THE DURATION OF SCHOOL ATTENDANCE IN 
 CHICAGO AND MILWAUKEE. 
 
 DANIEL FOLKMAR, 
 
 Lale Lecturer in Social Science, University of C^'icago, 
 Fellow of Roijal Statistical Societt/, etc. 
 
 Reprinted from the Transactions of the Wisconsin Academy of Sciences, 
 Arts, and Letters, Vol. XII. 
 
 [Issued August, 1S98, in advance of general publication.] 
 
THE DURATION OF SCHOOL ATTENDANCE IN 
 CHICAGO AND MILWAUKEE. 
 
 DANIEL FOLKMAR, 
 
 Late Lecturer in Social Science, University of Chicago, 
 Fellow of Royal Statistical Society, etc. 
 
 READ BEFORE THE WISCONSIN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, 
 DECEMBER 28, 1897, 
 
-<?• 
 
 .c^^ 
 
 
TABLE OF CONTENTS. 
 
 Page. 
 
 Importance of the Question 257 
 
 Methods 258 
 
 Sources of Information 259 
 
 Deductive or Enrollment Method 261 
 
 Applied to Chicago Statistics 261 
 
 Incidental Observations 262 
 
 Applied to Milwaukee Statistics 263 
 
 Errors Balance each Other 264 
 
 Importance of Determining Limits of Error 265 
 
 Minimum Limit of Error 266 
 
 Correction for Double Enrollment 266 ' 
 
 Conclusions as to Minimum Limit 268 
 
 Inductive or Class Method 268 
 
 Corrections for Increase of Population 268 
 
 Corrections for Death Unnecessary 270 
 
 Chicago and Milwaukee Compared 270 
 
 Maximum Limit of Error 271 
 
 Final Comparison of Besults 271 
 
 ^ Average Amount of Schooling per Pupil 272 
 
 ^ Statistics of Other Cities and Countries 273 
 
 ^ Superintendent Smart and London School Board 274 
 
 Dr. W. T. Harris and Prof. C. M. Woodward 275 
 
 Superintendents White and Lane 277 
 
 Causes and Hemedies 279 
 
 Summary 280 
 
 TABLES. 
 
 Page. 
 
 I. Enrollment of Public Schools (Chicago), Fifteen Years 282 
 
 II. Average Daily Membership (Chicago), 1875-76 to 1880-81. . 283 
 
 III. Per Cent, of Enrollment in Each Grade (Chicago) 284 
 
 IV. Per Cent, of Pupils That do not Go beyond the Grade Named 
 
 (Chicago) 285 
 
256 Table of Contents. 
 
 Page 
 
 V. Per Cent, of Enrollment in Each Grade (Milwaukee) 286 
 
 VI. Per Cent, of Enrollment in Each Grade with Corrections for 
 
 Kindergarten and High School (Milwaukee) 287 
 
 VII. Per Cent, of Pupils That do not Go beyond the Grade Named 
 
 (Milwaukee) 288 
 
 VIII. Number of Pupils Promoted (Chicago) 289 
 
 IX. True, or Entrance, Enrollment (Chicago) 290 
 
 X. Method of Obtaining Population Corrections 291 
 
 XI. Population Corrections 292 
 
 XII. Estimated Per Cents of Increase of Population 293 
 
 XIII. Enrollment by Classes (Chicago), Fifteen Years 294 
 
 XIV. Corrected Enrollment by Classes (Chicago) 295 
 
 XV. Number Dropped out by End of Each Grade (Chicago) 29G 
 
 XVI. Per Cent, of First Grade Enrollment Dropped out by End of 
 
 Bach Grade (Chicago) 297 
 
 XVII. Average Per Cent, of First Grade Enrollment Dropped out by 
 
 End of Each Grade (Chicago, 298 
 
 XVIII. Influence of Death upon Duration of School Attendance. . . 299 
 
 XIX. Enrollment by Classes (Milwaukee) 300 
 
 XX. Number Dropped out by End of Each Grade (Milwaukee) . 301 
 
 XXI. Per Cent, of First Grade Enrollment Dropped out by End 
 
 of Each Grade (Milwaukee) 302 
 
 XXII. Per Cent. Dropped out after Corrections for Double Enroll- 
 
 ment (Chicago) 303 
 
 XXIII. Final Conclusions as to Per Cents that Drop Out 304 
 
 XXIV. Public and Private Schools of Chicago, 1893-94 . . '. 305 
 
 Plate I. Diagram A. Showing what Per Cent, of the Population 
 
 Leaves School at Each Grade 262 
 
THE DURATION OF SCHOOL ATTENDANCE IN CHI- 
 CAGO AND MILWAUKEE. 
 
 (with diagram— plate I.) 
 
 DANIEL FOLKMAR. 
 
 IMPORTANCE OF THE QUESTION. 
 
 Is not the question of all questions in education how to retain 
 our pupils through more years of schooling? If it can be shown 
 that pupils reach, on the average, only the third or fourth grade 
 before dropping out, have we not missed the most essential 
 point by putting the great emphasis now-a-days upon methods? 
 Is not the real question, not how shall we teach, but how much 
 shall we teach? If the average pupil has only time allowed him 
 to acquire the elements of the three "R's, " have we not erred 
 in crowding them aside by " enriching the curriculum " with 
 nature study and other new applicants for favor? Has not Dr. 
 Harris rightly interpreted the needs of civilization in his restora- 
 tion of reading, writing, and arithmetic to the leading place in 
 the course of study? ^ 
 
 These fundamental questions depend so largely upon the act- 
 ual amount of schooling that we can count upon in the case of 
 the average child, that much effort would be justified in attempt- 
 ing to determine the latter. There is probably nowhere in edu- 
 cational literature a scientific demonstration of the number that 
 drop permanently out of school at the close of each grade. 
 
 The aim of this paper is indicated above. It is to ascertain 
 at what grade the pupils in the public schools drop out — what 
 per cent, go no further than the first gi-ade, what per cent, stop 
 with the second grade, what per cent, with the primary school, 
 
 1 "Report of the Committee of Fifteen " in the Proceedings of the Na- 
 tional Educational Association, 1895, pp. 290-6. 
 17 
 
258 Folkmar — The Duration of School Attendance. 
 
 what per cent, with the grammar school, and what per cent, reach 
 the high school. 
 
 By a comparison of the facts thus ascertained with the sta- 
 tistics of other cities and of the United States as a whole, a 
 somewhat definite idea can be formed as to the total amount 
 uf schooling received by each citizen — a fact of high impor- 
 tance to the educator and to the sociologist. 
 
 METHODS. 
 
 The only exact method, but at present an impossible one, 
 would be to take a complete census of the population above the 
 school age, ascertaining in each individual case the grade with 
 which schooling ceased. Another method, quite as impossible, 
 would be to tabulate the school records previous to 1885, let us 
 say, tracing the history of each individual whose name appears 
 upon them. As a matter of fact, the Great Fire of Chicago and 
 the previous existence of a ten-grade system in each city, make 
 this method out of the question. 
 
 Reserving further suggestions upon methods, ideal or other- 
 wise, until a later stage of the discussion, I will pass at once 
 to an explanation of the methods which were actually employed 
 in this investigation. 
 
 It is evident that the only method that will cover so great a 
 multitude of cases is the statistical. Since the method of mere 
 enumeration could not be employed, resource was had to deduc- 
 tions from such statistics as were available. Two main lines or 
 methods of demonstration were employed in the study of each 
 city, the one serving as a cheek upon the other. They may be 
 designated as: (1) the Deductive, or Enrollment, method; (2) the 
 Inductive, or Class, method. 
 
 In the first, the enrollments by grades for one year or the 
 totals for a group of years, are made the basis of deduction or 
 inference as to the per cents that must have dropped out from 
 the lower grades; in the second, the enrollment of a single class 
 entering the first grade is followed from grade to grade through 
 the reports of successive years, the number that drop out at 
 each grade is noted, and from a comparison of the correspond- 
 ing facts in the history of other classes, a generalization is 
 
Sources of Information. 259' 
 
 reached inductively as to the normal number that drop out at 
 each grade. 
 
 There are, therefore, four groups of tables in the study of the 
 two cities, with a fifth group which compares the conclusions 
 thus reached with the facts collected from, other cities and 
 writers. Admitting errors in each method employed, second- 
 ary tables and considerations have been introduced: on the one 
 hand to eliminate errors so far as possible; on the other hand 
 to determine the limits of probable error, so that if per cents 
 could not be determined with absolute accuracy, statements 
 could at least be m.ade as to the maximum and minimum limits 
 within which the truth lay. 
 
 Neither through my present acquaintance with statistical 
 methods nor through the co-operation of a university instruc- 
 tor in statistics, have I been enabled to find methods ready- 
 made which were applicable to this problem. The only resource 
 was one not uncommon in scientific work, a slow process of 
 trial aud experimentation, during which more time was spent 
 upon the rejected methods than upon those finally adopted. ' 
 
 SOURCES OF INFORMATION. 
 
 To assist any who may wish to use the same material, and 
 also to explain the data upon which my inferences are based, a 
 brief statement may be made at this point as to the sources of 
 information. A large portion of the data concerning the Chi- 
 cago schools was taken from the Annual Reports of the Board 
 of Education, beginning with the year after the Great Fire, 
 1871-72, which destroyed all the previous records. Since the 
 year 1888-89, unfortunately, the school enrollment by grades 
 has not been printed, — which fact necessitated (in 1894 at the 
 
 ^ Thanks are due to Dr. Hourwich of the University of Chicago for 
 valued assistance; also to Mrs. Stevens, statistician of the Chicago Board 
 of Education, in allowing me to copy the annual returns in advance of her 
 own elaboration of them for the Annual Report, and especially in loaning 
 me the bulky files of the years 1889-93, which are the only data now in 
 existence from which may be obtained the grade enrollments for these 
 four important years. Most important of all was the co-operation of Mrs. 
 Folkmar on the Milwaukee portion of the work, since she not only elabor- 
 ated the most of the material but added important theoretical suggestions. 
 
260 Folkmar — The Duration of School Attendance. 
 
 time the Chicago portion of this paper was written) the weari- 
 some copying for many days of the manuscript reports of over 
 two hundred principals for the years 1889-94 and the adding 
 of endless columns. The figures published herewith are, 
 therefore, the only ones to be found in print.' The Chicago 
 data have not been brought down to the present year, since 
 this would necessitate not only special trips to Chicago but the 
 expenditure of a large amount of time in copying the manu- 
 script files without materially changing the results already se- 
 cured. Neither had the enrollment previous to 1879-80 been 
 published by grades, although the same regularity noticeable 
 in it may be demonstrated as far back as 1875 from the data of 
 Table II, giving the average daily membership (Chicago), 
 1875-76 to 1880-81.2 
 
 Preceding 1875 the necessary comparisons cannot be made. 
 Since a ten-grade system was in vogue until that year, the per 
 cents before and after 1875 are incommensurable. The fifteen 
 years, however, from 1880 to 1894 give a sufficient basis for 
 the deductions sought. 
 
 The Annual Reports of the School Board of Milwaukee are 
 still more unsatisfactory to the statistician than those of the 
 Chicago Board, since there never has been published a total 
 enrollment by grades since the twelve-grade system was intro- 
 duced. All that can be done, therefore, under the deductive or 
 enrollment method, is to tabulate the average enrollment since 
 the year just named, as is shown in the discussion of the table 
 (p. 263, infra). However, the average enrollment is quite 
 satisfactory for comparison with the Chicago table of total en- 
 rollment. 
 
 ^ Table I. Enrollment of Public Schools (Chicago). Fifteen Years, 
 p. 282 infra. The data for this table, for the years 1880-89, are compiled 
 from tables in the appendixes of the annual reports; e, g. Report for 1889, 
 pp. 142 and 152. 
 
 2 Page 283 infra. The data for this table are compiled from tables in 
 the appendixes of the annual reports; e. g.. Report for 1889, p. 146. 
 
Deductive Method. 261 
 
 DEDUCTIVE METHOD. 
 
 Passing now to the deductive or enrollment method, the first 
 form in which it was suggested in the investigation, seems 
 rather too simple to be safe. Yet it must be retained, if only 
 because of the ease with which it may be applied to the statis- 
 tics of other cities, in making the broader generalizations which 
 this paper suggests. It will be found, also, to be a much closer 
 approximation to the truth than would at first thought appear. 
 The method consists in a simple inference based upon the rela- 
 tively small numbers constantly enrolled in the higher grades. 
 A knowledge of this well-known fact leads every one to the con- 
 clusion, that a very large majority of the pupils fail to reach 
 the high school, and that entirely too large a number drop out 
 before reaching the grammar grades. That there is a funda- 
 mental and remarkably unyielding law corresponding to this 
 opinion, is seen by massing the enrollment figures for the 
 Chicago Schools as far back as they are available.' 
 
 Deductive Method Applied to Chicago. — It needs but a glance 
 of the eye over the the table to discover that we have here an 
 instance of the wonderful uniformity of the laws governing social 
 phonomena. Notwithstanding the great fluctuations of popula- 
 tion through immigration and exodus, the annexation of large 
 districts, the transfer of pupils to and from parochial and pri- 
 vate schools (which are one-half as large in number as the pub- 
 lic schools of the city) and other social and economic disturb- 
 ances, we find that the enrollment of no grade, with the excep- 
 tion of the first, has changed more than one per cent, from year to 
 year. With substantially the same forces in operation during 
 the succeeding fifteen years, we may feel sure that the same 
 uniformity of attendance will be found as in the past fifteen. 
 The slight tendency to increase or decrease in certain grades 
 will continue. The inference suggested by merely a superficial 
 glance at the figures (Table III) might be stated as follows: If, 
 out of every 1,000 pupils, there never have been more than 
 four pupils that reached the twelfth grade, the remaining 996 
 dropped out before reaching that grade. By the same reasoning 
 
 ' Table III. Per Cent, of Enrollment in each Grade (Chicago), p. 284. 
 
262 Folkmar — TJie Duration of School Attendance. 
 
 99 per cent, would be shown to have dropped out on an average 
 before reaching the eleventh grade; 97 per cent, before reaching 
 the high school ; 77 per cent, before passing beyond the primary- 
 grades; and 32 per cent, before reaching the second grade. The 
 next table would then show the per cents that dropped out at 
 each grade during fifteen years.' 
 
 The same facts are more vividly shown to the eye by the fol- 
 lowing graphic representation (Diagram A.) The per cent, that 
 never went beyond the limit of the first grade, the second grade, 
 the third grade, and so on, are cut off by the heavy boundary 
 lines. 
 
 Incidental Observations. — Some interesting facts may be no- 
 ticed in passing, though they touch only indirectly upon the 
 inductive method. In the first place, it will be seen from 
 Table III that there has been for ten years past a slight but 
 regular tendency toward decrease in the primary grades and a 
 corresponding increase in the grammar and high school grades. 
 The largest decrease has been in the first grade — from thirty- 
 five to thirty per cent. The twelfth grade of the high school 
 has made a corresponding increase from one-tenth to four-tenths 
 of one per cent. This indicates that a slowly increasing num- 
 ber stay in school long enough to reach the grammar and high 
 school grades; a fact which would be expected to accompany 
 the increase of wealth and intelligence among the parents and 
 the increasing educational demands of society upon the young. 
 These laws of attendance evident during ten years, would no 
 doubt hold good back to 1880. The apparent increase in the 
 primary grades and decrease in the grammer grades in the five 
 years following 1880, is explained by the superintendent of 
 schools as being caused by the new method of promotion which 
 went into effect at that time. Some time after dropping the 
 examination system, it was found that principals were not mak- 
 ing recommendations for promotion with sufficient freedom. 
 Upon having the matter brought to their attention it was 
 remedied, and the rate of promotion regained its old regularity. 
 Yet from the curious fact, that in the culminating year of 
 
 ' Table IV. Per Cent, of Pupils that do not go beyond the Grade 
 Named (Chicago), p. 285, 
 
Trans. Wis. Acad., Vol. XII. 
 
 Plate I. 
 
 Diagram A. — Showing what Per Cent, of the Population leaves School 
 
 at each Grade. 
 
 Chicago, — 
 
 Milwaukee, 
 
Deductive Method. 263 
 
 the first grade, 1884, and the second grade, 1887, the same 
 phenomena were observable in Milwaukee (Table V), it would 
 appear that the cause was a wide-reaching social condition. 
 Since a larger per cent, in these grades indicates a smaller per 
 cent, in the grammar grades, what bearing does this fact have 
 on the theory that in " good times " advanced pupils do not 
 attend school so largely as in " bad times " ? 
 
 At first thought it would seem that there are disturbing 
 factors which would render the apparent regularity of the fig- 
 ures impossible. Such are the death rate and fluctuations in 
 the population from annexation, immigration, and exodus. The 
 death rate, however, during school age, as we shall presently 
 see (p. 270), is so small as not to affect the results appreci- 
 ably; while, explain it as we may, the same wonderful regular- 
 ity is found throughout the table despite the great increase in 
 immigration in recent years and such sudden changes as the 
 annexation of a large population in suburban districts in 1889 
 and 1890. The most reasonable hypothesis is, that additions 
 to the population brought with them the same normal per cents 
 of children to enter the various grades. It seems probable from 
 data adduced in subsequent pages (pp. 273-4) that not only other 
 parts of the United States but many countries of Europe, carry 
 education to about the same grades; so that pupils coming from 
 them to Chicago are simply transferred in grade. This is no 
 doubt almost absolutely true of the annexed districts. 
 
 Deductive Method Applied to Mihoaukee. — The similarity of the 
 Milwaukee statistics may be seen by applying the same deduc- 
 tive method to them. As has already been said, the figures of 
 the actual enrollment in Milwaukee are not obtainable, but the 
 statistics of the " average enrollment " are in nearly enough the 
 same proportion to answer for the comparison.^ 
 
 Since the per cents in the Milwaukee reports include the 
 kindergarten and exclude the high school, revised tables are 
 given, with reductions so made as to be comparable with the 
 
 1 Table V. Per Cent, of Enrollment in Each Grade (Milwaukee), p. 286. 
 This table is compiled from the per cents given in the Statistical Tables 
 of the annual reports of the School Board — e. g., Report for 1895-96, p. 6i. 
 
264 Folkmar — The Duration of School Attendance. 
 
 Chicao-o tables.' Comparing the second of these tables with the 
 corresponding Chicago table (IV, p. 285), it will be seen that the 
 averages do not vary one and one-half per cent, in the two tables 
 except in the first grade, which is three per cent, larger in the 
 Milwaukee table. This slight excess is clearly due to the fact 
 that we are dealing with true enrollment figures in the Chi- 
 cago table but with "average" enrollments in the Milwaukee 
 table. 
 
 Errors in Deductive Method. — But, however accurate and sim- 
 ple this method may be in reaching the per cent, that normally 
 drops out at each grade, it must be justified by comparison 
 with other methods. There are errors in it not easily elimin- 
 ated; some of which would make the per cents too large, while 
 other errors would make the per cents too small. Now, if we 
 apply our corrections, for example, to the second grade (Table 
 III or VI, Per Cent, in each Grade), it is evident that any error 
 which makes it too small will make the per cents in the gram- 
 mar grades too large, and vice versa; also that if the second 
 grade per cent, is too small in this table, it is too small in the 
 table derived from it, the first grade remaining unchanged. 
 (Table IV or VII, Per Cents that Drop Out.) 
 
 One of the two largest errors makes the final second grade 
 per cent, (the 50 per cent, that dropped out) too small. It arises 
 from the fact that the base is too large. If the base were smaller 
 the second grade per cents in both tables, as is shown above, 
 would be larger. But the base should be smaller; for the grand 
 total of the fifteen years' enrollment, one and one- half millions 
 (compare Tables I and IX), is evidently not pupils, but pupil- 
 grades, or enrollments; that is, the number of enrollments that 
 would appear on the books in all the grades. Since most pupils 
 have been enrolled in more than one grade, this number is three 
 or four times the number of pupils.'' The number of pupils 
 
 1 Table VI. Same as Table V, With Corrections for Kindergarten 
 and High School, p. 287. Table VII. Per Cent, of Pupils that do 
 not go beyond the Grades Named (Milwaukee), p. 288. See, also, 
 "Diagram A," facing p. 262. 
 
 '''See discussion of the average number of grades each pupil has at- 
 tended, p. 272. 
 
Importance of Determining Limits of Error. ^65 
 
 would more nearly correspond to the total of the first grade, 
 one-half million, on the supposition that all pupils were first en- 
 rolled in the first grade. 
 
 The other chief error, taken by itself, would make our final 
 second grade per cent, too large — namely, the fact that our 
 percentage^ (282, 992), is too large. It is too large by approxi- 
 mately one-third, since about thirty-three per cent, of any 
 second grade enrollment appear to be pupils who remain in the 
 second grade two years (p. 267, infra). 
 
 The death rate and the fluctuations of population do not mate- 
 rially vitiate this method, as will be seen later (p. 270). The 
 former is never an appreciable quantity, and the latter is inop- 
 perative because we are here dealing not with classes as they 
 actually advance through the grades, but with the proportionate 
 enrollments in the various grades at all times — and we might 
 say in all places; for national and even European statistics cor- 
 respond in a general way to those of Chicago and Milwaukee.^ 
 In the latter case, no matter how many families would remove 
 to or from Chicago, it would not change the proportions that 
 enroll in the various grades. 
 
 The most important correction, therefore, to be made under 
 this method, is to eliminate the second enrollment that each 
 pupil made in any grade. We could then be sure that we had 
 reached the minimum limit in our second grade average; and 
 could also compute the average number of grades that each pupil 
 had attended. This brings us to one of the main topics of the 
 paper. 
 
 IMPORTANCE OF DETERMINING LIMITS OF ERROR. 
 
 Let us stop to remind ourselves of the main aims of the 
 paper. The first aim is to determine what per cent, of pupils 
 drop out at each grade. This we seem already to have approxi- 
 mately secured, to judge by the methods discussed later, for 
 they only corroborate the results of the deductive method. It 
 seems that the errors which tended to make the per cents first 
 
 ' This word is used throughout the paper in the strict sense to designate 
 concrete numbers, not the corresponding per cents. 
 ^ See Eriroilment of Various Countries, p. "273. 
 
266 FoUcmar — The Duration of School Attendance. 
 
 too large and next too small have neutralized each other. But, 
 since this is after all only an approximation and not a perfect 
 demonstration, the second great aim must be to determine the 
 outside limits between which the truth must lie. The maximum 
 limit will be reached under the inductive method. The mini- 
 mum limit may be got at once by reducing percentages. 
 
 Mmimuni Limit of Error. — As was shown on page 264, if we 
 reduce the percentages (the totals for the second and other 
 grades in Table IX) without reducing the base (the one and one- 
 half million grand total), or at least without reducing it in so 
 great a ratio as the percentages, we shall reduce the rate per 
 cents. But we know that the base is at least three times too 
 large. (See p. 26-1). The question is how much to deduct 
 from the apparent enrollments, especially in the first four grades, 
 to make the numbers stand in the same relation to each other 
 as do the true enrollments. That all the other grades are within 
 from one to ten per cent, of the actual enrollment will probably 
 be granted after the following discussion. 
 
 Correction for Double Enrollment. — The apparent or printed 
 enrollment in each of these grades is too large, because many 
 pupils are not only enrolled in them on entering the grade but 
 also on coming back to it the next year — those pupils, namely, 
 who failed of promotion. The determination of the number en- 
 rolled twice in each grade, is the most incomplete part of the 
 present paper. It would seem to be impossible to get accurate 
 results from the material at hand in Chicago and Milwaukee. 
 The question is, therefore, turned over to the future investi- 
 gator in this subject with the following imperfect data and in- 
 ferences. 
 
 Since we are seeking only a limit of error, perhaps so large 
 a reduction of the grades may be made that anything greater 
 would be clearly unreasonable. The next table of promotions ' 
 is of prime importance. It can not be inferred, however, that 
 all who fail of promotion were enrolled in the same grade 
 for the following year. How many of these dropped out of 
 
 1 Table VIII. Number of Pupils Promoted (Chicago), p. 289. This 
 table is compiled from the Superintendent's Reports in the Annual Reports 
 of the Board (e. g,, report for 1897, p. 30.) 
 
Importance of Determining Limits of Error, 267 
 
 school altogether is the largest element of uncertainty. In 
 the calculation, of course, the total number who dropped out at 
 any grade is made up both from those who were promoted and 
 those who failed of promotion. No exact determination of the 
 number in either case can be made, but the following additional 
 considerations may render our inferences more accurate. 
 
 We must begin with the enrollment of the grades as corrected 
 for increase in population (Table XIV, and p. 268). If we sub- 
 tract, for example, from the third grade enrolled in 1887 the 
 number promoted from the second grade in 1886, we have left 
 approximately the number that were enrolled a second time in 
 1887 in the third grade. This is about twenty-five per cent, of 
 of the enrollment of 1886, and is about the average for the third 
 grade, as will be found by trying different years. In the same 
 way it will be found that a deduction of about 10 per cent, should 
 be made from the fourth grade, 33 per cent, from the second grade, 
 and 45 per cent, from the first grade to allow for double enroll- 
 ments. Adding together our revised enrollments, we get a 
 grand total of 1,270,000 (See Table IX. True E^irollment, p. 
 290). Since now we have made reductions of 10, 25, 33, and 45 
 per cent, in our percentages and a reduction of only 38 per cent, 
 in our base, which was already three times too large (See p. 
 266), it must be admitted that the resulting per cents are the 
 smallest possible. 
 
 Let us recapitulate the argument as regards the second grade. 
 (1) We have as a base, 1,500,000, the total enrollment of all 
 grades; as percentage, 282,000, the enrollment of the second 
 grade; which is 18 per cent, of the total enrollment. (2) We 
 have reduced the base to 1,270,000, while the true base, the num- 
 ber that entered the first grade, is nearer 500,000 (p. 264); 
 we have reduced the percentage to 212,000 or 33 per cent., 
 which is about the true percentage; giving 16 as our per cent, 
 instead of 18. (3) But since we have reduced the percentage as 
 much as possible and left the base far too large, the resulting 
 per cent, must be too small; that is, the "16 per cent." of all 
 that entered the first grade said to drop out in the second, is 
 the smallest imaginable per cent., which was to be proven. The 
 same is true of each of the other grades. 
 
268 Folkmar — The Duration of School Attendance. 
 
 Conclusions as to Minimum Limit. — There can be no doubt, 
 therefore, that at least the following per cents dropped out at 
 the grades named :^ 
 
 27 per cent, by the end of the first grade. 
 
 43 per cent, by the end of the second grade. 
 
 58 per cent, by the end of the third grade. 
 
 71 per cent, by the end of the fourth grade. 
 
 82 per cent, by the end of the fifth grade. 
 
 89 per cent, by the end of the sixth grade. 
 
 93 per cent, by the end of the seventh grade. 
 
 96 per cent, by the end of the eighth grade. 
 
 93 per cent, by the end of the ninth grade. 
 
 99 per cent, by the end of the tenth grade. 
 
 99.6 per cent, by the end of the eleventh grade. 
 100 per cent, by the end of the twelfth grade. 
 This is our minimum limit. 
 
 INDUCTIVE METHOD. 
 
 Let us now take up the second general method of the paper, the 
 inductive or class method. The difficulty in following a particular 
 class from grade to grade in these statistics is due to the in- 
 crease of population through immigration. Many children on 
 coming from other cities to Chicago, enter the higher grades, 
 thus increasing the apparent number of the real class that en- 
 tered in the first grade. The first thing necessary, therefore, is 
 to make population-corrections in the class enrollment. 
 
 Corrections for Increase of Po2)ulation. — The next three tables ^ 
 will make clear the method used in ascertaining the corrections 
 to be applied to the printed enrollment (Table XIII). Table X 
 gives the official biennial census. The figures for the alternate 
 years can easily be estimated by inspection, for the increase is 
 found to follow a regular law. It is, for several years after 1880, 
 
 1 Table IX, True or Entrance Enrollment (Chicago), p. 290; also 
 Table XXIII, Final Conclusions as to Per Cents that Drop Out, 
 page 304. 
 
 2 Table X, Method of Obtaining Population Corrections, p. 291; Table 
 XI., Population Corrections, p. 292; Table XII, Estimated Per Cents 
 of Increase of Population, p. 293. 
 
'Inductive Method. 269 
 
 7 per cent, of the population of 1880, then running up to 13 per 
 cent, in 1892. The only exceptions are two great increases of 
 about 60 per cent, and 20 per cent, respectively, caused by the 
 annexation of large out-lying districts to the city in 1890 and 
 in 1891. 
 
 In a similar way the population-corrections for the other col- 
 umns are found (Table XI, p. 292). The per cents in bold 
 faced type are exact, being derived immediately from the official 
 census. The rest of the table is estimated. Quite evident laws 
 are discovered by mere inspection of Table XII (p. 293) , 
 where these factors are analyzed — regularities of increase and 
 decrease vertically, horizontally, and diagonally across the table 
 being evident. We are thus enabled to fill in the alternate 
 columns (Table XI) with tolerable assurance. 
 
 Having this law of the increase of population, it will easily 
 be seen that corresponding deductions should be made from the 
 enrollments of classes through the successive grades, since the 
 incoming population brings pupils that enter the different 
 grades in about the same proportion as that in which the Chi- 
 cago pupils are distributed among them. Table XIII (p. 294) 
 gives the enrollment of each class as it passes through the suc- 
 cessive grades. Table XIV ( p. 295 ) gives the true enroll- 
 ment as corrected for increase of population. Subtracting the 
 enrollment of the second grade from that of the first, gives us 
 the number that dropped out of school at the first grade. 
 Going through the entii^e table in this same way. we get Table 
 XV. Number That Dropped out by End of Each Grade 
 (p. 296). From these numbers taken as percentages with 
 the corresponding first grade enrollment taken as a base, we get 
 Table XVI. Per Cent, of First Grade Enrollment Dropped out by 
 End of Each Grade (p. 297). 
 
 Although this method seems the most direct and exact, it 
 will be seen that the per cents are unexpectedly large. It will 
 also be seen that we have very uniform laws evident through- 
 out these years as to the per cent, that drops out at each grade. 
 The average for each period of four years makes this clear. ^ 
 
 1 Table XVII. Average Per Cent, of First Grade Enrollment 
 Dropped out by End of Each Grade (Chicago), p. 298. 
 
270 Folkmar — The Duration of School Attendance. 
 
 Corrections for Death. — Another factor should be giveu con- 
 sideration in this inductive method, namely, the per cents that 
 drop out through death. "What correction, if any, should be 
 made in the table for this cause? A table of the death rate 
 per thousand will make it evident that the correction would not 
 be an appreciable quantity. We may take, for instance, the 
 English Life Table Iso. Ill, which is a standard authority in 
 life insurance^ and we shall find that during the school age, 7 
 to 18 years, less than one per cent, drop out in any year on ac- 
 count of death, (more exactly, from .9 per cent, of the first grade 
 enrollment in the first year to .006 per cent, of it in the twelfth 
 grade) and putting that small correction beside the large per 
 cents, 43, 54, GQ, and the rest in Table XVI, it is evident that 
 the correction is of no practical importance. 
 
 Inductive Method in Milvmiikee. — The Milwaukee statistics can- 
 not be used directly and with entire satisfaction in this in- 
 ductive method, for the actual enrollment of the grades has never 
 been printed. The "average enrollment " which we have in the 
 reports is a different matter. Still, if it is necessary, the act- 
 ual enrollment might be estimated on the basis of the average 
 enrollment. This will hardly be necessary after having the 
 Chicago results, for we may see at once from the tables of 
 average enrollments that the enrollments stand in almost ex- 
 actly the same ratio throughout the tables as do the Chicago en- 
 rollments; and we might get the per cents that dropped out in 
 each grade directly from them — but with the understanding 
 that the per cents are much too large. We are unable to reduce 
 the higher grades for increase of population. The average en- 
 rollment, therefore, in the higher grades is unduly large as 
 compared with that in the primary grades; for pupils attend 
 more regularly in the higher than in the lower grades. Com- 
 
 ^ Table XVIII. Influence of Death upon Duration of School At- 
 tendance, p. 299. From the Insurance Cyclopedia, by C. Walford, 
 Vol. II, pp. 528-32. Since the per cents derived from the English tables 
 are computed upon the population of each age taken as a base, they must 
 be recomputed (see column VI) upon the first grade as a base, to be usable 
 in my tables. Column IV is taken from Table XVI. Column VI is de- 
 rived from columns III and V. 
 
Final Comparison of Results. 271 
 
 paring the Milwaukee^ with the Chicago tables, we may see that 
 the same laws hold good in both cities as regards the drop- 
 ping out of pupils. 
 
 Maximwn Limit of Error. Let us now see whether we have in 
 the inductive method as applied to Chicago the maximum limit 
 of error. We have reduced the grade enrollments too much if 
 anything; for the population-corrections, seven to thirteen per 
 cent., included the increase from births as well as from immi- 
 gration. But if the enrollments in Table XIV are made larger, 
 the percentages in Table XV will be smaller and the per cents 
 in Table XVI smaller. Hence so far as all except the first grade 
 are concerned, the per cents are now as large as possible. But 
 the first grade should be made smaller, if anything, because of 
 double enrollment. This also would make the percentages in 
 Tables XV and XVI smaller. So from both points of view the 
 per cents that drop out are much too large, are the largest we 
 can suppose possible, and, therefore, indicate the maximum limit, 
 within wliich the truth lies. 
 
 Finally, if our enrollment in Table XIV be corrected not only 
 for population but for double enrollment also, it is gratifying 
 to find that we reach practically the same results as by our de- 
 ductive method. 2 We thus find that the slow process of follow- 
 ing a real class through grade after grade and making allow- 
 ances for all possible errors only proves the close accuracy of 
 the shorter deductive method. 
 
 PINAL COMPARISON OP RESULTS. 
 
 The next table ^ brings together for final comparison all the 
 results thus far obtained, and shows that the conclusions of the 
 deductive method occupy a middle position between the maxi- 
 
 1 Table XIX. Enrollment hy Classes (Milwaukee), p. 300. 
 
 Table XX. Number Dropped out hy End of Each Orade (Mil- 
 waukee), p. 301. 
 
 Table XXI. Per Cent, of First Grade Enrollment Dropped out 
 Toy End of Each Grade (Milwaukee), p. 302. 
 
 2 Table XXII. Per Cent, that Dropped out after Corrections for 
 Double Enrollment, p. 303. Compare with Table IV. 
 
 ^ Table XXIII. Final Conclusions as to Per Cents that Drop out, 
 p. 304. 
 
272 Folkmar — The Duration of School Attendance. 
 
 mum limit just reached, and the minimum limit as establishsd 
 under the deductive method. The largest Milwaukee figures 
 should not be given consideration, as they do not represent the 
 enrollment of real classes, but "average membership." 
 
 Average"^ Amount of Schooling per Pupil. — With these conclu- 
 sions shouid be stated the number of grades reached by the 
 average pupil. This is easily obtained from Table IX by divid- 
 ing the total number of grade enrollments (one and one-half 
 million) by the total number of pupils (one-half million). This 
 gives approximately three grades to the average pupil. This 
 is the least possible limit, because the first grade enrollment 
 (one-half million) is more times too large than the total enroll- 
 ment is, as was shown on page 267. If we use the figures of 
 the same table after the correction for double enrollment, we get 
 in the same way nearly four and one-half grades to the average 
 pupil. This is the maximum estimate, because, as shown on the 
 same page, the first grade is now reduced more times than it 
 should be in comparison with the reduction of the grand total. 
 There can be but little doubt, therefore, that the average pupil 
 get less than four grades of schooling, and certainly he does not 
 go beyond the primary grades. 
 
 In conclusion it should be clearly kept in mind just what our 
 proposition is. It has not been proven, either as regards the 
 average amount of schooling, or as regards the per cents that 
 drop out at each grade, that these figures hold true outside of 
 the two cities named, or even outside of the public schools in 
 those cities; and when it is remembered that about one-third 
 of the total school enrollment in each of these cities is in paro- 
 chial and private schools,' it will be evident that we will need 
 to bear this qualification in mind. Exactly formulated, our 
 statement is this: " Of the children that attend the public schools, 
 32 per cent, drop out before reaching the second grade, 66 per 
 cent, before reaching the fourth," and so on. That this state- 
 ment, however, holds true of all schools, seems apparent from 
 several lines of evidence that cannot be entered into here. One 
 that falls within the scope of our inquiry, is the fact, that no 
 
 1 Table XXIV. Public and Private Schools of Chicago, 1893-94, 
 p. 305. 
 
Final Comparison of Results. 
 
 273 
 
 irregularities of enrollment are observable in the entire history 
 of the public schools, such as might be caused by the opening 
 or closing of private schools, and the transferring of pupils from 
 public to parochial schools before confirmation, and from paro- 
 chial to public schools at other ages. The inference, therefore, 
 is that the pupils transferred are divided in about the same pro- 
 portion amongst the grades in other schools, thus making no 
 variations in our tables. 
 
 The St. Louis Statistics. — The evidence is still more conclusive 
 that the proportions enrolled in these two cities are the normal 
 proportions,- not only in other cities of the United States, but 
 even in rural districts and in other civilized countries. This 
 was shown in the case of St. Louis by Dr. Harris in connection 
 with his discussion of this subject.^ His per cents are 33.3 
 for first grade, 18.6 for second grade and 19.9 for third, and 
 so on and do not vary more than two per cent, in any grade 
 from the Chicago norm, excepting in the third. 
 
 ENROLLMENT OP VARIOUS COUNTRIES. 
 
 Chicagro, 1893-94 
 
 St. Louis, 1871-72 
 
 United States, 1890-91 (public and private) 
 
 United States, 1889-90 (public and private) 
 
 United States, 1888-89 (public and private) 
 
 United States, 1888-89 (public) 
 
 United States, North Atlantic Division, 1890-91 
 
 (public) 
 
 United States, South Atlantic Division, 1590-91 
 
 (public) 
 
 United States, South Central Division, 1890-91 
 
 (public) 
 
 Unite'd States, North Central Division, 1890-91 
 
 ( public) 
 
 United States, Western Division, 1890-91(public). 
 
 Canada, 1890-91 
 
 Great Britain and Ireland, 1890-91 
 
 Prussia, 1890-91 
 
 France, 1890-91 
 
 Netherlands. 1890-91 
 
 Norway, 1890-91 
 
 Mexico, 1890-91 '... 
 
 Primary 
 
 Secondary 
 
 Education. 
 
 Education. 
 
 Per cent. 
 
 Per cent. 
 
 97.4 
 
 2.6 
 
 97.4 
 
 2.6 
 
 97.4 
 
 2.6 
 
 97.5 
 
 2.5 
 
 98.1 
 
 1.9 
 
 96.1 
 
 3.9 
 
 96.7 
 
 3.3 
 
 98.2 
 
 1.8 
 
 98.4 
 
 1.6 
 
 97.3 
 
 2.7 
 
 97.0 
 
 3.0 
 
 93.8 
 
 6.2 
 
 96.2 
 
 3,8 
 
 94.3 
 
 5.7 
 
 97.2 
 
 2.8 
 
 98.0 
 
 2.0 
 
 93.6 
 
 6.4 
 
 96.0 
 
 4.0 
 
 1 St. Louis Report for 1871-72, p. 25. 
 18 
 
274 Folkmar — The Duration of School Attendance. 
 
 We cannot enter in this paper into a full discussion of the 
 amount of schooling in other places, but it will be interesting 
 to note in the foregoing list- that the per cent, in the high 
 schools is quite uniform throughout all civilized countries. 
 
 The largest per cent, noted is that of Norway, 6.4, which is 
 much larger than that of Chicago; while the smallest per cent. 
 is found in some of our own southern states. No statistics have 
 been found, through a somewhat extended search, that demon- 
 strate the number dropped out in the lower grades, either at 
 home, or abroad; but we may infer from the close correspond- 
 ence everywhere as to secondary education that similar condi- 
 tions would be found governing primary education. As is inti- 
 mated further on, these conditions are fixed by economic and 
 social influences which hold good in all countries. 
 
 Superintendent Smart'' s Conclusions. — It remains only to no- 
 tice the few and imperfect calculations which have been made 
 by others on the subject of this paper. In most cases there is 
 no attempt at demonstration. I find, for instance, conclusions 
 similar to those in this paper made by Ex-State-Supt. Charles T. 
 Smart, of Ohio, '^ as follows: " The high schools, into which but 
 about three per cent, of the pupils enrolled in the public schools 
 ever enter, and from which less than one per cent, are gradu- 
 ated. ... 50 per cent, of the youth enrolled in the public 
 schools of the state do not attend school more than four years, 
 and, under their existing circumstances, cannot attend more 
 than five or six years; 75 per cent, stop attending school be- 
 fore entering the eighth year or grade, and 97 per cent, do not 
 attend beyond the eighth year." (Pp. 472 and 473.) He ad- 
 duces the same reason as suggested above: "A majority of 
 the patrons of the public schools cannot do without the labor of 
 their children, and therefore cannot give them time to attend 
 school longer than five or six of the years devoted to primary 
 instruction." (P. 473.) 
 
 Londo7i Estimates. — Similar testimony comes from the London 
 School Board, England, as follows:^ " This leaves only 26.8 
 
 1 Bejiort of United States Bureau of Education 1890-91, pp. 40,369-372. 
 
 •^ Arena, Vol. 10, p. 462 (September, 1894). 
 
 ^ From a paper read at a meeting of the London School Board by Sir 
 
Final Comparison of Results. 275 
 
 of the scholars for the upper standard, and justifies one of our 
 inspectors in saying that, 'the charge of over instructing is 
 wholly groundless; only 16.5 of the children receive instruction 
 in specific subjects, the remainder, 83.5 being taught merely 
 the three R's, and in the case of those above Standard I, a few- 
 simple facts relating to geography and grammar.' " 
 
 Dr. Wm. T. Harris' s Method. — Dr. William T. Harris, United 
 States Commissioner of Education, has for many years given 
 thought to this subject. He was one of the earliest, apparently, 
 to have a keen appreciation of the importance of determining the 
 amount of schooling received by pupils; and has evidently based 
 certain conclusions in his more famous papers of recent years, 
 such as the determination of the course of study in his Report 
 of the Committee of Fifteen upon the fact, that most pupils 
 leave school with only a primary education. As long ago as 
 1872, while Superintendent of the St. Louis schools, he ex- 
 pressed a similar idea: "The average number of pupils in the 
 lowest three years of the course was about 72 per cent, of the 
 entire number enrolled. It was exactly the same for the year 
 previous. The fact, that nearly three-fourths of all the pupils 
 of the public schools are in the studies of the first three years 
 or in the primary studies, exhibits the importance of making 
 the instruction in those years the most efficient possible. On 
 the supposition that a large percentage of our population will 
 receive no other school education than what they get from the 
 primary grades, pains have been taken to make the course of 
 study not only disciplinary, but comprehensive in the subjects 
 taught."' More positive was a statement in his first annual re- 
 port as United States Commissioner of Education, in the follow- 
 ing words :^ "Six-sevenths of the population on arriving at the 
 proper age for secondary education never receive it. Thirty out 
 of thirty-one fail to receive higher education upon arriving at 
 the proper age. " The results reached in this paper are much 
 the same. 
 
 Charles Reed: "Ten Years' Results of the London School-Board," Jour- 
 nal of the Statistical Society, Vol. 43, p. 676, December, 1880. 
 
 1 St. Louis Report for 1871-72, p. 25. 
 
 2 Report of the Commissioner of Education for the year 1888-89, p. 
 xviii. 
 
276 Folkmar — The Duration of School Attendance. 
 
 The method used by Dr. Harris in the reports named is much 
 different from those of this paper. His words should be quoted 
 in full : " If we divide the school population, which has been stated 
 to form 34 per cent, of the total population, roughly into three 
 classes, allowing for primary or elementary schools all between 
 the ages of -6 and 13, inclusive, we shall set apart 20 per cen- 
 tum of the whole; the population aged from 14 to 17, inclusive, 
 amounts to 8 per centum for secondary education; 6 per cen- 
 tum remains for the number aged 18 to 20, inclusive, for higher 
 education. These percentages applied to the results shown by 
 the'statistics for the year 1889 give us the following ratios: 
 
 "'For the 12,000,000 of school age for elementary instruction 
 there were actually enrolled in public and private schools 
 12,931,259, or an excess of nearly 1,000,000. For the 4,750,000 
 of school age for secondary instruction there were actually en- 
 rolled only 668,461, or less than one-seventh of the youth of age 
 for that grade of work. Of the 4,000,000 of right age for 
 higher education there were enrolled only 126,854, or less than 
 one- thirtieth of the quota. " 
 
 This is one of the methods at first attempted in this investi- 
 gation. It was despaired of, however, for the ages actually 
 found in the city schools varied so greatly from Dr. Harris's 
 premises as to make it nearly useless. Thus, while he takes 
 the years from fourteen to seventeen as the high school age, 
 the pupils actually in the high school in 1893-94 were of the 
 following ages:^ 
 
 From ten to eleven years of age 2 
 
 From eleven to twelve years of age 6 
 
 From twelve to thirteen years of age 43 
 
 From thirteen to fourteen years of age 261 
 
 From fourteen to fifteen years of age 809 
 
 From fifteen to sixteen years of age 1, 395 
 
 From sixteen to seventeen years of age 1, 471 
 
 Over seventeen years of age 2, 202 
 
 Even if this method were sufficient in regard to secondary 
 education or elementary education, as a whole, it would be 
 manifestly insufficient to show the number dropping out of 
 each grade. 
 
 ^Beport of the Board, 1891, p. 204. 
 
Final Comparison of Results. 
 
 277 
 
 In a later report' the results of Dr. Harris seem to be some- 
 what dififereat from my own, but the difference may be appar- 
 ent rather than real. What he really reaches in this chapter is 
 not the number or per cent, that withdraws at each grade, but 
 the average age at which pupils withdraw. He quotes with 
 approval Prof. C. M. Woodward's method, which results in an 
 age at withdrawal of about 13|- years for the average 
 pupil. Since the latter enters school at 7^ years of age, this 
 would give him only five years of schooling, which may be 
 entirely consistent with the 3|- or 4 grades which the average 
 pupil attends, as shown by my method; for as has already been 
 shown, more than one-half of the pupils go a second year to the 
 first grade alone, and the average required considerably over 
 one year each in the second and third grades.^ 
 
 Other Estimates. — The estimates most widely differing from 
 those in this paper which I have found are those of Superin- 
 tendents White and Lane. Those of the former seem so un- 
 reasonable, in the absence of adequate information as to the 
 method employed in deducing them, that they may be simply 
 inserted at this point without further discussion.^ 
 
 Estimates of the Number that do not go Beyond the Grades Named. 
 
 Grades. 
 
 Supt. 
 Lane. 
 
 Supt. 
 White. 
 
 This paper. 
 
 First 
 
 10 1 
 ]9.7 
 34.3 
 39.0 
 51.6 
 62.9 
 71.2 
 
 10 
 15 
 25 
 40 
 50 
 60 
 70 
 85 
 90 
 94 
 95 
 100 
 
 32 2 
 
 Second 
 
 50.6 
 
 Third 
 
 66.1 
 
 Fourth 
 
 77 6 
 
 Fifth 
 
 86 2 
 
 Sixth 
 
 91 8 
 
 Seventh 
 
 95 2 
 
 Eighth 
 
 97.4 
 
 Ninth 
 
 
 98 6 
 
 Tenth 
 
 
 99 3 
 
 Eleventh 
 
 
 99.7 
 
 Twelfth 
 
 
 100.0 
 
 
 
 
 ' Report of the Commissioner of Education for the year 1891-92, Vol. I, 
 Chap. XIV. "The Age of Withdrawal from the Public Schools." 
 
 ^ See p. 266, supra, on promotions. 
 
 ^Superintendent White's estimates are found in his Promotions and 
 Examinations, quoted by J. N. Patrick, Elements of Pedagogics, p. 
 
278 Folkmar — The Duration of School Attendance. 
 
 Superintendent Lane's results expressed in the same terms 
 as those used in this paper, would give us only 10 per cent, 
 that drop out at the first grade, 15 per cent, at the second, 
 and so forth. There are two errors in his method so funda- 
 mental and enormous as to make it valueless: the first is that 
 he has made no correction for the increase of the higher grades 
 through immigration and annexation; the second is that he has 
 not taken the real enrollment numbers, as has been done in this 
 paper, but has taken the average daily membership of the first 
 grade and has traced the progress of this fictitious class through 
 the higher grades, also in terms of average daily membership. 
 The great uncertainty of his method appears at once upon ap- 
 plying it to the Milwaukee daily membership, as has been done 
 in Tables V to VII (pp. 286-8). The result here must be very 
 unwelcome to Mr. Lane, for it shows that his method gives 
 almost exactly the same numbers dropping out of each grade 
 that this paper does. 
 
 In our survey of the printed material of the subject, it is 
 evident that no sufficient reason has been found to modify the 
 conclusions of this paper. Even the most different estimates, 
 made by people of various degrees of familiarity with the sub- 
 ject, all agree that from 40 to 80 per cent, never get into the 
 grammar grades, and that from 85 to 95 per cent, never reach the 
 high school. Methods and estimates are most at variance below 
 the grammar grades, especially in the first and second grades. 
 It might be objected that compulsory education laws result in 
 a longer attendance at school than is apparent in these statis- 
 tics. There are two sufficient answers to this claim: first, it is 
 not enforced, as the superintendent of the Chicago schools has 
 repeatedly said in his reports;' in the second place, if enforced 
 it would not necessarily carry the pupil beyond the third grade, 
 A simple computation will show that if he be compelled to 
 
 171. Superintendent Lane's figures are obtained by subtraction from the 
 table on page 35 of the Annual Report of the Board of Education, Chi- 
 cago, for 1897. Superintendent Lane was moved by my tables to this 
 attempt to reach different conclusions. His method was pre-figured in a 
 personal letter written me May 13, 1895, 
 ' Report of the Board, 1895, p. 48, for example. 
 
Causes and Remedies. 279 
 
 attend only four months in a year for seven years, he receives 
 a total schooling of 28 months, which is a little less than three 
 grades — even if we disregard the fact that he will have to take 
 the work of some term a second time over, and probably of 
 more than one term, because of the long intervals between his 
 terms of attendance, 
 
 CAUSES AND REMEDIES. 
 
 It would be interesting to make a thorough investigation of 
 the causes that account for this small amount of schooling on 
 the part of the average pupil; in fact, it is absolutely neces- 
 sary to secure a correct diagnosis of the case before adequate 
 remedies can be applied. It is rather a thankless task, how- 
 ever, for everybody considers himself able to point out the real 
 difficulty; although there should be no need, before a scientific 
 association, for saying that only the judgment of the specialist 
 is of much value. It is a difficult problem in itself and is not 
 the problem of this paper; therefore only a few brief sugges- 
 tions have been added by request. 
 
 The actions of pupils, like those of other people, are governed 
 by their interests. To a great extent they do not like the school 
 or the teacher, or they like other things better. But the control- 
 ling motive is to do as their parents wish or command. Hence we 
 must determine what causes the attitude of parents in regard to 
 sending their children to school. I answer without hesitation that 
 the chief factors are economic conditions. Too many either cannot 
 support their children as they desire, or cannot spare them through 
 a longer period of schooling; others simply wish the wages their 
 children may earn more than they wish their education. A 
 few are opposed to higher education. Others humor their chil- 
 dren in their dislike of school. But a most important motive 
 still remains, namely, the wish to live in accordance with the 
 social demands of the community or to obey the law which the 
 community makes. 
 
 So we finally must ascertain the causes of the social senti- 
 ment which may lead as one result to compulsory education 
 laws. An analysis would reduce this sentiment to ideas con- 
 cerning the safety of the state and the need of education — 
 
280 Folkmar — The Duration of ScJiool Attendance. 
 
 ideas that are inherited rather than reached through rational 
 conviction, ideas that are a survival of the fittest. Dr. Harris 
 rationally voices this thought in his relating education to the 
 "needs of civilization." 
 
 Which, now, are the chief causes of early withdrawal from 
 school? Is not the greatest cause the economic? If so, the 
 remedy is to be found in improving the economic conditions, 
 and we know that this is not easily done. The next best remedy 
 is to educate parents and the community to the need of more 
 schooling; but this is a slow process. The most direct remedy 
 is the enactment and enforcement of a good compulsory educa- 
 tion law. This may, in turn, require a brief term of education 
 on the part of the law makers and the makers of public opin- 
 ion. But it must be recognized that another great deficiency is 
 the failure on the part of the teacher to make school work as 
 interesting as it should be. The remedy in this case is to edu- 
 cate better the teachers and to exercise more care in the selec- 
 tion of them. One further suggestion may be made. Since the 
 child's education is not now compulsory before the age of seven, 
 add a year or two before that in the compulsory education law, 
 and provide kindergartens for the earlier work. 
 
 SUMMARY. 
 
 The chief proposition which has been elaborated in the fore- 
 going pages maybe stated as follows: Of all that enter the 
 public schools of Chicago and Milwaukee, 
 
 (1) About one- third go no further than the first grade ; 
 
 (2) About one-half go no further than the second grade; 
 
 (3) About two-thirds go no further than the third grade; 
 
 (4) About three-fouths go no further than the fourth grade ; 
 
 (5) About nine-tenths go only half way through the twelve 
 grades ; 
 
 (6) About ninety-seven in every hundred drop out before 
 reaching the High School; 
 
 (7) Only three in every thousand finish the entire course. 
 Or, more exactly, the following per cents drop out at each grade: 
 
 G-rade, 12 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11. 
 
 Per cent., 32 51 GQ 78 86 92 95 97 98.6 99.3 99.7. 
 
Summary. 281 
 
 Another line of argument leads to the conclusion that the 
 schooling of the average pupil does not embrace more than 
 three grades. Although the evidence is far from sufficient, it 
 further appears probable that these statements hold true of the 
 average citizen of the United States wherever found. 
 
282 
 
 Folkmar — The Duration of School Attendance. 
 
 
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 Foe the 
 
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 1876. 
 
 1877. 
 
 1878. 
 
 1879. 
 
 1880. 
 
 1881. 
 
 First 
 
 8,936 
 8,857 
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 674.3 
 
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 1,332.0 
 
 1,287.6 
 
 1,179.0 
 
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 39,386.2 
 
 41,569.3 
 
 43,717.2 
 
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290 
 
 Folkmar — The Duration of School Attendance. 
 
 Table IX. — True or JEntraiice Enrolhnent. — Chicago. 
 
 
 Enrollment 
 (15 years.) 
 
 Per cent, 
 not pro- 
 moted. 
 
 Corrected 
 enrollment. 
 
 Pee Cent. Deopped. 
 
 Geade. 
 
 In each 
 grade. 
 
 By end of 
 
 each 
 
 grade. 
 
 First 
 
 492,738 
 282,992 
 239,135 
 181,272 
 
 45 
 33 
 25 
 10 
 
 339,819 
 212,776 
 
 187,308 
 164,792 
 
 26.7 
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 27 
 
 
 43 
 
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 71 
 
 
 
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 90,683 
 55,793 
 37,547 
 
 
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 55,793 
 37,547 
 
 10.7 
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 82 
 
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 89 
 
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 93 
 
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 96 
 
 
 
 
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 20,467 
 12,240 
 7,118 
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 12,240 
 
 7,118 
 
 4,719 
 
 1.7 
 
 1.0 
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 .4 
 
 98 
 
 Tenth 
 
 
 99 
 
 Eleventh 
 
 
 99.6 
 
 Twelfth 
 
 
 100 
 
 
 
 
 Totals 
 
 1,561,335 
 
 
 1,270,893 
 
 100.0 
 
 
 
 
statistics. 
 
 291 
 
 Table X. — Method of Obtaining Pojiulation Corrections. (Illustrated 
 for the class entering in 1879-80.) 
 
 Year. 
 
 Census. 
 
 Increase 
 over 1880. 
 
 Per cent. 
 
 of 
 increase. 1 
 
 Inceembnts.i 
 
 Population 
 corrections 
 
 Grades. 
 
 Actual. 
 
 Estimated. 
 
 1880.... 
 1881.... 
 
 491,516 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 7.0 
 
 7.0 
 
 7.0 
 
 7.1 
 
 7.3 
 
 7.7 
 
 9.0 
 
 11.2 
 
 11.5 
 
 (59.1)» 
 12.0 
 
 f21.3)« 
 12.5 
 
 13.0 
 
 13.0 
 
 13.2 
 
 
 7.0 
 14.0 
 21.0 
 28.1 
 35.4 
 43.1 
 52.1 
 63.3 
 74.8 
 145.9 
 
 179.7 
 
 192.7 
 
 205.7 
 218.9 
 
 First. 
 
 1882.... 
 1883.... 
 
 560,693 
 
 69,177 
 
 14.0 
 
 14.0 
 
 Third. 
 Fourth 
 
 1884.... 
 1885 .... 
 
 629,935 
 
 138,469 
 
 28.1 
 
 14.1 
 
 Fifth. 
 Sixth, 
 
 1886.... 
 1887.... 
 
 703,817 
 
 212,301 
 
 43.1 
 
 15.0 
 
 Seventh, 
 Eighth. 
 Ninth. 
 Tenth. 
 
 1888.... 
 1889.... 
 
 802,651 
 
 311,135 
 
 63.3 
 
 20.2 
 
 1890.... 
 1891.... 
 
 1,208,669 
 
 717,153 
 
 145.9 
 
 82.6 
 
 Eleventh. 
 Twelfth. 
 
 1892.. . 
 
 1,438,010 
 
 946,494 
 
 192.7 
 
 46.8 
 
 
 1893.... 
 
 
 1894.... 
 
 1,567,727 
 
 1,076,034 
 
 218.9 
 
 26.2 
 
 
 
 
 1 Computed on population of 1880. 
 
 'The real increments very large, on account of annexed districts in 1890 and 1891; the 
 per cents, given in parenthesis would have been normal increments, as is evident from 
 the rest. 
 
292 
 
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298 FolJcmar—The Duration of School Attendance. 
 
 Table XVII. — Averaye Per Cent, of First Grade Enrollment 
 Dropped out by End of Each Grade. — Chicago. 
 
 Gbade. 
 
 AVEKAGES OF 4 YeAES. 
 
 1880-83. 
 
 1884-87. 
 
 1888-91. 
 
 First 
 
 45.49 
 54.58 
 67.75 
 76.04 
 
 44.51 
 
 57.76 
 69.26 
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 41.64 
 
 
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 Tenth 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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statistics. 
 
 299 
 
 Table 'S.Ylll.— Influence of Death upon Duration of School Attend- 
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 I. 
 
 Grade. 
 
 II. 
 
 Corres- 
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 age. 
 
 III. 
 
 Printed 
 per cent, 
 of deaths. 
 
 IV. 
 
 Per cent. 
 
 dropped 
 
 out. 
 
 V, 
 
 Per cent. 
 remaining. 
 
 VI. 
 
 Corrected 
 per cent, 
 of deaths. 
 
 VII. 
 
 Total per 
 cent, drop- 
 ped by 
 death. 
 
 First 
 
 7 
 
 9 
 
 10 
 
 9a 
 77 
 66 
 58 
 
 43.29 
 53.79 
 65.87 
 74.42 
 
 100.00 
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 46.21 
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 54 
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 .94 
 
 .020 
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302 
 
 Folkmar — The Duration of Sdiool Attendance. 
 
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statistics. 
 
 303 
 
 Table XXII .— Per Cent, that Dropiwd out ajter Corrections for 
 Double Em'ollnient. — Chicago. 
 
 (Illustrated for the middle year, 1886-87.) 
 
 
 Enrollment for Class Enter- 
 ing IN 1886-87. 
 
 
 Geades. 
 
 As 
 Pi-inted, 
 
 A s Corrected. 
 
 Per Cents 
 as cor- 
 rected. 
 
 
 By popula- 
 tion. 
 
 Also by 
 double en- 
 rollment. 
 
 
 First 
 
 27,954 
 17,185 
 14,579 
 15,423 
 
 27,954 
 16,042 
 12,768 
 9,538 
 
 15,374 
 
 10,784 
 9,574 
 
 8,584 
 
 30.89 
 
 Second 
 
 37.74 
 
 Third 
 
 44.23 
 
 Fourth 
 
 53.74 
 
 
 
 Fifth 
 
 13,191 
 
 10,154 
 
 6,310 
 
 5,670 
 
 7,111 
 
 5,247 
 3,127 
 2,702 
 
 7,111 
 
 5,247 
 3,127 
 
 2,702 
 
 65.87 
 
 Sixth. 
 
 79.85 
 
 
 82.35 
 
 Eighth 
 
 89.37 
 
 
 
 Ninth 
 
 3,598 
 2,408 
 1,711 
 
 1,635* 
 
 1,047* 
 
 713* 
 
 1,635 
 
 1,047 
 
 713 
 
 93.18 
 
 Tenth 
 
 95.35 
 
 Eleventh 
 
 
 
 
 * See Table X. Population in 1896 was 1,619,226. 
 
304 
 
 Folkmar — J7ie Duration of School Attendance. 
 
 Table XXIII. — Final Conclusions as to Fer Cents that Drop Out. 
 
 
 By Deductive Method. 
 
 Bt Inductive Method. 
 
 Geade. 
 
 Chicago. 
 "Mini- 
 mum." 
 (Table IX.) 
 
 Milwaukee. 
 Not actual 
 enrollment. 
 CTable VII.) 
 
 Chicago. 
 
 Actual 
 
 enrollment. 
 
 (Table IV.) 
 
 Chicago. 
 
 Corrected 
 
 for double 
 
 enrollment, 
 
 (Table 
 
 XXII.) 
 
 Chicago, 
 " Maxi- 
 mum," 
 (Table 
 XVI,) 
 
 Milwaukee. 
 
 Not actual 
 
 enrollment. 
 
 t (Table 
 
 XXI.) 
 
 First 
 
 Second 
 
 Third 
 
 Fourth 
 
 27 
 43 
 58 
 71 
 
 35 
 51 
 65 
 76 
 
 , 38 
 51 
 66 
 78 
 
 31 
 38 
 44 
 
 54 
 
 43 
 54 
 66 
 74 
 
 56 
 59 
 66 
 74 
 
 Fifth 
 
 Sixth 
 
 Seventh 
 
 Eighth 
 
 82 
 89 
 93 
 96 
 
 85 
 91 
 95 
 97 
 
 86 
 93 
 96 
 97 
 
 66 
 
 80 
 82 
 89 
 
 83 
 89 
 93 
 96 
 
 81 
 87 
 90 
 
 
 
 Ninth 
 
 98.0 
 99.0 
 99.6 
 100.0 
 
 
 98.6 
 
 99,3 
 
 99.7 
 
 100.0 
 
 93.1 
 95.4 
 
 97.5 
 98.5 
 99.1 
 100.0 
 
 
 Tenth 
 
 
 
 Eleventh .... 
 
 
 
 Twelfth 
 
 
 100.0 
 
 
 
 
 
statistics. 
 
 305 
 
 Table XXIY.— Public and Private Schools of Chicago, 1893-94. 
 
 
 Teachees. 
 
 Pupils. 
 
 
 Male. 
 
 Female 
 
 Male. 
 
 Female 
 
 Under 
 21 yrs. 
 
 Over 
 21 yrs. 
 
 Public Schools. 
 Primary and Grammar Departments — 
 High School 
 
 124 
 99 
 32 
 
 3,427 
 102 
 
 28 
 
 
 
 178,884 
 
 6,189 
 
 285 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Totals 
 
 255 
 
 3,557 
 
 
 
 185,358 
 18,269 
 
 
 
 
 4,069 
 
 
 
 (410) 
 
 14,200 
 
 
 
 
 Othek than Public Schools. 
 
 7 
 99 
 238 
 550 
 
 321 
 201 
 948 
 281 
 
 1,516 
 
 2,385 
 
 29,303 
 
 8. 193 
 
 2,255 
 
 2,594 
 
 31,921 
 
 7,426 
 
 2,663 
 
 4,520 
 
 80,523 
 
 9,477 
 
 988 
 
 
 459 
 
 
 339 
 
 
 4,972 
 
 
 
 
 Totals 
 
 894 
 
 1,751 41,397 
 
 44,196 
 
 77,183 
 
 6,7.58 
 
 
 
 Grand Totals (Public and Private 
 
 1,149 
 
 5,308 
 
 
 
 262,541 
 
 6,758 
 
 
 1 
 
 
 
 20 
 
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