D 646 S53 Peace Conference Hints By Bernard Shaw London: Constable & Co. Ltd. ARTES 1837 SCIENTIA LIBRARY VERITAS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN PLUNIBUS UNUM THEBOR SI QUÆRIS-PENINSULAM AMⱭNAM CIRCUMSMICE PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS 1 D 646 $53 འ ག རྣ མ བ ནི པར PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS BY DOL BERNARD SHAW George LONDON CONSTABLE AND COMPANY LIMITED 1919 Copyright 1919. All rights reserved. Librarian } $ $ + 37 CONTENTS ENTER HISTORY: CHAPTER I. EXIT ROMANCE. BRITISH FOREIGN POLICY. THE DIPLOMACY OF 1906-1914. CHAPTER II. CROSS PURPOSES IN HOME POLITICS. THE GREAT CAMOU- FLAGE. PRINCE LICHNOWSKY CHAPTER III. THE FALL OF MR. ASQUITH AND SIR EDWARD GREY. THE LION'S SPRING. THE BLOCKADE. THE FREEDOM of THE SEAS CHAPTER IV. FEDERAL REPUBLICANISM SUCCEEDS ΤΟ THE HOLY ROMAN EMPIRE. THE COALITION ROYALISTS AND MR. WILSON. MR. WILSON AS CHARLEMAGNE. THE IRISH QUESTION CHAPTER V. THE LEAGUE OF NATIONS. ITS ROMANCE AND ITS REALITY. ANACHARSIS KLOOTZ VERSUS M. LEON BOURGEOIS PAGE 7 17 31 45 64 vi CONTENTS CHAPTER VI. INDISPENSABILITY OF GERMANY IN THE LEAGUE OF NATIONS. CLEMENCEAU'S OBJECTION. THE DEMAND FOR SECURITY. DISARMAMENT. FUTILITY OF THE ECONOMIC BOYCOTT. RECAPITULATION CHAPTER VII. GOOD MANNERS IN WAR AND PEACE. THE CREED OF CHRISTIAN CHIVALRY. OUR FULL MEAL or VENGEANCE. ATROCITY MONGERING HAD BETTER END. THE PERIL OF CLASS WAR PAGE 74 95 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS CHAPTER I ENTER HISTORY: EXIT ROMANCE BEFORE the Peace Conference can be discussed with any profit, it must be approached in the light of the facts, and not of the romance on which the popular imagination was fed during the war. It is in the nature of war that it can never be fought out on the merits of the casus belli. The common soldier, who has to risk life and limb in the business, like the common taxpayer and elector who has to support the soldier and maintain the Government in power, is never trusted with the truth. He may not be statesman enough to grasp its scope and importance. He may not be capable of under- standing it at all. His narrow personal and parochial morality might be revolted by it. It is therefore deemed necessary to present the war to him as a crude melodrama in which his country is the hero and the enemy the villain. The present war is no exception to this rule. The legend of the crimes of Germany, which has nerved millions of Britons and Americans, Frenchmen and Italians, 7 8 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS to devote themselves to the destruction of the German military power through the wholesale slaughter of their fellow creatures, is no truer than the counter legend of the crimes of England which rallied millions of Germans to defend their country by the same ruinous method. Now that the war is over, the legends have served their purposes and must be discarded. They would not bear a moment's investigation in an impartial court. Even at the Peace Conference, which, far from being an impartial court, ordains simply the imposition of the will of the victors on the vanquished, the victors must for their own sakes be guided by the facts even if they still talk in terms of the fictions. The first step in the discussion is, therefore, to set forth the facts in order. England, as all the world knows, has, ever since she ceased to be raided and conquered by one continental invasion after another, Roman, Saxon, Danish, and Norman, taken the lesson of these raids and conquests closely to heart, and held steadily to certain conditions of self-preservation. These are, that her fleet must command the seas, and that no rival fleet or even combination of fleets must be capable of overcoming that fleet; that no continental State shall be allowed to acquire such a military predominance in Europe as to deprive England of the power of defeating it by throwing herself into the scale against it (in other words that England must hold the balance of power); and, in particular, that no Power of the first magnitude must be allowed to ENTER HISTORY: EXIT ROMANCE 9 control the shores of the North Sea and thereby cut off England's military access to the continent. This is the English equivalent of the Monroe Doctrine. It is quite useless to argue about its morality. It is imposed on England by necessity, just as the Monroe Doctrine, which is equally indefensible ethically, is imposed on the United States by necessity. Whilst war exists as an institution, and nations compete with one another for power, prestige, and "places in the sun, England will have to postulate these conditions and fight for them whether her Government be composed of Quakers or Jingos. She will no more suffer a formidable rival to hold Antwerp than to hold Portsmouth. If the United States build a thousand new battleships England will build fifteen hundred new ones. If the French Republic rises on the ruins of the Prussian mon- archy towards a European hegemony, England will combine with Germany to make that hegemony impossible. In the matter of foreign alliances she will allow Belgium just as much freedom of choice as she allows Ireland, and no more. She will act in this way because she must. She may never let her left hand know what her right is doing. Her non-interventionist Liberals, her Quakers, her littleminded insular commercialists may repudiate such designs; her Imperialists may profess ententes cordiales and unions of hearts and championships of oppressed little nationalities ; her prelates may preach peace on earth and good- will to men; but at the first extra battleship built abroad, at the first menace to Antwerp, at the 10 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS first possibility of hegemony, all these calculations will be swept aside by the surge of patriotism or duped by diplomatic secrecy; and all the pieties and professions will veer round to the point at which the whole duty of man in England will be to maintain the freedom of the seas by the guardian- ship of the British fleet, to save Antwerp from a fate worse than death, and to rescue Europe from being crushed under the heel of a brutal despotism. Do not dismiss this too lightly as British hypocrisy. There is always some solid brick underneath the whitewash. It may very easily be the interest of the world as well as of England that there shall not be a hegemony in Europe, and that access to its shores shall not be controlled by any Power that can afford to keep the door locked. The British fleet may in effect be found useful to the world as a maritime police force. To take an extreme instance, the defence of the Straits of Gibraltar by England, though apparently an outrageous violation of the Spanish form of the Monroe Doctrine, may save the Spanish tax- payer a huge annual charge whilst protecting him more effectually than a Spanish fortress could. In the affairs of nations as in those of individuals, it commonly happens that the robust people who make it their first duty to take care of themselves are more useful to their neighbors than the idealists whose eyes are in the ends of the earth, and in whom the disease of suicidal mania takes on an air of virtue by calling itself self-sacrifice. The present destruction of the military power of Germany is thus only a formal incident of ENTER HISTORY: EXIT ROMANCE 11 British foreign policy, planned with all England's accustomed resolution, patience, craft, force, and triumphant success. Also with all her amazing power of concealing from herself what she is doing. The Englishman never knows what the British Foreign Office is about, not because the Foreign Office could effectively conceal its proceedings if they were resolutely investigated, but because he does not want to know. Some instinct tells him that he had better not know. He will not read the speeches of the Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs even when they are fully reported. He does not read the White Papers and Blue Books which deal with foreign policy; and if he did read them he could not read between the lines of the official formalities and courtesies, nor would he in any case learn the whole truth if he did; for diplomacy is conducted mostly by private correspondence which even the King has no right to see. And whilst he abuses all the Ministers of the domestic departments to his heart's content according to his party politics, he invariably speaks with the deepest respect and awe of his foreign affairs minister at home and his proconsuls abroad. Hence you have such ridiculously exaggerated reputations as those of the late Lord Cromer and of Lord Grey of Fallodon. The down- fall of the latter was due, not to his errors, but to the fact that the necessity for stuffing the British people with a fairy tale as to the nature and causes of the war made it impossible for him to claim his own triumph because it was of the kind which he himself had been denouncing as Machiavellism. 12 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS When the Northcliffe Press turned and rent him for not having been Machiavellian enough in the matter of the Balkans, he could not defend himself without shaking the war moral of the British people and the British army by revealing that the generous indignation which was inspiring them to fight Germany to the bitter end was founded on a patriotic fiction. What would his defence have been if he could have uttered it? Simply the true history of his policy as Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs. And that history would have been as follows. In 1898-1902 it became apparent that Germany was violating the first of the conditions of British self-preservation. She was building a fleet. A year or two later Lord Lee, then Mr Arthur Lee and civil lord of the Admiralty, convulsed diplomatic Europe for a fortnight by mentioning at a public dinner that there was no need to be alarmed, as England could, if put to it, sink the German fleet before her declaration of war had reached Berlin. This was true, but not calculated to reassure the Germans as to their security face to face with England. In 1906 the Liberals won a general election by a huge majority; but as the Liberals were distrusted in foreign affairs because they consisted so largely of commercial non-inter- ventionists and Quaker Pacifists, they secured this victory by including among their leaders a number of gentlemen described as Liberal Imperialists, a title which left some doubt as to whether they were genuine Liberals, but no doubt whatever that they were sound Imperialists: that is, men alive ENTER HISTORY: EXIT ROMANCE 13 to the growth of the German fleet, and faithful to the old British tradition in that matter. Three of them, Mr Asquith, Sir Edward Grey, and Mr Haldane, were entrusted with the foreign policy of the Government; and the nation, reassured, relapsed into its customary instinctive inattention to this dangerous topic. Now that the war is over there is no longer any reason to conceal what followed. Lord Haldane's letter to The Times of the 18th December, 1918 completes the history begun in his speech from the chair at a lecture delivered by Sir Arthur Conan Doyle shortly after the beginning of the war, and in the nearly simultaneous speech of Mr Winston Churchill as to the preparation of the navy at the same period. The rest is in the parliamentary reports and the published diplomatic correspond- ence, including the memoranda discovered by the Germans in Brussels and not disowned by the British Foreign Office. Immediately on the accession to power of the Liberal Imperialists the French Republic raised the question of the German peril. The Germans outnumbered the French by twenty millions, and were therefore in a condition of manifest military superiority. As the subjugation of the French Republic would produce a German hegemony, it was clearly part of the traditional British policy to prevent such a subjugation. Accordingly it was quietly agreed that in the event of a German invasion of France, Britain should not only support France with the North Sea Fleet, but send a military expedition to reinforce the French army. 14 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS As it was foreseen that a German invasion must as a matter of strategical necessity be made through Belgium, the Belgians were warned that they would be expected to resist, and promised that England would see them through. The Belgians, thus caught "between the pass and fell incensed points of mighty opposites ", could only demand exact particulars of the assistance to be given them. The number of troops and the number of days within which these troops would be landed at their ports were specified. The Belgians finally expressed a hope that troops would not be sent into their country uninvited. They were told, in effect, that in the event of a German invasion England would defend the soil of Belgium, invited or uninvited; and the Belgians resigned themselves to their fate accordingly. The British Imperialists then put their prepara- tion vigorously in hand. Lord Haldane, as Secre- tary of State for War, set to work with Sir Douglas Haig to reorganize the British army. It was impossible to introduce conscription in the then lazy and luxurious phase of public opinion; but the promised expedition was prepared and trained with a view to the work that awaited it; a terri- torial force was established to deal with such raids as might slip through the fence of the navy; General French was instructed to prepare himself for the command of the expeditionary force by studying the ground in Flanders; the provision of artillery was looked to; and a huge accumulation of ammunition for the navy was begun. The result was that when the war broke out, ENTER HISTORY: EXIT ROMANCE 15 England was, up to the limit of her engagements, by far the best prepared of all the belligerents. Her program was carried out with plenty to spare, and without a hitch. The navy was invincible. The military expedition, in greater numbers and in a shorter time than had been promised, was sent across the sea without the loss of a single man. After discounting all blunders and all reverses, and admitting that our engagements, and consequently our preparation, fell far short of our real commit- ments and responsibilities, we can still claim that Germany was not only hopelessly blockaded, but outwitted, outprepared, outgeneralled, out- fought, outflown, outgassed, outtanked, out- raided, outbombed, and finally brought to her knees at England's feet more abjectly than Philip, or Louis, or Napoleon, or any of the old rivals of the British Lion. It has been an amazing and magnificent achievement, of which the English themselves will not become conscious until some eloquent historian, a century hence, tells them what to think about it. On the other hand, the Germans, considering their prodigious military reputation, a reputation created partly by their cheap military and moral victory over bankrupt Bonapartism in 1871, and partly by the romancings of German officers with a literary turn, were comparatively unprepared and incompetent. They had not a single torpedo ready for the expedition as it crossed the sea. They attacked Liège with field guns, though every artillerist in Europe knew that they might as well have attacked it with pop-guns; and before they 16 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS got up some Austrian siege guns, they had lost their one chance of winning the war. They rushed on Paris without provisions or munitions, and had to retreat and scrap their general in the face of a breathless Europe. They introduced clouds of poisonous gas under climatic conditions which made it more deadly to them than to their enemy. They had grasped the importance of the machine gun, which soon threatened to make the war impossible; but the British invented the tank and checkmated the machine gun. The world-famous German organization and efficiency proved a sentimental dream; and its final collapse was so complete, so sudden, and so ludicrous, that the astonished victors were for some time more dis- concerted than triumphant. In my next chapter I shall explain how this apparently simple and direct struggle between two rival Powers, eight years of which were occupied in manoeuvring for position, and only four in actual fighting, was was masked by such a bewildering camouflage of cross purposes, mystifications, party moves, and soul conflicts between dreams of martial glory and Christian pacifist compunction, that not until the armistice was signed was it possible even to approach the truth in a public utterance of any kind, spoken or written. Even now men gape openmouthed at the story, and ask whether they or the narrator are mad. CHAPTER II CROSS PURPOSES, THE GREAT CAMOUFLAGE, AND LICHNOWSKY Ar the end of the preceding chapter, having traced the direct course of the policy by which the British Empire broke the power of Germany, I promised to explain the entanglements which made it impossible at any moment before the end of the war to lay that policy bare to the British public, the British parliament, or the British historian. To begin with, the Jingo Imperialists and the genuinely Liberal Imperialists were at cross pur- poses. Lord Haldane, a Scot, by far the ablest member of the Imperialist trio (Asquith-Grey- Haldane) who conducted the policy, and, as Secretary of State for War, the acting partner of the combination, foresaw the war as a horrible. possibility to be avoided at all costs short of subjugation; and he did what a man, a Liberal, and a philosopher could to maintain friendly rela- tions with the Germans : a course which, when the war broke out, earned him black ingratitude, bitter vituperation, and even threats of impeach- ment as the friend of Germany." His two English colleagues merely drifted into the combination દ 17 C 18 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS under French pressure, and, being peaceable good- natured persons, hoped that the Kaiser would keep quiet. The Jingos, The Jingos, on the other hand, were eager for a fight with Germany. Many of them advocated a surprise attack on the German fleet. About a year before the war, on the initiative of a German Count, friendly addresses were exchanged between the leading men of both countries, full of platitudes about Shakespear and Goethe. A sentence was inserted in the first draft of the British address to the effect that the possession by Germany of a powerful fleet, far from being a subject of jealousy, could only be regarded as an additional guarantee of civilization. It was found impossible to obtain the necessary British signatures until that sentence was expunged. Evidently those who refused to sign it and those who consented were in very different attitudes. Men who were making a necessary provision for defence in the event of an attack by Germany were inextricably confused in the same party with men who could hardly be induced to wait for a decent pretext before springing the mine so carefully dug. To the latter the avoidance of the war would have been the worst misfortune that could have happened to England. Even when Germany capitulated they were still under such a terror terror of peace that they called her collapse "a peace offensive." There is a good deal to be said for their view from the Militarist and British Leonine standpoint. I am not here criticising it adversely I am only chronicling the contrarieties of opinion and feeling that existed in the Imperialist camp. CROSS PURPOSES 19 Now if this had been the only division in the party and in the country, it would not have mattered, as the two sides agreed on the practical part of the policy. Both were equally determined to place the British Empire in a position to reduce the German Empire to the degree of a second-rate Power if she moved towards a hegemony, and to keep ahead of her in naval shipbuilding. But there were other sections whose secession would have wrecked the Liberal Government, and who were fundamentally opposed to the policy. First there were the commercial non-interventionists, Cob- denites, Gladstonians and George Washingtonians, who objected to meddling in continental quarrels, and knew that huge profits could be made out of a war by neutrals supplying the combatants with war materials. With them on the practical point were the Quakers, always important in Liberal party politics, objecting to war as sinful. Also, of course, the many members who were simply incap- able of foreign policy. The attitude of the Labor Party was not so simple. Though there was and is plenty of British Bulldog Jingoism in the rank and file of the Labor Party, and also among its leaders, the dynamic section, to which the party owed its formation and which supplies most of its ideas, are mainly Socialists and Internationalists who well know that the traditions of the British Lion have no future, and that the interests of all proletarians are identical and, as between one country and another, pacific. They were, it is true, far more determined to overthrow the Hohenzollernist C 2 20 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS Junkerdom than the Jingos; but they wished to destroy Junkerdom both at home and abroad by a combination of Labor at home and abroad, whereas the capitalist Jingos aimed simply at the supremacy of British over German Junkerdom. Further, the Labor Party itself was divided into idealist Pacifists who wished to stop the war, and Realists who knew that the war must be fought to a finish, and who hoped that when Junkers fell out working men would come to their own. On one point, however, Labor was unanimous and irreconcilable. The Liberal Imperialists had been led by their military advisers, by French pressure, and, from the Labor point of view, largely by class instinct, into the stupendous moral blunder of allowing themselves to be made accomplices in an open and flagrant crime against civilization committed by the French Republic. This was nothing less than an alliance with the abominable despotism of the Russian Tsardom. On the surface the military advantages of this alliance seemed unquestionable. Russia com- manded the Eastern frontiers of the German and Austrian Empires, and could thus complete the famous encirclement (Einkreisung) which was the masterstroke of the Allied strategy. No better illustration could be found of the shallowness of professional military realism. The Tsardom, long obsolete, and rotten with corruption, cruelty, ignorance, and the incoherence, contradiction, and weakness which are necessary conditions of auto- cracy, conducted as it must be by thousands of deputy autocrats in no sort of organic relation to CROSS PURPOSES 21 one another, was tottering on the brink of revolu tion, as the Labor Party well knew. It was there- fore perilously untrustworthy as a military ally. Besides, it was clearly the business of western Europe to support Germany, in the interest of civilization, against a barbarous anachronism like the Tsardom. No western Power could conspire with Russia to overthrow Germany without putting itself hopelessly in the wrong morally, unless it could prove that there was no safe alternative, and that self-preservation drove it to this desperate step. But no such proof was possible. It is true that France and England needed an additional ally. They were faced by a threefold alliance of Germany, Austria, and Italy (the Triplice); and the Kaiser was cultivating a ridiculous but dangerous entente with Islam, which meant Turkey. A triple alliance was therefore necessary to England and France. But there was an alternative to an alliance with Russia, very obvious to a democrat, if not to a countryhouse diplomatist. That al- ternative was an alliance with the United States of America. Events have proved that this was the right alternative not only morally but militarily. Why was it not chosen? Well, there were diplomatic as well as strategic reasons against it. The United States were still in the Washingtonian phase of non-intervention; and the Imperialism of the late Colonel Roosevelt could not see very far, though it could see very red. It could see just far enough to understand that it was not America's business to maintain Britain as ruler of the seas and holder of the 22 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS European balance of power. The United States had no more interest in these British traditions than the Central Empires themselves. To bring them into the Alliance it would have been necessary to appeal to their interest in the peace of the world and in the substitution of Federal Republicanism for Empire as the prevalent form of government in Europe. An alliance of the United States with Russia was quite out of the question. There was nothing for it but either to remodel the anti- German combination so as to substitute America for Russia, or leave it as it was, and accept the French alliance with Russia as part of it. Such a remodelling was beyond Sir Edward Grey's capacity, and highly uncongenial to his class traditions and sympathies as a typical British Junker. He took to the Russian alliance as a duck takes to water; and the Tsardom, with the French Republic in one pocket and the British Empire in the other, abandoned the little self-restraint which the scruples of the democratic west had hitherto imposed on it, and let itself go in Persia and elsewhere with the certainty that everything to its discredit would now be kept out of the British and French papers. From this time forth The Times no longer hailed the assassination of Grand Dukes and Governors of Finland with a very thinly paraphrased "Serve him right!"; and Russia's reputation rose as the Tsardom's conduct grew worse. Yet the attempt at conceal- ment was only half successful. Nothing could smother the thundering voice of Tolstoy, nor silence the thousand minor voices that clamored for • CROSS PURPOSES 23 judgment on the vilest surviving tyranny in Europe. Paris swallowed a visit from the Tsar, and even made much of him; but when he pro- posed to visit England the agitation against him was so furious that Mr Asquith dared not allow him to land, much less confess to the Labor Party and to the people that the Liberal Imperialists had virtually joined hands with the Tsar in a secret compact against a much more civilized neighboring State. The Russian connection thus forced Mr Asquith to a secrecy which did not stop short of flat denials, made by himself and Sir Edward Grey in reply to questions in the House of Commons on more than one occasion, that there was any binding engagement between Britain and France. The two Powers actually went to the length of exchanging letters stating formally that there was no binding engagement; so that these denials might be tech- nically true. But none the less they were misleading and were meant to be misleading. A true reply to the questions would have run There is no binding engagement between England and France in the legal sense; but if Germany attacks France, whether through Belgium or not, and England does not send the British fleet and an expeditionary force to France's aid, England will be dishonored to the last page of her history." That would have been the truth: anything short of it had the effect of a lie; and naturally, when the truth came out later, those who were deceived refused to make the fine distinctions with which Mr Asquith and Sir Edward saved their consciences and their party. And so the secrecy of the Russian alliance went te 24 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS on, with all its evil consequences. It was so evident that Sir Edward Grey was unequal to the situation, that in desperation I, as a private individual, suggested a line of action when Prince Lichnowsky was appointed German ambassador in London. Under the impression that well known authors and sociologists enjoy the same consideration in England as in Germany, he invited me to visit him at the embassy, and even went so far as to say that a place should always be ready for me at his table. As it happened, I had just induced The Daily Chronicle to place its columns at my disposal for a proposed solution of the Franco- German difficulty. I had urged that for the sake of averting war, England should, as the holder of the balance of power, reinforce her army, and declare, officially and unequivocally, that if Ger- many attacked France, England would throw in her sword on the side of France, balancing this threat by a counter assurance that if Germany were attacked by Russia or France or both, she would defend Germany. I pointed out that this would have the effect of producing a combination of England, France and Germany to keep the peace of Europe; that the weaker Northern States, Belgium and Holland, Norway, Sweden and Den- mark, would immediately join it; that the United States would have every reason to do the same; and that the final result would be a combination of western democracy against war from the Carpathians to the Rocky Mountains. The dead silence which followed this proposal in the Press was inevitable; for as I was not a party politician, CROSS PURPOSES 25 nor a famous cricketer, jockey, or glovefighter, neither the political columns nor the stunt columns of the British Press were concerned with me: I might as well have been Fielding, Goldsmith, Blake, Dickens, Hardy, Wells or Bennett for all the attention my political ideas received from the newspapers. But the newspapers have very little to do with diplomacy; and my suggestion was offered to the diplomatists. Unfortunately, it demanded certain positive qualities in which Sir Edward Grey was deficient. He was He was a busily agreeable drifter, trusting to amiable conferences to smooth over difficulties, and compliant with estab- lished power to such a degree that not even the Denshawai atrocity in Egypt nor the outrageous proceedings of the Russians in Persia had moved him to make himself disagreeable to the Anglo- Egyptian officials or to the Russian court, even though the cost of his compliance was the infamy of his country. To invite him to do anything with the sword of England except hide it nervously behind his back and smile, and invite Europe to tea parties grandiloquently described as conferences, was to harness a mouse to a steam roller. The only comment reported to me on my proposal was that if I were in the Foreign Office, there would be a European war in a fortnight. As I was not in the Foreign Office, there was a European war in eighteen months. The policy of drift proved, even on its own shewing, no more pacific than the policy of action. As to Mr Asquith, I doubt whether Mr Asquith ever really had any policy at all. His years of 26 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS office were very prosperous and comfortable years. for the governing class; and as he shared that comfort and prosperity, and was blessed with an easy disposition and a ready talent that could deal plausibly with a difficulty when it arose, but could neither anticipate it nor remember it for a single day, he took things as he found them and would have been content to leave them as he found them, if only all the sleeping dogs had been allowed to lie by less placid spirits. Lord Haldane's case was different; but he was unfortunately neither Prime Minister nor Foreign Secretary: he was busy reorganizing the army and trying to keep the Kaiser from playing with fire. And, being a Scot with a trained and exercised intellect, he was not trusted by his English colleagues, who preferred not to know what they were doing lest they should become unable to deny it or perhaps even to do it without pains in their consciences. And so my proposal inevitably came to nothing. But when I had formulated it, I took advantage of Prince Lichnowsky's hospitality, and mooted it to him. He put it aside without a moment's consideration as uncalled-for, on the ground that Sir Edward Grey was one of the greatest living statesmen, and the truest friend of Germany. I could not, especially in the presence of Von Kühl- mann, lift up my hands and exclaim, with Huss, "Sancta simplicitas!" Besides, it was Lich- nowsky, not I, who was going to the stake. If the war came, my side was the English side; and, as an Irishman, I was facing it with my eyes open and with no British patriotic illusions. It CROSS PURPOSES 27 was not my business to warn the Prince that he was walking straight into an ambush; for if a war had to come, I wanted his master to be beaten. I changed the conversation to neutral topics of art and literature, and concluded that I could not, without something like personal treachery, follow up the acquaintance the ambassador had so frankly offered me. Nothing further passed between us on the subject of European politics; and I spoke with the Prince only once again, at a private concert, not about foreign policy. I liked him ; and nobody could help liking his wife. They were not only charming people, but clever, unaffected, generous and cultured in the best sense. In fact it was Lichnowsky's generosity and intelligence that made him a dupe. If he had been a little more of a fool and a little less of a gentleman, he might not have made the mistake of giving our di- plomatists credit for his own best qualities. His so- called revelations shew that he took exceptional powers of observation and a very considerable literary talent into London society. I hope he has forgiven me for not being more frank with him; but besides the purely militarist considera- tions already stated, I can plead that at this time my knowledge of the situation was built, not upon the facts and documents and disclosures which have since become public, but upon the British tradition, on current circumstantial evidence, and on my estimate of the character of the parties. I could not then have convinced any foreigner, much less a professional diplomatist like Prince Lichnowsky, that a person known to him only as 28 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS وو a playwright and a man of letters could instruct him in foreign affairs. I even doubt whether he would have been allowed to invite me to the embassy had the political side of my career been known to him as the literary side was. Socialists are not privileged in Imperial circles in Germany. After this failure, there was nothing to be done but drift along in the hope that as there was neither a Napoleon nor a Bismarck in the field, and Sir Edward Grey was only one of a dozen diplo- matic drifters, Europe might drift into a new situation without a collision. The hope was disappointed. England did not "muddle through this time. The Serbs assassinated the Austrian heir apparent; Austria sent a furious ultimatum to Serbia; Russia rallied to the defence of the Slav and mobilized against Austria; and Germany, being Austria's ally, and well aware that France was the ally of Russia, dashed at France in the hope of smashing her before Russia could bring her cumbrous forces to bear effectively. Then the British battery was unmasked at last, and the ambush let loose on the doomed empires that had presumed to challenge England's naval supremacy and to move towards Antwerp. When I called it the last spring of the British Lion," the Lion was so pleased that he could not help cheering my remark even whilst he ground his teeth with fury at me for tearing off the sheepskin in which he was still masquerading. ' Up to the last Sir Edward Grey clung to the sheepskin. He could perhaps have prevented the war even at the eleventh hour by declaring, as CROSS PURPOSES } 29 Sazonoff and Cambon implored him to declare, that Britain would fight if Germany attacked France, and by telling the Kaiser that if Russia attacked him he might trust to western Democracy to allow him a fair fight with his barbarous eastern enemy. Had France repudiated that honorable understanding-and it is hard to believe that public opinion in France would have tolerated such a repudiation-the Kaiser would have had only France and Russia to fight instead of virtually the whole world. But Sir Edward would not. He fussed; he palpitated; he begged for another little conference; he would answer for nothing, not even for a defence of Belgium. He did nothing and said everything except the one thing that might have kept Germany's hands off France. Had he said it, he would have baulked the spring of the British Lion. And the British Lion did not intend to be baulked. From that moment until the Lion had his prey helpless in his claws there was only one really valid word in England about peace; and that was that those who preached it were the enemies of their country. Peace pro- posals were called peace offensives. I am very far from condemning this attitude. I could make a fairly strong case for it as having the root of the actual situation in it. Although M. Clemenceau has since committed himself to the opinion of Cambon and Sazonoff, not to mention my own, that the war would have been staved off if Germany had been warned of the certainty of British intervention, I can conceive myself doing rationally what Lord Grey did instinctively. If the 30 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS war had to come, it was important that it should come before the German fleet was as powerful as the British. And England can hardly be reproached for fighting and conquering, instead of contriving that Germany should exhaust herself in a struggle with Russia from which she might well have emerged more formidable than ever. But England cannot claim both the laurel and the olive. If she did everything to postpone the war except the thing that might conceivably have postponed it, History will certainly conclude that she did not postpone it simply because at bottom she did not want to postpone it. It is significant that none of us, British Imperialist or other, put any heart into preventing it. CHAPTER III THE BRITISH LION, THE BLOCKADE, AND THE FREEDOM OF THE SEAS THE reader will now fully understand the burst. of feeling against the Government which the out- break of the war provoked in the British parlia- ment among those who had not been in the secret. The old Liberal Non-Interventionists were furious at having been duped for eight years. The Quakers were horrified. The Labor leaders raged because a compact which involved the lives of millions of men had been made behind the backs of those men ; and the Russian alliance was loathsome to them. Lord Morley and Mr Trevelyan, with Mr John Burns, wiped the dust of the Government from their feet. Socialist Internationalists like Messrs Ramsay Macdonald, Snowden, and Anderson made up their minds that though the German Junkers must be brought down, they should be brought down on the heads of the British Junkers who had planned the war. The Press branded all the malcontents as pro-Germans, and described them as hunted fugitives; but the enormous applause with which they were received in large popular meetings and congresses shewed that the working 31 ( 32 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS classes were not hoodwinked as completely as the middle classes. To avoid a defeat of the Govern- ment in the face of the enemy, Mr Asquith had to make another secret compact: this time with the Opposition leaders, who agreed to support him against his deserters on condition that he sur- rendered all points in controversy between them for the duration of the war. But this did not save the party for long. The Opposition soon wearied of allowing the Liberals all the credit of conducting the war, and the loaves and fishes of office as well. They betrayed the compact to the country and forced a coalition on Mr Asquith. This revelation finished his career. A secret understanding with France to defeat German ambition was one thing: a secret plot with Lord Lansdowne and Mr Bonar Law to throw over the Liberal program was quite another. The strain was too great. Mr Lloyd George, who had come into the war party at the twelfth hour on the popular but really quite irrelevant issue of the violation of Belgian neutrality, not only became Prime Minister and War Lord in place of Mr Asquith, but presently threw him out of the coalition as a negligible quantity, Sir Edward Grey being "kicked upstairs" out of the Foreign Office into the House of Lords. One would have supposed that the two discarded statesmen would have waited only for the signing of the armistice to turn the tables on their supplanter by claiming and proving that they and Lord Haldane had, in spite of Mr Lloyd George, ci-devant "pro-Boer", planned and executed the magnificently successful stroke which had THE FREEDOM OF THE SEAS 33 rescued the British Empire from the contempt into which its very poor military record in the South African war had plunged it, and restored it to its ancient glory as the most formidable Power in the world and the arbiter of Europe. But having drifted into their policy on the French initiative and carried it out with true English empiricism, they hardly knew what they had done. Lord Haldane, who did know, did not let himself entirely loose until after the election. Yet it was on a hint from a speech of his that Mr Asquith, three days before the poll, suddenly made a belated bid for public support as the man to whom England owed her perfect preparation for the war. But as he had allowed the public to be stuffed for four years with the legend that England had been utterly unprepared for the war, and had never harbored a thought of unkindness to Germany, and as, further, the Northcliffe Press immediately suppressed his bid as completely as they sup- pressed the speeches of Mr Ramsay Macdonald, nobody noticed Mr Asquith's volte-face; and he was heavily defeated in his contest for the seat he had held easily for thirty years. The day after the election, Lord Haldane, in a long letter to The Times which that paper would have refused to publish six months earlier even if Lord Haldane could have been induced to write it at the risk of shaking the British moral, tore away the last shreds of the Great Camouflage; and the Lion of Waterloo at last stood revealed, with the sheep- skin and the ass's head flung off, and the once terrible Kaiser helpless in his claws. Nine hundred D 34 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS thousand Britons lay dead around the pedestal; but Britannia did not grudge the price: she will never ask Lord Haldane " What hast thou done with my legions?" Unfortunately, the empiricism of Britannia, which enabled her to plan and win bit by bit without connecting one bit with another and thereby arriving at a clear consciousness of her policy, now prevents her from seeing that, having thrown over the pretence that she was innocently unpre- pared for the war, she cannot now come to the Peace Conference in an attitude of virtuous in- dignation founded on that pretence. She has not as yet put two and two together: her Press and her politicians still denounce Germany for the crime of preparing for war in the very same issues in which they quote Lord Haldane's descrip- t'on of how he outprepared the Germans. The Blackguards of England, a noisy but not, I hope, numerous undergrowth which has been tolerated and encouraged during the war to a disgraceful and dangerous extent, have openly demanded a judicial murder of the Kaiser, a wanton air-raid on Berlin, and the subsequent enslavement of the German people by impossible ransoms for a century to come. It flatters these people to hear that we were stronger and cleverer than the Germans, and that the Press photograph of the British Lion as half sheep, half donkey, was a fake. They are much less willing to learn that the German devil is as absurd a fable as the British angel. They want to revel in the consciousness of being victorious, successful and powerful, shocking THE FREEDOM OF THE SEAS 35 humbugs if you will, but mighty, crafty, born rulers of men; yet they do not want to give the Germans fair play they want moral excuses for skinning them alive; and on this point they must be resolutely tackled and held back and made to behave themselves. If no British statesman has courage and character enough to bully them, Mr Wilson and General Smuts must. If not, they may provoke a world situation in which anti-British com- binations will be formed which I dare not describe in detail; for they might spring into being at the flourish of a pen if that pen were too explicit. Suffice it to say that the destruction of Germany's prestige has left the British Empire in the position formerly held by her defeated foe: namely, that of the most dangerous and widely dreaded Imperial Power left in the world. And as America has helped to place her there, it is now necessary to go carefully into America's position in the matter. It is clear that Mr Wilson cannot in the Peace Conference take his stand on British grounds. The ultimatum to Serbia, the violation of the neutrality of Belgium, the attack on France, are tenable points in our case because we went to war the moment Belgium was invaded; but the United States did not move in the matter, and are there- fore out of court as far as these particular counts in the indictment against Germany are concerned. They not only remained out of the war but made a great deal of money out of it until the submarine campaign produced a situation in which neutrality was no longer possible. In this the United States behaved very prudently. They were D 2 36 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS able to give invaluable assistance to the Allies as neutrals. When they drew the sword at last they were able to come in as the determining factor in the conflict and thus make themselves the holders of the balance of power. In the meantime they had rid themselves of all their financial indebted- ness to Europe, and compelled England to admit them to an increased share of the carrying trade. Above all, they had strengthened the moral position of Republicanism by producing at the right moment a man who, like Washington or Lincoln, easily dominated a colossal situation as spokesman of the highest ideals, whilst British and French demagogues could not rise above the rhetoric of the prize ring and the slop of the cinema "sub-title." Yet even as England, with a very strong case and a still stronger hand, has discounted both the strength of her case and the prestige of her strength by substituting a ridiculous melodrama for the truth, the United States seem equally incapable of understanding their own position and equally determined to pose as the knights errant of the distressed damsels who have been rescued from the dungeons of Kaiser Bill, the Demon Enchanter of Hunland. They will have it that their swords leaped from their scabbards to avenge Edith Cavell, and that the tearing up of the Scrap of Paper (now ignored by the Belgians themselves in the hour of their triumph) was to them as the rending of the veil of the temple. All this is very silly, and would make Mr Wilson very ridiculous in Paris if he attempted to impose it on his THE FREEDOM OF THE SEAS 37 Allies there, much less on the Germans. The truth is, the foreign policy of the United States, like that of Britain, of France, of Germany, of Austria, of Italy, of Turkey, of Bulgaria, of Rumania and all the other belligerents, has been not a romantic policy but a policy of self-preservation ; and such it will have to remain until the establish- ment of a supernational legislature, tribunal, and police makes it possible for nations to reject, as the principle of their foreign policy, the one prin- ciple that knows no law. Meanwhile all diplomatists, however they may sympathize with Mr Wilson, must prepare for the next war as a means of avoiding it, knowing well all the time that such preparation will in the end get on the nerves of all the Powers, and precipitate the catastrophe. The United States, for instance, will have to place herself in a position to face the combined fleets of Britain and Japan; Japan will have to place herself in a position to face the combined fleets of the United States and Britain; and as fleets in the future will be not only marine, but submarine and celestial, the inland Powers will enter into the competition and try to make themselves proof against such a blockade as has just forced Germany to capitulate. It is idle to hope that any moral protest will suspend this manœuvring for the inside grip in the next war. If every one of the Powers had in office a Labor party boiling over with pacific enthusiasm, and had inscribed on its national arms "Proletarians of all lands, unite," none the less their diplomatists and soldiers, in the absence of a League of Nations, 38 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS would have to prepare for the worst as carefully as if Junkerism were still in command of all the earth. If I myself were Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs or for War in a Labor or any other Government in England, I should resume the work of Lord Haldane and Sir Douglas Haig without a moment's intermission; and if people talked to me about the League of Nations I should say that an army and navy in hand is worth ten Leagues of Nations in the bush, and that as long as the League did not exist I should act with reference to the armaments and Governments which do exist. It is necessary to enforce this hard fact, because the earth is full of amiable people who believe that moral steam, unlike physical steam, is independent of engines and organization. It is of course nothing of the sort. The reason that lust for money and power prevail as they do against the nobler senti- ments is simply that the people who want more money and more power have organized arma- ments to coerce those who desire to establish the kingdom of heaven on earth, and have also organized the Press and the public schools to persuade the masses that the pursuit of more money and more power is virtuous, heroic, and patriotic. This they do with the enormous advantage of being single- minded in the knowledge of what they want and the determination to get it at all costs (though, having got it, they become at once the most charming people imaginable). They are single- minded not only as to ends, but to means, the means being always the presentation to their opponents of the clear and universally intelligible THE FREEDOM OF THE SEAS 39 alternative "Submit or be killed." In the mean- time the idealists are singleminded neither as to ends nor means, being a motley crew "with a hundred religions and only one sauce," carrying individual- ism to such a degree that each of them confronts the enemy in a minority, though if they combined they would be in a majority of at least four to one. The singleminded "divide and govern," because they have a common religion and a common philo- sophy of life. The religion may be the worship of Manımon, and the philosophy that of a pirate; but they are all effectively agreed on it, and will cut throats for its sake; and so they will triumph until their opponents learn the lesson and find unity in a common religion and philosophy of their own. As the League of Nations will be an attempt to focus the coercive forces, moral and physical, of idealism, it must not be conceived as a Tol- stoyan celebration, but as a very vigorous organ- ization of resistance to evil, like a municipal police force. Nor will it make an end of the tyranny of self-preservation; for what else but that eternal tyranny is driving all the more thoughtful states- men, Jingo as well as Internationalist, to insist on or at least accept the League? The next war, if permitted to occur, will be no "sport of kings," no game of chance played with live soldiers and won by changing them into dead ones, but a scientific attempt to destroy cities and kill civilians. Not the soldiers alone, but all of us, will have to live miserably in holes in the ground, afraid to look at the sky lest our white faces should 40 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS betray us to a hostile aeroplane; for our houses will be heaps of charred bricks. The existing London record is a 600 lb. bomb which destroyed six houses and rendered twenty uninhabitable; and this bomb is already a middle-sized one. What the record may be for those unfortunate Rhine towns on which, during the last year of the war, the War Office boasted of having dropped 100 bombs for every one dropped in England by the Germans, is not yet known. What is known is that the British aeroplanes did what no German plane attempted in England. They swooped down. into the streets of Treves and used their machine guns there. Under such conditions towns are not inhabitable; industry is not practicable; and life is not bearable. The notion that war is a bene- ficent gymnastic, moral and spiritual, is reduced to absurdity: one might as well make the same plea for hurricanes and earthquakes, or pretend that because a man is the better for swimming, he will, a fortiori, be the better for drowning. And yet the sensational terrors of the high explosive, hurled from the clouds or shot up from the depths of the sea, are trifling compared to the horrors of the blockade. As the fumes of battle clear away, it becomes more and more apparent that the war was won by the British navy, at a stupendous cost to the whole world, both belli- gerent and neutral. Not bombardment, but starva- tion and civil ruin, have brought England's rivals to their knees; and this starvation and ruin have fallen heavily not only on neutral countries, but on England's own Allies, who have escaped the THE FREEDOM OF THE SEAS 41 fate of Russia and Germany only by being rationed from England. Russia was the first victim, even during her alliance with England. Then came the revolution, which stopped supplies from Britain. The stoppage forced Russia to make peace with the Central Empires to avert starvation; but the opening of her western frontier to German trade could not save her, because Germany had already been driven by the blockade to plunder Belgium to the last saucepan lid, to build her submarines out of the vitals of her own fleet, and to leave her- self without tanks to fight the Allied machine guns. From the Ural Mountains to the shores of the North Sea there was starvation everywhere; and from Warsaw eastward there were whole countries of which it was affirmed without improbability that there was no child under seven years of age left alive. Even in America, no less than in Holland and the Scandinavian lands, large classes with small but formerly sufficient fixed incomes had those incomes deprived of half their purchasing power. After such a terrible demonstration of the might of the British navy, its possession and control by a single State must appear so dangerous to all the others that no one who grasped the situation shared the surprise of the innocents when the rejoicings over the armistice were suddenly jarred upon by the claim that the United States must possess an equally formidable fleet, and by the announcements of Admiral Badger and Mr Daniels as to the American ship-building program. Thus we are back again at the point reached when the intention of Germany to build a rival 42 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS fleet was realized in England, and the preparations for the great war began. Just as the lieutenants of the German and British navies, during the race of naval armaments which culminated at the Battle of Jutland, looked forward to "der Tag" when the preparations would be brought to the test of warfare, the lieutenants of the United States navy are already looking forward, quite properly and inevitably, to "The Day" when the British and American fleets shall fight for that power to blockade without which no nation can ever again feel safe whilst war remains tolerated as an institution. The duty of securing that power is henceforth the sacred duty of all patriots as long as the present anarchy between nations leaves them with no security against ruin and subjugation except the power of self-preservation. 66 The more frankly this situation is faced the more intolerable does it become, and the more over- whelming seems the the importance of President Wilson's demand for the freedom of the seas.' The small change of that freedom no longer pre- sents any serious difficulty as between England and America, because America very early in the war forced England to pay for contraband taken from American ships; and it is not pretended that England, as a great carrying nation with a tradition of Free Trade, abuses her power by attempting to make private roads of indispensable maritime highways in peace. The real difficulty is that she can, and does, ruin half the world to save herself in time of war, and is, indeed, unable to obtain a decision by any other means; for it is evident that THE FREEDOM OF THE SEAS 43 had all the ports been open and all the seas free throughout the war the armies might have fought for ever without having to surrender to famine. Indeed this is a vital part of England's case for the command of the sea; for if she could have won the war without it she would have no plea for insisting on retaining it except sheer arrogance. But its operation has proved also that the com- mand of the sea means a power of life and death over Europe; and this constitutes a hegemony against which the world will rebel as surely as it rebelled against the mere threat of a Pan-German hegemony. England is still bound to fight to the last man and the last penny she can spare to main- tain her command of the seas. But the United States and all the other non-British Powers are thereby driven to an equally stubborn resolution that no single State in the world shall command the seas. There is no possible solution except the League of Nations solution as long as the problem exists. It cannot be solved by the American fleet sinking the British fleet: that would only transfer the command of the seas to America; and an American command of the seas would be just as objectionable as a British one. The problem might be removed by the two fleets going to the bottom simultaneously, each in trying to sink the other. But that is not an event which can become the object of British or American foreign policy. The effective solution must be that the British fleet shall be sinkable by the combined fleets of the other Powers, but not by any one of them, or any combination of them 44 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS that could easily be formed with a view to hegemony. And this state of things can be broug ...about only by a League of Nations. The main question, then, to be considered is the practicability of an efficient League of Nations. That it is practicable within certain limits, and that those limits will not disable it as a bar to any renewal of Armageddon in Europe and North America, I hope to demonstrate convin- cingly. But I must first deal with the Peace Con- ference as the nucleus of the League, and with the various interests which confront Mr Wilson as the advocate of his famous fourteen points. CHAPTER IV FEDERAL REPUBLICANISM SUCCEEDS TO THE HOLY ROMAN EMPIRE. MR. WILSON AS CHARLE- MAGNE. THE IRISH QUESTION. THE divisions in the internal affairs of Europe, reflected as they are in the United States, will tax Mr Wilson's diplomacy to the limit, and may possibly drive him to the point at which he may have to act as master of the situation rather than as negotiator and conciliator. The coalitions which the war has produced in all the allied countries have had to make a common profession of abhor- rence of militarism and autocracy, and of an ardent desire to "make the world safe for democracy. But all the coalitions contain elements well known to be quite as militarist, quite as monarchical, quite as hostile to democracy as the most bigoted Hohenzollern or Hapsburg. These elements, just because they are ultra- militarist, become necessarily dominant in a state of war, which imposes militarism and suspends popular liberties even in the most democratic States. It goes without saying that in the monarchical countries they are strongly anti-republican, and took their part in the war to get the better of the 45 46 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS monarchies of Germany and Austria, not to abolish them. The moment their operations had the unintended effect of making Russia a republic, they turned against Russia, and are now actually making war on her with the object of restoring order, which to them means nothing else than the monarchical order. When they overshot their mark in the same way in the Central Empires, they began to use the blockade as a means of crushing the German Republicans. They have, of course, a hundred plausible excuses for each step they take or propose in this direction; but not one of these excuses would be made by them if the boot were on the other leg, and the effect of the war had been to upset republics and substitute monarchies for them. When they deposed the King of Greece for being a pro-German, they did not impose a Republic on Greece with Mr Venizelos as President, which would have been the simplest matter in the world. Instead, they set Constantine's son on the throne. When the Kaiser fell, the only question they raised was whether his son or his grandson should suc- ceed him. They call all Republicans except French and American ones Bolsheviks; and they would talk about President Wilson and President Poin- caré exactly as their great grandfathers talked about Washington if they dared. There is no concealment of all this; and it is not here alleged to the discredit of the Royalists. They have a right to their opinions, for which there is a great deal to be said, as the condition of the common people in France and America no less than in Russia and Poland shews. Democracy as it exists to-day FEDERAL REPUBLICANISM 47 has little more to say for itself than that its hopes and possibilities are infinite, whereas the possi- bilities of oligarchy and autocracy are limited to such an extent by their fundamental economic and psychic unsoundness that they can hardly be said to hold out any hopes at all. But they are not fraudulent except when they pretend to be demo- cratic; and of this particular fraud the republics are ten times more guilty than the monarchies. Lincoln's famous formula of government of the people by the people for the people was always impossible as to its second count; for the people can no more govern than they can write plays or use the infinitesimal calculus. Even government by consent of the governed is impossible as long as people are so uneducated politically that they will not consent to be governed at all, and must therefore be governed, under one pretence or an- other, by main force. But government of the people for the people is possible, and is the goal of democracy. Now no political system at present existing on earth attains that goal, or is even visibly tending towards it. It has proved safer to be a frank traitor under the Hohenzollerns, like Lieb- knecht, even in war time, than to be a Con- servative Non-Interventionist in the United States of America; and Mr Wilson goes into the Peace Conference with the knowledge that if recrimina- tions begin as to the condition of the people, the reasonableness of the distribution of the national income, the exploitation of child labor, the preva- lence of Lynch law, the toleration of heterodox or anti-governmental opinion (even under Mr Wilson's 48 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS own rule), the general level of culture, the cruelty of the criminal codes and the guarantees for justice in their administration, the honesty of the police, and the freedom of municipal and national politics from corruption, American republicanism will come out of the comparison with constitutional monarchy so badly that it will be very difficult for him with any countenance to take the position of a moral dictator imposing superior American political insti- tutions on the rest of the world. Feudal barons are not so much worse than beef barons, or Hohen- zollern and Hapsburg kings than railway and kerosine kings, that he can offer a substitution of one for the other as a contribution to the emancipa- tion of the human race. The most convincing democratic asset he has to shew is himself; and he may feel some delicacy about harping on that. Moreover, what has just been said about the formal win-the-war coalitions of Europe is equally true about the virtual win-the-war coalition which stands behind Mr Wilson. Senator Lodge is hardly more of a democrat in foreign affairs than Lord Curzon; and the latest American elections have gone Mr Lodge's way. President Wilson will need that rare and mystical force of character that acts "on the evidence of things unseen" in the face of a very depressing mass of contrary evidence of things very glaringly visible. He has made an enormous impression in Europe as a great man in America he seems to be regarded merely as the figure-head of his political party. The prophet is not without honor save in his own FEDERAL REPUBLICANISM 49 country. In Europe the President has become the banner bearer of the reserves of conscience and honor which the popular spoutings of M Clemenceau and Mr Lloyd George only offend; but some- times a surprised face is seen here when this is admitted; and it is always the face of an American, and quite as likely an American Democrat as an American Republican. Thus we have the curious spectacle of an American statesman going into a European conference with a tremendous European moral backing, and a relatively feeble American one. When he asked for an expression of American support it was deliberately denied to him. He could not ask for an expression of European support; but it has been volunteered to him by every available means. Europe has earned the same right to say "our Wilson " as Germany earned to say unser Shakespear." All Europe hails him as a godsend half America groans under him as an affliction. It cannot be helped: no man can be great and popular at the same time before his death except at a distance; but there are times. when the neighbors of illustrious men are in danger of making themselves ridiculous by the familiarity which expresses itself in the old formula " Woodrow Wilson a great man! Why, I knew his father.” Rightly or wrongly, Europe is deeply impressed by Wilson, and is not impressed at all by the thousands of American ward bosses who feel superior to him without having succeeded in making Europe aware of their existence; and that fact must be accepted for the moment unless American democracy wishes to be set down as a political failure which E 50 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS has accidentally produced a greater individual success than it is capable of appreciating. With all this in view we can see the Peace Conference as it really must be. It must consist largely of anti-democrats and anti-republicans who, by choosing their phrases prudently, can profess their real views with less risk than their opponents can contradict them. It will consist to some extent of democrats and republicans who have lost the courage of their opinions by living in a continual minority, and fighting vainly against a public school system by which every genera- tion, no matter what phase of enlightenment it may have been born into through the efforts of some gifted and lucky band of reformers, is deliberately replunged into the ideas of the reign of Henry VIII; so that the stone of Sisyphus rolls back on the wretched reformers every thirty years, and re-establishes the ideas of a feudalism thoroughly corrupted by capitalism. That is to say, all the members of the Conference will be Opportunists, though some of them will be seeking opportunities for reaction and some for progress. And the Reactionists, though ostensibly the anti- popular party, will be fortified by the certainty that their views can always be made to appeal strongly to popular prejudice, ignorance, and arrogance; whilst the reformers, ostensibly the party of the people, will have more cause to dread popular persecution than to depend on popular support. In such a miserable situation political ambition, without scruple or principle, goes far. The greed and rancor which abuse victory by grasping at FEDERAL REPUBLICANISM 51 plunder and vengeance with both hands open and both eyes shut, go still further, because mere ambition will comply with them as the cheapest road to success. There is only one force that can beat both; and that force is the entirely mystic force of evolution applied through the sort of living engine we call the man of principle. Principle is the motive power in the engine: its working qualities are integrity and energy, conviction and courage, with reason and lucidity to shew them the way. It is because Europe knows in its heart that only such a living engine can dominate the faithless, the conventional, the feeble, the greedy, the intimidated, the parliamentarily demoralized figure- heads of the Conference, that Europe is proclaiming President Wilson as that man; not yet sure that he will hold out to the end as he has begun, but quite sure that there is no hope from the others. If he fails, Europe will either settle down in despair to drudge along until the next war is ready to engulf it, or else throw official and demo- cratic parliaments and conferences to the winds, and try Syndicalism, Bolshevism, Spartacus dic- tatorship, and even intentional chaos and anarchy in order that they may work out their natural remedy through what bloodshed and destruction may be necessary sooner than trust any longer to established institutions that can do nothing but prepare for holocausts of which each as it approaches threatens to be the day of doom for civilization. Here, then, is no little diplomatic job which any one of half a dozen Cabinet fixtures E 2 52 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS might do as well as any other, but a labor of Hercules only to be achieved by a man who is hors concours: a genuine Worthy, too democratic to be a demagogue. For a mere demagogue, rallying the Progressives and bullying the Reactionaries, will not suffice. Any political platform pugilist can rally and bully. There must be force of such a quality that it need do neither the force in the presence of which evil loses heart and goodwill takes it. One may say that, so far, the claim of the American political system to be superior to the European system rests mainly on the single fact that in America it has been possible on three crucial occasions in history for a man of this force to be placed at the head of affairs in the United States, whereas in Europe, though such men exist, they are hopelessly outside politics: place and power being divided between the hereditary aristocrat (that is to say the aristocrat who is not necessarily an aristocrat at all) and the ambitious demagogue who has energy and histrionic instinct without ex- ceptional intellect or exceptional character, and who is so dependent on electoral applause that when he gives way to a generous impulse and says some- thing really splendid, he runs away from it at the first hoot from the nearest cad. If the man who came to the top in America by election finds himself at the top in Europe by simple moral gravi- tation, then American Republicanism has some- thing to say for itself in spite of lynchings, Colorado labor wars, and child slaves in Carolina mills. That this phenomenon is genuinely Republican and not FEDERAL REPUBLICANISM 53 merely American is suggested by the fact that the one man whom the British Empire can claim as in the same class with President Wilson, and who has proved it by being admitted to the War Council without the smallest self-assertion as having an obvious natural right to that eminence, is General Smuts, a Republican by all his domi- nant characteristics and political antecedents, whose utmost modesty and good sense cannot enable him to help the British Government without a quaint air of helping a lame dog over a style. Now Mr Wilson's mission, I take it, is America's mission that is, to stand for Republicanism in Europe. The position of Republicanism changed greatly in Europe in the last years of the war, and even in its last hours. When the Tsardom fell, all the thrones rocked. When the Hohen- zollerns and Hapsburgs fell, Europe changed from a continent in which, outside little privileged Switzerland, one important republic and a few tolerated toy ones. were struggling to maintain a not highly respected existence amid a host of contemptuous kingdoms, menaced by legitimist pretenders within and hostile courts without, to a continent in which a handful of minor royalties, mostly the poor relations of the deposed emperors, hold on timidly to a few outlying minor thrones, diligently saving money for the inevitable day when they too must pack up and face the world as common citizens. The British throne alone stands steady, not without earnest professions that we are only "a crowned republic" after all, and being able to support that plea by pointing to the steady 54 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS growth of all the worst features of French and American Republicanism in our political life. The change is so enormous, and the circumstances of it so catastrophic, that Europe has not assimi- lated it yet. The extremely easy operation of putting the clock back recommends itself to a huge proportion of the people and of the governing classes as more feasible as well as more congenial than the very arduous operation of keeping it up to time. The Powers which are at present enter- taining the Kaiser in Holland (for no expert in London society is taken in by the nonsense in the Press about his being there of his own accord as an unwelcome intruder) are much more disposed to put him back in Berlin than to take chances with a Social-Democratic Republic. The Labor agitation has not prevented M Pichon from advocating war on the Russian Revolution as openly as Pitt did on the French Revolution. In short, just as the 1815 Allies, after making war on Napoleon in the character of the knights of liberty against tyranny, promptly re-established the Bour- bons when they had disposed of "the Corsican usurper" under pretence of ridding the world of Jacobinism, the Allies of 1919 may easily slip into a restoration of monarchy in Russia, Poland, Austria, and Germany under pretence of ridding the world of Bolshevism. Mr Wilson can hardly become an accomplice in such a backsliding. If he did, he would be entering on a course which would point to nothing short of the restoration of monarchy in the United States, and its imposition on the rest of the American FEDERAL REPUBLICANISM 55 continent. That reversion would not pay American Capitalism any better than it would please the American people; for Capitalism flourishes more luxuriantly in republics than in monarchies, and opens the political career much more widely to the commercial talent. There is a notion prevalent among the middle classes in England, especially the Liberal middle classes, that kings do not matter, as parliaments have now deprived them of their power. Those who see the governing classes from the inside know better. Reform, or change of any sort, is almost impossible when it touches the throne that is why reform is always beginning at the bottom, and never where it mostly should begin, at the top. We can get a Factory Code in the teeth of the Manchester School after a long struggle; but a University and Public School code, an Army code, a Landed Estates code, are not even thought of: not because they are not far more needed than the palliations of the lot of the poor which are the staple of would-be- progressive politics, but because the court and the country house, the public schools and the army, are practically above the law. Note, however, that it has been found impossible to impose this tyranny on the colonies. The attempt ended in America in the breaking away of New England, and the formation of a federal republic. To avoid the same disruption elsewhere, the British Empire had to grant to Canada, Australia and South Africa constitutions which assimilate them to the federated republics, and make it impossible to impose on them the monarchical conditions which 56 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS still prevail in London, and were supreme until the recent revolutions in Berlin, Vienna, and Petro- grad. Before the war one could say that the whole of North America and Australia, and a considerable part of Africa, had reached the federal republican stage of political development, and were visibly lost for ever to what all good Americans call "this king business." In the course of the war, the king business suddenly crashed in Russia, Germany, and Austria: that is, in the bulk of Europe, leaving a problem of political reconstruc- tion that can be solved only in one of two ways: a restoration, or a system of federated republics. The French Republic, One and Indivisible, is conceivable in Russia, but hardly possible, whereas it is neither conceivable nor possible in Germany and Austria. What is both conceivable and possible is republican federation. We do not want the Austrian Empire, to which provinces like Bosnia owe so much of their material civilization, replaced by half a dozen Mexicos any more than we want the Hapsburgs back again. Yet even a ramshackle empire may be an advance on an anarchy of warlike tribes. Let us not forget the experience of the United States. Federation is no more compatible than Empire with Secession. Federal Unions must keep together. No American can have the face to urge Bavaria and Prussia to break asunder instead of maintaining their organization in a German federated republic; and what is good for the German goose is good for the Austrian gander. No doubt present frontiers are unscientific and should be redrawn. But the only scientific frontiers FEDERAL REPUBLICANISM 57 are ethnographic frontiers; and until the League of Nations abolishes war the only politically possible frontiers are strategic frontiers, which are seldom ethnographic. Meanwhile the rule should be integration, not disruption. And here it may be asked what is to happen to the centralized tyranny of the British Isles. What about Ireland ? One quarter of Mr Wilson's constituents are either Irish or German; and, reasonably or unreasonably, they want him to settle both the German and Irish questions demo- cratically. The Irish question is very simple. Home Rule is nonsense, and always has been nonsense. Neither Gladstone nor Parnell, Redmond nor Mr Asquith, could draft a Home Rule Bill that had any sort of constitutional logic in it; and this not because they were overrated statesmen, but because they tried to conduct a surgical operation on two nations as if it concerned only one. Ireland must choose between being in the British Empire and being out of it. If she chooses to be out of it, it must be as a nominally independent State, like Greece or Belgium, whose recent experiences of nominal independence and actual subjugation are hardly encouraging; yet to attain even this position the Irish must wait for a miracle which will reduce the British Empire to impotence. In view of what has just happened the wait would be a long one. What is more, Separatist Ireland cannot count upon the sympathy of the United States, which in the Civil War of 1861 committed themselves to the principle of of Unionism at all costs. If, however, Ireland decides to remain in the 58 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS British Empire voluntarily she may fairly claim to be in it on the same terms as England. She cannot reasonably demand more or honorably accept less. Now it is impossible to effect this without making a new constitution for England as well as for Ireland. Ireland must be represented in a central parliament; but her representation in an English parliament is an outrage on England: that is why there must be distinct central and national parliaments. England suffers more from the absence of a national English parliament than Ireland, which, having no parliament of its own, has played the cuckoo in the House of Commons by thrusting the domestic affairs of Ireland upon it almost to the exclusion of English domestic affairs. Federation of the British Isles is the obvious solution. It is hard to see on what other lines Mr Wilson, as a Republican Federalist, can press for a settlement of the Irish question. His only ground for interfering is that the United States must be compromised and internally distracted by their alliance with Great Britain as long as the government of Ireland openly sets at nought every principle on which the alliance is supposed to be based. He certainly cannot suggest for Ireland a Secession which his own Federation denied to Virginia, Alabama, and the rest at the price of a most bloody civil war. No one seems yet to have noticed how imperative this question of the federation of the British Isles has become under the strain of the war and the danger of its recurrence. In imperial affairs there is no responsible government in Great Britain at FEDERAL REPUBLICANISM 59 all, because there is no imperial parliament. Parliament was not consulted as to whether we should go to war or not it was simply informed by the Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs that our forces had been placed at the disposition of the Franco-Russian Alliance the day before, and that we were members of the Alliance and already at war. Later on, when a treaty was made between the Allies that none of them should make peace until all the others were satisfied, a treaty obviously either impracticable or superfluous (it would have been broken by the Tsar if he had not been swept away, leaving it to be broken at Brest-Litovsk), the House of Commons was not asked for its views about it: the accomplished fact was announced without by-your-leave. The secret treaties which followed were not even announced. In short, for purposes of foreign policy the British Empire is governed by the Foreign Office and not by Parlia- ment. Parliament is supposed to be able to refuse to vote supplies, and thereby have the last word in the matter. In fact it has no such power; for a re- fusal to fight during a war actually in progress means national suicide. The war might conceivably have been prevented by an imperial parliament in 1906, when it was strategically begun by the Foreign Office, though even that is doubtful; for a reference to so well known a book as Mr H. G. Wells's War of the Worlds, published in 1898, will shew that even then an ultimatum to Germany" was a burning topic. But the actual nondescript parlia- ment at Westminster was quite incapable of inter- fering with the Foreign Office. It had neither the '' 60 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS time, the capacity, nor the disposition to deal with foreign affairs. When the war came it was newspaper pressure that forced it to shove the war through by sacrificing its sluggish thoughtless routine to the supreme need for winning. Its front bench delegates to the Peace Conference have been thus roused to an alarmed consciousness of world politics; but no pressure of blood and iron can enable men to improvise world policy, which is a matter, not of rough and ready resourcefulness and hustling energy, but of experience, training, and a certain order of mind quite different from that which finds its natural employment in domestic politics. Therefore, whatever Mr Wilson, whose mind is of this comprehensive order, may be able to do, our own parliamentarians will still be at the mercy of the old diplomatists, who are at least accustomed to "think in continents" and not in parliamentary constituencies. The remedy is to have domestic parliaments in the three nations (four, if the Welsh insist) for domestic affairs, and a federal parliament for their world politics. We should not then have ministers hastening to the Conference with a vague idea that Vladivostock is a suburb of Moscow; that Savoy overlooks the Thames Embankment; that it is unpatriotic to doubt that a Crown Prince who is at war with England varies that activity by picking pockets; and that war should be conducted in the spirit in which suburban neighbors, when they quarrel about a dead cat, throw its body back- wards and forwards over the garden wall as long as it lasts under such usage. Division of labor and FEDERAL REPUBLICANISM 61 specialization of interest according to capacity are just as necessary in representative government as in executive government, unless indeed it is assumed that the ignoramus is the only really representative man. But the result of acting on that assumption is that the representative is hopelessly at the mercy of the official in all matters which lie outside the commonest experience. Foreign policy is clearly such a matter; and unless the lives of millions of men are again to be staked without their knowledge and consent by practically irresponsible diplo- matists, we must have one set of representatives to deal with the Aldgate Pump and another to deal with the Danube. Our present parliament palpitates between the Aldgate Pump and Ireland, and is composed mostly of men who, though able to tackle problems of local and national government with at least some possibility of eventually learning that business, not only know rather less about foreign affairs and history than about quaternions, but are congenitally disqualified from ever seeing human concerns on the Mercator projection as well as on the information of a village policeman as to the whereabouts of the railway station. Give England Home Rule by providing these gentlemen with an English parliament for English affairs, at the same time providing similar appropriate spheres for conspicuous municipal ability in Scotland and Ireland, and a central federal parliament will emerge as the organ of high politics, and take over the European command from the Foreign Office and the War Office. Indeed without such an organ, and the parliamentary responsibility it 62 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS would establish, we shall be forced to send irresponsible diplomatists to the League of Nations, and thereby weaken the democratic character and authority of that body by making it possible for the federated republics to complain that the British delegates are autocrats in disguise. It is therefore even luckier for England than for Ireland that Mr Wilson must be, for the purpose of the Peace Conference, a republican federalist as against the reactionists to monarchy and centraliza- tion. If he could secure federal government for Germany, Austria, Russia, Slavia, and the British Islands, it would be established as the rule for Europe instead of, as it was before the war, the exception; and the United States would imme- diately succeed to the political seniority of the world. The American President would be the doyen among the heads of States, the Charlemagne, the Holy Roman Emperor, the Apostolic Majesty, in place of the Hapsburgs abolished. Let no one think that this change has no value. It seems only yesterday that the late Lord Salisbury, who gave Heligoland to the Kaiser, refused to send a British official representative to a Paris Exhibition on the ground that a respectable kingdom could have no avoidable relations with that transitory eruption of riff-raff called a republic. Even so sound and recent a republican as Mark Twain thought that the United States ambassadors in Europe would look better in court liveries. To-day a United States President has had his health proposed in Buckingham Palace by the King of England as between king and archking. FEDERAL REPUBLICANISM 63 A century ago Wellington stood where Mr Wilson now stands, with courtiers and diplomatists twitter- ing nervously about him, the great man of a great hour. But Wellington, Irish to the backbone, stood for the old order, despising the kings, but hating the mobs. He won Waterloo, but could not make English Byron feel otherwise than "damned sorry." Mr Wilson, even more conspicuously the great man of a greater hour, and so far quite equal to the occasion, is Grand Master at the completion of that edifice of federal republicanism of which his countrymen laid the first stone in 1776. CHAPTER V THE LEAGUE OF NATIONS : ROMANCE AND REALITY ANYONE who has fully grasped the situation of the European Powers, and mastered the history of the war, a liberty which none of the belligerents could permit even to themselves in private before the armistice, but which is now not only open to us all, but highly desirable, will be staggered by a second reading of Mr Wilson's speech of the 8th January 1918 (the fourteen points) and his elucidation of it on the 27th September. When these speeches were delivered, they passed for an arraignment of the Central Empires, and a demand upon them for securities for their good behavior. To-day they have scarcely any meaning except as against Mr Wilson's own allies. One can almost hear Mr Balfour, Lord Grey, and Lord Robert Cecil, M. Pichon, M. Poincaré, and Baron Sonnino, saying "I trust you don't mean us," and Mr Wilson replying, with his jaw set in the halo of his famous smile, "You are too modest, gentlemen. I do mean you, and, the Central Empires being now disposed of, nobody else." It may prove that at this point the fat is in the fire. That French diplomatists and English country THE LEAGUE OF NATIONS 65 gentlemen of £30,000 a year are to allow themselves to be schoolmastered by an American professor is a phenomenon which to them will appear nothing short of apocalyptic; and some of them have given anguished expression to this feeling in private. But the President's extraordinary personal success in London has put an end to such snobbish recalcitrance in England. To-day the part of Charlemagne is to him who can play it: the tiara to him who can pontificate. After the banquet at Buckingham Palace and the reception at the Guildhall, no doubt remained as to who was king, by divine right of character and personality, in western Europe. But even whilst Mr Wilson was speaking at the Guildhall, the votes cast at the General Election a fortnight before were being counted; and next day the count revealed an overwhelming majority in Parliament for the party against which Mr Wilson will have to fight tooth and nail in the Peace Conference if he is to carry his fourteen points. "I find in my welcome," said the President at the Guildhall, "the thought that they [the Allied nations] have fought to do away with the old order and establish a new one, and that the key of the old order was that unstable thing which we used to call the balance of power, a thing which was determined by the sword which was thrown in on the one side or the other, a balance which was maintained by jealous watchful- ness and an antagonism of interests which, though it was generally latent, was always deepseated." Unfortunately, the old order was just then receiving a five years lease of parliamentary supremacy from F 66 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS that proportion (about half) of the registered electors of the United Kingdom which took the trouble to vote. As far as it can be said to have voted for anything definite, it voted for hanging the Kaiser; and the degree of its political sagacity may be inferred from the fact that in order to secure that satisfaction it put into power the party which will certainly do its best to restore monarchy in Germany, and which is in sympathy with Mr Wilson's opponents in the United States to such an extent that the first practical instalment of the League of Nations threatens to be a combination of the British Government and the American Opposition against the American Government and the British Opposi- tion. All of which confirms the view that Mr Wilson will not be helped by party politics. He must make his way as the Man of Destiny, depending for his support on the hopes and fears of man- kind, and on the urge of evolution which inspires them, waving the mere votes aside as an old hand who knows what votes are worth. 66 The crux of the fourteen points is the League of Nations; and what we have to consider now is what this League must come to in practice. At the Guildhall Mr Wilson described it as not one group of nations set against another, but a single, over- whelming, powerful group of nations which shall be the trustee of the peace of the world." At which there was immense cheering. It will be observed that in this definition the group is only a group. "The parliament of man, the federation of the world" is still out of the THE LEAGUE OF NATIONS 67 question; and Anacharsis Klootz, Orator of the Human Race, is still a fool and a farceur. This is quite as it must be. For I am sorry to say that Anacharsis Klootz, being guillotined, yet speaketh, and is indeed all over the place, especially in the United States, which issues from the press, every week or so, the latest crankbuilt scheme for assembling all the nations of the earth, black and white, brown and yellow, pagan and Christian, savage and civilized, as big as the United States. or as little as the Republic of San Salvador, not to mention Monaco or Andorra, at The Hague, to fall on one another's necks and do something which is vaguely described as arbitrating, with a view to the immediate establishment of the millennium. Now if this sort of folly were confined to the American crank, it would not matter. I know the American crank well: he never stops writing to me under the impression that I am the world's Supercrank. But the British official League of Nations diplomatist is Lord Robert Cecil; and he has solemnly declared that unless all the nations of the earth are included, there can be no League of Nations. Whereas the obvious truth is that the practicability and success of the League of Nations depend on limitation to a carefully selected group of politically and psychologically homogeneous constituents. As I write these lines the report comes that M. Leon Bourgeois is vehemently of this opinion from the French point of view. autocracy is eligible for such a combination, because autocrats die, go mad, take to drink, can be bribed, and cannot possibly govern their No F 2 68 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS countries except by delegating their power to hundreds of petty autocrats, in no real organic relation to one another, and all subject to the vicissitudes that threaten the chief autocrat. When an American President, who theoretically has no power to pledge his jealously democratic country at all, gives an undertaking that the United States will observe such and such covenants for the next twenty years, no one hesitates to stake all his capital on the certainty that the undertaking will be carried out. When some oriental Tsar, who has absolute power to pledge his country, gives a similar undertaking, it is not valid for five months or five minutes; consequently no one in his senses will stake ten pounds on its being carried out. Now the solidity of the League of Nations depends on the constituent nations being in a position to give pledges that command practi- cally absolute confidence: in technical terms, having a responsible Government. An autocracy cannot deliver the goods; and that settles the question of its eligibility for a League of Nations, and settles it emphatically in the negative. Even an alliance, as the breakdown of the Russian alliance has just proved, is not safe with an autocracy. But there must be much more than mere pledges between the constituents of the League of Nations. They must form a supernational legislature, and set up a supernational tribunal, exactly as the United States had to set up a superstate legislature and a superstate tribunal. To put it in more intimate terms, they must have, for affairs wider THE LEAGUE OF NATIONS 69 than their national affairs, a common legislature and a common tribunal. Now people cannot have a common legislature and a common court of justice unless they have common ideas of right and wrong, law and justice. They must have a common language, however its dialects may vary from English to French, and from German to Swedish. They may have half a dozen different words for justice, or for wife, or for God, or for honor, or for humanity; but unless the different words mean pretty nearly the same thing, no common legislature or tribunal is possible. Attempts at common action between people who believe in fifty gods and make human sacrifices to them and people who believe in one god or in no god will not work. People to whom women are mere breeding cattle to be bought by the dozen if a man can afford so many will not get on with people to whom women are wives and mothers in the western sense. Nations on whose territory it is an offence punish- able by torture and death for a laborer to criticize the Government can have nothing in common politically with nations in which every man has a vote, and may vituperate his rulers with tongue and pen to his heart's content. Nations which cannot intermarry without a strong sense of miscegenation will hardly arrive at laws or verdicts by the same process of reasoning. The difficulty, then, in forming a League of Nations is not to get every nation into it, but to keep the incompatible nations out of it. Twelve years ago the most zealous claimant for admission to a League of Nations would have been the Tsar 70 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS of Russia, whose example would immediately have been followed by the Empress of China and possibly the Lama of Thibet. Their admission would have produced either complete paralysis of the League or else such a reduction to absurdity as occurred in the southern States of America after the civil war, when the American crank was allowed to force heterogeneous white and black legislation and justice on the emancipated slave States. The moment it is recognized that the League must be founded on a basis of common ideas, common institutions, common level of civilization, and, generally and roughly, a common philosophy of life, it becomes apparent, first, that the materials for a League of which the British Empire and the United States are to be constituents are to be found between the Carpathians and the Rocky Mountains, and not further afield. Its constituents must be either republics or constitutional monar- chies in which the monarch has much less personal power than an American President would have if he were elected for life. It must have a well developed Labor movement, Socialist move- ment, and Science movement. And it would have to be prepared for the formation of other Leagues of Nations in the yellow world, the Indian world, perhaps in the Slav world and the Spanish- Indian world. Human political society is in solution; and it will not crystallize into one solid lump for a long time yet. The possibility of putting an end to war lies not in waiting for the one solid lump, but in the first League being so formidable, and, let us hope, so well intentioned, THE LEAGUE OF NATIONS 71 that no foreign leagues would dare attempt such a monstrous and perilous enterprise as a war on it would be. With the ground of speculation thus cleared, we can see quite plainly where we must begin. Without a League between the United States, Great Britain, France, and Germany there can be no peace in the world, and consequently no League of Nations in the sense now contemplated. Anything short of this would be simply the present offensive and defensive alliance made permanent. By the acceptance of the fourteen points, and the ac- ceptance of an armistice (virtually a surrender) on their basis, these four countries have consented to the League in principle. And it is clear that when the League is once formed and believed to be genuine, Belgium, Holland, Denmark, Norway and Sweden will join it automatically. Whether Italy, Spain, and Greece would commit themselves. at once, or consider the possibility of a separate League with South America, need not be too curiously considered; for they would certainly not hold aloof with any purpose of reviving the wars of religion against the new crystallization of the Protestant North. They would be friendly. Frankly, on the score of an undeniable hetero- geneity of temperament, the combination might be more workable without them. The northern combination would be strong enough to begin with; and enough is enough. The danger of biting off more than we can chew is very obvious: superfluous strength would be dearly purchased at the cost of a great increase of friction. 72 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS We now see that the difference between Mr Wilson and M. Clemenceau, declared in the three days debate in the French Chamber which began on the 27th December, is not so irreconcilable as it seems. Mr Wilson said "If the future had nothing for us but a new attempt to keep the world at the right poise by a balance of power, the United States would take no interest, because she will join no combination of power which is not a combination of all of us." M. Clemenceau said "There is an old system, the balance of power, to which I remain faithful. This system seems to be now condemned; but if such a balance of power had preceded the war, and if Britain, America, France, and Italy had agreed to say that whoever attacked one of them would be attacking the whole world, this atrocious war would not have taken place. This system of alliance shall be my guiding thought at the Con- ference. I shall make all possible sacrifices to this end." Now as between the alliance thus desiderated by M. Clemenceau and a Klootzian League of the Human Race there is, fortunately, a hopeless incompatibility. But between it and the practical form which a League of Nations must take there is no incompatibility, because the League will be an alliance to maintain the balance of power in favor of peace as against war, and of democracy as against autocracy and oligarchy. I may add that the alliance under the old system proved unstable, and failed to prevent the war. M. Clemenceau said truly that " If Britain, America, France and Italy had agreed to say that whoever attacked one of them would be attacking the whole THE LEAGUE OF NATIONS 73 world, this atrocious war would not have taken place." But this was just what not one of them could be persuaded to do at any price. I have already described how I urged that such a declara- tion should be made by Britain eighteen months before the war, and how, even eighteen hours before the war, with the powder actually catching fire, Lord Grey still could not be persuaded to declare that Britain would fight, even to maintain Belgian neutrality. M. Clemenceau cannot forget the memorable explosion of relief in the French Chamber when, after waiting until it was too late to prevent the war and baulk the British lion, Lord Grey at last sprang his ambush. Russia, treacher- ously governed, collapsed in ruins after precipi- tating the war by her mobilization. Italy prudently waited until her price went up to fighting point. America did not move until Northern France and Belgium were blasted tracts of ruin. This sort of alliance can hardly be what M. Clemenceau means when he says "There is an old system to which I remain faithful." He might as well say that he remains faithful to the ruins of Rheims and to what has been called (in France) the condem- nation of a million Frenchmen to die that England may live. We therefore need consider no further what the League of Nations will be. It cannot possibly be more than a League of Nations with common ends and common interests. What does remain to be considered is how far they will be able to agree to surrender their sovereign rights to their common organization. CHAPTER VI GERMANY AND THE LEAGUE OF NATIONS. CLEMEN- CEAU'S OBJECTION. THE DEMAND FOR SECURITY. DISARMAMENT. NEUTRALITY. RECAPITULATION. I NEED not dwell on the question whether Germany shall be admitted into the League of Nations. If she be not, there will be no League, only an alliance against her in which France and Italy will be able to use England and America to annex German and Austrian territory. This is already so obvious that the Jingos of London and Washington, implacably anti-German as they imagine themselves to be, will be the first to discover that without Germany they will be at a heavy disadvantage in a League of Nations. What is more, they are already at the same dis- advantage in the absence of a League; for the French and Italian Jingos have been acting as masters of the situation, and making no secret of their determination to annex parts of the Rhineland and the Austrian Tyrol (to say nothing of Jugo- Slavia) without regard to the irredentist movements which must follow such annexations. The British and American Jingos may have no objection to these annexations as such; but they will object 74 SECURITY 75 very strongly to being landed in supporting them whether they object or not, and receiving no quid-pro-quo for their submission to the superior self-assertiveness of the Latin diplomatists. They will call in Germany sooner or later to counter- balance the south. Thus Germany is sure of her admission. But it may be delayed, not on the ground that she is permanently ineligible, but on the ground that she has no settled government. As we have seen, even the existence of a settled government would not make her eligible if that government were a restored Hohenzollernist divine right monarchy, or an irresponsible Vigilance Committee holding on by main force. But if a form of government emerges politically homogeneous with that of the League (and this is the most probable event) then there can be no question, if the League be an honest one, and very little question even if it be dominated by Jingo jealousies, that Germany must be a constituent, and, from the Anglo-American point of view, a very desirable constituent. Nevertheless the Anglo-American Jingos, and still more immediately the Anglo-American doc- trinaires, must reckon gently with the feeling in France which has already so nearly driven M. Clemenceau into a declaration of pure reaction towards the old diplomacy which, with all its draw- backs, has so signally avenged Sedan. It is easy to sit down behind the British fleet, or at the other side of the Atlantic, and ask the inhabitants of Picardy and Belgium to feel safe in a new moral world within range of Long Bertha, and within a 76 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS few minutes' flight of aeroplanes that drop earth- quake bombs on sleeping cities. Even London, who, safe as she seems comparatively, has for years past not dared to allow a clock to strike nor a light to shine from a window at night, nor heard the report of an anti-aircraft gun without a spasm of terror, knows better than that. If the old reliance on superior physical force is to be given up, the demand for security, which will be more imperative than ever, will take the form of a demand for disarmament. Now not one of the Great Powers will consent to be genuinely disarmed. M. Clemenceau has said definitely that France will not consent to the disarmament even of England: she will insist on the retention of the British Fleet. But he will find that the question is not to be disposed of so easily. The inhabitants of Picardy and Belgium, contemplating their levelled houses, gutted factories, hewn-down orchards, and crowded cemeteries, may say " A plague on your British fleet! What worse could have happened to us if there had not been a British ship on the seas? Did we not starve with the Germans? Has any town or village in Germany suffered as ours have suffered? Was it not this fleet building business that began all the trouble? Who but ourselves have had to pay for it? And now you tell us that America is going to build a rival fleet and begin the mischief all over again ! " Thus the very spectacle of devastation which urges M. Clemenceau to obduracy against Mr Wilson turns out on closer consideration to be an object lesson in the need for co-operation with him. SECURITY 77 This argument will cut no ice in England. If the British statesmen dared be candid they would say at once that no proposal for the reduction of the British fleet will be entertained for a moment, and that it will be useless to claim that Mr Wilson's fourth point: namely, "that national armaments will be reduced to the lowest point consistent with domestic safety" obliges England to reduce her fleet. Her domestic safety absolutely requires command of the seas. It is difficult to see how the United States can take exception to this attitude, since their patriots have hastened to announce that they, too, intend to build an Invincible Armada. Yet from the moment they lay down. their first keel with that end in view the main business of every Secretary of State for War in England must be to do unto that fleet as England has already done to Germany's, unless the old order on which M. Clemenceau pins his faith be superseded by a new one, as Mr Wilson demands. Let us see how far the war itself has changed the problem of the armaments. It has certainly greatly lessened the value of disarmament as a security for peace by demonstrating that a land armament, including a conscript army millions strong, can be improvised virtually in no time, and that feats of transportation of soldiers across the sea which nobody believed possible a year ago are easy. No nation can be prevented from making and secreting models of the jigs, dies, and presses on which a rapid mechanical output of weapons depends. Further, the most dreaded armament is now the aircraft 78 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS armament; and the commercial aeroplane, of which there will be hundreds of thousands, is potentially a bombing aeroplane. Psychologically, it has been shewn that a complete preparation for war in time of peace, though every belligerent accuses the enemy of it, is impossible. Everyone knows that as in the midst of life we are in death, we should always be ready to meet it, with our wills made, our consciences clear, and our moral accounts balanced. We know equally well that in the midst of peace we are at war, and should always be ready for the firing of the first shot. But in the one case as in the other, we never are. As we have seen, the British forces were the best prepared in 1914; but the prepara- tion did not go very far beyond the normal establish- ment, and was neither up to date nor adequate to the share we had to take in the land warfare. In all the belligerent countries the age limit for conscription had to be raised during the conflict; and the armies had to learn their business, the rule at first being insufficiency and inefficiency on all sides. The moral is that disarmed nations can put up quite as disastrous a fight as armed ones if they are determined to fight. If the will to fight continues, the means will always be forth- coming. And the less skilled and the less prepared the belligerents are, the more horrible will be the suffering and the carnage. On the other hand, the use of high explosives, poison gas, aircraft, and guns ranging up to seventy miles has made the possibilities of destruction and death so appalling, that the necessary precautions DISARMAMENT 79 a war. against them, even if effective, make life as in- tolerable for the civil population whom the armies formerly protected as for the soldiers themselves: indeed more so; for the soldier has nothing to do but deal and dodge death, whilst the civilians have to support the soldiers, support themselves, and take care of the children into the bargain under this terrible fire. The expense and demoralization are enormous. Formerly war was the sport of kings: an extravagance which they could afford and even profit by if successful. There were cases in which the losers themselves were the better for But now the expense is past a joke. That the national outputs of the belligerents have never been better distributed than during the war; that millions of laborers and their families have been better fed and clothed than ever in their lives before; that nevertheless colossal profits have been made by some employers, does not console the governing class for the reduction of its permanent incomes by more than one third through income tax and supertax, for a fifty per cent. reduction in the purchasing power of the two thirds that remain, and for the threat of "a levy on capital" which, though founded on the absurd delusion that the figures of the War Loans and Victory Loans and Liberty Loans are anything now but memoranda of claims for interest payable out of future produc- tion, may nevertheless have the effect of confis- cating that interest, and forcing property holders to mortgage their estates and their industrial stocks and shares to the Government for nothing, as the Government will simply write off the amount 80 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS of the mortgage against the "capital levy" which has compelled the victim to mortgage. Add nine million deaths from war pestilence, which is only faintly alleviated by calling it Spanish Influenza ; pile on the uncertainty as to whether even the victors can avert the revolutions which are now practically de rigueur in the case of defeat; and it will be seen that Bloch, the Polish banker, whom the war was at first supposed to have signally refuted, has in fact been confirmed by it in his essential thesis that modern war has passed from the stage of wholesale murder to that of State suicide. Therefore a deadlock may be averted by the fact that the nations, though afraid to disarm, are still more afraid to face the next war, for which their armaments are intended. Disarmament will not prevent war, nor, if it could, would that sort of preventive have much moral value. The peace that is produced by disablement is worth no more than that which is produced by manacles and fetters. The disarmament of nations will follow the course of the disarmament of individuals. On the wild edges of civilization men carry revolvers and cartridges. When they come to New York or Paris or London, it is not necessary to disarm them: they sell their revolvers and buy umbrellas. Neither the British Empire nor the United States nor the French Republic nor the German Federation will beat their swords into ploughshares until they feel safe without them. When they do feel safe they will lose no time, because armaments are frightfully expensive; and compulsory military DISARMAMENT 81 service is so irksome that it would be intolerable except under pressure of a mortal peril. The abolition of conscription, which would be very popular, may, if skilfully advocated, be accepted as a compromise. Every government knows now that in the event of a war it can not only introduce conscription ad hoc, but can even, as happened in England, get so many voluntary recruits as to leave it an unsettled question whether conscription is ever really necessary. Now Mr Wilson can hardly ask much more on his fourth point than that conscription should be abolished? With the power of conscription up each nation's sleeve; with a professional army on hand sufficient for that very elastic consideration "domestic safety "; with a secret provision for the turning out of weapons in large quantities as fast as any other Power could; and with an industrial transport service in the air and on the roads capable of military service (conditions of which nothing can deprive any nation at present), a quite imposing show of disarmament may be made without any real sacrifice. In England any political reform, however revolutionary in appearance, will be accepted by the governing classes if only it can be codified in such a way as to leave things virtually where they were before. Dickens's formula "How not to do it" remains as valid as ever. But it does not always work as it is intended to work. In this particular case it is clear that the pretence of abandoning warlike intentions would very considerably weaken them. It is the tragedy of the hypocrite that he is often held to his professions G 82 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS to such an extent that he has to confess to himself ruefully on his deathbed that he might just as well have been born an honest man. Still, all this applies to land forces, and not to navies and their power of blockade. Here there will be no yielding. Mr Wilson might as well ask Britain to cut her right hand off as to forgo either her present navy or such increase of it as may be necessary to keep it ahead of any naval combina tion that could in any reasonable probability be brought against it. And Mr Daniels, Secretary to the United States navy, and as little of a fire-eater as any Quaker, has declared unequivocally, on the question being raised by the American admirals, that unless a League of of Nations in some way supersedes this British necessity, the United States must build a bigger navy than the British. This, curiously enough, is the most satisfactory position from which the League of Nations could possibly start, because it practically guarantees another war, with Britain on one side, the United States on the other, and Japan heaven knows where, unless the League of Nations super- nationalizes the two fleets and prevents them from attempting to outgrow one another. The prospect of such a competition is unbearable; for the resources of the two countries are so huge that of armaments between them beggars imagination; and the final inevitable collision would be cataclysmal. Poor Germany, with all her goods in the shop window, working hard and long for scanty pay, could afford no preparation for the last war comparable for a a race DISARMAMENT 83 moment to a British-American preparation for the next one. What is more, the Americans and English, being relatives, have a power of hating one another that no strangers could attain. Throughout the whole nineteenth century there was no bad blood between the Germans and the English: they were allies and friends. During the same period there was continual bad blood between the Americans and the English: the closely related blood feud between England and Ireland was hardly less cordial; and the recent celebration of a century of brotherly peace and Hands Across the Atlantic was, even for a political farce, an exceptionally impudent one. The first battleship Mr Daniels builds in the absence of a League of Nations will begin an anti-American movement in England compared to which the anti- German one will seem a lovers' quarrel. This abominable vision makes some arrange- ment imperative, League or no League. The two Powers must agree as to the weights of their respective naval armaments, solemnly forswearing all rivalry, and entering into such engagements as must put them unequivocally in the wrong morally if they blockade Europe without the sanction of the League, or if they attack one another. Less than this can hardly be tolerated in the face of recent experience; and more cannot be enforced; for if England and America agreed to throw over the League at any time, there would be an end to it. Nothing but conscience and common sense can keep it together in any case: no material guarantees could avail against a deliberate resolution of its G 2 84 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS more powerful constituents to revert to the present evil anarchy. We must make up our minds to this from the beginning. It is true that the League must have a police force at its disposal; but just as no State has or can have a domestic police force strong enough to restrain the whole mass of the people from doing anything they are determined to do, so no League of Nations can have a police force capable of preventing its constituents from relapsing into the barbarism of war if they are bent on it. Something can be done in restraint of accumulation of huge stocks of high explosives, shells, and artillery, by a League which will at least have the right to call attention and demand explanations. The fitting of commercial submarine craft with torpedo tubes can be made an offence against supernational law; and if the League of Nations insists on responsibility of the Press in foreign affairs (and to interfere with fleets and armies and leave newspapers alone would be to strain at the gnat and swallow the camel), it must acquire rights of action, if not against the advocacy of war in the abstract by Darwin, Ruskin, Tennyson, and their German disciples, at least against Press campaigns and Bernhardian treatises hounding on any nation to a specific act of war. These steps will be difficult at first. But later on, when the wide- spread feeling that war is a crime against humanity finds at last an organized executive power behind it, it will become much easier to deal with war agitations as incitements to crime. I purposely omit such widely advocated and little thought-out "sanctions" as the outlawry NEUTRALITY 85 and economic boycott of a recalcitrant nation. They are double edged weapons, or rather spears pointed at both ends. We do not outlaw the individual offender: we either leave him to his conscience or call a policeman. We cannot outlaw him without outlawing ourselves at the same time in respect of him. And we cannot refuse a customer without losing his custom. This holds good between nations also. The only effective sanctions are force and conscience. There is one expedient, dear to the old diploma- tists, which must be discarded by the League of Nations, and that is the figment of neutrality. Calling a country neutral is in effect pretending that for certain purposes it does not exist. The pretence does not alter the fact that it does exist. Before the war Belgium and Greece were diplomatically assumed to have no existence in relation to the war. They were called neutral: that is, neither one thing nor the other, giving no reaction either to the British litmus or the German turmeric. But the Germans found out at once in practice what they had known all along in theory, that their only chance of winning the war was to get to Paris with the utmost speed; and the shortest way was through Belgium, which was therefore by no means neutral, but either a bridge to victory or a very solid obstacle to it. They at once demanded a passage through Belgium, offering to pay their way and do no damage. The refusal of this offer became an act of war by Belgium on behalf of the Allies. But its acceptance would have been equally an act of war on behalf of Germany against the 86 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS Allies. In such a situation the figment of neutrality collapsed at once. The dilemma was so obvious that it had been foreseen and provided for, Belgium having, as we have seen, had already to arrange that in such an event she was to resist any attempt on the part of the German army to pass through her territory. The arrangement was not discovered and revealed until the Germans took Brussels; and in the meantime there was a reckless exploita- tion of virtuous indignation among the Allies over the violation of neutrality and the tearing up of the treaty of 1839 which guaranteed it, and which the Imperial Chancellor, like Gladstone forty years before, estimated accurately as a scrap of paper. Yet he was himself the dupe of the figment to such an extent that he very rashly admitted moral delinquency instead of thinking out his case. Neutrality had not been " violated": that which does not exist cannot be violated. A figment had been reduced to absurdity: that was all. I made such attempts as an unofficial individual writer could to warn the country not to be righteous overmuch, as it was extremely unlikely that we should get through the war without having to violate neutrality ourselves. But in England nothing can resist the national love of lecturing other people on their moral behavior. The flimsiest case for moral superiority is preferred to the strongest case in which "honors are easy." We revelled and "wallowed in our superiority to the tearers up of scraps of paper (our own waste-paper basket being none the less full) and to the violators NEUTRALITY 87 of the sacred covenant of neutrality. We then discovered that it was necessary for the success of our Eastern strategy to seize certain Greek islands, and to send troops into Greek territory. Also (and this raises a point of the first importance for the League of Nations) we found that our production of steel depended on a certain natural product for which we had hitherto depended on Germany, and must now procure from Eubea. In dealing with this situation we shewed none of Bethmann Hollweg's squeamishness. We seized the islands, including Eubea, straight away, and then sounded the King of Greece as to whether he would not like to regularize the proceeding by coming into the war on the side of the Allies. His reply, made to an American interviewer, was that he declined to take the side of a Power which always sent 35,000 men on expeditions for which at least 200,000 were needed. This pleasantry cost him his throne. We republished the interview with the pleasantry left out; hoofed King Con- stantine out of his country; set up his son in his place; and proceeded to make ourselves thoroughly at home in Hellas. The Greeks, with the object lesson of Belgium before their eyes, knew better than to do more than protest on paper. The Germans had established a reign of terror for all resisters of invasion; and there were no great Powers behind Greece as there had been behind Belgium to compel her to resist. TIM These high-handed proceedings were quite in- evitable. Moral recriminations about it are empty and idle, Greece might just as well have 88 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS made war on us as refused us what we took: she had no more power to be neutral in any real sense than she had to melt into thin air and let the Mediterranean up to the Bulgarian frontier. But our action knocked the bottom out of all Mr Pecksniff's nonsense about scraps of paper and the sacredness of neutrality. And they force us now to drop these figments and to face the real question of the conflict between the rights of nations and the rights of humanity at large. What rights of way are the nations to have over one another's territory? If one nation may force another to share its supply of magnesite, may it not in turn be forced to share its own supply of coal ? Here we begin to see that the League of Nations is being forced on us not only by our fear of another Armageddon, but by the march of civilization, which has bestridden frontiers and made " sovereign rights" as obsolete as autocracy or the Roman father. Just as it is idle for England or Germany to try to stop one another's army by a notice board inscribed "Trespassers will be prosecuted: this land is strictly preserved," so it is equally silly to try to stop pacific penetration by the same means. A whole new range of questions must be faced and answered. Has England a right to refuse to allow a German to land in England, or Germany a right to refuse to let an Englishman cross the German frontier? May a handful of people inhabiting a corner of the huge Australian continent refuse to let a yellow man set foot on it, however overcrowded his own country may be? Has a Chinaman any rights in California or an East Indian NEUTRALITY 89 in Cape Colony? If individuals have such rights, have nations and armies got them? Fancy such problems being solved by people who are still in the act of crying "Here's a stranger: heave half a brick at him "! These questions may not be finally settled, nor even asked, in Paris; but unless the members of the Conference are keenly aware that they are coming up for settlement, and coming up quickly, their provisions for the future will have very little value. The immediately important point is that any attempt to fall back on the old expedient of setting up buffer States between the great Powers and declaring them to be neutral must be put out of countenance by the mere irony of the facts of the war. If the discussion threatens to degenerate at any moment into recriminations about violated neutrality, the Conference will be promptly re- minded that the Allies were as powerless to respect that figment as Germany was. And when small nations (Ireland, for example) demand such inde- pendence as Belgium or Greece enjoyed before the war, had they not better be asked bluntly how much that independence proved worth when war broke out between their gigantic neighbors, and whether their chance of liberty does not lie rather in interdependence than in a spurious independence? In short, there will be a great breakdown of national cant at the Conference, because the Conference is international, and national cant has no currency beyond the frontier. Further than this I cannot carry the subject. The story of the Conference from day to day must 90 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS be taken up by the journalists who will write within a few hours of the event. I can only give a statement of certain conditions, some of them obvious enough, but all of them involving con- siderations not at all obvious, which, being none the less real, will either govern the Conference's decisions, or, if ignored or defied, reduce them later on to absurdity. In doing this I have done my best to avoid conciseness, because, as people seldom digest pemmican successfully, conciseness in complicated matters is generally the reduction of a compound truth to a simple falsehood. Early in the war the German Government, wishing to stir up a rebellion against the French in Morocco and Algeria, circulated a document written in very choice Arabic to the effect that I am a great prophet, and that I once told an American senator that the violation of Belgian neutrality was an incident of the war and not the cause of it. I am quite unable to follow that operation of the German mind which led to the conclusion that any Moorish sheikh could be induced to rush to arms because some dog of an unbeliever had made a statement that was neither interesting nor even intelligible in Morocco to some other dog of an un- believer; but the Germans formed that conclusion and spent money on it. Thereupon a distinguished literary colleague of mine, E. A. W. Mason, who had plunged into active service in the war, and was busy circumventing the Germans round the Mediter- ranean and thereabouts, came to me and asked me for "a concise and straightforward denial " of the implication that the great Rabbi Shaw was a RECAPITULATION 91 pro-German. Having been among the Moors and spoken to Sheikhs and Marabouts myself, I had no difficulty in convincing Mason that conciseness is not a virtue in Barbary. Also, I am not the man to lose an opportunity of preaching at the utmost admissible length when I find myself installed as a great prophet. Mason and I were not men of letters for nothing. We combined the style of our Bible with that of Burton's Arabian Nights in a prophetic message which will, I hope, find a perma- nent place in Arab literature as an additional surah of the Koran. It was duly translated and circulated; and the Moors lay low and did nothing. It had every quality except that of conciseness. But if it is a mistake to be concise in opening a case, it is just as well to add a concise summing- up; so as to provide a convenient conspectus of the conclusions arrived at. Accordingly I re- capitulate as follows. 1. As far as the planning of the war and the preparations for it are concerned the parties enter the Peace Conference on equal terms morally. All of them obeyed, more or less intelligently, the instinct of self-preservation, and were under the necessity of securing it by military force because there was no supernational law in existence to take its place. 2. The war was decided by the naval blockade, which proved that the British Empire has militant powers of starvation and ruin at present possessed by no other State. 3. Though France, through M. Clemenceau, has 92 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS expressed confidence in this state of things, the United States, through their admirals and Mr Daniels, have declared unequivocally that unless the situation be changed by the establishment of a League of Nations, the United States must build a fleet capable of coping with any existing naval armament. 4. As a similar resolution on the part of the German Empire was the first step towards the present war, this declaration may be taken as the first step towards the next war unless and until the League of Nations becomes an established fact. a 5. The League of Nations must begin as combination of States with settled responsible governments of the modern democratic type, and will differ from an alliance by having a joint legislature and tribunal for enacting and adminis- tering a body of international and supernational law. The present alliance presents so obvious a nucleus for such a League, that it must at once anticipate its attitude and accept most of its moral responsibilities. 6. As republican federations of the North American type will be eligible as constituents of the League of Nations without question, whereas monarchies will have to satisfy the League that their governments are really responsible, the League, without directly imposing any form of government, or denying to any nation its right of self-determination, must, by the mere fact of its existence and the conditions of admission to it, act as a high premium on federal republicanism RECAPITULATION 93 and responsible government, and as a veto on autocracy. 7. Germany cannot be admitted to the League until she has a settled government of the type desiderated; but the League cannot seriously ensure peace in Europe until Germany is admitted. 8. Pending the admission of Germany to the League, the Alliance will be dominated by the initiative of France and Italy; and as this situa- tion will lead to a rapprochement between the English-speaking allies and Germany, it is important that the campaign of hatred against Germany, which has now served its turn, should be dis- continued in England and America. 9. Disarmament (including nominal abolition of conscription) is possible as regards land forces, but delusive. Naval and aerial armaments must be balanced and morally controlled by the League of Nations. The production of high explosives and artillery on a threatening scale, and the equip- ment of submarine vessels with torpedo tubes, should be made an offence against supernational law; but the League cannot make war physically impossible and should not try to. 10. There is not, and there never can be, any such thing as neutrality in war or in peace. Belgium passive may affect the result more than Brazil active. The extent to which any nation can be permitted to limit the general human right of way or to monopolize any natural product is one of the most difficult and pressing subjects for the supernational legislation which the League of Nations will have to set up. 94 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS 11. The influence of party politics and Balance of Power diplomacy on the Peace Conference may produce a reactionary combination of the present European war Governments with the American Republican Opposition against the American Demo- cratic Government and the European Opposi- tions; and as, in view of the electoral weakness of the latter, Mr Wilson, as a Great Man standing for a Great Idea, must depend on sheer intellectual and moral superiority without regard to election figures, it is important that America should wake up to this situation, and not leave her President in the position of a prophet with less honor in his own country than in Europe, on which he has made a tremendous impression. CHAPTER VII GOOD MANNERS IN WAR AND PEACE We are so unaccustomed to be at war with our more civilized neighbors that most of us have no idea of how we should behave ourselves under such circumstances. Not only our simple citizens, but our editors and statesmen, and even in a few instances our very soldiers, have been guilty of the most shocking solecisms. Instead of putting on our full dress clothes and standing on our very best behavior, we have been recklessly abusive and injurious. We have frantically denied every state- ment made by the enemy without stopping to consider whether it was true, and have thereby not only missed the advantage of many valuable admissions in our own favor, but put ourselves gratuitously in the wrong. We have passion- ately accepted and affirmed and reaffirmed as authentic news stories which on the face of them could not possibly have been true. Our suppressions, being sane and premeditated, have been worse than our raging affirmations. In short, we have behaved as naïvely as the children of a certain little country town in my neighbor- 95 96 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS hood, who assembled at the railway station when the announcement was made that some prisoners of war were to be imported for work on the farms. When they were asked what they had come for, they replied "To spit at the Germans." And those who told them that this was naughty, and sent them home, were immediately accused by several quite fully grown persons of being " pro- Germans." For indeed the worst of it was that we did all these things, not merely to the few unfortunate Germans who were within our reach, but to those of our own people who behaved punctiliously according to the creed of Christian chivalry, or even with common decency. It seems hardly credible now that the Headmaster of Eton was X driven scurrilously from his place for reminding us that our occupation of Gibraltar raised the same problem as the German control of the Kiel canal, or that the Archbishop of York would have been unfrocked, had such a proceeding been possible, for speaking of the Kaiser as one gentle- man speaks of another whose hospitality he has accepted in happier days. I might strengthen my demonstration by citing cases in allied or enemy countries; but it is for them to confess their own sins, not for me to confess for them. What, then, is the creed of Christian chivalry, and the code of manners founded on it? First and above all, a soldier who kills his enemy for any personal reason whatever is guilty of murder. Whether the reason be simple hatred, or a desire to strip him of a better pair of boots, CHRISTIAN CHIVALRY 97 or to remove an heir who stands between him and a property, or a rival who has supplanted him in love, no excuse can be allowed on the score that the dead man was an enemy in the military sense. A soldier slaying an enemy for a personal reason, a judge summing up against a prisoner for a per- sonal reason, a clergyman refusing the sacrament to a parishioner for a personal reason, all incur the same condemnation. Were it not so, a soldier who had disabled his enemy or taken him prisoner would kill him. But his obligation to kill or disable him in fair fight is not more sacred than his obligation to bind up his wounds, nurse him, doctor him, feed him, lodge him and clothe him, when he is at his conqueror's mercy. That is the difference, and the whole difference, between the civilized soldier and the North American Indian brave, or any lawless brigand or pirate. The moral law in the matter is the same as the physical law: the civilian's obligation the same as the warrior's. War is a very dreadful thing at its best; but if it suspended every rule and impulse of human kindness, so that men were not only authorized but enjoined to become utter devils for the duration," both at home and in the field, human society would be incompatible with war as an institution, and Dr. Johnson's famous definition of patriotism as the last refuge of a scoundrel would become generally valid. Too many of our civilians need to have this lesson rubbed into them by our soldiers. They know that in breaches of the peace they must not kick a man when he is down, or refuse to shake hands with H 98 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS him when they have fought out a quarrel with him. But they seem to have no shame in kicking a German when he is down, or declaring that they will never shake hands with a German as long as they live. Now a good deal of this is due to a quite amiable failure to realize what war means. In the news- papers the civilian reads an endless and glorious list of heroic exploits by plucky, good-natured, indomitably cheerful British soldiers, whose worst weaknesses are a little comic coarseness of language and a tendency to go on the spree occasionally and sing parodies of popular hymns. And side by side with these lists are others of mean, filthy, cruel, cowardly outrages by men of several different enemy nationalities generalized as Huns. It does not occur to some of us that the German papers must have presented the same contrast between the British Hun and the German hero. Both are as false to the facts as the elaborate deception by which Sir Douglas Haig persuaded the German commanders that he was planning an attack many miles distant from the spot in which his final blow was actually delivered. His business of deceiving the enemy was a trifle compared to the business of deceiving our own simpleton-civilians, who know nothing of war and less of Christian chivalry. Even soldiers have to be deceived, because they are not all heroes. The percentage who win (or deserve) Victoria Crosses is balanced at the other end by a percentage who have to be restrained from surrendering too easily by per- suading them that the enemy inflicts un- CHRISTIAN CHIVALRY 99 bearable tortures and privations on prisoners of war. But if these deceptions are necessary as ruses de guerre there is no sort of sense in keeping them up when the war is over. Sir Douglas Haig is not now ostentatiously equipping a yacht for a polar expedition to persuade the Germans that he will not be available for the defence of Amiens next summer. No British infantryman, however "fed up" with fighting, is now under the smallest temp- tation to surrender in order to escape from shell barrages. All the deceptions are now doing un- mitigated mischief, making unreason and bad blood where reason and good nature are the most urgent needs of the situation in Europe. Everyone who is not a born fool must realize soon what all the clever people realized long ago, that the moral cleaning-up after the war is far more important than the material restorations. The towns that have been knocked down mostly needed it very badly, and will be replaced, let us hope, by better planned, healthier, happier habitations. We shall be able to build cathedrals quite as handsome as the best medieval ones, stained glass and all, as soon as we really like them and want them. But the poisoning of the human soul by hatred, the darkening of the human mind by lies, and the hardening of the human heart by slaughter and destruction and starvation, are evils that spread and fester long after the guns have stopped. Yet the importance that war gives to fools who are negligible in peace makes them loth to let the war cease if they can possibly carry it on H 2 100 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS by mere rancor after the soldiers have come home. To appease such rancor, I offer the following figures. First, as to the satisfaction we have already had of our desire to be revenged on the Germans for what they have done to us. Without counting the war carnage, which has been frightful, we have by our blockade caused 763,000 persons to die in Ger- many of "malnutrition," a polite name for starva- tion. By 1917 we had increased the civilian mortality by 32 per cent. above the figure for 1913. Next year we got that appalling figure up to 37 per cent. This does not include influenza cases. More than 50,000 children under fifteen died in 1917, and 15,000 girls and women under thirty. These are only the deaths: the condition of the survivors may be imagined. And this is still going on more or less, and will go on until the blockade is raised. Does any Englishman want any more revenge ? Can Mr Havelock Wilson find even a five-times- torpedoed sailor, or his widow, whose resentment will not melt into pity and horror at so dreadful a holocaust? How infinitesimally little and mean do our petty persecutions by internment and ex- patriation seem beside this awful blow which we have struck at the life of the very heart of our Europe, the common mother of the slayers and the slain! The submarine campaign was a desperate attempt to return the blow. It failed; but what right have we, whose blow got home, to give ourselves moral airs and demand the further punishment of the losers in this hideous starvation match? Even we, the winners, are already heavily CHRISTIAN CHIVALRY 101 وو punished for what we have done, not only by our own losses but by the German losses as well; for every German we have killed, and every German child we have lamed for life by rickets, is a loss to us just as certainly as every Allied soldier or civilian the Germans have killed is a loss to Germany. "There is no wealth but life said Ruskin truly; and we shall all, Germans and Allies alike, be on short commons for years to come, be- cause we have killed and disabled so much of the life of the world. This is why Germany nursed back to health so many Allied soldiers whom they had broken with their shells, and why we did the same with so many German soldiers. This is why, at Ruhleben, the Germans gave the English prisoners with scrupulous honesty the parcels of food we sent out to them, though they were so hungry themselves that the prisoners at last became masters of the camp because they had a store of fats to give away. The poor little cramped minds that cannot understand this would have robbed the prisoners and left the fallen soldiers to perish on the field, or slaughtered them out of hand. I have also a few figures for the consideration of those who have had dust thrown in their eyes until they see red by the atrocity-mongering which was not a very clean trade even in war time, and is now mere villainous mischief-making. Of course there have been atrocities. It is physically im- possible that half or quarter of the crimes that must have been perpetrated by the bad characters engaged in this war should have been recorded. Accept all the newspaper stories as true, even those 102 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS which bear their falsehood on the face of them: multiply them by ten; and they will still fall short of the estimate of military crime which any statistician can give with absolute certainty without consulting a provo-marshal or reading a single sensational column about German Brutalities. Before the war one in every fifty of our population was charged every year with a non-indictable offence. One in every eight hundred was charged with an indictable offence. One in three thousand and seventy-seven was tried for a crime. The first two figures represent a good deal of violent disorder, including the knocking about of women in a highly unchivalrous manner. The last includes acts of cruelty so horrible that they are too sicken- ing to be reported, some of the victims being the criminal's own infant children. In the face of these figures, and of the prisons and police forces and assizes and gallows that stand before us to remind us that they correspond to facts, it is idle to hold up an ideal Englishman who is incapable of an act of brutality or cowardice side by side with an ideal German who is capable of nothing else. The plain fact is that both the Allies and the Germans must have conscribed for military service not only millions of average decent men, but thousands of infernal scoundrels. What these scoundrels did when they got such chances as war offered them cannot now be remedied, and had best be forgotten. Such memories are not useful even as an argument for abolishing war; for born villains are even more villainous in peace, when they are not under stern CHRISTIAN CHIVALRY 103 military discipline. could tell of things done by German soldiers that leave the imagination of our most inventive re- porters beggared; but does anyone suppose that the French or British or Italian military police can present their tribunals with much whiter gloves? Only the other day it was reported as an ordinary item of news that the police force of the American army in France had to be reorganized because the French complained that in the department of the Seine alone thirty-four murders had been com- mitted by the soldiers in addition to an unconscion- able number of quarrels pushed to bloodshed. If this is what the less self-controlled members of respectable and civilized communities do to their friends and allies, what are they likely to do to their enemies when their blood is up? We had better wipe the slate, and say no more about it: it is not wholesome reading for our children; and it will certainly not make the work of the Peace Conference any easier. The German military police No more, I hope, need be said to check the cruder rancors of war. They are to be classed with rioting and looting as simple misconduct disguised as patriotism. I will not even press the case here against that intellectual rioting and looting, largely, I am sorry to say, conducted by university pro- fessors and men of letters who ought to know better, which is so much worse, because so much more lasting in its infection, than mere physical rioting and looting. Most of its authors are by this time ashamed of it; and their friends are no more likely to hold them to account for their ravings in the 104 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS first access of war fever than for their utterances in the delirium of any other fever. It will have been noticed by my readers that in the first chapters of this book I have made out a much better case for the German war policy than any of the Germans have to my knowledge made out for themselves. In doing so I have acted only as a British military surgeon acts when he sets the broken leg of a German prisoner of war better than the German could set it for himself. The surgeon does the same for the English soldier; and I have done the same for the English case. I am of course aware that much more sentimental and popular versions of the English case are being offered in all directions; but the difficulty is that they are not true, and that if they were put forward at the Peace Conference, the enemies of England could ride off under cover of a demonstration that they are not true. A capable advocate, when he is convinced of the soundness of his own case, always takes his opponent's case at its best, even if he has to state it for him better than he can state it himself; and he will take special care when going into court to cry off all claims that cannot be sustained, so as to avoid refutations that would prejudice those that can. In our case the claim that Belgium was in any real sense neutral, or could possibly have been neutral, cannot be sustained. The claim that the attack of Germany on France was entirely wanton and unprovoked cannot be sustained. The claim that the so-called strategic Encirclement of the Central Empires by an Anglo-Franco-Russian combination is a German invention cannot be CHRISTIAN CHIVALRY 105 sustained. What is more, if they could be sus- tained, England would cut a contemptible figure as a thriftless, helpless, blind, silly gull, victorious only by undeserved and extraordinary luck, and by the help of America at the last hour. Such a figure has sufficient points in common with the British sailor-lieutenant of melodrama to be more congenial and flattering to simpletons than the truth; but if England had been governed by its simpletons the Kaiser would at this moment be installed in Buckingham Palace, and the Prussian Guards would be knocking the hats off Englishmen who did not salute as they passed. Those who cannot bear the truth, or still hanker after melo- drama, can find their fill in the papers that cater specially for them. They must not expect to find it at the Peace Conference. The Salon de l'Horloge is not exactly the Palace of Truth; but neither is it the palace of popular patriotism; for as all the dele- gations have a different patria, and every patria has moral pretensions intolerable to and incompatible with the moral pretensions of all the other patrias, patriotism has to be dropped before any discussion is possible except discussion of the sort that is most effectively conducted with chair legs and revolvers. It may now be asked whether under these cir- cumstances I am justified, face to face with so many simpletons who are incapable of real politics, in letting the cat out of the bag. Why not leave the mass of men happy in their belief that the war was a melodrama of which they were the heroes, and leave the diplomatists to do the real business between themselves quietly? 106 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS It is quite a fair question; but there are several conclusive answers to it without falling back on the excuse that I am not very largely read by simple- tons. I will give one or two of them. Even if it were of no importance that the British voter should know exactly what his Government has done (and that view is rank oligarchy), it is of enormous importance that the Germans, among whom I have many readers, should know, and know accurately, what has just happened to them, and that the rest of the world should know it too. We are the most powerful single State on earth now; but we still hold to the resolution we made when we were only a tight little (and by no means always a right little) island. We will endure oppressions and masteries from one another; but we will suffer no other State on earth to master us, or to have the means of mastering us. If any State begins to build up an armament with that in view, or even with that as a possible result, that State will have to fight us; and in such fights we have not been beaten since 1066. This success is due neither to luck nor to superhuman virtues inherent in the English people, but to the fact that as our interest in preventing a hegemony is not peculiar to us, we are always able to form an alliance against the hegemonist. And we are rich enough to see our allies through with money as well as with reinforcements. If our turn to be de- feated ever comes it will be because our Own position will threaten the world with a British hegemony, and will make it possible for America or some other Power to form and finance a com- CHRISTIAN CHIVALRY 107 bination against us as decisive as those we formed against Louis XIV, Napoleon, and the Kaiser. 66 The moral is that hegemonies are impossible, and attempts at them certain to end in armament races and finally in war. There was a time when this did not seem an objection. Even now the pro- fessional soldier, the pseudo-evolutionary biologist, and the war profiteer, quietly encouraged by those who are of Great Catherine's opinion that an in- surgent proletariat can always be diverted by giving them a little war to amuse them," have still a good word to say for war. But the rest, having had enough of it for one generation, are urging on the Peace Conference as its first and last duty the replacement of violence by law between nations. That is why all the masks must come off, all the hypocrisies be dropped, and all the hidden cards be shaken from the diplomatic sleeves and thrown face upwards on the table. When Imperial hegemony is given up as im- possible, class hegemony within the nations re- mains to be dealt with. Civil war, the war for an idea, the only really respectable sort of war, will still be a possibility; and, ideas having no respect for frontiers, such civil war must develop into a world crusade. The melodramatic pretences of the Balance of Power wars have trained men and women to think of liberty and justice as things to be secured by fighting. That is a dangerous training. Much of the reasoning that I have heard applied of late to "the Hun" might be applied rather more cogently to me as "the Capitalist." Every second street in Europe now contains men who have 108 PEACE CONFERENCE HINTS found out how easy it is to get rid of an opponent by thrusting a bayonet through him or throwing a bomb at him, and are well practised in both operations. To glorify such methods when the practitioners were in the trenches, wholly pre- occupied with the Germans, was common prudence : to do so now when they are face-to-face with the hegemonists of their own country is rash madness. We had better muzzle the trumpet and raise the hymn of peace, even though its loveliest and noblest settings, in The Messiah, in The Magic Flute, in the Ninth Symphony, in Parsifal, are all the work of those notorious Huns, Händel, Mozart, Beethoven, and Wagner. The old lion is triumphant on the crest of the mountain. But the crest of the mountain is also the brink of the abyss. THE END PRINTED IN GREAT BRITAIN BY R. CLAY AND SONS, LTD., BRUNSWICK STREET, STAMFORD STREET, S.E. I, AND BUNGAY, SUFFOLK. 1 WORKS BY BERNARD SHAW 12s. 6d. Net Dramatic Opinions and Essays. Originally con- tributed to The Saturday Review. Selected by JAMES HUNEKer, with a Preface by him. Two vols. 6s. Net CONTENTS.-Androcles and Androcles and the Lion. the Lion-Overruled-Pygmalion. Man and Superman. A Comedy and a Philosophy. CONTENTS. Epistle Dedicatory to Arthur Bingham Walkley- Man and Superman-The Revolutionist's Handbook-Maxims for Revolutionists Plays Unpleasant. CONTENTS.-Widowers' Houses- The Philanderer-Mrs. Warren's Profession. Plays Pleasant. CONTENTS. Arms and the Man- Candida-The Man of Destiny-You Never Can Tell. Three Plays for Puritans. CONTENTS.-The Devil's Disciple. Cæsar and Cleopatra-Captain Brassbound's Conversion. The Doctor's Dilemma. CONTENTS. The Doctor's Dilemma-Getting Married-The Shewing-up of Blanco Posnet. John Bull's Other Island. CONTENTS. John Bull's Other Island-How He Lied to Her Husband-Major Barbara. Misalliance, CONTENTS. Misalliance-The Dark Lady of the Sonnets-Fanny's First Play. Cashel Byron's Profession. CONTENTS. Cashel Byron's Profession, a novel with the dramatic version in the Elizabethan style, entitled The Admiral Bashville; or, Constancy Unrewarded, and a Note on Modern Prizefighting. The Irrational Knot. A novel. 3s. 6d. Net The Perfect Wagnerite. The Quintessence of Ibsenism. Press Cuttings. Paper, Is. net. How to Settle the Irish Question. Paper, 6d. net. An Unsocial Socialist. The Irrational Knot. Love Among the Artists. Cashel Byron's Profession., In CONSTABLE'S SHILLING SERIES, Paper, 18. net each. Cloth, 1s. 6d. net each. Published by CONSTABLE & CO., LTD., 10, ORANGE ST., W.C. 2 PLAYS BY BERNARD SHAW Sold separately in Paper Wrappers, 1s. 6d. net each, except those marked * which are 2s. each. Also in Cloth Binding, 2s. 6d. net (those marked are 3s. each). Fanny's First Play Widowers' Houses The Philanderer Mrs. Warren's Profession Arms and the Man Candida The Man of Destiny You Never Can Tell The Devil's Disciple Caesar and Cleopatra * Captain Brassbound's Conversion *John Bull's Other Island Major Barbara t The Admiral Bashville: and How He Lied to Her Husband *The Doctor's Dilemma *Getting Married [In One Volume The Shewing-up of Blanco Posnet *Androcles and the Lion Overruled and The Dark Lady of the Sonnets [In One Volume Pygmalion *Misalliance Published by CONSTABLE & CO., LTD., 10, ORANGE ST., W.C. 2 UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN 3 9015 02734 3667 THE UNIV HIGAN GRADUATE LID. Y APR 25 1971 DATE DUE How to Settle the Irish Question An exposition of the Federal Solution, by Bernard Shaw Paper wrapper. Price 6d. net Published by Constable & Co. Ltd. 10 Orange Street, London, W.C.2