) THE LIBRARY OF THE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES THE ART OF FALSE REASONING EXEMPLIFIED ; IN SOME EXTRACTS FROM THE REPORT OF SIR ROBERT PEEL'S SPEECPI IN " THE TIMES" PAPER OF JULY 7th, 1849. "Now most politicians in England !>hi>w, it is iviie, but little liking to tlie gospel; yet there is something in the people which can still inspire nuicli hope; and this is the power of religious feeling, and of Christian principle, so strong in T>nt&m."—I)'Aufngni"s Recollections of German;/, Knglund and Scotliintl. LONDON: OLLIVIER, 59, PALL MALL; AND EFFINGHAM WILSON, 11, ROYAL EXCHANGE. M.nccc.L. LONDON: PRINTED BY J. WUnTUKlMF.R AM) CO, CIRCUS PLACE, FINSBURY CincUS. DC 111 CONTENTS, CHAPTER I.— Section I. PAGE The origin of the art of false reasoning — Its improvement in modern times — The perfection of the art an indication of a nation's downfall ....--. 7 Section II. A specimen of the mode in which arguments, whether true or false, may be jucUciously commenced — How an argument commenced with great fairness may be conducted to a delusive conclusion, and made subservient to the commend- ation of the speaker's own policy — How false assumptions may be successfully used - - - - - - 1 Section III. The expediency of a delusive speaker laying down strict rules for the government of others and eluding them himself — The advantage of a positive denial being repeated in two or three different forms — The wisdom of repudiating government returns when adverse to the speaker's wishes — Fastidious notions of consistency to be avoided by any one who expects to excel as a delusive reasoner — Allusion to Alderman Waithman, and the danger of misusing the power of ridicule - -- - - . - - -14 3022382 IV CONTENTS. Chapter I. {^Continued) — Section IV. PAGE Another instance of the use of the jwsitive denial, and the advantage to be gained by accompanying it with an inver- sion of the right order of ccmse and effect. A digression concluding with a declamatory appeal to the superficial compassion of the audience very successfid - - - 1 8 Section V. Expediency, the only tribunal which the delusive reasoner should acknowledge — An illustration derived from the supposed case of a tailor and shoemaker, which shews the danger of a de- lusive reasoner attempting to address the common sense of common men in a common way — The difference between the reasoning of Dr. Adam Smith and Sir Robert Peel - 22 Section VI. The advantage of a long parliamentary experience — The dis- advantage to which a just cause may be exposed, if its advocates omit to trace to its 7-eal beginning the error they wish to expose — An argument true in itself may be made the means of leading others into error — Unjust for legislators to enjoy the honours and emoluments of legislation, unless they are prepared to take its responsibility - - - - 26 Section VII. The influential name of " Alexander Baring " (the late Lord Ashburton) attached to a London petition thirty years ago, skilfully impressed into the support of an opinion which is contradicted by the general tenor of his Lordship's subsequent public life — A brief sketch of the political circumstances which led to that petition - - - - - -31 Section VIII. Allow error sufficient latitude and it will work its own cure — The opinion of Lord Ashburton totally disregarded on another question, whereon, from his great practical expe- rience of the subject, it wag entitled to special attention - 36 CONTENTS. Chapter I. {Continued) — Section IX. PAGE A delusive argument may obtain considerable weight from a display of religious feeling ; but unless it be introduced with great discretion, it may expose the speaker to be suspected of madness, enthusiasm, or hypocrisy — To disclaim any pre- tension to the spirit of foresight may sometimes indicate the absence of a common-sense knowledge of cause and effect rather than the presence of modesty and humilitj - - 3S CHAPTER II.— Section I. Why the study of the art of false reasoning may be deserving of public attention. It is not expected that any one truly wise, wlU study it for the purpose of practising it — A know- ledge of its devices useful as a preservative against its deceptions — For practising the art succcssftilly several qualifications are necessary — For guarding against its delu- sions, a good common understanding and a sincere love of truth are the only qualifications which are requisite - - 44 Section II. Secondary considerations, the means of often diverting the public mind from objects of primary importance. Tlic mischief arising from this source illustrated by our own national experience -.-..----46 Section III. A remarkable instance of self-delusion which has been allowed to prevail in our national councils — The folly of Senators not saying Yes, or No, according to their own honest convic- tions — Mr. Cobdcn's speech at Sheffield — The popular orator, a powerful agent for good or for evil — Important that the working classes shoidd be on their guard against the delusions of the false reasoner — The popular orator in Parlia- ment and the popular orator out — Their relative influence in es- tablishing and pcr]>cluating some erroneous monetary notion^^ 41) Vi CONTENTS. Chapter II. {Continued) — Section IV. PAGE The use and abuse of the power of public speaking further illustrated by some brief remarks on the popular questions of "Cheap Bread;" "Free Trade;" "Protection;" and " Liberty, or the Right of Self-control" — Concluding remarks >_-._-. --54 THE ART OF FALSE REASONING EXEMPLIFIED. CHAPTER I.— Section I. The art of false reasoning is of great antiquity. It is nearly as old as the creation. We learn from the Bible, that it was first discovered and successfully made use of by the Angel of Deceit, when, in the apparent light of reason, he availed him- self of the serpent's ingenuity to seduce our first parents from their state of happiness to his own state of misery — from a state of peaceful enjoyment, the natural consequence of obedience to their Creator, to a state of misery, the never-failing result of disobedience. This art is very simple in itself, and may easily be acquired by any one who possesses an ordinary share of the actor's talent, and is endowed with a persuasive tongue and an unscrupulous conscience. The process, as set forth in the third chapter of the first book in the Bible, is very short and simple. A doubt as to the truth of God's word is first ingeniously suggested — " Yea, kalh God said, ye shall surely not eat of every tree of the gar- den?" T/ie7i the truth of that word is positively denied — " Ye shall not surely die. " And, lastly, the expediency of acting in opposition to the command of God is adroitly intro- duced into the argument of the arch deceiver, namelj'-, the beauty of the fruit, and its virtue to make ivise those that par- take of it, — " God doth know that in the day ye cat thereof, then your eyes shall be opened, and ye shall be as gods, knoAving good and evil." 8 FALSE REASONING EXEMPLIFIED. This kind of reasoning seldom fails to succeed with persons who are themselves imconscious of deceit, if they once begin to palter with the Truth, — if Error be allowed to insinuate the first doubt of the truthfulness of God's word. But to perfect the delusion, the plea in a false argument should not be altogether false — a little truth should be interwoven with it — truth so stated as to constitute a practical lie. In the case just stated, the Great Deceiver spoke truth when he told the woman, that after she had tasted the forbidden fruit her eyes would be opened to discern both good and evil — so it proved : hitherto Adam and herself had known only GoOD ; now, to their sor- row, they knew what Ea'IL was also. But in these latter days, the art of false reasoning has been greatly elaborated. The short strai2;ht-forward process adopted by the inventor of the science would scarcely answer the purposes to which it is now applied. The mischievous result which was then attained in a day, is now often made the work of years, requiring the support of many positive and reiterated denials of the truth for its completion. Sometimes we see one error established, and the supposed impossibility of uproot- ing it made the reason for engrafting upon it many others. At other times a dexterou.s trans|)Osition of the right order, of things — inverting the order of cause and effect, or, in other words, " putting the cart before the horse" — proves a very suc- cessfid method of thwarting the truth, and of preparing the way for the establishment of false conclusions. But when the truth to be opposed is so self-evidently true as to baffle every attempt to find a plausible argument against it, tlie Advocate of Error may even then possibly succeed by availing himself of the power of ridicule — the power of which is oftentimes the greater in its effect w^ow shallow-minded men, in proportion as the truth which it assails is grave and important. This may occasionally be seen when the sacred truths of scrijoture are made the subject of profane jokes. Eidicide may, howevt-r, be ITS IMPROVEMENT IN MODERN TIMES. 9 used with great effect in support of the truth as well as against it, as is evident in the conflict which the prophet Elijah had with the prophets of Baal. It is a powerful weapon for good or evil, just as the object to which it is made subservient is true or false. Then, again, the Advocate of Error may often obtain great temporary influence over the minds of that large multitude of people who are carried away by mere outward appearances, by the manner in which he addresses them. One class of these advocates will enlist the prejudices of the multitude on their side by sheer impudence, aiTogating to themselves a monopoly of wisdom, and imputing to all who are opposed to them a monopoly of ignorance and stupidity. The success of this class depends chiefly upon the readiness with which they can make use of superficial arguments, hard names, and rude speeches; and very successful they often are when addressing the multitude in opposition to those who are placed in the hio-her stations of life. Men of the same character of mind, but better provided with scholastic logic, succeed by another process. In advocating a bad cause, their forte is to intro- duce their case by assuming it to be unanswerably good; and, after expressing in many words and various ways their conviction that the truthfulness of their case will be made as clear as the sun at noon-day, they then diverge into a large mass of minor and unimportant particulars, until those whom thev wish to delude become sufficiently confused to lose sight of the main question : the main question being thus got rid of, the fluent orator has then little difllcidty in persuading his unreflecting hearers, that the case is almost as clear as he had declared he would ;;ror6' it to be. Another class succeed in making error wear the appearance of truth, by the solemnity with which they can advocate a fallacy, and the gravity with wliich they can give utterance to a few common-place remarks, winch liavc some trutli in ihcm. but whicli are quite 10 FALSE REASONING EXEMPLIFIED. delusive in the use to which they are applied by the speaker. And there is another class of delusive reasoners, whose chief power consists in the skill with which they can administer flattery, either in large or small doses, so as to suit the vanity of those whom they wish to delude. This is a power which requires to be used with great discretion — when applied too strongly it defeats its own object. These are some of the improvements in the art of false reasoning which have generally distinguished nations and individuals when they have attained a high state of civiliza- tion and a low state of moral rectitude — when national rulers can avow, without shame or public censure, that measures morally wrong may be politically right — when the publication of delusive reports is encouraged by those in power — when the ministers of the crown scruple not to avail themselves of those reports to deceive the people, and when the people are wilhng to be deceived — when wealth is more honoured than wisdom and virtue — when successful error is allowed to usurp the the honours which rightly belong to unobtrusive truth; and when, if we may judge from the past history of the world, a nation is ripe for its destruction. May God for ever avert this kind of civilization from Britain ! Section II. Though it is to be hoped, that Great Britain is very far from having attained that fearful pre-eminence in civilization which would establish it, not on the Kock of Christian Truth, but on its Ruins, yet every well-wisher to his cov;ntry must have seen, with much sorrow, that the art of false reasoning has been, of late years, too much patronized among us; that the people, and sometimes those who aspire to the grave character of legislators, have been so miich enamoured with the manner, style, and wit of aspeakcr, as to render them insensible to the delusive character A SPECIMEN OF FALSE REASONING. 11 of his arguments. Of this our parliamentary records aiFord many examples; but, without multiplying instances, it is pro- posed to take a few extracts from a single speech of one of the most distinguished members of the House of Commons, which, while they illustrate the skill and success of the speaker, will also show how very little a majority of his hearers must have availed themselves of the use of their own judgment and common sense, not to see the fallacy of tlie arguments ad- dressed to them. The speech here referred to, is Sir Robert Peel's, on the 6th of July, 1849; in reply to Mr. Disraeli's remarks on the general imbecility of the Queen's ministers; as it is reported in the Times paper of the 7th of July. In this speech, Sir Eobert, with great discretion and much effect, prefaces his observations by disclaiming the use of those aids that are derived from the arts of false reasoning. He denounces vague declamation, and proposes to subject the discussion to the plain, simple test of reason. According to the Times report, his words are, " In " examining the arguments of the Hon. Member for Bucking- " hamshire, I shall take that course which appears to me by far " the best, and the most likely to conduce to the elucidation of " the truth, namely, to state each argument separately, and " as nearly as I can in the words in which it was conveyed, and " then to give that which appears to me to be the answer to " such argument; and I cannot help thinking, that if that were " the course generally pursued in this House in the conduct of " these discussions, substituting the plain simple test of reason " for vague declamation, it would perhaps, upon the whole, " conduce more to the full elucidation of the matters with " which we have to deal." This very temperate appeal to the judgment of the House, is an admirable specimen of the way in which any argument, whether true or false, may be profitably commenced; and deli- vered, as it no doubt would be, in Sir Robert's most bland and 12 FALSE REASONING EXEMPLIFIED. courteous manner; it is very likely that this appeal was alone sufficient to convince many of his unsuspicious hearers, that they were quite safe in trusting their judgment to be led by a gentleman who could urge the propriety of submitting every question to the plain simple test of renson ; and who could so admirably caution others against the use of vague declamation. Having, by this modest appeal, possessed himself of the friendly attention of the unsuspicious portion of his audience, and being quite sure of the hearty support of those with whom he had co-operated in carrying the very measures which were the subject of Mr. Disraeli's censure, Sir Kobert then avails himself of the brief prosperity of 1845 and 1846 (which Mr. Disraeli had admitted) to assume that it was not produced by the Eailway mania, but by the Income Tax and Tariff, which he had himself introduced in the year 1842; in- sinuating at the same time, that the impoverished state of the Exchequer in 1841, was chiefly attributable to the blundering policy of those who had preceded him in the ministry. " I " find," says he, " that in the year ] S41 there was a deficit of " about £2,500,000. I find, that in the preceding year, 1840, " you had adopted the system of imposing additional duties " upon Imports, etc. ... I find, that that addition, so " placed upon Imports, had produced no corresponding aug- " mentation of the revenue (Cheers); but directly the reverse. " But," adds Sir Robert, " in 1842, you adopted a different " principle; you imposed an Income Tax, and you reduced " taxation upon all the great articles of subsistence (Hear ! and " Cheers). . .You imposed an Income Tax, by which £5,000,000 " were raised. You removed the prohibitions upon the import ' ' of Animals 'and Meat. You reduced the duties upon every " article which enters into the subsistence of the people. You '^ greatly reduced the protective duties upon Corn. You reduced " the duties upon 565 articles of Customs; and the result was " what the Hon. gentleman has represented to luive been the A SPECIMEN OF FALSE REASONING. 13 " state of this coantry in 1846 " (Cheers). Sir Robert then indulges himself in giving vent to this enthusiastic declamation, " Agriculturists looking forward with hope — Ireland in a state " of comparative prosperity — the greatest Export Trade that '* ever was known to take place — all this was, I won't say the '^ result of, but at least coincident with, that reformation of " your commercial system." Here we have an admirable specimen of a delusive argument. If it had been true that the deficit in the revenue, and the distress of 1841, arose from an increase of Import duties in 1840; if it had been true, that the temporary prosperity of 1845 and 1846 was the result of the removal of protective duties, and the imposition of the Income Tax — if it had been true that the continuance of these measures had continued to produce prosperity — if it had not been true, that the temporary prosperity of 1845 and 1846 arose and declined in exact harmony with the expenditure connected with the Railway mania; and if the hopes which Sir Robert tells us the Agri- culturists were indulging in 1846 had been since realized, or if the "greatest Export Trade ever known "(which he alleges to have taken place at that time), had not been attended with the greatest ruin to the mercantile men engaged in it that was ever experienced, then the argument would have been deser- ving of serious attention ; but scarcely any man having the right use of his eyes and his ears can fail to perceive, what many have grievously felt, that the assumptions involved in Sir Robert's argument, are all either unfounded, misplaced, or attributed to wrong causes; and yet, if we may judge from the cheers which he elicited, liis argument was as successful as he could wish it to be. Sir Robert must have executed this piece of delusive reasoning in a very masterly manner. In many other parts of his speech, he docs not trouble himself with the forms of a connected arguiiK'iit. Having got the favorable ear of the 14 FALSE REASONING EXEMPLIFIED. House, he merely gives, in many cases, a positive denial to tlie argument of his opponent, and reiterates his denial in two or three different forms ; but in this case there is a show of reasoning, and he very cleverly avails himself of this display to impress his good-natured hearers with a belief, that all his arguments will be conducted with as much pre- cision and truthfulness as if he were investigating a purely scientific question. Section III. Although Sir Robert, in the foregoing extract, manifests a very laudable desire that others should not avail themselves of the use of vague declamation; yet the concluding paragraph shews how much more easy it is to profess sound maxims, than to act upon them. There is more than ordinary wisdom in the clause commencing " All this was, I won't say," etc. This cautious qualification indicates great forethought. It provides a way by which, when expediency requires it, the speaker may take up the opposite side of the question. It is as if he had said, " I won't say that Tenterden Church-steeple is the cause of the Goodwin Sands ; but if you are foolish enough to think so, I won't be the man to undeceive you, at least for the present." In another part of the same speech, the Rt. Hon. Baronet says, " I come now to view the second ground on which the " Hon. gentleman impeached our commercial policy. I think " he said, the average official value of all Exports in 1845 " and 1846, was £133,000,000; and that the average declared " value in those two years, was £59,500,000: that in 1848, " the official value, which signified quantity, did not fall very " far short of the official value in 1845 and 1846; but that " the declared value in 1848" (which of course signifies price), " fell by £6,500,000; and amounted to only £53,000,000. " and the Hon. Gentleman drew this conclusion. — That the " working-classes had received £6,500,000 less in 1848 than " they did before." REPETITION OF POSITIVE DENIALS. 15 This is a very fair statement of jSIr. Disraeli's argument, and to any man of plain common sense and fair understanding, the soundness of the inference seems to be obvious. No man who works for his living can fail to perceive, that if he were to sell a given quantity of goods in one year for 59/. 10s., and in the next year he could only get 53/. for the same quantity of goods, being the aggregate quantity in both years of the goods he had to dispose of, that he would undoubtedly have 61. lOs. less money in the second year than he had in the former, wherewith to pay rent, taxes, debts, interest of money, or, in fiict, any money obligation to which he was liable. It is equally clear, that with the specific price of goods thus reduced about 12 per cent., the receiver of rent, taxes, interest of money, etc., would find the value of his money enhanced just in proportion as the products of the working-people were diminished in money value; and it requires only a very moderate share of the reasoning faculties to perceive, that if this be true in the case of an individual workman, where only pounds arc concerned, it is equally true of a nation of workmen where millions of pounds are involved in the transaction. This is the simple and natural inference, which it appears Mr. Disraeli haidrawn; and it is probable that few men besides Sir Robert Peel would have ventured to impugn it. But Sir Robert shows us how an argument, clear and conclusive as this is, may be successfully opposed. Having, as we have seen, stated the substance of Mr. Disraeli's case very fairly. Sir Robert at once meets it with a decided negative. " I totally deny," says he, "the inference which the honourable member drew " from that circumstance. I deny, because there wasa fallinor " off in X\\(i declared value of exports in 1848, as compared with " the average declared value of those of 1845 and 1846 to the " extent of 6,500,000/., that therefore the working classes " received in 1848, 6,500,000/. less for their labour, than they " obtained in 1845 and 1846." This bare assertion, it seems. IG FALSE REASONING EXEMPLIFIED. was received with cheers by his liearers, even before a single argument was adduced to substantiate it. Then he supports his first assertion with another, which elicited renewed cheers. " It would," he said, " be melancholy, indeed, if that were the case" (that the working classes had received six and a half millions less for their labour than in 1845 and 1846); "but," he adds, " my consolation is, that nothing of the kind has taken place;" and without troubling himself or the House to ascertain whether the working classes themselves enjoy the same consolation, he then supports his two previous assertions, by assuring the House that " nothing can be more fallacious than any inference drawn from a falling off in the declared value of manufactures exported." He then boldly repudiates the Government returns of exports and imports, and declares, that " owing to the manner in which the accounts are pre- pared, all arguments drawn from that source must be exceed- ingly fallacious;" and thus by indirectly charging the Govern- ment with the modern vice of " cooking'^ their accoimts, and the sin of giving currency to delusive reports, he gets rid of the fact — the important fact — upon which the argument depends, and upon which IVIr. Disraeli was fairly entitled to rest it, and rest it with success, if bold assertions had not been allowed to usurp the place of the " plain simple test of reason." Here we have an instance of the success with which two or three bare denials may be used where the speaker has obtained the favourable prejudices of his audience, and where a majority of his hearers would feel their own policy condemned, if the original argument were suffered to pass without contradiction. It is, however, very important to any one who has frequent occasion to avail himself of the arts of delusive reasoning, that he should not encumber himself with any fastidious notions about consistency. It would only have embarrassed Sir Robert if, in the foregoing case, he had recollected how often the supposed tnithfulness of these Government reports had enabled FASTIDIOUS CONSISTENCY TO BE UNHEEDED. 17 him to carry some favourite project; or, when carried, and proved defective, to screen it from parliamentary censure ; and, even in the present instance, we may see that he could not have taken the next step in his argument, if he had not acquired the habit of holding his convictions with very great laxity: for though he denies that the working classes had received 6,500,000/. less for their labour in 1848 than in 1845 and 1846, and admits that it would be melancholy, indeed, if it were true, he immediately afterwards admits, that the working classes have, for more than thirty years, been receiving less and less for their labour, and that they now actually receive, on an average, only the same quantity of money for four hundred pieces of manufactured goods, which they would have obtained for one hundred pieces in 1815. He tells his audience, that the working classes have by their skill and industry multiplied the fruits of their lahoMr four-fold since 1815: but why the moneyed classes have not proportion- ately increased the quantity of money to represent those goods he does not explain ; or why the most stringent measures have been enacted to prevent money increasing in an equal proportion with the increase of commodities : although to any man of the least reflection it must be obvious, that if com- modities be increased fourfold, while the money to represent them is not increased, the exchangeable value of the money will increase fourfold, the money value of the goods being proportionately decreased, and that thus the moneyed class may actually obtain by their ingenuihj the lion's share of those increased fruits which the working class produce by their labour. There is no man upon whom the public have greater claims for rectifying this injustice than upon Sir Robert Peel, but there is no one more skilful than he in steering clear of dis- agreeable truths; and, in this case, availing himself of an allusion to the views of the late Alderman Waithman, he suc- ceeds in showing how truths which would stand " the plain c 18 FALSE REASONING EXEMPLIFIED. simple test of reason," may, for the occasion, be neutralised by the force of ridicule. Alderman Waithman, like Sir Robert Peel's father, had sense enough to foresee that cheap labour, arising in this manner from dear money, must ultimately bring upon the working classes of this nation those sufferings which they now experience; and though the consciousness of those sufferings may for a time be removed from the minds of the rich members of the House of Commons hy a joke, yet the recent experience of France shows that the oppression of the working classes is a dangerous subject to joke upon. The reckless and exasperated power of a Sampson was no doubt very droll in the eyes of his tormentors, until it was so applied as suddenly to involve the oppressed and the oppressors in one common destruction. Section IV. The same speech affords another specimen of the success with which two or three positive and reiterated denials may be used, for getting rid of an argument which would baffle the opposition of those who confine themselves to the means which the simple test of reason would sanction. Sir Eobert, having quoted Lord Stanley's remarks on the necessity of protection for domestic industry^ says, " The same doctrine as propounded " by the Hon. Member for Buckinghamshire, is, that we have " established a new commercial system which mistakes the " principle upon which a profitable exchange can take place " between nations;" and, that these protectionists tell us, "We " can only encounter the hostile tariff of foreign countries by " countervailing duties: that such a system occasions not scar- " city and dearness, but cheapness and abundance," etc " That" says Sir Robert, " / utterly deny. But," he adds, " I come now to the merits of the doctrine itself I boldly " maintain that the principle of protection to domestic industry, " meaning thereby legislative encouragement for the purposes '• of protection, not for revenue, is a vicious principle. I deny PUTTING AN EFFECT FOR A CAUSE. 19 " the Hon. Gentleman's assumption that you cannot fight " hostile tariffs by free imports. I so totally differ on that " point, that I maintain that your true policy is to compete " with hostile tariffs by free imports (Loud cheers). I deny " that you ought to return to protection as a principle; and I " say that the wider you extend your principle of protection, " the greater injury you will inflict on the national wealth and *' on the interests of the people (Cheers). Surely," continues he, *' the capital of the country is a fund from which the industry " of the country must be maintained — surely the industry of " the country must be promoted in proportion to the capital " which can be employed in its manufactures — surely the *' augmentation of capital as our population increases must " depend on the saving of annual revenue (Cheers)." The declamatory character of these remarks of Sir Kobert again show, that it is not necessary for a popular orator to practise the rules which he prescribes for the use of others, and the ready cheers with which the former portion of them was received, is a further evidence of the success which may attend a succession of bare assertions, if delivered with great confidence ; while the latter portion is illustrative of the advan- tage which a delusive argument may gain by changing the natural order of things, so that an effect may seem to take precedence of the cause from which it really emanates. If Sir Robert's /<2//