UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURE AGRICULTURAL EXPERIMENT STATION BERKELEY, CALIFORNIA SERIES ON CALIFORNIA CROPS AND PRICES LEMONS H. R. WELLMAN AND E. W. BRAUN BULLETIN 460 October, 1928 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA PRINTING OFFICE BERKELEY, CALIFORNIA 1928 CONTENTS PAGE Summary 3 Lemon Acreage in California 6 The place of California in the lemon industry 6 Trend of bearing acreage since 1914 6 Location of bearing acreage in 1928 7 Changes in bearing acreage in principal producing counties since 1921 8 Location of non-bearing acreage in 1928 8 Shipments and Production 9 Trend of shipments 9 Trend of production 10 Seasonal movement of lemon shipments 11 Important Lemon Markets in the United States 15 Consumption of Lemons 17 Prices 19 Wide fluctuations in prices 19 Effect of supply upon price 19 Effect of temperatures upon price 22 Effect of amount of sickness upon price 24 Seasonal variation in lemon prices 25 Estimated farm price of lemons 26 United States Foreign Trade in Lemons 27 Imports 27 Exports 29 Foreign Lemon-Producing Countries 30 Italy 30 Spain 32 Australia 32 Acknowledgment 32 Appendix of Tables 33 LEMONS H. K. WELLMANi and E. W. BRAUN- SUMMARY The lemon industry of the United States is practically confined to California. In this state there has been a pronounced upward trend in production during the past two decades. The average production in 1908 as measured by the line of trend amounted to 1,800,000 boxes; by 1927 it had risen to 6,500,000 boxes, an increase of 260 per cent. During the first part of this twenty-year period the increase in pro- duction was about offset by a decrease in imports, so that the total supply of lemons available for consumption was not materially larger. But during recent years imports have declined only slightly, while domestic production has increased as rapidly as before. Although exports have also increased they have provided an outlet for only a small part of the increase in domestic production. Consequently there has been a very substantial increase in the total supply of lemons available for consumption in this country. The demand for lemons has not kept pace with the rapid increase in the supply. The per-capita consumption of lemons during the past seven years has averaged only 2.6 lemons, or 19 per cent, higher than before the war. Probably the greatest part of this small increase in per-capita consumption has been the result of improvement in the quality and pack, wider distribution, extensive advertising, and the recommendation by nutrition experts of the wider use of lemons in the diet. The relatively low prices of lemons as compared with the prices of commodities in general have had but a minor effect in increasing consumption. This is because the demand for lemons tends to be inelastic. People do not buy many more lemons when prices are low, nor do they greatly reduce their purchases when prices are high. Consequently a relatively small shortage in the supply causes prices to rise rapidly, while a relatively small surplus causes them to drop rapidly. Because of the large increase in California production there has been a surplus during recent years whenever the crop has been average or above. This situation has resulted in unprofitably low 1 Extension Specialist in Agricultural Economics. 2 Extension Specialist in Agricultural Economics. 4 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION prices to growers, and would have resulted in still lower prices had all of the lemons been shipped that were produced. Not only would the price per box have been very much lower, but the total return to the growers would also have been materially reduced. The experience during the past twenty years has been that a small crop brings a larger total return than a large crop, other things such as imports and temperatures being equal. This is the chief justification for limitation of shipments. Although lemons are shipped every month in the year, the heaviest supplies reach the consuming markets during the summer months. This is also the period of greatest demand. People not only consume three times as many lemons in the summer as they do in the winter but on the average they pay more for them as well. The chief factor affecting the demand for lemons in the summer is temperature. Hot weather stimulates the demand, cool weather retards it. Temperatures, however, change rapidly, and up to the present time it has seldom been possible to forecast the temperature departures from the normal very far in advance. It has been extremely difficult, therefore to so adjust the shipments of lemons from this state as to have a large supply in the markets as far as 3,000 miles away when the weather was unusually hot and to have only a small supply there when the weather was unusually cool. This is the chief reason why prices have fluctuated so violently during the summer months, and it is also the reason why the price fluctuations have seldom been the same two years in succession. While it is almost impossible to determine just when prices will be high or low during a given year, it is true that over a period of years prices are higher on the average in the summer than in the winter. Those sections of the state, therefore, that have been able to ship a relatively large part of their lemons during the summer months without undue loss from deterioration in storage have received higher returns on the average. In some instances this price advantage has meant the difference between a profitable and an unprofitable lemon district. The available information indicates that lemon production in California is now at about the peak. While there may be a further increase in the average yield per acre due to the increased age of the trees, it is not likely to be large, and it will probably be largely offset by a decrease in the bearing acreage. Since 1925 the trend of bearing acreage has been downward and this downward trend is likely to continue. The present non-bearing acreage of lemons in the state is Bul. 460] LEMONS 5 not sufficient to replace the bearing acreage that will normally be taken out. If plantings are no heavier during the coming years than they have been in recent years the normal decrease in bearing acreage will gradually correct the present situation of over-production. Such a remedy, however, must necessarily be slow. And in the meantime growers are faced with the ever present possibility of producing more lemons than can be sold at profitable prices. To remedy this situation it is evident that demand must be increased or supply reduced. Both offer possibilities. Some increase in demand can probably be effected, but unless some unusual develop- ments occur it will be slow, judging from the experience of the past twenty years. On the other hand the supply of lemons available for consumption can be immediately reduced through limitation of domestic shipments. This has already been successfully demonstrated. If limitation of shipments is extended to include the entire industry in the state it will be of great value in the temporary solution of the problem. It should be recognized, however, that limitation of ship- ments is a temporary and not a permanent solution of over-supply. The permanent solution requires a decrease in imports or a reduction in acreage. A decrease in imports at this time would be of considerable benefit to the California lemon industry in that it would enable the growers to market a large proportion of their merchantable fruit which is now converted to by-products or dumped. A decrease in imports taken by itself would not necessarily mean that growers would receive a higher price per box for those shipped, but it would enable them to ship more boxes at the same price as they are now receiving, which would add materially to their total returns. An immediate reduction in the lemon acreage in the state would be helpful. There are unquestionably many lemon trees on marginal land, trees that will continue to bear for years and thus add to the total supply of lemons, but will probably never return the owners a profit except in seasons of unusually high prices. The sooner these trees are taken out the better it will be for both the owners and the industry. Any material expansion in the lemon industry of the state should be discouraged. If any new plantings are made they should be only in localities having the most favorable climatic and soil conditions. Although returns may be raised through an increase in the demand or a decrease in the supply, individual growers cannot escape the fact that their best outlook for the future lies in more efficient production, including both improvement in quality and reduction in cost. UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION LEMON ACREAGE IN CALIFORNIA The Place of California in the Lemon Industry. — Practically all of the United States acreage of lemons is in California. According to the 1925 Census of Agriculture of the United States 95 per cent of the total lemon trees in this country in 1925 were in this state. Lemon trees were reported in twelve states other than California, but the acreage in these states was so small as to be negligible from a Bearing Acreage of Lemons in California, 1914-1928 400 300 o 200 100 Fig. 1. — The bearing acreage of lemons in California increased very rapidly between 1917 and 1921; since 1921 it has remained practically stationary. (Data from California Cooperative Crop Reporting Service.) commercial standpoint. California has, therefore, a virtual monopoly in the production of lemons as far as the United States is concerned. Certain foreign countries, however, produce large quantities which compete directly with our lemons in the markets of the United States. Trend of Bearing Acreage since 1914. — Estimates of bearing acreage of lemons in California are available for each year since 1914. These data are shown graphically in figure 1. It will be noted that the greatest expansion in the lemon industry during the past fifteen years occurred between 1917 and 1921. During that period the Bul. 460" LEMONS bearing acreage was increased by 19,600 acres, or 86 per cent. From 1921 to 1925 there was a gradual increase but it was very small, amounting to only 2,000 acres. The peak was reached in 1925. At that time there were approximately 44,300 acres in bearing. Since 1925 there has been a small but steady decline, totaling about 1,400 acres. It is expected that this downward trend will continue during the next few years. The present non-bearing acreage in the state, includ- ing 1927 plantings, amounts to only 2,667 acres, which is probably not sufficient to replace the acreage that will normally be taken out. The Percentage of California's Bearing Lemon Acreage in Main Lemon- Producing Counties, 1928 Fig. 2. — Approximately 90 per cent of the total bearing acreage of lemons in the state is in six counties in southern California. (Data from table 9.) average commercial life of a lemon tree is about thirty-five years. 3 With a lemon tree coming into bearing at about five years of age, it is, therefore, necessary to have at least 15 trees of non-bearing age to maintain 100 trees in bearing. Consequently, if our present bearing acreage of approximately 42,900 acres is to be maintained, it is neces- sary to have about 6,400 acres of non-bearing trees. But since there are only 2,667 acres, it is evident that the bearing acreage will decline, and that the decline during the next five years will probably be between 2,500 and 3,000 acres. Location of Bearing Acreage in 1928. — The relative importance of the main lemon-producing counties in 1928 from the standpoint of bearing acreage is shown in figure 2. Los Angeles is the leading s Some trees, of course, bear much longer, while others will not bear as long, depending largely upon the rootstock and cultural practices. 8 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION lemon-producing county at the present time, followed by Orange, Ventura, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Riverside in the order named. These six counties, located in southern California, contain approximately 87 per cent of the total bearing acreage in the state, while Los Angeles County alone contains 27 per cent. With Santa Barbara County included in the southern group of counties it is found that 91 per cent of the total bearing acreage of lemons in the state is in southern California. Tulare County, with 2,688 acres in bearing, is the only important lemon-producing county in central California, and Colusa County, with 720 acres, is the only important one in northern California, Absolute Increase or Decrease iist Bearing Acreage of Lemons in Main Lemon-Producing Counties from 1921 to 1928 County San Bernardino Acres 605 Santa Barbara 590 Ventura 286 San Diego 282 Los Angeles 168 Colusa 167 Tulare 114 Orange -549 Riverside -1,128 I nor ease 250 600 750 Fig. 3. — The large decreases in the bearing acreage of lemons in Eiverside and Orange counties during recent years have offset a considerable part of the increases in the other important producing counties. (Data from table 9.) Changes in Bearing Acreage in Principal Producing Counties since 1921. — Figure 3 shows the absolute change in the bearing acreage of the nine most important lemon-producing counties between 1921 and 1928. It will be noted that seven of the nine counties experienced an increase, two a decrease. The largest increase was in San Bernardino County, followed closely by Santa Barbara County. The combined increase in these two counties amounted to 1,193 acres, which is more tli an the total increase in all of the other counties. Riverside and Orange counties experienced a decrease of 1,128 and 549 acres, respec- tively, the largest part of which occurred in the past two years. Location of Non-hearing Acreage in 1928. — The location of the recent plantings of lemons is shown in figure 4. Of the 2,216 acres not in bearing in 1928, exclusive of 1927 plantings, 35.4 per cent were in Bul.460] LEMONS 9 Ventura County, 26.9 per cent in Orange County, and 20 per cent in San Diego County. It is evident from these figures that the bulk of the recent plantings has been in the coast district of southern Cali- fornia. There have apparently been no plantings in recent years in the interior district of southern California or in the San Joaquin and Sacramento valleys. Percentage of California's Non-Bearing Lemon Agreage in Main Lemon-Producing Counties, 1928 Others Total Fig. 4. — Most of the recent plantings of lemons have been made in the coast counties of southern California. (Data from table 9.) SHIPMENTS AND PRODUCTION Trend of Shipments. — California lemon shipments during the past twenty years are shown by the heavy solid line in figure 5. Significant changes in the trend of shipments occurred during this period. The increase in shipments during the first and last parts of the period was small as compared with that during the middle part. In 1908 the average shipments as determined by the line of trend amounted to approximately 1,700,000 boxes; by 1914 they amounted to 2,200,000 boxes, an increase of 29 per cent. Then occurred a period of very rapid expansion. During the seven years from 1914 to 1921, ship- ments increased 2,200,000 boxes, or 100 per cent. Since 1921 the increase has been much slower. In 1927 the average amounted to 5,000,000 boxes, which was only 600,000 boxes, or 14 per cent, larger than in 1921. The much smaller rise in the trend of shipments during recent years was largely caused by limitation of shipments and not by a slower increase in production. Production has increased about as rapidly as before, as is shown by the broken line in figure 5. Before 1919 shipments of lemons from California were fairly representative 10 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION of the production of merchantable fruit, exclusive of the amount consumed within the state. Some lemons were occasionally dumped and a limited amount was sent to by-product plants, but the volume disposed of in these ways was seldom more than a small percentage of the crop. Since 1919, however, and more particularly during the past few years, a considerable part of the production has not been shipped. California Lemon Shipments, 1908-1927, and Estimated Production, 1916-1927 Prod, g | , | | o o I I • O fr» o o> Ship. © » lO CM U5 r-t m to t- C\J o> o o> l» CO CO CO P ' f l / / p up • • A / / \ / / J / \ / j VJ [V t **»^ V\ ( V IJ V. V\ 1926-27 5 in 1925-26 ro * W 1-1 t-i i-i t-i c- in in o tO CM CO eo t- t- o ■* t£> IH • "Z^ "•*•, / s * t^-'' Fig. 6. — The bulk of the California lemon crop is shipped during the spring and summer months. (Data from table 11.) return a profit to growers. Consequently, it has been necessary to ship only a part of the crop and send the remainder to by-product plants or dump it. Seasonal Movement of Lemon Shipments. — California lemons are shipped every month in the year. The heaviest shipments, however, occur during the spring and summer months with the peak shipments in May and June. The solid line in figure 6 shows the average per- centage of the crop shipped each month for the past seven years. It will be noted that there is usually a gradual, although somewhat irregular increase in shipments from the beginning of the crop year in November through April, followed by a substantial increase in May. 12 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION June shipments are usually slightly larger than those in May. After June, shipments decline rapidly reaching a low point in September or October. During the past seven years approximately 69 per cent of the lemon crop has been shipped during the six months of March to August, and 32 per cent during the two months of May and June. In the fall and winter months lemon shipments are relatively small. On the average only 31 per cent of the crop has moved to market during the six months of September to February. The percentage of the total crop shipped each month varies, of course, from year to year, as is illustrated by the broken lines in figure 6. In 1926-27, for example, shipments during the first part of the season were unusually heavy while in 1925-26 they were unusually light. TABLE 1 Percentage of Total Carlot Shipments of Lemons Shipped Each Month by Principal Producing Districts and Counties in California, Average 1920-21 to 1926-27 District or county Northern district Central district*. Riverside San Bernardino Los Angeles San Diego Orange Santa Barbara- Ventura State Nov. per cent 15.9 12.0 3.8 5.3 4.8 2.2 2.9 6.1 3.0 4.0 Dec. per cent 21.9 21.1 3.5 6.6 5.9 2.6 3.4 4.6 3.1 4.6 Jan. per cent 17.3 29.1 7.1 8.6 6.8 4.8 4.4 5.7 3.9 6.2 Feb. per cent 11.7 11.5 7.6 6.8 6.0 5.2 5.5 5.8 3.9 5.8 Mar. per cent 7.5 11.4 11.2 7.9 8.2 9.4 8.8 7.0 6.7 8.4 Apr. cent 8.8 5.5 10.9 7.3 9.4 12.5 11.2 7.2 8.7 9.6 May per cent 5.0 2.6 18.9 15.2 15.0 18.0 16.8 9.7 14.3 15.3 June per cent 1.0 1.1 18.6 17.2 15.7 18.0 17.4 13.5 15.8 16.3 July per cent 9.4 10.8 12.7 13.2 11.9 13.8 11.6 Aug. per cent 3.1 4.9 6.4 7.3 8.9 9.5 11.9 7.6 Sept, per cent 2.8 4.3 5.2 4.1 3.9 10.2 8.7 5.4 Oct. per cent 10.9 5.7 3.7 6.5 5.8 3.2 3.6 8.8 6.2 5.2 Total per cent 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 * Five-year average, 1922-23 to 1926-27. Sources of data: Compiled from U. S. Bur. Agr. Econ. Unpublished data (revised) , except for 10 months of January to October, 1927, which were compiled from: Yoeman, Opal V. Summary of carlot shipments of important fruits and vegetables in California, Arizona, and Nevada, 1927. U. S. Dept. Agr. Bur. Agr. Econ. mimeographed circular, 1928. ^ ^ The seasonal movement of lemon shipments differs considerably in the several lemon-producing sections of the state. The average per- centage of the crop shipped each month from the principal districts and counties is given in table 1. The shipping season in the northern and central districts begins in October. In the northern district the peak shipments usually come in December and in the central district in January. By the end of March, approximately 85 per cent of the crop in the northern district and 90 per cent of the crop in the central district have been shipped. These two districts ship practically no lemons during the summer months. Bul. 460] LEMONS 13 In southern California each of the main lemon-producing counties ship lemons every month in the year. There is some difference, how- ever, in the percentage of the crop shipped each month. In Riverside County 44 per cent of the crop is normally shipped by the end of April ; in San Bernardino County, 43 per cent ; in Los Angeles County, 41 per cent ; in San Diego County, 37 per cent ; in Orange and Santa Barbara counties, 36 per cent ; and in Ventura County, 29 per cent. Percentage of Total, Carlot Shipments of Lemons Shipped Each Month from Riverside and Ventura Counties, Average 1920-21 to 1926-27 Riverside Ventura CO • to to • ft 1> • o • to 20 15 °10 to CO • e- eo CO CM RIV ER5IDE V »*-., i \ / / > \ ^y-VENTURA 4 •— —« / / \ \ • • / / \ \ \ mmmmm / \ 1 ,--- s K I I 8 Fig. 7. — Riverside County is an early, and "Ventura County is a late lemon- shipping section. (Data from table 1.) Because of these differences in the seasonal movement of lemon ship- ments among the several counties the total shipments from the state as a whole are more evenly distributed throughout the year. Figure 7 was prepared to illustrate more clearly the differences in seasonal movement of lemon shipments between the earliest and the latest lemon-shipping counties in southern California. It will be noted that during the eight months from November to June, Riverside County ships a larger proportion of the crop than Ventura County, and that during the four months from July to October, the opposite situation prevails. 14 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION The later shipping season in Ventura County is largely accounted for by two conditions: the lemons are picked later and are stored longer. The average percentage of the crop picked each month by a typical lemon association in each of the two counties is shown in table 2. Pickings are relatively heavier in Riverside County than in Ventura County during each of the four months from November to February and are approximately as heavy during the two months of March and April. The peak picking period in Riverside County TABLE 2 Percentage of the Total Lemon Crop Picked Each Month by Typical Lemon Associations in Riverside and Ventura Counties, Average 1921-22 to 1926-27 Month November... December- January February March April May June July August September. October Association^ Riverside County Per cent 8.5 6.7 Cumulative per cent 8.5 15.2 24.3 33.2 45.8 59.8 70.9 77.2 80.5 83.6 90.7 100.0 Association in Ventura County Per cent 3.8 3.9 5.5 6.0 12.9 14.6 18.6 14.1 7.1 4.6 4.1 4.8 Cumulative per cent 3.8 7.7 13.2 19.2 32.1 46.7 65.3 79.4 86.5 91.1 95.2 100.0 Source of data: Compiled from records of two lemon associations, one in Riverside County and one in Ventura County. comes in April ; in Ventura. County it comes in May. By the end of April 60 per cent of the lemons in Riverside County, but only 47 per cent of those in Ventura County, have been picked. The chief reasons why lemons are picked early in Riverside County are that the crop matures early and a larger proportion of tree-ripe fruit is produced. The usual practice is to pick lemons according to size. Sizes 300 and 360 generally bring the highest prices. When possible, therefore, lemons are left on the trees until they reach the desired size. This cannot always be done, however. Sometimes they begin to turn yellow before they are fully sized. Then it is necessary to pick them relatively soon because tree-ripe lemons deteriorate in quality if left on the tree too long and do not make a growth sufficient to offset the reduction in quality. The second reason for the later shipping season in Ventura. County is that the lemons are stored longer. This is clearly seen from a com- BUL. 460] LEMONS 15 parison of the average percentage of the crop picked and shipped in the two counties. By the end of May, 71 per cent of the crop in Riverside County has been picked and 63 per cent has been shipped ; while in Ventura County 65 per cent has been picked, but only 44 per cent has been shipped. In other words, Riverside County has picked 6 per cent more of her crop than Ventura County and has shipped 19 per cent more. The chief reason why lemons are not held as long in storage on the average in Riverside County as in Ventura County is that a larger proportion of tree-ripe fruit is produced in the former county. IMPORTANT LEMON MARKETS IN THE UNITED STATES The location and relative importance of the principal markets for lemons in the United States are shown in figure 8. The majority of the markets are located in the midwestern and eastern states. New York City, Chicago, Philadelphia, and Boston are the largest lemon- consuming markets. During the four years of 1924 to 1927 over one- half of the total carlot shipments were unloaded in these four markets and almost one-third of the total were unloaded in New York City alone. The black portion of the circles in figure 8 represents the unloads from California, and the shaded portion the imports. It will be noted that California lemons meet with intense competition from foreign lemons in several of the markets on the north Atlantic Coast. Over 60 per cent of the total lemon unloads in New York City, for example, are imported. On the average this one market takes approximately 80 per cent of the total foreign lemons that enter the United States. Nearly three-fourths of the remaining 20 per cent of the imports are unloaded in Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington. Outside of the area in which these three markets and New York City are located, California lemons meet with practically no competition. Figure 8 also gives some indication of the wide distribution of California lemons. The total unloads from California in the thirty-two cities shown in figure 8 amounted to approximately 8,000 cars, which was 60 per cent of the total carlot shipments from the state. Most of the remaining 40 per cent of the shipments were sent to other markets in the United States. These figures together with the reports of the California Fruit Growers Exchange on carlot sales of lemons indi- cate that lemons are now available in practically every market of importance in the country. 16 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION Bul. 460] LEMONS 17 TABLE 3 Carlot Unloads of Lemons in Thirty-two Cities of the United States, Average 1924-1927 and 1927 City Origin of unloads City No. Average 1924-27 1927 Cali- fornia Im- ports Un- known Total Cali- fornia Im- ports Others Total j 169 261 128 541 163 881 328 343 116 130 122 341 69 140 232 113 179 121 237 143 1,330 107 530 306 111 413 67 76 115 51 114 27 6 115 4 19 2 12 3 7 2 175 376 137 567 166 893 331 351 123 130 122 353 69 150 232 132 190 122 237 150 3,460 107 700 317 112 415 67 76 116 51 116 66 213 291 133 541 126 898 334 339 109 125 122 345 78 130 205 142 165 109 171 253 1,439 97 526 370 111 406 58 68 189 44 103 23 1 49 4 17 3 16 214 2 340 3 5 7 1 137 4 11 569 5 Buffalo 129 6 914 7 334 8 Cleveland 1 5 5 4 1 1 345 9 Columbus 114 10 Dallas . 125 11 122 12 12 19 364 13 Ft. Worth 78 14 8 2 7 137 15 205 16 9 8 10 3 1 1 19 2 145 17 184 18 109 19 171 20 7 2,130 29 1,809 282 21 3,248 22 97 23 170 11 1 2 136 6 662 24 376 25 Portland, Ore. 111 26 406 27 St. Paul .... 58 28 Salt Lake City 68 29 1 189 30 44 31 Toledo 38 1 1 2 3 1 106 32 46 Total 8,004 2,568 37 10,609 8,720 2,150 16 10,429 Source of data: U. S. Dept. Agr. Bur. Agr. Econ., Mimeo. Reports. CONSUMPTION OF LEMONS The average consumption of lemons in the United States during the past seven years has amounted to 5,500,000 boxes annually. This is equivalent to 16 lemons for each person in the United States. The changes in the per-capita consumption from 1908 to 1927 are shown in figure 9. During the first ten years of this period the per-capita consumption averaged around 13.4 lemons annually, or 2.6 lemons less 18 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION than from 1921 to 1927. The larger per-capita consumption during recent years is the result of two conditions; namely, relatively lower prices and increased demand. After correcting for changes in the general price level, it is found that the relative price of lemons during the past seven years has averaged approximately 11 per cent lower than between 1908 and 1917. Consumers have been able to buy lemons somewhat cheaper as compared with other commodities than before the war. Relatively Per-Capita Consumption of Lemons, United States, 1908-1927 t-tOC^ o o ■ — i I r 1 t i — i — r O tH CM CM CM CM OS a> o> to ^« 10 to CM CM CM CM o> o> o> o> Crop year ending October 31 Fig. 9. — There has been only a small increase in the per-capita consumption of lemons in the United States during the past twenty years. (Data from table 14.) lower prices, however, probably account for only a small part of the increase in per-capita consumption because the demand for lemons is inelastic (see page 20). On the average, a change of almost 3 per cent in price is necessary to bring about a change of 1 per cent in the per-capita consumption. The larger part of the increase in per-capita consumption has been a result of an increase in the demand for lemons. Many factors undoubtedly contributed to this increase in demand. Among the more imporant are the following : ( 1 ) Workers in nutrition have constantly advocated the wider use of lemons because of the value of this fruit in the diet. (2) The California Fruit Growers Exchange has con- sistently advertised lemons for many years. (3) Improvements in grading and packing have contributed to the development of a quality Bul. 460] LEMONS 19 product. (4) The widening of the market areas has gone far toward making lemons available throughout the entire country. The experience of the past twenty years indicates that it is very difficult to increase the demand for lemons. In view of the difficulties involved, however, real progress has been made, and much of this progress can be attributed to the activities of the California Fruit Growers Exchange. PRICES Wide Fluctuation in Prices. — The annual average prices of lemons f.o.b. California from 1909-10 to 1926-27 are shown in figure 10. It will be noted that these prices fluctuate widely from year to year, and Annual Average Price of Lemons, F.O.B. California, 1910-1927 itOCM^tOi-ieOWtOtOCM^^^ OJ^ttOK 5.00 1 4.00 ^3.00 I 2-00 Q 1.00 / \ / \ / \ / \ "^ / > v — / \ \ / \ / \ / ■**** f \ / > f \ / \ / o CM CM CM CM Crop year (ending in the year given) Fig. 10. — The prices of lemons fluctuate widely from year to year. (Data from table 15.) that the high prices are frequently twice as much as the low prices. These price fluctuations were a result of a combination of factors, the mere important of which were changes in the total supply of lemons available for consumption in the United States and changes in the temperature in the consuming markets. During the past eighteen years 90 per cent of the total variation in price can be accounted for by these two factors. Effect of Supply upon Price. — The relation between the United States supply of lemons (California shipments plus imports minus exports) and their annual average price f.o.b. California, after cor- recting for the effects of changes in temperature in the consuming 20 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION markets, is shown in figure 11. The solid line in figure 11 represents the fluctuations in the supply of lemons above and below normal, expressed as a percentage of the trend. The broken line represents the fluctuations in the price after those changes which were caused by variations in temperature have been removed. Throughout the entire eighteen year period from 1910 to 1927 the corrected price varied inversely with supply. A large" supply was accompanied by a United States Supply of Lemons and the Average Annual Prices of California Lemons after Correcting for Changes in Summer Temperatures, 1910-1927 +50 1+25 u § £ o t % -50 PR ICE- 4 X +' s ^ "*~3 v --* .— ^•s -—■*/ >^w \ \ / / / \ N >UPP / f LY - p**™ f > tHrHiHrHrHiHiHrHiHi-1 CO CM CM CM CM CM CM <\l Crop year (ending in the year given) Fig. 11. — The price of lemons varies inversely with the supply. The fluctu- ations in prices, however, are much greater than the fluctuations in supply, which indicates that the demand for lemons is relatively inelastic. (The curve of supply represents percentages above and below a trend fitted to the figures in table 14, column 4. The curve of price represents the fluctuations in prices remaining after the effects of changes in the summer temperature departures from normal in fourteen important lemon-consuming markets of the United States have been removed. The price data from which this curve was derived are given in table 15, column 1.) low price; a small supply by a high price. 'It -will -be 'noted, however, that the fluctuations in price are much greater than the fluctuation in supply. On the average a change of 1 per cent in the supply is accom- panied by a change of 3 per cent in price. This is evidence that the demand for lemons is relatively inelastic. People do not buy many more lemons because of a decline in price nor do they greatly reduce their purchases because of a rise in price. The chief reason why the demand for lemons tends to be inelastic is that their cost is very often only a small part of the cost of the product in which they are used. Lemonade and lemon ice are about the only food products in which lemons are the principal ingredient, BUL. 460] LEMONS 21 and even in these foods the cost of the fruit makes up only a part of the total cost. In the preparation of many other foods, lemons consti- tute an important but relatively trifling item in the cost. These foods are seldom prepared without lemons even when lemon prices are high, but on the other hand, no larger quantity is used when prices are low. The cost of the fruit used is so small as compared with the total cost of the product that a material change in the price of lemons has but little weight in determining whether the product will be made or not. The fact that the demand for lemons is relatively inelastic is of considerable significance. With a given demand situation a material decline in price is necessary in order to dispose of a surplus because consumption does not respond promptly to a lowering of price. On the other hand a comparatively small shortage in supply will cause prices to rise rapidly because such a rise does not greatly retard consumption. Because the demand for lemons is inelastic a small crop brings more than a large crop, assuming of course that other factors such as imports and temperatures remain constant. Not only is the price per box materially reduced by an increase in the supply but the total amount of money which growers receive is also reduced. Within certain limits the more lemons growers ship, the less money they get. Consequently the large increase in production in this state during recent years has been particularly serious. If all of the lemons that were produced in the last two years had been shipped, it would have resulted in a very much smaller gross return than was received. Through limitation of shipments the California Fruit Growers Exchange has saved the lemon industry millions of dollars and many lemon growers from ruin. It is possible, of course, for a reduction in shipments from Cali- fornia to be carried so far as to result unfavorably to the lemon industry of the state. If prices were greatly increased through a decrease in domestic shipments, foreign lemons would be attracted, and the increase in imports might more than offset the decrease in domestic supplies. Such a situation would lower both prices and total returns to California growers. It should be recognized that the disposal of merchantable fruit by sending it to by-product plants or dumping it is a temporary and not a permanent solution of the problem. From the standpoint of the welfare of the state there is too large an acreage of lemons. By reducing the acreage the same results could be obtained as by limiting shipments, and the costs of growing the fruit now sent to by-product plants could be saved. The land devoted to the production of the 22 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION excess lemons could be used in growing other crops from which a profit might be obtained. Effect of Temperature upon Price. — During the summer months lemons are used extensively in the preparation of lemonade and lemon ice. Hot weather stimulates the demand for these foods, cool weather retards it, The relation between the average temperature departures from normal in fourteen consuming markets during the four months from June to September and the average annual price after correcting for change in supply is shown in figure 12. It will be noted that Average Summer Temperature Departures from Normal in Fourteen Main Lemon Markets and Average Annual Prices of California Lemons after Correcting for Changes in Supply, 1910-1927 60 + 40^ o> u -p + 20 d 3 +4 Z + 2 § n g-2 faO ° A T EMPERATUR *9 > 4 * % £ ^ if if >/ *•« A V rf V 1 / v^. jEL* ' ^^ PR CE^ /> -4 -ft '20 '40 60 o fH CM to CM CM CM CM CD CO o> o» CM CM o> Ok Crop year (ending in the year given) Fig. 12. — Changes in temperatures in the consuming markets have an important effect upon the prices of lemons. (Data on temperature departures from normal compiled from U. S. Dept. Agr. Weather Bureau, Monthly Weather Review, monthly issues. Data are an average of temperature departures from normal in fourteen principal lemon markets of the United States during the four months of June to September. The curve of price represents the fluctuations in prices remaining after the effects of changes in the total supply of lemons available for consumption in the United States have been removed. The price data from which this curve was derived are given in table 15, column 1.) when temperatures were above normal, prices were high, and that when temperatures were below normal, prices were low. On the average 1 degree change in temperature resulted in a change of 50 cents per box in price. Figure 12 shows that on the average the summer of 1925 was unusually warm while the summer of 1927 was unusually cold. During each of these periods there were, of course, considerable fluctuations in temperatures from normal. The effect of these short-time fluctuations upon prices is shown in figure 13, It will Bul. 460] LEMONS 23 be noted that the major changes in temperature departures from normal were accompanied by corresponding changes in prices. If the effects of changes in supply were eliminated as they were in figure 12 the correspondence would be even closer. Up to the present time, however, it has not been possible to forecast accurately the changes in temperature departures from normal. Average Weekly F.O.B. Prices of California Lemons and Average Weekly Temperature Departures from Normal in Fourteen Cities in the United States, 1925 and 1927 10 8 8 CO * 4 o « 2 1 / i \ ■ — i — - ■ / / \ \ VTUF \ 1 J i/ *-* \ \ f^l V TEMPER> / . ^ I \ / i ."' ^ X f 4 NORMAL — ^ ' H ^■^ / ^ / PRICE \ / - +10 +6 S a 13 20 27 June 11 18 25 1 July 8 15 22 29 Aug. 5 12 19 26 Sept. +2 •2 2 6« 10 10 8 8 JO * 6 o « 2 PRICE v^ / 1/ K**\ \ \ / \ rl \ NORMAL -\- — . _!. 1 ^„ / f \ / \ t **N **7 f • l "FMF \ FRA" niRF S ^ i I 1 \ L +10 +6 5 a +2 2 2 4) h -6 S ~ 4 11 18 25 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 3 10 17 24 1 June July Aug. Sept. Fig. 13. — Prices of lemons tend to respond quickly to short-time changes in temperatures. (Data from table 4.) Consequently, under the present system in which all of the lemons are stored in California, marketing organizations have not been able to take full advantage of the changes in demand. Lemons which were available in the consuming markets when temperatures were above normal sold readily at high prices, and sometimes more could have been sold if they had been available. But the high prices were often of no benefit in selling the lemons that were two weeks time from the markets. By 24 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION the time they reached the markets, cool weather may have prevailed, in which case low prices instead of high prices were obtained. Effect of Amount of Sickness upon Price. — As contrasted with the violent fluctuations during the summer months lemon prices are rela- tively stable during the winter months. The principal factor affecting changes in the demand for lemons in the winter appears to be the amount of sickness such as cold and influenza. Lemons are used widely as a remedy for these ailments. Consequently, a serious outbreak TABLE 4 Average Weekly F.O.B. Prices of California Lemons and Average Weekly Temperature Departures from Normal in Fourteen Cities in the F.O.B. price per packed box Temperature departures from normal 1925 1927 1925 1927 Week ending Dollars Week ending Dollars Week ending Degrees Week ending Degrees 5.82 7.76 6.43 4.56 3.96 4.26 ' 5.08 4.54 3.31 2.56 2.72 3.49 4 10 5.36 7.24 7.08 7.42 6,23 3.51 3.65 4.12 3.71 3.96 4.60 5.60 6.15 5.83 5.93 5.64 5.07 4.90 4.91 6.26 9.60 7.38 7.02 + 0.6 +12.0 + 2.4 + 3.6 - 2.0 + 2.3 + 3.4 - 0.5 - 2.4 - 6.2 + 0.7 + 2.0 + 0.4 + 2.7 + 7.6 + 6.4 + 5.7 + 0.1 May 31 -3.4 13 11 9 -5 1 20 18. .. 16 14 .. -0.6 27 25. . .. 23 21 -7.3 July 3 July 2 .... 30 28 -2.6 11 9 July 7 July 5 -0.4 18 16... 14 12 -1.8 25 23 21 19 +2.3 30 28 26 -3.1 g Aug. 6 Aug. 2 +0.4 15 13 11 18 25 9 -3.7 22 . 20 16 -2.7 29.. . 27 23 -5.0 Sept 5 Sept. 3 Sept. 1 30 -6.1 12 10.. 8 Sept. 6 +2.2 19 . . . 17 15 13 +5.6 26 24 22 20 +6,5 Oct 3 Oct. 1.... 29 27 -4 3 Sources of data: F.O.B. prices compiled by the California Fruit Growers Exchange. Temperature departures from normal compiled from U. S. Dept. Agr. Weather Bureau, Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin. Data are an average of temperature departures from normal in the following cities: Atlanta, Baltimore, Boston, Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Detroit, Kansas City, Memphis, New York, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, and St. Paul. greatly increases the demand while the lack of the usual amount retards it, According to the annual reports of the California Fruit Growers Exchange the pronounced rise in the price of lemons in February, 1920, and in March, 1926, was largely due to influenza epidemics. On the other hand the demand for lemons was below normal in the winters of 1923-24 and 1926-27, largely because of the absence of the usual amount of sickness. Bul. 460] LEMONS 25 Seasonal Variation in Lemon Prices. — It has already been pointed out that during a given year prices of lemons fluctuate considerably, being high at some periods and low at others. The question arises as to whether these high and low prices tend to be repeated at the same periods year after year. In other words, over a period of years have prices been higher on the average in some months than in others, and if so, how much higher ? The answer to the question is shown by the Seasonal Variations in the Prices of California Lemons, Average 1913-14 to 1926-27, Annual 1925-26 and 1926-27 (Crop-year average price equals 100 per cent.) Average ID o> o> CM O 1-4 O o O e- U5 a> o> Crop year (ending in the year given) Fig. 15. — During recent years the farm prices of lemons have averaged con- siderably below the pre-war level, whereas the prices of commodities in general have been considerably above the pre-war level. (Data from table 15.) UNITED STATES FOREIGN TRADE IN LEMONS Imports.— During the past five years approximately 20 per cent of the lemons consumed in the United States were imported. Before the war the proportion was much larger, amounting to over 50 per cent. The changes in the United States imports of lemons during the past twenty years is shown in figure 16. The period from 1908 to 1919 is characterized by a pronounced downward trend, being inter- * The Bureau of Labor Statistics all commodity index of wholesale prices in the United States is used to measure the changes in the general price level. 28 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION rupted only in 1913 and 1914, the two years of very short crops in California, One cause for this decline was the large decrease in lemon production in Italy, which is the source of practically all of the United States lemon imports. Another cause was the activity of the California marketing organization in extending the markets for domestic lemons. United States Imports of Lemons, 1908-1927 we- rM © o o >-*& CO rH i-H <-) rH M CM H < H H r-i t-H r-i r-\ H r-4 3,000 2,500 2,000 CO 9 g * 1,500 o o o * 1,000 500 XX 9 ri *i w ** u>»e- o> o> o> o> o> o> o>o>cncno>cno>o>o>o>o>o>cn iHi-« ,-«,-< pH rtt-l i-l r-1 r-i i-H r-lrHiHi-lr-i r-« iHrHi-l Crop year ending Ootober 31 Fig. 16. — There was a substantial decrease in the United States imports of lemons between 1908 and 1919. Since 1919 the downward trend has continued, but it has been much less pronounced. (Data from table 14, column 2.) Since 1919 there has been only a small downward trend in imports, lemon production in Italy has been maintained at approximately the same level during recent years, and consequently there has been no great change in the amount of lemons available for export from that country. The small decrease in our imports appears to have been largely the result of the increase in the tariff of 1922. During the past four years the imports of lemons have fluctuated around 1,000,000 boxes a year. Since the average lemon crop in California is now large enough to supply all of the lemons which the United States annually consumes, the importation of foreign lemons tends to force a corresponding amount of domestic lemons into by- products from which growers receive practically no returns. A sub- stantial reduction in imports would enable domestic producers to sell practically all of their merchantable lemons at the same price as they Bul. 460] LEMONS 29 are now receiving for only a part of them. This would go far toward relieving the present unsatisfactory condition in the California lemon industry. In figure 1 6 it will be noted that imports during recent years have fluctuated violently. An important cause for these fluctuations has been the changes in the prices of lemons in this country. When prices are high, imports tend to increase; when prices are low, they tend to decline. By limiting domestic shipments growers could obtain higher prices, but if prices should go very high for a considerable period of time, heavy supplies of foreign lemons would be attracted, which would tend to force prices down. TABLE 5 United States Imports of Lemons, November, 1922, to October, 1927 (Boxes of 75 pounds net.) Average Months 1922-23 1923-24 1924-25 1925-26 1926-27 1922-23 to 1926-27 1,000 boxes 1,000 boxes 1,000 boxes 1,000 boxes 1,000 boxes 1,000 boxes per cent 100 90 100 34 21 12 10 52 54 49 50 27 2 4 36 39 43 46 3.4 3.7 4.0 February 39 28 72 36 17 39 3.4 March 218 20 82 54 17 79 6.8 April 154 25 124 104 23 86 7.5 May 186 80 229 141 75 142 12.3 June 350 207 433 312 171 294 25.5 July 321 103 241 165 178 202 17.5 August 98 38 82 83 102 80 7.0 September 116 39 46 46 64 62 5.4 October 42 11 89 12 45 40 3.5 Total 1,814 618 1,514 1,079 734 1,152 100 Source of data: U. S. Dept. of Commerce, Monthly Summary of Foreign Commerce of the United States, monthly issues. Foreign lemons come into the United States every month of the year (table 5). The bulk of them, however, are imported during the three months of May, June, and July, thus competing directly with our lemons during the period of our heaviest shipments. Exports. — Lemon exports from the United States, although still relatively unimportant, have increased from 60,000 boxes in 1913 to 340,000 boxes in 1927. The average exports during the past five years have amounted to 234,000 boxes, which is equal to only 5 per cent of our domestic shipments. Canada is our most important foreign market for lemons, taking on the average 80 per cent of our total exports. Most of the remain- ing 20 per cent go to China, Japan, Philippine Islands, and New 30 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA — EXPERIMENT STATION Zealand. The United States is the main source of the Canadian supply of lemons. The only other country from which Canada imports appreciable quantities is Italy. In New Zealand, Australia is our principal competitor. New Zealand, however, is a very limited market, taking" only from 12,000 to 15,000 boxes a year. The United States exports lemons every month of the year but principally during the five months of March to July (table 6). TABE 6 United States Exports of Lemons, November, 1922, to October, 1927 Month 1922-23 1923-24 1924-25 1925-26 1926-27 Average 1922-23 to 1926-27 November 1,000 boxes 8 10 14 17 18 13 22 17 11 13 6 16 1,000 boxes 17 18 14 19 26 29 30 27 26 11 10 14 1,000 boxes 10 13 10 10 15 21 21 13 17 11 5 9 1,000 boxes 14 15 14 13 22 32 37 29 32 25 16 21 1,000 boxes 22 33 27 28 36 39 47 41 27 22 8 10 1,000 boxes 14 18 16 17 23 27 31 25 23 17 9 14 per cent 6 7 6 6 7 7.5 10 April 11.5 May 13.4 June July August September 10.9 9.7 7.0 3.8 5.9 Total 165 241 155 270 340 234 100.0 Source of data: U. S. Dept. of Commerce, Monthly Summary of Foreign Commerce of the United States, monthly issues. FOREIGN LEMON-PRODUCING COUNTRIES The principal lemon-producing countries of the world, other than the United States, are Italy, Spain, and Australia. Italy. — Italy is the largest lemon-producing country of the world. Since 1920 Italian lemon production has remained fairly stationary at around 9,700,000 boxes a year (table 7). Before 1920, however, there was a downward trend in production. The average production during the two years of 1914 and 1915 was 3,000,000 boxes larger than the average from 1920 to 1925. Approximately 50 per cent of the Italian lemons are exported in the fresh form. Exports during the five years of 1922 to 1926 have averaged 1,755,000 boxes lower than from 1909 to 1913. Table 8 shows the principal markets for Italian lemons during the two five-year periods of 1909-1913 and 1922-1926. It will be noted that during both of these periods the three countries, Germany, United Bul. 460] LEMONS 31 TABLE 7 Lemon Production in Italy, Spain, and Australia (Boxes of 75 pounds net.) Italy Spain Australia Year 1 2 3 1914 1,000 boxes 12,549 12,940 16,138 9,080 10,700 10,447 9,965 8,798 10,087 9,332 10,080 9,814 1,000 boxes 1,000 boxes 1915 198 1916 176 1917 204 1918 242 1919 236 1920 256 1921 272 1922 1923 810 303 272 1924 265 1925 292 1926 1,395 333 Sources of data: Column 1. U. S. Dept. Agr. Bur. Agr. Econ. Foreign News on Citrus. F. S. CF-42: 6. 1927. Column 2. International Institute of Agriculture. International Yearbook of Agricultural Statistics, 1926-27, p. 34. 1927. Column 3. Commonwealth of Australia, Official Year Book, annual numbers. TABLE 8 Exports of Lemons from Italy by Countries of Destination, Average 1909-13 and 1922-26 (Boxes of 75 pounds net.) Country of Volume exported Percentage exported destination 1909-13 1922-26 1909-13 1922-26 1,000 boxes 1,382 1,000 boxes 259 228 96 100 326 1,196 1,064 per cent 18.7 per cent 4.6 4.1 1.7 1.8 90 997 1,425 615 86 182 1,999 605 1.2 13.5 19.3 8.3 12 2.5 27.1 8.2 5.8 21.3 United Kingdom 18.9 Switzerland 170 166 1,254 767 3.0 2.9 United Stat est. . 22.3 Others 13.6 Total 7,381 5,626 100.0 100 * Austria-Hungary. t United States imports from Italy. These figures do not agree with the Italian exports to the United States which are reported as 2,449,000 boxes, average 1909-13 and 1,226,000 boxes average 1922-26. Sources of data: Years 1909-13 compiled from U. S. Dept. Agr. Bur. Agr. Econ. Foreign Crops and Markets 14: 243, 1927, except for United States which are from U. S. Dept. Commerce, Monthly Summary of Foreign Commerce of the United States, monthly issues. Years 1922-26 compiled from Moriarity, D. J. Italian foreign trade in fresh fruits. U. S. Dept. of Commerce, Commerce Reports 30: 478. 1927; except for United States, which are from U. S. Dept. Com- merce, Monthly Summary of Foreign Commerce of the United States, monthly issues. 32 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION States and United Kingdom, took about 60 per cent of the total Italian exports. The decrease in the percentage of the Italian exports to the United States and Great Britain was offset by the increase to Germany. Spain. — Indications are that there has been a substantial increase in Spanish lemon production during recent years. According to the International Yearbook of Agricultural Statistics, 1926-27, the acreage of lemons in Spain increased from 4,300 acres in 1922 to 7,300 acres in 1926. The estimated lemon production in 1926 amounted to 1,395,000 boxes. 5 Exports of lemons from Spain have increased from 176,000 boxes in 1922 to 367,000 boxes in 1926. Australia. — In 1926 Australia produced 333,000 boxes of lemons, which is 30,000 boxes larger than the record crop of 1922 and 40,000 boxes larger than the five-year (1922-26) average. Although the trend of lemon production in Australia is upward, the amount now produced is very small as compared with that in the United States, Italy, and Spain. Consequently, Australia is not likely to become an important factor in the world situation for many years. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors of this bulletin wish to express their thanks and indebtedness to the following organizations which have generously contributed from their data and their time : California Fruit Growers Exchange; California Cooperative Crop Reporting Service; Bureau of Agricultural Economics, United States Department of Agriculture ; Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, United States Depart- ment of Commerce; California Farm Bureau Federation; California Agricultural Legislative Committee ; and the Division of Agricultural Economics, University of California. Professor Robert W. Hodgson, Division of Subtropical Horticulture, University of California, Mr. Warren R. Schoonover, Extension Specialist in Citriculture, and the farm advisors in the important lemon-producing counties have also furnished much valuable information. 5 International Institute of Agriculture. International Yearbook of Agricul- tural Statistics, 1926-27:34. Rome, Italy. 1927. Bul. 460' LEMONS 33 APPENDIX OF TABLES TABLE 9 California Lemon Acreage by Counties; Bearing Acreage, 1921-1928, and Non-Bearing Acreage, 1928 Bearing acreage Non- bearing County 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 acreage 1928* 670 46 553 48 23 2,820 180 10 868 46 700 99 23 2,872 180 10 868 46 700 99 23 2,890 190 10 869 46 700 100 23 2,907 200 10 867 46 700 98 23 2,937 230 10 852 7 729 93 23 2,970 260 12 858 15 720 93 30 2,997 280 12 4 18 2,683 39,324 11,898 6,622 3,810 5,429 4,257 1,565 5,743 843 Butte 720 93 30 2,994 280 8 32 20 56 2,574 38,776 11,352 7,080 4,822 4,831 4,100 1,035 5,556 6 2,676 38,788 11,263 7,050 4,880 4,887 4,200 1,140 5,368 13 2,677 39,263 11,263 7,000 4,938 4,943 4,380 1,250 5,489 19 2,678 39,439 11,263 6,900 5,005 5,000 4,300 1,360 5,611 15 2,682 40,466 11,740 6,850 5,155 5,431 4,250 1,365 5,675 16 2,682 39,995 11,807 6,815 4,485 5,523 4,054 1,565 5,746 18 2,688 39,027 11,520 6,531 3,694 5,434 4,382 1,625 5,841 j 11 2,184 224 597 20 443 115 785 Total California 42,266 42,528 43,021 43,215 44,270 43,816 43,179 42,864 2,216 * Does not include 451 acres planted in 1927. Source of data: Revised figures compiled by N. I. Nielsen, Fruit Statistician, California Cooperative Crop Reporting Service. TABLE 10 Ca-rlot Shipments of Lemons by Districts and Counties, California, 1920-21 to 1926-27 Crop year November to October District or county 1920-21 1921-22 1922-23 1923-24 1924-25 1925-26 1926-27* Northern district cars 9 207 3,650 2,010 1,009 419 1,261 1,113 2,158 cars 14 117 1,998 1,781 1,171 515 795 1,200 2,316 cars 54 229 1,635 1,475 999 580 509 1,203 2,262 cars 74 151 3,147 2,171 1,391 584 1,663 1,236 2,911 cars 38 155 2,581 1,584 1,076 538 1,383 1,511 2,811 cars 61 266 3,795 1,674 1,211 636 1,836 1,529 2,973 cars 154 Central district 331 Los Angeles 3,510 Orange 1,585 1,301 67"7 1,610 1,428 2,926 Total 11,836 9,907 8,946 13,388 11,680 13,981 13,522 * Preliminary data, subject to revision. Sources of data: U. S. Dept. Agr. Bur. Agr. Econ. Unpublished data (revised) except for the 10 months of January to October, 1927, which are from: Yoeman, Opal V. Summary of carlot shipments of important fruits and vegetables in California, Arizona, and Nevada, 1927. U. S. Dept. Agr. Bur. Agr. Econ., mimeographed circular, 1928. 34 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION TABLE 11 Caklot Shipments of Lemons, California by Months, 1920-21 to 1926-27 Year Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Total cars cars cars cars cars cars cars cars cars cars cars cars cars 1920-21 428 396 682 727 931 1,120 1,471 2,236 1,803 574 881 587 11,836 1921-22 395 500 593 671 918 956 1,816 1,665 840 769 480 304 9,907 1922-23 381 358 679 616 664 838 1,274 1,415 808 671 561 681 8,946 1923-24 428 606 747 798 1,069 1,608 2,134 2,086 1,251 1,371 763 527 13,388 1924-25 601 594 653 598 860 961 1,754 1,946 1,581 730 683 719 11,680 1925-26 468 636 689 571 1,387 1,193 2,382 1,975 1,902 1,399 592 787 13,981 1926-27* 636 752 1,044 719 1,201 1,354 1,972 2,197 1,598 914 499 636 13,522 Source of data, see table 12. TABLE 12 Monthly Carlot Shipments of Lemons by Districts and Counties, California, 1924-25 to 1926-27 District or county Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. cars cars cars cars cars cars cars cars cars cars cars cars 9 6 10 14 7 4 2 3 2 2 5 4 6 15 4 11 33 36 ?A 19 n 8 I ?, 4 4 11 32 35 18 19 10 5 ?, 23 35 76 73 as 30 12 10 7 19 45 89 54 62 28 8 8 1 4 13 131 150 132 110 161 195 383 451 345 156 169 198 147 198 183 151 364 296 644 514 485 395 181 237 227 231 266 174 281 318 512 575 419 154 136 217 58 70 62 92 149 165 243 267 239 87 63 89 31 43 35 45 165 164 340 339 252 159 39 62 51 72 91 67 144 183 255 267 183 198 30 44 110 51 72 73 86 65 193 185 112 36 42 51 35 40 77 87 187 155 273 124 107 53 24 49 39 59 107 82 167 191 244 234 79 9 38 52 43 26 32 21 38 36 53 66 70 36 61 56 25 25 21 21 42 39 69 84 108 100 52 50 37 40 51 43 53 47 53 104 91 47 61 50 101 102 111 79 106 81 172 228 162 84 77 80 93 113 127 105 226 151 255 198 193 157 82 136 89 107 154 109 158 171 232 268 169 76 23 54 54 69 96 114 143 185 269 230 169 66 51 65 48 53 82 64 175 183 323 205 219 114 21 42 25 47 112 67 131 181 244 304 157 79 32 49 84 84 106 89 158 224 436 511 482 265 220 152 48 74 87 69 192 178 464 511 536 421 193 200 138 128 138 99 186 213 416 436 500 348 171 153 Total Northern district 1924-25 1925-26 1926-27* Central district: 1924-25 1925-26 1926-27* Los Angeles: 1924-25 1925-26 1926-27* Orange: 1924-25 1925-26 1926-27* Riverside: 1924-25 1925-26 1926-27* Santa Barbara: 1924-25 1925-26 1926-27* San Bernardino: 1924-25 1925-26 1926-27* San Diego: 1924-25 1925-26 1926-27* Ventura: 1924-25 1925-26 1926-27* cars 38 61 154 155 266 331 2,581 3,795 3,510 1,584 1,674 1,585 1,076 1,211 1,301 538 636 677 1,383 1,836 1,610 1,511 1,529 1,428 2,811 2,973 2,926 * Data for January to October, 1927, are preliminary and subject to revision. Sources of data: U. S. Dept. Agr. Bur. Agr. Econ. Unpublished data (revised), except for the 10 months of January to October, 1927, which are from Yoeman, Opal V. Summary of carlot shipments of important fruits and vegetables in California, Arizona, and Nevada, 1927. U. S. Dept. Agr. Bur. Agr. Econ., mimeographed circular, 1928. Bul. 460] LEMONS 35 TABLE 13 Lemon" Shipments from California, 1908-1927, and Estimated Commercial Production, 1916-1927 Mixed car Total Estimated Carlot shipments and local ship- pro- Year shipments ments duction ending Oct. 31 1 2 3 4 5 cars 1,000 boxes 1,000 boxes 1,000 boxes 1,000 boxes 1908 4,959 1,597 1,597 1909 6,196 2,020 2,020 1910 4,891 1,628 1,628 1911 6,891 2,315 2,315 1912 6,133 2,147 2,147 1913 2,304 866 866 1914 3,032 7,068 1,155 2,601 1,155 2,601 1915 1916 7,186 2,713 2,713 2,800 1917 7,915 3,027 225 3,252 3,400 1918 6,337 2,498 167 2,665 2,700 1919 10,007 4,036 237 4,273 4,700 1920 9,045 3,737 206 3,943 4,500 1921 11,805 4,728 207 4,935 5,600 1922 9,926 3,859 168 4,027 4,400 1923 8,741 3,198 191 3,389 3,500 1924 13,097 4,898 269 5,167 6,500 1925 11,758 4,185 334 4,519 5,100 1926 13,610 4,807 401 5,208 6,700 1927 13,437 4,750 358 5,108 7,500 Sources of data: Column 1. Compiled by the California Fruit Growers Exchange from railroad reports of carlot shipments at points of passing. Column 2. Number of cars in column 1 converted to boxes on the basis of the California Fruit Growers Exchange average load, which has varied from 322 to 414.6 boxes per car at different periods. Column 3. Compiled by the California Fruit Growers Exchange. Includes only mixed car and local shipments of that organization. Data prior to 1917 are not available. Column 4. Shipments plus estimated tonnage sent to by-product plants and dumped. 36 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATION TABLE 14 United States Shipments, Imports, Exports, and Per-Capita Consumption of Lemons, 1908-1927 (Boxes of 75 pounds net.) Year ending Oct. 31 Domestic shipments Imports Domestic exports Supply available for con- sumption Per- capita con- sumption 1 2 3 4 5 1908 1,000 boxes 1,597 1,000 boxes 2,107 1,000 boxes 1,000 boxes 3,704 lemons 13.7 1909 2,020 1,901 3,921 14.3 1910 1,627 1,934 3,561 12.7 1911 2,315 1,837 4,152 14.6 1912 2,147 1,695 3,842 13.3 1913 866 2,335 65 3,136 10.7 1914 1,155 2,975 85 4,045 13.6 1915 2,601 1,699 141 4,159 13.8 1916 2,713 1,477 171 4,019 13.2 1917 3,252 1,137 163 4,226 13 6 1918 2,665 1,074 162 3,577 11.4 1919 4,273 825 311 4,787 15.0 1920 3,943 1,526 295 5,174 16.0 1921 4,935 779 313 5,401 16 4 1922 4,027 1,338 193 5,172 15.5 1923 3,389 1,814 165 5,038 14.9 1924 5,167 618 241 5,544 16.1 1925 4,519 1,514 155 5,878 16.8 1926 5,208 1,079 270 6,017 17.0 1927 5,108 734 340 5,502 15.3 Sources of data: Column 1. From table 13, column 4. Column 2. Data for periods November 1907 to September 1913, and October 1921 to October 1927 compiled from U. S. Dept. Commerce, Monthly Summary of Foreign Commerce of the United States monthly issues. Data are given in pounds and were converted to boxes on the basis of 75 pounds per box. Data for the period October 1913, to September 1921, from U. S. Dept. Commerce, Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, by correspondence. During this period most of the import data are given in packages dutiable at 18 cents, 35 cents, and 70 cents. Those dutiable at 18 cents were considered to be equal to one-half of a box weighing 72 pounds net; those dutiable at 35 cents, equal to one box; and those dutiable at 70 cents, equal to two boxes. The total boxes were then converted to standard California boxes which weigh 75 pounds net. Data for years 1913 to 1921 are for period ending September 30. Column 3. U. S. Dept. Commerce, Monthly Summary of Foreign Commerce of the United States monthly issues. Exports were not reported separately prior to July 1, 1912. Column 4. Domestic shipments plus imports minus exports. Column 5. Supplies available for consumption converted to number of lemons on the basis of 330 lemons per box and divided by the mid-year estimates of population of the United States taken from Statistical Abstract of the United States. Bul. 460] LEMONS 37 TABLE 15 Annual Average F.O.B. Price and Estimated Farm Price on the Tree of California Lemons, 1910-1927 F.O.B. price Estimated farm price on the tree All- commodity wholesale Crop year* Dollars per packed box Dollars per packed box Per cent of 1910-14 avg. price index 1 2 3 4 1909-10 3 41 2 41 96 104 1910-11 3 01 2 02 81 95 1911-12 2.86 1 86 74 99 1912-13 4.99 3.78 151 102 1913-14 3.62 2 47 98 100 1914-15 1.60 .58 23 101 1915-16 3.11 2.09 83 117 1916-17 3.06 1 92 77 165 1917-18 5.12 3.75 150 192 1918-19 3.64 2.07 83 206 1919-20 2.75 .97 39 236 1920-21 4.00 2 12 85 158 1921-22 4.05 2.23 89 149 1922-23 4.83 3.12 124 158 1923-24 2.59 .79 31 152 1924-25 4 55 2.63 105 161 1925-26 3.27 1.38 55 155 1926-27 3.97 1.71 68 149 • Years 1909-10 to 1918-19, September to August. Years 1919-20 to 1926-27, November to October. Sources of data: Column 1. California Fruit Growers Exchange. Column 2. Derived from data in column 1 as follows: Expenses of selling, packing, hauling, and picking were subtracted from the f .o.b. prices to obtain the price on the tree of the packed boxes shipped. These prices were then multiplied by the total boxes shipped (table 13, column 4) and the result divided by the total boxes produced (table 13, column 5). Column 4. U. S. Bur. of Labor Statistics index numbers of wholesale prices of all commodities con- verted to 1910-14 base published in The Agricultural Situation. TABLE 16 Average Monthly Prices* per Box Eeceived for Lemons, F.O.B. California, by the California Fruit Growers Exchange, November, 1922, to October, 1927 Month November December. January February .... March April May June July August September October 1922-23 1923-24 1924-25 1925-26 dollars dollars dollars dollars 5.42 2.38 4 45 3.14 4.63 2 10 3.42 3.08 4 03 2.02 3.78 2 87 4.40 2.23 3 83 3 40 3.43 2 36 3.45 3.71 3.99 2.73 4.26 3.38 4.96 2 22 5.60 3.81 6 40 2.49 4 94 2 97 5.92 2.47 3 80 3 62 6 11 3 17 4 81 2 64 4.28 3 08 6 67 2 83 2 61 4.71 4 25 2.68 1926-27 dollars 2.68 90 . 60 .56 .83 75 40 13 .74 38 .49 35 * Prices are weighted average prices for lemons shipped during the month shown. Source of data: California Fruit Growers Exchange. STATION PUBLICATIONS AVAILABLE FOB FBEE DISTKIBUTION No. 253. Irrigation and Soil Conditions in the Sierra Nevada Foothills, California. 262. Citrus Diseases of Florida and Cuba Compared with those of California. 263. Size Grades for Ripe Olives. 268. Growing and Grafting Olive Seedlings. 277. Sudan Grass. 278. Grain Sorghums. 279. Irrigation of Rice in California. 283. The Olive Insects of California. 304. A Study of the Effects of Freezes on Citrus in California. 310. Plum Pollination. 313. Pruning Young Deciduous Fruit Trees. 324. Storage of Perishable Fruits at Freez- ing Temperatures. 328. Prune Growing in California. 331. Phylloxera-resistant Stocks. 335. Cocoanut Meal as a Feed for Dairy Cows and Other Livestock. 340. Control of the Pocket Gopher in California. 343. Cheese Pests and Their Control. 344. Cold Storage as an Aid to the Mar- keting of Plums, a Progress Report. 347. The Control of Red Spiders in Decid- uous Orchards. 348. Pruning Young Olive Trees. 349. A Study of Sidedraft and Tractor Hitches. 350. Agriculture in Cut-Over Redwood Lands. 353. Bovine Infectious Abortion, and As- sociated Diseases of Cattle and New- born Calves. 354. Results of Rice Experiments in 1922. 357. A Self -Mixing Dusting Machine for Applying Dry Insecticides and Fun- gicides. 358. Black Measles, Water Berries, and Related Vine Troubles. 361. Preliminary Yield Tables for Second- Growth Redwood. 362. Dust and the Tractor Engine. 363. The Pruning of Citrus Trees in Cali- fornia. 364. Fungicidal Dusts for the Control of Bunt. 366. Turkish Tobacco Culture, Curing, and Marketing. 367. Methods of Harvesting and Irrigation in Relation to Moldy Walnuts. 368. Bacterial Decomposition of Olives During Pickling. 369. Comparison of Woods for Butter Boxes. 370. Factors Influencing the Development of Internal Browning of the Yellow Newton Apple. 371. The Relative Cost of Yarding Small and Large Timber. 373. Pear Pollination. 374. A Survey of Orchard Practices in the Citrus Industry of Southern California. 375. Results of Rice Experiments at Cor- tena, 1923, and Progress in Experi- ments in Water Grass Control at the Biggs Rice Field Station, 1922-23. 377. The Cold Storage of Pears. 380. Growth of Eucalyptus in California Plantations. 382. Pumping for Draininge in the San Joaquin Valley, California. 385. Pollination of the Sweet Cherry. 386. Pruning Bearing Deciduous Fruit Trees. 387. Fig Smut. , 388. The Principles and Practice of Sun- Drying Fruit. BULLETINS No. 389. 390. 391. 392. 393. 394. 395. 396. 397. 398. 400. 402. 404. 405. 406. 407. 408. 409. 410. 411. 412. 414. 415. 416. 417. 418. 419. 420. 421. 422. 423. 424. 425. 426. 427. 428. 429. 430. 431. 432. 433. 434. 435. Berseem or Egyptian Clover. Harvesting and Packing Grapes in California. Machines for Coating Seed Wheat with Copper Carbonate Dust. Fruit Juice Concentrates. Crop Sequences at Davis. I. Cereal Hay Production in Cali- fornia. II. Feeding Trials with Cereal Hays. Bark Diseases of Citrus Trees in Cali- fornia. The Mat Bean, Phaseolus Aconitifo- lius. Manufacture of Roquefort Type Cheese from Goat's Milk. Orchard Heating in California. The Utilization of Surplus Plums. The Codling Moth in Walnuts. The Dehydration of Prunes. Citrus Culture in Central California. Stationary Spray Plants in California. Yield, Stand, and Volume Tables for White Fir in the California Pine Region. Alternaria Rot of Lemons. The Digestibility of Certain Fruit By- products as Determined for Rumi- nants. Part I. Dried Orange Pulp and Raisin Pulp. Factors Influencing the Quality of Fresh Asparagus after it is Har- vested. Paradichlorobenzene as a Soil Fumi- gant. A Study of the Relative Value of Cer- tain Root Crops and Salmon Oil as Sources of Vitamin A for Poultry. Planting and Thinning Distances for Deciduous Fruit Trees. The Tractor on California Farms. Culture of the Oriental Persimmon in California. Poultry Feeding: Principles and Prac- tice. A Study of Various Rations for Fin- ishing Range Calves as Baby Beeves. Economic Aspects of the Cantaloupe Industry. Rice and Rice By-Products as Feeds for Fattening Swine. Beef Cattle Feeding Trials, 1921-24. Cost of Producing Almonds in Cali- fornia : a Progress Report. Apricots (Series on California Crops and Prices). The Relation of Rate of Maturity to Egg Production. Apple Growing in California. Apple Pollination Studies in Cali- fornia. The Value of Orange Pulp for Milk Production. The Relation of Maturity of Cali- fornia Plums to Shipping and Dessert Quality. Economic Status of the Grape Industry. Range Grasses of California. Raisin By-Products and Bean Screen- ings as Feeds for Fattening Lambs. Some Economic Problems Involved in the Pooling of Fruit. Power Requirements of Electrically Driven Manufacturing Equipment. Investigations on the Use of Fruits in Ice Cream and Ices. The Problem of Securing Closer Relationship Between Agricultural Development and Irrigation Con- struction. No. 436. 437. 438. 439. 440. 441. 442. 443. 444. No. 87. 117. 127. 129. 136. 144. 157. 164. 166. 178. 202. 203. 209. 212. 215. 230. 231. 232. 234. 238. 239. 240. 241. 243. 244. 245. 248. 249. 250. 252. 253. 255. 257. 258. 259. 261. BULLETINS- I. The Kadota Fig. II. Kadota Fig Products. Economic Aspects of the Dairy In- dustry. Grafting Affinities with Special Refer- ence to Plums. The Digestibility of Certain Fruit By- products as Determined for Rumi- nants. Part II. Dried Pineapple Pulp, Dried Lemon Pulp, and Dried Olive Pulp. The Feeding Value of Raisins and Dairy By-Products for Growing and Fattening Swine. The Electric Brooder. Laboratory Tests of Orchard Heaters. Standardization and Improvement of California Butter. Series on California Crops and Prices: Beans. (Continued) No. Aspects of the Apple Id- 446. 447. 448. 449. 450. 452. Alfalfa. The selection and Cost of a Small Pumping Plant. House Fumigation. The control of Citrus Insects. Melilotus Indica as a Green-Manure Crop for California. Oidium or Powdery Mildew of the Vine. Control of Pear Scab. Small Fruit Culture in California. The County Farm Bureau. The Packing of Apples in California. County Organization for Rural Fire Control. Peat as a Manure Substitute. The Function of the Farm Bureau. Salvaging Rain-Damaged Prunes. Feeding Dairy Cows in California. Testing Milk, Cream, and Skim Milk for Butterfat. The Home Vineyard. Harvesting and Handling California Cherries for Eastern Shipment. Winter Injury to Young Walnut Trees During 1921-1922. The Apricot in California. Harvesting and Handling Apricots and Plums for Eastern Shipment. Harvesting and Handling California Pears for Eastern Shipment. Harvesting and Handling California Peaches for Eastern Shipment. Marmalade Juice and Jelly Juice from Citrus Fruits. Central Wire Bracing for Fruit Trees. Vine Pruning Systems. Some Common Errors in Vine Prun- ing and Their Remedies. Replacing Missing Vines. Measurement of Irrigation Water on the Farm. Support for Vines. Vineyard Plans. Leguminous Plants as Organic Fer- tilizers in California Agriculture. The Small-Seeded Horse Bean (Vicia faba var. minor). Thinning Deciduous Fruits. Pear By-Products. Sewing Grain Sacks. CIRCULARS No. 265. 266. 267. 269. 270. 273. 276. 277. 278. 279. 281. 282. 284. 286. 287. 288. 289. 290. 292. 293. 294. 296. 298. 300. 301. 302. 304. 305. 307. 308. 309. 310. 311. 312. Economic duBtry. The Asparagus Industry in California. The Method of Determining the Clean Weights of Individual Fleeces of Wool. Farmers' Purchase Agreement for Deep Well Pumps. Economic Aspects of the Watermelon Industry. Irrigation Investigations with Field Crops at Davis, and at Delhi, Cali- fornia. Studies Preliminary to the Establish- ment of a Series of Fertilizer Trials in a Bearing Citrus Grove. Economic Aspects of the Pear In- dustry. Plant Disease and Pest Control. Analyzing the Citrus Orchard by Means of Simple Tree Records. The Tendency of Tractors to Rise in Front; Causes and Remedies. An Orchard Brush Burner. A Farm Septic Tank. Saving the Gophered Citrus Tree. Home Canning. Head, Cane and Cordon Pruning of Vines. Olive Pickling in Mediterranean Countries. The Preparation and Refining of Olive Oil in Southern Europe. The Results of a Survey to Deter- mine the Cost of Producing Beef in California. Prevention of Insect Attack on Stored Grain. The Almond in California. Milk Houses for California Dairies. Potato Production in California. Phylloxera Resistant Vineyards. Oak Fungus in Orchard Trees. The Tangier Pea. Alkali Soils. The Basis of Grape Standardization. Propagation of Deciduous Fruits. Control of the California Ground Squirrel. Possibilities and Limitations of Coop- erative Marketing. Coccidiosis of Chickens. Buckeye Poisoning of the Honey Bee. The Sugar Beet in California. Drainage on the Farm. Liming the Soil. American Foulbrood and Its Control Cantaloupe Production in California. Fruit Tree and Orchard Judging. The Operation of the Bacteriological Laboratory for Dairy Plants. The Improvement of Quality in Figs. Principles Governing the Choice, Op- eration and Care of Small Irrigation Pumping Plants. The publications listed above may be had by addressing College of Agriculture, University of California, Berkeley, California. 14m-10,'28