- - - - - * * • . -º-º: . . . Lºº. . tº . 1964 U. S. DEPARTMENT of comme RC E Jesse H. Jones, Secretary # 1943 REAu of Foreign And Domestic commence 0. P. Hopkins, Acting Director A Hypothetical Projection of Expenditures for Commodity Groups Based on Past Relationships to Gross National Product By PAUL W. McCRA C K E N , National Economics Unit Washington May 1943 "A HYPOTHETICAL PROJECTION OF EXPENDITURES FOR conſoDITY GBours BASED ON PAST RELATIONSHIPS TO GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT"' The purpose of this report is to provide a de- scription and critique of the statistical methods utilized in the mechanical projections published in Table III of "Markets After the War" by S. Morris Livingston. That publication stressed what must here be restated emphatically: Data in Table III, "Mar- kets After the War" (reproduced here also) are purely mechanical projections and represent no attempt at comprehensive market analysis for any single commodity group. Some form of mechanical projection seemed de- sirable for illustrative purposes. I. A GENERAL CRITIQUE In earlier studies we have concluded that there is a strong growth trend in the labor force and in its productivity. Because of this growth trend the capacity of available manpower in 1946 will be fifteen to twenty percent greater than capacity in 1940 and forty to fifty percent greater than actual production for that year. If the first postwar year is at a later date there will º an even greater potential increase over the best prewar year. The dollar volume of business will, of course,depend not only on how far we fall short of capacity but also on prices at that time. In terms of the 1942 general price level, peacetime capacity in 1946 would be in the neighborhood of 165 billion dol- lars of gross national product.” In 1940 prices it would be about lºz billion dollars as against 97 billion dollars in 1940, l/Cf., Livingston, S. Morris, "Postwar Manpower and Its Capacity to Produce," Suryay of Currant. Buainaas, April, 1943. 2/ The assumption of a 1942 general price level does not mean that all individual prices will be at their l?A2 level. The 1942 average could result even if no single price were the same providing there are compensating movements." 2-10440 - 2 - . Because of the growth in the labor force and its pro- ductivity a return to the 1940 volume of business would mean an inconceivably large number of unemployed. Conversely, even if that capacity hould not be fully utilized, there is a very large potential increase over the best prewar year. - In its long-range thinking each enterprise has a new problem. How will it be affected by a national output which could be as much as forty to fifty percent above 1940? What opportunities are opened up by a corresponding increase in com- sumer purchasing power? - I When the income of a family is increased it does not in- crease each item of its budget by the same proportion. More is spent for food, clothing and other basic necessities but a larger share of the increase goes for luxuries and for durable goods which need not be purchased regularly. The expenditures of the country as a whole display a similar pattern. Data are available on these fluctuations in seventy-seven groups of commodities and services comprising the gross national product over the period of sharp cyclical decline and recovery from 1929 to 1941.2/ By projecting the relationships which existed over this period by correlation analysis we can arrive at the first crude approximation of how a much larger gross national produc might be broken down in a postwar year. - ...w The results of these projections are given in this memo- randum, along with the equations and charts which show how well or how poorly the mechanical relationships used for the postwar projec- tion fit the historical data. To avoid any misconceptions or any misuse of the data, a few of the more serious limitations should be summarized. 3/ Cf., Shaw, W. H., "The Gross Flow of Finished Commodities and New Construction, 1929-41", survey of Current Business. April, 1942, pp. 13-20; Gilbert, Milton and Banks, R. B., "Preliminary Estimates of Gross National Product, 1929-Al", Survey of Current Business a May, 1942, pp. 9-13; Gilbert, Milton and Jaszi, Georgo, "National Income and National Product in 1942", Survey of Current Business, March, 1943, pp.10-26; Paradiso, Louis J., and Shelton, William C., "Monthly Estimates of Total Consumer Expenditures, 1935-42", Survey of Current Business. October 1942, pp.8-lk and 22; Denison, Edward F., "Consumer Expenditures for Selected Groups of Services, 1929-41", survey of Current Businessa October, 1942, pp. 23-30; and "Output of Manufactured Commodities, 1929-1939", available from the National Income Unit, Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commercee 2-lo2440 Important limitations - 1... Any projection of this sort involves one or more assumptions as to what the gross, national product will be in a hypothetical year after the war. These assumptions can be very useful provided they are not accepted as forecasts. The analyst must never be hypnotized by his own figures to the point where a hypothetical assumption becomes in his own mind an established or forthcoming fact. • O • * . . . . . - The figure assumed for gross national product is simply the calculated capacity of the 1946 labor force in 1942 dollars. Capacity is an optimum goal which probably will not be reached. Furthermore, whatever the postwar price level, it almost certainly will not be the same as in 1942. 2. The historical data from which the projections are made suffer from several limitations. The total for each group of commodities or services represents the dollar cost to the ultimate customer. For those who do not sell direct to the consumer or who do their thinking in physical units these may not be very useful data. The groups are broad enough to hide many comparatively un- related items which may have quite divergent trends of growth or decline. " Also the classification fails to distinguish goods sold to government. Thus the total of consumers durable goods, for example, is overstated to the extent of government purchases of these items which are covered in the total of other services of government. 3. These are merely mechanical projections of prewar relationships. Therefore they are based on the assumption that these prewar relationships will continue to prevail after the war. This is obviously not true (although it may be nearer the truth than the opposite assumption that such projections are completely meaningless because "everything will be changed" by the war). In some instancea the war has greatly accelerated past trends of growth or decline. New products, new materials, new production methods and other developments arising out of the war need to be taken into consideration in modifying these purely mechanical projections to get a more accurate picture of potential markets, 4. The use of the l929-194l data as a base for project- . ing a breakdown of a high postwar output involves two serious difficulties. Mechanically, and as a matter of pure statistical theory, projections have less and less significance as they are pushed beyond the range of data from which the relationships are derived (in this case 1929–41). The mere existence of a much higher consumer purchasing power than we have ever had before might by itself-serve to make our results quite dubious. & 2-- 10440 - 4 - . . . . . . Also a projection based on a period of sharp cyclical decline and recovery clearly assumes that the postwar year will be a cyclical peak like 1929 and 1937 only more so. Because we have never had a period of high but relatively sustained output, we do not know how such an output might be divided among commodity groups. This point is particularly important in the case of dur- able and capital goods. It is difficult to see how the projected output of automobiles, for example, could be maintained for more than a very few years without putting a ridiculously large number of cars on the road even if income or gross national product re- 5. The past relationships between individual groups and the gross national product are the result of fluctuations in both physical volume and price. In some instances price was the more important variable. Whatever the "general price level" in the future, it will certainly be a composite of widely divergent trends in the prices of individual commodities and these prices will have an important bearing on the volume of output and demand relative to other commodities. The war has accelerated these divergences so that there is no reason to expect the past cyclical patterns to hold. Also the projection makes the quite possibly unreasonable assumption that this higher physical volume of output could be achieved within the same pattern of price changes which prevailed over the 1929 to 1941 movements of gross national product and related price changes. 6. The war is creating shortages of some commodities and gluts in other fields. Both will act to disturb past relationships. The postponement of purchases of durable goods at the bottom of the depression and the building up of consumers' inventories during periods of higher income were characteristic of the base period. But a new element has been introduced in the form of a forced and almost complete elimination of the output of many of these durable goods. Indirectly this will also affect other commodities. For example, the smaller number of cars on the road may reduce the con- sumption of gasoline immediately after the war. The war is also creating surpluses. For example, there is the enormous output of general purpose machine tools which could be a glut on the market for years to come. Past relationships are of little help in analyzing this situation. 2-10440 - 5 - In summary, there is hardly one of the projections in the table on the final page about which serious questions cannot be raised. Even where the correlation with gross national product has been very close, this does not in itself establish a cause and effect relationship which existed in the base period or which must carry over into the postwar period. w Fossible Unes of the Protections After all these qualifications one may well wonder what use, if any, can be made of these mechanical, first approximation projections. There are at least two. First, they force us to our sights above the prewar, half-depression levels of the late Thirties. In short, they give some indication of the order of mag- nitude of the increases which must occur if the goal of a high total gross national product is to be achieved. •, Second, with all of the necessary qualifications, these projections do provide a springboard or point of departure from which to form judgments concerning the total effects of social, economic, technological and wºrtime influences on economic activ- ity in this period. <& - II. statistical Analysis” €108 - €ld Scatter diagram charts of expenditures on each of the seventy-seven groups of goods and services are presented. These are constructed by placing a dot on the chart for each year. The vertical distance to the dot as shown by the scale on the left represents the particular commodity or service expenditure for the year and the horizontal distance to the dot as shown by the bottom scale represents gross national product for that year. In many cases the data arranged themselºrs; iºtic, s 39th nite pettern moving upward to the right. If the dots were not too badly "scattered", it was possible to draw a line freehand through these dots which would illustrate the general movement of the expenditure item as gross national product moves. It is also possible to derive algebraically the equation of this line, and this was usually done, This line can now be extended is oxider to read off the commodity expenditure related to the capacity output figure of 165 billions (or any other level); or it is possible to substitute any value for gross national product in our equation and derive a related calculation for the commodity or service expenditure. 4/ The statistical methods used here are not complicated or techni- cal for two reasons. First, those working on the project do not in any sense consider themselves technical statisticians. Second, the more simple and straightforward the analysis the more useful are the reaults apt to be, - 6 - Where simple correlation equations were used, the line rep- resenting the equation (the line of regression) is drawn in the dia- gram. Since figures for 1941 tend to be influenced by the peculiar- ities characteristic of a defense and war economy, that year was not used in any of the computations (except a few for which an explanation is given). For that reason the year 1941 is always circled (and any other years which for some reason were not used in the analysis). - For some of the groups the dots were so widely scattered that simple correlation analysis gave little mechanical significance. In some cases there was no regular pattern. Others indicated a regular secular drift or trend through time up or down relative to the level of gross national product. In these latter instances multiple correla- tion was used and "time" was added as a second independent variable. In such cases the earlier years in the scatter diagram would tend to be persistently higher or lower than later years relative to the level of gross national product. A good example is the upward trend in expenditures for food as shown by these data. (It should be pointed out here that this pronounced upward trend is not so evident in some indices of physical volume of food consumed. See Footnote 10). The partial regression coefficient of food expenditures on time is •ll?31 the unit is one billion dollars, so over the period from 1929- 1940 expenditures on food have been increasing secularly at the rate of about .ll.93 billions per year or $119.3 millions relative to gross national product. ! The technique of adding "time" to correct for the shifting relationship improved the mechanical fit but told nothing about the causes of these trends. Fundamentally, a secular trend is not a function of time but indicates a structural change within the economy which alters the relationships of a commodity or service group with the level of gross national product over a period of time. In making the projections no attempt at market analysis was made for any of the groups which might explain these structural changes. However, the extrapolation of "time" as an independent variable was not carried out on a purely arithmetical basis consonant with the precepts of mechani- cal projections of abscissal time distances. Structural changes obviously are not continuous through time; the rationale for projecting a secular trend diminishes the further the trend is projected beyond the historical period. As a basis for the projections presented here no precise mechanical conclusion on the influence of "time" is possible, there- fore, a middle ground position was taken. Weighing the various reasons for time-scale adjustments it was decided to use l6 time units from the origin for all postwar projections involving the variable "time" instead of i8 which a purely arithmetical secular change would dictate for the year 1946. 2-10440 - 7 - When a multiple correlation was required, a chart is also presented showing the movements of actual expenditures and expendi- tures as calculated from our equation. (See the following charts). The closeness of these calculated expenditures to the actual O expenditures over the period from 1929-40, gives a rough indica- tion of how well our equation has fitted the data. Both calcu- lated and actual values are also extended on by a series of dots to 1941 though, as mentioned above, that year was usually not in- cluded in the computations. - . In the equations Y2/(in the case of simple regression equations) or X1 (in the case of multiple regression equations) is always expenditures on the item in question; X or X2 is gross national prodyct (depending on whether the correlation was simple Ol' multiple);6/and X3 is, with one or two icated exceptions, time or an allowance for a secular trend. The correlation co- efficient is indicated by "R" when multiple correlation is used and "r" when simple correlation is used. The upper limit of the simple correlation coefficient r is ºl. If the r is $l all of the points in the scatter diagram lie exactly the straight line and the line slopes upward to the right. The limits of the multiple correlation coefficient R are 0 and $l. If R = }l, all of the calculated values (from the regression equation) exactly equal the actual values. This rarely if ever occurs. However, correlations involving economic data tend to give reasonably high coefficients of correlation. There- fore a correlation coefficient much below .90 has little even mechanical significance. - This does not imply that a correlation coefficient of •90 or above indicates that the analyst's problem has been solved. A good correlation never implies causation! The analyst who for- gets this is surely headed for trouble. If common sense and judg- ment enable him to decide that something is caused by something else, he can study the mechanical co-relationship by correlation analysis. Without this word of warning, the data presented here would be worthless. Even worse, they would be dangerous. 5/ The unit of Y or XT is indicated for each equation in the charts below. 6/ The unit of gross national product is always one billion dollars. 1/ The unit of "time" is one year counting from 1929 unless otherwise stated. . . 8/ It is also possible to get negative simple correlation coefficients. The lower limit of -l indicates all points fall exactly on a line which slopes downward to the right. - 2-10440 - 8 - - The discussions of the individual projections which follow should be related to the appropriate charts which also give the squations and indicate the units in terms of which each equation has been computed. As previously discussed, in - those equations where "time" is a variable, 1929 is the point of origin and 16 was the maximum time unit used. - Consumers: G92de and services. - services.”/ l. Housing Expenditures. The main items in this group are rents paid and depreciation on houses owned. We have data for only eight years, the data for 1930, 1931, 1932 and 1934 not being available. Housing expenditures in any one year seem to be closely related to the previous year's income so we used a simple regression between gross national product lagged one year and housing expendi- tures, deriving the following equation: Y = 4.068 + .047X with a correlation coefficient r of .929. Because of the limited data these calculations are not too reliable. 2. Home Miaintenance. About one-half of this item is domestic service, the remainder consisting of services to household furnishings, moving, express, freight services, etc. Here again we have only eight years in our base period, the same 4 years being unavailable. The simple regression equation between gross national product and home maintenance is Y = -2.839 4 el92X and the correla- tion coefficient r is .981. The postwar projection derived from this equation may be high since domestic service is such a large part of the total. It may well be that at high levels of income the alternative openings for employment at more attractive pay will limit the available supply of domestic servants. 3. Household Utilities. This series displays the poorest relationship to gross national product of any of the services. In order to get a fairly good relationship we finally omitted l329 and 1930 and added the year 194l to the series. The simple regression equation between gross national product and household utilities is Y = 1.247 & .010X with a correlation coefficient r of .936. The principal factors operating to disturb the relation- ship seem to have been two. On the one hand the presence of stocks of various kinds of utility appliances meant that even in a year of declining income such as 1930 expenditures for household utilities continued as high as or higher than in 1929. The huge increase in stocks 9/ All of the projection analysis of the service items was done by Kenneth D. Roose of the Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce. 2-10440 - > - of various utility appliances which took place in 1929 made this possible. On the other hand, utility rates are rather insensitive to cyclical shifts. The postwar projections from this equation are subject then to a large margin of error, 4- Personal Carea. The items included in personal care are barber shop services, beauty parlor services, cleaning, dye- ing services, etc. We used gross national product and a time '*. factor (accounting for a slight downward trend) to derive the following equation: X1 = .255 # .01772 º .0336, with as eorrela- tion coefficient R of SS72, - 5. Transportations. This group includes only purchases of transportation services such as fares for taxis, streetcars, railroads, etc. and operating expenses incident to driving a car. It does not cover purchases of cars, railway equipment, or air- planes themselves. These are allocated to the proper commodity group. We secured one of the best relationships here using gross national product and a time factor to derive another multiple correlation equation: X1 = .529.4 .0289X2 - .0712x3. The cor- relation coefficient R was high (.985). • 6. Medical care and Death Expenses. The simple relation- ship expressed in the following equation gives quite a good fitt Y = .704 + .02.1X and a correlation coefficient r of .966. The postwar calculations perhaps underestimate the increased medical expenditures which may result from a continued trend toward group medical insurance, etc. 7. Recreation. A multiple correlation equation with gross national product and a time factor indicating the secular increase in expenditures on recreation results in the following equation; Ki = .338 + .010&2 + .025413. The correlation co- efficient R was .965. * 8. Other Services. The item "Other Services" includes interest on consumer loans, service cost in acquiring insurance, private educational fees, legal fees, etc. This was another series in which we had only 8 years and since the year 1929 was quite out of line with the other years we left it out and added 1941. There is probably an upward trend in this type of expenditure so that our projection from the simple regression equation for the postwar years may be too low. The equation was Y = •888 & 202.1X with a correla- tion coefficient r of .972, 2-10440 • 10 - risha le Goodai 1. Food. A slight secular upward trend (probably a function of population growth) is exhibited, necessitating multiple correlation, X2 is therefore time. This relationship seems reasonably stable because the item is a fairly large part of gross national output and because the factors affecting dollar total food expenditures are relatively jö) The correlation coefficient R is also high (.984). The equation is X1 = 3.513 + * * °. Cigars. Cigarettes a Tobacco and Smoking Supplies- With the exception of two peculiar years, omitted from the compu- tations, the regression relationship seemed to be a reasonably simple one between expenditures on these goods and "gross national output. The equation was Y = .671 & 20139X and the correlation coefficient r was .978. This relationship for the years actually used seems reasonably stable, but the necessity for omitting two peculiar years makes any projection more suspect. Only industry experts can furnish the necessary experience and judgment to interpret this picture. \ - 3. Drug Preparations and Household Medical supplies, The relationship indicated here seems to be a simple one with gross national product, the equation being Y = 1.994 + .058X. The scatter was fairly wide, even omitting the abnormally low year of 1929, and the correlation coefficient r was .924. Any extrapolations of this relationship should be modified by independent judgment with par- ticular attention to such factors as floods, epidemics, and wars (e.g., large expenditures for 1941) which tend to exercise extremely important independent influences. 10/Dollar expenditures for food must be distinguished from physical consumption (e.g., the index compiled by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics). The movements in this sort of a time series of physi- cal volume consumed are far from simple to explain even statistical- ly. They are obviously closely associated with total food produc- tion which at the initial stage is more a function of the vagaries of the weather than of more purely economic factors. In other words, given the level of income, consumers will purchase and con- sume at some price the current production. Price (and to some extent inventory) is the flexible element which makes dollar ex- penditures behave more rationally. No attempt has been made to investigate these complex statistical questions here since this would require almost a separate memorandum, .2-l9440. - ll - - 4. Toilet Preparations. The dots on the chart tend to be rather widely scattered as the low value for r, the cor- relation coefficient, would indicate (.776). The equation was Y = l,897 & .0303X. In view of the peculiar movements in expenditures for toilet preparations since 1929, any projection should be prefaced by a more than average amount of judgment as to the fac- tors involved in determining the extent of the market. Only in- dustry experts could furnish this judgment and experience. - 5. @@. and P h eparatio With the ex- ception of two odd years ### the points in this scatter diagram seem to fall reasonably close to the line of regression. The equation was Y = .472 H .029x and the correlation coefficient r was .933. The presence of any "abnormal" years such as 1938–39 .requires a more than usual degree of caution in making any pro- jections. \ 6. Magazines. Newspapers, and other Printed Matters The pattern here is fairly regular with no distinctly odd years although the correlation coefficient r was still fairly low (.888). The equation was Y = 2.749 & .031X. . ~ * 7. Stationery and Writ upplie The movements from 1929-31 seem unduly sluggish but there seemed little reason for using anything other than a simple relationship with gross national product. The correlation coefficient r was .909 and the equation was Y. - .064 { •028X. - 8. unsellaneous Household Paper Products. This re- lationship is again a simple one with gross national product, the equation being Y = -.135 H .028X with a correlation coefficient r of .94l. This relationship would have been exceedingly close ex- cept for the persistent but mild divergence above the regression line of years 1938-40. An upward secular trend may be beginning here but data for more years would need to be available before the use of a trend factor would be justified. 9. Toys, Games. Sport Supplies. This is a simple re- lationship with gross national product, lagged six months, of the form Y = -.013 + .0193X with a correlation coefficient r of .959.ll/ il/"Lagged six months" means merely expenditures on toys, games, and sports supplies for any year were matched with the average of gross national product for that year and the pre- vious years 2-lô440 • 12 - The points seem to fall reasonably close to the regression line and no year is markedly"abnormal". - * 10. Manufactured Household Illuminating and º Products. . Because of apparent changes in the market for these , products (fuel oil, flash lamps, matches, etc.) from 1929-32 these years were omitted from the computations. This does not eliminate all movements hard to explain. For example, 1937 is lower than 1936 and 1938 whereas 1937 was the peak year for gross national output. For the years 1933-40 the equation was Y =-2.200 + .089X with a correlation coefficient r of .974. However, the high value of the correlation coefficient is misleading because of the omis- sion of early years that did not fit a simple relationship with gross national product. These qualifications make the projection of little value except as a point of departure for a detailed analysis of particular factors affecting markets - which could be made by industry experts only. ll. Nommanufactured Household Fuelss. There was evident here a downward secular trend so time was added as another independent variable (X3). The equation was X1, F_5.620 + .0588X2 - e2225X3 with a correlation coefficient R of S352. While the cºiºi, coefficient is reasonably high, there are two odd move- ments - the sharp peak in 1934 and the marked decline from 1936 to 1937. Such odd movements point to the possibility that resulting projections, tenuous at best, must be used with even greater than ordinary qualification. Technological factors may well be quite important here. - 12. Fuels for Passenger Cars. A simple relationship with gross national product is again indicated. With the exception of 1938, higher than 1937 or 1939, there are no years which deviate emphatically from the pattern which one might expect from a priori considerations. The equation was Y s 3.443, 4 .087X with a correla- tion coefficient r of .931. One point here must be considered in any postwar projection of this item. Passenger car fuel must be consumed through the existing stocks of cars at any period of time. Since stocks of cars in the hands of consumers may well be low in the immediate postwar period relative to demand, any postwar pro- jection of this item will probably be too large until stocks of cars can be built back up to "normal" - a process which may require several years • 2-10440 • 13 - . emidurable : 1- Clothing and Accessories. The scatter diagram indicates a fairly consistent simple relationship with gross national product, but a careful inspection will show early years slightly higher than later years at given level of . gross national product. With time added (X3) to take care of this declining secular trend the equation becomes X1 = .597 .0653X2 - .0997X3 with a correlation coefficient R of .988. Calculations from this equation follow well the actual values for all years from 1929-40. While every caution and judgment must be exercised in any projection, this one seems as stable as any yet discussed. * p Yet one qualification must be inserted here. If there is a fairly rapid demobilization of millions of men in the armed forces, there may result a bulge in the demand for civilian clothing which would push expenditures significantly higher than this mere mechanical projection would indicate for , a short period after the war. There may also be a considerable volume of deferred demand in this field. 2. Shoes and Other Footwear. A declining secular trend relative to gross national product is very pronounced here. With time (X3) added the equation becomes *1 = 4.218 & .1305X2 - .3464X3 with a correlation coefficient Rºof .980. One peculiar movement is evidents lººk is higher than 1935, With the exceptions of this the actual and calculated curves move closely together over the period 1929-40. The influence of a rapid demobilization of millions of men from the armed forces may result in a bulge of demand for civilian shoes some- what above the projected level (as indicated above also for clothing and accessories). 3. Personal Furnishings. A slightly declining secular trend is evident here. With the addition of time the equation becomes x1 = -:435 # .0304X2 -.0276X3, with a correla- tion coefficient RTof .984. The actual and calculated values a from 1929-40 move closely together with no pronounced divergences in any year. - 4. Dry Goods and Notions. By adding time (Ia) to take care of a declining secular trend the equation becomes - le575 # .0754X2 - .2608X3 with a correlation coefficient R of e • The movements of actual and calculated values from 1929-40 are very close as the chart indicates. - 2-10440 - 14 - 5- Semidurable House Furnishings. A slightly rising secular trend is perceptible in this scatter diagram. With the addition of time (X3) to allow for this the equation becomes X1 = 1ſº ºf J.--T_^ ~ 5, - - Y is –2.8 * •l.92X Gross Natipnal Product OW-S —i. (Unit: ll billion) Q 60 70 80 90 lOO ll0 120 - 27 - l2O 3.0 - d : * , * #;" * (Unit: l billion) | I 2.5 —- _-Tº $o _-T 2.0 –– • 57 - :* _-T i. 3) 39. 54 $ºr 19 \ 3 .5 Y = l.21,71 + .010X r = .936 Gross National Product Ol-NY- (Unit: l billion) O 60 - 70 8O 90 lOO ll.0 2.5 l,. Personal : (Udit: l billi n) 2.0 25 $o @ ( Jſ O l. 5 ſº •3 g ***** 4/o se 2% ,287 O * l.0 O 33 } Gross Natiºnal Product º *— - (Unit: l billion) 60 70 8O 90 100 ll.0 l2O O2T OTT –99–- O6 O9 o, O9 N.--> (uo;ttpd T tºpuſ) —s ºw- qonpord Tºujoſºen neoxo *: —-a-——--—-º-º- #4.h fºr gºtº, rººrººººººººm ——41–4 if **. ** *! "t. (E 'ºf º -*- •e - *...*-ā –a.fi~- ſº-a- *-*-*—. ** } (uqt TTFſ, t #. the ſquq-led sus.tº "g thét &t lºst £61 tºt *i-sº f 6 * ~ * - grºcco. Heuto: the -t: petitºr;48g --- tenºtew - * * * . . ;- . - * - , - + ***** O't St V N . . T V - 24- NM. g"T \\ g - 2. N .." N o'z #: T tºrpn) Teuosized “ſ l—l- g"z ~~~~ on) Q º Actual --- Est ed - | X1 = .529 + .0289x2 - .071213 - - •, R $º e 5 l - 1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939 19ll 3.5 - - 6. kasa ar and Death km. - (Unit: l billion) 3.0 2 •.5 * - •0! _T • 35 2.0 .31- 4 •r O l - º y 94 Y \ } .7Ol; k .02.1X .* $4 \ Iº is .966 - Gross National Product it. - (Unit: l billion) 60 70 8O 90 lOO ll.0 l2O owwot-2 Thét 666t 196T 966.T £661 TCét 626t, | 6* * * ºrigzo. 4 ºrgoto + akº" -Ty - & papeurºsa -- Tenqow 2^ .* ,” *— - o's (uo;[[Ta Tº uo;49eroetſ. "D. —w- - —lgºa (uo'ſ TTT G T : qſun) | , * ~! qompoïd Teup;48N sso.10 . { —i- —t— * Hº-Ho- - $0. - - | *; w - Jºſe & ë - . tº •; ** - * s " e - ºw ot -T------- – g" 'uoritya t #: uorquezosul". . . - 31 - 3.5 —L 8. (Other rt ..] (Unit; 1 billion) */ 3.0 tº * 3% º O 37 2.5 → º N. _T 3s- d 2.9}- 52 Y : : .88 + .02.1X Iº gº .97 Gross Natiºnal Product £º L(Unit: llbillion) v 60 70 8O lOO ll.0 2-10440 l2O • 23 - TºéI 696T J.96T 966.T cºst T£6T 6%; - ſ 6 * * * Øxç6II* + £xlzlºt" + £1;"g =TY • popurpass --- Tunqow ,” * ,” 2 * ^s * _* _Hz-TSS - 21.e’ Neº- H w . 92 (uoſ TTT d T : qſum) - podd "T O9. OZT OUT OOI O6 O8 Ol 09 (uoftTrq T : qſuſ.) qonpord Teupp.39N sso.ro **. st º, $º, st - og 14. sa. º ºf eſſ, 4– {ortúa T 14ſun) WF555-stºrisa ºr .C. 2. Cigars, Cigarettºs, Tobacco and Smoking kº. (Uhit: l billibn) --> 2.5. *_T 2. O 4—6-A- _- 9W $º $o } f yº in _T is - f @ _r ~ O 1.5 _* D&º __+ T Y=.671+.0133). r=. 978 ) | Gross Natiohal Product 3. (Unit: l billion) O 60 70 - 8O 90 lOO ll.0 120 9 ld Medical Supplies on) 3. Drug Preparations and :::::: (Unit: 100 mill 2 106 wr— O 37 6 •3% 2. Y=1.994+.05& $s. r=. 924 - | Gross Natidnal Product e3?. 2 (Unit: llbillion) N go 70 80 90 LOO ll JLº. - 3!! - 4.0 O T llo" 4. To let Preparations 6 (Ułit: 100 million) _T wif ºf _T sº - | _T •3% • • 37 O _T t $. Y=1.897.033x r= .776 Gross National Product - (Unit: l hillion) £ºt sh- göt l l2O 5. Cleaning (U t Polishin, ni t; 100 mill: @) ; Preparatio: lon) • 4-0 3.5 *T #! vºy _^ O 2 39 ** 2 $v *A g - - - Y= wiztoºk r=. 933 ; \ Gross National Product P (Unit: 1 * £e O 8O 90 l()0 ll.0 120 —t— | 6. Magazines, Newspapers , and # Printed * - - (Unit; 100 millioh) - $o * - $7 _T LT wj. aſ] ©6 $ - - $1 _T 38 w N. !--—- --~~ %t _*T $4- J3 —r Y = 2.749 } .031X P & •888 - Gross National Product (Unit: l billion) 60 70 8O 90 lCO ll.0 l2O 7. Stationery and wºul, Supplies (Uihit t 100 million) -á *so _*: -..." - $$. - *** *> ** *** Y = .06l, Fl.028X Iº is .909 - Gross Natiohal Product (Unit: l billion) - 60 70 80 90 lCO ll.0 Izo - 36 - 8. *-namel. Household Paper Produk. * - tº (uilt. 100 million) , g #o _T } °37 _` ºt 3 t © 3. 27 2 __T *st -T - ~x"T * ~ l Y = -.l.95 + .028X P = .9ll - Gross Natiohal Product Ol—º- (Unit: l billion) o " 60 70 8O 90 lCO llo 120 2.5 9. Toys! Games, Sport Supplies * (Uhit: 100 million) @ _T - *e © 2. P * - 'se l,5 __{º} 3, *\, 2- e. 35 Y = -. Olº . Ol.93X per Iº a .959 Gross National Product (Unit: l billion) 60 70 8O 90 lOO ll.0 l2O - 37 - 10. Manufa stured Household Ill ting and clans rºad. L^ g (Unit: 100 million) * - 6 ~ *sº O Gſ. $1 l, 35. __ 2 @ Y = -2.200 + ,089). Y’ s •971, Gross Natio Product, O 60 70 8O 90 loC) ll.0 l2O l2 - ll. Nonmanufactured * Fuels (Uhit: 100 million) Q a? so lO 6) $1 *} 8 O © 2. , Tº 46 O ºb $y **** is %u Gross National Product, - (Unit: l billion) 60 70 80 90 lCO ll() l2O - 38 - 12 ll- †-ºº: Household Fuels (Unit; 100 million) N 10 N N © e C N tº º 8 YA /N. sm ºmº —r- Y- Z - “” * * N 2% o * _ - - - ^ Z_ _* * w N - " sº 6 — Actual --- Estimated X] = 5.620 + .osseº - .3225X3 R -> • 9 º:5 T13. l933 1935 1937 l939 l9ll 44% wºmeº l2. rºl for * Cars - - (Udit: 100 million) | - 12 *wo. *gº *sº _` L’. *90 10 → **k- Y = 3.ll.3 +)- .087). I' ºr .931 Gross Natio Product (Unit: l illion) 8O 90 lCO ll.0 120 • 6% - TV6t 696T 2261 926t 2261 T26t 626t *A - - - 3. * 86° ºf B º £1,66b'-2x2990' +wbg'-ºx peºut 4 sºt ---- soy T — y • __2^ S -* * St- —£ 9 & ** y 9 (woºtty q t #4 ºun) “Frº puu #. *T g ----------ºr-º-º-º: -*—w- --- -] Ol O2U OTI. OOT O6 O8 Ol O9 O - * O (uo;ttraſt tº run) * - "| 3ampoad tauptºwn saozo - 420 sº * 49 ** !º •f sº •; | ! ; O | * * #: t #. setrosseº.ow pure ºut q}oto st -y spºſºmpºss OWOI-2 - on - Ovvot—a *śt & 1661 3&t &t T36T Šć * • = u existic' - Zygoct. ste" - ty peºpºrºsa --- nqow . Z TT \ \ \ \ M A. 9T \ Jº 9T bºſ" M * (uo'ſ TTTIn OOT : qſun) \\ *wes JeuqO pub Seous : \ - LI ozt ort oot O6 O8 º: T : qſum) —# * I, gt. (uoiſttru oot ºn) - ~! reuqo put Peous ‘z kr g - qonpo.I.I TeulopºeN Sso.10 / -**. ** 7. 4: of: 4; tº 4. i 4 . wº- ct - ll - 3. rººm. Fºr i | (Unit; 100 million) 2.5 t k . s? & 3e -2. 2.2% $7 ;,” ‘st l.5 *— O *** tº 3. Gross National Product • DJ (Unit: l billion) O 70 80 90 lOO ll.0 120 3.0 3. Personal * (Unit: 100 million) 2. Z 2. K /* N / N 2' 2% — Actual , / — Estimated / Kls - l, 35 + .03032 º .027613 * * |/ R Tº o 8l. O —4— - 1929 lººl l933 1935 l937 l939 19ll 2-10440 2-10440 1935 | ł k. Dryfgoods and nºtions | (Uni; : 100 millibn) | 15 8|- $o 6 ** —w- * - @ (e $4. O Jo Q 3S" $s sº $1. Jº 4 $1. > Gross National Product is (Unit: l #: O ~sr- A. -—r- O 60 7O 8O 90 lOO ll.0 120 1.01 flººm b-e Dry •l. and º (Unit: 100 million) 9 6 - * • . " SS • ... ". . 2. N ~~~ 2ſ- N 4. \ G. Actual k--- Estimatºd x1=1.57 .0754x2- .2508x3 3. R= .986 O - l929 1931 1933 1937 l939 l94l — gº - T#6t 626T. 4,26T 926T. 226T. T26T. 63%; 8x6692 +370080' +tod. 993 --> -- _2~ ..—-> ~ --- T –– ST (uo;[[Tu Odt : 4 Yun) º: estlob atqa.Imp gue S "g -mºr- O& O2T OTT OOT O6 O8 O4. O9 C e SNr-lo (aottt ſalt 47um) 4 on pord Teutº ſº a N S Solţ) * •: s: g £r ºf | * ut * st (g - * --OT gT . . . . (uołttºm oot ºwn) | * > saurus ſurn; esnoh etournpiues •g O2 OwyOT-2 OWºOT-2 Tw8T 626 T 4,26T. 926T. 226T T26T 626T. —a O _L--~~H2-- % * N _2F- NL — — ` 2” 2 ..º- O36 =\{ * ¥7335-2705757 ºf TTET; paqetſ T 3 SI ---- N & Tengoy - N §s (uoittyu ook ; 47 un) “ pua sely, hueuewetāsū ("9 9 O2T OTT OOT O6 O9 Ob O9 O —u O (uottty q t : *tum) ée º, - 4 othp OJ & TéUO Tº e N S SOJ:0 a €e *** O º 1ſt tº º º er w" ºf mºs x 2 •, bº \t * du g *\t (uo'ſ Tºur 00I 47Pm) sequt wº 30 JST w-fries •9 7. rºl." Car ** Paft s and alº. (Uni: ; 100 milli º ºr ~ *_2^ k $4 ?? Y=-,449+,0537): ran .953 o?" —a y - I - @ $1. Gross National Product (Unit 1 billion) 60 70 8O 90 lCO ll.0 2-10440 I2O Durable Goods - \ *!. Household Furniture O - (Unitt 100 million) 29 @ 9 * *0 \ .." Q 3. 3% * † is * - - 6 ** | 3a– ** 3 He *::: Nati fº , . Unit; l on) °ks—4. 75 #- 30–I: 12 le | Household Furniture ." (Units 100 million) 9 rº 2 6 — * 3 ===####### - ICl < −2.90 % e 7x2-ellil 23 R = le.980 - 1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 lºº? 19ll 2-10440 - iº - (units loo 2e Lloor on) 21 in *g º' _T * 31, LT:... { © __" LT ** Y = −le660 % eO635X r is .919 Gross Mati Product Nºw g (Unit; l. on) w 5'-- 70 90 LOO lio 129 3, Miscellaneous +: House (Units million) — ~- t ** O — wº 3. _` → _2^ 27 31. LT is sy ** A _*T n Y = -l.731 / .103x A. Tº me e *:::::::tºr *~ - Unit; º 5* 60 70 90 100 ll() 120. 2-10440 - 97. - tist test ozt owwot-2 666t 196T %6t 666"I ézéto º: * {{ “reno’ - #1330' + solji-,-3 peºwntºsa -- ‘Tunqoy 23- S. º 2 !” ,” e’ A * * * z’ * sº 1}' ——ºr 9 wº (uo;[Tºm Oot|tºpun) snquireddy 3upſooo r 3up queH 17 9 - Ol o OTT OOT O6 O8 AN- (uoyTITQ| T : qſum) wonpold twuprava ssorb QS • ** * * tº, 4% Of sº * “, - jº, * (uo;[Tºm OOT #3p}ºn) snquireddy Fupſooo pue Fuyaneh “l * * * * . . ; - * - 67 - Thét 666T 196T 5¢6t CE6t tgöt 626T TT5° = H O *rīgo" / ºrzcho” y |ugh"- sty poº, £I Tºy 21. 21 2 – 9 wº (uoptiºn OOT #3rºn) souTuouſ Ruipmes pure seulpudun ~f~ •g 9 oat ott OOT O6 09 Ol O9 Nº (uo;[Trq T 14Tun) * , | 3 oupoid Tºwn scoº) tº ! { * - ©º e sº st ** b66 *: ** .# O l,0. (wºrrºw oot *rub) -new “r. --~~~f~, * Ołł'OT-2 • O9 - OyºCI-2 tléI 69.6T 196T 59.6T £66T T66t 626E 986* = H e trillºo"; ºxzzo M 999- sty { peºg;I = - so ow C D 2. - - S. N__ T L’ N * \ __ `s— ==Prº* p-- & º sº T 14ſun) seous pT pTo Teoraestº -9 t OZT OTI OOT O6 09 Ol A 9. (uority: T 14ſum) ". 3 outposſeſ Tºtº Geo.IO t; . ** ** ld © 6s sº 4t 2: Lt s: Öğ" % (top ITpm bot 84 run) *** pTo H -" •g 1st – sº - 51 - l; - 7. Other tº: *- (Udit: 10 million) 3 ( _a^T *AL w - t º 5 f *34 º Y = -.5ll + .030X P g ,917 Gross Natiohal Product O * - (Unit: l $illion) O 60 70 8O 90 lOO ll.0 l2O 8 s 8. China, Glassware, Tableware, add Household Utilities (Unit: 100 million) - _-T 6 69 _T 4. ‘e La T ‘sſ "st s: - -T. A9 - **2. __3t- $5. l; H - *** 2 Y = le 385 + .0ll, Y P = .876 Gross'Natidnal Product, • (Unit: l billion) O Hº- O 60 - 70 8O 90 lCO ll.0 l2O 2-lC440 - 52 - 12 r 9. Rahio apparath and Phonographs 4. (Unit; 100 million) 9 *: - *f 6 3/ 3) O #p 3% 29 t -º- • Jº 57 3 * 11. af * 31, - Gross Nati Product O Ps (Units l billion) O 70 8O 90 LOO llO , l2O 12 9. Radio ** and Phonographs (Unit: 100 million) |%. ...A 21,”. 2^ \l - Actual - - + Estimated e X1 - -3.034 + ..l.274X2 + .4365X3 O R = .986 * 1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939 l94l 2-10440 - £9 - —x -ºl-4%l 㺺l &I Pºl-ºš - 6L6° E. H. £xcedz - ºxgutti + gro”- = ſty pequºuſ;3|SCI - - - z 2^ .* N 24 7 2^ . 9. (uor OT #3Tuh) N sue#10 pub sougpº "CT \\ 8 OTT OOI —%—º–%—º—sº º: ) | - - - 4onpora Tuuorºen Fsozo •f - * . wi -ºš - ºf *—il— | st e; et (uo; by Oyºot-3 • 5l - ºlls alº- #:- _T KUnit; 10 million) : 5) _* @ 3 { L^ - \ $º 97 º: #o | * |º __T 2 Leº 3* Lºſ Y = -. 792 + .OAIX : r = .956 1—a. Grobs National Product, 0 ->} (Unit: 1 billion) s O 60 70 8O 90 LOO 110 - 120 h l29 |Cleoks and Watches (Units 100 on) 3 ’2 *_ *2. _Tº __” 2. 3% l _T ºx cº- - 4 - _*~ Ys -.848 * .029)K * §s I c. .958; *::: Nati Product Unit; 1 billion) O L-NN —-ar— 5's 60 70 80 90 100 ll.0 120 - 55 - 13. and 8terling silkerware (Units 100 million) 1] | 39 - | 3. #o t * 31 3% 37 3% 2* 3% O 3, Gross Nati Product - & . (Units 1 killion) { 60 70 80 90 100 ll.0 120 13, Jewelry and |-- Silverware ted —shol / *a-assº $25 1931 1937 1939 19; - 99 - Tiét 69.6T 196T 99.6T £9.6T Tø6T 626T. O 996* = H £x8990 - |2X6600' + T37 =TY pequurſash --- Tenqow. (uoſ TTTuſ OOT : qſum) Jaqqew peºuT.Id eToo.In(I Jeuqo pure fe • ‘It OZT OTT OOT O6 O8 Ol O9 (uoTTTTg f : qſum) 3ompoud Ibu;OT38 N sso.IO •e S *: _Sº 7 *.*f; At alſº h dº." R. O 1. OS Ö (uo;[[Tºm OOT : qſum) - * poºuT.I.I * rouaq pue snoog r f - 19 - TV6T 666T 1961 966t £66T. TÉ6t 626T. - - - - -T- | Q) d . 2 936° Tº: - & D T- + O39° X poqūurºsºt - se - 9W = 16 – L-T -N - T 2- Šs ze ae 2% * 9 ...A Z N N º N N. Nº. 6 (uoritſu OT 14ſiºn) quotidpmbº 3Upºpº "gt —A - I 2T OTI OOT O6 08 Ol *—SA – (uoritya t +4 Nº. 4 oripold TauopºsN BEO.I.O Af •f sº QC Oſ, f ºſt ---, O 5te © Altº al * (Ø - 1. cº –-a- Er (HopTTFul OT ||Pun) qfloudpmbº 3Uphraſſ "gt zt Cºot-2 - 58 - 2.5– 2. d ul- k- sº and opedia Appliances • - (Unit: 100 million) - O - %) ** sº 3P sº ſº a; sy ** * - !" : Gross Nati Product (Unite llbillion) bºy" 9 IOO ll.0 12 2.5 - - 16. -- —l. Surgical and Orthopédic ~! JA (Unit; 100 million) ‘le 269 .# - Złº 2. les S^ ~ 2. < \\ 2^ N - e’ - N 22° º ::::: * - - - Es ted le.9 S ––42 *1: 2104.0137x2-0221x3 | º - 69 - ITST 69.6T 1661 396t 996T T96T. sº T36° - QI $xzz19°-3XCII’ſºlto"g = |x peº. Gº G-2 º' W º t ...—FTTS . . . . * * * ..~ N. wº `s| - L → e” 9 N (uopt[Tu of $4Tun) N geuoqsquiol, pure squeumitoR lT 9T - Ol O9 O OzT OTT OOT O6 O8 Sr-10 (uo;TTrait 14 Fun) 3ompoad twºotºwn asoap t! & ſº o; 56 º -st *t al 76. +? 9 º | !r cº 2T | (uopt[ful of $4Tun) | } feuoqsquoi f squeumaon "LT Oyj/OI-2 Oyºot-2 Tºlé.T 666T L96T 966.T. cºst T66T ézé; 996 - *. 9xplón'-2xingtºlóg"g-- TY \ pequurpºs Tºnºo *--~~~ N N N 2 * ~" 2 ” ...” _* N-2 (uopTTºm bl 4Tum) e3e33h I "BT O2T OTI OOT O6 O8 Ol 3. . O9 -s: --- ** º at- - tº tº, le . ** •?, O SV 4% - º, . (3) •º (uo;TIrºn OT tº fun).” . cºusani •gt ºf - - 6l - 19. Wheel gººds 9 ~. Toys and sºrts pment (Units 100 million) - - _T | *40 º LT_^ * - 3, ~ 237 LT *so - | . .” __T *3. _^ *35 %2. ** "sº - l – wº- Y is ~.3924.035x I gº •906 Gross Nati Product 9-N- - (Unit: 1 lion) . O 60 70 8O 90 lOO ll.0 l2O l 2O. *: Cars (Unit; 1 billion) 3 O #7 6) * ºt "...o : 2 º **u. • 20 | ** 5 *4 's °, t ^4 l!— **sa O Gross Nati Product Ol—º- (Unit: llbillion) 60 70 80 90 100 ll O 12O OTI 02T OOT O6 O9. Ol. N. O . ~10 (uo;[Trq T 14Tun) 39mpo.13 Tºorººn sco.ro $$. 44. ºt * * * * 5 sº $4 0. **. lº, ( \%. - º Ot. , sº, * ~r- #t (uopt[Tº t tº Tun) 3.Juro emºveta “we -loz Thét 696T. J.96T. 966.T. €66T Tć6T. sº - 296° = º'-ºwrºot: = T. pequºpºs: - - - Tunqo ====N T N (uo SJUO J. ;q T sqpum) uessed 'oz || • £9 • owot-e TºlóT 696T 126t 99.6t £96T tº 6t &; de- £retºl" - ºkolzz. 8.448- -ty peºwurrass — ~ Tenqoy -14 N \ \ * \}. \ t W N 19t (uo;[Tºm t tºpºn) 3.Judo-ernºwetā ‘tz Bºuipment. - @ a- — - —T- . ‘. . . . . ‘l 1. Factory Machinery - - sº ‘sy 40 \ 4. ºx. tº J al—ºx1– P Y = -2.244 k .079x | r = •963 Gross Natiohal Product (Unit l billion) Ol-N- - - . - O * , 60 70 80 90 IOO 110 l2O 20 ** Mining Machinery (Unit; 10|million) 15 • —r- ** Pr yo Pº * "se º >T $g 5 —r—- } - Y = -8.41 k .195X ! - $1 r s •894 w $a. - Gross National Product - (Unit: llbillion) ol-ºr- O 60 70 - 80 90 IOO 110 120 - 65 - 2C 3. Const al-ºl- (Unit: 10 hillion) 15 - —ºr $o *o 33 - 10 O *Z sy { J/ $y _T 3s. 5 2’ e 3a. 3% - Y = -ll.904 |A .274X *s I = ,967 3 Gross Natidºnal Product, (Unit: ſ billion) O L->}- O 60 70 - 8O 90 - LOO 110 120 20 lº. General and Miscellaneous Machinery (Unif: 100 million) 15 LO _T 3D-T - 4/o .*so -* | - © • 31 s? 5, S’ * i LaT Y = -5.276 / .l/AX * _**T $ I gº •958 LT33 Gross National Product - (Unit: l billion) 0 ->}- - O 60 70 80 90 LOO l10 l2O 2-10440 20 y” - - - ‘5e Engine; and intº + f - | (Unit t| 10 million - ** , 15F 10 * vº- §e _+T 77 21-T ** - § : y $2 -5.668 •l25X -T Jſ is y r tº •948 _*~ 34 Gross Natiohal Product - (Unit; 1 billion) O 60 70 8O 90 LOO ll.0 l2O 6. Pumps Pumping Equipment (Uni} : 100 million) 2D-º’ſ l 2– 'se II:=T. Y = -l.158 A .031X —w-rºr 9 *A r a .953 Q e Gross Natiºnal Product Ol-ºl- (Unit; 1 billion) O 60 70 80 90 100 ll.0 120 2-10440 w - 19 - TV6T 666"I A,66T. 966.T £66T I661 626T. £76 = H 2}- - - - p £xg780°:2X69.0°/z”- =Tx * —S. peºiſ;3.83 - - - SSS Qow 'N 2^N. \\ O 2 -- * & Y- * 2 * e” *s e’ y” N .* * = . | • g *- 9 */, |: - (uoſiſ IPui OOT #3;un) O sepaosseo.ow pub stoo.I. duTuoan 1. —r- º O°OT O&T OTT OOT O6 O8 0/. 09 , 0 *—- « -Se- O (uo'ſ ITFG tº : 3pum) *r |40mpora Tsuqpqan ssorp - ! ſt $º. - _59. o: s: O —i- lſ 1. g"z | (0. - f r O 44- O°g g’. - (uo;[[Tut]OOT #4Tun) } separosseo.ow |pub stoo.I. efruown *1. w o°OT owwot-2 - 68 - 8, Electrical Apparatus and Equipment • , (UHits 100 million) - ; $1 $1 it's. 2.5 _Tºx O Lº | Y m -4.094 # •l002X 3&e 3} r = .960 J9 Gross Natiºnal Product (Unit; 1 ||billion) O L->}- O - 60. 70 8O 90 , 1OO ll.O 120 4. 9, Farm łº Equipment (Unit; 100 million) 3H . _T Ç 35 11– - Hy; *A* - 7) Y = -1.744|4 .046X ** - . Iº gº •950 . Gross National Product & (Unit: llbillion) O ->\- - O 60 70 80 90 1OO 110 120 - 69 - TV6T 66.61 Lé6t 966.T. ££6I test &st * == —T O - - OL6° ºn N 8x900'ſ?x6770%rz-z- sty - pequurpass Tūnqow. [. * 9. ..' º : 3puſ) º SJI *Obºlº, • OT ! -v- # oft OTI OOT O6 08 —* *— sº (uo;[Tra]T : 4Pun) qonpord opºan SSOJO ** | **, $4. º ——w I 14, sº g - •: + G -º-º-º: 4t ** * 4 •4 $ © * , H- -Hø º N | (aortiful oot *4Tun) sºoqoe.r.I “ent -i- - -—ly Oyºot-2 | ll. Office Machin | - (Unit; 100 million) 2.0— # _T • ' | - _` O . *7 º, l,5 -y [. - 34, , T 3. 1.0 - - \ - - Dº $1 Y - -.658 4. .02l). - r = .938 t Gross National Product, 4 (Unit: l billion) 60 - 70 8O 90 - 100 llo - &;” 5 - * 12. Nonresidential Furniturb and ** | - (Uhit: 100 million) - k O $o yo 3 H ** $7 ** *sº 2 ºt **** **. *3% * - - º Gross *† Product O °º —(Unit: l billion) O 60 - 70 8O 90 lOO ll.0 l2O - 11 - ozt OUT OOI O6 O8 Ol - ºi: : qſuſ.) - qonpold TeutoTºun sso.10 g|T6* * x X3TO" & 9:00°- * I “. .” —w" W, . *. ºf wº 4% **, _* < •. LT _T •º.º. |º (uoſittſu, OOT º saetºsauoo staeºng’ ‘gt Thét 696T 196T 99.6T 99.6T T96T $2; 6* = \ ~ * 8x9360° - $osso. + Tøg|T- = [x *s pºpuur;483 --- *_2 (uopTTºm OC pus e-maru.m queuidymbºl t = qun) a tºrquepts * •zt 9 O*T | 9 °z Oyº OT-2 - 12- | - M. Professional and Scientific Equi lm. - ** (Urit: 100 million) - l. - + al=3 - H. O 3e . _- e? "st \ Y * , -.707 + .02OX gº = .926 •gºe # - --- I” st 92 Tº * Gross National Product, O L-º- (Unit: l billion) O 60 70 8O 90 l()0 llo l2O .k. (Unit: 100 million) d 3 $1 "st. 3 * l == • ?? ſº Tºº Y R -.5% * .025x r -, .995 - Gross National Product () --> - —& (Unit: 1 billion) O 60 70 8O 90 lOO ll() l2O - 73 - lO i.e., ***::::::::::: (Unit; 100 mill ion) Balıkent * * * * * # T . • 30 _-T • *sº ...A-13 $1 * - - dº ºb —w- ** - tº T s -.691, * •Ol.9X. F. .969 Gross *::::: Product | - \ (Unit: l billion O 60 70 8O 90 lOO ll.0 l2O 17. Wagons and Carts * (Unit: l million) *u O *0 $4. i is $1 "p (3) *** $s **. * #1 Gross National Product Unit : l billion -\\ ( ) O ". 60 70 8O 90 ll.0 lOO l2O * . . ººcº, - - 7k - _` - l8. ºr ~~~~ * Unit; 1 billion) it & 1.5 ºte *1 2 ** ‘so ?" Y U. - .755 * .02l K r = .919 . Gross National Product (Unit: l billion) O ^ 5's 60 70 8O 90 lCO ll.O l2O 20 l9. :::::::: (Unit: l million) 15 H- UE) | 10 H *0. → - _PT • SQ _T *$o * *! º 5 _-ſº sº y - -1.87 .139x T *** r = .920 ‘es Gross National Product (Unit: l billion) O PUN- O 60 70 8O 90 lOO ll.O l2O - glº- Thét 6¢6t 126t 99.6T 99.6T T96T 62% £x0930° - - + tigº, T =TY \ pe 4sq. -- Tenqow \ - A- T \ \ \ M / 2 N \ 2 z 2 * N 26. / N]2 / - / / t (uofttim dot : arum) © s.reo peo.ITTº pure seapºouſooo'ſ "Oz —- * v - . - 3 * - OZI OTI OOT O6 O8 Ol. O9 O (uotttz; t arun) gt qompoad Tepopºwn ssoap •eº • wrº- lº, fit 34. w tº. 4. ** | } } £4– i &r ..l. 4s. l | O •s, ºr - (uoittſu, COT : qīum) † savo peoating pus seafºomooot 'oz, - 76- (U * and l, t; 10 million) (º) 20 F- ~~~ . • 99 - | ***be 10 | O ~ : , _T $s." Y = -l6 235 * • 35l X . % r = .95 - • - …};" | %. * Gross National Product . # (Unit: l billion) - os-à 70 8O 90 loo llo 120 l;0 F 22. Aircraft (Unit; 10 millior) 30k ºte 2O. F. * $1 lC) O . *S$ $1 *u. O * Pe *** $6 - - º: **** ** $6 - Gross Natiºnal Product 0 ºn- —l (Unit; 1 ºilº 9 bºs- 60 70 8O 90 1OO llC) l2O - 77 - 30 - — f 22. Aircraft - .' (Unit: 10 million) * © 2O . Al- 2^ e’ *nº lO - 2-1 S. gº' N. ^ 2 < O - * === —=—t A tº º º Actuals --- Estimated R º .8 5 T*1525 l93l 1933 1935 1937 1939 l9kl s/ Expenditures for aircraft, ships and boats for 1941 are combined to avoid disclosure. « 2-l'O440 - 78 - Private Construction 1. Residenţial ū * (Unit: 100 million) - r 2^ - #o _sº 35 £o J/ 3r 3. º - _^ . - is- 32. J Y = –26.03 + •53X O sº } r 3– .917 Gross National Product - (Unit: #: 60 70 80 90 lCO ll.0 l2O 2. Other Private Construction (Unit: 100 million). 13| so fºr 3. s? *o º, jº 96 • 33. °34' O sº Gross Natidnal Product 29 (Unit: |l billion) 60 70 80 90 lOO ll.0 l2O - 79- 8O . f– . 2. Other law. Construction . . . . . (Unit: 100 million) - 60 N * - . Actual s l;0 “S * º Gº Gº S ted . r R º .987 + - } . .." - - ..” .* * 20 - 2+s=– * S-2T - - O Y r Yºr rºwsr----w - 1929 l931 1933 l935 lº27 l939 19ll 4l;0 - * - - – -— - * Change Uniº, Tlö0 million) * 42O - - - - #o . 2? 37 O º 34) 3s- (A O 3% 3e 32 33 Asºº –2O º $ $1. . . . - r 3ross * Product - (Unit; 1 billion)