University of California College of Agriculture Agricultural Experiment Station Berkeley, California Monthly Index Numbers of Farm Prices, California 1910-1934 H. J» Stover and D. R # Rush A Supplementary Report to Experiment Station Bulletin 569 September, 1934 Contribution from the Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics Mimeographed Report No, 37 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA ; BRANCH OF THE T ■r ♦ Monthly Index Numbers of Farm Prices, California 1910-1934 H. J, Stover^/ and D, R. Rush 1/ A report under the title "Annual Index Numbers of Farm Prices, California, 1910-1933" was published as California Experiment Station Bulletin 569 in February, 1934. In that publication the author presented a series of index numbers of California farm prices which included the prices of thirty-five farm products, representing between 85 and 90 per cent of the gross cash income of the farmers of the state. The report contained a discussion of the method of constructing tho index-numbor series, an interpretation of price movements as reflected in the indexes, and a tabular presentation of the price data used* In response to a need for an index of California farm prices which pictures the changing cu rrent farm-price situation more satisfactorily than does an annual index, a monthly index-number series has been prepared. This monthly index includes the prices of twenty-four products, representing between 60 and 65 per cent of the gross cash income of the farmers of the state. Eleven of the products included in tho annual index are not represented in the monthly index because, on account of the distinct seasonality in the sales of tho so products, monthly prices are unavailable for a large portion of tho year. Commodities Included in tho Monthly Farm- Price Index . — The commodit ies whose farm prices have been used in the construction of tho monthly farm-price index for California include beef cattle, veal calves, hogs, sheep, lambs, milk, milk fat, butter, eggs, chickens, wool, horses, barley, wheat, oats, corn, hay, alfalfa, cotton, potatoes, beans, oranges, lomons, and apples. We ight As s igned Different Commod it ies. — In tho construction of the monthly farm-pr'ico' index,' the weights 'assigned to tho various products are the same as those used in the annual index. These are given in table 7 on page 19 of Bulletin 569'i Base Peri od. — The base for the California monthly farm- price index is the average for the corresponding month during the five-year period, July, 1910 to June, 1915, inclusive. Method of Computation . — The monthly index, like the annual index, is of the aggregative type using fixed weights. The index number for a given month is obtained by multiplying the price of each commodity in that month by the weight assigned to it, adding 'the products, and dividing this sum by the average aggregate value of the same commodities in the corresponding month during the base period. Sources of Price Data . — The price data used in the computation of the indexes for the months prior to January, 1934, with the exception of cotton prices from 1910 to July, 1921 and of orange and lemon prices for 1910 and 1911, are given in tables 16 to 39, inclusive, in Bulletin 569. Cotton prices for J/ Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics, Assistant Agricultural Economist in the Experiment Station, and Assistant Agricultural Economist on the Giannini Foundation. 2/ Research Assistant on the Giannini Foundation, 1932-33. 2. the months prior to August, 1921 wore estimated from the December 1 farm, prices of cotton in California, the Doccmber 1 farm prices of cotton in Texas, and the monthly prices received by producers for cotton in Texas as reported by tho Division of Crop and Livestock Estimates of the United States Department of Agriculture, Thoso pricos aro given in table 1, Tho prices of oranges and lemons in 1910 and 1911 aro estimates based on unpublished records of the net prices received for these fruits by tho California Fruit Growors Exchange and on the relation between these prices and tho prices received by producers as reported by tho United States Department of Agriculturo in later years. These ostimates aro given in tables 2 and 3, All of the current prices used in the computation of the monthly index are the monthly prices received by producers at local farm markets in California as reported by the Division of Crop and Livestock Estimates of the United States Department of Agriculture, Prices for each month since January, 1934 are given in table 4. t; 1 V 3 TABLE 1 Monthly Farm Prices of Cotton, California, 1910-1921 (Cents per pound) Year Jan, r0D, Mar • Apr • May June Ju3 -y Aug . O . J_ oept * Oct . Nov, Dec, 1910 lo ,4 16 • 1 1 'Z 1 16 . 1 lo .1 13 ,1 lo .1 lo .1 lo ,3 Id .9 12.8 T 17 r> 13 ,3 10 .5 1911 13.7 13.2 13 .0 13.1 13.3 13.4 12.7 11.2 9.9 9.0 7.5 7,5 1912 J_ r< ts cd TS 3 (— 1 o CD 3 CO CO p p, o o SB SB CO 01 >d ►tJ CD CD *i -s 0 o co X 3^ w CD 4) ^ £ o 3 cT co ^ o CD CO p- p.^ o {> EE| o O I- 1 S3 O d- H) * f ^ SB O O > O CD o 3* co 3 CD SB CD d" 3 ^ CO M I — 1 ^ g CD CO P p, CD o o *t CD d o 2 3 *1 H H O 1 SB S» 3 d -J 1 co O CO CO 3" 3 CD 3 'c) t! h P> CD CD ^-^ _ ' d d C+ d- o o 3 3 O :g pa 5* c+ CD CO SB C+ o ««■*> CD O 3 CD c+ 3 CO C+ CO f d cd TJ d CD Cf 3 a" co 3 ty co CD 3- (— ' CD bd pa d l— 1 CD o o o ^-s CD p. 3 O d- i— 1 co sb ! d d CD CO d CD O -1 3 ff a CD w SB P^ O M 3'CR H" 0>i O CO CD 3 o CO CD 3 d- O CO CD 3 "3 d* CD co d bd g 3 h« d- d- CD d 81 ir 1 W 34 ^' SB ^^^0 S, M 3 Pj cd a. crq p. t*f* CT 1 O CD O CO O co (— ' *r3 i— 1 i— 1 - tntncnro OO O O w o o o tn O o o Tt O 3 3 P. co 0 -si 1 — 1 tn 05 Oi ro h- 1 c_ 1 — 1 tn O CO CO co 0 co O 1 — 1 1 — 1 OJ CD CO co 1 — 1 CD 6a oa tn oa SB • • • • • • • • • • • • • # * 3 CO O CD 00 O 0 O O O 0 O h- 1 0 O tn CO ro 00 oa 00 • tn tn O tn O 0 O O 0 O 0 O O OD 1— ' cn w 05 oc tn ro t— ' ro ro O ro h- 1 ro O ro CO CO CO CO CD co ro w tn 01 w -0 oa i£» tn CD CO K— 1 h- 1 O O M 0 00 O 0 0 0 O O w ro O O tn 1 — 1 ro t- 1 ro • 0 tn tn ~o 0 0 O O 0 tn O 0 O -3 1— 1 O) 03 05 CT) ro 1— 1 ro ro 0 h-» ro tn ro CO CO O tn tn ^ O tn W ^ ^ 1— 1 CO 04 tn • CO ro O M ^ ro O O O O O O OJ O O O CT) ro CTJ Oi • 0 O O O 0 O O O O O tn 0 O h- 1 o> w ro 1 — 1 h- 1 ro ro > 0 r\D O CS5 tn ro ~0 ro tn ^^ 1 — 1 t- 1 1 — 1 ->3 Js. Oa tn -J O CO O O O ^ CO O 0 O 0 O O ro ro O O tn 05 O CO -a • tn tn tn -J O 0 O O O O O O O -0 1 — 1 05 05 W o> ro 1 — • 1 — 1 ro ro (— 1 03 ro tn i— 1 CD 00 ro o> 1— 1 CD ro oa if* 1— 1 1— < 1 — 1 -0 oa oa tn O O O O 00 ro 0 O O O 0 0 O tn 00 O O tn ro ro tn O O tn i- 1 O 0 0 O O O tn O O Oi t— ' -0 01 cn> ro 1— 1 t-» ro ro O dti ro ro 0 ro -3 CO w ro -< co O W CT) ro ro M -0 oa Cxi tn 3 -O CO O O rf^ CO 0 O O 0 0 O O tn tn O O tn ro oa o> ro 3 CD tn O tn 0 0 O O O tn tn O tn "| tn t- 1 - M 1— 1 ro ro c_< 1 — 1 OJ ro 1 — 1 O w Co -0 CO ro ro O CO oa M CJ5 oa tn 3 O tn ro CO O O Oi CO 0 0 O O O 0 ro CD O O Oi Oa tn M • << *-i 3 O CD CO o H) SB O nr o >-+> i-a CD 3 d* 1 o 3 o p- 3 o o SB I— 1 H* O 3 CD Oa tn td o <5 td CD o t * t 4 I t < 4 It ♦ t 5. Monthly Index Numbers, 1910-1954 .— Monthly index numbers of farm prices in California, for all products and "by groups, are presented in tables 5 to 13, inclusive. The products included in the construction of each index series are listed in a footnote to the table containing the index* Comparison of Annual Averages of Monthly Index Numbers and Annual Index Numbers.-- The omission of several important products of California agriculture from the monthly index limits somewhat its usefulness in representing the true farm-price situation in California over long periods of time. The justi- fication for presenting it lies, primarily, in its use as an indicator of the course of farm prices during recent months. The annual index numbers of farm prices in California, presented in Bulletin 569, included the following products which are not included in the monthly indexes: rice, sugar beets, grapes, peaches, pears, apricots, cherries, raisins, prunes, walnuts, and almonds. The influence which the prices of these products had upon the annual index from 1910 to 1933 is indicated by the dif- ferences between the annual index and the annual averages of the monthly indexes, shown in table 14. The major differences between the two index series occurred between 1919 and 1922 when the prices of several products not included in the monthly index, particularly grapes and raisins, wero very high in relation to the prices of most other products. TABLE 5 Monthly Index Numbers of Farm Prices, California, 1910-1934 All Twenty- Four Products * (Corresponding months, July, 1910 to June, 1915 - 100) Year Jan. Feb, Mar . Apr • May June July Aug • " Sept • Oct. Nov. Doc • 1910 100 100 96 96 101 108 102 99 103 104 93 93 1911 97 96 91 95 102 100 97 90 100 101 97 99 1912 102 104 108 107 102 102 95 92 89 91 95 101 ' 1913 105 106 110 114 111 112 117 125 115 112 119 111 ' 1914 101 99 97 94 94 94 89 94 94 92 96 96 1915 95 95 93 90 92 93 84 84 85 90 104 100 1916 98 104 98 97 99 104 112 114 114 114 123 120 1917 120 131 135 143 146 146 137 135 137 137 146 155 1918 166 189 183 175 168 166 174 178 171 186 206 188 1919 183 177 176 171 175 177 166 161 158 161 170 182 1920 200 210 212 206 202 203 187 175 167 161 160 145 1921 135 124 120 116 103 108 114 114 112 118 124 118 1922 114 128 139 140 146 149 140 133 126 124 125 129 1923 133 135 129 130 130 136 128 116 119 124 130 124 1924 119 127 122 124 112 128 111 128 130 130 146 13 5 1925 152 155 157 151 161 179 156 141 157 158 174 140 1926 134 142 140 145 132 126 124 115 116 131 134 130 1927 130 134 130 127 120 13 6 130 134 147 151 151 145 1928 149 154 152 152 168 158 157 148 153 147 146 137 1929 146 138 132 130 127 138 123 134 140 141 135 155 1930 150 150 150 152 165 156 139 136 129 138 115 95 1931 93 91 91 83 89 82 86 82 78 84 79 79 1932 73 79 73 70 68 62 63 62 70 70 75 72 1933 69 58 57 56 63 72 70 68 ■67 67 65 1934 74 75 77 68 78 94 83 81 (footnote on next pago) 6, Table 5 continued: * Beef cattle, veal calves, hogs, sheep, lambs, milk (wholesale), milk fat, butter, eggs, chickens, wool (unwashed), horses, barley, wheat, oats, corn, hay (loose), alfalfa hay, cotton, potatoes, beans (dry), oranges, lemons, and apples • TABLE 6 Monthly Index Numbers of Farm Prices, California, 1910-1934 Twelve Livestock and Livestock Products * (Corresponding months, July, 1910 to June, 1915 « 100) Year Jan • Feb. Mar . Apr. May Juno July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec . 1910 103 103 100 98 102 109 109 102 102 105 100 99 1911 102 97 97 97 101 96 96 90 98 93 94 98 1912 97 104 106 104 98 10 2 100 101 96 98 99 100 1913 101 101 106 103 104 101 95 105 101 103 105 104 1914 103 101 95 99 100 104 99 102 102 101 101 99 1915 . 97 97 96 96 97 97 98 99 95 97 99 96 1916 94 101 98 106 107 107 104 102 104 104 109 107 1917 112 124 128 138 147 141 140 142 141 144 142 142 1918 152 164 164 162 167 164 166 160 166 166 169 171 1919 172 167 182 185 194 185 182 176 170 170 170 178 1920 178 181 182 184 184 174 178 174 168 163 162 144 1921 134 134 128 121 115 114 119 122 122 126 124 118 1922 106 122 127 126 130 128 128 122 127 134 130 131 1923 130 132 131 132 138 137 130 129 126 130 128 124 1924 126 135 135 128 125 122 122 123 118 121 122 123 1925 130 139 146 141 145 143 144 142 140 143 143 137 1926 130 135 139 137 140 133 137 134 129 130 124 126 1927 128 133 136 138 135 130 126 125 126 129 128 128 1928 133 135 140 140 144 140 140 140 141 139 135 134 1929 13 5 142 148 149 154 148 142 142 140 136 133 125 1930 125 130 133 132 129 123 115 110 110 107 102 95 1931 92 96 98 95 93 85 83 88 86 84 79 79 1932 74 74 74 75 69 64 66 66 65 66 65 66 1933 64 59 63 63 70 70 74 71 69 68 65 61 1934 61 70 76 74 74 73 74 74 * Beef cattle, veal calves, hogs, sheep, lambs, milk (wholesale), milk fat, butter, eggs, chiokens, wool (unwashed), and horses. TABLE 7 Monthly Index Numbers of Farm Prices^ California 9 1910-1934 Five Meat Animals' * (Corresponding months* July # 1910 to June, 1915 » 100) Year Jan* Feb* Mar , Apr , May J June July Aug « Sept* Oct. Nov* Dec* 1910 93 93 100 98 92 108 108 97 103 107 96 100 1911 106 * 98 97 99 103 93 89 87 99 88 88 86 1912 76 88 91 95 90 91 93 100 89 92 96 100 1913 100 101 102 100 102 104 101 106 99 104 112 106 1914 110 109 107 1 105 105 10& 110 ; 111 110 109 108 109 1915 108 104 102 102 100 104 107 106 97 98 102 100 1916 101 100 102 109 106 110 111 110 104 107 112 116 1917 124 128 138 147 148 150 157 153 155 160 168 160 1918 165 164 171 173 180 182 180 182 174 179 184 177 1919 186 185 184 184 191 185 190 190 170 169 168 172 1920 181 186 177 176 174 163 167 164 150 155 156 143 1921 146 138 128 123 112 115 114 117 106 107 109 102 1922 107 114 125 127 128 124 125 128 120 124 129 126 1923 134 128 123 117 116 118 118 121 115 120 123 116 1924 125 125 127 , 120 118 116 114 117 113 118 122 1 124 1925 131 136 141 141 138 145 147 147 140 145 149 146 1926 154 148 145 144 143 144 149 150 141 147 148 142 1927 144 142 141 142 140 139 137 144 138 147 149 152 1928 164 154 154 151 160 155 160 164 168 170 174 161 1929 167 159 164 162 177 161 162 166 157 160 159 150 1930 156 153 149 146 136 142 139 128 120 122 124 118 1931 123 115 109 104 96 92 95 95 86 85 84 81 1932 80 77 76 76 71 67 72 74 67 66 67 $3 1933 60 60 63 63 66 70 73 74 68 68 71 64 1934 69 73 76 72 71 73 77 75 * Beef cattle, veal calves, hogs, sheep, and lambs • TABLE 8 Monthly Index Numbers of Farm Prices, California, 1910-1934 Three Dairy Products* (Corresponding months, July, 1910 to June, 1915 = 100) Year Jan„ j May June July Aug « bept «, uct; e h OV » JJ6C • 1910 108 106 92 93 10 o 110 "1 1 o 112 107 100 106 10 /l 104 111 107 113 i n i 111 10 / i m 101 QA yo i r\ 9 10 ic i n/i 1041: 1U& o X bo o o y y i a i / oo 91 86 yo y 0 O 'Z vo O / n 9 O 9 yc Q 1 yi y o yo imp iy io O 1 93 86 O O oy oy Q 1 O / o/l y4t oy OO Q 7 o / Q C OO iy Id Q C OO 98 94 10 1 1U1 QQ yy yo Q Q OO y o Q 9 y K,TS CD "d 3 p 1 CD CD 3 -J o a' P P 3 03 P- CD I — 1 CD "d *TJ 3 CD CD Ti 3 3 CD X) 3 CD cr 1 cr 1 3 P £ a- 03 03 P" CT 1 3* tr* 03 p CD CD "J* 03 I — 1 I— 1 CD £3* M CD o o 3 O 03 CD 03 X Z&TS CD d- O 3 >d CD "J ^d o tr c CD 0 JO p. o w H" On O 03 PS" CD 3 X 01 n CD X. *i 'd P. 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