UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA AGRICULTURAL EXPERIMENT STATION _ . BENJ. IDE WHEELER, President COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURE THQWfls forsyth HUNT Dean _ 0irector BERKELEY H. E. VAN NORMAN, Vice-Director and Dean University Farm School CIRCULAR No. 163 April. 1917 SOME FUNDAMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS AFFECTING THE FOOD SUPPLY OF THE UNITED STATES Memorandum Prepared for the Committee on Resources and Food Supply of the State Council of Defense BY THOMAS FORSYTH HUNT UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA PRESS BERKELEY UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA AGRICULTURAL EXPERIMENT STATION ~«l • w-~w- ^r. .~ n .~... -r.tr,.- BENJ. IDE WHEELER, PRESIDENT COLLEGE OF AGR CULTURE >-*_ w. .-.■«., w w.*_ THOMAS FORSYTH HUNT, DEAN AND DIRECTOR BERKELEY h. e. van norman, vice-director and dean University Farm School CIRCULAR No. 163 April, 1917 SOME FUNDAMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS AFFECTING THE FOOD SUPPLY OF THE UNITED STATES MEMORANDUM PREPARED FOR THE COMMITTEE ON RESOURCES AND FOOD SUPPLY OF THE STATE COUNCIL OF DEFENSE By THOMAS FORSYTH HUNT This memorandum prepared for your Committee lias been entitled "Some Fundamental Considerations Affect- ing the Food Supply of the United States." It is true that here and there I have added concrete suggestions. These, however, are merely incidental, being presented rather as illustrations of the broader aspects of the problem, and are not intended in any way as a com- prehensive programme of action. Any statements made herein are predicated upon a three years' war. If the war lasts only three months or continues ten years, then the statements made may need to be materially modified. It is a matter of great satisfaction to be able to advise this Com- mittee that it is impossible to starve the American people. There is no occasion in the United States for the disease known as "fear of starvation." Our families cannot be brought to such distress as is known in Belgium, Poland and Germany, and which is feared in England. This is due, primarily, to the fact that the United States raises two crops that neither our enemies nor our allies raise in any such considerable quantity. These two crops are Indian corn and cotton. They render the United States impregnable. We raise an abundance of everything needed for human consumption with certain exceptions, which I will state later, and normally, in addition, produce consid- erable quantities for export. Broadly speaking, Indian corn is used for the production of butter and animal fats, while the cottonseed which we produce in growing cotton furnishes oil equivalent to one-half of the butterfat produced in the United States. About one-third of all the land plowed in the 4 United States every year is planted to Indian corn. An acre of Indian corn has nearly twice the value of an acre of wheat for human consumption. These resources are in addition to those of either our enemies or our allies. We are therefore unassailable from the stand- point of breadstuff s and fat. This does not mean that serious consideration should not be given to the food supply, nor that many people may not find it difficult to obtain money to supply themselves with sufficient food, but rather that the problem should be looked at from the right point of view. It is a problem on the one hand of producing materials for export in order to maintain a favorable balance of trade, thus also doing our duty to our allies by keeping them from starvation, and on the other hand it is a problem of the proper distribution of supplies used for domestic consumption. Distribution may be greatly affected by our military necessities. England has sought to speed up her manufac- turing industries, because a nation cannot continue indefinitely to buy products without having products of an equivalent value to sell. For many years foodstuffs and cotton have served to maintain a favorable balance of trade, although in recent years manufactured products have become more, and foodstuffs less important. I recommend to the Committee that it express itself as not favor- able to any attempt to control production by legal or military means. The feeling on the part of producers that some authority will try to control production is a sure means of preventing it. An abun- dant supply of food is more important than a cheap supply, and the best method of securing an abundant supply is high prices to the producer. Germany is said to have been successful, through its Food Dic- tator, in the distribution and control of the use of many food supplies in the larger centers of population. It has failed for the most part in its attempts to control production. In some cases its activities are said to have been an important factor in the serious shortage of certain products, such as fat. Even in the matter of distribution and control of use, only cer- tain products can be handled with any considerable success. A crop like wheat can be handled successfully for the following reasons : 1. It is harvested on any one farm over a very limited period. Thus it can be requisitioned at the minimum of expense. 2. It is not easily secreted, among other reasons, because it must be fabricated before it can be used ; first, ground, and second, for the most part baked into bread. 3. Wheat can be stored indefinitelv. 4. When made into bread its use can be controlled. Bread checks are fairly effective. A crop like potatoes cannot be controlled successfully because : 1. Potatoes can be secreted. They can be easily buried and do not require any particular fabrication for consumption; all that is neces- sary is to drop them into boiling water. A demand for 80 per cent of the farmer's wheat crop can be made reasonably effective under military necessity, but. a like demand for potatoes may not secure more than 50 per cent. Dean Barrows informs me that the potato supply of Belgium disappeared immediately upon German occupa- tion. It is easy enough to bury potatoes in such small lots and in out-of-the-way places, as to make it impracticable for any military organization to requisition them. 2. Potatoes cannot be stored indefinitely. Recognizing that pota- toes were worth more for human consumption than would be the hogs which were produced from them, the German Government had a considerable number of the hogs of the country butchered, and took over the potatoes which would have been required to feed them. The potatoes rotted, because it was subsequently found that they were not needed for human consumption, and the nation suffered for lack of fat which the hogs would have supplied had the Government not disturbed the farmers' normal procedure. A crop that is produced daily cannot be economically controlled. There is no way of determining how many eggs a flock of hens will lay on a given date; even by daily espionage, and even if it were possible, it would cost more than the product is worth. Examples might be indefinitely multiplied. It is a matter to be considered whether a proper balance of trade cannot be more effectively maintained by extending our production of barley than by restricting the production of barley for the purpose of raising more wheat. If there be any actual danger to California because she now imports considerable quantities of wheat from Wash- ington, Oregon and the Dakotas, it does not follow that the solution of the problem lies in an increased production of wheat in California. I use this illustration to suggest a type of inquiry, rather than for the purpose of expressing an opinion on the subject. The best method of meeting this possible contingency is a matter to which this Com- mittee should give serious attention. Later I will have a suggestion to make. Broadly speaking, we may divide the dollar which the consumer pays for food products into three parts, not necessarily exactly equal, but perhaps nearly so. 6 One part — let us say, one-third — goes to the producer of the product; one-third goes to the distributor, including the transporta- tion companies and the wholesalers ; and one-third goes to the retailer. The last one-third is due largely to the service which the consumer demands, and for which he insists on paying. So far as we have the evidence before us, the German Government's success in handling the food supply has consisted largely in reducing the cost of retail dis- tribution, and in controlling the amount of food which people were permitted to eat. I think I may reassert without any fear that we shall never in this country be compelled to limit, by legal or military action, the amount of food consumed ; but I believe it would be en- tirely possible as a military necessity, to reduce the service which is now rendered by the retailer, and to eliminate from that service for war purposes a considerable body of our citizens. I suggest that your Committee give some consideration to this aspect of the problem. Food for human consumption can be segregated somewhat em- pirically, yet quite significantly, into five classes: (1) Protein foods, such as meat, fish, fowl, eggs, cheese, beans and nuts; (2) Fats, including the body fat of animals (pork, beef, and mutton), butter, and vegetable oils, such as olive and cottonseed oils; (3) Starchy foods, sometimes popularly referred to as "bread foods," such as wheat, rye, barley, rice, and potatoes; (4) Fruits and vegetables; (5) Sugar. In this group for convenience I include chocolate, tea and coffee, because all of the products comprised in it are im- ported wholly or in part. It is important, as Germany has found to her sorrow, to maintain the proper balance between these five groups of foods. I would sug- gest, therefore, as each requires somewhat separate consideration, that during the conference today, the Committee appoint a subcommittee of two or three members for each group ; that during the luncheon recess each committee formulate concrete suggestions concerning the particular class of foods to which it has been assigned, and that these reports be made the first order of business on reassembling in the afternoon. Professor Jaffa has prepared for me a table* showing the value at the point of consumption of suitable foods for the average family of five persons, based on present prices. These I have classified into five groups as above suggested : This table is given in detail on page 12. Pood Total Expended per family Total Materials Ave. Min. Ave. Max. Ave. Min. Ave. Max. Protein Milk $68.40 $87.30 Meat 136.80 194.00 Eggs 28.50 72.75 Beans 2.10 2.40 $235.80 $356.45 Fats Butter 29.75 50.75 Oil and fat 17.00 29.00 46.75 79.75 Starchy Foods Flour 22.80 24.25 Cereals 12.00 13.58 Macaroni 2.80 2.80 Eice 2.10 2.40 Potatoes 28.50 38.80 68.20 81.43 Fruits and Vegetables Fruits 28.50 48.50 Green vegetables 27.36 34.92 55.86 83.42 Sugar Sugar 19.00 27.20 Tea and coffee 10.20 21.90 29.20 49.10 $435.81 $650.55 Per person per day $0,238 $0,356 Sundries, including such articles as chocolate, corn starch, baking powder, sago, gelatine, flavor- ings, spices and all dainties and extras, have been omitted. The family consists of father and mother, son 16, daughters 10 and 3 years respectively. I think it is fairly obvious from this table that the public dis- cussion of our food supplies has been placing the emphasis in the wrong places. Attention is also called to the fact that while quantities of the first four classes of foods are produced for export, sugar, in the fifth class, comes principally from Cuba and Hawaii. Since sugar is produced continuously throughout a considerable portion of the year, it has not been necessary to store large supplies, as is the case with wheat, whose harvesting season does not cover over three months. There is therefore in the United States a comparatively small supply of sugar at the present time. If an enemy nation could get control of Cuba and Hawaii, the United States would, in a com- paratively few weeks, be without sugar. Private advices from Cuba indicate that the revolutionists have destroyed millions of dollars worth of sugar, and I am informed that this is the cause of the recent advance in the price of sugar. 8 While I do not assume that our enemies are going- to get control of these sugar-producing islands, the possible contingency I feel to be one of the most important questions before the United States at the present moment. It would obviously be difficult to store sugar, either through public or private agencies, without seriously disturbing trade. Nevertheless, the matter should be very carefully considered, and the state should be advised by importers who understand the sugar trade, just how far it is possible to go in providing against the contingency just suggested. While a serious shortage of sugar is a calamity which might temporarily befall this nation, it is a condition which could not be made permanent. To begin with we can produce indefinitely quantities of glucose from Indian corn. Further, with sugar at 10 cents per pound, vast acreages in the United States could and would be profitably used in raising sugar beets if it were believed that high prices would continue. Moreover, sweet sorghum is a crop that can be raised extensively and with ease. The culture of sweet sorghum can be much more easily extended than the culture of sugar beets. More than thirty years ago the technical methods of producing sugar from sorghum were definitely worked out, but they cannot be used profitably with sugar at 5 cents per pound. The cost of producing sugar from sweet sorghum at the present time is determinable. If it were known in April that there was an emergency that required it, it would be possible to plant sorghum in May in unlimited areas, and to build factories while the crop was growing. If, however, the emergency were not perceived until September, it would take four- teen months, instead of seven months, to deliver the sugar. In other words, unlimited quantities of sugar could be produced in this country if it became necessary, but we shall doubtless prefer to secure the bulk of our sugar from neighboring islands at 5 cents or 6 cents per pound, than to produce it from sweet sorghum or even from sugar beets at 10 cents per pound. While I expect that it will never become necessary, the condition concerning sugar in the United States and that concerning wheat in California make it desirable, if it is legally possible, to pass a law giving the Governor of California power to take over and store food products when he may deem it necessary, and to issue certificates of sale, bearing 4 per cent interest, against these products, the time of redeeming the certificates of sale being at the option of the state. This is not greatly different in effect from the practice of grain elevators in the central west, which issue certificates of storage that the farmer may discount at the bank. It is possible that certain contingencies may arise that would make the power suggested to be granted the Governor of great value, and if the contingency never arose, the passage of the law could do no harm. No admonition is necessary to the farmer to grow materials so long as he understands which are likely in the long run to bring him the best returns for his labor. It may be possible, however, for the farmer to misjudge the future needs and demands. In fact, it is not possible for any human being to judge accurately. Anyone who could do so successfully might easily become many times a millionaire. This idea may be illustrated by the insistent demand for the plant- ing of potatoes and other vegetables. Most of the effective effort for the production of food for human consumption during the season of 1917 in California has long ago been discounted. What the public does not understand, and what perhaps many farmers do not realize is that as an emergency measure what is needed is the extension of forage crops as food for domestic animals. Such crops as milo, feterita, Egyptian corn, sweet sorghum, and Sudan grass should be extensively planted. They are crops in which a minimum of effort gives a maximum of result. There has not been a season in years, I am credibly informed, in which cattle and sheep in California have Come through the winter in such poor condition as in the pres- ent one. Scarcity of winter food, and the cold, backward spring, entailing scanty pastures, are among the chief causes. Already the College of Agriculture has publicly urged upon the farmers the consideration of these crops above mentioned. Quite by accident, as far as this emergency is concerned, the College of Agriculture has issued an exhaustive bulletin on Sudan grass, which is now being distributed, and which will reach over 30,000 persons. It has in hand manuscripts on grain sorghums and on sugar beets, which will soon be distributed. Land that is under irrigation will without doubt be fully used. It may be desirable, however, to urge upon farmers the interpolat- ing of beans and grain sorghums in young irrigated orchards. It is possible that the trees may be slightly affected by this procedure, but the emergency warrants it, even from the standpoint of the farmer's personal interest. In order to farm successfully great areas of California land not under irrigation, it requires looking ahead two years. For this season the die is largely cast, and to some extent even for the year to follow. Every possible preparation should be made to put suit- able unoccupied land into condition to grow crops next year, and the year aftrr. Inasmuch as in many cases two years must elapse 10 ^S-882tooo 11 before crops can be obtained, I recommend to the Committee that it give consideration to the possibility of financing the farmer who must wait two or more years for his returns. Keeping in mind that farm products during the next three years only are under consideration, the chief factors in the quantity pro- duced are the weather and the labor supply. A glance at the chart is sufficient to emphasize the influence of weather conditions. Never- theless, the labor situation may become acute. As an illustration, the Navy Yard at Mare Island recently advertised for an unlimited supply of labor at $2.50 per day. The only requirement was the ability to lift a 150-pound sack. This immediately sets a price on unskilled labor in California. This Committee should carefully con- sider whether it would be justified in requesting that farmers and farm laborers do not enlist for military service, just as it is under- stood that England has urged her skilled artisans to work in the munition factories rather than go to the trenches. There are other aspects of the labor problem which this Committee may wish to consider, as, for example, the month or months of the peak load of labor for any community; the possible use of soldiers while in train- ing to meet such peak load; the possible organization of bands of laborers for the same or similar purposes, and the better organization of labor-saving machinery, such as, for example, the itinerant rental of State-owned tractors and attendant machinery. I am not advising that these things be done, but I am suggesting that they are very pertinent subjects for the consideration of your Committee. Without stopping to summarize the fundamentals hastily and crudely outlined, I desire in closing to state the service which the Department of Agriculture of the University of California is in a position to render immediately, if the Committee considers it desir- able. By co-operating with the county organizations which it is understood the State Council of Defense purposes to create, or with- out such organizations, it would be possible to hold meetings in each county in the State, where public hearings could be held as to exist- ing conditions, and at which any recommendations which this Com- mittee may wish to formulate can be discussed with the farmers in attendance. The importance of such hearings will obviously depend upon the character and concreteness of the recommendations which the Committee wishes to make at this time, and the character of the information it desires to secure as the basis for future action. The Department of Agriculture has the machinery by which this can be 12 accomplished in every county in the State in twelve days. If it is worth doing, the sooner it is done the better. I presume that the deliberations of this Committee will fall into three categories: 1. What advice the Committee desires at this time to give to the public. 2. What legislation it desires to suggest to the State Council of Defense. 3. What further inquiries it desires to make or have made, as the basis for future action. If in any of these matters, or in any other way the 165 officers of the Department of Agriculture of the University of California can aid your Committee they are entirely at your disposal. 13 STAPLE FOODS FOE AN AVEEAGE FAMILY OF FIVE PEESONS Pounds per family Total expended per per year Price per family Food materials Min. Max. pound Min. Max. Milk 1368 1746 $0.05 $68.40 $87.30 Butter 85 145 .35 29.75 50.75 Meat 684 970 .20 136.80 194.00 Oil and fat 85 145 .20 17.00 29.00 Eggs 114 291 .25 28.50 72.75 Beans 21 24 .10 2.10 2.40 Flour 456 485 .05 22.80 24.25 Cereals 171 194 .07 12.00 13.58 Macaroni 28 28 .10 2.80 2.80 Eice 42 48 .05 2.10 2.40 Potatoes 570 776 .05 28.50 38.80 Green vegetables 684 873 .04 27.36 34.92 Fruits 571 970 .05 28.50 48.50 Sugar 233 340 .08 19.00 27.20 Tea and coffee 34 73 .30 10.20 21.90 Sundries .... Totals $435.81 $650.55 Per person per day $0,238 $0,356 Notes. — Sundries include such articles as chocolate, corn starch, baking powder, sago, gelatine, flavorings, spices, and all dainties and extras. The family consists of father and mother, son 16, daughters 10 years and 3 years respec- tively. STATTON PUBLICATIONS AVAILABLE FOR FREE DISTRIBUTION REPORTS 1897. Resistant Vines, their Selection, Adaptation, and Grafting. Appendix to ViticuUural Report for 1896. 1902. Report of the Agricultural Experiment Station for 1898-1901. 1903. Report of the Agricultural Experiment Station for 1901-03. 1904. Twenty-second Report of the Agricultural Experiment Station for 1903-04. 1914. Report of the College of Agriculture and the Agricultural Experiment Station, Jul v. 1913-June, 1914. 1915. Report of the College of Agriculture and the Agricultural Experiment Station. .Ttilv 1914-June, 1915. BULLETINS No. 168. .78. 185. 203. 207. 208. 212. 213. 216. 225. 230. 241. 242. 244. 246. 24 9. 250. 251. No 65. 69. 70. 76. 82. 107. 108. 109. 113. 114. 115. 117. 118. 121. 124. 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Observations on Some Vine Diseases in Sonoma County. Tolerance of the Sugar Beet for Alkali. Mosquito Control. Report of the Plant Pathologist to July 1, 1906. Report of Progress in Cereal Investi gations. Report of the Plant Pathologist to July 1, 1909. The Control of the Argentine Ant. The Late Blight of Celery. California White Wheats. The Principles of Wine-making. A Progress Report Upon Soil and Cli matic Factors Influencing the Com- position of Wheat. Tolerance of Eucalyptus for Alkali. Enological Investigations. Vine Pruning in California, Part I. Humus in California Soils. Utilization of Waste Oranges. Vine Pruning in California, Part II. The Economic Value of Pacific Coast Kelps. Stock-Poisoning Plants of California. The Loqnat. Utilization of the Nitrogen and Organic Matter in Septic and Imhoff Tank Sludges. No. 252. 253. 254. 255. 256. 257. 261. 262. 263. 264. 265. 270. 271. 272. 273. 274. CIRCULARS No. 136. 137. 138. 139. The California Insecticide Law. The Extermination of Morning-Glory. Observations on the Status of Corn Growing in California. Hot Room Callusing. The Common Ground Squirrels of California. 140. Spraying Walnut Trees for Blight and Aphis Control. Grape Juice. 141. Community or Local Extension Work by the High School Agricultural De 142. partment. Correspondence Courses in Agriculture . 143. Increasing the Duty of Water. Grafting Vinifera Vineyards. 144. The Selection and Cost of a Small 145. Pumping Plant. The County Farm Bureau. 146. Some Things the Prospective Settler Should Know. 147. Alfalfa Silage for Fattening Steers. 148. Spraying for the Grape Leaf Hopper. 149. House Fumigation. 150. Insecticide Formulas. 151. The Control of Citrus Insects. 152. Cabbage Growing in California. Spraying for Control of Walnut Aphis. 153. When to Vaccinate against Hog Cholera. 154. County Farm Adviser. Control of Raisin Insects. 155. Official Tests of Dairv Cows. 156. Deterioration of Lumber. Irrigation and Soil Conditions in the Sierra Nevada Foothills, California. The Avocado in California. The Citricola Scale. Value of Barlev for Cows Fed Alfalfa. New Dosage Tables. Melaxuma of the Walnut, "Juglans regia." Citrus Diseases of Florida and Cubii Compared with Those of California. Size Grade for Ripe Olives. The Calibration of the Leakage Meter. Cottony Rot of Lemons in California. A Spotting of Citrus Fruits Due to the Action of Oil Liberated from the Rind Experiments with Stocks for Citrus. Growing and Grafting Olive Seedlings. Phenolic Insecticides and Fungicides. A Comparison of Annual Cropping, Bi- ennial Cropping, and Green Manures on the Yield of Wheat. Feeding Dairy Calves in California. Commercial Fertilizers. Preliminary Report on Kearney Vine- yard Experimental Drain. The Common Honey Bee as an Agent in Prune Pollination. Melilotus Indica. Wood Decay in Orchard Trees. The Silo in California Agriculture. The Generation of Hydrocyanic Acid Gas in Fumigation by Portable Ma chines. The Practical Application of Improved Methods of Fermentation in Califor nia Wineries during 1913 and 1914. Standard Insecticides and Fungicides versus Secret Preparations. Practical and Inexpensive Poultry Ap pliances. Control of Grasshoppers in Imperial Valley. Oidium or Powdery Mildew of the Vine. Suggestions to Poultrymen concerning Chicken Pox. Jellies and Marmalades from Citrui Fruits. Tomato Growing in California "Lungworms" Lawn Making in California. Round Worms in Poultry. Feeding and Management of Hogs. Some Observations on the Bulk Hand ling of Grain in California. Announcement of the California State Dairy Cow Competition, 1916-18. Irrigation Practice in Growing Small Fruits in California. Bovine Tuberculosis. How to Operate an Incubator.