LC 14%/Z > NO LOMiG‘E}l. :.r— ‘ PRO P ~ 770 g \ OF GL3“;- LIBRARV Washington iJn§vs.rs.§’E; ‘\§"l"~l'~' F“-t.-‘H-‘v ‘.:.v~zv:«_v'. ' '-—‘.9.~ : .~.a'.'.‘:v.-t-.,'-1:; 'Adl'2‘.‘.‘)',~..a" $183‘;- 5 ‘, .. . I . .. .. 1.. ,- ,. rv,‘.~_\;.,,‘.!,_._: 4:,‘ _ ~ T . ., _" ,'_r ‘,a}‘\, I t " ,- 1: \ ‘. )4 5', "4‘ac;.‘("lfl . ‘ _ x “ >‘ .‘.‘1~','_:‘,;"v%V 7 ' . 1»: ~§ , _ '. ;.. :2; ‘n. I-‘,.:.«' g ‘ '-"' . J .- .. us‘ ~' 5 ; 7’~“:' F‘ ' - y ;. ~..;s.3 a*v=’§iO. { ‘__¢‘»~ um. ,-9.-. _,.,»‘ -.-V- sums.» . . f #1352097 <6 -----"""%"" ’__fB$:20€<€§,. ‘V~C,ONGRES..SIONAL we sat - b RESEARCH - « mm W1! in ilfiritxiiiflfigyfgni I uiimnm 010-1 03 EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT STATISTICS ISSUE BRIEF NUMBER IB7708l AUTHOR: Labor Section Economics Division THE LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CONGRESSIONAL RESEARCH SERVICE MAJOR ISSUES SYSTEM DATE ORIGINATED 07/11/77 DATE UPDATED O7/15/82 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CALL 287-5700 0716 . V7 0 5‘ '.«° -V '5 ' ‘I .w . Eu .. o. C .5» .” :-1.- ., .1 tn .l.l I « . 4 . 34. I tfiév "T4 CRS— 1 IB7708l UPDATE-O7/l5/82 ISSUE DEFINITION With labor force growth spurred by the population expansion of the post world War II period and by the entry of larger numbers of women, employment *and unemployment data have taken on new dimensions. First, as a primary indicator of the state of the economy, the unemployment level is an important consideration in the development of national economic policy. Second, with federal legislation making increasing use of unemployment data in formulae used for distributing an assortment of program funds, these data become more significant to federal, state and local officials. Thus, the availability of current, more accurate and reliable employment and unemployment data both for the nation as a whole and for State and local jurisdictions, has become a crucial issue in Government circles. BACKGROUND AND POLICY ANALYSIS MONTHLY LABOR FORCE SURVEY Most labor force data are gathered by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor through the Current Population Survey of about 60,000 households conducted by the Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce. This information results in the determination of the Llabors force 2 Ystatus of each member of the household surveyed who is 16 years of age or ver during the week of the month containing the 12th day. These data then serve as the basis for estimating national averages. DEFINITION OF "UNEMPLOYMENT" As defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, unemployment includes all persons 16 years of age and over who did not work at all during the survey week, who were available for work during the survey week (except for temporary illness), and who made at least one specific attempt to find work during the prior four weeks. SEASONAL ADJUSTMENTS Nearly all economic phenomena are affected to some degree by seasonal variations. That is, recurring, predictable events which are repeated more or less regularly each year -- changes in weather, school vacations, major holidays, industry production schedules -- can cause significant swings in data if not accounted for. Therefore, seasonal adjustments are required to ‘interpret more accurately short-term economic developments and underlying cyclical trends. Consequently, the monthly unemployment figures for the nation are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The seasonal adjustment procedure involves the redistribution of figures for each vear in such a way that there is no regular pattern .of intra-year (e.g., seasonal) variations in the final seasonally-adjusted series. Thus, the annual sums of the adjusted and unadjusted data are nearly equal. CRS- 2 IB7708l UPDATE-O7/l5/82 DISCOURAGED WORKERS Discouraged workers are persons who report that they want work but are not looking for jobs because they believe they cannot find any. Because they not meet the labor market test -- that is, they are not engaged in active job search -- they are classified as not in the labor force irather than as unemployed. Consequently, these persons do not show up in either civilian labor force figures or in unemployment data published monthly. They are, however, reported separately on a quarterly basis by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as persons not in the labor force but who want a job. These data are further broken down by reasons, sex and color. The discouraged workers data are present in this Issue Brief in Part I, Table I—.5. — CONTENTS OF THIS ISSUE BRIEF This Issue Brief presents five categories of data on the U.S. Labor Force: Part I. A Summary of the most recent month's national averages for the civilian labor force, employment, unemployment, unemployment rate, and discouraged workers. Part II. National average monthly labor force, employment, unemployment, unemployment rate for each of the most recent l3 months. ‘part III.: A review of historical national annual average unemployment rates from 1900 to last year. Part IV. Forecasts of national unemployment rates. Part V. State unemployment figures including the monthly unemployment rate for the preceding calendar year and for each month in the current year, to date, and State annual average unemployment, I976 to l980. SOURCES National Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Dept. of Labor . Div. of Employment and Unemployment Analysis 523-1944 Div. of Industry Employment Statistics 523-1446 Publications: The Employment Situation (Monthly) Employment and Earnings (Monthly) Handbook of Labor Statistics (Annually) Employment and Training Report of the President, 1978 State Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Dept. of Labor Div. of Local Area Unemployment Statistics 523-1913 Publication: State and Metropolitan Area Unemployment (Monthly) CRS- 3 IB77081 UPDATE-O7/15/82 Part I National Employment and Unemployment June, 1982 (Seasonally Adjusted) EMPLOYMENT In June 1982, total employment declined to 99.8 million from 100.1 million last month. The Civilian labor force was 110.2 million in June 1982, decreasing from 110.7 million a month earlier, but, an increase of 1.8 million over the 108.4 million a year ago (June 1981). UNEMPLOYMENT In June 1982 the unemployment rate held steady at 9.5%. This rate is substantially higher than the June 1981 rate of 7.4%. The unemployment rate continues to be at its highest level since 1941, the year the U.S. entered world war II, when the average for the year was 9.9%. The unemployment rate for teenagers was 22.3% in June 1982, decreasing from the 23.1% in May 1982. The June 1982 rate is substantially higher than the 19.2% a year ago The unemployment rate for adult males rose from 8.4% in May 1982 to another postwar high of 8.7% in June.= The June 1982 rate.is notably higher than the 6.1% a year ago (June 1981). The jobless rate for adult women” was‘ ;% in June, decreasing from the 8.3% in May, but substantially higher than the 6.6% of a year ago. The unemployment rate for black workers in June 1982 was 18.5%, decreasing slightly from the previous month's rate of 18.7%. The June 1982 rate is substantially higher than the 15.6% a year earlier (June 1981). The jobless rate for white workers was 8.4% in June 1982, decreasing by only one-tenth of a percentage point from the May 1982 rate of 8.5%. A year ago, however, the white unemployment rate was exactly two percentage points lower at 6.4%. The unemployment rate, not seasonally adjusted, for male Vietnam-era Veterans between 25 and 39 years of age (the majority of the Veterans are in this age bracket) was 9.2% in June 1982; this rate is markedly higher than the 5.5% a year ago (June 1981). The male non-veteran jobless rate, not, seasonally adjusted, for the 25-39 year age group was 8.9% in June 1982, also a substantial increase from the June 1981 rate of 5.9%. The average duration of unemployment for those unemployed in June 1982 was 16.5 weeks, increasingly substantially from the 14.6 weeks in May 1982. The average duration for June 1981 was lower at 14.3 weeks. TABLE I-1 Annual Average June 1982 1981 Seas. Adj. Civilian Labor Force................l08,670,000 110,191,000 Emp1oyed............................100,397,000 99,764,000 Unemp1oyed........................... 8,273,000 10,427,000 CRS- 4 o\° Unemployment Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 7.6 TABLE I-2 Unemployment Rates for Selected Categories Of Workers 1981 Annual Average IB7708l Men, 20 years and over 6.3 Women, 20 years and over 6.8 Both sexes, 16 to 19 years 19.6 White, total 6.7 Men, 20 years and over 5.6 women, 20 years and over 5.9 Both sexes, 16 to 19 years 17.3 Blacks, total 15.5 Men, 20 years and over 13.3 Women, 20 years and over 13.4 Both sexes, 16 to 19 years 41.5 Hispanics, total 10.5 No. unemployed 15 weeks or longer 2.2 (millions) Occupations, all experienced unemployed workers White collar workers“ ‘~ A "4.0 Blue collar workers 10.3 Service workers 8.8 Farm workers 5.1 Industry, wage and salary workers: Nonagricultural private wage and salary workers 7.7 Construction 15.7 Manufacturing 8.2 Transportation and public utilities 5.2 wholesale and retail trade 8.0 Finance and service industries 5.8 Government workers 4.7 Agricultural wage and salary workers 12.0 TABLE I-3 Reasons for Unemployment 1981 Annual Average Lost last job 4,178,000 Left last job 894,000 Reentered the labor force 2,048,000 Seeking first job 959,000 UPDATE-07/15/82 905 o\° June 1982 (S.A.) l\J(I)(D 000 L4)!-‘\'l \J\l\1(D (J'||-Jxlrl-5 l8.5 l7.l l5.0 52.6 13.5 June 1982 (S.A.) 6,302,000, 813,000 2,372,000 1,088,000 CRS- 5 IB7708l UPDATE-07/15/82 TABLE I-4 Unemployment Rates for Male Vietnam-era Veterans (not seasonally adjusted) Annual Average l98l June 1982 Total, 25 years and over 5.9 8.6 25-29 9.9 17.3 30-34 3 5.8 8.4 35-39 4.7 6.9 40 and over 3.6 5.5 NOTE: Seasonally-adjusted data are no longer being provided because the changing age composition of the Vietnam—era veterans’ population distorts the ability to identify seasonality in the series. TABLE I-5 l98l Annual 2nd Qtr. Average 1982 Discouraged workers, Total....................... . l,l03,000 1,497,000, 'Job~market factors (l).-.y 808,000 A» l,075,000 Personal factors (2)..... ‘ 296,000 421,000 Men............... . . . . ... 399,000 586,000 Women.................... 704,000 911,000 White . . . . . . ... . . . . . . ..... 751,000 1,002,000 Black and other.......... 353,000 491,000 (1) Job market factors include "could not find job" and "thinks no job available." (2) Personal factors include "employers think too young or old," "lacks education or training," and "other personal handicaps." CRS- 6 TABLE I-6 Selected Employment Total Employed, 16 years and over IB7708l UPDATE-O7/l5/82 Indicators No. of workers (in thousands) 1981 June l982 Men . . . . . . Women . . . . . White Collar. . Blue Collar . . Service Workers Farm workers. . Nonagricultural Fulltime . . Part-time for economic. reasons. . Part-time for noneconomic reasons. . Industries: 0 Annual Average (S.A.) 98,313 99,764 56,168 56,223 42,145 43,541 51,848 53,586 30,593 29,716 l3,l6O l3,79l 2,711 2.660 72,732 72,662 4,397 5,444 12,316 l2,9l4 CRS- 7 IB7708l UPDATE-O7/15/82 Part II Monthly Data U.S. National Averages, Seasonally adjusted, Current l3—month Period While a one-month change in unemployment is not normally as significant a change as one occurring over a longer time period, monthly unemployment rates are often taken, along with other data, as indicators of short-term economic trends. Also, single month rates are used to compare the state of the economy in one short-term period with another. Table II-l ---------- -—In Thousands--—~~----------~ Total Civilian Total Total Unemployment Labor Force Employed Unemployed Rate~ 1981 Jan. 107,923 99,901 8,022 7.4 Feb. 108,034 100,059 7,955 _7.4 % Mar. 108,354 f_100,405 57,958,, 57.3, Apr. ‘9108,7771 3100,8788 7,899” 7.3 May 109,293 101,045 8,248 7.5 June 108,434 100,430 8,004 7.4 July lO8,688 100,854 7,824 7.2 Aug. 108,818 100,840 7,978 7.3 Sept 108,494 100,258 8,235 7.5 Oct. 109,012 100,343 8,559 8.0 Nov. 109,272 100,172 9,100 8.3 Dec. 109,184 99,513 9,571 8.8 l982 Jan. lO8,879 99,581 9,298 8.5 Feb. 109,155 99,590 9,575 8.8 Mar. 109,345 99,492 9,854 9.0 Apr. 109,548 99,340 10,307 9.4 May llO,666 100,117 10,549 9.5 June 110,191 99,754 10,427 9.5 CRS- 8 IB7708l UPDATE-07/15/82 Part III Historical Unemployment Data, National Averages, 1900 - 1981 Adequacy of Data Although the methodology used to estimate national unemployment was somewhat crude prior to 1940, and since then definitions have changed, a look at historical data still gives indications of trends in joblessness over time for the country as a whole. However, it must be kept in mind that unemployment data published by the Federal Government are estimates computed from data generated by a sample interview conducted under the Current Population Survey (since 1940) which now includes about 45,000 interviewed households in 461 areas throughout the country. Because the data are derived from a sample, they are subject to sampling error. For example, an unemployment rate in the upper 7% range was most likely accurate within a range of two=tenths of 1% either way. The sampling error varies according to the size of the estimate made. For a month—to—month change, the level of measured unemployment must change by at least 170,000 (slightly more than 2% of its level) in order to say with 90% confidence that the level actually prevailing has moved up or down from the previous month. For larger statistical aggregates such as‘ total employment and the civilianx labor‘ force,_ them statistical lerror son the change. is_ relatively much smaller. The unemployment rate, while computed from the second. largest monthly household survey of its type in the world and is some 50 times larger than many national public opinion polls, has been subjected to various criticisms. Some claims are made that it should measure economic hardship while others claim that it ShOL1ld measure potential labor force supply. Since a single‘ unemployment rate cannot fulfill all these objectives, an array of seven different definitions of unemployment have been devised by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. These are labeled: U1 — Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer as a percent of the civilian labor force. 0 U2 - Job losers as a percent of the civilian labor force. U3 - Unemployed household heads as a percent of household head labor force. . U4 — Unemployed full-time jobseekers as a percent of full-time labor force (including those employed part-time for economic reasons). U5 - Total unemployed as a percent of civilian labor force. U6 - Full-time job seekers plus half of part-time for economic reasons as percent of labor force less half of part-time labor force. U7 - U6 plus discouraged workers. The estimates for U1 through U7 are published monthly in the Bureau C Labor Statistics‘ Employment Situation News Release and in the monthly publication Employment and Earnings. Even this broad array does not provide the best possible measures of CRS- 9 IB7708l UPDATE-O7/15/82 either labor force potential or economic hardship. The broadest measure, U7, is a crude measure of the potential labor force supply. However, it does not take into account the fact that, in good times, many persons other than those pcounted as discouraged workers would enter the labor force. Similarly, the U1 to U7 array does not include a good measure of economic hardship. The hardship notion is recognized to some degree in U1 which shows persons unemployed for 15 weeks or more, and in U3 which reflects the «unemployed household heads. New data are being tabulated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to show the extent to which the hardship caused by unemployment is mitigated by the employment of other family members. For example, in the first quarter of 1976, nearly 60% of the total unemployed lived in families where at least one other person was employed. Thus, a look at historical data will give some indication, but by no means a precise one, of trends in joblessness for the nation as a whole over the past 75 years or so. Since the turn of the century, the United States has experienced rates of unemployment exceeding 7% in 17 separate years and has approached 7% in three other years. In 1908, joblessness in America shot up from a previous 2.8% to 8.0% in one year. while this dramatic increase stands as the largest single-year change in unemployment rates, it is by no means the highest level of joblessness experiencedflin any one year., The record-high annual percentagei ‘rates of unemployment experienced during the depression years of the thirties ill stand as the most pervasive period of joblessness in America in this century. ' However, between 1908 and the era of the 1930s, unemployment registered 6.7% in 1911, 7.9% and 8.5% in 1914-15, and 11.7% in 1921. Thus, in 1930, when many of the Nation's labor markets started to disintegrate, the 8.9% rate for that year was no newcomer to historical unemployment data. As the depression deepened, however, the unemployment rate climbed steadily in the next three years peaking at 25.2% in 1933 before it started to slowly decline to 14.3% in 1937. In 1938, a second wave of unemployment gripped the .Nation. The rate climbed again to 19.1% in that year and it wasn't until the effects of World War II defense production were felt in 1942 that unemployment finally receded to a pre-1930 level of 4.7%. Thus, in the 12-year period 1930-1941, unemployment, as crudely computed as it was then, never registered less than 8.9%; was over 10% in ten of the twelve years; was over 15% in eight years; and was over 20% in the four consecutive years 1932-1935. After the "fully employed" world war II years 1943, 1944, and 1945 when unemployment was less than 2% in each year (1.2% in 1944), joblessness in the ‘United States remained rather stable for the three years 1946 to 1948. However, the cyclical swings in the economy occurring since the beginning of ;e 1950s, coupled with the rapidly changing structure of the U.S. labor force (increasing participation of minorities, females and the influx of teenage workers during the 1960s) resulted in periods of relatively high unemployment (over 5%) in 15 of the last 28 years. Unemployment levels CRS-10 IB77081 UPDATE-O7/15/82 receded to under 4% in only two periods (1952-53 and 1966-69) when Korean and Vietnam war production and spending had some effect on employment rates. In the last ten years (1972-1981), annual rates of unemployment have beg‘ over 5% in each year except 1973 (4.9%), and in 1975 registered its highest one-year national average (8.5%) since 1941. I Compounding the seriousness of the more recent periods of high unemployment has been the concurrent experience of high rates of inflation. For example, in 1973 the December to December increase in the Consumer Price Index was 8.8% while unemployment for .the year registered 4.9%; in 1974, the CPI increased 12.2% while unemployment remained relatively high at 5.6%; in 1975, there was a 7.0% increase in the CPI with an 8.5% unemployment rate. During the recovery stage of 1976, unemployment receded to an annual rate of 7.7% while the CPI increased at a relatively modest rate of 4.8%. In 1980 the December to December CPI increase was 12.4 percent and the annual rate of unemployment was 7.1 percent. Thus, the existence of both high unemployment levels and high rates of inflation on the one hand, and on the other hand, decreases in both levels of unemployment and inflation at the same time have caused a flurry of inquiries into the validity, applicability, or possible shifting of the so-called Phillips Curve relationship (inflation -= unemployment_ trade—off) in which generally, lower rates of unemployment have been associated with higher rates of price inflation and vice—versa, given a level of productivity in the economy. A The growth in the labor force, especially in the post-World War II periot has given a new and more dramatic perspective to the recent unemployment problem. with a civilian labor force (against which the number of unemployed is measured to arrive at an unemployment rate) of 61.3 million in 1949, the 5.9% unemployment rate for that year represented an unemployed labor force of 3.65 million. In 1971, the same 5.9% unemployment rate translated into 5 million unemployed workers when measured against the largely expanded civilian labor force of 84 million workers. Thus, the 8.5% unemployment rate of 1975 represented more unemployed workers in absolute terms (7.8 million) than did the 14.3% rate of 1937 (7.7 million workers) and almost as many as the 16.3% rate of 1931 (8.0 million workers). In 1981 the 7.6% unemployment rate translated into 8.1 million unemployed workers. The proportion of workers experiencing some unemployment during 1980 was 18.1%, significantly higher than the 15.8% unemployed at some point during 1979, but still below the 20.2% high experienced in 1975. About 21.4 million of all people 16 years old or older who worked or looked for work during 1980, were unemployed at some point during the year, reflecting the short severe recession last year. Also, it should be mentioned that a certain amount of unemployment is endemic in the economy as a result of normal frictional joblessness (workers moving from area-to-area and job-to-job) as well as seasonal and casual unemployment. Although hope was once held to avoid seasonal swings through rescheduling of operations by business firms, seasonal swings in unemploymen* are still extensive; an increase of 27% in unemployment totals (befor adjustments) from the lowest to the highest month of the year is the average experience of recent years. Finally, since the monthly labor force data show a single frame of a CRS-ll IB7708l UPDATE-O7/15/82 constantly changing unemployment picture, unemployment resulting from all causes (including frictional factors) affects a far larger share of the work force than the single monthly unemployment figures indicate. For example, ‘"en the average monthly unemployment rate is 5%, about 15 million workers cuffer some unemployment during the course of the year, one—third of them for imore than 15 weeks. In the 1975 recession, 21.1 million persons were unemployed at some time during the year; in 1976, 20.4 million experienced a spell of joblessness at some time. Thus, while the monthly national ‘unemployment rate never exceeded 8.0% (seasonally adjusted) in 1976, 19.1% of the 107 million people who were in the labor force for all or a part of that year experienced some unemployment. On the other hand, while the monthly employed figure in 1976 peaked at 88. million in December, more than 104 million workers held a job at some time during the year. CRS-12 IB77081 UPDATE-07/15/82 Table III Labor Force Statistics, 1900 - 1981 (in thousands) Total Civ. Unemploya Non—Inst. Labor Labor Total Total Un- ment Rate Year Pop. Force Force Employed Employed % of CLF (persons 14 years of age and over) 1900 n/a 28,500 28,376 29,956 1,420 5.0 1905 n/a 32,408 32,299 30,918 1,381 4.3 1910 n/a 36,850 36,709 34,559 2,150 5.9 1915 n/a 39,774 39,600 36,223 3,377 8.5 1920 n/a 41,720 41,340 39,208 2,132 5.2 1925 n/a 45,431 45,109 43,716 1,453 3.2 1928 n/a 47,367 47,105 45,123 1,982 4.2 1929 n/a 49,440 49,180 47,630 1,550 3.2 1930 n/a 50,080 49,820 45,480 4,340 8.7 1931 n/a 50,680 50,420 42,400 8,020 15.9 1932 n/a y5l,250 51,000 38,940 12,060 23.6 1933 n/a 51,840 51,590 38,760 12,830 24.9 1934 n/a 52,490 52,230- 40,890 11,340 21.7 1935 n/a 53,140 52,870 42,260 10,610 20.1 1936 n/a 53,740 53,440 44,410 9,030 16.9 1937 n/a 54,320 54,000 46,300 7,700 14.3 1938, n/a, 54,950h3 %54,610y% 44,220v 10,390 19.0 1939 4n/a 55,600‘ 55,230 ‘4s,750 ‘ 9,480 17.2 1940 100,380 56,180 55,640 47,520 8,120 14.6 1941 101,520 57,530 55,910 50,350 5,560 9.9 1942 102,610 60,380 56,410 53,750 2,660 4.7 1943 103,660 64,560 55,540 54,470 1,070 1.9 1944 104,630 66,040 54,630 53,960 670 1.2 1945 105,530 65,300 53,860 52,820 1,040 1.9 1946 106,520 60,970 57,520 55,250 2,270 3.9 1947 107,608 61,758 60,168 57,812 2,356 3.9 CRS-13 IB7708l UPDATE-O7/15/82 Table III (continued) Total Civ. Unemployment Non-Inst. Labor Labor Total Total Rate Year Pop. Force Force Employed Unemployed % of CLF (Persons 16 years of age and over) 1947 103,418 60,941 59,350 57,038 2,311 3.9 1948 104,527 62,080 60,621 58,343 2,276 3.8 1949 105,611 62,903 61,286 57,651 3,637 5.9 1950 106,645 63,858 62,208 58,918 3,288 5.3 1951 107,721 65,117 62,017 59,961 2,055 3.3 1952 108,823 65,730 62,138 60,250 1,883 3.0 1953(1) 110,601 66,560 63,015 61,179 1,834 2.9 1954 111,671 66,993 63,643 60,109 3,532 5.5 1955 112,732 68,072 65,023 62,170 2,852 4.4 1956 113,811 69,409 66,552 63,799 2,750 4.1 1957 115,065 69,729 66,929 64,071 2,859 4.3 1958 116,363 70,275 67,639 63,036 4,602 6.8 1959 117,881 70,921 68,369 64,630 3,740 5.5 1960(1) 119,759 72,142 69,628 55,778 3,852 5.5 1961 121,343 73,031 70,459 65,746 4,714 6.7 1962(1) 122,981 73,442 70,614 66,702 3,911 5.5 1963 125,154 74,571 71,833 67,762 4,070 5.7 1964 127,224 75,830 73,091 69,305 3,786 5.2 1965 129,236 77,178 74,455 71,088 3,366 4.5 1966 131,180 ,_78,893. 3) 75,770p 72,895 %2,875 3.8 1967 133,319 80,793 77,347 74,372 2,975 3.8 1968 135,562 82,272 78,737 75,920 2,817 3.6 1969 137,841 84,240 80,734 77,902 2,832 3.5 1970 140,272 85,959 82,771 78,678 4,093 4.9 1971 143,033 87,198 84,382 79,367 5,016 5.9 1972(1) 146,574 89,484 87,034 82,153 4,882 5.6 1973(1) 149,423 91,756 89,429 85,064 4,365 4.9 1974 152,349 94,179 91,949 86,794 5,156 5.6 1975 155,333 95,955 93,775 85,846 7,929 8.5 1976 158,294 90,302 96,158 88,752 7,406 7.7 1977 161,166 101,142 99,009 92,017 6,991 7.1 1978(1) 164,027 104,368 102,251 96,048 6,202 6.1 1979 166,951 107,050 104,962 98,824 6,137 5.8 1980 169,848 109,042 106,940 99,303 7,637 7.1 1981 172,272 110,812 108,670 100,397 8,273 7.6 (1) Not strictly comparable with prior years due to the introduction of population adjustments in these years. CRS-l4 I IB7708l UPDATE-O7/l5/82 Part IV Forecasts of National Unemployment Rates Forecasts of national average unemployment rates are included in monthly economic forecasts of several private econometric modeling firms. Also, a few Federal Government agencies estimate future unemployment levels for the United States based on econometric models and existing or expected economic conditions and fiscal policies of the government. These government forecasts are shown in Table IV-l as they become available. The following forecasts of unemployment rates for the nation as a whole were made on the dates indicated by the sources shown. Table IV-l Forecasts of National Unemployment Rates: 1982-1983 Calendar 1982: I 1982: II 1982 l983 Private Forecasts Data Resources, Inc. 8.8 9.6 9.3 8.8 (June l982) Chase Econometrics 8.77 ‘ 9.51 p 9.30 8.82 (June l982), Government Forecasts(l) Office of Management ' and Budget 9.2 9.l 8.9 7.9 (Feb. l982) Congressional Budget Office 8.9 8.0 (Feb. 1982) (1) These projections made for budget purposes. Part V State Unemployment Rates, Annual Averages and Latest Monthly Data Unemployment data for states and the District of Columbia are reported monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Since Congress enacted a series of legislation which ties program funding to local area unemployment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has begun to provide and publish data for all states and major labor market areas on a monthly basis. STATE UNEMPLOYMENT RATES Revised procedures for calculating monthly State and local area labor ‘force and unemployment estimates were introduced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, commencing with the estimates for January 1978. The purpose of CRS—l5 IB7708l UPDATE-O7/l5/82 the changes was to make the unemployment estimates more accurate by using more current data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) and improve data from the State unemployment insurance programs. The changes bring State and a «a estimates more closely into line with the national unemployment s-atistics and reduce the extent of the year-end revisions in the State and area unemployment estimates. As of January 1978 data for State and areas, based on the revised procedures, make the estimates more comparable from State to State and incorporate more current data into the estimating process. The improvements, which in most instances are not available for earlier periods, make the current estimates not strictly comparable with the data prior to January l978. Users are therefore advised to exercise caution when making comparisons over time. Data for New York, California, Illinois, Ohio, New YJersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Texas, Massachusetts, Florida and two large metropolitan areas, New York City and the Los Angeles-Long Beach area, are based directly on the Current Population Survey (CPS) -— the same survey used to estimate the national unemployment. The monthly CPS estimates for these l0 States and two sub—State areas are sufficiently reliable so that no further revision in unemployment rate will be required, because actual CPS data can be used directly each month. Data in the remaining 40 States and the District of Columbia is developed each month on the basis of the relationship between the CPS and Unemployment Insurance (UI) based estimates for the 6 month period ending in ”the current month. In other words, a 6-month moving average adjustment from the CPS is applied to the UI-based estimate to bring the State estimates into conformity with national definitions of employment and unemployment, which result Ain nsiderably reduced annual revisions in comparison with the previous method. For most States, improved inputs from the UI system are incorporated into the estimates for 1978. These improvements involve coding of UI claimants by county of residence, eliminating duplicate counting of certain claimants, and eliminating claimants who had earnings during the survey week and who, therefore, do not meet the official definition of "unemployed." These improved inputs, which in most instances are not available for earlier periods, make the current estimates not strictly comparable with the data prior to January 1978. I Data for the labor market areas (except for New York City and the Los Angeles-Long Beach areas) are obtained from the UI-based estimates adjusted to the State totals for employment and unemployment. The improved UI data, discussed above, is incorporated into the independent estimates « of unemployment for labor market areas. Improved UI claims data, together with other data to reflect new entrants and reentrants, is also used to determine unemployment of individual counties within a labor market area. Because of data limitations, a time series of sufficient duration to permit seasonal adjustment is not yet available for most States. In the absence of seasonally adjusted data, it is not possible to determine whether monthly changes in a State or area are due to temporary seasonal factors nor underlying trends. To meet the legislative requirements, BLS provides the best data ivailable, all of which are produced by the cooperating State agencies according to BLS-prescribed methods. Three categories of data are published: CRS-16 IB7708l UPDATE-07/l5/82 l. Data for all States and some 200 large labor market areas. These are issued monthly in a BLS press release and published as official BLS data in the Bureau's publication, Employment and Earnings. Copies are available for perusal and duplication at CRS Reference Center (Rayburn B335, Long B221, Russell 5 and 5A) or at CRS’ Congressional Reference Division, Main Building, Library of Congress. 2. Data for areas of 50,000 inhabitants or more, other than the 200 large labor market areas. These are produced monthly and are reviewed regularly for methodological consistence by the BLS. They are made available, through the National Technical Information Service, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161, to other government agencies and the public with explanations as to the data limitations. 3. Data for areas of small size. These are produced only when required for program implementation. They are checked on a sample basis and only for methodological consistency by the BLS. They are made available, through the National Technical Information Service, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161, to other government agencies and the public, as needed, with explanations of their limitations. _ ’ S V Table V-l Tables V-la and V-lb show estimates of unemployment rates by State and the District of Columbia. These date are taken from the monthly State and Metropolitan Area Unemployment press release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics mentioned in category 1 above. while the following table shows only unemployment rates by States, the press release gives labor force and unemployment totals as well as the unemployment rate for each State for the month reported on and the previous month as well as for about 200 large labor market areas within states. 2 Since the current month's figures are preliminary, they are subject to revisions in the following month. Thus, the latest month's, data is marked "preliminary" and the previous months include all revisions made by BLS to date. It must also be kept in mind that while monthly national unemployment and employment data are seasonally adjusted, state data are not. Table V=2 Table V-2 shows the Revised unemployment rates by states for each year, l976=l980. IB77081 UPDATE-O7/15/82 CRS-17 - la Estimates of Unemployment Rates, Table V by States and D.C. 1980 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. AL 8.6 AK 10.1 11.3 10.8 10.9 9.4 10.2 AZ AR CA+ CO CT DE DC FL+ GA HI ID IL+ IN IA KS 10 9.1 10.5 11.9 11.3 KY LA ME MD MA+ MI+ 10.3 11.2 11.0 12.4 14.0 14.0 14.1 12.5 11.9 12.1 12.5 12.4 MN MS MO MT NE NV NH NJ+ NM NY+ NC ND 'oH+ OK OR PA+ RI SC SD TN TX+ IB7708l UPDATE-O7/15/82 CRS-18 - la continued 1980 Table V Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. NOV. Dec. UT VT VA WA WV .5 9 l2.l ll.O l0.0 WI WY * Preliminary + As of Dec. 1978 data for these 10 states is based on the Current Population Survey. IB77081 UPDATE-07/15/82 CRS-19 - lb Table V Estimates of Unemployment Rates, by States and D.C. 1981 May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.* 908 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. 11.0 AL’ . 11.0 lO.8 10.0 10 AK AZ AR CA+ CO CT 808 DE 9.8 10.9 10.2 10.1 DC FL+ GA HI ID IL+ IN IA KS 9.0 9.8 10.8 12.2 9.1 KY 10.4 10.2 LA ME MD MA+ 13.2 112.2 11.5 11.1 111.8 11.0 10.7 11.5 11.8 MI+ MN 14.4 13.7 14.2 MS MO MT NE NV NH NJ+ NM NY+ NC ND 9.4 9.4 10.0 9.9 10.9 11.8 903 OH+ 10.4 10.0 OK 9.0 9.5 10.8 11.7 OR 10.0 10.6 10.0 PA+ RI SC SD TN 10.3 TX+1 UT *Preliminary + As of Dec. 1978 data for these 10 States is based On the current population survey. IB7708l UPDATE-O7/l5/82 CRS-20 — lb continued 1981 May June July Table V Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. VT VA WA lO.l ll.3 10.0 WV l2.4 ll.9 ll.4 13.4 12.2 lO.5 9.0 WI WY * Preliminary + As of Dec. data fOI' these lO.StateS are based on the Current Population Survey 1978, IB77081 UPDATE-O7/15/82 CRS-21 - 1b continued 1982 Table V May* June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 13 Feb. Mar. Apr. 14. 11. Jan. 14 10 13 14.1 AL 10.1 10 11.2 AK AZ 12. 11.6 10.7 AR CA+ CO CT DE DC 11.5 10.1 . N05 10.6 10.6 . 10.1 FL+ ‘GA HI 10 12. 12.0 10.8 ID 10 10.1 10.2 10.1 12.3 10 IL+ IN IA KS 11 13.3 12.9 13 11.3 10.3 10.2 KY 11.5 11. 10.7 10.3 10.2 lO03 . 10.1 LA 10.0 ME MD MA+ 16.0 16.1 17.0 15.5 14.3 MI+ MN 10.6 10 10. MS MO 10.1 10.7 10.4 MT NE NV NH NJ+ NM NY+ NC ND OH+ 11.9 12.2 12.3 12.0 11.1 OK OR 12. 12.5 12.3 11.8 11.1 PA+ 11.8 11.0 10.6 10.3 RI . 10.2 10.3 11.4 11.3 10.9 10.5 11.4 SC SD TN 12.1 12.3 12.0 10.7 10.6 TX+ UT CRS-22 IB7708l UPDATE-O7/15/82 Table V — lb continued 1982 ‘ Apr.9 May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.* 9.0 7.6 7.2 7.1 .5 12.3 11.2 1 0.9 10.2 9.7 4.9 IB7708l UPDATE-O7/l5/82 CRS-23 Table V UNEMPLOYMENT RATES BY STATES, I976-l98l 1981 10.7 1980 1979 1978 1977 1976 States AL ll.2 AK AZ AR CA CO CT DE DC FL GA HI 0 0 0 0 ID IL IN IA KS 0 lO.l 6 0 KY LA ME MD 9 0 12.3 12.4 MA MI 0 0 MN MS” MO MT 0 NE NV NH NJ NM NY 10.4 10.3 NC ND OH OK OR PA RI 0 0 0 SC SD *Preliminary : U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey. SOUITCE CRS-24 IB7708l UPDATE-O7/l5/82 Table V - 2 (continued) State50 1975 1977 1978 1979 1980* 1981* TN 5.0 5.3 5.8 5.8 7.3 9.1 TX 5.7 5.3 4.8 4.2 5.2 5.3 UT 5.7 5.3 3.8 4.3 5.3 5.7 VT 8.7 7.0 5.7 5.1 5.4 5.7 VA 5.9 5.3 5.4 4.7 5.0 5.1 WA 8.7 8.8 5.8 5.8 7.9 9.5 wv 7.5 7.1 5.3 8.7 9.4 10.7 m 5.5 4.9 5.1 4.5 7.2 7.8 wt 4.1 3.5 3.3 2.8 4.0 4.1 Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey. UBEARY GF VVASHZ Ef%&i3'§"€3N U€‘Ji\.»’E=ff~'«:;E€!‘TY 5T.L0LWS-nno.