. $ a .is . . I OFT ORNL P . ... , - - • om : E ste - : . • . EEEFEETNE 11:25 | 1.4 1.16 10 MICROCOPY RESOLUTION TEST CHART MATIONAL BUREAU OF STANDARDS -1963 : ONNY_f_2531 NOV ¿ 9 1966 2.C. $ :00; 12.53 Conf-660934-3 MASTER RELEASED FOR ANNOUNCEMENT IN NUCLEAR SCIENCE ABSTRACTS Optimum Utilization of Nuclear Fuels* by J. A. Lane For Presentation at the IAEA International Survey Course on Economic and Technical Aspects of Nuclear Power Vienna, Austria, September 5 - 16, 1966 . . . . . . LEGAL NOTICE ! SOL This report was prepared as an account of Government sponsored work. Neither the United States, nor the Commission, nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission: A. Makes any warranty or representation, expressed or implied, with respect to the accu- rucy, completeness, or usefulness of the information contained in this report, or that the use of any information, apparatus, method, or process disclosed in this report may not infringe privately owned rights; or B. Assumes any liabilities with respect to the use of, or for damages resulting from the use of any information, apparatus, method, or process disclosed in this report, As used in the above, "person acting on behalf of the Commission includes any em- ployee or contractor of the Commission, or employee of such contractor, to the extent such employee or contractor of the Commission, or employee of such contractor prepares, disseminates, or provides access to, any Information pursuant to his employment or contract with the Commisslon, or his employment with such contractor. Research supported by the U. S. Atomic Energy Commission under contract with the Union Carbide Corporation. .. Nauhti ?. . .. . Growth of the U. S. Nuclear Power Industry In November, 1962, the U.S. AEC published the now famous "Report to the President" concerning the role of nuclear power in the U. S. economy. The most significant finding in the Report was that "the 10 year AEC civilian power program adopteù in 1958 was on the threshold of attaining its primary objective of competitive nuclear power in high fuel cost areas by 1968". In spite of this optimistic outlook for nuclear power in the United States, sales of nuclear plants were only nominal in 1963 and 1964. In 1965, however, the situation took a dif- ferent turn and in that year alone 5,700 MWE of nuclear capacity was ordered by investor owned utilities. This rush of orders continued and during the first six months of 1966, 8000 MWE more were ordered with another 8000 MWE being negotiated. A list of the plants which will be operating by 1970 is shown in Table 1. As a result of this sudden emergence of nuclear power as a strong contender for a large fraction of new electrical capacity, it has been necessary to revise upwards all previous projections of the growth of the U. S. nuclear power industry as shown in Figure 1. Present pro- jections indicate that the installed nuclear capacity of the United States may reach 66,000 MWE by 1975 and 120,000-150,000 MWE by 1980. Thawn Mow - Beyond 1980, however, a larger portion of new capacity added will be for peaking purposes rather than for iase load production and the corresponding plant capacity factor will be lower than the 80% normally 8.ssumed in present cost comparisons. Thus emphasis will be given to those types of plants with minimu: unit investinent costs such as gas turbines, pumped hydro storage units, etc. Whether the capital cost of nuclear plants can be reduced sufficiently to compete for peaking service is not known. For this reason it is difficult to project the growth of the nuclear industry beyond 1980 with any degree of confidence. Lacking better evidence, the growth of nuclear power during the last two decades of this century may be assumed to approach the figure of 50% of the total electrical capacity by 2000 AD. This is the same capacity projected in the November 1962 "Report to the President". Uranium Resources and Prices WAAR . The rapid expansion of the nuclear industry has been very gratify- ing to those in the business of selling reactors; however, the competi- tive power costs being realized by the light water reactors which con- stitute the bulk of the sales in the U. S. are based on the use of low cost uranium and the low cost U-235 separation capability of the govern- ment owned diffusion plants. Unfortunately, the light water reactors do not use uranium efficiently, thus the continued construction of such re- actors would eventually lead to exhaustion of low cost resources. This has led many people to question how long present low costs of uranium and U-235 enrichment will prevail. GEW The answer to this question is not easy to obtain because this de- pends on a number of unknown factors. The most important of these are, . . . * -2- . . Table 1 f . . Growth of Nuclear Power Capacity in the United States through 1970 (Status of orders as of May 1966) . On-Stream Date Station Name (ur Location) Initial Capacity MWE Total. Capacity MWE Before 1966 Miscellaneous Type Operator Misc. Miscellaneous 1965 Total ~950 N950 1966 LaCross NPR I and II Peach Bottom BWR WGR GCR AEC & Dairyland Power AEC & Wash. Pub. Power Phil. Electric 1966 Sub Total 40 865 1967 San Onofre PWR 375 Haddam Neck Oyster Creek PWR BWR S.C. Edison, San Diego G&E Conn, Yankee : Jersey Central 1967 Sub Total 46? 515 1968 Nine Mile Point BWR 500 Niagara Mohawk 2.968 Sub Total 1969 Brookwood Dresden II Indian Point II Millstone Point PWR BWR BWR BWR Rochester G&E . Comm. Edison Con. Edison Conn. Light & Power 1969 Sub Total 420 715 873 600 2,608 1970 Turkey Pt. III Dresden II Hartsville Palisades W. Lake Mich. PWR BWR PWR PWR PWR * . . - Quad-Cities BWR - Fla. Power & Light 652 Comm. Edison 715 Carolina Power & Light 652 Consumers Power 710 Wisconsin Electric 454 Power Comm. Ed. & Iowa-Ill. 715 G&E Northern States Power 545 Central Vt. Pub. Ser: 450 vice L. A. Dept. W&P 462 Tenn. Valley Authority 1100 1970 Sub' Total 6,455 - .. BWR . Monticello Brattlesboro ? - - Malibu Browns Ferry I PWR BWR . 12,760 - - - ... ... . .. . ... . . Y uthE - fiantinuiD.A NUDIMINI (71, 2 2. mld UTÁNA HOHNUNI1|||IIIIIIIIIIIHIMNIINIIN INTUITIMI MIAMI PETIT UMUW HURDOUIN HNINIIHIIIHNUTI MWI NDINIHIAM TUD. DonDilHHILUTD1Niilli i nmunumuru biliului 1 WIWIXCU SUNIUNILE AIDAH 0111111mainituilllllIIIII WOULUUNIT WEITERKOHET NETTIVO MUHI ADDEDUO miminDHA S HTUITINUT ITI DOMINO i ll10no1: UTRUM UN YA Mint mont ". + 5. E , 2010 DUNIANNATHURIDIHIIIMIIII ImIIIIN || UltiUUIU !!! Dilliti tililllllIII 1' tirion II TERMICHEANNINI 12 TOUTHDOT TINIDILINIIIIII . ! NIMRODUINTI ICEBDULMA RHUMATT RHIIIIHII TH AT . .". . ; . 21 TIT millilin. 100 HIHIE HDR lillii ::.it . W illllllllllll UwMLIHU U lulllllllllllll . F O DHIT MUIlIlIlIllIINIRIN OR Mllll|IIIIIMIINILIRANINUN MENIT AMINTIRI DITETA IHIIHIMI lHINIHINNRITUNDIDO IT ON ME . V UMUMAMO 1 - . m 000 Min HOBITI InnnnWARD TORNIO T OHT NANI MTIH H UMORTITUTO HODILNI DUNII IMD10 DOUNIK umumnDDNIHNOBONDAN MON CUI HUNII DINOSI HULUNDUNII NDIPI! TIL MIOMOWIU HUSTRU ALTID ON NATALI|IHHURTNIMIV DHIDI THONITOUTUMUTUNUL 107 IVIUDUNDONIMMT MUUD MURUDA!! Bull IMATUD! Llull fillim III I! W illis WIRINI Hot! !! ! .. Hullllllll INTUI DIHAN BULL UIT . 12 A 7 N IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIITITTIIN 2006 2000 1993 . Ir HUU lllllUIIIII llllllllllllIIIIII UCHUlllll INI IH i ! F. LA T - HllllllMHIIIIIII lllllllllllllllll lllllllllllll NullIIlll S or ' '1 QINI HIRUNET 05 E.;. FI INIMI IllllMHB DE - HHIIIIIIIIIIII VA 1. Niil ! illlllllllllll IIILIOHUTAHUTIRLINE U . 1 til. LUITIUINIT 101HQURUNIMID MINI Im WTOHIMOINDUNUMILINI HRTAUDUTUITUDNITTT El minimo muilllIIIIIMIII RIDUUMOUDUNOVIOIT FATA MTIHTIJUNTIITTI WUWWONDUM FOODMA0W Nlllllllllllllll l silattiili TUTUUIU ODNUT mnm mouniunilllllllllll TE DU MunguluinumHDns JETTA DI UBUNIIIIIIHNHILI omITIRIHUDUL HIILSIUI. BROODT!!!! UIINIUM T OU TON! RITMA WinIHMIHI MD MINIMIINIUUIIL ::: P ITIT 1:11 WHITE KI S MINIUIIIIII NA UTHUINO MM IINIT 11: MMWNNUNHII Not DIBUTITUIDIT AHMIMINTAO R AJDIHUULIINI AU LIMITTIT IHM ADUANIANUMIII it. NUDINUMAR-61KMIINUO 10 1:11. MilllUIIII malm HDKININKAM manuumutlII and HD MUOMINI ANTROPANNONIU NERDIA MAYDANHNUTIM TEM UTILITmnim ATNUMROH lillil INNIHA UBRUDOVINOINTI di rum: DIVUNO Umenim . MERID Mhmi ma UEHIDUPAN K ABURINI C MD 01 Muuto NOTTON mukan MUI PUHTARLIASTOT LOU FINI DIWA0 Kudumu LEKEDAmulehrunDiNDnir L MO HRANH PIRM INRmQuinDUMAN EDHIN ATHE ARM URIMI1;1101111! M : : MEDIHNITT SIN WOUMERI ID:D D10mmun ANDUN HIT ! To na DIIDII Aamuumimitill : TER EATHHIINNI allflllllIllIIDUIT TITANITOBA LEIRIHLUTUNUMI NINARS D RAHIHNI BUUHU UIIIIIIIIIMUTHI Hill Homium Houmlu MIDI 2.USRBÍRTUTURUKUNIMINIIIIIIIITA T DINHHUDHUMUNIITMIA P omilu DKIHITHIUM HUT PADA KH 3 W " - wa UNIMATION EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE . NO . DTA MUHARRO ihU MARIN NOU IIB m Figure 1 NUMIHI PL DO 4 A2 . OBRT control AZAZZAVITAE . TO HT -encome *** 1990 1989 1980 1975 lonLIT LIITITITITTTTTTTTTTTTTIIII 1970 145 1960 1959 D IODHIMIMMI DHUIR UMIDIT UNWIRMINNILEHbili, . W!! 1mNODINU i minimalni HUHUUNNILIHIM Wul . T 19:11 URI !:11); PILT BH RH MIT UNRAISIIN Il Q Illllll fi! iiiiii A lullah BINTI EPBURNinia 1110||| THIHUITTIMURIT it. In 11 AM Hill HDIIGIlluillHE : D ili Willu MINIHIHIROUND DURDUKTIMONIO HUU Ult " 100,000 EEEEE WS W : !!! AU ! Hiiuildirili!!" ULTA: 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 出則非祖 ​EEEEE BER HUTHI MITSUAMIRI WAYANSIMALUMINIO BIOWONDON OHTOV TUNNETUA ZUNUMI lllllllllIIIIIIllllllllllllllllllllMHIITTI ° 10,000 MADC IN . . EUGENE DIETZGEN CA. 4 CYCLES X 10 DIVISIONS PER INCH SEMI-LOGARITHMIC NO. 340-L410 DIETZGEN GRAPH PAPER .-.-.- .-.-.- odem -- ILUTUL-med- 1. ' . ! Smi 4 . 1: 1: m . (1) extent of resources of low cost ore, (2) growth rate of the nuclear industry, type of reactors ordered by utilities. It is apparent that the last two factors are very much dependent on the first factor, ore availability. For example, if resources of low cost uranium are small, rising prices may change the competitiveness of nuclear power and thus the growth rate of the industry. Rising ore prices might alsс influence utilities to invest in reactor types such as breeders or near breedere whose power costs are relatively insensitive to or Coste. If large amounts of low cost uranium are discovered, however, the competi. tive position of light water reactors will persiot and there will be less incentive to turn to breeders. It is very important, therefore, to es- tablish as well as possible the extent of low cost resources of uranium. Figure 2 shows what was known in 1963 concerning reserves of 1,0g available at costs less than $8.00/10. It is seen in this figure that an extrapolat. of the line showing reserves plus cumulative production to 1966 indicates A present net reserve which is in general agreement with the June 1966 AEC estimate of about 145,000 tong at costs less than $8.00/1b. If one were to add $2 per lb to the purchase price of Ug0g, these same bodies of ore are estimated to yield an additional 45,000 tons bringing the total known U.S. reserves of low cost urarium to 190,000 tons U30g. AVM These estimates of reserves, however, are based on the assumption that little or no exploratory activities will take place in the next several years. As a matter of fact, exploration for uranium 18 once again underway and 18 mining courpanies have projected 17,5 million feet of drilling at an estimated cost of $20 million over the next 3-1/2 years. One would expect that this effort will uncover new resources of low cost ore at a rate comparable to that achieved in the 1950's. The U.S. AEC estimates that this activity might yield a possible additional 325,000 tons of UzOg at costs less than $10/16. Estimates of uranium resources at costs above this figure are even less accurate, however, the best information &vailable indicates 325,000 more tons UgOg at costs of $10-15/16 and 610,000 tons at $15-30/1b. Fuel Utilization Characteristics of Converter Meactors Rising ore prices will influence nuclear power costs by increasing both fuel inventory and fuel consumption costs. These latter costs, of course, depend on the 80-called "fuel utilization characteristics" of the reactors comprising the nuclear industry (1.e., specific inventory and conversion ratio). In any given reactor it 16 possible to vary the fuel utilization characteristics by varying the core design and burnup cycle; however, it is reasonable to assume that reactors will always be designed and operated in such a fashion as to minimize power costs rather than maximize fuel utilization. Thus for any given set of economic conditions, the fuel cycle yielar.ng minimum power costs is first established and then the corresponding fuel utilization characteristics determined. In order to relate fuel utilization to ore requirements this is determined by the quantity of V30g required to provide the total inventory THOUSANDS OF TONS Figure 2.... 300 0 300 1 250%. RESERVES U,O, IN ORE PLUS CUMULATIVE PRODUCTION PROJECIED PRODUCTION NO DEFERRAL JAN. 1. 1963 RESERVES REMAINING AT DEC. 31, 1970 16.000 TONS 250 200 JAN. 1, 1963 RESERVES 167,000 TONS CARIUIIIIIIIIII100001000, lar11010ORIQL) 150 S 150 - CUMULATIVE PRODUCTION U, O, IN ORE 5 . U 100 PROJECTED PRODUCTION WITH FULL DEFERRAL OF 16.000 TONS TO POSI-1966 PLUS 16.000 TONS ADDITIONAL SURCHASES -100 50-... 50 UNITED STATES URANIUM RESERVES AND PRODUCTION THOUSANDS OF TONS OF U3 O .. . 1952 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 DE CALENDAR YEARS . 69 70 71 - Ó- 2 .: of fissionable material associated with the reactor per megawatt of elec- trical generating capacity and the quantity of U30g required per megawatt of electrical generating capacity to provide for burnup of fissionable material. These requirements are listed in Table 3 for several types of reactors. The reactors are more advanced than are being built today but the performance indicated should be attainable within a few years, except possibly for the hypothetical Very Advanced Converter Reactor, which has a much lower specific inventory and a conversion ratio approaching one. The latter is included to show what a drastic improvement in the "advanced converters" might accomplish. In the studies from which the data were taken, the reactors were generally optimized to obtain the lowest power cost from low-cost fuels. Optimization for use of higher cost fuels would have resulted in better, but not greatly better, fuel utilization and higher power costs, Fuel Utilization Characteristics of Breeder Reactors The effectiveness with which a breeder reactor can reduce the total resource requirements depends on the specific inventory and doubling time of fissile material in the breeder system, the growth rate of the nuclear power industry, and the capacity in converter reactors at the time the breeders begin to be used for essential.ly all new capacity. Character- istics taken from studies of oxide- and carbide-fueled fast breeders and of a molten-salt-fueled thermal breeder are presented in Table 4. The . . . " and from 8 to 50 years for the thermal breeder. . . . N ' P . Influence of High Ore Costs on Power Costs -..- - .. - . ..- . The minimum effect of the cost of U30g and Th02 on the cost of power is shown in Table 5 for the reactors and the corresponding inventory and consumption numbers from Teble 3. These minimum costs are only the costs associated with the raw materials and do not reflect the higher enrichment, fabrication, processing, and other costs that invariably accompany increases in raw material cost. It is seen that even the very best converter reactor would suffer heavy cost penalties if the U30g cost were to rise above $30 per pound. In the thorium-fueled reactors, the consumption of thorium is small, and for those reactors with low inventory the use of high-cost resources has on.ly a small effect on the power cost. The near breeder version of the seed blanket reactor would incur a considerable cost penalty in an era of high-cost thorium. The foregoing estimates of the effect; of high ore costs on power costs are based on the assumption that the ore is being mined for its fissile con- tent. Once a self-sustaining breeder industry is established all fissile uld be met by breeding and ore would only be mined for its fertile content. Under such conditions the cost of fissile material will depend on the overall economics of the breeder system and not on the cost of ore. The cost of U-235 separated from high cost ore, however, would always set an upper limit on the price of fissile material. Table 3. Fuel-Use Characteristics of Several Types of Converter Reactors Reacto kg fissile Mwe) Specific Inventory short tons U308 short tons TŁO2 1000 Mwe) 1000 Annual Consumption at 0.8 Total Load Factor kg fissile short tons U308 short tons Thoz Mwle) 1000 Mwe) 1000 Mwe) 2.3 BWR or PWR HWOCR-V SBR 500 260 1.2 : 135 74 - 870 . 15 1.5 TIROCR-Tha 520 . 0.62 0.34 0.07 : 0.22 0.11 0.05 48 HIGR VACR .3.1 670 : 380 : 130 . 95 . 100 : 24 0.8 1.0 . . . .. 220 11 1 BWR or PWR = Slightly Enriched Uranium Fueled Light Water Reactors · HWOCR-U = Uranium Fueled Heavy Water Organic Cooled Reactor SBR = Thorium Fueled Seed Elanket Reactor (Light Water Moderated) HWOCR-Th = Thorium Fueled Heavy Water Organic Cooled Reactor HIGR = Thorium Fueled High Temperature Gas Cooled VACR = Hypothetical Very Advanced Converter Reactor Table 4 Fuel Utilization Characteristics of Several Breeder Reactors (Doubling time = 1/annual yield) Specific Inventory og fissil Mwle) short tons U308 1000 Mwle) Breeding Doubling Time (yr) Ratio เว 1100 ง Liquid.metal-cooled fast breeder reactors Carbide fueled. Carbide fueledº Oxide fueled Oxide fueled Helium-cooled fast breeder reactor Oxide fuelede Carbide fueled Molten-salt thermal breeder reactor MSBR with Pa removal mm m 520 870 650 1.4 to 1.6 1.4 1.2 to 1.3 1.2 to 1.4 12 - 17 8 18 - 28 10 - 20 ๆ 0.4 to 1. 5 0.7 8 7 to 320 150 1.03 to 1.08 1.07 8 - 50 14 oo R. B. Steck (compiler), Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor Design Study, WCAP-3251-1, Westinghouse Electric Corporation (January 1964). Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor Design Study, CEND-200, Vol. 'I and II, Combustion Engineering, Inc. (January 1964). “Large Fast Reactor Design Study, ACNP-64503, Allis-Chalmers (January 1964). M. J. McNelly, Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor Stuây, GEAP-4418, Vol. I and II, General Electric (January 1963). A Study of a Gas-Cooled Fast Breeder Reactor, Initial Study, Core Design Analysis and System Development Program, Final Summary Report, GA-5537, General Atomic Division of General Dynamics (August 15, 1964). .: . , - minivan sama Table 5. Partial Effect of U308 Cost on Cost of Power Reactor Type Contribution of Raw Material Cost to Power Cost (mills/kwhr) $5/16 $10/16 $30/10 $50/10 Inventory Burnup Inventory Burnup Inventory Burnup Inventory Burnup 0.70 0.37 BWR or PWR HWOCR-V SBR HWOCR-TI HIGR VACR 0.07 0.04 0.12 0.07 0.09 0.03 0.19 0.10 0.02 0.07 0.04 0.02 U308 Requirements 0.24 0.38 0.07 0.21 0.24 0.04 0.14 0.14 0.19 0.07 0.06 0.03 . 0.43 0.22 0.67 0.45 0.58 0.19 1.2 1.2 0.66 0.14 0.43 0.21 0.10 1.9 1.0 0.22 0.68 0.34 0.16 0.73 0.94 0.31 ThO2 Requirements 0.03 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.14 HWOCR-TI, HIGR, 0.01 0.00 . VACR SBR 0.05 0.00 : 'Inventory charged at 10% per year. 0.09 0.33 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.14 0.33 0.53 0.01 . .. . - 10 - . * Table 6 shows the effect of high ore costs on power costs in a typi. cal fast breeder. It is seen that even at lb, U-238 inventory and consumption costs only amounts to about 0.2 mili/Kwhr. This is a signi- ficant cost penalty but probably not intolerable for a future power industry. . ... .. . . . .. . . .. . . . . Table 6 . . . . . . hii. Influence of Ore Costs on Nuclear Frel Inventory and Consumption Costs . U30g cost, $/16 Representative Fast Breeder(1) Fertile Fertile Fertile Inventory Consumption Total 0.03 0.004 0.034 0.04 0.005 0.045 0.11 0.02 0.13 0.19 0.03 0.22 : :,, ... 50 T . " "... : (+) fertile requirements = 100 kg U-235/MWE, 1.6 kg : U-238/MWY . . .. .. . .' - . . . Influence of Fuel Utilization on Future Ore Requirements ... - : The influence of good fuel utilization on future ore requirements was studied for two power growth rates shown in Table 7. Table ? . Electric Utility Generating Capacity - - - --. --- Total Capacity (1000 MW) Case A Case B Nuclear Capacity (1000 MW) Case. A Case B - Percent Nuclear ... - - Year . 0.9 0.9 10a - (36) 120a 10a (36) a 120a 1965 1970 (1973) 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 240 330 (390) : 580 1000 1700 2900 5000 8600 240 330 (390) 580 1000 1700 2700 3700 4700 omaamaan 330 730 1600 3300 7000 330 730 1500 2600 3800 55 ~ 68 ~ 80 . Projections based on present rapid rate of sales of nuclear plants. Original numbers were 6.8 for 1970 and 75 for 1980. Numbers for 1973 were not in the original projection but are based on the present sales picture and lend support to the higher number for 1980. Case A - exponential growth continued at rate of about 50% per year beyond 2000. Case B = growth linear after 2000 at a rate of 100,000 MW per year. . . . - - - - - 11 - Using these growth rates and tire fuel utilization characteristics given previously, future ore requirements were determined as shown in Figure 3. The assumption was made that only boiling or pressurized water reactors would be built until 1980 and that only reactors associated with a given curve would be built after that time. The total estimated resources and the total cost of obtaining those resources is also in- dicated in Figure 3. It is seen that the fuel requirements for pres- surized and boiling water reactors would require the mining of all our reserves costing less than $30 per pound by shortly after the year 2000. If the industry continued to expand as projected and tile estimate of the availability and cost of the fuels is reasonably accurate, all the fuel available for less than $50 per pound would have to be mined by 2030 at a cost of about $700 billion. The advanced converters presently proposed W!!1 buy 5 to 20 years' time in uranium reserves over the light-water re- actors. Further extension by converter reactors would require develop- ment of a reactor--probably of A. completely different type--with a much lower specific inventory and a higher conversion rat a very advanced converter, the total domestic uranium resource, available for less than $50 per pound U308, would be consumed by about 2050. LUIT Figure 3 does not give the whole picture on rising cre costs because each time a new reactor is put into operation, some commitment is made for its future fuel supply. Although in order to insure that a new power plant will be profitable over its entire 30 year life the cost of fuel should be considered over this period, fuel suppliers will not make such a long term commitment. Thus, nuclear plant buyers will have to base decisions on 5-10 year firm ore commitments and guesses as to price treris in subsequent years. The firm ore commitments from fuel supplies, however, would effectively remove that amount of ore from the reserve status and have an influence on ore prices. This case has not been studied in detail, however, preliminary results indicate that a 5 year fuel commitment would cause about three year displacement in the curves shown in Figure 3. Fuel Resource Requirements with Breeder Reactors The total resource requirements for a power industry in which only water reactors are built until 1980 or 1990 and only breeders are built thereafter are presented in Figs. 4 and 5. The figures show the total resource requirements to depend heavily on the capacity in water reactors at the time when breeder reactors are introduced and, by com- parison with Figure 3, the great incentive for expediting the develop- ment of breeders. The thermal breeder is clearly competitive with the fast breeders in reducing the requirements for mined uranium. If the doubling time is less than about 12 years, the maximum resource requirement depends more on doubling time than specific inventory, so there is little dif- ference between fast and thermal breeder systems. For longer doubling *Inventory in converter and breeder reactors, plus net consumption. by converters minus net production by breeders. - 12 - ORNL DWG. 66-7598 $100/1b 0:00 10,000 $50/Ib V300 $700) billior .: S L .NE . Tillid - ' PWR-BWR SBR $30/ib Vale $50 billion ITHA. MORE Po '. $10/1b U308 an$10 billion . OOT VACR HWOOR hu " PL kesources Mined (thousand short tons U308) PAR l UDAL OU8... k: . ! DIAMAN * . . 1!1!1!: S . LIL 1 Sala Natt Case A Lit Case B 1 LIN . M MT. SU a LES ter 1 te: O 10 thn 1970 1980 1990 2010 2020 2030 2000 Year A Fig. 3. fuel. Required for Inventory and Current Burnup in Converter Reactors. ye: WIT. BLANK PAGE 10,000, $50/10 U30, $700 diuion, OROIL DWG. 66-7609 . Fast Breeders bermal Breeders Case A Case B - - Case A --- Case B $50 duillon 1000 $10/10 U3Os -$10 billion I C Resource Requiremonto (thousand short tono V300) - 13 : - 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year 2010 2020 2030 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year Fig. 6. Total Fuel Requirements for Nuclear Power Industry Based on Building Water Reactors Until 1980 and Breeder Reactors Thereafter. . *. * . 19451* Wd : I . - -- - 14 - . 20,000 $50/10 U80g $700 diulion ORNL DWG. 66-7601 Fast Brecdcrs Thermal Breeders - Casc A ---Casc B 24 yr – Case A Case B - - - 50, yr I$30/10 U308 2.150 billion ya 14 yr 24 yr 14 yr 9 yr 1000 1$10/10 U308 $10 billion Resource Requirements (thousand short tons U308) 9 yr 2011 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year 2010 2020 2030 1970 1980 2990 2000 Year 2010 2020 2030 Fig. 5. Total Fuel Requirements or Nuclear Power Industry Based on Building Water Reactors Until 1990 and Breeder Reactors Thereafter. is . • 15 - : .. times the specific inventory assumes greater importance and the maximum requirements for thermal breeder systems become increasingly less than those for fast breeder systems with equal doubling times. Once the maxi- mum requiremen 18 satisfied, the fast breeders produce much larger amounts of excess fissionable material. Whether this is an advantage depends on the need for the material. Figures 4 and 5 were based on starting the fast breeder reactors with plutonium and the thermal breeders with 2330. The fast breeders require an inventory of 3 to 5 kg of plutonium per megawatt of electric generating capacity, and the converter reactors produce 0.2 to 0.3 kg of plutonium per year per megawatt of electric generating capacity. The growth rate of the nuclear generating capacity is 8 to 10% per year in 1980 and 1990, 80 the converters would be able to provide the inventory in the fast breeders for only a year or two and then would fall rapidly behind. Building additional thermal converter reactors does not seem to be a profitable way to provide the inventory. Instead, most of the early fast breeders (and many of the later ones if the doubling time is long) should be fueled initially with 2350 and operated as fast conver- ters to produce the plutonium for the breeding cycle. This period of converter operation would be about 5 years. The total resource require- ments would be increased by the net loss in production of bred plutonium during that period, and the fuel cycle costs would be increased by the 1086 of credit for bred plutonium and the greater cost of the larger fissile inventory required with 2350 as fuel. Thermal breeders are also likely to be fueled initially with 250 to produce an inventory of 233U. However, the conversion time is only about one year and the inventory is not changed significantly, so the additional resource requirement and the cost penalty are relatively small. Future Separative Work Requirements In addition to the problem of meeting future ore requirements, there is also the problem of meeting future requirements for enriched U-235. Since the capacity of existing U-235 enrichment plants is limited, once this capacity is exceeded, new diffusion plants (or other types of U-235 separation plants will have to be built. Although the actual capacity of existing diffusion plants is still a classified number, unclassified estimated by K. Cohen (Nucleonics, January 1958) and by L. Reichle (Nucleonics, September 1964) indicate this is about 17-20 million kg per year. Since it requires about 250 kg S.W. per kg enriched U-235, Cohen and Reichle estimate that existing plants can produce about 70-80 thousand kg of highly enriched U-235 per year. This corresponds to 8.11 ore process rate of about 20,000 tons of U308 per year. Figure 6 shows the separative work requirements for a nuclear power system consisting solely of light water reactors and fast breeders. It is seen in this figure that the estimated capacity of existing diffusion plants will be exceeded in the early 1980's which is substantially in agreement with Seaborg's recent steitement that "During the latter part of the 1970'8 it probably will be necessary to begin the construction of new enrichment facilities" speech delivered at the National Association - - 16 2030 . . . : 1 1 D Breeders 1 ECOR 1 - - 11 - - 1 Scot M LIIDII DI gezo . 1 1L 0 1 1 DI TO TUT DU Unclassified=capacity of PresentEDiLLusion Plant 1 1 - 1 O C . 1960 . 11 . . . om cit 11 FLOKER 1 TA 11 - TI Year 11 1 325mlIIlonkgly AL 11 CL TU CU I . 1 SU Un TI 19 UU 1 12 TI 1 11 1 1 III DI 1 TI 0661 IL 11 Figure 6. Cumulative and Annual Separative Work Requirements for Light Water Reactors Plus 16 Yr Doubling Time Fast Breeders II 11 1 11 1 III IIIIII DU II 1 L IIIII IPTOV1000 1980 - 17 - of Manufacturers Conference, Washington, D.C., June 7, 1966). Figure 6 also shows, however, that unless breeders become commercially available early enough, not one but several new enrichment plants comparable in size to the present plants will have to be built. Figure 7 shows how the situation can be improved if advanced conver- ters become commercially available by 1975. Under such conditions probably not more than one new diffusion plant would have to be built. Just what the costs of separative work will be in such a new plant is unknown, how- ever, one might hope that through advances in technology costs can be held to the present level of $30/kg S.W. Economic Incentives for Developing Advanced Converters and Breeders An estimate of ore costs associated with the alternative approaches to a self-sustaining breeder industry can be obtained by simply multiply- ing requirements by unit costs in $/lb U308, or using the costs given in Figures 3-5. To these costs should be added enrichment costs which at $30/kg amount to about $13/10 U30g fed to the diffusion plant. On this basis, it is evident that a reduction of 100,000 tons in the amount of uranium which must be mined for its U-235 content corresponds to a total saving of about $5 billion at $10/10 U30g and to $10 billion at $30/1b U308 after adding enrichment costs. Referring to Figures 3-5, it is evident that the savings in mined ore amount to many hundreds of thousands of tons, thus the economic incentive for developing advanced reactors, particularly short doubling time fast breeders amounts to many tens of $ billions. All available means to insure the early commercial availability of such reactors therefore should be pursued. EBBE TEBE . . . . . . . . 1 . - . . . . . OT Figure 7. Cumulative and Annual Separative Work Requirements for Light Water Reactors to 1975, Light Water Reactors or Advanced Converters to 1990 and 15 Year Doubling Time Thermal Breeders After 1990 11 11 IN 1 11 11 1 TI ) 11 1 DI . JI ID 11 I . 1 ID 1 UU 11 11 1 1 LI III LTD S WR 1 I . 1 HNR-Th 1 1 TIL LUI SBR 11 1 1 ITU 1 HTCR UT II 1 1 11 11I DI 1 MUT LI UUUUUUUUUUUUUUU SMSCR 5 IIII DO UU III 1 . 1 D III IN . . III UITI II 1 MAXIMUM :ANNUAL IS:W: RATES kg: 106. 1 . WR-TE : 37 0 :: SBR . 1 11 12 1 0 11 . . . ..-- 11 . 1 1 . 1 11 ::YRARI O261 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 HU Du ULF . Ty. . .. 27 علمن ....... .... PR KE TOTTEN STA END DATE FILMED 12/ 28 / 66