r A NEW SYSTEM OF BY G. SPILLER AUTHOR OF "THE MIND OF MAN", ETC. LONDON WATTS & CO. 17 JOHNSON'S COURT, FLEET STREET, B.C. THE LIBRARY OF THE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES FROM THE LIBRARY OF ERNEST CARROLL MOORE A NEW SYSTEM OF SCIENTIFIC PROCEDURE BEING AN ATTEMPT TO ASCERTAIN, DEVELOP, AND SYSTEMATISE THE GENERAL METHODS EMPLOYED IN MODERN ENQUIRIES AT THEIR BEST BY G. SPILLER AUTHOR OF "THE MIND OF MAN", ETC. LONDON WATTS & CO. 17 JOHNSON'S COURT, FLEET STREET, E.G. 1921 "Mais comment apprendre a bien conduire ses sens? En faisant ce que nous avons fait lorsque nous les avons bien conduits." Condiiiac. "Neither the naked hand nor the understanding left to itself can effect much. It is by instruments and helps that the work is done, which are as much wanted for the understanding as for the hand." Bacon. "Ich sag' es dir: Bin Kerl, der spekuliert, 1st wie ein Tier auf dtirrer Heide, Von einem bo'sen Geist im Kreis herumgefuhrt, Und rings umher liegt schone grime Weide." Goethe. "La science s'avance parce qu'elle n'est sure de rien." Duclaux. "Natural philosophy is essentially united in all its departments, through all of which one spirit reigns and one method of inquiry applies." sir John Hetschei. "The logic of Science is the universal Logic, applicable to all inquiries in which man can engage." j. s. Mill. DEDICATED TO THE IMPERISHABLE MEMORY OF FRANCIS BACON THE FOUNDER OF SCIENTIFIC METHODOLOGY 160718: PREFACE. The present treatise may be regarded as an attempt at a modern re-statement of Bacon's position in his Novum Organum, and this principally ~ because the author follows the great Eli- zabethan in his suspicion of all precipitate theorising and in his conviction that the human mind may be made incalculably more effective for the discovery of truth than it has hitherto been. Like Bacon, he deems it eccentric to expect of men a high degree of methodological competency, so long as there exists no science of correct thinking grounded on a circumspect and exhaustive analysis of the process of thought at its best. Until such a science is established, the author opines, the pro- gress of the sciences generally, especially those relating to the individual and to society, will be both snail-like and ant-like. This demand for a science of correct thinking not hasty or laborious speculations on the subject is so eminently rational that it is difficult to imagine how any soberly reflecting per- son can forbear echoing it, whilst in respect of the obstacles which might be encountered in such a truly formidable enter- prise, there should be agreement that these obstacles must be, manifestly, objectively discpvered, not hypothetically created. The author fain hopes that, as a result of over a quarter of a century of indefatigable attention to the methodological prob- lem, he has substantially advanced by this contribution the state of the science to which all the other sciences turn for light, as the planets do to the sun. On the principles he has adopted, there should be at last a possibility of changing the whirling chaos in the psychological, moral, economic, and kind- red sciences into a steady and relatively swift forward move- mentto the intense relief and immense benefit of the entire human race.- Moreover, whatever the problem or issue that might arise, fair assistance towards its examination and reso- lution will be probably found in this work by those who have assimilated its proposals. These pages have a predominantly practical object to aid the inquirer in any investigation, extensive or restricted, which VI he may desire to undertake. On this account the problems of the nature of reality, of knowledge, and of the categories of thought, have been left severely alone, and even the question of whether science presents us with a vision of eternal truth or offers only convenient conceptual models of a precarious kind has been brushed aside. Such a course does not involve a contemptuous dismissal of ancient and modern controversies on a variety of philosophical topics, or even a doubt as to their penetrating significance, but rather a desire to avoid all needless complications and to fix the attention on the practical aspect of the methodological problem. In fact, the composing of these controversies can evidently not be hoped for anterior to the establishment of an effective methodology. Accordingly, the centre of gravity of this treatise must be sought in Book II, where a series of working Conclusions have been formulated, and only secondarily in Book I, the primary intention of which is to clear the way for a due appreciation of the Book it pre- cedes. In conclusion, the author desires cordially to thank those who at diverse times read through the work in typescript and as- sisted him by valuable suggestions, most especially Prof. Patrick Geddes, Prof. J. H. Muirhead, and Dr. Cecil Desch. The work has been completed abroad under considerable difficulties, entailing certain unavoidable shortcomings in regard to bibliography, indexes, and verification of sources. My warmest thanks are due to the staff of the printing office, more especially to its manager, my friend J. Safranek, who practically saw the work through the press, reducing the author's co-operation to a negligible minimum. Geneva, 1921. G. SPILLER. CONTENTS. Page PREFACE v TABLE OF CONTENTS vii PRELIMINARY CONSIDERATIONS 1 I. FUNDAMENTAL ASSUMPTION OF THIS TREATISE.-II. THE UNITY OF NATURE AND OF LIFE. III. THE METHODOLOGIST'S PROCEDURE. IV. THE METHODOLOG1ST AS SCIENTIFIC? DISCOVERER. BOOK I. THEORY. PART I. THE PROBLEM. Section I. ABSOLUTISM AND RELATIVISM IN METHODOLOGY .... 17 Section II. THE INFANT AND CHILD MIND 22 Section III. THE SCIENTIFICALLY UNTRAINED ADULT 24 Section IV. THE SCIENTIFICALLY TRAINED INDIVIDUAL .... 28 Section V. THE MAN OF GENIUS, AND THOUGHT AS HABIT-CON- TROLLED AND AS A PAN-HUMAN PRODUCT 34 Section VI. THE PROGRESS OF METHODOLOGICAL THEORY ... 38 Section VII.- CONCLUSION 53 PART IL DEFINITION OF SOME IMPORTANT METHODOLOGICAL TERMS. Section VIII. OBJECT, FACT, ENVIRONMENT 54 Section IX. OBSERVATION 57 Section X. EXPERIMENT AND USE OF INSTRUMENTS .... 80 Section XI. CAUSAL ENQUIRIES 85 Section XII. HYPOTHESES 89 Section XIII. GENERALISATION OR EXTENSION 98 Section XIV. VERIFICATION AND PROOF 113 Section XV. DEDUCTION 118 Section XVI. DEFINITE, EXACT, AND MATHEMATICAL PROCE- DURE: a) The Case for Mathematical Procedure 123 b) Definition of Terms 128 c) Precision in Statements 129 d) Definiteness in Scientific Work generally 130 e) Mathematical and Non-Mathematical Procedure . . 130 Section XVII. INDUCTION 132 Section XVIII. CONCLUSION 142 BOOK H. PRACTICE. PART III. INTRODUCTORY. Section XIX. INTRODUCTORY AND SUMMARY 145 Section XX.- Conclusion PART IV. PREPARATORY STAGE. -STUDIES PREPARATORY TO ALL INVESTIGATIONS .... 1. Need of Procedure being determined Methodologically 154 154 Conclusion 2. Need of a Synthetic Methodology, and of a Historical Appreciation of Differences in Methods and in the Scope of Enquiries 163 Vlll Page Conclusion 3. Need of Fixing Methodologically the General Nature and Relations of Phenomena 174 Conclusion 4. Need of a Life-Time Object of Enquiry 180 Conclusion 5. Need of a Simple Starting-Point 181 Conclusion 6. Need of Shunning Vagueness and Over-Subtlety in an Enquiry 185 Conclusion 7. Need of Recognising that Formal Rules are Barren and that Psychical Prejudice is Baneful 190 Conclusion 8. Need of taking advantage of Special Scientific Methods, of utilising Existing Knowledge, of having regard to the Future, and of allowing for Personal Equation and for Training 194 Conclusion 9. Need of Experimental Preparation in Methodology . 199 Conclusion 10. Need of securing the Mental, Physiological, and Environmental Conditions conducive to Efficiency and to Waste Elimination 201 Conclusion 11. Need of Systematically Framing Hypotheses . . . 210 Conclusion 12. Need of Co-operation in Scientific Work 211 Conclusion 13. Need of a Provisional Conception as to the Form which an Enquiry should assume 216 PART V. WORKING STAGE. Section XXL PRECISE NATURE OF PROBLEM TO BE INVESTIGATED 236 Conclusion 14. Need of Precisely Determining the Nature of the Problem under Investigation 236 Conclusion 15. Need of Exact Terminology, of Conclusions in the Form of Precise Definitions, and of Extreme Definite- ness in Thought and Statements 242 Section XXII. OBSERVATION . . 256 Conclusion 16. Need of Applying the Categories; of Strenuous Mental Application in the Process of Observation; and of the Observations being Graded, Comprehensive, Important, Numerous, Full, Rational and Relevant, Original, Auto- matically Initiated, and Methodically Developed 257 Conclusion 17. Need of Critically Examining the Reality of Alleged Divisions . 273 a) Complex Facts regarded as Simple. b) Simple Facts regarded as Complex. c) Environment Ignored. d) Influence of Time and of Position in Space and Mind. Conclusion 18. Need of Keeping and Consulting Records, of Improving the Memory Experimentally, of Employing the Imagi- nation, and of utilising the Intelligence in its entirety 282 Conclusion 19. Need of Ensuring Easy, Exhaustive, and Impartial Observation 293 Conclusion 20. Need of Searching for the Simplest Practicable Case 296 Conclusion 20a.-Need of Degree Determination within and between Divisions, and, in this connection, need of searching for Pure, Normal, Minimal, Maximal, Parallel, Distantly Related, Seemingly Unrelated, Deviating, Morbid, Eccentric, Border, and Transitional Instances 308 Conclusion 206.-Need of Proceeding Dialectically, /.e., need of searching in connection with any facts for what is Con- tradictory, Contrary, Opposite, Common, Disparate, Dependent, Interdependent, Supplementary, Alter- native, Complementary, and Relative 308 Conclusion 21. Need of Habitual Alertness in order to discover Exceptional, Unobtrusive, and Unsuspected Facts, and need of Unremitting Concentration in Scientific Work generally 308 IX Page Conclusion 22. Need of Collecting the Largest Number of Leading Facts, and Ascertaining the Unlike as well as the Like 313 Conclusion 23. Need of Exhausting Classes of Facts, their Conditions, and the Uniformities accompanying them ! 317 Conclusion 24. Need of a Critical Attitude, of Provisional Treatment, and of Repeated Testing, throughout the Process of Enquiry 319 Section XXIII. GENERALISATION .' 326 Conclusion 25. Need of Strenuous Mental Application in the Process of Generalisation, and need of the Generalisations being Graded, Comprehensive, Important, Numerous, Full, Rational and Relevant, Original, Automatically Initiated, and Methodically Developed 326 Conclusion 26. Need of Postponing Large Generalisations to near the Conclusion of the Enquiry 342 Conclusion 27. Need of Exhausting the Degree of Applicability of a Conclusion within and between Divisions, and also of Extending it to Parallel, Distantly Related, Seem- ingly Unrelated, Pure, Normal, Minimal, Maximal, Deviating, Morbid, Eccentric. Border, and Transitional Instances 343 Conclusion 28. Need of Proceeding Dialectically, i.e., need of Searching in connection with any Conclusion for what is Contradictory, Contrary, Opposite, Common, Dis- parate, Dependent, Interdependent, Supplementary, Alternative, Complementary, and Relative .... 356 Section XXIV. VERIFICATION AND PROOF 363 Conclusion 29. Need of Verifying and Proving all Conjectures . . 363 Section XXV. INTERIM STATEMENT 366 Conclusion 30. Need of Exhausting and Gradually Consolidating Lines of Inductive Enquiry and of Aiming at a Balanced Interim Statement 366 Section XXVI.-DEDUCTION 369 Conclusion 31. Need of Strenuous Mental Application in the Process of Deduction, and need of the Deductions being Graded, Comprehensive, Important, Numerous, Full, Rational and Relevant, Original, Automatically Initia- ted, and Methodically Developed 369 Section XXVII. APPLICATION 381 Conclusion 32. Need of Drawing Practical Deductions 381 Section XXVIII. CLASSIFICATION 392 Conclusion 33. Need of Judicious Classification 392 Section XXIX. FINAL STATEMENT 403 Conclusion 34. Need of Formulating a Final Statement 403 Section XXX. REPORT STAGE 404 Conclusion 35. Need of Being Concise, of Carefully Summarising, and of Writing Acceptably 404 PART VI. CONCLUSION CONCERNING CONCLUSIONS. Section XXXI.- CONCLUSION CONCERNING CONCLUSIONS 405 Conclusion 36. Need of Respecting each of the preceding Conclusions in all the above Conclusions, of Improving them, and also of applying them to Non-Scientific Matters 405 PART VIL- GENERAL CONCLUSION. Section XXXII. GENERAL CONCLUSION .. 412 INDEX OF AUTHORS, INDEX OF SUBJECTS, BIBLIOGRAPHY. PRELIMINARY CONSIDERATIONS. I. FUNDAMENTAL ASSUMPTION OF THIS TREATISE. 1. A System of Scientific Procedure? Whewell 1 held that an art of discovery is impossible, and, as if by contrast, Macaulay- argued that all men instinctively practised this art. Other thinkers have assured us that by familiarising ourselves with any one science, our entire mode of thought becomes of necessity scientific ; and still others that each science is unique, and that consequently there cannot be a single methodology embracing the whole field of knowledge. Finally, there are few who do not shake their heads at the suggestion of framing rules for the right conduct of the understanding. Lest the reader, impregnated with views such as those just alluded to, lay this treatise aside without reading it, or peruse it convinced that its underlying conception is vitiated by a gross fallacy, it will be well to outline in this and the following paragraphs the fundamental assumption pervading the whole work. Whether we note the remarkably slow progress through aeons upon aBons in the development of implements, or the infinite efforts which have yielded modern science in all its incompleteness ; whether we observe how microscopically small have been the individual contributions of the men and women of far renown, as we shall see, compared to the vast stock of human acquisitions existing in this age, or the sick man's pace in the evolution of political and economic institutions, we become equally confirmed in our belief that the individual is first and foremost a cultural being, vitally dependent on general human progress, and virtually a zero if thrown back on himself. To cast this thought in the form of a tentative definition: Man alone is primarily a civilisable or culturable being, that is, Man alone possesses the power to absorb the substantial part of a highly developed civilisation, together with the ability of advancing this civilisation to an infinitesimal degree; or, stated more abstractly and broadly, the stock of humanity's 1 See 17. 2 See 57. 2 PRELIMINARY CONSIDERATIONS. acquisitions, divided by the number of human beings who have lived, allowing for the actual physical and cultural con- ditions, approximately yields the single individual's intellectual, moral, and other capacities for invention and discovery. From this definition, if substantially correct, it follows that the unaided individual, reared in a cultureless environment, looms indiffer- ently above his cousins, the apes. Fairly and squarely facing the facts of general historical development from the most primi- tive times to our day the gigantic evolution of intercommuni- cation through language and transport, of buildings and furniture, of implements and industrial processes, of domesticated animals and cultivated plants, of discovered energies and raw materials, of trade and tribal intercourse to internationalism, of dress and education, of play and pastimes and the inner life and its expression, of nutrition and care of health, of morals and reli- gion, of science and art, of the family and other non-civic groupings, of civic groupings, government, and law small doubt should remain in regard to the general soundness of the above position. 1 (For some details, see Conclusion 13.) We may consider here with advantage the signification of three con- nected expressions. Culture is a term which is frequently, but unwarrantably, confused with intellectual culture. Those who do so should remember that it is common to speak of physical culture ; that there are organisations in many countries calling themselves societies for ethical culture ; 2 and that the phrase artistic or aesthetic culture is not unknown. Culture, then, simply implies culti- vation, whether it be that of the soil, of the intelligence, of moral and aesthetic sentiments, or of practical ability, on the basis of the inventions and discoveries made by the human race. Culture, in other words, is a comprehensive term to be employed in contradistinction to native power or spontaneity. He who is truly cultured, is highly cultivated in respect of every important part of his nature. Secondly. It is often asserted that culture is a social product. The term social provides, however, no insight into the fact that virtually the whole of humanity, from earliest times to to-day, is collectively responsible for the contemporary store of general culture. Alternative terms, such as inter-individual, inter-social, super-social, are alike unsatisfactory because of their indefiniteness. A new term is therefore required. In our genera- tion we have heard much of Pan-Germans, Pan-Slavs, Pan-Islamists, terms expressive of a universal category. Profiting by the current use of pan as an adjective and adverb, we may speak of culture as pan-human. The 1 A signal example of collective advance is furnished by the fact that the Royal Society, the Accademia del Cimento of Florence, the Academic Royale at Paris, and the Berlin Academy were founded within a few years of each other, plainly indicating a trend of the times rather than the embodiment of novel ideas occurring to exceptionally gifted individuals. 2 Mill (System of Logic, bk. 6, ch. 10, 2) speaks of "intellectual und moral culture". PRELIMINARY CONSIDERATIONS. 3 term employed in this form would render it at once plain that our culture is, for all intents, the cumulative product of the efforts of all mankind past and present, and no doubt enthusiasts will be found who will go further and speak of a pan-humanist movement and of themselves as pan- humanists. Lastly. For the reasons stated in the immediately preceding paragraph, the term sociology appears to be misleading. It is generally taken to mean that human beings live in groups; but since many animal species live also in groups, the term does not hint at any distinctively human characteristic. What is more, since man depends primarily on culture and Culture is a pan-human product, he is not a social, but a pan-species being a being whose mode of life is intimately related to, although not identical with, that of his kind as a whole. Consequently, the term sociology expresses a fact which holds of many animal species, but not of man. We need, therefore, a term which shall have reference to man's essential dependence on culture, and which shall, if possible, embody the conception that culture is primarily a cumulative species-product. We might accordingly speak of specio-psychics, to indicate that culture is the product of the spiritual endeavours of the whole of humanity. Under- standing, then, Specio-Psychics to be the equivalent of "science of pan- species culture", we may regard it as concerned with one of the leading aspects of nature, and constituting with Physics (the science of the in- animate) and Biology (the science of the animate) the three most distinc- tive departments of existence, to be ultimately subsumed under Cosmology (the science of the whole). Strictly interpreting our definition, there is practically nothing which we can profitably leave to the individual as such. A tendency towards co-operation extending to all ages and all lands is, accordingly, the very life-breath of human society, and so far as this factor is absent there is minimal advance, stagnation, or retrogression, disguised maybe by ignorance, pre- judice, and the weaving of mazes of error. However, since truth is so difficult of attainment, aimless co-operation argues profuse waste of energy, and co-operation should therefore be informed by science which should consequently penetrate every nook and cranny of human life. Even our views on health and on happiness, the moral and the matrimonial relations, the nurture and the education of the young, the methods of work- manship and trading, our social affairs and politics, our arts and our relations to near neighbours and distant peoples as well as to domestic and wild animals, our thought and our inner life all should be clarified and guided by considerations drawn from a highly developed methodology, if they are not to remain in perpetuity emblematical of confusion and of twilight. We ought hence to assume that the scientific mode of think- ing is a slowly developing product of pan-human civilisation, and that with the passing of the ages, and as the result of mountains of experience, man gradually discovers how to l* 4 PRELIMINARY CONSIDERATIONS. employ his understanding most effectively. 1 It appears, there- fore, right and proper to reject the narrowly individualistic conception of human nature and human reason, which traces the origin of leading methodological concepts to the superior minds of a few distinguished thinkers, and to posit the liberat- ing and the perfecting of the human intelligence through pan- humanly developed methods of thought. Our great men, we shall see, are first and foremost historic milestones; they con- veniently, ably, and enthusiastically summarise for us the larger and more definite results of an epoch in a specific direction. II. THE UNITY OF NATURE AND OF LIFE. 2. The nineteenth century established in the minds of men the concept of the uniformity of nature. No longer, therefore, can it be asserted, without calling forth emphatic and almost universal protest, that objects alter their nature indifferently, or that there are countless occult forces whose activities make reliance on experiment fatally precarious. 2 Men affirm now boldly, and in the very act of affirming they lay the foundations of science, that given a certain cause a certain effect will invariably follow under certain defined natural conditions. It will be the privilege of the twentieth century to lodge in the human mind the notion of the unity of nature. The concept is yet far from having been generally assimilated. There are not a few men who consider that action at a distance should be assumed as a simple fact, and that it savours of metaphysics to seek for the proto-element or stuff out of which the chemical elements have possibly been formed. Others not only doubt whether we shall ever know intimately the stellar regions or the world of atoms, but they discern a break between non- 1 See 73 for a historical analysis. ' 2 "Pendant des siecles, les hommes ont cru que meme ies mineraux n'etaient pas regis par des lois definies, mais pouvaient prendre toutes les formes et toutes les proprietes possibles pourvu qu'une volonte suffisamment puissante s'y appliquat. On croyait que certaines formules ou certains gestes avaient la vertu de transformer un corps brut en un etre vivant, un homme en un animal ou une plante, et inversement." (E. Durkheirn, in De la rne- thode dans les sciences, 1910, p. 308.) "In the 17th century Alexander Ross, commenting on Sir Thomas Browne's doubt as to whether mice may be bred by putrefaction, flays his antagonist in the following words: 'So may we doubt whether in cheese and timber worms are generated, or if beetles and wasps in cow-dung, or if butterflies, locusts, shell-fish, snails, eels, and such like, be procreated of putrefied matter, which is to receive the form of that creature to which it is by forma- tive power disposed. To question this is to question reason, sense, and ex- perience. If he doubts this, let him go to Egypt, and there he will find the PRELIMINARY CONSIDERATIONS. 5 living and living substance, between animals and man, and most especially between mind and matter. And widely, pre- valent is the view which insists upon the ultimate mystery and inexplicability of the Universe. Such a non possumus attitude acts as a relentless brake on the man of science, since at every stride forward which he desires to make there are voices warning him that it would be presumptuous to strive to pierce to the depths or to attempt to connect what is separated by an impassable gulf. Theo- retically such an attitude may not only appear plausible, but seems even to reflect the cautious scientific thinker in oppo- sition to the reckless amateur; yet, once such a principle is granted, the scope of science might be caused to shrink to a mathematical point. Fortunately, men of science have possessed a splendid and sturdy faith which has been amply justified by results, and consequently the hypercautious counsellors and critics are doomed to be disappointed. 1 fields swarming with the mice begot of the mud of Nylus, to the great calamity of the inhabitants.' " (W. A. Locy, Biology and its Makers, 1908, p. 278.) Shakespeare's lines on the bee reflect the fanciful science of his day: "Cant. True: therefore doth heaven divide The state of man in divers functions, Setting endeavour in continual motion; To which is fixed, as an aim or butt, Obedience: for so work the honey-bees; Creatures that by a rule in nature teach The act of order to a peopled kingdom. They have a king, and officers of sorts: Where some, like magistrates, correct at home, Others, like merchants, venture trade abroad; Others, like soldiers, armed in their stings, Make boot upon the summer's velvet buds; Which pillage they with merry march bring home To the tent-royal of their emperor: Who, busied in his majesty, surveys The singing masons building roofs of gold; The civil citizens kneading up the honey; The poor mechanic porters crowding in Their heavy burdens at his narrow gate; The sad-eyed justice, with his surly hum, Deliv'ring o'er to executors pale The lazy yawning drone." (King Henry V., Act 1, Scene 2.) See also Studies in the History and Method of Science, ed. by Charles Singer, 1917; and L. Thorndike, Natural Science in the Middle Ages, 1915. 1 "The character of the true philosopher is to hope all things not im- possible, and to believe all things not unreasonable. He who has seen obscurities which appeared impenetrable in physical and mathematical 6 PRELIMINARY CONSIDERATIONS. One scientific division after another has been swept away by the torrential stream of time. The theory of gravitation furnished the first signal indication of the unity obtaining in nature, and in recent days astro-physics and astro-chemistry have further confirmed this. The doctrine of the conservation of matter has been succeeded by the doctrine of the conservation of energy. As a result of a series of discoveries ranging over a century, we have recognised the feasibility of linking up most of the main forces in nature heat, light, electricity, magnetism, and, possibly, chemical affinity. Thus, again, it has been shown that by lowering sufficiently its temperature, every gas can be ultimately reduced to a liquid and probably to a solid, and that, therefore, we have grounds for believing that the three states of matter gaseous, liquid, and solid are due to definite calo- rific differences. Once more, the boasted barriers between the elements are gradually being removed. If carbon can exist in four different states ; if oxygen can possess an allotropic form ; if the arrangement of the elements in order of their atomic weights evidences such striking relations between them that the discovery of new elements having certain properties can be predicted ; and if elements are actually produced by the trans- mutation of other elements, it almost betokens intellectual ob- stinacy to doubt that the day is approaching when the simple chemical substances known to us will be proved to be com- pounds of one element or compound perhaps of hydrogen, perhaps of some lighter element yet unknown, who can tell? Nor need we fear that the present-day telescope and microscope have the last word to say in the exploration of the far-off spaces and the more intimate structures of bodies. In biology the advance has not been less real, for the evo- lution* of plant and animal life is now acknowledged universally, and it is even exceptional to-day for any scholar to suggest that man has not developed from a lower form. The old notion of a vital chemistry has lost most of its scientific supporters, and the struggle rages at the moment only round the mode of the genesis of life itself. Who can doubt where the victory will lie, if history and cumulative evidence are trustworthy guides? The compartment theory unfortunately still holds the science suddenly dispelled, and the most barren and unpromising fields of enquiry converted, as if by inspiration, into rich and inexhaustible springs of knowledge and power on a simple change of our point of view, or by merely bringing to bear on them some principle which it never occurred before to try, will surely be the very last to acquiesce in any dispiriting prospects of either the present or future destinies of mankind." (Sir John Herschel, Discourse on the Study of Natural Philosophy, 1830, [5.].) PRELIMINARY CONSIDERATIONS. 7 field in psychology. Signs are, however, not wanting that feeling, intellect, and volition will at no very distant date be demonstrated to be complexes rather than primordial facts; that all the sensations will be proved to be resolvable into the same fundamental fact as the just-mentioned triad; and that psychology will be regarded as the science which treats of the neural or mental processes employed in the endeavour to satisfy the needs which arise out of the various connected systems of -the organism and out of the relations of that organism to its environment. Similarly, the pan-human origin of culture in- volves that the polygenetic theory of human purposes and actions is ill-founded, whilst the rise of the "scientific manage- ment "-movement suggests that theoretical and practical activi- ties will be eventually governed by a single and undivided scientific methodology. Furthermore, Mach and others, the pre- sent author included, have proposed reasons for surmising that the idea of a rigid division between matter and mind may be traceable to inadequate analysis, and that the two are perhaps one, not as the materialist, idealist, or pantheist, suspects, but in the sense that the alleged separateness, duality, or difference is non-existent. Sufficient has been advanced to suggest that the conception of the unity of nature is no longer a gratuitous assumption destitute of probability and proof, even though we are still groping for an explanation of gravitation and its complement cohesion, and even though we cannot yet indulge in dogmatic utterances of any kind. The bearing of the doctrine of the unity of nature on the methodology of science is manifest, for just as there was practi- cally no scope for a methodology when the uniformity of nature was denied, so, in the absence of the doctrine of the unity of nature, the methodologist is bound hand and foot. Once, however, there is limitless freedom for the man of science, the methodologist can ceaselessly reiterate his cardinal postu- late, i.e., the advisability and necessity of advancing in the boldest manner possible wherever a legitimate opportunity pre- sents itself. The objective foundations, then, of the methodo- logy of science are laid in the comprehensive twin doctrine of the uniformity and unity of nature. Now just as the uniformity of nature involves uniformity in every department of existence without exception, so the unity of nature carries with it the unity of all departments what- soever. In other words, the unity of nature implies the unity of outward nature as well as of life. This leads us far beyond 8 PRELIMINARY CONSIDERATIONS. the confines of science as delimited by the founders of the Royal Society. In those far-off days science signified natural philosophy, and natural philosophy was content to explore the realm of what we designate to-day as physics, including her handmaiden, mathematics. Since that period the double term natural philosophy has been transformed into the single term science, and the connotation of the latter term has been rest- lessly expanded. One physical science after another was added to the few which first existed, while slowly, very slowly, the biological sciences vindicated their right to be classed methodo- logically with the physical sciences. The royal domain of systematised knowledge hence assumed vaster proportions. The wheel of progress did not, however, come to a standstill when this stage had been reached. One by one the cultural or specio-psychical sciences proved at least their theoretical right to enter the charmed circle of the estab- lished sciences. Economists led the way; psychologists and sociologists followed ; and, in time, not one department of cul- tural knowledge remained which could be justifiably regarded as falling outside the coveted pale. Even so, however, the domain of science had to be further extended. From the very dawn of systematising, the line be- tween pure and applied science had proved elusive, and accord- ingly it was only to be anticipated that the expansion of science should tend to the development of a series of more or less avowed applied sciences. Indeed, one distinguished man of science after another became responsible for important scientific applications to departments of practice requiring the same methods of enquiry as the so-called pure sciences. The introduction of gas light, and afterwards of electric lighting, heating, and motor power, was an instance in point, and so were the inventions and discoveries due to the need for com- munal sanitation and for the prevention of infectious diseases,, and previous to that the application of astronomical truths and of the compass to navigation, whilst the universal employment of machinery arid scientific instruments furnished the case par excellence. The desire for economy in industries, and also for the utilisation of waste products and the improvement of agri- culture, similarly issued in applied scientific activity of prime value. Naturally, once science was found to be lucrative in the economic world, it was more and more wooed. Manufac- turing companies employed scientific staffs for the specific pur- pose of deriving the fullest benefits from science applied to their sphere of activity; natural substances such as diamonds, PRELIMINARY CONSIDERATIONS. 9 rubies, indigo, and rubber were artificially produced; and universities and technical schools, observing this, began to pay increased, often excessive, attention to applied science and to scientific preparation in every practical department. Moreover, psychological tests of generic or specific efficiency were eagerly, perhaps hastily, utilised by industrial and commercial enterprises. Thus action and reaction between theoretical science, education, and applied science continued until, as at the present day, the three are closely welded together into an integral totality. If, perchance, on the one hand, much remains still to be done to apply science in the economic world, yet, on the other hand, there exists here and there a deplorable tendency to neglect in favour of this the no less fundamental, but more theoretical, aspects. Manifestly, there could be no restriction of applied science to the economic life. Criminologists entered on extensive stu- dies of the criminal, his environment, and the means of re- forming or deterring him. Eugenists warmly interested them- selves in the question of how to discourage the increase of the tainted, and encourage the augmentation of the healthy, "stocks" among men and, of course, among animals and plants. Educators busied themselves with child study and psychology in order to elevate the children in accordance with scientific methods. Politicians, with a taste for science, examined the psychology of the crowd or collective man. Hygienists sought to discover the best diet, physical exercise, and clothing, and generally the best methods of keeping the body supple and strong, and, as mental hygienists, the best means of preserving intellectual and moral sanity and virility. And, alas! mainly for aggressive purposes, the armaments of the nations have been, with the aid of science, prodigiously raised in destructive power. It is, therefore, only a question of time that the whole of practical existence from the lowliest material needs to our loftiest aspirations will be moulded and illuminated by scientific insight. We should, in fact, not forget that the uses, application, production, quality, value, desire, liking, love, enjoyment, and preference of phenomena the utilisation of things are but certain aspects of the one Existence. (See the Table of Primary Categories in Conclusion 3.) Again. A great science has been evolving during the last quarter of a century whose object it is to replace the tentative rule-of-thumb methods obtaining in industry and commerce by rigidly scientific ones. No longer are haphazard traditions and shortsighted common sense to govern the modes of production 10 PRELIMINARY CONSIDERATIONS. and distribution. Every type of process is to be exhaustively studied in order that it might be reconstructed on scientific principles, ensuring ideal economy in movements, speed, effort, thought, and the like, and products of the highest quality. (See Conclusion 10.) So thorough is this new movement that it is likely not only to revolutionise industry and commerce, but science itself, by standardising universal modes of proce- dure of a startlingly exacting character. Lastly. The major and minor arts, whose mission it is to irradiate beauty and joy in the highest as in the humblest spheres, must become part of the infinite empire of the one all-enveloping and all-connecting science, with its single and all-sufficient scientific method. Accordingly, the unity of nature must be acknowledged to embrace inanimate and animate existence, including human life in its various aspects ; and a scientific methodology itself one and indivisible (Conclusion 2) has therefore no bound- aries of any kind. The only reservation to be made is that it will be some time yet before the later and latest sciences will be fully worthy of being classed among the "established" sciences. Rome was not built in a day! 1 Nor should we omit to notice the unity of the historic pro- cess. Contrary to first impressions, we shall find, on closer examination, that the expansion of the province of science is also a natural one, the relative maturity of a lower or less complicated branch of learning creating the possibility of the formation of a slightly higher and more complicated branch of learning. The fierce struggles for recognition by individual dis- ciplines should be therefore regarded as virtual epiphenomena, as being due primarily to the difficulty of settling the justice of claims, no doubt aggravated by neither party adequately appreciating the objective nature of the problem before them. 1 The attempt has been made to distinguish between science as that which teaches us to know and art as that which teaches us to do. Medicine is thus considered as an art in contradistinction to physiology which, is described as a science. Yet to understand the normal and abnormal work- ings of the organism, and how to prevent and destroy physiological dis- equilibrium, assuredly involves identical methodological processes. The scientific physician may, indeed, manifest a purely theoretical interest in his labours; but even if his interest should be practical, this would merely argue a special direction of scientific activity. The distinction, then, be- tween a science and an art is, at least for the present and the future, me- thodologically a dubious one, and refers to motive and object rather than to mode of procedure. Science might be defined as primarily exact and systematised knowledge as such, and true art as primarily exact and systematised knowledge restricted to practical and idealistic ends. PRELIMINARY CONSIDERATIONS. \\ The applicability of scientific procedure to life and mind has, however, been called in question. M. Henri Bergson, in his L'Evolution creatrice, reasons that science is powerless to in- vestigate super-physical processes. His argument is based on the contention that the object of the intellect is to promote action, and that this action concerns itself with inanimate matter. Hence, M. Bergson concludes, the triumphs of science in physics, and its dismal failure in biology and sociology. In criticism of this attitude the following doubts may be advanced. If the object of the intellect were to promote action, action in animals is in great measure, perhaps mainly, concerned with themselves and with fellow animals; and, moreover, if science has thus far accomplished much in physics and little in biology, this is only to be anticipated considering the primitive sim- plicity of the subject-matter in the first, and the staggering complexity of the subject matter in the second, department of knowledge. The alternative, to have recourse to intuition a .very nebulous term in reaching the verities of life, is unsatis- factory, in view of the fact that "intuition" has been so em- ployed for ages, with fatuously trivial and contradictory results. The unclouded intellect appears to us to have proved itself equal to the study of any known subject, however complicated ; only that we cannot hope to grasp the complex as rapidly as the simple, nor to solve the most abstruse problems without the aid of an advanced methodology. As an illustration of the complexity of biological facts, consider the following case: "Take, for example, those small capsules which are found in the kidneys at the very summit, so to speak, of the problem of renal secretion. These small bodies each occupy a space of less than two-thousandths of a cubic millimetre. Within their interior they contain different kinds of blood- vessels that represent the structures of greatest mechanical interest when dealing with the circulatory system, omitting, of course, the heart. This almost complete sample of the circulatory mechanism, itself formed of a congeries of parts and unitary mechanisms, is enclosed by two or three thousand cells of specific glandular function. Every one of these cells again is a complex of mechanisms about which we cannot rightly think until we reduce our conceptions to the level of molecular dimensions. Enclosed, then, in this minute space, within a mass that weighs two thousandths of a milligramme, lie quite a series of the problems in which physiology is interested." (Opening Address by Prof. J. S. Macdonald. President of the Physiology Section of the British Association, 1911.) It is for this reason that, for instance, protein compounds are exceedingly difficult to isolate and study, first, because of their close resemblance to one another; secondly, because of their complexity e.g., the approximate formula for hemo- globin is CiisHuaNivjOtisFeS*; and thirdly, because they 12 PRELIMINARY CONSIDERATIONS. can only be built up by a series of complex transformations. Even the specialisation common in science will be progressively superseded, as more and more general facts of a scientific order accumulate. Men of science need not therefore be intimidated by the suggestion that nature possesses no unity, or that the world of life and mind can only be effectively explored by the in- tuitionist. 1 III. THE METHODOLOGIST'S PROCEDURE. 3. A modern methodology of science should be the out- come of an analysis of modern scientific procedure at its best ; and yet such an analysis is well-nigh impossible, since what is offered to us in publications are final results which veil, rather than disclose, the concrete movements of the mind. As the analyst of Darwin's method states: "The scientist, after establishing a conclusion to his own satisfaction, is not con- cerned with telling other people how he reached it, but with convincing them of its truth." (Frank Cramer, The Method of Darwin, 1896, p. 22.) For this reason it might appear neces- sary that the methodologist should be an adept in most sciences ; but here, again, the task imposed is more than human. The author has, therefore, chosen a third road which Condillac already clearly perceived when he wrote: "Mais comment apprendre a conduire ses sens? En faisant ce que nous avons fait lorsque nous les avons bien conduits." That is, we cir- cumspectly observe ourselves whilst we are occupied in think- ing, take diligently note of the ratiocinative successes we score, warily apply as universally as possible to subsequent thought what we have learnt, and by dint of persistent examination and experiment we discover and realise, to express it theo- retically, the most effective methods of thinking. Yet, at the threshold, an initial obstacle has to be surmounted, for every-day thought is far from interesting, arduous, or coherent. On this account the present author spent several years in preparing a text-book of psychology based on ori- ginal research, 2 and engaged on other large and definite tasks, in order to find opportunities for examining his mind when 1 "The biologist deals with a vast number of properties of objects, and his inductions will not be completed, I fear, for ages to come; but when they are, his science will be as deductive and as exact as the mathematics themselves." (T. H. Huxley, Twelve Lectures and Essays, "The Educational Value of the Natural History Sciences", ed. 1915, p. 14.) - The Mind of Man, pp. 568, London, 1902. PRELIMINARY CONSIDERATIONS. 13 systematically and strenuously at work, and so as to apply and test the results of his studies. Self-examination and self-training are, however, not likely to be sufficiently far-reaching, because it is very probable that, after every allowance has been made, peculiar grooves of thought and blank ignorance have to be taken into account. Accordingly, self-examination was supplemented by a study of the great methodologists, by wading through libraries of books on science, by perusing many of the works and the biographies of the foremost thinkers of the race, by interviews, by visits to laboratories, and, not least, by submitting successive drafts of the typescript to competent scholars. In this way, it is hoped, the personal equation was substantially rectified, and thus a fair understanding reached of general scientific procedure. When it is considered what diverse methods have been applied through the ages in seeking to comprehend the world, and also that modern psychologists are agreed that the process of intellection presents no mystery, it will be conceded that there is nothing monstrous or fantastic in the endeavour to ascertain how man thinks at his best, and how to compress this mode of thought into definite and utilisable statements. IV. THE METHODOLOGIST AS SCIENTIFIC DISCOVERER. 4. Readers might be inclined to test the proposed me- thodology by what its propagator has achieved thereby. They might contend that if a scientific methodology is to help men to assured and rapid advance in science, the methodologist, inasmuch as he has found the pearl of great price, should sub- stantiate this by his discoveries. Accordingly, the readers of this treatise may be tempted to search in its pages for a long chain of novel and epochal scientific truths. The temptation to argue in this manner may appear warrant- able at first sight; but further consideration will, we hope to show, evince its unreasonableness. The duty of the elaborator of a scientific methodology is, plainly, to evolve a methodology, not to exploit it. From the very commencement of his attempt to its consummation, he is ever groping his way, and slowly, very slowly, assisting to create a relative cosmos where pre- viously a relative chaos prevailed. Even if he could devote a whole life-time to his enterprise, and was peculiarly fitted for it, he would still require all the hours at his disposal to prevent his methodology from being more imperfect than necessary. He would be, therefore, obliged to publish his work long be- 14 PRELIMINARY CONSIDERATIONS. fore he had truly completed it, and consequently he would lack the time to apply his conclusions systematically in several directions. Moreover, this Methodology does not profess to furnish a method whereby large numbers of important truths can be arrived at by one individual ; it rather suggests that the estab- lishment of comprehensive generalisations and deductions is the task of ages and the effect of systematic co-operation. Its aim is as much to warn against individual over-confidence as to point to correct methods. Its keynote being the unity of knowledge and the necessity of being satisfied with incomplete conclusions for prolonged periods, no one should expect to discover in these pages an imperial mint for the wholesale production of scientific truths. Finally, theory and practice, analysis and synthesis, are not identical. A good dramatic critic need not necessarily be a good dramatist, nor does it follow as a matter of course that a methodologist should be skilful in the application of scientific methods. Indeed, the very absence of adroitness and the very hesitancy in decision, not improbably provide the occasions which reveal the manifold methodological factors involved in scientific activity. The object of the methodologist is to supply the most finished instrument of investigation he is capable of devising; but the extensive employment of this instrument he must leave to others who have not had the disadvantage of consecrating a long life to its laborious construction and even more laborious multiple revision. If, therefore, in the succeeding pages, most of the profound observations are not original, and most of the original observations are not profound, it is hoped that the reader will regard this as inevitable, as in the nature of things, and not as reflecting unfavourably on the endeavour to place be- fore the world a comparatively ambitious work on methodology. 1 1 See, however, the author's The Mind of Man and his The Distinctive Nature of Man (shortly to be published), for an attempted application of the methodological viewpoint urged in these pages. BOOK I. THEORY. PART I. THE PROBLEM. SECTION I. ABSOLUTISM AND RELATIVISM IN METHODO- LOGY. 5. The unity of the world of fact does not strike the ordi- nary observer, because for his purposes a world divided and subdivided into many independent parts and compartments is a more profitable conception. Slight variations, border instances, minute, remote, and invisible objects, as well as slow trans- formations, escape him. Such being the case, it was natural that the pioneer logicians of the West should have unsuspect- ingly assumed that the ordinary spectator's point of view is the correct one, and that they should have consequently taken for granted the existence of the world of common sense, that is, of a world composed of isolated objects and isolated classes of objects with features too plain to be overlooked. This mode of apprehending facts supplied a rigid criterion for the pro- cesses of reasoning, and hence followed the absolutist character of the older logic. A trait of this kind, since it appeared to ensure certainty, was, reasonably enough, cherished beyond anything else in the armoury of logic. Francis Bacon, although he ardently expressed his belief in "progressive stages of certainty", only fitfully applied this pregnant conception of his. The notion of the correlation and unity of the natural forces and -of phenomena generally, or of the ultimate relations and reducibility of the elements, did not suggest itself to him. It is true that he boldly sought for the "simple natures" of things, 1 and that nothing less than the discovery of these would satisfy him ; but it was simple natures heaviness, malleability, fixity, fluidity, colour, etc., which he was bent on discovering, not simple nature, nor did he appar- ently suspect that the molecular world was the world of master facts, and that this world could only be approached with the greatest difficulty, if at all. For this reason he, like Aristotle, believed in the molar and compartment theory of the world and of the mind, and to this is partly attributable his exagge- rated opinion as to what a perfected scientific method might 1 Francis Bacon frequently employs the term Form, and he offers as equivalents of this term nature, law, simple nature, specific difference, true definition, etc. By Form he almost certainly means what in modern ter- minology is called Natural Law. (Novum Organum, bk. 2, 3.) 18 PART I. THE PROBLEM. accomplish if applied by even one adept. Had he divined the interdependent unity of nature, as the latest science is increas- ingly forcing it on our attention, he would have certainly admitted that the most admirable of methods should allow for progressive stages of certainty as regards conclusions, and for an organic and historic development of the structure of know- ledge from the simple to the complex. He would have there- fore emphatically repudiated the idea of remaining reconciled for a time to probable or incomplete results e.g., to X-rays, cathode-rays, and Lenard-rays, 1 whose precise nature is as yet a mystery, or to accessory food factors such as fat-soluble A, water-soluble #, and the anti-scorbutic factor, where the func- tions are only partially known and the chemical nature not at all. It was this same laudable craving for certainty which obscured for Descartes the practical value of the inductive method, and which prevailed on him to exert his genius to the fullest measure in order to elaborate a system of knowledge which should remorselessly exclude all uncertainty. On this account, he made in his Regulae a highly ingenious attempt by accen- tuating intuitional truth, and coupling this with a stern deduc- tive procedure where every movement is rigorously checked to comprehend the Universe without an appeal to general experience. Descartes was even jealous of the reasoning pro- cess, and hence he proposed to fuse, through repeated attempts, the links of a reasoning process, till it became one and intuitional in character.- From the point of view of the end aimed at, Descartes' attitude was irreproachable; only he was unfortunately mistaken in his assumption that either the reasoning process or the external world was composed of discrete elements void of intricate and subtle interrelations. He rightly distrusted reliance on the senses because of the evident heterogeneity of what is presented to observation ; but he failed to appreciate that words, being but symbols, are even more elusive than facts, and that the most trifling slip in a com- plicated train of reasoning may throw us altogether off the track, whilst no amount of foresight can prevent such slips from occurring where facts are not appealed to unceasingly. 1 ^ 1 The X-rays are now practically identified with the gamma-rays of the radio-active substances, and much is known concerning them, and the cathode-rays are now said to consist of streams of negatively charged particles or electrons. 2 On the above, see the Regulae; also Boyce Gibson on these in Mind. 3 Leibniz drew up rules referring to probable knowledge. His second rule in his L'art de bien raisonner reads: "When it does not seem possible to attain to certainty, one must content oneself with probability." (Couturat, La logique de Leibnitz.) The following formal rules of his specially refer to this type of knowledge: "(1) Distinguish degrees of probability. (2) A conclusion is never more probable than the principle from which it is deduced. (3) When a conclusion is deduced from several principles which are only probable, the conclusion is less probable than any of those prin- ciples." (Ibid., p. 180.) SECTION 1. ABSOLUTISM AND RELATIVISM IN METHODOLOGY. 19 John Stuart Mill, though an empiricist in philosophy, was nevertheless, like his distinguished predecessors, an absolutist in logic. He set little store by approximate generalisations, and looked on them as definite though incomplete; his identi- fication of inductive with causal investigations was apparently due to his desire of disposing of something once for all; his canons demanded proofs as unerring as those of the syllogism; and his repeated use of letters of the alphabet to symbolise the various unknown factors in a problem, illustrated how over- simple was his conception of the Universe. The methodological guidance he proposes is consequently only applicable in the main to the concluding stages of an enquiry when bewilder- ment has ceased and the principal facts are established and classified. Sheer indefinable probability, a groping one's way in the dark, a chaos growing gradually less confused, a thinker feebly illuminating a humble corner here and there or slightly intensify- ing the light; in other words, the plastic form of the actual process of concrete enquiry had not impressed itself upon the older logicians. They were concerned with final products, not with complicated and elusive facts; nor did they treat of hypo- theses, generalisations, and certainties of an unfolding and progressive character. Even where, as in Laplace's theory, pro- bability was postulated, it was of a calculable character, and not of the undefined quality which almost invariably attaches to investigations as they develop under the hands of genera- tions of men of science, as say in the progressive discovery of the nature of flame, in the slow determination of the principal causes of meteorological changes, in the gradual localisation of the sensory and motor areas in the brain, in the involved unravelling of the problem of heredity, or in the step-by-step ascertainment of the nature of a perfect diet. Likewise in our new century there are few savants who adequately recognise that the most learned treatise written on any subject to-day is bound to be comparatively crude because of its dependence on other treatises which are being or will be written, e.g., a trea- tise on what education should be depends, among other develop- ments, on a perfected science of hygiene, psychology, ethics, aesthetics, and technology, and on something like unexcep- tionable physical, economic, intellectual, political, and moral conditions in society as a whole. This interdependence is notice- able throughout the groups of sciences, beginning with the least dependent and terminating with the most dependent- elementary mathematics, mechanics, ethereology, chemistry, crystallography, biology, psychology, and the cultural or specio- psychical sciences, 1 there being "scarcely any natural pheno- menon which can be fully and completely explained in all its 1 For a classification of the sciences, see Conclusion 33. 20 PART I. THE PROBLEM. circumstances, without a union of several perhaps of all, the sciences" (Sir John Herschel, Discourse, [183.]), a sentiment which the eminent physicist Lord Kelvin endorses by saying : "All the properties of matter are so closely connected that we can scarcely imagine one thoroughly explained, without our seeing its relation to all the others, without, in fact, having the explanation of all." (The Constitution of Matter, 1901, p. 240.) The common experience of one science dividing into a number of others is a further verification of the above contention: "By a law whose necessity is evident, each branch of the scientific- system gradually separates from the trunk when it has de- veloped far enough to admit of separate cultivation." (Auguste Comte, The Fundamental Principles of the Positive Philosophy, ed. 1905, p. 31.) Some logicians have also thought that only instinct, sagacity, imagination, and other alleged unanalysable mental qualities can be advantageously utilised in the process of scientific enquiry. As opposed to this view, i. e., that scientific ability is an indeterminate X, and science itself necessarily absolute, we shall endeavour to show in the sequel that an art of reasoning relating to greater or smaller probabilities of an imperfectly calculable character has developed through the ages, and may be abstracted from the present practice of men of science. Some writers on logic (Bosanquet, in his Logic, and Creighton, in his Introductory Logic) argue that the reasoning process presents a developing unity ; and it is to be hoped that logicians generally will recognise that progressive stages of proof and of certainty deserve to be circumstantially treated in works on logic. Psychologists have spoken of the psychologist's fallacy. One might with equal justice speak of the logician's fallacy. The final product of a process of reasoning stated in formal terms has been mistaken for the expression of the concrete process itself, and reasoning in formal terms and modes has been assumed as the only mode of reasoning. Logic is, however, a progressive science, as we shall see. (Section VI.) In pro- portion as convention favours the utilisation or the neglect of hypotheses, so men accustom themselves to the one or the other; as generalising is or is not encouraged, or as abstract or concrete, dignified or petty interests prevail, so men adjust their thoughts in conformity with the social trend; and when reliance on books or on imaginative treatment rules, when it is the fashion to think with or without aids, formally or in- formally, the scientific mass mind faithfully reflects each of these trends. This being the case, it may be conjectured, with some degree of certainty, that the average individual of the somewhat distant future as the eventual result of the discovery and the assimilation by the masses of mankind of the modes of thought which time has ripened, and which the modern scientist at his best applies when engaged in expert investi- SECTION 1. ABSOLUTISM AND RELATIVISM IN METHODOLOGY. 21 gations will possess a general power of analysis and synthesis, a general capacity of bringing to light what is concealed and correctly extracting the variety of implications of a fact or a statement, which has heretofore only existed among distin- guished men of science when they dealt with particular prob- lems familiar to them. Unfortunately, the subject of the education of man is too gigantic to be approached within the narrow limits of this treatise, and we have therefore largely restricted ourselves to an analysis of the mental process em- ployed in scientific discovery. We may, however, add that the primitive chaotic conception of the world, as pictured by the fetichist and afterwards by the polytheist, and even by a Lucretius, is being more and more reduced to order by science as witness the gravitational and astronomical conception of the Universe; the geological, meteorological, geographical, cartographical, racial, and political conception of the earth; our knowledge of the atmosphere, its constituents, and its movements; the general facts of inorganic and organic chemistry; the theories of the evolution of worlds and of living forms; the insight gained into the static and dynamic nature of the cell; the ascertained anatomy and physio- logy of the members of the vegetable and animal kingdoms; the knowledge of man's story and nature gained through archeo- logy and scientific history ; the tolerable comprehension of the furniture of man's mind and the stages of his life; the wonderful instruments which are at the disposal of captains of industry and men of science; the enlightenment traceable to the aid rendered by mathematics and geometry and the systematisation of sense knowledge; the internationalisation of ethical, political, economic, and scientific methods; the development of universal rules of conduct; and the spread of taste and of refinement and that, with the ages, it will become increasingly easy to grasp and comprehend the world of facts. Thus in time the main forces and uniformities in nature will be discovered and syste- matised, and man's outer and inner life more or less completely understood and ordered. Hence absolutist doctrines and de- ductive methods of a severely mathematical character will, in the course of time, become more and more applicable, until, on the advent of the mythic stage, when the world formula has been evolved and the ultra-microscopic and ultra-telescopic facts of nature have been revealed in their pristine simplicity and hammered together into a series of facts or into one fact by inter-planetary co-operation, Descartes' fascinating dream of intuitively apprehending the Universe will be actualised. On the present age rests the humbler and more prosaic task of promoting a general comprehension of the mental processes involved in the best contemporary scientific practice, and of urging the reasoned application of the fruits of such an endeavour to all spheres of possible investigation and activity. An abso- 22 PART I. THE PROBLEM. lutist methodology will therefore become practicable only in the remote future, when the present state of knowledge will have been almost infinitely transcended, that is, when most of the leading facts of physics, biology, and specio-physics, will have been ascertained and correlated into a closely-knit science of the cosmos or cosmology. In the succeeding four Sections we shall discuss the scientific acumen to be anticipated from individuals who are not deliber- ately trained in accordance with methodological canons faith- fully abstracted from modern scientific procedure at its best. SECTION II. THE INFANT AND CHILD MIND. 1 6. Men often smile at the extravagant conclusions reached by children (as when a child who has heard that a driver, arriv- ing from a certain village, is called Leonard, inquires whether all drivers hailing from that locality bear this name); yet a circumspect study of infant life throws some light on the prob- lems of methodology. We need not touch here on inherited aptitudes, or on the learning, without imitation, of certain movements (such as carrying the fingers to the mouth), nor the interesting stages when by degrees concerted action ensues between pairs of eyes and limbs, or collaboration develops between the several senses. To enter into these genetic problems would lead us too far afield. The first concept of interest to us which the child acquires is that of "things". The eyes supply the infant with its in- formation about the world beyond the finger tips, but this only when objects move, omitting here strong light and glaring colours which fascinate rather than teach anything. Hence when the child watches a curtain moved by the wind, an ani- mated face, a figure passing by, the waving branches of trees, the inrushing tide, it gradually singles out the moving object from the motionless surroundings. Only motion, on our part, or on the part of a portion of our environment, appears to yield the individuality and separateness whfeh adults associate with things. At first, objects which pass .out of sight or out of the grasp have passed out of existence for the child; but diverse experiences teach him that out of sight is only out of mind. The first truths learnt, then, by the infant are that objects exist and persist; and, in an unreasoned way, no doubt, he becomes convinced that all things exist and persist for ever in the precise form in which he has sensed them. The next stage is an equally important one. Motion has unlocked the secret of things, and now stationary objects, first 1 See under Child in the Index of the author's The Mind of Man. SECTION 2. -THE INFANT AND CHILD MIND. 23 small ones and then large ones, are, to begin with, recognised and then freely distinguished. A pencil, a glove, a hat, a chair, a table; a little later a door, a wardrobe; and later still, a house, a street, are separated with astonishing ease by the eye. 1 Yet the word table, for instance, is not interpreted by the child to mean: "This something, seen at this moment from this angle." Rather will the child identify as a table any table at any time, or even anything resembling a table. Thus san- dals, slippers, shoes, and boots are shoes; all round objects are balls ; every glass vessel is a glass. Given one object seen and named, the child readily regards it as representing a class. The reason for this tendency to generalise is probably as follows. The child's glance is only arrested by the leading features of the object, and he observes it therefore most in- completely. Hence size, colour, variations in shape, position, and the like, are very imperfectly apprehended, and the general and particular are thus readily confounded. When, therefore, an object appears a second time, or a similar object presents itself, vague memory followed on loose observation will identify what is more or less heterogeneous. Secondly, even so far as differences are appreciated, they are nevertheless neglected because not deemed of importance, or, to express this more objectively, because only the known and that which interests fall within the focus. For the child Generalisation signifies psychologically that a certain object or what is for him the same, a certain class of objects having been once singled out will, because of the neural mechanism or the laws of asso- ciation, be automatically isolated when it reappears. The infant is practically incapable of associating one object of one class with another of a different class. His griefs and his joys are unaffected by any recollections or reflections, since these are lacking, and reasoning, which implies cross-classi- I fication of memories or associated recollection, is therefore absent. A time, however, arrives when after the invaluable repetitive stage of earlier childhood has passed where every action tends to be repeated a number of times the association of memories and ideas becomes possible, especially with the aid of language. When this happens, random, though not frequent, generalisations as to relations and classes of facts follow in the wake of the similarly random, but frequent, gene- ralisations as to separate facts. Until much later, when his store of knowledge has assumed considerable proportions, the child's interest is predominantly concerned with facts rather than with classes of these. 1 The sense of touch, as a channel of external information, apparently develops relatively late in the infant life of the individual. Besides, this sense supplies only an infinitesimal portion of our knowledge of the Uni- verse, and its high philosophical status is not easily vindicated before the bar of fact. 24 PART I. THE PROBLEM. If the child's method of attacking problems developed from within, his world of ideas might automatically grow to be or- ganised and compact on approaching adulthood. As a matter of fact, however, the modes of mental reaction beyond the early animal stage are furnished by the cultural environment, and hence, after the Rubicon of infancy is passed, his discrimi- nations and classifications reflect in a rudimentary form this environment which, as we shall see in the next Section, has hitherto normally occupied a low scientific plane. That is to say, since the cultural environment varies indefinitely in space and time, and since methodical thinking is as yet socially un- organised, we may expect children to develop a perplexing number of markedly ineffective ways of approaching the every- day problems of life. This we actually observe to be the case. According to the opportunities afforded, and the conditions of the social environment, we note in the young the profoundest cultural divergences some are grossly ignorant, others are ex- cellently informed ; some are stupid, others are brilliant; some are credulous to a degree, others judiciously discriminate. Especially if our survey be historical and geographical, do we discern prodigious and capricious deviations in intellection, moral insight, taste, and practical ability, manifestly determined by cultural and not by hereditary factors. We are therefore prepared to find that since the great majority of children receive but a poor educational equipment, and live under any- thing but ideal cultural conditions, they should exhibit as a class a very modest methodological status. Following the child from infancy to adolescence, we are thus struck with his essen- tial dependence culturally on human advance as a whole, on the constitution of his social environment, and on the nature of his personal circumstances. We note, therefore, in the child two characteristics: (a) the development of the chief elements in the growth of thought the impulse to know, apprehension of objects, observation, gene- ralisation, imagination, reasoning, judgment, and, above all, pro- fiting by the inventions and discoveries of others, and (6) the absence of anything resembling the circumspection, comprehen- siveness, and systematic procedure of scientific method, except in so far as highly efficient methodological teaching and training- are provided. We will enquire now to what extent, intellectually, the ordi- nary scientifically untrained adult differs from the child whose offspring he is. SECTION III. THE SCIENTIFICALLY UNTRAINED ADULT. 7. Prior to the formation of mental associations connected with events in his life, the child does not deliberate. In the course of growing older, however, he gains an enormous stock SECTION 3. THE SCIENTIFICALLY UNTRAINED ADULT. 25 of memories, and the possible number of associations becomes therefore limitless. Consequently, especially with the priceless aid of language, the process of deliberating, of reflecting, of reasoning, steadily develops with experience and with guidance, and in this particular respect there is, accordingly, a notable distinction between the younger child and the average adult. Still, the deviation, if we omit the earliest stages, is much less clear between adult and child so far as the processes of in- tellection are concerned, for, although the half-trained adult will neither mistake the almonds on a cake for pebbles nor assert that the chair is naughty, his cogitations only very remotely suggest modern scientific procedure at its best. The average man to-day labours under peculiar disadvantages from which the man of science is exempt. The latter does not grudge the expenditure of the time and energy requisite for solving a problem, and, what is more, if no tangible solution is forthcoming, as in Faraday's attempt to detect a relation between gravity and other natural forces, he merely postpones or abandons the search for an explanation. The average man, on the contrary, is compelled to settle every day numerous problems, and he is, therefore, little perturbed when any of his ordinary solutions prove partially or wholly erroneous. To generalise is a matter of mental economy both in practi- cal life and in science, and in practical life economy is of such moment that probability quickly reached is more prized than certainty attained as the reward of protracted labours. The average adult, no doubt, generalises excessively; but, on the other hand, mere cautiousness is of doubtful positive value. In certain strata of society "I think", "It appears to me", "I don't know", are expressions in constant use. Precipitate generalising is avoided here; but mechanical caution neither dispels error nor extends the horizon of knowledge. In the keen struggle for existence much must be staked, and indeci- sion will not feed, clothe, house, or enlighten mankind. Consider an instance of every-day problems. The train by which a person travels to town has been occasionally late. That person, if he desired to be precise in recording the fact, would need to state the number of times the train has or has not been late; the dates, the hours of the day, and any special circumstances which might account for the tardy arrival of the trains. Rather than conduct such an elaborate investigation, he would prefer to proffer no statement at all, and yet a purely negative attitude on all dubious points would tend towards a mental standstill. Aware of these obstacles, we are satisfied in daily life with probabilities, and we seldom strive to attain to even approximate certainty. What, then, is the current measure of the degree of probability? The question is em- barrassing. Not a few individuals universalise in an extra- vagant manner. If, for instance, a train chances to be late, 26 PART I. THE PROBLEM. the remark is made that all trains on the line in question are late in arriving, or, more forcibly, that there is always some- thing amiss with trains. A single act stamps a man as good or bad, and an isolated transaction determines whether a tradesman is a desirable person to have dealings with or not. Similarly, manners, political parties, and religions other than our own are freely condemned on the basis of one or a few in- stances, whereas one or a few picked illustrations are presumed to demonstrate the superiority of our manners, political party, and religion. Likewise there is no argument so shallow or unsub- stantial which is not often regarded by numbers of men as con- clusive when it is, say, a matter of defending class interests or inventing an excuse for declaring war. 1 In the absence of a discriminating public standard of pro- bability it is hazardous to pass judgment on the average man for indulging in precipitate statements. After all, the Universe is not a multiverse. To-day closely resembles yesterday, and to-morrow will not differ much from to-day. The general facts of nature do not sensibly vary during brief periods ; towns, parks, streets, houses, remain virtually the same from week to week ; the number and the appearance of the folk we encounter in our district from day to day remain approximately alike; and our acquaintances apparently possess a permanent character. Moreover, largely because we are trained to ignore everything which is not palpable, obvious, or usable, the marvellous development of plants and animals from shapeless and dimi- nutive zygotes into astonishingly varied forms ; the links which closely connect the most diverse living types ; the world of causes which is almost invariably the region of the microscopic and ultra-microscopic; and objects relatively distant in space and time, fall outside the focus of common apprehension and interest. Nor does fortuitous experience teach a man much, for an undisciplined and confused memory, multitudinous pre- judices, and rambling cogitations re-reduce the complex to the simple, and mask the deeper truths. The method of thought whereby he ordinarily proceeds, the average man opines, is applicable everywhere. Besides, because of the intricacy of most problems, it is difficult to prove to him that he is mistaken, and even if he be convicted of a defect in his reasoning, he will readily discover specious explanations to reassure himself. Thus, if a man of ill repute happens to be drowned when swimming at the seaside, it is regarded by many as a divine punishment; if a man of good repute is drowned under analogous circumstances, the deity is said to have need of him. If unemployment increases in the country, 1 The World War, happily ended with the defeat of the principal aggressor, painfully illustrates the last point. Austria's pretext for attacking Serbia, Germany's for declaring war on Belgium, Russia, and France, and Bulgaria's excuse for breaking with its neighbour, Serbia, are apt examples. SECTION 3. THE SCIENTIFICALLY UNTRAINED ADULT. 27 the Opposition attributes it to the incompetence of the Govern- ment, whilst Ministers of State ascribe it to the disturbing effect on the market of the unwarrantable and partisan criticisms of the Opposition. However, prejudice is immensely heightened by a mental process the presence of which is habituaHy unsuspected, namely, the psychological fact, to be discussed in Conclusion 7, that only that which appeals to us tends to be recalled. For this reason, the Musulman, the Jew, and the Christian; the Con- servative, the Liberal, and the Socialist; the aristocrat, the bourgeois, and the operative; the artist, the captain of industry, and the man of the world, are each very often supremely con- fident in their views. The opponent's contention, because of the working of the psychic mechanism, has no justification for them, and hence they feel immovably certain that their case is strong, and that of their antagonist weak. In one limited sphere alone the average man reasons scientifically, or nearly so, namely in his avocation, where a knowledge of many of the relevant facts and traditional methods resulting from dearly- bought experience, frequently prevent slipshod observation, reasoning, and generalisation. Since, however, he is not con- scious 1 of the peculiarity of the method which he applies in his avocation, this method is of no assistance to him in any other department of life, especially because occasions vary and divergent situations require relatively divergent treatment. Nevertheless, even here, as the efficiency movement is daily demonstrating, a multitude of blighting prejudices seriously debases the value of his thought. The average individual of to-day is not only hampered by ignorance, bias, and narrow sympathies; he generally lacks the determinate and desirable qualities which efficient training provides. When confronted with a perplexing problem, he just stares at it, loses heart, or seeks to overcome it by attempts ascribable to the most fugitive suggestions ; when he discovers two or three trivial points, he deems that he has discovered everything relevant ; when an unfamiliar theory is propounded, he thinks of some, more or less plausible objection, and decides at once that this disposes of the theory ; every novel suggestion relating to practice he stigmatises as unpractical or as contrary to human nature; when a solution does not quickly present itself, he conjectures that no solution is possible ; he confounds mere plausibility with sheer truth; each ephemeral symptom he regards as an independent and fundamental fact, overlooking thus what is really of moment and far-reaching; he believes that if he only waits, the truth will automatically sail into view ; he despairs of there being any truth at all in the matter ; 1 An analysis of the nature of habit will be found in the author's The Mind of Man, Ch. 3. 28 PART L-THE PROBLEM. he is not concerned about finding the truth; he hesitates and vacillates ; he is unmethodical ; he occupies his time in brooding and speculating, in grumbling or fumbling; he does not attack the problem with sufficient energy; he has not learnt to con- struct or to follow a lengthy train of reasoning; he jumps to conclusions ; he is without resource ; he is not sufficiently cautious; memory plays him false, and he forgets much; he takes no accurate notes, nor does he make sure of his facts; and so on, and so on. 1 Every competent observer will corroborate the statement that average persons exhibit some or many of the defects above mentioned, defects which bring into relief the need of a methodology. It is evident, then, that thinking in conformity with scientific standards is most rare among the scientifically untrained, and it is at least a problem worth examining whether proper methodological training, which is now curiously con- spicuous by its absence, would not mend matters materially, if not radically. It is difficult to see why defects such as those enumerated in the preceding paragraph could not be eradicated, and the corresponding desirable qualities firmly implanted. Indeed, it is as unreasonable to anticipate that the untrained thinker will be equal to the task of thinking effectively as that he will not become expert in this direction when adequately trained. The very growth to an illimitable extent of scientific methods affords further presumptive evidence in favour of the assumption that methodological thinking is a socio-historic and pan-human product. Let us now study the man who is "scientifically" trained, in order to enable us to determine what distinguishes him from the scientifically untrained adult. SECTION IV. THE SCIENTIFICALLY TRAINED INDIVIDUAL. 8. The theory and the practice of the sciences are com- monly assimilated by the student in the course of practical scientific work and reading. He surmises that his teachers proceed in certain ways, and imperceptibly he glides into those ways himself. Hence, since the material of the sciences differs notably in respect of composition and complexity, and since the stages in their development also diverge widely, it is not to be expected that the traditionally determined pursuit of some particular science will unlock the secret of the general scientific method. In some sciences, as in physiology, the facts are relatively complicated, whilst in others, as in molar mechanics, they are comparatively simple, and likewise the advanced stage 1 Corresponding defects, equally due to absence of right habits, account for imperfect morals. The individual is as dependent here on inventions and discoveries as in engineering or chemistry. SECTION 4. THE SCIENTIFICALLY TRAINED INDIVIDUAL. 29 of a science, owing to the presence of sifted facts and ex- planations, may allow of ready and speedy generalisation and deduction, whereas at the birth of a science the initial ignorance may compel exhaustive enquiries and tediously slow advance. Compare in this respect medieval alchemy with twentieth cen- tury chemistry. So, too, the application of experiment, of de- duction, of mathematical formula, of comparative or genetic methods, depends on the subject matter and on the stage of development of any science. As a consequence, when the botanist, for example, turns to politics or to religion, one gene- rally observes that there is no noteworthy distinction between the precariousness of his judgments and those of the typical politician or theologian. x Indeed, in his crude attempt to apply in a generalised form the methods he employs in his highly specialised science, he is not seldom grievously in error. Some of the scientific light sheds no doubt a weak, phosphorescent illumination over nearly his whole intellectual being ; but this is of trifling account. The theory of teaching men to be scientific in their general thought by bringing them into contact with some particular science is, therefore, plausible, but nothing more. The fallacy just referred to is interestingly illustrated by the fortunes of psychology. In its earliest phases, and among the ancients generally, it was allied to metaphysics. At a certain point, as with Wolff and Kant, it became rational. When scientific enquiries began to grow common, men thought, as in England from the time of Hobbes to James Mill, that the method of developing a science of the mind was to eschew transcen- dental considerations and cultivate speculative introspection to which movement was due the associationist school. Herbart, who was much impressed with the grandeur of the science of physics and the value of mathematics, looked, in imitation of the physicists, upon ideas as isolated mind atoms governed by a law of levity, and endeavoured to explain the nature of the human mind by valuating these ideas and their relations mathematically. Fechner, following Weber, devoted himself to experiment, and constructed the science of psycho-physics. With Wundt psychology became predominantly physiological', and to-day the tendency is to place the emphasis on the in- stincts and on the emotional and volitional life generally, whilst new schools are emerging stressing the psychology of the un- conscious, the aspect of behaviour, and the native psychic powers alleged to be revealed by psychological tests. Nor can we do more than allude to the efforts to comprehend the mind through the study of abnormal states, through the growth of mind in the individual, in races, and in animal life, or through all these combined. Whether a haven of rest has been reached by psy- 1 The absence of a general methodology explains how men of scientific distinction are frequently found to be outrageously unscientific when passing judgment on problems outside their domain. 30 PART I. THE PROBLEM. chologists, is more than questionable. Here we need only note the almost insuperable obstacles, due to subject-matter and stage of development which have to be encountered in trans- ferring the traditional method of one science to another passing through a different phase. Ordinarily this is facilitated through one science imperceptibly developing out of a closely related one; but where there is a comparatively abrupt commencement, there, as in psychology and in the cultural sciences generally, owing to the lack of a scientific method of a general character, no manifest point of departure presents itself, and hence cen- turies may be lost in groping for the method proper to the new enquiry. The same difficulty, having its origin in identical causes, is encountered in every attempt to skip several historic stages, and it is for this reason that the development of science has been so schematic from the simple to the complex and that u the history of science presents us with no example of an individual mind throwing itself far in advance of its contempo- raries". 1 (Brewster, Life of Newton, 1875, p. 112.) Mathematics, dealing at first with concrete and then with idealised data, came first. Then followed Astronomy (where only the most general facts were and are taken into consideration), Molar Mechanics 2 (which is almost wholly a question of judiciously defining the motions of visible masses of matter in space and time), Ethereology (concerned often with imperceptible, but yet relatively isolated, facts, such as gravity, heat, light, electricity, magnetism, rays), Chemistry (where the combination of elements introduces a new factor, complicated however by the existence of inert elements refusing ttnsombine), Biology (which not only treats of highly complex chemical compounds, but also of the presence of intricate organic structures in the higher genera), Psychology (which depends on introspection, on a high and impartial standard of observation, and on a knowledge of the organism's, the individual's, and the community's development and needs), and the cultural sciences or specio-psy chics (which re- 1 Note that it is Newton's distinguished biographer who is responsible for this statement. 2 "By far the most general phenomenon with which we are acquainted, and that which occurs most constantly, in every enquiry into which we enter, is motion, and its communication. Dynamics, then, or the science of force and motion, is thus placed at the head of all the sciences; and, happily for human knowledge, it is one in which the highest certainty is obtainable v a certainty no way inferior to mathematical demonstration. As its axioms are few, simple, and in the highest degree distinct and definite, so they have at the same time an immediate relation to geometrical quantity, space, time, and direction, and thus accommodate themselves with remarkable facility to geometrical reasoning. Accordingly, their consequences may be pursued, by arguments purely mathematical, to any extent, insomuch that the limit of our knowledge of dynamics is determined only by that of pure mathe- matics, which is the case in no other branch of physical science." (Sir John Herschel, Discourse, [87.].) SECTION 4. THE SCIENTIFICALLY TRAINED INDIVIDUAL. 31 quire extensive physical, biological, and psychological knowledge for their comprehension). 1 Evidently a general science of pheno- mena, or a philosophy, will remain an unrealisable hope until most of the sciences are firmly established, and have ascertained the majority of the most comprehensive truths in their respective spheres, together with most of the principal verities common to them.- At first sight our contention that scientific tradition begins in confusion as to subject-matter and method, seems belied by the clear line .of advance from the simple sciences to the less simple ones which history chronicles. Further reflection, however, attests that man has always attempted to grapple with the subject-matter of most of the sciences, that is, that centuries of effort have been wasted in those cases, e.g., in the biological sciences, where the subject-matter investigated is of a laby- rinthine order, and presupposes the existence of certain as yet undeveloped sciences, e.g., chemistry. It is, therefore, an irre- sistible conclusion that scientific advance is only possible from the simple to the complex, that the complex will be erro- neously interpreted so long as the less complex has not been reduced to comparative simplicity, and that scientific advance must . remain tiresomely slow until general scientific methods have been discovered and are generally accepted, freeing the individual from the trammels of empirical and misleading tradi- tions and practices. A fruitful definition of science can only be attempted when we restrict ourselves to asking What does science mean in our day? Broadly speaking, it signifies for us moderns the deve- loping and connecting of certain departments of knowledge, such as theoretical and applied physics, biology, specio-psychics, and cosmology, and this by traditional methods far more circumspect than the ones commonly employed in practical life to-day. In its higher reaches it means further, as a rule, the endeavour to obtain a simple, unified, and incontrovertible view of nature and of life, through guarded and exhaustive observation, through subsequent bold and graded generalisation, and through verified deduction of the same type. 3 When, therefore, we wax enthu- 1 For a history of the classification of the sciences, see R. Flint, Philosophy as Scientia Scientiarum, and for a comprehensive scheme of classification, Conclusion 33. 2 E.g., note the complete dependence on fact of the argument in Henri Bergson's Donnees imm^diates. The neglect which overtakes philosophers generally is primarily due to their reliance on crude observation and un- sifted surmises. 3 "Experience presents to us a chaos of innumerable events, together and in succession. In this chaos, science has first to ascertain the facts; then, to ascertain 'what follows what', i.e., what facts are invariably connected together; and then, to account for those regular connections, to show how or why they are so connected." (S. H. Mellone, An Introductory Text-Book of Logic, 1905, p. 291.) "A science is, in all cases, a systematic body of know- ledge relating to some particular subject-matter." (James Welton, A Manual of Logic, 1896, vol. 1, p. 10.) 32 PART J.THE PROBLEM. siastic about science, we have in mind chiefly the large results achieved since the Renascence by the class of men conventionally called men of science, and the ingenious methods employed by them in research use of instruments, experiment, and mathe- matics. Perhaps in a thousand years' time men will understand by science something as far outstripping in serviceableness modern science as modern science outdistances the science of Aristotle's and Averroes' days in this matter. There is no occult quality inherent in the word science, for the laxest magic and the severest inductive procedure occupy one rising plane. 1 Speculative or objective method, deductive or inductive method, represent historic phases, all of which appear, and even are, right at certain periods. Belief in dogma or rejection of authority is also immaterial to the historical definition of science. The one distinguishing feature of the method of science observable historically is the progressive approximation to more and more successful methods of systematically, definitely, and convincingly establishing comprehensive uniformities. For our own day we should draw a somewhat sharp distinction between the world of science and the world of common sense. This distinction is manifestly justified when we reflect that to- day science aims primarily at theory and common sense pri- marily at practice. Whereas, therefore, the scientist is absorbed in understanding a microscopic section of existence, the layman generally thinks of how to procure comforts and luxuries. For this reason the layman perceives as a rule only the gross, coarse-grained facts, and is frequently interested in these alone, whilst his conclusions are crude ones, in harmony with his narrow experience and his homely wants. The scientist, on the other hand, esteems no effort too strenuous or too pro- longed to achieve a slight advance in comprehending a small part of nature. Therefore, as the one invents machinery in order to augment wealth and render social life safe and tolerable and co-operates with his fellows to this end, so the other, joining with fellow-labourers, explores the rich mines of fact by means of special instruments and the most patient syste- matised thought. The one desires to possess the world; the other to comprehend it. In the present age, therefore, com- mon knowledge and scientific knowledge, the world of prac- tice and the world of theory, tend too frequently to lie far apart, with the significant exception of the applied sciences and arts, scientific management of industry and commerce, 1 The following stages in the historical development of science may be roughly discriminated: unconsciousness of problems; magic; fetichism ; polytheism and philosophy; Greek, Roman, and Eastern science; theism; Arab school; Aristotle revived; earlier and later renascence; seventeenth and eighteenth century speculations, gropings, and advances; and the measurably superior speculations, gropings, and advances, of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. SECTION 4. THE SCIENTIFICALLY TRAINED INDIVIDUAL. 33 and hygiene, where both meet. 1 In the distant past this was not the case, because science, strictly speaking, was as yet scarcely developed; in the distant future this will be again different, for the scientific method will be, as we have already intimations to-day, a universal possession universally cherished and applied. Practice will then fraternise with theory, and theory be a close ally of practice. In essence, as we have seen, the world of experience is one and undivided, developing from wholly unsystematised and practical thought to wholly systematised and theoretico-practical cogitation. More than two generations ago Comte proposed a solution of the problem of how far the man of science should subordinate his researches to the needs of practice. We present the solution in his own words, only premising that the needs of applied science, and those of industrial and commercial activities generally, increasingly demand the initiation of theoretical researches; that in not a few cases it has been found practicable to pass backwards and forwards from theoretical to applied sciences and arts; and that, indeed, with the gradual subjugation of many scientific and practical spheres, a compendious theoretico-practical treatment will be effected with facility, and therefore grow common. "Immense as are the services rendered to Industry by Science, and although according to the striking aphorism of Bacon Knowledge is Power, we must never forget that the Sciences have a yet higher and more direct destination, that of satisfying the craving of our minds to know the laws of phenomena. . . . The general tendency of our time is, in this respect, defective and narrow. But, in the case of scientists, it is corrected, consciously or not, by the strong natural craving of which I have spoken. Otherwise the human intellect would be confined to researches of immediate practical utility, and, as Condorcet very justly remarked, would for that reason alone be completely arrested in its progress. This would be the case even as regards those practical applications to which we should have imprudently sacrificed the purely theoretical labours ; for the most important practical appli- cations are constantly derived from theories formed for purely scientific purposes, and which have often been cultivated during many centuries without producing any practical result. ... It is, therefore, evident, that, after the study of nature has been conceived in a general way as serving for the rational basis of our action upon it, we must next proceed to theoretical researches, leaving wholly on one side every practical con- sideration. Our means for discovering truth are so feeble that if we do not concentrate them exclusively upon this object, and if we hamper our search for truth with the extraneous condition that it shall have some 1 Theory owes already much to practice. "Pour preciser par quelques exemples les grands apports etrangers aux sciences naturelles qui les ont in- sensiblement creees ou periodiquement bouleversees, ^numerous rapidement et pele-mele les sacrifices religieux de victimes ani males et 1'examen de leurs visceres, les voyages commerciaux des Egyptiens et des Pheniciens, les jeux du cirque dans la Rome imp6riale, la decouverte de rAmerique et les ex- plorations ulterieures, la combinaison de lentilles qui fit' le microscope, la pose des cables transatlantiques qui conduisit aux grands dragages abyssaux, les recherches de Pasteur que les besoins de la brasserie amenerent par des etudes de chimie a transformer la biologic et la medecine." (Fr6de>ic Houssay, Nature et sciences naturelles, about 1903, pp. 1-2.) Thus chemistry had its origin in the desire for adornments, for fermented liquors, for dyes, and other useful articles, for medicines, and for transforming ordinary substances into gold. (See also Conclusion 32.) 34 PART I THE PROBLEM. immediate practical utility, it would be almost always impossible for us to succeed." 1 (The Fundamental Principles of the Positive Philosophy, ed. 1905, pp. 44-45.) Under present circumstances the scientifically and unscienti- fically trained adult agree in being g,uided by tradition, only that in the former instance the method customarily employed is immensely superior. In the true sense, the scientifically trained adult will only come into being when a tried methodology introduces the student to the meaning and methods of science. There is no valid reason why deliberate methodological train- ing should be postponed to the distant future. Far easier than semi-conscious conjecturing and interpreting of supposed methods on the basis of a medley of half-sifted facts and fancies, would it be for students to be deliberately educated in conformity, say, with the thirty-six Conclusions contained in Book II of this volume. By a combined theoretical and practical study (see Conclusions 8 to 10) the learner would in this manner arrive at being tolerably proficient in reading the secrets of nature and of life. If we imagine every teacher fairly trained in this respect at his or her college, it is to be presumed that the general instruction, work, and life of the school (and, it is hoped, of the home) may become permeated with at least the elements of the scientific spirit, especially if we note that the world about the child offers boundless opportunities for pur- poseful, methodical, and exact observation, generalisation, and theoretical and practical deduction. What is true of the child is a fortiori truer still of the adolescent and of the young men and women of university age. It is most desirable therefore that the introduction of this more excellent way of acquiring scientific skill should not be indefinitely postponed. Men of science should be surely the last in the world to insist on continuing a tradition for no better reason than that it exists. SECTION V. THE MAN OF GENIUS, AND THOUGHT AS HABIT- CONTROLLED AND AS A PAN-HUMAN PRODUCT. I. THOUGHT AS HABIT-CONTROLLED. 9. The super-chemistry of thought is more easily conceived in the abstract than concretely analysed. Stimulated by in- stincts and consequent desires, human thought enters the scene, and is primarily dependent for efficiency on a more or less complete and correlated memory. Yet, singularly enough, with all its perfection there is scarcely anything more imperfect than the human memory. First we note that our consciousness is almost like a sieve, for most of our sensations no sooner 1 Comte's view was manifestly correct as far as the stage of scientific development of his day was concerned. To-day already his reasoning is only partially justified, and in the course of time it will become obsolete. On the subject generally consult Conclusion 2B. SECTION 5. THE MAN OF GENIUS. 35 present themselves than they bow themselves out of existence. What remains, after the sieving process, is the merest fraction of that which has been perceived, or what has passed through our mind. Add to this, a rapidly fading memory which progres- sively obliterates most recollections of a few years' standing, and plays such havoc with the residue that where there were images full of colour and definiteness, the barest elusive half-shadow survives, and our difficulties will be appreciated. Then there is the fact that memories become frequently confused, mis- leading, transmuted, and that they more often than not refuse to appear when they are summoned. The Dreyfus trial in France, a generation ago, afforded a striking object lesson in regard to the short and erratic career of memories. However, it is not only that the memory is inherently an imperfect instrument, but the teleological or economic factor in mental life acts as a powerful disintegrating agent. Consider the case of a child who has learnt to write, and study the adaptations which follow as a consequence: When his studies commenced, he learnt that he must hold the pen in a certain position if he wished to write with ease, that the arm should not be placed as the reinless fancy prompted, and the like. He knew, broadly speaking, why he did things and how he did them. This know- ledge of the how and the why of the process was doqmed from the be- ginning. Gradually losing his interest in writing as such, having no longer any need to refer to that knowledge, and being eager to acquire other habits, he slowly forgets the how and the why. At first there was a bond of time and order : now all ties are gone. He cannot tell relationship, time, or succession. Each point is recollected independently of every other point. He cannot even indicate the what, though he knows what to do. The what has departed as a notion, and exists as a remembered act. As the child progressed there was no need to recollect the what, the how, the why, or any other system of relationships, and so these are forgotten. We detect here no substituted, transformed, or added con- stituent, only certain once existing factors have been removed. All that could be dispensed with has been cast aside. Again : If we are considerably interested in one thing, we cannot spare much interest for another thing at the same time. Thus there is a constant tendency for thoughts, as with animals in congested areas, to drive each other out of existence. Suppose a man thinks that it would be best to dismiss certain im- practicable thoughts immediately they occur, by turning his attention into other channels. An opportunity arrives, he remembers his resolution, and carries it into effect. After a period of practice the resolution is forgotten or not referred to; but whenever anything impracticable suggests itself he dismisses it immediately. The resolution forms now no link between the objectionable thought and the act of dismissal. As that thought appears, so it is thrust back. There may be, after a time, entire ignorance that certain thoughts are dismissed. The man may, e.g., either deny that such is the fact, or he may give some plausible, but inaccurate explanation. 1 Imagine now this process to begin from infancy, and to be carried up and on through life, afid it will be evident that human thought is essentially irrational, except at a very few points 1 G. Spiller, The Mind of Man. pp. 96, 95, 116. 36 PART I THE PROBLEM. where the irrationality is less marked. Naturally, too, as we advance in age and grow in wisdom we become more and more irrational, since we employ more and more aids and means whose intent eventually escapes us wholly or in great measure. Habit grows out of habit until w r e find a vast congeries of habits, practically each modified by each in a composite direction difficult to detect. Moreover, the irrationality is magnified, because unpremeditated and piecemeal adaptations play, apart even from feelings and sentiments, a conspicuous part in the process of mental growth. The conclusion is, accordingly, inevitable that an absolutist and atomist logic is impossible, for the reason that the human mind is relativist and organic in structure. Our memory is radically faulty, and our many urging desires add to the dis- order by annihilating almost everything of an explanatory or rational nature. Normally we do not act, therefore, in con- formity with reason; but in agreement with character, i.e., in accordance with a mass of more or less interconnected habits. II. THOUGHT AS A PAN-HUMAN PRODUCT. 10. Were this all, we might conceivably recover most of the threads which connect our mental life at every stage, by preserving faithful and complete accounts of what happens to a particular human being from infancy to maturity. In this way we should ultimately recognise the raison d'etre of thought and understand ourselves. Yet, granted that we could reduce to calculable terms our instincts and our emotions, and granted that we could follow the super-chemistry of thought in the in- fant and the young child, we should not really have advanced far, for thought is inter-individual and inter-social, and develops through the ages, from primitive times forward. Our imaginary observer would be obliged therefore not only to follow the life of one individual, but the life of the whole of humanity from ape-hood upwards, and he would notice that each generation transmits to its successor a bulkier and further metamorphosed bundle of habits in the form of records, traditions, customs, and manners even more irrational or incomplete than those passed on by one moment to another in the history of the indi- vidual. III. THE MAN OF GENIUS. 11. If towering geniuses existed who revolutionise the whole world of thought in their time, as the popular imagination is fond of surmising, much might be effected to re-form the trend of life on the high plane of reason by learning how their mind functions. Such geniuses, however, belong to the realm of fables. 1 The fancy evolves these by attributing to them, on 1 For one of many examples of the deep indebtedness of our leading thinkers, see "A Commemoration of Auguste Comte", by H. Gordon Jones, SECTION 5. THE MAN OF GENIUS. 37 the one hand, the work of generations, and by ignoring, on the other hand, the virtually infinite mass of human reason which obtains outside their sphere of activity. Men are very small indeed, compared to Man. Myriads of so-called men of genius could not have advanced us as far as plodding humanity has actually done. It would be, therefore, idle to hope much from a study of genius, for the roots of knowledge do not lie there. The very vocabulary which the man of genius must employ almost completely dominates and controls his thought, for therein are embodied innumerable discriminations and the generalisations accumulated by mankind, both as regards objects and methods, positively binding him as to the broad road which he is to tread. Consequently, for example, such terms as Conception, Obser- vation, Comparison, Abstraction, Generalisation, Definition, are accepted by thinkers from the past, and are interpreted primarily according to traditional conventions. To learn these terms con- scientiously by heart will no more lead to the appropriate actions than the committing to memory of any series of undeciphered hieroglyphics. And when we proceed a step farther and define what we mean, say, by Observing, we effect this with the help of other symbolic terms, which equally await interpretation by a fresh set of terms, and so on ad ind6fimtum. We are con- strained hence to assume that; the words we employ reflect certain actions or states, and, given an imperfect memory, the difficulty of correct interpretation becomes evident, especially when we remember that from generation to generation actions and states not only vary sensibly, but often conspicuously, to the extent of acquiring a wholly different and even contrary purport and connotation. The growth of languages admirably illustrates this profound socio-historic influence on thought, determined as this growth is by new discoveries, inventions, ways, experiences, errors, and prepossessions. And inasmuch as the task is principally humanity's and not that of any indi- vidual, it follows that the man of alleged genius is also a crea- ture of habit, and is almost completely dependent for proficiency in thinking on the scientific methods very gradually discovered by the race. 1 in the Positivist Review, Sept. 1st, 1913, where it is shoVn that Comte's fundamental conceptions were not, strictly speaking, his own. Comte illus- trates in this respect the rule. For a detailed refutation of the genius theory see the present author's forthcoming work, The Distinctive Nature of Man. "The popular mind spares itself effort by crediting the house to the man who lays the last tile and allowing his co-workers to drop out of view. . . . The resolving of human achievement into contributions of tens of thousands innovating individuals has, therefore, little in common with the theory of progress which gives the glory to a few Great Men." (E. A. Ross, Foundations of Sociology, 1905, pp. 227-228.) 1 Numerous illustrations in support of our contention in regard to tin- true place of the man of genius will be ^ound scattered throughout this volume. (See Index, under Genius.) 38 PART I. THE PROBLEM. IV. CONCLUSION. 12. Seeing that the struggle for existence among ideas in individuals and generations tends to eliminate everything that is superfluous in thought and conduct, all that is merely ex- planatory is of necessity forgotten, especially having regard to the imperfection of our memory. Consequently the individual cannot possibly think rationally or in accordance with absolutist standards. Since, moreover, culture is a pan-human and pro- gressive product, and its assimilation is mostly determined by capricious circumstances, we readily understand the egregious blunders of the child and the haphazard generalisations and ex- planations of the scientifically untrained adult. Nay more, we discern now that though the modern student of science is guided no doubt by more efficacious rules for the conduct of particular enquiries, these rules, if we take into consideration the whole sphere of thought, resemble oases in an illimitable desert, or tiny islands in the ocean. For this reason also those who are most distinguished are under the heaviest obligation to the methodological legacy of the ages. Correct and methodical thinking of a general character implies manifestly a special pro- cedure which no intelligence can adequately apply, save on the basis of an appropriate methodology which has been scienti- fically abstracted from the most successful practice of men of science, which practice is itself the outcome of mankind's growing and clarifying experience. A scientific methodology is therefore a sine qua non for rapid progress. At the same time, since it is not a question of applying new or rare mental powers in methodology any more than, say, in machine construction, there is no reason why such a theory of efficiency, pedagogically inculcated, should present in the process of acquisition more obstacles than the many obscure and unconnected rules which precariously pilot men's cogitations in our age. Hence a high level of average thinking should follow a completer systematisation of contemporary scientific methods of enquiry. We shall conclude Part I by tracing, agreeably to the rela- tivist conception verified in the preceding five Sections, the historic process of methodological theory as crystallised in the works of the historically most prominent methodologists. SECTION VI. THE PROGRESS OF METHODOLOGICAL THEORY. 13. The gem of untold value in Aristotle's Organon is undoubtedly his syllogism. The naming of its several parts, its figures and moods, together with the establishment of the nature of a good definition and a proper classification, the determination of kinds of causes and of categories, an exposure SECTIONS. THE PROGRESS OF METHODOLOGICAL THEORY. 39 of fallacies 1 , and analogous sections, practically shrink into insignificance before the syllogism itself. Here we are offered a formal and infallible method of testing, a proposition, or at least certain propositions, and this represents, therefore, a discovery fraught with the utmost consequence in the realm of ratiocination. Nor is there a doubt that Aristotle's syllogism has entered the very marrow of social thought, and that even his uncompromising opponents are deeply indebted to him. It must be said also that many sophisms would never appear plausible if men applied the syllogism more generally. The syllogism constitutes a formal method of testing the soundness of a statement by showing how it necessarily follows from certain accepted premises ; it does not represent the whole of the reasoning process. Not only does it disregard the fact that all but the rarest conclusions deal with probability and not with certainty ; but unless employed as a merely mechanical test of the reasoning process, it is meaningless. If any one had greeted a neighbour of Socrates with "All men are mortal, Socra- tes is a man, Therefore Socrates is mortal!" this neighbour would have been at once concerned about the questioner's sanity. He would have protested: "Have I asked you whether all men are mortal, or had you any reason to believe that I was interested in man's mortality?" and he might have added: "Why should there be a reference to Socrates; why do you draw a conclusion; and why should you have launched the three sentences at n%y head at all ? " Even the proposer of the above syllogism would meet it with an uneasy note of inter- rogation if it welled up in his mind a propos of nothing in particular. Manifestly, the syllogism presupposes the desire to know whether Socrates is mortal, and this desire arises again out of an extensive succession of interrelated and mostly undetermined situations which cannot be reduced to a chain of syllogisms, as will be evident from the arguments advanced in the preceding Section. When we further consider, also in con- sonance with the last Section, that knowledge is commonly acquired in a fortuitous fashion, and that habits and the associa- tive processes provide many short routes to a conclusion, it should be readily granted that the syllogism does not reflect the normal process of reflective thought. In pure reason, seeing a mushroom, I argue: "All mushrooms are good to eat; this is a mushroom; therefore it is good to eat"; but, in practice, I feel hungry, I chance to see a mushroom in the wood where I am strolling, and, without thinking, I take it and eat it, as 1 The art of detecting fallacies is rendered almost superfluous when our primary concern is with the facts underlying propositions. Under such con- ditions terminological difficulties are reduced to a minimum. On the subject of fallacies, Prof. Sidgwick's special work (Fallacies, London, 1883) may be consulted with advantage. See also Mill's luminous and unconventional exposition of the subject in Book 5 of his Logic. 40 PART I. THE PROBLEM. I have taken and eaten mushrooms on similar occasions. The syllogism, in this particular instance, is altogether wanting. The actual and the ideal. reasoning processes differ, therefore, fun- damentally as a rule. The specific value of the syllogism lies in its being a touchstone for dogmatic statements. Where, however, statements are un- dogmatic, its value is reduced almost to zero. If we said "It is probable that all men are mortal ; Socrates is perhaps to be classed as a man", we should be scarcely warranted to state dogmatically more than that "there is an indeterminable pro- bability that Socrates is mortal". It is true that we possess relatively excellent reasons for believing that every human being, born in any land on the earth, and at any period up to some 120 years ago, has died, and that the men of the present day and those of the comparatively near future are also eminently likely to die; but dogmatically we are not entitled to state in our age that mortality is a permanent attribute of every human being as such. 1 We are dealing here with a purely empirical generalisation. Accordingly, it is not certain, as the school syllogism appears to prove, . that Socrates is mortal, save by arbitrarily assuming that all men are mortal. Even the leading facts of gravitation and evolution have nothing absolute about them when regarded in the light of the eternities, and the laws of mathematics and of thought have had their alleged im- mutable character challenged; and, besides, who knows what the science of to-morrow will be able to accomplish in the matter of extending man's term of life ?' 2 From this it follows that indifferent use can be made as yet of the syllogism as an instrument of science, and this view is strengthened when 1 The most securely established generalisations in science frequently have exceptions: "The presence of chlorophyll, which had always been associated only with plant organisms, was detected by Max Schultze in 1851 in the ani- mals Hydra and Vortex, and later on by Ray Lankester in Spongilla and by Patrick Geddes in some Turbellarian worms." (Encycl. Britannica, llth edi- tion, article "Parasitism", by P. C. Mitchell, p. 794.) And yet we must remember that "in many cases where animals of some size have a green colour and are apparently able to subsist on simple chemical substances, this appearance has been shown to be due to the fact that their bodies are the homes of multitudes of minute plants, which grow in them and give them their colour by shining through the more or less transparent substance of the body, but which sooner or later are digested by the animals in which they live and serve as their food". (E. W. McBride, Zoology, 1911(?), p. 8.) Again. "During the last ten years living larvae have been produced by chemical agencies from the unfertilised eggs of sea-urchins, star-fish, holo- thurians, and a number of annelids and molluscs." (Article by Jacques Loeb on an "Experimental Study of the Influence of Environment on Animals", in Darwin and Modern Science, ed. by A. C. Seward, 1909, p. 251.) It should be remembered also that whilst some of the Ephemeridae live only a few hours, certain species of trees have a life-span of several thousand years. Nor should we forget that, barring accident, the protozoa are con- sidered immortal, and that this is almost certainly true of the reproductive germs. 2 E. Metchnikoff, The Prolongation of Life, 1910. SECTION 6 THE PROGRESS OF METHODOLOGICAL THEORY. 41 we consider that the overwhelming majority of syllogisms in books on logic are fatuously trivial, mostly confirming what no one would ever think worthy of contesting. Psychologically the syllogism may be said to depend on the emergence of a doubt concerning the validity of a certain plausible statement; on the consequent suggestion that this doubt would be removed if the statement could be shown to be involved in a more comprehensive and indubitable statement; and, lastly, after reflection, on the more formal setting out of the more comprehensive statement if any such can be found, the middle or mediating statement, and, in the form of a con- clusion, the statement to be proved. The process might be expressed by some such reasoning: "You desired to have it proved that Socrates is mortal. Well, then, if you are able to agree that all men are mortal, and if you can further agree that Socrates is a man, it will follow of necessity that Socrates, being a man, is mortal. Here is, therefore, the proof which you were solicitous to obtain." That is, by employing an in- genious formula, we convert a confused into a clear thought. To avoid that the syllogism should be question-begging, it might formally run: ''Problem: Desired to prove that Socrates is mortal. Proof: If (it be agreed that) all men are mortal, and if (it be agreed that) Socrates is a man, then (it must be agreed that) Socrates is mortal. The proposition that Socrates is mortal is thus proved (for him who agrees to the two conditional statements)." 1 2 14. In early days, when scarcely anything was known of the vast world, and the vast world seemed very small and like an open book or rather pamphlet," men demanded verbal clearness and consistency in statements as tests which are readily appli- 1 A well known university professor writes to the author: "I seriously believe that the slow progress of science is largely due to the deterioration of the scientific powers of the young mind in this long enduring official logic oscillating between syllogistic platitudes and ingenious fallacy-hunting, until all real interest in and inquiry into nature and life are lost sight of. and the patient is ready to go on to the bar, or some kindred destination." 2 Before Mill, logic was almost universally identified with deductive or syllogistic logic. "The rules of logic have nothing to do with the truth or falsity of the premises, but merely teach us to decide (not whether the premises are fairly laid down, but) whether the conclusion follows fairly from the premises or not." (Whately, Elements of Logic, 1827, p. 210.) The tendency is now to identify logic with the analysis of the nature of judgments. "Logik ist Urteilslehre", says Windelband. (Logik, p. 189.) Algebraic or symbolic logic does not concern us in this volume, inasmuch as according to one of its exponents, "natural science is not immediately furthered by the rules of the logical calculus". (A. T. Shearman, "Some Controverted Points in Symbolic Logic", in Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society, 1905. p. 99.) Earlier classics on the subject are: S.Boole, An Investigation of the Laws of Thought, and De Morgan, Formal Logic. In Principia Mathe- matica, Whitehead and Russell apply the logical calculus to mathematics. 3 To appreciate the remarkable contrast between pre-scientific naivete and scientific profundity, let the reader compare John Ruskin's conception of the origin of Alpine and English scenery in his Frondes Agrestes, with Lord 42 PART l.THE PROBLEM. cable under such inexacting conditions. 1 When, however, the immeasurable expanse and complexity of the Universe came to be suspected, verbalism lost its hold, and men turned from words to things, transferring the emphasis from proofs to methods of discovery.- As an outcome of this advance we have Bacon's Novum Organum, an attempt mainly to facilitate the collection of flawless major premises. Unfortunately, Bacon, unlike Aris- totle, never exhausted and systematised his central thought. The multitude of his prerogatives constitute tricks of a trade, not a systematic procedure, and the deadly denunciation of the speculative method possesses after all only negative value. Instead of a system, we find many excellent hints and one example. From this example the method employed in the discovery of the nature of heat we learn most. Bacon bids us turn to the facts, and cease drawing conclusions from pro- positions which have not been established inductively. He insists that "all interpretation of nature commences with the senses, and leads from the perceptions of the senses by a straight, regular, and guarded path to the perceptions of the understanding". (Novum Organum, bk. 2, 38.) Observation should be virtually exhaustive in regard to variety, so far as classes of relevant facts are concerned. 8 We are to observe; we are to move step by step, and not to aim directly at distant conclusions; we are to watch for the presence of a quality ("Instances agreeing in the nature of heat") or its absence under similar circumstances ("Instances in proximity where the nature of heat is absent"); we are to examine the degree of the pre- sence of a quality ("Table of degrees or comparison in heat"); we are systematically to exclude from the three preceding collections what is immaterial to the issue ("Exclusion or re- jection of natures from the form of heat"); and, finally, we are to formulate a double conclusion, theoretical and practical (First and Second Vintage). The purpose of science, on the Avebury's The Scenery of Switzerland and The Scenery of England. The pettiness of the former and the grandeur of the latter view well exemplify what humanity has gained by an objective study of nature. 1 "Generalisations approximately true, or possessing a certain degree of probability; hypotheses held loosely until verification is possible . . ., of these Aristotle did not treat." (Naden, Induction and Deduction, p. 24.) 2 Modern logicians are reconciled to modern needs. "Applied logic", Lotze tells us, "must . . . sacrifice the love of systematisation to considerations ot utility, and select what the experience of science has so far shown to be important and fruitful." (Logic, vol. 1, p. 11.) "The mandate issued to the age of Plato and Aristotle was Bring your beliefs into harmony with one another. . . . The mandate of the Mediaeval Spirit was Bring your beliefs into harmony with dogma. . . . Then ... a new spirit was roused, the mandate of which was, Bring your beliefs into har- mony with facts." (W. Minto, Logic, Inductive and Deductive, 1893, p. 243.) Arthur Lynch, in his Psychology: A New System, 1912, part 1, ch.2, deals nt some length with modern scientific methods. 3 To this principle he remained faithful in the many investigations which lie undertook. SECTION 6. THE PROGRESS OF METHODOLOGICAL THEORY. 43 theoretical side, Bacon defines to be "the knowledge of causes and secret motions of things" (New Atlantis)-, or as he expresses this in another place: "the true and lawful goal of the sciences is none other than this : that human life be endowed with new discoveries and powers". (Novum Organum, bk. 1, 81.) There is a popular proverb to the effect that "the proof of the pudding lies in the eating", and one would be justified in maintaining that the proof of a method lies in its results. Now in the above example Bacon reaches the conclusion that "heat is a motion, expansive, restrained, and acting in its strife upon the smaller particles of bodies" (bk. 2, 20), and modern science concurs that heat is a mode of motion, that it is ex- pansive, and is concerned with the molecules of which bodies are composed. 1 All circumstances considered, this is an epoch- making discovery. To arrive at this result Bacon examines exhaustively classes of instances where heat appears as well as the degree of the heat, and where it is absent under cir- cumstances corresponding to those where heat is present. He then excludes all factors not common to every instance of heat, formulates a careful definition embodying the results obtained, and draws certain deductions. The virtue of this method is obvious. It involves a compre- hensive and cautious general survey of the facts and a syste- matic elimination of everything that is irrelevant to the matter in hand a proceeding which, if universally imitated, would invalidate partially or wholly most of the conclusions reached in the more strictly human sciences, and would materially en- rich the established physical and biological sciences where, as a rule, only prominent thinkers follow this direction. It is the very opposite of the all too common practice of cursory obser- vation, chance generalisation, and casual verification. Up to the present this central method of Bacon's is the only one which has striven to arrive at truth through a series of syn- thetically connected links instead of through some jumpy, vague, or disconnected mode of procedure, and may therefore be said still to be without a peer or even rival. Granted that it is only applicable to less obscure problems of a general character, that it requires subsidiary aids as Bacon concedes,- and that its rigour may be somewhat relaxed under relatively favourable circumstances where many relevant facts are scientifically estab- lished, there is still enormous scope for its use. The method seems to be in place in the cultural sciences generally, and in all others so far as the facts are open to inspection. Reluctance lo be bound by exacting rules, convenience in following others 1 Compare John Tyndall, Heat as a Mode of Motion, 1887, and J. Clerk Maxwell, Theory of Heat, 1894. 2 In his "histories" there is no clear indication of the employment of subsidiary aids, and yet the presence of such aids is the ultimate criterion of a complete methodology. 44 PART I. THE PROBLEM. sheepishly, an adventurous delight in entrusting the bark of science to good fortune, and a desire of reaching conclusions rapidly, may have much to do with the prevalent neglect of consciously employing, even in part, Bacon's method-in-chief. Methodologists, however, may in time return to it, seeing that they, through John Stuart Mill's Canons, have adopted, almost in its entirety, the skeleton of the method, only separating it into independent parts and neglecting the subsequent processes of exact definition of the comprehensive conclusion or state- ment arrived at and the theoretical and practical deductions which are to be drawn therefrom. Indirectly Bacon thus con- tinues to hold the field, and the sole alternative to adopting his comprehensive and synthetic method of investigation is to substitute an equally comprehensive and synthetic method of a more modern character. It is inconceivable that educated men and women will much longer tolerate the farrago of blurred and inarticulated half-rules which now passes under the name of methodology. They will ask that we either return to Bacon, or that we transcend him through a method even more comprehensive than his. (See Conclusion 2 for such a method.) As we have seen, exception could hardly be taken to the example analysed by Bacon, were it not that it is only an example, and that an example which is not succeeded by a number of other examples and a series of conclusions, is liable to be interpreted in more ways than one, and cannot illustrate every possible case. The nature of observation, experimen- tation, generalisation, definition, deduction, and the process of forming hypotheses as well as the mode of verifying them, in conjunction with sundry other matters, including the categories into which phenomena can be profitably divided, should have been determined as precisely as possible by Bacon; and pro- bably if his life had not been abruptly terminated through ex- cessive scientific zeal, and if he had not attempted to achieve what is beyond the powers of an isolated individual, he might have given his Novum Organum a systematic form. Bacon, as we shall endeavour to show in the sequel, was sub- stantially right in respect of the method of science. His numer- ous allusions to experiments undertaken by himself in order to verify some conjecture, demonstrate his respect for the ex- perimental method, whilst his fierce attacks on the deductive mode of enquiry are really directed against utilising propositions which are not based on a study of facts and are not succeeded by scrupulous verification. Even an uncompromising critic like Miss Naden admits that "his error is not the rejection, but the postponement, of deduction". (Induction and Deduction, p. 45.) 1 "My directions for the interpretation of nature embrace two generic divisions: the one, how to educe and form axioms from experience; the other, how to deduce and derive new experiments from axioms." (Novum Organnm, bk. 2, 10.) SECTION 6. THE PROGRESS OF METHODOLOGICAL THEORY. 45 When we remember that Bacon wrote at the very dawn of modern science, that the few experimenters of his day were scarcely distinguishable in the swarm of alchemists, astrologers, and magicians, and that even the terminology at his disposal was unspeakably confusing, we shall not be surprised at his numerous misapprehensions and the comparative crudity which he displays. The admiration lavished by Herschel on Bacon as the father of inductive logic is richly deserved: "It is to our immortal countryman Bacon that we owe the broad an- nouncement of this grand and fertile principle, and the develop- ment of the idea, that the whole of natural philosophy consists entirely of a series of inductive generalisations, commencing with the most circumstantially stated particulars, and carried up to universal laws, or axioms, which comprehend in their statements every subordinate degree of generality, and of a corresponding series of inverted reasoning from generals to particulars, by which these axioms are traced back into their remote consequences, and all particular propositions deduced from them; as well those by whose immediate consideration we rose to our discovery, as those of which we had no pre- vious knowledge." (Discourse, [96.].) Here we shall leave Bacon. 15. Reactions, if not inevitable, are common. Thus it is not sur- prising that attempts should have been made to remove the laurel wreath from Francis Bacon's brow and place it on Roger Bacon's. This method of referring back systems of thought to some real or imaginary precursor has its dangers, for the process permits of indefinite extension. Thus we read concerning Roger Bacon: "Baco hatte seine philosophische Anregung hauptsachlich aus den Arabern gescho'pft." (Karl Werner, Die Kosmologie und allgemeine Naturlehre des Roger Baco, Vienna, 1879, p. 5.) Nor was he inclined to be heretical in theology: "Bacon accepted the dominant mediaeval convictions: the entire truth of scripture; the absolute validity of the revealed religion, with its dogmatic formulation ; also (to his detri- ment) the universally prevailing view that the end of all the sciences is to serve their queen, theology." (H. O. Taylor, The Mediaeval Mind. vol. 2, 1919, p. 515.) As for his ethics: "C'esf a Aristote surtout que sont empruntees la plupart des idees de Bacon sur la vertu." (Emile Charles, Roger Bacon, 1861, p. 257.) In respect of his Optics, this was "based upon the great work of Alhazen" (J. H. Bridges, Life and Work of Roger Bacon, 1914, p. 24); "Mathematics in Bacon's mind was little more than astronomy" (D. E. Smith, in "On the place of Roger Bacon in the History of Mathematics", in Roger Bacon, ed. by A. G. Little, 1914, p. 174); and his experiments with burning glasses, etc., were repetitions of well-known attempts. (A. G. Little, Part of the Opus Tertium of Roger Bacon, 1912, p. xxxvii.) So also Charles informs us in the course of his erudite in- vestigation that "la plupart des decouvertes de Bacon en optique ne sont pas plus reelles que les precedentes" (op. cit., p. 302), that is, those re- lating to bridges, gunpowder, and the like. And concerning his scientific equipment we learn that Bacon was "trained in scientific method by Grosseteste and other members of the English mathematical school". (Bridges, op. cit., p. 24.) Indeed, nothing more fantastic and untrustworthy can be imagined in our age, than the medieval science of Roger Bacon borrowed from his contemporaries, as exemplified, for instance, in The Mirror of Alchemy, etc., a translation of which treatises appeared in 1597; in The Cure of Old Age and Preservation of Youth, ed. 1683 ; or in the third part of Friedrich Roth-Scholtzen's Deutsches Theatrum Chemicum, part 3, 1732. 46 PART I. TEE PROBLEM. Any such care on experiments as Francis Bacon bestows, appears to be practically absent in Roger Bacon. His method was apparently urged in self-defence of his views, rather than as an expression of his desire to elaborate a methodology, and his conception of "experience" was, because of his age, primitive in the extreme, and approached therefore that of the scienceless "practical man" rather than that of the modern savant. This appears to be borne out by Mr. Lynn Thorndike's Roger Bacon and the Experimental Method in the Middle Ages : "The collection of facts was another engrossing pursuit [of the Middle Ages], as the vo- luminous mediaeval encyclopedias testify ; there was keen curiosity about the things of this world." (P. 277.) "Bacon's discussion of experimental science, on its positive side, amounts to little more than a recognition of experience as a criterion of truth and promulgation of the phrase 'experi- mental science'." (P. 283.) And Thorndike sums up: "On the whole, one rather gets the impression that the experimental method that Bacon pleads for, as if it were a novelty, is already assumed by other writers as a well- established method." (P. 290.) Having stated so much in criticism, we quote with pleasure a laudatory passage relating to Roger Bacon's con- ception of method. Robert Adamson, in his Roger Bacon (Manchester. 1876, pp. 32-33) concludes: "So far as I can gather, the ideal natural phi- losophy, according to Roger Bacon, consisted of the following steps : (1) Application of mathematics to the determination of the simple laws of force ; (2) observation and comparison of the complex phenomena of na- ture; (3) deductive application of the elementary mathematical principles, the laws of force, to the observed phenomena ; (4) experimental verifi- cation of the results deductively obtained." According to Charles, whose work is virtually exhaustive, Roger Bacon recognised three ways of reaching truth "1'autorite, qui ne peut produire que la oi, et d'ailleurs doit se justifier aux yeux de la raison; le raison- nement, dont les conclusions les plus certaines laissent a desirer, si on ne les verifie pas; et enfin 1'experience, qui se suffit a elle-meme". (P. 112.) The only passage Charles quotes from Roger Bacon refers to "1'autorite indigne et fragile, 1'empire de la routine, la stupidite du vulgaire, 1'amour- propre des savants, qui leur fait cacher leur ignorance sous 1'etalage d'une science apparente" (p. 99); or in English: "the example of frail and un- worthy authority, long-established custom, the sense of the ignorant crowd, and the hiding of one's own ignorance under the shadow of wisdom". (H. 0. Taylor, op. cit., p. 524.) In fact, Roger Bacon did not pass beyond methodological generalities: "For rules of induction, even faintly analogous to those of the Novum Organum, the student of the Opus Magnum will seek in vain" (J. H. Bridges, op. cit., p. 160), a dictum which is by no means invalidated by the numerous quotations in J.V.Marmery's Progress of Science, 1895. Perhaps the following passage from Roger Bacon approaches most nearly the methodological spirit of modern times: "The true method of research, says Bacon in the Compendium studii, 'is to study first what properly conies first in any science, the easier before the more difficult, the general before the particular, the less before the greater. The student's business should lie in chosen and useful topics, because life is short; and these should be set forth with clearness and certitude, which is impossible without experientia. Because, although we know through three means, authority, reason, and experentia, yet authority is not wise unless its reason be given, nor does it give knowledge, but belief. We believe, but do not know, from authority. Nor can reason distinguish sophistry from demon- stration, unless we know that the conclusion is attested by facts. Yet the fruits of study are insignificant at the present time, and the secret and great matters of wisdom are unknown to the crowd of students.'" (H. O. Taylor, op. cit., p. 538.) To sum up, Roger Bacon may be considered to have been among the advance guard of his time, as Francis Bacon was of his. The elaboration of a sound methodology was scarcely feasible in Francis Bacon's day when SECTION 6. THE PROGRESS OF METHODOLOGICAL THEORY. 47 the sun of science had just risen; it was altogether impossible in Roger Bacon's period when pioneers were groping to escape from the pitch-dark- night and superstition of the early Middle Ages. (See also J. E. Sandys, Roger Bacon, 1914; and S. Vogl, Die Physik Roger Bacos, 1906.) 16. Descartes' method tends to lure us away from out- ward nature, and lays the stress on speculatively obtained pro- positions or general principles. The great desideratum, accord- ing to the illustrious French philosopher, is to possess clear and distinct 1 ideas, and to reject everything which does not harmonise with these. Pursuing this method, we shall, he assures us, discover the fundamentals of existence, and from them all the other facts will be deducible. The vital step to take is "to divest oneself of preconceptions and study propo- sitions exhaustively and impartially, making as complete a sur- vey of our material as possible, and simplifying our problems to the uttermost. Induction is here the handmaid of deduction, and the aim is to discover, right at the threshold, the highest generalities, and utilise these for deductive ends. (Discourx sur la methode, I, 19.) Leaving aside his solid contributions to mathematics, Descartes' method has exerted but a feeble in- fluence on scientific progress, for the sufficient reason that terms such as Clear and Distinct, on which he places such emphasis, do not admit of exact definition, that trains of reasoning are even more dangerous to rely on than the per- ceptions of the senses, and because he preferred reasoning from speculative propositions rather than objective study, seeking in this way to apply pre-scientific methods in a growingly scientific age.' 2 Just as Bacon for all intents and purposes first developed to a high degree the inductive method and over-stressed it, so Descartes was virtually the first to emphasise the signal value of deductive and mathematical treatment without appreciating their severe limitations. In connection both with Francis Bacon and Descartes it may not be amiss to notice that methodology formed their principal life-interest. Bertrand Russell, in his Our Knowledge of the External World as a Field for Scientific Method in Philosophy, 1914, appears to aim at reviving the Descartian point of view: "The nature of philosophic analysis, as illustrated in our previous lectures, can now be stated in general terms. We start from a body of common knowledge, which constitutes our data. On examination, the data are found to be complex, rather vague, and largely interdependent logically. By analysis we reduce them to propositions which are as nearly as possible simple and precise, and we arrange them in deductive chains, in which a certain number of initial propositions form a logical guarantee for all the rest. These initial propositions are premisses for the body of knowledge in question. Premisses are thus quite different from data they are simpler, more precise, and less affected 1 Locke preferred "determinate or determined". (Essay on the Human Understanding, Epistle to the Reader.) - Jevons says in this connection: "Descartes and Leibniz sometimes adopted hypothetical reasoning to the exclusion of experitnental verifica- tion." (Principles of Science, p. 508.) 48 PART I. THE PROBLEM. with logical redundancy. If the work of analysis has been performed completely, they will be wholly free from logical redundancy, wholly precise, and as simple as is logically compatible with their leading to the given body of knowledge. The discovery of these premisses belongs to philosophy; but the work of deducing the body of common knowledge from them belongs to mathematics, if 'mathematics' is interpreted in a somewhat liberal sense." (P. 211.) 17. The grandiose and historically recognised 1 attempts to unravel the problems of the scientific method have been historically so few that we must pass at one bound to John Stuart Mill, whose inductive logic is the first and, up to the present, the last truly systematic attempt to deal with the methodology of science, which has challenged the attention of the modern world. That he has to some extent succeeded is proven by the universal respect which his Logic still commands, and by the fact that since his time books on logic pay at least lip homage to inductive procedure. (See Conclusion 1.) From the point of view of method, his cardinal achievement is no doubt the list of scientific Canons which he compiled the methods of agreement, difference, agreement and difference, residue, and concomitant variation. These Canons do not possess the rigidity and completeness of the syllogism, and have there- fore been much criticised ; but they form nevertheless a monu- mental landmark in the history of methodology. They also agree in intention with the syllogism in that their object is to obtain indisputable proofs; 2 and perhaps if all the Canons could be applied, and were properly defined and respected, nothing but what is rigidly true would be accepted. Most of the praise bestowed on Mill's Canons should properly be trans- ferred to Bacon who, it is persistently asserted, had no clear insight into the method of science. Bacon's famous example of the investigation into the nature of heat explicitly involves the Canons 3 , with the exception of the admittedly least important joint method of agreement and difference, which are now identified with Mill. The earlier methodologist formulates, as we have seen, rules of affirmative and negative instances, of conco- mitant variations and exclusions which, save for the immaterial exception mentioned, are one with Mill's Canons; only Mill's Canons are more defi- nitely conceived, though not articulated as those of Bacon are. On the other hand, by ignoring the need, as pointed out by Bacon, for exhaustive 1 We say "historically recognised", for, e.gr., not a few would consider Sir John Herschel's presentation of methodology in his Discourse as pro- founder than that to be found in John Stuart Mill's Logic. - "It is with proof, as such, that logic is principally concerned." (Mill, Logic, bk. 3. ch. 9, 6.) " The appropriate problem of logic [is] the esti- mation of evidence." (Ibid., bk. 4, ch. 1, 1.) "The business of Inductive Logic is to provide rules and models (such as the syllogism and its rules are for ratiocination) to which, if inductive arguments conform, those argu- ments are conclusive, and not otherwise." (Ibid., bk. 3, ch. 9, 6.) Bain (Logic, vol. 2, p. 49) largely agrees with this: "Proof, more than discovery, is the end of logic." 3 "The principles on which [the Instances in Bacon] are arranged in Tables bear a close analogy to the principles on which the Canons [of Mill] are constructed." (Fowler, Logic, vol. 2, p. 211.) SECTION 6. THE PROGRESS OF METHODOLOGICAL THEORY. 49 examination and verification. Mill almost annihilated the virtues of his Canons, and practically cut himself off from contact with actual scientific work. Moreover, a study of Herschel's brilliant Preliminary Discourse, fer- vently admired by Charles Darwin, further reduces Mill's claims, for in the rules suggested by this immediate forerunner of Mill, Mill's whole set of Canons, with almost all its neatness, may be found approximately in Mill's words. This i.s a beautiful illustration of our contention that truth is progressive and represents a growing product of collective endeavour. Mill, in his Autobiography, informs us that, "under the impulse given me by the thoughts excited by Dr. Whewell, I read again Sir John Herschel's Discourse on the Study of Natural Philosophy, and I was able to measure the progress my mind had made, by the great help I now found in this work". (Ch. 6.) Herschel [145.] submits the following "general rules for guiding and facilitating our search, among a great mass of assembled facts", for their common cause: "(1) Invariable connection, and, in particular, invariable antecedence of the cause and consequence of the effect, unless prevented by some counteracting cause. (2) Invariable negation of the effect with absence of the cause, unless some other cause be capable of producing the same effect. (3) Increase or diminution of the effect, with the increased or diminished intensity of the cause, in cases which admit of increase and diminution. (4) Proportionality of the effect to its cause in all cases of direct unimpeded action. (5) Reversal of the effect with that of the cause." In this chapter Herschel speaks of "Agreement", 'Concomitant circumstances", and "Residual phenomena", and also judi- ciously illustrates the Method of Difference. With his noted candour Mill admits his debt to Herschel, saying that in this scholar's Discourse, "of all books which I have met with, the four methods of induction are distinctly recognised". (Logic, bk. 3, ch. 9, 3.) The following are Mill's Canons (bk. 3, ch. 8): First Canon. If two or more instances of the phenomenon under in- vestigation have only one circumstance in common, the circumstance in which alone all the instances agree is the cause (or effect) of the given phenomenon. (See Herschel, Discourse, [146-148.].) 1 Second Canon. If an instance in which the phenomenon under investi- gation occurs, and an instance in which it does not occur, have every circumstance in common, save one, that one occurring only in the former, the circumstance in which alone the two instances differ is the effect, or the cause, or an indispensable part of the cause, of the phenomenon. (See Herschel, Discourse, [156.].)' Third Canon. If two or more instances in which the phenomenon occurs have only one circumstance in common, while two or more in- stances in which it does not occur have nothing in common except the absence of that circumstance, the circumstance in which alone the two sets of instances differ is the effect, or the cause, or an indispensable part of the cause, of the phenomenon. Fourth Canon. Subduct from any phenomenon such part as is known by previous inductions to be the effect of certain antecedents, and the residue of the phenomenon is the effect of the remaining antecedents. (See Herschel, Discourse, [158.].) 1 Fifth Canon. Whatever phenomenon varies in any manner whenever another phenomenon varies in some particular manner, is either a cause or an effect of that phenomenon, or is connected with it through some fact of causation. (See Herschel, Discourse, [145.].) These Canons possess at least three grave defects. In dis- cussing the syllogism we pointed out that we are seldom in a position to possess exhaustive data or incontrovertible proof 1 In the wording of Mill's Canons there is a remarkable similarity to Herschel's sentences. 50 PART I. THE PROBLEM. of any matter, and from this it follows that in general scientific work the Canons could play but a small part, whilst in cultural investigations, for instance, there would be scarcely ever an opportunity of applying them. No doubt, in the manipulation of letters abode, abed, bed, ca,.dc we can readily detect what purports to be the common or differentiating fact, but in nature itself the component elements in a problem are unfortunately not lettered, 1 and certainty is, therefore, an ideal to be respect- fully approached rather than to be frequently attained in ex- perience. A good illustration of this are the many obstinate obscurities and difficulties encountered in consistently conceiving and interpreting the Periodic Law in chemistry. What is hence needed are additional Canons which shall deal with approximate truths, for only such truths are the staple product of modern science which has done once for all with the Noah's Ark world postulated by the ancients. Scores of passages like the following could be quoted to en- force the teaching of history that certainty is attained only slowly and laboriously: "A good deal of evidence has been accumulated in favour of the view that the meteorological conditions of our globe exhibit a periodicity of thirty-five years in other words, that there is a tendency for a similarity in the general run of the seasons to recur after the lapse of this interval of time. Bruckner's study of the information available regarding the variations of the water level in the Caspian Sea, first suggested this period. Russian records also contain a good deal of information regarding .floods or unusual shallowness of the rivers, and the dates of their opening and closing to navigation, and a close examination of this material tended to confirm the view. Subsequently, the investigation was extended to the water levels of lakes in other parts of the world, having inland drain- age, and the results were again in many instances broadly confirmatory of Bruckner's cycle. Records of the advance and recession of Alpine glaciers also supplied a certain amount of confirmation. The evidence in favour of the existence of a periodicity of thirty-five years has had to be culled, often with great labour, from historical documents in which references to meteorological phenomena are only incidental. Only by using such sources of information has it been possible to extend the inquiry over the greater part of the last two centuries. Such indirect evidence is not so satisfactory as we could wish, but the number of meteorological records which are of sufficient length to be of service in an inquiry of this sort is very small. Hann's examination of the rainfall records from Padua, Milan, and Klagenfurt, which cover the years from 1726 to 1900, has shown some indications of the reality of a period of average length of about thirty-five years. In the meteorology of the Southern hemisphere, different authors have found indications of the existence of a period of nineteen years. The records of Australia, South Africa, and South America all show suggestions of such a period, but as yet the evidence cannot be regarded as conclusive." (R. G. K. Lempfert, Weather Science, pp. 76-77.) A second defect is revealed when we attempt to apply the Canons. How many times must I determine agreement before the Canon of Agreement, for example, is satisfied? Or what 1 For an analogous criticism of Mill's alphabetic conception, see Whewell, Philosophy of Discovery, pp. 263, 264. SECTION 6. -THE PROGRESS OF METHODOLOGICAL THEORY. 51 shall ensure the correctness of our observations ? Is it sufficient to make one observation, or two, or five, or ten? Consider an instance. The inhabitants of Uganda suffer from sleeping sickness, and it is required to ascertain its cause. Some one submits that the Tsetse fly is answerable for the many deaths traceable to this disease. Does it, then, suffice to make one or two observations, and to note the presence of the fly in these cases ? But let us idealise our example, a process not contemplated by Mill. Suppose we learn that everybody in Uganda who is suffering from sleeping sickness has been molested by a Tsetse fly, that no one who has not been so molested has the particular sickness, and that more or fewer Tsetse flies means more or less sleeping sickness, does it follow now that the Tsetse fly is the direct cause of the sleeping sickness? Now, skilful observation has shown that the cause is some species of Trypanosome which, is harboured by the Tsetse fly. 1 Unless, therefore, we are absolutely sure with regard to the number of possible causes, and are certain, too, that we have observed correctly, the Canon can never be said to have been truly applied. In other words, Mill was unconscious of the impracticability of dealing with methods of 'proof apart from methods of discovery. Finally, the Canons only profess to be concerned with causes. Mill, following Herschel 2 , speaks of "the notion of cause being the root of the whole theory of induction" (Logic, p. 213), and of "inductive inquiry having for its object to ascertain what causes are connected with what effects" (p. 251). Yet in other places he tells us that "induction may be defined the operation of discovering and proving general propositions" (p. 186), that "induction is that operation of the mind by which we infer that what we know to be true in a particular case or cases, will be true in all cases which resemble the former in certain assignable respects" (p. 188), that "induction is a process of inference" (p. 188), and that "induction, properly so-called,... may, then, be summarily defined as Generalisation from Ex- perience" (p. 200). We are confronted here with a palpable contradiction, for we may generalise static facts as we may generalise causes; but the establishment of a cause is not called a generalisation, any more than the establishment of a fact as such. Mill's Canons do not, therefore, propose any tests dealing with generalisation as such, with generalisation as to objects and causes, or with facts as such. 3 1 In certain parts of Africa the Tsetse fly is not infected, and therefore innocuous. 2 Herschel, in this matter, followed Bacon, who was evidently following in others' footsteps: "It is a correct position that 'true knowledge is know- ledge by causes'." (Novum Organum, bk. 2, 2.) * A spirited attack on the Canons will be found in Bradley's Logic. pp. 331-342. 4* 52 PART I. THE PROBLEM. It is well known how scientists examine for months and years the distinctive characteristics of a substance or the influences which affect it, as is now the case with radium. Mill, on the other hand, lauded to the skies the liberal use of hypotheses, and left it to the art of education 1 , as distinct from logic, to train the human mind to wrestle with the subtlety of nature and prepare men for reading its secrets as if a fragmentary methodology were a methodology at all. "In scientific investi- gation," he writes, "as in all other works of human skill, the way of obtaining the end is seen as it were instinctively by some superior minds in some comparatively simple case, and is then, by judicious generalisation, adapted to the variety of complex cases." (Logic, bk. 6, ch. 1, 1.) With such an almost superstitious regard for the value of instinct' 2 or intuition matters are immensely simplified. Mill apparently never entered into the spirit of indefatigable experimentalists like Faraday, to whom it was "discomfort to reason upon data which admitted of doubt" (Tyndall, Faraday as a Discoverer, 1868, p. 41), nor did he consciously recognise that acknowledged scientific thinkers are as much observers as they are generalisers. If we add that Mill, agreeing in this with logicians generally, does not provide us with an adequate analysis of such terms as object, observation, hypothesis, generalisation, deduction, and verifica- tion, we shall be convinced that he did not exhaust his subject. In fact, an examination of Mill's Logic will show that, in the main, it presents a philosophical discussion of certain inductive principles rather than an attempt at constructing a compre- hensive or systematic methodology. We have seen that scientific thinkers grow into the methods which they happen to employ. It is consequently readily under- 1 So Welton (Manual of Logic, vol. 2, p. Ill): "The means of training the power of accurate observation belong to the general theory of education, not to logic." 2 Mill's point of view on this matter 'resembles so closely that of his immediate predecessor Whewell that there appears to be adequate reason for believing that Mill was strongly and fatally influenced by him. Since Mill abstracted the substance of the material for the inductive part of his Logic from Whewell (Autobiography, ch. 6), this is not astonishing. Whewell, in his Novum Organum Renovatum, 1858, says little in justification of the title of his work. "An art of discovery is not possible. At each step of the investigation are needed invention, sagacity, genius elements which no art can give." (P. v.) "Scientific discovery must ever depend upon some happy thought, of which we cannot trace the origin ; some fortunate cast of intellect, rising above all rules." (P. 44.) Nevertheless he presents some scheme: "We have the following series of processes concerned in the for- mation of science: (1) Decomposition of facts; (2) Measurement of pheno- mena; (3) Explication of conceptions; (4) Induction of laws of phenomena: (5) Induction of causes; (6) Application of inductive discoveries." (P. 143.) It was his objective manner of facing facts, his want of interest in the psychological processes which determine the arriving at a conclusion, that hid from Whewell the art of discovery. Unhappily his influence over Mill was paramount. Yet Mill recognised that "observation and experiment are the ultimate basis of all knowledge". (Bk. 3, ch. 10, 8.) SUCTION '.-CONCLUSION OF PART I. 53 stood that men acquainted closely with science, like Whewell and Jevons, who were not psychologists, should be unaware of the methods which they resort to in scientific enquiries, and that spectators, like John Stuart Mill, who discern only the final product, and that through the glasses of classicism, should not be explicit concerning the complex process which precedes the final drawing of a conclusion. SECTION VII. CONCLUSION. 18. In the preceding Sections it was explained wherein the problem of methodology lies. Individual minds left to their own devices, we learnt, are lost in clouds of words, and are prone to evolve error rather than truth. Thinking, however, in concert, men correct one another, and gradually, through the ages, develop methodological traditions of an increasingly higher order. Yet since these traditions lack unity, because each of them has developed in materially different circum- stances, they cannot be readily applied to new problems, nor can they be convincingly and systematically communicated. Concurrently, and keeping pace with the growth of these traditions, more or less crude systems of methodology, we observed, develop, and then pass away into more or less im- proved systems. The first impulse, encouraged by the belief, due to limited experience and naive desires, that the world of fact is devoid of complexity, was tacitly to postulate that final truth is the goal of the man of science, and accordingly the logic, associated for us with the name of Aristotle, held sway for a score of centuries. Indeed even now works on logic frequently regard the subjective intelligence and the objective world as if their processes could be neatly analysed and sepa- rated, at least by superior minds. So strong has been the primitive absolutist influence that methodological thinkers of later times, such as Descartes and Mill, oblivious of the changes wrought by time in the scientific conception of the world, strove to extend the old logical methods without attempting to shake the principle of absolutism or finalism in knowledge and thought. Only one eminent methodologist, Francis Bacon, explicitly re- cognised that the complexity of facts required methods which should accommodate themselves to the various imperfect phases of a scientific enquiry, and that such methods were not given, but had to be laboriously found. Lacking such a relativist foundation in harmony with the data and the needs of modern science, logic fell into disrepute, and the problem of this treatise is therefore, on the basis of the recognition of the socio-historic and consequently relativist nature of thought, to elaborate a scientific methodology, and thus to re-instate logic into its exalted position as the mistress of the sciences. 54 PART II. SOME IMPORTANT METHODOLOGICAL TERMS. PART II. DEFINITION OF SOME IMPORTANT METHODO- LOGICAL TERMS. SECTION VIII. OBJECT, FACT, ENVIRONMENT. 19. (A) OBJECT. The term Object is, as such, perhaps undefinable. A given object is that (object) which we choose to regard as having a separate or separable existence. 1 An atom in a molecule, a molecule in a nucleus, the nucleus itself, the cell, a piece of tissue, an organ, a system of organs, the organism, and so on, may severally be regarded as entities. (Conclusions 25 / and 22.) A tree, a wood, a landscape, a moun- tain range, a country, a continent, the earth, the solar system, the sidereal system, and the Universe, are objects. 2 In a puzzle picture, whose primary object it is to deceive, and in many geometrical designs, the same set of lines, according to the manner in which they are viewed or interpreted, yield dis- similar objects. Similarly with sounds. Uttering, for instance, several times in rapid succession the word "plea", we may imagine, according to choice or circumstance, that we are say- ing "leap" or "plea". Again, we may disregard the changes which are produced in the passage of time from the zygote to the new-born babe, and from the new-born babe to the man bowed down by age, or the transformations due to position in space and to other circumstances. Furthermore, just as we may ignore changes of time and space, we may pass over determinate quantity, as in the concepts man, redness, solidity, and the like, where the terms imply highly abstract and gene- ralised facts. Similarly, inasmuch as animate beings derive their nature from other animate beings, as a son from his parents; an animal and a plant from other animals and plants; one species from a preceding one; therefore mankind and the whole of animate existence may be conceived as one and undivided. The current methods of classification are, however, based on practical considerations, and separate movable ob- jectsan animal, a table are the conventional types of objects as such. Beyond this necessarily limited view of apprehending nature, convenience, interest, and an easy grasp and separation 1 "GegenstJinde oder Dinge sind von unserm Willen unabhangige Kom- plexe von Empfindungen, denen raumliche Selbstandigkeit und zeitliche Stetigkeit zukommt." (Wundt, Logik, vol.1, p. 454.) It need scarcely be pointed out that a complex of sensations is a thing or object, and that no sensation complex is entirely independent of discriminating intelligence. 2 "We can call a pile of wood, a pyramid of balls, or a heap of sand a unity or a thing, although it contains a plurality." (Sigwart, Logic, vol. 2, p. 82.) Sigwart discusses this subject somewhat fully, and Locke has a few apposite paragraphs in his Essay on the Human Understanding, bk. 2, ch. 23, 1-2. SECTION 8.- OBJECT, FACT, ENVIRONMENT. .~>5 by the senses or the intelligence, cpmmonly determine classi- fication. Sundry aspects in the conception of objects, derived from a methodical analysis based on Conclusion 25 /, and in agreement with Conclusion 20, should be noted: (1) the several atoms or smallest particles in an apple, for instance, are judged to be objects. (2) An apple, consisting as it does of various parts (peel, pips, etc.), is regarded as one object. (3) We separate sense impressions derived from many apples and name these qualities, as solidity and sweetness. (4) We disregard those special states of the apple which are ascribable to particular causes, e.g., disease. (5) The apple, conceived as changing from an arbitrary point (the fertilised ovum) to another arbitrary point (the state of decay), is considered as possessing an in- dependent existence. (6) As with the development of the apple, so with its antecedent and subsequent states the time before fertilisation of the ovum and after decay, practical reasons induce men to pass them over. (7) We form classes of objects in time sequence, of higher and higher categories, as in the theory of evolution where the rich life of to-day, including our apple, is traced back to the detachment of our planet and prior. (8) We combine smaller into larger aggregates in order of space apple, apple tree, orchard, village, district, province, country, continent, earth, solar system, Western Universe, Island Universe, Universe. (9) Influences of temperature and moisture, of atmospheric pressure, of gravitation, the constant removal and addition of minute particles, and the environmental influences generally as summed up in external physical, bio- logical, and cultural influences are, for practical purposes, arbitrarily ignored in the concept of an apple. (10) In all observation of an apple or of any other object memory enters in at least two forms as (a) special memory, in that we cannot focus an ordinary object in one single act or moment of time, and as (b) general memory, in that we only recognise an object by connecting it with preceding experiences. 1 Human convenience, then, determines the definition of an object, and, omitting- the Universe as object, we might define an object as a more or less arbitrarily selected or framed portion of the differences-containing Universe- which, for the sake of convenience, we choose to regard as having a more or less * 1 We pass methodically, according to Conclusion 27, from extreme minimum to extreme maximum. (1), (2), (3), and (4) are the four different aspects of an average apple or object other than single "atom". (5) and (6) follow development within, before, and after the apple's life time. (7) and (8) furnish the relations in time and space. (9) enumerates environmental factors. And (10) allows for the psychological aspect. - The less differentiated we imagine the constitution of the Universe to be, the greater will be our difficulty to perceive "objects". For instance, a white sheet of paper, viewed from a little distance by even illumination, can only be broken up with difficulty into subsidiary objects. 56 PART II. SOME IMPORTANT METHODOLOGICAL TERMS. separate and durable existence. Plato's permanent types do not appear therefore to receive any warrant from an analysis of the term Object, and Kant's Thing-in-itself apparently dissolves in the examination. Science is concerned with objects, and consequently it is important that we should be methodologically aware of the artificiality, ambiguity, or arbitrariness of the term Object. In applying, therefore, methodological canons, we should assume that the phenomenon we are scrutinising has only a separate or definite existence in a very limited sense, and that we should hence beware of isolating it too rigidly in our thought. 1 (The general nature of a given object is defined in Conclusion 3, and some of the main practical difficulties encountered in de- fining an object will be discussed in Conclusion 17.) 20. (B) FACT. Consonant with the preceding analysis of the term Object, a fact may be defined as a valid theory - in regard to the exact nature and relations of a certain portion of reality. That the sun gives light, that fire burns, that we are breathing, may appear to be occurrences so certain that the expression "valid theory" hardly does justice to them. Error, however, not only tends to invade the most unexpected places, as men of science will be the first to admit, but dreams and mental disorders further warn us against indulging in absolutist statements. Giddings says in his Inductive Sociology (p. 13): "A fact, in the scientific sense of the word, is the close agreement of many observations or measurements of the same phenomena." 21. (C) ENVIRONMENT. We may state that that which surrounds any fact constitutes its environment. Thus the indi- vidual's environment is the Universe minus himself, whilst he forms the environment for the world external to him. In the realm of ideas the same definition applies. When it is said, therefore, that man is a creature of his environment, it should be borne in mind that, being an integral part of the Universe, he shares power and influence with his environment. Similarly, when his impotence is sought to be demonstrated by fatalists on the assumption that he is a product of antecedent causes, we are bound to observe that as a component of the Universe he also is a cause. The law of action and reaction applies here. * In his highly suggestive volume {'Evolution creatrice, M. Henri Bergson provides good grounds for believing that it is only the practical nature of our intelligence, aiming as it does commonly at results and not at knowledge, which renders us sometimes forgetful of the fact that reality is in great measure a flux, and that definite objects, spaces, and times are unreal or, let us say, artifacts. Conclusion 27 emphasises, by its method of degree- determination, the need of doing justice to this flux. Complete indefiniteness, however, would be indistinguishable from blank nescience. - "In its most proper acceptation, theory means the completed result of philosophical induction from experience." (Mill, Logic.) SKCTION .9. OBSERVATION. 57 For practical ends the environment is frequently interpreted in a narrower and more specific sense, as in Conclusion 17 c. It is, in fact, of signal importance not only to employ the term with caution, but to remember in every enquiry both the vital fact involved therein, and the need of making thereof a limited use. SECTION IX. OBSERVATION. 22. To marvel at the twinkling stars; to contemplate the periodic transformations in the form of the moon and both its path and that of the sun; to observe the ebbing and the rising of the tide; to note stones falling and smoke rising; to perceive the flash of lightning and hear the rolling thunder; to experience sunshine, wind, rain, snow, and hail; to notice the conspicuous seasonal changes in plant life, and the general facts of variety, growth, and decay in animate beings; to learn of men of different shades of colour, and of the fortunes and falls of empires and nations; to visit churches, art galleries, factories, and homes, and to take stock of other striking and patent facts in the way the man in the street does, has scientifically a minimum value, because in no such instance are the material factors revealed to the unaided sense and the unassisted reason. Apart from science, he who is uninstructed is unaware, for example, that plants abstract from the air carbonic acid, and return to it oxygen and water vapour; nor that the action of the sun on the chloro- phyll,