' ， ， ， ， , ……–..….… : §）, £®& № • și ſae ¿ ¿ ¿ * * * * ， Y.• • • • • • • - * : : • . . . ==========：：：：：：：：：：：:：：：：：：:：：：：：：：：:a：a：a：a：actae---<-----------------…--~~~~--~~~~ -…-…--~~~~）. :） -------+----~--~~~~）; |---- « · · · · **********…！！！” – . . ……=…==--~~~~！-- - - - - - ---------------D！… --~~~~）; STUDIES IN STATISTICS, 327- Social, #olitical, and #cbital, BY GEORGE BLUNDELL LONGSTAFF, M.A., M.B., CERT. PREVENTIVE MEDICINE, OXON., F.R.C.P., ETC. WITH MAPS AND DIAGRAMS. LO N DO N : E D WAR D STAN FOR D, 26 & 27 COCKSPUR STREET, CHARING CRCSS, S.W. 1891. [All rights reserved.] He 88ſ A 85 \ * * ** TO SIR JOHN SIMON, K.C.B. D.C.L., LL.D., F.R.S., ETC., ETC., THIS SMALL WORK IS DEDICATED IBY AN ADMIRING PUPIL. PRE FA C E. THE numerous and voluminous reports on the very dusty shelves of the library of the Statistical Department of the General Register Office form a vast reservoir, into which a ceaseless stream of facts has been flowing for more than half a century. To disturb the dust upon those shelves; to fish out facts; to group, arrange, compare, and ponder over them, has long been my hobby. In spite of the laborious investigations into the Geographical Distribution of Disease by Dr. Haviland and the very valuable papers by Mr. Alex. Buchan and Dr. Arthur Mitchell on the relations of disease to meteorology, it must be admitted that the medical profession has hitherto sadly neglected the materials so long and so patiently gathered together under the super- intendence of Dr. Farr and Dr. Ogle. The paucity of workers in this direction has induced me to republish (after careful revision) some essays which were not unfavourably received by the respective scientific societies to which they were originally addressed. This, the medical portion of the work, is comprised in Chapters XIII.—XXI., and will perhaps prove too technical for many readers. X AREFA CE The first three chapters are of an introductory, and elementary character, and will be wisely skipped by the expert. The remainder of the work (Chapters IV.-XII.) consists of an exposition, as clear as I could make it, of some of the more striking facts and more pregnant results of the vast growth of population in Europe, America, and the British Colonies within the last half century. These chapters contain matter which I hope may be of interest alike to the historian, the politician, the economist, and even the general public. By a free use of the graphic method, by maps and diagrams, I have endeavoured to present dry matter in as attractive a way as the subject admits of, but at the same time I claim to have in no respect sacrificed scientific accuracy to clearness of expression. Systematic statisticians will in many cases look in vain for the figures upon which the diagrams have been constructed, but after much consideration I decided not to overload the work with long tables that few readers would ever consult. Where the authority for the figures made use of is not specially mentioned, it may be taken for granted that they were extracted either from the Census Reports or from the Registrar-General's Returns. These last are of five descriptions — (1) Annual Reports. (2) Decennial Supplements to Annual Reports. (3) Quarterly Returns of Marriages, Births, and Deaths in England. AREFACE xi (4) Weekly Returns of Births, Deaths, and causes of Death in London and other great towns. (5) Annual Summaries of Births, Deaths, and Causes of Death in London and other great towns. In many cases I have not thought it necessary, or desirable, to quote the precise reports made use of, but the reader who is versed in Blue-books will not find much difficulty in verifying any facts in which he may be especially interested. The statistics of migration are not very satisfactory, and it appears to be impossible to get at the absolute facts. As a rule, the emigrants from Europe are recorded, more or less imperfectly, at this end, while the immigrants are also recorded in the new lands beyond the seas. It is difficult, no doubt, to define an emigrant for statistical purposes; moreover, there may from the nature of the case be greater facilities for observing and recording immigra- tion than emigration. Be this as it may, in many, if not in all cases, the number of recorded immigrants greatly exceeds that of recorded emigrants, so that the reader will note some marked discrepancies between the statistics of emigration given in Chapter V., and those of immigration in the chapters following. Perhaps the truth lies between the two. The United States Census Report, 1880, is sadly deficient in method and arrangement, a fact that no doubt accounts for the conflicting statements as to the “total population ” in some of our best statistical hand-books. xii AREFA CE My cordial thanks are due to the numerous persons who have given me kindly assistance or encouragement in my often tedious labours. More especially am I indebted to the late Dr. Farr, to Dr. W. Ogle, Mr. Noel A. Humphreys, and other officials of the Registrar-General's Department; to Dr. Buchanan; to my teachers, the late Dr. Murchison, Sir John Simon, K.C.B., and Dr. William Ord; to Messrs. Buchan and Mitchell for permission to make use of their figures and diagrams; to the Councils of the Society of the Medical Officers of Health, the Epi- demiological Society of London, and the Royal Statistical Society for kind permission to reprint papers originally published in their transactions; but, above all, to Dr. F. A. Dixey, of Wadham College, Oxford, who rendered me invaluable assistance in the earlier part of my work, and to Mr. A. C. Waters, of the General Register Office, who, besides assisting me in many ways with information and advice, has not only corrected the proof-sheets and pre- pared the Index, but has criticized the argument and checked and revised the figures and calculations in such a thorough manner as greatly to increase their value; yet, in spite of all that I owe to these gentlemen, the responsibility for facts, statements, and opinions lies wholly with myself. G. B. LONGSTAFF. º Highlands, Putney Heath, November 27th, 1890. CHAP II. III. IV. VI. VII. VIII. IX. XI. XII. XIII. XIV. XV. CONTENT S. INTRODUCTORY ON DEATH-RATES, with a Diagram ... THE BIRTH-, DEATH-, AND MARRIAGE-RATES OF ENG- LAND AND WALES FOR FIFTY YEARs, with two Diagrams THE GROWTH OF POPULATION IN ENGLAND, with two Maps... THE MIGRATIONS OF THE People IN THE NINE- TEENTH CENTURY, with a Map and two Diagrams THE GROWTH OF NEW NATIONs—THE UNITED STATES, with five Maps * @ º e THE GROWTH OF NEw NATIONs (continued)—CANADA THE GROWTH OF NEw NATIONs (continued)—SouTH AMERICA THE Growth of New Nations (continued)—SouTH AFRICA AND AUSTRALASIA, with a Diagram THE GROWTH OF MODERN CITIES THE POPULATION OF LONDON AND ITS MIGRATIONs, with a Map Food SUPPLY © ºn tº SUGGESTIONS FOR THE CENSUs of 1891 THE RECENT DECLINE IN THE ENGLISH DEATH-RATE CONSIDERED IN CONNECTION WITH THE CAUSES OF DEATH tº º º tº ſº gº tº gº tº tº e º tº e º THE CAUSATION of SUMMER DIARRHOEA, with three Diagrams PAGE 34 52 113 128 137 156 168 182 190 270 XIV CONTENTS CHAP, PAGE XVI. ON -SOME STATISTICAL INDICATIONS OF A RELATIONSHIP * BETWEEN SCARLATINA, ERYSIPELAS, PUERPERAL FEVER, AND CERTAIN OTHER DISEASEs, with a Map and two Diagrams tº º ºr tº it tº tº & © ... 310 XVII. THE GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF DIPHTHERIA IN ENGLAND AND WALES, with a Diagram tº º . ... 335 XVIII. PHTHIsis, BRONCHITIS, AND PNEUMONIA: ARE THEY EPIDEMIC DISEASEs with four Diagrams ... 368 XIX. A CALGULATION OF THE PROBABILITY OF THE ACGI- DENTAL AND FATAL INCIDENCE OF PHTHISIS UPON BOTH HUSBAND AND WIFE © C & tº 0 & ... 384 XX. THE SEASONAL PREVALENCE OF CONTINUED FEVERS IN LONDON, with two Diagrams © º a ... 394 |XXI. HYDROPHOBLA STATISTICS, with two Diagrams ... 413 XXII, CoNCLUSION * º º © tº ſº e e tº tº º cº- ... 438 NoTE ON AN EPIDEMIC of INFECTIOUS PNEUMONLA IN THE EIGHTEENTH CENTURY ... C ºn tº ... 443 INDEX ... Q & © tº º º tº º º * c e ... 445 PLATE II. III. IV. WI. VII. VIII. IX. XI. XII. XIII. XIV. XV. XVI. YVII. XVIII. XIX. XX. XXI. LIST OF MAPS AND DIAGRAMS. g PAGE Death-rates of Males and Females at various ages ... Q & tº 7 Birth-rate, Death-rate, and Marriage-rate for Fifty years ... 13 Death-rates from certain groups of causes ... tº e > ... 18 Density of Population of the Counties of England and Wales in 1831 tº e º tº e Gº tº gº tº tº dº ſº 28, 29 Density of Population of the Counties of England and Wales } in 1881 tº º ſº gº tº ſº tº º ſº tº º ſº Intra-migration in England and Wales, 1871-81 ... ... 37 Emigration from the United Kingdom ... tº º ſº ... 46 Destinations of Emigrants from the United Kingdom ... 47 Distribution of “Men of Colour” in the United States ... 70 Distribution of Natives of Scandinavia in the United States 81 Distribution of Natives of Germany in the United States ... 83 Distribution of Natives of Ireland in the United States ... 90 Distribution of Natives of Great Britain in the United States 96 Birthplaces of the Inhabitants of the United Kingdom, some British Colonies, and the United States tº e e ... 149 Map of “Greater London” © tº gº © tº º ... 171 London—Average Weekly Deaths from Diarrhoea and from certain other Diseases © e C tº º & © tº tº ... 278 England and Wales—Death-rates from Diarrhoea and certain other Diseases, with Temperature and Rainfall at Greenwich 281 England and Wales—Death-rates from Diarrhoea at various ages tº e º Q & © e G & C ºn England and Wales—Death-rates from Scarlet Fever, Erysipelas, Puerperal Fever, and certain other Diseases, with Rainfall at Greenwich tº gº tº © e O e tº º * - C - ... 313 London—Average Weekly Deaths from Scarlet Fever, Puer- peral Fever, and certain other Diseases tº º º ... 319 Registration Divisions—Death-rates from Erysipelas, Puerperal Fever, and Rheumatism tº gº tº & Cº º & C & ... 330 284 xvi A/ST OF MAPS AAWD DIA GRAMMS PLATE PAGE XXII. Distribution of Diphtheria in England and Wales... 342 XXIII. England and Wales—Death-rates from Phthisis, Bronchitis, . Pneumonia, and certain other Diseases © tº º ... 371 XXIV. London—Weekly Deaths from Bronchitis and Pneumonia, in certain years, with Temperature tº $ tº ... 376 XXV. London—Average Weekly Deaths from Phthisis, Bronchitis, Pneumonia, and certain other Diseases tº º ... 377 XXVI. England and Wales—Death-rates of Males and Females fro Pneumonia, at various ages tº º º © tº cº- ... 379 XXVII. Continued Fevers in London—Deaths and Admissions to Hospitals e º 'º * : * > tº $ tº tº º ºs ... 402 XXVIII. Scarlet Fever in London—Weekly Deaths and Admissions to Hospitals * * * te e e tº tº e tº ſº tº ... 405 XXIX. Cases of Rabies in Dogs, and Deaths from Hydrophobia in London ... tº º º tº º tº tº te vº $º º º 422 XXX. Distribution of Hydrophobia in England and Wales 433 STUDIES IN STATISTICS. CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTORY. MISTRUST of statistics is very general. On all hands one hears the remark, “You can prove anything by statistics.” The true and sufficient reply to this taunt is, “Without statistics you can prove nothing.” Men as a rule form their judgments from a few instances that happen to have been brought prominently before their notice, but as these instances may have been exceptional in their character, the judgments formed are but too likely, as all experience proves, to be most erroneous. Social and political phenomena rarely allow themselves to be fitted into the rigid figures of the logician, but rather resemble indeterminate equations with many unknown quantities, and reasoning applied to such phenomena takes the modified form of probable reasoning. But although the data of sociology are not definite enough for exact mathematical treatment, they are often sufficient to admit of such an application of the numerical method as will yield a first approximation to a solution. It is unreasonable surely to say that, because a result mathematically accurate is unattainable, therefore we B 2 STUDIES IN STA TYSTICS CHAP. should be content with mere guesses founded upon the personal experience of individuals. Should we not rather collect facts on the broadest basis available, and reason from these ? Because the statistician cannot predict social crises as the astronomer predicts eclipses, is he to be precluded from demonstrating present tendencies and indicating their probable results? Surely again it is no more reasonable to condemn statistics, because many men cannot marshal figures correctly, than it would be to deny the utility of geometry, because many boys fail to master the first few propositions of Euclid. The truth is that whereas almost every one thinks that he can understand figures, and read their meaning, the clear-headed statistician is a somewhat rare being, and by no means every one who writes papers full of tables of figures, even though he may write “F.S.S.” after his name, is to be trusted as a safe guide in the matter. Because the statist as a rule makes little use of the higher mathematics, and performs most of his operations by means of the simple rules of arithmetic, it by no means follows that a sound knowledge of arithmetic, even if supplemented by readiness in using logarithms, the calculating machine, or the slide-rule, is a sufficient educational basis for the statistician. On the contrary, paradoxical though it appear, arithmetic has but a minor part to play. The primary requisite is a logical mind and a sound logical training; the second (and not less important) is a good general knowledge of the subject to which the figures under consideration relate. Only a chemist is likely to derive information from a new chemical experiment; in like manner the statistician must be now a banker, now a farmer, now a merchant, now a doctor, according as he is manipulating figures relating to currency, crops, tariffs, or causes of death. I - ANZTA’ODUCTORY 3 —— After this short apology, I leave the reader to judge whether the following chapters prove the confessedly imperfect science of statistics to be capable of affording interest and profit, or rather confirm the popular opinion that such studies are ever barren of result. 4. g STUDIES AV STA TVS TYCS CHAP. CHAPTER II. ON DEATH - RATES. THE vital statistician is constantly speaking of “rates,” it is therefore of prime importance to understand clearly what he means by the term. In the year 1881 there died in the town of Preston 2139 persons; in the same year there died in Bristol no fewer than 4054 persons. It is conceivable that some one not versed in such matters might suppose from this that Bristol was a less healthy town than Preston, or that an individual living in Bristol would have run a greater chance of dying during that year, than an individual living in Preston. But such an inference would be wholly illegitimate, and would be contrary to fact. Bristol had in that particular year 207,522 inhabit- ants, but Preston only 93,932, therefore on the assump- tion that each individual Bristolian or Prestonian was equally likely (or unlikely) to die, it will be seen that as only one Bristolian out of every fifty-one died, but one Prestonian out of every forty-four, so far from the in- ference that Preston was the more healthy place of the two being correct, the precise contrary was the fact, and a Prestonian was more likely than a Bristolian to die in the proportion of 51 : 44. The simplest way to make the comparison in such a case, is to find out how many died in proportion to every 100, 1000, or 10,000 * These figures are taken from the Registrar-General's Annual Summary of Births, Deaths, &c. for 1881, pp. xiv. and xviii. II OAV ZDEA TH-AEA TES 5 living at the time in each town respectively. Arithme- tically this is done by multiplying the number of deaths by 100, 1000, or 10,000, and dividing by the population. The result is called the death-rate per cent., per thousand, or per ten thousand, as the case may be, and these “death-rates,” speaking generally, are comparable one with another. In practice the labour of working out these rates is usually shortened by making use of tables of logarithms, slide-rules, or the ingenious machine known as the arithmometer, invented by M. Thomas of Colmar, and since greatly improved by our countryman, Mr. Tate. In most cases it is found convenient to calculate birth- rates, death-rates, and marriage-rates at so much per thousand per annum ; hence unless some other number is named, it may be assumed that the rate is “per thousand.” In the instances given we get— For Preston: Death-rate per 1000 = ** = —ºr = 22.8 & D2×1000 4054 × 1000 10. For Bristol: Death-rate per 1000 = ** = T207,55T - 19:6 and these numbers are in the same ratio of 51 : 44. The formula shows that for every thousand persons living in the town of Preston in 1881, 22.8 persons died, whereas in Bristol only 19.6 persons in every thousand inhabitants died. In other words the death-rate of Preston in 1881 was 22.8 per thousand, in Bristol 19.6 per thousand, and other things being equal, we may fairly assume that in that year Preston was less healthy than Bristol. I have said other things being equal. It is assumed when, the healthiness of towns is measured by their death- rates, that on the average the deaths bear a constant proportion to the cases of sickness, or to the general health of the people, and when large populations are considered ‘6 STUDIES IN STATISTICS CHAP. for long periods this is probably correct. Of course the proportion of deaths to cases of sickness varies enormously in different diseases; hydrophobia, for example, is always fatal in a few days; chicken-pox, a commoner ailment, very rarely kills. When, moreover, one population is compared with another, it is most important to know in what respects the populations differ. Now quite apart from occupation, surroundings, or social position, it is a well-established, indeed an obvious, fact that age has a paramount effect on liability to disease and death, while sea, has also an important influence. In other words, in any given population the death-rates of males and females are different ; still more different are the death-rates of infants, adults, and aged people. The death-rates at different ages vary slightly from time to time, as will be seen hereafter. The following are the rates that prevailed in the ten years 1871-81– ENGLAND AND WALES. I 0 YEARS 1871-80. DEATH-RATES FROM ALL CAUSES PER THOUSAND LIVING AT WARIOUS AGES AND GROUPS- OF AGES." Ages. Males. Females. O-I . . . ... 1974 ... © tº º I57'3 I—2 © e e e e º " 68.3 © C & e e > 63-6 2–3 ... tº tº º 27-9 ... e - to 27°5 3–4 ... tº e º 18-1 * * * * @ e I7-9 4–5 © tº gº e - - 13-3 • & © e 6 e I2'9 5—IO ... s & © 6.7 ... & 6 º' 6°2 Io–I5 ... e tº e 3.7 ... tº ſº e 3.7 I 5–20 ... tº e > 5:2 ... ... 5'4 20–25 ... tº tº º 7-3 ... © tº e 6-8 25–35 ... e - © 9.3 º, & tº e - © 8-6 35-45 . . . . . . 13.7 ... ... II-6 45–55 ... º º º 20-1 * @ e tº tº e I5'6 55–65 ... e - © 34.8 ... e - e. 28'5 65–75 ... * * * 69.6 ... tº º & 6o ‘I 75 and upwards ... 169-1 tº ſº º e e Q I55'8 The same facts are represented “graphically,” as it is S E 9 v 09 001 091 002 º NLAIT 00.01 ±e. SH_Lvºd C13 A S BTW W B !·× Ov-18 SB.TV/W " Sººſ -10 Sed noſſº) º SB15)\， S nſ0.18\! A lºſ 0N I AIT CINVSn0H1 AJ3） SESTAVO TTV WOW！!！! Sºlvº HIVECI TV/m.N.Nº *09 – 1 / 9 l º Sbaeva）. O 1 | _ – → → → → - II O/W DAEA 7TH-AEA 7TES 7 —r- termed, in the diagram (Plate I.). It is the essential principle of this “graphic method” that quantities are represented by the lengths of lines. Thus in this instance ages are measured horizontally from the “origin,” at the left hand bottom corner, towards the right; distances measured along this line are termed in mathematical language “abscissae.” The other quantities, here death- Tates, are measured vertically, such vertical distances being termed “ordinates.” We see from the table that the mean death-rate for males between the ages of 45 and 55 is 20:1. There- fore from the point midway between 45 and 55 on the horizontal scale of ages, we measure vertically an Ordinate equal in length to twenty divisions on the vertical scale of rates to the left hand, and make a mark at its extremity. Similarly for the ages 55 to 65 we measure an ordinate of length = 34.8 (say 35), and make another mark. In like manner marks corresponding to the other quantities are made, and then these marks are joined together by straight lines drawn from point to point. The resultant line is technically termed “a curve,” although it may be far from the idea com- monly given by the word. If we measure an ordinate to a point in this curve midway between any two of our marks, we shall obtain the corresponding arithmetical mean value. This will not generally be the true value, but it will almost always be nearer to the true value than that corresponding to the mark on either side. A nearer approach to true intermediate values might in this case be obtained by connecting the marks with a curved line, instead of a succession of straight lines, but for simplicity's sake I prefer in most cases to use the straight line, letting it be clearly understood that the marks for certain ascertained values are connected together, 8 STUDIES WAV STA 77S 7./CS CHAP. not for the purpose of ascertaining mean values, but to show that the phenomenon under investigation is a con- tinuous one, and above all to render the facts more easy of apprehension through the eye. Some few persons easily grasp the signification of tables of figures, but very many more are readily instructed by the aid of diagrams. From this diagram we see very clearly that in both sexes the mortality is by far the greatest at the two extremes of life, being very heavy in the first year, falling rapidly, but each year with decreasing rapidity, during the second, third, and fourth years, then more gradually until a minimum is reached in the period 10—15 ; from that time it rises slowly, but in an ever- increasing ratio, until by the period 35–45 it is equal to the mortality of the fifth year of life, and by the period 65–75 it is equal to the mortality in the second year. The curve at both extremities, especially that corresponding to old age, is untrustworthy ; on the one hand, the ages at death and the ages in the census reports of very young children, are stated by the informants in a confused manner; and on the other hand, in a majority of cases grave suspicion attaches to the extreme ages often recorded in death certificates, so that for many years the Registrar-General has ceased to divide into groups ages beyond 85, and in some cases even 75. As regards the difference between the sexes, it should be noted that from the third year of life to the thirty- fifth there is practically no difference between the mortality of the two sexes. After the thirty-fifth year females die less rapidly than males, and the difference in their favour increases with age. The superior longevity of women is well known, and to a large extent accounts for the excess of women in this country, four-fifths of that II O/V ZDEA TH-AºA TES 9 excess consisting of widows.” Occupations, habits, and probably to some extent constitutional differences, account for the superior longevity of women; but it is not possible to give any good reason for the great excess of mortality of male infants in the first year of life; it would seem that it must depend upon some constitutional differ- ence ; but whatever it may be, in the second year of life it has almost disappeared. It will now be clearly understood how important it is when comparing the death statistics of two populations, to take into consideration their “age constitution "; that is, the proportions per cent. of males and females at the several ages. As concrete instances, I may give the following—In the year 1883, the recorded death-rate of Bradford was 18:34, and consequently 120 below that of England and Wales; but when due allowance for the age and sex constitution of its population had been made, it appeared that its corrected death-rate was 20:26, or '72 above that of England and Wales. The converse was the case with Norwich, its recorded rate being 1964, or ‘10 above that of England and Wales, its corrected rate 1879, or 75 below it. Manchester again came in that year at the bottom of the list of great towns with a recorded death-rate of 27-64, whereas the unhealthy condition of its population was even worse than it appeared, since after correction its death-rate was 30-80, 1 CEN SUS 1881. Males. Females. Excess of Females. TJnmarried 7,828,210 7,897,529 69,319 Married 4,376,898 4,437,962 61,064 Widowed 434,794 999,046 564,252 Total 12,639,902 13,334,537 694,635 The excess of married women is partly to be explained by husbands absent at sea or abroad; partly by many single women pretending to be married, while many men really married deny the fact. IO SZTUDYES ZAV SZTA 7TWS 7TWCS CHAP. or nearly 60 per cent. above the average of the whole country. These are, however, extreme instances. In the majority of cases the corrections when applied to a town would only slightly raise its death-rate, and when applied to a country district slightly lower it; in short, correction for age and sex distribution usually accentuates the differ- ences between healthy and unhealthy districts. The reason of this is not far to seek. It was pointed out in the annual summary of the Registrar-General for 1883, that “The towns contain, as a rule, a much smaller proportion of aged persons and a much higher proportion of persons in the prime of life, as also a much higher proportion of females (at most ages the death-rate of females is below that of males) than does the country at large; and though these advantages are somewhat counterbalanced by an excess in the proportion of children, they are so to a limited extent only.” The social conditions which lead to more marriages taking place in towns than in country districts are sufficiently obvious: the young of both sexes are drawn into the towns by high wages and by the attractions of town life; the aged are left behind in the country villages. Young men leave their homes to emigrate to the colonies or the United States; young women prefer to remain in England, but go into towns as servants or as shop assistants, hence the excess of women that is usually met with when town is compared with country. The peculiarity of the special incidence of mortality on young infants, so plainly shown in the diagram, has given rise to a curious fallacy which has exercised a charm over a certain class of mind. Sanitary reformers are constantly pointing to the high death-rates of many of our large towns as a proof of sanitary defects. Their opponents (sometimes also sanitary reformers) have called II OW DEA 7TH-AEA TES I I attention to the fact that most of these large towns have not only death-rates much above the average, but also birth-rates quite as markedly in excess. The high birth- rate, the writers say, “it stands to reason " is the cause of the high death-rate, since as is well known the mortality of young infants is excessive. The answer to this argu- ment is twofold: (1) The population of the town and its death-rate may be compared with that of the whole country age for age—if the town mortality proves excessive at each age, or at a majority of the groups of ages, cadit quabstio; but, (2) while it may be admitted that a high birth-rate is likely to lead to a proportionately large number of deaths of infants, the matter does not end there; under the worst circumstances a majority (usually a large majority) of the infants survive the first few dangerous years, and as a result there is a very large proportion of the population living at the healthiest period of life, 5—45. Thus, under the conditions of modern life with a high birth-rate there will be associated a rapidly-increasing population, and consequently an unduly small proportion of elderly persons subject to a high death-rate, as a set-off against the excess of young infants. It will also be readily seen that a high birth-rate is only likely to be met with in a population containing a large proportion of persons at the reproducive ages, i.e. at ages of comparatively low mortality. I 2 STUDIES IN STATISTICS CHAP. *s CHAPTER III. THE BIRTH-, DEATH-, AND MARRIAGE-RATES OF ENGLAND AND WALES FOR FIFTY YEARS. HAVING, as I hope, given the reader a clear idea of what is meant by a death-rate, I purpose, as an introduction to the more detailed and necessarily more technical discussions that follow, to make a few general remarks on births, deaths, and marriages in this country. The facts are set forth in a diagram (Plate II.), which merits careful attention. Civil registration was established in England in 1837, the first year that we have a complete record of being 1838. As would be expected, it was at first far from complete, but the defects in the birth-register are far more numerous than those in the death- and marriage- registers. In addition to stringent legal provisions, it is the obvious interest of the parties concerned to see that a marriage is duly registered, and as regards deaths also the enforcement of registration is comparatively easy; but with births it is far different. A new Act, designed to make registration more complete, came into force on the 1st of January, 1875, which rendered the registration of births compulsory, with penalties for non-performance, and aimed at securing greater accuracy in recording details as to deaths. As is plainly shown in the diagram, the recorded birth- Rare PER 1000 PERSON's Living. E N G LAN ID & W. A. L E S. B1 RTH-FATE, DEATH-RATE & MARRIAGE RATE FOR 50 YEARS. 1838 'ao '42 44 4s 48 '50 '52 '54 '56 'ss 'Go '62 34 'ge '68 7o 72 '74 7e 78 '80 '82 '84 '86 88 32 30 28 H28 26 lăl - Q - 24. - - →- T ----|--|-- -T 24 22 18 |O - - - L-º- i - 4- # § § - +3 HääääH - 2 - Plate II. RATEFER 1000 PERSONS LIVING. 34-MEAN-33-89 MEAN-21-65 Ig-MEAN-16-14 SH 1-LINGS PER QUARTER. 70 60 - T- - 50 - --- ––––– | | | | 50 40 - 30 20 sH1 LLING's PER QUARTER London. Stanfords GeºEstab: III BIRTH., DEATH-, AAWD MARRIAGE-RATES I3 rate was in 1838 only 30.3 per thousand persons living; it rose from that year by irregular steps, interrupted from time to time by sharp falls, to a maximum of 36-3 in 1876; since which time it has fallen, with one trifling exception, uninterruptedly to 30-6 in 1888. We may assume that from 1875 onwards the record is fairly complete, and on the other hand there can be no doubt that in 1838 it was very faulty. From the commencement of civil registration to 1875 the registration of births steadily improved, and probably for several years before the new Act came into force the number of births that escaped registration was, proportionately at all events, very small." This uncertainty about the register deprives the birth- rate curve of some of its value, but the following remarks hold good in spite of its imperfections. In no case has the birth-rate in any one year risen more than 1.4 per thousand. In 1846-7 it fell 2.3 per thousand, but this fall has never been approached before or since. It appears to be partly explained by the fall in the marriage-rate in the same year, which is also unprecedentedly large, both probably having relation to the failure of the potato crop, and the Irish Famine, possibly also to the commercial panic, while the widespread epidemics of influenza and typhus fever may well have had a share in the result. With this exception the birth-rate has never fallen more than 1.0 per thousand in a single year. - Speaking generally, the birth rate corresponds to the * My reason for saying this is, that the illegitimate birth-rate was practically constant (2:23) from 1845-65, from which time it has been slowly falling (to 1-4 in 1888). In addition to the carelessness which might attend the registration of births in general, there would obviously be strong temptations not to register illegitimate births, so that the passing of a stricter Act might have been expected to cause a sudden increase in the number of illegitimate births registered; but as a matter of fact, no such increase took place. I4 * - STUDIAES IAW STA TISTICS . CHAP. marriage-rate, but with marked exceptions, e.g. 1852-3-4. As might be expected, the birth-rate curve tends to follow that of the marriage-rate. The most notable thing about the curve is the continuous fall from 1876 to 1886.” The marriage-rate fell from 17-6 in 1873, to 14.4 in 1879; a total fall of 3.2 per thousand in six years. The birth-rate in the six years, 1876—1882 fell 2.6 per thousand. It is, however, very difficult to show in a simple manner the exact way and extent in which the birth-rate depends upon the marriage-rate. The question of illegitimate births has less effect than might be imagined; the actual number of illegitimate births fluctuates very little from year to year (seldom more than from 1000–2000), while the relative number to population has been slowly but steadily diminishing for twenty years. The marriage-rate naturally calls for attention next. In general terms it forms a curve marked by a succession of waves (which are more marked and more regular in the last twenty years), periods of depression of two to five years alternating with periods of elevation of similar duration. In 1844-5 the rate rose 1.2 per thousand, and after two years fell 1.4 per thousand; in no other case has the annual fluctuation exceeded 1.0 per thousand, and has rarely reached that point. It should be noted that 1845 was a year of great commercial prosperity. At the bottom of the diagram is given the average price of wheat in England in each year from 1839, and also 1 It is well worth noting that the birth-rate fell from 1876-1886 also in Scotland, Ireland, Austria, Germany, Switzerland, the Nether- lands, Belgium, and even France. No similar fall, however, occurred in Italy, Hungary, Norway, Sweden, or Denmark. In most of these countries the marriage-rate also fell, but in nearly all in a less striking manner than the birth-rate; while in the case of Austria, Germany, Belgium, Italy, Sweden, Hungary, and France the fall was inconsiderable. III BIAZA-, DEA 7/H-, AAWD MARK/AGE-RATES I 5 the most notable harvests in this country are indicated. It was at one time stated that the price of wheat had a great influence on the marriage-rate ; that when it fell marriages became more numerous, and vice versä. This very likely was the case at one time, but it certainly has not been the case for the last eighteen years. It will be noted also, as might be expected, that in recent times the quality of the harvest in this country has had little or no effect upon the price of corn. Still there is no doubt whatever, that the Russian war, and to a still more marked degree successively recurring periods of commercial depression have had a very distinct and very uniform effect in bringing down the marriage-rate; this is very clearly shown in the diagram." The last wave in the marriage-rate, the crest corre- sponding to 1882, seems to have produced little or no effect upon the birth-rate, which has continued to fall. About the death-rate there is much more to be said. In the first place, as the diagram shows plainly, it is much more irregular in its fluctuations than either the birth-rate or marriage-rate. Its curve is of a more jerky character, rising or falling abruptly; thus, fluctuations of 1.5 per thousand are common, a rise of 2:1 has occurred twice, a similar fall once, and on one occasion a fall of 4.3 per thousand. These sudden and extreme fluctuations are to a large extent caused by epidemics, of which several of the principal are indicated in the diagram. The recent epidemics which are most notable as measured by their effect upon the death-rate, or the rarity of their occurrence, are shown in the following table— 1 This chapter was written some time before Dr. Ogle read his valuable paper On Marriage-Rates and Marriage-Ages, with special reference to the Growth of Population, to the Royal Statistical Society in March 1890. - * I6 S7'UDIES IN STA TYS 7TWCS chAP. - Death- tºº. - Death-Rate Year. Rate. above Nature of Epidemic. from. average. Epidemic. I. II. III. IV. V. 1838 22°4 | + o-I Small-pox 1 - 1 1847 24-7 || + 2-4 Typhus 1-8 1848 23-0 | + o-'7 Influenza 0.5 1849 25:1 | + 2.8 Cholera 3-0 1854 23°5 | + I'2 Cholera 1-1 1858 23: 1 || + o-8 Scarlatina 1-2 1863 - 23-0 | + o'7 Scarlatina 1.5 I864 23.7 | + I'4 Scarlatina 1-4 I866 23:4 | + I’I Cholera O-7 I868 21:8 — o'5 Diarrhoea. 1-4 1870 22.9 || + o-6 Scarlatina 1-4 1871 22-6 || + o-3 Small-pox 1-0 1872 21-3 || — I'o Small-pox 0-8 Average 1838—1872 22:3 - It will of course be borne in mind that the influence of an epidemic in raising the general death-rate largely depends upon its being an exceptional occurrence, e.g. an epidemic of cholera is wholly exceptional in this country, as the disease only visits our shores at distant intervals. Again, in these days of vaccination the average annual mortality from small-pox is but trifling, and considerable epidemics, such as that of 1871-2, are fortunately of rare occurrence. As regards typhus fever, difficulties of nomen- clature and diagnosis complicate the question too much for discussion at present. Measles and whooping-cough are most decidedly epidemic diseases, but they are never absent, and epidemics of these diseases, often severe, but usually circumscribed, occur so frequently in different parts of the country, that the difference of mortality for the whole of England and Wales in the most fatal and least fatal years is comparatively small. The cases of scarlatina and diarrhoea occupy a somewhat intermediate position. Roughly speaking, each of these diseases caused IIf B7RTH., DEA 7TH-, AA’D MARA/AGE-RATES 17 on the average of the thirty years 1850-79, an annual mortality of 0.9 per thousand, but in individual years it has varied from 0-4 to 1.4 per thousand, so that a large proportion of the mortality from these causes in especially fatal years may be termed exceptional. They kill large numbers every year, consequently the total mortality caused by an epidemic of either of them cannot, at least in our present stage of sanitary progress, be regarded as an exceptional addition to the mortality of the year in which it occurs. - - It has often been asserted by persons imperfectly acquainted with the facts that epidemics do not on the whole materially affect the general death-rate, since the individuals who succumb to their attacks would, had there been no epidemic, have died of some other cause ; it is moreover alleged that in the main they kill off unhealthy persons, and in consequence lead to a low mortality in the years immediately following. I will not deny that there is some truth in these assertions, but any benefit to the average health standard of the community that may result from an epidemic removing weakly individuals, is completely overwhelmed by the permanent injury that in too many cases results to the constitutions of those who are attacked by the epidemic, and indeed escape from death, but recover imperfectly, and have to go through life weakened or maimed. We have, in short, to deal not only with killed but with wounded. A glance at column III. of the table will show that in eleven out of the thirteen epidemic years the general death-rate exceeded the average, though in only six cases by an amount at all corresponding to the ravages of the epidemic. The cholera of 1849 was not only the most serious epidemic of any kind that has visited this island during the last fifty years, but the one that most C I8 STUD/AES MAV STA 7TWST/CS - CHAP. directly increased the death-rate. This, however, is not without its compensations. To the fearful lessons of that summer and autumn, and to the still more terrible suffer- ings of our troops before Sebastopol in the winter of 1854-5, more than to any other circumstances do we owe that movement of public opinion which produced not only sanitary legislation, but, what is far more, that improved sanitary practice which has resulted in a remark- able freedom from serious epidemics and a striking fall in the death-rate in the last fourteen years." The diagram shows, moreover, that it is by no means universally true that epidemic years are followed by years of low mortality; in seven out of the thirteen instances they were followed by high mortalities, in four cases by epidemic years. The next diagram (Plate III.) throws more light on this subject. The method of representation is here some- what different, the death-rates being represented by coloured areas. Confining our attention in the first place to the upper part of the diagram, it will be seen that the death-rate each year is represented by a column of colour, part blue, part red. The red portion corresponds to so much of the death-rate as is due to the ravages of Small- Pox, Measles, Scarlet Fever, Diphtheria, Whooping-Cough, Continued Fever (Typhus, Enteric, and Simple), and Cholera. The blue, much the larger portion, represents the deaths per thousand due to all other causes. The diminishing length of the red columns towards the right-hand of the diagram shows clearly enough that, what for shortness we may term the Epidemic Diseases, are far less fatal now than in the first twenty-five years * Sanitary Fundamentals: two Lectures delivered at the Royal Naval College, by J. Netten Radcliffe. The Practitioner, vol. xxi. pp. 140– 160, and pp. 221–240. Macmillan and Co., 1878. 98 w8, 28, 08, 91, 91, +1, ZL, O.L. 89, 99, tº Zºº, O9 8s. 95, 93, 2G, OS 9W, O s º 0| Ol 1-41 - 99-1991 NV3 W G| at Z:31: 99-1991 NVaw *: ONIAIT CI O O | I z Z 9-º- e-º s: # NVEW 98-1991 NV3 W tº + O O | | Z 2 O tº O † - 2 - | + † 99-1991 2 Z s - 2- NV3 W g 3-2 99-Z+9. + + w º s O+ O 2 z 94. * 9 84. 8 oit tº Ol zi+. &I tºl % Ø +] gºt tº * 8. c.oz. 9° Oz Twlol - O NWEW 98-1981 ZZ ZZ 9 - Zz- TVLOL +ONVEN +2 tº 99 -48 snian * * onian OOOI ºrd OOO 1 ºdºc S.H.I.V.E.C. ** Tºo Tºe as Tos s. 22 ºz. z. o. as ee to ze, oe as os, vs. 2s os, ev. “qaa Gaytºv w ‘sus WWns LOH a ſm"Ig C13 yibv W. “SuslniM Cluvh 3 nº.19 G3 uſh OTOO ~ SESſhvo ºr HIO TTV WOb- "Clau Gakino too "vºloho WOM: 78 SAHA33-GHſimilNOO 3Tie. WIS & O 18.3.LN3 ‘Snheal “Honoo ºnidooHM ‘wluahlheld ‘uaaaa LaTºyos 'Saiswaw ‘XO3 TTV WS WOHH 9NIAIT SNOSH3d GNVSſloh.L. 93d SHIVBG * STEIVEIX- XLºIO I S GITVM. º. CINVTº) NIGH III BJRTH-, DEATH-, AAWD MARRIAGE-RA 7ES I 9 out of the forty illustrated. This is shown perhaps still more clearly in the middle part of the diagram, where the death-rates from these diseases are set out separately in red. Comparing the first twenty years with the second, the mean epidemic death-rate fell from 3:46 to 2-43 per thousand, that is to say, no less than 30 per cent. ; similarly the mean death-rate from all other causes fell from 19:15 to 18°58 per thousand, or only three per cent., a striking contrast. As regards the death-rate from other causes, it should be observed that the decline has occurred mainly in the last six years. This subject is, however, treated in great detail in Chapter XIV., so I will say no more about it here. - As early as 1848, and again in 1855, important Acts were passed by the legislature dealing with the public health, as well as a number of measures that indirectly tended to its improvement. In his report to the Privy Council for 1866, Sir John Simon said, “The date of this change—the passing of the Sanitary Act, 1866–marks the beginning of a new era in the progress of sanitary reform.” This Act was amended in 1868, and consider- ably strengthened in 1872, and all the Sanitary Acts were consolidated (except for the metropolis) by the comprehensive Act of 1875. It would appear reasonable to infer that the decline in the mortality due to epidemic diseases, so notable in the last fifteen years, is closely connected with this activity in sanitary legislation. At the same time some part of it may well be attributed to more rational methods of medical treatment, and to improved nursing. - Those who are familiar with these matters will note that I have not included among the epidemic diseases here one that is so classed in the official returns—I mean diarrhoea—a disease which is mainly fatal to infants, and 2O - STUDIES IN STATIST/CS CHAP. more especially in the summer months. It must not be assumed that I consider Summer diarrhoea to have been wrongly placed by Dr. Farr in the class of “zymotic” diseases; far from it. I differ strongly from those who hold that the summer diarrhoea of great cities is a purely “climatic * disease. At the same time it is far more directly, and it might almost be said uniformly, affected by temperature than any other disease of the zymotic class (save perhaps cholera). It appeared, therefore, for my present purpose better to group diarrhoea with the other causes of death, many of which are especially influenced by meteorological conditions. * - Lower down in the diagram are shown the deaths. from diarrhoea per thousand living, coloured yellow. Just above will be seen some red marks; these indicate unusually hot summers. Corresponding to each of these will be noted a rise in the diarrhoea mortality. Simi- larly the death-rates from “diseases of the respiratory system ’’ (but not including phthisis or consumption) are given in green. Above are blue marks, placed on the lines dividing certain years from the next ; these indicate exceptionally hard winters, and correspond more or less closely with increases in the mortality from respiratory diseases. Finally in black are given all the remaining deaths. It is plain that by successively subtracting (1) the chief epidemic diseases, (2) diarrhoea and (3) respiratory diseases, we have produced a curve marked by much less conspicuous fluctuations than the one we started with. In the original curve the fluctuation from year to year amounted to one per thousand and upwards in fifteen cases, even such fluctuations as 2:1 and 4:3 occurring. After abstraction of the epidemic diseases, fluctuations of one per thousand and upwards are seen only six times, and the maximum is 1:8; finally, after abstracting diarrhoea III BIRTH-, DEATH-, AAWD MARRIAGE-RATES 2 I and the diseases of the respiratory system, the maximum fluctuation is 1:3, and even that is exceptionally large. Speaking generally, the meaning of this is that two-thirds of the deaths in this country are due to causes which do not fluctuate greatly from year to year, although when long periods are taken into consideration, changes, which may be termed ‘secular, are apparent. This question is, however, dealt with in some detail in the chapter on the decline of the death-rate in recent years. 22 S 7"UDIES MAV S 7.4 7TWSTICS CHAP. CHAPTER IV. THE GROWTH OF POPULATION IN ENGLAND. How the present century may compare with those that are to come we can have little or no idea, but that the contrast between the 19th century and those which preceded it will always be emphasized by the historians of the future, perhaps even more than by those of the present, is certain. What, then, are the cardinal facts that lie at the bottom of this contrast ! What causes have led to the remarkable developments of the past fifty years 2 The matter may, I think, be summed up in a sentence. The application of novel mechanical appliances has rendered possible an unparalleled increase of population, by bringing within reach unlimited supplies of food. I do not concern myself with Oriental nations nor with periods of remote antiquity, but with these limit- ations I maintain that such an increase of population as has been witnessed during the last fifty years in Europe and its daughter-states in the New Worlds of the West and South, has never been seen before. Those wonderful mechanical triumphs of the age, the locomotive and the steamship—in the development of which our country has played a leading part—have brought to our very doors, as it were, tracts of land so vast as to seem to the wearied imagination illimitable ; land for the most V THE GROWTH OF AOPULA 7TWOAV ZAV AZAVGZAAWD 23 part with a fertile virgin soil, land moreover within the temperate zone, and fitted by its healthy climate for settle- ment by Europeans. This land has existed for thousands of years at the very least, much of it has been known to Europe (though very imperfectly) for several centuries, but it has only been readily accessible for a few decades. The opening up of this land has afforded unlimited employment and unlimited supplies of food. If what I have here said be true—and it cannot be denied—it is evident that the great expansion of the 19th century is not only exceptional but absolutely unique, since nothing exactly like it can ever occur again. The growth of population may indeed go on—doubtless it will go on—applied science will provide our descendants with ingenious contrivances as yet not dreamed of, but no fresh mechanical inventions can discover for us vast regions of fertile soil lying under a temperate sun. Such lands will be discovered in detail, on a small scale ; new railways will be built, opening up corn-producing lands as yet unmapped ; but no such marvel is in store as the opening up of the great western prairies of North America, or the colonization of such an island as Australia. That the recent increase of population is absolutely enormous it will be easy to show, that it is exceptional I shall not attempt to prove. It would indeed require an antiquarian essay to which I am wholly unequal; the reader must accept my bare statement. England and Wales alone add 1000 a day to the population of the world !! That is to say, over and above reserve men who fill up the gaps caused by death, a fresh 1 Forty-Third Annual Report of the Registrar-General. Average of the five years 1876-80—Daily births, 2425; daily deaths, 1426. The averages for the five years 1882-6 were—Daily births, 2456; daily deaths, 1441. 24. STUDIES /W STA TWS TVCS CHAP. regiment at full war strength daily marches to the front. Where is this regiment ultimately quartered ? What becomes of the people 3 The census of 1881, and the Registrar-General's reports, supply the means of obtaining an answer to this question as follows— T)AILY INCREASE OF THE PEOPLE OF TENGLAND AND WALES AND THEIR ULTIMATE DESTINATIONS.l Daily Daily Daily increase. destination. migrants. London - - - tº e Q tº e e 133 e - e. 1.65 e e Q + 32 19 large towns tº e & e e - 135 Q - 156 tº - G + 21 56 other towns gº e & tº º e 140 tº º º 199 © 2 tº + 59 Rest of England and Wales 592 * * * 437 tº e e — 155 Countries beyond the sea ... -*. © & © 43 * - © + 43 Total ºn tº e ... 1000 1000 0 Put shortly into words, and remembering that we are dealing on the one hand with the excess of births over deaths and on the other with excess of emigrants over immigrants (the latter comprising Irish from Ireland, Scotch from Scotland, as well as returned colonists and European foreigners settling in England), the table says that the natural growth of population in London is 133 a day, reinforced by 32 daily immigrants, mostly from the country districts; that of the 19 large towns of the Registrar-General, comprising together a population in 1881 1 This table was constructed as follows—The 19 large towns are thosé given in the Quarterly Returns for 1881; the 56 other towns comprise the 50 towns given in the same Reports, with the addition of the rapidly- growing towns of Croydon, West Ham, Stockton-on-Tees, Aston Manor, Burnley, and Ystradyfodwg, The populations of these places in 1871 and 1881 were taken from the census, and the births and deaths from the Reports. Certain adjustments were required in the cases of Barrow- in-Furness and Middlesborough, which, as those registration districts were not formed till after 1871, involved taking Stockton as one of the towns. Some minor alterations of boundaries were neglected, hence the figures IV THE GROWTH OF AZOAP UAA TION /AW EAVG/LA WD 25 of 3% millions, is 135 a day, reinforced by 21 countrymen; that of the next 56 towns, comprising a population in 1881 of 3% millions (say another London), is 140 a day, reinforced by 59 daily immigrants; while the residue of England and Wales, comprising the smaller towns and more rural districts, increasing through excess of births over deaths by 592 a day, after sending 112 recruits to London and the 75 great towns, send yet another 43 emigrants to seek new homes across the seas. In recent years emigration has been proceeding on an unusually large scale, but as a set-off against this, the daily excess of births over deaths tends to increase; indeed forty years ago it amounted to only 500 a day." It does not therefore seem unreasonable to suppose that this rapid production of human beings may continue unchecked to the beginning of the next century. The in the following table have no pretension to exactness, but they are quite near enough for the purpose. TEN YEARS 1871–80. London 19 large towns 56 other towns Rest of England and Wales Births 1871-80. Deaths 1871-80. Natural increase. Population 1871. Population 1881. Actual In Grea.Se. Gain or loss by migration 1,245,441 1,337,512 1,201,546 4,804,283 790,966 877,283 721,749 2,788,313 454,475 460,229 479,797 2, OI5,97O 3,254,260 3,230,957 2,869,364 13,357,685 Total ... 8,588,782 5,178,311 3,4IO,47 I 22,712,266 3,816,483 3,763,842 3,547,235 14,846,879 562,223 532,885 677,871 I,489, 194 + 107,748 + 72,656 + 198,074 – 526,776 25,974,439 3, 262, I 73 – 148,298 (The balance, 148,298, represents the net emigration from England and Wales during the decennium.) Then taking the number of daily births and daily deaths (as in years 1876-80) such as to give a natural increase of 1000 a day, and assuming the same distribution of the people to be now going on as during the decennium ending with the last census, the figures in the table in the text were deduced. 1 The Reports of the Registrar-General show for the 5 years 1848-52 the daily births to have been 1628; the daily deaths, 1101; daily increase, 527. 26 SZTUD/ES ZAV SZTA 7TWS 77CS' CHAP. result of twenty years, that is from the census of 1881 to that of 1901, assuming the people to be distributed in the same manner, would be in round numbers— PROBABLE INCREASE IN 20 YEARs 1881–1901. London ... © tº e e e is º e e 1,200,000 75 large towns ... tº e tº tº Gº º 2,600,000 Rest of England and Wales ... e G - 3,200,000 Emigrants 0 0 & tº tº e te 300,000 Total tº a º © e º 7,300,000 Presuming that accommodation will have to be found in England and Wales by A.D. 1901 for some 7 millions more persons than were enumerated at the last census, the first point to be noticed is that more than half (52 per cent.) of this large addition will be given to our already teeming cities and towns," less than half (44 per cent.) to the hamlets, villages, and smaller towns that make up the population, that for convenience we may term rural, though perhaps strictly speaking it scarcely merits that designation. To any one who has compared the physique of militia and volunteer battalions recruited in the country with the like recruited in towns, this will be painfully suggestive for the future of the people of England. The concentration of the people in certain parts of England and Wales is illustrated by the adjoining table, which gives the number of persons to the square mile in each registration county as determined by the census of 1831, and again, fifty years later, in 1881. In two Welsh counties there was a trifling decrease; in twenty-one English and nine Welsh counties the increase was com- paratively small, under 100 to each square mile. On the other hand, in London, Surrey, Middlesex, Stafford, Warwick, Lancaster, West York, Durham, Monmouth, and The smallest of these towns, Colchester, had in 1881 over 28,000 inhabitants. .* IV THE GROWTH OF POPULA TWOW WAV EAVGZA WD 27 Glamorgan the density more than doubled. Over 400 additional persons were in the half century placed upon every square mile of Stafford, Warwick, West York, Durham, Glamorgan, and the parts of Middlesex and Surrey outside the metropolitan area; over 1000 upon every one of the 2,043 square miles of the large county of Lancashire, while in the three registration counties of which London is made up, the additional numbers crowded upon each square mile were no less than 6,000, 18,000, and 26,000 respectively DENSITY OF POPULATION IN THE REGISTRATION COUNTIES OF ENGLAND AND WALES, SHOWING THE CHANGES IN FIFTY YEARS. 1831. 1881. || Increase. 1831. 1881. ||Increase. Metropolitan Middlesex|25,300|51,823| 26,523. Rutland 127 | 137 10 3 3 Surrey 9,336|27,925 || 18,589 Lincoln 115 171 56 3 3 Kent 2,456, 8,550|| 6,094. Nottingham 258 465|| 207 Surrey (Extra Met.) 22 I | 651 430|Derby 241 444|| 203 Kent , , , , 263| 468 205 Chester 316 || 619|| 303 Sussex 186| 334 148. Lancaster ... 666 |1,706|| 1040 Hampshire 192|| 351 159 West York 36o 792|| 432 Berkshire ... tº e e 193| 276 83|East York 174 || 333|| 159 Middlesex (Extra Met.) 439| 1,365 926||North York 93 171 78 Hertford ... * & 214, 293 79. Durham .. 207 | 732|| 525 Buckingham 2O4] 243 39||Northumberland | 118 215|| 97 Oxford 2OI 237 86. Cumberland II2 | 165 53 Northampton 18O 280 100 Westmorland 7o 82 12 Huntingdon 158| 167 9|Monmouth 169 351|| 182 Bedford 2O6| 321 115|Glamorgan 147 576|| 429 Cambridge 165| 213 48. Carmarthen III | 1.47 36 Essex 2O8 391 183|Pembroke ... I3 I I51 20 Suffolk 2O5| 244 39|Cardigan ... 98 || 102 4 Norfolk 188| 214 26. Brecknock 7o 78 8 Wiltshire ... 182| 201 19|Radnor 5O 54 4. Dorset I6O| 194 84|Montgomery 85 | 84|| 1–1 Devon 192|| 237 45|Flint 308 || 398 90 Cornwall ... 22O || 238 18||Denbigh ... I34 192 58 Somerset ... 253 294 41 ||Merioneth 6O 9] 31 Gloucester 324| 479 155 Carnarvon 131 223||| 92 Hereford ... I33| 146 13||Anglesea ... 194 | 183|||— 11 Shropshire I62| 182 20 Stafford 354|| 840 486 Worcester 3OO 564 264|England & Wales|239 446|| 207 Warwick ... 362 766 404 Leicester ... 241 391 150 * Decrease. 28 - STUDIES IN STA 7TWS 77CS CHAP. The two maps (Plates IV. and W.) show some of these changes in a perhaps more striking manner; the gradual growth of the grey and black areas, representing the more densely populated counties with upwards of 300 persons to the square mile, at the expense of the green areas representing the counties of more purely agricultural character with sparser populations, is plainly seen, notably in the case of Durham, South Wales, and the home counties. Let us now consider for a moment what arrangements must be made for the reception of these 7 millions. They will all require educating ; a large but uncertain fraction will have spiritual wants; they will all have bodily wants. A small fraction will be afflicted in mind, a much larger fraction in body and estate, some also will be morally afflicted. Over 14 millions will be of school age, and for these schools will be needed. As regards spiritual wants, about 34 millions will be between the ages of 20 and 60." Now the Official Year-Book of the Church of England gives detailed figures which prove that almost exactly one quarter of all the children in the country of a suitable age are confirmed. Making then every allowance for aged, sick, indifferent, and backsliders, it will probably be within the mark to assume that church accommodation will be required for one-fourth of all above ten years of age; this would give 1% millions; but to be on the safe side we will say one million more or less regular attendants on the services of the Church of England. As to Nonconformists we have fewer data to go upon, but the required accom- modation for them can scarcely be put lower than half a million. Calculating then from the figures of the * Of course none of those born since 1881 will be of these ages, but the children of to-day will then be grown up, while the middle-aged of to-day will then be old. Plate IV. 5. 4. -ā- 2" 1. 0. I' - # /ſº | | | | 5g - —sº º ENGLAND & WALES Sc --- - Miles 0. lo. 5 *:: *. 40 ºn ------ Persons to the Square mile - Census 1831 55- –55 CUMBERLANDº º * º - - 2 No RTH YORK 541– - H54. LINGOLN - - - º - 521— º º: - HEREFORE’s L º - º: t º - 51H- someºser º: - - º º º - º ----” PFY 9 NHººponser N º º º Sparse counties Dense counties 50 E. | under too = 3oo-soo —50. too – 200 500 – IOOO El 200 – 3oo over looo 5" 4. 3 2. Tw.cr. To 1 E.Gr London: Edward Stanford Iondon, Stanfords Geogº Estab: ENGLAND & WALES º ºn-º-º: Sparse counties underloo NORTHYORK Scale of English Miles - - - - 20 30 - 50 --- Persons to the Square mile Census 188! Dense counties 300-500 - IOO - 200 H 5oo-ooo 2do-3oo - over looo —l | | | | 5 4. 3. 2 1 W. Gr O 1 E. Gr. London: Edward Stanford. London, Stanfords Geogº Estab IV THE GROWTH OF POPULA 7TWOAV ZAV ACAVG/LA WD 29 census and other sources," it may be inferred that by 1901 the following new public buildings will be required. Schools for ... tº € $ 1,500,000 children Churches for ... tº º º 1,000,000 Anglicans Chapels for ... Q e º 500,000 Nonconformists Asylums for ... tº e in 15,000 lunatics and idiots? Hospitals for ... © tº º 6,000 sick (at least) Institutions for tº gº tº 400 blind Institutions for tº tº wº 300 deaf and dumb Prisons for tº G & e tº e 7,000 criminals Workhouses and schools for 48,000 paupers It is to be hoped that the last two items have been over-estimated, but on the other hand many public in- stitutions have been entirely omitted from the reckoning, and we may in any case feel quite sure that during the next twenty years there will be ample scope for the exertions of the Religious,” the Benevolent, and the Rate-collector. At this point I will pause for one moment to call the earnest attention of economists to one of the results of modern legislation, with its increasing tendencies to State socialism. Between 1875 and 1887 (that is, prior to Mr. Göschen's separation of the Loans for Local Works) the National Debt was reduced from £768,945,757 to 4.736,278,688, that is to say, by some 32% millions sterling.” This is primá facie a very satisfactory result for twelve years. It is, however, not so well known as it should be, that during the like period the indebtedness * For inmates of institutions, see The Charities Register and Digest. Longmans, 1884. * In the county of London alone the average increase in the number of lunatics and imbeciles to be maintained in the pauper asylums amounts to 258 annually (from 1st Jan. 1884 to 1st Jan. 1889). º ° Our bishops might well take into consideration the advisability of making more use of existing buildings by increasing the number of services and clergy—and by more adequate ventilation. 4 Statistical Abstract, 1889. 3O STUDIES IN S 7.4 TWS 77CS CHAP. of the local authorities of England and Wales alone increased from £92,820,100 to £186,821,642, or by no less than 94 millions sterling; in fact, the Local Debt was more than doubled during the same twelve years! Thus the total indebtedness, not to speak of Scotland and Ireland, had increased by 61% millions ! During the eight financial years 1880-88 the amount levied in rates increased from £22,000,000 to £27,000,000, or by nearly 23 per cent.” I do not for one moment deny that many and great benefits have resulted from this vast expenditure, but I do assert emphatically, that it behoves those among us who would do everything by Act of Parliament to bear constantly in mind that some one will have to pay, and usually to pay heavily, for a “Progressive” policy. It may be noted in passing that, calculating from the average density of those portions of the metropolis that have ceased to grow in population, which we find to be about 200 persons to the acre, these 7 millions of persons will require for their habitations and streets, with but a very small allowance for open spaces, at least 35,000 acres of land, though, considering the fact that suburban populations cover far more ground, the space actually occupied will probably not fall short of 70,000 acres, which of course must be withdrawn from cultivation. To explain the extraordinary increase of population in modern times we must analyze the factors upon which it depends. We will take first the causes that tend directly to diminish population ; they are three—war, disease, and famine. Wars are now scarcely less frequent than in the past, and perhaps more severe, but they are far shorter * Nineteenth Report of the Local Government Board, pp. clxxx, clxxxi. 2 Ibid. p. 592. IV 7 HE GROWTH OF POPULATION IN EAWGLAAWD 3 I in duration. With the enormous armies and deadly weapons of to-day the numbers killed in action may not be less, but modern campaigns are conducted with far more consideration for the men taking part in them, and above all they are more decisive, so that the pestilences which in former times followed armies in their long-drawn- out campaigns, claiming far more victims than shot and shell,” are now reduced to insignificant dimensions. At the same time the longer intervals of peace and general prosperity, with ample supplies of food, have led to rapid multiplication of the species. As births are the one cause of increase of population, so deaths are the one cause of limitation of that increase. The death-rate depends upon a number of circumstances which are more or less mutually interdependent. Thus Season affects the death-rate, extremes of heat, cold, or drought increase it ; mild weather and rain diminish it; Famime, partly dependent on season, is in some places and at some times a potent factor in checking population ; War, often leading to famine, still more often to pestilence, is in modern Europe a more frequently acting cause than famine, but hardly so potent; Pestilence, spread by war, fostered by famine, and regulated to a great extent by season, has a very potent effect upon the death-rate. It is, however, very rarely nowadays that epidemics occur on a sufficiently large scale to produce an appreciable effect * While these pages were going through the press, the greatest living strategist, breaking his habitual “silence in seven languages,” told the German Reichstag, in an eloquent speech, that the duration and end of the next war could not be foreseen ; that no one of the greatest Powers of Europe, armed as never before, could be so completely shattered in one or two campaigns as to confess itself beaten ; that the next war might be a seven years' war, or even a thirty years' war.—Won Moltke's speech on the German Army Bill, Standard, May 15th, 1890, p. 5. * It has been stated that the campaign of 1866 was the first in which more men were killed in action than died of sickness. 32 S 7'UD/ES JAV STA TVS 7/CS CHAP. upon the population. Even in 1849, the great cholera year, the births in England and Wales exceeded the deaths by 137,000; but in the Middle Ages it was far otherwise; the Black Death, the Sweating Sickness, and later the Plague, undoubtedly exercised a most powerful and enduring influence in checking the growth of population. The death-rate in our great cities, though much reduced in recent years, still greatly exceeds that of country districts; again, the heavy death-rates of such places as- Marseilles and Naples, Munich and Buda Pesth, still more Madras and Cairo, in which the sanitary conditions are, or till lately were, sadly behind the age, give us some idea of the uncertainty of life in bygone times. The excellent means of communication that have been established within the last half-century make famines almost unknown in Europe, though they still occur in India and China, and to a less extent among the Indians of North America. Improved sanitary legislation and a greater appreci- ation by the mass of the people of the importance of attention to details in matters relating to drainage, water- supply, and ventilation, as well as better methods of isolating, nursing, and treating the sick, have not only proved effectual checks to the ravages of epidemics, but have greatly lessened the general death-rate. Population is increased by births alone, for migration is not an increase; it is but a transfer, a mere matter of account. Births depend primarily upon the number of women of the child-bearing age. As the population in- creases there are naturally more women of such age, and hence more parents. The increase itself increases; it is like compound interest, what mathematicians term a geometrical progression. The young folk of to-day are not associated with a proportional number of aged persons, IV 7 HE GRO WZTH OF POPULATION IN EAVGZA/VD 33 since the latter are the survivors of a much smaller population of a bygone time. But births also depend upon marriages, and marriages, as we have seen, are largely influenced by the general prosperity, so that the recent prolonged depression in trade is seen to have depressed the marriage-rate in nearly every country of Europe, and this in its turn is seen to have been followed by a fall in the birth-rate. Neverthe- less the present century has been largely one of prosperity, and has enjoyed long intervals of peace, hence it has on the whole been one of high birth-rate. 34. STUDIES I/V STA TVS ZICS CHAP. CHAPTER W. THE MIGRATIONS OF THE PEOPLE IN THE 19th CENTURY. OF course the mere movement of people from one place to another cannot of itself directly either increase or diminish the total number of people in the world ; but in the case of individual countries, or smaller areas, it often has a great, it may be even a predominating, influence in regulating their populations. Moreover, when the settlement of a new land increases the supply of food, or when the occupation of a distant country by a military force prevents or delays a number of marriages, we can easily see that migration may even influence the sum-total of the population. Migrations may be divided into three classes. Firstly, migration occurring within the country itself, which might be called intra-migration. Secondly, migration from country to country, but within the limits of one con- tinent; this might be conveniently called inter-migration. Thirdly, migration from continent to continent, ordinarily called, according to the direction of its flow, either emigra- tion or immigration, but which might with more precision be termed ultra-migration. Migration of the first kind, that occurring within the limits of the country, or intra-migration as I propose to term it, is a great and constant movement varying only in degree, directed from the cottage to the village, from the V M/GRATIONS IN THE WINETEENTH CENTURY 35 village to the town, from the town to the city, from agri- cultural to mining or manufacturing districts. Its main motive power is the greater demand for labour in the large centres of population, and consequently higher wages; men leave their homes with a view of “bettering ” them- selves, often making little allowance for the greater cost of living in towns. But, in addition to purely economic reasons, there is another scarcely less potent—the love of excitement and novelty. The noise and bustle of the street, squalid though it be, and the glare of gas-lights, even though mainly those of the gin-shop, are strangely attractive to the countryman. By a curious perversion, the advantage of towns is said to be “life.” There is, in truth, more life in a given space, more high pressure, more rush ; but it is the rush of a clock running down. If there is more life in towns there is assuredly more disease and death. Town-bred children are notoriously less healthy than those reared in the fields, and the healthiest town has a higher death-rate than the surround- ing country. It must, moreover, be borne in mind that the death-rates of our towns would be still higher were it not that they are depressed by the large number of immigrants from the country at the healthiest period of life, domestic servants and others. A table in the census * shows that the population of some counties is decreasing, though this decrease is very slight. Thus the county of Montgomery reached its maximum in 1841; Huntingdon, Rutland, Breck- nock, and Anglesea in 1851; Cornwall, Pembroke, and Radnor in 1861; Cambridge, Dorset, Hereford, Shropshire, Westmorland, and Cardigan in 1871. I give in a table the amount of the loss of population since the maximum. w 1 Census of 1881, vol. iv. pp. 80, 81. 36 STUDIES IV STATISTICS CHAP. DIMINUTION OF POPULATION OF CERTAIN COUNTIES AS ASCERTAINED BY THE 1881 CENSU.S. Year of maximum. Amount of loss. Huntingdom Q & & 1851 © o º 7,096 Cambridge © tº gº 1871 & © e 919 Dorset © º e º e 9 I871 º s º 4,028 Cornwall ... gº º º 1861 tº º º 38,473 Hereford ... $º º º 1871 © º º 3,838 Shropshire ... © e & 1871 tº gº tº 1,285 Rutland ... q e e 1851 tº e ∈ 1,265 Westmorland <> → ~ 1871 © º o 816 Pembroke ... 9 e º 1861 tº e gº 4,011 Cardigan ... tº tº gº 1871 & a ſº 2,732 Drecknock ... tº e º 1851 © tº e 5,038 Radnor ... tº e º 1861 tº ſº º 1,125 Montgomery sº tº º 1841 • * > 3,560 Anglesea ... tº gº e 1851 tº o C. 8,102 Total ... 82,288 The total loss of these fourteen counties amounted to only 82,000, of which nearly one-half consisted of Cornish- men thrown out of employment by the failure of the mines. There is here little evidence of the “depopulation of the rural districts,” of which so much is heard on political platforms. For further evidence on this point, the reader is referred to a careful paper by Dr. Ogle." The accompanying map (Plate VI) shows the net results of intra-migration in England and Wales for the ten years preceding the 1881 census. The counties coloured red actually lost 57,206 inhabitants during the period ; those coloured blue and purple both gained in numbers; the blue counties, however, did not gain so much as the excess of births over deaths would have given them, whereas the purple counties gained more. A com- parison with Plate W. will show that the densest counties 1 The Alleged Depopulation of the Rural Districts of England, by William Ogle, M.A., M.D., F.R.C.P., Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 1889, vol, lii. p. 205. Plate WT. ENGLAND & WALES - º Scale of English Miles 10 * 0. - 20 so 40 so ---E-L-E- A. Migration of the people in the ten years 1871-80 }^3 . º --- \ * . buº tº A M \, - º monland, A |NORT - YORK \ WEST voºk *…* º *ARwick. - - - *. º C i. seagronºš * : --> º south waſ Es ſº - - º º ºs - - . - º, º º - *- - º ; Counties the Counties the Counties the population of º of | population of which has which has —50 [ ] which has increased less |_ increased more diminished than the excess of than the excess of births over deaths births over deaths | 2" 1 W. Gr. O” 1 E. Gr. London: Edward Stanford. London, Stanfords Geogº Estab: v MIGRATIONS IN THE WINE TEENTH CENTURY 37 attracted immigrants from the less dense ; population attracts population. Excess of births Gain or loss of Immigration (+) over deaths. |population (census). |or Emigration(–). Red counties © e > 183,415 — 57,206 – 240,621 Blue counties • * > 1,504,279 +952,293 – 551,986 Purple counties ... 1,722,777 |' + 2,367,086 + 644,309 Total ... tº º º 3,410,471 3,262,173 – 148,298 * Being emigrants who left the country. The red counties, therefore, sent out 240,621 men, women, and children, the blue counties 551,986; of these 644,309 settled in the purple counties, while 148,298 crossed the seas.” These figures are the net results; of course the actual amount of movement was much greater, as numerous persons may be, said to have exchanged places with persons in other counties, but of them and their migrations there is no record. This form of migration has been dealt with in con- siderable detail by Mr. E. G. Ravenstein,” and is alluded to below in Chapters X. and XI. Migration of the second kind—inter-migration, or the movement from one country to an adjoining one—is generally by persons in search of work or advancement, and is therefore apt to be directed from the poorer to the richer country; as when Italians go into France, Austria, or Switzerland, or when Irish and Scotch betake themselves to England. This inter-migration is not usually directly the subject of official records, but indirectly its results are from time to time recorded in the tables of birthplaces in census reports. The countries that are 1 The figures in the table are derived from the Census Report, 1881, vol. ii. p. xxi. 2 The Laws of Migration, by E. G. Ravenstein, F.R.G.S.; Journal of the Statistical Society, vol. xlviii. (1885) p. 167; also vol. lii. (1889) p. 241. 38 STUDIES IN STA 7TWSTICS CHAP. most notable as attracting inter-migration are France and England. FOREIGN BORN IN FRANCE Census 1851 380,831 ,, 1861 497,091 ,, 1866 635,495 ,, 1872 740,668 ,, 1876 801,754 ,, 1881 1,001,090 ,, 1886 1,126,531 The number of foreigners in France is not only exceptionally large, but it is rapidly increasing. Since 1872, the population of France has increased by only 2,115,982, while the number of the foreign-born has increased by 385,863. That is to say, no less than 18 per cent. of the total increase consists of foreigners. This influx of immigrants into a country where the native population is systematically restricted is a strange pheno- menon. The chief nationalities of the foreigners in France are given in the following table; the very rapid immigra- tion of Italians and Belgians deserves especial notice— NATIONALITIES OF FOREIGN-BORN IN FRANCE.2 1872. 1881. 1886. Ingressein 14 years. Belgians 347,558 432,265 482,261 I34,703 Italians 112,579 240,733 264,568 151,989 Germans e - © 39,361 81,986 100,114 6o,753 Spaniards & Portuguese 52,954 74,633 80,842 27,888 Swiss 42,834 66,281 78,584 35,750 Dutch tº º e 17,077 21,232 37,149 2O,072 English, Scotch and Irish 26,003 37,006 36,134 IO, I3 I In the British Islands the movement between the several divisions of the kingdom is very interesting, and has had most important economical results. The following * Statistique Générale de la France, 1886. 2 Ibºd. V 39 MIGRA 7TWOAWS ZAV 7. HE AWAVE 7TEENZTA, CAEAV7'UA' Y table gives the birthplaces of the inhabitants of the several divisions" of the United Kingdom as ascertained at the It will be observed that although the number of Scotch in England, of English and Irish in Scotland, and also of English and Scotch in Ireland has increased, the number of Irish in England has diminished in the twenty years 1861-81. It would be quite wrong to infer from this that the migration of Irish into England has stopped, since deaths alone would have caused a much larger diminution in the time. last three censuses. BIRTHPLACES OF THE PEOPLE OF THE UNITED FOINGDOM. CEN SUS 1861. BoRN IN ENUMERATED E The Other IN ngland. | Scotland. Ireland. Colonies places. ToTAL. * & India. England 19,120,052| 169,202| 601,634|| 51,572|123,764|20,066,224 Scotland 56,0322,785,804 204,083| 7,559, 8,816| 3,062,294 Ireland 50,936|| 16,925|5,720,686 10,420 5,798,967 UNITED KING.[19,227,0202,971,931|6,526,403 202,131 28,927,485 CEN SUS 1871. England 21,692,165. 213,254 566,540, 70,812|169,495|22,712,266 Scotland 70,482|3,061,531| 207,770. 9,740) 10,495| 3,360,018 Ireland 67,881 20,318||5,306,757| 8,367| 9,054|| 5,412,377 United King.[21,830,5283,295,1036,081,067 CEN SUS 1881. England Scotland Ireland 24,855,822 91,823 69,382 253,528 3,397,759 22,328 562,374 218,745 5,063,334 88,919,189,04431,484,661 94,399 12,874 8,325 208,316 14,372 11,467 25,974,439 3,735,573 5,174,836 |UNITED KING. 25,017,027 3,673,615 5,844,453 115,598.284,155 34,884,848 Acting on a suggestion of Mr. Noel A. Humphreys, I have been able to calculate approximately the amount 1 Wales is here reckoned as one with England. 4o STUDIES IN STA 77S77CS , , CHAP. of movement between the divisions of the United Kingdom.” The method adopted is as follows, taking the Scotch in England as an example— In 1861 there were 169,202 natives of Scotland enumerated in England and Wales, but at the next census 213,254; the difference, 44,052, shows the net result of (1) migration between the two countries in ten years, and (2) the diminution by deaths of Scotchmen in England during the period. Now we cannot be very much in error if we assume that the average Scotch population in England during the decade was the arithmetical mean between the number at its beginning and end, thus— 169,202 + 213,254 2 = 191,228 But of this number many must have died annually. To take a convenient figure, and one that is not improb- able, we will assume that the death-rate was 20 per 1000. This death-rate would in the decade carry off one-fifth of the average population— 191,228 5 = 38,246 But the population instead of diminishing by this number actually increased by 44,052. Therefore enough Scotch- men must have entered England not only to fill up the 38,246 gaps caused by death, but also to provide the 44,052, the increase enumerated at the census of 1871. We get then as the net number of Scotch immigrants into England and Wales during the decade— * 28,246 + 44,052 = 82,298 By similar calculations this table has been constructed. As it cannot pretend to accuracy, the results are given in round numbers. * * The following figures first appeared in an article on the census of 1881 in The Charity Organization Reporter, 1884, p. 2. V MZGRA 7TWOAVS NAV ZAIAE AW/AWE TEENZTH CENTORY 4. I MIGRATION BETWEEN THE SEVERAL DIVISIONS OF THE TJNITED KINGDOM IN DECADES. Scotch to Irish to English to English to Scotch to Irish to England. England. Scotland. Ireland. Ireland. Scotland. 1841-50 50,200 || 311,500 smºsºms gº- - -** 1851-60 | 69,000 | 193,800 * gºmº - -*s 1861-70 82,300 | 81,700 27,100 28,800 || 7,100 44,900 1871-80 || 87,000 || 108,700 || 37,600 15,200 6,300 || 53,600 Our ignorance of the number of the population in each year is a source of error, our ignorance of its age and sex constitution, and consequently of its death-rate, is a much more serious one, but in spite of all uncertainties this approximation is better than nothing. An examination of these tables suggests several re- marks. The flow from Scotland into England increases from decade to decade, though at a decreasing rate. The migration of the Irish is not anything like as large as it was in the decade 1841-50, but was larger in the last decade than in the last but one. The balance of inter- migration for the last two decades was as follows— | Gain of England. + 108,100 + 142,900 Loss of Scotland. – 17,400 — 2,100 Loss of Ireland. – 90,700 — 140,800 1861-70 1871-80 The colonial-born and foreign-born increased in each decade in each division of the United Kingdom (except that the colonial-born in Ireland in the last decade remained practically the same as in the previous one). It is curious that although the population of Ireland is steadily diminishing, the number of foreign-born is slowly increasing. Mr. Leonard Courtney has called attention to this," but he has overlooked what is, in my opinion, the chief cause, i.e. the generally increased facilities of com- 1 The Nineteenth Century, March 1888, pp. 340, 341. * 42 STUDIES IN STA TYSTICS CHAP. munication, which undoubtedly tend to a greater mixing up of the various peoples of the earth. It will be noticed that the number of foreigners in the United Kingdom is very much smaller than in France. In 1861 about one-fifth, in 1871 and 1881 about one-third, of the natives of “foreign countries” enumerated in England and Wales were British subjects, the remainder being strictly “foreigners.” Of these foreigners one-half were (in 1881) enumerated in London, and one-fourth in other large towns. Of the European foreigners one-tenth were sailors in our ports. If the increase of population of England and Wales in the forty years 1841-81, ascertained at each census, be compared with the excess of births over deaths, it is surprising how nearly equal the two sums are ; in other words, it would appear that the immense emigra- tion that has taken place has had very little effect upon the population. ENGLAND AND WALES. Excess of births over Increase enumerated Net gain or loss deaths in previous decade. at each census. by migration. 1851 ... 1,736,616 * & & 2,013,461 © tº tº + 276,845 1861 ... 2,260,726 ... 2,138,615 ... — 122,111 1871 ... 2,725,010 tº º º 2,646,042 • e tº — 78,968 1881 ... 3,426,480 ... 3,262,173 ... — 164,307 Forty years 10,148,832 10,060,291 — 88,541 From this table it would appear that the population would have numbered only 88,541 more persons had no emigration taken place | And yet we know that during this period Australia and New Zealand have been peopled by British settlers, not to mention the many thousands that have gone to Canada and the United States. The apparent paradox admits however of explanation. To begin with, the births were imperfectly registered in the earlier decades, especially in the first, so that the true excess of births over deaths was somewhat greater y M/G/&A 77OAVS IN THE WIME Z'EEZWZTAſ CEAVTUA' P 43 than appears in the table. But by far the more effective cause was the great immigration of Irish and Scotch, described above. While the native English have gone out by one door, Irish, Scotch (and to a minor extent foreigners and returned colonists), have come in at another. Migra- tion, then, has not materially altered the quantity of the population of England, but has greatly altered its quality, and this in two ways, not only by the substitution of Irish labourers for English, but by continually drafting off the most enterprising of the latter to extend the imperial domain in far corners of the earth. The third form of migration, that from continent to continent, from the Old World to the New, is of the greatest importance as a determining factor in history, and is that which I shall treat of at greatest length. It is impossible to state accurately the amount of migration taking place between different countries. Although in almost all old countries statistics of emigra- tion are published, and in new countries the numbers of immigrants are recorded, the returns are liable to many errors. In the first place, they are often in themselves incorrect, either overstating or understating the facts; then there is no means of proving the bona fides of alleged emigrants (or immigrants), they may return whence they came, or they may pass on to another colony; lastly, many who are merely passengers to and fro, travellers on business or pleasure, are recorded as emigrants or immigrants. More satisfactory are the indications derived from the statements as to birthplaces in the censuses of the countries receiving the immigrants. These numbers show approximately how many have actually settled down in a new country, and the increase or decrease of per- sons of any particular nationality from census to census 44 STUD/ZS //V STA 77S77CS' CHAP. indicates the direction (but not the exact amount) of fluctuations in the movement. Obviously census figures have the disadvantage that they are only published at long intervals. In inquiring into the statistics of ultra-migration it is well to consider the countries concerned in two groups— those that give, and those that take. To begin with those that give. The great radiating centres of emigration, confining ourselves to recent times, and more especially to the decade 1879-88, may be taken as four—Great Britain and Ireland ; Germany; Sweden, Norway, and Denmark; and Italy. The average numbers of emigrants stated to leave their shores annually are as follows— The United Kingdom 248,000 i Average of 10 years 1879-88 Germany g tº º & © e 130,000 2 35 y 2 99 22 Scandinavia ... e e º 62,000 8 } 5 29 3 2 55 Italy ... © tº e tº º ºr 82,000 2 59 33 95 5 y 522,000 (1) The United Kingdom. The Board of Trade returns show that the average gross emigration of persons of British and Irish origin only was for the ten years 1879–88, in round numbers, 248,000. By deducting the recorded immigration (70,000) from the recorded emigration we obtain the net emigration, viz. 178,000. The figures, it should be remembered, do not include any movement of population between the United Kingdom and Europe or the countries bordering upon the Mediterranean; but there is no doubt that such interchange with these countries, though locally it produces important results (as in the East End of London), is relatively quite unimportant. About 67 per cent. of these emigrants went to the United States, 16 per cent. to Australia and New Zealand, * Board of Trade Return, 1886. 2 Almanach de Gotha. * Statesman's Year-Book. V MIGRA TWOWS IN THE WINE TEENTH CENTURY 45 12 per cent. to Canada, and a very small number to South Africa. But when a long term of years is considered, it is found that the proportion of Irish is great among emigrants to the United States; of English among those to Australasia; of Scotch among those to Canada. There is no doubt that the great American Republic has an especial charm for Irishmen; but once there they seem to lose their passion for holding land, and congregate mostly in the vast cities of the Eastern States. During the 37 years 1853-89 the following numbers are said to have left our shores"— EMIGRANTS, OF BRITISH AND IRISH ORIGIN. * Total. Yearly average. of *. English ... 3,439,138 . . . 92,950 © Q Scotch tº e ſº 689,705 ... 18,641 ... ... 5.5 Irish ... 2,775,007 ... 75,000 ... ... 13.9 When these are compared with the mean populations of England and Wales, Scotland and Ireland respectively (taking the population in 1871 as sufficiently near the middle of the period), we find that on the average Bngland and Wales have annually sent out as emigrants 4.1 per thousand of their population, Scotland 5.5 per thousand, and Ireland nearly 14 per thousand. But, as has been already shown, this does not by any means represent the whole movement of the people, the inter- migration must not be forgotten ; which has resulted in an Irish element in England exceeding half a million, a Scotch element in England exceeding a quarter of a million, and an Irish element in Scotland exceeding 200,000, Under the circumstances described above, the decrease of the population of Ireland should excite no surprise, and the cause of the migration is not far to seek. The 1 Board of Trade Return, 1889. 46 STUDIES WAV SZTA TVS 7TWCS *- CHAP. standard of living has risen everywhere, and is still rising; and whereas Ireland is too poor a country to allow its population to live up to that standard, its people must seek a happier fortune elsewhere, consequently the less adventurous go to Liverpool and Glasgow, the more adventurous to New York. TJNITED KINGDOM. INCREASE OF POPULATION IN FORTY YEARS. Census 1841. Census 1881. England and Wales 15,914,148 || 25,974,4 39 Increase 10,060,291 Scotland tº ſº & 2,620,184 3,735,573 || Increase 1,115,389 Ireland tº º (º 8,196,597 5,174,836 || Decrease 3,021,761 United Kingdom 26,730,929 || 34,884,848 || Increase 8,153,919 The population of Ireland reached its maximum in 1845 or 1846, and has since then declined, but the rate of decline since 1861 has been steadily diminishing. The upper black line in the diagram (Plate VII.) shows the gross emigration of persons of British and Irish origin from the United Kingdom from 1853 to 1889; but, as Dr. Giffen points out in his Annual Returns, it must not be forgotten that these are not by any means all true emigrants; many are merely passengers to and fro on business or pleasure, and these form a constantly increas- ing number; moreover, not a few emigrants fail, and return to the mother country. The number of immigrants, or passengers landing in the United Kingdom, has only been recorded since 1876. The true emigration is the net movement from this country after the deduction of all immigrants. The net emigration is represented in the diagram by the lower black line in the right-hand portion of the diagram, the area tinted gray representing the number of immigrants. The blue line gives the gross number of Irish immigrants. The first maximum of emigration from the United 1853 GROSS EMIGRATION FROM THE UNITED KINGDOM OF PERSONS OF BRITISH & IRISH ORIGIN, ALSO OF IRISH ONLY; ALSO NET EMIGRATION FROM THE UNITED KINGDOM SINCE 1876. '55 '57 '59 *61 '63 '65 '67 '69 '71 '73 '75 *77 '79 '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 3OO.OOO GROSS EMIGRATION UNITED KING DOM 200.000 NET EMIGRATION IOO. O.O.O. | RISH GROSS EMIGRATION DEST! NATION OF EMIGRANTS FROM UNITED KINGDOM, WITH IMPORTS & ExPORTS OF UNITED STATES. 1853 '55 '57 '59 '6| '63 '65 '67 '69 '71 '73 "75 177 '79 '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 ----------- -----> --> 200 TO UNITED STATES 100 ----------- TO BRITISH NORTH AMERICA V MIGRA TIONS IN THE AWI WETEEAVTH CENTURY 47 Kingdom was in the years immediately succeeding the Irish famine (1847-54). The discovery of gold in California in the autumn of 1847, and in Australia in the spring of 1851, largely stimulated the flow of migration during those years. The nationalities of emigrants from the United Kingdom have only been distinguished since 1853 (apparently the maximum year). Emigration greatly diminished after 1854 till it reached the minimum in 1861; from that point it rose rapidly till 1863; then after a slight fall rose again till 1873; after this year it fell till in 1877 it nearly reached the mark of 1861, but at once began to rise again till it reached its maximum in 1883. It has been unusually high every year since 1880; indeed this wave of emigration exceeds that of the earlier move- ment, though owing to the growth of population in the interval it is not proportionately so great. It should be noted that in 1853 the Irish emigrants amounted to 69 per cent. of the whole, but since 1864 the proportion has steadily declined till it is now only 26 per cent. of the whole. The Scotch have been pretty constantly about 10 per cent. of the whole; latterly 12 or 13 per cent. The English proportion has risen from 23 per cent. to 63 per cent., but in 1876-7 was 67 per cent. of the whole. The other diagram (Plate VIII.) gives the destina- tions of the emigrants; the blue line shows those going to the United States, a curve practically nearly the same as that of the total emigration; the red line shows the emigrants going to Canada—its chief features are those of the American curve, but its tendency of recent years has been more decidedly upward; the yellow line applies to Australasia. The latter differs from the two others in many particulars. This, according to Dr. Giffen, is because emigration to Australia is largely governed by the assistance given by the colonies, and is not A8 STUDIES IN STA TISTICS - CHAP. regulated simply and directly by the laws of supply and demand as that to the United States appears to be. The dotted yellow line represents the imports and exports of the United States." This, it will be seen, corresponds pretty closely with the curve of emigration to the United States, and proves that the activity of trade in that country is the main cause which regulates the number of immigrants; a slight improvement in trade appears to immediately stimulate emigration from this country to a disproportionate degree. - j - (2) Germany, the second centre of distribution, is scarcely less important than the first. Germany alone has for ten years (1879-88) sent forth yearly 130,000 emigrants.” Of these no less than 96 per cent, go to the United States; the next most favoured country is Brazil; then other parts of the American continent ; a few go to Australasia; a very few to Africa. There is indeed scarcely a corner of the world—no matter how remote, no matter what the climate—in which Germans will not be found. These are, however, remarkable more for their perseverance, industry, and thrift than for their absolute numbers. Together with German emigrants may be taken Austro- Hungarians; their number is very uncertain; more leave Hamburg and Bremen than the official statistics of the Empire Kingdom admit.” According to American statistics there have landed in the United States in recent years (1881-6) some 30,000 “ Austro-Hungarians annually, and these numbers tally fairly well with the figures of the German ports. Holland also sends small numbers of emigrants to the 1 Report of the Chief of the Bureau of Statistics of the United States, 1889, p. 787. - * Almanach de Gotha. * Statesman's Year-Book, 1888. 4 Ibid. V MIGRATIONS IN THE AWI WE TEENTH CENTURY 49 United States." In Belgium the balance of migration is in favour of the home country, and results in an annual addition of some 3000 a year to the population.” This is the more remarkable, as Belgium is the most densely populated country of Europe. The Swiss, besides over- flowing into neighbouring countries, cross the ocean annually to the number of some 10,000.” The great majority go to the United States, most of the remainder to South America. (3) The third centre consists of the Baltic countries— Norway, Sweden, and Denmark, called shortly for con- venience Scandinavia. The great majority of Scandinavians go to the United States, a fair number in recent years to Canada. EMIGRATION FROM EIGHT EUROPEAN COUNTRIES COM. PARED WITH NATURAL INCREASE OF POPULATION. ANNUAL AVERAGES, TEN YEARS 1877–86. *...* | Emigrants. ºt United Kingdom 452,000 I48, ooo 9 32.7 Germany 537,000 Io8, ooo? 20: 1 Italy 254,000 56,ooo * 22-0 Sweden 56,000 28, ooo 4 50-0 Norway 28,000 I5,5oo * 55-4 Switzerland 22,000 7,5003 34:1 Denmark 27,000 6,ooo 4 22.2 France 92,000 4,700° 5:1 Total 1,468,000 37 2,700 25.5 * Fiftieth Annual Report of Registrar-General. * Board of Trade Return, 1886. Met emigration of British and Irish origin. * Almanach de Gotha. 4 Statesman's Year-Book. 1 Some 5000 a year. Report of the Chief of the Bureau of Statistics of the United States, 1889. * Average of 1882-86. Almanach de Gotha. 50 STUDIES IN STATISTICs CHAP. Concerning Russia there is no precise information, but the American census of 1880 showed 84,279* Russian born, more than half being Poles, an increase of 65,000 on the previous census, and the American immigration. returns for 1881-85 * claim an average of 15,000 immigrants from Russia annually. It will be observed from the table that the number of emigrants from Sweden and Norway, though insignificant when compared with English, German, or Irish emigrants, is relatively very large, amounting in the case of Norway to 55 per cent., and in the case of Sweden to 50 per cent., of the natural increase, or excess of births over deaths. In 1881-2 when Scandinavian emigration was at its highest, the number of emigrants from Norway eac- ceeded the natural increase, and in Sweden in the same years nearly equalled it. - The proportion borne by the emigrants to the natural increase of the population is about the same in Switzer- land as in the United Kingdom, viz. one-third ; in Germany, Italy, and Denmark it is one-fifth. In France the excess of births over deaths is very small, but the emigration is still smaller, amounting to barely 5 per cent. of that very small increase. (4) The last centre of emigration to which I have to call attention is Italy and the Mediterranean, or Latin countries. The Italian emigration returns distinguish between those who leave Italy for countries in Europe, principally France, Austria, and Switzerland, and what most people more usually understand by the term, emigrants, those who cross the seas to seek a fortune in distant parts of the world. The former number 85,000 annually, the latter 56,000 (on the average of ten years 1 Census of United States, 1880. * Statesman's Year-Book. V M/GRATIO/VS I/V THE AW/AWE 7TEEAV7'H CENTURY 5 I 1877–86). Of this number nearly two-thirds go to South America, of which by far the larger portion go to the Argentine Republic, the others to Brazil and Montevideo ; the majority of the remaining third go to the United States. France does not part with more than about 4700 a. year," South America (especially the Argentine Confedera- tion) and the United States being equally favoured destinations. Very few Frenchmen settle in Canada; it is said that the “ habitans” of Quebec do not like them to do so, as they introduce freethought and revolutionary ideas into that most conservative and most Catholic province. The emigration from Spain does not appear to be recorded ; it is probably not great. It seems to be mainly directed to Cuba, Puerto Rico, the Argentine Confederation, and in a less degree to Brazil. From Portugal” in the years 1879-87 the number of emigrants averaged 16,000. They nearly all go to America, mostly to Brazil; there is, however, curiously enough, a considerable emigration to Hawaii. These numbers include the emigrants from Madeira and the Azores, who amounted to 4667 in 1885, and 3726 in 1887. * Almanach de Gotha. * Statesman's Year-Book. 52 STUD/ES IAW STA TYS 7TWCS CHAP. CHAPTER WI. THE GROWTH OF NEW NATIONS. THE UNITED STATES. FROM the fall of the Roman Empire until the discovery of America the history of Europe was practically, so far at least as regards the Western races of mankind, the history of the world. In the three centuries that followed, as Prof. Seeley has so eloquently urged upon us, the events of most real moment were those which decided who should possess the new worlds beyond the sea, and more particularly the parts of them suited by soil and climate for settlement by Europeans. At one time Portugal, at another Spain, at another Holland, seemed destined to be the great empire-state, the Great Power of extra-European Europe. Lastly, the 18th century witnessed the desperate struggle between France and England, which gave one-fifth of the land surface of the globe to the latter power. At the present time there are but six countries which have colonies of any consequence, viz. Great Britain, Holland, France, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark. The areas and populations of these countries and their several dependencies are given in a table below, but in these modern days of rapid development and “national move- ments,” it would be very fallacious to take those figures as measures of the power of the several countries. The v1 THE GROWTH OF NEW WATIONS. UAVTED STATES 53 areas must be qualified by considerations of climate ; to a North-European country a small possession in a tem- perate climate may be worth more than thousands of square miles of tropical forest; on the other hand, in a population, considerations of race greatly outweigh mere numbers. Then again in the table the United States, that country of marvels, and the many States of South America, formerly colonies of Portugal or Spain, find no place. In recent years German patriots, distressed at witnessing the loss of population which their country suffered from the great tide of emigration from the Fatherland to the United States, conceived the idea of founding a colonial empire of their own. The idea would have been a good one earlier, but they were too late in the race, and the Germans have hitherto only succeeded in laying hands on part of New Guinea, a few islands in the Pacific, and large tracts of country on the west and east coasts of Africa. All these new German colonies are tropical in character, and hence little suited for settlement by a North-European people, a fact which the Germans themselves are beginning to see, though they are loth to admit it. BRITISH AND FOREIGN COLONIES." AREA (square miles). POPULATION. C. Cºle, Total. d. Colonies, &c. Total. Great Britain 120,757|7,008,066 35,241,482| 11,738,161 Asiatic possms. — 930,356 }8,059.79 — |202,179,781 }*49,19424 Holland 12,648| 682,792. 695,440) 4,172,971| 26,841,597 31,014,568 France 204,092] 382,706 586,79837,672,048) 8,722,857 46,394,905 Spain 192,959) 165,734 358,693.16,350,874, 8,175,467| 24,526,341 Portugal 34,499| 705,778 740,277 4,160,315|| 3,723,967 7,884,282 Denmark 13,784| 87,124 Ioo,908. 1,969,039 127,122 2,096, 16I 1 From Inaugural Address to the Statistical Society, 18 Nov. 1884, by Sir Rawson W. Rawson, K.C.M.G., C.B. $4 STUD/ES IV STATISTICS - CHAP. I propose now to consider the results of migration, not, as is more often done, from the European point of view, but from the other side, that of the countries to which the emigrants go. By an analysis of the populations of new countries as shown by the census, taking into con- sideration the flow of migration still going on, I desire to see what sort of nations are growing up beyond the seas, and what results are likely to follow from the continuation of the process of settlement. Broadly speaking, those who seek a fortune in a new country choose one of four regions of the world, viz.- 1. North America. The United States, or Canada. 2. South America. The Argentine Confederation, Uruguay, or Brazil. 3. South Africa. The Cape Colony, Natal, or the Transvaal. 4. Australasia. The various Australian colonies, Tasmania, or New Zealand. Amongst all the countries of immigration the United States of North America stands focile princeps. Emigration from Europe to “the plantations” of the New World has been going on for more than three centuries; but it is in the last fifty years only that it has reached such dimensions as to constitute an historical fact of the first importance. The future of the European races is indeed intimately bound up with that of the United States of North America. Possessed of the largest habit- able area of all the countries of the New World, and of unequalled natural resources which are being developed by a people characterized by restless energy and keen intelligence, it exhibits a rapid growth of population and accumulation of wealth that are without a parallel. Fifty years ago its population numbered but 17 vi THE GROWTH OF NEW NATIONS. UNITED STATES 5; millions, at the last census 50 millions, at the present time over 62 millions." The energy of the people is sufficiently proved by the fact that in five years of war a debt of 540 millions sterling was accumulated; the still more extraordinary fact that in twenty years of peace it paid off 200 millions of the capital of this debt, and reduced the interest on the remainder from 5 or 6 per cent., at which it was contracted, to the 3 to 4% per cent. at which it now stands, is ample proof of its wealth.” That the marvellous increase of the population of the United States, whereby the number of its people has been doubled every twenty-five years during the present century, admits of explanation, by no means detracts from its significance; quite the reverse. Probably no other country has room for so many people. Canada and Australia have larger tracts of land unsettled, but the vast sub-arctic forests of the one and the riverless deserts of the other, so far as can be foreseen, will never be able to support any considerable population ; and the greater part of Africa and much of South America are too hot for the northern races of Europe to thrive in. Yet, while the absolute increase of the United States people will be larger and larger during each successive decade, the relative rate of increase may be expected to diminish. In the early days of a new country when its popula- tion is small, immigration is the chief factor in its growth ; but as the native population increases, immigration becomes gradually of less and less importance by com- parison to the natural growth of the people. For instance, during the ten years 1851-60, it is recorded that 1,495,243 persons left the shores of the United Kingdom for the United States, of which number it may be assumed 62,480,540, Census Bulletin, Washington, 30 October, 1890. * Statesman's Year-Book. :56 STUDIES ZW STATISTICS CHAP. that 1,224,615 were natives of England, Wales, Scotland, or Ireland.' Now, in proportion to the mean populations” at that time of the United Kingdom and United States respectively, i.e. 28,533,619 and 27,278,121, the loss to the exporting, and gain to the importing, country were 4:3 and 4.5 per cent. During the eleven years 1871-1881, there left our shores for the United States 1,263,476 persons of British or Irish origin, or almost exactly the same number as during the ten years 1851-60; the proportions were, however, very different. United Kingdom Proportion borne Mean population $ 33,543,430 by emigrants to 38 Census 1871 and 1881 this, per cent. y |United States ) Proportion borne Mean population 44,357,077 by immigrants to X 2-8 Census 1870 and 1880 this, per cent. ſ The figures show clearly how a migration may be absolutely constant, yet at the same time relatively both to the absorbing and the dispersing country decreasing. They also show that this vast exodus of men, women, and children was not inconsistent with great growth in the mother country, although it contributed in no small degree to that yet more rapid increase in the United States, whereby their population came up to and passed ours somewhere about the year 1856. In 1850 the Great American Republic, so far as mere numbers are concerned, stood seventh among the Powers, in 1860 fourth, in 1870 third, and in 1880 second. * Board of Trade Return of Emigration. In 1851-2 the nationalities of emigrants were not distinguished, so I have assumed that the same proportion held good between foreigners and those stated to be of British or Irish birth as in the eight years 1853-60. * Means of two successive censuses. v1,..., THE GRO WZH OF ANE W WATIONS. UAVITED STATES 57 **i. ORDER OF PRECEDENCE OF THE GREAT POWERS BY POPULATION. 1850. 1880. Russia. Russia. France. United States. Austro-Hungary. Germany. Germany. Austro-Hungary. United Kingdom. France. Italy. United Kingdom. United States. Italy. The political significance of this table is evident; it is intensified by the fact that Germany and Italy, two congeries of petty states in 1850, are now solid nations, while the Austro-Hungarian monarchy is much more consolidated than it was. At the next census the popula- tion of the United Kingdom will be very nearly equal to that of France. Our American cousins, so go-ahead in most respects, cannot claim as yet to equal us in vital statistics. Almost alone among the great powers (Russia and Spain excepted) America does not give the world her yearly record of marriages, births, and deaths. As regards some of the chief cities of the New World, such records have been kept for several years, so that it is to be hoped we shall before long have returns for the whole country; a heavy task truly to carry out over such a vast territory, but not one that a young, vigorous, and proud people need fear to grapple with. Emigration from the Old World to the New has for the last forty years been so striking in its variety and extent, that we are too apt to look upon the growth of the great Republic of the West as wholly, or at least mainly, due thereto. But whatever may have been the case in the past, this is not so now. In default of other data we must assume some rate of natural increase (by excess of births over deaths) for the United States. The population of 58 STUDIES WW S 7.4 7/STICS CHAP. º? the States, it should be remembered, is principally com- posed of men of British or Irish stock, of Germans, and of negroes. As regards the United Kingdom, the average rate of natural increase for the ten years 1871-80 was 13 per thousand; that of the German Empire for the nine years 1872-80, 12% per thousand. These rates produced in the two countries mean annual increments of 430,000 and 540,000 respectively. Assuming similar rates for the United States, with its population in 1880 of 50 millions, we should have an annual natural increase of about 650,000. But let us suppose that the rate is notably less than this, say only 10 per thousand, we should still have an annual increase of population due to its own inherent vitality of half a million. The natural increase of Victoria is said to be 17 per thousand per annum, that of New South Wales 23, that of New Zealand 27 ; it is, however, rather difficult to believe in these excessive rates. The circumstances are indeed peculiar, but although the marriage- and birth-rates seem probable enough, it is difficult to believe that the death-rates in the following table are not understated, at any rate in the case of New Zealand— MARRIAGE-, BIRTH-, AND DEATH-RATES PER 1000 LIVING. CENSUS YEAR, 1881.1 . Births. Deaths. . Victoria ... ... ... 13-6 ... 31.2 ... 14.2 ... 17:0 New South Wales ... 16.5 ... 38-0 ... . 15:1 ... 22.9 New Zealand ... ... 13.3 ... 38'0 ... 11:1 ... 26.9 Of course if the rate of natural increase in the United States were to be admitted to be 20 per thousand, or even 15 per thousand, this would amount to an annual natural * From Colonial Reports. Substantially the same figures are obtained when an average of the three years 1880-2 is taken. v1 THE GROWTH OF NEW WATIONS. UNITED STATES 59 increase of 1,000,000, or 750,000. But young though it be when compared with other countries, it is not so young as our Australasian colonies, and we should therefore not expect it to have such an abnormal rate of growth. The mortality statistics of American cities—so far as they are accessible in the returns of our Registrar-General –are as follows— Pºlº, Average death-rate. New York tº º º ... 1,206,299 © tº º tº tº o 27-3 1874-86 Brooklyn ... tº tº º tº e º 566,663 tº gº tº tº º e 23°4. 99 Philadelphia ... © tº º 847,170 tº gº º © & Q 20-7 95 Baltimore tº gº tº © º ºs 332,313 tº ºn tº © º 21°4 1879-86 The very imperfect returns given for Boston, Cincinnati, and Chicago would seem to indicate that the two former are healthy cities, the latter unhealthy. New York is an unhealthy city, and may be classed with Manchester and Liverpool. Philadelphia and Baltimore, on the other hand, are very healthy cities; they have a lower mortality than London, and may be compared with Brighton, Bristol, and Bradford. Brooklyn occupies an intermediate position; its death-rate is higher than that of London, and it takes rank with Sunderland and Oldham. So far then as these towns may be regarded as a fair Sample of the American Republic, it would appear that the death-rate of the whole country is much about the same as that of England and Wales. Concerning the birth-rate I know of no information directly available. In the Annual Summary for 1887 published by the Registrar-General, the birth-rate of New York in that year is given as 23-0, and that of Baltimore as 207, but these low numbers seem incredible. There is, however, a means of approximating to the rate of natural increase of the United States by another quite independent method. 6o . STUDIES IN STATISTICS CHAP. Tºy In the ten years 1870-80 the census showed an increase of 11,556,736 persons (excluding Indians). The United States immigration statistics assert that 2,812,191 immigrants landed in the country during the decade;” the difference between these numbers would give a natural increase of 8,744,545. This on a mean population of 44,311,008 gives a natural increase of 19.7 per thousand per annum, a number that tallies fairly well with the figures for our leading Australasian colonies. But it will be asked, can the immigration statistics of the United States be trusted As regards the alleged enormous immigration of Canadians, it is well known that they are almost worthless. Moreover, the figures only profess to represent the gross immigration, no account being given of emigration. When a comparison is made with the statistics of the European countries from which the greater part of the migrants go we get these results— EMIGRATION TO UNITED STATES.8 FIVE YEARS 1882-86. TJnited States | British and German Excess of U. S. r figures. figures for same years. figures, From- per cent. United Kingdom ... 688,865 572,0034 20-4 Germany tº s 2 © tº e 833,938 666,421 5 25:1 There is then good reason to believe that the United States figures are excessive. Now it is obvious that if we assert that the United States immigration figures are too large, to that same extent the natural increase figures must be too small, and we are thus driven to the con- clusion that after all the true rate of natural increase of the United States may be something like 20 per thousand 1 Census of United States, 1880, vol. i. pp. 378,379. * Report of the Chief of the Bureau of Statistics of the United States, 1889, p. cxx. * - 8 Statesman's Year-Book, 1890. * Net emigration. Board of Trade Returns. * Almanach de Gotha. 1890. VI THE GRO WZTH OF AME WAVA TVOAVS. UAVY7-FD STA 7TES 61 per annum, or an absolute addition to the present population of 1,000,000 a year by excess of births alone ! Again, in the same 10 years the coloured population increased from 4,880,009 to 6,580,793, corresponding to a natural increase of 29.7 per thousand per annum, since the migration was probably inconsiderable. Yet such a rate seems scarcely credible, since there is reason to believe that intermarriages between whites and persons of colour are less frequent now than in the old days of slavery (race hatred having increased rather than diminished since the war), so that the half-caste population is not added to from the outside by fresh infusion of white blood to anything like the extent that was formerly the case. As regards the additions made annually to the population by immigration, the chief of the Bureau of Statistics states, that in the ten years 1880-89 no less than 5,248,568 immigrants landed on the shores of the United States 1" Even if we deduct 20 per cent. from this number, we should still have a formidable army of 419,885 men, women, and children annually arriving in the ports of America with a view to settlement That something like this number does settle there is certain, and is in truth the strongest possible proof of the vast resources of that great territory. In the intercensal interval 1870-80 the average annual growth of population amounted to 1,150,000. From what has been said above it is pretty plain that it cannot now be much under 1,250,000, and may be more. The United States, which in 1790, at the first census, numbered under 4 millions of inhabitants, has now (1890) something like 62% millions, and is still growing at the rate of something like 3,400 per diem. It already exceeds in population every European country except Russia, and if there be, as 1 Report of the Chief of the Bureau of Statistics, 1889, p. cxx. 62 STUDIES IN STATISTICS CHAP, I think there is, little doubt that it is now the most powerful state in the world, before another quarter of a century is past its predominance will be beyond question. Its native population is keen and enterprising, while the reinforcements that it receives from Europe are mainly sent by the most vigorous peoples of the Old World. IMMIGRANTS INTO UNITED STATES.1 TEN YEARS 1880-89. Germans ... ... ... 1,445,181 Swiss ... ... ... 81,151 British ... ... ... 810,898 Dutch ... ... ... 52,715 Irish ... ... ... ... 674,061 French ... ... ... 48,189 Swedes, Norwegians, Danes 671,783 Belgians ... ... 18,738 Austrians, Hungarians 314,787 Chinese ... ... 65,806 Italians ... ... ... 267,663 All others ... ... 571,987 Russians, Poles, Finns 225,609 Total ... ... 5,248,568 Even if we admit that the census of the United States is not so trustworthy (or in American, reliable) as it might be, still the figures derived from it give a more solid foundation to go upon than the Immigration Returns. The population is therein classified both according to race and according to birth-places. The figures are so remarkable that I have given them in the following table (which is compiled from the census directly) in some detail, and in such a way as to show at a glance the two methods of classification. As regards the division into races, it will be noted that the proportions of Chinese and of civilized (or tax-paying) Indians is quite insignificant. To the latter should, how- ever, be added the uncivilized Indians (who have not yet learned to appreciate the delights of paying taxes), amounting in 1880 to a little over a quarter of a million. It has not yet been ascertained with certainty whether the Indians are increasing or decreasing in numbers; with * Report of the Chief of the Bureau of Statistics of the United States, 1889, p. cxxi. v1 THE GROWTH OF WEW NATIONS. UNITED STATES 63 regard to the negroes, including Mulattoes, Quadroons, &c., there is unfortunately no doubt on this point. Since TABLE A.—CENSUS OF THE UNITED STATES, BIRTH- PLACES OF THE PEOPLE, AND POPULATION BY RACE. 1 Population by Race. 1860. Per cent. 1880. Per cent. Whites ... ... [26,922,538 85’7 |43,402,970 86-6 Men of colour ... 4,441,830. 14'I 6,580,793 I3' I Chinese tº G 34,933 * I 105,613 *2 Civilized Indians 44,020 • I 66,407 "I Total 31,443,321 | 199° 50, I55,783 || Ioo'o Birth-places of White †. . '. Population. population. population. United States ... 22,821,296 || 72’6 |36,843,291 73'5 Foreign-born ? ... 4,101,242| I3"I 6,559,679 I3"I Details of Foreign-born. Born in Germany ... 1,276,075|| 4'o6 || 1,966,742 3'92 ,, , Ireland tº e 1,611,304 || 5' 13 1,854,571 3°7'o ,, , England and Wales 477,455. I’52 745,978 I'49 ,, ,, British N. America| 249,970 •8o 717,157 I.43 ,, , Sweden & Norway 62,620 *2O 376,066 ‘75 ,, , Scotland 108,518 *35 170,136 "34 ,, , Austro-Hungary 25,061 •o8 135,5508 ’27 ,, , France 109,870 *35 106,971 "2 I ,, ,, Switzerland 53,327 17 88,621 *I 8 ,, , Russia and Poland 10,458 4 “O3 84,279.4 ‘17 ,, , Mexico 27,466 ‘og 68,399 "I 4 ,, , Denmark 9,962 “O3 64,196 “I 3 ,, , Holland 28,281 ‘og 70,926 "I 4 , , Italy ... 11,677 "O4 44,230 ‘og ,, , Belgium © 9,072 ‘O3 15,535 ‘O3 ,, , Spain & Portugal 8,360 'O3 13,259 “O3 ,, , Other countries e te and not specified } 21,766 o/ 37,063 o'ſ the war they have increased by some 2 millions, and a coloured population of over 6% millions remains as a fearful 1 United States Census Reports, 1860 and 1880. * This number excludes Chinese and foreign-born slaves, 3 Two-thirds of these were Bohemians. 4 More than half of these were Poles, 64 STUD/ES IN STATIS 7/CS CHAP." legacy from the greedy and unscrupulous traders of Liver- pool and Bristol. Whatever the capacity of the African race for civilization may be, and it is to be hoped that it is considerable, there can be no doubt that the presence of these millions of “men of colour” will for long enough be a constant source of political and social difficulties, the end of which it is hard to foresee. The “men of colour” at present form 13 per cent. of the whole population; it is remarkable that the pro- portion of foreign-born is exactly the same. But the 6% millions of foreign-born by no means represent the whole of the foreign element of the American nation. Another table in the census gives the parentage of the people, as follows— TABLE B.—CENSUS OF THE UNITED STATES, 1880. PARENTAGE OF THE PEOPLE.1 Percentages. Native-born, both parents native-born ... 35,199,787 70-33 Foreign-born, both parents native-born ... 33,252 •07 Having native fathers, foreign mothers ... 573,434 1-14 Having native mothers, foreign fathers ... 1,337,664 2-67 Having both parents foreign-born ... 12,907,178 25-79 Total ... ... 50,051,315 100.00 From Table B it appears, that out of the 6,559,679 given in Table A as “foreign-born,” 33,252 were so only in the sense that their birth-places were beyond the bound- aries of the United States, both their parents having been natives. There remain then 6,526,427 foreign-born foreigners so to say. But these are of course included in the last item in Table B, so that we get 12,907,178 – 6,526,427 = ′ 6,380,751 who were born in the States, but both of whose parents were foreign-born. To these it will be fair to add one- half of those who had one parent foreign-born, 573,434 + 1,337,664 2 = 955,549 * Excluding 104,468 born in China. Census of United States, 1880. vi THE GROWTH OF ANE W WAZYOMS. UNITED STATES 65 so that we get for the total foreign element of the population— Poreign-born of foreign parents ... º º º © º º 6,526,427 Native-born of foreign parents ... tº º tº * @ 2 6,380,751 Half of the native-born having one foreign parent 955,549 Total ... tº º º º º tº 13,862,727 Being 27.7 per cent. of the whole population, or 31.9 per cent. of the white population. We see then that nearly one-third of the whole white population is more or less foreign in sentiment and associations. Then it must be remembered that the average annual number of immigrants is stated to be 524,857," and even this number has often been exceeded, e.g. in 1882 it amounted to 788,992 It has been well said, “The United States of America are a great alembic, into which the emigrant vessels of Europe are constantly pouring a vast quantity of unknown, doubtful, and even explosive matters; the raw material of the American people that is yet to be.”” It is the great aim of patriotic Americans—and by Americans I mean men who have been for at least two generations in the country, and whose patriotism is not tempered by any lingering sympathy for another fatherland beyond the sea—to nationalize com- pletely, not only in name, but in fact, all this mongrel horde, to imbue alike German and Irishman, Scandinavian and Italian, with a thorough belief in and love for the “Constitution of the United States.” The possibility of this task depends upon whether these new-comers will continue to hang together, nation by nation, preserving 1 Average of ten years 1880-89. Report of the Chief of the Bureau of Statistics of the United States, 1889, p. cxxi. 2 Old World Questions and Mew World Answers, by Daniel Pidgeon. London: Kegan Paul & Co., 1884, p. v. F 66 STUDIES WAV STA 7TWS TYCS . . . CHAP. each their language and customs, forming individualized communities within the State; or whether they will be absorbed into the mass of citizens of orthodox belief. Geologists describe the little-known process by which metals or other minerals separate themselves from the originally fluid mass of igneous rock into crystals, grains, threads, or nuggets as one of Segregation. This suffi- ciently graphic term may be used to designate such hypo- thetical separation of one racial element from the mass of the nation we are discussing. It is pretty obvious that segregation would be both more probable and more signifi- cant in proportion as the number of those of the race in question increased. Thus, if in the past 60 years no more than 40,000 Spanish and Portuguese have migrated to the United States,' it is plain that even if the two races were to unite (an event not very probable in itself), they could achieve nothing whatever against the 50 millions by whom they are surrounded; in fact, such a small number must almost of necessity be soon absorbed and lost. But surely it is a very different matter with the Irish or Germans, who are counted by millions; for amongst these large numbers, language and customs, traditions and sentiments will be much more strongly retained, while at the same time, owing to the great facilities for marriages between persons of the same race, the purity of the stock will be likely to be kept up. 1. The Indians.—It is but fair to consider first the aboriginal race, the Red men so familiar in romance. There can be no question that they were once far more numerous than now, but it is far from equally certain that their numbers are still on the decline. For the moment taking Canada and the United States together, we get the following figures— 1 1821–1881. Almanach de Gotha, 1884. VI THE GROWTH OF NEW NATIONS, UNITED STATES 67 INDIAN POPULATION.—UNITED STATES 1880, AND CANADA 1881. United States. Tax-paying e e ſº 66,407 52 33 In the Indian territor and other “ jº } 243,527 Alaska tº e - & e e tº º c 8,655 Canada tº tº e • * * © tº º 108,547 Total tº e e tº º º 427,136 In the north-west territory of Canada, at the census of 1885, there were 4,848 half-breeds enumerated, nearly three-fourths of them French. There is no doubt that in the province of Quebec tribes of Indians have been completely absorbed into the French population, Indians of pure blood being almost unknown there; but the traces of Indian blood in the “ habitans” are often evident. A very large proportion of the population of Mexico consists of Spanish half-breeds, though it is not possible to give numbers. The Red men, the original freeholders of the American soil, are then still numerous, but relatively insignificant. At the present time they are mostly to be found in the central and western portions of the country, scattered over the prairies, among the foot-hills of the Rocky Mountains, or in the sub-arctic forests of the far north. Though they number 427,000, it should not be forgotten that this sum is made up of many nations, between which chronic warfare has been a tradition for generations past—nations that have no bond of union save suspicion, hatred, or fear of white settlers. The elements needful to unite the scattered tribes do not seem to exist, and without union they must remain utterly powerless to resist the encroach- ments of the advancing waves of civilization—a civilization which, it must be confessed, has too often exhibited a barbaric exterior to the Indian. Nor is there any reason to suppose that the Indians of the north are likely to 68 STUDIES IN STATISTICS CHAP. ally themselves with the numerous Indians and still more numerous Spanish-Indian half-breeds of Mexico. The Red man, it is admitted, has many fine qualities, not the least of which is the difficulty of taming his proud nature. From what I have myself seen in Canada, I have hopes that the wise policy of the Dominion Government will be rewarded. Canadian pioneers are naturally impatient in waiting for results, but that the Blackfoot Indians, until a very few years ago the fiercest and most dreaded tribe, have taken the first steps in civilization, I am convinced by what I saw in 1884. But while speaking thus hopefully, I do not mean to imply that in the future the Red man will play more than a very subordinate part. He is completely out-numbered, and has to begin a new mode of life from the very beginning. The Indians of the east that early explorers found cul- tivating the soil, growing “Indian" corn, have disap- peared. A war of extermination, the diseases of the white man, and above all his “fire-water,” have proved too much for them. A wiser and more generous policy may keep alive the hardier and more vigorous Indians of the prairies, but they have no political future. Numerous though they are, and troublesome as they are likely to be for many years to come, they can scarcely be regarded as a powerful body. Their ancient divisions into many nations, that lived in a state of chronic warfare one with the other, taken in connection with the immense area over which they are spread, make their prospects of political power in the future infinitesimal. At the same time, it must not be thought that the description of the Red man given by the average western settler is much nearer to the truth than that of Fenimore Cooper. 2. The Chinese.—From the aborigines we will turn to the newest comer. In 1880 there were 105,613 Chinese v1 THE GROWTH OF NEW NATIONS. UNITED STATES 69 in the United States, as against 35,000 in 1860. The great majority (92 per cent.) are to be found west of the Rocky Mountains, in the cities of California (especially San Francisco), and working in the mines. In Canada in 1881 there were but 4,383, most of them in British Columbia. It would appear, then, that in spite of all the sensational statements that have been made on the subject, the Chinese settlements on the Pacific coast of the American continent are not as yet, numerically at all events, very formidable. When the Chinaman emi- grates he leaves his women-kind at home; the natural consequence is that he does not stay long. He is, in fact, not a settler, but a mere bird of passage. His manner of life, and above all his thrift, may lead to very serious social and economic results, but until he breaks through custom, and, like the Irishman, takes his family with him on his wanderings, he can have no political future in America. Should the Chinese once really take to emigra- tion, it is difficult to say what the results might be, not only to California and British Columbia, but to Australia and throughout the Pacific. - The labour markets both in California and British Columbia have already been much disturbed by Chinese competition, and enactments have been passed both by Congress' and the Dominion Government to check their immigration. It may be noted here, that any possible future arrangements giving greater autonomy to the regions west of the Rocky Mountains would not result in improving the position and prospects of the Celestials. 3. The Negroes.—These, including all of mixed blood, number 6% millions, and, as has been said, they have 1 Since this was written a treaty has been signed between China and the United States, by which the immigration of Chinese labourers into the United States is absolutely forbidden for twenty years. 7o STUDIES IN STATISTICS CHAP. increased by upwards of 2 millions in 20 years. During the decade 1870-80 the coloured population increased by nearly 35 per cent., while the white population, in spite of the enormous immigration, increased by only 29 per cent. To some extent this increase is doubtless owing to inter- marriages between whites and mulattoes, quadroons, octoroons, &c., but it is asserted that such unions are far less frequent than they were before the war. As is well known, the distribution of the coloured population is fairly clearly defined. In New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, the Indian territory, and New Mexico, and all states and territories to the north or west of these, the coloured popu- lation is under 5 per cent of the whole, and in Missouri under 7 per cent. In all the states to the south of these the proportion of men of colour exceeds 16 per cent. In Virginia, Georgia, Florida, and Alabama the proportion exceeds 40 per cent. In Louisiana it amounts to 51, in Mississippi to 58, and in South Carolina to 61 per cent. The accompanying map (Plate IX.) shows by gradation of colour these proportions." The very rapid increase of the coloured population, and its concentration in certain states, constitute the gravest social and political danger to the future of the Republic; in more than one sense a black cloud may be said to hang over it. Experiments in self-government by negroes have been carried on in Liberia since 1822, and in Hayti since 1795. A republic in the former country, an empire, a monarchy, and finally a republic in the latter, have alike proved, I will not say failures, but rather disasters. A constant succession of revolutions has resulted not merely in anarchy 1 In studying this, and similar maps in this work, it should be borne in mind that absolute numbers are not represented, but proportions only. - - - . 40 - Colo. º "… NEBR. | KANS. I. T. * CEN SUS 1880-81 COLOURED POPULATION Proportion per cent of the population of each PROVINCE, STATE & TERRITORY º 30 O F CANADA - ------j---- AND THC UNITED STATES J25. seale of English Miles --> --> --- -o-o: -º-º-o: --- 25 - . T * * * Sº \. l, | ºt " | - C. * *\ \ 120 Longlis W. Gr. 0. 105. loo" 95. 90' 75' 70’ || || per cent. - 10 per cent. 25 per cent 50 per cent. Zondon, ſtanzords &eogºsº London: Edward Stanford. v1 7AHE GROWTH OF WE W NATIONS. UAVITED STATES 7.1 * but in barbarism, a barbarism that is not figurative but real, in which fetishism has spread, and even cannibalism has been resorted to. That the blacks have now a large share of political power in some of the states is evident ; that they will have yet more in the future is to be expected; it only remains to hope that the strong hand of the Federal Government, and the influence of example, will keep those states from the fate of Liberia and Hayti. Before proceeding to discuss the part now taken and in the future to be taken by some of the European races in the United States, it will be as well to give in somewhat more detail the teachings of the census as to the parentage of the people. TABLE C.—UNITED STATES CENSUS, 1880. FOREIGN PARENTAGE 1 (INCLUDING CHINESE). g I. II. III. P t f whol Parent Native of Father. Mother. Mean. *::::::::: Olie Ireland tº E tº g & º 4,529,523| 4,448,421| 4,488,972 8-9 Germany tº e & tº tº º 4,883,842|| 4,557,629| 720 ,735 9.4 Great Britain... ... 2,039,808 1,790,200 1,915,004 3.8 Scandinavia ... * > * * * 635,405| 631,309| 633,357 I '3 British America tº gº tº 939,247| 931,408| 935,328 I '9 Other Foreign Countries 1,321,485| 1,226,113| 1,273,799 2'5 Total 14,349,310||13,585,080|13,967,195 27-8 1 Census of United States, 1880, vol. i. p. 674. The figures in this table are partly estimated in the following manner— The details of parentage were “tallied ” for 28 states, 7 territories, and the district of Columbia, which together comprise a population of 26,354,124, including 2,673,217 foreign-born, made up as follows— Per cent. of all those in United States. Natives of Ireland • * * 686,322 to e º 37°o 25 Germany we e e 661,369 { } {e º 33-6 25 Great Britain ... 302,484 tº gº tº 33°o 25 Scandinavia ... 218,165 © tº º 49'6 5 y Dritish N. America 340,656 e e dº 47' 5 35 Other Countries... 464,221 © tº ſº 59' I Total ... 2,673,217 • * 4O'O 72 STUDIES IN STATISTICS CHAP. This table gives for the predominant nationalities the numbers of those who had foreign fathers and mothers. I have added a column giving the mean of these two, as the best available measure of the strength of each national element ; also the proportion per cent. of these mean numbers to the whole population. The above figures may advantageously be combined with those relating to birth-places (see Table D), so as to show for each nationality the foreign-born, the native-born of foreign parents, and the total, this last being the number in column III. of Table C. Firstly, a few general remarks as to Tables C and D. It will be seen from Table B that there are more natives of the United States having a foreign father and a native mother, than with a foreign mother and a native father, nearly two and a half times as many. This is easily The following results were obtained— Persons with foreign fathers tº e c & & gº º e tº º gº 5,529,331 53 29 mothers • * * tº º º tº e º tº º ſº 5,223,497 29 both parents foreign © tº º tº gº º tº e º 4,994,017 2 3 one or both parents foreign , .. * & © tº º º 5,758,811 Foreign-born, both parents native-born ... & E tº tº dº tº 13,307 A further analysis showed that— To 1000 born in Ireland there were with Irish fathers, 2442; with Irish mothers, 2387. To 1000 born in Germany there were with German fathers, 2483; with German mothers, 2306. To 1000 born in Great Britain there were with British fathers, 2223; with British mothers, 1941. To 1000 born in Scandinavia there were with Scandinavian fathers, 1690; with Scandinavian mothers, 1671. To 1000 born in British North America there were with British North American fathers, 1310; with British North American mothers, 1292. To 1000 born in other foreign countries there were with other country fathers, 1559; other country mothers, 1439. It was then assumed by the census authorities that the same ratios would hold in the states for which the figures were not “tallied.” As the states “tallied ” seem to be fairly representative states, the assump- tion was perhaps a fair one, and the figures in tables C and D may be accepted as approximations. vi THE GROWTH OF WEW WAZYoMS. UNITED STATES 73 explained. In nearly all returns of emigration it is found that many more men than women leave their native country. In the case of the Chinese, as stated above, scarcely any women emigrate. French and Spanish women are very unwilling to leave their homes; in the case of the Irish, on the contrary, there seems to be no such repugnance. The excess of foreign men will naturally seek wives in a large number of cases among the women of the country. TABLE D.—FOREIGNERS IN THE UNITED STATES 1 (INCLUDING CHINESE). —r- I. II. Ratio of Foreign-born of Native-born of Total. II. : I foreign parents. |foreign parents. e tº sº. e. Ireland ... tº ſº tº 1,854,571 2,634,401 || 4,488,972| 1:42 Germany ... e º 'º 1,966,742 2,753,993 || 4,720,735| 1:40 Great Britain e tº G 916,114 || 998,890 1,915,oo4|| 1:09 Scandinavia tº E is 440,262 193,095 633,357| 44 IBritish America ... 717,157 218,171 935,328|| 30 Other Foreign Countries 647,377 626,422 1,273,799| 97 Total ... § - e. 6,542,223 7,424,972 |13,967, 195|| 1:13 From Table D we learn, that in the case of the Irish, German, English, and Scotch races the children of settlers born in America outnumber the surviving immigrants, the excess amounting to 40 per cent. in the case of the Irish and Germans. With respect to the Scandinavians, Canadians, and other nationalities, quite the reverse is the case—the immigrants outnumber the second generation of settlers. The children of Canadian parents amount to only 30 per cent. of the number of natives of Canada, and the children of Scandinavian parents to 44 per cent. of the natives of Norway, Sweden, and Den- mark. In these latter cases two explanations are possible, —(1) the immigrants may not be true settlers, but rather, 1 The figures in this table are partly estimated. See note to Table C. 74. STUDIES IN STATISTICS CHAP. like the Chinese, birds of passage attracted to the country by high wages, but returning home when they have “made their pile,” as American slang so pithily expresses it ; or, (2) the migration may have been so recent that enough time has not elapsed for many children to be born, while for the same reason comparatively few of the original migrants have as yet had time to die. As regards the Scandinavians, the second explanation is probably the true one, as regards the Canadians the first. A large proportion of the natives of the Dominion living in the United States are French Canadians from the province of Quebec. They are attracted by the high wages offered by the New England factories, but their catholic and conservative feelings are repelled by the school regulations and democratic institutions of the Republic. They find their religious scruples are more respected under monarchical than under republican insti- tutions, and so they gladly return with their earnings to their native country. The French Canadian, it should be remembered, is a staunch Catholic, and views with sus- picion and distrust alike the agnostic and socialistic opinions so common in France." This explains the fact that the emigration from France to Quebec is so very small. - 4. The French.--This is a natural place to allude to the French section of the American people. Although the whole of Canada and a large portion of the United States once belonged to France, and the achievements of some of the early French explorers, notably La Salle and Verandrye, fill some of the most glorious pages in the history of geographical discovery, it is remarkable what a small share Frenchmen are now taking in the * See Old World Questions and New World Answers, by Daniel Pidgeon, 1884, pp. 173–182. - - v1 THE GROWTH OF NEW NATIONS. UNITED STATES. 75 development of the country. In Canada it is true the I+ millions of French Canadians hold their own as regards numbers, and include some eminent politicians, but it must be acknowledged that they are sadly lacking in that spirit of enterprise which marked the lives of their ancestors in the 17th and 18th centuries. In the United States there were in 1880 only 107,000 natives of France, or 0.2 per cent of the whole population; in 1860 there were 110,000. The annual number of French immigrants recorded is under 5,000. In Canada in 1881 there were but 4,389 natives of France enumerated. These small numbers are partly accounted for by the slow rate of increase of the population of France (which in its turn is due to the low birth-rate), partly by the fact that half the small French emigration is directed to South America. As remarked above, an unknown but certainly very large proportion of the natives of Canada in the United States are of French origin, and of these the majority are comparatively new-comers, who have moreover little inten- tion of permanently settling. Unfortunately the census makes no distinction between Canadians of French and British origin. The distribution of “natives of British North America,” as they are termed in the census, gives us, however, some clues. The cities most favoured by the Canadians are Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Lowell, Fall River, and New York. It is known that within recent years very large numbers of French Canadians have been attracted to the mills of New England, and on geographical grounds alone we might safely conjecture that emigrants from the province of Quebec would largely predominate in New England, while in Michigan and the North-Western States we should expect to find more natives of Ontario. This opinion is confirmed by the very interesting analysis given 76 STUDIES IN STATISTICS CHAP. in the Census Report of the parentage of natives of the United States enumerated in certain states of the Union. NATIVES OF BRITISH NORTH AMERICA ENUMERATED IN CERTAIN STATES AND TERRITORIES OF THE UNION.1 Per cent. of popu- lation of State. Maine • . . . . . . . 37,114 © º º * - © 5'7 Vermont ... tº e e 24,620 e q ^ e tº e 7'4 New Hampshire ... 27,142 tº e tº e e tº 7.8 Massachusetts • 2 & 119,302 ... tº º º 6-7 Connecticut • * * 16,444 • * * ... 2-6 Phode Island tº g tº 18,306 tº gº º * * * 6-6 Total in New England 242,928 e º º 6' I Michigan ... e tº e 148,866 e e - • O e 9' I New York • * * 84,182 • ? p • * * I-7 Illinois ... • * * 34,043 • ? - e e e I ‘I Minnesota e e º . 29,631 º e & e e e 3.8 Wisconsin * - e. 28,965 • * * • * * 2 °2 Iowa • * * ... 21,097 • * * tº G & I'3 California ... tº º e 18,889 © s º ... • * 22 Kansas ... tº e ſe 12,536 e e Q tº e ºs I'3 Dakota ... • * * 10,678 • * * • * * 7'9 Total in 9 other States 388,887 e G. e. 2'5 Remaining States 85,342 tº ºr Q - O'3 In the four New England States, Connecticut, Massa- chusetts, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island, it is found that for every 10,000 natives of the United States having fathers natives of British North America, as many as 6,966 have mothers also natives of British North America; 2,180 have mothers natives of the United States; 661 mothers natives of Ireland, and only 193 mothers natives of any other country. When, however, we investigate the parentage of the natives of the United States having British North American fathers in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and California, we get a very different result. 1 Census of United States, 1880. vi 7A/E GROWTH OF AME W AMA THOMS. UAV/7 EZ) SZA 7ES 77 NUMBER OF NATIVES OF THE UNITED STATES HAVING MOTHERS BORN IN CERTAIN COUNTRIES 1 TO EACH 10,000 HAVING FATHERS BORN IN BRITISH NORTH AMERICA. Enumerated in Enumerated in Mother a native of 4 New England States 3 other States. British North America º º ºs 6,966 tº gº º 4,519 United States tº e º g ºf g 2,180 & ſº e 4,048 Ireland ... tº sº tº tº se & 66I e g e 561 Great Britain to e is e dº if I54 ge º is 326 Scandinavia ... e. e. tº ºf e 5 tº e a 244 Germany ... tº gº º tº º ſº I 2 • * * I6 I Other Countries ... e e & 22 & & I4 I Total tº º e & e tº Io, Ooo & e º IO,Ooo The exclusiveness of the Canadians in the New England States as compared with the others strongly confirms the other evidence that they are mainly of French extraction, since & priori one would expect men not only of a different race but professing the Roman Catholic religion to be averse to mixed marriages. Unfortunately the figures for Michigan are not available, as that state is not among the “tallied.” As there must be many French Canadians outside New England, it will, I think, be safe to say that the French Canadians in the States number not less than a quarter of a million. If this be the case, taking the French in Canada and the 107,000 natives of France in the States, together with the undoubtedly much more numerous Americans of French extraction (especially in Louisiana), we may safely put the French element in North America at something like 2,000,000. The French in Louisiana are separated by too vast a distance from their cousins in Quebec and New England for any union between them to be possible. The natives of France are most numerous in New York, Ohio, Louisiana, California, Illinois, and Pennsylvania. The 1 Census of United States, 1880, vol. i. pp. 680–692. 78 STUD/ES /AW S 7.4 TWST/CS CHAP. cities containing most French are New York, New Orleans, and San Francisco. º 5. The Dutch.-These have no doubt impressed some of their national characteristics upon the American people, and the way in which Dutch names constantly rise to prominence in America shows the important influence still exercised by the early settlers of New Amsterdam. The migration from Holland to the States is, however, small, though increasing." In 1860 there were but 28,000 natives of Holland enumerated; twenty years later 58,000. In Canada in 1881 there were stated to be 30,000 people of Dutch “origin.” In any political catastrophe it might be fairly assumed that the Dutch would side rather with the Germans or English than with the Irish or French, but in any case their action could have but a trifling effect on the issue. The Dutch-born are most numerous in the states of Michigan, New York, Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, and New Jersey. The city of Patterson (New Jersey) contains a notable number of Dutch inhabitants; there are also many Dutch in Chicago and New York. 6. The Spaniards.—History reminds us of the once great nation that played so conspicuous a part in the discovery and early development of the New World. The early Spanish settlers in Florida are probably com- pletely lost in the mass of the population, and in 1880 the natives of Spain in the United States were very few ; in Canada, as might be expected, they are still fewer. The natives of Mexico are far more numerous than the natives of Spain; they are found in the States and territories along the frontier, and are probably for the 1 The number of Dutch emigrants in the five years 1882-86 averaged 4,011 per annum, “most of whom went to North America.”—Statesman's Year-Book, 1888. The American reports claim 53,000 Dutch immigrants in the ten years ending June 30th, 1889. vi THE GROWTH OF WEW WATIONS. UAVITED STATES 79 most part of Spanish extraction, but with much admixture of Indian blood. T)ISTRIBUTION OF SPANIARDS AND MEXICANS IN THE UNITED STATES.1 Spaniards. Meacicans. New York tº tº º tº ſº e 1,216 || Texas... tº s º ... 43,161 Louisiana ... & Q & 987 | Arizona tº e ge tº e e 9,330 California © Q tº tº e e 572 | California ... © & 8,648 Illinois ... tº º º e tº gº 243 | New Mexico ... © º º 5,173 Texas ... tº dº tº tº º º 240 | Louisiana ... ſº º º 424 Massachusetts ... tº º º 211 Rest of the Union tº tº gº 1,652 | Rest of the Union ... 1,663 Total ... 5,121 te 68,399 In Mexico, where the Spanish race is still predominant, the blue blood of Castile is sadly diluted by Indian admixture, and it is much more likely that the Anglo- Saxon American will absorb Mexico, than that the Spaniards will extend their sphere of influence. 7. The Portuguese.—Of 8,138 natives of Portugal in 1880, as many as 4,705 were found in California. There were also 1,161 Portuguese in Massachusetts. The Portuguese seem to be still as fond of making long voyages as in the days of Wasco di Gama. In 1884, among the inhabitants of the Sandwich Islands were 9,000 Portuguese, many of them natives of the Azores and of Madeira.” 8. The Scandinavians.—The migration from Sweden, Norway, and Denmark has greatly increased of recent years, and is very large in proportion to the population of those countries; it is mainly directed to the United States. The tables of birth-places show the increasing importance of the Scandinavian element in the American population.” 1 Census of United States, 1880, vol. i. p. 495. 2 Almanach de Gotha. * The movement of Scandinavians into Canada has only just com- 8O * STUDIES IN STATEST/CS CHAP. UNITED STATES CENSUS. BIRTH-PLACES. Natives of 1860. 1870. 1880. Sweden ... ... 18,625 ... 97,332 ... 194,337 Norway ... tº º ſº 43,995 ... 114,246 e - © 181,729 Denmark ... e e e 9,962 tº e e 30,107 . . . . 64,196 Total Scandinavia 72,582 ... 241,685 ... '440,262 Since 1880 the number of emigrants reported to have left Sweden, Norway, and Denmark has greatly increased, as has also the number of immigrants reported to have landed in American ports. From Table D we learn, that in addition to the 440,262 natives of Scandinavia in the United States, there were computed to be also 193,095 persons born in America of Scandinavian parents, making a total of 633,357. The importance of these Norsemen is greatly increased by their somewhat singular geographical distribution. This is shown in the next table ; also by the accom- panying map (Plate X.), in which the gradations of blue colour indicate the proportion of natives of Scandinavia to the total population of each province, state, and territory in 1880-81. In the areas left white the pro- portion was under one per cent. menced, and is at present of small proportions, as shown by the C011SUlS. Census of Canada. Birth-places. 1861. 1871. 1881, Sweden. l Norway. 515 tº e º 588 & e “e 2,076 I)enmark. | The Chief of the Bureau of Statistics states that in the ten years ending June 30th, 1889, no fewer than 671,783 Swedes, Norwegians, and Danes landed in the United States, so that we may expect to find that the eleventh census will show more than double as many Scandinavians as the tenth. CENSUS 1880-81 - , NATIVES OF SCANDINAVIA .. Proportion per cent of the population of each PROVINCE, STATE & TERRITORY of CANADA UNITED STATES | ºf \ 85" 80" 5.0 per cent. 7.5 per cent. London: Edward Stanford. scale of English Miles --- - lºo -o-o: -o- --" -- --- **** 75' \ 70° Zanzon, Jºanwºrds Geog”º - 10 per cent. - ºratº Gezy v1 THE GROWTH OF WE W WATIONS. UNITED STATES 81 DISTRIBUTION OF NATIVES OF SCANDINAVIA IN CERTAIN STATES AND TERRITORIES. CENSUS, 1880. - Per cent. Sweden. | Norway. |Denmark. | Total. of whole - population. Minnesota 39,176 62,521 6,071 Io'7,768 13.8 Wisconsin 8,138 49,349 8,797 | 66,284 5:0 Illinois 42,415 | 16,970 6,029 || 65,414 2-1 Iowa we e Q 17,559 21,586 6,901 || 46,046 2.8 Dakota ... e s & 3,177 | 13,245 1,447 | 17,869 13-2 Nebraska 10,164 2,010 || 4,511 | 16,685 3-7 New York 11,164 2,185 3,145 || 16,494 0.3 Michigan 9,412 3,520 3,513 | 16,445 1-0 Kansas º º tº 11,207 1,358 1,838 || 14,403 1'4 |Utah e tº c • eNº. 3,750 1,214 || 7,791 || 12,755 8-9 California 4,209 1,765 3,748 9,722 1.1 Total of these eleven States and Territories 160,371 || 175,723 53,791 || 389,885 2-4 Rest of the Union 33,966 6,006 || 10,405 50,377 0.1 Total ... 194,337 181,729 || 64,196 || 440,262 0.9 This remarkable concentration of Scandinavians within such a comparatively small area is one of the most striking facts in the Nearly one-fourth of the whole number were found in distribution of nationalities in America. the state of Minnesota where they amounted to nearly 14 per cent. of the whole population. It will be observed, that the Norwegians are even more concentrated than the Swedes and Danes, the two states of Minnesota and Wisconsin containing considerably more than half of them. The Swedes are absolutely most numerous in Illinois, but that is a populous state, and the proportion is larger in Minnesota. For the Danes, Utah seems to have great attractions. The cities containing most Scandinavians are Chicago and Minneapolis. The Scandinavians in many cases form compact settlements, their language being apparently a great bar to fusion with the Americans; thus the statistics of parentage show that G 82 STUDIES IN STATIS 7 JCS CHAP, up to 1880 there had been remarkably little intermarriage between natives of Scandinavia and natives of the United States. NUMBER OF PERSONS BORN IN THE UNITED STATES HAVING MOTHERS BORN IN CERTAIN COUNTRIES, TO EACH 10,000 PERSONS HAVING FATHERS BORN IN SCANDINAVIA, ENUMERATED IN THE STATES OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.1 Mothers born in Scandinavia tº e e e - e. 9,491 35 ,, ,, United States e & tº tº tº º 337 25 , , British North America • * s 33 25 ,, , Great Britain e a e tº e e 47 55 ,, , Germany e e e o e - 48 } } ,, , Ireland ... º & º & © tº 9 55 ,, ,, Other Countries ... tº º o 35 Total ... e tº 0 e - © tº e e Io, Coo Where the proportion of Scandinavians to the total population of the state is less than in Minnesota and Wisconsin, e.g. in California, Maryland, and the city of New York, intermarriages are relatively somewhat more frequent, wives being chosen by preference from natives of the United States, Ireland, and Germany. Under these circumstances, and bearing in mind the great increase of Scandinavian immigration in recent years, it seems likely that the Norse element will play an important part in the future history of the Republic. The Norsemen have many good qualities, and race affinity should make their assimilation by the Anglo-Saxon majority an easy matter. Language is a very potent agent in preventing the fusion of races, both directly by limiting intercourse and indirectly by preserving national sentiments and traditions. Much, therefore, depends on the ability of the masters of the elementary schools to make English the language of the rising generation. 9. The Germans.—Far more important than that 1 Census of United States, 1880, vol. i. pp. 680–692. 1880-81 CENSUS NATIVES OF GERMANY Proportion per cent of the population of each PROVINCE, STATE & TERRITORY of CANADA UNITED STATES _º -o-o: ad 35 30 105. I00" 95" *------- : "------. / scale of English Miles lºº sº. O. loo. ºoo aud *…Y º * * *\\ \ - 7 120° Longlis W. Gr. 105. 75. - 70." L I per cent. T 2.5 per cent. 5.0 per cent. 7.5 per cent. to per cent. London: Edward Stanford. Zonºon, Jºanwords GeoyºAsia: v1 THE GROWTH OF ANEW WA 77ONS. UAVITED STATES 83 played by any of the nationalities that we have hitherto considered is the part of the great Teutonic people in the New World. In 1860 the natives of Germany in the United States numbered 14 millions, while in 1880 they were but very little short of 2 millions, or a number just equal to the population of the kingdom of Würtemberg. Their importance, moreover, is increased by the fact that a large proportion of them are concentrated in a few of the states, although their segregation is not so marked as that of the Scandinavians. (See Plate XI.) IDISTRIBUTION OF NATIVES OF GERMANY IN THE UNITED STATES, 1880. Per cent.of Popula- tion of the State. New York * G e tº & g 355,913 tº ſº g 7'o Illinois ... & J & e e & 235,786 tº ſº º 77 Ohio ... tº e e º's a 192,597 tº e º 6'o Wisconsin * * > tº º ſº 184,328 tº º ve I4'O Pennsylvania tº g we tº gº tº 168,426 tº e º 3'9 Missouri tº e gº tº e 106,800 tº º e 4'9 Michigan tº @ Q. * @ e 89,085 © tº º 5'4 Iowa ... * c s Q & Cº 88,268 * tº 5'4 Indiana ... & © & tº tº º 80,756 tº º º 4' I Minnesota e g tº tº e ſº 66,592 He e & 8.5 New Jersey tº ſº & tº e gº 64,935 º º ſº 5'7 Maryland tº te g tº º tº 45,481 tº e º 4'9 California 9 gº º tº e e 42,532 º º e 4'9 Texas ... tº C tº tº º º 35,347 tº € 2 2" 2 Nebraska dº º tº ë is ſº 31,125 tº tº 6'9 Kansas ... tº ſº ſº tº º º 28,034 g º º 2-8 Total of these 16 States ... 1,816,005 tº tº a 58 Rest of the Union tº º º 150,737 tº ſº tº o'8 Total ... & º º 1,966,742 e tº e 39 It will be seen, that while the Germans are relatively most numerous in Wisconsin and Minnesota, and so far resemble in their distribution the Scandinavians, they are absolutely most numerous in the state of New York. The peculiarities in their distribution are better shown thus: 1 Census of United States, 1880, vol. i. 84 STUDYES ZAV SZTA TVS ZYCS CHAP. DISTRIBUTION OF GERMANS IN TWO GROUPS OF STATES, I880. Four Eastern States. Number. Per cent of New York, Pennsylvania, Population. New Jersey, and Maryland } 634,755 * - e. º º e * e ºs 5'6 Bight Central States. Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, ) Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, | 1,044,212 © º º tº $ tº • * * 6'6 Illinois, and Indiana Total & © º ... 1,678,967 or 85.4 per cent. of all the natives of Germany in the United States. The political significance of the fact, that some six per cent. of the population of these twelve important states consists of natives of Germany is increased by the fact, that the number of persons having one or both parents natives of Germany is still greater. To the 2 millions of natives of Germany enumerated in the United States should be added 2% millions of natives of the United States having their parents natives of Germany." The precise facts as to foreign parentage are available for certain of the states and territories only. In the next table I have given the numbers relating to German parentage in 12 states and one territory comprising a total population of 13,856,493 persons. Out of these 1,348,733 had both parents German, and 226,051 either father or mother German, making a grand total of 1,574,784 persons having one or both parents German. The census also shows us, that in these same states and territories where one parent only was German, in two cases out of three the other parent was a native of the United States; and since the tide of German immigration has been flowing in a considerable volume for nearly 40 years, it is reasonable 1 Census of United States, 1880, vol. i. p. 674. (It is remarkable that the Germans born in Canada amount to only 25,000. Those of German origin are said to amount to 250,000.) : PERSONS OF GERMAN PARENTAGE IN CERTAIN OF THE UNITED STATES.1 Both Parents German. Father only. Mother only. f A. Y r —A- r —º- N | Total one or Per cent. of Born in Foreign Born in Foreign Born in Foreign both parents | Population United Born. United Born. United Born. German. of State. States. States. States. Wisconsin ... 226,325 | 191,524 28,297 492 || 13,425 4.38 46o,5or 35-0 Missouri 144,629 109,311 38,580 424 12,117 258 305,319 14-1 Minnesota 78,255 71,009 | 12,625 413 5,817 300 I68,419 21-6 Maryland 59,167 || 45,947 | 15,334 127 | 5,033 83 I25,691 13°4. California 33,393 44,083 12,702 581 5,540 387 96,686 11.2 Texas ... 40,650 36,706 10,190 248 4,069 118 9I,981 5-8 Rentucky 45,126 30,669 11,837 86 3,749 75 9I,542 5-6 Nebraska 27,849 32,812 6,979 179 2,456 163 70,438 15-6 Louisiana . 23,066 17,512 7,697 100 4,355 127 52,857 5-6 Massachusetts 14,432 16,967 5,553 337 1,681 167 39, I37 2.2 Connecticut 14,043 15,801 3,868 68 1,298 61 35, I 39 5-6 West Virginia 10,176 7,089 4,389 36 1,175 22 22,887 3-7 Dakota 5,256 6,936 1,101 227 549 118 I4,187 10.5 Total 722,367 626,366 || 159,152 3,318 61,264 || 2,317 | 1,574,784 II "4 1,348,733 226,051 * Census of United States, 1880, vol. i. pp. 680–692. 86 S TU/D/ES MAV S 7.4 7TIS 7/CS CHAP. As might have been expected, it will be noted that a very large majority of the persons of German origin born in the United States had both parents natives of Germany. That there are more persons having a German father than having a German mother is of course explained by the fact, that among the immigrants there is always a more or less considerable excess of males. In the two states of Wisconsin and Minnesota, where Germans are relatively as well as absolutely very numerous, there were in 1880 no less than 345,502 persons born in the United States having a German father, and 323,822 persons having a German mother. It is interesting to observe the extent of intermarriage indicated, and the de- gree of attraction between different nationalities exhibited. With Wisconsin and Minnesota may be compared Cali- fornia, Maryland, and Missouri, in which states the Germans, though numerous, are not so notably predominant. GERMAN PARENTAGE IN CERTAIN STATES, 1880.1 © © California. Y. Per cent. | Maryland. Per cent. º Missouri. Natives of the United States having German fathers - Mothers being German 304,580 88' 2 237,189 78.1 2 3 25 not Gelman 40,922 II '8 66,616 2 I '9 345,502 || Ioo'o 303,805 || Ioo'o Natives of the United States having German mothers Fathers being German 304,580 94'I 237,189 91.2 2 3 , not German 19,242 5°9 22,690 8-8 - * ... • 323,822 || 10ozo 259,879 | Ioo'o As might have been expected, it is seen that the amount of intermarriage with persons of other nationalities differs in different states,” also such intermarriages are naturally * Census of United States, 1880, vol. i. pp. 680–692. * Those given in the table have been selected on account of these differences being great. VI THE GROWTH OF ANE WAVA TVON.S. UAVITED STA TES 87 more numerous in those states in which there are fewer Germans, and in which consequently the Germans will be more brought into contact with persons of other races. The difference is much more noticeable in the case of German men chosing foreign wives. It is evident that in Wisconsin and Minnesota the total amount of intermarriage is very small. The intermarriages are analyzed further in the following table. PERSONS OF MIXED GERMAN PARENTAGE IN CERTAIN STATES, 1880.1 }: Per cent. ;: Per cent. Missouri. Natives of the United States having German fathers. Mothels being natives of United States ... 27, 186 66.4 53,485 8o'4 ? 5 2 3 5 5 Ireland ... 2,486 6' I 4,153 6'2 3 5 2 3 5 y Great Britain .. 1,294 3'2 1,957 29 3 3 5 3 2 3 British N. America 859 2 "I 404 •6 3 3 5 5 5 3 Scandinavia 748 I '8 152 *2 2 3 3 5 3 5 Other Countries 8,349 2O'4 6,465 9°7 Total 40,922 IOO'O 66,616 IOO "O Natives of the United States having German mothers. Fathers being natives of United States ... 8,297 43' I 12,257 54"I 9 3 5 y 2 3 Ireland ... 1,072 5'6 1,389 6' I 5 5 > * , 2 3 Great Britain tº tº e 1,573 8-2 1,732 7:6 3 5 3 5 3 3 British N. America 869 4' 5 241 I “I 9 3 3 3 3 2 Scandinavia 569 3'O 325 I '4 9 9 9 3 2 3 Other Countries 6,862 35'6 6,746 29'7 Total 19,242 Ioo'o 22,690 Ioo'o It is evident that of the intermarriages that do take place, the majority are with natives of the United States; that is to say, no doubt in a considerable number of cases with persons also of German extraction. It is remarkable that intermarriage with Scandinavians even in the two ... states in which these are most numerous is very rare. * * Census of United States, 1880, vol. i. pp. 680–692. 88 STUD/ES /AV STA 7TWST/CS: CHAP. From general considerations of race affinity the reverse might have been expected. It will be noted, that natives of Great Britain find more favour relatively to men of other countries as husbands of German women, than as wives of German men; the same is also true of natives of British North America, Scandinavia, and “other coun- tries”; in fact, the husbands of German women when not German are a somewhat more miscellaneous lot than the corresponding wives of German men. Bearing in mind what has been said above, this is probably explained by saying that German women are less indisposed to mixed marriages than German men. As there are fewer natives of Scandinavia and of British North America in California, Maryland, and Missouri than in Wisconsin and Minnesota, it is not surprising that intermarriages with persons of those nationalities are less common in the same states; inter- marriages with natives of “other countries” are also notably less, these deficiencies being made up by a great excess of marriages with natives of the United States. Where the Germans are in a smaller minority, naturally intermarriages will be relatively more numerous. The American cities in which Germans are most numerous are New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Brooklyn, Saint Louis, and Cincinnati.” In New York City the Germans are almost as numerous as the Irish, and make up considerably more than one-fourth of the population. - NEW YORK CITY, 1880.2 IPersons with both parents German ... tº tº G • e e 331,589 55 ,, fathers only 23 ° • Q & © tº e e 25,146 25 , mothers, 35 - - - tº e e © tº e 10,557 Total ... º e e 367,292 or 30°4 per cent. of the population. * Census of United States, 1880, vol. i. pp. 538—541. * Ibid. pp. 675, 676. v1 THE GROWTH OF WEW WA TIONS. UAVITED STATES 89 Difference of language is probably the greatest bar to the amalgamation of races, and is doubtless one of the chief reasons why intermarriages between Germans and natives of other countries are, as we have seen, relatively SO few. The aggregation of large numbers of German-speak- ing people together, whether in agricultural settlements or in large towns, tends naturally to preserve their national language; the numerous German clubs and German news- papers add to and strengthen the other influences, while certainly the yearly addition of some 140,000 immigrants fresh from the Fatherland must still further increase the difficulties of the American schoolmaster. * Whether in the future any poltitical circumstances will ever bind together these millions of Germans so as to make them into a separate nation within a nation it is impossible to say ; but it is well to keep in view, that as to-day there is an Irish vote to be reckoned with, so some time there may be also a German vote. Even now one hears that the temperance party in the United States finds the beer-loving Germans the staunchest opponents of “prohibition.” d 10. The Irish.—In many ways a marked contrast to the Germans are the Irish. Though in but few cases separated from the English Americans by language, they are nevertheless clearly marked out by peculiarities of race, by sentiments, habits, and for the most part by religion. Unlike the Germans, they already exercise a powerful political influence, even greater perhaps than is due to their large numbers. The Irishman, like the Spaniard, is a born politician, and this is to both alike a misfortune. The figures of the census afford a good deal of in- teresting information illustrating the “Irish Question” as it affects America. 90 CHAP. STUD/ES / W S 7.4 77S 7/CS DISTRIBUTION OF NATIVES OF TRELAND IN THE UNITED STATES, 1880.1 Number in Fº cent of total - State. º of New York 499,445 9 Pennsylvania 236,505 5'5 Massachusetts 226,700 12:7 Illinois 117,343 3-8 New Jersey 93,079 8'2 Ohio a tº e 78,927 2'5 Connecticut tº ſº º ... 70,638 II 3 California 62,962 7'3 Missouri ... 48,898 2'3 Iowa 44,061 2:7 Michigan 43,413 2:7 Wisconsin 41,907 3'2 Rhode Island 35,281 I 2.8 Minnesota 25,942 3'3 Indiana 25,741 I'3 Maryland 21,865 2 3 Total of these 16 States 1,672,707 5'4 Other States and Territories 181,864 o'9 Total 1,854,571 3'7 The first point, that strikes one in glancing over these figures is the remarkable difference between the distribution of the Irish and that of the Germans. The Irish are far more numerous in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut; far less numerous in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, and Michigan. There are very many both of Irish and Germans in New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Ohio, but the Irish largely preponderate in the two first, the Germans in the two latter states. *. In Plate XII. the percentage of natives of Ireland in each province, state, and territory is indicated by the depth of green colour. - It will perhaps contrast better the distribution of the * Census of United States, 1880, vol. i. pp. 492—495. 80” to per cent. 9. Proportion per cent of the population of each PROVINCE, STATE & TERRITORY of CANADA = 1 per cent. Long Ilê W. Gr. __ 105. iſ 2.5 per cent. 5-0 per cent. 7.5 per cent. London: Edward Stanford CEN SUS 1880-81 NATIVES OF IRELAND UNITED STATES scale of English Miles -oo-ºo o loo 200 woo. 400 N º \ 75' 70° _{25 \ Zondon, ſtarwords Geog"Asia: v1 THE GROWTH OF WE WAVATIONS. UNITED STATES 91 Germans and Irish to compare two groups of states, each comprising a little over 13 millions of inhabitants— the one being mainly agricultural, the other largely manufacturing. N NUMBERS OF NATIVES OF GERMANY AND OF IRELAND IN TWO GROUPS OF STATES. CENSUS 1880. Germans. Irish, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, | 937,412 © º gº 377,334 and Indiana." Per cent. of whole population ... 6'9 tº ſº º 2 '8 New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode 623,739 ... 1,161,648 Island.” Per cent. of whole population ... 4'7 ſº tº gº 8-8 Total I,561,151 I,538,982 79% of total Germans. 83% of total Irish. From these figures it is evident that the Irishman, in spite of all his land-hunger, more often seeks a new home in the manufacturing centres of America than on its prairies. Can it be that the “horrors of the mid-passage” destroy his appetite % or is it rather that this much-talked- of land-hunger loses its political value in his new home 3 The cities which find most favour in his eyes are New York, Philadelphia, Brooklyn, Boston, and Chicago.” In New York City there were in 1880 no less than 388,920 persons both of whose parents were Irish, in addition to 23,048 persons who had an Irish father, and 23,469 persons with an Irish mother, so that considerably more than one-third of the whole population of the city had either one or both parents Irish; and nearly 200,000 of these, or more than one-sixth of the whole population, * Aggregate population, 13,612,056. * Aggregate population, 13,179,194. * Census of United States, 1880, vol. i. pp. 538–541. 92 STUD/ES MAW S 7"A TIS 7/CS CHAP. were actually natives of Ireland. It is not difficult to understand how it is that the Irish under these circum- stances manage to manipulate municipal politics to their own advantage. It is curious that in New York, while Irish men rarely marry German or Scandinavian women, it is comparatively common for Germans or Scandinavians to take Irish wives. * In either case, however, only a small portion of the Irish intermarriages are with the Teutonic races, the great majority being with natives either of the United States or Great Britain, and of these again no doubt a large proportion are with persons of Irish extraction. CITY OF NEW YORK, 1880.1 PARENTAGE OF THE PEOPLE. Irish fathers. Irish mothers. Mothers German tº G & 508 Fathers German . . . 2,747 ,, Scandinavian ... 9 ,, Scandinavian... 3.24. Total mothers not Irish 22,006 Total fathers not Irish 22,496 The distribution of persons of Irish parentage in several of the states is shown in the next table, which emphasizes the remarkable figures given above. In Massachusetts and Rhode Island the Irish form more than 30 per cent. of the population, and in Connecticut 27 per cent. It is very unfortunate that the figures of the United States census relating to parentage were not “tallied" (analyzed) for the important states of New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Illinois. It is also a great pity that French Canadians have not been distinguished from Canadians of British origin, as it would have been very interesting to study the intermarriages of the French Canadians, more especially with their co-religionists the Irish. * Census of United States, 1880, vol. i. pp. 675-6. § IRISH PARENTAGE IN. CERTAIN OF THE UNITED STATES. Both Parents Irish. Father only. Mother only. Born in Foreign * Born in Foreign Born in Foreign Total one or | Per cent. of United Born. lunited Born. United Born. both parents | population of States. States. States. Irish. State. 247,822 240,015 23,535 | 2,955 25,918 2,030 542,275 || 30-4 82,952 | 72,218 || 6,631 || 315 8,078 || 301 || 170,495 || 27.4 58,315 66,440 11,527 | 1, 193 17,733 1,239 I56,447 18-1 68,681 46,613 15,420 | 1,184 9,961 996 I42,855 10.9 56,546 51,289 17,335 578 8,598 543 I34,889 6-2 40,459 29,834 8,872 | 1,052 5,964 808 86,989 11.1 36,916 || 37,550 || 4,110 || 487 || 4,822 | 404 84,289 || 30-5 . 25,412 22,240 7,920 187 4,532 176 60,467 6'5 23,529 18,704 6,910 I 53 3,268 112 52,676 3-2 15,767 13,926 4,281 | 106 || 5,103 92 39,275 4-2 15,874 12,652 3,027 375 2,338 276 34,542 10-4 12,680 | 11,407 || 4,247 446 2,611 320 3I,7II '7-0 13,600 14,094 | 1,264 269 1,659 158 3 I, O44 8-9 698,553 || 636,982 II.5,0.79 || 9,300 || Ioo,585 || 7,455 1,567,954 I 2-6 1,335,535 232,419 PERSONS OF Massachusetts Connecticut ... California Wisconsin Missouri Minnesota Rhode Island... Maryland Kentucky Louisiana Vermont Nebraska New Hampshire Total of these 13 States 1 Census of United States, 1880, vol. i. pp. 680–692. 94 - STUD/ES /M STA TYS 7/CS CHAP. with persons of other nationalities) in the three character- istically Irish states, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, and also in three states in which Germans prevail, viz. Missouri, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. IRISH PARENTAGE IN CERTAIN STATES, 1880.1 Massachusetts. Missouri. Connecticut. Per | Wisconsin. Per * Rhode Island, cent. | Minnesota. cent. Natives of the United States having Irish fathers Mothers being Irish 367,690 91.5 | 165,686 || 799 55 , not Irish 34,276 8.5 41,627 | 20:1 - 401,966 Ioo'o 207,313 | Ioo'o Natives of the United States having Irish mothers Fathers being Irish 367,690 90°5 | 165,686 || 87.1 35 , not Irish 38,818 9:5 24,523 | 12:9 406,508 Ioo'o | 190,209 | Ioo'o As before in the case of the Germans, we see that in those states where the Irish are relatively most numerous intermarriages are least frequent. It will, however, be noted that while Irish men appear to be more exclusive in their attentions than German men, on the other hand, Irish women are more attractive than German. On the next page is a detailed analysis of the results of inter- marriage. - . This table shows the relatively considerable number of intermarriages between Irish and natives of Great Britain or British North America, but of these doubtless a con- siderable number are of Irish extraction, so that, strictly speaking, they are not intermarriages in the sense in which the term is here used. 1 Census of United States, 1880, vol. i. pp. 680–692. v1 THE GRO WZH OF ANE W AMATIONS. UAVITED STATES 95 PERSONS OF MIXED IRISH PARENTAGE IN CERTAIN STATES, 1880.1 Massachusetts. Missouri. Connecticut | Per cent. Wisconsin. |Per cent. Rhode Island. Minnesota. Natives of the United States having Irish fathers. Mothers being natives of United States 22,666 66-2 || 31,631 76 o 5 5 9 3 3, 2 Germany 344 I “O 1,749 4'2 53 9 3 2 3 Great Britain 6,384 I8-6 3,635 8.7 92 3 3 2 3 British N. America 4,446 I3'O 3,871 9 3 3 J. 3 3 9 J Scandinavia 81 *2 153 '4. 5, 2 2 3 9 3 Other Countries 355 I 'O 588 I'4. Total tº e - - e. e. • * * 34,276 IOoo 41,627 IOO'o Natives of the United States having Irish mothers. Fathers being natives of United States 19,884 5 I'3 || 12,252 49'9 33 3 3 3.3 Germany 2,646 6'8 3,770 I5'4 5 5 3 5 2 3 Great Britain 9,358 24"I 4,606 I8-8 9 3 2 3 2 3 British N. America 4,783 12:3 2,656 Io 8 3 5 3 2 ? 9 Scandinavia 396 I*O 139 •6 2 3 5 3 3 3 Other Countries 1,751 4'5 1,100 4'5 Total tº e e - - - * * * 38,818 Ioo'o 24,523 IOO'o It is an important fact to keep in mind, that whatever may be the ultimate success of the Americans in absorbing the Irish and the Germans, these two important foreign elements show as yet very little tendency to mix, a fact which may have sinister results for the Republic. Mean- while the Irish continue to pour in to the extent of some 67,000 a year. 11. Natives of Great Britain.—If I am not much mis- taken, even the Yankee most given to “Spread-eagleism” (especially when catering for the Irish vote) must in his heart of hearts feel more interest in the immigrants from Great Britain than in any others. Whatever ill-feelings may have resulted from political differences, the British are still his kith and kin, united to him by history, language, and literature ; Germans and Scandinavians may make 1 Census of United States, 1880, vol. i. pp. 680–692. 96 STUDIES ZAV STA 7TWST/CS CHAP. ***. Jº’ wº.: t \ quiet, law-abiding citizens, but they differ from him in language and in traditions, and are not so easily assimilated by the body politic. The natives of Great Britain amount to 916,114, made up as follows— NATIVES OF GREAT BRITAIN IN THE UNITED STATES, 1880. Proportion per cent. to popula- tion of mother countries in 1881. Natives of England tº ſº tº 662,676 * @ tº tº º º 2.7 3 2 , Wales e tº gº 83,302 tº º º e tº ſº 6-2 22 , Scotland © tº e 170,136 tº º e dº º º 4-6 Great Britain § tº º © tº ſº 916,114 © tº gº tº º ſº 3.1 ,, , , Ireland tº e dº 1,854,571 tº º te © tº ſº 35's The first thing to be noticed is, that whereas the natives of Ireland in the United States equal fully one-third of the population of Ireland, the British born equal 3 per cent. only of the population of Great Britain. The Welsh are relatively most numerous, the English least so, the Scotch occupying an intermediate position. The following table shows the distribution of natives of Great Britain in those states in which they are absolutely W., or relatively most numerous. It is not much to the was: credit of our country that the proportion is highest in the territory of Utah; the English and Welsh in the United *States are represented about in proportion to their , ºf ** numbers, but the Presbyterian Scotch and the Roman ...” * sº /* * Catholic Irish would appear to be proof against the seductive preaching of Mormon missionaries. In Plate XIII. the percentage of persons born in Great Britain in each state, &c. is indicated by the depth of red colour. 35 _X40 _{35 \ … Proportion per cent of the population of each ld PROVINCE, STATE & TERRITORY 30 of CANADA And TH- UNITED STATES 25 seale of English Miles 25 --- ud-d- o loo 200 ºu --- - * ... ºn w * * * * \. l, - -- \ 0. * "A \ 120 Long Ilê W. Gr. Ilo 105. 100 95 90 85 80" 75. 70’ | | per cent. | 2.5 per cent. so per cent. 7.5 per cent. 10 per cent. Zondon, ſtarvard's Geoyºtak" London: Edward Stanford. s ºr. NATIVES OF GREAT BRITAIN IN CERTAIN STATES, 1880.1 ENGLAND. SCOTLAND. WALES. TOTAL. Persons. Per cent. Persons. Per cent. Persons. Per cent. Persons Per cent. of State. of State. of State. of State. New York ... 116,362 2'29 28,066 '55 7,223 ‘14 | 151,651 3°o Pennsylvania 80,102 I'87 20,735 '48 29,447 '69 || 130,284 3°o Illinois 56,318 I-83 15,645 ‘5 I 3,694 *I 2 75,657 2.5 Ohio 41,555 I'3o 8,946 28 13,763 "43 64,264 2 "O Massachusetts 47,263 2’65 12,507 ‘70 873 ‘os 60,643 3"4 Michigan 43,202 2.64 10,731 '66 830 ‘OS 54,763 3'3 New Jersey 31,285 || 2:77 7,633 -67 863 •o8 39,781 3’5 Wisconsin ... 24,916 I '89 5,770 "44 5,352 '4I 36,038 2.7 California ... 24,657 2.85 6,465 ‘75 1,920 "22 33,042 3.8 Iowa 22,519 I’39 6,885 "42 3,031 "I Q 32,435 2 *O TJtah 19,654 13.65 3,201 || 2:22 2,390 I-66 25,245 || 17.5 Missouri 15,798 ‘73 3,641 '17 1,766 •o:3 21,205 I'o Ransas 14,172 I'42 3,788 '38 2,088 "2 I 20,048 2 *O Connecticut 15,453 2'48 4,157 -67 407 •o'ſ 20,017 3°2 Rhode Island 12,500 4'52 3,039 || I’Io 167 'o6 15,706 5’7 Colorado 8,797 || 4:53 1,673 •86 1,212 *62 11,682 6°o Other States 88,123 "4 I 27,254 “I3 8,276 'o.4 123,653 •6 Total ... 662,676 1°32 || 170,136 '34 83,302 ‘17 | 916, II.4 I-8 * Census of United States, vol. i. p. 494. 98 STUDIES IN STA TVS 7./CS CHAP. With the exception of a predilection for Utah (which, however, does not attract a number of settlers that is absolutely very great), the British settlers are very evenly spread over the northern and western states. The English are about four times as numerous as the Scotch, and it will be observed that this proportion is maintained in nearly all the states except Utah and Colorado, in both of which the English are relatively, as well as absolutely, the more numerous. The distribution of the Welsh is, however, very peculiar. In the aggregate they are just half as numerous as the Scotch, but this proportion is preserved in very few of the states—in Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Michigan, Connecticut, and New Jersey there are both absolutely and relatively very few Welsh, but in Colorado, Ohio, Wisconsin, and especially Pennsyl- vania, they are remarkably numerous. In the city of Scranton, Pa., there are 3,616 Welsh, and in Pittsburgh, in the same state, 2,012. It is possible, though I do not know it to be the fact, that they are largely employed as coal-miners in the last-named state. The cities in which most English and Scotch are to be found are New York, Philadelphia, Brooklyn, and Chicago. From the three following tables we learn that, as might have been expected, the British settlers intermarry very freely, and they are no doubt soon absorbed into the body politic; this is as it should be, and cannot but be a cause of rejoicing to Englishmen and Americans alike, since everything that tends to draw together the United States and the United Kingdom must be for the advantage of both. The United States is one of the grandest products of British enterprise; and if we cannot but regret that we do not owe allegiance to a common government, we must be glad to see anything tending to strengthen the British element and the British way of looking at things s * PERSONS WITH PARENTS NATIVES OF GREAT BRITAIN IN CERTAIN OF THE UNITED STATES.1 *– Both parents G. B. Father only. Mother only. ºr —Y r— — I r- A - Total one or | Per cent. of Born in © Born in & Born in ... [both parents | population of United * United Foreign United º British. State. States. e States. Born. States. tº Massachusetts 26,246 56,023 21,532 || 3,971 || 13,701 || 2,372 | 123,845 7-0 Wisconsin 36,144 37,219 20,988 1,746 | 11,912 916 || Io&,925 8-3 California 18,381 35,467 16,178 2,166 9,893 | 1,580 83,665 9-7 Missouri 14,724 21,134 | 16,431 837 || 7,517 665 61,308 2.8 IRhode Island... 7,336 13,598 4,490 618 3,139 566 29,747 10-8 Connecticut ... © O & 10,578 18,877 7,689 389 5,084 332 42,949 6-9 Minnesota 9,644 14,615 9,624 1,441 4,955 882 4I, I61 5-3 Nebraska 7,968 11,862 6,810 671 3,780 441 3I,532 7.0 Maryland 6,325 8,205 6,386 240 3,259 211 24,626 2-6 Colorado 5,412 11,935 2,811 407 1,650 302 22,5I7 11-6 Texas... 3,593 8,474 6,313 375 2,220 243 21,218 1-3 146,351 || 237,409 | I 19,252 | 12,861 | 67,11o 8,510 || 591,493 5'4 Total of above States 383,760 207,733 1 Census of United States, 1880, vol. i. pp. 680–692. IOO CHAP. STUDIES WAV STA TISTICS : . ; : BRITISH PARENTAGE IN CERTAIN STATES, 1880.1 Natives of the United States having British fathers Mothers being British 99 , not British Natives of the United States having British mothers Fathers being British not British 93 22 Massachusetts. l Wisconsin. Per Per Rhode Island. Mi i. ë. Cent. mº. cent. 44,160 | 56.7 | 60,512 || 56.3 33,711 43'3 || 47,043 || 437 77,871 Ioo'o 107,555 Ioo'o 44,160 66.8 60,512 7 I’3 21,924 33'2 24,384 28-7 66,084 I oo'o | 84,896 || Ioo'o PERSONS OF MIXED BRITISH PARENTAGE IN CERTAIN STATES, 1880.” Massachusetts. Wisconsin. Rhode Island. |Per cent. | Missouri. Per cent. Connecticut. Minnesota. Natives of the United States having British fathers. Mothers being natives of United States 20,542 61 to 35,230 74° 92 3 y 2 3 Ireland 9,358 27-8 4,60 6 9.8 9 3 5 3 5 5 Germany 387 I'I 2,305 4'9 9 3 2 3 9 3 British N. America 2,998 8-9 3,042 6'5 9 3 2 3 2 3 Scandinavia 76 *2 869 I '8 2 3 2 3 3 9 Other Countries 350 I "O 991 2* I Total ... tº tº g a tº 33,711 IOo'o 47,043 || Ioo to Natives of the United States having British mothers. Fathers being natives of United States 12,672 57.8 || 15,903 65°3 9 3 2 3 3 3 Ireland 6,384 29' I 3,635 I4'9 2 3 2 3 2 3 Germany 984 4'5 1,953 8'O 3 3 2 3 2 3 British N. America| 1,114 5' I 1,607. 6"6 92 32 2 3 Scandinavia 129 *6 597 2°4 2 3 3 5 2 3 Other Countries 641 2'9 689 2-8 Total 21,924 Ioo'o 24,384 l IOO'O If these figures be compared with those relating to the Irish in the same states, it will be observed that the * Census of United States, 1880, vol. i. pp. 680–692. : : . : ; 2 Ibid. VI THE GRO WTH OF A F W MA 7TWOAVS. UNITED S 7TA 7TES IOI British show no exclusiveness in their matrimonial relations. As regards the nationalities selected, there is much less difference than might have been expected. The British are even rather less disposed than the Irish to unite with the Germans, though somewhat less averse to Scandinavian partners. British men are more disposed to take Irish wives than Irish men are to take British wives. The Irish, however, intermarry more freely with the Canadians. - - In proportion to the natives of Ireland, the natives of Great Britain in the States are slowly gaining ground. The apparent decline of the Irish in the United States (and the same thing is true in England) is partly due to the gradual diminution by deaths of the large numbers of Irish who left their native country for America (and for England) in the years 1847-53, partly to the fact that emigration from Great Britain has been more active in late years. An average of 81,000 British immigrants have, according to the Bureau of Statistics, landed on the shores of the United States annually since 1880. NATIVES OF THE SEVERAL PARTS OF THE UNITED KINGDOM IN THE UNITED STATES AT THREE SUCCESSIVE CENSUSES. * .* 1860. Per cent. | 1870. Per cent. 1880. Per cent. English 431,692. 2O 550,924 2 I 662,676 24 Welsh ... 45,763 2 74,533 3 83,302 3 Scotch 108,518 5 140,835 170,136 6 Irish 1,611,304 73 1,855,827 71 |1,854,571 67 Total 2,197,277 too 2,622,119 roo |2,770,685 too 12. The Canadians.—As has been said above, the United States Census does not make any distinction between Canadians of British and French origin. For this reason it would appear to be useless to analyze the I O2 STUDIES IN STATISTICS CHAP. figures relating to natives of British North America. What I have to say on the subject has been given in connection with the French in America." It should, however, be borne in mind, that there are in the United States probably 400,000 natives of Canada of British origin. THE FOREIGN-BORN GENERALLY. We learn from the detailed figures in the accompanying table several facts of importance— (1) The foreign-born formed a smaller proportion of the population in 1880 than in 1870. This, as was explained above (p. 55), is due to the fact that, as a new country increases in population, a time comes when the natural increase exceeds the immigration ; equal annual increments bear a smaller and smaller proportion to the whole population; the older immigrants die off, and their places are taken by their children born in the country. In some individual states, e.g. in Maine and New Hamp- shire, the proportion of foreign-born has increased, owing to the immigration of Canadians during a period of great commercial depression in Canada; also in Florida, owing to the impulse recently given to fruit-culture in that state. (2) The distribution of the foreign-born is very irregu- lar. They are relatively most numerous in the far west. That portion of the country which includes Dakota, Nebraska, Colorado, Arizona, and all the states and terri- tories to the west of these, is, excepting California (which contains more than one-third of the whole population of this vast area), very thinly populated, containing less than 2# millions of people; but of those 640,000, or 29 per cent., are foreign-born, the proportion in Nevada and Arizona reaching 40 per cent. In Minnesota and Wis- * See above, page 74. v1 ZAZE GROWTH OF NEW WATIONS. UNITED STATES 103 consin the foreign-born are about one-third of the popula- tion ; in New York, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island about one-fourth ; in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Illinois they range from 12 to 19 per cent. On the other hand, in Virginia, Tennessee, the Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Arkansas they constitute but 1 per cent. of the population or less. Within this latter area, however, the blacks make up from 26 to 61 per cent. of the population. .” THE PERCENTAGE OF FOREIGN-BORN IN EACH OF THE STATES AND TERRITORIES IN 1870 AND IN 1880; ALSO FOR A NUMBER OF THE STATES THE PER- CENTAGE OF PERSONS HAVING BOTH PARENTS FOREIGN-BORN." PERCENTAGE OF PERCENTAGE OF Persons Persons Foreign- having both Foreign- having both born. parents born. parents foreign-born. foreign-born. 1870. 1880. 1880. 1870. 1880. 1880. Nevada 44'2|41*2 56'9 Vermont ... 14 °3|12°3 22'3 Arizona 60-1|39.7 50°7 Kansas ... ... 13°3||11°1 *== Dakota 33°9|38-3 59'8 Missouri ... ... 12'9| 9 '8 2 I "2 Minnesota 36'5|34-3 65°o District of Columbia | 12:3| 9:6 I9'9 California 37 °5 |33-9 52'4 Maryland ... 10'7| 8-9 I9'4 Wisconsin 34-6|30-8| 65-1 Maine ... tº tº e 7 '8| 9-1 *=º Idaho 52'6|30-6 45 °3 Indiana ... tº tº º 8’4 || 7-3 * Utah 35'4|30°6 *E* Texas ... e tº tº 7-6 7-2 I2'5 Montana 38°7|29-4 41 8 New Mexico ... 6-1 6-7 9.8 Wyoming 38°5|28-1 42.8 Delaware e tº $ 7.3| 6'5 I3'5 Rhode Island 25°5|26-8 47 'O Louisiana tº E tº 8-5 5'8 I2 °2 Massachusetts |24'2|24'9 44-8 Florida ... tº º ºs 2.6, 3.7 5'6 New York 26' 0123-8 gºmºm Kentucky * † tº 4°8 || 3 '6 8'5 Michigan 22:723-7 tº- W. Wirginia ... 3.9 || 3:0 6'9 Nebraska 25-0|21-5 37°3 Arkansas to gº tº 1-0 | 1.3 2"I Washington 21*021-0 3o'7 Tennessee e tº º 1 '6|| 1:1 2°2 Connecticut 21°1|20-9 4O'5 Virginia ... tº º º 1 1 || 1:0 I '8 Colorado 16*6|20-5 3I ‘5 Mississippi e e º 1 4 '8 I'5 New Jersey 20 '9||19 •6 tº-8 Alabama ... tº G & 1-0|| 8 I '6 Illinois 20 °3|19-0 *E* South Carolina ... 12| 8 I '5 Oregon 12°8|17-5 25 to Georgia ... e ſº a •9| 7 I 3 Iowa 17-1|16.1 &= North Carolina ... •3 '3 ‘5 Pennsylvania |15'4|1317 sº New Hampshire 9:3||133 2O"I United States ... 14'4|13°3 25.9% Ohio 14-0|12°3 x- States “tallied” 10.6|10°1 18-9 1 Calculated from tables in Census of United States, 1880, vol. i. pp. 426, 678. * Estimated. IO4 STUDIES IN STA 77S77CS CHAP. (3) The territory of Utah derives an especial interest from containing the country of the Mormons with their peculiar tenets. It is therefore worth noting the nationalities of the population of the territory, though of course it does not follow that these are the nationalities also of the Mormons themselves, since there are many “Gentiles” in the territory. TERRITORY OF UTAH, 1880.1 BIRTH-PLACES OF THE PEOPLE. .* |-iāg O pi 3 : Fºº 43.3 P. 43 8: à #33 | #### : āſā | ### £33 |&##5 Natives of the United States tº º º 99,969 69'5 2 92 ,, England tº e e e e e 19,654 I3'7 3-0 5 3 , Denmark ... • * * 7,791 5'4 || 12:1 22 , Sweden tº º º • . . 3,750 2’6 1-9 33 , Scotland ... © tº e 3,201 2°2 1-9 23 ,, Wales * - e. © e e 2,390 I'7 2-9 22 ,, Ireland º, e - • e e 1,321 '9 •07 2 3 , Norway ... © º e 1,214 •8 .7 33 ,, Switzerland ... tº º e 1,040 ‘7 1.2 25 , British North America ... 1,036 7 • 14 29 ,, Germany ... © ºn tº 885 •6 •04 2 3 ,, Other Countries © tº º 1,712 I*2 •3 | 143,963 || Ioo'o | 3 The most striking fact is, that 12 per cent. of all the Danes in the United States were found in Utah territory; the English and Welsh were also present in notable excess; but the Irish, Canadians, and especially the Germans, were proportionately to their numbers in the Republic very poorly represented. (4) Where the facts for foreign parentage are available they intensify the results given for foreign birth; on an average the number of persons having both parents foreign * Census of United States, 1880, vol. i. pp. 492—495. vi THE GROWTH OF NEW WATIONS: UNITED STATES 105 is nearly double the number of the foreign-born, but of course there are wide deviations from this average; thus in Wisconsin the proportion is exceeded, and we see that actually two-thirds of the population is either foreign-born or born in the United States of foreign-born parents; in Minnesota likewise two-thirds of the people have foreign parents. - We also learn from the census something as to the relative attractions of town life for the different nationalities. NUMBER OF FOREIGN-BORN IN FORTY-FOUR LARGE CITIES OF THE UNITED STATES IN 1880, AND ALSO PROPOR- TION OF THE WHOLE OF EACH NATIONALITY FOUND IN THESE CITIES.1 Per cent. of Natives of Number. Nationality. Italy ... tº gº tº & G º 26,893 tº º e 60-8 Hungary ... 6,644 57-6 Poland 25,459 52-4 Ireland 839,345 45' 3 Germany 761,742 38-7 Bohemia ... 33,041 38-7 Trance 40,954 38-3 Austria proper 13,081 33-8 Scotland ... 51,060 30-0 England ... 197,974 29-9 Switzerland 22, 152 25-0 Holland ... 14,293 24'6 Russia 8,777 24-6 China ... © º ſº 23,150 22-2 British North America 127,644 17-8 Wales ... tº e G 13,417 16-1 Sweden ... § 27,367 14-1 Tenmark 8,088 12.6 Norway ... 14,583 8-0 Of the more important nationalities (from an American point of view), the Irish are the most fond of towns, the Germans following not far behind them. The very small proportion of Scandinavians found in the cities is note- worthy. The Italians, Swiss, and Poles are mostly found in New York, but the Italians are also numerous in San * Census of United States, 1880, vol. i. p. 470. IO6 STUDIES /W S 74 7/ST/CS CHAP. Francisco, the Swiss in St. Louis, and the Poles in Chicago. The Bohemians especially affect Chicago, New York, and Cleveland." Mr. Crouch, the U.S. consul at Milan, informs me that the immigration of Bohemians and Hungarians has assumed large proportions in recent years, and that they form a very undesirable addition to the population, since they are far behind most European The difficuity of their language leads them to congregate together in cities and prevents Many of the Bohemians are nations in civilization. their ready assimilation. employed in coal-mines. Furthermore, the statistics of immigration give us some TABLE E.—IMMIGRATION TO THE UNITED STATES FROM THE PRINCIPAL EUROPEAN COUNTRIES, TEN YEARS ENDING JUNE 30TH, 1880, COMPARED WITH NINE YEARS ENDING JUNE 30TH, 1889.2 From Ten years Nine years Increase 1871-80. 1881-89. Absolute. Per cent. England and Wales ... 460,458 599,797 I39,339 3O Scotland º 87,564 137,828 5o,264 57 Ireland 436,871 602,458 165,587 38 Germany & © tº 718,182 | 1,360,543 642,361 89 Norway and Sweden 211,245 527,360 316, II 5 I5o Denmark 31,771 78,766 46,995 || I48 Austria-Hungary 72,969 297,520 224,551 308 Russia 39,135 168,227 I 29, O92 || 330 Finland 444 9,458 9,014 || – Poland 12,675 40,733 28,058 22 I Holland 16,541 49,375 32,834 || 199 Switzerland ... 28,293 74,995 46,702 || 165 Italy ... 55,762 255,309 199,547 || 358 France 72,201 43,876 — 28,325°| – 39° Belgium * @ tº 7,221 17,506 Io,285 142 Spain and Portugal ... 9,893 5,563 — 4,330 * – 44 ° ...}| sº ass|4-69,314|acoboso | 89 1 United States Census, 1880, vol. i. pp. 538–541. 2 Reports of the Chief of the Bureau of Statistics of the United States. 3 Decrease. v1 THE GROWTH OF AME W. NATIONS. UAV/7′ED STA 7'ES 107 insight into the changes in the constitution of the nation that are now going on, and which will very shortly be registered in the eleventh census of the United States. Table E compares the immigration during the nine years since the census of 1880 with that of the ten years that preceded it." Among the French and Spanish immigrants there has been a notable decrease, but in the case of all the other countries given in the table there is an equally notable increase. The absolute increase is greatest in the case of Ger- many; but it is very great in the case of Norway and Sweden, Austria-Hungary, Italy, Ireland, England and Wales, and Russia. Proportionately the increase is greatest in the case of Italy, Russia,” and Austria-Hun- gary, least in the case of the British Islands. These figures, therefore, confirm the impression that the people of the United States is becoming less and less British in race. Indeed, when Table E is compared with Table A (p. 63), it will be seen that more immigrants from Norway and Sweden, Denmark, Austria-Hungary, Russia and Poland, Italy and Belgium entered the country during the nine years since the census of 1880 than were respectively enumerated as living in the States at that time. Table F gives for thirteen years the proportions of females among the immigrants of various nationalities. That the Irish head the list, the number of males and females being practically equal, is a striking proof of the strength of 1 The figures in the Almanach de Gotha differ materially from those given in the Statesman's Year-Book. A reference to the original reports shows that in the former the figures are given for calendar years, in the latter for fiscal years ending June 30th. I prefer the latter, as so nearly coinciding with the census which is taken in June. 2 A new movement from Finland has originated within the last eight years, but whether the migrants are by race Swedes or Finns I have no means of ascertaining. 108 STUDIES IN STAzyszycs CHAP. the family tie with them. Then follow the great Teutonic nations, with about two females to three males. France, Switzerland, and Belgium occupy a medium position, with one female to two males. In the case of Spain and Italy, the proportion falls to one female to four males. The proportion of females is a fairly good test of the TABLE F.—IMMIGRATION TO THE UNITED STATES FROM THE PRINCIPAL EUROPEAN COUNTRIES AND CHINA. PERCENTAGE OF FEMALES IN THE THIRTEEN YEARS ENDING JUNE 30TH, 1889.1 - Ireland e is © e e G e ‘º e 49-0 Germany tº tº º tº tº ge * G → 41-8 Netherlands tº º º • & º tº e e 40-2 Austria © º º tº º te tº º º 38.8 England tº g e ge e e © tº º 38-3 Norway tº tº º • * * tº tº e 38-1 Sweden © tº ſº • * * & © e - 37.8 Scotland © e tº tº tº e tº e º 37.6 Wales tº s º tº s tº tº q tº 37.5 Denmark 6 º' e tº ſº º tº e º 37.3 Russia e tº º tº º º tº º ſº 36-0 France tº º º . . . tº º ºs 36.0 Switzerland tº tº º tº e º & e Q 35-3 Belgium g tº e tº º ſº tº ſº e 35'2 Portugal © tº gº e & tº tº e & 31.2 Poland * @ e e p tº tº gº & 30.6 Hungary • * * tº ſº º Q tº ſº 26.9 Spain tº tº e tº º ve tº tº gº 22.7 Finland ... tº º º e e e - 21.8 Italy tº ſº ſº tº º º © º º 21.2 China s s e ſº tº º $ tº ſº a 1.2 permanency of the stay of immigrants of each nationality. The Irish go over bodily, or if the men go alone they subsequently send for the other members of the family. The Italians, on the other hand, to a great extent go not so much to seek a new home as to seek work, so they do not so often take their women with them, but after a hard-working and frugal life return to the fair country of their birth, intent in many cases on buying land. The * Reports of the Chief of the Bureau of Statistics of the United States. - - . * a : 3 NTS TO THE UNITED STATES FROM CERTAIN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES. NINETEEN YEARS ENDING JUNE 30TH, 1889.1 * |Ireland. Germany. Sweden & #: Finland, Italy. |France. **|Holland, Britain. Denmark. |*8*y-lèPoland. land. 1871 85,455 57,439 82,554 22,132 4,887 | 1,208 || 2,816 || 3,137 2,269| 993 | 1871 1872 84,894 | 68,732 141,109| 28,575 4,410 2,665 4,190 9,317| 3,650 | 1,909 | 1872 1873 89,499 || 77,344 || 149,671 35,481 | 7,112 || 4,972 | 8,757 |14,798 || 3,107 || 3,811 | 1873 1874 62,021 53,707 || 87,291 || 19,178 8,850 5,868| 7,667 9,643| 3,093| 2,444 | 1874 1875 47,904 || 37,957 47,769 14,322 || 7,658 8,981| 3,631 8,321 | 1,814 | 1,237 1875 1876 29,291 || 19,575 31,937 | 12,323 6,276 || 5,700 3,017| 8,002 | 1,549 | 855 1876 1877 23,581 || 14,569| 29,298 || 11,274 5,396 || 7,132 3,195 || 5,856 | 1,686 || 591 | 1877 1878 22,150 | 15,932 29,313| 12,254 || 5,150 3,595 || 4,344| 4,159 1,808 || 608 1878 1879 29,954 20,013 || 34,602 || 21,820 5,963 4,942| 5,791 || 4,655 3,161 753 | 1879 I88o 73,273 || 71,603 | 84,638 || 65,657 17,267 || 7,191 | 12,354 || 4,313| 6,156 3,340 | 1880 (TENTH CENSUS OF THE UNITED STATES TAKEN IN JUNE, 1880.) I881 81,376 | 72,342 210,485) 81,582 27,935 | 10,655] 15,401 || 5,227 |11,293 8,597 1881 I882 102,991 || 76,432 250,630 |105,326 29,150 21,590 32,160 6,003 |10,844 || 9,517 | 1882 1883 76,606 || 81,486 || 194,786 || 71,994 | 27,625 | 11,920 31,792 || 4,821 |12,751 5,249 | 1883 1884 65,950 | 63,344 179,676 52,728 36,571 17,226 16,510 || 3,608 || 9,386 4,198 || 1884 1885 57,713 51,795 124,443 | 40,704 27,309| 20,243 13,644 || 3,493 5,895 2,689 1885 I886 62,929 || 49,619 | 84,403 || 46,735 | 28,680 21,739| 21,315|| 3,318|| 4,805 || 2,314 | 1886 1887 93,378 | 68,370 | 106,865 | 67,629 | 40,265 || 36,894 || 47,622 || 5,034 5,214 || 4,506 | 1887 I888 108,690 73,513| 109,717 | 81,924 45,811 || 39,313| 51,558 6,454 7,737 5,845 1888 1889 87,992 || 65,557) 99,538|| 57,504 || 34,174 || 38,838|| 25,307| 5,918, 7,070) 6,460 | 1889 Tºº } 548,022 |436,871 || 718,182 |243,016 || 72,969 || 52,254|| 55,762 |72,201 |28,293 |16,541 **) 737,625 |602,458|1,360,543 |606,126 |297,520 |218,418|255,309|43,879 |74,995 |49,375 TABLE G.—IMMIGRA Norway, Russia, * Reports of the Chief of the Bureau of Statistics of the United States. i I IO STUD/ES MAV SZTA 77S. TICS CHAP. r— In Table G it is possible to follow out the tide of immigration year by year. It will be noted that the maximum occurs in different years with different countries. Thus in the case of France it was in 1873, and doubtless was related to the war and the cession of Alsace and Lorraine. In Germany, Scandinavia, and Holland it was in 1882; in Ireland and Switzerland in 1883. These and the two years immediately preceding were years of great prosperity in the United States. In the case of Great Britain, Austria-Hungary, Russia, Italy (and I may add Belgium, although it is not in the table) the maximum was in 1888, and was perhaps associated with depression in those countries, but it coincides with a revival of trade in the United States. Emigration is caused by either a centrifugal or a centripetal force, by discontent at home or prospects of success abroad—at one time one, at another another will prevail. SUMMARY. In conclusion, I would urge that it is important to bear in mind that if we think of the United States as an Anglo-Saxon nation, a mere off-shoot of ourselves, we make a great mistake, and may come to very false conclusions. In 1880 that great nation consisted of 50 millions of people, but of these only 43% millions were of European stock, and only 36% millions natives of the country they live in. Moreover, we have also learned that only some 35 millions of the people were native born, and with both parents native born; from this number again may be deducted 6% millions of men of colour, leaving as real Americans' only 28% millions, 1. It has been often stated, and there is statistical as well as general evidence to support the statement, that, from whatever cause, the old American stock does not multiply at anything like the rate maintained by vi THE GROWTH OF NEW NATIONS. UNITED STATES 111 or but 57 per cent., and of course a very large number of these must have been of foreign extraction, Irish, German, French, Dutch, Spanish, &c. But if we assume these to be thoroughly nationalized, we get the following approximate constitution of the people — True Americans, whites, native born of native parents ... 28,500,000 British ... tº º e to e e tº 6 tº s • * © tº Q tº e > 2,000,000 British Canadians & 2 º' e e e e C & º e o tº º o 500,000 Total more or less of British Stock 31,000,000 Irish © e e © tº gº tº e e tº g tº e tº e - © tº e e s 4,800,000 French and French Canadians ... e - e. & O -> º tº Q 600,000 Germans ... e e a e Q & © & e tº º tº © e e tº e º 5,000,000 Scandinavians ... © º e © gº º tº e e © tº tº tº e ºp 600,000 Other European races © tº º tº ſº tº º, º º tº e ſº 1,300,000 Total Europeans other than British 12,300,000 Men of Colour ... tº o e & Q e tº º e e - e. & G & 6,600,000 Chinese and Indians G - e. © º o e Gº e tº 0 tº e e g . 200,000 50,100,000 These numbers have no pretensions to be accurate, but they are quite sufficiently near the truth for my purpose, and may probably be accepted as the nearest round numbers. In still more general terms I would say, that about 62 per cent. of the inhabitants of the United States may be looked upon as of Anglo-American stock, about 10 per cent, as Irish, 10 per cent. German, 13 per cent. African, and 5 per cent. a mixture of nearly every European race, Scandinavians and French preponderating. If there be any important inaccuracy in this statement, it consists in overrating the Anglo-American element, but I regard it as an undoubted fact, that many persons of German, Dutch, or Irish descent have been as completely the newly-arrived immigrants. If the New Englanders, the descendants of the old Pilgrim Fathers, are from this cause losing ground, it is a matter greatly to be regretted. II 2 STUDIES IN STATISTICS . . CHAP. Americanized as the Huguenots in England have been Anglicized. Indeed, these elements in his ancestry, together with the results of climatic influences, constitute the differentia of an American, whereby we distinguish him from an Englishman of the old country. There seem to be three weak points in this young but vigorous nation— the German Socialists, probably not very numerous, the Irish anarchists, and the negroes; but of these the last is by far the most serious source of trouble for the future. * . California and New England, Wisconsin and South Carolina are now in many respects very different; will time diminish or intensify these differences ! Canada appears at first sight to lie at the mercy of the United States, but is it certain that the States would be unanimous in annexing it ! Is it not conceivable that a state of war, arising say in the next century out of tariff disputes, might lead to a rearrangement, whereby the union of Canada with the great Republic might cause the disruption of the latter? Might not the Germans and Scandinavians, for example, object to an Irish proposal to “liberate” the French Canadians from their English “oppressors,” and prefer to side with the Anglo-Canadians, while in the moment of difficulty the negroes in the South took matters into their own hands º' 1 In the Century Illustrated Monthly Magazine for September 1884 (vol. xxviii. p. 761) will be found a paper by Mr. J. E. Chamberlin, entitled “The Foreign Elements in our Population.” This is written from the American point of view, and is a thoughtful paper pregnant with suggestions. VII 7 HE GAO WTH OF WE W NATIONS. CANADA 113 CHAPTER VII. THE GROWTH OF NEW NATIONS (continued). CANADA. FEw countries have had their population counted so many times and during such a long series of years as Canada." The first official census of “La Nouvelle France,” of which the results are now known, was taken in 1665, that is, fifty-seven years after the foundation of Quebec, when the population was found to be 3,215. Eight other censuses taken in the 17th century still exist, the population in 1698 having increased to 15,355. Nine censuses of New France, or Lower Canada, as it was called later, now the Province of Quebec, were taken in the last century; five years before Wolfe's triumph and death on the heights of Abraham, the population of New France was 55,009; in 1765, two years after the close of the Seven Years' War, and definite establishment of British ascendancy in North America, the census gave its popula- tion as 69,810. - The first census of the United States was taken in 1790, the result showing a population of very nearly four 1 See the Census of Canada, 1870-1, vol. iv., which contains a most interesting account of the statistics of Canada from 1605, summaries of all the censuses being reprinted therein. I I I4. - STUD/AES ZAV SZTA ZYS ZYCS CHAP. millions, including slaves. The census of Lower Canada in the same year showed 161,311 inhabitants, taking no account of Nova Scotia and the other maritime provinces, which may have contained between 50,000 and 60,000 people. In 1881 it had more than eight times as many inhabitants, having doubled in the previous thirty-seven years. Previous to 1780 Upper Canada was practically unin- habited ; it is believed that in 1784 about 10,000 of the United Empire Loyalists were settled there. In 1824 the first census of Upper Canada was taken, showing 150,066 inhabitants. It is remarkable that from that year a census was taken annually for nineteen years. In ten years the population had doubled, in a little over ten years it had again doubled itself, in another sixteen years it had again doubled itself, being in 1861 as much as 1,396,091 ; since then the rate of increase has diminished, the census of 1881 giving 1,923,228, the population having doubled itself in thirty years. Manitoba is now more populous than New France was in the hour of Wolfe's victory, while New Brunswick and Nova Scotia each contains double the population that Lower Canada did at the termination of the war of American Independence. In spite of these facts, it must be confessed that Canada does not prove so attractive to emigrants as one might wish, and it is but natural that Englishmen should view with a jealous eye the large numbers of their countrymen that year by year settle in the United States. Prior to 1840 the emigration returns (which commence with the year of the battle of Waterloo) show that the state of affairs was the reverse of the present, in each period of ten years a greater number of emigrants left these shores for Canada than for the Great Republic. In the decade 1841-50 this was entirely changed, the number of emigrants more than doubled, the great migration from Ireland VI I TAIE GRO WZTH OF NEW A. A 7TWOAWS. CA/WADA II 5 consequent on the potato famine commenced, and since then the number whose destination was stated to be the United States has constantly exceeded those going to settle in Canada; moreover, about the same time emigra- tion to our Australasian colonies began to assume large proportions, and has in many years exceeded that to British North America. In the last few years, however, Canadian immigration has shown a tendency to increase. The Dominion Government has at last succeeded in con- vincing people that Manitoba and the North-West Terri- tories of the Dominion are not the frost-bound wilderness that interested fur-traders had represented them to be. Although the rush of immigrants to these prairie lands has been exaggerated by emigration agents and others, the following figures taken from recent censuses show that, although the province is remote, and but in its eighteenth year, a great settlement has really been made. CENSUS OF MANITOBA, AS LIMITED BY AWARD OF PRIWY COUNCIL IN 1884. Increase in five years. 1881. 31 July, 1886. Actual. Per cent. Population 62,260 108,640 46,380 74 Inhabited Houses 12,102 22,180 10,078 83 But of the above increase of population 31,211, or no less than 67 per cent, were Canadian born, and only 12,078, or 26 per cent., natives of the United Kingdom. Of the population in 1886, 5 per cent. were born in Russia or Poland, 2 per cent. in Iceland, while the natives of Germany, Scandinavia, and France together scarcely amounted to 1 per cent. --- When the natives of Canada were traced back to their “origin,” it was found that of all the Manitobans, one- 'fourth were English, one-fourth Scotch, and one-fifth Irish. - The Canadian Pacific Railway entered the North-West I I6 STUDIES ZN STA 7TWS TYCS CHAP. Territory (District of Assiniboia) in the summer of 1882, placing it for the first time in communication with the outer world; by the summer of 1884 it had traversed it and the higher prairie of Alberta to the Rocky Mountains. The effect of this remarkable enterprise on the population of the “Provisional Districts” of Assiniboia, Saskatchewan, and Alberta may be seen by the following census figures, in which some 20,000 Indians are not included. CENSUS OF ASSINIBOIA, SASKATCHEWAN, AND ALBERTA, Increase in 44 years. 1881. 1885. Actual. Per cent. Population— } , Whites and Half-breeds 5,624 28,171 22,547 401 Inhabited Houses ... 2,064 9,460 7,396 358 Of the total white population in 1885 (amounting to 23,323), no less than 11,074, or one-half, were natives of Canada (Ontarians predominating largely), and only 7,158 natives of the United Kingdom, mostly of Great Britain. In Canada even more than in the United States, it would appear that new regions are mainly settled by natives of the American continent, work for which they are especially adapted. Not only is there a flow of popu- lation from the Old World to the New, but in America itself the cry is still “Westward hol” The descendants of the early settlers move on to begin again the work of subduing the wilderness as their forefathers did, while the blank spaces left in the more settled districts of the east are filled by fresh immigrants from Europe. The growth of cities in the far west is not absolutely so great as in the suburbs of London, but in some respects it is far more striking. For instance, in the Report of the Minister of Agriculture for 1882, the Brandon (Manitoba) immigration agent reports that 80,270 acres VII THE GRO WZTH OF AWAE W WA ZIONS. CAAVA DA I 17 of prairie were “broken" during the summer of that year. It is hardly surprising to be told by the same gentleman, that where eighteen months before was rolling prairie, there now stands Brandon “city,” with its 4000 inhabitants, ten miles of streets, eighteen miles of planked footways, three fine churches, a “veneered " school-house two stories high (), sixteen hotels, two banks, and a good fire brigade with a steam fire-engine ! Some of these figures, especially the estimate of population, are probably much exaggerated (there seems indeed to be something in the atmosphere of new countries that excites men to exagger- ate), but the writer was sufficiently astonished at what he saw in Brandon in 1884; it should be remembered, too, that in a very thinly populated country undergoing rapid development, a place that, so far as size goes, would be counted in Europe but a large village, has the importance and many of the characteristics of a county town in the old country, or, as the Canadians love to say, “at home.” There were in the Dominion at the census of 1881, after deducting 6,714 persons born at Sea, or whose birth- places were not recorded, 3,715,492 natives of Canada, and 602,604 persons of foreign birth; details of their several nationalities are given on the following page. From these figures it appears that the foreign-born are 14 per cent. of the Canadian population as against 13 per cent. in the United States. Similarly the Irish form nearly the same proportion of the foreign-born in the two countries, while the proportion of natives of the United States in Canada is but little larger than that of Cana- dians in the States. There are, however, some remarkable differences in the other nationalities. In the United States the French (curiously enough) are proportionally twofold, and the Germans sevenfold more numerous, while I 18 STUDIES IN STA TISTICS CHAP. the Scandinavians are more than twenty times as many. Per contra the natives of England and Wales are (propor- tionally) two find a half times as numerous in Canada, and the Scotch seven times as numerous. Thus we see that though the proportion of foreign-born is practically the same as in the States, yet these foreigners do not T)OMINION OF CANADA. BIRTH-PLACES. CEN SUS 1881. Per cent. Natives of the Dominion ... © tº 3,715,492 sº ºn tº 86°o Foreign-born © tº & © tº º to º º 602,604 tº gº tº I4°o 4,318,096 IOO"O Born at Sea, or Birth-places not given 6,714 Total population ... . 4,324,810 NATIONALITIES OF FOREIGN-BORN 1881. - Per cent. Natives of Ireland e e g tº e & tº º º 185,526 . ... 30-8 5 3 England and Wales ... © tº e 169,504 tº º tº 28' I 2 3 Scotland e & g tº & tº tº e ºs 115,062 & ſº tº I9' I 5 2. Other British Possessions ... 8,143 tº gº tº I "4 95 United States ... tº º ſº tº e & 77,753 e tº e I 2'9 29 Germany © º e & Cº º is e tº 25,328 tº g º 4°2 95 Russia ... tº ſº tº gº tº º tº tº 6,376 tº e & I "I 5 5 |France © tº & tº e e © e º 4,389 tº gº º '7 23 Scandinavia ... ſº ºn e * * * 2,076 * * * "3 25 All other countries ... tº º ſº 8,447 1 ... I '4 602,604 IOO "O cause such a race-mixture as there ; since in place of the Germans and Scandinavians, making up nearly 37 per cent. of the foreign element, they form but 4% per cent. in Canada, the difference being fully made up by an excess of English and yet more of Scotch. The great strength resulting from this purity of race is self-evident. It is to be hoped that the Dominion Government will see this, and * More than half Chinese. VII THE GROWTH OF NEW WATIONS. CANADA 119 not take steps to artificially stimulate immigration from the continent of Europe. CANADA. CENSUS 1881. ORIGINS OF THE PEOPLE. Numbers. Per cent. French e tº º tº tº º tº º ſº e e ºs 1,299,161 • . . . 3O'o Irish ... tº $ tº tº $ tº e s tº & © tº 957,403 tº $ tº 22 "I English and Welsh ... tº gº º tº tº º 892,841 tº º ſº 20:6 Scotch ... tº e ſº & e > tº º e 699,863 e tº º I6'2 German tº gº tº tº gº tº tº gº tº tº º ſº 252,848 tº ſº e 5'9 Dutch tº 9 tº © tº ſº tº g tº © e g 30,058 ‘7 Scandinavian ... tº e º * g e 4,214 tº º e "I Other Europeans and “not given '' 54,098 tº $ tº I 3 Total Europeans ... • * g. 4,190,486 tº º & 96-9 Indian . . . . . . {º} tº º tº º e 108,547 tº tº º 2'5 African • * * tº tº e * * * tº º & 21,394 e tº a ‘5 Chinese • • tº ſº tº iº tº º * * g 4,383 * † e "I Total non-European tº ºn tº 134,324 © tº ge 3' I Grand Total tº º º we e e 4,324,810 e e e roo'o The Canadian census also distinguishes the people by “origins,” although I am not able to state what the principles are on which they are determined. From these figures we learn several points of the greatest importance. In the first place, in Canada there is no “Negro question,” the population is in fact almost wholly European, the men of other races, including Indians, accounting for only 3 per cent. of the population. Secondly, the predominant racial element, no less than 30 per cent of the population, is French— French, moreover, not only by origin but by language, religion, and customs; not, however, French in political sympathies, or at least only very partially so. Thirdly, the Scotch do not fall far short of the Irish in numbers, while in energy, wealth, position, and influence they far exceed them. To a great extent Canada is a Scotch country, there is no country outside their native land upon which the Scotch have so signally set their mark as I2O . STUDYES NAV SZTA 7TIS 7/CS CHAP. Canada." In Montreal Scotch names meet the eye every- where; most of the ships sailing between Liverpool and Quebec are built in Scotland, owned by Scotchmen, and manned and officered by the same enterprising race ; & positions of importance throughout the country are held by Scotchmen; and finally, the respected Premier is Scotch, as was also his late rival. Fourthly, the Irish, although more numerous than either English or Scotch, are not, as in the United States, twice as numerous as the English and Scotch taken together. Lastly, the countries of the continent of Europe taken collectively (but excluding France) account for only 8 per cent. of the population. Canada, then, has a population characterized by a very large French element, a relatively small Irish element, and a relatively large Scotch element. The French Canadians, though not very numerous, are a very distinct and homogeneous people, and must on no account be forgotten in forecasting the future of North America. Thrifty and industrious, they patiently cultivate their small farms, using the methods of their grandfathers; ill-educated and unenterprising, they are the devoted children of the Church of Rome; lastly, unlike their kins- folk in Europe, the “habitans” of Quebec marry early and produce large families. It is by this last trait that they hold their own” in spite of the fact that while the 1 Proportion of persons born in Scotland to 100 persons born in Eng- land and Wales. In Great Britain, 14.6; in the United States, 22:8; in Australia, 25.9; in New Zealand, 43-5; in Canada, 67.9. The persons of Scotch “origin" in Canada are to those of English and Welsh “ origin” as 78.4 : 100. - 2 PERCENTAGE OF PERSONS OF FIRENCH ORIGIN. Census. Lower Canada. Upper Canada. Upper and Lower Canada. I861 tº º ºs 76.3 • * > 2.4 * * * e - © 35. I 1871 ... 78-0 * * * 4-7 tº º e º º º 35-7 1881 & e 79-1 • * * 5-3 . & © [s © e e 35.9 W II THE GROWTH OF ANE W NATIONS. CANADA 121 English, Scotch, and Irish receive constant reinforce- ments from the old country, but few recruits come from France;" on the contrary, the French Canadians pour into New England to work in the mills until they have earned enough money to return to Canada and buy land. - - In Lower Canada their political power is absolute, since the suffrage is practically universal, and they form four- fifths of the inhabitants. It is a great error to suppose that the French have been absorbed by the general popu- lation, they live quite apart from the English and Scotch, and show but little more sympathy with the Irish; indeed, until quite recently French-Irish riots were of annual occurrence in Quebec. In Montreal and Quebec French society and English society stand aloof from one another more than an outsider would believe to be possible; very few French families enter, or desire to enter, English or Scotch houses. - It is a matter of great regret that of late years two circumstances have tended to diminish the intercourse between French and British Canadians. While the vast sums spent upon the improvement of the navigation of the St. Lawrence, by giving greatly increased facilities for shipping at Montreal, have led to the transference of much 1 NATIONALITIES OF IMMIGRANTS REPORTED AT QUEBEC, NINE YEARS, 1881–1889. (From the Report of the Minister of Agriculture, 1889.) English © tº e ... 139,098 |Icelanders ... ... 5,292 Scotch ... tº tº º ... 28,387 |Jews (all in 1882) tº º º 1,375 Irish ... ... ... 39,665 | French and Belgians ... 1,382 Scandinavians... ... 5},22} AH others ... ... 2,600 Germans e tº gº ... 6,745| Total... tº º º ... 375,765 It is probable that the great majority of the Scandinavians went on to the United States, since they do not appear in the recent censuses of Manitoba and the North-West. 122 STUD/AES IAV STATIS 7/CS - CHAP. British capital from Quebec higher up the river; the with- drawal of the British garrison from its famous fortress has undoubtedly diminished the social attractions of that city. Hence Quebec is not what it was ; commercially and socially it is going downhill; it is now no longer the terminus of the great ocean route, and no longer a meeting-place for the two sections of Canadian life, but is almost exclusively a French city. Montreal, on the other hand, is growing at the expense of Quebec; but here too an unfortunate state of affairs exists, and the “French difficulty” is very obvious. While by far the greater part of the wealth, intelligence, and enterprise of the city is Scotch, English, or Irish, the large majority of the inhabitants is French, and an extended suffrage gives them complete command at the polls; hence the municipality is French, and its officials, from the mayor down to the policemen and postmen, are nearly all French nominees. Meanwhile the British population lives almost secluded in the fashionable (north- west) quarter of the city. National differences are largely maintained, and national animosities stimulated by the Societies, such as those of St. George and St. Jean Baptiste, which celebrate with un- desirable warmth and enthusiasm the national festivals. The Société de St. Jean Baptiste in particular appears to exist especially for the purpose of keeping alive the French idea, and fostering in all possible ways the French language and French customs. - Language of course has a good deal to do with this coldness, but I think religion has more. The Scotch, who are in the ascendant, give a puritanical tone to religion, which is eminently Protestant, and there is little doubt that the prejudice against the Roman Church is far stronger in Canada than in England, and the feeling is reciprocal. The catholicism of Quebec is a narrower VII THE GRO WZTAſ OF AWA W WA. ZYOMS. CAAVA DA I 23 faith than the catholicism of Europe"; it offers uncom- promising resistance to the modern spirit, which it would exclude by any possible means. Politically this has one advantage, since it tends powerfully to counteract any political influence which the French Republic might exert. The sympathy of Quebec is not with modern, revolutionary, agnostic France, but with the Catholic France of the last century; and the priesthood know well enough that they have more to fear from republican France than from conservative England. There is perhaps no part of the world in which the Church of Rome is so little interfered with as on the banks of the St. Lawrence, and in return for this liberty her French- Canadian subjects give to their Queen and her repre- sentatives a heartily loyal allegiance. But while I gladly recognize this, and willingly admit, the many good Qualities of the French-Canadians, it is impossible to help regretting that there are so few signs of real union into one people; and the existence of a million and a third of men of French race on the lower St. Lawrence, increasing more rapidly, it is believed, than any known people, cannot but be a source of anxiety and possible trouble in the future. It is worth while examining somewhat carefully the distribution of the French in Canada. The province of Quebec contains a little over a million, 83 per cent. of the whole, and in that province they constitute four-fifths of the population. In New Brunswick they number 57,000, and make up rather more than one-sixth of the popula- tion. In Manitoba and the Territories the recent censuses show that the other nationalities (as the result of recent 1 Sir Charles W. Dilke, in Problems of Greater Britain, says that in Canada Roman Catholicism has a puritanical side, thus e. g. it discourages dancing. I would remark that this chapter was written before the appearance of Sir Charles's new work. 124 STUDIES IN STA ZYSTICS CHAP. immigration and settlement following the opening up of the country by railways) are rapidly gaining on the French, and it is plain that those provinces are not destined to fall permanently under French influence. As regards the rest of the Dominion, in Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia the French form barely one-tenth of the people, in Ontario but 5, and in British Columbia but 2 percent. The concentration of the French in Quebec cannot, however, be made by the most radical politician an excuse for separating CENSUS OF CANADA. 1871 AND 1881. PROPORTION PER CENT. OF PERSONS OF FEENCH ORIGIN IN THE SEVERAL PROVINCES TO THE TOTAL OF EUROPEAN ORIGIN, i. e. EXCLUDING INDIANS, AFRICANS, AND CHINESE. 1871. 1881. Prince Edward Island ... — 1 ... 9.9 Nova Scotia & © tº tº G & 8-6 • e e 9-3 New Brunswick ... © tº º 15-9 to e e 17-8 Quebec • e & tº gº tº tº e º 78.5 © tº º 79.6 Ontario e - e. • . . to e & 4-7 º e > 5'4 1886. Manitoba ... tº gº tº © º º — " ... 16-8 ... 10-9 2 British Columbia ... & G G — " .... 4-8 1885. The Territories tº gº © e e ſº — 4 º e Gº 41°5 ... 17:42 Total g e o © º º - © tº e 31-0 -ºms - that province from the Dominion by giving it independence or yielding it to France. The Province of Quebec, owing to its geographical situation, commanding the lower St. Lawrence, that unequalled water-way, must belong to the power that holds Ontario. It must always be governed either from London, from Ottawa, or from Washington. This is so obvious that it seems perhaps needless to affirm it, but I do so for this reason. If it be granted that Quebec can never rule itself, or again * No figures available. * Including all French half-breeds as French. V; 1 7 HE GA’O WZTA/ OF WAE W AMA 7TWO.V.S. CAMADA 125 be ruled by France, two alternatives remain—that it shall continue a part of Canada, or be annexed to the United States. Owing to questions of religious privileges, especially in reference to education, it is likely to be the last part of the Dominion to assent to annexation. Lastly, it is now generally admitted that a Canada independent both of Great Britain and of the United States is an impossibility. It remains then that the existence of the French in Canada once again, as in the last century, tends to increase the loyalty of a British colony, and whatever difficulties may possibly occur in the future, the French-Canadians will not facilitate the annexation of Canada by the United States. The other foreign elements in Canada are, as has been shown, very small compared to what they are on the other side of the international boundary, and the more recent censuses of Manitoba and the North-West show that as yet the Germans, Dutch, Russians, Poles, Scandinavians, and Icelanders, all taken together, make up therein respectively but 15:5 and 2:6 of the white population. We come then to the very satisfactory result, that, as far as numbers can prove such a point, the population of our largest colony is more homogeneous, more solid, and (from an English point of view) better constituted than that of its great rival to the south. This should be a matter of great satisfaction when we consider how long and severe the competition between Canada and the United States must be. The Canadians are undoubtedly an energetic people; they have overcome great difficulties in the past, both political and physical, they have made progress in all directions," and never did the future of Canada appear * The Canadian Universities are admirable, and indeed their whole - educational system, - - - i 26 SZ UA)/ES WAV STA TVSTYCS CHAP. so brilliant as at this moment. Their present political difficulties are but the result of the impetuous energy of the people, and the tact of their prime minister, one of the greatest living statesmen, Sir John A. Macdonald, may be trusted to overcome the Manitoban difficulties as he has overcome many others. The adverse circumstances in Canada are mainly three —(1) the climate, (2) the geographical structure of the country, and (3) the existence of a large population speak- ing a different language. Concerning the last enough has been said above. - The climate of Canada has been much abused, but there is no doubt that it has also been much exaggerated. As regards health and the enjoyment of life, it has been amply proved to leave little to be desired ; but the com- pulsory suspension of many kinds of work for several months in each year leads to serious social and economic difficulties, while in Manitoba and the North-West the agricultural season is so short as in many years to make it difficult, in spite of the magnificent weather of the north- western summer, to get the harvests saved in good con- dition. I do not say these difficulties are insuperable, but that they are great difficulties is undeniable. At the same time, over a large area of the northern states on the other side of the international boundary the same climate holds sway, and has not proved incompatible with a degree of progress that is the wonder of the world. What I have termed the geographical difficulty is two- fold. Firstly, putting to one side all consideration for the land west of Winnipeg and north of the fiftieth parallel, a very large area of the province of Ontario and a still larger proportion of the province of Quebec has a very sterile and rocky soil, only the lowlands along the rivers being of much value. This, again, is a drawback that part W II TAZE GA’O WZTA/ OF AME W AVA 7TWO.M.S. CA WADA 127 of the state of New York and much of New England suffer from equally, and yet prosper. Seeondly, and to some extent associated with the last, the vast extent of Canada is in some ways a source of weakness, its territory lacks compactness, and its provinces are isolated by natural barriers; the barren lands of the north of New Brunswick and the Gaspé peninsula cut off the maritime provinces from Quebec ; the isolation of the latter having been gravated by the supineness of the Home Government in the matter of the Maine boundary. The “muskegs” or swamps about the Lake of the Woods separate Ontario from Manitoba; and lastly, the Rocky Mountains cut off British Columbia from Assiniboia. . These undoubted inconveniences Nature has herself to a large extent counteracted by the magnificent stream of the St. Lawrence and the great lake system, while the O' ag energy, skill, and perseverance of the Canadian people have so improved the navigation of their noble river, that the largest ocean-going steamers now discharge their cargoes at Montreal, five hundred miles above Anticosti, a thou- sand miles from the Straits of Belleisle—a feat in inland navigation without a parallel in the world. The Inter- colonial and the Canadian Pacific railways have united Ottawa with Halifax on the one hand, and Vancouver on the other ; while lastly, when the new canal and lock at the Sault St. Marie are completed, vessels of a consider- able size will be able to sail from Port Arthur on Lake Superior to Quebec without leaving British waters. These great works done by a people as yet not more numerous than the Dutch, are but a foreshadowing of the mighty part to be played by Canada in the time to come. I 28 STUDIES IN STA TVS 7/CS * chap. CHAPTER VIII. THE GROWTH of NEW NATIONs (continued). SouTH AMERICA. BRAZIL, Uruguay, and the Argentine Confederation are the three portions of South America to which there is a flow of European emigration; this may be insignificant indeed in comparison with that to the United States, but yet is far too large to be lost sight of 1. Brazil.—This fine country, the greater part of which lies within the tropics, once a dependency of Portugal, till lately an empire, now the newest of republics, is still essentially Portuguese. Under the rule of Pedro II. Brazil made great advances and did much to develop its resources. By a system of gradual emancipation it cast off the reproach of being the last slave-owning country of America. In 1850 the slaves were estimated at 2% millions; in 1872 they numbered 1,511,000; in 1886 they were estimated to be 1,133,000, and their emancipa- tion was finally completed in 1888. The emancipation of the slaves has naturally proved a stimulus to immigra- tion, but the recent revolution may not unlikely cause a temporary check. --> - The last census of Brazil was taken in 1872, and was, moreover, only a partial one, giving results of doubtful value; according to its figures (and there are no others available) we get the following results:— VIII GROWTH OF NEW NATIONS, SOUTH AMERICA 129 CENSUS OF BRAZIL, 1872.1 Per cent. Free Population 8,419,672? 84-8 Slaves tº 1,510,806 I5'2 Total ... 9,930,478 IOO"O Slaves. Natives of Brazil 1,372,246 90-8 ,, ,, other countries 138,560 9°2 Total ... 1,510,806 IOO"O Free Population. - Natives of Brazil 8,176,191 97' I ,, , other countries 243,481 2°9 Total ... 8,419,672 IOO"O Population by Race. Europeans 3,787,289 38:1 Africans 1,954,452 I9'7 Indians tº ſº gº 386,955 3’9 Mulattoes and half-breeds 3,801,782 38°3 Total ... 9,930,478 Tooro Mationality of Foreign-born. Portuguese 121,246 49'8 Germans 45,829 I8-8 Africans 44,580 18:3 French 6,108 2°5 Others © 25,718 Io'6 Total ... 243,481 IOO"O It is said that in the early days when Brazil was a dependency of Portugal, but few Portuguese women settled there ; as a result of this, the very large number of half-breeds and mulattoes should be noted. In 1872 the foreign element was very small, under 3 per cent. ; of the foreign-born one-half were natives of Portugal, one- fifth Germans; the presence of 45,000 natives of Africa shows how recently the slave-trade was actively carried on. 1 Almanach de Gotha. 2 Excluding wandering Indians, variously estimated at from 250,000 to 600,000. K I3O STUDIES IN STATISTICS CHAP. The returns of immigration for the five years 1883-7 state, that nearly 160,000 persons entered the country. The principal nationalities were as follows:— IMMIGRANTS TO BRAZIL. 5 YEARS 1883-87.1 - Per cent. Italians © º ºs 53,458 tº dº tº * tº e 33'5 Portuguese ... 47,651 tº tº e • . . . 29'9 Germans tº gº & 9,437 tº tº e e tº e 5'9 Spaniards • • 7,569 ... ... 4’7 Others tº E & 41,508 tº e e e e s “ 26°o Total tº º ſº 159,623 tº º g tº gº ºn I O O"O If these returns are at all to be trusted we may safely say, without going into figures, that the foreign element in Brazil is now much more considerable than at the time of the census, eighteen years ago; also that besides a notable addition to the Portuguese and a smaller addition to the Germans, a new element has risen to importance—the Italian. The census of Italy taken in 1881 gave the number of Italians then resident in Brazil as 82,196.” It is stated in the Statesman's Year-Book, but I do not know on what authority, that there are in South Brazil 189,000 German colonists. It should be noted that more than half the foreign-born in Brazil in 1872, and two-thirds of the recent immigrants, belong to the Latin races of Southern Europe. 2. Uruguay.—At the partial census in 1880 it ap- peared that one-third of the population was foreign-born, the remaining two-thirds being Uruguayans of mixed race. Among the foreigners Spaniards and Italians predominated, next in number being natives of the adjoining states, and then French. * Almanach de Gotha and Statesman's Year-Book. * Censimento degli Italiani all'estero, 1881. vin GROWTH OF NEW NATIONS. SOUTH AMERICA 131 CENSUS OF URUGUAY, 1880.1 : Per cent. Natives tº ſº tº • • e º º 298,023 & º e tº tº e 68 Foreign-born ... ... dº º e 140,222 & e e • • * 32 Total tº $ tº tº tº º & © tº 438,245 tº gº tº © tº º IOO Foreign-born. & * Spaniards ... • * * 39,780 tº e e tº dº sº 28-3 Italians ... º e ºs 36,303 tº gº tº e tº e 25'9 Brazilians ... © e tº 20,178 tº gº e © º ºs I4'4 Argentines . . . tº º º 15,546 ... © tº II* I French . . . . tº tº gº 14,375 tº º ſº. * tº tº Io'3 English ... tº º is 2,772 tº º e tº º tº 2"O Germans Q & & tº $ tº 2,125 © tº tº tº e is I'5 Others e tº º Q & ſº 9,143 ... * † & 6'5 Total tº º & ... 140,222 e º º * † tº IOO"O There has been a considerable immigration, mainly from Italy and Spain, during the last twenty-five years. The following table gives the immigrants, emigrants, and net migration of the port of Montevideo for the six years 1882-87. - - MONTEVIDEO. IMMIGRATION AND EMIGRATION, 1882-87.2 Immigrants. Emigrants. rººt. Italians tº tº gº 33,719 ... I5,306 • * * 18,413 Spaniards tº gº tº 17,582 tº g tº 6,752 * tº ſº 10,830 French • . . . 5,655 tº ſº tº 3,890 tº º º 1,765 Bnglish e e Q 3,211 e c tº 1,861 ... 1,350 Germans tº º tº 2,462 tº gº º I,322 tº tº tº 1,140 Others tº º º 11,364 ... , 8,700 tº º ſº 2,664 Total tº tº E. 73,993 ... 37,831 ... 36,162 Thus it will be seen, that nearly two-thirds of the foreign-born, and five-sixths of the excess of immigrants over emigrants, are of the Latin races. Uruguay is not important by the amount of its popu- lation, but it is one of the parts of South America that 1 Almanach de Gotha and Statesman's Year-Book. 2 Report of Bureau of Statistics of United States, 1888-9. 132 STUDIES IN STATISTICS CHAP. seems to be making real progress, and is interesting from our present point of view as a place of destination for Italian, Spanish, and French emigrants. It is stated that the Spaniards and French in Uruguay are chiefly Basques. According to the Italian census of 1881, there were at that time 40,003 Italians in Uruguay. 3. The Argentine Confederation. —This, formerly known as La Plata, is a republic with a very large territory, nearly the whole of which, like that of Uruguay, lies in the temperate zone; probably it is for that reason that this is of all South America the part that shows the most unmistakable signs of progress. The last census of the whole Confederation was taken in 1869, with the following result— CENSUS OF THE ARGENTINE CONFEDERATION, 1869.1 Per cent. Natives {} º ºs ſº tº e 1,665,497 tº e e tº a º 887 Foreign-born ... tº 9 tº 211,993 tº tº e tº gº ge II 3 Total tº ſº e & © tº 1,877,490 tº gº e gº tº gº IOO"O Nationality of foreign-born:- Italians tº e º $ tº º 71,442 tº dº ſº & sº gº 33-6 Spaniards ... tº tº º 34,080 * g e tº tº º I6' I French tº ºn tº * c º 32,383 * * * tº º º I5'3 English G sº e • * * 10,709 © & tº tº gº tº 5' I Swiss ... tº ſº s . . . 5,860 tº 9 º' e tº e 2.8 Germans & © e tº º is 4,997 © e tº tº º g 2'4 Others? tº e e. © tº e 52,522 tº tº º tº gº tº 24°7 Total * * g. tº sº tº 211,993 © tº e tº gº tº IOO" O By far the most populous and most important province of the Confederation is Buenos Aires, capital La Plata. This province should be carefully distinguished from the capital city of Buenos Aires, which, like Washington in the district of Columbia, forms a separate territory of the * Almanach de Gotha. * Chiefly from various American states. VIII GAO WZTH OF AWE W MA 7TWOWS, SOUTH AMERICA I 33 Republic. Of this province then a census was taken in 1881, which enables us to measure its progress since 1869. CENSUS OF THE PROVINCE OF BUENOS AIRES.1 1869. Per cent. 1881. Per cent. Argentines ... 254,205 8o'I 393,482 74°7 All others ... 63,115 I9'9 133,099 25'3 - 317,320 IOO'O 526,581 IOO"O Details of Foreign-born 3– Italians e e º 18,729 29'6 57,128 42'9 Spaniards ... 14,536 23'o 33,692 25°3 French tº º º 13,739 2 I '8 20,738 I5'6 English © º º 5,971 9'5 9,089 6-8 Germans ... 1,153 I '8 1,479 I' I Swiss tº º º 989 I '6 1,696 I'3 All others ... 7,998 12"7 9,277 7°o 63,115 IOO"O 133,099 IOO"O We see that in this one province the foreign-born have in 12 years doubled in numbers; they have also increased considerably in proportion to the whole popu- lation. The increase has occurred in all nationalities, but more especially among the Italians (who have been trebled) and the Spanish. In 1881 the three chief Latin races, Italians, Spaniards, and French, made up 84 per cent of the foreign-born, and one-fifth of the whole population. According to the Italian census of 1881, there were then 254,388 Italians resident in the Argentine Con- federation. x The population of the federal capital, Buenos Aires, has been ascertained at various periods. 1855 tº º º tº º e 91,548 }º in Censo General de la Provincia 1869 tº º ºs ... 177,787 de Buenos Aires, 1881. 1887 tº º tº ... 404,1732 Censo Municipal de Buenos Aires, 1887. 1 Censo General de la Provincia de Buenos Aires, 1881. * “Antiguo Municipio.” I 34 STUDIES I/V STATZS 77CS CHAP. From these figures it will be seen that Buenos Aires differs from Washington in that it is one of the quickest- growing cities of the world; a table on page 6 of vol. ii. of the Censo Municipal shows that its growth in the last 18 years, 7.3 per cent. per annum, exceeds that of Chicago and the other great cities of America. The great foreign immigration began in 1854; its effect is very clearly seen in the birth-places of the inhabitants. CITY OF BUENOS AIRES.1 BIRTH-PLACES. 1869. Per cent. 1887. Per Cent. Argentines ... 94,968 ... 507 ... 204,734 ... 47".2 Foreign-born ... 92,158 ... 49.3 ... 228,641 ... 52.8 187,126 ... Ioo'o ... 433,375 ... Ioo'o While the Argentine population increased in 18 years by 116 per cent, the foreign-born population increased by 148 per cent. Another table of the census shows us that the pro- portion of females to males among the foreign-born has improved considerably during the same period. POPULATION BY SEX. CITY OF BUENOS AIRES. To each 100 males, there were females 1869. Among Argentines tº ſº tº tº º tº 139 © º e tº º º 116 , Foreign-born ... tº e º 45 • * * © e - 54 BIRTH-PLACES. CITY OF BUENOS AIRES, 1887. Per cent. Natives of Argentine ... tº e e 47-3 39 Italy ... e - e. tº e. g. 31.9 35 Spain... * @ 9 º dº tº 9.1 95 France • * g. e e tº 4-6 3 y Other Countries tº gº tº 7-1 Chiefly South Americans. 100.0 * “Actual Municipio.” (including “partidos”). VIII GRO WZTH OF NEW NATIONS. , SOUTH AMERICA 135 FOREIGN-BORN. CITY OF BUENOS AIRES. Increase in 18 years. 1869. 1887. Absolute. Per cent. Italians ... 44,233 ... 138,166 ... 93,933 ... 212 Spaniards ... 14,609 ... 39,562 ... 24,953 ... 171 French ... 14,180 © e e 20,031 * c & 5,851 ... 41 English ... 3,174 ... 4, 160 ... 986 ... 31 Germans ... 2,070 ... 3,900 ... I,83o ... 88 Swiss tº e G 1,401 ... 2,582 ... I, I81 ... 84 Austrians ... 544 ... 2,127 ... I,583 ... 291 Portuguese ... 798 ... 1,057 ... 259 . . . 32 We learn also from the same census some interesting details as to these foreign-born. Thus, of the children in the capital of school-age (6–14 years) there were Argentines 40 tº º tº º º © tº º 78 per cent. Foreign-born ... e e e tº tº e 22 99 Then, again, of the persons of eight years of age and upwards, the proportion who could read and write was as follows— CITY OF BUENOS AIRES. PERCENTAGE OF PERSONS ABOVE EIGHT YEARS OF A GE ABLE TO READ AND WRITE, 1887. Males. Females. Total, Germans tº tº dº 100 tº gº o 100 & © e 100 English tº e e 100 s & e 100 e e - 100 French © tº º 91 tº e e 84 tº º º 88 Argentines ... 87 ſº º e 81 g tº º 83 Spaniards ... 87 tº gº gº 63 © a º 79 Italians © tº e 64 sº tº e 54 g tº e 61 Other nationalities 80 e tº º 75 tº g tº 78 The unexpectedly favourable position occupied by the English should be highly flattering to our educational reformers. It promises well for the Republic that the Argentines appear to be better educated than the Italians and Spaniards. In the eight years ending with 1878 the net immigra- tion into the Argentine Republic amounted to 223,200; 136 STUD/ES IN STA 7TWSTWCS CHAP. in the eight years ending with 1886 it had increased to 411,066. The following table shows the nationalities of the immigrants who landed at the port of Buenos Aires in the ten years ending with 1888.” NATIONALITIES OF IMMIGRANTS WHO LANDED AT BUENOS AIRES INURING THE TEN YEARS 1879–1888. Per cent. Italians © & © * & © 409,306 gº º º ... 67'4 Spaniards ... tº e. e. 80,695 © tº e ... I 3'3 French © º º & e º 53,890 * * * tº a tº 8-9 Austrians ... * * tº 14,020 - º º º, º º 2'3 Germans tº º tº * c & 10,855 © e e tº a tº I-8 Swiss ... e tº e tº e - 10,805 e e e tº e & I '8 English * @ e * * * 10,508 & e e e - tº I'7 Belgians tº e º * e - 6,067 - * * • * * I "O Others e e e & e - 11,170 tº e e tº e e I '8 Total º e e 607,316 © tº a . . . IOO"O It will be seen that the Italians form two-thirds of the whole number, the Spaniards and French being the next most numerous, these three nationalities together constituting nearly nine-tenths of the immigrants. The migration from Italy has increased greatly in the last four years, but proportionately the increase in the case of France, Spain, and Belgium has been still more marked. From the facts quoted, it is plain that an extensive movement from Southern Europe to South America is taking place, and it seems likely that the future of the latter continent will lie in the hands of the Latin races. * Reports of the Bureau of Statistics of the United States ; also Almanach de Gotha. IX GRO WZ7 H OF AWE W WA 7TWONS. SOUTH A FRICA I 37 CHAPTER IX. THE GROWTH OF NEW NATIONs (continued). SouTH AFRICA AND AUSTRALASIA. THERE is so little statistical information in reference to the Cape Colony and Natal, that it is not worth while discussing the matter at much length. The last census of the Cape Colony was taken in 1875, with the following results" — CENSUS OF CAPE COLONY PROPER, 1875. Per cent. European population ... tº ſº; ºn tº ºf e 236,783 tº dº ſº 32-8 Native population tº º ſº º ºg * & © 484,201 tº º º 67.2 Total ... tº e e © tº ºt tº º ſº 720,984 tº ſº º IOO"O JEuropean Population. --- Natives of the Colony ... * G tº tº º º 203,463 & ſº º 85-9 ,, , Great Britain e is tº tº º e 22,000 e e ſº 9°3 ,, , Germany ... e tº is tº º e 4,685 tº ſº º 2"O ,, , Holland ... tº e & & s e 883 tº tº º "4 ,, ,, Other Countries ... * * > 5,752 tº º ºs 2°4 Total ... tº º Le tº gº tº & ſº gº 236,783 tº ſº e IOO"O Native Population. * Raffirs and Bechuanas... tº º ſº tº e ºs 214,133 © tº º 44'2 Hottentots • . . tº º te tº tº ſº; tº tº º 98,561 tº º (º 2O'4 Fingoes tº º º tº a º gº tº º tº e ſº 73,506 º tº ſº I5'2 Malays ... tº º º ... ... tº º is 10,817 * † de 2" 2 Mixed and others tº tº e ... ... 87,184 tº º ve I8°o Total ... tº gº tº § tº ſº tº e º 484,201 * > * > * IOO"O 1 Statesman's Year-Book. 138 STUDIES IN STA TISTICS CHAP." The native whites are chiefly the descendants of Dutch, German, and French settlers,” so that not only are the blacks twice as numerous as the whites, but among the latter the Dutch largely outnumber the English. The estimated populations of the dependencies of the Cape Colony were as follows in 1885 *:— Europeans. Other. Total. Griqualand West (1881) 16,927 tº e e 32,174 tº º º 49,101 Transkei ... © º ºs 820 ... 118,732 tº Q & II9,552 Griqualand East ... 3,066 tº tº º 93,114 tº e & 96,180 Tembuland e - e 8,320 tº e d 114,318 tº e º 122,638 Total e tº e 29,133 tº t e 358,338 & e e 387,471 Per cent. ... 7' 5 92°5 IOO"O In these territories it will be seen that the whites are in a very small minority. Bechuanaland, Pondoland, and Basutoland are estimated to contain a population of 846,000, of whom probably but a few hundreds are whites. It may be incidentally remarked, that in the Orange Free State the census of 1880 gave a total population of 133,518, of whom 61,022, or 457 per cent., were whites, and 72,496, or 54.3 per cent., natives. - Natal.—The population in 1886 was returned as follows”:— Per cent. Europeans & © e 37,437 • * * 8' 5 Raffirs ... ... 374,915 ... 84-6 Coolies ... tº & C 30,345 © tº tº 6'9 - 442,697 ... I OO"O Emigration to South Africa is not so active as might be wished. Several causes—the numerous native wars, * The descendants of the Huguenots who settled at the Cape in the 17th century have long lost their language, and speak “Cape Dutch.” See Problems of Greater Britain, by Sir Chas. W. Dilke, 1890. * Statesman's Year-Book. 3 Ibid. IX GROWTH OF AWE W AVA TVOAVS. SOUTH A FRICA I39 the preponderance of Dutch in the white population, the ample supply of black labour, the great cost of the passage (until recently even greater than to our Australian colonies I)—have contributed to this result. But more than all these the vacillating policy of the Home Government, culminating in the surrender of the Transvaal after the disaster of Majuba Hill, has destroyed our prestige, and caused a general feeling of uncertainty and insecurity. The Board of Trade Returns give the following figures:— EMIGRATION 1 FROM GREAT BRITAIN AND IRELAND TO THE CAPE OF GOOD HOPE AND NATAL. SEVEN YEARS, 1882-88. Emigrants. Immigrants. Net Emigration. Natives of Great Britain and Ireland tº e º } 40,299 ... 32,855 ... 7,444 Foreigners ... © tº e 6,709 ... 5,18o ... 1,529 Total ... © º 47,008 ... 38,035 ... 8,973 In 1883, '84, and '85 the immigrants exceeded the emigrants, and the net result for seven years 1882-88, viz. 8,973,” was very trifling. Unless the amount of emigration and, what is more important, permanent settlement be very largely increased, and that soon, the “Dutch diffi- culty’ and the “Kaffir difficulty” are likely to endure, and not improbably lead to serious troubles in the near future. The emigrants of British origin were divided as follows:— * This table is constructed from the point of view of Great Britain; of course what we term “emigrants” are at Cape Town “immigrants.” * The net emigration from Great Britain and Ireland to the Cape in 1889 amounted to 9,966, as against 3,599 in 1888, and 2,034 in 1887. The great majority of the emigrants were Englishmen.—Board of Trade Return on Emigration and Immigration, 1889. I4O STUDIES IN STA TYS 77CS CHAP. Per cent. English ... tº ſº tº 35,688 * G º 88.5 Scotch ... tº e e 3,702 * e e 9'2 Irish tº e tº tº º º 909 tº º º 2'3 Total ... tº e ºs 40,299 tº ſº º IOO"O These proportions at any rate are satisfactory, and give no indication of an “Irish difficulty" being added to the others. Insularity and ignorance in Downing Street seem to have made South Africa a plaything, and have much to answer for. It is very doubtful whether, under the peculiar circumstances of the case, it was wise to give self-govern- ment to the Cape Colony in 1872. The annexation of the Transvaal in 1877 may have been unwise; but folly assuredly culminated in the surrender of the Trans- vaal in 1881, an act that has shaken British prestige throughout the land to an extent that it will take years to recover from ; but a certain class of our legislators do not seem to understand what prestige is, and its vital import- ance as a factor in dealing with inferior races. The recent discovery of valuable gold-fields in the Transvaal, and the consequent rush of immigrants, emphasizes in an unex- pected manner the singular ineptitude of the surrender." Should, however, these gold-fields hold their own, the predominance of English among the diggers, and the approach of railways on all sides, foreshadow possible changes, as a result of which once again the Union Jack may float over Pretoria. The charter wisely given to the South African Company opens another vista of great possibilities. 1 Sir Frederick Young, K.C.M.G. (A Winter Tour in South Africa : Pethrick and Co., 1890), calls attention to the serious results of the absence of municipal government in Johannesburg and other Transvaal towns, and contrasts their condition with that of the towns in Natal. IX. GROWTH OF ANE W NATIONS. A USTRALASIA 141 AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND. Fifty years ago the population of Australia and Van Diemen's Land was under 80,000," and New Zealand had not been colonized; that is to say, a continent exceeding that of Europe in area comprised a white population about equal to that of Wolverhampton at the present day. South Australia was colonized in 1836, New Zealand in 1840; Victoria was separated from New South Wales in 1851, and Queensland in 1859. At the census of 1881 the continent of Australia was found to contain 2,134,489 inhabitants, Tasmania 115,705, and New Zealand 489,933, making a grand total of 2,740,127 (excluding aborigines), or, if we also exclude Chinese, Polynesians, Malays, and other coolies, about 2,690,000 persons of European races; i. e. a population larger than that of Paris, considerably larger than that of Norway, Denmark, or Greece, and equal to that of Switzerland; sufficiently large, at all events, to completely disturb the “balance of power” in the South Pacific. It cannot be other than a source of the greatest satisfaction to Englishmen, that 95 per cent. of these people are essentially British, having been born either in the colonies or in the old country. - A census was taken in 1886 in Queensland, and also in New Zealand; these showed an increase in the white population in five years of 109,328 and 88,549 respec- tively, or a total increase of very nearly 200,000 for these two colonies alone. The growth of Australia from the establishment of the first penal settlements at Botany Bay, New South Wales, towards the end of the last century, and in Van Diemen's 1 Census, 1831. I42 STUDIES IN STATISTICS CHAP. Land in 1804, to the present time is unexampled. When America was settled, difficulties of locomotion by sea and land made any such rapid progress towards settlement quite impracticable. - Where less than a century ago Savages of a very low type reigned not only supreme, but absolutely without competitors, there are now a number of provinces enjoying all the advantages of the military power and the prestige of an old and powerful country, while at the same time, so far as domestic affairs are concerned, they have all the privileges of free states. New South Wales and Victoria are the most completely organized, have the largest populations (now exceeding a million in each colony), the largest revenue and expenditure, and the largest debts; Queensland is in process of rapid development, and has a great future before it; in South Australia progress has been less rapid, but doubtless its time will come ; Western Australia is but just emerging from the embryonic stage, yet it offers a magnificent field for emigration; Tasmania has less capacity than the other colonies, but its progress, if less startling than that of some of them, has been steady. - New Zealand has shown a most extraordinary rate of progress. In 1861 its white population was under 100,000; the recent census (1886) showed it to be 578,482; its revenue (in 1885) amounted to 33 millions, but its ex- penditure exceeded that amount by # a million, so that it is not surprising that, with a smaller population, and much smaller territory, it has a debt practically equal to that of New South Wales. Nevertheless, if only its finances be kept in prudent hands, there is no reason why its credit should not soon stand as high as it once did. Whatever may happen in the future, whether the process of disintegration or federation prove the stronger, IX GROWTH OF NEW WATIONS. AUSTRALAS/A I43 there is scarcely room for doubt that the dominant power of the South Pacific will be British, even if not in name and allegiance, at any rate in race and language. POPULATION OF AUSTRALASIA (EXCLUDING ABORIGINES) AT WARIOUS PERIODS.1 The figures, unless otherwise stated, are taken from the various census reports. 1821. 1831. 1841. 1851. 1861. 1871. 1881. - I. II. III. IV. W. WI. VII. Queensland ... 130,856 | 8,575 30,059| 120,104| 213,525 New South Wales | 29,783|60,861 3. 178,668 350,860 502,998| 749,825 Victoria ... 11,738| 77,345, 538,628| 730, 198| 861,566 South Australia cº-º * 17,366 63,700 126,830, 185,626| 279,865 Western Australia — (?) 500 (?) 2,000 4,622 14,837| 24,785| 29,708 Tasmania ... 6,480|16,954|| 50,216| 70,130| 89,977| 99,328. 115,705 New Zealand — | – | (?) 1,000 26,707| 99,021. 256,393 489,933 Total 36,263|78,316| 213, 176| 429,7471,250,212|I,919,432|2,740, 127 * Notes on this table, mainly from the Statesman's Year-Book, 1888. New South Wales.—First penal settlement in 1788. In the next year the population was 1030, in 1810 it was 8,293. The first con- stitution was established in 1843. The number given in column II is that of the census of 1833. - Victoria.-Formerly Port Philip, settled in 1835; in the next year it contained 224 persons; separated from New South Wales in 1851. Queensland.—Formerly Moreton Bay, settled by convicts in 1825; the census of 1846 gave it a population of 2,257. It was separated from New South Wales in 1859. At the census of 1886 the population amounted to 322,853. Tasmania.-Formerly Van Diemen's Land, the first penal settlement was established in 1804; a dependency of New South Wales till 1825. The number in col. I is from Stanford's Compendium of Geography, Australasia, 3rd edition, p. 248 ; that in col. II from the Statesman's Year-Book, 1866; that in col. III from the census of 1842; that in column VI from the census of 1870. South Australia.-Colonized in 1836. The number in col. III is from the census of 1844. - Western Australia.-Settled in 1829. The figures in columns IV, V, and VI are from the censuses of 1848, 1859, and 1870 respectively. New Zealand.—Colonized in 1840. The number in col. IV is from the Statesman's Year-Book. At the census of 1886 the population amounted. to 578,482. I 44 STUDYES IN STATISTYCS CHAP. According to the statistics published by the Govern- ment statist for Victoria, it would appear, on the average of the eight years 1881-88, that the Australasian colonies collectively increase each year—(1) through excess of births over deaths by 65,000, and (2) through excess of immigrants over emigrants by 66,000, giving a total annual growth of 131,000. Particulars of this growth are given in Table H, from which we learn that New South Wales is now growing much more rapidly than Victoria, also that immigration into Queensland is very active. The Polynesian coolie immigration fluctuates extremely, - from several thousands in the year to nothing ; Chinese immigration has ceased. The loss of South Australia by emigration is due to a prolonged period of depres- sion ; probably most of the emigrants have gone into other Australasian colonies. The experience of the last census showed that the official estimates of population founded upon the excess of births over deaths, and of immigrants over emigrants, gave results that were not realized by actual enumeration. Probably the emigrants are not all recorded, or the deaths, or both. We must therefore consider that the figures in the table somewhat overstate the real facts. In the case of Queensland, however, the estimate was very close, especially as the periods do not quite correspond, thus:— INCREASE OF QUEENSLAND IN THE FIVE YEARS 1881-85.1 By excess of births ... tº gº tº tº º ºs tº gº tº 23,248 By excess of immigrants tº e º tº e e * * g 88,614 Total estimated increase ... ... 111,862 Census Population, May 1, 1886 ... ... 322,853 2 3 9 3 April 3, 1881 ... ... 213,525 Actual increase in 5 years ... ... 109,328 Difference ... © º º tº e e 2,534 or 2.3 per cent. * Report on Australasian Statistics by the Government Statist qf Victoria, and Census Reports. IX GROWTH OF WE W NATIONS. A USTRA LASIA 145 In New Zealand the estimate was less satisfactory, thus:— - - INCREASE OF NEW ZEALAND IN THE FIVE YEARS 1881-85.1 By excess of births ... ... e Q ſº tº e C 67,408 By excess of immigrants e e ſº tº ſº wº & Q wº 28,959 Total estimated increase... 96,367 [ _ _º Census population (whites), 1886 ... ... 578,482 99 3 y ,, 1881 ... ... 489,933 Actual increase in 5 years 88,549 Y Difference ... & ſº tº º º 7,818, or 8.8 per cent. TABLE H.—AVERAGE ANNUAL INCREASE OF THE AUSTRALASIAN COLONIES. FOR THE EIGHT YEARS 1881-88.” #: ;...] Totalestimated deaths. emigrants. 1I]CI'êal Se. New South Wales ... 20,308 27,562 47,870 Victoria © º c e - e. 15,572 18,436 34, oo& Queensland ... tº gº tº 5,915 16,199 22, II.4. New Zealand tº o o 13,346 2,728. I6,074 South Australia ... 6,940 — 1,047 3 5,893 Tasmania . ... tº ſº ſº 2,452 1,402 3,854 Western Australia ... 637 961 I,598 Total ... tº ſº tº 65,170 66,241 I3 I,4II The quality of the population of Australasia is no less satisfactory than its rapid growth. (See Table J.) Of all our colonies Australia is most nearly a reproduction of the mother-country. In both Australia and New Zealand the proportion of foreigners is insignificant. In Australia the aborigines are few by comparison, and rapidly dying 1 Report on Australasian Statistics by the Government Statist of Victoria, and Census Reports. * Report on Australasian Statistics by the Government Statist of Victoria. * Excess of emigrants. 146, STUDIES IN STATISTICS chap. out (the last Tasmanian died twelve years ago), while in New Zealand the “Maori" difficulty seems to be at an end, and even Lord Macaulay, were he now alive, would scarcely be likely to prophesy great things of the New Zealander of to-day. ... In Table K are given the pro- portions of natives of Scotland and Ireland to the natives of England and Wales in several countries; it will at once be seen that the Irish, though relatively twice as numerous in Australasia as in the United Kingdom, have a far less predominance than in Canada, a fortiori than in the United States, where they are in proportion to English- born people twice as numerous as in Canada. The Scotch, like the Irish, are more enterprising than the English in pushing their fortunes into remote parts of the world," and New Zealand seems to have especial attractions for them, though it is not quite such a favoured colony as Canada. But enterprise is not the sole reason that sends the Scot abroad; like the Irishman, he has to admit that his country is poor in natural resources, and if he does not find an opening in England (there were a quarter of a million natives of Scotland in England and Wales at the last census), is apt to go far afield in search of one. - : - A point to be noted in Table J is the disparity of the sexes. This, as might have been expected, is but trifling among the natives of Australasia, but is consider- able among the natives of England and Scotland, and indeed among the natives of every country except Ireland. * For each 1000 English and Welsh in the United Kingdom in 1881 there were 7 in Canada, 20 in Australasia, and 30 in the United States. For each 1000 Scotch in the United Kingdom there were 31 in Canada, 41 in Australasia, and 46 in the United States. Similarly for each 1000 Irish there were 32 in Canada, 45 in Australasia, and 317 in the United States. - º: § TABLE J.—BIRTH-PLACES OF THE INHABITANTS OF AUSTRALIA, TASMANIA, AND NEW ZEALAND AT THE CENSUS OF 1881. Australia and Tasmania." New Zealand.” º Total Males. Females. Persons. * Males. Females. | Persons. i. Auºia e Persons. JNatives of Australasia ... 714,403 || 710,240 | 1,424,643 | 63-3 || 121,192 | 119,489 240,681 492 || 1,665,324 England and Wales 229,017 | 149,718 || 378,735 | 16.8 70,704 || 50,483 | 121,187 24-7 || 499,922 Scotland tº tº 56,656 41,618 98,274 4.4 31,005 || 21,748 52,753 Io:8 || 151,027 Ireland - * * 106,542 106,091 212,633 9.4| 27,666 21,697 49,363 Io. 1 || 261,996 Other British Possessions 7,196 3,434 Io,630 '5 2,429 1,585 4,OIA. '8 14,644 United States 4,017 1,416 5,433 *2 637 204 841 "2 6,274 Germany 24, 161 13,223 37,384 I-7 3,188 1,631 4,819 I "O 42,203 Denmark º 3,617 1,125 4,742 *2 1,409 790 2, IQ9 4 6,941 Sweden and Norway 4,594 454 5,048 ‘2 | 1,872 663 2,535 5 7,583 France tº º º 2,770 783 3,553 *2 614 234 848 "2 4,401 Switzerland ... 2,044 364 2,408 "I 269 63 332 • I 2,740 Italy... 1,720 160 1,88o * I 385 98 483 I 2,363 China & 38,241 156 38,397 I '7 5,017 16 5,033 I'O 43,430 Other countries - - - 12,288 1,766 I4,o 54 •6 1,950 737 2,687 5 16,741 Not specified and at sea 7,322 5,058 I 2,380 -6 || 1,268 890 2, 158 4 14,538 Total 1,214,588 | 1,035,606 || 2,250,194 | Ioo'o ||269,605 |220,328 || 489,933 Ioo'o 2,740,127 Aboriginess 17,560 || 14,140 31,700 | 1.4 || 24,368 || 19,729 44,097 || 83 l 75,797 1 The facts are chiefly tak are taken from the censuses of the several colonies. * The numbers for Australia are chiefly estimates, and very defective. The percentages of the Aborigines are calculated on the total, including them. en from a table in the Census of Victoria, 1881, General Report, p. 47, but some details * From the Census of New Zealand, 1881, p. 191. There are no Aborigines in Tasmania. 148 STUD/ES MAV SZ.4 TVS ZYCS CHAP TABLE K.—PROPORTION OF NATIVES OF SCOTLAND AND NATIVES OF IRELAND TO 100 NATIVES OF ENGLAND AND WALES IN 1880 AND 1881. Natives of Scotland. Natives of Ireland. In United Kingdom ... ... 14-7 || In United Kingdom ... ... 23-4 ,, United States... ... 22-8 ,, New Zealand ... ... 40-7 ,, Australia " ... ... 259 ,, Australia " ... ... 56°l ,, New Zealand... ... 43.5 ,, Canada ... ... ... 109°4 ,, Canada ... ... ... 679 , United States ... ... 248-6 As we saw in treating of the United States, it is remark– able that the Irish do not leave their women behind them when they emigrate; either the women are less averse to emigration than those of other countries, or, what seems suggested by the facts, the ties of family are stronger. The figures given in the Board of Trade Returns of Emigration are very striking. It appears that, taking the ten years 1878–1887, for every 100 adult Englishmen that emi- grated 53 adult English women left these shores; for every 100 Scotchmen 55 Scotch women; but for every 100 adult Irishmen as many as 95 adult Irish women. The pro- portion of children to total emigrants was as follows— English, 19-2 Scotch, 22-2 Irish, 13.5 per cent. In Australia and New Zealand there is a decided de- ficiency of women; for every 100 males there are in the former continent but 85 females, and in New Zealand but 82. In Canada the disproportion is not so great, yet there is a total deficiency of 53,000 women. The deficiency is greatest in Manitoba and British Columbia, amounting together to 18,000. It seems a great pity that more cannot be done to remove our surplus women to countries where there is a demand for them. * Among the Australian colonies the English-born are most numerous in Western Australia and South Australia, the Scotch in Victoria and Queensland, the Irish in Queensland and Victoria. NATIVESTOTENSTAND scortanti-Tretºld ENUMERATED IN VARIOUS COUNTRIES AT THE census of 188 O-8 1. ALSO PERSONS OF FR EN CH ORIGIN IN CANADA, ALSO NATIVES OF GERMANY AND"MEN OF. COLOUR” IN THE UNITED STATES. Absolute numbers 20000 to each small square. Percentages measured vertically each division gives 2 per cent. º #3 UNITED KINGDOM. # UNITED STATES. § i PER CENTAGE 100 90 80 70 GO % 50+% O - - Millions 0 2 50 30 2O IO NATIVES OF ENGLAND&Z SCOTLANDS IRELANDS GERMANYL-D OF FRENCH ORIGINA MEN OF COLOUR [º O IX GROWTH OF WEW WA 7TWOWS. A US 7 RAMAS/A I49 Mr. Ravenstein" has called attention to the interesting fact that, although men are more prone to ultra-migration than women, on the other hand, women are more addicted than men to that form of intra-migration which he terms “short distance migration.” holds good in most countries. Moreover, he finds that this TABLE L.—NATIVES OF THE UNITED KINGDOM, 1880-81. United States. United K. Canada. Australasia. Total. Per Per Per Per Per 1881. cent. 1881. cent. 1881. Cent. 1880. cent. - cent. * 25,017,027 72.5|169,504 36°o 499,922. 54.8 745,978] 26:926,432,431 68-3 Scotch 3,673,615 to:6||115,062. 24.5|151,027| 16.5| 170,135| 6’1| 4,109,840. Io:6 Irish 5,843,406 16:9||185,526. 39'5|261,996 28-7|1,854,571. 67'o. 8,145,499. 21.1 United K. 34,534,048|Ioo'o. 470,092 Ioo'o. 912,945|Ioo'o. 2,770,685 roo'o 38,687,770 IOO“O It is not possible to number accurately the people of British and Irish stock now living in the world, but in Table L are given the numbers of natives of the British Islands in the principal English-speaking countries, as enumerated at the last After the United Kingdom there are most of these in the United States, then in Australasia, Canada coming last. - Some of these facts are exhibited in the diagram (Plate XIV.), which shows by various colours the number and percentage of the natives of England, Scotland, and Ireland in the United Kingdom, New Zealand, Australia, Canada, and the United States respectively; also the persons of French origin in Canada, and the “men of colour” and natives of Germany in the United States. The uncoloured spaces represent in the case of the United Kingdom British subjects born abroad, colonial-born living in the United Kingdom, and foreigners of various CôIDSUIS. 1 The Laws of Migration, by E. G. Ravenstein, F.R.G.S., Journal of Royal Statistical Society, vol. lii. (1889) pp. 249, 253, &c. - I5o * STUDIES IN STATISTICS CHAP. nationalities. It will be noted, that the total number of persons living in the United Kingdom in 1881, but not born in it, is much smaller than might be expected; it has no doubt increased since the last census, but the fact that an enormous majority of the total foreign population has settled in London makes it unduly obvious to Londoners, and hence leads them to exaggerate its im- portance. The uncoloured spaces in the case of the colonies represent mainly persons of British and Irish stock; in the case of the United States also persons of British and Irish stock (the latter largely preponderating), but mixed with them a large white population recruited from every country of Europe—Germans and Scandinavians being by far the most numerous. The diagram incidentally shows the difference in character of a new country like New Zealand principally peopled by recent emigration and a more settled country like Canada. It also shows very clearly the immense total population of the United States as well as the fearful incubus of the negroes of the South. The number of persons of African race in Canada would be represented by one small square. Looking at this migration question from the point of view of the British Empire, it is important to bear in mind that the centre of gravity of that empire is slowly shifting. The populations of our great self-governing colonies in North America and Australasia increase much more rapidly than that of the mother-country; so that if the population of the United Kingdom at each census be taken as 100, it will be seen that the united populations of British North America and Australasia, which in 1841 corresponded to 7, in 1881 corresponded to 21. Ix GROWTH OF NEW NATIONS. AUSTRALASIA I5 I PROPORTION BORNE By POPULATION OF NoFTH AMERICAN AND AUSTRALASIAN COLONIES TO THAT OF MOTHER COUNTRY. Census. United Kingdom. Colonies. 1841, ... ... 100 ... ... 7 1851 tº e e • . . 100 - * * * - e. 11 1861 g: º a tº º º 100 to º º tº º e 16 1871 tº t tº tº e e 100 ... * * * 18 1881 tº º ve e e c 100 - tº e ... , 21 It may fairly be assumed that this disparity will still further decrease, and the question is now exercising the minds of many of our ablest public men of both political parties, whether it will be possible much longer for our so-called Imperial Parliament, which represents only the inhabitants of the United Kingdom, to direct alone the destinies of our wide-reaching empire. The alternative vaguely shadowed forth is, that imperial defence, peace and war, postage, and other matters which interest all the empire alike, should be dealt with by some body on which the various colonies should be represented, the local administration of Great Britain and the various colonies remaining untouched in the hands of the local parliaments. This grand conception, which appears to be steadily gain- ing ground, is termed Imperial Federation. Without discussing either the advantages or difficulties of any suggested scheme, I will merely add, as it appears to be germane to my present subject, that the composition of such a Federal Parliament would be—on the basis of one member for every 100,000 of white population as enumer ated at the census of 1881—somewhat as follows:— f52 - STUDIES IN STA 77S77CS CHAP. IMPERIAL FEDERAL PARLIAMENT. Members. Per cent. England and Wales e e º o e o 260 tº º º tº e tº 61 Scotland ... e e Q tº C & ... • 37 e - e. & © e 9 Ireland ... tº dº tº g º & tº º º 52 tº ſº º tº e º I 2 Canada ... tº e º • * > tº º e 42 Newfoundland 2 | IO West Indies I Cape of Good Hope 3 } I Natal tº a tº l © ºn New South Wales 8 Victoria ... tº s º 9 South Australia ... 3 > 6 Queensland 2 Western Australia l Tasmania 1 J New Zealand 5 I Total 27 IOO The distribution of power in the present House of Commons is as follows:— Per cent. England and Wales 495 tº e e 74 Scotland tº gº e 72 * * * II Ireland º º e 103 tº 9 º' I5 670 Too It will be seen that in the suggested body the English members would still command a majority. India would have to be dealt with specially; probably a few members might be nominated by the Council to represent Indian interests; in any case it could not be represented on a basis of population. In concluding this long review of the growth of new nations, I shall say but few words. We have seen that a strong tide of migrants flows from Germany, Ireland, Great Britain, and the Scandinavian countries to the great North American Republic, and that the main stream IX GROWTH OF WE W WATIONS. A USTRA/LAS/A I 53 is joined by a tributary rivulet of greater or less volume from nearly every country of Europe. We have also traced a weaker but a rising tide flowing from Italy and Spain to Brazil, Montevideo, and Buenos Aires, the stream to Brazil being joined by a goodly river from Portugal, those to Uruguay and the Argentine Republic by small streams from France. There are yet two other tides both flowing from the British Islands, one to the Dominion of Canada, and the other to the great islands of the South Pacific, a relatively large number of Irish and Scotch going by the former, of English by the latter. We have also looked into the composition of the new nations built up as the result of these tides. In the United States we found a people largely British in origin, but comprising in its northern portions at least 5 millions of Germans and nearly 5 millions of Irish, with over half a million of Scandinavians, and a like number of French ; but sadly hampered in the south by 6% millions of “men of colour.” We found, moreover, that these various elements do not mix readily, and saw reason to believe that trouble might consequently arise in the more or less distant future. In Canada we found a people one-third French; quiet, plodding, exclusive, wishing to be let alone, and though not mixing with the British, seemingly not anxious to pass under either French or American rule. The other two-thirds of the people of the Dominion we found to be vigorous and homogeneous, with a large proportion of Scotch, and as yet fortunately with but small foreign admixture. In South Africa we found a state of affairs as yet unsettled—the British colonies containing a majority of blacks, and of the few whites a majority of Dutch extraction and Dutch in sympathy. I 54 STUDIES AV STA 7TWSTICS CHAP. In Australia and New Zealand we found rapidly growing populations of a thoroughly British type. The Irish fewer in proportion than in North America, and but few foreigners. The native troubles seemed to be at an end, and the “Chinese difficulty” not as yet serious. Germans we found everywhere, but only in large proportion in the United States, though even there not strong enough to dominate the British element. The emigration from Sweden, Norway, and Denmark we noted as not only large in itself, but bearing an exceptionally large ratio to the natural increase of those countries. Moreover, the settlers were found congregated together in one restricted portion of the United States. The movement of the Latin races, especially the Italians, appeared to be of increasing importance, and pointed to the possible predominance of Italy in South America in the next century. Finally we attributed this mighty movement of modern peoples to two causes—(1) a redundancy of population in Europe pressing closely upon the means of subsistence; (2) vast areas of virgin soil of great fertility, much of it lying under a temperate climate, brought almost suddenly within reach by the railroad and the steamship. The lessons to be learned from the long array of facts Seem to me to be as follows:— 1. The stream of migration should not be checked (save perhaps where it flows into London), but rather encouraged to flow on. 2. Where practicable the flow of British emigrants should be directed to British soil, especially to Canada and to South Africa. 3. Our colonies should not artificially stimulate the migration of foreigners to their shores. IX GROWTH OF WE W WATIONS. A USTRALASIA I 55 4. All legitimate means should be adopted to encourage the use of the English language by subjects of the English crown, and by citizens of the United States. The valour and determination of our ancestors have placed under the guidance of Englishmen this great move- ment in at least three continents; what they accomplished by the arts of war, let not Britain fail to maintain by the arts of peace; nay more, let her insist, peacefully if possible, but by force of arms if need be, that she means to carry out her trust to the end. 156 STUDIES IN STATISTICS CHAP, CHAPTER X. THE GROWTH OF MODERN CITIES. AMONGST the results of modern civilization the tendency of people to flock into cities is one of the most striking. It is observed alike in old countries with increasing popu- lations such as England and Germany; in a country with a stationary population like France; in a new but populous country like the United States; but perhaps most strikingly of all in very newly settled countries with small populations, such as Victoria, New South Wales, Canada, and even Manitoba, one of the very newest." The causes of this are manifold—on the one hand the application of machinery to agriculture has diminished the demand for agricultural labourers, and at the same time the increased use of meat as an article of diet has greatly augmented stock-farming, which requires few hands; on the other hand, the applica- tions of machinery and steam have led to an unexampled development of manufacturing industries attracting labour from all parts to the chief centres of industry, the migra- tion of the labourers being stimulated by education and the newspaper press, and immensely facilitated by improved means of communication. * For facts proving this to be the case in Germany, Holland, Austria, Hungary, Sweden, France, and Italy, see Mr. E. G. Ravenstein's valuable paper on “The Laws of Migration,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, vol. lii. (1889) p. 241. X 7AE GROWTH OF MOZ) ERAV CAE 7/ES. 157 Commencing with some of the youngest countries. In 1870 the woods and prairies of the far north-west of Canada passed from the rule of the “Governor and Company of Adventurers of England trading into Hudson's Bay,” under the sway of the Government at Ottawa—exactly 200 years after the grant of the charter to the company by Charles II. At the census of 1870 the population of the new province of Manitoba was but 12,228, half of them Indians, and Winnipeg, its present capital, but a village of 241 inhabitants. In 1881 the population of the province was 65,954, of the capital 7,985. At the census of 1886 the population of Manitoba was 108,640, and that of Winnipeg 20,238. Where twenty years before were but the establishment of a fur-trading company, Fort Garry, and a cluster of wooden houses with a few Indian tepēs, there now stands a flourishing city, with all the paraphernalia not only of municipal government, but with a provincial House of Commons. Nevertheless, the good people of Winnipeg must have been disappointed to find their fellow- citizens in 1886 many thousands fewer in number than sanguine Manitobans had been wont to estimate them. The point I wish to call attention to is, that the capital contains one-fifth of all the inhabitants of the province. Queensland was thrown open for settlement in 1842; it was separated from New South Wales in 1859; in 1861 it had a population of 30,059; at the recent census (1886), with a total population of 322,853, Brisbane, its capital, had no less than 32,567 inhabitants, or including suburbs 73,649. New Zealand, with a white population in 1886 of 578,482, has no city larger than Auckland, with 57,048 inhabitants, but its four chief towns contain together nearly one-third of its total inhabitants. New South Wales had in 1881 just over three-quarters 158 STUDIES IN STATISTICS CHAP. of a million of people, of whom more than a quarter (220,984) lived in the capital and its suburbs." At the same time the total population described as urban (which, however, included all towns and villages containing 100 inhabitants and over) greatly exceeded that described as rural.” But perhaps Victoria is the most striking case. Its population in 1881 was 861,566. Its four largest towns with their suburbs contained more than two-fifths of the whole number, Melbourne alone accounting for 282,947.” Melbourne is the largest city in the British colonies, and probably the most remarkable in its growth, but its especial distinction amongst capitals is that it comprises within its boundaries a larger proportion of the inhabitants of the country it dominates than any other. Montreal (140,747) and Toronto (86,415) are fine 1 CENSUS OF NEW SOUTH WALES, 1881. 1871. | 1881. Per cent. of Per cent. of Inhabitants. whole HInhabitants. whole population. . . population. Sydney city (excluding ship- ge e 74,423 15-1 99,857 13.8 ing) ... ... tº º Sydney with suburbs ... 134,736 26-7 || 220,984 29.5 Total Urban population... 234,162 || 467 || 433,391 || 57.9 , Rural , ... 267,417 | 53-3 314,850 42-1 * Census of New South Wales, 1881, p. xvi. 8 CENSUS OF VICTORIA, 1881. & 1871. 1881. Increase. Melbourne city tº e º e º a 54,993 ... 65,859 ... 10,886 25 with suburbs ... 206,780 ... 282,947 ... 76,167 In 1861 “Greater Melbourne’’ comprised 26 per cent. of the whole population; in 1871 a yet larger proportion, 29 per cent.; and at the last census 33 per cent. X THE GROWTH OF MODERAW CITYES I59 cities of rapid growth, but the first contains only about one-tenth of the inhabitants of the province of Quebec, and the second not one-twentieth of those of Ontario. But the country par eaccellence of large and rapidly growing cities is the United States of America. In the following table are given particulars concerning the twelve American cities in which the absolute increase of population in the thirty years between 1850 and 1880 has been greatest, and also of four much smaller cities in which the rate of growth has been extraordinarily rapid ; in Chicago it has been both absolutely and relatively marvellous. INCREASE OF CERTAIN AMERICAN CITIES IN THIRTY YEARS. census issoloensus issol: i. New York, with Brook- lyn, Jersey City, and 621,909 | 1,924,683 | 1,302,774 || 3-1 fold Hoboken ſ Philadelphia 340,045 847,170 507,125 2.5 , Chicago 29,963 503,185 || 473,222 | 16-8 , St. Louis 77,860 350,518 272,658 || 4-5 , Boston 136,881 362,839 225,958 2-7 , San Francisco 34,776 233,959 || 199,183 || 6-7 , Baltimore ... 169,054 332,313 | 163,259 || 2:0 ,, Cleveland ... 17,034 160,146 | 1.43, II 2 9°4 , Cincinnati ... 115,436 255,139 || 139,703 || 2:2 , Buffalo 42,261 155,134 || 112,873 || 3-7 , Pittsburg. ... 46,601 156,389 || 109,788 || 3:4 , Washington 40,001 147,293 | IoT,292 || 3-7 , kansas City Ú º e 4,418" | 55,785 || 51,367 |12-6 , Toledo ... ... , 3,829 50,137 || 46,308||13°l , Minneapolis 2,5641 || 46,887 || 44,323 |18-3 ; St. Paul 1,338 41,473 40,135 |31.0 × The city of Buenos Aires, federal capital of the Argen- tine Confederation, has increased in thirty-two years from 91,548 to 404,173, or 4-4 fold. 1 Census of 1860. I6o STUDYES IAW STA TISTICS CHAP. It must not, however, be supposed that the rapid growth of cities, or even the birth of new cities, is confined to the New World and the Antipodes. ENGLAND AND WALES. GROWTH OF POPULATION OF LARGE TOWNS IN FIFTY YEARS. Increase. Census 1831. Census 1881. || Absolute. Relative. London ... © tº e 1,654,994 || 3,816,483 || 2,161,489 || 2:3 fold & 1 with *.d } 206,091 636,514 || 430,423 || 3-1 , , Birmingham with Aston Manor | 145,913 || 454,616 || 308,703 || 3:1 , Manchester with 233 51 e Salford } ,148 7,649 || 284,501 || 2:2 , Sheffield 91,692 284,508 I92,816 || 3-1 , Leeds ... © tº º 123,393 309,119 185,726 || 2:5 ,, Newcastle with & Gateshead } 69,032 211,162 || 142,130 || 3:1 ,, Bradford 44,198 183,032 138,834 || 4-1 , West Ham 11,580 128,953 II 7,373 | 11°1 , Nottingham 76,190 186,575 IIo,385 2-4 , Bristol ... 104,408 206,874 Io2,466 || 2:0 ,, Hull 51,911 154,240 Io2,329 || 3:0 , Cardiff ... 7,545 82,761 75,216 || 11-0 ,, Croydon 12,447 78,953 66,506 || 6′3 , Barrow-in-Furness (Dalton sub-district } 4,333 63,037 58,704 || 14-5 , Middlesborough 568 55,934 55,366 98-5 ,, Ystrad-y-fodwg ... 2,145 55,632 53,487 || 259 ,, Norwich 61,116 87,842 26,726 || 1:44 , Stockport 40,603 59,553 18,950 | 1.47 , Bath 50,800 51,814 1,014 || 1:02 , In the above table are given particulars concerning the increase in 50 years of twelve cities and large towns of England in which the absolute increase has exceeded one hundred thousand, also of three English and two Welsh towns in which the increase, though moderate absolutely, has been relatively very rapid ; thirdly, of three towns X THE GROWTH OF MODERN CZ77ES I61 which have altered remarkably little in the half century. It will be noted that the large towns of England have grown about as much in fifty years as those of the United States in thirty; but even America cannot produce any- thing to outdo the growth of London, although it must be admitted that in the last thirty years the decennial increase of New York and its associated cities has approached that of London. The growth of our so-called metropolis during the present century has been treated ably and in great detail by Mr. R. Price-Williams," and from his paper I have taken the figures to compile the following table, which shows the remarkable growth of certain districts of London during the last fifty years— 1831. 1881. Absolute. “Relative Poplar tº ſº tº 25,066 156,510 I3 I,444 6-2 fold. Hackney ... 34,527 186,462 I5 I,935 5-4 , , Canberwell ... 28,231 186,593 I58,362 6-6 ,, Lambeth ... 87,856 253,699 I65,843 2.9 × Wandsworth... 33,090 210,434 I77,344 6-4 , Kensington ... 35,442 270,369 234,927 7-6 , , Islington ... 37,316 282,865 245,549 7-6 ,, The parish of Battersea in the Wandsworth district, numbering 5,311 inhabitants in 1831, increased by no less than 101,951 in the fifty years; and of this increase no less than six-sevenths was in the twenty years 1861-81. West Ham and Croydon may be considered as suburbs of London. Aston Manor and Birkenhead were small villages at the beginning of the century, and were little more in 1831, but they must be regarded as suburbs of Birmingham and Liverpool rather than as independent growths. Large towns seem to grow with abnormal rapidity, like * Journal of the Statistical Society, vol. xlviii. p. 349. M I62 STUD/ES /W S 7TA 7TIS 7./CS CHAP. those plants that send out in all directions “runners” which root at every joint, so that at length it is difficult to distinguish the mother-plant from its offspring. They have, however, one point in which they differ from plants— all soils seem equally fertile and adapted to their growth. The most remarkable development de novo of a large town in this country is certainly that of Middlesborough. A tiny village with but 412 inhabitants in 1801, it had by 1831 only increased to 568; but in the next ten years its people were multiplied by ten, the census of 1841 giving it 5,917 inhabitants. In the next ten years only 2,000 citizens were added; but in the ten years between 1851 and 1861 the population more than doubled, and the same extraordinary phenomenon repeated itself in the next decade. Between 1871 and 1881 its growth was more reasonable, from 39,882 to 55,934, an increase of 16,052, or 40 per cent. The growth of Barrow-in-Furness is scarcely less remarkable. It was separated in 1876 from the sub-dis- trict of Dalton. At the census of 1831 the Dalton sub- district, comprising several villages and a number of hamlets, numbered only 4,333 inhabitants, and in 1851 but 6542. Then it began to grow in earnest; at the next census its people numbered 11,243 ; in 1871 no less than 30,099, having increased between four and five-fold in twenty years. Not content with this, it doubled again in the next decade 1 The result was, that after throwing off the new sub-district of Barrow-in-Furness with 47,259 inhabitants, what was left of the Dalton sub-district in 1881 still contained 15,778, or nearly four times the population of the whole sub-district in 1831. In still more recent times, in the once quiet vales of Glamorganshire there has sprung up a place with the alarming name of Ystrad-y-fodwg. The population of X THE GRO J177A/ OA’ MO DEA'A' C/ ZTVA.S. 163 that cacophonous village numbering at the beginning of the century 1,235, had reached 3,824 in 1851; then the development of the mines led to a rapid growth ; in the next ten years the population was more than doubled ; between 1861 and 1871 it nearly trebled, and during the next decade it again considerably more than doubled, so that the Ystrad-y-fodwgites at the last census numbered 55,632, and they are doubtless still multiplying rapidly, and before long the congeries of mining villages which already constitute an “urban sanitary district,” will be completely organized into a municipal borough, with mace and chain and all other essentials. Of our large towns Bath is the only one which appears to have passed its prime (so far as numbers are concerned), for whereas in 1851 it had 54,240 people, it had in 1881 only 51,814. It is true that at the last census Manchester had nearly 10,000 fewer citizens than at the last but one, but then Manchester, like the city of London, is filled up and has outgrown its limits, so that its increase of people must be enumerated in the suburbs—not within the ancient boundaries.” A few words as to the growth of great cities on the continent of Europe. In France, where the population, as is well known, increases but very slowly, we nevertheless note the growth of large cities. This growth is, however, not as in England dependent mainly upon the two factors—(a) natural in- crease of the town population, and (b) migration of the super- fluous population from the country. In France, according to M. Toussaint Loua," the natural increase of the rural population greatly exceeds that of the urban, indeed in a 1 Journal de la Société de Statistique de Paris. March, 1885. * The boundaries of the municipality have been recently enlarged so as to follow the retreating population. 164 STUDIES IN STA 77S 7"ICS CHAP. | majority of the towns the deaths eaceed the births [Paris and Lille are the most notable exceptions to this rule]. The population of many of the departments is increasing; in seventeen departments a decrease has shown itself with trifling exceptions at every successive census from 1851— 1886.” Where the population of the rural districts is not decreasing it is increasing but very slowly. I would call particular attention to the fact, that over a large extent of France, republican and democratic as it is, with its sub-divided land, and its much-talked-of petite culture, a real depopulation of the rural communes is taking place, although there it can surely not be maintained that unjust land-laws and a grasping aristocracy oppress the peasantry. According to M. le Vicomte Rovric de Beaucaire,” there is in Germany a similar though not so marked a migration from the rural districts into towns; General Walker, the Director of the United States Census, told me that the same movement was very obvious in America. Any impartial mind will infer that the tendency thus generally apparent to quit the country homestead or village, and seek employment by preference in a large town, is due to other causes than the size of holdings or the laws regulating the tenure, transfer, and inheritance of land, since where all these circumstances vary we find the same migration going on. I will now give a few instances of the growth of large towns in France. * In the North-east : Yonne, Jura, Haute-Sãone. In the North-west : Eure, Orne, Calvados, Manche, Sarthe. In the South-west : Tarn-et-Garonne, Lot, Lot-et-Garonne, Gers, Ariège. - In the South-east : Drome, Vaucluse, Basses Alpes, War. * Bulletin du Ministère de l'Agriculture de France. February, 1886. X THE GROWTH OF MODEAN CZ77A.S. 165 FRANCE. POPULATION OF CERTAIN LARGE TOWNS. Increase in 25 years. 1861.1 1886.2 Absolute. Percent. Paris 1,696,141 2,344,550 648,409 38-2 Lyons 318,803 401,930 83,127 26-1 Marseilles 260,910 376,143 115,233 44-2 Bordeaux 162,750 240,582 77,832 47-8 Lille 131,827 188,272 56,445 42-8 Toulouse 113,229 147,617 34,388 30-4 Nantes 113,625 127,482 13,857 12-2 St. Etienne 3 92,250 117,875 25,625 27-8 Another point should be kept in mind when considering the increase of French towns. At the census of 1886 France contained 1,126,631 foreigners, or 2.9 per cent. of the whole population, a proportion that is not approached in any other European country. 43 per cent. of the foreign-born were Belgians, 23 per cent. Italians; the nationalities next most numerous were Germans, Spaniards, Swiss, Dutch, and English." Belgians 482,261 Italians 264,568 Germans 100,114 Spaniards ... 79,550 Swiss 78,584 Dutch tº gº ºn 37,149 English, Scotch, and Irish 36,134 Others 6 gº º 48,271 The Belgians, Spaniards, and Italians are chiefly found in the departments adjoining their native countries; the other foreigners are mainly congregated in the capital. In Belgium, as might be expected, there is a rapid growth of large cities, of which the following are examples— 1 Census of France, 1881. 2 Statesman's Year-Book, 1888. * The population of St. Etienne diminished between 1881 and 1886 by close upon 6,000 persons, or 4.8 per cont. 4 Census of France, 1886. IC6 STUDIES IN STATISTICS e CHAP. GROWTH OF BELGIAN CITIES.1 Increase in 34 years. Census 1846. Census 1880. Absolute. Per cent. Brussels and suburbs 188,458 394,940 206,482 109'6 Antwerp ... ... 88,487 169,112 80,625 91.1 Ghent e e tº ... 102,977 131,431 28,454 27-6 Liège e is tº ... 75,961 123,131 47, I 7o 62-1 One might go on indefinitely reciting the statistics of the growth of European cities, but it will be sufficient to give the facts for half a dozen German cities, the Austrian capital, and the Hungarian capital—well known to some of us as the abode of the famous statistician, M. J. Körösi, who has written largely on the growth of modern cities. GROWTH OF GERMAN AND AUSTRIAN CITIES.2 Increase. 1858. 1885. Absolute. Per cent. Berlin e is e 463,645 1,315,287 851,642 184 Hamburg ... 132,440 305,690 I 73,250 131 Breslau & e º 129,747 299,640 I69,893 131 München ... 137,095 261,981 124,886 91 Dresden ... 117,750 246,086 I 28,336 109 Düsseldorf ... 46,849 115,190 68,341 146 1857. 1880. Vienna & © tº 476,222 1,103,857 627,635 132 1851. 1881. Buda Pest ... 178,062 370,767 I 92,705 108 I believe the true explanation of the remarkable growth of cities in all parts of the world in recent times is that, under modern conditions, with improved culture, and above all improved means of communication, a much smaller fraction of the people is able to provide—and * Annuaire Statistique de la Belgique, 1888. * These figures are all taken from the Almanach de Gotha, except the last, which come from Die Hauptstadt Buda-Pest im Jahre 1881, von Joseph Körösi, $ 7. X. THE GROWTH OF MODERN CITIES 167 provide more amply than in the past—the food required by the whole body. Then again, those set free from the pursuit of agriculture apply themselves to supply the innumerable new requirements of a people that is living up to a standard of comfort far higher than that which contented their fathers. I63 STUDYES I/V STA 7TWST/CS CHAP. CHAPTER XI. THE POPULATION OF LONDON AND ITS MIGRATIONs." As far back as history extends, we find men living in large cities, some very ancient ones, such as Nineveh and Babylon, large even compared with most of the capitals of modern Europe; but it may be asserted, with little fear of contradiction, that such an agglomeration of human beings as is now living, toiling, suffering, pleasuring, entering the world and quitting it, to north and south, west, and more especially east of us, making up modern London, is absolutely without precedent in ancient and modern civilization. Numbers fail utterly to give us an idea of its vast size, which can only be grasped by comparison with other populations. The table shows the populations of the four largest cities of the Western World, together with the twelve countries of Europe that have fewest inhabitants, British North America, and our colonies in Australasia. POPULATION IN MILLIONS, 1880–1881. Belgium tº º ºs & 6 º' ... 5-5 || Australasian Colonies ... 2-7 Roumania. ... tº gº º ... 5'4| Switzerland ... © tº º ... 2:9 Ireland * † tº tº $ tº ... 5-2 | Paris... tº gº tº is a ſº ... 2-3 Sweden $ tº º § tº º ... 4-6 || Denmark ... tº º & ... 2-0 Canada and Newfoundland ... 4.5 | Greece tº tº s © e º ... 2:0 Portugal tº gº tº & © e ... 4:3 | Norway tº G & e tº ſº ... 1:9 Holland tº º tº 9 º ... 4-2 | Servia tº º tº tº gº º ... 1-8 London tº º º e & & ... 3-8 | New York ... * tº e ... 1-2 Scotland © tº e © tº e ... 3-7 || Berlin tº g tº ë e > ... 1:1 * A paper read at a conference at the International Health Exhibition, London, June 4, 1884. XI THE POPULA TWOAW OF LONDON 169 From this it is at once apparent that London far exceeds in population not only Paris, the city that comes nearest to it, but Scotland, Switzerland, and even our colonies at the Antipodes. It has double the population of Norway or Servia, nearly double that of Denmark or Greece. Its inhabitants are three times as numerous as those of New York or Berlin. London contains more people than Paris, Berlin, and Brussels taken together, while it nearly doubles the united inhabitants of New York and the neighbouring cities of Brooklyn, Hoboken, and Jersey City. So far, by London I have meant “the metropolitan area,” as it is called, the London of the Metropolitan Board of Works—now the county of London —and of the Registrar-General,' and unless the contrary is specified, this will be the meaning attached to the word London throughout this paper. But outside this area there is fast closing in a circle of towns such as Bromley, Croydon, Kingston, Brentford, Tottenham, Stratford, and West Ham, all of which are included within the Metropolitan Police District, and go to make up what the Registrar-General calls Greater London. This London has a population but little short of five millions, and therefore exceeding that of Sweden and approaching that of Ireland. London has certainly been a large and important city since the time of the Roman occupation, but we have no means of estimating, even approximately, the number of its inhabitants before the beginning of the present century. It is stated that, A.D. 359, some 800 vessels were employed in the port of London in the export of corn.” Truly, 1 These areas are not, strictly speaking, identical ; the county of London includes the hamlet of Penge, in addition to the “Iondon’’ of the Registrar-General. o * Haydn's Dictionary of Dates. I7o *- S7 UD/ES MAW S 7.4 77S77CS CHAP. matters have changed since then | Whatever was the size of London in her time, it is quite certain that good Queen Bess thought it was quite large enough, since she issued a proclamation from Nonesuch Palace, on the 7th of July, 1580, forbidding the erection of buildings where none had before existed in the memory of man, as she deemed the extension of the metropolis likely to increase the plague; to create a trouble in governing such multitudes; a dearth of victuals; the multiplying of beggars, and inability to relieve them ; an increase of artisans, more than could live together; and, moreover, as likely to impoverish other cities for lack of inhabitants The decree stated that lack of air, lack of room to walk and shoot, &c., arose out of a too crowded city. In 1631 Sir R. Ducie, the Lord Mayor, reported to the Privy Council, by special command, in view of an impending scarcity, that “the number of mouths esteemed to be in the city of London and in the liberty,” comprising London within the walls, London without the walls, and the Borough of Southwark, to be 130,168." But as the great plague, only thirty-four years later, is said to have killed very nearly 70,000 persons, there must have been a considerable population outside the range of Sir Robert Ducie's estimate. “In 1682 Sir William Petty, a very careful and acute observer, reckoned the population at 672,000, inhabiting 84,000 houses.”.” With the begin- ning of the present century we get on firmer ground. According to the census of 1801, the people of London mustered 958,863; by 1841 this figure was more than doubled, viz. 1,948,417, a million of inhabitants having been added in forty years; in the next twenty years 1 Natural and Political Observations on the Bills of Mortality, by Captain John Graunt, F.R.S., fifth edition, 1676. Quoted in Report on the City Day Census, 1881. * Loftie's History of London, 2nd edition, 1884, vol. i. p. 352. Plate XV : S. º -: * º +- B- | co - go -- -- * : > * = < Lil * 3 5 - º O ! i | l ; :- | 3 : t- - T. cº- #3 cº . :: VIII T D ſ sº | i | i - * º | # II # || - *0 $ 5 § º - 2 º : ; ; ; #5 $ 3.5 § – º -* wo wo § -: .5 O * - $ 1- i As º | W | º n - | ºlº - T º º ºil) |º | º |) º | L |E|| º l" * | # i XI THE POPULATION OF LONDON 171 another million were added, and again in the next twenty yet another million; in other words, in forty years the additions to London equalled the collective present popu- lations of Liverpool, Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds, and Sheffield, or the entire population of Norway, bringing up the numbers in 1881 to 3,816,483. But in spite of Queen Elizabeth's proclamation, London is not yet grown up ; it is still growing at the rate of 50,000 a year, 1,000 a week, 150 a day ! At this moment," by the trifling addition of a Hull or a Salford, London probably numbers at least 170,000 more inhabitants than at the last census. This growth is far from uniform. The map (Plate XV.) shows by the light shading outside the metropolitan area, what the Registrar-General calls the Outer Ring, extend- ing from the outskirts of Local Government London, to the boundaries of Metropolitan Police London. In the centre is a portion (white in the map) called in the census the Central Area, and comprising the City, Strand, Westminster, &c.; the part between the Central Area and the Outer Ring (indicated by the dark shading) may be called the Inner Ring. The census shows that during the last ten years the population of the Inner Ring has increased by 636,547 persons, or a Liverpool and a Birkenhead. The Outer Ring, during the same time, increased by 318,797 persons—say a Leeds; but it was otherwise with the Central Area, where there was a decrease of 74,324, equal to the population of Halifax.” This needs some comment. As it is of great import- ance that a census should be taken simultaneously all over the country, it is convenient that a time should be chosen when but few persons are moving about : such a time is a Sunday night. But obviously on a Sunday 1 June 4, 1884. * Census, 1881, vol. iv. p. 13. 172 S7 UDIES IN STATIsTics CHAP. night the numbers in the business parts of a town will be at the lowest, whereas the residential suburbs will then have most inmates. The city authorities, for reasons which may be divined, were greatly incensed at the results of this method of numbering the people, and took a day census on their own account.” Through the very valuable and interesting report on the results of this there runs a spirit of indignation which is quite amusing. I am by no means convinced that the proposed new munici- pality would be the great success that its promoters love to fancy, since new machinery does not necessarily provide new men; but the Report of the Day Census of the City, when arguing against the proposed enlargement of the corporation, seems to me to prove too much. If it be true that whereas, according to the Imperial census, only 74,897 persons slept within the city, whereas the corpora- tion enumerators found 261,061 persons to be “residing, occupied, or employed” therein “during the working hours of the day,” and in addition counted 797,563 passengers into the city by the various inlets during a single day; and if, moreover, the first number is decreasing, whereas the other two numbers are increasing, surely the conclusion is, that a city which is yearly less and less capable of pro- viding sleeping accommodation for its workers should enlarge its bounds. The causes of the diminished number of sleepers in Central London are chiefly clearances for railways, public buildings, and new streets, and the conver- sion of dwelling-houses into places of business. The growth of a population is made up of two factors: (1) the natural increase of the people, and (2) migration. The natural increase of a population is measured by the excess of births over deaths, which would be the only cause * Report on the Day Census of the City of London, 1881. Longmans. XI 7 HE POPULA TVOAV OF / O/VDOAV I73 of change if there were neither emigration nor immigra- tion. As a matter of fact, all populations are affected by both of these movements; that of London more especially. The admirable Weekly Return of Births and Deaths in London, now issued by the Registrar-General's department, is the lineal descendant of the old bills of mortality issued by the parish clerks with more or less regularity since 1603, a pedigree which should place the weekly return very high indeed in the aristocracy of periodical litera- ture. From this high-born but unassuming paper, we learn that in each year some 135,000 persons are born in London, and some 80,000 die, giving 370 daily births and 220 daily deaths, a natural increase of 150 per diem. - The population of London as a whole increases con- siderably faster than the excess of births over deaths would account for, that is to say, there is extensive immigration. On the other hand, the number of Londoners who are also London-born does not grow nearly so fast as would result from natural increase left to itself; therefore there must be considerable emigration from London (using emigration in a general sense, and not necessarily implying thereby a long sea voyage). This is also shown by the fact, that the Londoners living in the provinces in 1881 exceeded those enumerated in 1871 by 148,336. There is no record of the numbers who annually come from Ireland and Scotland, from various parts of England and its colonies, from Europe or America, to settle in London, nor of those who leave its smoky streets for clearer skies. In the absence of the requisite data, we must be content with the balance struck by the census every ten years, which expresses the net result of all the changes:— I74 STUDIES I/V STATIS 7 ICS CHAP. pººr Excess of Birth E 'ated Bal f Ten year, sil-isso | *:#;" || “..." | Nº. Central Area © º º 78,486 — 74,324 — 152,810 Inner Ring ... © º º 375,989 + 636,547 +260,558 Metropolitan Area 454,475 + 562,223 + Io'7,748 Outer Ring ... * @ G 119,910 +318,797 + 198,887 Greater London ... 574,385 +881,020 +306,635 4– The table shows that as the final result of ten years of destruction, reproduction, and locomotion, the inhabitants of the central area decreased by 74,324; but since the excess of births over deaths during the same period was 78,486, it is plain that at least 152,810 persons must have changed their abodes to some place without the central area. But it is certain that an additional unknown number went into this area : these may be said to have “paired” with an equal number who “went into the other lobby”—emigrated. In like manner we see that at least 260,558 immigrants settled in the “Inner Ring,” and at least 198,887 in the “Outer Ring.” We learn something as to whence the immigrants come by studying the tables of birth-places in the census. LONI)ON.—BIRTH-PLACES OF THE PEOPLE, Numbers. iº. Natives of London e e e tº e p 2,401,955 630 3 y other parts of England and Wales & e & 1,172,570 3O7 2 3 Ireland tº ſº e tº º e 80,778 2 I 92 Foreign Parts tº se tº 79,709 2 I 33 Scotland e tº º tº º ºs 49,554 I3 35 the Colonies ... & © tº 26,520 7 9 3 Islands in the British Seas 5,397 I Total ... tº e º 3,816,483 IOOO As compared with 1871, the Irish in London formed at the last census a somewhat less fraction of the whole, XI 7 HAE POPUZA TVON OF ZOAWDOAV I75 while provincials and foreigners were somewhat better represented. Doubtless many will be surprised to see that Scotch, Irish, foreigners, and colonists, all put together, number only some 6 per cent. of the London people ; but it should be kept in mind that children born in London of Irish or German parents will be classed among the London born. The wood-cut on p. 177 is reduced from a large cartoon designed and drawn by the late Mr. Arthur Burgess, which was intended to show to the Conference, by the proportionate height of the two figures, the two chief component parts of the annual increase of London according to the average of the ten years 1871-80. Of those born abroad or at sea, 19,457 were British subjects (either naturalized or the children of British parents born abroad), leaving 60,252 foreign-born, who were also foreign subjects. There were found to be residing in London in 1881 one-half (51 per cent.) of the whole number of true foreigners in England and Wales, although the population of London amounts to only a little more than one-seventh (14.7 per cent.) of that of the whole country. This fact alone is a strong proof of the paramount importance of our capital. The most numerous among the foreigners were Germans, 21,966; French, 8251; Poles, 6931 (mostly Jews, and very poor); Dutch, 4193 ; and Italians, 3504. A few facts as to the occupations of Londoners will be of interest. To begin with, there is no great staple manufacture in London, save those of furniture and books; consequently there is not found any preponderance of operatives in any one trade. London is the seat of government of a vast empire: hence we find the Civil Service employs of all ranks 16,670 individuals, including 762 women. The paid officers of the Local Government 176 S7 U/D/ES IAW STATIS 7/CS CHAP. and of the Poor Law numbered at the last census 3,570; 624 of them women—a surprisingly small body, soon, perhaps, to be greatly increased, for the benefit of the ratepayers. The police numbered 9,354, the soldiers about the same : so that less than 20,000 men sufficed to keep in order 3% millions of people—roughly, one policeman and one soldier to every 400 inhabitants. The clergy of the Established Church numbered 1,961, the ministers of other denominations 1,134; as assistants to these may be added 1,302 missionaries, bible-women, &c., and 1,131 nuns and sisters of mercy. Per contra, the lawyers, besides an army of clerks, numbered 5,905—as yet all men. The doctors were 3,715 strong, including 10 women. Schoolmasters and mistresses were as many as 17,963– a number 2; times as great as that recorded in 1871, the increase being, of course, due to the operation of the Education Act. The most numerous class in London seems to be domestic servants, of whom 301,188 were enumerated, five-sixths of them women. Next come the building trades, employing 121,182—caring little, I fear, for Queen Elizabeth's proclamation; the furnishing and decorating trades employ 42,366. The London printers are no fewer than 26,226; the railway servants being hardly less numerous—22,088. The publicans amount to 7,731 ; their natural associates, the pawnbrokers, to 2,378. On the other hand, coffee and eating-house keepers number only 3,686. Among the poorer classes may be mentioned 78,115 general labourers, 8,564 costermongers or hawkers, 48,559 washerwomen, and 19,334 charwomen. The magnitude of the metropolitan charities may be judged of by the fact that 4,186 persons, four-fifths of them women, are returned as in “hospital and institution service.” GREATER London GAINs PopULATION By (a) Births. - (b) Immigrants from the pro- vinces, colonies, or foreign countries; by far the larger number coming from vari- ous parts of the United Kingdom. GREATER LoNDoN Loses PopULATION By (c) Deaths. (d) Emigrants to the pro- vinces, colonies, and foreign countries. The births always exceed the deaths—this excess is called natural increase. The immigrants exceed the emigrants—this excess may be termed balance of migra- tion. In the diagram the height of the baby bears the same proportionto the heightofthe countryman as the “natural increase” to the “balance of migration” during the 10 years 1871-80. During that period the internal growth of Greater London was to its growth by accessions from outside, as 7% to 4. (The actual figures were 574,385 and 306,635.) : § 178 STUDIES IN STATISTICS CHAP. The trades most commonly followed by foreigners in England, and therefore presumably in London, are those of sailor, servant, tailor, teacher, clerk, merchant, musician, and baker. - There is no direct means of ascertaining how many out of the four millions of Londoners can be rightly called poor, meaning by poor those who are constantly or at frequently recurring intervals in absolute want of food and clothing. Nevertheless, some indications of the extent to which distress exists may be gleaned from the census. Thus, the blind numbered 3,214, the deaf and dumb 1,972, lunatics and imbeciles 6,032 (more than half being inmates of asylums)." Of these 10,218 persons, belonging to what are known as the “afflicted,” many would of course be in good circumstances; but all who have worked among the poor must have observed in how many cases an “afflicted” child, much more an afflicted parent, drags down a whole family to the verge of poverty. The struggle for existence is severe for the healthy—a little extra trouble makes it insupportable. Then, again, there were no less than 173,143 widows. But there is some more direct evidence. The workhouses and workhouse schools contained 35,511 paupers, while at the same time nearly 50,000 persons were in receipt of out-door relief. In the hospitals 7,375 sick were under treatment. Juvenile offenders gave 1,790 pupils to reformatory and industrial schools, whereas the prisons contained 6,924 full-blown criminals. These numbers will justify us in saying that the very poor cannot number less than 100,000 ; there must, however, be a much larger number but a very little removed from this class. As regards housing, the figures * The number of pauper lunatics chargeable to the county of London on January 1st, 1889, was 10,369, according to a return prepared by the Asylums Committee of the London County Council. XI THE POPULA 77ON OF LONDON 179 show that of these 100,000 very poor, some 50,000 are the inmates of public institutions. The Dwellings Com- mittee of the Charity Organization Society ascertained in 1881 that there were at that time in London nearly 40,000 persons accommodated in various “improved dwellings” of one kind or another. Also nearly 2,000 persons received the benefit of supervision on Miss Octavia Hill's admirable system." Of the 40,000 in Industrial Dwellings, many, indeed the large majority, would be above the very poorest class, and, as I think, quite rightly so. The fact that by the City census it was found that no less than 176,009 passengers entered the city in the single day by the twelve railway stations, gives some idea of the extent to which the outskirts of London supply sleeping accommodation for those who have to earn their bread near its centre. One word as to the health of this mass of humanity. The metropolitan area extends over some 12 miles from north to south, some 17 miles from east to west ; within this space 39 governments, supposed by common consent to be utterly incompetent, so rule the houses, roads, and drains of their 3% millions of subjects, that for the last ten years they have suffered a death-rate of only 22% per thousand,” or but I per thousand in excess of that of the whole country. Only seven of the great towns of England can show a better account, whereas, on the continent of Europe, Christiania and Geneva, mere villages by compari- son, alone excel London ; Philadelphia and a few other American cities are also our superiors. Have all the governments that are supposed to be capable accomplished 1 The number under each of these heads is much larger now (1890). * Ranging from 20:8 per 1000 in the western districts to 21.9 in the northern and southern districts, 249 in the central, and 25-0 in the eastern districts. I8o STUD/ES IN STA 77S. TVCS CHAP. their task as well ? Do not suppose that I bring this forward as an argument for the maintenance of the status $n quo, far from it : I wish to impress on you that by quiet, steady perseverance on similar lines we have a reasonable hope of accomplishing yet more. That we raise a “bitter cry” does not mean that we are worse than we have been ; it rather means that we are realizing more fully that we might be better. It is believed that in the 17th century the deaths in London exceeded the births, and that the death-rate then was something like 49 per 1000 per annum, or more than double what it is now, and worse by far than the unhealthiest cities of Europe of to–day." - You will now, I hope, be able, to some extent at least, to realize the enormous scale upon which social problems present themselves to the London philanthropist, the vast mass of raw material that he has to work upon. I must leave to others the more cheerful task of giving practical suggestions, of describing schemes to improve the dwell- ings of the toiling myriads of our metropolis. On my own part, I have but one more word to say, and must confess myself a disciple of Queen Elizabeth, and wish that some- thing could be done, if not to diminish the number of inhabitants, at least to prevent their increase, in which case it might be possible to work off the vast mass of arrears that neglect has allowed to accumulate. As it is the task seems very hopeless, since there are to-day 200 people more than yesterday, to-morrow yet another 200 will be added, and so on, and so on. There is but one remedy that seems at all practicable, that is, emigration; only beware of aiding emigration from London itself to * See The Sanitary Condition and Laws of Mediaval and Modern London, by J. W. Tripe, M.D., Trans. Soc. Med. Off. of Health, 1881-2, pp. 9–12. This paper contains much valuable and curious information. XI 7 HE POPULA TYOM OF ZOAVZ)OAV 181 any great extent; if you do so, for every family sent to Canada from Whitechapel or Poplar, two families will rush in from Norfolk or Devon, or even Ireland. Some eighty persons come in from the country to settle in London every day. Stop these people en route. Kidnap them and ship them off to the Antipodes. These country- men will make far better emigrants than townsmen. In other words, do all that can be done to discourage immi- gration into large towns, and tell Hodge that if he is dissatisfied with his own parish, he will do best to cross the seas. 182 STUDIES ZW STA 77S77CS CHAP. CHAPTER XII. FOOD SUPPLY. NEARLY a century has elapsed since Malthus' famous essay first appeared. The rapid development of America and Australia, with their seemingly boundless supplies of food, made men forget his solemn warnings. It will be interesting to endeavour to see whether modern statistics throw any more precise light on the matter. For this purpose we must know something of the number of mouths to be fed, and the quantity of land required to produce food for them. The following table is intended to show in the light of the experience of the last thirty years what the growth of the population of Western Europe amounts to annually. In constructing the following table I have, so far as seemed practicable, framed the earlier estimates in accordance with the present territorial boundaries, that is to say, I have anticipated the transfer of Savoy and Nice from Italy to France, of Lombardy and Venetia from Austria to Italy, of Schleswig-Holstein from Denmark to Germany, and of Alsace-Lorraine from France to the same power. The difficulty or impossibility of making correct allowances for these transfers, and the irregular times at which the first set of censuses were taken, make the results only roughly XII FOOD SOAA’A. Y. 183 approximate for many of the individual countries, but the figures for the whole may be taken as fairly accurate. INCREASE OF POPULATION OF WESTERN EUROPE IN 30 YEARS.1 (Three 000s omitted.) Increase in 30 years. Country. Date. Population. Date. Population. Tabsolute. Per cent. United Kingdom | 1851 27,391 | 1881 || 34,885 7,494 || 27.4 France ... 1851 34,592 | 1881 || 37,672 3,080 8-9 Belgium 1846 4,337 1876 5,336 999 || 23°o Holland 1849 3,247 | 1879 4,223 976 3o'I Germany 1850 | 35,231 | 1880 || 45,234 || 10,003 || 28.4 Denmark 1850 1,408 | 1880 1,969 561 39.8 Sweden 1850 3,483 | 1880 4,566 1,083 || 311 Norway ... 1845 1,328 1875 1,807 479 || 36-1 Austro-Hungary | 1850 30,727 | 1880 || 37,786 7,059 || 23°o Switzerland 1850 2,393 | 1880 2,846 453 | 18.9 Italy 1851 24,138 1881 28,460 4,322 || 17-9 Spain 1857 | 15,220 | 1887 17,257 2,037 I 3-4 Portugal 1848 3,452 | 1878 4,160 708 || 20:5 | 186,947 226,201 || 39,254 21'o Although we are without positive data, it is practically certain that for a long period the population of Europe increased very slowly, receiving great checks from famines and pestilences as well as devastating wars. We may, however, take it as proved that at the present time the countries in the table, apart altogether from the emigrants they send abroad, are within their own boundaries increasing by 15 millions per annum. A simple calculation shows clearly that the rate of increase (6.6 per cent. in each ten years) cannot possibly have been as great in the past, and that if it should be as great for another century, the population will be * Figures in clarendon type are from the Census, those in italics are estimates derived in part from the Almanach de Gotha, but mainly from Statistique Internationale. Etat de la Population, Stockholm, 1875-76. The Canary Islands are not included in Spain, nor Madeira and the Azores in Portugal. 184 STUDIES IN STATISTICS CHAP increased by 200 millions, or more than doubled, a result not indeed impossible, but one that taxes our powers of belief considerably. CALCULATED POPULATION OF WESTERN EUROPE, ASSUMING THE SAME RATE OF INCREASE AS IN THE THIRTY YEARS 1850–80. A.D. 500 ... ... 35,000 A.D. 1000 ... ... 844,000 A.D. 1500 ... ... 20,230,000 A.D. 1750 ... ... 99,037,000 A.D. 1800 ... ... 136,069,000 A.D. 1850 ... ... 186,947,000 A.D. 1880 ... ... 226,201,000 A.D. 1990 ... ... 454,995,000 In connection with the direction of flow of currents of migration, it is interesting to divide the countries of the world into those which import and those which export wheat. The following table is derived from the statistics of trade given under each country in the Statesman's Year-Book for 1887. I have thought it best not to give figures, since they might lead the reader to suppose that the facts are more accurately known than is in truth the case. To a notable degree (though with marked exceptions which admit of obvious explanation) the tendency, as might have been expected, is for food and men to travel in opposite directions. It should not be forgotten that the United States ex- ports in addition enormous quantities of animal food; the same is true, but to a much less degree, of Canada, the Argentine Republic, and New Zealand. Queensland and New South Wales are small exporters of meat. As regards Europe, many countries that import wheat export large amounts of animal food and vegetables, e.g. France, Belgium, Holland, and Germany. Denmark, which imports small quanties of wheat, exports on a much larger scale cattle, swine, hams, and butter. XII FOOD S UPPL Y 185 Countries exporting wheat. Countries importing wheat. Amount. Amount. Russia... g s 2 very large United Kingdom ... very large Roumania ... large France © e e ... large Austro-Hungary considerable Belgium ... ... large Turkey e tº a considerable Holland ... ... large Bulgaria © tº tº considerable Germany ... ... large Servia... gº º º small Switzerland ... ... large Italy... & © tº ... large India ... tº º ſº very large Spain & E & ... considerable Portugal ... ... considerable Egypt e - tº small Sweden © g e ... small Tunis... e g tº small Norway © º & ... considerable Denmark ... ... small South Australia considerable Natal © º e ... small Victoria & © º small New Zealand... small New South Wales ... small Queensland... ... Small |United States very large Canada • * - considerable Chile ... e e e small Argentine Republic considerable But it will be observed, that of all the countries named in the table of increase of population, Austro-Hungary is alone in exporting wheat, all the others require to supplement to a greater or less extent their home supplies by imports from other countries. According to writers on Hygiene, an adult man taking active exercise requires, in addition to animal food, about 1; lbs. of bread per diem. It will probably not be much above the mark, therefore, if we say that a population of European race will consume on an average about 1 lb. of bread per head per diem. This, taking Dr. Parkes' figures, amounts to an annual consumption of nearly 5% bushels of wheat." To be within the mark then, we will 1 A Manual of Practical Hygiene, by E. A. Parkes, M.D., F.R.S., 5th edition, 1878, pp. 222, 241. I have taken the bushel of wheat as weighing 60 lbs., yielding # of its weight in flour, of which 100 lbs. yield 140 lbs. of bread. I86 STUD/ES MAW S 7.4 TVS ZYCS CHAP. say that each individual requires 5 bushels of wheat per annum, and taking the crop to average 30 bushels to the acre, we see that each acre of corn land will support 6 people. Taking the yearly growth of population in the United States to be, in the decade 1880-90, nearly 1,250,000, we find that 208,000 acres of land require to be brought under the plough annually to supply their increasing requirements in wheat alone. Now 208,000 acres is not far short of the area of Huntingdonshire. But in Essex, Norfolk, and Suffolk in 1884 * a little more than one-third of the total area was under corn crops, and in Lincolnshire a little less than one-third ; these four being the chief corn-growing counties of England. Let us, however, suppose one-half the land devoted to the growth of wheat ; it will certainly then be within the mark if we say that to feed the new mouths added to the United States in each year of the decade 1870-80 required that at least 400,000 acres of land (= 625 square miles) should be brought into complete cultivation. In other words, to make the figures simpler, each million of population requires at least 500 square miles of fertile land for its food supply. But in the United States the yield is stated to be only 13° bushels to the acre, so that, keeping well within the mark, we may again double the last figure, and allow 1000 square miles for the support of each million. If this be so, we may say that the present population of the United States, reckoned in 1890 at 62% millions, could be almost supported by the possible agricultural produce of the single state of Iowa. * A calculation from the figures given in the United States' Census, 1880, shows that, after exporting nearly one-third of the wheat produced, there remains for home consumption about 6 bushels of wheat per head. * Stanford's Parliamentary County Atlas. 1885. * Census of United States, 1880, vol. iii. N XII FooD Söppy y & 187 But again, from the analogy of Europe, it would appear that we have much understated the amount of land required by such a large population. La Belle France is rightly considered to be a very fertile country; its population, a little over 38 millions, cannot, however, find sustenance on its 204,092 Square miles, and has to import considerably more food in the way of grain and flour than it exports in other forms, such as wine, fruit, vegetables, dairy produce, and the like. It seems fair then to say, that under present conditions it contains at least as many inhabitants as the soil will support. If this be so, in France each million of population requires 5,340—say 5,000, square miles for its support. By simple proportion we find that the 62% millions of the United States would require at this rate not the produce of Iowa only, but in addition that of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Illinois, which, as a glance at the map will show, occupy a considerable portion (more than 10 per cent) of the whole territory. But while the population of the United States increased as we have said by 1,200,000 in each year of the decade 1870-80, the population of Western Europe, as we have seen, also increased by 1,400,000. This gives then 2% millions of new mouths to be fed annually, and this at the very lowest estimate. And if we say that each million requires 1000 square miles of land for the purpose of growing wheat, we get to the result that 2,600 square miles of virgin land must be brought under the plough every year; now 2,600 square miles contain 1,664,000 acres, or more than the area of Devonshire. It is, therefore, no exagger- ation to say that the time will come, and that before the end of the next century, when men will once more think seriously of Malthus and his warnings. We are too apt to forget that most of the best land in the United States 188 STUDIES IN STATISTICS CHAP. has already been taken up ; of this we have had a striking proof twice recently in the land-rushes or “booms” that have taken place when an Indian reserve has been thrown open to settlement. The truth of the matter is, that while the railway and the “self-binder” have been increasing so largely the wheat supply, a vast city popula- tion has been growing up in the eastern and middle states, a population as dependent on imports of food as any in Europe. - Further, it is important to bear in mind that the growth of population proceeds not in an arithmetical pro- gression, that is by equal increments in equal times, but in a geometrical progression, like compound interest, so that larger and larger amounts are added in each succes- sive period. Now the population of the United States during the past century has doubled itself in every twenty- five years. Supposing the same rate of growth to be maintained, what would this imply 3 No less than this: twenty-five years ago the population of the United States was thirty millions less than it is now ; but twenty- five years hence it will be increased by twice thirty millions, and in the next succeeding quarter of a century by an additional 120 millions. It is true that the area and resources of the country are very great, but they are not without limit." Dr. Giffen, in his inaugural address as president of the Statistical Society in 1882,” gave good reasons for saying that “perhaps in the course of ten, and almost certainly in the course of twenty years,” we should begin to feel in various ways the consequences of the * Professor Hayden (Stanford's Compendium of Geography, North America, London, 1883) estimated that there were in the United States 660 millions of acres (say one million square miles) of arable land still uncultivated. Prof. Macoun (Manitoba and the Great North-West, London, 1883) in like manner gave Canada still 200 millions of acres. *Journal of the Statistical Society, vol. xlv. p. 545. XII FOOD S UPA/ Y 189 complete settlement of the Western states. One conse- quence we may venture to hope will be that rents in this country will begin to rise again (and what is more, to be paid) with a rise in prices, so that the English landlords and farmers, or at least their children, may look forward to a good time coming." These speculations are involved in so many uncertain- ties, and are subject to so many possible modifications, that they are of perhaps little value, may rather may lead to evil results. This, however, is the point on which I wish to lay emphasis: the demand for food increases every year not merely in Europe, but even more rapidly in those countries which we are too apt to look upon merely as the granaries of Europe. 1. It is, however, likely that timber will fail us long before our wheat supplies fall short. See W. Little in Forestry for August 1883. I90 STUD/ES MAW STATIS 77CS CHAP. CHAPTER XIII. SUGGESTIONS FOR THE CENSUs OF 1891." ONCE more we are on the eve of a census. Next year, 1890, that greatest of all statistical operations will be carried out in Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Hungary, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United States; and in the year following in France, Italy, and throughout the British Empire. In the eloquent words of M. Körösi, “Millions will again be spent ; the great army of enumerators, an army which includes in all half a million, perhaps a million of agents, will be mobilized once more. Battalions of this army of enumerators will invade again every inhabited place, from the snow-clad peaks of Alaska and of Iceland to Cape Town and even to the south of Australia. In order to draw up under uniform rules the vast inventory of the human commonwealth, patrols of this great army will penetrate anew into the palaces of the great capitals of the world, and into the lonely shanties of the squatters in the wilderness; they will omit neither the tents of the Bedouins, the huts of the Eskimo, nor the wigwams of the Red Men.”.” * Read before the Royal Statistical Society, 25th June, 1889. * Bulletin de l’Institut International de Statistique, 1887, 1° Livraison, p. 215. XIII S UGGESTIO/VS FOA' 7"HZ CEAVS US I91 To the Royal Statistical Society every census, even of the smallest or least powerful state, is full of interest, and each has its special value; but at the same time that of the British Empire, comprising as it does the largest number of individuals of any, and concerned as it is with every continent and every climate, has naturally an overpower- ing interest. If the marvellous growth of population in our own islands, as recorded from decennium to decennium, touches us most closely, yet it scarcely interests the think- ing Englishman of to-day more than the progress, yet more marvellous when all the conditions are considered, of our colonial empire. The census of 1881 revealed to us the existence of populations in Canada as numerous as, and even in Australasia not far short of, that of the United States at the time of the war of Independence, and in civilization, wealth, and organization far in advance of it. The enthusiasm of colonists leads them to put trust in extravagant estimates of their rate of progress, and another census will serve to test these estimates and enable us once more to touch firm ground. Indeed there is reason to believe that our own estimate of population, even in England and Wales, is beyond the mark, and needs correction, or verification. The earliest census of which we have any account is that of Moses, recorded in Numbers." This was followed nearly five hundred years later by that carried out by King David through the unwilling agency of Joab. Both of these seem to have been undertaken for military pur- poses; the latter took nine months and twenty days to accomplish, and whether we follow the figures given in the account in Samuel,” or in the Chronicles,” we see that the number of fighting men in Israel and Judah had 1 Numbers i. 1–46. * 2 Samuel xxiv. 1–17. * 1 Chronicles xxi. 1–17. 192 STUDIES AAW STA TWS TYCS CHAP. somewhat more than doubled in the interval; the usually accepted chronology makes this interval 473 years, giving a rate of increase far slower than any of which we have recent experience, but it is obvious that there are so many points of uncertainty in the accounts that it would be rash in the extreme to draw any inferences from them. What is, however, of more practical interest is, that the record of the Divine wrath at David's census produced such a powerful impression upon the Christian world, that we hear of no census during the Middle Ages, nor indeed until the 17th century. This is the more remarkable in that the census was a regular Roman institution, one of the chief duties of the Censors being to record the number of Roman citizens every five years for purposes of assess- ment. In the New Testament' we read of a census of “ the whole world,” undertaken at the command of Caesar Augustus. A census of Gaul is alluded to by Tacitus.” Unfortunately no reports of these Roman censuses have reached our day, the records having all perished. They are, however, in a few instances quoted by his- torical writers, e.g. Livy says that the number of “citizens” at the census taken B.C. 457 was 117,319 °; at the census of B.C. 193 it was 143,704 “; five years later, B.C. 188, it was 258,318; and the historian notes that the Campanians were on that occasion registered at Rome, and various others were included for the first time"; at the census B.C. 173 the number given was 269,015, with the explanation that the figures were small because the Latin allies had been entered in their own states"; lastly, Tacitus says that at the census taken during the reign of the Emperor Claudius (died A.D. 54), 1 St. Luke ii. 1. * Ann., Lib. I. cap. 31, and Lib. II. cap. 6. * Liv., iii. 24. 4 Id., xxxv. 9. * Id., xxxviii. 36. 6 Id., xlii. 10. XIII SUGGEST/OAVS FOA' 7AHE CENS US 193 the number of citizens was found to be 5,984,072; ' pro- bably this number included all the citizens throughout the empire. Gibbon, writing of this census, calculates that this number of citizens probably corresponded to a population of 20 millions, counting women and children.” I have recently been informed by Mr. H. H. Risley, of H.M. Bengal Civil Service, that a census of Thibet was taken in the 13th century by Kubla Khan, but know no details. The earliest census in modern days which I have come across is that of La Nouvelle France, as the part of Canada now known as the province of Quebec was then called, in 1665. This, it will be noted, was a census taken in a Roman Catholic country in which the Church has always been especially powerful, so that one may presume that no religious objection was made. Canada is indeed the most remarkable of all countries for the number of its censuses. No less than fifteen regular censuses” of New France, some or all of them nominal, were taken between 1665 and 1754; nine of them in the 17th century. During the same period seven censuses were taken of Acadia (now Nova Scotia), and six of Newfoundland. In France official estimates of the population were made in 1700 and again in 1784, the latter being founded on the mean annual number of births, but the first regu- lar census of France was taken in 1801. In Sweden the “Table Commission,” which was charged with the duty of collecting through the clergy periodical returns of population and annual returns of 1 Tacitus Ann., xi. 25. 2 Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, vol. i. ch. 2. Gibbon gives the figures as 6,945,000. * Exclusive of numerous official “Statements of Population.” See Census of Canada, 1870, vol. iv. Introduction. A “nominal” census is, one in which every individual is recorded by name. O .I.94 STUD/ES MAV STA TVS 7/CS CHAP. births, marriages, deaths, and causes of death, was founded in 1749, the celebrated Linnaeus being one of its founders. Under its auspices a census was taken in 1751, then every third year (with three omissions) to 1775, then every fifth year to 1860, since which the census has been decennial. In the United States of America a decennial census is provided for by the Constitution ; the first was taken in 1790, the tenth in 1880. The first proposal to take a census in this country was contained in a bill introduced into the House of Commons in 1753, “for taking and registering an annual account of the total number of the people, and of the total number of marriages, births, and deaths; and also of the total number of the poor receiving alms from every parish and extra-parochial place in Great Britain.” The bill, though supported by the Ministry, was violently opposed. Its chief opponent in the Commons, Mr. Thornton, member for the city of York, said, “I did not believe that there was any set of men, or, indeed, any individual of the human species, so presumptuous and so abandoned as to make the proposal we have just heard. . . . . I hold this project to be totally subversive of the last remains of English liberty. . . . The new bill will direct the imposi- tion of new taxes, and indeed the addition of a very few words will make it the most effectual engine of rapacity and oppression that was ever used against an injured people. . . . Moreover, an annual register of our people will acquaint our enemies abroad with our weakness.” Mr. Matthew Ridley, member for Newcastle- upon-Tyne, stated that he knew by letters that “the people looked on the proposal as ominous, and feared lest some public misfortune or an epidemical distemper should follow the numbering.” It was further urged that the scheme was costly and impracticable ; that it was an imitation of XIII SUGGESTIONS FOR THE CENS US 195 French policy, borrowed from our natural enemies; and that it would not only be a basis for new taxation, but for a conscription. On the other side, Mr. George Greville, a lord of the Treasury, said, “It will be extremely useful at all times for many useful purposes; and in the case of a long war it will be absolutely necessary; for the usual methods of raising recruits for our army would not then be sufficient ; we should be obliged to have recourse to that of obliging each parish to furnish a certain number.”” The Bill passed through all its stages in the Commons by large majorities, but was thrown out on the second reading in the House of Lords. The House of Lords, be it observed, as on many occasions in our history, taking the side that was believed to be that of popular rights and liberties. “Nearly half a century passed away before the pro- posal was renewed ; but when the new Bill was introduced, in November 1800, into the House of Commons, it had the advantage of a great change which had apparently occurred in public opinion on the subject of population. The old fear that the number of the people was falling off, and that an enumeration would betray the inability of the country to furnish a due supply of soldiers for the army, had given place to a new and opposite form of alarm, namely, that the people were increasing so rapidly as to outstrip the means of subsistence. Among the causes which may be supposed to have brought about this change of opinion, probably the most powerful was the great dearth which prevailed in the country at the time when the Bill was brought forward, much of the time of both Houses of Parliament being occupied in the year 1800 in discussions on ‘the present high price of provisions’; while a second 1 This paragraph is taken, with slight abridgment, from the General IReport, Census, 1881, vol. iv. p. 1. 196 STUD/ES YAV STATIS 77CS chap. cause that may fairly be assumed to have had some influ- ence on the matter, was the attention excited by Malthus's great work, of which the first edition was published anony- mously in 1798, and taught its readers that there were other aspects of the question of population than the military one. “The Population Bill was brought in by Mr. Abbot, member for Helston, on November 20th 1800, and passed through all its stages without opposition. The enumera- tion was made on March 10th in the following year, and has been repeated ever since, without omission, in the first year of each successive decennium.” The first census of Ireland was taken in 1812, but was a failure. Of the Irish census of 1821 a committee of the Statistical Society said, in 1840, it “appears to have been by far the most perfect in its machinery and method of any that has yet been executed in these islands.” It was the first nominal census taken in the United Kingdom. It is well to bear in mind, though it is often forgotten, that in the last century there was no knowledge whatever of the number of the English people (such as was to some extent supplied on the continent of Europe by the plan of police supervision), and that our first census, imperfect as it was, was taken ten years after the death of Adam Smith, twenty-five years after the publication of the Wealth of Nations. - - The early censuses were taken by the agency of the overseers of the poor in England, by the schoolmasters in Scotland; the results were abstracted under the super- intendence of Mr. Rickman, assistant clerk to the House of Commons. From 1841 onwards the censuses of Great * This paragraph is taken, with slight abridgment, from the General Report, Census, 1881, vol. iv. p. 2. * Journal of the Statistical Society, vol. iii. p. 90. XIII SUGGESTIONS FOR THE CENSUS 197 Britain have been taken through the agency of the Registrars of births, deaths, and marriages, those of Ireland by the Constabulary, with very great advantages in each case. Opposition to the census on Biblical grounds is now a thing of the past: opposition on the ground that the census is inquisitorial has also, there is good reason to believe, gradually lost its force. But while it is now agreed among all civilized nations that a census is a useful and desirable thing, many points still remain open for discussion; these practically resolve themselves into the three following questions, viz.:- I. How frequently should the Census be taken 2 II. What Questions should be Asked in the Schedule 2 III. In what way should the Information. Obtained be Abstracted and Tabulated 2 There is an immense deal to be said under each of these heads, and the Statistical Society has since the year 1840 appointed a committee before every census to inquire into the various questions and report to the council. In consequence of the reports of these committees, the Society has from time to time made important representations to the Government of the day, which, while they have disappointed many by not effecting all that the Society had hoped to achieve, yet have resulted in very important improvements. The most notable was in 1840, when the action of the Society led the Government to withdraw its Bill and introduce another modelled on the lines suggested by the council. I.—How frequently should the Census be taken 2 General experience appears to point to the unanimous conclusion that the interval from census to census should in no case be greater than ten years. Considerations of 198 STUDIES IA7 STATIS 77CS CHAP. expense have in the majority of cases prevented the census from being taken at shorter intervals; thus, in Austria, Belgium, the greater part of the British Empire, Denmark, Holland, Hungary, Italy, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United States, the census is decennial. However, the exceptions to this long interval are both numerous and important. In the Sandwich Islands a census has been taken every six years since 1853. In France a census was taken in 1801, 1806, and every five years since 1821. In Sweden every five years from 1775–1860. In Germany in 1867, 1871, 1875, and every five years since. In Finland every five years since 1875. In Sweden every three years from 1751–75. In Baden every three years from 1846-67, and from 1821-43 more frequently. In Hanover every three years from 1830–64. In Prussia every three years from 1834-67. In Saxony every three years from 1834-67. In Bavaria every three years from 1834-67. In Würtemburg every three years from 1834-67." In Upper Canada (now the province of Ontario) a census was taken annually for nineteen years from 1824–42. In New Zealand nine censuses have been taken since that of 1851, at intervals of from three to seven years, the last interval being five years. In Queensland there is also a quinquennial census. In the North-West Territory of Canada it was found de- sirable to take a census in 1885, and in Manitoba in 1886. * Sir Rawson W. Rawson in MS. See also État de la Population (Congrès International de Statistique, 1876). XIII SUGGAESTIONS FOR THE CENS US I99 * Fourteen of the States and Territories of the Great American Republic took an intermediate census in 1885, and it is rumoured that in future the census of the United States is to be quinquennial. If a census is useful to the Executive Government for a variety of purposes, such as taxation, military service, or parliamentary representation, it is to the working statistician something more : it is not merely the great measure of the rate of progress of nations, but it is a prime necessity for all measurements. The population as re- corded in the census is, as it were, a sealed standard, or rather it is like the base line or the datum level of the surveyor, to which all distances and all elevations have to be referred. But the statistician is not concerned only with heights and distances, his world is one of many dimensions. Land and houses; railways and ships; cattle, grain, and timber ; gold and silver, iron and coal; imports and exports; taxation and revenue; births, deaths, and marriages;–all measurable things are measured by him in relation to population. The merest tyro in statistics knows that crude gross numbers are of little value for purposes of instruction, nay, that the most erroneous con- clusions are but too easily drawn from them ; a unit of comparison is required in all figures, and as the statistician for the most part deals with ever-changing quantities— “variables” as the mathematician terms them—he needs a scale for comparative measurement. As, moreover, the figures with which the statistician deals are always related, either directly or indirectly, to men, his scale must be one showing numbers of men, so that it is of para- mount necessity that he should know at any time the number of men corresponding to the number of things under discussion, that is, the population of the country or " district concerned. Further, as all human things are, like 2OO STUD/ES /AW STA 7TWST/CS CHAP. the atoms of Democritus, in “a constant state of flux,” in default of continuous information these populations must be ascertained at short intervals. Those who hold that ten years is not too great an interval between census and census, will doubtless main- tain that no useful inferences as regards Great Britain can be drawn from the experience of the countries named above. They will say that on the one hand in great military countries, such as France and Germany, the requirements of the conscription necessitate a frequent enumeration of the people, while, on the other hand, rapidly growing but sparsely populated new countries, such as New Zealand, Queensland, or Manitoba, afford no precedents for old countries like this. Without deny- ing that there is some force in these objections, I would submit that the population of this country grows very fast, and that its pressure is strongly felt ; that, moreover, such districts as Barrow-in-Furness and parts of Glamorgan- shire (not to speak of the suburbs of London) grow with a rapidity which rivals that of the mushroom cities of the southern hemisphere and the far west. On the other hand, if we have no compulsory military service, we have school boards, sanitary boards, poor law boards, county councils, and other authorities which are all in various ways interested in knowing from time to time the exact populations of their administrative areas. Population is now recognized by both parliamentary and local government Reform Acts to be the basis of representation, whereas under the existing arrangements a very few years after the taking of a census no one knows what the population is. Thus, for example, the Local Government Act, 1888, gives the status of “county boroughs” to towns (other than those which are “counties of themselves”) which on the 1st day of June, 1888, had XIII SUGGAE.S.TIO/WS FOR THE CEVS US 2OI populations of not less than 50,000. Among such county boroughs the following will be found in the schedule: Barrow-in-Furness, Coventry, Devonport, Dudley, Great Yarmouth, Hastings, Reading, and Wigan. None of these had in 1881 a population amounting to 50,000; it is indeed probable enough that on the day named some of these towns had populations of that size, but it is almost equally probable that others still fall short of that number. By what means these towns were included in the schedule is, I suppose, an official secret." Doubtless it is a matter of small moment whether the population of Reading, for example, was on 1st June of last year 48,000 or 50,000, but I cite this as a fair instance of the state of uncertainty resulting from the long interval that now separates one census from another. Again, objectors will call attention to the fact that triennial censuses and even annual censuses have been tried and abandoned again after trials extending over many years. True ; but in Germany triennial censuses have given place to quinquennial, not to decennial, censuses. In other countries the decennial period has equally been tried and found wanting; thus Canada, after giving up annual censuses for decennial, is now, in part at any rate, reverting to quinquennial censuses. In fact, as in most things, a reasonable mean should be fixed upon, a mean which balances the evils of long delay and excessive expense. Not only is more interest taken in statistics than was the case when ten years was fixed upon as the census period—not only are statistics used for many practical purposes then undreamed of-but the changes which it is the object of the census to measure are far more rapid than then. Perhaps the rate of natural increase 1 Sir Hugh Owen informs me that the increase of population was deduced from the increase in the number of inhabited houses. 2O2 S 7 UD/ES WW S 7.4 77S77CS CHAP. of populations is not very different, but the railway and the steamship, and indirectly the penny post and the telegraph, greatly increase migration—every degree of migration, that from continent to continent, from country to country, from county to county, even from village to town; all these forms of migration, the last not the least, are of great interest to the politician and the political economist; yet when an inquiry was recently made by Parliament into the subject of the immigration of foreign paupers and its influence on the labour market of this country, the only official information available as to the number of foreigners resident in England was no less than seven years old, and therefore quite inconclusive, if not absolutely valueless, for the purposes of the inquiry. Then again the changes in industrial conditions brought about partly by new inventions, but largely by improved facilities of communication, are far more rapid than formerly : so rapid that there is an unquestionable want of more frequent information as to these points than is now given us by the Government. But perhaps the chief argument in favour of a quin- Quennial census is its desirability as a basis for the more correct calculation of birth-rates and death-rates. In this country the registration of births, deaths, and marriages is very complete, and the Registrar-General publishes weekly, Quarterly, annually, and decennially, elaborate reports of the highest value. In addition to these returns, the medical officers of health throughout the country report in great detail every year (and at shorter intervals) to the sanitary authorities of the various districts. These various reports are by universal consent admitted to have con- tributed materially to the marked improvement in the public health from which the nation has benefited in recent years. Since, however, the medical officers are in too XIII SUGGESTIONS FOR THE CENS US 2O3 many instances in complete ignorance of the true popula- tions of their districts for at least five years out of every ten, the published birth-rates and death-rates lose much of their value, and the large amount of money expended upon their preparation and publication is to that extent wasted. In all statistical computations as to any matter under investigation in the interval between two successive censuses, it is obviously necessary, whatever that interval may be, to interpolate corresponding values for the popu- lation. It is pretty evident that these interpolated values will be more likely to be close approximations to the facts when the intervals are short than when they are long. The official method of estimating the population at any given time is based on the assumptions (1) that the rate of increase during the decennial period is uniform, and (2) that the rate of increase in the years succeeding the last census is the same as in those immediately preceding it. In some cases the results obtained are very satisfactory : thus when the census of 1881 was published it was found that the actual populations of Birmingham, Brighton, Liverpool, Maidstone, Middlesborough, Southampton, Tyne- mouth, and Wolverhampton were within 1 per cent. of the estimates. But in the case of the following towns, among others, the estimates eacceeded the actual populations by from 6 to 11 per cent., viz.: Portsmouth, Bolton, Leicester, Salford, Sheffield, Rochdale, Chatham, and Stoke-on- Trent ; by 15 per cent. in the case of Halifax, 16 per cent. in the case of Merthyr Tydfil, and 22 per cent. in the case of South Shields. On the other hand the estimates fell below the true populations in the case of London by 3 per cent., Nottingham 5 per cent., Hull 8 per cent., Lincoln 10 per cent., Barrow-in-Furness 15 per cent., and Stockport 18 per cent. Again, the same method of calcu- lation applied to the districts and sub-districts into which 2O4. STUDIES IN STATIS 7 JCS CHAP. London is divided for purposes of Sanitary administration, would have over-estimated the populations of Paddington, Kensington, and Battersea to the extent of 15, 27, and 39 per cent, respectively. It is obvious that such con- siderable errors must render death-rates or other figures founded upon them entirely deceptive and valueless. The Registrar-General himself, in the Weekly Return, has for some time past called attention to the fact that as regards the twenty-eight great towns, the estimated populations of Leicester, Salford, Bradford, Newcastle-on-Tyne, and Cardiff are not to be trusted; that those of the first three towns are probably over-estimated, of the other two under- estimated ; more recently he has spoken of the estimates for all the great towns as untrustworthy. Further, he is so mistrustful of estimates in the case of the smaller towns, that in recent quarterly reports he has ceased to publish estimated populations (and consequently death- rates) of any of the “fifty other towns.” These limitations naturally detract considerably from the interest and value of the respective returns. I have shown elsewhere that partly owing to the great fall in the birth-rate exceeding the fall in the death- rate, but more especially to the sustained large flow of emigration, there is good reason to believe that the actual population of the United Kingdom in April 1886, or the middle point between the census last passed and the census next to come, was between 400,000 and 500,000 less than the number given by estimation according to the official method. The error it is true amounts to only about 14 per cent, still if the present conditions are maintained it will amount to little short of a million before we have another census to set us right. If so great an error can be made in the estimation of a population of * Journal of the Statistical Society, vol. xlix. pp. 760-63. XIII SUGGESTYO/VS FOR THE CEAVSU/S 2O5 36 millions, it will be readily understood that when small areas are dealt with, such as counties or towns (in which intra-migration plays an important part), errors absolutely indeed less, but proportionately far greater, may be expected to occur. A great deal has been recently written to prove that gross death-rates, that is, death-rates calculated on the total population without any allowances for the age and sex constitution of that population, are very imperfect tests of sanitary conditions; but of what avail is it to undertake laborious calculations with a view to apply the requisite corrections, when the gross death-rates themselves are perhaps over or under-estimated by 2-0 or 3.0 per thousand 3 The last objection, that which will probably have most weight with the Government in deciding the question, is that of expense. Let us see what this amounts to. The cost of the last four censuses of the United Kingdom, according to a Parliamentary Return (No. 377 of 1875), which I have brought up to date, is given on p. 206. It will be noted that the cost per head in Scotland, and in 1871 in Ireland, has been much greater than in England and Wales; this is doubtless partly due to the populations in the former countries being more scattered, but largely to the fact that a greater amount of information is sought to be obtained. A mere counting of heads by a simpler intermediate census would be less costly, and yet extremely useful; besides its direct use, it would be a valuable check on estimates as to number of children of school ages, number of married persons, &c.; but I understand that in the opinion of the authorities of Somerset House the saving to be effected by thus curtailing the inquiries would not be so considerable as an outsider might suppose. Whether 2O6 STUDIES IN STATIS 7./CS CHAP. COST OF THE CENSUS. º Local Expenses. Total. º0 ENGLAND AND WALES. f 4. £ £ s. d. 1841 28,400 58,328 86,728 5 9 – 1851 33,062 60,070 93, I 32 5 4 — 1861 28,805 66,915 95,72O 4 15 5 1871 41,674 78,304 I I9,978 5 5 73 1881 35,906 86,972 122,878 4 14 8 SCOTLAND. 1861 5,218 18,464 23,682 7 14 8 1871 6,34o 20,764 27, IO4 8 1 4 1881 6,165 21,582 27, 747 7 8 64 IRELAND. 1851 ... 24,281 4,289 28,570 4 7 2 1861 ... 26,702 2,259 28,961 4 19 11 1871 ... 35,527 3,067 38,594 7 2 74. 1881 ... I7,45 I 4,164 21,615 4 3 6; UNITED KINGDOM. 1861 ... 60,725 87,638 I48,363 5 2 7 1871 ... 83,541 102,135 185,676 5 19 2 1881 ... 59,522 112,718 I 72,240 4, 18 9 any appreciable saving could be effected, in view of a quinquennial census, by the establishment of a census office with a small permanent staff, as recommended by this Society in 1880, and again in the present year, is rather a matter for the Local Government Board to decide, but there would certainly be some advantages in such a plan. The regular work of registration would not be periodically disturbed, and the staff of highly-trained * The lirish tables in 1871 were much more extensive than in other censuses; also the commissioners were called upon, when their work was partly done, to alter their tables so as to make them harmonize with those of the English census. XIII SUGGEST/O/WS FOR THE CENS US 2O7 specialists would find employment in the comparatively short intervals between the publication of one census and the preparations for another, in preparing as required estimates of populations and returns of various kinds for parliament, royal commissions, select committees or government departments, and in conducting such inquiries as those desired by Messrs. Booth and Marshall, to which I shall shortly recur. But any way, suppose the cost of an additional census of the United Kingdom in each of the years 1896, 1906, &c. to amount to £200,000, what is such an expense to the richest country in the world ! Great Britain has always taken the lead in matters relat- ing to the public health, and has been an example to other nations; let her not lag behind in this matter, for the census is in reality a process subservient to sanitary operations. After all, the expenditure proposed is small in comparison with that granted (and wisely granted) by Parliament for agricultural returns. The present census may be taken to cost £2O,OOO a year : is it such a very serious thing to raise this amount to £40,000 ! In this connection it will be interesting to refer to the Act passed by Congress last year authorizing the eleventh census of the United States. This enacts that the enumeration shall be commenced on 1st June, 1890, and completed before 1st July; but within fourteen days in the case of all towns which had in 1880 upwards of Io,000 inhabitants. In no census previous to that of 1880 was the enumeration completed under five months, a period approaching the nine months and twenty days of King David's census ! The cost of the earlier censuses in America had risen from $44,000 in 1790, to $833,OOO in 1840, and $3,361,OOO in 1880; while the amount pro- vided in this Act is, exclusive of printing, engraving, binding, &c., $6,400,000, or say £1,28O,OOO! The 2O8 STUDIES IN STATISTICS CHAP. enumerators are to be paid by results on the following scale— - • 2 cents for each living inhabitant. 2 93. death reported. 5 » surviving soldier, sailor, marine, or widow of such. What effect such a method of payment may possibly have upon the population, the death-rate, or the pension list, an American might be better able to judge than an Englishman. The great elaboration of the United States census is largely owing to the fact, that under the constitution the federal authorities have no power to obtain statistical information, and attempts to obtain it would be opposed through the jealousy of States' rights; therefore the powers conferred on the executive, by that provision of the constitution which necessitates a decennial census, are stretched so as to comprise inquiries into all manner of subjects not necessarily comprised in a census. The inference to be drawn from all this is, that, as recommended" by this Society in 1880, and again in the present year— The Census Act of 1890 should be so framed as to establish the census upon a permanent quinquennial basis. II.--What Questions should be Asked in the Schedule? Statisticians may be divided into two classes, (a) those who clamour for much information on many subjects, even though such information be confessedly very imperfect; and (b) those who, being of a more sceptical turn of mind, prefer to ask for very little, and to concentrate their efforts on getting that little with the greatest attainable accuracy. The latter school has, perhaps fortunately, hitherto pre- vailed on English census commissions; the Scotch and XIII SUGGAESTIO/WS For THE CENSU's 209 Irish officials have been more sanguine and more enter- prising, perhaps for that reason more expensive. - The English schedule, 1881, is divided into eight columns, viz., (1) name and surname, (2) relation to head of family, (3) condition as to marriage, (4) sex, (5) age last birthday, (6) rank, profession, or occupation, (7) where born, and (8) if deaf and dumb, blind, imbecile or idiot, or lunatic. - 3. As to the first seven columns it is, I think, plain that none of them is superfluous; the eighth, however, I object to. People do not like to admit defects in them- selves or their children, and I should think that this demand that any afflicted members of the family should be specified cannot fail to irritate. Experience accordingly proves that the figures as regards idiots are very imperfect, so imperfect as to be valueless." For this reason I am of opinion that inquiries as to those mentally afflicted might well be confined to the inmates of public institutions. The inquiries as to the blind and deaf-mute are perhaps less offensive, and, especially in the case of the blind, may be useful. Many additional points for inquiry have been from time to time suggested; such are— - A. Particulars as to House Accommodation—The Statistical Society has asked for more information on this head in 1850, 1860, 1870, and 1880, asking especially for a return of the number of rooms, urging that the propor- tion of persons to rooms would be a valuable index of sanitary condition. The number of rooms with windows was ascertained in the census of Scotland in 1861, 1871, and 1881, though the question was not included in the householder's schedule. The housing of the working classes is a subject that now attracts a great deal of 1 Census, 1881, vol. iv. pp. 68, 69. 2IO STUDIES IN STATISTICS CHAP. attention, and if the number of rooms can be readily ascer- tained without adding another question to the schedule, it might be well to do it. The proposal of the International Statistical Institute to classify families according as they dwell on the ground floor, the first floor, &c., is evidently framed on lines that are suited to the lofty houses of continental towns, and perhaps to blocks of artisans' dwellings in this country, but scarcely to the ordinary conditions of English life. It has also been proposed that dwelling-houses “to let” should be distinguished from other unoccupied houses.” B. Divorced Persons.—The International Statistical Institute insists that divorced persons should be so returned.” I do not myself in the least believe that such persons would enter themselves correctly, and I do not see that any material point would be gained if they did. c. Occupations.—It is in reference to these that most suggestions have been made. In the instructions on the back of the 1881 schedule, persons engaged “in trades, manufactures, or other business,” who employ others, are told to return themselves as “masters,” and to state how many they employ. No use seems to have been made of this information, which was perhaps very imperfectly obtained. Mr. Booth, Professor Marshall, and a number of other political economists who are greatly interested in improving the statistics of labour, look upon the distinction between employer and employed as one of prime import- ance; they therefore propose that a new column should be inserted after that relating to “rank, profession, or occupation,” that in this should be stated whether the indi- vidual was “employer,” “employed,” or “neither.” Their *Journal of the Statistical Society, vol. xliii. pp. 137, 138. * Bulletin de l’Institut International de Statistique, 1887, 1* Livraison, p. 366. XIII SUGGEST/OAWS FOR 7"HE CEAVS US 2 I I idea is that shortly after the census a special, more detailed, inquiry should be made as to all who returned themselves as employers. This suggestion strikes me as practical; for while I think that the kind of information which these gentlemen seek could never be satisfactorily obtained through the census directly, it would be other- wise with a special inquiry made of the comparatively small number of persons who would be returned as employers. 4 D. The Unemployed.—In the instructions on the back of the 1881 schedule, persons who may be at the time of the census out of employment, are instructed to return themselves as “unemployed.” Either the question was not answered, or the answers were unsatisfactory (as in my opinion they must always be); any way, no use was made of them. The Statistical Society does not appear ever to have asked for this information. E. Wages.—It has been proposed that men earning wages should be asked to state their amount. This also I do not find among the Society's recommendations; and personally I am strongly of opinion that no answers of any real value would be obtained. F. Religious Profession.—A religious census is taken in most foreign countries: it is taken in Ireland, and in most of our colonies and possessions. The principal excep- tions are Great Britain, France and Italy, and the United States. Before the unification of Italy a religious census was taken in Sardinia. The proposal to ask people in England their religious profession, a proposal that has been recommended by this Society in 1840, 1860, 1870, and 1880, has always excited an amount of feeling which I confess I find it difficult to understand. The Dissenters, it is stated, object that persons of no religion would be returned as members of the Established Church, while 2 I 2 STUD/ES IN STA TIS 77CS CHAP. many persons of all sorts of opinions say that a man's religious opinions are his own affair, and that no one has a right to inquire into them. This last objection is, I think, largely founded on the misconception that the object of the census is inquiry into individuals, whereas inquiry is made of individuals solely with a view to obtaining results as to aggregates. However, while I think that a column should be added to the schedule for religious profession, I do not agree with the recommenda- tion of the Society in 1880, that the filling in of this column should be compulsory. To make it optional meets, to a great extent, both the objections given above; the enumerator is not compelled to return something, and is not therefore tempted to put down “Church"; while the householder who objects to the question need not answer it. It would probably be necessary, where no entry was made opposite the names of children, to put them down invariably to the father's religion (if any); otherwise small and enthusiastic denominations might get a fictitious increase of numbers by looking after their members' children. It should be borne in mind that, according to Dr. Grimshaw, no difficulty is experienced in Ireland, where very few persons avail themselves of Mr. Forster's conscience clause.” I fully admit that the returns obtained would not be absolutely correct, nevertheless I cannot but think that the results of successive censuses would be most valuable for comparisons, and that most interesting tendencies to increase or decrease, in one direction or another, would be brought to light. * Jubilee Volume of the Statistical Society, 1885, p. 154. * In the discussion which followed the reading of this paper, Mr. Martin J. Griffin, speaking of the Canadian census, said that they found no difficulty in that country in regard to the religious question. XIII SUGGESTIONS FOR 7"HE CENS US 2 I 3 G. Education.—Particulars as to schools have been asked for in days gone by, but I take it that all such information is now to be found in the reports of the Education Department. In 1870 the Society recommended that the schedule should ask, in reference to all persons aged seven years and upwards, whether they could read and write. The information might be interesting if it could be obtained, but as there seem to me to be points of greater importance, personally I should not press for it. H. Nationality.—It has been proposed to ascertain the nationality (or race) of foreigners, apart from their birth-places. More important is the suggestion to record the children of foreigners born in this country. Every- thing that throws a light upon the composition and changes in blood of a nation is to me of extreme interest. To carry out this proposal would, however, involve asking of every one the birth-place of his parents, as is done in the United States. Incidentally the replies would throw much light on the origin and constitution of our town populations. I. Sickness.-It has been proposed to ask, in the present infirmity column, for a return of all those sick at the time of the census. This would no doubt give information of interest to friendly societies and to the medical profession, but I see a serious fallacy in the fact that the amount of sickness, usually excessive at the time of the year when the census is taken, would be greatly influenced by the state of the weather immediately pre- ceding the census day. The permanently infirm might be correctly returned. J. Consanguineous Marriages.—Lastly, it has been proposed by Sir John Lubbock and others, to settle once for all the disputed point of the alleged causation of 2I4. STUDIES IN STATISTICS - CHAP. idiocy, deaf-mutism, &c., by the intermarriage of near relatives. The point is one of undoubted interest, nay of real practical importance ; to an outsider, moreover, it might seem susceptible of easy solution. It would require a special column in the schedule in which should be entered against every married or widowed person whether or no there was any relationship between husband and wife, since the point to be ascertained is, what number of consanguineous marriages are contracted. It is not at all likely that this information would be correctly given; moreover, we have seen that the return of idiots is ex- tremely defective, so that on more than one ground it would be impossible to draw valid conclusions from the returns obtained. III.-How are the Results to be Tabulated 2 It was the especial work of the International Statistical Congresses to secure as far as possible uniformity in the questions asked in the census. In this they obtained a very large measure of success, but M. Körösi, of Buda Pest, has shown what a little way uniformity in schedules goes towards securing uniformity in results; the methods of abstraction and tabulation are at least as important, while much depends upon questions of interpretation and classification of replies." M. Körösi has made it a great object of his life to endeavour to secure such uniformity of method. M. Körösi's admirable work may perhaps be said to err on the side of thoroughness, it is too logical and too complete for most English statisticians; I shall not attempt to discuss M. Körösi's suggestions in detail, but since they have recently received the imprimatur of * Jubilee Volume of the Statistical Society, 1885, pp. 159 and 171 ; also Bulletin de l’Institut International de Statistique, 1887, 1* Livraison, p. 196. XIII SUGGESTIO/WS FOR 7'HAE CEAWS US 2I 5 the International Statistical Institute, I think it best to give them here. It should, however, be borne in mind that these recommendations have in view international comparisons, not what one may term domestic statistics, and that therefore they refer to the whole country, not to counties, towns, or other sub-divisions. As many of the questions alluded to do not enter into the English schedule, many of the recommendations are inapplicable. “Conclusions voted by the General Meeting on the Pro- posal of the Census Committee." “To render possible international comparisons of the results of the enumerations of the populations of different countries, the committee proposes to adopt the following rules for tabulation— “1st. As regards the statistics of houses: the numbers of families and of persons of which they are composed to be tabulated according to the following categories: living in basements—on the ground floor—on the first floor—on the second floor—on the third floor—on floors above the third—families occupying several floors. “2nd. As regards statistics of families : families com- posed of a single person—of several persons—special establishments; indicating in every case the numbers of families and of their members. “Special establishments to be distinguished according to the following sub-divisions: Hotels—hospitals—schools and educational establishments—religious houses (other than educational)—jails and prisons—almshouses and charitable institutions — military establishments— other establishments. The numbers of establishments and of inmates to be given under each heading. i Bulletin de l’Institut International de Statistique, 1887, 1°re Livraison, pp. 365-67. 216 S7 UD/ES IN STATIS 77CS CHAP. “Information as to Individuals. “3rd. Number and state of aggregation of the popu- lation: classification of parishes (communes) or other administrative units, according to the following classes: number of parishes with not more than 500 inhabitants— of 501 to 1,000 inhabitants—of 1,001 to 2,000—of 2,OOI to 5,000—of 5,001 to Io,000—of Io,001 to 20,000—of 2O,OOI to 50,000—of 50,001 to IOO,OOO—of IOO,OOI to 2OO,OOO—of 200,001 to 300,000—of 30O,OOI to 40O,OOO —of 400,001 to 500,000—above 500,000. (It is desirable to give the enumeration of centres of aggregated popula- tions composed of several communes, such as Manchester with Salford, Brussels or Vienna with its suburbs; this will give the aggregated populations of neighbouring com- munes which—although separated as far as their local government is concerned—represent nevertheless from the economic and social point of view only a single centre of population.) “4th. The distinction of the seates should enter into all combinations in the tables of population. “5th. Ages should be tabulated by annual periods. (It is desirable to give in the table of annual periods of age a recapitulation in quinquennial groups.) “6th. Civil Condition should be tabulated under the following categories at least : unmarried; married (includ- ing the separated); widowed; divorced. “Civil Condition should be combined with age in the following divisions: 0–15, 15–20, and so throughout in quinquennial groups of ages. “7th–8th. Religions and Nationalities— “(a.) All denominations returned in the schedules should be reproduced in the tables. “(b.) For the principal religions and nationalities, XIII SUGGE.S.TIO/VS AVOR 7'HE CEAVS US 217 and more particularly for those which exceed IO,OOO individuals, the following combinations should be shown — “(A) Age in decennial periods. “(B.) Total number of persons above fifteen years of age unable to read or write. “(c.) Principal religions combined with prin- cipal nationalities. “9th. Birth-place: The tabulation will be made separately for every one of the states indicated in the schedules. “10th. Number of persons over fifteen years of age in the total population unable to read or write. “11th. Statistics of the population according to the floors of houses inhabited by them (see Resolution No. 1), and according to age (by quinquennial groups—see Resolu- tion No. 5), to be given in the following groups:– “(a) Country (places not exceeding 2,000 in- habitants). “(b) Towns (of from 2,001 to IOO,OOO inhabitants). ‘(c.) Large towns (above IOO,OOO inhabitants). “12th. Infirmities, that is to say statistics of the blind, deaf-mute, lunatic, and idiotic. There should be shown : “(a) The numbers of persons living in families or in institutions. “(b.) Infirmities in the following combinations at least : number of blind who are also deaf-or dumb–or lunatic—or idiotic : number of deaf- mutes who are also either idiotic—or lunatic ; “(c.) Civil condition according to the four categories; “(d) Principal religions; “(e.) Principal nationalities; “(f) Age in annual periods. 218 STUDIES IN STATIS 77CS CHAP. . “It should be remarked that the questions proposed do not concern the statistics of counties (départments) or parishes (communes). It will be sufficient to reply to each question by a single number relating to the whole country.” As regards these recommendations, I would remark that the first recommendation, as I have said above (relating to floors of houses), is not applicable to England." The same remark, that it is unsuited to England, applies to the third resolution (as to the aggregation of popu- lation), at any rate so far as its form is concerned. I am in some doubt as to what English term is most akin to commune, but certainly English parishes differ so very much in area, that I can see no object in the table proposed, unless rural parishes are separated from those forming integral parts of towns. It seems to me that what is wanted is rather a classification of districts according to the density, not the mere amount of the population. A small urban parish of 2,OOO inhabitants might be most densely, a large rural parish with a like number of inhabitants most sparsely, populated. As regards the fifth resolution, that referring to ages, the question has been exhaustively discussed in various reports of the Registrar-General, also in the report of the last census,” where, with a view to giving as nearly as may be the information required, and at the same time to avoid fallacies, two tables showing the estimated number living at each year of age are given.” Resolution No. 6—civil condition : I do not myself in the least believe that in this country the divorced would 1 Dr. Balfour reminds me that it is applicable to some of the Scotch towns, notably Edinburgh. * Census, 1881, vol. iv. pp. 17–20. * Ibid. pp. 85, 86. * XIII SvggESTIONS FOR 7AE CENSUS 219 return themselves as such, neither do I see any practical object in that part of the resolution. As regards Nos. 7 and 8, the first part of the recom- mendation is evidently directed against unwise grouping. Mr. Risley informs me that the last census of India loses much of its value by the grouping together of religions and castes. The conditions in India are of course special, and the religious sects and castes have a practical import- ance from an administrative point of view. Of course so long as we in England do not ask people's religious opinions, their ability to read and write, &c., we cannot classify these things. Quite apart from the recommendations of the Institute, there are several points concerning the abstracting of results and making of tables which deserve consideration. I am informed that no part of the work of tabulation is so laborious and so difficult as that relating to the occupations of the people," and certainly no part gives so little satisfaction to the large number of persons interested therein. Thus, for instance, a well-known labour representative in the House of Commons has com- plained that the important trade of the iron-moulders is not even mentioned. There is no distinction between employer and employed, a point of much interest. There is also a confusion between dealers and manufacturers. The reply of the experts of the Registrar-General's department is, that the schedules ask that employers should be dis- tinguished from employed, but that the distinction appears in the replies in only a very small minority of cases; that so long as it is left to householders to fill in their own schedules it will be impossible to get them filled in 1 For this reason M. Körösi and the International Statistical Institute have as yet not dealt with it. 22O STUD/ES IN STA TVS 77CS . CHAP. correctly; nay more, that even on the Continent where the schedules are filled in by the police, a method very repugnant to the instincts of our people, the informa- tion obtained is very far from correct. Moreover, even with the best information, classification is very difficult— thus, for example, a man returned as a bootmaker may keep a small shop and deal in machine-made boots: at the same time he works at the last himself, and in busy times may employ one or two hands. How should he be described ? Then again, every one is familiar with the modern practice of dealers describing themselves as manu- facturers, when in reality they make nothing. Men following two trades also cause difficulties. Thus A.B. returns himself as “farmer, brewer”; perhaps he has a large brewing business and a very small farm ; whereas C.D. returns himself as “miller, farmer,” whereas in truth his mill is but a poor affair, while his farm is a large and valuable one. It would appear as if the difficulties of the last two classes of cases might well be met by a system of two-fold entry. Thus under farmers it might be stated in italics, “ of whom . . . are also returned under other classes"; and similarly after bootmakers, “ of whom . . . are also returned as dealers in boots.” Then at the end there would be given a gross total from which second entries would be deducted, leaving a net total that would correspond with the total population. A point which admits of far easier remedy is some sort of subdivision of the large mass of persons returned as of no occupation. If only the children and the married women were returned separately, it would minimize the evil of rash inferences drawn by ill-informed people. This alteration is such a simple one, that I trust it will be adopted in the following census. Mr. Booth and Mr. Marshall, as mentioned above, are XIII SUGGESTIONS FOR 7"HE CENS US 22 U anxious that the schedule should indicate in the case of every person whether or no he was an employer—then that subsequently a second schedule should be delivered to all employers, by which much valuable additional inform- ation might be obtained. The only objections to this scheme that are apparent are (1) its expense, (2) its inquisitorial character. As regards the first it should be remembered that the second inquiry would only involve a minority of the schedules, and as regards both objections it should be borne in mind that similar detailed inquiries as to commercial matters are effected without much difficulty in the United States and in our colonies. Many have complained of the unsatisfactory lumping together of men of all degrees of skill, or want of skill, under the general heading of “labourers”; also that the labourers in the census form a class of themselves, and are not apportioned to the various trades to which they really belong. The farm labourer is so far as possible kept apart, but it is otherwise with the bricklayers' labourer. These objections are fully admitted by the officials, but it has hitherto proved impossible to get these men to describe themselves otherwise than as “labourers.” In Denmark" the women and children dependent on those engaged in each occupation are given, a point much desired by economists, but again one that presents great practical difficulties. In occupation statistics one uniform method of classification cannot be suitable for all countries; the attempt, for example, in 1881 to apply the English system to India led to the most absurd results. In any case there can be no doubt of the advisability of taking into consideration the way in which the workmen classify 1 Journal of the Statistical Society, vol. iii. p. 81. 222 STUDYES IN S 7.4 77S77CS CHAP. themselves. If at the last census the great trade organiz- ations had been consulted the iron-moulders would not have been omitted. As regards birth-places it has always struck me as very unsatisfactory that 56,373 persons are described as “natives of foreign parts, but British subjects,” while nothing is said of the countries of their birth, and no distinction is made between children of English parents born abroad, and true foreigners who have become naturalized. The census committee of the Society in 1880 suggested, to meet the case of the children of British parents born abroad, the addition of these words to the schedule: “If of ‘British parents,’ add those words.” The Statistical Society also recommended in 1880” that the Government should order returns to be made by various public departments giving detailed information as to the subjects under their purview at the date as near as might be of the census. Such for example as— Local Government Board, as to pauperism. Education Committee of Privy Council, as to education and Schools. Charity Commissioners, as to charities. Prison Commissioners, as to criminals. Lunacy Commissioners, as to lunatics. Board of Trade, as to agriculture, &c. Inspectors of factories and mines. Also to ask for reports from railway and dock companies. Failing a proper religious census, it might be well to repeat with proper precautions the inquiry made in 1851 as to the numbers attending places of worship. Lastly, the want is ever more and more generally felt of a short abstract giving in a convenient form the * Journal of the Statistical Society, vol. xliii. p. 138. * Ibid. vol. xliii. pp. 135, 136. XIII SUGGESTYONS FOR THE CENS US 223 results of the census of all the divisions of the United Kingdom together, but not in any way to supersede the several separate reports The increasing interest of late years in the development of our colonies has caused a very natural demand for something even more than this, for an abstract of the principal results of the census of the whole Empire, something more detailed than that given at the end of the fourth volume of the last English census." Such an abstract, for example, should give distinctions of races. If everything were prepared before- hand it might be issued a very short time after the returns were made up, and while the mass of details was passing through the press. The conclusions then which I submit to you for discussion are as follows:— I. That the Census Act of 1890 should be so framed as to establish the census permanently on a quinquennial basis. II. That no inquiries should be made as to persons of unsound mind other than inmates of institutions. III. That the number of rooms in dwelling-houses should be recorded, but this should be ascertained by the enumerator, and not be upon the schedule. IV. That a column should be provided on the schedule in which each person should be entered either as “employer,” “employed,” or “neither.”* This question to be in view * Census, 1881, vol. iv. pp. 74, 75, and 112. * Mr. Waters has called my attention to a point of detail which his experience teaches him to be of very practical importance. The words “employer’’ and “employed" differ only in the last letter; it will therefore often be difficult or impossible to distinguish one from the other, and many errors and much loss of time will result. It would be better to use such words as “master” and “journeyman” (which may be abbreviated into “M.” and “J."), or some purely conventional signs, e.g. “A” for “employer,” “B” for “employed.” 224 STUDIES WW STA TWS TYCS CHAP. of a subsequent special inquiry as to the employers. Should this special inquiry be refused by Parliament, of course the question on the schedule would fall with it. W. That there should be a column on the schedule for religious profession; the filling up of this should, however, be optional. WI. That persons following more than one trade, or being at the same time manufacturers and dealers, should be entered under both headings, and the requisite correc- tions made in totalling the occupations. VII. That in the classification of occupations the great trade organizations should be consulted. VIII. That the large mass of persons now placed under the heading “persons returned by property, rank, &c., and not by special occupation,” should be broken up by separating all children under a certain age, and all married women not otherwise specified. IX. That the country of birth of “natives of foreign parts, but British subjects” should be given ; also that those born of British parents should be given separately from those naturalized. * X. That an abstract should be published giving the principal results of the census of the entire British Empire. Doubtless many more committees will present reports, and on many future occasions the council of the Royal Statistical Society will make representations to the Govern- ment, before a parsimonious Treasury will undertake to meet all the wishes of ever-grasping statisticians. Still we must persevere; according to the laws of our being we must perforce continue to ask for that which we think we ought to have. If on the one hand we look back and see how many disappointments we have suffered in the past, possibly we may feel sorely discouraged; but on the other XIII SUGGESTIONS FOR THE CENSUS 225 hand if, with the Government statistics of to-day in our hands, we try to picture the materials with which the statisticians of 1835 had to work, we ought to feel truly grateful for our improved resources. If in this paper I have dealt with the question of a quinquennial census at what may to many appear to be undue length, I have done this with intention, feeling as I do that this is not only the reform most wanted at the present moment, but the one that we are most likely to obtain, and one that if obtained would tend more than anything else to the gradual perfection of the census of the British Empire. 226 , STUDIAES ZAV STA 7TWS TYCS CHAP, CHAPTER XIV. THE RECENT DECLINE IN THE ENGLISH DEATH-RATE CON- SIDERED IN CONNECTION WITH THE CAUSES OF DEATH. [Read before the Statistical Society, 18th March, 1884.] ONE of the most striking facts of the day, from the statistician's point of view, is the remarkably low death- rate that has prevailed in this country during the last eight years. From 1838 to 1875 inclusive the death-rate averaged 22.3 per thousand, but during the eight years 1876-83 inclusive, it has averaged only 2013. The only approach to such a low mortality was in the five years 1841-45, when the death-rate averaged 21'4; so that the recent low rate is both considerably lower and extends over a greater number of years." Mr. Noel A. Humphreys, in his paper last session,” proved conclusively that if the English death-rate should continue at the low average of the five years 1876–80, the mean duration of male life in this country would be increased by 2-0 years, and that of female life by no less than 3-4 years, as compared with the English Life Table. Moreover, among males 70 per cent., and among females 65 per cent., of this increased life would be lived between * Forty-fourth Annual Report of the Registrar-General, p. xliii; Quarterly Return of Marriages, &c., No. 140, p. ix. * The Recent Decline in the English Death-Rate and its effect on the Duration of Life.—Journal of the Statistical Society, vol. xlvi. p. 189. YIV 7 HAE DAEC/LAWE /AW THE DEA 7TH-RA 7TE 227 the ages of 20 and 60 years, or during the most useful period. At Mr. Humphreys' request I have taken up the ques- tion where he left it, and have examined the changes that have taken place in the death-rates at different ages in the two sexes from various causes of death. The subject is intricate, surrounded with difficulties, and though entailing considerable labour, is perhaps not productive of adequate results. I have to thank Mr. Humphreys and his colleagues at the General Register Office for help in many ways, but must take upon myself the entire responsi- bility for the accuracy of the figures put forward, and the conclusions drawn therefrom. The somewhat voluminous tables no doubt contain errors, but I feel confident that these cannot be of much importance, since the whole of the calculations have been checked, and all unexpected results carefully re-examined. Moreover the calculations have been made by the aid of the Arithmométre of M. Thomas, which, in my hands at any rate, gives more accurate results than logarithmic computation, besides being infinitely less laborious. As I shall have to deal entirely with the Registrar- General's Returns, it is well that I should say in limine that after carefully reading all that has been advanced in recent years against “The National System of Vital Statistics,” I am thoroughly convinced of the soundness of that system and the fallacies inherent in all attacks upon it. Moreover, having studied for several years the figures relating to “Alleged Causes of Death,” I have been more and more convinced of the value of those figures, and I fully believe that they may be taken as, on the whole, a fair approximation to the truth. At the same time it is hardly necessary to say that like all other statistics they require care and knowledge in handling. 228 STUDIES IAV STA TVST/CS CHAP. Without doubt the figures relating to alcoholism, venereal diseases, and perhaps insanity, are almost valueless; but that does not prove that those relating to scarlet fever, pneumonia, or cancer are equally valueless. Neither does the fact that a large number of certificates are carelessly filled up, invalidate the far larger number that are more trustworthy: indeed these very sources of error are subject to laws, and are more or less constant factors of the whole. When it is possible, as I have elsewhere * proved it to be, to find general laws regulating many of the causes of death, and especially mutual relations between these causes, and relations between some of them and various external phenomena, the only possible inference that I can deduce is that the figures dealt with are the expression, more or less accurate, of facts in nature. The national importance of the subject must be my excuse for this digression. But in spite of what I have just stated, it must be admitted that there are numerous fallacies to which the classification of deaths according to their alleged causes is liable. They are— Firstly, in a number of cases no cause of death is specified at all. In 1847 about 4 per cent. of the deaths came under “cause unspecified,” but in 1880 this proportion was reduced to less than 1 per cent. Secondly (and this is a much more important source of error), in a larger number of cases the cause is stated in such a vague or indefinite manner as to be almost valueless. The terms “atrophy,” “debility,” “old age,” “haemorrhage,” “dropsy,” &c. give but little information; but it is satisfactory to note that, from the commencement of the reports in 1838 to that last issued, the improvement in this respect is steady and continuous. For example, * See chapters xv., xvi., xviii., and xx. Of this work. XIV THE DEC/L/AVE //V THE DEA TH. RATE 229 very few cases are now returned simply as “dropsy,” but the dropsy is referred to disease of the heart, kidneys, liver, or ovaries. Thirdly, where the cause is definitely assigned, there is good reason to believe that in a large number of cases, owing to carelessness, ignorance, a desire to spare the feelings of relatives, or even less worthy motives, the causes of death assigned are barely approximately correct. The returns themselves indicate that this source of error is also diminishing. Fourthly, medical science like most other things is more or less under the dominion of fashion, hence the same disease is at different times given different names. By the aid of a little medical knowledge this can to a large extent be allowed for. - & Before entering into fuller detail it will be convenient, without taking into account sex and age, to ascertain what alleged causes of death appear to be growing more and more potent, and what on the other hand are less and less frequently assigned. For this purpose we may utilize Table 34 in the Registrar-General's Forty-Third Annual Report. In this are given the mean annual rates of mortality for each period of five years from 1850 to 1879. From it the table on the following page is constructed. This table suggests several remarks. In the first place it will be noticed that six so-called “zymotic diseases,” viz., fever, cholera, small-pox, scarlet fever, diarrhoea, and measles, between them contribute a fall of 1,375 deaths per million, against which there is a set-off of 114, being the rise under the heads of diphtheria, croup, and whoop- ing-cough, leaving a net fall of 1,261 deaths per million from the principal zymotic diseases. But as the total fall 23O STUDIES IN STA TISTICS CHAP. TABLE A.—RISE OR FALL IN THE DEATH-RATES PER 1,000,ooo PERSONS LIVING IN ENGLAND AND WALES, FROM WARIOUS CAUSES OR GROUPS OF CAUSES. AVERAGES OF QUINQUENNIUM 1875-79, COMPARED WITH AVERAGES OF QUINQUENNIUM 1850-54. Risen per I, OOO,OOO Living. Fallen per 1,000,000 Living. Lung diseases ... ... 1,213 || Phthisis tº c > * - e. 694 Heart , tº o 0. • * * 696 || Developmental diseases 617 Brain diseases, excluding Fever ... tº gº º 0 - e. 569 convulsions } 378 Dropsy .... tº e - * - G 405 Kidney diseases ... - e. e. 229 | Convulsions ... ... 342 Cancer ... * * * • * e I9 I | Cholera ... º “º e © e e 287 HDiphtheria and croup ... 69 Small-pox tº e e * - e. I97 Tabes mesenterica tº e e 65 Scarlet fever ... * - e. I 73 Whooping-cough ... • * * * 45 | Hydrocephalus or tuber- Rheumatism e e - - tº º 45 cular meningitis } III Liver diseases” ... & e e 32 | Sudden death — cause - unascertained } IOI Diarrhoea . • • tº e º 85 Diseases of stomach and º e 68 intestines } Measles ... tº e º tº º tº 64 All other causes tº º º 2.99 Total tº tº 0. ... 2,963 |. Total ... . . . 4, O I 2 º! Balance ... a fall of 1,049. from all causes is 1,049, it is evident that the deaths from non-zymotic diseases must have risen 212 per million. The increased mortality from lung diseases is remark- able. It will be shown in the sequel that this is not to be explained by the fall in phthisis, even were that fall large enough to explain it. Doubtless, however, some of the cases (but not very many) now classed under bronchitis would have been attributed to phthisis thirty years ago; also some cases formerly attributed to old age alone are now more properly classed under diseases of lungs, brain, * The rise of 32 per million under “liver diseases” is made up of a fall of 25 under hepatitis, and of 20 under ascites, and a rise of 77 under “other liver diseases.” - XIV THE DECL/AWE I/V THE DEA 7TH-AEA TE 23 I or kidneys. Among the diseases of the nervous system there is a fall under the vague term “convulsions” in the first few years of life, nearly as great as the rise under the other members of the group at later ages. Now it is obvious that errors due to all the four causes mentioned above, and more especially errors due to changes in nomenclature and classification, will be minimized by comparing two periods as near together as possible, and for my present purpose it is convenient to take the periods 1861-70 and 1876-80. The facts for the first period are at once available in Tables 2 and 3 of the Supplement to the Thirty-Fifth Annual Report of the Registrar-General, which give the death-rates for males and females separately, from all causes, and twenty- five separate causes, at twelve groups of ages. My tables differ from these in the following respects:– (1.) The rates are per 100,000 living at each age, instead of per million, as I believed that the essential features would be rendered somewhat more clearly by the use of fewer figures. (2.) I group all ages above 75 together, since the returns of ages of very old people are untrustworthy, and the numbers are small. (3.) In place of twenty-five causes or groups of causes I have used only sixteen. This was done mainly to save labour, but partly because some of the causes given by the Registrar-General, such as “diseases of the skin,” were unimportant for my purpose. If it had been practicable without very great labour, I should have preferred to separate “convulsions” from other brain diseases, and liver diseases from other diseases of the digestive organs, the group, “Diseases of the Digestive System,” being too heterogeneous to have much value. -- - With the figures so obtained I have compared like 232 STUDIES IAW STATIS 77CS CHAP. rates for the five years 1876-80. These rates were laboriously calculated from the numbers of deaths given in each annual report, which had to be cast and the averages taken. At first I had wished to take advantage. of the 1881 report, issued since Mr. Humphreys’ paper, but decided not to do so, for it seemed best to consider the same years as he did ; moreover, the classification of causes of death was altered in 1881 in such a way that I found the difficulties greatly increased when I began by including that year. Tables I, II, V, VIII, form a double set, IA, IIA, &c. relating to males, IB, IIB, &c. to females. All four tables relate to the same facts, namely, the average annual numbers of deaths in England and Wales from certain causes at certain ages. The french type refers to the ten years 1861-70, and the roman type to the five years 1876-80. Tables IA and IB give the actual average deaths. Tables IIA and IIB give the death-rates per 100,000 living at each age. - - Tables VA and WB give the percentage rise or foll of the death-rates in the second period as compared with the first. Tables VIIIA and VIIIB give the gain or loss in lives per annum consequent on such fall or rise in the death-rates.” - . By the use of the four tables together it is hoped that the real importance or otherwise of the fluctuations will * Tables IA and IB are derived from the Supplement to the Thirty-fifth Annual Report of the Registrar-General, pp. 2, 3, and from the Annual Reports for 1876-80, pp. 146 et seq. in each report. Tables IIA and IIB are derived in part from Tables 2 and 3 in the Supplement to the Thirty-fifth Annual Report, in part are calculated from Tables IA and IB by the aid of the populations at each age given in the census, from which mean populations for the period in question were calculated. Tables VA and VB, VIIIA and VIIIB are derived from the preceding tables by calculation. XIV 7THE DECL/AVE //V 7A/A2 ZXA2. A 7TH-AEA 7TE 233 be shown. An example will make my meaning clear. Among females over 75 years of age the death-rate from diphtheria fell 40 per cent. : the consequent gain was only one life per annum. Among females between 45 and 55 years of age the mortality from lung diseases rose 5 per cent.: the consequent loss of lives amounted to 126 per annum. In the examination of these tables it will be convenient to consider those causes of death first which Table A shows to have been long decreasing in fatality, and subsequently those which appear to have increased. Phthisis, or pulmonary consumption, is very fatal at all ages from 15 to 75, but most so between 20 and 55 ; at ages 5–20 it is more fatal to females than to males; after 45 it is more fatal to men. The death-rate has declined at every age with one insignificant exception ; the decline being for males 14, for females 22 per cent. For both sexes the decline was greatest (28 and 27 per cent.) between the ages of 15 and 20, when deaths may be considered, in an economic sense, the greatest loss, since the individual of that age has been supported by society for a great number of years, but has as yet done but little in return. The decline has been not much less considerable among both males and females at all other ages below 25, varying from 18 to 26 per cent. The mortality of males above 35 has diminished very little, but that of females has fallen between 14 and 24 per cent. until the age of 75, after which there is a trifling rise. The lives saved amounted to 3,966 males, 6,806 females; not less than 2,885 of the former and 4,233 of the latter were of ages 15–35, that is to say, were among the most useful of the community. The question has often been considered as to how far this well-known fall in the 234 STUD/ES MAW S 7.4 TVST/CS CHAP. mortality from phthisis is due to “medical fashion,” that is, how far it may be a mere question of classification, since it is equally well known that the mortality assigned to the diseases of the respiratory organs (principally bronchitis) is increasing. Now there are two answers to this question. Firstly, it would appear that the discovery of the so-called bacillus of tubercle tends to confirm the opinions of the older writers that phthisis is a distinct disease sui generis, with many forms of manifestation, and not an ill-assorted mixture of unrecognized diseases as has been more lately taught. Secondly, there is an argument that is more in place here : the mortality from phthisis is shown by the table to have diminished at the ages 5–35 to an extent varying from 15 to 28 per cent, whereas at all these ages the mortality from diseases of the lungs remained com— paratively stationary. This is especially well seen in Tables VIIIA and VIIIB. I have elsewhere * shown other reasons for believing that substantially the diagnosis of phthisis from bronchitis corresponds with nature. We must therefore credit medicine, whether preventive, curative, or both, with another triumph here ; and let it be remembered that this triumph means the saving of many lives when they are most valuable. There is still ample material to work upon, plenty of room for further improvement. Developmental diseases come next in the list of those that have decreased in fatality during the last three years. In the tables these fall under the head “all other causes.” The most important of them are “atrophy and debility,” relating almost entirely to young infants, and “old age,” which explains itself. “All other causes" account for about one-third of the deaths of children under 5, about half the deaths over 75 years. The death-rate has * See chapter xviii. of this work. XIV THE DEC/L/WE WAV THE DEA TH-RA TE 235 fallen 11 per cent. for males and 13 per cent. for females, and the fall has taken place at every age of both sexes; this fall is tolerably even throughout, at least it does not exhibit the marked preference for the two extremes of life: which might have been expected. The “lives saved” number 8,425 males, 9,837 females; of these numbers 4,346 males and 4,372 females are in the first five years of life, and may be fairly attributed to the better management of children and improved sanitary surroundings, which have diminished the deaths under the vague headings “ teething,” “atrophy,” and the like. Of the rest, 2,431 male and 3,586 female lives saved are at ages over 65, at which period there is a large increase of deaths from “local diseases,” as they are called. Diagnosis is now more accurate, and certificates are more carefully filled up, hence fewer deaths are attributed to “old age.” “Fever” comprises typhoid or enteric fever, now the most important by far; typhus fever, which is still prevalent to some extent in Ireland, and lingers in the Irish quarters of Glasgow, Edinburgh, and Liverpool; and some less defined diseases numerically not very important. Fever kills males and females about equally, and at all ages, the two extremes of life suffering somewhat more severely. The percentage fall in the death-rate is very remarkable, being no less than 57 per cent, for each sex, the fall being spread over all ages, though old people gain most ; the number of “lives saved ” is no less than 6,188 males and 6,510 females yearly; the salvage being greatest under 5 years of age, but very considerable at each age below 75. It seems impossible to dissociate this great Saving of life from the operation of the Public Health Acts, and more especially the indirect results of this as shown in the proceedings of such bodies as the Sanitary Institute, the exhibitions of sanitary appliances under various auspices, 236 STUDIES IN STATIszycs CHAP. and other proofs that public attention has been drawn to these matters. The fall in the death-rate from fever is without doubt the great triumph of the sanitary reformers. Typhus has been driven out from place after place by measures taken to check overcrowding and want of ventilation, until it now lingers only in the lowest quarters of a few large towns. Things are not perfect yet, far from it; but they were once much worse, and that not so long ago. On the other hand, measures directed to improve drainage and water supply have been most successful in restraining enteric fever within comparatively narrow limits. Dropsy.—All that need be said about this is that in 1850 no less than 9,981, or 27 per cent., of the total deaths had this cause assigned, whereas in 1880 only 3,192, or 0.6 per cent., of the total deaths were so classed. This does not mean that fewer persons die of dropsy now than then, but that the dropsy itself is now more commonly attributed to its proximate cause—disease of the heart, kidneys, liver, or ovaries. In the tables “dropsy" is included under “Heart diseases,” but it has now ceased to play such an important part among the assigned causes of death as seriously to affect the correctness of the returns. Convulsions are included in the tables under brain diseases. Scarlet fever has diminished notably, but from its usually occurring in epidemics, which are possibly in- fluenced by meteorological conditions, it is not safe to draw conclusions as to the future. It is of course a disease of childhood, most of its victims falling before the age of puberty. In both small-poa, and diphtheria there has been a * Since 1880, diphtheria has shown a decided tendency to increase. tº xiv THE DECZINE IN THE DEA 7A-RATE 237 saving of life, but these diseases now cause such small mortality that their total extinction would only reduce the general death-rate by 0:2 per 1,000. yº º The diarrhoea figures are confused by the occurrence of the epidemic of Asiatic cholera in 1866. Diarrhoea kills mostly at the extremes of life, cholera has not this marked preference. This explains the fact that under diarrhoeal diseases the fall of the death-rate is greatest from 5 to 75. There is room for great improvement under this head. . . The mortality from measles has diminished notably, but whooping-cough has been stationary. Whooping- cough is much more fatal to girls than to boys. Measles causes nearly five times, and whooping-cough more than six times as many deaths as small-pox, while the amount of mischief to be attributed to these little-thought-of ailments in the way of impaired general health, permanent lung disease, and even blindness and deafness, will probably never be known. It would appear that as yet preventive medicine has failed to control these diseases; can this be because the people will not co-operate to put down diseases which affect only young children : Turning now to the other side of the account; first in importance come lung diseases. Like diseases of the brain, and in contrast with phthisis, they are most fatal in the first five years of life and after 45. Again, lung diseases are 21 per cent. more fatal to males than to females, but this difference does not apply to the ages 5–20, as boys do not appear to suffer more than girls. In the case of phthisis, it may be remembered, the mortality of females from 5 to 20 exceeds that of males at the same ages. Lung diseases have increased in the period under consideration, among males 13, among females 14 per cent. ; the in- crease being mainly in the first five years of life and after 238 - STUDYES IN STATISTICS - CHAP: 35. There is a slight fall among boys of 10–15, a more marked fall among girls and young women from 10 to 25. The annual “loss of lives” from the increased prevalence. of “lung diseases” amounts to 6,490 males and 5,404 females; of these 3,486 males and 2,557 females were under 5 years old, while 2,919 males and 2,952 females were aged 35 years and upwards. The extra deaths among women of 65 years of age and upwards amounted to 2,267 against 1,544 among males of like ages. Doubt- less at both extremes of life there has been a transference from such assigned causes as “atrophy" and “old age,” or “debility of age,” to bronchitis and other diseases of the lungs. Heart Diseases and Dropsy.—It is necessary to take these together, since Dr. Farr did so in the table which I have adopted as my standard. In the first period dropsy made up 25 per cent. of the whole, in the second period only 9 per cent. But, as in a large proportion of the cases (Dr. Haviland put it at three-fifths of the whole number), the dropsy was certainly caused by heart disease, the error due to grouping the two together is not so important as might at first sight appear. Females suffer from heart disease somewhat more than males, but in both cases the death-rate is much higher after 35 than before. The mortality of males has increased 14 per cent., of females only 11. In both cases there has been a notable fall at the earlier ages, but a con- siderable increase, greatest in males, after the age of 35. Whereas 344 male and 242 female lives have been saved before the age of 20, at all ages over 20 no less than 2,909 male lives and 2,363 female lives have been lost annually in the latter as compared with the former period in the tables. Corresponding with this increase is an increase (not shown in the tables) in deaths from xIV THE DECL/AVE //W 7'HE DEA 7TH-AEA TE 239 rheumatic fever, which is a most fruitful cause of heart disease. Brain Diseases.—These affect males considerably (21 per cent.) more than females; they are most fatal at the extremes of life. The mortality at all ages has not materially altered, but it is very different when the separate ages are considered. In the first five years the male death-rate has fallen 13 per cent., the female 15 per cent. This we know from other sources' to be very largely due to the fall in “convulsions.” In contrast with this, at all ages over 35 there is a rise among both males and females of from 5 to 22 per cent. On one hand 2,443 male children and 2,227 female children that would have died annually from diseases of the nervous system under the death-rate prevailing in 1861-70, now survive under the rates prevailing in 1876-80; but on the other hand at ages over 35 no less than 2,098 males and 2,078 females now die that would have survived, or died of some other cause under the former régime, Kidney diseases are in both sexes most fatal in middle and advanced life; they are about twice as fatal to men as to women. Female mortality has, however, increased nearly twice as much under this head as male, although the increase is very great in all cases, varying from 20 to 81 per cent. The total loss of life from increased renal disease amounts to 1,702 males and 1,417 females, mainly in middle and advanced life. Cancer, in contrast to renal disease, is twice as fatal to women as to men; it is rare in early life, but steadily increases in frequency from the age of 25 upwards. Cancer has increased 38 per cent. in males, 24 per cent. in females, the greater increase in males being probably due to the fact that cancer of the stomach and liver, 1 Forty-fourth Annual Report of Registrar-General, Table 33. 24O STUDIES IN STA TISTICS CHAP. which is commoner in men than Women, is much more difficult of diagnosis than cancer of the female breast or of the uterus. Hence improved medical skill affects the returns for it more. The loss of life due to the increased mortality from cancer amounts to 1,187 males and 1,661 females, of whom seven-eighths are above the age of 45. A recent writer" said he was convinced that the long- continued and steady increase of cancer was not apparent only, and accounted for by increased accuracy of diagnosis and registration, but was an undoubted fact; the cause is quite unknown, but must probably be sought in some abnormal circumstances of our artificial existence.” It should be remembered that very few, if indeed any, recover from this much-dreaded disease, and also that it chiefly attacks after the reproductive age is past. From these facts we may draw the consolation that if there are many killed, there are no wounded, and that although the tendency to cancer may be handed down to offspring, they are not born enfeebled in consequence of their parents' ailment. As regards the other diseases in the tables, I will only remark that the increased number of deaths from violence at the higher ages, accompanying diminished death-rates at the lower ages, is a curious fact that is difficult to explain. To make the various relations and changes above indicated more striking, I have constructed the summary Tables IIIA, IIIB, IWA, IWB, WI and IX,” showing the same * H. P. Dunn, F.R.C.S., in British Medical Journal, 1883, pp. 708, &c. . * See also an article, “The Recent Increase of Cancer,” by Dr. Herbert Snow, Nineteenth Century, July 1890. - 3 These tables are all obtained from tables IA and IB by calculation. XIV THE DEC/LAWE /AW THE DAEA TH-AEA 7TE 24. I facts as Tables I, II, V, VIII, but for three groups of ages only. First, all under 20 years of age, or the dependent period of childhood and youth ; second, active working life, the productive period, from 20 to 65; and third, the dependent period of old age, after 65 years. Mr. Humphreys, in his corresponding period, drew the line at 60 years; I could not have followed him exactly without great trouble. These short tables show firstly, that in both sexes the death-rates from “all causes” below 20 had decreased con- siderably, between 20 and 65 they had also decreased, but much less, whereas over 65 there was a very small increase. Secondly, the rates of decrease were largest among females, whereas the increase was largest among males. Thirdly, the most marked increase in the death-rates from the several causes was from diseases of the kidneys, more especially among females, and next from cancer in men. So that it would appear there is a tendency for the mortality of the two sexes from these causes to approximate. It is possible that increased drinking among women may account for some of this increased fatality from kidney diseases. Fourthly, the great decrease of mortality from fever at all ages is shown in a very striking manner. Fifthly, Table IX. shows conclusively that increased precision in diagnosis, and care in registration, will not account for all the increased deaths from diseases of the lungs, brain, heart, &c., since the increase under these heads greatly exceeds the decrease under “all other causes.” The same tables show in an equally striking manner that “phthisis” and “lung diseases" in the reports indicate, in the main at any rate, essentially different causes of death, since the fluctuations are in no way reciprocal. 242 * STUDIES IN STATISTICS - CHAP. After this analysis it is possible to consider the bearing of the facts ascertained on the following problems. Supposing that the last twenty years may be taken as a fair index of what we are to expect in the future, 7. e. that those causes of death which have increased in fatality will continue to do so, or remain stationary; and conversely, those which have decreased in fatality will either become stationary or continue to decrease— what will be the effect on— (1.) The duration of life (2.) The sex and age distribution of the population ? And (3.) The rate of increase of the population ? In the last case the question of emigration will have to be considered. (1.) Mr. Humphreys' paper, although appearing to do so, did not give a complete solution of the first problem, at least as far as a forecast of the future is considered. If an aggregate variable be made up of several com- ponent variables, which latter vary at different rates and in different directions, then, given two terms of a series, it is possible to get an approximation to subsequent terms by two different methods, viz. either a calculation from the known variations of the aggregate, or a similar cal- culation from the known variations of the components. To take as an instance the estimation of populations from the known increase in the interval between the last two censuses. The first method is that officially in use in this country, the largest available areas are taken for calculation. Probably this gives on the whole the best results, provided always that it is applied to a centre of population complete in itself with vacant space on all sides for expansion. Where these conditions are not XIV TA/AE DEC/LAWE ZAV ZAZE ZOAXA TH-A’A TE 243 fulfilled," a better result may in some cases be obtained by estimating separately for the constituent parts and adding these partial estimates together. It is of course possible in this second method to give undue importance to local changes of a special and possibly exceptional character, so that perhaps the best plan of all is to com- bine the two methods by taking into consideration the past actual and future possible growth of each ward or other district of which the area is composed. The same holds good with death-rates; the gross death-rate of either sex at a particular age is made up of a number of death-rates from different causes, some of which are falling, others rising, while others are stationary. It is therefore a point of special importance to remember that whereas a diminishing death-rate can only fall to zero, an increasing death-rate may conceivably rise indefinitely. This is well illustrated by the cases of fever and kidney diseases. In the aggregate no less than 12,698 fewer persons (in proportion to population) died from fever annually during 1876-80 than during the period 1861-70. But as the total number of annual deaths from this cause is now but 9,576, an equal further saving of life is no longer possible. On the other hand, there is no such obstacle to the mortality from kidney diseases rising again by 3,000, or indeed by 30,000 per annum. It is important therefore, in “looking ahead,” to remember that great saving of life can only be accom- plished where there is now heavy loss of life. Small-pox has happily been reduced by efficient vaccination within such narrow limits that if it were extinguished to-morrow, * A good instance is that of the county of Essex, whose peculiarity consists in the fact that it is contiguous to London along a considerable portion of its western boundary. Dr. John C. Thresh in Public Health, February 1890, p. 323. 244 STUDIES IN STATIsTics CHAP. the result would be trifling compared to a fall of 50 per cent. in the mortality from whooping-cough, or a fall of only 10 per cent. in lung diseases. In the period under consideration the greatest gain of life has been under fever, phthisis, Scarlet fever, diarrhoeal diseases, and “all other causes”; under all these headings there still remains a considerable margin for profit, although this is getting narrowed in the case of fever. Scarlet fever is practically confined to the young; phthisis has special incidence on youth and early working life, and is of all diseases that which is most destructive to the most valuable lives; fever attacks those of all ages, but it is more fatal at the early ages than phthisis; “all other causes” account for many deaths of both young and old. With the exception of the last, a continued diminution of deaths from any of these causes would tend to increase the duration of active life; in the case of “all other causes,” a great portion of the saving would mean only some prolongation of old age, which, as it would almost certainly be accompanied with increased vigour of the survivors, would be a benefit only in a degree less. On the other side of the account we have diseases of the lungs, heart, and kidneys, and cancer. The three last exact most victims in middle and late life, the lives cut off by them are therefore less valuable than those that fall to phthisis; lung diseases are extremely fatal to the young as well as to the old, so that they have a point of resemblance to the zymotic diseases. If all these diseases should continue to increase in fatality in like manner, the result on the duration of life would be in the case of the first three to cut short its later years, in the case of diseases of the lungs to cut it short at both ends. On the whole, balancing these results, we may safely say that if the individual causes of death alter in fatality XIV THE DECL/AVE JAV ZALE DEA 7TP/-AºA 7TE 245 in the future as they have done in the recent past, for a time the duration of life may continue to increase, but ultimately the tendency would be for more people to survive the dangers of childhood and adolescence, but fewer to reach old age. Useful life would not be greatly shortened, and as the proportion of persons of the repro- ductive age would be increased, the birth-rate would also, presumably, be increased. (2.) The Report of the Census of 1881 (vol. iv. pp. 22 and 23) calls especial attention to the importance of taking into consideration the constitution of a population as regards sex and age, before comparing its death-rate with that of another population. In illustration, the sex and age con- stitution of the urban and rural sanitary districts are contrasted, and it is remarked, “if we take the mean (1871-80) death-rates in England and Wales at each age- period as a standard, the death-rate in an urban popula- tion, as constituted above,' would be 20:40 per 1,000, while the death-rate in the rural population would be 22-83. Such would be their respective death-rates on the hypothesis that the urban districts and the rural districts were equally healthy. We know, however, as a matter of fact, that urban death-rates, instead of being lower than rural death-rates, are much higher. The difference of healthiness, therefore, between the two is much greater than the difference between their death-rates.” This is a most important passage, and expresses a truth not generally known, and when known not sufficiently dwelt upon. As the work of calculating thus the “normal” death-rate of a population is somewhat laborious, it would, I think, be of great service to medical officers of health 1 This is in reference to a table (Census, 1881, vol. iv. p. 22) showing the age and sex constitution (1) of London and the Urban Sanitary Districts in England and Wales, (2) of the remainder of the country. 246 STUDIES IN S7A 77S77CS - CHAP. and others, if the Registrar-General's Department would publish a table of factors by which the death-rates of the principal towns ascertained in the ordinary way could be reduced to the normal (e. g. in the circumstances given, the rural factor would be '93176, the urban factor 1-04275)." The age and sex constitution of the popula- tion of England and Wales has changed, though not to a very great extent. It would be interesting to know what influence these small changes have in themselves had upon the death-rate and birth-rate. Any one approaching the subject on a priori lines might well maintain that the agglomeration of human beings in towns affects a constantly increasing fraction of the people, and therefore since life in towns is neces- sarily less healthy than life in the country, the tendency would be for the death-rate to rise. The first proposition is undoubtedly true: the town population in 1851 was but 51 per cent. of the whole, in 1881 it was 59 per cent. ; the increase has been and appears likely to be continuous.” The second premise has appeared to be true hitherto, but nevertheless the conclusion has not followed. The explana- tion would seem to be that the increased attention paid to hygienic matters by the individual, the corporation, and the State, has more than counterbalanced the evils attendant upon density of population. This must not, however, be pushed too far ; the “sanitary” surroundings of many town populations are now superior to those of country populations, but yet the death-rates of these popu- lations remain higher than those prevalent in the country; whereas the above extract from the last census clearly shows that owing to peculiarities of age and sex constitu- * The Registrar-General did publish such factors within a few weeks after the reading of this paper. See Annual Summary for 1883, p. v. * Calculated from a table in Census of England and Wales, 1881, vol. iv. p. 9, - XIV THE DEC/L/AWE WAV 7AHE DEA TH-AEA TE 247 tion they should be lower. The increased mortality from cancer and several of the “local diseases,” the increase in lunacy (though this is not so great as it appears), the deterioration of eyesight, the unquestioned premature decay of the teeth of the rising generation, and to a much smaller extent the prevalence of premature baldness, con- vince me that the d priori argument is a sound one. There are conditions attendant on life in towns which no hygienic knowledge, no improved administration, not even a new municipal government for London, can wholly overcome. Some amount of degeneration of race appears inevitable, and in the United States of America, where all sociological phenomena are seen in more rapid evolution than here, it is said to be even already very evident. This seems to be a fitting place to meet an objection that will be brought forward by many; they will say—“One thing is plain, no Sanitary improvements, no amelioration of habits, will enable men and women to live for ever. The increased mortality from local diseases towards the end of life is the inevitable correlative to the diminished mortality in infancy.” There is a fallacy of time inherent in this objection. The total period in review from the first year to the last extends over only twenty years, while the average interval, from the middle year of the first period to the middle year of the second, is only twelve and a half years. The recent fall in the death-rate of children under 10 did not begin until the year 1867,” so that but few of the extra survivors could have attained their majority by the middle of the second period, far less could they have added some thousands annually to the deaths of persons aged 65 and upwards. Our records do not go 1 Mr. Noel A. Humphreys has recently shown that it is very doubtful whether lunacy is increasing at all in this country. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, vol. liii. p. 201. - * Forty fourth Annual Report of Registrar-General, Tables 24, 25. 248 STUDIES IAW S 7.4 77S77CS - CHAP. back further than 1838. We know that during the five years 1841-45' low mortality prevailed at ages over 25, and during the first five years of life. The younger adults of those days, if now surviving, would be old men to-day ; the children then under 5 would by our second period be aged 35–40. The recent census shows, it is true, a slight excess of females at ages 35–45, but males are a trifle in defect. But all this would prove nothing unless we assume, as is perhaps reasonable, that the extra survivors are more delicate than the average, for the death-rates per thousand living have increased at the later ages. Any way this loss is small compared with what we have gained at other ages, so that the balance in our favour remains large. Table VII* shows for childhood, working life, and old age the relative incidence of the various causes of death upon males and females. This table, read together with Table VI, shows which sex gains most by each change in the death-rate. Thus, in childhood and youth, young girls suffer especially (as compared with boys) from phthisis, whooping-cough, diphtheria, fever, and heart disease, and all these have diminished in fatality. On the other hand, boys suffer especially (as compared with girls) from violence, kidney diseases, brain diseases, “all other causes,” lung diseases, and to a less degree from diarrhoeal diseases, small-pox, measles, and Scarlatina. Of these, lung and kidney diseases are increasing in fatality, the rest are declining, the net results being that girls gain more than boys in the proportion of 7 to 6. During working life, from cancer alone do women lose more than men, but here the loss is more than double, and cancer is increasing rapidly, though the rate of * Forty-fourth Annual Report of Registrar-General, Tables 24, 25. - * Calculated from tables IVA and IVB. XIV THE DECL/AVE WAV 7"HAE Z)A. A TH-AEA TE 249 increase is more rapid in the case of males than in the case of females; men, on the other hand, suffer more especially from violence (5 to 1), kidney diseases, lung diseases, phthisis, brain diseases, and fever. Of these, diseases of the kidneys, lungs, and brain are all increasing, the others are diminishing, but the net result shows that females gain more than males in the proportion of 7 to 3. In old age women again suffer from cancer more than men, and cancer is increasing in fatality, but on the other hand old men suffer excessively from kidney diseases (3 to 1), violence, phthisis, Small-pox, and fever; and of these, the first two are increasing. In the net result the mortality of both old men and old women is increasing, but the death-rate of old men three times as fast as that of old women. It is quite plain that the recent fall in the death-rate favours the accumulation of surplus women, if one may be allowed such an expression, and should the change of mortality go on in the same direction the rate of accumula- tion will be increased. Several other factors are working to the same end. (a.) Forty years ago for every 100 female children, 105.3 male children were born, but now the number is only 103.9." (b.) Emigration always removes an excess of males; thus, during the six years 1877-82, no less than 349,666 adult Englishmen left this country, but they were accompanied by only 179,869 adult Englishwomen, so that the men were 169,797 in excess, or nearly 2 to 1.” Emigration is, however, to a great extent balanced by immigration. In the ten years between the two last censuses the net result of migration amounted to a loss to this country of 123,467 males and 40,840 females, the excess of males being 82,627.” 1 Forty-fourth Annual Report of Registrar-General, Table 13. 2 Board of Trade Return of Emigration and Immigration for 1882. 8 Report on Census, 1881, vol. iv. p. 15. 25O STUDIES IN STA TISTICS - CHAP. & (c.) Independently of recent changes women live longer than men." The combined result of the operation of all these factors is less than might have been expected. In 1851 there were in this country 104.2 females to every 100 males. This proportion has risen gradually till it now amounts to 105.5 to 100.” As this excess of women is a common topic of con- versation, I have drawn up, in the interest of the ladies, the following table, based on a longer table in the Census Report (vol. iii. p. v)— TABLE B.—SHOWING EXCESS OF MALES OR FEMALES AT DIFFERENT GROUPS OF AGES, TOGETHER WITH THEIR CONJUGAL CONDITIONS. Males. Females. Age and Condition. Numbers. Excess. Numbers. Excess. Children under 15 ... 4,728,466 gºmº. 4,740,125 II,659 Unmarried 15–35 ... 2,704,062 | 72,629, 2,631,433 º -- 93 35–45 ... 195,427 &=== 233,820 38,393 52 over 45 ... 200,255 emº 292, 151 91,896 Married 15–35 tº º ſº 1,469,040 * 1,778,237 || 3:09, 197 ,, over 35 to tº e 2,907,858 248,133| 2,659,725 * Widowed, all ages ... 434,794 * 999,046 || 564,252 Total ... ... 12,639,902 || 320,762 || 13,334,537 | 1,015,397 Balance, excess of females * 694,635 ºmº •ºmº- The discrepancy between married men and women, some 60,000 more married women than men being returned, admits of ready explanation. Many men at sea, in the army in different parts of the world, in the colonies, or travelling, had left wives at home. Some few men who were really married no doubt found it con- venient to return themselves as unmarried; probably a * English Life Table, No. 3, pp. 36–39. * Report on Census, 1881, vol. iv. p. 15. XIV 7A/E ZOA, CZWNE /W THE DEATH-AEA 7TE 25 I considerably larger number of women did the reverse. Taking no account of these, the table shows that the total excess of females, amounting to close upon 700,000, com- prises 564,252 widows, a simply appalling number whether viewed from a sentimental or an economic standpoint. But this is only the excess of widows over widowers. The total number of widows is very little short of a million (999,046). The “really old maids” number only 292,151, or 91,896 more than the old bachelors; there remain 233,820 who may be termed “rather old maids.” The 11,659 female children in excess correspond to some extent to the 72,629 young men in excess, since women marry earlier than men. (3.) There remains for consideration the effect of the present or future decline of the death-rate upon the increase of the population. But little need be said on this head. It is obvious that if fewer die, more will survive, and pro tonto the population will be increased. But there is more in it than this. Clearly, everything depends upon the ages at death. It is possible to conceive two popula- tions with equal general death-rates, but increasing at very different rates. If the mortality fall chiefly on the earlier ages, while those who reach maturity live on to a ripe old age, a slowly increasing population will result. On the other hand, if there be a high birth-rate, accom- panied with high death-rates in middle and late life, the population will increase much more rapidly. The birth- rate must mainly depend upon the proportion of the population living between the ages of 20 and 40. Now what all the figures show is this —death-rates in early life falling, in late life rising; so that the population is increased in two ways, directly, by the diminution of deaths, indirectly, by the proportionate increase of births; or perhaps it would be more correct to say “breeding 252 S 7TUD/ES WAV STA 77S 7/CS CHAP. capacity,” since the birth-rate is largely influenced by the marriage-rate, which in its turn is affected by commerce. It should, however, be borne in mind that emigration, just now very active, by removing chiefly those of the breeding age, and to a less degree by increasing the disproportion of the sexes, tends to counteract this rise in the birth-rate, so that emigration checks population in two ways. The chief inferences which I think may be fairly drawn from the facts under review, are— (1.) The decline of the death-rate in recent years is chiefly to be attributed to a diminished number of deaths assigned to fever and phthisis, and, to a somewhat less degree, to Scarlet fever, diarrhoeal diseases, small-pox, diphtheria, and measles. (2.) There is also a great diminution under the heading “all other causes,” but this is largely to be explained by improved diagnosis and greater precision in filling in certificates of the cause of death. (3.) There has been coincidently with a fall in the general death-rate a considerable increase under certain causes of death, notably diseases of the lungs, heart, and kidneys, and cancer. (4.) The figures prove that only a portion of the increase noted under the above headings can be explained by improvement in the returns. There has been a real, not merely an apparent, increase. More especially, the increase under lung diseases will not explain the fall under phthisis. (5.) The gain under phthisis is more important than the loss under cancer, kidney diseases, and some others, since the lives saved are more valuable than those lost; also in the case of phthisis parents beget children when far advanced in disease, a fact greatly to be regretted. XIV 7"HE DAEC/LAWE WAV THE DAEA TH-RA 7TE 253 (6.) Preventive medicine should be especially directed against those diseases which kill the largest numbers, such as “local diseases" generally, the ill-defined diseases of infancy, and phthisis; while among the zymotic diseases, diarrhoea and scarlet fever, whooping-cough and measles require especial attention at the present time. (7.) Since the falling causes of death can only fall to zero, but the rising causes may rise indefinitely, the present changes may conceivably in course of time lead to a rise in the general death-rate. (8.) The tendency appears to be for useful working life to be increased, but for old age to be slowly shortened. (9.) The increased mortality in the latter years of life, and such phenomena as the increase of defective sight and rapid deterioration of the teeth, probably result from the increasing proportion of the population living under the artificial conditions of town life. (10.) The present increased mortality at the higher ages cannot possibly be explained by the recent diminished mortality at the beginning of life, even on the supposition that the survivors are more delicate. (11.) The changes that are taking place in the in- cidence of mortality, almost all aid the other causes which contribute to the great superabundance of women in England and Wales. (12.) They also tend to increase population both by diminution of deaths, and increase, positively and relatively, of births. In conclusion, if I have made mistakes in my figures, or if I have been over-ready in connecting cause and effect, I must ask you to make allowance for the complexity of a problem which is bound up with so many of the infinite relations of civilized life, an equation in which the number of unknown quantities is itself unknown. 254. STUD/ES IN STAT/ST/CS CHAP. TABLE IA—England and Wales. MALES. Deaths from Various Causes at Eleven Groups of Ages. Averages of the Five Years 1876-80, compared with Averages of the Ten Years 1861-70. All Ages. 0— 5— 10– 15— 20– 1861-70. 1876-80. H861-70. 1876-80. I'61-70. "76-80.[61-70 '76-80 ||61-70.”76-80 ||61-70.”(6-80. Small-pox ... © tº 4 * * 1,893 1,128 956 306 189 || 119 64 69 93 85; 164) 135 Measles ... * - - e = 4,784 || 4,950 4,434 4,589 290 299 3O 32 IO 7 6 7 Scarlet fever * & tº ... Io,537 || 8,720 6,860 5,765 2,799 || 2,315|| 534 382 152 112 72 51 Diphtheria ... tº e - tº e 1,847 | 1,421 I, O94 785 || 427 | 402 122 || 104 59 33 32 18 Fever & e - * 9,330 4,764 I,779 853 1,112 || 582. 709 || 427 | 804 509|| 746 504 Whooping-cough ... - 5,071 6,027 4,906 || 5,833 I55 181 6 7 I 3 I - Diarrhoeal diseases ... 11,937 11,246 || 9,220 9,513 2O2 89 84 23 62 19 82 26 Phthisis ... ... . . 25,696 26,061 | 1,431 | 1,304 || 544|| 520' 690 | 685| 2,235 | 1,914|| 3,519 3,093 Lung diseases ... ... I 38,479 || 51,283 || 17,366 28,935 | 698| 851] 227| 268 322 | 895 474 557 Brain , , e e a ... I 32,001 || 36,867 || 16,466 | 16,947 754 935, 382 462. 379 || 433 4or 408 Heart diseases and dropsy 13,653 | 18,340 576 477 || 295 || 248. 287| 304|| 319|| 383. 312 383 Kidney diseases ... ... 4,382 6,766 I68 334 Io8 || 191 74 109 Ioz 147 124 181 Cancer º º º tº tº º • - 2,542 4,118 I9 27 IO 12 9 12 2O 25 25 33 Violence ... * * * ... 12,244 || 13,257 2,133 2,251 758| 762, 864 746 876|| 870. 921 945 All other causes ... e 71,553 || 74,923 || 38,361 40,822 || 1,942 2,049. 1,004 || 1,080 858 951 78o 811 All causes ... * * * ... 245,949 269,871 || IoS,769 113,741 Io,283 || 9,555 5,086, 4,655 6,292 5,886 7,659| 7,152 25– 35— 45— 55— 65– 75— '61-70. '76-80. '61-70. '76-80. I’61-70.[76-80.61-70.”76-80.61-70.”76-80.61-70.”6-80. Small-pox ... ... - G 2O4 203 I16 115 62 61 29 22 I2 9 4. 4 Measles ... s e º º e 6 7 5 5 2 3 I I — - - a- Scarlet fever tº º e º 'º 7I 55 27 29 I4 7 5 3 2 I I | – Diphtheria • * 4 tº º º - - 36 22 24 21 2O 14 I8 13 II 8 4. I Fever a & © tº a tº • I, OSI 633 94o 438 817 338|| 698 255 484, 164 I90 61 Whooping-cough ... - a I 1 I I a- *= - - * * - I Diarrhoeal diseases - a 2O7 71 243 111 305 || 159|| 411 282 558 436|| 563 517 Phthisis ... ... ... 6,109 || 6,164 || 4,940 5,509 || 3,490 3,906| 1,987| 2,197 667 | 731 84 || 88 Lung diseases ... ... 1,283 1,589 || 2,042 2,697 || 3,164.4,041 || 4,572 5,879 5,005 || 6,424; 3,326|| 4,652 Brain , s is ºn ... 1,050 | 1,171 || 1,591 | 1,940 || 2,029| 2,476] 2,811 || 3,80S 3,609 || 4,822, 2,529 || 3,465 Heart diseases and dropsy 992 | 1,176 || 1,463 2,170 1,977| 2,703| 2,760 3,931|| 3,042| 4,254, 1,630 || 2,311 Kidney diseases ... .. 355 532 481 737 595 || 9331 770 1,260. 955 | 1,431 650 911 Cancer ... ... ... 9I 127 244 352 || 487 758|| 727 | 1,213 619. 1,087. 291 472 Violence ... ... ... 1,617 | 1,738 || 1,551 | 1,693 || 1,405 || 1,603| 1,138|| 1,382| 664| 843| 317| 424 All other causes ... ... 1,700 1,793 || 2,302 || 2,486 || 2 96o 3,115|| 3,955, 4, 191| 6,354|| 6,201 |11,337|11,474 All causes ... * - - ... 14,773 || 15,282 || 15,97o 18,254 |17,327 20,11719,882 24,437|21,982 (26,41120,92624,381 XIV TAZE DECL/AWE /W 7'HE Z) EA TH-AEA TE 255 TABLE IB.-England and Wales. FEMALES. Deaths from Various Causes at Eleven Groups of Ages. Averages of the Five Years 1876-80, compared with Averages of the Ten Years 1861-70. g- All Ages. 0— 5— 10— lö— 20– 1861-70. 1876-80 |1861-70. 1876-80. I'61-70.”76-80. 61-70.|’76-80.61-70.|'76-80.61-70.”76-80. Small-pox ... ... ..] I,596 930 932 287 || 176 | 103 63 71 83 | 84 || 97 | I 10 Measles ... e - © ... 4,626 || 4,709 || 4,219 || 4,286 || 321 | 844 36 31 13 11 IO 9 Scarlet fever ... ... Io,250 || 8,321 6,486 || 5,437 || 2,711 || 2,188 || 6or 374. 162 106 Io'7 73 Diphtheria ... ... ... 2,099 || 1,628 1,121 814 || 566 506 186|| 141 || 63 47 || 42 27 Fever e e º & © tº tº e 9, 599 4,812 I,824 836 1,221 664, 897 536 943 569 || 730 428 Whooping-cough ... ...I. 6,209 7,265 5,961 7,000 || 230 244 I 2 12 3 2. I 2 Diarrhoeal diseases ... 11, c83 || 10,152 || 8,052 8,220 || 203 || 104 7o 2S 62 22 l IO2 40 Phthisis ... tº tº e ... 27,247 25,030 || 1,364 | 1,252 || 6oz 587|1,175 | 1,156|3,220 2,802 |4,olo 3,445 Lung diseases ... ... 33,481 44,768 || 14,510 | 19,744 || 695 || 850, 247 272. 317 | 881 || 388 || 410 |Brain 2 3 & 4 tº ... 27,574 32,123 12,834 12,975 681 812. 358 444 || 404 444 || 411 429 Heart diseases and dropsy. I5, 192 || 19,907 5O3 410 265 265 322 || 386 353 419' 394 || 474 Kidney diseases ... ... 1,994 || 3,751 II 2 239 61 | 118, 49 92 66|| 12 ro3| 179 Cancer ... ... ... 5,740 | 8,875 I9 27 9 || 12 8 || 12 18 23| 33 || 33 clºth and childbed 3,525 || 3,567 tº- -º - ** smº 3 167 | 164|| 64o 660 €Ver . . . tº E & i. Violence ... * g & & 8 4,140 || 4,750 1,667 1,805 || 398 || 350 151 147 152 151 || 12o 136 All other causes ... ... 69,156 || 71,154 || 31,757 || 33,242 I,661 | 1,760 867 996 || 829 871 || 858 837 All causes tº g tº ... 233,501 |251,242 91,361 96,574 || 9,800 8,902 || 5,042 |4,701 || 6,855 6,167 8,046 || 7,292 25— 35– 45— 55— 65– 75– '61-70. '76-80. '61-70. '76-80. [61-70.[76-80.[61-70.[76-80.[61-70.[76-80.[61-70.[76-s0. Small-pox ... tº gº tº e & 4 II6 125 64 84 3O 38 I6 I9 6 6 3 3 Measles ... tº ſº tº • * * I5 15 7 7 3 3 I 2 I f — * Scarlet fever tº gº tº a e I2O 98 42 39 I2 7 6 8 2 1 I — Diphtheria ... ... ... 47 33 28 26 21 | 12 || 14 | 12 8 8 3 2 Fever e e ºl tº gº ºn ... 1,061 621 903 409 756 || 309|| 626 232 44o 154|| 198 54 Whooping-cough ... tº º I 2 I 1 - I — I — --- *Eº * Diarrhoeal diseases tº $ tº 281 107 291 122 290 146|| 416 282 615 476|| 7or 605 Phthisis ... tº e ſº ... 7,248 6,409 || 4,987 4,824 || 2,746 2,640 || 1,348 1,353 || 473 || 477 74 85 Lung diseases ... ... 1,014 | 1,170 | 1,445 | 1,867 || 2,242 || 2,718 || 3,836 4,966 || 5,008 || 6,762 |3,779 || 5,678 Brain , , sº ſº º 9II 973 || 1,189 1,470 || 1,750 2,321 || 2,621 3,638 || 3,558 || 4,821 || 2,857 3,796 Heart diseases and dropsy. 1,044 | 1,270 | 1,523 2,005 |2,096 || 2,702|3,11o |4,202|3,602 || 4,905 || 1,980 || 2,869 Kidney diseases ... ... 26o 441 3II 544 || 3o4 563 332 | 666. 276 542 12o 246 Cancer “ “ . .'; 27o 333 860 | 1,226 1,482 2,062 1,502 2,270 || 1,073 || 1,673 || 466 || 704 & * Il il +. *...****}| sa, 1,588 || 1,136 1,156 || 36|| 51| – | – || – || – || – || – Violence ... tº ſº tº gº tº s 224 275 245 326 273 || 356 262 || 380 274 || 385 374 439 All other causes ... ... 1,897 1,930 2,357 2,479 2,923 || 3,129 || 4,046 || 4,298 || 7,121 || 7,02314,840:14,589 All causes ... & e : ... 16,033 || 15,335 15,389 16,585 ||14,986 *Feast 22,32422,457 *Esº 29,071 256 CHAP. STUDIAES IN STA 7TISTICS TABLE IIA.—England and Wales. MALES. Death-Rates per 100,000 Living at each Age, from Various Causes, at Eleven Groups of Ages. Averages of the Five Years 1876-80, compared with Averages of the Ten Years 1861-70. All Ages. 0– 5— 10— 15– 20– 1861-70. 1876-80. 1861-70.|1876-80.161-70.|’76-80.[61-70.[76-80.[61-70.|”76-80. 61-70.[76-80. Small-pox ... ... I8 9 66 18 15 8 6 5 9 7 18 || 13 Measles - - 46 40 307 270 23 20 3 3 I I I I Scarlet fever tº s tº IOI 71 475 339 222 | 153 47 28 I5 9 8 5 Diphtheria ... ... 18 12 76 46 34 27 II 8 6 3 4. 2 Fever © tº º 90 39 I23 5 88 38 || 62 31 79 42 82 47 Whooping-cough ... 49 49 339 343 I2 12 I 1 - * - -º- Diarrhoeal diseases II5 92 638 559 I6 6 7 2 6 2 9 2 Phthisis ... 247 213 99 77 43 34 6I 47 || 219 || 157 || 388 2SS Lung diseases 369 419 I,2OI 1,406 55 56 2O 19 32 32 52 52 IBrain 3? e tº tº tº e - 3O7 301 I, I39 996 6o 62 34 34 37 35 44 38 Heart diseases and dropsy 131 150 4o 28 23 I6 25 22 3I 31 35 3ij Ridney diseases 42 55 I2 20 9 I3 7 8 IO 12 I4 17 Cancer º, º ſº 24 34 I I I l I I 2 2 3 3 Violence ... © tº º II.8 108 148 133 6o 50 76 55 86 71 ro2 88 All other causes ... 686 612 2,652 2,395 || 154 135 85 79 83 78 85 75 All causes ... 2,361 2,204 || 7,316 || 6,681 815 631 446 || 343 || 616 || 482 | 845 | 667 25– 35— 45— 55— 65– 75– '61-70. ’76-80. '61-70. ’76-80. I'61-70.|’76-80.61-70.|’76-80.61-70.”76-80.61-70.[76-80. Small-pox ... • a tº I4 12 IO 8 7 6 5 3 4 2 3 3 Measles - - - - * - - * - - - * Scarlet fever 5 3 2 2 2 1 I || – I — I — Diphtheria ... 2 I 2 2 2 I 3 2 3 2 3 I Fever tº a tº & © $ 7o 36 79 32 90 33 II6 36 147 43 I49 43 Whooping-cough ... - * * * - - * - - - - I Diarrhoeal diseases I4 4 2O 8 34 16 68 40 169 || 114 || 443 361 Phthisis • * * 409 350 417 402 386 385 330 || 313 202 || 192 66 62 Lung diseases ... • * * 86 90 I72 197 35o || 398 || 759 || 837 || 1,519 | 1,685 2,617 | 3.252 Brain 33 • e e c. * * 7o 66 I34 142 224 244 467 || 542 || 1,095 | 1,265 I,990 || 2,422 Heart diseases and dropsy 67 67 I23 158 219 || 266 || 458 560 923 || 1,116 1,283 | 1,616 Kidney diseases ... 24 30 4I 54 66|| 92 || 128 180 || 290 || 375 || 511 637 Cancer ... 6 7 2I 26 54 75 121 173 188 285 230 || 330 Violence ... Io8 99 I31 124 155 | 158 189 || 197 202 || 221 249 296 All other causes ... II5 102 I94 176 328 306 || 655 598 || 1,926 1,628.8,919 8,020 All causes ... 990 867 1,346 1,331 1,917 | 1,981 || 3,300 || 3,481 || 6,669 6,928|16,46417,044 XIV 257 THE DECLIME IN 7HE DEATH-RATE TABLE IIB.-England and Wales. FEMALES. Death-Rates per Ioo,000 Living at each Age, from Various Causes, at Eleven Groups of Ages. 1876-80, compared with Averages of the Ten Years 1861-70. Averages of the Five Years All Ages. 0– 5— 10– 15– 20– 1861-70. [1876-80, 1861-70. 1876-80. I'61-70.”76-80. 61-70.”6-80.61-70.|"76-80.I'61-70.|'76-80. Small-pox ... ... I5 7 65 17 I4 7 5 5 8 7 IO 9 Measles ... ... 42 36 293 251 25 23 3 2 I 1. I l Scarlet fever 93 64 45O 319 || 215 143 53 28 I6 9 III 6 Diphtheria ... I9 13 78 48 45 33 17 10 6 4 4. 2 Fever tº tº º 88 37 127 49 97 44 8o 40 9I 46 72 36 Whooping-cough ... 57 56 4I4 410 I8 16 I I * *-*. *º- {-º-º: Diarrhoeal diseases IOI 79 559 482 I6 7 6 2 6 2 IO 8 Phthisis 248 194 95 73 || 48 || 39 || Ios | 86 || 311 227 || 397 || 293 Lung diseases 305 347 I, OO7 1,157 55 56 22 20 3I 27 38 35 Brain , , . . . . . . . 251 249 891 761 || 54 || 53 || 32 33 || 39 || 36 || 41 || 87 Heart diseases and dropsy I39 154 35 24 2I 17 29 29 34 34 39 40 Kidney diseases .. 18 29 8 l4 5 8 4. 7 6 10 IO I5 Cancer 52 65 I 2 I l I I 2 2 3 8 hildbi g cºrºna **) 32 28 — — | – || – || – || – || 16 || 13 || 63 || 56 Violence ... tº º tº 38 37 II6 106 32 23 I3 II. I5 12 I2 12 All other causes ... 630 551 2,204 || 1,948 || 130 115 77 73 8o 70 85 78 All causes 2,128 1,946 || 6,343 5,661 || 776 585 || 448 || 348 || 662 500 || 796 621 25— 35— 45– 55— 65– 75– '61-70. ’76-80. I’61-70. ’76-80. I’61-70.”6-80.61-70.|"5-80,'6r-7o.”76-80. '61-70. "76-80. Small-pox ... 7 7 5 6 3 8 2 2 I I I 1 Measles I I I I &=s $Eº smº sº * *º cºmme * Scarlet fever 7 5 3 3 I l I | - I | - I º Diphtheria ... 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 I Fever a e s º º º 64 32 71 28 79 28 || 96 30 || 115 34 I2O 29 Whooping-cough ... tºº tºº tº- tººs *º sº * > tº- *g wº- e- - Diarrhoeal diseases 17 6 23 8 3O 13 64 36 || 161 || 106 426 324 Phthisis 38 834 390 327 285 237 || 207 || 173 || '124 106 45 46 Lung diseases 61 61 II3 126 233 || 244 || 586 634 || 1,311 |1,505 || 2,296 || 3,045 Brain , , # s tº gº sº ºf 55 51 93 100 182 | 208 || 402 || 464 || 931 | 1,073 || 1,736 || 2,035 Heart diseases and dropsy 63 66 II9 136 218 243 || 476 || 536 || 943 | 1,091 1,203 | 1,588 Kidney diseases I6 23 24 37 32 51 || 51 | 85 72 | 121 73 || 132 Cancer tº it is tº e ºn I6 17 67 83 154 185 || 230 || 290 281 372 283 878 Childbirth and childbed sº sº º * fever e is ſº 92 80 89 78 6 5 || – * Violence ... & º º tº as a I4 14 I9 22 28 32 4O 49 72 86 227 235 All other causes ... II5 101 184 166 303 280 || 62o 548 ||1,866 |1,563 || 9,015 7,828 All causes 969 800 || 1,203 1,123 1,556 |1,531 |2,777 |2,849 |5,88o |6,060 15,428 |15,587 258 CHAP. STUD/ES //V S 7.4 7/S 7TWCS TABLE IIIA.—England and Wales. MALES. Deaths from Various Causes during Childhood and Youth, Working-Life, and Old Age. Averages of the Five Years 1876-80, compared with Averages of the Ten Years 1861-70. Ages 0—20. 20—65. 65—. 1861-70. 1876-80. 1861-70. 1876-80. 1861-70. 1876-80. Small-pox ... I, 3O2 579 575 536 I6 13 Measles 4,764 || 4,927 2O 23 &= - - Scarlet fever IO,345 8,574 189 145 3 1 Diphtheria I,702 || 1,324 I3O 88 I5 9 Fever tº e & © - 4,404 || 2,371 4,252 2,168 674 225 Whooping-cough ... 5,068 6,024 3 2 - l Diarrhoeal diseases 9,568 9,644 I,248 649 I, I2 I 953 Phthisis 4,900 || 4,373 || 20,045 20,869 75 I 819 Lung diseases 18,613 25,444 || II,535 | 14,763 || 8,331 || 11,076 Brain 2 3 e e e 17,981 | 18,777 7,882 9,803 || 6, 138 8,287 Heart diseases, &c. I,477 1,412 7,504 || 10,363 || 4,672 6,565 Kidney diseases 452 781 2,325 3,643 1,605 || 2,342 Cancer 58 76 I, 574 2,483 9Io | 1,559 Violence 4,631 4,629 || 6,632 || 7,361 981 | 1,267 All other causes ... 42, 165 44,902 || II,697 | 12,346 || 17,691 17,675 All causes ... 127,430 | 133,837 || 75,61 I 85,242 || 42,908 || 50,792 TABLE IIIB.-England and Wales. FEMALEs. Deaths from Various Causes during Childhood and Youth, Working-Life, and Old Age. Averages of the Five Years 1876-80, compared with Averages of the Ten Year's 1861-70. Ages 0—20. 20—65. 65—. 1861-70.| 1876-80.| 1861-70. 1876-80. 1861-70. 1876-80. Small-pox ... I, 254 545 323 376 9 9 Measles 4,589 || 4,672 36 36 I 1 Scarlet fever 9,960 8,100 287 220 3 I Diphtheria I,936 | 1,508 I52 110 II 10 Feyer . ... * - e. 4,885 2,605 || 4,076 1,999 638 208 Whooping-cough ... 6,206 || 7,258 3 7 * - Diarrhoeal diseases 8,387 8,374 I,380 697 I,316 || 1,081 Phthisis 6,361 || 5,797 || 20,339 18,671 547 562 Lung diseases 15,769 || 21,197 || 8,925 | 11,131 || 8,787 | 12,440 Brain . , & e a 14,277 || 14,675 || 6,882 | 8,831 || 6,415 || 8,617 Heart diseases, &c. 1,443 | 1,480 || 8, 167 || 10,653 || 5,582 || 7,774 Kidney diseases 288 570 | 1,310 2,393 396 788 Cancer 54 74 || 4, 147 5,924 || 1,539 || 2,377 Childbirth, &c. 167 167 || 3,358 || 3,400 *º- - Violence 2,368 2,453 || I, 124 | 1,473 648 824 All other causes .. 35, II4 36,869 || 12,081 | 12,673 || 21,961 || 21,612 All causes ..] II.3,058 || 116,344 || 72,590 78,594 || 47,853 || 56,304 XIV 7 HE DECL//VE IN THE ZOEA TH-AEA 7TAE 259 TABLE IVA-England and Wales. MALES. Death-rates per 100,000 Living at each Age, from Various Causes during Childhood and Youth, Working- Life, and Old Age. Averages of the Five Years 1876-80, compared with Averages of the Ten Years i861-70. Ages ... ... ... 0—20 | 20—65. 65—. 1861-70. isºsol 1861-70, 1876-80. 1861-70. 1876-80. Small-pox... gº tº tº ë e º 27 I0 II 9 4. 3 Measles ... tº º & ge & e 98 85 cºm * tº-º-º-º: e-ºm- Scarlet fever tº & tº ſº e 2 I 3 148 4. 3 I *-tº- Diphtheria º ºg & tº º 35 23 3 2 3 2 Fever tº º ſº gº tº º * g e 90 41 84 37 I48 43 Whooping-cough ... e e is IO4 104 *= &= - tºmº tº- Diarrhoeal diseases e º º I97 166 25 11 245 182 Phthisis ... tº g tº & ſº IOI 76 394 352 I64 156 Lung diseases ... ſº tº s 382 439 227 249 I,824 2,113 Brain , , tº tº º e º º 369 324 I55 166 I,344 | 1,581 Heart diseases, &c. tº tº e 3O 24 I47 175 || 1,023 1,252 Kidney diseases ... tº gº & 9 14 46 62 35 I 447 Cancer ... tº $ tº tº º º I 1 3I 42 I99 297 Violence ... tº e e tº ºn º 95 80 I3O 124 2I5 242 All other causes ... tº s e 866 774 228 207 || 3,874 3,370 All causes ... ...] 2,617 2,309 I,485 1,439 || 9,395 9,688 TABLE IVB.—England and Wales. FEMALEs. Death-rates per 100,000 Living at each Age, from Various Causes during Childhood and Youth, Working-Life, and Old Age. Averages of the Five Years 1876-80, compared with Averages of the Ten Years 1861-70. Ages ... ... ... 0—20 20—65. 65—. 1861-70. 1876-80. 1861-70. 1876-80. 1861-70. 1876-80. Small-pox... tº gº tº tº gº & 26 9 6 6 2 2 Measles ... * @ tº gº º 94. 80 I 1 =º tºm- Scarlet fever & g tº tº G & 2O5 139 5 3 * gº- Diphtheria it tº gº tº º a 4O 26 3 2 2 2 Fever tº º º tº º ſº § tº , IOO 45 73 31 117 33 Whooping-cough... tº º tº I28 125 * * tº-sº * Diarrhoeal diseases tº e º I73 144 25 11 24I 170 Phthisis ... tº is tº * - e. I3 I 100 366 289 IOO 88 Lung diseases ... tº º ſº 324. 365 I6I 172 1,608 | 1,956 Brain , g tº gº is ſº º 294 253 I24 137 I, I'74 || 1,355 Heart diseases, &c. tº º e 3O 26 I47 165 I, O2.I 1,222 Kidney diseases ... tº º is 6 10 24. 37 73 124 Cancer ... tº e e tº gº • I 1 75 92 281 374 Childbirth, &c. ... ... 3 3 60 | 58 || – || – Violence ... tº dº is tº tº e 49 42 2O 23 II9 130 All other causes ... tº gº & 721 634 215 193 || 4,017 3,398 All causes ... ... 2,325 2,002 I,305 1,215 || 8,755 8,854 26o CHAP. STUDIES IN STA 77S. TVCS TABLE W.A.-Fngland and Wales. MALES... Percentage Fall, or Rise in the Death-Rates from Various Causes at Eleven Groups of Ages. Aver- ages of the Five Years 1876-80, compared with Averages of the Ten Years 1861-70. All || 0— 5— 10—15—20—25–35–45—155—|65–75– Ages Small-pox ...|-49-73|–47 – 9|–23–30 – 16 – 14 – 12|-35|-39 – 3 Measles ... ...] – 12– 12 – 14 – 8|-33] ... . ... . ... . ... . ... . ... . ... Scarlet fever ...|-30–29–31|–40|–38–40–34 – 9 ... . ... . ... . ... Diphtheria ...]—34–39 – 22–28–53 – 51–50–25–36 –37 – 39|- 75 Fever e e º ...]—57–59 – 56|–50–47|–43 –49 – 60 – 63|–69 – 71|– 71 Whooping-coug ..]+ Il-F 1 - 2 ... . . . . . ... . ... . ... . ... . . . . . ... I ... Diarrhoeal diseases ..] – 20 – 12 – 63|–77| – 74 – 73|–71|– 60 – 53 – 41|–32 – 18 Phthisis ...] – 14–23 – 20 – 23 – 28 – 26 – 15 – 4 ... |– 5 – 5 – 7 Lung diseases ... ..|+ 13]+ 17|+ 2 - 3 + 3 − 1 + 5|+|14|+|14|+|10|+ 11|+ 24 Brain , tº ſº tº ...] – 2 – 13| + 4|+ 1|– 5 – 14 – 6 + 5|+ 9|+ 16|+ 16|+ 22 Heart diseasesand dropsy + 14-30|-30|-11|... + 3 ...|+28|+22|+22|+21|+26 Kidney diseases ..]+32|+ 68|+48|+23|+20 + 23|+27|+33|-|-40|+ 40 + 30|+25 Cancer ... tº e & ..]+ 38 ... . ... ... . ... I + 18|+ 25 + 38|+ 43 + 52 + 44 Violence... ..] – 8–10] – 16 – 27 – 17 — 13] – 9 – 6 + 2 + 4 + 10|+|19 All other causes ..| – IIl-10 – 12 – 9 – 8 – 12 – 11 – 9 – 6 – 9 — 16 – 10 All causes... ..|- 7|- 9 – 23 – 23 – 22 — 21 -12– 1| + 3|+ 5|+ 4 + 4 and Wales. FEMALEs. Percentage Fall or Rise TABLE WB.-England &n the Death-Rates Various Causes at Eleven Groups of Ages. Aver- ages of the Five Years-1876-80, compared with Averages of the Ten Years 1861-70. ~. * 10—15–10–15–20–25–35–45–55–65–75– Ages. Small-pox ſº tº º ...] – 50–74 – 51 – 5 – 15 – 1|– 7|+|14|+ 6|– 4 – 13 – 12 Measles ... tº ſº ...] – 14|- 14 – 11|– 28 – 31|– 30 – 11 ... . ... . ... ... . ... Scarlet fever ...] – 31|–29|- 33 – 48 – 45 – 41 – 30 – 21 ... . ... ... ... Diphtheria ...] – 34–39 – 26 – 37–39 – 44 — 39 – 18 — 50 – 32 – 14 – 40 Fever tº e C# ... – 57–61|–55 – 50|–49 – 50 – 49|–61|–65|- 69 – 70|–76 Whooping-cough ..I - Il- 1 - 12 ... . ... . ... . ... . ... . ... . ... . ... . ... Diarrhoeal diseases . | – 22 – 14 – 58] – 66 – 70 – 66 – 67 – 64 – 56 – 44|- 34 – 24 Phthisis e ...] – 22–22 – 19 – 18 – 27 – 26 – 24 – 16 – 17 – 16 – 14|+ 2 Lung diseases ... ..]+ I4|+ 15|+ 1 – 9| – 12 – 9 ... |+|12|+ 5|+ 8 + 15|+ 33 Brain , , tº e tº ... — I-15 – 1|+ 3 – 8 – 10 – 8|+ 7|+ 15|+16|+ 15|+ 17 Heart diseases and dropsy + II I#1; ... . . . . . -- ºf 5|+|14|+|12|+ 13|+ 16|+ 28 Kidney diseases ...]+ 594-79|+60|+50|+56|+49|+ 46|+51|+ 60|+68|+ 67|+81 Cancer ... * ...|-H 2 ... . ... . ... . ... |+ 7|+23|+20|+26|+32|+34 Childbirth and child- bed fever } — I – 17 – 11|– 13| – 12 — 23] ... Violence ..] – 3 – 9|–27 – 19 – 17 – 2 + 5|+16|+|13|+21|+|19|+ 3 All other causes ..] – 13–12 – 11|– 4 – 11 — 14 – 12 – 9 – 8 – 12 – 16 – 13 All causes ... ..] – 9–11|– 25 — 22 – 24 –22-17 — 7| – 2 + 8: 34 1 XIV THE DEC/L/WE WAV ZALE Z)ZA TH-AEA TE 261 TABLE VI.—England and Wales. Percentage Fall or Rise of the Death- Rates from Various Causes, at Three Groups of Ages, representing Child- hood and Youth, Working-Life, and Old Age respectively. Averages of the Five Years 1876-80, compared with Averages of the Ten Years 1861-70. Ages ... ... tº & & Males. Females. 0–20. 20–65. 65—. 0–20. 20–65. 65—. Small-pox... dº º tº ... — 63 – 20 § º e — 65 © º º Measles ... e gº tº ... — 13 tº ſº º tº gº tº – 15 © e tº . Scarlet fever tº ºs & ... – 30 — 32 tº ſº e — 32 — 40 Diphtheria $ 9 tº ... — 35 — 42 tº º ſº – 35 — 33 tº º e Fever tº º tº is gº & ... – 55 — 56 — 71 – 55 — 58 — 72 Whooping-cough... tº e º e & & ... 1 ... – 2 e & gº & © e Diarrhoeal diseases ... — 15 – 55 – 26 – 17 — 56 – 29 Phthisis ... tº e º ... – 25 – 11 – 5 – 24 – 21 – 12 Lung diseases ... ... + 15 + 10 + 16 + 13 + 7 +22 Brain , , * * * ... — 12 + 7 + 18 – 14 + 10 + 15 Heart diseases and dropsy | – 19 + 19 + 22 – 13 + 12 + 20 Kidney diseases ... ... + 45 + 35 + 27 + 67 + 54 + 70 Cancer tº º º tº º tº is tº e + 36 + 49 $ tº e + 23 + 33 Childbirth and childbed – 12 fever ... tº e º Violence ... tº º tº ...] – 16 || – 5 + 13 – 14 + 15 + 9 All other causes ... ... — 11 – 9 — 13 – 12 – 10 – 15 All causes ... ...] – 12 — 3 + 3 – 14 — 7 + 1 TABLE VII.-England and Wales. Death-Rates of Females, compared to Death-rates of Males taken as Ioo, from Various Causes, during Childhood and Youth, Working-Life, and Old Age. Averages of Five Years 1876-80. 0–20 20–65, 65– Small-pox ... tº º º tº e º gº º º tº gº tº 90 67 67 Measles e tº e tº gº º e tº º tº tº & ſº º is 94 mº *sº Scarlet fever ... tº ſº tº tº s ſº tº º º * @ & 94 100 ---> Diphtheria ... tº gº e e is ſº gº º tº tº º is 113 100 100 Fever ... e º º s & ºn & a ſº tº gº tº © º º 110 84 77 Whooping-cough ... tº º is tº a º º is e 120 sº e-mº-º Diarrhoeal diseases ... --- e g tº º e 87 100 93 Phthisis * , ºp © tº º ſº tº e tº gº º tº de e 132 82 56 Lung diseases . ... tº ſº tº tº ſº º & G tº 83 69 93 Brain , , ... * * * tº º º e º e tº gº tº 78 83 86 Heart diseases and dropsy ... & © tº & º e 108 94 98 Kidney diseases ... * = &º tº º e * * g. 71 61 28 Cancer tº g tº © º ºs * * * tº tº gº e & ſº 100 219 126 Childbirth and childbed fever ... * - e. sº *ms tº- Violence * tº º 4 - e. e gº e * gº tº g º º 53 19 54 All other causes tº e & s ſº º e - e. ë e e 82 93 101 * All causes e tº e * g tº tº tº e tº gº 87 84 91 262 CHAP. STUDIES IN STATyszycS TABLE VIIIA. England and Wales. MALEs. Diminution or Increase of Deaths from Various Causes at Eleven Groups of Ages. Averages of Five Years 1876-80, compared with Averages of Ten Years 1861-70. Showing Annual Gain (–) or Loss (+) of Lives under each heading. Allowance as made for Increase of Population at each Group of Ages. 20– All Ages. 0 — 5— 10— 15— Small-pox ... – I, Ioff – 820 – 108 || – 7| – 26 || – 59 Measles – 691 – 632 ||— 49 || – 4 || – 5 || – I Scarlet fever — 3,758 – 2,312 – 1,044 || – 253 || – 70 || – 34 Diphtheria ... – 766 – 504 || – 110 | – 41 || – 38 || – 20 Eever to e tº e Q ..|- 6, 188 – 1,242 – 752 | – 417 | – 453 || – 379 Whooping-cough ... ..|+ 51 |+ 54 || – 5 & Cº. tº £ tº tº gº & Diarrhoeal diseases .|- 2,752 – 1,345 – 153 || – 77 || – 55 || – 71 Phthisis ..] – 3,966 – 381 – 133 – 186| – 761 – 1,071 Lung diseases ..|+ 6,490 |+ 3,486 |+ 13 || – 7 + 10 || – 4 Brain , , tº e º ...] – 465 — 2,443 |+ 30 | + 7 || – 21 || – 67 Heart diseases and dropsy |+ 2,565 – 201 – 106 || – 37 * † tº + 14 Kidney diseases ... ...|+ 1,702 |+ 135 |+ 61 |+ 21 |+ 25 | + 34 Cancer tº dº tº ..|+ 1, 187|+ 4 ë + 1 | + 1 |+ 3 Violence — 1,063 – 261 – 148 – 282 | – 178 || – 145 All other causes ... — 8,425 ||— 4,346 |– 280 | – 116 || – 74 || – 112 All causes – 17, 1851–10,808|- 2,784 || – 1,398 || – 1,645|- 1,912 25— 35— 45– 55— 65— 75— Small-pox... * 38 – 20 || – 9 || – 12 || – 6 || – 1 Measles tº wº 4 ſº e * 1 + I Scarlet fever ... I - 29 || – 2 || – 9 || – 3 || – 1 || – 1 Diphtheria ...] – 21 || – 7 || – 8 || – 8 5|| – 4 Fever © tº e tº tº º ...] – 609 || – 649 || – 580 – 558 || – 396 || – 153 Whooping-cough ... ... |+ 1 $ tº º tº e tº º º is a e + I Diarrhoeal diseases ..] – 174 || – 170 | – 184 || – 198 || – 208 – 117 Phthisis ..] – 1,053 – 202 || – 14 | – 118 || – 40 || – 7 Lung diseases ... + 73 || + 336 | + 487 |+ 552 |+ 635 | + 909 Brain , $ & © • . . . "T" 69 || + 101 | + 197 |+ 533 |+ 648 || + 619 Heart diseases and dropsy |+ 4 | + 479 | + 483 |+ 716 |+ 737 |+ 476 Kidney diseases ... ...} + 113 | + 181 | + 265 |+ 362 |+ 326|+ 179 Cancer e is ſº ..|+ 19 || + 70 | + 211 |+ 364 |+ 371 |+ 143 Violence – 172 | – 100 | + 25 | + 56 |+ 75 |+ 67 All other causes ... – 216 || – 224 – 212 |- 414 ||— 1,149 |- 1,282 All causes ..] – 2,171 – 208 || + 653 |+ 1,272 | + 987|+ 829 XIV 263 7 HE DECL/NE IAW THE DEA 7TH-AEA TE TABLE VIIIB.-England and Wales. FEMALES. Diminution or Increase of Deaths from Various Causes at Eleven Groups of Ages. Averages of Five Years 1876-80, compared with Averages of Ten Years 1861-70. Showing Annual Gain (–) or Loss (+) of Lives under each heading. Allowance fis made for Increase of Population at each Group of Ages. All Ages. 0– 5— 10— 15— 20– Small-pox ... – 945 – 817 | – 109 || – 5 – 15 || – 2 Measles — 777 – 711 || – 43 || – 12 || – 4 | – 4 Scarlet fever — 3,879 – 2,247 |— 1,084 ||— 348 || – 87 || – 51 Diphtheria – 870 – 513 || – 177 – 82 – 30 || – 22 Fever tº º tº gº º – 6,510 ||— 1,326 ||— 808 ||— 541 – 554 |— 420 Whooping-cough ... - 93 – 61 — 33 || – 2 | – 2 |+ 1 Diarrhoeal diseases – 2,919 – 1,317 | – 141 ||— 56 || – 52 || – 79 Phthisis ..|- 6,806 – 364 – 139 – 255 |— 1,034 – 1,216 Lung diseases ..|+ 5,404 |+ 2,557 |+ 12 || – 25 || – 47 || – 41 Brain 52 * tº º ...] – 313|||— 2,227 | – 10|+ 14 || – 37 || – 49 Heart diseases and dropsy |+ 2, 121 – 186 ||— 54 || – 1 || – 1 |+ 16 Kidney diseases ... + 1,417 |+ 106 |+ 44 |+ 33 |+ 42 |+ 58 Cancer ..|+ 1,661 |+ 4 |+ 1 |+ 1 |+ 2 || – 5 cº, * *}|- sº + 3 | – 35 | – 84 Violence – 124 – 171 || – 130 || – 34 || – 30 || – 3 All other causes ... — 9,837 ||— 4,372 | – 241 || – 42 | – 115 | – 159 All causes ..|–22,993 – 11,645 – 2,912 – 1,352 | – 1,999 || – 2,060 25— 35— 45— 55— 65— 75— Small-pox ... - . I - 9| + 10| + 3 • , , || T 1 Measles a s " 2 || – 1 + 1 || – 1 Scarlet fever . . I - 41 || – 10 || – 7 || – 4 || – 1 I Diphtheria e - I - 21 || – 6 || – 12 || – 5 || – 1 || – 1 Fever * tº e vº ...] – 609 | – 634 – 565 | – 519 |— 364 |– 170 Whooping-cough ... ..] + 1 | + 1 |+ 1 |+ 1 * & tº gº º Diarrhoeal diseases – 218 – 215 || – 189 | – 217 | – 246 | – 189 Phthisis ..] – 1,983| – 937 || – 534 || – 265 || – 80 |+ 1. Lung diseases • , I - 4|+ 197 |+ 126 |+ 362 |+ 870 |+ 1,397 Brain y 3 tº gº º • , , ; T 82 | + 95 |+ 298 |+ 491 |+ 635 |+ 559 Heart diseases and dropsy |+ 61|+ 246 |+ 279 |+ 471 |+ 664|+ 626 Kidney diseases ... ...|-|- 141 |+ 185|+ .212 |+ 269 |+ 217|+ 110 Cancer ... |-|- 20|+ 233 |+ 350 |+ 467 |+ 411 |+ 177 Childbirth and childbed fever ... tº gº º 234 || – 157 |— 16 Wiolence ... + 16 |+ 44 |+ 40 |+ 66 |+ 63 |+ 15 All other causes ... – 264 – 243 |– 254 |– 561 – 1,357 – 2,229 All causes — 3,228 – 1,192 | – 268 |+ 557]+ 809|+ 264 STUDIES IN STA 7TISTICS CHAP. TABLE IX—England and Wales. Diminution or Increase of Deaths from Various Causes at Three Groºps of Ages. Averages of Five Years 1876-80, compared with Averages ºf Ten Years 1861-70. Showing Annual Gain. (–) or Loss (+) of Lives during Childhood and Youth, Working-Life, and Age respectively, after Allowance is made for Increase of Population at each Age. Males. Females. Ages ... ... ... 0–20. 20–65. 65— 0—20. 20–65. 65—. Small-pox... – 961 | – 138|| – 7 – 946 |+ 2 || – l Measles – 690 — 1. — 770 || – 6 || – 1 Scarlet fever — 3,679 || – 77 || – 2|— 3,766 – 113 tº a tº Diphtheria – 693 || – 64 || – 9 – 802 || – 66 || – 2 Fever tº ſº tº e tº e – 2,864 – 2,775 – 549 – 3,229 |— 2,747 | – 534 Whooping-cough ... + 49 |+ 1 |+ 11– 98 |+ 5 tº º e Diarrhoeal diseases – 1,630 ||— 797 – 325||— 1,566 – 918 – 435 Phthisis ..|- 1,461 – 2,458 || – 47||— 1,792 – 4,935 | – 79 Lung diseases . 4- 3,502 |+ 1,444 |+ 1,544|+ 2,497 |+ 640 |+ 2,267 Brain , , © tº º ...|- 2,427 |+ 695 |+ 1,267 – 2,260 |+ 753 + 1,194 Heart diseases and dropsy - 344 |+ 1,696 |+ 1,213|- 242|+ 1,073|+ 1,290 Kidney diseases ... ...+ 242 + 955 |+ 505 |-|- 225 |+ 865 |+ 327 Cancer ... + 6 |+ 667 |+ 514 |+ 8|+ 1,065|+ 588 Childbirth and childbed fever ... tº gº tº 32 — 491 Violence ... e g tº ... – 869 – 336 + 142 – 365 |+ 163 |+ 78 All other causes ... ...]— 4,816 – 1,178 – 2,431 – 4,770 ||— 1,481 – 3,586 All causes ... ...I – 16,635 | – 2,366 |+ 1,816 – 17,908 – 6,191 |+ 1106 POSTSCRIPT, JUNE 1890. Since the foregoing was read to the Statistical Society, the death-rate has continued extremely low. In 1881 it fell to 189, the lowest point reached up to that date; after rising to 19-6 in the next year it fell again, till in 1887 it reached 18-8, and in the following year dropped to 17.8. From 1881 to 1888 (the last return published) the death-rates for both males and females have in every Ayear been lower than in any preceding year since the commencement of the record in 1838. The death-rate for both sexes has, in the thirteen years ending with 1888, averaged 19.7 per 1000, in the last eight years 19:1 per 1000." This depression in the death-rate has now * Fifty-first Annual Report of the Registrar-General, p. xxxiv. xiv THE DECLINE IN THE DEATH-RATE (POS 7SCRIPT) 265 lasted so many years that it will no longer compare with the period of low death-rate in 1841-45, when the rate was 21° 4. - - The following table, in which the death-rates from all causes at various groups of ages during the five years 1881-85 are compared with the like figures for the period 1876-80, shows that the mortality has decreased at every age-period in each sex. The fall has been but slight in males aged 65-75, and females aged 45-55. In both sexes the diminution in the mortality has been greatest at the two extremes of life. ENGLAND AND Wales—Deal, rates of males and of females from all causes per 1000 living at various groups of ages. The quinquennium 1881-85 compared with the quinquennium 1876-80." All Males. *] o— 5— |Io—|15–| 20–|25–|35–| 45- || 55— 65— 75— 85– 1876-8o - - - is a e 22:1467-04 || 6′34 ||3:44 |4-86 || 6’72 |S*74 |13°38 1982 |34'92 |69-40 |152-2 |331-6 1881-85 tº e a tº $ tº 20:42 59-60 5'78 3-16 |4°56 || 6-00 |8:18 12"74 |19.42 |33-64 |68-78 [144°6 |296'4 Difference ... tº a º I'72 || 7°44 o°56 o'28 o’30 o'72 o'56 o'64 o'4o 1 28 o'62 || 7-6 || 35'2 Fall Aer cent. a s is 7-8 11-1 || 8-8 |8-1 || 6’2 | 10-7 || 6’4 || 4-8 || 2:0 || 3-7 || 0-9 || 5-0 || 10:6 Females. - 1876-8o - - - º gº & 19:54 56-82 5'88 |3:50 |5-04 || 6’24 |8-02 |11'24 |15'36 |2S-60 |60'76 |135°5 |299-0 - 1881-85 tº º º gº tº º 18-24 50-48 || 5-62 |3-30 |4-72| 5'94 ||7-90 |10-90 |15-24 |27-82 |59'46 |129°4 |267-8 Difference ... a tº º I'3o 6'34 o'26 lo'20 o'32 o°30 o'12 o'34 o'I2 o'78 || 1 30 | 6’1 || 31°2 Fall Aer cent. º e º 6-7 || 11:2 4-4 || 5-7 || 6-3 || 4-8 | 1.5 || 3-0 || 0-8 || 2:7 2-1 || 4-5 10-4 It will be interesting to go a step further and make a like comparison between the figures for 1886–88, the three years in which the death-rate averaged only 18-6, with the quinquennium 1881-85 in which it averaged 19-3. A glance at the following table shows that for all ages below 65 the fall has continued, being proportionally 1 Compiled from the Forty-ninth Annual Report of the Registrar-General, pp. xl-xli. The figures for 1876-80 differ slightly from those given in the tables in the body of the paper. This is in consequence of the Registrar- General's death-rates having been corrected for the true population as ascertained at the census of 1881. The discrepancies are inconsiderable. : ; 266 STUDIES IN STATISTICS CHAP. : : ; : greatest in both sexes between the ages of 5 and 15. Between 45 and 65 the fall is but very slight, whereas, above the age of 65 there is a notable rise; indeed for the age 65-75 the death-rate is now higher than in the quinquennium 1876-80, the slight fall in the intervening quinquennium having been more than made up by the rise since. I am now convinced that, in laying so much stress on the increased mortality at the later ages, I did not sufficiently allow for the fact that the period 1876-80 comprised two very severe winters which followed seven consecutive mild seasons. There is no doubt that these peculiar meteorological conditions tended to the survival of an unusual number of persons of advanced life, followed by a correspondingly heavy mortality on the advent of cold weather. With this partial exception I see nothing to modify in the conclusions arrived at in 1884. ENGLAND AND WALES.—Death-rates of males and of females from all causes per 1000 living at various groups of ages. The three years 1886-88 compared with the quinquennium 1881-85.” All Males. *| o- || 5- || Io- |15–|20- 25-|35–| 45–155— 65— 75— 85– 1881-85 ... ... [20'4259-60 | 5-78 || 3-16 || 4-56|| 6-00 || 8'18 12-74 |19°42|33°64 68°78 || 144-6 || 296.4 1886-88 ... ... [196356-93 4'67 || 2 80 |4°17| 5'43 || 7-40 |11-87 |19-13 |33°23| 72°13 || 146-6 || 312-4 Difference ... o'79. 2'67 || 1:11 o'36|o'39 o'57 o'78 o'87 o'29 o'41 |+3°35|+ 2-0 |+16-0 Fall or rise per cent. || 3-9 4-5 | 19.2 11-4 |8-6 || 9-5 9-5 || 6-8 || 1:5 || 1:2 + 4-9 |+ 1.4|+ 5-4 Females. 1881-85 ... ... 18:24.50°48' 5'62 || 3:30 || 4-72 5'94 || 7-90 10-90 |15°24'27-82| 59:46 129.4 267-8 1886-88 ... ... ' |17:6347.93| 4.70 || 3:00 || 4:30 5:33 || 7-07 |10-10 ||14-90 |27-80 || 63:03 |133-9 || 286-6 Difference ... o'61 2'55 o'92 || o'3o o'42 o'61 o°83| o'80 o'34 o'oz |+3°57|+ 4.5+18.8 Fall or rise per cent. 3-3 || 5:1 | 16.4 9-1 8-9 || 10-3 || 10.5 7-3 || 2:2 || 0–1 |+ 6 |+ 3-5]+ 7-0 As regards individual causes of death the later reports * The figures are calculated from those given in the Fifty-first Report of the Registrar-General, pp. xlii-xliii. * : *. ; xiv THE DECLINE IN THE DEATH-RATE (POSTSCRIPT) 267 of the Registrar-General show what changes have occurred since 1881." In the deaths from the following causes there has been a further fall— Scarlet fever tº º is * G & & e & ... very considerable fall. Diarrhoea ... tº gº º • * * tº s is tº e ge 99 33 2 3 Fever e tº e * G e tº e º & © tº © tº e 25 25 39 Dropsy % ... tº tº wº tº ſe dº tº º º tº gº tº 35 92 92 Phthisis ... tº e º tº g tº tº g tº tº º º 2 3 25 32 Convulsions e Q e © tº º tº gº º tº e ſº 9? 53 95 Hydrocephalus (Tubercular Meningitis) ... considerable fall. Small-pox s e e • . . . . . . tº $ tº slight 9 3 Cholera ... tº e º e º 'º g º gº tº & tº e e 33 2 3 Developmental diseases ... tº e e © º ºs • tº gº 52 5 3 On the other hand the fall in the mortality from measles noted in the paper has been reversed, the death- rate has risen so considerably as to have passed the point of 1850-54. -- As regards the diseases which were stated to have increased in fatality, in the following the increase has been maintained— - - Cancer ... © º gº & º ſº very considerable increase. Diphtheria & & © tº º º considerable 25 Diseases of the kidneys ... 9 3 52 Diseases of the heart tº º º slight 93 But in the case of several causes of death the course of events has changed, so that they have been less fatal of late years. Thus croup after a further rise has exhibited a marked fall. Diseases of the lungs, diseases of the brain, and rheumatism have all fallen slightly, but diseases of the liver, whooping-cough, and tabes mesenterica have all * See table A, p. 230 supra. - * An explanation of the decrease under the heading “Dropsy" is given on pp. 228, 229. This explanation applies with still greater force to more recent years, owing to the practice of sending enquiries from the Registrar-General's department in cases where the cause of death is ill-defined. See Fifty-first Report, p. xvii. - 26S STUDIES IN STATISTICS - CHAP. fallen considerably, even below the point of the period 1850-54. The continual fall of “fever” (chiefly enteric) and of scarlet fever deserves to be noticed, also the slow increase of diphtheria. The very satisfactory decrease of phthisis is to some extent counteracted by the alarming increase of cancer, the number of deaths now attributed to this fell disease being double that of forty years ago. As the question of the alleged rise in the death-rate at the later periods of life is one of great interest, and seems left in some doubt by the figures as exhibited above, I will recur to the subject, and look at it in a slightly dif- ferent way. The tables in the Fifty-first Report of the Registrar-General (pp. xlii-xliii) admit of the comparison of five periods of ten years each. I have accordingly constructed the following table, in which heavy type indicates the decade in which the maximum death-rate at each age was reached, also the mean for the whole period of half a century, and french type the comparison between this mean and the rate for the decade of specially low mortality, viz. 1879-88. A careful examination of this table shows that (with one trifling exception) the improvement has been con- tinuous from the first for both sexes at the ages 5-25. For infants under 5 the maximum was reached in the third period; for ages 25-35 in the second period; for ages 55-65 in the fourth period; for ages 65-75 in the last period ; at the other ages there were discrepancies between the males and females. Both sexes, however, concur in showing in the last decennium for the ages 55-75 death-rates slightly above the average of the half century. It seems therefore safe to assert that the great fall in the general death-rate of recent years is almost confined to persons below the age of 45, or above the age of 85. xiv THE DECLINE IN THE DEATH-RATE (POSTSCRIPT) 269 ENGLAND AND WALES.—Death-rates of males and of females from all causes per 1000 living at various groups of ages. Five decennia, the mean of fifty years, and comparison of the last decennium with the mean, showing rise or fall per cent. MALES. * o— 5— | Io– 15— 20- 25- 35— 45— 55—|| 65–|75–| 85– * Periods. 1839-48 ... 23:05 || 71-76 9-23 5-06 || 7-09 || 9:45 9-80 | 12-65 | 17-83|31-43]66-89 |147-5|318-1 1849-58 ... 㺠72°68 || 8-86 || 5-11 || 6’87 9-10 || 9-86 | 12-80 | 18-38|31.35|65'88|146-8 B06-2 1859-68 ... #|####| #| || 3 || 3:#| 3: |##|{jś 1869-78 ... 23°13. 69 96 || 7-18 393 || 5'53 || 7-75 9-74 || 13-97 |20-01|34°53]69:29]149 5322 7 1879-88 ... 20:48 || 60:13 || 5'56 || 3 08 || 4:45 5'88 || 7-96 || 12:51 | 19:40.33:84|70°24|147-7|309.5 50 years ... 22.68||69 49 || 7-78 || 4:34 || 6-04 || 8-15 9-42 || 13:03 || 18-90|32-7567-74.147.6313-0 above or below mean, per cent. Last decade —9'7–13'5 —28'5"|-29'o |—263 —27'9|–15'5] —4'o |-|-2'6|+3°3|+3°7|+o'1|—I’r FEMALES. 1839-48 ... 21'45 161-52 | 896 || 5-46 ) 794 || 8-96 || 10:29 | 12:58|15:63127.9460-02|135-1293.3 1849-58 ... 21 66 63-04 || 8-71 5-25 || 7-64 || 8°87 || 10-35 | 12-68 15-80 |27-74|59°29||134°5|286-1 1859-68 ... 2, 27 | 63.20 || 7-88 || 4-60 | 6′79 || 8-11 || 9-78 | 12:08 |15:51 |27.65|58'95184-0|2867 1869-78 ... 20:47 |59.91 || 6’68 3-94 || 5.77 || 7-14 | 894 || 1179 |1571 28°49'60'50|135°0|292-8 1879-88 ... 18:36 50.83 || 5-40 | 8-22 || 4-62 5-76 || 7-63 | 10-67 |15-16|28.0761-12||132-8|280.8 50 years ... 20-63 59.70 || 7:52 || 4-49 || 6-55 7.77|| 9-40 || 11.96 |15:56 |27-9859-98|1343|287-8 Last decade above or below ) —113–14:9 |—282 —283 —29'5–25'9|–188|-ro'8–2'6|+o'3|+1'9–1 1|–2-6 mean, per cent. 27o STUDIES IN STATISTICS CHAP. CHAPTER XV. THE CAUSATION OF SUMMER DIARREICEA. § 1. Some Facts bearing on the AEtiology of Summer Diarrhoea." THE subject of the causes that produce the annually recurrent epidemics of Diarrhoea, so fatal to the infant population of our large towns, has engaged the attention of many observers, and is by no means a new one to this Society. Many conflicting theories have been ably ex- pounded, and as ably criticised, with the unsatisfactory result that medical officers of health in their endeavours to incite their several sanitary authorities to bestir themselves and cope with this gigantic evil, have, as yet, no mass of consistent professional opinion to appeal to. It is an un- doubted fact that Sanitary authorities, in many cases, think less of the deaths of ten or twenty children from Diarrhoea than they do of a single case of small-pox. My purpose this evening is not to review successively all the conceivable explanations of the fatality of Diarrhoea in any place, Leicester for example, but rather to consider broadly certain large groups of facts, more or less well- known, and in this manner to endeavour to define certain limitations within which observers with special opportu- nities may construct a complete theory that will explain * Read before the Society of Medical Officers of Health, February 1880. XV CA USA ZYOM OF SUMMER D/AA'A' HOEA 271 all the phenomena of the disease. If I merely succeed in placing before you three of these general facts in such a striking manner as to make them easy of remembrance, my object will have been attained. In the first place all are, I suppose, prepared to admit that many circumstances may predispose to Diarrhoea, as to other diseases; such we may conceive to be— Artificial feeding of infants. Eating unripe or overripe fruit. Foul air—Bad water. High temperature—Overcrowding. Syphilis—Struma. In fact, any cause of depression of the general health may be regarded as a possible, or even probable, predisposing cause of Diarrhoea. But secondly, it is at least not improbable that there exists some special or specific cause—at present unknown, or at best the subject of conjecture—which must be super- added to one or more of the predisposing causes before an outbreak occurs, or which may possibly produce an outbreak independently of any other cause. This specific cause may be a meteorological condition, a peculiar form of pollution of air or water, some animal or vegetable matter in a state of change, or even a living germ. Thirdly, the method of inquiry employed by me neces- sitates this limitation, the importance of which I fully admit, viz.:- When in the course of the paper “Diarrhoea.” (or any other disease) is mentioned, it must be clearly understood that fatal Diarrhoea (or other disease) is alone meant. This limitation is forced upon me, because the arguments to be brought forward are all derived from the statistics of the causes of death in this country, so laboriously and 272 STUDIAES ZW STA ZYSTICS CHAP. * carefully collected by Dr. Farr and his assistants in the General Register Office. These statistics are without doubt liable to numerous, indeed serious, errors, due in the main to mistakes of diagnosis, and carelessness in filling up the registers by, it is to be feared, too many practitioners throughout the country; while on the other hand, the classification adopted by Dr. Farr needs careful considera- ation by any one who may desire to draw conclusions from the facts recorded. It is nevertheless but poor logic and unworthy criticism to say that these imperfections alone condemn the system, and make its results valueless. The sequel of this paper, not to speak of other work," should, I think, convince the most sceptical that when perfectly independent inquirers, working with entirely different methods, in one case on the London statistics alone, in the other on those of all England, arrive at the same results, there must be “something in " the figures. The conclusion is strengthened when, by an appeal to the statistics of New York, most of these conclusions are confirmed. In the disease under discussion, the simple fact that many deaths are recorded as having been preceded by Diarrhoea—even as a mere symptom—is sufficient, with the very large numbers at our disposal, to establish certain laws of the disease as a fatal malady. From what has been said above, it follows that the attacks of sharp purging, of a few hours' duration, which so often follow the ingestion of improper food or an undue quantity of food, exposure to cold, or violent exercise after a meal, are left out of account entirely. It is obvious that we shall be far on the road to the solution of a given difficult aetiological point when we can, with respect to any disease under investigation, give satis- factory replies to the three following questions:— * See especially Chapter XVIII. infra. XV CA USA TION OF SUMMER DIARRANCEA 273 1.—Where does it kill? 2.—When does it kill ? 3.—Whom does it kill ? We will see what the Blue-books answer to these questions in the case of Diarrhoea. Since 1870, Dr. Farr's quarterly reports have given the death-rates from Diarrhoea during the three months—July, August, and September, for— a.—The whole of England and Wales. b.-The twenty largest English towns. c.—Fifty other large town districts. d—All that portion of England and Wales which is not included in the seventy large towns, and which for short- ness is termed, “The country districts.” I have calculated the average death-rates in the summer quarters of the ten years ending with 1879, for the whole of the seventy towns. The small diagram shows the more important of the results in a striking manner. The vertical line on the left shows the scale in deaths per 1000 of the estimated population. The names are printed as nearly as may be opposite to the figure on the scale corresponding to the death-rate of the place—only the towns with very high or very low rates (and London) are indicated—no less than thirty-five of the towns have rates between 2 and 4 per 1000." The average death-rate from Summer Diarrhoea (or, more correctly speaking, from Diarrhoea in the summer quarters) of the whole of England and Wales is 24 per 1000. * It must be understood that “a death-rate of 4 per 1000 in the summer quarter” does not mean that of 1000 persons living 4 died in that quarter, but that if the mortality had remained the same for a whole year 4 would have died. T 274 STUDIES I/V STATIS 77CS CHAP. That of the twenty large towns is as high as 3}, while that of the fifty other towns is 3 per 1000. The death-rate of all the rest of the country, that is of all the registration districts not included in any of these seventy towns, and which comprise besides districts pro- perly called rural, a large number of smaller towns, is 1% per 1000. This makes it quite evident that, in the summer, Diarrhoea is twice as fatal in the fifty towns, and 2% times as fatal in the twenty towns as it is in the country districts. Therefore the answer to our first question, “Where does Diarrhoea kill ?” is—“Mainly in the large towns.” It is very probable that if we could separate from the “country districts” a hundred of the small towns therein comprised, the result would come out still more strongly in favour of the country. Incidentally, it may be remarked, that diphtheria shows almost an opposite distribution, being essentially a rural disease." When the death-rates of the several towns are investi- gated, very striking differences come to light. Thus the diagram shows that the death-rate in Leicester is over 8 per 1000, or 5% times the rate prevailing in the “country districts.” Wigan and Preston follow next, with rates about 7. Salford, Leeds, Hull, Yarmouth, Bolton, Liverpool, Birmingham, Manchester, and Northampton follow, all with very high rates. The London rate is almost exactly the same as that of the fifty towns. Of the whole seventy towns, no less than fifty have rates higher than the mean of England and Wales, while but four—Dover, Halifax, Swansea, and Merthyr Tydfil— * See Chapter XVII. infra. ~ XV CA USA TIO/W OF SUMMER DIARRAEICEA 275 enjoy lower rates than the average of the “country districts.” RATE PER 1000 8– 0— DIA. R. R. H CE A D E A T H - R. A. T E S. Summer Quarter Average, 1870-79. LEICESTER WIGAN PRESTON SALFORD LEEDS HULI, YARMOUTH BOLTON BIRMINGHAM LIVERPOOL MANCHESTER TWENTY TOWNS FIFTY TOWNS LONDON FNGLAND AND WALES BATH SHREWSBURY SOUTHAMPTON COUNTRY DISTIRICTS DOWER HALIFAX SWANSEA MERTHYR |NORTHAMPTON The case of Merthyr Tydfil, a mountain town of col- lieries and ironworks, is very remarkable—its rate being 276 STUDIES IN STA TIST/CS CHAP. actually less than half the average “country districts” rate. The general death-rate of Merthyr for the ten years 1870-9 was 22:3, or a little below the mean rate of the fifty towns; and its zymotic rate was 39, or almost the same as that of the fifty towns. Merthyr in past times has suffered severely from cholera and from typhus fever, but it has now for many years been in the fortunate possession of a most excellent medical officer of health. On the other hand, no efforts seem able to reduce the extraordinarily high mortality of Leicester from this disease. Again, why is Halifax so remarkably conspicuous among the northern towns for its low Diarrhoea-rate 2 When the seventy towns are arranged in the order of their average Summer Diarrhoea death-rate, the twenty towns at the top of the list are found to have an average rate of 5-2, while the twenty towns at the other end have a rate of only 1:8. What factor in common have the twenty towns com- prising one group, which, being absent in the twenty towns comprising the other group, causes the latter to have a Diarrhoea death-rate of little more than one-third that of the former ? Density or proximity of population is not the common factor, although the size of the towns does seem to have something to do with it, since out of the twenty worst towns no less than ten belong to the group of the “twenty large towns,” whereas but one of these latter (Bristol) appears in the healthy class, The geological system upon which a town stands appears to exert no influence, although it is not im- probable that porosity or impermeability of soil (inde- pendent of its geologic age) may be of great importance. Elevation above the sea does not make much difference, but this is not necessarily a measure of the fall of the XV CA USA 7TWON OF SUMMAER D/AAA’ACEA 277 sewers—a point meriting investigation. Proximity to the sea is without effect. Accordingly, in the absence of any other clue to a solution of the problem, it is very desirable that the whole of the seventy towns should be classed according to— 1. System of excreta disposal. 2. Fall and ventilation of sewers. 3. Porosity of soil, depth of ground water, and movements of same. 4. Character of water supply. 5. Prevalent trades, and especially the employment of WOIOleI). 6. Consumption of alcoholic liquors per head. 7. Existence of the habit of opium-eating, and the like. Meanwhile the answer to the question, “Where does Diarrhoea kill ?” may be thus modified—“Mainly in towns, but with some remarkable exceptions.” We now come to the second point of the inquiry— “When does Diarrhoea, kill ?” This has received great attention, and is fairly worked out. Messrs. Buchan and Mitchell in their admirable paper On the influence of weather on mortality from different diseases and at different ages, have answered a part of the question. Their diagrams, constructed from the London mortality tables for the thirty years 1845-74, show with great clearness the average fluctuation per cent. from the mean in each week of the year for a great number of diseases. (See Plate XVI.) In some cases—notably Diarrhoea—the weekly death-rate fluctuates so regularly as to form a simple curve. Thus, taking one year with 1 Journal of the Scottish Meteorological Society, July 1875, p. 187. William Blackwood. 278 S 7"UD/ES IAW STA TYSTYCS CHAP. another, the mortality from Diarrhoea is below the mean from the beginning of October to the end of June, while it very greatly exceeds the mean during July, August, and September. From the beginning of December to the end of May the curve may be regarded as a straight line. It rises gradually at the beginning of June, the maximum being attained in the first week in August, whence it falls less rapidly than it rose, until the end of November, following the law that is usually observed in epidemics, the rate of decline being probably some such function of the communicability of the disease that, as the communi- cability decreases, the mortality decreases, but at a slower rate. It is not my object in this paper to enter very fully into the relationship of Diarrhoea fatality to meteoro- logical conditions, but I will merely remark that the commencement of the rise in June and the end of the fall in November are very approximately three weeks after the rise of the mean temperature of the air above 50° and its fall below the same point. Whereas the portion of the curve that is above the mean corresponds closely with the portion of the mean temperature curve that is above 60°, but is about fourteen days later. The population of London is so large, the number of years (1845-74) so long, and the average weekly number of deaths (minimum 13, mean 52, maximum 213) is so great ; moreover the curve is so smooth, so nearly a true curve in the ordinary acceptation of the term, that it may be regarded as the correct expression of a natural (or rather unnatural) law, at least as regards London. Messrs. Buchan and Mitchell have shown that the Diarrhoea curve for New York is almost the same as that for London, the discrepancies being explicable by the climatic differences of the two places. I, O N D ON WEEKLY DEATHS FROM DIARRHOEA & CERTAIN OTHER DISEASES Excess or Defect per cent compared with the Mean. AVERAGE OF 30 YEARS, 1845-74. AN, FEB, MARCH APR, MAY JUNE JULY AUG, SEP, OCT, NOV, Mean Temperature of the Air at GREENWICH 50 40 HMEANs DARRHOF: 52 ENGLISH 3 CHOLERA DYSENTERY 3. THRUSH 3 - TABES 19 MESENTERICA WANT OF 8 EREAST Mll-k JAUNDCE. * ENTERITIS 7 ATROPHY 56 & DEBILITY JAN, FEB, MARCH | APR, MAY JUNE JULY AUG, SE P. OCT, NOW, DEC. Whe curve of "Want of Breast Miſk" is o'educed from the statistics of 27 years only Scaſe. Whe smaſſ divisions correspond to ten per cent of excess or defect from the Mean. The temperature is the average of 20 years, taken from the weekly Returns of the Registrar General for /879. XV CA USA TWOAW OF SUMMER DIA RFACEA 279 The second question, “When does Diarrhoea kill?” may then be answered as follows:— During six months of the year (December 1st—May 31st) the deaths from Diarrhoea in London are practically constant, averaging between 14 and 15 per week. Three weeks after the mean temperature of the air rises above 50° F (i. e. about June 1st), the deaths begin to get more numerous, and a fortnight after the tempera- ture exceeds 60° F (i. e. about July 1st), the deaths begin to exceed the mean (in London 52 per week). The greatest number of deaths occurs in the first week in August (on the average), whence the numbers fall as they rose—mutatis mutandis. The number of deaths thus appears to be some function of the temperature. The coincidences here pointed out, it must be clearly remembered, are merely between meteorological conditions and deaths registered. In searching for their causal relations, allowance must be made for— 1. Interval between registration and death, usually under a week, more often only two or three days. 2. Duration of illness. 3. Period of incubation (if any). The corrections for these would tend to make the temperature curve and disease curve correspond still more closely, unless, indeed, Summer Diarrhoea has a very long period of incubation, which we have no reason to suppose. The constancy of the deaths during a large portion of the year suggested to me the desirability of investigating the geographical distribution of winter Diarrhoea. This was a work of more labour, since the figures were not ready to hand, and some enumeration and calculation were required. The first quarter appeared the most favourable for 28o STUD/ES WAV STA TVS TYCS CHAP. investigation, since it is in no way affected by the summer rise. Taking again the average for the ten years 1870-79, it is found that in the first or winter quarter, the death-rate for the “country districts” is identical with that for England and Wales, viz. 0.3 per 1000. That of the twenty towns is somewhat below, that of the fifty towns somewhat above, the mean. T. I examined more minutely the twelve towns at the top as well as the twelve at the bottom of my first list, and found that in place of the unhealthy towns having a rate nearly four times that of the healthiest towns, it was barely twice as great. Wigan showed the highest rate, 1.0 per 1000 ; then Preston ; Leicester on the other hand was amongst the best, 0.2 per 1000 ; while Shrewsbury, seven from the bottom in summer, came out third from the top. There were many other cases showing a very different state of affairs in winter from that which exists in summer, and strongly confirmatory of the theory that Summer Diarrhoea is a disease sui generis. Messrs. Buchan and Mitchell's diagrams show that the curves for the following eight causes of death— Simple, or English, Cholera, Dysentery, Want of Breast Milk, Tabes Mesenterica, Thrush, Jaundice, Enteritis, Atrophy and Debility, all, to a greater or less extent, resemble the curve for Diarrhoea—but in the case of the last seven, they exhibit less ample fluctuations. By the kindness of these gentlemen ENGLAND AND WALES. DEATH - RATES FROM DIARRHOEA AND CERTAIN OTHER DISEASES WITH RAIN AND HOT DAYS AT GREEN WICH 1847 '48 49 '50 '51 '52 53 '54 '55 '56 '57 '58 '59 60 '81 '62 '63'64, '65 '66 '67 '68 '69 '70 TI 22 '73 '74, '75 '76 '77 '78 '79 - - - 7~~~~37F Whe Jemperature curves indicate Wumbers of Days, aſ the other curves indicate excess or defect per cent from the mean £aeh divison of the vertica/sca/e represents ten per cent Whe Meteorologica/ Means are for the 30 years 1850 - 1879. The Death-Rate Means are for the 32 years 1847 - 1878, fxceof Atrophy & Debſ/ity Mean which is for the 2/years 1858-1878. A A. Asiatic Choſera foidemic in these years consequently figures of fing/sh Choſera waſve/ess. Whe Death-Rates are a/cs/cu/ated per miſſion persons /wing. XV CA USA TWON OF SUMMER DIA RRFIOEA 281 I have been enabled to reproduce (with certain modifications as to colour, &c.) some of their diagrams in Plate XVI. Simple, or English, Cholera may be provisionally re- garded as a term applied to the more severe cases of Summer Diarrhoea—and, as might be expected on that theory, its curve is simply the Diarrhoea curve intensified —almost disappearing in winter, and rising to a pro- portionally higher point in summer. Some of the winter cases are probably due to arsenical poisoning. To attack the question from another point of view— The diagram (Plate XVII.) represents the rise and fall of the annual death-rate from Diarrhoea in the whole of England and Wales. In this case the vertical columns represent years, and the angular coloured lines (euphe- mistically termed curves) represent the fluctuations of the death-rate from year to year—the horizontal portions indicating the height to which the rate rises, the sloping line being put in to give continuity to the whole. The brown line represents the Diarrhoea rate, the dotted line the mean for 32 years. It will be at once noticed that the Diarrhoea curve reaches its highest point in the year 1868, with its hot and dry summer, and its lowest in the years 1860 and 1879, when the summers were remarkably cold and wet. In fact, in general terms it may be stated that Diar- rhoea is most fatal in years with hot summers, especially if they be at the same time dry ; and is least fatal in years with cold summers, especially if they be at the same time wet. It must, however, be admitted that although this rule is strictly correct for extreme years, there are nevertheless many exceptions, and we are as yet far from knowing what are the precise conditions which determine the fatality or otherwise of the disease. The number of rainy days appears to be at least as 282 STUDIES IN STA TYST/CS CHAP. important in its pathological relations as the amount of rain that falls. I have endeavoured to represent on the chart the wetness or otherwise of the three summer months by combining these two meteorological data into one, and representing this by the pale blue area; the quantities (being the algebraic sums of the percentage excess or defect of the rainfall and rainy days) being measured from the top line downwards, so as to show that the relation between Diarrhoea mortality and wet seasons is inverse. This method we owe to Dr. Buchanan. By a careful detailed examination of the deaths from Diarrhoea in London during the summers of 1875 and 1878, and the meteorological conditions at Greenwich for the same periods, I came to the same conclusion as Dr. Farr, namely, that the temperature of the water of the Thames has a closer relation to the mortality from Diarrhoea than the temperature of the air, but the temper- ature of 62°Fahr. appeared to me to be more critical than that of 60° Fahr., which he mentions in some of his reports. It therefore occurred to me that the number of days on which the mean temperature of the Thames rose to 62°Fahr. or higher, would form a good measure of the “ pathological heat” of the summer, if I may be allowed the use of such a term. This enumeration, a somewhat laborious one, was carefully made for me by Mr. F. A. Dixey, and the result is shown in the diagram by the pale crimson area, the boundary line of which will be seen to correspond fairly with the Diarrhoea curve. Above this is a pale brown area representing the number of days in each year on which the mean value of the temperature of the air equalled or exceeded 60 Fahr.; this will be seen also to correspond fairly closely with the Diarrhoea curve. It is my intention to construct other curves cor- XV CA USA 7/OM OF SUMMER D/AA'A'AſOEA 283 responding to various air temperatures; but so far as I have gone, and I believe the same is true of the labours of Dr. Buchanan in this direction, all attempts to express the Diarrhoea mortality in a given place as a function of the temperature only, have failed. The reason is probably a simple one, viz. –that Summer Diarrhoea is a disease very greatly influenced by temperature, but not caused by heat alone ; it is rather a communicable zymotic disease which thrives best during hot weather. This is to some extent borne out by the observations of Dr. W. Johnston on Summer Diarrhoea at Leicester in 1878; that gentle- man remarked that during a prolonged microscopical investigation of the dejecta of Diarrhoea patients, he three times had to desist, owing to severe outbreaks of the disease in his own person." The curves on the chart, below that of Diarrhoea, viz. – English cholera, thrush, tabes mesenterica, want of breast milk, jaundice, enteritis, atrophy and debility, and dysen- tery, all exhibit, when compared in what I may for short- ness term my method, much the same relation to Diarrhoea that is indicated in Messrs. Buchan and Mitchell's diagrams; a fact that, to my mind, is alone sufficient to prove that Dr. Farr's figures have at least some value. We now come to the third question, “Whom does Diarrhoea kill 7" In the next diagram (Plate XVIII.) the annual fluctu- ations in the Diarrhoea death-rates at different ages are represented in a similar manner. Owing to the very small number of deaths from Diarrhoea at certain periods of life, I have (to avoid fallacies as far as possible) added together some of the groups of 1 Summer Diarrhoea, its Nature, Cause, and Treatment. Lancet, 1878. 284 STUD/ES IN STA TVSTICS CHAP. ages in the annual reports, so as to reduce these from Seventeen to Seven. * My “seven ages of man” are as follows— I. 0-1 Infants under 1 year. Period during which, normally, all subsistence should be drawn from the mother's breast. II. 1-2 Infants between 1 and 2 years. Period of transition to a mixed diet. III. 2-5 Young children between 2 and 5 years. Mixed diet established. IV. 5-15 Boyhood and girlhood. To puberty. W. 15-25 Youth. Puberty to manhood. VI. 25–55 Prime of life. VII. Over 55 Period of decline. The vertical columns again indicate years; the seven coloured lines indicate the fluctuations of the death-rate at the seven ages, from year to year. As before, first the death-rates per million persons estimated to be living in each year at each age were calculated, and from these a mean rate was obtained for each age. Then, to insure uniformity of scale, the curves were so constructed that in every case each one of the smaller divisions of the vertical scale corresponds to a deviation of 10 per cent. above or below the mean. The actual value of the mean is indicated in figures on the right hand, from which it appears that in the fifth period (youth) the death-rate from Diarrhoea is an almost vanish- ing quantity, only 0.04 per thousand (or 40 per million) living at that age ; during the preceding period the mortality is little greater, and during the prime of life only 0.1 per 1000. During the third period (2–5 years) it is 6 per 1000, but during the period of decline it rises to 1.2 per 1000, during the second year of life to 5.1 per thousand, and ENGLAND AND WALES. DEATH - RATES FROM DIARRHOEA AT SEVEN DIFFERENT AGES Dotted lines indicate mean Death-Rates for thirty two years 1847 – 78 BOTH SEXES. AGES s is Sºº > - c - G s: S. Sº > § 3. tº º §: §§ - STANaord's GEoc-Esraaf. XV CA USA 7TWOAW OF SU/MA/E/C D/AA’A’ACEA 285 during the first year to no less than 172 per 1000 living at that age. It will be at once apparent that the variously coloured curves in the diagram deal with very different numbers. This difficulty is obviated by the method above described, which was suggested to me by Messrs. Buchan and Mitchell's paper, viz. calculating the fluctuations from the mean, and plotting out these instead of the death-rates themselves; e.g. the top (red) line in 1868 rises 85 per cent. above the mean, and in 1860 it falls 50 per cent. below it. In the same years the yellow line rises 24 per cent. and falls 20 per cent. If now the relations between the curves be analysed, it will be observed that— Firstly. The top (red) curve shows a general upward tendency during the thirty-two years, as does also the second (pale red), but to a less degree ; the third curve (dark green) shows, if anything, a tendency to fall; all the other four curves are decidedly declining, the fall being most marked in what, for shortness, we may term the curve of youth (dark blue), and least so in that of old age (yellow). Secondly. The three great cholera epidemics of 1849, 1854, and 1866 affect the curves very differently. All the curves from two years up to fifty-five are profoundly influenced by the presence of cholera, the old age curve to a much less extent. - The infantile curves are hardly at all affected. Thirdly. All the curves rise to local maxima in 1857, 1861, 1868, and 1878. Fourthly. All the curves fall to local minima or are very low in 1850, 1855, 1856, 1860, 1862, 1869, and 1877. Fifthly. Those fluctuations which are independent of the visitations of Asiatic cholera are less marked in all the 286 STUDIES I/V STATISTICS CHAP. ages above five years than they are in the three earlier periods of life. Sixthly. The second curve is almost identical with the first, a fact having an important bearing on the breast- milk theory. Here it is necessary to make reference to some deduc- tions from data derived from Messrs. Buchan and Mitchell's paper. They have analysed the average weekly numbers of deaths from Diarrhoea in London at six groups of ages for the six years 1869–1874, and have shown that at every age the number of deaths rises during the summer months, though in very different degrees. To avoid fallacies arising from small numbers, I have thrown the six periods into three. The average number of deaths during those six months of the year—December to May—during which the mor- tality from Diarrhoea in London is known to be practically constant, is taken as unity; then the average mortality at each age during the three months of high mortality is compared with this. The following are the resulting ratios:– Ages 0— 5 ... ... ... I : 21°6 5–60 ... ... ... I : 3'3 60 and upwards ... 1 : 38 Summer Diarrhoea, then, kills persons of every age, but young infants in by far the largest proportions. It must here be observed that the figures upon which both these diagrams depend, are the deaths from Diarrhoea during the whole year. (Plates XVII. and XVIII.) But on the average, in the whole of England and Wales, twice as many deaths from Diarrhoea occur during the three summer months as during the remaining nine months of the year, so that two-thirds of the numbers XV CA USA TION OF SUMMER DIA RRAHOEA 287 dealt with are to be referred to summer Diarrhoea, though as the deaths in June and October are evidently closely connected with the summer outbreak, the proportion is really still larger. In the last diagram (Plate XVIII.) we may, judging from the London data, refer about six-sevenths of the deaths from which the first three lines are deduced to summer Diar- rhoea, but only one-half of the deaths on which the other four lines are based. This is no doubt pro tanto a source of fallacy. We may, I think, legitimately draw the following conclusions from the facts that I have laid before you — A.—A variety of causes produce throughout the year deaths which are registered as due to Diarrhoea. These causes affect persons at all ages, and are active in all places in such a way that the Diarrhoea death-rate in the first quarter of the year is pretty nearly the same in town and in country, and in one town as in another town. B.—There exists, in addition, a specific form of Diarrhoea which makes its appearance in the summer months, disappearing again with the advent of cold weather ; this disease, which may be termed Summer Diarrhoea, kills persons at all periods of life, but in much larger numbers at the extremes, and in by far the greatest proportion during the first two years after birth. This disease is greatly affected by the warmth or otherwise of the season, and to a less extent and in an inverse manner by its wetness; but this relationship is such as to make it probable that high temperature and drought are only secondary causes in its production, a fact which is strongly confirmed by its remarkable geographical distri- bution, showing, as it does, a marked partiality of diarrhoea for certain large towns. 288 STUDIES IN STATISTICS CHAP. If these general conclusions be admitted as proved, we may dismiss as untenable certain theories as to the causation of the disease which have been from time to time put forth, viz.:- 1. Bad water and filthy privies. These are as common or commoner in the country than in the large towns, and are therefore not likely to be the cause of a town disease. 2. Fruit, ripe or unripe. This is not extensively eaten by children under 1 year of age, and therefore could only affect them through the maternal organism, which is possible, though not in a high degree probable. 3. Artificial feeding. This, which, during hot weather, would often imply feeding with substances in a state of incipient fermentation, would not account for the deaths of adults or old people, nor of children between the ages of 2 and 5. Moreover it is stated, on good authority, that many children have suffered from Summer Diarrhoea who have been entirely fed from the breast. 4. There remains then bad air. This may be either— a. A locally-bred miasm from the soil, or b. Sewer air. As a working hypothesis, I agree with Dr. W. Johnston's theory, and suggest that the exciting cause of Summer Diarrhoea is intimately connected with the process of putrefaction—however and wherever arising, but that in a large proportion of the cases the infective material has its sources in the public sewers, and is introduced into the system through the lungs. Further observations are much needed on the following points:— I. What proportion of children under 1 year of age, fed Solely from the mother's breast, suffer from the disease, compared with those fed artificially Lists of such cases compiled with the utmost precautions are very desirable. XV CA USA TYOM OF SUMMER DIAA'A' HOEA 289 II. In such cases did the mother, or any members of the family, suffer from Diarrhoea 7 III. What is the usual sequence of cases in families : If medical officers of health in whose districts the disease is prevalent, would systematically compile records of the kind here hinted at, we ought, in a few years, to know more of the aetiology of Summer Diarrhoea, and therefore be in a better position to prevent it. § 2. Summer Diarrhoea in the large Towns of England in 1880." In February of the past year I made a communication to this Society on the subject of Summer Diarrhoea. No pretence of extensive clinical acquaintance with the disease was alleged, the materials for the paper being entirely derived from the returns of the Registrar-General, and the inquiry was, therefore, limited to fatal cases. An attempt was made to establish certain general facts, which any complete theory of the disease must account for, viz.:- (a) A variety of causes produce throughout the year deaths which are registered as due to Diarrhoea. These causes affect persons at all ages, and are active in all places in such a way that the Diarrhoea death-rate in the first quarter of the year is nearly the same in town and country, and not remarkably excessive in any individual town. (b) There exists in addition a specific form of Diarrhoea which makes its appearance in the summer months, dis- appearing again with the advent of cold weather; this disease, which may be termed Summer Diarrhoea, kills persons of all periods of life, but in much larger numbers at the extremes of life, and in by far the greatest propor- tion during the first two years. It is greatly affected by I Read before the Society of Medical Officers of Health, 1881. U 29O STUDIES WAV SZTATISTICS CHAP. the warmth or coolness of the season, and to a less extent by its dryness or wetness; but this relationship is such as to make it probable that high temperature and drought are only secondary causes in its production, a probability which is greatly strengthened by its remarkable geo- graphical distribution. Thus, as a general rule, it is a disease of towns; but different towns are very differently affected — Hull, Leeds, Salford, Preston, Wigan, and notoriously Leicester, suffer in a remarkable degree; where- as Dover, Halifax, Swansea, and especially Merthyr Tydfil, enjoy a no less remarkable immunity. (c) As a provisional hypothesis it was suggested that some products or concomitants of putrefaction are the exciting cause of Summer Diarrhoea. That these are pro- bably chiefly taken into the system through the lungs, and that the distribution of the disease is connected with the existence in certain towns, and parts of towns, of sewers with but little fall and insufficiently flushed. I propose this evening to consider shortly the preva- lence of fatal Diarrhoea in England and Wales during the past Summer. The summer of 1880 was a warm one ; in August and September the mean temperature was above the average— remarkably so in the latter month. The highest tempera- ture of the year was recorded in most places as late as September 4th. The rainfall of July and September was excessive; but from August 8th to September 6th scarcely any rain fell. The death-rate from Diarrhoea in England and Wales for the three months, July, August, and September, 1880, was 3.32°–a little over 21,000 persons, mostly infants, having perished from this cause alone during the above period. This death-rate exceeds the average of the pre- * See note on p. 273. XV CA USA 7TWOM OF SUMMEA’ D/A ACA’A/OEA 291 vious ten years by nearly 50 per cent., and since 1847 has only been exceeded once, viz. in 1868. Some counties enjoyed comparative immunity, viz. Wilts, Westmorland, Monmouth, and North and South Wales, whereas others suffered severely, viz. Warwick, Lancashire, East Riding of Yorkshire, and Leicestershire. Certain points in the distribution of the disease during the past year call for special comment, and for convenience I may state that the following remarks are confined to the facts of the eleven years 1870-80. The death-rate from diarrhoea in the “twenty large towns,” which had hitherto averaged over 66 per cent. in excess of the death-rate of England and Wales, was in 1880 but 33 per cent. above the latter, the smallest excess in any previous year being 50 per cent, in 1878. On the other hand, the death-rate of the “fifty other towns” was somewhat above the average, so that for the first time it slightly exceeded that of the “twenty large towns.” - The mortality in the country districts was, in 1880, 24 per cent, below that of England and Wales, or propor- tionately slightly greater than in any previous year, so that on the whole Diarrhoea seems to have been more generally distributed than usual in the past summer. Perhaps this is what we should expect, since small towns are growing up in the so-called country districts, whereas the sanitary administration of the large towns is improving. When, however, the separate towns are examined, we find Preston heading the list with a death-rate of 13.6 (for the three months), which is greater than any that has prevailed during the past eleven years in any of the seventy towns, the nearest approach to such a high rate being 12'4 in Wigan in 1870. Preston has had the distinc- tion of heading the list for the last two years; it has also 292 STUDIES IN STA 7/STICS CHAP. on three occasions stood second, and for the ten years has averaged third. Second in the past year comes Leicester, with the very high rate of 10-6. Leicester has seven times headed the list and been twice second—in the average of the ten years it has stood facile princeps. Third comes Stockport, with the high rate of 10-0. Stockport has never enjoyed a low death-rate from Diarrhoea, but has never before been so undesirably distinguished (average 16th). York comes out fourth with a rate of 8-6 ; it has never suffered so much before, and indeed there is reason to fear that Diarrhoea is on the increase in that ancient city, its average place being 29th. Fifth comes Salford, one place below its average. Sixth stands Coventry— average 28th—but very variable throughout, having ranged from 11th to 56th. Seventh comes Ipswich— average 24th, but ranging from 6th (1878) to 64th (1870). Diarrhoea seems to be increasing in this town. Eighth stands Hull, two places below its average. The eight towns at the other extremity of the list were in 1880, Merthyr, Swansea, Halifax, Newport (Mon.), Bath, Huddersfield, Rochdale, and Bristol. Of these Merthyr, Swansea, and Halifax occupied their usual places, but it is remarkable that the very small mortality from this disease in Halifax and Merthyr continues to decrease. In the summer of 1880 sixteen towns stood much higher in the list, i.e. suffered much more from Diarrhoea than usual, viz. Stockport, York, Coventry, Ipswich, Black- burn, Walsall, Stoke-upon-Trent, Cambridge, Reading, Maidstone, Plymouth, Southampton, Cheltenham, Dover, Hastings, and Chatham. - On the other hand, eighteen towns stood much lower in the list than usual, that is, enjoyed greater immunity— Wigan, Bolton, Birmingham, Leeds, Yarmouth, Liverpool, Manchester, Bradford, South Shields, Newcastle, London XV CA USA TVOAW OF SUMMER D/AA’AºA'OEA 293 (never so low before), Barrow, Colchester, Oxford, Dudley, Bristol, Rochdale, and Huddersfield. To take, in the case of any individual town, its average death-rate for a period of ten or more years, and compare this with the like average for other towns, does not give all the information that the figures are capable of giving. Again, to quote in the case of the same town the death- rates in a series of successive summers, is most deceptive, since it may lead to the inference that Diarrhoea is on the decrease, or the reverse, in the district. It is necessary to have a standard for each year. The best available standard is the death-rate of the whole country during the same period. I classify the towns in each year in Seven classes, according to the ratio that their death-rate from Summer Diarrhoea bears to that of England and Wales. In this way any one town is readily compared with any other, and we obtain such curious results as this, viz.:-that whereas Salford, with certain fluctuations, main- tains its average place in the lists thus formed, Manchester, on the other hand, is slowly improving. The Sanitary Authorities of those important centres of population are striving, in a most praiseworthy manner, to remedy the filth nuisances for which Lancashire is notorious in sanitary literature: if their Medical Officers of Health, with all their local knowledge, were to investigate thoroughly the causes of the different behaviour of Summer Diarrhoea of late in Salford and Manchester, the results could Scarcely fail to throw much light on the comparative utility of the various methods of sanitary reform employed. In like manner Newcastle and Gateshead appear to be sometimes very differently affected by what must be very similar, if not identical, meteorological conditions. Why is this? In several years the death-rates of Plymouth 294 STUDIES IN STATISTICS CHAP. . and Devonport differed materially, while during the six years that East Stonehouse was ranked among the “fifty towns,” its death-rate was distinct from either. On the other hand, during the same six years, the Gosport and Portsmouth figures were more in harmony. The case of Manchester and Salford may be also looked at in another way. For the four years 1870-73, the average rate in both towns was 7:2; in the seven years 1874-80, the rate in Manchester averaged only 3:8, whereas that of Salford was 5-4. The figures, however, as thus stated, might lead us to imagine that the Salford rate was diminishing, but this deceptive appearance is mainly owing to the very low mortality from Diarrhoea throughout the whole country during the cold and wet summers of 1877 and 1879. When the past eleven years are compared together, after making all possible allowance for the great fluctu- ations which the death-rates of many of the towns exhibit, it will be found that in the following fifteen towns there is a tendency to a decrease in the death-rate from Diarrhoea in the summer quarter, viz. Wigan, Bolton, Manchester, Sheffield, amongst the worst towns; South Shields, Bradford, Bury, Colchester, Gateshead, Middlesborough, Oldham, amongst the medium towns; Rochdale, Hudders- field, Chester, Chatham, amongst the healthier towns. On the other hand, the Summer Diarrhoea death-rate appears to be on the increase in eight towns of the medium class, viz. St. Helens, Lincoln, Ipswich, York, Worcester, Cambridge, Plymouth, Maidstone, and also in one of the healthier class, viz. Dover. In the remaining forty-five towns the mortality, though subject to great fluctuations in some cases, does not show any decided tendency either to increase or decrease. Unfortunately in only eleven out of the twenty large XV CA USA 7TWOM OF SUMMER DJARA’ACEA 295 towns is it possible to compare the Diarrhoea mortality in the past summer with the meteorological conditions pre- vailing locally at the time. In the case of these eleven towns such a comparison fails to connect the fatality from the disease as closely with the temperature as might be expected—though the connection is sufficiently close to prove (as indeed all admit) that high temperature is a necessary factor in the causation of the disease. The mean temperature of the air was 60°, or higher, in London for no less than ten weeks during the four summer months, whereas in Nottingham such a mean temperature was only reached in six weeks; nevertheless Nottingham suffered proportionately more than London to the extent of 60 per cent. The highest weekly mean temperatures were reached in London and Sunderland, both in the first week of September. In Sunderland the Diarrhoea deaths reached their highest point in that week, but in London the deaths were only one-fourth as numerous in proportion to population, and the highest point of the epidemic had been reached a month earlier. Mean temperatures of 60° or higher occurred during June in seven out of the eleven towns, but whereas common experience teaches that these early high tem- peratures are most effective in causing lassitude and exhaustion, in no case were they accompanied or imme- diately followed by numerous deaths from Diarrhoea: a fact long ago noted, and which is easy of explanation on the theory that the disease is excited not by the direct action of high temperature upon the nervous system, but by the products of putrefaction which are dependent upon prolonged high temperature. In nine out of the eleven towns, the highest mean temperature was registered in the first week of September. The highest point of the epidemic was before that week in four of these nine towns. 296 STUDIES IN STA TISTICS CHAP. It is a remarkable fact that although August was hotter and more free from rain than July in London and Brighton, in both towns Diarrhoea deaths diminished in frequency as the month approached its end, in spite of rising thermometer and rainless sky. The incidence of Summer Diarrhoea from week to week in the past summer no more admits of explanation by meteorological conditions alone, than does its distribution in different parts of the country. To explain the course of the annually recurring epidemic in any particular year in any one district, it is requisite that besides meteoro- logical conditions we should also be acquainted with other factors, such among others as variations in quantity and quality of water-supply, flushing and disinfecting of sewers, street watering and Scavenging, removal of house refuse, &c. In the last week of July, the Diarrhoea rate in the “ queen of watering-places,” Brighton, rose to 10.2 per thousand, a rate double that of any other of the great towns in the same week. What did the frightened inhabit- ants, or the sanitary officers, do in Brighton, that made the death-rate fall from that date, while in all the other great towns it was rising 3 Or what had they permitted to be done previously to the end of July, that made such a state of things possible : The epidemic in London reached its height as usual in the first week of August. Why was it almost entirely unaffected by the high temperature in September 7 Bristol as usual suffered but little, and that little chiefly in September; the maximum being in the third week of that month, or eight weeks later than in Brighton. The incidence of rainfall in the eleven towns was not sufficiently different to account for these discrepancies. The events of 1880 I regard as confirmatory, so far XV CA USA TWO/W OF SUMMER D/A RA’ HOE A. 297 as they go, of the theory which regards the exciting cause of Diarrhoea as an organism, or other concomitant of decomposition of organic matter, which can only exist, or become virulent in its properties, after prolonged high temperature. One writer on the subject has recently attributed much of the mortality from Summer Diarrhoea to de- composing food, especially fish, and more especially mackerel. This may no doubt kill a certain number of individuals; but if it be an important factor in the mortality of infants in the first two years of life, it must act through the maternal organism. Is it or is it not the case that the mothers of infants dying from Summer Diarrhoea usually themselves have the disease, and if so, in which generation does it show itself first Dr. A. McCook Weir, of Nottingham,' admits one of my points, viz. that the disease affects persons at all ages of life, but he denies the influence of sanitary surroundings. He says a fatal issue results only where there is a previous atrophic condition. This is very probable ; but as he also admits that persons not in an atrophic state of system take the disease readily, it merely proves that atrophy is a part of the cause of death, not of the disease. Is it not more than probable that the crippled child of three years old, who had been “crawling on the pavement under a broiling sun,” and afterwards died of English cholera, eight hours after the first symptoms, had been playing, as children often do, immediately over a sewer grating 2 Again, Dr. McCook Weir says, “Dr. Johnson is well aware that infantile mortality must to a great extent, other things being equal, depend on the number of infants,” and again, in the same paper, “given, therefore, 1 Sanitary Record, Jan. 1881, p. 276. 298 STUDYES IN STATIST/CS CHAP. a uniform birth-rate, an equal degree of infant suscepti- bility, whether congenital or acquired, or both, and all equal degree of heat, and I venture to submit that there would be an equal prevalence of infantile Summer Diarrhoea throughout the country.” " To test the importance of birth-rate in the question, I have for each of the seventy towns calculated the ratio per cent of the Diarrhoea death-rate in the summer quarter to the mean birth-rate of the two preceding quarters, whereby all errors of estimation of population are avoided, this being in fact but another way of stating the percentage of Diarrhoea deaths to births registered in an equal period of time. Now it is evident that if a high birth-rate were an important factor in the question, these ratios should be approximately equal for all the towns. What is the case, however ? Preston gives the highest ratio, 33 per cent. The nine towns with the highest Diarrhoea rates give an average ratio of 24 per cent. Whereas the nine towns with lowest Diarrhoea rates give an average ratio of 5 per cent., Swansea and Merthyr having a ratio of 1 per cent. Only. In the accompanying table all the towns having higher birth-rates than Leicester are in italics. An inspection of the table proves conclusively that a high birth-rate has little to do with the matter. I cannot but feel that induction from an insufficient basis of facts (but one or two towns being considered by each inquirer) has been the chief source of error in inquiries hitherto made into the causation of infantile Summer Diarrhoea. * Sanitary Record, Sept. 1879, p. 91. : § 22 HEALTHY TOWNS. ### l; a # , als ###.lān ā..] s—s 23 UNEHEALTHY Towns. # 3 # # 3| 3'- § 25 MEDIUM Towns. f ; ##|##. # Žl 2: § ##33 |##33| 33 s 35&;3|##3: | #3 s āş;"|###| || #- S. §§§T |###" || 3–3 & ſt & £ 3 |& I. II. I. II. Preston, 13-6 || 41°7 33 ||Nottingham ... 5-3 38'0 14 Leicester 10-6 || 38°4 28 Sunderland 5-0 39.7 13 Stockport 10-0 || 41'2 || 24 || Manchester... 4°9 || 37'5 13 York ... 8-6 || 34-6 25 Worcester 4 '8 30°2 16 Salford 8’4 402 || 21 ||Cambridge 4-7 || 32.5 14 Coventry 8-3 || 35°3 24 ||Tynemouth 4-7 38°2 12 Ipswich 8-2 || 35-6 || 23 ||Wolverhampton 4-6 || 38°2 I2 Aſwll 7-8 || 39.5 20 ||Reading 4'4 || 37°5 12 Northampton 7-7 || 38-3 20 || Derby 4'4 || 39°4 11 St. Helens 7'1 || 48-9 15 || Bury ... 4 °4 || 41 °3 11 Wigan & º º tº gº tº 7-1 || 48'5 15 || Brighton 4-3 || 31°8 14 Ashton-under-Lyme ... 7-1 || 41-6 17 || Bradford 4'2 32°2 13 Norwich º 6-8 || 35-8 19 ||Maidstone 4 °2 34°4 12 Blackburnt. 6-8 38°5 18 Gateshead © tº ºn 4 °2 38-9 11 Bolton 6°5 || 36°4 18 ||Middlesborough 3-9 || 35°6 11 Walsall 6-2 || 40 °5 15 Portsmouth 3-8 32-7 12 Sheffield 6-2 || 36-0 17 ||Plymouth 3-7 || 32°5 11 Birmingham ... 6-1 || 41 °2 15 ||Southampton ... 3-6 33°7 11 Leeds ... 6-1 || 36.7 17 Cheltenham 3-6 26-6 14 Yarmouth tº º 6-1 33:1 18 South Shields 3-6 35°3 10 Stoke-upon-Trent 6'1 || 38-1 16 || Carlisle e © º º 3-6 || 41°8 9 Lincoln e tº tº 6°1 | 40 "1 15 ||Newcastle-upon-Tyne 3°5 || 36'6 10 Liverpool 6-0 || 39.7 15 || Exeter tº tº $ tº 3°5 33°5 10 Cardiff 3.5 40°4 9 Dover ... 3-4 f 32.2 11 Averages 7-5 || 39:1 I 9 4°2 35°6 12 ENGLAND AND WALES 3-3 || 35-8 9 London Oldham Hastings Barrow-in-Fuº'ness Chatham Colchester Devonport Oxford * West Bromwich, Macclesfield... Chester Birkenhead Dudley Shrewsbury Bristol Rochdale tº º º Huddersfield... Bath ... tº gº º Newport (Mon.) Halifax tº º º Swansea, tº º º Merthyr Tydfil Averages Q) ºn Q} ââslåås is: ##5%|####| #3; āāg #"> P = $. I. II. 3-3 || 37°4 9 3-3 || 34-7 || 10 3°3 || 29 °4 || 11 3'3 42°8 8 3'2 31.6 10 3°2 || 32°9 || 10 3 *2 29 °4 11 3 * 1 || 35 °2 9 3°1 || 45°8 7 3 * 1 || 34°0 9 3 * 1 || 33°4 9 2-9 || 37-9 8 2°8 || 38-9 7 2°5 || 33 °8 7 2°4 || 35 °3 7 2-3 || 29.9 8 2*2 || 30-9 7 2°1 || 26-0 8 1.7 37.8 4 1 °4 || 29 °6 5 "5 | 40 °4 1. *4 || 30°4 I 2-6 || 34°5 8 Towns in italics have higher birth-rates than Leicester. 3OO STUDIES I/V SZTA TVS TYCS CHAP. § 3. Summer Diarrhoea in England and Wales. 1880-87. In the third quarters of these eight years the death- rate from Diarrhoea averaged only 194 per 1000, as against a rate of 2.25 in the ten years 1870-79, being a fall of 14 per cent." This diminution in the Diarrhoea mortality may have been caused by either (1) meteor- ological differences between the two periods, or (2) sanitary improvements. Without denying that meteorological conditions had a share in the result, I am disposed to attribute more weight to the latter cause. In the first place it is an undoubted fact that sanitary reforms have been in active progress during the whole period under review, and in the second place, prolonged high temper- ature and drought in the summer of 1884 did not produce such an increase in Diarrhoea mortality as might have been expected. In the long table (pp. 302, 303), on the left hand side the seventy chief towns of England and Wales are seen arranged in the order of their average mortality from Diarrhoea in the third quarters of the ten years 1870-79; on the right hand the same towns are arranged in the corresponding order for the eight years 1880-87; in each case the town with the highest mortality is placed at the top of the list. In the middle column is shown the rise or fall, per cent., in the death-rate of the second period compared with the first. An examination of the table reveals, among many changes, certain constant features that are very striking. Of the 20 towns at the top of the list in the first period, no less than 16 were among the first 20 in the second period; while Leicester, Preston, Salford, Leeds, and Hull were among the worst six towns in each period. 1 The rate varied from 1:14 in 1885 to 3:29 in 1880. XV CA USA TWOZV OF SUMMAER DJARRAE/CEA 3OI Again, of the 20 towns at the bottom of the first list, no fewer than 16 were also among the last 20 in the second period; nay more, Merthyr Tydfil, Swansea, and Halifax, as the healthiest towns, take the three places at the foot of both lists. This persistent selection and equally persistent avoidance of certain towns by Diarrhoea should give some clue to its causation. It will be noticed that while the death-rate fell more or less in 59 out of the 70 towns, it rose in nine ; and in two, Merthyr Tydfil and West Bromwich, there was no change. Not only did the rate fall in the 28 most unhealthy towns, but even in 16 out of the 22 healthiest, especially in the case of Swansea, Bath, Huddersfield, Bristol, and Rochdale. The improvement should also be noticed in the case of Carlisle, Exeter, Oxford, Barrow-in-Furness, Tynemouth, Colchester, South Shields, Ashton-under-Lyne, Northampton, Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds, and more particularly Wigan. This last town was formerly a close rival of Leicester, whereas its mortality, having fallen one-half, from 7-2 to 3.6 per 1000, is now exceeded by that of thirteen towns." It occurred to me to write to the medical officers of health of those towns in which any marked change in the Diarrhoea mortality had taken place, and ask them to name 1 Since the table was calculated the returns for 1888 and 1889 have been published, but as the Registrar-General no longer publishes the death-rates for the “fifty towns” (see supra, Chapter XIII. p. 204), the results could not be incorporated without undue labour. The death-rate for England and Wales was, in the cold and wet summer of 1888, only 0.90; in 1889 it was 1-67. As regards the twenty-eight towns, for which the rates are still published, the averages for the two years showed Preston and Leicester still at the top (Salford and Leeds following closely), and the same four towns as before at the bottom of the list. Sheffield, Norwich, Sunderland, Portsmouth, and Birkenhead showed a marked relative deterioration, but Hull and Nottingham an equally marked improvement relatively to the other towns. 3O2 CHAP. STUDIES IN STATISTICS Average Death-rates from Diarrhoea in Seventy Large Towns of England and Wales in the Summer Quarters of t'e Ten Years 1870-79, compared with the Eight Years 1880-87. : I2. I3. I4. I5. I6. I7. I8. I9. 2O. 2 I. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 3O. 3I. 32. 33. 34. 35. Ten years 1870-79. º: º Eight years 1880-87.1 ..] Leicester 8-1 || – 19 | Preston 6'8 .|Wigan 7.2 | – 50 | Leicester 6 6 . |Preston ... 6:9 | – 1 | Salford 4-7 . Salford e - © } • — 19 | St. Helens 4-2 5.8 Leeds o e º – 31 || Hull ... 4°1 Hull ... 5-6 || – 27 | Leeds tº º Q Q @ . Yarmouth ... © - tº } 5. – 25 | Nottingham ... tº e is | 4-0 . Bolton tº - e. – 25 | York ... © tº º . Liverpool ... – 31 Yarmouth e - © .|Birmingham © e. e. | 5°l – 24 || Birmingham ... e - e. } 3-9 . . Manchester... • * > | — 37 | Bolton tº tº º Northampton . 5-0 | – 36 | Norwich e tº e Sheffield 4-9 | – 22 | Sheffield • * * } 3-8 Ashton-under-Lyne 4-5 | – 47 || Wigan e - e. St. Helens ... tº e º } 44 T 5 | Gateshead e - e. } 3-6 Stockport © e e – 18 Stockport tº º º Nottingham 4’3| – 7 || Liverpool 3.5 South Shields 4-2 || – 36 Ipswich 3'4 Norwich ... 4°l – 7 | Sunderland ... º o º Lincoln tº e o } 3-9 – 15 Lincoln tº gº tº e e | 3.3 Tynemouth º –41 || Wolverhampton ... J Newcastle-upon-Tyne – 30 | Manchester tº e e Sunderland 37 || – 11 | Northampton © - e. } 3.2 Ipswich tº e tº – 8 || Walsall tº º º Bradford tº e (º } 3-6 – 28 | Blackburn ... ... 3-1 Bury s -25 | Stoke-upon-Trent ... Wolverhampton 3-5 | – 6 | Portsmouth ... * - e. } 3.0 Coventry ... 3-4 – 12 || Coventry * * * York e is e tº tº º | +21 | Cardiff 2-8 Colchester ... ... }. 3-3 || – 33 | South Shields e - e. Blackburn ... ... } – 6 || Bury... e e - } 2.7 Derby e tº e © & © – 31 | Newcastle-upon-Tyne Gateshead ... • * * }* + 13 || Bradford * - e. | 2-6 Worcester ... © º º – 31 || London ... J Stoke-upon-Trent ... 3-1 || – 3 || Brighton 2.5 * The towns that have gained improved places in the list (i.e. have gone down) are printed in italics, those that have relatively lost ground as regards diarrhoea (i.e. risen in the list) in clarendon type. XV 3O3 CA USA TIO/W OF SUMMER D/A RRHOEA Average Death-rates from Diarrhoea in Seventy Large Towns of England and Wales in the Summer Quarters of the Ten Years 1870-79, compared with the Eight Years 1880-87. 36. 37. 38. 39. 4O. 4 I. 42. 43. 44. 45. 46. 47. 48 49. 5.o. 5.I. 52. 53. 54. 55. 56. 57. 58. 59. 6o. 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. 66. 67. 68. 69. 7o. -*- Ten years 1870-79. º: sº Eight years 1880-87." London & º º – 13 | Ashton-under-Lyme ... 2-4 Brighton e e e } 3-0|| – 17 Tynemouth ... tº e º } 2-3 Portsmouth ... 2-8 || -- 7 Chatham ſº Barrow-in-Furness ... – 48 || Colchester • Cambridge ... ... }. 2-7 || – 19 Derby e Walsall & º º + 19 || Worcester Oxford ... ) –46 | Cambridge × 2-2 Dudley ... 2.6 – 15 | Dudley Middlesborough ... – 15 Middlesborough A Exeter to º ºs | –38 Birkenhead ... 2-1 Carlisle tº gº tº –44 | Maidstone ... ) Oldham ... 2.5 –24 | Newport (Monmouth) | Cardiff tº º tº +12 Dover ... 2:0 Plymouth ... º ºg & } 2.4| – 17 | Plymouth e e Maidstone ... e g ſº – 17 | Oldham • . . ] '9 Rochdale tº gº tº – 55 | West Bromwich ... Birkenhead e - G } 23| – 5 Southampton º } I '8 Bristol & © tº –33 Hastings 1.7 Reading tº º o | 2.1 – 29 | Eaceter tº tº e Huddersfield ... J –38 Cheltenham tº º º | 1.6 Macclesfield e tº º } 2-0 – 20 Macclesfield ſº Chester e º ºs –30 | Reading 1-5 Devonport ... ge & C –26 Devonport tº º g Cheltenham ... } 19| – 16 || Chester º l Hastings e tº º – 11 | Barrow-in-Furness West Bromwich ... – 0 || Oxford - 1:4 Chatham ... }. 18 || 4-28 || Carlisle Newport (Monmouth) +11 Bristol J Bath ... 1-7 || – 41 || Huddersfield 1.3 Shrewsbury • * * } 1-6 –31 | Shrewsbury ... 1-1 Southampton e G +13 | Rochdale • * * Dover ... 1.4|- +43 | Bath ... • . . . 1-0 Halifax g tº º © — 23 || Halifax tº $ tº Swansea c - e. } 13| _ 54 || Merthyr Tydfil . 0-7 Merthyr Tydfil 0-7 || – 0 | Swansea 0.6 * The towns that have gained improved places in the list (i.e. have gone down) are printed in italics, those that have relatively lost ground as regards diarrhoea (i.e. risen in the list) in clarendon type. 3O4 STUDYES I/V SZTA TVS 7./CS CHAP. . any changes of circumstances in their sanitary districts to which they would attribute the decrease (or increase) in Diarrhoea. No fewer than 25 medical officers were kind enough to reply, some of them in great detail, to my queries, and I take this opportunity of once more thank- ing those gentlemen for their great kindness. The replies, as might have been expected, were very varied; a number of circumstances were detailed as possible causes of the diminution in Diarrhoea mortality; in a few cases the cause was assigned with some confidence, but more usually with hesitation. I have endeavoured to group the answers - as far as the facts allowed :— “Substitution of water-closets for privies”:-Chester, Liverpool, Worcester. - “Abolition of privies”:-Derby, Oaford. “Substitution of dry-ash closets for privies”:—South Shields. “Substitution of the pail-system for privies”:-Ashton- under-Lyne, Rochdale, Tynemouth, Wigan. [N.B. These are four towns in which the improvement as to Diarrhoea was very marked.] “Substitution of ash-tubs for middens”:—Hudders- field. * “Improved drainage, or sewerage":—Bristol, Carlisle, Derby, Eveter (application of the “smoke-test” in all houses in which it was suspected that a case of illness might possibly be connected with the drains), Hudders- field, Oaſord, Rochdale, South Shields, Swansea, Tynemouth. “Severance of connection with the sewers”:—Derby, Tynemouth. “Improvement in the removal of nuisances”:-Ashton- under-Lyne, Bristol, Carlisle, Worthampton (?), Oaford, South Shields, Swansea. “Weekly removal of house refuse”:-Derby. XV CA USA 7TWOAV OA, SUMMAER D/A A*/8A/CEA 3O 5 “More frequent emptying of ash-pits”:—Ashton-under- Lyne. - --> “Emptying ash-pits in June, and then letting them alone during July and August " (to avoid disturbance of the night-soil during hot weather):—Liverpool. “Wentilation of house drains, and ventilation and flushing of sewers”:—Chester. “Flushing local drains during the summer’’:-Batſ, (with disinfectants), Huddersfield (Dr. Cameron lays great stress on this), Liverpool. “Watering the streets with disinfectants”:—Eveter. “Paving back streets”:—Wigan. - “Cleaning and paving courts”:—Eveter, Worcester. “Cleaning and whitewashing tenement houses”:- Eveter, Worcester. “Improved houses for working people "—Oxford (and consequent improved habits), Rochdale, Tynemout/. “Various sanitary operations ":—Liverpool. “Purification of the river’’:-Oxford, Wigan. “Abolition of surface wells”:—Derby. “Extension or improvement of water supply”:—Bristol, Chester, Derby, Huddersfield, Northampton, Oaford, Tyne- mouth (said to be still defective). “Better feeding of infants”:—Ashton-under-Lyne, Jºneſer, Sout/ Shields (in these three towns circulars on the feeding and management of infants are given to the mother on the registration of each birth), Rochdale. “Possibly increased hygienic knowledge ":—Carlisle, South Shields. - “The good work done by crèches”:-Batſ. “Improvement in milk”:—Derby, Tynemouth (inspec- tion). “Improvement in food”:-Derby, Rochdale. “Food no longer kept in cellars”:—Rochdale. X 306 STUDIES IN STATISTICS CHAP. --> “Improved habits and mode of feeding of the people”: —South Shields. “Checking the consumption of unwholesome fruit, bad fish,” &c. :-Bath. - “Women perhaps somewhat less employed in factories. The people more regular in their habits of living. Have not so much to spend. Have not so many children, and therefore take more care of what they have. Give their infants more milk and less bread and water”:—Rochdale. From Newcastle the report was that no important change had taken place to explain the diminished mortality. So much for the towns in which Diarrhoea mortality has diminished. In only nine towns was the Diarrhoea mortality greater in the second period than in the first ; but if we bear in mind that during the time under consideration the mortality in England and Wales fell 14 per cent, we shall see that the rise in the death-rate of these nine towns has perhaps more interest and significance than the fall in fifty-nine. Here, one might be justified in saying, we should expect to find some clue to the cause of the disease. In the following table are given details as to the nine towns, and also as to five others, in which the death-rate was stationary, or nearly so. It will be observed that the increased mortality was in no case absolutely great, although in Dover, Chatham, York, and Walsall it amounted to a considerable per- centage increase on their mortality in the first period. It was indeed sufficient to alter notably the position of those towns in the list, so that, e.g., Dover has lost its proud place of fourth in point of health, while York is now amongst the conspicuously unhealthy towns. Whereas formerly Chatham, Dover, and Newport all had rates con- XV CA USA TWOW OF SUMMER DIA RRAſOFA 307 DEATH-RATE FROM SUMMER DIARRHOEA IN CERTAIN TOWNS. A-r Increase. 1870-79. 1880-87. Actual. Per cent. York ... e tº dº g is tº 3-3 4-0 +o'7 +21 Dover ... tº º jº ... 1-4 2-0 + or 6 +43 Walsall ... tº e ſº tº ſº tº 2.7 3.2 +o'5 +19 Chatham <º º gº tº it 3 1-8 2-3 +o'5 +28 Gateshead * G tº tº & © 3-2 3-6 + O'4 + 13 Cardiff ... tº $ tº tº de & 2.5 2-8 +o'3 + 12 Portsmouth Q & ſº tº º & 2-8 3-0 + o'2 + 7 Newport (Mon.) tº dº ſº 1-8 2-0 + o-2 +11 Southampton ... G tº º 1.6 1.8 + o'2 + 13 Merthyr Tydfil ... tº e e O-7 0-7 O'O gºmºmº- West Bromwich tº gº tº 1-8 1-8 O'O &==º Birkenhead © tº e © º, ø 2-2 2-1 — O' I — 5 Stoke-upon-Trent tº gº tº 3-1 3-0 — O' I — 3 Preston ... gº tº e dº gº tº 6-9 6-8 — O "I — 1 siderably below that of England and Wales, now the Diarrhoea mortality of each of them exceeds that of the whole country. From Gateshead and Walsall I have no replies. York has no changes to report, except in boundaries, and those do not affect my comparisons. The medical officer of health cannot assign any cause for the increase of Diarrhoea in Newport, and the same applies to Dover. In Southampton improved drainage and water supply, as well as house to house inspections, are reported ; a “Destructor" furnace was erected three years ago, to which all house refuse is removed weekly; the milk is frequently analysed and often found to be adulterated, but no explanation of the increased mortality is forth- coming. The Chatham medical officer reports the removal of nuisances; a system of surface drainage; the closure of wells. He says that a very large number of women are 3O8 ..STUDIES IN STATISTICS CHAP. employed in clothing factories; also that when the women s go “hopping,” their children are left at home to be fed out of foul-smelling bottles. He adds, however, that he cannot indicate any new circumstance as likely to have caused the increased mortality. • Dr. Walford suggests that the increased fatality of Diarrhoea in Cardiff may probably be explained by the exceptionally rapid increase of population (possibly under- estimated) and the excessive birth-rate, which is the highest in the kingdom. The population has outgrown the water supply, so that in the summer-time the sewers are imperfectly flushed, and there is consequent atmo- spheric pollution. Dr. Mumby reports that in Portsmouth women are more employed in factories than formerly. He is con- vinced that in 1886 much fatal Diarrhoea resulted from repairing and cleansing the sewers during very hot weather. At the same time he asserts that sanitary defects are now rarely found on inspecting houses in which deaths from Diarrhoea have occurred. The following table is designed to show the incidence of fatal Diarrhoea in England and Wales on the two sexes at the several periods of life during 20 years. At first sight it appears that although the disease differs greatly in fatality at different ages, the proportionate incidence on the two sexes is very similar. The figures in the right-hand column, however, prove there are some decided differences. Thus, in the first year of life, six boys die from Diarrhoea for every five girls. Again, at the ages from 20 to 45, women suffer decidedly more than men. This is probably to be explained by the fact that women being more at home are more affected by any insanitary conditions of the house. Moreover, they are exposed to infection (if XV CA USA 7TWOW OF SUMMER DIARRAHOEA 309 any) in nursing the sick. The great excess of male deaths in the first year of life would appear to be con- nected with the great excess of male deaths from all causes. We saw in the second chapter (p. 6), that for every 4 girls that die in the first year of life from all causes, 5 boys die. DEATH-RATES AT WARIOUS AGES OF MALES AND OF FEMALES PER MILLION LIVING AT EACH AGE, AVERAGE OF THE TWENTY YEARS 1861-80.1 Males. Females. Excess per cent. Age 0 — 20,963 17,595 Males 19 } } 1 — 5,799 5,641 25 3 ,, 2 – I, O49 1,075 Females 2 ,, 3 — 37 o sº tº º 365 tº º º Males I ,, 4 — $ tº e 209 e tº gº 198 tº e ſº 2? 6 ,, 5 — is a º 7 I & ſº tº 78 & © tº Females 10 , 10 — * & e 26 e e tº 25 tº º º Males 4 ,, 15 — tº gº tº 25 e tº º 27 * * * Females 8 ,, 20 — tº º tº 37 tº º º 47 tº º º 3 3 27 ,, 25 — tº º e 58 & Q & 79 tº e G ,, 36 ,, 35 — tº tº º 92 tº º º 107 tº e ºs 25 16 ,, .45 – gº tº º 167 £ tº e 160 dº º º Males 4 ,, 55 — g ſº º 439 tº dº tº 420 ë º º 35 5 ,, 65 — tº e & I, 3 I 6 tº gº tº 1,259 tº º tº 95 5 ,, 75 — e tº º 3,881 ſº tº º 3,704 tº º º 25 5 All ages © º º I,oo 6 © tº tº 877 & C & Males 15 In conclusion, I would merely add that the experience of recent years has confirmed my opinion that Summer Diarrhoea is caused by the pollution of air, water, and food with some product or products of the decomposition of organic matter during very hot weather. 1 Calculated from the figures given in the Supplements to the 35th and 45th Annual Reports of the Registrar-General. 3Io - STUDIES IN STAT/STICS CHAP. CHAPTER XVI. ON SOME STATISTICAL INDICATIONS OF A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SCARLATINA, ERYSIPELAS, PUERPERAL FEVER, AND CERTAIN OTHER DISEASES." ABOUT a year and a half ago the idea occurred to me that by plotting out by the graphic method the annually fluctuating death-rates from various causes in England and Wales, as given by Dr. Farr, in the Registrar-General's Annual Reports, interesting results might be obtained, more especially as the resulting curves would allow of easy comparison. It must be well known to all present that results which can only be arrived at with much labour, and some uncertainty, by the study of long columns of figures, become at once obvious when the same figures are reduced to diagrams. The object of my investigations was, not so much to ascertain the fluctuations in the fatality of the several diseases, interesting as these may be in themselves, but rather, by the careful comparison of the curves, to see whether any, and if so what, relations subsist between diseases believed to be distinct, with a view to correcting, if need be, the methods of classi- fication now in use, but chiefly to search for aetiological clues. - I accordingly traced eighty-nine curves, representing * Read before the Epidemiological Society of London, April 7th, 1880. 2 a. e. in 1878. xvi SCAA/LA TIAWA AAWD PUAERPERAL FE VER 3 II the death-rates per million in England and Wales from as many “alleged causes”; the figures being obtained from tables following the “letters of Dr. Farr to the Registrar- General” published in the 35th and 41st annual reports. By a simple application of the law of combinations, it will be found that to compare all these eighty-nine curves, two and two together, would involve 3,916 operations. Of these I have as yet actually made only 1,425, leaving still no fewer than 2,491 to be performed. However, as the zymotic diseases have been compared with nearly all the others, there is reason to believe that the most important results have been obtained already, and that the remainder of the work will be less fruitful. . I should remark that several of the causes of death have not been examined at all, since the numbers are so very small that they could not, by any possibility, yield trustworthy results. Since 1855, the Registrar-General has given, in the form of a supplementary table, the deaths in England and Wales in each year, classified under very many more heads than are shown in the other tables. To insure the greatest accuracy attainable, I have abandoned my first charts, and am now working from the “supplementary tables,” the labour of calculating the rates being reduced to a minimum by the aid of the arithmometer of M. Thomas—a most useful machine. I soon found it impracticable to draw all the curves to one vertical scale, and finally decided on the method employed by Messrs. Buchan and Mitchell," viz. of finding the mean for each disease, and plotting out the annual death-rate at so much per cent. in excess or defect of this mean. This entails, of course, additional calculations; but the results obtained are strictly com- parable, and enable us to note with ease such facts as 1 Journal of the Scottish Meteorological Society, 1874, p. 187. 312 * STUD/ES WAV S 7.4 TVSTICS CHAP. that two diseases are affected in the same manner by hot summers, but the one threefold as much as the other: so that it is, perhaps, allowable to infer that, in the former, summer heat is a main cause of the disease; while, in the latter, it is but one of many contributory causes. By employing in all cases death-rates per thousand living in each year (or per million, as is more convenient when the death-rate from a single disease is under consideration), all fallacies due to increase of population are avoided, or rather reduced within the limits of error of the estimates of population. It is my intention this evening to put before you, very shortly, certain of the indications of the above 1,425 com- parisons. A variety of circumstances have interfered with my work; so that I must ask you to consider this as a preliminary paper, which may or may not be followed by others, according on the one hand as you may be dis- posed to hear more from me on the subject, and on the other as further work may lead to results of importance, or the reverse. At a very early stage the close relationships of the curves of diphtheria and croup caught my attention, and soon after the practical identity of the curves of puerperal fever and erysipelas. More recently I observed that the disease curves may be divided into four groups at least, viz.:-I. The diarrhoeal group, characterized by having the greatest mortality during the summer quarter, and by being most fatal in years with hot and dry summers. II. The bronchitic group, characterized by having the greatest mortality during the winter months, and being most fatal in years with very cold winters. III. The scarlatinal group, under consideration to-night. IV. A provisional group, comprising all the other diseases which do not appear, so far as we know at present, to be greatly ENGLAND AND WALES. DEATH – RATES FROM ERYSIPELAS, SCARLATINA AND CERTAIN OTHER DISEASES WITH RAIN AT GREENWICH. ALL AGES AND BOTH SEXES. '60 "61 '62 "6 - - '6 - : - : 7. - RAIN AT GREENWICH ſº M. A. PUERPERAL FEVER ERYS. PELAS RHEUMATSM OF HEART scarlatina | ARYING|S QUINSY CROUP DIPHTHE RIA CYNANCHE MALIGNA stan Fond's GEogº aer. The dotted ſines indicate means for the twenty four years 1855-78. wroad's GeoGº estae The curves express the fluctuation percent above or below the Mean. Each division of the vertical scale corresponding to 10% The figures at the side give the actual values of the Means of the Death-Rates per miſſion persons estimated to be ſiving XVI SCARZATIVA AND PUERPERAL FEVER 31 3 influenced, or at all events mainly regulated, by any meteorological conditions. Among these may be men- tioned small-pox, measles, whooping-cough, phthisis, and (probably) enteric fever. Remember, that this classification is provisional, and is only drawn up to facilitate the examination of the death- returns of England and Wales. Thus, for instance, I know full well that whooping-cough is most fatal in the early months of the year, and that if whooping-cough breaks out during cold weather, it is more likely to be fatal than under the reverse conditions; but what I do assert is, that taking a long term of years, and the whole kingdom into account, the mortality from whooping-cough does not vary directly with the coldness of the winters, as that of bronchitis or pneumonia does. The larger diagram (Plate XIX.) accompanying this paper shows certain curves constructed in the manner above described, and grouped together in order to bring out as clearly as may be the points to which I wish to draw your attention. The vertical columns divide the curves into twenty-four portions, corresponding to the twenty-four years, 1855-78.* The horizontal portions of the coloured lines mark the distances above or below the mean of the death-rate in question in each year—on one Scale throughout, each small division corresponding to 10 per cent. The horizontal lines are connected by sloping lines, to give continuity to the curve, and to facilitate comparisons. - The mean death-rate from each disease per million persons living in England and Wales is indicated by a * In revising this paper I have carried forward the curves (without altering the means) to 1880. As some changes in classification were introduced by the Registrar-General in 1881, I have thought it well to stop the diagram at that point. The figures which form the basis of the diagram are given in the table at the end of this chapter (pp. 332-34). 3I4 STUDIES I/V S74 7/S 7TWCS CHAP: dotted line of corresponding colour, and by the figure at the right hand, while the names of the diseases are given on the left hand in corresponding colours, viz. pyaemia, puerperal fever, erysipelas, “rheumatism, with disease of heart or pericardium,” Scarlatina, laryngitis, quinsy, croup, diphtheria, and Cynanche maligna. It will be seen that the curve of scarlatina presents four marked elevations, or periods of epidemic fatality, separated by three equally well marked depressions, or periods of minimum fatality. In the most fatal year (1863), the scarlatina death-rate exceeded the mean by 73 per cent.; whereas, in the least fatal year (1861), it fell to 47 per cent. below the mean. These four periods of epidemic fatality are, to some greater or less extent, apparent in all the ten curves, the fluctuations varying more in degree than in direction. In the curves of puerperal fever, erysipelas, pyaemia, and “rheumatism accompanied with heart affection,” the fourth or last epidemic period, 1874-5, is the most marked ; whereas, in the curves of cynanche maligna, diphtheria, and quinsy, the first epidemic period is far the most prominent. The second epidemic period is most distinct in scarla- tina, croup, and diphtheria; the third in Scarlatina and “rheumatism with heart affection,” being but faintly indicated in most of the other curves. Cynanche maligna and quinsy would not be sufficiently important causes of death (averaging only 17 and 14 per 1,000,000 respectively), were it not for their very interest- ing relations to diphtheria. Previously to 1855, but few deaths from diphtheria were registered in England and Wales, and they were not kept separate in Dr. Farr's analysis of the Registrar- General's returns. }} XVI SCARLA 7TWAVA AAVZ) A UAEA'A'AºA'A L APE VER 315 In 1856 the total number of deaths registered in England and Wales, as due to diphtheria, increased from 186 to 229—not by any means a striking rise—but in the same year the deaths attributed to quinsy rose from 371 to 413 ; whereas those assigned to cynanche maligna rose from 199 to 374, a very notable increase. In 1857 the diphtheria deaths rose further, from 229 to 310; those attributed to quinsy from 413 to 485; but those attri- buted to cynanche maligna increased suddenly from 374 to 1,273, such a leap up as must have alarmed the few persons who were cognizant of the fact. This may be taken as probably the first indication of the coming out- burst of what was long spoken of as “the new disease, diphtheria,” though probably, in reality, but an old foe under a new name. In 1858, practitioners began to be more alive to the real facts of the case; and although the deaths attributed to quinsy and cynanche maligna showed still further increments, viz. from 485 to 623 in one case, and from 1,273 to 1,770 in the other, the deaths more correctly assigned to diphtheria rose with alarming suddenness from 310 to 4,836. By 1859 the great stir created by letters in the press had drawn the attention of all observers to “the new disease,” and, accordingly, we see that in that year the curves of quinsy and cynanche maligna began to fall more rapidly even than they rose; and, with the exception of the period of the recrudescence of the diphtheria epidemic in 1863, have continued to fall, till those diseases now have a very insignificant place in the list, and accounted for only 216 and 179 deaths respectively, on the average of the five years 1874-78.” 1 Quinsy caused, in 1878-79-80 respectively, 294, 299, and 353 deaths; after 1880 it was classed with sore throat, and the two together reached a maximum in 1884, corresponding to a diphtheria maximum. 316 STUD/ES / W ..STA 7TMS 77CS' CHAP. But, meanwhile, diphtheria rose, in 1859, from 4,836 to 9,587. The epidemic may be said to have lasted, with diminished but varying fatality, till 1865. During the five years 1874-78, the deaths averaged 3,092, or about one-sixth of the number slain by scarlatina." It must be borne in mind, however, that the disease is far more prevalent in the United States, in Germany, and, more especially just now,” in Russia, than it is with us. The croup curve seems to have been affected in like manner, but in the earlier years to a less extent, by the epidemic of diphtheria. Since 1861 the curves of croup and of diphtheria have been so very similar, as to suggest that at the very least there is great confusion in the diagnosis of the two diseases, and even to be a weighty argument in favour of those pathologists who maintain their identity. Pyaemia has no place in the Registrar-General's reports prior to 1862, and there can be little doubt that the steady rise from that year must be attributed to changes of nomenclature; for if not, what is to be said for our boasted improvements in operative surgery and hospital hygiene 3 In spite of this steady rise, its resem- blance to the curves of erysipelas and puerperal fever is strikingly suggestive. You have, probably, already observed that the curves of erysipelas and puerperal fever are practically identical, with the exception that the increased fatality of puerperal fever in 1874-5, was about twice as great as that of 1. From 1878 to 1886 the death-rate from scarlatina fell steadily from 753 to 215 per million, and during the five years ending with 1888 averaged only 269. On the other hand there has been a recrudescence of diphtheria, the rate (including cynanche maligna) having risen from 109 (in 1880) to 185 (in 1884); the average in the five years 1884-88 has been 164, or three-fifths of the scarlatinal average for the same years. * ... e. in 1880. XVI SCAR/LA 7TWAVA AAWD A UERAEA2/&A W. FE VE/8 317 erysipelas. I confess that I find it difficult to avoid the conclusion that they are both due to one poison. Though the puerperal fever curve has great points of resemblance to the scarlatina curve, it is far more like that of erysipelas; it is also extremely like that of “rheumatism, with disease of heart or pericardium.” So that we may infer some close relationship to rheumatic fever—a point that I must reserve for further investigation, but may merely remark that the erysipelas curve is still more like the rheumatism curve. The small diagram on the next page attempts to repre- sent the mutual relationships of the various diseases in the large diagram—the distances between the circles being supposed proportional to the closeness of relationship. Dr. Thos. C. Minor, of Cincinnati, U.S.A., writing, in 1874, on “Erysipelas and Child-bed Fever,” “ said (accord- ing to an abstract in the Practitioner), in reference to the deaths from these two diseases in the United States in 1870: “1. Erysipelas and child-bed fever seemed to prevail together throughout all the States. 2. Any marked increase, in any one locality, of one disease, was apparently accompanied by a corresponding increase of the other. 3. Where histories of past epidemics, of either disease, were obtainable from any of the States, the apparent connection of the two diseases was noticed by physicians at the time of such epidemics, and remarked on. 4. This relationship indicates that there is an intimate connection existing between child-bed fever and erysipelas, and justifies the inference that in any place where erysipelas is found, there will be found child-bed fever.” Again, referring to an epidemic of child-bed fever in Cincinnati, Dr. Minor says— * Erysipelas and Child-bed Fever, Cincinnati, 1874. Robert Clarke and Co. 3.18 "STUD/ES ZAV STA 77S77CS CHAP. “1. The two diseases, child-bed fever and erysipelas, prevailed at the same time, in the same localities. DIAGRAM SHOWING SUGGESTED RELATIONSHIP OF THE SEVERAL DISEASES. G) Scarlatina Puerperal Fever Rheumatism of Heart Cynanche Maligna// Diphtheria Croup O 2. Where an isolated death from child-bed fever was noted outside of the infected districts, a corresponding death Laryngitis L O N DO N WEEKLY DEATHS FROM SCARLATINA & CERTAIN OTHER DISEASES Excess or Defect per cent compared with the Mean. AVERAGE OF 30 YEARS, 1845-74. MEAN AWERAGE JAN, FEB, MARCH APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG, SEP, oct.|Nov. DEC. º.º. T T- -T-T- - --- SCARLATINA 4-9-6 ERYS. PELAS 7-3 PUERPERAL 4- FEVER O R-EUMATISM 5-3. LARYING|T|S 5-3 (CROUP |(O - (5 DIPHTHERLA 9-1 (1861-1874) QUINSY - |- 3 H JAN, FEB, MARCH | APR, MAY JUNE JULY AUG, S E P. OCT, NOW. I DEC. º - stanford's crocº esrael Lowdow ºt The numbers have been adjusted by B/oxam's Method previous to the construction of s the curves. - Scale. Each small division of the vertical scale corresponds to ten per cent of excess : or defect from the Mean. XVI SCA RZA TV/VA AAWD AE’UERPAEAA/L APE VER 319 from erysipelas was noted in the same locality. This was almost invariably the case. 3. Infants die of erysipelas shortly after or before their mothers die of child-bed fever. 4. A few physicians attending child-bed fever cases and erysipelas cases at the same time, as exhibited by the death-register, were the most unfortunate in their practice. 5. Physicians having large obstetric practices, but who were known to be believers in the close connection of child-bed fever and erysipelas, returned few death certi- ficates from either causes.” Again, on examining the alleged connection of typhus fever and scarlatina with child-bed fever, Dr. Minor found that— “1. Epidemic typhus is not always associated with an outbreak of epidemic child-bed fever. 2. Epidemic scarlet fever is very seldom associated with an outbreak of epidemic child-bed fever, or vice versä. 3. Epidemic erysipelas is invariably associated with an outbreak of child-bed fever, or vice versä.” I will now examine the subject from a different point of view. The smaller diagram (Plate XX.) is reproduced with modifications of detail from an admirable paper by Messrs. Buchan and Mitchell, in the Journal of the Scottish Meteorological Society, by the kind permission of the authors. These gentlemen analysed the weekly mortality returns for London for the thirty years 1845-74, and con- structed curves showing the average numbers of deaths from a number of causes in each successive week of the year. The curves are on such a scale that in every case the same percentage deviation from the mean is represented by the same distance above or below the dotted line indicating the mean average weekly number of deaths. A little reflection will show that the increase of population does not greatly affect the result, except that great epidemics 32O STUD/ES / W S TA TWSTWCS CHAP. in recent years must disturb the curve more than epidemics of like relative extent in the earlier years. Diphtheria was not separated from Scarlatina in the London returns until 1859, but as there is reason to suppose that but compara- tively few deaths from this cause occurred in London in 1855-58, this is of little consequence. The coloured lines in this diagram correspond to one year—that is, one average year, which is divided by the vertical black lines into 52 weeks. The months are indi- cated by figures at the top and bottom. For the sake of distinctness the areas representing the excess of mortality above the mean are coloured in. The coloured figures to the right hand indicate the mean average number of deaths from each cause in every week in London, and the distance of the continuous coloured line above or below the mean indi- cates the percentage deviation from that number, one small division of the vertical scale corresponding to ten per cent. It must be premised that “laryngitis” in this diagram comprises laryngismus stridulus and Oedema glottidis (the latter of small account), which have been excluded in the construction of the larger chart; also, “rheumatism” in- cludes all cases returned under that heading—presumably many of them chronic joint affections, whereas these cases, along with many others, are excluded in the larger dia- gram. “Rheumatism, with disease of heart or pericardium,” may be fairly regarded as comprising few cases other than acute rheumatism, though of course not including by any means all the deaths due to rheumatic fever. The colours on the two charts otherwise correspond. Now, in certain respects, all the eight curves resemble one another. All the curves are above the mean from the last week in November to the first week in January inclusive, and they are all below the mean from the first week in June to the second week in August inclusive. XVI SCARLA TINA AND PUERPERAZ APE VER 32 I There are grounds for believing that if the deaths from laryngismus stridulus could be separated from laryngitis deaths the curve would be somewhat modified, so as to approach more nearly that of croup. As it is, this curve re- sembles more closely that of bronchitis than my examination of the annually fluctuating death-rates from these two causes would have led me to expect. Messrs. Buchan and Mitchell state that the sudden depression of the curve in January is almost constant from year to year. May not this be caused by the deaths from laryngismus stridulus commencing to rise to their maximum at this point, as the curves of epilepsy and convulsions do * Omitting for a moment Scarlatina from consideration, and dismissing laryngitis as unsatisfactory, we have re- maining six curves bearing a very striking resemblance one to another, which is more especially marked in the case of erysipelas and puerperal fever. The scarlatina curve, if shifted about five weeks further on, would be not unlike the other curves. It is conceivable that similar causes may tend to the production of Scarlatina first, and later on to the other affections—somewhat as a change of type is frequently observed during the course of an epidemic, notably in cholera. It should be added, that all of these curves have been modified from those published in the memoir referred to by the use of what is known as “Bloxam's method,” whereby, instead of taking the average number of deaths in each 1 Dr. B. A. Whitelegge has called my attention to the fact that the croup curve has two maxima, one in March, the other in December. He believes that this is due to confusion in diagnosis, the spring maximum corresponding to cases which should have been returned as laryngitis, whereas the winter maximum corresponds to cases that should more correctly have been attributed to diphtheria. In short, he believes that there is no such disease as croup, and I am very much disposed to agree with him. - y 322. STUD/ES IN STA TVS TYCS CHAP. * * particular week, the mean of the average of that week, the week preceding, and the week following is taken. The method is very useful when the number of deaths or the number of years is too small to give a smooth curve : inequalities produced in accordance with the law of proba- bilities are removed, and a close approximation is obtained to the curve that would result from the plotting out of a large number of deaths for a longer term of years. You will naturally ask, “Is there any peculiarity of season or otherwise which determines, or has a share in determining, the fatality of this group of diseases in certain years?” As the curves as a rule rise in the autumn and remain high throughout the winter, one is naturally led to suspect that a very hot summer, or a very hard winter, is the determining cause. So far as I have been able to investi- gate the point, it does not appear that the heat of summer or the cold of winter varies either in a direct or inverse relation to the fatality of these diseases. But when the amount of rain is examined from this point of view, it appears that there is some kind of inverse relationship between the two. The same result is obtained whether the amount of the fall or the number of days on which it falls is considered, the connection being somewhat closer in the latter case. I have calculated the percentage variation from the mean of both the rainfall and the number of rainy days, and added the two together. The result is shown at the top of the larger diagram, by the blue area, the ordinates being measured from the top downwards, so that the curve formed by the line limiting the blue area is placed upside down, and the inverse relation appears as a direct relation, and is thus much more easily realized. (Dr. Buchanan's method.) This relationship is nearly as close as that which sub- XV I SCA R/LA 7//VA AAWD PUERPERA/L FE VER 323 sists between diarrhoea and hot summers on the one hand, or bronchitis and cold winters on the other ; and it is strikingly suggestive. How the rainfall influences the fatality of these diseases (we do not know how far it may be related to their prevalence) is another question. Assum- ing the connection to be real, it seems most natural to suppose that the frequent fall of rain purifies the air, and removes from it the particles of contagious matter; that it acts, to some extent, as the process of inunction in scarlatina is supposed to act, by making the poison less diffusible. The average distribution of the rainfall through- out the year does not throw any light upon the question ; most rain falls in the five months June–October, during which period the scarlatina curve is continually rising. There are many indications, in recent medical writings, of a growing opinion that the process of analysis has been carried too far in our classification of disease ; and there can be no doubt that, more especially considered from an aetiological standpoint, such a result is to be deprecated. If great care be not taken, such confusion may be created as “species making” has caused in Zoology and botany. Increased accuracy of diagnosis is all important in this connection; without a clear diagnosis the death certificate cannot be filled up in a lucid manner, and consequently the death cannot be placed in the appropriate pigeon-hole by the abstractor. If we get our sub-groups correct it is easy by lumping them together to diminish their number, or to alter the larger groups and classes. It is, moreover, important not to lose sight of the possible influence of the individual on the disease that attacks him. There may in fact be a question of soil; we know indeed already that the germs of some diseases grow with facility in the tissues of certain patients, whereas they find difficulty in effecting a lodgment at all 324. STUDIAES /W STA TIS TVCS CHAP. in others. May it not be that the process of development differs among the individuals that succumb to attack Or even granted that the germ “breeds true,” may not differences in the constitution of the host lead to greatly different symptoms—even to what we now call a different disease ? Further observations on this point are greatly needed. APPENDIX : AUGUST 1890. THE returns of ten more years are now available. As regards rainfall, one of these years (1879) was exceptionally wet; three (1880, 1882, and 1888) were decidedly wet; two (1884 and 1887) were dry, whereas the other four were about the average. In the year 1881 extensive alterations in the classifica- tion of the alleged causes of death were introduced by Dr. Ogle. Although there can be no manner of doubt that these changes were in almost every case a great improvement, yet, in a series of statistics, changes of any sort, howbeit imperative, are of necessity an evil per se. The particular changes referred to so far affect the causes of death now under consideration that the curves of “rheumatism of the heart,” “quinsy,” and “cynanche maligna” cannot be carried beyond 1880. As regards the last there is no reason to regret its absorption into diphtheria ; quinsy, again, is of little moment, but it is a matter of regret that there should be a break in the statistics of “rheumatism of the heart,” since they are important, and promised interesting results. It is a good set-off against this inconvenience that the new group “rheumatic fever, rheumatism of heart,” is better than the old. The pyaºmia curve has in recent years exhibited no xvi. SCARLA 7/MA AND PUERPERAL FE VER distinct relationship to any of the others; it has been generally higher than the average of 1855–78, notably in 1879-80-81. The puerperal fever curve was above the average in nine out of the ten years, and the disease was exceptionally fatal in 1882 and 1883. In order to compare the years following 1880 with that year and those preceding it, allowance must be made for the following circumstance:— In 1881, with a view to making the returns more complete, the Registrar-General, in certain cases in which the certificates of death were not satisfactorily filled up, wrote to the medical men who had signed them for further particulars. Thus a letter was sent in every case (among others) in which a woman of child-bearing age was stated to have died of either peritonitis, septicalmia, or pyaºmia." As a result of these special inquiries, which were continued in subsequent years, numerous deaths have been added to the heading puerperal fever, so that in 1881 and 1882 the alleged mortality from that cause was increased by 13 per cent., and in 1884 by 7 per cent. If, however, full allowance be made for this, the years 1881-85 will remain distinguished by a puerperal fever mortality only exceeded by that of 1874 and 1875. This increased mortality is quite contrary to what one might have expected; but it is probably to some extent due to increased accuracy in the returns, as medical men gradually learn the scientific importance of the certificate of death. The mortality from erysipelas has, unlike that of puerperal fever, been somewhat low in the last ten years, having reached the average only in 1882; nevertheless a close correspondence in the directions of the fluctuations of the two curves has been maintained. * Forty-fourth Report, pp. xx, xxi. 326 S 7"UD/ES MAV STA TYST/CS CHAP. The scarlet fever death-rate fell in 1879, and in every succeeding year till 1886, so that it then amounted to but 25 per cent. of the average. There is good reason to believe that the increased use of fever hospitals for the isolation of the sick" has materially contributed to this result. In consequence of this continued fall there is little correspondence to be observed between this and other curves, including that of rain. The curve of laryngitis shows a fair amount of corre- spondence with those of croup and diphtheria, which again h \ve continued to run similar courses. Diphtheria was more fatal in 1884 than it had been for 19 years; it has indeed been exceptionally fatal since 1881, so that it now approaches scarlet fever in importance. It should be mentioned that from 1881 onwards the recorded mor- tality has been raised by about five per cent. by the inclusion of cymanche maligna deaths under the same heading.” It cannot be said that the close inverse relation- ship between several of these diseases and the rainfall observed in the earlier period has been maintained, but in the very wet year 1879, erysipelas, puerperal fever, and rheumatism of the heart were all at a minimum, whereas in the dry year 1884 diphtheria was at a maximum and puerperal fever very high. The exact figures from 1855 to 1888 will be found in a table at the end of the chapter. Dr. Astley Gresswell “ has independently observed the inverse relationship between rainfall and scarlet * See below, p. 327. * This applies to the rates shown in the table on p. 334, but not to those published by the Registrar-General. In the latter, cynanche maligna is throughout included with diphtheria. * A Contribution to the Watural History of Scarlatina, by Dr. D. Astley Gresswell, M.A., M.D., Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1890, p. 191. XVI SCA R/LA 7TWAVA AND PUERAEA2AA/L FE WEA’ 327 fever, and he calls attention to the fact that the effect seems to persist, that is, that a second wet season following a depression of the scarlet fever curve depresses it still further, and he suggests that possibly the long-continued heavy (summer) rainfall during the period 1878-82 “may have had to do with the want of increase of scarlatinal mortality in the period 1883-87.” He adds—“It may be remarked further that the mortality did rise in the last of these five years, in which the total rainfall was below the average, and again that it fell in 1888, when the rainfall was again largely increased.” Dr. Gresswell considers that deficient sunshine, an ordinary accompaniment of heavy rainfall, may have something to do with the matter ; and he adds some very suggestive remarks" as to the way in which meteorological conditions may affect human scarlatina through its influence on some lower animal, such as the cow, which may serve as an intermediate “host” to the organism which we may suppose to be the cause of the disease. In 1876 the late Dr. Matthews Duncan read an im- portant paper On the alleged occasional epidemic pre- wolence of puerperal pyaºmia or puerperal fever, and of erysipelas,” which I unfortunately did not see till after my paper appeared. In it Dr. Matthews Duncan set himself to prove from the London statistics that erysipelas and puerperal fever are not epidemic diseases, or at all events that they have never appeared in the epidemic form in London since the commencement of the Registrar-General's records. It has always seemed to me that the very word “ epidemic " is so vague that discussions as to the epidemic or non-epidemic character of diseases are apt to be as fruitless as many of the speculations of metaphysicians. The increased precision of medical knowledge naturally 1 Op. cit. pp. 195-197. * Edinburgh Medical Journal, March 1876. 328 - STUDIES IN STATYSTICS - CHAP. thrusts into the background theories as to mysterious influences in the air, but brings more and more into prominence facts tending to prove the propagation of disease from patient to patient. The really important matter is not whether epidemics of puerperal fever occur, but whether the disease is propagated from case to case, and if so, what conditions favour its propagation ? No one would, I suppose, deny that puerperal fever is a “septic” disease, i.e. that it is connected in some way with processes of putrefaction or fermentation, and few would deny that the poison or ferment may be conveyed from one case to another. In regard to the first of these propositions I would refer to Dr. Boxall’s recently pub- lished paper." Personally I much question whether any disease is ever really “epidemic ’’ in the sense given to those words in Dr. Matthews Duncan's paper (quoting Dr. Priestley), i. e. “dependent on general atmospheric or other influences which pervade a community, as distinctive from the miasms of unhealthy hospitals, or the propagation of the disease from one patient to another by inoculation.” The com- municable diseases are (certainly in the enormous majority of cases) spread by infection, mediate or direct, from case to case. Atmospheric conditions, doubtless in many instances, favour or tend to oppose such spread. As regards its relationship to scarlet fever, I am at one with Dr. Matthews Duncan, but cannot at all agree with his conclusion that puerperal fever is not very closely related to erysipelas. In the first place I find two flaws in his argument. In spite of what he says, his great diagram is deceptive owing to his comparison in a diagram on the same vertical scale of a common ailment like scarlet fever, with a comparatively uncommon ailment like erysipelas 4- l Fever in Child-bed, by Robert Boxall, M.B., B.C., Cantab, M.R.C.P. XVI SCAR LA 7TWAVA AND PUERPEAA/L FE VEA’ 329 or puerperal fever. That the force of mere numbers greatly deceives the eye may be seen by plotting out the puerperal fever deaths in the eventful (I will not say “ epidemic”) year 1874 on a scale four times larger. The other point is this: Scarlet fever and puerperal fever differ entirely in their pabulum—the one attacks mainly children, who are a large proportion of the community, and by constantly moving about, and mixing in schools and other places, afford great facilities for the dissemination of any communicable disease that may appear among them ; the other, ea hypothesi, attacks only puerperal women, a very small fraction of the community, who are by the very nature of their case isolated from one another to a remarkable extent. Hence one would not expect a puerperal disease, however infectious, to occur in such extensive outbreaks as are common in the case of scarlet fever. In the second place, I entirely deny that there can be said to be two mean mortalities from scarlatina, one including, one excluding epidemics. It is very singular that Dr. Matthews Duncan should have lighted upon rheumatism as a typical non-epidemic disease; he states that he selected it on account of the similarity of its numbers to erysipelas and puerperal fever. Now, in my case, after comparing together the curves of scores of diseases, I was surprised to find that the curve of rheumatism bore a curious resemblance to those of erysipelas and puerperal fever, a resemblance that so far as I know is not equally marked in the case of any other disease. The fact that the curve of “ rheumatism of the heart” is still more like those under discussion suggests strongly that if we could obtain the true curve of “rheumatic fever” or “acute rheumatism,” we should find a still stronger resemblance.” 1 It should be explained that until 1880 the Registrar-General's 330 STUDYES IN STA TYST/CS CHAP. To pursue more into detail the apparent relationship between these three diseases I have, as the result of no small labour, constructed a diagram (Plate XXI.), showing for each of the eleven Registration Divisions of England and Wales the deviation from the mean per cent. of the death-rates from erysipelas, puerperal fever, and rheu- matism during the thirty-four years 1855-88. Unfor- tunately the data for “rheumatism of the heart” are not available for Registration Divisions except for a few years. At the bottom of the diagram are given the corresponding curves for the whole country. In the following table (p. 331) will be found the population in millions, and the average death-rate from each of these diseases in each Registration Division; also the ratio of the maximum to the minimum death-rate, which Dr. Matthews Duncan takes as a measure of the epidemic character of a disease. The diagram (Plate XXI.) affords a good illustration of the value of large numbers in statistical inquiries. The curves for England and Wales exhibit smaller fluctuations than those for sections of the country, and the corre- spondences between them are in nearly all cases much closer. Nevertheless, if the diagram be looked at as a whole, or analysed in numerical detail, it will be found that the correspondences in nearly every case are far closer than mere chance coincidence would account for. The great outbreak (if the word epidemic is inadmissible) of both erysipelas and puerperal fever in 1874-5 is very marked throughout, but more especially in the West Midland, Northern, and Welsh divisions. The curves of crysipelas bear a closer resemblance to Returns gave “rheumatism” as a cause of death, but also in certain tables subdivided this into “rheumatism of the heart” and other “rheumatism.” In subsequent reports “rheumatic fever and rheumatism of heart,” and “rheumatism” have been shown separately. „Țins， ſº spagnetny wpwſ 98.98.+8.Z8,08.94.94.+/.ZZ.04.99.99,+9,Z9,09.99.998 M. ZZ.94.£4.IZ.69,Z9.99,£9,19.69.Zº:9981, * 8881–998.I （ NOISIAIO HOW3 HO N\73 W BIHI WOH + NOILVIABCI 30W LN3OH3 + 3HL 9NIMOHS WS11 w W na Hº ? H3A3+ T\/83,J&J,End º Sv.Tad1 SAAB W08* ‘9 N IAIT NOITTI W H BA SELV H-HIV/30 * SGHTVAA (INV (INVTONCI （HO SNOISIAICI NOII VYHLSHOCH}[ XVI SCAR/LA 7TWAVA AAWD PUERPEA’AZ FE VER 331 REGISTRATION DIVISIONs of ENGLAND and WALEs. PopULATION in MILLIONs and Aver AGE DEATH-RATES per MILLION from ERYSIPELAs, PUERPERAL FEVER, and RHEUMATISM. Also RATIO. of MAXIMUM to MINIMUM DEATH-RATE in each case. 2 Thirty-four years 1855-88. Average death-rate Ratio of Maximum per 1,000,000. to Minimum. Registration Division. g Erysipe- | Puerperal Rheuma- Ery- | Puer. las. Fever. tism. sip. |Fever. | 12 75 134 || 2:9 || 3-1 || 1:9 88 54 116 || 2:6 || 2:6 | I-8 92 58 115 || 2:7 || 3:6 2 3 86 55 109 || 2:2 3-9 |2-8 72 48 || 113 || 2:3 || 3:4 || 2:2 84 66 118 || 3-1 || 3’9 || 1:9 81 62 104 || 3:4 5'5 || 2:o 90 83 136 || 3-3 || 3’5 || 2:3 94 76 122 || 3-1 || 3:4 || 2:1 84 84 92 || 3:3 5-3 || 2:8 57 78 128 || 3’o 4-6 || 2:3 ; | Rheu. I. London II./South-Eastern III./South Midland IV. Eastern V. South-Western VI. West Midland VII. North Midland VIII. North-Western IX.] Yorkshire ... Y. Northern ... tº tº e XI./Monmouth & Wales England & Wales...} 22:8 87 69 I 2 I 2 6 || 3-1 || 1:9 d those of puerperal fever than either does to rheumatism, but “rheumatism” is too vague a term for our purpose, and another ten years must pass before it will be possible to come to any sound conclusion as to “rheumatic fever.” As regards erysipelas and puerperal fever it must, I think, be admitted that a relationship which holds good in the several parts of the country, as well as in the entire area, cannot be fortuitous. I would ask the reader to compare the curves of erysipelas and puerperal fever in England and Wales with those of bronchitis and pneumonia on the one hand, and those of measles and whooping-cough on the other (see Plate XXIII. p. 371). He will observe that though the puerperal fever curve does not usually fluctuate as much as those of the latter diseases, it does fluctuate much more than the former. I have no wish to dogmatize, but prefer to leave the facts for others to interpret. 332 CHAP. STUD/ZS //W S 7.4 TVST/CS ENGLAND AND WALES. DEATHS and DEATH-RATES from certain diseases, also the percentage fluctuation of the DEATH-RATE from the MEAN of 24 years 1855–1878." Pyaamia. Puerperal Fever. Erysipelas. * of 3 |.3 °F | 3 *: ||.: = | 5 || 3 |...} := | f = | 3 |...} := | 5 § # 3 #|##| 3 |##|##| 3 |##|##| 3 |##|#5 à g|É's ă ălă's F |##|É's à g|É's 1855 | – | – || – || 1079 57 | 91|2102|112 121| 740 || 39| 85 1856 || – | – | – || 1067| 56 | 89, 1998 Io; 115|| 681 || 36|| 78 1857 | – | – || – || 836|| 43 69|1478| 77 | 84| 498- 26 56 1858 || – | – | – || 1068| 55 | 88|2000|Io 3 |112| 667 || 34 74 1859 | – | – | – |1238|| 63 |101|1924| 98|107| 784 || 4o 86 1860 | – || – || – || 987| 5o 80|1662| 84|92| 753| 38|| 82 1861 | – || – | – || 886 44 || 70 1539| 76 83| 661 || 33 71 1862 69| 3 || 21| 940, 46 | 73|1520) 75|| 82| 704 || 35 | 75 1863 |159| 8 || 47|1155 56 | 89, 1906| 92 100 870 || 42 91 1864 |202| Io 59|1484 || 71 |113|2091 || Loo 109|1001 || 48 || 104 1865 |242| II | 70|1333| 63 |101|1953| 92 100| 951 || 45 98 1866 |273| 13 || 78||1197 56 | 89 1665| 78| 85| 846 || 4o 86 1867 |246|| 11 || 70|1066|| 49 || 78|1445| 67 | 73| 793 ||37 || 79 1868 |337| 15 94|1196 || 54 86 1942| 88|96 || 1071 || 49 |106 1869 |355| 16 || 98||1181 53| 85 1853| 83|91|1160 52 |113 1870 |407|18 |111|1492 | 66|105|2120. 94103|1230|| 55 |119 1871 |375|| 16 || 101|1464| 64 |102 22.16|| 97 |106|1203 || 53 |114 1872 |366|| 16 || 98|1400| 61 | 97, 1771 || 77 | 84|1049 || 45 99 1873 |405 || 17 | 107|1740| 74 |118|2027 | 87 95|1034 44| 96 1874 |674 29 |175|3108||131 |209|3358|142 155||1363 58|125 1875 |645| 27 | 166|2505 Ios | 167|3017|126||138||1817 | 76|164 1876 |549| 23 |139||1746|| 72 115|2327 96 105|1591 | 66|142 1877 |584| 24 ||146|1444|| 59 942077| 85| 93||1504 || 61||133 1878 |577|| 23 |143|1415 57 91|1870|75|| 82|1426 57 124 an of ºbso 16° 100||1376 63 |100|1994| 92 100|1017| 46|100 1879 |643|25 | 156|1464| 58|92|1824. 72 78||1356 53 |116 188o |645 25 | 154|1659| 64|103|2014| 78 85| 1902 || 74 |160 1881 |646|| 25 | 152|2287| 88|140|2314|| 89 |97|2429| 93 e. 1882 |544, 21 |127|2564. 98|155|2435| 92 101|2590| 98 || #. 1883 |512||19||111|2616| 98|156|2166|| 8 || 88|2357| 88| # 1884 |564] 21 | 128|2468 91 ||145|2145| 79| 86|2714|Ioo gă 1885 |484 18 |108|2420 88|140|1996 | 73| 79|2912|106| 3: 1886 |375|| 13 | 83|2078 75||119|1523| 55 60|2530| 91 | *š 1887 ||345| 12 74|2450 87|139||1853| 66||72|2650, 94 = 1888 |392 | 1.4 86|2386| 83 |132|1635 57 62|2697 94| # * Mean of 17 years. 1 The death-rates in this Table from 1855 to 1878 were calculated before the census of 1881 was taken; the rates given for the years. XVI SCA R/LA TWAVA AND PUERPEA’A/L FE VER 333 Scarlet Fever. Laryngitis. Quinsy. Croup # 5'E | 3 #| 3 || 5 # 3 #| 3 |##| 3 #| 3 |# = | 3 à ſº # = | 5 || 5 | # *| ##| 5 || 3 || ##| f |f| = | 5 # P = | R. ſt 3, ſº P 3, p- P 2, ſº 1855 | 16,836 | 89.4|105| 915| 49 || 93|371 20 |145|4,419 235 | 103 1856 || 13,463| 707 || 83||1,068||56 |108|413 22 |160|5,207 |273 |119 1857 |12,558 652 || 76||1,171 61 |117|481 25 |18515,279|274 | 120 1858 |23,600||1,212 ||142||1,202| 62 |119|623| 32 1236|6,220 |319||139 1859 |19,221 976||114|1,112| 56 ||109|426 22 159 |5,636|286 | 125 1860 || 9,681 || 486 || 57| 952| 48 92|319 | 16 |118|4,380 220 96 I 86.I 9,077 || 451 53| 1,023| 51 | 98|342 | 17 | 125 |4,397 219 96 1862 || 14,834|| 728| 85||1,203|| 59 |114|323| 16 |115|5,667 278 121 1863 ||30,475||1,478|173||1,229 6o 115|334|| 16 |119 |6,957 337 147 1864 |29,700 1,422 |167|1,252| 6o |115|378 18 |13216,777 |325||142 1865 |17,700| 837| 98|1,046|| 49 95|319|| 15 111 |5,921 |28o |122 1866 || 11,685| 546|| 64| 960|| 45 86|271 || 13 | 93|5,168|241 105 1867 |12,300|| 567 | 66|| 921| 42 | 83|201 || 9 | 68|4,387 |202 || 88 1868 |21,912| 998||117| 978| 45 || 86|208 || 9 || 70|4,491 |205 | 89 1869 |27,641 1,244|146||1,149 52 | 101|178|| 8 || 59|4,478|202 || 88 1870 |32,5431,446|169||1,142|| 51 98||134|| 6 || 44|4,302 | 191 83 1871 |18,567 815| 96||1,149| 5o 97|144|| 6 || 474,116|181 79 1872 |11,922| 517 | 61||1,061 || 46 | 88||110 || 5 || 35|3,640 | 158| 69 1873 |13,144|| 563| 66||1,254 54 |103||158|| 7 || 50|4,282 | 183| 80 1874 |24,922|1, os4|123||1,397 59 |114|173| 7 || 54|5,010 |2|12 || 93 1875 |20,469| 855|100||1,494 62 |120|226|| 9 || 70|4,542|190 | 83 1876 |16,893| 697 || 82|1,224|| 5o 97.|156 || 6 || 47|4,204|17|3| 75 1877 ||14,456 589| 69| 970 40 || 76|232| 9 || 70|3,910, 159| 69 1878 |18,842|| 7.58| 89||1,014|| 41 || 78|294 | 12 87|4,061 | 163| 71 **lls.435, 854|100li,120 gallool?84 a 100/4.894 2.29.100 24 years 5 54 *! 52 I4. 5 9 1879 |17,613| 694 | 81|1,077| 43 82|299||12 || 87|3,574|141 62 188o |17,404| 675 79||1,022| 4o 77|353 || 14 | 101|3,571 138|| 61 1881 ||14,275|| 548 64|1,160 45 86|——————|3,594 || 138|| 60 1882 |13,732| 520 | 61||1,444 55 |105 * 4,609|174| 76 1883 |12,649| 472 55||1,499| 56 |108 J. E. 4,591 171 || 75 1884 || 10,863| 399 || 47|1,650, 61 |117 § 3. 4,748|175|| 76 1885 || 6,355] 231 27|1,597 58 |112 .# 4,235 | 154 67 1886 || 5,986| 215 25||1,440, 52 99 # = 3,685||132 58 1887 || 7,859| 278 || 33||1,605 || 57 |110 § 3. 3,979| 1.41 61 1888 || 6,378 222 26||1,590) 56 |108 ’s EP 3,632|127 55 1872-78 are consequently a trifle too high, but the error being under one per cent, it was not thought necessary to incur the expense of re-engrav- ing the diagram. The rates from 1879 are based on the revised estimates of population. 334 STUDIES I/V STA TVSTYCS CHAP. wº. Diphtheria. §. Rainfall. ; Rain 2 |##|##| 4 |##|##| 4 |#3| 5 |Élie ă ă ă ăj || 5 |##|##| # |##| = |&#|*: R 3, d. & 3.3% º ſh- ‘s a ‘s ‘s I855 186 10 || 7 || 199| 11 || 62|21.1| 87|144|| 95 || 91 1856 229 12 || 8 || 374| 20 |115|21:5| 89|144|| 95 || 92 1857 310 16 || 10 |1,273| 66 |389|21.4| 88||129| 85 || 87 1858 |4,836|248|161 |1,770. 91 |535||168| 69||12| 74 || 72 1859 |9,587|487|3.16|| 597.| 3o |178|259 107|148| 97 || 102 1863 |4,836 243 | 158 || 376|| 19 |111 |31-6||130|192|| 126 || 128 1861 |4,214|200||136|| 303|| 15 | 89|20:8 86|146|| 96 || 91 1862 |4,562|224|145 || 341|| 17 | 97|26-5|Io9|179| 118||113 1863 |6,123|297 193 || 384| 19 |110 |200| 82||131| 86 || 84 1864 |5,098 244|| 158 || 366|| 18 |103|17:2| 71 |1|12| 74 || 72 1865 |3,952|187|121 | 193| 9 || 54|29-0|1|19||136|| 90 | 105 1866 |2,774 130 | 84 || 226|| 1 || || 62|30-5|126||184| 121 | 123 1867 |2,437|112 | 73 || 163| 8 || 44|28.6||118|163| IoT | 113 1863 |2,847||130 | 84 || 166|| 8 || 45|25-3|Io4|143| 94 || 99 1869 |2,411||168|| 70 || 195| 9 || 52|240 99||147| 97 || 98 1876 |2,566||114| 74 || 133| 6 || 35||18:5| 76||128| 84 || 80 1871 |2,376|104| 67 || 149| 7 || 39|22:3| 92|164|Io8 || 100 1872 |2,051. 89, 58 || 101| 4 || 26||30–0|124|197||130 | 127 1873 |2,384 102 | 66 || 147| 6 || 37|23:4| 96|144|| 95 || 96 1874 |3,366 142|| 92 || 194| 8 || 48|200| 82|139| 91 || 87 1875 |3,236||135| 88 || 179| 7 || 44|282|116|149| 98 || 107 1876 |3,000 124| 80 || 151 || 6 || 37|24'2|Iool 168||111 || 105 1877 |2,569 105 || 69 || 162| 7 || 39|26:9 III | 183| 120 || 116 1878 |3,290 132 86 208| 8 || 49129-2|12o 167|11o | 115 *...]3,309||134|100 348 "100|248 rooſiº too 100 24 years 1879 |2,870|113| 73| 183| 7 || 42|313||129|179|118||134 1883 |2,625 rož | 66|| 185| 7 || 42|29.8|123|152| Ioo | 112 1881 |3,153|12 || *71|——--—125°2|104|154 IoI | 103 1882 |3,992 151 | *88 25-2|roA 179| 118 || 111 1883 |4,218 158| *92 55 21:9| 9ol 173| 114 || 102 1884 |5,020, 185|*108 ## 18.1| 74|150| 99 || 87 1885 |4,471|163| *95 = # 24-0|| 99||166| Io9 || 104 1886 |4,098. 147 | *86 ; : 24.2|roo. 163| Io'ſ 103 1887 |4,443|157 | *92 # 3, 199| 82|141| 93 || 88 1888 |4,815||168| *98 * = E- 27.5||113||167| 11o | 112 * Calculated on the sum of the means of Diphtheria and Cynanche Maligna for the 24 years. XVII THE DISTRIBUTION OF DIAEA/TAAEA’/A s 3 5 CHA PTER XVII. THE GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF DIPHTHERIA IN ENGLAND AND WALES." IN spite of the immense labour and great ability that have been for a long time devoted to the subject, the aetiology of diphtheria is still very obscure. A faint hope of lighting upon some clue has induced me to undertake a tedious investigation into the geographical distribution of 89,603 deaths from the disease, recorded in England and Wales during the 26 years from 1855, when it first appears in the returns of the Registrar-General, to the close of 1880. The influence of age and sex on diphtheria, so far at least as it is a fatal malady, is peculiar. TABLE I.2 Deaths from Diphtheria in England and Wales. ſ Males. Females. Persons. 1855-60 9,844 10,879 20,723 1861-70 18,467 20,987 39,454 1871-80 13,815 15,611 29,426 Total . 42,126 47,477 89,608 1 Reprinted from the Supplementary Report of the Medical Officer of the Local Government Board for 1887. * Compiled from the Supplements to the Registrar-General's 25th, 336 STUDYES IN STA T/S 7./CS CHAP. TABLE II. Deaths from Diphtheria. Persons Living. Females to 1000 Males. Females to 1000 Males. 1855-60 1,105 1,047 1861-70 1,136 1,053 1871–80 1,130 1,054 Average - 1,124 1,051 The facts as to sex are set forth in Tables I. and II., from which we learn that more females die than males by about 12 per cent., whereas the number of females living exceeds that of males by 5 per cent., so that an excess amounting to 7 per cent. remains, which cannot be accounted for by the disparity of the sexes in the general population. Table III.' gives for each sex the number of deaths at several groups of ages, and from it we learn that 57 per cent. of the deaths of males and 51 per cent. of the deaths of females occur in the first five years of life ; in the next five years 25 and 29 per cent. respectively, while after the forty-fifth year is reached only 2% per cent. of the deaths of males and 2 per cent. of the deaths of females take place. This table also shows that the excessive number of female deaths occur mainly between the fifth and fifteenth years of age; indeed, after the age of 45, slightly more males than females die of diphtheria. - In Table IV, the death-rates per million living at each age are given, and from the figures we see that not only 35th, and 45th Reports. The figures for 1855-60 are slightly less than those shown for the same years in later reports; probably cynanche maligna was not included with diphtheria in the earlier publication. * Tables III. to XV. are printed at the end of this paper. XVII THE DISTRIBUTIO/W OF DIAEA/TAACAA 337 absolutely, but relatively to the numbers of each sex living, the excess of deaths of females is mainly between the ages of five and fifteen. This excess, however, does not seem to me to be sufficiently marked for any irregu- larities in age or sex distribution seriously to affect the figures as to geographical distribution that I am about to lay before you. A few words as to the death-rates in the first five years of life generally. For the first period the materials are not given in the returns. In the remaining 20 years several considerable discrepancies between males and females are apparent, but I do not care to lay stress on these since the ages given in the census are notoriously uncertain for these early years. The mortality is, however, without doubt least in the first year, thus offering a marked contrast to summer diarrhoea; for the next four years it is, roughly speaking, constant, and during these years (second—fifth) no less than 47 per cent. of the deaths of males and 44; per cent. of the deaths of females take place. I should say that nearly all the figures quoted are obtained from the supplements to the 25th, 35th, and 45th Annual Reports of the Registrar-General, but in a few cases it has been necessary to refer to Annual Reports themselves or to the census, also to two Parliamentary Papers known as Mr. Lowe's Returns, 1864 and 1873. The populations given are the means of successive censuses, and are in most cases taken direct from the decennial supplements. As the diphtheria deaths are in the first period only for the six years 1855–60, whereas the popu- lations are the means of the two censuses for 1851 and 1861, it follows that the latter are too small, and the death- rates calculated from them consequently too large ; the error affects all districts more or less, but mainly those in Z 338 STUD/ES IN STA 7TWS 7TWCS - CHAP. –4 which the population is increasing very rapidly. The mean error in the population thus arising amounts to 22 in every 1000. Thus for England and Wales I have given the death-rate for the six years as 182; it should be only 178. In some few instances this might affect the argument slightly, but the error, such as it is, must remain, since the labour of recalculating the populations of the six hundred odd Registration Districts of England and Wales is more than I am inclined to face. Moreover, the assumption of the decennial supplement, that the population may be taken as the arithmetical mean of two successive censuses, itself overstates the population of rapidly-growing districts, since the growth is in a geometrical and not an arithmetical progression. To avoid overloading the paper with tables, I have thought it best to omit areas, populations, and deaths, giving only densities of population and death-rates. In examining the geographical distribution of the deaths from diphtheria, I shall begin with the eleven regis- tration divisions into which England and Wales are divided. The registration divisions are large areas, most of them comprising several counties. In the second period under review, the smallest of them, the Eastern Division, made up of the counties of Essex, Suffolk, and Norfolk, contained a population of 1,180,655 persons, of whom 3,493 died of diphtheria; while the largest of them, the North-Western, comprising the counties of Cheshire and Lancashire, contained a mean population of 3,159,406, of whom 5,442 died of diphtheria in the decennium. It is therefore obvious that the argument concerning the fallaciousness of small numbers does not apply here at any rate. In Table W. the registration divisions are arranged in XVII Z'HE ZO/S TRIBUTIO/V OA' ZD/PA/ZTAIAEA'ZA 339 the order of their diphtheria death-rates per 1,000,000 persons living for each of the three periods under review. In Table VI, the whole period of twenty-six years is taken, and the registration divisions are arranged, (1) in the order of their mean annual death-rates from diphtheria; (2) in order of their density of population ; and (3) in order of their mean annual death-rates from all causes. In columns (1) and (3) the death-rate of England and Wales is taken as 100, so that the excess of each division is read off at once in percentages of the mean. An examination of these tables shows that the South- Western, South-Midland, and Northern Divisions have always experienced a low diphtheria mortality. Again, the North-Western, and to a less marked degree the London Division, have suffered little on the whole, but in the third period each of them exhibited a slightly higher death-rate than England and Wales. It will be noted that the London and North-Western Divisions (this last comprising Cheshire and Lancashire) are by far the most densely populated, and they also have the highest general death- rates, the North-Western Division enjoying a most un- enviable notoriety in this respect. On the other hand, diphtheria is seen to have been above the average of England and Wales in each period in the West-Midland and South-Eastern Divisions; also in two out of the three periods it has been above the average in the Welsh and Eastern Divisions, and has in no case fallen much below the average in those Divisions. The North-Midland Division, although on the whole it has suffered most of all, has been affected very irregularly. Now all these five divisions have general death-rates below the average. In point of density of population they vary considerably. The Eastern and Welsh Divisions have populations mainly rural; that of the South-Eastern 34O STUDYES IN STATISTICS CHAP. Division is about half and half; that of the North-Midland Division is more rural than urban, but in the West Midland Division urban conditions predominate. So far as we have gone it would appear that rural life is not unfavourable to fatal diphtheria, while on the other hand the disease shows no special proclivity for densely-populated districts. A comparison of columns (2) and (3) of Table VI. shows that, as is well known, it is far otherwise when deaths from all causes are considered. This seemingly undue incidence of diphtheria on sparse populations I shall proceed to investigate in some detail. By breaking up the divisions into their component registration counties, we shall get much more specialized populations to deal with, but at the same time, as the numbers fall the results deduced may be less trustworthy. With a view to partially obviating fallacies due to small numbers, I have made the following adjustments:— Huntingdonshire (population' 58,591) has been added to Cambridgeshire. Rutlandshire (population 23,432) has been added to Leicestershire. Yorkshire has been divided into its three Ridings, as their characteristics are so different. Westmorland (population 63,038) has been added to Cumberland, together with the Ulverston district of Lancashire (including Barrow-in-Furness), the whole making a natural group which I have termed “the Lake District.” Wales I have divided into— 1. Glamorganshire (population 366,026). 2. The remainder of South Wales. 3. North Wales. - It will be noted that the object has been to group * These are the mean populations of the middle period (1861-70). xvi.I THE DISTRIBUTION OF DIPAITA/EA’/A 34ſ together districts having similar characteristics. As thus adjusted, the smallest county (Hereford) has a population of 107,726, while five other counties range up to Hertford with 186,032. At the other extreme, Lancashire has 2,657,312. In Table VII. the registration counties (modified as above) are arranged, for the three periods severally, in the order of their diphtheria death-rates; England and Wales being taken as having a death-rate of 100. In Table VIII, the same counties are arranged in parallel columns in the order of (1) Diphtheria death-rates for 26 years; (2) Mean density of population, 30 years; (3) General death-rates, 30 years. Where the diphtheria rate of a county has been above (or below) the average of England and Wales in each of the three periods it is printed in italics. It will be seen from these tables that of the 12 counties which have uniformly suffered less from diphtheria than the average of England and Wales, four are counties with dense populations, including indeed Metropolitan Middlesex and Lancashire. On the other hand, of the seven counties which have uniformly suffered more than the average from diphtheria, only two (both suburban) have somewhat dense populations, while one (South Wales less Glamorganshire) is the most thinly populated of all. a- Looking at the matter in another way, there are seven especially densely populated counties, three of which, Lancashire, West York, and Metropolitan Middlesex, suffer from the highest general death-rates; Metropolitan Surrey and Warwick also have high death-rates, Metropolitan Kent near the average, and extra-Metropolitan Middlesex, alone of the seven, a low death-rate. But as regards diphtheria, three of these, viz. Metropolitan Middlesex, West York, and Lancashire (the last particularly) have enjoyed eom- 342 STUD/ES IN STA TVSTICS CHAP. parative immunity from the disease in all three periods; two of them, Metropolitan Surrey and extra-Metropolitan Middlesex, have enjoyed like immunity in two periods out of three, while two only have twice suffered more than the average of England and Wales, namely, Metropolitan Rent and Warwick, the last very severely. Of 12 counties standing at the other end of the list as districts of especially sparse populations, we find:— Three counties above the average for diphtheria in each period, viz. Shropshire, Lincolnshire, and South Wales (less Glamorgan); five counties above the average twice out of three times, viz. Norfolk, North Wales, North York, Hereford (all of which suffered very severely in one or other period), and Northumberland. On the other hand, Wiltshire, Dorsetshire, and Cam- bridge (with Huntingdon) suffered more than the average in but one period; Cambridge very severely. The Lake District, one of the least dense “counties,” had a mortality somewhat below the average throughout. In the map (Plate XXII) the counties are tinted so that the depth of colour is proportional to the mortality from diphtheria. The contrasts between Lancashire and the West Riding, when compared with the sparsely populated adjoining counties; London and the home counties; Glamorganshire and the rest of South Wales; as also the remarkable prevalence of diphtheria in the Eastern Counties and Wales, are very strikingly indicated. At this point we may safely say that density of population is not a factor of prime importance in the production of fatal diphtheria; indeed, on the contrary, I hope to be able to show in the sequel that this disease has a strong predilection for Scattered rural populations, and even for districts reputed to be exceptionally healthy. Having got so far, it is obviously desirable to compare, –56 º | SOMERS 3" ---------- I Plate XXII. ENGLAND & WALES scale of English Mile - 1d. b. Q. - 20 ºn 40 ºn |] 54-79 | 82–88 92–109 tie -14. 149-19 - - ET Average DIPHTHERIA Death-Rates Twenty-six years 1855–80 56 (ENGLAND & WALES taken as too) | ! º London: Edward Stanford London, Stanfords Geogº ºsº XVII THE DISTRIAE O/TVON | OF DIPATHER/A 343 if it be possible, the relative mortality from diphtheria of town and country districts within the same county. The easiest way of doing this is to lay down definitions of what are to be considered densely populated, medium, and sparsely populated districts respectively, and then examine the several counties and the districts of which they are made up. - The criteria that have seemed to me best are the following, viz.:- 1. Dense Districts.-Those in which there is less than one acre to each person living. Practically these comprise all the very large towns, together with a few small ones. 2. Medium Districts.--Those in which there is one acre to each person living, but less than two acres. This class comprises a large number of unions containing medium- sized towns. 3. Sparse Districts.-Those in which there are upwards of two acres to each person. In these there are but few towns of any size, and even where considerable country towns are included, their population bears but a small proportion to that living outside under strictly rural conditions. As the populations are very different in the different periods, and the areas themselves are by no means fixed, it is only possible to compare districts for each decennial period separately. Where changes of area have been made during the decennial period, I have made such adjustments as seemed possible, and, although the results for the districts involved are necessarily inaccurate, I feel pretty sure that the discrepancies are not sufficiently numerous or important materially to affect the argument. It is fair to state that the following comparisons involved very considerable labour in the calculations of areas, populations, and rates. 344. - STUDIES WAV STA 7TWS7/CS CHAP. . * In Table IX. are given for the six years 1855-60, for each registration county, the population of its dense, medium, and sparse districts, together with their diphtheria death- rates per million persons living. It will be seen that, as might have been expected, there are several counties which do not contain registration districts falling under each of the three above defined descriptions—for instance, all the registration districts within the metropolis come under our definition of “dense districts,” whereas those in Herefordshire are all “sparse districts.” There are, however, 25 counties in which we can compare dense districts with medium districts, and in no less than 20 of these the diphtheria mortality was higher in the medium than in the dense districts. Again, there are 32 counties in which we can compare medium with sparsely populated districts, and it will be seen that in 28 of these the sparse districts suffered more severely from diphtheria than the others. Lastly, there are 29 counties in which it is possible to compare dense districts with sparse, with the result that in no less than 26 the sparse districts suffered most. There are, moreover, three counties having only dense districts, all with but moderate diphtheria mortality, and four with only sparse districts, which all suffered very severely. The figures for the whole of England and Wales for this period are: Dense districts 123, medium districts 182, sparse districts 249 diphtheria deaths per million persons living. - It is therefore plain that so far as the first period is concerned, diphtheria showed itself to be twice as fatal a malady in rural districts as in large towns, while districts with medium density of population occupied a middle position. XVII 7 HE ZO/STRIBUTIO/W OF DIPHTHERIA 345 In the second period (Table X.) the results are less striking : thus, we see that for all England and Wales the death-rates for dense, medium, and sparse districts are 163, 164, and 223 per million living respectively. Out of 28 counties in which it is possible to compare dense with medium districts, in 21 instances the medium districts have the higher diphtheria mortality. Out of 33 counties in which medium districts can be compared with sparse, there are 24 in which the mortality in the sparse districts is greater. Out of 31 counties in which dense districts can be compared with sparse, there are 25 cases in which the mortality in the sparse districts is greater. * Lastly, in the case of seven counties in which the foregoing comparisons are not possibie, and for which the method of comparison with the rate of the whole country is made use of, the influence of density and sparseness was not so uniform as in the first period; in two of the three dense (metropolitan) districts the mortality was above the average of the whole country, and in one of the counties with only sparse districts, the mortality was below that average, though the other three sparse counties suffered very severely. - In the third period (Table XI.) the results are similar to those in the second period, but still less marked. The death-rates for England and Wales are 114, 125, and 132, for the dense, medium, and sparse districts respectively. Out of 30 counties in which dense and medium districts can be compared, the medium districts have the higher death-rate in 15 cases only. - Out of 34 counties in which medium and sparse districts can be compared, the sparse districts have the higher death-rate in 21 cases. - 346 sTUDIES IN STATIsTics CHAP. Out of 32 counties in which dense districts can be compared with sparse, the sparse districts have the higher death-rate in 23 cases. Lastly, as regards the five cases in which no comparisons are possible, the dense and sparse districts suffer about equally. - - If we assume the mortality of the dense districts as 1000, and take the average of the three periods, we get a sufficiently striking result: Mortality from diphtheria in dense districts - 1000 5 y 35 medium , - - 1178 39 » sparse ,, - - 1507 It is, however, not easy to conjecture why in each succeeding decade the towns should have, relatively to the rural districts, suffered more and more. If we grant for a moment the exciting cause of the disease to have its origin in the country, it is just possible that the constantly increasing communication between town and country, by affording additional opportunities of importing the disease, might account for its increased prevalence in towns. Although the greater proximity of people in towns would at first sight seem to increase greatly the chances of infection, it is by no means certain that the individuals of a town community come so much into personal contact as the dwellers in a lonely hamlet. There may be but few opportunities for the introduction of the poison into an isolated village, but once introduced there are great facilities for its spread; in a village every one knows his neighbours, whereas in a large town dwellers in the same street are often complete strangers to each other. But facility of communication, or the reverse, cannot be the true explanation in this case, since other communicable diseases, such as measles, scarlatina, and whooping-cough are most fatal in towns. It would, of course, greatly XVII TAZE DIS ZERAEU/ZYOM OF DIAATHERWA 347 facilitate the investigation if there were statistics of cases of disease available, whereas it is only possible to discuss deaths. The Infectious Diseases (Wotification) Act of 1889 will, it is to be hoped, in course of time provide us with such case statistics. I have been anxious to avoid the charge of dealing with numbers too small to give trustworthy results; hence, instead of dealing with individual registration districts, I have grouped them together as far as possible, and then have drawn my inferences from the comparisons of numbers of these groups. It would obviously be most unsafe to attempt to argue from single instances in which some single special circumstance might altogether outweigh general considerations. But in order to be able to form a more definite idea of the sort of localities which are either specially liable to diphtheria, or enjoy an unusual immunity therefrom, I have compared the diphtheria death-rate of every registration district, in each of the three periods, with that of England and Wales, and divided the districts into the four following classes:– -- Class A.—Diphtheria mortality 50 per cent. and upwards above that of England and Wales. Class B.-Diphtheria mortality above that of England and Wales, but not 50 per cent, above it. Class C.—Diphtheria mortality below that of England and Wales, but not 50 per cent. below it. Class D.—Diphtheria mortality at least 50 per cent. below that of England and Wales. - For my purpose it is obviously of little importance to take note of occasional prevalences of, or occasional exemptions from, diphtheria. Therefore, I give, in Table XII., those registration districts which were in all three periods greater sufferers from diphtheria than the average of the whole country, indicating the severity of the disease 348 STUDIES IN STATISTICS CHAP. more precisely according as they fell under Class A. , in one, two, or all three periods, or not at all. Similarly, the districts whose mortality was always below the average are given in Table XIII., classed according to the number of times that they came under Class D. In the tables dense districts are printed in SMALL CAPITALs and medium districts in italics. - - It will be noted that there are 80 districts in which the diphtheria mortality has been uniformly above that of England and Wales. Classed according to density of population, only three of these are dense (one a metropolitan district and two in the suburbs of Birmingham), six are medium, but as many as 71 are sparse districts. In Table XIII. are shown the 140 districts in which the diphtheria mortality was uniformly below that of England and Wales. Classed according to density of population, no fewer than 51 of these were dense districts and 26 medium, whereas only 63 were sparse. - It can scarcely be denied that these two tables show in a remarkable way that very many of the largest towns of the country have suffered comparatively little from diphtheria. Indeed, that will be found to be the case with districts comprising the whole or parts of one-half the great towns of England; among them, towns with such evil sanitary reputations as Hull, Leeds, Bolton, New- castle-on-Tyne, Leicester, Manchester, Liverpool, and East London. On the other hand, in parts only of three of the large towns—London (Islington), Birmingham, and Brighton—has there been continuous excessive diphtheria mortality. - - I am not prepared to point out any special charac- teristics which the places that have suffered most from diphtheria have in common, further than that the great I Hull has greatly improved in recent years. xvil THE DISTRIAE UTION OF DAAA/7 HEAC/A 349 majority of them are poor-law unions whose populations live mainly in scattered villages or in country towns of small size. Of the 80 districts, 12 are in Sussex, 7 in extra-Metropolitan Kent, 7 in Lincolnshire, 7 in South Wales, 5 in extra-Metropolitan Surrey, and 4 each in Shropshire, West York, and East York, leaving only 30 districts for all the rest of the country. To check these results, and with a view to partially eliminating the effects of communication of the disease by infection, I have prepared Table XIV., in which are given the registration districts whose diphtheria mortality has always exceeded that of the county in which they are situated; also Table XV. in like manner, mutatis mutandis, for districts of low mortality. There were 82 which persistently suffered from diphtheria beyond the average of their counties, of which 10 were dense, 8 were medium, and 64 sparse. On the other hand there were 120 districts which persistently suffered less than the average of their counties; of these 48 were dense, 17 medium, and 55 sparse. These tables, then, tell the same tale as Tables XII. and XIII., only somewhat less emphatically. As might have been expected, very many districts appear in both lists. Thus, out of the 80 districts that suf- fered severely in comparison with the whole country, 47 also suffered severely when compared with their own counties. Again, of the 140 districts that, as compared with the whole country, enjoyed comparative immunity, as many as 86 enjoyed a like immunity when compared with their respective counties. - Taking both standards together, the districts' which suffered most from diphtheria during the 26 years were:— l Districts of medium population in italics, of dense population in SMALL CAPITALs. - - - - 4 35O STUDIES IN STA 7TIS 77CS CHAP. (1) Tenterden, Chelmsford, Ellesmere, Horncastle, Howden, Driffield, Aberayron. All of these are very sparsely populated unions. (2) The following suffered only slightly less: Peter- borough, Smallburgh, Gainsborough, Rothbury, and Haverfordwest. All of which again are sparsely populated. (3) Next after these came Bridge, Hailsham, Peters- field, Witham, Blything, Sturminster, Ledbury, Penkridge, ASTON, Solihull, East Retford, Selby, Patrington, Morpeth, Cardigan, Lampeter, and Crickhowell. Of these Aston is a dense district, but all the others are sparse, and, moreover, with the exception of Crickhowell, they all, during the 30 years 1851-80, enjoyed general death-rates below that of England and Wales. Per contra those districts which have enjoyed the greatest immunity, both when compared with their counties and with England and Wales, are— (1) SouthAMPTON, BolTON, and Machynlleth. (2) Only slightly less favoured—Hoo, Uzbridge, Bicester, Halstead, Chard, Yeovil, Nuneaton, Blaby, WIGAN, and HALIFAX. (3) Distinctly worse than the preceding, but still notably healthy as regards diphtheria, are—Farnham, Fordingbridge, Andover, St. Albans, Amersham, Newport Pagnell, Brixworth, Helston, LEIGH, Settle, KEIGHLEY, HoughTon-LE-SPRING, Chester-le-Street, Cockermouth, Llanelly, and Pembroke. As regards density of population, out of the above 29 districts, seven take rank as dense, and six as medium, while 11 had general death-rates above that of England and Wales, the three Lancashire towns, Wigan, Bolton, and Leigh, being the worst. It may be remarked incidentally that there is no regis- tration district, however small, which has cscaped from XVII 7 HE DISTRIBUTION OF DIPHTHER/A 351 fatal diphtheria for longer than one of the three periods. The smallest actual number of deaths registered in the 26 years was four in Hoo, a Kentish district with a mean population of 3,043 inhabitants, which give a death-rate of 51 per million living. The 12 districts in column 4, Table XIII., had mean diphtheria death-rates ranging from 42 to 69 per million, against 159 for England and Wales. To sum up, whatever units of area are taken in the examination of the geographical distribution of diphtheria in England and Wales, the same general results are arrived at. The distribution of diphtheria is apparently sui generis, the mortality from the disease clearly is not regulated by the same causes as influence the general mortality, certainly density of population does not favour it. This disease appears rather to have a preference for certain special districts, the great majority of which may be described as rural, and which have but a small proportion of their people living in towns; indeed, several of these districts—notably, Rothbury, Solihull, Hailsham, Peters- field, Ledbury, and Tenterden—have such very low general death-rates for the 30 years 1851-80 (varying from 15-6 to 17.6 per thousand), that they may fairly claim to be among the healthiest areas in England. On the other hand, whilst among those which have to a great degree escaped the ravages of diphtheria, there are some notably healthy areas, such as Farnham and Andover (with death- rates of 164 and 17:6), there are also a number of towns of medium or large size, some of which, such as Leigh, Bolton, and Wigan, have high general death-rates (ranging from 24-6 to 28°3). Some one will object, “You have yourself stated that the incidence of diphtheria mortality according to age and sex is peculiar, and yet in your argument you make no 352 STUD/ES ZAV STA TIS 7/CS' - CHAP: allowance for differences in the age and sex constitution in the populations of the districts.” This is quite true, but it should also be remembered that four-fifths of the whole of the deaths from diphtheria occur among children under 10 years of age, and an extremely small proportion among elderly persons. Now it is a well-known fact that in densely populated districts the proportion of children is larger and the proportion of elderly persons notably less than in rural districts. If, therefore, it were worth while to undertake the immense labour of correcting all my calculations for differences of “age and sex constitution,” the striking contrast that I have endeavoured to bring out between the liability of rural and urban populations to fatal diphtheria would be still more marked. - Again, the geographical distribution of the other zymotic diseases is totally different to that of diphtheria. That summer diarrhoea is especially a disease of towns is a familiar fact, to which attention has repeatedly been called by the Registrar-General. Measles is especially fatal in London." Scarlet fever is most common in the mining and manufacturing counties—Durham, Yorkshire, Northumber- land, Staffordshire, Warwickshire, Cheshire, Lancashire, Monmouthshire, and South Wales.” The practical deduction suggested by these facts is, that the cause, or causes, of diphtheria should not be sought for primarily in any high development of civilization, such as sewers, but rather in some condition associated with a more primitive mode of life. Again, privies and ash-pits can hardly be important agents in breeding or dissemin- ating the disease, or we should expect to find diphtheria exceptionally prevalent in those northern towns where such * Forty-seventh Annual Report of Registrar-General, p. xiv. * Ibid. p. xiii. See also Note at the end of this Paper. XV II THE DISTRIBUTION OF DIPATHER/A 353 nuisances reach their worst, whereas the contrary is the case. On the other hand, low vegetable organisms de- veloped in damp dwellings would perhaps fit in with the facts that I have brought forward; or again, some evil special to shallow wells or other primitive sources of water supply. The line of investigation, however, which seems to me most promising lies in comparative pathology. The peasantry live on terms of great intimacy with domestic animals, more particularly cows, sheep, pigs, and poultry (including pigeons). Some little known disease of some one or other of these creatures may be capable of inducing in men or women brought into frequent and close contact with them a trivial “membranous sore throat”; then, under suitable conditions of recipient and environment, the more generally recognized form of the disease “true diphtheria,” or, as it used to be called, “cynanche maligna," may result. The poison, perhaps gathering intensity and infectiveness, may then be conveyed into towns by farm produce such as milk, cream, or poultry, conceivably by eggs, meat, or vegetables; and lastly, through the persons first infected, the sources of water supply or the public sewers may get poisoned, and so indirectly aid in the spread of the disease. But these speculations are taking me beyond my facts, and I must be content to leave others to derive what indications they can from the data I have set forth. [See PostScript, p. 355.] Note.—In a previous examination into this subject some years ago, the results of which were never published, I compared the geographical distribution of diphtheria, scarlet fever, and diarrhoea for the ten years 1861-70. The registration districts were divided into “dense towns,” “open towns,” and “country,” in a somewhat different manner to that adopted in this paper, viz.:- - A A 354 STUDIES ZW STA 7TWST/CS CHAP. Districts with 10 persons and upwards to an acre were called Dense Town Districts. - Districts with one-tenth of an acre, but less than two acres to each person, were called Open Town Districts. Districts with two acres and upwards to each person were called Country Districts. * The death-rates from each disease were compared, not with the death-rate from that disease in England and Wales, but with the death-rate in the same registration division. Thus:– - - Number of Districts. Dense Open Town.|Town. Country. | Total. DIPHTHERIA. 25 per cent, below mean of division and lower | 15 | 84 || 116 || 215 Within 24 per cent. above or below mean 30 || 57 || 132 || 219 25 per cent. above mean of division and higher 5 28 155 188 50 169 403 || 622 SCARLATINA. 25 per cent. below mean of division and lower | 3 || 26 210 239 Within 24 per cent. above or below mean 36 93 159 288 25 per cent. above mean of division and higher 11 50 34 95 50 |169 403 || 622 DIARRHOEA. 25 per cent. below mean of division and lower | 4 || 35 | 262 Within 24 per cent. above or below mean 22 || 88 || 121 ; - 25 per cent. above mean of division and higher 24 46 20 90 50 |169 | 403 622 These figures, which were derived from the Supplement to the Registrar-General's 35th Annual Report, and from Mr. Lowe’s “Return of the average annual proportion of deaths from specified causes, &c., &c., during 1861-70,” show clearly that, in its relation to density of population, XVII THE DISTRIBUTION OF DIPHTHER/A 355 fatal scarlatina holds a place midway between those of fatal diphtheria and fatal diarrhoea. It is, of course, possible that diphtheria and scarlatina may be, as was once generally believed, two forms of one and the same disease, whereof the one form is more frequently developed under rural conditions, the other under urban; but it is doubtful whether any one would now venture to maintain this position." - POSTSCRIPT. Dr. J. T. R. Davidson has quite recently published some interesting and suggestive notes on diphtheria in Buenos Aires, where he found the disease very frequently associated with a like ailment in hens, the conditions being such as to bring children a good deal in contact with the birds. See British Medical Journal, Oct. 25th, 1890, p. 954. - * Dr. Edgar G. Barnes has published maps showing the distribution of diphtheria and Scarlatina in England and Wales in the six years 1880-86. They show that while the diphtheria mortality was above the average of the whole country in every one of those years in North Wales, Essex, Hertford, Middlesex, London, Kent, Surrey, Sussex, and Hants, and below the average every year in Northumberland, Durham, Cumber- land, Westmorland, Lancashire, Yorkshire, Derby, Stafford, Leicester, Worcester, Oxford, Gloucester, and Wiltshire; on the other hand, the Scarlatina mortality was above the average in every one of those years in Durham, West York, Leicester, and Monmouth, and below the average in every one of those years in Westmorland, Rutland, Huntingdon, Suffolk, Essex, Hertford, Buckingham, extra-Metropolitan Middlesex, Rent and Surrey, Sussex, Hants, Berks, Wilts, Dorset, and Devon. The contrast in the distribution of the two diseases is very marked. On the other hand, Dr. Barnes' results agree very fairly with mine. We both make Essex, Kent, Surrey, Sussex, and North Wales very liable to diphtheria, and we both show an exemption from that disease in Durham, Lancashire, Leicestershire, West York, Oxford, Gloucester, and Wilts. The principal discrepancies, or perhaps it may be developments, are as regards London, Hertford, and Hants on the one hand, and North York and East York on the other. See The Etiology of Diphtheria, by E. G. Barnes, M.D., British Medical Journal, July 28, 1888. -- 356 S7 UD/ES IAV STA TYST/CS CHAP. *sqĄeºGI ø[eJN JO SS90x0{ 9 — | ZZ— || 89– | OI— | gOȚ | 483 || Ziff I || 403 || 8țý“I | 800°8 | 09%— | — | — | — | — || Iggºg | sqqeep 9 ſeuI 10Ao 9Įguloj gosseox@I I.6į.99. 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CHAP. STUDIES IN STATISTICS. TABLEV-REGISTRATION DIVISIONS of ENGLAND and WALEs arranged in the Order of their DIPHTHERLA DEATH-RATEs per Million Persons living. . . . 1st Period, 2nd Period, 3rd Period, 1855-60. 1861-70. 1871-80. North-Western 102 |South-Western 119 | Yorkshire ... 95 South Midland 127 ||Northern ... 164 | North Midland 98 London 130 |South Midland 171 | South-Western 103 Northern 155|North-Western 172 | Northern ... 104 South-Western 165 l London 176 | South Midland 109 Welsh 167 | Yorkshire 180 | Eastern 113 England 3 Wales|182|England 3 Wales | 184|England 3 Wales | 121 West Midland 202 || West Midland 195 || London ~ e e 122 Yorkshire 220 l South-Eastern 200 || North-Western 125 Eastern - 230 || North Midland 202 || West Midland 141 South-Eastern 250 | Welsh 204 || South-Eastern 143 North Midland 348 ||Eastern 296 || Welsh 163 —4 TABLE VI.-REGISTRATION DIVISIONs of ENGLAND and WALEs arranged &n Order of (1) DIPHTHERIA DEATH-RATES, (2) DENSITY OF PopU- LATION, and (3) DEATH-RATES FROM ALL CAUSES. Averages of 26 years 1855-80. (1) Diphtheria Death-rates. (England = 100.) (2) Density” of Population. (Acres to 1 person living.) (3) Death-rates from all Causes. (England = 100.) South-Western North-Western South Midland Northern London England & Wales Yorkshire Welsh * @ º West Midland South-Eastern Eastern g North Midland 80 82 84 87 88 IOO 102 II () II.0 122 131 I 33 Welsh Northern ... South-Western Eastern tº º e North Midland South Midland South-Eastern England & Wales Yorkshire ... West Midland North-Western London 3-79 2-81 2.70 2.67 2.59 2-33 2-02 1.74 I -67 I-52 ():63 0.02 South-Eastern South-Western South Midland Eastern © tº tº North Midland Welsh © tº tº West Midland England & Wales Northern Yorkshire London North-western * The use of the word “density” as applied to a set of figures in which the greater the density the smaller the figure is somewhat awkward but has the sanction of usage. XVII 359 THE DISTRIBUTION OF DIPHTHERIA TABLE VII.-REGISTRATION Count[Es arranged in the Order of their DIPHTHERIA DEATH-RATES, in each of THREE PERIODs; the Rate for ENGLAND and WALEs being taken as 100. 1st Period, 1855-60. Lancashire North Wales Bedford tº gº e Northumberland... Buckingham Oxford Somerset ... & & ſº Metropol. Middlesex Hertford ... tº tº º Northampton Devon ... * * g. Metropolitan Kent Cambridge and Hunts Lake District Glamorgan * * * Metropolitan Surrey Hants tº º tº & e ſº Extra-Met, Middlesex Suffolk & ſº º Leicester and Rutland Gloucester Cheshire ... Warwick ... West York England amul Wales 48 49 50 60 63 66 67 69 69 7| 74 75 76 78 8] 82 83 86 86 89 90 90 92 94 5 1 52 63 63 65 67 68 70 70 72 74 76 77 79 80 81 84 84 84 85 87 89 89 90 95 95 96 97 IOO 49 56 61 67 69 73 73 74 75 75 79 80 82 83 84 86 92 93 94 95 95 95 98 99 IOO 2nd Period, 1861-70. 3rd Period, 1871-80. Cornwall ... Worcester Durham ... Monmouth Stafford Fssex tº gº e * gº º Extra-Met. Surrey Berks tº gº tº Wilts Dorset .. South Wales Nottingham & e ſº Extra-Metropol. Kent Shropshire Norfolk Derby ... Hereford ... East York Sussex ... North York Lincoln 102 | 1 || Il 1 II. I 113 | 17 12 I 123 123 13] I 38 139 147 149 165 165 183 186 208 232 310 Somerset ... Buckingham Hertford ... Cornwall ... Monmouth Wilts tº º º Glamorgan * * * Devon ... tº tº º Leicester and Rutland Durham ... tº £ tº Extra-Met. Middlesex Oxford ... tº tº tº Gloucester Berks g e Hereford . . Bedford Hants Dorset Derby Worcester... Lancashire Nottingham West York Metropolitan Surrey Metropol. Middlesex Stafford ... gº tº º Lake District Northampton England and Wales Extra-Met. Surrey Northumberland... Extra-Met. Kent... Metropolitan Kent Essex tº e º East York South Wales Shropshire Cheshire ... North York Suffolk Warwick ... Sussex ... North Wales Cambridge and Hunts Lincoln Norfolk 104 113 114 119 119 123 124 126 128 132 [38 151 152 155 173 173 219 Buckingham Northampton Nottingham Derby Wilts Gloucester West York Somerset ... tº gº tº Cambridge and Hunts Durham ... Norfolk ... Hertford ... {º º tº Leicester and Rutland Suffolk Dorset Devon East York Hants Stafford ... ge º º Metropol. Middlesex Berks e & º º Lancashire Lake District North York England and Wales Glamorgan Oxford tº g tº Northumberland... Lincoln tº e º Metropolitan Surrey Essex tº ſº º tº e º Metropolitan Kent Hereford ... .. Extra-Met. Kent... Monmouth tº e & Extra-Met. Middlesex Worcester... tº a $ Cornwall ... c Extra-Met. Surrey Bedford ... § tº Sussex ... tº e e Cheshire ... South Wales Shropshire Warwick ... North Wales 101 107 107 110 I 12 | 12 112 119 121 122 122 124 124 131 I 32 140 140 145 157 160 168 360 CHAP STUDIES IN STATISTICS TABLE VIII.-REGISTRATION Counties of ENGLAND and WALES arranged in order of (1) DIPHTHERIA DEATH-RATES, (2) DENSITY of PopULATION, and (3) DEATHS FROM ALL CAUSES. (1) Diphtheria Death-Rates (England = 100) (2) Density l of Population (Acres to 1 Person living) (3) Death-Rates from All Causes (England = 100)” 26 Years. 30 Years. * 30 Year’S. Extra-Metrop. Surrey | 81 * Sussex ... tº e - 84 Dorset ... 85 South Wales 5'82. Hertford tº a º 86 North York 5°35l Lincoln ... • * * 87 Lake District 4'67. Essex tº gº º º º º 87 ... [North Wales 4'61 IIHants - ºn to e e <> 88 |Hereford ... 4°14|Extra-Metrop. Kent | 89 Buckingham. ” 54l Lincoln ... s º º 4°12|Berks to e º e - © 89 Somerset 62|Northumberland ... 3:56 Extra-Met, Middlesex | 89 Hertford 70|Shropshire... - 3’54 || Wilts e - © 89 Devon. e 76. Dorset 3°33|Hereford 89 Northampton • e e 78||Wilts - © º e - - 3°24 Suffolk 90 Leicester and Rutland 78|Cambridge and Hunts |3.16|Shropshire 90 Gloucester ... 79 ||Norfolk e ... || 3:03 l Worcester ... 90 Lancashire 79. Devon 2.76 ||North York 90 Oxford 82|Oxford 2.75lSomerset ... - - - 90 Wilts 82 Suffolk 271 Cambridge and Hunts 91 Durham 83|Buckingham 2’69 |South Wales 91 Glamorgan 84||Northampton 2-63 |Buckingham 91 West York 86 Berks 2’61 Devon 91 Hants 86. Cornwall ... 2°50 Oxford 92 Cornwall ... 87|East York... 2:40 l Cornwall ... 94 Bedford ... º º e 88 Sussex 2:39||Northampton 94 Metropolitan Middlesea: 88|Hertford 2°32 || Bedford • * * 94 Extra-Met. Middlesex 92. Essex 2°31 ||North Wales & © ºn 94 Lake District 92. Somerset ... ... 2'26 Norfolk © º ſº. 94 Monmouth - e. e. 941 Leicester and Rutland || 2:23 loloucester... 94 Metropolitan Surrey 94|Hants e G . 2°16' Lake District 95 Nottingham 94 || Bedford ... 2-12 IMetropolitan Kent 97 Berks 95|Monmouth 2:09|Derby © e tº * - a 99 Dorset ... • * * 97 Stafford 1.93|Leicester and Rutland 99 Northumberland ... 97.|Derby ſº tº 1-80 ||Nottingham 100 Stafford - e. e. 99|Nottingham l'74|Cheshire 100 England and Wales 100|England and Wales | 1.74|England and Wales 100 Derby 101 |Extra-Metrop. Kent | 1.70 East York... 101 Worcester ... ... 103 |Glamorgan - 1°68|Monmouth 102 Metropolitan Kent 107|Gloucester... ... 1'53|Warwick ... ... 104 Suffolk ... ... 108|Extra-Metrop. Surrey | 1:52. Northumberland ... 104 Extra-Metrop. Surrey |116|Worcester... - - - 1°39|Glamorgan 105 JEssea, * - e. ... [116|Cheshire 1°33. Durham ... ... 107 Cambridge and Hunts |119|Durham ... 1:25. Metropolitan Surrey |107 Hereford ... • ‘º 119 West York 1-04 |Stafford ... ... 108 Cheshire ... ... 122 Warwick ... ... 1:03|Metropol. Middlesex 108 Extra-Metrop. Kent 125|Extra-Met. Middlesex 0-79|West York ... 110 East York... ... [131I Lancashire ... 0°44. Lancashire... 120 North Wales 131 ||Metropolitan Kent 0-11 South Wales 136|Metropolitan Surrey | 0-03 Warwick ... 138|Metropol. Middlesex || 0:02 Shropshire... 141 North York 149 Sussea, 163 Norfolk 164 Lincoln 191 * See footnote to Table VI. * These rates are the arithmetic means of rates for three decades given in the Swpplement to the Registrar-General's 45th Annual Report, Table I. 3 The name of a county is printed in italics when its diphtheria death-rate was above (or below) the average of England and Wales in each of the three periods. XVII 36 I THE DISTRIAUTION OF DIPH THER/A TABLE IX. —FIRST PERIOD, Siac Years DIPEITHERIA DEATH-RATES in Dense, Registration Counties. 1855-60. PopULATION, and Åſed ium, and Sparse Districts of Population living in ºº Medium Dense tº 3 tº Sparse *-*se Districts d”. jºs Dense!Medium |Sparse (less than less than (upwards of | Dis- | Dis- | Dis- 1 Acre to 3. Acres to | * Acres to tricts. I tricts. tricts. each Person).|e.on). each Person). Metropol. Middlesex | 1,888,207 - * 125 | — -* Metropolitan Surrey 531,091 - *s 148 — — Metropolitan Kent 163,813 - -*- 137 | – | — Extra-Met. Surrey 88,166 20,725 129,002 | 164| 161 269 Extra-Met. Kent 112,208 || 192,889 210,049 || 116 || 327 | 294 Sussex e e 95,554 15,178 242,488 181 | 198 468 Hants 142,013 80,812 206,509 83 87 222 Berks tº º e e e is 24,758 20,346 157,326 108 || 132 255 Extra-Met. Middlesex 98.222 70,743 *mme . 138 178 -* Hertford ... ... tº-me 64,429 || 111,278 || – || 78 152 Buckingham - 21,922 123,509 - 137 110 Oxford ... 20,105 16,478 || 134,157 8| 60 + 143 Northampton 37,507 t- 184,954 53 | — 143 Bedford ... ... - 27,899 || 107,243 | – || 25 | 107 Cambridge & Hunts 27,088 *- 219,389 110 || – 142 Essex e e g 68,485 25,786 267,646 105 || 226 260 Suffolk 48,929 22,106 || 264,738 65 | 120 | 1.75 Norfolk 118,541 - 312,049 112 | — 370 Wilts © e e 27,008 11,041 200,448 178 45 260 Dorset - 54,845 124,799 *- 188 262 Devon tº º 148,153 - 428,873 85 — 153 Cornwall ... e s e 55,401 112, 193 193,917 90 | 167 230 Somerset .. © e 69,091 149,567 244,167 77 | 120 135 Gloucester e e is 232,684 50,984 147,856 138 .177 195 Hereford ... *mºs - 102,958 - - - 333 Shropshire 24,444 51,316 179, 197 .75 | 202 || 350 Stafford 479,264 22,691 | 198,087 170 220 292 Worcester 131,470 57,127 88,245 188 || 140 263 Warwick ... e s e 316,201 75,546 128,498 178 108 || 170 Leicester & Rutland 64,416 67,962 131,281 78 215 177 Lincoln ... is a º -me - 402,190 - I - 563 Nottingham 95,719 99,474 113,888 183 190 367 Derby 47,366 134,023 95,895 || 272 | 407 | 165 Cheshire ... 92.283 || 282,654 || 70,718 73 | 163 283 Lancashire º 2,058,415 39,690 168,228 88 || 58 85 West York tº tº 991,164 133,154 312,726 143 || 175 262 East York tº º 102,115 57,146 103,731 170 308 || 518 North York -º-, — 202,257 * | *- 422 Durham ... ... 195,372 221,821 59,708 117 223 402 Northumberland 171,163 *- 152,133 53 | — 168 Lake District * 43,189 216,862 * 70 155 Monmouth -mas. 92,301 94,753 — 157 245 Glamorgan -* 205,730 77,445 — | 145 | 155 South Wales ... - - 370,414 * | *- 251 North Wales -*. 84,521 324,602 * 83 90 England & wales 8,766,416|2,626,288 |7,604213 | 123 | 182 249 Mean 182 362 CH AP. STUDIES IAV STA TYS 77CS TABLE X.—SECOND PERIOD, 1861-70. PopULATION and DIPHTHERIA DEATH-RATES in Dense, Medium, and Sparse Districts of Registration Counties. . Population living in Dipnºtes Medium smº-mº ºmº pººl. (I º, tº, Dense | Medium [Sparse (less than less than (upwards of Dis- Dis- Dis- 1 Agreto each | ..., 2 Acres to tricts. tricts. tricts. Person). each Person). each Person). Metropol. Middlesex 2,158,691 tº- *s 175 | – *ms Metropolitan Surrey 660,951 **º tº-º-º-º 186 — *mº Metropolitan Kent 209,482 gmms --- 219 || – *- Extra-Met, Surrey 133,842 74,824 116,632 | 130 | 175 265 Extra-Met. Kent 202,821 231,059 153,318 || 137 202 || 317 Sussex tº º º 114,989 63,107 || 215,772 223 290 305 Hants 201,467 68,468 215,438 133 229 | 155 Berks g gº º * e & 53,623 tº-mºmº 162,329 117 * 156 Extra-Met, Middlesex 133,309 92,781 *e 131 143 || – Hertford ... gº º º &=== 71,732 114,300 — 113 | 118 Buckingham *=sº 23,641 127,466 — 72 | 100 Oxford ... 20,526 19,436 134,819 | 166 139 || 135 Northampton 45,952 11,674 182,031 207 111 || 177 Bedford ... ... *= 32,490 113,519 || – 92 | 165 Cambridge & Hunts 28,220 * -º 217,189 || 142 | – || 342 Essex * , ſº tº tº º º 104,311 28,977 277,005 || 151 214 || 245 Suffolk ... 54,483 27,707 259,130 171 217 | 275 Norfolk 127,307 &ºmºmº 301,739 187 | – || 495 Wilts 26,950 10,561 | 202,836 | 85 284 120 Dorset * 60,290 125,307 || – 168 || 148 Devon 164,322 63,632 369,735 | 95 101 || 148 Cornwall ... 55,338 113,327 192,937 | 103 || 101 | 126 Somerset ... e 68,964 157,717 246,329 93 110 || 82 Gloucester * > * > 265,505 37,902 162,740 || 130 | 153 155 Hereford ... tº-º-º: * 107,726 || – — | 1.47 Shropshire tº e 26,517 54,912 | 182,277 | 166 122 275 Stafford ... tº e ſº 598,421 46,846 178,220 171 226 173 Worcester 159,824 || 60,233 95,558 | 160 | 164 || 150 Warwick ... * > * > 386,367 77,810 131,725 | 328 | 161 | 197 Leicester & Rutland 81,706 70,530 130,605 || 98 122 || 151 Lincoln ... tº º º * --> * 416,108 || – — | 318 Nottingham 112,791 112,672 114,131 | 120 | 1.47 224 Derby 56,692 154,180 98,515 | 120 | 154 || 178 Cheshire ... 166,477 267,336 68,280 | 196 || 239 318 Lancashire 2,418,072 95,123 144,116 || 159 .177 | 162 West York 1,261,342 121,058 309,689 152 | 122 || 231 East York 122,651 62,408 105,443 | 126 176 374 North York - wº- 222,963 || – — 243 Durham ... tº gº e 289,044 313,795 38,426 | 122 || 140 | 156 Northumberland 207,355 * 157,481 || 132 || – 309 Lake District *- 45,723 230,079 || – 192 | 1.75 Monmouth 49,664 88,422 70,256 || 62 128 || 149 Glamorgan 157,932 108,647 99,447 || 144 112 || 113 South Wales Rºmº †-º-º: 373,302 || – — 236 North Wales *= 93,021 335,478 || – || 275 288 England & Wales 10,926,808|2,962,041 7,500,396 | 163 | 164 223 \—— --~~~ ——” Mean 184 XVII 363 THE DISTRIBUTIow of DIPHTHERIA TABLE XI.--THIRD PERIOD, 1871-80. POPULATION and DIPHTHERIA DEATH-RATES in Dense, Medium, and Sparse Districts of Registration Counties. Population living in Dense Districts (less than 1 Acre to each Person). Medium Districts (1 Acre, but less than 2 Acres to each Person). Sparse Districts (upwards of 2 Acres to each Person). Metropol. Middlesex Metropolitan Surrey Metropolitan Kent Extra-Met. Surrey Extra-Met. Kent... Sussex e c º Hants Berks e e º • * * * Extra-Met. Middlesex Hertford ... - a º Buckingham Oxford Northampton Bedford ... tº e G Cambridge & Hunts Essex tº gº º e - © Suffolk Norfolk Wilts Dorset ... Devon tº Gº Gº Cornwall ... Somerset ... Gloucester Hereford ... Shropshire Stafford Worcester... Warwick ... tº º º Leicester & Rutland Lincoln - e. e Nottingham Derby Cheshire Lancashire West York East York North York Durham ... * * * Northumberland... Lake District tº Q e Monmouth Glamorgan South Wales © - ºr North Wales tº e ºr England and Wales 2,418,565 861,340 255,472 197,895 314,190 145,823 230,180 67,775 274,303 - 21,459 57,493 177,410 62,100 138,441 27,295 171,102 49,815 130,746 305,765 28,861 673,728 228,263 459,650 108,798 240,586 70,482 198,878 2,863,753 1,599,649 157,274 43,090 497,020 245,117 18,332 53,801 274,809 - 32,720 | - 168,930 238,357 85,999 101,230 15,909 48,531 80,689 26,324 24,820 44,944 36,884 | 34,020 35,421 41,470 48,303 71,599 110,458 112,037 63,456 54,673 63,253 30,458 | 81,797 118,954 . 40,396 217,250 381,860 189,146 187,520 70,801 273,724 103,126 100,512 72,707 39,674 96,978 - 46,342 116,280 225,730 219,867 153,845 117,804 129,114 133,285 160,197 116,015 214,489 285,144 252,857 295,733 177,337 138,683 364,550 182,092 243,844 137,742 119,257 182,908 205,116 100,922 139,054 96 350 445,568 116,041 67,975 41,628 238,916 106,403 240,515 38,937 165,249 251,726 72,707 114,576 322 405 . 351,960 7,129,163 Diphtheria Death-rates per Million. Dense Dis- tricts. Medium Sparse Dis- tricts. Dis- tricts. 13,701,980 3,512,210 11.5 ! — - - 135 * -* 144 - - 175 | 139 155. 143 || 149 162 121 | 186 198 104 || 148 104 I03 || 138 118 166 58 - - 92 101 - 91 52 228 193 101 42 60 80 - 103 178 52 — 97 101 109 159 118 116 95 85 * 102 59 51 94 - 118 97 139 70 94 143 100 154 77 80 102 75 | 1.31 97 - -*. 147 I04 || 132 221 95 || 179 158 T38 141 178 217 84 | 181 106 73 125 - - 133 53 45 128 71 82 90 168 169 - 109 200 154 84 || 110 105 96 73 157 67 ** 130 92 90 90 90 -mº 191 245 || 138 102 154 138 155 155 69 77 - 81 187 — 287 180 114 | 125 | 132 Y Mean 121 364 CHAP. STUDIES IN STATISTICS TABLE XII.-REGISTRATION DISTRICTS in which the DIPHTHERIA DEATH-RATE was above that of ENGLAND and WALEs in each of the three Decennial Periods. I. II. III. IV. Always 50 per cent. | Twice 50 per cent. Once 50 per cent. Never 50 per cent. above. above. above. above. Tenterden. Chertsey. Reigate. ISLINGTON. Bridge. Guildford. Godstone. Dorking. Hailsham. Bromley. Hollingbourn. Camelford. Ticehurst. Tunbridge. Eastbourne. Foleshill. East Grinstead. | Cranbrook. Chichester. tº - e. IHorsham. Faversham. Wokingham. (4 districts) Petworth. Battle. Lexden, Chelmsford. Uckfield. Docking. Smallburgh. Cuckfield. Sturminster. Ledbury. Steyning. Dridgnorth. Ross. Midhurst. Oswestry. Ellesmere. Petersfield. Cheadle. Wem. Peterborough. Burton-on-Trent. ASTON. Witham. Bourn. Solihull. Blything. Worksop. Horncastle. Depwade. Great Ouseburn. Gainsborough. Penkridge. Hemsworth. Howden. KINGs NORTON. Tadcaster. Driffield. Holbeach. Bridlington. Cardigan. Grantham. Guisborough. Aberayron. Caistor. Montgomery. (21 districts.) Glanford Brigg. East Retford. Selby. Patrington. Thirsk. Bedale. Morpeth. Rothbury. Haverfordwest. Newcastle-in-Emlyn. Lampeter. Crickhowell. Knighton. (34 districts.) (21 districts.) N.B. —Medium districts in italics; dense districts in SMALL CAPITALs. XVI I 365 THE DISTRIBUTION OF DIAEATHER/A TABLE XIII.-REGISTRATION DISTRICTs in which the DIPHTHERIA DEATH- RATE was below that of ENGLAND and WALEs in each of the three Decennial Periods. I. II. III. IV. Never 50 per cent. Once 50 per cent. Twice 50 per cent. Always 50 per cent. below. elow. below. St. GEORGE, HAN- || WESTMINSTER. Farnham. SOUTHAMPTON. over SQUARE, WHITECHAPEL. Hoo. Uzbridge. ST. GILES. MILE END. Fordingbridge. Newport Pagnell. BETHNAL GREEN. | THANET. Andover. Chard. St. GEORGE - IN - || Fareham. Ware. Yeovil. THE-EAST. Basingstoke. Royston. Wells. PopLAR. Faringdon. Hitchin. BATH. Ringwood. Eton. St. Albans. Blaby. Wallingford. Wycombe. Hemel Hempstead. | WIGAN. READING. Aylesbury. Berkhampstead. | BOLTON. BRENTFORD. Henley. Amersham. HALIFAX. WEST HAM. Brackley. Buckingham. Machynlleth. YARMOUTH, Hardingstone. Bicester. & a tº Honiton. Kettering. Brixworth. (12 districts.) ExETER. Woburn. Wellingborough. Newton Abbot. CAMBRIDGE. Oundle. Totnes. Woodbridge. Lwton. Tawntom. Calne. Halstead. CLIFTON. Westbury. Sudbury. Strowd. Dorchester. BURY ST. CHELTENHAM. Sherborne. EDMUNDS. Tewkesbury. Bridport. Devizes. Stone. Crediton. Bradford-on- WEST BROMWICH. | Penzance, Avon. DUDLEY. Scilly Islands. SALISBURY. STOURBRIDGE. Bridgwater. STOKE DAMEREL. Stamford. Bedminster. Helston. Macclesfield. Westbury-on- Langport. HULL. Severn. Frome, Glendale. Cirencester. Reynsham. Pontypool. SHREWSBURY. Chipping Sod- © 4 º' WORCESTER. bury. (29 districts.) Warwick. Thornbury. LEICESTER. lNuneaton. RADFORD. FIinckley. LIVERPOOL. LEIGH. BURY(Lancashire). ASHTON-UNDER- BARTON-UPON- LYNE. IRWELL. BLACKBURN. MANCHESTER. Settle. OLDHAM. Skipton. ROCHDALE. REIGHLEY. BURNLEY. Todmorden. Lancaster. SADDLEWORTH. Ripon. BIOUGHTON-LE- BRADFORD. SPRING. LEEDS. Chester-le-Street. Durham. GATESHEAD. NEWCASTLE-ON- || Cockermouth. TYNE. Llanelly. TYNEMOUTH. Pembroke. Pontypridd. © Neath. (46 districts.) Carmarthen. Rhayader. Bangor. (53 districts.) N.B.-Medium districts i.e. italics; dense districts in SMALL CAPITALs. 366 CHAP. STUDIES IN STATISTICS TABLE XIV.-REGISTRATION DISTRICTS in which the DIPHTHERIA DEATH- RATE was in each of the THREE PERIODs above that of the County in which they are situated. Always * cent. Twice sº cent. Once s: º, cent. Never *ier * above. above. above. above. Tenterden. Petersfield. HAMPSTEAD. KENSINGTON. Peterborough. Woodstock. ISLINGTON. ST. PANCRAs. Chelmsford. Witham. Bridge. GREENWICH. Sturminster. Blything. Faversham. Cranbrook. Axbridge. Smallburgh. Hailsham. East Grinstead. Ellesmere. Mere. Romsey. Marlborough. Horncastle. Tavistock. Wokingham. Stafford. PRESCOT. Launceston. Hendon. Caistor. Howden. Northleach. Aylsham. Southwell. Driffield. Stow-on-the-Wold | Blandford. Bridlington. Tothbury. Penkridge. Poole. Thirsk. Haverfordwest. | Market Camelford. Guisborough. Aberayron. Harborough. Williton. Gainsborough. Clutton. (12 districts.) (13 districts.) | East Retford. Ledbury. Worksop. Cheadle. Newark. Burton-on-Trent. Rumcorn. KINGS NORTON. WEST DERBY. Great Ouseburn. Hemsworth. Wortley. Doncaster. Selby. Tadcaster. Patrington. Morpeth. Lampeter. Crickhowell. Presteigne. Ruthin. (30 districts.) ASTON. Solihull. Ormskirk. Pontefract. ECCLESALL BIERLOW. Cardiff. Cardigan. Enighton. St. Asaph. (27 districts.) N.B.-Medium districts in italics; dense districts in SMALL CAPITALS- XVII 367 THE ZO/STRA; UTYON OF DIAA/7 HEA’/A TABLE XV.-REGISTRATION DISTRICTs in which the DIPHTHERIA DEATH- RATE in each of the THREE PERIODs was BELow that of the County &n which they are situated. I. II, III. IV. Never 50 per cent. Once 50 per cent. Twice 50 per cent. Always 50 per. cent. below. below. below. below. WESTMINSTER. WHITECHAPEL. | Fanºnham. Hoo. ST. GILES. RICHMOND. MEDWAY. SouTHAMPTON. BETHNAL GREEN. GRAVESEND. Fordingbridge. Bicester. MILE END. THANET. Andover. Halstead. PopLAR. BRIGHTON. Uacbridge. Nwaveaton. KINGSTON. Fareham. St. Albans. BOLTON. Rye. Basingstoke. Amersham. Machynlleth. Eastbourne. Faringdon. Chipping Norton. ^ a tº Ringwood. READING, Brixworth. (7 districts.) Hungerford. BRENTFORD. CAMBRIDGE. Kettering. Berkhampstead. |YARMOUTH. WEST HAM. Newport Pagnell. Thetford. Epping. Brackley. Helston. Tendring. Wellingborough. Chard. Sudbury. Lwton. Yeovil. Henstead. Dunmow. SHREWSBURY. Calne. BURY ST, ED- Atherstone. EXETER. MUNDS. Warwick, STOKE DAMEREL. Stow (Suffolk). | Blaby. Reynsham. Woodbridge. STOCKPORT. CLIFTON. NORWICH. WIGAN. DUDLEY. KINGS LYNN. LEIGH. STOURBRIDGE, Swaffham. Settle. Boston. SALISBURY. KEIGHLEY. Lincoln. Shaftesbury. HALIFAx. DERBY. Sherborne. HOUGHToN-LE- BURY (Lancashire). Penzance. SPRING. BARTON-UPON-IR- | Frome. Chester-le-Street. WELL. Thornbury. Cockermouth, Lancaster. Madeley. Llanelly. York. Wellington Pembroke. Durham. (Salop). Bangor. TYNEMOUTH, Newport (Salop). WORCESTER. (31 districts.) (32 districts.) Stratford-on- Avon. Hinckley. Stamford. Mansfield. NoTTINGHAM. ASHTON-UNDER- LYNE. BURNLEY. Skipton. SADDLEWORTH. LEEDs. HULL. GATESHEAD. NEWCASTLE-ox- TYNE. Neath. Rhayader. Newtown. Dolgelly. Carnarvon. (50 districts.) N.B.-Medium districts in italics : dense districts in SMALL CAPITALs. 363 STUD/ES WW STA TIS 7/CS CHAP. CHAPTER XVIII. PHTHISIS, BRONCHITIS, AND PNEUMONIA: ARE THEY EPIDEMIC DISEASEs $* SOME explanation is perhaps needed for this evening calling your attention to diseases which are not usually admitted to be epidemic in character. My reasons for doing so are briefly twofold. First, to fully understand epidemic diseases, it is well to contrast their behaviour with that of diseases of the non-epidemic class; and in these days, when great epidemics are few and far between, we may well turn our attention to the principal causes of death that are always active in our midst. Such are phthisis, bronchitis, and pneumonia, to which are attributed almost exactly one-fourth of all the deaths in this country. Secondly, Koch's discovery of the tubercle bacillus has set all men a-thinking, while the proceedings of that most excellent institution, the Committee for the Collective Investigation of Disease, remind us that the idea that pneumonia may be an epidemic disease is gaining ground. The question naturally arises, Is bronchitis wholly above suspicion ? As in previous papers, I shall to-night deal with the statistics of mortality in England and Wales, as furnished 1 Read at a Meeting of the Epidemiological Society of London, April 4th, 1883. XVIII PATHISIS, BAOAVCHIZYS, AND PAVEUMON/A 369 by the Registrar-General's Department, and with those statistics alone. The numbers of deaths are taken from the Table of Causes of Death in each year's annual report, the “Supplementary Table” being used in every case to correct the classification as far as possible; and the death- rates have all been “ground out" again by Thomas's machine, the corrected population values having been interpolated between the successive census numbers.” The results obtained by these processes may, it is believed, be relied upon, though in such a mass of figures small errors may have been overlooked. A comparison of the curves that result from plotting out the death-rates from the majority of alleged causes, both with one another and with curves representing various meteorological elements, has led me to classify diseases into four groups. These groups may shortly be called hot diseases, cold diseases, dry diseases, and indifferent diseases. The indifferent diseases show no marked relation to meteorological fluctuations. This is a residual class of doubtful extent. As Messrs. Buchan and Mitchell have shown, most diseases exhibit a seasonal or week-to-week fluctuation which bears some more or less direct relation to weather; but in the case of some, which, like small-pox, measles, and whooping-cough, show very marked and constant fluctuations of this kind, no similar fluctuation is observed from year to year. For instance, measles is most fatal in summer and in winter, but we do not find it especially fatal in hot summers or in cold winters. By “hot diseases.” I mean those which are most fatal in summer, and as a rule especially fatal in very hot summers. Examples of this class are diarrhoea, want of breast milk, atrophy and debility, tabes mesenterica, thrush, enteritis, dysentery. 1 In many of the Registrar-General's Tables this has not been done, but the death-rates calculated on old estimates have been reprinted. B B 370 STUDIES IN STA 77S77CS CHAP. By “cold diseases.” I mean those which are most fatal in winter, and more especially in severe winters; this class includes most affections of the respiratory organs, apoplexy, paralysis, mortification, heart disease. By “dry diseases.” I mean those that are greatly checked by rainfall, especially frequent rainfall—such are scarlatina, puerperal fever, erysipelas, acute rheumatism, laryngitis; this class and “hot diseases” overlap to some extent. It must not for one moment be supposed that it is alleged that heat, cold, or drought is the cause of either of the above-named diseases—what is meant is merely that fluctuations in the various meteorological elements corre- spond more or less closely with fluctuations in the various death-rates. They are to be regarded rather as favouring or predisposing conditions. Thus, for instance, on the average the mortality from Scarlet fever will be greater in a dry than in a wet season. More will die of bronchitis in a cold winter than in a mild one ; more of diarrhoea in a hot summer than in a chilly one. Of what use, it will be asked, are researches which lead to conclusions that are familiar to all ? Partwriunt montes, nascetur ridiculus mus. The answer is twofold:—1. This classification groups together diseases that were supposed to have no aetiological connection, and conversely separates diseases that were supposed to be allied. 2. The connection between the meteorological elements and the death-rate is much less close than might have been expected. This is markedly the case with bronchitis and diarrhoea. There are, then, indications of other, more obscure, causes at work; the history of the progress of the natural sciences abounds in instances of important discoveries that have originated in the study of such “residual phenomena,” as they are termed by logicians. ENGLAND AND WALES DEATH - RATES FROM PHT HISIS, BRONCH ITIS, PNEUMONIA AND CERTAIN OTHER DISEASES CALEN DAR YEAR S. 1850 '51 52 '53 '54 '55 '56 57 58 '59 60 '6| 62 63 '64 65 66 '67 68 (39 70 '7| 72 73 '74 75 '76 '77 78 '79 '80 '81 '82 Mean Death Rates per million living. 4|0 - 518 e 284. = 344. - 2347 - 1097 - 2007 - 2385 - 1322 dow, stan * - r The curves express the fluctuation per cent, above or below the Mean. Each division of the Vertical Scale corresponding to ten per cent. The figures at the side give the actual values of the Means of the Death Rates per million persons estimated to be ſwing. The curves includealſ ages & both sexes. The lowest black curve shows the number of days in each year on which the Mean Daily ſalue of the emperature of the Air at Greenwich was 40°F /ower. XVIII PATHISIS, BRONCHITIS, AND PNEUMONIA 371 I claim, then, for my method of research that it brings into play all the four inductive methods; but that it does this imperfectly, and that only inductions of but slight probability can be drawn from it, no one is so well aware as myself. In all the charts laid before you, please to note that the ups and downs indicate percentage fluctuations from the mean. Hence all the curves may be said to be strictly comparable, or drawn to one scale. The actual mean number of deaths is indicated by figures on the right- hand side. One of my first objects in this investigation was to compare together all those alleged causes of death, such as measles and whooping-cough, in which the respiratory organs are more or less involved, or in which the fatal issue is commonly due to pulmonary complications. Another was to compare the various causes which are, or have been supposed to be, connected with tubercle. For the first of these purposes the following causes of death have been carefully studied :—Laryngitis, oedema glottidis, croup, measles, whooping-cough, influenza, bron- chitis, asthma, emphysema, pneumonia, pulmonary conges- tion, pulmonary apoplexy, pleurisy, empyema, phthisis, haemoptysis. For the second :—Phthisis, haemoptysis, tubercular peri- tonitis, tabes mesenterica, tubercular meningitis (called hydrocephalus in the returns), scrofula, psoas abscess, joint and bone disease, rickets. As might have been expected, most of this labour was thrown away, and from the majority of the above curves little was to be learned—chiefly owing to the smallness of the numbers dealt with, but partly to difficulties of classification. - I will now call your attention to Plate XXIII., and to 372 STUDIES IN STATWS TICS CHAP. the upper portion of it. The facts apply to England and Wales, and the curves show the annual fluctuations of the death-rates from phthisis, bronchitis, and pneumonia, and some more or less allied diseases throughout a period of twenty-five years.” At the top of the diagram are two curves, coloured gray and black, which represent respectively the death-rates of two typical epidemic diseases, measles and whooping-cough, which have one character in common, viz. that when they kill the patient, the fatal issue is commonly the result of pulmonary complications. Two points will be noted with respect to the curves of measles and whooping-cough. 1. The fluctuations are greater than those of the other curves on the diagram. 2. The curves either bear no resemblance to one another nor to any of the others, or at least the points of difference are as striking as the coincidences. From these facts we are justified in drawing two inferences:—(A) That whatever influence inclement seasons may have on the mortality from whooping-cough and measles, that influence is quite out-balanced by other considerations, viz. the prevalence or otherwise of the infective poison, its varying potency, and the number of susceptible individuals. (B) Since the curves of phthisis, bronchitis, and pneumonia do not exhibit such wide fluctuations, there is a presumption pro tanto that these latter are not epidemic diseases, at all events in the sense that measles and whooping-cough are. Now look at the green line representing the mortality from phthisis. Two points catch the eye at once. 1. It has a tendency almost uniformly downward. 2. It does not deviate much from a straight line. 1 The Plate was originally prepared for the twenty-five years 1855-79, but in revising it I have carried forward the curves to 1882, giving a period of twenty-eight years. XVIII PHTH/SIS, BAOAVCALITZS, AAWD AAVEUMOAVIA 373 As to its tendency downward, it must be borne in mind that the death-rate from respiratory diseases and phthisis taken together has risen over 5 per cent, during the last twenty years, while that from phthisis alone has fallen 20 per cent. It might very naturally have been supposed that this apparent decline in the mortality from phthisis was to be attributed mainly to points of diagnosis and nomen- clature, but that this is to a very small extent the case has been proved in Chapter XIV. (p. 234). The figures there quoted show that the average mortality from phthisis in the five years 1876-80 was at the ages 5–35 very con- siderably lower than during the ten years 1861-70, whereas at all those ages the mortality from “diseases of the lungs” remained comparatively stationary. The approximation of the curve to a straight line is remarkable. No other cause of death gives a straighter curve; but those of cancer, apoplexy, paralysis, convulsions, and fractures are about equally straight. Messrs. Buchan and Mitchell have shown that in London the maximum death-rate from phthisis occurs in the eleventh week of the year, the rate being then 13 per cent. above the mean, whereas the minimum death-rate occurs in the thirty- seventh, thirty-eighth, and thirty-ninth weeks, the rate being then 12 per cent, below the mean, or a total range of 25 per cent., a smaller range than in any other disease, except cancer and premature birth. (See Plate XXV.) This straightness of both the week-to-week and the year-to-year curves of phthisis is, I think, a very remark- able fact. Any one would naturally have supposed that severe weather would influence the phthisis death-rate to a much greater extent than is actually the case ; but it would appear that the inexorable diseases, phthisis and cancer, keep their victims alive, so to say, till they have finished with them, jealously resenting any interference. 374 S70DIES IN STATISTICS CHAP. º Of course the very chronic character of these diseases to a great extent explains this. Those who believe in the communicability of phthisis would probably explain by this same chronic character the fact that it exhibits none of the characteristics of an epidemic disease. The curves of tubercular meningitis and tabes mesen- terica are inserted in Plate XXIII. to show that in several respects they resemble those of phthisis. Such a resemblance was not observed between these curves and that of scrofula. The two red curves are drawn to a common mean, and exhibit the phenomenon of two almost identical curves, differing mainly in the fact that one has an upward, the other a downward tendency. The explanation is easy, for it is well known that many deaths are now returned as due to chronic bronchitis, which in former times were attributed to asthma. This is probably a mere question of nomenclature. But although fewer deaths are now attributed to asthma than formerly, the transfer of these to bronchitis will not account for the great rise in that curve, since the joint mortality of the two diseases has risen 62 per cent. in 20 years. Average Death-rates in England and Wales per million. - 5 Years, 5 Years, Rise or Fall 1855-59. , 1875-79. per cent. Bronchitis ... ... 1359 º e e 2465 e e - + 81 Asthma ... ... 238 e s e 116 e e - — 51 Asthma and Bronchitis 1597 tº tº º 2581 + 62 Increase ... e 9 º' © e º e tº º 984 Neither will the decrease in phthisis and pneumonia altogether account for the increase in bronchitis, although it will to a great degree, as the following table shows:– XVIII PATHISIS, BRONCHITIS, AND PAVEUMONIA 375 - Average Death-rates in England and Wales per million. 5 Years, 5 Years, Rise or Fall 1855-59. 1875-79. per cent. Phthisis ... ... 2648 * * * 2117 tº º º – 20 Bronchitis... ... 1359 e e ſº 2465 tº e tº + 81 Pneumonia... ... 1294 tº ſº e 1035 tº º tº – 20 Other lung diseases... 502 s º º 483 6 s e — 4 Total ... ... 5803 6100 + 5 Increase... & © tº tº e º e º º 297 It must then be admitted that more persons die now from diseases of the respiratory organs than did twenty years ago. Probably the diminution in the mortality of infants from exanthemata will account for this. Delicate persons (indeed, all persons must die of something) and weaklings who escape a pestilence, may be expected to fall victims to so-called inflammatory diseases. Reverting to the diagram, the dark-blue curve, pneumonia, shows a downward tendency, though not so marked as in the case of phthisis. In amplitude its fluctua- tions are midway between those of phthisis and bronchitis; but they correspondin direction very closely with the latter. The pleurisy curve is in some points allied to the pneumonia curve ; but it resembles far more closely that of “rheuma- tism of the heart,” which in turn, as I showed in a former paper,' has a very remarkable resemblance to the erysipelas curve. Messrs. Buchan and Mitchell called attention to the fact that the week-to-week fluctuations of pleurisy resemble more closely the corresponding fluctuations of rheumatism, than they do those of other respiratory diseases. May we not conjecture from these two facts that the majority of deaths assigned to pleurisy have their origin in * See Chapter XVI. p. 317. 376 STUDIES IN STATIS 77CS CHAP rheumatic fever, rather than in inflammation induced by cold The numbers are, however, too small to draw any very positive conclusions. Turn now to the lower portion of the diagram. It seems more natural, in studying a winter disease, to adopt a method of dividing the year which shall avoid the incon- venience of cutting every winter in half. The plan that commended itself to me as most convenient for this purpose was to make the year commence with the present fourth quarter, or October 1st, a period that very nearly corresponds with the first rise of the curves of winter diseases from the summer minimum. This method is applicable to the statistics of London only. The death-rates from phthisis, bronchitis, and pneumonia are given in the same colours as above, and resulting curves will be found to be very similar to those for England and Wales. The black curve indicates the number of cold days at Greenwich in each year—calling a cold day one on which the mean daily value of the temper- ature of the air was 40 deg. Fahr., or lower. This curve resembles those for bronchitis and pneumonia in many respects, but not so closely as might have been expected. Several measures of the coldness of the winters have been tried, but the one adopted corresponds more closely than any other with the mortality due to the two great inflam- matory diseases of the breathing organs. The next diagram (Plate XXIV.) shows the weekly fluctuations of the deaths from bronchitis and pneumonia in London during the past five winters—three of excep- tional severity and two very mild. The death-rates have not been calculated, but the curves all express fluctuations from the mean weekly number of deaths for the five years; each small division of the vertical scale in this diagram corresponds to twenty per cent of excess or defect from the mean, so as to economize space. The shaded Squares LONDON WEEKLY DEATHS FROM BRONCHITIS & PNEUMONIA. Excess of Defect per cent, compared with the mean of the 5 years 1878-82. ALSO COLD AT GREENWICH BRONCHITIS ſoci...INov.TDECTJANTFEs.TMARCHTAPRTMAYTJune TJuly/Augſ sep, PMF"9"A weekly average 219 III ITTTTTTT H weekly average 86 - + |-|--|- |-|--|--|--|- 1878 – H- - 1879 4o"F- 50°F H *H". Hišiš weekly average ióź. I879 – H-H —1880 40" rº- 50°F- 1880 - - 1881 40°F 50 F. 1881 - - 1882 40°F 50" F 1882 - 1883 ––––. +- —l 50°F, OCT, INOV. DEC, JAN. FEB. MARCH | APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG, SE P. Each small division of the vertical scale Corresponds to 20 per cent of excess or defect from the Mean. The grey shaded squares indicate mean weekly temperature at Greenwich below 50 F. The black squares in like manner indicate mean temperature below 40°F. Each division of vertical scale corresponding to 5°F. Thus the mean temperature of the first week of November 1878 was 41, that of the third week of December was 29°F. LONDON AVERAGE WEEKLY DEATHS FROM BRONCHITIS, PNEUMONIA, PHTHISIS & CERTAIN OTHER DISEASES. Excess or Defect percent.compared with the mean AVERAGE OF 30 YEARS 1845-74. MEAN AVERAGE JAN, FEB, MARCH | APR. MAY JUNE of weekly Deaths. ULY AUC, SEP, OCT, NOV, DEC, - - ------- - - MEASLES – 29-4. WHOO PING ſºlº E.S. ſº- MESENTIERICA 13-3 TUBERCULAR – 2 - 9 MENINGITIS PHTHISIS -14-8 - || BRONCHITIS ||3-0 A&THºlº 12 - 3 PNEUMON1A - 72 - 3 PLEURISY = 3 - 2 RHEUMATISM - G - 3 -- - +++ - - - T- JAN. FEB, MARCH APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG, S E P. OCT, NOV, DEC. Lowoon, srawford's Geogº Esraa" Each small division of the vertical scale corresponds to /O per cent. of excess of defect from the Mean. xviii. PH THISIS, BROWCHITIS, AND PNEUMONIA 377 indicate the mean weekly “cold" (if one may be allowed the expression); the pale shading corresponding to tem- peratures between 40 deg. and 50 deg. Fahr., or what is usually called “raw” weather; the black to temperatures between 20 deg. and 40 deg., or “frosty” weather. It will be noticed (1) that the pneumonia curves (black) correspond generally with the bronchitis curves (red), but deviations from the mean are much smaller in the case of the former. (2) While the pneumonia curves rise in the autumn as rapidly as those of bronchitis, they subside more slowly in the spring (3) Long-continued cold raises the mortality, from both causes, more than lower temperatures lasting a shorter time. (4) In the spring of 1879 there was prolonged high mortality from both bronchitis and pneumonia out of all proportion to the severity of the cold. (5) In the winter 1878-9 the correspondence between the two curves is much less than in the others. It should be explained that the extra- ordinary mortality in February 1880 and 1882 followed intense frost that was accompanied by dense smoky fogs. But I have not been able to prove that fog per se has the effect that might be expected. Lastly, the two dotted lines are the phthisis curves during the two severe winters 1878–9 and 1879-80. It will be seen at once that the severe cold had an insignificant effect upon the mortality. The curves are, however, much more like the pneumonia curves than those of bronchitis. The next diagram (Plate XXV.) is occupied with curves traced from Messrs. Buchan and Mitchell's figures, and applies to averages of the thirty years 1845-74. Measles and whooping-cough are seen to have very characteristic curves, quite dissimilar to each other, and I may add all others. Tubercular meningitis is again seen to be allied to phthisis, but tabes mesenterica is a 378 STUDIES IN STATISTICS CHAP. summer disease mainly. Asthma and bronchitis are closely allied. Pneumonia looks like a compound curve having a secondary spring maximum.* Pleurisy and rheumatism are very similar, but, owing to the smallness of the numbers, both are very jagged. Pneumonia is one of those diseases in which the question of sex has to be considered when discussing its aetiology. In equal number living, for every 1000 females that died in 1880 :— From all causes ... tº ºs tº © e > 1,131 males died. From phthisis º e º e º 'º tº o tº 1,077 , , From bronchitis ... * G e e tº wº 1,103 , , From pneumonia, no less than ... 1,460 , , This great difference points to occupation and habits. Intemperance is no doubt a factor, but the difference between bronchitis and pneumonia is very striking. The returns of the Registrar-General's Department necessarily deal only with fatal cases. Bearing this in mind, the following table, based as it is on more than twenty-four thousand cases, has a value which admitted inaccuracies in the returns cannot destroy. The figures are obtained from the Annual Reports for the several years, and from the census of 1881, vol. iii., and show the following facts for males and females separately — -- (1) The number of deaths from pneumonia at all ages and at various groups of ages for each year from 1871 to 1880, both inclusive. (2) Do. do. do. for the decade 1871- 1880. * Several other curves exhibit a deep notch in the month of February, the mortality rising again afterwards. This to my mind corresponds with the common experience that the raw weather and parching east winds of March are more trying to the constitutions of many people than the lower average temperature of February. ENGLAND AND WALES. AVERAGE DEATH RATES FROM P N E U M ON IA DECADE | 871 - || 88 O. Ages 0 |O 2O 3O 4O 5O 6O 7O 8O 90 Years Deaths per Deaths per Million living Million living |0.000 |O.OOO 9.OOO 9. OOO 8,OOO 8.0 OO 7. OOO 7. OOO 6.OOO 6.OOO 5,000 5. OOO 4, OOO 4-, OOO Males 3.0 OO 3. OOO 2.OOO 2.000 I. OOO |. OOO O Zondon Stanfords. Geogº Estab? ; XVIII PAI THISIS, BRONCHITIS, AAWD PNEUMONIA 379 ·ſ38I‘p.woooy woņoffņsønwp ºago2/100 øųą uĮ pº 189đōſō ‘IAXX 0481ā put ºſqt. 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I 8 IŻ | 188 | 991 | 9I0°Z | gl Zºff || 91,1°ZI© & œ� � &*** T48 I ºsº (8)II —gº | —gſ, ļ —g9 || —gg | —gſ; ) —gº | —gº | —Og | —gI || —OI || —gg—+ | -8 || — g | — IIºseºy J9punJ9pUIQ[[W *1840L '897 OA pºco pºzo16vºſ ſzą o?wownºwał wzorºſ sºņpøOT 38o * STUDIES IN STA TISTICS CHAP, (3) The average annual death-rate per million living at each age (calculated on the mean of the two censuses, 1871 and 1881). It should be noted that males suffer more than females, almost in the proportion of 3:2. But the disparity is slight at ages 2–15, and is most marked at ages 35–65, when males suffer more than females in the proportion of 2:1. The greater mortality of male infants can only be dependent upon that difference in the male constitution which causes the well-known excessive mortality of males under 2 years of age. The greater mortality in middle life may conceivably be due to sexual differences, or more likely to occupation or drinking habits. In both males and females, deaths from pneumonia are proportionately least frequent at ages 10–15, increasing on either side of that point to the extremes of life— but the mortality is three times as great, according to the return, in the first year of life, as in old age. The facts are more clearly shown in the diagram (Plate XXVI.), in which the continuous curve represents the male death-rate, the dotted curve the female death- rate. For years 3–15 they are practically coincident. In noting the varying mortality from year to year it should be borne in mind that the winters 1870-1, 1874-5, 1878-9, 1879-80, 1880-1 were severe. The Influence of Geographical Distribution. If the mortality in each registration county, from bronchitis and pneumonia respectively, be compared with the like mortality throughout the country, it will be found that there are ten registration counties in which pneu- monia is comparatively much more fatal" than bronchitis — 1 More than 15 per cent. XVIII 381 PAI THISIS, BROWCHITIS, AAWD PWEUMONIA Mean Death-rates in Counties per million living, 1876-80, and percentages of the Rates in England and Wales. i PNEUMONIA. BRONCHITIS. Count Rate ## Count Rat * § y. & 3 ounty. 8.156. ## Q Q Lancashire ... 3460 || 145 || Lancashire .., 1395 || 139 Metrop. Surrey 3241 || 136 || Monmouth... 1330 132 Metrop. Middlesex 2997 | 126 || South Wales 1254 125 West York e - e. 2913 | 122 || West York ... 1237 | 123 Warwick 2891 | 121 || Stafford ... e - tº 1222 || 122 Monmouth ... 2713 114 || Metrop. Middlesex 1197 || 119 Nottingham 2662 111 || Metrop. Surrey 1131 || 113 Stafford 2550 | 107 || Rutland 1078 107 Cheshire 2506 || 105 || Metrop. Kent 1069 || 106 Cumberland 2463 | 103 || Leicester 1048 || 104 Metrop. Kent 2423 || 101 || Derby tº e e to tº o 987 98 Derby tº 2375 99 || North Wales e e º 959 || 96 Leicester . 2.196 || 92 || Devon 4 tº e e tº e 958 95 North York 2182 | 91 || Warwick 954 || 95 Wilts 2177 91 || Huntingdon 935 | 93 Durham 2177 91 || Worcester ... 934 || 93 Somerset 2123 | 89 || Durham tº º 927 | 92 Devon e is tº 2057 | 86 || Northampton 925 | 92 North Wales 2053 | 86 || Gloucester ... 921 92 Worcester ... 2038 85 || Nottingham 919 || 92 East York ... 1994 | 84 || East York ... 915 91 Northampton 1953 || 82 || Bedford 902 || 90 Lincoln 1936 | 81 || Cheshire 897 | 89 Dorset º, º ºs e - - 1925 | 81 || Cornwall ... © & © 872 | 87 Middlesex, Extra-Met. 1918 80 || Surrey, Extra-Met. 854 || 85 IEssex e e ºs tº º º 1918 80 || Middlesex, Extra-Met. 840 | 84 South Wales º 1906 || 80 || Kent, Extra-Met. ... 829 || 83 Hereford ... • e - 1901 || 80 || Berks tº gº & 814 || 81 Northumberland ... 1891 79 || Hertford 806 || 80 Huntingdon 1869 || 78 || Shropshire ... 803 || 80 Oxford e e 1862 || 78 || Cumberland 803 || 80 Shropshire ... 1858 || 78 || Essex 796 || 79 Buckingham 1840 || 77 || Dorset º e 781 78 Hants 1790 75|| Cambridge ... 778 77 Berks 1771 74 || Suffolk - e. e. © g 6 773 || 77 Rutland 1768 || 74 || Northumberland ... 768 || 76 Hertford 1764 || 74 || Lincoln º e º 745 || 74 Bedford 1707 || 71 || Norfolk 735 | 73 Westmorland e - e. 1700 || 71 || Somerset ... 728 73 Kent, Extra-Met. ... 1668 || 70 || Hereford 728 || 73 Suffolk .. * * * 1664 || 70 || Sussex 680 | 68 Cornwall 1627 | 68 || Wilts 669 67 Sussex 1620 | 68 || Hants tº tº 668 || 67 Norfolk ... tº º e 1578 | 66 || Buckingham 650 || 65 Surrey, Extra-Met. 1542 || 65|| Oxford e - © 622 || 62 Cambridge ... - 1462 61 || North York 597 59 Gloucester ... 1263 || 53 || Westmorland 541 || 54 England and Wales ... 2388 || 100 ||England and Wales 1004 || 100 382 STUD/ES / W S 7.4 TVST/CS CHAP. Gloucester, South Wales, Rutland, Extra-Metropolitan Surrey, Cornwall, Bedford, Cambridge, Huntingdon, Extra- Metropolitan Kent, and Monmouth. There are ten registration counties in which bronchitis is comparatively much more fatal" than pneumonia — North York, Wilts, Westmorland, Cumberland, Warwick, Oxford, Somerset, Nottingham, Metropolitan Surrey, Cheshire. I am by no means anxious to force conclusions from the meagre facts thus laid before you; but, nevertheless, I venture to propound the following propositions for discussion —1. The mortality statistics of England and Wales throw no light upon the question of the communi- cability of phthisis,” but the evidence, so far as it goes, is negative. 2. Cold weather has but very little influence on the phthisis death-rate. 3. The bronchitis death-rate is greatly affected by temperature, that of pneumonia also, but not quite so markedly. 4. It is difficult to explain, by meteorological phenomena only, all the fluctuations of the mortality from bronchitis and pneumonia. 5. The diagrams do not give any support to the theory of pneumonia being a disease allied to typhoid fever. 6. Although the facts do not exclude the possibility of a communicable pneumonia having no connection with cold, they show that such a theory can account for but a very small proportion of the deaths attributed to pneumonia.” 7. While the mortality from pneumonia, and more especially from bronchitis, appears to be mainly regulated by intense cold, by fogs, and the cold winds of early spring, the occasional want of correspondence between the assumed causes and the alleged effects suggests that 1 More than 15 per cent. * The question of the communicability of phthisis is treated in considerable detail, from another point of view, in the next chapter. * See Appendix, p. 443. XVIII PHTHISIS, BROWCHITIS, AAWD PAVEUMONIA 383 possibly bronchitis and pneumonia, or many of the cases so designated, may be communicable, or they may be complications of a communicable disease, more or less fatal according to the prevailing meteorological conditions. 8. Many domestic incidents suggest that common catarrh, or some form of it, is more or less communicable. Is this communicable catarrh, assuming it to exist, a mild form of influenza 3 and are many cases of bronchitis and pneumonia to be regarded as serious complications or sequelae of that neglected but most troublesome ailment 7 9. The fact that whereas, in equal numbers living, 1,103 males die from bronchitis to every 1000 females, but as many as 1,460 males die from pneumonia to every 1000 females, suggests that the two diseases have different causes. 10. The curves suggest a common factor in the two diseases phthisis and tubercular meningitis. This inquiry has been less productive of positive results than I at first expected, but if it contribute, either to clear away false notions, or to indicate lines of future research, it may be labour not wholly lost. 384 STUDIES IN STATIS 7/CS CHAP.” CHAPTER XIX. A CALCULATION OF THE PROBABILITY OF THE ACCIDENTAL AND FATAL INCIDENCE OF PHTHISIS UPON BOTH HUSBAND AND WIFE." A FEW years ago the attention of medical men was called to the frequency with which such an observation as the following is made –A. B., a healthy man, to all appearance free from any phthisical taint, marries a con- sumptive wife, C. D.; after a year or two C. D. dies; A. B. is found to be phthisical at the time of his wife's death, and dies of the disease after a short interval. Several collections of such cases, many of them very striking, were published, and the inference was drawn that they only admitted of explanation on the hypothesis of infection of the man by his wife, or vice versd. On the other hand, it may be maintained that phthisis is a very common ailment, and especially fatal between the ages of twenty and fifty, and that consequently, as a mere matter of chance, such cases must occur more or less frequently. As the matter is one the importance of which cannot be exaggerated, it seemed worth while to attempt to ascertain from the materials at hand how frequently such 1 The substance of this paper was written at the request of the Secretary to the Collective Investigation Committee of the British Medical Association, and appeared in the Collective Investigation Record, July 1883. XIX COMMUNICA BILITY OF PH THIS/S 385 coincidences might be expected to occur as a pure matter of chance, on the hypothesis that phthisis is not a communicable disease. The following calculations have been verified by three competent mathematicians, one of them an actuary of experience. If the results are anywhere near the truth, they prove that a far greater number of coincidences of the deaths of both husband and wife within a short interval from phthisis, than has as yet been brought forward, would be required to prove that the one had contracted the disease from the other by infection. The available data suggested the following form for the problem— Required—To find in how many cases in England and Wales during the decade 1871-80 both husband and wife would die of phthisis, assuming the chances for married and single to be equal in all respects. Let the mean number of married males living in the period 1871-80 be M. Then from the census we get— M = 4,130,131. These numbers are also given in the census reports for seven ages, viz.:- At age 15– tº e e tº º ſº 5,906 = p, , 20– ... ... 232,332 = u2 ,, 25— ... ... 1,140,048 = pla , 35— ... . ... 1,093,663=p, ,, 45— ... ... 830,395 = ps , 55— ... ... 528,442 = |is , 65— ... ... 299,345 = p, So that M = All + M2 + . . . . -- |17. Similarly, let the mean number of married females living in the same period = F. C C 386 STUDIES IN STATIST/cs CHAP. Then— F = 4,193,245 and— R—M = 63,114 showing a considerable excess of wives over husbands, which is probably to be explained by (a) husbands absent on or beyond the seas, (b) deserted wives, the men return- ing themselves as single, (c) single women, for various reasons returning themselves as married. To find the age distribution of the M wives correspond- ing to the M husbands, the census numbers giving the age-distribution of all the married women in the country must be adjusted by multiplying by the factor — = k = '984949. That is to say, it is assumed that the errors arising from the various causes given above affect the census numbers at all ages equally. Thus:— At age 15— ... 33,495 × k = 32,991 = p, 33 20— ... 381,668 × k = 375,924 = 4, 2? 25— ... 1,263,439 × k = 1,244,422 = 4s 2? 35— ... 1,093,376 x k = 1,076,919 = 0, 22 45— ... 776,040 × k = 764,360 = q. 35 55— ... 441,931 × k = 435,279 = 0, 33 65— ... 203,296 × k = 200,236 = 4, So that M = & F = }, + . . . . -- pr: Now we get from the Registrar-General's Supplement- ary Report for the ten years 1871-80, the mean numbers living and the deaths from phthisis in the period. (See Table on next page.) These figures include the single, married, and widowed: by our hypothesis the single and married are (as regards phthisis) equal in all respects. If there are m males living during a certain period, and XIX. COMMUNICA BILITY OF AATH/S/S 387 MALES. FEMALES. Mean No. Dying of Mean No. Dying of living. Phthisis. living. Phthisis. Say Say Say Say 15— 1,176,491 ml | 19,723 di || 1,187,331 | f | 28,459 3, 20– | 1,032,135 m, 31,927 | dº || 1,134,358 | f | 35,617 | 3, 25— 1,705,568 ma 63,070 ds || 1,861,449 | f | 65,973 || 3, 35— 1,324,405 m, 54,549 da | 1,431,548 | f | 48,663 3, 45— 997,999 || m, 38,532 | d. || 1,087,587 | f | 26,786 8. 55— 681,568 m, 21,774 de 755,902 | f | 13,436 || 3. 65— 512,991 m, 8,015 d, 618,702 | f, 5,511 3, during the same period d males die of phthisis, the pro- bability of any one of the m males dying of it = m But we are dealing with M males, of 7 ages, viz. 15–20 = Pºi, 20–25 = pe, &c., the probabilities of dying of phthisis at these ages being # 1. d, 777.2 —, &c. . . . Of these M married males the number who will probably die d 1 d d X = u : — * 2 *: ** * **, + . . . . + tº d 1 * But H = 01676426 Multiplying by u1 I d # = .03093297 33 | 2 d's _ •03697888 7?? 3 - 95 At 3 d : •041 18755 770, 4 - 99 M. 4 d's = -03860926 7?? 5 --> 5 3 At 5 d 6 — = -03194692 9 3 At 6 77%. 6 dº ’ — = -01562406 93 At 7 7?? 7 = 7,186.72 = = 16,882:09 = 4,676.98 Total = X = 148,109 i.e. Married males who will die of Phthisis during the decade. 99.01 42,157-70 45,045.30 32,060.94 of phthisis within the assigned period is— 388 STUDIES IN STATISTICS CHAP. Corresponding to these X husbands who die of phthisis are X wives. The age-distribution of the X husbands does not differ materially from that of the total married males. We may therefore safely assume the same age- distribution for their wives as for all wives. The number of wives alive at the respective ages may then be assumed to be proportional to bi, º, . . . . ºr, and to form a series X1, X2 . . . . X7 X X Thus * = * = + w; KF M X. X • X 1 := TVT § 1 &c., &c. x 7 := TT ** X And x1 + x2 + . . . 4 x = i (), 4 p. 4. . . . + 9 ) X - TM x M = X X 148,109 But + = ± = = ut M 4,130,131 0.358606 X A p 1 = x1 = 1,183 A p 2 = x2 = 13,481 A p a = x3 = 44,626 A # 4 = X 4 = 38,619 A p 5 = x 5 = 27,410 A ps = X6 = 15,609 A p 7 = X7 == 7,181 Total = 148,109 = X We are now dealing with X females of 7 ages, the proba- . 31. 32 bilities of dying of phthisis at those ages being F. F., &c. The number of these X females (wives of X husbands who die of phthisis) who will probably die of phthisis within the assigned period will be in like manner— 31 32 37 Y - º- + sºmº + • e º 'º mºs x 7. x. 7. + x 7, XIX COMMUNICABILITY OF PHTHIS/S 389 = -031398.38 = 03544174 = -03399327 = 02462883 = -017774.79 = -00890.736 93 } 9 23 33 -02396888 Multiplying by x, Total = Y = 4,363 The closest approximation to the number required that the data admit of. The above calculations admit of being stated in the form of tables which, as Mr. Waters has suggested, may appear less repulsive to non-mathematical readers. ENGLAND AND WALES.–Males. Age. Meſ* 15— 1,176,491 20— 1,032,135 25— 1,705,568 35— 1,324,405 45— 997,999 55— 681,568 65– 512,991 Dying of Phthisis in decade. 19,723 31,927 63,070 54,549 38,532 21,774 8,015 = 28-36 x2 = 423:28 Xs = 1581-62 X, − 131279 Xs = 675:08 x s = 277:45 xi = 63-96 Thus:— Number per million dying of Phthisis in decade. 16,764 30,933 36,979 41,188 38,609 31,947 15,624 Then assuming the same phthisis death-rates for married males we get :— 390 CHAP. STUD/ES ZAV STATZS 7/CS' ENGLAND AND WALES.—Married Males. Ten Years 1871-80. Mean number Dying of phthisis Age. living. in decade (at rates in table above). 15— 5,906 99 20— 232,332 7,187 25— 1,140,048 42,158 35— 1,093,663 45,045 45— 830,395 32,061 55 — 528,442 16,882 65— 299,345 4,677 Total 4,130,131 148,109 ENGLAND AND WALEs.—Females. Ten Years 1871-80. | - Number per Dying of * * * * e * | * | *śń tº II]. OlęC3,010, 15— 1,187,331 28,459 23,969 20– 1,134,358 35,617 31,398 25— 1,861,449 65,973 35,442 35— 1,431,548 48,663 33,993 45— 1,087,587 26,786 24,629 55–– 755,902 13,436 17,775 65— 618,702 5,511 8,907 Then since the age-distribution of the 148,109 husbands who die of phthisis is not very different from that of the total 4,130,131 husbands, we may fairly assume that the age-distribution of their 148,109 wives is not very different from that of the total 4,193,245 wives. (See Table next page.) So that, in accordance with the data and the various necessary assumptions, we may state that, during the ten years 1871-80, in England and Wales, assuming mar- 'riage to have no influence upon phthisis, by selection, £nfection, or otherwise, it would happen 4,363 times that both husband and wife would die of that disease. XIX 39 I COMMUNICA BIZZTY OF PHTH/SIS ENGLAND AND WALES.–Married Females. Ten Years 1871-80. Wives in Age-distribution | Age-distribution column II. of 4,193,245 of 148,109 wives | dying of Age wives (mean of whose husbands | Phthisis in & Censuses 1871 | die of Phthisis indecade at rates and 1881). decade. in previous table. I. II. II]. 15— 33,495 1,183 28 20— 381,668 13,481 423 25— 1,263,439 44,626 1582 35— 1,093,376 38,619 1313 45— 776,040 27,410 675 55– 441,931 15,609 278 65— 203,296 7,181 64 Total 4,193,245 148,109 4363 Next as regards the interval between the deaths of husband and wife — It may be assumed that the deaths from phthisis were spread evenly over the ten years; and to simplify the calculations, we will assume for a moment that the double event we are concerned with occurred 1000 times in the decade, i. e. that 100 husbands and 100 wives died of phthisis in each year. Now 100 husbands died in the first year; of the wives of these husbands 10 (ea, hypothesi) died in each of the 10 years. Those wives who died in the first year, and half of those who died in the second year (10 + 5 = 15), died within one year of their husbands. The other half of those who died in the second year, and half of those who died in the third year (5 + 5 = 10), died within an interval of between one year and two years of their husbands; and so on. Finally, half of those who died in the tenth year died between nine years and ten years of their husbands. * Again, 100 husbands died in the second year. All 392 STUDIES IN STATISTICS CHAP. the wives who died in the same year, and half of those who died in the first year, as well as half of those who died in the third year (10+5+5 = 20), died within one year of their husbands. The other halves of those who died in the first and third years, and half of those who died in the fourth year (5+5+5 = 15), died within an interval of between one year and two years of their husbands; and so on. And finally, half of those who died in the tenth year died between eight years and nine years of their husbands. By similar reasoning as to the 100 husbands who died in each of the remaining years, the following table is constructed," in which it will be noted that the figures in the last line but one form a series 10420 —(2n—1)}. Wives who die in each Interval from Husbands' Deaths. Year of bands . Within decade. who die 1 year. INTERVAL. Hus- 1 year || 2 years 3 years || 4 years 5 years || 6 years || 7 years | 8 years 9 years and and and and and and and and and in year under 2|under 3 under 4|under 5 under 6 under 7 under 8 under 9 under 10 | 100 || 15 || 10 || 10 | 10 | 10 || || 0 || 10 || 10 || 10 5 2|| 100 || 20 | 15 10 || 10 || 10 | 10 10 10 5 — 3| 100 20 20 15 10 || 10 || 10 | 10 5 | – | — 4|| 100 20 | 20 | 20 | 15 || 10 10 5 | – | – || – 5|| 100 20 20 20 | 20 | 15 5 | – | – | – || – 6|| 100 20 | 20 20 | 20 | 15 5 | – | — | – || – 7| 100I 20 | 20 20 | 15 10 || 10 5 | – | – | – 8|| 100 || 20 20 | 15 || 10 | 10 || 10 || 10 5 | – | — 9|| 100 || 20 | 15 || 10 || 10 || 10 || 10 || 10 | 10 5 — 10|| 100 || 15 || 10 || 10 || 10 || 10 || 10 || 10 || 10 || 10 5 1—10| 1000 || 190 | 1.70 | 150 | 130 110 || 90 || 70 50 30 | 10 1–10|4363| 829 || 742 654 567 || 480 || 393 || 305 218 131 || 44 1 The above method of stating the argument as to the interval between the deaths (as well as the following table) is due to Mr. Waters. *-* | *- : - 1 = XIX COMMUNICA BALITY OF PH THISIS 393 The last line of the table gives the actual number of wives dying in each interval, obtained by substituting for 1000, the number found in the previous process, viz. 4,363. Exactly the same results would of course be obtained by calculating from the wives to the husbands. If there be N. medical practitioners in England and Wales, and n of these send in returns, then (assuming no in- fection, and assuming that those who send in returns have an average share of practice) they should have observed º 70, during the ten years a number of cases equal to ºr of the N above numbers, though presumably they would only Tecord a part of the cases observed. According to the Medical Directory for 1883, N = 15,462." But within the decade both husband and wife would die of phthisis, within a twelvemonth of each other, in 829 instances. If, therefore, 500 medical practitioners sent in returns as to their experience, they should have observed collectively about 27 such cases. This is the “probable" number that would have been observed, but quite apart from infection the number actually observed might be greater, since the number of practitioners and number of years are not very large, and the coincidence is a somewhat uncommon one. Again, marriage may have Some effect on phthisical mortality otherwise than through infection (e.g. sexual selection might be imagined to have a notable effect). It is plain, therefore, that to show any substantial argument for the existence of infection it would require a much larger collection of cases than has yet been published. 1 This number does not include army and navy medical officers, but on the other hand it does include many retired medical men. 394 STUDIES IN STA 7TWSTICS CHAP. CHAPTER XX. THE SEASONAL PREVALENCE OF CONTINUED FEVERS IN LONDON." BUT fifty years ago the various species of continued fevers were commonly confounded together under the name of typhus, and, as a natural result, different writers gave most conflicting accounts of the symptoms and course of the disease, and likewise of the morbid appearances found after death. The honour of disentangling this confusion is mainly due to Gerhard and Pennock (1837), Stewart (1840), and Jenner (1849). In 1854, Murchison entered the arena, and made various contributions to the voluminous literature of the subject; his classical Treatise on the Continued Fevers of Great Britain was published in 1862, and a second edition appeared in 1873. In this work, and in his lectures, Murchison laid great stress upon the aetiological distinctions between the different fevers, and exhibited with this view, in a series of tables and diagrams, the weighty statistics of the London Fever Hospital, which showed, among other points, that as a rule typhus and enteric fever prevail at different seasons of the year. …' It was, however, not till 1869 that the various forms of * Originally read before the Epidemiological Society of London, April 8th, 1885. XX , CONT/NUEZ) FE VERS ZAV ZOAWDOAV 395 continued fever, previously classed together under the head of “typhus” or “fever,” were distinguished in the returns of the Registrar-General. In Table I. are shown the deaths in London from “fever” during a period of forty-eight years, taken from the TABLE I.—Deaths from Continued Fevers in London ; also Death-rates per 1000 living, from the same diseases, in each of the forty-eight years 1837-1884. Rate Rate Rate Year. |Deaths. per Year. |Deaths. per Year. |Deaths. per 1000. 1000. 1000. 1837 | 19331|| 2:12 iſ 1853 2617 | 1 oé | 1869 || 2400 o'76 1838 4078 || 2:31 1854 2816 || 1:12 || 1870 2018 o'63 1839 || 1819 || I’o I 1855 2460 o’97 || 1871 1691 o'52 1840 | 1262 | c.69 || 1856 2717 | I of 1872 | 1303 o'39 184I | 1151 o°62 | 1857 2195 o'83 || 1873 | 1510 | o'45 1842 1184 o°62 | 1858 1919 o'72 | 1874 1528 o'45 1843 | 2094 | 1.08 || 1859 1840 o'68 || 1875 | 1217 o'35 1844 1721 o'85 | 1860 1476 o'53 | 1876 1130 o'32 1845 1324 o'64 || 1861 | 1848 o'66 | 1877 | 1252 o'34 1846 | 1838 o'87 | 1862 3673 || 1:28 1878 1381 o'37 1847 || 3297 | 1.47 | 1863 2871 o'99 || 1879 || 1080 o'29 1848 || 3685 | 1.65 1864 || 3782 | I 28 1880 910 o'25 1849 || 2564 || 1:13 | 1865 3217 | I of | 1881 | 1197 o'3o 1850 | 2032 o'88 - 1866 2688 o’88 || 1882 1123 o 28 1851 || 2374 || 1:oo | 1867 2184 o'71 || 1883 1120 o°28 1852 2183 o’90 | 1868 2468 o'79 || 1884 || 1035 o'26 Total, 16 Total, 16 Total, 16 years 34,539 years 40,771 years 21,895 Mean 2159 || 1:12 || Mean 2548 || 0-91 || Mean | 1368 || 0-39 Annual Summary for 1885; also the death-rates per 1000 estimated to be living in London in each year. It is at once seen that, in spite of the enormous increase of popula- tion, the absolute loss of life from “fever" is less now than it was ten years ago; much less than it was twenty, thirty, or even forty years ago. When allowance is made * Six months only. 396 STUDIES IN STATISTICS CHAP. for the increase of population, it appears that the mortality from this cause has, during the last sixteen years, been but 35 per cent. of what it was during the sixteen years ending with 1852. The decrease has been almost unin- terrupted since 1864. In Table II. are shown similar facts from the same ABLE II.-Deaths from Typhus, Simple Continued, and Enteric Fevers in London, and also Death-rates per 1000 living, from the same diseases, in each of the sixteen years 1869-1884. Typhus. Simple continued. Enteric. Year. Deaths. Rate. Deaths. Rate. Deaths. Rate, 1869 716 o°23 615 o'IQ 1,069 O'34 1870 472 o’ I 5 570 o'I8 976 o'3o 1871 384 O"I 2 436 o'I3 871 o'27 1872 174 o'o 5 322 O'IO 807 o°24 1873 277 o'o.8 325 O'IO 908 o°27 1874 312 o°og 337 O” IO 879 o'26 1875 128 O'O4 272 o'o8 817 o°23 1876 159 O'O4 202 o'o6 769 O”22 1877 157 O'O4 194 o'o6 901 o°25 1878 151 O'O4 197 o'o6 1,033 o'28 1879 71 O"O2 160 O'O4. 849 o°23 1880 74 O'O2 134 O'O4. 702 o'I9 1881 92 O“O2 134 o'O3 971 o°25 1882 53 O“OI 95 O“O2 975 o°25 1883 55 O“OI 102 o'O3 963 o°24 1884 32 O“OI 78 O“O2 925 o°23 Total ...] 3,307 4,173 14,415 Mean ... 207 0.06 261 0.08 900 0-25 sources, but under the three headings first adopted by the Registrar-General in 1869, viz. Typhus, Simple Continued Fever, and Enteric Fever. The first point to notice is, that during the sixteen years typhus was made accountable for 3,307 deaths; simple continued fever for a considerably larger number, XX CONTINUED FE VERS IN LONDOW 397 4,173; but enteric fever for nearly twice as many deaths as the other two diseases put together, viz. 14,415. Secondly, whereas in the earlier years typhus Wà.S. accredited with about the same number of deaths as simple continued fever, and enteric fever with numbers only half as large again, latterly the proportions have been very different : typhus now numbers only half as many victims as simple continued fever, whereas enteric fever claims ten times as many. In other words, the death- rates per 1000 show that whereas the relative mortality from simple continued fever is but one-tenth of what it was, and that from typhus only one-twentieth, the fall in the enteric fever rate amounts to only 30 per cent. The great diminution in the fever mortality of London is, then, mainly due to the diminished prevalence of typhus and simple continued fever, while the mortality from enteric fever has remained for ten years comparatively stationary.” Typhus is a definite and well-known disease ; it is far otherwise with simple continued fever. Murchison says, “Simple continued fever, when un- complicated, is rarely, if ever, fatal in this country. The numerous deaths from simple fever recorded weekly by the Registrar-General are due for the most part to enteric fever with latent abdominal symptoms.” Again, “Many cases are designated Simple Fever or Febricula, which are in reality mild or abortive cases of typhus or enteric fever, or relapsing fever without the * More accurate diagnosis and increased precision in the use of terms have doubtless to some extent increased the recorded mortality from enteric fever at the expense of typhus. The seasonal prevalence of the two diseases as registered shows that this cause cannot have been so efficient as might have been supposed. * Continued Fevers (2nd ed.), p. 682. <^. N. 398 STUDIAES IN STATIS 7/CS' chap. *— relapse, or catarrh with an unusual amount of febrile disturbance.” " Again, “Medical men often decline to call a fever ‘enteric,’ in which, as often happens, there are no enteric symptoms, and hence the intestinal lesion is apt to be overlooked until it unexpectedly becomes a source of danger. This mainly accounts for the circumstance that in the returns of the Registrar-General deaths are weekly ascribed to ‘Simple Continued Fever, a disease which in twenty-five years has not once been fatal in the London Fever Hospital.”” Again, he states that the cases of Febricula admitted into the London Fever Hospital during the twenty-three years 1848-70, amounted to 2,232.” On the one hand we have the emphatic and reiterated statement of a deservedly respected authority, founded upon vast experience; on the other the opinion of the large body of medical men in London, who certified that 4,173 deaths in sixteen years were caused by this disease— simple continued fever. It is now fifteen years since Messrs. Buchan and Mitchell, in the Journal of the Scottish Meteorological Society, compared the seasonal prevalence in London of the three forms of continued fever. The curves they obtained were based on but six years' results. Concerning typhus they remark, “It is, however, a curve which calls for clearer definition from future observations, though it seems probable that it has two maxima, the larger in the early months of the year, and the smaller in the height of summer.” Of simple continued fever they say, “This curve . . . is not very satisfactory, and further observa- tions are required to define it with greater precision.” 1 Op. cit., p. 678. * Ibid. p. 420. * Ibid. p. 684, table. XX CONTIAWUED FE VERS IN LONDON 399 More facts are now available, viz.:- (1) Monthly admissions to the London Fever Hospital for the twenty-three years 1848-70.” These are available for typhus and enteric fever only. See Table III. (2) Weekly admissions to the hospitals of the Metro- politan Asylums Board for the ten years 1875-84. From the returns supplied to the Registrar-General, and pub- lished in the weekly reports. These also do not give simple continued fever. See Table IV. . . (3) Weekly deaths in London during the six years 1869-74.” See Table W. TABLE III—Admissions to the London Fever Hospital in each month during the twenty-three years 1848-1870. Typhus. 3. Enteric Fever. Percent- Percent- T ty- T tW- º, *|† lºſſ. Avenge |º January ... 1,976 85-9 || 130 433 I8-8 87 February ... 1,621 7 o’5 106 306 I3'3 61 March ... ... 1,906 82'9 125 3.18 13.8 64 April ... ... 1,642 71°4 || 108 209 9"I 42 May ... ...| 1,525 66.3 100 232 IO"I 46 June ... ...] 1,296 56'3 85 335 14-6 67 July ... ...] 1,251 54'4 82 434 18.9 87 August... ... 1,183 5 I'4 78 721 3 I'3 144 September ...] 1,162 5O'5 76 803 34°9 161 October ... 1,429 62 “I 94 839 36.5 | 168 November ... 1,667 72°5 | 110 819 35-6 || 164 December ... 1,610 7 o’o 106 539 23°4 108 Total ... ...! 18,268 tº C & ... 5,988 Mean ... ...] 1,522 | 66.2 100 || 499 || 217 | 100 1 Murchison, Treatise on the Continued Fevers of Great Britain (2nd ed.), pp. 66, 446. a' *Buchan and Mitchell, Journal of the Scottish Meteorological Society, Feb. 1875, p. 256. 4OO STUDIES ZW STATESTICS CHAP. TABLE IV.-Average weekly admissions to the Hospitals of the Metropolitan Asylums Board during the ten years 1875-1884. Typhus. Enteric Fever. Scarlatina. Week. Month. Percent- Percent- Percent- Average. age of Average. age of | Average. age of Mean. Mean. Mean. 1st ... January f 2-6 Y 8-6 || 106 24°5 94 2nd ... ?? - * * 3'O } 125 87 | 108 23'9 91 3rd ... }} • * * 2"O 77 95 22°3 85 4th ... 32 e º e 23 J 6:3 78 216 82 5th ... February 4. I 6'5 80 25'9 99 6th ... 73 s • * 2°3 150 | 57 71 19.8 76 7th ... 79 - * * 2'3 7.2 89 17:6 67 8th ... 97 e s - 3'2 5'8 72 I8' I 69 9th ... | March ... 2°o h 5'o 62 I9'2 73 10th ... 35 - - - I '8 4'7 58 17.2 66 11th ... 37 - * * I '8 | 95 5'5 68 I6'4. 63 12th ... 99 • * * I'3 5°9 || 73 16:9 65 13th ... 73 e s e 2'4 J 5'9 73 15-6 60 14th ... April ... I'7 4-8 59 I5'2 58 15th ... }} • * * I '8 | 95 || 4 || || 3. I9'4. 74 16th ... 39 e º e I'3 | 4'7 58 17.2 66 17th ... }} • * * 27 | J 49 61 || 17-9 68 18th ... | May ... I '8 3-8 47 177 68 19th ... 39 - > * I ‘2 | 75 42 52 18.9 72 20th ... 72 - - - I "2 4'4 54 18-5 71 21st ... }} • * * I-6 || J 4'o 50 16:9 65 22nd ... June ... 2'4. Y 4.3 53 23'5 90 23rd ... }} • * * I'4 | 3'3 41 22"O 84 24th ... 35 - * * I "O }- 90 37 || 46 23'3 89 25th ... 39 e º e 2'4. ] 4'9 61 24'8 95 26th ... 39 se e I'6 4.7 58 23.7 90 27th ... July ... I "O T 3°4 || 42 25-6 98 28th ... 35 - - - I'6 } 60 | 33 41 25'4. 97 29th ... 32 e < * I "I | 4'8 59 27.4 105 30th ... 95 - - - I'I J 6-8 | 84 26.9 103 31st ... August ... I "2 6-6 || 82 28°o 107 32nd ... 3? - - - O'5 70 8°O | 99 297 113 33rd ... 35 - - - 2"O 6-8 | 84 28'9 110 34th ... 99 • * * I'7 7'o 87 3I'4. 120 35th ... September O'8 \ 77 | 95 26'2 100 36th ... 35 - - - I*2 | 9°o 111 34'3 131 37th ... 95 e º e 2'4. 85 Io:6 || 131 35'5 135 38th ... 39 e < * 2’6 | 13.8 171 39'3 150 39th ... 33 - - - I-6 127 | 157. 38.1 145 40th ... October 17 I6-8 208 35'9 137 41st ... 39 - - - I'9 95 || 7 | 212 387 148 42nd ... 93 s • e I'5 I8-2 || 225 4O7 155 43rd ... 99 • * * 2'4 1973 || 239 34'O 130 44th ... November 2'3 I8"I | 224 42'O 160 45th ... 99 • * * 29 140 | {5} 187 33-6 128 46th ... 35 - - - 3:6 13-6 || 168 36'o 137 47th ... 35 - - - 2'4. I2’6 || 156 387 148 48th ... December 2'5 Y 12:9 | 160 || 3o'o 115 49th ... 33 - - - 3'2 | II 7 | 1.45 32'2 123 50th ... 35 - - - 2°8 }-135 | Io'4 129 34’3 131 51st ... 33 e < * 2’6 | 7' 5 93 27.3 104 52nd ... 99 • * * 2'4. J 7.1 88 24'O 92 Mean ... * * * * g e 2"O 100 8' I 100 26'2 100 XX COWZYAVUED AºE WEA'S IN LOWDOW 4OI TABLE W.-Average weekly deaths in London, and percentage of the Mean. SIX YEARS, 1869-74.” TEN YEARS, 1875-1884. e $1nal) Enteric Sil Typhus. º cºa Typhus Fever. cºa. Week. | Month. s ##| * #ä * # = * # 5 t #3 2. # § 9, É § 3. # q) q) #: SP 9 É: § as £: $ $3 šš ** |f| ##|##| ##|##|##| #: ##|##| ##| #: 1st Jan. 9°5 125 | 18to 102 || Io'7 | 122 || 1 7 18-8 110 || 4'o 2nd ,, Io'7 141 || 17-8 || 101 | 11 o 125 || 2:6 112 || 17.2 101 || 4' I 121 3rd 2 3 8-5 | 112 || 17.5 99 || 8-8 100 || 1:9 16.2 | 95 || 3:2 4th 9 3 9°7 | 128 17.5 99 || 7-7 | 88 || 2:o 17-6 || 103 || 3’5 5th Feb. 7-7 || 101 || 17-3 || 98 || 9-7 || 110 || 2:1 14.8 || 87 || 3'O 6th 99 83 || 109 || 17.5 99 || 9-7 || 110 || 2:o 102 || 45.5 91 2'3 92 7th , | Io'3 || 136 || 21 2 | 120 | 8-8 100 || 2:1 I6-6 || 97 || 3-8 8th 92 9°7 128 16'o 91 || 13.2 150 || 1 3 14' I | 83 || 2'5 9th Mar. 7'o 92 | 15'o 85 8-3 || 94 || 1 7 13-2 || 77 || 3'O 10th 5 * 6'7 | 88 || 17-7 || 101 || 9-3 || 106 || 2:4 107 || 5.9 88 || 2:9 11th 35 88 117 | 15.2 | 86 Io-5 | 119 || 2:5 16-4 96 || 4'O | }. 102 12th 93 9°o 119 | 18-o 102 || 9°o 102 || 1:8 | 15-9 || 93 || 2:5 13th 9 3 78 || 103 || 16-o 91 9°o 102 || 1 7 16-5 97 || 3'4 14th April 7'o 92 | 15.5 | 88 || 8-8 100 || 2:1 14"I 83 || 4°o }º , || 3:2 ||38||14.5 82 || || 7 ||38|| || 7 || 112 | 16.3 96 || 2:4 || 108 16th ,, . Io'3 || 136 15 O | 85 | 8°o 91 || 2:O I2 “I | 71 || 4°o 17th 2 3 8.8 116 || 14-2 || 81 | 8-5 97 || 2:6 13-1 || 77 2-9 18th May 7.5 99 || 13.2 75 8-7 99 || 2:9 12'3 || 72 3’5 19th 3 9 8’o 105 || 13-o 74 || 7-2 || 82 || 1:2 96 || 103 || 33 || 23 || 108 20th 33 6:3 83 || 13.5 77 | 8-5 97 || 1:9 II 4 || 67 || 3:8 21st 5 3 72 94 | II 8 || 67 || 8-2 | 93 | I to 13 3 || 78 || 3:8 22nd June | 7'o 92 || 14-5 82 9-5 || 108 || 2:7 II 2 | 66 || 2:5 23rd 35 6'7 | 88 || 14-2 || 81 9:8 111 || 1 5 | - | 12:1 || 71 || 3:2 24th 33 6-8 89 || 14-5 82 8-8 100 || 1 5 || || 102 | 12'o 70 2-5 92 25th 2 3 5’2 | 68 || 12:8 | 73 || 8'o 91 || 2'o j Io’5 | 62 || 2:8 26th 9 3 6'5 86 12-3 || 70 | 67 || 76 || 2:o 11-6 | 68 || 3:2 |J 27th July 7.5 99 || 12:8 | 73 || 7-3 || 83 || 2:o II '8 || 69 || 2:6 # | | | 98 |139||138|| 7 || 72 |.82| | | | | so | 13.2 || 7 || 4 || || 102 29th 3 3 57 || 75 | 15.7 | 89 9-2 || 105 || I'7 | 12-3 || 72 2'5 30th 33 8'5 112 || 14-2 || 81 || 8-2 || 93 || 1 to 14-6 || 86 || 3:2 31st, Aug. 7'o 92 || 17-o 97 7'o 80 || 1 -5 II 3 | 66 || 2:7 32nd ,, 7'2 95 || 14-5 | 82 | 7'o 80 || 1:2 70 15.2 $9 || 2:3 95 33rd 5 2. 7.2 95 20-8 118 || 6’2 70 || 1 °2 / 15-3 || 90 || 3:8 34th 3 9 4-2 || 55 | 19.2 || 109 || 7-3 || 83 I I 14-5 | 85 2°6 35th Sept. | 6′o 79 22.3 | 126 || 67 || 76 || 2:o I5'5 91 2*7 |\ 36th ; 9 6'3 | 83 | 16.5 94 || 92 || 105 | I 3 | 16:9 99 || 3’5 || 37th , , | 6′o 79 || 19.3 || 110 || Io:7 | 122 || 2:o 96 || 20 "I | 118 2°2 | 86 38th 3 3 6:3 | 83 | 19.5 111 | 8-8 100 | I '9 | 22°4 131 2°3 39th ,, . 62 82 20'I | 118 9-3 || 103 || I-8 |J 21:9 | 128 || 2:9 |J 40th Oct. 97 128 207 || 118 8°o 91 || 2:2 24'6 || 144 2-8 41st 9 5 88 || 116 || 20-3 || 115 9:8 111 || 1:8 U107 || 25-3 || 148 || 3-5 105 42nd , , 77 || 101 | 19.5 111 || 6′5 74 || 2 "I 26-8 |157 37 43rd 95 5'5 | 72 27.5 | 151 || 7-7 || 88 || 1 7 26'3 154| 2°9 44th Nov. 7.5 || 99 || 23.2 | 132 9'o 102 || 1:8 27:2 | 160 || 3-6 45th 2 3 7.2 95 22°o 125 | 8-8 100 || 2 "I 128 27°o | 158 || 3:2 95 46th 35 8-6 || 113 || 24.8 141 8:o 91 || 2:9 25°4 149 || 2 "I 47th 3 3 6°o 79 24'o 136 9'5 108 || 2:6 25°o 147| 3"I 48th | Dec. 92 || 121 | 20:5 117 | 9:8 || 111 || 2:1 25-7 || 151 || 4°o |\ 49th , || 6-8 | 89 || 23.8 || 135||11.5 | 130 || 1:8 || 102 || 21-6 127 | 3:3 50th 33 6'o 79 |22°1 | 125 | 9:8 || 111 || 1:8 20:1 | 118 || 3:2 || 105 51st 95 7'o 92 21 ‘7 | 123 9-7 || 110 || 2-2 21 ‘I 124 || 3:o 52nd 3 2 6'7 | 88 20°o 114 || Io'o 114 | I '8 16-8 99 || 3-1 |J Mean || 7-6 || 100 || 17-6 || 100 | 8-8 || 100 || 1:9 17-1 || 100 || 3:2 * Messrs. Buchan and Mitchell, Journal of the Scottish Mcteorological Society, vol. iv. pp. 250, 256. D D 4O2 STUDIES IN STA TISTICS CHAP. f (4) Weekly deaths in London during the ten years 1875-84. From the weekly returns of the Registrar- General. See Table W. All these facts are set forth in the accompanying diagram (Plate XXVII.), with the limitation that in the case of typhus and simple continued fever, I have con- sidered it best, as the numbers are small, to deal with months in preference to weeks. As (with the exception of the London Fever Hospital statistics) the available figures are given for weeks only, the number taken to represent January is the sum of the first four weeks of the year, February the second four weeks of the year, and so on ; but for March, June, September, and December the number taken is four-fifths of the sum of the five weeks taken to correspond to these months. For the purposes in hand it is necessary to consider the months as of equal length; but as there are fifty-two weeks in the year, it is necessary to drop out four weeks. This may seem a complicated arrangement, but it is really simple, and does not materially affect the accuracy of any conclusions drawn. - Throughout the diagram the blue curves relate to typhus, red to simple continued fever, and yellow to enteric fever. The curves show the average deviation per cent. from the mean, the dark colour indicating excess, the light colour defect. They are all strictly comparable, being on one uniform scale, each small division corresponding to ten per cent. The actual mean weekly, or monthly, number of admissions or deaths is given in figures on the right hand. - The first point to note is that the various curves derived from different sets of figures, and relating to CONTINUED FEVERS IN LONDON. , FEB, MARCH | APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG, SEP, OCT, INOV, I DEC, TYPHus FEveR. H - --- Monthly ADMissions to the LONDON FEVER HOSPITAL Monthly ADMISSIONS to the Metropolitan Asylum Board HOSPITALS 9. Monthly DEATHS in the METROPOLIS Monthly DEATHS in the METROPOLIS SIMPLE CONTINUED FEVER. Monthly DEATHS in the METROPOLIS Monthly DEATHS in the METROPOLIS 38. ENTER C F EVER Monthly ADMISSIONS to the LONDON FEVER HOS PITAL to the Metropolitan --------------------- Asylum Board -OSPITALS 8. Weekly DEATHS 18. in the METROPOLIS Weekly DEATHS 17. in the METROPOLIS --- +--- -- ---- H --- | | | - III I | | | | | I - —l- FEB, MARCH APR. MAY 1 JUNE JULY AUG, SE P. OCT, NOW. DEC. Jºanwords tºtaº" The curves represent the percentage deviation above or below the mean of the average monthly or weekly admissions or deaths. One small division of the vertical scale corresponds to 10 per cent, The figures at the side give the actual means. 33. AVERACE 66. Twenty three Years. 1848 – 1870 AVERACE Ten Years. 1875 – 1884 AVERACE Six Years. 1869 - 1874 AVERACE .Ten Years. 1875-1884 AVE RACE Six Years 1869 - 1874. AVERACE Ten Years 1875 - 1884. AVERACE 22. Twenty three years 548 - 1870 AVERACE Ten Years 1975 - 1984. Ave RACE Six Years 1939 - 1974. Ave RACE Ten Years 1875-1884 | XX CONTINUED FE VERS IAW LOAVIDON 4O3 different periods, give in the main concordant results in the case of each disease. This general agreement—which is, indeed, in the case of enteric fever, very close, and in the case of typhus sufficiently marked—is in itself a proof that these diseases are, in some way or another, directly or indirectly influenced by season ; and that they are differently influenced is evident, for enteric fever, whether measured by hospital admissions or by deaths, is most prevalent in the autumn, whereas the other diseases show a preference for winter and spring. As the curves of enteric fever are most definite, and as that disease is now the most fatal form of continued fever, it will be convenient to consider it first. The curves of hospital admissions in the main agree. In both the curve is decidedly below the average from the beginning of March to the end of July, and as decidedly above the average in the last four months of the year. But in two respects they differ: in the older returns of the London Fever Hospital the admissions were much above the mean during August; in the later returns of the hospitals of the Metropolitan Asylums Board some- what below. Again, the admissions to the former hospital were about equal for September, October, and November, whereas in the latter the October admissions were by far the most numerous. An explanation of one at least of these discrepancies is not far to seek. The Metropolitan Asylums Board has, actually or potentially, an inde- finite amount of accommodation ; hence, in all probability, the number of admissions is a true measure of the prevalence of the disease, and the curve resulting is some measure of the real influence of season on the epidemic. On the other hand, in the case of the London Fever Hospital, it is far otherwise; the amount of available accommodation is strictly limited. In the earlier stages of 4O4. STUDYES IAV SZTA 7TWSTICS CHAP. the epidemic all cases are admitted, but no doubt, as the cases become more numerous, a portion of them have to be refused admission. The hospital is constantly full during several weeks when the epidemic is at its height, and so the true maximum is not represented in the curve : moreover, by the same process the horizon of the mean is lowered, and a glance at the second curve shows that if its mean were lowered a little, the July admissions would appear above the average, and so correspond with the curve above. As regards the two mortality curves for enteric fever, it may be noted that, as we might expect, the second curve, representing as it does the figures of a much longer period, is “smoother,” and probably truer than the first. But, in spite of minor differences, the general agreement of these curves with one another, and with the curves of admissions, is very striking, and generally it may be stated, (1) that in the case of enteric fever the disease is least prevalent in late spring and early summer; (2) that the rise from the minimum may occur gradually as early as May, or suddenly as late as July; (3) that it sometimes exceeds the mean of the year in August, always in September, and reaches a maximum about the end of October or beginning of Novem- ber; (4) that from that point it declines more or less rapidly, usually reaching the mean again about the close of the year, and then declining with occasional small outbreaks throughout the first three months of the year to its minimum. It may be remarked that a comparison with the smaller diagram (Plate XXVIII.) shows the curves of enteric fever to approximate very closely to those of scarlet fever, although they are not identical with them. The most essential difference between the two curves is, I take it, that in the case of scarlatina, the rise from the minimum. S C A R L ET F EVER, LO N D O N . Weekly Average 10 Years 1875-1884. JAN. FEB. |MARCH. APR. MAY. JUNE. JULY.] AUG. SEP. OCT. NOV. DEC. Weekly ADMISSIONS to HOSPITALS of Metropolitan Asylums Mean 26 - |9 Board (Percentage of Mean) Weekly DEATHS in LONDON Mean 43-45 (Percentage of Mean) º ºg e & Iondon. Stanfords Geog'Estab: One Division of the Vertical Scale Corresponds to 10 per Cent. XX CONTIAWUED FE VERS WAV LONDON 4O5 —é TABLE VI.—Average weekly deaths from Scarlatina in London during the ten years 1875-1884. Percent- ſ Percent- Week. Month. |#. ºf week. Month. |#. #. 1st ... January ... 457 | 105 || 27th ... July ... 36°I 83 2nd ... 32 ... 48.3 | 111 || 28th ... » . . . . 39'3 91 3rd ... 3) ... 47°o 108 || 29th ... » . . . . 39'9 92 4th ... ,, ... 46'I 106 || 30th ... ,, ... 465 | 107 5th ... February... 39'3 90 || 31st ... August ... 4o'8 94 6th ... 32 ... 35'4 81 | 32nd ... » ... 462 106 7th ... }} ... 32-8 75 33rd ... » . . . . 41'5 96 8th ... 32 ... 338 78 || 34th ... » ... 46°o 106 9th ... | March ... 31'4 72 || 35th ... September 44.7 103 10th ... 35 ... 29'7 68 || 36th ... 3, ... . 42'O 97 11th ... 59 ... 27′4. 63 || 37th ... ,, ... 43'6 100 12th ... 23 ... 282 65 || 38th ... ,, ... 482 111 13th ... ,, ... 317 | 73 || 39th ... ,, ... 56'3 || 130 14th ... April ... 26.8 62 | 40th ... October... 57.8 133 15th ... ,, ... 26.8 62 || 41st ... ,, ... 61 °5 142 16th ... 33 ... 29.8 69 || 42nd ... ,, ... | 66°o 152 17th ... *} ... 27°7 64 || 43rd ... ,, ... 67'5 155 18th ... May ... | 33-6 77 || 44th ... November | 68.3 157 19th ... 25 ... 3I 2 72 || 45th ... ,, ... 67'I 154 20th ... 25 ... 29' I 67 || 46th ... » ... 65'4 151 21st ... ,, ... 33°o 76 || 47th ... ,, ... 64°8 || 149 22nd ... June ... 35'O 81 || 48th ... December 63'o 145 23rd ... ,, ... | 33-6 || 77 || 49th ... ,, ... [ 57°4 || 132 24th ... }} ... 34"O 78 || 50th ... ,, ... 58-9 136 25th ... }} ... 34"9 80 || 51st ... 3, ... 5 I'9 119 26th ... 22 ... 34'9 80 || 52nd ... ,, ... 48’4 111 Mean... © tº e 43’5 100 to the maximum is longer and more gradual than in the case of enteric fever. See also Tables IV. and VI. This great resemblance between the curves should be kept in mind; but although we can say that scarlatina and enteric fever are both, whether directly or indirectly, greatly influenced by season, and are moreover affected in a very similar manner, and even to precisely the same extent (so far at least as the mortality curves go, the maxima and minima in the two cases being identical), I do not consider that any further inference is justifiable. There does not appear to be any correspondence (as is found in the case of scarlet fever), either direct or inverse, 1 See Chapter XVI. 4O6 STUD/ES IAW STA TYST/CS CHAP. between the figures in Table II. and the rainfall at Greenwich. Next let us examine the typhus curves. The numbers being, with the exception of the admissions to the London Fever Hospital, very small, it seemed better to deal with months rather than weeks. The two sets of hospital statistics are scarcely liable to errors of careless or incompetent diagnosis, and, as might be expected, give better curves than the Registrar-General's figures. The hospital returns agree in the main; they both show the prevalence of typhus to be below the average in the five months June to October inclusive, and above the average in the four months November to February inclusive. The earlier returns give a much greater number of cases for March, April, and May than the later. According to the first curve, the maximum is in January; according to the second, in February. The two curves of deaths agree in representing the mortality as below the average in May, August, and September, and above the average in the first four months of the year, and in October. The most striking discrep- ancies are in July and November. If we attempt to combine the four curves, we may perhaps say:-The mortality from, and the admissions to hospitals for, typhus are at a minimum in July, August, or September; from this minimum they increase to an autumn maximum, commonly in November, but it may be in October; they usually continue excessive throughout the winter, and another maximum is reached in January or February, which commonly exceeds the autumn maximum. The fall is irregular; it may be sudden in March, or more gradual and as late as May. Typhus is more infectious than enteric fever; its out- breaks are of less frequent occurrence, but may be much XX COAVT/AVUED FE VERS WAV ZOAVZ) O AW 4O7 more severe. It is not nearly so much influenced by season as Scarlatina or enteric fever, but so far as it is influenced, it may be described as a disease of late autumn, winter, and early spring. Lastly, as regards simple continued fever, the only facts to go by are the London deaths. The numbers are small and the curves very irregular, and not very concord- ant. The fluctuations from the mean are even smaller than in the case of typhus. December, January, March, and, in the first curve, February, are months of high mortality; June and August, months of low mortality. The statements of Murchison quoted above would have led us to expect some indication at least, in the simple continued fever curves, of the well-marked autumnal maximum of enteric fever, but there is not a trace of this. On the other hand, there is some sort of resemblance between this curve and that of typhus mortality; and, indeed, if the two typhus mortality curves be combined, and also those of simple continued fever, this resemblance becomes very marked. In both the minimum is in August, the maximum in January; in both the mortality is decidedly low from June to September, and decidedly high in January, February, and March. It is not disputed that the deaths ascribed to simple continued fever are largely, probably mainly, due to something very different, and that, were it not for ignor- ance and carelessness in diagnosis, the deaths would have been registered in still smaller numbers than has been the case of late; but it does not, therefore, follow that these deaths have been mainly due to enteric fever. I contend that the diagram proves that but a very small proportion of them can be attributed to that cause. Among diseases the true nature of which may conceivably be overlooked, there might be suggested, 'in addition to typhus and 408 S7'UD/ES MAW STA TVST/CS CHAP. enteric fever, the following:—General tuberculosis, septic- aemia, pneumonia, intermittent fever. It must be remem- bered that it is easier to diagnose the presence of fever than to ascertain its cause. Incidentally the figures obtained for the purpose of this paper throw light on the extent to which the hospitals of the Metropolitan Asylums Board are made use of. Mr. A. C. Waters has prepared for me a table (Table VII.) TABLE VII.-Deaths from Enteric Fever, Typhus, and Scarlet Fever in London ; also those occurring in the Hospitals of the Metropolitan District Asylums Board, 1873-1889. Deaths in Metropolitan Percentage of deaths in Total deaths in London. District Asylums Board these hospitals to total Hospitals. deaths in London. © . Kø --> , Gº rº, © . ad +-> Cº ...: C - e td --> co as §§ | # # 3 || || 3 | ##| # | ##| || #| #3 | # | ##| # #; # #3 | ## ## | # #; ##| || # E. §§ #; #if: E | }; ÉÉ ##| | E | ##| || # 1 FF | P: | }. Fº I ºf 1873 908 || 277 645 1,830 56 9I 6 || 153 62 || 32°9 0-9 8°4 1874 879 || 312 2,648 || 3,839 63 Ioff 89 258 || 7-2 || 34°o 3-4 || 6-7 1875 817 I28 8,677 4,622 78 I6 160 || 254 9°5 I2 5 4 4 5-5 1876 769 || 159 2,308 || 3,236 59 || 28 90 177 || 7-7 || 17-6 || 3-9 || 5-5 1877 901 || 157 | 1,580 || 2,638 79 6 54 169 8.8 22-9 3-4 6°4 1878 1,033 151 | 1,808 || 2,9 100 47 91 238 9-7 || 31 ºr 5-0 8-0 1879 849 71 2,661 3,58 74 II 211 || 296 87 15-5 7-9 8-3 1880 702 || 74 || 3,100 3,876 43 6 242 291 || 6-1 || 8-1 || 7-8 || 7-5 1881 971 92 || 2,114 || 3,177 86 34 | 168 288 8-9 || 37°o || 7-9 || 9-1 1882 975 53 | 2,006 || 3,034 104 27 | 189 320 || 10-7 || 5o:9 || 9-4 || 10:5 Mean ten years 880 147 2,255 || 3,282 74 40 | 130 244 || 4 27-2 || 5-8 || 7-4 1883 963 55 2,006 || 3,024 || 74 II 234 || 319 || 7-7 20°o 11-7 || 10:5 I884 925 32 1,430 2,387 98 5 234 || 337 || 10:6 15-6 | 16’4 || 14-1 I885 597 28 722 1,347 36 7 130 173 6-0 || 25°o | 18-0 || 12:8 1886 618 I3 690 1,321 47 4 151 202 7-6 || 30-8 21:9 || 153 1887 612 19 | 1,443 2,074 61 4 || 489 554 || 10-0 || 2: "I | 33-9 || 26-7 1888 694 9 | 1,214 1,917 | 72 — 501 || 573 || 10:4 | – || 41-3 || 29.9 1889 588 I5 784 1,337 41 6 || 366 || 413 7-6 || 4o'o 46-7 || 30-9 Mean seven years 707 24 | 1,184 || 1,915 61 5 301 || 367 8-6 20-8 25-4 || 19.2 showing for each of the seventeen years 1873–89, the total deaths in the metropolis from enteric fever, typhus, and scarlet fever; also the deaths in the hospitals of the Metropolitan Asylums Board for the same years, and the percentages that the latter are of the former. This shows that, as regards enteric fever, proportions varying from 6 to 11 per cent. of the deaths have occurred in the hospitals; as regards typhus, the proportions have varied from 8 to 51 per cent. (in 1882); and as regards scarlet XX CONTIAWUED FE VERS WAV LONDOW 4O9 fever, proportions steadily increasing from 1 per cent. in 1873 to 47 per cent, in 1889. In the case of the two former diseases the proportions treated in the hospitals of the Board have increased of late years, but in an irregular manner and not to a very great extent. In Table VIII. are given the ratios of the total deaths TABLE VIII.-Enteric Fever, Typhus, and Scarlet Fever; proportions borne by Deaths in all London to Admissions to Hospitals of the Metropolitan District Asylums Board. Enteric Fever. Typhus. Scarlet Fever. ă:3 | = à l ###| # 3 | H = - # 1 ###| H = | F. - 3 #| 5 |####|##| #|####|##| ##| #### £3. 3, 5 B | # 3 T â #33, # 3 | # 3 – 3 || 3:33, # = | ## T.; #3 | #3 | #335 | #3 | #3 | #335 | ###| #3 gāśā ăsă 35 | 3-Tă |33 || 3- 5* 3 ||38|| 5* | **Tä 1873 381 908 238 401 || 277 69 92 || 645 701 1874 435 | 879 || 202 || 536 || 312 58 804 || 2,648 || 329 1875 299 || 817 273 65 128 197 1,182 3,677 311 1876 288 769 267 139 159 114 671 2,308 344 1877 372 901 || 242 | 1.70 | 157 92 479 1,580 || 330 1878 484 || 1033 213 I68 151 90 679 | 1,808 || 266 1879 385 | 849 221 48 71 || 148 || 1,469 || 2,661 | 181 1880 248 || 702 283 28 74 264 I,949 || 3,100 159 1881 415 || 977 234 219 92 .43 I,477 2,114 143 1882 515 915 189 I48 53 36 1,850 2,006 108 Mean 10 years. I 382 | 880 || 230 || 192 || 147 77 | 1,065 2,255 212 1883 486 || 963 | 198 45 55 | 122 || 1,920 2,006 || 104 1884 493 || 925 | 188 29 || 32 || 110 | 1,845 1,430 78 1885 22O 597 || 271 53 || 28 53 || 1,353 || 722 53 1886 333 618 186 ſo | 13 || 130 || 1,78o 690 39 1887 44I 612 139 35 19 54 || 5,900 | 1,443 24 1888 450 | 694 | 154 I 9 || 900 || 4,408 || 1,214 28 1889 290 || 538 186 23 15 65 || 4,518 784 17 Mean 7 years. 388 707 182 28 24 86 3,103 || 1,184 38 in London to the admissions to the hospitals, another way of measuring the work done by the latter. There was until quite recently no means of ascertaining the total number of cases in London, and some time must elapse before we shall have a sufficient series of returns under the Infectious Diseases (Notification) Act. 4 IO S 7 UD/ES MAV SZTA TYSTICS CHAP. [I have added to Tables VII. and VIII. the correspond- ing figures for the five years 1885-89. It will be noticed that as regards typhus and enteric fever, the proportion borne by the deaths in hospitals to the total deaths has not very materially altered, but as regards scarlet fever it is plain that the Metropolitan Asylums Board has dealt with a constantly increasing proportion of the London cases. In 1888, cases of diphtheria were admitted for the first time, ninety-nine cases coming under treatment in that year; the number increased to 722 in 1889. The pro- portions borne by these numbers to the total cases in London are indicated by the following table: – DIPEITHERIA IN LONDON. Admissions to Hospitals Deaths in Total death Proportion of deaths in of Metropolitan Asylums these e º . * Hospitals to 100 Deaths Board. Hospitals IIl LOIlClOſl. in London. 99 ... ... 46 tº º 1311 ... ... 3-5 722 ... ... 275 ... 1588 ... ... 17.3 It is then evident that the new regulations as to the admission of cases of diphtheria have been largely made use of. Though scarcely coming within the scope of this chapter, I have appended a table (Table IX.) showing the mortality in the hospitals compared with the cases treated, or the case-mortality, as it is termed. It will be observed that scarlet fever was more severe in the earlier years of the series than in the later. It will also be observed that diphtheria is a much more mortal illness than typhus or enteric fever, a fortiori than scarlet fever.] My conclusions may be shortly stated. (1) The mortality from enteric fever has not materially diminished in London during the last twelve years. (2) The mortality from both typhus and simple con- XX CONZYAVUED FE VERS WAV LOAVDOAV 4I I TABLE IX—Mortality per cent. of Patients treated in the Hospitals of the Metropolitan District Asylums Board,' 1873-1889. Enteric Fever. Typhus. | Searlet Fever. Diphtheria. ta tº tº º ta - # | # | # || 3 | # | # || 3 || 3 | # | # | 3 | # # | 3 || 3 || 3 || 3 || 3 || 3 || 3 || 3 || 3 || 3 || 3 # | 3 || 5 || 3 | # : # à || 3 || 3 || 3 | # *: a 3 re; 1878 381 56 15:1 4OI 91 23-2 92 6 || 6-6 - - - 1874 435 63 14:9 536 || 106 | 19.6 804 89 || 12'2 - - - .1875 299 78 || 24-7 65 16 || 23-4 1, 182 160 13.7 sm- - - I876 288 59 20'3 I39 28 19°3 671 90 | 12:1 tº- - - 1877 372 79 22-9 17o 36 || 23-1 479 54 | 12:1 * - - 1878 484 100 20-3 I68 47 26-3 679 91 || 14-3 e- - - 1879 385 74 19.7 48 11 21-6 1,469 211 | 15'3 - - - 1880 248 43 15-6 28 6 20-7 I-949 242 | 12:3 - - - 1881 4x5 86 21:5 219 34 || 17-0 I, 477 168 || 11:1 * -- - 1882 515 104 20-7 148 27 | 16.9 1,850 189 10-4 -*. - - 1888 486 74 15-6 45 II | 212 I,92O 234 || 12-4 * - - 1884 493 98 18:8 29 5 | 20-0 1,845 234 || 12:3 * - - 1885 22O 36 15°8 53 7 | 12:2 I 2.353 130 9'5 * - - 1886 333 47 14.9 IO 4 || 42°l 1,78o 151 || 9°4 * - - 1887 44. I 61 14.6 35 4 || 11-6 5,900 489 || 9'5 * - - 1888 450 72 14-6 I - * 4,408 501 || 9-9 99 46 || 59' 4 1889 290 41 15-2 23 6 || 31-6 4,518 366 | 89 || 722 || 275 | 40-7 Total 6,535 | 1,171 - 2,118 439 - 32,376 |3,405 || – 821 || 321 - Mean 384 69 17-8 125 26 || 20.8 1,904 200 || 10-8 411 | 161 || 42-5 1 From a Table in the Report of the Metropolitan Asylums Board for 1889. The mortality of hospital patients is calculated according to Dr. Farr's formula :— - Deaths. Mortality = # Admissions + 3 (Deaths + Discharges). tinued fever has decreased very greatly during the same period. (3) Enteric fever is by far most prevalent in the autumn; the average weekly hospital-admissions, and the mortality in the metropolis, can be expressed as well- defined curves, having maxima at the end of October or beginning of November. (4) The curves of enteric fever strikingly resemble those of scarlatina, but differ in one important respect. The minimum in the case of the latter disease occurs in March or April, and the ascent from that time to the autumn maximum is very gradual; but in the case of enteric fever the minimum occurs in June or July, and the ascent to the maximum is comparatively sudden ; the converse being the case as regards the descent to the minimum. 4. I2 STUDIAE.S ZAV S74 7/S 7/CS CHAP. (5) The statistics of typhus and simple continued fever, so far as figures are available, do not yield well- defined curves of seasonal prevalence. The curves, such as they are, bear no resemblance to those of enteric fever. (6) Typhus is often prevalent in late autumn, but is rather a disease of winter and spring. In early autumn, when enteric fever is approaching its maximum, typhus is far below its average. (7) Simple continued fever is a term applied in a great many cases in error, since, though deaths are often attributed to it, it is but rarely if ever fatal in fever hospitals. (8) The statistics of the last sixteen years show that not more than an inconsiderable proportion of the deaths attributed to simple continued fever (however caused) can be due to enteric fever. (9) The hospitals of the Metropolitan Asylums Board deal with an increasing proportion of the cases of infectious disease in the metropolis, the increase being most marked in the case of Scarlatina. - (10) During the seven years 1883–1889, the deaths in the said hospitals have amounted, in the case of enteric fever, to nearly 9 per cent. of the total deaths from that cause in the metropolis, in the case of typhus to 21 per cent, and in the case of scarlatina to 25 per cent. (in 1888 it amounted to 41, and in 1889 to 47 per cent.) It is hoped that the tables are free from errors. Some small apparent discrepancies are due to the fact that in calculating the percentages the figures were, in some cases, worked out by the calculating machine to several places of decimals, while the figures given in the tables are the nearest whole numbers. XXI HYDROPHOBIA STATISTICS 4 I 3 CHAPTER XXI. HYDROPHOBIA STATISTICS." IT is, I take it, an especial object of this Society to take a general view of the phenomena of the prevalence of epi- demic diseases, or diseases supposed to be epidemic in their nature, whereby facts may be brought to light that might escape the clinical observer; just as the geologist ascertains one set of facts by going into a quarry and examining the face of the rock, but ascertains another scarcely less impor- tant set of facts by observing the general contour of the hills as seen from the other side of the valley. The unprecedented number of deaths from hydro- phobia in London during the year 1885, and the promi- nence given to the outbreak by the Police Order, as well as the great interest excited by M. Pasteur's researches, point to the present as a suitable time to search the official records of this country, and review the facts therein buried. - The arrangement of the Registrar-General's reports makes it convenient to consider separately the prevalence of hydrophobia in England and Wales generally, and in the metropolis. The figures for the latter supply several facts not recorded for the whole country; moreover, it will 1 Originally read at a meeting of the Epidemiological Society of London, 1886. --- 4I4 STUDYES IN STATIS 7 ICS CHAP. be noted in the Tables that the periods covered are not the Same in all cases. TABLE L-Deaths from Hydrophobia in England and Wales and in London.—Forty years, 1846-1885. –-4 1. #| 3 || II. |##| 3 || III. ##| 3 || Iv. |}|| 3 # à # # #| # # # ää | * ää ââ | * ##| = 1846 | * | 1 || 1856 || 5 | ... 1866 || 36 | 11 || 1876 || 53 || 6 1847 5 | ... I857 3 2 1867 || IO 1877 || 79 || 16 1848 7 1 | 1858 2 1868 7 1878 || 50 5 1840 || 17 | ... I 1859 || 4 1869 | 18 || 3 || 1879 || 35 2 1850 | 13 1 1860 3 1870 || 32 1880 29 3 1851 25 I861 4 1871 || 56 1 1881 || 34 5 1852 | 15 ... 1862 1 | ... 1872 | 39 1882 28 4 1853 || || 1 1 || 1863 || 4 || 2 || 1873 || 28 1 || 1883 || 34 || 8 1854 16 || 7 || 1864 12 ... 1874 || 61 9 1884 28 9 1855 14 || 2 || 1865 19 || 9 || 1875 47 || 6 || 1885 60 | 27 Total...] 123 || 13 Total...] 57 || 13 Total...] 334 || 34 Total...] 430 | 85 Mean...! 13.7 1-3 |Mean...] 5-7 | 1.3 Mean...] 33°4| 3:4|Mean...|43-0) 8.5 Rate | Rate Rate Rate per .nal a.k.al Pº tº ... ar, Per .47|1-nal Pº efºº º - mil- 0-76 O 56 mil- 0-28 |O-47 mil- 147|1:04 ºil- Y | 1.66|| 2:23 lion y | lion lion lion Total Deaths. Mean. Rates per million. England and Wales 39 years 944 ... 24.2 & ſº tº 1*11 London ... ... ... 40 years 145 ... 3-6 tº $ tº I • 19 * No returns of “Causes of death" in this year, except for London. England and Wales.—During the thirty-nine years 1847-85 inclusive, no fewer than 944 persons are stated to have died from hydrophobia. (See Table I.) The deaths were very unequally distributed throughout the period. Thus, during the eight years 1856-63 only 26 deaths occurred, or an average of 3 per annum. The figures then rose to 36 in 1866, and fell to 7 in 1868, and rose again to 56 in 1871, from which time they have fluctuated from a minimum of 28 (in 1873, 1882, and XXI Aſ PDA’OPAOA/A STA 7TWS TYCS 4I 5 1884) to a maximum of 79 (in 1877), making an average since 1870 of 43 deaths per annum. If the whole time be divided into four periods of ten years each, it will be seen that the mortality from hydro- phobia has increased considerably, both absolutely and relatively, in the more recent years. In the second period the number of deaths was less than half that in the first, but in the third and fourth periods, even after allowing for increase of population, the mortality was double that in the first period, and five times that in the second period. Of the total 944 deaths from hydrophobia in England and Wales during the thirty-nine years for which the returns are given in Table I., no less than 413 occurred in the eight years 1871-78, during which period the death-rate from this disease averaged 2-13 per million persons living. London.—As regards the metropolis the figures are available from 1845 to 1885 inclusive, a period of forty- one years, during which 147 deaths were attributed to this disease, or an average of 34 deaths per annum. In fourteen of the years no death occurred : indeed, there was complete immunity for the five years 1858-62; but, on the other hand, in 1866 there were 11 deaths, in 1877 as many as 16, and in 1885 no less than 27. Taking periods of ten years, as was done with the figures for England and Wales, similar results are obtained, but the correspondence is only general. Thus, the increase of the fourth period when compared with the third is much more marked in the case of London. Again, while 1874 and 1877 were periods of high mortality, both in the whole country and in London, on the other hand the greatest mortality in England and Wales during the first nineteen years in the Table was in 1851, when there 4 16 S7 UD/ES MAV SZTA TWST/CS CHAP. were 25 deaths registered, but there were none in the metropolis that year. There are also marked discrepancies in 1854, 1865, 1866, and 1871. There seems to be no doubt that the disease is getting commoner in London, and the figure of 1885, viz. 27, has not been approached before, so far at least as our records go. During the first seventeen weeks of 1886, as many as six deaths have been registered, as against four during the corresponding period of 1885." Taking the three periods covered by the decennial reports, and taking the mean populations given in these reports, we get the following average annual death-rates per million living. England and Wales. London. Deaths. Rates. Deaths. Rates. 1851–1860 ... 98 e G o'52 ... 12 ... o'46 1861–1870 ... 143 gº º Gº o'67 ... 28 ... o'92 1871–1880 ... 477 * * * I'96 ... 49 ... I'39 Total ... 718 * * * e - © º, e 9 89 *- - The Table shows that, relatively as well as absolutely, the disease is, both in London and the country as a whole, much more fatal now than it was formerly—some threefold. - Seasonal Prevalence.—The data for determining the seasonal prevalence of hydrophobia are available only for the metropolis. In Table II. the 147 deaths that have been attributed to hydrophobia in London during the * The prediction in the text has not been fulfilled; the deaths from hydrophobia since the reading of this paper have been— England and Wales. London. In 1886 e - e. 26 g tº tº 9 ,, 1887 * @ º 29 tº e º 2 ,, 1888 • * * 14 s tº º 3 ,, 1889 ... Not published 7 XXI 'A A VDA’OPHOP/A STA 7TWS 7/CS 4I 7 forty-one years 1845-1885 are arranged according to the weeks in which they were registered. The weekly average for each month and quarter is also given. It will be noticed, as might have been expected, that in several weeks (seven) no death has occurred, whereas in two weeks—the third in July and the last in September—no less than nine deaths have been registered. As regards months, the weekly average is lowest in March and February ; rises gradually to a maximum in September; falls in October; rises to a second maximum in November, then falls rapidly to February. Happily, the disease is too rare to allow of any positive conclusions being drawn as to the way and extent in which it is influenced by meteoro- logical conditions. The figures given in the Table show that it is by no means confined to the “dog-days,” though certainly deaths from hydrophobia are more frequent at about that time of the year. TABLE II.-Hydrophobia in London. The weeks in which 147 Deaths were Tegistered during the forty-one years 1845-1885. Weekly Weekly Weekly Weekly Mean. Mean. Mean. Mean. 1st 2 14th | 1 27th || 3 40th 3 2nd | – || Jan. 15th || 3 || April | 28th | – || July || 41st || 3 || Oct. 3rd | – || 2:50 | 16th || 2 || 2:00 || 29th || 9 || 3-75 || 42nd || 4 || 2:75 4th 8 17th 2 30th || 3 43rd | 1 5th 2 18th | 1 31st || 5 44th 7 6th | – | Feb. | 19th | 1 || May | 32nd || 6 || Aug. 45th || 3 ||Nov. 7th | – | 1.25 | 20th || 1 | 1.75 || 33rd || 3 || 3.75 || 46th || 2 || 4:50 8th | 3 21st | 4 34th l 1 47th 6 9th |2 22nd 2. 35th [3 48th | 1 10th –|March 23rd || 2 || June || 36th || 2 | Sept. 49th | 5 || Dec. IIth || 2 || 1:20 || 24th || 7 || 2:80 || 37th || 4 || 4-80 || 50th | 5 ||2-80 12th || – 25th | 1 38th | 6 51st 2 13th 2 26th 2 39th 9 52nd | 1 1st Qr.21 | 1.62 2nd Qr.|29 || 2:23 ||3rd Qr.|54 || 415 ||4th Qr.|43 ||3:31 E E 418 STUDIES IN STATISTICS CHAP. The exciting cause of hydrophobia is undoubtedly inoculation with the poison of rabies, and the manifestations of the symptoms are delayed by a period of incubation, usually ranging from four to twelve weeks. It should, nevertheless, be borne in mind that, conceivably, meteoro- logical conditions may influence hydrophobia in several ways:–e. g. (1) it may directly or indirectly favour the spread of rabies in the lower animals; (2) it may render human beings bitten by rabid animals more or less sus- ceptible to inoculation; (3) it may hasten or retard the development of the characteristic symptoms. Anyway, the fact remains, that although from the small number of facts available it is not possible to draw a regular curve for hydrophobia, the curve, such as it is, shows con- siderable seasonal fluctuations from the mean. It may not be possible to say exactly in what way season affects hydrophobia, but it is pretty evident that in some direct or indirect manner the high temperature of summer has a decided influence in favouring it. This influence, as measured by the curve, is stronger than is observed in the case of scarlatina and enteric fever, but very much less marked than in the case of diarrhoea. Rabies."—The inquiry that naturally suggests itself is : What is definitely known about the seasonal prevalence of rabies in the lower animals : It is, unfortunately, not possible to get any complete or extensive statistics of the prevalence of rabies among dogs in this country. But the figures to be laid before you, scanty and imperfect as they are, possess considerable interest. Through the kindness of Mr. Ernest Batt, Veterinary * Rabies and hydrophobia are of course one and the same disease ; for convenience, however, throughout this paper the disease as it manifests itself in man is termed hydrophobia, the word rabies being reserved for the lower animals. XXI A VDA’OPAIORIA STATISTICS 4I9 Surgeon, and Mr. Victor Horsley, Professor Superintendent, I am able to give the numbers of admissions for rabies to the Brown Institution from January 1880 to the end of July 1890, and the months in which they occurred. TABLE III—Brown Institution.—Admissions for Rabies. otal, 1880. 1881. 1882. 1883.]1884. |1885.[1886, 1887. 1888. 1889. T 10 1890. years. January | . . . . . . . l l I 3 | ... February ... | 1 I l tº tº º 3 | ... March tº º tº l 3 2 | ... l l l l 1 | 11 | ... April tº tº ſº 1 1 | ... 2 | ... 1 ... . ... I 6 & May e g º tº ſº tº I 2 I 2 | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 | ... June & Cº º 1 ... . . . . . . . . 1 ... . ... I 3 | ... July e s s || 0 tº e i e º e I e º e º a º 1 1 ... . ... 2 | ... August 1 ... . ... | 1 | . . . . . . . . . . . 2 H Septemr. ... | 1 || 1 | ... || 2 || 3 | ... 7 | c. 9 October .. g 1 1 || 3 || 2 | ... 1 || 1 || 9 | E. 3 Novemr. ... | 1 || 1 || 1 || 7 || 6 || 1 2 | 19 |º s: Decemr. 2 | ... 3 ... 1 6 Hº Year I 6 || 10 || 9 || 18 17 6 || 1 4 || 5 || 77 These figures show, firstly, a considerable increase of rabies in the two years 1884-5; secondly, that rabies, so far as the small numbers admit of any inference, is least prevalent in the summer months, but is a disease of autumn and spring. Mr. J. C. Colam, the secretary to the Home for Lost and Starving Dogs at Battersea, and his successor, Mr. M. Colam, have been good enough to supply me with the numbers of cases of rabies detected there in each month from January 1883 to the end of July 1890, by Mr. Sewell, the veterinary surgeon to that establishment. These figures (Table IV.) show little difference in the totals for 1883 and 1884, but agree with those of Table III. in showing great prevalence of the disease in 1885, and a remarkable immunity in 1887. There is no clear 42O STUDIES IN STA 7TWSTICS CHAP. indication of influence of season, though fewest cases occurred in August and September. I attach great weight to the returns of rabies from these two institutions, as, though the figures may be small, they have great value, owing to the fact that they are certified by persons well qualified to diagnose the disease, and especially interested in the matter. The number of dogs brought under observation yearly at the Dogs' Home is very considerable, so that we are able to form a fair idea of the proportion of these animals that suffer from rabies. The Brown Institution figures give low mortalities for January, February, June, July, and August ; maxima in March and November. The Dogs' Home figures give low mortalities for February, August, and September ; the maxima being in March and June. It would appear, then, that if influenced by the heat of summer, rabies follows it like scarlatina, rather than accompanies it like diarrhoea. Rabies is least fatal to dogs in the summer, contrary to common report. Police regulations are of paramount importance in the prevention of hydrophobia, therefore it is interesting to observe carefully the results of recent measures. The unexampled prevalence of rabies and hydrophobia in London in 1885, especially in the latter half of the year, led in November to the issue, by the Chief Com- missioner of the Metropolitan Police, of an order under § 18 of the Metropolitan Streets Act, 1867, requiring all dogs while in the streets of the metropolis, and not led by some person, to be muzzled. This order came into force on December 10th, 1885. On September 20th, 1886, it was supplemented by a further order of the Chief Commissioner, under the Dogs' Act, 1871, for the seizure of all dogs found at large and not under the control of any person. Both orders expired on December 20th, 1886. XXI Aſ YDROPHOBIA STATIS 7 JCS 42 I The immediate result of the muzzling was remarkable. A case of rabies was admitted into the Brown Institution on November 22nd, but no other until the end of January 1886, and that was the case of a dog that was believed to have contracted the disease outside the Metropolitan area. At the Dogs' Home at Battersea the case was very different, for ten cases were detected in December 1885 in that institution, being the largest TABLE IV.-Temporary Home for Lost and Starving Dogs, Battersea. Admissions for Rabies. 1883. 1884. 1885. 1886. 1887. 1888. 1889. #. 1890. January ... 2 2 2 5 ! ... 2 13 | ... IFebruary ... ... 1 4 ... tº tº 3 8 I March 2 5 4. 4 ... I 16 I April 4 2 2 ... . . . . 2 10 1 May I I 5 I 6 14 | ... June I 2 6 I 3 I I 15 July 1 | ... 7 1 | . . . . . . . I 10 º August ... ... . ... 5 1 tº º g I 7 H September ... 1 2 | ... 2 | ... 5 | c. 2 October ...| 1 | ... 4 I 1 4 11 | E. § November | ... . ... 9 I I 11 ‘º g December I | | 10 tº $ tº 12 }*He Year ...| 13 | 15 | 60 14 4 5 21 || 132 number that had occurred in any one month. The dis- crepancy is explicable if we remember that the Police Order, while it cleared the streets, filled the Home to overflowing. The total number of dogs brought in was, in 1883, 14,647; in 1884, 14,772; in 1885, 25,578. Mr. Colam attributes the extra 10,000 dogs admitted in the year 1885 entirely to the Police Order issued towards its close. Thus rabies greatly diminished in London during 1886, and in 1887 was almost absent from the metropolis. In the spring of 1889 it increased somewhat rapidly, and several deaths from hydrophobia occurred. In consequence, 422 S7 UDIES I/V STATIS 7/CS CHAP. partly of a representation from the London County Council, a Rabies Order, under the Contagious Diseases (Animals) Acts, applicable to the city of London and the Metropolitan Police District, was issued by the Board of Agriculture." The order came into operation on August 12th, 1889, and has been continued since by subsequent orders. The effect of the Rabies Order was as follows:—One rabid dog was admitted to the Brown Institution in October 1889, and two in November; but from that date until the end of July 1890 (my latest information), no case has been seen there. Again, at the Dogs' Home, although fifteen cases had been detected in the first seven months of the year, there were but one case in August and four in October, and in 1890 single cases in February, March, and April, but none in May, June, or July, the latest month for which I have returns. In Table W. are shown, month by month for the last seven years, the cases of rabies in the two institutions, compared with the deaths from hydrophobia registered in London. The same facts are shown more clearly in the diagram (Plate XXIX.). The unusual number of cases of rabies in the Dogs' Home in November and December 1885 may well have been largely due to the enormous number of dogs swept into the Home by the Police Order, and so brought under the notice of the surgeon (Mr. Sewell). Making allowance for this, it will be seen that the outbreaks of hydrophobia followed those of rabies, after an interval of from three to six months, which is considerably longer than the average period of incubation ; but the agreement 1 The Board issued this order on July 31st, and the London County Council was the statutory authority to enforce it in the county of London. However, the majority of the Council, disappointed that the Local Government Act, 1888, had not given them authority over the police, declared that they had no means of enforcing the order. The Government accordingly appointed Major Tennant to do this. RAB|ES Cases each month 15 10 at Brown Institution 5 & Dogs Home. HYDROPHOBIA Deaths each month in London LONDON RABIES IN DOGS & HYDROPHOBIA IN MAN . 1883 1884 1885 I886 I887 1888 GREATER LONDON. RA B | D DOG S K I LLED BY THE POLICE . Commencing July 1886. 1889) 18985. 10 5 i IO London. Janſºrds Geogº Estab: 15 : XXI A VDAVOA’AſO BIA STA TYS 7TWCS 423 TABLE. W.-Monthly Cases of Rabies at Brown Institution and Home for Zost Dogs, compared with Deaths from Hydrophobia in London. Seven years, 1883–1889. 1883. 1884. 1885. 1886. ISS7. 1888. 1889. Total, 7 years : .: .# .: g .# 3. cº •o º & gº ſº- F- P+ g- R4 g=4 Fº gº 8- P, *> *> *> ke, P. *> HI. ºr. T HI. T |I. |I. EE January...| 3 || I 2 | ... I 2 | I | 6 || 2 | ... . ... I 1 | ... 2 16 || 4 February | 1 | ..., | 1 | ... I 5 ... . ... ... . ... ... . ... ... I 3 || 1 || 10 | 1 March ...| 4 | ... 5 ... 5 || 2 || 5 || 3 1 | ... 1 ... 2 23 5 April 4 | ... 4 || 2 || 2 | I | 1 | I | . . . . ... ... 3 14 || 4 May 3 ... 2 | ... I 7 || 2 | ... . . . . 1 | I ... 6 || 1 || 19 || 4 June 1 ... I 2 | 3 7 || 1 || 1 || 1 || 3 | ... 2 | ... 1 17 | 5 July ...| 1 | I | ... . ... I 8 || 2 || 2 | ... . ... ... . ... ... || 1 || 1 || 12 || 4 August ...| 1 | ... . ... 3 5 || 2 || 1 || 2 | ... . ... . ... I | 1 || 1 8 9 September ... I 3 I 5 || 5 || ... . ... 1 || 2 | ... . ... 3 || 10 | 11 October ...| 2 | ... 3 ... 6 || 4 || 1 ... I 2 5 19 || 4 November 1 || 2 7 15 || 5 || 2 1 | I 2 28 S December | 1 || 3 4 10 2 I ... I ... 16 || 6 Year ... 22 || 8 || 33 || 9 || 77 | 27 | 20 || 9 || 5 || 2 || 9 || 3 || 26 || 7 |192 || 65 is perhaps as close as could have been expected from such small numbers. As to the cause of rabies, or, rather, the influence of meteorological conditions on it, the fact that outbreaks have occurred both in spring and autumn makes it unlikely that either heat or cold has any direct influence on the disease. The winters of 1854-5, 1860-1, 1864-5, 1869-70, 1870-1, 1874-75, 1878-9, 1879-80, 1880-1, were all remarkably cold; in the years following these hard winters there was a notable increase of hydrophobia in two cases only, namely, in 1870, when 32 cases were registered as against 18 in the previous year, and in 1871, when the number rose still further to 56. On the other hand, the summers of 1857, 1859, 1865, 1868, and 1884 were remarkably hot. In 1865 the cases of hydrophobia were 19 as against 12 in the previous year, but they increased to 36 in the year following. In 1868, when summer diarrhoea reached its maximum, there were but 7 deaths from hydrophobia (less than in either of the previous 424. STUDIES IN STA TYSTICS char. four years, or in any subsequent year) against numbers, increasing to 18 in 1869, 32 in 1870, and, 56 in 1871. In 1885 we know that in London there was a great increase of hydrophobia, as well as in the whole country. By the kindness of Dr. A. O. MacKellar, Surgeon-in- Chief of the Metropolitan Police, I have at the last moment been enabled to add to Plate XXIX, the Police returns of dogs found to be rabid in Greater London from July 1886 to the end of July 1890." They indicate a consider- able outbreak in 1889, which led to the issue of the muzzling order of that year. Some very interesting information as to Rabies is to be found in the Reports of the Veterinary Department of the Board of Agriculture, from which I extract the following paragraphs and tables:— “The following Table shows the number of cases of rabies in England during 1887-8-9, the three years it has been included as a disease under the Contagious Diseases (Animals) Acts, also the number of each kind of animal attacked— Kind of Animal. 1887. 1888. 1889. Dogs © e º a G e tº & © 217 160 312 Cattle tº º tº © º º © tº º 11 2 9 Sheep e tº e e - e. & W o 5 7 11 Swine º e tº © e e * - © 3 — 4 Horses tº º º * * e e Gº tº 4 5 4 Deer e Q & tº e e e - tº 257 2 - Total tº º s º, e - 497 176 340 “If the deer entered in the above Table for the years 1887-8, which were attacked with the disease in Richmond Park under very unusual * During this period the number of “mad dogs and dogs suspected of being mad " killed in the streets by the police, within the area of Greater London, amounted to 947. Of these it is stated that 272 were actually rabid, the others not. In Plate XXIX., in addition to these 272 cases, are included 16 dogs that died of rabies. XXI : A YDROPHOBIA STATISTICS 425 circumstances, be excluded, it will be seen that the animals of the farm are but very rarely affected with this disease as compared with the dog. # ºf $ * # . 3's # # “The following Table shows the number of dogs affected in each county, and thus indicates the districts in which the disease has maintained a permanent existence— Cases of Rabies in Dogs in England in 1887-8-9. Counties. 1887. 1888. 1889. Bedford gºsº l ºsmºs Cambridge ... 1 | — tºmº Chester 33 20 6 Derby 6 3 2 Dorset 1 | — tºº Durham 1 | — ſº-º-º-º: Essex 12 5 11 Hants 3 I 7 |Herts 1 || – 10 Hunts 2 — £º Rent 2 3 34 Lancaster 66 32 29 Leicester tº º 3 || – smºmºmº Lincoln (Kesteven) 2 &=º 1 35 (Lindsey) ... $º-º * 2 London tº tº dº 8 30 61 Middlesex ... 5 9 34 Northampton *mº 3 l Notts 6 1 2 Oxford 1 | — 6 Salop 1 | — E-Eº Stafford 23 10 | — Suffolk * *=== 1 Surrey & 3 || 18 26 Sussex (East) 3 7 8 , (West) 2 1 3 Warwick l l I Westmorland 1 — *º-Eº Wilts 1 | — ºmº-º Worcester ... 1 — cºsº. York (W.R.) tº º 27 15 67 Soke of Peterborough 1 — — . . Total * e º tº gº º 217 | 160 || 312 426 STUDIES IN STA TYSTICS CHAP. –3– “In the Report of the Department for 1888, reference was made to the fact that the counties in which rabies was most prevalent could be con- veniently arranged in two groups, the first comprising Lancashire and adjoining counties, and the second London and the counties round it. It appears from the Report of the Registrar-General for 1888 that these are the very centres in which hydrophobia in man has been most prevalent during the past 20 years. # # # # # * $ # “The first effect of this. Order was to clear the streets of London and the suburbs of a large number of useless stray and ownerless dogs. The Order did not at first seem to have much effect in reducing the rabies returns, but taking into consideration the period of incubation in this disease, which often extends over several weeks, it was not to be expected that any material decrease could take place until the Order had been in force about three months. In the months of November and December there was a considerable reduction in the number of cases of rabies in the district to which this Order applied. “Towards the end of the year, as the disease was not eradicated, it was deemed advisable not only to continue the Muzzling Order so far as the Metropolitan Police District was concerned, but to extend the area over which it should operate, so as to include not only the Metropolitan Police District, but also the whole of the counties of Essex, Herts, Kent, Middlesex, and Surrey, and the boroughs within them, from the 1st January, 1890. “When affected with rabies the dog develops an irresistible tendency to wander from his home, and in the course of his travels he snaps and bites at any person or animal that happens to come in his way, and thus the disease is spread. The first and most essential thing to be done in the suppression of rabies in a district, therefore, is the seizure and destruction of all wandering dogs. The necessity for this is apparent from the rabies returns of the past year, which show that of the 312 rabid dogs, 121, or over 38 per cent, of them, were returned as stray dogs, which, if not exactly ownerless, were, when found diseased, so far from their owner's premises that the ownership could not be traced by the police.”” Age and Sea.—As regards age, the figures of the forty years 1849-88 are available. Of the total number of deaths during this period, viz. 1001, nearly four-fifths were of males and rather more than one-fifth females. But of these 1001 deaths, 124 were of children under five * Board of Agriculture—Annual Report of the Veterinary Department, 1889, pp. 78-81. ~/ XXI A YZDROPAZO BIA STA TIS 7./CS - 427 years of age, the males being more than twice as numerous as the females; 323 were aged between 5 and 15 years, the males being three times as numerous as the females; 528 were aged between 15 and 65 years, the male deaths at those ages being nearly five times as numerous as the female; over 65 years there were 26 deaths, the males being four times as numerous as the females. The exact figures are given in detail in Table VI. TABLE VI.-Ages and Sea:es of 1001 Deaths from Hydrophobia in England and Wales during the forty years 1849-88. All Total 5 or laiñ_lf. F. Ages. 0—11—l 2—| 3— 4– wº —||10–15—20—125–35 55–65—175–85–- Males 788 || 4 || 7 | 20 26 29 || 86 |135||107| 65||72 122 90 54 || 36||19| 2 Females | 213 || 1 || 4 || 8 || 8 || 17 || 38 46| 35||11 | 10 | 18|12 || 21 || 17 | 4 || 1 Persons | 1001 || 5 |11 || 28 34 || 46 || 124 (181142|| 76 |82 |140|102| 75 53 || 23 || 3 It will be observed that five deaths occurred under the age of one year (four males and a female); three deaths occurred over the age of 75 (two males and one female); no death occurred of a person aged over 85 years. The next Table (Table VII.) shows the mortality from hydrophobia in relation to the number living at each age. As the calculation of the mean numbers living at the various ages throughout the period would have entailed considerable labour, I have made the Table apply to the thirty-five years 1854-88, and have assumed the population at each age enumerated in 1871 (the middle year of the period) to be the mean in the whole period. This method gives, I think, a sufficiently close approximation,-indeed, with such small figures to start with, it would be pedantic to attempt great accuracy. 428 STUDIES IN STAT/STICS CHAP: TABLE VII-Ages and Sewes of 920 Deaths from Hydrophobia in England and Wales during the thirty-five years 1854-1888, together with the mean annual rates, per million living, at each age. * | 0– 5–110–115- 20–125–185–145–55–65– is—sº- Ages. Males. Deaths ... | 722 | 73|126|| 96; 60 | 66 |1|12| 85 || 51 | 32| 19| 2 | ... Rate per million I ‘9 |I'4 |2°7 |2'2 |I-6 |2'o |2'o |2'o |I'5|I'4|I'5|o’5 ... Females. Deaths ... 198 || 35| 43| 30 | 10 || 9 || 17 | 11 || 21|17| 4 || 1 Rateper million o’5 o'7|o 9 o'7 o'3 |o:2 o'3 |o.2 o'6|o'7|o:3|o:2 ... Persons. - --> Deaths ... 920 108|169||126|| 70 75 |129| 96 || 72|49] 23| 3 .. Rate per million I-2 | I to I-8 |I'5 o'9 |I'I I'I |1'I |1'o. I'ojo'9|o'3 ... It would appear that the greatest relative as well as absolute mortality occurs between the ages of five and ten years, and next after this in the succeeding period of ten to fifteen years. The explanation of this may perhaps be, that of those bitten a greater number of children contract hydrophobia—there may be a greater predisposition at those ages. On the other hand, it should be borne in mind that young children are less completely clothed than adults, and their partially naked limbs are without protection against the saliva of the rabid dog; moreover, they are less able to defend themselves against attack, and to some extent the smallness of their limbs is a danger, the dog getting hold of a small limb more easily than a large one,—though perhaps this point is not so important here as in the case of snake-bites." It is remarkable that at all ages, from one year to seventy-five, many more males than females die from hydrophobia. Under five, boys suffer twice as much as 1 In the discussion which followed the reading of the paper, Dr. Hime suggested that the greater liability of children to hydrophobia might be due to the small bulk of their bodies in relation to the amount of poison inserted by the dog's bite. XXI A VDA’OPHOB/A STA TWST/CS 429 girls; boys from five to fifteen, three times as much as girls; youths from fifteen to twenty, five times as much as maidens of like age ; while from twenty to forty-five, men suffer eight or nine times as much as women ; but after forty-five the disparity is not so great, men of forty- five to sixty-five dying of the disease only twice as often (relatively) as women; at ages over sixty-five the figures are too small for useful comparison. At the extremes of life the conditions as to occupation and habits are similar ; in middle life men are brought much more into contact with animals by their occupations, and on the whole are not so well protected by their clothes —for it must be remembered that all authorities lay great stress on the efficacy of clothes in wiping the saliva off the teeth of a rabid animal. In young children it might have been imagined that girls were less protected than boys, but the latter are of course more venturesome. Dr. Ogle informs me that boys die from violence more than girls, and that the difference, which can only be accounted for by their greater daring and general wildness, shows itself at a very early age. Thus in the case of fractures and contusions the difference shows itself at three years of age, and in the case of burns, scalds, and drowning at one year. * There is, however, one further consideration in reference to the far greater incidence of hydrophobia on males than females. We know that many more persons are bitten by rabid dogs than ever develop hydrophobia. May it not be conjectured that there is actually a greater predisposition in males to develop the disease ? Is the proportion of females bitten, but showing no after ill-effects, greater than that of males? This is an interesting point for future inquiry. It may be well to summarize the facts in a short Table. 43O STUD/ES IN STATIST/CS char. - Analysis of 1001 Deaths from Hydrophobia in England and Wales during the forty years l849-1888. Males. Females. Total. Children under 10 years to tº o ... 221 ... 84 ... 305 Persons aged 10, but under 55 years... 510 ... 107 ... 617 Persons aged 55 years and upwards ... 57 ... 22 ... 79 Total ... ... ... ... 788 ... 213 ... 1001 -* * -º-mº *mºmºmºs At the Dogs' Home the rabid animals are distinguished according to sex, thus: Dogs. Bitches. Total. 1883 G tº e 10 e e ∈ 3 e - º 13 1884 e tº e 12 tº º tº 3 to e e. 15 1885 e tº e 54 tº º º 6 tº º tº 60 Total ... 76 gº tº tº 12 © º e 88 From this it would appear that six times as many dogs suffered from the disease as bitches. Unfortunately, no record is kept of the total number of dogs and bitches admitted, so that it is not possible to calculate their respective death-rates. Mr. Batt is, however, of opinion that dogs are more liable to the disease, and that the difference is not to be accounted for by a smaller number of bitches, nor by these being kept in greater seclusion than dogs. Prof. Coleman stated that when rabies finds its way into a kennel of foxhounds the mad dogs bite the dogs but spare the bitches. Among 392 collected instances, 356 dogs and only 36 bitches were bitten." Hydrophobia is, in this country, in the vast majority of cases, communicated to man by rabid dogs; but of 246 cases that were registered in the five years 1876 to 1880, as many as seven were attributed to the bites of cats. On the continent of Europe hydrophobia is often due to the 1 Sir T. Watson, Principles and Practice of Physic, 5th edit., vol. i. p. 614. XXI Aſ YDROPHOB/A STATIS 7./CS 43 I bites of rabid wolves, a danger that we are happily exempt from in this country. TABLE VIII.-Occupations of 152 persons who died of Hydrophobia in England and Wales in the five years 1876-80. ; i : i i # Labourer ... & © tº Agricultural labourer Porter Collier Blacksmith Carpenter, joiner ... Mason tº º º Cotton operative ... Weaver Tailor, clothier Clerk tº tº º º Publican, beerseller, potman Groom, ostler, coachman ... Livery-stable keeper Farmer, farm-bailiff Gardener ... Gamekeeper Carter Drover Shepherd ... Letter carrier Errand boy Hawker, Costermonger Veterinary surgeon 1 1 1 5 | . . ...,’ ;: 2 l 45 21 152 8 1 5 Occupations.—For the five years 1876-80, the Registrar-General published the occupations of 246 persons —194 males and 52 females—whose deaths were attributed to hydrophobia. But an analysis of the occupations does not give any very interesting results. These 246 persons 432 STUD/ES /W STA TVS 77CS CHAP. are described as having upwards of 100 different occupations. I will only call attention to the cases of the above 152 persons, which have been selected, either owing to the fact of several persons of that occupation having suffered, or to the fact that there is something suggestive about the occupation itself. (Table VIII.) Geographical Distribution.—The deaths from hydro- phobia in England and Wales have been by no means equally distributed. Thus, taking the period of thirty- two years, 1852-83 inclusive, out of 789 deaths there occurred in each registration county the following numbers:— TABLE IX. —Geographical Distribution of 789 Deaths from Hydrophobia in 32 years, 1852-83. Lancaster... " ... 225 | East York ... 10 | Gloucester 4 West York ... 100 | Shropshire ... 9 || Bedford 3 Met, Middlesex 71 || Extra-Met, Mid- Cornwall ... 3 Durham ... ... 34 dlesex ... 9 | Berks 3 Chester . . ... 33 | Leicester and Rut- Suffolk 3 Metrop. Surrey 31 land 9 || Worcester 3 Stafford ... ... 29 | Buckingham 8 | Lincoln 3 IExtra-Met, Kent 18 | North York 8 | Dorset ... 2 South Wales ... 17 | Monmouth 8 || Metrop. Kent ... 2 Nottingham ... 17 | Somerset ... 7 | Norfolk ... ... 2 Northumberland 15 Devon 6 | Northampton ... 1 Extra-Met, Surrey 15 | Hertford ... 5 | Hereford ... 1 Derby ... ... 12 || Wilts 5 || Huntingdon ... 0 Sussex ... ... 11 | Cambridge 5 | Westmorland ... 0 Hants ... 10 | Oxford 4 -* Warwick ... ... 10 | Cumberland 4 Total ... 789 Essex ... ... 10 | North Wales ... 4 *-*. By a rough method of approximation, based on the numbers enumerated in 1871 and 1881, the death-rates in the various counties may be obtained for the twenty years 1864-83. (See Table X.) 53– º º *... . .” - --------- º *" SOUTH WALES - *c.”; º - 4- ** g D. E. V. O. N. "----- * , y * Westmorlandrº * posset º cumberland. * \º chester. *... 'HEREFord * f. - - - - -> - iſ *.*. ... ; - * 64, ºnmouth: **, * - someRSET – ENGLAND & WALES Scale of Eu lo. 5 o ish Miles In 20 ºn 40 so Average death-rate from Anorthumberlant HYDROPHOBIA Twenty years 1864-83. —55 4. fº-f | Durham -** O RTH YORK - - - - - - 53. º cº, ºr ºf O. :- L. *. */ º * - ‘S’. *.. - -- sussex N º 3.6 per million living 2.7-2. l. n_ --------- |- 9 - 1-0 *------------*------ [T] 09-0 l. n__ [T] O º | 1. E. Gr º la . tanfor - - London: Edward Stanford. J. 2 3 ds Geog" Bºb XXI HVDROPHOBZA STATISTICS 433 TABLE X.—Hydrophobia Deaths, and Death-rates per Million in each County of England, and in North and South Wales.—20 years, 1864-1883, comprising 707 deaths. Lancaster ... ... 214 3-6 || Bedford 3 | I to Chester © º ºr ... 30 || 2:7 || Hants 9 o’9 Bucks tº ſº tº tº e a 8 2-6 || Somerset te tº s 7 o'7 West York ... ... 96 || 2:5 | South Wales ... 10 o'6 Durham • * > ... 29 || 2: I | Dorset 2 o'5 Nottingham ... ... | 15 || 2: 1 || Devon 6 o'5 Metrop. Surrey ... 29 || 1:9 || Cornwall 3 o'5 Northumberland ... 14 I-8 | Cumberland ... 2 o'5 East York ... ... | 10 | I-6 || North Wales 4 o'5 Derby º e tº ... 11 | I-6 || Berks 2 o'4 Extra-Metrop. Surrey 12 | 1.5 | Suffolk 3 o'4 Shropshire ... © e g 8 || 1:5 || Metrop. Kent 2 o'4 Stafford tº º º ... 26 || 1 5 I Warwick 5 o'4 Extra-Met. Middlesex 9 || 1:4 || Worcester 2 o'3 Metrop. Middlesex ... 62 | 1.3 || Gloucester 3 || o'2 Leicester and Rutland 8 || 1:3 | Norfolk | 2 | o'2 Hertford ... & © tº 5 | 1.3 || Monmouth 1 o'2 Extra-Met. Kent ... 15 I-2 | Lincoln 1 o' I Sussex ... ... 10 || 1:2 | Northampton Oxford . ... 4} e & 4 || 1 2 || Huntingdon ... • | \ . - North York ... 7 || 1:2 | Hereford ... e g tº 0 o'o Cambridge 4 | I to Westmorland Wilts 5 | I to Essex 9 | I to England and Wales... 707 | 1.5 N.B—or the 214 deaths in Lancaster, some occurred in every one of the years 1864-1883, with the single exception of 1868. But there was no death in that county in 1854, 1855, 1856, nor 1858-1862, inclusive. The preference shown for Lancashire is seen to be very remarkable ; Chester, Buckingham, and the West Riding of York coming next, but a long way behind. At the other extremity come the thinly-populated counties of North- ampton, Huntingdon, Hereford, and Westmorland, in which an aggregate mean population of close upon half a million (498,223) kept quite free from hydrophobia for the twenty years under consideration." * Compare Plate V., p. 29, showing the density of population in the various counties of England and Wales. - - .* F F 434 STUDIES IN STATISTICS cHAP. It will be said that the populations of many of the counties are too small to yield death-rates of any value from such a rare disease. There is less force in this objection than might be supposed. When the counties are coloured in a map with intensities proportional to the death-rates given in the Table, it will be seen that, with one or two exceptions, the patches of colour are grouped in a very definite manner (Plate XXX.). Thus the maximum mortality of Lancashire forms part of a patch of dark colour, in- cluding Cheshire, the West Riding, and Nottingham, while the home counties, with Cambridge, Oxford, and Bucking- ham, form another group of somewhat high mortality. The south-western counties and Wales form pale areas, connected, through Hereford, Gloucester, Warwick, North- ampton, and Huntingdon, with Lincoln, Norfolk, and Suffolk. There is another pale area in the north ; but Durham suffers from an exceptional mortality. The slight exceptions of Wilts and Buckingham are of little import- ance, since the population of each of these counties is small, being under a quarter of a million, and the rates are based on five and eight deaths respectively. The mortality from hydrophobia appears to be closely related to the density of the population, with the striking exception that London is comparatively exempt. Can this be explained by the efficacy of police regulations in the metropolis ? In Table XI. is shown the number of deaths from hydrophobia in each of the registration divisions of England and Wales for the thirty-four years 1850-83. These areas are not liable to the charge of being too small in population, since the smallest of them has more than One million of inhabitants. An examination of this Table would of itself be sufficient to prove, if such proof were needed, that the disease was a communicable one. : § : 6 : i : i gI I : s ź à g § 0% 0I ; 9% II 6/, - II ZI 9 I g : gi l : |* ºmºs*f º g ; ; -**I ; ă ; | £88I-098I '84096 wºo/*ſū4'ſ ſo ſovo wº Sopoſſ pup puppbuſy ſo suo-sºakſ u00/0.118762JJ alſ, up pºqoºydo.ſpſ?pſ wo.'ſ sºpæCT-IX ITGVL | : . ſº tº---I* : : 8 I i*-*9Itºº; : * i |*º-º-II*s; º *-*g3*º <-º-º-º:8T--1.tº e g i : s I E-sºº --- - ºmº - * * * * e-ºº-ºº:%e & © **: •ºmº, *º-I “ poqooyº SegulloC) “poloape SUIoISIAICI SITVM (INV qNVIon I ‘’’ sale M pub UnnouTuoVI—'IX ulouq to N-ºx 9IIusXIIoA–"XI “ U.10480M-II].ION – IIIA ‘’’ publp;IN U1.ION.—‘IIA “ puelpſ W 489 M-‘IA ‘’’ U.10480 MW-uqnoS-‘A & ſº º “ U.104sgº-'AI ‘’’ pubſpp. IN UqnoS—'III ''' (IIoqsa I-uqmos—'II & “ tropuorſ—"I *-* * É # ă É § É § à § É g 3. 3 g # # # É “SUIOps IAICI 436 STUDIES ZW STA 7TWS TVCS CHAP. Thus it is seen that for the first fifteen years not a death occurred in the south-western division ; then a solitary death occurred (in Devon); after this there was another interval of ten years, followed by a period of six years during which the annual deaths varied from one to nine. Take as a contrast the north-western division; for the first four years there were annually from two to five deaths; then a blank year, followed by one death ; another blank, followed by two deaths; then complete absence of the disease for five years, after which the disease, with the exception of 1868, was fatal every year, killing in some years as few as two persons, but more usually 10, 12, up to 17, 19, and even 22 in the year. The comparative immunity for a long series of years of isolated counties like Cornwall, suggests that more strenuous police measures against rabies, if carried out uniformly throughout the country, and for a sufficient length of time, would be successful in stamping out the disease. Summary.—Briefly, the points to which I would call your attention are these :— 1. Hydrophobia is stated to have killed 944 persons in England and Wales in the thirty-nine years 1847– 1885. 2. During the latter half of this time it has been about five times as fatal, relatively to the numbers living, as it was during the first half. 3. Nearly half the above number of deaths occurred during the eight years ending with 1878. 4. As a rule, London has not suffered so much as other parts of the kingdom. 5, Hydrophobia in man is most fatal towards the end of summer and throughout the autumn. XXI H. VDA’OAAHOA/A STA 7TWST/CS 437 6. So far as has been ascertained, rabies in dogs is most fatal in late autumn and in the spring, and least fatal in the summer. 7. Directly or indirectly, hydrophobia appears to be more influenced by season than scarlatina or enteric fever, but much less so than diarrhoea. But neither exceptionally hot summers nor cold winters appear to influence the disease. 8. The police order which came into force in December 1885 checked the spread of rabies, but brought a large number of cases into the Dogs' Home. 9. Hydrophobia is relatively most fatal between the ages of five and fifteen. 10. At all ages, except the extremes of life, very many more males die than females. The same is believed to be the case with rabies among the lower animals. 11. Occupation seems to have comparatively little influence. 12. The geographical distribution of hydrophobia is peculiar. It is most prevalent in Lancashire; Cheshire and the West Riding of Yorkshire coming next. It is least prevalent in the Lake district, Wales, the south- western counties, and the eastern counties, and in a strip of country stretching from Hereford to Huntingdon. 438 STUDIES IN STAT/STICS CHAP. CHAPTER XXII. concLUSION. IN the preceding pages my constant endeavour has been to lay before the reader, as clearly as possible, matters which in their very nature are prone to be both difficult and dull; but in so doing there has been an almost inevitable tendency to be either too prolix and detailed, or unduly dogmatic. The general reader will therefore complain of unnecessary detail, while the severe statistician will say that I have thrown into the form of diagrams facts that should rather have been displayed in lengthy tables. To both forms of error I plead guilty. - The objects that I had in view were mainly two : Firstly, to urge the economist and the politician to keep always in view the scarcely perceptible changes due to the constant growth of population—changes which they can indeed ill afford to neglect; secondly, to indicate to medical writers the vast mine of material existent in the voluminous returns of the Registrar-General—material of which the great majority of the medical profession seem to be still ignorant, although it is plainly desirable that every hypothesis put forward by searchers after the causes of disease should be tried by the touchstone of this mass of crystallized experience. The cardinal fact for the statesman and political economist is the marvellous growth of population that is xxii, - COAWCA USAOAV 439 taking place in the present century; if I have succeeded in any respect in making this more striking than it before appeared, I shall not have wasted my labour. Subordinate to the main fact is the local growth of population. At home this is gradually changing us from a country to a town people, and so greatly influencing our social, political, and sanitary conditions. Abroad, far beyond the seas, the growth of large populations in remote places, which were but the other day mere wildernesses, is producing unnoticed, though before our very eyes, new nations—nations which, while supplanting the picturesque, if filthy, customs of the Savage, by the healthy but hopelessly unpicturesque civilization of Europe, are gradually but surely changing the centre of gravity of the political world. The innate conservatism of statesmen tends to make them think of little or no account movements that take place outside the family circle of European diplomacy. While I have, naturally enough, treated in the fullest detail the growth of population near home, and the migrations of our own people most familiar to us, I have also called attention to other, less familiar, migrations, such as that from the shores of the Mediterranean to the Pampas of the River Plate and the mines and forests of Brazil, and that from the rugged coasts of the Scandinavian peninsula to the vast prairies of the Western States of America. The racial characters of the new nations that, as a result of these movements, are springing into such vigorous life in the far West and South, I have treated of in considerable detail, since the subject appears to me to be one pregnant with interest to the historian and philolo- gist, though it has as yet been but little studied. One great omission will probably have been noticed, 440 STUDIES IN STA 7/STICS - CHAP. viz. that I have almost ignored Russia, the most populous of all the European nations. I have done so designedly, and for two reasons. Though Peter the Great, among his many reforms, did not neglect the numbering of his people, Russian statistics have of late years been much behind the age and scarcely comparable with those of other European countries. Again, Russia seems to me to be essentially an Asiatic Power, and for various reasons I have thought it better to let Asia alone; my primary concern was with Britons and with the new nations of the earth that have been founded, or are in the process of foundation, by Britons; as yet Russia has had but a trifling influence upon any of these. - I have called attention to the indisputable fact that the alleged “depopulation of the rural districts,” and the move- ment of the people into towns, is not a phenomenon peculiar to this country, and is not to be explained as the result of a system of land tenure, but depends upon causes of much wider reach, embracing alike countries under the rule of military autocracies, and democratic republics—causes which operate alike on these islands and on the continent; in the Old World and the New ; in the north and in the south ; in the east and in the west. None of the data of statistics are mathematically exact; thus it is well known that even a census, how- ever skilfully planned, and however carefully carried out, fails to ascertain the exact number of the population of . a country, but the discrepancy, even if it amount to thousands, is very small in proportion to the numbers dealt with, and may therefore be neglected in practice. Of course such numbers as those in the Registrar- General's Reports, indicating the alleged causes of death, XXII CONCLUSION 44 I are subject to proportionally far greater and more serious errors. There are, however, two considerations which tend to minimize the uncertainties that might be expected to arise from these errors and uncertainties. The first is the familiar principle of statistics, that large numbers are; other things being equal, more to be trusted than small. The facts for a village may be most fallacious; for a large town (since the perverseness or ignorance of an individual therein can produce but a small result in the whole) the facts are more valuable than for the village; a fortiori the returns for the whole country will be more trustworthy than those for any single town. Speaking generally, in a large collection of figures of any kind, there will be numerous errors, but these are not likely to be all in the same direction ; in many cases they will tend to balance each other more or less, and the larger the aggregate the more likely is this to be the case. The second consideration is this: the facts for one year may with advantage be compared with similar facts, similarly collected, relating to the years that precede and follow. It will be recollected that in the great majority of cases I have dealt with large figures and have compared like with like. The results have, to my mind, shown that the statistics of the alleged causes of death are more nearly correct than might have been supposed. Among the points to which I would wish to revert are the altered fatality of certain causes of death at certain ages; the great saving of life among children; the slightly increased mortality at the later ages; the increase under the heads of cancer, heart disease, bronchitis, and other diseases of the lungs; the diminution of fever, scarlet fever, and of phthisis or consumption. In reference to the last point, the decrease in the number of deaths attributed to consumption,--it is, I 442 STUDIES IN STATISTICS think, a point of importance that an examination of the figures proves that the increase under the head of bron- chitis is not due to a mere transference from phthisis, but that the one disease has really increased in severity, or in prevalence, while the other has diminished ; this is proved by the fact that the ages at death differ materially in the two diseases. - The indications that rheumatic fever tends to be more prevalent when erysipelas is more prevalent, and vice versä, are very interesting, and may possibly lead to results of value. - The facts brought to light as to the geographical distribution of diarrhºea, diphtheria, and hydrophobia are curious, if difficult to explain. The chapter on the census may seem somewhat out of date, but I do not yet quite despair of moving the stony heart of the Treasury. My hope throughout has been that increased know- ledge of facts, alike in matters political and matters medical, may tend to make legislative and administrative efforts more reasonable, and less empirical. Sure progress is more likely to be attained by the diligent and patient study of details than by the more showy and more attractive method of d priori speculation, which is but too apt to lead to rash and possibly disastrous experiments. AWO7E - 443 NOTE ON AN EPIDEMIC OF INFECTIOUS PNEUMONIA IN THE EIGHTEENTH CENTURY. IN the parish registers of George Ham, in North Devon, the following remarkable note seems to record a severe epidemic of pneumonia in the year 1746-7. “ſtar All these marked * died of a violent Pleurotic Fever or Peripneumene (sic), most of them in four or five days after the first seizure. - “Memord. JOHN W.” It is not evident who “John W.” was, but the note appears to be contemporaneous with the entries, if not actually in the same handwriting. The twenty-two names in the register marked with the * are given below. West Down is an adjoining parish. My attention was called to the passage by the late Rector, the Rev. W. E. Cox (now Rector of Lynton); the present Rector, the Rev. W. H. Hole, has been good enough to check my transcript with the original. DEATHS. 1746. *Thomas Bennet ... • . . " ... March 20. * Margaret Bennet - - - - e. e. 5 3 3 2 * John Davies * tº gº * - - ... March 22. * Agnes Gorden e a e * - - - - - 33 } % * David Bennet e e ge * ~ * ... March 24. * Mary Woollin * * * e - - * * * 35 33 * Joan Dyer tº º * * * - - - 33 7 5 *Toby Dyer tº 9 º' tº ſº o ... March 25. * Mary Odann • * * * e tº e - - e. 3 9 9 3 1747. * Francis Adams ... - - - ... March 26. * Mary Nutt • * * - - e. 2 3 3 y * Zacharias Dyer ... - - - ... March 27. * Susanna Hooper ... tº º º ... March 31. • * John Thomas, of West Dow ... April 5. * Elizabeth Thomas, of West Down ... April 6. * Eleanor Knill tº e tº tº º 0 ... April 8. * Morrice Michael ... * - - ... April 9. * William Passmore ... e - © ... May 7. * John Howard ... - - ... May 8. * John Skinner ... e - - ... May 24. * Elizabeth Austen ... * - - ... May 27. * Anne Lock - ºr ºf s & © ... June 5. ERRATA. page 11, second line from bottom, for reproducive read reproductive. , 220, bottom line, read Mr. Charles Booth and Prof. Marshall. ANZDA.Y 445 IND EX. ABBOT, Mr., Census Bill of 1800, 196 * Aborigines of Australia (Table), 145- 147; of New Zealand (Table), 146- 147; of Tasmania, 146; in United States (Table), 66-68 Acts dealing with Public Health, 19, 347, 409 Age as a factor in death-rates, 6, 245 Age-constitution of population, a factor in birth- and death-rates, 9-11, 246, 251 Alberta. tricts Amalgamation of races (Tables), 86- 89, 92-95, 98-101 American cities, mortality statistics of (Table), 59; rapid growth of (Table), 159 Approximation to unknown terms of a series, methods of 242, 243 Argentine Confederation, census of (Table), 132; development and prospects of 132; migration to (Table), 51, 135, 136; nationalities in (Table), 132 Arithmometer, saving of labour by, 5, 227, 311 Arsenical poisoning, a cause of winter diarrhoea, 281 Assiniboia. See Canada, provisional districts Asthma, decreased mortality from (Table), 374 Auckland, population of 157 Australasia, birth-places of people (Table), 147; growth of popula- tion (Tables), 141-145; Irish in, 146; race-constitution (Tables), * 145-150 Australia, aborigines, 145 Austro-Hungarians, emigration of (Table), 48, 106–109 See Canada, provisional dis- BALFour, Dr., on Census of house accommodation, 218 Baltic countries. See Scandinavia Barnes, Dr. Edgar G., on geographical distribution of diphtheria and scarlatina, 355 Barrow-in-Furness, rapid growth of (Table), 160, 162 Basutoland, 138 Bath, declining population of, 163 Batt, Mr. Ernest, statistics of rabies (Table), 418, 419, 430 Battersea, rapid growth of (Table), 161 Bechuanaland, 138 Belgium, migration from, 49, 106, 107, 110, 136 Birth-places, unsatisfactory tabulation of 222,224; value of Tables of,43 Birth-rate, curve of (Plate), 12; de- finition of, 5; dependent on age- constitution of population, 11, 251 ; effect of, on death-ra!e, 11 ; effect of marriage-rate on, 13-15, 252; effect of migration on, 252; ille- gitimate, 13; recent fall in, 14; variations of, since 1838, 12-14 Birth-rates, in European countries, variations of, 14 Birth-register, defective at first, 12 Births, in England and Wales, 12; illegitimate, 14; imperfect regis- tration of, 42 ; proportion of males to females, 249; registration of, made compulsory, 12; registration of, now fairly complete, 13 Bloxam, Mr., modification of curves in graphic method, 321,322 Board of Agriculture, rabies order by, 422; report on rabies (Tables), 424-426 Booth, Mr. Charles, on census of em- ployment, 207, 220, 221 446 ANDEX Boxall, Dr., on fever in child-bed, 328 Brain diseases, increased mortality from (Tables), 230, 239, 241, 254- 264; in relation with convulsions, 239; sex and age mortality from, (Tables), 239,254-264 Brazil, census of , (Table), 128, 129; development of 128; migration to (Table), 48, 51, 130; race-constitu- tion of (Table), 129, 130 Brisbane, growth of population, 157 British Empire, abstract of census of, desirable, 222-225 British Islands, inter-migration be- tween, 38-41, 43 British in United States (Tables), 95- 101 Bronchitis, and associated diseases, 312; causes of death studied in -connection with, 371; geographi- cal distribution of (Table), 380- 382; increased mortality from (Tables), 374,375,441,442; weekly fluctuations of mortality from (Plates), 376-378 ; yearly fluctua- tions of mortality from (Plates), 371, 372, 376 Brown Institution, rabid Dogs at (Table), 419–423 Buchan and Mitchell, Messrs., analysis of London weekly mortality, 277, 278, 283, 286, 319-321, 369, 373, 375 ; graphic method, 285, 311; influence of weather on mortality, 277, 278, 280, 281, 283, 286; sea- sonal prevalence of continued fevers (Table), 398, 401 Buchanan, Dr., causation of diarrhoea, 283; method of comparing certain curves, 282, 322 Buenos Aires, city, b’rth-places (Tables), 134; education in (Table), 135; migration to (Table), 136; nationalities of foreigners (Tables), 134, 135; population of (Table), 133, 134; rapid increase of 159; sex-proportions in (Table), 134 Buenos Aires, province, census of (Table), 133; nationalities in (Table), 133 Burgess, Mr. Arthur, cartoon showing growth of Greater London, 175,177 CANADA, birth-places of population (Table), 117,118; censuses of, 113, 114, 193, 198; climate of, 126; Dutch in, 78; French in, 74, 75, 119–125; future government of, 124-126; geographical structure of, 126, 127; internal navigation } of, 127; migration from United Kingdom to, 114, 115; national and religious animosities in, 122, 123; nationalities of immigrants to, 121; negroes in (Plate), 150; origins of the people (Table), 119- 121; population, rapid increase of, 114; provisional districts, increase of population, 116 ; provisional districts, race - constitution of people, 116 ; railway communi- cation in, 127; Scandinavians in (Table), 80 ; Scotch in, 119, 120, 122; and United States, mixture of races compared, 117, 118, 125 Canadians, character and prospects of 125-127; in United States (Table), 74-78, 101, 102 Cancer, age and sex-mortality from (Tables), 239, 254-264; hereditary tendency to, 240; increased mor- tality from (Tables), 230, 239-241, 248, 249, 254-264, 267, 268, 441 Cape Colony, census of (Table), 137; dependencies of (Table), 138; migration to (Tables), 138-140; neglect of statistics in, 137; race- constitution (Tables), 137, 138 Case-mortality in Metropolitan Asylum Hospitals (Table), 410, 411 Causes of death, according to sex and age, 1861-1870 and 1876-1880 (Tables), 254-264; changes in age and sex-mortality summarized, 241, 244, 252,253; classification of 228, 229; difficulties from changes in classification, 232; improved cer- tification of, 228, 229, 231, 235, 252; rise or fall in (Tables), 229, 230, 254-264, 267 Census, Bill of 1753, opposition to in House of Commons, 194, 195; Bill of 1753 thrown out by House of Lords, 195; Bill of 1800 passed without opposition, 195, 196; of British Empire, abstract of, desir- able, 222-225; cost of, in United Ringdom (Table), 205-207; cost of, in United States, 207, 208; importance of, for all statistical measurements, 199-205; influence of Statistical Society on arrange- ments for, 197; intervals in various countries, 198, 199; operations in ancient times, 191-193; opposition to, obsolete, 197; quinquennial, necessity for, 199-205, 223; recom- mendations of Statistical Society for, 208-213, 222; results, tabula- tion of, 214-223; scope of, 208- AVADAEX 447 214, 222-224; of United States, reason for elaboration of 208 Censuses, of Canada, 113, 114, 193, 198; taken in 17th and 18th centuries, 193, 194; of United Kingdom, machinery for taking, 196, 197 Chamberlin, Mr. J. E., on foreign elements in population, 112 Chapels, additional, required before 1901, 28, 29 Charity Organization Society, 179 China, small migration of women from, 69, 73, 108, 109 Chinese, migration of, to Queensland, 144; in United States, 68, 69 Cholera, epidemic of, a cause of sani- tary legislation, 17, 18; epidemics, effect of on diarrhoea mortality (Plate), 285; epidemics of, excep- tional, 16; simple or English, a form of summer diarrhoea, 281 Churches, additional, required before 1901, 28, 29 Circulatory organs, diseases of. See Heart Diseases Cities, tendency to aggregation in, 156. See also Towns Civil registration, commencement of, 12 Classification of diseases, according to effects of weather, 369,370; danger of carrying too far, 323; in Regis- trar-General's Reports, changes in, 324 Colam, Mr. J. C., statistics of rabies (Table), 419–421; Mr. M., statistics of rabies (Table), 419–421 Coleman, Prof., sex-incidence of rabies, 430 Colonies, British and Foreign (Table), 53; British, increase of population in proportion to mother country (Table), 150, 151; countries pos- sessing, 52, 53 Consanguineous marriages, and idiocy, deaf-mutism, &c., 213, 214; as a subject for census inquiry, 213,214 Continued fevers. See Fevers, Con- tinued Convulsions in relation with brain dis- eases, 239 Cornwall, diminution of population in, Counties, changes of population in (Table and Plate), 35-37 Country districts, migration from, to towns, 24, 25, 164 Courtney, Mr. Leonard, on increase of foreigners in Ireland, 41, 42 Cox, Rev. W. E., epidemic of pneu- monia in 1746/7, 443. Crouch, Mr., migration of Bohemians to United States, 106 Croup in relation with diphtheria, 316 Croup. See Diphtheria and allied diseases Curve, technical use of term, 7 Cynanche Maligna. See Diphtheria and allied diseases DANEs in Utah (Table), 104 Davidson, Dr. J. T. R., on a source of diphtheria, 355 De Beaucaire, M. Le Vicomte, on migration into towns, 164 Death-rate, curve of (Plate), 12; de- finition of 5; effect of birth-rate on, 11 ; effect of changes in, on increase of population, 251, 252; effect of epidemics on, 15-17, 32; effects of season, famine, war, and pestilence on, 31; influence of age on, 6; influence of sex on, 6; low, in recent years, 226, 264,265; as a measure of health, 5; variations of, 15 Death-rates, according to sex and age, 1876-1880 and 1881-1885 com- pared (Table), 265; according to sex and age, 1881-1885 and 1886- 1888 compared (Table), 265, 266; according to sex and age, changes in 50 years (Table), 268, 269; cor- rection of, for sex and age, 10, 246; effects of weather on, 266, 322; recorded and corrected, 9; in town and country compared, 9-11, 245, 246; at various ages (Table and Plate), 6, 7 Deaths, in England and Wales, 12; from various causes, recent rise or fall in (Tables), 229, 230, 254- 264, 267. Debt, local, recent increase of 30 Denmark, tabulation of occupations in, 221. See also Scandinavia Depopulation, alleged, of rural districts in England, 36; of rural districts in France, 164 Developmental diseases, decrease in gºality from (Table), 230, 234, 235 Diagnosis, importance of accuracy in, 323; increasing accuracy of 235; statistical errors caused by mistakes in, 272 Diarrhoea, age and sex mortality from (Table and Plate), 283-287, 3 8, 309; and associated diseases (Plate), 280, 281, 283, 312; available sta- tistics of,271, 273; and density of 448 AAWDEX population (Table), 353-355; epi- demics of, 16, 17; geographical distribution of (Table), 273-277, 279, 280, 290-308, 442; inquiry into causation of, 277, 288, 289; in London in relation with tempera- ture of Thames (Plate), 282 ; inor- tality, compared with birth-rates (Table), 298, 299; mortality, method of comparing different towns, 293; and sanitary reform, 300; predisposing causes of, 271, 276, 277; probably a specific cause of, 271 ; seasonal prevalence, 286, 287 ; and weather conditions (Plate),278,279,281-283,289, 290, 295-298, 300; weekly fluctuations of, in London (Plate), 277-279, 295, 296; whether a “zymotic” or a “climatic” disease, 20; winter, distribution of, 279, 280; winter, sometimes caused by arsenical poisoning, 281; yearly fluctuations of (Plate), 281 Diarrhoea, summer, causation of, opinions of several medical offi- cers, 304-308; a communicable zymotic disease, 283; connected with putrefaction, 288, 290, 295, 297, 309; death-rates from, in several towns (Diagram), 273-276; a distinct disease, 280, 283, 287, 289; increasing mortality from, in certain towns (Table), 306, 307; mortality, 1870-1879 and 1880– 1887, in seventy towns, compared (Table), 300-303; a town disease, 274,276,277,287; untenable theo- ries as to causation of 288 Diarrhoeal diseases, variations in mor- tality from, 237 Dilke, Sir Charles W., Problems of Greater Britain, 138 Diphtheria, admissions to Metropolitan Asylum Hospitals, 410; and allied diseases, fluctuations in mortality from, 315, 316; and density of population (Tables), 339-355, 358, 360-367; districts with highest and lowest mortality, 350, 351; first distinguished in Registrar General's returns in 1855, 314; first distinguished in Registrar- General's returns for London in 1859, 320; fluctuations in mor- tality from, 236, 237, 267; geo- graphical distribution of (Tables), 338-367, 442; increasing preval- ence in towns difficult to explain, 346; male and female mortality from, compared (Tables), 335-337, 356, 357; mortality from, compared with general death-rates in certain districts, 351; mortality from, in dense, medium, and sparse districts (Tables), 343-355, 361-367; mor- tality from, and general death-rate, in Registration counties and divi- sions (Tables and Plate), 338-342, 358, 360; mortality from, greatest in villages and small towns, 349; as a “new disease,” 315; possible sources of, 352,353, 355; recent in- crease of mortality from (Table), 326, 334; a rural disease, 274; weekly variations of, in London (Plate), 319, 320 - Diseases, classification of according to effects of weather, 369, 370; con- ditions for forecasting prevalence of, 243, 244; possibly modified by the individual attacked, 323, 324; sex and age incidence of (Tables), 248, 249, 254-264 - Divorced persons, probably imperfect returns of in census, 210 Dixey, Mr. F. A., diagram showing varying temperature of Thames,282 Dogs’ Home, Battersea (Tables), 419- 423 Dropsy, decreased mortality from, probably only apparent, 236, 267; in relation with heart diseases, 238 Ducie, Sir R., estimate of population of London in 1631, 170 Duncan, Dr. Matthews, on puerperal fever and erysipelas, 327–330 Dunn, Dr. H. P., on increase of cancer, 240 - - Duration of life, data as yet insufficient to forecast, 247, 248; Mr. Noel A. Humphreys on, 226, 242; probable future changes in, 245, 253 Durham, growth of population, 28 Dutch, in Canada, 78; in United States, 78 - EDUCATION, as a inquiry, 213 Elizabeth, Queen, proclamation to re- strict growth of London, 170, 176, 180 - Emigrants, sex-proportions (Tables), 108, 109, 148, 149 Emigration, centres of, 44; dangers of aiding, 180, 181; effect of on birth-rate, 252; effect of on sex- constitution of population, 249; recent increase of, 25 England, daily increase of population, subject for census among IVDEX 449 *-------- 23–25; growth of large towns in (Table), 160 . Enteric fever, mortality from,in London 1869-84 (Table), 396, 397, 410; seasonal prevalence of (Tables and Plate), 399-405, 407,411, 412 “Epidemic,” a vague term, 327, 328 Epidemics, death-rates from (Plate), - 18; effect of, on general death-rate, 15-17; permanent injury from, to || survivors, 17; since 1838 (Table), 16 Erysipelas, geographical distribution of (Table and Plate), 330, 331; re- cent fluctuations in mortality from (Table), 325, 332; in relation with puerperal fever (Table and Plate), 312, 316-319, 321, 327-331; in re- lation with rheumatic fever (Table and Plate), 317, 329-331, 442 Europe, summary of migration from, 152-154; Western, calculated popu- lations at various periods (Table), 183, 184; Western, recent growth of population (Tables), 182, 183; wheat exporting and importing countries of (Table), 184, 185 European countries, migration from, compared (Table), 49 . FARR, Dr., classification of diarrhoea, 20; formula for calculating case- mortality, 411; on summer diar- rhoea, 282, 283 Females, excess of (Tables), 8, 9, 249, 250, 253 Fever, decrease in mortality from (Tables), 230, 235, 236, 241, 254- 264, 267, 268. See also Enteric fever, Simple continued fever, and Typhus Fevers, continued, mortality from, in London 1837-84 (Tables), 395, 396; when first separately distinguished and classified, 394 Food supply, effect of, on growth of population, 22 Forster, Mr., conscience clause in Irish Census Act, 212 France, depopulation of rural districts in, 164; emigration from, to South America, 75; foreign - born in (Tables), 38, 42 ; migration from, to Argentine Republic, 136; migra- tion to, 38; nationalities of for- eigners in, 165; restriction of native population, 38; small emigration from, 50, 51 French in Canada (Table), 74, 75, 123-125; in United States, 74–78 GERHARD, on classification of continued fevers, 394 - German colonization, 53 Germans in New York City (Tables), 88, 92; in United States (Tables), 82-89, 91 Germany, emigration from (Tables), 48, 60, 106–109 - Giffen, Dr., on emigration to Austral- asia, 47; on net emigration, 46; on prospects of food supply, 188, 189 Graphic method, explained, 7; value of, in statistical inquiries, 310-312 Greater London, 169; growth of (Table), 174 - Gresswell, Dr. Astley, rainfall and scarlet fever, 326, 327. . Greville, Mr. George, in support of Census Bill of 1753, 195 Griffin, Mr. Martin J., on religious census in Canada, 212 Grimshaw, Dr., on census of religious profession, 212 Griqualand, East, estimated population of (Table), 138; West, estimated population of (Table), 138 HALIFAx, low diarrhoea mortality in (Diagram and Tables), 275, 276, 290, 292, 299, 301-303 Harvests in England (Plate), 15 Haviland, Dr., on relation of dropsy to heart disease, 238 Hawaii, migration from Portugal to, 51 Hayden, Professor, estimate of un- cultivated arable land in United States, 188 Health, Acts dealing with, 19, 347, 409; measured by death-rate, 5 Heart diseases, increased mortality from (Tables), 230, 238, 239, 241, 254-264, 267,441; in relation with dropsy,238; sex- and age-mortality from, 238 . Hill, Miss Octavia, and industrial dwellings, 179 - Hime, Dr., liability of children to hydrophobia, 428 Hole, Rev. W. H., epidemic of monia in 1746/7, 443 Holland, migration from, 48 Horsley, Mr. Victor, statistics of rabies (Table), 418, 419 House accommodation, census inquiry into, 209, 210, 223 Hudson's Bay Company, 157 Hull, high diarrhoea mortality in (Table), 290, 300-303 Humphreys, Mr. Noel A., on alleged increase of lunacy, 247; method G G pneu- 450 JAVI)A.Y of estimating inter-migration, 39- 41; on recent decline in death- rate, 226 Hungary. . See Austro-Hungarians Hydrophobia, in England and Wales (Tables), 414-416,435; in London (Table), 414-416; communicated by other animals than dogs, 430, 431 ; comparative immunity of London from, 434,437; and density of population (Plates), 434; effect of police regulations in diminish- ing, 420-423; geographical distri- bution of (Tables and Plate), 432- 437; increase of, in recent years, 436; influence of weather on, 418, 423, 424; mortality in London in 1885 unprecedented, 413; occu- pations of persons attacked by (Table), 431,432, 437; predisposi- tion to develop the disease, 429; and rabies (Table and Plate), 418, 422,423; seasonal prevalence of, in London (Table), 416,417,437; sex- and age-mortality from (Tables) 426-430, 437 ILLEGITIMATE births, 14; rate practi- cally constant 1845-1865, 13; recent fall in, 13 Immigration, centres of 54; as a factor in growth of population, 55, 56 Imperial Federation (Table), 151, 152 Indians in United States (Table), 66-68 Industrial dwellings, 179 Infectious Diseases (Notification) Act, 347, 409 Institutions, additional, required be- fore 1901, 29 Intemperance, increase of kidney diseases due to, 241 Inter-marriage in United States, of British (Table), 98-101; of Ger- mans (Tables), 86-89; of Irish, (Tables), 92-95 Inter-migration, 34, 37-43 Intra-migration, 34-37 Ireland, first census of 196; reasons for decrease of population, 45, 46; and Scotland, natives of, in dif- ferent countries (Table), 148 Irish in Australasia, 146; emigration of, 45-47; “land hunger,” 45, 91 ; in New York, 92; in United States (Tables), 89-95 Italy, migration from, 50, 51, 106-109, 136 JENNER, Dr., on classification of con- tinued fevers, 394 Johnston, Dr. W., on summer diarrhoea, 283, 288 KIDNEY diseases, increased mortality from (Tables), 230, 239, 241, 243, 248, 249, 254-264, 267; sex- and age-mortality from (Tables), 239, 254-264 Koch, Dr., discovery of tubercle ba- cillus, 368 Körösi, M., 166; on census-taking, 190; on tabulation of census re- sults, 214-218 LA PLATA. See Argentine Confedera- tion Lancashire, bad sanitary reputation of 293; hydrophobia mortality in (Tables and Plate), 432-434, 437; rapid increase of population, 27 Latin countries, migration from, 50, 51 Leeds, high diarrhoea mortality in (Table and Diagram), 290, 300-302 Leicester, high diarrhoea mortality in (Table and Diagram), 274,275,290- 292, 299-303; summer diarrhoea in, 283 Little, Mr. W., on timber supply, 189 Local debt and rates, recent increase of 30 London, birthplaces of people (Teble), 174, 175; comparative immunity of, from hydrophobia, 434, 437; contains most of foreigners in United Kingdom, 150; dangers of aiding migration from, 180, 181; day census of, 172; depopulation of central area (Table), 171, 174; estimated population in 1631, 170; estimated population in 1682, 170; extent of, 179; Fever Hospital, ad- missions to, and mortality in (Tables and Plate), 399, 402, 403; in fourth century, 169; immigration from country (Table), 24, 25; Inner Ring, increase in (Table), 171, 174; Local Government of, 179, 180; mortality of, compared with other large towns, 179; mortality of, in 17th century, 180; natives of, in provinces, 173; occupations of foreigners in, 178; occupations of people, 175, 176, 178; old bills of Imortality, 173; Outer Ring, increase in (Table), 171, 174; past growth of 169-171; poor, sick, “afflicted,” and criminals in, 179; population compared with those of several countries (Table), 168, 169; Queen AVADAE_Y 45 I Elizabeth's proclamation to restrict growth of, 170, 176, 180; rapid increase of population, 27; with Outer Circle of towns, 169 Loua, M. Toussaint, on increase of rural and urban populations, 163, 164 Lubbock, Sir John, on census of con- sanguineous marriages, 213, 214 Lunacy, alleged increase of 247 Lunatics and imbeciles, increase in, 29 Lung diseases, increased mortality from (Tables), 230, 237, 241, 248, 249, 254-264; sex- and age-mortal- ity from (Tables), 237,238,254-264 MACDONALD, Sir John A., 126 MacKellar, Dr. A. O., Police returns. of rabies (Plate), 424 Macoun, Professor, estimate of uncul- tivated arable land in Canada, 188 Male infants, excessive mortality of, in first year, 9 Malthus, Essay on population, 182, 187, 196 Manchester, fluctuations of diarrhoea mortality in, 293, 294; growth of, 163; unhealthy condition of, 9 Manitoba, growth of a city in, 116, 117; increase of population (Table), 115, #; race-constitution of people, 11 Marriage-rate, curve of (Plate), 12; definition of, 5; effect of, on birth- rate, 13-15, 33, 252; influence of depression of trade on,83; influence of Irish famine on, 13; influence of Russian war on, 15; influence of price of wheat on, 15; variations of, 14 Marriage-rates in European countries, variations of, 14 Marriages, consanguineous, and idiocy, deaf-mutism, &c., 213, 214; as a subject for census inquiry, 213,214 Marriages in England and Wales, 12 Marshall, Prof., on census of employ- ment, 207, 220, 221 - Measles, diseases resulting from, 237; epidemics of, frequent, 16; fluctu- ations in mortality from (Tables), 230, 237, 254-264, 267; in relation with lung diseases (Plate), 371, 372 Meat, countries exporting, 184 Melbourne, population of (Table), 158 Mental afflictions, imperfect returns of, in census, 209, 223 Merthyr Tydfil, low diarrhoea mortality in (Diagram and Tables), 275,276, 290, 292, 298, 299, 303 Metropolitan Asylum Hospitals, ad- missions compared with fever mortality in London (Table), 409; admissions to, a measure of preva- lence of fever, 403; admissions and mortality (Tables), 399, 400, 402-412; case-mortality in (Table), 410,411 : deaths from fevers, com- pared with totals in London (Table), 408-412; increasing proportion of fever cases in London dealt with, 410, 412; recent admission of diphtheria cases, 410 Mexicans in United States (Table), 78, 79 Middlesborough, rapid growth of (Table), 160, 162 Migrants from European countries, percentages of females among (Table), 108 Migration, balance of, 249; from Europe, summary of, 152-154; im- portant influence of, on political world, 439, 440; influence of, on growth of jº 34; net loss by, in England and Wales (Table), 42; returns of, liable to error, 43; statistics, lessons of, 154, 155 Minor, Dr. Thos. C., on erysipelas and child-bed fever, 317-319 Mitchell, Mr. See Buchan and Mitchell Moltke, Won, on prospects of next great war, 31 Monte Video, net migration at (Table), 131 Montreal, French difficulty in, 122; population of, 158 Mortality, at different ages, 8; effect of weather on, 20; of males and females, 89; recent changes in, 441, 442. See also Death-rate Murchison, Dr., Treatise on continued fevers, 394, 397-399 NATAL, migration to (Tables), 139, 140; population of (Table), 138 National Debt, recent reduction of, 29, 30 Nationality, as a subject for census inquiry, 213 Negroes, and self-government, 70, 71; in United States, 69-71, 112 New South Wales, growth of pop u- lation (Tables), 141-145; marriage-, birth-, and death-rates in (Table), 58; town population in (Table), 157, 158 New York, Germans in (Tables), 88, 92; Irish in (Table), 92 New Zealand, growth of population 452 AWOAZ Y in (Tables), 141-145; Maoris in, 146; marriage-, birth-, and death- rates in (Table), 58; town popu- lation in, 157 Norway. See Scandinavia OCCUPATIONs, classification of, for cen- sus, 210, 211, 224; difficulty of tabulating, 219–222; tabulation of, in Denmark, 221 - Ogle, Dr. W., on depopulation of rural districts, 36; on mortality of boys and girls from violence, 429; on marriage-rates and marriage ages, 15 Orange Free State, census of, 138 Owen, Sir Hugh, method of estimating populations for Local Government Act, 1888, 201 PARKES, Dr. E. A., manual of practical hygiene, 185 - Pennock, classification of continued fevers, 394 Petty, Sir William, estimate of popu- lation of London in 1682, 170 Phthisis, causes of death studied in connection with, 371; decreased mortality from (Tables), 230, 233, 234, 254-264, 267, 268, 373-375, 441, 442; evidence insufficient to prove it communicable, 385, 393; mortality of females at ages over fifteen, 389; mortality of males at ages over fifteen, 387; not an epidemic disease, 372, 374; pro- bable deaths of husbands and wives from, in combination (Table), 392; probably a distinct disease, 234, 241 ; in relation with tabes mesen- terica and tubercular meningitis (Plate), 374, 383; weekly varia- tions of mortality from (Plate), 373, 376-378; yearly fluctuations of mortality from (Plates), 371, 372, 376 Pidgeon, Mr. D., Old World ques- tions and New World answers, 65, 74 Pleurisy in relation with rheumatism of heart, 375, 376 Pneumonia, causes of death studied in connection with, 371 ; decreased mortality from (Table), 375; ex- cessive mortality of males from (Table and Plate), 378-380, 383; geographical distribution of (Table), 380-382; infectious, an epidemic of, in 1746||7, 443; not in general an epidemic disease, 383; weekly variations of mortality from (Plates), 376-378; yearly fluctuations of mortality from (Plates) 371,372,376 Police regulations as to dogs in streets, 420-422, 424 - Polynesians, migration of, to Queens- land, 144 Pondoland, 138 Population, causes tending to diminish, 30; density of, in counties (Table and Plates), 26-29; of England and Wales, daily increase of, 23-25; estimates of, after long interval from census, 203-205; estimates of, need verification, 191; growth of, as affected by changes in death- rate, 251, 252; growth of, effect of epidemics on, 32; growth of in geometrical progression, 32; im- portance of studying growth of, 438, 439; influence of migration on, 34; precedence of Great Powers by, 57; probable increase of 1881- 1901 (Table), 26; recent growth of, 22, 23, 25, 30; sex- and age-con- stitution of, effect on death-rates, 245, 246; of Western Europe, growth of (Tables), 182-184 Populations of certain counties, dimi- nution in (Table), 35, 36 Portugal, migration from, 51 Portuguese in United States, 79 Preston, high diarrhoea mortality in (Diagram), 274, 275,290, 291, 298– 303 Preventive medicine, 253 Price of wheat, influence of, on mar- riage-rate, 15 - Price-Williams, Mr. R., on growth of London, 161 . Priestley, Dr., definition of word “epi- demic,” 328 Public Health Acts, operation of, 235, 236 Puerperal fever, geographical distri- bution of (Table and Plate), 330, 331; more complete returns of, since 1880, 325; recent increased mortality from (Table), 325, 332; in relation with erysipelas (Table and Plate), 312, 316-319, 321, 327– 331; in relation with rheumatic fever (Table and Plate), 317, 329- 331; and scarlet fever, essential differences between, 329 Pyaemia, apparent rise in mortality from, 316 province of, QUEBEC, decadence of, 122 ZAWDEX 453 * Queensland, growth of population (Tables), 141-145, 157 Quinquennial census, necessity for, 199-205, 223 - RABIES, cases admitted to Dogs' Homes (Tables), 419–423, 437; effect of police regulations in diminishing, 420-423, 437; geographical dis- tribution of, in 1887-1889 (Table), 425; and hydrophobia, 418; in- fluence of weather on, 418,423,424; seasonal prevalence of (Tables), 418-424, 437; sex-proportions of animals attacked by, 430, 437; value of isolation as a means of checking, 436 Races, amalgamation of (Tables), 86- 89, 92-95, 98-101 Radcliffe, Dr. J. Netten, on sanitary fundamentals, 18 Rainfall in connection with disease (Table and Plate), 281, 282, 296, 322, 323, 326, 327, 334 Rates, birth- and death-, value of depends on shortness of census intervals, 203; meaning of, 4 Ravenstein, Mr. E. G., on the laws of migration, 37, 149, 156 Registrar-General, value of returns published by, 438 Registration, new Act, 12 Religious profession as a subject for census inquiry, 211, 212, 222, 224 Respiratory organs, diseases of See Lung diseases Rheumatic fever as a cause of heart disease, 238, 239; in relation with erysipelas (Table and Plate), 317, 329-331, 442; in relation with puerperal fever (Table and Plate), 317, 329-331 Rheumatism, geographical distribu- tion of (Table and Plate), 330, 331; of heart in relation with pleurisy, 375, 376 Ridley, Mr. Matthew, opposition to Census Bill of 1753, 194, 195 Risley, Mr. H. H., Census of Thibet in 13th century, 193; on unwise grouping of religions, &c., in Indian census, 219 Russia, essentially an Asiatic power, 440; increasing migration from, to United States (Tables), 106-109; migration from, 50; neglect of statistics in, 440 - Russian war, influence of, on English marriage-rate, 15 SALFORD, fluctuations of diarrhoea mor- tality in, 293, 294, 300, 301 Sanitary legislation, 19, 347, 409 Sanitary reform, and diarrhoea mor- tality, 300; effect of, on fever mortality, 235, 236 Saskatchewan. , See Canada, provi- sional Districts Scandinavia, migration from (Tables), 49, 50, 106-109 Scandinavians in Canada (Table), 80 ; in United States (Table), 79-82 Scarlatina, and associated diseases (Table, Plate, and Diagram), 312- 334; decreased mortality from, 441; effect of isolation, 326; epi- demics of, 16, 17,314; geographi- cal distribution of, 355; increasing proportion of cases dealt with in Metropolitan Asylum Hospitals, 410,412; possibly spread through medium of some lower animal, 327; and puerperal fever, essential differences between, 329; recent decrease of (Tables), 230, 236, 254- 264,267, 268, 326,333; in relation to density of population (Table), 353-355; seasonal prevalence of (Tables and Plate), 400, 405, 411; yearly fluctuations of (Plate), 314 Schools, additional, required before 1901, 28, 29 Scotland and Ireland, natives of, in different countries (Table), 148 Seeley, Professor, on settlement of America, 52 - Segregation of races in United States, 66 - Sewell, Mr., statistics of rabies, 422 Sex, as a factor in death-rates, 245; influence on death-rate, 6 Sex-proportions of children born, 249 Sickness, as a subject for census in- quiry, 213 Simon, Sir John, on sanitary legisla- tion, 19 Simple continued fever, diagnosis, probable errors in, 397, 398, 407, 408, 412; in London 1869-1884 (Table), 396, 397, 410, 411; mor- tality from, disputed, 397, 398,407; seasonal prevalence of (Tables and Plate), 401, 402,407,412 Small-pox, epidemics of, now rare, 16; recent low mortality from, 236, 237 Smith, Adam, 196 Snow, Dr. H., on recent increase of cancer, 240 Socialism, tendency to, in modern legislation, 29, 30 4.54 MAVAO E.Y South Australia, growth of population (Table), 141-145 South Wales, growth of population, - 28 Spain, migration from, 51, 136 Spaniards in United States (Table), 78, 79 Statistical Society, recommendations of, for census, 197, 208-213, 222 Statistician,-qualifications of, 2 Statistics, inexact data of, 440, 441 ; necessity of, 1 ; neglect of, in Cape -Colony, 137; neglect of, in Russia, 440; tend to increased knowledge of important facts, 442; tendency of errors to balance each other, 441 Stewart, classification of continued fevers, 394 Stockport, high diarrhoea mortality in, 292 Summer diarrhoea. See Diarrhoea Summer diseases, 312 Swansea, low diarrhoea mortality in, 292, 298, 301 Sweden. See Scandinavia Switzerland, emigration from, 49 Sydney, population of (Table), 158 TABES MESENTERICA, in relation with phthisis (Plate), 374 Tabulation of census results, 214-223 Tasmania, aborigines extinct, 146; growth of population (Table), 141- 145 Tate, Mr., improvements in arithmo- meter by, 5 Taxation, local, recent increase of, 30 Tembuland, estimated population of (Table), 138 Tennant, Major, and the rabies Order of 1889, 422 Thibet, census of, in 13th century, 193 * Thomas, M., arithmometer of, 5, 227, 311 - Thornton, Mr., opposition to Census Bill of 1753, 194 Thresh, Dr. John C., estimated popu- lation of Essex, 243 Toronto, population of, 158 Town and country populations com- pared, 10; death-rates depressed by immigration from country, 35; population in new countries, 156- 159 Towns, aggregation of population in (Table), 24, 25, 164, 246, 247, 439, 440; conditions of life in, 35; death- rates in, higher than in country, 245, 246; degeneration of race in, | 246, 247, 253; excess of marriages in, 10; excess of women in, 10; growth of, in America (Table), 159; growth of, in Australasia (Tables), 157, 158; growth of, in Austria (Table), 166; growth of, in Belgium (Table), 165, 166; growth of, in Canada, 157-159; growth of, in England (Tables), 160-163; growth of, in Europe, 163-167; growth of, in France (Table), 163-165; growth of, in Germany (Table), 166; migration to, from country districts, 24, 25, 164 - Trade, condition of, influence on mar- riage-rate, 33 Transkei, estimated population of (Table), 138 . Transvaal, state of government in, 140; surrender of, 139, 140 Tubercle bacillus, discovery of 234, 368 - Tubercular meningitis in relation with phthisis (Plate), 374,383 Typhus, difficulties of nomenclature, 16; effect of sanitary measures on, 235, 236; mortality from, in London, 1869-1884 (Table), 396, 397, 410, 411; seasonal prevalence of (Tables and Plate), 399-404, 406, 407, 412; term formerly used to describe all continued fevers, 394, 395 ULTRA-MIGRATION, 34, 43-51 Unemployed, imperfect returns of, in census, 211 United Kingdom, birthplaces of people (Table), 39; distribution of natives of (Table and Plate), 149; migra- tion from (Tables and Plates), 44- 47, 160; increase of population (Table),46;inter-migration (Table), 41-45; natives of, in United States at successive censuses (Table), 101 United States, Aboriginal Indians in, 66-68; becoming less British in race, 107, 110-112; British in (Tables), 95-101; and Canada, mixture of races compared, 117, 118, 125; Canadians in (Table), 74-78, 101, 102: Chinese in, 68, 69; distribution of foreign-born (Tables), 102-106; Dutch in, 78; estimated natural, increase in, 57- 62; French in, 74-78; foreigners in, as foreign-born and native-born (Table), 73, 74; foreign-born in large cities, 105; Germans in JAWADAEX 45.5 (Tables), 82-89, 91; growth of population and wealth in, 54-62; immigration from European coun- tries (Tables), 106-110; increase of coloured population, 61; Irish in (Tables),89-95; Mexicansin (Table), 78,79; migration to, 47, 48, 54-56, 60,62; migration from Germany,60; from United Kingdom, 60; nation- alities of immigrants (Table), 62; natives of United Kingdom in, at successive censuses (Table), 101 ; neglect of vital statistics in, 57; Negroes in, 69-71, 112 ; parentage of people (Tables), 64, 65, 71-74, 77, 82, 85-88, 92-95, 97-100, 103; population by race and birthplace (Table), 62-64; Portuguese in, 79; probable future increase of population, 188; race constitution of people, 110, 111 ; rapid growth of cities in (Table), 159; reason for elaboration of census, 208; Scandinavians in (Tables), 79-82; segregation of races in, 66; Span- iards in (Table), 78, 79; statistics of parentage (Tables), 64, 65, 71- 73,76, 77, 82, 84-88, 92-95, 99-101, 103-105 TJrinary system, diseases of See Kidney diseases Uruguay, census of (Table), 130, 131; future prospects of, 131, 132; migration to (Table), 131, 132; race-constitution of (Table), 130, 131 Utah, birthplaces of population (Table), 104; Danes in (Table), 104; English, Welsh, Scotch, and Irish in (Tables), 96-98, 104 VICTORIA, growth of population (Tables), 141-145; marriage-, birth-, and death-rates in (Table), 58; town population in, 158 Violence, changes in age distribution of mortality from, 240 Vital statistics, national system of, de- fended, 227, 228; neglect of, in United States, 57 THE WAGES as a subject for census inquiry, 211 - Walker, General, on migration into towns, 164 Wars in past and present times com- pared, 30, 31 Weather, influence of, on disease, 266, 278, 279, 281-283, 289, 290, 295- 297, 300, 312, 313, 322, 326, 327, 369, 370, 373, 376, 382, 383 Weir, Dr. A. McCook, on causation of summer diarrhoea, 297 Western Australia, growth of popu- lation (Table), 142-145 -- Wheat, consumption ( f, per head, 185, 186; countries importing or ex- porting (Table), 184, 185; price of, influence of, on marriage-rate, 15 Wheat supply, area required for cul- tivation, 186-188 Whitelegge, Dr., B.A., on weekly vari- ations of mortality from croup, 321 Whooping-cough, diseases resulting from, 237; epidemics of, frequent, 16; fluctuations in mortality from, 237, 254-264, 267, 268; in relation with lung diseases (Plate), 371, 372; sex-mortality from (Tables), 237, 254-264 - Widows, excess of (Tables), 9, 250 Wigan, fluctuations of diarrhoea mor- tality in (Diagram and Table), 274, 275,290, 291, 299, 301-303 Winnipeg, rapid increase of, 157 Winter, diseases of, 312; method of measuring severity of 376 Women, excess of (Tables), 8, 9, 249, 250, 253; longevity of, 8; married, excess of (Table), 9 YoFK, increased diarrhoea mortality in, 292 Young, Sir Frederick, on state of government in Transvaal, 140 Ystrad-y-fodwg, rapid growth of (Table), 160, 162, 163 ZYMOTIC diseases, decreased mortality from (Tables), 229, 230, 254-264; ossible sources of infection, 327, 352, 353, 355 END. 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