-G5 THL SITUATION IN 50UTHLA5TLRN LUROPL m m q AN ADDRESS DELIVERED by HENRY G. CROCKER, at the SEVENTH ANNUAL MEET- ING of the SOCIETY of AMERI- CAN WARS, COMMANDERY of the DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA, held at WASHINGTON, APRIL 30,1909. iss ^4-(^5" C7 [)()()K 1'Ki:si;nti:i) hy THL SITUATION IN 50UTHLA5TLRN LUROPL m m q JN ADDRESS DELIVERED by HENRY G. CROCKER, at the SEVENTH ANNUAL MEET- ING of the SOCIETY of AMERI- CAN WARS, COMMANDER Y of the DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA, held at WASHINGTON, APRIL 30,1909. WASHINGTON BYRON S. ADAMS 1909 Gift The Soeiaty 28Mv'09 The Situation in South- eastern Europe. Commander and Companions: It is with some diffidence that I rise, at the re- quest of our Commander, to occupy a part of your time this evening on a subject, the present situation in Southeastern Europe, that may appear not to touch the matters in which this Society is particu- larly interested. But if it were necessary to jus- tify inviting your attention to a subject of such pres- ent concern to the whole world, it is enough to say that any state of affairs that can possibly involve our country in war affects this Society closely. For the Society of American Wars holds this one grand distinction among its fellows : that while others look backward, each to a single war from which it draws its inspiration and to which it owes its members, our Societ}^ bases eligibility upon service in any war in which the United States has been or sliall he en- gaged. And so we alone, making no discrimina- tion between one war and another, look to the fu- ture as well as to the past. Why we make no dis- crimination between one war and another, was patly expressed b}^ President David Starr Jordan in his address some years ago at the first annual banquet of the California Commandery of this So- ciety, when he said "The men who defended our flag in one war or another were actuated by like feelings." What wars it will fall to the part of our country to wage is beyond our ken. But wars will come unless human nature the world over changes; and while the march of international arbitration ad- vances in measure with the progress of mutual in- terdependence of nations, there will arise cases of irreconcilably conflicting interests that must be left to the arbitrament of force. Universal peace is not yet emerged from the domain of poet's imagination and philosopher's speculation into the realm of reasoned and livable fact. The arbitration propaganda of recent years was induced by the conviction that war is generally a losing game even for the victor. This conviction has been reached only at a period in the world's his- tory when the chances of profit through victory have dwindled to a very small percentage. In truth, the wars of the less recent past have often been calamitous for all concerned, but there was generally a chance, exaggerated by fervor of pa- triotism into expectation, of profit through stripping an overthrown enemy of his valuables. The last century with its brilliant achievements in science, bringing into close touch peoples remote in distance, has seen such an interweaving of inter- ests — interests that would suffer in time of war, no matter who wins the battle — that we may expect no war will be permitted unless great and vital na- tional issues are involved. Issues and interests there are, however, or may be, which outweigh all ordinary considerations, and for which the nation will rise to struggle. Suppose, diplo- macy failing, a European power should undertake to extend its sovereignty along the Caribbean coast of South America, would we arbitrate or fight? What would there be to arbitrate? Suppose an Asiatic power should demand the repeal of some of our exclusion or other legislation that we con- sider necessar}^ to maintain the standard of living and hence the civilization of the American laborer? Would we arbitrate? Suppose, as a consequence of a European war, Britain should be maimed and that her adversary should endeavor to despoil her of maritime Canada, what would we do? And can we not imagine circumstances in which we would come to England's aid even if her new-world possessions were not attacked? These are not matters susceptible of arbitration. And so long as increase of population brings expan- sion in its train, so long will there be danger of armed conflict. And so it is that we, who look to the future as well as to the past, feel concerned with every shifting change in the relations of nations, for we know not when we may be actively involved. It is Southeastern Europe that has been threaten- ing the world's peace during the past year. The lingering empire of the Sick Man of Europe has again been the object of thmsts that have brought the physician powers to interpose their soothing ser- vices to postpone at least impending dissolution. The famous Near Eastern Question is on the minds of European statesmen and no one knows how his- tory will answer it. The Balkan Question is a problem quite as knotty, and the Macedonian Ques- tion, though at present receiving less attention, has in recent years been the chief cause of worry. To define these three questions, so intunately related to one another that a single war like the Russo- Turkish war of 1877-8 might solve all three at once, it may be said: Eirst, that the Near Eastern question has to do with the fate of Turkey in Eu- rope. Shall the Turk continue to rule in Europe in greater or less measure ? — and which shall be the power or powers to succeed to the sovereignty of territory that may be relinquished there by him? The Balkan question asks, what is to be the future of the young nations that have been carved from the quondam domain of Turkey? Is the sover- eignty of any of them merely in transit to coalesce with that of some powerful neighbor? or will they rather crowd out the retreating Turk? And when we speak of the Macedonian question, we seek eradication of the misgovernment by the Turk of the Christian population in the three vilayets, Salonica, Kossovo, and Monastir, where the pow- ers have time and again sought to relieve the distress of their coreligionists. These, however, it must be said, are victims not only of the Moslems but of themselves; for in all this country the Christians, who make a veiy heterogeneous majority of the whole population of seventy-five persons to the square mile, are of various races and various creeds, each bent upon proseMizing or crippling the others in the hope of predominating and ultimately secur- ing autonomy for a government of its own. And upon this strife the Turk looks with com- placency, while wringing out his iniquitous taxes. A modification of this last phrase is, however, due the government of the Young Turks, instituted last July. The revolution of that month was a pa- triotic movement undertaken to arrest the decay of the Ottoman power in Europe, and, immediately after the Sultan was forced to restore the Constitu- tion of 1876, the new government took measures to improve the intolerable conditions in Macedonia, well perceiving that upon doing so depends the re- tention of sovereignty there. It is likely, too, that the evident policy of Austria under the guidance of Baron d'Aehrenthal to extend her sphere of in- fluence by means of railways towards the Aegean Sea hastened heroic action by the Young Turks. Barely had the new regime at Constantinople ad- dressed itself to the gigantic task of regenerating the Empire when neighboring nations which had been waiting for ripe fruit to fall shook the tree and gathered the ripest. On October 5 last, Fer- dinand, Prince of Bulgaria, proclaimed the inde- pendence of Bulgaria and Eastern Roumelia, and two days later Austria-Hungary extended her sov- ereignty over Bosnia and Herzegovina. Each of these acts was a casus belli. By the treaty signed at Berlin, July 13, 1878, Bulgaria had been constituted an autonomous and tributary principality under the sovereignty of Tur- key. The treaty provided that the prince of Bul- garia should be freely elected by the population and confirmed by Turkey, with the consent of the pow- ers; that Bulgaria should pay annual tribute to Turkey and should bear a portion of the Turkish public debt. The same treaty provided that East- 10 em Koumelia should remain subject to the direct po- litical and military authority of Turkey while re- taining administrative autonomy. The position of Eastern Roumelia was altered by an agreement signed at Constantinople, April 5, 1886, by Great Britain, France, Germany, Russia, Austria-Hun- gSLYV, Italy and Turkey, whereby it was provided that the office of governor-general of the province created by Article XVII of the Berlin treaty should be vested in the Prince of Bulgaria. As Bulgaria has never paid the tribute due to Turkey under Ar- ticle IX of the Berlin treaty, nor borne any share of the Ottoman debt, and as Eastern Boumelia has not done much better, Bulgaria's independence has cost Turkey only prestige. At any rate the Young Turk government felt unable to do more than pro- test to the Powers, and has recently accepted, through Russia as intermediaiy, a sum of money from Bulgaria for her railways interests. Still less could Turkey do aught in the Bosnian affair, and liere, too, she accepts money for her real property estates in the annexed provinces. These provinces had been confided bv the Berlin treatv to the ad- 11 ministration of Austria-Hungary, and Turkish rule was but nominal. Taking advantage of the action of Bulgaria and Austria-Hungary, and within a week thereafter, on October 12, the chamber of Crete, convoked in extraordinary^ session, was opened by the president of the government in the name of the King of Greece, and union with Greece was foimally voted. The next day the chamber elected a committee en- trusted with the task of governing the island in the name of the King of Greece and according to Greek laws, to be put in force by decrees, the power of the committee to end when Greece assumes administra- tion. The government of Greece, however, promptty disavowed any responsibility for these events, and has performed no act looking towards assumption of the administration of Crete. Al- though Crete is subject to the suzerainty of Turkey, she pays no tribute and is an autonomous state. The High Commissioner of the protecting powers is a Greek, and Greek officers have the direction of the gendarmerie and militia. What change in the status of Crete will be pemiitted by the Powers re- 12 mains for settlement when the present turbulence has subsided. By far the most serious menace, however, to in- ternational peace has lain in the attitude of Servia towards Austria-Hungary's annexation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. On the very day of Emperor Francis Joseph's proclamation of annexation, Ser- via issued a counter proclamation protesting to the powers, and a royal ukase convoked their national assembly, the skupshtina, in extraordinary session. The great ferment in Servia is explained by the fact that she is the real loser while Turke}^ is only the technical loser. Servia has no seaboard; with an area less than half that of Virginia and a popula- tion fifty per cent greater and increasing, crowded on the north, east and south between Hungary, Bul- garia and Turkey, she sees the neighboring prov- inces on the west with a population of her own race and largely of her own faith finally disappear within the maw of the dual monarchy. The time had come, Servia thought, to strike. Delay meant the assimilation of the Bosnian Serbs by Austria-Hungary. The commercial despotism 13 that the latter country has exercised over Servia be- fore and after she checkmated Servia' s effort to form a customs union with Bulgaria in 1906 had kept the Serbs on the qui vive for opportunity. National aspirations glowed brightly. All Serbs should be Servians. Russia, France and Great Britain were known to be displeased with the manner of the an- nexation. Perhaps assistance would come from without. War supplies were hurried, troops aug- mented. But Austria saw, and mobilized. She demanded of Servia complete acquiescence in the annexation and disbandment of the new levies. Notes passed between the chancelleries, Eussia be- ing Servia' s mentor. Servia did not yield enough. Austria insisted. And here Geimany, on behalf of her ally, obtained from Russia immediate accept- ance of the new status of Bosnia and Herzegovina. This, then, was the sequel of the Kaiser's famous telegram of April, 1906, to the Austrian minister for foreign affairs, in which he expressed thanks for Austria's support at the Algesiras conference on Moroccan affairs, describing it as "a fine deed of a true-hearted ally," and adding: "You have proved 14 yourself to be a brilliant second on the duelling ground, and you may be certain of similar service in similar case from me, also." With Russian support withdrawn, Servia, acting on the representations of all the great powers, yielded without reserve on the last day of March. She elected not to pass through the same jaws. Ger- many has been criticised for her action, but it may have saved Servia. A little later, Servia might not have been able by abject submission to withdraw unscathed. As it is, Servia has lost her commer- cial treaty with the customer of 90 per cent of her exports. When a new one is concluded, it is likely to be a less favorable one. The Crown Prince, an enemy to Austria, has renounced his right of suc- cession and it is rumored that the King will abdi- cate. Will Servia, so unfavorably situated, ever be able to shake free from the forces that appear to be preparing her to follow Bosnia? or can she emulate Bulgaria, once so subsei^ient to Russia? A few days after the subsidence of Servia the dip- lomatic notes exchanged between Italy and Monte- negro and Montenegro and Austria-Hungary were 15 published. The Montenegrins belong almost en- tirely to the Serb branch of the Slav race and though their number is fewer than the population of this city they are fearless and plucky in the face of overwhelming odds. Last October they were quarreling with Servia, but at the Austrian coup the hatchet was buried, and Montenegro on October 7, the date of Servia's protest to the powers, is- sued a proclamation declaring that she would no longer be bound by Article XXIX of the Berlin treaty, and on December 14 she began to tax im- ports from Austria at the maximum tariff. Unlike Servia, Montenegro has gained something. Ar- ticle XXIX of the Berlin treaty contains man}^ provisions restrictive of Montenegro's sovereignty, such as forbidding it ships of war and a flag of war and closing all Montenegrin waters to all ships of war. By the recent understanding, all these re- strictions are abolished except one, namely, that Antivari shall retain the character of a commercial port; that no constructions shall be erected there which could change it into a war port. During the six months it has taken to adjust and 16 compose the relations of the nations ah'eady men- tioned, Turkey has been experiencing the novel ex- citement of parliamentary rule, which has just cul- minated in the Army's taking matters from the politicians into its own hands. The Army is imbued with the principles of the committee of union and progress. This committee was formed in Paris in 1895 by Turkish political refugees and fused with another group of young Turks at Salonica. Branch groups were established at Constantinople, Smyrna, Uskub, Monastir, and other places. It is interest- ing to note that no group had a chief, as a measure of precaution to avoid exposing members to pun- ishment; nevertheless this did not preclude a re- markable unity of action. The committee first showed its work in public in 1896 at the time of the Armenian massacres, when it placarded Constanti- nople, charging the Sultan with being responsible for the venality of public ofiicers and all the troubles of the times, and recommended as a remedy a con- stitution based on principles of union and equality for all subjects of the Sultan. In spite of the fact that the more prominent persons of the Young Turk 17 party were imprisoned or exiled, the propaganda was systematically organized and won over easily the army officers of inferior rank, who received ridiculously small salaries, very irregularly paid, and who saw the lavish emoluments of the higher places obtained through favoritism alone. The revolution of last July was a Moslem revolution against the despotic rule of favorites, with its in- tolerable system of espionage, its forced gifts and its place buying. The restoration of the Constitution was followed by numerous reforms. Xew men were called to al- most all the important posts. There has been free- dom of press, travel, expression and worship. Mili- tary reorganization was undertaken, and the dis- cipline and efficiency of the Turkish army has al- ready been vastly improved. In Macedonia the struggle of the bands has given place to reconcilia- tion at least apparent. A parliament was opened December 17. The subsequent vicissitudes of parties it is unnecessary to follow. Suffice it to say that the army has now demonstrated its will that the principles of the committee of union and prog- ress shall prevail. 18 And what of the future? Can the Turks, who have ever shown incapacity to govern a Christian population, maintain peace in Macedonia? Can they with the seram of occidentalism resuscitate the body politic? If so, the Macedonian question is solved and the Near Eastern question indefinitely postponed until ambitious neighbors can force an issue. Of these neighbors, Austria-Hungary and Bulgaria are the most dangerous. Austria, it has frequently been predicted, will, at the death of Emperor Francis Joseph, break up into small states. But the recent events show a virilit}^ incompatible with that supposition. Inter- nally the country is prosperous and foreign policy under the energetic management of Baron d'Aeh- renthal has tended strongly to commercial and rail- road expansion towards the Balkans. The absorp- tion of the annexed provinces has been effected naturally as the result of thirty years of excellent administration. During that period Bosnia and Herzegovina have enjoyed prosperity and order greatly in contrast with affairs in Macedonia and Servia. Thus pushing her commercial influence 19 towards the Aegean Sea and in the role of natural protector of Eoman Catholics, it is not unlikely that any general fracas would establish her at Salonica. But Bulgaria, too, is ambitious to reach the Aegean. By the treaty of San Stefano of March, 1878, which was superseded by the Berlin treaty, Bulgaria was to extend from the Danube to the Aegean and from the Black Sea to the Black Drin. This Big Bulgaria remains the aspiration of all Bul- gars and the bogey of all non-Bulgar races in the Balkans. Bulgars predominate in much of Mace- donia and the pull on the little nation is continuous. Moreover, the Bulgarians are brave, persevering, thrifty and steady. They may some day fasten a quarrel on Turkey and solve the Eastern Question by occupation of Constantinople. Contingencies are so numerous as to permit of little but conjecture. The Young Turks may fail of their expectations in Europe, or they may be weakened by reactionaiy mutiny in Asia. England intrenched in Egypt could bear even with Russia at Constantinople ; but Russia's influence is past in that direction, as Bul- garia has long ago outgrown her tutelage. It is 20 possible that the Turk may retain Constantinople while surrendering the rest of his European posses- sions. In case of a pacific partition, it would seem that Bulgaria and Austria would get the major part, with concessions to Greece and perhaps to the Albanians and Montenegrins; if the god of war should decide, which is improbable unless the goad of insult is used, for to the western powers the game would not be worth the candle, I must leave it to you gentlemen whose special study is war to make the guess.