UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURE AGRICULTURAL EXPERIMENT STATION BERKELEY, CALIFORNIA SERIES ON CALIFORNIA CROPS AND PRICES BARLEY E. W. BRAUN BULLETIN 512 APRIL, 1931 CONTRIBUTION FROM THE GIANNINI FOUNDATION OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA PRINTING OFFICE BERKELEY, CALIFORNIA CONTENTS PAGE Summary 3 The general situation 6 Trend of barley production in California 6 Distribution of barley production in California 6 Disposition of barley in California 8 Barley exports from California 9 Trend of barley exports by water from California 9 Exports by countries of destination 9 Seasonal exports from California 10 World barley competition in the United Kingdom 10 Barley prices 13 Factors affecting barley prices at San Francisco 13 Price of export barley 16 Seasonal movement of barley prices 19 Trend of world barley production by principal countries 20 Acknowledgments 23 Appendix of tables 24 BARLEY 1 E. W. BRAUN2 SUMMARY The California barley industry is directly affected (1) by changes in the supply of barley, (2) by the demand for barley as a feed, and (3) by the demand for export barley used primarily for malting purposes. Barley enters into international trade from many parts of the world. The principal centers of production are north central United States, southern Russia, central Europe, Canada, British India, northern Africa, southern Spain, Chile, and California. Feeding and malting are the principal uses for barley. The malt- ing trade requires a thin-skinned barley that is bright, plump, and mellow, a combination of characteristics that is difficult to attain. Because California is one of the principal sources of high-grade malt- ing barley, the malting trade of the United Kingdom imports large quantities of barley from California. Barley production in California reached its height during 1910- 1914 with an average of 980,000 tons; during the five years 1926-1929 it averaged 740,000 tons. Although barley is grown widely throughout the state, the principal districts are the Sacramento Valley, the San Joaquin Valley, the south central coast counties of Monterey, San Luis Obispo, and Santa Barbara and the southern counties. The total barley tonnage in California is not likely to change materially for several years, provided there is no great change in the quantity exported. Common Coast, Tennessee Winter, Club Mariout, and Atlas are the varieties most common in the state. Atlas is relatively new and is gaining appreciably in importance because of its high yields and good quality. Before the War California barley exports by water amounted to only 130,000 tons, or 16 per cent of the total barley production of the state. Since 1920 California has exported by water between one- third and one-half of its production; the average during 1926-1929 1 Paper No. 17. The Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics. 2 Extension Specialist in Agricultural Economics and Associate on the Giannini Foundation. 4 University of California — Experiment Station amounted to 250,000 tons, or 34.5 per cent of the average production. Of this, 218,000 tons, or 87 per cent, went to the United Kingdom, the remaining 32,000 tons, or 13 per cent, was taken by other countries. On the average 66 per cent of the California exports are shipped during the six months July-December. August is the month of heaviest shipments and April tends to be the month of lightest shipments. In Europe, particularly in the United Kingdom, California barley comes in direct competition with barley from many other countries. The principal competition since 1920 has been from Canada, Russia, western Asia, Chile, and northern Africa. During 1926-1929 these countries furnished 46 per cent of the import supplies of the United Kingdom, whereas California, the principal single source, furnished 28 per cent of the import supplies. A large proportion of the barley from certain other countries is used only as feed. Information as to the quantity is not available. However, prices of feed barley and malting barley tend to go up and down together, even though the price of malting barley is considerably above the price of feed barley. Imports from Canada into the United Kingdom are not likely to increase materially in the near future because climatic conditions in Canada are not favorable to the production of high-quality malting barley. The keenest competition in the near future is likely to come from Russia. World barley production has expanded at an unusual rate since 1920. For 1920-1922 the average production, exclusive of China, was 1,436,000,000 bushels, and for 1927-1929 it was 1,896,000,000 bushels, which is an increase equivalent to 4.5 per cent a year. A considerable amount of this increase is in the nature of a recovery from the curtail- ment of production which took place in Europe between 1914 and 1919. During the next few years the trend of world barley produc- tion is most likely to be determined by the combined production of the United States, Russia, and Canada. In the United States produc- tion will probably be irregular, but in Russia and Canada production will probably increase. The year-to-year changes in the price of California barley are primarily the result of the operation of four factors : the size of the California barley crop, the supply of concentrate feeds in the United States, the demand for barley as a feed, and the demand for barley for export. Before and during the War the price of barley at San Francisco averaged lower than the Minneapolis price. Since the War the level of the price of feed barley at San Francisco has been above the price of feed barley at Minneapolis. This arises from the fact that Bul. 512] Barley 5 California does not produce enough grain to meet its feeding require- ments and export demand. We must, therefore, draw on outside sources for feed grains. There is no uniform seasonal movement of barley prices in Cali- fornia. During five of the nine seasons 1921-1929 the trend of prices during the season was upward, and during four of the seasons the price during the spring months was below those of midwinter. Usually there is a rise in prices from autumn to the end of winter; then if climatic conditions are favorable and point to a large yield for the coming season, prices fall during the spring months ; but if conditions point to low yields for the coming year, prices during the spring months tend to continue upward. Barley prices during the next five years cannot be expected to average as high as they have during the ten years 1921-1930, because production in Russia is likely to expand very rapidly until the pre- war level or even a higher level has been reached, provided govern- mental stability is maintained. The United States is the only important barley-producing country in which the upward trend of production appears to have been checked. Should Russia again regain the barley trade with the United Kingdom that it possessed before the War, California barley prices would probably be materially lower because exports from California would probably be less. Should California exports decrease to such an extent that domestic supplies would be more than enough to meet the requirements for barley as feed, it is very probable that the San Francisco price would again go below barley prices in eastern terminal markets of the United States. University of California — Experiment Station THE GENERAL SITUATION Barley is produced on a commercial basis in many parts of the world, and like wheat it enters into international trade, but on a much less extensive scale. The principal centers of production are north central United States, southern Eussia, central Europe, Canada, British India, northern Africa, southern Spain, Chile, and California. Because barley has a relatively short growing season, it does well in high latitudes where summers are short and in semi-arid regions where the rainy season is of short duration. It is produced principally for feeding and for malting; to a minor extent it is used for human con- sumption. Among the feeds barley competes most directly with corn in the feeding of swine, dairy cattle, and poultry. The brewing and distilling trades require malt made from thin-skinned, bright, plump, and mellow barley, a combination of qualities not readily attained. California is one of the principal sources of high-grade malting barley, and it is for this reason that the United Kingdom draws heavily upon California for its supply. The California barley industry is, therefore, directly affected by changes in the demand for barley as a feed and changes in the demand for export barley, which is used almost wholly for malting. TREND OF BARLEY PRODUCTION IN CALIFORNIA Barley production in California, as is shown in figure 1, expanded rapidly until 1910. Since then production has declined to a level comparable to that of 1901-1909. In 1910 California produced 46.5 million bushels, or slightly more than one million tons. In recent years California barley production has fluctuated between 700,000 and 800,000 tons, the 1926-1930 average being 740,000 tons. The harvest of 1924 was only 400,000 tons, a tonnage abnormally low because of the unusually short rainfall for the growing season of 1923-24. At present there are no influences apparent that indicate the likelihood of a material change in the volume of barley production in California for several years. DISTRIBUTION OF BARLEY PRODUCTION IN CALIFORNIA Barley is widely grown in California. There are, however, three fairly distinct regions : first, the Sacramento Valley ; second, the San Joaquin Valley; third, the three coast counties of Monterey, San Btjl. 512] Barley Luis Obispo, and Santa Barbara. The extreme southern counties of Imperial and San Diego also produce barley on a commercial scale. The Sacramento Valley ranks ahead of the other regions in both quantity and quality, its production being slightly more than 50 per cent of the total barley tonnage of the state. The export trade offers an outlet for a large proportion of the barley from the Sacramento Valley because in general the barley from this section is mellower than that from other sections of the state. The San Joaquin Valley produces about 33 per cent of the total tonnage ; of this only a small percentage is exported. The major portion finds a market locally and Barley Production in California, 1885-1930 40 30 * — \ 1 TREND OF PRODUCTION ""X^ A * i Y \ >» %< /l / / 1/ PRODUCTION S 1 -•""l / \ f 1 1 1 1 20 J*+- 960 720 •" Q Z < D O 480 J 240 1885 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 Fig. 1. — Barley production in California reached its peak in 1910, at which time it was the principal barley-producing state in the Union. In recent years California barley production has fluctuated between 700,000 and 800,000 tons. Data from table 6. in the Los Angeles area for feed. The south central coast counties produce about 7 per cent of the total tonnage of the state and like the barley grown in the San Joaquin Valley, some goes for export, but most of it is shipped to feed markets. The southern counties produce entirely for the feed market. The rabbit industry, which has developed rather rapidly in recent years, particularly in the southern part of the state, provides a new feed market for barley not formerly existing. Common Coast, Tennessee Winter, Club Mariout, and Atlas are the principal varieties grown in the state. Atlas is a pure strain derived from Common Coast and is gaining appreciably in importance because of its high yields and good quality. University of California — Experiment Station DISPOSITION OF BARLEY IN CALIFORNIA California produces more barley than is used in the state. A small quantity of feed barley is, nevertheless, brought in from the eastern states. The total available supply and the disposition are given in table 1, covering the three crops of 1927-1929. The average produc- tion was 708,000 tons. A little over 12,000 tons was brought into Los Angeles 3 from outside of the state. Thus a total of 720,200 tons was available for disposal. Of this supply 237,000 tons, or 33 per cent, TABLE 1 Barley Disposition in California Three-year average 1927-1929 Supply: 1,000 tons 708 12 2 720.2 237.0 45.0 438.2 7202 per cent 98 2 Total supply* Disposition: 3. Exported 100 33 6 61 Total 100 *Carryover may be disregarded in an average of several years. Sources of data: 1. From table 6. 2. Los Angeles receipts from other states, such data not avail- able for other California markets. 3. From table 7. 4. Weighted average rate of seeding applied to acreage har- vested in 1928, 1929, and 1930, allowing 5 per cent for hay and abandonment. 5. Total supply minus exports and seed. (The quantity used for rodent control and for human consumption is included in this item.) went into export trade; 438,200 tons, or 61 per cent, was used for feed ; and 45,000 tons, or 6 per cent, was used for seed. The quantity indicated under the feed item includes that used for rodent control and that processed for human consumption. The amount used as feed for livestock was probably about 400,000 tons. 3 Data for other centers are not available. Bul. 512] Barley BARLEY EXPORTS FROM CALIFORNIA Trend of Barley Exports by Water from California. — Since the World War annual barley exports from California by water have averaged about twice as much as they did before the War, as may be noted from table 2. During 1921-1925 California exported by water an average of 314,000 tons, or 44.6 per cent of its barley production, and during 1926-1930 an average of 250,000 tons, or 34.5 per cent of production ; whereas before the War water exports amounted to less than 20 per cent of the production of barley in the state. Before the War considerable quantities of California barley moved eastward by rail, a large part of which was used for malting. Data giving rail movement of barley from California for pre-war and post-war periods are not at hand. Certain interests in the barley trade estimate that the movement of California barley east by rail prior to the War varied between 120,000 and 350,000 tons a year, according to conditions. TABLE 2 California Barley Production- and Exports since 1900 by Five-year Averages Five-year periods Production Exports* Per cent exported 1901-1905 1,000 tons 690 825 946 795 703 726 1,000 tons 133 130 155 87 314 250 19 1906-1910 15.7 1911-1915 16 4 1916-1920 10 9 1921-1925 44.6 1926-1929 34.5 *Based on crop years July-June. Sources of data: tables 6 and 7. Sometimes it is held that water exports of barley from California have increased because the rail movement east has been stopped as a result of prohibition. It is entirely possible that prohibition was a factor. However, it is more likely that changes in the international barley trade occasioned by the War exerted the major influence in bringing about the increase of barley exports by water from Cali- fornia. The level of prices and the fact that barley is not exported on consignment substantiate the latter view. Exports by Countries of Destination. — The United Kingdom, certain continental European countries, and Canada import barley in considerable quantity from the United States. Barley exports to the 10 University of California — Experiment Station United Kingdom are mostly from California, whereas exports to continental Europe and to Canada are from barley grown in the north central states. During the period 1926-1930 an average of 218,000 tons, or 87 per cent of the barley exported from California, went to the United Kingdom, as is shown in figure 2. Only 27,000 tons, or 11 per cent, went to other European countries. The exports of barley from the north central states to Canada, which averaged 268,000 tons, are significant in view of the Canadian import tariff of 32 cents a hundred on barley during this period. It may be concluded, therefore, that the barley exported to Canada was used for malting purposes, inasmuch as Canadian production aver- aged over 2,000,000 tons annually during this period. This tends to show that barley grown in Canada is not satisfactory for malting purposes and is, therefore, not a factor in competition with California barley in United Kingdom markets. Seasonal Exports from California. — California exports barley during each month of the year ; the heaviest shipments, however, occur during the six months July to December. Figure 3, based on the five-year period 1925-26 to 1929-30, represents the average seasonal movement. On the basis of this average, 66 per cent of the exports are shipped during the first six months of a crop year beginning with July and 33 per cent are shipped during the last six months. Normally the heaviest shipments occur in August ; April tends to be the month of lightest shipments. Exports during the latter part of the crop year, particularly in June, are in part new barley. There is a greater tendency for exports to vary from normal during December to June than during July to November. WORLD BARLEY COMPETITION IN THE UNITED KINGDOM United Kingdom malting markets draw their supply of barley from practically every part of the world. The average quantity received from the different countries during 1925-1928 is illustrated in figure 4, and a comparison with pre-war imports is given in table 3. California, Canada, Russia, and western Asia are the principal foreign sources of supply. In reecnt years California furnished more than twice as much as any other single source, thus holding the position held by Russia before the War. Much of the barley entering England is, of course, used for feed. The better malting barleys come from California, south central Europe, northern Africa, and Chile. Barley production in the British Isles has fluctuated above and below an average of 1,400,000 tons for many years. Bitl. 512] Barley 11 Barley Exports from California and Total United States Exports by Countries of Destination, Average 1926-27 to 1929-30 U.S CALIF IOOO TONS UNITED KINGDOM 248 218 OTHER EUROPEAN 264 27 CANADA 268 ALL OTHERS 13 5_ TOTAL 793 250 THOUSAND TONS 100 150 200 250 CALIFORNIA UNITED STATES Fig. 2. — The United Kingdom is the principal foreign market for California export barley. Barley exports from other sections of the United States are shipped to Continental Europe and to Canada. Data from tables 9 and 10. Barley Exports from San Francisco by Months, Average 1925-26 to 1929-30 JUL AUG- SEP- OCT NOV- DEC- JAN. FEB. MAR- APR. MAY- JUN- Fig. 3. — In an average season, 66 per cent of California barley exports are shipped during the six months July-December. Data from table 8. 12 University of California — Experiment Station United Kingdom Barley Imports by Countries of Origin, Average 1925-1928 250 300 1000 TONS UNITED STATES 273 CANADA 1 1 1 RUSSIA 103 W. ASIA 75 CHILE 43 N. AFRICA 35 ROUMANIA 29 BRITISH INDIA 21 AUSTRALIA 13 OTHERS 91 TOTAL 794 50 T THOUSAND TONS 100 150 200 &S83 CALIFORNIA Fig. 4. — California furnishes 35 per cent of the total barley imports into the United Kingdom. Data from table 3. TABLE 3 United Kingdom Barley Imports by Countries of Origin Country Average 1910-14 Average 1925-28 tons* 347,723 178,893 146,413 119,819 110,291 59,194 48,660 27,716 22,164 75,215 per cent 30.6 15.7 12 9 10 6 9.7 5.2 4.3 2 4 2 6.6 tons* 102,748 272,942 20,995 28,525 75,164 111,114 35,287 per cent 12.9 34.4 2.6 3.6 9.5 14.0 4 4 Chile 43,036 104,595 5.4 13.2 Total 1,136,093 100.0 794,406 100.0 * British hundredweights of 112 pounds converted to tons of 2,000 pounds, t From California 1910-14, 80,000 tons; 1925-29, 218,000 tons. JPersia, Turkey, and Irak. 5 Algeria, Tunis, Morocco. Data for the year 1929 have become available since this study was prepared. Total imports for 1929 were 671 ,236 tons, from the United States 243,708 tons; India 2,611 tons; Roumania 82,904 tons; Western Asia 91,487 tons; Canada 77,183 tons; Northern Africa 73,350 tons; and Chile 26,508 tons. Source of data: Annual Statement of the Trade of the United Kingdom with Foreign Coun- tries and British Possessions. Vol. 2. Customs and Excise Department, London. Annual numbers. Bud. 512] Barley 13 BARLEY PRICES Factors Affecting Barley Prices at San Francisco. — Almost without exception the year-to-year changes in the price of feed barley at San Francisco correspond with the year-to-year changes in the price of barley at Minneapolis, as is shown in figure 5. In both markets prices in recent years have reached levels comparable to those prevailing prior to the War. The price at San Francisco since the War has, however, been rather uniformly above the Minneapolis price. Repre- sentative average prices for the two markets, as given in table 4, indicate briefly what has occurred. It will be noted that before and during the War San Francisco tended to be below Minneapolis. Prices of Feed Barney at San Francisco and No. 2 Barley at Minneapolis 3 50 - a 3 2.50 2-00 — 1-50 1.00 1910-11 1915-16 1920-21 1925-26 1930-31 Fig. 5. — In general the price of barley at San Francisco moves in the same direction as the price of barley at Minneapolis. Since 1918 the San Francisco price has averaged above the Minneapolis price. Data from tables 11 and 12. There are two principal reasons for the relatively higher level of the San Francisco price since the War. As already indicated exports of barley by water have been more than twice as much as they were before the War. There has also been an increase in the amount required for feed barley in California for dairy cows and poultry, which have increased on an average 12,000 and 500,000 head, respec- tively, annually since 1920. In 1925 and 1926 the price of barley in California went relatively low because of a decided falling-off of feed requirements in 1925,-due 14 University of California — Experiment Station to the reduced numbers of livestock as a result of the foot-and-mouth disease. According to the California State Department of Agriculture 109,855 animals were killed during the summer of 1924 and early part of 1925. Partially as a result of the reduced feeding require- ments occasioned by the reduction in the number of livestock, over 130,000 tons, or 17 per cent of the 1925 barley production, was carried over into 1926, in spite of increased exports in 1925. Ordinarily only 5 per cent of the crop is carried over. The heavy carry over from the 1925 crop, together with increased freight rates to the United Kingdom, depressed the local price in 1926. Since 1927 the position of the San Francisco price relative to the Minneapolis price has again been as it was before 1925. Small quantities of barley come from the Middle West into California, when the price spread is sufficiently favorable, which tends to keep the California markets in line with the mid-western markets. TABLE 4 The Price of Feed Barley at San Francisco Compared with the Price of No. 2 Barley at Minneapolis, by Representative Average Periods : in Dollars per Hundred Pounds Average period* Feed barley San Francisco No. 2 Minneapolis San Francisco above or below Minneapolis 1910-1914 dollars 1 33 2 55 1 55 1 48 dollars 1 37 2.63 1.37 1.36 dollars - 04 1916-1919 -.12 1921-1925 + 18 1926-1930 + 12 * June-May crop years for San Francisco and July-June for Minneapolis. Source of data: San Francisco from table 11. Minneapolis from table 12. The price of barley in California, is also affected by the price of corn in the eastern markets. California buys corn in quantity from the Middle West to supplement local feeds. In fact, corn receipts at Los Angeles, as given in table 5, exceed by a margin of about 1,200 cars the receipts of barley. Because corn and barley compete in feed- ing, particularly in the feeding of dairy cows and poultry, the price of one is influenced by the price of the other. The extent to which the average annual price of barley since 1910 at San Francisco has moved as did the price of corn at Chicago since 1910 is shown in figure 6. It will be noted that the movements of the two curves are very similar. The scales of the charts are so arranged as to place the Bui,. 512] Barley 15 two on a comparable nutritive-value basis. It should be remembered, however, that the price of corn in California has averaged 40 cents a hundred above Chicago for the past five years. Recent changes in freight rates may reduce this slightly. TABLE 5 Beceipts of Corn and Barley at Los Ange;les Year June-May Corn Barley 1923-24 cars 1,557 1,775 2,474 2,969 3,281 2,891 3,198 cars 1,661 1924-25 1,454 1925-26 2,290 1926-27 2,497 1927-28 1,745 1928-29 1,868 1929-30 2,095 Source of data: Compiled from reports of The Los Angeles Grain Exchange. Prices of Feed Barley at San Francisco and Corn at Chicago, 1910-1930 1910-11 1915-16 1920-21 1925-26 1930-31 Fig. 6. — Corn shipped into California from eastern states competes directly with barley in the feeding of dairy cows and poultry; the price of corn, there- fore, has some influence upon the price of barley. The scales of the above chart are arranged in such a manner as to put barley and corn on a comparable nutritive-value basis. To make such comparison directly, however, it is neces- sary first to adjust the Chicago price for freight and handling charges. Data from tables 11 and 20. The price of corn at Chicago is determined primarily by three factors: the supply of corn including carryover, the number of hogs on farms, and the general price level. The War period and the present depression which began in 1929, clearly illustrate the effect of 16 University of California — Experiment Station major changes in the general price level. The high price of 1924 best demonstrated the result of a change in the supply of corn. The high price in 1927, when the supply of corn was the same as the previous year, reflected the increased demand arising from an increase in the number of hogs on farms. Prices of California Barley at San Francisco, ani> at Hull, England, 1921-1930 4.00 5 3.00 2 8 2.00 § 1.00 1 1 CALIFORNIA BARLEY IN ENGLAND ^ U »V . — — "* , 1 / / / \ \ \ ' /s. r^£ r\—»* ►. — —.4 \ 5/ \H FRAN SHIPPIh CISCO J G SAN FRANCISCO / FEED ^ (\J <•> * iO 10 K 00 8 o (M M Ol OJ (M OJ 0| 01 «n 0> 01 0» o> o> 01 01 01 0> 0) Fig. 7. — The price of California barley in England moves very closely with the price of barley at San Francisco. Data from tables 11, 13, and 14. The price of barley for the 1929-30 and 1930-31 seasons was also materially affected by the large quantities of wheat available at prices stimulating to its use as feed. Whether or not the price of wheat will continue to be an important factor cannot be determined at present. A situation such as the present has not occurred often in the past. Price of Export Barley. — As already explained, the increased foreign demand for California malting barley apparently has had some influence upon the price level of both feed and malting barley in California. The year-to-year changes in the price of California barley in England, however, also have an effect upon the quantity taken by England from California for malting purposes. Btjl. 512] Barley 17 The average annual price of California barley at Hull, England, as shown in figure 7, moves very uniformly with, although consider- ably above, the price of shipping barley at San Francisco. Over the ten-year period 1921-1930 the price at Hull, England, averaged $2.37 a hundred pounds, whereas the price of shipping barley at San Francisco averaged $1.69 a hundred pounds. Prices of California and English Barley at Hull, England, 1921-1930 4.00 'cm CM CM iO CM «0 CM s tn fM 0> (M CM 0> CM 0> cm CM CM 0) 00 CM S5 o cr> Fig. 8. — California malting barley sells generally for a higher price than English malting barley in England. Data from tables 14 and 15. California barley tends to sell for higher prices in England than does barley grown in England, as is illustrated in figure 8. English malting barley averaged $2.16 a hundred at Hull, England, during 1921-1930, whereas California barley averaged $2.37 a hundred. This indicates that the quality of California barley is superior to English barley for malting purposes. A comparison of figures 7 and 8 demon- strates that the price of California barley in England is more closely related to the price of feed barley at San Francisco than it is to the price of English malting barley. A comparison of the price of California barley in England and California exports to the United Kingdom expressed as a percentage of total United Kingdom barley imports, as illustrated in figure 9, 18 University of California — Experiment Station suggests the conclusion that when the price of California barley is high, the British importers noticeably curtail their purchases of California barley and increase their purchases from other countries. For example, when the price of California barley at Hull, England, went above $3.00 a hundred pounds in 1924-25 as compared to $2.14 the year before, imports from California amounted to only 16 per cent of the total imports as compared to 22 per cent for the previous year. Relation Between the Price of California Barley in England and the Proportion of Total United Kingdom Barley Imports Coming from California S 350 a. a 3 3.00 £2.50 < 2 00 > -J O 1.50 40 I- 30 Z Ld ° 20 K td Q. PRICE OF CALIFORNIA BARLEY AT HULL. ENGLAND 10 V BARLEY FROM CALIFORNIA IN PER CENT OF TOTAL BRITISH IMPORTS Fig. 9. Data from tables 9, 14, and 17. Likewise, in 1927-28, with the price averaging $2.90 a hundred as compared with $2.33 in 1926-27, imports from California fell from 32 per cent to 22 per cent of total imports. It is, however, also possible to conclude that when the supply of barley in California suitable for export is relatively small the price is bid unusually high by the British importers. To measure definitely the factors which have determined the quantities of California barley imported into the United Kingdom is beyond the scope of this study. Bul. 512] Barley 19 Seasonal Movement of Barley Prices. — Barley prices in California do not follow a uniform seasonal movement like the volume of exports. During each of the nine crop years beginning' with 1921, the price of feed barley at San Francisco in general followed one of two types of seasonal movements — one type characterized by a rather regular rise throughout the season, and the other by a severe break in prices during either the late summer or early spring months. The seasons 1921-22, 1922-23, 1923-24, 1926-27, and 1928-29 are shown in figure 10. For these years the average March-May price was 27 cents a Seasonal Barley Prices, Group I JUN. JUL. AUG. SEP. OCT. NOV. DEC. JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY Fig. 10. — Barley prices at San Francisco tend to advance during the winter months, and if weather conditions are not favorable for high yields in the coming harvest, prices continue to rise during the spring months. Data from table 13. hundred above the average June-August (previous) price. The group characterized by the drop in price during the latter part of the season is shown in figure 11. The seasons are 1924-25, 1925-26, 1927-28, and 1929-30, in which the March-May prices averaged 32 cents a hundred under the December-January (previous) prices. In general, prices during the season tend to rise from autumn to the end of winter ; and then, if climatic conditions point toward the likelihood of high yields for the coming crop, prices during the spring 20 University of California — Experiment Station months sag; but if conditions point to the likelihood of decreased yields for the coming crop, prices continue to rise during the spring months. The depression which began in the late summer of 1929 may reasonably account for an absence of a rise during the autumn and winter months of the 1929-30 season. Seasonal Barley Prices, Group II 2.40 2.20 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 .00 1924-25;) t ""•-—.. - H \ - J _ / / f S* 1927 -28'] I' S r-"**' «*" r - \ \ ^<; - 1925 •26<\^ - JUN. JUL. AUG. SEP. OCT. NOV DEC. JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY Fig. 11. — Barley prices at San Francisco tend to advance during the winter months. If weather conditions are favorable for high yields in the coming harvest, prices tend to break sharply during the early spring months. Data from table 11. TREND OF WORLD BARLEY PRODUCTION BY PRINCIPAL COUNTRIES As shown in figure 12, since 1920 the trend of world barley pro- duction, exclusive of China, has been upward with an unusual rate of increase. The average world production during the three years 1927-1929 was 1,896,000,000 bushels, whereas the average for 1920- 1922 was 1,436,000,000, an increase of 32 per cent in seven years. Much of this increase may be considered to be in the nature of a Btjl, 512] Barley 21 recovery from the curtailment that took place in Europe from 1914 to 1919. A rather extended increase in world barley production occurred between 1900 and the opening" of the World War. The average production during the three years prior to 1914 was 1,850,000,000 bushels, whereas that of 1901-1903 had been 1,415,000,000 bushels, an increase of 30 per cent in ten years. It might at first appear, therefore, that all of the recent increase was in the nature of a recovery ; this, however, is not the case, as is brought out by obser- vation of the trend of production in different countries as shown in figures 13 and 14. World Barley Production, Excluding China, 1900-1930 2.2 t EXCLUDING CHINA • -J Ui I 2.0 i.e / 2 -u z o -J -J 1.6 1.2 r. 1 I I I.'.'. 1 ... 1 1 . 1. .. 1 1 ■ 1 . l—^-J , L 1 1900 1905 1910 1915 YEAR HARVESTED 1920 1925 1930 Fig. 12. — The trend of world barley production was seriously- interrupted by the World War. Data from table 16. On the North American continent, the trend of barley production has continued upward; in Europe, excluding Russia, it has more than recovered the pre-war level; but in Russia it has not yet fully recovered. The trend of barley production in the United States has been somewhat irregular since 1910. Until recent years United States production has fluctuated between 150 million and 250 million bushels; during 1928-1930 production averaged 330 million bushels. Canada has experienced a very rapid and practically unbroken upward trend in barley production. During 1910-1914 Canadian production averaged 41.2 million bushels, and for the five years 1926- 1930 it averaged 114.4 million bushels, making an average increase of 4.6 million bushels annually. If barley production continues to prove to be an effective means of weed control in wheat production, the upward trend of barley production in Canada will probably continue for several years. 22 University of California — Experiment Station Barley Production in the United States and Canada, 1910-1930 350 250 200 ^ 150 Q i V) M UNITED STATES u\ / /V3>^ V^ / V 100 z o d 7S 50 25 A - >*- — -* f CANADA ' ' V / f V 1 1 1 1 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 Fig. 13. — The trend of barley production in the United States was only slightly interrupted during the World War. The trend of barley production in Canada has been steadily upward since 1910, the average increase being 4.6 million bushels annually. Data from table 16. Barley Production in Europe, Excluding Eussia, and in Russia, 1900-1930 800 700 600