//Dm/ University of California College of Agriculture Agricultural Experiment station Berkeley, California Statistical Analysis of the Annual Average F.O.B. Prices Pacific Coast Canned Pears, 1926-2? to 1951-52 by Sidney Hoos July \%2 Contribution from the Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics Mimeographed Report No. 135 UBRARY 1 statistical Analysis of the Annual Average F.O.B. Prices of Pacific Coast Canned Pears, 1926-2? to 1951-52 Sidney Hoosi'^ The purpose of this report is to present the results of a statistical analy- sis of the major factors which have influenced the annual average f .o.b. prices received for canned pears by canners on the Pacific Coast from 1926-2? through 1951-52. The years 19liO-ij.l through 19U5-U6 were excluded from the analysis be- cause of the abnormal conditions which prevailed during the war years, such as federal price control; and 19U6-[;7 was excluded because a large proportion of can- ner shipments went into the refilling of the supply pipe line rather than into consumers' hands. In the analysis the average relationships which prevailed between the f.o.b. prices of Pacific Coast canned pears and three factors were measured. These three factors are: (1) total domestic shipments of Pacific Coast canned pearsj (2) in- dex of nonagri cultural income payments in the United States; and (3) adjusted in- dex of prices of con?)eting canned fruits. Expressed in numerical terms, these average relations may be summarized as follows: (a) A change of one million cases in domestic shipments of Pacific Coast canned pears,. with nonagri cultural income and with competing canned fruit prices held constant, was on the average accompanied by a change in the opposite direction of about 33 cents per case in the f.o.b. price of canned Bartlett pears. (b) An increase of 10 per cent in the index of nonagricultural income in the United States, with domestic shipments of Pacific Coast canned pears and with prices of conpeting canned fruits held constant, was 1/ Professor of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Economist in the Experi- inent Station and on the Giannini Foundation. spoi'iq .d.o.l e^sievs xaunns ?nJ bsoae^iltij: svsa fioxriw sTOd'oai i. cz -ni (S) isxseq jjclxasl lo ainpr. -isetsol- a -nx baJ-c/T.'^;: (r"* y.np; ',^c:f'i f?. h?.+ 'rr" prft vir-^':'--~~ j^r-- •■ i "'."^ it--?^ -■ 2B basixemnu/a sc/ icsjn sfiox^slai egetevs ©spri* ^snnecf .tfi3xi£»nu;n nx bssssTcry,'? J-eso;':; TillO/r/i lo (j^nemqida oi^gsmob nx o in: ©no lo 95. bamuBO ^iTx iltiw bnR ^moonx Ismti -i5«rT : raiifuio w"c;soO oxixoB^ Jo sineraqxria r rxw ,aDc^iad-e bedxnU etii !iBW ^J'nB.tenoD blari e^xinl benneo 3i?ox'rq rfixw brrs e-xceq xi U 2. on the average accompanied by an increase of about h2 cents per case in the f.o.b. price of canned pears, (c) A change of 10 points in the adjusted index of prices of competing canned fruits, with domestic shipments of Pacific Coast canned pears and with nonagricultural income held constant, was on the average accompanied by a change in the same direction of about 2$ cents per case in the f.o.b. price of canned pears. Differences between the actual prices and those explained by the statistical analysis are given in Table h, column 3- The f.o.b. prices of canned Bartlett pears used in the report are industry average prices; they are based on records of canners and reflect actual operations of the canneries packing Bartlett pears in California and in the Pacific Northwest as compiled by the Canners League of California and the Northwest Canners Associa- tion. The domestic movement of canned Bartlett pears from canners in the three Pacific Coast states has been derived from statistics issued by the Canners League of California and the Northwest Canners Associationj the total movement from can- neries has been adjusted for exports to derive the movement to the domestic mar- ket. The index of United States nonagricultural income is based on reports issued by the United States Department of Commerce. At the time the analysis was made, nonagricultural income figures for the 1951-5? season were available only through April, 1952. Hence, in the nonagricultural income figures used for the marketing year 1951-52, it has been necessary to estimate the value for May 1952; it has been estimated at the average level of the preceding three months. The level of competing canned fruit prices has been measured by an index constructed in the same manner as in the previous reports on canned Bartlett pears; the construction of the index is explained in some detail in Table 3 appended to .ai£34' >:c»an£o io eaiiCj .cf.o.'i eill- ni; anrjyr+moo lo Esox^a Io xe' erii fix sinrno Of ■nr.rtsf^n A ^o) fits en b^'r.np -' ' ^ .., ,..■■!-,,,,.. ,L:ii?v£ saj ao sew ^Jxi^jyaoo hiari smooad. LGwdiuoii^Bcion riixw fens bauaai ajioqei no f>93«rf Si atnorin Cxfoxi^snon ssjsis bsctxnU lo x?bni fifT . iiiJnoiii i-vf>-iaJ gnxivjj^.xc trii x * a8V£»x a^s-xsYB ©ri^ be^Jt!(rxc^^9 (te&c 3. this report. The f.o.b. prices of canned apricots and canned clingstone peaches are based on reports from California canners and reflect actual operations of the packers. The prices for canned apricots were compiled by the Canners League of California, and the prices of canned clingstone peaches were compiled by the Cling Peach Advisory Board. The prices of canned Hawaiian pineapple are based on pub- lished quotations supplemented by available trade information. Specific sources for the several series of data used in the analysis, and more detailed specifications, are noted in the explanatory footnotes to Tables 1, 2 and 3 appended to this report. It should here be noted that the analysis this year for canned pears did not work out as satisfactorily as usual in the sense that the discrepancy between the actual and estimated prices of 195l~52 was larger than usual. Investigation of market conditions during 1951-52 suggests that the discrepancy may in large part be due to the special conditions prevailing that year. The pears canned appar- ently were of lower quality than in most years; choice quality made up a smaller proportion of the pack. The market, thus, was to a substantial extent depressed by this low-quality factor during the year, accounting in considerable part for the actual price in 1951-52 as compared with the estimated price for that year. ? -T ■> * q "I ; ; t Yd ••?wif?>d 3B duo ^ICH si {Cf TABLE 1 Statistical Analysis of Annual Average F.O.B. Prices of Pacific Coast Canned Pears (1926-2? Through 1951-52, Excluding I9UO-UI Through 19U6-U7) Year, June through May Pacific Coast f.o.b. price canned pears Domestic shipments of canned pears Index of j United States i nonagricultural i income 1 Adjusted index of prices of competing canned fruits 1 3 ^ U dollars per case 1,000 cases^/ 1935-1939 = 100 1926- 27 1927- 28 1928- 29 1929- 30 1930- 31 1931- 32 1932- 33 1933- 3U 193U-35 1935- 36 1936- 37 1937- 38 1938- 39 1939- UO U.3I U.60 U.13 3.53 2.82 2.ii8 2.6h 3.05 2.92 2.92 3.07 2.77 3.27 1,957 1,637 2,170 2,617 1,990 2,200 2,767 2,98U 2,670 ■3 OQ7 J) 77 I 2,681 3,11U 2,768 ! 115.3 116.2 120.7 121.2 106.7 86.9 68.5 Ih.h 81.5 90.0 106. U 103.3 102.1 109.6 126.5 110.6 107.9 128.2 111 0 112.1 122.6 129.6 133.6 113.6 97.7 109.9 92.3 90.9 19U7-U8 19I48-U9 19U9-50 1950- 51^/ 1951- 52-^ 7.07 7.37 5.15 6.90 6.li0 U,866 3,660 5,613 ii,8l5 U,35U 285.8 30h.h 305.0 3U9.2 377. U 62.8 62.5 53.8 55.2 53.5 1 J . a/ No. 2^ can basis. b/ Preliminary, subject to revision. Compiled from canner reports by Canners League of California and Northwest Canners Association. Prices are weighted average f.o.b. prices received by canners for all grades and sizes of cans. Column 7, table 2. Simple average of the pack-year monthly indexes of national income, excluding agricultural income, 1935-1939 average equals 100. Monthly income data compiled from U. S. Department of Commerce, Survey of Cur rent Business. Index for May 1952 estimated at average level of pre- ceding three months. For sources and method of construction, see Table 3. Sources: Col, 1: Col. 2: Col. 3: Col. ii: 1 x'i'^C' !■ ^ ' "0 rc-bnl lii J X "'Of! j 1 i 01' -T .i.o.l 1 1 r 1 . -> i— — ! 'i.VOX i s.asx 1 Q.iXI : f,5ii '^'^X 1 1 i i ^. i 5.ao I xe"a 1 t va. ■ ■ i 1 1 .si.'; 'if - foT TABLE 2 Pack, Carry-over, Shipments, and Exports of Pacific Coast Canned Pears, 1926-27 to 1951-52 Year, June through May Pack Carry-over from previous vear Available for shipment Carry-over into following year Total shipments Exports Domestic shipments 1 3 h 5 6 7 1,000 cases (2]4~No. 2^ basis) 1926- 27 1927- 26 1928- 29 1929- 30 3,260 2,639 ii,ll6 a, 206 507 iiOl 167 292 3,767 3,0U0 U,283 h,h9Q i;01 167 292 952 3,366 2,873 3,991 3,5U6 l,ii09 1,236 1,821 1,163 1,957 1,637 2,170 2,383 1930- 31 1931- 32 1932- 33 1933- 3ii 193U-35 /|,153 3,635 3,117 ii,377 5,505 952 893 870 ii29 273 5,105 i;,528 3,987 1;,806 5,778 893 870 k29 273 1,291 U,212 3,658 3,558 li,533 1,595 1,668 1,358 1,766 1,503 2,617 1,990 2,200 2,767 2,98U 1935- 36 1936- 37 1937- 38 1938- 39 1939- Uo ii,230 5,355 U,32l li,090 ii,057 1,291 957 850 1,150 hOO 5,521 6,312 5,171 5,2Uo ii,U57 957 850 1,150 Uoo 280 h,S6h 5,U62 ii,021 U,8U0 U,177 l,89l4 1,U65 1,3U0 1,726 1,U09 2,670 3,997 2,681 3, nil 2,768 19U7-U8 19U8-U9 19li9-50 1950- 51 1951- 52 5,622 3,831 5,U59 6,oU8 6,215 200 726 761 hhe 566 1. - 5,822 U,557 6,220 6,U96 6,781 726 761 566 1,575 5,096 3,796 5,772 5,930 5,206 230 136 159 215 95 h,866 3,660 5,613 , ii,8l5£/ Col. 1: Cols. 2 and hi a/ Excludes 900,5li9 cases in 1950-51 and 758,000 cases in 1951-52 purchased by U. S. Defense Department (Quartermaster Corps). If Quartermaster purchases were in- cluded, domestic shipments would amount to 5,715,000 cases in 1950-51 and 5,m»679 cases in 1951-52. Sources: Compiled from reports of Canners League of California and North- west Canners Association. Compiled from reports of Canners League of California and North- west Canners Association. Carry-overs for June 1, 1937, 1938, 1939, and I9U0 were estimated from incomplete data. California and Pacific Northwest carry-overs for June 1, 1926, 1927, 1928, 1929, and 1930 were converted from actual cases. Also, Pacific Northwest carry-over for June 1, 1932 was converted from actual cases. Calculated. Compiled from United States Department of Commerce, Monthly Summary of Foreign Commerce of the United States. Exports converted at kS pounds per No. 2§ equivalent case. April- May, 1952, exports estimated. Col. 7: Column 5 minus column 6. Cols. Col. 3 6: and 5: 7" ■ in ■■ t - •it. .J 1 1 0; . \ ■ ■ 1 1 t ... bed'xevoo- :3 aiT;oq?c& ^Sc^^i . TABLE 3 Construction of Index of Prices of Canned Fruits Competing With Canned Bartlett Pears Year, Jirne through May ""Canned clingstone peaches Prices Canned Canned apricots 1 pineapples^ 3 d ollars per case 1926-27 4.10 3.85 4.70 1927-28 3.45 3.97 4.. 20 1928-29 3.50 3.67 41.40 1929-30 4.57 3.97 -^.70 1930-31 3.20 3.32 4.00 1931-32 2.80 2. 64 3.00 1952-33 2.15 2.23 3.10 1933-34 2.49 2.37 3.60 1934-35 2.88 3.47 a. 60 1935-36 2.66 2.93 3.60 1936-37 2.79 2.75 3.60 1937-38 3.11 3.02 5.80 1938-39 2.44 2.55 3.40 1939-40 2.55 2.77 3.60 1947-48 4.78 5.20 6.10 1948-49 5.10 4.55 6.80 1949-50 4.07 4.11 6.40 1950-51 5.17 4.83 6.80 1951-525/ 5.53 1 5.29 5.80 a/ Preliminary, subject to revision. Canned clingstone peaches _ Relatives of prices Canned Canned Hawaiian apricots pinea pple 5 Unadjusted Adjusted index of Index of index of prices of United States prices of competing nonagricul- competing canned fruits tioral income canned fruits 7 r 8 9 1935-1939 = 100 159.3 Lot »o JLO'-J. o JLo4«U T AT P i»tX . C 128.5 ISJ^.O 130.9 122.2 150.2 ll ( ,t> 1 Al P X»LL. O 155 4 124.3 118.4 111.1 118.6 108.8 94.2 83.3 97.4 83.5 79.5 86.1 84.0 96.7 84.5 100.0 96.4 111.9 123.8 100.0 108.9 103.3 104.5 100.0 102.2 108.4 98.1 100.0 104.0 120.8 107.7 105. S 113.5 94,8 90.9 94.4 94.2 99.5 98.8 100.0 99.6 185.7 185.4 169.4 179.6 198.1 162.3 188.9 190.2 158.1 146.6 177.8 164.0 200. S 172.3 188.9 192.8 214.8 1 188.7 i 188.9 201.8 126 5 116 2 110. 6 120.7 107.9 121.2 128.2 106.7 111.2 86.9 112.1 68.5 122.6 74.4 129.6 81.5 133.6 90.0 113.6 106.4 97.7 103.3 109.9 102.1 92.3 109.6 90.9 285.8 62.8 504.4 52.5 305.0 53.8 349.2 55.2 377.4 53.5 (Continued on next page.) o 22*:} S*80 2*S0 Too'o J;- TOf'O jirc 2 S8S*2 108* R GO? 3 - ojji: .sruusq Table 3 continued. Sources Cols! 1 and 2: Compiled from reports by canners. Prices are v/eighted average f.o.b. prices of all grades and sizes of cans, Col. 3: Prices are for No. Zk sliced fancy pineapple, f.o.b. Hawaiian, from published quotations supple- mented by trade information. Cols. 4, 5 and 6: Prices given in columns 1, 2, and 3, respectively, in per cent of their 1935-1939 averages- canned clingstone peaches, 5^2.574; canned apricots, 1^2.804; canned pineapples, s?3.o0. Col 7- Weighted combination of relatives in columns 4, 5, and 6 using the following weights— canned clingstone peaches, 8; canned apricots, 2; canned pineapples, 6. Col. 8; From Table 1, column 3. Col. 9: Coltmin 7 divided by column 8, 3LOTT TABLE h Actual and Estimated F.O.B. Prices of Pacific Coast Canned Bartlett Pears, 1926-27 to 1951-52 Year, Difference: Column 3 June column 1 as per through Actual Estimated minus cent of May price price column 2 column 1 1 2 3 U dollars per case per cent 1926-27 li.31 U.62 -0.31 - 7.2 1927-28 U.60 h.36 0.2h 5.2 1928-29 U.13 U.29 -0.16 - 3.9 1929-30 U.82 h.lh 0.08 1.7 1930-31 3.53 3.68 -0.15 - U.2 1931-32 2.82 3.01 -0.19 - 0. ( 1932-33 2.J48 2.16 0.32 12.9 1933-3U 2.6U 2.51 0.13 14.9 193U-35 3.05 2.9h 0.11 3.6 1935-36 2.92 2.97 -0.05 - 1.7 1936-37 2.92 2.86 0.06 2.1 1937-38 3.07 3.ii8 -O.Ul -13. u 1938-39 2.77 2.8U -0.07 - 2.5 1939-Uo 3.27 3.23 O.Oli 1.2 19U7-U8 7.07 6.0U 1.03 IU.6 19U8-U9 7.37 6.71 0.66 9.0 19149-50 5.15 5.8U -0.69 -13. U 1950-51 6.90 6.7U 0.16 2.3 1951-52 6.U0 7.19 -0.79 -12.3 Sources: Col. 1: From Table 1, column 1. Col. 2: Estimated by equation 1, Table 5. Col. 3: Column 1 minus column 2. Col. hi Column 3 as per cent of column 1. 0.06 l&UtoX Z ru- : zuatm j bs>iBmi • . ' 1 I r ■■■ 'c -^ — 1 c I 1 1 - • f . . 1. . . -■ m a . J . \ ■ \- • V. t 1 1 i i r. amuloo .if TABLE 5 Statistical Analyses of Factors Affecting Annual Average F.O.B. Prices of Pacific Coast Canned Pears, 1926-2? to 1951-52 (Excluding 19^0-41 through 1946-4?) Equation number _____ — — — ■ ■ ~~ j Multiple regression equations R Adjusted coefficient of multiple correlation Dependent i variable Constant term Independent variables and their net regression coefficients (figures in parentheses are t-ratios and in brackets are beta coefficients) 1 Xl -l8.?63154 - o.334ooQXp + 10.114619 logioXn + 0.025187X4 (1.867882) (8.963348) (2.253838) [0.229158] [1.501245] [0.427586] 0.959 2 Xl -27.901712 - 1.504716 log,^X^ + 10.858949 logioXo + 7.200216 logj^oX^ (1.165306) (8.235614) ^ (2.652841) [0. 137245] [1.611721] [0.618115] 0.961 3 logXi - 2.896015 - 0.191208 log.fX, + 1.153983 logioXo + 0.860298 log^oX^ (2.033625) (12.020031) (4.353329) [0.180546] [1.773132] [0.764562] 0.978 Xt = annvial average f.o.b. price of Pacific Coast canned pears (in dollars per case); X2 = domestic shipments of Pacific Coast canned pears (in units of 1,000,000 cases); X3 = index of United States nonagri cultural income (1935-1939=100); Xi^ = adjusted index of prices of competing canned fruit (1935-1939=100) . NO I ' /■.', riS