LIBRARY OF THE University of California. ©I FT OF J^'\. ^^^^^ks3sJlki\ ^Lc<..,A^a.^u^ Lo Cldss ^ 17.1 An Analysis of the Banking and Currency System of tfie United States INDICATING THE CAUSE OF PERIODIC PANICS AND SUGGESTING A REMEDY BY CHAS. W. DISBROW 27 lBic^5' OF THE UNfVERSlTY } OF / Presented by The United States Fidelity and Guaranty Co. of Baltimore, Maryland ^ ANNOUNCEMENT Believing that one of the most important subjects before the American people to- day is the reform of our Banking and Currency System, we take pleasure in presenting herewith some thoughts on the subject prepared by Mr. Chas. W. Disbrow, of St. Louis, Mo., manager of the Missouri Department of this company.* Mr. Disbrow has been connected with this company for many years, and while manager of its Mountain Department, with headquarters at Denver, Colo., was empowered by it to underwrite bank depository bonds, guaranteeing the sol- vency of banks. This brought him in the closest possible touch with the indi- vidual banks of the West, and made him familiar with the entire banking situation. We believe his views will be received with interest. THE UNITED STATES FIDELITY AND GUARANTY COMPANY JOHN R. BLAND, President Baltimore, Md., December 20, 1909. o.'^^P" 'r%/ COPYRIGHT i9iQ BY CHAS. W. DISBROW ....INTRODUCTION.... This pamphlet is designed to show that the periodic financial panics in the United States result from certain fixed and specific causes, and that an analysis of these causes indicates that the approach of such panics may be clearly noted and effectually prevented. It is designed to show that of the existing currency in the nation, only a portion finds its way into the banks. That with a given quantity of currency in the banks only a definite amount of credit can be extended by the banks. That periodically, owing to the growth of bi^siness and the expansion of bank loans, the entire banks of the nation reach the extreme limit of their loaning capacity and can grant no more credit, with the result that a ''capital famine" ensues, imme- diately affecting all branches of industry and precipitating a financial panic. J It is also designed to show that all of our currency is based upon and supported by the gold in circulation ; that a given quantity of gold will only support a given quantity of paper, and that we shall invite commercial disaster and national dishonor by injecting too much paper into our circulation ; so that there is a definite limit to the quantity of currency. The amount of our currency can not be indefinitely increased, and it is therefore necessary to get the greatest possible use out of the currency that we have, and to so regulate our affairs that we shall get along on the credit that can safely be granted with such amount of currency. It is the opinion of the writer that the trouble with our existing system is two-fold: First. That there is no machinery for the regulation and control of bank loans and credits, and no method by which a gradual check can be placed upon the expansion of bank credits when the reserves of currency run low. Second. That there is no adequate organization among the banks for mutual support, and, therefore, each individual bank must keep on hand in a dead reserve fund too large an amount of currency, with the result that the amount of bank credit that can be granted is unduly limited. The remedy suggested is the creation of a Central Bank with strictly limited powers which shall hold the surplus reserves of all of the banks, and also the moneys of the National Government, and which shall use such moneys solely for the purpose of rediscounting short- term bank paper. This will enable the individual banks to safely operate on small cash reserves, as they will be in position to obtain more currency instantly from the Central Bank while there is any surplus currency available in the nation; while the Central Bank, by manipulating the rate of discount, can regulate and control the entire bank loans of the nation. The said bank should have no power to issue paper money except temporary emergency paper strictly limited in amount. The first portion of this pamphlet is devoted to the study of the uses of currency, and the quantity needed to properly carry on the business of this nation; the second part to a discussion of what that currency shall be composed and the third part to the proposed remedy. In dealing with these questions the report of the Comptroller of the Currency of the United States for 1908 is used, and the figures showing the condition of the banks as of November 12, 1906, is made the basis of computation. A copy of the material parts of this report is' attached to this pamphlet for greater clearness. The term currency is used to include all kinds of money, whether specie or paper. In the opinion of the writer, there is nothing vitally wrong with the currency system of the United States, and the only changes in the existing laws necessary to establish an ideal banking and currency system are to repeal the provisions of the National Bank Act relating to reserves, to abolish the Independent Treasury System, and to create a Central Bank with strictly limited powers, as above indicated. Quantity There are two main questions involved in the currency discussion, first how much currency is needed to properly carry on the business of the nation ; and, second, of what that currency shall be composed. In order to ascertain the quantity of currency needed it is necessary to note clearly for what purposes currency is used and the exact work it does. From the report of the U. S. Comptroller of the Currency it appears that the total currency of all kinds in the United States on November 12, 1906, was a little over three billion dollars. This currency was divided into three portions and served three separate and distinct purposes. USES OF CURRENCY The first portion consisted of $325,000,000 lying in the vaults of the United States Treasury and its branches. This portion enabled the government to carry on an independent banking system of its own for its own purposes. Currency in payment of taxes and customs is col- lected by the government agents and deposited in the Treasury; and payments by the government are made by drafts on the Treasury. The government frequently deposits with national banks a portion of this currency, but the report of the U. S. Comptroller shows that at no time since 1900 has there been less than $284,000,000 in currency in the Treasury vaults, nor has it amounted to above $349,000,000. The gov- ernment may or may not really need this vast amount of currency; perhaps it would be very much better if it was in general circulation; but the fact remains that it has it, and has had it for many years. The amount of currency >in the Treasury is likely to be greatest during times of the greatest national prosperity, because at such times the government revenues from imports and internal taxes are the greatest. The second portion consisted of $1,733,000,000 in the hands of the people, in general circulation outside of the banks, being $20.48 per head of population. This portion served the purpose of a medium of exchange for small transactions. While the great bulk of commercial payments are made with bank checks, yet there are a vast mass of petty transactions that call for the direct use of currency, and for that reason every one carries more or less currency on his person, and every merchant carries more or less currency in his petty cash drawer for making change, etc. There is also a vast quantity of currency paid out daily for wages, and, while this currency quickly finds its way back to the banks, there is always a large quantity of it afloat outside of the banks. The more prosperous the times the more currency the people will carry on their persons and the more currency will be afloat outside of the banks for petty cash transactions. The men standing in the bread lines during hard times are not likely to have any currency in their pockets — the same men working for good wages during prosperous times are very sure to have some currency with them. The amount of currency that 80,000,000 people keep at all times outside of the banks is enormous. During the prosperous times of 1893 it amounted to $16.14 per head. During the hard times following 1893 it dropped to $13.65 per head, and then steadily increased as times became better, being $17.11 in 1900, $18.77 in 1904 and $20.48 per head, or $1,733,- 000,000 in 1906, as above shown. Some of this $20.48 per capita may have been ''hoarded," but there was no apparent reason for people to hoard money prior to November, 1906, for we were then in the midst of the most prosperous times the world had ever seen ; stocks were at the highest point and there was not a cloud on the financial horizon — following that date when stocks began to drop in value there might have been reason for uneasiness, and people might have ''hoarded" their money, but the reverse was the case, because the report of the comptroller for 1907 shows that by June 30, 1907, the amount of currency held by the people had dropped to $19.36 per head, or to $1,686,000,000 — so that during the very period that is is claimed the people were "hoarding," they actually gave up to the banks nearly $100,000,000. If figures ever meant anything, these figures certainly disprove the charge that the money stringency of 1907 was caused by "hoarding" by the people. But for whatever reason the people hold out and keep afloat outside of the banks this vast mass of currency — more than one-half the total supply, the fact remains that they do hold it, always have held it and" have it now — and the more prosperous the times the more they will have. The third portion consisted of $1,010,000,000 in the hands of the banks, this being the balance of currency left after the government had taken what it desired for its Independent Treasury system, and the people had taken what they desired for their individual purposes. The banks are but the custodians of the people's money and have only that currency which is voluntarily left with them after all other purposes have been served ; hence the more prosperous the times the less currency the banks will have, because it is at such times that the demands of the government and the people are the greatest. This currency in bank served the purpose of a reserve for the sup- port of the deposit liabilities, and was in fact the only foundation for the vast credit system of the nation. It is to be presumed that the government had taken all of the cur- rency that it desired for its purposes because it had to its credit with many banks large sums and could have called upon such banks for pay- ment of such credits in currency ; and it is to be presumed that the people had taken all the currency they needed, for they could have taken it all had they so desired; had the banks needed more currency, however, they could not have obtained same, as there was no more currency in existence. The question of how much currency is needed in the nation, there- fore, can be answered by ascertaining whether the banks had, in fact, a sufficient quantity of currency for all legitimate purposes, and if not, how much more was needed and for how long a period. To answer this requires a brief analysis of the banking system. "WORKING CAPITAL" Before the invention of banking currency served but one purpose — it was merely a medium of exchange and was the only such medium. In every transaction calling for the payment of money the actual currency had to be delivered. Since the invention of banking a small amount of currency in bank supports a large volume of bank deposits, which deposits are, in fact, mere entries on the books of the banks showing that the depositors are entitled to draw money from the banks. In the majority of transactions of today calling for the pay- ment of money a check or order is drawn on a bank which check or order is accepted in place of currency, thus serving as a medium of exchange the same as currency. Theoretically, it is currency, because the banks will pay the actual currency on demand, but practically no currency is used — the check or order goes through the clearing house where it is offset by other checks, and the entire transaction is com- pleted by mere bookkeeping entries without the use of a dollar of actual currency. The total deposits in the banks of this nation, November, 1906, was $12,000,000,000 and checks might have been drawn and issued up to this amount, yet the banks had but $1,000,000,000 of actual currency with which to pay same, or about one dollar of currency for twelve dol- lars of deposits. Had this one dollar not been there the banks would have been declared insolvent and the entire $12,000,000,000 of deposits would have been wiped out, yet with the machinery the banks have devised whereby one check is offset by other checks, and through the universal use of banks by the people and the confidence the people have in the banks, this one dollar of currency is found ample to support this twelve dollars of deposits ; hence while a dollar of currency in the hands of the government or the people can do only the work of a dollar, a dollar of currency in bank may support and keep at work twelve other dollars. A bank deposit is a potential medium of exchange, because a check can be issued up to the amount of such deposit and will be accepted in place of currency. The total amount of the available medium of ex- change in the nation is the bank deposits against which checks may be issued, plus the currency in the hands of the people. This medium of exchange may be termed "working capital." Business can not be carried on without the use of "working capital." No merchant can carry on a business without an adequate amount of currency or credit balance at the bank against which he can draw. It is immaterial how- much real estate or other kind of wealth he may possess — he can not pay his bills and meet his payrolls without actual currency or bank credit. -He can not pay wages with stocks and bonds or with promissory notes, nor can he pay for material with deeds to real estate. The amount of business a merchant can transact is strictly limited by the total amount of currency or bank credit he has ; and it follows that the amount of business that can be transacted in a nation is strictly limited by the total amount of currency and bank credit in such nation. A merchant possessing but $10,000 in currency and bank credit can not transact a Marshall-Field business — and a nation of merchants with little currency or bank credit, like Italy, can not do a United States business. Without "working capital" business must practically cease. The great bulk of our "working capital" consists of bank deposits. Bank deposits are mere entries on the books of the banks. Let us see how these entries come to be made. HOW BANK DEPOSITS ARE CREATED When an individual deposits to his credit in bank a check drawn to his order by another, his individual bank credit is thereby increased, but the bank credit of the individual drawing the check is correspond- ingly decreased — the banks merely make entries on their books credit- ing the first depositor and debiting the second — the sum total of the bank deposits of the nation has not been changed by the transaction. Hence it is seen that no matter how many checks are drawn against bank deposits and redeposited in the same or other banks, the sum total of bank deposits is not increased or diminished by a dollar ; neither will the withdrawal of currency from one bank and its redeposit in another affect the sum total of deposits. But when a bank grants a loan or discount to its customer the amount of such loan or discount is at once placed to the credit of such customer on the books of the bank, and thereby the bank deposits have become increased by the amount of the loan. If the customer issues checks against this deposit such checks will be redeposited to the credit of someone else, or if he draws out the cash it will naturally flow back through the channels of trade into some bank, as a deposit, so that so long as the loan remains unpaid the bank deposits of the nation will be increased liy the amount of the loan. The same effect is produced if the bank invests its general funds in securities or commodities. Money so paid out by the bank will flow back into some bank as a new deposit, but will not be charged against any existing deposit. Creating or importing new money and depositing it in bank will, of course, increase the deposits by such amount, but this forms but an immaterial part of the deposits of the nation. The great bulk of the deposits are due to existing unpaid bank loans and discounts and investments made directly by banks in the purchase of securities, commercial paper, etc. A LIMIT TO THE EXPANSION OF BANK CREDIT The amount of the bank deposits of the nation therefore depends upon the amount of bank loans and bank investments ; but such loans and investments can not be made indefinitely. No matter what secur- ity is offered or how enticing the terms, there is a limit to the amount of bank loans and bank investments, and hence there is a corresponding limit to the amount of ''working capital" that can be created. It is the object of every banker to loan out or invest the money m his charge in order that it may bring a return to the bank in the form of interest, but the banker can not loan out or invest every dollar placed with him by his depositors ; he must keep on hand sufficient currency to meet the daily demands. This is termed a reserve. The amount of reserve that a bank will carry depends upon : first, the law, if any, gov- erning the bank; and second, the policy of the bank. All national banks and the state banks of some States are compelled by law to keep a certain definite amount of currency on hand for every dollar of deposits on the books, ranging from six cents in country districts to twenty-five cents in central reserve cities. Such legal reserve is abso- lutely dead currency and can not be used at any time, no matter what the needs of the banks or the demands of the depositors. So such banks must keep a sufficient amount of currency on hand in addition to the legal reserve, to sei-ve as a working capital of their own. Banks not handicapped by a reserve law can use every dollar of the reserve in case of emergency (which is what a reserve should be for), and, therefore, need not keep so large an amount of dead currency on hand ; neverthe- less, every bank must keep on hand actual currency proportioned to the amount of its deposit liabilities. It is immaterial how much money the bank may have deposited to its credit with some other bank — the point* is that it must keep in its own vaults a certain amount of actual cur- rency for "every dollar of deposit liabilities. Every banker must decide for himself, based on his knowledge of the probable needs of his customers at different seasons of the year, just how much cash reserve he will carry. If he carries too much he will lose interest on same; if he carries too little he will be unable to meet the daily demands of his customers and is liable to have a run on the bank. Whatever he carries will be dead currency — ''tied up" — locked in the bank vaults and not usable. The bank deposits are mere entries on the books of the bank, but for every dollar so entered the banks must hold in their vaults a certain amount of actual currency; so that if the deposits in a bank grow to such a point that all the currency in that bank is tied up as a reserve, that bank can make no more loans. It follows that if the deposits in all the banks of the nation grow to such a point that all the currency in all the banks is tied up for reserve, then none of the banks can make any loans ; and if no loans can be made the deposits can not increase further and no more "working capital" can be created. Hence, the amount of bank loans and discounts that can be granted and the amount of bank deposits that can be created is strictly limited by the amount of currency in bank. RELATION BETWEEN CURRENCY AND BANK CREDIT The fact that currency is constantly flowing into one window of a bank and flowing out of another, day after day, leads many to think, in a hazy way, that there is a great stream of currency of indefinite extent that may be dipped into at will by any one who has the proper security to offer in exchange ; but when we examine the statistics and note that there is only a certain definite supply of currency; that for many years past there has always been a large part of it tied up in the vaults of the government; that the reports sent to the U. S. Comp- troller four times a year for many years show an enormous and steadily increasing amount always in the hands of the people outside of the banks ; and when we realize that the government can not be forced to give up the currency it holds and that the amount in the hands of the people is too widely distributed in too small amounts to be available, the fact is borne in upon us that instead of a stream of currency of indefinite extent the only currency available for those needing it, no matter what gilt-edged security they have to offer for it, is the actual currency in banks. There is also a popular impression that there is no limit to the ex- pansion of bank loans and that any one at any time can get any bank loan desired providing he has the proper collateral ; but we have seen that no individual bank can grant a loan unless it has sufficient available currency on hand over and above its reserve ; and it follows that the collective banks of the nation cannot grant a loan if there is no loose cash in any of the banks over and above the reserve. Because the bank account of an individual is increased largely through his thrift and ability to make a profit from his business dealings it seems to be presumed that an increase in the total bank deposits of the nation indicates general thrift and general profit-making. But a mo- ment's thought will show that ^^hatever profit one makes must be paid for by some other ; and it certainly requires no argument to prove that the total bank deposits of the nation are not increased or diminished by the mere transferrence of a bank deposit from one individual to another individual or from one bank to another bank. It will be seen, therefore, that there is an intimate relation be- tween (l) currency in bank, (2) percentage of cash reserve held against deposits, (3) bank loans and discounts and bank investments, and (4) bank deposits. A change in any one of these items produces a direct effect upon the other three. Bank deposits cannot increase unless bank loans and discounts are granted or direct investments are made by the banks. The banks cannot make such loans and discounts or investments unless (a) there is currency in bank over and above what is needed for reserve, or (b) the percentage of cash reserve held against deposits is reduced, thus releasing the cash from the reserve chests and making it available for loans. Inversely, if bank loans are paid off, the bank deposits are correspondingly de- creased, and this releases currency, from the reserve fund, and such currency is at once available for further loans. The quantity of currency needed in the nation therefore depends upon the amount of "working capital" needed in the nation. To increase the "working capital^" it is necessary to increase the bank loans in order that the deposits may increase. Increase in deposits calls for a propor- tionate increase in the reserve. Reserve means currency. Hence, if bank loans are to be increased indefinitely, then the quantity of currency 10 OF must be increased indefinitely. If bank loans are not to be increased then no more "working capital" can be created. Without an increase in "working capital" the business of the nation cannot expand. CONDITION PRECEDING THE PANIC OF 1907 Was the i,oio million dollars in the hands of the banks in Novem- ber, 1906, a sufficient quantity of currency to enable the banks to create as much "working capital" as was then needed to meet the legitimate demands of business ? The report of the U. S. Comptroller of the currency for 1908, shows that on November 12, 1906, the banks of the nation had practically reached a state of deadlock — that is to say, their deposits had increased to such an extent that nearly all the currency in bank was tied up for reserve and there was little or no currency available for loans or invest- ments ; therefore no more "working capital" could be created. On page 212 of said report is a statement showing the deposits in the various classes of national banks, the cash reserve required by law to be held against such deposits and the actual currency in the banks. From this it will be noted that all the National Banks in the three Central Reserve Cities (New York, Chicago, and St. Louis) had deposit liabiHties of $1,128,900,000, against which the reserve required to be held in cash was $278,300,000 and that the actual currency in the hands of such banks was $281,800,000, so that these banks had but $3,500,000 of money they could use over and above the dead reserve that could not be used. This $3,500,000 was the total working capital of sixty-one of the Nation's greatest banks in the three -financial centers of the United States. It was all these banks had to meet the daily demands of their customers. If they had made loans of only $14,000,0^, thereby increasing their deposits that much, they would have had no working capital left and the withdrawal of any currency by a depositor would have impaired the legal reserve apd made the banks technically insolvent. It is seen therefore that these great banks had reached the practical limit of their loaning capacity and could create no more "working capi- tal" unless (a) they could get more currency, or (b) they were per- mitted to operate on a smaller percentage of cash reserve. It will also be noted that all the National Banks in the other re- sen^e cities (293 banks in about forty cities) had deposit liabilities of $1,372,500,000 against which the cash reserve (12^/^%) required, was $165,400,000, and that such banks actually had but $167,400,000, or only two million dollars of working capital over and above the reserve. Had loans of only $8,000,000 been made, this working capital would have been tied up in the reserve. Hence it follows that all the national banks of the principal cities of the nation had practically reached the limit of their loaning capacity, unless (a) they could get more currency, or (b) the percentage of cash reserve had been decreased. It will also be noted that all other national banks in the nation ( 5845 in number) had deposits of 2468.5 million dollars against which a cash reserve of 13 1.5 million dollars (6%) was required, and that the banks 11 actually had 185.3 niiHion dollars of currency, leaving only 53.8 million dollars as a working capital for nearly six thousand banks, an average of less than $10,000 per bank, and an average reserve of only seven and a half dollars of cash for every one hundred dollars of deposit liabilities. Will any sane man claim that the practical loaning capacity of these banks had not been reached, unless (a) they could get more currency, or (b) the percentage of cash reserve had been decreased ? The same report, page 31, gives a statement of ''Consolidated returns from State, Savings, Private Banks and Loan and Trust Companies" as of the year 1906, but not as of any specified date in said year. From this it appears that the total cash on hand in such banks was 334.9 million dollars which supported deposits of 8,159.8 milHon dollars or an average of four dollars in cash for every one hundred dollars of deposits. Is it not apparent that these banks had reached the limit of their loaning capacity, unless they could get more currency? Many eminent financiers have contended that the cash reserves of the banks were entirely too low at that time, and that in the future the banks should be compelled by law to maintain greater cash reserves. Without going into the question it is quite apparent that the cash reserves of the banks of the nation, taken as a whole, were as low as they could go in safety, and hence the banks could make no more loans. It follows that the bank deposits could not be further increased. Hence, in November, 1906, the entire banks of the nation had reached a state of deadlock — they could get no more currency, there being none except that held tightly by the Government and by the people; without currency they could make no loans or investments; unless bank loans and investments were made the bank deposits could not increase, and no more "working capital" could be created. We have now shown that the quantity of currency needed in this nation depends upon the amount of "working capital" that is needed in the nation, the said "working capital" consisting principally of bank deposits created by bank loans ; and have also shown that on November 12, 1906, the banks of the nation had reached the limit of their capacity to make loans, and, therefore, no more "working capital" could be created, forcing the business of the nation to get along on the "working capital" it had, about $14,000,000,000. CAUSE OF PANIC OF 1907 The sole question in the case, therefore, is was there enough "work- ing capital" at that time and what was the effect of shutting off the supply of new "working capital." At that time, November 12, 1906, the great wave of •business expan- sion and development that had started about 1900 had brought about the greatest era of prosperity the nation had ever known. Factories were working night and day creating stocks of merchandise, new fac- tories were being erected, great irrigation works were being con- structed, every railroad was improving its roadbed and purchasing new rolling stock, new railrqads were being constructed in every part of the 12 nation, the demand for laborers was so great that wages were advanc- ing in every branch of industry, and the daily payroll, paid mostly in currency, was steadily increasing in amount. All of this new work required "working capital.'' To meet the demand the banks had been steadily increasing their loans and direct investments and the bank deposits had grown steadily larger. The new currency created during this period was but $775,000,000, but the banks had expanded their loans and investments to such an extent that the bank deposits increased from $7,235,000,000 in 1900, to $12,196,- 000,000 in 1906, or about $5,000,000,000. But as the times became more prosperous the government drew more and more currency ' into the vaults of the national treasury, piling up over $300,000,000 of it, thus sucking the life blood from the arteries of trade. The people receiving more wages than ever before, were carrying a steadily increas- ing amount of currency on their persons, as it was perfectly natural and proper for them to do. , So the banks found it increasingly difficult to retain currency at the very time that the bank deposits were expanding and the needs of the currency for the reserve chests was increasing. The tim.e finally came, as it mu^t always come in .every great wave of business expansion, when all the currency the banks had or could obtain from any source was tied up in the reserve chests and every bank in the nation had to cease making loans. Immediately there arose a cry of ''money stringency" and it was alleged that the people were ''hoarding." The newspapers took up this cry and implored the people to give up their currency. The people responded to this cry and actually-gave up to the banks over $100,000,000 of currency, reducing their pfcr capita holdings from $20.48 to $19.36. The banks used this additional currency, to increase the loans, so that bank deposits were expanded another $500,000,000, but the demand for "working capital" was greater than the supply. All over the nation there was partially completed work that could not be left in its uncompleted state and had to have "working capital" to complete it. Stocks, bonds and other securities were offered for sale in great quantities by those who had to have "working capital" at any price, with the result of greatly depress- ing the quoted prices for such securities on the stock exchange. This, in turn, not only created a feeling of fear and unrest among the people, but constantly decreased the loaning value of all kinds of collateral. A movement of this kind can not go far without culminating in a finan- cial panic, and the panic of 1907 followed. This panic was the natural, necessap^ and inevitable consequence of the business of the nation expanding to such a point that the existing "working capital" of the entire nation was exhausted and it had to have more "working capital," while no more could be created because as much had already been created as the currency in bank would support, and the banks could get no more currency. Five thousand million dollars of "working capi- tal" had been created by the banks in six years, but James T. Hill, in the spring of 1907, in a public speech stated that the railroads alone at that time needed $1,000,000,000 more to complete work already under way. 13 PERIODIC PANICS DUE TO THE EXHAUSTION OF BANK CREDIT This nation is subject to periodic panics which invariably occur during times of the greatest prosperity and as a culmination of an era of expanding business. There should be no mystery about these panics — they are the natural and logical consequences of our banking and currency system; and the coming of such panics can be foretold with mathematical certainty if the figures showing the movements of cur- rency are available. When this nation gets into one of its booms of expansion and development the demand for ''working capital" is enor- mous. The banks supply this "working capital" either by direct' pur- chase of stocks, bonds, commercial paper, etc., or by making loans to the promoters of new enterprises, or by making loans to third parties who invest in such new undertakings. Finally the time comes when the banks can make no more loans and the supply of working capital , is suddenly shut off without notice. It is this sudden check that pro- duces the panic. In England they know just how far loans can expand, and they regulate them so that the supply of "working capital" is shut off gradually, as hereafter explained. There is one other phase of this subject which should be clearly understood. When a person buys something, giving in exchange for it either currency or a bank check, he has thereby converted his "work- ing capital" into fixed capital, but the said "working capital" has passed into the hands of another, and is just as good and usable in such new hands as it was before, so that at the very time of the panic of 1907 there was in existence over $14,000,000,000 of "working capital" that, if it could have been applied where it was needed, would have avoided the panic. We have shown that part of the currency itself was tied up in the reserve chests of the banks, and in the government vaults, and the balance of it was so widely distributed in such small quantities among our 80,000,000 people as to be unavailable. It can also be shown that the existing bank deposits of the nation were also "tied up." It is to be noted that the banks themselves can not touch the bank deposits — only the individual owners of the deposits can use same. Very few men keep idle in bank a larger sum than they deem neces- sary to meet their current demands. When a merchant finds that his balance is larger than he is likely to need for sometime he looks about for an investment in order that he may receive a return in interest. It is to be presumed, therefor, that the great bulk of the credit balances at the banks in November, 1906, was required by its owners for the current needs of such owners. If the owners of these bank deposits refused to issue checks against same they could not be used. A bank deposit that its owner won't use is just as effectively tied up as is cur- rency in the reserve fund of a bank that the bank can't use. Currency is "hoarded" when its possessor puts it in a secret place instead of depositing it in bank or permitting it to flow out into the channels of trade ; and a bank deposit is just as effectively hoarded when its owner refuses to draw a check against it — in either event working capital is tied up. u At that time tliere was over $3,000,000,000 of deposits in sav- ings banks, credited on the books of said institutions to their many thousand depositors. Had ^hese depositors purchased stocks and bonds or real estate, paying for same with checks or orders drawn on the said savings bank, there would have been no ''working capital famine;" on the contrary, the prices of stocks and bonds would have soared upwards. But these depositors could not be induced to part with their savings. This is shown by the fact that during the winter and spring of 1907 while stocks and bonds were oflfered at bargain prices the savings deposits actually increased, as shown by the report of the Comptroller. This is a perfect illustration of how bank deposits may be "tied up" or "hoarded." In order to meet the legitimate demands of the expanding business of the nation for "working capital" it is not only necessary that there shall be enough of such "working capital," but that it shall be available for the use of those who require it and have proper security to offer in exchange. The $3,000,000,000 of savings banks deposits held by thousands of small depositors who are notoriously skeptical of stocks, are certainly not available for the use of a railroad promoter, no matter how good a proposition he may have. We know from experience that the large business enterprises of the nation must look to the banks them- selves for their supply of "working capital." When the banks can make no more loans the main supply of "work- ing capital" is cut off. While individuals all over the nation may have surplus credit at the bank and are in position to purchase stocks, bonds, etc., or make loans, yet it is difficult and impracticable to reach such parties; and it may be safely stated that under our present system when the banks of the nation reach the limit of their loaning capacity a financial panic will follow. The quantity of currency that is needed in this nation depends there- fore upon, first, the amount the government requires for its independent ^ub-treasury system which averages close to $300,000,000. Second, the amount the people hold for their individual needs outside of the banks, apparently about $20.00 per capita. Third, the amount the banks must have for reserve against deposit liabilities. The amount the banks will need for reserve depends upon the amount of bank loans and invest- ments, and these in turn depend upon the demand for "working capital" to carry on the business of the nation. If the demand for "working capital" is unlimited, then bank loans must be granted indefinitely. If bank loans are granted indefinitely' then the quantity of currency must be expanded indefinitely, because a bank loan means a bank deposit, a bank deposit means reserve, and reserve means currency. If the quantity of currency is limited then the bank loans must be limited, the quantity of "working capital" limited and the business of the nation must be limited. 16 Quality The only real money in the leading commercial nations today is gold — all other forms of money are mere promises, express or implied, to pay gold. Silver might just as well have been chosen to serve as money, but as it was not chosen, it is not money. It is a mere commodity. A silver dollar would not pass current at its face value were it not for the implied promise of the government to give a gold dollar in exchange. Gold and silver were once used together as money and there was no practical objection to this in the days before the invention of banking, as in those more or less primitive days the slight fluctuation in the rela- tive value of the two metals was not of prime importance, but since the invention of banking one dollar of currency in bank supports an aver- age of twelve dollars of deposits, and every fluctuation in the value of that dollar is multiplied twelve or more times. If the depositors of the banks were permitted to demand payment of such deposits in either gold or silver, at their pleasure, when the deposits themselves consist of mere bookkeeping entries, created through extending bank loans, the slightest fluctuation in the market value of the two metals would be of the utmost consequence to the banks. The banks owe depositors $12,000,000,000 and have but $1,000,- 000,000 of currency with which to pay. If the depositors ' had the right to call for either gold or silver at their pleasure, then the slightest variation, real or imagined, in the relative values of the metals would have a tendency to cause depositors to withdraw from bank the dearer metal — and anything that tends to withdraw currency from bank is to be deplored. Such withdrawals can not be carried very far without producing a financial panic as it is impossible to pay $12,000,000,000 of deposits with $1,000,000,000 of currency. VALUE OF GOLD DOES NOT FLUCTUATE A dollar will not purchase as much today as it did twenty years ago. This has led to a theory that on account of the increased production of gold it is getting cheaper. There is nothing in this theory, but it will be advisable to dispose of it. Gold has a fictitious value and is the only commodity that has such fictitious value. The leading nations have agreed that a certain number of grains of gold shall constitute a unit of value. In America this unit is termed a dollar. This unit is a mere measure of value. If a bushel of wheat is priced at one dollar and a day's wages at three dollars, this means that the relative value of a bushel of wheat to a day's wages is as one to three. If the nations should decide to increase or diminish the number of grains of gold in a dollar this would not have the slightest effect upon the relative value of wheat to wages. If the producer of gold could take such gold to a jeweler and sell it for more dollars than it would represent if it was minted into coins then trouble would ensue instantly, but while the leading nations, the jewelers and gold dealers and the people agree that a certain num- ber of grains of gold shall constitute a unit of value, and the raw gold 16 is purchased and sold in terms of these same units, it is a theoretical impossibility that there should be the slightest fluctuation in the price or value of gold. REASON FOR HIGH PRICES OF COMMODITIES The reason that the purchasing capacity of a dollar is not as great today as formerly is not far to seek. If $100,000,000 of new currency is created (either gold or paper) and placed in bank, what is the effect ? The bank will not permit it to lie idle — it will be loaned out that it may earn interest. The borrowers must use the money so borrowed so that it will produce enough to pay the interest to the bank and a profit for themselves ; hence they use it in productive work, such as the construction of railroads, factories, mills, machinery, etc., and when it has thus all been expended for labor and material entering into such construction they go back to the bank to borrow more. Meanwhile the money so expended to the wage earners and material men has either at once been deposited back in bank by such parties to their own credit or has been expended by them to merchants and others for necessities, etc., and the merchants will have deposited it back in the bank, for the natural flow of money is from the bank out as a loan and back to the bank as a deposit. The banks are constantly paying out money, but money is constantly being rede- posited and the amount of money that remains in the hands of the people outside of the banks fluctuates very little from week to week. Hence, when the borrowers come back to the banks for more loans the original currency borrowed by them is back in bank ready to be again loaned out and again used for further construction. The process of loaning out money and receiving it again might be kept up indefi- nitely were it not for the necessity of holding a cash reserve in bank against deposits. If all of the banks were operating on a 25% reserve, as the Central Reserve Banks do, then the loans could continue until the deposits had reached $400,000,000, at which time the loans would cease, as the entire $100,000,000 of currency would be tied up for reserve. If all llie banks- operated on a 4% reserve, as the loan and trust companies did, then the loans might continue until the deposits ' amounted to $2,500,000,000 before the $100,000,000 of currency would be tied up for reserve. As some of our banks operate on one per- centage of reserve and some on another, it is impossible to tell the exact figure to which loans and deposits will grow from the creation of a given amount of currency, but the actual figures, November, 1906, show $12,000,000,000 of deposits to $1,000,000,000 of currency in bank. The average in this nation, therefore, seems to be about 12 to i. In England it is 16 to i. Hence, the effect of creating more currency is to put twelve times such amount to work in productive enterprises, thereby creating a demand for labor, increasing the price paid for labor ; thereby through the increased purchasing power of the wage earners increasing the demand for goods and thus naturally increasing the price paid for such goods. 17 The currency in this nation increased from $2,339,000,000 in 1900 to $3,115,000,000 in 1907, an increase of $775,000,000; and the bank deposits increased during the same period from $7,688,000,000 to $13,654,000,000, or nearly $6,000,000,000, of which $5,000,000,000 represent bank loans and bank investments. It is hardly necessary to advance arguments to show the effect upon prices of putting $5,000,000,000 to work. Everyone knows what hap- pened during the period betwen 1900 and 1907. Constructive work was going on in all directions and the demand for labor became so great that wages advanced in all lines of work — the common laborers, the foremen, the superintendents, the clerks, the managers and so on up the line all got better jobs and better pay than they had before. If 10,000,000 workmen and their families who are eating meat but once a week because they can not afford more, suddenly have their incomes increased so that they eat meat seven times a week, what is the effect upon the price of beef ? Until the supply regulates itself to the increased demand the price will necessarily be very high. The market for goods depends upon the inclination of the individual to buy and his ability to purchase. The ability of an individual to purchase depends upon his income or his accumulated wealth. The man without wealth or income can purchase nothing, no matter what his inclination. The wage earners receiving but a small stipend per week must deny himself all the luxuries and many of the necessities of life. Increase his wages and he is instantly able to pay more rent, eat better food and buy better clothes, etc., thus extending the market for these goods. The United States is the greatest market in the world because the wages are the highest and therefore the purchasing ability of the people greatest. China is a poor market because its teeming millions of people receive no wages worthy of the name and they there- fore have not the ability to purchase. The selling price of an article is governed by the law of supply and demand ; the cost of an article merely governs the volume of pro- duction. The producer sells his wares at the highest price he can get ; if this price is greater than the cost to him, his interest lies in greater production, if the price is less than the cost he naturally stops the production. An increase in the wages paid necessarily increases the cost of pro- ducing goods, and the selling price must be advanced to cover this increased cost. If the goods will not sell at the increased cost produc- tion will instantly cease, thus cutting off the supply. With the supply cut off the demand, if there is any, will exhaust the existing stock on hand, and, if the demand continues, the selling price will necessarily rise until it will be profitable to again produce. The effect of the general increase in wages, therefore, is two- fold : First, it necessarily increases the selling price by the amount of the extra cost of the labor entering into the production of the goods. Second, it increases the buying capacity of the wage-earner, thereby increasing the demand for goods. 18 If the demand is only slightly above or below the supply it will have a great effect upon the price. It is a well-known principle that ''the surplus governs the price." The American manufacturer, know- ing this, dumps his surplus on the foreign market, at cost or below, so as to maintain high prices in America. Were the surplus dumped on the American market the price would instantly fall. A slight de- ficiency in the supply has the immediate effect of putting up prices, and the stronger the demand the higher the price will go. The price of most commodities has advanced since 1900, not in leaps and bounds, but gradually, a few pence at a time, the producers carefully feeling the demand. High prices today are maintained by the enormous demand created by the great buying capacity of the American people. Cut down to the average of the year 1894 the rate of wages and the proportionate number of men employed, and the price of wheat will drop to the price of those days. An increase in the volume' of currency, therefore, whether it be gold or paper, if that currency is put to work, will decrease the purchasing power of a dollar because it will increase wages and the price of all articles produced by labor, and the increase in the income of the people will vastly increase their capacity to buy and thus create a larger demand and broader market for all lines of goods. The demand for currency and working capital in this nation of wonderful and undevel- oped resources is usually equal to the supply, and is likely to continue to be while we have land to be irrigated, swamps to be dramed, canals to be dug, waterways to be dredged, railroads to be built, etc. Hence, the practical effect of increased production of gold is to decrease the purchasing power of a dollar, because such gold tends to increase the supply of money, but it is a very vital point to note the decreased pur- chasing power of the unit is not due to any change in the value of gold constituting that unit, but simply to the increased supply of working capital that has been put to work. It would be very disquieting if the value of our gold was decreasing, for we can not control the production of gold, but we can control the volume of working capital ; in fact, it will regulate itself, for when all the work is done the loans will naturally be paid off, the deposits thereby being decreased and the currency will simply lie idle in bank. It isn't the mere volume of currency that has any effect on prices — it is the putting of that currency to work, so that men are employed at wages that enables them to buy. INSUFFICIENT QUANTITY OF GOLD If gold is the only real money why should anything else be used for money ? The only possible answer is that there isn't enough gold. The total amount of gold produced in the United States from 1792 to 1906 was but $2,800,000,000, so that if every dollar of this had been coined and was still extant we still would not have enough, as our present supply of currency is over $3,000,000,000. If we should attempt to substitute gold for our $665,000,000 of national bank notes where would we get this gold? There is no available supply of gold 19 anywhere in the world. Every ounce of gold ever produced has either been used as money or gone into the arts — there isn't enough gold money now and there is no way of getting any of the gold back that went into the arts. It certainly is not practicable to get gold rings, watches, plate, etc., from the people and melt them down. The gold that is being produced now is not sufficient to supply the demands for new currency. In 1906 there was produced in the entire world gold valued at $4IO,ooo,cxxd and the amount actually coined was $411,000,000 in that same year, while there was also issued a large quantity of paper currency, showing that the demand for currency was greater than the supply of gold. We added to our supply of currency from 1900 to 1908 over $1,000,000,000, an average of about $120,000,000 per year. There was produced of gold in the United States in 1907 but $130,- 000,000 of gold. Thirty million dollars of this went into the arts, leav- ing but $100,000,000 for coinage, or $20,000,000 less than needed. We must face the situation, therefore, that there is not enough gold to even supply our demands for new currency, and it is utterly impossible to ever substitute gold for our present unsecured paper. We have enough gold to redeem our outstanding paper, if the demarid for redemption does not come too fast, but to do so would cut in half our quantity of currency. There are over $3,000,000,060 of uncovered paper in the leading commercial na^tions, as per report of U. S. Comptroller, 1908, p. 489, and these nations are struggling to increase their gold reserves. PAPER MONEY If there is not sufficient gold to supply the increasing demand for currency, then token or paper currency must be issued as a substitute. A certain amount of paper can be kept afloat if backed by a reserve of gold, on the same principle that enables the banks to maintain twelve dollars of deposits on one dollar of reserve. The amount of paper that can be kept afloat depends on the amount of gold reserve held against it, and the credit of the issuer. A bank, as a rule, can maintain and keep afloat a greater portion of paper to gold reserve than can a government, because the government uses such issue of paper to pay its general expenses and for other non- productive purposes, and if its gold reserve becomes impaired it has no way of replenishing it except through taxation or borrowing ; while a bank uses such paper only for loans and investments and in case of need can collect in the loans or sell the investments. Most financiers will admit that two dollars of paper can be kept afloat indefinitely with one dollar of gold reserve ; possibly three might be kept afloat. Four is a practical impossibility without suspending specie payment altogether. It is immaterial how strong may be the credit of the issuer of the paper — when the paper is presented for pay- ment the gold must be there to meet it — if it isn't there, there is a sus- pension of specie payment and immediate derangement of the money market. 20 CURRENCY OF THE UNITED STATES In this nation about half our currency is gold and the other half is paper and silver. The government issued $346,ooo,ocxd of paper termed United States notes or greenbacks against which it keeps at all times a gold reserve of $150,000,000. Considering the limited quantity of the issue, the heavy gold reserve, and the great strength of the government there can be no question that these greenbacks will be maintained at face value. The government also keeps afloat about $700,000,000 of silver — by an implied promise that gold will be exchanged for it on demand. No specific gold reserve is maintained to make this promise good, but there is usually about $200,000,000 or more of gold in the vaults of the Treasury in the general fund that could be used for this purpose. The national banks of the nation have issued $665,000,000 of paper, termed national bank notes, which are ba'cked by the credit of the individual banks and by a deposit of bonds of the U. S. Government. While no specific gold reserve is required to be held against these notes the national banks are required to hold a very large reserve of lawful money against their deposits, and they usually have on hand about $450,000,000 or more in gold. It is true that this reserve serves the double purpose of supporting hbth deposits and bank notes and that in case of emergency it can not be used for either purpose; but the fact remains that the gold is there and while it is there the bank notes will probably pass current at par. Remove that gold and all the credit of the banks and the government combined won't keep the bank notes afloat without suspending specie payment altogether. ' , In England in normal times practically every dollar of paper issued is backed by a dollar in gold deposited in the Bank of England. In case of sudden emergency when more currency is instantly necessary the bank is empowered to issue half a billion dollars of paper tem- porarily. A very much larger issue could be made with safety because of the great reserve of gold in the bank to support it. In this nation we keep afloat in normal times about as much paper as the gold on hand will support safely, hence in times of emergency it is difficult and dangerous to issue much more paper. There can be no question about the quality of currency. It must be gold or a promise to pay in gold ; and the promises can not be made good without an adequate gold reserve to redeem such promises as fast as they are presented. 21 The Trouble and the Remedy There is nothing vitally wrong with our currency. It would be better if it was all gold, but in view of the limited supply of gold that is impossible. But even as it is, about 50% of it is gold and that is ample to support it all except under most unusual circumstances. But it certainly will be inviting disaster to inject much more paper into our circulation. The arguments against greenbackism are just as potent today as they were forty years ago. Neither will it be possible to obtain a sufficient quantity of gold to supply all the demands for new currency in view of the determined struggle every nation is making to strengthen its gold reserve. It is utterly impossible for the nation? to ever substitute gold for the $3,000,000,000 of uncovered paper and the best they can do will be to strengthen their gold reserves so as to be able to redeem such paper as is presented for payment. Hence it follows that we should get the utmost possible service out of the currency we have. That is just what we do not do, but that is not the fault of the currency ; it is the fault of the Banking System. THE DISEASE The trouble with our banking system is two fold. First, we have no way of controlling and regulating bank loans. A giv^n amount of currency in bank will only support a given amount of deposits, and hence only a given amount of bank loans can be granted. If every individual bank loans until it can loan no more without any reference to the condition of the money market, then we must continue to have periodic panics, for the time will always come in this nation df expanding and developing business when every bank in the nation reaches the limit of its loaning capacity, and when that point is reached business receives such a sudden check that disaster must follow. A brake must be put on loans, so that they may be brought to a stop grad- ually and not in the form of a head-on collision. In England the reserves of the different banks are largely carried with the Bank of England. When that bank sees the loans expanding too fast so that the deposits are getting beyond the ability of the reserve to support them, it raises the rate of discount, so that a brake is at once put on loans — borrowers are deterred by the high discount rate from renewing loans and existing loans are paid off, and thus the deposits are reduced. Thus by a simple manipulation of the interest rate the loans are regulated and a proper relation is maintained between the deposits and the reserve. Since that plan was adopted there have been no bank panics in England. Second, owing to the large percentage of reserve carried, our com- mercial banks do not create as much working capital from a given amount of currency as do the commercial banks of other nations. The commercial banks of England create about sixteen dollars of deposits to one dollar of currency in bank. Our largest national banks in the three financial centers of New York City, Chicago and St. Louis can create but four dollars, as they are obliged to carrv a dead reserve of 25%. 22 The need of the nation is for more working capital. A good bank check is just as effective as the currency. The business men were not crying for currency in 1907 — they wanted bank credit. It was the banks that cried for currency because they could not grant the credit without obtaining currency for the insatiable reserve .fund. If they could have reduced the percentage of reserve, a vast quantity of cur- rency would instantly have been available for loans. If the 293 national banks in the reserve cities had been operating on a 6% cash reserve, as the 5,845 country national banks were doing, they would have created and supported with the same amount of currency, nearly one and one- half billion dollars more deposits. The country national banks with but $185,000,000 in currency supported $2,468,000,000 of deposits. The central reserve banks with $281,000,000 in currency could support but $1,128,000,000 of deposits. When the crash came the country banks were in as strong a position as the reserve city banks. A dead reserve does not strengthen a bank any, while it does cut down the working capital the people need. The busi- ness of the nation can not continue to expand and develop unless we have more ''working capital." "Working capital" means bank loans. Bank loans can not be granted without currency for the reserve fund, and as currency can not be created indefinitely we must cut down the percent- age of reserve so as to get larger results with the currency we have. THE REMEDY To remedy the existing ills of the Currency and Banking System, therefore, it is necessary to devise a plan whereby (i) bank loans will be controlled, and regulated and (2) the commercial banks of the nation will be able to operate on smaller reserves. It is useless to attempt to provide sufficient currency if the bank loans are allowed to expand indefinitely — currency could not be created fast enough to m.eet the demand for reserves. It is also useless to^ask a banker to reduce his cash reserve unless he can be shown where he can get sufficient currency instantly to meet unusual demands. The only conceivable way to adequately control bank loans and to provide currency where and when needed by the banks so that they may safely operate on smaller cash reserves is by the creation of a great central bank, strong enough to dominate and control the money market, and so organized and constituted that it will not be a mere private insti- tution for private gain, but a great national institution operating under the supervision of the national government and designed to do two things and two things only, to-wit : ( i ) regulate bank loans and keep them from expanding too far, thus regulating the amount of deposits and maintaining a proper relation between deposits and reserve ; and (2) hold all of the surplus currency of the nation for the use of the individual banks, so that the utmost service can be obtained from tne existing currency. Notwithstanding a popular notion to the contrary, the object of such a bank should not be to inject more paper into our circulation ; we have about as much paper as we can stand now. This nation is not to 23 be converted from a gold standard to a paper standard. No commer- cial nation in the world keeps afloat as much uncovered paper and token money as we do, and we shall invite commercial disaster and national dishonor by materially increasing our uncovered paper currency. The object of the bank should be to make greater use of the currency we now have. INADEQUACY OF THE U. S. INDEPENDENT TREASURY SYSTEM The national government now has a great bank of its own termed the "Independent Treasury System," through which it handles its own fiscal affairs. The Treasury usually has $300,000,000 or more in currency on hand. The government frequently deposits currency with commercial banks, securing itself by taking collateral, but the banks claim that the government makes these deposits at times when the banks do not need the currency and withdraws the deposits at the very time that the cur- rency is needed most. If the government would reverse this process and use this vast fund intelligently, it would act as a great safety valve to the money market. If the government should deposit $200,000,000 in currency with the banks with an agreement that it be returned in sixty or ninety days it would be a very satisfactory emergency currency. But if the national revenues fell below the expenditures and the cur- rency in the Treasury ran low, as has happened many times in the past, then if our banks were relying upon the Treasury to supply currency they would be disappointed. Again, if the Treasury loaned out its funds to the banks and then found that the banks would not pay back the currency on demand, the credit of the government would be im- paired. Neither can the Independent Treasury system in any way control bank loans. Hence it is obvious that the Independent Treasury system can not be utilized to correct the defects in our banking system, and that a new central bank must be organized. CENTRAL BANK But this new central bank, in order that it may be strong enough to dominate and control the money market, must have a gold reserve of large proportions. Where is this gold to be obtained? If it is drawn from the banks it will cripple them. To draw it from the banks and instantly redeposit it with them, as has been suggested, will not do at all. The right to withdraw currency from a bank in times of panic is not a very valuable right. The only available supply of currency is that in the U. S. Treasury. There isn't enough currency to support both a central bank and the Independent Treasury system. One or the other must be given up. At the time of the money stringency the government had lying idle in its treasury one-third as much currency as was in all the banks in the nation. The banks were supporting a vast superstructure of credit for the benefit of the people with the currency they had ; the govern- ment was doing nothing. It is true that the government came to the rescue of the banks after the crisis and by putting this currency in cir- culation helped to save the situation, but there perhaps would have been no need of a rescue if this vast amount of currency had been in circulation where it belonged. 24 If the government gives up its sub-treasury system and creates a central bank, turning over to such bank all of the funds in the Treasury and transacting its fiscal affairs through said bank, then the duty will devolve upon such bank of keeping afloat and maintaining at par all the silver and paper currency issued by the government, and for this purpose it must have an adequate gold reserve, which must be main- tained notwithstanding the condition of the national revenues. To enable the individual banks to safely operate on a smaller per- centage of cash reserve, it will be necessary that the central bank maintain a large reserve of gold with which to supply the individual banks on demand — as the banks will not only require ordinary currency in large volume at various times, but will also need the gold itself with which to redeem any national bank notes offered for redemption and the people must be assured that the gold will be forthcoming on demand, otherv/ise such national bank notes will certainly be offered for redemp- tion in large quantities. In order to obtain this large reserve of gold and other currency the said central bank should be the reservoir to which all of the surplus currency of the nation will naturally flow. The present laws relating to the payment in gold of duties and customs should be continued, and of course all such government revenues would go at once to said bank. In addition, all national banks should be compelled, and all state banks be encouraged, to keep their surplus reserves with said central bank. The present system of reserve and central reserve banks would have to be given up, and all national banks would be on the same footing, each operating on such small cash reserve as it saw fit and having on deposit to its credit with the central bank all surplus reserves. POWERS AND LIMITATIONS OF THE CENTRAL BANK If the bank does nothing with this fund of gold and currency but keep it safely until called for it will defeat the objects of its creation, as it will have no influence on bank loans nor will it be able to supply currency when and where needed. If it is permitted to receive other deposits than from the govern- ment and the banks, it must hold a reserve against same, and such reserve will tie up currency that ought to be used solely for the benefit of the general banking system. If our banks are to rely upon this cen- tral bank to such an extent that they will operate on a smaller percent- age of reserve than they now deem safe, in the belief that they can in- stantly withdraw their balances in currency on demand they must- know that the central bank is being operated in their benefit, and is not going to use its available currency to support its individual deposits. If it grants loans to individuals it will open the door to political 'favoritism and invite disaster — besides if it is not permitted to receive individual deposits it could make a loan only by paying over the counter the actual currency to be carried away to be deposited in some other bank. In order to dominate and largely control the money market, regulate bank loans, and aid the individual banks to expand their loans and thus 25 create "working capital," the central bank should use the currency in its possession solely for the purpose of rediscounting bank paper. Any bank could then take the promissory notes of its. customers on which it had loaned money and on presenting same to the central bank for redis- count receive the face of the loan, less the discount, in currency. No bank will rediscount its paper, thus paying away a large portion of its profit, while it has any available currency of its own on hand, but all banks will avail themselves of the rediscount privilege when currency runs low. X^e central bank will be in position to feel the financial pulse of the nation. When it sees that loans are expanding too rapidly it can raise its rate of discount and this will deter the banks from redis- counting their notes — if they do rediscount they will charge their cus- tomers the higher rate and the customers will naturally reduce the loans as quickly as possible rather than pay too dearly for same. As' the central bank should only rediscount short-time paper, that, if renewed, would have to pay the prevailing rate of discount, it follows that an increase in the discount rate will have the immediate effect of causing loans to be paid ofl:', and the reserve of currency will thus be at once increased. In this way the said central bank will have almost absolute control over the bank loans of the entire nation. Each indi- vidual bank will also be able to draw from said central bank in cur- rency at any time the entire balance such bank has to its credit with such central bank so that it need not keep so much cash in its own vaults. This is just what it can not do now. During the panic of 1907 the reserve banks of the nation were unable to honor the checks of the individual banks drawn against their own credit balances and it was this failure of the reserve banks that forced the general suspension of specie payment. As a result every bank in the nation has learned its lesson and is now keeping a large cash reserve in its own vaults, thus tying up currency and decreasing the supply of ''working capital." This tendency of the banks must be overcome before we can have that general revival of boom times that we are all looking for. A central bank organized and constituted as above described would control and regulate bank loans, thus maintaining a proper relation between bank deposits and reserve, and thereby largely obviating the cause of periodic panics. It would enable the banks to safely operate on smaller cash reserves, and thus make it possible to create more '^working capital" for the use of the nation. In addition, it would put to use the vast accumulation of currency usually lying idle in the vaults of the United States Treasury. If, in Novem.ber, 1906, a central bank had been in existence, organ- ized on the foregoing plan, and having in its vaults available for the use of all national banks had they needed it, the $325,000,000 of currency that at that very time was lying idle in the vaults of the U. S. Treasury, then it would have been safe for all national banks to operate on a smaller percentage of cash reserve. And had the 293 reserve and 61 central reserve national banks in fact operated on a cash reserve of about 8% as the 5,843 country national banks and all the state banks were then doing they could have created and supported bank deposits of $5,615,000,000. Whereas, operating, as they did, on a large per- centage of dead and unusable cash reserve, they were able to support but $2,501,000,000 of deposits. With the same amount of currency, therefore, held in identically the same manner, they could have created and supported over twice as much ''working capital" — a great deal more than there was any demand for^ and there would have been no ''money stringency." LIMIT UPON THE RIGHT OF ISSUE If, in addition, such central bank could issue uncovered paper money, it would be of great advantage to trade, but this it can not safely do without an adequate gold reserve held against such paper. It is not necessary to recite the arguments against greenbackism. We simply must not inject too much uncovered paper into our circulation. The bank will have the duty of maintaining the $346,000,000 of greenbacks now issued and will receive from the government but $150,000,000 in gold with which to do it. It will be obliged to maintain at par with gold the $700,000,000 of silver and it will have to supply the national banks with such gold as they may need from time to time to maintain the $665,000,000 of outstanding national bank notes. It is unsaie, there- fore, for it to issue a new amount of uncovered paper except in emer- gencies for temporary purposes. There are times, however, when emergency currency is needed. Once a year, at the crop-moving season, about $200,000,000 is needed in currency for about ninety days. The bank could probably safely issue this amount for so short a period, using its general fund as a reserve. There are other times when, on account of some business disturbance, an unexpected demand is made on the banks, and to meet this perhaps half a billion of currency is absolutely needed. In England, the bank of England maintains in its redemption depart- ment 6ne dollar in gold for every dollar of outstanding paper (except for one issue of 15,000,000 pounds), but in case of severe emergency it is empowered to issue up to half a billion of uncovered paper, using the gold in the redemption department for a reserve; so that for the time being the currency of England ceases to be backed by 100% in gold, the entire gold on hand being utilized for the maintenance of the entire outstanding paper. We might in case of emergency do the same thing. The government now has in its vaults about $1,000,000,000 in gold against which it has issued gold certificates to the same amount, such certificates being in efifect warehouse receipts for gold. These certifi- cates have been considered in this article as the gold itself. It is, of course, possible to make greater use of this gold fund. The bank might be empowered, in case of great emergency, and with the consent of the United States Treasurer, to issue a half billion dollars of paper backed by this fund. Until this issue was redeemed our gold certificates would cease to be warehouse receipts and would simply be uncovered paper backed by a gold reserve ©f 66%. This sort of finance is not to be indulged in without due consideration, but there are times when emer- gency money must be issued and it can't be maintained without a gold reserve. The only gold that will be available at such a fime will be this re- demption fund, and it is better to use that than permit a financial panic. 27 SUPPLY OF PERMANENT CURRENCY To increase the supply of permanent currency there is no reason why any of the existing laws on the subject should be changed. We should obtain as much as. possible of the newly-mined gold, and the central bank will be in a strong position to obtain and retain this gold. There is no reason why the mints shoul'd not continue to turn out sub- sidiary coin as they are now doing. There is no reason why the national banks should not continue to issue national bank notes as at present. Admitting that it is absolutely necessary to have a certain quantity of uncovered paper currency, then no better or safer paper can be devised than national bank notes as at present issued. They are backed by the credit of the Individual banks issuing them and by the credit of the national government, and as the people have the utmost confidence in them it will require a smaller gold reserve to maintain them than any other notes that could be devised. RECAPITULATION To recapitulate: The business of the nation can not be carried on without ''working capital." "Working capital" consists principally of bank deposits. Bank deposits are created largely by bank loans. Bank loans can not be granted unless there is available currency in the banks over and above the reserve fund. The need of the nation is for working capital. In ordinary times the banks are able to create as much of this as is needed, but when business expands too far the limit of the loaning capacity of the banks is reached, they can grant no more loans and business receives such a sudden check due to the failure of the supply of working capital, that a financial panic follows. The trouble with our present system is that (i) there is no method of regulating bank loans and the business men and bankers know very little about the condition of the money market outside of their own particular communities, and they rely blindly on the ability of banks in other localities to honor their drafts for currency; and (2) our banks operate on so large a percentage of cash reserve that the quantity of "working capital" created is unduly limited. To regulate and control bank loans so that every business man and banker may know the condition of the money market and the available supply of working capital; and to enable the banks to operate on a smaller percentage of cash reserve, so that they may create more work- ing capital with our existing currency, it is necessary to create a central bank, empowered only : 1. To hold the government funds and transact the fiscal afifairs of the government. 2. To receive on deposit the surplus reserves of the banks of the nation. 3. To rediscount short-time bank paper and by manipulating the rate of discount control bank loans and maintain the reserves. 4- To issue ninety-day emergency paper once a year for crop-mov- ing purposes not exceeding $200,000,000, to be backed by its general fund. 5. To issue in time of severe emergency and with the consent of the national government, half a billion dollars of emergency paper, backed by the gold fund now held for the redemption of gold certificates, and by any other gold available. The only changes in the existing laws necessary are to abolish the provisions of the National Bank Act relating to reserves, and repeal all laws relating to the creation of the Independent Treasury system. APPENDIX Extract from the report of the Comptroller of the Currency for 1908, page 212 : "No. 55. — Deposits held by national banks, amount and ratio of lawful money reserve required, also amount, ratio and classification of reserve actually held on November 12, 1906, * "^^ *." Number of Banks Deposits Reserve Required Classfication of Reserve held Location of Banks Ratio Amount Lawful Money in Bank Due from Reserve Agents Redemp- tion FuQd with Treas- urer November 12, 1906 Central Reserve Cities Other Reserve Cities . . Not Reserve Cities — 6L 293 5,845 Millions 1,128.8 1,372.5 2,468.5 P. Ct. 25 25 15 Millions 282.2 343.1 370.3 Millions 281.8 167.4 185.3 Millions 160.3 212.2 Millions 3.9 6.1 16.6 Total 6,199 4,969.9 1 995.6 634.5 372.5 26.5 NOTE. — The National Bank Act requires that banks in central reserve cities (Nev^ York, Chicago and St. Louis) shall hold a reserve against deposits of 25% of such deposits, and that all of this shall con- sist of currency in the vaults of the banks, except that the redemption fund with the United States Treasury may be counted as cash on hand. The "other reserve cities" are required to keep a reserve of 25% against deposits, but only one-half of this, to-wit, $12.50 of every $100, need be kept on hand in the form of currency; the balance may be a paper credit with some other bank. The "not reserve cities" are required to keep a reserve of 15%, but of this sum only two-thirds, to-wit, $6.00 of every $100 of deposits, need be kept on hand in the form of currency; the balance may be in the form of paper credit with some other bank. The currency on hand in national banks to be counted as reserve must consist of "lawful money." This excludes national bank notes and some other classes of currency. 30 APPENDIX— Continued Extract from the report of the Comptroller of the Currency for 1908, page 31 : "For the purpose of comparison, a table exhibiting the principal items of resources and liabilities of banks other than national in the years '-!«** 1906, is submitted herewith :" CONSOLIDATED RETURNS FROM STATE, SAVINGS. PRIVATE BANKS AND LOAN AND TRUST COMPANIES Item. 1906. Loans $ 5,656,832,201 Bonds 2,790,159,501 Cash 334,938,185 Capital . ; '. 739,163,401 Surplus and undivided profits 893,679,524 Deposits 8,159,894,029 Resources 10,363,350,846 NOTE. — It will be seen from the above statement that the actual currency on hand was $334,000,000 against deposits of $8,159,000,000, or about $4.00 of currency for every $foo in deposits. A few of the States have laws relating to reserves in vState banks, but the majority of the States are without such laws and the banks keep on hand such reserves as they see fit, and an analysis of the bank statements shows that a very large portion of the currency kept on hand by such banks is other than "lawful money." It will be seen that the State banks, savings banks and loan and trust companies with about one-half as much currency on hand as the national banks had, were able to create and support about twice as much "working capital." ■ 31 APPENDIX— Continued Extract from the Report of the Comptroller of the Currency for i9o8, pag^e 46. ''Distribution of Money in the United States." Coin and Other Coin and Other Coin and Other Coin and Money in Treasury Mouey in Money not in Treasury Year other Money in as assets, a Reporting J Banks, b. 01 • Banks the United States Amount Per Cent Amount Per Cent Amount Per Cent Per Capita Millions Millions Millions Millions 1892 $1,752.2 $150.9 8.60 $ 586.4 33.48 $1,014.9 57.92 $15.50 1893 1,738.8 142.1 8.17 515.9 29.68 1,080.8 62.15 16.14 1894 1,805.0 144.2 7.99 688.9 38.17 971.9 53.84 14.21 1895 1,819.3 217.4 11.95 631.1 34.69 970.8 53.36 13.89 1896 1,799.9 293.5 16.31 531.8 29.55 974.6 54.14 13.65 1897 1,905.9 265.7 13.95 628.2 32.96 1,012.0 53.09 13.87 1898 2,073.5 235.7 11.37 687.7 33.17 1,150.1 55.46 15.43 1899 2,190.0 286.0 13.06 723.2 33.02 1,180.8 53.92 15.51 1900 2,339.7 284.6 12.16 749.9 32.05 1,305.2 55.79 17.11 1901 2,483.1 307.8 12.39 794.9 32.02 1,380.4 55.59 17.75 1902 2,503.2 313.9 12.24 837.9 32.69 1,411.4 55.07 17.90 1903 2,684.7 317.0 11.80 848.0 31.59 1,519.7 56.61 18.88 1904 2,803.6 284.3 10.14 982.9 35.06 1,536.3 54.80 18.77 1905 2,883.1 295.2 10.24 987.8 34.27 1,600.1 55.49 19.22 1906 3,069.9 333.3 10.86 1,010.7 32.92 1,725.9 56.22 20.39, 1907 3,115.6 342.6 11.00 1,106.5 35.51 1,666.5 53.49 19.36 1908 3,378.8 340.8 10.08 1,362.9 40.34 1,675.1 49.58 19.15 # a. Public money in National Bank depositories to the credit of the Treasury of the United States not included. h. Money in Banks of Island possessions not included. Of THE UNIVERSITY OF ^IFORKiJ UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LIBRARY This book is DUE on the last date stamped below. NOV 5 1947 APR 10 1958 50DF LD 21-100m-12,'46(A2012sl6)4120 JUL 13 1960 . ?^■.i■» ^o^yisv ,f,# -D ^^'? JAN 20 1963 REC'D LD INTERL!BRARY JUj. 2 5 19B4 UNIV. OF CAL-IF LOAN , BERK.