HB
11081
THE
DECLINE IN THE BIRTH-RATE,
,AN 'ESSAY .IN STATISTICS,
COGHLAN.
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THE DECLINE IN THE BIRTH-RATE OF
NEW SOUTH WALES.
THE
DECLINE IN THE BIRTH-RATE
OF NEW SOUTH WALES
AND
OTHER PHENOMENA OF CHILD-BIRTH.
AN ESSAY IN STATISTICS
BY
COGHLAN
HONORARY FELLOW OP THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY, CORRESPONDING MEMBER OF THE
ROYAL SOCIETY OF TASMANIA.
GOYERNMENT STATISTICIAN OF NEW SOUTH WALES.
WILLIAM APPLEGATE GULLICK, GOVERNMENT PRINTER.
1903.
ARRANGEMENT OF CONTENTS.
PAGE.
INTRODUCTION ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 1
A NEW COUNTRY AND A DECLINING BIRTH-RATE ... ... 3
MARRIAGE AGE ... .. ... ... ... ... ... 5
ANTE-NUPTIAL CONCEPTION 7
ILLEGITIMACY 11
FECUNDITY 13
GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF FECUNDITY ... ... ... 16
FECUNDITY IN KELATION TO BIRTHPLACE AND RELIGIOUS BELIEF 18
BIRTH-RATE ACCORDING TO AGE OF MOTHER AND OF FATHER ... 22
FIRST BIRTHS 26
BIRTHS TO WOMEN WITH PREVIOUS ISSUE ... ... ... 29
EFFECTS OF POSTPONEMENT OF MARRIAGE ON FERTILITY ... 33
NUMBER OF CHILDREN TO MARRIAGES LASTING THROUGH THE WHOLE
PERIOD OF CHILD-BEARING ... ... ... ... 35
AVERAGE NUMBER OF CHILDREN TO ALL MARRIAGES ... .., 38
FERTILITY IN RELATION TO BIRTHPLACE AND RELIGIOUS BELIEF 40
FAMILIES OF VARIOUS SIZES ... ... ... ... ... 45
JOINT AGES OF PARENTS AS AFFECTING BIRTH-RATES—BIGENOUS
NATALITY 47
PLURAL BIRTHS 54
SEX 56
DEATHS IN CHILD-BIRTH 59
CONCLUSION... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 68
0)
ACKNOWLEDGMENT.
THE author desires to acknowledge the kind assistance
which he has received in the compilation of this little
work from Mr. J. B. TRIVETT, F.R.A.S., RS,S,,
Mr. H. A. SMITH, and Mr. A. J. DOYLE, A.I.A.
THE DECLINE IN THE BIRTH-RATE
OF NEW SOUTH WALES. •
Introduction.
THERE is hardly any branch of statistical inquiry that has been so greatly
neglected in English-speaking countries as that which treats of the phenomena
of child-bearing. Much, indeed, has been written on the subject of the
decline in the birth-rate, and many and various theories have been advanced
to account for that decline, but, so far as statistics are concerned, there has
been little systematic attempt to advance beyond commonplace comparisons
of the number of births and the population of the State or town in which the
births occur; so that the present essay, incomplete as it is, will do something
towards removing a serious defect in an interesting and important branch of
vital statistics.
The pioneer work on the subject of child-bearing is that of Dr. Matthews
Duncan, entitled "Fecundity, Fertility, and Sterility,7' published in Edin-
burgh nearly forty years ago. The book dealt with the 16,593 legitimate
births occurring in the cities of Edinburgh and Glasgow in the year 1855.
Dr. Duncan's field of observation was thus very restricted, and not a few of
his conclusions, being based on insufficient data, are faulty, but his arguments
are in the main correct, and deservedly received a large amount of attention.
The investigation, of which the results are here presented, covers a very
much wider field. The author has had access to the registrations of births,
deaths, and marriages in 2STew South Wales since the year 1856, when the
system of state registration came into operation; for his present work, how-
ever, attention is restricted, so far as births are concerned, to the period
1891 to 1900, during which decade 356,496 children were born, and in
regard to deaths, to the twenty years from 1881 to 1900, in which period
the deaths of 43,657 married women were registered.
The birth records give the ages of the parents of each child born, the period
elapsing since marriage, and their previous issue; the death records show,
amongst other things, for each married woman, the age of the deceased and
of her husband, the duration of their marriage, the number of issue both
living and dead, and the cause of death. At the census, besides the usual
particulars obtained at periodical enumerations of the people, viz., in regard
to age, birth-place, religion, occupation, conjugal condition, education, &e.,
special inquiry was made of all married persons concerning the duration of
their marriage, and the number of their children.
2
The facts obtained from these three independent sounds form the ground-
work of the information herein presented. Few assumptions of any kind
have been made, and these only of an obvious character; while the deduc-
tions have, in all cases, substantial backing in actual facts, for the most part
appearing in one part or other of this volume. Where it has been thought
necessary, the figures have been subjected to actuarial adjustment in order
to correct errors and misstatements in regard to ages; this, as all persons
dealing with vital statistics soon discover, is a precaution most necessary. tQ
take where women are the subject of discussion.
There is nothing as regards the phenomena of child-birth in which tfie
Australian states can be said to differ in any material way from other
civilised countries. The results here presented, can, therefore, be considered,
f not of universal application, as applicable to communities under conditions
ike unto those prevailing in Australia.
New Country arid a Decliijiijg Birth-rate.
AUSTRALIA, with its large and sparsely-populated territory, and with its
industries in process of rapid development, might reasonably be pictured as
an ideal land, wherein the people would prove fruitful and multiply. Such,
indeed, was the promise of the early years of settlement. Present indications,
however, give no hope of a teeming population springing from Australasian
parents, for the birth-rate in all the states has declined very greatly, especially
during the last fifteen years, and when compared with the total population,
the births in three of them are proportionately less numerous than in any
European country, France alone excepted.
The rates for the seven states in 1901 were as follows, the figures indicate
the number of children born alive per thousand of the total population :—
Western Australia 30'49 New Zealand 26'30
Tasmania 28•39 , Victoria 25•77
Queensland 28'36 I South Australia 25'09
New South Wales 27'60 i
The birth-rate of" France in recent years has averaged 22 per thousand, or
only 3'09 below the lowest Australian rate.
Ratios based on the whole population are as a rale unsatisfactory. More
trustworthy results are obtained by comparing the number of women of
child-bearing age and the total births in wedlock. Taking the married
women under the age of 45 years, it is found that at the present time (1901),
the births in New South Wales do not average more than 235 per thousand,
while ^ recently as 1886 their number was 339, so that there has been a
decline in fifteen years of very nearly one-third. This important develop-
ment is likely to be attended with very serious results, both social and
economic, some of which are already beginning to show themselves.
The Census of 1901 disclosed the fact that in New South Wales the
children under 5 years of age were less in number than at the previous
Census, and in some of the other states the children, both under 5 and under
ten years, were also less numerous. Taking Australia and New Zealand
together, the fall in the birth-rate is such that there are annually fewer births
by nearly 20,000 than would have occurred if the rates prevailing as late as ten
years ago had been maintained. A striking instance of the decline may be
drawn from New South Wales. In 1887 there were in that state 112,546
married women under the age of 45 years, in 1901 there were 149,247, yet
the number of children born was about the same in each year. From New
Zealand comes the cry that the children are not sufficiently numerous to fill
the schools, and in other states a like condition may be expected to arise,
seeing the reduction in the number of children below the school age.
From the standpoint of public polity the decline in the birth-rate is an
extremely serious matter. If the influx of population from outside Australia,
which is at present very slight, were to cease altogether, the birth and death
rates would probably adjust themselves as follows :—
Birth-rate 27'0 per thousand of population.
Death-rate 12'2 „ ,,
Natural increase 14'S ,. ,,
Ten years ago the natural increase was 20-3, and thirty years ago, 24 per
thousand. It is true that part of this falling off is due to the cessation of the
immigration of young married women ; but for ten years and more the move-
ment of population has been normal, and the decline in the natural increase
may be assumed to be a fixed condition of Australian social progress. Nor
is the decline peculiar to any particular state, for though actual figures can
be given for the four Eastern states only, there is every probability that in
the States of South Australia, Western Australia, and Tasmania the present
rates are greatly below what obtained as recently as 1891. The following
were the legitimate birth-rates per thousand married women under 45 years
of age in each division of Australasia for the year 1901 :—
New Zealand 246'1
Queensland 254'0
Tasmania 260'0
Victoria 228'6
New South Wales 235'3
South Australia 235 9
Western Australia 243 '9
In the year 1891 the average for Australasia was about 276 per thousand,
while the average of the foregoing rates is 239.
For New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, and New Zealand the rates
since 1861, in the case of the first two, and since 1881 for the others, are
shown in the following table ; as in the statement just given the rates are for
married women under 45 years of age.
Year.
New South
Wales.
Victoria.
Queensland.
New Zealand.
1861
340-8
3022
1871
331 '5
298-2
1881
336-3
298-4
316-2
312-2
1891
2887
297-7
327-7
275-7
1901
235 3
228-6
254-0
216-1
The experience of these states is very similar ; but to some the contraction
in the birth rate came earlier than to others. The following figures, which
are deduced from the New South Wales experience, may be taken as
exemplifying the condition of the states as a whole, They give the number
of legitimate births to every thousand married women under the age of 45
years during a period of twenty-one years; and from the persistent and
regular character of the fall, it may be surmised that the minimum has not
even yet been reached, and a further decline may bs looked for.
Year.
Rate.
Year.
Rate.
Year.
M
Rite. Year.
Rate.
1881
336-3
1887
333-4
1S92
286-4
1897
241-3
1882
330-5
1888
328-8
1893
281 -4
1898
229-6
1883
333-6
1889
304-2
1S94
267-1
1899
223-6
18S4
346-2
1890
304-7
! 1S95
280-3
1900
227-1
1885
3417
1891
288-7
1896
240-4
1901
235-3
1886
338-9
There appears nothing incongruous in a declining birth-rate in an old
civilisation, especially in one afflicted with the incubus of militarism; but
the extension of the phenomenon to new countries, where population is so
much desired, is novel and astonishing, and claims the deepest attention.
Marriage
THE ages at which women have married in New South Wales range from
14 to 98 years, and the ages of men from 17 to 82 years. These figures
have, however, little practical significance, so far, at least, as concerns the
question herein discussed, the chief interest of which lies in the age at
which women marry within the period of child-bearing. The average age of
women at marriage during the last five years was 23'95, and of men 28'87,
showing an average difference of 4-92 years between husband and wife. The
age at marriage amongst women has been gradually increasing, and is now
sixteen months later than it was in 1885. Taking the last four quinquennial
periods, the age at marriage was :—-
Years.
1881-1885 22-64
1SS6-1S90 22-84
1891-1895 23-26
1896-1903 23 95
The causes leading to the postponement of marriage are both ethical and
economic, and a discussion of them lies outside the purpose of this inquiry,
which deals only with observed phenomena. The effect of the postponement
is a practical question which will be referred to at length in a later chapter.
It has to be considered in conjunction with the reduction in the child-bearing
period, which it will be found has taken place during recent years, and also
with the growth of a custom, amongst a large section of the population, of
ante-nuptial intercourse, which makes the postponement of marriage indicated
by the registrations more apparent than real.
Women living in towns usually marry later than those in the rural
districts. Taking Sydney as the representative of the urban districts, the
average age at which women married was found, at the census of 1901, to be
23-42 years, compared with 22-89 years for the rest of the State. In some
parts of the State, especially where dairying and farming on a small scale
are carried on, the age at marriage is lower than in other districts; in coal-
mining districts it is also low ; in the other mining districts the age at
marriage is greater than amongst women in the urban districts.
Women of Australian birth comprised, at the Census of 1901, about 71 per
cent, of the married population of the State, and their proportion is daily
increasing. Immigration from Europe has of recent years been very
restricted, and is likely to continue so, and as years go by the mothers of
Australian-born children will themselves be more and more of Australian
birth. It is, therefore, important to distinguish the average marriage age of
Australian women compared with that of women of other origin. This, for
women living in the state at the date of the census of 1901, was :—
Age at
Birthplace. Marriage.
Australia 23•35 years.
England or Wales 25 '27 ,,
Ireland 26'30 „
Scotland 26'51 ,,
The average age at marriage of other than Australian born women is about
25-65 years, or 2-3 years higher than that of Australian women. This is a
very important difference, and, as will presently appear, is equivalent—other
6
things being equal—to the probability of sixty more children being born to
one hundred Australian women than to a like number of women of European
extraction.
It is difficult to see how the religion of a woman can affect her age at
marriage, except that, amongst religions which strictly enjoin upon both men
and women the vital principle of marriage within their own communion, there
may be in some cases a postponement, owing to the non-appearance of an
eligible parti of the right religion. The faiths most strict in regard to
marriage of their followers within their own fold are the Roman Catholic and
the Jewish, and, strange to say, it is amongst these that the largest proportion
of what are termed mixed marriages occur. Whatever effect adherence to the
commands of a church may have on the minds of isolated individuals, the
result upon the whole body of persons in these communions seems to be slight
indeed, for, as the following statement shows, there is little difference between
the average age at marriage of the members of any religious body. The
figures refer to women only.
Average Age at
Religion. Marriage.
Jews 22-93 years.
Methodist 23'31
Church of England 23 '37
Roman Catholic 23'82
Baptist 24-16
Presbyterian 24 '18
Congregational 24"18
The age of the husband, as will presently appear, is of far less importance
than that of the wife in all matters affecting child-bearing, and if the wife's
age were to remain the same, it would require a very considerable addition to
the average age of the husband to affect appreciably the birth-rate. During
the last ten years the average age at marriage for men has increased from
28-65 years to 28-87 years, too small a difference, in any ase, to be worthy
of consideration.
Ante-nuptial Conception.
]N"o intelligible discussion of the problems relating to child-birth can be
entered on, without a proper understanding of the extent to which the birth
and marriage rates are affected by ante-nuptial conceptions. The social
conditions which lead to these conceptions affect a considerable portion of the
Australasian population, but whether to a greater or less degree than in other
countries cannot be determined, as reliable statistics on the subject are almost
entirely wanting. It is convenient in dealing with ante-nuptial conceptions
to discuss, at the same time, certain aspects of illegitimacy, although it must
be admitted that the two are not necessarily different phases of the same
question.
During the ten years 1891-1900, there were in New South Wales 85,391
marriages, and of these, 22,094 were contracted after conception had taken
place. It will he thus seen that 259 in every thousand marriages are, in
regard to fecundity, so to speak, prejudiced, that is to say, the probability of
there being issue thereto is actually assured before the marriages take place.
Taking the usual age groups the following shows the number and proportions
of free and prejudiced marriages in the ten years :—
Age Group.
Marriages with Ante-nuptial
Conception.
Marriages without Ante-nuptial
Conception.
Proportion per 1,000
of total Marriages at
Age specified.
Proportion per 1,000
of total Marriages at
Age specified.
Number.
Number.
Under 20 . .
5,659
11,478
3,649
897
332
79
400
295
185
139
101
28
8,498
27,469
16,070
5,541
2,940
2,779
600
705
815
861
899
972
20 and under
25 „
30 „ ,,
35 „
40 and over
-25
30
35
40
It is convenient at this stage to refer to the question of illegitimacy, and,
for the purpose of the discussion, illegitimate births are treated as first births.
This is not always true, especially amongst older women, but the assumption
does not affect, in any appreciable degree, the correctness of any deductions
which may be made. Counting, then, illegitimates as first births, there were,
in the ten years 1891-1900, 94,708 first births, viz :—
First births of post-nuptial conception 48,271
,, ante-nuptial conception 22,094
,, illegitimate parentage ....... 24,343
This shows that in every thousand first-born children 51Q are of post-
nuptial conception, 233 of ante-nuptial conception, and 257 are illegitimate.
8
Distributing the 94,708 births according to the ages of the mothers some
very interesting results are shown. The ages quoted are for the mothers at
the time their children were born.
Illegitimate Births.
Within 9 months of
Marriage.
Legitimate Births.
9 months and upwards
after Marriage.
Age of Mother.
Per 1,000
of
first Births
at each age.
Number
of
Cases.
Number
of Cases.
Per 1,000 of
first Births.
Number
of Cases.
Per 1,000 of
first Births.
Under 20
6,704
9,427
4,308
2,107
1,361
436
398
220
189
263
409
482
5,659
11,478
3,649
897
332
79
336
263
160
112
4,469
21,924
14,858
4,996
1,635
389
266
512
651
625
491
430
20 and under 25
25 ,, 30
30 ,, 35
35 , 40 ,
100
40 and over
88
Total
24,343
257
22,091
233
48,271
510
When the mother's age is under 20 years the proportion of first births of
post-nuptial conception is considerably less than either those of ante-nuptial
conception or the illegitimate births. At ages 20-35 the births of post-
nuptial conception are greater than those of the other classes combined, but
at ages over 35 years they are somewhat less.
Considering the legitimates only, it will be seen that in the ten years there
were 70,365 births, and of these 22,094 were of ante-nuptial conception and
48,271 of unprejudiced marriages. This gives a proportion of 314 births of
ante-nuptial conception per thousand first births. These figures, however,
must not be taken as a measure of the prevalence of the custom of ante-
nuptial conception ; elsewhere it is shown that the marriages after conception
were 259 per thousand of all marriages. The two ratios are not inconsistent,
for, whereas all prejudiced marriages are followed by the birth of a child, the
marriages where conception has not already taken place are not necessarily
fecund.
The legitimate births of first conception for the ten years 1891-1901,
arranged according to the ages of mothers, were as follow :—
Post-nuptial Conception.
Ante-nuptial Conception.
Age of Mother.
Number
of
Cases.
Per l.OCO
first Births
at each age.
Number
of
Cases.
Per 1,000
first Births
at each age.
Under
20 and
2-3
30
35
40 and
20
4,469
21,924
14,858
4,996
1,635
389
441
656
803
848
831
831
5,659
11,478
3,649
897
332
79
559
344
197
152
169
169
under 25
,, 30
,, 35
,, 40
over
Total
48,271
686
22,094
3U
9
It will be seen that there is a marked decline in the rate of first births
following ante-nuptial conception as the age of the mother advances ; this is
not due, as might at first sight be supposed, to the superior wariness which
comes to women with the increase of years—subsequent figures clearly disprove
this—it is to be attributed rather to reluctance on the part of men to marry
women of mature years, even when such women are likely to become mothers.
Where parties are unmarried, and intercourse resulting in conception takes
place between them, it may be presumed that, in the case of one or other,
there is a desire that the illicit connection should end in marriage, but from
the nature of the case, it might be conjectured that the proportion of
marriages which follow illicit intercourse would be very irregular. The
statistics, however, disclose a surprising regularity ; the proportion of marriages
taking place after conception has been discovered being as follows :—
Cases of
Illegitimate
Birth.
Births within
nine months of
Marriage.
Total Births
from Illicit
Conception.
Marriages
following
Conception
per 1,000.
Year.
1891
2,114
1,848
3,962
466
1892
2,289
1,905
4,194
454
1893
2,486
1,981
4,467
443
1894
2,424
2,048
4,472
458
1895
2,507
2,226
4,733
470
1896
2,432
2,287
4,719
485
1897
2,433
2,416
4,849
498
1S98
2,497
2,408
4,905
491
1899
2,581
2,425
5,006
484
1900
2,580
2,550
5,130
497
The proportion of marriages following conception shows an increase, but
this increase has been gradual, and is such as might reasonably be expected
from the improved industrial conditions which the five years preceding the
close of the century have witnessed.
Distributing the births of ante-nuptial conception into the periods elapsing
from marriage to the occurrence of these births, some striking results are
obtained. Before presenting the table it would be well to point out that
some of the 3,330 children born in the seventh month may be of post-nuptial
conception. It is evident, however, that the number of such seventh-month
children must be very small. In the ten-year period, there were 3,228
children whose birth occurred at eight months after the marriage of their
parents, and there are plausible reasons for supposing that the births of
children of ante-nuptial conception should be more numerous at six months
than at either seven or eight months after marriage; but the same reasons
that favour that conclusion would also favour the supposition that the
seventh-month births should be more numerous than those of eight months.
Assuming that the number of seventh-month children is a mean between
those of six and eight months, the number of such would be 3,178 instead of
3,330 actually occurring, so that 152 is all that can be allowed for seventh-
month children of post-nuptial conception out of 70,365 legitimate children
first-born in the ten years, a figure which does not represent more than one
such birth in every 463. There are, however, no proper data to support any
definite conclusion on this interesting point.
10
The following is a statement of the number of marriages following
conception during the ten years 1891-1900 :—
Per
iod which marriage preceded
Birth of Child.
Number of
Marriages.
Under 1 month
1 month and ui
2 months and i
3
4
5
6
7
8
L ..
I 015
ader 2 mon
mder 3 mo
4
5
6
7
8
9
ths
1 148
nths
1 998
2 534
2 733
2 980
3 228
3 330
3 128
Total 22,094
^ The prospect of a woman being married after conception, and before the
birth of her child, is 476 in every thousand cases, a few more or less according
to the conditions of employment. The longer a marriage is delayed after
conception, the less likelihood is there of its being entered into, and a study
of the figures makes its obvious that, in a very large number of instances,
premarital intercourse is not an anticipation of marriage already arranged,
but that the marriage is forced upon the parties, and would not have been
entered into, were it not for the condition of the woman. The figures show
a decline in the number of marriages month by month as the period of
gestation draws to a close, but even to the last there is evidence of the almost
despairing pressure brought to bear on the father before it becomes too late
to save the legitimacy of the offspring.
Whether a woman will obtain marriage very much depends upon her age,
as the following figures clearly show:—
Legitimate Births
within 9 months
after marriage
and Illegitimate
Births.
Legitimate Births
within 9 months
after mai riage.
Proportion of
Births within
9 months after
marriage to 1,000
Births of Illicit
Conception.
Age of Women.
Under 20 years
12 363
5 659
AKQ
20 and under 25
20 905
n47fl
KAQ
25 „ 30
7 957
3filQ
JKQ
30 „ 35
3 004
897
OQQ
35 „ 40
1 693
332
IQft
40 and over
515
7Q
I tt
Total
46 437
22 094
47fi
The probability of a young woman of 20 or 25 years obtaining marriage is
549 in every thousand cases—this is the maximum. After a woman has
passed her 25th year the likelihood of her marriage grows rapidly less, and
after 40 years the probability sinks to 153 in every thousand.
11
Illegitimacy.
ACCORDING to the ordinary mode of reckoning, illegitimacy is on the increase
in ISTew South "Wales. The proportions of illegitimate to total births during
the years named were as follow :—
1881 43-6 per thousand.
1886 46-5 „
1891 53-6
1896 67-0 „
1901 71'6
This method of comparing the number of children born out of wedlock with
the total births is very apt to mislead; first, because the illegitimate births,
being comprised in the total births, are to some extent compared with them-
selves ; and second, and more important, the.illegitimate births are compared
with a standard, variable in itself, and which has been declining for many
years. The only way to obtain a fair idea of the illegitimacy of a population,
especially when the period under review covers a large number of years, is to
compare the number of births with the number of persons from whom alone
such illegitimacy can proceed ; that is to say, with the single women of child-
bearing age. On this basis of comparison the rates do not show much varia-
tion. During the past forty years the illegitimate rate for single women,
between the ages of 15 and 45 years, has varied between 15•29 per thousand
in 1861 and 19•84 in 1893. As the information does not present any special
characteristics, the rates for the decennial and quinquennial periods only are
given.
Number of
Single Women
of ages 15 and
under 45 years.
Illegitimate
Births.
Rate
per 1,000.
Year.
1861
29,959
458
15'29
1866
37,485
626
16•70
1871
46,901
782
16•67
1876
58,262
950
16•31
1881
72 375
1,263
17-45
1S86
91,943
1,687
18•35
1891
117,964
2,136
18-11
1896
140,823
2,422
17-20
1901
166,338
2,699
16•23
These figures make it quite clear that illegitimacy is not increasing in New
South Wales, and completely remove the false idea obtained by comparing
the legitimate with the illegitimate natality.
The very interesting question as to whether the causes which have affected
legitimate natality have also affected the birth of illegitimate children cannot
be solved by any statistics that are available, but it can hardly be supposed
that single women have learned less than their married sisters. The births,
therefore, compared with the number of unmarried women of nubile ages may
not give a complete answer to the question whether concubinage has increased
within recent years.
12
The birth-rates amongst unmarried women, arranged according to age
groups from 15 to 45 years, were, for the ten years which closed with 1900,
as shown in the following table; the rates for married women have been
inserted to complete the comparison :—
Age Groups of Mothers.
Birth-rate per 1,000.
Unmarried Women.
Married Women.
]5 and under 20 years
11-29
24-94
22-73
24-11
25-03
4-88
360-21
382-67
317-49
252-35
208-83
C6-25
20 25 ,
25 30 ,
30 35 ,
35 40 ,
40 45 ,
15 and under 45 years
17-58
253-69
It will be observed that amongst unmarried women there is no great
variation in the rates for the twenty years between age 20 and age 40 years,
while for married women the rates fall nearly one-half. The progression of
the rates, however, would correspond much more nearly were it not for the
marriage of women already pregnant, the proportion of such marriages being
much larger amongst women of the younger ages • adding the births of ante-
nuptial conceptions, the following results are obtained for each of the
foregoing age groups :—
Age Groups of Mothers.
Births of Ante-nuptial Concep-
tions and Illegitimate Births per
1,000 Unmarried Women.
20 and under 25 years
25 ?, 30 „
30 „ 35 ,,
35 „ 40 „
40 „ 45 „
53'52
40-97
33-87
30-82
5-82
These results are in much closer agreement with the progression of rates
for married women than those in the previous table, and if it be taken as
proved that the fecundity of the married, and the probable and actual
fecundity of the unmarried are about the same, then it must be concluded
that ^the birth-rate amongst unmarried women is subjected to the same
restrictions as amongst the married.
13
fecundity.
THE term fecundity is used throughout these pages to mean the power of
reproduction or proved ability to bear children, the existence of which is
shown by the birth of a child. This is the sense in which the word is used
in Dr. Matthews Duncan's work on u Fecundity, Fertility, and Sterility."
According to this definition, fertility can be predicated only of women who
are fecund, and a woman is said to be more or less fertile according to the
number of her children.
The probability of a marriage being fecund depends upon the age of a
woman at the time of her marriage, and decreases from the lower to the
higher, ages, slowly at first, but very rapidly as the limit of the child-bearing
period is approached.
In dealing with the question of fecundity there is an initial difficulty
arising out of the circumstance that, so far as concerns a large number of
women, the day of their marriage is not the point from which fecundity
should be reckoned, for in every thousand instances of first births 314 are due
to ante-nuptial conceptions. An actual example, will show the difficulties of
the case. In New South Wales, during the five years, 1896-1900, 2,697
marriages were contracted by women 25 years of age, and to these have been
or will be born 2,454 first children. But, as 672 of these women were
already with child at the time of their marriage, the question arises, were not
these women only a portion of those who were liable to conception before
marriage. Undoubtedly such was the case, and it is a probable assumption
that the proportion of women who were with child before marriage as com-
pared with the whole number of single women who were liable so to become,
was somewhat the same as the proportion of other women of the same age
but of non-prejudiced marriage who became mothers, compared with the total
of unprejudiced marriages.
In the instance given, there were 2,025 non-prejudiced marriages, to which
were born 1,782 children, and 672 prejudiced marriages (i.e., marriages with
ante-nuptial conception) with an equal number of births. In the first case,
the proportion of fecund marriages is 88 per cent., and in the second, 100
per cent.; this latter ratio is, of course, most unlikely, and the probabilities
are that, besides the 672 cases in which marriage took place, there were others
in which, in the absence of conception, marriage did not follow, and therefore,
to obtain a true idea of fecundity, all marriages attended by ante-nuptial
conception should be excluded. This course has been adopted in the following
table, which gives the number of marriages that will prove fecund in every
thousand entered into. The information is based on the experience of the
seven years from 1891 to 1897, full allowance being made for unproved
conceptive power at the close of 1901, to which year the expeiience extends.
PERIOD 1801-1897.
Age of Woman at
Marriage.
Fecund Marriages,
per 1,000.
Age of Woman at
Marriage.
Fecund Marriages,
per 1,000.
Years.
Years.
20
912
36
597
21
909
37
513
22
906
38
427
23
903
39
357
24
897
40
307
25
889
41
260
26
880
42
215
27
869
43
171
28
855
44
131
29
841
45
92
30
825
46
61
31
795
47
41
32
764
48
22
33
732
49
9
34
696
50
0
35
653
4
The proportion of marriages proving fecund diminishes as the age at
marriage increases ; the diminution after age 30 is attained being very rapid,
so that at 37 years the probabilities of fecundity or of childlessness are about
the same ; at age 41 the respective probabilities are as 260 to 740 ; at age 45
only 92 out of a thousand marriages are fecund, while at age 50 there°is no
probability of a child being born.
The great fall in the birth-rate of Australia during the last two decades
has been elsewhere alluded to, and one of the factors partly accounting for
it, viz., the increase in the age of women at marriage has been discussed. A
second factor in the decline is the increase in absolute sterility, that is to say,
the falling off in the proportion of fecund maniages, and though an exact
measure of this increased sterility cannot be given, there is ample evidence to
show that it has been considerable. The difficulty in determining the actual
increase of sterility arises from the fact that information in regard to ante-
nuptial conception does not extend further back than 1891, a°nd any cor-
rections applied to earlier figures would be on the assumption that the
experience of 1891-1900 held good for the previous thirty years, an
assumption which it would be somewhat unsafe to make. Leaving out of
consideration, therefore, the question of ante-nuptial conceptions the apparent
fecundity at different periods was as shown below. The figures indicate the
number of marriages proving fecund in every thousand entered into, and
depend partly upon information obtained at the Census of 1901 and partly
on the records pertaining to the deaths of married woman during the past
twenty years. "•
Age of Woman at
Period of Marriage.
Marriage.
1861-1870.
1871-1880.
1881-1890.
1891-1897.
15
987
987
980
978
20
970
972
966
948
25
963
948
941
919
30
923
897
873
852
35
845
801
739
706
40
719
576
504
410
45
234
275
125
92
15
Taking the figures as they stand, it will be seen that there has been a
considerable decline in the fecundity of women marrying during recent years,
as compared with those marrying twenty years ago. This decline is visible in
every age group, but especially after age 30. The decline between 1861-70
and 1891-97 at each age group stated as a percentage was :—
Age of Women at Marriage.
Years.
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Decline in Fecundity.
Per cent.
0-9
2-3
46
7-7
16-5
430
60'1
Taking the average age at marriage (25 years) the proportion of marriages
contracted from 1861 to 1870 which proved fecund was 963 in every thousand,
leaving 37 childless, whereas, for present day marriages, allowing for
unproved fecundity at the close of 1901, the proportion is 919 fecund, and
childless 81. A reduction in fecundity from 963 to 919 per thousand
marriages represents a fall of 4•6 per cent.; it is probable the actual fall,
that is, allowing for ante-nuptial conceptions, was higher, viz. :— from 951 to
889 per thousand marriages or 6•6 per cent., but, as the birthrate for the
same period fell from 41•74 per thousand to 27'76, the decline in the propor-
tion of fecund marriages does not go very far to account for the diminished
birth-rate.
Looking at the question as from the point of view of the increase of
childless marriages the figures are very striking, even without allowance for
ante-nuptial conceptions. The following comparison shows the proportion of
childless marriages contracted at various ages, arranged in decennial periods
from 1861 to 1897 :—
Age of Mother at
Marriage.
Period of Marriage.
1861-1870.
1871-18SO.
1381-1S90.
1891-1897.
15
13
13
20
22
20
30
28
34
52
25
37
52
59
81
30
77
103
127
148
35
155
199
261
294
40
281
424
£96
590
45
766
725
875
908
16
Geographical Distribution of fecundity.
THE proportion of childless marriages differs considerably in different parts
of the state. This will be seen from the following statement, based on
information obtained at the Census of 1901. The figures give the present
age of married women, and for every 1,000 of such women, the number who
were without children. It will, of course, be understood that many women,
especially at the younger ages, have been married recently and may still become
mothers, and the figures have only a comparative, not an absolute value.
20
and under
25.
25
and under
30.
30
and under
35.
35
and under
40.
40
and under
45.
Division.
City and Suburbs of Sydney
318
209
146
120
115
Balance of Metropolitan County (Cumber-
land)
256
142
80
79
69
Coastal Districts
236
125
73
58
60
Table-land
229
124
74
58
58
Western Slope
234
117
79
70
64
Riverina and Plains east of Darling
253
112
105
76
75
Counties Robinson and Yancowinna
Plains west of Darling
281
184
137
152
99
98
227
The foregoing figures are not altogether conclusive, as the age attained is
not necessarily an index of tlie duration of marriage, and both age and
duration are factors in determining fecundity. It is not, "however, likely that
the duration of marriage for women of like age differs greatly in the different
districts.
It will be seen that in the city and suburbs of Sydney, women at all ages
show the largest proportion of childless marriages, while fecundity is highest
in the three divisions comprising the Coast Districts, the Table-land, and
Western Slope. Of the other divisions, counties Robinson and Yancowinna,
in which copper and silver mining are carried on extensively, and in which
are situated the towns of Cobar and Broken Hill, more nearly approach the
city and suburbs of Sydney, while the plains near the Darling show an
average rate between the general rural and urban rate. These last-mentioned
divisions are, no doubt, affected by the fact, as made evident by the 1901
Census, that a large proportion of husbands are away from home during a
considerable part of the year. Tb.3 chief business of the country is sheep-
farming, and the stations are wide in extent, and these absences are
necessitated by the manner in which the industry is carried on.
It is obvious that the differences shown in the foregoing statement are not
all, or in any large degree, due to climatic influences. The district of Sydney
17
has a climate similar in all essential respects to that of the rest of the coastal
district. The Table-land, on the contrary, differs greatly as regards climate
from the coast, yet has about the same average fecundity. The explanation
of the difference must, therefore, be sought for, either in the influence of
town life or in the occupations of the people. As to the influence of town life,
this, so far as concerns New South Wales, may be summed up in the question
of artificial checks, the aids to which are more accessible in the cities than in
the country. As regards the influence of occupation, very little of value can
be determined, for though the comparative fecundity of the wives of men
following different callings can be ascertained with some degree of accuracy,
differences between husbands by no means indicate differences of like degree
between their wives, and, moreover, in Australia, the present occupation of a
man is not necessarily an indication of the occupation followed by him at his
marriage, and when his children were begotten. The subject is one of great
complexity, and it is disappointing that the present inquiry is able to
contribute-so little to its solution.
18
pecuijdity iij relatioi] to Birthplace ai)d
Religious Belief.
IT lias been pointed out that the future birth-rate of the state will depend
more and more largely, as time goes on, upon the child-bearing of women of
Australian birth, as the influx of women of European origin has ceased to be
an important factor in the increase of the population. In 1891, the married
women of New South Wales who were born in Australia and New Zealand
numbered 96,528, in a total of 165,571; in 1901 their number was 146,039,
in a total of 206,186 ; the proportion of such women increased, therefore,
during the ten years from 58 to 71 per cent.
The following is the ascertained number of childless marriages in every
1,000 contracted at the ages mentioned, but, owing to the occurrence of many
births of ante-nuptial conception and the impossibility of adjusting the rates
for women of different birthplaces to allow therefor, the figures must be
taken as showing the apparent rates, the true rates for marriages not
prejudiced by ante-nuptial conception being somewhat higher. In order
that the comparisons should be equal for all women, those only have been
included whose marriage has subsisted for a period of at least five years :—
Birth-place.
Age at Marriage.
18
20
25
30
35-
New South Wales
21
34
42
33
35
40
32
56
60
39
45
63
58
85
106
74
74
119
114
176
212
127
157
253
255
345
362
359
403
352
Other States of Australia and New Zealand
England and Wales
Scotland ... .
Ireland t
Other countries
The fecundity of Australian women is greater than that of European
women living in Australia at every age of marriage, and amongst other
women the Scotch show greater fecundity than the Irish, and the Irish than
English women. Women of these nationalities and Australian women form
the great bulk of the married population, women of non-British birth
comprising only 2|- per cent. Taking women of all ages living in New
South Wales, who, in 1901, had been married more than five years, and had
not attained the age of 45 years when they married, the following statement
shows their number and the proportion of childless women per 1,000. There
is a slight difference in the average age at marriage of women of different
nationalities, the average for New South Wales women being, for example,
about 2 years and 4 months below that of British women; but a full
19.
allowance on this score will not alter the position of the women of - New
South Wales, as superior fecundity is shown by them at every age :-
Birth-place.
Total W'ves Wives without Childless Wives
Children. per 1,000.
New South Wales
89 398
4 322
4.Q
Other Australian States and New Zealand
England and Wales
18,082
26 780
1,376
76
106
2 829
Scotland
6 291
505
80
Ireland
14 145
1 314.
no
Other countries
3 992
426
10Q
All countries
158 618
10 772
fiS
The superior fecundity of Australian women is found to prevail both in
the urban and in the rural districts, and is certainly difficult of explanation.
It has been variously attributed to racial peculiarities, social habits, and
climatic conditions. As regards the first of these, the Australian people, are
of English, Irish, and Scotch descent almost exclusively, the proportion of
other races represented amongst them being very slight. There has., however,
been no complete amalgamation of the various British stocks; on the contrary,
there has been a tendency for the Irish and their descendants of the first
generation, and of the Scotch and their descendants, to marry amongst their
own people. This tendency is not now so marked as formerly, "and it seems
probable that a few generations hence there will be few Australians who will
not be able to count amongst their immediate ancestors persons of English,
Irish, and Scotch descent. That the process of amalgamation has/not gone
farther is to be attributed to the fact that few persons have an Australian
ancestry extending beyond three generations; indeed, the great majority of
Australian born adults are Australians of the first generation only/ "Racially,
therefore, the Australian people do not differ from their fellow colonists, of
British birth. Nor is the superior fecundity of the Australian bqrri women
attributable to a difference in their material condition. Australians, are
represented in all walks of life somewhat proportionately to.thei^ numbers
in the total population, and their command over material comforts is 'the
same as that of the rest of the community. The suggestion that 'the superior
fecundity of Australian women is due to the influence of climate is probably
in the main correct, but the statistics available throw no light,' on, this
interesting question. , There is, in Australia, a consensus of opinion that
Australian girls usually arrive at the pubertal state at an earlier_ ;age th^n
girls born in the British Isles, and earlier pubescence may lead to gre'ate'r
comparative fecundity, though not to greater fertility, "But too much,
importance may perhaps be attached to the figures in the preceding tables.
It is true that Scotch women appear to have amongst them 80'per 1,000
childless women, the Irish 93, and the English 106, as compared with 48
amongst New South Wales women, and these numbers show 66 per cent,
more sterility for Scotch, 94 for Irish, and 104 for English women ; but this
is an exaggerated way of looking at the matter, for, as regards ratio of
fecundity, the women of English birth may be said to be 6: per cent, less
fecund than Australian women, the women of Irish birth 4'7 per cent., and
the Scotch 3•4 per cent.
In connection with the question of birthplaces, a peculiar condition of
fecundity is observable. Women in every age-group are more fecund with
husbands of their own nationality than with husbands of different origin.
20
This peculiarity is strongly marked in the following series, which shows the
proportion of childless marriages per 1,000 amongst women who have taken
husbands of other nationalities compared with the proportion amongst women
who have married men of their own nationalities. Unlike the previous table,
the figures now given include not only women who have been married for at
least five years, but all women, as it has not been found possible to present
the information in any other form.
Childless Marriages.
Husbands of same
country.
Husbands of other
country.
New South Wales ,
113
]50
1-17
96
109
132
166
173
156
157
Other Australian States
England and Wales
Scotland
Ireland
That artificial means are resorted to in order to prevent conception must
be obvious to all, and that the use of these checks is increasing may be taken
as proved by the figures herein given* The moral aspect of prevention is not
here under discussion ; but as the habit is discountenanced by the authorised
teachers of most forms of religion, it would be interesting to inquire if the
statistics give evidence that the views of the teachers are supported by the
practice of the adherents. The figures relating to fecundity, however, throw
very little light on the problem. A high fecundity rate is not in itself a proof
of the absence of preventive checks to conception. The test of fecundity which
these tables exhibit is the birth of one child to a woman during her marriage;
and as this investigation proceeds it will be seen that some women may be
less fecund than others, and at the same time more fertile. This, for instance,
is the case with women of Irish birth. They are less fecund than women born
either in New South Wales or in Scotland, but more fertile—that is to say,
fewer Irish women have children, but to those who are fecund more children
are born. The question of religious opinion as affecting child-bearing cannot,
therefore, be discussed until the question of fertility is dealt with. It will
be convenient, therefore, to defer its consideration until a later chapter.
The following statement deals with the principal religions represented at
the Census of 1901 ; and in order that the comparison might be absolutely
on a level for all, it has been restricted, as in the table relating to birth-places,
to women who were married before they had reached their 45th year, and
who at the date of the Census had been married for five years and upwards,
and whose fecundity may, therefore, be taken as having been fully tested.
The figures show the number of unfruitful marriages out of every thousand
contracted.
Age at Marriage.
18
20
25
30
35
Church of England .....
Roman Catholic
28
44
41
80
65
169
145
321
341
27
Methodist
18
30
57
102
281
Presbyterian
30
36
68
130
313
Hebrew
65
62
113
924
438
Others
34
47
85
168
329
21
Taking women of all ages who were married within the child-bearing
period, and whose marriage has subsisted for live years or more, the following
figures give the proportion of childless marriages in the state of New South
Wales as ascertained at the Census of 1901.
Wives with-
out Children
Fecund
Wives per
1,000.
Childless
Wives per
1,000.
Religion,
Total Wives.
Church of England
74,080
39,297
17,371
15,745
794
11,331
5,245
2,620
858
1,064
73
912
929
933
951
932
908
920
71
67
49
68
92
80
Roman Catholic
Methodist
Presbyterian
Hebrew
Other Religions
All Religions
158,618
10,772
932
68
Taking the figures as they stand it would appear that Methodist women
display more fecundity than women of any other faith ; next in order come
Roman Catholics, Presbyterians, and women belonging to the Church of
England. Jewish women stand lowest on the list. The difference in
fecundity between the highest and the lowest class is only 4•3 per cent., a
proportion which would make little difference in the actual birth-rate.
The superior fecundity of marriages entered into by persons of the same
nationality as compared with marriages of persons of different origin has been
referred to; a like phenomenon is observable in connection with religions.
This is clearly brought out in the following table. In some measure, the two
phenomena may be due to the working of the same causes, for Anglicanism
is the religion of the majority of the natives of England, just as Presby-
terianism is that of the majority of Scotsmen, and Roman Catholicism is the
national religion of the Irish. This, however, does not go far to explain this
peculiar condition of fecundity. One important denomination, the Methodist,
displays the same characteristics as the other religions, and Methodism is not
in any marked degree professed by persons of one nationality. The following
were the childless marriages in every thousand ; it has not been possible to
restrict the table to marriages that have existed for five years and upwards,
therefore, as in the similar table relating to birth-places, all married women
have been included.
Husbands of same
Religion.
Husbands of other
Religion.
Church of England ...
129
181
Roman Catholic
118
163
Methodist
106
180
Presbyterian ...
115
173
Hebrew
134
306
The difference in the extent of childless marriages, comparing women
married to husbands of their own faith with women married to other husbands,
is very marked, especially for Jewish women. It is curious to note that
difference of religion in husband and wife appears to affect fecundity to a
much greater degree that does difference of nationality, and when the question
of fertility comes to be discussed it will be seen that the same peculiarity is
observable.
Birthrate according to /ge of Bother aijd of
father.
IN the ten years, 1891, to 1900, inclusive, there occurred in New South
"Wales 356,511 legitimate and 24,608 illegitimate births.
The youngest mother was 12 years old and unmarried, but, in the course
of the ten years there was happily only one such mother. At age 13 there were
twelve mothers, and at age 14 eighty-four. At the other extreme, there was
one mother, at age 58, one at 56, three at 55, of whom one was unmarried,
two at 54 (one unmarried), five at 53, and one at 51 years.
For every 10,000 married mothers the age distribution was found to be as
shown in the following table :—
Proportion of
Mothers at each
age per 10,000
legitimate births.
Total Children
in 10,000
born at or before
each age.
Proportion of
Mothers at each
age per 10,000
legitimate births.
Total Children
in 10,000
aorn at or before
each age.
Mother's Age:
Mother's Age.
15
2
2
33
443
7,297
16 :
13
15
34
421
7,718
17
46
61
35
397
8,115
18
107
168
36
362
8,477
19
191
359
37
325
8,802
20
258
617
38
284
9,086
21
371
988
39
241
9,327
22
454
1,442
40
200
9,527
23
524
1,966
41
160
9,687
24
555
2,521
42
118
9,805
25
563
3,084
43
81
9,886
26
588
3,672
44
51
9,937
27 :
577
4,249
45
33 •
9,970
28 .
593
4,842
46
18
9,988
29
540
5,382
47
9
9,997
30
515
5,897
48
2
9,999
31
491
6,388
49
1
10,000
32
466
6,854
At age 50 there were, during the ten years 1891-1900, only eight births
-amongst 31,555 married women of that age. This gives a rate of only one
l)irth to 3,944 women.
From the foregoing it would appear that one-fourth of all children have
mothers whose ages are below 24 years, one-half have mothers below 28 years
and 4 months, and three fourths below 33 years and 6 months. The following
is a statement of the exact age attained by mothers when the indicated
proportions of children are born. The figures in this, and in the preceding
table, refer to married mothers only.
Percentage of
Children.
Age of Mothers.
Percentage of
Children.
Age of Mothers.
5
Years. Months.
19 7
60
Years. Months.
30 3
10
21 0
70
32 4
<?o
23 1
75
33 6
25
24 0
80
34 9
30
24 10
90
37 8
40
26 7
95
39 10
50
28 3
23
It will have been seen that the years of proved possible fertility in New
South Wales extend from the 12th to the 58th year, both inclusive, or over
a period of 47 years, but as not more than seven and a half per cent, of all
children are born to mothers who are not between the ages of 19 and 41 years,
the period of child-bearing could, for all practical purposes, be taken as the
twenty-two years included within these limits. It is customary, however, to
count the reproductive period as extending to the forty-fifth year, and in the
various tables yet to be given, the term child-bearing period for married
women, will be taken as including all women under 45 years of age.
It will have been observed that the proportion of births increases with
each year of the mother's life up to about 28 years, which is the age when
most children are born. Age 28 is not, however, the period of greatest
fertility, for, as will be seen later on, a woman reaches the summit of her
fertility seven years earlier.
The important effect which ante-nuptial conceptions have on the birth-rate
has been dwelt upon at some length in a previous chapter, and in determining
the probability of a woman of a given age giving birth to a child, due
allowance must be made on this score. In the following statement is shown
the probability of a married woman at each specified age giving birth to a
child. Two probabilities are given, viz., (a) for all women, and (b) for women
not already pregnant when they were married. It will be seen that the
effect of ante-nuptial conceptions is greatly to exaggerate the apparent
fertility at the earlier ages.
Probable Births within a year to
1,000 married women.
Probable Births within a year to
1,000 married women.
Age.
Age.
Actual rate
excluding
ante-nuptial
conception.
Apparent rate
including
ante-nuptial
conception.
(a)
Actual rate
excluding
ante-nuptial
conception.
Apparent rate
including
ante-nuptial
conception.
(a)
19
279
390
35
194
196
20
287
371
36
183
184
21
293
354
37
172
173
22
293
338
38
159
160
23
291
323
39
146
147
24
288
309
40
131
132
25
281
296
41
115
115
26
275
285
42
96
96
27
267
273
43
75
75
28
259
263
44
55
55
29
250
253
45
38
38
30
242
245
46
23
23
31
233
235
47
13
13
32
223
225
48
6
6
33
214
216
49
3
3
34
204
206
The foregoing shows a very low fertility rate compared with what has ruled
in previous years. The extent of the decline may be gauged from the
following table, showing births per thousand women of the stated ages :—
Age of Mother.
Period of Marriage.
1850 to 1870.
1871 to 1880. j 1891 to 1900.
20 and
25
30
35
40
45
50
under 25 ye
30
35
40
45
50
55
ars ...
420
414
391
296
163
60
10
358
352
337
292
150
54
10
293
267
223
172
96
13
1
The decline from the first to the second period is susceptible of explanation
entirely apart from any suggestion of the use of artificial checks. The period
1850 to 1870 was one during which Australia received an accession of female
population of an exceptionally vigorous type, and it is probable that the birth
rate, especially for the younger classes of women, was on this account
exceptionally high. During the second period the birth rate per thousand of
the population ranged between 38 to 40, which compares very favourably
with that of other countries with population similarly constituted. To
compare the fertility rates of present day marriages with the rates
ascertained for 1850-1870 would give an exaggerated impression of the
decline that has since taken place. There are many reasons for supposing
that the fertility rates for 1871-80 represent, if not a condition of life in
marriage uninfluenced by considerations of restriction, yet one in which the
results of restriction were not greatly manifest, and, therefore, this is one
with which subsequent periods may be compared without fear of exaggeration.
In the foregoing table the ten years from 1881 to 1890 are left out of con-
sideration. This has been done, not because there is lack of information avail-
able ; but because the rapid decline in the rates, especially towards the end of
the period, makes any comparison for the whole ten years quite valueless.
Comparing the fertility rates of 1871-1880 with those of the last decade,
it will be seen that there has been a decline at every age group, and an
examination of the details shows that at age 37 the fertility of the earlier
period is equal to the summit of fertility in the latter, that is to say, at age
22, and taking all ages of marriage the reduction in fertility is equivalent to
about 25 per cent. From whatever point the matter be viewed, it must be
confessed that so great a falling off in the fertility of the married women of
a new country, as indicated by the figures just given, is an economic and
social problem of very great import, the seriousness of which will perhaps be
more clearly realised when the actual number of children born to married
couples comes to be discussed in a later chapter.
The reputed ages of the fathers of children born in the ten years under
consideration, varied between 16 and 85 years. It will be seen, when the
effect of the parents' age on child-bearing is further dealt with, that the
number of offspring to a marriage depends, in the great majority of instances,
upon the age of the female. Concerning the effective duration of male fer-
tility, nothing of a determinative character can be proved from the statistics;
the duration is, and must remain, largely a matter of speculation, until
decided on other evidence than the mere statements of the parents, which in
this instance form the basis of the statistics. It should, therefore, hardly
25
need to be pointed out, that the occurrence of the birth of a child to fathers
of such an advanced asje as 85 years, as shown in the New South Wales
statistics, must be held to be extremely doubtful.
Although the question of the husband's age is not of great importance, it
will arise later on in connection with bigenous natality, and it is desirable
that the probability of a birth to the wives of men of different ages should be
given. The following statement affords this information.
Probable Annual
Births to 1,000
wives of husbands
of age stated.
Probable Annual
Births to 1,000
wives of husbands
of age stated.
Probable Annual
Births to 1,000
wives of husbands
of age stated.
Age of
Husbands.
Age of
Husbands.
Age of
Husbands.
20
297
37
210
54
59
21
299
38
199
55
56
22
299
39
187
56
53
23
298
40
175
57
51
24
296
41
162
58
48
25
293
42
148
59
46
26
289
43
135
60
44
27
284
44
123
61
42
28
279
45
112
62
40
29
273
46
102
63
38
30
267
47
93
64
36
31
261
48
86
65
34
32
255
49
80
66
33
33
247
50
75
67
31
34
239
51
70
68
29
35
231
52
66
69
28
36
221
53
63
70
27
26
first Births.
THE discussion of the phenomena attending first births is greatly affected
by the circumstances that nearly one third (31 per cent.) of all such births
are due to ante-nuptial conception. During the ten years 1891-1900, there
were 70,365 first-born children, and the birth of 22,094 of these occurred*
within nine months of the marriage of their parents, and were therefore of
ante-nuptial conception, with the exception of a few occurring at seven
months. The probable number of seventh-nlorith children has already been
discussed, and it will be seen that their exclusion from the post-nuptially
conceived will not affect, in any appreciable degree, the conclusions herein
arrived at.
The probability of a marriage proving fecund has been shown to decline
rapidly as the age at marriage increases ; the following table shows that the
period elapsing from marriage to the birth of a first child also increases with
the age of the mother at marriage. The following are the -average periods
elapsing from marriage to the birth of a child for mothers of each age ; the
figures are the actual averages without adjustment.
Marriage to
Birth of First
Child.
Marriage to
Birth of First
Child.
Marriage to
Birth of First
Child.
Marriage to .
Birth of First
Child.
Age of
Mother.
Age of
Mother.
Age of
Mother.
Age of
Mother.
months.
months.
months.
months.
17
14-2
23
16-9
29
22-9
35
31-3
18
14-7
24
17-4
30
25-7
36
35-2
19
lo'O
25
18'2
31
25'6
37
31-5
20
157
26
18-7
32
30-4
38
34-5
21
15-4
27
20-4
33
29-2
39
34-6
22
15-8
28
21-7
34
29-1
For women 20 years of age and under 25 the average period from marriage
to the birth of the first child is 16•3 months ; for women 25 and under 30
years, 19•9 months ; 30 and under 35 years, 27•5 months; and 35 and under
40 years, 33•2 months ; for all women, the interval is 19-6 months. Although
the average varies only about twenty months, as between the first and last
years (17 and 39), shown in the preceding table, the time amongst individuals
varies by more than as many years, for the New South Wales records show
that a first birth has taken place at so remote a period from marriage as
22 years.
The time elapsing from marriage to the birth of the 48,271 children of
post-nuptial conception, occurring in the ten years, has been ascertained, and
is indicated in the following statement; for convenience sake the numbers
have been reduced to the proportions due to 10,000 marriages. It has been
necessary to make some slight adjustments to allow for the fact that the
births are not, in all cases, due to the marriages of the period. The process
of adjustment is rather tedious and without special features of interest, and
involved the addition of only 207 probable births to the 48,271 actually
recorded ; it has, therefore, not been considered worth while to insert it here.
37
It would be well to observe that the period denoted as 9 months represents
9 months and under 10 months; 35 months represents 35 months and under
36 ; 3 years represents 3 years and under 4 years, and similarly for the other
periods.
First Births to end of
each period.
First Births to end of
each period.
Period
after
Marriage.
Number of
Births.
Per cent, of
Total Births.
Period
after
Marriage.
Number of
Births.
Per cent, of
Total Births.
Months.
Number.
Months.
Number.
9
1,249
1,249
16-59
32
43
6,789
90-18
10
1,158
2,407
31-97
33
39
6,828
90-70
11
818
3,225
42-84
34
36
6,864
91-18
12
592
3,817
50-70
35
34
6,898
91-63
13
453
4,270
56-72
Years.
14
351
4,621
61•38
3
251
7,149
94-97
15
306
4,927
65-45
4
132
7,281
96'72
16
252
5,179
68-80
5
68
7,349
97-62
17
205
5,384
71'52
6
48
7,397
98-26
18
180
5,564
73-91
7
32
7,429
98'68
19
154
5,718
75-96
8
28
7,457
99-06
20
145
5,863
77-88
9
21
7,478
99-34
21
127
5,990
79-57
10
13
7,491
99-51
22
114
6,104
81 -08
11
10
7,501
99-64
23
107
6,211
82-51
12
9
7,510
99-76
24
91
6,302
83-71
13
3
7,513
99-80
25
S3
6,385
84-82
14
4
7,717
99-85
26
75
6,460
85-81
15
4
7,521
99-91
27
68
6,528
86-72
16
3
7,524
99-95
28
62
6,590
87-54
17
2
7,526
99-97
29
57
6,647
88-30
18
1
7,527
99-99
30
52
6,699
88•99
20
7,527
99-99
31
47
6,746
89-61
22
1
7,528
100-00
It would appear from the foregoing figures that 7,528 out of 10,000
marriages will prove fecund ; of the remaining 2,472, some are marriages
that will be cut off by death, some the marriages of those who have married
too late to bear children ; but the greater number are marriages which would
be childless in any circumstances. If a woman is fecund, in 500 cases in
1,000 she will give birth to a child within thirteen months of marriage, in
750 cases within eighteen months and a half, and in 900 cases within about
thirty-two months. When a woman has been married five years, and has
not given birth to a child, the probabilities are nearly fifteen to one that she
will not conceive; when a marriage has subsisted childless ten years, the
probabilities are sixty-eight to one against conception.
The decline in the fecundity of present day marriages compared with those
at former periods has already been discussed from the standpoint of the
woman's age at marriage. Taking all women under 45 years of age, the
following is a statement of the probable number of such women who, not
having been mothers, will give birth to a child within twelve months. The
table commences with the year 1891, and closes with 1900, and therefore
embraces a full intercensal period. The figures have been arranged in two
columns, the first includes births due to ante-nuptial conception, and the
second is exclusive of such. A comparison of the two sets of figures will
afford information as to the effect which ante-nuptial conceptions have in
sustaining the marriage and the birth rates.
28
BIRTHS to 1,000 women under 45 years, without previous issue :—
Including1
Ante-nuptially
conceived Births.
Excluding-
Ante-nuptially
conceived Births.
Including
Ante-nuptially
conceived Births.
Excluding:
Ante-nuptially
conceived Births.
Year.
Year.
1891
504
427
1896
430
332
1892
500
423
1897
412
312
1893
505
423
1898
406
312
1894
476
386
1899
394
302
1895
461
362
1900
383
291
The reduction in the birth of first children during the short space of ten
years, which this table shows, is from 427 to 291 per thousand, equal to
31•85 per cent.
29
Birtljs to Worsen with Previous Issue.
IT is, perhaps, natural that women who have been mothers should be
desirous of postponing * recurrence of the cares incidental to child-bearing
for as long a time as possible, and, therefore, the interval between a woman's
confinements might reasonably be expected to grow longer as the number
of her children increases. Actual experience shows differently, and it would
appear that the period elapsing between confinements does not lengthen as
the number of children increases. This condition probably arises from the
circumstance that the less fertile women, who form the majority of those with
one to four children, have comparatively long intervals between their con-
finements, and thus increase the average of all women. When this class
ceases to bear, the remaining women, whose earlier children were bom at
short intervals, continue to bear with much the same rapidity, and the
average interval between the births of later children appears less than for
those born in the earlier married years.
The following is a statement of the average time elapsing between each
successive birth :—
Months,
Marriage to birth of 1st child 192
1st child to birth of 2nd
2nd 3rd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
28-8
26-4
24-0
20'4
24-0
23-4
20-4
20-4
20-4
The table just given deals with women of all ages. A still more interesting
presentation of the facts relating to the time elapsing from marriage ^to the
births of successive children is obtained by showing the ages at marriage in
conjunction with the issue. The average age of mothers at the birth of each
child, from women marrying at ages 20, 25, 30, and 35 years, is set out in
the following statement:—
Mother's Age.
Age at Marriage.
1st Child.
20-000
21-635
25-000
26•689
30•000
31-688
35-000
36-724
2nd
23*676
28-721
33-651
38-708
3rd
25-782
30-828
35-731
40-570
4th
27'931
32-835
37-772
42-303
5th
29-607
34-503
39-212
ftf V>
01 ••7R1
'-$6•515
41-061
7fli
oq.o7«
38•469
42-811
Oft-
OX.CMO
40•359
44-443
GfTh
07 .QK£
4^' 176
inth
OQ.QQfi
43•905
1 1 f TK
41 -74.R
45-535
1O+ Vi
4O.KAQ
47 '030
1 q+u
45•175
14th
46 '768
15th
48-298
80
These figures are based on the experience of all women living in the state
at the date of the Census, and do not, therefore, give the expectation of
women who have married recently or of future marriages. They afford
additional evidence, if such were needed, ql the incorrectness of the popular
assumption that the fertility of women marrying at immature ages soon
becomes exhausted, The figures, however, seem to show that when women
marry at mature years and prove fecund, their children come a little more
quickly than those of younger women. The evidence on the point is, however,
somewhat conflicting, and this view cannot be stron^y pressed.
The birth of each succeeding child brings a woman nearer and nearer to the
limit of her child-bearing, and there is a far larger proportion of older women
amongst those with large than amongst those with small families. This will
be seen from the following statement, in which the average age of mothers at
the birth of each child is given.
Average Age of Mother.
1st
child
25-6 '
VPft
2nd
28'0
3rd
30-2
4th
32-2
5th
33 '9
6th
35-9
7th
37'9
8t,h
.. . 39'6
9th
41•3
10th
44-3
The increase in the-age of the mothers ought to-be accompanied by a
decline in fertility, and such appears to bs tite case. Much more than this is
disclosed by the following table, which gives the number of children born
within a year to 1,000 women under 45 years of age with the specified num-
ber of previous issue. The figures cover a full intercensal period.
NUMBER of Children born in 12 months to 1,000 women according to
previous issue.
With 1
child.
With 2
child-
ren.
With 3
child-
ren.
With 4
child-
ren.
With 5
child-,
ren.
With 6
child-
ren.
With 7
child-
ren.
With 8
child-
ren.
With 9
child-
ren.
With 10
child-
ren.
With 11 and
more
children.
1891,..
345
J269
268
2;56
26.0
231
228
.232
227
193
;- 174
1892...
326
264
269
258
252
244
238
Qig
224
200
.'; 162
1893...
318
263
265
254
' 246
234
219
225
22T
188
' 166
1894...
304
248
245
236 i 232;
227
227
219
212
191
'..- 156
1895...
298
248
235
232
234'
218
220
208
193
176
- 141
1896...
268
230
. 218
211
213
206
197
195
174
165
; 124
1897..
268
231
217
214
; 2io;:
208
195
201
187
176
* 134
1898...
. 249
;210
210
196
196;
195
187
; 185
187
157
".! 138
1899...
250
217
199
195
185
188
188
\ 174
172
154
> 133
1900...
256
214
19,7
191
' 192.
185
191
->- 178
17J3
155
, 137
31
If the figures just given be looked into it will be seen that there have been
very striking changes in the rates for the period, and a persistent and
astonishing decline amongst women of every class. Reading the figures with
those .relating to first births it would seem that an increasingly large number
of women make up their minds on marrying not to have children, or to
delay child-bearing as long as possible. After each successive confinement an
increasing proportion of women still of child-bearing age cease to give birth
to any more children, and the extraordinary condition of affairs has now
come to pass that the fertility of women who have had two children is less
than that of women in 1891 who had given birth to nine children.
The fall in the proportion of births during the ten years has been greatest
in the group of women who have had one child only, and, generally speaking,
the ratio of reduction lessens as the number of previous issue increases.
Dividing the decade into two periods it will be seen that the fall for nearly
every group was much greater up to 1896 than since that year, and this may
be taken to indicate that the decline in the proportion of births in some of
the groups has been checked; nevertheless, there is not yet any indication of
a return to the higher ratios of previous years. When, however, the remark-
able fact is taken into consideration that the average period elapsing between
the births of each of the last five children is no greater than that from marriage
to the birth of the first child, it will be evident that, though the majority of
women now become infertile at an early age, or refuse to bear any more
children, there is still a large section of the community to whom the practice
of prevention is unknown, and who accept child-bearing as a condition of
married life from which they do not take means to escape. In thus resigning
themselves to the bearing of large families, there are some who are influenced
by the force of religious scruples, and these comprise a large proportion of the
child-bearing class ; there are others to whom children come as an acceptable
burthen—they believe in the scriptural counsel, " Happy is the man who
hath his quiver full "; but it is to be feared that by no means the smallest
class comprises those who, unfit for the responsibilities of a large family, are
as fertile as they are unfit.
It would have been interesting to pursue the inquiry further, in order to
discover whether the birth-rate has declined more in one class of the popula-
tion than in another, but the information available does not admit of this
being done with that satisfying accuracy that statistics can alone supply.
The following table shows (a) the births per thousand women who have
had previous issue of the number stated in the first -column, (6) the age at
which such women bear their children, (c) the average number of issue per
thousand newly married women, and (d) the average per thousand of all
women. The last includes the other two classes, as well as other women of
the age stated, who have either less or more issue than indicated in the first
column. The interest of the table lies in a comparison of the ratios for
women with the specified issue, and for newly married women. It will be
seen that the newly married have a greater probability of issue than women of
the same age who have borne not more than four children ; for women with a
greater number of children than four, newly married women of like age have
less probability of issue, and the probabilities in favour of the women of
proved fertility greatly increase in accordance with the increase in the
number of their children, until at age 37'9 years, a woman with seven
children has twice the probability of giving birth to a child than has a newly
married woman of like age ; and at age 41•3 years the probability of a woman
with nine children becoming a mother is more than seven time that of a
32
newly married woman of equal age. The question of the comparative fertility
of the newly married and other women is returned to in the next chapter,
wherein the effect of marriage postponement on fertility is further discussed.
Average Age
of Mother.
Births per 1,000 Women.
Previous Issue.
With Issue as
stated.
Newly Married
of age stated.
All Women of
age stated.
1
25-6
28-0
30-2
32•2
33-9
35-9
37'9
39'6
41-3
44•3
285
239
231
224
221
213
208
204
197
176
350
286
255
238
190
127
100
68
26
0
277
259
240
221
205
184 .
147
137
109
50
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
33
Effects of Postponement of Marriage on
fertility.
WOMEN who have demonstrated their fecundity by having given birth to
a child are, as regards fertility, in a different category to married women
without issue. Amongst the latter there are many women who have been
married for lengthened periods without having given birth to a child, and in
regard to whom absolute barrenness may be assumed. To ascertain what
effect postponement of marriage has on the child-bearing capacity, women of
proved barrenness should be excluded from comparison, which should be
restricted to the probability of a child being born to a married woman within
the year following her marriage, and the probability of further issue to the
women of equal ages, who already have been mothers.
If the newly married women be arranged according to their ages, and their
numbers be compared with the first births within a given period after
marriage, what is termed the initial fertility of a married women may be
ascertained. This, for the women marrying during the ten years, 1891-1900,
was as shown in the following statement; two rates are given, viz.—the
expectation (a) within a year, and (b) within two years of marriage, births of
ante-nuptial conception being of course excluded :—
Probability of a Birth.
Probability of a Birth.
Age at
Marriage.
Age at
Marriage.
Within a year
of Marriage
per 1,000 wives.
Within 2 years
of Marriage
per 1,000 wives.
Within a year
of Marriage
per 1,000 wives
Within 2 years
of Marriage
per 1,000 wives.
17
397
724
32
242
383
IS
398
730
33
220
366
]9
397
733
34
187
331
20
397
731
35
144
287
21
396
694
36
125
261
22
394
615
37
111
236
23
386
571
38
99
209
• 24
376
556
39
82
161
25
362
548
40
58
114
26
342
541
41
32
74
27
320
525
42
12
45
28
286
488
43
31
29
265
454
44
19
30
256
419
45
14
31
250
396
It will be seen that the summit of initial fertility is at the beginning of
the child-bearing period, and extends without any diminution to the twenty-
second or twenty-third year of age; then it rapidly falls away, so that before
age 30 is reached, the fertility has declined by one-third, and at age 34, by
considerably more than one-half. Comparing the fertility of the newly
married with that of women who have borne children, it will be found that,
as between women of the same age, there is an absolute superiority of the
newly married at the earlier age, and this continues until age 28 is reached,
when the probabilities are reversed; and at age 38, the probability of a
newly married woman having a child within the ensuing twelve months is
less than half that of a woman with previous issue, and at age 41 years, it is
only one-fourth. It would thus appear that the reproductive system, if
unused, is apt to become inoperative, as it cannot be supposed that prevention
is practised more amongst women newly married than amongst those who
have already had experience of the troubles of maternity.
When a woman has proved fecund, her fertility continues with little
impairment until her thirtieth year, and possibly even beyond that age;
thence it declines very gradually ; whereas amongst the newly married there
is a very rapid decline in fertility after age 30 has been passed. The
probability of a newly married woman having a child is extinguished about
her forty-third year, at which age there will still be born one child to every ten
women with previous issue. In the following statement the figures for newly
married women are repeated and set side by side with the figures representing
the probability of a birth to women who have already been mothers.
The following shows the probable number of births within a year amongst
every 1,000 women of each class :—
Newly -married
Women.
Women with
Previous Issue.
Newly-married
Women.
Women with
Previous Issue.
Age.
Age;
21
396
281
34
187
238
22
394
281
35
144
234
23
386
270
36
125
228
24
376
272
37
111
217
25
362
290
38
99
207
26
342
299
39
82
189
27
320
298
40
58
155
28
286
292
41
32
134
29
265
286
42
12
115
30
256
274
43
94
31
250
263
44
66
32
242
253
45
35
33
220
244
35
Number of Children to JVIarriages lasting througl]
the whole period of Child-bearing.
IT has been usual amongst statisticians to estimate the average number of
children born to a marriage by an empirical formula based on the results of
the Swedish observations. To arrive at such average, the number of legiti-
mate births in a given year is divided by the number of marriages contracted
in a twelvemonth six years previously, the interval between the mean age of
marriage and the mean age of mothers corresponding to that period. This
rule cannot be applied to New South Wales or to Australia generally, where
the marriage rate has been declining for a considerable period; there'is, how-
ever, no necessity to have recourse to any formula, as the number of children
to a marriage can be directly ascertained from the registration of the deaths
of married people, the issue of every person who dies being enumerated in the
record of his or her death; it can also be ascertained indirectly from the regis-
tration of births, and over and above this, at the Census of 1901, the number
of children to each married woman then living in the State was ascertained.
The information available, therefore, is ample to determine all the necessary
facts bearing upon the investigation.
From what has already been written, it will have been gathered that the
fertility of married women has greatly declined, and it is important to
determine how far this decline has affected the number of children born to a
marriage. There is no difficulty in establishing, direct from the statistics,
the number of children born to the earlier marriages, but, in regard to recent
marriages, the number cannot be determined without having recourse to
calculation, for though the number of children born up to the present time is
known, there are many marriages whose tally of children is not complete, and
it is necessary to allow for the unfulfilled or probable future fertility of
such marriages. This can ba done readily by using the figures given in an
earlier chapter.
The probability of a birth to a married woman of a given age has already
been calculated; this, with an allowance for initial fertility, and for births
due to ante-nuptial conception, an important consideration in earlier years,
enables the following estimate to be made. It will be understood that the
calculation assumes that the marriage in every case remains unbroken
through the whole period of child-bearing, which, in this instance, has been
taken as up to fifty years. The following figures relate to marriages
contracted during the ten years 1891-1900 :—
Age at
Marriage.
Average Issue.
Age at
Marriage.
Average Issue.
Age at
Marriage.
Average Issue.
20
5-395 i
31
2-287
42
•311
21
5-085 !
32
2-054
43
•215
22
4-776
33
1-831
44
•140
23
4-470
34
1-617
45
•085
24
4-168
35
1-413
46
•047
25
3-874
36
1-218
47
•024
26
3-588
37
1-035
48
•Oil
27
3-309
38
•863
49
•005
28
3-040
39
•704
50
•002
29
2-780
40
•558 ;
30
2-530
41
•426
36
The actual ascertained issue of earlier marriages was as shown in the
statement given hereunder. In connection with this statement it should be
remembered that all marriages contracted prior to 1875 are completed so far
as concerns the expectation of issue, inasmuch as all the women who were
parties to them have lived through the child-bearing period. Such is also
the case for all other wives except those who married since 1881, and whose
age at marriage was less than 25 years, and for wives under 30 years who
married since 1886. The unfulfilled expectation for such wives has been
calculated, and the adjusted expectation inserted in the table, otherwise the
figures are the actual results of direct observation. It is believed that the
calculated figures fairly represent the probabilities of the case ; but, however
that may be, their absolute accuracy is not necessary to sustain any of the
conclusions arrived at.
AVERAGE issue of women marrying at stated age and living through period
of child-bearing.
Period of Marriage.
Marriage Age Groups.
15 and
under 20.
20 and
under 25.
25 and
under 30.
30 and
under 35.
35 and
under 40.
40 and
under 45.
1851-55
1856-60
1861-65
1866-70
1871-75
1876-80
1881-85
1886-90
9-918
9-926
9-779
9-371
8-679
8-440
8-318
8-097
7-521
7-022
6-821
6-437
6-407
6-451
5-888
5-392
4-972
'4-615
5-107
4-636
4-379
4-149
3-923
3-396
3-026
3-500
2-143
2-915
2-235
2-534
2-095
1-797
1-717
3-000
1-500
1-350
1-235
•940'
•852
•603
•547
8-867
The first point to be observed in connection with the foregoing table is the
very large average issue shown for early marriages. Some incredulity was
displayed when similar figures were given by the author in a paper read
before the Royal Statistical Society ; and in order to meet any similar
objections, it has been thought well to give the actual statistics showing
these rates. The following information was obtained at the Census of 1901.
The figures represent all the women 45 years and over then living who were
married between the years 1850 and 1870.
Number of
Married Women.
Number of
Children.
Average per
Married Woman.
Marriage Age Groups.
15 and under 20
20 ,, 25
25 „ 30
30 „ 35
7,889
10,021
3,239
76,264
83,026
20,943
3,826
9-667
8-285
6-466
4-566
838
There can be no question but that the women who came to Australia
between 1850 and 1870, and who form a large proportion of the older
married women now living, were of a type likely to be prolific in children,
and the evidence of the fruitfulness is seen in the foregoing table. Nor
was the Australian-born woman of the same period any less fruitful, as will
presently appear.
The second point in regard to the table of average issue is the great de-
crease in the number of children born to recent marriages as compared with
37
former marriages. It is convenient in considering this matter to group the
information available under three periods, viz., for years prior to 1870, which
may be termed the earlier period ; for the years between 1870 and 1880; and
for the years 1891 to 1900, which may be conveniently termed the recent
period. The average issue to women marrying in each of the periods is given
below, but it should be understood that for the middle period the experience
of the marriages at the earliest age groups has had to be completed in respect
of some women, whose period of child-bearing had not been completed at the
close of the year 1900, ample material for the completion of such experience
being available.
Period of Marriage.
Marriage Age Groups.
15 and
under 20.
20 and
under 25.
25 and
under 30.
30 and
under 35.
35 and
under 40.
40 and
under 45.
Prior to 1870
9-667
8-606
8-285
7-232
4-776
6-466
5-610
3-309
4-566
4-020
2-054
2'474
2-265
1-035
1-385
•882
•311
1871-1880
1891-1900
There appears from the table just given to have been a decline in the
average number of children to a marriage from period to period, marriages of
recent years showing the least number of children. The decline from the
first to the second period is not large, and is explainable on the well-known
fact that the women who came to Australia in the gold-digging days and in
the two following decades were, as a class, above the ordinary fertility of the
time, and there is no reason to suppose that in the second period any general
effort was made to limit the number of children born. The practice alluded to
came into vogue between 1881 and 1890, and its full effect is now being felt
on the birth-rate of the State. Comparing the marriages of the period
1871-1880, with those of 1891-1900, there has been a decline in each age
group as follows :—
Age Group. Decline in Number of Children.
Years. Per cent.
20 and under 25 34
25 „ 30 41
30 ,, 35 49
35 „ 40 54
40 „ 45 62
It would thus appear that the effects of prevention are visible amongst
women marrying at all ages, but are increasingly evident as the age at
marriage advances.
38
Average Dumber of Children to all Marriages.
THE foregoing pages show that the age of a woman at marriage is the chief
factor in determining the number of her children, the younger the age the more
numerous the offspring, and this rule appears to hold even when a woman
marries at an immature age. The number of children borne by women
marrying at various ages is set out in the tables of the preceding chapter on
the supposition that the marriage of every woman lasts through the full
period of her child-bearing. A large number of women do not, of course,
have this experience; their marriage is broken by their own death or the
death of their husbands. The average number of children likely to be born
to women marrying at any given age, allowing for those who die or become
widows before completing the full period of child-bearing, can be ascertained
by direct observation or by calculation from the average of fertility at each
age, using a joint life table to determine the number of marriages that will
be broken by death during each year of life time after marriage. Such a
life table was computed for New South Wales from materials obtained at
the Census of 1891, and as little change has since taken place, this table has
been employed for the purpose of estimating the number of children to
present day marriages. .The following are the results : the calculations
themselves present no features of special interest, and therefore need not be
reproduced in these pages :—
MAR.RIAGES of 1891-1900. All Women.
Age at
Marriage.
Average Number
of Children.
Age at
Marriage.
Average Number
of Children.
Age at
Marriage.
Average Number
of Children.
20
4-996
30
2-395
40
•523
21
4-719
31
2-176
41
•390
22
4-444
32
1-966
42
-275
23
4•171
33
1-761
43
•182
24
3-896
34
1-564
44
•113
25
3-624
35
1-373
45
•060
26
3-360
36
1-193
46
•033
27
3-105
37
1-013
47
•007
28
2-857
38
•844
48
•003
29
2-620
39
•674
49
•001
That there has been a great decline in fertility during recent years has
been made abundantly manifest in the foregoing pages; an actual measure
of this decline can now be given by setting against the figures in the
preceding table the average issue of women marrying at earlier periods.
The average number of children born to women who married between the
years 1871 and 1880 is shown for each age at marriage in the following
table; the figures have been arrived at by using the table for joint lives
employed for calculating the issue of recent marriages, the annual birth rate
to women of different ages being that shown in the chapter dealing with the
39
birth rate according to age of mother. An allowance has been made in this
as in the table dealing with recent marriages for the initial fertility at each
age and for ante-nuptial conception.
MARRIAGES of 1871-1880. All Women.
Age at
Marriage.
Average Number
of Children.
Age at
Marriage.
Average Number
of Children.
Age at
Marriage.
Average Number
of Children.
20
7'051
30
3-882
40
•979
21
6-727
31
3-581
41
•763
22
6-409
32
3-286
42
•588
23
6-089
33
2-984
43
•445
24
5•762
34
2-691
44
•330
25
5-437
35
2-393
45
•233
26
5-116
36
2-105
46
•159
27
4-802
37
1-810
47
•100
fc8
4-489
38
1-526
48
•050
29
4-184
39
1-233
49
•010
By comparing the two tables (1871-1880 and 1891-1900), it will be seen
that whereas in the former period there was an even chance of a child being
born to a woman marrying at 42 years of age, this is now reduced to women
marrying at age 40. Women whose marriage is postponed until they are in
their thirty-second year cannot now expect more than two children, and
those who marry after age 27 not more than three. According to the earlier
experience women marrying at age 36 might expect two children, and at age
33 three children. The full extent of the decline may be gathered from the
following summary:—
Children to a Marriage.
Age at Marriage.
Marriages of 1871-80.
Marriages of 1891-1900.
20 an
25
30
35
40
id tinder 25 ,
6•409
4-802
3-286
1-810
•588
4-444
3-105
1-966
1-013
„ 30
35
„ 40
,, 45
•275
All Ages
5-384
3-636
Applying the figures herein obtained to the women marrying at these
different periods, it is found that the issue to marriages of 1871-80 was
5,384 to every 1,000 marriages, whereas under present conditions the
number of issue would be 3,636. This denotes a decrease of 32-5 per cent,
in the fertility of marriages, and a like reduction in the birth rate. The
elements of the decline may be resolved into (a) postponement of marriage
on the part of women (ft) reduction in fecundity and the comparative
increase of childless marriages (c) the earlier cessation of fertility, and (d)
the decline in the fertility of fecund marriages. Of the 1,748 less children
now being born than to earlier marriages, the loss of 301 may be attributed
to postponement of marriage; 236 to the decline in fecundity, and 1,211 to the
cessation of fertility at an earlier period than formerly, and to a generally
decreased fertility at every age.
40
fertility in relation to Birthplace and Religious
Belief.
THE question of the fertility of women of different nationalities is one of
much importance, but in New South Wales, as already explained, the great
majority of women are of British birth or parentage, the women of other
races being too few to admit of any accurate idea of their fertility being
obtained.
Two sets of figures are available to illustrate fertility in relation to birth-
place. The first of these comprises information as to the issue of all women
living in the state at the date of the Census of 1901, and the second, the
annual birth-rate amongst women of different nationalities during the same
year. The first includes both women of earlier and women of more recent
marriage, and in view of the great fall in the birth-rate it is desirable to
eliminate women of recent marriage, and thus reduce the information so as to
illustrate the experience of marriages contracted prior to the year 1880. This
can best be done by including only women who have lived through the whole
period of child-bearing, and this course has been followed in the accompanying
table, which represents in effect, for marriages contracted prior to 1881, the
average number of children born to women marrying at the ages specified,
and born in the countries named :—
Age of Women at Marriage.
Other
Australian
States.
Birth-place of Married Women.
New South
Wales.
England
and Wales.
Scotland.
Ireland.
Other
Countries.
20 and under 25
8-23
6-10
4•09
2-04
0-60
7-45
5-30
3-19
T72
0-66
7-27
5-32
3•43
1-75
0-52
7'78
5-64
3-84
1-62
0-50
7'66
5-70
3'66
1-70
0-61
7'58
5-66
3-27
25 „ 30
30 ,, 35
35 ,, 40
1-88
0-42
40 „ 45
It will be seen that there is no great range in the number of children to
women of the various nationalities included in the list, any variation disclosed
being due rather to difference in social conditions than to any other cause.
Women of Australian birth show somewhat greater fertility than non-
Australians ; amongst the latter, the Scotch have a slight superiority over
the Irish, and the Irish over the English, at almost every age. It must be
remembered that these figures denote a past experience, somewhat higher
perhaps than that of 1871—1880, and corresponding fairly closely with that of
all marriages contracted prior to 1880. They may be taken as illustrating the
natural fertility of women of the races named, unimpaired by resort to any
form of artificial restriction.
The present fertility of these women is a very different matter. It may
be ascertained by a comparison of the number of women of each nationality
now living with the births occurring amongst them during the last few years.
The annual rates thus derived are as follow :—
Age.
Present Annual Birth-rate to Wives born in-
New South
Wales.
Other Austral-
asian States.
England.
Scotland.
Ireland.
18 and under 20
•501
•391
•308
•242
•203
•096
•438
•380
•297
•231
•175
•079
•522
•424
•280
•226
•192
•089
•480
•403
•322
•274
•224
•090
•596
•571
•472
•341
•215
•066
20 25
25 30
30 35
35 40
40 45
These rates include births of ante-nuptial conception, and for the younger
ages are somewhat in excess of the truth, bat as ante-nuptial intercourse is
not confined to any particular class, it may be assumed that the rates are all
much upon the same basis. In order to compare the effect of the existing
rates on the constitution of families, it will be necessary to calculate the
average number of children to women marrying at each age and for women
of each birthplace. This has been done, and is shown in the following table,
the age groups being the same as those just given.
Number of children to a Marriage at specified age
to Women born in—
Age at Marriage.
New South
Wales.
England.
Scotland.
Ireland.
20 and
4-820
4-565
5-103
6-398
25
30 '..
3-266
3-027
3-514
4-116
30
,, 35
2-062
1-922
2-205
2-236
35
40
1-068
•978
1-069
•924
40
•293
•272
•254
•173
The women of Irish birth show no great diminution of fertility now as com-
pared with former years ; amongst all other classes of women there has been a
considerable decline. As late as 1880, Irish women did not show a rate of
fertility in excess of the rest of the community, but now, except as the end of
the child-bearing period approaches, their fertility shows conspicuously above
the average of all other women. As the decline in number of children born
may in a large degree be attributed to the use of preventive measures, Irish
women must, as a class, be acquitted of this practice. Whether their exemp-
tion from this prevalent custom is the result of religious scruples or racial
tradition need not be here determined, but some light will be thrown on the
subject when the question of fertility in relation to religious belief is discussed.
It is clear that failure to bear children is not specially characteristic of
Australian-born women, it is a habit shared by them with women of English
origin, and in a less degree with women born in Scotland. It is a curious circum-
stance that though Irish women are much more prolific than other women,
their daughters of Australian birth are not distinguished in this respect from
other Australian women, otherwise the rates for these latter women would
stand higher than they do, inasmuch as women of Irish parentage form nearly
30 per cent, of the Australians born.
The question of religion as affecting fertility can be determined in much
the same way as that in regard to nationality. Taking the women at the census
of 1901 who had passed through the child-bearing stage, no great differences
are discoverable between one class and another. Roman Catholic wives show
the largest number of children for almost all ages, then the Methodists and
the Presbyterians, with the Church of England lowest of the Christian
denominations. Jewish women show less fertility than the women of any
other class. As the great majority of the births on which the averages are
founded occurred before any general system of prevention seems to have been
fashionable, it must be concluded that the differences in the rates disclosed
by the following table are due to social habits rather than to differences in
inherent fertility.
Age of Women at Marriage.
Church of
England.
Roman
Catholic.
Methodist.
Presby-
terian.
Jews.
Other
Religions.
Under 20 years
9'54
9•66
9-62
9'43
8 '38
Q'lft
20 and under 25
7 -69
S'll
7 -83
7. 80
7 '50
7•1Q
25 „ 30
5-56
5•99
5 '83
5•79
4. •71
5 -d.fi
30 „ 35
3-60
3 -77
4•10
3 '86
3•53
3>rtt
35 ,, 40
1-84
T9I
1*96
1•73
1'09
1 'fil
40 ,, 45
0'57
0'62
0•49
0'49
0'50
f».fCl
The condition of fertility shown in this statement does not of course, any
longer exist, and it is unfortunately impossible to give similar information for
present day marriages, as the religion of the parents is not ascertained when
the birth of a child is registered. There is, however, strong indirect evidence
which shows the fertility of women of different religions at the present time
compared with one another, and indirectly compared with past years. If the
average birth-rate to a certain number of mothers within the child-bearing
age be taken as 100, the rates for women of the religious beliefs most
numerously represented, and for which there is information, are as follow: -.
Roman Catholic 113
Church of England 101
Methodist 100
Presbyterian 95
Baptist 87
Congregationalist 86
Jewish 71
Eoman Catholic women show a much greater degree of fertility than women
of any other religion, but it is evident that this superiority is due mainly to
the number of women of Irish birth represented in the Eoman Catholic
population. If the present rates for women of different birth-places be reduced
to the same common standard as those just given for religions, the-folio wing
proportions are obtained :—
Women born in Ireland 135
„ „ Scotland ... 107
,, New South Wales.. 101
,, ,, England 97
,, ,, 0 ther Australian States 94
It will be thus seen that the average for women born in Ireland is 135,
compared with 113 for all Eoman Catholic women. About 24 per cent, of
the Eoman Catholic married women under 45 years of age are of Irish birth,
and the measure of fertility of the two classes of Eoman Catholic women is
therefore:—
Roman Catholic women—Irish birth 135
„ „ Other birth, including Australians... 106
» „' All birth-places 113
43
Bath classes show superior fertility to women of other religions, but, whereas
Roman Catholic women of Irish birth show an almost undiminished fertility
compared with women married prior to 1880, those of other birth show a very
great decline. It must be concluded, therefore, that, speaking generally, the
effect of religion as a deterrent to the practice of prevention is not particularly
obvious.
Allusion has been made to the fact that women are usually more fecund
with husbands of fcheir own race than with other husbands ; it will now be
seen that they are, as a rule, more fertile also. To make a fair comparison
between women of different classes it is necessary to group them according to
a standard population, and the following figures, therefore, have been so
arranged, the distribution of married women according to their ages at the census
of 1901 being taken as the standard. If the fertility of women married to
husbands of the same birth-country as themselves be taken as equal to 100,
then their fertility with husbands of different origin would be as shown in the
following statement:—
New South Wales 89
Other Australian States 93
England 99
Scotland 92
Ireland 92
Germany 96
In considering these figures, it should be remembered that they have no
value relative to one another, they simply indicate that for every hundred
children born to women of the birth-places specified, who have husbands of
the same birth-place, there will be born the number indicated when the
husband's birth-place differs from that of his wife. Thus, comparing women
born in New South Wales and women born in Ireland, the average number
of children to women marrying at age 22 would, in the first case, be 4-82 when
the husband is also born in ISTew South Wales, but 4-29 if he were not born
in that state ; similarly, a woman born in Ireland, and married at 22 years,
may now be expected to bear 640 children, but with a husband of other
nationality the average issue would be 5-89.
The same phenomenon is observable in regard to the marriage of women
of different religions. The following is the proportionate fertility of women
marrying husbands of other than their own religion, on the assumption that
their fertility with husbands of their own religion is represented by 100 :—
Church of England 87
Roman Catholic 89
Presbyterian 87
Methodist 91
Baptist 95
Congregational 91
Jewish 63
The extremely low fertility of Jewish women with husbands not of their
own faith is remarkable, but the probable correctness of the figure is
supported by the experience of other countries. It is difficult to account for
the diminution in fertility of mixed marriages on purely physical grounds;
possibly an explanation of the peculiarity may be found in the assumption
that the contractors of such unions speedily exhaust the passion that brought
them together as man and wife, and that the bond of religious sympathy,
which might otherwise have taken its place, is entirely lacking.
As illustrating the reduced fertility of mixed marriages, the following
table is given ; it shows the average number of children that will be born to
present marriages of women 24 years of age—first, where the husband is of
the same religion as the wife ; and secondly, where he is of a different faith :—
Children— Wife and
Husband of same
religion.
Eeligion of Wife.
Mixed Marriages.
"Roman Catholic
4-57
3'98
Church of England
4•02
3 58
Methodist
3-90
3•55
Presbyterian
3'8l
3 '31
Baptist
3•43
3•26
Congregationalist ,
3-42
3•11
Jewish
2•81
1.77
families of Various Sizes.
IT must not be supposed that the decline in fertility means that there are
no longer large families. Observations have been made of the previous issue
of every woman who gave birth to a child since 1893, and it would appear
that the 281,375 children born in the eight years were thus distributed :—
] st chile
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
Iren 56,649
9th chil
10th
llth
12th
13th
14th
dren 9,804
17th chil
18th
19th
20th
21st
22nd
23rd
dren 70
. 46,450
.. 6,830
22
39,269
4,417
15
32,569
2,534
3
27,054
1,362
0
6th
7th
8th
21,964
685
2
17 606
15th
16th
342
1
13,597
130
Of course, the same women appear again and again in the list as the
mothers of first, second, third, &c., children, and the table has value only as
showing that large families are still being produced. The figures must not
be used as indicating the proportions of each description of family; this is
information that can be obtained only from a census or the record of the
deaths of married women.
At the Census of 1901 it was ascertained that in every 1,000 married
women whose husbands were then living, the proportions with families of
the numbers indicated were as shown in the following statement. The
numbers include the dead as well as the living issue:—
Number of Women
Number of Women
per 1,000, with
families of size
per 1,000, with
families of size
Number of Children.
Number of Children.
indicated.
indicated.
0
132
9
43
1
131
10
37
2
123
11
25
3
109
12
18
4
94
13
10
5
82
14
6
6
71
15
3
7
61
16 and over
2
8
53
The foregoing table does not include the families of women whose husbands
are dead, while it does include the women whose period of child-bearing is
incomplete. The latter class forms a large proportion of the whole, and
tends to increase unduly the proportion of families of four and under, and
correspondingly decrease the proportion of families of five children and
upwards.
The records relating to the 22,115 married women who died in the eight
years that ended with 1900 afford much better information. Apart from
the fact that the days of these people had been counted out, their number
includes widows whose life experience is necessary to complete the table of
families. A classification of these persons according to the number of children
born is as follows :—
Number of
Deaths of Mar-
ried Women —
Issue as stated.
Number of
Deaths of Mar-
uied Women —
Issue as stated.
Number of
. Children.
Proportion per
1,000 of Mothers
of each class.
Number of
Children.
Proportion per
1,000 of Mothers
of each class.
0
2,600
118
9
1,399
63
1
1,989
90
10
1,199
54
2
1,853
84
11
856
39
3
1,760
80
12
624
28
4
1,881
85
13
352
16
5
1,891
85
14
178
S
6
1,846
S3
15
79
4
7
1,797
81
16
53
2
8
1,717
78
Over 16
41
2
The largest family that has, so far, come under observation in New South
Wales is that of a man whose children numbered 29. The woman who had
the largest family had given birth to 23 children; this large number did not
include any plural births.
The families of married men who died during the same period have been
tabulated, and show a slightly greater average than for women. This will
be readily understood when it is remembered that, owing to the larger
proportion of re-marriages amongst widowers than widows, there are more
women who become mothers than men who are fathers. The difference,
however, is too small to call for any special remark.
Joint /ges of Parents as Affecting Birth-rates.
Bigenous fatality.
IT needs no argument to prove that possible fertility is a very different
thing to fertility displayed by marriage. The bearing of children not only
requires fecundity on the part of both husband and wife, but the will to bear.
The probability of issue during a year to a given number of couples of various
ages when arranged in a regular form is called a table of bigenous natality.
Such a table has been compared to a joint-life table; between the two there
is, however, but a surface resemblance. A. joint-life table treats of the
happening of something which both parties are desirous should happen,
viz. :—the living through a given period, and over which neither party has
control. A table of bigenous natality depends on the probability of the
parties living through the period to which the table refers, on their respective
fertility, and on the exercise of their powers of reproduction—that is to say,
on two circumstances governed by strict laws,, and another set of circum-
stances controlled by the parties themselves, and therefore of a voluntary
character. Nevertheless, it is not impossible to imagine that what appear to
be purely voluntary actions may be exercised according to calculable rules.
Many cases seem to conform to this supposition. Amongst those of common
occurrence it may be pointed out that although persons who in any are,
ordinarily speaking, not subject to any compulsion, but perform an action
essentially voluntary, yet the marriage rates of the community are extremely
regular and easily predicted from year to year. The number of persons who
will be arrested for drunkenness in any year can be predicted with some
certainty, yet there are many causes which must be in operation before an
arrest is possible. So also with many other events in which voluntariness
apparently forms an important part. So little variation do the averages
show that even where there is an increase or decrease in the annual propor-
tions, it is so gradual as to admit of being easily forecast. With almost as
much certainty as an individual knows the number of loaves his family will
require from the baker, does the statistician know the number of crimes to
be committed during the year, the number of unfortunates who will commit
suicide, the number of fires that will occur, the number of persons who will
be carried from the streets to the hospital, and from the hospital to their last
rest. From the experience of the years that have been counted out can be
told what will happen in the years that are to come. Men themselves do not
change. The desires and appetites which move them to-day are the same
that swayed the race before the pyramids were built, and will remain
unchanged to the end. May it not be true therefore that though the
conception of children is subject to the control of one or both parties, the
actual exercise of that control or its non-exercise is governed by rule.
JOINT AGES OP PARENTS AS AFFECTING
Birth-rate per 100 Couples
AGE OF
A<
3E OF
HUSBAND.
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
22
30-3
30-3
30-2
30-1
30-0
297
29-1
28-1
27-0
26-1
25-1
24-2
23-5
23
30-3
30-2
30-0
29-8
29'7
29-3
28'8
28-0
27-0
26-2
25-4
24-6
23-9
24
30-4
30-1
29•8
29-5
29-4
28-9
28-4
27'8
27-0
26-3
25-6
24-9
24-2
25
30-4
30-0
29-6
29-2
29-1
28-5
28-0
27'5
26-9
26-4
25'8
25-1
24-4
26
30'4
29-9
29'4
29-0
28-8
28-1
27-6
27•2
26-7
26-3
25-9
25-2
24•5
27
30-4
29-8
29-2
28-8
28-5
27-8
27'3
26-9
26-5
26-2
25-8
25-2
24-5
28
30-4
29-7
29-1
28'6
28-2
27-5
27-0
26-6
26-3
260
25-6
25-0
24-4
29
30-5
29-7
29-0
28'4
27'9
27-2
26-7
26'3
26-0
25-7
25-3
24-7
241
30
30-5
29-7
28-9
28-2
27'6
27-0
26-5
26-1
25-7
25-3
24-9
24-3
237
31
30-5
297
28-9
28-2
27-5
26-8
26-3
25-8
25-4
24-9
24-4
23-8
23-3
32
30-5
29-7
28•9
28-2
27-3
26-6
26-1
25-5
25-1
24-5
24-0
23-4
22-9
33
30-5
29-7
28-8
28-1
27'1
26-4
25-9
25-2
24-8
241
23-6
23-0
22-5
34
30-4
29-6
287
27•9
26-9
26-2
25-6
24-9
24-4
23-7
33-2
22-6
22-1
35
30-3
29-5
28-6
27'7
26-7
26-0
25-3
24-6
24-0
23-3
22-8
22-2
21-6
36
30-1
29-3
28-4
27'4
26-4
257
25-0
24-3
23-6
22-9
223
21-7
21-1
37
29-7
28-9
28-0
27-1
26-1
25-4
24-7
24-0
23-2
225
21-8
21-2
20-6
38
29-2
28-4
27-6
267
25-8
25-1
24-4
23-6
22-8
221
21-4
20-8
20-2
39
28-5
27-8
27-0
26-2
25-4
24-7
24-0
23-2
22-4
21-7
21-0
20-4
19-8
40
27-7
27'0
26-3
25-6
24'9
24-2
23-5
22-8
22-0
21'4
20-7
20-1
19-5
41
26-8
26-2
25-5
24-9
24-2
23-6
23-0
22 '4
21-6
21-0
20-4
19-8
19-2
42
25-8
25-3
24-7
24-2
23-6
23'1
22-5
220
21-3
20-7
20-1
19-5
18'9
43
24-9
24-5
23-9
23-5
23-0
22-6
221
21-6
21-0
20-4
19-8
192
18-6
44
24-1
23-7
23'2
22•9
22-5
22-2
21-7
21-3
20-7
20-2
196
19-0
18-4
45
23-5
23'2
22-8
22-6
22-2
21-9
21-4
21-0
20-5
20-0
19-4
18-8
18-2
46
22-9
22-7
22-4
22-3
21-9
21-6
21-1
20-7
20-3
19-8
19-2
18-6
18-0
47
22-4
22-3
22-1
22-0
21-7
21-4
20-9
20-5
20-1
19-6
19-0
18-4
17-9
48
21-9
21-9
21-8
21-7
21-5
21-3
20-8
20-4
20-0
19-5
18-9
18-3
17-8
49
21-5
21-5
2L-5
2T4
21-3
21-1
20-7
20-3
19-9
19-4
18-9
18-3
17-8
50
21-2
21-2
212
21-2
21-1
20-9
20-6
20-2
19-8
19-3
18-8
18-3
17'8
51
20-9
21-0
21-0
21-0
21-0
20'8
20-5
20-2
19'8
19-3
18-8
18-3
17'8
52
20-6
20-8
20-8
20-8
20-8
207
20-4
20-1
197
19-2
18-7
18-2
17•7
53
20-4
20-6
20-7
20-7
20-7
20-6
20-3
20-0
19-7
19-2
18-7
18-2
177
54
20'3
20'4
20-5
20-5
20-5
20-4
20-2
19'9
19-6
19-1
18-6
18-1
17-6
55
202
20-3
20-4
20-4
20-4
20-3
20-1
19-8
19-5
19-1
18-6
18-1
17-6
56
20-1
20-2
20-3
20-3
20-3
202
20-0
19-7
19-4
19-0
18-5
18-0
17'5
57
20-0
20-0
20-1
20-1
20-1
20'0
19-9
19-6
19-3
18 9
184
17-9
17'3
58
19-9
19-9
20-0
20-0
20-0
19-9
19-8
19'5
19-2
18-8
18-3
17-8
17'1
59
19-8
19-8
19-9
19-9
19-9
19-8
19-7
19-4
19-1
18-7
18-2
17-6
16-9
60
197
197
19-8
19'S
19-8
19-7
19-6
19-3
19-0
18-6
18-1
17-4
16-6
61
18'0
17-1
16-1
62
17•8
16'8
15'6
BIRTH-RATES—BIGENOUS NATALITY.
of the Joint Ages Stated.
WIFE.
- AGE OF
HUSBAND.
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
22-8
22-2
21-2
19-8
17'8
15-3
12-1
7'9
22
(Jfi
23-1
22-5
21-5
20-1
18-1
15-6
12-5
8-4
23
23•3
22-7
21-7
20-3
18-3
15-8
]2-S
8-9
24
ffX
23'5
22-9
21-9
20-4
18-3
15-8
13-0
9-4
25
4i/
23-6
22-9
21-9
20-3
18-3
15-8
13'1
9-8
2fi
(i\J
23-6
22-8
21-8
20 '2
18-2
15-8
13-2
10-2
8-2
6-4
47
2-9
1-1
27
23-5
227
21-7
20-1
18-1
157
13-2
10-5
8'4
6'6
4-8
3-0
1-1
28
23-3
22-5
21-5
19-9
17-9
15-5
13-1
107
8-6
67
4-9
3-0
1-1
29
23-0
22-2
21-2
19-6
17-6
15-3
13-0
10-8
87
6-8
5-0
3-1
1-2
30
22-6
21-9
20-9
19-3
17-3
15-1
12-9
107
8-6
6-8
5-0
3-1
1-2
31
22-2
21-6
20-6
19'1
17-1
15-0
12-8
107
8-6
6-8
5'0
3-1
1-3
32
21-8
21-2
20-2
18-8
16-8
14-8
12-7
10-6
8-5
6-8
5-0
3-1
1-3
33
21-3
207
19-7
18-4
16-4
14-5
12-4
10-4
8'3
6'6
4-9
3-0
1-3
34
20'8
20-2
19'2
18-0
16-0
14-2
12-2
10-3
8-2
6-5
4-8
3-0
1-3
35
20-4
19-8
18-8
17-6
15-7
13'9
12-0
10-1
8-1
G-4
47
3-0
1-3
36
20'0
19-4
18-4
17-2
15-4
136
11-8
9-9
8-0
6-3
46
3-0
1-3
37
19-6
19-0
18-0
16-8
15-1
13-3
11-6
97
7'9
6-2
4-6
3-0
1-4
38
19-2
18'6
17-6
16-4
14-8
13-0
11-4
96
7'8
6-2
4-6
30
1-4
39
18-9
18'3
17-3
16-1
14-6
12-8
11-2
9-5
7'8
6'2
4-6
3-0
1-4
40
18-6
18'0
17-0
15-8
14-4
12-6
11-1
9-4
77
6-1
4-5
3-0
1-4
41
18-3
177
16-7
15-5
14-2
12-4
10-9
9-2
7•5
6-0
4-4
3-0
1-3
42
18-0
17-4
164
15-3
14-0
12-3
107
90
7'3
5-9
43
3-0
1-3
43
17-8
17'2
16-2
15-1
13-8
12-2
10-6
8-9
7'2
5-8
4-2
3-0
1-3
44
17-6
17-0
16-0
149
13-6
12-1
10-5
87
7-0
57
4-1
3-0
1-3
45
17-4
16-8
15-8
147
13-5
12-0
10-4
8-6
6-9
5-6
4-0
2-9
1-3
46
17-3
16-7
157
14-6
13-4
11-9
10-3
8-5
6-8
5-5
4-0
2-8
1-3
47
17-2
]6'6
15 6
14-5
13-3
11-8
10-2
8-4
67
5'4
3-9
2-7
1-2
48
17-2
16-5
15'5
14-4
132
117
10-0
8-2
6'6
5-3
3-8
2-6
1-2
49
17-2
16-5
15•5
14-4
13-2
117
99
8-1
6-5
5-2
3-S
2-5
1-2
50
17'2
16-5
15'4
14-3
131
11 6
9-8
8-0
6'4
5-1
37
2-4
1-2
51
17-2
16'5
15-4
14-2
13-0
11-5
9-6
7-8
6-2
4-9
3-6
2-3
1-1
52
17-2
16-5
15-4
14-1
12-9
11-3
9-4
7'6
6-0
47
35
22
1-1
53
17-1
16-4
15-3
14-0
12-8
11-0
92
7-4
5-8
4-5
3-3
21
1-0
54
17'0
16-3
15-2
13-9
12-6
107
8-9
7-1
5-5
4-3
3-1
2-0
1-0
55
16-8
16-1
15-0
13-6
12-3
10-3
8-5
6-8
5-2
4-1
2-9
19
•9
56
16-6
15-8
14-7
13-2
11-8
9-8
8-0
64
49
3-8
27
18
-8
57
16-4
15'5
14-4
12-S
11-2
9-3
7-5
6-0
4-6
3-6
2-5
17
•8
58
16-1
15-2
14-0
12-3
10-5
87
7'0
5-6
4-3
3-3
23
15
7
59
157
14-7
13-4
11-6
9-8
8-1
6-5
5-2
4-0
3-0
2-1
1-3
•2
60
15'0
13-8
12-3
107
9-0
7'4
5-9
47
3-6
27
1-8
1-1
•6
61
14-3
12-9
11-2
9-8
8-2
67
5-3
42
3-1
2-3
1-5
•9
'5
62
50
Several important investigations of the subject of bigenous natality have
been made, but all seem to have the defect of ignoring ante-nuptial concep-
tions. This is a very material point. In New South Wales during the eight
years 1893-1900, there were on the average annually 11,508 women under
20 years of age married to men aged-from 20 to 25 years. To these were
born within a year 4,700 children, showing an apparent birth rate of 408
per thousand; amongst the women there were, however, 2,185 who were
already pregnant at marriage, and in respect of whom the certainty of having
a child could be stated. The rate for the remainder of these women, viz.,
9,323, is prejudiced by the certainty in regard to the other 2,185, and the
true rate is therefore 4,700 less 2,185, that is to say 2,515 births to 11,508
less 2,185, or 9,323 women not pregnant before marriage. This gives nearly
270 per thousand, a very different ratio to that arrived at when ante-nuptial
conceptions are not considered. In the investigations which follow, births
due to ante-nuptial conception have been excluded, and the rates shown are
the actual net rates.
The information available for estimating the probability of a birth to
couples of given ages comprises the experience of 259,665 births to 1,374,701
couples. For women of ages up to 49 years, and for men up to 64 years, the
statistics are fairly ample, and where the number of couples is small, the
collateral evidence is sufficiently strong to admit of correct conclusions being-
arrived at. In the original investigation, the figures were arranged in
cumulative groups according to quinquennial ages. The rates obtained
therefrom required some slight adjustment before they could be used for
comparative purposes, and the foregoing statement gives the adjusted figures
proceeding in single ages for women from 22 to 47 years with husbands from
22 to 62.
It will be seen that, generally speaking, the maximum rate for mothers
is with fathers of the youngest ages. Where this is not actually the case
there is very slight difference between the maximum and the rate for the
lowest age recorded. > Thus for women of 22 years, the maximum is with
husbands 29 to 33 years, viz., 30-5 per hundred wives, while at age 22 the
rate is 30'3. This slight difference, even if it were not due to adjustment, is
of such small moment that the truth of the general statement is in no wise
impaired. The general law governing natality, therefore, is that the younger
the age of the couple, the greater probability of a birth. To this law there is
an exception. A woman approaching the limit of child-bearing possesses
almost an equal chance of becoming a mother with a husband of or about her
own age as with a younger husband. Thus at age 46 years a woman's chance
of becoming a mother is from 2-2 to 3'1 per hundred wives, whether the
husband's age is 27 or 45 years. When the wife is 47, the birth-rate is 1-1
per hundred with a husband of 27, or with one of 53 years, being a little
higher at some of the intervening ages.
An attempt has been made, on the authority of the Budapest statistics for
1889-91, to deduce the law that there is a constant number from which if
the united ages of the parents be subtracted the difference approximates to
the number per cent, of parents to whom children will be born during one
year ; but the present investigation, covering a more extended period and a
far larger number of couples, shows that this so-called law does not hold, at
least in New South Wales, nor does anything analogous obtain. For such a
law to exist it would be necessary that, in regard to fertility, the age of the
father should be as important as that of the mother, and to obtain equal
birth-rates, as the mother's age advances, an equal reduction should be made
51
in that of the father. Within very small limits only can this be said ttf be
true. The following examples appear to conform to the supposed law.
Age of Wife.
Age of Husband.
Sum of Ages.
Natality
per 100 couples.
22
43
65
25
25
41
66
25
28
36
64
25
31
31
62
25
33
28
61
25
In each instance the natality rate is 25 per hundred couples, and the sum
of the ages does not depart very far from the mean of the series (63-6 years).
If, however, the series be continued for older women whose ages with those
of their husbands come near to the mean (63-6) very different results are
disclosed.
Age of Wife.
Age of Husband.
Sum of Ages.
Natality
per 100 couples.
35
29
64
23-3
38
26
64 .
20-3
41
23
64
12-5
Other ages giving equal sums by the same rule ought to give equal natality
results. In the following cases the joint ages amount to 74, but the
probability of a birth ranges from 1-1 to 21-4 per hundred.
Age of Wife.
Age of Husband.
Natality per 100 couples.
22
52
20'6
25
49
21-4
30
44
20-7
35
39
19-2
40
34
14-5
45
29
4-9
47
27
1-1
1
This so-called law was tentatively promulgated by Korosi in the Philo-
sophical Transactions of the Royal Society, and illustrated by Mr. F. Galtoii
in his communication to the Proceedings of the Royal Society, Vol. L V. The
figures just given do not afford any countenance to it, and it must be
concluded that there is not any rule of universal application by which, given
the ages of husband and wife, their probable issue during a twelvemonth may
be foretold by subtracting the sum of the ages from a constant number.
Though it is certain that no general law exists, such as has been claimed,
it is obvious from the first series just given that there are certain ages within
which the sums of the ages of husband and wife indicate somewhat equal
ratios of childbirth. These sums appear to be from 45 to 73, provided the
wife's age is not more than 34 years. That is to say, where the united ages
of the husband and wife are from 45 to 73, the probability of the birth of a
child within a year for couples with equal age sums will be the same.
52
The following examples illustrate this :—
Age of Wife.
Age of Husband.
Natality per 100 Couples.
SUM OF AGES OF HUSBAND AND WIFE =50.
22
23
24
28
27
26
25
24
30'4
29'8
29-4
29•2
29•4
25
26
SUM OF AGES OF HUSBAND AND WIFE =60.
25
27
30
33
35
35
33
27'7
26-4
257
25'2
23-5
SUM OF AGES OF HUSBAND AND WiFE=70.
30
27
25
25
27
30
33
35
45
43
40
37
35
22-6
22-6
If the united ages amount to more than 73, very diverse results are
obtained : —
22-0
21-2
20-8
Age of Wife.'
Age of Husband.
Natality per 100 Couples.
SUM OF AGES OF HUSBAND AND WIFE =75.
25
30
35
40
45
50
45
40
35
30
21-2
20•5
18•9
14*2
5-0
SUM OF AGES OF HUSBAND AND WiFE=^SO.
«*
55
50
45
40
35
25
20-4
19\S
18'9
128
4-8
30
35
40
45
SUM OF AGES OF HUSBAND AND WIFE = 85.
25
30
35
40
45
60
55
50
45
40
19-8
19-5
17-2
12-1
4'6
53
These series show the predominating influence of the age of the wife, and
where the wife is nob over 33 years of age, youth on the side of the husband
partly compensates for an increase in the age of the wife. Thus the per-
centage of natality of women aged 25 years with husbands of 55 years is
20-4, while for women of 35 years with husbands of 55 the probable natality
is 17•0; if, however, in this latter class of women the age of the husband
be reduced to 35 years, the natality is equal to that of women of 25, and
with husbands of 25 years the natality of women of 35 is greater than
that of women of 25 with middle-aged husbands. When, however, the
higher ages are examined it will be seen that compensation to anything like
this extent is absent. Thus, the probable births to women of 22 years of
age, even with husbands of 60 years is 19-7 per cent., and the same average
obtains for women of 27, yet a woman of 39 years has not an equal pro-
bability as this, even with the most youthful of husbands. Again, with
women of 43 years, the highest natality is 8•7 per cent, with husbands of 30
years of age; this is only half the ratio for women ten years younger with
husbands of 60 years of age.
To obtain equal ratios of natality from women of different ages, as the
wife's age increases so the husband's must decrease, but with wives under 28
the increase in the husband's age needs not be material; from 28 to 36 years
a rapid decrease in the husband's age seems necessary. As the wife's age
increases beyond 36 the husband's age should decrease, but less rapidly than
at previous ages, and still less rapidly the more the wife's age runs on. To
these rules an exception must be made. Generally speaking, the diminution of
the husband's- age below 28 years does not affect in any appreciable degree the
birth-rate, and for women whose ages range from 30 to 40 years, the point of
greatest natality is with husbands of about 26 years. After women have
passed age 40 their highest natality is with husbands from 26 to 30 years,
nevertheless, there is very little difference, whether the husband be 20 or 40
years of age.
54
Plural Births.
THE plural births in the eight years, 1893-1900, were 3,088 in number,
representing 6,207 children. Of these births, 2,936 were legitimate, and 152
illegitimate, viz. :—
Legitimate.
Illegitimate.
Twins
2,910
150
Triplets
23
2
Quadruplets
3
Under ordinary circumstances it would be unscientific to attempt the
deduction, from such small numbers, of a law governing the occurrence of
plural births; but in one particular the results are so well marked and agree
so well with the observations of other countries that they may be accepted
as indicating a general law, viz., that the age of the parents is the chief
determining factor in the occurrence of plural births. Whatever part
heredity may play in marking out those who are liable to give birth to twins
or triplets, it is clear that there is a certain period of age both in males and
females, at which there is a greater tendency to produce twins than at other
times. For females this period is somewhere between the thirty-fifth and the
fortieth year, and for males it is a little later.
In Dr. Matthews Duncan's work on " Fecundity, Fertility, and Sterility,"
some particulars are given regarding the occurrence of plural births, and
though Dr. Duncan's observations were on a limited scale, extending only to
438 cases of plural births, and 32,686 confinements, compared with 3,088
cases of births, and 298,518 confinements in New South Wales, in the absence
of more extended statistics his corroboration is valuable, as he fixes the
period of greatest frequency of plural births amongst women at the same age
as ascertained for New South Wales.
In New South Wales the smallest proportion of plural births is found
amongst women below age 20 ; the proportion increases steadily with the age
of mothers until it reaches a maximum with women between the ages of 35
and 40 years, after which there is a decline ; but the decline does not bring
the ratio back to its starting point, for at ages 45 to 50 the plural births are
one to every 117 confinements, whereas at age 20 and under, the proportion
is one to 238.
The results of the observations for the eight years are as follows; the
figures refer to legitimate births only :—
Plural Births
per 1,000 of
all Births.
Age Group of Mothers.
All Births.
Plural Births.
Tinder 20 years
9,978
42
4-21
20 and under 25 years
60,070
371
6-18
25 30
78,919
734
9-30
30 , 35
64,803
850
13'12
35 40
45,681
706
15-46
49 45
17,374
218
12•55
45 , 50
1,753
15
8-56
It is a remarkable fact that of 2,936 births, 1,789 occurred to mothers
whose ages were 30 years or upwards ; this gives a proportion of 61 per cent.,
whereas of all legitimate births, only 47 per cent, occurred at those ages; 72
per cent, of plural births occurred to mothers over 27 years of age, whereas
of all births, only 52 per cent, were amongst such mothers. The same
preponderance is observable amongst illegitimate births. In the eight years,
19,940 cases of illegitimate births were recorded, thus distributed:—
All Births.
Plural Births.
Plural Births
per 1,000 of
all Births.
\Vomen
under 28 years
15,575
91
5-84
»
over 28 „
4,365
61
13-97
The number of triplets is very small. During the eight years there were
only 23 cases out of 278,601 legitimate births ; this represents 83 per million
confinements. It is surprising how closely the occurrence of these births is
also affected by the age of the mother. Of the triplets, 19 were born to
mothers over 30 years of age—that is to say, 83 per cent., whereas, in
ordinary births, the proportion of mothers of such age is only 46 per cent.
The mothers' ages in the three cases of quadruple births registered in the
eight years were 21, 33, and 36. ' ;
56
Sex.
IN an average year, of every 10,000 children born in New South Wales
5,134 will be males and 4,866 females; the excess of male births is therefore
268, or 5-51 per cent. In no year has the number of females born exceeded
that of the males, although the difference has sometimes been very slight.
Considering only children born to married women, the proportion of males to
every 100 females has varied between 101•71 and 108•06, showing a variation
of 6•35. The range in the proportion of the sexes born out of wedlock has
been much greater, indeed, in some years, there has been a majority of
females; during the past thirty years the proportion of males .to females
amongst illegitimates has varied between 94•96 and 121•96, showing a range
of 27 per cent., although, strange to say, the average is only 103•41 males to
100 females, whereas among legitimate births the average is 105•85.
The following is a statement of the proportion of male to female children
of legitimate and illegitimate parentage born during each of the last twenty
years :—
Males per 100 Females.
Males per 100 Females.
Year.
Year.
Legitimate
Births.
Illegitimate
Births.
Legitimate
Jbirths.
Illegitimate
Births.
1882
103•3
101•4
1892
105•3
103-8
1883
104•5
113•3
1893
106-7
105-7
1884
105•7
99•1
1894
105-4
107•1
1885 •
104•9
103-5
1895
104•6
114•1
1886
106•7
98•7
1896
105•6
95-4
1887
103•5
95-3
1897
103-9
105•4
1888
104-2
96•2
1898
107•2
104•0
1889
108-1
100•7
1899
104•0
1082
1890
104-2
104•7
1900
104•4
103•2
1891
107•0
105•7
1901
101•8
108•5
The influence of the age of parents upon the sex of their offspring is a
matter that has been much discussed. As just pointed out, the male births
always exceed the female births, and this excess is found at almost all ages of
parents, and the exceptions to the rule do not cover many cases. The sex
of children born in New South Wales has been compared with the age of the
parents, and certain general rules may be deduced therefrom. It would
appear that:—
(a) The youngest children in families, where the mother has continued
fruitful up to the age 45 years, are more often girls than boys.
(b) Where the father is ten years younger than the mother there will be
more female births than male.
(c) Where the father is twenty years or more older than the mother,
provided the latter is herself not under 22 years of age nor over
33 years of age, there will be an excess of females born.
57
(d) The female births exceed the male as the mother approaches the
limit of child-bearing, no matter what the father's age may be.
(e) Where the mother is very young and the father is also young, the
female births slightly exceed the male births.
The number of children born to married couples falling within the foregoing
age conditions is not large, and under all other age conditions an excess of
male births was recorded.
Taking the average of the last eight years, the proportion of male births
to 100 female births was 105-85. For mothers of different ages the propor-
tions were as follow :—
Average Male
Children born to
100 Females.
Average Male
Children born to
100 Females.
Average Male
Children born to
100 Females.
Mother's
Age.
Mother's
Age.
Mother's
Age.
14
77
26
106-5
38
106
15
89
27
106-5
39
104
16
96
28
106-5
40
104
17
102-4
29
106-5
41
104
18
105
30
106
42
104
19
106
31
106
43
103
20
106
32
106
44
102
21
106'5
33
106
45
101
22
106-5
34
106
46
100
23
106-5
35
106
47
100
21
106-5
36
105
48
99
25
107
37
105
The highest average rate, viz., 107, is therefore at 25 years. All ages from
17 to 47 show a larger proportion of male than female births, those outside
these limits show a less proportion.
There is much less range in the proportion of male children when the
father's age is the basis of comparison. For fathers up to 65 years there is
an excess at every age of male births, after 65 years the contrary appears to
be true, and for age groups 65-70 the proportion is only 85 -8 per hundred,
but the number of fathers of this age is inconsiderable.
If the ages of both parents be made factors of a comparison, a much wider
range in the proportions of male and female births is disclosed. The highest
proportion (124•7) for any age group is for mothers aged 20 years with
fathers of 42 years, that is to say, for the youngest mothers for whom there
are statistics, and the oldest group of fathers married to women of that
particular age. The lowest proportion of male births, 63 fl per hundred
females, is found amongst women of 45 years with husbands of 33; these
ages represent the oldest woman's age for which there are observations and
the youngest group of fathers with women of that age.
The proportion of male births to 100 female births to women of the ages
specified are given for husbands from 23 to 60 years. Wives below 20 years
have been omitted, and no proportions are set against ages where the number
of couples was too small to admit of a proper average being obtained.
58
PBOPOBTION of Male Children out of 100 Births to Estreats aged as
under.:—
Father's Age.
Mothers Age.
Mother's Age.
Father's Age.
20 years.
25 years.
35 years.
45 years.
25 years.
35 years.
45 years.
65 years.
20
48-7
20
Sl'O
54•0
21
49-1
...
21
51-2
53•4
22
49-6
22
51-3
52•8
23
50'0
51-3
23
51-5
52-2
60-4
24
50-5
51-6
24
51'6
52-2
50-6
25
51-0
51•7
25
ol'7
52•2
50-8
26
51-4
51-9
26
51-8
52•2
51-0
...
27
51-8
52-1
50-4
...
27
51-9
52-2
51-3
28
52-0
52-0
50-6
28
51-7
52-2
51-5
29
52-3
52-1
50•6
29
51-6
52-1
51-5
30
52-6
52-1
50-9
30
51*4
52-0
51'6
31
53-0
521
51'0
31
51-3
51-9
51-7
32
532
52-1
51-0
32
51'1
51-8
51-8
...
33
53-4
52-1
51-2
387
33
50•9
51-7
51-9
...
34
53-7
52-2
51-3
39-5
34
51-6
52'0
35
54-0
52-2
51-4
40-5
35
51-4
52-1
36
54-4 ,
52-2
51-5
41-7
36
...
51-3
52-2
...
37
54-6
52-2
51-5
42-6
37
51 -1
52-3
38
54-8
52-1
51-6
43•5
38
50-9
52-5
541
39
55-0
52-1
51•7
44-3
39
51-1
52-2
52-0
40
55-2
52-1
51-8
45-0
40
51-4
51-9
49-9
41
55-3
51-9
51-8
45-9
41
51-7
51•6
47-8
42
55-5
51-8
51-9
46-4
42
...
52-0
51-3
45-7
43
51-6
52-0
47-0
43
48-2
50-2
43-6
44
. . i
51-3
52•0
47'6
44
44'4
491
41-5
45
50-8
52-1
48-0
45
-40-5
48-0
39-5
46
50-3
52-1
48-5
47
49'7
521
49-0
48
49'4
52-2
49'5
49
48'3
52-2
50-0
50
47'3
52-2
50-2
51
46-2
52-1
50-5
52
45-0
52-3
60-8
53
52-0
50-9
54
50-9
55
50-8
56
. ..
50-6
57
50-2
58
49-6
59
49-0
60
...
48-0
61
. • >
47-0
62
46•0
63
44-0
...
...
64
42•0
65
... !
39'5
59
Deaths iij Child-birth.
THE statistics of all countries are deficient in particulars concerning deaths
of women in child-birth—the actual number of such deaths is, of course,
known wherever vital statistics are published, but the more important details
are singularly wanting, and the statistics of New South Wales are now, as
regards this particular branch of enquiry, in all important respects, as
complete as any yet published. Nevertheless, even the New South Wales
figures could be improved. One-fourth of all deaths are ascribed to " other
casualties of child-birth," and at the very threshold of his enquiry the investi-
gator is met with defective information. This faulty definition is due to
want of thought on the part of medical attendants in furnishing the certificates
required by law, the cause of death certified to by them being simply " child-
birth," which, in most cases, means one or other of the specific causes
enumerated in the Table ; but even of this there can be no certainty, and in
this connection it may not be out of place to remark that many of the diffi-
culties of the statistician in dealing with vital statistics arise from the careless
manner in which medical men render their death certificates.
During the eight years which closed with 1900 there were in New South
Wales 2,138 deaths due to child-birth ; of these 1,927 were of married women
and 211 of single women. The assigned causes were as shown below :—
Total
1893-1900.
Cause of Death.
1893.
1894.
1895.
1896.
1897.
1898.
1899.
1900.
Abortion
5
12
11
11
26
16
20
18
119
Miscarriage
19
21
26
27
32
20
32
33
210
Puerperal fever
67
110
111
81
113
92
82
75
731
3
4
1
5
3
1
3
2
oo
Puerperal convulsions ..
22
28
23
27
32
31
35
28
226
Placenta praevia-flooding ......
Phlegmasia dolens
36
3
30
1
40
2
36
1
39
37
44
39
1
301
14
4
9
Other casualties of Child-birth.
66
61
64
61
72
59
60
72
515
Total
?9,1
267
278
249
321
256
278
268
2,138
During this period there were 278,601 confinements of married women, and
19,940 of unmarried women, so that the death-rate amongst the former class
was 1 in 145, and amongst the latter 1 in 95.
The two important considerations in dealing with the risk at child-birth,
are the age of the mother and the number, if any, of her previous confine-
ments. The following table gives a distribution of the confinements
according to previous issue, and the number of deaths in each class. This
60
interesting grouping can be given only for married women, the registrations
not affording particulars of the previous issue of the unmarried :—
Number of
Confinement.
Deaths in
Child-birth.
Number of
Confinement.
Deaths in
Child-birth.
Births.
Births.
1
56,247
495
14
689
4
2
45,928
215
15
349
4
3
38,783
212
16 ,
142
1
4
32,208
169
17
74
1
5
26,783
184
18
23
2
6
21,720
137
19
14
i-r
17,422
130
20
4
8
13,486
126
21
9
9,699
101
22
1
10
6 739
53
23
3
11
4 381
38
12
2,541
30
Total
278,601
1,927
13
1,365
25
The number of confinements of each class up to the thirteenth is suffi-
ciently large to enable the probability of a death to be determined; the
values given hereunder for this probability are those obtained direct from the
statistics, together with the results after adjustment:—
Number of
Confinement.
Probability of Death
during Confinement.
Number of
Confinement.
Probability of Death
during Confinement.
Unadjusted.
Adjusted.
Unadjusted.
Adjusted.
1
•00880
•00468
•00547
•00525
•00687
•00631
•00746
•00880
•00468
•00512
•00552
•00606
•00672
•00736
8
•00934
•01041
•00786
•00867
•01181
•01832
•00816
•00900
•01000
•01128
•01326
•01740
2
9
3
10
4
11
5
12
6
13
7
These figures show one element of the risk of dying in child-birth, and,
taking all women, it would appear that the risk attending the first confinement
is greater than at any subsequent confinement up to the ninth; the minimum,
•00468, is at the second ; but at the third confinement the risk is not much
greater. The element of age is, however, so important that it will be neces-
sary to discuss the question of risk in relation both to the number of previous
confinements and the age attained.
First Confinements.
The risk of a mother dying at or within a month of her first confinement
is greater than at any subsequent one up to but not including the ninth.
61
About one-half of all the first confinements occur to mothers under 24 years
of age, and three-fourths to women under 27 years. If the confinements and
deaths be arranged according to age, the importance of age as an element of
risk will be at once apparent. The following statement applies to married
women only:—
Number of First
Confinements.
Number of
Deaths in Child-
birth.
Number of First
Confinements.
Number of
Deaths in Child*
birth.
Age of Mothers.
Age of Mothers.
Years.
Years.
Under 18
1,549
11
33
717
15
18
2,504
21
34
535
&
19
3,935
29
35
482
9
20
4,408
23
36
415
4
21
5,676
39
37
272
5
22
5,942
44
38
260
4
23
5,621
46
39
194
1
24
4,816
35
40
155
3
25
4,188
35
41
60
2
26
3,560
28
42
77
1
27
2,897
24
43
37
2
28
2,461
25
44
24
2
29
1,835
29
45 and over
32
2
30
1,614
21
Not stated
4
—
01
i nio
01
J. , U-i-tJ
32
928
18
Total
56,247
495
Taking all married primipane, the number of fatal cases represents one
death to 114 confinements, so that the average risk is '0088. The risk
appears to be least at age 20, the proportion of deaths for ages 18 and 19, the
only years below that age available for comparison, being considerably in
excess of the rates for the higher age. After age 20 the risk increases
slightly for a few years, and at 27 years is no higher than at 18 years;
thereafter it mounts up rapidly, and at age 40 it reaches the high proportion
of one in 58. The risk of death at each age is as shown below :—
Probability of Death at First
Confinement.
Probability of Death at First
Confinement.
Age of Mother.
Age of Mother.
Unadjusted.
Adjusted.
Unadjusted.
Adjusted.
Years.
Years.
Under 18
•00710
_
32
•01940
•0175
18
•00839
•0084
33
•02092
•0185
19
•00737
•0068
34
•01682
•0184
20
•00522
•0061
35
•01867
•0172
21
•00687
•0062
36
•00964
•0149
22
•00740
•0069
37
•01838
•0132
23
•00818
•0075
38
•01538
•0131
24
•00727
•0077
39
•00515
•0143
25
•00836
•0079
40
•01935
•0172
26
•00787
•0082
41
•03333
•0217
27
•00828
•OOS7
42
•01299
•0282
28
•01016
•0097
43
•05405
•0366
29
•01580
•0113
44
•08333
—
30
•01301
•0123
45 and over
•06250
—
31
•00763
•0155
Multlparae.
The number of confinements of women who had already borne children
was during the eight years 222,354, and the number of deaths 1,432. The
fatal cases, therefore, represent one to every 155 confinements, being a risk
of -00645 compared with -0088 amongst primiparse; such comparison, how-
ever, is of no great value, as the confinements of multipart are numerous at
ages over 30 years, at which ages first confinements are exceptional.
Distributing the confinements according to the age of the mothers, the
following were the numbers thereof, and of the deaths at each age period :—
Number of
Confinements
(Multipart),
Number of
Deaths in
Child-
birth.
Number of
Confinements
(Multipart).
Number of
Deaths in
Child-
birth.
Age of Mother.
Age of Mother.
Years.
Under 18
117
Years.
27
13,063
65
18
475
2
28
13,769
84
19 ... *
1 398
5
29
13,073
61
20
2,740
•7
30 and under 35
59,953
408
21
4,632
12
35 ,, 40
44,055
400
22
6,634
28
40 „ 45
17,020
186
23 . .
8,956
27
45 and over
1,743
22
24
10 644
38
Unknown
13
25
11 422
36
26 . . . .
12,647
51
Total
222,354
1,432
From these figures the probability of a death occurring at any age may be
deduced. This probability is as shown in the following table :—
Probability of Death during
Confinement.
Probability of Death during
Confinement.
Age of Mother.
Age of Mother.
Unadjusted.
Adjusted.
Unadjusted.
Adjusted.
18
•00421
•00358
•00255
•00259
•00422
"00301
•00357
•00315
•00403
•00498
W510
•00467
•00385
•00340
•00315
•00305
•00307
•00316
•00330
•00355
•00388
•00430
•00480
•00530
•00580
•00635
32
•00681
•00681
•00732
•00780
•00826
•00870
•00908
•00950
•00988
•01027
•01062
•01093
19
33
20
34
21
35
•00908
22 .. .. .
36 ...
23
37
24
38
25 ....
39
26 ....
40
27
41
28
42
•01093
29
43
30
44
31
The age of least risk for multipart is 21 years. This is also about the time
of least risk for primiparse, but the probability of death is only about half as
63
great for women with previous issue as for women without previous issue. It
will be seen that the probability of death is considerably greater for women
below than at age 20. After 20 years the risk increases with age, but not
rapidly until age 26 is reached. Comparing the deaths of primiparse and
multipart at the same ages, the superiority of the women who have already
been mothers is very noticeable.
%
Probability of Death.
Age of Mother.
Primiparse.
Multipart.
18
'0084
•0061
•0079
•0123
•0172
•0172
•00385
•00315
•00355
20
25
30
-00580
-00826
•01027
35
40
It will be seen that for both classes of women age is the great element in
the risk. With multipart age brings in a further condition, viz., loss of
vitality said to arise out of previous confinements, and it is interesting to
determine whether the statistics give evidence of such condition. The
following table gives the probability of death in child-birth for mothers of
various ages, according to the number of previous issue :—
Previous Issue.
Age Groups.
1
2
3
4
5
7
8
9
15 19
'0066
20 °4
•0047
•0037
9% 9Q
•0056
•0047
•0041
•0039
-0043
•0049
30-34
-0067
•0065
•0063
•0061
•0062
•0065
-0074
-0087
35-39
•0084
•OOS5
•0086
•0088
-0092
•0096
•0101
•0107
•0114
40-44
•0109
•0110
•0111
•0113
•0116
•0118
•0121
•0125
•0130
Ages, L5-44
•0053
•0056
•0060
•0065
•0072
•0081
•0092
-0105
•0120
The importance of age, as an element of the risk, is apparent at each
confinement, but the figures do not warrant the supposition that, apart from
age, each successive confinement is attended with additional risk. The most
that can be asserted is that for some women such is the case; on the other
hand, there are a large number to whom the risk of dying is somewhat the
same, whether their confinement be the second or the tenth.
Primiparae and Multipart combined.
A statement of the probability for all married women, primiparse and
multipart combined, is not of great interest where, as in New South Wales,
it is possible to show the probability for each class separately, but the
combined rate is given for .purposes of comparison with the statistics of
countries where the distinction has not been made. The following statement
combines the figures given previously for each class:—
Probability of Death during
Confinement.
Probability of Death during
Confinement.
Age of Mother.
Age of Mother.
Unadjusted.
Adjusted.
Unadjusted.
Adjusted.
Under 18
•00660
•00772 .
•00638
•00420
•00495
•00573
•00501
•00472
•00455
•00487
•00558
•00672
•00604
31
•00724
•00758
•00790
•00821
•00851
•00884
•00918
•00953
•00994
•01037
•01081
•01128
18
32
•00739
19
•00612
•00534
•00485
•00464
•00460
•00468
•00490
•00527
•00574
•00618
•00653
•00690
33
20
34
21
35
22
36 .
23
37
•00926
24
38
25
39
26
40
27
41
28
42
•01128
29
43
30
44
Deaths of Unmarried Women.
There is a difficulty in dealing with the deaths of the unmarried, as the
previous issue of such women is not ascertained. It is probable the majority
of the unmarried women under 25 years of age are prmriparsB : beyond that
age it is equally probable there are numerous multipart amongst them ;
indeed the rates themselves indicate this. The total number of confinements
of unmarried women was 19,940 and the deaths 211, thus distributed :—
Number of
Confine-
ments.
Number of
Deaths
in Child-
birth.
Number of
Confine-
ments.
Number of
Deaths
in Child-
birth.
Age of Mother.
Age of Mother.
12
1
25
919
786
668
609
511
1,710
1,110
325
40
60
12
5
8
3
13
10
64
212
'""l
1
5
8
16
15
22
21
21
17
16
10
26
14
27
15
28
16
592
1,142
,578
,917
,883
,806
,590
,337
,070
29
IT
t
17
30 and under 35
35 „ 40
40 „ 45
45 3/nd over
16
5
2
18
19
20
21
jN"ot stilted.
22
23
Total
19,940
211
24
65
The risk of death at each age was therefore :—
Under 15 •02667
15 and under 20 '01213
20 „ 25 01106
25 „ 30 -01002
30 ,, 35 -00936
35 „ 40 -00450
40 and over '00548
The most noticeable point about these figures is the downward progression
of the death probabilit}^ as age increases, which is an absolute reversal of
the experience derived from the deaths of married women. The figures
have also another peculiarity, which is, that for women of 35 years of
age and upwards, the probability of a death is less amongst the unmarried
than amongst the married, and at ages over 30 the probability is less for the
unmarried than for married primiparse.
An explanation of the last point may be found in the fact that unmarried
multipart may possibly be largely represented amongst the women of the higher
ages, but of this there is no certainty, as the law does not require particulars
of previous issue where such issue is illegitimate. A reason for the declining
ratios of the unmarried may be found in the fact that the women under 25
who, being with child, do not succeed in obtaining marriage from their
seducers, are both physically and mentally in a pitiable state, and in most
cases bereft of the commonest comforts and conveniences demanded by their
condition. Besides this, they are haunted by a dread of exposure, and, in
their ignorance, many of them resort to quacks and abortionists.
For the light death-rate amongst unmarried women over 35 years of age,
no explanation can be extracted from the statistics. During the eight years,
1893-1900, there were 1,475 confinements of unmarried women of 35 years
and upwards and 7 deaths. Amongst married women of the same age there
were 64,826 confinements and 643 deaths, the rates for the unmarried being
1 death to 211 confinements, and for the married 1 to 101 confinements.
More striking still is the comparison with the married primiparre ; of these
over 35 years of age there were 2,008 confinements and 35 deaths, giving a
ratio of 1 death to 57 confinements, which is nearly four times as great as
for unmarried women. The numbers, both of the unmarried women and the
married primiparse over 35 years of age, are small, and no safe deduction can
be drawn from them ; it is evident, however, that the unmarried women of
mature age who become mothers must be of an exceptional class to be
subjected to so few casualties.
British Mortality Experience.
Prior to the publication of the information now presented, the best
statistics on the subject of child-birth were those contained in Dr. Matthews
Duncan's well-known work already alluded to. Writing in 1871, Dr. Duncan
declared that "not fewer than one in every 120 women, delivered at or near
the full time, die within four weeks of childbed." In New South Wales
there is, happily, a better though still a high average, for there were 2,138
deaths from 298,541 confinements of married and unmarried women, or one
death to 140 confinements. As Dr. Duncan has made the distinction between
66
primiparse and multipart, a comparison of his results for various ages with
those of New South Wales is interesting. This the following table affords :—
Ag;6 Groups.
Primiparse.
Multiparae.
New South
Wales.
Dr. Matthews
Duncan.
New South
Wales.
Dr. Matthews
Duucan,
15 and
20
25
30
35
40
45 ,..
under 20
•00764
•00707
•00944
•01466
•01417
•02833
•0120S
•01291
•01291
•02260
•00746
•00352
•00333
•00464
•00681
-00908
•01093
25
•00711
•00521
•01115
•00879
•00991
•02174
, 30
, 35
, 40
, 45
In a paper read at the 66th annual meeting of the British Medical
Association, held in Edinburgh, Dr. J. Playfair and Mr. T. Wallace gave
statistics of the deaths in the Royal Maternity and Simpson Memorial
Hospitals at Edinburgh. For married prirniparse they found the death-rate
to be -02053, or one death to 49 confinements ; and for married multipart
the death-rate was '0056, or one death to 179 confinements, in both cases
very much higher than the rates ascertained for New South Wales; but the
experience afforded by a hospital is too small to warrant definite conclusions
being drawn from it.
Comparative Death Rates since 1860.
Extremely important modifications have taken place in the birth rates of
New South Wales during recent years, indicative of a radical change either
in the physical condition or in the haloits of the people. No changes of the
kind could take place without being reflected, in a greater or less degree, in
the death rates of married women, and it would be interesting, therefore, to
compare the ratio of deaths as now ascertained with those of past years. It
is, unfortunately, impossible to make such comparison with certainty of its
accuracy, at all events, for years prior to 1893. It is true that the causes of
deaths have been officially registered for over forty years, but there has been
great negligence by medical men in filling up the certificates required by law.
Since 1893 the death certificates have been carefully scrutinized, and the
statistics compiled with the most patient care, but previous to that year, when
deaths occurred in child-birth, there seemed reluctance in many instances to
state specifically the fact, and various ill-defined descriptions of the cause of
death have been returned and accepted by the registration office, and where a
defined cause has been given, the important qualification puerperal has been
omitted in a large number of cases, especially of septicaemia and peritonitis.
This reluctance to acknowledge the true cause of death is nob confined to
New South Wales, and statements for any country indicating a more favour-
able general death-rate than one in one hundred and seventy should be
received with caution.
What has just been said must, therefore, be borne in mind in considering
the following figures, which purport to show the ratio of deaths in child-birth
since 1870 for the state of New South Wales :—
Period. Ratio.
1870-80 •004891
1881-90 '004309
1891-1900 M '-006509
67
It would be idle, at this late stage, to attempt to correct the under-
statements in the number of deaths from child-birth during the years prior to
1890, but every argument founded on reason or probability would lead to the
conclusion that the rates of recent years should show a marked decline.
Medical attendance, skilled nursing and medical comforts, are now within
the reach of most women ; twenty-five years ago this was certainly not the
case, and doubtless many lives were then lost that now would be saved.
Yet, making every possible correction for errors of registration, the rates of
1870—1880 cannot be brought up to the level of those of recent years, and it
must be admitted that deaths from child-birth have increased during the last
twenty years. This result is a curious satire on the efforts of science to
ameliorate the condition, of the mothers of our race. So curious, indeed, is
the result that the question at once arises—is there not some cause for the
increase in the death-rate of parturient women tending to neutralize all that
science and skill can do in their behalf. The statistics do not enable an
absolutely satisfactory answer to be given to this question, but they certainly
indicate, as a distinct probability, that the increase in the death-rate of child-
bearing women is associated with the decline in the birth-rate.
Two apparently opposite causes are in operation and bring about a like
result. The failure to bear children is conspicuously prevalent amongst
women of the well-to-do classes and amongst those whose circumstances permit
them to provide everything that would tend to ameliorate the condition and
safeguard life during the critical period. Amongst women not so fortunately
situated as regards material comforts, there is less restriction, and these are
the mothers to whom the danger of death is greatest. The failure to bear
children of women whose confinements would be attended with the minimum
of danger increases the apparent average risk to all women, although as a
matter of fact, the real risk may not have increased.
The second cause affecting the death-rates arises out of the practice of
restriction, and is deserving of very serious consideration. It will have been
seen that absolute infecundity does not account for any large part of the
decline in the birth-rate. The great majority of married women still bear
children, but many of them do so with reluctance, and make the interval
between the births of successive children as great as possible. To accomplish
their purpose, measures are taken by some which are inconsistent with the
future safe delivery of another child, and it is amongst these women that the
casualties take place which swell the death-roll and make the present rate so
high.
68
Conclusion.
IT cannot be denied that the condition of affairs disclosed by several of the
preceding chapters arises from a direct reversal of the ordinary canons of
morality. It is not, however, to be supposed that the practices of which this
condition is the evidence are peculiar to Australia; on the contrary, it is
probable they are just as rife in other countries, but, owing to the absence of
statistics, there is no exact measure of the extent to which they are indulged
in.
Many persons have been unwilling to accept what appears to be the obvious
cause of the decline in the birth-rate as the actual cause, and, falling back
upon the theory of the tendency of cerebral development to lessen fertility,
have sought in this tendency an explanation of the decline in the birth-rates
in Australia as well as in other countries. The theory of decreased fertility
due to cerebral development found wide acceptance in England some thirty
years ago, when Greig's " Enigmas of Life" was first published; it was
especially agreeable to the very large number of persons wishful to escape
from the dire logic of Mai thus, and to " justify the ways of God to men " in
some other manner than by supposing that the incurable tendency of population
to increase faster than its sustenance could be counteracted only by vice,
misery, or moral restraint. The general question of the effect of cerebral
development upon fecundity need not be discussed here; whether it is true or
not, cannot be ascertained from any statistics yet collected in Australia. It
is obvious, however, that the cerebral development of a race is a matter of
slow growth, and to explain the decline in the birth-rate by reference to this
cause is to neglect certain very obvious facts. For many years the Australian
birth-rate was high, but within a certain short period between the years of
1880 and 1890, there was a complete change to a low rate. This change was
manifest in all classes of the community, except amongst women of Irish birth,
amongst people of every shade of opinion and of every social condition.
Changes in cerebral development are not thus rapid in their operation nor so
widespread in their range. Moreover, it is doubtful if the conditions which
make for cerebral development have had much effect on the great bulk of the
community during the last two generations, notwithstanding the spread of
elementary instruction. The existing facts are compatible with only one
explanation, viz., that in the years following 1880 the art of applying artificial
checks to conception was successfully learnt and has continued in operation to
this day. Nor are there any present signs that the lessons thus learnt are
likely to be forgotten. The improvement in the material condition of the
country may favourably affect the birth-rate, mainly by bringing about an
increase in marriage, but also because it happens that, amongst certain classes,
the women are willing to bear children when the prospect of their maintenance
is in sight. The risk of death in child-bed when conception takes place after
a long period of artificial repression, may also have effect in dissuading some
against an indulgence in this practice, while strong measures against profes-
sional abortionists would beneficially affect alike the birth-rate and the moral
tone of the community.
69
As bearing upon the subject of child-birth, it may be mentioned that the
conditions of life in Australia necessitate much separation of husbands and
wives. On the night of the Census of 1901, 30,379 husbands out of 206,186
in New South Wales were not under the same roof with their wives, and this
is the habitual condition throughout Australia. The advent of more settled
life will prevent this breaking up of families and conduce to a higher birth-
rate. But at best, these remedies, if operating to their full extent, would not
go far to restore the former birth-rate, nor would anything be effective unless
a radical change takes place in the mental and moral attitude of women
towards child-bearing.
There are, however, conditions which are certain to operate adversely to an
improvement in the birth-rate. It is possible that there may be a great moral
improvement in the relations of men and women before marriage. This would
mean a decline in the number of ante-nuptial conceptions, and as ante-nuptial
conceptions are a great factor in keeping up the marriage-rate, any reduction
in their numbers would be attended by a further fall in the marriage-rate, and,
as a consequence, in the birth-rate also. Another factor tending towards a
decrease in the proportion of births is the decline in the Irish element of the
population. It will have been seen in the chapter dealing with the subject,
that amongst mothers of Irish birth the number of children to a marriage has
remained much the same as formerly, whilst amongst all other women there has
been a great decline. Wherever women of Irish birth are numerous the birth-
rate has been higher than elsewhere, but, as the proportion of Irish women is
fast decreasing, this element in the maintenance of the birth-rate will presently
disappear.
Large as is the area of the Australian continent, it is impossible that its
people will ever become truly great under the conditions affecting the increase
of population which now obtain. Immigration has practically ceased to be an
important factor, the maintenance and increase of population depending upon
the birth-rate alone, a rate seriously diminished and still diminishing. ]N"o
people has ever become great under such conditions, or, having attained great-
ness, has remained great for any lengthened period. The problem of the fall
in the birth-rate is, therefore, a national one of overwhelming importance to
the Australian people, perhaps more than to any other people, and on its
satisfactory solution will depend whether this country is ever to take a place
amongst the great nations of the world.
Sydney : William Applegate Gullick, Government Printer.—1903.
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