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Bureau of Mines Information Circular/1987 
 
 The Impact of Advanced Materials 
 On Conventional Nonfuel Mineral 
 Markets: Selected Forecasts 
 for 1990-2000 
 
 By Ronald F. Balazik and Barry W. Klein 
 
 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR 
 

Information Circular 9150 
 
 ii 
 
 The Impact of Advanced Materials 
 On Conventional Nonfuel Mineral 
 Markets: Selected Forecasts 
 for 1990-2000 
 
 By Ronald F. Balazik and Barry W. Klein 
 
 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR 
 Donald Paul Hodel, Secretary 
 
 BUREAU OF MINES 
 
 David S. Brown, Acting Director 
 
As the Nation's principal conservation agency, the Department of the Interior has 
 responsibility for most of our nationally owned public lands and natural resources. 
 This includes fostering the wisest use of our land and water resources, protecting our 
 fish and wildlife, preserving the environment and cultural values of our national parks 
 and historical places, and providing for the enjoyment of life through outdoor 
 recreation. The Department assesses our energy and mineral resources and works to 
 assure that their development is in the best interests of all our people. The 
 Department also has a major responsibility for American Indian reservation 
 communities and for people who live in island territories under U.S. administration. 
 
 M 
 no. <\\so 
 
 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data 
 
 Balazik, Ronald F. . 
 
 The impact of advanced materials on conventional nonfuel mineral 
 markets. 
 
 (Information circular; 9150) 
 
 Bibliography: p. 15 
 
 Supt. of Docs, no.: I 28.27: 9150 
 
 1. Nonfuel minerals industry — United States — Forecasting. 2. Aluminum industry and 
 trade — United States — Forecasting. 3. Steel industry and trade — United States — 
 Forecasting. 4. Glass trade — United States — Forecasting. 5. Plastics industry and 
 trade — United States — Forecasting. 6. Ceramic industries — United States — Forecasting. 
 7. Substitution (Technology)— Forecasting. I. Klein, Barry W. II. Title. III. Series: 
 Information circular (United States. Bureau of Mines); 9150. 
 
 TN295.U4 [HD9506.U62] 622 s [338.4'0973] 87-600233 
 
 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office 
 Washington, DC 20402 
 
CONTENTS 
 
 in 
 
 Page 
 
 Abstract 1 
 
 Introduction 2 
 
 Objective of study 2 
 
 Study methodology 2 
 
 Acknowledgments 3 
 
 Industry analyses and forecasts 3 
 
 Motor vehicle manufacturing 3 
 
 Plastics 3 
 
 Ceramics • 5 
 
 Forecast computations 5 
 
 Aerospace industry 5 
 
 Aircraft composites versus automotive 
 
 composites 6 
 
 Costs of composites and metal in aircraft .... 6 
 
 Advantages of composites 6 
 
 Use of composites in airframe 6 
 
 Use of composites and ceramics in jet engines 7 
 
 Highest performance composites 8 
 
 Forecast computations 8 
 
 Page 
 
 Building and construction 8 
 
 Discussion 8 
 
 Forecast computations 9 
 
 Pipe and conduit 9 
 
 Siding 9 
 
 Windows 10 
 
 Packaging industry 10 
 
 Metal cans 10 
 
 Bottles 11 
 
 Flexible packaging 11 
 
 Drums 11 
 
 Substitution among different types of 
 
 packaging 11 
 
 New developments 11 
 
 Forecast computations 11 
 
 Heavy machinery and equipment production ... 12 
 
 Summary and conclusions 13 
 
 Substitution forecasts 13 
 
 Conditions influencing substitution 14 
 
 References 15 
 
 Appendix. — Definitions and background discussion 
 
 of polymers and advanced ceramics 17 
 
 TABLES 
 
 Page 
 
 1. Substitution by plastics in U.S. motor vehicle manufacturing: 1985, 1990, and 2000 4 
 
 2. Substitution by plastics in the U.S. construction industry: 1985, 1990, and 1995 9 
 
 3. Summary of identified substitution by advanced plastic materials in five major U.S. industries 13 
 
 A-l. Major U.S. markets with significant competition between plastics and metals or glass, 1985 17 
 
 A-2. Projected U.S. shipments of advanced ceramics, by end use 18 
 
IV 
 
 
 UNIT OF MEASURE ABBREVIATIONS USED IN THIS REPORT 
 
 ft 
 
 foot 
 
 MMst 
 
 million short tons 
 
 ft 2 
 
 square foot 
 
 MM$ 
 
 million dollars 
 
 gal 
 
 gallon 
 
 MMlb 
 
 million pounds 
 
 h 
 
 hour 
 
 Mst 
 
 thousand short tons 
 
 in 
 
 inch 
 
 oz 
 
 ounce 
 
 L 
 
 liter 
 
 pet 
 
 percent 
 
 lb 
 
 pound 
 
 pct/yr 
 
 percent per year 
 
 lb/ft 
 
 pound per foot 
 
 St 
 
 short ton 
 
 min 
 
 minute 
 
 yr 
 
 year 
 
THE IMPACT OF ADVANCED MATERIALS ON CONVENTIONAL NONFUEL 
 MINERAL MARKETS: SELECTED FORECASTS FOR 1990-2000 
 
 By Ronald F. Balazik 1 and Barry W. Klein 2 
 
 ABSTRACT 
 
 The introduction of "high-tech" materials such as new polymer composites 
 presents significant competitive challenges and opportunities in conventional mineral 
 markets. Moreover, rapid advances in materials science are critical to the resolution of 
 important economic and strategic issues, including national competitiveness and 
 import dependence. This Bureau of Mines study examines the displacement of 
 conventional nonfuel mineral materials by certain new materials, specifically 
 advanced plastics and ceramics. Analyses of substitution by plastics are conducted for 
 five major U.S. industrial sectors: motor vehicle manufacturing, aerospace applica- 
 tions, building and construction, packaging, and heavy machinery production. Based 
 on interviews with more than 60 scientists, executives, and other professionals 
 engaged in materials development and sales, forecasts of substitution by plastics 
 during the 1990's are made for aluminum, steel, and glass. In addition to these 
 forecasts, study findings identify key factors that will influence the emergence of 
 advanced materials in the next decade. 
 
 'Minerals specialist. 
 
 Economist. 
 
 Division of Minerals Policy and Analysis, Bureau of Mines, Washington, DC. 
 
INTRODUCTION 
 
 The United States is facing dramatic changes in 
 materials development and use. New "high-tech" mate- 
 rials, such as advanced plastics and ceramics, 3 are 
 winning markets that traditionally have been dominated 
 by conventional nonfuel mineral materials, particularly 
 metals and glass. This competition presents unique 
 challenges and opportunities for the nonfuel minerals 
 industry as well as implications for national materials 
 policy. 
 
 The past decade has been quite extraordinary for 
 materials science. Advanced computers, powerful mathe- 
 matical models, and more precise analytical tools have 
 enabled scientists to examine and control properties of 
 materials as never before. Moreover, stringent design and 
 performance requirements by manufacturers of sophisti- 
 cated products in highly competitive world markets have 
 driven greater demands for new, improved materials. A 
 1986 review (41)* stated- 
 Some of the mining industry's metal develop- 
 ment associations have recognised this 
 change but they receive little support from 
 the industry itself. It is up to the miner/ 
 refiner to test and confirm that a particular 
 metal and/or alloy is the right material for 
 an application. If the mining industry is to 
 succeed in the next decade, it is essential 
 that 'we recognise that we are in the 
 "materials business." 
 
 Growth of the knowledge and information sector has 
 combined with technological change to enhance materials 
 science far beyond its status of just a few years ago (61). 
 
 Traditionally, materials needs have been met by 
 adapting existing natural substances. Now, entirely new 
 synthetic materials are created by rebuilding, their 
 molecular structures. The creation of new materials 
 atom-by-atom is a significant departure from the conven- 
 tional sequence of extraction, purification, and combina- 
 tion. 
 
 In summary, modern materials science is characte- 
 rized by three features that distinguish it from the past. 
 First, new materials are being developed at a more rapid 
 pace; technology and competitive pressures are accelerat- 
 ing the substitution process. Second, by working at the 
 molecular level, scientists now can create new materials 
 for specific properties and uses rather than modifying 
 existing materials; parts are redesigned and manufactur- 
 ing processes are changed to accommodate the new 
 material. Third, materials development now requires a 
 much wider range of expertise and scientific knowledge; 
 plant design engineers and assembly line specialists must 
 work with materials scientists to reduce total product 
 costs. 
 
 These developments in materials science have led to 
 the advent of remarkable new substances that are 
 challenging standard materials in many of the latter's 
 traditional markets. Conventional nonfuel mineral mate- 
 rials, especially metals, are bearing the brunt of competi- 
 tion from several advanced materials, particularly rein- 
 forced plastics and optical fiber. Light and durable plastics 
 
 3 See appendix for definitions and background descriptions of the specific 
 advanced materials examined in this report. 
 
 4 Italic numbers in parentheses refer to items in the list of references 
 preceding the appendix. 
 
 and polymer composites are substituting for metals and 
 glass in the motor vehicle, aerospace, and packaging 
 industries. Optical fiber may one day supplant copper as 
 the premier medium used in telecommunications, and 
 electrically conductive plastics now under development 
 eventually may displace metal wire in electronic circuits 
 (20). In addition, advanced ceramics are being developed 
 for high-temperature environments that previously were 
 the sole domain of metal alloys. The impact of such 
 developments will grow substantially over the next 
 decade. 
 
 Despite the broad challenge from new materials, 
 examination of their competitiveness with nonfuel miner- 
 als to date has been limited to several studies focused on a 
 few individual commodities or industry sectors. Among 
 the most prominent of these studies are Department of 
 Commerce assessments of the advanced ceramics, fiber 
 optics, and polymer composite industries (65-67); howev- 
 er, except for the competition between optical fiber and 
 copper, these government studies are not concerned with 
 effects on conventional mineral-based materials. 
 
 OBJECTIVE OF STUDY 
 
 This study has a twofold objective. First, this report is 
 intended to forecast the substitution of conventional 
 metals and glass by new plastic materials in major U.S. 
 industrial sectors during the 1990's. Second, this report 
 identifies key factors expected to influence the emergence 
 of advanced materials in new markets over the next 
 decade. The substitution of aluminum, steel, and glass by 
 plastics is forecast for domestic motor vehicle manufactur- 
 ing, aerospace applications, building and construction, 
 packaging, and heavy machinery and equipment produc- 
 tion. In addition, the impact of advanced ceramics on 
 metal demand in the motor vehicle and aerospace sectors 
 is examined. 
 
 STUDY METHODOLOGY 
 
 Much of the information in this report is based on 
 interviews with more than 60 scientists and officials in 
 industry and Government that have direct knowledge of 
 new materials development and marketing. The inter- 
 views encompassed corporate and Government profession- 
 als ranging from high-level executives and research 
 directors to laboratory personnel, engineers, information 
 specialists, marketing analysts, plant chiefs, distributors, 
 retailers, and trade association representatives. The 
 private sector interviews covered new materials producers 
 and companies operating in markets that consume large 
 amounts of nonfuel mineral materials (e.g., automobile 
 manufacturing, construction, aerospace industries^. Gov- 
 ernment interviews included staff members of Federal 
 agencies in the Department of Defense, Department of 
 Commerce, and Department of Energy. Detailed notes 
 documenting all of the interviews are on file with the 
 authors. 
 
 The interviews, supplemented by a literature search. 
 were used to forecast trends in substitution during the 
 1990's and the year 2000. Forecasts were made for the 
 entire plastics industry and for five major industrial 
 
sectors: motor vehicle manufacturing, aerospace, building 
 and construction, packaging, and heavy machinery 
 production. 
 
 Interviews, rather than a review of the literature, are 
 the basis of this study for two reasons: First, the 
 interviews provided more information on factors affecting 
 market trends and future relationships between new 
 materials and their competitors. Second, the interviews 
 provided information on the latest developments in 
 materials innovation and market entry that had not yet 
 appeared in the literature. Thus, interviews were viewed 
 by the authors as the better method for eliciting the most 
 current and appropriate information needed for this 
 report. 
 
 Essentially, the interviews for this study were 
 designed to (1) identify trends in new materials develop- 
 ment or substitution, and (2) determine what factors 
 influenced these trends. An average of 12 informed 
 sources were interviewed for each of the 5 industrial 
 sectors cited above. The judgment of these sources 
 regarding both trends and influencing factors were 
 discussed with them and compared with those of their 
 peers. Interviewees were questioned about any differences 
 beetween their forecasts and others. Where differences 
 could not be reconciled or a consensus was not achieved, a 
 forecast range is presented. 
 
 Except where indicated otherwise, the forecasts 
 herein are intended to show only the minimum amounts of 
 nonfuel minerals expected to be replaced by new 
 materials. The estimates of substitution are conservative 
 because (1) data were not available for calculating 
 replacement in all markets where new materials are 
 competing, (2) when there was uncertainty about what 
 materials were competing (e.g., plastics against wood or 
 steel in furniture), the market in question was not 
 forecast, (3) conservative substitution rates were deliber- 
 ately used in calculating trends to offset any excessive 
 claims by new materials producers, and (4) new, more 
 competitive materials are being developed at a pace which 
 may exceed that of improvements in conventional 
 materials. More details on substitution calculations are 
 provided for each industry in the "Industry Analyses and 
 Forecasts" section. 
 
 One caveat must be made regarding the interview 
 methodology: the opinions expressed by the interviewees 
 represent their personal, subjective assessments of current 
 and future events. Nevertheless, their judgments were the 
 considered views of professionals with many years of 
 experience and responsibility in materials design and 
 marketing. Moreover, the authors have tried to present 
 the rationale given for forecasts and have attempted to 
 show the full range of different projections obtained from 
 the interviews. Thus, readers can judge for themselves the 
 plausibility of the projections presented. 
 
 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 
 
 The authors wish to thank the many industry and 
 Government professionals cited in this report for their 
 valuable information used to develop substitution fore- 
 casts. In particular, the authors would like to extend their 
 appreciation to several Bureau of Mines employees 
 including Frederick Schottman, physical scientist, Divi- 
 sion of Ferrous Metals, Washington, DC (steel estimates); 
 Louis Sousa, economist, Division of Minerals Policy and 
 Analysis, Washington, DC (materials technology assess- 
 ment); and Murray Schwartz, Manager of Materials 
 Research, Division of Materials and Recycling Technolo- 
 gy, Washington, DC (advanced ceramics forecast evalua- 
 tions). 
 
 The authors also wish to acknowledge the assistance 
 of several individuals who provided valuable technical 
 
 data for particular materials and industries. These 
 persons include Jerry Fanucci (aerospace materials), R. 
 Nathan Katz (advanced ceramics), and Jerome Persh 
 (aerospace industry); these Department of Defense mate- 
 rials engineering personnel are located respectively at the 
 Army Natick Laboratory, Natick, MA; the Army Mate- 
 rials Technology Laboratory, Watertown, MA; and the 
 Office of Research and Engineering, the Pentagon. In 
 addition, the authors also wish to thank David Cole, 
 assistant professor, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, 
 MI, for his assistance on motor vehicle forecasting, and 
 Roy Sjoberg, materials manager, Chrysler Corp., Detroit, 
 MI, for his assessment of composite materials in auto- 
 mobiles. 
 
 INDUSTRY ANALYSES AND FORECASTS 
 
 This section contains separate analyses of substitu- 
 tion by plastics in five major U.S. industrial sectors: motor 
 vehicle manufacturing, aerospace applications, building 
 and construction, packaging, and heavy machinery and 
 equipment production. The analyses include substitution 
 forecasts and discuss conditions that will influence this 
 substitution in the 1990's. 
 
 MOTOR VEHICLE MANUFACTURING 
 Plastics 
 
 Car and truck manufacturing represents the largest 
 potential domestic market for high-performance plastics 
 because the industry produces a great number of motor 
 
vehicles 5 that could incorporate sizable quantities of these 
 materials. Approximately 10 million U.S. automobiles 
 and trucks are expected to be built in 1990 (8). Thus even 
 a small increase in plastics used per car or truck 
 translates into a large total increase in plastics consumed 
 by the motor vehicle industry. 
 
 Table 1 indicates the amount of plastics substituting 
 for steel in the manufacture of U.S. automobiles during 
 1985 and forecasts displacement of steel by plastics for 
 motor vehicle production in 1990 and 2000. These forecast 
 quantities are based on interviews and documents that 
 project the level of car and truck production, the average 
 weight of the vehicles, and the share of each vehicle 
 accounted for by plastics and steel. Note that "downsizing" 
 of vehicles accounts for some of the declines shown for 
 steel but does not appear significant enough to cause all of 
 the decrease. This is compatible with interview comments 
 that plastics will replace metals for many uses in the 
 domestic motor vehicle industry. 
 
 Table 1.— Substitution by plastics in U.S. motor vehicle 
 manufacturing: 1985, 1990, and 2000' 
 
 Vehicle type 
 
 Steel displaced by plastics, MMst 
 
 1985 
 
 1990 
 
 2000 
 
 Automobiles and vans . . 
 
 Compact and light pickup 
 
 trucks 
 
 1.3 1.6-2.2 2.5-7.1 
 
 NA .18 .23 
 
 NA Not available. 
 
 'See "Forecast computations" section for calculations used to derive these 
 data. 
 
 Plastics use grew significantly in U.S. motor vehicle 
 manufacturing during the past 10 yr ¥ but further growth 
 will not be dramatic until the 1990's. This is consistent 
 with auto industry officials' forecasts that plastic outer 
 body panels or "skins" for cars will not be used in 
 significant quantities until the early 1990's. Currently 
 only GM's Pontiac Fiero and Chevrolet Corvette have 
 plastic (fiberglass) skins, and both of these are low- 
 production-model cars. In 1989, several GM cars are 
 expected to have plastic fenders, rocker panels, and grille 
 opening panels, i.e., partially plastic skins (28). Plastic 
 have the advantage of lighter weight and superior 
 corrosion resistance, which even two-sided galvanized 
 steel may not match in performance. 
 
 Use of additional plastics under the hood (some 
 plastics are already being used for such parts as radiator 
 headers and master hydraulic cylinder reservoirs) is 
 expected to trail their use for outer body panels for several 
 reasons. To design and manufacture firewalls, floor pans, 
 and sidewalls with plastics rather than metal requires 
 composite materials that have high-temperature resist- 
 ance, low flammability, etc. These relatively expensive 
 materials are closer to aircraft composites than to car skin 
 composites in both performance and cost. Plastics manu- 
 facturers (Du Pont, General Electric, Celanese) must 
 reduce costs before composites can replace metal in 
 under-the-hood, high-temperature applications. In addi- 
 tion to high costs, the threat of liability lawsuits from 
 using "plastic parts", perceived as inferior by much of the 
 public, has been an impediment more difficult to overcome 
 than some of the technical performance problems faced. 
 (As will be discussed below, this liability-lawsuit threat 
 has also been a serious obstacle to increased composites 
 use in aircraft, especially passenger airliners.) 
 
 5 The term, "motor vehicles," in this report refers to automobiles, vans, 
 and light (pickup) trucks; "automobiles," as used here, includes vans. 
 
 Excluding the engine block, which will remain 
 predominantly metal into the 21st century, 6 the frame and 
 other structural parts area is probably the last area where 
 plastics will substitute for metal. Not only are expensive 
 composites (closer to aircraft composites in performance 
 and cost) needed for strength, but there is a major problem 
 to be solved in joining plastic (composite) frame parts 
 together. Currently the only chassis parts made of 
 composites are graphite-epoxy leaf springs in the Chev- 
 rolet Corvette. However, fiber-reinforced plastic wheels, 
 which are 20 percent lighter than aluminum wheels, are 
 now being marketed (19). Although two graphite- 
 reinforced drive shafts are being tested on vehicles 
 experimentally, metal drive shafts are expected to be used 
 for many years. 
 
 The following factors will affect the amount of plastics 
 used per car: 
 
 1 . The costs of both the plastics and the steel that they 
 replace, and in addition the cost of other materials, such as 
 aluminum and magnesium, that compete with plastics in 
 replacing steel. — For outer body panels, galvanized sheet 
 steel is $0.44 per pound and composites are $1.20 to $1.50 
 per pound. 
 
 2. The cost of designing and manufacturing plastic car 
 parts versus steel, aluminum, or in a few cases, magnesium 
 carports. — Determining this cost involves several interre- 
 lated considerations. Tooling costs are considerably 
 higher for producing metal parts than plastic parts. 
 However, this higher initial cost can be offset given a 
 sufficiently long production run, since the metal parts 
 production rate may be 16 times faster than the plastic 
 (fiberglass) parts production rate (500 metal parts versus 
 30 plastic parts per hour). Thus 1 million units of one 
 fender type (long production run) favors metals, whereas 
 250,000 favors plastics. The break-even point in metal 
 versus plastic car part costs reportedly is 300,000 to 
 500,000 units (but closer to 500,000) of one part type. In 
 addition, although low production runs increase overhead 
 per part, plastic parts reduce overall labor costs and/or 
 assembly time because several (and in some cases many) 
 metal parts often can be replaced by one integrated plastic 
 part. Given these factors, one car company official said 
 that if the plastic part production rate can be doubled to 60 
 parts per hour, plastics can be competitive with steel 
 despite being much more expensive than steel. The 
 deciding variable may then be the length of the production 
 run, and the expected trend toward shorter production 
 runs for many car models would favor plastics. Needless to 
 say, steel companies are aware of the serious threat 
 plastics pose in the automotive market, and the steel 
 industry is making more capital investment in electrolytic 
 galvanized high-strength steel production in response to 
 this competition (31). 
 
 3. The prices of oil and gasoline. — Higher oil and 
 gasoline prices would increase demand for, and lead to 
 increased production of, lighter weight, more fuel-efficient 
 cars that contain additional weight-saving plastics. 
 However, this trend would be partly offset by higher 
 plastics prices, reflecting higher oil-based plastic feed- 
 stock prices. 
 
 4. The ability of plastics to meet high-performance 
 requirements (high-temperature resistance andor high 
 strength) for under-the-hood and frame parts, which is a 
 safety issue as well. 
 
 5. Changing consumer tastes and preferences. 
 
 s However. Amoco and Polimotor are testing a plastic Y6 engine with 
 metal lining the pistons and other high-wear surfaces U9>. 
 
6. The economic feasibility of recycling automotive 
 plastics. — The inability to recycle plastics profitably could 
 seriously restrict their use in motor vehicles since millions 
 of "junk" autos in need of recycling are generated each 
 year. 
 
 A few additional comments about plastics use in cars 
 should be made. First, additional plastics use in cars will 
 coincide with the introduction of new car models, where 
 retooling would be necessary in any case, even if the parts 
 continued to be made of metal. Second, as a materials 
 research scientist specializing in composites stated, 
 thermoplastics, as opposed to thermosetting composites 
 (see the appendix definitions), may represent the only 
 serious competition to metals in cars because the 
 composites production rate is too slow for automobile 
 production rates. This is consistent with the above 
 statement by an auto industry official that if the plastic 
 part production rate were doubled, then plastics would be 
 competitive with steel. Third, car company officials 
 express some concern that, unlike steel, which represents 
 a secure source of raw material for motor vehicles, 
 plastics, being oil-based, are vulnerable to oil shortages, 
 such as occurred in the 1970's when the U.S. was more 
 dependent on OPEC oil. 
 
 In conclusion, the wide forecast range for substitution 
 by plastics in the 1990's within the motor vehicle industry 
 (table 1) reflects uncertainties regarding the interaction of 
 all the complex factors described above. 
 
 Ceramics 
 
 The thermal strength and hardness properties of 
 advanced ceramics have given these materials significant 
 potential for application in car and truck engines. 
 However, ceramic coatings and parts are just beginning to 
 be introduced by the motor vehicle industry and will not 
 seriously compete with conventional materials in this 
 sector for a decade or more. 
 
 The most near-term uses likely for advanced ceramics 
 are items such as turbocharger rotors, piston rings and 
 pistons, cylinder liners, and small stationary parts {65). 
 Coatings and smaller parts will be introduced first. 
 Currently, the Nissan 300 ZX has engineering ceramics in 
 the turbocharger (55), and Isuzu has small engine 
 components containing ceramics. Wear-resistant ceramic 
 seals in engine water pumps are already widely used on a 
 commercial scale. The U.S. Army is testing a Cummins 
 diesel engine truck that has a ceramic-insulated cast iron 
 (engine) block. Kyocera Corp. of Japan has built a 
 prototype diesel engine with ceramic pistons, cylinders, 
 and heads; it is claimed that the engine, which needs no 
 cooling system, can operate for 500,000 miles (19). One 
 U.S. auto executive predicted that by 1997 ceramics would 
 be used in high-heat areas of the power train, such as the 
 turbocharger, in domestic cars. 
 
 In general, the outlook is for ceramic parts or 
 ceramic-coated metal parts to be introduced gradually 
 into high-heat areas of motor vehicle engines. Ceramics 
 for insulation, coatings, and small engine parts are 
 expected to be introduced in at least one U.S. diesel truck 
 line and in some Japanese cars during the early 1990's 
 (33). 
 
 Engines with ceramic blocks as well as small ceramic 
 parts are being tested and demonstrated both in Japan 
 and the United States but will not be commercially 
 
 feasible until early in the next century. 7 Although en- 
 gineered structural ceramics can withstand very high 
 temperatures, they are subject to catastrophic failure 
 (extensive fracture) because of their brittleness. Much 
 research remains to be conducted on advanced ceramics to 
 reduce the chance of catastrophic failure. Well beyond 
 year 2000, lightweight ceramic engines (compared to cast 
 iron engines) may be produced that reduce the weight of 
 the motor vehicle further by operating at high, fuel- 
 efficient temperatures with no radiators. 
 
 Forecast Computations 
 
 For each forecast year, the expected average weights 
 (28, 40, 45, 74-75) of both domestically produced cars and 
 light trucks were multiplied by estimated production 
 levels (8, 22, 27, 43) of these vehicles and combined with 
 the predicted percentage of plastics in the individual 
 vehicles produced (16, 27, 40, 43, 45, 56, 64, 75). For 
 example, estimates of domestic car production (7.4 million 
 units), average new car weight (2,150 lb), and plastic 
 component of car weight (20 pet) were combined to 
 indicate the lower end of the total plastics used (3.2 
 billion lb) for U.S. automobile production in 2000. Such 
 calculations were performed separately for automobiles 
 and vans and for light trucks because the weight, 
 production levels, and shares of material per vehicle 
 varied considerably between these two categories. Fore- 
 cast ranges, rather than a single predicted amount, are 
 used where differences among sources could not be 
 reconciled. 
 
 The quantities of steel replaced by plastics in a given 
 forecast year were derived for table 1 by multiplying the 
 amount of plastics calculated above by a factor of 1.6, 
 which is considered a conservative steel-to-plastic weight 
 ratio for materials used in the industry (21, 57). 
 Information used to compile table 1 indicates that the 
 amount of steel used per vehicle will decline more sharply 
 than average vehicle size during the forecast period. Thus, 
 the predicted decrease in demand for steel must be 
 attributed to more than the production of smaller vehicles. 
 The use of more plastics in car and truck manufacturing is 
 considered to be the primary cause of the decrease beyond 
 "downsizing," although the use of other substitutes (e.g., 
 aluminum, high-strength steels) is a contributing factor. 
 
 AEROSPACE INDUSTRY 
 
 This discussion is focused almost entirely on aircraft 
 manufacturing, which is by far the largest materials- 
 consuming part of the aerospace industry, 8 and the sector 
 for which most information is obtainable. The two 
 primary categories of aircraft are civilian and military. 
 Civilian aircraft include passenger airliners (e.g., Boeing 
 and McDonnel Douglas), general aviation (smaller busi- 
 ness, personal, and utility aircraft such as Cessna, Beech, 
 and Piper), and helicopters. Of the dozen military aircraft 
 types, major categories include fighters, bombers, attack, 
 
 7 One source, however, has indicated that automotive engines built 
 entirely of ceramics could be a commercial reality in the early 1990's. In 
 any case, if engines made of ceramics are standardized and put into mass 
 production, the demand for these materials would easily surpass all other 
 uses combined. 
 
 ^The aerospace industry consists of aircraft, guided missiles, and space 
 vehicles (including engines, equipment, and parts needed for these craft.) 
 Industry shipments totalled $97 billion in 1986 (34). 
 
and cargo-transport. In recent years, the number of 
 civilian aircraft shipped has been as much as three times 
 that of the military, yet the value of military aircraft 
 shipments has been double that of civilian aircraft. 
 
 Aircraft are divided into three general components for 
 purposes of discussion: the airframe, the engine(s), and 
 the avionics (aviation electronic devices and equipment). 
 The airframe can be further divided into primary 
 structures such as wings and fuselage, the failure of which 
 could result in the plane crashing, and secondary 
 structures (doors, flaps, slats) that are less important to 
 aircraft safety. Between these categories is the empen- 
 nage or tail assembly, which can sustain some damage 
 and still enable the aircraft to land. (The tail assembly 
 consists of vertical and horizontal stabilizers, including 
 the fin, rudder, and elevators.) 
 
 Aircraft Composites Versus Automotive 
 Composites 
 
 Plastic composites (see the appendix definitions), the 
 principal materials replacing metal in aircraft manufac- 
 turing, vary considerably from those used for motor 
 vehicles, both in their higher quality and performance and 
 in their attendant greater cost. For example, aircraft 
 fiberglass, made with high-strength S-glass fibers, costs 
 about $10 per pound; while fiberglass for cars and boats, 
 made with weaker E-glass fibers, costs about $1.50 per 
 pound. Similarly, aircraft graphite-epoxy is made of 
 high-strength graphite fibers tightly woven into cloth and 
 costs $20 to $50 per pound, while lower strength and/or 
 lower quality unwoven graphite fiber-epoxy for boats and 
 cars costs a fraction of this price. Other "plastic" aircraft 
 composites include Du Pont aramid fiber Kevlar-epoxy at 
 $10 to $25 per pound, high-temperature-resistant bis- 
 maleimide at $75 per pound, and thermoplastics with 
 glass reinforcing fibers, which are expensive but have no 
 established market prices as yet. (These thermoplastics are 
 more expensive than graphite, but their prices are 
 anticipated to come down through economies of scale 
 when they are produced in large quantities.) As may be 
 expected, the higher prices of aircraft composites reflect 
 the greater labor and longer times needed (compared to 
 car composites) at each stage of processing and/or 
 manufacturing. For example, not only does tightly woven 
 graphite cloth take longer to make than unwoven 
 graphite fibers, but the curing process for graphite-epoxy 
 aircraft parts takes from a minimum of 2 h to as long as 10 
 h (counting an 8-h post cure) compared with 15 min for 
 graphite-epoxy car parts. 
 
 The lower production rate of aircraft versus motor 
 vehicles permits greater use of longer cure composites in 
 aircraft manufacturing. The much higher prices of, and 
 much longer processing times permitted for, aircraft 
 composites allow for their far greater variety vis-a-vis 
 motor vehicle composites. It is in the aerospace sector that 
 new state-of-the-art composites will be developed, rather 
 than in the motor vehicles sector where the goal is largely 
 to increase the plastic parts production rate and reduce 
 the cost of already existing plastics. 
 
 Costs of Composites and Metal in Aircraft 
 
 Overall composite costs are similar to those of metal 
 for aircraft. Initially the composites are more expensive 
 than the metal they replace, but these higher material 
 
 costs are offset by savings in faorication and assembly 
 costs. In fabrication, composites, unlike aluminum, 
 require no machining. An example will illustrate assem- 
 bly cost savings. A particular metal helicopter requires 
 11,000 rivets (as fasteners). The cost of machining the 
 rivet, drilling and inspecting the hole, installing the rivet, 
 and rechecking after installation is $10 per rivet. By 
 contrast, the composites used to build the helicopter can 
 be glued together (with epoxy) for one-tenth the cost. (In 
 this latter case only a small number of mechanical 
 fasteners are needed.) 
 
 Advantages of Composites 
 
 Composites such as graphite-epoxies have several 
 advantages over the aluminum they replace in the 
 airframe. Probably the most significant of these is the 
 lighter weight of composites: aluminum parts generally 
 weigh about 1.3 times as much as the composites that 
 substitute for them. The lighter weight enables the 
 aircraft to have a longer range and/or bigger payload, and 
 increased maneuverability and/or speed. In some cases 
 composites also have higher strength than aluminum, 
 which can also improve maneuverability. For military 
 aircraft, longer range and/or bigger payload and greater 
 maneuverability and/or speed are considered crucial; for 
 civilian aircraft, the main advantage is the increased fuel 
 efficiency, i.e., lower operating cost, which is expected to 
 offset the higher prices of composite parts compared with 
 aluminum. Other advantages include savings in fabrica- 
 tion and asssembly costs. 
 
 Use of Composites in Airframe 
 
 Relatively little experience in the use of composites 
 compared with metals in aircraft means that composites 
 will initially be used mainly in secondary structures, i.e., 
 doors, flaps, slats, and part of the tail. As experience is 
 gained in their use, composites will gradually be 
 incorporated into more primary structures. 
 
 Passenger airliners are just beginning to incorporate 
 composites into their airframes. Although Boeing 757 and 
 767 aircraft are said to make "extensive" use of 
 composites, such materials comprise less than 5 pet of 
 their airframes; it is extensive use, therefore, only in a 
 relative sense, i.e., previous passenger airliners had 
 almost no composites. 
 
 There are numerous reasons, in addition to relative 
 lack of experience, why, despite their advantages, compos- 
 ites will only slowly be introduced into aircraft, especially 
 into passenger airliners. The passenger airliner manufac- 
 turers have huge investments in metalworking machin- 
 ery and equipment; therefore, they would prefer to use 
 this machinery as long as it will last, i.e., 20-plus years (in 
 airliner manufacture). Also, these companies do not want 
 to risk a hasty conversion to composites in case some 
 problem in their use that has not revealed itself in the 
 short or medium term emerges in the long run. In 
 addition, advances such as aluminum-lithium alloys, 
 which are 10 pet lighter in weight than aluminum, extend 
 the time in which metals can compete with composites. 
 
 In manufacturing military aircraft, unlike passenger 
 airliners, the companies are reimbursed for the cost of 
 machinery to make composite parts under military 
 contract. Reflecting this, the military has been quicker to 
 introduce composites into aircraft where performance is 
 
given a higher priority than costs, and passenger airliners 
 have trailed behind because of cost constraints. Another 
 factor contributing to the more rapid adoption of 
 composite parts by the military is that the certification 
 and approval of each new aircraft part (after undergoing 
 testing) by the Federal Aviation Administration (re- 
 sponsible for civilian aircraft certification) is a much 
 slower process than is the military system of certification. 
 
 Several managers and scientists in the aerospace field 
 have indicated that the largest impediment to use of 
 composites in passenger airliners is not of a technical 
 nature, but rather the threat of liability; i.e.", lawyers for 
 plaintiffs in plane-crash lawsuits could call the composites 
 "plastic parts," capitalizing on the image of inferiority 
 that plastics may have among the public. 
 
 Differences between military and private sector 
 aircraft manufacturing regarding the certification, reim- 
 bursement, and liability factors discussed above contri- 
 bute to the greater use of composites in fighter and attack 
 planes. In contrast to the very small percentage of 
 composites in a passenger airliner (less than 5 pet of the 
 airframe weight), military aircraft airframes average 10 
 to 15 pet composites {44), and one aircraft, the AV-8B (the 
 second generation of the British Harrier "jump jet"), 
 already incorporates 26 pet composites (mainly graphite- 
 epoxy) (66). The composites' share of airframe weight in 
 military aircraft is forecast to average 25 pet within 5 to 
 10 yr (44), the advanced tactical fighter (ATF) in the 
 mid-1990's will have 50 pet composites, and some designs 
 of future military aircraft would use as much as 
 60-pct-composite airframes (21). Estimates of the extent to 
 which composites will substitute for aluminum in military 
 aircraft range from 20 to 70 pet of the airframe weight 
 (32). This wide range reflects the high degree of 
 uncertainty in predicting future technological develop- 
 ments for composites, their costs, and their acceptance, 
 and in foreseeing long-term problems, if any, that may 
 develop with composites. 9 
 
 Beyond the year 2000, it is forecast that the next 
 generation fighter plane (i.e., the generation after the 
 ATF) will have a 100-pct-composite airframe, except for 
 metal landing gear struts (29). 
 
 On the other hand, composites use for bombers and 
 cargo-transport aircraft trails far behind that for fighter 
 and attack aircraft. For example, the B-1B bomber's 
 airframe is less than 5 pet composites, one reason being 
 that it was designed 15 yr ago. Similarly the C5-B Galaxy 
 (replacing the C5-A), which is one of the world's largest 
 transports, is almost all metal (airframe). Also, the C17 or 
 C18, which will replace the C130 Hercules transport, was 
 originally designed with no composites, but now will 
 incorporate small amounts of composites in the secondary 
 structure. 
 
 In summary, the percentage by weight of the military 
 airframe made of composites averages more than twice 
 that of civilian airframes. 10 For the many reasons cited 
 above, military aircraft can be expected to continue to lead 
 civilian aircraft in t he u se of composites. 
 
 'It should be noted, however, that the first military application of 
 composites was boron-epoxy used in the tail of the F-14 fighter in 1971, and 
 there has been no problem of the material degrading. (Boron is no longer 
 used in aircraft because it is difficult to work with and more costly than 
 graphite.) 
 
 10 One exception is Beech Aircraft's new Starship (general aviation 
 airplane), which has a 100-pct-composite structure except for metal 
 landing gear struts and engine. However, this one model represents a very 
 small fracton of all general aviation planes, and these, in turn, are a small 
 share of the total civilian aircraft value, most of which is accounted for by ' 
 passenger airliners. 
 
 Use of Composites and Ceramics in Jet Engines 
 
 Unlike the airframe, where composites have already 
 substituted for aluminum in sizable quantities (at least on 
 some military aircraft), the engine area presents technical 
 and/or performance problems more difficult for composites 
 to overcome. The high-temperature environment of jet 
 engines prevents the use of composites such as graphite- 
 epoxy (which can withstand temperatures of 350° F) 
 because the high heat causes layers of the composite to 
 separate, i.e, become unglued. The problem is compounded 
 because this damage usually is undetectable on the 
 airplane and can only be seen through laboratory 
 examination. (Thermoplastics are more damage-tolerant 
 than epoxy composites, but they too cannot withstand the 
 high temperatures.) However, bismaleimide resin, which 
 can withstand at least 450° F and possibly as high as 600° 
 F, is an advanced engineering plastic that replaces 
 titanium in some of the latter's relatively high- 
 temperature engine applications noted below. A specific 
 example of bismaleimide's use is in the AV-8B Harrier 
 jump jet's tilt nozzles used for hovering. 
 
 For jet aircraft engines, titanium rather than alumi- 
 num is used for structures around engines, air ducts, and 
 less intense heat applications in engines. Nickel- and 
 cobalt-base superalloys (made from nickel, cobalt, chro- 
 mium, molybdenum, columbium, and tantalum) are used 
 in the hottest sections, such as the turbine blades. Not only 
 can these metals (especially the superalloys) withstand 
 much higher temperatures than currently developed 
 composites, but also, unlike damage to composites, metals 
 cracking or fracturing is generally detectable on the 
 airplane in advance of failure. 
 
 Turning to engineered ceramics, it is expected that 
 with the exception of their possible use as coatings, 
 ceramics will not be used in jet aircraft engines until well 
 into the next century. Unlike plastic-matrix composites, 
 engineered ceramics retain strength at very high temper- 
 atures. However, they also are subject to catastrophic 
 failure because of their brittleness. With the current state 
 of technology, this characteristic of sudden, virtually total 
 fracture means that ceramic engine parts pose an 
 unacceptable risk of engine failure and resultant loss of 
 life. One possible answer to this problem is ceramic 
 coatings of superalloy metal parts, where the structural 
 integrity of the part is ensured by the underlying metal 
 should the coating fail. Ceramic parts will be used in 
 stationary and unmanned gas turbines and in drones and 
 missiles where their failure would not result in loss of 
 life. These uses will provide significant experience for 
 more high-risk applications. 
 
 Although advanced ceramics are not expected to be 
 used in jet aircraft engines until well beyond the year 
 2000, they offer advantages that almost ensure their 
 eventual use. Engineered ceramics, like polymer compos- 
 ites, are lighter in weight than the metal they replace. 
 Turbine blades composed of ceramics (instead of super- 
 alloys) can be made lighter in weight, which in turn 
 means the turbine blades will be connected to a smaller, 
 lighter shaft, and smaller (and lighter) bearings will 
 suffice, etc. Thus, there is a "cascading benefit," or 
 spillover effect, in that the lighter weight of one group of 
 parts (turbine blades) permits use of other smaller, lighter 
 parts (shaft, bearings, etc.), resulting in a total weight 
 savings of several times the initial decline in weight from 
 using ceramic turbine blades. In addition to their light 
 weight, advanced engineering ceramics have other desir- 
 
able physical and chemical properties, including resist- 
 ance to heat, wear, and corrosion. 
 
 In conclusion, jet aircraft engines are the last bastion 
 of metals, i.e., the last area where metals will be replaced 
 by, in this case, engineering ceramics. For ceramics to be 
 used in this application, they must be made much tougher, 
 i.e., they must be able to absorb much more energy before 
 fracturing. Technological advances to achieve this greatly 
 increased reliability may require many years of research. 
 
 Highest Performance Composites 
 
 There are several types of composites that represent 
 the leading edge of materials technology. These categories 
 of materials, some of which are relatively expensive, 
 include ceramic reinforcement-metal matrix composites, 
 carbon fiber-metal matrix composites, and carbon fiber- 
 carbon matrix composites. An example of the first type is 
 silicon carbide particle-metal matrix composites, which 
 are lighter in weight than the almost 100-pct-pure metals 
 they replace, are heat-resistant, have good thermal 
 stability (i.e., little expansion or contraction), and cost 
 somewhat over $10 per pound. An example of the second 
 type (and at the other end of the cost scale) is a carbon 
 fiber-aluminum-magnesium matrix costing thousands of 
 dollars per pound and used in the space program where 
 weight savings more than make up for the cost of the 
 material. One such carbon-metal composite for optical and 
 communications use in the space program has superior 
 thermal stability, costs as much as $50,000 per pound, and 
 represents the frontier of materials technology. The third 
 type, carbon-carbon composites, like engineering cera- 
 mics, can withstand extremely high temperatures. 
 However, unlike ceramics, they oxidife in an environment 
 such as a jet engine. Work is underway on developing 
 protective coatings for these materials, but it is expected 
 to be at least 5 yr before suitable coatings are produced 
 (44). 
 
 In conclusion, some metal matrix composites repre- 
 sent state-of-the-art technology, and these composites 
 offer opportunities for metallic minerals to regain 
 markets previously lost, if not develop new ones. Of 
 course, the metal consumed per unit of product generally 
 is less for metal composites than for virtually pure metals. 
 
 Forecast Computations 
 
 Calculations based on data collected for this report 
 indicate that, for passenger airliner manufacturing, only 
 500 st of aluminum was displaced by plastic materials 
 (essentially polymer composites) in 1985. This amount 
 accounted for less than 5 pet of the aluminum used in the 
 airframes of these craft. However, at least 4,000 to 11,000 
 st of aluminum, accounting for 20 to 60 pet of consumption 
 for airframes, is expected to be replaced by plastics in 
 airliners for any given year in the 1990's. The procedures 
 followed to calculate this substitution are described below. 
 Note that the substitution estimates are limited to 
 passenger airliner manufacturing, which may account for 
 only one-third of all materials consumed in the aerospace 
 industry. The preceding discussion of the industry 
 provides information on current materials substitution in 
 many areas beyond the airliner sector. However, some 
 data needed to estimate future military, missile, and 
 space programs are highly classified and therefore are not 
 available for a forecast. Nevertheless, in view of the 
 
 foregoing industry discussion, it is not unreasonable to 
 expect these sectors to easily exceed the pace of 
 substitution predicted for passenger airliner production. 11 
 
 For the 1985 airliner estimate given above, the 
 combined weight (1,35) of every type of passenger airliner 
 manufactured in that year was identified and multiplied 
 by 0.7 12 to obtain the total airframe weight produced. This 
 total was then multiplied by the percentage share 
 (approximately 4 pet) of airframe weight accounted for by 
 composites as estimated by various sources (32, 44, 62-63, 
 73). The result of these computations was multiplied by a 
 factor of 1.3, which is the approximate weight ratio of 
 aluminum (21 ) 13 to composites used in the aircraft 
 industry. This final step indicates the estimated amount of 
 aluminum currently displaced by composites in airliner 
 manufacturing. 
 
 For the forecast covering the next decade, a 3.3-pct 
 annual growth rate to 1990 was applied to the total 1985 
 airframe weight. (This increase is predicted by the 
 Department of Commerce (34) for aircraft equipment, 
 including airframe subassemblies, over the next 5 yr. 14 ) 
 The 1990's airframe weight obtained from the computa- 
 tion was then multiplied by the lower and upper limits (25 
 and 65 pet) forecast for composites as a percentage of 
 airframe weight during that period (32, 62, 73). The 
 resulting range of composite weights was then multiplied 
 by the 1.3 weight ratio cited above to indicate the amount 
 of aluminum that could be displaced. 
 
 BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION 
 Discussion 
 
 Several businesses in the U.S. construction industry 15 
 that customarily have been important consumers of metal 
 are increasing their demand for plastics. Principal among 
 these consumers are firms that manufacture pipe and 
 conduit, siding for buildings, and windows for residential 
 housing. Other building trade applications in which 
 plastics are competing with conventional mineral mate- 
 rials include interior and exterior moldings, doors, 
 plumbing fixtures, and insulation (60). 
 
 Lighter weight, lower fabrication costs, design flex- 
 ibility, and maintenance ease are features that have 
 promoted demand for plastic in construction materials 
 and will continue to spur its use by builders over the next 
 decade. According to a recent report (54) — 
 
 The use of plastics in construction has risen 
 steadily since the mid-1960s, when plastic 
 products represented only 2 percent of total 
 
 "Although airliner manufacturing apparently used less than 1 million 
 lb of composites and reinforced polymers in 1985. the Society of Plastics 
 Industry reports that the entire aerospace industry consumed 37 million lb 
 of these materials in that year [60). If all of these composites have replaced 
 aluminum, over 23,000 st of aluminum have been displaced. 
 
 12 The airframe (described earlier) accounts for about 70 pet of airliner 
 weight (71) and is that part of the craft where composites and engineering 
 plastics are replacing metals. 
 
 13 As noted in the preceding discussion of the industry, aluminum is 
 virtually the sole rival of composites for the airframe. 
 
 14 The forecast may be conservative because the Federal Aviation 
 Administration estimates that air passenger traffic will climb at a 
 compound annual rate of 4.5 pet through 1995 {34). 
 
 15 As used here, the domestic construction industry includes all private 
 sector building and public works programs. During 1986. private 
 residential and nonresidential construction totaled about $280 billion, 
 while publicly funded building (roads, bridges, etc.) reached $62 billion 
 (36). 
 
building materials consumed. By 1981, mar- 
 ket share had jumped 10 percent, or 6.5 
 billion pounds valued at $5.7 billion . . . 
 Gains will be most rapid during the 1980s, 
 then moderate (as housing starts decline and 
 some product markets approach saturation). 
 
 The report forecasts that exterior plastic products will 
 exhibit the most rapid growth — over 7 pct/yr — owing to 
 cost differentials between these products and those made 
 of metal. Also according to the report, the consumption of 
 plastic pipe, the strongest challenge faced by metals in 
 construction, will reach 5.5 billion lb annually by 1995. 
 
 As shown in table 2, forecasts of substitution by 
 plastics have been estimated for ductile iron, steel, and 
 aluminum used to produce piping, siding, and window 
 frames. Currently, these items account for slightly less 
 than half of the plastics utilized by the building industry 
 (60). Most of the remaining plastics for construction 
 compete with nonmineral materials, particularly lumber 
 and wood products. 
 
 Table 2.— Substitution by plastics in th U.S. construction 
 industry: 1985, 1990, and 1995 
 
 Substitution 1985 1990 1991 
 
 Metal displaced by plastic pipes and 
 conduit, MMst: 
 
 Iron in sewer lines 1 .95 NA 3.65-5.10 
 
 Steel and iron in drain, waste, and vent 
 
 pipes 0.25 NA 0.34-0.43 
 
 Steel in conduit 0.29 NA 0.34-0.58 
 
 Metal displaced by vinyl siding, Mst: 
 
 Aluminum 25.3 NA 63.6 
 
 Steel 6.7 NA 20.5 
 
 Aluminum displaced by plastic window 
 frames Mst . . 12 24 NA 
 
 NA Not available. 
 
 Steel and ductile iron for conduit and for drain and 
 sewer pipe account for most of the metal that is expected 
 to be replaced by plastics in construction during the early 
 1990's. Most of the gains against metals will be made by 
 plastic piping (predominantly polyvinyl chloride) within 
 buildings and as underground water and drain lines in 
 urban areas (70). Plastic pipe already accounts for over 80 
 pet of all rural mains laid today (replacing cast iron and 
 vitreous clay pipe), but thus far has captured only about 
 40 pet of municipal markets (70). Delays in modification of 
 local plumbing and building codes to permit the use of 
 plastic have retarded conversion in these areas (70). 
 
 In the siding business, aluminum is the metal that 
 faces the greatest competition from plastic (primarily 
 vinyl) (25). Steel presently accounts for only 3 pet of the 
 market, a share that is not expected to change much in the 
 next decade (52). Aluminum, however, is expected to lose 
 about 5 pet of its current market by 1995, and most of this 
 loss can be attributed to substitution by plastics (52). 
 
 Aluminum also faces a strong challenge from plastics 
 as a material used to fabricate window frames for houses 
 and other residential structures. Currently, plastic (pri- 
 marily vinyl) has a 15-pct share of the residential 
 replacement window business and accounts for about 6 pet 
 of the total residential window market (1 7, 51). 1 * Forecasts 
 of demand growth for plastic window frame materials 
 range from 10 to 20 pet per year through 1990 (46, 51). 
 Although aluminum is expected to remain dominant in 
 the commercial and office building market, it is losing 
 about 5 pet of its residential window market each year to 
 
 16 We estimate that residential window space accounted for 57 pet of the 
 total window area in all buildings constructed during 1985. 
 
 plastics and is forecast to be a small factor there by the 
 year 2000 (53). 
 
 In addition to substitution of the metals discussed 
 above, plastics are beginning to compete with copper and 
 glass as construction materials. Small-diameter (1-in or 
 less) plastic pipes are being used in place of copper 
 pressure piping within buildings and homes as fresh 
 water lines. Building trade distributors and retail outlets 
 contacted for this study indicate that plastics account for 
 less than 5 pet of sales in this category but are becoming 
 more competitive (9, 26, 27). In addition, transparent 
 plastics (primarily acrylics) have penetrated some flat 
 glass markets, but are not expected to advance much 
 further unless their prices decrease and problems with 
 ultraviolet light stability and abrasion resistance are 
 overcome (47). 
 
 Forecast Computations 
 
 Using data from industry and government sources, 
 the procedures described below were followed to calculate 
 the forecasts shown in table 2. 
 
 Pipe and Conduit 
 
 Two methods of calculating substitution were used to 
 provide a cross-check and forecast range for pipe and 
 conduit materials. First, an estimate of total domestic pipe 
 consumption for the construction industry in 1995 (4.0 
 billion ft) was obtained (50). The source of this estimate 
 also indicated that plastic pipe would increase its market 
 share to 55 pet (currently 45 pet) for all uses including 
 construction. In addition, it was assumed that the 
 proportions of plastic pipe used to compete against steel 
 conduit, steel and iron drains and vents, and ductile iron 
 sewer lines would be the same as the average for the last 5 
 yr for which data were available (1980-84). 
 
 By combining this information with estimated 
 weights of plastic, steel conduit, and iron pipe (10, 24, 37, 
 57-58),the lower end of the forecast range was computed 
 for table 2." For example, 4.0 billion ft x 0.55 x 0.125 
 (proportion of plastic pipe used as conduit between 1980 
 and 1984) x 2.5 lb of steel per foot of conduit = 344,000 st 
 of steel conduit demand replaced by plastic pipe use in 
 1995. 
 
 The second approach used to calculate metal pipe 
 replacement provides the upper end of the range shown in 
 table 2. The basis of this approach was sources that 
 indicated that plastic pipe and fittings for construction 
 would increase at 6 to 7 pet annually to 5.52 billion lb in 
 1995 (48). The same 1980-84 competitive proportions cited 
 above were assumed to be constant. These data and the 
 weights of plastic used for conduit, drain, vent, and sewer 
 pipe then were used to calculate the lengths of plastic pipe 
 consumed in these categories in 1995. Weights of 
 equivalent lengths of steel conduit and iron and steel 
 drains and sewer lines then were used to calculate the 
 higher forecast in table 2. 
 
 Siding 
 
 Current displacement of aluminum and steel siding 
 by vinyl siding is estimated from market share data for 
 
 "Weight estimates used for pipe calculations are as follows: plastic 
 conduit, drain-vent, and sewer lines are 1.5, 2.0 and 3.5 lb/ft, respectively; 
 steel conduit and drain- vent lines are 2.5 lb/ft and ductile iron sewer lines 
 are 18.5 lb/ft. The steel and iron weights are based on smaller than average 
 pipe sizes to avoid exaggerated substitution estimates. 
 
10 
 
 1984, the latest information available (72). These data 
 indicate the following siding market shares for that year: 
 aluminum, 17 pet; steel, 3 pet; vinyl, 14 pet; other 
 materials (primarily wood and asphalt), 66 pet. Thus, 
 aluminum and steel account for 20 and 3 pet, respectively, 
 of all nonplastic siding materials. Based on these 
 percentages and confirmation by interview sources, it is 
 estimated that at least 20 pet of the current plastic market 
 •once belonged to aluminum and roughly 3 pet previously 
 was occupied by steel (11). These percentages of the 1984 
 vinyl siding market (563 million ft 2 ) equate to 112.6 
 million ft 2 of aluminum and 16.9 million ft 2 of steel. The 
 estimated 1985 tonnages shown in table 2 are based on 
 these figures and the quantities of aluminum or steel 
 needed per unit area of siding produced. 18 
 
 One source indicates that by 1995, aluminum and 
 steel would lose an additional 5 and 1 pet of their current 
 markets, respectively (52). However, plastics use is 
 expected to increase and account for 81 pet of all market 
 share growth by 1995 (52). Total siding of all materials is 
 forecast at 4.25 billion ft 2 (52). Thus, 5 pet of 4.25 billion ft 2 
 multiplied by 0.81 was used to indicate the additional 
 amount of aluminum siding that would be lost in 
 competition with plastic by 1995. Substitution for steel 
 was calculated in a like manner. 
 
 Windows 
 
 The forecast substitution of aluminum by plastic for 
 windows uses the following data obtained from industry 
 sources: (1) Total number of aluminum residential 
 windows (19 million) installed in 1985 (17); (2) number of 
 plastic-frame windows (2 million) replacing aluminum 
 windows in 1985, with annual growth rate (15 pet 
 minimum) of the former to 1990 (13, 46, 51, 53); and (3) 
 amount of metal (12 to 15 lb) in aluminum residential 
 windows (17). With these data, the amount of aluminum 
 replaced by plastic was calculated for the residential 
 replacement window market. For example, 2 million 
 window frame units in 1985 with 15 pet growth 
 compounded annually reaches 4 million units in 1990; 4 
 million units at 12 lb each equals the tonnage shown in 
 table 2. Additional aluminum markets would be lost if 
 plastics are improved for use in windows for commmercial 
 and office buildings. 
 
 PACKAGING INDUSTRY 
 
 The U.S. packaging industry 19 is the one sector 
 analyzed in this report where plastics are displacing 
 significant amounts of glass as well as metals. This 
 substitution is occurring primarily in the soft drink 
 container market, which accounts for about one-third of 
 all can and bottle demand. In the remainder of the 
 packaging industry, plastics compete with other materials 
 (e.g., paper and paperboard) in addition to metals and 
 glass, as discussed below. 
 
 Packaging is the largest market for plastics, account- 
 ing for 12.7 billion lb or 28 pet of polymers sales in 1985 
 (60). However, these are virtually all "commodity" 
 plastics having low unit value, so their total value in 
 
 18 Each 100 ft 2 of metal residential siding uses approximately 45 lb of 
 aluminum or 80 lb of steel (17, 57). 
 
 19 The packaging industry has two basic types of products: (1) rigid 
 containers (e.g., bottles and cans) and (2) flexible bags, wraps, and liners. 
 Industry shipments in 1985 totaled $64 billion; nearly 40 pet of this was 
 accounted for by paperboard (59). 
 
 packaging may be less than that of the engineering 
 plastics used in transportation, where only one-sixth as 
 much of the material was sold this same year (60). For 
 example, plastics for packaging may cost about $0.40 per 
 pound, while those in automobiles cost several times as 
 much ($1 to $2 per pound), and aircraft plastics are about 
 100 times as costly ($20 to $50 per pound). 
 
 Metal Cans 
 
 Seventy percent of all metal cans are for beverages 
 and another 25 pet are for food. (Beverage cans are almost 
 evenly divided between beer and soft drink use.) Until the 
 1950's, virtually all cans were made of tin-plated steel (the 
 so-called "tin can"). Since that time, aluminum has made 
 steady inroads, capturing 94 pet of the beverage can 
 market from steel (2). The reverse percentages are true for 
 food cans; i.e., steel retains 94 pet of this market and 
 aluminum has the remaining 6 pet (6). 
 
 Since 1979, "cans and containers" has been alumi- 
 num's largest end use, in which it has several advantages 
 over steel: (1) Aluminum cans are much lighter (about 
 one-third the weight of steel cans), (2) they are seamless, 
 unlike some steel cans that have welded or glued seams 
 (soldered seams are being phased out), and (3) aluminum 
 cans are easily recycled; in fact, more than half of this 
 metal is reused. 
 
 In spite of these advantages, aluminum must over- 
 come some technical problems before being used on a large 
 scale in the food can market. In contrast to beverage use, 
 where carbonation provides the necessary internal pres- 
 sure to prevent collapse of aluminum cans, food cans, 
 contain not such pressure (in fact, they have a vacuum). 
 To prevent collapse, structurally strong aluminum food 
 cans must be built with higher strength aluminum alloys 
 and improved designs. One way of introducing internal 
 pressure is to inject liquified nitrogen into the can just 
 prior to sealing, where it warms up rapidly, evaporates, 
 and produces gas pressure (2). Some in the can industry, 
 especially executives in the aluminum industry, think 
 these technical problems faced by aluminum food cans 
 will be solved, thereby displacing steel in this market. 
 
 Although many in the container industry feel that 
 beverage cans are a relatively secure market for alumi- 
 num, there are others who believe that plastic cans now 
 being test-marketed for soft drinks will replace aluminum 
 cans there. Despite the likely attraction of transparent 
 plastic cans to consumers, these containers are more 
 costly than aluminum cans and are not as easily recycled 
 (18). 
 
 Can industry forecasts are less certain than those in 
 the motor vehicle and aircraft industries, where compos- 
 ites (plastics) are more likely to continue replacing steel 
 and aluminum, respectively. Producers in the can 
 industry do not have a consensus on which materials will 
 gain and which will lose market shares. 
 
 The metal can market is forecast to only grow about 1 
 pct/yr, paralleling the growth in population. Beverage 
 cans are anticipated to grow at a higher rate (2 to 3 pet yr) 
 as the population has been increasing its consumption of 
 soft drinks and correspondingly decreasing its use of 
 coffee. Some think that this substitution of soft drinks for 
 coffee has run its course, but others believe that added 
 health concerns about coffee, higher coffee prices, etc.. 
 could mean further substitution (.higher soft drink usage \ 
 
 Partly offsetting this beverage can growth, the food 
 can market is expected to decline slightly for several 
 
11 
 
 reasons. These include reduced preparation of food at 
 home due to smaller families and more working mothers; 
 more use of frozen foods, partly because microwave ovens 
 have increased the convenience of these foods by reducing 
 their cooking time, 20 and larger consumption of food 
 outside the home (6). 
 
 Bottles 
 
 Plastic bottles have made significant inroads into the 
 soft drink market at the expense of glass because they 
 have two advantages: plastic bottles are lighter in weight 
 and far less susceptible to breakage than glass bottles. 
 Both of these attributes reduce handling costs, and lighter 
 weight also reduces fuel consumption costs in shipping. 
 
 The vast majority of plastic soft drink bottles used 
 thus far have been in the 1- to 3-L size, and most of these 
 were 2-L bottles. Smaller 16-oz and V2-L plastic bottles 
 have been test-marketed in limited areas. The problem 
 with these smaller bottles is loss of carbonation through 
 the plastic wall (technically called inadequate "barrier 
 properties" of the plastic), which reduces shelf life to an 
 unacceptable level except in large cities, where quick 
 turnover of inventory minimizes this problem (6). 21 
 
 Glass bottle manufacturers are responding to the 
 threat of substitution by using thinner glass-walled soft 
 drink bottles covered with plastic foam in the 16-oz and 
 V2-L sizes to reduce weight and breakage, respectively. 
 These glass bottles are competitive, if not cheaper, in 
 price, than similar size plastic bottles, and glass, unlike 
 plastic, has no problem of inadequate barrier capabilities. 
 
 Also, traditional glass bottle makers have diversified 
 into plastics. Owens-Illinois Inc., one of the largest and 
 first to diversify of the glass container manufacturers, 
 derives 25 pet of its sales from plastic containers (23). Ken- 
 Glass Manufacturing Corp. also has entered the plastic 
 container market (18). 
 
 Flexible Packaging 
 
 Flexible packaging includes plastic bags, liners, films, 
 aluminum foil, paper, cardboard boxes, and combinations 
 of these. It is the largest plastics-consuming category 
 within the packaging sector, accounting for almost 
 one-half of all plastics consumed in this market. The 
 advent of the microwave oven has led to use of plastic 
 dishes, trays, and lids for frozen foods at the expense of 
 aluminum trays and foils. Consequently, the aluminum 
 industry has been trying to develop a microwavable 
 aluminum. In some cases the two materials are combined; 
 for example, bags and "aseptic" 22 bottles are composed of 
 aluminum foil laminated with plastic. 
 
 Drums 
 
 Drums are large steel, paperboard, cardboard, or 
 plastic containers varying in capacity from 5 or 10 gal to 
 more than 100 gal. Bulk chemicals are often shipped in 
 drums, but chemicals in liquid form would generally not 
 
 20 Microwave ovens have also been responsible for the growing use of 
 plastic dishes for frozen dinners at the expense of aluminum trays as 
 discussed in the "Flexible Packaging" section below. 
 
 21 This carbonation loss is only a minor problem for the 1-L size and 
 virtually no problem for the larger size bottles. 
 
 22 Aseptic packages are discussed below in the "New Developments" 
 section. 
 
 be sold or stored in the paperboard or cardboard type. 
 These containers require much more steel, plastic, etc., 
 per unit than smaller cans and bottles do, yet because far 
 fewer of these drums are produced, the total quantity of 
 material consumed in their manufacture is probably less 
 than for cans and bottles. In this segment of the packaging 
 market, drums composed of plastic increasingly are 
 displacing those made of steel. 
 
 Substitution Among Different Types of Packaging 
 
 Some complications should be mentioned, although 
 they can be difficult to analyze and/or quantify. Not only 
 do aluminum and steel cans compete against each other 
 and plastic bottles, but cans also substitute for glass 
 bottles and jars, and all of these compete against paper 
 containers (e.g., frozen juices in paper "tubes" or cans, 
 frozen vegetables in cardboard boxes, etc.). Aseptic 
 packages (see following discussion) compete as well, and 
 plastic cans, should they prove commercial, will also 
 compete. As a final example, plastic bags for frozen 
 vegetables compete against paper boxes, steel food cans, 
 and a relatively small quantity of glass jars. Therefore, 
 while aluminum cans are the largest competitor of steel 
 cans (and plastic bottles are the largest competitor of glass 
 bottles), competition among all of these types of containers 
 significantly complicates market forecasts. Moreover, 
 customer preference for these container materials depends 
 largely on consumer tastes that are not amenable to 
 analysis. 
 
 New Developments 
 
 Polymer manufacturers are conducting R&D to try to 
 solve the problem of carbonation loss from plastic 
 containers by making the bottles up to eight layers thick 
 (7). In addition, "aseptic" packages made of aluminum foil 
 laminated with plastic are capable of keeping milk and 
 fruit juices or drinks fresh for 6 months without 
 refrigeration. Utilizing an "ultra-pasteurization" process 
 from Sweden, these containers in small sizes (e.g. 8 oz) 
 have been growing in popularity since their introduction 
 several years ago in this country; in Europe, they have 
 been available for many years. 
 
 In January 1986, Aluminum Co. of America (Alcoa) 
 and Metal Box America, Inc., agreed to form a joint 
 venture in the United States to develop and produce 
 plastic food containers. About $100 million is to be 
 invested in the venture over the first 3 yr, with each 
 company having a 50-pct interest (3). Metal Box America 
 is owned by Metal Box PLC, Britain's largest food, 
 beverage, and aerosol container supplier. Improving the 
 barrier capabilities of plastic packages to prevent loss of 
 carbonation, infiltration of oxygen, and migration of 
 moisture through the container wall has been under 
 development by Metal Box (3). This is an example of 
 Alcoa's strategy in recent years to diversify beyond 
 aluminum to polymeric materials and thereby protect 
 and/or increase its share of the packaging market should 
 plastics displace aluminum. Thus, substitution of metal 
 by plastics may represent opportunities as well as 
 challenges to Alcoa. 
 
 Forecast Computations 
 
 Based on information compiled for this report, it is 
 possible to estimate substitution of plastics for glass and 
 
12 
 
 metal in the rigid container sector of the packaging 
 industry. In this sector, plastics compete with glass, metal 
 (aluminum and steel), and paperboard primarily for use in 
 bottles and cans. For this market it is estimated that 
 plastics will displace approximately $386 million of glass 
 containers and $223 million of metal containers in 1990. 
 This displacement accounts for about 7 pet and 2 pet of the 
 1985 glass and metal container market, respectively. 
 
 In addition to the above forecast, estimates of 
 substitution by plastics were made for the soft drink 
 container market, the largest single market for plastic 
 bottles. One-fifth of all plastic bottle and can shipments in 
 1985 were used in this market, where plastic competes 
 primarily with glass and aluminum. 23 
 
 The soft drink sector is one of the few rigid container 
 markets predicted to grow appreciably, but it is expected 
 to increase no more than 2 pct/yr through this decade (7). 
 For the same period, the Department of Commerce 
 estimates that plastic bottle production will increase 4 
 pct/yr, while metal can shipments will grow 1 pct/yr and 
 glass bottle output will decline 0.5 pct/yr (6). Thus, it 
 appears that most of the predicted plastics increase will 
 erode glass and aluminum container markets rather than 
 merely expand with growing soft drink demand. The 
 estimated maximum amount of glass or aluminum that 
 would be displaced by plastics in the soft drink market 
 follows, in million short tons: 
 
 
 1990 
 
 1995 
 
 Glass 
 
 Aluminum 
 
 7.8 
 47 
 
 10.9 
 .66 
 
 The data shown for the forecast years are not cumulative. 
 
 The quantities shown for glass and aluminum 
 displacement in the soft drink sector should not be 
 combined to represent total substitution by plastic. 
 Instead, each figure is intended to show only the 
 maximum amount of glass or aluminum that would be 
 displaced if each material alone was to compete with 
 plastic. If current trends continue, glass will suffer more 
 than aluminum in competition with plastic bottling. 
 However, not enough information is available for a more 
 precise differentiation among these competitors regarding 
 substitution. 
 
 Different methods were used to make the preceding 
 rigid container and soft drink market forecasts. For the 
 rigid container forecast, Department of Commerce data on 
 1985 rigid container sales (59) and growth rates (6) were 
 combined to estimate the value of glass and aluminum 
 market shares that will be lost to plastics in 1990. 24 These 
 calculations indicate that, by 1990, total bottle and can 
 sales will reach $29 billion; and that the market share for 
 plastic bottles will increase 2.1 pet as shares for glass and 
 metal decline by 1.9 and 1.1 pet, respectively. Plastic 
 accounted for 70 pet of all market share increases 
 computed. 25 Thus, 70 pet of the market share losses for 
 glass and metal are attributed to plastics growth. For 
 example, the figure that represents market losses by 
 glass between 1985 and 1990 equals 0.7 of 1.9 pet 
 multiplied by $29 billion. 
 
 23 Aluminum represented 94 pet of 1985 beverages can production; the 
 remainder is accounted for by steel (2). 
 
 "Plastic bottle shipments in 1985 totaled about $4.3 billion (59). This 
 value indicates, at least approximately, the magnitude of the market 
 already lost by glass and metal. 
 
 ^Paperboard represents the remaining growth. 
 
 The soft drink container forecast was developed by 
 combining data that indicate the number of plastic bottles 
 shipped in 1985, plastic container industry growth to 
 1990, forecasts of 1995 plastic bottle output, and the 
 amount of glass or aluminum needed to match the total 
 capacity of plastic bottles produced (6-7, 15). Forecast data 
 indicate that shipments of 16-oz plastic beverage bottles 
 will grow from 870 million units in 1985 to 8.0 billion 
 units in 1995, while shipments of 1- to 3-L (primarily 2-L) 
 plastic bottles will increase from 4.1 to 5.5 billion units 
 during the same period (15). The 1995 estimates are based 
 on the total container capacity of the plastic bottle figures 
 for that year and the amounts of glass or aluminum 
 needed to produce an equivalent number of bottles and/or 
 cans. 26 For 1990, the same capacity equivalents were 
 applied to 1985 plastic bottle shipments increased by the 
 compound annual rate of 4 pet cited above. Before volume 
 equivalents were computed, 1990 and 1995 plastic bottle 
 estimates were reduced by 10 and 20 pet, respectively, to 
 account for growth in the soft drink market (2 pet per 
 year), which would mitigate the impact of substitution. 
 
 HEAVY MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT 
 PRODUCTION 
 
 The heavy machinery and equipment industry 27 
 consumed about 348 million lb of plastics yearly between 
 1980 and 1985, primarily to replace metals. Although a 
 small portion of plastics substitute for rubber in hoses and 
 gaskets, most polymer materials are used to manufacture 
 parts such as casings, shields, instrument panels, and 
 housings formerly made from steel, cast iron, or alumi- 
 num (39). The plastics are used to achieve lower costs 
 based on lighter weight and ease of fabrication (39). 
 
 The total impact of substitution by plastics in this 
 sector can be measured to some extent, but available 
 information is not detailed enough to permit much 
 differentiation among the types and quantities of metal 
 displaced. As the chief rival of plastics in the industry, 
 steel reportedly is the metal most affected by the 
 substitution underway there. Based on the density of 
 various materials used, it is estimated that even' pound of 
 plastic in the industry could displace about 4 lb of metal. 2 * 
 Thus, during 1985, plastics may have displaced approx- 
 imately 700,000 st of metal in the machinery, equipment 
 and tool industry. This quantity is relatively small 
 compared with substitution by plastics in other industry 
 sectors examined for this report. Nevertheless, the 
 0.7-million-st amount equals almost 7 pet of steel 
 shipments for all machinery. 
 
 Neither the literature search nor the interviews 
 conducted for this study yielded specific forecasts for 
 plastic in the machinery and equipment industry. 
 However, Department of Commerce estimates indicate 
 that all but a few sectors of the industry will grow by 
 
 ^Approximately 11.3 02 of glass or 0.6 oz of aluminum iJ?> is used to 
 produce a 16-oz bottle or can. A 2-L bottle matches the capacity of 4.24 
 16-oz bottles andor cans. 
 
 -This sector encompasses producers of machinery, tools, and equipment 
 for all industrial segments of the U.S. economy, including those examined 
 in this report. 
 
 -^The specific gravity of the most dense polymers used in the heavy 
 machinery industry 1 reinforced thermoses is approximately 2.0. while 
 the average specific gravity for steels is about 7.8 (38. 57. 601. If the 
 dimensional thickness of plastics used in the industry is much greater than 
 that of the metals replaced, the ratio of these specific gravities should be 
 correspondingly reduced. 
 
13 
 
 about 3 to 7 pet annually through 1990 (68). Assuming 
 that at least the minimum growth rate of 3 pet will 
 prevail, average yearly consumption of plastic in the 
 industry could increase to as much as 403 million lb in 
 
 1990. Using the steel-polymer density ratio noted above, 
 this quantity of plastics equates to a displacement of 0.8 
 million st of metal. 
 
 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 
 
 The preceding analyses and the interviews with 
 professionals in materials development and marketing 
 indicate that advanced materials such as engineering 
 polymers present dramatic challenges and opportunities 
 for conventional nonfuel mineral producers. Substitution 
 forecasts presented with the preceding analyses are 
 summarized in table 3. Conclusions regarding these 
 forecasts and key factors that will influence the emerg- 
 ence of advanced materials during the 1990's are 
 discusssed below. 
 
 Table 3.— Summary of identified substitution by advanced 
 plastic materials in five major U.S. industries 1 
 
 Industrial sector 1985 1990 1995 2000 
 
 Motor vehicle manufacturing: 
 Steel displaced by 
 
 plastics MMst.. 1.3 1.8-2.4 Nl 2.7-7.3 
 
 Do pet .. 7-9 Nl Nl 8-19 
 
 Passenger airliner manufacturing: 2 
 Aluminum displaced by 
 polymer composites 
 
 Mst .. 0.5 Nl 4.0-11.0 
 
 Do pet . . 3 Nl Nl 20-60 
 
 Building and construction: 3 
 Iron and steel displaced 
 by plastics . . MMst . . 2.5 Nl 4.3-6.1 Nl 
 
 Do pet .. 9 Nl 10-13 Nl 
 
 Aluminum displaced by 
 
 plastics Mst . . 37 Nl 64 Nl 
 
 Packaging (bottling and 
 canning), MM$: 
 Glass displaced by 
 
 plastics Nl 386 Nl Nl 
 
 Metal (Aluminum and 
 steel) displaced by 
 
 plastics Nl 223 Nl Nl 
 
 Heavy machinery and equipment: 
 Metal displaced by 
 
 plastics Mst . . 700 800 Nl Nl 
 
 Do pet . . 5 5 Nl Nl 
 
 Nl Not identified. 
 
 'See "Forecast Computations" portions of "Industry Analyses and Fore- 
 casts" section for an explanation of the estimates shown in this table. Data 
 shown are not cumulative. 
 
 2 Excludes military and private civil aircraft. For 1 985, it is estimated that over 
 23,000 st of aluminum were displaced by plastic composites in the entire 
 aerospace industry. 
 
 'Displacement in pipe, tube, siding, and window markets. 
 
 SUBSTITUTION FORECASTS 
 
 1. Plastics 29 have made the strongest competitive 
 advances of all materials against metals and glass in 
 many markets and will continue to do so in the 1990's. 
 Calculations based on information obtained for this study 
 indicate that at least one-fourth of all plastics and resins 
 produced domestically compete directly with nonfuel 
 mineral materials (table A-l). These computations do not 
 include those markets where plastics compete with so 
 many other materials in addition to nonfuel minerals that 
 displacement of the latter could not be measured with 
 sufficient precision. If these markets were added to the 
 calculations of plastics use, the total probably would 
 indicate that well over one-third of U.S. plastics produc- 
 tion competes with metal and nonmetal minerals. 
 
 29 See appendix for definitions and descriptions of advanced materials 
 examined in this report. 
 
 2. As suggested by table 3, the 1990's will be a period 
 of more intense competition between metals and poly- 
 mers. Some automobile and aerospace executives believe 
 that the outcome of this competition will determine which 
 materials will be dominant within their industries in the 
 21st century. Steel and aluminum are the major metals 
 most likely to be affected. Polymer materials already have 
 replaced about 7 to 9 pet of the steel consumed in domestic 
 motor vehicle production and may displace more than 
 double that amount by the year 2000. In the construction 
 industry, it is estimated that polymers have replaced 
 slightly less than 10 pet of the iron and steel consumed, 
 and by 1995 could displace up to 13 pet. In aerospace 
 applications, polymer composites are displacing alumi- 
 num used for the "skin" of many new military aircraft and 
 are expected to make large inroads in passenger airliner 
 manufacturing during the next decade. Composites 
 currently account for less than 3 pet of passenger airframe 
 weight, but are forecast to account for as much as 65 pet 
 during the 1990's (66). As a result, the proportion of 
 passenger airframe weight composed of aluminum may 
 decrease from the current 80 pet to as little as 20 pet by 
 2000. 
 
 The U.S. motor vehicle industry offers the greatest 
 market potential for polymers by virtue of its demand for 
 large volumes of steel that could be replaced by plastics. 
 However, the outcome of materials competition in the 
 industry is far from decided. An automobile executive 
 contacted for this paper states that "steel still could be the 
 'high-tech material' of the future" (4). High-strength 
 specialty steels coupled with new corrosion-resistant 
 processes are being developed to complete more effectively 
 with polymers in car and truck manufacturing. The wide 
 forecast range shown for the year 2000 in table 3 reflects 
 differences among experts interviewed about the degree of 
 plastics substitution in the industry. If polymers can be 
 developed for use as chassis parts (e.g., frames, wheels, 
 and suspensions) as well as body panels, the upper end of 
 the range shown in table 3 becomes more probable. 
 
 While the full extent of substitution by plastics is still 
 debated in the motor vehicle industry, much greater use of 
 reinforced polymers in the aerospace industry is virtually 
 assured, at least in the military segment. This increased 
 use appears inevitable for several reasons. First, for 
 military aircraft, the primary goals of greater maneuver- 
 ability, speed, and range are achieved most efficiently 
 through weight reduction, and composites promise greater 
 weight savings than any other material. Second, for all 
 aircraft, the longer assembly line time and low unit 
 output (as contrasted with mass-produced automobiles) is 
 attuned to the longer curing and molding time required 
 for polymer materials and parts. Finally, unlike their 
 automotive counterparts, manufacturers of high-priced 
 aircraft can more easily pass the greater costs of 
 high-strength composites on to their customers. 
 
 3. As described in the preceding section, commercial 
 use of advanced ceramics for nonelectrical purposes 
 (principally as parts for motor vehicle engines) could 
 
14 
 
 increase significantly during the 1990's, but these mate- 
 rials will not displace large quantities of metal in this 
 century. Although ceramics are not expected to be used 
 (except as coatings) in jet aircraft engines until well 
 beyond the year 2000, they offer advantages that virtually 
 ensure their eventual substitution for some quantity of 
 critical metals and/or alloys in the aerospace industry. 
 
 CONDITIONS INFLUENCING SUBSTITUTION 
 
 1. Metal and glass producers have taken two 
 approaches in response to strong competition from new 
 materials: (1) increase R&D to improve competitiveness of 
 current products, and (2) diversify production to include 
 new materials. Examples among the first approach are the 
 aluminum-lithium alloys developed to compete in the 
 aerospace industry, and the new steels especially de- 
 veloped to match automobile manufacturing needs. 
 Producers that have taken the second approach include a 
 major U.S. glass container company that also produces 
 plastic bottles, and domestic metal companies that have 
 acquired high-tech materials firms or participate in joint 
 production ventures with them. These latter companies 
 are, in effect, wisely "hedging their bets" by seeking a 
 strong market position regardless of which competing 
 materials gain dominance. 
 
 2. New materials emerge first in those markets 
 where superior performance properties rather than lower 
 costs appear to be the principal consideration. Thus, 
 advanced materials are prominent in high-tech industries 
 (e.g., aerospace) where product performance criteria are so 
 high that there is no alternative but to develop better 
 materials despite initial costs. However, costs eventually 
 determine both the pace and extent of the substitution 
 process beyond the initial market. As increased output 
 and production experience reduce unit costs, new 'mate- 
 rials become more competitive and can capture additional 
 markets. At this point, it becomes very difficult for 
 conventional materials producers to reverse the substitu- 
 tion trend and regain their original market shares. 
 
 3. The only relevant cost consideration in materials 
 substitution today is the so-called "total package cost" 
 (30). This cost includes not only the price of the material 
 itself, but also all other costs involved in using the 
 material to manufacture a product. Many new materials 
 are priced higher than the conventional materials they 
 displace. However, these new materials may be preferred 
 because they offer the opportunity to reduce manufactur- 
 ing costs sufficiently to offset their higher prices. For 
 example, a one-piece plastic unit that replaces an item 
 built from several parts could reduce assembly costs. 
 Because total package costs are so important, materials 
 producers now must work more closely with parts 
 designers and other manufacturing system specialists to 
 develop a product that is competitive. 
 
 4. Important considerations other than the intrinsic 
 qualities of materials cost and performance also bear on 
 the timing and rate of substitution. First, new materials 
 must have a "proven track record"; i.e., firms are reluctant 
 to incorporate a new material into their product until its 
 performance record in other uses has proven reliability. 
 Thus, superior performance in laboratory testing may be 
 followed by years, or even decades, of observation (as in 
 the aerospace industry where risks are high), before a new 
 material is accepted as a substitute for a metal proven 
 
 reliable by long use. Hesitancy to introduce a new 
 material also results when a potential industrial user is 
 not aware of all advantages offered by a new material, 
 lacks assembly line experience with it, or would incur 
 high retooling costs by converting to it. The cautious "wait 
 and see" stance is an attitude that favors conventional 
 materials already in place. It was observed in a diversity 
 of industries regardless of whether the new material in 
 question was for high-tech aerospace use or for common 
 plumbing fixtures in the building trade. 
 
 Another condition (beyond materials cost and capabil- 
 ity) that affects the intensity and pace of substitution is 
 the status of the additional infrastructure needed to 
 supply raw materials and tooling, distribute parts and 
 equipment, and provide the training and expertise needed 
 by manufacturers to fabricate their products from new 
 materials. The establishment of such an infrastructure 
 may take many years and can delay the commercial 
 introduction of a new material long after what might be 
 expected if one were to consider only the superior 
 performance characteristics of the material relative to 
 price. 
 
 5. The Federal Government exerts an important 
 influence on advanced materials development through the 
 individual research programs of its various agencies. 
 These programs for advanced materials development total 
 about $200 million annually (69) and entail funding for 
 industry and university research as well as R&D by the 
 Government itself. 30 In addition to funding and conducting 
 research, the Federal Government can influence private 
 sector materials development through its tax structure, 
 antitrust requirements, incentives for capital investment, 
 regulatory activities, and patent procedures. The com- 
 bined impact of these activities on materials development 
 and marketing is not clear, particularly given the new 
 Federal tax reforms. 
 
 It is important to recognize that Federal materials 
 research primarily is driven by priorities other than new 
 materials development per se. Federal agencies fund 
 materials research principally because existing materials 
 do not meet the needs of their specific program goals. For 
 example, Department of Defense requirements for low- 
 weight weapons or long-range aircraft create demands for 
 lighter materials that in turn lead to new materials 
 research. Thus, new domestic materials industries in 
 effect have become the unplanned "spinoffs" of related 
 Government objectives. 
 
 One other aspect of Federal materials programs 
 should be noted. Although each of these materials 
 programs has individual objectives already judged to be in 
 the national interest by the Executive Branch and 
 Congress, it is clear that some of them have conflicting 
 consequences; i.e., by supporting advanced materials 
 R&D, the Government creates competitors for domestic 
 mineral industries that also receive Government assist- 
 ance. Perhaps this conflicting support ultimately produces 
 improved materials through the rivalry it promotes. 
 Nevertheless, Federal agencies should reexamine the net 
 effects of their materials research very carefully and 
 coordinate their efforts more closely to avoid major 
 program conflicts. 
 
 6. The Federal Government may not have sufficient 
 information to develop appropriate policies regarding the 
 impact of advanced materials. New polymer industries. 
 
 ^Funding for all Federal programs that directly or indirectly involve 
 research on conventional materials as well as advanced materials may 
 exceed $1 billion. 
 
15 
 
 for example, are emerging and growing so rapidly that 
 Government data collection has not been able to keep 
 pace. Even basic data such as number of firms and 
 establishments sometimes must be estimated. It is normal 
 for information to lag behind developments in industries 
 that typically are dynamic. However, projected growth 
 rates for the advanced plastics and ceramics industries 
 indicate that these sectors will become major, permanent 
 market components that must be monitored effectively as 
 interest in them expands and their economic and strategic 
 importance increases. 
 
 7. The displacement of outmoded materials by super- 
 ior substitutes is a recurring theme in the history of 
 materials science. Thus, it can be argued that the 
 
 competitive advances made by modern materials repre- 
 sent nothing more than the classic case of a substitute 
 that cannot be deterred in the long run if it offers superior 
 quality not otherwise available. Nevertheless, it is 
 precisely the reach for higher quality, and thereby greater 
 competitiveness, that motivates high-tech materials de- 
 velopment and use. The resulting increase in competition 
 has inflicted market losses on some conventional mate- 
 rials producers. However, as indicated by several industry 
 executives interviewed, the net result, or so-called 
 "bottom line," of high-tech substitution is that consumers 
 can purchase better, lower cost products, and that U.S. 
 manufacturers have more opportunities to be competitive 
 in world markets. 
 
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 35. Kingsbury, G. (Int. Trade Admin., U.S. Dep. Commerce). 
 Private communication, May 1986; available upon request from 
 R. Balazik, BuMines, Washington, DC. 
 
 36. MacAuley, P. Construction. Ch. in 1987 U.S. Industrial 
 Outlook. U.S. Dep. Commerce, Washington, DC, Jan. 1987, pp. 
 1/1-1/17. 
 
 37. Manus, D. (Charlotte Pipe & Foundry Co.). Private 
 communication, May 1986; available upon request from R. 
 Balazik, BuMines, Washington, DC. 
 
16 
 
 38. McGraw-Hill, Inc. (New York). Modern Plastics Encyc- 
 lopedia: 1984-1985. No. 10A, Oct. 1984, 824 pp. 
 
 39. Mearman, J. (Int. Trade Admin., U.S. Dep. Commerce). 
 Private communication, June 1986; available upon request from 
 R. Balazik, BuMines, Washington, D.C. 
 
 40. Millar M., C. Hudson and S. LaBelle. Vehicle Character- 
 izations for Long Range Technology Comparisons, Draft Report, 
 Argonne Natl. Lab. (Argonne, IL), Mar. 1983, 145 pp.; available 
 upon request from Argonne Natl. Lab., Argonne, IL. 
 
 41. Mining Journal (London). A New Beginning. 1986 Min. 
 Annu. Rev., June 1986, p. 5. 
 
 42. National Academy of Sciences. Science and Technology — a 
 Five Year Outlook, W.H. Freeman and Co., San Francisco, 1979, 
 544 pp. 
 
 43. Paterson, P. (U.S. Dep. Energy). Private communication, 
 Apr. 1986; available upon request from R. Balazik, BuMines, 
 Washington, DC. 
 
 44. Persh, J. (U.S. Dep. Defense, Res. & En.). Private 
 communication, Nov. 1985; available upon request from B. Klein, 
 BuMines, Washington, DC. 
 
 45. Peters, H.-J. Material Changes Reflect U.S. Economy Car 
 Drive. Metal Bull. Monthly (London), Dec. 1985, pp. 13, 15. 
 
 46. Plastics in Building Construction. V. 6, No. 12, 1983, p. 3. 
 
 47. Clear Plastics Markets. V. 6, No. 1, 1982, p. 3. 
 
 48. Future U.S. Construction Will Use More Plas- 
 tics—New Report. V. 6, No. 3, 1983, p. 2. 
 
 49. New Study Says Plastics in U.S. Building Now 
 
 Mature. V. 8, No. 12, 1985, p. 2. 
 
 50. U.S. Manufacturers Continue To Profit From 
 
 Plastic Pipe. V. 3, No. 10, 1985, p. 2. 
 
 51. U.S. Vinyl Window Market Predicted To Double 
 
 by 1990. V. 8, No. 9, 1985, p. 2. 
 
 52. Vinyl Will Be the Most Widely Used Siding 
 
 Material by 1995. V. 8, No. 9, 1985, pp. 3-4. 
 
 53. Vinyl Windows Take Bigger Share of Aluminum, 
 
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 54. Predicasts, Inc. (Cleveland, OH). Plastics in Construction. 
 1985, 122 pp. 
 
 55. Port, O. Developments To Watch. Business Week, Nov. 11, 
 1985, p. 128. 
 
 56. Reed, J. (General Electric Co.). Private communication, 
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 Washington, DC. 
 
 57. Schottman, F. (U.S. BuMines). Private communication, 
 June 1986; available upon request from B. Klein, BuMines, 
 Washington, DC. 
 
 58. Shepard, P. (Plastic Pipe & Fittings Association). Private 
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 Figures of the U.S. Plastics Industry. Sept. 1986, 134 pp. 
 
 61. Sousa, L. (U.S. BuMines). Private communication, Jan. 
 1986; available upon request from R. Balazik, BuMines, 
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 62. Tenney, D.R., and H.B. Dexter. Advances in Composites 
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 B. Klein, BuMines, Washington, DC. 
 
 64. Tumazos, J. (Oppenheimer & Co.). Private communication, 
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 65. U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Admi- 
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 66. A Competitive Assessment of Selected Reinforced 
 
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 to 21-15, 22-1 to 22-11, 23-1 to 23-16. 
 
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17 
 
 APPENDIX.— DEFINITIONS AND BACKGROUND DISCUSSION OF POLYMERS AND 
 
 ADVANCED CERAMICS 
 
 Definitions of technical terms used in this report and 
 a description of the new materials industries examined 
 herein are presented below as background for the 
 preceding analyses. For this study, the materials industry 
 is defined as those commercial activities involved in the 
 design and production of substances used for the fabrica- 
 tion of all manufactured products. This report is focused 
 on two of the many new materials encompassed by the 
 advanced materials industry: polymers and ceramics. 
 
 POLYMERS AND POLYMER-BASED 
 COMPOSITES 
 
 Polymers, commonly known as "plastics" or "resins," 
 are synthesized materials (usually organic) that can be 
 molded at temperatures of only a few hundred degrees 
 Fahrenheit and can retain a given shape when cooled. 
 These materials are composed of large molecular chains 
 that commonly link atoms of carbon, hydrogen, and 
 oxygen, but also may contain other elements such as 
 silicon, nitrogen, and fluorine. In the broadest sense, 
 polymers include the more elastic rubbers. This paper, 
 however, focuses on polymers and excludes rubbers. 
 
 Among the polymers are the commodity plastics 
 (high-volume production, low unit value) and the en- 
 gineering or high-performance plastics (low-volume pro- 
 duction, high unit value). The engineering plastics have 
 greater strength and/or can withstand significantly 
 higher temperatures than the commodity plastics. 
 Another classification of plastics are the thermoplastics 
 and the thermosetting plastics or thermosets. Thermo- 
 plastics can be repeatedly softened and rehardened by 
 raising and lowering the temperature, respectively; 
 thermosets after hardening cannot be resoftened by 
 increasing the temperature. Resins refer to organic 
 liquids or solids that are themselves plastics and are the 
 building blocks of more complex plastics compounds. 
 
 A composite refers to the combination of a matrix, or 
 binding material, through which a different, reinforcing 
 material is distributed. Although these two materials 
 maintain separate identities, the composite formed by 
 them exhibits properties superior to those of both. Metals, 
 ceramics, and polymers are used to form the matrix and 
 the reinforcing materials of various composites. This 
 report is concerned with composites in which the matrix 
 material is plastic, and in a few cases where the 
 reinforcing material is plastic as well. The original and 
 best known composite is fiberglass, consisting of glass 
 reinforcing fibers and a plastic matrix. 
 
 Plastics recently have become the most widely used 
 material in the United States. On a volume basis, their 
 consumption now exceeds that of steel, copper, and 
 aluminum combined. Although once perceived as a 
 material only for cheap or shoddy goods, plastics have 
 vastly improved during the past decade and have captured 
 so many markets that they truly seem to be everywhere. 
 
 Cars are constructed of it, and boats and even 
 airplanes, to say nothing of computer hous- 
 ings and camera bodies and fishing rods and 
 watch cases and suitcases and cookware and 
 roller skates and toothpaste tubes. It has 
 replaced the glass in our spectacles, the 
 paper in our grocery bags, the wood in our 
 
 tennis rackets, the cotton in our clothing . . . 
 (etc). ... (It is used) from outer space to the 
 depths of the sea . . . (14Y 
 
 Table A-l shows the markets for plastics sales in the 
 United States during 1984 and highlights those sectors 
 where it is reasonably certain that plastics substituted for 
 metals and glass materials. Based on this table, it can be 
 assumed that at least 24 pet of plastics sold in the United 
 States currently are consumed in place of metals and glass 
 (primarily in the packaging and motor vehicle industries). 
 This is a conservative estimate because it does not include 
 demand in markets where there is uncertainty about the 
 types of material replaced by plastics (e.g., both wood and 
 metal are competitors of plastic in furniture manufactur- 
 ing). Analysis of each major market shown here with 
 significant identified competition between plastics and 
 metals or glass is provided in the analysis and conclusion 
 sections of this report. 
 
 Table A-1. — Major U.S. markets with significant competition 
 between plastics and metals or glass, 1985 
 
 DioeHr-e e'oi * Sales replacing 
 Market MM lb metals or glass ' 
 
 Transportation 1 ,989 90 
 
 Building and construction 10,038 43 
 
 Packaging 12,774 17 
 
 Electrical and electronic 2,659 (') 
 
 Furniture and furnishings 2,107 (') 
 
 Industrial machinery 364 90 
 
 Consumer and institutional 
 
 products 3,975 Q 
 
 Adhesives, inks, coatings 2,142 (') 
 
 Other 5,122 NA 
 
 Total or average 1 41,170 24 
 
 NA Not available. 
 
 'For some industries so many additional materials (wood, paper, textiles) 
 are competitors of plastics that no precise measure of market relationships 
 between plastics and metals or glass could be developed. Therefore, the 
 resulting 24-pct total share is a conservative estimate because it excludes 
 markets where substitution by plastics is displacing unknown quantities of 
 metals and glass. 
 
 Although the first synthetic plastics date back to the 
 1860's in the United States (and to the 1850's in Europe), 
 the most important U.S. developments in polymer science 
 have occurred in this century {60). The commercial 
 development of today's modern thermoplastics (polyvinyl 
 chloride, polyethylene, polystyrene, etc.) began in the 
 1930's (60). Shortages during World War II led to 
 increased demand for plastics as substitutes for materials 
 (such as natural rubber) and promoted polymer research 
 (60). During the next decade, large-scale production of 
 plastics reduced their costs dramatically and they began 
 to compete with traditional materials such as wood, paper, 
 metal, and glass. Production rates stagnated in the late 
 1960's, but there has been a resurgence of the plastics 
 industry during recent years due to rapid advances in 
 polymer technology, particularly the development of 
 polymer blends (analogous to alloys) with properties 
 vastly superior to those of their individual constituents 
 (61). Thus, plastics producers believe that they are 
 entering a new period of rapid growth. Studies indicate 
 that average annual growth in domestic sales of plastics 
 will be about 3 to 5 pet to 1990 and 4 pet thereafter to 1995 
 
 'Underlined numbers in parentheses refer to items in the list of 
 references preceding this appendix. 
 
18 
 
 (5, 49). However, growth rates as high as 25 pct/yr are 
 forecast in the 1990's for certain types of high- 
 performance polymers, such as reinforced plastics and 
 composites (12, 22). 
 
 Today, the plastics industry (SIC 2821 and 3079) is 
 comprised of more than 10,000 firms throughout the 
 United States with over 650,000 employees producing 
 resins, machinery, fabricated products, and molds (5). 
 Well over 10,000 varieties of plastic are marketed 
 domestically (14). Prices for these materials range from 
 less than a dollar per pound to hundreds and even 
 thousands of dollars per pound for more exotic composites 
 needed by the aerospace industry. The average price for 
 all plastics produced in 1984 was 43 cents per pound (60). 
 The value of industry shipments during that year was 
 over $40 billion. About half of this production was 
 accounted for by the six largest U.S. plastics producers 
 (Dow Chemical, Du Pont, Exxon, Mobil Oil, Union 
 Carbide, and Amoco) (60). 
 
 Oil and chemical corporations lead the list of major 
 domestic producers because the principal raw materials 
 for plastics are petrochemicals (ethylene, propylene, and 
 benzene) derived from petroleum. Petroleum will continue 
 to be the source of nonfuel plastic feedstocks even after its 
 use as a fuel begins to decline (42). In fact, oil and 
 feedstock import dependence is an important concern for 
 the U.S. polymer industry. Well into the future, other 
 sources of carbon compounds for polymers, particularly 
 coal, may replace petroleum; still later, plant matter may 
 be converted into plastics. Most of the necessary conver- 
 sion technology already exists for coal but not for 
 vegetable matter. The economic feasibility of such 
 conversion systems would depend on the scarcity of 
 petroleum as plastics demand increases. 
 
 The plastics industry also uses appreciable amounts 
 of nonfuel industrial minerals as fillers, extenders, 
 pigments and reinforcing agents in polymers and resins. 
 These minerals include talc, mica, feldspar, boron, soda 
 ash, and glass sand. Although their use is a boon for some 
 producers, these minerals account for less than 5 pet of 
 polymer materials, by weight. 
 
 Advanced ceramics are low- volume, high-unit- value 
 products that have been developed only during the last 30 
 yr. These new materials are unlike the common high- 
 volume, low-unit-value ceramic products of clay, glass, 
 brick and tile produced since ancient times. Advanced 
 ceramics are valued for their thermal, wear, and corrosion 
 resistance; electrical insulation properties; high magnetic 
 permeability; and special optical features (fiber optics is a 
 ceramic). These characteristics make advanced ceramics 
 potentially invaluable for use in high-performance en- 
 gines, machines, other devices, and electronic compo- 
 nents. Much of the attention given to advanced ceramics 
 in recent years concerns its potential for use in automobile 
 engines. Eventually these ceramics could act as substi- 
 tutes for cobalt and other critically needed metals in jet 
 aircraft engines, and thereby help reduce U.S. dependence 
 on strategic material imports (65). 
 
 Unfortunately, the chemical structure that provides 
 the superior properties cited above also imparts undesir- 
 able attributes, especially extreme brittleness that can 
 cause shattering with little or no warning. Moreover, the 
 costly and labor-intensive techniques used to fabricate 
 advanced ceramic products make them relatively expen- 
 sive. Consequently, substantial research is still necessary 
 before the inherent problems of ceramics will allow 
 significant replacement of metals. 
 
 The advanced ceramics industry currently encompas- 
 ses two principal activities — the production of electronic 
 components and the production of engineering products 
 and parts. Together, these two businesses had markets 
 totaling an estimated $5.1 billion in 1986 (65). At least 50 
 major U.S. firms are engaged in each activity (65). 
 
 Some documented forecasts of demand for advanced 
 ceramics are available. Future demand will depend 
 considerably on the degree of substitution that ceramics 
 attains in end uses such as electronics, cutting tools, and 
 heat engines. In a 1984 report, the Department of 
 Commerce estimated the projected shipments of advanced 
 ceramics shown in table A-2. 
 
 Table A-2. — Projected U.S. shipments of advanced ceramics, 
 by end use (1980 dollars) (65) 
 
 ADVANCED CERAMICS 
 
 Ceramics are materials composed of inorganic, non- 
 metallic powdered compounds that have been consolidated 
 by the application of high-temperature heat (65). These 
 compounds commonly include silicon and alumina, but 
 the high-technology ceramics examined in this study can 
 be composed of boron carbide, silicon carbide, silicon 
 nitride, beryllium oxide, magnesium oxide (often in 
 combination with other oxides), nonmetallic magnetics, 
 and ferroelectrics (69). 
 
 End use 
 
 1980 
 
 1990 
 
 2000 
 
 Electronics 
 
 Cutting tools 
 
 Wear parts 
 
 Heat engines 
 
 Other 
 
 Total 601 
 
 MMS 
 
 pet 
 
 MM$ 
 
 pd 
 
 MMS 
 
 pet 
 
 534 
 
 89 
 
 1.900 
 
 75 
 
 3.485 
 
 59 
 
 45 
 
 7.5 
 
 380 
 
 15 
 
 960 
 
 16 
 
 20 
 
 3 
 
 180 
 
 7 
 
 540 
 
 9 
 
 
 
 
 
 56 
 
 2 
 
 840 
 
 15 
 
 2 
 
 05 
 
 15 
 
 1 
 
 70 
 
 1 
 
 100 2.531 100 5.895 100 
 
 Discussions of expected applications for advanced 
 ceramics within specific industrial sectors are provided in 
 the "Industry Analyses and Forecasts" section of the main 
 text. 
 
 *U, S. GOVERNMENT" PRINTING OFFICE 
 
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