,, ‘i ., y r 03:3 g, a , ~ Nafifionafl Medical ©are @fififlfizafifion and Expemdfifiwre $Qflwey Insurance Coverage and Ambulatory Medical Care of Low-Income Children: «b United States, 1980 6W“ Series C, Analytical Report No. 1 II” l‘ Public Health Service National Center for Health Statistics Health Care Financing Administration Office of Research and Demonstrations National Medical Care Utilization and Expenditure Survey The National Medical Care Utilization and Expenditure Survey (NMCUES) is a unique source of detailed national estimates on the utilization of and expenditures for various types of medical care. NMCUES is designed to be directly responsive to the continuing need for statistical information on health care expenditures associated with health services utili- zation for the entire US. population. NMCUES will produce comparable estimates over time for evaluation of the impact of legislation and programs on health status, costs, utilization, and illness-related behavior in the medical care delivery system. In addition to national esti- mates for the civilian noninstitutionalized population, it will also provide separate estimates for the Medicaid-eligible pop- ulations in four States. - The first cycle of NMCUES, which covers calendar year 1980, was designed and conducted as a collaborative effort between the National Center for Health Statistics, Public Health Service, and the Office of Research and Demonstrations, Health Care Financing Administration. Data were obtained from three survey components. The first was a national house- hold survey and the second was a survey of Medicaid enrollees in four States (California, Michigan, Texas, and New York). Both of these components involved five interviews over a period of 15 months to obtain information on medical care utilization and expenditures and other health—related information. The third component was an administrative records survey that verified the eligibility status of respondents for the Medicare and Medicaid programs and supplemented the household data with claims data for the Medicare and Medicaid populations. Data collection was accomplished by Research Triangle Institute, Research Triangle Park, NC, and its subcontractors, the National Opinion Research Center of the‘ University of Chicago, Ill., and SysteMetrics, Inc., Berkeley, Calif, under Contract No. 233—79—2032. Co—Project Officers for the Survey were Robert R. Fuchs— berg of the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and Allen Dobson of the Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA). Robert A. Wright of NCHS and Larry Corder of HCFA also had major responsibilities. Daniel G. Horvitz of Research Triangle Institute was the Project Director primarily responsible for data collection, along with Associate Project Directors Esther F leishman of the National Opinion Research Center, Robert H. Thornton of Research Triangle Institute, and James S. Lubalin of SysteMetrics, Inc. Barbara Moser of Research Triangle Institute was the Project Director primarily responsible for data processing. Insurance Coverage :‘and Ambulatory Medical Care of Low-Income Children: United States, 1980 Series C, Analytical Report No.1 ll” U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Published by Public Health Service National Center for Health Statistics For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Oflice Washington, DC. 20402 Copyright Information All material appearing in this report is in the public domain and may be reproduced or copied without permission; citation as to source, however, is appreciated. Suggested Citation Rosenbach, M. L.: Insurance coverage and ambulatory medical care of low-income children: United States, 1980. National Medical Care Utilization and Expenditure Survey. Series C, Analytical Report No. 1. DHHS Pub. No. 85—20401. National Center for Health Statistics, Public Health Service. Washington. US. Government Printing Office, Sept. 1985. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Rosenbach, Margo L. Insurance coverage and ambulatory medical care for low-income children, United States, 1980. (Series C, Analytical report; no. 1) Written by Margo L. Rosenbach. 1. Ambulatory medical care for children—United States—Utilization—Statistics. 2. Ambulatory medical care for children—United States—Costs—Statistics. 3. Socially handicapped children—Medical care—United States—Statistics. 4. Insurance, Health—Statistics. 5. Health surveys—United States—Statistics. 6. United States—Statistics, Medical. |. National Center for Health Statistics (U.S.) ||. Title. III. Series: National medical care utilization and expenditure survey. Series C, Analytical report; no. 1. [DNLM: 1. Ambulatory Care—in infancy & childhood. 2. Health Services—utilization—United States. 3. Health Surveys—United States. 4. Insurance, Health—utiliza- tion—United States.y5. Medical lndigency. W 250 R813i] RJ102.R67 1985 362.1’2 85—20549 ISBN 0—8406—0327—4 x9726; 2092 l MEL Contents KJ/ol Ré7/ /?i5 fluaL- Executive Summary .................................................................................... lntroduction .......................................................................................... Concept of Access in Health Care ...................................................................... Background of Report ................................................................................ Discussion ........................................................................................... Overview of Insurance Coverage ........................................................................ Criteria for Medicaid Eligibility ......................................................................... Characteristics of Low-Income Children According to Insurance Coverage ..................................... Regular Source of Care ............................................................................... Health Service Use .................................................................................. Place of Visit ....................................................................................... Expenditures for Physicians’ Visits ...................................................................... References ........................................................................................... List of Detailed Tables .................................................................................. Appendixes , l. Technical Notes on Methods .......................................... . ............................... 19 ll. Definition of Terms ................................................................................. 27 “OOWVVODGCHO‘IQ’WO’A _a Figure 1. insurance coverage of children: United States, 1980 ..................................................... 5 Symbols - - - Data not available Category not applicable - Quantity zero 0.0 Quantity more than zero but less than 0.05 Test statistic is significant at 0.05 level H Test statistic is significant at 0.01 level iii Insurance Coverage and Ambulatory Medical Care of Low-Income Children: United States, 1980 by Margo L. Rosenbach, Ph.D. Heller Graduate School, Brandeis University Executive Summary In the household survey phase of the National Medical Care Utilization and Expenditure Survey of 1980, a sur- vey was conducted of 17,123 persons who constituted a representative sample of the civilian population in the United States not residing in institutions. Through repeated interviews the survey obtained information on the health conditions of these people, the health care services they received in 1980, the costs of these services, and the sources of payment for services. This report, one of a series of reports on the survey findings, provides a profile of low-income children: Their health insurance coverage, health service use, and expenditures for physician visits. Children under 18 years of age in families below 150 percent of the 1980 Federal poverty level are considered low income. However, children who were ineligible to participate in the survey for part of the year are excluded, such as those who were born, who died, or who were institutionalized in 1980. A physician visit is defined as a face—to—face contact with a physician or a nonphysician working under the supervision of a physician. In addition, visits to nurse practitioners and physician assistants who were reported as “independent providers” are included. Otherwise, visits to independent providers (primarily chiropractors and optometrists), mental health visits, visits by physicians to hospital inpatients, and telephone contacts are excluded. Of the 63.9 million children under 18 years of age in the United States in 1980, about one-fourth (16.8 mil- lion) lived in low-income families, according to estimates from the National Medical Care Utilization and Expendi- ture Survey. Nearly one-half (46 percent) of the 16.8 million low-income children were covered by Medicaid NOTE: Significant contributions to this report were made by Mary Grace Kovar, Dr.P.H., who reviewed the drafi; Robert J. Casady, Ph.D., who wrote Appendix 1, “Technical Notes on Methods"; Catherine H. Coleman, who as- sisted in producing the manuscript; and Klaudia M. Cox, who edited the manu- script. Portions of this report originally appeared in the author’s doctoral disser- tation (Rosenbach, 1985). The author wishes to acknowledge the guidance of Stanley Wallack, Ph.D., Chair of the dissertation committee, Heller Graduate School, Brandeis University. The research was supported, in part, by a disser- tation grant from the National Center for Health Services Research. Technical support was provided by staff of the Utilization and Expenditure Statistics Branch, National Center for Health Statistics. The author is currently Senior Health Analyst, Health Economics Research, Inc. for all or part of 1980: 31 percent were covered by Medicaid only for the full year, 3 percent were covered by Medicaid for part of 1980 and uninsured for the re- mainder of the year, and 12 percent were covered by both Medicaid and private insurance during the year. An additional 30 percent of the low-income children were privately insured for the full year, while 8 percent had private insurance coverage for part of the year and were uninsured otherwise. Sixteen percent of the children in low-income families, or 2.7 million children, were unin- sured for all of 1980. When added to the 3 percent with part year Medicaid coverage and the 8 percent with private coverage part of the year, over one-fourth (28 percent) were uninsured for at least part of 1980. This figure is almost twice as high as the percent of nonpoor children uninsured for at least part of the year (15 percent). Comparisons were made on the characteristics, health service use, and health expenditures among four categories of low-income children: those on Medicaid the full year, those on Medicaid only part of the year, the privately insured, and the uninsured: - In general, Medicaid coverage was more likely among— - Black children than among white children. — Children in families with more education than less. —— Children in single—parent families than two- parent families. — Children in poor families than near-poor families. — Children living outside the South. — Children in fair or poor health or with an activity limitation. -— Children hospitalized during the year. - Low-income children were not more (or less) likely to have a regular source of care than those who were not on Medicaid. The convenience of the regular source—in terms of travel time—also did not differ among Medicaid and non-Medicaid low-income chil- dren. - Low-income children had significantly fewer physi- cian visits than nonpoor children. Within the low- 1 income population, the uninsured children had a lower likelihood of and fewer visits than those who were privately insured or on Medicaid. About one-half of the low-income children had no visits to an office-based physician in 1980. Children on Medicaid part of the year had the highest number of visits, on average. The data suggest that children on Medicaid part of the year are “medically needy.” Children under 6 years of age who were covered by Medicaid were more likely to have a preventive exam that non—Medicaid children. Compared with nonpoor children, low—income chil— dren were significantly less likely to visit a physician’s office, and were more likely to visit organized settings (such. as health centers, hospital outpatient depart- ments, and emergency rooms). Within the low-income population, Medicaid children were more likely than non-Medicaid children to visit a health center or clinic. In addition, children on Medicaid part of the year were most likely to visit an emergency room. In 1980, $1.4 billion reportedly was spent for physi- cian visits by low—income children. As expected, children who were covered by Medicaid or who were privately insured had higher charges, on average, than those who were uninsured. The level of out-of-pocket expenditures is also as expected. The uninsured and the privately insured bear a significantly higher burden than the Medicaid children. The average out-of-pocket expense for nor-— Medicaid children was triple the average expense for Medicaid children. Introduction Over the past two decades, with the advent of Medi- caid, increases in physician supply, and the establishment of community health centers, the utilization of physicians’ services by low-income children has increased. Whereas in 1964, 33 percent of poor children and 15 percent of nonpoor children had no physician contact in the previous 2 years, by 1981 the figures had decreased to 11 percent of poor children and 10 percent of nonpoor children. The differential in average number of physician visits was re- versed. Average use by poor children increased from 2.3 contacts in 1964 to 4.8 contacts in 1981; nonpoor children went from 4.0 to 4.1 contacts. However, the low-income population is not synony- mous with the Medicaid population. In 1977, 48 percent of the low-income children (defined as those who lived in families with incomes below 125 percent of the Federal poverty guidelines) had Medicaid coverage at least part of the year, 39 percent had private insurance for all or part of the year, and 13 percent were uninsured for the entire year (Wilensky and Berk, 1982). An important research question and policy issue is whether access to health services by low—income children varies depending on the type of insurance coverage. Concept of Access in Health Care Two broad measures of access typically have been employed in research concerning health service use. The first type, process indicators, reflects characteristics of the delivery system (e.g., physicians per population, waiting time, and travel time). The second type, outcome indi— cators, portrays an individual’s entry into and journey through the health care system, as measured by various utilization rates (Aday and Andersen, 1975). In Andersen and Newman’s (1973) terms, the first definition repre- sents potential access, while the latter more directly measures realized access. The President’s Commission for the Study of Ethical Problems in Medicine and Biomedical and Behavioral Research ( 1983) raised the issue of “equitable” access. Its definition incorporates aspects of both realized and potential access. Concerning the “appropriate” level of care (realized access), the Commission rejected the notions that (1) an equal level of care should be available to all (given varying tastes and preferences) and (2) individuals should receive as much care as they need or can benefit from (given limited resources). Instead, equitable access is defined as “enough care to achieve sufficient welfare, opportunity, information, and evidence of interpersonal concern to facilitate a reasonably full and satisfying life. That level can be termed ‘an adequate level of health care.’ ” The Commission points out two major strengths of this concept: (I) it does not generate an open-ended obli- gation and (2) it allows individuals to exceed an adequate level of care (subject to an income constraint), which may be unequal, but not inequitable, by definition. The Commission concluded that a definition of equi- table access should consider the burden involved in ob— taining care (potential access), including the direct money costs associated with the care, and such indirect costs as waiting and travel time, and availability of transportation. While discrepancies among groups would not necessarily signify inequitable access, they might suggest that some individuals face greater burdens that others in obtaining care. Large disparities might be indicators of racial or ethnic discrimination. This report approaches the issue of access from both perspectives by presenting data on realized access (such as percent of children with a physician visit or a pre- ventive exam, and average number of physician visits), as well as data on potential access (such as the presence of a regular source of care and its convenience). Background of Report This report uses data from the 1980 National Medical Care Utilization and Expenditure Survey (NMCUES). NMCUES is ideally suited for exploring the question of whether health service use by low—income children varies according to the type of insurance coverage. Information on health insurance coverage, health problems, health care received, costs of care, and related areas was collected by means of NMCUES throughout calendar year 1980 from a sample of the US civilian noninstitutionalized population. This report is a profile of low-income chil- dren: Their health insurance coverage, health service use, and expenditures for physician visits. Children under 18 years of age in families with incomes below 150 percent of the 1980 Federal poverty level are considered low income. However, children who were ineligible to partici- pate in the survey for part of the year are excluded, such as those who were born, who died, or who were institu- tionalized in 1980. For the purpose of this report, a physician visit is defined as a face—to—face contact with a physician or a nonphysician working under the supervision of a physician. In addition, visits to nurse practitioners and physician assistants who were reported as “independent providers” are included. Otherwise, visits to independent providers (primarily chiropractors and optometrists) are excluded. Mental health visits are also excluded, as defined by the condition (mental disorder), the provider (psychiatrist, psychologist, or social worker), or the setting (psychiatric clinic). This definition is similar to that used by Taube, Kessler, and Feuerberg (1984) with the exception that ' visits to social workers (regardless of diagnosis) are ex- cluded from this analysis. Physician visits to hospital inpatients are not counted; telephone contacts also are not included. Because the survey covered only the non— institutionalized population, visits involving residents of institutions are excluded. This report focuses on physician visits in hospital outpatient departments or emergency rooms, freestanding health clinics, doctors’ offices, homes, laboratories, and other places. For a discussion of the sample design, imputation procedures, estimation methods, and statistical hypothesis testing, see Appendix I. For a further definition of terms, see Appendix II. Bonham (1983) and the National Center for Health Statistics (1983) provide additional background on the procedures, questionnaires, and public use tape for NMCUES. Refer to Rosenbach ( 1985) for a more detailed description of the methods used in this report. In this report, unless otherwise indicated in the text, differences between percents or totals are noted only if they are statistically significant at the .05 level. Only simple relationships of single factors are reported, even though it is recognized that underlying variables may account for the observed relationships. Discussion This report describes the population of low-income children in terms of their health insurance coverage, health service use, and expenditures for health care. The first section compares the insurance coverage of low-income children to that of children of all incomes. Next, the characteristics of low-income children covered by Medi— caid versus those not on Medicaid are examined. Finally, an overview is presented on the use of and expenditures for physicians’ services, according to type of coverage. The data presented in this report are weighted estimates for the civilian noninstitutionalized population in the United States. Overview of Insurance Coverage Of the 63.9 million children under age 18 in the United States in 1980, about one-fourth (16.8 million) lived in poor and near-poor families (defined as families with incomes below 150 percent of the Federal poverty level). Nearly one-half (46 percent) of the 16.8 million low-income children were covered by Medicaid for all or part of 1980: 31 percent were covered by Medicaid only for the full year, 3 percent were covered by Medicaid for part of 1980 and uninsured for the remainder of the year, and 12 percent were covered by both Medicaid and private insurance during the year. (See Table l and Figure 1.) An additional 30 percent of the low-income children were privately insured for the full year, while 8 percent had private insurance coverage for part of the year and were uninsured otherwise. Sixteen percent of the children in low-income families, or 2.7 million children, were un- insured for all of 1980. When added to the 3 percent with part—year Medicaid coverage and the 8 percent with private coverage part of the year, over one—fourth (28 percent) were uninsured for at least part of 1980. This figure is almost twice as high as the percent of nonpoor children uninsured for at least part of the year (15 percent). As expected, the predominant form of insurance coverage among nonpoor children is private insurance: 80 percent were covered the full year, 7 percent part of the year, and 3 percent in combination with Medicaid coverage. For the remainder of this report, insurance coverage is divided into four categories: (1) Medicaid coverage the full year, '(2) Medicaid coverage part of the year, Private insurance coverage \\V Medicaid coverage 100 90 16.0 80 70 E 60 2 E E U “5 50 E Q) U 5 a 40 3O 20 \\\ \\\\7\ o \ \6\\\ All children 150 percent Below of poverty 150 percent level or of poverty greater level Figure 1 Insurance coverage of children: United States, 1980 (3) private insurance coverage all or part of the year (and no Medicaid coverage), and (4) no insurance coverage the entire year. These figures are comparable to those presented in Table l with two modifications: (1) children receiving both Medicaid and private insurance in 1980 have been classified in the full—year and part—year Medi- caid categories regardless of their private insurance coverage (the total with Medicaid is unchanged, however); and (2) the separate full—year and part—year private in- surance categories have been collapsed into one category. These regroupings preserve the distinctions between the insured and uninsured children as well as between full— year and part-year Medicaid recipients, while maintaining cell sizes sufficient for analysis. Criteria for Medicaid Eligibility Medicaid eligibility is based on a variety of financial and categorical criteria. All States must provide Medicaid coverage to children in families receiving Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC). However, there is considerable variation among States in the financial cri- teria because the States determine the payment standards upon which AFDC eligibility is based. The level of a State’s payment standard reflects its fiscal capabilities- and attitudes toward assisting the poor (Rymer et al., 1979). AFDC is targeted to children in single—parent families, although 25 States and the District of Columbia provided AFDC (as well as Medicaid) to children in two-parent families with an unemployed parent in 1980. (See Table 2.) In addition, 29 States and the District of Columbia provided Medicaid coverage to children in two—parent families that did not meet the categorical re— quirements of AFDC, but did meet the financial criteria (Muse and Sawyer, 1982). Another optional group, covered by 29 States and the District of Columbia, is the medically needy. This group consists of those who did not qualify financially for public assistance (AFDC) but whose medical expenses enabled them to “spend down” their income to qualify for Medicaid. Blind and disabled children receiving Sup- plemental Security Income were automatically covered by Medicaid in 33 States and the District of Columbia; the remaining 17 States placed some restrictions on Medicaid coverage of Supplemental Security Income re- _ cipients (Muse and Sawyer, 1982). Gaps exist in Medicaid coverage of children within States that do not cover one or more of the optional groups discussed above. In addition, States with very low AFDC payment standards exclude low-income children in single-parent families whose income exceeds the fi— nancial limit, but is still below the poverty level. Characteristics of Low-Income Children According to Insurance Coverage As shown in Table 3, Medicaid and non-Medicaid children did not differ significantly in age. The average age was roughly 8 years in both groups. Also, there were no statistical differences between the two groups with respect to the proportion of females. The type of coverage for black and white children was significantly different, with black children accounting for 45 percent of the low-income children covered by Medicaid the full year, 20 percent of the uninsured, and 21 percent of the privately insured. (Overall, black chil- dren constituted 30 percent of the low—income children.) The lower level of Medicaid coverage and higher level of no insurance among white children may result, in part, from the fact that a higher proportion of white children were living in two—parent families. As discussed pre- viously, AFDC (and hence, Medicaid) is targeted to children in single-parent families, although 30 States extend Medicaid to children in two—parent families. (The small number of children of other races and the unreli- ability of the estimates preclude any separate discussion of this subpopulation.) Half of the children on Medicaid the full year or un- insured the full year lived in families where no adult had graduated from high school. A significantly lower pro— portion (about one-fourth) of the children covered by private insurance lived in families with no high school graduate. Educational status may be associated with a parent’s employment status or place of employment and, hence, insurance coverage. As expected from the Medicaid eligibility criteria, children covered by Medicaid either full year or part year were significantly more likely to be living in single-parent families (72 percent) than those not on Medicaid (25 per- cent). Both Medicaid and non—Medicaid children lived in families having an average of three children in the household. Low-income children covered by Medicaid lived in families with an average income of $7,138. This was significantly lower than the average family income of non—Medicaid children ($10,024). Children on Medicaid the full year had the lowest family income on average ($6,907), while the privately insured had the highest ($ 10,3 18). Restrictive financial and categorical criteria clearly prevented some of the uninsured population from qualify— ing for Medicaid. About half of the uninsured children lived in families below the poverty level. The remaining half of the uninsured were near poor (100 to 150 percent of poverty). As would be expected, three-fourths of the Medicaid children were below the poverty level. Low-income children living in the South represented 35 percent of the total, but only 28 percent of those covered by Medicaid for all or part of the year. Children in the South accounted for a disproportionate share of the non- Medicaid population (both the uninsured and privately insured). Southern States tend to have lower income eli— gibility criteria for AFDC and, as a result, provide public assistance to a smaller proportion of the children in poverty (Kovar and Meny, 1981). Of the low-income children on Medicaid for all or part of the year, 12 percent were in fair or poor health or had an activity limitation, compared with 8 percent of the non-Medicaid children. A significantly higher proportion of the Medicaid children were hospitalized in 1980. Both groups had roughly the same number of bed days on average. It would appear that low-income children who were covered by Medicaid part of the year may be in poorer health than other children, as indicated by the percent hospitalized in 1980. It should be noted, however, that a causal relationship among health status, health service use, and Medicaid coverage is likely. Children in poor health who have high medical care costs may be covered by Medicaid in the 30 States that cover the medically indigent if_they meet the financial and categorical eligi— bility criteria. Regular Source of Care Low—income children are more likely than higher income children to report a particular place as a regular source of care, whereas higher income children tend to have a physician’s office as a regular source. This dis- parity has been attributed, in part, to the effects of Medi— caid. However, data have not been published on the regular source of care of low-income children, according to their insurance coverage. This section presents such data, as well as information on the convenience of the regular source, measured by the average travel and waiting times. These data reflect indicators of potential access, as dis- cussed in the introduction. Overall, 85 percent of the low-income children were reported to have a regular source of care, ranging from 82 percent for those who were uninsured to 87 percent for the privately insured. (See Table 4.) Children covered by Medicaid part of the year were most likely to report a physician’s office as a regular source (59 percent), prob- ably due to their lower health status and thus greater need for specialized care. Uninsured children were least likely to report a physician’s office as a regular source (49 percent). Overall, non—Medicaid children were more likely to report a particular place as a regular source of care. These differences, however, were not statistically significant. Of those with a regular source of care, the average travel time was 18 minutes, while the average waiting time in the physician’s office, health center, or other place was 43 mintues. (See Table 5). Average travel time was lower (although not significantly lower) for the privately insured children (16.3 minutes), compared to the unin- sured (20.8 minutes), the part-year Medicaid children (19.2 minutes), and the full-year Medicaid children (18.6 minutes). Compared with privately insured chil- dren, only the children on Medicaid the full year had a significantly longer waiting time (on average). Thus it would appear from these data that there are few signifi- cant differences among Medicaid and non-Medicaid low- income children in the type of regular source and its convenience. Health Service Use This section provides baseline data on health service utilization by low-income children, according to type of insurance coverage. The data are presented unadjusted, and then adjusted for selected factors (self—reported health status, whether the child had a regular source of care, and age). Low-income children had significantly fewer physi- cian visits than nonpoor children, 2.7 versus 3.3 visits per child. However, the number of visits per child with at least one visit was not statistically different, 3.8 visits for low-income children and 4.2 visits for non-poor children. (See Table 6.) Within the low-income population, non-Medicaid children were significantly less likely than Medicaid children to have a physician visit—33 percent of the non— Medicaid children had no physician visits in 1980. (See Table 6.) Uninsured children had an average of 1.8 phy- sician visits, significantly less than the averages for the other three groups. In fact, the average number of visits for children covered by Medicaid part of the year was twice that for uninsured children. Another comparative measure is the average number of visits per child with at least one visit. Because this measure excludes children with no visits, it reflects the intensity of physician contact among users. The average number of visits per child with at least one visit ranged from 2.8 visits (uninsured) to 4.4 visits (part—year Medi- caid). Again, the uninsured had significantly fewer visits than each of the other three groups. Although Table 6 clearly indicates that uninsured children were less likely than insured children to see a physician, it is inappropriate to make such a comparison without adjusting for perceived health status. Using the direct method of adjustment, disparities remained between insured and uninsured children in the percent with no physician visits in 1980: uninsured, 36.3 percent; pri- vately insured, 30.6 percent; Medicaid full year, 26.9 percent; and Medicaid part year, 17.1 percent (data not shown). Another comparison was made by adjusting for whether the child had a regular source of care. (See Table 7.) Having a regular source did not increase the likelihood of a physician visit among uninsured children; nor was it reduced. Slightly more than one—third of the uninsured children had no physician visits in 1980, re- gardless of whether they had a regular source of care. In contrast, for the children on Medicaid all year and the privately insured, the likelihood of a physician visit was significantly higher among children with a regular source. (The estimates for the part-year Medicaid children are unreliable due to the small sample size.) The average number of visits for children with a regular source generally was not significantly different from the average for the children with no regular source with one exception. Privately insured children with a regular source averaged twice as many visits as those with no regular source (3.0 visits versus 1.6). About one-half of the low-income children had no visits to an office-based physician in 1980. (See Table 8.) The average number of visits to a private phy— sician was 1.3 visits. Of those with at least one visit, the average number per child was 2.7 visits. Children on Medicaid part of the year weremost likely to visit private physicians although the differences among the four groups were not statistically significant. Children on Medicaid part of the year had an average of 1.9 visits to a private physician, but among those making at least one visit, the average was 2.7 visits. The average number of visits for this group was significantly higher than the average for the other three groups. These figures, as well as the data presented above on aggregate physician use, are consistent with the notion that the children on Medicaid part of the year are medically needy. Overall, 18 percent of the low—income children had one or more preventive visits in 1980. Because of varying protocols for preventive care, depending on the age of the child, the data in Table 9 are shown by age. Children under 6 years of age were twice as likely (26 percent) as elementary-school—age children (11 percent) and adoles- cents (13 percent) to have a preventive exam. In all age groups, children covered by Medicaid were more likely to receive preventive care than children who were not covered by Medicaid, although the difference is signifi- cant only among the youngest children. This pattern is also observed when the figures are age adjusted. , Within the youngest age group, children on Medicaid the entire year were more likely to have a preventive examination than privately insured children. However, no statistically significant differences were found between the full—year Medicaid children and the uninsured or part-year medicaid children. Place of Visit Differences in the place of visit according to type of insurance coverage may be an indicator of the nature of supply-side incentives as well as a reflection of individual preferences. For example, low levels of physician reim- bursement under Medicaid may reduce the availability of office-based care for Medicaid recipients and increase the use of hospital-based ambulatory care from outpatient departments (OPD’s) and emergency rooms (ER’s). Similarly, limited coverage of physicians’ services among those who are privately insured may also lead to the use of hospital—based care. Additionally, utilization patterns may reflect an individual’s or a group’s preferences for office—based or hospital-based ambulatory care (subject to supply constraints). Table 10 shows the percent of children with at least one physician visit, who had visits to specified places. Of the low—income children with a physician visit in 1980, 68 percent visited a physician’s office, 29 percent went to a health center, 35 percent to an ER, and 25 percent to a hospital OPD. Compared with nonpoor children, low— income children were significantly less likely to visit a physician’s office and more likely to use each of the three other facilities. (There were no significant differences in the percent of visits to “other” places, including labora- tory and home visits, and visits to unspecified places.) Within the low—income population, utilization pat- terns varied according to a child’s insurance coverage. About 45 percent of the children on Medicaid part of the year (who used any ambulatory care), had one or more visits to an ER. In addition, children on Medicaid full year or part year (and who had at least one visit) were more likely than non—Medicaid children to visit a health center or clinic, perhaps because of the effort among community health centers to serve Medicaid recipients. There were no statistical differences in the use of OPD’s, office—based physicians, and other places among the four groups. Table 10 shows the percent distribution of visits, according to place of visit. Among nonpoor children, visits to a physician’s office accounted for over two—thirds of the visits, compared with one-half for the low-income children. A higher proportion of the visits among low- income children were to organized settings (health centers or clinics, hospital ER’s, and OPD’s). In particular, the percent of visits by low-income children to hospital OPD’s was about three times that by nonpoor children. Within the low-income population, uninsured children had the highest percent of visits to a physician’s office, while privately insured children had the lowest (although this difference was not significant). Unexpectedly, the privately insured children had the highest percent of visits to hospital OPD’s (although this difference, also, was not significant at the 0.05 level). Compared with non- Medicaid children, the Medicaid children (full and part year combined) did have a significantly higher percent of visits to health centers as well as to hospital ER’s. Two points should be emphasized about Table 10. Low—income children who have any ambulatory care make greater use of hospital—based facilities than children of higher incomes. However, within the low-income pop- ulation, privately insured children had a higher proportion of visits to such facilities. The higher use of hospital OPD’s and ER’s has both cost and quality implications. The average charge for a hospital ER visit in 1980 was $77.21, compared with $44.86 foran OPD visit, $22.09 for an office visit, and $21.06 for a clinic visit. (These data are from the 1980 NMCUES based on visits by low—income children that had a charge.) Visits to a physician’s office or to a health center are lower in cost than those to an OPD or ER. Thus, from a cost perspective, OPD’s and ER’s should be providers of last resort. From a quality perspective, ER’s in‘ particular are generally considered inappropriate providers of primary care or nonurgent care because they lack continuity and comprehensiveness. As Davidson (1978) notes: “Non- urgent care provided in ER’s necessarily lacks continuity and followup, for one thing, since ER’s must be estab- lished to respond to emergency episodes. Furthermore, ER personnel are trained and selected for their ability to treat emergency and urgent conditions; in many instances they have neither the experience nor the interest needed to provide effective primary care.” Expenditures for Physicians’ Visits In 1980, $1.4 billion reportedly was spent for phy- sician visits by low—income children. Expenditures for physicians’ services are a function of two components: The number of visits and the cost per visit. An additional factor affects the estimates that are obtained from a household survey such as the NMCUES; that is, the in— dividual’s knowledge of the cost of care. The expenditure data are based on reported charges, not the actual cost of care. Thus, the data underestimate the amounts for sub— sidized care (e. g., community health centers and public hospitals). The reported charges were disproportionately high (relative to the distribution of children) for children covered by Medicaid part year and those who were privately in— sured. In contrast, they were disproportionately low for uninsured children. (See Table 11.) The differentials in charges are also illustrated by the average charge per child and the average charge per visit, as shown in Table 12. (These estimates are based on children or visits with charges, and exclude those with no charges.) Children on Medicaid full year or part year and those who were pri- vately insured had significantly higher average charges than the uninsured children. The considerably lower charges among uninsured children deserve further comment. While the previous analysis indicated that the uninsured had fewer visits than other children, it was not on the order of magnitude that the lower average charges per child would suggest. Clearly, subsidized care accounts for a large amount of this dif- ference. The average charge per visit for uninsured chil- dren was less than that for the three other groups, for office visits as well as visits to ER’s and OPD’s (data not shown). Finally, the level of out—of-pocket expenditures, ac— cording to insurance coverage, is as one would expect. The uninsured and the privately insured bear a signifi- cantly higher burden than the Medicaid children. (See Table 13.) The average expense for non—Medicaid chil- dren ($42.27) was more than triple the average expense for Medicaid children ($13.47). However, the children on Medicaid part of the year had significantly higher out- of-pocket expenses than those covered by Medicaid the full year ($26.51 versus $9.98). In part, this may be due to the “spend-down” requirements to qualify for a State’s medically needy program under Medicaid. It should be noted that these data on out-of-pocket expenditures relate only to physician visits. Expenditures for inpatient hospital care, dental care, and prescribed medicines, which can be quite substantial, are not shown in Table 13. When these expenditures are included, 13 percent of the low-income children had $100 or more in out-of—pocket expenses for all types of medical care (in- cluding 3 percent of the full-year Medicaid children; 17 percent of the part-year Medicaid children; 21 percent of the privately insured; and 17 percent of the uninsured) (data not shown). References Aday. L. A., and Andersen, R.: Development of Indices of Access to Medical Care. Ann Arbor. Health Administration Press, 1975. Andersen, R, and Newman, J. F.: Societal and individual determinants of medical care utilization in the U.S. Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly 51: 95—124, 1973. Bonham. G. 8.: Procedures and questionnaires of the National Medical Care Utilization and Expenditure Survey. National Medical Care Utilization and Expenditure Survey. Series A, Methodological Report No. 1. DHHS Pub. No. 83—20001. National Center for Health Sta- tistics, Public Health Service. Washington. U.S. Government Printing Office, Mar. 1983. Davidson, S. M.: Understanding the growth of emergency department utilization. Med. Care 16(2):122—132, Feb. 1978. Kovar, M. G., and Meny, D. 1.: Better Health for Our Children: A National Strategy. Vol. III, A Statistical Profile. DHHS Pub. No. (PHS) 79—55071. Public Health Service. Washington. U.S. Govern- ment Printing Office, 1981. Muse, D. N., and Sawyer, D.: Health care financing program statistics. The Medicare and Medicaid Data Book, 1981. DHHS Pub. No. (HCF A) 03 128. Health Care Financing Administration. Washington. U.S. Government Printing Office, 1982. National Center for Health Statistics: Public Use Data Tape Docu- mentation. National Medical Care Utilization and Expenditure Sur- vey. Public Health Service, Hyattsville, Md., 1983. 10 President’s Commission for the Study of Ethical Problems in Medicine and Biomedical and Behavioral Research: Securing Access to Health Care. Volume 1. Washington. U.S. Government Printing Office, 1983. Rosenbach, M. L.: The Use of Physicians’ Services by Low-Income Children: The Role of Medicaid and Other Factors. Unpublished doctoral dissertation. Brandeis University. 1985. Rymer, M. P., et al.: Medicaid Eligibility: Problems and Solutions. Boulder, Colo. Westview Press, 1979. SAS Institute, Inc.: SAS User's Guide, Basics, 1982 Edition. Cary, NC. 1982. Shah, B. V.: SESUDAAN, Standard Errors Program for Computing of Standard Rates from Sample Survey Data. Research Triangle Park, NC. Research Triangle Institute, Apr. 1981. Taube, C. A., Kessler, L., and Feuerberg, M.: Utilization and ex- penditures for ambulatory mental health care during 1980. National Medical Care Utilization and Expenditure Survey, Data Report No. 5. DHHS Pub. No. (PHS) 84—20000. National Center for Health Sta- tistics, Public Health Service. Washington. U.S. Government Printing Office, June 1984. U.S. Bureau of the Census: Characteristics of the population below the poverty level, 1981. Current Population Reports. Series P—60, No. 138. Washington. U.S. Government Printing Office, 1983. Wilensky, G. R., and Berk, M. L.: Health care, the poor, and the role of Medicaid. Health Affairs 1293—100, 1982. List of Detailed Tables - 10. 11. 12. 13. Number and percent distribution of children by insurance coverage, according to poverty status: United States, 1980 ........................................................................................... Eligibility criteria for State Medicaid programs: United States, 1980 ....................................... Characteristics of lbw-income children, by insurance coverage: United States, 1980 .......................... Percent distribution of low-income children by regular source of medical care, according to insurance coverage: United States, 1980 ............................................................................... Percent distribution of low-income children by regular source of medical care, according to insurance coverage; and convenience of regular source, by insurance coverage: United States, 1980 ............................. Percent distribution of low-income children by number of physician visits, according to insurance coverage; with average number of visits: United States, 1980 ......................................................... Percent of low-income children with 1 or more physician visits and average number of visits per child, by insurance coverage: United States, 1980 ...................................................................... Percent distribution of low-income children by number of private physician visits, according to insurance coverage; with average number of visits: United States, 1980 ..................................................... Number of low-income children and percent with preventive visits, by age of child and insurance coverage: United States, 1980 ............................................................................... ’. ..... Number, percent of children with at least 1 visit, and percent distribution of physician visits, by place of visit and insurance coverage: United States, 1980 ................................................. ' ............. Number and percent distribution of low-income children and amount and percent distribution of expenditures for physicians' services by insurance coverage: United States, 1980 .......................................... Number of low-income children, number of physician visits, and average charge per child and per physician visit, by insurance coverage: United States, 1980 ........................................................... Percent distribution of low-income children by out-of-pocket expenditures for physician visits, according to insur- ance coverage; with average out-of-pocket expenditures: United States, 1980 ............................... 12 13 14 14 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 17 11 Table 1 Number and percent distribution of children by insurance coverage, according to poverty status: United States, 1980 Insurance coverage All children Low-income children Nonpoor children Number in Percent Number in Percent Number in Percent thousands distribution thousands distribution thousands distribution Total .......................................... 63,871 100.0 16,846 100.0 47,026 1000 Medicaid ............................................ 10,855 17.0 7,726 45.9 3,129 6.7 Full year ........................................... 6,494 10.2 5,264 31.2 1,230 2.6 Part year .......................................... 973 1.5 515 3.1 458 1.0 With private insurance ............ - ................... 3,388 5.3 1.947 11.6 1,441 3.1 Private insurance ...................................... 47,276 74.0 6,425 38.1 40,851 , 86.9 Full year ........................................... 42,532 66.6 5,011 29.7 37,521 79.8 Part year .......................................... 4,744 7.4 1,414 8.4 3,330 7.1 No insurance ................................ ' ......... 5,740 9.0 2,695 16.0 3,045 6.5 NOTE: Low-income children live in families with incomes below 150 percent of the Federal poverty level. Nonpoor children live in families with incomes at or above 150 percent of the Federal poverty level, 12 Table 2 Eligibility criteria for State Medicaid programs: United States, 1980 Families with Poor children All State unemployed in 2-parent Medically Supplemental parent covered families not needy Security Income by AFDC on AFDC recipients Total ............................................. 26 3O 30 34 Alabama ................................................ - X - X Alaska ............................... V ................... - - - X Arizona‘ ................................................ - - - - Arkansas ................................................ - X X X California ................................................ X X X X Colorado ................................................ X - - X Connecticut .............................................. X X X - Delaware ............................ - .................... X - - X District of Columbia ....................................... X X X X Florida .................................................. — - - X Georgia ................................................. - X - X Hawaii .................................................. X X X - Idaho ................................................... - X - X Illinois .................................................. X - - lndiana ................................................. - - - - Iowa .................................................... X - - X Kansas .................................................. X - X X Kentucky ................................................ - X X X Louisiana ................................................ - X X X Maine .................................................. - X X X Maryland ................................................ X X X X Massachusetts ........................................... X X X X Michigan ................................................ X X X X Minnesota ............................................... X X X - Mississippi .............................................. - - - - Missouri ................................................ X - - - Montana ................................................ X X X X Nebraska ................................................ X - X - Nevada ................................................. - X - X New Hampshire .......................................... - X X - New Jersey .............................................. X X - X New Mexico ............................................. - - - X New York ............................................... X - X - North Carolina ............................................ - - X - North Dakota ............................................. - X X - Ohio .................................................... - - - Oklahoma ............................................... - X X - Oregon ................................................. - X - X Pennsylvania .................... I ......................... X X X X Rhode Island ............................................. X X X X South Carolina ........................................... - X - X South Dakota ............................................ — - X Tennessee ............................................... X X X Texas ................................................... - - - X Utah .................................................... X X X - Vermont ................................................ X X X X Virginia ................................................. - - X - Washington ............................................. X X X X West Virginia ............................................ X - X X Wisconsin ............................................... X X X X Wyoming ................................................ - - - X 1As of December 1980 Arizona did not have a Medicaid programs NOTES: See text for description of eligibility criteria. X = coverage offered by the State; - = coverage not offered by the State. SOURCE: Muse, D N., and Sawyer, 0.: Health care financing program statistics. The Medicare and Medicaid Data Book, 198]. DHHS Pub. No. (HCFAi 03128. Health Care Financing Administration Washington. U.S. Government Printing Office, 1982, 13 Table 3 Characteristics of low-income children, by insurance coverage: United States, 1980 Medicaid No Medicaid . . Low-income Characteristic children Private No Total Full year Part year Total . . insurance insurance Number of children in thousands .................. 16,846 7,726 6,248 1,478 9,120 6,425 2,695 Percent distribution ............................. 100.0 45.9 37.1 8.8 54.1 38,1 16.0 Average age in years .................................. 8.0 7.7 7.5 8,7 8,2 8.3 7.9 Percent female ....................................... 49.7 48.6 47.9 51,3 50.7 49.3 54.1 Percent black ........................................ 30.3 41.9 45.2 27.7 20.5 20.8 19.9 Percent no high school graduate in family ................. 41.0 48.4 50,8 38.4 34.7 27.1 52.8 Percent single-parent families .......................... 46.5 72.2 72.8 70.0 24.8 22.0 31.4 Average number of children in family ..................... 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.0 Average income in dollars .............................. 8,700 7,138 6,907 8.117 10,024 10,318 9,323 Percent below poverty level ............................ 58.2 76.2 79.0 64.7 42.9 41.2 47.0 Percent living in South ................................ 34.9 27.6 25.7 .- 35.4 41.2 40.8 42.2 Percent in fair/poor health or with activity limitation ........ 9.5 11.7 11.1 14.2 7.6 6.7 9.7 Percent hospitalized in 1980 ........................... 7.8 10.4 9.4 13.4 5.9 7.2 2.6 Average number of bed days ............................ 3.9 4.0 3.9 4.7 3.7 3.8 3.4 Table 4 Percent distribution of low-income children by regular source of medical care, according to insurance coverage: United States, 1980 Regular source T t | No regular '"surance C°Verage ° 3 Physician's Particular source office place Percent distribution Total ............................................................ 100.0 52.3 32.6 15.1 Medicaid .............................................................. 100.0 53.6 30.6 15.8 Full year ............................................................. 100.0 52.5 32.2 15.3 Part year .......... , ................................................... 100.0 58.5 23.6 17.9 No Medicaid ........................................................... 100.0 51.1 34,3 14_6 Private insurance ...................................................... 100.0 52.2 34.8 13.0 No insurance ......................................................... 100.0 48.6 33.2 18,2 Table 5 Percent distribution of low-income children by regular source of medical care, according to insurance coverage; and convenience of regular source, by insurance coverage: United States, 19801 Low-income Insurance coverage Regular source Convenience of regular source children Physician's Particular Travel Waiting Total . . . office place time time Number in Average time thousands Percent distribution in minutes Total ................................... 14,295 100.0 61.6 38.4 18.1 43.0 Medicaid ...................................... 6,504 100.0 63.7 36.3 18.7 46.8 Full year .................................... 5,291 100.0 61.9 38.1 18.6 48.9 Part year .................................... 1,213 100.0 71.3 28.7 19.2 37.8 No Medicaid ................................... 7,792 100.0 59.8 40.2 17.5 39.8 Private insurance ............................. 5,588 100.0 60.0 40.0 16.3 35.4 No insurance ................................ 2,204 100.0 59.4 40.6 20.8 51.1 1includes only children with a regular source of medical care. 14 Table 6 Percent distribution of low-income children by number of physician visits, according to insurance coverage; with average number of visits: United States. 1980 Number of physician visits Visits Insurance coverage Per Per child Total None 1 or 2 3 to 6 7 or more child with visit Percent distribution Average number All children ............................ 100.0 23.6 37.5 26.7 12.3 3.1 4.1 Nonpoor children ............................. 100.0 21.6 38.1 27.5 12.7 3.3 4.2 Low-income children .......................... 100.0 29.0 35.6 24.3 11.1 2.7 3.8 Medicaid .................................... 100.0 24.8 35.6 25.9 13.7 2.9 3.9 Full year ................................... 100.0 26.6 35.8 25.6 12.0 2.8 3.8 Part year ................................... 100.0 17.0 35.2 27.0 20.8 3.6 4.4 No Medicaid ................................. 100.0 32.6 35.5 23.0 8.9 2.5 3.8 Private insurance ............................ 100.0 31.0 33.8 24.7 10.4 2.8 4.1 No insurance ............................... 100.0 36.3 39.5 18.9 15.3 1.8 2.8 1Relative standard error equal to or greater than 0.30. Table 7 Percent of low-income children with 1 or more physician visits and average number of visits per child, by insurance coverage: United States, 1980 Children with 1 or more visits Visuts per child Insurance coverage Regular No regular Regular No regular source source source source Percent of children Average number Total ............................................................. 72.7 61.4 2.9 1.8 Medicaid ............................................................... 76.7 67.3 3.1 2.1 Full year .............................................................. 75.7 . 60.7 2.9 1.9 Part year .............................................................. 81.1 91.3 3.8 ‘2.6 No Medicaid ............................................................ 69.3 56.0 2.7 1.5 Private insurance ....................................................... 71.5 51.9 3.0 1.6 No insurance .......................................................... 63.8 63.0 1.9 1.5 1Relative standard error equal to or greater than 0.30. Table 8 Percent distribution of low-income children by number of private physician visits, according to insurance coverage; with average number of visits: United States, 1980 fl Number of physician visits Visits Insurance coverage . Per Per child Total None 1 or 2 3 to 6 7 or more child with visit Percent distribution Average number Total .................................. 100.0 52.2 30.9 13.2 3.8 1.3 2.7 Medicaid .................................... 100.0 49.2 31.3 14.4 5.2 1.4 2.8 Full year ................................... 100.0 50.2 32.1 13.4 4.4 1.3 2.7 Part year ................................... 100.0 45.1 27.7 18.7 8.6 1.9 2.7 No Medicaid ...., ............................ 100.0 54.7 30.6 12.2 2.5 1.2 2.6 Private insurance ............................ 100.0 55.5 29.9 11.5 3.2 1.2 2.7 No insurance ............................... 100.0 52.9 32.9 13.8 11.0 1.1 2.3 1Relative standard error equal to or greater than 0.30. 15 Table 9 Number of low-income children and percent with preventive visits, by age of child and insurance coverage: ' United States, 1980 Low-income All Under 6 6—11 12—1 7 Age Insurance coverage . . 1 children ages years years years adjusted Number in thousands Percent Total ........................................ 16,846 17.5 26.4 11.4 13.1 17.5 Medicaid coverage .................................. 7,725 21.7 30.8 14.8 16,5 21.2 Full year ......................................... 6,248 . 21.5 31.9 14.0 15.1 21.0 Part year ........................ ' ................. 1,478 22.4 26.1 19.3 20.5 22.2 No Medicaid ....................................... 9,120 13.9 22.0 8.8 10.5 14.2 Private insurance .................................. 6,425 14.3 21.9 9.6 11.0 14.6 No insurance ..................................... 2,595 12.9 22.2 7.0 8.9 13.2 1Age adjusted by the direct method. Table 10 Number, percent of children with at least 1 visit, and percent distribution of physician visits, by place of visit and insurance coverage: United States, 1980 Children with at least 1 visit Place of visit‘ Insurance coverage Total Total Physician's Health Icenzter ER OPD Other3 office or clinic Number of children in thousands Percent of children4 All children ........................................ 48,821 ... 79.8 19.5 29.2 16.3 9.7 Nonpoor children ......................................... 36,865 ... 83.7 16.5 27.2 13.5 9.6 Low-income children ...................................... 11,956 ... 67.8 28.7' 35.2 24.8 10.1 Medicaid. . . . ............................................ 5,810 ... 67.5 34.1 36.9 24.1 10.2 Full year ............................................... 4,585 ... 68.1 33.6 34.9 24.7 10.2 Part year .............................................. 1,226 ... 65.3 35.6 44.5 21.5 10.4 No Medicaid ............................................. 6,146 ... 68.0 23.7 33.6 25.5 9.9 Private insurance ....................................... 4,430 ... 66.1 23.0 35.6 27.2 10.8 No insurance ........................................... 1,716 ... 73.0 25.5 28.5 21.3 7.7 Number of visits in thousands Percent distribution of visits All children ........................................ 199,911 100.0 66.8 9.3 10.0 10.4 3.5 Nonpoor children ......................................... 154,120 100.0 71.9 8.4 8.7 7.3 3.6 Low-income children ...................................... 45,792 100.0 49.5 12.2 14.3 20.8 3.2 Medicaid ................................................ 22,649 100.0 50.4 15.1 15.9 15.3 3.2 Full year ............................................... 17,288 100.0 49.3 16.2 15.6 15.6 3.3 Part year .............................................. 5,361 100.0 54.0 11.4 16.9 14.7 3.0 No Medicaid ............................................. 23,142 100.0 48.6 9.5 12.7 26.1 3.2 Private insurance ....................................... 18,255 100.0 45.5 9.1 12.5 29.4 3.2 No insurance ........................................... 4,887 100.0 59.0 10.7 13.5 13.7 3.1 ‘Excludes telephone contacts. 2Includes vrsrts to community health centers and school clinics. 3Includes laboratory and home visits as well as visits to unspecified places. 4Some children Visited more than 1 place; therefore, the rows do not total 100 percent. 16 Table 11 Number and .percent distribution of low-income children and amount and percent distribution of expenditures for physicians' services by insurance coverage: United States, 1980 Insurance coverage Low-income children Expenditures for physicians' services‘ Total ...................................................... Medicaid ......................................................... Full year ....................................................... Part year ....................................................... Number in thousands 16,846 7,725 6,248 1,478 9,120 6,425 2,695 Percent distribution 100.0 45.9 37.1 8.8 54.1 38.1 16.0 Number in thousands of dollars 1,427,057 692,089 514,598 177,491 734,969 632,839 102,130 Percent distribution 100.0 48.5 36.1 12.4 51.5 44.3 7.2 1The data in this column represent the expenditures for children in each of the insurance categories. They do not represent the amounts spent by the Medicaid program for those covered full or part year nor by private insurers for those who were privately insured. These figures are the sum of all sources of payment on behalf of children in each of the groups. (Payments for insurance premiums are excluded.) Table 12 Number of low-income children, number of physician visits, and average charge per child and per physician visit, by insurance coverage: United States, 1980 Low-income children Average charge Physician visits Average charge Insurance coverage . . per child , per visit Total W'Fh W'th with charge Total W'th with charge VISIt charge charge Number in Number in thousands thousands Total ..................................... 16,846 11,956 11,347 $125.77 45,792 40,555 $35.19 Medicaid ........................................ 7,726 5,810 5,545 ' 124.82 22,649 19,780 34.99 Full year ....................................... 6,248 4,585 4,366 117.85 17,288 15,037 34.22 Part year ...................................... 1,478 1,226 1,178 150.64 5,361 4,743 37.42 No Medicaid ..................................... 9,120 6,146 5,802 126.67 23,142 20,775 35.38 Private insurance ............................... 6,425 4,430 4,216 150.09 18,255 16,454 38.46 No insurance ................................... 2,695 1,716 1,586 64.40 4,887 4,320 23.64 NOTE: The average charges per child and per visit include charges that were imputed. Altogether, 58 percent of the charges were imputed, ranging from 21 percent for those who were uninsured to 86 percent for those who had Medicaid only the entire year. Table 13 Percent distribution of low-income children by out- ot—pocket expenditures for physician visits, according to insurance coverage, with average out-of-pocket expenditures: United States, 1980 Insurance coverage Out-of-pocket expenditures for physician visits Average out-of-pocket Total None $1-$49 $50—$99 $100 or more No contact expenditures‘ Percent distribution of children Total ..................................... 100.0 36.3 21.2 8.2 5.2 29.0 $28.27 Medicaid ........................................ 100.0 58.6 10.7 4.0 2.0 24.8 13.47 Full year ...................................... 100.0 62.5 7.5 2.2 21.2 26.6 9.98 Part year ...................................... 100.0 41.9 24.4 11.8 25.0 17.0 26.51 No Medicaid. . . . ................................. 100.0 17.5 30.1 11.7 8.0 32.6 42.27 Private insurance ............................... 100.0 19.8 30.9 10.4 7.8 31.0 39.22 No insurance .................................. 100.0 12.1 28.4 14.7 8.5 36.3 50.16 1Average based only on children with 1 or more physician visits. 2Relative standard error equal to or greater than 0.30 17 Appendixes |. Technical Notes on Methods ......................................................................... 19 Survey Background ............................................................................... 19 Sample Design of NMCUES ........................................................................ 19 Research Triangle Institute Sample Design ........................................................... 20 National Opinion Research Center Sample Design ..................................................... 20 Collection of Data ................................................................................ 21 Imputation ...................................................... I ............................... 21 Weighting and Estimation ......................................................................... 22 Estimators ................................ I ......................................... ‘ ............. 23 Reliability of Estimates .......................................... K ................................. 24 ll. Definition of Terms ................................................................................. 27 List of Appendix Tables l. Average design effects for percents ................................................... - ................ 24 n, Standard errors of estimates for means ................................................................ 25 18 Appendix I. Technical Notes on Methods Survey Background The National Medical Care Utilization and Expendi— ture Survey (NMCUES) was a panel survey designed to collect data about the US. civilian noninstitutionalized population in 1980. During the course of the survey, in- formation was obtained on health, access to and use of medical services. associated charges and sources of pay- ment. and health insurance coverage. The survey was cosponsored by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and the Health Care Financing Administration. Data collection was provided under contract by the Re- search Triangle Institute and its subcontractors, National Opinion Research Center and SysteMetrics, Inc. The basic survey plan for NMCUES drew heavily on two surveys, the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), conducted by NCHS, and the National Medical Care Expenditure Survey (NMCES), cosponsored by the National Center for Health Services Research and NCHS. NHIS is a continuing, multipurpose, cross-sectional survey first conducted in 1957. The main purpose of NHIS is to collect information on illness, disability, and the use of medical care. Although some information on medical expenditures and insurance payments has been collected in NHIS, the cross-sectional nature of the sur- vey design is not well suited for providing annual data on expenditures and payments. NMCES was a panel survey in which a sample of households was interviewed six times over an 18—month period in 1977 and 1978. NMCES was specifically de- signed to provide comprehensive data on how health services were used and paid for in the United States in 1977. NMCUES is similar to NMCES in survey design and questionnaire wording, so that analysis of some of the change during- the 3 years between 1977 and 1980 is possible. Both NMCUES and NMCES used question wording that was similar to NHIS in areas common to the three surveys. Together they provide extensive infor- mation on illness, disability. use of medical care, costs of medical care, sources of payment for medical care, and health insurance coverage at two points in time. Sample Design of NMCUES The NMCUES sample of housing units and group quarters, hereafter jointly referred to as dwelling units, is a concatenation of two independently selected national samples, one provided by the Research Triangle Institute and the other by the National Opinion Research Center. The sample designs used by these two organizations are similar with respect to principal design features; both can be characterized as stratified, four—stage area probability designs. The principal differences between the two de— signs are the type of stratification variables and the specific definitions of sampling units at each stage. The salient design features of the two sample surveys are summarized in the following sections. The target population for NMCUES consisted of all persons who were members of the US. civilian noninsti- tutionalized population at any time between January 1 and December 31, 1980. All persons living in a sample dwell- ing unit at the time of the first interview contact became part of the national sample. Unmarried students 17—22 years of age who lived away from home were included in the sample when a parent origuardian was included in the sample. In addition, persons who died or were institu- tionalized between January 1 and the date of first interview were included in the sample if they were related to persons living in the sampled dwelling units. All of these persons were considered key persons, and data were collected for them for the full 12 months of 1980 or for the proportion of time they were part of the US. civilian noninstitution— alized population. In addition, babies born to key persons were considered key persons, and data were collected for them from the time of birth. Relatives from outside the original population (that is, institutionalized, in the Armed Forces, or outside the United States between January 1 and the first interview) who moved in with key persons after the first interview were also considered key persons, and data were collected for them from the time they joined the key person. Relatives who moved in with key persons after the first interview but were part of the civilian non— institutionalized population on January 1, 1980, were classified as “nonkey” persons. Data were collected for nonkey persons for the time that they lived with a key 19 person but, because they had a chance of selection in the initial sample, their data are not used for general person- level analysis. However, data for nonkey persons are used in family analysis because they do contribute to the family’s utilization of and expenditures for health care during the time they are part of the family. Persons included in the sample were grouped into “reporting units” for data collection purposes. Reporting units were defined as all persons related to each other by blood, marriage, adoption, or foster care status and living in the same dwelling unit. The combined NMCUES sample consisted of 7,244 eligible reporting units, of which 6,599 agreed to participate in the survey. In total, data were obtained on 17,123 key persons. The Research Triangle Institute sample yielded 8,326 key persons and the National Opinion Research Center sample yielded 8,797. Research Triangle Institute Sample Design A primary sampling unit (PSU) is defined as a county, a group of contiguous counties, or parts of counties with a combined minimum 1970 population size of 20,000. A total of 1,686 disjoint PSU’s exhausts the land area of the 50 States and Washington, DC. The PSU’s are classified as one of two types. The 16 largest standard metropolitan statistical areas (SMSA’s) are designated as self—representing PSU’s, and the remaining 1,670 PSU’s in the primary sampling frame are designated as non-self—representing PSU’s. PSU’s are grouped into strata whose members tend to be relatively alike within strata and relatively unlike between strata. PSU’s derived from the 16 largest SMSA’s had sufficient population in 1970 to be treated as primary strata. The 1,659 non-self-representing PSU’s from the continental United States were stratified into 42 primary strata with approximately equal populations. Each of these primary strata had a 1970 population of about 3.3 million. One supplementary primary stratum of 11 PSU’s, with a 1970 population of about 1 million, was added to the Research Triangle Institute primary frame to include Alaska and Hawaii. The total first stage sample for Research Triangle Institute consisted of 59 PSU’s, of which 16 were self- representing PSU’s. The non-self—representing PSU’s were obtained by selecting one PSU from each of the 43 non-self—representing primary strata. These PSU’s were selected with probability proportional to 1970 population Size. In each of the 59 sample PSU’s the entire PSU was divided into smaller disjoint area units called secondary sampling units (SSU’s). Each SSU consisted of one. or more 1970 census—defined enumeration districts or block groups. Within each PSU the SSU’s were ordered and then partitioned to form secondary strata of approximately equal size. Two secondary strata were formed in the non- 20 self-repreSenting PSU drawn from Alaska and Hawaii and four secondary strata were formed in each of the remaining 42 non-self-representing PSU’s. Thus, the non-self—representing PSU’s were partitioned into a total of 170 secondary strata. In a similar manner the 16 self- representing PSU’s were partitioned into 144 secondary strata. In the second stage of selection, one SSU was selected from each of the 144 secondary strata covering the self- representing PSU’s, and two SSU’s were selected from each of the remaining secondary strata. All second- stage sampling was with replacement and with probabil- ity proportional to the SSU’s total noninstitutionalized population. The total number of sample SSU’s was 2 X170 +144 = 484. For the third stage of selection, each SSU was first divided into smaller, disjoint geographic areas, and one . area within the SSU was selected with probability pro— portional to the total number of housing units in 1970. Next, one or more disjoint segments of at least 60 housing units were formed in the selected area. One segment was selected from each SSU with probability proportional to the segment housing unit count. In response to the spon- soring agencies’ request that the expected household sample size be reduced, a systematic sample of one—sixth of the segments was deleted from the sample. Thus, the total third-stage sample was reduced to 404 segments. For the fourth stage of selection, all of the dwelling units within the segment were listed, and a systematic sample of dwelling units was selected. The procedures used to determine the sampling rate for segments guaran- teed that all dwelling units had an approximately equal overall probability of selection. All of the reporting units within the selected dwelling units were included in the sample. National Opinion Research Center Sample Design The land area of the 50 States and Washington, DC, was also divided into disjoint PSU’s for the National Opinion Research Center design. A PSU consisted of SMSA’s, parts of SMSA’s, counties, parts of counties, or independent cities. Grouping of counties into a single PSU occurred when individual counties had a 1970 pop- ulation of less than 10,000. The PSU’s were classified into two groups according to metropolitan status— SMSA or not SMSA. These two groups were individually ordered and then partitioned into zones with a 1970 census population size of approx- imately 1 million. A single PSU was selected within each zone with a probability proportional to its 1970 population. It should be noted that this procedure allowed a PSU to be selected more than one time. For instance, an SMSA primary sampling unit with a population of 3 million could be selected at least twice and possibly as many as four times. The full general—purpose sample contained 204 PSU’s. These 204 PSU’s were systematically allocated for 4 subsamples of 51 PSU’s. The final set of 76 sample PSU’s was chosen by randomly selecting 2 complete subsamples of 51 PSU’s; 1 subsample was included in its entirety, and 25 of the PSU’s in the other subsample were selected systematically for inclusion in NMCUES. For the second stage, each of the PSU’s selected in the first stage was partitioned into a disjoint set of SSU’s defined by block groups, enumeration districts, or a com- bination of the two types of census units. Within each sample PSU, the SSU’s were ordered and then partitioned into 18 zones such that each zone contained approxi— mately the same number of households. One SSU had the opportunity to be selected more than once, as was the case in the PSU selection. If a PSU had been hit more than once in the first stage, the second stage selection process was repeated as many times as there were first— stage hits. The 405 SSU’s were identified by selecting 5 SSU’s from each of the 51 PSU’s in the subsample that was included in its entirety, and 6 SSU’s from each of the 25 PSU’s in the group for which only one-half of the PSU’s were included. The SSU’s selected in the second stage were then subdivided into area segments with a minimum size of 100 housing units each. One segment was then selected with probability proportional to the estimated number of housing units. The fourth stage selection of housing units for the National Opinion Research Center was essentially the same as that used by the Research Triangle Institute. Collection of Data Field operations for NMCUES were performed by the Research Triangle Institute and the National Opinion Research Center under specifications established by the sponsoring agencies. Persons in the sample dwelling units were interviewed at approximately 3—month intervals beginning in February 1980 and ending March 1981. The Core Questionnaire was administered during each of the five rounds of interviews to collect data on health, health care, health care charges, sources of payment, and health insurance coverage. A summary of responses was used to update information reported in previous rounds. Supplements to the Core Questionnaire were used during the first, third, and fifth rounds of interviews to collect data that were not expected to change during the year or that were needed only once. Approximately 80 percent of the third and fourth rounds of interviews were con— ducted by telephone; all remaining interviews were con— ducted in person. The respondent for the interview was required to be a household member 17 years of age or older. A proxy respondent not residing in the household was permitted only if all eligible household members were unable to respond because of health, language, or mental condition. Imputation Nonresponse in panel surveys such as NMCUES occurs when sample individuals refuse to participate in the survey (total nonresponse), when initially participating individuals drop out of the survey (attrition nonresponse), or when data for specific items on the questionnaire are not collected (item nonresponse). In general, response rates for NMCUES were excellent. Approximately 90 percent of the sample reporting units agreed to participate in the survey, and approximately 94 percent of the indi- viduals in the participating reporting units supplied com— plete annual information. Even though the overall response rates are quite high for NMCUES, the estimates of means and proportions may be biased if nonrespondents have different health care experiences than respondents, or if there is a substantial response rate differential across subgroups of the target population. Furthermore, totals will tend to be underestimated unless allowance is made for the loss of data due to nonresponse. Two methods commonly used to compensate for survey nonresponse are data imputation and the adjust- ment of sampling weights. For NMCUES, imputation was used to compensate for attrition and item nonre— sponse, and weight adjustment was used to compensate for total nonresponse. Calculation of the weight adjust- ment factors is discussed in the section on sampling weights. A specialized form of the sequential hot—deck impu- tation method was used for attrition imputation. First, each sample person with incomplete annual data (hereafter referred to as a “recipient”) was linked to a sample person with similar demographic and socioeconomic character- istics who had complete annual data (hereafter referred to as a “donor”). Second, the time periods for which the recipient had missing data were divided into two cate— gories—imputed eligible days and imputed ineligible days. The imputed eligible days were those days for which the donor was eligible (that is, in scope), and the imputed ineligible days were those days for which the donor was ineligible (that is, out of scope). For the re- cipient’s imputed eligible days, the donor’s medical care experiences (such as medical provider visits, dental visits, or hospital stays) were imputed into the recipient’s record. Finally, the results of the attrition imputation were used to make the final determination of a person’s respondent status. If more than two-thirds of the person’s total eligible days (both reported and imputed) were imputed, then the person was considered to be a total nonrespondent, and all data for the person were removed from the analytic data file. The data collection methodology and field quality control procedures for NMCUES were designed so that the data would be as accurate and complete as possible subject to budget considerations. However, individuals cannot report data that are unknown to them, or they may choose not to report the data even if they are known. This latter situation is especially true for data relating to 21 expenditures, income, and other sensitive topics. Because of the size and complexity of the NMCUES data base, it was not feasible, from a cost standpoint, to replace all missing data for all data items. The 12-month data files, for example, contain approximately 1,400 data items per person. With this in mind, the NMCUES approach was to designate a subset of the total items on the data base for imputation of the missing data. Thus for 5 percent of the NMCUES data items, the responses were edited and missing data imputed by a combination of logic and hot— deck procedures to produce revised variables for use in analysis. Items for which imputations were made cover the following data areas: . Visit charges. 0 Source of payment codes and amounts. - Annual disability days. - Health insurance premium amount. 0 Length of hospital stay. 0 Total weeks worked in 1980. 0 Average hours worked per week. 0 Educational level. 0 Hispanic origin. - Income. 0 Age and birthdate. - Race. - Sex. 0 Health insurance coverage. - Visit dates. These items were selected as the most important variables for statistical analyses. Weighting and Estimation For the analysis of NMCUES data, sample weights are required to reflect the complex sample design and to adjust for the potential biasing effects of systematic non- sampling errors related to total nonresponse and sampling frame undercoverage. Data imputation procedures, dis- cussed in the preceding section, were used to compensate for attrition and item nonresponse. Development of weights reflecting the sample design of NMCUES was the first step in the computation of person-level analytical weights. The basic sample—design weight for a dwelling unit is the product of four weight components that correspond to the four stages of sample selection. Each of the four weight components is the in- verse of the probability of selection at the stage when sampling was without replacement, or it is the inverse of the expected number of selections when sampling was with replacement and multiple selection of the sample unit was possible. As previously discussed, the NMCUES sample is 22 composed of two independently selected samples. Each sample, together with its basic sampling weights, yields independent unbiased estimates of population parameters. Because the two NMCUES samples were of approxi- mately equal size, a simple average of the two independent estimators was used for the combined sample estimator. This is equivalent to defining an adjusted basic weight by dividing each basic sample weight by 2. Hereafter only the combined sample and the adjusted basic weights are considered. ' The total nonresponse-undercoverage adjustment factor is computed at the reporting unit (RU) level. Be— cause every RU within a dwelling unit is included in the sample, the adjusted basic weight assigned to an RU is simply the adjusted basic weight for the dwelling unit in which the RU is located. As noted above, an RU was classified as responding if the RU initially agreed to participate in NMCUES and as nonresponding otherwise. Initially 96 RU weight adjustment cells were formed by cross-classifying the following RU variables: race of RU head (white or all other), type of RU head (female, male, husband-wife), age of RU head (four levels), and size of RU (four levels). These cells were then collapsed to 63 cells so that each cell contained at least 20 re- sponding RU’s. The formula for computing the total nonresponse- undercoverage adjustment factor for RU’s in cell C was CPS(C) A1(C) = ———-—, k§C¢(k)W1(k) where CPS(C) = March 1980 Current Population Sur- vey estimate of the number of RU’s in cell C 1 if kth RU was classified as responding (NC) = 0 otherwise W1(k) = the adjusted basic weight for the kth RU The nonresponse—undercoverage adjusted weight for the kth RU, denoted by W2(k), was then computed as the product of the adjusted basic weight for kth RU and the nonresponse—undercoverage adjustment factor for the cell containing the RU. The poststratification adjustment factor is computed at the person level. As each person within an RU is in- cluded in the sample, the nonresponse—undercoverage adjusted weight for a sample person is the nonresponse- undercoverage adjusted weight for the RU in which the person resides. Each person was classified as responding or nonresponding as discussed in the section on attrition imputation. Initially, 60 poststrata were formed by cross-classi- fying the following three variables: age (15 levels), race (black or all other), and sex (male or female). One post— stratum (black males over 75 years of age) had fewer than 20 respondents so it was combined with an adjacent poststratum (black males 65—74 years of age), resulting in 59 poststrata. Estimates based on the 1980 census of the US. civil- ian noninstitutionalized population by age, race, and sex for February 1, May 1, August 1, and November 1, 1980, were obtained from the US. Bureau of the Census. The mean of the mid-quarter population estimates for each of the poststrata was computed and used as the 1980 average target population in calculating the post- strata adjustment factors. The poststratification adjustment was designed to produce population estimates consistent with the 1980 census for 59 poststrata. Population estimates from NMCUES for other subpopulations (such as income groups) will differ from those estimates produced by the 1980 census and the March 1981 Current Population Survey (CPS). According to NMCUES, there were 9.8 million children under 18 years of age living below the poverty level in 1980. The figure from the 1981 CPS was 11.1 million related children under 18 years of age (US. Bureau of the Census, 1983). This represents a difference of 1.3 million children, or 13.3 percent. This difference may result from two factors. First, the NMCUES estimate excludes children who were born, who died, or who were institutionalized in 1980, as well as others who were not eligible to participate in the survey for the entire year. Only institutionalized children were excluded from the CPS estimate. Second, NMCUES employs slightly different poverty thresholds that do not distinguish between farm and nonfarm families and that do not take into account the number of children in the family. The net effect of these two factors is to lower the NMCUES estimate of the number of children in poverty. Survey—based estimates of the average poststrata . population were developed using the nonresponse- undercoverage adjusted weights. First, a survey-based estimate of the target population of poststratum p at mid— quarter q was computed as follows: S(p,q) = jg8(q,j)W2(j) where 1 301,] ) = { 0 otherwise if survey respondent j was in scope at mid-quarter q W2( j) = nonresponse—undercoverage adjusted weight of respondent j. The survey-based estimate of the 1980 average pop- ulation for poststratum p was computed as the mean of the four mid-quarter estimates, or 1 4 S(p)=; X 2 S(p,q) q=l The post—stratification adjustment factor for the pth post- stratum was then computed as C(19) A 20’) = S(p) where C(p) = mean 1980 population for poststratum p based on US Bureau of Census data. The poststratified weight for the jth respondent, denoted by W3( j ), was then computed as the product of the nonresponse-undercoverage adjusted weight for the jth respondent and poststratifica— tion adjustment factor for the poststrata containing the respondent. For many analyses estimates of the average 1980 population are required. Because some respondents were eligible for only a portion of the year, the aggregation of the W3 weights over all respondents is an estimate of the total number of persons who were in the civilian noninsti- tutionalized population of the United States in 1980 and is an overestimate of the average 1980 population size. Therefore an adjustment factor was calculated for each respondent to reflect the proportion of time during 1980 the respondent was eligible to report NMCUES data. This adjustment factor for respondent j is where E( j) = number of days during 1980 respondent j was in scope. Estimators Weighted linear estimators are used for estimating population and population subdomain aggregates. Sup- pose, for example, an estimate of the parameter “total doctor visit charges for persons under 18' years of age” is desired. - The estimator of this parameter, denoted by 6, is given by 0 = jg; W3(J)Xj where A is the collection of all NMCUES respondents under 18 years of age and X]- is the total doctor visit charges reported by the jth respondent during the eligible period. Ratio estimators are used for estimating population and population subdomain in parameters such as means. proportions, and rates. As will be illustrated in the fol— lowing examples, care must be taken in determining the appropriate weights to be used in the denominator of the ratio estimator. Example I—The NMCUES estimator for the pro— portion of doctor visits attributable to persons under 18 23 years of age is given by W ' . - = jg 30) )3 W ' _ 311. 3(1) Y, where yj is the number of doctor visits reported by the jth respondent. Example 2—_The NMCUES estimator for mean an— , nual doctor visit charges for persons under 18 years of age is given by jg W3(J')Xj g = ___ jg W3(J)A3(J) where X]- is the total doctor visit charges reported by the jth respondent during his or her eligible period, and A3( j ) is the time adjustment factor for the jth respondent. The time adjustment factor is used in this situation to adjust for the fact that the jth respondent contributed doctor visit charges to the numerator only during the period of eligibility. ‘ Reliability of Estimates The estimates presented in this report are based on a sample of the target population rather than the entire population. Thus the values of the estimates may be dif— ferent from values that would be obtained from a complete census. The difference between a sample estimate and the population value is referred to as the sampling error, and the expected magnitude of the sampling error is measured by a statistic called the standard error. Because of the NMCUES complex sample design, simple random sampling assumptions cannot be used to compute variances and standard errors. The SESUDAAN (Shah, 1981) standard error estimation software package was used to produce the estimates of standard er- rors, taking into account the complex sample design. .SESUDAAN is a Taylor Series procedure, developed at and released by the Research Triangle Institute. It runs within the Statistical Analysis System (SAS Institute, Inc., 1982). For the purpose of this report, PSU’s with no sample cases were collapsed to permit the computation of standard errors. The ratio of the variance under the complex sample design to the variance under simple random sampling assumptions is called the design effect. Average design effects for the percents presented in the detailed tables are shown in Table I, and estimated standard errors for. the means are shown in Table II. It should also be noted that in addition to sampling error, the estimates presented in this report are subject to nonsampling errors such as biased interviewing and re- porting, undercoverage, and nonresponse. The standard error does not provide an estimate of these types of errors. However, as discussed in preceding sections, every effort was made to minimize these errors. Suppose that 0 is an unbiased estimator for the Table I Average design effects for percents Insurance coverage Total‘ Regulazr No regul33r Preventive Children :vith Numbersof source source care a Visit Visns All children ........................ 2.17 3.22 16.66 (5,074) (3,876) (15,811) Nonpoor children ......................... 2.27 3.03 18.16 (3,665) (2,879) (12,016) Low-income children ...................... 2.73 3.10 1.91 1.42 2.07 6.53 (1,409) (1,191) (218) (470) (997) (3,795) Medicaid ................................ 2.42 2.44 1.53 1.29 1.53 8.96 (654) (552) (102) (218) (490) (1,495) Full year ............................... - 2.04 2.45 1.50 1.21 1.33 3.83 (529) (449) (80) (176) (384) (1,903) Part'year .............................. 1.88 1.61 1.68 1.35 1.36 8.83 (125) (103) (22) (42) (106) (1,892) No Medicaid ............................. 2.56 2.86 1.74 1.13 2.74 2.09 (755) (639) (116) (252) (507) (397) Private insurance ....................... 2.58 2.76 1.54 1.08 2.65 4.18 (532) (459) (73) (177) (364) (1,437) No insurance ........................... 2.12 2.43 1.57 1.16 1.50 2.52 (223) (180) (43) (74) (143) (466) 1For Tables 1, 3, 4, 6, and 13. The denominators for Table 1 are the "totals" for the subpopulations, rather than the separate insurance categories. 2For Tables 5 and 7. 3For Table 7. “For Table 9. Denominators and design effects averaged for 3 age groups. 5For Table 10, top. 6For Table 10, bottom. NOTE: Sample size in parentheses. 24 Table 11 Standard errors of estimates for means Medicaid No Medicaid Me n All Nonpoor Low-income a 5 children children children Full Part Private No Total Total . . year year insurance Insurance Table 3 Average age in years ................ 0.20 0.31 0.34 0.60 0.29 0.37 0.37 Average number of children in family. .. 0.10 0.13 0.12 0.32 0.14 0.18 0.19 Average income in dollars ............ 272.20 231.51 280.49 371.58 385.39 534.85 564.75 Average number of bed days .......... 0.27 0.47 0.53 0.81 0.26 0.37 0.45 Table 5 Average travel time in minutes ........ 0.83 1.00 1.23 1.67 1.10 1.24 2.22 Average waiting time in minutes ...... 3.11 4.16 4.55 6.38 3.63 3.29 7.78 Table 6 Average number of physician visits: Per child ........................ 0.09 0.12 0.16 0.15 0.36 0.26 0.33 0.19 Per child with visit ................ 0.10 0.14 0.18 0.17 0.41 0.32 0.40 0.20 Table 7 Average number of physician visits: With regular source ............... 0.18 0.15 0.16 0.35 0.29 0.36 0.22 No regular source ................. 0.25 0.51 0.58 1.02 0.24 0.35 0.23 Table 8 Average number of visits to private physicians: Per child ........................ 0.07 0.10 0.12 0.26 0.10 0.12 0.14 Per child with visit ................ 0.10 0.16 0.19 0.27 0.14 0.19 0.18 Table 12 Average charge: Per child with visit ................ 12.48 9.11 8.22 24.99 22.91 29.39 5.29 Per visit with charge .............. 2.21 2.21 4.37 3.67 4.16 1.40 Table 13 Average out-of-pocket expenditures... 2.20 2.94 3.35 5.99 3.86 4.36 5.18 parameter 0 and $9 is a consistent estimator for the standard error of 0. Under appropriate centralAlimit theorem assumptions regarding 0, the statistic Z = (0 — 0)/S§ has an approximate standard normal distribution for large samples. Thus, an approximate (l m a) X 100 percent confidence interval for 0 is given by ((9 + Za/zsé, 9 + 21-0230 where 41/2 and z] _ 01/2 are the appropriate values from a standard normal table. As an example, Table 1 shows the estimate that 16.0 percent of all low-income children in the civilian nonin- stitutionalized population of the United States in 1980’ were uninsured the entire year. From Table I, the average design effect is 2.73. Therefore, the estimated variance 1s (.16)(.84) 19409 ><(2.73) = .0003 and the standard error is .016. Because 68 percent of the area under the normal curve is within 1 standard error of the midpoint, 95 percent of the area within 2 standard errors, and 99 percent within 2.5 standard errors, the following may be inferred: Chances are 68 out of 100 that the true value is 16.0 i .016, or between 15.98 and 16.02 percent; chances are 95 out of 100 that the true value is 16.0i 2(.016), or between 15.97 and 16.03 percent; and chances are 99 out of 100 that the true value is 16.0 i 2.5(.016), or between 15.96 and 16.04 percent. Confidence intervals for the difference of two pa- rameters can be constructed in a similar manner. Suppose 91 and 02 are the values of the parameter of interest in tyvo mutually exclusive population subgroups. If 01 and 02 are unbiased “estimators of 01 and 02, respectively, then d = 01 and 02 is unbiased for d = 01 - 02 and Var(a) = Var(é,) + Var(92) — 2 Cov(él,éz) Unfortunately the estimation of Var(al) presents a problem because it is not possible for NCHS to provide 25 the reader with covariance estimates for all possible pairs of subdomains of potential interest. However, if it is reasonable to assume that Cov(01, 92) = O, the standard error of d can be estimated by Sg=,/S§1+S§2 Then, under appropriate central limit theorem assumptions regarding d, the statistic Z, = (d — d)/Sg has an approx- imate standard normal distribution for large samples, and the interval ([1 + Za/zsa, a + Zi—a/zsa) is an approximate (1 - a) X 100 percent confidence in- terval for the difference d. By way of example, suppose construction of a 95- percent confidence interval for the difference between the percent of Medicaid children with no physician visits (01) and the percent of non-Medicaid children with no phy- sician visits (02), is desired. From Table 6, it is seen that 01 é 24.8 and 02 = 32.6, therefore, d=91 — é, = 24.8 — 32.6 = —7.8 The standard errors may also be derived from Table 1 so that S3] = Wham = .0007 S2 _ (.326)(.674) 02 ‘ 755 .= 2. 2. s, (/sfil+sez = , /.0007 + .0007 = .0386 (2.56) = .0007 Then, as a = .05, it follows that Za/z = —1.96 and Z1 _ 01/2 = 1.96, so that the 95—percent confidence interval for the difference of interest is (-7.88, —7.72). The reader should be aware that the assumption that Cov( 01, 02) = 0 is frequently not true for complex sample surveys. This warning is especially germane for sample designs, such as the NMCUES design, which rely on cluster sampling at one or more stages of sample selection. If Cov(01, 02) is positive, the confidence interval will tend to be too large, and hence the confidence level will be understated. More seriously, if Cov(01, 02) is negative, 26 the confidence interval will tend to be too small, and the confidence level will be overstated. The statistics Z and Zd can be used to test hypotheses. For example, the size a critical region for the composite hypothesis HoZdZdo versus HA 2d