IllSi A GENERAL VIEW OP THE ACTUAL FORCE and RESOURCES OF FRANCE, IN JANUARY, M.DCC.XCIII. By WILLIAM PLAYFAI R. Let not him thg girdeth on his harnefs, boaft himfelf as he that putteth it off. i Kings xx. tu LONDON: Punted- for JOHN STOCKDALE, Piccadilly, J 793- [Price One Shilling and Six-pence.] Cntwu at Stationers tytiL Ht T^ - - GENERAL VIEW, &c. AS a war has taken place between this country and France, it is of confider* able importance that the nation at large mould be abje to form, as near as poffible, a true idea of the force of their enemy. The fituation of France is fuch as is quite new in the annals of the world; and the force of that wretched and divided people cannot be eftimated according to any Common rules: hence it is, that, viewed in one way, that na- tion feems to have immenfe refources, and to be able, with impunity, to defy all Europe : viewed in other points, it is equally demon- A 2 Arable, 1140487 ( 4 ) Arable, that the internal fa&ions of die country will foon reduce it to a ftate of infignificance. We mutt not wonder then that opinions in this country are divided, and that the public newfpapers, which are fo frequently the guides of public opinion with regard to the actual ftate of affairs, as well as .the records of recent facts, reprefent the flate of France, as to power and refources, very differently, and each according to the favorite views of its con- ductors. I claim the attention of the public for half an hour on this important fubject, and with- out pretending to any perfonal merit as a po- litician or financier, I found my claim to attention on a fact; which is, that in May laft I mewed the ftate of French finances for the year 1792, in a much truer light than Mr. Cambon, deputy of the National Affembly, and now member of the Convention. His flatement and mine are both printed, and the facts are fince in my favour : I afTerted that eleven hundred French millions would be ne- ceflary for the year, and he eight hundred, millions. The real fum has been 1250 mil- lions ; ( 5 ) lions ; but then I obferved at the time, that I was under the mark, and he imagined he had gone beyond it ; fo that his error was very great, and mine inconfiderable. As to affairs of general politics, I, in the fame work ^printed in Paris, and published in London) demonstrated the impoffibility of the conflitution maintaining its ground, the fettled tendency of the revolution to a civil war, and a fort of republic, denouncing, at the fame time, the fchemes of the Jacobin emiffaries upon England. I have had, and ftill have, opportunities to know facls that very few Englishmen can know, and therefore at- tribute my being risrht intirely to this circum- itance ; which, though it may not entitle me to exult on my penetration, gives me fome right to claim attention from my country- men. We are told that France has 2,400,000 armed men ready to engage her enemies, when we mould be told that fhe has 2,400,000 who are not able to keep peace in their re- fpedive departments. We ( 6 ) We are told that France has difcovered a method of being able to fupport an expence of 7,000,000 fterl. a month, when we mould be told that me has found a method of running 7,000,000 a month in debt, without any pof- fibility of ever paying it, and with a certainty of being very foon deprived even of that ruinous refource. We hear that France is free, and that the whole nation (a few Ariftocrats excepted) is contented and happy; when there is neither fafety for individuals, liberty of opinion, nor unanimity; the loweft dregs of the people being in Paris, and every where elfe, the con- ductors and tyrants of thofe who have the vanity to fay they govern, and the weaknefs to imagine that any one believes them. We are told by themfelves, that their fuccefs in September, October, and Novem- ber laft, was owing to their courage and good generallhip, when, in fad:, it was owing to ill conduct, and great miftakes in their ene- mies. Let ( 7 ) Let us throw afide the veil which their republican gafconade has thrown upon facts, and we mall foon fee that France is only fuperior to other nations in vanity, injuftice, cruelty, and mifery ; in thefe, we will allow, fhe is fuperior to the whole human race ; but neither in freedom nor in force. Firft, then, there are more than two mil- lions and a half of fighting men in France; for every man is armed, from the age of 16 to that of 60 ; and many I have {een bearing arms at 1 3 and at 70 : there muft, then, be more than the number fpecified ; there muft at leafr. be four millions. This is an adroit manner, on their part, of telling a falfhood, and efcaping cenfure : they under-rate the number to be thought within bounds ; but then it is added, they can fendfuch a number againji their enemies, which is very falfe. Never was there a time when France could fend fewer men into the field, for any conti- nuance of time, and fupply them with necef- faries, than at prefent ; becaufe, in all the towns and villages, they want guards againfl each other; becaufe there is no order, no 8 regularity, ( 8 ) regularity, and no induftry among thofe at home, to fupply thofe who are in the field : for this reafon we have heard of fo many complaints made to the National Affembly againft the minifter of war (Pache). The men had neither (hoes nor breeches ; for the 180 millions of affignats a month, could neither create taylors nor fhoemakers. No, this enormous fum, which, in the time of Auguflus, would have paid the whole ex- pences of the Roman empire for nearly half a year, by means of order. and arrangement, could not clothe the armies of Dumourier and Cuftine for one month. Can there he a clearer proof than this of the neceffity of order, arrangement, and in- duftry, to create force ; and can any thing Jhew more diftin^ly the fallacy of eftimating revenue by reams of paper, or force, by the total number of armed men ? That the armed men may a&, it is erTentt- ally neceffary that there mould remain a ftill greater number unarmed. The whole nation, " fay they," is a camp; and preciTely, for that ( 9 ) that reafon, there is not one regiment of well-accoutered foldiers. The truth is, that it was by an exertion of the moil violent nature, that numbers of men were collected fufficient to oppofe the duke of Erunfwick's army, which was but about 60,000 flrong. Whole villages were depopulated of the flower of their youth in the northern parts of France -, and I fay it from certain knowledge, that the numbers who died from difeafe and fkirmiihes, amount- ed, in three months, to three times the whole number of their enemies. The whole frontier of France, the fea- coaft, and a few inacceffible parts excepted, is become a fort of theatre for the war \ and I venture to predicl:, that when they are all covered in the manner that neceffity will re- quire, France will not 'be able to have, for any length of time, an army of 200,000 men in any one quarter ; nor will that army ever be either well clothed or well fed. So much for the force by land ; fo much for the millions that are to plant the tree of B liberty, ( io ) liberty at Vienna, Peterfburg, and Pekin ; and to fuch a number is actually reduced that army of breechlefs pbilofophers, who are to fraternize all mankind, by fprcading aflignats and levying contributions. With regard to their refource in finances, that merits a very particular investigation ; for upon that, in a great meafure, depends the length of time, during which the French nation will be able to tear herfelf to pieces, and to difturb all Europe. When the aflignats were firft iflued, there was a great quantity of real fpecie in France. The government created them rather for the payment of debts, than for the ufual purpofes of the treafury. The lands of the clergy that were feized by the firft a (Terribly, ferved as a pledge for the reimburfement, or rather annihilation, of thefe aflignats - y and there was thus a real value in the paper fo created. The combination was by no means an ignorant nor fooliiTi one ; nor were precautions want- ing to give that paper credit. Had the ori- ginal ( II ) ginal fyftem been carried into execution as it was planned, and had it not been extended too far, and the affignats mifapplied, the fcheme, great as it was, would have fucceeded well, and might have had a happy termina- tion. To explain this, let us follow the affignats through their different ftages; and, in fpeaking of them, let us put all the funis in fterling money, to avoid confufion ; 24 livres being always counted equal to the pound fterling. The firft creation of affignats, in the be- ginning of 1790, was but equal to about one- fourth of the currency in fpecie which is reckoned to circulate ufuajly in the king- dom ; and this fum was, in great part, paid in the reimburfement of debts, contracted under different forms > fo that, in the firft inftance, it went into the hands of perfons who were rich or eafy. As the church lands began to be fold at the fame time, and the affignats were taken at par in thefe purchafes, though paffing at B 2 a lofs ( 12 ) a lofs in the common affairs of life *, the monied people fo reimburfed were very- likely to employ their affignats in purchafing church lands, which, in fact, they did; and as all affignats paid for thefe lands were annulled and burned, the quantity of paper did not increafe very fail at firft. The progrefs of burning, and the hopes of peace, quietnefs, and a revenue from taxes, when the conflitution fhould be finifhed, gave, defer vedly, considerable credit to a paper, which, fince thofe hopes have vanifhed, and fince its quantity has been fo prodigi- oufly increafed, deferves no credit at all; and, in fad, obtains not much. By degrees, however, the new affignats created became * As there were no affignats fer lefs than 200 livres, or about eight guineas, people were obliged to change them for filver or gold. The firlr. day they appeared, they were changed" at a lofs of three per cent, but that foon mounted to five, and by degrees, in about a year, to 10 The fecond year they had got fo far as 40 per cent, lofs againft gold and filver, when a manoeuvre re- eftabliihcd thtm a little. They are, at prefent, only at 50 per cent. lofs. I fhall hereafter fhew why they are not lower, as they have not re*Uy any intrinfic value at this time. c more ( '3 ) more numerous, and ceafing to be paid to public creditors for reimburfements, began to be employed for every fort of payments, and fupplied the place of taxes to the public treafury. The affignat paid to the poor, or to the merchant, ceafed to be employed in a purchafe of church lands j it was immedi- ately paffed in trade ; the gold and filver, by degrees, became dear and fcarce ; fmall affignats became necelTary, and were created; fo that before the end of the year 1791, a traveller might go from one end of France to the other, and fee neither gold, filver, copper, nor any currency but the affignats, which were at 28 per cent. lofs. The conftitution was finifhed, and was accepted by that well-meaning, good-natured, and unfortunate king, who has fo lately paid fo dearly for his good intentions ; who has expiated, in fo cruel a manner, his fatal complaifance to a let of levellers, whofe am- bition and vanity could bear no fuperior; but who were too ignorant to fee that chey would themfelves alfo be amongft the number of the victims which their own hands were pre- paring. Inftcad of tranquility and peace, the [ H 1 the conftitution brought on more troubles, and their termination feemed now not to be fixed. A general miftrufr. took place, mixt with defpondency ; and the afTignats fevercly felt the fhock. One hundred millions fterhng was fup- pofed to be the amount of fpecie circulating in France before the revolution ; but when the louis-d'ors and crowns had entirely dis- appeared, the quantity of afTignats in circu- lation did not amount to more than 1 2 mil- lions. This may be attributed to three caufes : trade was at a ftand, and therefore the mafs necefTary for circulation was dimi- nifhed : 2dly. That portion of the money in the kingdom that was not in actual circula- tion, was in gold or filver ; but whenever it was wanted for ufe, it was changed into aflignats; for it is curious enough, that though at firft, when people wanted to make fmall payments, they bought filver with afTignats : at lafl they bought afTignats with filver, on purpofe to pay away. The third reafon was, that the affignats went at par in the payment of debts, of rent, and [ 15 ] and for many other things, of which the price could not fo foon be changed ; and that people parted with their affignats very readily, and had no defire to amafs a kind of money that had neither intrinfic value; durability, nor even beauty to recommend it, by which means a fmaller ium, by circulating more quickly, replaced the gold and filver. That being once done, there was a new caufe for the diminution of the affignats in value, and it is this caufe which muft ultimately deftroy their value altogether. Until that terrible ioth of Augufl, (when I faw fcenes of rage and horror, which I fhall never forget) the fame manner of cre- ating affignats continued ; that is to fay, though the number was ftill increafing, yet they did not pafs the bounds of about two millions ilerling a month, and the whole mafs was then about 80 millions fterling, (not counting thofe that were burned) ; fo that going on by the fame progreffion, it would yet have been 1 o months before the original quantity of fpecie would have been fully re- placed by paper. From t 16 ] From this epoch we may, however, date the laft progreflion of exceffive expence in the fyftcm of paper. September alone cod nearly eight millions fterling ; the fubfequent months have each coft nearly as much ; fo that, in fact, the creation of aflignats, fince Auguft, is equal to above 32 millions fterling; and in the fpring, inftead of diminishing, that expence muft increafe. The fum now cre- ated is therefore about 1 1 2 millions fterling of paper, and that is augmenting at the rate of fix millions a month. Add to this, that for fome time paft the neccflity of manufacturing the aflignats in great hafte, prevents all thofe precautions which are neceflary to avoid falsification. The wild acts of the Convention, furpafling even its predeceflbrs in rage, delirium, a»d wickednefs, and going, like a fhip in a tem- peft, without any fixt guide, have deftroyed that fmall degree of confidence that had re- mained fo long. What, then, has preferved any degree of credit to thefe aflignats, feeing that there is no hope of reimburfemsnt, but that, on the contrary, [ »> ] Contrary, the quantity increafes more rapidly than ever. The caufes are various : the firft is, that the want of order and authority over the lower clafs of people, who, in fact, are the matters, and who live chiefly on dry bread, has prevented the price of that article from being raifed in any great degree ; and it is a curious feci:, that though all forts of luxuries have increafcd in price, the affignat lofes hardly any of its value againft bread, or the bufhel of wheat, which ought naturally to have rifen along with filver. The affignat continues ftill to pay debts, rent, and taxes, at par, which ferves greatly to preferve its value. Another caufe is, that [in Paris, upon the Place de Vi&oire, where gold and filver ufed to be fold, the fellers have been, in a great meafure, chafed away fince the ioth of Auguft ; and thole that have been left are employed by the treafury, fometimes, to bring a greater quantity of gold than is wanted, and, by fictitious bargains, influence the market. The courfe of exchange is, in a C great ( »* ) great degree, regulated by the price of gold ; and ever fince Claviere has been in the de- partment of finances, manoeuvres of this kind * have been carried on to a great ex- tent, and with coniiderable fuccefs. Although it is clear, that what I am now faying is rather an affertion than a demon- itration, yet there is a fact notorioufly known to all the world, ^which mews that the value of the aflignats is not regulated by the na- tional affairs of France j for if they were, then the courfe of exchange, and the price of gold and filver, would rife and fall accord- ing to the fuccefs or failure of thofe perfons who govern the affairs of France ; but it is not fo. The value of the affignats hardly varied at all on the i oth of Auguft., except for a few days ; though, the conftitutien being overturned, it was clear that every thing was to do over again, and that there- fore the probability of the fpeedy winding * The fame manoeuvres have been carried on upon 'Change here in London, where the agents of the trea- sury in France have fold bills on Paris, or bought them at a high price, juft as it fuited the purpofe of keeping up the nominal value of the arlignat. up ( i9 ) up of affairs was entirely loft ; and this pro- bability, while it lafted, was certainly one caufe that gave a real folidity to the affignat. While the horrid mafiacres of the 2d, 3d, 4th, and 5th of September, were carrying on, the aflignat was mounting in price ; and it aftonimed not a little the merchants on the 'Change at London, that the credit of the paper rofe as the Pruffian army approached the capital of France, notwithanding it was generally expected that it would foon arrive there. This is a plain proof that collateral circumftances, and not confidence in the ruling fyftem of affairs, regulated the value of the affignats. Since the republic, as they call it, has overrun Brabant, and threatened the whele of Europe in a fit of folly and infolence, their credit finks, and the death of their monarch, which they pretended would enfure their profperity, has ftill augmented their difcre- dit : thus that famous republic, with its claws extended on all fides, is like a crab, and goes backwards inftead of advancing. C a Such ( * ) Such are nearly the reafons that operate in preferving a degree of value to the aflignats, to which their real folidity does not entitle them ; and tbefe reafons are fupported with force by the abfolute neceflity of ufing them, as figns of value, there being no other in the whole country. In what manner, therefore, their real want of folidity, added to the great and conftant increafe of their quantity, may, in the end, Operate, is difficult to guefs with any degree of precifion, particularly when thefe caufes are counteracted by one fo flrong as abfolute nscej/tty ; as they are the only figns of value that exift over fuch an extenfive country. Though from want of precedent of any kind (for the American pap^r dollar was, in many refpecls, different) it is imporllble to form a,near eftimate of the time when this paper will have an end ; yet it is very cer- tain, that a continual increafe in the quantity muft diminffh the value, and that the dimi- nution muft goon with an accelerated quick* nefs; becauie the more it lofes, the more will be ncceflary to iupply the wants of the treafury, ( 21 ) treafury, and therefore the creation of- p^per muft increafe in quantity. p They who know little of the matter fay, that the nominal value fignifies nothing, or but little, for that two reams of paper muft be printed off inftead of one, and then th# difficulty is finifhed. It is indeed true, that there is a certain degree of juflnefs in this obfervatjon, but it will not long hold good ; becaufe the livre Tournois, though only an ideal value, is the meafure of the price of many articles, which cannot eafily be changed; as for inftance, the price of the four pound loaf of bread, which ought to be 22 fols at Paris at prefent is but 12 in paper (which is but equal to three-pence Englifh money). A change cannot be made in or- dinary articles progreffively, and with the fame rapidity that the paper lofes its value, becaufe the mob taxes all neceffary articles, and will not allow iuch augmentations to take place; for every man, as a buyer, con- fiders the money he has, and compares it with what he has to buy ; nor, indeed, is it poflible to equalize revenues and prices in fuch a complex machine as the purchafes and fales ( « ) falcs of a great town, like Paris, according to the value of the aflignat. When, however, the nature of things is at open war with any contrivance of men, the contrivance muft, fooner or later, fall to the ground. If the continual importation of gold and filver from South America, by increafmg the quantity has diminished its value fo prodigi- ously, fince the days of Henry the Vlllth, how much more muft the increafe of paper in France, which has but a fictitious value, decreafe its power of ferving as money. The whole quantity of bullion imported into Europe in one year (one with another) has never been eftimated at more than about 5,000,000 fterling, and France creates as much currency in twenty-four days. The career down hill muft be then very rapid in- deed. I write this for the fatisfaction of the pub- lic, and for that reafon, finding that the dif- ferent fa£ts and reafonings about the aflignats will ( 23 ) will not lead to any clear conclufion, except the general one of their decreafe in value, I am willing to run the rifk of giving the refult of my own reflexions ; fhould time fhew me to be wrong, I hope my countrymen will cxcufe me. I think then it is likely that, when the afllgnat falls to one- third of its value, the order of prices, with regard to buying and felling, will be fo much altered and con- fufed, that it will occafion an almoft total difcredit of that paper ; and I imagine that difcredit muft take place towards the month of May, or June, next; or, at further!:, by the month of September, fhould our war with them continue. As foon as the affignats ceafe, then the power of the prefent government, if govern- ment it can be called, will ceafe, but not till then -, for I do not attempt to deny that fo long as the affignat does fell at a certain price, it is not much matter what that price is, for two reams of paper, inilead of one, will do, and, for tke moment* anfwers the fame end; < n ) end ; the only difference being, as I faid be- fore, that it fhortens the career. Thofe only who have been in France dur- ing the Revolution, can tell how powerful an engine the affignats have been: had fome celebrated emigrants taken my advice in the year 1 79 1 , in making war upon the credit rf France injlead of combating her troops, we mould not have had now to arm in England; fb many. brave men would not have bled in the field, nor fo virtuous a monarch on the fcaffoid. It has aftonifhed me, during thefe three years nearly, (I mean ever fince the month of June 1790) when the French began to turn their views to Avignon, and lay plans of ge- neral conqueil, that the different nations did not perceive that all their power of doing mifchief lay in the credit of the paper, which they created at will, and expended for the worft of purpofes. I wim ftill to dwell a little more upon this, and /hall explain myfelf by a fimilitude which, though very familiar, is very applicable. 4 Suppofe ( 25 ) Suppofe the wifhing purfe of Fortuna- tus were to drop into the hands of an indi- vidual in London, who had no religion, no morality, nor honour, but who had a fort of wild enthufiaftic defire of dictating to all his neighbours, and difturbing their domeftic peace ; and for that purpofe diftributed bribes, paid emifTaries, and ufed every effort that money enables a man to make. Would not all his neighbours foon feel the effects of this, and be rendered very miferable ? and not poffetfing fuch a purfe themfelvcs, myft not they be obliged to fubmit to a thoufand mortifications and inconveniencies ? Would not then their befl: way be to take from him the fatai purfe, and put it in the fire ? after which his reftlefs, mifchievous character would be no longer formidable to them, but m.uft prey upon, himfelf. It is clear, that as no nation in Europe has 1,000,000 flerjing at its command in a year, either for fecret fervices, or at the free difpo-* fition of its fovereign, or his minifters, and as France has twenty, in point of intrigue, corruption, and payment of emifTaries, under whatever defcription they may be, fhe is more D thaa ( 26 ) than a match for all the others ; if therefor^ we would gain an eafy victory over that people, let us undermine their credit* : at the expence of their paper, we mall fave our own blood and treafure, and, in fact, do them a fer- vice ; for their power of going on to maflacre and rob each other cannot be too foon put an end to. There' is, I am well aware, an argument that will be ufed againft what I have faid re- fpecting the affignats, which have now, fay their advocate?, all the eftates of die emigrants to infure their payment; and I know this has obtained for them a fort of credit. I am not ignorant that there are near fifty thoufand eftates to fell ; but I am not ignorant either that there are not purchafers to be found in France for five thoufand of them, nor for two thoufand ; fo that, though thefe lands would no doubt prove a great fource of reve- nue, I do not fee any connection they have with the afhgnats, nor any connection that * It is evidently not here that the way of undermining their credit is to be difcuffrd ; it is the expediency of the meafurt, nqf the manner of putting it into execution, can ( V ) can be created between them* As to people from other nations going into France to buy- lands, they may meet with a few dupes, as ignorant youths fometimes fall in amongft (harpers -, but a man mud be very ignorant indeed to ptfrchafe property in a country, where he mull have the value fet upon the produce by a mob, where his life mult be in danger, and where the fyflem of equality tends evidently to an equal divifion of property. - The fad is, that there are no purchafers for thefe lands, and that there are not at pre- fent any methods pradifed for diminishing the quantity of affignats. Had France peaceable times, moderate men at the head of affairs, and no foreign war, I mould confider the affignats as equal in goodnefs to any paper that is not payable at fight, or on a certain day ; but, furrounded as ihe is with enemies which me has made, torn with internal difcords, and about to have ffill more enemies, the ultimate fate of the affignats muft be determined before there can be time to turn about and change the fyftem. That the members of the executive council D 2 of ( *8 ) of France, and of the Convention, know their ftrength to confift in the credit of their aflignats there is no doubt; and as they know that a war with England will much haften the ruin of that credit, it is with good reafon that they wifh to avoid it. It would require infinitely longer time than I mould think proper to demand of the public, to view the affair of aflignats fo completely as it deferves -, and I own frankly I have not the vanity to think myfelf capable of doing the fubjeft juftice; but I think I can maintain againft whoever wifhes to combat it, that the credit of the aflignats is nearly over, and that with them will immediately fall down to no- thing the force of the French nation. But while the aflignats continue to ferve the purpofe, let us fee how far we in England have a war to fear, and what fort of exertion the French nation is at prefect capable of making. Firft of all we muft confider the nature of the effort they have already made, which, having been fuccefsful, may lead many people to ( *9 ) to believe, that they are capable of making fuch another, and finally of conquering their enemies. The laft campaign was begun too late in the feaibn by the combined forces, and with too little warmth; they adopted it partly on compulfion, partly through a generous in- tention to fupport the emigrants; and, laftly, were deceived as to the interior ftate of the country. The whole weight of the campaign was laid upon the army of the king of Pruffia, commanded by the duke of Brunfwick, who led the only body of an army fufficiently great to make any firm refinance. That this general did not take the precau- tions neceflary to fecure his fupplies of pro- vifions is certain ; that he committed feverai great errors is alfo, if not proved, at leaft very ftrongly fufpecled : but waving thefe difcuf- fions at prefent, fuppofe even that Dumourier had all the merit pomble in his condud, the retreat of an army half familhed and difeafed, and in an enemy's country, was not a very great viclory, gained by far mperior forces. This retreat being once effe&ed, there was not any other body of troops fufticiently numerous to make head againft the French army ; and 6 the ( 3° ) the fucc'efs of a few months, on the part of* the French, was the inevitable confequence of the retreat and difabled condition of the duke's trmy* To return once more to the effort made by the French to repel their enemies, let us confider that the unwife manifefio of the Duke of Brunfwick occafioned the greater! effort that it was porlible for a large city of 700,000 inhabitants, and a populous country, to make. I was in Paris myfelf, and know the feeling which it infpired. If the Duke's army arrived at Paris, after what had happen- ed on the 10th of Auguft, nobody could hope for mercy in that city. The Sans Culottes had begun the attack on the palace, and had been feconded by the national guards. Now as they forced all the other inhabitants to bear arms, every inhabitant, women and children not excepted, was comprehended in the revolt. The natural confequence of threatning fuch a numerous body of people, who had the national treafury at their com- mand, was, that they would in a fit of de- fpair meet their enemies with all the forces tl: y could mufter, and Co they did. A mul- titude, ( 3i ) titude, compofed of all ages and of both fexes, marched off to repulfe the enemy, who was exactly in fijch a fituation as rendered their numbers formidable : at no great diftance from Paris, fo that this multitude could eafily perform the journey, and not having proper fupplies either of men or provifions, could he have gained a battle, it is much more than probable that the Duke could never have arrived at Paris. His enemies, on the contrary, were prodigioufly numerous, actuated by de- fpair, and fupported with every thing they wanted. It was certainly only in hopes of be- ing feconded by a party of the peopje them- felves, that the Duke put himfelf in this fitua- tion, and he had probably been mifinformed; for though he might have had many friends who otherwife would have joined him, his ma- nifeilo rendered it impoffible for them to act ; indeed it took away their inclination; and tho* they might favour the royal caufe, few peo- ple were ready to join againft their fellow- citizens to put his threats in execution. Not- withstanding the advantages which the French had of meeting their enemy in a {Ick and fa- miilied condition, in the heart of their coun- try, in far inferior numbers, it is much doubted ( 32 ) doubted whether, if a battle had been given, they would not have loft it ; and though Du- mourier, certainly with a great {hare of art and much to his praife, contrived to gain time till nothing but a fhameful retreat was pofTible for his enemies, yet did he not once dare to attack that difeafed army in its re- treat ; infomuch that all Europe imagined there was a fort of peace made with the King of PrufTia. That this was not the cafe has fince heen clearly evident, and Dumourier's enterpriling fpirit gives every reafon to be- lieve, that if then he did not a during thelaft campaign, the moil: favourable thatwas poffible for armies fuch as France poiTeffes; yet is there not a fingle inftance when with equal numbers they have gained either a battle or a ikirmifh. At Jemappe their number was treble that of the enemy, and though it was their artillery that obtained them the vic- tory, they loft more than four times as many tnen as their enemies. The numbers who have perifhed from cold, hunger, and dif- eafe ( 35 ) cafe amongft the French, as well as in fkir- mimes, are as furprifingly great, as by the ftatements to the National Aflembly they ap- pear furprifingly frnall ; even at Paris the people are not the dupes of that artifice, for thofe volunteers who have returned have fometimes told the truth, though it is clear they dare not make it public. The prefent campaign, whether England had been engaged in it or not, muft be very different from the laft. The King of Prufiia and the whole Empire (before it was but the Emperor, as King of Hungary and Bohemia) fight for their own political existence, and therefore will fight well ; from being auxilia- ries they are become principals ; inftead of beginning in the month of Auguft they are now nearly ready to begin, and they will not a fecond time be deceived with regard to the ftate of the country, neither is it likely that they will publiih manifeflos of the fame na- ture. The finances of France are prodigioufly more exhaufted fince that period, and the re- mains of the unfortunate Houfe of Bourbon, E 2 the ( 36 ) the Dauphin excepted, who is too young t« reign, and is befides a prifoner, are all with the confederate armies ; and will enter France to claim what a great part of the nation ftill think their right, the throne of their an- ceftors. As to difcipline, it will not be much me- liorated in the French armies fince laft year, becaufe thefe foldiers of liberty quit their pofl when they chufe, and the new armies will be formed this fpring chiefly from raw re- cruits. Such are the profpects of France with re- fpect to her German enemies ; on the fide of Savoy alfo there will certainly be a diverfion furricient to divide her forces, occupy a part of her attention, and exhaufl her finances. Let us now come to the poffible exertions of France againit England and Holland. The manning and commanding of a navy is a very different thing from fending out a land army like Dtimourier's, for it depends not upon multitudes and numbers, and lcaft of ( 37 ) of all upon that impetuous effort which afts only for a few weeks. If with all the millions wafted, clothing for 400,000 -men could never be had, becaufe there is neither induftry nor arrangement in the country, clothing which could not coft one million fterling, how are the mips of a fquadron to be furnifhed with what is ne- ceffary ? For the marine of France, which never was equal to ours, there were about 1200 officers neceffary, and in laft Auguft there were not 200 at all the different ports. From the brave Albert de Rioms, down to the mid- shipman, almoft every officer was difgufted with that fyftem of equality, which by a fort of paradox, not eafily to be underftood, gave the crew the right of commanding, and there- fore impoled upon the officers a neceffity to obey. By land, fudden exertions may be made, and every man counts for a foldier, but it is not fo by fea ; the preparations are tedious, require care, and are after all limited in their extent. ( 38 ) extent. It is not here that the Marfeillois and the afTaffins from the garrets in the fuburbs of Paris, led on by valet de chambres and girls, will defend their country ^gainfr. our brave Engliih feamen, and experienced captains. I know, however, that the French will have men enough to man their navy, and more than they have mips to man, nor will thefe be landimen j having now little or no trade, they will eafily find feamen, and here it mould be obferved, that the poverty and mifery of the country ferves in fome mea- fure to give it ftrength, for all thofe men who are without work to do, and bread to ear, are ready to fly to its defence. The French marine wants officers, and it will be impoffible for them to equip, in a complete manner, above one^ialf of their mips. They want alfo difcipline ; for it is no exag- geration of the matter to fay, that the men will not obey their officers; and this is fo true, that many- officers who are well enough difpofed to defend their country, have left the fervice, merely becaufe they know that the ' men ( 39 ) men only obey whilft. it is their gcod pleafure fo to do, but that when they are difpleafed, they immediately put their captain in irons. To all this it is to be added, that France will require fupplies of corn and other pro- vifions by fea, next fummer, to prevent a famine, which a war with England will ren* der it impoffible for them to obtain. This may appear to be an arTertion made upon the faith of thofe rumours of famine already fpread, but it is not fo. By all ftatements, and amongft others thofe of Mr. Necker, France exported of grain of all forts, one year with another, the value of 10 millions Tournois, which is not enough to fupply the inhabitants of that country one fortnight. The quantity of grain exported on an average from any country, is the mea- fure of the furplus produced above what is confumed, which this ftatement proves to be very little. Ever fince the revolution began, France has been in want of grain, and obliged to have fupplies, becaufe the circulation in the interior, from one town to another, has been greatly 9 in- ( 4o ) interrupted, and becaufe agriculture has been in fome degree neglected. The circulation continues to be interrupt- ed, which caufe alone is fufficient to produce a partial famine ; and laft year the harvert was neglected more than ever : add to this, that the men in arms confume much more than men at home. From all thefe caufes a fa- mine is certain, if no fupplies come in from other countries. It is, moreover, certain, that neither laft year, nor the year before* were fo plentiful as the year 1790, and even then there was not enough for the home con- fumption, without foreign aid. / From the paper read by Mr. Kcrfaint to the Convention, on a \var with England, as well >as from citizen BrirTot's report, it would appear that their views extend to South Ame- rica and our territories in the Earl: and Weil Indies : fuch proportions, in the prefent cir- cumftances of France, are perfectly contemp- tible; and it is only in the Convention, or the Jacobin club, that the ignorance of men is great enough to liften to them without hifling the reader from his place. I* C4I ) tn the prefent war, England may likewifc reckon much upon the ignorance of all thole who are employed in the marine and war de- partments; as on purpofe to have, what they called, ftaunch patriots, they, laft year, turned out almofl all the clerks and fecretaries em- ployed, and put in Jacobins who know no- thing of the nature of thefe affairs. This will appear to be a fact of no fmall import* ance to thofe who know, that in great and complicated affairs, a knowledge of the rou- tine in which bufinefs has been ufed to go, is very neceffary. We may likewife, in this war, count upon that fpirit of contradiction which fruftrates exertion in every country whert there are people of different parties; and we may be affured, that the town council of Breft, and the other fea ports, will not always be of the fame opinion as the minifter of the ma- rine, who will therefore be croffed in many of his operations, as he has always been in every armament for St. Domingo. The injury that their privateers may do to our trade is the chief thing we have to fear ; F but ( 4* ) but even that is more imaginary than real ; for unlefs they can cope with us, or nearly fo, in mips of the line, the depredations by pri- vateers will not be of much importance. The queftion of War or peace, it was not my bufinefs to difcufs : I know not the fecret negociations, nor the concefiions which the French might make; but were I to have given my private opinion, it would have been, that unlefs France abandoned, in the moft. folemn and complete manner, all idea of fpreading her dominion, or extending her fyftem of equality into other nations, it would be beft for us to join in bringing her to reafon. Self- prefervation feems to be no lefs the law of political bodies than of individuals; and it is certain, that mould France fucceed in her projects on the Continent, England muft in the end fubmit. I do not, indeed, imagine France would fucceed though England mould remain neuter; but the poffibility of her doing lb would, in that cafe, be greater, and for that reafon we ought, in prudence, to bear our part in putting an end to her career. War ( 43 ) War is certainly to be avoided, if with ho- nour and fafety it can. The blemngs of peace are ineftimable, and certainly more fo at this time than almoft at any other; but without France abandons her fyft'em of uni- verfal liberty, as (he calls it, our peace could have been of no long continuance ; nor can the leaft faith be given to her promifes, becaufe the avowed fyftem of the levellers is, that might creates right; and whatever they have the power and will to do, they think may lawfully be done. It feems very clear that from a war with France v/e have, at prefent, very little to fear; we may reft affured that it will be a fhort one; and I am convinced, that if we act in concert with the powers on the Continent, and if, in- stead of a bloody manifefto like the duke of Brunfwick's, a wife and mild one mall pre- cede the army that is to enter France, no- thing will be more acceptable to the great bulk of the French nation, than to fee order re- eftablifhed, in any manner that may form ibmething like a reafonabie government. F 2 The ( 44 ) The French have, both publicly and pri- vately, declared that they will fend one hun- dred thoufand men to invade this country: there is little doubt but they will attempt it, if it was for no other purpofe but to rid their country of part of its unfortunate and wretched inhabitants : whether they go to the bottom of the fea in their attempt to come over, or are deftroyed at the mouth of our cannon, would be of no confequence to the National Convention, as from the effect of their proceedings, a famine muft, in a fhort time, take them off were they to ftay in their own country. By their equality they have deftroyed nobi- lity and gentry ; of courfe, all artizans in every branch of bufinefs tending to luxury, are out of employ, and are obliged to live as a prey upon the public. For inftance : What would become of the tradefmen in London, and the public at large, were the nobility and gentry to be chafed out of the country ? This muft be better felt than it can be de- fcribed, as it is well known to every indivi- dual, that all arts, fciences, and trade, have flourished, and ftill profper, by the wants of the great and opulent of this kingdom. There ( 45 ) There are many perfons in the world to whom vengeance is fweetj and perhaps it is unfortunately but too true, that the violent proceedings of the French make them very proper objects of anger. But revenge ought never to be the ruling paflion of man in any cafe, and leaft of all ought it to be ever directed againft a multitude, in which great numbers muft be innocent, others ignorant, and only a few guilty. Though I am, and never have concealed it, even when I ran fome perfonal rifk, a great enemy to the French democrats: though I know their villainy, and the unfairnefs of their way of reafoning, I am far from thinking the majority of the nation guilty ; on the contrary in Paris, where the guilt is certainly the greateft, I am certain that nine out of ten de- ferve cenfure, only for not having had courage enough to act when it was neceffary. Men, individually brave, do not always act in civil broils as if they were fo ; becaufe, as no fingle exertion can produce any good effect, they only act when they have confidence in others who will act with them. Now, very unfor- ( 46 ) unfortunately for the inhabitants of Paris, as they had been accuftomed to a fort of implicit obedience in affairs of government, and were obliged all at once to become governors, ignorant at the fame time of the true bafis of liberty, and its firft principles, which it is too late for men to learn on a fudden at years of maturity, there could be no unity nor mutual confidence among them : nor could even the great neceffity of the cafe unite the inhabitants of a city, formerly drowned in luxury and pleafure; and, ever fince its revolt, the fport of intrigue. Before the Revolution, France was infi- nitely too much corrupted for its inhabitants to take advantage of the feeble flate of its Monarch, fo as to eftabliih liberty ; which to men of purer manners and of a lefs volatile character, would, at one time, have been not very difficult. At prefent it is only by wading through oceans of blood, and letting adverfity and time teach wifdom to them, that' they can ever gain this end. Nay, it is much more probable that they will fall under the hand of fome defpot before they can accomplifh their deiign ; for at prefent, governed as they are by ( 47 ) by the lower order of people, who are the dupes and agents of the moft defigning amongft themfelves, Revolution muft follow Revolution, until poverty, and equality in mifery, will put an end to the conteft ; for as long as they who take the lead can have the means of enriching themfelves, others, who want to be rich alfo, will overturn them and take their place, as it has happened already. It is unlucky that in England any lan- guage, truly defcriptive of thefe proceedings, and of the perfons who govern Paris, is dif- graceful, and feems like the language of anger and prejudice. Fads feem exaggera- tions -, and fuch epithets as fuit the cafe, can only, with propriety, be ufed at Eillingfgate. I mall not therefore attempt to defcribe the manner in which Paris governs France, but mall beg leave literally to tranflate language which I myfelf have heard employed by the people in the gallery of the National Ailembly to its members ; and language which had the immediate effect of making the Affembly obey. I never was lucky enough to be pre- fent at a very tumultuous debate. This is a fpecimen of what paffed on every ordinary day, r when ( 48 ) when any queflion that interefted the court, or his late majefty, was difcuifed*. Upon a queftion feeming to go in favour of the king, the galleries rofe, and faid, with violent geftures and menaces, " Go home, ** you rafcalsj you men hired at eighteen " millings a day -, you don't deferve them* " Shame, fhame, you betray us ; we are t( your mafters ; you are but deputies paid -, " you have fold us to the civil lift, you " anointed curs ; but we know how to be " revenged upon rafcals like you, who were " eat up with poverty and lice till we took " you into pay, and you dare to betray the " nation, you dogs!" I can only fay, that the French expreflions were yet flronger than thofe I give. This happened in an evening fitting. I was in what is called " The Suppleant's Gallery," * The queflion was concerning the terrace in the garden of the Thuilleries, which garden being frmt, they wanted to make public, and by means of that queftion to animate the people againft the king } in which they fucceeded very rapidly, and very completely. which [ 49 3 which had but few people in it, though the public galleries were very full. The efrecl: of thefe threats was inftantane- ous ; and on counting the voices the third time, for the queftion had been divided, it was found to be determined againft the king, aeainft juftice, and againft common fenfe. Such was, and ft ill continues to be, the man- ner in which the violent party triumphs over the majority, upon all occafions, in which it is thought to be worth while. Yet the na- tion in which laws are fo pafled, pretends to be free, and to prefent an example worthy the imitation of all the world. It is not from men governed in this manner that Eng- land has any thing to fear; and it is fur- prifing that there mould be men in England ib loft to every fenfe of fhame as to praife the French government; and what adds con- fiderably to the difgrace of fome fuch perforts is, that they know, perfectly well, that what I now have faid about the galleries is ftriclly true. It is notorioufly known to all the world, that on the 10th of Auguft the Aflembly pafled decrees at the requeft of every black- guard who appeared at the bar, without fo much as enquiring their names, in many G cafes 5 ( 5° ) cafes ; and all the decrees parTed unanimoufly for feveral days. Thus a ragged fellow, without coat or hat, and covered with blood, appeared in the name of the nation, and demanded the de- throning of the king; others demanded a repubhc, and a convention, liberty and equa- lity; and, fince that time, it is by the fame means that they have brought their unhappy monarch to the block; loading him, during his confinement, with abufe, from which, if his former quality of king, if even his vir- tues and love of his people could not exempt him, he mould at leaft have been fhielded by his misfortunes. The French nation is in a ftate of mad- r-efs and rage, dangerous to thofe who, with- out precaution, approach too near, as indi- vidual madmen are; but to thofe who, tak- ing the proper meafures, attack them where they arc lead able to refill:, the danger can be but fmall, and even then muft be but of fhort duration. Without plan, without or- der, and without induftry, what nation can long be formidable ? and that the French have any one of thefe • r at requiiites to all fuccefs, I defy their molt firm friends and 4 itrongeft ( 5' ) ftrongeft advocates to prove ; and till they can do fo, I mu ft perfift in thinking my conclufions no lefs juft and incontrovertible, than I truft they will prove ia-lutary to the nation, in preventing all unreafonable appre- henfion or defpondency. FINIS. A Splendid Edition, of BARLOW's ^SOP's FABLES, by Subfcription. In the Prefs, and fpeedily "iM ^e publifhed, in Two Volumes, elegantly printed on a Superfine Wove Elephant Gcfavo, (n Inches by 7) and embelliined with One Hundred aad Fourteen beautiful Copper t'lates, from Barlow's Defi^ns, and engraved by Hall, Ma z ell, Eastgate, Grainger, Wilson, Audi net, Medland, --celton, Cromeck, Elake, Leney, Corner, Lovegro , &c. &c. Price to Subfcribers, Tivo Guineas in Boards, T H E FABLES OF M S O P. 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