INTERNATIONAL REVIEW SERVICE > W ANALYSIS And Review OF INTERNATIONAL PROBLEMS B 1,635,723 JZ 15588 D57 OF MICH 1961 1 1961 LIBRARY ولادی R? BUHR GRAD DISARMAMENT: IMPACT ON UNDERDEVELOPED COUNTRIES POLITICAL SOCIAL ECONOMIC By A. G. Mezerik Volume VII No. 64 BUHR/Bra! Винг JE 5588 کی ام “. X ! THE THE NIVERSITY OF MIC A UNIVERSITY OF MI ... ! Plaza 1-0833 Cable: UNOVIRS 1 £ MICHIGAN 1817 *LIBRARIES A. G. Mezerik, Editor 15 Washington Place, New York 3, U.S.A. UN Bureau: Room 301, United Nations, N. Y. MICHIGAN. INTERNATIONAL REVIEW SERVICE IRS is an independent editorial organization. Clients may quote or reprint up to 500 words, crediting IRS. Others should request permission. : ". ! 1: DISARMAMENT: IMPACT Contents UNDERDEVELOPED COUNTRIES ON Political. Social Social. Economic Importance of Base Expenditures Revenue from Bases Includes Aid. V (Research for this report was assisted by grants through the Institute for International Order) By A.G. MEZERIK Introduction Disarmament Matter for Great Powers. Political Reality Requires Widespread Disarmament. Big Powers Capable of Adjusting to End of Arms Race Role of Armaments in Life of Underdeveloped Countries. Military Expenditures in UDC's by Major Armed Countries Purchase of Supplies Abroad . Part of Wages Spent Locally Bases are Widespread - Provide Employment Concern for Recipients Sometimes Secondary. Peaceful Competition in Aid a Possibility Stockpiles Part 1 Specific Forms of Aid Tied to Bases. Direct Military and Defense Support. Survival of Countries and US Defense Support Money. Civilian Benefits Flowing from Military Alliances National Budget Sometimes Small in Relation to Aid. Provision of Arms to Underdeveloped Countries. Non-Military Aid Also Predicated on Cold War Policy Shifting Currents of Aid: Poland, Yugoslavia, UAR, Iraq Relationship of Cold War to Bargaining Power of Underdeveloped Countries. Cuba Conflict Stimulates New US Fund. Raw Materials for Arms Building and Maintenance. Countries Dependent on Income from Raw Materials OA.G. MEZERIK 1961 Page 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 сл LO 5 сл 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 Table of Contents (Continued) Page Korean War End Caused Mighty Decline. . Price Drops Cripple Underdeveloped Countries Trade Also in Cold War Area. Effect on Standard of Living . Political and Security Implications Effects on Internal Status Quo Effect On Dictatorships. Defense Arrangements Entrusted to Armed Powers. Big Power Might Part of Arsenal of Underdeveloped Countries Missiles Great Factor in Cuba; Impact of Threat to Use Force. Maintenance of Armies by Underdeveloped Countries Fear of Expansionism . Big Underdeveloped Countries' Armies Supplied and Supported by Armed Countries $5,000 Million Yearly Spent on Arms by Underdeveloped Countries Expansion and Consolidation The Arms Suppliers to Underdeveloped Countries Planes, Tanks and Guns for Underdeveloped Countries. Curtailing Ability to Revolt The Force of Numbers Search for Equalizers . Avenues Toward Solutions . Big Power Promises. Redeeming the Promises Tax Relief and Needed Public Works Economic Planning Essential • • Part II • The Economic Development Problem Doubt on Conversion to Economic Development UN Charter Provision.. The Political Necessities Equal Voice in UN Problems of Peaceful Change Defense and Police Protection UN Peace Force "Window Pane" Concept of UNEF. Congo Force as Model for Peace Force. Objections to Peace Force. Inspection System Part III 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 19 20 20 21 21 21 22 23 24 25 25 26 27 27 28 28 29 29 30 30 31 31 32 Table of Contents (Continued) The Widening of Horizons The Great Prize References APPENDIXES: A: Armed Forces Estimates of NATO, Warsaw Pact & Other European Countries B: Government Defense Expenditures in Relation to Total Budget, Country by Country C: GA Resolution on the Economic and Social Consequences of Disarmament D: Raw Materials from Underdeveloped Country Sources Page 32 32 35 37 38 40 41 DISARMAMENT: IMPACT ON UNDERDEVELOPED COUNTRIES Arms and armaments now have first call, almost universally, on vast quantities of resources, on the youth of most of the world, and on the services of scientists of the highest quality. In each year $100,000 million is spent by countries, large and small, for military purposes. Everyone recognizes the benefits that would flow if this vast treasure and the brains and the brawn of the millions of people involved could be turned to peace- ful pursuits in a disarmed world. (See Appendix B) The premise of this report is that the freeing of man's labor and nature's resources from war and preparation for war is an altogether desirable thing. The purpose of this re- port is to indicate that disarmament is therefore not only desirable for the great con- tending cold war powers but also for underdeveloped countries, which spend $5,000 mil- lion on armaments annually. The total stake of the underdeveloped countries in disarm- ament and disarmament negotiations is, however, not always clearly understood. This stake concerns not only the technicalities and details of armament reduction, inspection and control, which are so much discussed by the big powers but also, and most impor- tantly, the economic, social and political effects on underdeveloped countries of every step taken by the big powers toward disarmament. Disarmament Matter for Great Powers The concept is widely held that disarmament is a matter affecting only the great powers. In this context disarmament agreements are conceived to be a matter for nego- tiation between the big powers. This emphasis clouds the much wider horizon of the 2 DISARMAMENT: IMPACT ON UNDERDEVELOPED COUNTRIES impacts on the rest of the world of the disarmament measures on which the two greatest powers might agree. Political Reality Requires Widespread Disarmament While it is true that disarmament will make its primary impact on the two great powers, it is also obvious that these big powers will not disarm under conditions that would permit smaller nations to remain armed, which implies that all countries would need to disarm. This political fact, generally ignored, of itself justifies participation of all coun- tries, large and small, in disarmament discussions, up to now limited to the biggest powers and their close allies. Big Powers Capable of Adjusting to End of Arms Race While there are many points of view on what the consequences, particularly eco- nomic, of ending the arms race might be on the great developed countries, and especially on the US, there are few who will say that these countries, including the US, would be un- able to solve the problems which arise. Underdeveloped countries also can undoubtedly surmount all the problems which will arise for them with the cessation of the arms race. But this task will be made immen- sely more difficult if the impact of disarmament steps on underdeveloped countries is not clearly understood in advance. Role of Armaments in Life of Underdeveloped Countries Armaments and armed forces today play an extremely important role in the life of underdeveloped countries. This role is dual: one part consists of the defense and secur- ity forces of the underdeveloped country itself; the second part is that played by the arms race of the big countries in the life of the underdeveloped country. Since disarmament of INTERNATIONAL REVIEW SERVICE VOL. VII NO. 64 3 (a) the big powers is the subject of constant discussion, it is essential to examine this second part with great care with a view to finding solutions for the problems which will face under- developed countries during a transitional period. Military Expenditures in UDC's by Major Armed Countries The cessation of the arms race and the introduction of a measure of disarmament will curtail the military expenditures of the major armed countries in certain underdeveloped countries. These military expenditures are today of varying importance to the economies of underdeveloped countries, and take several forms. Purchase of Supplies Abroad One form is the purchase of military supplies in an underdeveloped country by a major armed country. These supplies may be for use in the major country, as has been the case with simple products such as articles of clothing which can be processed more cheaply in the underdeveloped country than under the higher wages in the purchasing country. In 1959 the US military spent $1.41 billion for work outside the US. (Reference 1) A frequent example of military expenditures in underdeveloped countries is the local purchase of food, fuel, clothing and other supplies by the major country for use by its sol- diers who are stationed there. The aggregate of these purchases is considerable in such countries as Korea, Turkey and Hungary. Part of Wages Spent Locally Moreover the soldiers and civilians from the country which maintains the base spend a portion of their wages in the communities in which they are stationed. The money they spend for food, travel, services and goods now provides a significant amount of foreign ex- change for certain underdeveloped countries. Over 900,000 US soldiers were, in 1959, on active military duty in foreign countries outside the US. (Reference 2) 4 DISARMAMENT: IMPACT ON UNDERDEVELOPED COUNTRIES D Bases are Widespread - Provide Employment Soldiers on duty abroad are stationed in bases scattered throughout the world. The USSR maintains Soviet soldiers and bases in some Warsaw Pact countries including East Germany and Hungary; the UK has a system of bases in its own possessions and in new countries such as Cyprus as well as in other Commonwealth countries; and France main- tains bases in its possessions and in French Community countries such as Senegal. The US system of 250 bases is in thirty-six countries, extending through middle Europe, the Middle East, and around the rim of Asia through the Northern Pacific. These bases, as well as those of other armed developed countries such as Belgium, Portugal and the Netherlands, provide employment for the local populations. On 30 Novem- ber 1959, the US Department of Defense reported 90,255 foreign civilians under direct hire and 182,588 under contract hire. Their total equals twenty-two per cent of all civilians employed both within and without the US by the Department of Defense. (Reference 3) Importance of Base Expenditures The US Guantanamo Base in Cuba, now a subject of controversy, employs about 2,500 Cubans and has an annual payroll of about $5½ million which has always been con- sidered valuable to the economy of Oriente Province in which the base is located. The foreign exchange represented in this dollar payroll has also been important to the economy of Cuba, which has not forced the closing of the base although diplomatic and trade rela- tions between the US and Cuba are broken. Revenue from Bases Includes Aid Bases also provide direct revenue in the form of rents, which are important to countries such as Libya. Most base agreements have connected with them commitments to provide economic and development aid. · " 5 INTERNATIONAL REVIEW SERVICE VOL. VII NO. 64 j Specific Forms of Aid Tied to Bases Typical of the agreements which tie aid and bases together is the treaty signed on 10 February 1961 between the West Indies Federation, a British colony soon to become in- dependent, and the US, which has maintained bases in the West Indies since 1941. The new treaty specifically provides for US aid of more than $2,300,000 annually to be given to the Federation for economic and social development. The economic aspects of bases are, of course, not their major characteristics. Agreements for maintenance of bases are obviously predicated on a much broader basis and these agreements are continued or terminated on considerations in which economic benefits do not frequently play the major part. Saudi Arabia, which receives adequate foreign exchange from its large oil income, has asked the US to give up its huge base there. Morocco had earlier requested US termination of its bases. Direct Military and Defense Support Most of the economic aid today given to certain underdeveloped countries by major armed powers is tied directly to military use. US aid directly connected with military use has been totalling about $2.5 billion each year more than half the entire US outflow of aid for all purposes, which is just over $4 billion. In fiscal 1959 (1 July 1958 to 30 June 1959), fifty-five countries received economic aid tied to military assistance from the US. (Reference 4) G Survival of Countries and US Defense Support Money For some countries, the money supplied by US and tied to military use is vital to economic survival. Countries in this group are the Republic of Korea (South Korea), the Republic of China (Taiwan), Vietnam and Laos. In 1960 these countries, with the Philip- pines, Thailand and other Pacific allies received US aid totalling $1½ billion. The funds provided to Laos for military assistance exceeded the amount of the Laotian Kingdom's total money supply in 1960. (Reference 5) DISARMAMENT: IMPACT ON UNDERDEVELOPED COUNTRIES The Republic of China (Taiwan) has received $3.1 billion in this kind of aid since the government was established in Taiwan in 1949. Turkey had, from 1955 to 1958, re- ceived $431 million tied to US military support. All of these countries as well as Spain, Pakistan and Iran receive many forms of aid, although always directly and indirectly con- nected with US defense. Spain has received $1 billion in economic aid since 1953. Pakis- tan has received $1.3 billion in economic aid, in addition to $1 billion in military aid. Many alliances in which armed countries participate with underdeveloped countries also provide for civilian benefits to the latter. Civilian Benefits Flowing from Military Alliances The South-East Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) has as its members Australia, France, New Zealand, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand, the United Kingdom and the United States. Their agreement provides for projects which have included the establish- ment of the SEATO Graduate School of Engineering in Bangkok; programs aimed at improv- ing the supply of skilled labor in Pakistan, the Philippines and Thailand; a Cholera Re- search Project; a Meteorological Communication Project; and various scholarship, fellow- ship and professorship programs. (Reference 6) National Budget Sometimes Small in Relation to Aid The importance of aid tied to military use in relation to the total budgets of some of the countries aided can be seen from the fact that in 1960 the US gran ted $36.5 million to Jordan, which has a budget of $41.5 million. (Reference 7) That the assistance tied to bases, alliances and defense has a marked relationship to the survival of certain under- developed countries was recognized in the 1959 report of the Presidential Committee to Study the United States Military Assistance Program. This committee said: Economic assistance serves two main purposes: First, our own military defense requires effective forces in the hands of our friends and allies, INTERNATIONAL REVIEW SERVICE VOL. VII NO. 64 7 which, in turn, depend in large measure on the stability of the underlying economic base of the individual countries. Secondly, our security requires that both our allies and the uncommitted countries have an opportunity to solve their pressing economic problems within the framework of the free world. Without such an opportunity some of them would offer an easy tar- get for communism. They are not only being attracted by well contrived offers of assistance from the Communist bloc, but they are also impressed by the economic achievements of Russia and Communist China, without always fully understanding the real cost in human misery. We recognize that some of our military allies among the less developed countries are unable to support their part of the common military effort without economic defense support assistance. (Reference 8) The impact of US arms reduction on the economies of underdeveloped countries was pointed out in 1957 by William McChesney Martin, Jr., Chairman of the Federal Re- serve Board, who said: Just as a reduction in military outlays presents problems and challenges to our own economy, it would present similar problems and opportunities in many other countries.... For some countries...receipts of United States defense expenditures represented a relatively...important source of dollars. Less highly industrialized countries mainly in the Near East and Far East, who received about one-seventh of our defense expenditures abroad in fiscal 1956, would probably be most seriously affected by a reduction in United States outlays. (Reference 9) Provision of Arms to Underdeveloped Countries The premise of defense support now given by the big powers to underdeveloped countries is that this money enables the recipient to maintain a stable economy along with a large army. The US supplies this army with armaments and transport as well as the training required to handle them. In nearly all cases this aid is basic to the main- tenance of the armies of the underdeveloped countries and their positions locally. The USSR also provides military supplies and benefits to its allies. Arms have been provided 8 DISARMAMENT: IMPACT ON UNDERDEVELOPED COUNTRIES by the Soviet Union to all the members of the Warsaw Pact, Mainland China, Egypt, Syria, Afghanistan, Guinea, Cuba and many other countries. The country to which the USSR has delivered military aid most recently is Mor- occo, to which the US had been providing military assistance and in which the US main- tains bases. The USSR, in February 1961, delivered fourteen Soviet fighter planes to Morocco. Soviet assistance has enabled Mainland China, which produces small arms and ammunitions, to undertake the production of Soviet-type artillery, jet aircraft, tanks and submarines. (Reference 10) Disarmament will, of course, diminish or remove the need for these armies and armaments, releasing people and resources now involved. It is the transition period and the interim problems of income, employment and security for which provision must be made. This is particularly true because most other forms of economic aid now rendered by the major powers are also affected by the arms race, although not so directly linked. Non-Military Aid Also Predicated on Cold War Policy US policies of non-military aid for economic development derive from the basic US objective, since World War II, of confining the Soviet Union's power and influence within narrow limits. The place of non-military aid for economic development in this policy was de- scribed by President Eisenhower in his State of the Union Message of 5 January 1956: Because the conditions of poverty and unrest in less developed areas make their people a special target of international communism, there is a need to help them achieve the economic growth and stability necessary to preserve their independence against Communist threats and enticements. (Reference 11) President Eisenhower described not only US aid as being motivated by consider- INTERNATIONAL REVIEW SERVICE VOL. VII NO. 64 9 ations of communism but he also said that the non-military aid rendered by the USSR has similar motivation': tions. If the purpose of Soviet aid to any country were simply to help it overcome economic difficulties without infringing its freedom, such aid could be wel- comed as forwarding the free world purpose of economic growth. But there is nothing in the history of international communism to indicate this can be the case. Until such evidence is forthcoming, we and other free nations must assume that Soviet bloc aid is a new, subtle, and long-range instru- ment directed toward the same old purpose of drawing its recipient away from the community of free nations and ultimately into the Communist orbit. (Reference 12) - - Shifting Currents of Aid: Poland, Yugoslavia, UAR, Iraq The cold war motivations of aid offered by both protagonists are clearly seen in the record of the shifting of development funds made available by the US and the USSR to Poland, Yugoslavia, the United Arab Republic and Iraq. The US began to render large- scale economic assistance to Poland after the Polish uprisings of 1956. President John F. Kennedy, on 30 January 1961, speaking in the context of the US goal for freedom of the peoples in Eastern Europe, offered to broaden the existing aid being given to Poland. In Afghanistan and the United Arab Republic, USSR aid has played a large role in the promotion of neutralism. While the result of this aid has not been to make an outright Soviet ally of Afghanistan or the UAR, the West is not able to rely on the support of either country. Soviet aid to the Congo, directed, not through the UN, but given directly to the Lumumba government, and its large-scale help to Cuba have had obvious cold war motiva- Relationship of Cold War to Bargaining Power of Underdeveloped Countries Nowhere has the connection between the cold war and economic development aid shown up more clearly than in emerging Africa. After Guinea's break with France and 10 DISARMAMENT: IMPACT ON UNDERDEVELOPED COUNTRIES the West, the USSR became the largest supplier of aid to Guinea, its offers totaling $100 million. In 1960, the Secretary-General, the Security Council and the General Assembly asked that all aid for the troubled Congo be channelled through UN. This stand was sup- ported by the US, but was opposed by the late Premier Patrice Lumumba, who said: If the United States refuses to help us except through the United Nations, we will nevertheless accept aid from all sources....We are big enough and smart enough to keep the "cold war" out of the Congo without the United Nations. We will not be deceived. (Reference 13) Premier Lumumba's reaction to the UN proposal recognized the fact that the cold war and its concomitant arms race play a significant role in the bargaining power of cer- tain underdeveloped countries. [For analysis and review see IRS publications Congo and the United Nations: Volume One Chronology and Review of Events (VI/61), December 1960, and Volume Two - Analysis (VII/65), 1961.] A Cuba Conflict Stimulates New US Fund In its quarrel with the US, the Castro Government in Cuba turned to the USSR for help. The US had cut off its economic aid to Cuba as well as its purchases of sugar and other Cuban exports. The USSR took the place of the US in becoming Cuba's largest source of aid. The USSR, which views trade as part of its aid program, supplanted the US as the biggest purchaser of sugar and the chief supplier of petroleum and other goods. As the influence of the Castro movement - with its friendship for the USSR - grew in other Latin American countries, the US responded by creating, in July 1960, a $500 mil- lion program for the provision of capital to be used throughout Latin America in connection with social and land reform. Peru was outside the cold war area until the revolution in Cuba, and had previously received little aid. After Cuba had aligned itself with the USSR, - C INTERNATIONAL REVIEW SERVICE VOL. VII NO. 64 11 Peru was among the first of the countries in Latin America to be promised a large loan in the new US program. [For analysis and review see IRS publications Cuba and the United States, Vol. VI No. 60, December 1960; and Latin America, Vol. IV No. 48, November 1958.] Concern for Recipient Countries Sometimes Secondary Peru's position in Latin America can be compared to that of Liberia in Africa. Both countries are underdeveloped, with resources which need capital for development, and each has been, until recently, outside the big power area of cold war conflict. The capital for development made available to them and other countries in this position was meager compared to aid offered by both sides to Yugoslavia and Egypt, to Asian allies such as Thailand and Pakistan by the US, and by the USSR to Cuba. Peaceful Competition in Aid a Possibility Much of the aid granted for economic development has therefore had a direct re- lationship to the cold war. It may well be that this aid for economic development will, in the context of a world which has agreed to disarm, become the object of peaceful, rather than cold war competition. In this event, the total amount may not be reduced, but this fortunate situation should be safeguarded in advance. The total impact of all economic aid provided by the big armed countries is slight, however, compared to the importance of the income which underdeveloped countries re- ceive from the export of raw materials, an important percentage of which is used in arma- ments. Latin America, which in 1957 received $272 million of US economic aid, (Refer- ence 14) exported copper, iron ore, lead, petroleum and zinc to the US, for which it re- ceived $1,498 million. The prices at which these raw materials are sold are maintained at their present level in part because of the demand created by purchases by the military and for defense stockpiles. 12 DISARMAMENT: IMPACT ON UNDERDEVELOPED COUNTRIES Stockpiles The US imports 100 per cent of its natural rubber, tin and abaca, ninety-three per cent of its nickel and chrome, and eighty-five per cent of its manganese and bauxite for making aluminum. Cobalt, tungsten, copper and platinum are largely imported commodities. Wool and certain agricultural products are also in this category. Oil has always been an important import from underdeveloped countries. (Reference 15) Most of these commodi- ties are purchased for stockpiling in the big armed countries. The US stockpile of stra- tegic and critical materials represents an investment of over $8,000 million in other than farm commodities. Ceylon, in 1961, was reported facing a crisis in rubber because of the temporary cessation of British and US stockpile purchasing. Not only did the amount of rubber sold by Ceylon decrease, but the price per pound dropped below the cost of pro- duction. (Reference 16) Raw Materials for Arms Building and Maintenance Great as the sums involved in stockpiles are, even more is involved in the direct sale of raw materials to armaments manufacturers who are building, on government con- tract, planes or missiles. Tremendous amounts of oil, food products, wool, cotton and other materials are also purchased by armies for their daily use. The diminished markets resulting from the abandonment or constriction of stockpiling, the curtailment of the manu- facture of armaments and decreases in armed forces could cause big price drops, smaller sales with consequent loss of foreign exchange and a huge build-up of surpluses. The Chief of State of a country which depends for its foreign exchange on the sale of a commodity important to armaments put the problem in this way': If the USSR were to accept the West's disarmament proposals, the US would have a depression and it would survive it although it could last eighteen months. We will not last six months, deprived of our export revenue. INTERNATIONAL REVIEW SERVICE VOL. VII NO.64 13 Countries Dependent on Income from Raw Materials The problem of the size of the future market and the price of those raw materials now being bought by the developed countries from the underdeveloped countries for the making of armaments and the maintenance of armies can easily be demonstrated as critical. More than half of Bolivia's export earnings come from tin; over two-thirds of Chile's income is from copper; Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia and Malaya receive thirty to fifty per cent of their foreign exchange earnings from rubber. The Middle East coun- tries are almost entirely dependent on oil revenues and oil is one of the most vital neces- sities to armaments and armies. These and many other underdeveloped countries depend much more on their re- ceipts from sales of these and other primary commodities than on any other foreign revenue source. According to Paul Hoffman, Director of the UN Special Fund, earnings from export sales bring underdeveloped countries $38 billion at the present volume of sales and at the existing price level. Korean War End Caused Mighty Decline The Korean War was a shooting conflict, consuming vast amounts of raw materials, and therefore affected market prices more violently than does the arms race. Neverthe- less, the experience of the commodity and primary materials markets, once the fighting ceased, is illuminating. In the years following the end of the Korean war, the New York Journal of Commerce primary materials index dropped 51 per cent. Prices of some individ- ual commodities or materials, most particularly affected by the war, fell even more. (Refer- ence 17) Price Drops Cripple Underdeveloped Countries Price changes resulting from disarmament do not have to be as drastic as these to cripple many underdeveloped countries. A change of only five per cent in average export 14 DISARMAMENT: IMPACT ON UNDERDEVELOP ED COUNTRIES prices is almost equivalent to the entire amount of private and public capital and grants which come into underdeveloped countries in a year. (Reference 18) Between mid-1957 and mid-1958 there was a ten per cent decline in the average export prices of basic commodities. The loss to underdeveloped countries was equivalent to one-sixth of their gold and foreign exchange holdings, or to about six years lending to them by the World Bank. (Reference 19) Ambassador Adlai Stevenson, on 28 March 1961, speaking of the price drop of 1958, said that the loss of income to which the affected underdeveloped countries were subjected was equal to more than twice the amount of economic aid by the US in the same year. (Reference 20) Trade Also in Cold War Area The impact of disarmament in the future on the trade of the underdeveloped coun- tries is, of course, not yet felt, but trade is also definitely in the area of the cold war. Burma, faced with mounting resistance in selling its rice surplus in 1954, decided that US rice exports were a cause of its difficulties. The USSR and other Communist countries thereupon offered to buy a large portion of Burma's rice. This use of trade as cold war policy was again in evidence during the dispute in 1956 between Iceland and Britain over fishing rights, when the Soviet Union purchased Iceland's mounting surplus of fish. The Soviet Union has taken agricultural surpluses cotton from Egypt and wool from Uruguay - sending in return arms and other goods. The most recent instance in this area is the large-scale Soviet purchase of sugar from Cuba after the US stopped its pur- chases from that country. Effect on Standard of Living The greatest impact of a drop of export income would be on the standard of living INTERNATIONAL REVIEW SERVICE VOL. VI! NO. 64 15 of people in an underdeveloped country. The fabric of stability will be torn if the standard of living drops lower in underdeveloped countries and especially if the standard of living in the developed countries remains fairly high. Should the US and USSR solve the economic problems of converting from the arms race to disarmament while the underdeveloped coun- tries find no solution, new rounds of revolution, rather than peaceful evolution, are prob- able. PART II Political and Security Implications These are some of the economic factors. The political and security implications for underdeveloped countries are equally challenging. Underdeveloped countries are in- volved not only with the armaments and the armed strength of the cold war antagonists but also with those of other developed countries. Moreover, disarmament is a matter which has a vital interest for those underdeveloped countries which themselves maintain huge armies and rely on the implications of this internal armed strength to keep down in- ternal rebellion and to dissuade external enemies from attacking. Effects on Internal Status Quo The fact of military involvement with one or the other major cold war antagonist provides assurance for the continuation of the regimes of some underdeveloped countries. Both the SEATO and the CENTO Pacts provide for action in the event of internal subver- sion. In the case of Hungary, the Soviet forces based there used their might to install a government more favorable to the USSR than was the incumbent group. In all these cases there is no mistaking the meaning of the relationship of the armed strength of the cold war antagonists to the composition and maintenance of the governments of the underdeveloped countries. 16 DISARMAMENT: IMPACT ON UNDERDEVELOPED COUNTRIES I The maintenance of bases, the presence of outside military forces and the guarantee of financial support have tended to keep in power governments such as those ruling Taiwan, the Republic of Korea and Vietnam. Effect on Dictatorships This is especially true of dictatorships. The US acceptance of Francisco Franco as an ally and the US maintenance of bases and expenditures in Spain of $1.4 billion since 1953 have helped not only militarily and economically to support the Franco regime but have been a psychological factor in maintaining him internally. Dictatorships of one kind or another also exist in Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, Thailand, Portugal, the UAR and in com- munist countries. Armaments and the armed strength of the big two countries play a role in maintaining governments not reflecting the consent of the governed. Defense Arrangements Entrusted to Armed Powers Obviously, defense against external attack is a cardinal factor in all military al- liances. Taiwan is, by such an alliance, under the protection of the US in any conflict with Taiwan's avowed enemy, Mainland China. North Korea is similarly under the wing of the USSR in a fight against South Korea. Connections such as these between the power of the major country and the ability of these underdeveloped countries to defend them- selves are well known, involving Turkey, Iran, Laos, Vietnam and Vietminh, Hungary, Bulgaria, and others. In addition to these clear cold war situations, there are other less. obvious relationships in which big countries have assumed responsibility for the defense of smaller and weaker nations and areas. While many of these defense arrangements have their origins in colonialism, some have meaning in present day terms of protection against neighbors or other hostile coun- tries. Kuwait and Bahrein have placed responsibility for their defense on the UK. The A 'i INTERNATIONAL REVIEW SERVICE VOL. VII NO. 64 17 UK also plays a special role in the defense arrangements of British Commonwealth mem- bers. France has assumed defense responsibilities for the newly independent, French speaking nations in Africa. Big Power Might Part of Arsenal of Underdeveloped Countries Some arrangements of this type are spelled out in treaties and agreements, but a larger number are simply implied. There exists no specific agreement to guarantee that India if attacked by China, or Israel if attacked by the UAR, would get US help; or that Afghanistan if attacked by Pakistan, or Cuba if attacked by the Dominican Republic, would get USSR help. In all these cases the armed might of the protector - explicit explicit or implicit is presently a weapon in the arsenal of these underdeveloped countries and is as such a cardinal fact in the policy considerations of the underdeveloped countries concerned. In some highly publicized situations, the expressed threat of one or the other big armed country to come to the aid of an underdeveloped country, if attacked, has been used by the government of the underdeveloped country as one of its power assets. Egypt, dur- ing the Suez crisis, regarded the many USSR threats to use missiles in the event of attack as its great deterrent. Soviet threats to use missiles if the French, British and Israelis did not stop their invasion of the Suez in 1956 have been credited by Egypt with ending the aggression against it. Missiles Great Factor in Cuba: Impact of Threat to Use Force The Government of Cuba reiterates that the USSR has promised that any aggression against Cuba would be met by Soviet missiles. The Cuban Government credits these Soviet promises with keeping a direct US attack from its shores. It is the opinion of these and other underdeveloped countries that the survival of their regimes has depended on the capacity of a major power to make good on promises, such as these, to use force in their behalf if attacked. 18 DISARMAMENT: IMPACT ON UNDERDEVELOPED COUNTRIES This has been the case on occasions involving Turkey, Greece, Lebanon and Viet- nam. In these instances, the threat that the big, heavily armed power would come to the aid of an underdeveloped country has been used not only as an instrument of potential force, but as a means by which some underdeveloped countries have raised their status internally and among neighbors. i The promise that Soviet force might be used in behalf of the Government of Cuba has helped Premier Castro to unify his own people and has given his words an added significance with the peoples in the other countries of Latin America. Maintenance of Armies by Underdeveloped Countries The world is by no means in the situation where all the armaments are in the hands of the two big developed countries, or of the five countries (US, UK, France, Canada and USSR) which have historically participated in disarmament discussions. Among the developed countries, West Germany is potentially a major armed power and Italy and Belgium are not minor. Among the underdeveloped countries, many are armed. Mainland China maintains the largest army in the world, and all agree that no disarmament agreement could work unless China is part of it. India spends fifty per cent or more of its budget for defense. Fearing Pakistan and China, India maintains a huge army. Fear of Expansionism The fear of neighbors by some governments of underdeveloped countries has re- sulted in their maintaining huge armies in comparison with the size of their populations. Israel, fearful of Arab invasion, spends more than thirty-three percent of its income on de- fense, and maintains an army which is based on universal service of all its youth. The UAR and other middle-east Arab states similarly maintain huge and expensive defense establishments. INTERNATIONAL REVIEW SERVICE VOL. VII NO. 64 19 Big Underdeveloped Countries' Armies Supplied and Supported by Armed Countries Among the largest armies maintained by underdeveloped countries, other than China and India, are those of countries leagued in pacts with the cold war antagonists. Taiwan, South Korea and South Vietnam maintain armed forces of 600,000; 200,000; and 150,000, respectively. The financial support of these armies and the military equipment for them are a responsibility directly assumed by the US. It is reasonable to assume that on the Sino- Soviet side similar support maintains the large armies of North Korea and North Vietnam. $5,000 Million Yearly Spent on Arms by Underdeveloped Countries This is an area in which disarmament among the heavily armed nations would con- tribute to large-scale production of the size of armies in underdeveloped countries. How- ever, underemployment and unemployment are constant problems in the underdeveloped countries and provision would have to be made in advance for the transition of the people freed from military service into peaceful pursuits. In any event, at the present time, according to the USSR, underdeveloped countries are spending $5,000 million annually for military purposes. (Reference 21) It is hard to visualize all underdeveloped countries, no matter what the inducement, agreeing to dis- band their armies. Some believe that now, or the near future, is the time when they might use force or the threat of force to induce change for the better. Expansion and Consolidation Many underdeveloped countries are not satisfied with the status quo. Some be- lieve that the size of the areas which they control is too small. Some, and particularly newly emerging countries, are convinced that the colonial powers which set down their borders, separated ethnic groups which belong inside their countries. Morocco has de- clared that it should logically encompass Mauretania; Ethiopia takes the same position 20 DISARMAMENT: IMPACT ON UNDERDEVELOPED COUNTRIES concerning parts of Somalia; and there are many other examples of this in Latin America, the Middle East and Asia. Some underdeveloped countries think that now is a propitious time for them to as- similate contiguous areas which seem unable to govern themselves. The authorities of Congo (Leopoldville) claim that Ghana seeks to annex parts of their country. The Arabs say that they fear Israeli expansion into their countries, and Israel arms because of the fear that the Arab countries will seek to "push them into the sea," a threat often made. India and Pakistan arm against each other because each wants Kashmir. The Arms Suppliers to Underdeveloped Countries. Since underdeveloped countries other than the comparatively small capability of China, India, Israel and a few others have almost no arms industries of their own, all the S ܝ above situations require that outsiders supply the arms. Presently developed countries are supplying the arms to friendly governments - not linked in the security pacts. for defense and policing. The US supplies supplies, planes, vehicles and arms for this purpose to Tunisia and Guatemala; France supplies to Israel, Tunisia and Morocco; and the Soviet Group, especially the USSR and Czechoslovakia, supply complete armaments equipment to the UAR, Guinea and Cuba. Recently the USSR has supplied jet planes to Morocco. In practically all cases the supplying country supplies the credits and in a good many cases the country also supplies technicians. Ma Planes, Tanks and Guns for Underdeveloped Countries Governments are, however, not the only suppliers of planes, vehicles and arms to underdeveloped countries. The privately owned arms industries such as Bofors (Sweden), Krupp (West Germany), Schneider-Creusot (France), Vickers (UK), Du Pont (US) and others in Japan, Belgium and Switzerland are among the many companies which make direct sales to buyers from underdeveloped countries. In nearly all developed countries there are INTERNATIONAL REVIEW SERVICE VOL. VII NO. 64 21 interests dealing in used and obsolete armaments, perfectly good in the context of limited military action in underdeveloped areas. The sales of these armaments companies and those which sell air and ground transport are an important part of the present military pattern in underdeveloped countries. Curtailing Ability to Revolt The stoppage of sales of planes, trucks and arms by private companies and the halt in transfers of armaments by governments to underdeveloped countries would have many re- sults. Among these would be the cessation of the flow of weapons and military supplies to colonial peoples, now subjugated, seeking by force of arms to become independent. This would affect groups such as the FLN in Algeria which now gets its arms in part from China and the UAR, both recipients of arms from the Soviet group. The stoppage would also affect the ability of discontented peoples to mount a revolt in countries such as the Dominican Republic, Nicaragua and Cuba – all of which report internal attempts at rebellion. The Force of Numbers In some underdeveloped countries, such as Israel, a small population makes up in arms the strength which it lacks in numbers. Israel has a population of 2.05 million; the neighboring Arab countries have a population of forty million. A new equalizer in dis- parate relationships such as this is necessary, as it also is in the cases of Afghanistan and the USSR, Burma and Mainland China, and Guatemala and the US.. Search for Equalizers In a few of the underdeveloped countries technological progress has already been so great that it is clear that their nuclear potentials can be realized. This is particularly true of India, Israel and China. 22 DISARMAMENT: IMPACT ON UNDERDEVELOP ED COUNTRIES P These countries and some few others now participate somewhat in space research, tracking and in communications. This, like nuclear energy, has great convertibility to war since rockets need not carry nuclear warheads. The growing proficiency of some under- developed countries in these areas indicates that all nations, and especially those which are moving fastest in technology, must be brought into a world-wide disarmament inspec- tion system. Avenues Toward Solutions PART III This resolution': P I This examination of the scope and depth of the economic, social and political ef- fects on underdeveloped countries which might flow from any disarmament agreed upon by the major powers is in general terms. Enough is revealed to indicate the importance not only of further study of the possible effects of disarmament, but of the necessity for prep- aration of methods by which the governments of underdeveloped countries can participate in discussions. These methods would have the capability of providing underdeveloped countries with a voice in disarmament decisions vital to them and in creating a vehicle. for the protection of their interests. A beginning toward these ends was made when Pakistan, at the 1960 General As- sembly, sponsored a resolution titled "Economic and Social Consequences of Disarma- ment." Requests the Secretary-General to examine: (a) The national economic and social consequences of disarmament in different countries with different economic systems at different stages of economic development, including, in particular, the problems of replacing military expenditures with alternative private and public civil expenditures so as to maintain effective demand and to absorb the human and material resources released from military uses; INTERNATIONAL REVIEW SERVICE VOL. VII NO. 64 23 (b) The possible development of structural imbalances in national econo- mies as a result of the cessation of capital investment in armaments industries, and the adoption of possible corrective measures to pre- vent such imbalances, including expanding capital assistance to the underdeveloped countries; (c) The impact of disarmament on international economic relations, in- cluding its effect on world trade and especially on the trade of under- developed countries; (d) The utilization of resources released by disarmament, for the purpose of economic and social development, in particular of the underdevel- oped countries;... (For entire text of resolution see Appendix C) The lack of enthusiasm by big powers to undertake disarmament measures has in the past led to their support of studies as a substitute for the action they were hesitant to take. This may be the intention in this case. However, recognition of the implication of this study to underdeveloped countries could serve to broaden the scope of the resolution and harden the determination of the UN Secretariat to make an exhaustive rather than a cursory examination of the problems as they relate to underdeveloped countries. Big Power Promises While leaders of the great powers have not often recognized that the economic consequences of their disarmament might be very costly for underdeveloped countries, they have indicated that a part of their own savings, effected through cuts in their arms and armed forces, should go to speed economic development in the underdeveloped coun- tries. Promises of this kind have been made since 1953. In a speech to the American Society of Newspaper Editors on 16 April 1953, President Eisenhower said: This government is ready to ask its people to join with all nations in de- voting a substantial percentage of any savings achieved by real disarma- ment to a fund for world aid and reconstruction. France, too, supported this idea. At the Geneva Summit Conference in August 1954, - 24 DISARMAMENT: IMPACT ON UND ERDEVELOPED COUNTRIES Premier Edgar Faure proposed that money saved in disarmament be transferred into funds to finance economic development. Premier Khrushchev of the USSR has frequently voiced the same proposal and on 9 October 1959 the Soviet Union, presenting UN with the USSR disarmament proposals, stated: The appropriation of funds for military purposes in any form, whether from State budgets or from public organizations, shall be discontinued, which will permit the reduction or abolition of taxation of the population. The funds made avail- able as a result of the implementation of general and complete disarmament shall be used to subsidize national economies and to furnish extensive economic and technical assistance to under-developed countries. (Reference 22) President Eisenhower, on 13 October 1959, reiterated his position: No other aspiration dominates my own being so much as this: that the nations of East and West will find dependable, self-guaranteeing methods to reduce the vast and essentially wasteful expenditures for armaments, so that a part of the savings may be used in a comprehensive and effective effort for world improve- ment. (Reference 23) Redeeming the Promises All these promises that some disarmament savings will be used by the major pow- ers for economic development of underdeveloped countries are however vague and nebu- lous; they are anything but firm commitments. Despite the earlier linking of funds for economic development with savings from disarmament, the US, on 20 April 1960, said to the Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC): ...that a resolution by the council at this session linking the two subjects would not further either objective; it is more likely to be detrimental. (Refer- ence 24) This US stand was supported at the same time by the United Kingdom. Both felt that any spelling out of earlier promises should be delayed until disarmament had been achieved. INTERNATIONAL REVIEW SERVICE VOL VII NO.64 25 Tax Relief and Needed Public Works The big powers, even if sincere, face real problems in estimating what savings would remain for diversion into the economic development in underdeveloped countries. The needs of their own peoples for schools, hospitals, housing and public works have priority. Citizens now overburdened with taxes for carrying armaments and armies will demand and get tax relief. Nevertheless, underdeveloped countries want to participate in discussions on how much money is involved in these big power promises and when, where and under whose auspices the money will be spent. Economic Planning Essential If the signs can be believed, the transition period following disarmament may re- sult in retrogression for the underdeveloped countries rather than economic progress. Un- employment, closing down of mines and other facilities, constriction of exports and sharp drops in prices of commodities are not factors for development. The experience of underdeveloped countries in the past indicate what may be ex- pected. The wide fluctuation in prices of exports has on many occasions made economic planning difficult, and the drops in prices of commodities have decreased the income available for development. US Ambassador Stevenson, in March 1961, related these experiences of underde- veloped countries to a need for the creation of some apparatus by which such losses of income could be avoided. Ambassador Stevenson said: We have been very preoccupied with commodity stabilization both because it is the only means by which these smaller countries that are dependent on raw material exports can maintain any increase in the standard of living and in the economy but it is always very important to use because it makes our aid go much further. (Reference 25) 26 DISARMAMENT: IMPACT ON UND ERD EVELOPED COUNTRIES Under conditions where the US would be disarming, not only commodity price stabilization but the maintenance of a market big enough to absorb the production of the underdeveloped countries would be required. The Economic Development Problem Were problems such as these to be brought under control, attention could again be concentrated on economic development. The underdeveloped countries comprise a popula- tion of 1,250 million people in 100 countries. Paul Hoffman, Director of the UN Special Fund estimates the development need, in terms of foreign exchange of these peoples and countries, at forty-five billion dollars in the next ten years, most of which would come from sales of exports. Mr. Hoffman does not believe the remaining sum, less than ten billion dollars, to be large. He says': What is that figure compared to the one thousand billion dollars, let me repeat that, one thousand billion dollars, that will, at the present rate, be spent in the next ten years by our advanced countries on defense, on armaments. According to the USSR, the five billion dollars now being spent by underdeveloped countries on arms each year would, if redirected, lead to a rise of one-third in the standards of living in the underdeveloped countries. (Reference 26) The 1960 General Assembly debates brought forth many other comparisons of the kind made by Mr. Hoffman and the representatives of the Soviet Union. Here are some examples': The highly developed countries spend on armaments a sum equal to the total production of the underdeveloped countries. One tenth of the production of our planet is being thrown into funds earmarked for destruction and devastation instead of being directed towards the advance- ment and progress of mankind. The world spends at least 100 billion dollars per year on armaments, while the industrialized countries have in the last ten years spent only about 40 billion dollars on aid, assistance, investments, etc., for the underdeveloped areas of the world. INTERNATIONAL REVIEW SERVICE VOL VII NO.64 27 The fact that the cost of a single B-17 super-bomber is equal to the total assistance extended through the United Nations for the development of underdeveloped countries in the course of one year points clearly to the urgent need of abandoning the course now being pursued. The allocation of only one tenth of the funds which the great Powers are spending for military purposes today would increase the amount of assist- ance to underdeveloped countries by ten billion dollars a year. Unfortunately most of these comparisons - and this is also true of those made by Messrs. Khrushchev, Eisenhower and Faure - are based on the illusion that when a gov- ernment stops spending on armaments it will make the money saved available for develop- ment. The reality is that the bulk of the money will, in the event of disarmament, simply not continue to exist since the need of governments to create currency or incur debt to pay for armaments will not exist. UN Charter Provision Doubt on Conversion to Economic Development There is, however, no doubt but that the freeing of even a tiny part of the re- sources and manpower now going into defense and preparation for war could be used for development which would raise the standard of living throughout the underdeveloped coun- tries and make the deserts bloom and the salt water sweet. Korea maintains an army of 600,000 and the countries receiving US defense support funds have three million of their own nationals under arms. There exists a great reservoir of manpower, if there is any- thing for them to do. These aspects of planning must proceed side by side with consider- ation of disarmament. (Reference 27) Planning of this kind is in accord with basic UN objectives. In the preamble of the Charter is set down the goal of promoting "social progress and better standards of living in larger freedom," using "international machinery for the promotion of the - 28 DISARMAMENT: IMPACT ON UNDERDEVELOPED COUNTRIES economic and social advancement of all peoples...' The problem is to implement this aspiration while providing protection for all concerned against potential economic and political aggressors. (Reference 28) The Political Necessities The removal of the protection of the large, armed countries from smaller, weaker that of the US from Formosa or that of the USSR from East Germany may have grave consequences. Or if under "complete and general disarmament" the power of strong indigenous armies - as the large armies of the UAR, Israel or India – is re- moved, then the question arises of what will take its place. As part of disarmament programs and planning, problems facing underdeveloped countries of defense against ex- ternal aggression, subversion and propaganda mounted from without, and protection against economic warfare must all receive continuing consideration. countries C Equal Voice in UN No defense for underdeveloped countries, in the event of disarmament, can be visualized outside the framework of a world organization. If this is to be the United Nations, the organs of UN, including the Secretariat, must be remodeled to provide better representation for underdeveloped countries. The demand for this has already been heard. During the 1960 General Assembly debates, African and Asian states asked for better representation. Nigeria said that the African states wanted all members of the UN to be able to participate effectively in its work; they wanted to be represented on the executive organs. The representative of Nigeria said that he believed the great powers should think less of their greatness and agree to the new states taking part in the adoption of economic, social and political decisions; otherwise the presence of the Afro-Asian countries would be meaningless. (Reference 29) INTERNATIONAL REVIEW SERVICE VOL. VII NO. 64 29 Problems of Peaceful Change The UN has up to now made little provision for solving certain kinds of political problems among underdeveloped countries which seem bound to arise in the event of dis- armament. These problems encompass a wide range including revision of borders, ethnic and other adjustments up to and including the substitution of one kind of political, social or economic setup for another. Involved here are also the problems of the creation of new states out of existing countries and the suppression of states no longer viable. The UN has not, as yet, discussed the bringing of tribal conflicts under control or what to do to alleviate the pressure of growing populations to expand into neighboring areas. Redistribution of ownership of, and rights and access to, natural resources is in- evitable and already raises problems, as do punitive but peaceful economic measures such as the embargoes placed on imports from an underdeveloped country by a developed coun- try which might also, for the same reasons, remove its capital from the underdeveloped country. There remain a gamut of problems relating to air space and to offshore fishing, drilling rights and boundaries. The problems culminate in the requirement that the UN have the prestige and the strength necessary to gain acceptance for its solutions. Defense and Police Protection At the core of all the political problems raised by disarmament is that which con- cerns the international system of defense and police protection which will guarantee the security of the underdeveloped countries in a world where the big countries are disarmed. If the underdeveloped countries themselves are to disarm such a system must not only be in place but enjoy their trust. This trust will come only if there exists, side by side with the defense system, inspection machinery on which each underdeveloped country can rely for assurance that potentially dangerous neighbors or more distant aggressive countries are not secretly arming themselves in preparation for surprise attack or arming dissidents 30 DISARMAMENT: IMPACT ON UNDERDEVELOPED COUNTRIES to rise and capture power. Venezuela fears that Cuba is arming Venezuelan dissidents along these lines and Cuba fears the continued US arming of Cuban dissidents to capture power from Castro. UN Peace Force Systems of UN defense and inspection which could provide the underdeveloped countries with assurance and security do not, of course, yet exist. There have, however, been many proposals for the creation of a UN force which would be able to keep the peace. As visualized, this type of force would be separate from any inspection apparatus estab- lished under disarmament agreements. In recent years, ideas for a permanent force have generally been based on the precedent of the UN Emergency Force (UNEF), which was created as a direct outgrowth of the crisis which resulted from the invasion of Egypt by Israel, Britain and France in the last days of October 1956. UNEF, however, was a specially created organization for a specific job and not a general security organization charged with the problems of maintaining peace throughout the world. Also, UNEF went into Egypt by agreement with Egypt, and an aggressor is not likely to grant UN permission to establish itself on the scene. "Window Pane" Concept of UNEF The UNEF concept is that of a force functioning as a "window pane" interposed between two potential antagonists. An aggressor on either side would have to shatter the "window pane" and so alert the world to go into action against the aggressor. This inter- position provides a satisfactory method where two known antagonists need to be separated, but the method does not apply in places where there have been no hostilities and therefore no demarcated border of conflict. Similarly, UNEF has no police function and it was created by the UN General INTERNATIONAL REVIEW SERVICE VOL. VII NO. 64 31 Assembly and not by the Security Council which is, under the UN Charter, the only organ charged with the responsibility for peaceful settlement of disputes. (Reference 30) Congo Force as Model for Peace Force The Congo Force (ONUC) differs from UNEF in that it was created by the Security Council and has a police function. ONUC however came into being to put down disorders; it was not sent in at an early date to prevent disorders from occurring. A UN force would have to be intent on preventing border incursions and protecting against internal subver- sion supported from without. Aside from the obvious dangers of possible invasions of sovereignty involved in any force provided by UN to a nation, both the police force and the peace force share a political weakness which has already been demonstrated in ONUC. Governments which initially contributed soldiers to ONUC have found themselves in political disagreement with UN, or favoring one or another faction inside the Congo. Countries have, on these grounds and also because they have disagreed with the Secretary-General's handling of the crisis, withdrawn their soldiers. A breakdown such as this could leave UN too weak to defend any country, or could lead to political solutions unwanted by the host govern- ment. Answers to these questions raised by recent experience seem to lead away from national contributions and toward creation of a UN force of individual soldiers, who would serve as UN civil servants now do. Objections to Peace Force Proposals for a permanent international peace force have, in the past, been met by other objections. Prominent among these have been the objections of the USSR, which has feared western domination of a UN army. Other arguments against a UN force are that it might be used by a UN majority against a minority. Small nations, particularly those until recently under colonial domination, also fear that big powers - either East or West - in 32 DISARMAMENT: IMPACT ON UNDERDEVELOPED COUNTRI ES control of UN might use an international police force to their own advantage and to the detriment of weaker countries. Inspection System Even with international police and peace forces in operation, the problem of in- spection remains, and it encompasses what goes on in the underdeveloped countries. Some underdeveloped countries have considerable arms manufacturing capability, and others, such as Mainland China, Israel and India, have the technological knowledge and the re- actors with which atomic weapons can be made. All countries, developed or not, have the ability to secrete arms or nuclear weapons; planes anywhere can quickly be converted from peace to war. Inspection, in the light of these obvious facts, must be universal and the inspection force international in composition and allegiance. The Widening of Horizons. Many of the problems ahead will only be seen as the discussion of the terms of a disarmament agreement exposes new horizons. In relation to the underdeveloped coun- tries, knowledge concerning the tasks of the future in a disarmed world can be compared with the problems of old age. These could not have been known until man's life span increased. The Great Prize For the underdeveloped country the prize of disarmament is, in the last analysis, the creation of a system of world law which will protect the aspirations of the weak and the less fortunate and which will nurture the hopes of the newly emerging countries. Disarmament discussions are today centered on the great nations, as perhaps they must have been up to now. The discussions of the great nations are preoccupied INTERNATIONAL REVIEW SERVICE VOL. VII NO. 64 33 with whether there shall be "complete and general disarmament," disarmament without control, control without decrease in armaments, or some solution which involves parts of these. All the formulations are being considered primarily in the light of the interests of the major countries. Solutions are being sought through research relating to discussions. about regulation, inspection, detection, protection and the other manifold technical prob- lems which are tied in with disarmament. These technical problems are in process of be- coming a special science. Concern for these technical problems should not be used to obscure the necessity for keeping underdeveloped countries safe from collapse. The stability of the underdevel- oped countries, without whom there can be no security for any country, depends on recogni- tion of the political, social and economic impacts of disarmament on underdeveloped coun- tries, on measures taken promptly to safeguard their transition, and on the participation of underdeveloped countries in disarmament discussions at every level. 1 REFERENCES 1. Procurement Study, Hearings (Part I) before the Procurement Subcommittee of the Committee on Armed Services, U.S. Senate, 8 and 9 February 1960, p. 23. 2. Statistical Abstract of the United States: 1960 (Eighty-first edition), U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C., 1960, p. 242; and Background Material on Economic Aspects of Military Pro- curement and Supply, Joint Economic Subcommittee on Defense Procurement, U.S. Congress, 16 February 1960, p. 20. 3. Department of Defense Civilian Personnel Within and Outside the United States, Office of the Secretary of Defense, 29 December 1959. 4. The Mutual Security Program, Fiscal Year 1959, U.S. Department of State, U.S. Department of Defense and International Cooperation Administration, February 1958. 5. Wall Street Journal, 25 January 1961. 6. SEATO Record of Progress: 1959-1960, The South-East Asia Treaty Organization, Bangkok, 1960. 7. The New York Times, 27 February 1961. 8. “Preliminary Conclusions" of Presidential Committee to Study the United States Military Assist- ance Program, Washington, 17 March 1959; as reprinted in The New York Times, 18 March 1959. 9. Martin, William McChesney, Jr., Testimony before the Subcommittee on Disarmament of the Com- mittee on Foreign Relations, U.S. Senate, 7 March 1957. 10. Comparisons of the United States and Soviet Economies, Prepared by the U.S. Central Intelli- gence Agency with the Department of State and the Department of Defense, for the Subcommittee on Economic Statistics of the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress, 17 June 1960, p. 23. 11. Eisenhower, Dwight D., State of the Union Message, joint session of U.S. Congress, Washington, D.C., 5 January 1956; as reprinted in The New York Times, 6 January 1956. 12. Eisenhower, Dwight D., from statement by Douglas Dillon before the Committee on Foreign Re- lations, U.S. Senate, 3 March 1958, as reprinted in the U.S. Department of State Bulletin, Vol. XXXVIII, No. 978. 13. Lumumba, Patrice, statement in Leopoldville; as reprinted in The New York Times, 7 August 1960. 14. Statistical Abstract. . ., op. cit., p. 873. 15. Comparisons of the United States and Soviet Economies, op. cit., p. 45. 16. The New York Times, 14 January 1961; 11 February 1961. 17. Journal of Commerce, 29 March 1961. - 35 - REFERENCES, Continued 18. Economic Survey of Asia and the Far East, 1957, United Nations, Bangkok, 1958. 19. Commodity Survey, 1958, United Nations, New York, 1959. 20. Stevenson, Adlai E., US Mission to the UN, Press Release No. 3677, 28 March 1961. 21. Official Records of the One Thousand One Hundred and Ninth Meeting of the UN Economic and Social Council, New York, 20 April 1960, pp. 81-82. 22. Verbatim Record of the One Thousand and Twenty-Sixth Meeting of the First Committee, UN General Assembly, 9 October 1959. UN document A/C.1/PV.1026. 23. Verbatim Record of the One Thousand and Twenty-Seventh Meeting of the First Committee, UN General Assembly, 14 October 1959. UN document A/C.1/PV.1027. 24. Phillips, Christopher H., US Mission to the UN, Press Release No. 3388, 20 April 1960. 25. Stevenson, Adlai E., op. cit. 26. Sobolev, Arkady, UN Economic and Social Council, Press Release ECOSOC/1780; Pro- visional Summary Record of the One Thousand One Hundred and Ninth Meeting of the Economic and Social Council, 20 April 1960. UN document PSR/ECOSOC/1109. 27. The Mutual Security Program..., op. cit., p. 38. 28. Charter of the United Nations, United Nations, Department of Public Information, New York. 29. Summary Record of the Two Hundred and Seventeenth Meeting of the Special Political Com- mittee, UN General Assembly, 5 December 1960. UN document A/SPC/SR.217. ļ 30. The United Nations Emergency Force, Vol. III No. 33, International Review Service, New York, May 1957; and UNEF, Vol. II, International Review Service, New York, November 1956. - 36 - APPENDIX A: ARMED FORCES ESTIMATES OF NATO, WARSAW PACT & OTHER EUROPEAN COUNTRIES Belgium...... Canada Denmark United States France United Kingdom Iceland Italy...... Western Germany Greece.... Country Norway Portugal Turkey.. NATO Luxembourg Netherlands ... 5 Has announced cut of 9,000. 6 Has announced cut of 18,000. SOURCE: .... 7 Has announced cut of 34,000. 8 Has announced cut of 20,000. 9 Has announced cut of 47,000. 10 Has announced cut of 40,000. Estimate of present armed forces based on published sources 1 2,814,632 752,800 2772,000 140,000 116,000 41,000 (3) 11 127,300 None 268,000 3,000 39,100 33,000 73,090 422,750 WARSAW PACT COUNTRIES U.S.S.R...... Albania ..... Bulgaria..... Czechoslovakia East Germany. Hungary. Poland Rumania …………… Country - OTHER EUROPEAN STATES Austria Finland Ireland..... Spain Sweden...... Switzerland Yugoslavia *** GRAD - 37 - •••• 556,300 Estimates based on sources available to the public as of June 1956. Cong. Rec. July 26, 1956, p. 13414. 2 Reductions planned. 3 Goal of 500,000. The new West German Defense Minister, appointed in October 1956, is reported to favor a goal of about 300,000 men, rather than the 500,000 planned by NATO. New York Times, October 17, 1956: 1; October 18, 1956: 32. Estimate of present armed forces based on published sources 1 ***** • 4 Estimate of size of Soviet forces if the announced reductions were carried out. Special assistant to the President on Disarmament, July 13, 1956. 42,900,000 555,000 6183,500 7225,000 113,500 8172,500 9570,000 10172,500 6,500 38,500 13,060 461,000 73,500 "CONTROL AND REDUCTION OF ARMAMENTS: DISARMAMENT AND SECURITY IN EUROPE, STAFF STUDY NO.5, SUBCOMMITTEE ON DISARMAMENT OF THE COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS; 84TH CONGRESS, SECOND SESSION; WASHINGTON 1956. APPENDIX B: GOVERNMENT DEFENSE EXPENDITURES IN RELATION TO TOTAL BUDGET Country by Country, 1952-57 Country NATO COUNTRIES United States France United Kingdom Belgium Canada Denmark West Germany Greece Italy Netherlands Norway Portugal Turkey WARSAW PACT COUNTRIES USSR Albania Bulgaria Czechoslovakia East Germany Hungary Poland Romania MIDDLE EAST COUNTRIES Egypt Iran Iraq Israel Jordan Lebanon Syria (Figures on defense and armaments expenditures are not strictly comparable since governments do not always classify expenditures under readily identifiable headings. It is also not possible to make accurate comparisons between total budgets of countries some of which reflect expenditures capital outlay, social and welfare, etc. — not assumed by other governments.) India Japan Pakistan Philippines Thailand Australia New Zealand Argentina Brazil Mexico Spain Yugoslavia South Africa Estimated Population Mid -1955 (in 1000's) 165,271 43,274 51,215 8,868 15,601 4,439 49,995 7,973 48,016 10,751 3,425 8,765 24,122 200,200 1,394 7,548 13,089 16,700 9,805 27,278 (53)17,000 22,934 21,146 5,200 1,748 1,427 1.425 4,145 OTHER COUNTRIES China-Mainland 582,000 381,690 89,100 82,439 21,849 20,302 9,201 2,136 19,111 58,456 29,679 28,976 17,628 13,669 Figures Given for Years Ending 30 June 31 Dec. 30 Nov. 31 Dec. 31 Mar. 31 Mar. 31 Mar. 30 June 30 June 31 Dec. 30 June 31 Dec. 28 Feb. 31 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 Ded. 31 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 Dec. 30 June 20 March 30 April 31 March 31 March 31 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 March 31 March 31 March 30 June 31 Dec. 30 June 31 March 31 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 Mar. Figures Expressed In millions of US $ thousand millions of francs millions of E millions of francs millions of dollars millions of kroner millions of Deutsche mark thousand millions of drachma thousand millions of lira millions of guilder millions of kroner millions of escudos millions of Turkish millions of rubles millions of lek millions of leva millions of korunas millions of Deutsche mark millions of forints millions of zloty millions of leu millions of Egypt. millions of rials millions of dinar millions of Israeli E millions of Jordan dinars millions of Lebanese ₺ millions of Syrian millions of Yuan millions of rupees thousand millions of yen millions of rupees millions of pesos millions of baht millions of Aus. E millions of N.Z. E millions of pesos millions of cruzieros millions of pesos millions of pesetas millions of dinars millions of S. A. E Rate of Ex- Gross Natl. change for Product 1955 US Dollar 38 ! 350 .36 50 (av.).97 6.9 4.2 30 625 3.8 7.14 28.75 2.8 4 50 6.8 (1954-56) 7.2 2.2 12 4 6 CO .35 (1955-57) 75 .36 (1955-) 1.8 .36 (Free Rate) 3.2 3.58 2.34 4.76 360 4.76 2 20 .45Ե .36 E 18 18.5 12.5 42 300 .36 391700 16790 19101 ('54)430000 26770 27670 154000 13639 29 260 234 20 51800 20559 111 │! ! ! ! ! ('54)1830 ('54)114800 7424 8865 ('54)31860 4760 929 ('54)553200 84000 Note: Exchange rates quoted do not necessarily reflect the relation of pur- chasing power of the national currency to that of the United States dollar. Unless listed as estimate or free rate, exchange rates used in this table are based or the 26th Annual Report of the Bank for International Settlements, Baale. 1957. 1952 Total Gov't. Defense Expenditure Expenditure 65408 3720 4704 90025 3635 4206 18530 8130 2262 5045 3230 5694 1580 460 200 9615 (BE)42500 29000 209 } 33 196 13 88 266 16322 6707 1815 635 4264 748 172 15365 28461 6464 22718 253 43976 1389 1110 21286 1415 531 7915 2657 404 1177 708 1168 470 108600 (BE)1122 (BE)5900 5000 44 1 8 55 9 18 105 4278 1850 858 182 844 165 18 3320 9257 434 7540 24 APPENDIX B (CONTINUED) 1953 1954 1956 Total Gov't. Total Gov't. Total Gov't.] Defense Total Gov't.] Defense Defense Total Gov't. Expenditure Expenditure Expenditure Expenditure Expenditure Expenditure Expenditure Expenditure Expenditure Expenditure Defense Defense 74274 3275 5007 94419 4232 4718 20623 7531 2529 5692 4043 6244 1751 (BE)86200 49000 (BE)97000 35600 186 | 514800 (BE)110200 (BE)552800 (BE)100300 10010 15800 (BE)1125 9000 (BE) 2100 (BE)17000 (BE)1100 (BE) 1900 51 265 13 100 (PR)196 23350 6946 868 1997 660 4862 825 183 16417 39925 5490 23930 50363 1292 1404 19303 1882 682 7892 2702 280 439 1324 1033 1456 500 36 (BE)8400 (BE) 87600 35400 82000 (BE) 47900 (BE) 10400- 116500 6800 (BE)39300 14 46 9 21 (PR)66 67772 3241 4847 46904 1090 1364 95793 (EST)18079 1806 4239 5144 870 20060 5522 9838 3375 2330 451 6019 1595 1170 1791 711 5225 1887 135 961 167 940 203 26 3775 11260 479 7389 4380 6510 2394 23 (E) 175 (E) 12456 61 356 15 125 (PR)221 24632 7677 999 1992 787 5273 788 194 18117 53661 48 28 27190 307 (BE)7787 (E) 39 (E) 2544 16 50 10 22 (PR)76 1955 4246 13458 650 7963 66386 40478 (E) 1180 (E)4127 (PR)5253 (PR)1405 (E) 102350|(EST)19154| (DE)95017| (DE)19459 (PR)4311 (PR) 1740 (RE)960 (RE)5378 6105 (E)3960 478 (RE)1766 (E)928 22512 (E)13084 2783 (RE)7274 (E)4297 (E)7433 (E) 1952 (E)725 (E) 2976 220 64570 3464 4997 (BE)86039 (BE) 10430 36100 (BE)7200 43100 7800 10900 (BE)115000 (BE)11900 (BE)4300 (BE)43000 (BE)4500 4152 5558 20932 11221 2489 (PR)6940 4345 (E) 7133 2654 (E) 195 (DE)17943 (E) 77 512 (E) 18 5814 (EST) 29737 1939 9345 165 1052 769 1853 160 854 944 4978 170 28 832 (PR)200 (E) 13828 (E) 56695 (E) 5681 (E) 31956 (E) 148 (E) 261 40626 906 1436 1666 993 5893 3720 448 (PR) 1689 1141 (E) 1960 834 322 1500 (BE)13800| 1800 (BE)17600 (E) 54 (DE)3978 (E) 17 539500 (BE) 105000 (BE)569600 (BE)10 2500 (BE)604600 (BE 96700 10600 17000 (BE)1100 (BE)14900 (BE)1500 (BE)18400 (BE)1000 (BE)1500 60 (E) 10 (E) 24 (E) 81 (EST)7193 1979 161 683 148 855 173 (PR)24 (E) 2621 (E) 12212 (E) 678 (E) 8474 - 39 · 20 (E) 209 (E) 14844 (E) 112 (PR) 663 (E) 18 (E) 160 (RE)11648 (RE) 1033 (RE) 2511 (RE) 1042 (E) 5893 908 (E) 13828 (E) 71505 (E) 6696 (E) 35833 (PR)320 This table was prepared by Intemational Review Service with statistics from the following sources; United Nations Statistical Yearbook, 1956; United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, Yearbooks and Bulletins; International Financial Statistics published by the Intemational Monetary Fund, and The New York Times. (E) 55 (DE) 4500 (E) 15 (BE)89887 (BE)9300 (BE)9606 (BE)97900 (BE)35500 (BE)1000 (BE)39100 (BE)1000 (BE)42100 (BE)6000 (BE)136700 (BE)12100 (BE)138800 (BE)10200 (BE)44400 (BE)4000 (BE)45200 (BE)3700 (PR)59 (E) 10 (E) 30 ¡ (RE)2078 (RE)142 (RE)884 (RE)153 (E) 8 20 190 1957 (E) 69093 (E) 2621 (E) 18563 (E) 779 (E) 9538 |(BE)158500 (PR) 22 (E) 5766 (E) 4396 (E)5298 (E) 3 2062 (DE) 2983 (E)6885 (E)4809 (E) 33 25 (E) 19865 PR RE (E) 250 DE BE E Est. (E) 637 (E) 14338 (E) 1068 (DE) 2987 (DE) 1210 11 (E)40824 (E) 1499 (E) 358 (E) 1775 (E) 962 (E)11902 (DE)511 (E)1446 (E)912 (E) 785 (E) 75 (E)5871 (E) 72 | | (RE) 2330 (E) 168 (DE) 1057 (DE) 137 8 1111 (E) 190 (BE)158500 (E) 25 CODE Provisional results Revised estimates Draft estimates Budget estimates Voted estimates Estimated figures APPENDIX C: GA RESOLUTION ON THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES OF DISARMAMENT A/RES/1516 (XV) THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY • RECALLING ITS RESOLUTION 1378 (XIV) OF 20 NOVEMBER 1959, CONSCIOUS THAT THE IMPACT OF DISARMAMENT IS LIKELY TO SET IN MOTION GREAT CHANGES IN THE DOMESTIC ECONOMIES OF STATES AND IN INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC RELATIONS, AS A RESULT OF THE PROGRESSIVE DIVERSION OF HUMAN AND MATERIAL RESOURCES FROM MILITARY TO PEACEFUL PURPOSES, RECOGNIZING THAT EFFECTIVE ACTION AT THE NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL LEVELS WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN TO MAKE USE OF MATERIAL AND HUMAN RESOURCES BECOMING AVAILABLE AS A CONSEQUENCE OF DISARMAMENT, IN ORDER TO PROMOTE SOCIAL PROGRESS AND BETTER STANDARDS OF LIVING IN THE WORLD, BEARING IN MIND THE IMPORTANCE OF COMPREHENSIVE AND SYSTEMATIC STUDIES IN THIS FIELD TO ENABLE MEMBER STATES, ESPECIALLY THOSE WHICH ARE UNDER-DEVELOPED, TO MAKE THE NECESSARY ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL ADJUSTMENTS IN THE EVENT OF DISARMAMENT, CONVINCED THAT IT IS BOTH TIMELY AND DESIRABLE TO UNDERTAKE SUCH STUDIES, 1. REQUESTS THE SECRETARY-GENERAL TO EXAMINE: (A) THE NATIONAL ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES OF DISARMAMENT IN COUNTRIES WITH DIFFERENT ECONOMIC SYSTEMS AND AT DIFFERENT STAGES OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING, IN PARTICULAR, THE PROBLEMS OF REPLACING MILITARY EXPENDITURES WITH ALTERNATIVE PRIVATE AND PUBLIC CIVIL EXPENDITURES SO AS TO MAINTAIN EFFECTIVE DEMAND AND TO ABSORB THE HUMAN AND MATERIAL RESOURCES RELEASED FROM MILITARY USES; (B) THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF STRUCTURAL IMBALANCES IN NATIONAL ECONOMIES AS A RESULT OF THE CESSATION OF CAPITAL INVESTMENT IN ARMAMENTS INDUSTRIES, AND THE ADOPTION OF POSSIBLE CORRECTIVE MEASURES TO PREVENT SUCH IMBALANCES, INCLUDING EXPANDED CAPITAL ASSISTANCE TO THE UNDER-DEVELOPED COUNTRIES; (c) THE IMPACT OF DISARMAMENT ON INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC RELATIONS, INCLUDING ITS EFFECT ON WORLD TRADE AND ESPECIALLY ON THE TRADE OF UNDER- DEVELOPED COUNTRIES; THE UTILIZATION OF RESOURCES RELEASED BY DISARMAMENT FOR THE PURPOSE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT, IN PARTICULAR OF THE UNDER-DEVELOPED COUNTRIES; 2. RECOMMENDS THAT THE SECRETARY-GENERAL SHOULD CONDUCT THE PROPOSED EXAMINATION WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF EXPERT CONSULTANTS TO BE APPOINTED BY HIM WITH DUE REGARD TO THEIR QUALIFICATIONS AND TO THE NEED OF GEOGRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION AND INTIMATE KNOWLEDGE OF COUNTRIES WITH DIFFERENT ECONOMIC SYSTEMS AND AT DIFFERENT STAGES OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT; 3. APPEALS TO GOVERNMENTS OF MEMBER STATES TO GIVE FULL CO-OPERATION TO THE SECRETARY-GENERAL IN THE FULFILLMENT OF THE TASK ENTRUSTED TO HIM; 4. REQUESTS THE SECRETARY-GENERAL TO SUBMIT A PRELIMINARY REPORT ON THE RESULTS OF THE EXAMINATION TO THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COUNCIL AT ITS THIRTY- THIRD SESSION; (0) 5. REQUESTS THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COUNCIL TO TRANSMIT THE REPORT WITH ITS VIEWS TO THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY AT ITS SEVENTEENTH SESSION. 40 - 948TH PLENARY MEETING, 15 DECEMBER 1960. Sisal & Evergreen Carpet Wool Beryllium Manganese⭑ Nickel Tungsten Zinc THE US IMPORTS A LARGE % OF MANY VITAL RAW MATERIALS Lead Iron Ore APPENDIX D: RAW MATERIALS FROM UNDERDEVELOPED 0% *35% or more Ma COUNTRY SOURCES 50% - 41 - Mexico Argenting Brazi Brazil Cuba Brazil: 100% 0% Peru SHARE FROM LATIN AMERICA Mexico Mexico Venezuel UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN Mexico Peru 3 9015 06552 4137 Brazil Haiti Bolivia Argentina Chile TAB Peru 50% 100% Source: U. S. Department of Commerce 7 į. !. !! 1. }: : >