CONGRESSIONAL RESEARCH . SERVICE Universi of Missburi - Columbia ' OF ||||||||||||||| IWI IIIIIIII ||||I||||||||||l|| Ill ‘III CONGRESS 010-1038 1037 ENERGY CONSERVATION: TRUCK FUEL ECONOMY ISSUE BRIEF NUMBER IB78048 AUTHOR: Banberger, Robert L. Environment and Natural Resources Policy Division THE LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CONGRESSIONAL RESEARCH SERVICE MAJOR ISSUES SYSTEM DATE ORIGINATED ggggggzg DATE UPDATED Qggggggg FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CALL 287-5700 06 2'4 cRs- 1 1B73ou3 UPDATE-O6/24/80 l§§QE..2.E=.E.I.1jl.'El-’.QF. While the fuel economy of passenger automobiles has increased by more than one-third since the 1974 model year, some analysts believe the fuel savings may be offset by a significant increase in truck utilization and truck fuel consumption. The Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA, P.L. 9u—163), signed into law in December 1975, established specific fuel economy standards for passenger automobiles (PAS) below 6,000 pounds, but also authorized ‘the secretary of Transportation to establish standards for non-passenger automobiles (NPAS) below 6,000 pounds gross vehicle weight (GVW) and for NPAs between 6,000-10,000 pound GVW. In March 1977 the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) established fuel economy standards for 1979 model year (MY) non-passenger automobiles. At issue between the regulatory agency, the manufacturers, and involved public interest groups in the establishment of the standards has been the economic and technological feasibilities and the practicality of the proposed standards, and what level of fuel efficiency is the maximum feasible one at which pending and future standards should be established. Most recently, NHTSA has issued the final standards for model year 1982 and has invited comment on its proposals for MY83-85. During hearings on provisions of the proposed National Energy Plan which would have an impact upon automobiles and fuel consumption, several witnesses cited a Department of Transportation estimate that the passenger automobile average fuel economy standards established by the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) would achieve, by 1985, a 17% reduction in passenger car gasoline consumption below 1976 consumption. In assessing the National Energy Plan, and the likelihood of achieving the Plan's goal of reducing total gasoline consumption in 1985 by 10% of total 1976 gasoline consumption, the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) observed that truck fuel consumption could not grow more than 13% by 1985 or the net reduction in gasoline consumption -- passenger car fuel savings offset by growing van and light-duty truck fuel consumption -- would fall below 10%. The concern of some analysts that future growth rates of total motor vehicle gasoline consumption may be heavily influenced by activity in the NPA sector would appear to be well-founded. The statistics clearly indicate an acceleration in the growth rate of annual truck vehicle miles traveled and sales of heavier light-duty truck models. The table below summarizes the growth in vehicle miles by personal passenger vehicles and trucks. From 1970-1978, total personal passenger vehicle miles traveled rose 32.5% while total truck vehicle miles traveled during the same period increased 62.1%. The Department of Transportation statistics are based upon vehicle type and make no discrimination between personal and cargo utilizations of NPAs. It is likely that a substantial percentage of the nearly two-thirds increase in total truck vehicle miles traveled can be attributed to increased personal utilizations of trucks. PERSONAL PASSENGER VEHICLES AND TRUCKS: TOTAL VEHICLE MILES TEAVELED CBS- 2 IB78O 48 UPDATE-O6/24/80 (millions) Personal Passenger Vehicles Trucks 1973* 1,190,231 307,905 1977 1,101,215 329,055 1976 1,095,u52 306,950 1975 1,050,072 27u,u5u 197a 1,013,068 257,519 1973 1,036,455 257,107 1972 1,0o3,u93 2 259,735 1971 950,155 227,039 1970 900,992 21u,670 * Preliminary The considerable attention paid by policy analysts to substantial increases in the sales of recreational vehicles and light duty trucks for personal use has given the impression that increases in truck fuel consumption and truck fleet miles traveled might be attributed principally to these types of trucks. Sales of light duty trucks (vehicles 10,000 pounds gross vehicle weight or less) as a percentage of total truck sales have grown from 79.8% of total new truck sales in 1970 to 88.8% of sales in 1978. an increase of roughly 11.3% over the period. The significant increase in the number of vehicles sold in these weight classes since 1970--independent of percentages--has contributed to their greater visibility and accounts in part for an assumption that these vehicles account for increases in truck fuel consumption. However, a report txncongress from the General Accounting Office, released in June 1978, noted that increased truck fuel consumption is the result of increased sales and utilizations of trucks in all weight classes. Truck registrations increased from 21.2 million vehicles in 1972 to 29.5 million in 1977, an increase of roughly 39.2%. Light truck fuel consumption accounted for about u2% of total truck fuel consumption in 1976, equivalent to roughly 13% of total motor vehicle fuel consumption. In 1977, heavy duty trucks representing one-fifth of the total fleet were responsible for roughly 12.6% of total motor vehicle fuel consumed. Heavy duty vehicles represent a large percentage of total truck fuel consumption despite the fact that they represent a smaller percentage of the total truck fleets because they are characteristically driven more vehicle miles per year than light duty trucks and have much lower levels of fuel-efficiency than lighter trucks. While annual per truck vehicle miles traveled actually decreased 10.3? between 1972 and 1978, and truck fuel economy increased, on average, 2.1% over the same period, total truck miles increased about 3fl% and total truck fuel consumption increased 33.u%. CRS- 3 IB78008 UPDATE-06/20/80 SURVEY STATISTICS OF FUEL CONSUHPTION AND VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED BY TOTAL TRUCK FLEET ‘ 1972 1970 1976 1977 1978* Fuel consumed (million gals) 30,178 31,226 35,890 37,960 00,271 Truck miles of travel (billios) 259.7 267.5 308.0 329.5 307.9 Truck registrations (millions) 21.2 20.6 27.8 29.6 N/A Average annual miles traveled per truck 12,229 10,861 11,086 11,105 10,970 Average fuel consumption per truck (gallons) 1,006 1,268 1,292 1,280 1,270 Miles per gallon 8.06 8.57 8.58 8.68 8.60 * Preliminary N/A = Not Applicable THE EPA FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDS: MY1979 AND MY 1980-81 In addition to establishing specificzfuel-economy standards for passenger vehicles under 6,000 pounds gross vehicle weight, the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) authorized the Secretary of Transportation to establish standards for non-passenger automobiles (NPAs) below 6,000 pounds gross vehicle weight (GVW), but also authorized the Secretary to establish standards for HPAs between 6,000-10,000 pounds GVW. For purposes of establishing fuel economy standards, NHTSA defines a passenger automobile (PA) as any automobile manufactured primarily for use in the transportation of not more than ten individuals. The classification "non-passenger automobile" (NPA) is described by the agency as a "residual" category of all other automobiles, including pickup trucks, cargo and passenger vans, jeeps, and campers. The sales of trucks under 10,000 pounds historically accounted for over 80% of all truck sales. However, as the table below indicates, the sales mix, which one favored NPAs below 6,000 pounds GVW, has shifted to favor NPAs between 6,000-10,000 pounds. While factory sales of trucks over 6,000 pound GVH represented 25.6% of total truck sales in 1973, sales of trucks in this weight category in 1977 represented 50.7% of total truck sales in 1978. 1978 1977 1976 1975 1974 1973 1972 50111308 3 AND FACTORY SALES OF TRUCKS, 6, 000 Pounds GVW A or less 1,33u,392 3u.1% 1,305,788 37.5 1,318,492 43.3 1,101,242 46.8 1,466,586 56.7 1,754,254 58.3 1,497,630 59.1 6,000-10,000 Pounds GVH 2,139,644 54.7% 1,802,692 51.7 1,400,947 46.0 951,710 40.5 696,248 26.9 758,236 25.2 598,813 23.6 Mcmor Vehicle Manufacturers Association of the U.S., ( Z§2L§_§2@-£i92;2§ . 1979 Edition) IB78048 BELOW 6000-10,000 POUNDS GVW PERCENTAGE OF SALES BY GVW TO TOTAL SALES (includes imports by U.S. Manufacturers) Total Truck Sales 3,913,902 3,485,546 93,044,123 2,351,057 2,586,590 3,008,258 2,533,918 UPDATE-06/24/80 Inc. CRS- 5 IB780fl8 UPDATE-O6/2Q/80 On Mar. 1a, 1977, NHTSA issued a final rule establishing average fuel economy standards for NPAS of 6,000 pounds gross vehicle weight (GVW) or less for the 1979 model year; The standard for four-wheel drive, non-passenger, jeep—type vehicles is 15.8 miles per gallon (!P9)- The standardi for all other non-passenger automobiles, including pickup trucks and vans, is 17.2 mpg. The agency noted that the final standards were based "primarily on the ’ domestic manufacturers’ production plans for 1979" (42 FR 13808) due to the short production leadtime remaining when the final rule was issued. Nonetheless, the agency estimated that 102.5 million gallons of gasoline will be saved annually by the 1979 NPA fleet over the 1976 fleet. The estimated savings is roughly equivalent to 6,700 barrels of oil per day. 1'§§..§£9EQ§§.‘1..§.¥.12§QZl9.§1..§2£..E1l§l-.}3.QQB9!I..§§§Q§§£§.§.: In December 1977. the NHTSE issued a notice of proposed rulemaking to establish fuel economy standards for model year 1980-81 NPAs. As proposed, the MY1980—81 standards would include vehicles up to 8,500 pouns GVW, and would either limit or completely exclude "captive imports" in the computation of the average fuel economy of each manufacturer's so-called domestically produced vehicle fleet. Captive imports are automobiles manuactured abroad and imported by the major domestic automobile manufacturers for sale in the United States. EPCA provided that captive imports would be treated separately from domestically manufactured automobiles in computing fleet average fuel economy of passenger automobiles because the average fuel economy of captive imports has tended to be higher than that of domestically manufactured models, and inflates .the average fuel economy of a domestic manufacturer's fleet if included as part of the domestically produced vehicle fleet. However, in determining compliance with the HY1979 NPA fuel economy standards, NHSTA decided to include captive imports in the computation of a manufacturer‘s domestic fleet average fuel economy due to the short production lead-time remaining, and because the manufacturers‘ own prediction of the fuel economy of their MY1979 NPA fleets -- on which the MY1979 standards were based -- included captive imports. For MY1980-81, NHTSA proposed to figure the average fuel economy of captive imports separately from that of the domestically produced fleet, and considered two possible schedules for implementation: (1) complete separation of domestic and captive import NPAS beginning in MY1980, or (2) a phased schedule that would exclude all captive imports from a manufacturer's domestic average by HY1982. The proposed MY1980 NPA fuel economy standards were 16.2 mpg for four-wheel drive NPAs and 19.2 mpg for two-wheel drive NPAs if captive imports were to be excluded from manufacturer's domestic averages, or 16.6 mpg for four-wheel drive NPAS and 19.7 mpg for two-wheel drive NPAs if captive imports were included. The respective standards for uY1981 were proposed as 17.7 mpg and 20.5 mpg (captive imports excluded) and 18.0 mpg and 21.0 mpg (captive imports included). The other significant break with previous fuel economy rulemaking in the proposed uY80-81 standards was the inclusion of heavier NPAs up to 8,500 oounds GYW. The agency contended that truck use surveys indicated that a substantial percentage of the utilization of trucks between 6,000-8,500 pounds GVH was personal.and recreational rather than strictly commercial, and that there is a significant potential fuel savings in non-commercial utilization of vehicles in this weight category. cns- 6 IB780lI8 UPDATE-06/211/80 Moreover, the agency noted that it had indicated previously that these heavier vehicles would be included in the agency's rulemaking when it became possible to generate fuel economy data for NPAS over 6,000 pounds. Fuel economy data are derived from the EPA tests for vehicle emissions. Because EPA had not yet finalized rules for testing the emissions from vehicles over 6,000 pounds GVW at the time NHTSA proposed the MY79 NPA fuel economy standards, the agency was compelled to exclude vehicles over 6,000 pounds GVW from the HY79 standards. However, EPA will be compiling emissions data for heavier vehicles up to 8,500 pounds GVH commencing with the 1979 model year, and it will be possible for the agency to evaluate compliance awith fuel economy standards in subsequent model years for NPAS between 6,000-8,500 pounds GVW. When promulgating standards, NHTSA is required to show, among other things, that the standards will capture significant fuel savings. The agency estimated a potential annual fuel savings from the standards as proposed ranging from .30 to 1.38 billion gallons of gasoline, depending upon the mpg values chosen for the final rulemaking. The estimated savings compute to a daily savings of 22,500-90,200 barrels of oil per day. Estimated savings over the lifetime of the HY1980-1981 NPA fleet would range from 11.2 to 16.5 billions gallons of fuel, but the agency believed a lifetime savings of not less than 12 billion gallons was a reasonable expectation. Bea_1<_=ri9r.1-L9._Lhe.E.r9122§e