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Causes and Consequences 
 
 of the 
 
 War of 1914 
 
 By 
 HOWARD PITCHER OKIE 
 
 Member of the Bar of the Supreme Court of New York 
 
 and of the Honorable Society of 
 
 Lincolns Inn (Eng.) 
 
 ILLUSTRATED BY SEVEN MAPS 
 
 1914 
 
 THE WASHINGTON PUBLISHING COMPANY 
 
 MUNSEY BUILDING 
 WASHINGTON, D. C, U. S. A. 
 

 Copyright, 1914 
 
 BY 
 
 Howard Pitcher Okie 
 
 ^National Capital Press, Inc. 
 
 Book Manufacturers 
 
 Washington, D. C. 
 
 OCT 30 i 9 14 
 
 CU388181 
 
 d.iT* 
 
TABLE OF CONTENTS 
 
 Chapter. Page 
 
 I. Introductory 7 
 
 II. Causes of the War 18 
 
 III. The Great Powers Are Involved.... 30 
 
 IV. England's Intervention 33 
 
 V. Germany's Side of the Controversy 64 
 
 VI. England's Declaration of War 70 
 
 VII. England's Colonies 84 
 
 VIII. Land Forces 86 
 
 IX. The Sea Power 92 
 
 X. Financial Resources of the Great 
 
 Powers 96 
 
 XL Food Supplies of the Belligerent 
 
 Powers 107 
 
 XII. Consequences of the War 110 
 
 Appendix 121 
 
INDEX TO MAPS 
 
 Page. 
 
 Map of Europe Infold 
 
 Geographical Distribution of Teutons and 
 
 Slavs 25 
 
 Servia Before and After the Balkan War 
 
 (2 Maps) 27 
 
 The German Colonies. : 112 
 
 Map of Poland Before Dismemberment 115 
 
 Races in Austria-Hungary 118 
 
CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF 
 THE WAR OF 1914 
 
 CHAPTER I 
 
 INTRODUCTORY 
 
 As this book goes to the press, Belgium, the 
 importance of whose existence as a factor in the 
 maintenance of European peace can not be over- 
 estimated, is in the possession of Germany. If this 
 occupation is continued, it means that forty miles 
 instead of three hundred and forty miles will sep- 
 arate Germany from England, and that the little 
 island will, while that condition continues, be in 
 danger of being over-run by the invading forces 
 of her Teuton neighbor. England is not adapted 
 to the permanent maintenance of a large body of 
 regular troops. Such a burden would impose an 
 impossible drain upon her industrial life. She has 
 regarded distance from her most powerful conti- 
 nental rival as one of two indispensable attributes 
 of safety; her fleet was the other.- No treaty with 
 Belgium or France had to be invoked to spur 
 Britain on to war when the littoral of the English 
 Channel was menaced by German occupation. 
 Self-preservation caused her, first, to endeavor to 
 have Germany regard the neutrality of Belgium 
 
8 Causes and Consequences 
 
 as inviolate and to confine her operations in France 
 to the southern and central provinces, and, second, 
 when such efforts had failed to enter upon this 
 battle for her very existence. 
 
 A citizen of another state may assume that 
 England has guaged her position correctly; if she 
 has — if the oft expressed forebodings of Lord 
 Roberts find fulfilment — then England, in spite 
 of all her glorious achievements in the cause of 
 liberty and human advancement; the abolition of 
 slavery in her own colonies by honorable pur- 
 chase not by a fratricidal war; her suppresion of 
 the slave trade in the Atlantic, and of piracy in 
 the Yellow Seas; her noble work in Egypt, where 
 millions have cause to bless her for daily bread; 
 her unselfish exercise of her unpaid and thankless 
 task as "policeman of the world;" in spite of all 
 these works — and many others — this champion of 
 the oppressed and exemplar of popular liberty may 
 be effaced from the political map of the World. 
 This once solid rock of human liberty may yet 
 be hurled into outer space and darkness to find 
 her last affinities in silence and in cold. 
 
 The facts underlying this war are certain. 
 Probably, never before has there been so little 
 conflict in regard to the statement of premises. 
 Hence, from the diplomatic correspondence which 
 I have inserted in this volumn, in extenso, one 
 
of the War of 1914 9 
 
 reading it carefully, may be in a position of 
 absolute knowledge. The opposing nations have 
 drawn (as you or I may draw) different conclu- 
 sions from the same facts. For example, Russia 
 and Germany are agreed that Russia mobilized 
 her troops near the German frontier during the 
 course of negotiations. The agreement stops 
 there. Russia contends that her mobilization 
 was not threatening in character, but a purely 
 defensive measure dictated only by prudence; 
 that the means of transportation within her vast 
 empire were not so adequate as those possessed by 
 her western neighbors and she could not — if 
 avoidable — take an even start with them. Ger- 
 many took an entirely different view of Russia's 
 action and made that a cause of war which may 
 have been only a legitimate exercise of prevision 
 and caution. 
 
 It is certain that Germany and England desired 
 to keep the peace with each other; but, some one 
 country blundered; to place the responsibility, one 
 must know what transpired between the several 
 countries in the shape of official communications 
 exchanged between their accredited representatives. 
 One who is not disposed to take the trouble in- 
 volved in the acquisition of this knowledge should 
 at least keep out of the argument. Here is an 
 illustration: In the left hand column below is 
 
10 
 
 Causes and Consequences 
 
 Mr. Bernard Shaw's criticism of his government. 
 In the column parallel to it is an excerpt from 
 official documents which were readily available to 
 Mr. Shaw when he wrote his diatribe. 
 
 From an article by Mr. Bernard 
 Shaw appearing in the American 
 Press, September 6, 1914: 
 
 "Had the government or the 
 labor party had a real modern 
 foreign policy, Mr. Asquith might 
 have said fearlessly to Prussian 
 militarism: 'If you attempt to 
 smash France, we two will smash 
 you if we can. But if you will 
 drop your mailed fist nonsense and 
 be neighborly, we will guarantee 
 you against Russia just as heartily 
 as we now guarantee France 
 against you.' Can it be doubted 
 that if this had been said reso- 
 lutely, and with the vigorous sup- 
 port of all sections of the house, 
 Potsdam would have thought 
 twice and thrice before declaring 
 war?" 
 
 Extract from a letter from Sir 
 Edward Grey to Sir William 
 Goschen (Ambassador to Ger- 
 many), dated July 29, 1914: 
 
 "I said to the German Ambas- 
 sador (in London), this morning 
 that if Germany could get any 
 reasonable proposal put forward 
 which made it clear that Germany 
 and Austria were striving to pre- 
 serve European peace, and that 
 Russia and France would be un- 
 reasonable if they rejected it, / 
 would support it at St. Petersburg 
 and Paris, and go the length of 
 saying that if Russia and France 
 would not accept it his Majesty's 
 Government would have nothing 
 more to do with the consequence, 
 but otherwise, I told German 
 Ambassador that if France be- 
 came involved we should be 
 drawn in. (Vide p. 44.) 
 
 The language in the right hand column is 
 simply a paraphrase of Mr. Shaw's proposition, 
 with only those inevitable differences which dis- 
 tinguish the language of statecraft from that of 
 popular journalism. 
 
 It was not the original purpose of the author to 
 
of the War of 1914 11 
 
 touch upon the subject of the interdependence of 
 nations with similar ideals of human liberty; but, 
 the fact that an active anti-English propaganda 
 is now being carried on in the United States is 
 irresistibly provocative. 
 
 Within a clearly defined limit the advocacy of 
 the German cause in America is decidedly useful. 
 It clears away numerous doubts and shows sharply 
 and clearly the totally different aspects of the 
 moral obligations of one who is a citizen of a free 
 country from those of one who acknowledges the 
 sovereignty of another who rules by "divine right." 
 
 The "case for Germany'' in this country has 
 been entrusted to able hands; to men who have 
 distinguished themselves in science, arms, com- 
 merce and journalism. That the arguments put 
 forth by them are puerile in the extreme is not 
 sufficient to overcome a presumption of their 
 wisdom which rests upon their past performances 
 in their respective fields of employment. 
 
 It does, however, have the disquieting effect of 
 making us believe that certain distinguished sci- 
 entists, soldiers, men of affairs and journalists 
 regard us as fools. 
 
 Take a concrete instance of this advocacy. In 
 a recent message from Mr. Herman Ridder, which 
 appeared originally in his paper, the New Yorker 
 Staats-Zeitung, but which has been reprinted in the 
 
12 Causes and Consequences 
 
 American papers with an unanimity that is wonder- 
 ful in view of the fact that he describes them 
 as an "English-tainted press;" he seeks to revive 
 to Germany's advantage the quarrel which the 
 American Colonies had with the "mother country" 
 some hundred and fifty years ago. 
 
 The people of the United States have not brooded 
 over that quarrel. Their time has been too fully 
 occupied with other things; but, as the Teutonic 
 protagonists seem to think that it would be well 
 for their cause, let us go back to our school days. 
 
 In the last half of the eighteenth century the 
 British throne was occupied by King George, a 
 fat, foolish, German Prince, the third of the 
 Hanover line. He succeeded his grandfather, 
 George the Second, a German who never be- 
 came sufficiently English to speak that lan- 
 guage; the mother of George the Third was a 
 German woman, the Princess Augusta, daughter 
 of the Duke of Saxe-Coburg-Gotha; at the period 
 during which he reigned, kings governed in Eng- 
 land, as they do today in Germany, by "divine 
 right," and, when George, in his sublime egotism 
 and folly, pursued an oppressive course toward 
 the handful of his subjects then forming the 
 American Colonies, the English people who sub- 
 scribed to his belief in- kingly infallibility had no 
 course but to acquiesce, save that now and again 
 
of the War of 1914 13 
 
 a Pitt or a Burke gave ineffectual tongue in the 
 House of Commons to the British conscience which 
 had no adequate means to express itself at the 
 polls. When in the course of his war against the 
 American colonies it seemed necessary to George 
 the Third to utilize the services of paid assassins to 
 devastate the hearths and homes of those of whom 
 he was the sworn protector, he turned to his own — 
 really his own — country, Germany, and thousands 
 of professional murderers were readily recruited to 
 wage a merciless war upon a people with whom 
 they had no quarrel — of whose very existence they 
 had been previously ignorant. 
 
 There are old men alive today in New Jersey 
 who can tell tales that came first-hand from their 
 grandfather's lips of atrocities committed by the 
 Hessians which will reflect in many details the 
 cruelties inflicted by the German troops upon the 
 peace-loving Belgians of this very day, whose 
 only crime is that they put their national honor 
 above an ignoble love of peace. 
 
 The foregoing is not a pretty or pleasant story. 
 The people of this country were glad to forget 
 the whole horrible affair of the German invasion 
 of America. That an intelligent man should de- 
 liberately recall it, in the expressed hope that it 
 would advance Germany in the sympathies of the 
 American people, is surprising. It is an extreme 
 instance of unwise advocacy. 
 
14 Causes and Consequences 
 
 When the never-robust mind of George the 
 Third gave away to utter madness, there was, in 
 England, born the new era of national — as dis- 
 tinguished from individual — responsibility. From 
 the days of the Regency, England has had no 
 trouble with her Colonies; she also entered, at 
 that eventful period, upon an era of international 
 peace (since unbroken upon the continent of 
 Europe save by the Crimean War), that was un- 
 exampled during her previous life under kings 
 who ruled as well as reigned and which continued 
 down to that night of the 3rd of August, 1914, when 
 the German eagles entered the peaceful plains and 
 villages of Belgium. 
 
 Again; the bugbear of Pan-Slavism is invoked 
 to frighten us — vicariously. It would seem that 
 those engaged in advocating Germany's cause in 
 America must realize that we are a highly educated 
 people. Why address to us arguments which could 
 only appeal to — say, the inhabitants of Western 
 China — Thibet? When have "a people" destroyed 
 the world's peace? 
 
 France did not devastate Europe during the 
 period of the Napoleonic wars. Napoleon, in his 
 vain attempt to establish "a dynasty" led his 
 polyglot army for the glory of the house of Bona- 
 parte, not for the peculiar aggrandisement of the 
 French. The peace of the world has no reason to 
 
of the War of 1914 15 
 
 fear the Teutons, except they be the blind instru- 
 ment of a Hohenzollern or a Hapsburg. The erec- 
 tion of a great Slav Empire south and east of Prus- 
 sia may retard the expression of the ambition of 
 an individual ruler to the north and west. It will 
 not stop human progress. We have no fear of 
 Demos; it is Ego, with his murderous cult of the 
 unimportance of the masses and of the suprem- 
 acy of the individual when the progress of a 
 kingly ruler is concerned, from whom we rush to 
 shield ourselves. If the new Slav state will be used 
 disastrously to further the personal ambitions of 
 Nicholas of Russia and other wars result, our 
 tears will be shed for suffering humanity, not 
 because of the diminishing of the glory of the other 
 ruling European house. 
 
 One other instance will suffice to show the total 
 inability of the adherent of military autocracy as 
 represented by the supporters of Germany in this 
 war, to understand the view point of the American. 
 
 England is attacked because when in occupation 
 of India she punished certain of those responsible 
 for the "black hole of Calcutta" with instantane- 
 ous death. They were fastened to the mouths of 
 cannons and blown to pieces. Civilization has 
 made much progress since then, but is yet unable 
 to suggest a death more painless and swift. If 
 men of the Southern States of America had to 
 
16 Causes and Consequences 
 
 avenge the murderers and ravishers of their wives 
 and daughters as did the British officials who de- 
 vised this punishment, it would have taken a more 
 unpleasant form. But, in order to understand 
 the German view, we must not forget that the 
 victims of the sepoys were largely of the civilian 
 class, and were innocent of any provocation. If 
 in defense of hearth and home an Indian had fired 
 upon an invading soldier, in a German uniform, 
 it would no doubt, from a German standpoint, 
 have been eminently proper for him to receive 
 a punishment no more merciful than that which 
 the Germans visited upon the civilian defenders 
 of Louvaine.* 
 
 This sacro-sanctity of the man in uniform exists 
 in the German mind only where the uniform of 
 the Kaiser is concerned. That is wholly good, so 
 far as it goes. 
 
 During the Boer War, General Kronje and his 
 laagers were surrounded and some thousands of 
 active combatants, none of whom wore uniforms, 
 surrendered to the British. Suppose they had been 
 shot out of hand, as were the civilian defenders of 
 Belgian and French towns, what a howl of protest 
 would have gone up from Germany! And Ger- 
 many would have been right. 
 
 In such a wise the spokesmen of Germany's 
 
 * See note p. 124. 
 
of the War of 1914 17 
 
 cause in this country have spoken the last word in 
 foolish advocacy, but even had they spoken "with 
 the tongues of angels" they have chosen the wrong 
 forum. If they would truly serve Germany, 
 Potsdam, not New York, should be the auditorium 
 of their eloquence — incidentally it might be the 
 scene of their martyrdom. Let them dissuade 
 official Germany from the policy of laying mines 
 in the open sea to the hazard of neutral shipping; 
 from their course of treating heroic civic defenders 
 as malefactors; from dropping bombs from a 
 height safe to the avialur, upon cosmopolitan 
 cities like Antwerp and Paris, and, if they are 
 successful, they will have rendered Germany a 
 real and substantial service. 
 
18 Causes and Consequences 
 
 CHAPTER II 
 CAUSES OF THE WAR 
 
 From the day upon which Germany rejected 
 the offer of Mr. Winston Churchill (the First Lord 
 of the British Admiralty), to enter into a truce, 
 during which the struggle between the two coun- 
 tries for superiority of naval armament would be 
 suspended,* war between England and Germany 
 has been imminent. The strain upon the two coun- 
 tries engaged in the unprofitable rivalry had been 
 intolerable. The steadily increasing burden fell 
 upon all, and was not made the less wearisome by 
 the slightest prospect of relief. Heavy land and 
 income taxes were evolved in England and the 
 German chancellor was compelled to make a 
 
 * Addressing the House of Commons upon the Naval 
 Estimates, March 18, 1912, Mr. Churchill said: "It is 
 clear that this principle could be varied to suit the circum- 
 stances. Let me make it clear, however, that any retardation 
 or reduction in German construction within certain limits 
 will be promptly followed here, as soon as it is apparent, by 
 large and fully proportionate reduction. For instance, if 
 Germany likes to drop out any one, or even two, of these 
 dreadnaughts (battleships) from her annual quotas and keep 
 her money in her own pocket for the enjoyment of her own 
 people and for the development of her own prosperity, we 
 will at once, in the absence of any dangerous development 
 elsewhere and not now foreseen, drop out our correspond- 
 ing quota. All slowing down by Germany will be accom- 
 panied, naturally on a larger scale by us." 
 
of the War of 1914 19 
 
 direct levy, not only upon income, but upon the 
 capital of each individual. 
 
 Naval and military rivalry has been the real and 
 underlying cause of the Anglo-German conflict. 
 Still it is profitable to know the proximate, or im- 
 mediate causes of the war, and from them to de- 
 termine, each for himself, the responsibility of 
 those to whom, by birth or popular choice, have 
 been committed the solemn duties of safeguarding 
 the welfare of those men, women and children suf- 
 fering in this calamitous hour, the awful, the un- 
 speakable horrors of war. 
 
 International law is written in treaties and "con- 
 ventions . ' ' They embody provisions , which in their 
 multiplicity, in the old world, at least, provide a 
 rule of conduct for almost every condition arising 
 in inter-state relations. Among the most important 
 of these sources of the organic law of Europe is 
 that known as the Treaty of Berlin. That treaty 
 was promulgated in 1878, at the close of Austro- 
 Turkish war. The provisions directly related to 
 this war of 1914 were: 
 
 1. The creation of a vassal state within the 
 territorial limits now known as Bulgaria, with the 
 right to the inhabitants to "freely elect" their 
 own ' "prince." The suzerain power was Turkey, 
 who was empowered to collect a yearly tribute and 
 an annual contribution to the Ottoman national 
 
20 Causes and Consequences 
 
 debt. Neither of these obligations were ever met 
 in any degree. 
 
 2. The two Turkish provinces of Bosnia and 
 Herzegovina were taken from Turkish control 
 and put in the custody of Austria, with a right in 
 the dual monarchy of "military occupancy and 
 administration. ' ' 
 
 The latter clause of the treaty turned over to 
 Austrian stewardship the domestic affairs of nearly 
 two million people of Servian stock, for the major 
 part adherents of the orthodox Greek Church ; the 
 state religion of Austria is Roman Catholic. 
 
 Contemporaneously with the Berlin treaty, 
 Austria executed and delivered to Turkey a secret 
 protocol, wherein she declared that her occupa- 
 tion of the two surrendered provinces would be 
 transient and that sooner or later, full Turkish 
 sovereignty would be restored. The Berlin Treaty 
 made no change in the status of the individual 
 citizen of the two provinces and conferred none of 
 the rights or obligations of personal sovereignty 
 upon the Austrian Emperor and the degree of that 
 monarch's suzerainty was jealously watched by 
 Russia, acting as the chief protector of the ad- 
 herents of the State Church of Russia. 
 
 In spite of the fact that Austria's administration 
 of Bosnian affairs was immeasurably better than 
 that which had been inflicted upon the inhabi- 
 
of the War of 1914 21 
 
 tants by Turkey, the population have never ac- 
 quiesced in the Austrian domination. Their politi- 
 cal hopes looked to a complete political and 
 social amalgamation of all the Balkan Serbs, 
 those of Southern Austria (where, previous to 
 the last Balkan War, there were more Serbs 
 than in Servia), Montenegro, Roumelia, Bulgaria, 
 Roumania, and Servia proper. The Servian am- 
 bition has been to erect from these peoples, in the 
 southeast of Europe, a mighty Slavonic Empire 
 under the benevolent tutelage and protection of 
 Russia. This project was made rather more dif- 
 ficult of realization by the transfer of Bosnia and 
 Herzegovina from the cruel, but uncertain grasp 
 of Turkey to the firmer clutch of the Austro- 
 Hungarian Empire, with its implacable opposition 
 to the construction of another empire which would 
 overshadow its northern neighbor in importance 
 and power.* 
 
 Austria's opposition to the scheme of a Slav em- 
 pire was expressed in several ways. Within her own 
 dominion she relentlessly pursued the political plot- 
 ters working for Austria dismemberment. When 
 opportunity seemed present she acquired absolute 
 sovereignty over additional territory to her south 
 and by the well known methods of diplomacy 
 sought to keep the petty Balkan States divided 
 
 i^J* See note p. 128. 
 
22 Causes and Consequences 
 
 and one or more of them in friendly relationship 
 with herself. It is apparent that Turkey was in 
 this behalf an important ally of Austria, and this 
 will account for the extraordinary interest in the 
 material welfare of old Turkey shown by Ger- 
 many, who very recently, has openly declared 
 that the Teutonic civilization of Western Europe 
 is menaced by the growing strength, resulting from 
 the organization and extraneous alliances of the 
 Slavonic peoples. 
 
 The term "Slav" etymologically means a mem- 
 ber of an ethnological division. In its popular use 
 it means an adherent of the Greek or "orthodox" 
 Church. 
 
 The "Manchester Guardian" (Eng.), in a recent 
 issue says: "Russia is very often called 'the pro- 
 tector of the Slavs,' but the phrase is one of those 
 which people go on repeating without considering 
 whether it is right or wrong. Russia may justly be 
 called the protector of the orthodox, but to give 
 her the title of protector of the Slavs is only partly 
 true. The Poles are Slavs, and they exceed in 
 number the entire population of the Balkan 
 peninsula, yet Russia has consistently oppressed 
 them. The Bohemians are also Slavs, and although 
 a few Russian nationalists have tried to curry 
 favor with them, there is not the slightest chance 
 of Russia risking the life of a single soldier to save 
 
of the War of 1914 23 
 
 them, should Austria again treat them harshly or 
 unjustly. The bond between Russia and Servia is 
 religious rather than racial. For Catholic or Pro- 
 testant Slavs Russia cares nothing. 
 
 " 'One rarely hears a Russian speak well of the 
 Poles,' writes a correspondent, 'but they are often 
 enthusiastic when they talk of Servians and Bul- 
 garians.' 'In Belgrade and Sofia I went into the 
 churches, and the effect upon me was overwhelm- 
 ing,' said a Russian publicist, 'the services were 
 just like those at home, and as I looked at the 
 people around me, I felt more than I had ever 
 done before that they were truly my brothers.' 
 In the churches of Warsaw or Prague the good 
 man would doubtless have felt that Poles or Bo- 
 hemians were even more distant cousins than he 
 had been led to think. The influence of religion 
 in international politics is far stronger than is 
 generally believed." 
 
 No doubt, the writer referred to rigid, formal 
 and non-ethical religions, of which the Greek 
 Church is an extreme type. Teaching that all be- 
 yond its pale are anathema, that church strength- 
 ens the bond of affection between its communi- 
 cants by the simple process of narrowing and thus 
 intensifying it. How strong this tie is may hardly 
 be realized by one who has been taught the broader 
 humanity which naturally develops through an 
 
24 Causes and Consequences 
 
 emancipation from rigid formalism in worship. 
 The tie of brotherhood between adherents of the 
 Greek Church is intensely strong because intensely 
 narrow and concentrated. It has not been weak- 
 ened by diffusion. 
 
 For many years, this struggle between Teuton 
 and Slav has persisted. It has been marked by 
 plot and counterplot; by assassination (the Serb's 
 natural weapon), and by irritating but not always, 
 effectual reprisals by Austria. 
 
 In 1908, the time seemed opportune for Austria 
 to strike another blow to the Pan-Slav project. 
 In flagrant disregard of her treaty obligations, she 
 proclaimed her absolute sovereignty over Bosnia 
 and Herzegovina. During the month of October 
 of that year Europe hung upon the brink of war. 
 A wail of sorrow and a cry for help went up from 
 the Balkans. England officially characterized 
 Austria's action as an outrage upon the law of 
 nations, and the peace of the world. Montenegro 
 issued a proclamation of national sorrow. But 
 Austria had counted upon two factors working for 
 the toleration of her action, and she created a 
 third. Turkey was in the throes of revolution and 
 Russia was prostrate after her war with Japan. 
 Austria incited Prince Ferdinand to disregard the 
 treaty by which Bulgaria had been created a 
 state, and to proclaim himself "czar," free and 
 
of the War of 1914 
 
 25 
 
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26 Causes and Consequences 
 
 independent of Turkey. '"% His new status was in- 
 stantly recognized by Austria and at this price 
 unanimity of action by the Balkan States was 
 avoided. While the windows of the Austrian em- 
 bassy were being broken in Belgrade by an angry 
 Servian mob clamoring for war, Ferdinand, the 
 new ' 'Emperor" in Sofia was arranging for a fra- 
 ternal visit to Franz Josef in Vienna. At the last 
 moment Servia gave way, so the "coup" by which 
 Austria made her seven million Servian subjects 
 into nine million, was successful. 
 
 The imminent danger of an Austro- Servian out- 
 break kept the world on tenterhooks of suspense 
 throughout the long and dangerous period of the 
 first Balkan war. Austria, which had reckoned on 
 Turkey's victory over the Balkan League, wit- 
 nessed without intervening, the occupation, by 
 Servian troops, of the Sandjak of Novi Bazar, a 
 strip of land ninety miles long by forty miles wide, 
 lying between Servia and Montenegro, and linking 
 Turkey to Bosnia. The Sandjak had been evacu- 
 ated by Austria on the annexation of Bosnia and 
 Herzegovina in 1908. It was not until Servia 
 began agitating for a port on the Adriatic that 
 Austria-Hungary put her foot down, and her 
 resolve to keep the Servians from the sea-coast 
 brought about the creation of an independent 
 Albania. 
 
of the War of 1914 
 
 27 
 
28 Causes and Consequences 
 
 The violent incorporation of an additional hos- 
 tile element within the Austrian Empire had not 
 made for the security and peace of that State. 
 More active than ever became those agitators 
 who preached and worked for a great union of 
 "orthodox" Slav people. The persistence and the 
 importance of this agitation were more than 
 realized by Germany. It became an obsession 
 to her and the teutonic state, wholly missing the 
 religious element in the ' 'pan-Slav" movement, 
 firmly believed that it had for its ultimate purpose 
 the subjugation of the alien peoples of Europe, 
 whereas in truth and in fact, separation, political 
 and social, was the mainspring of the pact bind- 
 ing the Balkan States together and which had 
 the warm approval of Russia.* 
 
 Up to the present this projected union of states 
 has been known as "Greater Servia." If it ever 
 materializes it will be composed of three elements, 
 Serbs, Croats, and Slovenes — distinguishable from 
 each other only by dialects and customs. 
 
 This proposed Slav nation will number 
 12,365,000, exclusive of possible accessions from 
 Russia, Poland and Germany. In Southern Ger- 
 many there are half a million Serbs! 
 
 Servia found herself with immensely increased 
 territory and immensely increased prestige as the 
 
 * See note p. 128. 
 
of the War of 1914 29 
 
 outcome of the two Balkan wars. But the knowl- 
 edge that these results had been achieved in spite 
 of Austria only increased the bitterness of feeling 
 between the two countries. 
 
 At last, the Slav conspirators dealt a blow to the 
 succession of the House of Hapsburg. In a par- 
 ticularly brutal and characteristically Servian 
 fashion, the Archduke Ferdinand, heir presump- 
 tive to the Austrian throne, and his wife (remem- 
 ber Alexander and Draga) , were brutally murdered 
 on the 5th day of July, 1914. It is accepted gen- 
 erally that the crime was Servian in origin, and 
 was a part of a plot to establish a "Greater Servia" 
 through the partial dismemberment of Austria. 
 
 Into a dangerous mass of animosity accumulated 
 on either side of the Danube, the assassination of 
 the Archduke Francis Ferdinand fell like a flaming 
 torch. It obviously decided Austria-Hungary to 
 clear up finally the perpetual menace of this 
 small but expanding Slav State growing up at 
 her very gates. 
 
30 Causes and Consequences 
 
 CHAPTER III 
 GREAT POWERS ARE INVOLVED 
 
 The heir to the Austrian throne and his wife 
 were mudered at Sarajevo, capital of the Austrian 
 province of Bosnia, by a Servian sympathizer. 
 The Austrian Government declares that the mur- 
 der was the result of a plot hatched in Belgrade, 
 the Servian capital. 
 
 Austria demanded that Servia should put an end 
 to " Greater Servia" plots and punish Servian 
 accomplices of the Sarajevo assassination named 
 by Austria, these and other measures to be super- 
 vised by Austria, and a reply to be made by 6 p. m. 
 on Saturday. 
 
 Servia replied a few minutes before 6 p. m. on 
 Saturday. She accepted all the Austrian demands 
 save one, that Austrian representatives should take 
 part in an investigation in Servia of the origin of 
 the Sarajevo plot. Servia asked for further in- 
 formation on this point. Nevertheless, Austria 
 considered that the reply was unsatisfactory and 
 declared war. 
 
 The following diary shows the march of events: 
 
 Friday, July 24. Austrian note presented to 
 Servia. 
 
 Saturday, July 25. Servian reply received and 
 
of the War of 1914 31 
 
 deemed unsatisfactory. Austrian Minister leaves 
 Belgrade. King Peter of Servia and his Govern- 
 ment leave Belgrade for Kragujeracs. Servia be- 
 gins mobilizing. Partial mobilization in Austria. 
 "War fever" demonstrations in Berlin. 
 
 Monday, July 27. Servian troops reported to 
 have fired on Austrians. Kaiser returns to Pots- 
 dam from Norway. Montenegro mobilizes in 
 support of Servia. Money crisis in Berlin. Sir E. 
 Grey suggests conference of Ambassadors. 
 
 Tuesday, July 28. Austria declares war on 
 Servia. Servian shipping on the Danube seized. 
 Sir E. Grey's peace plan superseded by l 'conver- 
 sations" between Austria and Russia at St. Peters- 
 burg. Increased run on German banks. Military 
 preparations in France. War demonstrations in 
 Berlin. 
 
 Wednesday, July 29. All Europe arming. Bridge 
 over the Danube between Semlin and Belgrade 
 blown up by Servians. Belgrade shelled by Aus- 
 trians. Russia mobilizing 1,200,000 on the Aus- 
 trian frontier. French President arrives in Paris 
 from Scandinavia. The Kaiser holds an all-night 
 war conference. Austrian Emperor issues manifesto 
 to his people in which he denounces Servia's 
 "flame of hatred for myself and my House." 
 London Stock Exchange crisis. Continental 
 Bourses closed. Mr. Asquith describes the situa- 
 tion as one of "extreme gravity." 
 
32 Causes and Consequences 
 
 Thursday, July 30. Germany demands unquali- 
 fied explanation of Russia's menacing mobiliza- 
 tion on the German and Austrian frontiers. 
 Engagements between Servians and Austrians 
 on the frontier. Reported Austrian defeat at Foca. 
 
 Russia was not in a position to face the menace 
 of a European war in 1908 when Austria last 
 imposed her will on Servia. But 1914 finds a 
 stronger and a richer Russia, a Russia whose 
 position in the Balkans has been immensely 
 strengthened by the increased military efficiency 
 of Servia and Rumania. Should Russia regard the 
 challenge of the Austrian note as directed against 
 herself and meet ultimatum with ultimatum, Ger- 
 many must by the terms of the Triple Alliance 
 step in, while France ranges herself by the side of 
 Russia. The appalling conflagrations which would 
 then inevitably result could not leave Great 
 Britain indifferent. 
 
 August 1. Germany declared war upon Russia. 
 
 August 3. Germany declared war against France 
 and invaded Belgium in contro vent ion of the 
 neutrality treaty. 
 
 August 4. Great Britain declared war upon 
 Germany. 
 
 August 23. Japan declared war upon Germany. 
 
 August 27. Austria severed diplomatic relations 
 with Japan. 
 
 September 19. Italy mobilized her army. 
 
of the War of 1914 33 
 
 CHAPTER IV 
 ENGLAND'S INTERVENTION 
 
 Theoretically, war between France and Ger- 
 many without British intervention was possible. 
 Such a war would, however, have been fruitless 
 for Germany as it would have offered no possi- 
 bilities for the extension of the German littoral 
 upon the North Sea. To attain this object it was 
 also necessary to provoke Belgium into war. This 
 was done by violating the treaty of 1839 in which 
 Germany had solemnly guaranteed the inviolate- 
 ness of Belgian territory. 
 
 [In addition to the guarantees against the in- 
 vasion of Belgium contained in the treaty of 
 1839, that country thought herself further safe- 
 guarded by the agreement entered into by the 
 same governments in 1870, by the terms of 
 which Great Britain, France and Germany sev- 
 erally bound themselves to actively co-operate 
 with Belgium in the event of a violation of Bel- 
 gium neutrality by any one or two of the other 
 three countries last named.] 
 
 Just as this stage negotiations between Germany 
 and Britain were rapidly drawing to a close. 
 They are summarized in the statement made by 
 Sir Edward Grey (Foreign Secretary) , in the Brit- 
 
34 Causes and Consequences 
 
 ish House of Commons on the 27th of July: 
 "Last Friday morning I received from the Austro- 
 Hungarian Ambassador the text of the communi- 
 cation made by the Austro -Hungarian Govern- 
 ment to the Powers, which has appeared in the 
 Press, and which included textually the demand 
 made by the Austro-Hungarian Government upon 
 Servia. 
 
 "In the afternoon I saw other Ambassadors and 
 expressed the view that as long as the dispute was 
 one between Austro-Hungary and Servia alone I 
 felt that we had no title to interfere, but that if 
 the relations between Austria-Hungary and Russia 
 became threatening the question would then be 
 one of the peace of Europe — a matter that con- 
 cerned us all. 
 
 "I did not then know what view the Russian 
 Government had taken of the situation, and with- 
 out knowing how things were likely to develop I 
 could not make any immediate proposition; but 
 I said that, if relations between Austria-Hungary 
 and Russia did become threatening, the only 
 chance of peace appeared to me to be that the 
 four Powers — Germany, France, Italy and Great 
 Britain — who were not directly interested in the 
 Servian question should work together both in 
 St. Petersburg and in Vienna simultaneously to 
 get both Austro-Hungary and Russia to arrange 
 a settlement. 
 
of the War of 1914 35 
 
 ' 'After I had heard that Austria-Hungary had 
 broken off diplomatic relations with Servia, I 
 made by telegraph yesterday afternoon the fol- 
 lowing proposal as a practical method of applying 
 the views that I had already expressed. 
 
 "I instructed his Majesty's Ambassadors in 
 Paris, Berlin and Rome to ask the Governments 
 to which they were accredited whether they would 
 be willing to arrange that the French, German and 
 Italian ambassadors in London should meet me in 
 a conference to be held in London immediately 
 to endeavor to find a means of arranging the pres- 
 ent difficulties. 
 
 "At the same time, I instructed his Majesty's 
 ambassadors to ask those Governments to auth- 
 orize their representatives in Vienna, St. Peters- 
 burg, and Belgrade to inform the Governments 
 there of the proposed conference and to ask them 
 to suspend active military operations pending the 
 result of the conference. 
 
 "It must be obvious to any person who reflects 
 upon the situation that the moment the dispute 
 ceases to be one between Austria-Hungary and 
 Servia and becomes one in which another Great 
 Power (Germany) is involved it can but end in 
 the greatest catastrophe that has ever befallen 
 the Continent of Europe at one blow; no one can 
 say what would be the limit of the issues that 
 
36 Causes and Consequences 
 
 might be raised by such a conflict; the conse- 
 quences of it, direct and indirect, would be in- 
 calculable." 
 
 Three days later Sir Edward supplemented the 
 foregoing by saying: "I regret I can not say the 
 situation is less grave than it was yesterday. The 
 outstanding facts are much the same. Austria 
 has begun war against Servia. Russia has ordered 
 a partial mobilization, which has hitherto not 
 led to any corresponding steps by any other 
 Power, as far as our information goes. 
 
 "We continue to pursue one great object, the 
 preservation of European peace, and for this 
 purpose we are keeping in close touch with the 
 other Powers. In thus keeping in touch we have, 
 I am glad to say, had no difficulty so far, though 
 it has not been possible for the Powers to join in 
 diplomatic action as I proposed on Monday." 
 
 Telegraphing on July 27 to Sir Edward Grey, 
 the British ambassador says: 
 
 "I have had conversations with all my col- 
 leagues representing the Great Powers. The im- 
 pression left on my mind is that the Austro- 
 Hungarian note was so drawn up as to make war 
 inevitable; that the Austro-Hungarian Govern- 
 ment are fully resolved to have war with Servia; 
 that they consider their position as a Great 
 Power at stake; and that until punishment has 
 
of the War of 1914 37 
 
 been administered to Servia it is unlikely that 
 they will listen to proposals of mediation." 
 
 In a despatch of July 27 the British ambassador 
 in Berlin says: 
 
 "In the course of a short conversation the 
 Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs said * * * 
 that if Russia only mobilized in the south Germany 
 would not mobilize, but if she mobilized in the 
 north Germany would have to do so too." 
 
 Sir Edward Grey telegraphed to the British 
 ambassador in Vienna, July 27: 
 
 "I said (to the Austrian ambassador in London) 
 that it seemed to me as if the Austrian Govern- 
 ment believed that, even after the Servian reply 
 (to the Austrian note), they could make war on 
 Servia anyhow without bringing Russia into the 
 dispute. If they could make war on Servia and 
 at the same time satisfy Russia well and good; 
 but if not the consequences would be incalculable 
 * * * Already the effect on Europe was one of 
 anxiety. I pointed out that our fleet was to have 
 dispersed today, but we had felt unable to let it 
 disperse. We should not think of calling up the 
 Reserves at this moment, but there was no menace 
 in what we had done about the fleet * . * * It 
 seemed to me that the Servian reply already 
 involved the greatest humiliation to Servia that 
 I had ever seen a country undergo." 
 
38 Causes and Consequences 
 
 On July 28, according to a despatch from Sir 
 William, Goschen, the German Imperial Chan- 
 cellor, told him that "a war between the Great 
 Powers must be avoided." 
 
 Two days later (July 29) the British ambassador 
 to Germany (Goschen) telegraphed to the Brit- 
 ish Foreign Minister: 
 
 "I found the Secretary for Foreign Affairs (Herr 
 von Jagow) very depressed today * * * He 
 was much troubled by reports of mobilization in 
 Russia and of certain military measures, which 
 he did not specify, in France. He subsequently 
 spoke of these measures to my French colleague, 
 who informed him that French Government had 
 done nothing more than German Government 
 had done — namely, recalled officers on leave. His 
 Excellency denied German Government had done 
 this, but as a matter of fact, it is true." 
 
 The same day the British ambassador to Rome 
 sent the following despatch home: 
 
 "The German Government are being informed 
 that the Italian Government would not be par- 
 doned by public opinion here unless they had 
 taken every possible step so as to avoid war. He 
 (the Foreign Minister) is urging that the German 
 Government must lend their co-operation in this. 
 I added that there seemed to be a difficulty in 
 making Germany believe that Russia was in 
 earnest." 
 
of the War of 1914 39 
 
 In a despatch to the British ambassador in 
 Paris on July 29, Sir Edward Grey says that he 
 told M. Cambon (French ambassador in London) 
 that even if the Austrian-Servian conflict became 
 a question between Austria and Russia, England 
 would not feel called upon to take a hand. If 
 Germany and France became involved "we had 
 not made up our minds what we should do. It 
 was a case that we should have to consider." 
 
 After these despatches had been received, Sir 
 Edward Grey sent the following message to 
 Goschen : 
 
 "After speaking to the German ambassador 
 this afternoon about the European situation, I 
 said that I wished to say to him in a quite private 
 and friendly way, something that was on my mind. 
 The situation was very grave. While it was re- 
 stricted to the issues at present actually involved 
 we had no thought of interfering in it. But if 
 Germany became involved in it, and then France, 
 the issue might be so great that it would involve 
 all European interests; and I did not wish him to 
 be misled by the friendly tone of our conversa- 
 tion — which I hoped would continue — into thinking 
 that we should stand aside. 
 
 "He said that he quite understood this, but he 
 asked whether I meant that we should, under 
 certain circumstances, intervene. 
 
40 Causes and Consequences 
 
 "I replied that I did not wish to say that, or to 
 use anything that was like a threat or an attempt 
 to apply pressure by saying that, if things became 
 worse, we should intervene. There would be no 
 question of our intervening if Germany was not 
 involved, or even if France was not involved. But 
 we knew very well that if the issue did become such 
 that we thought British interests required us to 
 intervene, we must intervene at once, and the 
 decision would have to be very rapid, just as the 
 decisions of other Powers had to be. If we failed 
 in our efforts to keep the peace, and if the issue 
 spread so that it involved practically every Eu- 
 ropean interest, I did not wish to be open to any 
 reproach from him that the friendly tone of all 
 our conversations had misled him or his Govern- 
 ment into supposing that we should not take ac- 
 tion * * * The German ambassador took no 
 exception to what I had said; indeed he told me 
 that it accorded with what he had already given in 
 Berlin as his view of the situation." 
 
 Germany then made the proposal to England, 
 characterized by Mr. Asquith as being an infa- 
 mous attempt to purchase Britain's betrayal of the 
 treaty obligations. The proposal is embodied in 
 the following despatch from Goschen to Grey: 
 
 "I was asked to call upon the Chancellor to- 
 night. His Excellency had just returned from 
 Potsdam. 
 
of the War of 1914 41 
 
 "He said that should Austria be attacked by 
 Russia, a European conflagration might, he feared, 
 become inevitable, owing to Germany's obliga- 
 tions as Austria's ally, in spite of his continued 
 efforts to maintain peace. He then proceeded to 
 make the following strong bid for British neu- 
 trality. He said that it was clear, so far as he was 
 able to judge the main principle which governed 
 British policy, that Great Britain would never 
 stand by and allow France to be crushed in any 
 conflict there might be. That, however, was not 
 the object at which Germany aimed. Provided, 
 that neutrality of Great Britain were certain, 
 every assurance would be given to the British 
 Government that the Imperial Government aimed 
 at no territorial acquisitions at the expense of 
 France should they prove victorious in any war 
 that might ensue. 
 
 "I questioned his Excellency about the French 
 Colonies, and he said that he was unable to give 
 a similar undertaking in that respect. As regards 
 Holland, however, his Excellency said that, so 
 long as Germany's adversaries respected integrity 
 and neutrality of the Netherlands Germany was 
 ready to give his Majesty's Government an assur- 
 ance that she would do likewise. It depended 
 upon the action of France what operations Ger- 
 many might be forced to enter upon in Belgium, 
 
42 Causes and Consequences 
 
 but when the war was over, Belgian territory 
 would be respected if she had not sided against 
 Germany. 
 
 "His Excellency ended by saying that ever 
 since he had been Chancellor the object of his 
 policy had been, as you were aware, to bring about 
 an understanding with England; he trusted that 
 these assurances might form the basis of that 
 understanding which he so much desired. He had 
 in mind a general neutrality agreement between 
 England and Germany, though it was of 
 course at the present moment too early to discuss 
 details, and an assurance of British neutrality in 
 the conflict which present crisis might possibly 
 produce would enable him to look forward to 
 realization of his desire. 
 
 "In reply to his Excellency's inquiry how I 
 thought his request would appeal to you, I said 
 that I did not think it probable that at this stage 
 of events you would care to bind yourself to any 
 course of action and that I was of opinion that 
 you would desire to retain full liberty. 
 
 "Our conversation upon this subject having 
 come to an end, I communicated the contents of 
 your telegram of today to his Excellency, who 
 expressed his best thanks to you." 
 
 Britain's reply to Germany's offer was as fol- 
 lows: 
 
of the War of 1914 43 
 
 "His Majesty's Government can not for a 
 moment entertain the Chancellor's proposal that 
 they should bind themselves to neutrality on such 
 terms. 
 
 "What he asks us in effect is to engage to stand 
 by while French Colonies are taken and France is 
 beaten so long as Germany does not take French 
 territory as distinct from the colonies. 
 
 "From the material point of view such a pro- 
 posal is unacceptable, for France, without further 
 territory in Europe being taken from her, could 
 be so crushed as to lose her position as a Great 
 Power and become subordinate to German policy. 
 
 "Altogether, apart from that, it would be a dis- 
 grace for us to make this bargain with Germany 
 at the expense of France, a disgrace from which 
 the good name of this country would never re- 
 cover. 
 
 "The Chancellor also in effect asks us to bar- 
 gain away whatever obligation or interest we have 
 as regards the neutrality of Belgium. We could 
 not entertain that bargain either. 
 
 "Sir Edward Grey declares that the one way 
 of maintaining the good relations between Eng- 
 land and Germany is that they should continue 
 to work together to preserve the peace of Europe. 
 The present crisis safely passed, his own endeavour 
 will be to promote some arrangement to which 
 
44 Causes and Consequences 
 
 Germany could be a party, assuring her and her 
 allies against any aggressive policy by France. 
 
 "In a despatch to Sir William Goschen, dated 
 July 31, Sir Edward Grey suggests that England, 
 France, Germany and Italy might offer to Austria 
 to undertake to see that she obtained full satis- 
 faction of her demands on Servia provided the 
 demands did not impair Servian sovereignty and 
 the integrity of Servian territory. Sir Edward 
 Grey points out that Austria has already agreed 
 to respect them, and says that Russia might be 
 informed by the four disinterested Powers of their 
 offer, all Powers, 'of course,' to suspend further 
 military operations or preparations." 
 
 Sir Edward Grey authorizes the ambassador to 
 sound the German Foreign Secretary about this 
 proposal, and adds: 
 
 "I said to the German ambassador this morn- 
 ing that if Germany could get any reasonable 
 proposal put forward which made it clear that 
 Germany and Austria were striving to preserve 
 European peace, and that Russia and France would 
 be unreasonable if they rejected it, I would support 
 it at St. Petersburg and Paris, and go the length 
 of saying that if Russia and France would not 
 accept it his Majesty's Government would have 
 nothing more to do with the consequence, but, 
 otherwise, I told German ambassador that if 
 
of the War of 1914 45 
 
 France became involved we should be drawn in." 
 
 On the 30th of July, 1914, the British ambassa- 
 dor in Vienna telegraphed to Sir Edward Grey: 
 "Although I am not able to verify it, I have 
 private information that the German ambassador 
 knew the text of the Austrian ultimatum to 
 Servia before it was despatched and telegraphed 
 to the German Emperor. I know from the German 
 ambassador himself that he endorses every line 
 of it." 
 
 The night of Monday, August 3, found England 
 thoroughly awake to the calamitous position in 
 which she with the rest of Europe was to be in- 
 volved. The situation was made plain by a mas- 
 terly address by Sir Edward Grey then delivered 
 in the House of Commons. The Foreign Secre- 
 tary said: 
 
 ■'I want to approach this crisis from the point 
 of view of British interest, British honour; free 
 from all question as to why peace has not be pre- 
 served. We shall publish papers as soon as we 
 can with regard to what took place last week 
 when we were working for peace, and when these 
 papers are published I have no doubt that to 
 every human being they will make it clear how 
 strenuous and genuine and whole-hearted all our 
 efforts for peace were. 
 
 "Well, I come first to the question of our treaty 
 
46 Causes and Consequences 
 
 obligations. I have assured the House, and the 
 Prime Minister has assured the House more than 
 once, that if any crisis such as this arose we should 
 come before the House of Commons and be able 
 to say to the House that it was free to decide what 
 the British attitude should be, and that we would 
 have no secret engagement which we should spring 
 upon the House. 
 
 ''Well, now, to make this question of obligation 
 clear to the House I must go back first to the 
 Moroccan crisis in 1906. That was the time of 
 the Algeciras Conference. That was a difficult 
 time for the Government, because a general elec- 
 tion was in progress. Ministers were scattered 
 over the country, and I spent three days a week 
 in my constituency and three days in the Foreign 
 Office. 
 
 "I was asked the question whether, if that 
 crisis developed into a war between France and 
 Germany, we would give armed support. I said 
 then that I could promise nothing unless I was 
 subject to the whole-hearted support of public 
 opinion here when the occasion arose. I said that 
 in my opinion if war was forced upon France 
 upon the question of Morocco — a question which 
 had just been the subject of agreement — that if 
 out of that agreement war was forced upon 
 France at that time in my opinion the public 
 
of the War of 1914 47 
 
 opinion of the country would rally to the support 
 of France. 
 
 But I made no promise. I expressed the opinion 
 in the same words to the French and the German 
 ambassadors at the time without making any 
 promise. That position was accepted by the 
 French Government, but they said at the time to 
 me and very reasonably, 'If you think it possible 
 that public opinion in Great Britain might, when 
 a sudden crisis arose, justify you in giving to 
 France armed support which you cannot promise 
 in advance, unless between military and naval 
 experts some conversations had taken place, you 
 would not be able to give that support even if 
 you wished when the time comes.' 
 
 1 'There was force in the contention and I agreed 
 to it and authorized those conversations to take 
 place, but on the distinct understanding that 
 nothing which passed between the naval and 
 military experts of either Government in any 
 way restricted our freedom as to whether or not 
 we should give that support when the time arrived. 
 On that occasion a general election was in progress 
 and I had to take the responsibility of what I did 
 because the Cabinet could not be summoned. 
 
 "What, then, is our position? We have had for 
 many years a long-standing friendship with France. 
 I remember well the feeling in this House, I re- 
 
48 Causes and Conquenceses 
 
 member my own feeling when the late Govern- 
 ment made that agreement with France — the 
 warm, cordial feeling resulting from the fact that 
 these two nations who had had perpetual dif- 
 ferences in the past had cleared those differences 
 away. How far that friendship entails obligation 
 it is for every individual member of this House to 
 consider for himself. On this point the House must 
 separately and collectively judge for itself. 
 
 "The French nation has a fleet which is now 
 in the Mediterranean. The north and west coasts 
 of France are absolutely undefended. With the 
 French fleet in the Mediterranean the situation is 
 very different from what it used to be so far as 
 France is concerned. The friendship which had 
 grown up between the two countries had given 
 them a sense of security that there was nothing 
 to be feared from us. 
 
 4 'My own feeling is this: that if a foreign fleet, 
 engaged in a war which France had not sought, 
 came down the English Channel and bombarded 
 and battered the undefended coast of France we 
 could not stand by. 
 
 " With this thing going on under our very eyes we 
 could not stand by with our arms folded, looking 
 on dispassionately, doing nothing. That, I be- 
 lieve, is the feeling of the country. But I want 
 to look at it from the point of view of British in- 
 
of the War of 1914 49 
 
 terests, and it is from that point of view that I 
 am going to base and justify what I am presently 
 going to say to the House. 
 
 "If we are to say nothing at this moment, what 
 is France to do, with her fleet in the Mediter- 
 ranean, with her northern and western coasts 
 absolutely undefended, at the mercy of the German 
 fleet coming down the Channel to batter her 
 northern coast? We must remember that we are 
 faced with a war of life and death. It may be 
 that the French fleet will be withdrawn from the 
 Mediterranean. We are in the presence of a 
 European conflagration. Can anyone set limits 
 to the consequences that may arise from it? 
 
 "What would be the position of the Mediter- 
 ranean then? A clear trade through that area is 
 vital. Nobody can say that within the next few 
 weeks there is any particular trade route which 
 may not be vital to this country. What would be 
 the position if we had to keep a fleet in the Mediter- 
 ranean? What risks from the point of view of 
 British interests would we not run by maintaining 
 our attitude of neutrality? 
 
 "Well, Sir, we feel strongly that France is en- 
 titled to know, and know at once what our attitude 
 is to be — whether or not in the event of an attack 
 upon her unprotected northern and western coasts 
 she could depend upon British support. And in 
 
50 Causes and Consequences 
 
 that emergency and under these compelling cir- 
 cumstances yesterday afternoon I gave to the 
 French ambassador the following statement: — 
 
 " 'I am authorized to give an assurance that if 
 the German fleet comes into the Channel or 
 through the North Sea to undertake hostile opera- 
 tions against the French coasts or shipping, the 
 British fleet will give all the protection in its 
 power.' 
 
 "This assurance is, of course, subject to the 
 policy of his Majesty's Government receiving the 
 support of Parliament, and it must not be taken 
 as binding the Government to take any action 
 until the contingency takes place. So I state this 
 to the House not as a declaration of war on ovlr 
 part, not as entailing immediate aggressive action 
 on our part, but as binding us to take aggressive 
 action should the contingency arise. 
 
 "I understand that the German Government 
 would be prepared if we would pledge ourselves to 
 neutrality to agree that its fleet would not attack 
 the northern coasts of France. I only heard that 
 shortly before I came to the House, but it is far 
 too narrow an engagement and there is a more 
 serious consideration, becoming more serious every 
 hour. 
 
 "There is the question of the neutrality of 
 Belgium." 
 
of the War of 1914 51 
 
 Sir E. Grey proceeded to state that the French 
 Government were resolved to respect the neutrality 
 of Belgium, but that the German Minister for 
 Foreign Affairs had informed Sir E. Goschen, the 
 British ambassador in Berlin, that he doubted if 
 his Government could make any statement upon 
 the undesirable effect of disclosing part of their 
 plan of campaign. The Belgian Government had 
 assured Britain that they would do their utmost 
 to maintain their neutrality. He continued: 
 
 ''Now there appears the news I have received 
 to-day, though I am not sure how far it has 
 reached me in an accurate form, the news that an 
 ultimatum has been given by Germany to Belgium, 
 the object of which was to offer Belgium friendly 
 relations with Germany on condition that she 
 would facilitate the passage of German troops 
 through Belgium. Till one has this news abso- 
 lutely definitely, I do not wish to say all that one 
 would say otherwise. We were sounded in the 
 course of last week as to whether if after a war 
 Belgian integrity should be preserved that would 
 have contented us. We replied that we could not 
 bargain away what obligations we had in regard 
 to Belgian neutrality. 
 
 1 'Shortly before I reached the House I was in- 
 formed that the following telegram has been 
 received from the King of the Belgians by our 
 
52 Causes and Consequences 
 
 King George: — 'Remembering the numerous proofs 
 of your Majesty's friendship and that of your 
 predecessor and the friendly attitude of England 
 in 1870, and the proof of friendship which she has 
 just given us again, I make a supreme appeal for 
 the diplomatic intervention of your Majesty's 
 Government to safeguard the integrity of Belgium.' 
 
 "But the diplomatic intervention took place 
 last week on our part. What can diplomatic 
 intervention do now? We have a great and vital 
 interest in the independence of Belgium. If 
 Belgium is compelled to submit to allow her 
 neutrality to be violated the situation is clear. 
 
 "Just opposite to us there would be a common 
 interest against the unmeasured aggrandisement 
 of another Power. 
 
 "It may be said that we might stand aside, 
 husband our strength, and at the end of the war 
 intervene with effect to put things right and adjust 
 them to our own point of view. If in a crisis like 
 this we run away from those obligations of honour 
 and interest as regards the Belgian Treaty, I 
 doubt whether, whatever material force we might 
 have at the end, it would be of very much value in 
 face of the respect that we should have lost. I do 
 not believe that whether a Great Power stands 
 outside this war or not it is going to be in a position 
 at the end of the war to exert its material influence. 
 
of the War of 1914 53 
 
 "For us, with a powerful fleet which we believe 
 is able to protect our commerce, to protect our 
 shores, to protect our interests if we engaged in 
 war, we shall suffer but little more than what we 
 shall suffer even if we stand aside. 
 
 1 'Whether we are in it or whether we stand out- 
 side, foreign trade is going to stop not because the 
 trade routes are closed but because there is no 
 trade at the other end. With Continental nations 
 engaged in war — all their population, their energies 
 and their wealth engaged in a desperate struggle — - 
 you cannot carry on such a trade as you would 
 carry on in time of peace whether we are parties 
 to the war or whether we are not. 
 
 "If we stand aside I don't believe for a moment 
 we shall be in a position to use our material forces 
 to avoid or undo what has happened in the course 
 of the war, to prevent the whole of ' Western 
 Europe falling under the domination of a single 
 Power, and I am quite sure our moral position will 
 be worse. I am not yet sure that we know all the 
 facts, but if the facts turn out to be as they have 
 reached us up to the preserit time, it is quite clear 
 that there is an obligation on this country to do 
 its utmost to prevent the consequence to which 
 those facts will lead. 
 
 "If we do not take the line I have indicated — 
 and we have to consider Belgian treaty rights, the 
 
54 Causes and Consequences 
 
 possible position in the Mediterranean, and the 
 results to ourselves and to France through our 
 failure to support her — if we say that these things 
 matter nothing I believe that we should sacrifice 
 our respect, our name, and our reputation, and 
 that we should not escape the most serious eco- 
 nomic consequences. 
 
 "But I have perhaps said enough to show that 
 we must be prepared. We are prepared for the 
 consequences that may arise from the attitude we 
 have adopted. We are ready to take our part. 
 
 "If we are forced, and rapidly forced, to take 
 our stand upon these issues, then I believe when 
 the country realizes what is at stake, what the 
 real issues are, the magnitude of the impending 
 danger in the west of Europe, then I believe we 
 shall be supported throughout not only by the 
 House of Commons but by the determination, the 
 resolution, the courage, and the endurance of the 
 whole country." 
 
 After Sir Edward Grey had concluded his 
 speech, the debate was continued as follows: 
 
 Mr. Bonar Law (leader of the Opposition) 
 said: "Every one of his Majesty's Dominions 
 Beyond the Seas will be behind us with whatever 
 action it is necessary to take. And this only will 
 I say. The Govermnent already know, but I give 
 them now the assurance on behalf of the party of 
 
of the War of 1914 55 
 
 which I am leader in this House that in whatever 
 steps they think it necessary to take for the 
 honour and the security of this country they can 
 rely upon the unhesitating support of the Opposi- 
 tion." 
 
 Mr. John Redmond said: "To-day there are in 
 Ireland two large bodies of Volunteers, one of 
 which has sprung into existence in the north and 
 another in the south. I say to the Government 
 that they may to-morrow withdraw every one of 
 their troops from Ireland. Ireland will be de- 
 fended by her armed sons from foreign invasion, 
 and for that purpose the armed Catholics in the 
 south will be only too glad to join arms with the 
 armed Protestant Ulster men. 
 
 "Is it too much to hope that out of this situation 
 a result may spring which will be good, not merely 
 for the Empire, but for the future welfare and 
 integrity of the Irish nation? While Irishmen are 
 in favour of peace and would desire to save the 
 democracy of this country from all the horrors of 
 war, while we will make any possible sacrifice for 
 that purpose, still, we offer this to the Government 
 of the day. They may take their troops away, and 
 if it is allowed to us in comradeship with our 
 brothers in the north, we will ourselves defend the 
 coasts of Ireland." 
 
 One discordant note was struck by a repre- 
 
56 Causes and Consequences 
 
 sentative of the Labor Party in the House. Mr. 
 Ramsay MacDonald said he thought the Govern- 
 ment was wrong. If Sir Edward Grey said the 
 country was in danger the House would vote him 
 what money he wanted and even offer themselves. 
 He had not persuaded them the country was in 
 danger. 
 
 England made one last effort to preserve peace, 
 with honor. In accordance with instructions of 
 August 4, from Sir Edward Grey, secretary of 
 State for Foreign Affairs, the Ambassador called 
 on the German Secretary of State, Gottlieb von 
 Jagow. He inquired whether Germany would re- 
 frain from violating Belgian neutrality. 
 
 "Herr von Jagow," the report continues, "at 
 once replied that he was sorry to say his answer 
 must be 'No,' as in consequence of the German 
 troops having crossed the frontier that morning, 
 Belgian neutrality already had been violated." 
 
 "Herr von Jagow again went into reasons why 
 the Imperial Government had been obliged to 
 take this step — namely, that they had to advance 
 into France by the quickest and easiest way, so 
 as to be able to get well ahead with their opera- 
 tions, and endeavor to strike some decisive blow 
 as early as possible. 
 
 "It was a matter of life or death for them, as, 
 if they had gone by the more southern route they 
 
of the War #/ 1914 57 
 
 could not have hoped, in view of the paucity of 
 roads and the strength of the fortresses, to have 
 got through without formidable opposition, en- 
 tailing great loss of time. 
 
 "This loss of time would mean time gained by 
 the Russians for the bringing up of their troops 
 to the German frontier. Rapidity of action was 
 the great German asset, while that of Russia was 
 the inexhaustiable supply of troops. 
 
 "I pointed out to Herr von Jagow that this fait 
 accompli of the violation of the Belgian frontier 
 rendered, as he would readily understand, the 
 situation exceedingly grave, and I asked him 
 whether there was still not time to draw back and 
 avoid possible consequences which both he and I 
 would deplore. He replied that for reasons he had 
 given me it was now impossible for him to draw 
 back. 
 
 "The British ambassador went to the German 
 foreign office again the same afternoon and in- 
 formed the Secretary of State that unless the 
 Imperial Government could give assurances by 
 12 o'clock that night they would proceed no 
 further with the violation of the Belgian frontier 
 and stop their advance, he had been instructed 
 to demand his passports and to inform the Im- 
 perial Government that his Majesty's Govern- 
 ment would have to take all steps in its power to 
 
58 Causes and Consequences 
 
 uphold neutral Belgium and the observance of the 
 treaty to which Germany was as much a party as 
 Great Britain. 
 
 "Herr von Jagow," says the report, ' 'replied 
 that to his great regret he could give no other 
 answer than that which he had given to me earlier 
 in the day, namely, that the safety of the Empire 
 rendered it absolutely necessary that the Imperial 
 troops should advance through Belgium. 
 
 "I gave his Excellency a written summary of 
 your telegram, and, pointing out that you had 
 mentioned 12 o'clock as the time when his Maj- 
 esty's Government would expect an answer, 
 asked him whether, in view of the terrible conse- 
 quences which would necessarily ensue, it was not 
 possible, even at the last moment, that their 
 answer should be reconsidered. He replied that 
 if the time given was 24 hours or more, his answer 
 must be the same. 
 
 "I said that in that case I should have to de- 
 mand my passports. 
 
 "The interview took place about 7 o'clock. In 
 a short conversation which ensued Herr von Jagow 
 expressed his poignant regret at the crumbling of 
 his entire policy and that of the Imperial Chan- 
 cellor, which had been to make friends with Great 
 Britain and then, through Great Britain, to get 
 closer to France. 
 
of the War of 1914 59 
 
 "I said that this sudden end to my work in 
 Berlin was to me also a matter of deep regret and 
 disappointment, but that he must understand 
 that under the circumstances and in view of our 
 engagements his Majesty's Government could 
 not have acted otherwise than it had done." 
 
 The ambassador then went to see the Imperial 
 Chancellor, Dr. von Bethmann-Hollweg, and he 
 found him very excited. 
 
 "The chancellor," says the report, "began a 
 harangue, which lasted about twenty minutes. 
 He said the step taken by Great Britain was ter- 
 rible to a degree. Just for a word 'neutrality' — a 
 word which in wartime had been so often disre- 
 garded — just for a scrap of paper, Great Britain 
 was going to make war on a kindred nation, who 
 desired nothing better than to be friends with her. 
 
 "All his efforts in that direction had been ren- 
 dered useless by this last terrible step, and the 
 policy to which, as I know, he had devoted him- 
 self since his accession to office, was tumbled 
 down like a house of cards. 
 
 "What he had done was unthinkable. It was like 
 striking a man from behind while he was fighting 
 for his life against two assailants. He held Great 
 Britain responsible for all the terrible events that 
 might happen. 
 
 "I protested strongly against this statement, 
 
60 Causes and Consequences 
 
 and said that in the same way as he and Herr von 
 Jagow wished me to understand that for strategical 
 reasons it was a matter of life or death to Germany 
 to advance through Belgium and violate the 
 latter's neutrality, so I would wish him to under- 
 stand that it was, so to speak, a matter of life or 
 death for the honor of Great Britain that she 
 should keep her solemn engagement to do her 
 utmost to defend Belgium's neutrality if attacked. 
 A solemn compact simply had to be kept, or what 
 confidence could any one have in engagements 
 given by Great Britain in the future? 
 
 "The chancellor said: 'But at what price will 
 that compact have been kept? Has the British 
 Government thought of that?' 
 
 "I hinted to his Excellency as plainly as I could 
 that fear of consequences could hardly be regarded 
 as an excuse for breaking a solemn engagement. 
 But his Excellency was so excited, so evidently 
 overcome by the news of our action, so little dis- 
 posed to hear reason, that I refrained from adding 
 fuel to the flame by further argument. 
 
 "As I was leaving, he said that the blow of 
 Great Britain joining Germany's enemies was all 
 the greater because almost up to the last moment 
 he and his Government had been working with 
 us and supporting our efforts to maintain peace 
 between Austria and Russia. 
 
of the War of 1914 61 
 
 "I said that this was part of the tragedy which 
 saw two nations fall apart just at the moment 
 when the relations between them were more 
 friendly and cordial than they had been for years. 
 Unfortunately, notwithstanding our efforts to 
 maintain peace between Austria and Russia, war 
 had spread and brought us face to face with a 
 situation which entailed our separation from our 
 late fellow workers. He would readily under- 
 stand that no one regretted this more than I." 
 
 The British ambassador declares he handed a 
 telegraphic report of the conversation to the 
 telegraph office in Berlin for transmission, but that 
 it never reached the British Foreign Office. 
 
 That evening Herr Zimmerman, under Secre- 
 tary of State, called on Sir William Goschen and 
 asked whether the call for his passports was equiv- 
 alent to a declaration of war. The ambassador 
 replied that there had been cases where diplomatic 
 relations had been broken off in which war had 
 not ensued, but his instructions showed that if a 
 reply was not received by 12 o'clock, Great 
 Britain would take such steps as her engagements 
 required. 
 
 Herr Zimmerman said that it was in fact a 
 declaration of war, as Germany could not give the 
 assurances required. Soon afterward a fly sheet 
 was issued by the Berliner Tageblatt stating that 
 
62 Causes and Consequences 
 
 Great Britain had declared war against Ger- 
 many. 
 
 1 'Immediately," says the report, "an exceed- 
 ingly excited and unruly mob assembled before 
 the embassy, and the police were overpowered. 
 We took no notice of this until the crash of glass 
 and the landing of cobblestones in the drawing 
 room, where we were all sitting, warned us that 
 the situation was getting unpleasant." 
 
 The ambassador telephoned to the foreign office 
 and police were sent and cleared the street. No 
 more direct unpleasantness occurred. Herr von 
 Jagow called and expressed his regrets. He said 
 the behavior of his countrymen made him feel 
 more ashamed than he could say. He had decided 
 that the news of the declaration of war should not 
 be published until the following morning, and for 
 that reason had only sent a small force of police 
 to protect the embassy. 
 
 The next day the Emperor sent an aid with a 
 message, in which the Emperor expressed regret 
 for the occurrences, and also requested the am- 
 bassador to tell the King of England that he 
 would at once divest himself of his British 
 titles. 
 
 With respect to this message, the ambassador 
 says: "The message lost none of its acerbity by 
 the manner of its delivery." 
 
of the War of 1914 63 
 
 On July 31, 1914, France gave Belgium a formal 
 assurance that "no incursion of French troops 
 will take place in Belgium." This assurance 
 was at once communicated by Belgium to Germany 
 with the following pledge from Belgium: "If 
 contrary to our expectations the country's neu- 
 trality should be violated by France * * * 
 Belgium and her army would oppose a most 
 vigorous resistance to the invaders." 
 
 In 1911, Von Bethman Hollwegg had assured 
 Belgium that in the event of a Franco-German 
 war her neutrality would be sacred. This assur- 
 ance was repeated by Von Jagow in 1913 and 
 reaffirmed forty-eight hours before Germany de- 
 livered the ultimatum to Belgium which pre- 
 cipitated the war with England, and stripped 
 Germany of every vestige of national honor.* 
 
 * Vide Belgian "Gray Book," published October 5, 1914.. 
 
64 Causes and Consequences 
 
 CHAPTER V 
 AUDI ALTERAM PARTEM 
 
 Germany's view as to the responsibility for the 
 war, apart from the Austria-Servia incident, is 
 embodied in a telegram sent by the instructions 
 of King George to his cousin, the Czar of Russia. 
 The telegram follows: 
 
 "Sir Edward Grey to Sir G. Buchanan, St. Peters- 
 burg, 
 
 Foreign Office, 
 
 August 1, 1914, 3:30 a. m. 
 "You should at once apply for an audience with 
 his Majesty the Emperor, and convey to him the 
 following personal message from the King: 
 
 " 'My Government has received the following 
 statement from the German Government: 
 
 11 'On July 29 the Russian Emperor requested 
 the German Emperor by telegraph to mediate 
 between Russia and Austria. The Emperor im- 
 mediately declared his readiness to do so. He 
 informed the Russian Emperor of this by tele- 
 graph, and took the required action at Vienna. 
 Without waiting for the result of this action Russia 
 mobilized against Austria. By telegraph the Ger- 
 man Emperor pointed out to the Russian Em- 
 peror that hereby his attempt at mediation would 
 
of the War of 1914 65 
 
 be rendered illusory. The Emperor further asked 
 the Russian Emperor to suspend the military 
 operations against Austria. This, however, did 
 not happen. 
 
 " 'In spite of this the German Government 
 continued its mediation in Vienna. In this matter 
 the German Government have gone to the fur- 
 therest limit of what can be suggested to a Sover- 
 eign State which is the ally of Germany. The pro- 
 posals made by the German Government in Vienna 
 were conceived entirely on the lines suggested by 
 Great Britain, and the German Government rec- 
 ommended them in Vienna for their serious con- 
 sideration. They were taken into consideration 
 in Vienna this morning. During the deliberations 
 of the (Austrian) Cabinet, and before they were 
 concluded, the German ambassador in St. Peters- 
 burg reported the mobilization of the entire Rus- 
 sian army and fleet. 
 
 " 'Owing to this action on the part of Russia 
 the Austrian answer to the German proposals for 
 mediation, which were still under consideration, 
 was not given. This action on thepart of Russia 
 is also directed against Germany, that is to say, 
 the Power whose mediation had been invoked by 
 the Russian Emperor. We were bound to reply 
 with serious count ermeasures to this action, which 
 we were obliged to consider as hostile, unless we 
 
66 Causes and Consequences 
 
 were prepared to endanger the safety of our 
 country. We are unable to remain inactive in 
 face of the Russian mobilization on our frontier. 
 We have therefore informed Russia that unless she 
 were prepared to suspend within twelve hours the 
 warlike measures against Germany and Austria 
 we should be obliged to mobilize, and this would 
 mean war. We have asked France if she would 
 remain neutral during a German-Russian war.' 
 
 This ends the German statement and King 
 George concludes: 
 
 "I can not help thinking that some misunder- 
 standing has produced this deadlock. I am most 
 anxious not to miss any possibility of avoiding the 
 terrible calamity which at present threatens the 
 whole world. I therefore make a personal appeal 
 to you to remove the misapprehension which I 
 feel must have occurred and to leave still open 
 grounds for negotiation and possible peace. 
 
 "If you think I can in any way contribute to that 
 all-important purpose, I will do everything in 
 my power to assist in reopening the interrupted 
 conversations between the Powers concerned. I 
 feel confident that you are as anxious as I am that 
 all that is possible should be done to secure the 
 peace of the world/' 
 
 Reply of the Emperor of Russia to King George : 
 
 "I would gladly have accepted your proposals 
 
of the War of 1914 67 
 
 had not German ambassador this afternoon pre- 
 sented a note to my Government declaring war. 
 Ever since presentation of the ultimatum at Bel- 
 grade, Russia has devoted all her efforts to finding 
 some pacific solution of the question raised by 
 Austria's action. Object of that action was to 
 crush Servia and make her a vassal of Austria. 
 Effect of this would have been to upset balance of 
 power in Balkans, which is of such vital interest 
 to my Empire. 
 
 "Every proposal, including that of your Govern- 
 ment, was rejected by Germany and Austria, and 
 it was only when favorable moment for bringing 
 pressure to bear on Austria had passed that Ger- 
 many showed any disposition to mediate. Even 
 then she did not put forward any precise pro- 
 posal. Austria's declaration of war on Servia 
 forced me to order a partial mobilization, though, 
 in view of threatening situation, my military ad- 
 visers strongly advised a general mobilization 
 owing to quickness with which Germany can 
 mobilize in comparison with Russia. 
 
 "I was eventually compelled to take this course 
 in consequence of complete Austrian mobiliza- 
 tion, of the bombardment of Belgrade, of con- 
 centration of Austrian troops in Galicia, and of 
 secret military preparations being made in Ger- 
 many. That I was justified in doing so is proved 
 
68 Causes and Consequences 
 
 by Germany's sudden declaration of war, which 
 was quite unexpected by me, as I had given most 
 categorical assurance to the Emperor William that 
 my troops would not move so long as mediation 
 negotiations continued. 
 
 "In this solemn hour I wish to assure you once 
 more that I have done all in my power to avert 
 war. Now that it has been forced on me, I trust 
 your country will not fail to support France and 
 Russia. God bless and protect you." 
 
 Upon the day England declared war the German 
 Chancellor (Bethmann Hollweg) in a speech to 
 the Reichstag said: 
 
 11 Gentlemen, we are now in a state of necessity, 
 and necessity knows no law! Our troops have 
 occupied Luxemburg, and perhaps (as a matter of 
 fact the speaker knew that Belgium had been 
 invaded that morning) are already on Belgian 
 soil. Gentlemen, that is contrary to the dictates 
 of international law. It is true that the French 
 Government has declared at Brussels that France 
 is willing to respect the neutrality of Belgium as 
 long as her opponent respects it. We knew, how- 
 ever, that France stood ready for the invasion. 
 France could wait, but we could not wait. A French 
 movement upon our flank upon the lower Rhine 
 might have been disastrous. So we were compelled 
 to override the just protest of the Luxemburg 
 
of the War of 1914 69 
 
 and Belgian Governments. The wrong — I speak 
 openly — that we are committing we will endeavor 
 to make good as soon as our military goal has been 
 reached. Anybody who is threatened, as we are 
 threatened, and is fighting for his highest posses- 
 sions can have only one thought — how he is to 
 hack his way through (wie er sich durchhaut)!" 
 
 In view of Germany's demand for the payment 
 of a large sum of money from Brussels as "indem- 
 nity," because she objected to Germany's disre- 
 gard of her justifiable protest, it is rather dif- 
 ficult to know just what value one should attach 
 to the words "to make good." 
 
 The German Chancellor is mistaken. Every 
 necessity is bound and often created by law. If 
 there were no necessities, there would be little 
 need for law. France and England were parties 
 to the treaty guaranteeing Belgian neutrality, 
 which Germany has now* violated. Upon the day 
 of Sedan, Napoleon Third and the French nation 
 were in an hour of dire necessity; the calamitous 
 surrender could have been averted by a temporary 
 penetration into Belgium of but a few miles, but 
 Napoleon considered the honor of his nation para- 
 mount to any military exigency, and refused to 
 save his dynasty and army by the sacrifice of 
 national obligations, t 
 
 * See appendix, f For Austria's side of the controversy see note p. 128. 
 
70 Causes and Consequences 
 
 CHAPTER VI 
 THE DECLARATION OF WAR 
 
 On Tuesday, the 4th of August, Great Britain 
 declared war upon Germany. The reasons for 
 which this momentous step was taken are em- 
 bodied in a speech delivered in the House of Com- 
 mons two days later by Mr. Asquith, the Prime 
 Minister, and, at that moment, the Secretary of 
 War. 
 
 Mr. Asquith said: "In asking the House to agree 
 to the resolution to vote £100,000,000 I do not 
 propose, because I do not think it is necessary, to 
 traverse the ground again which was covered by 
 Sir Edward Grey two or three nights ago." 
 
 Mr. Asquith then read extracts from the diplo- 
 matic correspondence published on Thursday, be- 
 ginning with the communication made by the 
 German Chancellor to Sir Edward Goschen on 
 July 29 which contained, the Prime Minister said, 
 "the terms on which it was sought to buy our 
 neutrality — a promise to leave France intact if 
 beaten. 
 
 "Sir Edward Goschen," continued Mr. Asquith, 
 "proceeded to put a very pertinent question to the 
 German Chancellor: 'I questioned his Excellency 
 about the French Colonies?' What are the French 
 
of the War of 1914 71 
 
 Colonies ? They mean every part of the dominions 
 and possessions of France outside the geographical 
 area of Europe. The Chancellor said he was not 
 able to give such an undertaking with regard to 
 those colonies as he was prepared to give in regard 
 to French territory. 
 
 "Let me come to what in this matter in my 
 opinion is the crucial and governing consideration, 
 namely, the position of the small states. As re- 
 gards Holland, his Excellency said so long as 
 Germany's adversaries respected the integrity and 
 neutrality of the Netherlands, Germany was 
 ready to give his Majesty's Government an assur- 
 ance that she would do likewise. 
 
 "Then I come to Belgium. It depended upon the 
 action of France what operations Germany would 
 be forced to enter upon in Belgium, but when the 
 war was over Belgium's integrity would be re- 
 spected if she had not sided against Germany. 
 Let the House observe the distinction between the 
 two cases. An assurance is given as regards the 
 independence and neutrality of Holland, but as 
 regards Belgium there is no mention of neutrality 
 at all, but an assurance that when the war is over 
 her integrity will be respected if she had not sided 
 against Germany. 
 
 "What does this all amount to? I ask the House 
 not with the object of inflaming passions, not with 
 
72 Causes and Consequences 
 
 the object of exciting feeling against Germany, 
 but simply to make clear the position of the Brit- 
 ish Government. What did the proposal amount 
 to? In the first place, it meant that behind the 
 back of France, who was not to be made a party 
 to these communications at all, we should have 
 given, if we had assented to these proposals, a 
 free license to Germany to annex in the event of 
 a successful war the whole of the extra-European 
 dominions in the possession of France. 
 
 "What did it mean as regards Belgium? To 
 Belgium, when she addressed, as she did in the 
 last three days, the moving appeal to us to fulfill 
 our solemn guarantee of her neutrality, what was 
 our position: What reply could we have given to 
 that appeal if we were obliged to say that without 
 her knowledge we had bartered away to the 
 Powers which threatened her an obligation to keep 
 our plighted word? 
 
 "The House and the country have read in the 
 course of the last few hours the pathetic words of 
 the Belgian King to his people. I do not think any 
 man can have read that appeal with an unmoved 
 heart. The Belgians are fighting — losing their 
 lives. What would have been the position of Great 
 Britain today in the face of that spectacle if we 
 had assented to this infamous proposal? What 
 were we to get in return for this betrayal of our 
 
of the War of 1914 73 
 
 friends and this dishonouring of our obligations? 
 We were to get promises, nothing more, promises 
 made by a Power which, I am very sorry to say, 
 was at that very moment announcing its inten- 
 tion to violate its own treaty and was asking us to 
 do the same. If we had done that this country 
 would have been forever dishonoured. 
 
 "I am entitled to say on behalf of this country — 
 I speak not for a party but for the country as a 
 whole — that we made every effort any Govern- 
 ment could possibly make, and that war has been 
 forced upon us. What is it that we are fighting for? 
 No one knows better than the Government the 
 terrible, the incalculable suffering, economic, social, 
 personal, political, which war, and especially war 
 between the Great Powers of the world, must 
 entail. 
 
 "There is not a man among us sitting on this 
 bench (i. e. y an adherent of the party in power) 
 in these trying days — more trying perhaps than 
 any body of statesmen for a hundred years has 
 had to pass through — who has not during the 
 whole of this time had clearly before his vision, 
 the suffering, the almost brutal suffering, which 
 war must bring not only to us who are living in 
 this country and in the other countries of Europe, 
 but to posterity and the whole prospect of Eu- 
 ropean civilization. Every step we took we took 
 
Cause sand Consequences 
 
 with that vision before our eyes and with that 
 responsibility which it is impossible to describe in 
 words. 
 
 "If in spite of all our efforts for peace and with 
 that full and overpowering consciousness of the 
 results, if the issue were decided in favour of war, 
 we have thought it nevertheless to be the duty as 
 well as the interest, of this country to go to war, 
 the House may be well assured it is because we 
 believe we were unsheathing our sword in a just 
 cause. If I am asked what we are fighting for I 
 can reply in two sentences. In the first place, to 
 fulfill a solemn international obligation — an ob- 
 ligation which if it had been entered into between 
 private persons in the ordinary concerns of life 
 would have been regarded as an obligation not 
 only law but of honour, and which no self- 
 respecting man could possibly have repudiated. I 
 say, secondly, that we are fighting to vindicate the 
 principle, in these days when material force some- 
 times seems to be the dominant influence and 
 factor in the development of mankind, that small 
 nationalities are not to be crushed in defiance of 
 international good faith at the arbitary will of a 
 strong and over-mastering Power. 
 
 "I do not think any nation ever entered into a 
 great conflict — and this is one of the greatest that 
 history will ever know — with a clearer conscience 
 
of the War of 1914 75 
 
 and a stronger conviction that it is fighting not for 
 aggresion, not for the maintenance of its own sel- 
 fish interests, but in defence of principles the main- 
 tenance of which is vital to the civilization of the 
 world. If with full conviction not only of the wis- 
 dom and justice but of the obligation which lay 
 upon us to challenge this great issue, if we are 
 entered into the struggle, let us now make sure 
 that all the resources, not only of the United King- 
 dom but of the vast Empire of which it is the 
 center shall be thrown into the scale. 
 
 "It is that that object may be adequately secured 
 that I am now about to ask this committee to give 
 the Government a vote of credit for a hundred 
 millions sterling. As rule in the past votes of this 
 kind have been taken simply for naval and mili- 
 tary operations, but we have thought it right to 
 ask the House that this money may be applied not 
 only for strictly naval and military operations but 
 for assisting the food supply, promoting the con- 
 tinuance of trade, industry, business, and com- 
 munication, whether by means of insurance or 
 indemnity against risk or otherwise, for the re- 
 lief of distress and generally for all expenses aris- 
 ing out of the existence of a state of war. 
 
 "I believe the committee will agree with us that 
 it was wise to extend the ambit of the vote of 
 credit in this way. It gives the Government a free 
 
76 Causes and Consequences 
 
 hand. Of course, the Treasury will account, and 
 any expenditure that takes place will be subject 
 to the approval of the House, but it would be a 
 great pity, and even a great disaster, if in a crisis 
 of this magnitude we were not enabled to make 
 provision, far more needed now than under the 
 simpler conditions which prevailed in the old 
 days, for all the expenditure which the existence 
 of a state of war between the Great Powers of 
 Europe must entail upon any one of them. 
 
 "I am asking also in the character which I pos- 
 sessed until this morning, that of Secretary of 
 State for War, for a Supplementary Estimate for 
 men in the army. Allow me to say — it is a per- 
 sonal matter — that I took upon myself the office 
 of Secretary of State for War under conditions — 
 I won't go back to them — which are fresh in the 
 memory of everybody, in the hope and with the 
 object that a condition of things in the army which 
 all of us deplored might speedily be brought to 
 an end and complete confidence re-established. 1 
 believe that is the case. I know it is the case. 
 There is no more loyal and united body, no body 
 in which the spirit and habit of discipline is more 
 deeply engrained and cherished than in the Brit- 
 ish army. 
 
 "Glad as I should be to continue the work of the 
 office, and would have done so under normal con- 
 
of the War of 1914 77 
 
 ditions, it would not be fair to the army or just 
 to the country that any Minister should divide 
 his attention between that department and the 
 other, and still less that the first Minister of the 
 Crown, who has to look into the affairs of all the 
 departments and is ultimately responsible for the 
 whole policy of the country, should give, as he 
 can only give, a perfunctory attention to the af- 
 fairs of our army in a great war. 
 
 "I am glad to say that the very distinguished 
 soldier and administrator, Lord Kitchener, with 
 the public spirit and patriotism which everyone 
 would expect from him, at my request has stepped 
 into the breach. Lord Kitchener, as everybody 
 knows, is not a politician. His association with the 
 Government as a member of the Cabient for this 
 purpose must not be taken as in any way identi- 
 fying him with any set of political opinions. He 
 has, in a great public emergency, responded to a 
 great public call, and I am certain he will have 
 with him, in the discharge of one of the most 
 arduous tasks which have ever fallen to a Minister, 
 the complete confidence of men of all parties. 
 
 "I am asking on his behalf, for the army, power 
 to increase the number of men of all ranks, in 
 addition to the number already voted, by no less 
 than a half a million. I am certain the House will 
 not refuse us that. We are encouraged to ask for 
 
78 Causes and Consequences 
 
 it not only by our own sense of the gravity and 
 the necessities of the case, but by the knowledge 
 that India is prepared to send us certainly two 
 divisions, and every one of our self-governing 
 dominions spontaneously and unasked, has already 
 tendered to the utmost limit of their possibilities, 
 both in men and in money, every help that they 
 can afford to the Empire in a moment of supreme 
 trial. The Mother- country must set the example 
 while she responds with gratitude and with af- 
 fection to these filial overtures from the outlying 
 members of our family. 
 
 "This is not an occasion for controversial dis- 
 cussion. In what I have said I believe I have not 
 gone beyond the strict requirements of the truth. 
 It is not my purpose, it is not the purpose of any 
 patriotic man, to inflame feeling, to indulge in 
 rhetoric, to excite international animosities. The 
 situation is far too grave for that. We have got a 
 great duty to perform. We have got a great trust 
 to fulfill, and I am confident that Parliament and 
 the country will enable us to do it." 
 
 Mr. Bonar Law said he would have liked to 
 leave Mr. Asquith's speech as the expression of the 
 views of a nation and not of a party, but he 
 thought it well that the atittude of the opposition 
 should be defined to the country. "In our belief 
 we are in a state of war against our will and after 
 
of the War of 1914 79 
 
 we as a nation had done everything in our power 
 to prevent such a condition of things arising." 
 He had said that he never believed that a war with 
 Germany was inevitable and that if it came it 
 would be due to human folly. "It is due to human 
 folly and to human wickedness," he observed 
 impressively, "but neither the folly nor the wicked- 
 ness is here. 
 
 "For years everyone has known that the key of 
 peace or war lay in Berlin, and at this crisis Berlin, 
 if it had chosen, could have prevented this ter- 
 rible conflict. But I am afraid the miscalculation 
 that was made about Russia ('Russia is not in a 
 condition to go to war,' the German ambassador 
 said) , was made about us. The despatch which has 
 been referred to is not one that would have been 
 addressed to us if it had been believed that our 
 hand was free and that we held the position which 
 we had always held before. We are fighting, as 
 the Prime Minister has said, for the honour, and 
 with the honour has always been bound up the 
 interest of the country, but we are fighting also 
 for the whole basis of the civilization for which 
 Europe stands. 
 
 "Look at the way in which Belgium is being 
 treated today! If it is not true now it may be true 
 tomorrow, that the city of Liege is invaded by the 
 Germans and that civilians, as in the days of the 
 
80 Causes and Consequences 
 
 Middle Ages, are fighting for their hearths and 
 homes against trained troops. In a state of war, 
 war must be waged, but this plan is not of today 
 or yesterday. It has been long matured. The 
 Germans were ready to take the course which 
 they have taken of saying to Belgium: 'Destroy 
 your independence; let our troops go through or 
 we will come down upon you with a might which 
 it is impossible for you to resist.' It we had allowed 
 that to be done our position as one of the great 
 nations of the world would have been lost. This 
 is no small struggle. It is the greatest perhaps 
 that this country has been engaged in, and the 
 issue is uncertain. It is Napoleonism once again, 
 but, thank Heaven, so far as we know there is no 
 Napoleon." 
 
 Passing from the cause of the war, Mr. Bonar 
 Law turned to the question of food supply, re- 
 peating the comforting assurance that there was 
 no danger of scarcity, but only the danger of a 
 fear of scarcity. He sounded one note of warning. 
 "This war, unexpected by us, is not unexpected 
 by our enemies, and I shall be greatly surprised if 
 we do not find that at first on our trade routes 
 there is a destruction of our property. That is 
 inevitable, I think, at the outset. Let us be pre- 
 pared for it, and let us realize that it has no bear- 
 ing whatever on the ultimate course of the war. M 
 
of the War of 1914 81 
 
 He did not wish to be unduly optimistic but he 
 felt there was a real danger of our taking too 
 gloomy a view of the situation. "Five-sixths of 
 our production is consumed in the home trade. 
 After all, the total amount of our exports to the 
 European countries now at war is only a small 
 part of our export trade. In my belief — I have 
 not looked at the figures — they do not exceed the 
 exports to India and Australia taken alone. If 
 our trade routes are maintained we shall have our 
 trade with the colonies and with the North Ameri- 
 can Continent, and unfortunately for them none 
 of our enemies will be able to compete with us in 
 those markets. I think, therefore, that while we 
 have no right to believe that trade will be good, it 
 will be much more nearly normal than is general- 
 ly believed." Finally Mr. Bonar Law said any 
 member of the opposition would be glad to serve 
 the Government and the country to the best of 
 his ability if his assistance was desired. 
 
 When the motion for the war credit of £100,- 
 000,000 was put not a single voice was raised 
 against it, and it was declared carried amid loud 
 cheers. 
 
 Without discussion the House voted 500,000 
 additional men for the army and 67,000 for the 
 navy. 
 
 A proclamation was issued on Tuesday night 
 
82 Causes and Consequences 
 
 prohibiting the exportation of war stores and goods 
 from the United Kingdom. 
 
 A formal declaration of war upon Austria was 
 made by Great Britain upon August 12. 
 
 On the 23rd of August Japan declared war upon 
 Germany, and commenced a bombardment and 
 siege of Kiaochow, Germany's only possession on 
 the Yellow Seas ; it is leased from China, comprises 
 about 200 square miles with a white population 
 of about 5,000. As in all such cases, the white 
 population is strictly German. Germany's colonies 
 are only for exploitation by Germany. Japan's 
 action is of inestimable importance to Great 
 Britain as it relieves that country of any embar- 
 rassment in connection with the protection of her 
 Indo-Chinese trade. 
 
 On September 4, Russia, France and Great 
 Britain signed an agreement that none of the 
 three would make peace without the consent 
 of all three nations. Following is the text of the 
 protocol: 
 
 "The undersigned, duly authorized thereto by 
 their respective governments, hereby declare as 
 follows : 
 
 "The British, French, and Russian Governments 
 mutually engage not to conclude peace separately 
 during the present war. The three governments 
 agree that when the terms of peace come to be 
 
of the War of 1914 83 
 
 discussed, no one of the allies will demand condi- 
 tions of peace without the previous agreement of 
 each of the other allies. 
 
 "In faith whereof the undersigned have signed 
 this declaration and have affixed thereto their 
 seals. 
 
 "Done at London, in triplicate, this fifth day of 
 September, 1914. 
 "E GREY, 
 
 "British Secretary for Foreign Affairs. 
 'PAUL CAMBON, 
 
 'French Ambassador to Great Britain. 
 BENCKENDORFF, 
 Russian Ambassador to Great Britain.' 1 
 
 
84 Causes and Consequences 
 
 CHAPTER VII 
 ENGLAND'S COLONIES 
 
 In her hour of peril, Britain's children, "beyond 
 the seas," have rallied to her aid. 
 
 Upon the eve of the war, Canada, through the 
 Duke of Connaught, despatched the following 
 message from Ottawa to the home government: 
 
 "My Government (the Canadian Government) 
 desire me to send you the following: 
 
 "My advisers, while expressing the most earn- 
 est hope that a peaceful solution of existing inter- 
 national difficulties may be achieved, and their 
 strong desire to cooperate in every possible way 
 for that purpose, wish me to convey to his Majes- 
 ty's Government the firm assurance that, if un- 
 happily war should ensue, the Canadian people 
 will be united in a common resolve to put forth 
 every effort and to make every sacrifice neces- 
 sary to ensure the integrity and maintain the 
 honour of our Empire." 
 
 The Governor of New Zealand cabled: 
 
 "With great enthusiasm and with the acclama- 
 tion of all parties in Parliament tonight the Prime 
 Minister made a declaration, which was seconded 
 by Sir Joseph Ward, to the effect that, if necessity 
 unfortunately arose, New Zealand was prepared 
 
of the War of 1914 85 
 
 to send her utmost quota of help in support of the 
 Empire. I am desired to convey these sentiments 
 to his Majesty the King and to the Imperial 
 Government. 
 
 "I will telegraph both utterances later." 
 
 Australia and India have sent similar assur- 
 ances. 
 
 These promises of aid were rapidly fulfilled. 
 At the end of September, a completely equipped 
 Indian Army of 70,000 men commanded by 
 British officers landed at Marseille and were 
 rushed to the fighting line near Paris. 
 
 On October 1st, 31,300 Canadian soldiers and 
 8,000 horses were embarked at Rimouski (on the 
 St. Lawrence) for some port in the English chan- 
 nel. 
 
 Thirty-one ships were required to carry the 
 men, the guns, the horses and the supplies of the 
 overseas expeditionary force. To convoy that 
 number of ships a fleet of eleven war vessels was 
 requisitioned, the whole movement being the 
 largest and most important ever effected. 
 
86 Causes and Consequences 
 
 CHAPTER VIII 
 THE LAND FORCES 
 
 Napoleon began his Russian campaign in 1812 
 with an army 600,000 strong, made up of con- 
 tingents from France, Italy, the minor German 
 States, Holland, Poland, Switzerland, the Adri- 
 atic provinces, and elsewhere. Rumania, with a 
 population of seven millions, could mobilize a 
 larger force than this cosmopolitan host which 
 Napoleon drew from half Europe. The great 
 battles of Blenheim, Austerlitz, Jena, and the 
 rest were fought with armies which represented 
 less than 1 per cent, sometimes not half or a 
 quarter per cent, of the peoples whose fate they 
 decided. The Germans call the battle of Leipzig 
 the Volkerschlacht, the Battle of the Nations. 
 The nations were Austria, Prussia, Russia, and 
 Sweden, with a combined population which could 
 not have been less than 120,000,000. They opened 
 the campaign with an army of about 500,000 men, 
 which is not much more than Bulgaria sent into 
 the field against Turkey. 
 
 Compare with these figures those of the armed 
 multitudes which are now to be arrayed against 
 one another. The full war strength of Russia 
 when mobilization is complete will be over 
 
of the War of 1914 87 
 
 5,000,000 of men. That of Great Britain, excluding 
 her colonies, and India, 600,000; that of Germany 
 approximately 4,000,000; that of France, under 
 the new military system, should be well over 
 3,500,000; that of Austria-Hungary between 
 2,000,000 and 2,500,000; Servia is supposed to be 
 able to put into the field between 300,000 and 
 400,000 men. Here we get the truly colossal total 
 of something like 14,000,000 of men embodied for 
 military service. They will not all be in the fight- 
 ing line, of course; they will not even be all armed; 
 many of the contingents of the Austrian Landsturm 
 reservists up to the age of forty-two, whom the 
 Emperor has called out, are unarmed and unregi- 
 mented. But they will all be brought away from 
 their ordinary occupations ; they will be withdrawn 
 from productive industry; they will be at the dis- 
 posal of the military authorities; the great majority 
 of them will be taking part in the campaigns, either 
 at the front or in holding lines of communication, 
 garrisoning fortresses, guarding war-like stores, 
 depots, and prisoners, acting as gendarmerie and 
 special police to maintain internal order; or as- 
 sisting in the transport, supply, medical, and 
 technical services. To the 14,000,000 of men we 
 may add perhaps another million of women, who 
 will be in the Red Cross detachments and at the 
 base hospitals, or even with the field ambulances. 
 
88 Causes and Consequences 
 
 Such is the first tremendous draft which modern 
 warfare makes upon the human resources of the 
 belligerent peoples. 
 
 In the past the comparatively small armies of 
 professional or mercenary soldiers could conduct 
 their operations without making the heaviest in- 
 roads upon the general vitality. A great part of 
 the territory might remain almost unaffected, 
 though 100,000 men were fighting in one corner. 
 The armies marched and countermarched, leav- 
 ing a broad ribbon of devastation on either side 
 of their track; but for the mass of the population 
 daily life could be maintained under something 
 like normal conditions. The peasant hoed and 
 reaped, the trader sold his wares, though the 
 blood-tax lay heavy upon them both. Even in 
 France, in the very stress of the Napoleonic wars, 
 it is strange to find from the memoirs of the period 
 how little the ordinary framework of society had 
 been disturbed; and in England, says Mr. Sidney 
 Low, in the London Daily Mail, "we went on 
 with our country life, our busy urban industry, 
 our sports, our amusements, our political contro- 
 versies, all through the great struggle. In the very 
 thick of the fight we found time to vote at parlia- 
 mentary elections, to attend boxing matches and 
 race meetings, to read Scott and Byron." 
 
 In the new war it must be otherwise. There is 
 
of the War of 1914 89 
 
 not a household, a workshop, a farm, a peasant's 
 cottage that will not be involved directly in the 
 operations. In a country like Servia every adult 
 man between the ages of twenty and fifty will be 
 in arms. Servia may not feel that so much as com- 
 munities with a more complex civilization. But 
 what of Germany, Austria, France? If ever 
 3,000,000 men are embodied under the tricolour of 
 the Republic, that means that one male French- 
 man out of three, of all ages and classes, will be in 
 the ranks. There will not be a family in France 
 which has not a father, a husband, a son, a brother, 
 a breadwinner of some kind withdrawn from his 
 home and work, turned into a purely military 
 instead of a social and industrial unit for so long 
 as the campaign may endure. 
 
 And the new warfare differs from the old not 
 merely in the numbers engaged but in the condi- 
 tions under which it is conducted. In the past the 
 armies were to a great extent self-supporting or 
 locally supplied. True, munitions of war and many 
 other things had to be forwarded to them, and there 
 was "post-haste and romage through the land," 
 even in Shakespeare's time, to keep them equipped. 
 But in these days the whole energies of the nation 
 must be employed on the work. Though the 
 fighting may be performed on the Danube, or the 
 Vistula, or among the passes of the Vosges, there 
 
90 Causes and Consequences 
 
 will not be a railway porter in the centre of Ger- 
 many or the remote interior of Russia who will 
 not be concerned in it. 
 
 To keep the host of three or four millions armed, 
 clothed, doctored, and provisioned the entire 
 energies of the entire non-combatant population 
 must be engaged. Not a letter can be posted in a 
 Vienna suburb, not a pint of petrol sold in a Berlin 
 grocery, without regard to the military necessi- 
 ties. From Vladivostock to Brest every railway 
 time-table, if, indeed, any trains other than troop 
 trains are run at all, must be regulated by the 
 same considerations. In China when the Japanese 
 were winning their easy victories over the Imperial 
 troops it is said that there were many millions of 
 peasants who did not know there was a war and had 
 never heard of Japan. That is how things may be 
 when society is still in the stable, primitive state, 
 when war is an affair of Government and soldiers. 
 But with the war of the peoples, such as the allies 
 are now facing, there is no house that will be spared, 
 though it be hundreds of leagues from the place of 
 slaughter, there is no man or woman who will be 
 left untouched. 
 
 This is the real problem that lies before the Gov- 
 ernments of the Continent of Europe, if not that 
 of England. War has been closely studied in all 
 its aspects for years past by the strategists, the 
 
of the War of 1914 91 
 
 scientists, the tacticians. But have they seriously 
 worked out the results of the social and economic 
 disorganization that must ensue upon this levee 
 en masse of entire populations? Nobody, indeed, 
 can forecast what will happen when three hundred 
 millions of civilized people are confronted with a 
 cataclysm for which the past can offer no parallel. 
 But it is on these factors, appalling and incompre- 
 hensible in their magnitude, more] even than on 
 the skill of the generals or the valor of the soldiers, 
 that the issue of the world-conflict will turn. 
 
92 Causes and Consequences 
 
 CHAPTER IX 
 
 THE SEA POWER 
 
 Upon the 31st day of July, 1914, four days 
 before England declared war, her huge fleet left 
 the shores under "secret" orders. The destina- 
 tion of this huge "armada" may be readily guessed, 
 when we remember the function of England's 
 navy. It is to safeguard England's seaborne 
 commerce and to keep open to her carriers the 
 highways through which her supplies must travel — 
 supplies not only of food but of fighting men from 
 her distant colonies. This purpose could only 
 be served by destroying Germany's powerful 
 navy or "bottling it up" in its home waters at 
 Hamburg, Wilhelmshaven, Cuxhaven and Kiel. 
 
 The "Home Fleet" thus sent forth was the 
 largest ever assembled under one flag. It was 
 manned by more than two hundred thousand 
 men. It comprised sixty battleships; twelve 
 battle cruisers; fifty-four cruisers; one hundred 
 and eighty-four torpedo vessels, fifty-eight sub- 
 marines and ninety-five auxilliary craft. 
 
 If England succeeds in thus impounding the 
 German fleet and keeping it in this comparatively 
 innocuous condition until the close of the war, her 
 vast expenditures incurred in the maintenance of 
 
of the War of 1914 93 
 
 her naval supremacy may be justified by attrib- 
 uting to it the preservation of her national life. 
 
 Great Britain now has "in commission" sixty 
 battleships, twenty of which are of the "dread- 
 naught" or "super-dreadnaught" type. The small- 
 est of these twenty heavy gun ships are the "Aga- 
 memnon" and "Lord Nelson," launched, respec- 
 tively, six and five years ago; they are each of 
 16,000 tons displacement, 16,750 horse-power 
 and have a coal capacity of 2,500 tons. Speed 
 18 knots, 4 to 12 inches of armor belt and from 8 
 to 12 inches protection shields for the big guns. 
 The armament consists of 4 12 -inch, 10 9. 2 -inch 
 and 24 3 -inch rapid fire, and 5 machine guns. 
 They have 5 torpedo tubes. In the same year 
 that the "Lord Nelson" left the stocks (1909), 
 three ships of the same type were launched but 
 they were of 18,600 tons displacement, greater 
 speed (21 knots), and of heavier armament and 
 horse-power; and so, each succeeding year has 
 witnessed an almost — but not quite — uninter- 
 rupted increase in these four features; size, arma- 
 ment, speed and horse-power, culminating in the 
 "Queen Mary" with a displacement of 27,000 
 tons, 28 knots speed and 75,000 horse-power. - 
 
 Even more powerful than the "super-dread- 
 noughts" are the ten new "battle cruisers," nine 
 of which are being rushed to completion and one 
 
94 Causes and Consequences 
 
 of which, "The Tiger," is afloat. She has 28,000 
 tons displacement, speed of 30 knots and turbines 
 capable of putting forth 110,000 horse-power 
 with correspondingly greater bunker capacity 
 and armament. 
 
 In active service there were at the beginning 
 of hostilities thirty-four armored crusiers of high 
 speed to be used for general service; scouting 
 supplies, commerce destroying. They are unable, 
 for lack of sufficient armament, to cope in battle 
 with a German battleship, but have sufficient 
 speed (21 knots) to out-foot most of them. The 
 Aboukir, Cressy and Hogue, destroyed by a 
 German submarine while this book was in press, 
 were of the six earliest and least efficient vessels 
 of this type. 
 
 An important arm of the service is represented 
 by two hundred and thirty-two destroyers, of 
 which one hundred and thirty-four are the sea- 
 going type, oil burners and of a speed of from 30 
 to 35 knots. All exceed 700 tons displacement, 
 sixteen of them are from 120 to 1,350 tons. One 
 (the Swift) has a displacement of 2,170 tons, 
 30,000 horse-power and a speed of 36 knots. The 
 destroyers are armed with 4-inch guns and carry 
 21-inch torpedo tubes. The torpedoes have a 
 range of about five nautical miles at an average 
 speed of 24 knots. 
 
of the War of 1914 95 
 
 The Navy of France ranks fourth in the world. 
 It is probable that the part played by the French 
 ships in the war will be extremely inconspicuous 
 and supremely useful as it will liberate British 
 ships from the Mediterranean and allow Great 
 Britain to concentrate almost her entire naval 
 strength where it is most needed; the English 
 Channel and the North Sea. 
 
 The naval strength of Austria may be dis- 
 regarded as the overwhelming preponderance of 
 French "sea power" in the Mediterranean make 
 the few battleships and cruisers belonging to the 
 dual-monarchy a negligible factor. Russia's naval 
 force may be as summarily dismissed. The most 
 useful function of the Russian ships is being 
 performed in laying mines to protect Russian 
 harbors. 
 
 Germany's naval strength to that of Great 
 Britain is about as five to eight. The difference 
 is in numerical preponderance. Ships of the 
 two countries of the same class compared, ship 
 to ship, show but little differences. 
 
96 Causes and Consequences 
 
 CHAPTER X 
 
 THE FINANCIAL RESOURCES OF THE GREAT 
 
 POWERS 
 
 War nowadays is a matter of finance as well as 
 of arms, and in a prolonged campaign financial 
 resources would count as much as military skill. 
 
 The importance of the financial factor has never 
 been more obvious than it is now, when the threat 
 of a great European war has thrown every Con- 
 tinental Bourse into a state of demoralization and 
 paralysis. London alone has refrained so far from 
 suspending its financial functions, and even here 
 the panic on the Continent has produced an un- 
 precedented restriction of dealing. 
 
 When so vital a part of the financial structure is 
 in danger of breaking down, all the usual data 
 that go to indicate a nation's financial resources 
 become to a great extent valueless, but they are 
 still of use for purposes of rough comparison. 
 
 Of the amount of hard cash that the countries 
 of Europe have at their command the returns of 
 the State banks are the best guide we have. 
 According to the last weekly returns these are the 
 amounts of coin and bullion held by the central 
 banks of the B.ve greatest Powers: 
 
 Austria $321,000,000 
 
 France 948,500.000 
 
of the War of 1914 97 
 
 Germany $422,500,000 
 
 Great Britain 201,000,000 
 
 Russia 872,500,000 
 
 These could only become available as a war 
 chest if their primary functions as a backing for 
 paper currency and credit were suspended. They 
 are of greatest value when exercising those func- 
 tions. Although Britain's central gold reserve is 
 the smallest, it is, as a matter of fact, the most 
 valuable because it forms the backing of an im- 
 mense volume of credit of international value. It 
 is only on the assumption that this great credit 
 system would entirely fall to the ground that 
 England should have to fall back upon her gold 
 reserve in paying for the munitions of war. 
 
 Until this almost inconceivable contingency 
 occurs credit rather than actual possession of 
 gold must be the main source of the wherewithal 
 for military operations. Even Germany's special 
 war chest of $30,000,000 counts for little while 
 credit lasts. 
 
 Despite the serious depreciation that has oc- 
 curred in British Government securities, that 
 country still commands a higher degree of credit 
 than any Continental country. The best guide to 
 the comparative credit enjoyed by the various 
 Powers is afforded by this statement of the yield 
 of interest obtainable on their leading stocks at 
 current prices: 
 
98 Causes and Consequences 
 
 Interest Yield at 
 Present Price. 
 
 Austria 4.9 % 
 
 France 3.9 % 
 
 Germany 4.16% 
 
 Great Britain 3.5 % 
 
 Russia 5 % 
 
 This, roughly speaking, means that Great Bri- 
 tain can raise money on terms 15 per cent cheaper 
 than Germany. 
 
 Moreover, in considering the comparative ability 
 of European countries to raise money it must be 
 remembered that the existence of a great war in 
 Europe would limit each Power's credit to its 
 own territories and those of its friends and allies. 
 Austria and Germany would not be able to raise 
 money in England or France. And England and 
 France are the world's great lending countries. 
 The amount of money raised in England and in 
 France year by year for the use of our own enter- 
 prises and those of foreign countries is immeasur- 
 ably greater than the corresponding amount raised 
 in other European countries. These great resources 
 would be entirely at the disposal of the British and 
 French Governments, for in no countries are the 
 holders and controllers of the purse-strings more 
 patriotic. 
 
 It is in the light of these actual new credit re- 
 sources that the existing national debts tabulated 
 in the following statement be considered: 
 
of the War of 1914 99 
 
 Austria ' $3,970,000,000 
 
 France 6,575,000,000 
 
 Germany 3,705,000,000 
 
 Great Britain 3,535,000,000 
 
 Russia 4,500,000,000 
 
 I have included Hungary's debt with the Aus- 
 tria's and Prussia's with that of the German 
 Empire. 
 
 One factor that seriously prejudices the bor- 
 rowing powers of Germany and Austria is the ex- 
 tent to which they have made use of these powers 
 in times of peace. During the past ten years, while 
 Great Britain has been paying off debt, Germany 
 and Austria-Hungary between them have in- 
 creased their national debts by the enormous sum 
 of about $1,500,000,000. 
 
 In fact, as far as financial resources go, all the 
 evidences are in favour of Great Britain. The 
 events of the past week have served to emphasize 
 the sounder foundation on which her financial 
 markets are built. With practically every Conti- 
 nental Bourse either entirely or partly suspended, 
 the London Stock Exchange was able to continue 
 its operations in face of the difficulties seriously 
 augmented by the paralysis of business abroad. 
 What applies to the Stock Exchange is true to a 
 far greater degree of the banks and the money 
 market. 
 
100 Causes and Consequences 
 
 In Germany, at the beginning of the war, there 
 was everywhere a tremendous rush for gold and a 
 tremendous rush for food supplies. For some days, 
 the private banks having already refused cash, 
 the Imperial Bank was so besieged that the doors 
 were shut early in the morning, and it was stated 
 that the officials already had more business than 
 they could handle before closing time. The food 
 shops made a wanton harvest for a few days, 
 doubling, for instance, the price of salt and sugar, 
 and charging famine prices for loaves and fancy 
 prices for tinned provisions. In reality, as regards 
 the monetary situation, there seemed to be remark- 
 able confidence, at any rate until the news of the 
 increase of the English Bank rate to 8 per cent, 
 which struck financiers like the news of a lost 
 battle. As regards food there can be no pinch yet. 
 A great deal depends upon the getting in of the 
 splendid harvest. 
 
 Germany is making an astounding drain upon 
 her financial reserves and her credit system, and 
 creating a situation which may be tolerable in 
 victory, but will be appalling in defeat. It must 
 not be forgotten that they are the preparations of 
 a country which only last year was afraid or un- 
 able to raise any more ordinary taxes, and pro- 
 ceeded to a direct confiscation of capital by way 
 of the "levy" — little or any of which, by the way, 
 
of the War of 1914 101 
 
 has yet been collected. About the collection of 
 taxes and of the' levy" nothing definite is known 
 at the time of writing. The tax-collectors have 
 for the moment been commandeered by the mili- 
 tary authorities to arrange for the billeting of 
 troops. In Berlin they were making a census of 
 accommodation . 
 
 The Reichstag on the 4th of August passed with- 
 out discussion seventeen emergency bills. The 
 first authorizes extraordinary expenditure to the 
 amount of $1,825,000,000— $1,250,000,000 from 
 loan and $75,000,000 from the Empire's stock of 
 gold and silver. I will try to group the most im- 
 portant of the other measures, taking the financial 
 measures first. 
 
 The German bank law, in order to counteract 
 an excess of bank-notes, makes the Imperial Bank 
 pay a tax of 5 per cent of the amount by which its 
 notes in circulation exceed the stock of cash. This 
 provision has now been suspended for an indefi- 
 nite period. In peace time the Imperial Bank must 
 cover the notes in circulation which are not 
 covered in cash by discounted bills with a currency 
 of not more than three months and backed by 
 three or at any rate two good names. These re- 
 strictions have been removed, and the Imperial 
 Bank of Germany can now buy bills with only 
 one signature. Further, the Bank is now allowed 
 
102 Causes and Consequences 
 
 to cover its note issue not only by discounted bills 
 but by any Imperial acceptances which fall due 
 within three months. 
 
 All the legal paper money issued by the Imperial 
 Bank now becomes legal tender, and there is no 
 distinction left between actual "bank-notes" and 
 other paper. The Imperial Bank has been relieved 
 of its obligation to hand out gold in exchange for 
 its paper. The private note-issuing banks are re- 
 lieved of their obligation to give gold in exchange 
 for their notes and are allowed to give Imperial 
 bank-notes instead. These provisions take effect 
 not from the declarations of war but from July 3 1 , 
 when the Kreigszustand was declared. In peace 
 time the Imperial Bank in Berlin and its branches 
 at Frankfort-on-Main, Konigsberg, and Munich 
 are compelled to give gold in exchange for parcels 
 of silver coins to the amount of not less than $50, 
 or of nickel or copper coins to the amount of not 
 less than $12.50. These obligations are now sus- 
 pended by an amendment of the Coinage Law. 
 This is mainly a precautionary measure. 
 
 At present the Imperial Bank is engaged in 
 satisfying the demand for silver and nickel from 
 its extraordinary resources, rather than fearing a 
 demand for gold in exchange for silver and nickel. 
 But it is calculated that, when the first rush of 
 adjustments of accounts among the public has 
 
of the War of 1914 103 
 
 passed, there will be a fresh effort to turn the 
 accumulations of silver and nickel into gold. The 
 Empire is enabled for an indefinite period to employ 
 bills (Wechsel) as an additional form of credit — 
 these bills being, of course, free from taxation. 
 Bill and cheque transactions are in Germany sub- 
 ject to restrictions unknown in other countries, and 
 there is practically no escape from the necessity to 
 present bills and cheques immediately they fall 
 due and to take action immediately they are dis- 
 honoured. The law has now been amended so as 
 to protect the holders of bills from the conse- 
 quences of the state of war, and especially of the 
 interruption of postal and other communications. 
 In order to help industry all the restrictions of 
 any importance which the Gewerbeordnung places 
 upon employment and the regulation of hours of 
 labor in particular industries have been removed. 
 This is much as if the Factory Acts and all similar 
 measures in England were to be suspended. The 
 provisions of the Sick Insurance and other Im- 
 perial Insurance Laws have been adapted to the 
 needs of war-time. The legal provisions for the 
 support of families of soldiers have been amended. 
 The German law fixes minimum rates of aid. 
 The minimum rates are only — for a wife, $2.25 a 
 month in May, June, July, August, September 
 and October, and $3.00 a month in the other 
 
104 Causes and Consequences 
 
 months of the year; for every child under 15 years 
 of age $1.50 a month. 
 
 As already reported, the export of all important 
 foodstuffs and fodder has been forbidden. The 
 Government is now empowered to suspend the 
 customs duties on food of all sorts and also to 
 remove the restrictions on food imports — for ex- 
 ample, of frozen meat. Powers have been given 
 to the local authorities to fix maximum prices of 
 foodstuffs, natural products, and fuel, and to 
 compel sales of all stocks which the owners do not 
 actually require for themselves. The local authori- 
 ties are given complete freedom to arrange matters 
 through the ordinary business channels or to con- 
 duct trade themselves. All costs of organization 
 will be deducted from the maximum prices paid 
 to holders of stocks. Practically all, if not all, the 
 German produce bourses are closed; there is in 
 Germany no provision for premature settlement of 
 long-term contracts, and therefore a law has been 
 passed enabling the Government authorities to 
 intervene whenever necessary and close bargains 
 at prices which they will fix — the difference be- 
 tween the prices so fixed and the contract prices 
 being paid by buyer or seller respectively according 
 as the contract price is higher or lower than the 
 price fixed. 
 
 Perhaps the most remarkable bill of all is that 
 
of the War of 1914 105 
 
 for the granting — up to a total amount of $375,- 
 000,000 — of loans on all sorts of stocks and securi- 
 ties. In connection with the Imperial Bank special 
 loan institutions will be set up which will issue 
 special paper (Darlehnskassenscheine). This paper 
 will be honored by the Imperial Bank and have 
 the same status as banknotes, although the public 
 is not obliged to accept it in payment. The loans 
 will run as a rule from three months and excep- 
 tionally for six months. The "loan" paper will be 
 issued in notes of $1.25, $2.50, $5 and $12.50. 
 Loans can be effected on all sorts of (not perish- 
 able) trade stock and industrial products up to 
 one-half or even two-thirds of the assessed value; 
 upon all sound German stocks and shares up to 
 something less than the market quotation; and 
 upon any other securities which the authorities 
 choose to accept. In the case of goods which are 
 subject to wide fluctuations of price, the security 
 of a third person must be given. The procedure 
 will simply be that the loans will be arranged by 
 negotiation and that the authorities will, without 
 removing stock given as security, place their seal 
 upon it. 
 
 There was a modest scheme of this sort in 1870, 
 but the whole amount then involved was only 
 $22,500,000 as compared with the present sum 
 of $375,000,000. The rate of interest is, as a rule, 
 
106 Causes and Consequences 
 
 to be something above the published rate at which 
 the Imperial Bank discounts bills. It is no doubt 
 a wonderful scheme of relief — and it should be 
 added that the loan establishments will do busi- 
 ness down to an amount so small as $25. But, 
 once again, one wonders what appalling conse- 
 quences will result if the war drags on and trade 
 remains at a standstill. 
 
of the War of 1914 107 
 
 CHAPTER XI 
 
 FOOD SUPPLIES OF THE BELLIGERENT POWERS 
 
 Europe, apart from Russia, imports annually 
 500,000,000 bushels of wheat. 
 
 Great Britain produces about 20 per cent of the 
 wheat she consumes — 250,000,000 — so, that coun- 
 try alone, accounts for 200,000,000 of Europe 
 wheat imports. She imports anmYally 1,000,000,000 
 pounds of beef and vast stores of mutton. Ger- 
 many consumes 300,000,000 bushels, and raises 
 170,000,000. Hitherto she has drawn upon Russia, 
 Roumania and America. Part of this supply will 
 now be cut off, maybe all of it. If the United 
 States insists that neutral vessels laden with wheat 
 labelled for Holland ports, but intended for de- 
 livery in Germany are exempt from seizure, and 
 England acquiesces in that view, Germany's posi- 
 tion will be greatly simplified. In any event, Russia 
 is entirely independent of outside food supplies; 
 and Prance largely so; last year she only imported 
 30,000,000 bushel of oats. 
 
 This brings us to Germany's gravest predica- 
 ment — fodder for her horses ; she has been import- 
 ing 50,000,000 bushels of oats and 100,000,000 of 
 barley, nearly all from Russia! Forage is so easily 
 destroyed by fire that it is difficult to conceive 
 
108 Causes and Consequences 
 
 of an invading force finding hay or grain in invaded 
 territory. 
 
 To summarize: Europe (excluding Russia) has a 
 deficit of wheat, 500,000,000 bushels, of oats, 
 200,000,000 bushels, of corn, 200,000,000 bushels. 
 
 If the United States is instrumental in creating 
 a merchant marine which will supply Germany's 
 needs, she may, while adding temporarily, at 
 least, to the prosperity of her citizens, become the 
 all-important factor in the prolongation of this 
 war. 
 
 If the United States does successfully engage in 
 the commercial side of this struggle, she will do so 
 because the powers adversely affected by her ac- 
 tion will deem it expedient to disregard the law of 
 ''seizure at sea" as it now stands. At present any 
 vessel owned by a belligerent (and the ultimate 
 ownership of the only vessels likely to be pur- 
 chased by the United States is vested in Germany) 
 are subject to capture even after their sale to 
 neutrals, unless such sale took place sixty days 
 prior to the declaration of war or the commence- 
 ment of hostilities. 
 
of the War of 1914 
 
 109 
 
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110 Causes and Consequences 
 
 CHAPTER XII 
 THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE WAR 
 
 In considering the alternative consequences to 
 the individual subjects of the countries involved 
 in the war of 1914, one is at once impressed by 
 their lack of proportion. If the Austro-German 
 combination is beaten by the allies, the genius of 
 the German people will not be repressed. The 
 individual will not share in the misfortune of a 
 government which is not his. The policy of Eng- 
 land, which has been to offer equal opportunities 
 to every white man, irrespective of political alle- 
 giance, within any portion of her vast empire, will 
 not nor can be changed. That policy is a funda- 
 mental part of the British Constitution. The 
 individual German prospector can still demand and 
 receive without question his "free miner's right" 
 in New South Wales, Canada, or the Gold Coast. 
 The manufacturer of toy soldiers in Bavaria will 
 still be able to market his wares abroad or to 
 establish a factory under the British flag, and 
 compete on even terms abroad with the native 
 for local markets and for local labor. No matter 
 to what cause is due this policy of the "open door" 
 to all Caucasian races, it has been profitable to 
 England and to civilization. It has made for the 
 
of the War of 1914 111 
 
 development of natural resources. No other 
 colonizing power has emulated England in this 
 respect, and no other power has been a successful 
 colonizer. The American, with abundant employ- 
 ment for capital and energy, in his own country, 
 does not realize that the broad avenues which 
 invite him to the wheat fields of Canada have no 
 counterpart in German or French Colonies. When 
 the American insurance companies were expelled 
 from Germany, after some millions of American 
 money had been expended in the "spade work" 
 of establishing them, it taught nothing except to 
 the few men officially interested. Even the Ger- 
 man has a hard time in a protectorate of his own 
 country and wisely seeks a better market for his 
 youth and energy under the English or American 
 flag. An amusing instance of this policy of repres- 
 sion was afforded when diamonds were discovered 
 in German Southwest Africa; such a development 
 in an English Colony would have meant, prob- 
 ably, wealth for the discoverer (in the adjacent 
 English territory he could have staked out, free, 
 fifty claims), and a "boom" with attendant pros- 
 perity for the neighborhood in which the dis- 
 covery was made. What happened when this 
 "good fortune" visited German territory? The 
 diamonds were declared "imperial property," a 
 score or so of persons, including the discoverer, 
 
112 
 
 Causes and Consequences 
 
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of the War of 1914 113 
 
 were arrested, searched, and in at least one case, 
 a trial upon a criminal charge of misappropriation 
 under an ex post facto law followed in Germany. 
 Naturally enough, little has since been heard of 
 the diamond mines of German Southwest Africa. 
 The German is one of the best of colonists; he is 
 a valuable acquisition to any country; but, he is 
 found in his highest value under an alien flag; he 
 should not be condemned for administrative faults 
 for which he often suffers and for which he is not 
 responsible. If Germany loses her colonies, he, 
 with the rest of mankind, will be the gainer. 
 
 Germany is an inefficient colonizer. Mr. Francis 
 Gribble, in his book entitled "Francis Joseph," 
 published in 1913, said: "The one permanent 
 peril to European peace arises du/t of the hatred 
 invariably felt for persons of German nationality 
 by races subjected to their rule. 
 
 "The trouble with the German, whether North 
 or South, is always this: that he regards himself 
 as the heaven-sent ruler of men, but can, as a 
 matter of fact, only govern in a state of siege. He 
 can win battles, and organize a civil service; but 
 he can neither assimilate or conciliate his subjects. 
 The German Empire is sometimes compared (by 
 Germans) to the Roman Empire; but the differ- 
 ence between the two is wide. The Romans, when 
 they conquered the world, made it contentedly 
 
114 Causes and Consequences 
 
 Roman. The French, similarly, when they took 
 over Savoy, made it contentedly French. But no 
 German dependency is ever contentedly German. 
 Alsace is not; nor is Schleswig-Holstein nor 
 Prussian Poland. In all these places, the German, 
 in his jack-boots, strides about among a people 
 who find his language barbarous, his 'culture' 
 ridiculous and himself an odious interloper." 
 
 If the allies win, Belgium's autonomy and terri- 
 tory will be restored to her; France will regain the 
 lost provinces of Alsace and Lorraine, which have 
 always been Gallic at heart through the burden- 
 some years of German occupation. 
 
 The Czar of Russia has pledged himself, in the 
 event of German defeat, to reconstitute the king- 
 dom of Poland. He promises to restore her ancient 
 territorial integrity and to grant her, under his 
 sceptre, complete autonomy, religious freedom, and 
 the use of her national tongue. This promise re- 
 verses at a stroke that which has been the tradi- 
 tional policy of Russia towards Poland, at all 
 events since the latter years of Alexander I., and 
 it runs counter to the whole system of "Russi- 
 fication" upon centralized principles, which has 
 been practised for so many years. Still more 
 important is its bearing on the external relations 
 of the Empire. Complicity in the partition of 
 Poland has been the chief bond between Russia, 
 
of the War of 1914 
 
 115 
 
 POLAND AS IT WAS— AND MAY BE. 
 
 Map Showing the Three Partitions of Poland, the Last of Which in 1795 Obliterated 
 the Country. In 1772 Russia, Prussia and Austria All Took a Slice of Poland. In 
 1793 Russia and Prussia Each Took Another Piece. In 1795 Russia, Prussia and 
 Austria Divided What Was Left From 1793. However, in 1815 the Congress of 
 Vienna Redivided the Spoils and Gave Poland to Russia Along a Line West of 
 Warsaw. The Section in the North marked "Sweden 1660" is now Russia. 
 
 POLAND MAY BECOME A SEMI-INDEPENDENT PRINCIPALITY AS A 
 
 RESULT OF WAR. 
 
116 Causes and Consequences 
 
 Prussia, and Austria since the close of the eight- 
 eenth century. Russia has burst that bond asunder 
 so that it can scarcely be re-knit. The partakers of 
 the spoils of Poland have regarded the repression 
 of Polish aspirations as their common interest. 
 Notwithstanding the solemn undertakings which 
 they gave at the Congress of Vienna, they have 
 denied that the fate of the kingdom and of its 
 people concerned any but themselves. In 1846, 
 when they delivered up to Austria the last shred 
 of independent Poland in the tiny Republic of 
 Krakau, they treated the remonstrances of Eng- 
 land and France with arrogant disdain. The Pol- 
 ish question was theirs and theirs only, and they 
 consulted together and acted together upon it. 
 Russia has now thrown this entire system to the 
 winds. The Czar appeals not only to the Poles 
 of Russia but to the Poles of Prussia and of Aus- 
 tria-Hungary as well. He invites the Polish sub- 
 jects of Austria and Germany to transfer their 
 allegiance to him, and he promises them reunion 
 with their brethren in Russia and national au- 
 tonomy under the Russian sceptre as their re- 
 ward. He calls upon them to undo the work of 
 Frederick the Great and Catherine and to recon- 
 stitute their ancient kingdom in its integrity with 
 the Emperor of Russia as its King. The integrity 
 of Poland, if it were fully realized, would mean the 
 
of the War of 1914 117 
 
 dismemberment of Prussia and the separation of 
 Galicia from the Hapsburg lands. It would mean 
 the annexation of the Prussian province of Posen, 
 the thrusting back of the Prussian border to the 
 Mark of Brandenburg and to Pomerania. To 
 Austro-Hungary it would mean the loss of all her 
 territory beyond the Carpathians from Silesia 
 to the Bukovina — and probably to the Roumanian 
 frontier. 
 
 If, as now* seems probable, the allies prevail 
 over the Teutons, England's attitude in the 
 matter of Germany's future territorial limits will 
 depend largely upon the disposition to be made of 
 Germany's fleet; if her battleships are sold to 
 other powers, or dismantled, England will con- 
 tend strenuously for the retention by Germany of 
 her Baltic and North Sea ports. In fact, even 
 without naval disarmament, England will be very 
 sensitive about the impairment of Germany's 
 territorial limits upon the continent. 
 
 Whether this war be prolonged or suddenly 
 abated, it is now certain that the prophecies of 
 Austria's disintegration made by the late W. T. 
 Stead and those of his son and successor will 
 be fulfilled. In the event of a swift termination 
 of the war, following the German debacle in 
 France, the Austria-Hungary dual monarchy 
 
 ♦September 21, 1914 
 
118 
 
 Causes and Consequences 
 
of the War of 1914 119 
 
 will disappear. In all likelihood Hungary will 
 live in the future as a free and independent state, 
 invested as is Switzerland with a great impor- 
 tance so far as the conservation of European 
 peace is concerned. 
 
 All of Galicia will be embodied in the New 
 Poland, to the establishment of which Russia has 
 with great prescience and opportunism, pledged 
 herself. 
 
 That portion of Slavonic Austria, south of the 
 River Drave and east of the fifteenth degree of 
 longitude (this includes all of Bosnia, Herze- 
 govina and Dalmatia), will be apportioned, in the 
 first instance at least, to Servia and Montenegro; 
 the remainder of what was Austria will probably 
 be incorporated with the New Germany. 
 
 Should Germany and Austria prevail over the 
 allies, Austria will be incorporated with the Ger- 
 man Empire, England, as the political center of 
 the British dominions will disappear; the bond of 
 British unity will be severed; petty English- 
 speaking states, uncertain as to existence, will re- 
 main in the places of Australia and Canada; Ger- 
 man militarism will over-run Europe. Brazil, 
 already Germanized, will fall more completely 
 under the influences of Teutonic diplomacy, and 
 an irritating commercial war will be declared on 
 the United States by Germany, the seat of which 
 
120 Causes and Consequences 
 
 will be that great South American State; Argen- 
 tina and Uruguay, now permeated by British 
 influence, may become involved in a war with 
 their northern neighbor, and if the latter is ac- 
 tively assisted by New and Greater Germany, 
 the River Plate Republics may also find themselves 
 under German hegemony. 
 
 Should Italy become involved in the war as an 
 ally of the members of the triple entente, and at the 
 conclusion of hostilities be among the victors, the 
 above forecast would need revision. Certainly, 
 Trieste, and its environs, already Italian in pop- 
 ulation, Istria and, probably, part of the Dal- 
 matian coast would in that event, be added 
 to the Italian territory as at present constituted. 
 
of the War of 1914 121 
 
 APPENDIX 
 
 Upon the 15th of September, 1914, the following 
 statement was issued with the authority of Sir 
 Edward Grey, secretary of state for foreign affairs, 
 with regard to the communication made by Dr. 
 von Bethmann-Hollweg, the imperial German 
 chancellor, to the press: 
 
 "'Does any one believe,' asks the German 
 chancellor, 'that England would have interfered to 
 protect Belgian freedom against France?' 
 
 "The answer is that she would unquestionably 
 have done so. Sir Edward Grey, as reported in 
 the White Paper, asked the French government 
 whether it was prepared to engage to respect the 
 neutrality of Belgium so long as no other power 
 violated it. 
 
 "The French government replied that they 
 were resolved to respect it. The assurance, it was 
 added, had been given several times and had 
 formed the subject of a conversation between 
 President Poincare and the German chancellor, 
 who entirely ignores the fact that England took 
 the same line about Belgian neutrality in 1870 
 that she has taken now. 
 
 "In 1870 Prince Bismarck, when approached 
 by England on the subject, admitted and respected 
 the treaty obligations in relation to Belgium. 
 
122 Causes and Consequences 
 
 "The British government stands in 1914 as it 
 stood in 1870. It is Herr von Bethmann-Hollweg 
 who refused to meet us in 1914 as Prince Bismarck 
 met us in 1870. The imperial chancellor finds it 
 strange that Mr. Asquith, in his Guild Hall 
 speech, did not mention the neutrality of the 
 Scandinavian countries, and suggests that the 
 reason for the omission was some sinister design 
 on England's part. 
 
 "It is impossible for any public speaker to cover 
 the whole ground in each speech. The German 
 chancellor's reference to Denmark and other 
 Scandinavian countries can hardly be considered 
 very tactful with regard to Denmark. The Danes 
 are not likely to have forgotten the part played 
 by Prussia and England, respectively, in 1863 
 and 1864, when the kingdom of Denmark was 
 dismembered, and the integrity of Norway and 
 Sweden was guaranteed by England and France 
 in the treaty of Stockholm in 1855. 
 
 "The imperial chancellor refers to the dealings 
 of Great Britain with the Boer republic and sug- 
 gests that she has been false therein to the cause 
 of freedom. 
 
 "Without going into controversies, now happily 
 past, we may recall what Gen. Botha said in the 
 South African parliament a few days ago when 
 expressing his conviction of the righteousness of 
 
of the War of 1914 123 
 
 Great Britain's cause and explaining the firm 
 resolve of the South African union to aid her in 
 every possible way. 
 
 11 'Great Britain had given them a constitution, 
 under which they could create a great nationality, 
 and had ever since regarded them as a free people 
 and as a sister state. Although there might be 
 many who in the past had been hostile to the 
 British flag, he could vouch for it that they would 
 ten times rather be under the British than under 
 the German flag.' 
 
 "The German chancellor is equally unfortunate 
 in his reference to the colonial empire. So far from 
 British policy having been 'recklessly egotistic/ 
 it has resulted in a great rally of affection and 
 common interest by all the British dominions and 
 dependencies, among which there is not one that 
 is not aiding Great Britain by soldiers or other 
 contributions, or both, in this war. 
 
 "With regard to the matter of treaty obligations 
 generally, the German chancellor excuses the 
 breach of Belgium's neutrality by military neces- 
 sity, at the same time making a virtue of having 
 respected the neutrality of Holland and Switzer- 
 land, and saying that it does not enter his head to 
 touch the neutrality of the Scandinavian countries 
 — a virtue which admittedly is only practiced in 
 the absence of temptation from self-interest and 
 
124 Causes and Consequences 
 
 military advantage does not seem greatly worth 
 vaunting. 
 
 "To the chancellor's concluding statement, that 
 to the German sword is intrusted the care of free- 
 dom for the European peoples and states, the 
 treatment of Belgium is a sufficient answer/' 
 
 NOTE TO PAGE 16 
 
 The following special cable appeared in the New York 
 Times of September 16, 1914: 
 "London, Sept., 15. — Under date of Antwerp, Sunday, 
 
 The Standard publishes this morning the following story 
 
 from a correspondent, whose good faith the editor of The 
 
 Standard guarantees, but whose name he refuses to give: 
 
 'One of the blackest pages in the invasion of Belgium is 
 the attacking of Aerschot, and the murder of the Burgo- 
 master and his son. 
 
 'I had the story from a resident of Aerschot, who is now 
 a refugee in Antwerp. He said that every word was true. 
 
 'When the German troops under Gen. von Boehn entered 
 Aerschot the one desire of the Burgomaster was to save his 
 town and people from the dreadful fate of Lou vain. He 
 awaited the Germans at the entrance to the town, and to 
 Gen. von Boehn made offers of hospitality. 
 
 'The General was gracious enough, and said that so long 
 as everybody in the place showed the quietest demeanor the 
 town and the lives of those in it were safe. If not, the 
 reprisals would be pitiless. 
 
 'The Burgomaster offered the hospitality of his own house 
 to the General and his office, rs and this was also accepted. 
 
 'Gen. von Boehn, with his Chief of Staff and another 
 officer, took up their quarters under the roof of the Mayor, 
 
of the War of 1914 125 
 
 where everything possible was done for their comfort. At 
 night the General and his officers dined with the family, 
 consisting of the Burgomaster and his wife and their son 
 and daughter. 
 
 'The meal progressed with every sign of geniality, and the 
 conduct of the officers was perfectly respectful and normal, 
 but toward the end of the dinner they drank very freely 
 and kept on drinking afterward. By the time everybody 
 had retired to bed the three Germans were all very much 
 the worse for drink. 
 
 'In the early hours of the morning the members of the 
 household were roused by a shriek from the room occupied 
 by the daughter. The son rushed in and found his sister 
 struggling in the arms of the Chief of Staff, who was still 
 tipsy. 
 
 'The young man, roused to a frenzy, attacked the scoun- 
 drel. There was a firece struggle, which ended in the son 
 shooting the Chief of Staff. 
 
 'The tragedy was witnessed by most of the household, 
 including the male and female servants, but the shot did 
 not arouse the General and the other officer, drunkenly 
 asleep in their beds. The terrified household had to wait 
 until morning for the denouement of the tragedy. 
 
 'The next morning the body of the Chief of Staff was 
 discovered by the officer. The General was terribly cold 
 in his wrath. 
 
 '"The price must be paid,' he said. 
 
 'The Burgomaster, his wife, son and daughter, and even 
 the servants, pleaded pitifully, but Gen. von Boehn knew 
 his duty. 
 
 'The Burgomaster, his son, and two men-servants were 
 put against the wall and shot. 
 
 'The carnage in the streets, with burning, hacking, and 
 stabbing followed.' 
 
 The Times on Monday reprinted from The World of 
 
126 Causes and Consequences 
 
 Sunday last an interview with Gen. von Boehn, Commander 
 of the Ninth Imperial Field Army, sent from Renaix, Bel- 
 gium, on Sept. 9, by E. Alexander Powell, The World's 
 correspondent at Antwerp. The interview, Mr. Powell 
 wrote, took place at the General's request, after he had 
 heard that Powell was collecting a list of specific, authen- 
 ticated outrages by German soldiers in Belgium territory 
 The General began by asserting that the charges agains, 
 the German troops were 'lies," Mr. Powell's story continued m 
 
 'Three days ago, General,' I said, 'I was at Aerschot' 
 The whole town now is but a ghastly, blackened ruin.' 
 
 'When we entered Aerschot,' was the reply, 'the son of 
 the;Burgomaster came into a room, drew a revolver, and 
 assassinated my Chief of Staff. What followed was only 
 retribution. The townspeople got only what they deserved.' 
 
 'But why wreak your vengence on women and children?' 
 I asked. 
 
 'None has been killed,' the General asserted positively. 
 
 The interview went on to quote Gen. von Boehn as 
 saying when told that Powell had seen their mutilated 
 bodies that the women and children must have gone into 
 the streets when firing was going on." 
 
 It would be as unwise as unfair to accept the 
 ex parte statements of her enemies as conclusive 
 proof that German troops have been guilty of 
 individual "atrocities." So far as reported cases 
 have been investigated the tendency of such 
 investigation has been to disprove them. General 
 French, himself, characterizes the charges of ill- 
 treatment of wounded captives by German soldiers 
 as "greatly exaggerated." The foregoing excerpt 
 from the New York Times is inserted here, not 
 for the purpose of showing any departure of the 
 
of the War of 1914 127 
 
 German army from a normal standard of soldiers* 
 morals in time of war, but as a thoroughly authen- 
 ticated set of facts that illustrate the peculiar 
 attitude of German militarism where a civilian, 
 no matter how provoked, kills, wounds, strikes or 
 even insults a man in German uniform. Upon 
 that point the evidence submitted above is, it is 
 true, merely cumulative. The Official records of 
 the recent Zabern affair have, it would seem 
 already, thoroughly shown to the world the 
 peculiar relation of soldier to civilian that exists 
 today in Germany alone, among all the civilized 
 nations. 
 
 No doubt every member of the "militant" — 
 now the dominant — party in Germany would 
 condemn the action of the drunken staff-officer 
 who met his death "in a room" (according to 
 General von Boehn), yet would emphatically 
 agree that it was "necessary" to kill not only the 
 brother, who had sought to protect his sister's 
 honor, but also the other male members of the 
 household who, by some strange course of German 
 military reasoning, shared his responsibility though 
 not his "guilt." 
 
 The original misdeed might have been committed 
 by a soldier serving under any flag; but, had his 
 comrades been American, French or English 
 soldiers they would have regarded the action of 
 the brother with a feeling akin to gratitude, 
 certainly with a sense of relief. 
 
128 Causes and Consequences 
 
 NOTE TO PAGES 28-69 
 
 After the first edition of this book had gone to press Austria 
 made public the following : 
 
 Austria-Hungary looks upon this war as a purely defensive 
 one, which has been forced on her by the agitation directed 
 by Russia against her very existence. Austria-Hungary 
 has given many proofs in late years of her peaceful intention. 
 She refrained from any interference with arms in the Balkan 
 War, though her interests were at stake. Subsequent 
 events have proved what a serious danger the increase in 
 territory and prestige which it brought Servia were for 
 Austria-Hungary. Servia's ambitions have since grown 
 and have been solely directed against the Dual Monarchy. 
 Russia has tacitly approved of Servia's action, because 
 Russian statesmen wish to form an iron ring of enemies 
 around Austria-Hungary and Germany in order that Russia's 
 grasp on Constantinople and on Asia should never again be 
 meddled with. 
 
 Austro-Hungarian soldiers are fighting for their homes 
 and for the maintenance of their country, the Russians are 
 fighting to help the Russian Czar to gain the rule of the 
 world, to destroy all his neighbors who may be dangerous 
 to Russian ambitions. England is helping the Russians to 
 oust her German rival. She feared for some time that 
 German culture and German scientific methods would prove 
 the stronger in a peaceful competition, and she now hopes to 
 crush Germany with the help of Russia and France. And 
 France is fighting to win back Alsace-Lorraine, to take her 
 revenge on Germany, which the French Nation has been 
 aiming at for the last forty-four years. 
 
 That is how Austria-Hungary looks upon the war. She 
 
of the War of 1914 129 
 
 never wished for territorial increase, she wished for peace 
 and that her people should develop in safety. 
 
 Germany equally has nothing to gain by a war, but Ger- 
 many knows that Austria-Hungary's enemies are her enemies 
 and that the dismemberment of the Hapsburg monarchy 
 would mean the isolation of the German Empire. 
 
 And so, after all efforts to keep Russia and England from 
 breaking the peace of Europe had failed, she drew her sword 
 to defend her and her allies' (ally's) interests. 
 
 Truth and honor are on the side of the two empires in 
 this war. The unspeakable inventions and prevarications 
 published by the French, Russian and English press in the 
 last weeks alone must prove to the American people who can 
 afford to tell the truth and nothing but the truth in this war. 
 
 The Austro-Hungarian and German people have a clear 
 conscience and need fear no misrepresentation of their 
 action." 
 
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