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". * ... • - r r * - - - —r * * * UNIV :RSITY OF MICHIGAN LIBRA ...) : º y º * * 2}/ A Study of the Proposed Parcel Post as Affecting the Railways PREPARED BY THE BUREAU OF RAILWAY ECONOMICS WASHINGTON, D. C. JUNE, 1912. - * . . '-' . . . . --- . . . . . . . . . . . - - - * . . . . ' '.' t • . - . . -- * * - - - - * * - ; *** : * . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . : , , , . " - - - - ... • • I - - - ". . **x * * *, * - t + *, * t - .. , *, *: ...” - § 8 & 22:... : * : : - . . . . . . . . . .. 4 * , , . . . ...’, ¥ 5'ſ ;: - - - --> - * * * * *.*.*. - f: * * * : 3. § *****śr:-->~~~~~~~~~~~.......--- y ******* *** *** **,x*** * + **** *** - . . . . . .4% ºf , ii.33; ; ;&tº & Cº. Miśray *** . ... ." : ; ; ; ; *.. (..A ! !", In December of last year, there was forwarded to the subscribers to the Bureau of Railway Economics for their criticism and suggestion “A Tentative Study of the Proposed Parcel Post as Affecting the Rail- ways,” which was later withdrawn because of the receipt of informa- tion that affected the estimates of compensation. The pamphlet now presented contains a revision and amplification of the tentative study. There has been added a discussion of the prob- able average haul and probable ton-mileage of parcels in the United States, and a description of the parcel-post service in the more im- portant European countries. : k ſ ) * , , \, , lº CONTENTS. - - Page I. Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 I. Probable Volume of Parcel-Post Traffic. . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 2. Average Haul and Ton-Mileage of Parcel-Post Traffic. II 3. Car Space Required for Parcel-Post Traffic. . . . . . . . . II 4. Compensation for Carrying Parcel-Post Traffic. . . . . . . I2 5. Loss of Railway Revenue Through Transfer of Freight and Express Traffic to Parcel Post. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I 2 6. Balance Between Compensation, Loss of Revenue, and Other Items. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I4 7. Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * I4 II. General Description of Parcel-Post Service in the Principal European Countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I6 I. Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 2. Administrative Control... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . 20 a. Management. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . tº & © tº t e º e º e º tº º 2O b. Monopoly or Competitive Service. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2O 3. Description of Service. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 a. Limit on Weight. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 b. Limit on Dimensions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 c. Specially Fast Transportation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 d. Collection of Parcels. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 e. Delivery of Parcels. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 f. Charges for Collection, Transportation, and De- - livery. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 g. Insurance Against LOSS or Damage. . . . . . . . . . . . 29 h. Collection on Delivery. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3I 4. Method of Handling Parcels. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 5. Relation of the Railways to the Parcel Post. . . . . . . . . . 33 a. Highway Transportation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 b. Train and Car Service for Parcel Post. . . . . . . . . . 33 c. Compensation to Railways for Service to Parcel Post. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 III. Estimates of the Probable Number and Aggregate Weight of Parcels in the United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 I. In Case of a Postal Monopoly. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 a. Estimate Based on Foreign Parcel-Post Experi- CI1CC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .* * * * * e º e e e 38 4 b. Estimate of the Average Weight and the Total Tonnage of Parcels. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . c. Tonnage Estimate Based on the Comparative Freight Traffic in the United States and Other Countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . d. Conclusion to Estimates, Based on Foreign Ex- perience, and Modifications Required by Differ- ences in Charges. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . e. Estimate Based on Experience of Express Com- panies in the United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2. In Case of Competition. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . a. Estimate of Express Traffic that Would Find Parcel-Post Charges Lower than Present Ex- press Charges. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . b. Estimate of Express Traffic that a Parcel Post Would Divert and of New Traffic that a Parcel Post Would Develop under Competition . . . . . . . IV. Estimates of the Probable Average Haul and the Ton-Mile- age of Parcel-Post Traffic. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I. Estimate of the Probable Average Haul. . . . . . . . . . . . . a. Consideration of the Average Haul of Fourth- Class Mail. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . b. Consideration of the Average Haul of Light- Weight Express Matter. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . c. Conclusion as to Average Haul of Parcel-Post Traffic. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ‘. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2. The Ton-Mileage of Parcel-Post Traffic. . . . . . . . . . . . . V. Estimates of Car Space Required to Carry the Parcel Traffic. I. Probable Method of Handling Parcel Traffic on the Trains. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2. Probable Amount of Car Space Required. . . . . . . . . . . VI. Estimates of Compensation to the Railways for Carrying the Parcel Traffic. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I. For Transportation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . a. In Case of a Postal Monopoly. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . b. In Case of Competition. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2. For Railway Mail Cars. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . VII. Estimates of Loss of Railway Revenues Through Transfer of Freight and Express Traffic to a Parcel Post. . . . . . . Page 48 50 53 55 66 66 70 74 74 74 76 78 78 79 79 83 86 86 88 9I 93 94. 5 Page I. Loss of Freight Revenue. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . e e s e e s e o e 94 2. Loss of Express Revenue. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 a. In Case of Monopoly. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ‘. . 95 b. In Case of Competition. . . . . . . . • * * * * * * * * * * * * * * IO3 VIII. Balance between Compensation, Loss of Revenue, and Other Items. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . IO6 I. In Case of a Monopoly. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , e s - e < * * * . IO6 2. In Case of Competition. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Io'7 3. Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ". . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . IO8 Appendia. I. The Graphical Method Employed in Making Certain Estimates. I Io Appendia II. Estimates by Graphical Method of the Average Weight of Par- cels II Pounds and Less in Germany and France. ... . . . . . . . . II4 Appendia III. Estimates by Graphical Method of Certain Characteristics of the Express Traffic in Pieces II Pounds and Less in the United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I 17 Appendia IV. Estimates by Graphical Method of the Number of Pieces of Fourth-Class Mail Above One-llalf l’ound and Above One Pound. . . . . . . . . . e e s a e e i s e º e a e e s e s a s e e s s e e e s e e s e s a 9 s e e e a I 22 Appendi.v. W. Subsidiary Estimates Entering into the Estimate of the Volume of the Merchandise Class of Express Traffic that Would Find Parcel-Post Charges Lower than Express Charges. . . . . . . . . . I24 Appendia VI. Method of Estimating the Railway Compensation for Service to the Parcel Post. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... • * * * * * * * * I32 Appendia. VII. Comparison of Parcel-Post Charges Proposed in Various Bills before Congress. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ' s e e s e s e s e I43 THE PROPOSED PARCEL POST AS AFFECTING THE RAILWAYS SUMIMARY The purpose of this study has been to ascertain, as far as possible, the effect which the establishment of a parcel post in the United States would have upon the interests of the railways. Answers have been sought to these questions: - What will be the probable volume of the parcel traffic to be hauled by the railways? - What kind of cars, as between mail cars and express cars, will be necessary? + What will be the amount of car space required P What will be their compensation for this service on the present rates of mail pay P How will a parcel post affect the freight and express traffic and the revenues of the railways from these sources? These will be examined in order, but in the interest of accuracy and fairness it should be said at the outset that statistics for the United States that are both accurate and comprehensive, from which replies to these questions might be directly deduced, do not exist. Accurate data are limited to fragmentary information from a variety of inde- pendent sources. To supplement this data for the United States, the more comprehensive experience of foreign countries has been examined. A description of the parcel-post service in the more important Euro- pean countries is given in the next section. After allowing for fundamental differences in these various countries, some deductions have been attempted. Wherever practicable several estimates have been made from as many independent angles as possible, and one has been used to check and modify another until all have merged into a composite result. These results are no more than estimates. There can be no predication of accuracy. The most that could be expected was the attainment of a tentative basis for closer estimates by any who may have better data on any of the points in question. 7 8. The calculations necessarily involved the frequent exercise of unsup- ported judgment. To afford opportunity to check errors of judgment, all the significant data and all the steps in reaching the conclusions are set forth in the body of the discussion. This summary contains only the general plan of the study and the main, unqualified conclusions. The processes of the graphical method by which some of the interme- diate estimates were reached are described fully in appendices. In the appendices are also placed some of the details of calculation with which it would not be desirable to interrupt the thread of the discussion. Probable Volume of Parcel-Post Traffic The first inquiry is as to the probable volume of the parcel-post traffic. This will depend on whether the postal service is given a mo- nopoly of the parcel business within the prescribed weight limit, or whether the competition of private express agencies is permitted. Al- though the constitutionality of a monopoly by the Post Office Depart- ment of the parcel business is denied by lawyers of standing, the issue appears to be sufficiently open to make it inadvisable to commit this study to the assumption that the service may not be monopolized by the postal department. Therefore, an answer to the question of volume will be sought under two hypotheses; one that the parcel traffic will be monopolized by the post-office; the other that there will be competition between the post-office and the express companies. First will be con- sidered the condition of monopoly. Of a score or so of bills introduced into Congress, all but two or three propose a limit of II pounds for postal parcels. This is the equivalent of 5 kilograms. Either 5 kilograms, or the equivalent, II pounds, is the limit of weight, either in law or practice, in almost all of the parcel-post systems abroad, as well as in the international parcel- post conventions. It is proper, therefore, to proceed on the assumption that this will be the weight limit in any postal-parcel service that may be adopted in the United States in the immediate future. The first question becomes, therefore, What will be the probable total volume of the traffic in parcels of II pounds and under? Comparisons based on foreign experience will first be looked to for guidance. The easiest basis of comparison is the ratio of parcel traffic to the population, and the most serviceable unit for this comparison will be the number of parcels per thousand population. It should be noted # 9 that this parcel traffic is distinguished from all other goods traffic by the presence of a considerable element, such as gifts, family remem- brances, and the like, that represents, not commercial, but purely per- sonal relations between sender and recipient. Therefore, the volume of parcel traffic is not to be estimated solely with reference to comparative commercial conditions. - ... -- Notice should next be taken of the several factors which differently affect the ratio of parcels to population in different countries. The more important of these include the supply and character of transporta- tion facilities, the development of the commercial or trading tempera- ment, the strength of personal ties or mutual interests, the degree of territorial specialization in production, or, conversely, of local self- sufficiency, the development of retail distributing agencies, the degree of prosperity as expressed by national wealth and income, the readiness of individuals to spend, the rate of postage on parcels, the difference in the purchasing power of money, the length of haul, and the density of population. A comparison of these various factors, so far as ascer- tainable, for different countries and for the United States, has been made and an estimate based upon it. In this estimate was considered only the number of parcels. - • * To ascertain the probable aggregate weight of a parcel traffic, an estimate was made based on the experience of other countries, the judgment of express men in the United States, and deductions from available data of the express business. The estimate of the total ton- nage thus obtained was then checked by another comparison based on the ratio of parcel tonnage to freight tonnage in those countries of Europe having a parcel post. * These several estimates, based on European experience, of the prob- able number and aggregate weight of parcels likely to be handled by a parcel post in the United States, were each compared with the other, and a tentative final estimate on the basis of foreign comparisons was thus obtained. * * * This conclusion was then checked by an estimate based on the experi- ence of American express companies and a consideration of the prob- able additional parcel traffic that a parcel post might develop. Thus was obtained an estimate of the probable parcel-post traffic independent of the estimate referred to above as deduced from the experience of foreign countries. - IO This estimate and the concluding estimate based upon comparisons with foreign countries were then checked by comparison with each other and a final estimate, concluding the whole analysis, was obtained. In proceeding by these steps to the final estimate, it was necessary to make some assumption as to the service and charges under a parcel post. A consideration of all the proposals and the trend of discussion, in the light of experience in other countries, led to this opinion: Most probably, except on the rural routes, the parcel-post service will not include the collection of parcels from the domicile or place of business, but will transport them and deliver them to the addressee. The charges most strongly urged up to the time this opinion was formed were at the rate of 8 cents a pound for any distance." Assuming that rate, the final estimate is that the volume of parcel- post traffic, in case of a postal monopoly, will probably be about 183,- OOO,000 parcels, weighing about 343,125 tons; in case of competition, it will probably be about IOO,OOO,OOO parcels, weighing about 127,000 tons. If any other rate of charges is assumed these estimates should be modified accordingly. Further, these are estimates, of course, of the traffic in case a parcel-post is made immediately available. They are subject to increase from year to year. The preliminary estimates leading up to this final conclusion are presented in detail in the body of the discussion. Of these preliminary estimates the following may be given here: The probable average weight of postal parcels is estimated at about 3.75 pounds in case of a postal monopoly, and at something over 2.5 pounds in case of com- petition, when the parcel-post traffic would be much more restricted to parcels of lower weights. The express business in the United States in 1909 in parcels weighing 11 pounds or less is estimated at about IOI,OOO,OOO parcels, weighing about 225,000 tons. There is reason to believe that this express business has increased as much as 17 or 18 per cent in the last two years. Assuming that rate of increase, the express business at the present time in parcels II pounds and under would be about I 18,675,000 parcels, weighing about 264,375 tons. Of * After the estimates and computations were made on that assumption, there has been a more active support of the principle of the zone system, and Senator Bourne, Chairman of the Sente Committee on Post Offices and Post Roads, has introduced a bill which provides for charges on the basis of distance 20mes. "If this scale of charges should be adopted, the estimates in this Study will be some- what too low in the case of a monopoly, and considerably too low in case of competition. II this express traffic it is estimated that about IO7,OOO,OOO parcels would be taken over by a parcel post under monopoly at the rates usually proposed, and that about 47,000,000 parcels would be taken over under competition. The new traffic that a parcel post would develop, in ad- dition to that part of the present express business that would be taken over, is estimated at about 76,375,000 parcels in case of a postal mo- nopoly and about 52,875,OOO parcels in case of competition. Average Haul and Ton–Mileage of Parcel-Post Traffic A consideration of the average haul of fourth-class mail, the data on the average haul for two express companies compiled by the Inter- state Commerce Commission, and the probable effect of the flat rate of charges, gave an estimate of the probable average haul of parcel- post matter as 300 miles in case of a monopoly and 400 miles in case of competition. These would make the ton-mileage IO2,900,000 ton- miles and 50,800,000 ton-miles respectively. Car Space Required for Parcel-Post Traffic The amount of car space required for carrying the parcel-post traffic will depend on whether it is carried in with other mails in mail cars on a mail schedule, or in a manner similar to that in which the express companies' traffic is carried. A review of the considerations in the matter, in the light of the practice in other countries, indicates that the latter method is the more probable one. On that assumption, the car space required is estimated, for the case of a monopoly, at about 2,786,500,000 foot-miles, or 46,440,000 car-miles on the basis of 60-foot cars. For the case of competition, it would be about 1,375,150,000 foot-miles, or 22,920,000 car-miles in terms of 60-foot cars This space would not all need to be in new cars. It is believed, in consideration of the practice in other countries, and in consideration of expediency and economy of Operation, that only a small part of the parcel traffic will be carried in railway mail cars, and that a still smaller part will require additional car space of that type. In that case, many cars now used by the express companies could be taken over by the Post Office Department with such of the express traffic as would come to it through the establishment of a parcel post. New cars would be necessary for any new traffic developed by the parcel post. This new car space is | 2 estimated, for the case of a postal monopoly, at about 818,450,000 foot- miles, or 13,640,000 car-miles in 60-foot cars. In case of competition. it would probably amount to 1,319,400,000 foot-miles, or 21,990,000 car-miles. The space needed beyond this might be provided by mak- ing such alterations in express cars, no longer required by express companies, as might be necessary to adapt them to the parcel-post service. If the Government refused to accept for its use any or only a part of the unemployed express cars, the new car space would be correspondingly increased to any amount up to the total space required. Compensation for Carrying Parcel-Post Traffic The question of compensation is rendered somewhat indeterminable by the renewed discussion of the whole subject of railway-mail pay. The estimates have been prepared on the basis which now obtains for the mail pay—that is, a payment for transportation based on the weight of mail and an additional payment for the use of mail cars. The esti- mate of the payment by weight for transporting the parcel tonnage is based on an estimate of the probable per cent of increase in the average daily weight of mail, and a resulting estimate of the per cent of in- crease in transportation pay for this increase in average daily weight. The results obtained are that the transportation pay for carrying the parcel traffic will be about $7,800,000 in case of a monopoly, and about $3,780,000 in case of competition. If the judgment already reached, that very little additional space in railway mail cars will be required, is correct, then the additional pay for mail cars will be negligible in this study. Reduced to the basis of ton-miles, the above estimate of compensation amounts to 7.58 cents per ton-mile in case of a monopoly, and about 7.44 cents in case of competition. Loss of Railway Revenue through Transfer of Freight and Evpress Traffic to a Parcel Post Offsetting the railway compensation for carrying postal parcels is the loss of freight and express revenue that would be sustained because of freight and express traffic transferred to the parcel post. The freight traffic so transferred would be entirely included within that part of the parcel-post traffic that would be developed in addition to the present express traffic which would be taken over. Indeed, it would be something less than that part of the parcel traffic, because the * 13 * latter would include some entirely new business which had not before been moved by any agency. But, in case of a postal monopoly, there would be some addition to the freight traffic and revenues in that a part of the present express traffic in heavier pieces under II pounds that would find the parcel-post charges higher than express for shorter distances would go by freight. The net loss of freight revenue, if any, would probably be too small to be of any importance in this study. The express revenue lost would include two items. In the case of a monopoly, one item of $5,580,000 is the share of the total railway ex- press revenues assignable to the pieces of II pounds and less on the basis of their proportion of the total ton-mileage of express matter. Another item of $16,670,000 would be the amount by which the present revenue assignable, on the basis of ton-mileage, to the pieces over II pounds would be reduced. This reduction would take place because of the fact that the railway revenue is a fixed percentage of the receipts of the express companies, and that these receipts from pieces over II. pounds in weight are less than proportionate to the ton-mileage com- prised in that portion of the entire express traffic. If the pieces II pounds and less should be transferred to the parcel post, then the ex- press companies’ receipts would be reduced more than in proportion to the reduction in the ton-mileage of the traffic. If the percentage rate of railway revenue, which is now established under contracts made with a view to the total express companies’ receipts from the whole of the present traffic, be applied unchanged to these disproportionately re- duced express companies’ revenues, then the railway revenue from the business remaining with the express companies would be less than the present revenue assignable to that traffic on the basis of its proportion of the whole express ton-mileage. The aggregate loss of revenue in both items would be $22,250,000." - In the case of competition, the loss of revenue would include $1,425,000 assignable on a ton-mileage basis to the traffic transferred to a parcel post, and $6,090,000, the reduction in present revenues, on a ton-mileage basis, from the traffic in pieces over II pounds, due to the continuation of the established percentage rates of railway express “This sum is the railway share, on the established percentage rates, of the express charges on the traffic in pieces II pounds and less. But there are reasons for analyzing this amount into the two items described in the text and expressing the loss of revenue in that manner, rather than treating the whole $22,250,000 as the railway compensation for the traffic in pieces under II pounds alone. For a full discussion of this distinction, see pages 96 to Io2. * - I4 pay with an express traffic bearing much lower charges in proportion to ton-mileage. The aggregate loss of revenue would be $7,515,000. Balance between Compensation, Loss of Revenue, and Other Items A rough balance can now be drawn up between those features of a parcels post that would be to the advantage of the railways, and those that would be to their disadvantage. However, it is impracticable to express some of the items of such a balance in terms of an acceptable money equivalent. In those cases, the items can only be named for consideration according to the information and judgment of the reader. The balance between compensation and loss of express revenue may be stated as follows: In case of In case of monopoly. competition. Total compensation for parcel-post traffic. . . . . . . . . . . . . $7,800,COO $3,780, Ooo Total loss of express revenue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22,250,000 7,5I5, OOO Excess of loss of revenue over compensation. . . . . . . . . . $14,450,000 $3,735,000 In addition to this net diminution of revenue should be considered the increase in expense for hauling an additional amount of traffic on passenger trains, and providing, maintaining, and hauling the new car space for containing it. All three items may be grouped for con- venience in the following form: In case of In case of monopoly. competition. Net loss of mail and express revenue. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $14,450,000 $3,735,000 Per cent decrease . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Io per cent. 3 per cent. Reduction in remaining express revenue per ton-mile, from 7.7 cents to . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8 cents. 6.9 cents. Per cent decrease. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 per cent. IO per cent. Additional traffic, ton-miles. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3O,235, OOO 48,740,000 Per cent increase. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 per cent. 3 per cent. Additional car space: Foot-miles. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 814,450,000 I,319,400,000 Car-miles (60-foot cars). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I3,640,000 2I,990, OOO Per cent increase . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 per cent. 4 per cent. Conclusion. The most important conclusion to be drawn from this study of the probable bearing of a parcel post on the interests of the railways may be briefly stated. If the parcel post is instituted as part of the present mail service without any provision for compensation other than would accrue under the existing law, the railways would suffer a serious loss I5 of revenue and an appreciable increase in the service they would be called upon to perform. The discrepancy between the revenue from the parcel traffic hauled as mail and the revenue when it is hauled as express, it may reasonably be expected, will be reduced through the reductions in express charges by regulating bodies. But it is almost certain that it would not cease to be a very important amount. From the point of view of the railways' interests, this would be an argu- ment against the adoption of the parcel post. But, since the action of Congress will be influenced by other considerations besides that of the interests of the railways, another deduction follows from this proba- bility. If Congress should decide to institute a parcel post, then there would be ground on which the railways may present a claim for some form of compensation for the loss of revenue they would incur, espe- cially the loss, under established contracts, on the express traffic that would remain to them, a loss accompanied by an actual increase in their aggregate transportation service. I6 GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF THE PARCEL POST IN THE PRINCIPAL COUNTRIES OF EUROPE A study, in any aspect, of the proposed parcel post in the United States should take cognizance of any suggestions that may be found by consulting the experience of other countries. Of course foreign experience is not directly applicable to the questions concerning the proposed service in the United States, since there are important dis- similarities between this country and others in respect to the numerous factors that would condition the character and effects of a parcel-post service here. Yet, if this limitation upon the serviceability of foreign experience be constantly recognized, Some valuable suggestions can be drawn from that source for guidance in answering questions on the proposed parcel post here. The parcel post has had its earliest and most extended development in Europe. It is the European countries, then, rather than any other, that will be of most significance for pur- poses of comparison. Not all of them, however, need be considered. In the interest of brevity, this review of foreign systems will be limited to England, France, Germany, Austria, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, and Denmark." * A word of explanation should be said as to the sources of the information on which this description rests. There have been several accounts, some very frag- mentary, of the service in some one or more countries. But none of these has been uniformly specific and comprehensive. Not even the descriptive accounts compiled by the Senate Committee on Post Offices and Post Roads from the replies to inquiries made through the State Department are free from very serious obscurities, lack of compehensiveness, and Omissions. Under the circumstances, there are several points in a description such as this that cannot be treated with the fullness desired or, at times, even with certainty of the accuracy of the state- ments. The published accounts have been supplmented with the testimony on foreign express and parcel-post service given before the Interstate Commerce Commission in the recent investigation of express companies, by personal inter- views with men engaged in the daily use of these services abroad, by an unpub- lished private report on the service in two countries, and by correspondence with officials and personal acquaintances abroad versed in these matters. The ensuing description is believed to be practically correct, notwithstanding disagreements as to some points with other published accounts. But it is unavoidably incomplete as to some points concerning which information is obscure or is lacking altogether. SUMMARY In all of the countries mentioned, except France and Belgium, the administrative authority is centered in the postal department of the government. In France, the railways operate the small-parcel Service with only the most general control by the government. In Belgium, the small-parcel service is part of the general express facilities of the railways. These, however, are operated by the government. It does not appear from the information obtainable that in any of the countries named the parcel post has a legal monopoly of the trans- portation of small parcels. Per contra, in most of the countries it is plain that there is competition either from private railways, as in Eng- land, or, as in most of the countries, from private forwarding agents who use the railways for effecting the transportation of parcels which they assemble and handle. But in all of the countries except England, the amount of traffic in parcels within II pounds in weight that is drawn away from the parcel post by this competition appears to be very Small. Thus, while not enjoying a legal monopoly, the parcel post does enjoy a practical monopoly of the traffic in parcels under II pounds. Only England is an exception to this statement. The weight of parcels accepted by the parcel post is limited in all the countries. The limit is II pounds in England, Italy, and the Netherlands; 22 pounds in France; I IO pounds in Germany and Aus- tria; and I32 pounds in Belgium. But as a matter of practice, the actual traffic carried by parcel post is in most of these countries com- posed of parcels mostly within I I pounds in weight. Heavier packages usually seek the various forms of express transportation. Only England, the Netherlands, and Denmark fix absolute limits to the dimensions of parcels accepted by the parcel post. But in the other countries, parcels above prescribed dimensions are subject to a higher charge. The transportation of parcels in England is by regular passenger trains. In the other countries parcels are not ordinarily carried on any but the slower passenger trains and frequently on the fastest freight trains, which perform a sort of express service. But in Germany, Austria, Belgium and Denmark transportation can be had on the fastest train by the payment of an additional charge. - A collection service is not ordinarily performed on parcels sent by parcel post. In France and Austria no collection service is offered. 2—R I8 In Belgium, none is offered for parcels under II pounds. In Germany, a collection service is offered but little used. In Denmark and Italy some collection service is offered, but it appears to be limited. Nothing has been ascertained as to the Netherlands. The delivery of parcels, however, is performed in all the countries, and in all except France and Germany the ordinary delivery is made without additional charge. But special delivery, which is offered in most of the countries, is subject to additional charges. The charges for the ordinary parcel-post service in all but France and Germany are fixed to include the collection of the parcel, So far as this service is performed at all, and its regular delivery, as well as the transportation. But the regular rates for transportation include only the carriage from station to station in France, and from post- office to post-office in Germany. To obtain the charge comparable with the charges in other countries, an additional fee must be added to the transportation charge to cover delivery in France and Germany. The German collection service is a feature that the other countries have not developed to the same extent, so allowance should always be made for that fee in a comparison of charges. The charges are tabulated for comparison in a chart on page 28. * In addition to the ordinary service of transmitting parcels from sender to consignee, it is clear from the information, as to most of the countries, that provision is made also for indemnity for the loss or damage to packages in transit. Usually a small indemnity is allowed on any parcel, and a larger indemnity, in proportion to an additional insurance fee, is allowed for packages of special value. However, the indemnity is never granted except for actual loss or damage definitely proven and never more than the amount of the proven loss or damage. Some sort of receipt, or certificate of posting, or of registration is thus necessary, if not legally required, in order to prove a claim. Such papers are obtainable for ordinary uninsured parcels, but are subject to an additional fee in Germany, at least. When the value of the parcel is declared and specially insured, the insurance fee covers the issuance of Some evidence of the receipt of the package by the parcel post. Another service performed in most of the countries is the collection of money on the delivery of the package and the return of this col- lection to the sender. England does not perform this service and the information at hand contains nothing concerning this service in Austria and the Netherlands. In all the other countries, however, the service is performed on payment of additional fees. I9 In all of the countries, the parcels appear to be handled separately from the regular mail so far as possible. Only on the very light routes are parcels and mail thrown together. Wherever the volume of parcels is large enough, they are carried in separate sacks, or hampers, and wherever the volume is sufficiently larger, the parcels are handled entirely apart from the mail in separate rooms or buildings and are carried in separate cars or even on separate trains. In France, at least, and possibly in Belgium, the parcel traffic is entirely separated from the mail traffic, except in small towns and villages off the lines of rail- way. The sorting of parcels is carried much farther before they are put on the trains than is the case with mail matter. This reduces to a minimum the amount of distribution to be effected in the cars en route. Only in England are the parcels carried uniformly on passenger trains. In France they are uniformly carried on the “grande vitesse” trains, which carry the fast package business analogous to the express traffic (though not comparable with the express service) in the United States. On branch lines only are they conveyed on passenger trains, but these are the slowest type of local accommodation trains. In most of the other countries, the bulk of the parcel-post traffic appears to be carried on the slower passenger trains or the fastest package freight trains. Only parcels sent on the fast service, with additional charges, are carried on the faster passenger trains. The cars used are either the ordinary baggage cars or the cars of the fast package freight trains. Precise information on this point is lacking for Austria, Italy, Bel- gium and the Netherlands. The compensation or allowance received by the railways for carrying the parcel traffic is placed on different bases. In England, the railways receive 55 per cent of the postage charges on the parcels transported. In the Netherlands, the railways receive two-thirds of the charges. In France, where the railways operate the parcel service, the railways receive all the charge except a government tax of 2 cents, which is in- cluded in the charge to the shipper. In Belgium the railway depart- ment of the government operates the parcel service and receives the whole charge. In Germany and Austria, the railways are obligated to carry a certain amount of parcel traffic as mail matter free of charge. Service beyond the prescribed amount is compensated. In Germany, at least, much the greater part of the parcel traffic is carried under the free Service. In Italy and Denmark the railway pay is based on the amount of car space and the distance, 2O A more detailed description of each of these features in the several countries is given in the following pages. -: i ADMINISTRATIVE CONTROL Management: The administrative authority of the parcel post Serv- ice is, in all of the above named countries except France and Belgium, centered in the postal department of the government. In France the service is carried on by the railways, which have entire operative con- trol and which enjoy most all of the revenue. The government retains only a most general supervision exercised through the fundamental laws that provide for the service and fix the charges. However, in Small towns and villages not located on a railway, the post office re- ceives parcels for shipment by railway and provides for incoming par- cels consigned to local addresses. In addition, the postal department maintains a Service by roadway between such towns. In Belgium the parcel service is administered under the full author- ity of the railways, which, however, are operated by the government. The postal department, as in France, participates only in small towns and villages having no railway Service. - Monopoly or Competition: It is not clear from the information avail- able for this study that the parcel post enjoys a monopoly of the parcel traffic in any of the countries under consideration. On the other hand, it is clear that there are several of them in which there is competition by other parcel carrying agencies. Thus, in England the railways have long had a parcel service for packages of all weights. The traffic car- ried by this service includes a large volume in parcels of 11 pounds and less, the limit of weight for the parcel post. Besides the railways, there are many forwarding concerns who assemble small parcels and ship them in bulk to various points where they are distributed by agents of the forwarding company. The comparative charges by parcel post or by railway are such that the parcel post carries chiefly those parcels under II pounds that are of lighter weight, and that go longer distances and to places not served by the railway delivery service; the railways carry the parcels of heavier weights and those that go the shorter dis- tances and to the more accessible places. It is not definitely ascertainable from the information whether the parcel-post Service in France is a monopoly or not. The service is virtually a part of the railway transportation facilities and is operated directly by the railways themselves without the intervention of any 2I agency such as the express companies in the United States. But it is understood that there are some forwarding agents who operate between points where the traffic is heavier. But the volume of such business in any case is far less than in England. In Germany the railways and parcel post are operated by different departments of the same government. The railways conduct an ex- press business, but there is no duplication of work with the parcel post, except mainly between weights of 44 pounds (20 kilograms), which is the minimum weight recognized in the express charges, and I IO pounds (50 kilograms), which is the maximum weight transmissible by parcel post. Even that field for competition is greatly reduced by the effect of the parcel-post charges on parcels Over II pounds (5 kilograms). These are so graduated to weight that it is much cheaper to divide heavier pieces into smaller parcels within II pounds whenever possible. As a joint result of all the conditions, far the greater part of the traffic in parcels within II pounds in weight is carried by parcel post. Besides the railway express service, there are many forwarding agents in Germany, but the operations of these are concerned mainly with express matter heavier than the parcels carried by the parcel post. It thus appears that the parcel post does not have the exclusive right to carry packages within its maximum limit of weight, but that it actu- ally carries far the greater part of the business in pieces within the limits of weight most easily handled by the postal organization. Austria is in practically the same situation as Germany in respect to competition with the parcel post. There are only two private forward- ing agencies and these are Occupied mainly with heavier pieces than concern the parcel post. As in Germany, the parcel post has no legal monopoly of the traffic within the weight limit, but actually carries far the greater part of the business suitable for the postal administration. Italy has conferred no monopoly rights upon her parcel-post service. There are a number of Small express forwarders, but the business of these is confined chiefly to local or short distance shipments to the more easily accessible points and does not seriously affect the volume of the parcel-post traffic. In Belgium the Small-parcel service is part of the general express service performed by the railways. There is no room for competition, then, except from private forwarding agents. Information is not at hand as to competition from this source. - Denmark has not given its parcel post a monopoly. Both state and private railways have installed a package service. But judging by the 22 heavy parcel-post traffic,” this competition does not cover to any extent the same class of Service as that of the parcel post. In the Netherlands, there are private express companies that compete with the government parcel post. But the information obtained does not indicate the relative volume of business within the parcel post limit of weight, that is done by these private agencies. DESCRIPTION OF SERVICE Limit on Weight: The limit of weight on packages mailable by parcel post is fixed at II pounds in England, Italy, and the Netherlands. In France it is 22 pounds. In Germany and Austria the limit is IIo pounds (50 kilograms) and in Belgium it is I32 pounds (60 kilo- grams). But in each of these three countries parcels within II pounds are treated virtually as a class by themselves.” Pieces over II pounds are treated much more as express freight than as postal matter. In Denmark the weight limit is I IO pounds (50 kilograms). It may thus be said that, although the weight limit is in many cases above II pounds, the Service that SO compares with a postal Service in character as fittingly to be designated as a parcel post, is virtually limited to parcels of II pounds or less. Limit on Dimensions: There is a fixed limit on the dimensions of parcels in England, the Netherlands, and Denmark.” In France, there is no limit on the size of parcels not over II pounds, but parcels over II pounds up to the maximum, 22 pounds, may not exceed 1.5 meters (59 inches) in any dimension. In Germany, Austria, and Italy there is no limit to the size of parcels transmissible, but those beyond speci- fied dimensions or of Special fragility are charged 50 per cent more than ordinary parcels. In Belgium, any cumbersome package weighing more than 3% kilograms (7.33 pounds) is arbitrarily classed as weigh- ing Over 5 kilograms (II pounds) and charged accordingly. It thus appears that, excepting England, the Netherlands, and Den- mark, there is no limit on the size of parcels that will be received for * See table on pages 44 and 45. * The charges on pieces under II pounds are not graduated according to weight or distance, except in Germany and Austria and there only in a very slight de- gree, while the charges on pieces over II pounds vary considerably with weight and distance. * England : 3 feet 6 inches in any one dimension and 6 feet on combined . and girth. Netherlands and Denmark: I meter (39.37 inches) in any irection. - 23 transportation, but that parcels above a prescribed limit are subjected to heavier charges. Specially Fast Transportation: England, France, Italy and the Netherlands make no provision for quicker transportation of urgent parcels on faster trains, all parcels enjoying the same facilities. Ger- many, Austria, Belgium and Denmark each make provision for ship- ping urgent parcels on faster trains, but a greater charge is made for the faster service.* Collection of Parcels: With certain qualifications to be noted, it may be said the parcel post in the countries named usually performs no col- lection service for parcels of II pounds or less. In France, no collection from the shipper is made at all.” The same is true in Austria. In England, in the largest cities, the postal wagons will receive parcels, on notice, from shippers located on any of the few Streets regularly traversed by these wagons, or from any shipper of a large consignment on notice. But no other provision is made for the collection of parcels in towns and cities. In the country, foot postmen accept a small amount of parcel mail, but the rural mail wagons accept any amount. 4. In Germany, collection of parcels is made only on special application and in consideration of an extra fee. The charge is Io pfennigs (2.5 cents) for parcels up to II pounds collected within the local districts. For collections from the outside rural districts, the charge is 15 pfen- nigs (3.5 cents) for parcels not Over 2.5 kilograms (5.5 pounds) and 25 pfennigs (6 cents) for heavier parcels up to 5 kilograms (II pounds). The collection Service is very little used, especially in the * It is to be noted that this statement does not pertain to special delivery after arrival, but only to transportation between points. * In Germany the additional charge is I mark (23.8 cents) and in Austria, 50 hellers (12 cents) on each parcel of whatever weight. In Belgium it varies from 30 centimes (6 cents) on an II-pound package to 2 francs 40 centimes (48 cents) on a 132-pound parcel. In Denmark it is uniformly 40 øre (II cents) for each II pounds. - * Shippers must themselves bring their parcels to the railway station or to other designated receiving offices, as follows: In the larger cities the railways maintain branch offices, in addition to the railway station, where parcels may be left by the shippers. In the small towns and villages having no railway station, if the railway has an agent in the town, parcels may be left with him. If there is no railway agent, parcels may be left at the local post-office. But an extra fee of 25 centimes (5 cents) is imposed upon parcels left at branch railway offices or local post-offices to cover the cost of transferring them to the railway station. This fee goes to the railway on condition that the railway bears the cost of the transfer of parcels to the railway station. But if parcels are deposited in a local post-office, the railways pay 5 centimes (I cent) of this fee to the Postal De- partment. 24. large towns and cities where most parcels are taken to the post-Office by the shipper. . * . In Belgium, packages of 5 kilograms (II pounds) or less are not collected, but those over that weight are collected on request of sender for a fee of 30 centimes (6 cents). - In Denmark, there is no collection of parcels in towns and cities. But in the country the rural carriers collect parcels from senders. It is not stated in the source of information whether an additional fee is charged for this collection. The information at hand does not indicate whether the parcel post performs a collection service at all in the Netherlands, or in the towns and cities of Italy. In the country regions of Italy, rural carriers receive parcels for shipment, but not more than 5 kilograms (II pounds) from any one person, or more than I5 kilograms (33 pounds) in all on any one trip. - Delivery of Parcels: Almost universally parcels are delivered to ad- dressee unless specific direction is made to the contrary." In all the countries except France and Germany this delivery is made by the parcel post without any additional fee. In many cases, also, provision is made for special delivery immediately on the arrival of a parcel on payment of a special fee. In England parcels are delivered to addressee without extra fee. Parcels may be marked “to be called for,” when they remain in the office of destination to be called for by the addressee. This is designed Solely for the accommodation of Strangers and travelers. Special de- livery of urgent parcels is provided for, but an additional fee is re- quired for this service, of 3 pence (6 cents) for each mile or fraction of a mile for first parcel and a fixed additional fee of I penny (2 cents) for each additional parcel. In France, where the railways themselves operate the parcel service, packages may be addressed to be called for at the station. But if not So directed they will be delivered to the addressee, if he lives in the town where the station is located, Or, if his place of residence is not on the railway, to the local railway agent or the local post-office. In either of these two forms of delivery a special fee of 25 centimes (5 cents) is charged. This fee remains with the railway, but, if the parcel is delivered to a local post-Office for later delivery to the addressee, the * It appears from the information at hand that only in the Netherlands and Austria does the parcel-post Service deliver all parcels to the addressee. - 25 railway pays the Postal Department 5 centimes (I cent) of this de- livery charge. . In Germany, with a few exceptions to be noted, all parcels are de- livered to the addressee under special fees, unless specific directions are received to the contrary. These directions may be given by the sender addressing the parcel “general delivery,” or by the addressee leaving notice at the local post-office that he wishes to call for his parcels.” Parcels that are excepted from the general rule of delivery are kept at the office of destination and the addressee is notified of their arrival. - The fees charged for ordinary delivery are IO pſennigs (2.5 cents) for parcels up to 5 kilograms (II pounds) delivered within the local district. For deliveries outside into rural districts, the fees are Io pfennigs (2.5 cents) for parcels not Over 2.5 kilograms (5.5 pounds) and 20 pfennigs (5 cents) for heavier parcels up to 5 kilograms (II pounds). The above general rules of delivery in Germany apply to all parcels with these exceptions. If the addressee lives in the local delivery dis- trict, parcels with a declared value Over 3,OOO marks ($712.50), in Some cases over 6,OOO marks ($1,425), are excepted. If the addressee resides in a rural delivery district, parcels with a declared value over 800 marks ($190) and parcels weighing over five kilograms (II pounds) or those not easily carried in the postman's bag, are excepted. But if rural carrier has a wagon, the last two conditions do not apply. Germany provides for the special delivery of parcels as follows: Ordinary parcels, registered parcels, and parcels of declared value up to 800 marks ($190), provided they do not weigh over 5 kilograms (II pounds), are delivered by special delivery in both local and rural dis- tricts. Parcels of greater weight or greater declared value are not forwarded by special delivery, notice only being sent to addressee by Special messenger. * In the case of addressees living in rural districts, if there is an auxiliary post- office in the locality, the rural carrier turns over to the postmaster all parcels for addressees in his Section. But if there is no such post-office, the rural carrier must himself deliver the parcels to the addressee. Also, he must deliver all par- cels which, having been left at an auxiliary office, remain uncalled for since his last trip. * When parcels are sent under “general delivery” they are kept for one month, when, if not then called for, they are treated as undeliverable. When the ad- dressee leaves notice of his intention to call, parcels are kept only during the day of arrival and the following day, when, if not then called for, they are delivered to the addressee and the regular fee collected. 26 Special delivery is subject to extra charges as follows: If the special delivery charge is prepaid by the sender, the delivery of the parcel itself incurs a charge of 40 pfennigs ( 9.5 cents) in local districts. 90 ( & (21.5 “ ) in rural districts. The special notification of the arrival of undeliverable parcels incurs a charge of 25 pfennigs ( 6 cents) in local districts. ( & (I4.25 “ ) in rural districts. If the special delivery charge is not prepaid by the sender, then, if the actual compensation to the special messenger exceeds the above charges, the full amount of such compensation must be paid by the addressee. In Austria, except in very thinly settled regions, parcels are delivered to the addressee, apparently without any extra charge. In the Smaller towns, where parcels are delivered by the regular letter carriers on foot, parcels over 2 kilograms (4.4 pounds) must be called for at the office after notification. If addressee resides in rural districts, the rural carrier is allowed to charge a fee based on the weight of the parcel. In thinly settled regions, the addressee must call at the nearest post- Office. Special delivery of “urgent” parcels is made for an extra fee of I krone 20 hellers (29 cents). In Italy, excepting in certain rural sections not served by letter car- riers, parcels are delivered to addressee. But C. O. D. parcels involving a collection of more than a specified amount" must be called for by addressee. A receipt for delivery is always taken. For a payment of 2O centimes (4 cents) in advance, the Sender of a parcel may obtain a receipt of delivery from the addressee. Italy makes no provision for special delivery of parcels mailed within the kingdom. - In Belgium, all parcel-post packages are delivered without additional charge within the regular delivery limits, unless it is specifically di- rected on the way-bill that they be kept to be called for. But an addi- tional charge is made for delivery beyond the established delivery limits, or if it is more than 3 kilometers (1.86 miles) from the station, or the post-office. This charge is 20 centimes (4 cents) per kilometer. * 500 lira ($97.50) or, in case of second-class post-offices, 50 lira ($9.75). 27 Special delivery of urgent shipments of parcels not over 5 kilograms (II pounds) is included in the higher charge for such shipments unless delivery is made outside of the regular delivery districts, or, in any case, beyond 3 kilometers (I.86 miles) from the station. Beyond those limits the regular charge of 20 centimes (4 cents) per kilometer for more distant delivery is made. g In the Netherlands parcels are always delivered to addressee without extra charge. But the special delivery of urgent parcels immediately on arrival is subject to additional fees. If the addressee lives within the postal district, or at not more than a quarter of an hour's distance from any post-office, the charge is . I5 florin (about 6 cents). For a delivery beyond those limits, in addition to the above charge, a further charge of . I 5 florin is made if the distance exceeds half an hour from the post-office, and a still further charge of . I 5 florin for every addi- tional distance of a quarter of an hour. In Denmark, unless specifically directed to be kept in the office to be called for, parcels are delivered to the addressee without extra charge. But in rural districts, as a rule, no packages are delivered if their weight exceeds one kilogram (2.2 pounds). In the case of heavier parcels, the addressee is notified and calls at the post-office. Special immediate delivery of urgent parcels is made for the pay- ment of extra fees. In local delivery districts, the fee is 5 öre per 9% kilogram (about I cents per I. I pounds, or I.2 cents per pound), with a minimum charge of 20 Üre (6 cents). Outside of the local delivery districts, only packages weighing not over 2.5 kilograms (5.5 pounds) are specially delivered. For these the charge is (a) for weight, 20 6re per kilogram (about 6 cents per 2.2 pounds, or 2.7 cents per pound), plus (b), for distance, 50 åre for each 2 kilometers (about 13 cents for I.24 miles, or IO.5 cents per mile) beyond the limits of the local district. Charges: The charges imposed for transportation, collection, and delivery are given in a summarized form in the accompanying chart. These cover only the services of transmitting parcels from the sender to the addressee. The fees for the special services of insurance and collection on delivery are considered separately. Since nearly all parcels are sent by the ordinary service, that is, without Special Speed or special delivery, the charges which are of most interest for comparative purposes are those for what is called Ordinary Service in the chart. In order to make reference to these easier, they are given by themselves in a separate table on page 28. | CHARGES FOR ORDINARY TRANSPORTATION, COLLECTION, AND DELIVERY OF PARCELS II POUNDS AND LESS IN THE COUNTRI HS UNDER: CONSIDERATION. cHARGEs (in cents) for PARCELs weighing Not over 2.5 kilograms. Over 2.5, not over 5 kilograms. Not over I kilogram. Over I, not over 3 kilograms. Country. Over 3, not over 5 kilograms. Over Over Over Over Over Over Over Over Over Over Not Over I pound, 2 pounds, 3 pounds, 4 pounds, 5 pounds, 6 pounds, 7 pounds; 8 pounds, 9 pounds, lo pounds, I not over º: over not Over Ilot Over not over Ilot over not Over 11 O't Over 1) Ot Over 11ot Over pound. 2 ounds 4. 6 7 8 9 I (3 I I pounds. 3 p * | pounds. pounds. pounds. pounds. pounds. pounds. pounds. pounds. England 1, any distance. 6 8 IO IO I2 I 2 I4 I6 I8 2O 22 France 3, any distance. I7 cents up to 3 kilogranls (6.6 pounds). | 2I cents from 3 to 5 kilograms (11 pounds). Germany 8, two distance zones. From 8% to 15 cents 4. From 8% to 17% cents 4 Austria”, two distance zones. 7% or 14% cents for distances under or over 46.1 miles, I espectively. Italy 1, any distance. I2 cents. | I 9.3 cents. Belgium 3, any distance. Io cents Netherlands 2, any distance. 6 cents. | 8 cents. | Io Cents. Denmark 1, any distance. 5% cents. gº 8 cents. * Collection not performed except in certain cases. 2 Collection *:::::::::::::: at all. 3 Collection perfo rmed at sender's option for special charges. No extra charge when performed. Usually not required by sender. * According to distance transported and to distance covered in delivery. See also note 3. Charge given in table does not include special charge for collection. CHART SHOWING CELARGEs For TRANSPORTATION, Cor.LEcºrron, AND DELIVERY of PARCELS II Pounds AND LEss IN THE Countries UNDER CONSIDERATION. CHARGES (in cents) FOR PARCELs werGHING Not over 2.5 kilograms. Over 2.5, not over 5 kilograms. Service. Not over 1 kilogram. Over I, not over 3 kilograms. Over 3, 11ot over 5 kilograms. Over Over Over Over Over Over Over Over Over Over Not over I pound, 2 pounds, 3 pounds, 4 pounds, 5 pounds, 6 pounds, 7 pounds, 8 pounds, 9 pounds, Io pounds, I not over tlot Over not over 11ot over not Over not Over 11ot over not over not over not Over pound. 2 3 4. 5 6 7 8 9 IO II pounds. pounds. pounds. pounds. pounds. pounds. pounds. pounds. pounds. pounds. ENGLAN ID. Transportation. 1 Collection.” Delivery : Regular delivery.” Special delivery. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 cents for each mile or fraction of a mile for a parcel of ally weight.................................. Total charge for whole service+ any ----- - distance. g & Ordinary Service............ . . . . . . 6 8 IO IO I 2 [2 I4 I6. I8 2O 22 With special delivery............. 12 and upº | 1.4 and up5 | 16 and upº | 16 and up" | 18 and upº 18 and up" | 20 and up" 22 and up" | 24 and up" 26 and upº 28 and upº FRANCE. & Transportation. • * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * I2 cents up to 3 kilograms (6.6 pounds). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . } . . . . . I6 cents from 3 to 5 kilograms (II pounds)...... Pelivery..... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 cents per parcel of any weight..................................................... Total charge for whole service? any - . distance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I7 cents up to 3 kilograms (6.6 pounds). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 I cents from 3 to 5 kilograms (11 pounds)...... GERMANY. Transportation two distance zones. Ordinary service..... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6% or 12% cents for distances under or over 46. I miles, respectively............ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Extra for fast service..............|.... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .............. . 24 cents per parcel for any distance................................................... º * * e º e s a e s e e º e s is a e < * ~ e e º e s s is a e º e º e e 2% or 3% cents in local or rural districts, respectively...... | . . . . . . .3% or 6 cents in local or rural districts, respectively....... Delivery : Regular delivery..................!. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2% cents........ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | . . . . . . . 2% or 5 cents in local or rural districts, respectively....... Special delivery. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9% or 21% cents in local or rural districts, respectively. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Total charge for whole service two distance zones. Ordinary service..... : • 2 ... •,•... • - - - - I - - - - - tº e º 'º $ tº e s = e s tº a s... Froni II #4 to 18% cents"... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . From 12% to 23% cents". . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Fast service with special delivery .......... . . . . . . . . . . ... From 42% to 61% cents"....... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . From 43% to 64 cents"... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . AUSTRIA. . . . e Transportation, two distance zones Ordinary service.*. Extra for fast service. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . 12 cents per parcel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Delivery: Regular delivery. 1 Special delivery ...... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 cents per parcel and 29 cents additional for each 4.7 miles beyond delivery limits ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Total charge for whole service” two distance zones. Ordinary service.................. Fast service with special delivery ITALY. Transportation. 1 Collection.” Delivery. 1 Total charge for whole service#any distance..... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . BELGIUM. Transportation. Ordinary service. 1 Extra for fast service." Delivery: Regular delivery. ' Special delivery. i Total charge for whole serviceº any distance. Ordinary service. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Fast service with special delivery. NETHER.I.ANDS. Transportation." Delivery : Regular delivery. ' Special delivery. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7% or 14% cents for distances under or over 46.1 miles, respectively 48% cents up 5 for first zone; 55% cents up 6 for second zone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . / A. we s = * *** *** -- ~~~ ** -- ~~~ * > * > * - - - - - - - - -- ~~ * * *- : * > - - - - - - J - * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ºn 74 ºv- slº º sº is ºr “* * * * * ~ * ****** *- : JJ AZ * * ** *** * * * *** * * * * * * * ***** *- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 12 cents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .” 19.3 cents....................... rocetits.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 cents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , s = e < * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * • * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Total charge for whole serviceº any distance. Ordinary service. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . With special delivery ..... ........ D ENMARK. Transportation. Ordinary service. 1 Extra for fast service............... Collection.” Delivery: Regular delivery.' Special delivery. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Total charge for whole service+ any distance. Ordinary service. . . . . . . . . . & e º 'º e º a tº Fast service with special delivery. 1 No separate charge. This service is covered in the total charge for the whole service. 2 Collection not performed except in certain cases. 3 Collection not included. 4 Collection not included except in certain cases. See text. 6 cents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 cents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19°tºº. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . • . . . . . . . . . . . * **** *** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * . . . . . . , , , , , , , , , , , s = e s - - - - - - - - - * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * s & 4 e a 6 a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . * * ZZ *-*-** *-s º Hº - “ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . * * * * * * * > ******* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 5 According to distance covered in special delivery. e . d i. According to distance transported aud to distance covered in collection and eilvery. 7 Does not include special delivery, which is not performed for parcels over 5.5 pounds. See text. 29 Loss and Damage: All countries make some provision to indemnify a shipper against loss or damage. But the liability for the larger in- demnities is assumed only on payment of a proportionate insurance fee. In England, the Postmaster General does not assume legal liability for any loss or damage. But as an act of grace he does compensate for loss within certain limits. In the case of unregistered parcels, the sender may secure upon request a certificate of posting. In case of loss or damage, the presentation of this certificate secures indemnity for such actual loss or damage up to £2 ($9.72) as may be shown to have occurred through fault of the parcel post. If the parcel is registered, a certificate of posting is always given certifying the payment of the registration fee and the insurance fee on the value. In case of loss or damage to such parcels, the indemnity is according to the sum in- sured. But in no case is compensation given for certain specific articles easily damageable. The charge for registration is 2 pence (4 cents). This includes in- Surance up to £5 ($24.33). Additional insurance is given at the rate of one penny (2 cents) for each £20 ($97.33), or practically 2 cents per $100, up to £400 ($1,946.6O). - In France, loss or damage to ordinary uninsured parcels, excepting that resulting from an “act of God” (force majeur), is subject to indemnity for the actual loss or damage, but not exceeding the follow- ing amounts: I5 francs ($2.90) for parcels up to 3 kilograms. 25 “ ( 4.83) “ “ “ “ 5 “ 40 “ ( 7.72) “ “ “ “ To “ For parcels with a declared value insured at the specific rates, the indemnity is for the actual loss or damage up to the amount of the value declared. The insurance charges for such parcels are as follows: For value up to 500 francs ($96.50), the insurance is at the same rates as for letters with declared value. But a special fee for reim- bursement is levied equal to the charge for transporting a C. O. D. parcel. For value over 500 francs ($96.50) to 5,000 francs ($965), the insurance charge is at the rate of Io centimes (2 cents) for 500 francs ($96.50), or practically 2 cents per $100. It is stated, however, that it is very difficult to collect indemnity in France because the complainant is required to prove absolutely that actual loss or damage has been Sustained to the amount claimed. 3O In Germany, the parcel post is liable for loss or damage to ordinary uninsured parcels up to 6 marks per kilogram ($1.42 per 2.2 pounds, or 65 cents per pound). But this is only for the proven actual amount of the loss or damage. And a receipt from the postmaster for the parcel when mailed is given only for a fee of IO pſennigs (2.5 cents). - Parcels with declared value may be insured at the rate of 5 pfennigs per 300 marks (I}4 cents per $71.25), or 134 cents per $100, with a minimum charge of IO pfennigs (2% cents). A receipt for Such par- ceſs is given free of charge. In any case, if a shipper wishes to have a parcel traced, a fee of 20 pfennigs (5 cents) is charged for each tracer. In Austria, insurance of parcels of declared value is provided for, but the information obtainable does not indicate the charges. In Italy, uninsured parcels are subject to indemnity for actual loss or damage, other than that caused by act of God (force majeur), up to I5 lira ($2.90). Parcels with a declared value are subject to in- demnity for actual loss or damage up to the amount of the declared value. The charges for this insurance are at the rate of Io centimes (1.93 cents) per 300 lira ($57.90), or 3% cents per $100. In Belgium, packages sent by ordinary speed may be insured at the rate of 6 centimes (I 1/5 cents) per 1,000 francs ($193), or about 6 cents per $1OO. But the total charge for both transportation (50 cen- times for 5 kilograms, or II pounds, and less), and insurance may not be less than 80 centimes (I6 cents). Packages sent by fast speed Service pay twice the above rates. * . In Denmark, there is no limit to the amount of value insurable. The fee is 15 öre (about 4 cents) for the first 1,000 kronas ($268), or about I}% cents per $100, and 5 öre (about I; cents) for each addi- tional I,000 kronas, or about 9% cent per $100. No provisions for insurance against loss or damage are reported for the Netherlands in the information at hand. There seems to be only one country that provides for insurance against undue delay in the delivery of parcels. France and Germany, at least, have established a “legal time” within which the parcel post must effect delivery or become liable to damages. But the claimant must prove that actual damage resulted on account of the delay, and the difficulties in establishing such proof are so great that indemnity is seldom secured. But Belgium provides for special insurance to any amount against delay in delivery. The charge is I franc (19.3 cents) for each 500 francs ($96.50), or practically 20 cents per $100. But 31 here also the claimant must prove that actual damage has resulted on account of the delay before he can receive any indemnity. Collection on Delivery Service: In most of the countries under con- sideration, parcels may be sent C. O. D. by the parcel post. In Eng- land, the efforts to establish this service have been successfully resisted by local merchants. No information is at hand for Austria or the Netherlands. - In France, the charges for this service are minutely graduated to meet several contingencies. Thus, the fee for an amount not over 500 francs ($96.50) is 60 centimes (12 cents), including the stamp tax of Io centimes (2 cents), if the collection is returned only to the railway station of the shipper; this is about 12% cents or more per $IOO. 85 centimes (17 cents), including the stamp tax of Io centimes (2 cents), if the collection is returned to the domicile of the shipper; this is about 17% cents or more per $10O. For an amount over 500 francs ($96.50) up to 1,000 francs ($193.OO), the fee is 85 centimes (I7 cents), including stamp tax, if returned to rail- way station; this is from 8.8 cents to 17% per $100. . I IO centimes (22 cents), including stamp tax, if returned to domicile; this is from II.8 to 23.6 cents per $100. If the collection is made from an addressee in a locality not having a railway station, an additional charge of 25 centimes (5 cents) is made. This charge is the same as that for bringing to the railway station a parcel received in a locality not on the railway. ... • In Germany, C. O. D. Service is rendered by the parcel post for sums Only up to 800 marks ($190.40). But the railway express service will accept C. O. D. deliveries without limit to the amount of the collection. The parcel-post charge for this service is not stated in the information at hand. The collection is returned to the shipper by postal order or, if he has an account with the post-office, by postal check. Italy imposes a uniform charge of 25 centimes (4.8 cents) per pack- age for the collection. This charge may cover several parcels if sent by the same person to one addressee. For the transmission of the 32 money to the shipper, postal money orders are used at the usual charges for those Orders. The charges in Belgium for C. O. D. service are For 200 francs ($38.60) or less, 20 centimes (4 cents). This is Io.3 cents or more per $10O. Between 200 and 1,000 francs ($193), 60 centimes (I2 cents). This is from 6.2 cents to 31 cents per $100. For each 1,000 francs additional, 10 centimes (2 cents). This is about I cent per $10O. Denmark's parcel post performs C. O. D. service for sums up to 72O kroner ($192.96). But the information at hand does not give the charges for this service. METHOD OF HANDLING PARCELS In those countries that operate the parcel service as part of the postal administration, it appears that the parcels are handled as part of the general mail traffic whenever their weight or bulk or their whole volume does not make it more economical to handle them separately. In England, the parcels average much lighter than elsewhere. They are, accordingly, handled side by side with the other mails to a greater extent than elsewhere in Europe. The only separation consists in put- ting the parcels into separate sacks, whenever they are numerous enough to justify it, and in handling them by a separate force of em- ployees in separate buildings in those cities where the volume of parcel traffic requires it. On the railways the sacks of parcels and Sacks of mail are carried on the same trains and in the same cars except when the volume of parcel traffic makes a separate car for the parcels serv- iceable. On the Continent, however, the parcels average much heavier than in England. The handling of the parcel traffic is accordingly separated from the handling of mail to a greater extent. Indeed, the greater part of the volume of the parcel traffic is carried on routes where the traffic is sufficiently dense to permit separate handling in separate cars and frequently on slower trains than those on which the bulk of the mail moves. But, while this is true for the greater volume of the traffic, the greater number of points of dispatch send off the parcels and the mail traffic together. Only in the larger cities are the parcels 33 handled in separate buildings by a separate force of employees. In towns off the main lines, especially, the parcels and the mail are handled side by side. But even in these cases the parcels are usually carried in separate bags. The question of separating the parcels from the mail appears to turn always on considerations of economy in handling. For the sake of this economy, the Speed of the regular mail schedule is sacrificed, and the Sorting of parcels, as to destination, be- fore placing them on the trains is carried much farther than is the case with mail. The parcel traffic can thus be handled to better advantage in partial or complete separation from the mail whenever the density of the traffic permits it. In France and Belgium, where the small-parcel service is operated by the railways instead of the postal department, the parcel traffic is quite apart from the mail. In France it is entirely so, with very few exceptions. It is carried on the trains that carry the regular express traffic. And these, except on branch lines and in the case of accommo- dation trains, are not trains that carry mails or passengers. This ap- pears to be the case in Belgium also, where the Small-parcel business is virtually a part of the general facilities for express transportation. RELATION OF THE RAILWAYS TO THE PARCEL POST Highway Transportation: The railways are the main, though not the only, transportation agency used by the parcel-post service. Horse- drawn coaches have always been used between points that were not both on a railway. In England, where the railways receive 55 per cent of the postal charges on parcels transported by them, the government has long utilized coaches wherever a saving in the cost of carriage could be effected even between points that were both on a railway. In recent years the use of motor vans for this purpose has increased the distance covered by this Service to as much as IIo miles and I2O miles. A similar development has taken place in other countries, but not to the same degree as in England. There the number of parcels carried wholly in this way is now about 18 per cent of the total. Train and Car Service for the Parcel Post: In England, every rail- way company is required to “convey by any trains by which passengers, goods, or parcels are conveyed,” all parcels tendered by the Post Office Department. In practice, the postal parcels are carried on passenger trains in the baggage cars. Whenever the volume of parcel traffic requires it, cars are provided exclusively for the parcels. 3—R 34 In France, where the railways operate the parcel service under the general supervision of the government, the parcel-post traffic is carried on the same trains as the grande vitesse traffic which, with respect to the character of the traffic, though not the character of the service, is analogous to the express traffic in the United States. This business is almost never carried on passenger trains, except those of the lowest type like local accommodation trains. On the main lines, the traffic is carried between the larger centers on trains run exclusively for this business, mostly in the night, carrying no passengers, and making 25 or 28 miles an hour, including stops. For distribution to smaller towns along the main line and for the whole traffic on branch lines having no exclusively grands vitesse trains, accommodation passenger trains carry the parcel traffic. These slow passenger trains run at speeds up to 25 or 28 miles an hour. The other passenger trains carry first-class or first and second-class passengers only and baggage. Express matter or parcel-post matter is never carried, except under very exceptional conditions. The cars used for the parcel post are ordinary baggage cars. They are entirely separate from the regular mail cars. Apparently they are more analogous to the “storage” cars used in the American railway postal service. In Germany, parcel-post matter is carried on most trains that carry mails. But the railway management has the right to exclude parcels from certain trains of great speed and to limit the amount carried on any train if necessary to maintain the passenger service. While some parcels are carried on most mail trains, nevertheless on those routes where the traffic is denser the bulk of the business is concentrated on the slower passenger trains, and even in Some cases on the fastest freight trains. So that, considering the traffic in its aggregate volume, the greater part of it is carried on slow passenger trains and to some extent, on the fastest freight trains. Both kinds of trains make about 25 or 28 miles an hour, including stops. Only the urgent packages, carried on Special Speed, may demand transportation on the fastest mail and passenger trains. The cars used for postal parcels are mail cars, baggage cars, or ordinary freight cars, according to whether the traffic is carried with the mail, apart from the mail on passenger trains, or on fast freight trains. The greater part of the whole volume of business is carried in baggage cars and, to Some extent, in freight cars. 35 In Denmark, the train service at the disposal of the parcel post is much the same as in Germany. Only those packages Shipped as urgent or “express” packages can claim transportation on any train accom- panied by postal agents. All other packages are carried on Ordinary passenger trains, and in express trains only when they can conveniently be taken into the mail car. It is only for exceptional reasons that a car exclusively for parcel-post matter will be hauled in express trains, and even then only in those express trains that carry the express goods of the state railways. The mail cars required for the accommodation of the parcel traffic are, on the private railways, no greater in number than they would be if the parcel traffic were not carried with the mail. But on the state railways, the mail cars have at least special compartments for packages. And on Some through routes, special cars are required for the packages. No other information on the railway train service in other countries is at hand than that considered above. Compensation to Railways for Parcel-Post Service: Whether the railways are under private ownership or government ownership, the question of compensation to the private companies or of allowance to the railway department of the government for the service to the parcel post has to be met. In England, the government pays the railways 55 per cent of the postage charges on the parcels transported by them. This sum is paid over to the London Railway Clearing Committee which apportions it among the various railways. The basis of apportionment is the rela- tive amount of each railway's gross receipts from its own small pack- age business carried independently of the parcel-post traffic. In order to adjust the amount of service rendered to the amount of compen- sation thus determined, the Postmaster General is required to apportion the parcel-post traffic among the railways in accordance with their shares of the aggregate compensation to all the railways. For this purpose, the Postmaster General is required to keep for one week each half year a record of the traffic carried by each railway during the period. & In France, all but one of the railways are under private ownership, and the parcel service is directly operated by the railways themselves. The apportionment of the traffic is thus determined by the competitive activities of the railways themselves and the convenience of the Shippers. 36 . Also, the railway compensation is received directly by the railways, since they collect the charges. The government receives IO centimes (2 cents) on every package, regardless of weight. The compensation to the railways is, then, for a parcel Up to 3 kilograms (6.6 pounds), 50 centimes (IO cents). From 3 to 5 kilograms (II pounds), 70 centimes (I4 cents). The apportionment of the charges to the different railways, in the case of parcels traveling over more than one line, has been based on the average distance traversed by Such parcels on each railway. A short time ago the railways ascertained these average distances for a period of three years. This three-year average is the basis for the ap- portionment of the revenues on through business. The Imperial Postal Law of Germany requires the railways to carry free of charge On every passenger train one postal car belonging to the postal department. The postal department may load in this car parcels weighing not over IO kilograms (22 pounds). For parcels Over IO kilograms in weight, and for any additional cars for any parcels or for mail, the railways are entitled to compensation. The transportation of parcels over IO kilograms in weight is paid for ac- cording to the number of such parcels, as ascertained from time to time. Additional car space is paid for according to distance traveled, approximately on the net cost to the railways. In Austria, the privately owned railways are obligated by their charter to furnish, free of charge, a certain number of postal cars on Specially designated trains. In so far as these cars accommodate the parcel traffic in addition to the regular mail on those lines, the railways receive no compensation for the service to the parcel post. Cars furnished in addition to those stipulated for in the charter are paid for by the government at specified rates. But the information at hand does not indicate what the rates are. On the government railways, the postal department pays the railway department 50 per cent of the expense incurred in the transportation of the mail, determined by a very complicated method. - In Italy, while ordinary mail matter is carried free by the railways, the Service to the parcel post is compensated on a prescribed schedule as follows: 37. For every two compartments (% of a car) on through trains, .IO25 lire per kilometer (3.2 cents per mile). For every two compartments on local trains, .O725 lire per kilo- meter (2.2 cents per mile). For every single compartment on through trains, .O6833 lire per kilometer (2.15 cents per mile). For every single compartment on local trains, .O4982 lire per kilometer (I.56 cents per mile). * In Belgium, the parcel service is operated by the railway department. The whole receipts from the traffic are thus left with the railways, but they perform not only the transportation of the traffic, but every service connected with the business. In the Netherlands, the compensation to the railways for carrying The entire receipts from the traffic are thus left with the railways, parcel-post matter was fixed after much discussion at two-thirds of the postal charges on the traffic. This is now considered a high rate of compensation. In Denmark, railway compensation is based on the size of the cars furnished and the distance, without respect to the kind of mail carried. The cars in which practically all of the parcel-post matter is carried are subject to these rates: On the state railways, 2.5 öre per Square meter per kilometer (about 1/3 cent per linear foot-mile). On the private railways, I. 15 öre per square meter per kilometer (about 1/6 cent per linear foot-mile). 38 ESTIMATES OF THE NUMBER AND AGGREGATE WEIGHT OF PARCELS - I. IN CASE OF MONOPOLY I. Estimate Based on European Parcel Post As stated in the summary, the first question examined is that touch- ing the probable volume of the parcel traffic, assuming that there will be a postal monopoly. The first estimate is based on a study of foreign experience, taking into account various differences between the United States and the several foreign countries. The facts as to these differ- ences can, in some cases, be expressed statistically. But more fre- quently they do not lend themselves to direct measurement, if they permit of measurement at all. Their influence in determining the result in such a case depends entirely upon judgment. Such figures as may be had are valuable only as aids to the judgment. A more explicit statement of these factors and their availability as statistical quanti- ties follows. Transportation facilities: As these increase, an increasing propor- tion of people are afforded means for sending and receiving parcels. A measure of this condition is found in the railway mileage per unit of area occupied by the population in question. Commercial temperament and mutual personal ties or interests: Nations differ in the readiness of their people to supply themselves directly from producers or extend their sales directly to consumers through direct retail channels. They differ also in the number and degree of those mutual personal interests which give rise to the non- commercial movement of small parcels. This factor is a difficult one to measure. Some index of this influence may be had in the ratio of railway trips to the whole population, inasmuch as that temperament which prompts people to seek commercial dealings with each other over various distances, and the personal ties that motive the exchange of gifts, etc., also induce people to travel on errands of business or socia- bility. Yet this index is but crude. Letters and communications per I,OOO population may also be noted as another index to this factor. Territorial specialization in production, or, conversely, local self- sufficiency: This is closely associated with the preceding factor. It depends in part on the business temperament of the people, but much more on the relative concentration or dispersion of the resources of a country, and, therefore, demands consideration as an independent in- 39 fluence. The bearing of this factor is that territorial specialization involves a greater exchange of products among the people, and this would express itself partly in a larger parcel traffic. This factor, how- ever, cannot be given statistical expression. Only the relative degree of specialization in different countries can be noted. Development of retail distributing agencies: Where the commercial organization has developed channels through which consumers are in direct commercial contact with their sources of supply, there a given population will engage in a larger Small-parcel traffic than where the distributing organization makes greater use of middlemen who handle the wares in larger consignments. This also is a factor that cannot be statistically measured, but must be noted in terms of the relative devel- opment of the given country. The prosperity of the people: It is obvious that, other things being equal, a nation enjoying a prosperous development will produce a greater parcel traffic than one whose people are more limited in their production and enjoyment of wealth. This will appear both in the commercial and the personal element of the small parcel movement. One indication of the relative prosperity of a people may be had in the per capita wealth and income, although these cannot be determined except by approximation.” ''The data at hand may be briefly stated : United Kingdom: Giffen, in 1903, estimated the wealth of the United Kingdom at £15,000,000,000, and the annual income at £1,750,000,000. These figures are equal to $73,000,000,000 and $8,500,000,000 respectively. On the basis of the estimated population in 1903, namely, 42,371,000, the per capita wealth and per capita income were respectively $1,723 and $2OI. France: Webb's Dictionary of Statistics quotes (le I, avergne & II enry, “La Richesse de la France,” giving the wealth of France in 1907 as $43,800,000,000, and the annual income as from $4,400,000,000 to $5,300,000,000. If we call it $5,000,000,000, then the per capita wealth and income for 1907 were respectively $1,116 and $127. - Denmark : Webb's Dictionary of Statistics quotes Raffalovich giving the wealth of Denmark in 1900 as $1,946,000,000. The per capita wealth was then, for 1900, $791. No estimate is given of the national income. Germany: Schmoller, in 1903, estimated the wealth of Germany at $48,600,- OOO,000, and the annual income at $6,000,000,000. Steinmann Bücher in 1908 placed them at $77,800,000,000 and $8,500,000,000. . The increase would hardly be so much in six years. Either Schmoller is too low for 1903 or Bücher is too high for 1908. Perhaps safer figures to take for 1908 would be $65,000,000,000 and $7,000,000,000. These yield per capita amounts respectively of $952 and $1 II, on an estimated population of 63,000,000 for 1908. United States: Giffen, in 1903, estimated the wealth of the United States to be $87,500,000,000 and the annual income to be $13,500,000,000. Estimating the population in 1903 at 80,700,000, gives, per capita figures respectively of $1,084. and $167. The Census estimate of national wealth in 1900 is $88,500,000,000; in 1904, $107,100,000,000. These are equivalent to $1,165 and $1,318 respectively per capita. If we divide the difference between these estimates of national wealth, we have about $1,200 per capita. The national income may be placed at $175 per capita. - 4O Readiness to spend: In connection with the prosperity of the people, there ought to be considered their readiness to consume as opposed to a propensity to hoard or save their wealth. Greater consumption in- volves the exchange or “spending” of individual resources and the ensuing traffic which spending creates. But, here again, no measure of this factor is available. Some light on its strength may be had from the statistics of savings depositors per unit of population, yet these statistics are affected by other influences than the relative force of the tendencies to spend and to save. The relative charge for transporting parcels: This requires no dis- cussion. It is a factor, also, that can easily be expressed statistically.” The length of haul: This exerts its influence on the volume of traffic chiefly through its effect on the charge. In the first place, when- ever the rate is a flat rate, regardless of distance, any difference in the length of haul as between different countries is expressed in, and therefore accounted for, in the difference in the charge. In the second place, if the charges are graduated according to distance, the scale of charges will rise to a higher maximum charge in a country where the distances are longer, in so far as the cost of hauling greater dis- tances is given consideration in fixing the charges. Accordingly, the longer average haul will be expressed in, and therefore accountel for, in a higher average of the charges. In so far as the greater cost of a longer haul is not given consideration in fixing charges, the length of haul will have no influence on the volume of traffic. But the length of haul has an independent influence through the time required for parcels to pass from sender to consignee. The influ- ence of time is, however, two-edged. On the one hand, in the case of perishable goods, since a longer haul requires more time for transit, not as much perishable traffic will be shipped where the haul is long as where it is short. Consequently any country which has an appre- ciably longer average haul than another will tend to have a smaller relative parcel traffic by the amount of perishable goods that are pre- vented from moving because of the time consumed in transit. In the case of other than perishable goods, it is doubtful if the number of parcels would be restricted because of the longer time required for a longer haul. "The charges for different countries have been given in the section dealing with the parcel post of other countries, See page 27. 4I On the other hand there is the case of urgent shipments. The longer the haul the greater the difference in time between freight and quick transportation. When urgency is of concern to the shipper, then the longer the haul the greater the inducement to ship by fast service in- stead of freight. So that any country having a longer average haul than another will tend to have a relatively larger parcel traffic by the amount of urgent shipments sent by parcel post in preference to slower transportation agencies. But, as concerns parcels of II pounds or under, freight is far less frequently a feasible alternative to high- speed service than would be the case with heavier packages. Hence, Small parcels would go by postal Service anyway, regardless of urgency, and length of haul would have little influence on small parcel traffic on account of the element of time, considered in this second aspect. On the whole, length of haul would probably have little influence on the volume of small parcel traffic aside from its effect through the rate charged; and when the differences in rate are considered in estimating probable traffic in terms of numbers of parcels or tons, differences in length of haul may be neglected. When the question of ton-mileage and cost of carriage is involved, length of haul becomes important in itself. Density of population: This is always named as an important factor in determining the volume of parcel traffic. But its influence is indirect. It is because density of population affects the number of mutual inter- ests, the profitableness of specialization in production, the growth of transportation facilities and of distributing agencies, the development of the commercial spirit, that it is so important a factor in the volume of traffic. When, therefore, account is taken of each of these more direct influences, density of population is allowed for at the same time. In comparing countries as to the ratio of parcels to population, one must note, also, that these various factors, through which the influence of density of population is felt, are not uniformly affected by such density in all cases, because they are affected by other influences also. The futility of a direct comparison of density of population is apparent, for example, in the case of Belgium and Denmark in the table follow- ing. * In the accompanying table, data are presented, as far as available, for the different countries in relation to the factors just discussed. The countries are arranged in the order of the volume of their parcel traffic per 1,000 population. The year 1908 is the latest for which data that 42 are comparable in time can be had, hence most of the data are selected for that year. Employing the data contained in this table, a detailed comparison between the United States and each of the countries named has been made. On the basis of these comparisons, a judgment has been made as to whether the United States should expect a larger or a smaller parcel traffic than that of the country under comparison. For the time being, however, the influence of difference in charges has been ignored by assuming that the rate of charges in the United States would be on the same level as those of the foreign countries. The reason for this is that the charge is far the most arbitrary factor and entirely within the power of Congress to determine. The estimate of the volume of parcels will be more serviceable if it is based on a comparison of all the other less variable conditions, and is then left for adjustment to whatever schedule of charges may eventually be adopted. An attempt will be made later to judge the probable charge and modify the estimate of volume of traffic in accordance with it. To shorten this explanation of the estimate of the volume of parcels, it may be stated at once that the probable traffic for the United States is judged to be greater than that for France or any country having a * The authority for the figures can be briefly stated. Area and population are taken from the Statesman's Year Book, or calculated on data given therein, except in the case of the United States, the figures for which rest on the Census of 1910. The number of parcels per 1,000 population was computed from figures given in Statistique Générale du Service Postale issued by the Universal Postal Union. This was done even in the case of three or four countries for which government statistics are available, because it was assumed that all the data would then be more consistent and comparable. In Norway, Sweden, Belgium, France, Austria, Denmark, and Germany, the limit of weight is higher than II pounds. (See account in description of foreign parcel-post systems, pp. —.) The reports of the Universal Postal Union give only the total number of parcels for all weights within the maximum. However, the number weighing IT pounds and under was computed for Germany and France by means of percentages obtained from the respective government statistics. In the case of Austria, no recent reports were available to supply such percentages, but the percentage for Germany was applied, on the assumption that the experience of Austria is about the same, since Austria’s parcel-post system is essentially the same as Germany's. The density of population was computed from the figures given for area and population. The railway mileage per T,000 population was computed from figures given in the respective government railway statistics in the case of Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. For the remaining countries, the data were taken from the Statesman's Year Book. The average haul and the average number of railway trips per inhabitant were derived from the respective government railway statistics. The average charge per parcel was computed as described in the section on foreign parcel-post systems. The wealth and income per capita are based on estimates of various economists and statisticians as related in note I, page 19. The number of sav- ings depositors is taken from a table in the World's Almanac based on reports of the Comptroller of the Currency. - 43 smaller volume than France. The detailed comparison will be here made only with the last four countries named in the table. Of these Denmark can quickly be set aside because of the lack of information on that part of the traffic that falls within the limit of II pounds. - Austria is more fully supplied with railway mileage than the United States as a whole, but not so well as the section east of the Mississippi and the Missouri rivers. The density of population is much greater than in the United States, either as a whole or in the eastern half. But the density does not seem to have wrought its due effects through the indirect agencies of its influence. In commercial temperament and in territorial specialization, Austria is well developed, but not to the same extent as the United States. In these matters Austria—like all the old- world countries—feels the inertia of the traditions associated with age- long local self-sufficiency. Similarly the distributing machinery of trade is limited to narrow circles. In point of wealth and income Austria is not the equal of the United States. When the difference in diffusion of wealth is considered, Austria's position is still more un- favorable. Finally, the average American spends more freely than the inhabitant of Austria. These points all argue for a larger parcel traffic in the United States than exists in Austria. But there are some offsetting considerations. Aside from the difference in charges, which is for the time left out of account, there is the long period in Austria during which a parcel post has been in operation. The people have grown up accustomed to its use and have developed traditions which encourage them to use that means of transportation, as a matter of course, to the neglect of the development of others. It is certain that Austria's parcel post carries much more traffic than would a recently established system. Yet it is not possible that this force of habit would wholly neutralize other influences in favor of a larger traffic in the United States, assum- ing charges to be equal. It seems certain, on the whole, that the esti- mate for the United States should appreciably exceed the present par- cel traffic of Austria. wº The United Kingdom is a country with dense railway mileage and dense population, and the density of population has the antici- pated effect through the indirect factors affecting parcel traffic. The inhabitants, especially of England, are intensely commercial, have de- veloped great Specialization in production and elaborate retail distrib- 44 COMPARISON OF FIGURES AFFECTING THE Number Densit Railwa *::::Ad" area in |ojä- ºf iº Country. under per square miles. Population. º freight *...* *::Fºr inité. in miles. miles. Russia (European). 87 I,862,524 II.3,841, OOO 6I . . . . . . . . I8 Italy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 334 IIo,550 | 34,565,000° 3IO I 5.5 95 Norway . . . . . . . . . . 34I* I24, I29 2,441,634 19 | . . . . . . . . I4 Sweden. . . . . . . . . . . 572? 172,876 5,429,6OO 30 | . . . . . . . . 48 Belgium. . . . . . . . . . 698? II,373 7,224,03 I 635 49. 7 253 Netherlands . . . . . . 886 I2,648 5,825, 198 460 | . . . . . . . . I5 I France . . . . . . . . . . . 891 2O7,054 || 39,252,245° I89 83.6 I45 Austria. . . . . . . . . . . I,3O4 II5,903 || 27,736,187 239 60.5 II5 Denmark. . . . . . . . . 2, 176* I 5,592 2,605,268 I67 | . . . . . . . . I 34 United Kingdom. . . 2,442 I2 I, 39 I 44,538,718 367 . . . . . . . . I9 I Germany (Impe- 3,702 I59,678 || 51,864,824 3OI 60.4 I74 rial Postal Terri- - tory). - United St a tes 2,974, I59 || 88,776,727 3O 253. O 77 (continent, omit- ting Alaska). United States (east I, Io9,687 69.816,027 64 | . . . . . . . I36 of Mississippi and M is so u ri rivers— Groups I to VI). * Data are for the year 1908, except as noted. * Number within 11 pounds not ascertainable. Figures in table are for total number within 45 PROBABLE VOLUME OF PARCEL-POST TRAFFIC." Number Railway aß. §:#er wealth Income 3: . trips per cards per parcel per capita per capita §: I, OOO Country. inhabitant. *...* (cents). (dollars). (dollars). Pºla- tº 1OIl. * * * * g e º it tº 7,797 |. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Russia (European). tº e e º 'º e º te e 9,494 I5.0 |. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206 Italy. 5.5 29,334 | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36I Norway. & ſº e º & e º º & 25,586 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 375 Sweden. 25 29,372 22. O | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 363 Belgium. • * g º e º e º e 33,259 8.5 |. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 288 Netherlands. I 2 3O,497 I5.3 I, II6 127 327 France. 8 34,775 I2.8 |. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 II Austria. tº $ tº tº $ tº tº e e 46,690 . . . . . . . . . 791 | . . . . . . . . . 476 || Denmark. 28 85,631 9.6 I,723 2O I 287 United Kingdom. 24 77,937 I4.6 952 I I I 3O4 Germany (Impe- - rial Postal Terri- tory). I O 8o, OO6 46. O I,2OO I75 98 United States (continent, omit- ting Alaska). $ tº # * a tº tº e º e º $ & © tº ſº tº º tº 46. O | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . United States (east of M is sissippi a n d M is souri rivers — Groups I to VI). maximum limit of weight. * 191o. * 1906. See under description of foreign parcel-post systems, page 22. 46 uting agencies. These facts, with the very low average charge per parcel, show their influence in the relatively heavy parcel traffic. It must be noted that the postal parcels comprise only part of this traffic. The railways have organized an effective competition with the post- office for part of this package business. This is but part of the English business practice of shipping in Small consignments with great fre- quency. The British government has no statistics of the volume of this railway traffic, and it is not ascertainable from any privately published records. But, from general descriptive accounts, it is apparently a large part of the whole. The data given for the parcel-post business are thus only a partial index of the extent of the package traffic which has developed under the favorable conditions arising from English density of population, commercial genius, and business practice. There are two respects in which the United States is better condi- tioned for a heavy parcel business than England. The per capita wealth of the United Kingdom was estimated about 1903 to be greater than for the United States. That this relation exists at the present time may be questioned. In any case, if allowance be made for difference in diffu- sion of wealth, the average American is certainly better off than the average Englishman. Then, in the freedom with which he spends, the American surpasses the Englishman. But the influence of these cannot be equal to that of the greater density of population, the more intense commercialism, the greater specialization of production, the more de- veloped retail distribution, and the much lower average charge. Add to them the compactness of the population, their territorial isolation, and the habits and traditions due to the growth during a generation in the use of the parcel post, and it is certain that England's total parcel traffic greatly exceeds what might be expected in the United States; and even the postal parcels carried may safely be assumed to equal, and prob- ably to exceed, that business which the United States might expect in the reasonably near future on essentially the same rates. In order to have railway and postal statistics comparable for Ger- many, it was necessary to limit consideration to only that part of Ger- many included within the imperial postal jurisdiction—that is, omitting Württemberg and Bavaria, each of which has its own postal adminis- tration. This, however, comprises over 82 per cent of the whole area of Germany. This area is well supplied with railway mileage. It has a density of population nearly as great as the United Kingdom and nearly as influential in its bearing on the factors of parcel traffic. As 47. compared with the United States, Germany is better supplied with rail- ways than the United States as a whole, but not much better than the section east of the Mississippi and Missouri rivers. The density of population is ten times that of the United States as a whole and nearly. five times that of the eastern section. But in all the direct factors, except the length of haul and, by consequence, the charges, Germany is at more or less of a disadvantage with the United States. This dis- advantage, however, is doubtless more than equalized by the attitude of the Germans toward the use of governmental agencies and toward this old institution in particular. This would count heavily against an equal use of the parcel post in the United States for many years. Then, too, the American is habituated to shipping in wholesale lots in contrast with the German's greater use of small consignments, and he would be held to that method for the sake of cheapness whenever the matter of urgency was not important. This would restrict the use of the postal service for shipment of commercial articles below the develop- ment to be found in Germany. Finally, the German parcel post admits as mailable many things, such as live animals, vegetables, fish, which probably would not be mailable in the United States. On the whole, it appears unquestionable that the German traffic in the class of parcels in question is well in excess of what might be expected in the United States. - Summarizing this comparison of the conditions in the United States with those in other countries, the probable volume of parcel traffic to be expected here is indicated to lie between that of Austria and that of Great Britain, with a much closer approach to that of Great Britain. As the number of parcels per I,OOO population per year in Austria is I,3O4 and in the United Kingdom 2,442, it may be fair to estimate that the number to be expected in the United States would be about 2,200 parcels. For the whole population, this would amount to about 200,000,- OOO parcels a year in 1908 or 1909. Since the latest complete data ob- tainable for this and the remaining estimates are all of about the date I908 or IQO9, it will be better to make the preliminary estimate as of that date, making final allowance for increase of traffic up to the present time. It should be remembered that in arriving at this estimate ac- count has not been taken of the probability of a higher parcel rate in the United States. - 48 2. Estimate of the Average Weight and the Total Tonnage of Parcels An estimate of the aggregate tonnage of this parcel traffic requires, first, an estimate of the average weight of the parcel-post packages. The data for this are the following: An investigation by the Minnesota Railroad and Warehouse Com- mission into the express business for that State resulted in the com- pilation of full information concerning the interstate, intrastate and transit business of Wells, Fargo and Company for the months of August and December, 1909. From this it appears that the average weight of pieces II pounds and less was about 4.34 pounds." The Interstate Commerce Commission, for use in its investigation of the express companies, made a detailed analysis of the business for one day each for the Adams Company and the United States Com- pany. This showed that the average weight of pieces II pounds and less was 4.36 pounds for the Adams Company on August 18, 1909, and 4.20 pounds for the United States Company on December 22, I909. For the same investigation, the Adams Express Company analysed its business forwarded from 16 offices for the six days, August 14 to I9, 191 I. From the returns of this analysis the average weight of the merchandise class of business under II pounds, together with section D and section E classes,” was 4.36 pounds. On the basis of the data for the whole express traffic in 1909, pub- lished in the First Annual Report of the Interstate Commerce Com- mission on the Statistics of Express Companies, a graphical estimate of the characteristics of that part of the traffic within the limit of II pounds were made as described in Appendix III. From this it appears that the average weight of pieces II pounds and less was about 4.45 pounds. t These data indicate that the average weight of express packages in the United States is something less than 4.5 pounds. The average * The average weight is obtained directly by dividing the aggregate weight by the total number of parcels. These data for parcels, II pounds and under, had to be estimated in the manner described on page 56. But the data given for the weights of parcels are the weights, charged for, not the actual weights of the parcels. Since the charges at that time were graded to a scale of weights as foll lows: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 10, 15, etc., packages actually weighing amounts between these quantities are averaged in at the higher weights. The average is thus somewhat above the average of the actual weights. * For description of these classes of traffic see page 66. Merchandise packages under II pounds and sections D and E business, which are practically ail within the II pound limit, comprise nearly the whole traffic under II pounds. 49 weight of parcel-post packages would probably be less than this, even in case the parcel post took over the express traffic under a monopoly. In the first place, there would be a great deal of express business of the heavier pieces up to II pounds that would find the parcel-post charges as usually proposed, namely, 8 cents a pound,-prohib- itively high. This will appear from the comparison of the charges with present express charges made in the table of Appendix V. It is estimated later that the part of the express packages that would be transferred to a parcel post would average only about 4 pounds each." In the second place, the parcel-post packages would average less than this weight, because there would be an infusion of new business which would consist chiefly of lighter packages than those now carried by express.” This would reduce the average weight of the whole parcel-post traffic below that for the express packages transferred from the express companies. In view of these considera- tions, it seems probable that the average weight of parcel-post pack- ages in case of a postal monopoly would be about 3.75 pounds.” * See page 65, note I. * The reasons for this opinion are given in the discussion on page 62. * The experience of other countries is not considered to be a very valuable guide for estimating the probable average weight of parcels in the United States. The available data for other countries are briefly as here given. The average weight of parcels II pounds and under is not given in the statistics for Germany. But from data which is there given, an estimate by the graphical method can be made. (See Appendix II.) This indicates an average weight of about 5.5 pounds. The data at hand for Austria indicate an average weight slightly less than that for Germany. A graphical estimate on data available for France indicates an average weight of about 5.25 pounds for parcels II pounds and less. No complete data have been secured for Italy. But such as have been available show such a relation to the data for France as to suggest clearly that the average weight of parcels II pounds and less is about the average for France. The postal statistics for the United Kingdom do not give the average weight of parcels or any data from which it can be calculated, except the average postage collected per parcel. On this limited basis, the average weight can be estimated at about 2.8 pounds. The reports for New Zealand show by direct calculation an average weight of 3.4 pounds. The international parcel-post traffic to and from the United States is limited to parcels of II pounds. This shows an average weight of almost exactly 3 pounds for parcels dispatched and 4.7 pounds for parcels received. Considering the applicability of these averages to the United States, the follow- ing comments may be noted: The average for Germany is probably higher than should be expected here, because the scheme of relative charges for different weights and distances is such as to cause shipments to be broken into packages not exceeding II pounds in weight whenever possible. This crowds a larger number of heavier packages within the II-pound limit than would normally be found there. The same is doubtless true for Austria, which has the same relation among relative charges. Another consideration is that the charges are not graduated according to weight over the same range as the proposed charges for the United States. The charge is the same for all weights under II pounds, 4—R 50%. On the basis of this estimate of average weight, the 200,000,000 parcels, which was the volume indicated by the comparison with foreign parcel-post experience, as of the year 1909,-would weigh 750,000,000 pounds, or 375,000 tons. 3. Tonnage Estimate Based on Comparative Freight Traffic The parcel transportation agencies are part of the general transporta- tion system. The volume of traffic through the parcel branch would expand and contract along with the volume through the freight trans- portation agencies of the railways in response to changes in the busi- ness conditions. There are two considerations, however, which tend away from constancy in this relationship. One is the fact that a large part of the small parcel traffic represents expressions of personal interest and family ties instead of business transactions. There is no direct relation between the volume of such traffic and the state of. business activity. It may be said, however, that an indirect relation exists, because this movement of parcels depends on individual pros- perity, which in turn varies with the general state of business. The Other consideration is the observed fact that, with a decline in business prosperity, there is a tendency for merchants, especially retailers, to let stocks run low and order at the last moment in small amounts just sufficient to satisfy immediate demand. Since such hand-to-mouth the only difference being according to the distance. The proposed charges for the United States range from 8 cents for one pound to 88 cents for II pounds. This range of charges would tend to check the shipment of heavier parcels and encourage the shipment of lighter parcels to a greater extent than is the case in Germany and Austria. Thus the average weight would probably be consider- ably less in the United States than the average weight in those countries. This last point applies to France and Italy also. The charges in those countries distinguish only two weight divisions, namely, parcels up to 3 kilograms and those between 3 and 5 kilograms. Obviously, the proposed charges for the United States would tend to a larger proportion of lighter parcels, and hence a lower average weight, than is found in those countries. Not enough is known of the character of the traffic in New Zealand to pass definitely upon the ap- plicability of this average to the United States, but the newness of the country and its less advanced development raise some doubt in the matter. The United Kingdom shows a surprisingly low average weight, assuming it to be as esti- mated. This is almost certainly due to the competition of the railway parcel service with the parcel post. The railway charges are so related to the postal charges that the traffic tends to divide between the two agencies by giving the heavier parcels to the railways and the lighter parcels to the parcel post. The average weight of international parcels dispatched is affected by the fact that the rate is 12 cents a pound. The proposed parcel-post rate of 8 cents a pound would certainly induce a greater number of heavier parcels in the domestic traffic and result in a higher average weight. The incoming parcels add nothing to the significance of the average weights abroad. - 5I orders must be filled at once, and since the consignments are small, the express companies are called upon to handle almost all of this business. The result is a decline in freight traffic in these lines more than proportionate to the decline in business, and an increase in express traffic in direct opposition to the decline in business generally. Of course, if business depression continues the express business must also in time meet reverses. Also the additional express traffic from this cause lies only to a small extent within the II-pound weight limit, with which this study is concerned. It may still be said, therefore, that the small parcel traffic and the freight traffic probably bear a fairly constant relation to each other, and that the divergencies noted are more in the nature of temporary fluctuations about a normal point than the arbi- trary movements of a ratio subject to no regularity. There are no data suitable to check the accuracy of this hypothesis, but, in the dearth of suitable material, it appears sufficiently probable to justify its use in this estimate. The tons of freight originating per I,000 population, the tons of parcels mailed per I,000 population, and the percentage of the freight tonnage to which the weight of parcels II pounds and under is equal are given in the accompanying table for those countries for which the data were complete and comparable for a common year. The figures for freight tonnage are computed from data given in the respective government railway statistics or obtained through corre- spondence from official sources. The parcel tonnage is estimated from data in official reports or in correspondence from official sources. RATIO of PARCEL Ton NAGE To FREIGHT Ton NAGE. Per cent which Tons of freight * ; par- the total originating ººl weight ºar- Country. under mailed g par y per 1,000 per I, Ooo pop- cels is of the population. i.”P freightton- e nage. United Kingdom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . II,038 3.42 .o31% Belgium . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,394 2.33° . O43 France • * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * e º e < * * 3,874 I.96 . O5I Austria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,487 3.3 I . O60 Germany . . . . . tº e º e º e º 'º - e. e. e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,079 I3.62 . I68 United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,792 |. . . . . . . . . . . . º * This is gross tons carried. Consequently it involves duplications of shipments carried over more than one railroad reporting its tonnage. * This is subject to error in the reported tonnage of freight as stated in note I. * Includes parcels over II pounds up to maximum weight of I32 pounds. 52 The ratio for Germany is certainly higher than would be expected for the United States, because of the great development of German parcel-post transportation and, relatively to the United States, the meager development of wholesale freight shipments. Austria and France are open to similar comment. Their freight tonnage is seen to be considerably below that of the United States and they are much more given to small-size shipments than the United States. This would lead to the conclusion that their ratio of parcel tonnage to freight ton- nage would be greater than would be expected for the United States. But the conclusion is halted by the consideration that the conditions in those two countries create a much smaller parcel traffic than would the conditions in the United States. So that the ratio of parcel tonnage to freight may not be far from that to be expected here. A judgment may be made after considering the ratio for the United Kingdom. Belgium can be only of Secondary significance because of the inability to separate the volume Of parcels II pounds and less from the total as reported. This leaves the United Kingdom as the ultimate guide in the present estimate. In that country the true ratio of parcel tonnage to freight is greater than the ratio given. One reason for this is that the given ratio is cal- culated only with the parcel-post tonnage, whereas a considerable addi- tional Small-parcel tonnage is handled by the railways and forward- ing agents on their own account. The amount of this is not reported by the British railways to the Board of Trade and is not otherwise ascertainable. If it be assumed to equal two-thirds of the parcel-post tonnage, the ratio would be raised, from .031 per cent to that for France. This result is not unreasonable. In the first place, the de- scriptive accounts of the railway parcel traffic indicate a large volume. The average weight of the parcel-post parcels is only 2.8 pounds. Therefore this railway traffic must be composed largely of the heavier parcels which do not move by parcel post. That would make the rail- way tonnage much greater in proportion to the number of parcels transported than in the case of the parcel-post packages. A second reason for believing that the ratio of parcel tonnage to freight ton- nage in the United Kingdom should be higher than that given is that the data for freight tonnage is for gross tons carried. In all the other countries it is for met tons originating. The ratio of parcel tonnage to freight tonnage should be greater in proportion to the amount by which the net tonnage is less than II,038. 53 Considering these facts concerning the United Kingdom, the ratios found for France and Austria appear much more reasonable as indices of what might be expected in the United States. It may reasonably be estimated that the parcel traffic of the United States would approxi- mate .os of one per cent of the originating freight traffic. In 1909 that freight tonnage was 881,000,000 tons, which indicates a prob- able parcel business of 440,000 short tons. This should be compared with 375,000 tons, the result of the esti- mate of tonnage based on the estimate of the probable average weight of parcels. The discrepancy of about 17 per cent is probably due to errors in the estimate based on comparative freight tonnage. For, in any case, the ratio between parcel tonnage and freight tonnage is so small that a very slight error in the estimate of this ratio would produce an error in the resulting tonnage of parcels amounting to a considerable per cent. Then also the relation between parcel tonnage and freight tonnage is subject to such indeterminable differences in conditions as between different countries that an estimate of that rela- tion must be liable to considerable error. Finally, it is believed that the error in the tonnage estimate based on freight traffic is more prob- ably on the side of excess, for the average weight of the combined parcel-post and railway parcel traffic in England is surely greater than the estimated probable average weight of parcel-post packages in the United States. This would result from the lower scale of charges for higher weights in England than those usually proposed for parcel- post in the United States. In the light of these considerations, the estimate of tonnage based on freight traffic rather strengthens the probability of the estimate based on the probable average weight of parcels. - 4. Conclusion of Estimate Based on Foreign Earperience and Modifications Required by Differences in Charges From the foregoing estimates based on comparisons with foreign experience, it may be concluded that, assuming the charges in the United States to be exactly equivalent to those abroad, there would be a parcel-post traffic of about 200,000,000 parcels, aggregating about 375,000 tons in weight. * Statistics of Railways, Interstate Commerce Commission, 1909, p. 59. 54 What modification shall be made in these estimates because of the fact that a charge will likely be established for the United States higher than that in the other countries? The charges in European countries have been given in the descriptive account of the foreign parcel-post systems. It was seen that the average charges group themselves around 13 or 14 cents as a representative charge. The range of charges is greatest in Great Britain. Elsewhere the maximum is never equal to twice the minimum charge, except in Germany and Austria, where the charge for parcels under II pounds for the greater of two distance zones is twice that for the lesser; but it is the same for all weights within the same zone. In the United States, assuming the number of parcels at different weights to be about the same as now found in the express traffic,” the average of the rates usually proposed for a parcel-post service would be about 46 cents. The range of charges would greatly exceed that for any of the European countries, varying from 8 cents to 88 cents. The minimum charge proposed for the United States is thus about the same as that abroad. The average charge, however, is greater by the excess of 46 cents Over I3 or 14 cents, and the maximum charge is greater by the excess of 88 cents over 22 cents, the maximum in Great Britain. - Part of this difference in charges is offset by the difference in the pur- chasing power of money. A charge in the United States, to be merely equivalent to that abroad, would have to be a great deal more than the foreign charge. How much more cannot be easily stated. There is no comprehensive and exhaustive comparative statement of wages, prices, and cost of doing business in the United States and European countries which can furnish an exact and indisputable measure of the difference in the purchasing power of money. A cursory examination of the data at hand has led to the judgment that an average charge in the United States equivalent to the average charge of 13 or 14 cents abroad would be about 25 cents. This does not mean that an average charge of 25 cents would cover the cost of the parcel service in the United States. It is open to question whether the charges abroad cover the cost of the service. The 25 cents is the equivalent from the point of view of the patrons of the service. The question thus becomes, How much should the above preliminary estimate of 200,000,000 parcels, or 375,000 tons, be reduced because of the excess in the average charge proportionate * See page 27. * See Appendix II. 55 to that of 46 cents over 25 cents, and because of the relatively much higher maximum charge P Bearing in mind that the condition of a postal monopoly is assumed, it may be a fair assumption that this would reduce the estimate already made by at least one-fourth. That would give a final estimate of about 150,000,000 parcels weighing about 280,000 tons as of the year I909. 5. Estimate Based on Earperience of Erpress Companies of the $ United States - This revised estimate for the United States based on European ex- perience may be checked by another estimate based on the experience of American express companies and the consideration of the probable new traffic a parcel post might develop. In Appendix III is given an estimate of the percentage of the express traffic that is comprised in pieces within the limit of II pounds. The results obtained indicate that about 40.5 per cent of the pieces and about 5.5 per cent of the aggregate weight are comprised in packages within this limit. The total volume of the express traffic for any year is not known, but may be estimated from data ascertained by the Interstate Commerce Commission for three months in the year I909. From these data it appears that about 249,000,000 pieces were carried in the whole year, and that these weighed in the aggregate about 4,088,OOO tons." On the basis of the preceding percentages the num- ber of pieces weighing II pounds and less for the year 1909 was IOO,949,050 and their aggregate weight was about 449,680,000 pounds. The average weight per piece was then 4.4545-H pounds. The con- venience of a round number and the fact that these are but estimates will justify the adoption of IOI,OOO,OOO as the number of pieces of express matter in IOO9 that were of II pounds or less in weight. The corresponding aggregate weight would be about 449,900,000 pounds, or nearly 225,000 tons. - * The data are found on pages 18, 19, and 29 of the First Annual Report of the Interstate Commerce Commission on the Statistics of Express Companies. The revenue from tonnage carried by the II companies in the table on page 19 is 94.91 per cent of the gross receipts from operation for these companies. Ap- plying that percentage to the gross receipts from operation for all companies as given on page 29, gives $125,847,240. I9 as an estimate of the tonnage revenue received by all companies for the fiscal year ended June 30, 1909. The tonnage revenue received by these same companies and the Long Island Company, as given on page 18 for the months of April, August, and December, 1909, is 28.49 per cent of this estimate of the tonnage revenue for the year. By applying this percentage to the ascertained data on the volume of traffic for these companies for these three months, the estimates in the text are found. 56 To complete this estimate of the probable parcel-post traffic, some judgment should be reached as to the new traffic, additional to the present express traffic in 11-pound parcels, which a parcel post would doubtless develop. This cannot be estimated very satisfactorily, but some approximation can be made with which to check preceding esti- mates. First, a number of factors which will affect the volume of that new traffic should be noted. So far as concerns the parcel traffic solely on rural delivery routes— to which many of the proposals before Congress are limited—this will not affect the railways, since it would be carried entirely by the rural delivery wagons. - In the case of the direct marketing of garden and dairy products by means of parcel post, the traffic would require the use of railway transportation to towns within the farmers' selling territory. Some estimate, therefore, is desirable of the probable volume of this business. It is probably the most exploited argument for a parcel post. But it is questionable whether the expectations of many persons in this matter can possibly be realized. In the first place, this traffic must be relatively a local, short-haul business. Freshness and good condition are among the principal objects of direct purchase by consumers from the farmer. Within a limited radius such supplies could certainly be secured in better condition than the average article on sale in the retail markets. But beyond that radius, these qualities would be jeopardized with the increased time required for long distances, with the less favorable con- ditions afforded by the parcel service for preserving these qualities as compared with the refrigeration possible with wholesale shipments, and with the rougher usage to which small parcels are subject in rapid handling. Besides, the local producer must always have an advantage in respect to adaptability to the demand and to the command of that personal confidence on which such small-scale business must rest. In the next place, it is an open question how far the farmer would find direct, Small sales to consumers a more profitable method of mar- keting products than the indirect but more wholesale method by way of intermediate dealers. Much emphasis has been laid upon the difference between the price the farmer gets and the price the consumer pays. It is urged that direct sales, if a suitable channel for carriage between farmer and consumer is provided, will enable both to gain through the elimination of this cost of intermediate handling. There is certainly merit in this contention. And surely, if the post-office will carry the 57 goods in the mails, a great many consumers and producers will seek this direct connection. But the picture is usually overdrawn. There are some inexorable limitations on the volume of such business. This channel would be available only for the products of small farming and of small farms. Only such articles as could be sold profitably in quan- tities small enough to come within the weight limit could seek this means of sale. Only a part of the products of any but the Smaller farms could find a demand sufficient to absorb it within the territory accessible by this means. In the case of large producers, the greater part of the product would have to seek other channels and markets. Then there is the greater expense of handling, measuring out small orders, separate wrapping or special packing, and the like, and the greater inconvenience which would attend the disposal of a large product in small shipments. The producer, as such, usually seeks to avoid the trouble and expense of retailing his product by turning it Over in wholesale lots to middlemen, who make the distribution of goods their business. Again, many consumers will insist on inspection before buying, especially in the case of such perishable goods as are here in question. To satisfy this demand, the retail dealers with dis- played stocks will require a great part of the product to pass through established avenues of distribution. Still further, individual mail-order customers of such producers may be expected to prove more fickle in their demand than the regular wholesale buyers for distributing houses. Only a large patronage of this sort could reduce the variations in a pro- ducer's total demand to an equality with the variations in wholesale demand. But, as shown, such a large patronage would be rarely pos- sible. The producer would thus experience a larger per cent of loss from unsold products than if he depended on wholesale methods of distribution. The argument that a parcel-post would open a market for much product that now goes to waste for lack of a demand at pay- ing prices does not meet this point. That argument touches the excess of supply in general Over the demand that can be reached by producers. The point here made touches a deficiency in demand upon the indi- vidual producers due to arbitrary changes in his limited patronage. Again, purchase of Such supplies direct from the producer assumes both foresight and ready money on the part of the consumer that is not possessed by the majority of people whose poor domestic manage- ment or low income restricts them to a hand-to-mouth mode of buying. These must have convenient retailers with ready stocks on hand. All this assumes that garden and dairy products generally will be mailable. But there are practical difficulties in the way of carrying some of these products through the mail in any form of wrapping or packing that would be commercially feasible for the producer. All countries limit at least the form in which such products may be mailed, and many countries exclude practically all of them entirely. It is doubtful if the postal traditions of the United States would admit such products largely, except on the rural routes, which are not here in question. . . . . . Finally, would the postal rates on parcels be low enough to permit such products to move directly in competition with the indirect method of distribution ? When suitably packed for transportation by the par- cel post, the total weight would, at the proposed rate of 8 cents a pound, incur a charge that would raise the cost to the consumer far above the price at which he could buy the goods in the retail markets. The transportation cost entering into the price at retail stores is low because the goods are assembled in country towns and shipped in large consignments which carry a very much lower charge per unit of the article. But a charge of 8 cents a pound would, even when the con- Sumer pays a lower price to the producer, raise the consumers’ cost per dozen of eggs, or per head of cabbage, or per bunch of radishes, or per pound of chicken, or what not, to a prohibitive amount. The only consumers who could afford to have themselves supplied through the parcel post would be those who were able to pay an unusual price for the sake of fresh products. These would create a relatively insig- nificant traffic. Summarizing these considerations from the side both of producer and consumer, it is seen that many powerful economic influences draw the producer away from the direct retail method of disposing of his product toward the existing indirect wholesale method, and that other influ- ences greatly restrict the number of consumers who would seek sup- plies directly from the producer. Farmers would have to depend mainly, and would usually prefer to depend exclusively, on the use of intermediate agencies of distribution. Sale by way of the parcel post would develop only as a side line, except possibly in the case of occa- sional farmers, who would cater to a high-class trade and develop a sufficient demand to give their business stability. It is not meant in the above discussion to deny that there will be new traffic from this source. There certainly will be traffic beyond what is now carried by the express 59 companies in small parcels. But the traffic from this source will cer- tainly fall far below the expectation of most of those who have advo- cated a parcel post. * . The second possible source of additional parcel traffic is the more direct purchase by residents of rural districts and Small towns, of all kinds of merchandise. Here arises the issue between the mail-order house and the country merchant. This study is not con- cerned with this issue per se, but it is concerned with the question on which this issue turns. That is, to what extent will the non-urban population buy from urban merchants merchandise which will seek transportation by parcel post? It is the opponents of the parcel-post proposals who now offer estimates that are certainly as much over- drawn as are those relating to the farmers' market. Without any doubt the delivery service of the parcel post would put many more people in communication with the large trading centers and stimulate the direct sale from city merchants to non-urban consumers, providing the parcel rates are not so high as to offset the cheaper price which the large city merchant can usually quote. All this has been fully presented by those who fear for the future of the country merchant. But it is open to serious doubt whether the volume of this business will approach the flood which these persons predict. Some factors which will determine that volume should be well considered. : - From the point of view of the merchant, the matter of clerical ex- pense—opening the letter, putting the order through the numerous steps in its progress through the office, preparing the goods for ship- ment, filing the records of the transaction—becomes so large, relative to the amount of the sale, in the case of goods of small value, that mail- order dealers discourage business in any but goods of higher values. It was testified at the hearing of the House Committee on Post Offices and Post Roads that the Albaugh-Dover Company and Montgomery Ward & Company were cutting out many lines of goods of low value and relatively high cost of handling." - If the transportation charges are paid by the merchant, this adds another consideration tending to restrict his lines of goods to articles of relatively high value. This consideration is revealed in the fact that these charges are usually not paid by the mail-order dealers, unless the value of the order exceeds a specified sum, such as five dollars. * Hearings before Committee on Post Offices and Post Roads, April 25, 1910, p. 4I. 6O From the side of the consumer, also, there are factors which will restrict his purchase by parcel post. Usually the customer pays the transportation charges. The rates proposed in almost all bills for a universal parcel post—averaging about 46 cents per parcel—are such as to make the total cost to the purchaser too high, notwithstanding cheaper prices, to induce him to purchase by parcel post anything but articles of relatively high value and low weight. This is so powerful a check on mail-order purchases that the regular mail-order houses en- courage customers to assemble a number of items in one order, or unite with other purchasers so as to make a combined order, that can be sent by freight. The total cost to the purchaser is thus materially reduced, so that he is better satisfied and more likely to order again. In all such cases where the mail-order business moves by freight instead of ex- press, if the parcel-post rates are sufficiently below the express charges to eliminate the above disadvantage upon express as compared with the freight transportation, then there will be an addition to the volume of parcels through purchases by parcel post. But it is certain that with any rates likely to be established this will not take place to anywhere near the extent frequently asserted. - Another check on consumers' purchases by parcel post is the desire of the customer to inspect goods before buying and his pleasure in the Sociability of at least Occasional shopping, especially in the non-urban sections now under consideration. These aspects of demand can be satisfied only by the retailer with a stock of goods. In obedience to these motives the great majority of consumers will buy of retail dealers, either local or in accessible trading centers, almost all articles concern- ing which there is room for doubt as to their acceptability. Mail-order purchases will be limited, as now, largely to articles of standard type and qualities that can be easily identified by the description in a cata- logue. This leads to the consideration of another restraint upon purchases by parcel post. The articles that can become standardized are only those which are used in large quantities—that is, which are in general use. Many of these goods are bulky or heavy, like furniture, last for Some time, and could not be transported by parcel post. Many more are Small and light, such as Soap and staple groceries, but are in such daily use that they can be bought to advantage by mail order only when purchased in quantities that last for Some time. But, in that case, the weight of the total order is likely to take it out of the parcel class and make shipment by freight preferable. Then, further, only those per- 6I sons who have the necessary foresight and ready money can purchase in such quantities, regardless of whether transportation is by parcel post or other agencies. Many farmers are compelled to trade at local retailers, because they need credit, often swapping their produce for supplies. These and other considerations that might develop on fur- ther analysis show that the actual volume of such purchases by parcel post would be much below that usually conceived as possible. A very large parcel traffic centers in the larger cities from which department and other large stores supply a wide suburban territory. But abundant testimony in the hearings before the Committee of Con- gress shows that this business is handled either by the stores' own delivery systems, or by private local express companies who do the work on contract more cheaply than the post-office could afford to do it. This is done, too, without the use of the railway to any important degree. Wagons, automobiles, and trolley lines are usually employed for this service, even extending as far as forty or fifty miles in some cases." The volume of this business does not therefore concern this study. - These considerations on the new parcel business to be developed by a parcel post do not lead to any definite estimate. An important amount of new business will doubtless develop because of the lower postal rates in some cases, because of the more perfect delivery service in many cases, and because of the entirely new channels permitting the direct transit of small retail parcels to the consumers. But, as just shown, a number of economic influences will be present to limit this business on many sides. However, the concrete, specific data are not available to guide the judgment to any definite and defensible estimate of the probable volume within those limits. Yet a few facts may be noted that will assist the judgment in fixing upon some conclusion in the matter. From data in the census of 1910, it appears that about 45,000,000° people at the very least, or nearly * Descriptions are found in hearings before the Committee on Post Offices and Post Roads, April, 1910, pp. 236-247. *The census of IQIO reports that 53.7 per cent of the population, or about 49,400,000 people, were living in the “country” or in towns of 2500 or less. Probably most of the inhabitants of these small towns are reached by express companies, but only a small part would have collect and delivery service. In any case, the number of people enjoying that service cannot be large. In all towns having a population from 2500 to 5000 in 1910, there were only 4,105,656 inhabitants. From that fact it may reasonably be judged that, if the population in towns of 2500 and less be taken from the reported rural population, there would be about 45,000,000 people without express service at all, and that a still larger number were without a collect and delivery service. 62 10,000,000 households, live out of reach of the collect and delivery. service of the express companies. A parcel post would bring most of these people into more direct commercial communication with the rest of the population. Bearing in mind that the part of the population served by the express companies created in 1909 an express traffic in parcels under II pounds amounting to only about One parcel per capita, and recalling the general considerations already noted as bearing On the probable new parcel traffic, it would seem probable that not more than 20,000,000 parcels would be added to the traffic from the country districts because of the facilities of the parcel post. New traffic created by a parcel post in the territory now served by express companies may result from either of two causes. One would be the lower charges as compared with present express charges. The other would be the greater confidence and, perhaps to some extent, a more kindly feeling displayed by many people toward a government agency than toward a private agency. This would not affect the com- mercial element in the parcel traffic, but would have an influence on the volume of personal exchanges of parcels. - s With respect to the former, the additional parcel traffic would be either entirely new business, or transfers of merchandise from the in- direct channels of distribution by freight and the heavier express transportation and middlemen to direct distribution in retail quantities from producers or central merchants to consumers. Further, a com- parison of the express charges for different weights of packages and different distances with the charges usually proposed for a parcel post shows that the parcel post would reduce the charges only on the pack- ages of the lower weights or those going the longer distances." There- fore, whatever additional traffic a parcel post might develop would be limited to such low weight or long-distance business as could emerge in the form of entirely new traffic or transfers from freight and heavier express transportation. Into this would fall such mail-order traffic as might be developed in the urban territory under considera- tion, because this is relatively a long-distance rather than a local busi- ness. Into it would fall also the increase in the personal element of the parcel traffic, because this is relatively a traffic in parcels of low weight rather than high. Having thus defined the general limits within which new traffic may * For table showing this comparison of charges see Appendix V. S2): J 6 arise in response to lower charges, we may endeavor to estimate the volume of the additional business that would develop under this stimu- lus. Guidance to this estimate may be found by first noting the volume of express traffic that would find the parcel-post charges lower than express charges. This will be the basis on which the expansion of traffic in response to lower charges must take place. Then, by noting. the extent to which the parcel-post charges are lower, the estimate can be made of the amount which the traffic will probably expand on this basis. With respect to the first matter, a comparison of charges and a consideration of the relative number of express packages of different weights within II pounds and the relative number of Such packages that move on different rates leads to the following judgment: Of the packages under II pounds carried by express companies in 1909, about 68,000,000 would find the charges lower by parcel post. With respect to the second matter in point, namely, the degree of advantage that the parcel-post charges, as compared with express charges, would offer for the potential but as yet undeveloped traffic in territory served by express companies, the situation may be briefly stated as follows:* For the shortest distances, the advantages in favor of the parcel-post rate would be limited to parcels under three pounds and would vary from 17 cents on a one-pound package to one cent on a three-pound package. As the express charge for parcels of each weight increases with distance, the parcel post would have an advantage in the case of more and more of the heavier weights. When the distance reaches about 600 miles or over, the parcel-post charges would have an advan- tage in all cases. At about 600 miles, the advantage would vary from I7 cents on one-pound parcels to 2 cents on II-pound parcels. Between New York and San Francisco the advantage would vary from 22 cents On a one-pound parcel to 92 cents on an II-pound parcel. The ques- tion may now be stated, How much new business, on the basis of the 68,000,000 parcels already carried that would find parcel-post charges lower than the present express charges, would be developed in the territory now served by express companies because the parcel-post charges would be lower to the extent here noted 2 It is probable that hardly more than 40,000,000 pieces would be added to the parcels traffic from the above sources because of the amount of this advantage. On the other hand, some of the present express business would not * This comparison is set forth more fully in Appendix V. * See table of comparative charges in Appendix V. 64 go by a parcel post because its rates would be higher. Under the assumed condition of a postal monopoly, the only alternative would be freight transportation. If that were feasible, this business would move in that way. Otherwise it would cease to move at all. The excess of the parcel-post rates would vary, in the case of short distances, from 7 cents on a four-pound package to 58 cents on an II-pound package. As the distance increased, this disadvantage would decrease, until, as just shown, it would disappear altogether for distances beyond 600 miles. The part of the express traffic under II pounds in 1909 that would come into consideration here would amount to about 33,000,000 parcels. This traffic is limited to shorter distances and heavier weights, which would be less influenced by a given difference in charges than the traffic in lower weights and longer distances. But probably not less than IO,OOO,OOO parcels would seek other means of transportation or, in Some cases, would cease to move at all. The effect of the more favorable attitude of the average man toward governmental agencies than toward private agencies can only be guessed. It may be assumed that it would add 5,000,000 parcels to the traffic. . - - These cumulative calculations in the estimate of the new business created by a parcel post as of the year 1909 may be summarized as follows: - New traffic originating from the increased facilities given to rural territory not now reached by the collect and delivery service of the express companies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20,000,000 parcels. New traffic originating in the urban territory now served by express companies: a. On account of lower rates. . . . . . . ... . . . . . . 40,000,000 b. On account of more favorable attitude of public toward governmental agencies. . . . 5,000,000 Gross addition from urban territory. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45,000,000 parcels. Total new traffic created by a parcel post. . . . . . . . . . . 65,000,000 parcels. Express traffic, II pounds and less, in 1909. . . . IOI,000,000 Less traffic not transferred to parcel post on account of higher charges. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . IO,OOO,OOO Net express traffic transferred to parcel post. . . . . . . . 9I,000,000 parcels. Total traffic to be carried by parcel post. . . . . . . . . I56,000,000 parcels. The conclusion of this estimate of the probable parcel-post traffic based on the express traffic in parcels under II pounds and the prob- able new traffic created by a parcel post may be stated thus: The total volume, as of the year 1909, would be, in case of a postal monopoly, 65 about 156,000,000 parcels, weighing on an average about 3.75 pounds and aggregating about 585,000,000 pounds, or about 292,500 tons. Of this about 91,000,000 parcels, weighing 182,500 tons, would be traffic taken over from the express companies and about 65,000,000 parcels, weighing about I Io,050 tons, would be new traffic developed by the parcel post.* - The estimate based upon foreign experience was that there would be about 150,000,000 parcels as of 1909. The rather surprising agree- ment of these two independent estimates strengthens the probability of the approximate accuracy of the conclusion to be drawn from them. Since the estimate based on the experience of express companies in the United States is the more directly related to the conditions pre- vailing here, it is entitled to more respect than the other and will be accepted as the basis of further calculations. This estimate is based upon data for. I908 and 1909. The express traffic has increased greatly in the last two years, however. From the reports of the Inter- * This apportionment of the aggregate weight between the traffic taken over from express companies and that created by a parcel post was arrived at from the following considerations: The Io,000,000 parcels that were estimated as not going with the other express traffic over into the parcel-post traffic will have an average weight well above the average for the whole express traffic under II pounds. This follows from the fact, disclosed by a comparison of express charges with the proposed charges by parcel post, that the express packages that would find the parcel-post charges most restrictive are those of the highest weights. The average weight of these Io,000,000 pieces would probably not be less than about 8.5 pounds. Their aggregate weight would then be 85,000,000 pounds, or 42,500 tons. he aggregate weight of the IOI,000,000 pieces of express matter under II pounds was estimated at about 449,900,000 pounds, or nearly 225,000 tons. (See page 55.) That leaves 364,900,000 pounds, or nearly 182,500 tons as the aggre- gate weight of the 91,000,000 pieces of express matter that would be transferred to the parcel post. This is an average weight of about 4 pounds. The average weight of parcel-post pieces has been placed at 3.75 pounds. The aggregate weight of the estimated number of I56,000,000 parcels would then be 585,000,000 pounds, or 292,500 tons. Subtracting from this the weight of the 9I,000,000 pieces of express traffic transferred to the parcel post, leaves 220, IOO,- O00 pounds, or IIo,050 tons, as the weight of the 65,000,000 parcels comprising the ºw traffic created by a parcel post. This is an average weight of 3.38+ poundS. The comparative average weight of this new traffic and the average weight of the traffic taken over from the express companies is in accordance with what should be expected. The new traffic to and from the territory not now served by express companies, it has been shown (see page 58), must be chiefly in parcels of higher value and lower weight in order to move on the assumed parcel-post charges in competition with local retailers. The new traffic in urban territory would be limited to cases where the parcel post offers lower charges than the present express charges. That condition would be found largely for packages only in the lower weights. In both cases, therefore, the new traffic would be in pieces of lower weights than those taken over from the express companies. 5—R 66 state. Commerce Commission, it appears that the gross receipts from operation for all companies increased IO per cent in 1910 Over 1909 and 15 per cent in 191 I over 1909. As the increase in 191 I is con- sidered to have been retarded by temporary local influences, it may be safer to assume that 17 or 18 per cent more nearly represents the nor- mal increase in business over that in IQ09. Assuming that to be true, the final conclusion is that the parcel-post traffic under monopoly, and assuming the charges to be at 8 cents a pound, would amount at the present time to about 183,000,000 parcels, weighing about 343, I25 tons. This is the answer to the first question of the inquiry, namely, What will be the probable volume of the parcel traffic in case of a postal monopoly P - II. IN CASE OF COMPETITION 1. Estimate of Erpress Traffic that would find Parcel-Post Charges Lower than Earpress Charges & In case the parcel post is not given a monopoly, but is operated in competition with private express companies, how will the total traffic in parcels of II pounds and under be divided between the two carrying agencies? An answer to this question must depend, even more than the answer to the first question, upon certain indeterminable factors. One of the chief of these is the changes, if any, which express com- panies may be influenced to make in their rates or service to meet the competition of the parcel post. In view of the difficulties of making any such forecast, it will be more satisfactory to begin the estimate on the assumption that express charges will remain as they are. This will provide a basis on which a more refined estimate may be made according to judgment on the effect of probable changes in express charges. In So far as the package traffic would choose the agency imposing the lower charges, a comparison of the relative number of cases in which the parcel-post charge and the express charge, respectively, would be the cheaper would disclose the approximate division of the business between the express companies and the parcel post. Such a comparison has been made for each class of express traffic that would have the alternatives of shipment by either parcel post or express. Far the most important of the classes of traffic here in question is * The express traffic comprises several classes, upon which different rates are charged. Only part of these different classes of traffic would be subject to competition from a parcel post. The various classes may be described under “merchandise,” “general special,” and “section matter.” Merchandise is the 67 the merchandise class. A comparison of the merchandise charges by express with the parcel-post charges usually proposed, namely, 8 cents a pound, indicates that, of the merchandise traffic within the limit of II pounds in weight, about 74 per cent of the pieces and 54 per cent of the aggregate weight would find the parcel-post charges lower than present express charges." t The estimates already obtained of the volume of the express traffic under II pounds pertain to the total for all classes of traffic. AC- cordingly, it will be necessary to consider the part of that total that consists of the merchandise class before the foregoing percentage esti- mates can be transformed into estimates of the absolute volume of the merchandise class of business that would find the parcel-post charges lower than express charges. This proportion has been esti- mated as about 83 per cent of all pieces of all classes.” The aggregate number of pieces of all classes has been already estimated as about IOI,000,000 in 1909. Eighty-three per cent of that number gives 83,830,000 as a probable number of pieces of the merchandise class under II pounds in 1909. The average weight of these packages may be stated as about 4.7 pounds.” Their aggregate weight would then be about 394,000,000 pounds. Applying to these quantities the estimates of the percentage of the merchandise class of traffic that would find the parcel-post charges lower than express charges, namely, 74 per cent of the pieces and 54 per cent of the weight, the following result is reached : About 62,OOO,OOO pieces of merchandise traffic in 1909, aggregating about 212,750,000 pounds, would find the parcel-post charges, at the rate of 8 cents a pound, lower than the present express charges for the same pieces. Thus far the calculations have concerned only the first-mentioned class of express traffic in question—that is, merchandise traffic. A general class of goods. It includes all the ordinary forms of merchandise not included in any of the special classes. General special includes most kinds of perishable goods, such as fruit, vegetables, meat, fish, oysters, butter, eggs, and the like. Section matter is another group of special traffic. Those “sections” which would come into competition with the parcel post are sections A, D, and E. Section A matter comprises all forms of advertising matter distributed gratuitously, including metal and other advertising signs, as well as printed advertising. Section D matter consists of printed matter of all sorts, including books and catalogues, and seeds, bulbs, and roots, limited to packages with a value not over $10.00. Section E matter consists of packages of merchandise or samples thereof having a value of not over $10.00. * The calculation by which these percentages were obtained is too complicated to reproduce here. It will be found in Appendix V. * See Appendix V, page I29. - * For basis of this estimate, see Appendix V, page I30. 68 second class is that of general specials. It is certain that the volume of this class under II pounds is very small." Of this small amount probably none would be transferred to a parcel post. This class of traffic may therefore be ignored in this estimate of the volume of busi- ness under competition.” - There, remain the classes of section matter. In the case of section A, it may be stated at once that the parcel-post rates herein assumed would not attract any appreciable amount of this class of traffic in addition to what is now carried as fourth-class mail.” Section D * This class was segregated for intrastate business in Minnesota. While it comprised 28. I per cent of the pieces and 42 per cent of the weight of all busi- ness, it comprised only 2.3 per cent of the pieces and 4.2 per cent of the weight of traffic under II pounds. The average weight of general special pieces was 65.3 pounds, as compared with an average of 35.2 pounds for all other traffic. The average weight of general special pieces under II pounds was 9.18 pounds, as compared with 4.34 pounds for the remaining traffic under II pounds. The average weight of general Specials carried by the Adams Company on the one day already described was 54.75 pounds as against 34.66 pounds for all classes. For the United States Company it was 64.59 pounds as against 25.36 pounds for all classes. It thus appears that the general special traffic is confined chiefly #. higher weights, and only a small percentage would fall under the 11-pound 1Init. - . * It may be that none of such perishable goods will be admitted to the parcel post at all. Even if it were admitted, not much, if any, would be transferred from express to parcel post for these reasons: The packages are of the higher weights; the hauls are of the shorter distances, so that the base rates are of the lower amounts. General special parcels thus fall almost wholly within the class of heavier parcels taking lower charges. This is the class where the express charge is less than the parcel-post charge. This is all the more probable when it is considered that express rates on general specials are lower than on mer- chandise. Considering the relative crudity of our estimates at best, the very small amount of general Special goods now carried by express that would be taken over by parcel post may be disregarded. - * This matter is not subject to graduated charges, but takes straight pound rates, except that the minimum charge is 35 cents. A comparison of express and parcel-post charges discloses that until the express rate per hundred pounds reaches $8.00 the express charge would be less than the parcel-post charge at the rate of 8 cents per pound, except for packages weighing less than 4 pounds 6 ounces. For these the minimum charge of 35 cents is equivalent to more than the postal rate of 8 cents a pound. That is to say, the parcel-post charge would be lower than the express charge for all section A matter weighing less than 4 pounds 6 ounces, and lower for all weights where the express charge is based on rates above $8.00 a hundred. When it is considered that nearly all of the business moves on rates less than $8.00, it will appear that the parcel post and the express companies would divide the traffic in section. A matter at practically the four-pound point. But a very large part of section A matter is now admissible as third-class mail up to four pounds at the same rate as that assumed for a parcel post. The parcel post, therefore, would not alter the present competitive position of the mails and the express companies in regard to that part of section A matter that is coincidentally classifiable as third-class mail. The only probable transfer of section A matter from express to parcel post would be from that part of section A traffic below 4 pounds 6 ounces which is not now admissible as third-class mail. This would be a very negligible amount, as will appear from the very small proportion of the whole traffic com- prised within the entire section A classification. In none of the analyses of express traffic consulted for this study did it amount to as much as I per cent, matter is composed almost wholly of what is classed as third-class mail and is carried at the same rates as third-class mail, namely, one cent for each two ounces, except that there is a minimum charge of IO cents, and packages weighing 50 ounces or more are charged 2 cents less than the corresponding postal charge. Also a limit of $10.OO is placed upon the value. Since the parcel-post rate proposed is the same as the present third-class rate, the existing division of business falling under section D classification or third-class mail would not be disturbed. - Section E matter is of much more importance. This class of traffic falls within the existing fourth-class mail, except that a limit is fixed on the value by the express companies at $10.00 per package. It is carried at the same rate as fourth-class mail—i. e., one cent an ounce for all distances—but with a minimum charge of 15 cents. The pro- posed parcel-post rates would be only half as great as the present express rate on this class of traffic. In that situation it is possible that all of this business subject to competition would be taken over by the parcel post. This would mean the entire volume of section E traffic, because probably all of it lies within the limit of II pounds. This must be so, because as the weight increases it becomes cheaper to ship these goods under the regular graduated charges instead of the special rates for section E matter. And this always occurs before II pounds is reached, even for the longer distances. This view is supported also by the low average weight of section E matter." The volume of sec- tion E traffic may be estimated as about 6 per cent of the total traffic under II pounds” and the average weight may be placed at about 1.5 pounds.” Accordingly, there would be about 6,000,000 pieces weighing about 9,000,000 pounds in 1909. These conclusions as to the amount of present express traffic under II pounds in weight that would find the charges by parcel post less than by express may be restated briefly as follows: I. The express traffic subject to competition from a parcel post falls under these classes, namely, merchandise, general special, and sections A, D, and E. - * For the Minnesota traffic of Wells Fargo and Company it was 1.61 pounds. For the United States Company it was 1.31 pounds. For one day's business of the Adams Company it was I.55 pounds. For the six days' business it was 1.2 pounds. * For the United States Company for one day it was 7.98 per cent. For the Adams Company's business for one day it was 5.55 per cent. For that company’s business for six days it was 6.06 per cent of the total merchandise, and sections D and E. * See note I. 70 2. Of the merchandise traffic under II pounds, it was estimated that about 62,000,000 pieces in 1909, weighing about 212,750,000 pounds, would find the parcel-post charges of 8 cents a pound less than the present express charges. 3. It is estimated that the amount of general special traffic that would find parcel-post charges lower than express is negligible. 4. It is believed that section A and section D matter would each divide between parcel post and express in about the same manner as at present between the express and fourth-class mail. 5. It appears that section E matter would all find the parcel-post charges less than express charges, and it is estimated that the volume of this class of traffic would amount to about 6,000,000 parcels, weigh- ing about 9,000,000 pounds. These estimates may be summarized in the following statement of the number and aggregate weight of express parcels that would find the parcel-post charges lower than present express charges. Number of parcels. Weight (pounds). Merchandise. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62,000,000 2I2,750,000 Section E matter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6, OOO,OOO 9, OOO,OOO General special . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Negligible . . . . . . Negligible. Section A matter. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . e • * * * * * * * * Same as now . . . . Same as now. Section D matter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Samue as now . . . . Same as now. All classes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68,000,ooo 22 I,750, OOO That is, on the basis of the 1909 statistics, the volume of express busi- ness under II pounds in weight that would find the parcel-post charges lower than express charges amounts to some 68,000,000 parcels, weigh- ing about 221,750,000 pounds. 2. Estimate of Express Traffic that a Parcel Post would Divert and of New Traffic that a Parcel Post would Develop under Competition At this point and on the above conclusions as a basis, any additions or subtractions can be made to account for probable differences in charges from those assumed or differences in other considerations than charges affecting the choice between express and parcel post. Such a discussion would be much more speculative than that already presented. Therefore, it will not be developed in detail. One fact to note in this connection is that, while the parcel post contemplates a delivery service, it does not, judging from the usual practice elsewhere, contemplate a collection Service from the house or business establishment. Many 71 shippers would consequently choose the express service in preference to the parcel post, because the cost or inconvenience of delivering their parcels at the post-office more than offsets the difference in charges in favor of parcel post. This is at the present time an important con- sideration in turning business from the mails to the express companies under sections D and E, for the charges are essentially the same as the postal charges on corresponding classes of mail. A second consider- ation is whether the government will insure parcels or not. If not, s then the express service will be by so much more attractive than the parcel post. But since the parcel-post service elsewhere usually pro- vides such insurance, it may be assumed that insurance would be pro- vided for parcels in the United States. A third consideration to note is that the express companies are much more flexible with respect to meeting competition than a government parcel post could possibly be. In so far as the express companies may wish to retain any of the busi- ness threatened on account of lower charges by parcel post, it would be in large measure in their power to make the necessary adjustments. It is pure guess work for any one to attempt to predict the exact out- come of such potential competition. But it is believed the above esti- mates should be reduced in recognition of these two facts just stated. However Small the parcel post's share of the present express business would prove to be in case of competition, it is believed its maximum possibility will not exceed 40,000,000 parcels out of the 68,000,000 that, in 1909, bore charges by express higher than would be imposed under the assumed parcel-post rates. The average weight of these 40,000,000 parcels may be estimated at about 2.25 pounds." Their aggregate weight would then be about 90,000,000 pounds. To complete the estimate of the parcel traffic under competition, there must be added to the foregoing business taken from the express companies the amount of the new business which the parcel-post would Secure. The new business, in case of a postal monopoly, has been esti- mated on the basis of 1909 as about 65,000,000 parcels. But if express companies meet the competition of the parcel post, the new traffic * The average weight of the 68,000,000 pieces of express that would find parcel- post charges lower appears to be only about 3.25 pounds. (See preceding page.) The portion of these that a parcel post would draw away from express companies would be that for which the difference between express and parcel-post charges would be greatest. This would be chiefly true of the lighter packages. The average weight of those pieces that would be transferred to a parcel post would then necessarily be appreciably less than 3.25 pounds. It may be assumed that it would be about 2.25 pounds. 72 created will be divided between the two agencies; so that the volume which the parcel post would acquire in case of competition would not be so great as in case of a monopoly. It was estimated, in the case of a postal monopoly, that about 20,000,000 parcels of the new business would come from territory not served by express companies. This, it may be assumed, would not be shared with the express companies in case of competition. The only new business that would be shared would be that arising where the express companies now operate. This was estimated for 1909 as about 45,000,000 parcels. Of the new traffic arising where the express companies operate, that is, in urban territory, the parcel post may be assumed to secure under competition about 25,000,000 parcels out of the 45,000,000 comprising the gross new traffic, estimated as of 1909, likely to be created by a parcel post under a postal monopoly. This, with the 20,000,000 parcels secured in terri- tory where the express companies do not operate, gives 45,000,000 parcels as the probable new business secured by a parcel post under competition. The average weight per piece of this new traffic may be estimated as about 3.5 pounds for that within rural territory, and about 2.25 pounds for that originating in urban territory." The aggregate weight would then be about 70,000,000 pounds for the former and 56,250,000 pounds for the latter. The aggregate weight of all three elements of the parcel-post traffic under competition, estimated as of the year 1909, would then be the Sum of the 90,000,000 pounds taken from express companies, the 7O,OOO,OOO pounds developed new in rural territory, and the 56,260,000 pounds developed in urban territory. The total amounts to 216,250,000 pounds, or 108,125 tons. This indicates an average weight per pack- age for the whole parcel-post traffic under competition of slightly over 2.5 pounds. Compared with the estimated average weight in case of a * The weight of this new traffic may be estimated thus: The traffic between rural territory and the rest of the country would have an average weight somewhat less than the average for the whole country under a monopoly, be- cause the traffic with rural sections would tend to be in lighter parcels of higher value than would prevail for the country as a whole. The average weight for the whole traffic in case of a monopoly was estimated at about 3.75 pounds. The average weight for the 20,000 OOO pieces in rural territory may then be estimated at about 3.5 pounds. The new traffic in urban territory that would be secured by a parcel post in competition with express companies would, like the traffic taken over from express companies, consist preponderantly of lighter pieces. The average weight would probably be about the same as that of the pieces taken over from the express companies, namely, 2.25 pounds. 73 monopoly, namely, 3.75 pounds, this seems quite probable in view of the comparative charges by express and parcel post for parcels of different weights. The estimates, all as of 1909, of the several elements of the parcel traffic under competition may be assembled in the following recapitu- lation: Traffic taken from the 68,000,000 parcels, carried by express companies, that would find the parcel- post charges lower than express charges. . . . . . . . 40,000,000 parcels New traffic created by a parcel post under compe- tition : a. Developed in rural territory, not over. . . . . . . . 2O,OOO,OOO b. The parcel post's share of new traffic devel- oped in territory now served by express com- panies, not over. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25,000,000 Total new traffic under competition, not over. . . . . . . . . . 45,000,000 parcels Total parcel-post traffic under competition. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85,000,000 parcels The conclusion may now be stated that, in case of competition be- tween express companies and a parcel post carrying packages on rates of 8 cents a pound, the parcel-post traffic would probably amount to about 85,000,000 pieces, as of the year 1909, aggregating about 216,- 250,000 pounds, or IO8, 125 tons. Assuming, as in the case of mo- nopoly, that the business should be increased 17 or 18 per cent from I909 to IQII, the volume of parcel post traffic, as of 191 I, in case of competition with express companies, would probably be nearly IOO,- OOO,000 pieces, weighing 127,000 tons. 74 ESTIMATES OF THE PROBABLE AVERAGE HAUL AND THE TON-MILEAGE OF PARCEL-POST TRAFFIC 1. ESTIMATE OF THE PROBABLE AVERAGE HAUL It will be of interest to reduce the estimates of the probable volume of the parcel-post traffic in the case both of a monopoly and of compe- tition to terms of ton-miles. For this an estimate must first be made of the probable average haul in each case. There are two guides to an estimate of the probable average haul of parcels in the parcel post. One is the average haul of fourth- class mail. The other is the probable average haul of express matter. I. Consideration of the Average Haul of Fourth-Class Mail The average haul of the different classes of mail matter was in- vestigated at the time of the special weighing of the mails in 1907. It was then found that the average haul of fourth-class matter was approximately 687 miles." But this is far above the probable haul of parcels by parcel post, because the haul of fourth-class mail is peculiarly affected by the present competition of express companies. A comparison of the graduated express charges” on packages up to 4 pounds—which is the limit of weight for fourth-class mail—in the merchandise class of express traffic, with the postage charges on the same packages if sent by fourth-class mail shows the comparative cheapness of mail and express. This comparison is represented in the chart following this page. It will there be seen that the fourth-class mail charges are less than the express charges for merchandise in the case of all packages weighing I pound 8 ounces or less, but that for all packages weighing more than that amount, the comparative cheap- ness of express and mail varies with the base rate on which the express charges are graduated.” Since distance is usually the main considera- tion in fixing base rates, this is the same as saying that the compara- tive cheapness of mail and express varies with distance. In the case of base rates from $.40 to $.60, the express charge is the same as the mail charge when the weight is I pound 9 ounces. But for all weights I pound IO Ounces and upwards the express charge is the lower of See Report on Special Weighing of the Mails, 1907, p. 58. * The graduation of express charges is explained on page 124. - BASE RATES | BASE RATES BASE RATES BASE RATES assº BASE RATES BASE RATES 30.49 $0.50 | 86.60 | 80.75 || 30.90 || $1.00 | #1.10 || $1.25 || $1.40 || $1.50 || $1.60 || $1.75 || $2.00 38.25, $2.50 || $2.75 || Tº... 1 #14.00 º %iº * % % % - 3 IBS.-ll: %|T3 IBS. II: ÖZ. % 3 LBS. 13 222' Z º % ZZZ % 34. 75 the two. Similar comparison is shown in the case of the other base rates. From this it is seen that, as the base rate increases, that is, as the length of haul increases, the mail charge becomes cheaper than the express charge for higher and higher weights. When the base rate reaches $2.75, and from that point up to $14.OO, the mail charges are cheaper in all cases except those of packages weighing from 2 pounds I4 ounces to 3 pounds and packages weighing from 3 pounds I3 ounces to 4 pounds. It will be seen that parcels of 4 pounds or less are strongly in- fluenced to seek mail transportation (a) whenever the weight is I pound 8 ounces or less, and (b), in the case of higher weights, when- ever the base rate is high, that is, whenever the distance is long. With respect to the first case, reference to the diagram in Appendix IV shows that far the larger part of the total number of pieces of fourth- class mail consists of pieces having weights within the limit mentioned of I pound 8 ounces. The average weight of pieces of fourth-class mail was found to be only about 5.06 ounces, notwithstanding packages are accepted up to 4 pounds in weight. Of course a much smaller proportion of the total weight falls within this limit. But the pro- portion is still dominant, so that the average haul per pound of fourth- class mail is powerfully affected by the haul of these light parcels. Now Such small pieces include a very large amount of merely personal or non-commercial traffic that is not subject to such limits on distance as those which are imposed by local competition on the range of sale of purely commercial consignments. And in the case of purely com- mercial packages, also, it is a general observation of the express traffic that the lighter the packages the longer the haul. Thus the average haul of these light pieces of fourth-class mail is certainly well above the average haul to be expected for parcels up to II pounds. This can be said, notwithstanding that the parcel-post charges as usually proposed are the same for all distances. With respect to that smaller part of the total weight of fourth-class mail which is comprised in the pieces weighing over 1 pound 8 ounces, it is plain from the chart that this must be composed mainly of pieces traveling the longer distances. Therefore, the average haul of these heavier pieces of fourth-class mail is considerably longer than it would be if there were no competition from express companies. For it is this competition, on the basis of the comparative charges shown in the chart, that gives to the mail the long-haul packages. 76 The conclusion from these considerations may now be given. If the parcel post should have a monopoly of traffic within the limit of II pounds, it is certain that the average haul of the parcels would be far below the present average haul of fourth-class mail matter. If the parcel post should be operated in competition with the express companies, but with flat charges for all distances, the average haul of parcels would be longer than in case of a postal monopoly. But it would unquestionably be well below the present average haul of fourth-class mail. This would be so because the parcel post would carry much heavier packages than those now in the mail, and heavier packages would be subject to greater commercial restrictions on the distance they would be carried. The average haul of fourth-class mail supports nothing more definite than these general conclusions. The above consideration of this haul is valuable chiefly in that it shows that the average haul of fourth-class mail, contrary to a common assumption, is far above the average haul to be expected for parcels by parcel post. 2. Consideration of the Average Haul of Light-Weight Ea:press Matter. Much more valuable guidance may be had from some data recently brought to light on the average haul of express matter. The Inter- state Commerce Commission has recently computed the average haul for a very limited portion of one day's traffic carried by each of two express companies, namely, the Adams and the United States Com- panies." From details of the Interstate Commerce Commission's com- putation it can be found that the pieces, in this limited amount of traffic, weighing not Over 7 pounds and taking graduated charges,” had an average haul per ton of 331.46 miles with the Adams Company and * This was part of an analysis made for the recent investigation of express companies by the Interstate Commerce Commission. For the Adams Company, August 18, 1909, was taken. For the United States Company, December 22, I909. In the matter of the haul of express traffic, there were selected in different sections of the country a number of points, grouped in pairs, between which IOO or more pieces moved on the day selected. For the Adams Company there were 206 points. The traffic for which the haul was computed amounted to 15.48 per cent of the number of pieces in the company's total business on that day, 15.70 per cent of the total weight, and 13.98 per cent of the total revenue. For the United States Company there were 218 points. The traffic amounted to 14.66 per cent of the total number of pieces, 13.77 per cent of the total weight, and I3.26 per cent of the revenue for the day. * The method of graduating charges according to weight is described on page I24. 77 291.46 miles with the United States Company." These figures for pieces up to 7 pounds in weight are probably above the average haul of express matter up to II pounds in weight. For, as the weight of the package increases, the charges increase more rapidly with an increase of distance.” Therefore, the heavier packages reach the commercial limit to the distance at which they can be sold earlier than do the lighter packages. But on the other hand the average haul of express packages up to II pounds in weight is certainly less than it would be by parcel post under flat charges, regardless of distance. It is thus not improbable, on the basis of these figures for express packages under 7 pounds, that the average haul per ton of express matter in pieces II pounds and less would be about 275 miles. The parcel-post traffic would have a Somewhat longer average haul than this, because the flat charges for all distances, assumed in this study, would encourage a greater amount of long distance shipments than the present express charges permit. But this additional long distance traffic probably would not be of a relatively very large volume, because people living at a great distance apart have few interests to develop commercial intercourse with each other compared with their interests in transactions with nearby people. It is probable that the average haul of parcel-post matter would be about 300 miles. This deduction is sup- ported by a further detail of the Interstate Commerce Commission’s computation, which shows that the average haul of Section E matter was 328.18 miles for the Adams Company and 304.7 miles for the United States Company. This class of business is carried on a flat rate of practically one cent an ounce, regardless of distance, and is therefore comparable with fourth-class mail matter; but it is limited to smaller packages than would comprise the parcel-post traffic. The average * The data, as prepared by the Interstate Commerce Commission, do not give the figures in the text, but they are readily found by combining the data given by the Interstate Commerce Commission. * If the sum of the charges on seven packages from 1 to 7 pounds, on four packages from 8 to II pounds, and on II packages from 1 to II pounds, all shipped a distance covered by the 40 cent base rate, be compared with the similar sums of the charges on the same packages if shipped greater distances, the in- crease in the sum of the charges compares with the increase in the distance, as represented by the base rates, in the manner shown by the following relative numbers for each sum of charges : Base rate per IOO pounds. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $0.40 $3.00 $13.50 Relative numbers proportionate to the sum of charges on seven packages from I to 7 pounds. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I 2 2.4 Same on four packages, 8 to II pounds. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I 2.75 4.75 Same on eleven packages, I to II pounds. . . . . . . . . . . . . . I 3.4 4.95 78 weight was only 1.55 pounds for the Adams Company and 1.31 pounds for the United States Company. On that account, the average haul of parcel-post packages, estimated to average about 3.75 pounds, would probably be somewhat less than the distances just given. 3. Conclusion as to Average Haul of Parcel-Post Traffic. From all the factors considered up to this point, the conclusion is drawn that, in case of a postal monopoly, the average haul per pound or ton of parcel-post traffic would probably be about 300 miles. In the case of competition with express companies, assuming the parcel- post charges to be 8 cents a pound for any distance, the average haul of the traffic would probably be about 400 miles. 2. To N-MILEAGE OF PARCEL-Post TRAFFIC The tonnage of parcel traffic in case of a postal monopoly was esti- mated at about 343,125 tons." The average haul has just been esti- mated at about 300 miles The ton-mileage would then be about Io2,- 937,500 ton-miles. In case of competition between the parcel post and express com- panies, the tonnage was estimated at about 127,000 tons.” The average haul has just been estimated at about 400 miles. The ton-mileage would then be about 56,800,000 ton-miles. * Page 66. * Page 73. 79 - CAR SPACE REQUIRED TO CARRY THE PARCEL TRAFFIC I. PROBABLE METHOD OF HANDLING PARCEL TRAFFIC ON THE TRAINS Having reached an estimate of the volume of the parcel traffic, the next step in the inquiry is to ascertain the facilities necessary for its handling. The question of facilities would appear to be susceptible of a comparatively easy and accurate answer. But as the examination of the available data proceeded, it was found to be fully as speculative as the question of the probable volume of the business. One element of speculation lies in the difficulty of determining how the Post Office Department will handle the parcel business. Will the parcels be thrown in with the other mail, dispatched with the same expedition and on the same schedules, and be sorted and distributed mainly in the mail cars? or will they be largely or altogether separated from other mail, carried on slower trains, in less expensive and lighter cars, with less frequent departures P or will they be carried in a manner that combines part of both these methods? Probably not even the Post Office Department itself can at this time determine exactly how it would Organize the handling of parcels. Nevertheless, there must be at least a hypothetical conclusion as a basis for the present discussion. Any conclusion must turn on considerations affecting practicability and advisability. As to practicability, it would be practicable to handle a very large part of the parcel business in with other mail. Fourth- class matter is so handled now. Probably 20,000,000 pieces weigh Over half a pound and 9,000,000" over one pound, the maximum limit in each case being four pounds. At Christmas times these quantities are greatly increased. Yet they are hauled, sorted, and distributed along with other mail with the same appliances and organization. However, a question arises as to whether the general run of parcels up to II pounds in weight could be sorted and distributed into mail Sacks as mail cars are now equipped and without damage to letters or other mail. - - As to adaptability of present equipment, mail-car furniture is so constructed that adjustment to meet the needs for parcel distribution would be easy by the use of larger mail sacks or other changes in equipment not of serious consequence. * For the derivation of these quantities see Appendix III. 8O As to damage to other mail, it is to be noted that letter mail is car- ried almost wholly in separate pouches, in which no fourth-class mail, except registered packages, is placed. Second, third, and fourth class matter are carried together in sacks. But the greater part of Second- class mail is received directly from the publishers in sacks that contain no other class. In any case, second-class mail could not be damaged by parcels, except by certain articles or liquids. Third-class mail includes much, like books, that could not be damaged by parcels. As to the remainder, it is now subjected to the hammering of the heavier pieces of second, third, and fourth class mail, including many heavy books and public documents. It is doubtful whether the intro- duction of probably the greater part of the parcels under II pounds would materially increase the risk of damage to other mail. The re- mainder of the parcels likely to endanger other mail would include only the heavier packages. These are usually the larger in size also and would therefore be capable of Separate handling to good ad- vantage. Risk of damage to the Smaller parcels themselves could be reduced by special requirements as to packing and wrapping. A further consideration in point as to practicability is that, except in the case of registered parcels, the parcel post does not contemplate the use of way-bills or the consequent expenditure of labor and time in checking parcels against way-bills. However, although the greater part of the parcels could be carried in with the other mail, there would be a considerable part which could not. Such would be parcels of the greater weights but very small in size. These would not have sufficient bulk to keep them from chugging in the sacks to the damage of the other contents. Among these also would need to be included parcels of inconvenient dimensions. But the parcel-post proposal contemplates a limit on dimensions as well as weight, So the number of such irregularly shaped parcels would not be as great as that of similar parcels under II pounds in weight carried in the present express traffic. Such of these parcels as there might be would have to be handled individually. Finally, if the law should admit to the mail such perishable articles as are carried in Germany, these would have to be handled in large part outside of the mail sacks. But it has been seen that there is some doubt as to the admission of this class of traffic to the mails, and that, even if admitted, it will probably not be of any considerable volume. 8I The conclusion to which these considerations lead is that it would be quite practicable to carry the greater part of the parcel business in the sacks with the other mail and the remainder of it along with the other mails in the mail cars or other cars now used. After the question of practicability comes the question of advisability. The principal reasons for desiring to handle parcels in with other mail are the quicker dispatch and greater frequency of Service thereby ob- tainable. These are important considerations in the transmission of communications and newspapers. But will the same degree of expedi- tion and speed be considered of sufficient importance to a parcel service to make it advisable to incur the great additional expense necessary therefor? - - - The alternative to such an expensive mail-car service is the use of just such cars as express companies now employ. That this would be a practicable alternative will appear from a description of the express companies' practice. All the Smaller parcels—that is, those weighing less than about seven pounds—for protection against damage and for convenience in handling are separated from the remaining traffic and carried in messengers' heavy, iron-bound trunks, averaging about 2 feet by 2 feet by 3 feet and weighing when empty I50 or 175 pounds. Wherever the volume of these smaller parcels is dense, these trunks are specialized for particular destinations or particular routes just as are mail sacks. That is, parcels are sorted directly into trunks, all for the same point or for the same route being placed in the same trunk. The trunks are then Sealed and dispatched in the proper car. The majority of these trunks are opened somewhere en route and a redistribution made, in connection with parcels accumulated along the way, into trunks for other points and other routes. Even on routes where the density of the Small-parcel business is light, every express messenger has his trunk in which he keeps these smaller parcels. The method of express companies in distributing the Smaller parcels into trunks en route is thus exactly the same as the distribution of the mail into sacks while en route on the trains. - - This alternative, however, would not necessitate the handling of par- cels exclusively in other than mail cars. On routes where the volume of the parcel traffic is light and on those local routes along which parcels would be received and delivered in small quantities at way sta- tions, considerations of economy in handling, as well as of expedition, would make it advisable that parcels be sorted and distributed in the 6—R 82 mail or apartment cars along with the other mail. But wherever the parcel traffic, through and local, along a route would be sufficient to occupy a car or an apartment by itself, the business could be carried and sorted in just such cars as express companies now use. This method of handling parcels for the most part in other than mail cars might make the service somewhat less frequent and Speedy. But it would have the following advantages not enjoyed by mail-car Service. It would permit the parcels which are shipped from the various centers to be the better concentrated. This would permit, a more economical and a more nearly complete and final distribution to be made before putting them on the train. This, in turn, would reduce the amount of car space required for distribution en route. In connection with this is the further advantage that the stream of parcel traffic, being so much less dense than that of the mail, could, if separated from the other mails, be distributed en route without the space-consuming special fur- niture required in the mail cars to expedite the distribution of the mail. For both these reasons the car space required to handle the par- cel traffic would be much less under this method than if the parcels were thrown into the other mail. As bearing on the probable choice between these two methods of handling parcels, the practice in European countries, as described in the account of the parcel service in those countries, may be recalled to mind. The practice there is to separate the parcels from the mail, in So far as the volume of their movement permits this to be done to advantage. The attempt is not made to maintain the mail schedule for the transmission of parcels. But something is sacrificed in this respect for the economy of sorting parcels before dispatching them. In this connection should be noted further that the officials of the Post Office Department, in testimony before the Senate Committee on Post Offices and Post Roads, expressed the belief that the parcel traffic could be better handled if it were largely separated from the mails. In view of all the foregoing considerations, it may be assumed for the purpose of this study that the parcel-post traffic would be carried apart from the mail as far as possible. The amount of separation would depend upon the volume of the business, and would vary from merely a separation into different sacks, in the same cars, to separation into different cars, and, in many cases, to separation into different trains. * 83 2. PROBABLE AMoUNT OF CAR SPACE REQUIRED Assuming the method of handling the parcels to be that of the above conclusion, the amount of car space required for the parcel-post traffic may be approximated. The investigation by the Post Office Depart- ment into the cost of transporting the mails has disclosed Some data on the car space used for express matter in November, 1909." From this data it may be estimated that the total amount of this car space for the fiscal year ended June 30, 1909, was about 16,750,000,000 foot- miles. The estimated ton-mileage of express matter in pieces of II pounds or less in the fiscal year 1909 is about 7.5 per cent of the total ton- mileage of all express traffic in that year. It is probable that the pieces under II pounds require somewhat more space for handling en route than the average space per unit of weight for the whole traffic. Ample allowance for that would be made by assuming that the pieces of II pounds or less, comprising about 7.5 per cent of the total ton-mileage, required IO per cent of the car space. On that assumption, the 61,875,- OOO ton-miles of this lighter traffic required about 1,675,000,000 foot- * The Preliminary Report of the Committee on Railway Mail Pay gives 1,300,- Io8,589 foot-miles. The report of the Post Office Department (H. R. IoS, 62d Congress, Ist Session) gives. I,379,315,759 foot-miles. The difference between these amounts appears to be due to the fact that the report of the Post Office De- partment was compiled several months later than that of the Committee on Rail- way Mail Pay, and thus included a more complete presentation of all the data. But neither of these figures can be taken as true amounts, for in neither case did the returns on which they are based represent the whole railway service in operation. The figure given by the Post Office Department represented slightly less than 89 per cent of the total length of all the railway mail routes at the time. The figure given by the Committee on Railway Mail Pay represented only 77 per cent of the railway mileage at the time. Some basis for a judgment as to the true amount of car space used may be had from a comparison of the railway express revenue during the period covered by the investigation with the same revenue for the fiscal year ended June 30, 1910. These were, respectively, $5,075,221 (Preliminary Report of the Committee on Railway Mail Pay, p. 8), and $67,190,922 (Annual Report of the Interstate Com- merce Commission on the Statistics of Railways for 1910, p. 71.) The ratio between these sums is I3.23. If that ratio be applied to the amount of car space corresponding to the above express revenue for the period of the investigation, namely, 1,320,108,589 foot-miles the result suggests that the car space used during the whole year 1909–1910 was about 17,465,000,000 foot-miles. Since the volume of express business in the fiscal year ended June 30, 1910, was about Io per cent greater than that for the fiscal year ended June 30, 1909, the above amount of car space is probably larger than the amount for the fiscal year 1909. The car space required would not increase as much as the volume of busi- ness, because a great deal of additional business could be cared for in the car space already necessary for the service. Allowing for that fact, it may be assumed that the car space required for the fiscal year 1909 was about 16,750,- OOO,000 foot-miles. 84 miles of car space. That is at the rate of 27.07 foot-miles per ton-mile of the traffic, or 27.07 linear feet per ton of load in the car. The ton-mileage of the parcel-post traffic in case of a government monopoly was estimated at about 102,937,500 ton-miles. The required car space would then amount to 2,786,500,000 foot-miles. Reduced to the basis of cars 60 feet long, this is equivalent to about 46,440,000 car-miles. - In the case of competition, the ton-mileage of the parcel-post traffic was estimated at about 50,800,000 ton-miles. That would be about 1,375,150,000 foot-miles, or, in terms of 60-foot cars, about 22,920,OOO car-miles. - These estimates of car space are not to be taken as of entirely new car space in addition to that total car space now provided by railways for both express companies and the Post Office Department together. Considering that there would not be very much of the parcel traffic distributed in mail cars, only a small part of this necessary Space would have to be in railway mail cars. Consequently, much of the car space now used by express companies could be taken over by the Post Office Department with the portion of the present express traffic that would then go by parcel post. In that case the only new car space would be that required for the new traffic. That traffic was estimated at about 30,235,000 ton-miles in case of a monopoly." . This would require some 814,450,000 foot-miles of car space, or, on the assumption of 60-foot cars, about I.3,640,000 car-miles. In case of competition, the new traffic, created partly by the parcel post and partly by express com- panies through reduction of charges, has been estimated at about 48,740,000 ton-miles.” This would require about 1,319,400,000 foot- miles, or 21,990,000 car-miles, of car space. These amounts of new car space are equal to an increase in the total car space in use in both mail and express of about 2.5 per cent in case of a monopoly and about 4 per cent in case of competition.” * See page 107, note I. * See page 108, note I. - * The amount of car space used by the mail service for the fiscal year 1909– 1910 may be estimated from the returns of the investigation into the cost of transporting the mails. The railway mail revenue during the period of the in- vestigation (Preliminary Report of the Committee on Railway Mail Pay, p. 8) was 7.5 per cent of the annual rate of expenditure for the year 1909–1916 for transportation and mail cars as of June 30, 1910. Annual Report of the Post Office Department, 1910, pp. 130 and 134.) Applying that ratio to the reported amount of car space used during the period (Committee on Railway Mail Pay, p. 8), gives I5,375,000,000 foot-miles as the amount of car space for the year 1909– IQIO. The increase during the next year may be arrived at as follows: The increase in average daily weight carried from 1908 to 1911 has been estimated at about 85 This assumes that the cars now furnished for the express traffic would be acceptable to the Post Office Department with respect to strength and modern construction. It is possible that many of them would not. This might mean that the Post Office Department would choose as many of the more acceptable cars as might be needed and the rejected cars would be left for the express companies’ use. If this arrangement were resisted by the express companies, it would mean Scrapping, or devoting to Some bye-use an indeterminate amount of car space, depending upon the severity with which the Post Office Depart- ment made its choice from existing express cars. 18 per cent (page 133). Assume that it was about 6 per cent a year. The car Space would probably not increase quite as much as the average daily weight. Assume that it increased 4.5 per cent. - Applying this to the 15,375,000,000 foot-miles estimated above for IQIO, gives I6,066,000,000 foot-miles as the amount used in 1910–191 I. The amount used in the express service has been already estimated at about 16,750,000,000 foot-miles (page 83). The total in use in both mail and express was then about 32,810 OOO,000 foot-miles. On that as a basis, the additional car space for the new traffic amounts to about 2.5 per cent in the case of monopoly, and about 4 per cent in case of competition. 86 COMPENSATION TO THE RAILWAYS FOR CARRYING THE PARCEL TRAFFIC I. FoR TRANSPORTATION. The question of railway compensation for carrying the parcel-post traffic is rendered somewhat indeterminable by the renewed discussion in official circles of the whole question of compensation for carrying the mails. However, it will be helpful in defining the interests affected to assume that the present basis of pay will be continued, and to estimate the compensation on that basis at the present rates of payment. The present system makes payment for carrying the weight of mail and an additional payment for the use of the special mail cars. For compensating the transportation of the weight of mail, the law pre- scribes an annual payment per mile of the mail route, the amount of the annual payment varying with the average daily weight of mail carried over the whole route. The annual payment per mile of route is so graduated on the basis of the average daily weight carried that the resultant amount of pay per unit of weight decreases rapidly as the average daily weight increases until the latter reaches 5,000 pounds. Beyond that amount the rate of pay per unit of weight decreases more slowly, and beyond 48,000 pounds it decreases very slowly with the increase in average daily weight. On account of this feature of the rates of mail pay, the additional compensation for the added weight of the parcels would be considerably less than proportionate to the increase of the weight of mail carried. It is not practicable to ascertain the compensation for carrying parcels by computing it for each of the 3,378 mail routes." However, if it be assumed that the increase in the average daily weight of mail would be in a uniform proportion on all mail routes, an estimate can be made of the percentage by which the total compensation on all routes would be increased if parcels were added to the mails and, therefrom, an estimate of the additional compensation to the railways as a whole. This has been done; and a similar estimate has been made * In the first place, this would require an estimate to be made of the pro- portionate amount of parcel traffic that would be added to the mails on each route. But such an estimate could not be made within an acceptable degree of accuracy. In the second place, the time and expense required for the calculation would not be justified, considering that the basic data would be merely estimates, 87 for each of the four weighing sections into which the Post Office Department has divided the country." On the basis of such average results, it will be possible for the officials in charge of the mail on each railway to make the modifications required by local influences much more accurately than such adjustments can be made in this study for all the railways. The method which has been employed for arriving at the estimate of the probable compensation for carrying parcels in the mail is as follows: First there was made an estimate of the percentage increase in the average daily weight of mail that would result from the addition of the parcel traffic.” This estimated increase is about 25 per cent * The law requires that the Post Office Department ascertain the weight of the mails as a basis for fixing mail pay, “not less frequently than once in every four years.” The Department has for many years allowed this maximum period to elapse between successive weighings. And, to distribute the labor of making the weighings over the whole four-year period, it has divided the country into four sections, in each of which the weighing is made once in four years. The sections are composed, respectively, of the several States as follows: First Weighing Section: Maine New Jersey New Hampshire Pennsylvania Vermont Delaware Massachusetts Maryland Rhode Island Virginia Connecticut West Virginia New York Second Weighing Section: North Carolina Alabama South Carolina Mississippi Georgia Tennessee Florida Kentucky Third Weighing Section: Ohio Wisconsin Indiana Minnesota Illinois Iowa Michigan Missouri Fourth Weighing Section: Arkansas Colorado Louisiana New Mexico Texas Arizona Oklahoma Utah Kansas Idaho Nebraska Washington North Dakota Oregon South Dakota Nevada Montana California Wyoming * This computation has made no allowance for a possible difference between the weight of equipment required for a given weight of parcels and the weight of equipment required for an equal weight of mail. The total weight of mail 88 for the case of a monopoly, and about 12 per cent for the case of competition. Then there was estimated the percentage by which the addition to the average daily weight would increase the aggregate compensation on all the routes in each of the weight classes" to which the different rates of pay per mile apply. From these results for each weight class, the average percentage increase of compensation for all classes was obtained. Finally, this general percentage was applied to the present annual pay for transportation, and thus was obtained the amount of additional transportation pay that would be received for carrying parcels.” I. Case of Monopoly. The results of this method of estimating the compensation for carry- ing parcels in case of a postal monopoly are shown for the whole country and for each weighing section” in the accompanying table on page 89.” and equipment transported by railways has been here increased in the ratio of the estimated weight of parcels to the present weight of mail. This, of course, assumes that the weight of equipment also will be increased in the same ratio. This may not be the case. The equipment for fourth-class mail has been esti- mated by the Post Office Department, as about one-ninth of the mail matter, while it places the equipment for the whole mail traffic at about one-half of the mail matter. If the Post Office Department should adopt the practice of express companies, which use heavy trunks to contain the parcels, the equipment for a parcel traffic would be relatively much heavier than the present equipment for fourth-class mail, and might well amount to one-half of the weight of the parcels. The question as to what the Post Office Department would find most suitable in the way of equipment is so indeterminable that it has seemed best not to endeavor to make any allowance for this factor, but to carry through the computation on the assumption that the ratio between equipment and contained mail matter will be the same for parcels as for the whole mail traffic. * For explanation of the classification of mail routes, see Appendix VI, page I34, Inote 2. - * The details of the estimate require a more extended description than it would be advisable to incorporate in the text. Accordingly, it is given in Appendix VI. * The results for the individual weighing sections, both in the case of a postal monopoly and in the case of competition, were obtained on the assumption that the per cent of increase in the average daily weight of mail would be the same in each section as for the country as a whole. This is hardly probable. But an independent estimate of the compensation for each section, on the basis of a separately estimated increase in its weight, would increase the labor to a pro- hibitive degree. º * Although the estimates of compensation as given in the table appear to in- dicate the amounts of pay even to the number of cents, it is not pretended that they have any such degree of accuracy. They are merely left in the form in which they issued from the computations. The compensation for each weight class of routes for the country as a whole must equal the sum of the com- pensation for the same classes in the different weighing sections. Any adjustment of the estimates to round numbers, that would meet this condition, would in- volve unequal changes in the figures as derived from the computations. Accord- ingly, the amounts of the estimates are left in their original form. OO \O ESTIMATES OF TRANSPORTATION PAY FOR PARCELS.—CASE OF A PARCEL-POST MONOPOLY. All weighing sections. First weighing section. Second weighing section. Third weighing section. Fourth weighing section. Per Per | Per Per Per Weight class of routes. cent in- cent in- cent in- cent in- cent in- Transpr rtation crease || Transportation crease || Transportation crease || Transportation crease || Transportation crease pay for parcels. O II pay for parcels. OTI pay for parcels. O Il pay for parcels. OD1 pay for parcels. Old present present present present present pay. pay. pay. pay. pay. 2 I I pounds and less . . . . . $9,748.03 || I.21 $1,644.58 I.OO $1,95I.74 I. IO $2,376. II | 1.20 $3,775.60 I.43 2 I 2 pounds to 5 IQ pounds I44,457. O7 IO.O2 23,815.08 || IO.O3 25,6O1.97 | Io. O4 4I,405.98 || Io.O2 53,634.04 || IO.OO 52O ‘‘ “ IoI9 “ 235, I 16.33 IO. I2 4O,790.4I | IO.32 38, I55.57 | Io. 45 54,546.94 | IO.47 IOI,623.4I 9.75 I O2O ‘‘ ‘‘ 1519 “ 268,704. 16 || 13.5I 38,594. IS I3.36 45,396.55 I3.44 93,299. IO || I3.57 9I,4I4.33 I3.54 1520 ‘‘ ‘‘ 2059 “ I36,828.68 II.O4 26,355.53 II.4 I I3,906.83 IO.56 52,084.44 II.22 44,481.88 || Io.8o 2060 ‘‘ ‘‘ 3559 “ I71,186.80 6.69 31,275.92 | 6.7O 23,568. II | 6.36 47,838. 16 6.60 68,504.61 6.88 3560 ‘‘ ‘‘ 5079 “ I76,414.7I | 8.02 26,068.72 | 7.98 19,598.06 || 8.05 55,47I. 23 8.OI 75,276.70 8.03 508o “ “48103 “ 2,4I3,702. 2 I | I4.2 I 263,897.79 || I3.4I 34I, 247. I9 I3.45 819,875.6I I4.62 988,681.62 I4.39 48IO4 ‘‘ and over. . . . . . 4,253,762.38 || 23.07 || I,235,015.77 || 23.91 52,763.08 || 19.55 || I,963,390.3.I 22.65 || I,002,593.22 || 23. I3 Total for all classes. . . . . $7,809,920.37 | 16.28 || $1,687,457.98 || 18.25 $562,189. Io | I ſ.99 || $3,130,287.88 || 17.41 || $2,429,985.4I I5. I2 Per cent of total for all weighing sections. . . . . . . . IOO.OO . . . . . . . 2I.6I |. . . . . . 7.2O | . . . . . . 40.08 |... . . . 3I. II | . . . . . . Per cent which the present transportation pay, for each section, is of the total for all sections. . . . . . . . . . . IOO.OO | . . . . . . I9.27 | . . . . . . 9.85 . . . . . . 37.08 |. . . . . . 33.80 . . . . . . tº QO The results obtained indicate that the railways of the country as a whole would, in case of a parcel-post monopoly, receive about $7,810,- Ooo additional transportation pay on account of about 343,125 tons, or Io2,937,500 ton-miles, of parcel traffic. This is equivalent to about $22.76 per ton carried and about 7.58 cents per ton-mile. The additional pay for parcels in the different weighing sections shows con- siderable variation. It would be greatest in the third section, where it would approximate $3,130,000. The fourth section would follow next with about $2,430,000; the first section next with nearly $1,690,000; and the second section would receive the least, only about $560,000. The lack of satisfactory data for estimating the apportionment of the aggregate parcel traffic to each of the four weighing sections prevents any helpful estimate for these sections separately of the average pay per ton or per ton-mile carried. A comparison of the per cent of the total additional pay for trans- porting parcels that each weighing section would receive with the per cent of the total transportation pay now received by each weigh- ing section is given in the last two lines of the table. This com- parison discloses the effect that the existing basis and rates of mail pay would have upon the division of the aggregate pay for parcels among the four weighing sections as compared with the division of the present pay for transporting the mails. It has been already mentioned that the present scale of mail pay is So adjusted that the increase in transportation pay would be much less than proportionate to the increase in average daily weight carried. In the case of a monopoly the increase in average daily weight was estimated at about 25 per cent. This has been assumed in the com- putations to hold for all classes of routes. The increase in transpor- tation pay, however, for this 25 per cent increase in average daily weight, would be only about 16 or 17 per cent for all classes of routes combined. Considered with respect to the different classes separately, it would vary, rather irregularly, from about 1.21 per cent in the class now carrying 2 II pounds or less to about 23 per cent in the class now carrying 48, IO4 pounds or over. As between different weighing sections, the per cent of increase in transportation pay for all weight classes would be greatest in the first Section, where it would approximate 18 per cent, and lowest in the Second section, where it would be only about 12 per cent. The per cent increase in the third section, namely, about 17.5 per cent, would º: 9I nearly equal that in the first, while in the fourth, it would be about I 5 per cent, which is midway between the two extremes. . . 2. Case of Competition. The estimates of compensation for transporting parcels in the event of competition between the parcel post and express companies are shown in the table on page 92. The aggregate additional pay for transporting the parcels would approximate $3,780,000. The amounts received by the different weighing sections would be in the same rela- tive order as in the case of monopoly. The third section would receive most, namely, about $1,560,000. The fourth section would be next, with about $1,16O,OOO ; the first section would follow with about $790,000; and the second section would receive least, only about $270,000. The average pay per ton carried for all sections would approximate $29.76. The excess of this over the average pay per ton in case of monopoly is due to the longer haul in case of com- petition. The average pay per ton-mile would be about 7.44 cents, which is nearly the same as in case of a monopoly. As in the case of monopoly, no separate averages per ton or per ton-mile are available for the four weighing sections or for the different weight classes. The per cent of increase in transportation pay on account of adding parcels to the mail shows the same characteristics in the case of com- petition as in the case of monopoly. The increase in average daily weight carried was estimated at about I2 per cent, but the increase in transportation pay for this increase in average daily weight would amount to less than 8 per cent. The variation in the rate of increase in pay runs irregularly from 34 of one per cent for the class of routes carrying 2 II pounds or less daily to something over II per cent for the class of routes carrying 48, IO4 pounds or over daily. As between the different weighing sections, their relative order with respect to the per cent of increase in pay is about the same as in the case of monopoly. The first and third sections, as before, are highest with nearly the same per cent of increase, namely, 8.59 per cent and 8.66 per cent, respectively, but their relative position is changed from that in the case of monopoly. The second section is again lowest with an increase of only 5.72 per cent, and the fourth Section is again about midway between the extremes with an increase of 7.22 per cent. The percentage of increase in pay for the different weight classes in each weighing section shows the same sort of vari- ations as in the case of all weighing sections in the aggregate. § ESTIMATES OF TRANSPORTATION PAY FOR PARCELS.–CASE OF COMPETITION BETWEEN PARCEL POST AND EXPRESS COMPANIES. All weighing sections. First weighing section. Second weighing section. Third weighing section. Fourth weighing section. Per Per Per Per Per Weight class. centin- cent in- cent in- cent in- cent in- Transportation crease || Transportation crease || Transportation crease || Transportation crease || Transportation crease pay for parcels. OIl pay for parcels. Old pay for parcels. OIl pay for parcels. O11 pay for parcels. OD1 present present present present present pay. pay. pay. pay. pay. 2 I I pounds to 5 II pounds $2,727.89 o.34 | $4I5.7O | O.25 $463.OI o. 26 $686. I4 O.35 $1,163.O4 O. 44 212 “ “ 519 “ 58,522.85 4.06 9,636. O7 || 4.06 Io,348.81 || 4.06 I6,764.96 || 4.06 2I,773.OI 4.O6 520 “ “ IoI9 “ II.3,425.84 || 4.88 | I9, I24.90 || 4.84 I7.972.34 4.92 25,356.54 4.87 50,972. O6 4.89 1020 ‘‘ ‘‘ 1519 “ I31,300.54 || 6.60 | I9,025.53 | 6.58 22,356 32 || 6.62 45,642. I7 | 664 44,276.52 6.56 1520 “ “ 2059 “ 73, 544.43 || 5.94 I3,416.79 || 5.8 I 7,594.32 5-77 27,612. I2 5.95 24,921.20 | 6.05 2O6o “ . 3559 º 83,004.87 || 3.24 I5,227.29 || 3.26 II,759.63 || 3. I8 23, II.3.O4 3. I9 32,904.9 I 3.3O 3560 “ ‘‘ 5079 87,051.79 || 3.96 I2,966 O6 || 3.97 9,776.39 || 4.02 27,356.60 | 3.95 36,952.74 3.94 508o ‘‘ ‘‘ 48103 “ I, I63,2O7.25 6.85 I25,573.06 6.38 I62,400.85 6.4O 402,654.72 || 7. I8 472,578.62 6.87 4814O “ and over. . . . . . . 2,067,057.89 II.2.1 578,941.38 II.2.1 25,404.38 9.4I 988, I40.91 II.4O 474, 57 I. 22 9.47 Total for all classes. . . . . $3,779,843.35 | 7.88 $794,326.78 8.59 $268,076.05 || 5.72 || $1,557,327.20 | 8.66 || $1,160, I 13.32 7.22 Per cent of total for all weighing sections. . . . . . . . IOO.OO | . . . . . . 2.I.O2 . . . . . . 7. O9 . . . . . . 4I. 20 ! . . . . . . 30.69 |. . . . . . Per cent which the present transportation pay, for each section, is of the total for all sections. . . . . . . . . . . IOO.OO . . . . . . . I9.27 | . . . . . . 9.85 . . . . . . 37.08 |. . . . . . 33.8o . . . . . . 93 II. For RAILWAY MAIL CARs. If the parcel traffic is carried in the manner accepted by this study as the most probable, there will be little additional space required in railway mail cars. The greater part of the traffic will be hauled in cars like the present express cars. So far as parcels may have to be carried in with other mail and distributed en route, they will be handled in mail cars. But the amount of the parcel traffic that will be so handled will constitute such a relatively small addition to the present mail traffic that the greater part of it can be cared for in the mail car space already in use. Therefore, the probable increase in railway mail car pay will be so small as to be negligible for the purpose of this study. 94 LOSS OF RAILWAY REVENUE THROUGH TRANSFER OF FREIGHT AND EXPRESS TRAFFIC TO A PARCEL POST. I. Loss of FREIGHT REVENUE. Over against the compensation which the railways would receive for carrying postal parcels should be set the revenue they would lose because of freight and express transferred to the parcel post. The loss of revenue because of the transfer of merchandise from indirect channels of distribution through middle men and freight transportation to direct channels of distribution by parcel post probably would not be very important. The traffic thus transferred would be included in that part of the parcel-post traffic which the parcel post itself would develop in addition to the traffic taken over from express companies. It has been shown that the amount of this new traffic would be largest under a postal monopoly, estimated at about I IO,050 tons for 1909." At an average haul of 300 miles, this would amount to 33,015,000 ton-miles. This should be compared with the total ton-mileage of freight in the United States. In 1909 this amounted to 218,802,986,929 ton-miles. The loss of freight tonnage on ac- count of a parcel post would thus be not over I.5 hundredths of one per cent of the whole tonnage on the railways. Since probably the whole of the traffic in question would fall in the higher classes of freight, the freight revenue corresponding to this traffic would be something over I.5 hundredths of one per cent of the total freight revenue. But on the other hand, it should also be considered that a part of the new parcel traffic developed by a parcel post would be absolutely new traffic, in addition to any that might be drawn away from the present freight traffic. Therefore, on the whole, the freight revenue lost by the railways, because of inroads upon the freight traffic by a parcel post, would probably be not over 1.5 hundredths of one per cent of the total freight revenue. On the basis of the freight revenue for IQII it would amount to about $288,400. This would be offset by an addition to the freight revenues on account of the greater part of that express business which, in case of a parcel post monopoly, would seek freight transportation rather than pay the higher charges by parcel post. The number of such * See page 65. 95 pieces would be much less than the number of pieces in the new business drawn out of freight transportation. But, since they would consist of the heaviest pieces of express matter, their aggregate weight, and hence the additional freight revenue for carrying them when consolidated with existing freight traffic, would probably about equal the loss of weight and revenue from traffic diverted. For this reason, and for the practical consideration that the net amount of freight revenue involved would be very small, in any case, this item may be ignored, in considering both the case of monopoly and the case of competition. II. LOSS OF ExPRESS REVENUE I. Case of Monopoly The railways' loss of revenue from express transportation would be a far larger amount. The railway compensation for hauling express matter has become fixed almost universally at Some percentage of the express companies' gross charges for handling the matter. To ascer- tain the railways' loss of express revenue it will thus be necessary first to estimate the gross revenue to the express companies from the traffic which would be taken over by a parcel post. This will be done first for the case of a postal monopoly, and then for the case of competition. This estimate may be made for the case of a monopoly in two ways. One method is based on the percentage that the revenue from traffic II pounds and less comprises of the total revenue from all traffic, This percentage may be estimated at about 30 per cent." The total - * For the Adams Company's business for one day in August, 1909, the revenue from pieces II pounds and less was 26.26 per cent of the aggregate revenue from all traffic on that day. For the six days' business of the Adams Company in August, 1911, it was 29.25 per cent. For the United States Company's busi- ness for one day, December 22, 1909, it was 39.94 per cent. For the business by Wells-Fargo and Company touching Minnesota during August and December, 1909, it can be closely estimated at about 33 per cent. The figure for one day's business by the Adams Company must be less than the average for the year, because it pertains to the time of year when the pro- portion of pieces within II pounds is smallest. Also, it takes no account of the indeterminable number of pieces under II pounds in weight which were included in a minor part of the traffic for which the weights of individual pieces could not be ascertained. For opposite seasonal conditions, the figure for the United States Company must be well above the average. The figure for the six days' business by the Adams Company is not a safe guide. It pertains to a time of year when the proportion of small pieces is lowest, but this consideration is opposed by another, namely, that the business from the sixteen offices selected did not include a typical proportion of general special business which is almost wholly above the limit of II pounds, and which originates largely in smaller towns and country points for shipment to the cities. If the revenue from this 96 revenue from the whole tonnage carried has been estimated for the year 1909 as about $125,850,000." On that basis the revenue from pieces II pounds and less was about $37,750,000. §, A second estimate may be made on the basis of the average charge per piece for the traffic under II pounds and the estimated number of such pieces. The average charge per package of all express matter under II pounds in weight may be assumed to be 37.5 cents.” The total number of pieces of express matter under II pounds in weight has been estimated for 1909 as IOI,000,000 pieces. The aggregate revenue to express companies from this part of their business may then be estimated at about $37,875,000 for 1909. This latter estimate com- mands greater confidence than the former, but the close agreement of the two argues for the probable accuracy of the estimates. All of this traffic would, under a monopoly, either go over to the parcel post, or go into channels of freight transportation, or, possibly in the case of a small amount, cease to move at all. Therefore, all this revenue would be lost to the express companies. Allowing the assumed increase of 17 or 18 per cent in the volume of express trans- portation business from 1909 to 191 I, the revenue lost by express companies would be about $44,500,000 as of the year 1911. The percentage of the tonnage revenue of express companies that is re- ceived by the railways is now nearly 50 per cent on an average. On that percentage, the railways' loss of express revenue under a parcel post enjoying a monopoly of the business under II pounds would be about $22,250,000 as of 1911. However, the conclusion should not be left in that form without taking another point into consideration. The railways make their contracts with the express companies, not with respect to each traffic were added to the aggregate revenue as reported, the percentage of reve- nue from pieces under II pounds as given would be appreciably reduced. The figure for Wells-Fargo and Company is hardly conclusive, because the traffic shows an unusually large proportion of Section D and E matter, and because it applies only to a limited section of the country. In view of these qualifications upon the data, one may only judge what the typical percentage may be. It has seemed probable that it is about 30 per cent. * See page 55, note I. * The average found by the Interstate Commerce Commission for the United States Company on December 22, 1909, was 37.40 cents. The average found by the Interstate Commerce Commission for the Adams Company on August 18, 1909, was 38.35 cents. . From the data found by the Adams Company itself for six days' business in August, 1911, the average charge for the three classes of traffic, namely, merchandise under II pounds, Section D and Section E, was 36.3 cents per piece. On the basis of these results, 37.5 cents may be accepted for use in the computation of aggregate revenue. 97 shipment, or even each class or part of the business, but with re- spect to the traffic as a whole. If it were otherwise, the contracts would provide a different percentage basis for different classes, weights, and distances. The railways would insist upon a higher per- centage for heavier weights and longer distances, while the express companies would insist upon lower percentages for lower classes, lighter weights, and shorter distances. But for the sake of greater simplicity in accounting, there is applied to all shipments a uniform per- centage that will secure to the railways an aggregate revenue that will compensate them for their aggregate service, and reach the same result that would be secured under a more complicated schedule of dif- ferent percentages for different shipments. That the uniform per- centage rate is applied to each shipment separately is simply a recog- nition of the convenience afforded by the character of an average, namely, that an average may be substituted for each one of the several items of which it is an average. The uniform percentage rate is used in lieu of each one of the separate percentage rates that would other- wise have to be used. In connection with this feature of the railway express contracts is the further consideration that the express companies fix their charges with respect to the principle that packages of a higher class of traffic, or of lighter weight, or going a shorter distance should bear a pro- portionately higher charge than those of a lower class, or of heavier weight, or going a longer distance. Now the business in pieces under II pounds is almost wholly of a higher classification and, by selection, of the lightest weight. It results that the revenue from this class of traffic is far more than proportionate to its weight. It comprises only 5 or 6 per cent of the aggregate weight and only about 7 or 8 per cent of the aggregate ton-mileage, but yields about 30 per cent of the aggregate revenue from that tonnage. Therefore, the railway revenue for hauling this part of the traffic, being a fixed and uniform percentage of the express companies' revenue, is far more than pro- portionate to the volume of this part of the traffic. If now the business in pieces under II pounds should be taken away from the express companies, the railways would lose about 30 per cent of their express revenue, but would be relieved of only 7 or 8 per cent of the service now performed for the express companies. In a word, from the point of view from which the railways approach the fixing of the percentage contracts, the two factors which control their agree- ment as to the percentage terms, namely, the service they render as 2 27 2 7—R Q8 .* a whole and the revenue the express companies receive as a whole, would stand in an entirely new relation to each other. The railways would still receive the same rate per cent of the aggregate charges as before. But the aggregate charges would be reduced much more than proportionately to the reduction in the tonnage carried. So that, when reduced to the usual transportation units of revenue, namely, the reve- nue per ton carried or per ton-mile, the remaining service and the re- maining compensation would show important changes in the rate of pay for the unit of service performed. r These changes may be computed from estimates of the volume of express traffic, and the amount of railway revenue therefor, that would remain after removing the business in pieces of II pounds and less. The ton-mileage of traffic in pieces of II pounds and less involves an estimate of the average haul of that traffic. The average haul of all pieces of express matter appears, from the limited data compiled by the Interstate Commerce Commission," to be about 200 miles. The volume of traffic in 1909 has been estimated at about 4,088,000 tons. The aggregate ton-mileage would then be about 817,600,000 ton-miles. The average haul of the traffic in pieces II pounds and less is greater than this average for the whole traffic because the lighter pieces are observed to travel longer distances. From the data considered on page 77, it may be assumed to be about 275 miles. The volume of this traffic has been estimated to be nearly 225,000 tons in 1909. The ton-mileage would then amount to about 61,875,000 ton-miles. The ton-mileage of the remaining 3,863,OOO tons of traffic in pieces over II pounds in weight would be then about 755,725,000 ton-miles. The average haul of this remaining traffic that accords with the estimated average haul of the whole traffic, and with that of the traffic in pieces under II pounds, would be about 195 miles. The transference of the business in pieces II pounds and less to the parcel post would deprive the railways of their percentage of the $37,875,OOO received by the express companies for this business in 1909, or about $18,935,000. That would leave, out of the $62,925,000 of aggregate railway revenue from the express tonnage alone in that * The extent of the data and the limitations upon it are described on page 76. The average haul of the traffic examined, about 15 per cent of one day's business, was found to be 166.57 miles for the Adams Company, and 206.60 miles for the United States Company. Considering that the two other large companies have a greater amount of mileage west of the Mississippi, where the hauls are longer, the average haul for all companies may be reasonably assumed to be about 200 miles. 99 year, only about $43,990,000 as the remaining railway revenue for the remaining traffic. Compared with the foregoing estimates of the tonnage and ton-mileage of the remaining traffic, that sum is equiva- lent to about $11.38 per ton carried, or about 5.8 cents per ton mile. That is to say, the removal of the business in pieces of II pounds and less would reduce the railway revenues for the express traffic hauled by them from an average revenue of $15.40 per ton to $1 I.38 per ton, and from an average revenue of nearly 7.7 cents per ton-mile to about 5.8 cents per ton-mile. These are reductions of 26 per cent and 24 per cent respectively. - Of course, this reduction in the revenue from the remaining traffic is not an independent element of loss in addition to the loss of the revenue that would accrue on the percentage basis on the packages under II pounds. Speaking in terms of the basic data, which per- tain to the year 1909, and from the viewpoint of the railway in- terest in the traffic as a whole, the $62,925,OOO of railway express revenue, accruing on account of tonnage only, may be regarded as made up of two parts. One part, $4,750,000 was received for about 61,– 875,000 ton-miles of traffic in pieces of II pounds and less at the rate of nearly 7.7 cents per ton-mile; the other part, $58,175,000, was re- ceived for the remaining 755,725,000 ton-miles of traffic in pieces over II pounds at the same rate of nearly 7.7 cents per ton-mile.” However, as an incident of the percentage form of contract between railways * This apportionment of the railway revenue between the light and heavy pieces of the express traffic ignores all claims that the light pieces are properly charge- able with higher rates per ton-mile than the heavier pieces. It is contended that the smaller pieces occupy more car space for a given weight than the heavier pieces do; and that they are usually of higher value for a given weight than are the heavier pieces. For both reasons, it is claimed, the railways should properly receive from this part of the traffic a higher rate per ton-mile than they do from the heavier pieces of express matter. This is a question of classification that admits of argument. It is no purpose of this study to enter upon such questions. However, it may be said that it does not appear probable that the difference between 30.6 cents, the ton-mile equiva- lent of the railways' revenue on the percentage basis from light pieces, and 5.8 cents, their revenue on that basis from heavy pieces (see above), can be suc- cessfully defended on considerations of classification. If not, then the aggregate railway express revenue that would be lost under a parcel post should not be considered as at present all earned by the traffic that would be lost under a parcel post, but should be in part credited to the heavier traffic and considered as a reduction in the revenue from that traffic for the reasons stated in the text. It has seemed best to apportion this lost revenue between the two parts of the traffic on the basis of their respective ton-mileage and leave it to the reader to modify the results obtained on that basis according to his judgment as to the proper classification of the two parts of the traffic. 1 OO and express companies and of the method of charges employed by express companies, the actual computation of the railway revenue appears to credit the traffic in pieces over II pounds with only $43,- 990,000, which is $14,185,000 less than it would be if weight and dis- tance, rather than a percentage of the express companies' revenue, were the basis of payment for transportation. On the other hand, this difference of $14,185,000 appears to be credited to the traffic in pieces of II pounds and less, which thereby appears to be the source of that much more revenue than it would have if weight and distance were the basis of payment. If this $14,185,000 be considered as part of the revenue from the traffic in pieces under II pounds, it can- not be considered as also part of the revenue from the traffic in pieces over II pounds. Therefore, if it be considered as lost with the business under II pounds, the revenue from the remaining traffic in pieces over II pounds must be considered as unaffected. If, however, the $14,185,000 be considered as part of the revenue from pieces over II pounds, then this revenue from the heavier pieces is affected by the amount in question as a result of transferring the traffic in pieces under II pounds to the parcel post. It may then be said that, in the event of a parcel post with a monopoly of the business in pieces under II pounds, the whole of the railway express revenue can be accounted for in one of two ways. In either case the railway express revenue would be decreased by $4,750,000, the amount of the revenue, at the average ton-mile rate, from that part of the traffic that consists of pieces II pounds and less. It would be further decreased by $14,185,000, which may be regarded in either, but not both, of two ways. It may be considered as an addi- tional part of the lost revenue from the traffic in pieces under II pounds, to which it is credited because of the percentage form of contract and the character of express charges; or it may be considered as a reduction in the revenue from the remaining traffic in pieces over II pounds, resulting from a reduction of the equivalent ton-mile rate because of the percentage form of contract and the character of ex- press charges. The former of these two statements is the same as the conclusion on the railways' loss of express revenue reached on page #e. and there suspended to take account of the additional consideration just discussed. Both statements predict the same aggregate amount of express revenue as lost to the railways, but both are not equally acceptable as forms for stating the amount involved. The former / / / IOI statement is open to the criticism that it concedes the ground on which rest those illogical criticisms of the revenues of railways and express companies, that compare these respective revenues from short-distance shipments with the respective revenue from long-distance shipments, and that make similar comparisons between light-weight Shipments and heavy-weight shipments. By thus segregating different parts of N the whole traffic—all subject to the same uniform percentage rate of railway compensation, but subject to express charges that are equiva- lent to different rates per pound or per mile—and comparing the re- spective revenues from the different parts, it can be made to appear that the express companies' share of the charges on long-distance shipments and on heavy shipments is unreasonably high, and that the railways' share of the charge on short-distance shipments and on light-weight- shipments is unreasonably high. Both deductions are used to support the argument for a radical reduction of express charges. From what has been said in the preceding discussion, it is clear that these criti-N cisms rest on the false assumption that the uniform percentage rate is agreed to as representing a reasonable division of the charges on each individual shipment separately considered, instead of being an average of all such possible percentages agreed to, for the sake of simplicity, with respect to the revenues as a whole and the volume of traffic trans- ported considered as a whole. Now, the former of the two methods in question of stating the loss of railway revenue commits this very error of considering by itself the revenue from one section of the whole traffic. - There is the further practical consideration that it invites some such reply as this: If the railways received $18,935,OOO ($4,750,000 plus $14,185,OOO) in 1909 for transporting only that part of the express traffic in pieces II pounds and less, of which the weight was only about 225,000 tons and the average haul was 275 miles, then they were paid at the rate of $84.16 per ton, or 30.6 cents per ton-mile. Their average revenue for the whole express traffic, namely, $15.40 per ton, or nearly 7.7 cents per ton-mile, the argument may continue, is an indi- cation of what they consider a fair compensation. Therefore, it will be concluded, they were enormously overpaid for the transportation of the business in pieces of II pounds and less; and the greater part of the revenue from that traffic that would be lost by reason of the parcel post ought to be lost and should not be considered as a ground for addi- tional mail pay for the parcel traffic, I O2 The actual fact as to the railways' point of view in fixing the ex- press contracts and the desirability of not appearing to sanction the false basis on which such an illogical argument as that just outlined may be constructed, both point to the latter of the two forms of state- ment as the proper manner of describing the loss of railways' express TeVentle. The suspended conclusion may then be restated as follows: In case of a parcel post under a postal monopoly, the railway loss of express revenue will be of two sorts. In terms of the basic data of 1909, there would be a loss of $4,750,000, the pay for transporting the business that would be lost to the express companies on account of the parcel post. In addition, as a consequence of the uniform percentage rate, established by contracts with many years yet to run, and as a consequence further of the character of the structure of express charges, there would be a reduction in the revenue from the remain- ing traffic over II pounds amounting to $14,185,000. This could not be avoided, or even reduced, without new contracts on higher percentage rates adjusted to the new relation between the volume of traffic hauled and the aggregate of express charges. Since new con- tracts cannot be taken for granted, this reduction in railway express revenues should properly be charged as an additional loss of revenue suffered on account of the transference of the business in pieces under II pounds from the express companies to the parcel post. Allowing for the increase in business since 1909, the amounts of the two elements of loss in revenue become for 1911, respectively, about $5,580,000 and $16,670,000. The final conclusion may then be stated in this form: In case of a parcel post under a postal monopoly of the traffic in parcels of II pounds and less, the railways would have their revenue from express traffic reduced by two items. One item of $5,580,000 would be the present revenue from express traffic in pieces II pounds and less, computed at the actual average rate of revenue per ton-mile now received from the whole express traffic. Another item of $16,670,000 would be the reduction in the present revenue from the remaining traffic in pieces over II pounds, due to the effect of the established percentage basis of payment and the char- acter of the Scale of express charges. This reduction is equivalent to a reduction in the rate of revenue per ton from $15.40 to $11.38, and 103 in the rate per ton-mile from nearly 7.7 cents to 5.8 cents. In per- centage terms, it would be a reduction of 26 per cent in the rate per ton and of 24 per cent in the rate per ton-mile received for the traffic in pieces over II pounds in weight. The aggregate loss of revenue would amount to $22,250,000. This is equivalent to a reduction of about 30 per cent in aggregate express revenue, offset by a reduction of only about 5.5 per cent in the aggre- gate tons carried and only about 8.2 per cent in the aggregate of ton- miles. 2. Case of Competition The railways' loss of express revenue in case of a parcel post Op- erated in competition with express companies may be estimated in the same form as for the case of a parcel-post monopoly. The volume of express traffic that would be transferred to a parcel post in case of competition has been estimated, as for IQ09, at about 40,000,000 pieces, aggregating 90,000,000 pounds, or 45,000 tons. Since this traffic is comprised of the pieces of lighter weight under II pounds and of those heavier pieces under II pounds that go the longer dis- tances, the average haul is certainly greater than that for all the traffic in pieces II pounds and less and much greater than that for the whole express traffic. For the latter it has been assumed as about 200 miles, and for the former about 275 miles." For the traffic now in question it must be about 350 miles. The ton-mileage of this transferred traffic may then be placed at about I5,750,000 ton-miles, as of 1909. At the average rate per ton-mile for the whole traffic, nearly 7.7 cents, the railway revenue from this traffic would be something over $1,215,000. The additional loss of revenue, due to a reduction of the revenue on the traffic remaining with the express companies, has been arrived at in the same manner as in the case of a monopoly. The initial factor in the computation is the aggregate of the charges on the 40,000,000 pieces that would be transferred to a parcel post. This may be com- puted on the basis of an estimate of the average charge on these pieces. These pieces would consist mainly of lighter parcels going all distances and a smaller number of heavier parcels going the longer distances. The average charge per package would then be something less than * See page 77. IO4 the average charge for all pieces under II pounds." It would prob- ably be about 32 cents. On the basis of that figure, these 40,000,000 pieces would produce a revenue, as of 1909, amounting to $12,800,000. Allowing 50 per cent of this to the railways, gives $6,400,000 as the amount of railway express revenue that would be lost with the trans- ference of this traffic to the parcel post. The aggregate railway ex- press revenue from the tonnage alone has been estimated at about $62,925,000 for 1909. The remaining revenue for the remaining ton- nage would then be about $56,525,000. The revenue based on weight and distance to be compared with this $56,525,000 may be computed thus: The volume of tonnage remaining after the transference of a part to the parcel post would be the actual aggregate tonnage of about 4,088,OOO tons less the 45,000 tons transferred to the parcel post, or about 4,043,000 tons. The ton-mileage of these 4,043,000 tons would * But the difference would not be very great, for the analyses made by the Interstate Commerce Commission show only a small difference between the average charge for the lightest pieces and that for all pieces within II pounds. This is shown in the accompanying table. The average weight of these 40,000,- OOO pieces was estimated at about 2.25 pounds. That is about the average weight of pieces 4 pounds and less according to the data in the table, for which the average charge was about 30.4 cents. But these 40 OOO,OOO packages include many up to II pounds in weight. To give the same average weight as pieces 4 pounds and less, there must be a compensating number of pieces under 4 pounds, of which the greater part must be under the average weight of 2.25 pounds. But the average charge for the lightest weight group is not as fºr below 30.4 cents as the average charge per piece over 4 pounds is above 30.4 cents. Therefore, the average charge for these 40,000,000 pieces would certainly be something over 30.4 cents. But as the average charge for all pieces within II pounds is only about 37.5 cents, the average charge for these 40,000,000 pieces would hardly be more than 32 cents. AVERAGE CHARGE FOR PIECES WITH IN DIFFFRENT WEIGHT GROUPS BY ADAMS AND UNITED STATES COMPANIES. Adams Company. United States Com- pany. Weight Group. Average Average Average Avera pe weight. charge. weight. charge. Pounds. Cents. | Pounds. Cents. 2 pounds and less . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - - - e º I 45 26.69 I .44 25. 49 Over 2 pounds, not over 4 pounds. . . . . . . . - e - e. 34.77 - - - - 36. I 2 4 pounds and less... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2. 29 30.39 2.3O 30.38 Over 4 pounds, not over 7 pounds. . . . . . . . * - - - 48.83 tº e º 'º 45.88 7 pounds and less. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3. 27 35.62 3.26 34.64 Over 7 pounds, not over I I pounds. . . . . . • * ~ * 5O. 32 - - - - 5 I. 97 II pounds and less. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.36 38.35 4.2O 37.4O IO5 be the ton-mileage of the whole traffic less that of the traffic trans- ferred to the parcel post, or about 801,850,000 ton-miles. At the ex- isting average rate of nearly 7.7 cents the revenue from this traffic in 1909, based on weight and distance, would amount to about $61,– 7IO,OOO. Therefore, the reduction in revenue on this traffic on account of the established percentage basis of payment and the character of the system of express charges would be, as of the year 1909, from $61,7IO,OOO to $56,525,000, or about $5,185,000. - A further reduction of railway express revenue from the remaining traffic would probably be caused by the reduction of express charges on pieces II pounds and under to meet the competition of the parcel post in certain cases. On the other hand, such a reduction of charges would develop additional traffic for which the railways would receive additional compensation. It may be assumed that this additional reve- nue would at least offset the loss of revenue on old business because of a reduction of charges. These items would then cancel each other. But the additional tonnage to be carried would not be offset by any reduction in old traffic. The loss of railway express revenue, as of 1909, would thus con- sist of two items, $1,215,000 and $5,185,000. Allowing for the in- crease of business since 1909 by raising these figures a correspond- ing percentage, the loss of revenue as of 191 I may be stated thus: $1,425,000, the present revenue from that part transferred to the parcel post, computed at the actual average rate per ton-mile re- ceived for the whole traffic; $6,090,000, the reduction on present revenues on the remaining part of the traffic, due to the effect of the established percentage basis of payment and the character of the scale of express charges. . The aggregate loss from both sources of railway express revenue, in case of a competitive parcel post, would then be about $7,515,000. This is equivalent to a reduction of about 1o per cent. The tonnage for which the remaining $56,525,000 of railway reve- nue would be received would be something more than the 4,043,000 tons, or 801,850,000 ton-miles, remaining after the transference of traffic to the parcel post. This is because, if express charges should be reduced to meet parcel-post competition, there would be an addi- tional express traffic developed by the reduction of the charges. The amount of this additional traffic may be estimated at about 55,000 tons 106 and 14,000,000 ton-miles." The aggregate express traffic for hauling which the railways would receive the $56,525,000 would then amount to 4,098,000 tons, or 815,850,000 ton-miles, as of 1909. Reducing this railway revenue for this service to a ton and a ton-mile basis, it would be equivalent to $13.79 per ton carried and 6.9 cents per ton-mile. These should be compared with the present average revenue per ton of $15.40 and per ton-mile of nearly 7.7 cents. The reduction amounts to about 10 per cent in the revenue per ton and about the same per cent in the revenue per ton-mile. BALANCE BETWEEN COMPENSATION, LOSS OF REVENUE, AND OTHER ITEMS It is now possible to bring together the various features and conse- quences of a parcel post and to draw up a rough balance between those that would be to the advantage of the railways and those that would be to their disadvantage. This may be done separately for a parcel post under a postal monopoly and for One Operated in competition with the express companies. I. Case of Monopoly The only advantage to be secured by the railways would be the increase in their mail pay for carrying about 343,125 tons, or about Io2,940,000 ton-miles, of parcel traffic. This increase of mail pay has been estimated for the case of a monopoly by a parcel post, with charges assumed to be 8 cents per pound, regardless of distance, at about $7,800,000. * The new business developed by a parcel post in express companies’ territory under competition has been estimated at about 56,250,000 pounds, or 28,125 tons, as of 1909. Since the parcel-post charges would have the advantage over express charges in competition chiefly for the longer distances, the average haul of this new business would probably be above the average haul for the whole parcel-post traffic. That was estimated at about 400 miles in the case of com- petition now under consideration. If the former be assumed to be 500 miles, the ton-mileage of the 28 125 tons of new parcel-post traffic in urban territory would be about 14,000,000 ton-miles, as of 1909. - The new traffic secured by express companies through a reduction of charges would, considering the comparative charges by express and parcel post on differ- ent weights and distances, consist of heavier pieces traveling shorter distances than those comprising the new traffic developed by parcel post. The volume of this new express traffic may then be assumed to be about twice the tonnage and about the same ton-mileage as the new business developed by parcel post in the Same territory. That would give about 55,000 tons and about 14,000,000 ton- miles as the volume in question. Io'7 The disadvantage to the railways that would accompany the institu- tion of a parcel post, such as is assumed in this study, would include several items. There would be a loss of express traffic, amounting to about 264,375 tons, or 72,700,000 ton-miles, in 1911. This would entail a loss of the railway revenue for the same year, accrued from this part of the traffic, amounting to about $5,580,000. There would be an additional loss of railway revenue in the reduction of the revenue from the re- maining traffic by about $16,670,000. The aggregate revenue of the railways from the express traffic would then be cut down by about $22,250,000, or something like 30 per cent. Taking into account the additional revenue in the form of mail pay for carrying parcels, amounting to $7,800,000, the total revenue from hauling the traffic in both the mail and express service would suffer a net decrease of about $14,450,000. This amounts to something more than IO per cent. The total tonnage of traffic in both the mail and express service would show a net increase equal to the excess of the parcel-post traffic Over the traffic lost from the express service. This would amount to about 78,750 tons, or 30,235,000 ton-miles." This is an increase in the combined ton-mileage of about 2 per cent. * - 2. Case of Competition In the case of a parcel post operated in competition with the express companies the items in the balance would be these: There would be an increase in mail pay for carrying the parcel traffic, which would amount to about I27,OOO tons, or 50,800,000 ton-miles. This increase in mail pay would be about $3,780,000. Over against this there would be a loss of railway express revenue due to the loss of a part Of the present express traffic to the parcel post. This loss of revenue would amount to about $1,425,000. There would be an additional loss in the reduction of the revenue from the remaining traffic by about $6,090,000. ‘The express traffic that would be lost under a parcel-post monopoly has been estimated at about 225,000 tons, as of 1909. For 1911, this should be increased to about 264,375 tons. At the estimated average haul of 275 miles for this part of the traffic, the ton-mileage, as of 1911, would be about 72,700,000 ton-miles. The parcel-post tonnage under a monopoly has been estimated (page 78) as about 343,125 tons, or IO2,937,500 ton-miles. This indicates an excess of parcel- post traffic over the business lost from the express traffic of about 78,750 tons or 30,235,000 ton-miles. - IO8 There would be a further reduction of revenue on present traffic within II pounds due to a reduction of charges to meet parcel-post competition. But it has been assumed that this would be about can- celed by the additional revenue from new traffic that would be devel- oped on such reduced charges. The aggregate revenue of the railways from their express traffic would then be reduced by the sum of the first two items, or $7,515,000. This is a reduction of about IO per cent. Taking into consideration the additional revenue in the form of mail pay for carrying parcels, amounting to $3,780,000, the total revenue from hauling the traffic in both the mail and express service would show a net decrease of about $3,735,OOO. This amounts to about 3 per cent. The total tonnage of traffic in both mail and express service would show a net increase amounting to about I 38,750 tons, or 48,74O,OOO ton-miles." The additional ton-mileage would amount to an increase of about 3 per cent in the aggregate railway transportation service for both mail and express. This is a larger increase than would occur in case of a monopoly. But in the present case of competition it is as- Sumed that the express companies would reduce their charges in certain cases to meet the parcel-post competition. That would greatly increase the total amount of new traffic to be developed by both parcel post and express. This would show itself in a larger aggregate of the com- bined traffic carried by both agencies. Conclusion The most important conclusion to be drawn from this study of the probable bearing of a parcel post on the interests of the railways may be briefly stated. If the parcel post is instituted as part of the present mail Service without any provision for compensation other than would accrue under the existing law, the railways would suffer a serious loss ‘The express traffic that would be lost under a competitive parcel post has been estimated, as of 1909, at 45,000 tons, or 15,750,000 ton-miles (page 103). Allowing for the increase in business, this should be raised to 52,875 tons, or 18,506,250 ton-miles, for 1911. The parcel-post traffic under competition has been estimated as about 127,000 tons, or 50,800,000 ton-miles, for 1911 (page 78). The net increase of the combined express and parcel-post traffic would then be about 74,125 tons, or 32,393,750 ton-miles. But to this should be added the new traffic developed by express companies under a reduction of charges to meet the parcel-post competition. This traffic was estimated at about 55,000 tons, or I4,000,000 ton-miles, as of 1909 (page 106). For 1911, it should be increased to 64,625 tons, or I6,450,000 ton-miles. This raises the net increase in the com- bined ºpress and parcel-post traffic to about 138,750 tons, or about 48,740,000 ton-mileS. IO9 of revenue and an appreciable increase in the service they would be called upon to perform. The discrepancy between the revenue from the parcel traffic hauled as mail and the revenue when it is hauled as express, it may reasonably be expected, will be reduced through the reductions in express charges by regulating bodies. But it is almost certain that it would not cease to be a very important amount. From the point of view of the railways' interests, this would be an argu- ment against the adoption of the parcel post. But, since the action of Congress will be influenced by other considerations besides that of the interests of the railways, another deduction follows from this proba- bility. If Congress should decide to institute a parcel post, then there would be ground on which the railways might present a claim for some form of compensation for the loss of revenue they would incur, espe- cially the loss, under established contracts, on the express traffic that would remain to them, and that notwithstanding a slight increase in their aggregate transportation service. I IO APPENDIX I. The Graphical Method Employed in Certain Estimates. The average weight of parcels under II pounds is not given in the data available for many countries. But in some cases data are given from which the average weight can be closely estimated by the use of a graphical method, or by diagrams. Before describing the process of this estimate, it may be well to give a brief explanation of the use of diagrams in general. So far as possible, mathematical terms and forms of expression are avoided and the explanation is made in more common forms of speech. This will doubtless jar the sense of those familiar with such descriptions in mathematical treatises, but it is felt that other readers will be better able to follow the reasoning if it is given in the manner adopted. Suppose there are IOO parcels of various weights ranging from I pound to 50 pounds. Let them be arranged in the order of their in- creasing weights. Now, draw two base lines, O X and O Y, at right angles to each other, as in diagram I. Let any convenient distance along O X represent one parcel. Then, by measuring off successively from O, as the zero point, along O X one hundred such distances in order, each of the IOO parcels can be represented along the base line O X by its respective distance; and any given number of the parcels, when they are all arranged in the order named, can be represented by a distance along O X equal to as many of these unit distances as the given number of the parcels. Thus the first ten parcels can be repre- sented by the distance from O to the point marked Io; the next seven- teen parcels can be represented by the distance between the points to and 27, and So on. Now, let any convenient distance along the base line O Y represent one pound. Then, by measuring off successively from O, as the zero point, along O Y a number of such distances, any given weight can be represented by a distance along O Y equal to as many of these unit distances as there are pounds in the weight. Thus, four pounds can be represented by the distance from O to the point 4; ten pounds by the distance from O to the point Io, and so on. Next, let the weight of each parcel be represented on the diagram by a perpendicular line, drawn from the base line O X, equal to the distance on O Y which represents the weight of the parcel. Thus, sup- pose the first parcel weighs one pound. Its weight will be represented I I I by the line from the point I on O X to w, . Suppose the thirteenth par- cel weighs four pounds; its weight can be represented by the line from the point I.3 on O X to wis. The last, or IOOth, parcel weighs 50 pounds. Its weight can be represented by the line from the point IOC to wroo, and so for all the other parcels. *- When all the perpendicular lines have been drawn, let their upper ends be connected by a curve from w; to woo. The figure thus ob- tained, inclosed by the lines O to IOO, IOO to woo, wigo to way is a graphical representation of some significant facts concerning the IOO parcels with which we started. The curve wi to woo pictures to the eye the exact relation between any given limit of weight and the num- Y Woo 30– Y as “” - º X - Dogrom /A O es- (2. a’ a tº /34 • W. &#. ~! r - X Oly"g" ºr T-72; T‘āz-T- l J —I T AOO DIAGRAM I ber of parcels within that limit. Thus, the number of parcels weigh- ing 8 pounds or less is shown to be 27, because the perpendicular line representing a weight of 8 pounds just fits in between the curve and the base line O X at a point on O X whose distance from O is equal to 27 unit distances. Also the number of parcels between 8 pounds and II pounds is shown to be IO, because the perpendicular lines representing 8 pounds and II pounds, respectively, just fit in between the curve and the base line O X at the points 27 and 37 whose distance apart is equal to IO unit distances. And So also for any other limits of weight and the respective number of parcels included within the limits. The curve is shown to bend upward. This indicates that, as the limit of weight increases, the number of parcels within the limit increases at a slower rate. That is, in the higher weights there are proportionately II 2 fewer parcels than in the lower weights. This corresponds to the actual case with the parcel traffic. The degree of curvature in the curve indicates the rate at which the number of parcels becomes pro- portionately smaller as higher and higher weights are considered. A second thing pictured to the eye by the diagram is the total weight of all parcels, or of any consecutive number of them. Suppose that, instead of representing the weight of each parcel by a perpendicular line, it is represented by a rectangle, as illustrated in the small section of the diagram drawn above on a larger scale and marked Diagram IA. The line from wi to woo, instead of being a curve, will then be in the form of a series of steps. Since each rectangle is drawn on a scale to represent the weight of the parcel for which it stands, the total weight of all the parcels will be represented by the sum of the rectangles. That is, the total weight will be represented by the area between the stepped line and the lines O to IOO and IOO to wroo. If, now, instead of IOO parcels there are IOO,OOO or IOO,OOO,OOO, the steps will become so small as to be indistinguishable to the eye, and the line will become virtually a curve, as first drawn; and the curve will start at a point virtually on the base line O Y, as at c, for example. Since the stepped line lies above the curved line, the total weight of all the parcels will, strictly speaking, be slightly greater than that indicated by the area between the curve and the other two lines bounding the diagram. But for all practical purposes the area included by the curve may be accepted as representing the total weight of all the parcels.” Also, instead of rep- resenting each parcel by a unit space along the base line O X, it will be more convenient to let each unit space represent I per cent of the total number of parcels. Any given number of parcels can be then repre- sented by reducing the number to a percentage of the total number and then measuring off on OX a distance to represent the percentage ascertained. It will now be seen that on the diagram is represented graphically the total weight of any given consecutive number of parcels. The total weight of the first I.3 per cent of all the parcels is represented accord- ing to scale by the area of that part of the figure lying between the curve from c to wis, and the lines at right angles, wis to 13, and 13 to O. Again, the total weight of all parcels under a given weight, as 8 pounds for example, is represented by the area included between the curve from c to w, (the point on the curve whose distance from the * If the number of parcels be conceived as infinite, the stepped line would be- COIſle a CLII VC, II3 base line O X represents just 8 pounds), and the lines at right angles war to 27, and 27 to O. One more item can be represented on the diagram, namely, the average weight of any given consecutive number of parcels. If the area that represents the total weight of the parcels in question be divided" by the length of the line along O X that represents the per- centage of all parcels to which the given number of parcels is equal, the quotient will be the distance along O Y that represents the average weight of all the parcels. Thus the average weight of the total number of parcels will be represented by a perpendicular distance equal to the area of the whole diagram divided by IOO. This average weight can be represented on the diagram as follows: Draw a line from a to aſ, parallel to the base line O X and at a distance from O X equal to the quotient just mentioned. The figure then included within the lines O to a, to a', to IOO and back to O, will have an area equal to that of the figure between the curve and the lines at right angles, whoo to IOO, to O. This must be so, because the area of each figure is equal to the distance O to 100 multiplied by the distance O to a. In this rectangular figure, the distance between the lines a to a', and O to IOO, represents the average weight. By comparing the distance found to represent the average weight with the Scale along O Y, the actual average weight in pounds will be shown. On the scale used in the diagram it is about 19.5 pounds. So, also, the average weight of all the parcels under any given weight can be represented on the diagram. For example, con- sider the average weight of all parcels under II pounds. From the point on O Y representing II pounds, according to the scale on which the diagram is drawn, draw a line parallel to the base line O X until it intersects the curve. From the point of intersection, war, draw a per- pendicular line, waſ to 37, to the base line O X. The distance from O to the point where this perpendicular line intersects O X will represent the percentage of all the parcels that are under II pounds in weight. The area included between the curve from c to waſ and the lines at right angle, waſ to 37, and 37 to O, will represent the total weight of all parcels under II pounds. Dividing this area by the distance from O to 37 will give the distance that represents the average weight of all parcels under II pounds. Comparing this distance with the scale along O Y, the actual average weight of these parcels in pounds will be shown. * The area of irregular figures can be accurately measured with an instrument called a planimeter. 8—R I 14 APPENDIX II. Estimate by Graphical Method of the Average Weight of Parcels II Pounds and Less in Germany and France. - Germany.—This graphical method of representing data can be used to estimate, from the statistics given, the average weight of parcels under 5 kilograms—equivalent to II pounds—carried in the German parcel post. The application of this method to the case in hand is as follows: The postal statistics for Germany, published in the Statistik der Deutschen Reichs-Post- und Telegraphenverwaltung, do not give the average weight of the parcels under 5 kilograms, or statistics from which that average can be computed. But data are there given showing the percentage of the total number of parcels that are under I kilo- gram, under 5 kilograms, under IO kilograms, and under 20 kilograms, respectively. The limit of weight is 50 kilograms. The average of these percentages for the last four years available, namely, 1905–1908, are as follows: Weight Class - Per cent of Total Under I kilogram I 2.68 “ 5 kilograms 82. O8 ‘‘ IO { { 98. O4 { { 2O { { 99 º 85 In diagram II the whole number of parcels is represented by the dis- tance from O to 50 on the base line O X. The percentage of parcels under I kilogram is represented by a proportionate distance from O to the point I; the percentage under 5 kilograms by a proportionate dis- tance from O to the point 5; the percentage under IO kilograms by a proportionate distance from O to the point IO; the percentage under 20 kilograms by a proportionate distance from O to the point 20. From the points I, 5, 10, 20, and 50 are drawn perpendicular lines represent- ing, and proportionate to, the respective weights to which the per- centages pertain. However, the line from point 50 to wºo is here broken to avoid a considerable extension up the page unnecessary for the present purpose. Through the upper ends of these perpendicular lines, namely, the points w1, wº, who, wao, and wºo, is drawn the curve from w to who in such a form as to represent the most probable num- ber of parcels for each of those weights for which the data are not given. On the left the curve is extended until it meets the line O Y. II.5 This is indicated at a. It will be observed that there is a very remark- able falling off in the number of parcels as the weight is increased. The area included within the lines O to a to w, to 5 and back to O represents the total weight of all parcels under 5 kilograms. Meas- uring this area with a planimeter, and dividing the area by the length M/so Q O DIAGRAM II of the line O to 5, gives the distance which represents the average weight of all these parcels under 5 kilograms. Comparing this distance with the scale to which the figure is drawn, the average weight of parcels under 5 kilograms—equivalent to II pounds—is found to be about 5.5 pounds. France.—This graphical method can be used for the same purpose in the case of France. No official postal statistics for France have been II6 available. But the Statistique des Chemins de Fer Français give the number of parcels in different weight classes carried by the French railways under the parcel-post laws. The latest data are for the year 1908. From these the percentages of parcels under different weights are found to be as follows: The limit of weight in France is IO kilo- grams, equivalent to 22 pounds, - Weight Class Per cent of Total Under 3 kilograms. 4I. 4O { { 5 i & 63 - 38 In diagram III the whole number of parcels is represented by the distance from O to Io along the base line O X. The percentage of parcels under 3 kilograms is represented by the proportionate distance from O to 3, and the percentage of parcels under 5 kilograms by the Wºo -áſ 3 ; so X DIAGRAM III - proportionate distance from O to 5. From the points 3, 5, and 10 are drawn perpendicular lines representing, and proportionate to, the re- spective weights to which the percentages pertain. The point a is located on the line O Y at a distance from O representing .25 kilo- grams, about one-half of a pound, on the arbitrary assumption that the smallest parcels are of about that weight. Through the points a, wa, w; and who is drawn, as before, a curve So as to represent the most probable variation in the number of parcels of other weights than those for which data are given. The area included within the lines O to a to w, to 5 and back to O then represents the total weight of par- cels under 5 kilograms. Dividing this area, as measured with a plani- meter, by the distance from O to 5, the distance representing the average weight is found. Comparing this with the scale on which the figure is drawn, gives as the estimate of the average weight about 5.25 pounds. I 17 APPENDIX III. Estimates by Graphical Method of Certain Characteristics of Ea'press Traffic under II-Pound Limit. The only data on the express traffic of the United States that is both accurate and comprehensive in its scope is that given in the first annual report of the Interstate Commerce Commission on Statistics of Express Companies. This data pertains to the months of April, Au- gust, and December, 1909. However, it gives none of the desired information concerning the traffic in parcels weighing II pounds and under. The lowest weight limit within which pieces of express matter are grouped is IOO pounds. For this weight group the only traffic data are the following: - Number of pieces, all weights, for the three months. . . . . . . . . . . . 7 I, O.I.3,295 { { { { “ , Ioo pounds and less, for the three months. . . . 67,469,488 Per cent which the number of pieces Ioo pounds and less is of the number of all pieces. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95. O I Total weight of all pieces, in pounds. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,329,342, I92 { { ‘‘ ‘‘ pieces, IOO pounds and less, in pounds. . . . . . . . . . I,725, 191,630 Per cent which the weight of pieces, Ioo pounds and less, is of - the weight of all pieces. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74. O6 Average weight of pieces, Ioo pounds and less, in pounds. . . . . . . 25.57 These data have no direct bearing on the questions concerning the traffic in pieces weighing II pounds or less. More direct and equally exact, but less comprehensive, data have been gathered by the Inter- state Commerce Commission in the investigation of express compa- nies. The business for one day each of the Adams Company and the United States Company was analyzed. By combining these two groups of data a curve has been constructed that represents the probable average characteristics of the whole express traffic for the year. In diagram IV, the distance from O to 95 is measured along O X to represent the proportion of all pieces comprised within the class weighing IOO pounds and less—that is, it represents 95 per cent of all the pieces. From the point 95, the perpendicular line from 95 to ºvoo was drawn to represent the weight IOO pounds. The curve from a to c was constructed as described in Appendix I so as to represent on the scale of this diagram the character of the traffic up to 15 pounds car- ried by the Adams Company on August 18, 1909. The curve from it to s was constructed so as to represent the character of traffic up to I5 pounds carried by the United States Company on December 22, I909. II8 p. now begin at some point on O Y that is at a distance above O propor- tionate to the weight of the lightest packages and should extend to the The curve that represents the character of the express traffic should The exact location and form of the curve was controlled WOO point wido. by the following conditions: / #-X DIAGRAM IV 6 O| I. The area included between the curve and the lines O to 95 and 95 to whoo must be such as to represent on the scale of the diagram the aggregate weight of all pieces IOO pounds and less. 2. The lower part of the curve must lie between the curves a to c and the curve u to s. This is because the day's business of the Adams Company was carried at a time of year when the proportion of light- II9 weight pieces is smallest, while the day's business of the United States Company was carried when that proportion is highest. The average proportion that is typical of a year's business must, therefore, be represented by a curve somewhere between these two. 3. While complying with the first two conditions, the curve must also have such a form and degree of curvature at its different parts as will represent the probable character of the whole traffic in pieces weighing IOO pounds and less. By drawing the curve in successive tentative locations and measur- ing the area of the resulting figure each time with a planimeter, it was finally constructed in the position shown by the heavy line in the dia- gram, which meets all three of the controlling conditions. The prob- able accuracy of the curve as representative of the actual character of the traffic may be tested by the following observations. If the lower part of the curve be drawn closer to the curve from a to c, then, in order to comply with the conditions as to area, the remainder of the curve must assume some such form as that of the dotted line from c to zºnoo. But it then violates the third condition, as to the probability of the character of traffic it represents. Similarly, the lower part of the curve cannot be drawn much closer to the line from u to s without violating the same condition in another way. Having thus located the curve, a line e 6 was then drawn parallel to the base line O X and at a distance from it that represented II pounds. From the intersection of the line e é with the curve at w, a perpen- dicular line was drawn to the base line O X. The distance of the point of intersection p from O gave the percentage of the total num- ber of pieces that was comprised within the group weighing II pounds and less. This percentage was found to be 40.5 per cent." * The possibility of error in this percentage lies (a) in judging of the proper relative distance of the lower part of the curve from the line a to c on the one hand and the line u to s on the other; and (b) in judging of the proper form of the curve throughout its length. As to the first source of error, the curve should doubtless lie much nearer to the line a to c than to the line it to s, because the proportion of light-weight packages in August certainly departs much less from the average proportion for the year than does the proportion on a day so near to Christmas as the 22d of December. But the relative approach of the curve to the line a to c should not be as great in the diagram as the above consideration would indicate, because of a qualification to the data on which were based the lines repre- senting the business of the two companies. In analyzing the business of the two companies, the Interstate Commerce Commission was unable to as- certain the weight of a small proportion of the pieces. Some of these pieces certainly were under 15 pounds, and even under II pounds. Therefore, the I 20 The aggregate weight, also, of express pieces II pounds and less was estimated from the diagram as follows: The area of the figure enclosed by the lines O to b to w to p and back to O represents, on the scale of the diagram, the aggregate weight of pieces II pounds and less. Comparing this area with that of the whole figure gives the per- centage of the aggregate weight of pieces IOO pounds and less Com- prised in those weighing II pounds and less. This was found to be 7.42 per cent. Since the aggregate weight of the pieces weighing IOO pounds and less was ascertained by the Interstate Commerce Com- mission to be 74.06 per cent of the total weight of all traffic, the weight of pieces II pounds and less may be placed at about 5.5 per cent of the total weight of all traffic. The average weight of parcels II pounds and less may be esti- mated directly from the diagram, or from the aggregate number and weight of such pieces as found by applying the above percentages to the data published by the Interstate Commerce Commission. By either method, the average weight appears as slightly under 4.5 pounds. s When the curves for the Adams and United States Companies are constructed on the basis of the percentage distribution of pieces II pounds and less over the different weights under II pounds, it is found that the two curves nearly overlap. By drawing a composite curve between the two, and allowing for the qualification of the data, as stated in the foregoing note, there was obtained a more probable representation of this percentage distribution for the whole year's business than is afforded by the curve for either of the two companies alone. From this curve the percentage distribution of all parcels within II pounds over the different weights under II pounds may be esti- mated by measurements. curyes as drawn for the two companies, do not represent as many pieces of the higher weights up to II or 15 pounds as were actually carried. In other words, the upper part of these curves do not lie as far to the right as they should in order to be truly representative of the actual business carried within the weights to which they pertain. The location of the point zv should then be at a greater relative distance from the line a to c than would be indicated by one’s judgment of the relative position that the average yearly proportion of pieces within II pounds holds between the proportions prevailing on the two days in question. With respect to the second possible source of error, it can be shown that the distance of the point v from the line O Y cannot be altered by even as little as five per cent without entailing such a change in the form of the curve, in compliance with the condition as to area, as to render it improbable as repre- senting the character of the traffic. - I2 I These estimates of the various characteristics of the express traffic within II pounds, as obtained by the graphical method, may be sum- marized as follows: -- Summary of Data Obtained by Graphical Method Per cent of all pieces of express matter comprised in the parcels weighing II pounds and less . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.5 per cent. Per cent of aggregate weight of all express matter comprised in parcels weighing II pounds and less. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 “ “ Average weight of parcels II pounds and less. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 pounds. Relative number of parcels in each weight group within the limit of 11 pounds: Per cent of Parcels Weight Group II pounds and less Not Over I pound . . . . . . . . . . I2.5 Over I, but ‘‘ ‘‘ 2 pounds . . . . . . I9.5 “ 2, º ‘‘ ‘‘ 3 “ . . . . . . . . . . I3.5 “ 3, “ “ “ 4 “ . . . . . . . . . . II ... O { { “ 4, & & . . 5 “ . . . . . . . . . . 9. O { { 5, & $ 6 “ . . . . . . . . . . 8.o { { { { ’ A 6 { { 7 " . . . . . . . . . . 7. O { { 7, { { { { { 8 “ . . . . . . . . . . 6. O { & . y º . º 9 º * * * * * * * * * * 5. O tº 9, . IO . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 { { IO, { { { { II { { 4. O I OO . O I22 APPENDIX IV. Estimate by the Graphical Method of the N umber of Pieces of Fourth- class Mail Above One-half Pound and Above One Pound. The graphical method of calculation may be applied to available data for fourth-class mail to deduce the percentage of such mail within given weight limits. According to the report of the Post Office De- partment on the Special Weighing of the Mails in 1907, a record was kept of the number of pieces and the weight of the various classes of mail for seven days from October 12 to October 19, 1907. From the summary of the tabulation of these data, on pages 32 and 33 of the report, it appears that there were 2,597,700 pieces of fourth-class mail, aggregating 821,452 pounds. These data show that the average weight per piece was 5,0595 ounces. The limit of weight for fourth-class mail is 4 pounds. The smallest weight charged for is one ounce. In diagram V, these data, with that for the average weight, are used, as in the case of the data on the ex- press traffic, to locate a curve which represents the probable relation between the number of pieces of such mail and different weights. However, the form of this curve is seen to depart so widely from the usual form for parcel traffic that the same assurance of its approxi- mate accuracy cannot be felt as in the case of the curve for express traffic. - Accepting it as it is, the line w, to w', was drawn, parallel to O X and at a distance from O X which represents one-half of a pound. From the point of intersection with the curve at wº, a perpendicular line was drawn to the line OX, which it meets at the point p, The dis- tance from O to the point p, thus represents the percentage of pieces of fourth-class mail under one-half of a pound, and the distance p’% to 100 represents the percentage of pieces over one-half of a pound. Simi- larly the line w, to w,' was drawn at a distance from O X, representing one pound, and the perpendicular w, to p, was dropped to the line O X, which it meets at the point py. The distance from O to p, repre- sents the percentage of pieces under one pound, and the distance from p, to IOO represents the percentage of pieces over one pound. Com- paring these distances with the scale on which the figure was drawn, the percentages indicated are found to be about as stated below. For the use of the Commission on Second-Class Mail Matter the Post Office Department made some estimates which were submitted to the Commission under the title, Cost of Transporting and Handling the Several Classes of Mail Matter, etc. In a published pamphlet of these estimates, the number of pieces of fourth-class mail during the I23 fiscal year 1907-1908 is placed at something over 186,090,000.” On the basis of that figure, the number of pieces of fourth-class mail by different weights in the fiscal year 1907-1908 were about as here W., Y l MV, W, * W W4’ (2 a " Ç – Tº - O /24 AE, roo DIAGRAM V given : ...! Number. Pieces of fourth-class mail under one-half pound 89 I65,62O, ooo { { { { 4 4 { { { { OVer { { ( ; & 4 II 2O,47O,OOO { { { { { { & 4 { { under Olle { { 95 I76.790, Ooo { { & 4 ( { { { { { OVer { { ( 5 # 9,300,000 *Supplemental statement on behalf of the Post Office Department at the hearings of the Commission on Second-Class Mail Matter, separately pub- lished. I9 II, p. IO. * H24 APPENDIX V. Subsidiary Estimates Entering Into the Estimate of the Volume of the Merchandise Class of Erpress Traffic that Would Find Parcel- Post Charges Lower than Present Earpress Charges. Proportion of merchandise II pounds and less, under base rates $3.00 and less, that would find the parcel-post charges lower than express charges.—The proportion of merchandise express traffic under II pounds, moving on base rates of $3.00 and less, that would find the parcel-post charges usually proposed, namely, 8 cents a pound, lower than present express charges has been estimated as follows: Merchandise is charged for according to weight and distance, but at an increasing rate per pound for lighter packages. The charge is pre- ...scribed in the following manner: Between any two points there is a fixed rate per hundred pounds, called the base rate. These base rates range from $O.40 a hundred up to $13.50 a hundred between any two points in the continental territory of the United States, except Alaska. These base rates usually vary with distance as the main determi- nant. For packages weighing less than a hundred pounds, there is, under each base rate, a graduated scale of charges for pack- ages of different weights, but the minimum charge in 3ry cases is 25 cents. The charges prescribed by this graduated scale rest mainly on the fact that the cost of collecting, transporting, and de- livering the smaller packages decreases less rapidly than the weight of the package. That is, since the actual cost per pound in- creases as the weight of the package decreases, the charge is so graduated according to weight as to make the actual payment per pound increase more nearly in accordance with the increase in the cost per pound. - The merchandise express charges, thus determined, for different weights up to II pounds under different base rates have been com- pared with the proposed charges by parcel post. This comparison is given in the table on pages 126 and 127. It will be observed that for any given distance, as expressed by the base rate, there is a certain weight below which the parcel-post charge is lower than the express charge and above which the express charge is lower than the parcel-post charge. To aid in locating this point on the table, 125 a line has been placed under the two charges compared which are nearest to equality. From this table it will be seen that when the points between which the shipment is to be made are subject to a base rate of $o.40 a 100 pounds, the parcel-post charges would be less than the express charges for parcels not over three pounds in weight, but over that weight the express charges would be less than the postal charges. - - º A similar comparison under each of the successive base rates shows that as the base rate increases the parcel-post charge would be the cheaper for more and more of the higher weights until, when the base rates of $2.75 and $3.00 are reached, the parcel-post charges would be less than the express charge for any weight except IO pounds, for which it is equal to the express charge. And, of course, this would be true also for all greater distances which would be subject to corre- spondingly higher base rates. Before comparing the total number of cases in which the express charges are cheaper with the total cases in which the parcel-post charges are cheaper, it will be necessary to take account of the fact that the number of parcels seeking transportation is not the same for all weights or the same for all base rates. This can be done by giving each case under comparison a weight in the calculation equal to the relative number of parcels carried at the weight and at the base rate pertaining to that case. The relative number of parcels now carried at different weights under II pounds has been estimated in connection with the estimate of the amount of present express business under II pounds." The relative number of parcels II pounds and less carried on the different base rates within $3.OO has been estimated on the basis of data in the Interstate Commerce Commission's analysis of the one day's business for the Adams Company and the United States Com- pany. 'See Appendix III. Can the average distribution in the Appendix referred to be assumed to be the same when the base rate is $0.40 as when it is $1.00? or $2.007 or any other amount? It is probable that the relative numbers corre- sponding to the heavier packages would be larger on the lower base rates, and vice versa. But as there is no data to indicate how much the difference would be and as it is believed that the differences would not be very great within the limit of $3.00, which pertains to this part of the calculation, these percentages were used as indicating the relative number of pieces of different weights for all the base rates. It is seen that there is a concentration of parcels in the lower weights. Therefore, when this distribution is taken into account in computing the division of traffic between express and parcel post, a somewhat larger per- centage of the whole will be assigned to the parcel post. 126 COMPARISON OF MERCHANDISE EXPRESS Weight of parcel. Base Rate $o.40 Base Rate $o.5o Base Rate $o.60 Base Rate $o.75 Ex- || Parcel | Ex- || Parcel | Ex- Parcel Fx- || Parcel press | Post press | Post press | Post press | Post Not over I lb. . . . . . . . . . . . . . $.25 || $.08 || $.25 || $.08 || $.25 || $.08 || $.25 $.o8 Over 1 lb., not over 2 lbs..j .25 | . 16 | .25 | . 16 | .25 | . 16 | .30 | . I6 “ 2 lbs., “ “ 3 “ . 25 .24 .25 . 24 . 25 . 24 .3O | . 24 “ 3 “ “ “ 4 “ . 25 | -32 | . 25 | .32 .3O | .32 .3O | .32 “ 4 “ “ “ 5 “ . 25 .4O | . 25 | . 4O | .3O | . 40 | .35 .4O “ 5 “ “ “ 6 “ .30 | .48 .30 | .48 . 35 .48 | .35 .48 “ 6 “ “ “ 7 “ .30 .56 | .30 | .56 .35 | .56 | .35 | .56 “ 7 “ “ “ 8 “ . 3O .64 .30 .64 | .35 .64 .4o .64 “ 8 “ “ “ 9 “ . 3O . 72 . 3O .72 . 35 . 72 .4O .72 “ 9 “ “ “ Io “ . 3O .8o . 3O .8o . 35 .8O . 4O .8o º Io “ ‘‘ ‘‘ II “ . 3O .88 . 3O .88 . 35 .88 .4O .88 Weight of parcel. Base Rate $1.40 Base Rate $1.50 Base Rate $1.60 Base Rate $1.75 i., |*::::" ..., |*::::" ..., |*::::" . . ." Not over 1 lb............. $.25 || $.o8 $.25 || $.o8 || $.25 || $.08 || $.25 || $.08 Over 1 lb., not over 2 lbs...] .30 . I6 | .30 . I6 . 3O . I6 | . 30 | . I6 “ 2 lbs., “ “ 3 “ . 35 . 24 .35 . 24 . 4O . 24 .4O . 24 “ 3 “ “ “ 4 “ .4O . 32 .4O . 32 .45 . 32 .45 . 32 “ 4 “ “ “ 5 “ .45 . 4O .45 .4O . SO . 4O .5O .4O { { 5 * “ 6 “ .5O 48 .5O .48 . 55 .48 . 55 .48 “ 6 “ “ “ 7 “ .5O .56 .5O .56 . 55 .56 . 55 .56 “ 7 “ “ “ 8 “ . 55 .64 . 55 .64 .6O .64 .6o .64 “ 8 “ “ “ 9 “ . 55 . 72 . 55 . 72 .6o . 72 .6o . 72 “ 9 “ “ “ ſo “ . 55 .8o . 55 .8o .6o .8o .6o .8O “ Io ‘‘ ‘‘ ‘‘ II “ .60 | .88 .60 | .88 .65 .88 .65 .88 127 AND PROPOSED PARCHI, POST CHARGES. Base Rate $o 90 Base Rate $1.oo Base Rate $1. Io Base Rate $1.25 Weight of parcel. Ex- || Parcel | Ex- || Parcel | Ex- || Parcel | Ex- Parcel press | Post press | Post press | Post press | Post $.25 $. O8 || $.25 || $. o8 || $.25 || $. O8 $.25 sos Not Over I 1b. .30 | . I6 .30 | . I6 .30 | . 16 3O . I6 || Over I 1b., not over 2 lbs. .30 | . 24 .30 .24 .35 | .24 .35 | . 24 || “ 2 lbs., “ “ 3 “ . 35 | .32 | . 35 | .32 | .35 | .32 | .35 | .32 “ 3 “ “ “ 4 “ 46 . 40 .4O .4O .4O .4O .4O .4O “ 4 “ “ “ 5 “ .4o .48 .40 .48 | .45 .48 .45 .48 “ 5 “ “ “ 6 . 4O .56 .4O .56 . 45 .56 .45 .56 º 6 * * “ “ 7 “ .45 .64 .45 .64 . 50 .64 .5O .64 “ 7 “ “ “ 8 .45 . 72 . 45 . 72 .5O . 72 | .50 . 72 “ 8 “ “ “ 9 “ .45 .8o .45 .8O .5O .8o .5O .8O “ 9 “ “ “ Io “ .45 .88 .45 . 88 . 55 .88 . 55 .88 “ Io “ “ “ II Base Rate $2.25 Base Rate $2.75 Base Rate $2.00 Base Rate $2.50 or $3.00 i. *.*|†, *...*|†: |*.*|†, "ji" $.25 $.08 || $.25 $.08 || $.25 || $.08 || $.25 || $.o8 . 35 . I6 .35 . I6 . 35 . I6 . 35 . I6 .45 | . 24 | .45 . 24 .45 . 24 .45 . 24 .5O . 32 . 55 . 32 . 55 . 32 .6o . 32 .55 .40 | .60 | .40 .60 | .40 | .65 .40 .60 .48 .70 | .48 .70 | .48 .75 | .48 .6o .56 .7O .56 .7O .56 . 75 .56 . 70 .64 . 75 .64 .75 .64 .8o .64 .70 | .72 | .75 | . 72 | .75 | .72 .80 | . 72 .7O .8O . 75 .8O . 75 .8o .8O .8O .75 .88 .85 .88 .85 .88 .90 .88 Weight of parcel. Not over I 1b Over I lb., not over 2 lbs. 2 lbs., “ ( { 4 5 6 7 8 9 3 IO II ( & & 4 I28 When each case under comparison is weighted in accordance with the distribution of traffic by weights of parcels and in accordance with the distribution by base rates, the total number of cases may be com- puted in which the parcel-post charges would be lower than the ex- press charges for the same weight and distance and a similar total for the opposite conditions, also. The comparison of these totals shows that about 66 per cent of the parcels and about 42 per cent of the weight of present merchandise express traffic under II pounds mov- ing on base rates of $3.00 and less would find the parcel-post charges less than the present express charges. The corresponding percentages in favor of express charges are 34 per cent of the parcels and 58 per cent of the weight. Proportion of all merchandise II pounds and less that moves on base rates of $3.00 and less.--These percentages refer to express traffic under II pounds, classed as merchandise, and taking base rates not over $3.00. It remains to relate them to the total of such mer- chandise traffic under I I pounds moving on all base rates. It appears from the Interstate Commerce Commission’s exhibits in the express investigation that probably from 80 to 85 per cent of the packages of all weights in all classes of traffic, and something over 90 per cent of their aggregate weight, moves on base rates of $3.OO or less." It is found also that the merchandise class of traffic has a longer haul than the average for all classes; so that the proportion of pack- ages of merchandise class that move on base rates of $3.00 and less must be smaller than these percentages. It appears further that the Smaller packages have a longer haul than the average for all weights; so that the proportion of merchandise traffic under II pounds that moves on base rates of $3.00 and less is still further below these per- centages. It is not possible to ascertain how much less, but the pro- portion may be set at about 75 per cent of the number of pieces and about 80 per cent of the weight. That is to say, 66 per cent of 75 per cent of the number and 42 per cent of the 80 per cent of the weight of the present merchandise traffic of express companies under II pounds would tend to be transferred to the parcel post if the question of charges alone determined the choice. Simplifying these percent- ages, we have about 49 per cent of the number and 34 per cent of the weight. This proportion includes only the traffic moving on rates of ‘For the Adams Company it was 80.49 per cent of the pieces and 90.41 per cent of the weight. For the United States Company it was 85.52 per cent of the pieces and 93.98 per cent of the weight. I29 $3.00 and less. To it should be added that remaining part which takes rates over $3.00, for it has been seen that in all such cases the par- cel-post charge would be the lower. Since the II-pound express traffic under $3.00 has been set at 75 per cent of the pieces and 80 per cent of the weight of the total II-pound traffic, this remaining traffic Over $3.00 will be 25 per cent of the pieces and 20 per cent of the weight. Adding these to the percentages already obtained for packages within the $3.00 base rate, the above results will be increased from 49 per cent to 74 per cent of the number, and from 34 per cent to 54 per cent of the weight. The conclusion now reached is that, of all the merchandise express traffic under II pounds in 1909, 74 per cent of the number of pieces and about 54 per cent of the weight would find lower charges by parcel post. Proportion of all traffic II pounds and less comprised in the mer- chandise class.-The proportion of all classes of traffic under II pounds in weight that is comprised in the merchandise class has been estimated on the following data. From the results of the investigation by the Minnesota Sailroad and Warehouse Commission into the busi- ness of Wells Fargo and Company touching that State, it appears that the merchandise class of traffic comprised about 85 per cent of the * The number of parcels under II pounds is not directly shown by the returns. The data given can be compiled so as to show the number of parcels under Io pounds and the number under I5 pounds. Trom these, the number under II pounds can be estimated by interpolation. However, these data according to dif- ferent weights do not include section matter for which the data is given only in totals. The figures used in the text were obtained as here indicated. First as to intrastate business. Number of parcels, omitting section matter, under IO pounds. . . . . . . . 29,880 Number of parcels, omitting section matter, under I5 pounds. . . . . . . . ... 35,800 Estimated number of parcels, omitting Section matter, under II pounds. 31,080 Section D and E matter, considered as all under II pounds. . . . . . . . . . . 2,517 Sixty per cent of section A matter, considered as under II pounds. . . . . 226 Total parcels under II pounds. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33,823 The number of parcels of merchandise, taking regular graduated charges, under Io pounds in weight was 27,892; the number under I5 pounds was 32,615. The number under II pounds is estimated to be 28,850, which is something over 85 per cent of the above estimated number of all classes of parcels under II pounds. The estimates for all business touching the state was made as here summarized. Number of parcels, omitting section matter, under IO pounds. . . . . . . . . I46,086 Number of parcels, omitting section matter, under I5 pounds. . . . . . . . . I69,488 Estimated number of parcels, omitting section matter, under II pounds. I50,800 Section D and E matter, considered as all under II pounds. . . . . . . . . . . . 45,081 Sixty per cent of section A matter, considered as under II pounds. . . . 2,380 Total parcels under II pounds. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . • * * * * * * * * * * 198,261 The number of parcels of merchandise taking regular graduate charges is not 9—R I 30 total pieces of all classes in the intrastate business and about 73 per cent of the total pieces in all business touching the State. The Interstate Commerce Commission's analysis of the business for one day by the Adams Company and the United States Company show that, of the traffic under II pounds carried by these companies, 81. I9 per cent of the pieces carried by the Adams Company and 84.89 per cent of the pieces carried by the United States Company took regular graduated merchandise charges. The analysis made by the Adams Company of its business forwarded from 16 offices during the six days from August I4 to 19, 191 I, shows that probably about 83 per cent of all pieces under II pounds was of the merchandise class.” On the bases of these data, one may accept 83 per cent as the pro- portion of the whole traffic in pieces under II pounds that is com- prised in the merchandise class. Average weight of merchandise packages II pounds and less.- The average weight of merchandise pieces under II pounds has been estimated as follows: The average weight of all classes of traffic under II pounds has been estimated at something less than 4.5 pounds. But the average weight of merchandise packages is above this average for all classes. - - The analysis by the Adams Express Company of its business for- warded from 16 offices during August 14 to 19, 1911, shows that the merchandise packages under II pounds had an average weight of 4.7 pounds. The analyses by the Interstate Commerce Commission of One day's business each for the Adams Company and the United States Company shows that pieces under II pounds taking the regular grad- uated merchandise charges had an average weight of 4.64 pounds for segregated from other parcels. In the case of the intrastate traffic, the merchan- dise traffic under IO pounds was 90 per cent of all traffic under Io pounds, omit- ting section matter. Considering that the intrastate business under Io pounds included many shipments of laundry, general Specials and other short-haul traffic that would not be found in the same proportion in all traffic touching the state, and considering that the 90 per cent applied to traffic under only Io pounds instead of traffic under II pounds, it may be assumed that not less than 145,000 out of the 150,800 parcels under II pounds, omitting section matter, were merchandise taking regular graduated rates. This amounts to something over 73 per cent of the esti- mated number of all parcels under II pounds. * The ascertained number of pieces of merchandise under II pounds was 86. Io per cent of the sum of pieces of such merchandise and the pieces of sec- tions D and E matter, which are practically all under II pounds. Since there were certainly some pieces in other classes under II pounds, this percentage is in excess of the real proportion for the whole traffic. These “other classes” amounted to 4.30 per cent of the aggregate for the Adams Company and 2.49 per cent for the United States Company. If these “other classes” be allowed for, the percentage will be in the neighborhood of 83 per cent. I31 the Adams Company and 4.46 for the United States Company. Since the actual average weight for these companies would be affected by conditions peculiar to the period of the year when the day's business was done, a better guide would be the ratio of the average weight of merchandise pieces to the average weight of all classes of parcels. These ratios are IO6.4 per cent for the Adams Company and IO6.2 per cent for the United States Company. For the one week's business of the Adams Company in August, IQII, the average weight of the mer- chandise pieces was IO7.7 per cent of the average weight of the mer- chandise and sections D and E together, which was 4.36 pounds. But this ratio is somewhat higher than it should be, for the average weight of 4.36 would be greater if certain heavier pieces, amounting to prob- ably 3 or 4 per cent of the total, were included with the merchandise and sections D and F matter. - If the ratio of IO6 per cent be adopted and applied to the estimated average weight of all pieces under II pounds in 1909, namely, 4.45 pounds, the average weight of merchandise pieces may be placed at about 4.7 pounds. - I32 APPENDIX VI. Method of Estimating Railway Compensation for Parcel-Post Traffic. The steps in the method of estimating the probable compensation for carrying parcels, referred to on page 87, are described in the fol- lowing account. - The first step was to estimate the average per cent of increase in the daily weight of mail carried on the various mail routes resulting from the addition of the parcels to the mail. The percentage increase on any given route depends on two factors, namely, the percentage by which the parcels will increase the weight of mail, and the comparative distance parcels will be carried on the route relative to the present haul of mail. If the parcels increase the weight by 50 per cent but are hauled only half the distance mail is carried, the average daily weight over the whole route will be increased only 25 per cent. Each of these factors will vary considerably from route to route. But, since it would be impracticable to estimate their value for each route in order to com- pute the increase in the average daily weight and the additional com- pensation", it must be assumed that the average of all routes holds for each one individually. With respect to the first factor, the increase in weight of mail,- the percentage of increase in the total weight of the mails on account of parcels cannot be directly ascertained because of lack of data on the present weight of the mails. The Post Office Department has estimated the weight of the mails for the fiscal year 1908.” But there is no estimate for subsequent years. However, some idea of the present weight can be had from a comparison of the annual compensa- tion for transporting the mails. After allowing for the gradual in- troduction of the new divisor in computing the average daily weights on the mail routes,” it appears that the annual pay for transportation * See note I, p. 86. * See estimates of the cost of transporting and handling the mail in the Sup- plemental statement on behalf of the Post-Office Department in the hearings of the Commission on Second-Class Mail Matter, 1911. * Formerly, in ascertaining the daily average of weight carried, Sundays were not counted in the number of days by which the total weight for the whole weighing period was divided in order to obtain the average weight per day. Since 1907 Sundays have been included. The effect has been to reduce by one- seventh the resulting average for one day. The compensation computed on the average has been accordingly reduced. The country is divided into four geo- graphical sections, each of which is weighed in turn every four years. As the I33 would have increased I2.7 per cent from the fiscal year 1908 to the fiscal year 1911, if there had been no change in the factors affect- ing the amount of that pay. In the spring of 191 I a second weighing with the new divisor was made for the first time in weighing Sec- tion 3. On the basis of the two comparable weighings in this section, the annual compensation for transporting mails in section 3 increased II.7 per cent in the four years." Since the rate of pay increases less rapidly than the average daily weight, the latter must have increased during the period from 1908 to 191 I something more than the fore- going percentages. Assume that it increased 18 per cent.” Further, since there was probably no appreciable change in the average distance mail was carried, this increase in the average daily weight may be ascribed to the increase in the total weight of the mail. The Post Office Department estimated the weight of mail matter, not including equipment, transported on railways in the fiscal year 1908 to have been 583,700 tons.” The weight transported in the fiscal year 1911 would then be about 688,750 tons. The estimated weight of parcel-post traffic as of 191 I, in the case assuming a postal monopoly, was 343,125 tons. The percentage increase in the weight of mail on account of the parcels, the first factor in the increase of average daily weight, would thus be almost 50 per cent. With respect to the second factor in the average daily weight, the element of distance,—the average haul of parcel-post parcels in case of new divisor was not introduced into the computation of the mail pay for any section until the regular weighing recurred, the total annual pay for transporta- tion for the whole country is not comparable year by year for the four years during which the new divisor was being introduced into all four sections. In the comparison in the text, the annual pay for transportation was put on the basis of the old divisor in order to make the two years comparable. Thus— Annual rate of pay, 1907-8. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $44,722,985.47 Additional pay on basis of Cld divisor. . . . . . . . . . . I,787,378. Io Annual rate of pay on basis of old divisor. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $46,510,363.57 Annual rate of pay, 191O-II. . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46,172,472.93 Additional pay on basis of old divisor. . . . . . . . . . . 4,94 I,940. 34 Annual rate of pay on basis of old divisor. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $5I, II4,413. 27 Per cent increase, when computed on basis of old divisor, 1910-II over 1907–8, I2.7. - * Report of Post Office Department for 1911, page 123. - * This assumption is justified by the results of the estimates of the increase in transportation pay for the estimated 1ncrease in daily weight on account of parcels. See pages #4+ and #42. * 1,167,401,340 pourids. Supplemental statement to hearings of the Commis- sion on Second-Class Mail, 1911, p. 14. I34. a postal monopoly has been estimated as about 300 miles. The average haul of all mail matter is something over 600 miles." The average haul of parcels would thus probably be about half the present average haul of mail. Combining both factors in the problem, the average daily weight of mail on the various routes in case of a governmental monopoly of par- cels would be increased by reason of the parcel traffic by about 25 per cent. This percentage of increase will be assumed in the remaining steps of the estimate of probable compensation. t In case of a parcel post in competition with express companies, the per cent of increase in average daily weight was estimated at 12 per cent. The volume of parcel-post traffic in this case was estimated at about 127,000 tons, as of 1911. This would increase the weight of mail in that year, namely, 688,750 tons, by something Over 18 per cent. The average haul of parcels under competition was estimated at about 400 miles, which is two-thirds of the present average haul of all mail matter. The increase in the average daily weight of mails on account of the parcel traffic in case of competition would then be about 12 per Cent. & The average per cent of increase in the average daily weight of mail being ascertained, the next step is to estimate the probable additional mail pay for this increase in weight. In order to avoid an unjustifiable amount of computation 1m making the estimate, the mail routes were classified, according to their average daily weight, into twenty-three groups. For each of these groups a closely approximate estimate was made of the probable per cent of increase in the total compensation which would accrue to the routes in the group. This per cent of in- crease was then applied to the present actual compensation for the group in order to ascertain the increased compensation when the par- cel traffic was included. By combining these estimates for the several groups, the probable compensation for transportation of the mail, in- cluding parcels, and the probable additional compensation assignable to the parcels, was found in the aggregate for all the routes in each of the nine weight classes of routes” and for the country as a whole. * The average haul.of different classes of mail matter was estimated in the special weighing of the mails of 1907. (See report, 1908, p. 58.) Combining these with the Post Office Department's estimate of the total weight in the various classes of mail as given in the supplemental statement to the Commis- sion on Second-Class Matter, p. 14, shows an average haul of 610 miles. “The law prescribes different rates of pay for different classes of routes, based on the average daily weight carried over them. As at present amended, I35 In order that the method of the estimate may be more clearly re- vealed, a condensed outline of the working procedure is given in the accompanying table on page 138. The estimate of the per cent of in- crease in the compensation for any group of routes is determined by an estimate of the per cent of increase in the average rate of pay per mile for all the routes in the group. The method of estimating this increase in the average rate per mile requires that all the routes in the group be subject to the same scale of additional payment for inter- mediate increments of weight. Accordingly, in arranging the groups of routes, account has to be taken of the fact that the heavier routes in each weight class would, with the added weight of parcels, pass into the next higher class and, in some cases, have their actual rate of pay computed on the basis of a different scale for intermediate weights. Uniformity in the scale of pay within each group was secured by SO dividing each weight class into two groups of routes that one group included all the routes which, with parcels added, would remain in their present weight class, while the other group included those routes that, with parcels added, would pass into the next higher weight class. All the routes in the former group would be subject to the same com- mon scale of additional pay both before the addition of the weight of the rates of pay prescribed in the law are as shown in the accompanying Statement : 200 pounds average daily weight, $42.75 per mile. 500 64. I2 I OOO { { { { & & { { 85 50 & 4 & & y - g I,500 § { 4 & º { { IO6.87 º { { 2,000 { { 4 * { { { { I28.25 & & C { { { § { ( & & 3,500 § { & { { { { I49.62 . º 5,000 { ſº I71. Oo { { Each 2,000 pounds over 5,000 pounds * - up to 48,000 pounds. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.30 “ ( & Each 2,000 pounds over 48,000 pounds I9.24 “ { { But the classification of routes that is actually used has slightly different, although equivalent, boundary weights to designate the limits of the different classes. This variation from the weights named in the law can be better explained after noting the manner in which the specified rates of pay are applied to actual weights. It has been the practice to allow additional pay for addi- tional intermediate weight between the class limits prescribed in the law in proportion to the amount of additional weight carried. The actual rate of pay on any route is thus the rate of pay as specified by law, plus an amount de- termined by the additional intermediate weight. The method of determining this additional pay is to take the aggregate possible intermediate weight between any two classes and oreak this aggregate into increments. For each whole increment of weight, in addition to the class weight prescribed by law, one dollar of additional Day was originally given. But in conforming the Scale of additional pay with later amendments to the law, the Department has retained the increments of intermediate weight originally adopted, but has reduced the I36 parcels to the mails and after. All the routes in the latter group would have one common scale of additional pay before the addition of the amount of the additional pay to be given for each increment. The scale of annual pay in its present form may be stated as follows: - Annual Payment for Transporting Mails of Various Average Daily Weights 2II pounds or less: $42.75 for each mile of route. 212 pounds to 500 pounds: for each mile, $42.75 plus 85.5 cents for each whole increment of I2 pounds over 200 pounds up to 500 pounds. 500 pounds to 519 pounds: for each mile, $64.12. 520 pounds to 1,000 pounds: for each mile, $64. I2 plus 85.5 cents for each whole increment of 20 pounds over 500 pounds up to 1,000 pounds. 1,000 pounds to 1,019 pounds: for each mile, $85.50. 1,020 pounds to 1,500 pounds: for each mile, $85.50 plus 85.5 cents for each whole increment of 20 pounds over 1,000 pounds up to 1,500 pounds. - 1,500 pounds to 1,519 pounds: for each mile, $106.87. 1,520 pounds to 2,000 pounds: for each mile, $106.87 plus 85.5 cents for each whole increment of 20 pounds over 1,500 pounds up to 2,000 pounds. 2,000 pounds to 2,059 pounds: for each mile, $128.25. 2,060 pounds to 3,500 pounds: for each mile, $128.25 plus 85.5 cents for each whole increment of 60 pounds over 2,000 pounds up to 3,500 pounds. 3,500 pounds to 3,559 pounds: for each mile $149.62. 3,560 pounds to 5,000 pounds: for each mile, $149.62 plus 85.5 cents for each whole increment of 60 pounds over 3,500 pounds up to 5,000 pounds. 5,000 pounds to 5,079 pounds: for each mile, $17I.O.O. 5,080 pounds to 48,000 pounds: for each mile, $17I.OO - plus 81.225 cents for each whole increment of 80 pounds over 5,000 pounds to 48,000 pounds. 48,000 pounds to 48,103 pounds: for each mile, $607.17. 48, IO4 pounds and over : for each mile, $607. I7 plus $1.00 for each whole increment of Io9.96 pounds over 48,000 pounds. In the case of railways that have received aid by grants of land, the pay is only 80 per cent of the amount according to the preceding scale. From the scale as thus outlined, it will be seen that the computation of addi- tional pay for intermediate weights, by whole increments only, has the result that the prescribed rates of pay apply, not merely to the rates named in the law, but to all weights in addition until the amount of the first increment that earns additional pay is reached. Therefore, the weights which actually mark the points at which the prescribed rates cease to apply, and at which a higher rate becomes effective, are not the weights stated in the law, but those weights plus the first increment of additional weight upon which additional pay is based. This gives the classification employed by the Post Office Department as follows: 2II pounds and less ( & 2I2 to 519 pounds 52O ( & to I,0I9 ( & I,020 “ to 1,519 “ I,520 “ to 2,059 “ 2,060 { % to 3,559 “ 3,560 “ to 5,079 “ 5,080 “ to 48, Io9 “ 48, IO4 “ and over I37 weight of parcels and another common scale after the addition of the parcels to the mails. In the accompanying table the minimum and maximum possible average daily weights for the routes in each of the former groups are given in column I, those for each of the latter groups in column 2. Column 3 shows the minimum and maximum average daily weights for the same groups, respectively, after the weight of parcels has been added to the mails, based on the estimate of 25 per cent increase in the average daily weight. It was found that, except in the case of routes carrying Over 5,080 pounds daily, any further subdivision into groups would not increase the degree of accuracy attained sufficiently to justify the additional labor of separating the routes into Småller groups. In the case of routes carrying over 5,080 pounds daily, two considerations led to fur- ther subdivisions. The number of routes in the highest weight class, namely, those carrying Over 48, IO4 pounds daily, is so small,—being 47 in number, that it was thought best to compute the actual com- pensation that would accrue to these individual routes on the assumed increase in weight from the parcel traffic. A similar consideration led to the same conclusion in the case of those routes in the next lower weight class that would, with parcels added, pass into the highest weight class. In the case of the remaining routes carrying over 5,080 pounds daily, that is, those carrying up to 38,483 pounds, the variation in weight between the minimum and maximum weights of the class is So great that the method adopted for the lower weight classes of averaging the per cent of increase in compensation would have been liable to considerable error. Accordingly, these routes carrying be- tween 5,080 and 38,483 pounds were separated into seven groups and the per cent of increase in compensation was estimated for each of the Seven groups separafely. - The estimate of the per cent of increase in the average rate of pay per mile for each group of routes was made as follows: For each group, the rate of pay per mile was computed for the minimum and the maximum average daily weight in the group. These rates repre- sent the extremes between which all the actual rates of pay per mile within the group must range themselves. Then were found the re- spective rates of pay per mile for the same weights when increased by 25 per cent. These latter rates then represent the extremes, after the addition of the parcels, within which all the rates of pay per mile I38 CoNDENSED ExFIIBIT OF THE METHOD OF FSTIMATING THE TRANSPORTATION Weight class accord- Limits, by present average daily weight, of groups of routes within present classes that, after parcels are added, Limits by esti- mated average daily weight of the Aggregate mileage of routes in groups and classes. ing to present average same groups after daily weight. parcels are added. Per wºme ºn colº amount º' 1. 2 3 4 5 2II pounds | Up to I69|. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Up to 2 II | I4,586. oo |. . . . . . and less | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I70 to 21 I 212 to 263 4,678.62 |. . . . . . Whole class. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I9,264.62 8.76 212 pounds to { 2 I 2 to 4 I5] . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 264 to 519 IS,705.co |. . . . . . 519 pounds \ |. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 416 to 5 19| 52O “ 648 9,516.04 |... . . . Whole class...|. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28, 22I.O4 || 12.84 520 pounds to { 520 to 815|. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 650 to I,018 24,443.22 | . . . . . . I, OI9 pounds U |. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 816 to I, O.I.9 I,020 “ I, 273 7,534.5I | . . . . . . Whole class. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3I,977. 73 I4. 55 I,020 pounds to { I, O2O to I, 2 I5]. . . . . . . . . . . . . . I, 275 to I,519 8,906.74 |. . . . . . I,519 pounds \ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I,216 to I,5I9| I,520 “ 1,898 (2,072.29 |. . . . . . Whole class. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2O,979. O3 9.54 I,520 pounds to ſ I,520 to I,647|. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I,900 to 2,058 4, I75.65 |. . . . . . 2,059 pounds |... . . . . . . . . . . . . I.648 to 2,059| 2,060 “ 2,573 6,615.94 | . . . . . . Whole class. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . IO, 79 I.59 4.91 2,060 pounds to { 2,060 to 2,847). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,575 to 3,559; I I,540.43 |. . . . . . 3,559 pounds U |. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,848 to 3,559| 3,560 “ 4,448 7,531.65 & © º Whole class. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19,072.08 || 8.68 3,560 pounds to { 3,560 to 4,063|. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,450 to 5,078 5,308.99 |. . . . . . 5,079 pounds l | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,064 to 5,079 5,080 ‘‘ 6,348 8,723 24 |. . . . . . Whole class. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14,032.23 6.38 ſ|| 5,080 to 6,039|. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,350 to 7,548 8,933.55 |. . . . . . º: { % §3. & is tº s º dº e s m º ºs e º e e 7,550 ‘‘ 3; § ; © º & & s is gº 7,480 ‘‘ 9,639 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,350 ‘‘ I 2, O4 9,678.07 | . . . . . . 5,939 Pºunds tº j| 3. c. 13.3%|............... 12,050 “ I6,C98| 7,553.2I | . . . . . 48, Io9 pounds - { { { { I2,880 “ I?,739]. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I6, Ioo 22, I73 7,457.3.I . . . . . . I7,740 “ 25,029 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22, 175 “ 31,286 9, III.55 | . . . . . . 25,030 “ 38,483|... . . . . . . . . . . . . 31,287 ‘‘ 48, IO3| IO, OI7 34 |. . . . . . C | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38,484 to 48, IO3]. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,551.80 |. . . . . . Whole class. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62,93 I.O3 28.63 48, Ioa lbs. and over|48, IO4 and over|.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I2,549.26 5.7I Total for all classes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 IQ,818.6 I Ioo. oo * These aggregates rest upon a classification by this Bureau of the data for mail routes as given in the report of the Post Office Departm ºnt on the cost of railway trans- portation of the mail (H. R. Doc. IoS, 62d Cong., 1st Session), and in the annual reports o' the Post Office Department for 1910 and 1911. But the classification took no account of routes reweigh 'd since the regular weighing for the section to which the v belong, or of routes unadjusted at the time the annual report was issued, or of routes transferred from one section to another. These omissions cause a discrepancy between the total ºn- nual transportation pay for all classes resulting from this classification and the total as reported by the Post Office Department (Annual Report, 1911, page 122), as of July 1, 1911. I39 PAY FOR PARCELs, As APPLIED TO THE CASE OF A PARCEL-POST MONOPOLY. Estimated t of Aggregate present com- P. g s | Estimated additional pensation for routes in groups of average Hstimated compensation after compensation for and classes. rate per parcels are added. carrying parcels. mile and, - therefore, of the *g. Per gregate * tº c; Forench group” º' amount. i.i. Amount. Per cent of each Col. 6 × (1 + Col. 1 o e total. group. Col. 8) Totals from Col. 9. Col. Jo — Col. 6. Taoſ. 3. 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 $609,070.93 |. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 609,070.93 |. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I95,35I.42 | . . . . . . . . . 4 '99 || 205,099.45 | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $804,422.35 1.68 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 814, I70.38 9,748.03 | 1.2 873,665. OI | . . . . . . . . . Io. 17 | 962,516.74 |. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 568,561.75 |. . . . . . . . . 9.78 || 624,167.09 | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1,442,226.76 3.91 | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,586,683.83 I44,457 O7 | Io.o. 1,734,868.94 |. . . . . . . . . 9.64 |I,902, I 10.31 |. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 589, I92 43 |. . . . . . . . . II.52 657,067.39 |. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $2,324,061 37 4.84 |. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,559, I77.70 235, II6.33 Io. I 793,507. 73 | . . . . . . . . . I2.79 | 894,997.37 l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I, I96,098 I 4 |. . . . . . . . . I3.98 |I,363,312.66 |. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1,989,605.87 4. I5 | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,258,310.03 268,704. I6 || 13.5 445,351.28 |. . . . . . . . . I4.35 | 509,259. I8 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * | * * * * e 793,479.64 |. . . . . . . . . 9. 19 | 866,400.42 |. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1,238,830.92 2.58 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I,375,659.60 I36,828.68 II. O. $1,513,739.87 |. . . . . . . . 6.03 |1,605,018.38 |. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I, O44,552.70 | . . . . . . . . . 7.65 |I, 124,460.99 |. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $2,558,292.57 5.33 |. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,729. 479.37 171, 186.8o 6.6 788,937.70 | . . . . . . . . 8.34 854,735. Io . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I,4IO,935. OI | . . . . . . . . . 7.84 |I,521,552.32 I. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $2, IQ9,872.71 4.59 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,376,287.42 I76,4I4.71 8. O I,513,987.99 |. . . . . . . . . 7.60 | I,629,051.08|. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I,373,335.7 I | . . . . . . . . 8.84 | 1,494,738.59 |. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I,934, I25. O7 | . . . . . . . . . Io. 22 2, 131,792.66 |. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I,7II,323.29 | . . . . . . . . . I2. I4 I,919, O77.94 | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I,953,623.02 |. . . . . . . . . I4. OO | 2,227, 130.25 | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,923,280.27 | . . . . . . . . . 1584 || 3,386,327 86|. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4, IQ7,924.97 | . . . . . . . . . 18.68 |4,956,909.81 |. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I,375,473.62 |. . . . . . . . . (2) 1,651,747.96". . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $16, 83,073.94 35.40 | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I9,396,776. I5 |2,413,702 2 I I4.2 18,436,261.78% 38.43 (*) . . . . . . . . . . . . 22,690. O24. I6° 4,253 762.38 23.o. $47,976,648.27° IOO OO ! . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55,786,568.64 7,809,920.37 | 16.2% The amount of this discrepancy is $2 8 OSo. 24, or about .4 of I per cent. The total at given in this column does not show as much of a discrepancy as this because of certair adjustments referred to in note 3. * Computed for each route on the ass umed increase in weight due to parcels. * These totals are slightly increased by reason of certain adjustments in the figures as reported by the Post Office Department, equired to make the present annual pay o routes that are compensated according to agreement comparable with their computed transportation pay with parcels added. These adjustments are explained on page 141 note I. I40 within the group must range themselves. A simple average of the first two rates was taken as representing the average rate per mile for the group before the addition of the weight of parcels' and a simple average of the last two rates was taken as representing the average rate per mile for the same group of routes after the addition of the parcels to the mails." The per cent by which this second average ex- ceeded the first was then taken as the per cent of increase in the aver- age rate per mile for the group.” . * The probable accuracy of these estimates may be indicated from these con- siderations. If the total mileage to which each rate per mile applies were the same for all the rates, then the average as found above would be a true average rate per mile for all the routes in the group. This follows from arranging the groups in such a way as to have all the rates per mile within any group subject to a common scale of additional pay for intermediate increments of weight. For, when this scale of pay is common to all the rates, the difference between any two successive rates is constantly the same, being the amount of the unit increment of additional pay. In fact, however, the amount of mileage is not the same for all rates. A true average rate for the group requires that each rate be weighted according to the number of miles to which it applies. But the above estimates of the average rates cannot vary from the true averages by any appreciable amount for the following reasons: A simple average of any number of items will be identical with a weighted average (a) if all the items averaged are equal, or (b) if all the weights are equal. Further, as a matter of experience, the weights in a weighted average must differ considerably from each other before a weighted average of a number of different items departs in any important degree from a simple average of the same items. Now, in the present case, the groups of routes do not show a wide variation in the rates per mile within any group, and, in the case of all but the heavier routes, the number of routes in each group is large enough to render improbable any important variations in the amount of mileage pertaining to the various rates in the group. In the case of the heaviest weight class, this method of estimating the increase of pay was not used, but the compensation was computed for each route on the as- sumed increase in average daily weight. - The effect of any error from this source in these estimates of the average rate per mile for a group is almost eliminated from the final result when it is considered that the same error will appear in both the average rate before adding the parcels and in the average rate after adding them. The per cent of increase in the average rate—which is the factor entering into further calcu- lations—can be affected only by an amount too small to consider in this com- putation. The fact that some routes are over land-grant railways, and thus subject to a lower rate of pay per mile, does not affect the estimate of the per cent of increase in the average rate per mile. This results from the fact that the rate per mile for the land-grant railways is a fixed percentage of the rate per mile for other railways. While the estimates that represent the average rates per mile in any group, before and after adding the parcels, would be affected by the presence of land-grant routes in the group, the per cent of increase in these estimated average rates, being a ratio between then, would not be affected. The presence of lap service routes would affect the estimated per cent of increase in the rate per mile. But the cases are too few to be of any importance in this connection. - Finally, there are the cases where the compensation to a railway is fixed by I4I The aggregate compensation for all the routes in any group equals the average rate of pay per mile for all the routes within the group multiplied by the total mileage of the routes in the group. Since the factor of mileage would he the same after adding parcels as before, the increase in aggregate compensation for the group is proportionate to the increase in the average rate of pay per mile. Therefore, the above estimate of the per cent of increase in the average rate of pay per mile may be applied to the present aggregate compensation for the group in order to estimate the increased compensation for the group when the parcels are added to the mails. The present compensation" for each group is given in column 6. -- The estimated compensation for each group, after adding the weight of parcels, is given in column 9. The compensation for all the routes in each weight class and for all classes is given in column IO. The additional compensation assignable as pay for transporting the parcels is given in column II. The per cent of increase in compensation for the assumed 25 per cent increase in average daily weight is shown for each class and for all classes in column I2. - - - The same method was employed in estimating the compensation in case of competition between a parcel post and the express companies, but the estimated increase in average daily weight was 12 per cent agreement between the railway and the Post Office Department. In these cases the railways, rather than give up the mail traffic to another shorter line, agree to carry the traffic for the total annual compensation that would be paid if the traffic were carried over the shorter line. But these agreements would not affect the estimates in question. For the compensation is actually computed according to the prescribed scale of pay, but for a shorter distance than the one over which the mail is carried. Such cases are thus perfectly regular in the manner of determining the compensation. The apparent irregularity is due to the reduction of the total compensation, as computed for the shorter distance, to a per mile basis for the longer route actually traveled by the mail. Since the same distance would be used as a divisor for this purpose in the new computation of pay with the parcels added as is now used, the ratio between resulting rates per mile before and after adding the parcels would be the same as the ratio between the rates regularly calculated for the given average daily weights. * The figures obtained for the present compensation are not quite correct. In separating the routes into groups, the data of the Post Office Department in Tables 5A to 51 in the report on the cost of railway transportation (H. R. Doc. 105, 62d Cong., Ist Session) were used for the first and second weighing sections. But the third and fourth sections have been reweighed since the date to which the tables mentioned pertain. For these sections the data given in the reports of the Post Office Department for IQIO and 1911 were used. But no adjustment was made for the routes reweighed since the regular weighing for their section, or for routes transferred from one section to another and reweighed, or for routes unadjusted at the time the reports of the Post Office Department were issued. It was considered that these omissions would make 142 instead of 25 per cent. This required an entirely new series of com- putations. But it is hardly necessary to give the details of this series. The results are given in tables in the text. so small a difference in the result that they might be ignored. According to the report of the Post Office Department for IQII, page 122, the annual compen- sation should be $48,041,238.4I. The total present compensation, as found in the manner stated, was $47,823,188. I7. The difference is $218,050.24, only about .4 of one per cent. Moreover, the effect of this difference on the per cent of increase of the total compensation for all routes would be infinitesimal. But the total present compensation as given in the table does not show as much difference as this because of some adjustments that were necessary to get comparable figures for the present and future compensation on certain of the routes carrying over 48,000 pounds. The compensation with parcels for these routes was, for reasons given on page I37, computed on the basis of the assumed increase in average daily weight. The compensation on some of these routes is fixed by agreement at a lower amount than would be paid according to the legal rate for a route of the given length. The compensation with parcels, computed on the legal rate for the actual mileage, would thus not be comparable with the present compensation for the purpose of showing the per cent of increase. Accordingly, the figures for the present compensation were raised to the amount that would be paid if computed by law for the actual distance. This adjustment, for the sake of comparability, amounts in the aggregate to $152,150. . This adjustment was made only in the case of certain routes in the third weighing section where the difference between the agreed compensation and that according to the legal rate was sufficient to have an appreciable effect on the estimate of the increase in pay on account of carrying parcels. Another qualification pertains to the recent withdrawal of much second-class matter from the mail for transportation by freight. The weights used in the above estimate were all taken prior to this change. Hence the estimate takes no account of this change in mail transportation. I43 APPENDIX VII. Comparison of Parcel-Post Charges Proposed in Various Bills Before Congress. In the accompanying table is presented a comparison of the rates proposed in several bills before Congress providing for a general par- cel post. Many of the bills before Congress contemplate only a parcel post limited to rural delivery routes. In those cases the rates usually proposed are 5 cents for the first pound and 2 cents for each additional pound. In the table are included only rates applicable to an unlimited territory. The Guernsey bill provides a rate of I2 cents a pound for unlimited distances; then two lower rates of 6 cents and 3 cents a pound, re- spectively, for shorter distances to be fixed by the Postmaster-General. The Bourne bill applies the principle of the zone system to a larger number of zones. It provides a flat rate of one cent an ounce for any distance up to 4 ounces. But for packages over 4 ounces, a pound rate, graduated to distance, is provided. The Tribble bill is general as to territory, but limits the parcel post to agricultural products. The remaining bills require no explanation. In order to show the charges prescribed by some of the bills, the weight of parcels is indicated by gradations in ounces. But to assist the eye to detect the larger gradations by pounds, horizontal lines are drawn at the division points between even pounds, and the words “over” and “not over” are repeated at the beginning and end of each section. comparison OF CHARGES (in cents) PROPOSED BY VARIOUS PARCEL POST BILLS. Guernsey Bill. Bourne Bill. Guerrisey Bill. Bourne Bill. Weight of parcel. Weight of parcel. : : : ! g # i ! f i i i | : # | : ſ : ! | . ; : i | i | i i i : : i : : : : | : ; : i *Ž § : i i : § 13– *-*m-mm-i & C { { { { tº e º ſº º e g g º e 4. { { & C { { I Not over I oz. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . * * * * * * | * * * * * * I I I I I I . . . . . I | . . . . . . . . . [Over 5 lbs., not over 5 lbs. 2 oz. . . . . . . . . . * * * * * * e s , s e e s I e º e º s e i < e < * | * * * * : * * * * I e o e s a e s e e . . . . . . 41 | . . . . . . . . . . Over 1 oz., “ “ . 2 “ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . * * * * * | * * * * * 2 || 2 || 2 || 2 || 2 || 2 2 . . . . . . . . . . || “ 5 “ 2 oz., not over 5 lbs. 4 oz. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 46 |.....}. * { { § { * { { § { { { { { " ; C 6 2 * * { % { { 3 “ & e s is a e & s = e is tº $ I e e e º e = I s e º e s tº 3 3 3 3 3 3 tº º tº 3 |: . . . . . . . . . { % 5 { { 4 º { % { { 5 { { 3 . . . . . . . . . . tº sº e º º . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 | . . . . . . . . . . e { { 3 { { { { { % 4 “ . & e s s s a e s a e s : * * * * * * : * * * * * * * * * * * * * 4. 4 4 4 4. 4 2 4. * * * * * & ſº º º 5 6 s 5 8 & e i e º 'º e º e i s sº e s e e * * * * * * | * * * * : * * * * | * * * * | * * * * | < e < e s \ , s s , , 44 48 a g º s º º “ 4 “ “ “ 5 “ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . "|...}.". . . . . . . . . . 5 | . . . . . . . . .] “ 5 “ 8 “ “ “ 5 “ Io “ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 * † º { % * { { { { { { - Fº 6 { { < ** To “ { { & C $ 8 I2 “ 6 5 6 e & e º 'º e º e s e º us e e i e º e = e s I e e s = e º e º is e e s • . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ) • - - - 3 * * * * * * tº tº $ { % J. { { { { { % { 5 { % . . . . • * * * * * * * * * * * * | * * * * * * : * * * * : * * * * : * * * * | * * * * | * * * * * | * * * * * 4. 5O tº e º º e “ 6 “ ‘‘ ‘‘ 7 “ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | 7 | . . . . . * * g e 5 [2 { S I4 . . . . . . . . . • - - - - - I - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . “ 7 “ “ “ 8 “ e e º e s = * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * . * * * * * * : * g e º sº sº e . . . . . . . . . . 4 || 8 |. . . . . . . . . “ 5 “ I4 “ not over 6 lbs. ... . . . . 72 36 18 16 22 28 34 62 | 72 48 || 52 || 7 || 48 ‘‘ 8 ‘‘ ‘‘ ‘‘ Io “ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ę as “ , ” º e º e s e º i < * * * * . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ||Over 6 lbs., not over 6 lbs. 2 oz. . . . . . . . e s i • * * * * * : * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * | * * * * : * * * * * * * * * | * 4 = e s I e e s = s. 49 | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ‘‘ Io ‘‘ ‘‘ ‘‘ I 2 “ . . . . . . . . . p = e º & e e = e º e º e e s e i s = e e = * . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | 6 || 10 |. . . . . . . . . || “ ‘‘ 2 oz., not over 6 lbs. 4 oz. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .] 50 54 |.. ſº tº tº dº 7 { { - 8 “ & “ “ “ 6 “ 8 “ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...] §2 || 36||......... e is & 6 T 2 2 8 { { 6 8 ‘‘ ‘‘ ‘‘ 6 ‘‘ Io “ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . tº & tº º ſº ºn tº * * * * : * * * * | * * * * | * * * * * * e s e e i s a s e s 53 6 7 { % { { { % { { IO ( & { % { { { { I2 ‘‘ I4 “ not over lbs. ...... 84 12 || 2 | 18 25 32 39 72 84 || 56 66"| 8 56 *= W ===== i <=s* | *= - 1 =se sº-se lbs., not over 7 lbs. 2 oz. . . . . . . . . • . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 | . . . . . . . . ‘‘ 2 oz., not over $ { { { { { ſ ( 4. { { 6 § { § { § { 7 7 “ 8 { { { { 7 . . . . e sº e s = e i s is a s & e º e e tº tº º º * * * * 7 IO " " . . . . . . . . * * * * * * * * } = * * * * * \ is e e º e s e s \ e º e s ] e e s e e - e a e i s e s = • 6I . . . . . . . . . 7 8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 . . . . . . . . . . ; . . . . ||Over | lb., not over I 1b. 2 oz. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . : IO I4 | . . . . . . . . . . £ 6 I I “ 2 oz., not over I lb. 4 oz. . . . . . . . . . • . . . . . . . . . . . . I ‘‘ 4 “ ‘‘ ‘‘ I ‘‘ 6 “ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . { % I 6 & 6 { { ( & { { “ . 8 “ . . . . e q e º e º 'º e s e s a e e s ∈ is a g I I I I I I2 | 16 . . . . . ‘‘ { { 8 § { { { ( { I ( ( IO 6 & * * * * * * * * * * * e tº e. * * g tº gº º ſº tº £ tº tº tº e º 'º * * * * tº £ tº # tº e º ſº & C IO { { { { { { I tº [. I 2 { { * * * * * * * * * * * & © tº gº tº ſº e e g º e º g º e e & © tº & tº º ſº tº tº g º tº * * * : tº e º 'º I4. I8 e 4 e º º & e º tº { { { { IO { { { { { { “ I2 “ ‘‘ ‘‘ I ‘‘ I4 “ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . “ 12 “ . . . . “ I4 “ not over 2 lbs. . . . . . . . . . 24 I2 6 8 Io I2 I4 22 || 24 I6 20 3 I6 { { ‘‘ 14 “ not over 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 lbs., not over 2 lbs. 2 oz. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 . . . . . . . . . . . . . ||Over **, *.*.*.*.* & © tº e & # e. * , e s e º e s I e e s e < * * * * * * * | * * * * * * * * * * * * * * e s e s \ a, e. e. e. e. . . . . . 65 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 8 8 8 8 8 2 “ 2 oz., not over 2 lbs. 4 oz. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 22 |. . . . . tº gº tº sº. ‘‘ 2 oz., not over 8 lbs. 4 oz. . . . . . . . . . . . ... tº dº & © I & º ºs e e g * * * * : * * * * | * * * * | * * * * | * * * * e i e s e a s 66 || 7o |... { { C & { { { { £ 6 4 “ { { & [. 2 “ 6 “ . . . tº s ſº e º is I e º e º ſº e I & tº g º º e | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . is a s a º º e & I9 tº e º º & gº º tº e * & tº e. { { { { 6 “ . . . . . . . . . * * * * * * 1 & # * * is s * * * * : * tº e º $ sº e s sº I e º e º H e º e º e © º º ºs & 67 ſº tº a g : * > * ( & { { 2 * 2 i 4. 8 * * e. ‘‘ 2 ‘‘ 6 ‘‘ ‘‘ ‘‘ 2 ‘‘ 8 “ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 24 |. . . . . . . . . || “ 8 “ 6 “ 8 “ 8 “ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 72 . . . “ 2 “ 8 “ “ “ 2 “ To “.... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . “ “ 8 “ “ “ 8 “ Io “ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 ... . . . . . . . . { { 2 “ Io “ { { “ 2 “ I2 “ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 26 |. . . . . . . . . ( & ‘‘ Io ( & S ‘‘ r2 “ • * : * * * * * * • “ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7o 74 . . . . . . . . . . ‘‘ 2 “ I2 “ “ ‘‘ 2 “ 14 “ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 ... . . . . . . . . ] ‘ ‘ “ 12 ‘‘ ‘‘ ‘‘ 8 “ 14 “ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 |. . . . . . . . . . ... “ 2 “ 14 “ not over 3 lbs. ... . . . . . 36 I8 9. Io 13 16 | 19 |32 || 36 24 28 || 4 || 24 || “ “ 14 “ not over 9 lbs. . . . . . . . . . oë $4 27 22 || 31 | 40 49 92 | Io& | 72 76 Io 72 - — — *======s= | s===s* | * * - x-rrºw ** I sº-º-º-> | = | – sºme ºsmºs Over 31bs., not over 3 lbs. 2 oz. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . • . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ||Over 9 lbs., not over 9 lbs. 2 oz. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 . . . . . . . . . . . ‘‘ 3 “ 2 oz., not over 3 lbs. 4 oz. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 || 30 |. . . . . . . . . || “ 9 “ 2 oz., not over 9 lbs. 4 oz. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 78 . . . . . “ 3 ‘‘ 4 “ ‘‘ ‘‘ 3 “ 6 “ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 | . . . . . . . . . . . . . || “ 9 “ 4 “ ‘‘ ‘‘ 9 “ 6 “ . . . . . . . . . & ſº º * * * * * * | * * * * e s is e i s e a e ] e e e s || 4 e o e s ] a 75 “ 3 “ 6 : { { “ 3 “ 8 “................................. . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 32 | . . . . . tº e º 'º ( & 9 “ 6 * * “ . . 9 ( ( 8 “ . . . . . . . . . * * * * * * | * * * * * * | * * * * 1 s e e s ] e º e s ] e s s .....l..... 76 '86"|... . . * { { 3 “ S “ { { $ 4 3 { { * . . . . * g º e º 'º tº º is tº e s I & tº e º e º k e º e º . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ( & 9 “ 8 “ & 6 ( & 9 “ IO ‘‘ . . tº g º ſº tº e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 . . . . . . . . . “ 3 “ To “ { { “ 3 “ 12 . . . . . . . . . e 8 & sº & & º 'º º & & 9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 | 34 . . . . . ë e º & “ 9 “ to “ { { “ 9 “ 12 “ . . . . . . . • * * * * * * * * * * * | * * * * | * > . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 || 82 . . . . . . . . . “ 3 “ T2 " . { { “ 3 “ I4 “ . . . . . . . . . * * * * * * | * g tº e º $ & © º tº . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 |. . . . . . . . . fe tº e & ( & 9 ‘‘ I2 “ & & { { 9 { % I4 { % * * * * * * | * * * * * * | * * * * * * | * * * * * * * * * | * * * * | * e º a a e s s a . . . . . 79 |. . . . . . . . . . . . . . “ 3 “ 14 “ not over 4 lbs. ... . . . . . 48 24 I 2 12 16 20 24 || 42 48 || 32 36 || 5 || 32 “ 9 “ 14 “ not over Io lbs. . . . . . ...] I .2O | 60 3O || 24 || 34 44 54 IO2 I2O 8o 84 II 8O Over 4 lbs., not over 4 lbs. 2 oz. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 |. . . . . . . . . . . . . ||Over Io lbs., not over Io lbs. 2 oz. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 |. . . . . . . . . e “ 4 “ 2 oz., not over 4 lbs. 4 oz. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 || 38 |. . . . . . . . . . " Io “ 2 oz., not over ſo lbs. 4 oz. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 | 86 |..... . . . . “ 4 “ 4 “ “ “ 4 “ 6 “...]. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .] 35 |... . . . . . . . . . . . “ To “ 4 “ “ “ to “ 6 “ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 |. . . . . . . . . . . . . “ 4 “ 6 “ “ “ 4 “ 8 “... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 | 40 . . . . . . . . .] “ ſo 6 " " '' Io 8 “ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 || 88 |......... “ 4 “ 8 “ 4 ( ‘‘ 4 “ Io “ . . . . . . . . . tº & 8 e º s 2 § & & & © & . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 | . . . . . . . . . . & © tº º “ Io “ 8 “ { % “ to “ to “...l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .l....l....l.....l..... 85 . . . . . . . . . . . . . “ 4 “ To “ { { “ 4 “ I2 “...|. . . . . • * * * * * * * | . . . . . . • * * * is e e e i e s a • e º e s is e s a | * * * * 38 42 | . . . . . . . . . . “ To “ Io “ { % “ Io “ 12 “... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 90 § © & ‘‘ 4 “ I2 “ ‘‘ ‘‘ 4 “ I4 “ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .] 39 [.. . . . . . . . . ....|| “ Io “ 12 “ “ “ Io “ 14 “ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 | . . . . . . . . . . . . . ‘' 4 “ I4 “ not over 5 lbs. . . . . . . . . 6o 3O I5 I4 19 24 29 || 52 6o 40 || 44 || 6 || 4o “ Io “ 14 “ not over II lbs. . . . . ... 1.32 | 66 33 26 || 37 || 48 || 59 II2 I32 || 88 92 | 12 || 88 |||||||||| id:ATE DUE