JK 421 I' H no. 2 B 1,674,149 The Inter-University Case Program Cases in Public Administration and Policy Formation .. ICP CASE SERIES: NUMBER 2 • • Martin Kriesberg UNIVERSIT. OF MICHIGAN MAY 1. Cancellation of the Ration Stamps Distributed for the ICP by UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA PRESS Drawer 2877, University, Alabama • 1001 LIBRARY, I 1. The Inter-University Case Program was organized to encourage and promote the use of case studies as an aid to the teaching and practice of public administra- tion and policy formation. Its objectives are: 2. ; 3. 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Information on ICP publica- tions appears on the inside back cover. Inquiries may be addressed to The Inter-University Case Program, No.3 Thomas Circle, Washington 5, D. C. Cancellation of the Ration Stamps Copyright, 1952, by Harcourt, Brace and Company, Inc., New York All rights reserved 7 : * خشتے 3-15.59 N GL Econ Direct 1.1356 38-1166 JK 421 . Ib no.2 CANCELLATION OF THE RATION STAMPS CONTENTS DEVELOPMENT OF THE OPA FOOD RATIONING PROGRAM 1944 FOOD PROSPECTS AND INDEFINITE VALIDITY THE FALL CRISIS THE DECEMBER CRISIS Food Situation in December Alternative Courses of Action DECISION TAKEN Action Without Notice Inescapable Implementing the Decision AFTERMATH OF THE DECISION Immediate Public Reaction The Spring Supply Situation Appendix I. Conclusions on Blue Stamps and Tokens Appendix II. Conclusions on Sugar Appendix III. Letter to Editors Appendix IV. Public Reactions Bibliographical Note 763 764 765 767 767 767 770 770 770 R 771 771 771 771 772 772 773 773 Development of the OPA Food Rationing Program The attack on Pearl Harbor came on Decem- ber 7, 1941. Within a month, OPA-the Office of Price Administration-had started its first rationing program-tires. Other rationing pro- grams followed with astonishing rapidity. By the end of March 1942, OPA's three major food rationing programs were already in opera- tion. Underlying the systems employed in these major food rationing programs was the theory that every person in the United States should be entitled to an equal amount of the rationed foodstuffs. There were minor variations on this theme, as in the granting of extra meat rations for miners and other heavy workers; but in gen- eral, differences in personal consumption hab- its or needs were not catered to directly. Two different rationing systems were used in the three major food programs. For sugar, books of ration stamps were issued which con- tained numbered stamps. Periodically OPA would announce that a particular numbered sugar stamp would be valid for a stated period of time (the first two weeks in April, for ex- ample) and for a stated number of pounds of sugar. For the other two major programs, processed foods, and meats and fats and oils, the un- derlying mechanics were more complicated. Within the processed foods category there were a host of different rationed items-canned mixed vegetables, canned grapefruit, canned tomato juice and so forth; the meat program included such diverse rationed commodities as lamb chops, butter, pork shoulders, lard, etc. For all the rationed items in the meat category, the consumer used red stamps, for the processed foods blue stamps. Each stamp was given a fixed value in "points," and pe- riodically announcements were made of the period of validity for each batch of designated stamps, and of the "point" value of each item in each program. When pork was plentiful, its point value was reduced; when canned grape- fruit was scarce, its point value was increased. The consumer was free to exercise his choice in spending his red ration stamps for any com- bination of meats and fats and oils that added up to the right number of points, over the ration period, and his blue stamps similarly for processed foods. OPA, by changing the period of validity for stamps, and by changing the point values of different items, kept supply and demand roughly in line. The validity periods soon caused an unex- pected difficulty. The difficulty arose most dramatically in the case of a non-food program -shoes; just before the expiration of the first shoe ration stamp, there were tremendous lines of customers in the shoe stores: people did not want to "waste" their shoe ration stamps. The situation was disorderly, worse than that, the system was obviously encouraging people to buy shoes who otherwise were ready to wait for a day, or a week, or a month, or a year. After a few months' trial, in September 1942, shoe ration stamps were made valid for an indefinite period; the rush to the shoe stores and the hoarding of shoes ceased. New stamps continued to be made valid periodi- cally; families with growing children generally used all their shoe stamps, many others merely retained possession of their stamps, feeling that they were there and could be used if needed. The situation in food, in varying degrees, was similar. Some food items could be hoarded easily, others not. But there was in the early days at least some rush of buying at the end of each period of validity; the ration system ap- peared to encourage consumption or hoarding. It also encouraged irregularities in the han- dling of stamps by retailers. The cure adopted, for a variety of reasons, was a compromise: new stamps were made valid some time (say a month) before the expiration of the previous batch of stamps. This device avoided the prob- 764 lem of the rush of customers-but it merely concealed the encouragement to over-buying caused by the fixed expiration dates. The ra- tioning authorities did, however, retain fairly tight control over potential demands for ra- tioned foods under this system. RELATIONSHIPS: RELATIONS WITH THE PUBLIC 1944 Food Prospects and Indefinite Validity Anticipations of a good food supply at the beginning of 1944 were bright and there were stirrings of hope about an early end of the war. These happy anticipations had important effects for food programing in three different agencies-the War Food Administration (WFA), the OPA, and the Office of War Mobilization, which with its satellite, the Office of Economic Stabilization, served as the President's central co-ordinating agency; Jus- tice Byrnes was director of the former, Judge Vinson of the latter. In all the rationing programs, in theory the supply agency (WFA in this case) determined (1) the need for rationing of a particular item; (2) periodically (usually quarterly) the amount available for rationing to consumers after al- lowance for military and other needs; and (3) the time for ending a rationing program. As one might expect, this neat formulation was subject to innumerable modifications on both sides. In the eyes of the public, OPA was re- sponsible for any rationing difficulties, and the fact that the supplies on which a ration allow ance was based were not forthcoming even though certified as available for the period by the supply agency, was not something that OPA could use as a shield. Experiences of this sort led OPA to make its own estimates of supplies, to seek controls over supply and to take other measures: such actions were not welcomed by the supply agencies. They, for their part, were painfully aware that OPA's administration of rationing had repercussions on price and supply and on their relations with industry; they sought, with varying success, to direct or control actual rationing operations. Justice Byrnes or Judge Vinson, appealed to by one side or the other in such controversies, frequently acted as arbiter. In the early months of 1944, there was sub- stantial harmony on food policy in the upper levels of WFA and OPA. WFA, counting on good supplies and hopeful of an early end of the war in Europe, was determined that a prospective abrupt cessation of military pro- curement should not be aggravated by the dumping of large government stocks of food, with disastrous effects for farmers. In spite of some opposition voices, in March, WFA de- cided on a "bare shelf" policy, with the corol- laries of increased consumption and decreased stocks. Mr. Byrnes approved this policy. In OPA, Administrator Chester Bowles of OPA was still fairly new at the job. He re- garded food rationing as a temporary unpleas- ant necessity that should be dispensed with at the earliest possible moment; he therefore favored progressive derationing. He had brought to OPA new people from the business world who shared his views and who were temperamentally inclined to agree with WFA's statistical forecasts and policy. Grumblers re- mained, but the policy was set. The chief effects of the new policy were an intermittent but notable easing of food ra- tioning. Many items were derationed, point values on most of the rest were decreased. From early spring to late fall, the rigors of food rationing were abated, and consumption of food increased. Thus, for a considerable period, the only meats under ration were the better grades of roast beef and steak. Prices on these items were relatively very high, people bought cheaper meats, so even here the ration restrictions had little effect. Ration stamps were unneeded and unused. In this atmosphere (though "beefsteak ra- tioning," as it was called, came later) it was natural that hesitations about an indefinite extension of stamp validity were quickly over- come. Sugar was first: on March 15, sugar stamps were given indefinite validity. The problem in processed foods, and meats and fats and oils was more complicated. For a long time housewives had had difficulty in counting up their blue (processed foods) and red (meat, etc.) points when making purchases; CANCELLATION OF THE RATION STAMPS the stamps were issued in denominations of 8, 5, 2, and 1 points; the whole process of buy- ing groceries was slowed up by the toils of arithmetical computation. The retailers also had a problem; they were responsible for sort- ing out the stamps by denominations, a very real clerical burden to which they objected strenuously. To overcome these irritations, a new system had been worked out over the months which was finally put into effect on February 27, 1944. Under the new system, all red and blue stamps had a value of 10 points. Red and blue tokens with a value of 1 point were provided for change-making purposes. Adding the points on stamps was easy, and sorting was no longer needed. The system was immediately popular but it contained an inherent inherent contradiction that caused almost instantaneous-and very dan- gerous-reprecussions. The tokens, naturally, had no expiration date, and and consumers promptly began to use up all stamps for the period and hoard their unused ration points in the form of tokens which would remain valid. The national supply of tokens was promptly threatened. There was, presumably, only one quick cure: indefinite validity for the stamps, and this was quickly adopted. As a matter of fact the cure had been recommended by some rationing officials before the new sys- tem was put into effect. This amendment was made effective on March 27, just a month after the new token and point system had gone into effect. In order to make doubly sure that neither food nor tokens would be hoarded, Chester Bowles, OPA Administrator, issued a state- ment when the amendment was issued, indi- cating that if at any time it became necessary to cancel the stamps, he would publicly notify the people of his intention to do so. The re- lease issued to the press for March 27, 1944, said in part: Major relief for the nation's 600,000 retailers from the burdens of food rationing was an- nounced today by Chester Bowles, Administrator of the Office of Price Administration, in directing the removal of expiration dates from red and 765 blue stamps used for buying meats, fats, oils and processed fruits and vegetables. From now on the red and blue stamps in War Ration Book Four will be good indefinitely, just as shoe and sugar stamps are. Advance notice will be given if it is found necessary to retire any food stamps. Before turning to the events of the fall of 1944, one final minor change in system may be noted. In September, during another spurt of derationing, so few processed food items. were left under ration that it seemed feasible to give all those remaining a value of ten points each, and this was done. Change was no longer needed, so the blue tokens were with- drawn. The Fall Crisis The summer of 1944 was a time of high hopes; the landings in France, the break- through, the sweep across France; by mid- September, however, hopes for an immediate victory in Europe faded. The war was going on. Even before this time, in the late sum- mer, the doubters in OPA began to get in- creasingly concerned, partly because of wor- ries about future food supplies, partly because of a technical problem in the two point-ration systems. The systems were, as OPA had learned, effectively operable only if each in- cluded a substantial number of rationed items. OPA operating officials, whatever their views. on future supplies, objected to WFA's orders for derationing of most covered items: they felt that more items had to be left on each ration list-or none. Bowles, however, and his deputy administrator, and his director of the Food Rationing Division went along with WFA, and Justice Byrnes insisted that WFA's interpretation of the bare shelf policy be main- tained. In September, there were major derationing moves in spite of the opposition of the chiefs of the Meat and the Processed Foods Ration- ing Branches; the higher officials in OPA agreed with WFA. Thereafter, the red and blue ration systems did not work well because 766 RELATIONSHIPS: RELATIONS WITH THE PUBLIC so few items were still rationed. One signifi- cant and inevitable result of this situation was an increasing backlog of unspent stamps in the hands of consumers. There was always a sizable backlog, but derationing made the sit- uation much worse. With a continuing war, with serious doubts about the food supply, the OPA rationing offi- cials decided to tackle the problem. Their first step was to obtain information. Working at top speed, officials of the Food Rationing Di- vision and the Deputy Administrator for Ra- tioning prepared a questionnaire form which could be used to find out the facts on unspent food ration stamps. Various other parts of the OPA co-operated, the questionnaire was am- plified to cover some other rationing problems, and the necessary complex governmental clear- ances were quickly obtained. The survey was conducted by the Census Bureau during the week of October 2. Preliminary tabulations were rushed through and the general character of the results was known by the third week in October. - The results of the survey were disturbing. On the average (there were great variations be- tween rural and urban families, and among other categories), people held a 2.8 months' supply of red and blue stamps and about a two months' supply of sugar stamps-and these figures did not include the stamps in all three programs that became valid in October. If the war had been about to end, if prospective food supplies had been ample for a continua- tion of a light rationing program, the unused stamp backlog would have made no great dif- ference. That was not the situation. 1 Clearly the war was not going to end in the immediate future. As for processed foods, Cur- tis Rogers, the Branch Chief, saw trouble ahead. Rogers was a young executive from the food trade who had lived with the rationing program from the beginning. He knew that the new pack of canned goods, the statistics on which were now available, would not support a continuation of the then current generous rationing program. Leon Bosch, chief of the meat branch, a former instructor of marketing, reached similar conclusions on his program. 1 See Appendixes I and II. Both men feared that with the announcement of tighter rationing that they were sure would have to be made, consumers would use their previously unused stamps to clean out the stores. To make matters worse, inventories were low, and badly distributed. The real crisis, however, was in sugar. Throughout 1944 the sugar rationing system (including rations for industrial consumers like bakers and bottlers, and for home canning) had not been held under tight enough control: a total allocation of about six million tons made by WFA was being steadily exceeded and by the end of the year the excess con- sumption would total about a million tons. By November (with the survey results in hand), Ed Pickett, chief of the sugar rationing branch, was keenly aware of the excess rationing and he knew that dealers' stocks were dangerously low in consequence. The situation was thus bad, but two addi- tional factors made it critical. One was the prospect for the coming year. The total amount of sugar available for rationing of all types-home and industrial-was clearly going to be smaller, not only smaller than the amount actually used in 1944, but considerably smaller than the amount allotted for 1944- and exceeded. The second factor was, of course, the backlog of unspent stamps which assumed importance because of the supply situation. During November these gloomy facts were discussed and debated. WFA remained firm in its faith in a "bare shelf" policy and made no move to tighten up the rationing programs. Sugar remained the prime worry, not only to Pickett, but also to Max McCullough, Dep- uty Administrator for Rationing, an experi- enced public official who had come to the national OPA office, after service in the field. Pickett presently concluded that there was just not enough sugar in stock or becoming available to validate outstanding currency plus that which had to be issued. In fact, he as- serted that if the outstanding home canning stamps were presented for redemption, there which had been issued in November for the would not be enough sugar to cover the stamps day to day sugar needs of the public; the stamps in the hands of industrial and home CANCELLATION users would have become mere hunting licenses because of the disappearance of sugar from re- tailers' shelves. The December Crisis FOOD SITUATION IN DECEMBER The threatening situation which OPA had perceived during October and November reached a state in December where the offi- cials became convinced that action was neces- sary. The sharply reduced sugar allocation promised to bankrupt the entire sugar ration- ing system. OPA knew from experience that rationing collapses if ration stamps cannot be honored. While WFA now belatedly was com- ing to agree with the OPA officials on the general food situation, it still issued no direc- tive placing various processed vegetables back on the ration list or restoring various types of meat to rationing. OPA continued to press WFA for tighter rationing. WFA, however, was apparently still standing by its "bare shelf” program in spite of the facts and was reluctant to alter that policy or to return to the ration- ing program in processed foods which had pre- vailed prior to September 17. All doubts about a stricter policy were sud- denly swept away by the Battle of the Bulge. After the German breakthrough on Decem- ber 17, excessive optimism about an early end of the war in Europe was replaced by excess pessimism. McCullough and Bowles (who had gradually changed his views on food rationing) no longer met active opposition from WFA. Judge Vinson, Director of Economic Stabilization, agreed with Bowles's position. WFA then di- rected the rerationing of many processed foods and of various meats and a tightening of the butter ration. The 1945 sugar allocation was certified to OPA-about a million tons less than the 1944 allocation, about two million tons less than 1944 use! OF THE RATION STAMPS 767 sidering this problem, McCullough soon real- ized that the other two food rationing pro- grams were also headed for trouble, and for similar reasons. Though some officials thought that drastic action might be avoided for these, since they were sure that the sugar problem had to be faced anyway, these programs were considered along with sugar and, as it turned out, were the subject of much more debate. There was a continuing series of conferences in McCullough's office where possible courses of action were weighed. The conferences were attended by McCullough and his assistants Redford and French; by Burdick, Director of the Food Rationing Division and his assistant, Dice. The Deputy Administrator for Informa- tion, Stanford, and the Director of Informa- tion Planning, Bennet, were also called in as was Clark, the attorney attached to McCul- lough's office. There was no real dispute about sugar. A reduction in sugar rations was inevitable and a further reduction adequate to permit the unused stamps to be used was far too drastic to deserve consideration. Everyone agreed that, with the announcement of the ration reduc- tion, people would start to use their unspent stamps. The whole system would then break down. Since sugar was not part of a point sys- tem, the strain on sugar supplies could not be eased by increasing ration values of other com- modities. Cancellation of the unused sugar stamps seemed the only solution, and cancel- lation without advance notice, for advance notice would cause a run on sugar that would be disastrous. As will be seen, some of the arguments used in the debate on meats and processed foods also applied in the case of sugar. But the sugar program was different in three important ways: (1) the supply situation was worse; (2) sugar was not part of a point system; and (3) OPA had not promised to give advance notice of the cancellation of sugar stamps. The situation in the red and blue point pro- grams was more complicated. By the same reasoning that applied to sugar, it was gener- ally felt that if rationing were tightened, i.e., if consumers had to spend stamps for more food items and to pay more points for various items, unused stamps which had not been ALTERNATIVE COURSES OF ACTION The need for drastic action on sugar was early apparent to McCullough; but in con- 768 RELATIONSHIPS: RELATIONS WITH THE PUBLIC used in previous months would come into the market. Accordingly, the most urgent problem was how to blot up this reservoir of stamps which threatened to flood the market and wash away existing stocks of sugar (as has been noted) and other rationed foods. On previous occasions when it had been necessary for OPA to take up the slack in the red or blue ration- ing program, i.e. when reduced supplies of those foods were anticipated, OPA had merely increased the point values for the respective products. It was at first suggested that this method be adopted in the present instance. By increasing the point value of each item, it was obvious that OPA would cause people to use up many previously unused stamps. People who had not found it necessary to use all their points before would be likely to do so under a program of higher point values on a larger group of foods. However, it was also recognized that this method would work a hardship on a majority of the people. As has been pointed out, the surplus of stamps was not evenly scattered among the people but clustered in the hands of certain groups of people and in certain areas. The majority of people did not possess several months' supply of unused stamps. If point values on foods were raised and more foods were placed on the rationed list, the people who had little or no holdings in unused stamps, would find themselves hard pressed to obtain enough food for their day to day needs. The fact that they had ap- parently found it necessary to spend most of their previous stamps in the normal course of their living during the months when rationing was not tight seemed to indicate that they would not have enough if points were raised to any considerable extent. But unless points were raised substantially, the unused stamps in the hands of a good minority of the people would be enough to clean the shelves. The backlog of unused stamps had to be reckoned with in computing the new point system. Thus this proposal did not seem to present an equitable solution to the problem. A second alternative was that which claimed the support of most of the OPA officials in the operating branches. This proposal was to invalidate the backlog of stamps and thereby to begin 1945 with a clean slate. OPA would then become solvent by refusing to honor out- standing currency. Burdick was favorably dis- posed toward the proposal as a way out of the dilemma, but continued to hesitate during the conferences. Dice was more consistently for it. Dice had come over from Agriculture when the food rationing program was first begun, and had earlier been Chief of the Sugar Branch; his argument ran approximately along the following lines: The unspent ration stamps represented a potential threat to effective ra- tioning; while not all of these consumers would spend all their ration currency, the fact that rationing had to be made tighter would prob- ably bring a large part of the unused stamps onto the market. Accordingly, these stamps had to be taken into account in reckoning the new point values. Yet if this two months' supply of surplus stamps were figured into the rationing program, the majority of people would suffer; it would be necessary to set a considerably higher point value on all subse- quent purchases of rationed goods. This would mean that only those who had a surplus of stamps would be able to obtain adequate amounts of rationed food while all other peo- ple would be hard pressed to pay ration points for the food they needed. People with a sur- plus of stamps had shown that they did not need them. If they had needed them, they would have spent them. Therefore, OPA could not be charged with taking food from their mouths. It was fairer to the majority of people to wipe out the stamps unused in the hands of some of the people. This was fairer than the alternative of raising the point value on rationed foods to such a level that it would absorb the surplus points in the hands of some of the people. For this would have made it pos- sible for these people-the very ones who ap- parently were not dependent upon rationed foods-to go into the market and obtain not only their fair share of the 1945 food supply but also an increase to the extent that they had a surplus of 1944 stamps. This was substantially the view taken by McCullough. However, McCullough was con- cerned about the possible repercussions of such action on the public and it was for this reason that he had brought the public relations men, Stanford and Bennet, into the conferences. CANCELLATION OF THE RATION STAMPS 769 since Bowles had made a promise to the pub- lic that they would be notified before their points would be declared invalid, invalidation without notice would be wrong. Ration points had become in fact what they were called in OPA: "currency." Indeed, during the war when money was more plentiful than certain foods, the ration currency had come to have more real value than money vis à vis rationed foods. Accordingly, people would actually feel as if they had been robbed. To Stanford, Dep- uty Administrator for Information, the prob- lem of maintaining public faith in OPA was the principal disadvantage. Stanford had been an advertising agency man who had come down to work with OPA during the war. He stressed the public trust inherent in adminis- tration. Should OPA invalidate the stamps, people would lose confidence in future decla- rations by OPA and thus OPA would add to its own difficulties in rationing foods. But above and beyond its effect on the agency's public relations, was the broader issue of the people's faith in the statements of the gov- ernment. OPA had secured the people's trust, slowly and arduously. This faith which had been built with considerable effort, was never- theless fragile. The proposed action would undo much of the results they had thus far attained. McCullough wrestled with the problem of working out a solution which would on the one hand effectively remove the threat of the unused stamps in the hands of the consumer, and establish rationing on a sound and solvent basis with the new year and which would at the same time be palatable to the public. On the issue of invalidating the unused stamps, the point was raised by Stanford that Bowles had promised the people when ration stamps had first been issued with an indefinite time for their use that should conditions require that stamps would have to be invalidated, he would notify the people in advance. At the time the change was made from monthly validity to indeterminate validity, it was gen- erally assumed that the stamps might be can- celed every six months by prior notice. This method had been proved successful in the shoe rationing program. However, the seriousness. of the food situation which confronted OPA in December 1944 had not been anticipated nine months earlier. Thus when the suggestion was made that a ten day or thirty day notice should be given of intent to cancel 1944 stamps, there were grave doubts of the wisdom of such prior notice. McCullough felt that to give people notice of intent as Bowles had promised, would precipitate a run on the stores which would wipe out the small stocks in the hands of dealers and wholesalers. Further- more, notice would precipitate a great increase in the trading or giving away of stamps thus adding to the total demand on food stocks and adding to the unequal distribution of foods. Thus the issue became simply one of in- validating the stamps without giving the peo- ple prior notice or of not going through with the proposal to invalidate the stamps. Stanford and Bennet both were inclined to forego in- validation. Bennet was a young executive who had been in advertising before going with OPA as assistant to Bowles in rationing tires in Con- necticut. When Bowles had been appointed OPA Administrator, he had taken Bennet along to act as Director of the Information Planning Division. (Stanford was the top man.) Bennet was extremely concerned over what the public's reaction would be to the proposal to invalidate the stamps and over the difficult job of public relations involved. Bennet felt that But the operating division officials remained unconvinced. They were sure that breaking a promise to the people was better than giving people who did not need the food a priority upon remaining stocks while depriving the people who really needed it. However, Bennet and Stanford had a further objection to can- cellation: it would lead to improper use of the canceled stamps. Under the rationing system, dealers were required to deposit their receipts of ration stamps in their ration bank or with their wholesaler each month. The banks and wholesalers were allowed ten days to two weeks after the period, to deliver the used stamps into the hands of the OPA officials; the ma- jority of retailers, who did not have ration bank accounts, had even more time. This pe- riod would now make it possible for dealers to accept the canceled stamps and simply add them to those which had been used for pur- chases during the pre-Christmas buying period. 770 RELATIONSHIPS: RELATIONS WITH THE PUBLIC It would be difficult to control this. Consum- ers could be told that they were not to give the canceled stamps to dealers because the dealer could not honor them. However, be- cause of this very suggestion (to both dealers and consumers) or because many would not understand, it was likely that when a dealer's customer asked him to accept the stamps he would be likely to do so-especially when he could do so with little likelihood of being apprehended. Furthermore, many housewives. were in the habit of giving their books to the dealer to tear the required stamps for their purchase from the ration book. A dealer could thus readily avail himself of these canceled stamps and add them to his Christmas period returns and sell an equivalent amount of ra- tioned goods point-free. A final argument advanced by Bennet and Stanford (originally suggested by French who had formerly been with the shoe rationing division) was that cancellation without notice would have an adverse effect upon other ra- tioning programs, principally shoes. The situa- tion in shoes was becoming as critical as that in foods, stocks were dangerously low and a run on shoe stores would have been very se- rious. Bennet and Stanford argued that a can- cellation of the food stamps would foster ap- prehension over the continued validity of the shoe stamps and would be likely to precipitate a run on the stores to obtain shoes before the coupon would be voided. The coupons had been issued without an expiration date but notice of future invalidation was issued periodi- cally. Thus people knew that their stamps would not remain good; but they had counted theretofore on ample warning. The failure to give advance notice in food rationing might suggest the possibility of similar action in the shoe program. Decision Taken ACTION WITHOUT NOTICE INESCAPABLE Despite the arguments advanced by Stan- ford and Bennet and the hesitancy and reluc tance of Burdick, McCullough came to the conclusion that cancellation of stamps was in- escapable. During the long and arduous con- ferences which were held during the weeks before Christmas, he cast around for some other method of accomplishing the ends sought. But every other alternative seemed to offer less effective results while some action had to be taken-and that at once. The only way to assure equitable distribution during 1945 was to make equal shares of food avail- able to all. This could not be done by saying to some: "you can have your 1945 share plus your balance of 1944 stamps' worth." It was McCullough's belief that the public interest would best be served by violating OPA's pledge to the people and giving all the people a fair shot at the food; OPA's greatest obligation was to secure equitable distribution. Accordingly, though he felt the action would incur public wrath, McCullough recommended the action to Bowles, who agreed with him that it was the best of bad alternatives. IMPLEMENTING THE DECISION It was decided that the cancellation of stamps would go into effect on December 31, a Sunday, at a time when dealers were nor- mally required to reckon up their point bal- ances for the preceding period. The announce- ment was scheduled for Saturday night since there could hardly then be a serious run over the week end when most stores would be closed. However, some ten days before the order was scheduled to be released, a leak de- veloped. OPA had acquired the voluntary cen- sorship of the press on stories of runs or stories which might precipitate runs. Nevertheless, one newspaper man learned of the cancella- tion story and made it clear that he intended to print it. Accordingly, McCullough and the others decided to move up the date and went into action to have the releases out during the Christmas period. Christmas was on Monday, the story was released to the press and radio as confidential until December 24 with the cancellation of sugar and processed food stamps taking effect December 26 at 12:01 A.M. It was announced that meats would go back on the rationed list on December 31. The information department sent an urgent mes- CANCELLATION OF THE RATION STAMPS sage to the press explaining the circumstances of the decision and asking their help in mak- ing the people understand the necessity which prompted the action. (See Appendix III.) "Fact Sheets" giving the statistics regarding each of the rationed foods which had led up to the action were supplied the press and radio also; these Fact Sheets were prepared by fur- ther use of the information collected in the October survey. Civic and trade groups were urged to co-operate in bringing the facts home to the people. The attempt by the Informa- tion Department to take some of the heat off OPA was not entirely successful. As can readily be understood, it was a difficult job of public relations 771 after, indicated that the majority of people had not really been hurt and that in fact the majority were not angry with OPA as might have been expected by a perusal of the OPA and Congressional mail on the subject. (See Appendix IV.) As in similar cases, those who take the trouble to write are those who feel especially strongly on the matter. Aftermath of the Decision THE SPRING SUPPLY SITUATION As had been expected, the supply of sugar for civilian use during the spring of 1945 was smaller than in any comparable period during the war. The situation in meat was even more critical during the spring of 1945; many areas were without meat for days. It was generally agreed among OPA officials that if they had not taken drastic action on the meat rationing program in December, there would have been a meat famine in many areas of the country. The situation in butter was equally critical. Processed foods, while less critically short than the other rationed foods, were nonetheless scarce during the early months of 1945. Thus there is evidence that drastic action had been necessary when OPA canceled the stamps. IMMEDIATE PUBLIC REACTION While some newspapers co-operated with OPA by explaining the how and why of the action, it was too complicated a problem to be made clear to the masses of people. There had been no time to break the news gradually; to condition the people; to build up a proper frame of reference. Some newspapers and com- mentators were not unhappy at the opportun- Appendix I ity for calling attention to this "latest" evi- dence of OPA's incompetence. Some people were prone to gripe about "bureaucrats" in general and OPA in particular. But besides these, there were some people who had been hurt by the sudden action. Individuals who had denied themselves the use of all their points because they felt it was patriotic to buy only what they could not do without; others who had been saving their points to have a little something extra when a son came home on furlough, and so forth. Whatever their personal reasons, OPA's mailbag quickly as- sumed gigantic proportions; Congressmen (who also had been hearing from their con- stituents) were also perturbed about the action. Eventually, the continuing efforts by OPA to explain the causes which led to the cancellation and to point out its unquestionable fairness to the majority of people began to take effect. Surveys which OPA conducted shortly there- CONCLUSIONS ON BLUE STAMPS AND TOKENS (Processed Foods Program) I. TOTAL OUTSTANDING STAMPS EQUAL TO 2.8 MONTHS' SUPPLY (a) No. of unused stamps reported by survey (b) Estimated no. of un- used stamps in U. S. (Value 16,730,000,000 points) (c) No. of months' supply (d) These outstanding blue points are sufficient: (1) If distributed among all institutional us- ers, to supply them with their normal allotments for 14 months. (2) If spent for canned fruits in #2½ cans, 206,506 1,673,000,000 2.8 772 RELATIONSHIPS: RELATIONS WITH THE PUBLIC at the average value of 65 points prevail- ing in October, to buy 10½ 10½ million cases, or 18% of the 1944 pack. (3) If spent for fruit juices in #2½ cans at the average value of 40 points prevail- ing in October, to buy 17 million cases, or 68% of the 1944 pack of rationed juices. (Grape, pineapple, tomato and vege- table combinations.) II. 45% OF OUTSTANDING STAMPS ARE IN THE 8-SERIES, ALL OF WHICH BECAME VALID BEFORE AUGUST 1, 1944 Estimated unused stamps in U. S.: Total 8-series stamps Total 5-series stamps Total of both series stamps 756,000,000 917,000,000 1,673,000,000 III. 26% OF 8-SERIES AND 70% OF 5-SERIES STILL UNUSED Per cent of total stamps validated: Appendix II Used Unused 73.7 26.3 30.4 69.6 39.9 8-series 5-series Both series combined 60.1 CONCLUSIONS ON SUGAR 14,777 Ration Book holders were "sampled" in an October survey. We wanted to get signifi- cant information on unused ration currency, opin- ions and attitudes about sugar. While this survey may obviously not be projected accurately into a National picture, it is an important indication of conditions generally. After analysis, these are our conclusions: (1) 71% of the people doubt the need for sugar rationing after V-E Day; or have no opinion, or say, "it depends." (2) 42% do not believe sugar rationing is necessary. (3) 60% say they get all they need; 10% more than they need. (4) 50% of farm families say they do not get enough; but only 25% of city people get less than they need. (5) There is, therefore, an extremely important over-all job of information needed to ac- quaint the public with the vital need for continuing sugar rationing through at least one more year. (6) On October 1, 27% of home canning stamps No. 40 were unused. (33% of city dwellers and 15% of farm dwellers.) (7) 7% of regular sugar stamps are unused (twice as many in cities as in rural areas). (8) 86% of farm families, 73% of rural fami- lies, but only 51% of city families re- ceived home canning coupons. (9) Including all sugar stamps issued and valid (Nos. 30, 31, 32 and 40 and home can- ning coupons), the average consumer has unused ration evidence worth 4 pounds of sugar and equal to about two months' regular ration. Outstanding Stamps 30, 31, and 32 would buy 65,000 tons of sugar. Outstanding Stamps #40 would buy 80,- ooo tons. Outstanding home canning cou- pons would buy 103,000 tons. All together, they would buy about 250,000 tons. Of course, a great number of consumers still have Stamp No. 33 which was validated on September 1st. Appendix III LETTER TO EDITORS OFFICE OF PRICE ADMINISTRATION Washington 25, D. C. Office of the Administrator Personal and Confidential Until December 27th 1 Dear Mr. Editor: I want to enlist your help in a group of major problems which confront me today and which affect the daily lives of all of us. I don't know of any time while I have been Administrator of OPA when we were faced with so many situations that required so many decisions that were bound to be unpleasant and that so urgently required understanding and co-operation from the public. To create that understanding I feel I must rely to a great degree on the editors of the country to 1 This date was moved up to December 24 at the last minute. CANCELLATION OF THE RATION STAMPS explain the facts which had to be faced in decid- ing our rationing program for 1945. Here are the facts: Present estimates from the supply agencies indi- cate we will have less meat, less butter, less sugar, and less processed food for civilian consumption in the first quarter of 1945 than in any 3 months of the war. An end of the German war in 1945 will not significantly alter these shortages. OPA will announce a two-fold action to meet this situation for release in morning papers, De- cember 27th. The first part of its action is an expanded list of rationed foods-adding processed foods-including most canned and bottled vege- tables-raising the point value of butter, placing about 85 per cent of the meats under rationing control and tightening sugar rationing. The second action will take out of circulation a very large number of unused ration stamps and coupons by cancellation. Here are the jobs I especially seek your help on! 1. To bring home to the people the facts about the food supply situation. 2. To emphasize that rationing works not on the principle of taking things away from people, but to make it possible to share them. Appendix IV Opinion Briefs January 27, 1945 PUBLIC REACTIONS TO RERATIONING AND STAMP INVALIDATION The recent rationing changes elicited a tre- mendous volume of discussion within a very short time, but the comment tapered off very quickly. The Twohey Analysis of Newspaper Opinion reported that for the two weeks ending January 6, 1945, the general topic of shortages and rationing led all issues, both domestic and foreign, in the amount of editorial space it received. For the week ending December 30, 60% of the comment dealt with the tightening of the rationing pro- gram. During the following week, only 35% of the editorials discussed the changes in the ration- ing program. And for the week ending January 13, the changes in rationing are not even mentioned as one of the major topics of interest. A telegraphic poll on January 3 of 21 members of OWI's editorial panel located in 19 widely distributed localities indicated that the criticism of the changes was already subsiding. According to reports from DIEs on January 3, 70% of the grocers in 87 cities scattered through- 773 out the country thought that criticism was defi- nitely subsiding. In general, the stamp invalidation aroused the bulk of the unfavorable comment. OWI's Analy- sis of Editorial Opinion reported 314 editorials dealing with the rerationing and stamp invalida- tion between December 26, 1944 and January 4, 1945. Comment on the rerationing ran about six to one in favor of that change; most of the editorials pointed out the relation between rerationing and the military situation. Most of those opposed either expressed or implied the idea that political considerations had prompted the earlier relaxation of rationing and that tighter rationing was being resumed now that politics were no longer a factor. Comment about the stamp invalidation was about four to three against the action. Some of the unfavorable editorials spoke quite bitterly about "repudiated government obligations," and "breaking faith with the public." About a fourth complained that the thrifty and patriotic house- wife had been penalized in favor of the extrava- gant ones. Most considered the move unfortunate and unwise, felt that public confidence in OPA had been seriously impaired, and that this would lead to hoarding and over-buying. Some of those favorable to the action also expressed the fear that there would be hoarding as a result. Those editorials in favor of the change in general related it to military considerations, pointed out that the stamps probably had not been needed if they were still unused, and regarded it as the best solution to a difficult situation. Bibliographical Note Certain aspects of the cancellation story are described in Joseph A. Kershaw, A History of Ration Banking, G.P.O., Washington, 1947. The whole story is told as part of the general history of OPA, in Harvey C. Mansfield and others, A Short History of OPA, G.P.O., Wash- ington, 1949. Mr. Kershaw drafted Chapter 5 of this volume which covers the cancellation episode; but this particular incident takes on more meaning if it is read in the light of the general development of OPA from 1941 to 1945. The episode is treated separately as a problem 774 RELATIONSHIPS: RELATIONS WITH THE PUBLIC in the use of research in administration with emphasis on the use of the October unused-stamp survey in an article by Joseph Kershaw and Harry Alpert, Jour- nal of Social Issues, Vol. III, No. 4 (1947), PP. 40-48. The episode is also told in abbreviated form in Victor A. Thompson, The Regulatory Process in OPA Rationing, King's Crown Press, New York, 1950. Professor Thompson uses the cancellation his- tory as a case study in his analysis of the problem of values in administration; it will be found on PP. 250-254. It may be noted that Professor Thompson concludes that the decision was based on the principle of equality of sacrifice in spite of objections based on competing principles (e.g., numerical equality) and technical prophecies (e.g., runs on other commodities). He does not, in his conclusion, cite the technical prophecies about the effects of alternative decisions that supported cancellation. The present study was originally drafted on the basis of interviews before any of the foregoing appeared in print, but use has been made of these accounts in the process of final revision in 1951. PUBLICATIONS OF THE INTER-UNIVERSITY CASE PROGRAM The ICP publishes in individual pamphlet form the public administration case studies listed below. Included are those previously published by the ICP's predecessor, the Committee on Public Administration Cases. Twenty-six of the case studies (those asterisked) have been collected, with other materials in a Case Book PUBLISHED BY HARCOURT, BRACE AND COMPANY, INC., NEW YORK: Cases in Public Administration and Policy Development. 1952. PAMPHLETS DISTRIBUTED BY THE POLYGRAPHIC COMPANY OF AMERICA, INC., NEW YORK: CPAC Case Studies, 1948-1951 (previously published by the Committee on Public Administra- tion Cases) *The Air Search and Rescue Program. 1950 *The Attack on the Cost of Living Index. 1951 *The Battle of Blue Earth County. 1950, revised 1950 *The Cambridge City Manager. 1951 The Consumers' Counsel. 1949, revised 1950 *The Defense Plant Corporation. 1950 *The Disposal of the Aluminum Plants. 1948, revised 1952 *The FBI Retirement Bill. 1949 The Feasibility Dispute. 1950 *The Foreign Service Act of 1946. 1949, revised 1952 *Gotham in the Air Age. 1950, revised 1952 *Indonesian Assignment. 1950 *The Kings River Project. 1949, revised 1950 The Latin American Proceeding. 1949 *The Natural Cement Issue. 1950 *The National Labor Relations Board Field Examiner. 1951 *The Office of Education Library. 1950 *The Reconversion Controversy. 1950 *The Sale of the Tankers. 1950, revised 1952 *Self-Insurance in the Treasury. 1949, revised 1952 Smith and the OPA. 1950 *The Transfer of the Children's Bureau. 1949, revised 1952 *The TVA Ammonia Plant. 1950 1. The Firing of Pat Jackson. 1951 *2. #3. #4. ICP Case Series, in progress, 1951- *5. *6. *7. *8. *9. < Cancellation of the Ration Stamps. 1952 The Emergency Rubber Project. 1952 The Glavis-Ballinger Dispute. 1952 The Regional Director and the Press. 1952 Production Planning in the Patent Office. 1952 1 Edited by Harold Stein The Rural Electrification Administration Personnel Report. 1952 The Veterans' Gas Ration. 1952 The New York City Health Centers. 1952 W. Scott Payne Kathryn Smul Arnow Paul N. Ylvisaker Frank C. Abbott Kathryn Smul Arnow Clifford J. Durr Harold Stein Joseph F. Marsh, Jr John Brigante Harold Stein Herbert Kaufman Charles Wolf, Jr. Arthur A. Maass W. Scott Payne Paul N. Ylvisaker William H. Riker Corinne Silverman Jack W. Peltason Louis W. Koenig Kathryn Smul Arnow Robert L. Gold E. Drexel Godfrey, Jr. Ellen St. Sure William H. Riker Martin Kriesberg Martin Kriesberg Winifred McCulloch Arch Dots on Winifred McCulloch William H. Riker Herbert Kaufman ---- f UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN 3 9015 06792 8682 =: ! : ་ : 2. J