HC 437 Psws UC-NRLF ^B bTl 3L1 CO "^ o RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN THE PUNJAB A PAPER READ BY Sir JAMES WILSON, K.C.S.L, TO THE ROYAL ECONOMIC SOCIETY ON THE QTH FEBRUARY, 191O 1 :• Printed by RICHARD CLAY AND SONS, Limited, BREAD STREET HILL, E.G., AND BUNGAY, SUFFOLK I9IO h ■'/ S 7 Richard Clay and Sons, Limited, brrad street hill, k.c., and BDNOAV SUFFOLK. c « « c c « c r - e c < t 1 ' ; • .*. '• ;• : ; .. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN THE PUNJAB I PROPOSE in this paper to give some account of the changes which have occurred within the last quarter of a century in the economic conditions of the British districts of the Punjab, and of the effect those changes have had on the material welfare of the different classes of the people. It has been my official duty, for the last 34 years, to take a deep interest in all that concerns the well-being of the population in many parts of the Province, and especially of that large portion of it which is dependent on agriculture ; so that the opinions and conclusions I have to offer are the result of long and close study and personal experience. I have however thought it desirable to correct and support them by statistics obtained from the official returns. Those statistics would require some explanation and modification before they could be made the basis of any definite action, such as the assessment of the land revenue ; but for my present purpose it is sufficient to take them as they stand and to make merely arithmetical calcula- tions of equivalents, comparisons, and averages. I may explain that the Indian standard measure of weight is the maund, which weighs 8'2f lb. avoirdupois; but in converting maunds into tons, I have taken the maund as 80 lb., and reckoned 28 maunds as equal to one ton. A quarter of Indian wheat is expected to weigh 492 lb., or almost exactly six maunds. The Indian rupee, which is divided into sixteen annas, has for the last eleven years been exactly equal in value to 16 pence ; so that the present value of the anna is exactly one penny, it follows that, for wheat, every two annas per maund is equivalent in gold to one shilling per quarter. M43399 RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS Area and Kainfall. The Punjab, up lo 1901, included what is now called the { N^rth-wGist.Fiontier Province, and the totals given in the volumes of statistics up to that year included the figures for the districts which have since formed that separate province. Some of the statistics — as, for instance, those for trade and for post-office transactions — include not only the North-west Frontier Province, but the Native States under the control of the Lieutenant- Governor. Where possible, as in the case of the census and agricultural statistics, I have excluded from my figures both those ; for the North-west Frontier Province and for the Native States, ; so that these figures relate only to the 29 British districts of the present Punjab, to v^-hich I desire to confine attention. It has not been possible to make a similar exception in the case of the ■^ trade statistics, which relate to a total area of 150,000 square miles and a population of "27 millions, while the districts of the present Punjab directly under British rule have an area of only 97,000 square miles and a population of only 20 millions. Trade depends more on population than on area, and it will be sufficient for present purposes to deduct, roughly, one-fourth from the total figures for trade , in order to make them applicable to the present British province. It is useful to remember that the area of these 29 Punjab districts is about three-fourths of that of the United Kingdom, and their population a little less than half the popu- lation of the United Kingdom. The Province includes a large area of sparsely inhabited, I mountainous country, but five-sixths of the total population live ' in a portion of the great alluvial plain, which stretches from the foot of the Himalayas down to the sea, and is crossed by the five great tributaries of the Indus, which give it its name of the "Punjab," or "five waters." These rivers bring down the melted snows and the drainage from the hills, and have now been har- nessed by massive engineering works, and made to irrigate vast tracts of country ; but a large proportion of the crops grown is still dependent on the local rainfall, which varies very much from place to place and from year to year. The average rainfall for the year, in the plains, varies from about 35 inches in the sub- montane districts to 6 inches in the extreme south-west of the Province. For the whole area the arithmetical average for a long series of years is 25 inches ; but in 1907-8 it was only IN THE PUNJAB 5 17 inches, and in 1908-9 it was 32 inches : that is to say, the Province in the last agricultural year received almost twice as much rain as it did in the year before last. Cultivation, Irrigation, and Crops. The area under cultivation very rapidly increased immediately after annexation brought peace and security to a distracted country sixty years ago, and has since been steadily expanding almost without a break. In 1887 the cultivated area of the present Punjab was 22 million acres ; now it is over 28 million acres, an increase of 27 per cent. The irrigated area was then 6 million acres ; now it is nearly 11 million acres, and it will soon be double what it was a quarter of a century ago. This increase of irrigation is partly due to an increase in the number of wells, made by the "■'■/ people themselves, from about 200,000 to about 280,000, which means that in that period landowners have spent £2,000,000 sterling in making new wells ; but it is chiefly due to the construc- tion at State expense of the great canals, which are the pride of the Province, and which now irrigate 6^ million acres of crops as compared with only 2 million acres 22 years ago. The area of crops sown in any one year often differs greatly from the area under cultivation, partly because a certain area, not very large, is intentionally left fallow, but chiefly because every year there are considerable areas all over the Province which, owing to a partial failure either of the rainfall or of the canal supply, fail to receive sufficient moisture at sowing time to make it worth while to sow them. Again, we have two harvests in the Punjab, one reaped in October and the other in April, and although most of the land produces only one crop in the year, a considerable area, aided by irrigation and manure, produces two crops in the year. The area so double-cropped has increased from less than 3 million acres 22 years ago to about 4 million acres now. The last three agricultural years may be taken as fairly typical of present circumstances, the first of them having been a good year, the second excessively dry, and the third excessively wet. On the average of those three years the area of crops sown was 28 million acres, almost equal to the total area under cultivation : but in the first year 30 million acres of crops were sown, in the second, the dry year, only 24| million acres, and in the third, the wet year, 29^ million. Further, even after a field has been sown with a crop, the outturn varies B 8 RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS of the present average value of the agricultural produce of the Punjab, to deduct from last year's estimate 10 per cent, for high yield and 20 per cent, for excessive prices, or say 30 per cent, altogether, and estimate the present average value of the gross produce at 48 crores of rupees, or ^32,000,000 sterling. The present land revenue demand of the Punjab is a little less than 3 crores of rupees, or dG2,000,000 sterling ; so that, if this estimate is approximately correct, the land revenue equals about 6 per cent, of the average value of the gross agricultural produce, with- out taking into account the very large income from live stock. The population of the 29 British districts in 1901 was just over 20 millions : the annual returns of births and deaths show that since then it must have fallen off by about 3 per cent., owing to the ravages of plague and fever ; but it is now increasing again, and for present purposes we may take it at 20 millions. Accord- ing to the most careful estimates, the average annual consumption of food-grain is about 6 maunds per head, or the equivalent in weight of a quarter of wheat. This would give the annual con- sumption of the whole jDopulation as about 4| million tons, to which we may add J million tons for consumption by cattle ; and, if my estimate of the average produce of food-grains at 6 million tons is correct, this would leave on the average about IJ million tons of food-grain available for export. We shajl see how far this estimate agrees with the actual trade returns. According to these estimates, the average weight of produce per head of population, besides fodder, is at present about | of a ton ; and including fodder, the present average value of the gross agricultural produce per head of total population is about 24 rupees, or 32 shillings. A comparison with the state of things in 1887 may be made as follows : Average area under cultivation (millions of acres)... Average area irrigated (millions of acres) ... Average area sown (millions of acres) Total population (millions) ... Average area sown per head of population (acres) ... In the last 22 years the average area sown per head of popula- tion has increased from 1"1 to 1'4 of an acre, an increase of 27 per cent. It is necessary to allow for the great increase in the average yield due to the extension of irrigation ; for an irrigated acre produces on the average about double the produce per sown acre given by unirrigated land. If we allow for this by multiplying the irrigated area by two, we find that the increase in the total 886-7. 1908-9 22 28 6 11 20-5 28 18-5 20 1-1 1-4 IN THE PUNJAB 9 produce since 1887 must be, not in the proportion of 20" 5 to 28, but in the proportion of 26"5 to 39, that is, it must have increased by nearly 50 per cent. ; and the average produce per head of population must have increased in the proportion of 143 to 19;j, that is, by 36 per cent. These figures are necessarily only approximate, but there can be no doubt that the agricultural land of the Punjab now produces far more per head of population than it did a quarter of a century ago. As I shall show, all classes of the people have shared in the increase of prosperity indicated by these figures. We have no millionaires in the Punjab, and com- paratively few rich landowners and merchants.^ Imports and Exports, In Appendix III. I have tabulated the principal figures for imports and exports for tLe eight years ending March, 1909, as given in the Internal Trade Eeport for the Province. It is neces- sary to remember that, as already explained, these figures relate to an area embracing not only the 29 British districts of the Punjab, but also its Native States and the North-west Frontier Province, and that, on the basis of population, only about three- fourths of the totals represent the trade of the 29 British districts. The statistics show that for the whole area, on the average of the eight years, as compared with the average of the three years ending 1889, the imports of goods have increased in weight from ^ 10 to 30 million maunds, and in value from 92 to 198 million rupees ; while the exports have increased in weight from 14 to 42 million maunds, and in value from 72 to 181 million rupees : that is, both imports and exports have trebled in weight and more than doubled in value, as compared with twenty years ago. During the last eight years (with the exception of the very dry year 1908-9) trade has been increasing, the figures for 1907-8 constituting a record, both in imports and exports, and both in w^eight and value ; and if we take the average for the last four years (including the bad year), and turn it into English measures, ^ we find the imports of goods averaged 1'3 million tons, of the value of nearly £16,000,000 sterling, and the exports of goods averaged 1'7 million tons, of the value of £14,000,000 sterling; besides which there was a net import of treasure averaging over ^ According to the income-tax returns there are only 6,500 persons in the province who have an income, derived from other souices than laud, exceeding £133 per annum- 10 RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS £1,500,000 sterling per annum. It will be noticed that, including treasure, the total imports exceeded the total exports by more than £3,000,000 sterling per annum. For this phenomenon the following reasons suggest themselves. First, there has been during these eight years a very large expenditure in the Punjab and North-west Frontier Province on railways and canals, financed almost entirely by capital raised outside these provinces, and poured into them in the form of railway and other material and wages for labour. Secondly, the amount expended by Grovern- ment within this area on pay of troops and cost of military works, probably exceeds the contribution it makes towards Imperial expenses. Thirdly, a considerable sum is annually remitted to the Punjab and North-west Frontier Province by men who are serving outside that area in the Army and Police, or who are engaged in business abroad. These causes are likely to con- tinue, and we may expect generally to find that the total imports into this area will appreciably exceed in value the total exports. Some people talk of the excess of exports over imports as a drain upon India : in the Punjab, at all events, the drain is the other way. Gold and silver are not immediately consumed, like most other articles of trade, and as the imports of these precious metals have in the eight years exceeded the exports to the value of £13,000,000 sterling, the quantity of gold and silver in this area at the end of the eight year period must have exceeded the quantity at the beginning of it to that value. The reported net import of gold is only £500,000 sterling, but probably a good deal more escaped registration. The net import of nearly £2,000,000 w^orth of coined rupees may have been largely absorbed in the circulation to meet the rise of prices and the greater activity of trade ; but the £10,000,000 worth of silver bullion, net imported, must have gone to swell the hoards and ornaments of the people, and probably three-fourths of it, or, say, £7,000,000 sterling, found their way to the 29 British districts of the Punjab. This process has been going on for many years, and the quantity of silver now in possession of the residents of the Punjab must be very large. Credit is of slow growth, but if we could find means to persuade the people to invest their savings in productive loans instead of hoarding them in the form of silver, the industries of the province, including agriculture, would receive a great impetus. In Appendix III. I have given the figures for the value in rupees of the principal articles of import and export, from which it will be seen that, on the average of the last four years, those IN THE PUNJAB 11 articles represented the following proportion of the total (exclud- ing treasure) : Imports. Exports, Articles. Total articles ... Value in millions of pounds. ... 15-73 Per cent. of total. 100 Value in millions Articles. ofpounds. Total articles 14-00 Per cent, of total. 100 Cotton piece-goods Sugar Metals... Railway })lant... Oils and oilseeds Coal aud coke... Jute goods ... 4-35 ... 2-01 ... 1-40 ... 0-88 ... 0-91 ... 0-48 ... 0-57 28 13 9 6 6 3 4 Total grain and pulse... 7'75 Wheat aud wheat-ilour 4 74 Raw cotton ... ... 1'51 Oilseeds 91 Hides and skins ... 073 Wool 31 55 33 11 6 5 2 ' Of the import trade 28 per cent, is cotton piece-goods of the annual value of 4 J million sterling, about two-thirds of this total j coming from Lancashire ; 13 per cent, is sugar of the annual value I of £2,000,000. There are large and growing imports of metals and railway plant of the average value of over £2,000,000. The import of coal from Bengal is small, but increasing; and there is a considerable import of jute goods, also from Bengal, chiefly used I as grain sacks. The exports consist almost entirely of raw ! agricultural and pastoral produce. Wheat and wheat flour of the value of £4,740,000 sterling (a third of the value of the total ex- ports) are annually exported, and the exports of grain and pulse of all kinds, including wheat, amount to £7,750,000 sterling annu- ally; raw cotton accounts for £1,500,000, oilseeds for £1,000,000, ■■ and hides, skins, and wool for another £1,000,000 annually. In order to eliminate the effect of rising prices on these statistics, I have given in the appendix the weights of imports and exports of grain and pulse. It will be seen that with the exception of the last very dry year there has been a rapid increase in these eight years in the net exports of these articles, and that on the average of the last four years of the series (including the bad year) the net export amounted to 34 million maunds (or IJ million tons), of which 23 million maunds (or 800,000 tons) were wheat. In ordinary years the greater part of the wheat, oilseeds and cotton exported from the Punjab goes through Karachi to Europe, and in the summer of 1907 there was, as usual, a large export in that direction ; but in the end of that year 1 the serious failure of rain in the United Provinces led to a very 12 RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS rapid rise of prices there, which attracted great quantities of grain from the Punjab. During the summer of 1908, the scarcity in the United Provinces continued, and as there was also widesi:>read drought in the Punjab, the surplus available for export was much less than usual, and stocks had been depleted by the large export of the previous winter. In the year ending March, 1909, the net exports of grain and pulse from the Punjab area were only 12 million maunds, as compared with 50 million in the year before, and the net exports of wheat fell off from 32 to 9 million maunds. The available surplus still went mainly to the United Provinces, in answer to the high prices there , and the exports of wheat from Karachi, in the busy season, April to August, which had averaged 514,000 tons for the previous four years, fell off to only 44,000 tons. In 1909 the harvests in the United Provinces were good, and high prices in Europe again attracted the Punjab surplus, which was large owing to a favourable year, and during the seven months, April to October last year, the exports of wheat from Karachi amounted to 627,000 tons, most of which must have come from the Punjab, There is also a considerable export of Punjab wheat towards Calcutta and Bombay; and during the present financial year the agriculturists of the Punjab must have received something like £6,000,000 sterling for their surplus wheat alone. In framing an estimate of the probable exports of an average year, we must obviously make some allowance for the fact that 1908 was an unusually poor year, and that such bad seasons are not likely to recur often. If we take the average of the previous three years, and allow one-fourth off the figures as representing the area outside the Province proper, we find that the 29 British districts actually exported annually IJ million tons of grain and pulse : in the last of those three years, after a fair harvest, they actually exported IJ million tons. Cultivation and irrigation are still extending faster than the growth of population, and the surplus available for export continues to increase. It will be remembered that, after a comparison of "the estimates of produc- tion and consumption, I calculated that at present, on the average, about IJ million tons of food-grain are available for export. After studying the figures for actual export, I would adhere to this estimate : that is, we may expect for some years to come that the average annual exports of grain and pulse from the 29 British districts will be about IJ million tons (42 million maunds), of the value of about ^68,000,000 sterling; and that, of wheat alone, the Punjab will provide an annual surplus for export IN THE PUNJAB 13 of about 1 million tons, or over 4^ million quarters. The estimated consumption of wheat in the United Kingdom for the six years ending 190G averaged 32 million quarters; so that the Punjab's annual surplus of wheat, if it were all brought to this country, would furnish one-seventh of the population with all the w^heat they require for a year's consumption. The great and rapid increase of trade which has taken place in recent years is due mainly to the improvement in communica- tions by railway, road, post office, and telegraph. During the last 23 years the railway mileage in the Punjab has risen from 2,000 to about 3,500 miles. Statistics for all the railways of the Province are not available, but the following figures for the most important of them, the North- Western Eailway, owned and managed by the State, which works branches all over the Punjab, as well as in the North-west Frontier Province and in Sind, afford some indication of the progress of railway communication. Since 1886 its capital expenditure has risen from £15,000,000 to £45,000,000 sterling, the gross receipts from £1,500,000 to nearly £4,000,000 sterling, the number of passengers carried from 10 to 40 millions, and the goods conveyed from 2 to 9 million tons. There has also been a great improvement in the roads almost all over the Province. In the ten years ending 1906-7 the number of post offices in the Punjab and North-west Frontier Province had increased from 1,750 to 3,000 ; the number of miles over which mails are conveyed from 14,000 to 20,000 ; the expenditure from £75,000 to £160,000; the number of letters and post- cards carried from 53 to 99 million ; the number of newspapers carried from 4 to 6| million ; the number of money orders issued and paid from 2^ to 4j million ; and their value from £3,750,000 sterling to nearly £5,250,000. This rapid improvement in the means of communication has both cheapened transport enormouslj^ and quickened trade, so that the effect of any important change in prices is at once felt all over the Province and leads to a corre- sponding movement of goods. It has altered the conditions of trade in the most remote villages, giving them better prices for the surplus produce they have to sell, and bringing them goods from outside at cheaper prices than before. The greater competi- tion among traders has also tended to reduce the profits of the middleman, and a larger proportion of the market price reaches the pocket of the peasant farmer. Indeed, it is much more common now than it used to be for the peasant to bring his own produce to market, and sell it for cash at the market price, instead 12 RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS rapid rise of prices there, which attracted great quantities of grain from the Punjab. During the summer of 1908, the scarcity in the United Provinces continued, and as there was also widespread drought in the Punjab, the surplus available for export was much less than usual, and stocks had been depleted by the large export of the previous winter. In the year ending March, 1909, the net exports of grain and pulse from the Punjab area were only 12 million maunds, as compared with 50 million in the year before, and the net exports of wheat fell off from 32 to 9 million maunds. The available surplus still went mainly to the United Provinces, in answer to the high prices there, and the exports of wheat from Karachi, in the busy season, April to August, which had averaged 514,000 tons for the previous four years, fell off to only 44,000 tons. In 1909 the harvests in the United Provinces were good, and high prices in Europe again attracted the Punjab surplus, which was large owing to a favourable year, and during the seven months, April to October last year, the exports of wheat from Karachi amounted to 627,000 tons, most of which must have come from the Punjab. There is also a considerable export of Punjab wheat towards Calcutta and Bombay; and during the present financial year the agriculturists of the Punjab must have received something like £6,000,000 sterling for their surplus wheat alone. In framing an estimate of the probable exports of an average year, we must obviously make some allowance for the fact that 1908 was an unusually poor year, and that such bad seasons are not likely to recur often. If we take the average of the previous three years, and allow one-fourth off the figures as representing the area outside the Province proper, we find that the 29 British districts actually exported annually 1^ million tons of grain and pulse : in the last of those three years, after a fair harvest, they actually exported IJ million tons. Cultivation and irrigation are still extending faster than the growth of population, and the surplus available for export continues to increase. It will be remembered that, after a comparison of 'the estimates of produc- tion and consumption, I calculated that at present, on the average, about IJ million tons of food-grain are available for export. After studying the figures for actual export, I would adhere to this estimate : that is, we may expect for some years to come that the average annual exports of grain and pulse from the 29 British districts will be about IJ million tons (42 million maunds), of the value of about £8,000,000 sterling; and that, of wheat alone, the Punjab will provide an annual surplus for export IN THE PUNJAB 13 of about 1 inillioii tons, or over 4| million quarters. The estimated consumption of wheat in the United Ivingdom for the six years ending 1906 averaged 32 million quarters; so that the Punjab's annual surplus of wheat, if it were all brought to this country, would furnish one-seventh of the population with all the wheat they require for a year's consumption. The great and rapid increase of trade which has taken place in recent years is due mainly to the improvement in communica- tions by railway, road, post office, and telegraph. During the last 23 years the railway mileage in the Punjab has risen from 2,000 to about 3,500 miles. Statistics for all the railways of the Province are not available, but the following figures for the most important of them, the North- Western Kail way, owned and managed by the State, which works branches all over the Punjab, as well as in the North-west Frontier Province and in Sind, afl'ord some indication of the progress of railway communication. Since 1886 its capital expenditure has risen from .^15,000,000 to £45,000,000 sterling, the gross receipts from £1,500,000 to nearly £4,000,000 sterling, the number of ijassengers carried from 10 to 40 millions, and the goods conveyed from 2 to 9 million tons. There has also been a great improvement in the roads almost all over the Province. In the ten years ending 1906-7 the number of post offices in the Punjab and North-west Frontier Province had increased from 1,750 to 3,000 ; the number of miles over which mails are conveyed from 14,000 to 20,000 ; the expenditure from £75,000 to £160,000; the number of letters and post- cards carried from 53 to 99 million ; the number of newspapers carried from 4 to 6^ million ; the number of money orders issued and paid from 2 J to 4 J million ; and their value from £3,750,000 sterling to nearly £5,250,000. This rapid improvement in the means of communication has both cheapened transport enormously and quickened trade, so that the effect of any important change in prices is at once felt all over the Province and leads to a corre- sponding movement of goods. It has altered the conditions of trade in the most remote villages, giving them better prices for the surplus produce they have to sell, and bringing them goods from outside at cheaper prices than before. The greater competi- tion among traders has also tended to reduce the profits of the middleman, and a larger proportion of the market price reaches the pocket of the peasant farmer. Indeed, it is much more common now than it used to be for the peasant to bring his own produce to market, and sell it for cash at the market price, instead c 14 RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS of allowing the village shopkeeper to take it at a price fixed more or less by himself, and to credit the value to the peasant's running account in his books. Prices. The rupee is the universal unit of value in India, and, what- ever be the variations in the value of the rupee, due to the rise and fall of exchange or to manipulations of the currency, one of the most important questions both to the cultivator who has surplus produce to sell, and to the consumer who requires to buy it for his daily food, is the rupee price of the principal food-grains. In Appendix IV. will be found the annual average retail prices for the last thirty-seven years of the four food-grains chiefly grown and consumed in the Province. Wheat and gram are reaped in April and bajra and jawar in October. Gram is a pulse which tastes not unlike a pea. Bajra and jawar are millets, of which bajra, though it has a smaller grain, is considered more tasty and nutritious than jawar. On the average for the whole period, taking the price of wheat as 100, the prices of the other grains have been in the proportion of bajra 89, gram 81, and jawar 78. As compared with the average of the eighteen years ending 1890, the average prices for the last 19 years show a rise as follows : wheat, 34 per cent. ; bajra, 35 per cent. ; gram, 40 per cent. ; and jawar, 32 per cent. : so that, from this superficial comparison, it may be said,' roughly, that in the last 20 years the rupee prices of the principal food-grains have risen by about 35 per cent. But a glance at the diagram, which presents pictorially the same annual rupee prices, will show that the real state of things is too complicated to be disposed of in this purely arithmetical fashion. It will be seen that prices rise and fall very rapidly according to the character of the seasons. Por instance, in 1894, after a series of good years, the price of wheat went down to 1'67 rupees per maund ; a succession of dry years followed, culminating in 1897, which was a year of famine over a large part of India, and in that year w^heat sold in the Punjab at 3'85 rupees per maund, a rise in price of 131 per cent, in three years. In the next year, 1898, the price of wheat suddenly fell again to 2 '46 rupees, but in the dry year 1900 it rose again to 3*35 rupees. It then steadily fell, till in the good year 1904 it was 2'26 rupees— cheaper than it had been for nine years. Since then it has steadily risen, and in the year 1908, which was characterised by a very widespread IN THE PUNJAB 15 drought in Northern India, it rushed up to the record price of 4" 19 rupees per maund, nearly double the price of four years before. It will also be noticed how the prices of the different food- grains rise and fall together ; how closely they coincide in years of scarcity, wdien purchasers think mainly of the sustaining power of food, and are not particular about its toothsomeness ; and how they fall apart in years of plenty, when more of the people can afford to buy wheat, and the demand for the inferior grains falls off. Thus in the famine year 1897, when wheat was selling at 3*85 rupees per maund, even jawar (the average price of which is 1"93) sold at 3"42 ; and again in the very dry year 1908, when wheat sold at 4" 19, jawar sold at 3'52. On the other hand, in the plentiful year 1904, when wheat was selling at 2 "26, jawar only fetched 1'40, or less than two-thirds of the price of wheat. The figures for the year just ended are not yet available, but to judge from the prices for last September, which I have inserted in the table and diagram, they are likely to show an unusual state of things ; for while the price of wheat remained very high at 3*67 rupees per maund, the price of the other grains fell to about 2-^- rupees, or little more than the average price of the last nine years. The reason of this no doubt is that, as wheat is largely exported to Europe, its price in the Punjab is to a great extent determined by its price in the European markets ; while the other three grains are almost entirely consumed in India, and their price depends only on the supply and demand in India itself. The Value of the Eupee. The price of wheat in the Punjab has in recent years been largely determined by its price for purposes of export, and that price depends upon its price in the world's markets, of which Loudon may be taken as typical. Now, the London purchaser of Punjab wheat naturally reckons his profits in gold, and has to calculate, not only what amount of gold he will get for his wheat in London, and the cost of transporting it from the Punjab to London, but the amount he will have to pay for it in the Punjab, not in rupees, but in gold ; in other words, he has to take into account the rate of exchange between the sovereign and the rupee. In Appendix V. and in the corresponding diagram I have given, for each year since 1873, the average price of silver in London per standard ounce, and the average rate of exchange in pence per c 2 16 RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS rupee. Previous to 1873 the ratio of value of gold to silver throughout the world had for many years remained fairly station- ary at about 15 J to 1, or, in other words, silver was worth about 60 "84 pence per ounce. As silver was freely coined into an equal weight in rupees at the Indian mints the value of the rupee in gold was almost exactly the same as the value of the silver in the rupee ; and when silver sold at 60"84 pence per ounce, the value of the silver in a rupee was almost exactly 24 pence ; so that in those days the exchange value of the rupee remained practically stationary at about 24 pence, or two shillings per rupee ; or, in other words, ten rupees were equivalent in value to one sovereign. Omitting the fraction, and taking 60 pence per ounce as equiva- lent to 24 pence per rupee, I have for pictorial purposes shown in the diagram the price of silver in multiples of 2J pence per ounce. Owing to changes in the world's demand and supply of silver in comparison with the demand and supply of gold, about 1870 the gold value of silver began to fall, and as the Indian mints remained open to the unrestricted coinage of rupees until 1893, the gold value of the rupee fell in proportion to the fall in the gold value of the silver contained in it ; and a glance at the 4iagram will show that the line representing variations in the rate of exchange, that is, in the gold value of the rupee, is for those years almost exactly parallel to the line representing changes in the gold value of silver. The fall in the gold value of silver, and therefore of the rupee, went on so rapidly that in 1892 the rupee was worth in gold only 15 pence in place of the 24 pence it was worth 20 years before ; in other words , it took 16 rupees to buy a sovereign, instead of the old ratio of 10 rupees to the sovereign. This fall in the gold value of the rupee, so far as it was due to the appreciation of gold in relation to all other com- modities, did not so very much matter to the inhabitants of the Punjab, but so far as it was due to the depreciation of silver in relation to all other commodities, and so caused a general rise in silver prices, it acted very unfairly to many people, although it was of advantage to others; for instance, all debtors who were bound to pay a fixed number of rupees benefited, and their creditors suffered, because the debt contracted in rupees worth 24 pence could now be paid in rupees worth only 15 pence ; and again, it was hard on all who drew salaries or wages fixed in rupees, as their rupees now purchased much less of general com- modities than before. The fall in the gold value of the rupee had a disastrous effect on the finances of India, which owes a large debt in gold, and has to pay the interest in gold or its equivalent, IN THE PUNJAB 17 while its income is almost entirely in rupees. For these reasons the Government of India in 1893 took the bold step of closing the Indian mints to the unrestricted coinage of rupees, with the object of reducing the supply of rupees so that the demand for them should maintain the value of the rupee in gold at 16 pence, what- ever might be the value of silver. The experiment was a risky one , for there was a very large , but unknown , quantity of rupees in hoards, which might be tempted into circulation and upset all calculations ; but ultimately it was completely successful in attain- ing its object. The gold value of silver went rapidly down still further, till in 1895 it was only 30 pence per ounce, just half the traditional rate which had prevailed up to 22 years before. The gold value of the rupee also fell, but not in proportion to the fall in the gold value of silver. It reached its lowest point in the year 1895, and was then worth in gold only 13' 6 pence, w^hile the silver in it was worth only 12 pence. Then the demand for rupees began to overtake the supply, and the gold value of the rupee steadily rose, until in 1898 it reached 16 pence, and has since remained practically at that figure ; that is, 15 rupees have for the last eleven years equalled a sovereign in value. The rupee cannot rise appreciably above 16 pence, because since 1899 the sovereign is legal tender in India at the ratio of 15 rupees ; so that, if people found they could buy sovereigns at anything under, say, 14| rupees, it would pay them to purchase sovereigns from anywhere in the world and to pay their debts in sovereigns instead of in rupees. There is still a danger that in seasons in which, owing to a decrease in the demand for currency, there is a redundancy of rupees in circulation , the gold value of the rupee might fall below 16 pence ; and eighteen months ago some anxiety was caused by the enormous number of rupees which were returned from circulation into the Government treasuries, owing to the poorness of the harvests and the slackening of trade ; and it became necessary, by the issue in India of sterling bills, to draw largely on the gold standard reserve in London to keep up exchange : but the measures taken were successful and the danger was tided over. The fact remains that for the last eleven years the gold value of the rupee has continued steady at 16 pence, and there seems no reason to fear that it will ever depart appreciably from that ratio. The closing of the mints, therefore, has resulted in a steadying of the value of the rupee in relation to gold, and has eliminated the very perplexing factor formerly due to the great fluctuations of exchange; as, for all practical purposes, buyers and sellers may now safely assume that a sovereign means 18 RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS neither less nor more than 15 rupees. One important result of the closing of the mints is that the rupee is now, like the shilling, a mere token coin, meaning not so much silver but so much gold. Although at present the value of the silver in a rupee is v^^orth only about 10 pence, the rupee coin is worth in gold 16 pence — that is, one-fifteenth of a sovereign's weight of gold. For the last eleven years rupee prices have been really gold prices. Before 1899, however, it was not so, and the London purchaser of wheat in the Punjab had to make allowance for the fluctuations of exchange, and calculate how many sovereigns he would have to pay to buy wheat in the Punjab at the varying rate of exchange of the day. I have therefore, in Appendix V. and Diagram II., shown what was the gold price of wheat in the Punjab in each year in shillings per quarter, by w^orking out for each year the gold equivalent of the rupee price at the rate of exchange of the day. It will be noticed that the rise in the price of wheat in the Punjab, when measured in gold, is not nearly so great as when measured in silver. I have shown that when we compare the average of the rupee prices of the eighteen years ending 1890 with the average for the last nineteen years, wheat shows a rise of 34 percent. ; but, if we make the same comparison as regards gold prices, we find that the average price of wheat in the Punjab is for the former period 20 shillings a quarter, and for the latter period 21"9 shillings a quarter, a rise of only 9J per cent. The rise in the rupee price is of more practical importance to the Punjab producer and consumer, but it is the cost in gold of wheat in the Punjab that interests the London purchaser. Another important item in his calculations is the cost of trans- porting wheat from the Punjab to London. Amritsar, one of the largest and most central grain markets in the Punjab, is 816 miles from Karachi ; and the railway freight for grain from Amritsar to Karachi is at present 10 J annas per maund— that is, 5'2 shillings a quarter. Within the last five years freights from Karachi to the United Kingdom have fluctuated between 10 and 20 shillings per ton of 18 cwt., and the present quotation is 15 shillings for 18 cwt.— that is, 3"6 shillings per quarter ; so that the total cost of transport of wheat from Amritsar to London is at present about 9 shillings a quarter. Thus, allowing for insurance and other charges, and for profit, one would expect that the London purchaser, whenever he finds that wheat is selling in the Punjab at more than, say, 12 shillings a quarter below what he might get for it in London, would buy wheat in the Punjab for IN THE PUNJAB 19 export to Europe, until the price in the Punjab rose to within that margin. As a matter of fact, in all the large grain markets of the Punjab, there are agents of exporting firms who study the world's prices of wheat, and buy whenever they think export will be profitable ; and since 1898, when exchange became stable, there has only once been a difference of more than 10 shillings a quarter between Punjab prices and the London price of British wheat. The difference has often been less than this, because the Punjab prices I have given are retail prices, and although they do not in India vary very much from wholesale prices, yet large quantities of grain, such as are bought for export, can be pur- chased at considerably below the retail price of the day ; because Punjab wheat sells in the London market at better prices than British-grown wheat (for instance, during the past year, when the average London price of British wheat was 36'9 shillings per quarter, the price in London of Punjab wheat varied between 37 and 45 shillings per quarter) ; because grain for export is generally bought before or at harvest time, when its price is lower than the average for the year ; and because bad harvests in India raise the local prices until it does not pay to export. For instance, in the famine year 1897 the average price of wheat in the Punjab was 29'6 shillings a quarter, while in London it was 30 shillings a quarter; again, in the dry year 1900, it was 26"8 shillings a quarter in the Punjab and 26'9 in London ; and in 1908, a year of widespread drought in Northern India, it was actually dearer in the Punjab than in London, the Punjab average price being 33"5 shillings a quarter, and the London average price 32' 1. In such a year, the amount exported to Europe falls to a minimum, and the grain is diverted to those parts of India which are suffering from scarcity, as in that year it went by the train- load to the famine-stricken districts of the United Provinces. On the average of the eighteen years ending 1890, the differ- ence between the gold prices of wheat in the Punjab and in London was 22 shillings a quarter ; on the average of the last nineteen years it has been only 7 shillings a quarter. In the earlier period freights were much higher and trade less active, and the price of wheat in the Punjab depended mainly on the demand in India itself. But nowadays, except in years of scarcity in India, the price of wheat in the Punjab depends mainly on its price in the world's markets. It is proverbially dangerous to prophesy, but if I may venture to make a guess at the future, it seems probable that the course of prices will be somewhat as follows. At present Punjab wheat is selling in the London market at 40 20 RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS shillings a quarter, and so long as it remains near that figure, which it seems likely to do for some months to come, it will pay to buy wheat in the Punjab at about 28 shillings a quarter, or 3 J rupees per maund, and export it to London. In December last the wholesale price of wheat at the important market, of Lyallpur was exactly this figure, 3^ rupees per maund. There is every prospect of a bumper wheat crop in Northern India, but yet the price of wheat in the Punjab is not likely, for some months to come, to fall much below this export price. On the other hand, we may expect a continuous fall in the prices of the inferior food- grains, which are not exported in any quantity, and a good year for both producers and the poorer classes of consumers in the Punjab. Looking farther ahead, it seems probable that for some years to come the world's demand for wheat will increase almost as fast as the supply : the price of Punjab wheat in London is not likely to fall much below 35 shillings a quarter; and therefore, allowing for years of local scarcity, the average retail price of wheat in the Punjab markets is not likely to fall much below 24 shillings a quarter^that is 3 rupees a maund, or 50 per cent, above the average rupee price of twenty years ago. The com- paratively high price of wheat will lead to an increase in its cultivation at the cost of the inferior grains, and this increase will also be encouraged by the completion of the new canals now under construction ; and the Punjab will become, more than ever, a wheat-growing province. The average area under wheat, which already exceeds 8 million acres, is likely soon to be well over 10 million acres — that is, more than a third of the total area under all crops ; and the amount of wheat available for export is likely to go on steadily increasing, to the great advantage of the producer. Live-Stock. A careful census of the live-stock of the 29 British districts was taken last February, and the following statement gives the results as compared with those returned for the same area twenty- two years ago. Livk-Stock in the Punjab (29 British Districts), in thousands. In 1886-7. In 1909. Increase per cent Horned cattle ... 10,711 14,317 34 Horses and ponies 232 358 54 Mules and donkeys 400 621 55 Sheej) and goats 5,739 8,675 51 Carts 192 288 50 rioughs at work 1,881 2,169 15 IN THE PUNJAB 21 There has been a great increase in numbers under every head. There has also been a marked improvement in the average quality. Formerly it was common to find large herds of wretched cattle roaming the prairie wastes, many of which died of starvation when the rains failed. Now tlic spread of cultivation and irrigation has provided much greater and more secure supplies of fodder, a larger proportion of the cattle are stall-fed, and the mortality from starvation in bad years has been greatly reduced. Especially marked is the increase in the number of valuable buffalo-cows, whose milk is rich in butter. Prices of stock, too, have gone up at least 30 per cent., and the present value of the live-stock of the Province must 'be more than £30,000,000 sterling, probably double what it was a quarter of a century ago. There is a very large income from the profits of live-stock in butter, young animals, wool, skins, and hire of carriage. Eights in the Land, Of the whole population of the Punjab, 88| per cent, live in villages and only 11 J per cent, in towns ; so that the interests of the rural population are of much more importance than those of the urban population. It may be pointed out that, unlike Western countries, there is no marked tendency for the population to drift from the villages into the towns, for the proportion of rural to total population at the last three censuses has been 87*1, 88'4, and again 88'4; the fact being that agriculture has been so pros- perous that there is little temptation for the rural population to forsake it for a town life. The townspeople have prospered greatly, but I will deal chiefly with the changes which have affected the more important agricultural classes. When the British Government first assumed control of the Punjab sixty years ago, they found that their predecessors, the Sikh rulers, had imposed a crushing taxation on the land, which absorbed almost all the profits of cultivation. Practically the State was the universal landlord, exacting a full rent from the cultivator, and exercising almost all the rights of an absolute proprietor. The first thing the British revenue officers did was to reduce the land revenue demand, so as to leave some margin of profit to the cultivator ; the next was to define private rights in the land, so as to secure every man in the possession of such rights as he had. Over a great part of the Province the people were found living in villages and cultivating the surrounding land, D 22 RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS and the first step in the definition of rights was to define the boundaries between the lands attached to the different villages, map the township area, and declare that that area was reserved for the village community. Inside the village community it was generally found that there was a body of men, usually related to each other, and often tracing their descent from tKe traditional founder of the village , who were acknowledged to possess superior rights to the land. These were declared by Government to be the proprietors, subject always to the payment of land revenue, of all the land within the township boundaries, whether cultivated or waste. Under them were the tenants, usually few in number and of an inferior class, who cultivated some of the land under the proprietors, and paid them rent for it. The other members of the village community were the shopkeepers, artisans, and menial labourers, who in those days seldom possessed any rights in land, except the customary right of grazing their cattle in the village waste or collecting firewood and other jungle produce from it. Every field was measured and mapped, and a record was made of the possession and rights of each individual proprietor or tenant. Any large block of waste land, over which no individual or village community could establish a claim , was declared to be at the absolute disposal of the State, and left to be utilised for the time as a grazing ground by the pastoral tribes who roamed over it with their cattle, camels, sheep, and goats. It is these large areas of State-owned waste lands which have recently been made culturable by the construction of great canals, and have been so successfully colonised. I have recently given some account of the colonisation operations, and need only repeat that during the last twenty years about 2J- million acres of this waste land have been rendered irrigable and brought under the plough, and about a million people, or a twentieth of the whole population of the province, have migrated from their old homes in the more congested districts, and settled down in the new country in great comfort and prosperity. The map and record of rights of each of the 33,000 townships in the Province are carefully revised every twenty or thirty years , and are kept up to date from year to year by an army of 8,000 village accountants. There are altogether 40 million separate fields and 9 million separate holdings, and anyone who wishes can for a few pence obtain a map and particulars of any one of these fields and holdings. For accuracy, cheapness, and up-to-dateness of the record of rights in the land there are few countries in the world which can compare with the Punjab. This system of land IN THE PUNJAB 23 record confers on the smallest peasant the benefits of security of title, freedom from disputes, and cheapness of transfer, which add greatly to the value of his land and to his peace of mind. In Appendix Vll. I have quoted the figures showing how the land was occupied in 1889 and in 1907. It will be seen that in the latter year, of the 27 million acres of land under tillage, 13 million acres, or nearly half, were cultivated by the owners of the land themselves, 2 J million acres were cultivated by tenants with a right of occupancy — that is, tenants protected by law from arbitrary eviction or enhancement of rent, and 11 J million acres by tenants-at-will. This latter class of tenant, although the law requires that he shall be given due notice of eviction and be paid compensation for permanent improvements made by him on his holding, is left to fix his rent by agreement with his landlord, and these rents, which used to be determined largely by custom, are now determined mainly by the law of supply and demand. On the one side the great rise of prices and activity of trade in recent years has been in favour of the landlord, and on the other the rapid increase of cultivation and irrigation has led to a greater demand for tenants, while the recent loss of population has lessened the supply, and at present tenants are at a premium and are not likely to agree to anything above a fair competition rent. It will be noticed that of the whole area held by tenants-at-will, 8 million acres, or 69 per cent., pay rent in kind; that is, the landlord takes as rent a fixed fraction of the actual crop of each harvest. In 1889 the proportion of such land paying rent in kind was only 62 per cent., so that this mode of taking rent, which has the merit of making the landlord and tenant share in the pros- perity or adversity of the year, is growing in favour. This form of rent is more influenced by custom than are cash rents, but is by no means unaffected by competition. The nominal fraction of the produce which is the landlord's due may remain the same, but the net share he actually receives as rent may be less or more , according to the leniency or strictness with which he divides the crop, or to the advances he makes to his tenant for seed or manure, or to the extra fractions he exacts in the name of cesses for this or that purpose, or to the share he makes the tenant pay of the land revenue or water-rates. All these matters are carefully inquired into when an assessment of the land revenue is paid, and it is found that the actual share of the crop taken by the landlord varies according to the fertility of the soil and the supply of tenants, much in the same way as cash rents do. On about one- third of the total area paying rent in kind throughout the Province D 2 J^ 24 RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS the tenant pays the landlord as rent half the gross produce. On inferior land or in sparsely populated country common rates paid as rent are two-fifths, one-third, or one-fourth of the gross pro- duce ; and I have known rents as low as one-fifth. On the whole, notwithstanding the dearth of tenants, the share of the gross produce taken by the landlord as rent shows a tendency to rise. The area held by tenants-at-will paying cash rents not fixed in terms of the land revenue has increased from 2^ million acres in 1889 to 2| million acres in 1907, when it was 24 per cent, of the whole area held by tenants-at-will. These cash rents have risen very rapidly in recent years, owing partly to the rise of prices and the extension of irrigation, but mainly, I think, owing to the growth of the spirit of competition and the stronger position of the land-owners, due to the excellence of the record of rights and their better knowledge of the law. Tenancy legislation in the Punjab has not been nearly so much in favour of the tenant as in some other provinces of India, because there we have to legislate not so much for a large body of helpless tenants under rich and sometimes unscrupulous landlords, as for the peasant or yeoman, who lets his surplus land to his neighbour and may at any time want it back to cultivate himself. On the whole, the relations between landlords and tenants are satisfactory, there is comparatively little litigation between them, and the tenants as a body are contented and prosperous, notwithstanding the rise of rents. The average incidence of cash rents, which was 1"8 rupees per acre in 1880, rose to 2'4 rupees per acre in 1890, and 4*4 rupees (that is, nearly 6 shillings) per acre in 1900, and must be higher now. Considerable areas of good irrigated land pay a cash rent of as much as 10 shillings an acre, and good unirrigated land as much as 4 shillings an acre ; but the rates, of course, vary with the fertility of the soil, and there are large areas of poor land paying as rent 1 shilling an acre or less. On comparing the statistics for 1889 with those for 1907 it will be seen that the number of holdings has increased from 6 million to over 9 million, and that while the number of holdings cultivated by the owners themselves has increased from 2,720,000 to 3,499,000, owing no doubt to increase of population and sub- division of holdings, the area cultivated by the owners themselves has decreased from 14 J to less than 13 million acres, and the average area cultivated in an owner's holding has decreased from 5*4 acres to 3" 7. The number of holdings of tenants-at-will has increased from 2^ to 4^ million, and the area cultivated by them from 7-^ to 11 J million acres, so that the average "area of a tenant's »^ IN THE PUNJAB 25 liolding has decreased from 3*1 to 2"7 acres. Now, these figures require some explanation, and must not be taken as they stand; \ more especially, it must not be understood that the area cultivated I per individual owner or per individual tenant is so small as this. Many owners cultivate land belonging to themselves alone, other land belonging to themselves and otliers jointly, and other land belonging to the whole village community, and in such a case their holdings would come into the reckoning more than once. Again, many tenants cultivate land belonging to different owners, and would be counted more than once in the total number of holdings. So that the actual number of owners and of tenants is much less than the number of holdings, and the true average size of a holding per owner or per tenant is much larger than the figures given above would indicate. The size of holdings varies very greatly according to the fertility of the soil and the means of irrigation. (For instance, in the Eohtak Tahsil, not far from Dehli, now under reassessment, it is found that the average area of holdings cultivated by owners is less than 4 acres in the fertile canal-irrigated tract, and more than 10 acres in the sandy unirrigated tract not many miles away.) For the whole Punjab I would guess roughly that the arithmetical averages would be for the cultivated area, leaving out of account the very large area of uncultivated land, something like the following : Average area owned per owner, 15 acres ; average area cultivated by owners, per owner, 7 acres ; average area cultivated by tenants, per tenant, 5 acres. There are a certain number of large estates, cultivated almost entirely by tenants, and the figures for these swell the averages. On the other hand, there are a large number of very small ownership holdings, of less than two acres. The typical peasant proprietor of the Punjab however may be taken to be the man owning from two to ten cultivated acres, J which he works himself with his family and cattle, and with the occasional help of his fellow- villagers. According to the census returns of 1901, of the total popula- tion of 20 millions, the number of owners of land (including the canal colonists, who have a permanent right to their holdings, and no landlord over them but the State) and of their families is 6,788,000, or almost exactly one-third of the whole population ; and the number of tenants and their families is 3,771,000, or f more than a sixth of the whole population. Between them these two classes make up more than half the total population. The rent-receiving landlords who do not cultivate land themselves, together with their families, are only 300,000 in number, and 26 RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 6 J million belong to families who both own and cultivate land. It will thus be seen how preponderant in the Punjab are the interests of the owners and tenants of agricultural land, and especially of the peasant proprietors , who cultivate the land owned by themselves. In my recent paper read to the Koyal Society of Arts I estimated the number of persons owning agricultural land at about 2 millions, but I think we must follow the census figures, and allow at least four persons to a family ; so that the number of heads of families, who are the actual owners of the land, is j more likely to be about 1^ million. It would not be difficult to collect fairly accurate figures showing what is the actual number of persons who own rights in the land, and I trust a suggestion I recently made that these statistics should be collected will soon be carried out. On the same basis of four persons to a family, the census figures would make the number of tenants having a right of occupancy about 250,000, and as 2,368,000 acres are held with a right of occupancy, the average holding of such a tenant appears to be about nine acres. This seems large compared with my estimate of seven acres as the average area cultivated by a peasant proprietor ; but the large holdings of poor land held with a right of occupancy in the south of the Province unduly swell the average of this class of holdings. Similarly it would appear that the actual number of heads of families, who do not own land I or hold land with a right of occupancy , but are merely tenants-at- ! will, is about 700,000. We cannot apply this figure to the total area of llj million acres held by cultivators as tenants at the will of the land-owner, because a very large number of persons who own land of their own or possess holdings with a right of occu- pancy also cultivate land belonging to other persons, and so far as that land is concerned appear in these statistics of cultivating occupancy as tenants-at-will, beside those tenants who own no land of their own and are nothing but tenants-at-will. A comparison of the statistics for cultivating occupancy for 1907 with those for 1889 brings out certain tendencies which have been marked in the Punjab for a long series of years. The average area cultivated by an owner himself has shown a tendency to ' decrease, and so has the average area cultivated by a tenant, while the total area cultivated by tenants-at-will has increased very rapidly. To some extent this change was due to the process by which comparatively wealthy village shopkeepers, traders, pro- fessional men, and large land-owners were buying up the land of the smaller or less thrifty peasants and letting it at full rents to tenants-at-will— a process which has been stopped by the w IN THE rUNJAB 27 passing of the Alienation of Land Act in 1901, so far as regards the acquisition of land by tlie classes who had no hereditary connection with agriculture. But this was not the only, or the main reason of the tendency. One reason was the spread of irrigation, as, acre for acre, irrigated cultivation is both more productive and more laborious than unirrigated cul- tivation ; and the land-owner to whose land irrigation was extended, whether from a canal or from a well, found I that his time would be fully occupied by the cultivation I of a smaller portion of his holding than before, and that a I smaller area would give him a larger produce than before, so ' that he found it profitable to contract his own cultivation and to let his surplus land to some other cultivator as his tenant-at- will. On the other hand, the great rise in the prices of agricultural produce, and the consequent increase in the profits of cultivation, made those peasant proprietors wdio had not enough land of their own to employ all their energies, those tenants whose holdings were small, and those artisans and labourers who were ambitious, as many of them are, to have fields to cultivate, very willing to take the surplus lands of the land-owners as tenants paying a full rent. Thus the large area brought under cultivation in recent I years has chiefly been occupied by persons who hold it as tenants- 1 at-will, and the peasant proprietors, while retaining enough land under their own cultivation to employ fully their own energies and resources, also enjoy a greatly increased rent from their surplus land. The result is that the profits of agriculture have been spread more equally over a much larger number of culti- vators, and the average prosperity of the whole body of agricul- turists, proprietors, tenants, and labourers has been greatly increased. At the same time the energies and growing capital of individuals have been more fully employed, cultivation has become more intensive, and the average amount of produce, per acre or per individual cultivator, has steadily increased. Another change of great importance to the efficiency of agri- culture has been taking place with increasing rapidity in recent years. I mean the partition of holdings. By almost universal ^ custom among the agricultural castes of the Punjab, land is I inherited by all the sons equally, so that, if a peasant dies leaving, say, four sons, they succeed jointly to his holding in four equal shares. What usually happens is that they continue for some time to cultivate the land jointly and share its produce, as they did in their father's life-time. Then disputes or jealousies may arise, and the joint ownership is found irksome, and recourse is 28 RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS had to partition, the result of which is that each shareholder, instead of having a share in a joint holding, has now certain fields in his exclusive possession and ownership, and can do with them what he likes, without interference by the other shareholders. The partition proceedings are cheap and easy, and are carried out as far as possible in the village itself and in the presence of all parties interested. In the early years of our rule such partitions were comparatively uncommon ; holdings were held joint for generations, and large areas of land were held in joint ownership by numerous shareholders in very complicated shares. In such cases the strong or shrewd shareholder often managed to possess himself of a larger share of the joint holding or of its produce than he was entitled to, and the weaker shareholders, after acquiescing for a time, felt compelled to apply for partition as the only means by which thoy could obtain possession of their fair share. The growing value of land and its produce also made them more anxious to obtain separate possession of their portion, that they might secure its profits to themselves ; and the growth of the spirit of individual liberty , which has been greatly fostered by our laws and policy, encouraged many to shake off the trammels of custom and get rid of the burden imposed upon them by regard for the rights and wishes of the other shareholders. This was especially the case with the more enterprising and intelligent among them. So long as the holding remained joint, such a man had to carry on his cultivation in accordance with time-honoured custom, and could not easily introduce changes not approved by his fellows, or make improvements on the fields he cultivated without running the risk that at some future partition those fields might be allotted to some other shareholder. When he has obtained by partition separate ownership of certain fields, he can safely improve them, manure them, and sow them at the time he pleases, or with the crop he pleases, secure in the knowledge that he will retain for himself the whole profits of his industry, intelligence, and expenditure of capital. Partition of holdings has ji thus given a great impulse to agricultural improvement; and it is satisfactory to find how general has been the demand for partition. On the average of the four years ending 1907-8, the number of such cases annually decided was 8,000, involving the partition of 600,000 acres of land, worth £'2,000,000 sterling. Like the enclosure proceedings which formed such an im- portant feature in the agricultural history of the eighteenth century in England, these partitions, while highly advantageous to the owners of the land, have not been carried out without IN THE PUNJAB 29 some hardship to the other members of the village communities. When a large area of waste land was owned in common by the whole proprietary body, it w'as usual for the shopkeepers, artisans, and menial labourers resident in the village to graze their cattle on it and to collect firewood from it, either free of charge or on payment of a nominal sum to the proprietary body. When the village common is partitioned and each owner is put in separate possession of his own portion of it, he generally brings it under cultivation, or puts a hedge or ditch round it, and retains all the produce to himself. The grazing-ground of the other residents of the village is thus curtailed, and their interests so far suffer. It is usual for the official in charge of the proceedings to insist on the retention of a portion of the common as a general grazing- ground, so as to minimise this hardship to the non-proprietors; but it is generally recognised that the interests of agriculture come first, and that the acknowledged owners of the land have a prior claim to possession of it ; and it must be remembered that in most cases of the sort the land is not partitioned among a few large land-owners, but among a considerable body of peasant proprietors, and that the increase of cultivation, which generally follows the partition of the common waste, adds to the total produce of the township, gives more employment to all classes, and increases the prosperity of the whole village community. Another change which is taking place also reminds one of the English enclosures, and may be expected to have a similar effect in encouraging the improvement of agriculture. In the typical Punjab township only the more valuable fields near the village are surrounded by walls or hedges to protect the crops and keep out the cattle. The whole of the rest of the area, sometimes thousands of acres in extent, consists of open, unenclosed fields, over which, after the crops have been cut, the cattle roam at pleasure. The land is not uniform in character, and from time immemorial, whenever a partition took place, each shareholder endeavoured to obtain a bit of land of each different quality, so as to be rendered more secure against the vicissitudes of season, which affects the different blocks of land differently according to their soil or position. The consequence is that the typical peasant's holding consists not of a continuous plot of land all in one place, but of a field here and a field there, scattered over the whole area of the township, often a mile or more apart. This leads to a great waste of time in going from one field to another, and makes it difficult for the peasant to protect) his crops, or cultivate them at different times or in different ways from those 30 RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPJMENTS adopted by his neighbours ; and when an enterprising peasant proprietor wishes to make a well, or embank his fields, or try a new crop, or alter his method of cultivation, he finds this scattered open-field system a great obstacle in his way. A move- ment is therefore growing up for consolidation of holdings by exchange of isolated fields, so that the individual peasant may have as much as possible of his holding in one continuous block, which he can enclose within a ring-fence and treat as he pleases. So far this process has been entirely voluntary, but I am inclined to think that the time will soon come when it will be recognised as so necessary to the progress of agricultural improvement as to justify and require the State to aid in it by compelling an exchange of fields on fair terms, when the majority of the land-owners in a village desire it on reasonable grounds. Kecently, in hundreds of townships into which canal irrigation has been introduced , the peasant proprietors have unanimously agreed to give up their old, crooked field boundaries and accept new straight boundaries for their holdings, so as to facilitate the application of the water to the land ; and the advantages of such a change are so great that the movement is likely to grow, and the more intelligent of the peasants are likely to demand a similar exchange of fields and straightening of boundaries. The Land Eevenue and Canal Charges. All land in India has from time immemorial been liable to pay a share of its produce to the ruler for the time being. This State's share we now call "land revenue." The share taken has varied greatly from one period to another ; but when the Punjab came under British rule, it must on the average have absorbed at least one-third of the gross produce of the agricultural land of the Province. It was usually taken in the form of an actual share of the produce, or of the money value of the share at current prices, and so varied according to the outturn of the harvests. The first British officers reduced the demand, and fixed it in rupees for a term of years. It was revised from time to time, and still further reduced, and the term of years lengthened, until the usual form of land revenue assessment came to be a sum, fixed in rupees, for each township, much below the average realisations of the Sikhs, and not liable to enhancement for a term of twenty years, however much the cultivation and produce of the township might increase in the interval. At the end of the IN THE PUNJAB 31 twenty years' term the circumstances of each township are care- fully investigated, and the assessment due from it for the next twenty years revised with regard to the existing circumstances of the township and current prices. At first the general standard of assessment was, roughly, one-sixth of the gross produce, or about half the share taken by the Sikh Government ; but for the last forty years the basis of assessment has been, not the gross produce, but the net profits of cultivation, as shown by the rent paid for the land by tenants, whether in cash or kind, or where the land is cultivated by the owner himself, by its renting value ; and the maximum limit of the assessment has been, and is now, half this renting value. As a matter of fact, the actual assessment has not in recent years kept pace with the rise of prices, and the present average land revenue assessment of about 1 rupee, or about 16 pence, per cultivated acre is much the same as it has been for the last thirty years, although prices have gone up so much, and although the average produce of the land per acre is greater, owing to the extension of irrigation. In 1889 the average assess- ment was just under 1 rupee per cultivated acre, and as for the ten years ending 1890 the average price of the maund of 82 f lb. of wheat was 2"09 rupees, it took 40 lb. of wheat to pay the land revenue of an average acre ; on the average of the last nine years the price of a maund of wheat was 2"89 rupees, so that it took only 29 lb. weight to pay the present average land revenue per acre ; and the true incidence of the land revenue, measured in wheat, has fallen at least in that proportion, 40 to 29, in the last twenty years. As the average produce of wheat per sown acre is 13 bushels, or 780 lb., it now only takes 4 per cent, of the gross produce of an average acre of wheat to pay the land revenue due on the land. For all crops taken together I have estimated that the present average value of the annual gross produce of the cultivated land of the Province is about £32,000,000 sterling. To this has to be added the produce from the live-stock, firewood, timber, and other products of the uncultivated areas belonging to villages, which must be worth several millions per annum. So that the present land revenue assessment of the Punjab is well below one-sixteenth of the annual value of the present gross produce of the land in possession of private individuals, instead of the one-third taken by the Sikh Government sixty years ago. So cautious are the estimates of Settlement officers, and so reluctant is the Govern- ment to make large and sudden enhancements of the assessment levied on townships, that the present land revenue of the Province, instead of approaching the theoretical maximum of one-half the 32 RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS net profits or renting value of the land, must be only about one- fourth of that renting value. Besides the land revenue, the owner of land has also to pay local rates, which within the last six years have been reduced from about 22 per cent, to 13 J per cent, of the land revenue demand : of this 5 per cent, goes to the village headman and 8^ per cent, to the District Board — the County Council of the district. On average land paying 16 pence per acre, the local rates amount to about 2 pence per acre, making the whole compulsory levy of land revenue and rates 18 pence per acre. Subject to this charge, the peasant proprietor is, so far as the State is concerned, practically absolute owner of his holding. There is another important charge which has to be paid out of the produce of the crops. The great canals, which have been constructed at the expense of the State — that is, of the general body of Indian taxpayers — cost over d£10,000,000 sterling, and interest has to be paid on this borrowed money. Government has also to spend large sums on clearance and maintenance, and to keep up an enormous staff to watch over the working of the canals, the fair distribution of the water to each of millions of fields, and the assessment of the charges due for the water. These charges are assessed on the area actually irrigated, at rates per acre, fixed for each kind of crop and based on the estimated value of the water to the cultivator ; but they are carefully kept well below its true value, as is shown by the keen competition there is for canal water, especially in dry seasons. The total amount realised as the price of canal water in 1907-8 was £1,350,000, or about 4 shillings per acre irrigated. This charge stands on quite a different footing from the land revenue, which, once it has been fixed for a term of years, is a compulsory charge, while each cultivator is free to take the canal water or not as he pleases, and only pays water-rates on the area he chooses to irrigate. Still, the amount has to be paid out of the produce of the crops, and if we add it to the land revenue and local rates, we find that the State realises altogether from the crops about £'3,600,000 per annum, or just about 10 per cent, of the average annual value of the gross agricultural and pastoral produce. Value of Land. As the share of the net profits of cultivation left to the land- owner, after deduction of canal charges, land revenue, and local rates, has rapidly increased, owing to the rise of prices and the IN THE PUNJAB 33 progressive leniency in the pitch of the land revenue demand, the selling price of his rights in the land has naturally risen with equal rapidity. Everyone — peasant, largo landlord, shopkeeper, trader, lawyer, and even artisan or labourer — who has managed to accumulate any capital, has been keen to buy land ; and as the prosperity of recent years has led to a great accumulation of savings by all classes, the effective demand for land has been great, and any land-owner willing to sell has been able to secure a high and rising price for his rights of ownership. Among a million and a half of land-owners, there are always a considerable number who are driven by misfortune or improvidence to sell part of their holdings, or tempted by high prices to dispose of their surplus land instead of letting it, and although the Alienation of Land Act has achieved its object of stopping the purchase of the peasants' land by members of the non-agricultural classes, it leaves the hereditary agriculturists free to buy and sell land among themselves. On the average of the two years ending 1907-8 the number of sales was 43,000 per annum, the cultivated area sold 128,000 acres, with an assessment of 120,000 rupees, or £8,000, and the price paid 12,500,000 rupees, or £830,000; so that the average price per cultivated acre was 98 rupees, or £6 10s., and equalled 104 times the land revenue assessed upon the land. The bulk of the transactions are between peasants, and for small areas, as is shown by the fact that the average area sold in each transac- tion w-as only three cultivated acres. Now that sales to the shopkeeper are forbidden, the price returned is not to any serious extent a fictitious one , but in most cases represents the actual cash that has passed between the parties ; and seeing that the total area transferred is so large, it may be taken as representing approxi- mately the price which the average peasant could obtain for average land, if he chose to sell it.-^ If we apply the average price of £6 10s. to the 28 million cultivated acres in the Province, we get £182,000,000 as the selling value of all the cultivated land. I think therefore that, making all allowances, it is safe to say that the million and a half of men who own the cultivated land of the Province possess, in that land alone, a property which is at \ present worth in the market more than £150,000,000 sterling, or \ about £100 per ow^ner on the average. Twenty years ago the average sale price per cultivated acre was only 38 rupees, or forty-one times the land revenue assessment on the land sold : the rupee was worth then, as now, about 16 pence, and the ^ I notice that the present average vahie of occupied farm land in the Dominion ot Canada is estimated at about £8 per acre, or not much above the Punjab price. 34 RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS cultivated area was only 23 million acres ; so that a similar calculation gives the total value of the land at that time as less I than £60,000,000 sterling. It appears, therefore, that in the last /twenty years the market value of the land has about trebled, and I that it is worth to its owners something like £100,000,000 sterling more than it was a generation ago. These figures, discount them as we may, show how enormous has been the recent increase in the prosperity of the large and important land-owning class. A further proof of this prosperity is the rapidity with which the owners of land are redeeming their land from mortgage. In 1903-4 the cultivated area under mortgage was 3 ,869 ,000 acres ; in 1907-8 it had been reduced to 3,584,000 acres; and the mort- gages are being taken up, not so much as formerly by the shop- keeping and professional classes, but by the hereditary land- owning classes themselves. In those four years members of the I agricultural tribes redeemed from mortgage 1,019,000 acres, and ' although they mortgaged 844,000 acres, 783,000 acres of this area were mortgaged to members of the agricultural tribes themselves ; so that the area of peasants' land held on mortgage by non- agriculturists is rapidly decreasing. Thus the general effect of the Alienation of Land Act and of all those numerous sales and mort- gages is that no longer is the land of the peasants passing into the hands of traders and town-dwellers, but the more thrifty among the peasants themselves are extending their holdings at the cost of the less thrifty, and in this respect also the efficiency of agriculture is being steadily improved, without any lowering of the status of the agricultural classes as a whole. Interest and Credit. It is somewhat surprising that, with all the accumulation of capital that has taken place in the last twenty years, and indeed in the last fifty or sixty years, the rate of interest charged on ordinary loans remains very high. For instance, the State itself and the private railway companies, have spent in the Province something like £30,000,000 on railways and £10,000,000 on canals, almost all borrowed from outside, and there also has been a very large amount of saving. Much of the accumulated capital, however, has been sunk in improvement of the land both in the shape of large public works and of numerous small private works such as wells and embankments, and is accounted for by the rise in the market value of the land. Much has been secured IN THE PUNJAB 35 by the labouring classes in the rise of wages, and much has been utilised by all classes in improving their standard of living. They have more and better food, clotlies, houses, agricultural imple- ments, cattle, household utensils. Much has been put away by the people in the form of hoards or ornaments of gold or silver. After an inquiry into the prevalent rates of interest, I have come to the conclusion that, on the average, the ordinary small peasant has to pay something like 20 per cent, per annum for loans. The actual rates charged vary very much — say, from 12 per cent, to 50 or more — but perhaps the commonest rates are 18 and 27 per cent, per annum. Among the reasons for these high rates are that the peasant's borrowings are mainly made in hard times, when his need is urgent, and he is prepared to agree to almost any terms in order to get money ; that he is generally ignorant and illiterate, and often thriftless, so that he is at the mercy of his more astute creditor, the village shopkeeper; that his chief security, besides his land, with which he is now more unwilling than ever to part, is his crops, which are still, even on irrigated lands, subject to great vicissitudes of season ; and that the procedure of the Civil Courts, though recently greatly improved, is still too complicated for the petty disputes of peasants and shopkeepers, and although it is not difficult for a creditor, at the cost of some money and trouble , to get a decree , it is by no means easy for him to execute it, so that the expense of litigation and the lender's fear of losing part of his capital keep up the general rate of interest. The Government have taken measures to improve this state of matters. One-sixth of the land revenue and the whole of the large sum levied as the price of the canal water are now assessed on the crops actually harvested, and realised only when the cul- tivator has produce in his hands from which to pay them. The old policy of suspending the fixed land revenue demand in years of bad harvest has been made much more liberal, and in the dry year 1907-8 £330,000, or nearly one-fifth of the whole fixed land revenue demand, was suspended, to be realised only when a good harvest made it easy for the peasant to pay it. State money is freely advanced to land-owners at 65 per cent, for land im- provements, and in bad seasons free of interest for the purchase of seed and fodder, and the loan is recovered by easy instalments in years of good harvest. The amount at present out on loan in this way is about £'200,000, and I think myself it might well be increased to £1,000,000. Much is to be hoped for from the recently started co-operative movement, which has been fostered by Government by the passing of a special Act and by the 36 RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS appointment of a Kegistrar, who, assisted by a competent staff, preaches the benefits of co-operation to the peasants, advises them, and audits their accounts free of charge. The number of co-operative societies is rapidly increasing. Last year there were in the Province 316, with 23,000 members, and assets worth ^960,000, of which the members themselves had subscribed .£40,000. The societies charge their borrowing members about 9 per cent., and much success has already been attained in a number of villages in freeing the poorer members from the crush- ing burden of old debts at much higher rates of interest. Many of the leading peasants, who manage these little banks themselves, are keen and careful managers, and as the societies have recently come successfully through a bad year, the movement is likely to spread rapidly, and, by a reduction in the rate of interest and the encouragement of a spirit of thrift and co-operation, to confer immense benefits on the poorer classes of the peasantry. The Laboueing Classes. In the Punjab, where the land is almost entirely cultivated by small peasant proprietors or tenants, who do most of the field-w^ork themselves, and where large industries are only in their infancy, the classes of landless labourer and artisan are of little importance in comparison with the position they hold in such a country as England. In 1901 the number of agricultural labourers and their families was returned as less than 2 per cent, of the total population, the other unskilled labourers as 3^ per cent., the number of weavers as 6 per cent., and the number of leather- workers as 3 per cent. — and 3 per cent, of the population were returned as subsisting by mendicancy^a tribute to the charity for which Indians of all classes are distinguished. It is these poorer classes, however, who are most helpless and who soonest succumb to bad times; and so long as they are well off, there cannot be much doubt as to the general prosperity of the country. It is desirable therefore to consider how they, and especially how the unskilled labourers, have fared in recent years. The figures for wages available for past years are the arith- metical averages of the rates reported as prevalent in each of the 29 districts of the Province, and although only approximate, are sufficient to give a general idea of the rise of wages. I have quoted them as they stand in Appendix VI. and in Diagram III., from which it will be seen that the rates reported as the average IN THE PUNJAB 37 monthly wages in rupees of agricultural labourers for the Province iiave on the whole risen fairly steadily during the last thirty- seven years, and that there has been a very extraordinary rise during the last four years, the average for which is practically 10 rupees a month against a little more than 5 rupees in the early years of the series : that is, at present an ordinary agricul- tural labourer can earn nearly twice as many rupees a month as he could thirty-seven years ago. If we take the arithmetical averages for different periods, we find that for the eighteen years ending 1890 the wages of the agricultural labourer averaged 6*1 rupees, and for the last nineteen years 7'6 rupees, an increase of 25 per cent, over the average for the previous period, but if we take the average for the last four years, it is 9'9 rupees, an in- crease of 62 per cent, over the average of twenty years ago. I have given also the figures for the daily and monthly wages paid for unskilled labour in the railway workshops at Lahore, the capital of the Province. These figures are much more trustworthy than the others, as they represent rates actually paid, but they reflect the demand and supply of labour in one locality only, and not for the whole Province. According to these figures, the average monthly wages of unskilled labour at Lahore were for the first period 5" 4 rupees, for the second period 6'8 rupees, and for the last four years 8" 3 rupees — a rise of 26 per cent, for the second period over the first, and of 54 per cent, in the last four years, compared with thirty years ago. So that these figures for Lahore corroborate to some extent those for the Province gener- ally. Daily wages paid for unskilled labour at the Lahore work- shops were 3 annas thirty-seven years ago, and 5^ annas last year, and the averages for the different periods have been, for the first eighteen years 3"2 annas, for the last nineteen years 4'2 annas, and 5 annas for the last four years. It is more usual, even in the case of agricultural labour, to pay by the day than by the month, and if we take the monthly wages reported for the Province and spread them over twenty-seven working days in the month, we get the following figures for daily wages as the average for the Province : for the three years ending 1875, 3"1 annas; for the eighteen years ending 1890, 3'6 ; for the last nineteen years, 4"5 annas; and for the last four years, 5"9 annas. Broadly speaking, then, it may be said that the average wages of an agricultural labourer in the Punjab, measured in annas, are now nearly double what they were forty years ago, and at least 50 per cent, higher than they were twenty years ago. For the last eleven years the gold value of the anna has been exactly 38 RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 1 penny, so that it may be said that at present, on the average, an agricultural labourer in the Punjab can earn between 5 pence and 6 pence a day. As a matter of fact, the demand for labour varies very much from place to place and according to the seasons ; but it is seldom that a labourer cannot earn at least 4 pence a day by labour in the fields, or in the towns, or on canal, railway, and other public works ; and at harvest time, especially in the irrigated tracts, when very large areas of crops have to be rea^^ed in a short time, his earnings often amount to more than 1 shilling a day. The true measure of the labourer's prosperity is the margin he has left over from his wages after providing for his necessary wants, and we must therefore make allowance for the recent rise in prices of food-grains. As compared with his daily food, his other needs are of little importance. For clothing, the poorer class of agricultural labourer is content with a few garments of coarse cotton and a woollen blanket or two. For shelter, he is happy in a house of sun-dried bricks, made with his own hands and with the help of his neighbours. For fuel, he or his family can always pick up enough sticks or dung to make a fire to bake his scones, or heat his milk, or boil his vegetable broth. He rarely tastes meat or spirits, and his chief luxuries are sugar and tobacco, which are not taxed inside India and are therefore cheap. After long experience on famine relief works, we have found that a man doing a fair daily task of spade-work is kept in good con- dition if he is given a daily wage sufficient to enable him to buy 2 J lb. weight of the cheapest grain; not that he eats so much grain, but this covers also the cost of salt, firewood, and vegetables. Few labourers actually consume more than 2 lb. of flour in a day. In ordinary times this amount of millet or pulse can be bought for 1 penny , and even in famine times it rarely costs more than 1^ pence, so that the unencumbered labourer, who can earn even 4 pence a day, can easily afford himself more than his daily necessary food and save money. I take, however, the case of a man who has to support out of his own earnings a wife and two children. Such a family will not consume more than 2 maunds — that is, 165 lbs. weight of grain in a month, so that the price of 2 maunds of jawar, the cheapest grain, is enough to allow for the monthly expenditure on necessary food for such a family. I have accordingly shown in the statement and diagram the cost of 2 maunds of jaioar at the average price for each year, and the difference between that and the average monthly wage I have called "the margin of comfort," as it represents what the married labourer has over, after providing enough food to keep his family IN THE PUNJAB 39 in good health, to spend on clothing, comforts, and petty luxuries, or to save. It will be seen that the cost of 2 maunds of cheap millet averaged 3"3 rupees for the first eighteen years of the period taken, 4*4 rupees for the last nineteen years, and 5'2 rupees for the last four years ; so that the margin of comfort of such a family averaged 2" 8 rupees for the first eighteen years, 3'2 rupees for the last nineteen years, and 4'7 rupees for the last four years. Thus, notwithstanding the rise of prices, the average labourer is much better off than he was formerly, and has now nearly twice as much to spend on comforts and luxuries as he could reckon on twenty years ago. The diagram shows, however, that in years of scarcity, when grain is dear, this margin of comfort for the married labourer is dangerously reduced. In 1896, and again in 1900, it took nearly all his wages to provide his family with necessary food. In 1908, though prices were very high, the phenomenal rise in the rate of wages left the margin of comfort not much below the average. This is the condition of the married labourer who obtains constant employment at the average rate of wages. But, of course, there are often times when he finds it difficult to do so, and must be content to accept lower w^ages temporarily, or go in search of work, or do without it for a time. This is especially the case in seasons of widespread drought, when the soil is too dry and hard to be worked, and agricultural opera- tions are at a standstill over many square miles of country. Formerly such conditions gave rise to famine, and it required all the resources of the State to keep the people alive. In the Punjab, thanks to the great recent development of cultivation and irriga- tion, to the accumulation of capital, and to the constant demand for large bodies of unskilled labourers on the canal and railway works, there is now little fear, except in small isolated tracts of country, of the development of famine conditions to such an extent as to necessitate the opening of large relief works. When the prices of the inferior grains fall , as they are already showing a tendency to do, and the population recovers its normal health, wages will probably fall a little, but they are not in the near future likely to be again much below their present level, because the conditions which have chiefly caused the rise are more or less permanent. Cultivation and irrigation are likely to continue to expand, the demand for labour on canals, railways, and other public works is likely to continue ; all classes have recently added greatly to their accumulations of capital, and the total produce of the Province is still increasing rapidly, while the population has decreased, and the number of hands to work and of mouths to { 40 RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS eat is less than before. The advance in prosperity which has been secured by the labouring classes in recent years is likely to be permanent, and I do not think we shall soon see the average rate of wages for unskilled labour fall below 5 pence a day, or 9 rupees a month. The Punjabi peasant has always been ready to take service in the Army or the Military Police and to wander in search of fortune, and he may be found in numbers in Burma, China, or even in far-distant Australia or California ; and the recent changes in the economic conditions of the Punjab have made the labourer much more inclined to move in search of better wages. The great colonisation schemes, which have been so successful, and which have tempted more .than a million persons to migrate from their old homes within the last twenty years, have led to a loosening of old ties ; and the demand for labour on newly irrigated land and on the large public works have also encouraged the labourers to migrate for the better wages they could earn elsewhere. In the old villages it is now a common complaint among the yeomen and peasants that their hereditary dependents, the village menials, who used to help them in the fields, rcjoair their implements, and do odd jobs for a customary wage, usually paid in kind, have left them for better-paid work on cash wages elsewhere ; so that they have either to do the menial labour them- selves or to pay high wages in cash to get it done. There is no doubt that there has in this way been a great unsettling of the quiet old village life, custom giving way before competition, and cash payment taking the place of payments in kind. But the change has led to a great advance in the independence and pros- perity of the menial classes, and the greater cost of labour to the yeomen and peasants is more than made up to them by the greater value of their crops, due to the rise of prices. There has been a similar rise in the wages of the skilled artisan classes, such as carpenters, blacksmiths, and masons, due to similar reasons. According to the reports from the different districts, the averages for these classes have been as follows per month: for the three years ending 1875, 12"7 rupees; for the eighteen years ending 1890, 14'6 rupees; for the last nineteen years, 20"4; and for the last four years, 27'4 rupees — so that an artisan of these classes can now earn nearly double the wages he could earn twenty years ago. The demand for better houses, better implements and utensils, and the growth of public works of all kinds, have provided much regular employment for this class of skilled workman, and their prosperity seems assured. IN THE PUNJAB 41 The great and sudden rise of prices and wages has not been without its hardships, especially to those classes whose income is a fixed number of rupees, as they now find it difficult to make both ends meet and to maintain their previous standard of com- fort. But there is a tendency, in discussing the effects of this rise, to dwell upon the interests of the consumer, and to forget those of the producer. Practically all the officials, thinkers, speakers, and writers, who deal with the question are, so far as regards material wealth, more consumers than producers, and they naturally think first of the interests of their own class. But the great mass of the population of the Punjab, land-owners, tenants, and labourers, are producers as well as consumers, and there can be no doubt that for them the net result of the recent rise in prices and wages has been a great increase in wealth. There is another tendency to be avoided. In dealing with questions affecting the land we have, naturally and properly, concentrated our attention on the unfortunate members of the land-owning community, those who have lost their land or become involved in serious debt, and have been busied in devising means for their protection. But let us not forget that they are a small minority of the whole body, and that the great mass of the peasant land- owners are well off and free of debt, many of them possessing, besides their land, property of considerable value in houses, cattle, utensils, clothes, and ornaments. The land-owning and tenant classes of the Province are able, after meeting their own needs and those of the rest of the population , to export annually agricul- tural and pastoral produce to the value of £12,000,000 sterling, or about one-third of the gross produce of the land. Only about one-eighth of the land is under mortgage ; and the total indebted- ness of the agricultural to the non-agricultural classes cannot much exceed £15,000,000 sterling, or about one-tenth of the selling value of their land. There are few countries in the world which can show a better state of things than this. Manufactures. At first sight it seems strange that it should be found profitable to send such articles as raw cotton 800 miles by rail and 6,000 miles by sea to Europe, and to bring back from England manu- factured piece-goods in great quantity, more especially when labour is comparatively so much cheaper in the Punjab than in England. Among the reasons why manufactures have not yet 42 RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS been started on a large scale in the Punjab are the dearness of fuel, the cost of importing machinery, the absence of skilled labour, and, still more, of skilled superintendence, and the diffi- culty of starting factories on a scale large enough to enable them to turn out great quantities of cheap goods. But the chief reason seems to be that hitherto agriculture, the hereditary occupation of the mass of the people, has been so profitable that the available capital and labour have been content to employ themselves in increasing the produce of the land, and to purchase manufactured goods from outside the Province, whether from Europe or from other parts of India, in exchange for their surplus agricultural produce. There are signs of a coming change in this respect. During the last few years there has been a steady increase in the number of factories ; but in 1908 there were still only 264 at work, most of them quite small, employing altogether only 26,000 hands. Of these no fewer than 182 are engaged in ginning cotton, mainly for export, and there are only eight cotton-spinning and weaving mills, seventeen flour mills, five rice mills, nine iron and brass works, and ten steam printing presses. Although these factories offer wages generally a little higher than those paid for agricultural labour, they have difficulty in securing enough hands at busy times. It is desirable to encourage manufactures in order to provide more steady work for the labouring classes and a profitable investment for the rapidly accumulating capital, and to save the cost of transporting raw produce and bringing back manufactured goods over such great distances. The Government have been making endeavours to find local supplies of coal and to develop electrical power from the Punjab rivers ; and the exhibition recently held at Lahore may stimulate interest in industrial development ; but for many years to come agriculture will remain the most important and the most profitable industry of the Province, and the greatest benefit can be conferred on the , ^»- ^j greatest number of the population by encouraging the improve- '^''^ ment of agriculture, and thus increasing the produce of the land. Agricultural Improvement. Much has been done in this direction by the Government, and much more is being done. In continuation of the very successful irrigation policy of the past, a series of three great canals is now under construction, which will bring water from the Jhelam river into the Chenab, and from the Chenab river across the Pvavi, to IN THE PUNJAB 43 irrigate large areas of land at present lying waste between the Kavi and the Satlaj. This scheme will cost some £0,000,000 sterling and add 2 million acres to the irrigated area of the Province. It will be followed by a large canal from the Satlaj river, below its junction with the Bias, which will irrigate land on the borders of the Eajputana desert. And some day a still more stupendous work will be undertaken to draw water from the mighty Indus itself and irrigate the desert to the east of that river. Land-owners are encouraged to invest capital in the improvement of their land by the grant of an exemption of the improvement from assessment to land revenue for a period long enough to enable the land-owner to recoup himself double his capital expenditure from the additional profit derived from the improvement. An excellent Veterinary College at Lahore turns out annually a large number of well-trained veterinary assistants, who are employed by the District Boards to give advice and medicine free of charge to the peasants, and who are rapidly gaining the confidence of the people and doing useful work, especially in preventing the spread of epidemics among cattle. Within the last few years an elaborate scheme of agricultural education has been adopted, and last year a well-equipped Agricultural College was opened in the centre of the largest canal colony. The staff consists of a professor of agriculture, an agricultural chemist, and an economic botanist, recruited from this country, wdth assistants trained in India. A beginning was made last September with a class of sixteen students, and as there were nearly six hundred applications for admission, it is evident that there will be no lack of demand for agricultural in- struction. Attached to the College is a farm for experiment, observation, and demonstration, and already there is good promise of the production of improved varieties of wheat, cotton, and other important staples. One of the great needs of the Province is a rust-resisting variety of wheat, and in obtaining this we hope to benefit from the study of wheats, which has been so successfully carried on at Cambridge and elsewhere. Other agricultural stations w^ill be started in other typical tracts of the Punjab, and it is hoped that the expert staff, who are in touch, on the one hand, with scientific developments in Europe and America, and on the other wdth the practical needs and traditional experience of the Punjab peasant, will soon be able to demonstrate improved methods of cultivation wdthin the reach of the small farmer, which will lead to a large increase in the produce of his fields and give him a better return for his labour. The recent rise of wages has 44 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE PUNJAB led to a demand for better agricultural implements, and reaping machines, winnowers, bullock hoes, chaff-cutting machines, and improved ploughs are becoming popular. Insects and fungus diseases do an immense amount of harm to the crops in India, and the labours of the skilled entomologist and biologist at the Imperial Agricultural College at Pusa promise to result in great benefit to the agriculturists all over the country. It may take some time before the knowledge acquired by these scientific experts filters down to the millions of conservative and illiterate peasants, and before the improved methods suggested by them are generally adopted ; but there is good reason to hope that in India, as elsewhere, the application of science to agriculture will ultimately result in a much larger outturn of produce. Conclusion. On a survey of the economic history of the Punjab during the last quarter of a century, I think it may fairly be claimed that, owing to the improvements made in communications, especially by road and railway, to the construction of the great canals, to the leniency of the State's demands in the form of land revenue, water-rates and general taxation, to the security given by the laws, and, last, but not least, to the industry and thrift of the people, there has been a marvellous increase in the material wealth of the Province, and that this increase has been equally spread over practically all classes, the largest share in it having been secured by the most important class of all, the great body of small land-owners. There seems every reason to hope that this jjrogress will continue, and that, as time goes on, the Punjab will become more and more a rich granary of the Empire, the home of a prosperous and contented peasantry. APPENDICES APPENDIX I Cultivated, Irrigated, and Cropped Area of the 29 British Districts of the Punjab (Millions of Acres). / Average of Year ending 31st May. 1906-7. 1907-8. 1908-9. the three years. Area sown... 29-9 24-5 29-3 27-9 Area irrigated — total 10-8 10-8 10-4 10-7 ,, — by wells 3-1 4 3-1 3-4 ,, — by canals 7-4 6-3 6-9 6-9 Number of wells in use (thousands) ... 279 294 285 286 Crops that failed to mature 4-0 8-1 5-1 57 Crops that matured 25-9 16-4 24-2 22-2 Principal crops — sown area — Wheat 9-6 7-4 8-4 8-5 Gram 4-5 1-8 4-2 3-5 Bajra . 2-5 2-6 3-2 2-8 Jawar 1-6 1-4 1-6 1-5 Barley 1-3 1-4 1-2 1-3 Maize 1-2 1-2 1-2 1-2 Pulses 1-7 1-6 1-7 1-7 Oilseeds 1-6 1-0 1-4 1-3 Cotton 1-3 1'3 1-4 1-3 Sugar-cane 0-3 0-4 0-4 0-4 Fodder crops 2-5 2-9 27 2-8 47 APPENDIX II Estimated Outturn and Value of the Crops in the 29 British Districts in the Agricultural Year 1908-9 (Ending 31st May). Estimated Average harvest prices in Gross value at Punjab Area i weight of rupees in 190S-9. prices of the year. sown in < millions of produce in thousands Crop. In thousands acres. of tons. Per niaund. Per ton. In thousands of rupees. of pounds sterling. Rice (unliusked) 0-7 347 2-7 74 25,678 1,712 Wheat 8-4 2,895 - 3-6 98 283,710 18,914 Barley 1-2 379 2-4 66 25,014 1,668 Jawar 1-6 311 2-6 71 22,081 1,472 Bajra 3-2 646 3-1 85 54,910 3,661 Maize 1-2 394 2-9 79 31,126 2,075 Gram 4-2 1,157 2-7 74 85,618 5,708 Spring oilseeds 1-3 189 4-3 117 22,113 1,474 Sugar-cane ... 0-4 278 4-6 126 35,028 2,335 Cotton 1-4 298 5-6 153 45,594 3,040 Other food crops 2-6 370 3-0 82 30,340 2,023 Fodder and otli er non-food crops 3-1 Omitted. Omitted Omitted. 31,000 2,066 Total .. ... 29-3 7,264 — 692,212 46,148 Food 6,777 i — Non - food besic as fodder 1 . . — 487 " " APPENDIX III Trade of the Punjab, Including the Native States and the North-west Frontier Province. A. — Total Imports and Exports. Total Imports. Total Exports • Year ending Goods. Goods. Treasure- value in Treasure- value in Weisht in Valnc in millions of Weight in Value in millions of millions of millions of rupees. millii>ns of millions of rupi-es. maunds. rupees. maunds. rupees Average of tliiee years ending 1889 10-3 92 Not known 13-8 72 Not known 1901-2 20-3 155 31 38-4 155 7 1902-3 25-3 156 22 2ti-3 119 12 1903-4 21-9 151 30 36-1 147 11 1904-5 •24-4 175 55 52-6 187 11 1905-6 34-2 221 39 43-2 184 18 1906-7 28-7 224 34 54-8 219 14 1907-8 40-3 259 55 62-9 286 6 1908-9 42-2 242 21 24-4 153 15 Average of four years en'Hnt; 1904-5 ... 23-0 159 34 38 4 152 10 Average of fonr years ending 1908-9 ... 36-4 236 37 46-3 1 210 13 B. — Value of Princijml Imports into the Punjab and North-west Frontier Province {hu7idreds of thousands of rupees). 1 Year ending 31st March. Cotton piece goods. -uigar. Metals. Railway jslant and rolling stock. Grain and jiulse. Oils and oilseeds. Coal and coke. J ate goods. 1901-2 423 239 136 39 46 62 47 67 1902-3 391 185 156 49 56 57 54 47 1903-4 397 201 159 73 43 47 43 27 1904-5 517 214 149 113 37 46 58 86 1905-6 595 354 140 149 67 86 63 70 1906-7 640 279 240 84 46 127 47 88 1907-8 719 294 242 175 100 173 91 126 1908-9 656 281 219 120 131 161 89 55 Average of four years ending 1904-5 ... 432 210 150 68 46 53 50 57 Average of four years ending 1908-9 ... 652 302 210 132 86 137 72 85 49 APPENDIX III C. — Value of Principal Exports {hundreds of thousands of rupees). Grain and pulse. Raw cotton. Oilseeds. Hides and Year ending 31st March. Wheat Wool. Total. and wheat flour. * 1901-2 639 418 127 332 53 44 1902-3 442 334 193 38 45 81 1903-4 648 556 256 43 63 60 1904-5 936 753 275 118 75 67 1905-6 917 596 224 119 136 50 1906-7 1200 746 221 156 135 53 1907-8 1881 1136 269 158 77 41 1908-9 651 367 194 116 88 44 Average of four years ending 1904-5 666 515 213 133 59 63 Average of four years ending 1908-9 1162 711 227 137 109 47 D. — Weight of Grain and Pulse {hundreds of thousands of mamids) . Total grain and pulse. Wheat and wlieat flour. Year ending 31st March. Imports. Exports. Net exports. Imports. Exports. Net exports. 1901-2 14 250 236 3 172 169 1902-3 19 186 167 4 147 143 1903-4 14 279 265 4 242 238 1904-5 12 423 411 5 328 323 1905-6 19 332 313 5 217 212 1906-7 13 446 433 6 290 284 1907-8 20 524 504 5 317 312 1908-9 30 151 121 5 87 82 Average of four years ending 1904-5 15 285 270 4 222 218 Average of four years ending 1908-9 20 363 343 5 228 223 50 APPENDIX IV EuPEE Prices of Principal Pood-grains — Annual Average of 23 Markets in the Punjab and North-west Frontier Province— Eetail Prices — Rupees per Maund of 8'2f lbs. Avoirdupois. Year ending 3lst De<\ AVliciit. Bajra. Gram. Jawar. 1873 1-80 1-42 1-45 1-32 1874 1-73 1-61 1-25 1-45 1875 1-61 1-37 1-25 . 1-30 1876 1-54 1-29 1-09 1-20 1877 1-72 1-40 1-26 1-31 1S78 2-48 2-61 2-47 2-40 1879 310 261 2-76 2-55 1880 2-74 2-24 2-20 2-34 1881 2-31 2-12 1-90 1-80 1882 1-87 1-64 1-50 1-39 1883 1-80 1-34 1-30 1-15 1884 1-68 1-47 1-27 1 26 1885 1-62 1-34 1-25 1-21 1886 2 07 1-86 1-41 1-62 1887 2-74 2-53 1-93 2-31 1888 2 58 2-42 1-98 2-07 1889 2-05 2-00 1-58 1-58 1890 2-21 1-90 1-80 1-69 1891 ... 269 2-47 2-03 2-28 1892 2-96 2 -55 2 00 2-09 1893 2-46 2-06 1-58 1-68 1894 1-67 1-73 1-18 1-28 1895 2-11 1-98 1-60 1-65 1896 3-18 3-17 2-57 2-72 1897 3-85 3-88 3-83 3-42 1898 2-46 2-05 2-11 1-83 1899 2-55 2 36 2-32 2-06 1900 3-55 3-38 3-46 3-24 1901 2-65 2 00 2-21 1-85 1902 2-52 2-26 2-42 1-87 1903 2-45 2-14 1-91 1-84 1904 2-26 1-73 1-54 1-40 1905 2-67 2-18 1-95 1-87 1906 2-73 2-85 2-36 2-51 1907 2-90 2 33 2-45 2-14 1908 4-19 3-79 3-89 3 '52 1909' 3-67 2-52 2-59 2-35 Averagea. Eight years ending 1880 209 1-82 1-72 1-73 Ten years ending 1890 2-09 1-86 1-59 1-61 Ten years ending 1900 2-73 2-56 2-27 2 25 Nine years ending 1909 2-89 2-42 2-37 2-15 Thirty-seven years ending 1909 2-46 2-18 1-99 1-93 1 Prices of September, 1909. 51 APPENDIX V Gold Price of Silver, Gold Value of Kupee, Gold Prices OF Wheat. Price of silver in London X>er standard ounce. Average rate of exchange in jicnce per rupee. Gold price of wheat in Punjab in shillings per quarter. Average jirice in London of British wheat per quarter in shillings. Year. In pence. In multiples of 2W. 1873 59 23-6 22-4 20-2 58 7 1874 58 23-2 22-2 19-2 55-7 1875 57 22-8 21-6 17-4 45-7 1876 53 21-2 20-5 15-8 46-2 1877 55 22-0 20-8 17-9 56-8 1878 53 21-2 19-8 22-6 46-4 1879 51 20-4 200 31-0 43-8 1880 52 20-8 20-0 27-4 44-3 1881 52 20-8 19-9 23 45-3 1882 52 20-8 19-5 18-3 45-1 1883 51 20-4 19-5 17-6 41-6 18S4 51 20-4 19-3 16-2 35-3 1885 49 19-6 18-3 14-8 32-8 1886 45 18-0 17-4 18-0 31-3 1887 45 18-0 16-9 23 2 32-4 1888 43 17-2 16-4 21-2 31-7 1889 43 17-2 16-6 17-0 29-7 1890 48 19-2 181 20 31-8 1891 45 180 167 22-5 36-8 1892 40 16-0 15-0 22 2 31-2 1893 36 14-4 14-5 17-8 26-3 1894 29 11-6 13-1 10-8 23-3 1895 30 12-0 13'6 14-3 22-8 1896 31 12-4 14-5 23 26 1897 28 11-2 15-4 29-6 30-0 1898 27 10-8 16-0 19-7 34-6 1899 27 10-8 16-1 20-4 25-8 1900 28 11-2 16 26-8 26 9 1901 28 11-2 16-0 21-2 26-7 1902 24 9-6 16-0 20-2 28-2 1903 25 10-0 16-0 19-6 26-8 1904 26 10-4 16 18-1 28 '3 1905 28 11-2 16-0 21-4 29-8 1906 31 12-4 16-0 21-8 28-3 1907 31 12-4 16-0 23-2 30-5 1908 25 100 16-0 33-5 32-1 1909 24 9-6 160 29-4 36-9 Average of eighteen years ending 1890 — — 19-4 20-0 41-9 Average of nineteen years ending 1909 — — ' 15-5 21-9 290 52 APPENDIX VI Wages of Labour. Year. .\veragfi montlily wa^rs in rnpers of Prico in rujicesof two maunris of jawar at the Margin of comfort in Average monthly wages in ru]ic('s of common mason, Average wages paid in rnpees for unskilled labour at the Kailway Locomotive workshops at Lahore. aj^ricultural labourer. average price of the year. rupees. carpenter, or blacksmith. Daily. Monthly. 1873 5-2 2-6 2-6 12-8 0-19 5 1 1874 5-4 2-9 2-5 11-9 0-19 5-1 1875 5-4 2-6 2-8 13-5 0-19 5-0 1876 57 2-4 3-3 13-6 0-20 5-1 1877 5-5 2-6 2-9 13-7 0-19 5-1 1878 5-4 4-8 0-6 13-2 0-19 5-2 1879 ... ... 6-2 51 ri 15-0 0-19 5-2 1880 ••• * ••■ 6 '2 4-7 1-5 15-1 0-19 5-2 1881 6-3 3-6 2-7 147 0-20 5-2 1882 6-3 2-8 3-5 13-8 0-20 5-2 1883 6 3 2-3 4 14-6 0-20 5-2 1884 6-1 2-5 3-6 14-8 0-20 5-2 1885 6-2 2-4 3-8 15-9 0-20 5-2 1886 0-9 32 3-7 15 4 0-20 5-3 1887 6-8 4-6 2-2 15-9 0-22 5-9 1888 6-6 4-1 2-5 157 0-23 6-1 1889 6-4 3-2 3-2 16-4 0-25 6-5 1890 6-4 3-4 3-0 17-3 0-23 6-3 1S91 6-4 4-6 1-8 15-4 0-24 6-6 1892 6-8 4-2 2-6 17-1 0-27 6-9 1893 6-6 3-4 3-2 16-5 0-27 6-9 1894 6-8 2-6 4-2 16-2 0-26 7-0 1895 6-7 3-3 3-4 16-8 0-28 7-5 1896 7-0 5-4 1-6 17-0 0-21 5-6 1897 6-9 6-8 0-1 18-2 0-21 5-6 1898 6-8 3-7 3-1 18-9 0-25 6-6 1S99 6-8 4-1 2-7 19-4 0-23 6-0 1900 7-3 6-5 0-8 19-2 0-25 6-8 1901 7-2 3-7 3-5 18-9 0-22 5-9 1902 7-5 3-7 3-8 21-2 0-23 6-2 1903 7-0 3-7 3-3 20-4 0-22 6-0 1904 7-4 2-8 4-6 20-3 0-25 6-6 1905 7-1 3-7 3-4 227 0-23 6-1 1906 8-0 50 3-0 23-6 0-26 7-1 19G7 10-8 4-3 6-5 25-1 0-:^0 8-1 1908 10-9 7-0 3-9 307 0-35 9-4 1909 10-0 4-7 5-3 30-0 33 8-6 Average of Eighteen years ending"lS90 6 1 3-3 2-8 14-6 0'20 5-4 Nineteeu years ending 1900 7-6 4-4 3-2 20-4 0-26 6-8 Four J' e a r s ending 1909 9-9 5-2 4-7 27-4 0-31 8-3 53 APPENDIX VII Cultivating Occupancy in the Punjab (29 British Districts). In Thousands. In 1889. Number of holdings. Total cultivated area ... ... ... ... 5,959 Owners (including tenants holding directly • from Government) Tenants holding free of rent or at a nominal rent Tenants paying -> rent With a right of occupancy -Paying rents depend- ent on the land Without a right of occupancy revenue *l Paying other cash rents Paying rents in kind Total of tenants without a right of occupancy 2,720 638 257 735 1,417 Area. 24,900 14,600 2,547 607 2,281 4,692 2,409 ' 7,580 In 1907. Number of holdings. 9,341 3,499 464 1,021 451 948 2,957 4,356 Area. 27,231 12,397 309 2,368 849 2,734 8,075 11,658 64 ego I— ( f-H 00 c^ CO !» 00 CO a> o eo t—l oo 00 c^ CO (M CD «S Ud 05 ■" <«-^ (N a, o g o. 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Off. lU 062. iv!43899 Wc^37 THE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LIBRARY ^