. Thus 
 history repeated itself. Just as, five hundred years 
 before the Christian era, the politics of Asia Minor 
 sent Darius and Xerxes into Macedonia and Hellas, 
 so to-day the politics of Asia Minor induced WilHam 
 of Germany to prosecute an aggressive policy in 
 Southeastern Europe. 
 
 There were, then, many advantages to be gained 
 
148 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 by making the murder of the Archduke Franz Ferdi- 
 nand a cause of war. Some were positive — the 
 check to Russian influence, the satisfaction and ful- 
 filment of Austrian policy, the furtherance of Ger- 
 many's Asiatic ambitions; others were negative, but 
 not less important. Russia might stand aside, as 
 she did in 1909; and if she did not still she 
 was unready for war. Even were she better pre- 
 pared than was thought, the cause of quarrel was not 
 unlikely to alienate the sympathies of her Western 
 Allies, neither of whom was in a position to make 
 war unless compelled to do so. With all this in 
 mind, it is not surprising that the advisers of the 
 Kaiser resolved to strike. 
 
 It may be objected that this is only theory; and 
 that Germany is not to be condemned on plausible 
 enem^y theories credited to her, as Thucydides em- 
 bodied his own ideas in the speeches of Pericles and 
 the Corcyrean Embassy. These theories, however, 
 do fit in to a nicety with what Germany was supposed 
 to want, and with what she actually did; for, as will 
 be seen, hers was the master-mind and hers the guid- 
 ing hand throughout the month of July, 19 14. She 
 has, indeed, confessed as much. In the book The 
 Truth about Germany, prepared for the American 
 public, which Is not a compilation of official de- 
 spatches, but a bowdlerized and manipulated state- 
 ment of the German case, there are some remarkable 
 admissions made by the distinguished committee who 
 edited it and were responsible for it. 
 
 We are informed in those pages that when Austria 
 apprised Germany of her view of the situation and 
 asked for Germany's opinion, she was given ^^ a com- 
 pletely free hand in her action towards Serbia." 
 There is no evidence whatever that Germany ever 
 counselled such prudence and moderation as would 
 
THE CHRONOLOGY OF A MONTH 149 
 
 avert a great war. On the contrary, Germany avows 
 that she was " perfectly aware that a possible war- 
 like attitude of Austria-Hungary against Serbia 
 might bring Russia upon the field," and yet she told 
 Austria " with all her heart," that " any action . . . 
 would meet with our approval." 
 
 Later, when Russia was willing to retire from the 
 field if the Austro-Serbian quarrel was referred to 
 England, France, Germany and Italy, Germany was 
 the one Power which refused to consent. And 
 finally, when at the eleventh hour, Russia and Aus- 
 tria were advancing towards agreement, and when 
 Count Szaparay, the Austrian Ambassador at Petro- 
 grad, had agreed to mediation on the main points 
 at issue between Austria and Serbia, Germany bolted 
 the door on peace by declaring war with Russia. 
 Germany has been throughout the moving spirit, 
 Austria no more than the subservient but no less 
 culpable friend and abettor. 
 
 Before proceeding, however, to fix responsibility 
 on the proper shoulders by an analysis of the nego- 
 tiations preceding the war, it will be well to survey 
 events in a broad perspective. 
 
 Two dates at once attract attention — the 28th of 
 June and the 28th of July, 19 14. On the first date 
 the Archduke and his wife were murdered; on the 
 latter Austria broke off diplomatic relations with 
 Serbia. How were the intervening thirty days em- 
 ployed? The answer is significant and instructive. 
 Twenty-five days were occupied by police officials in 
 investigating the circumstances of the crime; five — 
 only five — were devoted to correspondence between 
 Vienna and Belgrade. Negotiations on which hung 
 the issues of peace and war, and that — as was soon 
 apparent — a war which would change the face of a 
 Continent and vitally affect the destinies of the world, 
 
I50 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 were crowded into one hundred and twenty hours. 
 That, moreover, is not all, or even the worst. On 
 the fateful 28th of July, the Serbian Minister at 
 Belgrade handed the Serbian reply to the Austrian 
 Ambassador. It is a lengthy document, conceding 
 much; modifying some points; in others suggesting 
 international arbitration; in one instance asking for 
 legal proofs of charges against accused persons — 
 altogether a document warranting calm and delib- 
 erate consideration. Yet Baron von Giesl, the Aus- 
 trian Minister, digested it, returned to his Legation, 
 packed his luggage, removed the archives and was 
 seated in the train within forty minutes. This then 
 is the time-table for July: Secret Police enquiry 
 twenty-five days ; diplomatic intercourse one hundred 
 and twenty hours ; considering the Serbian reply and 
 removal of Legation, forty minutes ! 
 
 It has been urged by Count Albert Mensdorff, the 
 Austrian Ambassador in London, that Serbia might 
 have done something in those thirty days to pro- 
 pitiate Austria and justify herself by a voluntary 
 offer to institute an enquiry into the crime. It is 
 not quite easy to see how she could have done so. 
 Certainly it would have been her bounden duty to 
 take the initiative had the crime been committed In 
 her own territory, or by her own subjects. It was, 
 however, committed by Austrian subjects in an Aus- 
 trian city. Had Serbia expressed deep contrition, 
 so acknowledging guilt, and made offers of investi- 
 gation, the act would have been described as that of 
 a criminal, attempting to compound his offence, seek- 
 ing by transparent hypocrisy to escape its proper con- 
 sequences. 
 
 It is said, perhaps with truth, that certain Serbian 
 state officials were concerned in the atrocious crime; 
 but Serbia was not officially aware of that accusa- 
 
SIGNIFICANT SECRECY 151 
 
 Hon until the 24th of July. The information had 
 been elicited from the assassins — not very reputable 
 or reliable witnesses — in the course of a secret in- 
 vestigation, from which Serbia, in common with the 
 rest of Europe, was excluded. When the names of 
 implicated Serbians were mentioned, the Serbian Gov- 
 ernment promised to punish them, with the very 
 proper proviso that proofs of their guilt should be 
 forthcoming. It is hard to see what more any Gov- 
 ernment could have done. 
 
 There is absolutely no evidence that the Serbian 
 Government had foreknowledge of, or complicity 
 with, the crime. The secrecy of the Austrian pro- 
 ceedings alone precludes such a consideration. 
 Could Austria openly have fixed even a vague suspi- 
 cion upon the Serbian Government, how readily 
 w^ould she have done it! The whole world would 
 have been summoned to Serajevo to see the unfold- 
 ing of the hideous plot. Instead of that, the trial 
 was held within closed doors, the Press was excluded; 
 nothing reached the public without the sanction of 
 the official censors. What little did leak out went 
 to show that the deed was committed by young men 
 who grafted anarchical doctrines upon Pan-Serbian 
 enthusiasms; who were not only set to see Serbia 
 greater, but were moved to avenge the tyranny un- 
 der which their fellow-Slavs were groaning in Bosnia- 
 Herzegovina and Croatia. 
 
 If, in murder, the question of motive be Important, 
 it is Austria, not Serbia, that should stand arraigned 
 for the assassination of the Grand Duke. Serbia had 
 nothing to gain, but everything to lose by it. She 
 had her grievances against Austria ; but she was not 
 insane enough to think they could be avenged by 
 the murder of the one man in Austria who had stood 
 her friend in 19 13. She could not hope to repair 
 
152 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 the damage which Austria had done her in the past 
 by giving her the best excuse for inflicting still greater 
 damage. Just recovering from a devastating war, 
 she would not invite another, with a neighbour ten- 
 fold stronger than herself. She was engaged in im- 
 portant railway negotiations, and was making ar- 
 rangements with Montenegro of vital interest to her 
 future. She would hardly choose that moment for 
 incurring the risk of war by participation in a crime 
 which would alienate mankind. 
 
 If we turn to Austria, we shall find a far readier 
 explanation of the death of the Archduke. Revenge 
 is the oldest motive of crime in the history of the 
 world, and this would appear to have been a crime 
 of revenge. This is not the place to tell the story 
 of the ten million Slavonic subjects of the Dual Mon- 
 archy, nor would it be a pleasant story to tell if it 
 were the place. It is a tale of repression and terror- 
 ism which would have disgusted Jeffreys ; of perjury 
 and corruption which would have turned the stomach 
 of Titus Oates. The Press was persecuted, pohtical 
 leaders were threatened, the law courts were de- 
 bauched, the sanctity of the ballot boxes was invaded, 
 and when all this failed the Constitution itself was 
 suspended. It came at last to this that the very 
 school-children revolted and refused to be taught un- 
 der such a reign of terror. Were there no grounds 
 for vengeance here, no materials for crime, even if 
 it took the blind, hateful, and indefensible form of 
 murder? 
 
 The most that can be alleged against Serbia Is 
 this — that to her were turned the eyes of Austria's 
 Serbian helots ; that she stood for their racial ideals ; 
 that, so long as she remained, hope for the future 
 was not dead. That Serbia was not Ignorant of 
 this sentiment Is not to be imagined; to think that 
 
PLOT AGAINST SERBIA 153 
 
 she had no visions of a day — as Germany had vi- 
 sions of a " Day " — when Bosnia, Herzegovina and 
 Croatia might, as the result of a great European up- 
 heaval, be united with Serbia and form an important 
 State, is to suppose her more than human. But to 
 charge her with seeking to attain such ends by the 
 shameful murder of an upright prince, reputedly 
 friendly to her, is to brand her as imbecile. 
 
 Nevertheless that is what Austria set out to do, 
 and has done. Without accepting or suggesting the 
 dreadful suspicion that the murder of the Archduke 
 was committed at the instance, or at least with the 
 tacit connivance of any government, Serbian or 
 other; it is clear that Austria resolved to make the 
 crime an excuse for depriving Serbia of her position 
 as an independent State and as the rallying-point of 
 Pan-Serbian aspirations. She had been long prepar- 
 ing to seize on such an opportunity; and she had re- 
 doubled her preparations of recent years, in the hope 
 that the chance would come as a result of a Balkan 
 war. It is notorious that during the first Balkan 
 war In 19 12 Austria was weighing the chances of 
 a conflict with Serbia and Russia; and that her Gov- 
 ernment was studiously Inflaming the public mind 
 with stories of the shameful maltreatment of the 
 Austrian Consul Prochaska at Prizren — stories 
 which proved to be wholly Imaginary. 
 
 But the plot dates back In reality to 1909. In 
 that year the famous High Treason Trial took place 
 at Agram, when certain Croats were accused of a 
 treasonable Pan-Serbian propaganda. Soon after- 
 wards. Dr. Friedjung, the historian, published an 
 article in which he asserted that the leaders of the 
 Croatian movement were in the pay of the Serbian 
 Government; and that In fact Serbia was promoting 
 and subsidizing revolution In Austria. The docu- 
 
154 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 ments on which this charge was based were given to 
 him by the Austrian Foreign Office. 
 
 Had these documents been genuine, Austria would 
 have had cause for war; but they were not genuine. 
 Dr. Friedjung was sued for libel, and it was estab- 
 lished by proofs which not even an Austrian Court 
 could ignore, that the documents were forgeries, con- 
 cocted in the Austrian Legation at Belgrade. The 
 Austrian Minister in Belgrade, Count Forgach, was 
 openly accused in the Austrian Parliament of being 
 a forger and guilty of the acts of an Agent Provoca- 
 teur, one of the most odious offences of which man 
 can be guilty. 
 
 In most countries such a charge would be enough 
 to drive a man from public life, or in some indulgent 
 societies to consign him to a sphere offering no scope 
 for such peculiar energies. Not so in Austria. 
 Though almost incredible, it is true that Count For- 
 gach was afterwards selected to be one of the chief 
 directors of Balkan policy at the Foreign Office in 
 Vienna. Within a few years of his appointment, 
 Austria has made war upon Serbia, on grounds con- 
 structed by a hidden inquisition, and of which, when 
 besought to do so, she gave no proof whatever. 
 There is a curious and sinister likeness between the 
 methods of 1909 and 19 14, which must strike even 
 the most careless observer. 
 
 Count Forgach was engaged in congenial work 
 during those eventful and historical thirty days imme- 
 diately before this war. There are ugly hints of 
 what preceded them; for the present purpose it is 
 enough to consider the incidents following upon the 
 death of the Archduke. What happened is briefly 
 this. A man, notoriously without scruple, set him- 
 self to make out a case against Serbia. It took him 
 twenty-five days to do it, working like a mole in the 
 
COUNT FORGACH SUCCEEDS 155 
 
 police ceils at Serajevo. These days were occupied 
 in drawing the indictment against Serbia. The ac- 
 cused was given forty-eight hours in which to plead 
 guilty and be sentenced. In forty minutes the judge 
 heard the prisoner's reply, gave it mature considera- 
 tion, returned to his home, packed up his belongings 
 and was on his way to the railway station. It was 
 not for nothing that Count Forgach's previous per- 
 formances had been rewarded, and that he had been 
 encouraged to try again. Once before he had failed; 
 this time he succeeded. 
 
 The case against Austria is deadly, from the cir- 
 cumstances, considerations and evidence already 
 given; but that the murder of Franz Ferdinand only 
 gave Austria courage to do what she had resolved 
 to do In 19 13 if she secured adequate support, is be- 
 yond question; and we shall presently offer the proofs 
 of it. It emboldened her to cross the Rubicon, in 
 which she had already dipped her feet only to shrink 
 back when she found the water very cold. 
 
 During the whole of the pre-war negotiations we 
 find Austria and Germany manoeuvring for a moral 
 vantage-ground; Austria posing as an aggrieved 
 Power, righteously resolved to punish a grave offence 
 and to protect herself from criminal intrigues; Ger- 
 many posing as a loyal friend, whose loyalty was 
 abused by hostile States, and made the implement 
 by which she was treacherously driven into war. 
 Since the war began, however, the line of defence 
 has been modified. Comparatively little is heard 
 about Austria's grievance against Serbia, but very 
 much is heard about the complete innocence of Ger- 
 many. The semi-official apology for Germany's ac- 
 tion. The Truth about Germany, issued under the 
 authority of Prince Biilow and an imposing commit- 
 tee of eminent Teutons, begins with the bold asser-^ 
 
156 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 tion that Germany's love of peace is so strong as 
 to be an Inborn and integral part of the people. In- 
 dividual writers of light and leading in Germany 
 never cease harping on that theme. In their recitals 
 Germany had no aggressive designs, no desire for 
 territorial aggrandisement, no thought of war, no 
 aim or object but to remain at peace with all man- 
 kind. True, she went to war, but unwillingly. 
 True, she broke off negotiations with Russia and 
 France, and struck the first blow at Belgium ; but she 
 only did it as a lonely wayfarer might take the 
 initiative against footpads manoeuvring for advan- 
 tage. Never were nations so misunderstood and 
 maligned as the Teutonic Powers; never in history 
 was there a blacker treachery than that by which 
 these pacific peoples were lured and goaded into 
 strife by the machinations of France, of Russia, and, 
 above all, of Great Britain ! 
 
 How comes it, then, that Austria was planning 
 war against Serbia a year before the murder of the 
 Archduke Franz Ferdinand? That hidden and 
 hideous fact; that black, premeditated crime, without 
 excuse; that intended sacrifice of a small nation 
 which dared to achieve freedom and maintain it 
 against tyranny and force, was revealed to the world 
 by Signor Giolitti in the Italian Parliament last De- 
 cember. In 19 13, Signor Giolitti was Prime Min- 
 ister of Italy. On the 13th of August of that year, 
 the Marquis di San Giuliano, his Foreign Minister, 
 telegraphed to him while he was absent from Rome 
 that he had been informed by Austria of her inten- 
 tion to attack Serbia as a defensive precaution; that 
 Austria had addressed a similar statement to Ger- 
 many; and that she invoked the assistance of Italy 
 under the terms of the Triple Alliance. What was 
 Italy's answer? 
 
SIGNOR GIOLITTI UNFOLDS A TALE 157 
 
 *' Both the Marquis di San Giuliano and I," said Signer 
 Giolitti, " denied such an attack to be a casus foederis, and I 
 told the Marquis di San Giuliano to tell Austria so in the 
 most formal manner, and to urge Germany to dissuade her 
 from a most dangerous adventure. This was done, and our 
 Allies agreed with us." 
 
 No words can exaggerate the significance of this 
 amazing disclosure. It should be ever present in the 
 minds of students of the pre-war negotiations, be- 
 cause it converts much that would otherwise be in- 
 ferential into matters of certainty. It explains the 
 truculence of the Austrian Note to Serbia and the 
 contemptuous indifference with which the Serbian 
 reply was treated. It shows the nature of the " free 
 hand " which Germany gave to Austria, and it dis- 
 pels the mystery hanging over the alleged German 
 efforts to soften the rigour of Austria's attitude. 
 Indeed, at every turn and twist of the negotiations 
 we find the traces of that resolve of Austria " to 
 teach Serbia a lesson " which she had formulated in 
 19 13, but had deferred to a more convenient oppor- 
 tunity, to that time more suited to Germany's pur- 
 poses, when the Kiel Canal would be opened and a 
 better pretext for war would be found. Certainly 
 the incident accounts for the notices of mobilization 
 to Austrian reservists oversea within forty-eight 
 hours of the Archduke's death. It explains also 
 why, in 19 14, Italy declined to see In the action of 
 Serbia such aggression as would entitle her Allies 
 of the Triple Alliance to claim her support. She 
 knew too much. 
 
 Finally, Signor Giolitti's disclosure dissipates once 
 and for all the theory, so sedulously propagated, 
 that Germany and Austria are injured innocents, 
 dragged by the unscrupulous Entente into courses 
 abhorrent to their Sunday-School doctrines and their 
 
158 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 own unsophisticated pacifism. The plain truth is 
 that Austria and Germany appealed to Europe un- 
 der false pretences in 19 14. Shamelessly cloaking 
 the black purposes and designs of 19 13, carried on 
 to 19 14, they succeeded in having the Powers ne- 
 gotiate in ignorance of them. Had England, France 
 and Russia known what had been contemplated in 
 
 19 13, there would have been shorter parleying with 
 the German States. They would not have waited 
 until July 25th to express their views; they would 
 have had no illusions; there would have been no 
 half measures. Sir Edward Grey knew nothing of 
 Austria's proposal to Italy until Signor Giolitti re- 
 vealed it. If he had known, it may be that when 
 M. Sazonoff asked him to declare Britain's solidarity 
 with Russia, he would not have refused. He cer- 
 tainly would not have asked Germany to plead with 
 Austria. A stronger, firmer tone might perchance 
 have dissuaded the Germanic Allies from war in 
 
 19 14, as Italy's refusal had done a year before; 
 though it is not a likely supposition, and has only 
 to support it Herr von Bethmann-Hollweg's hys- 
 terical surprise and agitation when he learned from 
 Sir Edward Goschen that England would fight. 
 However that may be, this is sure, that in July, 19 14, 
 Germany and Austria were determined on war; and 
 war they have on terms and with results unexpected 
 by them. 
 
CHAPTER VIII 
 
 BRITISH POLICY, EUROPEAN AND COLONIAL 
 
 Having reviewed the various Influences which have 
 for many years been moulding German policy; hav- 
 ing glanced at the events in Southeastern Europe 
 which have made those smouldering causes flame 
 Into war; It remains to enquire briefly what course 
 England had been pursuing throughout the last gen- 
 eration. Russia and France may be passed by for 
 two reasons : because the justification of their action 
 may be left to their own spokesmen, oflUcIal and 
 otherwise; also because Great Britain has been rep- 
 resented by the enemy as the villain of the piece. 
 Treachery and perfidy are the least of the crimes 
 of which she is accused in the Potsdam court of 
 morals. The world is informed that she has long 
 been planning a general war, with the viciously sordid 
 Intention of destroying a great commercial rival; of 
 securing to herself beyond assault her vast terri- 
 tories, mostly acquired by fraud, and of which she 
 makes no proper use. For this purpose, we are 
 told, and with an army of two hundred thousand 
 men, she seized the Serbian crisis as an excuse for 
 waging war on the Continent of Europe against a 
 nation with millions of trained soldiers and many 
 great armies. Callous to the sufferings she would 
 cause, she prodded Russia into mobilization, fright- 
 ened France into action, and, for her own base ends, 
 did not hesitate to lure helpless Belgium to destruc- 
 tion. 
 
 It is averred by the heroes of Aerschot, DInant, 
 
 159 
 
i6o THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 Malines and Louvaln, who destroyed men, women 
 and children non-combatants and mercilessly slew 
 thirteen priests in one diocese alone/ that this stark 
 outrage on mankind is only the climax of Great Brit- 
 ain's long career as pirate, highwayman and inter- 
 national bully. The pious framers of the policy of 
 " frightfulness " ; of organized official atrocity on 
 a huge scale and with scientific precision and pre- 
 arrangement; declare that Great Britain has not only 
 been the main obstacle to the spread of a great sav- 
 ing Kultur, but had become the one permanent men- 
 ace to the world's peace. The arraignment contains 
 the painful revelation that there is no international 
 immorality which she would not commit to gain her 
 own ends. No doubt before the war is over, Ger- 
 many will announce that Great Britain instigated the 
 murder of Franz Ferdinand. 
 
 It is, however, true that in former days Germans 
 of great authority admitted that England, with her 
 maritime dominance, was a not unimportant factor 
 in keeping the peace of the world; some even agreed 
 quite benevolently that the Entente, by counter- 
 balancing the Alliance, served the same end. All 
 that is forgotten, or else is abandoned as false theory, 
 refuted by the events of 19 14. Now it is declared 
 that the events of July and August, 19 14, proved 
 England's love of peace to be in keeping with the 
 extent to which her sea power remained unmenaced; 
 and that her adhesion to the Triple Entente was 
 only a continuation of her old policy of getting some- 
 one else to fight her battles for her on the Con- 
 tinent, while she kept the shop open at home behind 
 dark walls of water and steel. 
 
 In the study of events immediately preceding this 
 
 1 See Pastoral letter of Cardinal Mercier, Archbishop of Malines 
 and Primate of Belgium. 
 
COLONISATION BY DISCOVERY i6i 
 
 war It may be well to Inquire briefly If there Is any 
 foundation for the charge that Britain has really 
 been a menace to peace; and whether her steadfast 
 policy has been a course of subterranean effort to 
 stir up strife among the nations for her own ad- 
 vantage. The British are a lighting people. Were 
 it not so they would not be where they are to-day. 
 They are not, however, a martial race. In the past 
 England has waged a few unnecessary wars, and 
 some of them need justification. Speaking broadly, 
 however, it may be said that since the passing of 
 Mediae valism and Its knight-errantry, her wars have 
 not been of her own seeking. Sometimes she fought 
 In pure self-defence, as In 1588; sometimes she was 
 drawn into the great religious struggles that fol- 
 lowed the Reformation, as under William III ; more 
 often she has lent her aid to maintain a political 
 equilibrium in Europe — that balance of power 
 whose overthrow, Germany's soldier philosopher 
 says, Is essential to the fulfilment of Germany's am- 
 bitions. 
 
 That England reaped advantage from such wars 
 as these is undeniable; that from them she emerged 
 a great World-Power is true; that she entered them 
 in order to become a great World-Power cannot be 
 sustained in argument or by the facts of history. 
 As to some of the British Dominions, of course, no 
 proof of Innocence is necessary. They came to her, 
 like Australia and New Zealand; like the East and 
 West African Colonies; like twelve of the thirteen 
 colonies which formed the original United States 
 (New York being the exception), as the result of 
 discovery or settlement, and by the same right as 
 Spain held her American territories and Portugal 
 holds her African possessions to-day; as Germany 
 acquired Togoland, the Cameroons, New Guinea, 
 
i62 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 the Marshall Islands, and German East Africa and 
 Southwest Africa. 
 
 At the close of the seventeenth century England 
 was still, to all intents and purposes, merely a Euro- 
 pean Power. She had trading stations here and 
 there, as in India; she had a few small settlements 
 on the coast of America. She had not set herself 
 to acquire over-sea dominions as had Spain and 
 Portugal; her disputes with such Powers were mainly 
 devoted to getting equal trading rights. Her army 
 was small; her navy was strong, but not of over- 
 whelming strength; and it was hard set to hold its 
 own against the powerful fleets of Holland or France. 
 Since the days of Drake, she had held aloof from 
 military enterprises over sea. Then came a change-. 
 In the course of one hundred years of almost constant 
 war, despite the loss of her American Colonies, she 
 became the greatest Empire in the world. ,Yet, of 
 all the wars in which she engaged during that time, 
 only one — that of 1737 — had its motive cause out- 
 side the Continent of Europe, and that, curiously 
 enough, was the only war in which England gained 
 no territorial advantage. It is, perhaps, significant 
 that this war, which was almost entirely commercial 
 in its origin and object, is regarded as the least 
 defensible of all, even by its own authors.^ The 
 other struggles of that century had their origin in 
 policies with which England was only indirectly con- 
 cerned. The revolution of 1688 and the accession 
 of William III drew her into the European vortex as 
 an opponent of Louis XIV. Blenheim, Ramillies 
 and Oudenarde gave her Gibraltar, Nova Scotia and 
 Newfoundland; but they were not fought in order 
 to secure a footing in the Mediterranean or at the 
 mouth of the St. Lawrence. 
 
 In 1757 Austria and France, meditating an attack 
 
CANADA AND INDIA 163 
 
 upon Prussia, brought England into the field in aid 
 of Frederick the Great when he was menaced with 
 destruction. The noise of the Seven Years' War 
 echoed through the whole world. Because Fred- 
 erick's men were fighting in Central Europe for 
 Silesia and to preserve the balance of power, " black 
 men fought on the coast of Coromandel, and red 
 men scalped each other by the great Lakes of North 
 America." ^ Clive made England predominant in 
 India, Wolfe made her mistress of North America 
 by defeating France. The popular idea, however, 
 that Canada was gained by conquest is entirely 
 wrong. Of the seven Canadian Provinces only two 
 — Nova Scotia and Quebec — were won in war. 
 New Brunswick and Ontario were colonized by the 
 United Empire Loyalists fleeing from the Revolution 
 which made the United States; the Western Prov- 
 inces were peacefully reclaimed from the wilderness. 
 The French Islands In the West Indies were taken, 
 only to be restored to France under the Treaty of 
 Paris In 1763. 
 
 And here a word may be said as to the origin of 
 the Indian Empire. War emerged after initial 
 peaceful settlement and secured territory and control, 
 l3ut not war of England's seeking. Bombay fell to 
 England as part of the dower which Catharine of 
 Braganza brought to Charles II. As In the case of 
 France, Holland and Portugal, It was trade which 
 brought England to the East. Commerce, not con- 
 quest, was the aim of the East India Company. For 
 more than a century Its territorial possessions con- 
 sisted of a few trading stations, and so they would 
 have remained but for the ambitions of Duplelx and 
 the fall of the Moguls. It needs only to remember 
 
 2 Macaulay's Essay on " Frederick the Great." 
 
i64 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 what a mere handful of men won the battle of Plassy, 
 and that they were led by a civilian clerk, to prove 
 how httle dreams of conquest animated England's 
 pioneers in India. When Dupleix attempted to win 
 India for France, England was driven to assert her 
 interests; when later she became the dominant Euro- 
 pean factor in the peninsula, the chaotic politics and 
 conditions of the native States led her ever onwards. 
 Not all, perhaps, that has been done in India has 
 been well done; but England at least is innocent of 
 the charge that she entered that country with the 
 design of conquering it by the sword. 
 
 Then came the Wars of the French Revolution. 
 Again England was swept into the European vortex 
 for no other reason than that her very existence was 
 threatened by the ambitions of Napoleon. When 
 the great struggle ended, she had again enlarged her 
 Empire. Though she did not even then keep all she 
 had won, she was securely estabhshed at Mauritius, 
 at Ceylon and the Cape. 
 
 The manner In which the two latter dependencies 
 came to her is an instructive illustration of the way in 
 which the British Empire grew. They were Dutch 
 Colonies, and Dutch Colonies they would have re- 
 mained In 1 8 15, had not Holland, by choice, or 
 under compulsion, thrown In her lot with France. 
 The Cape was a strategic position of the first im- 
 portance to the holders of India. As such England 
 naturally occupied It during the war; but when peace 
 was made In 1805, she restored It to Holland, Im- 
 portant as It was. Again Napoleon declared war, 
 again Holland stood by him, again England occupied 
 Cape Town; but this time she stayed there, although 
 she actually paid £6,000,000 to Holland as com- 
 pensation for the loss of her territory. In like 
 manner Great Britain also restored to the Dutch the 
 
VACILLATING COLONIAL POLICY 165 
 
 island of Java, which she had occupied in 18 11 — a 
 possession of great possibihties. This in itself will 
 help to show how little of ultimate design went to the 
 creation of England's Colonial Empire or entered 
 into her original calculations. It came to her not 
 as the result of well-laid plans, but as spoils won in 
 wars begun by other States for their own purposes; 
 or from the necessity of protecting and organizing 
 what her trader had accomplished, as has been the 
 case with Germany in Samoa. England's colonies 
 were, so to say, washed to her feet by the spreading 
 ripples of great storms, in the unchaining of which 
 she had little part. So little, indeed, did wanton 
 territorial ambition colour England's policy, that she 
 has more than once embarrassed herself by her 
 apathy. Her want of enterprise in the Pacific, which 
 led her to give Germany a footing in New Guinea 
 and to acquiesce in the German annexation of 
 Samoa, led to friction between AustraHa and the 
 Mother Country. Her vacillation in South Africa, 
 as when, against the wish of the Dutch inhabitants, 
 she gave up the Orange River State and, later, the 
 Transvaal, was the parent of many woes. In 1865 
 she seriously meditated handing over her West Afri- 
 can possessions to the native inhabitants, and only 
 desisted when she found them unfitted for independ- 
 ence. Indeed, through a considerable part of the 
 nineteenth century, the Imperial idea languished, and 
 colonies were regarded as a burden. 
 
 It would be difficult to point to any war deliberately 
 promoted by England for territorial aggrandisement, 
 such as those of Louis, or Frederick, or Napoleon; 
 infinitely less for those internal reasons which have 
 moulded the policy of Germany. This is beyond 
 question true as regards British policy since the open- 
 ing of the Napoleonic Wars. During the nineteenth 
 
i66 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 century, if we except the incident of Navarino, her 
 only appearance on a European battlefield was in the 
 Crimea. Whatever may have been the wisdom of 
 that enterprise, England at least neither gained in ter- 
 ritory nor in internal peace or stability by it; while it 
 is certain that there would have been no war at all 
 but for Russia's profound belief in the unwillingness 
 of England to fight. So great was the general belief 
 in the pacific nature of British policy that it actually 
 precipitated the war. It is noteworthy that belief 
 in British pacifism was not the least of the causes 
 which induced the present struggle. 
 
 The second half of last century saw the further 
 growth of pacifism in England; a sentiment which, 
 on one occasion at least — when to an extent morally 
 bound to help, she watched the dismemberment of 
 Denmark — did her no credit at all. She developed 
 a taste for arbitration, which many Englishmen dis- 
 trusted and which seldom resulted to her advantage. 
 
 German statesmen revile arbitration because in 
 their view it impedes the advancement of the 
 stronger States with the great moral ideas like Ger- 
 many; but England submitted to it with entire readi- 
 ness in her dispute with Portugal over African ter- 
 ritory and in her controversy with Russia over the 
 North Sea incident. Take again the attitude of 
 Great Britain during the American War of Seces- 
 sion, and measure it by the Teutonic standard. Brit- 
 ish sympathies were divided. Even the majority 
 who believed in the Northern cause, were filled with 
 admiration for the gallantry of the South. There 
 was a strong party, with the then greatest English 
 statesman at its head, which thought that the Con- 
 federate States would achieve their object. There 
 were old antagonisms between the two countries. 
 America was already beginning to prove herself a 
 
ENGLAND TURNS THE OTHER CHEEK 167 
 
 formidable commercial rival. There was ground of 
 complaint against the Government of Washington in 
 the Mason and Slidell affair; our Consuls had been 
 treated none too well; Mr. Seward's attitude was un- 
 friendly and his diplomacy awkward and irritating. 
 England might well have taken offence, and France 
 would have been ready to coalesce. General Bern- 
 hardi regards it as an " unpardonable blunder from 
 her point of view " that England did not seize the 
 opportunity of assisting the seceding States to break 
 up the Union; thus removing a formidable political 
 and commercial rival from her path. That, ap- 
 parently, is what Germany would have done; but 
 what England did was to accept a by no means hum- 
 ble explanation, and to pay an enormous sum for 
 damage inflicted by the Alabama. 
 
 There were other incidents of those fifty years, 
 the treatment of which by successive British admin- 
 istrations led not a few — foreigners as well as Eng- 
 lishmen — to think that Great Britain was making 
 too much of a gospel of turning her cheek to the 
 smiter. Even the United States, it was said, whose 
 pacific doctrines have been ever above question, had 
 not tamely passed over the sinking of the Maine ■ — 
 provocation not a whit more serious than affronts to 
 which Great Britain had more than once submitted. 
 The one big war In which England engaged during 
 this period was the result of handing back to the 
 Boers, after the battle of Majuba, a Province which 
 they had themselves voluntarily surrendered to Great 
 Britain as a refuge from bankruptcy and the native 
 menace. Because she had pushed pacifism too far, 
 she had to use a quarter of a million men in 1900 to 
 do what she might have done with a tenth part of the 
 number twenty years before, had it been necessary. 
 
 Neither then, nor in her efforts to reduce arma- 
 
i68 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 ments since the beginning of this century, was Great 
 Britain given credit for her peaceful endeavours. 
 She did not, it was said, seek peace and ensue it for 
 its own sake ; she was still at heart the buccaneer, but 
 had lost the daring which redeemed the buccaneer's 
 faults. She had, indeed, lost her stomach for fight- 
 ing, her old spirit had been corroded by soft Hving 
 and sordid commercialism. War would dislocate 
 trade and commerce ; even if she were not mixed up 
 in it she would suffer in her business. To the minds 
 of the Camarilla, these were the true motives of 
 British policy, conceal them as she might under a 
 snuffling hypocrisy. 
 
 It is not necessary to argue these propositions, to 
 claim for England any double endowment of original 
 virtue, to assert that she is much better, or to admit 
 that she is any worse, than other great nations. 
 Whatever her motives may have been, the fact re- 
 mains that the policy of England was a policy of 
 peace. 
 
 Let us now consider the relations of Great Britain 
 and Germany from the time when it became apparent 
 that the great continental Power, chafing against the 
 compression of her European position, had stepped 
 into the wider arena of world politics. That epoch, 
 as has been said, opened with the accession of Wil- 
 liam II, and the fall of Prince Bismarck; but its real 
 activity did not begin until some six years later, when 
 Germany began to show aggressive tendencies in the 
 field of colonial expansion, concerning which Bis- 
 marck had said to Busch, his Boswell, " I want no 
 colonies. They would only serve to provide places 
 for certain persons." But the momentous date was 
 the 27th of November, 1897, when Admiral von 
 Tirpitz introduced his famous Navy Bill. In them- 
 selves the original proposals were not formidable. 
 
FIRST GERMAN NAVY BILL 169 
 
 Seven ships of the line and two large and seven small 
 cruisers were to be constructed by the end of 1904. 
 There were, however, attendant circumstances which 
 made the enterprise significant. The Kaiser had sent 
 his famous telegram to President Kruger only a few 
 months before; while Prince Biilow informs us that 
 about the time that Germany began to build her fleet, 
 she established herself at Kiao Chou. A few months 
 later she concluded the Shantung Treaty with China, 
 which Prince Biilow regards as, " One of the most 
 significant actions in modern German history," secur- 
 ing for Germany " a place in the sun In the Far East, 
 on the shores of the Pacific Ocean, which have a 
 great future before them." 
 
 All this was, as the ex-Chancellor says, so " sig- 
 nificant " that a few words upon it here will be in 
 place. The German taxpayers, already supporting 
 a huge army, were not passionately set on having a 
 big navy as well. In 1896 the Reichstag had re- 
 jected proposals to increase the fleet. In order to 
 carry Admiral von Tirpitz's bill it was necessary to 
 *' ginger-up " the German people. We are naively 
 informed by Prince Biilow how it was done. The 
 people were to be pointed to a new goal, a Manoa, 
 a place in the sun; and there was to be some twist- 
 ing of the British lion's tail; though this was to be 
 done carefully to avoid arousing that animal's sus- 
 picions. So " with great trouble and after a long 
 fight " the War Lords were " lucky enough to con- 
 vince the commonalty of the usefulness and necessity 
 of a positive colonial policy." Singularly enough 
 this was achieved under the administration of Herr 
 Dernburg who, to the American people, has denied 
 with indignation that Germany " ever attempted to 
 get a World-Empire," still less to get it by war or 
 conquest. 
 
I70 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 In all this there Is no suggestion that the new fleet 
 was to hold such colonies as Germany already pos- 
 sessed, or to keep the sea-ways open for her com- 
 merce. The policy was positive, one of annexation 
 and menace; and the menace was to Great Britain: 
 the radiant places could only be got at her expense. 
 German colonies could have nothing whatever to 
 fear from France or Russia; yet, in 1900, only three 
 years after the adoption of the Von Tirpitz pro- 
 gramme, and before it was half completed, a new 
 Navy Law was passed, by which the German navy 
 would be well-nigh doubled. It was the Kaiser's re- 
 ply to the Tsar's proposal for a limitation of arma- 
 ments; and it was made at the moment when Britain 
 was engaged in the South African War. 
 
 Those early years when the German navy was in 
 swaddling clothes were full of grave anxieties for 
 Prince Biilow. From the glimpse of them which he 
 has allowed us, can be fairly accurately judged what 
 the action of Germany would have been had she been 
 in England's place. She would not have let herself 
 be hoodwinked, nor would she have allowed the 
 menace to grow unchecked. The moulders of Ger- 
 man policy ^ regard it as a maxim that it is the moral 
 duty of a State to its citizens to begin a war when 
 its enemies force it to make warlike preparations 
 which it cannot support; or when its rival seems likely 
 to obtain a lead not easily to be overtaken. Had 
 Germany been in England's place, she would have 
 struck while her enemy's navy was weak. German 
 statesmen must have thought England's failure to do 
 so a blunder as great as her neglect of the oppor- 
 tunity to shatter the United States during the War of 
 Secession. 
 
 3 Bernhardi, Germany and the Next War, p. 53. 
 
GRASPING THE TRIDENT 171 
 
 There were those in England who thought that 
 such a course might be wise. They recalled how 
 England had attacked the Danish fleet at Copen- 
 hagen as a precautionary measure, and they pointed 
 out that the new menace was greater than the old. 
 The Danish fleet at worst was only intended as a 
 reinforcement of an enemy's power, and would not 
 have been a reinforcement of overwhelming strength ; 
 but here was a navy growing to an extent wholly dis- 
 proportionate to its overt purpose. A very modest 
 fleet could have safeguarded German commerce and 
 German colonies ; in fact her commerce had advanced 
 by leaps and bounds when she had practically no navy 
 at all. No one coveted her possessions abroad. In- 
 deed, it was after she had begun her programme of 
 naval construction, that Great Britain and America 
 had given her Samoa; vv^hile we had not thwarted 
 her annexation of islands in Polynesia or the acquisi- 
 tion of territory in Africa. For all her purposes a 
 fleet as strong as that of France would be sufficient. 
 She wanted more, however; hers was a wider aim. 
 For years Treitschke had preached to his students 
 at Berlin that a colonial Empire and maritime dom- 
 inance was the goal of Germanic development; and 
 the then Crown Prince William and many notabilities 
 of the Empire had thronged his lecture-room. The 
 Kaiser did not forget the lessons of his earlier days. 
 It was his ambition to grasp the trident which, as 
 will be noticed, he holds well sheltered in harbour 
 and not on the open sea. 
 
 Observers in England argued that such preten- 
 sions were incompatible, not only with the safety of 
 the British Empire, but with the very existence of the 
 United Kingdom itself. Deprived of her navy, 
 Germany might lose her colonies, which were value- 
 less, but she would still remain a great and powerful 
 
172 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 Empire. Without her navy, the Island home of the 
 British Empire would be nothing more than a be- 
 leaguered fortress, doomed to surrender to any as- 
 sailant after six months of misery, without a shot 
 being fired. The British fleet was literally the bul- 
 wark and stay of every British citizen. If, as Ger- 
 many now asserts, strategical necessity can excuse the 
 violation of every code of honour, how much more 
 might the law of self-preservation have justified the 
 forcible limitation of Germany's naval preparations? 
 Strong as were these arguments, they did not suf- 
 fice to overcome the old British doctrine of live and 
 let live ; they did not even convince a very strong sec- 
 tion that there was any real or grave danger. Many, 
 who admitted that Germany's naval poHcy exceeded 
 the necessities of defence, held that she was entitled 
 to her ambitions, and that it would be Immoral to 
 attempt to thwart them until they had blossomed into 
 actual aggression. The main body of the pacifists 
 denied that Germany had any ambitions or designs 
 of aggression at all. True, the language of the Em- 
 peror smacked of ambition, but allowance must be 
 made, they said, for the exuberance of a ruler in the 
 raw vigour of life and not without a decorative sense 
 and taste. The Navy League and Count Reventlow 
 talked big, but they were driven to their verbal ex- 
 cesses by the pronounced peaceful instincts of the 
 German people. Bernhardi was only a brilliant sol- 
 dier, wrapped up In his profession, and therefore 
 bellicose. As for the professors, — It was well 
 known what professors are; always striving after 
 some new thing, faddists evolving Impossible the- 
 ories; men who, like Benedict, must still be talking 
 though nobody heeds them. The Germans were 
 wise in all things, except In keeping so many soldiers 
 and building so many ships; and, after all, that was 
 
IGNORING THE MENACE 173 
 
 only because they did not possess a really democratic 
 constitution. Once the people got control — it was 
 to be observed how Socialism was growing ! — the 
 Krupps, the militarists and the professors would have 
 to retire into seclusion. The best way of helping the 
 innate pacifism of the Germans to assert itself would 
 be to show we had no unworthy suspicion of them; 
 and to set them a good example by cutting down our 
 naval estimates; or, perhaps better still, by shutting 
 down our arsenals and dockyards altogether. Pac- 
 ifism could no further go. 
 
 Although this last wild proposal was confined to 
 a few extremists, the idea of a reduction of naval 
 expenditure received great support; it even became 
 the avowed policy of the Liberal Party in England. 
 Circumstances prevented the attainment of their de- 
 sign; but they steadily endeavoured to mould those 
 circumstances to its attainment. That a good ex- 
 ample might be set to other nations the Government 
 even went so far as to reduce its own estimates. 
 
CHAPTER IX 
 
 WHAT DID ENGLAND DO FOR PEACE? 
 
 With the accession of the Liberal Party to power in 
 England at the end of 1905, the relations between 
 Great Britain and Germany entered upon a new 
 phase. Hitherto England had been content to go 
 her own way, pursuing a policy of national defence, 
 based upon a proportionate two-power preponder- 
 ance of naval strength. This had long been accepted 
 as the minimum of security; but it had become in- 
 creasingly difficult to maintain with the growth of the 
 German navy. With this great naval strength, how- 
 ever, England had sought to avoid giving or taking 
 offence; she had, excepting in the Crimean War, 
 steered clear of European conflict for a century. At 
 the same time she had been much occupied in adjust- 
 ing differences between other Powers ; never attempt- 
 ing to base her own naval and military policy on ab- 
 stractions, or to influence unduly the policy of other 
 nations. Indeed, relying on her insular position, she 
 had effectively abstained from international agree- 
 ments. 
 
 When the Liberal Government took office they in- 
 herited a well-defined naval programme. Consist- 
 ently with their former protests against " unproduc- 
 tive " expenditure on armaments, they resolved, and 
 entered upon a policy of retrenchment; they sought 
 to make arrangements with Germany which would 
 enable them to combine economy with national se- 
 curity. Their first step was to present reduced 
 Naval Estimates in March, 1906; but in the same 
 
 174 
 
ENGLAND REDUCES NAVAL PROGRAMME 175 
 
 month Germany amended her Navy Law of 1900 
 — which itself doubled the Von Tirpitz programme 
 of 1897 — by adding six large cruisers to her fleet. 
 
 A government less honest in its desire for peace 
 might well have seen in this act a reason, perhaps an 
 excuse, for abandoning professions which had well 
 served their electoral purposes, but which also repre- 
 sented the long-sustained and expressed poHcy of 
 their party. The Government of Sir Henry Camp- 
 bell-Bannerman, however, refused to be diverted 
 from their pacific aims. Their reply to the increase 
 of the Germ.an naval programme was, in July, 1906, 
 to put forward amended Naval Estimates which re- 
 duced the March programme 25 per cent, in battle- 
 ships, 33 per cent, in submarines, and 60 per cent. 
 in ocean-going destroyers. Their professed reason 
 for this bold step was declared to be the invitation 
 of the Tsar to the Powers for another conference on 
 the reduction of armaments. The failure of the 
 previous conference gave little hope for the second; 
 but, that nothing should be left undone to increase 
 the chances of success, England resolved to prove 
 her own sincerity; to give a lead to her neighbours 
 and rivals by reducing her own rate of shipbuilding 
 actually below what had been, by her First Lord of 
 the Admiralty, represented as a fair margin of 
 safety. 
 
 The step was sensational and apparently gallant, 
 but it was not politics; and, as was prophesied by 
 many critics, it proved futile and even dangerous to 
 British interests. The policy failed completely. It 
 became an error which Great Britain never quite re- 
 paired. So far from moving Germany to respond 
 v/ith a similar measure of curtailment, it gave her an 
 opportunity to reduce the lead of England; and she 
 seized it. The Kaiser refused to hear of disarma- 
 
176 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 ment in any degree, or of anything that restricted the 
 will and ambition of Germany. He thought the 
 Conference nonsensical, and roundly declared that 
 If disarmament was to be on Its agenda Germany 
 would stay outside. He was aiming at naval 
 strength as an instrument of diplomacy, as a symbol 
 of national strength, as a " big stick " to be used 
 when "the Day " was come. 
 
 Nevertheless, Sir Henry Campbell-Bannerman 
 would not yield without further effort. In an ar- 
 ticle In The Nation^ early In 1907, he pleaded that 
 a subject so urgent as the reduction of naval and mili- 
 tary expenditure should not be excluded from the 
 Conference ; and that Great Britain would even make 
 substantial reductions on her 1906 programme if 
 others were willing to follow her. Within a 
 month the answer came from Prince Biilow, that any 
 discussion of such a subject would be unpractical 
 " even If it should not involve risks." This declara- 
 tion he emphasized in March, 1908, by an accelera- 
 tion of the Kaiser's naval programme. This had 
 the effect of Increasing the German navy by four bat- 
 tleships In advance of the original programme. 
 That was the cynical and challenging answer to the 
 British Government's desire, free from ulterior mo- 
 tives, for a reduction of armaments; so lifting the' 
 burden of defence somewhat from the back of the 
 worker In every country of Europe. 
 
 At this point England took alarm. Experts be- 
 gan to calculate how soon, at the then rate of pro- 
 gression, the German navy would become a really 
 formidable and dangerous rival of the British. It 
 was no longer a question of building against two 
 Powers. It was a case of preserving a superiority 
 over one Power, almost at England's very door. 
 Other nations might exist and flourish without marl- 
 
ENGLAND TAKES ALARM 177 
 
 time power; in her position, with a vast mercantile 
 marine which had to carry out her manufactures and 
 bring back her food and raw material, it was life or 
 death. Not looking forward to taking part in a 
 war on the Continent, she had never sought to form 
 a great standing army; but a navy of preponderating 
 strength was imperative. Every man in the country 
 knew this, as all our island people had accepted it 
 over the generations in which England was free from 
 naval warfare. In the light of the resolution made 
 by Von Biilow in 1907, the whole policy of naval 
 defence had to be reconsidered, the strategy remod- 
 elled, and the ships redisposed. There were no 
 longer Channel Squadrons, Atlantic Squadrons, and 
 Mediterranean and Home Fleets. The new disposi- 
 tion gave virtually one Fleet only, concentrated in the 
 North Sea to meet the menace there. That policy 
 was inevitable, and it has proved itself wise, as the 
 events of this war have shown. Had it not been 
 adopted, a German army would probably have been 
 occupying England in the autumn of 19 14. 
 
 There were three courses open to Great Britain 
 when the danger became indubitably sure. She 
 might have fought Germany there and then; or she 
 might have met Germany's challenge by largely in- 
 creasing her naval estimates. Again there were 
 many who thought that if England had voted a navy 
 loan of say, £100,000,000, and declared her deter- 
 mination to build eight, ten, or a dozen battleships 
 a year, Germany might have given up a struggle in 
 which the longer purse must inevitably win. But 
 neither of these aggressive methods were adopted. 
 England now tried to meet the trouble and lighten 
 the grievous burden of taxation — as heavy for Ger- 
 many as for herself — by direct negotiation for re- 
 duction of armaments with that country. 
 
178 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 King Edward explored the difficult field in 1908, 
 and, for once, his tactful diplomacy failed. The 
 Kaiser was scornfully obdurate. He saw in the at- 
 tempt at an understanding only that fear VN^hich 
 showed a decline of character and patriotism in Eng- 
 land. In 1909, Sir Edward Grey tried to reach an 
 understanding between the two countries by suggest- 
 ing that the naval attaches of the two countries 
 should be allowed to observe the different stages of 
 battleship construction. Again, far from urbanely, 
 Germany refused. She was resolved to go her own 
 way. None could dispute her right to do so; but 
 it was a way which has led to a world-disaster; for 
 it encouraged her to think that Great Britain was 
 shorn of the character which had made her great; of 
 the will and patriotism which had made her strong; 
 that she was " the lath painted to look like iron "; 
 and that she would neither stand by her friends nor 
 sternly defend herself, if a crisis came. 
 
 She was mistaken, but she went on her way; build- 
 ing ships strenuously; creating situations in interna- 
 tional diplomacy with a growing spirit of confidence 
 and arrogance; trying her ever-growing strength by 
 disturbing the chancelleries of Europe. She over- 
 estimated her success, however, and some suspicion 
 of this fact seems to have entered the mind of the 
 German Government about 1909, when it was found 
 that the Triple Alliance was confronted by the Triple 
 Entente. In 1904 all outstanding differences be- 
 tween France and England had been settled; three 
 years later a similar reconciliation of interests had 
 taken place between England and Russia, greatly to 
 Germany's discomfiture. Great Britain, in harmony 
 with those powerful States, was a different proposi- 
 tion from the Great Britain, separated from them 
 by disputes in Asia, Africa, and America, shut up in 
 
A ONE-SIDED BARGAIN 179 
 
 the splendid isolation of her island home. The 
 German tone, thenceforward, became less emphatic. 
 With the change of Chancellors, in 1909, came op- 
 portunity for a change of policy. The new policy 
 was directed towards detaching Britain from the 
 Triple Entente by suggestions of a naval agreement. 
 It was Prince Bismarck's do lit des once more, and, 
 indeed, German diplomacy never seems to move out 
 of this rut of bribery, the amount of the bribe being 
 in inverse ratio to the thing it buys. Herr von Beth- 
 mann-Hollweg's offer of July, 1909, was drawn on 
 the same lines as his " infamous proposal " of July, 
 19 14, and a similar base suggestion in 19 12. In the 
 latter, England was asked to stand by while Belgium 
 was violated and France crushed, and as a reward 
 was promised " friendly relations " with Germany, 
 freedom from attack till another time undefined! 
 In 1909, England was to enter into an agreement 
 with Germany declaring, first, that neither country 
 contemplated, nor would commit, any act of aggres- 
 sion on the other; again, that in the event of any at- 
 tack upon either England or Germany by a third 
 Powder, or group of Powers, the one not attacked 
 should remain neutral. The result of that arrange- 
 ment would be to tie the hands of England and leave 
 the hands of Germany free in any event. So long 
 as Germany was bound to Austria by an offensive 
 and defensive alliance, there was no necessity for her 
 to take the initiative — Austria could do that for 
 her; and still England would be bound by her bond. 
 So, if Austria went to war with Russia, Germany was 
 bound to assist her. But by the Franco-Russian 
 agreement, France would be bound to attack Ger- 
 many as soon as Russia was assailed by two enemies. 
 By the suggested ingenious arrangement, therefore, 
 England would be bound to neutrality by the aggres- 
 
i8o THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 sion of France on Germany. Not only so, but the 
 proposed agreement with Germany would debar her 
 from protecting the violation of the neutrality of 
 Belgium, or any other neutral State, if it were 
 violated by Germany as the result of aggression by 
 France. Great Britain would thus effectually debar 
 herself from helping her friends in any circumstances ; 
 she would lose all claim to be regarded as their 
 friend ; she would have to sit quietly while those who 
 might help her in her hour of need were destroyed; 
 and she would have bartered away her honour for 
 ever. 
 
 For all this, what was she to get? A reduction 
 of the German navy, a promise that the German 
 naval programme would be abandoned? No. The 
 offer was that the rate of German shipbuilding would 
 be retarded. The naval programme would have to 
 be carried out in its entirety; and the number of ships 
 to be completed in 191 8 would have to remain as 
 fixed by the Navy Law ; but as a great concession, the 
 number annually laid down in the earlier years would 
 be reduced, with a corresponding increase in the last 
 few years of the statutory period. 
 
 Not the most ardent pacifist could have blamed 
 Great Britain had she refused to discuss proposals so 
 one-sided, indeed so offensive to intelligence; so im- 
 possible of acceptance without betraying her friends, 
 smirching her honour, and preparing for her own ul- 
 timate debacle^ when with pride and " the soul 
 possessed of sacrifice " vanished, Germany, having 
 done her work elsewhere, would turn her attention 
 to her hated rival in the North Sea. Yet England 
 did not refuse to discuss even these proposals; for 
 Germany had ever a way of looking at things which 
 was not to be found in the code that gentlemen, and 
 the nations they represent, set for themselves; and 
 
GERMANY CRIES OFF i8i 
 
 this was taken into account. She did, indeed, de- 
 cline to make an agreement which would bind her to 
 neutrahty under all conceivable circumstances; but 
 she was willing to make a declaration that none of 
 her agreements with other Powers had any designs 
 hostile to Germany, and that she herself had no hos- 
 tile intentions, and would cherish none. Her pre- 
 vious attitude towards Germany was sufficient guar- 
 antee of this declaration; but lest that should not be 
 enough, she laboured strenuously to avert war be- 
 tween Russia and Austria over the question of Bos- 
 nia and Herzegovina in 191 1; and she commenced 
 negotiations for the settlement of questions of mutual 
 interest, such as the Bagdad railway. These were 
 conducted to a final arrangement which conceded to 
 Germany very substantial and much-coveted advan- 
 tages. 
 
 Finally, England again approached Germany with 
 a view to the settlement of the naval question, pro- 
 posing a discussion on " temporary retardation " of 
 shipbuilding. The reply to these later parlement- 
 aires is instructive. The German Chancellor 
 promptly withdrew his former promise of a tem- 
 porary retardation in certain circumstances, on the 
 suddenly discovered ground that it was desirable to 
 keep the shipbuilding industry well supplied with 
 orders! As to the suggestion that the naval pro- 
 gramme should not be increased, England was asked 
 what she would give in return ; but, before she could 
 answer, the Kaiser abruptly ended the business by 
 telling the British Ambassador that Germany would 
 never bind herself to a stationary and fixed pro- 
 gramme. A little later — on March 30th, 191 1 — 
 the German Chancellor made a speech in the Reich- 
 stag, in which he said that he considered any attempt 
 to control shipbuilding by agreement was quite im- 
 
i82 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 practicable, and that any such attempt would lead 
 to mutual distrust and perpetual friction. 
 
 Though Germany was unwilling to concede any- 
 thing, however, she still tried to induce England to 
 make a political agreement, desiring that it should 
 be of the nature of a general political formula. Sir 
 Edward Grey pointed out that such an agreement 
 would be more comprehensive and intimate than any 
 agreement, short of alHance, which England had with 
 any other Power; and that it would, therefore, cause 
 grave misunderstanding with France and Russia. 
 Her arrangements with those countries were merely 
 settlements of specific questions, and her friendship 
 with France and Russia did not preclude friendly 
 understandings with Germany. He added that he 
 would gladly see some such arrangement attempted.^ 
 
 In the summer of 191 1 the Agadir incident broke 
 in upon these leisurely and elusive conversations. It 
 had the definite result of showing Germany that Eng- 
 land would not stand idly by in the case of unpro- 
 voked aggression upon France.^ There were, in- 
 deed, some British extremists who thought that we 
 might have seized the opportunity of German intru- 
 sion into Moroccan affairs to settle the naval busi- 
 ness once for all; but that would have had no sub- 
 stantial support in England. It is clear from what 
 Prince Biilow says in Imperial Germany that Ger- 
 many's motive then was entirely one of tentative ag- 
 gression. At the time of the Algeciras Conference 
 he had declared that the question of Morocco was 
 really unimportant to Germany, since her trade 
 amounted to less than £100,000 a year; in his book, 
 however, he adopts another line. Though Germany 
 did not get all she wanted out of the Conference, she 
 
 1 Speech by Sir Edward Grey, March 13th, 191 1. 
 
 2 Speech by Mr. Lloyd George, Mansion House, July 21st, 1911. 
 
THE AGADIR OPPORTUNITY 183 
 
 did manage to assert her right to interfere in inter- 
 national matters, even when she had no interests at 
 stake. In other words, the Kaiser was carrying out 
 his ambition to allow nothing in the world to be done 
 without German intervention! The ex-Chancellor, 
 with an enviable gift for phrases, says that the Con- 
 ference " provided a bell which we could ring " when 
 necessity demanded/^ In other words, Germany had 
 to interfere in Morocco because William II had 
 kindly promised to be the Protector of the three hun- 
 dred millions of Mahommedans who are scattered 
 over the world, and some earnest must be given of 
 his qualifications for the post. 
 
 It was therefore held in some quarters of robust 
 thought that to England had come a fortunate oppor- 
 tunity for smashing the German navy, by taking up a 
 quarrel in which the help of France was certain. 
 Undoubtedly it was a good opportunity, and she 
 would have had not only France but expediency on 
 her side ; but instead of taking the chance, England, 
 with higher purpose and deep desire for peace, 
 laboured successfully to bring about a friendly set- 
 tlement. Indeed, Herr von Bethmann-Hollweg 
 acknowledged the usefulness and sincerity of British 
 efforts ; he even expressed the pious belief that they 
 had materially cleared the way for friendship be- 
 tween England and Germany — at the old price. 
 
 Accordingly, when the Emperor suggested that a 
 member of the British Cabinet should go to Berlin 
 to talk things over, our Government responded with 
 alacrity. Lord Haldane, whose admiration and 
 friendship for Germany made him especially suit- 
 able for the purpose, paid a visit to Berlin on the 
 2nd of February, 19 12. But on January 31st, while 
 
 3 Von Billow, Imperial Germany, p. 100. 
 
i84 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 he was packing his bag in London, the Kaiser was 
 opening the Reichstag and announcing a new Navy 
 Law involving an increased expenditure of £13,000,- 
 000. It is, therefore, not surprising that when Lord 
 Haldane was invited to discuss the terms of an agree- 
 ment of amity between the two countries, he should 
 reply by asking what was the good of making an 
 agreement, if Germany went on increasing her fleet 
 and forcing Great Britain to do the same. There- 
 upon came the old stereotyped answer: without 3, po- 
 litical agreement there could be no naval agreement, 
 and there could be no naval agreement which in- 
 volved reduction of expenditure. Retardation of 
 building perhaps, but reduction. No. 
 
 Even that cheerless pour-parler did not deter Eng- 
 land from making further efforts for an agreement. 
 The British Government offered to sign the follow- 
 ing declaration: 
 
 " The two Powers being naturally desirous of securing 
 peace and friendship between them, England declares that she 
 will neither make, nor join in, any unprovoked attack upon 
 Germany. Aggression upon Germany is not, and forms no 
 part of any treaty, understanding or combination to which 
 England is now a party, nor will she become a party to any- 
 thing that has such an object." 
 
 Still that was not enough for Germany. She held 
 to her aim of dealing a fatal blow to any friendly 
 understanding between England and her friends of 
 the Entente; and she demanded a pledge of British 
 neutrality in the event of Germany being at war. 
 That pledge, for reasons already stated, England 
 would not give; and so the negotiations failed once 
 more. 
 
 England now made her last effort for accommoda- 
 tion and arrangement. In 19 12 and 19 13 Mr. 
 
ENGLAND'S RELIANCE ON SEA POWER 185 
 
 Churchill made his famous proposal for a naval holi- 
 day. If, in any year, Germany decided to relax her 
 shipbuilding programme, England would do the 
 same; by which device, as he put it, relief might be 
 obtained " without negotiations, bargaining, or the 
 slightest restriction upon the sovereign freedom of 
 any Power." Germany, with a steadily growing dis- 
 dain, made no response to the suggestion. There- 
 after, each of the two nations pursued its own way. 
 
 " Yes," some reader may say, " but in all this you 
 forget the essential part of England's poHcy that her 
 navy should exceed that of Germany by a certain 
 ratio. Why should she regard German shipbuild- 
 ing as aggressive to herself, and Germany not take 
 the same view of England's naval programme?" 
 The question is natural, but the answer is not beset 
 with difficulty. Without a powerful navy capable of 
 resisting any attack England could not exist for a 
 year if a powerful enemy decided otherwise. No 
 one regards the large standing armies of the Conti- 
 nental Powers as more than essentially defensive 
 precautions. England has a very small army; curi- 
 ously enough, she has no real standing army at all. 
 A vote of Parhament, or of one House of Parlia- 
 ment, in any one year could put an end to her army, 
 since it has to be renewed annually. Being a purely 
 naval Power, England could never attack Germany 
 on land. If there was war between the two coun- 
 tries, without her navy she could not land a single 
 man on German soil, or fire a shot against a German 
 warship so long as the German fleet remained in 
 harbour. On the other hand, without command of 
 the sea she is open to invasion. Even with a great 
 fleet, it is yet to be proved that she is immune from 
 it. 
 
 This war, begun in 19 14, was not the war against 
 
i86 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 England alone which Germany wanted. Her pres- 
 ent rage, her passionate hatred of England is due to 
 our taking a hand in a war from which we were to be 
 excluded. Our *' treachery " represents our refusal 
 to let France be crushed, and Calais to become a Ger- 
 man port. 
 
 Had England's ambitions been to acquire a larger 
 Colonial Empire, she might, in the spirit Germany 
 has shown, have acquired it at the expense of France 
 in the days of quarrel with that nation, without fear 
 of Germany making common cause against her. 
 Had her object been to limit German expansion and 
 restrict her to the position of a purely European 
 Power, she would have interfered with her develop- 
 ment in the Far East, in the Pacific, or in Africa; 
 she would not have helped to give her a footing on 
 the Congo ; she would not have allowed the German 
 navy to grow in the days when, as Prince Biilow puts 
 it, Germany lay at her mercy like so much butter 
 before the knife. 
 
 England would not grasp the knife ; she was hope- 
 ful, not to say credulous, of German bona fides. She 
 wished to believe that Germany did not seek domin- 
 ion through war, but was a friend of peace. With 
 the Agadir incident, however, Germany's policy was 
 unmasked, and England sat up and saw with clearer 
 eyes. Slowly, defiantly, Germany came into the 
 open. Her publicists began to speak out bluntly and 
 plainly; among them was Herr Maximilian Harden, 
 Editor of Die Zukunft. 
 
 In 19 1 2, at Christiania, on the morrow of the 
 Agadir incident, he thus delivered himself in a 
 speech. 
 
 " The German border will become too narrow for the 
 people. It is the most stupid policy — and, therefore, of 
 
ENGLAND'S PEACEFUL CONSOLIDATION 187 
 
 course, the official policy — to say, ' We are the most peace- 
 able people in the world and so we require the largest army 
 in the world, and a reasonably proportionate navy.' Were 
 it only a question of defending ourselves to an attack 
 from outside, we should not need to expend all these millions 
 in armaments. In order that Germany might become a 
 Great Power, many nations had to bleed — Austria and 
 France, for instance. For that reason alone it is necessary 
 for Germany not to let her weapons rust." 
 
 It is unhappily true that Austria and France had to 
 bleed that Germany might expand In Europe; and 
 that she might expand In the larger world outside, 
 Great Britain would have to bleed and yield up her 
 possessions; for In no other quarter could colonies 
 be secured which could receive large white popula- 
 tions. Yet all the time England kept the peace. 
 Of all the Great Powers, Russia only excepted, Ger- 
 many was the most Immune against onslaught by 
 England; without aggressive Intentions, there was 
 no country, as centuries of history show, with which 
 she need have less cause for quarrel than with Great 
 Britain. 
 
 Why, Indeed, should Britain cherish hostile Inten- 
 tions against any nation? She Is not the "weary 
 Titan " which she had been called so often. The 
 last few months show this at least; that she has lost 
 nothing of the qualities by which she has climbed to 
 greatness. She has, however, long felt that the era 
 of growth had given place to the era of consolidation. 
 That consolidation she sought to achieve by peaceful 
 means. She would weld her Empire by giving the 
 fullest freedom for each State In her Empire to de- 
 velop on Its own lines, and draw near by Its own free 
 will. Unlike Germany, her political genius required 
 no stimulation by the shock of battle. It Is Indeed 
 most true — and we. are thankful for it — that the 
 
i88 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 Mother's danger has brought her children to her 
 side with a spontaneous outpouring of love and 
 loyalty such as the world has never seen; but we 
 would not have welcomed war to be made secure of 
 that. There were other ways of reaching the goal 
 of Imperial consolidation. Since, however, the 
 shock of battle has come, the genius of our race has 
 drunk deep of a new loyalty, understanding and pur- 
 pose; it has marched on. History may yet record 
 the year 19 14 as the real date of the brith of the 
 British Empire; but it will have been made so by 
 the unforeseen opportunity and accident which have 
 been flung down from the skies of fate. The true 
 foundations of Imperial solidarity were laid in peace, 
 and in Peace England desired to build upon them. 
 She was not permitted to do so, and she builds now 
 In another way. War's prodigious activities place 
 new constructive forces In her hands; shake loose 
 from the shores of past caution powerful agencies; 
 and she will now confidently adventure upon new- 
 charted seas of closer union with her own in all the 
 Seven Seas. 
 
CHAPTER X 
 
 CASUS BELLI 
 
 It Is probable that since the beginning of things there 
 has been no week In the history of the world more 
 highly charged with the oncoming storm of great 
 happenings than that which closed the month of July, 
 19 14. So long as men of this epoch have memory, 
 the negotiations which agitated those days will be 
 studied and discussed, and historians of the future 
 will explore them for light upon events which trans- 
 formed the world. The negotiations cannot be 
 studied by themselves. As was said in earher pages, 
 we must go far to find the hidden springs of the great 
 tragedy which began with a murder, revolting the 
 world, and engaging for the afflicted Hapsburg Em- 
 peror the sympathy of every people and every Gov- 
 ernment, Including at least the Government of Serbia. 
 That the Serbian regret was genuine there can be no 
 doubt. Responsible Serbians had a natural repug- 
 nance for such a shameless deed, quickened by fear 
 of its consequences. With the Friedjung forgeries 
 and the Prochaska affair within memory, and recog- 
 nizing that murder might remove a man but could 
 not kill a system, their condemnation of Princlp's 
 hellish act could not lack in sincerity. 
 
 Through the foreign offices and Chancelleries of 
 Europe ran a thrill of anxiety as well as of sym- 
 pathy. The crust covering elemental forces In 
 Southeastern Europe Is very thin, and there were 
 signs that It was giving way. A furious anti-Serbian 
 pogrom broke out in Bosnia and Croatia, Houses 
 
 J89 
 
190 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 were demolished, there were fierce and bloody fights 
 between opposing parties, and lives were lost. In 
 Vienna mobs threatened the Serbian Legation, and, 
 as in the case of the Archduke's murder, the police ar- 
 rangements were so " entirely inadequate," that it 
 seemed as though the Austrian Government were 
 approving spectators of the disorderly excesses. 
 
 The Austrian Press used language of unbridled 
 wrath, as was in great degree natural; but some 
 papers at least deprecated pushing things too far. 
 The Neue Freie Presse said that Austria should not 
 pursue a policy of revenge ; the Neues Pester Journal 
 declared against making the murder of the Archduke 
 the starting-point of a fresh period of friction be- 
 tween Austria and Serbia. 
 
 But strangely enough — and this is important — 
 the German Press was more Austrian than the Aus- 
 trians in its indignation. Within two days of the 
 crime, while the facts remained obscure, when noth- 
 ing was known except some reported confessions of 
 the arrested criminals, the Conservative and Clerical 
 journals of Germany were using language such as 
 had not been heard since the Bosnian crisis. It was 
 as though there had been no proposal on the part of 
 Austria to make war on Serbia in 19 13! The re- 
 sponsibility for the crime was at once fixed on Bel- 
 grade.^ 
 
 It was announced that " Germanism must now 
 make a definite stand." In short, as the Berlin cor- 
 respondent of The Times telegraphed on the first of 
 July, from reading the newspapers it might easily 
 
 iThe German Government in Its White Book seems to adopt 
 the same attitude. Princip is described as a member of a band of 
 Serbian conspirators. He was, in fact, a Bosnian, apd all the per- 
 sons put on trial seem to have been Austrian subjects, since the 
 charge against them was one of treason. 
 
EUROPE WAITS TO SEE 191 
 
 have been imagined that war was certain. The 
 statement was prophetic, though the writer himself 
 refused to entertain the idea. This attitude of the 
 inspired Press of Germany in the first phase of the 
 crisis should be kept in mind when we come to an- 
 alyse the policy of the German Government in its 
 later fateful stages. It is wholly inconsistent with 
 the later doctrine, that the question was one to be 
 settled by Austria and Serbia alone. 
 
 In the diplomatic correspondence published by the 
 various Governments there are no documents cover- 
 ing the first three weeks of July. It is, nevertheless, 
 clear that they were weeks of grave anxiety to the 
 world of diplomacy, not lessened by the fact that 
 the disinterested States were powerless spectators. 
 They knew that the worst might come. True, it was 
 announced that the joint meeting of the Austro-Hun- 
 garian Cabinets on the 7th of July was only con- 
 cerned with domestic measures to repress Pan-Serb 
 propaganda in Bosnia ; but the meeting was preceded 
 by a conference of ministers with the Chief of the 
 General Staff and of the Navy. Still, the next day, 
 Count Tisza made a moderate speech in the Hun- 
 garian Parliament; three days later the Serbian Min- 
 ister in Vienna was without apprehension; while, on 
 the 22nd of July, the day before Austria sent her 
 ultimatum, the Hungarian Premier declared in Par- 
 liament that the situation did not warrant serious ap- 
 prehension or that untoward events were probable. 
 Coming after his speech of the i6th, in which he 
 deplored war as a sad ultima ratio, but adding that 
 every nation should be ready to make war if it as- 
 pired to remain a nation, — as true of Serbia as of 
 Austria — this was a reassuring declaration. ^ Last, 
 but not least, the Austrian Foreign Minister, In con- 
 ference with the Italian Ambassador at Vienna, dep- 
 
192 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 recated the suggestion that the situation was grave, 
 but said that it ought to be cleared up. Indeed, the 
 Russian Ambassador at Vienna, Count Schebeko, in- 
 dulged in a holiday beginning about the 20th of 
 July, and the President and Premier of France had 
 gone to Russia a little while before. It was also 
 satisfactory to learn of Germany's agreement with 
 France and Russia, that the Serbian Government 
 was not responsible for the murder of the Archduke, 
 but that she ought to investigate the matters which 
 led to it and put an end to anti-Austrian propaganda. 
 Still more gratifying was the knowledge that Serbia 
 professed readiness to do what she could and took 
 in good part the advice of Sir Edward Grey to be 
 moderate and conciliatory .^ It was necessary to wait 
 until Austria made her intentions known. They 
 were, however, veiled in an obscurity as dense as 
 that which covered the proceedings of the police in- 
 vestigation, or court martial, in progress at Serajevo. 
 
 So much for the activities of the Powers of the 
 Entente. What was being done by the Powers of 
 the Triple Alliance? We know that Italy was inac- 
 tive, for her Allies kept her entirely in the dark; 
 but we also know there was that being done at Berlin 
 which had a profound influence on after events. 
 Germany " permitted " Austria a free hand.^ She 
 did even more. She formed the opinion "that no 
 civilized country possessed the right to stay the arm 
 of Austria in this struggle." In view of what hap- 
 pened later, it is not too much to assume that she en- 
 gaged to prevent such interference. In effect she 
 accepted a blank bill to be drawn by Austria. 
 
 The German Foreign Minister denies that Ger- 
 many participated in Austria's preparations or took 
 
 2 Introduction to British White Paper. 
 
 3 German White Book, p. 5, 
 
GERMANY GIVES A BLANK BILL ' 193 
 
 any part in her decisions. There are grounds for 
 rejecting this statement. There is every reason to 
 believe that Herr von Tschirscky, the German Am- 
 bassador at Vienna, telegraphed the Austrian ulti- 
 matum to the Kaiser,'* then ostentatiously cruising in 
 the Hohenzollern; and that the document was al- 
 tered by His Majesty. Subsequently some of its 
 terms were made more exacting; but the time-limit 
 was extended.^ 
 
 It is also certain that the terms of the Note were 
 known to certain Governments of the German Em- 
 pire. On July 26th, Herr von Schoen, German Am- 
 bassador in Paris, was smilingly assuring the French 
 Government that Germany had been ignorant of the 
 text of the Austrian Note; but on the 23rd of July 
 the Bavarian Prime Minister had informed M. Al- 
 lize, French Minister at Munich, that he knew the 
 contents of the Note; and he based on that knowl- 
 edge the view that it was one which Serbia would ac- 
 cept.^ It is incredible that Bavaria should have 
 known the terms of this document and the German 
 Foreign Minister remained in ignorance. Germany 
 had given the blank cheque and would have to hon- 
 our it; and it is clear that Austria must have kept 
 informed the Ally without whom she was powerless. 
 Even were we to admit that Germany declined to 
 know what was in the Note — on no other supposi- 
 tion could she have been ignorant of it — it makes 
 her case worse; for this would go to show that she 
 had resolved to fight and was really careless on what 
 pretext war might begin. This theory, indeed, re- 
 ceives some confirmation from the fact that on the 
 27th of July Herr von Jagow told M. Jules Cam- 
 
 4 British White Paper, No. 95. 
 
 5 Dr. Dillon, A Scrap of Paper. 
 
 6 French Yellow Book, Nos. ai and 57. 
 
194 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 bon that " he had not had time " to read the Serbian 
 reply, which had been delivered to him that morn- 
 ingJ No time ! What affairs should keep the Ger- 
 man Foreign Minister from reading a brief docu- 
 ment on which the issues of war depended, and for 
 which Europe had been waiting with bated breath? 
 No time? Or no desire? Is the world an ass? 
 
 On the 20th of July, Sir Edward Grey broke the 
 ominous silence by asking Prince Lichnowsky if he 
 knew what was going on in Vienna. The German 
 Ambassador professed ignorance beyond the fact 
 that Austria meant to take action, and adding that it 
 would be a good thing if Russia would mediate with 
 Serbia. This suggestion conflicts strangely with the 
 view of Herr von Tschirscky, who was surprised 
 that Serbian affairs should interest Russia ; ^ and with 
 Dr. von Bethmann-Hollweg's opinion that Russia 
 had nothing to do with the Austro-Serbian quarrel.^ 
 In fact, only the day after Prince Lichnowsky ad- 
 vocated Russian mediation the German Foreign Min- 
 ister told Sir Horace Rumbold that there should be 
 no outside interference; and he supported this atti- 
 tude by refusing to approach the Austrian Govern- 
 ment. The Governments of Europe were, however, 
 not left long in ignorance of what Austria had de- 
 cided to do. On July 23rd the curtain was raised. 
 The Austrian Note was presented to Serbia. 
 
 When, on the same day. Count Albert Mensdorff, 
 the Austrian Ambassador in London, informed Sir 
 Edward Grey of the general tenor of the Note, the 
 latter does not seem to have been much moved. 
 The British attitude was one of detachment. It was 
 admitted that Austria was under provocation, though 
 
 '^ French Yellow Book, No. 74. 
 8 British White Paper, No. 94, 
 ^ Ibid,, No. 71. 
 
THE FATAL TIME LIMIT 195 
 
 the evidence on which she demanded satisfaction 
 from Serbia was unknown. When it was disclosed 
 it would be time enough to consider the question. 
 So far as England was concerned, the immediate 
 quarrel was between Austria and Serbia; and she had 
 no wish to interest herself in it while it remained a 
 local issue not affecting the general Near-Eastern 
 question. Sir Edward Grey, therefore, told Count 
 Mensdorff that he would express no opinions until 
 he had seen the Note; and he would probably have 
 to take a little time to consider it. 
 
 But when, in reply, he was informed that the time 
 for consideration would be limited, he took alarm.^^ 
 He agreed that the matter should not be allowed to 
 drag on; and that if Serbia seemed dilatory a time- 
 limit might have to be imposed, say, after a few days; 
 but a time-limit should only be used in the last re- 
 sort. If it were imposed now it would probably in- 
 flame Russian opinion, and defeat its own purpose of 
 drawing from Serbia a satisfactory reply. He 
 dwelt upon the " awful consequences " involved in 
 the situation; he explained how not only the French 
 and Russian Ambassadors, but others, had expressed 
 their fears of what might happen, and how he had 
 been asked to impress patience and moderation on 
 Russia. The Austrian demands should therefore be 
 moderate, and there should be time for inquiring 
 into their justifications. Count Mensdorff agreed 
 that the consequences might be grave, but added that 
 all depended on Russia. Sir Edward Grey's reply 
 is one steadily to be borne in mind. He said that 
 in times like these, " It took two to keep the peace 
 just as ordinarily it took two to make a quarrel." 
 
 Sir Edward Grey said this on the assumption that 
 
 10 British White Paper, No. 3. 
 
196 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 Austria wished Serbia to accept her demands and had 
 no intention of provoking war. He did not realize 
 what our Ambassador, at Vienna, realized on the 
 25th of July, that, " The surrender of Serbia is 
 neither expected nor really desired." ^^ He did not 
 suspect that the Austrian Minister at Belgrade was 
 even then preparing for his departure, nor that the 
 Vienna mob would become frantic with delight when 
 the Serbian reply was announced. He could not 
 imagine that, even before the Serbian reply was 
 handed to the Austrian Minister, Herr von Jagow 
 would inform our Ambassador at Berlin that " The 
 Austro-Hungarian Government wished to give the 
 Serbians a lesson, and they meant to take military 
 action." ^^ He did not know that three weeks be- 
 fore that time Austria had issued notices calling re- 
 servists abroad to the colours, and that these notices 
 were even then being received in South Africa. ^^ 
 Finally, with all his astuteness, he did not then grasp 
 the fact that there was a Power behind Austria which 
 desired war from the very first; ^^ or that, when Aus- 
 tria and Russia had, at the eleventh hour, come to an 
 accommodation for more time, and Austria had 
 yielded to it in order to maintain peace, Germany 
 would obdurately declare war.^^ Some of the illu- 
 sions, however, must have been dispelled when he 
 saw the text of the Austrian Note on July 24th. He 
 described it as the most formidable document which 
 he had ever seen presented by one State to another.^^ 
 It is interesting to observe here what Germany 
 thought of the Note. On the 24th of July the Ger- 
 
 11 British White Paper, No. 20. 
 
 ■^^Ibid., No. 18. 
 
 13 Facsimile of this notice in Appendix. No. III. 
 
 1* British White Paper, No. 141. 
 
 ■^^Ibid., No. 161. 
 
 i« British White Paper, No. 5. 
 
AUSTRIA'S NOTE TO SERBIA 197 
 
 man Government informed Sir Edward Grey that it 
 considered, " The procedure and demands of the 
 Austro-Hungarian Government as equitable and mod- 
 erate." ^^ On the same day the German Foreign 
 Minister admitted to Sir Horace Rumbold that, 
 " The Serbian Government could not be expected to 
 swallow certain of the Austrian demands"; and 
 privately added that the Note left much to be de- 
 sired as a diplomatic document.^^ This contradic- 
 tion between Herr von Jagow's written and spoken 
 word is typical of German diplomacy throughout the 
 crisis. It finds a parallel in Dr. von Bethmann-Holl- 
 weg's pledge to respect Belgian neutrality, given the 
 day before Belgium was invaded; and in the broken 
 promise of the Kaiser to the King and to the Prime 
 Minister of Belgium that the neutrality of that coun- 
 try should never be violated. 
 
 On the July 24th diplomatic Europe was in a 
 state of excitement akin to panic. The Austrian 
 Note w^as indeed " formidable " beyond all expecta- 
 tion. It contained demands to which an unqualified 
 assent was impossible. To accede to some of them 
 it would be necessary to introduce legislation. It 
 called upon Serbia to explain the utterances of Ser- 
 bian officials, at home and abroad, after the Serajevo 
 crime, without giving their names or reciting the 
 words used by these officials. Lastly, it called upon 
 Serbia to accept the collaboration of Austrian offi- 
 cials, which was, in effect, a proposal to abrogate 
 Serbian independence.^^ The Note was presented 
 
 IT Ihid., No. 9. 
 
 ^^Ihid., No. 18. 
 
 19 Professor Delbriick, in the Atlantic Monthly for February, 
 191 5, forgetting apparently what his ojfficial countrymen and other 
 apologists have said, frankly declares that in his Ultimatum, Aus- 
 tria demanded " conditions which would have placed Serbia under 
 her permanent control." 
 
igS THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 without indication of the nature of the proposed po- 
 lice inquiry. It would appear that its tone was de- 
 signedly rude. When the Russian Charge d'Af- 
 faires, at Vienna, suggested to Baron Macchio that it 
 was not in accordance with international courtesy to 
 submit grievances without giving time for them to be 
 considered, the Baron replied that " One's interests 
 sometimes exempted one from being courteous." ^^ 
 That Is obviously true if one's Interests lie in breed- 
 ing a quarrel rather than In reaching accommodation. 
 Finally, although forty-eight hours were given to 
 Serbia in which to reply, not more than thirty hours 
 were given to any other Powers for the consideration 
 of the document, Germany alone exempted. It Is 
 even alleged that important telegrams were deliber- 
 ately held back In the Austrian telegraph offices. ^^ 
 
 It is Important to understand what Sir Edward 
 Grey did on this eventful twenty-fourth of July. He 
 wired to Mr. Crackanthorpe at Belgrade, urging 
 Serbia to give Austria satisfaction. He saw the 
 French Ambassador in the morning and the German 
 Ambassador In the afternoon. To both he said that 
 the nature of the Austrian Note made him helpless 
 to exercise any moderating influence on Russia, and 
 that he thought the only chance of effective mediation 
 lay In common action by Germany, France, Italy, and 
 Great Britain. Such a step would enable Austria 
 and Russia, even after both had mobilized and Aus- 
 tria had moved against Serbia, to hold their hands 
 and await the result of negotiations. The co-opera- 
 tion of Germany, however, would be essential. 
 
 On the same day he received from Sir George 
 Buchanan,^^ the British Ambassador at St. Peters- 
 
 20 French Yellow Book, No. 45. 
 
 21 Orange Book, No. 36. 
 
 22 British White Paper, No. 6. 
 
ENGLAND DECLINES INVITATION 199 
 
 burg, a report of an important interview with M. 
 Sazonoff, the Minister for Foreign Affairs. In that 
 interview M. Sazonoff begged England to declare her 
 solidarity with the other Powers of the Entente. 
 He took the view that the extension of the time-limit 
 was the first thing necessary; but he regarded Aus- 
 tria's attitude as designedly provocative. To bring 
 her to a sense of the reality of the position, a state- 
 ment by England that she would throw in her lot 
 with France and Russia was essential. If war broke 
 out England would inevitably be dragged in; by de- 
 claring her intention of going in, war might possibly 
 be prevented. To this Sir George Buchanan replied 
 that he did not think the British Government would 
 take that step, and this reply was approved by Sir 
 Edward Grey on the following day. 
 
 While all this was going on, the Prince Regent of 
 Serbia had telegraphed to the Tsar, saying that Ser- 
 bia would accede to the Austrian demands so far as 
 they did not infringe Serbian independence, and ask- 
 ing His Majesty to interest himself in Serbia's fate. 
 At the same time the Berlin Press was strongly sup- 
 porting the aggressive line taken by Austria. The 
 semi-official Lokal-Anzeiger was particularly violent, 
 describing as fruitless any appeals which Serbia 
 might make to St. Petersburg, Paris, Athens, or 
 Bucharest, and saying that the German people would 
 breathe freely when they learned that the situation 
 in the Balkan Peninsula was to be cleared up at 
 last.23 
 
 On July 25th, Sir Edward Grey was active in in- 
 ducing the Powers to join in an effort for mediation. 
 Without following the negotiations for joint action, 
 hour by hour, their general course must be under- 
 
 23 Orange Book, No. 7. 
 
200 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 stood. From the first, Italy and France were favour- 
 able to the proposal; Russia offered to stand aside 
 while mediation was in progress, though she doubted 
 whether Sir Edward Grey's efforts would be success- 
 ful. *' The key of the situation," said M. Sazonoff, 
 " was to be found in Berlin." ^^ 
 
 He was right. Germany held the key, and she 
 used it to lock the door against peace. Her policy 
 was ambiguous, shifty, disingenuous, and ulterior. 
 Prince Lichnowsky told Sir Edward Grey, on July 
 25th, that he thought Russia and Austria might be 
 able with dignity to accept mediation, to which he 
 was himself favourable. At the same moment Herr 
 von Jagow was informing Sir Horace Rumbold that, 
 if the relations between Austria and Russia became 
 threatening, he was quite ready to fall in with the 
 suggestion of mediation by the four Powers. 
 
 An important event occurred on the 26th: the 
 German Emperor suddenly returned from his Nor- 
 wegian cruise. It is said that the German Foreign 
 Office regretted this step, taken by the Kaiser on his 
 own initiative, fearing that it would cause inconven- 
 ient speculation, unrest, and excitement.-^ If it had 
 had only that effect, it might be passed over. But 
 It did more than cause speculation ; it caused a change 
 of policy. Within twenty-four hours Germany 
 changed front respecting mediation. Prince Lich- 
 nowsky, being in London, was not in real touch with 
 the political camarilla in Berlin. He informed Sir 
 Edward Grey on July 27th — about eighteen hours 
 after the Emperor's return — that the German Gov- 
 ernment accepted " in principle " mediation by the 
 four Powers between Austria and Russia.^^ But Sir 
 
 2* Orange Book, No. 43. 
 
 25 British White Paper, No. 33. 
 
 26 Ibid., No. 46. 
 
ENGLAND URGES MEDIATION 201 
 
 Edward Grey's telegram, containing this information 
 to Sir Edward Goschen, British Ambassador at Ber- 
 lin, crossed a telegram from the latter, telling him 
 that Germany had declined the proposed Confer- 
 ence.2^ 
 
 Here, then, we find the German Government re- 
 fusing on the morning of the 27th what it had 
 accepted on the morning of the 26th, while the Ger- 
 man Emperor had returned to Berlin in the interval. 
 Not even then was Sir Edward Grey discouraged. 
 He informed Germany that if she objected to any- 
 thing in the proposed form of mediation, she was 
 free to suggest an alternative.^^ If she thought a 
 Conference, or a discussion, or even a conversation 
 in London too formal, would she suggest any other 
 means which would counter the risk of war? Medi- 
 ation could come into operation by any means Ger- 
 many thought possible if only she " would press the 
 button in the interest of peace." That was not what 
 Germany desired. Her delusion that Russia would 
 not show fight was being dispelled; and her efforts 
 were quickly directed to limiting the area of con- 
 flict. ^ 
 
 It Is clear that Germany was under the impression 
 in the early part of July, and. Indeed, until negotia- 
 tions had gone far, that the Powers of the Triple 
 Entente would not push matters to war; that they 
 would give way before that last extremity was 
 reached, as they had done in 1909 and in 191 1. 
 She believed that Russia would not fight.^^ On July 
 28th, Austria was convinced that Russia neither 
 wanted war, nor was in a position to make war. On 
 the 26th the German Ambassador at Vienna was 
 
 27 Ibid., No. 43. 
 
 28 Ibid., No. 84. 
 
 29 Ibid., No. 71. 
 
aoa THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 convinced that Russia would stand aside while Aus- 
 tria chastised Serbia; and he also expressed the 
 opinion that France was not at all in a condition to 
 face a war.^^ As for Great Britain, the unbridled 
 anger which her intervention has caused is the meas- 
 ure of German surprise and disappointment. It 
 was, in fact, a cardinal point in Germany's policy 
 that, in any event, England would stand aside. But 
 there came at last a moment when it began to dawn 
 upon Germany that she had made false reckoning; 
 that neither Russia nor France was certain to cHmb 
 down as each had done before; and that Great 
 Britain's attitude was unexpectedly firm. On the 
 July 29th, Sir Edward Grey gave Prince Lichnowsky 
 a friendly hint that there were circumstances under 
 which England might be compelled to take action. 
 Certainly she would stand aside if Germany or 
 France was not involved; but he did not wish to mis- 
 lead him or his Government into thinking that under 
 no conditions would England remain inactive. 
 
 When Germany realized that her plan had been 
 based on an illusion, she altered it. She took the 
 line that the Austro-Russian dispute was one to be 
 settled entirely by those Powers. Then, none too 
 cautiously, she made efforts to detach England and 
 France from Russia, ^^ and, failing this, she sought 
 later to separate England from France ; just as later 
 still, when the war was not going to her liking, she 
 again endeavoured to seduce France from England's 
 side by affirming that she had no quarrel with the 
 brave and gallant French who had been duped by 
 England; in war-aphasia forgetting that France 
 threw in her lot with Russia before England declared 
 war. It was all tortuous, yet a sort of aboriginal 
 
 30 British White Paper, No. 33. 
 
 31 Orange Book, No. 35. 
 
GERMANY'S TWO FACES 203 
 
 diplomacy, which took no account of human nature 
 and racial character. 
 
 From the moment the Kaiser returned to Berlin 
 on July 26th, Germany evidently made up her mind 
 that Russia would fight if Serbia was to be crushed. 
 Thenceforth, her energies were directed towards the 
 isolation of that country, which once had been a 
 hunting-ground for every needy German, and every 
 carefully-chosen German spy; where once German 
 influence had been so great that patriot Russians 
 broke their hearts and ruined their cause in en- 
 deavouring to combat it and to govern Russia by 
 Russians. 
 
 On no other theory Is It possible to understand 
 or explain the policy of Germany. If she was 
 genuinely anxious to keep the peace, she knew it 
 could be preserved by adopting Sir Edward Grey's 
 proposal. She knew that Russia would stand aside; 
 she knew that the Serbian reply would enable the 
 mediators to adjust the quarrel. But she did not 
 want the quarrel adjusted; she was resolved to mould 
 South Eastern Europe to her own purposes. So she 
 rejected the proposal which would in all probability 
 ensure peace ; and she cast upon two Powers the task 
 which she would not entrust to four. 
 
 The net was cleverly woven, but it was clumsily 
 spread. For while Germany kept pressing on 
 France and England the duty of exercising Influence 
 on Russia, she steadily declined to exercise any In- 
 fluence on Austria. On July 22nd, she had refused 
 to approach the Austrian Government respecting the 
 nature of the demmds she would address to Serbia; 
 again, when Sir Edward Grey asked her to beg 
 Austria to take a favourable view of the Serbian 
 reply, she showed a curiously excessive caution for 
 a peace-desiring Government. She agreed to for- 
 
204 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 ward Sir Edward Grey's message, but the words of 
 the German Under-Secretary of State are significant. 
 The German Government considered that, " The fact 
 of their making this communication to the Austro- 
 Hungarian Government impHes that they associate 
 themselves to a certain extent with this hope. The 
 German Government do not see their way to going 
 beyond this." ^^ 
 
 It is certain that Herr von Tschirscky did not mis- 
 read the meaning of the message which he presented, 
 and fluttered no dovecotes at Vienna. He told Sir 
 Maurice de Bunsen that Serbia's reply was a sham, 
 and that neither France nor Russia would fight. 
 From end to end of the correspondence there is no 
 sign that Germany ever tried to influence Austria 
 towards a mood of complaisance. She was, how- 
 ever, very urgent that pressure should be put upon 
 Russia; so ignoring Sir Edward Grey's dictum that 
 it takes two to keep the peace as much as it takes 
 two to make a quarrel. 
 
 But the clearest proof that Germany never desired 
 a peaceful solution of the crisis will be found in the 
 date on which she definitely refused Sir Edward 
 Grey's invitation to mediate between Austria and 
 Serbia. Up to a certain point, as has been shown, 
 she appeared willing to join with the other Powers. 
 On July 26th, she accepted the proposal in principle; 
 on the 27th she rejected it altogether. In the in- 
 terval two things had happened: the German Em- 
 peror had returned to Berlin and the Serbian reply 
 had been made known. It is the latter event which 
 now concerns us. 
 
 The Serbian reply was unexpectedly favourable; 
 it went far beyond what any of the Powers, Ger- 
 
 32 British White Paper, No. 34. 
 
SERBIA'S CONCILIATORY REPLY 205 
 
 many not excepted, had thought probable. The 
 Austrian Note had contained demands which even 
 Germany admitted Serbia could not accept; but 
 Serbia did accede to all except two, and even these 
 she did not definitely reject. In regard to them she 
 asked for further information — which was never 
 given. She concluded her subdued answer in these 
 words : 
 
 "If the Imperial and Royal Government are not satisfied 
 with this reply, the Serbian Government, considering that it 
 is not to the common interest to precipitate the solution of this 
 question, are ready to accept a pacific understanding, either 
 by referring this question to the decision of the International 
 Tribunal of The Hague, or to the great Powers which took 
 part In the drawing up of the declaration made by the Serbian 
 Government on the i8th (31st) March, 1909." 
 
 It is hard to see what more Serbia could have done. 
 She said in effect, " I am ready to do all you ask 
 consistent with my independence. I do not desire 
 quarrel or strife ; and if anything in my reply is un- 
 satisfactory let our friends decide what is fair and 
 right between us." 
 
 Germany, the master of manoeuvres, the drill- 
 sergeant of Austria, objected to arbitration on the 
 ground that it did not coincide with Austria's dignity 
 to go to arbitration with a small State; as though 
 that was not the object of arbitration — to ensure 
 justice to States too weak to enforce it. There are 
 numerous instances of arbitration between strong 
 States and weak, as when England assented to arbi- 
 tration with Portugal. Apart from that, however, 
 the plea falls for this complete reason: in 1909 the 
 Great Powers had intervened between Austria and 
 Serbia, and Austria did not then object to arbitration. 
 She was, therefore, debarred from making objection 
 
2o6 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 when Serbia offered to submit the controversy to 
 those same Powers in 19 14. Germany had no com- 
 punctions, however. Precedent, history, law or fair- 
 deahng did not weigh with her. Everything should 
 bend to her own purposes. 
 
 It has also to be remembered that, on July 25th, 
 the Austrian Government informed Sir Edward 
 Grey that their Note was not an ultimatum, but a 
 demarche, with a time-limit. This, in Sir Edward 
 Grey's opinion, made " the immediate situation 
 rather less acute." Naturally so ; for, if the Austrian 
 statement meant anything, it meant that the door was 
 not finally closed upon negotiation. If, on the 25th, 
 before Serbia's reply was received, the statement 
 seemed to make the situation less strained, the posi- 
 tion must have seemed infinitely easier after Serbia 
 had sent her bravely submissive reply. 
 
 Yet that was the precise moment which Germany 
 chose to reject the mediation which she had previ- 
 ously accepted "in principle." It comes to this: 
 Germany carefully welcomed mediation so long as a 
 recalcitrant reply was expected from Serbia; she re- 
 jected it as soon as Serbia's reply made the success 
 of mediation certain. 
 
 The evidence is overwhelming that the fatal de- 
 cision which has plunged the world into war was 
 taken at Potsdam on the night of the July 26th. 
 Each year since 1909 had been marked by portents of 
 war: 19 13 had seen Austria feeling for the friendly 
 hand of Italy for an aggressive war on Serbia; but 
 19 14 saw the war launched at last which was desired 
 by Austria for one reason and by Germany for an- 
 other; and by both to make South Eastern Europe 
 Pan-Germanic. 
 
CHAPTER XI 
 
 WAR 
 
 In a survey of intricate negotiations in which time is 
 measured, not by days, but by minutes, it is impos- 
 sible to maintain a strictly chronological sequence 
 without dislocating the narrative. In the preceding 
 sketch of the general aims and actions of the contend- 
 ing Powers it was necessary to anticipate events. 
 We must now turn back to July 26th, when the Cab- 
 inets of Europe were in possession of the Serbian 
 reply. 
 
 On that day the Serbian Note was published in 
 the newspapers of every capital except Berlin! 
 Throughout Europe the Note had been read with 
 a feeling of relief. Coupled with the announce- 
 ment that Germany had accepted Sir Edward Grey's 
 proposal in principle, it was felt that the crisis was 
 passing. If the reply was as unsatisfactory as the 
 German White Book describes it, why was it not 
 made known to the German people by Wolff's 
 Bureau, notoriously the servant of the Government 
 and having a copy of the Note in its possession? 
 The answer given by the Russian Charge d' Affaires 
 at Berlin, that it was because " of the calming effect 
 which it would have on German readers," ^ is the 
 only one possible. In the circumstances, the people 
 of Berlin, ignorant of the terms of the reply, demon- 
 strated noisily in favour of Austria on July 26th, 
 and even made hostile demonstrations before the 
 
 1 Orange Book, No. 46. 
 
 207 
 
2o8 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 Russian Embassy without being checked by the 
 poHce. 
 
 This incident is noteworthy as indicating a new 
 trend in the policy of Germany. Hitherto she had 
 been content to give Austria a free hand and wait on 
 events, confident that Serbia's reply would be un- 
 satisfactory, and that trouble would come without 
 her assistance. From the moment the Serbian reply 
 was received, however, Germany abandoned her pas- 
 sive and expectant attitude for active measures to 
 thwart the peacemakers. 
 
 The peacemakers also found that the reply of 
 Serbia compelled a new direction to their efforts. 
 Up to that point they had been employed to bring- 
 ing Austria and Serbia togeither; thenceforward it 
 was a question of bringing Austria and Russia to- 
 gether. The dispute was, indeed, assuming wider 
 dimensions. Austria had declared that she had no 
 territorial ambitions at the expense of Serbia; but 
 suspicions as to the ingenuous nature of this declara- 
 tion emerged. As mentioned in a previous chapter ,2 
 it was not impossible that Serbia might be compelled 
 to cede territory to the Balkan States; while there 
 was more than a suspicion that Austria intended to 
 use the Serbian quarrel to make territorial acquisi- 
 tions elsewhere. On July 25th, Sir Rennell Rodd 
 reported from Rome that there was " reliable in- 
 formation that Austria intends to seize the Salonica 
 railway." ^ Four days later, the British Charge 
 d' Affaires at Constantinople informed Sir E. Grey 
 that the designs of Austria might extend consider- 
 ably beyond the Sanjak and a punitive occupation of 
 Serbian territory. The Austrian Ambassador had 
 spoken " of the deplorable economic situation of 
 
 2 See chap, vii of this book. 
 
 3 British White Paper, No. 19, 
 
RUSSIA FACES AUSTRIA 209 
 
 Salonica under Greek administration, and of the as- 
 sistance on which an Austrian army could count from 
 a Mussulman population discontented with Serbian 
 rule." 4 
 
 These were indications of Austrian designs which 
 Russia could not ignore. Apart from them, how- 
 ever, she had a direct and profound interest in 
 Serbia herself, recognized by Germany. It is true 
 that in the course of the negotiations Germany's rep- 
 resentatives pretended surprise that Russia should 
 feel any concern in Serbia's affairs, but the German 
 White Book shows how insincere were such expres- 
 sions. Thus the White Book: 
 
 " We were perfectly aware that a possible warlike attitude 
 of Austria-Hungary against Serbia might bring Russia upon 
 the field." ^ 
 
 It well might. Russia had practically created 
 Serbia; as a Slav Power the interests of the Slav 
 nations were her concern. Even had the Russian 
 government been indifferent to them, the Russian 
 people would not have shared their unconcern. Just 
 as Austria pleaded that the force of public opinion 
 would have made the life of the Ministry not worth 
 a moment's purchase had they hesitated to exact satis- 
 faction; so the Russian Government could plead that 
 Slav opinion would have swept them from power had 
 they abandoned Serbian interests. 
 
 Therefore, from the moment Austria broke off 
 diplomatic relations with Serbia, she found herself 
 face to face with Russia. Had she consented to ex- 
 tend the time-limit at first, had she accepted the 
 Serbian suggestion of arbitration, Russia would have 
 remained inactive; but she refused. Upon that 
 
 4 British White Paper, No. 82. ' 
 s German White Book, p. 4. 
 
2IO THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 Russia said: *' Since you will talk no longer with 
 Serbia, perhaps you will now discuss the matter with 
 me. If, however, you do not care to do that, I 
 will step aside while you talk it over with mutual 
 friends." 
 
 That offer Austria refused,^ and declared war 
 against Serbia on July 28th. The attitude of the 
 German Government at this time was astonishing. 
 On the 28th Dr. von Bethmann-Hollweg told Sir 
 Edward Goschen that he was trying to get Austria 
 to discuss the matter with Russia; adding, however, 
 his agreement with Austria's view that her quarrel 
 with Serbia was entirely her own concern and that 
 Russia had no standing in the business.''^ It is not 
 probable that, holding such views, the German Chan- 
 cellor's representations to Austria were more than 
 languorous. " They practically amounted to this: 
 that Austria should proceed with the punitive ex- 
 pedition, but should inform Russia that it was under- 
 taken merely to secure guarantees of good behaviour 
 from Serbia, and that it had no territorial designs.^ 
 This, and this only, constituted those gigantic efforts 
 to secure peace on which then and afterwards the 
 German Chancellor laid such stress. 
 
 There came a moment when he took much credit 
 for preaching moderation to Austria ; but it is a sig- 
 nificant fact that the world has never been given a 
 glimpse of the despatches containing those admoni- 
 tions. What actually did Dr. von Bethmann- 
 Hollweg say to Count von Berchtold? What was 
 the latter's reply? If there are any despatches 
 which embody such admonitions, let them be pub- 
 lished, for they would be of great value to Germany 
 
 6 British White Paper, No. 74. 
 
 '^ Ibid., No. 71. 
 8 Ibid., No. 75. 
 
THE WAY OF THE PEACEMAKER 21 i 
 
 in showing that, as is loudly asserted, she was the 
 victim of foreign hatred and ambition. 
 
 On July 29th Dr. von Bethmann-Hollweg acknowl- 
 edged Sir Edward Grey's " efforts in the cause of 
 general peace," but though he " appreciated," he did 
 not emulate them. He allowed himself to be easily 
 discouraged. On that same day he told our Am- 
 bassador that he found he had to be very careful 
 about giving advice to Austria. He was of opinion 
 that any pressure put upon her was likely to drive 
 her to extremes. He was not sure that the mere 
 fact of his forwarding, without comment. Sir Edward 
 Grey's suggestion that the Serbian reply " offered a 
 basis of discussion " had not precipitated the declara- 
 tion of war.^ 
 
 This is deeply interesting, and worth careful con- 
 sideration. If Austria was so sensitive, how came it 
 that before she dealt with Serbia she consulted Ger- 
 many and obtained from her " a free hand " ? If 
 Germany was on such intimate, not to say paternal 
 terms, as to give her a free hand, and to promise to 
 stand by her, it is extraordinary that she could not 
 take the liberty of advising her to be moderate and 
 prudent, especially as her own interests were in- 
 volved. The German White Book admits that Ger- 
 many knew that she might be drawn into war by 
 Austria's action. It was poor evasion, as so much 
 German diplomacy has been. Dr. von Bethmann- 
 Hollweg's contentions might have some validity if 
 Germany had stood aloof from the affair from the 
 beginning; but it is merely ridiculous — and menda- 
 cious — in the face of what Germany had already 
 done and known. 
 
 The German Chancellor feared that undue pres- 
 
 9 British White Paper, No. 76. 
 
212 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 sure might drive Austria to extremes. In the light 
 of subsequent revelations this statement was unblush- 
 ing hypocrisy. When he made it he knew that Aus- 
 tria was bent on going to extremes. He knew that 
 she had proposed to attack Serbia in August, 19 13, 
 because Austria had told Germany so, and the Italian 
 Government had remonstrated with him on the sub- 
 ject. Even the horse-marines would not be so 
 credulous as to believe he did not know in June, 19 14, 
 that Austria was calling in her reservists from 
 abroad; that she was making last preparations for 
 the struggle which had been for years in contempla- 
 tion. 
 
 We now come to a phase in the negotiations of 
 vital importance. On July 29th Sir Edward Grey 
 had an interview with Prince Lichnowsky,^^ to whom 
 he showed a telegram from Rome in which the Mar- 
 quis di San Giuliano, then Italian Foreign Secretary, 
 put forward an important proposal. The Austrian 
 Government had issued an official analysis of the 
 Serbian reply, detailing the points in which it ap- 
 peared unsatisfactory; the Italian Minister con- 
 sidered much of this criticism quite childish, but there 
 was one passage which opened a way to a settlement. 
 The Serbian Charge d' Affaires at Rome said that if 
 only Austria would explain the mode in which, under 
 Clauses 5 and 6, Austrian agents were to intervene 
 in Serbia, Serbia might accept the whole Austrian 
 Note ; and In the Austrian analysis it was stated that 
 the co-operation of Austrian agents was for investiga- 
 tion only, not for judicial or administrative measures. 
 
 Here, then, was a clear opening for settlement. 
 If Austria thought it beneath her dignity to give this 
 explanation to Serbia, why should she not at once give 
 
 10 British White Paper, No. 90. 
 
THE INFAMOUS PROPOSAL 213 
 
 It to the four Powers, who could then advise Serbia 
 to accept without conditions? Sir Edward Grey 
 drew the attention of Prince Lichnowsky to this. 
 He said that as to mediation between Austria and 
 Russia, it should not take the form of asking Russia 
 to stand aside while Austria was left free to go as 
 far as she liked. He agreed that Austria should 
 not be humihated; on the other hand Austria should 
 not humiliate Russia; though, of course, there would 
 be distinct humiliation of Serbia. He pointed out 
 the danger of a general war, and again urged that 
 the matter be referred to the four Powers, leaving 
 it to Germany to suggest the form of the mediation. 
 
 There were thus two roads to peace: (i) Dis- 
 cussion between Austria and Russia; (2) reference 
 to the four Powers. Russia, be It noted, was wilHng 
 to accept either. 
 
 After Prince Lichnowsky had left him on the 29th, 
 Sir Edward Grey telegraphed the substance of the 
 interview and the proposal for mediation to the 
 British Ambassador at Berlin. No doubt, In send- 
 ing the despatch, he was hopeful that he was at last 
 about to succeed; because the Italian message seemed 
 to show a way out, and because Prince Lichnowsky 
 had closed the interview by '' saying emphatically 
 that some means must be found of preserving the 
 peace of Europe." In this telegram Sir Edward 
 Grey used the words that — 
 
 " Mediation was ready to come into operation by any method 
 that Germany thought possible, if only Germany would press 
 the button in the interests of peace." 
 
 That telegram was sent about 4 o'clock In the 
 afternoon of July 29th. The German response was 
 prompt. Late that night the German Chancellor 
 sent for the British Ambassador. Dr. von Beth- 
 
ai4 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 mann-HoUweg had just come from Potsdam. Hot 
 from an interview with his Imperial master, he at 
 last drew aside the veil behind which German policy 
 had been silently at work. Let Sir Edward Goschen 
 tell the story of that fateful midnight interview : ^^ 
 
 " I was asked to call upon the Chancellor to-night. His 
 Excellency had just returned from Potsdam. 
 
 " He said that should Austria be attacked by Russia a 
 European conflagration might, he feared, become inevitable, 
 owing to Germany's obligations as Austria's ally, in spite of 
 his continued efforts to maintain peace. He then proceeded 
 to make the following strong bid for British neutrality. He 
 said that it was clear, so far as he was able to judge the main 
 principle which governed British policy, that Great Britain 
 would never stand by and allow France to be crushed in any 
 conflict there might be. That, however, was not the object 
 at which Germany aimed. Provided that neutrality of Great 
 Britain were certain, every assurance would be given to the 
 British Government that the Imperial Government aimed at 
 no territorial acquisitions at the expense of France should they 
 prove victorious in any war that might ensue. 
 
 " I questioned His Excellency about the French colonies, 
 and he said that he was unable to give a similar undertaking 
 in that respect. As regards Holland, however, His Excel- 
 lency said that, so long as Germany's adversaries respected the 
 integrity and neutrality of the Netherlands, Germany was 
 ready to give His Majesty's Government an assurance that 
 she would do likewise. It depended upon the action of 
 France what operations Germany might be forced to enter 
 upon in Belgium, but when the war was over, Belgian integ- 
 rity would be respected if she had not sided against Germany. 
 
 " His Excellency ended by saying that ever since he had 
 been Chancellor the object of his policy had been, as you were 
 aware, to bring about an understanding with England; 
 he trusted that these assurances might form the basis of that 
 understanding which he so much desired. He had in mind a 
 general neutrality agreement between England and Ger- 
 
 11 British White Paper, No. 85. 
 
WHAT HAPPENED AT POTSDAM 215 
 
 many, though it was of course at the present moment too early 
 to discuss details, and an assurance of British neutrality in 
 the conflict which the present crisis might possibly produce, 
 would enable him to look forward to realization of his desire. 
 
 " In reply to his Excellency's inquiry how I thought this 
 request would appeal to you, I said that I did not think it 
 probable that at this stage of events you would care to bind 
 yourself to any course of action, and that I was of opinion 
 that you would desire to retain full liberty. 
 
 *' Our conversation upon this subject having come to an 
 end, I communicated the contents of your telegram of to-day 
 to his Excellency, who expressed his best thanks to you." 
 
 Such was the proposal made by the German Chan- 
 cellor within twelve hours of the declaration of his 
 Ambassador in London that every effort should be 
 made to preserve the peace of Europe; forty-eight 
 hours after he had authorized Prince Lichnowsky to 
 declare that Germany accepted mediation in prin- 
 ciple; and twenty-four hours after he said that he 
 was asking Austria to give the assurance against ter- 
 ritorial aggrandizement which the Italian Govern- 
 ment and Sir Edward Grey beheved would clear the 
 situation. Well might M. Sazonoff, the Russian 
 Foreign Minister, declare on July 28th that he was 
 sure Germany favoured Austria's uncompromising 
 attitude, and had used no influence to modify it.^^ 
 
 It is not diflicult to reconstruct the interview which 
 had taken place between Dr. von Bethmann-Hollweg 
 and the Kaiser. While the Serbian crisis, and the 
 complications between Austria and Russia, were hold- 
 ing the attention of the Cabinets of Europe, the talk 
 of Kaiser and Chancellor was of war with France; 
 of the creation of a World-Empire by the seizure of 
 French Colonies; of "hacking their way through" 
 Belgium regardless of all sacred obligations. It was 
 
 12 British White Paper, No. 54. 
 
2i6 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 not now a question of allowing Austria a free hand, 
 or even of holding off Russia while she vindicated her 
 rights against Serbia; it was a cold calculation of 
 what Germany herself was going to make out of the 
 trouble, and how she could make it with the minimum 
 of danger. 
 
 Sir Edward Grey received the account of the inter- 
 view about midnight on the 29th. The next day he 
 telegraphed a peremptory refusal of the proffered 
 bargain.^^ 
 
 " Your telegram of 29th July. 
 
 " His Majesty's Government cannot for a moment enter- 
 tain the Chancellor's proposal that they should bind them- 
 selves to neutrality on such terms. 
 
 *' What he asks us in effect is to engage to stand by while 
 French colonies are taken and France is beaten, so long as 
 Germany does not take French territory as distinct from the 
 colonies. 
 
 " From the material point of view such a proposal is un- 
 acceptable, for France, without further territory in Europe 
 being taken from her, could be so crushed as to lose her posi- 
 tion as a Great Power, and become subordinate to German 
 policy. 
 
 " Altogether apart from that, it would be a disgrace for us 
 to make this bargain with Germany at the expense of France, 
 a disgrace from which the good name of this country would 
 never recover. 
 
 " The Chancellor also in effect asks us to bargain away 
 whatever obligation or interest we have as regards the neu- 
 trality of Belgium. We could not entertain that bargain 
 either." 
 
 The German offer has been described by Mr. 
 Asquith as '' infamous." It was not only infamous 
 in itself, a worthy product of the " Poison Booth," 
 as the German Foreign Office is called by its fa- 
 
 13 British White Paper, No. loi. 
 
SIR EDWARD GREY REPLIES 217 
 
 miliars, but It was a dire affront to Great Britain. 
 Perhaps it Is not surprising that the authors of such 
 a plot were beyond understanding that others might 
 still have old-fashioned prejudices of honour and 
 good conduct; but if they ihad had a little of the great 
 Frederick's cunning or Bismarck's subtility, they 
 would not have so brazenly proposed prostitution of 
 a nation's honour to those unused to vicious practices. 
 In the face of this, Germany calmly asked England 
 to stand aside while the main obstacle to her own 
 ruin was removed. Human impudence never swung 
 freer of all anchors. 
 
 And for the loss of her security and her honour 
 what was England to obtain? The rich rewards of 
 a friendly understanding with Germany! The same 
 suggestion had been made before during the discus- 
 sions on the reduction of armaments. But there was 
 a difference between the suggested bargain of those 
 days and that of July, 19 14. We were asked then 
 to pledge ourselves to general neutrality that a tem- 
 porary retardation of shipbuilding might be gained. 
 We were now asked to barter away our Interests and 
 our honour for something, as to which, the Chancel- 
 lor artlessly remarked, it was much too soon to dis- 
 cuss the details. We were to give all, for what? 
 For a promise of something undefined; a promise 
 given by men who, In the same breath, were proclaim- 
 ing their contempt of promises and treaty engage- 
 ments. 
 
 It Is clear from the terms of his reply that Sir 
 Edward Grey was, as every honourable man would 
 be, indignant that such an offer should be made ; but 
 he did not allow his Indignation as a man to blind 
 him to his duty as a statesman seeking the way of 
 peace. The natural man might well have said, " If 
 you think it worth while to be friends with us, whom 
 
2i8 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 by your offers you show you consider fools and 
 knaves, we do not desire the friendship of men who 
 affront us by such degrading proposals and who are 
 capable of conceiving them." What the British 
 statesman did say in effect was this : — 
 
 We cannot buy your friendship at the price of our 
 honour and our interests, but we are ready to give our 
 friendship as the price of European peace. If you 
 want us to be your friends, help us to keep the peace ; 
 if we succeed in doing so, our mutual relations will 
 be improved and strengthened. 
 
 But that was not all. Sir Edward Grey not only 
 made an appeal of great dignity, but he gave a 
 promise of which history will take note. Here it is 
 in his own words : ^* 
 
 " And I will say this : If the peace of Europe can be pre- 
 served, and the present crisis safely passed, my own endeavour 
 will be to promote some arrangement to which Germany could 
 be a party, by which she could be assured that no aggressive 
 or hostile policy would be pursued against her or her allies 
 by France, Russia, and ourselves, jointly or separately. I 
 have desired this and worked for it, as far as I could, through 
 the last Balkan crisis, and, Germany having a corresponding 
 object, our relations sensibly improved. The idea has hith- 
 erto been too Utopian to form the subject of definite proposals, 
 but if this present crisis, so much more acute than any that 
 Europe has gone through for generations, be safely passed, I 
 am hopeful that the relief and reaction which will follow may 
 make possible some more definite rapprochement between the 
 Powers than has been possible hitherto." 
 
 So long as the accepted canons of right and wrong 
 hold good, until they are supplanted by Nietzsche's 
 Law of the Superman and Treitschke's inverted dog- 
 mas, that despatch of June 30th will stand as a model 
 of national morality. In simple words, stripped of 
 
 14 British White Paper, No. loi. 
 
THE DECISIVE INTERVIEW 219 
 
 all diplomatic reservations, England ojEfered as the 
 price of peace now an arrangement which would 
 guarantee the peace of Europe for years to come. 
 No citizen of the British Empire can read those 
 words without pride ; seeing what has happened, few 
 men of any nation can read them without emotion. 
 
 But when Sir Edward Goschen read them to the 
 German Chancellor on the morning of July 31st they 
 left him cold. He was, '' So taken up with the news 
 of the Russian measures on the frontier " that he 
 received the communication without remark.^^ His 
 mind, he said, was so full of grave matters that he 
 could not be certain of remembering all its points. 
 That was a curious comment. If the Chancellor was 
 so overcome by the imminence of war, his sensitively 
 alert and anxious mind might well have been seized 
 with interest in a document which offered him the 
 assurance of peace and amity. He could, however, 
 in his agitation, well calculated to the moment, do no 
 more than ask the British Ambassador to leave the 
 despatch with him, so that he might think it over 
 before giving his answer. Then, with Sir Edward 
 Grey's despatch in his pocket, he went to see the 
 Emperor at Potsdam. Thrice in the course of these 
 negotiations do we hear of visits by the German 
 Chancellor to the Emperor, and it should be noted 
 that each visit was followed by a sinister develop- 
 ment. 
 
 Time had been when William II had apparently 
 used his Influence for peace; but of late years acute 
 observers had discerned a change. As the passions 
 of his people rose against France, against Russia, 
 against England, against all who seemed to stand In 
 their path, the Emperor became less able, or less 
 
 15 British White Paper, No. 109. 
 
220 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 willing, to restrain violent sentiment. His apologists 
 say that he wearied under the strain; less indulgent 
 judges declare that he had brought the people to the 
 place he had prepared for them; but there is no need 
 to speculate. It is the fact that in 19 13 King Albert 
 of Belgium was convinced that his cousin of Germany- 
 was no longer a champion of peace. M. Jules Cam- 
 bon, who, besides being a diplomatist, is a profound 
 psychological observer, records his impressions in a 
 despatch of overwhelming interest. He tells how 
 during an Interview with King Albert, the Emperor 
 appeared overwrought and irritable, and adds that 
 he is now less master of his impatience than In former 
 years : 
 
 " As the years begin to weigh on William II, the family 
 traditions, the retrograde feelings of the Court, and above 
 all the impatience of soldiers, are gaining more ascendency 
 over his mind. Perhaps he may feel I know not what kind 
 of jealousy of the popularity acquired by his son, who flatters 
 the passions of the Pan-Germans, and perhaps he may find 
 that the position of the Empire is not commensurate with its 
 power. ... If I were allowed to draw conclusions, I would 
 say that It would be wise to take into account the new fact 
 that the Emperor is growing familiar with an order of ideas 
 which formerly was repugnant to him." ^^ 
 
 It is not hard to see the operation of this mental 
 change in the Moroccan incident of 191 1 ; in the mili- 
 tary preparation of June, 19 13; and in Austria's 
 tentative proposals to Italy for an attack on Serbia In 
 August of that same year. In the light of M. Cam- 
 bon's analysis, one can understand the diplomatic 
 change which followed the Kaiser's return from Nor- 
 way, and how every meeting between him and his 
 Chancellor weighted the balance against peace. In 
 
 16 French Yellow Book, No. 6. 
 
GERMAN ULTIMATUM TO RUSSIA 221 
 
 the interview which took place on July 31st the 
 final decision was taken which plunged Europe into 
 war. 
 
 With Sir Edward Grey's offer before them, the 
 Emperor and the Chancellor sent an ultimatum to 
 the Tsar, demanding the abandonment of mobiliza- 
 tion against Austria as well as Germany, and requir- 
 ing a reply within twelve hours. In order to under- 
 stand this astonishing act, it is necessary to go back 
 a few hours ; to leave Berlin and turn to Vienna. 
 
 Germany had long resolved on war; the time had 
 now come according to calculation. There were, as 
 has been shown, internal disintegrating influences 
 always at work in the Empire which could only be 
 counteracted by external adventures. The German 
 people had been induced to shoulder heavy taxation 
 by alluring promises of colonial expansion. The 
 limit of their tax-paying capacity was nearly reached; 
 there were signs of reaction. Opportunity for war 
 only was wanted, and that had come. Germany 
 doubted the willingness of the Powers of the Entente 
 to fight. Still more did she doubt their readiness to 
 fight. They might talk big, but could they or would 
 they translate their words into action? Germany 
 had made up her mind to expose the pretence, to 
 shatter the sham obstruction in her way, to meet 
 make-believe with reality. 
 
 Austria's heart began to fail her, however, when 
 she came to the sticking-point ; when she saw the 
 magnitude of the operations to be faced. She had 
 not reasons of domestic policy like those of Germany 
 to make war; on the contrary her domestic condi- 
 tions rather impelled her towards peace. She did 
 not even stand to make so much out of a successful 
 war, as her ally. For her there were no colonies 
 oversea, there was no mastery of Europe to achieve : 
 
222 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 at the best she would only be ** a brilliant second ''; 
 the utmost she might hope to gain was a port on the 
 iEgean and perhaps a slice of Poland and Serbia, 
 neither of them likely to add to her ease and comfort. 
 To gain even so much she found before her a tre- 
 mendous ordeal. When she received Germany's 
 kind permission to deal with Serbia as she pleased, 
 the business had not seemed formidable. She be- 
 lieved — Germany had encouraged her in the belief 
 — that the other Powers would of desire or necessity 
 stand aloof, while she had her will of the turbulent 
 little State across the Danube. To issue a peremp- 
 tory ultimatum, to shell Belgrade, to despatch a puni- 
 tive expedition was no great thing. And then, sud- 
 denly, the figure of the Eastern Colossus loomed 
 across her path, declaring that it would not be now 
 as it was in 1909. 
 
 All at once a conviction of danger seized her; she 
 shrank back, — 
 
 " Like boys who unaware, 
 Ranging the woods to start a hare, 
 Come to the mouth of the dark lair 
 Where, growling low, a fierce old bear 
 Lies amidst bones and blood." 
 
 Perhaps the idea began to dawn upon her that she 
 had been a catspaw, the blind tool of German am- 
 bitions. Whatever the cause, Austria began to abate 
 her former austerity. She consented to enter into 
 direct conversations with the Russian Government. 
 
 Foreign Ministers heaved a sigh of relief. Ger- 
 many, with what sincerity events soon proved, posed 
 for a few hours as the peacemaker of Europe, calling 
 all men to witness the effect of her influence upon the 
 bellicose Cabinet at Vienna. At Germany's request. 
 Sir Edward Grey telegraphed to St. Petersburg, hint- 
 
AUSTRIA GIVES WAY 223 
 
 Ing that, pending negotiations, Russia might stay her 
 preparations. The British Foreign Secretary told 
 the German Government that, if any reasonable pro- 
 posal were put forward which would make it clear 
 that Germany and Austria were striving for peace, 
 he would support it. He would indeed go so far as 
 to say that if Russia and France would not accept it, 
 England would have nothing more to do with the 
 consequences.^^ 
 
 Russia, on her part, met Austria more than half- 
 way. Wearied by his disappointed efforts for peace, 
 M. Sazonoff eagerly seized the chance offered him. 
 He promptly offered to stop military preparations, if 
 Austria, recognizing that the Serbian question had 
 become a matter of interest, would declare her readi- 
 ness to eliminate from her ultimatum such points as 
 violated the sovereign rights of Serbia. ^^ He went 
 further than this. On Sir Edward Grey's sugges- 
 tion, he modified his formula. He offered to stay 
 military preparations if Austria would allow the 
 Great Powers to decide what satisfaction Serbia 
 could give to Austria without impairing her inde- 
 pendence or rights as a sovereign State.^^ These 
 conditions Austria accepted. She agreed to submit 
 the points which menaced Serbian independence to 
 mediation. On July 31st she had, in fact, yielded 
 on all the points in dispute.^^ 
 
 But the British Ambassador at Vienna noted that, 
 as the relations between Austria and Russia im- 
 proved, the tension between Germany and Russia 
 increased. He does not conceal his belief that, 
 throughout, Herr von Tschirscky, the German Am- 
 
 1"^ British White Paper, No. iii. 
 1^ Orange Book, No. 60. 
 
 19 Ibid., No. 67. 
 
 20 British White Paper, No. 161. 
 
224 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 bassador at Vienna, had been the dark spirit of the 
 play. His suspicions proved to be well founded. 
 The German Emperor and his Chancellor knew that 
 Austria and Russia had virtually reached an agree- 
 ment; they had been told by Austria that, despite 
 Russia's mobilization, in appreciation of England's 
 efforts for peace, they were ready to accept Sir Ed- 
 ward Grey's proposal of mediation. They had be- 
 fore them Sir Edward Grey's despatches, one prom- 
 ising not to support France and Russia if they were 
 unreasonable, the other offering to bring about a 
 friendly arrangement between all the Powers, if Ger- 
 many would but bring the present crisis to a peaceful 
 issue. Knowing all this, on August 31st they sent 
 Russia an ultimatum peculiarly domineering and of- 
 fensive. Russia was ordered to demobilize, and was 
 given twelve hours in which to reply. Lest that 
 should not be enough, an ultimatum was also sent to 
 France, which asked for a declaration of her inten- 
 tions. 
 
 The hope of preserving peace had now almost 
 reached the vanishing point. But on August ist 
 there still remained a chance — the last chance — 
 and Sir Edward Grey tried hard to turn it to account. 
 He telegraphed to Sir Edward Goschen saying that 
 Austria and Russia had agreed on mediation, and 
 that peace might still be preserved " if only a little 
 respite in time can be obtained before any Great 
 Power begins war.^^ The British Ambassador at 
 once saw Herr von Jagow. He argued for a long 
 time that the dispute was one between Austria and 
 Russia, and that Germany was only drawn in as Aus- 
 tria's ally. If, then, the Powers most concerned 
 were ready to reach a peaceful settlement, and Ger- 
 
 21 British White Paper, No. 131. 
 
GERMANY FORCES THE ISSUE 225 
 
 many did not desire war on her own account, It was 
 surely only logical that she should hold her hand and 
 continue to work for peace. 
 
 The reply of the German Foreign Secretary merits 
 particular attention. It was, he said, too late. Rus- 
 sia had mobilized and so had Germany. True, 
 Russia had offered to suspend further action. But 
 though she could wait, Germany could not. Ger- 
 many had the speed and Russia had the numbers. 
 Her safety lay in striking the first blow; therefore 
 she would strike.^^ 
 
 It does not seem to have occurred to Herr von 
 Jagow that, in view of the tentative arrangement be- 
 tween Austria and Russia, there was no occasion to 
 strike at all. Once the dispute between Austria and 
 Serbia was submitted to the Powers the necessity 
 for v/ar disappeared. The decision of the Powers 
 would' be binding on all parties, and as a matter of 
 fact the question to be decided could be reduced to 
 one point — the preservation of Serbian Independ- 
 ence. There was not a State In Europe which did 
 not agree, so long as Serbia was left her sovereign 
 rights, that she should give satisfaction for the past 
 and guarantees for the future. England had pledged 
 herself to stand aloof if Russia and France were un- 
 reasonable; Russia had agreed that Serbia deserved 
 punishment. There was, therefore, really no reason 
 why there should not be an Immediate demobiliza- 
 tion all round. 
 
 If that idea did occur to the German Camarilla 
 It was contemptuously dismissed. They had been 
 steadily steering to this point for years. Much light 
 has been thrown on the whole situation by the French 
 Yellow Book In which M. Cambon, French Ambas- 
 
 22 British White Paper, No. 138. 
 
226 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 sador at Berlin, with insight and knowledge, lays bare 
 the facts where German's relations to France were 
 concerned. His observations at this point, as the 
 war-curtain rings up, are of the most vital interest. 
 So far back as 191 1 the camarilla had even made the 
 preliminary step towards mobilization, called Krie- 
 gesgefahr^ and it was repeated again in April, 19 13, 
 while Herr von Jagow was making enquiries as to 
 whether Russia had any difficulties in the Far East 
 which might tie her hands in Europe.^^ Again, four 
 months later, there had been those threatening and 
 subterranean proceedings relative to Serbia exposed 
 by Signor Giolitti in the Italian Chamber. On each 
 of these occasions Germany had drawn back for mili- 
 tary, naval, or financial reasons, but her retreat had 
 exasperated German public opinion. 
 
 There was, indeed, as M. Cambon points out in his 
 masterly review of German conditions, a Peace Party 
 In Germany; and it is certain that the Southern States 
 were not unanimous in their approval of military ad- 
 venture. All pacific influences, however, were only 
 a make-weight in political matters, " silent, social 
 forces, passive and defenceless against a wave of 
 warlike feeling," generated and fed by a strong War 
 Party through varied and formidable agencies. 
 Economists spoke of over-population and over- 
 production, of markets and outlets; of being choked; 
 of England and France blocking the way to oversea 
 dominions. There was a " vague but deeply rooted 
 conviction that a free Germany and a regenerated 
 France were two historical facts mutually incompat- 
 ible." Others resented the idea of talking on terms 
 of equality with the country they had conquered in 
 1870. 
 
 23 French Yellow Book, No. 5. 
 
WHY THE GERMANS WANTED WAR 227 
 
 The country squires wanted " at all costs to escape 
 the death-duties bound to come if peace continued"; 
 to which indeed the Reichstag had agreed in prin- 
 ciple. The aristocracy, menaced by the democratisa- 
 tion of Germany, believed that only by war could 
 their " hierarchy with the King of Prussia as its 
 supreme head " be perpetuated. The manufacturers 
 of guns and armour plate, big merchants demanding 
 bigger markets, bankers speculating on the coming of 
 the golden age and the next war indemnity — all 
 these regarded war as '' good business." 
 
 The Universities swelled the martial chorus ; socio- 
 logical fanatics declared that armed peace was a 
 crushing burden on the nation; and that as France 
 stood in the way of disarmament she must be dealt 
 with drastically, mercilessly, once for all. His- 
 torians, Professors, joined in the anthem to German 
 Kidtiir and its mission for the redemption of the 
 world. 
 
 Most dangerous of all — how truly has M. Cam- 
 bon's estimate been verified ! — were those who sup- 
 ported war through rancour and resentment: the 
 diplomatists whose ineptitude had placed them ^' in 
 very bad odour in public opinion "; who, worsted in 
 negotiations, were " heaping together and reckoning 
 up their grievances." 
 
 The time had come. M. Cambon had thought 
 that, when it arrived, Germany would contrive, after 
 Prussian tradition, to provoke France into aggres- 
 sion; but Herr von Jagow abandoned the Bis- 
 marckian diplomacy for the blunt methods of Fred- 
 erick the Great. To Sir Edward Goschen he laid 
 bare the whole scheme of planned aggression now 
 bursting through all restraint. He was but echoing 
 the words of General von Moltke, spoken fifteen 
 months before : 
 
228 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 " We must put on one side all commonplaces as to the 
 responsibility of the aggressor. When war has become neces- 
 sary it is essential to carry it on in such a way as to place all 
 the chances in one's own favour. Success alone justifies war. 
 Germany cannot and ought not to leave Russia time to 
 mobilize, for she would then be obliged to maintain on her 
 eastern front so large an army that she would be placed in a 
 position of equality, if not of inferiority, to that of France. 
 Accordingly, we must anticipate our principal adversary as 
 soon as there are nine chances to one of going to war, and 
 begin it without delay in order ruthlessly to crush all resist- 
 ance." 2* 
 
 To anyone dispassionately reading the diplomatic 
 correspondence it will appear that there was much 
 more than one chance in nine of preserving peace 
 when Austria made her agreement with Russia ; that 
 the chances were at least even between peace and 
 war. But Germany did not look at it that way. 
 For her the war was necessary. So General von 
 Moltke IS said to have declared to the King of the 
 Belgians, in the presence of the Emperor, in No- 
 vember, 1913 ; and it was to be a fight to the finish. 
 
 " This time we must make an end of It," Moltke 
 had said.^^ Germany had hardened her heart. 
 
 All the negotiations for peace had been a farce, 
 and the farce was ended even before Herr von Jagow 
 had declared to Sir Edward Goschen the non pos- 
 sumus which had only been hidden till the trigger of 
 German mobilization was ready for the Kaiser's 
 finger. The door of the Foreign Office had scarcely 
 closed upon Sir Edward Goschen, after his last inter- 
 view with Herr von Jagow, when Germany declared 
 war upon Russia, and orders were given for the in- 
 vasion of Luxemburg and the seizure of British ships 
 at Hamburg. 
 
 2* French Yellow Book, No. 3. 
 25 Ibid., No. 6. 
 
CHAPTER XII 
 
 ENGLAND MOVES 
 
 It has been shown In the preceding chapters how a 
 dispute between Austria and Serbia developed into 
 a dispute between Austria and Russia, as was Inevit- 
 able! So long as the quarrel remained within those 
 limits England was only concerned In trying to bring 
 about an adjustment of differences and to keep the 
 peace. Though there were difficulties In the way, 
 they did not seem insurmountable. While Austria's 
 attitude was Immediately truculent, Germany's pro- 
 fessions were at first apparently pacific. Russia had 
 no desire to fight; she needed and wished for a period 
 of tranquillity for Internal development. France 
 had no present quarrel with either Austria or Ger- 
 many. Though she might be forced to fight in order 
 to help her ally, she was doing all she could to pro- 
 mote a peaceful settlement. She was not ready for 
 war; for cogent reasons she was averse to it. When 
 he sat down to dinner on July 29th Sir Edward Grey 
 could view the situation without despair, though not 
 without anxiety. 
 
 At midnight the whole situation had changed. Sir 
 Edward Grey was In possession of Dr. von Beth- 
 mann-Hollweg's " Infamous " proposal. We can 
 Imagine him in the silent hours before the dawn view- 
 ing with dismay the vistas of destruction which that 
 proposal had opened up. The murder of the Arch- 
 duke, the Austrian Note, the Serbian reply grew dim 
 in the glare of the new menace. Even the antago- 
 nism of Austria and Russia suddenly became small 
 beside the revelation of Germany's real designs. 
 
 229 
 
230 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 She was no longer the friend of Austria, resolved 
 to keep the ring while her ally exacted satisfaction 
 for her wrongs; she was herself about to become the 
 aggressor on her own account. In the light of Ger- 
 many's protestations that Austria contemplated no 
 territorial acquisitions in the Balkans, it was curious 
 and significant that she herself now proclaimed the 
 intention of grasping at a vast colonial Empire be- 
 longing to another country. If her plans did not 
 miscarry, instead of France bound to us by the un- 
 derstanding of 1904, we were to have Germany, 
 threatening, unfriendly and unscrupulous, as our 
 neighbour in Indo-China, West Africa, and the Pa- 
 cific. She was to dominate the Western Mediter- 
 ranean from Morocco and Algiers, while she used 
 Salonica as a base in the Eastern sea and pushed her 
 railways to the Persian Gulf. What then became 
 of our road to India; of the secure peace of our 
 Eastern dependencies? 
 
 That France should be ravaged and her commerce 
 destroyed was a hideous outlook; but in addition 
 there was innocent Belgium, to whom we wer'e 
 pledged by every tie of interest, sentiment and hon- 
 our, standing in the path of an enemy without faith 
 or shame in international dealing. Having given 
 her pledge to Belgian neutrality, would she keep 
 it? 
 
 Behind all lay the question of the very existence 
 of the British Empire itself. When Germany had 
 accomplished the designs for which she had been 
 preparing all these years, bringing them at last to the 
 maturity " of the blond beast of prey " behind the 
 screen of the Austro-Serbian negotiations, how long 
 would it be before England's turn came? Sir Ed- 
 ward Grey must have felt like one wandering in a 
 fog on some volcano, when the mists suddenly rise. 
 
DIES IR^ 231 
 
 and he finds himself on the crater's edge with the 
 devouring fires below him. He saw Europe, the 
 world, as he had known it, dissolving in a cataclysm 
 of universal war. 
 
 We have seen how he tried to meet the emergency, 
 how great a bid he made for peace ; how he strove, 
 not even to the eleventh hour, but until the hands 
 were pointing to the twelfth, to bring Russia and 
 Austria to terms; and, indeed, how he succeeded, 
 only to find all lost by Germany's declaration of war 
 against Russia and her invasion of Luxemburg. 
 
 It was Sunday, the second of August. People in 
 numberless churches of these islands were praying 
 that there might be peace in their time, knowing as 
 they prayed that the issue hung on a thread; fearing 
 war, hating it, but conscious that there was some- 
 thing more precious even than peace — the Empire, 
 with all it stands for, the honour of the nation, the 
 faith of the thousand years. There was unusual 
 movement in the streets. Anxious men watched tire- 
 lessly the tape machines in the clubs. They knew 
 that the Cabinet was even then sitting to make the 
 fateful decision. It was known also that in the Cab- 
 inet there were discords; the names of the dissentient 
 Ministers were bandied from mouth to mouth. At 
 last it was announced that the Cabinet had broken 
 up, to meet again in the evening. The day passed, 
 Monday came, and still England was at peace. 
 
 But the thread was now wearing very thin. 
 After the Cabinet Council on Sunday morning. Sir 
 Edward Grey gave M. Cambon, the French Ambas^ 
 sador in London, the following Memorandum : 
 
 " I am authorized to give an assurance that, If the German 
 fleet comes into the Channel or through the North Sea to 
 undertake hostile operations against French coasts or ship- 
 ping, the British fleet will give all the protection in its power. 
 
232 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 This assurance is, of course, subject to the policy of His Ma- 
 jesty's Government receiving the support of Parliament, and 
 must not be taken as binding His Majesty's Government to 
 take action until the above contingency of action by the Ger- 
 man fleet takes place." ^ 
 
 The Foreign Secretary was careful to explain the 
 meaning of this to M. Cambon. The Government 
 did not feel that they could, necessarily, bind them- 
 selves to declare war upon Germany in case of con- 
 flict between her and France ; but they were prepared 
 to give the above assurance, so that France might 
 make her naval dispositions in the Mediterranean 
 with the knowledge that her Northern and Western 
 Coasts were safe from attack'. This assurance was 
 given as an obhgation of honour. When Germany's 
 shipbuilding policy had compelled England to recast 
 her naval strategy and to concentrate her fleets in the 
 North Sea, France had relieved British embarrass- 
 ment by withdrawing ships from her Western and 
 Northern Coasts, and concentrating her naval 
 strength in the Mediterranean. England's duty was 
 now clear. She could not be the ingrate. 
 
 The terms of Sir Edward Grey's assurance must 
 be carefully considered as an indication of England's 
 policy throughout the negotiations. While the 
 negotiations were proceeding, it was Russia whom 
 Germany accused of having been the cause of the 
 war; it was Russia's premature mobilization which, 
 according to Berlin, rendered futile every effort to 
 restore the peace broken by herself. Once the war 
 began, Germany changed her tune. Thenceforth it 
 was England which brought about the tragedy; 
 though her representatives in America have varied 
 the charge according to the moment's necessity, now 
 
 1 British White Paper, No. 148. 
 
ENGLAND, '' THE TRAITOR " 233 
 
 blaming Russia, now England. According to Berlin, 
 England, true to her old robber instincts, sets Europe 
 by the ears, that she may extend her dominions and 
 make them more secure. She is " perfidious^ and 
 treacherous"; by which is meant that she tricked 
 poor, preoccupied, honest Germany into war; that 
 she stood with her Allies when she was expected to 
 forsake them, to flourish in peace while they ago- 
 nized.^ 
 
 This feeling has found frequent expression in Ger- 
 man speeches and writings, but nowhere more vigor- 
 ously than in the well-known Berlin weekly Kladdera- 
 datsch. Remembering that this paper holds in Ger- 
 many the position which Punch does in England, the 
 significance of the following lines will be appre- 
 ciated : 
 
 "O Lord! I pray 
 
 By all I cherish 
 That the Briton Grey 
 
 Like Judas perish 1 
 Let mine eyes see 
 
 Before I die 
 Grey in a hempen ring 
 
 Dangling from on high, 
 And as he swings 
 
 Let him descry 
 The German eagle 
 
 Wheeling in the sky." 
 
 The charge against England, therefore, contains 
 two counts — that she urged her friends into war; 
 that she deceived Germany into thinking that she was 
 resolved to take no part in it. The first of these 
 charges is met by the analysis of the correspondence 
 which has occupied the preceding chapters. If any- 
 
 2 For important official statement, published while this book goes 
 to press, see Appendix No. IV. 
 
234 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 one doubts the sincerity of England's efforts for 
 peace, let him consider her position in relation to war, 
 and compare it with that of Germany. 
 
 The war found Germany prepared to the last but- 
 ton. Within a few hours her troops were in Luxem- 
 burg, and were massed along the French and Rus- 
 sian frontiers, even if they had not actually crossed 
 them. The authors of that remarkable book. The 
 Truth about Germany ^ are enthusiastic in their paeans 
 over the swiftness and smoothness of the German 
 mobilization. Everything was ready; not so much as 
 a grain of dust lurked in the bearings of the great 
 machine. The War Minister in Berlin could, like 
 Von Roon in 1870, lean back in his chair and thank 
 heaven he could have a little repose. But how stood 
 England during the month of July? Her fleet was 
 ready, as it ever is, and it chanced that, by the acci- 
 dent of a royal inspection — which, from motives of 
 economy, was to take the place of the usual 
 Manoeuvres — it was concentrated and of full 
 strength. Yet the immediate part that the British 
 fleet could play in a Continental war was very limited. 
 It could, indeed, hold the seaways for British com- 
 merce and close them to the enemy; it could secure 
 the food supply of the British Islands and guard 
 them from attack. Having fulfilled these functions, 
 however, it could do little more. The capture of 
 German Colonies would not end the war, or have 
 any influence upon it. As a weapon of offence it was 
 powerless, so long as the enemy's fleet lay in its har- 
 bours protected by mines and submarines. Without 
 daring to invade the precincts where even experts 
 tread warily, it may be said that the war has revealed 
 powers in submarine warfare hitherto almost unsus- 
 pected, save by a few. Enough was known or 
 guessed, however, to show that a fleet, like Eng- 
 
ENGLAND'S MILITARY WEAKNESS 235 
 
 land's, compelled to be ever on patrol, might suffer 
 proportionately more in a war of attrition than an 
 enemy to whom the command of the sea was of 
 secondary consideration. Certainly it would be so, 
 if the enemy would not fight. This, indeed, was the 
 view held in Germany. In his book. The German 
 Enigma, M. Bourdon describes a conversation with 
 Count Reventlow, who disbelieved in a naval war : 
 
 ** England would be running too great risks. . . . She 
 knows that she has countless vulnerable spots on the face of 
 the globe, and that we have none. She knows that she could 
 not starve us out." 
 
 Thus, England's command of the sea, though an 
 important factor in a war, was not likely to be such a 
 decisive factor as it was in the eighteenth and nine- 
 teenth centuries. It was on land that the issue would 
 be decided; and how far was England prepared to 
 play a part in that deciding conflict? To speak 
 truthfully, she was not prepared at all. There was 
 an expeditionary force of which, it may be said with- 
 out national bias, that in equipment, training and 
 personnel it was the equal of any army in the world, 
 ready to do anything that man may dare. Outside 
 those 150,000 men, however — but the advance 
 guard of a modern European army — what was 
 there? There was a Reserve below its proper 
 strength, though composed of well-trained men. 
 There was a territorial army, short of officers, short 
 of men, wanting in field equipment and inadequately 
 trained. Its own talented author, regarding it with 
 the indulgent pride of a parent, had always confessed 
 that it would need six months' training to make it fit 
 for service. Modern warfare, however, does not 
 give six months, or six days, for training men. It 
 does not come like a clumsy burglar fumbling at the 
 
236 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 door, but like an athletic footpad, leaping from a 
 hedge. England has, indeed, with amazing skill 
 been able to improvise armies ; but the prudent states- 
 man never depends on an improvisation which when 
 successful almost amounts to a miracle. Could any 
 man, however much an optimist, have expected that 
 political antagonisms, more fierce than any England 
 has known since 1688, would be extinguished in a 
 night and for the long day of war, by the sacrificing 
 spirit of a great patriotism? The loyal aid of the 
 Dominions was certain, though the degree of assist- 
 ance could not be known; but who could have fore- 
 seen the splendid uprising of India? 
 
 Great Britain, then, had to depend on an army of, 
 say, 200,000 men — forces designed to fulfil her 
 bond to assist her ally and defend Belgium, should 
 the latter's neutrality be infringed. It was a force 
 all too small to give much effective aid even for that 
 purpose, and hopelessly inadequate to the require- 
 ments of a European war. As events proved, even 
 that small army was not able to reach Belgium in time 
 to preserve her neutrality from violation. It might 
 not even have been in time to check the tide of in- 
 vasion from engulfing Paris but for the valour of 
 the Belgian people — '' omnium fortissimi'* as one 
 of the greatest soldiers of all time described them 
 nineteen hundred years ago. 
 
 If the rulers of Great Britain, knowing all this, 
 had deliberately planned and worked for war, they 
 were not merely dishonest intriguers, they were mad. 
 They were, however, neither mad nor dishonest. 
 They made no secret of their intense desire for peace; 
 but neither did they attempt to delude Germany into 
 the idea that they would keep the peace at any price. 
 So far back as July 24th, M. Sazonofi strongly urged 
 Sir Edward Grey to declare England's sohdarity 
 
SIR EDWARD GREY'S WARNINGS 237 
 
 with Russia, and Sir Edward Grey declined. It may 
 be, as was represented by the Russian Minister, that 
 the publication of a formal alliance might have given 
 Germany pause and prevented the catastrophe; but 
 who can say ? Though Sir Edward Grey rightly held 
 that British opinion would not support such action 
 in a quarrel then, in appearance at least, mainly 
 Serbian, he did not conceal from Germany that cir- 
 cumstances might arise which would compel England 
 to intervene. On July 27th he told the Austrian 
 Ambassador that, in view of the European situation, 
 the British fleet would not disperse that day, as had 
 been intended. 
 
 On the 29th he spoke more definitely to Prince 
 Lichnowsky. He told him he had something on his 
 mind which he wished to say to him in a private and 
 friendly manner. The situation was very grave. 
 While it was confined to the issues then involved. 
 Great Britain had no intention of interfering in it. 
 If Germany and France became involved, however, 
 all European interests might be drawn in, and then, 
 as he added in relating this conversation: " I did 
 not wish him to be misled by the friendly tone of 
 our conversation — which I hoped would continue 
 — into thinking that we should stand aside." 
 
 The German Ambassador asked him to be more 
 expHcit. Sir Edward Grey's reply deserves to be 
 remembered. It was that so long as Germany, or 
 even France were not involved there was no question 
 of British interference; but if British interests re- 
 quired it, England would intervene, and intervene 
 quickly. Again he said that he did not desire to be 
 open to the reproach that Germany had been in any 
 way misled as to the course England might pursue. 
 Prince Lichnowsky thereupon said he understood it 
 all perfectly and that Sir Edward Grey's statement 
 
238 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 coincided with what he had himself given in Bedin 
 as his view of the situation.^ 
 
 Sir Edward Grey's declaration to Count Albert 
 Mensdorff and Prince Lichnowsky had a profound 
 effect on Vienna, as was to be seen from Austria's 
 altered tone to Russia. If they did not convince the 
 German Emperor and his Chancellor, that is their 
 affair. If they deceived themselves, it is proof of 
 their ineptitude not of British duplicity. 
 
 The engagement, therefore, which Sir Edward 
 Grey gave to M. Cambon on the second of August 
 was in entire conformity with the warning he had 
 addressed to Prince Lichnowsky on July 29th. It 
 was not, however, a definite pledge of alHance with 
 France. It was conditional. If Germany kept her 
 fleet at home, as she did from prudential motives in 
 1870, there was no obligation on Great Britain to 
 fire a shot. 
 
 Something else happened, however, which com- 
 pelled us to go to war. At the very moment that Sir 
 Edward Grey was giving his friendly warning to 
 Prince Lichnowsky, the German Chancellor was 
 making his degrading proposal to Sir Edward 
 Goschen. In that discussion the name of Belgium 
 was used for the first time In the course of the nego- 
 tiations. Sir Edward Grey lost no time In Inform- 
 ing the German Government how he would regard 
 an infraction of Belgian neutrality. On July 30th 
 he said that England was not prepared to bargain 
 away whatever obligation or Interest she had in the 
 neutrality of Belgium. On the 31st he invited 
 France and Germany to state their intentions as to 
 Belgium's neutrality; on August ist he told Prince 
 Lichnowsky that Germany's evasive reply was a mat- 
 
 ? British White Paper, No. 89, 
 
THE SWIVEL OF THE WAR 239 
 
 ter of very great regret, because the neutrality of 
 Belgium affected feeling in Great Britain, which it 
 would be hard to restrain were that neutrality vio- 
 lated. 
 
 Four times, therefore, once on the general question 
 and thrice on the specific point of Belgian neutrality, 
 did Sir Edward Grey warn Germany that British 
 neutrality was not to be counted on in every circum- 
 stance. It would now seem that Germany did not 
 believe him. That is her affair. Perhaps she 
 thought that England, whatever her feelings, could 
 not fight. If she did think so, if she preferred to be- 
 lieve Baron Kuhlmann rather than the British For- 
 eign Secretary; that again is her affair. If she was 
 misinformed, if she misjudged the situation and mis- 
 read the British character, the responsibility Hes on 
 herself alone. 
 
 The Belgian question was in the end the swivel on 
 which war swung. It was that which united the Brit- 
 ish people; which convinced the most pronounced 
 Pacifists that war might have its sanctity, and that 
 England was taking up arms in a righteous cause. 
 
 It is probable that, in the end, the obligation of 
 friend to friend, and considerations of national 
 safety would have drawn England into war as the 
 ally of France, even if no Uhlan had ever crossed 
 the Belgian frontier. But in such an event there 
 would have been a strong party to declare that we 
 were under no binding obligation; that the point of 
 honour was indistinct; that our material interests 
 were not so gravely threatened as to demand inter- 
 vention; that those interests could be best safe- 
 guarded by standing aloof while others foolishly 
 weakened themselves by war. Those who thought 
 so would have been culpably wrong, but many would 
 have held that opinion. 
 
240 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 When Belgium was invaded, all those doubts van- 
 ished, or were held by a faction insignificant in num- 
 bers or influence. The moral sense of the nation 
 was outraged. There were no longer questions of 
 material interest — though indeed the neutrality of 
 Belgium was of vital interest — the point of honour 
 was no longer dim; the people recognized that, did 
 they now fail to fulfil their obligations, they would 
 lose their own self-respect and the respect of every 
 upright man in every country. The obligation which 
 our friendship imposed on us towards France was 
 one to be construed by each man in his own heart 
 and his own feelings; our obligation towards Bel- 
 gium, however, was one defined, not by sentiment, 
 but by the admitted code of private honour and by 
 international law. If Germany chose to disregard 
 international law and national honour; if she chose 
 to measure British morality by her own; if she tore 
 up the treaties of 1839 and 1870 in the belief that 
 Great Britain, like herself, would regard them as 
 " scraps of paper "; it ill becomes her now to com- 
 plain of British treachery. Under what obligations 
 had Germany placed Great Britain that she should 
 describe as treachery to herself British loyalty to 
 solemn engagements with Belgium? For let it be 
 remembered that no engagement of alliance or neu- 
 trality with Germany or France would absolve Eng- 
 land from her obligation to Belgium under the 
 Treaties. 
 
 Who that was present will ever forget the scene in 
 the House of Commons on August 3rd, when Sir 
 Edward Grey raised the curtain which had hidden 
 from the world's view the war negotiations and the 
 tragic situation to which they had led. The House 
 was thronged in every part; foreign Ambassadors 
 looked down from their places ; behind them the pub- 
 
IN THE HOUSE OF COMMONS 241 
 
 lie galleries were a bank of white faces, all bent with 
 straining attention on the man who had held our 
 destinies In his hand through anxious days, and was 
 now telling the Parliament of England how he had 
 played his part. He was standing, calm and Im- 
 passive, at the table, a tall slight figure, his face, al- 
 ways pale, bearing traces of anxious toil. The 
 Chamber was full of men who knew that In their 
 hands now at last lay a task of supreme responsibility. 
 Excitement was in every member's breast, but he 
 ruled himself to quiet and control. Ministers were 
 grave with foreknowledge and anxious as to the ef- 
 fect of the Foreign Minister's speech on their own 
 party; but no agitation showed. The air was alive 
 with great emotions, but the man on whom were 
 turned the eyes of all the world seemed almost 
 frigidly detached from the crisis in which he moved. 
 
 A Professor, lecturing on the economic policy of 
 the Gracchi, could not have shown less emotion than 
 did Sir Edward Grey as he sketched the history of 
 our relations wath France. He was not an advocate 
 pleading a cause ; he was a judge, impartial, passion- 
 less, severely exact, summing up a case. As he went 
 on, the House, strained as its attention was, seemed 
 to fall Into his mood. Now and then there was a 
 muttered " hear, hear," once or twice there was a 
 burst of cheers; but they seemed almost Irregular in- 
 terruptions of a judicial pronouncement. 
 
 Speaking of the proposal that England should 
 stand aside while Germany attacked France, he ana- 
 lysed our obligations with the quiet authority and 
 scientific precision of a surgeon to his class In a clinic. 
 He had his own deep feeling In the matter, but he 
 would not intrude it. Let each man construe the 
 point of honour for himself. 
 
 Next came the question of Belgium. He had said 
 
242 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 no word yet in reprobation of Germany's now no- 
 torious and degrading proposaL In lucid words and 
 with quiet authority he told of the Treaties, of Mr. 
 Gladstone's action in 1870, of the promise of France 
 to respect the neutrality of Belgium, of Germany's 
 disquieting reticence, of King Albert's moving ap- 
 peal. At last, however, it seemed as though he had 
 to exercise great will to keep his feelings under 
 control, while he showed that, if Belgium's neutrality 
 was violated, her independence would be gone for 
 ever, even if her territorial integrity was left un- 
 touched : 
 
 " If her independence goes, the independence of Holland 
 will follow. I ask the House, from the point of view of 
 British interests, to consider what may be at stake." 
 
 If France was beaten to her knees. If Belgium and 
 then Holland and Denmark fell under Germanic in- 
 fluence, would there not then be against us an un- 
 measured aggrandizement of Germany, an incalcu- 
 lable menace ? 
 
 Then, still In slow measured phrase, he considered 
 what England should do. Should she accept the 
 suggestion that by standing aside and husbanding 
 her strength, she would be in better case to intervene 
 and put things right, to adjust them, to her point of 
 view when the belligerents had fought themselves to 
 exhaustion? He rejected the theory. 
 
 ** If we run away from these obligations of honour and 
 interest as regards the Belgian treaty, I doubt whether, what- 
 ever material force we might have at the end, it would be of 
 very much value in face of the respect that we should have 
 lost." 
 
 Reserved and controlled as was his delivery, the 
 great Assembly thrilled at his words. But he went 
 
THE CONSCIENCE OF A NATION 243 
 
 on steadily and calmly, though with a new, searching, 
 vital note in his voice, to show how, even in neutral- 
 ity, England would suffer. Then came the climax 
 in words which Abraham Lincoln, a master of the 
 opportune phrase, might well have been proud to 
 use: 
 
 " I do hot believe for a moment that at the end of this war, 
 even if we stood aside and remained aside, we should be in a 
 position, a material position, to use our force decisively to undo 
 what had happened in the course of the war . . . and I am 
 quite sure that our moral position — — " 
 
 The end of that sentence was never heard. It 
 was lost in the storm of pent-up emotion which swept 
 the House. The effect was not the product of 
 crafty rhetoric, It was no response to a well calculated 
 appeal: it was the conscience of a nation speaking. 
 
CHAPTER XIII 
 
 " BRAVE BELGIUM "^ 
 
 So England went to war, unanimous as she had never 
 been since the days of the Armada; inspired as she 
 had never been since Cromwellian times by the holi- 
 ness of her cause. Her intervention, and still more 
 the spirit which lay behind it, has been a factor of 
 enormous moment; it will prove to be the decisive 
 factor in the conflict. Germany pleaded military 
 necessity, military advantage for the invasion of Bel- 
 gium. Poor excuses at best, have they been proved 
 valid by events ? Would not Germany to-day be bet- 
 ter off holding the narrow front from Belgium to 
 Switzerland, and free to hurl her armies against War- 
 saw, than as she is, her navies impotent, her armies 
 reduced to the defensive ? The time may come, with 
 better men at the helm, and in the better mood of a 
 civilization which the Junkers of to-day do not under- 
 stand, when Germany, lamenting the violation of Bel- 
 gium, will exclaim, " I have slain a man to my 
 wounding and a young man to my hurt." 
 
 It has been said that, in making war for the de- 
 fence of Belgian neutrality, Great Britain was moved 
 solely by self-interest; that she used the language of 
 morality to cover and excuse her selfish policy. The 
 charge is made in Germany. A nation that subordi- 
 nates moral obligations to self-interest can hardly be 
 expected to recognize morality in others. Naturally, 
 upon this matter Germany finds an ally in Mr. Ber- 
 nard Shaw. The writer who glories in reducing prin- 
 ciples to terms of materialism, and can find the satis- 
 
 244 
 
BRITISH INTERESTS 245 
 
 faction of his sardonic humour in the martyrdom of 
 the early Christians, could of course not easily un- 
 derstand how self-interest may on occasion yield place 
 to honour, for which men will give their lives. Mr. 
 Shaw has earned the gratitude of Germany which 
 at first bitterly assailed him, ^' because he was sus- 
 pected of being a British patriot." Apparently, how- 
 ever, he has purged hirnself of this reproach by *' ex- 
 pressions of a critical character relating to his coun- 
 try"; because the German Forwdrts of the nine- 
 teenth of February, 1915, declares that, "To-day 
 this fellow without a country belongs to the Crown 
 Witnesses of the entire German Press." 
 
 The charge requires an answer, and It Is not far to 
 seek. Both Mr. Gladstone In 1870, and Sir Ed- 
 ward Grey last August, referred to England's Inter- 
 est in the maintenance of Belgian neutrality as well as 
 to her obligation of honour. Mr. Gladstone laid 
 down two reasons for Insisting on the execution of the 
 Treaty of 1839 — the question of International mor- 
 ality, and " the common interest against the unmeas- 
 ured aggrandizement of any Power." Sir Edward 
 Grey used similar language in 19 14, when he said: 
 
 " I ask the House from the point of view of British Inter- 
 ests to consider what may be at stake. If France were beaten 
 to her knees, if Belgium, and then Holland and Denmark fell 
 under Germanic influence, would there not then be against 
 us an unmeasured aggrandizement of Germany, an incalcu- 
 lable menace." 
 
 From these sentences has been drawn a picture of 
 England like another Mr. Pecksniff dismissing Tom 
 Pinch, as a duty he owed to society. 
 
 The point has to be considered from two aspects : 
 the origin of the Treaty of neutrality, and the motive 
 which brought England into the war. The Treaty 
 
246 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 of 1839 '^^s, of course, not based upon pure altruism. 
 The Great Powers guaranteed the neutrality of Bel- 
 gium, not solely in her interest, but also in their own ; 
 and in the interests of Europe as well. When, in 
 1 8 15, the Congress of Vienna made Belgium a part 
 of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, it was with the 
 idea of creating a State strong enough to keep the 
 important harbours of the little kingdom from falling 
 Into the hands of any of the Great Powers. It was 
 done to prevent any one Power from gaining an 
 undue and dangerous advantage over her neigh- 
 bours. It was locking their doors at night against 
 each other. The revolt of Belgium against the 
 Netherlands In 1830 involved a review of the whole 
 situation. Belgium was beaten in her Civil War ; but 
 Europe decided, and rightly, that she should not be 
 forced to retain a connection imposed upon her in 
 1 8 15 for the general convenience of Europe, as much 
 as for her own safety. Then came a difficulty. The 
 severance of Holland and Belgium weakened both, 
 and the original idea of a strong buffer State had to 
 be abandoned. How then was the idea of a buffer 
 State, on which all were resolved, to be maintained 
 at all? Holland was in a position of comparative 
 security through her geographical position, but Bel- 
 gium had no such security; she was, so to speak, on 
 the highway. For centuries she had been the battle- 
 field of Europe, both because she was convenient for 
 the purpose and because she was a desirable posses- 
 sion. Unless something was done, she would con- 
 tinue to the end of time to be an international prize- 
 ring. Undoubtedly the misery of her situation af- 
 fected the decision of the Powers to make her a 
 neutral State in perpetuity, but the controlling reason 
 was their resolve to make It Impossible for any State 
 '. — France then was most suspect — to possess itself 
 
THE QUINTUPLE TREATY 247 
 
 of Antwerp. Thus the neutrality of Belgium, like 
 her union with Holland in 18 15, had its origin, in 
 part, in the self-interest of the Great Powers. It 
 was, in fact, a repetition, in altered form, of the Con- 
 vention of the 15th November, 18 15, under which 
 English and Prussian garrisons might occupy certain 
 fortresses in the Netherlands in case of trouble with 
 France. This itself was only a modification of the 
 "Barrier Treaty" of 171 5, which permitted Hol- 
 land to occupy certain Belgian towns — Belgium then 
 belonging to Austria — for security against a French 
 attack. 
 
 When, therefore, Mr. Gladstone and Sir Edward 
 Grey combined the menace of aggrandizement with 
 the consideration of moral obligations, they were ad- 
 hering with the closest loyalty to the principle of 
 1839, a principle which lies at the bottom of Inter- 
 national Law. The guarantee of Belgian neutrality 
 was individual as well as collective, differing in this 
 respect from the case of Luxemburg, where the guar- 
 antee is collective ; where the failure of one guarantor 
 to fulfil his contract relieves the other guarantors of 
 their obligation. In the case of Belgium the failure 
 of one guarantor does not relieve the others ; and this 
 was arranged of set purpose, to prevent a guarantor 
 from evading responsibility for action should any of 
 the co-signatories violate the agreement. In no dis- 
 cussion of the violation of Belgian neutrality, there- 
 fore, could the question of individual interests be 
 kept out of sight. The maintenance of those inter- 
 ests and opposition to repudiation of the guarantee 
 were themselves obligations of honour. 
 
 The interests involved in the maintenance of Bel- 
 gium's neutrality are both broad and narrow — nar- 
 row, as they affect the position of an individual na- 
 tion, broad, as they affect the whole theory of the So- 
 
248 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 ciety of Nations. Ever since Grotius enunciated his 
 great theory — for the first time accepted by the 
 Treaty ofWestphalia in 1648 — there has developed 
 a code of International Law for the order- 
 ing of international relations, which is the only 
 thing standing between the world and anarchy. 
 That Law rests on the doctrine that all independent 
 civilized States are equal under it. These States may 
 and must differ in degree of strength and develop- 
 ment; but, like individuals in a community, they 
 are all possessed of equal rights; hence an agree- 
 ment made between a strong Power and a weak 
 Power is as sacred as that made between States of 
 equal strength. It is clear, however, that the sanc- 
 tions of this law are not the same in the case of States 
 as with individuals, for there is no supreme Power 
 to enforce it. It depends upon /the maintenance of 
 international equilibrium, upon the Balance of 
 Power; for it is obvious that if and when any one 
 nation reaches an unchallengeable supremacy of 
 power it is automatically freed from the sanctions of 
 International Law. The individual may rise to the 
 greatest heights of dignity and wealth, but there is al- 
 ways the State to punish him for wrongs done to his 
 fellows. Not so with the supreme State; there is 
 none to curb it, its only law is the law of its own mak- 
 ing, as Treitschke (and Machiavelli before him) 
 cheerfully maintains. 
 
 There are only two ways by which international 
 anarchy or absolutism can be averted, both of them 
 dependent on the maintenance of the Balance of 
 Power. The first is that the whole of the world 
 shall be parcelled out in equal shares between certain 
 great Powers ; the other is that the liberties and rights 
 of small nations shall be respected and shall be pro- 
 tected against infraction by those interested in resist- 
 
THE BALANCE OF POWER 249 
 
 ing the aggressive State. The latter alternative is 
 that which responds to every natural instinct of 
 justice, and it is the one adopted by the leading jurists 
 of every country. A high German authority, Geff- 
 cken, strongly insists on the impossibility of safe- 
 guarding International life where one State has su- 
 preme preponderance over all the others : ^ a calamity 
 to be avoided by other nations being sufficiently 
 strong to prevent it. He further holds that, since the 
 absorption of small States must increase the chances 
 of collision between the great States, the preserva- 
 tion of these small States should be one of the main 
 factors in the true Balance of Power; always pro- 
 vided that the small States are fit and able to govern 
 themselves. The modern Germanic doctrine, as has 
 been abundantly shown in earlier pages, runs directly 
 counter to these generally accepted ideas. It rests on 
 the theory that only in Power does a State reach its 
 highest morality; that weakness is a vice ; and that the 
 protection of weak States by such devices as arbitra- 
 tion is unscientific, since it opposes the doctrine of the 
 survival of the fittest. 
 
 Many sins of course have been committed in the 
 name of the Balance of Power, as many have been 
 committed in the names of Liberty and Religion. It 
 has been the pretext for aggressive war ; it has been 
 used to cover and excuse the annexation and partition 
 of small States. In 18 15 it was the reason for the 
 union of Belgium with Holland; but it has also been 
 the origin of wars which have preserved for Europe 
 all the liberty she possesses — the Hundred Years 
 War begun by Edward III; the Elizabethan War 
 against Spain; the War of the Spanish Succession; 
 the struggles of the eighteenth century; the Napo- 
 
 1 Geffcken. Note In his edition of Europaische Volkerrecht. 
 
^5o THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 Iconic Wars. Singularly enough, in almost all of 
 them, the possession of Belgium was a prime factor. 
 Our historic co-operation with Belgium in the cause 
 of liberty against tyranny is indisputable. For at 
 Waterloo, Belgian forces were included in Welling- 
 ton's army, in the iron determination to break for 
 ever the power of a monarch bent upon world 
 dominion. That was in 1815, and a hundred years 
 afterwards we are breaking the ambitions of another 
 Emperor who would wear the giant's robe of the 
 universal ruler. Such revolts against limitless ambi- 
 tion are periodical. They are not simply material in 
 their aim; they spring from something higher than 
 envy or greed; they are incident to evolution. The 
 German, Ranke, enunciates this truth in his History 
 of the Popes, as follows: " When any principle or 
 power, be It what It may, alms at unlimited supremacy 
 in Europe, some vigorous resistance to It, having Its 
 origin In the deepest springs of human nature. Invari- 
 ably arises." The Emperor William would have 
 done well to have read his Ranke with more humility 
 and understanding.^ 
 
 Undoubtedly It was England's Interest to protect 
 Belgium and maintain European equilibrium, as it 
 was to Germany's Interest to Invade Belgium with 
 the purpose of upsetting that equilibrium. The dif- 
 ference Is this, that to maintain her. Interest Britain 
 kept the faith; to advance her Interests Germany 
 broke her most solemn engagements. How far, 
 then, does the German argument help the German 
 
 2 Holzendorff in his Handbook of International Laiv describes the 
 Treaty of London, which guaranteed Belgian neutrality, to be " a 
 landmark of progress in the formation of a European polity," and 
 adds that " nothing could make the situation of Europe more in- 
 secure than an egoistical repudiation by the great States of those 
 duties of international fellowship." Ill; pp. 93, 109. 
 
ACCUSES ENGLAND 251 
 
 cause? That England was selfish in doing right 
 would not justify Germany in being dishonourable. 
 
 But was England selfish? Was self-interest the 
 dominant motive which brought her into the field? 
 Dr. von Bethmann-Hollweg has no doubt on the 
 subject. Assuming the authority of a thought- 
 reader, in the extraordinary document published in 
 New York on the twenty-fifth of January, 19 15, he 
 declares that — 
 
 " England drew the sword only because she believed her 
 own interests demanded it. Just for Belgian neutrality she 
 would never have entered the war. That is what I meant 
 when I told Sir Edward Goschen . . . that among the 
 reasons which had impelled England into war, the Belgian 
 neutrality treaty had for her only the value of a scrap of 
 paper." 
 
 It must be said at once with regret that the German 
 Chancellor is not a credible witness. As Sir Louis 
 Mallet remarked of the German Ambassador at Con- 
 stantinople, '^ Every statement he makes must be 
 received with caution." He promised Belgium to 
 respect her neutrality and broke his word; he made 
 his famous speech of August 4th, 19 14, to the Reich- 
 stag, and then tampered with it, because certain 
 words gave the lie to excuses framed to justify the in- 
 vasion of Belgium ; and in this very interview he dis- 
 credits his own reliability by falsely describing Yar- 
 mouth, Sheringham, Scarborough and Whitby, as 
 " Towns equipped with arsenals, batteries and other 
 military establishments." His account of the inter- 
 view with Sir Edward Goschen is a gross perversion. 
 Not one word did Herr von Bethmann-Hollweg say 
 of British interests in that interview. It was British 
 quixotry, not British selfishness, which he arraigned. 
 That this is the correct reading of his complaint is 
 
252 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 proved by Sir Edward Goschen's reply to the 
 harangue. He did not attempt to defend his coun- 
 try from the accusation of self-interest, because it 
 was never brought against it by the Chancellor. 
 What Sir Edward Goschen said was this : 
 
 " In the same way as he and Herr von Jagow wished me 
 to understand that for strategical reasons it was a matter of 
 life and death to Germany to advance through Belgium and 
 violate the latter's neutrality, so I would wish him to under- 
 stand that it was, so to speak, a matter of life and death for 
 the honour of Great Britain, that she should keep her solemn 
 engagement to do her utmost to defend Belgium's neutrality 
 if attacked. That solemn compact simply had to be kept, 
 or what confidence could anyone have in engagements given 
 by Great Britain in the future." 
 
 That was the moment for the German Chancellor 
 to have ridiculed this moral attitude. But he did 
 nothing of the kind. He asked, '' But at what price 
 will that compact have been kept? " Sir Edward 
 Goschen, in reply, said that, " Fear of consequences 
 could hardly be regarded as an excuse for breaking 
 solemn engagements." ^ 
 
 It is further important to observe that Sir Ed- 
 ward Goschen's account of his farewell interview 
 agrees entirely with Great Britain's attitude through- 
 out the pre-war negotiations. There were four par- 
 ticular occasions on which Sir Edward Grey warned 
 Germany that British neutrality was not to be 
 counted on in the event of war. On July 29th he 
 gave a warning to Prince Lichnowsky in quite gen- 
 eral terms to the effect that events might draw Eng- 
 land In, though that would certainly not occur if 
 neither Germany nor France were engaged.^ On 
 
 3 British White Book, No. 160. 
 
 4 British White Paper, No. 89. 
 
WARNINGS TO GERMANY 253 
 
 July 30th he made his answer to the " infamous pro- 
 posal " which affected both France and Belgium.^ 
 On July 31st he asked France and Germany to state 
 their intentions towards Belgium,^ and on August ist 
 he told the German Ambassador that he very much 
 regretted the reply of Germany to that request, " be- 
 cause the neutrality of Belgium affected feeling in 
 this country." He added that if Germany would 
 promise, as France had done, to respect Belgian neu- 
 trality, it would materially contribute to relieve anx- 
 iety and tension In Great Britain. On the other 
 hand, were one combatant to violate Belgium while 
 the other did not, it would be extremely difficult to 
 restrain public feeling in the country. He certainly 
 could not pledge Great Britain to remain neutral, 
 even if Belgian neutrality were respected; but the 
 Government would be largely guided by public opin- 
 ion, and public opinion would be greatly influenced 
 by the neutrality of Belgium.*^ While Sir Edward 
 Grey was using this language to Germany, he was in- 
 forming France that, though Great Britain might — 
 perhaps would — be drawn into war on her side, he 
 could not give France any pledge of assistance.^ 
 Even so late as August 2nd he only gave a promise of 
 help to France, contingent on certain naval activities 
 of Germany, adding that, — 
 
 " The Government felt that they could not bind themselves 
 to declare war upon Germany necessarily, If war broke out 
 between France and Germany to-morrow." 
 
 On that occasion also he made a very striking 
 statement. M. Cambon had asked him about the 
 
 5 British White Paper, No. loi. 
 ^ Ibid., No. 114. 
 ■^ Ibid., No. 123. 
 ^ Ibid., No. 119. 
 
254 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 neutrality of Luxemburg, and to this he assumed the 
 attitude of Lord Derby and Lord Clarendon in 1 870 ; 
 but when questioned about Belgium, his answer was 
 decisive and momentous : 
 
 " I said that was a much more important matter ; we were 
 considering what statement we would make in Parliament to- 
 morrow — in effect, whether we should declare violation of 
 Belgian neutrality to be a casus bellu' ^ 
 
 Throughout the negotiations Sir Edward Grey 
 was admirable in his consistency. He drew a sharp 
 difference between England's obligation to France 
 and her obligation to Belgium. The former was one 
 of interest, yet he felt strongly the question of 
 honour; for France had denuded her northern and 
 eastern coasts of naval protection in pursuance of the 
 policy of the Triple Entente; England's obliga- 
 tion to Belgium, however, was peremptorily one of 
 honour, though, from the standpoint of British inter- 
 ests, the absorption of Belgium by any of the Great 
 Powers could not be ignored. Furthermore, his 
 despatches of July 29th and 30th reflect with remark- 
 able accuracy the position of the nation at large. 
 There was a considerable public which thought the 
 Government over-cautious and dilatory in their atti- 
 tude towards France; but there was also a section 
 which regarded it from an opposite point of view. 
 As events proved, however, all parties were united 
 in the question of Belgium. 
 
 This is in the last degree significant. From the 
 standpoint of material interests the maintenance of 
 French power, which in 1875 ^^^h England and Rus- 
 sia had declared should not be crushed when Ger- 
 many threatened it again, was more important in one 
 
 9 British White Paper, No. 148. 
 
MR. ASQUITH STATES THE CASE 255 
 
 sense than the maintenance of the neutrality of Bel- 
 gium. The man in the street could argue that, even 
 if Germany annexed Belgium — which she had 
 sworn not to do — she would only acquire a single 
 port and a short coastline, very annoying, no doubt, 
 but not more formidable to England — perhaps not 
 so formidable — as the occupation of the Pas de 
 Calais and the Cotes du Nord. This also was to 
 take no account of the compHcation and trouble which 
 would follow the annexation by Germany of the 
 French Colonies in Northern and Western Africa 
 and Indo-China. From the material standpoint, 
 therefore, the overthrow of France was in the com- 
 mon eye a graver danger than the infraction of Bel- 
 gian neutrality — the lesser thing — which united 
 the whole nation in a demand for war. Why was 
 this? There is only one answer — because the in- 
 vasion of Belgium by Germany established the moral 
 standard of the war. It placed before the people, as 
 nothing else could do, the question of right and 
 wrong, of honour and dishonour, and bade them 
 make their choice. They made it unhesitatingly, — 
 even those who hated war most and held that even 
 self-interest could never condone it — because they 
 saw a moral wrong being done which sanctified war 
 and made bloodshed righteous. 
 
 Never In all our long history did Minister more 
 truly represent the feehng of the people than Mr. 
 Asquith when he told the Parliament of Great Britain 
 that war had been declared: 
 
 *' If I am asked what we are fighting for I reply in two 
 sentences. In the first place to fulfil an honourable obliga- 
 tion which, If it had been entered upon between private per- 
 sons In the ordinary concerns of life, would have been re- 
 garded as an obligation not only of law but of honour, which 
 
256 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 no self-respecting man could have repudiated. I say, sec- 
 ondly, we are fighting to vindicate the principle w^hich, in 
 these days when force, material force, sometimes seems to be 
 the dominant influence and factor in the development of man- 
 kind, we are fighting to vindicate the principle that small 
 nationalities are not to be crushed, in defiance of international 
 good faith, by the arbitrary will of a strong and overmaster- 
 ing Power. I do not believe any nation ever entered into a 
 great controversy — and this is one of the greatest history will 
 ever know — with a clearer conscience and stronger convic- 
 tion that it is fighting not for aggression, not for the mainte- 
 nance even of its own selfish interests, but that it is fighting in 
 defence of principles, the maintenance of which are vital to 
 the civilization of the world. With a full conviction, not 
 only of the wisdom and justice, but of the obligations which 
 lay upon us to challenge this great issue, we are entering into 
 the struggle." 
 
 One more witness shall be called to show how our 
 honourable obligation towards Belgium has always 
 overborne the mere question of self-interest. Mr. 
 Gladstone is accused of having mentioned the word 
 " interest" in connection with Belgium, as has been 
 already said; but Mr. Gladstone of all British states- 
 men was perhaps the most pronounced in his pacifism. 
 Not seldom In his career did his deep love of peace 
 sway his policy In a direction dangerous to British 
 Interests. But on the question of Belgium he used 
 language not unworthy of Chatham; and this not 
 from the point of British Interest but the wider in- 
 terests of civilization. In a letter to John Bright In 
 1870 he spoke of the violation of Belgian territory as 
 something which would amount to an " Extinction of 
 public right In Europe." He declared that England 
 could not look on while, " The sacrifice of freedom 
 and Independence was In course of consummation." 
 Also, speaking in the House of Commons, he used 
 these words: 
 
"A VERY EXCITABLE CHANCELLOR" 257 
 
 "We have an interest In the independence of Belgium 
 which is wider than that which we may have in the literal 
 operation of the guarantee. It is found in the answer to the 
 question whether, in the circumstances of the case, this coun- 
 try, endowed as it is with influence and power, would quietly 
 stand by and witness the perpetration of the direst crime that 
 ever attainted the page of history, and thus become partici- 
 pators in the sin." 
 
 Such were the principles which in 1870 had guided 
 Mr. Gladstone. They guided Sir Edward Grey in 
 the negotiations in July, 19 14; and he expounded 
 them to the nation on the third of August of that 
 year. 
 
 It was that speech and its reception which, in his 
 own words, " excited and aroused " the German 
 Chancellor. As Sir Edward Goschen described him 
 in his account of the famous interview of August 4th, 
 " He was excited, evidently overcome by the news of 
 our action, and little disposed to hear reason." 
 Herr von Bethmann-Hollweg now says (to the 
 American newspaper) that what so discomposed him 
 was ^' seeing the hopes and work of the whole period 
 of my Chancellorship going for naught." It was not 
 because Germany was at war with France and Russia 
 that he was upset, because that was already a fact; 
 but because he saw Great Britain entering the lists on 
 their behalf. He bewailed the failure of his efforts 
 to reach an understanding with England, to which the 
 United States might later have been a partner. 
 This, he declared, would have made a general war 
 impossible and have guaranteed absolutely the peace 
 of Europe. 
 
 By this statement alone may be gauged the credi- 
 bility of the German Chancellor. The arrangement 
 he wished with Great Britain would not have made 
 war impossible, but would have made the victory of 
 
258 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 Germany certain. As Mr. Asqulth pointed out at 
 Cardiff,^^ England offered to bind herself not to be 
 party to any aggression against Germany; but she de- 
 clined to pledge herself to be neutral in case of ag- 
 gression by Germany. Will anyone, in face of what 
 has occurred, believe that the peace of the world 
 would have been assured by an arrangement which 
 tied the hands of Great Britain and left Germany ab- 
 solutely free to do her worst? It was the failure of 
 that plan which shook the nerve of him who plotted 
 it, which caused him such shocked surprise. 
 
 Opening a history of England well nigh at random, 
 he might have read how England had fought, regard- 
 less of the cost, for the independence of Belgium and 
 for the sanctity of treaties from 1338 to 18 15. But 
 even dismissing the wars of Edward III, of Eliza- 
 beth and of Anne as ancient history, as wars fought 
 entirely for the maintenance of the Balance of 
 Power, he need only have gone back a century and a 
 quarter to find Pitt asserting the sanctity of inter- 
 national obligations. In 1792 France annexed the 
 Austrian Netherlands and opened the Scheldt, in 
 which Holland had a monopoly of navigation under 
 the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648. Horrified as she 
 had been by the excesses of the French Revolution, 
 England had stood by and had left France to work 
 out her own salvation ; but when the Netherlands was 
 attacked she broke silence in words that Sir Edward 
 Grey might have used in 19 14: 
 
 *' England will never consent that France shall arrogate 
 the power of annulling at her pleasure, and under the pre- 
 tence of a pretended natural right, of which she makes herself 
 the sole judge, the political system of Europe, established by 
 
 10 Mr. Asquith, speech at CardiflF, October 2nd, 19 14. See ch. ix 
 of this book. 
 
ENGLAND'S CONSISTENCY 259 
 
 solemn treaties and guaranteed by the consent of all the Pow- 
 ers." 11 
 
 For that principle she went to war with the Re- 
 public. Eleven years later Napoleon threatened the 
 independence of Holland and Switzerland. The one 
 was England's rival in commerce, in the latter she 
 had no interest at all; but their independence and 
 neutrality had been guaranteed by treaty; and Great 
 Britain demanded that those treaties should be re- 
 spected. Napoleon answered, like the present Ger- 
 man Chancellor, " Holland and Switzerland are only 
 trifles." Possibly they were, in comparison with Na- 
 poleon's Empire; but on behalf of those small na- 
 tionalities England entered upon a war which lasted 
 for nearly eleven years. Then, as now, she fought 
 for a scrap of paper. Had the nickel Napoleon of 
 Potsdam read wisely the history of his great proto- 
 type, his Chancellor might not have been so aghast 
 with surprise in August last. 
 
 Dr. von Bethmann-Hollweg may not be an his- 
 torian, but he presumably knows something of the 
 work of his own Foreign Office during the last half 
 century. He knew the view England took of the 
 Treaty of 1839 in 1870; how, at the instance of Mr. 
 Gladstone, temporary treaties, reaffirming Belgian 
 neutrality, were made between England and Germany 
 on the one side and England and France on the other. 
 Those treaties were remarkable in their nature. Un- 
 der them England bound herself, if either belligerent 
 violated Belgian neutrality, to co-operate with the 
 other. She did not " count the cost "; she did not 
 study on which side her advantage lay, she was ready 
 to fight with France or with Germany on the one 
 simple issue — the Treaty of 1839. If, with all 
 
 11 Cambridge Modern History, Vol. VIII, p. 304. 
 
26o THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 these things before him, the Chancellor still doubted 
 the influence of honour on British policy, if to him 
 her action was " unthinkable," he must blame his own 
 ignorance or his own moral obliquity for the fatal 
 mistake. 
 
 The weight of evidence goes to show that it was 
 the morality of the Chancellor which was at fault. 
 So little could he comprehend the attitude of Great 
 Britain that he described her action as cowardly and 
 treacherous, saying that, *' It was like striking a man 
 from behind while he was fighting for his life." It 
 is quite true that Germany is fighting for her life. 
 That is because she had not expected England to join 
 Russia and France. On her own estimate she would 
 not have been fighting for her life if the opponents 
 of the new Dual Alliance had been only Russia and 
 France. It is, therefore, treachery to prevent the 
 bully from having his own way, by taking a hand in 
 the game against him. Herr von Bethmann-Holl- 
 weg might have reflected that, after all, the inten- 
 tion of the neutrality treaties of 1839 and 1870 was 
 to provide a power to punish a nation which in- 
 fringed them ; and that Great Britain had thrice given 
 notice of her resolve to enforce them. 
 
 But who was this statesman that he should talk of 
 morality, coming hot-foot from the Tribune in the 
 Reichstag where he had set forth his justification of 
 the violation of Belgium's neutrality, admitting the 
 wrong of it, but pleading necessity, as Germany had 
 to hack her way through. That atrocious utterance 
 has been most justly condemned by the world. It 
 deprives its author of all claim to be a censor of 
 other people's morals, but it has one merit: it is bare- 
 faced, and so far is preferable to many another 
 apologia for Germany's action. To be sure the 
 Chancellor does mar the perfect cynicism of his state- 
 
THE WOLF AND THE LAMB 261 
 
 ment by suggesting one excuse ; and it is a falsehood. 
 " France," he said, " stood ready for invasion." 
 That is not true. When war was declared the whole 
 of the French forces, in accordance with the plan of 
 concentration, was disposed between Belgium and 
 Belfort; thus confronting Germany, and nothing but 
 Germany. The invasion of Belgium by Germany dis- 
 located the French plans, and enforced a redistribu- 
 tion of her armies. ^^ So unready was France to enter 
 Belgium that she was unable to aid the Belgians; she 
 was unable even to save her own fortresses, or to 
 withstand the onslaught for weeks after Germany had 
 invested Liege. 
 
 Let us for a moment turn to an incident at Brussels 
 on August 3rd, the day before the Chancellor spoke 
 in the Reichstag. At 1.30 A.M. Herr von Below 
 awakened Baron van der Elst, the Belgian Secretary- 
 General for Foreign Affairs, in order to tell him that 
 a patrol of French cavalry and some French dirigibles 
 had crossed the frontier. " Where did this hap- 
 pen?" asked the Baron. " In Germany,'' was the 
 reply. The Belgian official naturally pointed out 
 that in that case it was no concern of Belgium, and 
 that he could not understand the object of the com- 
 munication. Herr von Below's explanation was 
 that the acts were of such a nature as to suggest that 
 other acts contrary to international law would be 
 perpetrated by France. 
 
 These unproved and apocryphal acts, in any case 
 unconnected with Belgium — it was not even alleged 
 that the dirigibles had flown over Belgian territory 
 — were the sole basis of Herr von Bethmann-Holl- 
 weg's charge that France intended to invade Bel- 
 gium. In any case, Germany's obvious duty was to 
 
 12 French official reply to General Bernhardi, March 24th, 1915. 
 
262 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 wait until French soldiers had crossed the Belgian 
 frontier, and then to step forward as the champion 
 of Belgium, calling on Great Britain to fulfil her 
 obligations under the treaties of neutrality. Had 
 that happened, it is as certain as anything can be that 
 France, by her violation of neutrality, would have 
 forfeited the support of Great Britain, and Germany 
 would have arrayed the moral sense of the world 
 upon her side. Germany did not take this obvious 
 course, because she knew that France would not play 
 into her hands ; and that the military policy of France 
 was framed upon the inviolability of Belgian neu- 
 trality, with the security it gave her on her north- 
 eastern frontier. The German Chancellor con- 
 cealed this knowledge under the words, " France 
 could wait, but we could not wait," though later 
 these phrases were dishonestly deleted from the re- 
 port of his speech, because of their fatal significance. 
 " France could wait." Of course. She had to wait 
 for the slow mobilization of her army; but if delay 
 was essential to her, what became of the argument 
 that she was about to hurl troops into Belgium? 
 
 The German Chancellor accused Great Britain of 
 *' treachery " in maintaining the neutrality of Bel- 
 glum; but let us consider for a moment Germany's 
 " loyalty " in violating it? We need not repeat the 
 story of the Treaty of 1839 or of the temporary 
 Treaty of 1870; we can take up the tale in 191 1, 
 while Herr von Bethmann-Hollweg was Chancellor. 
 In that year the question of Belgian neutrality was re- 
 opened. Discussing the fortification of Flushing, 
 some Dutch newspapers had said that Germany 
 would violate the neutrality of Belgium In case of a 
 war with France. Thereupon the Belgian Foreign 
 Office suggested that if the German Chancellor would 
 take the opportunity of a debate on foreign policy to 
 
GERMANY'S REPEATED PLEDGES 263 
 
 make a reassuring statement in the Reichstag, it 
 would calm public opinion in Belgium and tend to 
 maintain friendly confidence. Herr von Bethmann- 
 Hollweg demurred to making a pubHc statement, 
 since it might induce France, secured on her north- 
 eastern frontier, to concentrate her military efforts 
 on the east; but he declared that, " Germany had no 
 intention of violating Belgian neutrality." 
 
 Again, on April 29th, 19 13, there was a discussion 
 on foreign affairs in the German Reichstag, in which 
 one of the Socialist members raised the question, ob- 
 serving that, in view of the growing danger of a 
 Franco-German war, Belgium was afraid that Ger- 
 many might infringe her neutrality. The German 
 Foreign Minister replied that the neutrality of Bel- 
 gium was established by international conventions, 
 and that Germany " had decided to respect those con- 
 ventions." This, however, did not satisfy the So- 
 cialist thirst for information, so Herr von Heeringen, 
 the Minister for War, intervened, and said: 
 
 *' Belgium has no part in justifying the German scheme 
 of military reorganization; that justification is found in the 
 eastern situation. Germany will not lose sight of the fact 
 that Belgian neutrality is guaranteed by international con- 
 ventions." ^^ 
 
 We now come to July, 19 14. On the 31st, when 
 things were drifting towards war, the Belgian Gov- 
 ernment reminded Herr von Below, the German 
 Minister at Brussels, of the conversations of 191 1. 
 He replied that he was well acquainted with them, 
 " And that he was certain that the sentiments then ex- 
 pressed had not changed." 
 
 Three days later, on August 2nd, when war had 
 already begun, the Belgian Foreign Minister en- 
 
 13 Belgian Grey Book, Enclosure in No. 12. 
 
264 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 countered Herr von Below and told him of the prom- 
 ise given by France to respect Belgian neutrality. 
 The German Minister thanked him for the informa- 
 tion, adding that up to the present he had had no 
 instructions to make an ofEcial communication to the 
 Belgian Government; but that ** We knew his per- 
 sonal opinion respecting the security with which we 
 had the right to regard our Eastern neighbours." ^* 
 At seven o'clock in the evening of this very day that 
 same Minister presented Germany's ultimatum to the 
 Belgian Government! 
 
 Five days earlier — on July 29th — the German 
 Chancellor had evaded the Belgian question when 
 he made the '* infamous proposal"; three days ear- 
 lier Herr von Jagow had refused to give an answer 
 on the subject without consulting the Emperor and the 
 Chancellor, though he was doubtful if any answer at 
 all would be given, as it might disclose Germany's 
 military plans.^^ 
 
 Quite so. In order that Germany might safely 
 weave her military schemes, which her Minister of 
 War had declared took no account of Belgium, the 
 Chancellor not only kept silence, but allowed, if he 
 did not actually instruct, his representative at Brus- 
 sels deliberately to deceive his intended victim by 
 false assurances. He did the same thing in Luxem- 
 burg. There the German Minister, on July 31st, 
 when asked by M. Eyschen for an undertaking that 
 Germany would respect the neutrality of Luxemburg, 
 replied, " That goes without saying, but the French 
 Government must give the same engagement." ^^ 
 This the French Government did; but Germany in- 
 
 1* Belgian Grey Book, No. 19. 
 15 British White Paper, No. 12a. 
 1^ French Yellow Book, No. iix. 
 
MAKING BLACK WHITE 265 
 
 vaded Luxemburg only a few hours after the Min- 
 ister's soothing assurances. After that, the fore- 
 sworn German Chancellor has the hardihood to talk 
 of " treachery '* and " stabs in the back." A bur- 
 glar, extensive as his experience may be, is well ad- 
 vised if he be silent on the subject of jemmies and 
 skeleton keys. 
 
 This reflection seems to have suggested itself to 
 some friends of Germany since the war began. Per- 
 ceiving that the Chancellor's sturdy repudiation of 
 the sanctity of treaties has failed to commend itself 
 to plain men, who hold that a promise is a promise 
 and a contract a contract, these casuists have been at 
 pains to prove that there was really no contract at all ; 
 and that the promise was, therefore, no longer bind- 
 ing. There is a fashion in these things. There will 
 always be found ingenious writers to prove that Nero 
 was the innocent victim of an artistic temperament; 
 that Richard Crookback was really a man of com- 
 manding presence and fine honour, who smothered 
 his nephew from high patriotic motives. " Let us 
 only conquer," said Frederick the Great, when he 
 violated the neutrality of Saxony in 1756; " the poli- 
 ticians will then find plenty of justification for us." 
 
 Since August last the politicians have been busy 
 trying to save Herr von Bethmann-Hollweg from 
 himself, with indifferent success. Their pleas are 
 drawn upon lines familiar to the criminal courts. 
 They plead not guilty first, because the Treaty of 
 1839 had lost its binding force; secondly, because, 
 though still effective, it had been violated by France 
 and England; thirdly, because though it may not have 
 been violated by any one, Belgium refused to violate 
 it in Germany's favour! It would be sufficient to 
 point out that these arguments are mutually destruc- 
 
266 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 tlve; but It Is necessary to deal with them, especially 
 with the second, If only to show by their flimslness 
 how desperate Is the case for Germany. 
 
 The first argument — that the Treaty of 1839 was 
 no longer operative — may be dismissed In a very 
 few words. It has been said that Prussia was ab- 
 solved from her pledge when she entered the North 
 German Union, as Is proved by the fact that Great 
 Britain was compelled to have France and Germany 
 sign a second Treaty of Neutrality In 1870; and that 
 the engagements of the North German Union did not 
 bind the German Empire which, as a fact, has never 
 guaranteed Belgian neutrality. There Is no founda- 
 tion for such Ignorant statements. The temporary 
 Treaty of 1870 explicitly stated that, on Its expira- 
 tion, *' The Independence and neutrality of Belgium 
 will, so far as the high contracting parties are re- 
 spectively concerned, continue to rest as heretofore 
 on the first article of the Quintuple Treaty of the 
 nineteenthof April, 1839." 
 
 In these words the North German Union took 
 over Prussia's obligations towards Belgium and, as 
 has been shown, the German Empire reaffirmed those 
 obligations In 191 1, also In 19 13, and again last 
 year. Herr von Bethmann-Hollweg himself admit- 
 ted It on August 4th, 1 9 14, when he said that the 
 action of Germany was " contrary to the dictates of 
 International law." 
 
 It Is perhaps significant that these attempts to pal- 
 liate the Invasion of Belgium are made by non-Ger- 
 manic apologists. The German, less harassed by In- 
 ternational rules, disdains such hair-splitting. He Is 
 content, like Herr Dernburg, to say that " treaties 
 must not be overrated," that they must be disre- 
 garded in national emergency; or, like the Chancellor, 
 
DID BELGIUM INFRINGE NEUTRALITY 267 
 
 to regard them as paper spills to be used as pipe- 
 lights by Necessity. 
 
 Let us for a moment take the place of the German 
 Chancellor, imbued with his aspirations and con- 
 fronted with a Treaty which made them unattainable, 
 and ask ourselves what our duty would be in order to 
 reconcile the advantage of our country with its treaty 
 obligations. Obviously the honourable course was 
 denunciation of the Treaty of 1839. Nations have 
 often denounced treaties when they became incon- 
 venient, — Great Britain has denounced treaties with 
 Germany which conflicted with her duty towards her 
 over-sea Dominions — and no taint of dishonour has 
 remained. The Treaty of 1839 contained a pro- 
 vision for such an event. It was, therefore, open to 
 Germany to announce that she withdrew from her 
 position as a guarantor of Belgian neutrality. Of 
 course she could not honourably have done so last 
 July, because it is not permissible to pretend adher- 
 ence to an agreement until the only moment when it 
 becomes actively operative. Germany, however, 
 never denounced the Treaty, not even at the eleventh 
 hour; up to the last she professed her loyalty to it. 
 By so much is her guilt the greater and the possibility 
 of palliation the less. 
 
 The champions of Germany construct a second line 
 of defence — that Germany. was justified in invading 
 Belgium, because Belgium had already infringed her 
 neutrality. Now, Belgium could only have Infringed 
 her duties as a neutral before Germany crossed her 
 frontier, because when that was done there was no 
 neutrality to infringe. Belgium was bound by her 
 obligations to her guarantors not to enter Into any 
 agreement which would be an infraction of her neu- 
 traHty; and there is no evidence whatever to show 
 
268 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 that she did so. Therefore, suggestions that there 
 were " French officers in Liege and other Belgian 
 fortresses after war had begun " falls to the ground. 
 But in view of Herr von Bethmann-Hollweg's fa- 
 mous speech on August 4th, the question need not be 
 argued. The Chancellor wanted then to make out 
 the best case he could, and it would have been worth 
 anything to him to have proved Belgium's infidelity. 
 Neither then, nor in his communications with Bel- 
 gium before the war, did he even suggest any breach 
 of international right. His only attempt to justify 
 the " wrong" was to charge France — not Belgium 
 — with the intention of breaking neutrality. He 
 had no complaint to make of Belgium's conduct. 
 Belgium had, indeed, been scrupulous to avoid any 
 cause of offence, however slight. On August ist, the 
 Belgian people were naturally nervous and excited. 
 They saw themselves faced with grave danger. One 
 nev/spaper, he Petit Bleu, commented on the inter- 
 national situation in a tone friendly towards France, 
 and immediately — on August 2nd — the Govern- 
 ment seized every copy, on the ground that the tone 
 of the paper was unneutral. On the previous day 
 the Minister of the Interior ordered all local authori- 
 ties to prohibit meetings intended to show sympathy 
 or antipathy for any Power ; and to stop all military 
 cinematograph exhibitions. Thus, critically inter- 
 ested though they were, the Belgians were the only 
 people in the world who were not allowed to express 
 publicly any opinion on the war. 
 
 While the apologists of Germany were thus 
 floundering between a cynical assertion of necessity 
 which mankind rejected, and charges of infidelity 
 against Belgium which they could not prove, happy 
 chance provided them with an argument, of which 
 they have made the most. Herr von Bethmann- 
 
THE GREAT MARE'S NEST 269 
 
 Hollweg displayed It sensationally in his famous in- 
 terview with the representative of the Associated 
 Press last January.^^ 
 
 " England ought really to cease harping on the theme of 
 Belgian neutrality. Documents on the Anglo-Belgian mili- 
 tary agreement which we have found in the meantime show 
 plainly enough how England regarded this neutrality. As 
 you know, we found in the archives of the Belgian Foreign 
 Office papers which showed that in 191 1 England was de- 
 termined to throw troops into Belgium without her assent if 
 w^ar had then broken out — in other words, to do exactly the 
 same thing for which, with all the pathos of virtuous indigna- 
 tion, she now reproaches Germany." 
 
 The first thing that strikes one in the Chancellor's 
 statement is that it entirely refutes his own conten- 
 tion. In one sentence he tells us that England had 
 determined in the event of war, to throw troops into 
 Belgium "without her assent"; in another he says 
 that England had made an " agreement " with Bel- 
 gium to do so. How can these two statements be 
 reconciled? If England was resolved to invade Bel- 
 gium without Belgium's consent, would she have 
 worked out a military plan of Invasion with the Bel- 
 gian War Office? If the Belgian War Office were 
 parties to such a scheme, how can it be said that 
 Belgium was to be invaded willy-nilly? If then, 
 there was an agreement with Belgium, the Chan- 
 cellor's parallel between England and Germany is 
 nonsense. 
 
 The Chancellor cannot justly be blamed for in- 
 capacity to see how the above assertions contradict 
 one another; that is his misfortune. But he must be 
 condemned for the suppression of an all-important 
 fact. On the margin of the document discovered in 
 
 1'^ See London newspapers, January 26th, 1915. 
 
270 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 Brussels appears this note, endorsed on it by the Bel- 
 gian War Office : 
 
 " The entry of the English into Belgium would only take 
 place after the violation of our neutrality by Germany." ^^ 
 
 The importance of this marginal note is obvious. 
 It shows that Great Britain had no intention of 
 violating Belgian neutrality; and that any military in- 
 tervention was contingent on Belgium having first 
 been invaded by Germany; which is precisely the con- 
 tingency provided for in the Treaty of 1839, to which 
 Germany was a party. It was not by accident or 
 design that the Chancellor omitted to mention this 
 note. In the reproduction of the document in the 
 German Press, the marginal note was not printed at 
 all. Herr von Bethmann-Hollweg boldly gives a 
 gloss of his own making, when he says, " If war had 
 then broken out." Poor argument this. It was 
 not war which was to justify British intervention in 
 Belgium, but the violation of her neutrality. 
 
 This marginal note does more than regulate British 
 intervention; it explains in the clearest way the real 
 nature of the document. It was not an agreement 
 between the two countries, it was not even a record of 
 diplomatic conversations; it was a record of purely 
 technical discussions between General Ducarne of the 
 Belgian War Office and Colonel Barnardiston, then 
 Military Attache to the British Legation in Brussels. 
 So informal was it that no copy of it is filed at the 
 British Foreign or War Offices. 
 
 These military discussions took place in 1906 and 
 191 1. At both of these periods there was con- 
 siderable friction between France and Germany re- 
 specting Morocco. As in 1870, and in 1914? the 
 
 18 Sir Edward Grey's statement In reply to the German Chancel- 
 lor, January 27th, 1915. 
 
ANGLO-BELGIAN CONVERSATIONS 271 
 
 possibility of trouble between these nations recalled 
 to Great Britain her obligations under the treaty of 
 neutrality. In 1870 it drove Mr. Gladstone to con- 
 sider the problem of landing 20,000 men on Belgian 
 soil. In 1906 It impelled General Ducarne, Chief of 
 the Belgian General Staff, to study, as was his duty, 
 measures to enable Belgium, either alone or In con- 
 junction with her guarantors, to resist violation of 
 her neutrality. At the same time It Induced Colonel 
 Barnardiston to ask General Ducarne this natural 
 question : " Is Belgium prepared to resist a German 
 invasion? '* 
 
 The answer was remarkable and significant. Bel- 
 gium was sensitive, jealous of her honour, proud In 
 her resolve to defend herself, punctilious in her de- 
 sire to avoid any semblance of collusion. And, In 
 this sense, General Ducarne replied to Colonel 
 Barnardiston that Belgium was prepared to defend 
 herself, at Liege against Germany, at Namur against 
 France, at Antwerp against England ! In speaking 
 thus the Belgian Chief of the Staff was only putting 
 into military terms the warnings which his Govern- 
 ment had addressed to the Ambassadors of all the 
 Powers ; in which it declared its formal intention of 
 compelling respect for Belgian neutrality by every 
 means at Its disposal. The same resolution was 
 shown In the remark made by the Belgian Chief of 
 Staff to Colonel Barnardiston, — " You could only 
 land In our country with our consent." ^^ 
 
 That having been made clear, General Ducarne ex- 
 plained the resources on which Belgium relied. If 
 she was compelled to defend herself single-handed. 
 And then, as was his right, and, indeed, his duty, he 
 asked the British Military Attache what steps Eng- 
 
 19 Sir Edward Grey. Reply to Herr von Bethmann-Hollweg, 
 January 27th, 1915. 
 
272 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 land was prepared to take to fulfil her treaty obliga- 
 tions should the neutrality of Belgium be infringed. 
 Thereupon ensued those strategical discussions, after- 
 wards embodied by General Ducarne in the Memo- 
 randum " discovered " in Brussels and now paraded 
 as a corrupt agreement between Great Britain and 
 Belgium. 
 
 What was done by General Ducarne and by Col- 
 onel Barnardiston is the course professionally fol- 
 lowed by the General Staffs of every nation in the 
 world. Plans of campaigns against all possible an- 
 tagonists and under all possible conditions are worked 
 out years ahead, pigeonholed, and revised from time 
 to time to meet altered circumstances. Belgium, as 
 has been shown, had made plans to resist invasion 
 from Germany, France or England. Germany had 
 made elaborate plans to invade France through Bel- 
 gium, building strategical railways through sparsely 
 populated country, and making military dispositions 
 with that object in view. All that the Anglo-Belgian 
 conversations meant was that each of the two nations 
 could make their plans in full knowledge of what the 
 other could do in an event especially provided for by 
 Treaty. The Conversations involved no engage- 
 ment between the two countries, and did not in any 
 degree bind Great Britain to take action. Her only 
 obligation was contained in the Quintuple Treaty. 
 
 A military arrangement, to take effect on the In- 
 vasion of Belgium, was no Infringement of obliga- 
 tions; on the contrary It was a course which Belgium 
 and her guarantors were bound to take. Why did 
 not Germany confer with Belgium as to the possibility 
 of her neutrality being violated? She was bound to 
 contemplate the possibility of that Invasion. It was 
 her duty, therefore, to do what England did. By her 
 obligations to the guarantors Belgium was bound to 
 
GERMAN DESIGNS ON BELGIUM 273 
 
 resist invasion, and they were bound to help her in 
 such an event. Belgium was entitled to ask her 
 guarantors what they were prepared to do; and they 
 in turn were entitled to demand that she should be 
 prepared to resist invasion. It was colossal effron- 
 tery of Germany to protest against military plans be- 
 ing formed for the maintenance of Belgium's neu- 
 trality, while she had been planning for years to in- 
 vade it, either by force of arms or with Belgium's 
 permission. Her strategical railways and her com- 
 mercial exploitation of Belgium were means to that 
 end. 
 
 What was the position? The neutrality of Bel- 
 gium lay in no danger of violation save in the case of 
 a Franco-German War. In such event the initiative 
 would certainly lie with Germany; indeed Germany 
 avowedly relied on the possession of the initiative for 
 success, and she intended to use it. When Herr von 
 Jagow and his Chancellor said last year, " Russia and 
 France can afford to wait, but Germany cannot," they 
 were only repeating what had been enforced in thou- 
 sands of German military books. Therefore, Ger- 
 many was sure to be the first to enter Belgium, if it 
 was entered at all. As to the latter there was little 
 doubt. So far back as 1875 the invasion of Belgium 
 was contemplated by Germany. Writing to Sir Rob- 
 ert Morier, British Envoy at Munich, on March 
 27th, 1875, when a Franco-German war seemed im- 
 minent. Professor Geffcken said, " There is to be a 
 great coup, and Belgium is the object. . . . He (Bis- 
 marck) is resolved to annihilate Belgium." 
 
 But more than this : the invasion of Belgium was 
 no part of the strategy of France. Her numerical 
 inferiority, an inferiority which her stationary popu- 
 lation would accentuate every year, imposed on her 
 the necessity of fighting on the narrowest possible 
 
274 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 front as essential to her defensive policy. Thus she 
 concentrated her efforts in making her eastern 
 frontier impregnable, to the neglect of the Belgian 
 marches. Had she entertained the design of attack- 
 ing Germany through Belgium she would not have 
 left the Trouee de Chimay; she would not have re- 
 lied on fortresses like Maubeuge. Also, Belgium 
 had this further guarantee for the loyalty of France 
 — that, in 1870, when a violation of Belgian soil 
 would have averted the disaster of Sedan, and might 
 have enabled France to rally her armies for a fresh 
 effort, she submitted to a humiliating catastrophe. 
 
 Germany, on the other hand, superior in numbers, 
 relied on the aggressive, and therefore aimed at fight- 
 ing on a broad front. As Von Jagow said to Sir Ed- 
 ward Goschen, it was a matter of life and death to get 
 into France by the easiest and quickest way. To 
 have tried to force the French frontier further south 
 would have meant delay and heavy losses. 
 
 At last Belgium, suspicious, made her own plans to 
 meet the most probable danger; and, England, sus- 
 picious also, made inquiries which she was bound to 
 make if she was to be an effective guarantor ; but there 
 was no concerted action with Belgium, as the Belgian 
 Minister in London has publicly declared. Prepara- 
 tion to resist violation of neutrality is a natural obli- 
 gation on all concerned, and especially on the part of 
 any guarantor who suspects the fidelity of any co- 
 guarantor. 
 
 Lastly, as if conscious that all these ingenious 
 apologies for Germany must fail, her champions fall 
 back on a plea that might well bring a blush to the 
 cheek of an honest man. " After all," they say, 
 " Belgium has only herself to thank for what has be- 
 fallen her. If she had not listened to England, if she 
 had allowed Germany to march through Belgium, she 
 
THE TEMPTATION OF BELGIUM 275 
 
 would have suffered nothing; indeed she would have 
 been money in pocket. She could have been mer- 
 chant, broker, and contractor for Germany." 
 
 What a light is thrown on German political mor- 
 ality by such an argument gravely advanced by philos- 
 ophers, economists, scientists, historians, statesmen, 
 merchants, even theologians ! It is as though a man, 
 on trial for killing a policeman, were to say, " It was 
 the silly fool's own fault. If he had only let me rob 
 the shop, he would have been all right; he might even 
 have had a bit of the swag." 
 
 That is almost literally the position. Belgium was 
 bound to be true to her own neutrality. It had been 
 declared not in her own interest alone, but in the 
 interests of Europe. For the sake of that she had 
 enjoyed three-quarters of a century of peace, to which 
 her land had long been a stranger. In return for 
 that benefit, her duty demanded that she should give 
 to no State an advantage which might injure others. 
 Had she regarded her obligation as a scrap of paper, 
 she might have saved herself much sacrifice ; but she 
 would have betrayed her trust, and her name would 
 have been a byword among the nations. 
 
 The temptation to yield to Germany's demand for 
 a free passage was not slight. The Flemings were 
 of Teutonic blood; the Walloons were offended by 
 the policy of France towards the Church to which 
 they were passionately attached; throughout the 
 country was a strong Socialist Party with a leaning to- 
 wards anti-militarism. Great Britain, by her criti- 
 cism of Congo administration, had lost some of her 
 former popularity. The people had become ad- 
 dicted to the arts of peace ; they knew by old tradition 
 how terrible war could be, though they were still un- 
 conscious of the depths of infamy which it could 
 reach. By submission they could purchase tran- 
 
276 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 quillity and they could make large gains. They were 
 promised that their territorial integrity and inde- 
 pendence should be respected, and that they should 
 get generous compensation for any injury they might 
 sustain. 
 
 And they refused. They refused it before war be- 
 gan, and they refused it twice after it began. They 
 did not balance; they did their duty; they kept the 
 faith. The words of the Belgian reply will ring in 
 the aisles of Time until there is no more Time at 
 all: 
 
 " Belgium has always remained faithful to her interna- 
 tional obligations; she has fulfilled her duties in a spirit of 
 loyal impartiality; she has left nothing undone in order to 
 maintain or to secure respect of her neutrality. The attack 
 upon her independence with which the German Government 
 threatens Belgium would constitute a flagrant violation of 
 International Law. No strategic interest justifies the vio- 
 lation of that Law. If the Belgian Government accepted the 
 proposals which are put forward in the German Note, it 
 would sacrifice the honour of the nation, and would, at the 
 same time, betray its trust towards Europe." 
 
 We know the sequel, its cruelty, its horror, its bar- 
 barism. The world shudders, and through long 
 years it will shrink, from the thought of what this lit- 
 tle country has suffered from being true to her trust. 
 She has, however, done more than prove her own 
 loyalty to her plighted word and her treaty obliga- 
 tions ; she has aroused the conscience of mankind, she 
 has kindled a torch that will not be extinguished. 
 
 It seems to be a law of life, mysterious and sombre, 
 that man can only win forward through the suffering 
 of the innocent. All the Reformations, political, so- 
 cial, religious, have been built on the bones and 
 cemented by the blood of martyrs. Great causes 
 have been advanced as much by misery as by valour, 
 
MARTYRDOM 277 
 
 by the patent consequences of Wrong as much as by 
 the Proclamation of Right. When Belgium gave 
 her answer to Germany she set a great example and 
 gave a splendid message to mankind. It may be that, 
 to be effective, it had to be sealed and sanctified by 
 her sorrow. 
 
CHAPTER XIV 
 
 THE SEDUCTION OF TURKEY 
 
 War was declared between the Allies and Turkey on 
 October 30th, 19 14. It was the astonishing end of 
 an astonishing situation, which had its ludicrous as 
 well as its tragic side. Here was a country, existing 
 and likely to exist for long, on sufferance as a Euro- 
 pean Power, plunging into war, when her first inter- 
 est was peace ; and choosing for the mad adventure, 
 not the moment when her friends were at the flood 
 of fortune, but when the tide had begun to ebb, when 
 victory was moving farther and farther away from 
 their standards. From the standpoint of German 
 need the moment was not ill-chosen for Germany, but 
 on the Turkish side it was an act of doom. 
 
 It is here that the farcical side of the incident shows 
 so garishly. Turkey went to war against her will. 
 There have been cases where a Monarch has dragged 
 an unwilling people into war, where a Cabinet have 
 forced a war, or where, as in the days of Walpole, 
 the people have compelled their ruler to make war. 
 In Turkey, however, the Sultan, the Cabinet, and the 
 people wanted peace, and yet they have stripped 
 themselves naked for the struggle. The country will 
 have to give the shirt from its back; it will be a na- 
 tion only in name; it will be in pawn to a ruthless 
 usurer. It will never be able to redeem its integrity 
 if Germany should win; and if she loses there will be 
 no Turkey at all. She has sold herself for thirty 
 pieces of silver, and in the end she must hang herself. 
 The incongruity of the position is increased by the 
 fact that Turkey went to war at the bidding of one 
 
 278 
 
NEW FRIENDS FOR OLD 27^ 
 
 who was no Turk, and to support the one great 
 Power in Europe whose aims are most inimical to her 
 interests. 
 
 The day has long passed since the Turks were the 
 menace of Europe, thundering at the gates of Vienna 
 and threatening to emulate the conquering Huns. 
 For years Turkey has depended for her position in 
 Europe on the support of those whose ancestors once 
 trembled at the coming of the Turcoman hordes. 
 During the period of her decadence her natural allies 
 have been the Western Powers. They saved her 
 more than once — in 1855 and 1878 — from com- 
 plete destruction; they offered her advice which, had 
 she followed it, would have spared her shame, loss 
 and suffering. It need not be pretended that the 
 Powers were disinterested in the course they took; 
 but they asked of Turkey no more than that she 
 should exist, and to behave herself so that her ex- 
 istence might be prolonged. They asked for no ex- 
 hausting concessions, they sought no territorial ag- 
 grandizement at her expense; however selfish their 
 motives may have been, it was not Turkey which had 
 to suffer for them. It was in the interest of the 
 Western Powers, such as France and Great Britain, 
 that Turkey should be strong, while it was to the in- 
 terest of Russia that she should be weak, or, better 
 still, be expelled from Europe. As for Germany, 
 she had no interest in Turkey save that which she 
 manufactured to serve her suddenly developed ambi- 
 tions in Persia and Asia Minor. She was not a 
 Mediterranean Power. She had no Eastern posses- 
 sions ; unlike Great Britain, she was not concerned to 
 avoid anything which might rouse ill-will in Islam; 
 her interests in South Eastern Europe were defined 
 by Bismarck as not worth the bones of a Pomeranian 
 Grenadier, and Germany is not supposed to attach 
 
28o THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 great value to the life of her soldiers, in units or in 
 masses, as this war has shown. 
 
 Prince Bismarck fell, and with him the era of 
 purely domestic aggrandizement. As shown in a 
 previous chapter, Germany made excursions now 
 here, now there, in the world, prospecting for Em- 
 pire. She picked up a few colonies, imposing in ex- 
 tent, which enabled her to talk in a large way of Co- 
 lonial Empire, but she did nothing else. German 
 genius does not inchne towards the work of the 
 pioneer. It can organize, but it cannot create, im- 
 provise or initiate successfully. 
 
 But Germany did not court Turkey merely for 
 territorial aggrandizement, she intended also to make 
 use of her as an instrument of war. Probably the 
 direct military value of Turkey would not be great, 
 but indirectly her assistance might be priceless. The 
 German Military Memorandum of March 19th, 
 1 9 13, is emphatic on the necessity of preparing for 
 war by breeding discontent among the Moslem com- 
 munities. It contains the following illuminating 
 paragraph : 
 
 " It is absolutely necessary that we should open up relations, 
 by means of well chosen organizations, with influential people 
 in Egypt, Tunis, Algeria and Morocco, in order to prepare 
 the measures which would be necessary in the case of a 
 European war." 
 
 It was a dirty policy, this, of fomenting disloyalty 
 in the territories of nations for whom Germany pro- 
 fessed friendship, and so it seems to have appeared, 
 even to the German Government, for the Memoran- 
 dum adds : 
 
 " Whether we like it or not, it will be necessary to resort 
 to preparations of this kind in order to bring a campaign 
 rapidly to a conclusion." 
 
THE PURCHASE PRICE 281 
 
 Egypt was especially to be favoured with these 
 attentions, since " more and more it serves as a bond 
 between the intellectuals of the Mohammedan 
 World." \ 
 
 Turkey is not mentioned in that remarkable pro- 
 gramme, probably because she had already been 
 squared. In order to obtain the adhesion of the 
 Mohammedan World, the capture of the head of 
 Islam was clearly necessary. There followed de- 
 voted efforts to make the capture. 
 
 Turkey was delighted. Like Danae, she was en- 
 veloped in a shower of gold. . No small number of 
 debts, written off as bad, were paid. Altruistic Ger- 
 man officers reorganized the army; Krupp suppHed 
 cannon. The Germans not only showed the Turk 
 how to order his household, but displayed sympathy 
 with the new democratic idea most astonishing in 
 view of their attitude towards social democracy at 
 home. With the new Young Turk regime came a 
 breaking-away from Turkey's old protectors. Ger- 
 many became her friend, infinitely more zealous, 
 more generous, more useful than ever they had been. 
 To people so beneficent, so ready to bear the heat 
 and burden of administration, so sufficiently strong 
 to avert all fear of the hereditary enemy, a conces- 
 sion for a railway, which would enrich and open up 
 Asia Minor, was a small return. 
 
 It is impossible to think that Turkish statesmen, 
 who are not simple, did not see that the account for 
 all these good things would have to be settled; but 
 it did not trouble them sorely. A nation which bor- 
 rowed money to build the Osman and the Rechadie 
 at twenty per cent., would not look too curiously at 
 the price of Germany's good services. If ever the 
 
 1 French Yellow Book, No. 2. 
 
282 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 idea that Germany might try to push commercial 
 penetration into political control crossed the minds 
 of the few wise men, they probably reflected that at 
 such a time they could play off England and France 
 against Germany, and so escape the penalty of their 
 recklessness. 
 
 But one thing escaped their notice. The penetra- 
 tion of Asia Minor would not be of much value to 
 Germany until she acquired an overland road thither. 
 As she could not sail round past Dover and Gibraltar 
 and Malta, she must perforce march via the Balkans 
 and Constantinople. And to do that she found it 
 necessary to connive at the ruin of Turkey in Eu- 
 rope. It was a shady, shabby business, so shady and 
 shabby that probably Turkish statesmen, who are 
 none too nice in their own diplomatic methods, hesi- 
 tated to attribute it to Germany. However, there 
 it was : Germany not only allowed, but encouraged 
 the Balkan States to strengthen themselves at Tur- 
 key's expense, and even went so far as to tie the 
 hands of her ally, Austria, while the Balkan League 
 bent to their task. That Germany over-reached 
 herself; that In trying to clear her road to Constan- 
 tinople she substituted for the Turks a formidable 
 Slav Confederation flushed with victory; that, again, 
 in trying to undo this in her usual bungling way, 
 she made Serbia an Irreconcilable enemy, is neither 
 here nor there. The point is that her diplomacy in 
 the Balkans had behind it the intention of commer- 
 cial development, to be followed by political control 
 in Asia Minor; and that the price which Turkey 
 would have to pay for German protection was noth- 
 ing less than her national independence. 
 
 Turkey's decision to help Germany and Austria 
 against the Alliance Is all the more remarkable from 
 the fact that while the Allied Powers could attack 
 
A SUICIDAL INFATUATION 283 
 
 her, the German Powers could do little or nothing 
 to protect her. Russia could attack her in the Black 
 Sea and the Caucasus, France and Britain could 
 harry her on the Mediterranean coasts, Greece had 
 the tempting islands of the i^gean to incite her, and 
 the Balkan States might readily depart from their 
 neutral attitude to pick up what remained of Euro- 
 pean Turkey. Should all this happen, neither Aus- 
 tria nor Germany could move a battalion or a battle- 
 ship to her aid. She would have to fight it out on 
 her own, bankrupt of cash and credit. 
 
 Even if victorious, what was she to gain? Which 
 of her lost provinces was to be restored to her? 
 Who was to make good the cost of the war? Was 
 It quite certain that she would not actually be a loser 
 by the victory of Germany? Austria in 1866 had 
 bitter cause to regret her alliance with Prussia in 
 1864. History, in spite of the proverb, does some- 
 times repeat itself. Nor was it so certain that Ger- 
 many would win. In August Turkey might have 
 felt confident, but a good deal had happened between 
 the triumphant march from Mons and the 30th of 
 October. 
 
 Nor was Turkey under any necessity to go to war 
 to save herself from Indignity or wrong. No attack 
 was directed at her. She had the guarantee of Eng- 
 land, France and Russia that her integrity and Inde- 
 pendence should be preserved; and these were the 
 only Powers which had a chance of violating her in- 
 tegrity and maintaining that violation. Yet she went 
 to war. Sir Louis Mallet had an Interview with the 
 Turkish Minister of the Interior on September 6th, 
 in which he neatly summed up the position. 
 
 '' I told him that I had been informed that the Turkish 
 Government attached no importance to the written declara- 
 
284 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 tion which I and my French and Russian colleagues had made 
 them respecting their integrity. I was greatly surprised at 
 this attitude, but personally somewhat relieved, as to guarantee 
 the integrity and independence of Turkey was like guar- 
 anteeing the life of a man who was determined to commit sui- 
 cide." 
 
 In justice it must be said that, although the Turk- 
 ish Government debated for six weeks before com- 
 mitting the rash act, they committed it unwillingly. 
 They had no desire to end their country's existence, 
 they were not even impelled to risk it for their own 
 political welfare, and yet they " sold the pass." One 
 man and two ships were their undoing. The ships 
 were the Goehen and the Breslau, the man was Enver 
 Pasha. 
 
 Enver Pasha is one of those men who float to the 
 surface in times of political disturbance, especially 
 perhaps in Oriental countries. His ability and vanity 
 vary in an inverse ratio. Though of mediocre tal- 
 ent, he is pushing, brave, of picturesque appearance., 
 and gifted with the highest arts of the window- 
 dresser. Restless, popular, not over-handicapped 
 with scruples, eager for power and the wealth which 
 helps to power, he was the ideal agent of Germany's 
 designs. Germany is ever on the look-out for such 
 instruments. When she finds a Beyers or an Enver 
 she knows precisely how to play the music that will 
 lure him. By a coincidence too happy to be acci- 
 dental, Enver was Minister of War in August last. 
 
 The two German cruisers found themselves in the 
 Mediterranean at the same moment. Their move- 
 ments when the war broke out were curious and ap- 
 parently aimless. In the Teuton way, now familiar 
 to the world, having bombarded leisurely an open 
 town or two in Northern Africa, they did not dash 
 for the Atlantic to assist the Karlsruhe in preying 
 
MISSION OF THE GOEBEN 285 
 
 upon commerce, or to join Admiral Spec's Squadron, 
 as might have been expected. Instead, they touched 
 at Messina, sailed out in martial trim with bands 
 playing, and promptly made for the Dardanelles. 
 They were destined for a greater purpose than even 
 the slaughter of innocent non-combatants so popular 
 in the navy to which they belonged. 
 
 From the moment they entered the Dardanelles on 
 August loth the fate of Turkey was settled, because 
 her neutrality was compromised. There is no doubt 
 that it was for that purpose they took refuge in Turk- 
 ish waters. It was hoped that the Allies would be 
 Irritated into action; but when this hope failed the 
 German vessels were sent out to commence warlike 
 operations. That, in brief, is the story of the mis- 
 sion of the Goehen and the Breslau. But these ves- 
 sels did more even than that; they became the means 
 of forcing Turkey into war. 
 
 There is not In the history of diplomacy any more 
 curious story than that of this coercion. It brings a 
 whiff of the Arabian Nights into the prosaic Chan- 
 celleries of the twentieth century. Perhaps to that 
 factor may be due in some degree the success of Ger- 
 man diplomacy, at Stamboul, which stands in sharp 
 contrast to its clumsy failure throughout the pre-war 
 negotiations In every other capital. Truth is, that 
 German diplomacy, through lack of political ability 
 in its foreign agents, Is unsuited to modern condi- 
 tions, as Prince Biilow has in effect admitted. It Is 
 also biassed by the belief that other nations are de- 
 cadent; that they have lost their ideals; that Ger- 
 many has a monopoly of merit ; and it Is further im- 
 bued with the ancient Prussian lust of war for the 
 sake of war, and war for the sake of gain. 
 
 Such theories do not tend towards pliancy In nego- 
 tiation, nor do they make for a high standard of 
 
286 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 honour. Want of dexterity is balanced by want of 
 scruple plus a mailed fist. To be successful, this 
 diplomatic method depends on the correctness of the 
 theories on which it is based. It will succeed if the 
 nations to which it is applied are really decadent, 
 devoid of ideals and unscrupulous. It will fail when 
 it comes against a people which is virile, which has 
 a sense of right, and which cannot be corrupted. 
 
 Thus it is that the methods which failed in London 
 succeeded in Constantinople. The soil, naturally 
 adapted to the Teutonic seed, had been carefully cul- 
 tivated, and the ambassadorial farmer seems to have 
 been aptly chosen. It is not often that one Ambassa- 
 dor has to write of a colleague as Sir Louis Mallet 
 wrote of the German Ambassador in Constantinople : 
 
 " I think he may be telling the truth ; but every statement 
 he makes must be received with caution." 
 
 That this was no exaggeration is clear from Sir 
 Louis Mallet's story: 
 
 ** The German Embassy daily emits a stream of mendacity 
 and calumny, which is circulated through the country by the 
 Turkish newspapers, all of those in the Capital being in the 
 pay of the German Embassy as a result of the large sums 
 spent by it in corruption both in Constantinople and in the 
 provinces." ^ 
 
 One of the stories was that Japan had only agreed 
 to assist Great Britain in return for free immigration 
 into the Pacific Coast, a free hand in China and a 
 loan of £40,000,000. Another was that there had 
 been a revolution in India. Such diplomatic meth- 
 ods would be shady enough if Turkey were already at 
 war and they were designed to keep up the public 
 enthusiasm, but to use them in order to lure into 
 
 2 White Book on Rupture with Turkey, No. 70. v 
 
CONSPIRATORS AT WORK 287 
 
 war a country whose first Interest was peace, which 
 desired peace, was an act of miserable turpitude. 
 
 The entire story is, indeed, intensely sordid, from 
 the false sale of the refugee cruisers to the bombard- 
 ment of Odessa. It may roughly be divided into 
 two parts: the period before October 26th, and the 
 three days following. During the first period the 
 German " Conspirators," to use Sir Louis Mallet's 
 description, proceeded mainly by negotiations mixed 
 with corruption. When those methods seemed likely 
 to fail, force was employed, and force availed. 
 
 From the opening of the war there was a " cer- 
 tain liveliness " in Turkey, partly due to the action 
 of the British Government in acquiring the Turkish 
 vessels then being built in England, but for the most 
 part probably the artificial result of subterranean in- 
 trigue. The sending of the Goehen and Breslau be- 
 longed to the plot. Ostensibly they were sold to 
 the Turkish Government, but they still remained in 
 charge of their German crews. German officers and 
 German money reached Constantinople. Though 
 neutrality was professed by the Government, it was 
 not observed. There were mysterious meetings be- 
 tween Enver Pasha and Bedouin chiefs; the Valis 
 of certain coast towns used language of menace to- 
 wards British naval commanders; untenable preten- 
 sions to territorial waters were advanced ; there was 
 even a large manufacture of Indian military uni- 
 forms, to be used by Turkish agents in Egypt. All 
 along the Nile Valley, from Cairo to Kordofan, 
 Turkish and German emissaries were busy, foment- 
 ing discontent among Arab chiefs, tempting officers 
 and civil servants with bribes, smuggling explosives 
 against the day when these seductions would bear 
 fruit. The Allies would have had ample excuse for 
 breaking off diplomatic relations any time during 
 
288 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 August, September and October. This, however, 
 they were resolved not to do. Their policy was 
 clearly to let the breach come, if it must come, from 
 Turkey herself. It was plain that Germany's ob- 
 ject was to create unrest among the Moslem peo- 
 ples of India and Africa. To have been impatient 
 with Turkey would have been to play Germany's 
 game. So it was that Ambassadors quietly endured 
 gross affronts. They knew themselves played with, 
 but they did their duty by pointing out how foolish 
 Turkey was to let herself be made a cat's-paw. 
 
 They warned Turkey of what would happen if she 
 sided with Germany and Germany was beaten. On 
 the other hand, they did not ask her to join the 
 Allies. They asked her neutrality, and for it they 
 promised a guarantee of her integrity and independ- 
 ence. All they said was plain and simple, all they 
 did was open and aboveboard. The wisdom of 
 their course has been justified by results. The world 
 of Islam with one accord has seen through German 
 intrigue, and has at once bewailed and condemned 
 the insensate folly of those who yielded to it. 
 
 Towards the end of October the Conspirators 
 found themselves compelled to take decisive action. 
 They had got as much money from Germany as they 
 were likely to get, and things were not going well 
 with the German armies. If Turkey was to be 
 brought in, it had to be then or never. Accordingly 
 they decided to bring matters to a climax by offer- 
 ing the Grand Vizier the alternative of complicity 
 or resignation. It would appear that this scheme 
 was abandoned, owing to the Russian victories on 
 the Vistula occurring about this time. 
 
 The ill-success of the German armies, indeed, 
 threatened to wreck everything. At a meeting of 
 the Committee Leaders on Oct. 26th, it was decided 
 
THE LAST CHANCE 289 
 
 to send Halil Bey, the President, on a mission to 
 Berlin; and this was regarded as a partial victory 
 for the Peace Party. Halil Bey did not go, how- 
 ever, because " of a more than usually blunt hint 
 from the German representative in Constantinople." 
 At this point, the War Party took matters into their 
 own hands. Two capital events occurred: a body of 
 2,000 Bed'ouins entered the Sinai Peninsula, with the 
 idea of making a raid on the Suez Canal; and Odessa 
 and other Russian ports were bombarded on Oct. 
 29th. 
 
 After this event the situation became hopeless. 
 As Germany had, a few months earlier, precipitated 
 war by her ultimatum to Russia, at the moment when 
 negotiation promised to bring about accommodation 
 between Russia and Austria; so now, for her own 
 ends, Turkey was dragged into a war to which her 
 Government, and probably the bulk of the people, 
 were opposed. But even then the Allies gave Tur- 
 key a last chance. The Grand Vizier, who, through- 
 out the piece, seems to have exaggerated his own in- 
 fluence or underestimated the strength of the un- 
 scrupulous forces opposing him, protested that he 
 could still undo the work of Enver, Talaat, and the 
 German Ambassador. Would the Allies await the 
 issue of a Council to be held that night at his house? 
 
 They waited, the Council was held, the Grand 
 Vizier and Djavid Bey fought for peace, and the ma- 
 jority of the Ministers upheld them; but nothing was 
 done. Nothing indeed could be done to avert war 
 save to dismiss the German naval officers and to expel 
 the German military mission. Germany's intrigues, 
 however, had been too effective, her bribery too 
 complete. The conspirators stayed, while the trusted 
 patriots repeated the crime of their forebears who 
 sold the Schipka Pass thirty-five years before. As in 
 
290 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 the old Arabian tale, Turkey was bestridden and 
 throttled by an incubus from which she never could 
 free herself. 
 
 On the fourth of November Tewfik Pasha took 
 leave of Sir Edward Grey. Even at that last mo- 
 ment, the door was opened for Turkey's retreat from 
 ruin. 
 
 '' I informed Tewfik Pasha," says Sir Edward 
 Grey, *' that if his Government wished that hostilities 
 between the two countries should cease, the only 
 chance was to dismiss the German naval and mili- 
 tary missions." A few days before this M. Sazonoff 
 had used the same language to the Turkish Charge 
 d'Affaires at Petrograd. It was of no avail. For- 
 bearance could go no further. Anger at Turkish 
 folly cannot altogether obliterate a feeling of pity for 
 the nation thus deceived and ruined by Germany's 
 remorseless and conscienceless policy. The responsi- 
 bility for what may happen lies, however, not with 
 the Allied Powers but with corrupt and misguided 
 Turkey, and with Germany the jungle enemy of civili- 
 zation. 
 
CHAPTER XV 
 
 SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE AND THE BALKAN 
 QUESTION 
 
 " To-day events move so rapidly that it is exceed- 
 ingly difficult to state with technical accuracy the 
 actual state of affairs, but it is clear that the peace of 
 Europe cannot be preserved." ^ 
 
 In one sense these words would have been almost 
 equally true at any time during the past decade, as 
 previous chapters will have indicated. The only real 
 change in European conditions on the afternoon of 
 the third of August, 19 14, was one of swift accelera- 
 tion. Events slowly moving over a lengthened past 
 had come to sudden climax. In spite of outward 
 seeming Europe had not been at peace for many 
 years. To say that two hostile armies camped within 
 sight of each other's camp fires, are at peace, merely 
 because they await the dawn before exchanging shots, 
 is an illusion; and that had been the state of Europe 
 since the beginning of the twentieth century, through 
 causes already discussed; through ambitions and poli- 
 cies now familiar to the world. In all those trem- 
 bling years there was, to all anxious Europe, a recog- 
 nized source from which fatal disturbance might 
 spring. The festering wound in the South Eastern 
 States was spreading year by year its malignant influ- 
 ence through the diseased body of Europe. In the 
 end it did the worst that all men feared. What the 
 apparition in shining armour and the cruise of the 
 
 1 Sir Edward Grey, in the House of Commons, August 3rd, 1914. 
 
 291 
 
292 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 Panther, each In turn, had failed to produce, the 
 pistol shot In Serajevo brought on with Incredible 
 rapidity. The truth about that crime, could it be 
 known, would furnish a key to the whole enigma. 
 But that truth cannot be known now. With a hide- 
 ous conflict testing the endurance and virtues of na- 
 tions, it will make clearer the whole situation if we 
 recall the main incidents in the grim, yet inspiring 
 story of the growth of nationality in the Balkans; if 
 we again take note of the forces which make the story 
 grim. 
 
 The history of the nations and races of Balkan 
 territory is a prolonged chronicle of discontent, op- 
 pression and violence; of dishonour and treachery; 
 but also of high ideals and fervent patriotism. All 
 that incalculable turmoil of passions and ambitions, 
 vices and virtues, has come from one evil thing — the 
 long-continued and never successful attempt at the 
 despotic domination of one race by another. That 
 is the germ of the Balkan disease. 
 
 It has taken five centuries to drive the Turk from 
 tyranny over all South Eastern Europe to his present 
 final clutch on the nethermost extremity of that land. 
 Through long years the inhabitants and rightful 
 owners of those trampled territories suffered a misery 
 of wrongs and persecutions, from which it is one of 
 the wonders of history that they have survived with 
 any remnant of ambition, or even of racial self-con- 
 sciousness. The Turks had early discovered what 
 has ever been the besetting sin of the Balkan people, 
 their afflicting proneness to jealous division among 
 themselves. Taking advantage of this by every 
 means known to a despotic nation, ruling a numeri- 
 cally and spiritually superior people, they long con- 
 trived to hold the territory against aggression from 
 without and in spite of Internal rebellion. Even now 
 
THE BALKAN AWAKENING 293 
 
 that the Ottoman Empire has passed away from Eu- 
 rope the evil heritage of that rule still broods upon 
 the land. The very peoples themselves, and, above 
 all, their later European masters have, to their shame, 
 assumed the traditions and usages of the Turkish 
 rule. 
 
 History will record it to the honour of the Serbians 
 that they were the first to summon the combined cour- 
 age and strength to rise against the Sultan. In 1804 
 Kara George, the swineherd, led them in successful 
 revolt. The Turks regained control in 1813 ; but at 
 last, in 1830, after many years of determined fighting, 
 the Serbians, strongly supported by Russia, achieved 
 political autonomy, though still remaining tributary 
 to the Sultan. The Greeks were the next to respond 
 in arms to the call of the national spirit, and 
 they actually attained complete independence before 
 Serbia. The Greek war of Independence, from 1 8 2 1 
 to 1829, ran a course of varied fortune, in which, at 
 the end, the courage of the little nation, aided by the 
 moral and material encouragement of the greater 
 Powers, succeeded in casting off the foreign yoke. 
 The negotiations and interventions succeeding this 
 war finally resulted In conflict between Russia and 
 Turkey. In the end Greek Independence was firmly 
 guaranteed, and the European possessions and power 
 of the Sultan suffered severe shrinkage. Through 
 the Intercession of Russia the Danublan principalities 
 of Moldavia and Wallachia became practically inde- 
 pendent. From these events and their accompanying 
 animosities and ambitions came another Russo-Tur- 
 klsh struggle In 1853, which led directly to the Cri- 
 mean War. 
 
 In all these years of strife the spirit and freedom 
 of the separate Balkan States persisted and Increased 
 through crime and turmoil, surviving every check of 
 
294 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 their own or other's making. Each upheaval and 
 each readjustment brought to some one of them 
 greater independence, and, usually, to all of them 
 greater discontent and ambition. Out of the 
 Crimean War emerged the semi-independent State 
 of Roumania ; the result of national consciousness and 
 ambition awakened among the kindred peoples of the 
 two adjoining States, Moldavia and Wallachia. In 
 1862 these united under one ruler and assumed the 
 name Roumania. After a few years of civil strife 
 they chose as king a member of the Roman Catholic 
 branch of the Hohenzollerns. In the early years of 
 his reign King Charles developed a vigorous and 
 liberal policy in the affairs of his country; and espe- 
 cially achieved Important results in the organization 
 of his army, with Prussian equipment and under Prus- 
 sian instruction. His success in this largely contrib- 
 uted to the influential position which Roumania has 
 since held in Balkan affairs. It is important to re- 
 member this German element in the person of the 
 ruler, and in mlHtary affairs, when appraising Rou- 
 manla's relations with her neighbours. 
 
 In 1875 Turkish oppression, driven to desperate 
 measures by losses of territory and revenue, brought 
 on a revolt in Herzegovina, aided and encouraged by 
 the Slavs of Bosnia, Serbia, Montenegro, Bulgaria, 
 and even Hungary. In the following year the vio- 
 lence of the situation was Increased by revolutions at 
 Constantinople, with attendant outbreaks of religious 
 and racial fanaticism in outrage and massacre. The 
 Christians in Bulgaria, no longer able to endure their 
 intolerable situation, rose In rebellion. The Turks 
 retaliated with a fury of bloodshed and atrocity which 
 horrified Europe. Then It was that Mr. Gladstone 
 denounced " the unspeakable Turk " and urged the 
 expulsion of the Sultan from Europe. It remained, 
 
THE CONGRESS OF BERLIN 295 
 
 however, for Serbia and Montenegro to Initiate 
 action. They declared war against the Turks, and 
 thus gave encouragement to a general uprising in 
 Bulgaria. In the following year, Russia — the mass 
 of her people moved by sympathy with their suffering 
 kinsmen — brought her forces to bear against Tur- 
 key. Allied with Roumania, now claiming complete 
 independence, and with Serbia and Montenegro, the 
 Russians waged a victorious campaign almost to the 
 very gates of Constantinople. 
 
 These hostilities were concluded in 1878 by the 
 Treaty of San Stefant), In which Serbia, Montenegro, 
 and Roumania were recognized as independent, and 
 by which was created a self-governing State of Bul- 
 garia. This treaty was not to endure for long. It 
 pleased no one save the Russians and the Bulgars. 
 Each of the other States felt itself in some way af- 
 fected or injured by the redistribution of territories 
 and boundaries; and the greater Powers became 
 mutually apprehensive and suspicious of the possible 
 advantages and increments to each other from these 
 rapid changes In Balkan affairs. To allay this com- 
 mon distrust, therefore, and with the Intention of con- 
 sidering all interests except those of the Sultan, who 
 was to be disregarded, the representatives of the 
 Powers met at the Congress of Berlin. 
 
 This Congress was a cold-blooded liquidation of 
 the Insolvent States of Turkey In Europe under the 
 " honest brokerage " of Bismarck. The only defi- 
 nite and permanent result was the demolishment, by 
 partition, of the Turkish domain. As an attempted 
 solution of the Balkan question It was a failure. 
 Most of what was done there was later undone or Ig- 
 nored; and what remained led only to further dissen- 
 sions among the several States and among the greater 
 Powers hovering over them. Montenegro, Serbia, 
 
296 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 and Roumania were given freedom from Turkish 
 suzerainty; but with such unjust arrangement of their 
 boundaries, in defiance of racial claims, as to give 
 them a source of discontent enduring for evil even 
 to the present day. Austria was allowed to 
 " occupy " Bosnia and Herzegovina in the interest 
 of the general peace. With what results we have 
 seen. 
 
 The failure of the decisions of the Congress of 
 Berlin was well shown in the case of Bulgaria. For 
 reasons best known to the Powers, the Northern Bul- 
 garians were separated from the Southern Bul- 
 garians, in spite of their racial and historical unity 
 and their very natural desires. It was attempted to 
 make the Bulgarians of the south forget they were 
 Bulgarians by the easy device of bidding them call 
 themselves Eastern Roumelians. The Provinces en- 
 dured this irrational arrangement for seven years, 
 and then disregarding the Treaty of Berlin, pro- 
 claimed themselves united; and they did it with such 
 spirit and determination that the Powers thought it 
 well not to interfere. Other events of the kind 
 form an important chapter in the history of every 
 Balkan war and revolt. In nineteenth century zest 
 for artifical nationality, one all-important truth was 
 continually overlooked or disregarded — honest 
 recognition of the fact that blood and tradition are 
 stronger than maps or treaties. 
 
 In the bloody years preceding the Berlin Congress 
 the greater European nations had been looking on 
 the South Eastern States with watchful eyes, now 
 helping here, now restraining there, in keeping with 
 their sympathies, national characteristics and aims. 
 England and France espoused the cause of Greece 
 from the impulse of their liberal and democratic prin- 
 ciples ; Russia supported the Slav and Christian every- 
 
PLAYING WITH BALKAN FIRE 297 
 
 where against the Mohammedan Turk. There were 
 other and intricate poHtical and commercial motives 
 on all sides. Very early, and to their sorrow, the 
 Powers learned how dangerous to their mutual rela- 
 tions was any intervention, however just or well in- 
 tended, in the troubled affairs of these small States. 
 After the Berlin Congress, however, these affairs, 
 thus brought into prominence before the world, as- 
 sumed growing importance in European politics. 
 The States, themselves, over-stimulated by a new 
 freedom, and irritated by the irksome arrangement of 
 their territories, fought continually with one another. 
 The opportunity for the ambitious Powers was irre- 
 sistible. Playing with Balkan fire became a diplo- 
 matic sport in South Eastern Europe. It was a dan- 
 gerous game. As the opposing forces in the Euro- 
 pean balance of power became more and more strictly 
 aligned into two hostile camps, and as the balance be- 
 came more and more finely adjusted, the Balkan ques- 
 tion grew in importance and perplexity. A jealous 
 scrutiny of the trend and turning of events there be- 
 came an essential policy for all. The slightest ac- 
 quisition of further control or influence by either 
 side threatened the equilibrium. 
 
 To Great Britain, with her world-strewn Empire 
 and her immense sea-borne commerce, there is al- 
 ways and everywhere the necessity of vigilantly pro- 
 tecting her interests and safety against the ambitious 
 operations of rival nations. Hence, while she has 
 rightly disclaimed any direct personal interest in the 
 internal affairs of the Balkans, she has, nevertheless, 
 been obliged to keep her careful attention upon that 
 region, because of the serious reaction which certain 
 developments might have upon her rights and pos- 
 sessions. The position of the Suez Canal, alone, 
 would have made this precaution necessary. 
 
298 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 Russia, on her part, in addition to her natural 
 championship of the Christian against the Moham- 
 medan and of the Slav against all oppressors, had 
 vital reasons for concern in South Eastern politics. 
 Her geographical position, and the climatically ham- 
 pered condition of her northern ports, made it essen- 
 tial that the trade routes to the south and east, so 
 necessary for her internal prosperity, should be 
 kept free of hindrance, to her commerce. To both 
 Russia and Great Britain, therefore, the affairs of 
 the Balkans have long been of grave moment. If 
 their separate claims and purposes have occasion- 
 ally brought them into conflict, history has for the 
 most part been frank to admit the justification on 
 both sides. 
 
 Strong influences have worked to make the policies 
 of Germany and Austria-Hungary in South Eastern 
 Europe of mutual and common interest and ad- 
 vantage. Austria, checked by Prussia in the north 
 and driven out of Italy in the south, turned her activi- 
 ties to the States on her eastern frontier as the only 
 opportunity for compensation and for future expan- 
 sion. In the interests of her commercial ambitions 
 she bent her energies towards the acquisition and de- 
 velopment of a direct trade route from Vienna to 
 Salonica. This route was to be so much under the 
 influence of Austria, that she should have free access 
 to eastern waters, with parallel control. To this 
 cherished project the two most serious obstacles were 
 Russian power and Serbian independence. Austria 
 had long been jealous of Russian influence, long ap- 
 prehensive of Russian policy in the Balkans. Every 
 increase of Russian power — and likewise every 
 growth of Balkan independence which accompanied 
 it — hampered the pursuit of Austria's commercial 
 designs. It has therefore been to Austria's advan- 
 
AUSTRIA'S POLICY 299 
 
 tage to support the Turk against Russian aggression; 
 to inflame further the easily kindled jealousies among 
 the separate States, so that in the end their weakness 
 might be her strength. It was also of grave concern 
 to her internally that every movement towards the 
 strengthening of the individual States, or of the 
 Slavonic races in general should be restricted. Free- 
 dom and contentment among the Balkan peoples 
 could come only at the expense of the Dual Mon- 
 archy. Austria-Hungary knew this, and acted ac- 
 cordingly. 
 
 It was Metternich who called Italy, in the days of 
 her weakness, " a geographical expression." That 
 great and sinister statesman, whose rule and doctrine 
 have been the unstable bulwark of Austria's strength, 
 might well have applied the term to his own nation. 
 Those very conditions which Italy overcame, Austria, 
 the last rallying-ground of feudalism, has preserved. 
 What she would not and could not recognize, she 
 has tried to strangle. To-day it is destroying her. 
 Look at the map of the Dual Monarchy. By its arti- 
 ficial obtrusiveness it is an offence and an aggression 
 to all her neighbours, a fatal infirmity to herself. In 
 a great jagged outline it stabs north into Galicia, east 
 into Roumania, south into the Slavonic territories of 
 Bosnia, Dalmatia, and Montenegro, and southwest 
 into Italy. A more illogical creation of conquest and 
 diplomacy could not be conceived. It is a colossal 
 impertinence in the face of all sanctions of race, re- 
 ligion, history, and common sense. The frontier of 
 Austria-Hungary is a living wound In the politics of 
 Europe. Across her borders, on every side, the 
 Monarchy is fronted by the animosities of States and 
 peoples compelled mutely to witness the bondage of 
 their kinsmen, raped from all natural associations 
 of blood and tradition to build up this " ramshackle 
 
300 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 empire." Within she is torn by the rage and hatred 
 of vassal subjects, chafing under oppression and 
 stirred to revolt by the sight of their free brethren in 
 the independent States. The cold statistical fact of 
 this precarious structure is, that twenty-one million 
 people rule over and attempt to control the thought 
 and the will, as they do the lives and liberties, of 
 thirty-two millions, with whom they have no ties or 
 relations save those they are able to impose by power 
 and might; while this ruling minority is again com- 
 posed of two utterly unassociated races with no 
 mutual sympathies save that of common support in 
 the task of suppressing the aspirations of their more 
 numerous dependants. In this task every means of 
 discrimination and oppression known to the history 
 of the Overlord has been used to postpone the in- 
 evitable readjustment. As the majority of this vast 
 subject population are of Slavonic blood, Austria- 
 Hungary has had to watch with growing appre- 
 hension the steady gain in strength and independence 
 of this race in the adjoining States; to combat it as 
 best she dared by all manner of intrigue and interfer- 
 ence, political, economic, and educational. This is 
 the long-drawn, sullen conflict between Austria- 
 Hungary on the one side and Serbia and Russia on 
 the other. Independent and democratic Serbia is the 
 ideal and inspiration of all the lesser Slavic peoples. 
 Russia, powerful and loyal, is their protector and 
 champion. Against the influence of these two, Aus- 
 tria has been forced to strain every nerve in the at- 
 tempt to suppress the Pan-Slavic spirit, so dangerous 
 to her dynastic security. 
 
 A brief historical reminder will serve to show how 
 the internal problems of Austria have always dictated 
 her foreign policy. She has consistently and tradi- 
 
GERMANY'S SHORT CUT 301 
 
 tionally been the opponent of the freedom of small 
 States and the unification of kindred peoples. In the 
 Greek wars of liberty and independence it was Aus- 
 trian support of Turkey which prolonged the agony 
 of that struggle. When the Belgians revolted against 
 Holland, Austria and Prussia were ready and eager 
 to crush their hopes. Italy's freedom and solidarity 
 were, won only through conflict with Austria. By 
 habit and by necessity Austria has long been the 
 enemy to national liberty. 
 
 The interests of Germany in South Eastern Eu- 
 rope are either coincident or parallel with those of 
 Austria. In no way do they conflict, so long as Ger- 
 many retains her present dominion over the Dual 
 Monarchy. Just as Austria sought to control the 
 Vienna-Salonica route, so Germany, always ample in 
 her ambitions, conceived the idea of expanding the 
 Austrian project into a great Pan-Germanic line from 
 Berlin to Bagdad. To the German imperial vision- 
 aries the Bagdad Railway not only meant the opening 
 of Eastern commerce to Germany by a shorter route 
 than the Suez Canal; it even promised the Germani- 
 zation, and finally permanent conquest, of Egypt, 
 Syria, Arabia, Persia and India. 
 
 Thus it was the Germans openly declared the 
 Turks to be their " natural allies " and, with Austria, 
 exerted every influence not only to conciliate the Sul- 
 tan, but to strengthen his grasp upon the last remnant 
 of Europe within his hands. In the concessions 
 granted to the German railway companies by the 
 Sultan in 1902, Germany achieved a virtual protecto- 
 rate over the Turkish Empire, and won an advan- 
 tage in the Near East over all the other Powers. 
 And now Turkey is the ally in war of Germany. 
 The ruin which long years of diplomacy and trickery 
 
302 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 made ready,, the menacing guns of the Goehen made 
 certain; and Turkey moves on to her doom. Inex- 
 tricably involved in the intrigues of greater Powers, 
 hounded on every side by guilty fears of attack and 
 spoliation, deceived, bribed and threatened, the blind 
 and impotent invalid of Europe stumbles forward, 
 scimitar in hand, to death and dissolution. 
 
 It must be remembered where Germany is con- 
 cerned, that friendliness with the Turks and the sup- 
 port of Turkey in Europe have always brought two 
 results: the alienation of Russia, and injury to the 
 Christian Balkan peoples. Germany daring the one, 
 did not hesitate at the other. Whatever advantages 
 she may have won by her Balkan and Ottoman poli- 
 cies, they have cost her dear. The armies hammer- 
 ing at the eastern gates of Prussia to-day are the re- 
 ward for her betrayal of Slavic friendship, of which 
 over so many, many years she had complete control. 
 Germans in the service of Russia had managed her 
 administration and inspired her foreign policy. Rus- 
 sian Tsars did the bidding of Prussian Kings. 
 Russia's misgovernment of Poland had its origin in 
 Prussian influence and policy. When Russia would 
 have been liberal, Prussia drove her to be tyrannical. 
 A discontented Russian Poland was a constant ad- 
 vantage to Prussia. 
 
 With the hope of commercial gain, which has led 
 Germany to support Austrian tactics in South Eastern 
 Europe, other motives have worked. Germany's 
 controlling hand over Austria-Hungary, and the 
 value of the latter as an ally, rest upon the preserva- 
 tion of the German-Magyar hegemony. The very 
 difficulties which she herself has encountered in the 
 pursuit of her repressive measures in Prussian Poland 
 have made Germany of one mind with Austria con- 
 
" THE BATTLE-CRY OF FREEDOM " 303 
 
 cerning any growth of Slavic power or freedom in the 
 south. 
 
 That aspiration which stirs the Southern Slavs to 
 self-expression, to ardour for independence and unity 
 on racial lines, is only, for the present, the predomi- 
 nant manifestation of the great hope which has raised 
 its common cry in many tongues of suffering men. It 
 is the same zeal which has kept the ancient tribes of 
 Albania unsubjugated and unsubmissive through 
 years of tyranny; which awoke the broken Bulgars to 
 successful effort; which calls the Roumanians, though 
 proudly claiming another race, to join the common 
 cause in the final struggle for this ideal. It is the 
 same cry from Greece to Galicia : freedom, independ- 
 ence, and self-respect. We of the West have been 
 slow to realize that other lesser and more primitive 
 peoples might be honestly desiring those things which 
 we so richly enjoy. 
 
 The year 1908 affords an excellent illustration of 
 the various currents and eddies in the affairs of these 
 turbulent States. At the time of the occupation of 
 Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1878 Serbia had relapsed 
 into a position of subservient vassalage to Austria; 
 and the Southern Slavs everywhere had failed to 
 achieve a strength commensurate with their spirit and 
 ambition. Twenty-five years, however, accom- 
 plished much. In 1903 came the revolution at Bel- 
 grade, with its attendant ghastliness of murder and 
 outrage, horrifying the civilized world. Those 
 hideous events, though they brought Serbia low in 
 public esteem, were at least not without material bene- 
 fit to her. By the sanguinary and shameful removal 
 o'f her pro-Austrian rulers she made final escape from 
 an insufferable tutelage. The impetus given to the 
 aspirations of the Southern Slavs generally by the 
 
304 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 event was tremendous. A free Slav State, supported 
 and protected by Russia, gave hope and encourage- 
 ment to all others of that race still enduring the tradi- 
 tional bondage. 
 
 This was a definite set-back to Austria. It 
 brought further difficulties to her never easy internal 
 affairs; it was a serious restriction to her foreign 
 pohcies. She waited the opportunity for retaliation. 
 It came in 1908. In that year she took advantage of 
 the Young Turkish revolution, formally to annex 
 Bosnia and Herzegovina. Serbia and Montenegro, 
 offended and seriously threatened by this move, made 
 vain protests. Russia, with her army disorganized 
 and her strength not yet recovered from the Japanese 
 War, was forced to the keen humiliation of giving 
 way before Austro-German aggression. 
 
 It was characteristic of Austria that she could not 
 be satisfied with this achievement. She must needs 
 add brutal insult to real injury. Feeling that popular 
 opinion and future history would not hold her above 
 suspicion, she decided to provide herself with a shield 
 and justification for these acts. To this end she per- 
 petrated one of the meanest and clumsiest plots to 
 which a great nation has ever lent cognizance or sup- 
 port. In the summer of 1908 Austria and Hungary 
 together connived In an orgy of treason-hunts in 
 Croatia. Agents provocateurs beat up the miserable 
 quarry, and arrests were wholesale and indiscrimi- 
 nate. The victims of this despotic drag-net were 
 held as hostages against any action by indignant 
 Serbia. To cover these inquisitorial methods the 
 infamous High Treason Trial was begun at Agram, 
 as is related in an earlier chapter. 
 
 These wretched tactics brought their own reward. 
 The whole Slavic brotherhood in the Balkans, en- 
 raged by the treachery of Austria, stifled all jealous- 
 
THE BALKAN LEAGUE 305 
 
 les between themselves, and the Balkan League was 
 formed for common defence. Russia, stirred pro- 
 foundly by the wrongs of her kinsmen and chagrined 
 at her own impotence, resolved never again through 
 weakness or irresolution to accept such an affront at 
 the hands of Germany and Austria. Straightway 
 Serbia began to organize and perfect her army. The 
 later Balkan wars should have warned Austria of 
 Serbia's determination, and of the success with which 
 she was preparing to enforce it, and has enforced it. 
 
 Austria and Germany confidently awaited the out- 
 come of the wars in 19 12, believing that separate 
 ambitions and mutual jealousies among the States 
 would soon destroy the League. This cynical hope 
 was almost justified. Bulgaria, insatiable for gain, 
 listened to insidious promptings from Berlin and 
 Vienna, and revolted from the League, claiming a 
 lion's share of the spoils. But that was as far as it 
 went. Serbia and Greece proved equal to the emer- 
 gency, and Bulgaria was well punished for her treach- 
 ery. To add to the Austro-German disappoint- 
 ment, Roumania, a spectator only of the first war, 
 asserted her integrity by taking up the cause of 
 her sister States. The only consolation which re- 
 mained for Austria was her success in circumvent- 
 ing Serbia's hopes for an Adriatic port by a hypo- 
 critical pretence of creating an autonomous State out 
 of Albania. 
 
 The defeat of Turkey, and the general strengthen- 
 ing, materially and spiritually, of the Southern Slavs, 
 which resulted from these wars was most disastrous 
 to the plans of the Germanic Powers. Lacking 
 leaders and without common policy, the Balkan States 
 had been doomed to flounder hopelessly in the meshes 
 of Austrian intrigue. Out of this wretched situation 
 Serbia led the way. Victorious in v/ar, nearly 
 
3o6 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 doubled In territory and population, united in spirit, 
 Independent, and democratic, she became the type and 
 focus of all hopes. Also behind Serbia stood 
 Russia, silently gathering strength, with what ef- 
 fectiveness we are only now beginning to realize. 
 
 The breach between Slav and German had become 
 complete and Irreconcilable. In the north, Russian 
 dignity stood opposed to Teuton ambition. In the 
 south, the unquenchable spirit of the race awaited the 
 final struggle against despotism and oppression. By 
 Its very nature the Slavic movement was bound to 
 succeed. All the influences of modern political 
 thought and enlightened forms of government en- 
 couraged its growth. The spread of education 
 amongst the subject races, with the realization of 
 their position, brought the will to escape. Austria 
 could only view with grave apprehension the gradual 
 loosening of her grasp upon these States and the in- 
 sidious weakening of her control over her own restive 
 population. Germany, conscious of this degenera- 
 tion of her ally, urged Austria to redouble her futile 
 reactionary efforts. It now became urgent to Prus- 
 sian hopes that the long awaited day might arrive 
 before Austria was too feeble and disrupted to be of 
 any aid In the struggle. A period of utter political 
 depravity fell upon South Eastern Europe. 
 
 To the credit of the Austrians it must be recorded 
 that conditions In their half of the Monarchy had im- 
 proved. Liberal reforms had been inaugurated, 
 and, by the conciliatory measures of leaders like the 
 Archduke Ferdinand, the material condition of the 
 subject peoples had been ameliorated. In many 
 places in Austria, Indeed, the administrative power 
 had been so far readjusted that the Germans were 
 rapidly being forced to take the defensive against 
 their more numerous Slav fellow-citizens. For the 
 
SERB VERSUS MAGYAR 307 
 
 Hungarian half of the Imperial edifice, however, 
 no censure can be too severe. Blindly ignoring the 
 lesson of their own past, the Magyars stopped at 
 nothing to insure and preserve their political 
 hegemony. Every method which intrigue could de- 
 vise was employed to deny the subject races their con- 
 stitutional and human rights. It is little wonder that 
 the independent Serbs felt it their mission to relieve 
 the unhappiness of their kinsmen under this oppres- 
 sion, and to this end did not hesitate to carry the war 
 into the enemy's country. It is not to be denied that 
 much of the unrest in the Slavonic territories of Aus- 
 tria-Hungary was due to propaganda originating 
 from Belgrade. The nature and success of these 
 operations brought retaliation in kind. The only 
 hope for the preservation of the Dual Monarchy lay 
 in the destruction of Serbia. On the one side was the 
 relentless German-Magyar despotism, wielding its 
 appropriate weapons to gain its necessary ends ; and 
 on the other, the desperate zeal of the Serbs, striving 
 for freedom and self-expression. All the wretched 
 tangle of petty motives cannot however concern us 
 now. The world is not troubling about details to- 
 day. Only fundamentals count. On the twenty- 
 eighth day of June a fanatical boy shot a man at Sera- 
 jevo. That boy knew little about alliances and 
 treaties and balances and secret diplomacy. Yet, for 
 all that, he and his silly pistol brought the worst fears 
 of all Europe to red fruition. To Germany came 
 the chance to spring her mine. 
 
 When the Archduke Ferdinand died the hopes of 
 Austria-Hungary died with him. Patriotism is a dif- 
 ficult quality to maintain in a land which is only a 
 dynastic fiction. Yet if any Austrian of this genera- 
 tion could pretend to that virtue it was the murdered 
 Archduke. He was the last support of his tottering 
 
3o8 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 Empire. Where he was not loved he was respected. 
 Standing as he did between the German reactionaries 
 and the Slavic insurgents, he alone had the power to 
 hold those irreconcilable elements together or apart 
 as necessity demanded; and for this very reason both 
 parties regarded his future advent to the throne with 
 profound distrust. His ultimate fate was the re- 
 ward for attempting a brave but impossible thing. 
 
 Strangely enough, the only authoritative commen- 
 tary which we now have upon the Serajevo crime 
 comes from the lips of the murdered man himself. 
 The Archduke had the privilege, seldom granted to 
 royal martyrs, of making what may almost be con- 
 sidered as a posthumous statement. It will be re- 
 membered that so little pains was taken to guard the 
 royal progress through the hostile streets of Serajevo 
 that the would-be assassins were able to make two 
 murderous attempts, the second one successful. 
 After the first of these attempts, it is reported on 
 good authority that the Archduke said: " The fel- 
 low will get the Golden Cross of Merit for this." 
 
 We must leave these secret and inscrutable things, 
 and the none too enigmatical words of the Archduke, 
 and consider the immediate effects of the crime. 
 They are more apparent and more important to the 
 world just now than all its obscure causes. 
 
 It is but poor respect to the followers of Met- 
 ternich and Bismarck to believe that circumstances, 
 so favourable to Germanic hopes, were of purely 
 fortuitous origin. The Day had dawned; and Ger- 
 many was no laggard to the call of her self-appointed 
 destiny. This time it was in no martial masquerade 
 of bright metal with which she supported Austria, but 
 in all the deadly earnest of dull grey mobilization. 
 
 How the other nations met this crisis is recorded 
 
SMALL STATES 309 
 
 In preceding chapters. Future ages will reflect with 
 awe upon a great spectacle of human solidarity. 
 Civil strife, social rebellion, political dissension, all 
 the unnecessary impedimenta of ordinary national life 
 were cast overboard, as Dreadnoughts are cleared 
 for action; and the peoples of the world stepped for- 
 ward to meet their fate and to decide the destiny of 
 mankind. The false peace of the long, waiting years 
 was ended. In Its place came the relief of good 
 honest combat ; to have Its way and be done. 
 
 And being done, what then? This world that we 
 know is doomed if it has not the wit to profit by Its 
 own past history. From the Balkan States came the 
 Immediate cause of this war, and from the Balkan 
 States may be learned the essential lesson for the 
 future. The long-continued effort to suppress the 
 vital aspirations of a subject race has brought catas- 
 trophe upon the whole world. One small, seething 
 kettle of barbarism has boiled over and flayed the 
 civilization of Europe. At the end of It all, then, 
 may it not be hoped that the great nations, wearied 
 and sickened with carnage and ruin, will see to it that 
 the cause of all this havoc is removed from the path 
 of future progress? 
 
 To Germany small States are an abomination. 
 The endless variations from type which are encour- 
 aged by the smaller States are repugnant to her 
 sense of ordered uniformity; the individualism natu- 
 rally arising from the public opinion of limited com- 
 munities is In conflict with her organized mechanism 
 of thought; she finds In their enforced vigilance an 
 age-long struggle for existence, seminaries of free- 
 dom abhorrent, even fatal to her discipHned autoc- 
 racy; she sees in them the eternal indictment of her 
 doctrine that size Is sanctity and strength the rule and 
 
3IO THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 measure of law. Liberty has ever had its birth in 
 the small community. That which was true of 
 Hellas and of Rome, is true to-day. The Balkan 
 States are to the Europe of this century what Hol- 
 land and Belgium, Switzerland, the Tyrol and 
 Navarre were to the Europe of the last three hundred 
 years; what the Greek Republics were to Europe be- 
 fore the Christian era. The sin-darkened cloud 
 which hangs over South Eastern Europe cannot 
 wholly conceal the great forces of liberty and prog- 
 ress which are struggling to find expression beneath 
 the violence of war. To an autocracy throned on 
 bayonets, to a constitution modelled on the barrack- 
 yard, such aspirations are hateful, are pregnant with 
 danger. So Germany has ever regarded small States 
 with a contempt that is half fear; so she has con- 
 quered and so ground them down. 
 
 If Germany and Austria could win in this war, it 
 would be because those ideals and methods of govern- 
 ment which they represent are more durable than we 
 believe them to be. When they admit their defeat, 
 come that soon or late, there will be exposed the in- 
 herent and disastrous fallacy in those ideals and 
 methods which they now so vainly try to impose upon 
 an aggrieved and revolted world. This globe, which 
 has survived Philip of Spain and Napoleon of Cor- 
 sica, will survive William of Potsdam, and will see to 
 it that, not only by the overwhelming voice of popu- 
 lar sentiment, but by every device within the ingenuity 
 of peace-loving and law-abiding nations, it will be 
 impossible for another such pretender to the Im- 
 perial throne of the universe ever to arise. 
 
 The future security of Europe, the future peace 
 of the world, will depend upon the removal of condi- 
 tions which made this war possible and inevitable. 
 The Teuton ideal of dominion by might must be cut 
 
FUTURE SECURITY 311 
 
 out like a cankerous growth from the body of Eu- 
 rope, that it may never infect the being of any other 
 race or nation. The belief that one race or State 
 may, by force and power of arms, impose its will upon 
 the spiritual lives of another race or State is 
 as dangerous as it is unsuccessful. It is degrading 
 alike to upholder and to victim. The whole history 
 of South Eastern Europe bears tragic witness to the 
 wrongs and perils of the system; and wherever else 
 the German grasp has tightened the baleful influence 
 of this ideal has been felt. It has brought neither 
 satisfaction nor profit to the Germans in their colo- 
 nies. In Alsace-Lorraine, in Schleswig-Holstein, 
 and in Prussian Poland it has produced only injustice 
 and writhing discontent; in Galicia and in the Slavonic 
 territories of Austria-Hungary it has been brutally 
 futile. 
 
 For this wasteful and impotently reactionary sys- 
 tem must be substituted another of proven worth and 
 benefit. Not in boasting or in vain pride may it be 
 claimed that the Anglo-Saxon ideal and method fur- 
 nishes the proper substitute with which to redress the 
 wrongs of the past. Common sense can scarcely 
 deny the efficiency of the British method. India, 
 Africa, and French Canada show the effects of a ra- 
 tional and effective treatment of the race question. 
 Surely there is in this alone deep reason to feel that 
 it is the duty of the nations fighting to-day for these 
 principles to see to it that they are applied by all great 
 Powers in their relations with lesser States. We of 
 the greater nations to-day have been taught humility 
 and respect by one of these small communities. 
 Belgium has shown us how inestimably precious the 
 small nation is; how it leavens the mass; and how 
 fundamentally necessary for the political and spirit- 
 ual welfare of the brotherhood of peoples it is that 
 
312 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 the weaker members shall be guaranteed full free- 
 dom. 
 
 '* The merits of the dispute between Austria and Serbia 
 were not the concern of His Majesty's Government." ^ 
 
 That position was properly assumed as long as 
 there was the faintest hope of preserving the peace 
 of Europe ; but with the peace of Europe shattered 
 beyond repair, and the fondest hopes of a new cen- 
 tury wrecked with fire and shrapnel, it now becomes 
 most vitally the concern of Great Britain to provide 
 by every resource in her power a security for future 
 generations against any such disastrous disputes, irre- 
 spective of their merits. The development of the 
 two principles upon which Anglo-Saxon civilization is 
 based will provide that security. There must be 
 everywhere a wider extension of liberty to those di- 
 versities in thought and action which spring from 
 race and tradition; and there must accompany it a 
 general strengthening of the mutual regard for pub- 
 lic law and equity among nations. It is for these 
 two principles that this war is being fought. And 
 with all its cost and sacrifice it will have been in vain, 
 if at the end these principles are not reaffirmed and 
 strengthened. To the Balkans in particular they 
 should be faithfully applied in such a territorial re- 
 distribution on racial and national lines as may 
 promise the growth of liberty, contentment, and 
 comity among long afflicted peoples, and so guard 
 the peace of Europe against further rupture from 
 that source. As upon the re-establishment of a free 
 and independent Belgium now depends the whole fu- 
 ture of international law and justice, so upon free 
 and contented States in the Balkans depends the fu- 
 
 2 Sir Edward Grey; British White Paper, No. 5. 
 
RACE AND LAW 313 
 
 ture hope of political liberty In Europe. Only the 
 most wilful blindness can ignore the lessons of Bel- 
 gium and the Balkans. By respect for race alone 
 will come sympathy and amity among the peoples of 
 the world ; and by the respect for law alone will come 
 concord and community of spirit. 
 
CHAPTER XVI 
 
 CIVILIZATION AND THIS WAR 
 
 This World War has been fruitful in surprises; in 
 the revelation of new factors of prodigious conse- 
 quence; in the abasement of many theories with at- 
 tendant disappointments. The most tragic of the 
 disappointments has been suffered by those who 
 thought that, murderous as the mechanism of war had 
 become, its methods and morals had so far advanced 
 as to rob it of its most poignant terrors. They be- 
 lieved that while modern science had, with devilish 
 skill, made the battlefield an inferno so terrible, that 
 it probably had over-reached itself by making battles 
 almost impossible, at least the wars of the present 
 would be less dreadful than those of the past. Both 
 these predictions were wrong. The present war has 
 shown us that human nature retains reserves of stout- 
 ness which triumph over the paralysing strokes of 
 science; that mind and flesh and blood can at long 
 last defeat the machine. In this, distressing as the 
 results of the conflict are, we may find confidence for 
 the future of the race. It is stronger of nerve and 
 soul than we had thought it. But the disproof of the 
 second and more hopeful prognosis leads to a less 
 cheering conclusion. If, during the last few months 
 we have seen human nature rising to as heroic heights 
 as it has ever known, we have also seen it sinking to 
 new depths of infamy. Things have been done in 
 Flanders and in France, in Poland and Galicia, which 
 might induce the belief that the moral progress of 
 mankind has been painfully small. 
 
 The disappointment is the more bitter because the 
 314 
 
CLASSIC AND MEDIAEVAL WAR 315 
 
 war shows that one of the most advanced European 
 races is still a slave to Force, and believes that power 
 gives warrant for rejecting humane principles. For 
 years men have striven to govern war by rules which 
 should palpably reduce the sufferings of combatants 
 and mitigate the position of the non-combatant civil 
 populations : the Geneva Convention and the Confer- 
 ences at Brussels and The Hague laboured bravely 
 towards that end. Loyally carried into effect, these 
 rules would have been of the highest value; but that 
 they were observances voluntarily imposed upon 
 themselves by civilized nations was infinitely more 
 valuable. 
 
 It may have been superstition which made the 
 tropaion of the Greeks immune even from those 
 whose defeat it commemorated; but whatever the 
 origin of such rules, we know that over two thousand 
 years ago regulations were made intended to diminish 
 the harshness of war. War in the old days was a 
 barbarous business at best, but it was not utterly anar- 
 chical; there were limits. Towns were razed to the 
 ground and the land sown with salt, but many cities 
 — cities destroyed in this war — survived centuries 
 of conflict. 
 
 In mediaeval war there was but little mercy; but 
 there was a certain fellowship among the orders of 
 knighthood which opened the gates gradually to ideas 
 of compassion, while it certainly developed the sense 
 of honourable obligation. It is, however, remark- 
 able that even in those days the German States lagged 
 behind in the march of humanity. The German 
 knights were robust fighters, but they were not sports- 
 men, they did not " play the game." Froissart, writ- 
 ing in the days of that star of chivalry, the Black 
 Prince, laments that it was impossible to teach the 
 German knights the principles of true knightliness. 
 
3i6 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 This moral sense even crystallized into rules, made 
 by King John, Richard I, Richard II and Henry V, 
 the latter proclaiming the inviolability of churches, 
 women, children and tillers of the soil. Primitive 
 and incomplete as were these rules, frequently as 
 they must have been disregarded, they marked a 
 definite stirring of conscience, they did much to miti- 
 gate the horrors of war. With the Renaissance 
 came a marked advance towards modern practices, 
 rules and regulations. As art developed, as men be- 
 gan to read in printed books, as trade and commerce 
 became honourable occupations, new ideas asserted 
 themselves of the duty of man to man. There was 
 still enough of cruelty and to spare, but men began 
 to protest against it. The excesses of Alva, the 
 treatment of the Indians by the successors of Cortes 
 and Pizarro, the massacre of St. Bartholomew were 
 no longer looked upon as normal incidents ; they be- 
 gan to revolt mankind. By tacit agreement the na- 
 tions relaxed to some extent the rigours of warfare. 
 The regulations of war were extended by the Tudor 
 monarchs, and, as in the American Civil War, so in 
 the struggle between Charles and the Parliament 
 *' Laws of War " were drawn up by the Duke of 
 Northumberland and Lord Essex which made it com- 
 paratively humane. It came to lose certain of its 
 most abhorrent features, though progress was far 
 from being steady and continuous. There were 
 dreadful exceptions, such as the campaign in the 
 Palatinate and the Thirty Years' War, when cities 
 were sacked and country sides ravaged ; but yet the 
 limits beyond which men should not go were being 
 more definitely recognized. 
 
 The ending of the Thirty Years' War, with its in- 
 credible tale of barbarity, ushered in a milder era. 
 Grotius was witness of its horrors, and was perhaps 
 
THE SOCIETY OF NATIONS 317 
 
 moved by them to try to formulate a system of Inter- 
 national law. His words, written in 1625, have 
 often been quoted, but may be quoted again in view 
 of recent events : 
 
 " I saw prevailing through the Christian world a license 
 in making war of which even barbarous nations would have 
 been ashamed; recourse being had to arms for slight reasons 
 and even for no reasons ; and when arms were once taken up, 
 all reverence for human and divine law was thrown away, 
 just as if rrien were henceforth authorized to commit all crimes 
 without restraint." 
 
 The immensity of the evil drove him and others, 
 such as Francisco Suarez, to seek its remedy in an 
 association of States, whose relations would be regu- 
 lated on well-defined principles. In his doctrine of 
 the Society of Nations, the basic principle of which is 
 that all its members, whatever their disparity of 
 strength, are on equal terms as regards their rights, 
 he broke away from the doctrine of Machiavelli that 
 Might is Right; that no one nation is answerable to 
 another; that each State is the sole judge of its neces- 
 sity, and is, therefore, free to frame its policy for its 
 own selfish advantage. It is curious to see the con- 
 troversy, settled two and a half centuries ago, now 
 reopened by the Kaiser, who in this, as in some other 
 respects, might appear to be the natural descendant 
 of the Machiavellian Prince. 
 
 If Grotius failed to establish his doctrine In its 
 present completeness, he and those who followed him 
 did at least awaken new ideas of international comity, 
 from which in time came new ideas of international 
 morality. International law can never attain the 
 rigidity of State law for the reason that there Is no 
 supreme authority to enforce It, no final sanction for 
 its decrees; but the underlying Idea of the Society 
 of Nations was itself an enormous advance, Man^ 
 
3i8 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 kind became more sensitive. Distinctions were 
 drawn between what was legitimate and what was 
 illegitimate in war. Pillage, the massacre of non- 
 combatants, needless destruction of property, inhu- 
 man neglect of wounded and treatment of prisoners 
 were reprobated by the unfolding instinct of human- 
 
 The change was slow and it was not progressive. 
 Hard things were done, there were lapses into abso- 
 lute brutality; but, speaking broadly, with the close 
 of the Thirty Years' War came the end of the old era 
 of warfare with its unrestrained ferocity. The cam- 
 paigns of William III and Marlborough show a wide 
 departure from the methods of Wallenstein and Tilly 
 sixty years before. The devastation of ruthless war- 
 riors, such as Frederick and Napoleon, was rather the 
 inevitable accompaniment of long wars than the 
 premeditated result of barbarity; yet Frederick en- 
 joined on his armies that they must not ill-treat, rav- 
 age or destroy civil populations ; that non-combatants 
 must be treated with consideration and humanity; 
 while Napoleon avoided the destruction of cities. 
 In a more enlightened day, the Kaiser, under the re- 
 proach of mankind, has rejected the precedents set by 
 his own great ancestor and exemplar. 
 
 While the practices of war slowly became more 
 lenient, a defined code of warfare still more slowly 
 developed. Great jurists ventilated doctrines which 
 were often in conflict, but all, in one way or another, 
 pushed the claims of morality a little further for- 
 ward. Von Bynkershoek, though he attempted to 
 soften the austerity of war but little, asserted a great 
 principle when he proclaimed the inviolability of neu- 
 tral territory. Vattel, again, showed how barbarous 
 war still was in his time by dwelling on the iniquity of 
 the use of poison ; but he also proved the progress of 
 
PARIS AND GENEVA 319 
 
 the moral sense when he emphasised the necessity of 
 justice as a cause of war, and declared war to be only 
 justifiable when waged in defence against wrong. 
 Zouche, though he maintained that an abnormal in- 
 crease of armaments by a neighbouring State would 
 constitute a casus belli, was equally positive on the 
 necessity of a war being " rightful " ; and declared 
 that there should only be resort to it after all other 
 means of settlement had failed. Leibnitz, Puffen- 
 dorf and Stowell laid down theoretical principles for 
 a code of War Law, while statesmen and generals in 
 varying degree gave them practical application ; but it 
 was not until 1856 that the idea of an international 
 code took definite shape. The Declaration of Paris 
 dealt with the rights of neutral ships in war; assert- 
 ing the great principles that the neutral flag covers 
 enemy's goods, except such as are contraband of war; 
 and that neutral goods, always excepting contraband 
 of war, are not liable to capture under the enemy flag. 
 The long period of comparative peace following 
 the Napoleonic wars gave free play to the better feel- 
 ings of mankind, which found notable expression in 
 the suppression of slavery. In 1864 the Geneva 
 Convention made rules for the treatment of sick and 
 wounded, under which persons and things connected 
 with their care were exempt from hostile operations. 
 In 1868 the Declaration of St. Petersburg established 
 certain general principles of warfare, the chief being 
 that the only legitimate object of military operations 
 was to weaken the force of the enemy, with the mini- 
 mum of suffering to the civil population. Six years 
 later the laws of war generally were discussed at great 
 length at Brussels. The rules there formulated were 
 not ratified by the Powers ; but the agreed principles 
 formed the groundwork of the subsequent negotia- 
 tions at The Hague in 1899 and 1907. 
 
320 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 Although the Brussels Conference had no legisla- 
 tive results, it was of importance as being the reflec- 
 tion of a higher code of morality, which indeed had 
 already found expression in actual warfare. The 
 campaign of Napoleon III in Italy, and the Franco- 
 German War of 1870, while carried on untrammelled 
 by formal regulations, marked on the whole an ad- 
 vance on many previous wars in the observance of hu- 
 mane rules ; although, in the latter conflict, the Prus- 
 sians were guilty of many hideous offences against 
 humanity and justice. The American Civil War 
 had been regulated by a code called " Instructions for 
 the Government of Armies of the United States in 
 the Field," which certainly influenced the conduct of 
 the Franco-Prussian conflict. It consisted of one 
 hundred and fifty-seven Articles, and was admirable 
 alike in its humanity and completeness, taking from 
 that terrible struggle many of war's worst features. 
 It seemed that of its own determined desire mankind 
 was moving to a higher moral plane. The attempted 
 legislation of 1874 and the actual legislation of 1899 
 and 1907 were then, as the law-making of primitive 
 States had been, at once the outcome of experience 
 and a growing moral responsibility. 
 
 The last two great wars of our time were striking 
 instances of this advance. Both the South African 
 War and the war between Russia and Japan were 
 waged on what may be called the modern principle. 
 There have indeed been military critics who held that 
 the South African methods would have caused less 
 suffering had they been less humane. One thing is 
 certain: never have the inhabitants of an invaded 
 country suffered less from plunder or outrage than 
 did the Boers. 
 
 Then came the Russo-Japanese War, waged be- 
 tween two nations whom the Germans have degcribed 
 
RUSSO-JAPANESE CHIVALRY 321 
 
 as barbarous. The fighting in that campaign was of 
 prodigious fury; the loss of life was very great; the 
 struggle assumed a most violent form; but new rules 
 of warfare were rigidly observed by both sides. Sir 
 Ian Hamilton bears evidence to this admirable be- 
 haviour. When he congratulated the Japanese of- 
 ficers on the conduct of their men, they replied, " We 
 cannot afford to have any people connected with this 
 army plundering or ill-treating the inhabitants of the 
 country we traverse." ^ So scrupulous were the 
 Japanese on this point that they actually sacrificed ef- 
 ficiency to secure it. In their war with China they 
 had found that the rickshaw coolies whom they em- 
 ployed, though excellent for transport purposes, had 
 lowered the national reputation by acts of violence 
 and pillage. Accordingly they decided to conscribe 
 200,000 men annually, not to be called up for mili- 
 tary service, but who should act as coolies in time of 
 war. It was calculated that these were only half as 
 efficient as professional coolies, but Japan made the 
 sacrifice in the interest of her own national reputa- 
 tion. 
 
 Of the Russians Sir Ian Hamilton writes : " The 
 Muscovites have not lifted so much as an egg even 
 during the demoralization of a defeat." ^ Contrast 
 the conduct of these two nations with what has hap- 
 pened during the months of 19 14 and 19 15, and we 
 shall be able to measure the ruin of hopes and ideals 
 for which this war is responsible. In those early 
 days of August, 19 14, when Europe was roused from 
 its dreams of peace to face the new cataclysm, men 
 consoled themselves as best they could by the re- 
 flection that the worst features of war were gone for 
 ever. An authority on international law, writing of 
 
 1 Sir Ian Hamilton, A Staff Officer's Scrap Book, Vol. I, p. 344. 
 ^Ibid.j p. 315. 
 
322 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 The Hague Conference, had used these soothing 
 words : " Enough has been said to show that war on 
 land is carried on now with far greater humanity than 
 it was a century ago." ^ 
 
 He had not said this without reason. The na- 
 tions involved in the struggle had subscribed to a 
 code the more likely to be observed because it was 
 not based on sentimentalism. Beyond proscribing 
 certain practices, such as murder, poison, and expand- 
 ing bullets, it left commanders free to use all means of 
 achieving the purpose of war; but it prohibited every 
 act of violence and destruction which was not de- 
 manded by the strict purpose of war. It was par- 
 ticular in protecting non-combatants, in asserting the 
 sanctity of private property; and it elevated into law 
 certain customs hitherto resting on an unwritten tradi- 
 tion of honour.^ There were humanitarians who 
 would have restricted still further the freedom of 
 commanders ; but most practical men saw in the very 
 latitude of the code the best security for its observ- 
 ance. To prescribe too many limitations might in- 
 vite evasions. 
 
 Those who expected that the great war of 19 14 
 would be waged on new principles of international 
 morahty and law could point, in support of their 
 faith, to a document published so far back as 1902 by 
 the German General Staff, under the title of Kriegs- 
 brauch. There is no namby-pamby sentiment in this 
 statement of the rights of war and its practices. 
 War must be made not only on the combatant forces 
 of the enemy State and its fortresses, but "equally 
 strong endeavours must be made to destroy it entire 
 intellectual and material resources." The claims of 
 
 3 T. J. Lawrence, International Problems and Hague Conference, 
 p. 104. 
 
 4 For chief provisions of The Hague Convention, see Appendix II, 
 
GERMAN LAWS OF WAR 323 
 
 humanity, the sparing of human lives and property, 
 were to be considered only in so far as the nature of 
 war permitted. This was sufficiently ruthless; but 
 even the authors of that merciless programme recog- 
 nized limitations of warlike methods, influenced not 
 merely by selfish considerations of reprisals, but by 
 *' the spirit of chivalry, of Christian morality and 
 the advance of culture." The modern customs of 
 war, as this document affirms, are not merely founded 
 upon old traditions and ancient military customs, but 
 are *' the precipitate of the currents of modern 
 thought." 
 
 This was all very consoling. Here were men of 
 blood and iron admitting the influence of chivalry, 
 culture and Christian morality; and asserting that the 
 customs of modern war reflect modern thought. 
 The Second Hague Conference carried the results of 
 modern thought a little further, and Germany sub- 
 scribed to its conclusions. We were, therefore, en- 
 titled to look for something of a moral lesson in the 
 conduct of this war. 
 
 So great, indeed, was the refinement of the con- 
 flict to be, that we find the German General Staff dep- 
 recating the employment of non-European troops, 
 whom they regarded as uncivilized and barbarian. 
 The objection is stated in a fine passage: 
 
 " With the modern tendency to humanize warfare and 
 to diminish the sufferings caused by war, the employment of 
 soldiers who lack the knowledge of civilized warfare, and who 
 consequently perpetrate cruelties and inhumanities prohibited 
 by the customs of war cannot be reconciled." 
 
 What then are these customs of war which a bar- 
 barous and uncivilized soldiery might disregard, but 
 which would be respected by even the most ruthless 
 commander of white men? 
 
324 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 Dealing with sieges and bombardments, it is laid 
 down by the German General Staff in the Kriegs- 
 hrauch that the prohibition against shelling open 
 towns and villages neither occupied nor defended 
 by the enemy is, " Almost superfluous, as the modern 
 history of war scarcely knows a case in which such 
 shelling has taken place." 
 
 Memories of Whitby and Scarborough will vividly 
 Intrude themselves here. 
 
 Ruses of War, — 
 
 Although in all times tricks and ruses have been 
 considered lawful, it is explained that — 
 
 " Certain ruses are not reconcilable with honest warfare, 
 namely, those which degenerate into perfidy, fraud, and the 
 breach of the given word." 
 
 In this category are placed the abuse of the white 
 flag or the Red Cross and pretended surrender with 
 the object of killing an unsuspecting opponent on his 
 approach. Such offences are denounced in terms 
 which deserve to be remembered — 
 
 *' These crimes violate the most ancient principles of war. 
 The natural sense of right possessed by all men, and the spirit 
 of chivalry which lives in the armies of all civilized States 
 have branded such proceedings as crimes against humanity and 
 against Right, and, guided by these sentiments, one refuses to 
 recognize any longer as equals, opponents who thus openly 
 violate the laws of honour and justice." 
 
 It is also laid down that, in the opinion of mih- 
 tary writers, supported by The Hague Conference, 
 the use of the enemy's uniform and flags, or of neu- 
 tral flags. In order to deceive, is placed in the same 
 category as the abuse of the white flag and the Red 
 Cross. Yet these pious aflirmations have been re- 
 pudiated in practice innumerable times during this 
 war by the German army. 
 
RIGHTS OF CIVILIANS 325 
 
 Customs of War relating to the enemy^s country. 
 Rights and duties of inhabitants. — 
 
 On this point the Kriegshrauch is so admirable 
 in its statement of international morality that it must 
 be quoted at length : 
 
 " While formerly the opinion prevailed that the destruc- 
 tion of private property was ' the principal means of warfare,' 
 and that the right to plunder private property was unlimited, 
 to-day the opinion prevails universally that the inhabitants 
 of a hostile country are no longer to be considered as enemies. 
 . . . It follows that the citizens of an unoccupied country 
 possess the right, that neither their life may be taken nor that 
 their honour and liberty be diminished, that every case of un- 
 lawful killing of the civil population, that every malicious or 
 careless wounding, that every insult, every disturbance of the 
 domestic peace, every attack upon the family, upon honour, 
 and upon morality, in short, every unlawful or criminal attack 
 and insult is exactly as punishable as if it had been perpe- 
 trated against the inhabitants of one's own country." 
 
 Here we pause to think of Vise, Louvain, Ter- 
 monde, and Malines; of Aerschot, Dinant and 
 Senlis ! 
 
 In regard to private property the Kriegshrauch is 
 quite definite. As war is made between States and 
 not between private individuals, it follows that arbi- 
 trary devastation of the country and wilful destruc- 
 tion of private property is opposed to international 
 law. Soldiers guilty of unnecessary devastation, de- 
 struction and arson " will be punished as criminals 
 according to law." Then follows this declaration in 
 all the emphasis of italics. 
 
 ''No damage, not even the smallest, must be done unless 
 it is done for military reasons. On the other hand, the great- 
 est damage may be inflicted if it is demanded by the conduct 
 of war.'* 
 
 How many towns and^ villages in France and Bel- 
 
326 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 glum have been laid waste for no reason at all save 
 to feed a spirit of revenge and hatred, to impose 
 the policy of terrorism, to paralyse the material and 
 intellectual resources of the people ! 
 
 Plunder and loot, — 
 
 Observe the good doctrine of the German Gen- 
 eral Staff on this ancient offence of war: 
 
 " Plunder is the worst form of taking other people's prop- 
 erty. It consists in robbing the citizens of the country by 
 making use of the terror of war, in abusing the superior force 
 possessed by the military." 
 
 This Is a most Important statement. The taking 
 of all private property is criminal, but the addition 
 of terror makes it atrocious. Such a denunciation 
 of terrorism, or frightfulness, must not be forgotten 
 as we proceed to consider what has happened In Bel- 
 gium and Northern France. 
 
 Forced Requisitions and Contributions. — 
 
 " As modern International Law no longer recognizes the 
 right to destroy and plunder, and as the maxim that wars are 
 made upon States, and not upon private Individuals is no 
 longer In doubt, It follows logically that forced contributions 
 in money are not permissible according to present-day vlew^s, 
 because such contributions represent only an ordinary enrich- 
 ment of the victor." 
 
 Here we have an exposition of the principles on 
 which nations should fight, elevating warfare to a 
 comparatively high moral plane. It is not perfect; 
 the doctrine of the destruction of a nation's entire 
 resources, not only material but Intellectual, shocks 
 civilized Ideals; but the denunciation of dishonest 
 ruses; the emphatic assertion of the Inviolability of 
 the persons and property of private Individuals; the 
 condemnation of the principles of ransom; the lofty 
 
A HIGH MORAL PLANE 327 
 
 appeals to chivalry, Christianity and honour — these 
 indicate a very notable advance in civilization. 
 
 Truly, thought those who read, we were coming 
 to a golden military age, when war would be con- 
 ducted in a kind of vacuum, injuring only those en- 
 gaged in it and passing non-combatants by. These 
 hopeful expectations were confounded when Ger- 
 many violated the neutrality of Luxemburg and Bel- 
 gium; for that neutrality was not only guaranteed by 
 solemn treaty upheld over three-quarters of a cen- 
 tury, but was sanctified by The Hague Conference 
 and by the German General Staff itself. Thoughtful 
 men, when they saw these articles of international law 
 disregarded, may have had some qualms of doubt 
 whether the others would be observed; if so they 
 were lulled into tranquillity by the conviction that 
 though Germany might disregard a political obliga- 
 tion, she would certainly not disregard obligations 
 of chivalry, honour, and Christian morality. 
 
 They saw in the Kriegshrauch commendable op- 
 position of new principles of morality to old bar- 
 barous practices; and they fondly imagined that hu- 
 manity had really weighted the balance in its own 
 favour. They were mistaken. They had read only 
 the lofty sentiments and well-posed regulations; they 
 had ignored the exceptions and the qualifications. 
 In that admirable work, The German War-Book,^ 
 Professor Morgan has shown the distinction made 
 by the German War Lords between Kriegsmanier, or 
 the rules of war, and Kriegsraison, or the argument 
 of necessity of war; and how the former is invaria- 
 bly subordinated to the latter. " It is," he says, 
 " unfortunate that the War-Book, when It inculcates 
 
 5 Those who desire to study the German conception of warfare in 
 detail will find in this work a very complete statement of the sub- 
 ject. 
 
328 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 * frightfulness,' is never obscure, and when it ad- 
 vises forbearance it is always ambiguous." 
 
 In effect, the German rules of war are not really 
 framed in mitigation of old bad usages; they are 
 everywhere whittled down in deference to them. 
 The Ten Commandments are hung on the wall, and 
 then are blue-pencilled till " Thou shalt not " is ob- 
 scured by " Thou mayst.'* In brief, the German 
 War-Book, if the exceptions be taken with the rules, 
 is an actual repudiation of the modern practice of 
 war as declared by The Hague Convention. The 
 latter seeks by rules to put restraints on the doctrine 
 of destruction; in the JVar-Book this doctrine modi- 
 fies, distorts, governs, or obscures the rules. So 
 flagrant, indeed, is the antagonism in spirit between 
 the two, that it is certain the authors of the Kriegs- 
 branch had no other object than to throw dust in the 
 eyes of the world, to make mock of humanity. The 
 German General Staff had its tongue in its cheek 
 when this War^Book was compiled. 
 
 What we have seen in actual practice since Au- 
 gust, 1 9 14, is no less than the betrayal of civilization 
 by the very nation which, like one who went out 
 and hanged himself, was most correct in its pro- 
 fessions of loyalty to culture and morality. It has 
 been a terrible blow to the whole world to find how 
 little, after all, has been the ethical progress of Ger- 
 many, how thin its veneer of refinement and human- 
 ity. 
 
 However, now that the first shock has passed, re- 
 flection will serve to show that humanity need not be 
 hopeless, face to face with this revolting history. 
 The very horror which the deeds done in Flanders, 
 in France and in Poland, have aroused everywhere, 
 prove that the moral progress of the world of men 
 as a whole is a real thing; that it is only one tribe of 
 
DISILLUSIONMENT 329 
 
 the vast human family which has failed and fallen 
 short. The conduct of the war by Germany, her 
 repudiation of the principles which she herself pro- 
 fessed, has lowered the moral level as a whole; but 
 it has at least shown us exactly where the foundations 
 are rotten. 
 
 There had been warnings by those who knew, who 
 declared from inside knowledge that the German 
 people, like the parvenus of romance, had lost their 
 heads. When a German officer butchered a peace- 
 ful unarmed citizen, or a sergeant tortured and mal- 
 treated his men, or someone who knew published 
 revelations of life in a garrison town; or when an 
 enterprising journalist unearthed the loathsome do- 
 ings of a camarilla, people shook their heads, but 
 dismissed the matter, with the remark that militarism 
 was being pushed too far; that there was, unhappily, 
 still a certain crudeness, coarseness and cruelty in the 
 German character. With thought of the Heinrichs 
 and the Gretchens of such German literature as they 
 knew, they were glad to believe still that the nation 
 was sound at heart. Even a most distinguished 
 Englishman, a deep student of Germany, found there 
 his " intellectual home." If, with his reading, he 
 failed to appreciate the real trend of German char- 
 acter and feeling, it is not surprising that less fa- 
 voured and less instructed people were ignorant of 
 what was forward. 
 
 Germany alone has not marched with the rest of 
 humanity, save in material development, in the prog- 
 ress of commerce and industry, in the getting of 
 wealth. While most of the world has been seeking 
 higher inspiration, becoming slowly subject to prin- 
 ciples which work towards the adjustment of all dis- 
 organization of world-life by equity and right-think- 
 ing, by mutual moral accommodation, she has wor- 
 
330 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 shipped false gods. " In the struggle between na- 
 tionalities," cries Prince Biilow, ^' one nation is the 
 hammer and the other the anvil." 
 
 Germans call the God they worship their " old 
 God," but in vain the studious mind seeks this Ger- 
 man Deity in the story of civilization. True it is, 
 however, that in the operas of Wagner he may be 
 found. There he is in the subterranean realms 
 where Wotan reigned. A German poet has sung of 
 him in wild ecstasy : 
 
 " The God who speaks out of our cannons, the God who 
 breaks up your fortresses, who rushes through the seas on our 
 ships, who whizzes across the heavens with our flying-men, 
 the God of our swords before which you tremble, is the same 
 Almighty Spirit that has moved over Germany for thousands 
 of years. He was Wotan, the cloud-wanderer of our fathers ; 
 it was he who suffered with us, but who remained alive in 
 Paul Gerhardt and John Sebastian Bach, the God who lay 
 beside Frederick in the field, and finally gave us a new day." ® 
 
 Too long have this German race misinterpreted 
 the Deity for their purposes of conquest; too long 
 have they drawn inspiration from Askalon, forget- 
 ting or scorning Olivet. Tacitus, no unfriendly critic, 
 says of the Germans of his day, '^ To solicit by 
 labour what might be seized by arms was esteemed 
 unworthy of the German spirit." 
 
 The German race has always been pre-eminent for 
 barbarity in war. Germany's conquests have largely 
 been barren because of the brutality of her methods. 
 Her idea of making Italy a province of the Empire 
 was to devastate it; the Thirty Years' War was per- 
 haps the most horrible in its excesses of all that have 
 stained the face of Europe since the time of Attila."^ 
 
 ^ Kblnische Zeitung, December, 1914. 
 
 '^ John Ruskin bore indignant testimony to German violence. 
 Thus, in Fors Clamgera, he says : " Accordingly, when the Germans 
 
PRUSSIA'S ILL RECORD 331 
 
 We need only compare It with the contemporary 
 great Civil War in England to realize what were the 
 excesses of the old Teutons. During the campaigns 
 in France, in 18 14 and 18 15, the atrocities of the 
 Prussian troops shocked their allies, who were not 
 squeamish or over-sensitive. At Chateau Thierry, 
 in 1 8 14, the Prussians *' committed every sort of 
 cruelty." ^ When General Belliaud, of the French 
 Army, entered the town, he found the women killing 
 the wounded Prussians, and was told that it was an 
 act of vengeance for wholesale plunder, outrage on 
 women of all ages, and cold-blooded murder. Cap- 
 tain Gronow, describing what happened in the ad- 
 vance to Paris after Waterloo, says : " Whenever 
 we arrived at towns or villages through which the 
 Prussians had passed we found that every article 
 of furniture in the houses had been destroyed in the 
 most wanton fashion"; and he describes how, on 
 the slightest remonstrance, the poor people were 
 '* beaten in a most shameful manner and sometimes 
 shot." This officer found a farmer at Pont St. 
 Malxan, whose three daughters had been violated, 
 whose cattle and horses had been stolen, and who had 
 himself been tied to a chair and slashed with swords 
 because he had no money. One greater than Gro- 
 now bore similar witness. Robert Southey thus de- 
 scribes a visit to Belgium In the autumn of 1815 : 
 
 " You will be rejoiced to hear that the English are well 
 spoken of for their deportment in peace and war. It is far 
 
 get command of Lombardy, they bombard Venice, steal her pictures 
 (which they can't understand a single touch of), and entirely ruin 
 the country, morally and physically, leaving behind them misery, 
 vice, and intense hatred of themselves, wherever their accursed 
 feet have trodden. They do precisely the same thing by France — 
 crush her, rob her, leave her in misery of rage and shame, and re- 
 turn home, smacking their lips, and singing Te Deums." 
 8 Captain Gronow's Reminiscences. 
 
332 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 otherwise with the Prussians. Concerning them there is but 
 one opinion ; of their brutality and Intolerable Insolence I have 
 had but too many proofs." ^ 
 
 In Paris the ruffianism of the Prussians revoltea 
 the Allies. Blucher was with difficulty restrained 
 by the Duke of Wellington from plundering the 
 Bank of France. General Muffling put an impossi- 
 ble contribution on the city and arrested the Prefect 
 because it could not be paid.^^ British objection to 
 such treatment of a conquered country caused dif- 
 ferences which were not easily overcome. 
 
 The Duke of Wellington had no illusion as to the 
 character of his Allies. Though he earned the title 
 of the " Iron Duke," he was always scrupulous to 
 respect the rights of non-combatants, as the bad men 
 of his armies learned to their cost; and the disregard 
 of these rights by the Germans revolted him. Writ- 
 ing to his mother, he thus described the operations 
 of the German legion: 
 
 " I can assure you that from the General of the Germans 
 down to the smallest drummer-boy In their legion the earth 
 never groaned with such a lot of murdering infamous villains. 
 They murdered, robbed, and Ill-treated the peasantry wher- 
 ever they went." 
 
 The Iron Duke did not speak more strongly than 
 he felt. He was unrelentingly stern with his own 
 armies, punishing ill-treatment of non-combatants 
 with the utmost severity. Sir Herbert Maxwell, in 
 his life of the great commander, says : 
 
 " Plundering of peaceful Inhabitants was the one crime he 
 detested and was determined to put down." 
 
 In the Danish War of 1864 the German army de- 
 
 ^ Robert Southey, Letter to John May, October 6th, 1815. 
 10 Captain Gronow, Reminiscences. 
 
DENMARK, AUSTRIA, FRANCE 333 
 
 stroyed public works, monuments and property of all 
 kinds without scruple, and without any excuse of 
 military advantage. Thus, they bombarded Sonde- 
 burg, a town situated on an island behind the Dan- 
 ish forces, which was quite outside the area of mili- 
 tary operations, the only result of the bombardment 
 being the removal of the Danish hospitals. When 
 their excesses in the Franco-German War of 1870 
 formed the subject of general discussion, the Aus- 
 trian papers declared that, short as had been the 
 campaign of 1866, the German armies had left be- 
 hind them in Austria the same unsavoury reputation 
 as in Denmark. This is peculiarly instructive, for 
 Austria had borne part in both campaigns, in one as 
 the ally, in the other as the opponent, of Prussia. 
 
 In the Franco-Prussian War, there was, as we 
 have it now, the theory of collective punishment, the 
 destruction of public buildings, and the same callous 
 disregard of the wounded, though on a less extensive 
 scale. The shelling of the inhabited quarters of 
 Strassburg before even a shot was fired against the 
 ramparts; the destruction of the great library that 
 lay beside the historic Cathedral; and the deliberate 
 bombardment of the place, to prevent the work of 
 those who tried to save it, was sternly condemned 
 in England and America as were the indiscriminate 
 murders in revenge for the attacks of the francs- 
 tireurs and General von Goeben's atrocious Procla- 
 mation at Rouen, where those who acted as guides 
 to the French troops were threatened with death.^^ 
 
 The conduct of the German armies in 1870 is par- 
 ticularly instructive in examining the excuse ad- 
 vanced by the Germans for the destruction of towns 
 and slaughter of civilians in Belgium. Then, as now, 
 
 11 Laurence Ollphant, the correspondent of the London Times in 
 this war, said that " The Germans pillaged terribly." 
 
334 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 the argument was that civihans had become irregu- 
 lar combatants. We need not here argue the ques- 
 tion whether the francs-tireurs were not as much 
 regular soldiers as the Landstrum of Germany. 
 High authorities contend that they were; but that 
 point may pass in view of the fact that towns were 
 destroyed and civilians butchered in reprisal for the 
 acts of regular troops. At Nemours, where 300 
 gardes-mobiles captured 47 Uhlans, the sentence on 
 the town was that it should be pillaged for two hours 
 and burned to the ground. When a bridge over 
 the Meuse was destroyed by a party of French cav- 
 alry, which came from a distance, the unoffending 
 village of Fontenoi near by was ravaged and burnt by 
 the Germans. On December 6th, 1870, a party of 
 Germans came to Nogent-le-Roi to make requisi- 
 tions, and was driven off by gardes-mobiles. They 
 came again, with 7,000 men, after the French forces 
 had retired, and gallantly bombarded the undefended 
 town, setting it on fire and slaying the townsfolk as 
 they escaped from their burning homes. 
 
 Later still, in the Chinese War of 1900, the Ger- 
 man troops took to heart the injunctions of their 
 Emperor against mercy. General James H. Wil- 
 son, who commanded the American contingent, has 
 testified that " The atrocities perpetrated by the Ger- 
 mans, especially as regards women, were something 
 too atrocious for record; and, moreover, were un- 
 blushingly acknowledged as a regular feature of 
 war." 
 
 Cruelty is one of the methods of instruction in the 
 German army. Soldiers are thrashed by their ser- 
 geants, horses are flogged till they shriek with pain. 
 Persuasion, kindness, humanity, play little part in 
 educational methods; force is the real remedy, the 
 chief agent. The design is to harden the army; 
 
EDUCATION OF THE SUPERMAN 335 
 
 and it is notably achieved. The soldier becomes a 
 superman, taught to roll his eye in scorn and defiance, 
 to look for causes of offence and promptly to avenge 
 them. Brutality becomes part of his regular equip- 
 ment. He carries it in his haversack, as convenient 
 for his sustenance as his emergency ration. Thus, 
 we find officers performing daring feats of swords- 
 manship upon unarmed merchants and even cripples, 
 and the heir to the throne complimenting the victors 
 of Zabern on their loyalty to the honour of the 
 army. 
 
 William Harbutt Dawson, a profound student of 
 German hfe and character, in his latest volume, ^^ 
 describes with graphic force the system of cruelty 
 and persecution by non-commissioned officers in the 
 German army, citing speeches made in debates in 
 the Reichstag on Army Estimates, wherein charges 
 are made " with monotonous regularity." He 
 quotes striking and revolting instances such as that of 
 a sergeant named Thamm, who was charged with 
 600 cases of misconduct and maltreatment; of a cap- 
 tain, under whom a non-commissioned officer had 
 committed 1,500 offences of illtreatment of soldiers, 
 being given promotion over the heads of senior offi- 
 cers ; and he recalls the statement made in the Reich- 
 stag that within a period of five years, " One hun- 
 dred thousand court-martialled soldiers had been sen- 
 tenced to an aggregate period of 2,300 years of 
 penal servitude and 16,000 years of imprisonment.'* 
 What the condition of an army must be which has 
 been obHged to court-martial 100,000 soldiers in 
 five years ; what the spirit of revolt against the cruelty 
 of the system must have been which resulted in 100,- 
 000 soldiers receiving 18,300 years of imprisonment 
 and penal servitude may be imagined. How slavish 
 
 12 What is Wrong ivith Germany? 
 
336 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 must the spirit of a people be which could permit such 
 a system to continue ! 
 
 " Kicks, cuffings, pulling of ears till the blood came, and 
 lashings with driving whips were among the ordinary means 
 employed by these brutes to enforce discipline, and * waken 
 up ' backward men." 
 
 This is the description of the ordinary course of 
 discipline. How long would a free people like those 
 of England and America endure this degradation of 
 humanity, this savage application of physical torture 
 to produce an efficient machine for the imposition of 
 Kultur and the saving grace of the German ideal? 
 These things are done in the twentieth century by 
 the military section of a people who have that peo- 
 ple in such control that their civilization is resolved 
 back again into barbarism at the crack of the Junker's 
 whip of discipline. A nation that can sing a Song 
 of Hate like a troop of Sioux Indians on the war- 
 path, as though, when this war is over, we shall not 
 have commerce again with each other, or resume the 
 ordinary exchanges and civilities of existence, shows 
 a primeval simplicity and an aboriginal emotion 
 which is as discomfiting to the inteUigence as it is 
 futile in effect: 
 
 ..." Come hear the word, repeat the word, 
 Throughout the Fatherland make it heard, 
 We will never forego our hate. 
 We have all but a single hate. 
 We love as one, we hate as one, 
 We have one foe, and one alone — 
 England! '* 
 
 The German Dr. Fuchs, In a book on the subject 
 of preparedness for war, says: 
 
 " Therefore the German claim of the day must be: The 
 family to the front. The State has to follow at first in the 
 
THE CREED OF HATE 337 
 
 school, then in foreign politics. Education to hate. Educa- 
 tion to the estimation of hatred. Organization of hatred. 
 Education to the desire of hatred. Let us abolish unripe and 
 false shame before brutality and fanaticism. We must not 
 hesitate to announce: To us is given faith, hope and hatred, 
 but hatred is the greatest among them." 
 
 It IS all childish, ridiculous and disconcerting. It 
 Is a. nation In the tantrums, a giant crashing about 
 and blaspheming the mockers whom he cannot reach 
 or destroy. It Is the abdication of sane manhood 
 and of all that civilization has given of self-control. 
 As Goethe said to Eckermann: "Natural hatred 
 Is a pecuhar thing. You will find It most Intense 
 among the lowest In the scale of civilization." Who 
 cares a fig or a farthing for these ravings? They 
 do not frighten us; they but give assurance that hate 
 will drive these tigers rampant to do foolish things, 
 by which they will play Into our hands, as they have 
 done In this war again and again. They kill the 
 wounded and fire upon Red Cross ambulances and 
 hospitals; they loot and murder and rape and rob, 
 and their hate has thus much hideous fruition; but 
 it does not give added strength, or skill or wisdom 
 to their fighting. It sends General von HIndenburg 
 headlong at the crafty Russians In a fury that over- 
 whelms the makers of fury; It throws scores of thou- 
 sands on Impregnable places to die; It burns towns 
 and kills women and children and old men In baffled 
 rage. It drives Admiral von TIrpItz to proclaim 
 paper-blockades and the Intention of remorselessly 
 destroying Great Britain's mercantile marine with- 
 out regard for the lives of the non-combatants on the 
 ships destroyed. It sends a whole nation plunging 
 blindly down slopes whose depths are hidden. In the 
 spirit of Cromwell's words to the Portuguese Am- 
 bassador: " No one goes so far as he who knows 
 
338 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 not where he Is going." What can you do with a 
 people whose salutation to each other is — 
 
 "God punish England, brother! — 
 Yea, punish her, O Lord ! " 
 
 They say it, they sing it, and they hiss it. They 
 beat a poor wounded prisoner, they spit upon him, 
 they strike him in the face with bayonets, they kick 
 him when he asks for water, they surround him at a 
 railway-station to the summons of, " Come and see 
 the English swine ! " ^^ They apparently forget 
 that there are German prisoners in England, and 
 that it is possible to swarm upon wounded German 
 prisoners at English railway-stations, and beat them 
 and kick them and say, '' Come and see the German 
 hogs." Truth is, far too many of the German peo- 
 ple are still in many essentials where they were when 
 they hunted the wild boar in the forests of Zollern, 
 or tracked down their wild brethren, the Slavs, in 
 the barren plains of East Prussia, " with a single 
 hate " and '* one foe alone " ages and ages ago. 
 
 An able writer, ^^ who knows Germany and its peo- 
 ple, points out how the Kaiser contributes to the doc- 
 trine of force by his constant praise of the duelling 
 methods of the German students. It is all a piece 
 of the great idea — contempt for weakness, disre- 
 gard of the rights of others, the principle of hacking 
 one's way through. The German cannot under- 
 stand that other men have any rights, any point of 
 view, any virtue, unless they jump with his advan- 
 tage. He cannot greatly love his friends, even those 
 like the Danes, whom he wronged, and from whom 
 
 1^ Corporal C. Welton of the ist Cheshire Regiment, in an inter- 
 view in the London Press on his return from Germany after im- 
 prisonment there. 
 
 14 Mr. Sidney Whitman, Nineteenth Century, December, 1914. 
 
THE DANISH WAR 339 
 
 he took by force territory and population; or the 
 Austrians, whom he lures to be his servants and 
 treats like members of a " contemptible little army." 
 All others he hates, or hides his hate seeking to se- 
 duce. People have been amazed at the coarse vitu- 
 peration filling the German papers since the present 
 war began. It should not cause surprise; it is the 
 Teutonic custom. Mr. Gallenga, a one-time lover of 
 Germany, in his account of the Danish War of 1864, 
 uses language which might be reprinted to describe 
 the events of to-day : 
 
 " It Is strange to see how bitter, how violent these Germans 
 can be when they have managed to lash themselves into a 
 passion. It is not the Government of Denmark only that is 
 the theme of their withering abuse. It is the Danish people 
 that they paint with the most odious colours as the falsest, the 
 most treacherous, the most hypocritical people In the world. 
 They do not scruple to charge their adversaries with the 
 blackest perfidy and duplicity." ^^ 
 
 There are, doubtless, very many kindly Germans 
 who deplore these things, but they are silent or disre- 
 garded. They are over-ruled by those who hold 
 that such a spirit is incompatible with national great- 
 ness. They see that other nations have become 
 great by milder methods, but their arguments are ad- 
 dressed to rulers devoid of political capacity and 
 
 15 The hostility of the Germans to the English is by no means of 
 recent growth. In a letter from France, written in 1870, Laurence 
 Oliphant describes their animosity thus: "The official or Junker 
 class detests England with a mortal hatred, because they In- 
 stinctively feel that the Institutions of England strike at the root of 
 their class prejudices and bureaucratic system. The feeling against 
 England among the Germans is Increasing every day, and it is 
 amusing to hear them discuss plans for the invasion of England. 
 They have worked the whole thing out; Blumenthal told me he 
 had considered it from every point of view, and regarded it as 
 quite feasible." 
 
340 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 controlled by atavistic tendencies. " We must con- 
 quer or die, we must fight for what we want," they 
 say. Against that creed remonstrance beats in vain. 
 The milder, manlier school of thought has lost, not 
 only in influence but in numbers. Prince Bulow, in 
 his notable book, describing quite frankly the con- 
 flict between the old German intellectual life and the 
 Prussian State, says: 
 
 " My late friend, Adolph Wilbrandt, in a pleasing play, 
 has a scene between an official belonging to the North Ger- 
 man nobility and the daughter of a savant of the middle 
 classes; At first they repel each other and quarrel. ' I rep- 
 resent the Germany of Schiller, Goethe and Lessing,' says 
 the woman, and the man replies : ' And I represent the Ger- 
 many of Bismarck, Bliicher and Moltke ' . . . Our future 
 depends on whether, and to what extent, we succeed in amal- 
 gamating German intellect with the Prussian monarchy." 
 
 Militarism has eaten deeply and ravenously into 
 the national conscience of Germany; the nation is 
 prone before an army of little despots living inside 
 a ring-fence which no echo of the old German 
 thought and sentiment penetrates. The men of this 
 army must, however, have credit for what they are 
 — splendid fighting animals, from whom all but the 
 primal fighting instinct has been sedulously crushed 
 out. 
 
 Of such " factors of control " was Germany com- 
 posed in the summer of 19 14. Its people — some 
 of them unseeing and unwitting — made worship in 
 secret at a new shrine, while outwardly maintaining 
 the observances of the orthodox faith of interna- 
 tional honour. On our part we were Ignorant, 
 blinded by a great duplicity, and dumbfounded at 
 last by the real truth. We have realized in a day of 
 unexpected sacrifice what the great German historian 
 
INTERNATIONAL ORTHODOXY 341 
 
 meant when he wrote of " The childish belief, that 
 civilization is able to extirpate brutality from hmnan 
 nature." ^^ 
 
 1^ Momrasen, History of Rome, Vol. I, p. 404. 
 
CHAPTER XVII 
 
 " FRIGHTFULNESS " 
 
 Mankind has been sickened by the excesses com- 
 mitted by the German armies wherever they have 
 gone, and this, less by the revolting deeds themselves, 
 than by the fact that they have been the outcome of 
 deliberate war-policy. 
 
 Individual atrocities are committed in every war, 
 since in all armies savage natures find a natural hab- 
 itat. Mihtary service attracts them because of the 
 opportunity offered of loot, lust, and killing. No 
 army can guard against such devilry, but great sol- 
 diers like Wellington have sternly punished the au- 
 thor of the individual atrocity. This incidental — 
 and because human nature is what it is — inevitable, 
 accident of warfare is wholly distinct from the policy 
 of official organized atrocity such as Germany has 
 pursued during the present war. The Kaiser and 
 his government have declared officially, and Count 
 Reventlow, Professor Lasson, and many others un- 
 officially, that the policy of Germany was to produce 
 in the minds of the enemy people an effect of terror 
 and demoralization; that there should be destruction, 
 not only of the material but of the intellectual hfe of 
 the nation, by which is undoubtedly meant its morale, 
 will-power, and spiritual capacity for resistance. 
 That has been the official war-policy carefully de- 
 veloped and systematically, ruthlessly, and viciously 
 applied. 
 
 The doctrine of frightfulness is not a new one, but 
 its adoption by a civilized nation as a settled policy 
 is wholly new. In old days it was the normal char- 
 
 342 
 
SINNING AGAINST THE LIGHT 343 
 
 acteristlc of war, because war had no limitations. 
 No nice distinctions were made between the military 
 and civil populations, between public and private 
 property; no bounds were set to the privileges of 
 the victor over the vanquished. Humanity still exe- 
 crates the names of Attila and Tamerlane, and we, 
 in modern days, stand aghast at the deeds of King 
 Prempeh, of Chaka the Zulu, and of Lobengula; but 
 these murderers, and others like them, did not in- 
 vent such methods of warfare ; they did not prescribe 
 them as an essential part of their military scheme; 
 they took things as they were, following the cus- 
 toms and moral standards of days, and in regions, 
 which knew no Kiiltur, Because those standards 
 were low we call them barbarians and savages. 
 
 Germany, however, has sinned against the light; 
 she has been false to her own solemn engagements ; 
 she has given the lie to her own professions; she has 
 betrayed the moral sense of her age ; she has undone 
 the work of the centuries. Of all the many counts in 
 the indictment against her, this last is the most griev- 
 ous, that she has ignored the spirit of civilized war- 
 fare. Rules and customs, Geneva Conventions and 
 Hague Conferences avail nothing unless the spirit 
 of the combatants conforms to them. Valueless in 
 themselves, since no power exists to enforce them, 
 they depend for their validity on the consciences of 
 the signatories. It may, indeed, almost be said that, 
 unless all the signatories are equally loyal to them, 
 they may be worse than useless, by encouraging those 
 who disregard them to trust to the higher feelings of 
 others for their own escape from reprisals. Those, 
 for example, who sacked Louvain and ravaged 
 Rheims may hope that no provocation would induce 
 the annihilation of Heidelberg or the destruction of 
 Cologne by the Allies. 
 
344 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 Had these lapses occurred under extreme pressure 
 of military necessity, as in a last desperate effort to 
 escape defeat; or even had they been inspired by the 
 wild justice of revenge, they would still have been 
 unpardonable, for the restraints of public law are 
 devised to check siuch hideous license and passion of 
 brutality. The recent crimes of Germany against 
 humanity, however, have none of these palliations. 
 Her atrocities began when the war began ; they were 
 at their height when her forces were " plunging 
 down the path of victory." The plea advanced that 
 it was all in accordance with the military law of 
 reprisals will be examined later in detail: here it is 
 sufficient to say that long before 19 14 Germany had 
 adopted the doctrine of frightfulness in war, though 
 it was hoped that the concert of civilization would 
 restrain her in this epoch of the world's life. The 
 following precept, often erroneously attributed to 
 Bismarck, reflects fairly the underlying principles of 
 the German War-Book: 
 
 " True strategy consists in hitting your enemy, and hitting 
 him hard. . . . Above all, you must inflict on the inhabitants 
 of invaded towns the maximum of suffering, so that they may 
 become sick of the struggle and may bring pressure on their 
 Government to discontinue it. You must leave the people 
 through whom you march only their eyes to weep with." 
 
 No one will quarrel with the first sentence in this 
 pronouncement. Against the armed enemy ruthless 
 vigour is necessary, and it may in the end be the 
 truest humanity; though even against the armed en- 
 emy limits have been set which have been callously 
 disregarded by Germany. The German war-maker, 
 however, is not content with this. The civil popula- 
 tion, the old men, the women and children are to 
 be harried, tortured, robbed of all but their tear- 
 
A GOODLY PRECEDENT 345 
 
 wet eyes, so that their Government may be induced 
 to surrender. Cruelty is to achieve what valour 
 alone might fail to win. This monstrous doctrine is 
 the negation of all human progress. It revives prin- 
 ciples which revolted mankind centuries ago. Shake- 
 speare, whom Germany now claims as her own, puts 
 words into the mouth of Henry V, which express the 
 Ehzabethan, and indeed the Plantagenet, idea of 
 war. Hearing that Bardolph was " like to be 
 hanged for robbing a church," the King says: 
 
 " We would have all such offenders so cut off; and we give 
 express charge, that in our marches through the country there 
 be nothing compelled from the villagers, nothing taken but 
 paid for, none of the French upbraided or abused in disdain- 
 ful language; for when lenity and cruelty play for a King- 
 dom, the gentler gamester is the truest winner." ^ 
 
 The modern War Lords of Germany will have no 
 chivalrous sentiments such as these. Field Marshal 
 von der Goltz expounded the Teutonic war-policy 
 when he declared that the only unpardonable sin is 
 failure, and that, " inexorable and seemingly hideous 
 callousness are among the attributes necessary to 
 him who would achieve great things in war." In 
 similar manner Von Moltke, in his correspondence 
 with Professor Bluntschh, denounced the doctrine 
 that the object of war is simply to weaken the enemy's 
 military strength. In the Kriegshrauch, wherein 
 the German General Staff lays down war-rules for 
 the German forces, this view is upheld. There are 
 plenty of admirable rules (as given in a previous 
 chapter), sentiments which would do honour to 
 Joseph Surface, but they are flanked and outnum- 
 bered by exceptions. Professor Liider, an eminent 
 international jurist, lends legal authority to the Ger- 
 man General Staff, when he qualifies the humanizing 
 
 1 Henry V, Act III, Scene 6. 
 
346 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 doctrine of war usage by emphasizing " the terrorism 
 so often necessary in war." ^ The whole Germanic 
 theory of warfare, indeed, is permeated by the doc- 
 trines of Clausewitz, who denounced magnanimity 
 and benevolence as a fatal error, and declared it to 
 be an absurdity " to introduce a principle of modera- 
 tion into the philosophy of war." 
 
 Such doctrines are incompatible with the interna- 
 tional rules regulating warfare, and it is a singular 
 and significant fact that the Kriegshrauch^ issued for 
 the guidance of the German army, does not include 
 the Hague Regulations, as does the British Manual 
 of Military Law. Germany, in fact, is her own 
 law-maker, and will have no public law. Though 
 she set her hand to The Hague Convention, it was 
 clearly with the secret reservation that its august 
 rules must be subordinated to her own rules which 
 she would make during the course of war. In ef- 
 fect, no law is recognized save that of the " good 
 German conscience," so loudly extolled in the Ger- 
 man Press, and to which Baron Marschall von Bieb- 
 erstein appealed at the Hague Conference, when 
 he refused to accept Great Britain's proposals for 
 restricting the use of marine mines. As things 
 stand, conscience is the only sanction of international 
 law; but when conscience itself knows no rules or 
 limitations, when it stretches to meet every necessity 
 real or imaginary, what then? Well, then we have 
 what we have — " red ruin and the breaking up of 
 laws." 
 
 There are three tribunals before which Germany 
 can be arraigned — her own Kriegshrauch, the So- 
 ciety of Nations, and Humanity. She cannot dis- 
 pute the competency of any one of them to hear the 
 case, for she herself has constructed the first; and 
 
 2 Holtzendorff's Handhuch des Volkerrechts, IV, 378. 
 
BOMBARDMENT OF OPEN TOWNS 347 
 
 since the war began she has appealed to the other 
 two, in regard to bombardment of open towns, the 
 use of dum-dum bullets and the stoppage of food sup- 
 plies. She is, therefore, placed in this dilemma: if 
 she acknowledges The Hague Convention, she 
 pleads guilty; if she does not, she places herself out- 
 side the law of nations, and must submit to be treated 
 as. a barbarian country. But, in framing the indict- 
 ment, let it once more be made clear, that the charge 
 against Germany is not alone that rules have been 
 broken and humanity outraged as that these things 
 have been done according to a settled official policy 
 of terrorism. 
 
 Take, tor example, the bombardment of open and 
 undefended towns, forbidden both by The Hague 
 Convention and by the Kriegshrauch. The law is 
 quite plain, and it does not err on the side of mercy. 
 Fortresses and strong places may always be at- 
 tacked; open towns, villages and houses may be bom- 
 barded when occupied or used for military purposes. 
 When fortresses are bombarded, the bombardment 
 may extend to the whole town, — though the humane 
 commander would naturally avoid that if possible 
 — but churches, schools, libraries, and the like must 
 be spared so far as may be. In no case, however, 
 may hospitals be bombarded. How Germany has 
 obeyed these rules is now known to all the world. 
 Give her the benefit of the doubt, wherever doubt 
 is possible, she still is damnably guilty. It is clear 
 that at Ypres, Arras and Rheims, not only was no 
 care taken to spare historic buildings, but such splen- 
 did monuments as the Cathedral, the Cloth Hall 
 and the Markets were made especial targets. If it 
 may be pleaded that discrimination In long-range 
 fire Is difficult, and that these cities were involved 
 in military operations, no such plea can be advanced 
 
348 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 for the bombardment of Scarborough, Whitby, Yar- 
 mouth and the Norfolk villages. Unfortified, un- 
 occupied by armed forces, the attack upon them was 
 wanton, murderous, and served no military purpose 
 whatever. 
 
 The sanctity of hospitals has been constantly vio- 
 lated. The Cathedral of Rheims was not only a 
 Church, it sheltered wounded men, some of whom 
 perished in the attack. As offensive to all human 
 feeling also was the deliberate attempt made to tor- 
 pedo the hospital ship Asturias on February 2nd, 
 1915, near Havre, although she bore all the signs 
 of her calling — the white hull, the green band, the 
 Red Cross of Geneva. Germany made a futile apol- 
 ogy for this business many weeks after the event, 
 when public opinion in neutral countries was roused 
 and sternly reproachful. The explanation was that 
 the Asturias carried no distinctive lights and that In 
 the dusk of a February evening (5 p. M.) her mark- 
 ings could not be distinguished. 
 
 The apology is as lame as it was belated and un- 
 true. It was a very light and clear evening, and 
 at 5.15 broad daylight, and in no possibility could 
 the character of the ship be mistaken. It was possi- 
 ble to trace the track of the torpedo four hundred 
 yards away.^ But even had it some foundation, does 
 it reduce the guilt of the would-be murderer that, 
 meaning to kill Smith, he fires at Jones, without tak- 
 ing pains to be sure of the identity? To sink a 
 peaceful vessel without warning and without any care 
 for the passengers and crew was contrary to inter- 
 national law and sheer murder. That a civilized na- 
 tion should permit or condone such deeds is sadden- 
 ing and depressing. It never seems to occur to Ger- 
 many that without superior sea-power we are in a 
 
 3 Admiralty statement, Feb. 13th, 1915. 
 
PIRATES 349 
 
 position to make reprisals of a staggering nature, 
 if we are so minded. She appears to think, how- 
 ever, that we have not the courage for reprisals. 
 She regards every exhibition of magnanimity as a 
 sign of weakness, as an appeal for less violence on 
 her part. That the Admiralty should at last take 
 action to show that the British navy was revolted by 
 the German navy's disregard of the rules of war 
 did something to restore British self-respect. It re- 
 fused the honours of war to the officers and crew 
 of submarine U8 for having torpedoed and sunk 
 in the English Channel unarmed merchantmen carry- 
 ing non-combatants, neutrals and women.* 
 
 On August 22nd, 1 9 14, the 47th Regiment of Ger- 
 man Infantry entered the village of Gomery in Bel- 
 gium. The officer in command went to the hos- 
 
 *0n the 8th of March, 1915, the Admirahy made the following 
 announcement: "Since the war began, His Majesty's ships have 
 on every occasion done their utmost to rescue from the sea German 
 officers and men whose vessels have been sunk, and more than 1,000 
 have been saved, often in circumstances of difficulty and danger, 
 although no such treatment has ever yet been shown to British 
 sailors in similar distress. The officers and men thus taken pris- 
 oners have received the treatment appropriate to their rank and 
 such courtesies as the service allows; and in the case of the Emden 
 were accorded the honours of war. The Board of Admiralty do 
 not, however, feel justified in extending honourable treatment to the 
 twenty-nine officers and men rescued from submarine U8. This 
 vessel has been operating in the Straits of Dover and the English 
 Channel during the last few weeks, and there is strong probability 
 that she has been guilty of attacking and sinking unarmed mer- 
 chantmen and firing torpedoes at ships carrying non-combatants, 
 neutrals, and women. In particular, the s.s. Oriole is missing, and 
 there is grave reason to fear she was sunk at the beginning of 
 February with all hands — twenty. There is of course great dif- 
 ficulty in bringing home particular crimes to any individual Ger- 
 man submarine, and it may be that the evidence necessary to es- 
 tablish a conviction will not be obtained until after the conclusion 
 of peace. In the meantime, persons against whom^ such charges 
 are pending must be the subject of special restriction, cannot be 
 accorded the distinctions of their rank, or be allowed to mingle with 
 other prisoners of war." 
 
350 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 pital, asked for an interpreter, and shot the ambu- 
 lance officer as soon as he appeared. He then led 
 his men into the hospital, killed the surgeons and the 
 wounded, and burned the hospital and the village 
 to the ground. That was one way of insulting hu- 
 manity; but ingenuity found another. At Vilvorde, 
 on August 25th, the Germans abused the sanctity of 
 the Red Cross by hoisting its flag over their bar- 
 racks to secure the safety of their soldiers. Yet 
 even the indulgent Kriegshrauch declares abuse of 
 the Red Cross to be so vile as to place the guilty 
 party outside the pale of honourable men. 
 
 At sea the conduct of the war by Germany has 
 been marked by persistent disregard of the rules and 
 the spirit- of modern warfare. She has from the 
 beginning been reckless and remorseless in the use of 
 mines, though at The Hague Conference in 1907 
 Marschall von Bieberstein said that, " A belligerent 
 who lays mines assumes a very heavy responsibility 
 towards neutrals and peaceful navigation." So 
 strongly did the sense of this responsibility press on 
 the British delegates that they protested against the 
 rules adopted as being inadequate for the protection 
 of neutrals or to satisfy humanitarian sentiments. 
 Their statement merits quotation : 
 
 " The high seas are an international high road. If In the 
 present state of international law and custom belligerents are 
 permitted to carry on their quarrels there, it is none the less 
 incumbent upon them to do nothing which could, long after 
 their departure from the spot, render this high road dangerous 
 for neutrals who have an equal right to use it. We declare 
 without hesitation that the rights of neutrals to safety in the 
 navigation of the high seas ought to prevail over the temporary 
 rights of belligerents to make use of them as a place for oper- 
 ations of war." 
 
 Having pointed out how far short of this object 
 
MINES 351 
 
 the Convention fell, the British spokesman con- 
 cluded : 
 
 " It follows that one must not assume that such and such 
 a proceeding is legitimate merely because the Convention does 
 not prohibit it. This is a principle which we make a point 
 of, and one which cannot be neglected by any State, however 
 great be its power." 
 
 This statement, which effectually answers the ac- 
 cusation now so freely made, that Great Britain 
 claims the right to close the neighbouring waters 
 against the world and to make the North Sea mare 
 clausum, will receive general assent. Germany, 
 however, not only dissented from these principles at 
 the time, but she has grossly and continuously broken 
 the Convention since. She has violated Article i, 
 forbidden unanchored automatic contact mines which 
 would not become harmless within an hour of being 
 laid; or the use of anchored contact mines which 
 would not become harmless as soon as they broke 
 loose. She has violated Article 2, prohibiting the 
 laying of automatic contact mines off the enemy's 
 coast and ports with the view of intercepting vessels 
 of commerce; and she has not. In compliance with 
 Article 3, taken any precautions for the security of 
 peaceful shipping. She has never — except in re- 
 gard to her new paper-blockade, in which all neutral 
 shipping is to suffer — notified the danger zones to 
 mariners, or directed the attention of the various 
 Governments to them through diplomatic channels, 
 as required by the Convention, save In such general 
 terms as to nullify the Intention of the rule. 
 
 As a result, live mines have been washed ashore 
 on the coast of Holland, neutral shipping has been 
 destroyed within the North Sea and on the Swedish 
 and Irish Coast. Even fishing-boats, which from 
 
352 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 time immemorial have been regarded as inviolable, 
 have been sunk and their crews drowned or im- 
 prisoned. Very many lives have been lost, and neu- 
 trals have had their trade seriously impeded, while 
 Great Britain has been unwillingly compelled, in self- 
 defence, to lay extensive minefields in the North Sea, 
 though she has scrupulously notified her intentions 
 and has taken every care to protect trading-ships in 
 their passages. 
 
 In his reply to the speech of the British represen- 
 tative above quoted. Baron Marschall von Beiber- 
 stein asserted the principle that military proceedings 
 are not regulated solely by the stipulations of inter- 
 national law. He hinted that they might be over- 
 ridden by the exigencies of warfare ; but on the other 
 hand he declared that the most effectual safeguards 
 against abuse would be such factors as " conscience, 
 good sense, and a sense of the duties which the prin- 
 ciples of humanity impose.'* 
 
 That is " all very fine and large," as the man in 
 the music-hall used to say; but German conscience, 
 good sense and humanity are unequal to the strain 
 of temptation. Under pressure of circumstances 
 Germany's naval warfare has degenerated into 
 piracy of the most ugly and primitive kind. Cap- 
 tain Kidd and Blackbeard made men walk the plank, 
 but the naval heroes of Germany give their victims 
 no such merciful notice. It was by pure good for- 
 tune that only forty out of a company of two thou- 
 sand poor Belgian refugees were drowned, when the 
 dmiral Ganteaume was sunk in the English Channel 
 on October 24th. The ruflians who discharged the 
 torpedo took no futher interest in the business. Not 
 far from the same spot, near Havre, the steamers 
 Tokomaru and Icaria wqvq sunk by a submarine on 
 
MURDERS 353 
 
 January 30th, 19 15, without any warning to the 
 crews as prescribed in The Hague Convention. 
 
 Emboldened by these base, inglorious perform- 
 ances. Germany has declared war against the ship- 
 ping of the whole world. Determined to break 
 away from international law, she first made mock of 
 it by proclaiming a blockade of the British Islands 
 which she proposed to enforce with a score of sub- 
 marines. It would now appear that that proclama- 
 tion was seriously meant. In this alternative Ger- 
 many vitiated her own case, for she acknowledged 
 that there was such a thing as international law, and 
 then declared her intention of violating it by sinking 
 all vessels, under whatever flag, without summons 
 or examination. She has carried her intention into 
 effect. Again and again British vessels — and even 
 neutral vessels — have been sunk by torpedoes with- 
 out notice or examination, without care or regard for 
 the life of passenger non-combatants, who have even 
 been fired upon as their ship went down. 
 
 Cruel as the Germans were at the beginning of 
 this war, their cruelty has steadily increased with 
 each check they have received; until, at last, every 
 law and custom of civilized war has been thrown to 
 the winds; and on land and sea German official atro- 
 cities have been greater than the world has ever 
 known. The work of devils has been done by the 
 German army and navy; and the price of the infamy 
 must be sternly exacted, if Englishmen have still left 
 in them manhood and respect for the honour of hu- 
 manity. To retribution in kind we cannot resort; 
 but if we are just, we shall put these things first in 
 the bill which must be paid at the end of it all. As 
 this chapter goes to the printers, comes the news of 
 the latest German crime of the sea. The command- 
 
354 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 ers of the submarines which, in the last days of 
 March, sank the Falaha and the Aguila have in- 
 vested naval warfare with new niceties of barbar- 
 ism. To give the crew of the Aguila four minutes 
 in which to leave their ship, and then, before even 
 that scanty time had elapsed, to shoot down those 
 who were trying to lower the boats, was a refine- 
 ment of treachery. To sink a great liner, like the 
 Falaha, before passengers and crew could get away 
 had the savagery of wild Indians ; but to steam round 
 and round among the hundred and fifty drowning 
 people — some of them women — mocking their 
 struggles, is worse than savage: it is the now ac- 
 cepted conduct of a German officer.^ 
 
 Not in Great Britain alone has the crime of the 
 Falaha aroused just anger and horror. On March 
 30th and 31st American newspapers exclaimed in 
 indignation against the crime. The New York 
 Times expressed even more moderately than many 
 of its colleagues the general feeling, when it said : 
 
 *' The sinking of the Falaha is perhaps the most shocking 
 crime of the war. It is a crime directly chargeable against 
 Germany, a crime for which Germany will be held responsible 
 In the judgment of civilization, unless an official disclaimer 
 of the act as unauthorized and condemned is promptly forth- 
 coming. It is well-nigh Incredible, whatever threats Ger- 
 many may have made in the war-zone proclamation, that she 
 should have Issued to the commanders of her submarines 
 orders to commit these crimes of inhuman atrocity. The ob- 
 jects of war are not furthered by the slaughter of innocent 
 men and women." 
 
 For the Germans to plead that the development of 
 the submarine has revolutionized the laws of naval 
 
 5 On April i8th, 1915, a German submarine sank the trawler 
 Vanilla, and then attacked the crew of her consort, the Fermoi 
 while they were trying to save their drowning comrades. 
 
ORGANIZED TERRORISM 355 
 
 warfare is conscienceless. The laws are there, sub- 
 scribed to by Germany, valid until they are changed 
 by the Society of Nations. If their observance by 
 submarines is impossible, then submarines should be 
 employed for work which is in accordance with in- 
 ternational law. On that basis England is wholly 
 justified in the blockade she is enforcing against Ger- 
 many, by which she prevents all supplies from reach- 
 ing German ports via the North Sea. In doing so 
 she respects both property and human life and de- 
 stroys neither. The shameless crimes which have 
 been committed since February i8th, 19 15, and the 
 previous attacks on the Asturias and other vessels, 
 have been simply an application of the doctrine of 
 frightfulness. Vice-Admiral Kirchoff, of the Ger- 
 man Navy, admitted as much in an article in the 
 Hamburger Fremdenhlatt. He said that there was 
 no question of a regular blockade, as Germany had 
 not sufficient war material at her disposal. When 
 establishing the war zone Germany's great aim was 
 to bring a feeling of uneasiness and insecurity to a 
 climax, so that human nerve could not stand the 
 strain long.^ This Is the doctrine of Schrechlichkeit 
 In a nutshell. 
 
 To see it In Its fullest development, we must turn 
 to the war on land; and for the present purpose It 
 will be sufficient to treat of the Western area which 
 contributes proofs minutely sifted and examined.'^ 
 
 Twelve months ago Belgium was peaceful, pros- 
 
 6 London Standard, February 20th, 1915. 
 
 ■^ To avoid multiplying references, it may here be said that most 
 of the facts as to the German atrocities in Belgium and France 
 are taken from the Reports of the French and Belgian Commis- 
 sions. M. Northomb's article in the Re'vue des deux Mondes, the 
 facts of which are derived from official sources has been drawn 
 upon, as has also Professor Bedier's remarkable pamphlet, Les 
 Crimes Allemands d'apres des temoignages allemands, which con- 
 tains facsimiles of German diaries, letters and newspaper articles. 
 
356 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 perous, happy, a densely populated hive of industry, 
 and her peasants were sowing a harvest they would 
 never reap. In her workshops artisans were busy, 
 the hammers and looms were never still. Students 
 from many countries were studying in her great uni- 
 versity; from all the world visitors came to see her 
 ancient cities — dreams of beauty, monuments of a 
 splendid past, treasure-houses of art. It was a na- 
 tion given over to the arts of peace; coveting the 
 territory of no other nation; quarrelling with none; 
 desiring only to be free; content to live out its life 
 of patient endeavour, " storing yearly little dues of 
 wheat and wine and oil." 
 
 Of this people what is left to-day? Hundreds of 
 thousands are in exile, living on charity — even those 
 once wealthy — in foreign lands, all In discomfort, 
 many in wretchedness and robbed even of hope. 
 Their King fights in the trenches in the last corner 
 of his kingdom, his Government sits in alien terri- 
 tory. The lot of those who fled in that awful ex- 
 odus is wretched, the lot of those who have stayed 
 behind Is Infinitely worse. They crouch In ruins 
 which once were homes. They call for bread and 
 salt, and It Is not forthcoming. They would have 
 starved altogether but for the great-hearted pity of 
 other nations. They are the wards of the world. 
 The nation which had reduced them to this pass Is 
 content to see them perish of the famine It has made. 
 What supplies it did not destroy in burning towns 
 and granaries. It seized, and still demanded more, 
 while levying immense fines. When charity poured 
 food Into Belgium, the conquerors balanced It by 
 making larger requisitions; and they did so by a frau- 
 dulent evasion of the spirit of their engagements to 
 the people of America, Canada and Australia who 
 sent these gifts. 
 
CARDINAL MERCIER'S PASTORAL 357 
 
 Beside all that has been written about Belgium, its 
 miseries, and the evil done to it, the famous Pastoral 
 Letter of Cardinal Mercier, Archbishop of Malines 
 and Primate of Belgium stands out in striking vivid- 
 ness and power. Seldom to the modern world has 
 there been given a message of greater character, no- 
 bility and rare description. After giving details of 
 barbarities committed, of " churches, schools, asy- 
 lums, hospitals, convents," In ruins and ♦" entire vil- 
 lages " obliterated, the Cardinal says: 
 
 " Hundreds of innocent men were shot. I possess no com- 
 plete necrology; but I know that there were ninety-one shot 
 at Aerschot, and that there under pain of death their fellow- 
 citizens were compelled to dig their graves. In the Louvain 
 group of communes one hundred and seventy-six persons, men 
 and women, old men and sucklings, rich and poor, in health 
 and sickness, were shot or burnt. In my diocese alone I know 
 that thirteen priests or religious were put to death.^ . . . We 
 can neither number our dead nor compute the measure of 
 our ruins. And what would it be if we turned our sad steps 
 towards Liege, Namur, Andenne, Dinant, Tamines, Charle- 
 roi, and elsewhere ? " 
 
 This courageous prince of his church, whose Pas- 
 toral is the sternest Indictment of Germany yet 
 drawn, gives the names of thirty priests In the dio- 
 cese of Namur, Tournal, and Liege, all of whom, to 
 his own personal knowledge were slain In cold blood, 
 and declares that his people look to be righted, and 
 that ^' they will not hear of surrender." The three 
 nations of the Entente have pledged themselves that 
 he will not be disappointed. 
 
 Termonde, Huy, Dinant, and Aerschot, once 
 places of pleasantness and home, are scenes of deso- 
 lation and ruin which bats and owls Inhabit, where 
 only the voice of the furtive mourner Is heard. Ma- 
 
 * The names of priests and parishes are given. 
 
358 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 lines IS shattered; the glorious Cloth Hall of Ypres 
 is a wreck; churches, the glory of Europe, desecrated 
 by indescribable bestiality, are shapeless ruins; Lou- 
 vain, that sweet and ancient seat of learning, is a 
 place of desolation. The German, reproached, 
 shrugs his shoulders as did the Duke of Wurtemburg, 
 and, neither resentful nor compassionate, says, 
 " What would you ! This is war." 
 
 Yes, it is war; but it is not a war which belongs to 
 civilization. It is not even war as it has been under- 
 stood by heathendom for three thousand years. Here 
 is the vital issue between the accusers and the apolo- 
 gists of Germany: has the devastation of Belgium 
 been a deliberate method or a stern necessity of 
 war? Germany says it is the latter. xA.ll has been 
 forced upon her by the acts of her enemies, which 
 justify punishment and reprisal. She takes her 
 stand upon the notorious telegram from Berlin early 
 last August, which unloosed the storms of wanton- 
 ness, of murder and of woe: 
 
 " The only means of preventing surprise attacks from the 
 civil population has been to interfere with unrelenting sever- 
 ity, and to create examples which by their {rightfulness would 
 be a warning to the whole country." 
 
 The question to be examined is whether this procla- 
 mation was merely intended to meet infractions of 
 law by the Belgians, or whether it was not an enuncia- 
 tion of the doctrine of terrorism preached by Clause- 
 witz and Bismarck. 
 
 The first point to be observed is that the presump- 
 tion is against Germany. She does not come into 
 court with clean hands. As has been shown in an- 
 other chapter,^ her war record is one crimson with 
 dishonour. She has stood aloof from the onward 
 
 9 Civilization and this War, chap. xvi. 
 
SLAUGHTER OF THE INNOCENT 359 
 
 march of humanity. Her policy has been that of 
 the " hammer and the skull " — the skull and cross- 
 bones. When, therefore, she has to answer charges 
 of violence and cruelty, we are entitled to demand 
 from her plainer proofs of innocence than from 
 other Western nations. When pressed to meet, by 
 proof, the charges made against her, there have been 
 blank denials, or the charges have been ignored; or, 
 with an almost Oriental cunning, the protesting Gov- 
 ernments have been invited to give the names of the 
 offending soldiers ! 
 
 The charge is not that this soldier or that killed or 
 mutilated a certain person, but that thousands of per- 
 sons have been killed and thousands of houses de- 
 stroyed by order of German officers. What they 
 have to do is to prove that these acts were justified 
 through a war-crime committed by the civilian popu- 
 lation. Except in the case of Aerschot, there has 
 never been an attempt to fix an offence against the 
 laws of war upon individuals. It is, indeed, beyond 
 peradventure that in some cases there was no provo- 
 cation at all. A Saxon officer of the 178th Regi- 
 ment, 1 2th Army Corps, describes in his diary the 
 destruction of a village in the Ardennes. Here is 
 his frank histoire: 
 
 " August 26th. The charming village of Gue-d' Hossus 
 has been delivered to the flames, though, as far as I can see, 
 it is quite innocent. I am told that a cyclist fell from his 
 machine, and that in his fall his rifle went off of itself, where- 
 upon the place was fired. They then simply flung the male 
 inhabitants into the flames." 
 
 There have also been cases when such tragedies 
 were only averted by chance. In the Revue des 
 Deux Mondes, M. Northomb relates a case in point. 
 In a certain district a shot was fired which killed a 
 
36o THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 horse; the customary vengeance of shooting the in- 
 habitants was about to be taken when an officer, less 
 impulsive than the rest, thought well to order an 
 autopsy, which proved that the animal had been 
 killed by a Mauser bullet. The Mauser bullet is 
 only used by the German army. An illuminating in- 
 cident also occurred at Croismare. While the Cure 
 was talking to a German officer a shot was fired. 
 *' M. le Cure," said the officer, " that is enough to 
 have you and the Maire shot, and to burn a farm to 
 the ground. Look, there is one burning already." 
 *' But," replied the Cure, " you are too intelligent 
 not to recognize the sharp sound of your own rifle." 
 To this the officer made no answer. He knew that 
 rifles speak with different accents, and he recognized 
 his own. Nevertheless the farm was burned. 
 
 It is possible, and even probable, that here and 
 there civilians committed acts of violence against 
 German soldiers. If it be true, as General von 
 Boehn declared, that his staff-officer was killed in his 
 presence by the son of the householder in whose 
 home they had been carousing, it is necessary to 
 know .what attempt upon the family honour had 
 roused that inoffensive youth of sixteen to his fatal 
 fury. Punishment should only follow after careful 
 inquiry, but any pretext sufficed for men whose aim 
 was to be terrible. 
 
 And they were terrible enough. In many places 
 a thousand perished where no one was guilty of any 
 offence whatever. The crimes committed have 
 shocked the world, but what happened at Tamines 
 would have made the wife of Agamemnon cover her 
 face. After an artillery engagement the Germans 
 carried a bridge across the Sambre, and entered the 
 village at 5 p.m. on August 21st, 19 14. Imme- 
 diately the work of pillage began. The inhabitants 
 
TAMINES AND DINANT 361 
 
 fled from their homes, only to be overtaken and ar- 
 rested the next day. On that summer evening, Sat- 
 urday, August 22nd, the Germans turned from pil- 
 lage to massacre. Before the church by the river 
 bank they began the slaughter of over four hundred 
 men. Finding rifles too slow, the officers ordered up 
 a machine-gun, and turned it on the guiltless, shud- 
 dering crowd. In a few minutes, ragged columns of 
 helpless victims, in the hands of men worse than those 
 Lobengula ever commanded, were heaps of mangled 
 flesh and shattered bone. Force and frightfulness, 
 lead and steel, had once more proclaimed themselves 
 masters over human beings as unarmed as ever Adam 
 was. Seven of these poor souls were only wounded, 
 and they were despatched with thrusts and blows. 
 Some feigned death, and lay all night with the dead, 
 only to be buried alive with the other victims by the 
 order of a doctor. Then, with a fiendish refinement 
 of cruelty, the women and children, the widows and 
 orphans — such as had escaped being burned alive 
 or suffocated in their burning homes — were forced, 
 by the commanding officer, to shout, " Long live Ger- 
 many." What was the offence which drew down 
 this punishment? None has ever even been alleged. 
 Dinant figures often in the pages of Froissart. In 
 the course of ages the town has witnessed many 
 scenes of savage warfare, but none so dreadful as 
 those of four fatal days in August, 19 14. From 
 the 22nd to the 25th of that month this beautiful 
 place was given over to rapine and murder. It was 
 innocent of any offence. There had been fighting 
 some little time before; but for days all had been 
 calm; there had been no Germans near the town; 
 there had been no opportunity for the civil popula- 
 tion to offend, even had they wished. The Germans 
 entered the town in the evening of the 21st, and as 
 
362 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 they marched they began firing at the houses, killing 
 a workman going home, wounding another, and forc- 
 ing him to cry, " Long live the Kaiser." Having 
 bayoneted a third inhabitant in the stomach, they 
 proceeded to get drunk. Saturday, August 22nd, 
 was quiet, for the people were hidden in their houses. 
 On Sunday the storm fell. The Church of the Pre- 
 monstratensian Fathers was invaded, the congrega- 
 tion were driven out, and fifty men were killed. 
 Then hell spilled over. Houses were sacked; the 
 flying inhabitants were shot; men, women, and chil- 
 dren were driven into the Parade Square, and there 
 kept prisoners for nine hours under constant threats 
 of death. At six in the evening, by order of an 
 officer, the men were grouped separately and mur- 
 dered. They fell in heaps, and volley after volley 
 was poured into the writhing mass, while the poor 
 wives and children of the victims were compelled to 
 witness the ghastly scene. There was no inquiry, 
 no accusation, no pretence of a trial. Next day and 
 the day after the hideous work proceeded. A crowd 
 of workmen with their wives, children, and others 
 hid in the cellars of M. Himmer's factory, but on 
 the evening of the 23rd they issued forth, holding 
 up a white flag, only to be mown down. In another 
 cellar twelve civilians were killed, an aged paralytic 
 was shot in his chair, and a boy of 14 was killed in 
 the Rue Enfer — appropriate name. Following on 
 such horrible incidents there was a bloody massacre 
 at the railway viaduct in the Faubourg de Neffe. An 
 old woman and all her children were killed in their 
 cellar; an old man, with his wife, son and daughter 
 were placed against a wall and shot; an aged crone 
 of 83 and her husband were taken with others in a 
 barge down the river and there butchered. Having 
 shut up some men and women in the courtyard of the 
 
JEMAPPES 363 
 
 prison, the Germans eventually opened fire upon 
 them with a machine-gun from a neighbouring hill, 
 and killed an old woman and three others. The 
 Belgian official report on this horror ends thus: 
 
 *' To sum up, the town of Dinant Is destroyed. It counted 
 1,400 houses; only 200 remain. The manufactories where 
 the artisan population worked have been systematically de- 
 stroyed. Rather more than 700 of the Inhabitants have been 
 killed; others have been taken off to Germany, and are still 
 retained there as prisoners of war. The majority are refu- 
 gees scattered through Belgium. A few who remained In the 
 town are dying of hunger." 
 
 The cases of Tamines and Dinant have been given, 
 not because they are more atrocious than others, but 
 because they present some significant features of re- 
 semblance. In both, the Germans commenced their 
 work immediately on entering the town, and before 
 the inhabitants had time to give offence. In both, 
 masses of men were massacred. In both, machine- 
 guns w^ere employed; in both, the wounded were 
 brutally despatched; and In both, the victims were 
 forced to cheer their persecutors and murderers. 
 Most Important of all, these two events took place si- 
 multaneously. They were the work of two different 
 bodies of troops, acting independently. These facts re- 
 veal a careful pre-arranged programme of frightful- 
 ness, carried out precisely and according to schedule. 
 
 At Jemappes, also, there was massacre foul and 
 unprovoked. The Germans were pressing forward 
 to envelop the British forces at Mons, and to achieve 
 their object poured thousands of men against 
 Jemappes. Their advance was checked by 210 Brit- 
 ish soldiers who, under an heroic leader. Captain 
 Ross, held back on the canal a hundred times as many 
 of the enemy until the crucial moment had passed. 
 Baffled and furious, the Germans wreaked their 
 
364 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 vengeance upon the unhappy village. The story 
 was told to a correspondent of the Daily Tele- 
 graph ^^ by Mrs. Frankel, an English lady present 
 at the engagement. In it she says : 
 
 " It was wicked. The Germans rushed about in all direc- 
 tions committing the wildest excesses. They broke into 
 houses and bayoneted the inhabitants, women and children 
 as well. Then they burned the houses. Three chateaux, 
 over a hundred houses, and the beautiful church were all fired 
 with paraffin. The house in which I was sheltering was set 
 fire to in five places, and I had a miraculous escape from death. 
 The inhabitants had done nothing. The excuse given by the 
 Germans was that they had been fired on at Liege, and any- 
 how, they added, ' The people of Jemappes helped the English 
 to build their trenches.' " 
 
 In view of the fact that the Germans have com- 
 pelled British prisoners to make trenches for them- 
 selves, the latter plea will hardly carry conviction. 
 
 Even could the Germans prove provocation, they 
 would not be purged of the charge of organized of- 
 ficial atrocity. The Hague Convention forbids col- 
 lective punishment; international law puts limits on 
 the right of reprisal. This restriction Germany has 
 hideously ignored. She has flaunted her defiance 
 in the face of the nations. In his Proclamation of 
 October 5th, Field-Marshal von der Goltz, appro- 
 priately transferred to the Turkish Army at a later 
 date, announced that in case of damage to railway 
 lines and telegraph wires, the neighbouring localities 
 would be — 
 
 " Punished without pity ; it matters little if they are accom- 
 plices or not." 
 
 General von Biilow, in a Proclamation of August 
 
 J® April ist, 1915. 
 
PROCLAMATIONS 365 
 
 22nd, complacently assumed responsibility for the 
 massacre of Andenne: 
 
 *' The inhabitants of Andenne, after having protested 
 their peaceful intentions, made a surprise attack on our troops. 
 It was with my consent that the General had the whole place 
 burnt down, and about 100 people shot. I bring this fact 
 to the knowledge of the town of Liege, so that its inhabitants 
 may .know the facts with which they are threatened, if they 
 take up a similar attitude." 
 
 There are two points to be noted in this atrocious 
 document. First, no proof has ever been given that 
 the people of Andenne attacked the Germans — in 
 fact, the evidence is all the other way. Again, 
 though General von Biilow sanctioned the murder 
 of " about 10 people," which was illegal, in fact 
 nearly 300 were slaughtered, while 400 more dis- 
 appeared into captivity. 
 
 Could anything be more ghastly In conception and 
 purpose than the Proclamation issued by the German 
 authorities at Rhelms? This is the insult to Hu- 
 manity which must stand forever as a reflection on 
 German character: 
 
 " With a view to securing adequately the safety of the 
 troops, and to instil calm into the population of Rheims, the 
 persons named below (81 in number, and including all the 
 leading citizens of the town) have been seized as hostages by 
 the Commander-in-Chief of the German Army. These hos- 
 tages will be hanged at the slightest attempt at disorder. 
 Also, the town will be totally or partially burned, and the 
 inhabitants will be hanged for any infraction of the above." 
 
 From what has been said, then, it appears that, even 
 if punishment was justified, it was hideously and 
 grotesquely excessive, while it Is clear that nowhere 
 was sufficient inquiry made. All this serves to dis- 
 credit the plea of reprisals and to justify the charge 
 
366 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 of official organized atrocity as a method of policy; 
 and the variety in invention of cruelty and terrorism 
 would do credit to professional murderers or the 
 authors of shilling shockers of crime. As early as 
 August 27th, we find General von Nicher demanding 
 two million francs in gold from the Burgomaster of 
 [Wavre, and another million to be paid on September 
 1st as a war indemnity; and concluding his demand 
 with these words : 
 
 " If these payments are not made, the town of Wavre will 
 be destroyed and burnt, the innocent suffering with the 
 guilty." 
 
 Like General von der Goltz, General Nicher 
 makes no discrimination. All are to suffer alike, the 
 aged crone, the tiny infant, the bed-ridden ancient, 
 the nuns in their cloisters. Yet such renegades from 
 civilization have the effrontery to talk of just re- 
 prisals ! They came prepared for the work that lay 
 before them, provided with fuses and hand-grenades, 
 with inflammable tablets of nitro-cellulose glycerine, 
 thoughtfully concocted by Professor Ostwald of 
 Leipzig, that light of the German intellectuals. 
 iWIth Teutonic thoroughness the army was equipped 
 and drilled for systematic destruction. Eye-wit- 
 nesses have testified to the methodical nature of the 
 work. 
 
 Had only the prudence of the German statesmen 
 equalled the providence of the German War Lords ! 
 There are those who believe that all this horror and 
 misery, this welter of slaughter, this crime against 
 humanity, this degradation of a great nation would 
 never have occurred were Bismarck, rough-hearted 
 and relentless as he was. Chancellor of Germany to- 
 day. Would he, who saw in England " an old and 
 traditional ally," and declared " the preservation of 
 
THE NEUTRAL'S DUTY 367 
 
 Anglo-German friendship to be the most important 
 thing," have menaced her with a navy, and outraged 
 her conscience by the violation of Belgium? Author 
 of many tragedies, he would certainly have shrunk 
 from this, the greatest tragedy of all. Bismarck 
 played for peace, but always for safety also. 
 
 Germany pleads the hostihty of Belgium and the 
 exigencies of war. She has no right to plead the 
 first, she should be ashamed to plead the latter. 
 Who made Belgium Germany's enemy but Germany 
 herself? By common decency, as by the law of na- 
 tions, she Is estopped from regarding Belgium's de- 
 fence of her neutrality as the act of an enemy. It is 
 a remarkable fact that the only clauses of the Hague 
 Convention incorporated In the German Kriegs- 
 hrauch deal with these very points: (i) that the 
 territory of neutral States Is inviolable; (2) that 
 belligerents may not move troops, or convoys of 
 munitions and supplies across neutral territory; (3) 
 that : 
 
 *' The fact of a neutral Power resisting, even by force, at- 
 tempts to violate its neutrality cannot be regarded as a hostile 
 act." 
 
 It Is stupefying that these articles were adopted on 
 the motion of the representatives of the German 
 Emperor himself at The Hague. 
 
 It Is, of course, idle to expect that Germany, hav- 
 ing broken Article i, should feel herself bound by 
 Article 2. Having crossed the border, she was 
 bound to fight her way forward; but she was also 
 bound by every honourable and humane obligation 
 of decency and honour — if they can be mentioned in 
 such a connection — to do so with forbearance, re- 
 membering that she alone was responsible for the 
 situation. It was her duty to avoid doing damage 
 
368 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 as far as possible; to be scrupulous in the observa- 
 tion of the rights of the inhabitants; to ignore acci- 
 dental and incidental breaches of strict military 
 usage. 
 
 Even were Germany's invasion of Belgium legiti- 
 mate, she could not escape the charge of ruthless bar- 
 barity. This is not the first time that Belgium has 
 been the theatre of war. For centuries she has been 
 the stage on which pitiless barbarian commanders and 
 their heathen soldiers have played the grim drama, 
 in days when the Society of Nations was unknown, 
 when sack and pillage were ordinary incidents of war- 
 fare. War had its exigencies then as now, and com- 
 manders construed them to suit their convenience, 
 unfettered by international law. All the great cap- 
 tains of eight centuries have fought on the plains of 
 Flanders; Louvain and Malines, Dinant and Ypres, 
 have seen archers and musketeers, knights and free 
 companies, disciplined armies and ravenous banditti 
 come and go ; and the cities survived until the Ger- 
 man came in 19 14. 
 
 The destruction of great buildings, of cathedrals, 
 such as that of Rheims, of a University like that of 
 Louvain, of the Hotel de Ville at Lille, and the Cloth 
 Market at Ypres, have no parallel In the world. 
 Buildings like the Cathedral at Rheims had seen war 
 and the horrors of war storm upon them, and pass 
 them by; leaving them unscarred and beautiful still. 
 Through generations of turmoil and destruction the 
 noble architectures of Europe have remained as 
 monuments to some elemental, spiritual sense and 
 reverence In the minds of past gladiators — Persians, 
 Turks, Goths, Gauls, and CimbrI — which prevented 
 the ruin of that which was dedicated to great or holy 
 uses. The German armies of 19 14 spurned the prec- 
 edents of history and time. Disturbed by the criti- 
 
RHEIMS 369 
 
 cism of the world, they have, however, denied that 
 they meant to destroy Rheims Cathedral; they have 
 declared that it was In the line of the French bat- 
 teries, and that it had been used by the French troops 
 as an observatory. Mr. Richard Harding Davis, 
 the well-known American writer and war correspond- 
 ent, who was present during a portion of the bom- 
 bardment, in an article in Scribner^s Magazine of 
 January, 19 15, after describing the destruction of 
 the Cathedral as one of the greatest crimes in his- 
 tory, says: 
 
 " I asked the Abbe Chlnot ^^ whether he had permitted the 
 French officers to occupy the towers. ... He told me most 
 vehemently and earnestly that at no time had any officers been 
 permitted to make use of the church for military purposes. 
 For two nights, to protect the non-combatants of the city from 
 airships, he had permitted the soldiers to place a search-light 
 in the tower. But, fearing this would be construed by the 
 Germans as a hostile act, he had ordered the search-light to be 
 removed. And it was not until five nights after it had been 
 removed that the Germans began to bombard. . . . The other 
 excuse of the Germans, that the French artillery was so placed 
 that to fire at it without striking the Cathedral was Impossible, 
 is so trifling as to be insolent. The Cathedral was not in 
 the line of fire between the French battery and the German 
 batterj^ It was between the two French batteries." (He 
 adds that these batteries were two miles from the Cathedral 
 on either side.) 
 
 To Mr. Davis' scathing indictment, written in De- 
 cember, the Germans have pleaded guilty by their 
 renewed bombardment of Rheims in February, shat- 
 tering the noble roof which had withstood their for- 
 mer onslaught. Every motive of policy forbade 
 them to renew a deed which had angered the world 
 and served no military purpose ; therefore, to sheer 
 
 11 In authority in the absence of Archbishop Landreux at Korae. 
 
370 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 savagery must be ascribed the crime from first to last. 
 
 Reprisals, exigencies of war ! No casuistry will 
 ever convince the world that the treatment of the 
 Invaded territories of Belgium and France, has not 
 been a deliberate official policy. By cowing the peo- 
 ple at the very beginning, by overwhelming cruelty, 
 by striking terror into the minds of the people, it was 
 hoped to bring the western war to a speedy end, so 
 as to leave the German armies free to deal with Rus- 
 sia. That, as is known, was the German strategical 
 Idea. The stubbornness of Belgium, the stout- 
 heartedness of France, the intervention of England 
 threatened to wreck the well-laid plan. Then Ger- 
 many resolved to achieve by the help of terror what 
 she could not gain by arms alone. 
 
 Mr. Frank Fox, a war correspondent of reputa- 
 tion, shows that this official policy of terrorism was 
 dehberately and carefully fitted In with Belgium's 
 repeated refusals to compromise with her honour.^^ 
 He says that after the destruction of Liege, the Ger- 
 man Government made, as we all know, an offer to 
 Belgium that, having satisfied her sense of honour 
 by heroic resistance, she should allow the German 
 army to pass through without resistance, and that 
 Belgian territory would not be retained or annexed, 
 but would be evacuated after the war. It was sub- 
 sequent to Belgium's stern rejection of the German 
 proposal, that frightfulness was extensively de- 
 veloped, and the laws of war and the dictates of hu- 
 manity were Ignored, though already at Vise and 
 elsewhere it had been rigorously applied. 
 
 Mr. Fox observes that on August 19th, the Ger- 
 man army occupied Louvain peaceably; that up to 
 August 25th there were no outrages; but that on 
 August 25th a German force, moving on Antwerp, 
 
 '^^ Nineteenth Century, January, 1915. 
 
CALCULATED CRUELTY 371 
 
 was defeated, and the outrage came on the night of 
 the 26th, with the return of the discomfited war- 
 riors to Louvain. Mr. Fox cogently argues that the 
 systematic sack of Louvain and the massacre of its 
 people was not the result of mere anger and mur- 
 derous impulse, but — 
 
 " A designed act of war, decided upon after the defeat of 
 the 24th of August, and intended to warn Belgium of the 
 consequences of continuing to harass the German advance." 
 
 Termonde and Malines were also destroyed ut- 
 terly because the Belgian Government still persisted 
 in refusing to accept German occupation and the in- 
 vasion of her neutrality. The resistance of Bel- 
 gium was disastrously interfering with Germany's 
 advance upon France; it was causing her to keep a 
 couple of Army Corps at work to contain the Bel- 
 gian army; so, to break the spirit of the Belgian na- 
 tion, towns and cities and villages were sacrificed in 
 circumstances of horror and savagery. When it was 
 seen that this pohcy of terrorism and murder pro- 
 duced no effect save to inspire the Belgians with 
 an everlasting heroism, it was not pursued in the 
 same proportion. Mr. Fox, In writing of this, uses 
 the following words: 
 
 " The Incidents of beastliness, the strange degenerate acts 
 of nastiness and sacrilege, with which the Germans spiced 
 their ordered and deliberate cruelties, must be set down to the 
 account of the tiger and the ape still surviving in our human 
 nature. German officers and soldiers were not always content 
 to kill out of hand and to burn quickly. They had to torture 
 men beforehand, and to desecrate and insult beautiful build- 
 ings before destroying them." 
 
 That Is the statement made by a correspondent 
 who was in Louvain and in Antwerp In the days of 
 which he writes. Mr. Powell, the correspondent of 
 
372 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 the New York Herald, summed the matter up in his 
 interview with General von Boehn, the destroyer of 
 Aerschot. The General defended his act as one of 
 righteous retribution. 
 
 '' The townspeople only got what they deserved/' 
 he remarked. 
 
 " But why wreak your vengeance on women and 
 children?" Mr. Powell asked. 
 
 " None have been killed," said the General posi- 
 tively. 
 
 "I myself," replied Mr. Powell, " have seen the 
 mutilated bodies. . . . How about the women I saw 
 with the hands and feet cut off? How about the 
 little girl, two years old, shot in her mother's arms? 
 How about the old man that was hung from the raf- 
 ters of his house and roasted to death by a bonfire 
 being built under him? " 
 
 The disconcerted General, then, we are told, fell 
 back on the plea that soldiers sometimes get out of 
 hand. 
 
 ^ This explanation might cover the act of the sol- 
 diers at Dinant who entered the National Bank and 
 shot the manager and his son because they refused 
 to open the safe; but it cannot cover organized pil- 
 lage by the German army. The Duke of Gronau 
 superintended the pillage of the Chateau of Villiers- 
 Notre-Dame, when 146 plates, 236 enamelled 
 spoons, three gold watches, 1,500 bottles of wine, 
 besides ducks, chickens, linen and children's clothes 
 were removed. It is stated, in an article on Ger- 
 man atrocities in the special number of the Field,^^ 
 that Prince Eitel Fritz, son of the War-Lord himself, 
 plundered a chateau near Liege, and sent the whole 
 of his hostess's wardrobe to Germany. He has 
 
 12 Quoting the article by M. Northomb in Re'vue des deux 
 Mondes. 
 
CIVILIANS AS SHIELDS 373 
 
 since received the Order of Merit. Following their 
 example, an officer at Baron, on the Oise, stole 8,300 
 francs from the safe of M. Robert, a notary; while 
 another swaggered about the town with nine women's 
 rings on his hands. Robbing was made easy by 
 order. At Luneville, General von Forbender ac- 
 tually issued to the citizens a Proclamation that, 
 " Anyone who shall have deliberately hidden money 
 . . . shall be shot." By the Hague Convention 
 private property must be respected, the Kriegsbrauch 
 denounces looting as burglary; but this product of 
 German Kultiir makes it a capital offence for a citi- 
 zen to conceal his savings from German plunderers. 
 
 There is, in the German army, an iron discipline 
 unknown in any other army in the world; it is the 
 boast of the nation, it has been proved unbreakable 
 on numberless stricken fields. German professors 
 well-tutored by their masters, have declared that 
 German troops in this war are " not behaving with 
 indiscipline." This is precisely the case which is 
 made against Germany: that the horrors of the so- 
 called reprisals, that the other atrocities committed 
 where there was no question of reprisal, are not acts 
 of indiscipline but the application of a deliberate 
 policy. 
 
 Let us take a few cases. Contrary to law and 
 humanity civilians have been dragged into the firing 
 line as a shield for the soldiers. It has been done 
 by German officers who have plumed themselves upon 
 it. Thus, First Lieutenant Eberlein, of a Bavarian 
 regiment, recounted the following exploit with pride 
 in the Munchener Neueste Nachrichten. It oc- 
 curred in an action where the Germans were holding 
 a village: 
 
 " I had an excellent idea. I had three civilians arrested 
 and had them placed in chairs in the middle of the street. 
 
374 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 They objected, but I replied to their supplications with a gun- 
 butt. . . . The fire directed at our men at once diminished, 
 and my men were thus masters of the principal street. . . . 
 As I learned later, the Bavarian Reserve Regiment, which was 
 on the north side of the town, made a similar experiment to 
 mine. Four civilians, whom they also placed on chairs in the 
 middle of the street, were killed by French bullets. I saw 
 them myself lying in the middle of the street near the hos- 
 pital." 
 
 It IS difficult to imagine such a thing being done by 
 the offiicer of any civilized army, but to boast of it 
 afterwards bespeaks a depravity apparently peculiar 
 to Germany among Western nations. 
 
 Again, take the description of a fight near Hanon- 
 ville, in an article written by Under-Officer Klemt, of 
 the 154th Infantry Regiment, and published In the 
 Jauersches Tagehlatt, of October i8th, 19 14, under 
 the title of " A Day of Honour for our Regiment " : 
 
 " In a small hollow we found crowds of dead and wounded 
 Frenchmen. We gave no quarter, we smashed or transfixed 
 the wounded. . . . Beside me I heard a curious cracking: 
 they were blows of a rifle-butt which a soldier of the 154th 
 was vigorously applying to the bald head of a wounded 
 Frenchman; for this job he very prudently used a French 
 rifle, for fear of breaking his own. Men of particularly 
 tender soul did the wounded French the favour of finishing 
 them off with a bullet, but the others took their chance with 
 the stock or the bayonet. . . . There the wounded were ly- 
 ing, groaning and asking for quarter. But whether they 
 were slightly or severely wounded, our brave fusiliers saved 
 the country the expense of treating so many enemies." 
 
 Only the excesses of some bad men who had got 
 out of hand, remark the Duke of Wiirtemburg and 
 General von Boehn! That will not do here. 
 Klemt's article was " certified exact " by his own su- 
 perior officer, Lieutenant De Niem. Nor is this an 
 
BUTCHERING THE WOUNDED 375 
 
 isolated case. Reservist Relnhard Brenneisen, 4th 
 Company, 112th Regiment, Miilhausen, records in 
 his diary, under date of August 21st, 19 14, how, 
 " There came a Brigade Order that all French sol- 
 diers, whether wounded or not, who fell into our 
 hands, should be shot. No prisoners were to be 
 made." 
 
 If further proof Is needed of the disregard of the 
 laws of war by the German army, the following 
 Order issued to the 58th Brigade, on August 26th, 
 should be noted: 
 
 " From to-day no prisoners will be taken. All prisoners 
 will be killed. The wounded, whether armed or unarmed, 
 will be slaughtered. Even prisoners already collected in con- 
 voys w^ill be killed. Not a single living enemy shall remain 
 behind us. 
 
 (Signed) Lieutenant and Company Leader, Stoy. 
 Col. and Reg. Commander, Neubauer. 
 General, commanding Brigade, Stenger." 
 
 The German General Staff do not forbid the mur- 
 der of prisoners. They may be killed — 
 
 " In case of overwhelming necessity, when other means of 
 precaution do not exist, and the existence of prisoners becomes 
 a danger to one's own existence." ^* 
 
 Necessity is a truly Germanic plea. Other nations 
 have had prisoners and found them embarrassing. 
 More than once the Boers were In that plight in the 
 South African War. They did not, however, kill 
 their captives; they released them. But then, the 
 Boers of South Africa had never drunk from the 
 beaker of German Kultur. In the true Prussian 
 spirit the same supreme authority which permits the 
 killing of prisoners also approves of " assassination, 
 
 14 The German War Booh, by J. H. Morgan, p. 74. 
 
376 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 Incendiarism and robbery," to the prejudice of the 
 enemy when committed by " third parties." In 
 other words, keep the rules yourself, if it suits your 
 purpose, but incite other people to break them and 
 you shall be immune — the Junker and the jail-bird 
 in sympathetic collusion. 
 
 There is hardly a rule of war which has not been 
 broken by the German armies, hardly a dictate of 
 honour in war which has not been flouted. The 
 Kriegshrauch itself condemns as utterly dishonour- 
 able certain ruses of war, of which nevertheless the 
 Germans have been guilty; among them is the 
 " feigned surrender in order to kill the enemy 
 who then approaches unsuspiciously." Numerous 
 breaches of this ordinance could be given, but one 
 must suffice. At Moy, near Mons, a squadron of 
 the 1 2th Lancers charged 157 Germans. When 
 close up, the enemy dropped their arms and held up 
 their hands. With much difficulty, for the pace was 
 fast, the Lancers threw up their weapons and man- 
 aged to ride through the enemy's ranks without do- 
 ing injury.^ Before they could pull up the Germans 
 seized their rifles and opened fire on the cavalry, 
 whose backs were still turned, hitting several men, 
 among them the Colonel. It will, doubtless, be 
 satisfactory to the German General Staff that not 
 one of these ruffians survived.^^ 
 
 ^^ In The Times of September 14th, 1914, an artillery officer de- 
 scribes how the Germans " ran into one of our regiments with some 
 of their officers dressed in French uniforms. They said, ' Don't 
 fire, we are French,' and asked for the CO. When he came they 
 shot him dead. . . . The Germans certainly are brutes." " Never 
 again," writes Lieutenant Edgcumbe of the Duke of Cornwall's 
 Light Infantry, " shall I respect the Germans. They have no idea 
 of honour, and there have been many occasions of their wearing 
 French and British uniforms." Lieutenant Edgcumbe spoke from 
 bitter experience, for his own battalion was badly cut up by 
 means of this treacherous device. 
 
PILLAGE AND WORSE 377 
 
 In all this wretched story, perhaps the most revolt- 
 ing, as it is the most significant, feature, is the fact 
 that the ringleaders were the officers. So far from 
 trying to restrain their men, they gave the cue and set 
 the example. " It was like a pack of hounds let 
 loose," wrote Gaston Klein, a soldier of the Land- 
 sturm, when describing the sack of Louvain; " every- 
 one did as he liked. The officers led the way and 
 gave good example." At Baron, two soldiers told 
 the notary, M. Robert, that they were hired by their 
 commanding officer to pillage, and received four 
 marks for every piece of jewellery they brought him. 
 In one district a German soldier brought i franc 
 8 centimes to a nun, and gave it to her for her chari- 
 ties. " I am forced to pillage," he said, " but I am 
 not a robber." 
 
 The Rectors and Professors of twenty-two Ger- 
 man Universities have issued an indignant protest 
 against the charge of barbarity against the German 
 army. They have appealed to the culture of their 
 race ; it is impossible, they declare, that these things 
 can have been done, seeing that their army — 
 
 " Comprises the whole nation from the first to the last 
 man; that it is led by the best of our country's sons." 
 
 Yet, when they have not descended to theft, these 
 gentlemen of Germany, the " best of their coun- 
 try's sons," by wanton destruction, have given a tang 
 to the taste of victory. Not content with living in 
 strangers' houses, drinking their wine and purloining 
 their valuables, they have left these houses wrecked 
 and shamefully defiled. An American gentleman, 
 living in the Department of the Oise, has described 
 his experiences.^^ When the British came they re- 
 spected the American flag, and refrained from enter- 
 ic Z)ai/;j; Telegraph, December 9th, 1914. 
 
378 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 ing the house. Next day the Germans came and re- 
 mained nine days. They began by tearing down the 
 Stars and Stripes, and ended by wrecking the whole 
 place. They smashed the furniture, tore hangings 
 and bed-clothes to rags, and left everything " soaked 
 with blood and filth; they did not leave clothing, 
 shoes, or hats of over ten dollars value, belonging 
 to my wife, myself, and my eight servants." Dresses 
 were slashed with knives, shoes were cut to pieces, 
 the gardens were destroyed, pumps were flung into 
 the river, hundreds of bottles of wine were emptied 
 and strewn about the house and grounds. This was 
 the treatment " of a peaceful American citizen living 
 with his paralysed and bedridden wife in France." 
 The Chateau de Baye was occupied by a General 
 and his Staff Officers, among them a " Highness " ; ^^ 
 and the Chateau de Beaumont had the honour of 
 sheltering Count Waldersee and Major Ledebur. 
 Yet the official French report on the atrocities tells 
 us that these places were pillaged. Desks, strong 
 boxes, and jewel cases were broken open and 
 emptied, and the houses were left unfit for habita- 
 tion. The " noble sons " of modern Germany have 
 followed the policy of Nebuchadnezzar, and have 
 made their enemy's house into dunghills. The sick- 
 ening history of innocent daughters of unwilling hosts 
 of German officers made to wait upon them naked 
 as they ate and drank, and afterwards ravished, will 
 have attention when Germany is called upon to pay 
 the account accumulating against her. Across Eu- 
 rope is written large what Prussianism means. 
 
 The picture of France and Belgium is dreadful 
 enough, but It is doubtful whether the picture of 
 Germany is not even more poignant. Here we see 
 a great nation, justly proud of what it has accom- 
 
 i'' Declared by M. Northomb to be very near the purple. 
 
UNCIVILIZED AGGRESSION 379 
 
 plished, parading insistently its mental and moral ex- 
 cellence, now fallen from its high estate, false to its 
 professions, a traitor to the world, claiming to be 
 Man Civilized and proving to be in war still Beast 
 Uncivilized. Much may be pardoned to ambition 
 and aggression; even wanton aggression loses half 
 its ugliness if the aggressor fights fairly. But ambi- 
 tion and aggression, which break every rule of man ; 
 every law of honour and humanity fettering them; 
 which rely not on valour but on the fear that can 
 be inspired in the helpless — these are the crimes 
 which torment the world into a long and deep re- 
 sentment. 
 
CHAPTER XVIII 
 
 LIGHTS AND LESSONS OF THE WAR 
 
 It would not be reasonable or natural to end this 
 book without a brief survey of certain aspects of the 
 great conflict so far as it has gone. 
 
 This world-war is a purgatorial passage through 
 which mankind is moving into a new existence. 
 Whatever be the end, whoever the victors, the ac- 
 tive, peopled, fighting, organized yet disordered 
 world of our knowing, with its arbitrary boundaries 
 and errant ambitions v/ill never be the same again. 
 Many of the old landmarks, pohtical, social, eco- 
 nomic, will be obliterated. The old lamps will be 
 exchanged for new. After the first bewilderment, 
 when the war-work Is done and over, healthier and 
 saner policies and systems of world-government will 
 emerge from the present traditions and conditions. 
 The new evolution may be swift and sudden, it may 
 be prolonged and gradual; but it is certain that there 
 lies before us the making of new rules of interna- 
 tional conduct, and the recasting and reforging of 
 national policies to march with international responsi- 
 bility, so that its activity may be secured and its will 
 enforced. 
 
 In this there would be nothing extraordinary. 
 The evolution of civilization has not proceeded in an 
 even ratio of continuous growth. It has been 
 marked by long pauses and short sharp paroxysms, 
 vast convulsions followed by advances as impercep- 
 tible as the movements of a glacier. But the novelty 
 of this revolutionary moment is that we are conscious 
 
 380 
 
NEW HORIZONS 381 
 
 of the greatness of the Impending change as men 
 have not been before. The actors and spectators 
 in the decisive scenes of the huge world-drama of 
 the Past never reaHzed the profound effects of their 
 efforts as we are realizing ours. They builded, or 
 destroyed, better than they knew; we, though we 
 may not know precisely what we are building to- 
 wards, are at least conscious of the magnitude of the 
 task and anxious that our designs shall be wise. 
 Wars there have been which blotted out civilizations, 
 but centuries passed before men could measure their 
 importance. In the story of Columbus, we are told 
 that his men saw fires on the shore the night before 
 they set foot on the new land, now the home of 
 millions of our race. Men sat beside these fires un- 
 conscious of what was to befall them; unknowing 
 that within a few hours their slow but sure oblitera- 
 tion would begin, and their control of a continent 
 pass to other hands. We know to-day what the land- 
 ing of Columbus in Hispaniola meant for mankind; 
 but mankind did not know it then, nor for many a 
 generation afterwards. 
 
 We who live now are able to view events in truer 
 perspective than those of older times, and this Is 
 due not to superior Intelligence, but to wider knowl- 
 edge. In a real sense we are all now citizens of the 
 world. With the history of most remote periods 
 opened to us by modern research, by the achieve- 
 ments of science and the use of electricity, we can bet- 
 ter realize the fact that Europe Is now passing 
 through one of the revolutions of progress; that the 
 doors have been flung open on new horizons. 
 
 Most theories of the books and the schools, most 
 judgments of Independent thinkers, have been de- 
 molished by this war. It Intrigues the mind to note 
 that prophecy has been most nearly justified where 
 
382 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 the prophets had the least to guide them, namely, 
 warfare at sea. The devastating effect of shell-fire, 
 the prowess of the submarine, the employment of 
 mines — - these have been displayed in the contest, so 
 far as it has gone, with singular fidelity to forecast. 
 This is probably due to the fact that the factors in 
 the problem were fewer and more susceptible of 
 analysis by the expert. 
 
 It has not been so with the land-war. We all 
 knew that the old methods and measures, that the 
 tactics of Waterloo and the Crimea, were obsolete; 
 that men no longer fired on one another at bow-shot 
 distance ; that the glow and colour, the clash of music 
 and the fluttering of banners had departed from the 
 battlefield. We realized that the modern battle was 
 invested with a certain mysterious invisibility; that 
 men crawled to the attack in scattered lines, dull and 
 inconspicuous, in uniforms scientifically coloured to 
 elude the eye: yet we still imagined great spaces 
 covered by moving hosts, great columns wheeling 
 into position and deploying for the forward move- 
 ment against distant enemies. The South African 
 War taught us so much. We also began to under- 
 stand that modern battles do not necessarily end in 
 a day; that the fate of a nation Is not decided on a 
 Sunday afternoon; that even the three days of the 
 battle of Leipzig might be insufficient to decide the 
 issue. We learned that lesson in Manchuria. We 
 did not grasp, however, the astounding fact that a 
 battle may continue day and night for weeks, and 
 even months, without a decision being reached. It 
 may be doubted whether the War Lords themselves, 
 the men who apply their powerful intellects to the 
 lifelong study of war, really foresaw the develop- 
 ments of the present conflict in Eastern and Western 
 Europe. 
 
IDEAS OF WAR 383 
 
 It was perhaps generally recognized that the 
 armies of to-day must be very large; that they would 
 be enormously greater than any commanded by Marl- 
 borough or Napoleon, than the forces fighting in 
 1870 or in any subsequent wars. Yet one of the 
 ablest of the laymen who wrote of war; one who, 
 more than all others, has predicted the future, and 
 who has to his credit the most accurate forecasts of 
 naval warfare, was emphatic in his view that the 
 mihtary future belonged to small armies scientifically 
 handled. The millions of Russia, France and Ger- 
 many were so much adipose tissue; the military na- 
 tions were giants, shaky at the knees, and destined to 
 be knocked out by some small, scientific, enterpris- 
 ing and active antagonist. Modern weapons and 
 contrivances, he declared, were continually decreas- 
 ing the number of m^n who could be efficiently em- 
 ployed upon any length of front. He doubted if 
 there was any use for more than 400,000 men upon 
 the whole Franco-Belgian frontier, and believed that 
 this number could hold the frontier against any num- 
 ber of assailants. 
 
 This not unpopular theory has been rudely over- 
 thrown. Probably two miUions of men have been 
 fighting night and day since September, 19 14, upon 
 the Franco-Belgian frontier.^ The fact is, no one 
 realized that, under modern conditions, battles would 
 become practically immobile. The main principles 
 of strategy are, no doubt, much the same now as 
 they have ever been, but the tactics which supplement 
 and support the strategy seem to be revolutionized. 
 The 400,000 men on whom Mr. Wells depended to 
 
 1 The forces engaged in some of the most famous battles of the 
 past are as follows: — Lule Burgas, 1912, 400,000; Mukden, 1905, 
 701,000; Sedan, 1870, 244,000; Gravelotte, 1870, 301,000; Sadowa, 
 1866, 436,000; Waterloo, 181 5, 217,000; Leipzig, 181 3, 472,000. 
 
384 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 hold France against the attack of superior force 
 could obviously only do so if they could move swiftly 
 and secretly from one threatened point to another. 
 It was in such manner that Napoleon, in perhaps the 
 greatest of all his campaigns — that of 1 8 14 — kept 
 the alHed armies at bay for many weeks. So far as 
 speed of movement is concerned the armies of to-day 
 have tactical opportunities of which Napoleon never 
 dreamed. When whole army corps can be shifted 
 from Antwerp to Warsaw and back again in a few 
 days, it is a small thing to fling fifty or sixty thou- 
 sand men upon some vulnerable or vital position, 
 say one hundred miles away. 
 
 But the value of military movements now, as al- 
 ways, lies less in their speed than in their secrecy. 
 To deceive one's adversary was the first object of 
 the general; to penetrate the deceptions was the main 
 difficulty of his antagonist. Driving, one day,^ to 
 Strathfieldsaye with a friend, the Duke of Welling- 
 ton amused himself by guessing the nature of the 
 ground lying behind various hills. His friend re- 
 marked on the astonishing accuracy of his predictions, 
 on which the Duke replied, " The art of war consists 
 in knowing what is on the other side of the hill." 
 Napoleon laid it down that correct information was 
 the most important factor in securing victory. In 
 the day of such great War Lords information was 
 not easy to obtain, and commanders had to depend 
 largely on intuition. All that is changed; tactics 
 have been stripped of their mystery. The time- 
 honoured plan of leaving the camp fires burning while 
 the army retired is of no avail against scouting air- 
 craft. Flanking movements — that prime device 
 for achieving victory — are made all but impossible 
 when sky-scouts can discern the movements of men 
 gnd trains, twenty, fifty, a hundred, two hundred 
 
AIRCRAFT AND TACTICS 385 
 
 miles behind the firing line. Turning movements 
 are instantly met by a corresponding transfer of 
 troops to the threatened point. So we saw the 
 Franco-British attempt to turn the German right 
 near Soissons resolve itself into a parallel develop- 
 ment of the opposing lines until they reached the 
 North Sea, where further progress was impossible. 
 Ensues, therefore, the astonishing spectacle of a con- 
 tinuous battle line of several hundred miles, only 
 limited by the fact that geographical and physical 
 reasons prevent further extension. In the Eastern 
 theatre of war the circumstances are much the same, 
 though the length of the front — from the Baltic to 
 the Danube — has given more freedom of move- 
 ment. It would seem that, if the old tactical prin- 
 ciples are to hold good in future wars, continents not 
 countries will be the stage of the operations. 
 
 But this is not the only, or perhaps even the most 
 surprising reversal of our military speculations. We 
 have more or less clearly understood that war had 
 lost some of its pageantry; but we did not realize 
 that it had lost it all. We knew that battles were 
 fought at long range between forces all striving for 
 invisibility; but we still saw in the mind's eye a battle 
 as a vast living picture, lines or masses of men mov- 
 ing here and there slowly or swiftly; batteries whirl- 
 ing into position; commanders on distant hills watch- 
 ing every shift of the gusts of war; mounted orderlies 
 desperately galloping here and there. Battles might 
 not have the glow and colour of old time — that was 
 understood; but they were still to be stirring scenes 
 full of motion, of life, of death. 
 
 How different is the reality! Let us leave the 
 base to visit a modern battlefield, wearing a cap of 
 darkness, since generals are wanting in hospitality 
 for intruding and inquisitive civilians, 
 
386 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 A broad plain teems with life and movement. 
 There are tents and houses over which waves the 
 Red Cross flag; long strings of motor omnibuses and 
 wagons move along the roads; bivouacs are seen 
 whence the smoke of the kitchens eddies upwards; 
 regiments, brigades, divisions crawl along like vast 
 serpents; the sun shines on the lance-points of a 
 cavalry squadron. Along the railways train follows 
 train laden with freight; at the depots are great 
 mountains of hay and straw, and hillocks of boxes 
 branded with the shamrock; uncouth mottled mon- 
 sters go puffing along the line, like a dreadnought on 
 wheels or the grotesque toy of a schoolroom. Here 
 are hangars such as can be seen at Hendon or Brook- 
 lands; outside them mechanics are mending aero- 
 planes, while the aviators stroll about waiting for 
 their turn on duty. Forges are blazing, busy ham- 
 mering goes on in carpenters' shops; and everywhere 
 is the noise and stir of men at work. Yet, save for 
 the hospitals and the soldiers and the armoured 
 trains, and a strange humming in the air, no signs of 
 battle show. It is a scene full of interest — and 
 disappointment. 
 
 Our invisible guide quickens our interest as he mur- 
 murs " Army Headquarters," and we search the 
 neighbourhood to find the place where dwells the 
 man who holds our destiny in his hands. There is 
 a chateau on a neighbouring hill — that must be the 
 place. Not so. Commanders-in-Chief do not select 
 conspicuous dwellings, nor are they anxious to let the 
 world know their address. The headquarters are 
 down in that little town yonder in a small and unpre- 
 tentious house. There are a few motor-cars in front, 
 dingy and weather-beaten, covered with mud and 
 dust; for war is all dust or mud; there is no happy 
 medium. No gorgeous staff lounges about; they are 
 
BEHIND THE FIGHTING LINE 387 
 
 far too busy inside, mostly writing. Through the 
 windows comes the constant tap-tap of typewriters 
 and the jingle of telephone bells. One can see just 
 such a scene any day in a stockbroker's office in Copt- 
 hall Avenue, save that these clerks wear khaki, and 
 that the quiet absorbed man in the inner room is not 
 telephoning orders to buy or sell shares. So much 
 for the pageantry of war. In the actual fighting 
 there is nothing spectacular at all. 
 
 We leave the headquarters and move on, guided 
 always by the dull sounds coming from the firing 
 lines. As we get nearer the sound changes. It is 
 resolved into its component parts — the roar of the 
 heavy guns and howitzers, the sharp crack of the 
 field guns, the irregular pip-pip, pip-pip-pip, of the 
 mitrailleuse, the rifle-fire like the crackling of thorns 
 aflame. Through and above the uproar is the spite- 
 ful zip of the rifle bullets, varying from the crack 
 of a stock-whip to the drowsy drone of a bumble 
 bee; the whine of shrapnel shell and the rending 
 scream of large projectiles. On every side are 
 shapeless ruins which once were houses; columns of 
 smoke rise from stricken cottages; in the air small 
 fleecy clouds of shell-smoke form and disappear; and 
 here and there in the fields spring up masses of 
 smoke, black, green, yellow. It is the battlefield at 
 last. 
 
 Within our range of vision probably fifty thousand 
 men are hurling death at each other, but never a man 
 is to be seen. A few aeroplanes circling overhead 
 are the only signs of life. They seem like vultures 
 scanning a desert In search of food. All our previ- 
 ous ideas of battle as a moving picture are shattered. 
 A rabbit-warren after the firing of a shot Is not more 
 lonely than the space we see. The battlefield Is In- 
 deed a rabbit-warren, for, as we proceed, we find the 
 
388 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 fields scarred with trenches and every trench filled 
 with men. 
 
 So far as a layman may judge, the result, as a 
 whole, has been confusion to all pre-war calculations 
 and expectations. It has for years been an axiom, 
 of ever-increasing acceptance, that the days of hand- 
 to-hand fighting were almost at an end. A recent 
 and admirable little book by a distinguished writer 
 of authority, says that though he cannot altogether 
 accept the theory that the bayonet is now quite super- 
 fluous, he believes it would be true if infantry was 
 always plentifully supplied with ammunition ; if they 
 could always keep their organization intact, would 
 rernain cool, and could never be taken by surprise. 
 This makes a very wide demand for the purpose of 
 establishing a principle. Even in its modified form 
 the theory has already been disproved. Through- 
 out the war the bayonet has played a vital part. It 
 was so even in the first days when the armies were 
 still in constant motion and before the period of en- 
 trenchment had begun. As the campaign developed 
 on settled lines the bayonet showed that it had once 
 more come into its own. 
 
 The very causes which It was thought would make 
 fighting at close quarters impossible in this war have 
 combined to make it necessary. Against modern 
 shell and rifle fire such cover as the surface-ground 
 provides becomes increasingly inadequate. Aero- 
 planes search out the positions and indicate the ranges 
 with deadly precision. Advance in the open Is only 
 possible In very loose formation, and, even If the 
 men get within charging distance, they can bring no 
 weight of numbers to bear upon the enemy. When 
 it is attempted by frontal attacks In close order, by 
 which weight alone can tell sufficiently, the punish- 
 ment is terrific, as German efforts have shown. . 
 
TRIUMPH OF THE BAYONET 389 
 
 Even rifle-fire at the close range of fifty yards is 
 reduced to a minimum. Now and then it may break 
 out in a gusty squall, as when a British soldier kindly 
 tells the neighbouring Germans of the loss of a ship, 
 and is called a liar for his pains; or when some 
 French wags tantalize their hungry foemen by trail- 
 ing sardine tins between the trenches; but the real 
 business is done under the dim stars with the bay- 
 onet and the kukhri and the hand-grenade. It is a 
 revelation to be told of midnight raids by stealthy 
 Gurkhas, of trenches taken and retaken with the cold 
 steel; and to think how often we have been assured 
 that future battles would be decided entirely by sci- 
 entific tactics at long distances. As a fact, science 
 has destroyed tactics; great weapons of precision 
 have in a sense and in certain conditions defeated 
 their own purpose; and there has been a reversion 
 to a more primitive epoch when battles were decided 
 by the stoutness of heart and strength of arms of 
 individual men. 
 
 Time was, not so very long ago, when It was 
 thought that the human element was to be eliminated 
 from war; that men were to be assimilated to the 
 machines which were at once their Instruments and 
 masters; that the soldier would become a marching- 
 machine, a digging-machine, a firing-machine. At 
 this the Prussian militarists aimed; their training 
 made for It; but the system has had the effect of 
 brutalizing the Individual, whose personal freedom 
 and initiative still has Its chance in the aftermath of 
 a fight, when man becomes the machine, bloody, mer- 
 ciless, a monster killing for the sake of killing. 
 
 The German war-makers, so long immured in their 
 laboratories of death, drunken with calculations, 
 must realize at last that their pawns are not made of 
 ivory; that actual battles are not merely scientific 
 
390 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 problems to be worked out by rule, but have their 
 intense, if elusive, psychology. It is a happy thing 
 for us to-day that France and England did not fall 
 into the form of error which has controlled Junker- 
 dom; that some saving grace — perhaps the demo- 
 cratic principle working through our own war-sys- 
 tems — made them realize that the pawns were made 
 of flesh and blood; that they were men and not ma- 
 chines, not mad mastodons of Kultur. 
 
 And such men ! Let it be set down in the credit- 
 balance of this war — so small in discernible good, 
 unless it be found in the stand taken against the 
 obdurate, the malevolent mercenaries who would de- 
 stroy the world's peace for that gain which is got 
 by the sword — that it has restored our faith in the 
 virility of man. Of late years there has been in- 
 deed terribly much to make us doubt it. To all 
 appearance the world had grown over-refined — not 
 with the refinement of high thought and high en- 
 deavour, but with the finesse of being and doing in 
 its more exhausting forms of soft-living; of love of 
 pleasant things; of delicate nerves; of slackness in 
 hard duty; of self-indulgence; of delight in morbid 
 literature, and of a sickly and " precious " Intel- 
 lectuality varied by outbursts of hysteria even more 
 depressing in what It boded. One of Its worst signs 
 was the attitude of many pacifists of the sentimental 
 kind who were more decadent than pacific; who 
 would insist that because England had had no really 
 great war since the beginning of the nineteenth cen- 
 tury, she would have her luck still, and that luck 
 would see us through our time. We were to let 
 things. sHde — the old laissez-allez policy, and all 
 would come right for us. These were not actively 
 anti-national people, but weak wanton folk who are 
 
DECADENCE 391 
 
 the very curse of the democracy of which they think 
 themselves the ornament. 
 
 The Kaiser was keen enough to see the danger of 
 all this kind of thing, and many years ago he set 
 his face against the softer virtues; against the gentler 
 living and feeling which belonged to Southern Ger- 
 many, to the Germany which loved Goethe and 
 Schiller and Lessing; lest the humaneness and kind- 
 liness of it should, with prosperity, become lassitude, 
 natural inertia and " the weak backs of a nation of 
 Werthers." He had his cure — the good old Prus- 
 sian cure; brutality to be called robustness; strong 
 drink to be called naturalness; vice to be called 
 vigour; lasciviousness to be called the body primi- 
 tive; and savagery to be called strength. In his 
 acknowledged* ambition to make Berlin the heart of 
 a " healthy animalism,'* he knew that his Prussian 
 would not disappoint him. He would see his Berlin 
 a capital of Corinthian irregularities and rough, 
 stout, hard, coarse-living humanity; whereby an ex- 
 ample should be set to the rest of Germany which 
 he was Prussianizing in other ways, restoring the 
 ancient reputation of Prussia. Duelling should be 
 kept alive and encouraged, the supremacy of the sol- 
 dier who represented Force should be established 
 socially, civically and nationally; physical dominance 
 should be the set criterion, and the man of the clank- 
 ing heel should be the cynosure of all eyes, the cap- 
 tain of all hearts. William did not labour in vain. 
 He produced his superman, his magnificent blond 
 beast, as Nietzsche had told him to do : and we have 
 seen him at work on his path of frightfulness and 
 ghastly inhumanity. 
 
 Without the aid of such desperate antidotes to the 
 poison of softness, however, the men of the more 
 
392 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 western nations, and the Muscovite also, have 
 emerged from the dangers of a period of too ripe 
 living, cool, calm, virile, unboasting in success and 
 undismayed by failure; laying aside their internal 
 feuds, putting away their luxuries, forgetting their 
 fads, and facing primal realities; men going out to 
 die with a smile, women with tearless eyes bidding 
 them go forth to do their duty. 
 
 So, for England and her allies it was only a veneer 
 of decadence after all. Beneath it lay the old qual- 
 ities which have led mankind up the long slopes of 
 progress, strong, hard, rough if you like, but touched 
 ever by a greatness ojf soul which impelled them to 
 great purposes in the day of trial. Russia has ban- 
 ished vodka, France has prohibited absinthe, Eng- 
 land has prayed her men not in vain to be sober in 
 the field of war; but the trail of the German in this 
 war has been marked by bottles sacked from civilian 
 cellars, while chateaux have been made into bodegas, 
 and cottages into brothels and shebeens. 
 
 There have, of course, been exceptions to the pic- 
 ture here drawn of British men in this day of war. 
 There is the sentimental theorist, living in a universe 
 of his own imagining, unable to recognize the rough 
 facts of the actual world, he who thinks Utopia, like 
 Venus, will rise from a sea of Parliamentary resolu- 
 tions. There is the political Thersites, who grubs 
 for his livelihood in a midden of journalistic gar- 
 bage, whose irresponsibility easily becomes disloy- 
 alty. There is the intellectual mountebank, the su- 
 perman of egotism, who achieves the notoriety, 
 which he mistakes for fame and on which he relies 
 for subsistence, by belitthng every aspiration and 
 deriding every virtue; who expends his ingenious 
 talent in devising new tricks that may serve to keep 
 
THE SCUM ON THE POT 393 
 
 him in the glare of the footlights. There are the 
 slaves of gain who make ignoble profit by supplying 
 the enemy with the means to destroy their fellow- 
 countrymen; there are alas! men who still put their 
 appetites before their duty; there are degenerates 
 here and there who satisfy their patriotism by watch- 
 ing other men doing what they will not do themselves. 
 There is the scum on every pot that boils ; and it is 
 only when it boils that the scum is discovered. 
 
 It is not the least of the things to be set to the 
 credit-balance that we are finding out the real nature 
 of things which, in peace-time, eluded analysis. We 
 are eliminating the dross from the true metal; and 
 we may take heart in seeing how great is the pro- 
 portion of the gold to the dross. Europe to-day 
 bears thousands of scars witnessing to man's brutal- 
 ity, but she exhibits millions of monuments to the 
 majesty of men. Not far back in our memory an 
 ingenious and very able writer declared that modern 
 science was making war impossible. In the terror 
 of modern inventiveness he saw the dawn of uni- 
 versal peace. Militarism was defeating its own 
 ends; there would be no more fighting, because flesh 
 and blood could not endure against the new engines 
 of war. Since M. Bloch wrote, new terrors have 
 sprung from the arsenals. Guns have been invented 
 before which the stoutest fortresses shrivel into fiery 
 dust; shells destroy men in platoons, blow them to 
 pieces, bury them alive ; death pours from the clouds 
 and spouts upward through the sea; motor-power 
 hurls armies of men on points of attack in masses 
 never hitherto employed, concealment is made well- 
 nigh impossible. These things, however, have but 
 made war more difficult and dreadful; they have not 
 made It impossible. They have only succeeded In 
 
394 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 plumbing profounder depths of human courage, and 
 evoking higher qualities of endurance than have ever 
 been seen before. 
 
 The torch of valour has been passed from one 
 brave hand to another down the centuries, to be held 
 to-day by the most valiant in the long line of heroes. 
 Deeds have been done in Europe since August, 19 14, 
 which rival the most stirring feats sung by Homer 
 or Virgil, by the Minnesingers of Germany, by the 
 troubadours of Provence, or told in the Norse sagas 
 or Celtic ballads. No exploit of Ajax or Achilles 
 excels that of the Russian Cossack, wounded in 
 eleven places and slaying as many foes. The trio 
 that held the bridge against Lars Porsena and his 
 cohorts have been equalled by the three men of Bat- 
 tery L, fighting their single gun in the grey and 
 deathly dawn until the enemy's battery was silenced. 
 Private Wilson, who, single-handed, killed seven of 
 the enemy and captured a gun, sold newspapers in 
 private life; but he need not fear comparison with 
 any of his ancient and radiant line. Who that cares 
 for courage can forget that Frenchman, forced to 
 march In front of a German battalion stealing to 
 surprise his countrymen at the bridge of Three Griet- 
 chen, near Ypres. To speak meant death for him- 
 self, to be silent meant death for his comrades; and 
 still the sentry gave no alarm. So he gave it him- 
 self. " Fire ! For the love of God, fire ! " he cried, 
 his soul alive with sacrifice; and so died. The an- 
 cient hero of romance, who gathered to his own heart 
 the lance-heads of the foe that a gap might be made 
 in their phalanx, did no more than that. Nelson 
 conveniently forgot his blind eye at Copenhagen, 
 and even In this he has his followers still. Bombar- 
 dier Havelock was wounded in the thigh by frag- 
 ments of shell. He had his wound dressed at the 
 
THE HEROIC LINE 395 
 
 ambulance and was ordered to hospital. Instead of 
 obeying, he returned to his battery, to be wounded 
 again in the back within five minutes. Once more 
 he was patched up by the doctor and sent to hospital, 
 this time in charge of an orderly. He escaped from 
 his guardian, went back to fight, and was wounded 
 for the third time. Afraid to face the angry sur- 
 geon, he lay all day beside the gun. That night he 
 was reprimanded by his officers — and received the 
 V.C. ! Also there are the airmen, day after day 
 facing appalling dangers in their frail, bullet-torn 
 craft. Was there ever a stouter heart than that of 
 the aviator, wounded to death and still planing down- 
 wards, to be found seated in his place and grasping 
 the controls, stone-dead? Few eyes were dry that 
 read the almost mystic story of that son of France 
 who, struck blind in a storm of fire, still navigated 
 his machine, obedient to the instructions of his mili- 
 tary companion himself mortally wounded by shrap- 
 nel and dying even as earth was reached. 
 
 There is no need to worship the past with a too 
 abject devotion, whatever in the way of glory it has 
 been to us and done for us. Chandos and Du Gues- 
 clin, Leonidas and De Bussy have worthy compeers 
 to-day. Beside them may stand Lance-Corporal 
 O'Leary, the Irish peasant's son. Of his own deed 
 he merely says that he led some men to an Important 
 position, and took it from the Huns, " Killing some 
 of their gunners and taking a few prisoners." His- 
 tory will tell the tale otherwise : how this modest 
 soldier, outstripping his eager comrades, coolly se- 
 lected a machine-gun for attack, and killed the five 
 men tending It before they could slew round; how 
 he then sped onwards alone to another barricade, 
 which he captured, after killing three of the enemy, 
 and making prisoners of two more. Even official- 
 
396 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 ism burst Its bonds for a moment as it records the 
 deed: 
 
 ** Lance-Corporal O'Leary thus practically captured the 
 enemy's position by himself, and prevented the rest of the 
 attacking party from being fired on." 
 
 The epic of Lieutenant Leach and Sergeant Ho- 
 gan, who volunteered to recapture a trench taken by 
 the Germans, after two failures of their comrades, 
 is reading to give one at once a gulp in the throat 
 and a song in the heart. With consummate daring 
 they undertook the venture; with irresistible skill 
 they succeeded; killing eight of the enemy, wounding 
 two, and taking sixteen prisoners. In the words of 
 the veteran of Waterloo, " It was as good fighting 
 as Boney himself would have made a man a gineral 
 for.'^ 
 
 There are isolated Incidents of this kind In every 
 war; but in a thousand different places in France 
 and Belgium the dauntless, nonchalant valour of 
 Irishmen, Englishmen, Scotsmen and Welshmen 
 have shown themselves. Did ever the gay Gordons 
 do a gayer or more gallant thing than was done on 
 the 29th of September, 19 14, on the western front? 
 Thirty gunners of a British field battery had just 
 been killed or wounded. Thirty others were or- 
 dered to take their place. They knew that they 
 were going to certain death, and they went with a 
 cheery " Good-bye, you fellows ! " to their comrades 
 of the reserve. Two minutes later every man had 
 fallen, and another thirty stepped to the front with 
 the same farewell, smoking their cigarettes as they 
 went out to die — like that " very gallant gentle- 
 man," Oates, who went forth from Scott's tent Into 
 the blizzard and Immortality. Englishmen can lift 
 up their heads with pride, human nature can take 
 
EPICS 397 
 
 heart and salute the future with hope, when the 
 Charge of the Five Hundred at Gheluvelt is re- 
 called. There, on the Ypres road to Calais, 2,400 
 British soldiers — Scots Guards, South Wales Bor- 
 derers and the Welsh and Queen's Regiments — 
 held up 24,000 Germans in a position terribly ex- 
 posed. On that glorious and bloody day the Wor- 
 cesters, 500 strong, charged the hordes of Germans, 
 twenty times their number, through the streets of 
 Gheluvelt and up and beyond to the very trenches 
 of the foe; and in the end the ravishers of Belgium, 
 under the stress and storm of their valour, turned 
 and fled. On that day 300 out of 500 of the Wor- 
 cesters failed to answer the Roll Call when the fight 
 was over, and out of 2,400 only 800 lived of all the 
 remnants of regiments engaged; but the road to 
 Calais was blocked against the Huns; and it remains 
 so even to this day. Who shall say that greatness 
 of soul is not the possession of the modern world? 
 Did men die better in the days before the Caesars? 
 
 Not any one branch of the service, not any one 
 class of man alone have done these deeds of valour; 
 but in the splendid democracy of heroism the colonel 
 and the private, the corporal and the lieutenant — 
 one was going to say, have thrown away, but no! 
 — have offered up their lives on the altars of sacri- 
 fice heedless of all save that duty must be done. 
 
 But greater than such deeds, of which there have 
 been inspiring hundreds, is the patient endurance 
 shown by men whose world has narrowed down to 
 that little corner of a great war which they are fight- 
 ing for their country. To fight on night and day in 
 the trenches, under avalanches of murdering metal 
 and storms of rending shrapnel, calls for higher 
 qualities than those short sharp gusts of conflict 
 which in former days were called battles. Then men 
 
398 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 faced death in the open, weapon in hand, cheered by- 
 colour and music and the personal contest, man upon 
 man outright, greatly daring for a few sharp hours. 
 Now all the pageantry is gone; the fight rages with- 
 out ceasing; men must eat and sleep in the line of 
 fire; death and mutilation ravage over them even 
 while they rest. Nerves have given way, men have 
 gone mad under this prolonged strain, and the marvel 
 is that any have borne it; yet they have not only 
 borne it, they have triumphed over it. These have 
 known the exaltation of stripping life of its impedi- 
 menta to do a thing set for them to do; giving up 
 all for an idea. The great obsession is on them; 
 they are swayed and possessed by something greater 
 than themselves; they live in an atmosphere which, 
 breathing, inflames them to the utmost of their being. 
 
 There was a corner in the British lines where men 
 had fought for days until the place was a shambles ; 
 where food could only rarely reach them; where 
 they stood up to their knees in mud and water, where 
 men endured, but where Death was the companion 
 of their fortitude. Yet after a lull in the firing there 
 came from some point in the battered trench the new 
 British battle-cry, "Are we downhearted!" And 
 then, as we are told, one bloodstained spectre feebly 
 raised himself above the broken parapet, shouted 
 " No! " and fell back dead. There spoke a spirit 
 of high endurance, of a shining defiance, of a cour- 
 age which wants no pity, which exults as it wends 
 its way hence. 
 
 We are indeed learning new lessons In human na- 
 ture; and we have needed them. W^e have never 
 fully gauged its illimitable capacity for expansion 
 until now, when we have seen it measured against 
 the giant engines and leviathan forces of modern 
 
THE HIGHEST TEST 399 
 
 war. Stage by stage, as the art of destruction has 
 developed and the perils of warfare have increased, 
 human nature has shown itself able to adapt itself 
 to the new conditions, however staggering the test. 
 M. Bloch argued his case on well-established prem- 
 ises. It had become a military axiom that even the 
 best and most disciplined troops could not be ex- 
 pected to endure more than a certain percentage of 
 slaughter. The Duke of Wellington placed the 
 limit at about thirty per cent.; and that was a high 
 figure compared with the casualties in even the great- 
 est battles of the last two centuries. In the Amer- 
 ican Civil War there were only a few battles where 
 regiments lost as much as seventy per cent, of their 
 strength, and the world was shocked by the slaugh- 
 ter. Such losses have become almost commonplace 
 in this war. There have been stories of German 
 regiments reduced from three thousand men to as 
 many hundreds. Our own losses, of which we can 
 speak with greater certainty, have sometimes been 
 as great: as in the record of a certain British regi- 
 ment which, at Mons, had only eighty men left un- 
 wounded out of one thousand. These eighty men, 
 with some others who were cured of their wounds, 
 were sent to another battalion of the same regiment 
 which itself, later, lost eighty per cent, of its strength. 
 The survivors again became the nucleus of a new 
 battalion, which was fighting in Northern France at 
 the beginning of the year. In it were men who had 
 gone through all the fighting from Mons to the Yser, 
 and whose cool courage fails not yet. One of these 
 men wounded and in hospital said to a friendly en- 
 quirer, " I was at Mongs, I done a bit up along o' 
 Wipers (Ypres) and if it 'adn't bin for this " — he 
 lifted his wounded arm — " I'd a' got over to Liegee 
 
400 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 (Liege) p'r'aps, an' 'ad a look raoundf ^^ O happy 
 warrior, who has so many comrades of his own 
 thinking ! 
 
 The punishment which our regiments stand with- 
 out flinching is amazing, especially if we contrast the 
 personnel of the armies of to-day with those tough 
 customers that fought under Marlborough, Fred- 
 erick the Great or Napoleon; if we consider how 
 much larger a proportion of our soldiers is now re- 
 cruited from the cities. It has long been held that 
 the man of the countryside makes the better soldier, 
 in that he is the most inured to hardship and the 
 least gifted with Imagination — imagination Is held 
 In wide suspicion In the British Isles. Its super- 
 abundant presence In the Celt and the Gaul, though 
 It made for surprising elan when things were going 
 well, was supposed to make those fine fighting men 
 less valuable in moments of trouble and retreat. We 
 were constantly told to look to the patient Moujik 
 or the stolid Turk for proof that lack of education 
 was less hurtful than excess of Imagination. Yet 
 we find the city-bred soldiers of Britain, France, and 
 Germany also, as enduring of hardship and as tena- 
 cious of purpose as the country-bred soldiers of Aus- 
 tria, Russia and Serbia. It Is unfortunately true that 
 excessive centralization In England has reduced the 
 physique of all too great numbers below the military 
 standard; but In those who reach It, there Is not 
 only no sign that capacity for soldiering has grown 
 less, but there Is abundant evidence to show that It 
 Is greater. 
 
 It is no disrespect to other nations to say that the 
 world has never seen anything quite like the Tommy 
 Atkins of to-day, so resourceful, so Intelligent, so 
 careless of danger, so reliable and exact, and withal 
 so good-humoured. Yet not too much must be said 
 
TOMMY ATKINS 401 
 
 in his praise; for, unconscious of any extraordinary 
 merit, he dislikes and distrusts the frontal attack of 
 the eulogist. If you have bouquets to present to 
 him you must approach him on the quarter. Per- 
 sonally he is a modest man, professionally he is the 
 proudest man on earth. Letters of his have been 
 published by the hundred, and they may be read in 
 vain for boastful account of any exploit of his own. 
 He is not reticent, however, when his regiment is 
 mentioned in orders; nor is he backward in express- 
 ing his view that the British army is " a clinker." 
 
 It is not his fellow-countrymen alone who praise 
 the British soldier. He has been extolled in the 
 highest terms by our Allies who fight beside him. A 
 Russian officer speaks of his coolness, his dogged- 
 ness, his constitutional incapacity to submit to defeat. 
 There is good support of this opinion in the official 
 despatches themselves which tell, for instance, of 
 five thousand men holding off a force of over eighty 
 thousand for several days. Through that stubborn 
 valour, acknowledged by ail the world, including the 
 enemy also, runs a vein of gaiety which has made 
 the French describe the British soldiers as " cheerful 
 devils " ; together with a curious unsentimental gen- 
 tleness, the natural product of kindly good-humour 
 and unspoiled nature. 
 
 *' I thought I had a heart of stone," wrote home a 
 soldier, '' but I cried my heart out all night." At 
 what? At the sight of a little girl dying. Yet he 
 had seen hundreds die, had himself slain men without 
 a pang, and could make a dry jest or loosen a shaft 
 of irony in his own naive, primitive way, in appalling 
 scenes of horror. He may have been one of those 
 who roared with laughter when a comrade sat on a 
 shell which exploded and tore his nether garments 
 to ribbons. 
 
402 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 Tommy Atkins is perhaps unique in this, that to 
 him everything is a great game, in other words, a 
 thing of contest and of skilL " This show," he and 
 his officers call some stern and even gruesome battle- 
 piece from which the actors disappear in blood and 
 flame. He feels deeply, but he " takes shame " to 
 show his feelings. He is a patriot, but his patriotism 
 seldom finds vent in words. It was a splendid thing, 
 as those who beheld it have told us, to see a German 
 column, predestined to destruction by its antiquated 
 formation, rolling majestically to attack and singing 
 their great battle-hymn, " Deutschland iiber Alles." 
 Brave battle-songs were sung by the men of North 
 and South in the American Civil War. Tommy At- 
 kins, however, will have none of these ; it savours too 
 much of " Miss Nancy." So he marches to the Hit 
 of " Tipperary," and charges as if going into a foot- 
 ball scrimmage, shouting " Keep your eye on the 
 ball." He is an odd mixture: fierce yet friendly, 
 crafty yet simple; remorseless in action, yet bearing 
 no illwill to his foes. It would be incredible that a 
 British General should try to stir him to action by 
 circulating a " Song of Hate." Were he to do so 
 he would be regarded with an alien eye. Tommy 
 Atkins' shrewd and observant sense Is strangely 
 acute, grimly amusing, and dramatically effective; It 
 Is artless yet full of art. Perhaps the best epitome 
 of modern battle with Its artillery terrors Is to be 
 found In this tense, elliptic description of a wounded 
 fighter; "First you 'ears a 'ell of a noise — and 
 then the nurse says, ' Try and drink a httle o' this ' ! " 
 
 One of the most characteristic bits of humour of 
 the class from which Tommy Atkins and Jack Tar 
 come, is to be found In a letter of a bold and bonny 
 gunner on one of the British warships which fought 
 
PLAYING THE GAME 403 
 
 and sank the German ships at Heligoland. A 
 printed copy of this letter, once in the author's pos- 
 session, has disappeared, but a sentence which is the 
 occasion of the reference is a fixed memory. The 
 sailorman graphically and simply describes the fight, 
 as though making a brief business report; without 
 brag, without mock modesty, and in a spirit of com- 
 fortable satisfaction. After giving the details of 
 the preparations, the fighting, and the rescue of the 
 German sailors; after reporting it all as would a 
 police-court reporter used to gruesome scenes: the 
 ship going down, the struggle of the Germans in the 
 water, shot at by their own officers, he suddenly 
 wound up by saying, " We cleared up what we could 
 see — and back to lunch at one o^ clock! '^ 
 
 Good, gallant, human, well-disciplined Jack Tar, 
 the child of nature, of firm friendly discipline, and 
 of his country; all he wants is a first-class ship and 
 the enemy in front of him, and he stands where Nel- 
 son stood, and does as Nelson did in his own modern 
 way. And how well his officer knows him I They 
 are both of a piece. That officer of one of the ships 
 which sank the Gneisenaii, the Scharnhorst, the Leip- 
 zig and the Nurnberg knew what he was doing when, 
 being told that the enemy was in sight, coolly ordered 
 breakfast for the men and a pipe afterwards; and 
 then opened fire with a " cool-headed lot " upon the 
 foe and sunk him. It Is a companion-piece to the 
 story of the commander's valet who, opening the door 
 of his master's cabin, said, " Enemy ships sighted, 
 sir. Will you have your bath before or after ac- 
 tion? " Are they not pretty pendants to the story of 
 Drake and the game of bowls at Plymouth? 
 
 One of the best portraits lately painted of Tommy 
 Atkins is to be found in a January issue of the West- 
 minster Gazette, It is taken from a letter written 
 
404 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 to his relatives by a young Territorial serving in 
 France. The passage is as graphic in its phrases 
 as it is faithful in observation : 
 
 " They are men^ unpolished in the smootli, self-deception 
 of the would-be-genteel, heavy of hand but big of heart, who 
 do a kindness, and answer thanks with a mild cuss, and who 
 will walk through Hell to help a ' pal ' and curse him for a 
 blank nuisance whilst they do it. Here, if a man makes a 
 mistake, and throws out of gear a convoy, say, the rest of the 
 convoy will inform him in no uncertain manner, what partic- 
 ular brand of idiot he is, his probable parentage and his abso- 
 lutely certain destination after this mortal life, but in the 
 same breath they will get him out of his trouble and put him 
 into line again. Who will laugh at and jeer unmercifully at 
 a man whose horse has thrown him, and whilst they laugh will 
 catch his horse and set him thereon and tell him not to be 
 such a blankety idiot again. In the various grades of life in 
 which I have mingled I have never met this spirit before, and 
 I shall have some painful surprises when peace is declared and 
 I become once more a private citizen." 
 
 Is our soldier of to-day a new product, or is he the 
 same man as his ancestors of the Napoleonic wars 
 and the men who fought at Minden? It is safe to 
 say that in character he is the same; he has only 
 changed in externals. He is, however, more intel- 
 ligent, more alert, perhaps more critical, not to say 
 shyly cynical, almost certainly more gentle. It is 
 doubtful if he could do the ugly work of Badajoz 
 and St. Sebastian; but in all that goes to the making 
 of a man he has shown himself the equal of all his 
 naval ancestors. The historian of the future, when 
 he tells the story of Mons and the Marne, the 
 Yser and the Aisne, will be able to say with Napier, 
 '' And then was seen with what majesty the British 
 soldier fights." 
 
 But when we praise our British soldiers, we re- 
 member also that bravery is not a monopoly of our 
 
GREAT CAPTAINS 405 
 
 own. It has been greatly shown by men of every 
 race In this war, and in a rare degree by the men of 
 those small nationalities hated and despised by mod- 
 ern Germany. Friend and foe, those who have 
 done the wrong and those who are fighting for the 
 right, have proved that the race of men have tough 
 fibre still, holding on to life and the enemy with equal 
 tenacity. 
 
 Great figures too, on the upper levels, have 
 emerged from the fog of war, great generals who 
 will stand beside the famous captains of the past — 
 Joffre and French and the Archduke Nicholas, and 
 one who takes his place in the Valhalla of very per- 
 fect Knights, the King of tortured Belgium, the man 
 who has lost everything save his own indomitable 
 soul. 
 
 One other thing still this war has done which must 
 be passed to the credit-balance. Many of the arti- 
 ficialities of existence have vanished like moving 
 mists; barriers of class have been lowered; the ran- 
 cours of creeds and parties have been laid aside; 
 we are, for the hour, back again in an age when all 
 were for the State. The Jewish Rabbi holds the 
 crucifix to the lips of the dying Christian; Catholic 
 cure and Protestant parson pray side by side above 
 the common open grave; France in her agony turns 
 to the Church, and religion once more ministers to 
 the State. The democratic orator apologizes for his 
 tirades against the idle rich, the rich abjure frivolity, 
 and level down their way of living that they may 
 better help the poor. Old grievances of employer 
 and employed lose their stark Insistence and acute- 
 ness In the knowledge that work to-day Is work for 
 the Motherland. 
 
 It need hardly be said that not all of this can be 
 permanent. When the war Is over, normal life will 
 resume Its ancient course of Individual ambition and 
 
4o6 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 the selfish quest for profit and pleasure ; but a great 
 lesson of selflessness has been taught us, and some 
 of it will find its way into the nation's life for its 
 eternal good. All too soon again, there will come 
 the clash of parties and the jar of interests, and 
 some estrangement of classes too; but the things we 
 are learning will be burned into us who have seen 
 and known them, too deep ever quite to be forgotten; 
 and for many a year, may be, for many a genera- 
 tion, estrangement between the many sections of the 
 one people which we have proved ourselves to be, 
 will be less than it has ever been. We have seen 
 what we have seen, and our world of life and action 
 will never be the same again. 
 
 " O woe is me, to have seen what I have seen, see what 
 I see!" 
 
 Yet a greater work than we have ever done, a 
 bigger thing than we have ever known, lies before 
 the people of this Empire. Reconstruction, rehabili- 
 tation on an enormous scale, and under wholly 
 changed conditions of the national life, will call for 
 all the capacities and activities of which we are 
 capable. It is a great thing to have lived in these 
 days of the giant things ; it will be a greater still, to 
 those of us who are spared, to live on to face the 
 giant tasks of to-morrow. 
 
 Among those tasks for which the British Empire 
 will be immediately responsible is the organization 
 and consolidation of the forces and powers which 
 this war has made manifest throughout the King's 
 Dominions. This struggle has taught the world that 
 the British Empire is a reality; that wherever the 
 Flag flies the spirit of responsibility for the well- 
 being of all exists and manifests itself in the hour of 
 danger as in the days of peace. All the separate 
 
WHEN THE DAY BREAKS 407 
 
 States of the Empire have gathered themselves to- 
 gether for one definite effort and task — the preser- 
 vation of the British position In the world; and the 
 destruction of a military ambition which would, by 
 the sword, over-rule the universe and Impose the 
 policies and Ideals of one country on all the rest. 
 But when this war is over and done, and our task 
 accomplished, there will remain great problems 
 which gravely concern the future activities and pros- 
 perity of the Empire. Being successful, we shall 
 face the fact that vast new territories — probably 
 New Guinea, Samoa, the Marshall Islands, the Cam- 
 eroons, Southwest Africa and East Africa, together 
 with Egypt and Cyprus — may be added to our great 
 colonial dominions. It Is impossible to think that, 
 with the lessons taught us by this war, the experi- 
 ments made, and the experience gained In co-opera- 
 tion for Imperial purposes before the war, the vari- 
 ous national constitutions throughout the Empire will 
 not be brought Into closer relation for a common 
 purpose. 
 
 Among the millions of British men fighting In this 
 war there are hundreds of thousands of soldiers from 
 
 the Oversea Dominions civilians, doing military 
 
 duty In a voluntary spirit, and with an understand- 
 ing of the Immediate great Issue. All of these will 
 have new conceptions of Imperial responsibility, 
 while those who In their home-lands watch their ac- 
 tivities will have learnt the great lesson that organ- 
 ization is absolutely Indispensable, If we are to get 
 the most and the best out of our reciprocal support. 
 But also they will have learnt that we must not again 
 as an Empire face the possibility of a surprise by an 
 ambitious military power seeking to expand itself 
 by the rape of other people's territories. 
 
 The spirit of organization of our vast military and 
 
4o8 THE WORLD IN THE CRUCIBLE 
 
 naval experience which has had ample scope in this 
 war, and has suffered from extemporization — 
 though skilful and wonderful extemporization — 
 will find an opportunity without parallel, as it will 
 face a stern duty such as it has never faced before. 
 That stern duty will be to see that the Empire shall 
 have no *' ramshackle " elements; that it shall have 
 found itself; that its many parts shall be adjusted 
 to fit into a common scheme of defence and com- 
 merce, and of reciprocal commercial development. 
 
 However victoriously Great Britain and the Over- 
 sea Dominions emerge from this war, it will be with 
 the sense of a new and a grave responsibility; for we 
 shall have one quarter of the world, with our Flag 
 planted in every corner of it, and our civilization 
 working in all the seas. We shall be immense in 
 potential force as in actual power; but we shall be 
 faced by financial burdens greater than we have ever 
 known, and those burdens will have to be shared by 
 every individual in our wide-spread communities in 
 one way or the other. For many years some loyal 
 men have laboured to make the individuals of this 
 Empire understand the responsibilities attached to 
 Imperial power. This war has enforced that teach- 
 ing, which, however, has not yet reached and pos- 
 sessed all men everywhere under our flag. The few 
 who taught must now be the many. Also a Spartan 
 spirit must be preached and practised, and men must 
 realize that to acquire wealth merely to enjoy luxury, 
 though it may serve some material interests of the 
 nation, may be in effect unpatriotic, if not anti-na- 
 tional. We shall need to cultivate national economy 
 in its highest sense; we shall require to study more 
 than we have ever done the value of things that mat- 
 ter: but if the individual sees the need and feels the 
 duty the nation will not fail. 
 
APPENDICES 
 I 
 
 CHRONOLOGY OF GERMAN HISTORY AND POLICY 
 SINCE 1862 
 
 I. — FIRST PERIOD 
 
 The formation of the German Empire. 1862-1871 
 
 1862 Bismarck becomes Prussian Minister-President. 
 
 1864 Austria and Prussia make war on Denmark and be- 
 
 come joint rulers of Schleswig, Holstein, and Lauen- 
 burg. 
 
 1866 The Seven Weeks' War between Prussia and Austria. 
 
 Prussian hegemony. 
 
 1867 Foundation of North German Confederation. 
 
 1870-1 Franco-German War, South German States join Prus- 
 sia. 
 
 1871 William, King of Prussia, proclaimed German Em- 
 
 peror at Versailles (Jan. i8th). Bismarck first 
 Chancellor. 
 
 II. — SECOND PERIOD 
 
 Interior organization of Empire and the consolidation of its position 
 as a Great Poiver in Europe. 1871-1890 
 
 1872 League of the Three Emperors (William, Franz- Josef, 
 
 and Alexander II). 
 1879 Alliance with Austria. 
 
 1883 Italy joins this — The Triple Alliance. 
 
 1884 Secret Treaty with Russia (never completely pub- 
 
 lished). 
 
 i888 Death of Emperors William I and Frederick III. Ac- 
 
 cession of William II. 
 
 1890 Bismarck's resignation. 
 
 III. — THIRD PERIOD 
 
 Germany's active policy in promoting ambition to become a Great 
 
 Poiver beyond the bounds of Europe. Roughly since 1890 
 1 1884 Foundation of German S.W. Africa, Togoland, Ger- 
 
 man Cameroons. 
 
 1 The first two entries of Period III belong chronologically to Period II, 
 but philosophically to Period III. 
 
 409 
 
410 APPENDIX I 
 
 1885 Foundation of German E. Africa, German New 
 
 Guinea (Kaiser Wilhelmsland), Bismarck Archipel- 
 ago, 
 
 1890-4 Chancellorship of Von Caprivi: relatively greater im- 
 portance of Emperor. 
 
 1890 Secret Treaty of 1884 with Russia not renewed. 
 
 1894-1900 Chancellorship of Von Hohenlohe. 
 
 1896 Kruger telegram. 
 
 1897 Navy Programme, fixing permanent Navy and placing 
 
 Naval Budget to a great extent out of Reichstag's 
 control. 
 
 1898 Kiao Chou created a German Protectorate. 
 
 1899 Purchase of the Caroline, Marianne, and Pelew Islands 
 
 by Germany from Spain on conclusion of the Span- 
 ish-American War. 
 
 1899-1900 By arrangement with Great Britain and U. S. A., 
 Germany obtains two largest Samoa Islands. 
 [I1899-1902 Boer War.] 
 
 1900-9 Chancellorship of Prince Billow. 
 
 1900 Second Navy Programme, nearly doubling permanent 
 
 Navy. 
 1903-4 Germany seeks entente with Russia — ended by Russo- 
 Japanese War. 
 [1904 Anglo-French Entente.'] 
 
 1905 Kaiser's visit to Tangier. 
 1905-6 Third Navy Programme. 
 
 1906 Conference of Algeciras. 
 [1907 Anglo-Russian Agreement.] 
 
 1908 Fourth NaVy Programme. 
 
 1908-9 Bosnian crisis, ending in annexation of Bosnia and 
 Herzegovina by Austria in spite of Russian protest. 
 
 1909 Bethmann-Hollweg becomes Chancellor. 
 1911 Agadir crisis. 
 
 [1912 . Turkish and Balkan War.] 
 Fifth Navy Programme. 
 1913 Increase of Army (to counterbalance weakening of 
 
 Turkey and to meet requirements of approaching 
 war). 
 
 1 Certain dates bearing only indirectly on German Policy, are enclosed in 
 square brackets. 
 
APPENDIX II 411 
 
 II 
 
 THE HAGUE CONVENTION OF OCTOBER i8th, 1907, 
 SIGNED BY GERMANY, PROVIDES AS FOLLOV^S: 
 
 Art. 2. — The inhabitants of an unoccupied territory, who, on the 
 enemy's approach, rise spontaneously in arms in order to fight the 
 invading troops, without having had time to organize themselves 
 according to Art. i, shall be considered as combatants if they carry 
 their arms openly and respect the laws and uses of war. 
 
 Art. 3. — The armed forces of the contending parties may be com- 
 posed of combatants and non-combatants. In the case of capture 
 by the enemy, both have the right to be treated as prisoners of war. 
 Art. 4. — The prisoners of war are under the power of the gov- 
 ernment of the enemy, but not of the individuals or groups who 
 have taken them. 
 
 They must be treated with humanity. 
 
 Everything belonging to them personally, with the exception of 
 arms, horses, and military papers, remains their own property. 
 
 Art. 22. — The right of the combatants, concerning the ways of 
 injuring the enemy, are not without limits. 
 
 Art. 23. — Besides the prohibitions settled by special conventions, 
 it is particularly forbidden: 
 
 {a) To use poison or poisoned weapons; 
 
 {b) To kill or wound treacherously men belonging to the ad- 
 verse army or nation ; 
 (c) To kill or wound an enemy who, having laid down his 
 arms or having no means of defence, has surrendered un- 
 conditionally ; 
 {d) To declare that no quarter will be given. 
 {e) To use arms, missiles, or material which may cause un- 
 necessary harm; 
 (/) To use unduly the flag of truce, the national flag, or the 
 military badges and uniform of the enemy, as well as the 
 distinctive marks of the Geneva Convention ; 
 {g) To destroy or seize the property of the enemy, except in 
 the cases when that seizure or destruction should be im- 
 periously required by the necessities of war; 
 {h) To declare extinct, suspended or void in law the rights 
 and legal actions of the citizens of the adverse country. 
 It is likewise forbidden to compel the citizens of the adverse party 
 to take a part in the operations of war waged against their own 
 country, even if they had been in the service of the enemy before the 
 beginning of the war. 
 
 Art. 25. — It is forbidden to attack or bombard by any means 
 
412 APPENDIX III 
 
 whatever, towns, villages, houses, or buildings which are unde- 
 fended. 
 
 Art. 27. — In cases of sieges and bombardments, all necessary steps 
 must be taken to spare as much as possible all buildings used for 
 sacred worship, arts, sciences, and public relief; historic buildings, 
 hospitals, places where the wounded and the sick are gathered, 
 provided those buildings are not used at the same time for any 
 military purpose. 
 
 Art. 28. — It is forbidden to pillage a town or place, even after it 
 has been taken by storm. 
 
 Art. 50. — No collective penalty, either as a fine or otherwise, 
 can be required from the populations on account of individual acts, 
 for which they could not be considered responsible as a whole. 
 
 Art. 51. — No tax shall be levied, except according to a written 
 order from a general in command and on his own responsibility. 
 
 It will be collected, as much as possible, according to the rules 
 for the assessment of the existing taxes. 
 
 The tax-payer shall be given a receipt for any money paid. 
 
 Art. 53. — The army occupying a territory shall be allowed to 
 seize only the money, funds, and valuables belonging exclusively to 
 the State, the magazines of arms, means of transport, provisions, 
 and generally all personal property of the State, which can be used 
 for the operations of war. 
 
 Ill 
 
 KUNDMACHUNG 
 
 TRANSLATION OF THE PROCLAMATION WHICH 
 
 APPEARED IN THE TRANSVAAL LEADER ON 
 
 WEDNESDAY, JULY 29TH, 1914. 
 
 German Partial Mobilization: 
 
 Notice 
 
 In Austria-Hungary a partial mobilization . . . has been ordered 
 
 by his Majesty. 
 
 Those liable to service who in consequence of this notification 
 have to appear will be informed by a card summoning them. 
 Those who are summoned will receive travelling expenses. 
 Those who are summoned, and who have not the necessary means 
 for travelling at their disposal, are required in order to obtain 
 travelling expenses to announce themselves at the nearest repre- 
 sentative of his Royal and Imperial Majesty and produce the card 
 summoning them. 
 
 The others will receive travelling expenses as an additional pay- 
 ment to their other expenses. 
 
 Those who are summoned whose dwelling place is nearer the 
 boundary of the monarchy (invasion station) than the office of the 
 
APPENDIX III 413 
 
 nearest representative of his Royal and Imperial Highness are re- 
 quired to go direct to the invasion station. 
 
 E. D 
 
 (illegible) 
 {At the Court and State Printing Works.) 
 
 Kundmachung. 
 
 ^)n Ostcmnch-Un^apn vvurdp''<oii Sftin«r MajeslaJ erne ^ihwase 
 
 aftg-eortlnel. 
 
 i-iirkHD hahen Hfirriefl ,|iicj^on durch ItlinlM^nifungfSkarrpo I'erstandlgL 
 ^i»n EtDbftrafeneB w«rden die R«»?sekost<»n yerjutot 
 Zi»' EH'ol^fj^ de^ KeLs€ko6lftnlK*»trages hahcn &wk Jm» Km- 
 bcrufenen. welehe oi^^h! flber die erforderlichen Hets«;jiitlfl y.»rfi}geiu 
 «nler Vpnvci.f dif^r EinharofuBg^art«* bei der nacbvsfffekj^eiiPii V w. k ' 
 
 fVp flfcfi^<»fi ^iiibftfufcneo tvcrdeo die Rci^kosl«ft nacli d€n 
 bcsTebendpo YergfulungssStiep oschlrSgl.H^h ausbeiaWt. 
 
 E^nberuft'Rtf. dercn 'WobnsiU dftr Moaare&efiT<"we fEinbrach- 
 4tartof»)'nSher jrekigen ist. a!s deai AmtfisHze der tiachsl^lepencn 
 \ n i Verlreiungsbebdrde, haben .<icb direkt id die Erabruchstolion 
 
 Afietet & Su^ «s4 &c!#teMtwi 
 
414 APPENDIX IV 
 
 IV 
 
 STATEMENT BY HERR BALLIN 
 
 While the final proofs of this book were passing through the 
 press, Herr Ballin, the head of the Hamburg-Amerika Steamship 
 Company, and a close friend of the Kaiser, made a statement to 
 Mr. von Wiegand for publication in America. Herr Ballin had 
 just returned from the front, where he had a long audience with 
 the Emperor, whose views of the war he was authorized to make 
 public. Having said that the Kaiser had declared that he did not 
 want this war, Herr Ballin was asked: "Who then does the Em- 
 peror consider responsible for the war?" His reply was as fol- 
 lows: 
 
 " We all feel that this war has been brought about by England. 
 We honestly believe that Sir Edward Grey could have stopped it. 
 " If, on the first day, he had declared ' England refuses to go 
 to war because of the internal questions between Serbia and Aus- 
 tria,' then Russia and France would have found a way to com- 
 promise with Austria. 
 
 " If, on the other hand. Sir Edward Grey had said England 
 was ready to go to war, then, for the sake of Germany, probably 
 Austria might have been more ready to compromise. 
 
 " But, by leaving his attitude uncertain and letting us under- 
 stand that he was not bound to go to war. Sir Edward Grey cer- 
 tainly brought about the war. If he had decided at once, one 
 way or the other. Sir Edward Grey could have avoided this ter- 
 rible thing." 
 
 In August, 1914, Herr Ballin held different views. He wrote a 
 letter to the London Times, dated August 2nd, with the object of 
 having it published on August 3rd, the morning of the day on which 
 Sir Edward Grey was to make his momentous speech in the House 
 of Commons. The Times held the letter back. Late on the night 
 of August 3rd The Times, by accident, received a telegram ad- 
 dressed to the London agent of the Wolff Press Bureau, the Ger- 
 man official telegraph agency. It ran thus : " Times is publishing 
 Ballin's statement on the situation. Please telegraph it word for 
 word (signed) Wolff Bureau." 
 
 In that statement, published in The Times of August 12th, Herr 
 Ballin lays the responsibility for the war, not on England, but on 
 Russia. 
 
 " Everything has been wrecked upon the attitude of Russia. 
 ... It must be stated again; Russia alone forces the war upon 
 Europe. Russia alone must carry the full weight of responsi- 
 bility." 
 
 The conflict between these statements is, therefore, singularly 
 impressive. On one day it is Russia, on the next it is England 
 which is accused of having caused the war. Both cannot be true. 
 The conscience of Germany must be uneasy when, to demonstrate 
 her innocence, she makes two charges of guilt which are mutually 
 destructive. 
 
 For the full text of Herr Ballin's statement to Mr. von Wiegand 
 see the New York World, April 14th, 1915. See also London 
 Times, August 12th, 1914 and April 15th, 1915. 
 
INDEX 
 
 Aerschot, 74, 159, 325, 357, 359, 
 
 372- 
 Agadir, 132, 182, 186. 
 Agram, 153, 304. 
 Aguila, 354. 
 Aircraft in War, 386-8. 
 Albania, 134, 303, 305. 
 Albert, King of the Belgians, 
 
 197, 220, 228, 242, 405. 
 Alexander the Great, 3. 
 Algeciras, 14, 182. 
 Algeria, 280. 
 All-German League, 61. 
 Allize, M., 193. 
 Alsace-Lorraine, 2, 7, 17, 25, 53, 
 
 91-3, 311. 
 
 Alva, 45, 316, 
 
 American Civil War, 316, 320, 399. 
 
 Amiral Ganteaume, 352. 
 
 Andenne, 357, 365. 
 
 Andrejanoff, von, 69. 
 
 Angeberg, Count d', Le Congres 
 de Vienne et les Traites de 
 1815, 20, 21. 
 
 Antwerp, 247, 371. 
 
 Arabia, 301. 
 
 Armies, numbers In, 383. 
 
 Army and Navy Register, 107. 
 
 Arras, 347. 
 
 Asquith, H. H., 216, 255, 258. 
 
 Astiirias, hospital ship, 348, 355. 
 
 Athens, 199. 
 
 Atlantic, Emperor of, 133. 
 
 Atrocity, systematic and orga- 
 nized, 342-79. 
 
 Attila, 44, 45, 330, 343. 
 
 Augustenburg, 93. 
 
 Australia, 90, 137, 356. 
 
 Austria, 6, 14-16, 20, 21, 25, 82, 
 93, 102, 134, 143-58, 162, 179, 
 181, 187, 190-228, 230, 231, 
 238, 247, 282, 289, 298-309, 
 312, 400. 
 
 Ayme, M., 43. 
 
 Bagdad Railway, the, 129, 130, 
 
 i8i, 301. 
 Balkan Question, the, 291-313. 
 Barnardiston, Colonel, 270-2. 
 Barnum, Phineas T., 54. 
 Baron, 377. 
 Battery L, 394. 
 Battles, numbers of combatants 
 
 in, 383. 
 Bavaria, 193. 
 Bayonet, the, 388, 389. 
 Bazaine, Marshal, 124. 
 Bedier, Professor, Les Crimes 
 
 Allemands d'apres des te- 
 
 moignages allemands, 355. 
 Beethoven, 69. 
 Belgium, 20, 21, 71, 73, 78, 82, 
 
 91, 109, no, 134, 156, 159, 
 
 179, 197, 230, 236, 238-40, 241, 
 
 244-76, 301, 310, 311, 312, 325- 
 
 26, 327, 333, 358. 
 Belgium's neutrality, 244-77, 327- 
 Belgrade, 149, 154, 190, 196, 198, 
 
 222, 303, 307. 
 Belliaud, General, 331. 
 Below, Herr von, 261, 263. 
 Berchtold, Count von, 210. 
 Berlin, 15, 51, 87, 91, 96, 100, 
 
 127, 142, 14J, 183, 190, 192, 
 
 196, 200, 207, 213, 221, 225, 
 
 232-4, 295, 358, 391. 
 
 Bernhardi, General von, i, 8, 22, 
 23, 71, 77, 85, 97, 108, 125, 172. 
 
 Bernhardi, Germany and the 
 Next War, 1, 72, 82, 84, 89, 
 94, 96, io8, no. III, 170. 
 
 Bethmann-Hollweg, Dr. von, 41, 
 48, 74, 82, 132, 158, 179, 183, 
 194, 197, 210, 211, 213, 215, 
 219-21, 229, 238, 251, 252, 
 257-63, 264-70. 
 
 Bleberstein, Baron Marschall 
 von, 346, 350, 352. 
 
 Bielefeld, 43. 
 
 41S 
 
4i6 
 
 INDEX 
 
 Bismarck, Prince von, 8, lo, 15- 
 17, 19, 21, 24, 25, 27, 29, 36-41, 
 46, 47, 56, 58, 87-88, 91, 93, 
 98, 109, 120, 121, 126-9, 168, 
 179, 217, 273, 280, 295, 308, 
 358, 366, 367. 
 
 Bismarck, Prince von, Reftec- 
 tions and Reminiscences, no. 
 
 Bloch, M., 393, 399. 
 
 Blucher, 322. 
 
 Bluntschli, Professor, 345. 
 
 Bode, Dr., 78. 
 
 Boehn, General von, 360, 372, 
 
 374: 
 Bolivia, 94, 106, 115. 
 Bosnia, 91, 143, 151, 153, i8i, 
 
 189, 191, 294, 296, 299, 304. 
 Botha, General, 14. 
 Bourdon, M., The German Enif^- 
 
 ma, 235. 
 Brazil, 94, 106, 114, 115. 
 Bremen, 45. 
 Bright, John, 256. 
 British Colonies, how acquired, 
 
 161-5. 
 Buchanan, Sir George, 198. 
 Bucharest, 199. 
 Bulgaria, 91, 102, 134, 146, 294- 
 
 6, 303, 305. 
 Billow, Prince von, 2, 7, 8, 25-7, 
 
 48, 128, 131, 147, 155, 169, 
 
 170, 176, 182, 186, 285, 330, 
 
 340, 364. 
 
 Billow, Imperial Germany, 7, 8, 
 23, 24, 27, 28, 72, 88, H2, 129, 
 182, 183. 
 
 Bunsen, Sir Maurice de, 204. 
 
 Busse, Dr. A., in North Amer- 
 ican Reme<ixi, u8. 
 
 Bynkershoek, von, 318. 
 
 Caillaux, M., 135. 
 
 Cairo, 75, 287. 
 
 Calais, i86. 
 
 Calmette, M., 135. 
 
 Calwer, Richard, in Sozialistiche 
 
 Monafsheftf 113. 
 Cambon, Jules, 193, 220, 225-7, 
 
 231, 232, 238, 253, 
 
 Campbell - Bannerman, Sir 
 
 Henry, 175, 176. 
 Cameroons, i6i, 407. 
 Canada, 120, 137, 138, 163, 311, 
 
 356- ^ 
 Caprivi, Count, 15, 48, 129. 
 Carlyle, Thomas, 58, 145. 
 Chaka, 343. 
 Charlemagne, 3, 29. 
 Charleroi, 357. 
 
 Charles, King of Roumania, 294. 
 Charles I, 37. 
 Charles II, 163. 
 Charles V, 108. 
 Cherbuliez, M., 37. 
 China, 45, 80, 114, 286, 321. 
 Chinese War (1900), 334. 
 Chinot, Abbe, 369. 
 Chirol, Sir Valentine, 38. 
 Christiania, 186. 
 Churchill, Winston S., 185. 
 Civilization of Warfare, 314-41. 
 Clarendon, Lord, 254. 
 Clausewitz, Karl von, 61, 346, 
 
 358. 
 Clive, 163. 
 Coblenz, 53. 
 Colbert, J. B., 41. 
 Cologne, 343. 
 Congo, the, 186. 
 Conrad, Georg, 69. 
 Constantinople, 208, 251, 282, 
 
 286, 287, 289, 295. 
 Cramb, Professor, 18. 
 Crackanthorpe, Mr., 198. 
 Croatia, 151, 153, 189, 304. 
 Croismare, 360. 
 Cyprus, 407. 
 
 Daily Chronicle, 131. 
 
 Daily Telegraph, 14, 107. 
 
 Damascus, 130. 
 
 Danish War (1864), 332, 339. 
 
 Dar-es-Salaam, 130. 
 
 Davis, Richard Harding, in 
 
 Scribner's Magazine, 369. 
 Dawson, W. H., The Evolution 
 
 of Modern Germany, 113, 335. 
 Decadence, 390-2. 
 
INDEX 
 
 417 
 
 Delbriick, Professor, 72, 97-100. 
 Denmark, 15, 25, 82, 91, 93, 119, 
 
 166, 171, 242, 245. 
 Derby, Lord, 254. 
 Dernburg, Herr, 71-3, 77, 102, 1 69. 
 Dewey, Admiral, 120. 
 Diedrichs, Admiral, 120. 
 Dillon, Dr., 146, 193. 
 Dinant, 74, 159, 325, 357, 361-2, 
 
 368, 372- 
 Disfurth, Major-General, 80. 
 Dix, Herr, Deutschland auf den 
 
 Hochstrassen des JVeltnvirt- 
 
 schajteverkehrSy 119. 
 Djavid Bey, 289. 
 Drink Question, the, 392. 
 Ducarne, General, 270-2. 
 Dreikaiserbund, The, 127. 
 Duplix, 163-4. 
 
 Eberlein, First Lieutenant, 373. 
 Edgcumbe, Lieutenant, 376. 
 Edward VII, 178. 
 Egypt, 132, 1^8, 280, 281, 287, 
 
 301, 407. 
 Ehrlich, 78. 
 Eisenhart, Dr., 124. 
 Eitel, Fritz, Prince, 372. 
 Eliot, Dr., 71. 
 Elst, Baron van der, 261. 
 Eras, 25. 
 
 Enver Pasha, 284, 287, 289. 
 Eyschen, M., 264. 
 " Fabricius," see Fortnightly Re- 
 
 'vieiv. 
 
 Falaba, 354. 
 
 Ferdinand, Archduke, see Franz 
 Ferdinand. 
 
 Fermo, 354. 
 
 Fichte, J. G., 63. 
 
 Fischer, Kuno, Hegel, 81. 
 
 Flanders, 328. 
 
 Fletcher, C. R. L., 77. 
 
 Forbender, General von, 373. 
 
 Forgach, Count, 154, 155, 
 
 Fortnightly Re'vieiv, 115, 120. 
 
 Fox, Frank, in Nineteenth Cen- 
 tury, 370, 371. 
 
 France, 7, 13, 16, 20, 21, 27, 31, 
 
 ■ 33, 34, 51, 61, 74, 82, 85, 90, 
 
 92, 93, 99, loi, 102, 106, 109, 
 
 no, 124, 126-9, 132, 134-6, 
 
 141, 142, 145, 149, 156, 158, 
 
 159, 162-4, 170, 179, 179-3, 
 186, 187, 192, 198-200, 202, 
 214-16, 218-20, 223-8, 231, 232, 
 237-242, 246, 247, 252-4, 257- 
 68, 270-5, 279, 283, 284, 296, 
 326, 328. 
 
 Francis- Joseph, 45, 134, 189. 
 Franco-German War, 320, 333. 
 Frankel, Mrs., 364. 
 Franz - Ferdinand, Archduke, 
 141, 143-144, 148, 149, 155-6, 
 
 160, 190, 192, 229, 306, 307, 308. 
 Frederick (Barbarossa), 4, 29. 
 Frederick the Great, 16, 21, 36, 
 
 37, 57, 58, 75, 92, 93, 163, 217, 
 
 265, 318, 400. 
 Frederick III, 128. 
 Frederick William I, 36. 
 Frederick William IV, 16, 18, 
 
 19, 37. 
 French, Genl. Sir John, 405. 
 Friedjung, Dr., 153, 154, 189. 
 Fuchs, Dr., 336. 
 Fulda, 69. 
 
 Gallenga, Mr., 339. 
 
 Geffcken, Professor, 249, 273. 
 
 Geneva Convention, 315, 319, 343. 
 
 Genghis Khan, 5. 
 
 George III of England, 18. 
 
 George, D. Lloyd, 182. 
 
 German culture, 58-64, 94-7. 
 
 German organization, 59-60. 
 
 German Societies in the United 
 States, 116, 117. 
 
 German War-Book, 68, 69, 328, 
 344- 
 
 " Germania Triumphans," see 
 Ruckblick auf die iveltge- 
 schichtlichen Ereifnisse der 
 Jahrs 1900-15, 'von einem 
 Grossdeutschen. 
 
 Germany, an absolute mon- 
 archy, 33-55. 
 
4i8 
 
 INDEX 
 
 Germany, its colonial ambitions, 
 97-104. 
 
 Germany, its European expan- 
 sion, 87-96. 
 
 Germany, its national character, 
 1-32. 
 
 Germany, its self-consciousness, 
 56. 
 
 Gheluvelt, 397. 
 
 Gibraltar, 162. 
 
 Giesl, Baron von, 150. 
 
 Giolitti, Signor, 156-8, 226. 
 
 Gladstone, W. E., 242, 245, 247, 
 256, 257, 259, 271, 294. 
 
 Gneisenau, Graf von, 59. 
 
 Gneisenau, 403. 
 
 Goeben, General von, 333. 
 
 Goethe, 8, 69, 125, 145, 337. 
 
 Goltz, Field-Marshal von der, 
 61, 79, 85, 345, 364. 
 
 Goluchowski, Count, 14. 
 
 Gomery, 349. 
 
 Gordons, the, 396. 
 
 Goschen, Sir Edward, 132, 158, 
 20I, 210, 219, 224, 227, 228, 
 238, 251, 252, 257, 274. 
 
 Great Britain, 2, 7, 12-14, 31, 33, 
 43, 45, 51, 61, 69, 72, 78, 85, 
 88, 90, 92, 97, 99-106, 110-13, 
 116, 117, 120, 123, 124, 126, 
 127, 132, 135, 136-41, 146, 149, 
 156, 158-88, 194-206, 210-24, 
 229-47, 251-62, 265-72, 275, 
 279, 283, 286, 287, 297, 298, 
 312. 
 
 Greece, 91, 134, 293, 296, 303, 
 305- 
 
 Grey, Sir Edward, 144, 145, 158, 
 178, 182, 192, 194-208, 211-24, 
 229, 231-2, 236-43, 245, 247, 
 252-4, 257, 258, 269, 290, 312. 
 
 Griscom, Mr., 15. 
 
 Gronau, Duke of, 372. 
 
 Gronow, Captain, 331, 332. 
 
 Grotius, 248, 317. 
 
 Gue-d'Hossus, 359. 
 
 Haeckel, E. H., 78. 
 
 Hague Conference, 11, no, 315, 
 
 319, 322, 323, 324, 327, 328, 
 343, 346, 347, 350, 351, 3S3» 
 364, 367, 373- 
 
 Halby, 69. 
 
 Haldane, Lord, 183. 
 
 Halil Bey, 289. 
 
 Hamburg, 228. 
 
 Hamburger Nachrichten, 80, 120. 
 
 Hamilton, Sir Ian, 321. 
 
 Hanonville, 374. 
 
 Harden, Maximilian, 76, 71, 186. 
 
 Harden, Maximilian Monarchs 
 and Men, 47. 
 
 Hardenburg, Prince von, 59. 
 
 Hardinge, Lord, 138. 
 
 Harnack, A., 78. 
 
 Hartmann, 79. 
 
 Hauptmann, G., 65, 68, 69, 78. 
 
 Havelock, Bombardier, 394. 
 
 Havre, 348, 352. 
 
 Hawaii, 103. 
 
 Headlam, Dr. J. W., England, 
 Germany and Europe, in. 
 
 Headlam, Dr. J. W., in Histor- 
 ical Re'vieiv, 28, 62. 
 
 Heeringen, Herr von, 263. 
 
 Hegel, 85. 
 
 Heidelberg, 343. 
 
 Heine, H., 69. 
 
 Henry II of England, 5. 
 
 Henry III of England, 5. 
 
 Henry V of England, 5, 30, 316. 
 
 Henry, Prince of Prussia, 49. 
 
 Heroism, deeds of, 394-8. 
 
 Herzegovina, 91, 143, 151, 153, 
 181, 294, 296, 304. 
 
 Hill, Dr. David Jayne, 15. 
 
 Hindenburg, General von, 337. 
 
 Hogan, Sergeant, 396. 
 
 Hohenlohe, Prince von, 48, 53, 
 67. 
 
 Holland, 91, loo, 101, 113, 162-4, 
 214, 242, 245-7, 249, 258, 259, 
 301, 310, 351. 
 
 Holzendorif, Handbook of Inter- 
 national LaiD, 250, 346. 
 
 Huy, 357. 
 
 Icaria, 352. 
 
INDEX 
 
 419 
 
 India, 78, 138, 162-4, 230, 288, 
 
 301, 311- 
 International Law, 317-21. 
 Ireland, 140, 142. 
 Italy, 7, 27, 51, 133, 145, 149, 
 
 156, i57> 192, 198, 200, 211, 
 
 212, 220, 226, 298, 299, 301, 
 320. 
 
 Jagow, Herr von, 193, 196, 197, 
 200, .224-8, 252, 264, 273, 274. 
 
 Jahrbuch fur Deutschlands See- 
 inter ess en, 121. 
 
 Japan, no. 
 
 Java, 165. 
 
 Jemappes, 363, 364. 
 
 Jerusalem, 132. 
 
 Joffre, General, 405. 
 
 John, King of England, 316. 
 
 Kane, Captain, 121. 
 
 Kant, Immanuel, 57, 63. 
 
 Khalifa, The, 45. 
 
 Kiao Chou, 114, 169. 
 
 Kitchener, Lord, 138. 
 
 Kladderadatsch, 233. 
 
 Klein, Gaston, 377. 
 
 Klemt, Under-Officer, 374. 
 
 Kblnische Zeitung, 330. 
 
 Konigsberg, 44. 
 
 Kordofan, 287. 
 
 Kretzer, 69. 
 
 Kriegsbrauch, 322-8, 345-7, 350, 
 
 367, 373, 376. 
 Kruger, President, 13, 132, 169. 
 Kuhlmann, Baron, 239. 
 
 Lasson, Professor, 342. 
 
 Law, A. Bonar, 56. 
 
 Lawrence, T. J., International 
 Problems and Hague Confer- 
 ence, 322. 
 
 Leach, Lieutenant, 396. 
 
 Ledebur, Major, 378. 
 
 Leipzig, 403. ^ 
 
 Lichnowski, Prince, 194, 200, 202, 
 212-15, 237, 238, 252. 
 
 Liebnitz, 319. 
 
 Liege, 357, 370. 
 
 Lille, 97. 
 
 Lincoln, Abraham, 243. 
 
 Lizst, 78. 
 
 Lobengula, 343. 
 
 Lokal-Anzeiger, 199. 
 
 Lotze, 79. 
 
 Louis XIV, 41, 108, 162. 
 
 Louvain, 74, 78, 97, 160, 325, 
 343, 358, 368, 370, 377. 
 
 Low, Sidney, in Quarterly Ke- 
 rnel, 62. 
 
 Liider, Professor, 345. 
 
 Luneville, 373. 
 
 Luther, M., 84. 
 
 Luxemburg, 73, 74, 228, 231, 254, 
 264, 265, 327. 
 
 Macchio, Baron, 198. 
 
 McElray, Professor Robt., 18. 
 
 Machiavelli, 317. 
 
 McKinley, President, 121. 
 
 Mahan, Admiral A. T., The In- 
 terest of America in Interna- 
 tional Conditions, 106. 
 
 Mahdi, The, 45. 
 
 Malines, 160, 325, 357, 368, 371. 
 
 Mallet, Sir Louis, 251, 283, 286, 
 287. 
 
 Manchuria, 382. 
 
 Manila, 105, 116. 
 
 Maria Theresa, 16. 
 
 Marching songs, 402. 
 
 Mariscal, Senor, 105. 
 
 Marlborough, Duke of, 318, 383, 
 400. 
 
 Marshall Islands, 162, 407. 
 
 Maubeuge, 274. 
 
 Maximilian of Mexico, 123, 124. 
 
 Maxwell, Sir Herbert, 332. 
 
 Mazarin, Cardinal, 41. 
 
 Mensdorif, Count Albert, 150, 
 194-195, 238. 
 
 Mercier, Cardinal, i6o, 357. 
 
 Mesopotamia, 130, 147. 
 
 Metternich, 299, 308. 
 
 Mexico, 123, 124. 
 
 Milton, John, Paradise Lost, 74. 
 
 Moltke, Count von, 17, 23, 29, 58, 
 
 345. 
 Moltke, General von, 227, 228. 
 Mommsen, History of Rome, 341. 
 
420 
 
 INDEX 
 
 Monroe, Doctrine, the, 99, loa, 
 
 105-25. 
 Monroe, President, 123. 
 Mons, 399. 
 Montenegro, 152, 294, 295, 299, 
 
 304- 
 Morgan, Professor J. H., 68, 69, 
 
 327- 
 Morier, Sir Robert, 273. 
 Morocco, 114, 132, 147, 182, 183, 
 
 226, 230, 280. 
 Moy, 376. 
 
 Muffling, General, 332. 
 Mugge, M. A., 67. 
 Mullah, The Mad, 45. 
 Mumm, Baron, 102. 
 Munich, 193, 273. 
 Munsterburg, Professor, 107. 
 
 Namur, 357. 
 
 Napoleon I, 3, 8, 19, 20, 56, 69, 
 79, 92, 108, 164, 259, 310, 318, 
 383, 384, 400. 
 
 Napoleon III, 124, 320. 
 
 " Nauticus," see Jahrbuch fiir 
 Deutschlands Seeinteressen. 
 
 Navy League, 61, 172. 
 
 Nation, The, 176. 
 
 Nelson, Lord, 394, 403. 
 
 Nemours, 334. 
 
 Neue Freie Presse, 190. 
 
 Neues Pester Journal, 190. 
 
 Newfoundland, 162. 
 
 New Guinea, 90, 99, i6i, 165, 407. 
 
 New York, 11, 12. 
 
 Ne^ York Times, 71, 354. 
 
 Nicher, General von, 366. 
 
 Nicholas, Archduke, 405. 
 
 Nicholas, Tsar, 45, 50, 199, 221. 
 
 Nietzsche, F., 42, 61 -70^ 77, 79, 
 84, 85, 89, 218, 391. 
 
 Nietzsche, F., The Joyful Wis- 
 dom, III. 
 
 Nogent-le-Roi, 334. 
 
 Northomb, M., in Re'vue des deux 
 Mondes, 355, 359, 378. 
 
 Nova Scotia, 162, 163. 
 
 NUrnberg, 403. 
 
 Odessa, 257, 289. 
 
 O'Leary, Lance-Corporal, 395, 
 
 396. 
 Oliphant, Laurence, 333, 339. 
 Oman's History of England, 30. 
 Ostwald, Professor, 366. 
 Otto the Great, 3. 
 Outlook, New York, 18. 
 
 Pacifism,, growth of in Great 
 Britain, 165-88. 
 
 Panama Canal, 119, 122. 
 
 Pan-Germanische Blatter, 77. 
 
 Paris, 193, 199, 236. 
 
 Paris, Declaration of, 319. 
 
 Peace, Great Britain's endeav- 
 ours for, 174-88. 
 
 Persia, 7, 21, 132, 230, 301. 
 
 Petit Bleu, he, 268. 
 
 Philip II, 108, 310. 
 
 Pitt, William, 258. 
 
 Poland, 2, 19, 91, 92, 109, 222, 
 302, 328. 
 
 Portugal, 94, 113, 161-3, 166, 205. 
 
 Potsdam, 214, 219. 
 
 Powell, Mr., in Neiv York Her' 
 aid, 371, 372. 
 
 Preussicher Jahrbuch, 97. 
 
 Princip, 189, 190. 
 
 Prizren, 153. 
 
 Prochaska, Consul, 153, 189. 
 
 Prempeh, King, 343. 
 
 Prussia, 4, 6, 16, 18-21, 25-8, 
 36-8, 40, 46, 48, 49, 52, 57-9, 
 63, 75, 78, 81, 87, 89, 90, 92-5, 
 163, 227, 247, 266, 283, 285, 
 298, 301, 302, 306, 320. 
 
 Puffendorf, 319. 
 
 Quarterly Revieiv, 36, 37, 38, 62, 
 75, 82, 83. 
 
 Ranke, L. von. History of the 
 Popes, 250. 
 
 Red Cross, 324, 337, 348, 350, 
 386. 
 
 Rehberg, Count, 37. 
 
 Reich, Emil, Germany's Mad- 
 ness, 109, 115. 
 
 Reichstag, The, 35-7, 48, 51, 73, 
 
INDEX 
 
 421 
 
 126, 181, 184, 227, 251, 260-3, 
 
 335- 
 
 Reventlow, Count, 85, 172, 235, 
 342. 
 
 Rheims, 97, 343, 347, 365, 368, 
 369- 
 
 Richard I of England, 5, 316. 
 
 Richter, J. P., 54. 
 
 Robert, M., 377. 
 
 Roberts, Lord, 139. 
 
 Rodd, .Sir Rennell, 208. 
 
 Rome, 156, 208, 212. 
 
 Rontgen, 78. 
 
 Roon, Count von, 24, 59, 234. 
 
 Ross, Captain, 363. 
 
 Rouen, 333. 
 
 Roumania, 91, 134, 146, 294-6, 
 299. 
 
 Ruckblick auf die nveltgeschicht- 
 lichen Ereifnisse der Jahrs 
 1900-15 'von einem Gross- 
 deutschen, 124. 
 
 Rumbold, Sir Horace, 194, 197, 
 200. 
 
 Ruskin, John, Fors ClamgerUi 
 330. 
 
 Russia, 13, 14, 21, 31, 33, 34, 42, 
 45, 50, 99, 100, 106, 112, 123, 
 126-8, 133-6, 141, 143, 144, 
 146, 148, 149, 153, 156, 158, 
 159, 166, 170, 178-82, 187, 192, 
 194-204, 208-10, 212-16, 218, 
 219, 222-29, 231-234, 237, 238, 
 354, 257, 260, 273, 283, 284, 
 288, 289, 293, 295, 298-300, 
 302, 304-6, 400. 
 
 Russo-Japanese War, 320, 321. 
 
 Sadowa, 15, 25, 93. 
 
 St. Petersburg, 198-9, 222. 
 
 St. Petersburg, Declaration of, 
 
 319- 
 Samoa, 99, 103, 121, 165, 171, 
 
 407. 
 San Giuliano, Marquis di, 156, 
 
 157, 212. 
 Sazonoff, M., 158, 199, 200, 215, 
 
 223, 236, 290. 
 Scarborough, 251, 324, 348, 
 Scharnhorst, G. J. D. von, 59. 
 
 Scharnhorst, 403. 
 Schebeko, Count, 192. 
 Schiller, 125. 
 Schleswig-Holstein, 2, 15, 91-3, 
 
 311- 
 Schmoller, Herr, The Policy of 
 
 Commerce and Force, 115. 
 Schoen, Herr von, 193. 
 Schopenhauer, A., 69. 
 Sedan, 25. 
 Senlis, 74, 325. 
 Serajevo, 1, 141, 142, 151, 155, 
 
 192, 197, 292, 307, 308. 
 Serbia, 91, 102, 134, 143-57, 189- 
 
 192, 194-9, 203-30, 282, 293-6, 
 
 300, 303-7, 400. 
 Shaw, G. B., 244. 
 Shaw, Stanley, JVilliam of Ger- 
 many, 43. 
 Silesia, 2, i6, 19, 91, 109, 163. 
 Sheringham, 251. 
 Soissons, 385. 
 Soldiers, characteristics of our, 
 
 401-5. 
 Sondeburg, 333. 
 South Africa, 14, 132, 137, 138, 
 
 165, 196, 311. 
 South African War, 320, 321, 
 
 375, 382. 
 Southey, Robert, 331. 
 Spain, 100, loi, 119, 161, 162. 
 Spee, Admiral, 285. 
 Stein, H. F. K., 59. 
 Stendhal, 69. 
 Stenger, General, 375. 
 Stowell, Lord, 319. 
 Strassburg, 333. 
 Suarez, Francisco, 317. 
 Sudermann, H,, 69, 78. 
 Suez Canal, 289, 297. 
 Swakopmund, 130. 
 Swinemunde, 14. 
 Switzerland, 91, 244, 259, 310. 
 Syria, 301. 
 Szaparay, Count, 149. 
 
 Taft, President, 111. 
 Tamerlane, 343. 
 Tamines, 357, 360, 361. 
 
422 
 
 INDEX 
 
 Termonde, 74, 325, 357, 371. 
 
 Tewfik Pasha, 290. 
 
 Thirty Years' War, the, 316-18, 
 
 330. 
 Tilly, Count von, 45, 318. 
 Times, The, 190, 376. 
 Tirpitz, Admiral von, 168-9, 
 
 170, 337. 
 Tisza, Count, 191. 
 Togoland, 161. 
 Tokomaru, 352. 
 Tournai, 357. 
 
 Transport in modern warfare, 
 386, 387. 
 
 Treitschke, H. von, 22, 28, 61, 
 62, 68-70, 73, 77, 78, 81, 85, 
 89, 96-7, 108-9, 125, 128, 137, 
 
 171, 218, 248. 
 
 Triple Alliance, The, 127, 156, 
 
 178, 192. 
 Truth about Germany, The, 148, 
 
 155, 234. 
 Tschirscky, Herr von, 193, 194, 
 
 204, 223. 
 Turkey, 22, 91, 102, 133, 134, 
 
 278-90, 292-7, 299, 301, 302, 
 
 304, 305. 
 
 United States, 2, 10, 12, 15, 51, 
 57, 69, 85, 94, 99, 102, 105-24, 
 148, 163, 167, 170, 171, 251, 
 257, 356. 
 
 Vattel, 318. 
 
 Vanilla, 354. 
 
 Venezuela, 99, 106, 114, 132. 
 
 Vickers, K. H., in Oman's His- 
 tory of England, 30. 
 
 Vienna, 20, 149, 154, 190-8, 201, 
 221-3, 238. 
 
 Vilvorde, 350. 
 
 Vise, 74, 325. 
 
 Wagner, R., 69. 
 Waldersee, Count, 378. 
 Wall Street Journal, The, 70. 
 Wallenstein, 318. 
 Waltershausen, Professor, Deut- 
 schland und die Handelspoli- 
 
 tik der Fereinis[ten Staaten 
 von Amerika, 119. 
 
 War, the immediate causes of, 
 119-2^8. 
 
 Warsaw, 244. 
 
 Waterloo, 250. 
 
 Wavre, 366. 
 
 Wellington, Duke of, 250, 332, 
 342, 384, 399. 
 
 Wells, H. G., 383. 
 
 Welton, Corporal C, 338. 
 
 Westminster Gazette, 403. 
 
 Whitby, 251, 324, 348. 
 
 Whitman, Sidney, 67, 338. 
 
 Whitney, W. C, 105. 
 
 Wilbrandt, Adolph, 340. 
 
 Will to Power, 56, 65, 66, 137. 
 
 William I, German Emperor, 
 16, 19, 25, 29, 53, 128. 
 
 William II, German Emperor, 
 3, 13-19, 33-54, 56, 60, 6i, 67, 
 69, 70, 80, 8i, 85, 87, 88, 91, 
 93, 96, 97, 99, loi, 102, 108-9, 
 114, 126, 128, 130, 132, 133^ 
 147, 168, 170-2, 175-6, 181, 183, 
 184, 193, 197, 200-4, 213, 215, 
 219-21, 224, 228, 250, 259, 310, 
 317, 342, 367, 391- 
 
 William III of England, 161, 
 162, 318. 
 
 Wilson, General James H., 334. 
 
 Wilson, Private, 394. 
 
 Wintzer, Dr. W., Germany and 
 the Future of Tropical Amer- 
 ica, 121, 122. 
 
 Witte, Emil, 115, 116. 
 
 Wolfe, General, 163. 
 
 Wolff, Herr K. F., 77. 
 
 Wolff, Professor, Das deutsche 
 Reich und das Weltmarket, 
 112. 
 
 Wolff's Bureau, 207. 
 
 Wurtemburg, Duke of, 358, 374. 
 
 Yarmouth, 251, 348. 
 
 Yorck von Wartenburg, Count, 
 
 79, 82. 
 Ypres, 347, 357, 368, 394, 397. 
 
 Zouche, 319. 
 
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