SM 5.4 October 1981 (Supersedes SM 5.4 Feb. 1981, which can be used) USERS, MANUAL] , i5 U.S. DEPOSITORY APR 2 21983 / ETEIORIJLOGICAL EDA'I‘A F0“ RAIIWLOGICAL DEFENSE _; {fimcummm DEPAR'izaéEm 3 a E MAY 1 9 Li {WW 1 r‘ ' mannml “4 federal emergency management agency 3 TD 2923’ 7 RBUX / w E EA m CONTENTS Page SCOPE ..................... '. .................................................. 3 FALLOUT FORECASTS ......................................................... 3 Basic Data .................................................................. 3 Determining Ground Zero Location ........................................ 3 Weapon Yield and Dimension of the Nuclear Cloud .......................... 3 Upper Air Wind. Information (General) .................................... 4 Wind Data for Fallout Forecasts (Summary Description) .......................... 6 Use and Limitations of Fallout Forecasts ....................................... 9 Preparing Fallout Forecasts Using DF Data ..................................... 9 Forecasts for Large Areas (Several States) .................................. 9 For States and StateAreas ................................................ 9 Initial Fallout Forecast Plotting Procedures ...................................... 10 Update Fallout Warnings ..................................................... 12 Procedures for Preparing Update Fallout Warnings ............................... 13 CLIMATOLOGICAL FACTORS TO BE CONSIDERED IN DETERMINING FALL OUT PROBABILITY ......................................................... 14 Basis of the Data ........................................................... 14- Seasonal and Annual Tabulation ............................................... 14 . Streamline and Isotach Analysis ............................................... 14 Daily Variability ............................................................ 14 Probabilities in Windrose Form ............................................... l6 RADEF DATA FOR TESTS AND EXERCISES ...................................... 23 Particle sizes, Associated Radioactivity, and Fall Rates ........................... 23 Dimensions of Hypothetical Dose Rate Contours ............................... ,' . 23 TEST AND EXERCISE DATA (See Tables 6 and 7.) ILLUSTRATIONS 1. Approximate Nuclear Cloud Dimensions ....................................... 4 2. DF Data Points ............................................................. 7 3. Time Periods for Use of DF Data .............................................. 8 4. DF Message Format ......................................................... 9 5. Example Streamline Analysis ................................................. 10 6. Fallout Forecast Template ................................................... 11 7. Using a Fallout Forecast Template ............................................ 12 8. Fall Climatological Wind Direction and Average Speed ............................ 17 9. Winter Climatological Wind Direction and Average Speed ........................ 18 10. Spring Climatological Wind Direction and Average Speed .......................... 19 l ,; If: I] “r y Page 11. Summer Climatological Wind Direction and Average Speed ....................... 20 12. Annual Climatological Wind Direction and Average Speed ......................... 21 13. Variation of the Mean Seasonal Wind Directions ................................ 22 14. Fall Times of Particles from Various Altitudes, and Percentages of Total Activity Carried .......................................................... 24 TABLES 1. Locations of DF Data Points in the Continental United States, Alaska, Hawaii, the Caribbean Area (Puerto Rico), and Canada .............................. 4 2. Maximum Downwind Extent of 50 R/ hr Intensity ............................... 13 3. Maximum Downwind Extent of .05 R/ hr Intensity ................................ 13 4. Climatological Mean Wind Direction and Average Speed, and Vector Standard Deviation ....................................................... 15 5. Ratio of Vector Standard Deviations to Average Wind Speeds and the Range of the Annual Mean Wind Direction in Degrees ................................. 16 6. Test and Exercise Data—Dimensions of Hypothetical Dose Rate Contours ............ 25 7. Test and Exercise Data—Dimensions of Hypothetical Dose Contours ................ 2‘8 APPLICATION OF METEOROLOGICAL DATA TO RADIOLOGICAL DEFENSE SCOPE This manual provides guidance to assist State and local governments in the use of meteorological data to: 1. Prepare area fallout forecasts and estimates of fallout arrival time for operational use. 2. Prepare hypothetical dose rate and dose contours for use in conjunction with tests and exercises. 3. Determine the most probable direction and ex- tent of fallout distribution in areas of interest as a basis for preattack planning. FALLOUT FORECASTS Basic Data In the preparation of area fallout forecasts and esti- mates of fallout arrival time, the following basic data are needed: ‘ Approximate ground zero (GZ) location and time of detonation. ° An assumed yield of the weapon or the dimensions of the nuclear cloud at time of stabilization. (A yield of 3 million tons of TNT—equivalent to 3 megatons (MT)—may be assumed unless there is reason to believe that the nature of the target would make a different yield more likely.) ' Upper air wind information. Determining Ground Zero Location Knowledge of the location of likely targets in the general area of the detonation will be helpful in de- ducing some GZ locations. Analysis of reports of minor blast damage can define the periphery of the blast area, and the center of that area can be taken as GZ. (See FCDG, Part E, Chap. 2, Appen. 3, “Civil De- fense Emergency Operations Reporting System,” and related handbooks.) In some instances, the CZ location may be approxi- mated by visual observation of the direction of the flash or of the stem of the subsequent nuclear (mush- room) cloud. However, it must be recognized (I) that anyone making'such observations would face the haz- ards of burns from thermal radiation, destruction of his eyesight, and—if he were within the blast area— injury from flying debris; and (2) that attempts to observe a nuclear blast would most likely be unsuc- cessful. Observation of the nuclear cloud or stem is not possible at night—or during the day, if the sky is overcast. Also, with heavy overcast, diffused light all over the sky might interfere with observing the direc~ tion of the flash. However, if the direction of the flash has been ob- served, the time interval between the observation of the flash and the detection of the subsequent “bang” will indicate the approximate distance of the G2 loca- tion from the observer. The speed of sound at the earth’s surface is about 1 mile per 5 seconds, or 12 miles per minute. Thus, if there is a lapse of five min- utes between the time the flash is observed and the time the “bang” is heard, the detonation would be about 60 miles away. If, in addition to the direction, the approximate distance of the detonation from the point of observation is known, the Cl location may be determined with sufficient accuracy to prepare an area fallout forecast. GZ location may be determined in some areas by electronic devices, such as atmospheric overpressure or incident thermal radiation detectors, radar, etc. Weapon Yield and Dimensions of the Nuclear Cloud The nuclear cloud from a surface burst will reach stabilization within about 10 minutes after detonation. At this time, when vertical development of the cloud ceases, the dimensions of the cloud (height and diame- ter) will vary with the size of the weapon and the at- mospheric conditions. These variables and the upper air winds are major factors in the spread of fallout. Figure 1 indicates the approximate dimensions of nu- clear clouds as a function of total weapon yield. Upper Air Wind Information (General) Executive Order 11490 assigns to the Department of Commerce (Weather Bureau) the responsibility for preparing and issuing currently, as well as in an emer- APPROXIMATE NUCLEAR CLOUD DIMENSIONS gency, forecasts and estimates of areas likely to be I Illlll I I 1'1111 I lllllll ll'” '1 covered by radiological fallout in the event of nuclear attack, and for making this information available to Federal, State, and local authorities. 20 ' I _ ' 4—36 'I IE 'I - S - 1' use g 16 ,' _ :1 l 9 — ,’ “-2e (53 2 '4 I R z . b i L" L- l _ O r. 2 :9 'I / -2‘ g g ' ’I’ 1/ d-zo 2 .5» ' f _ 2 \ VARIAQILITV m CLOUD 10? i _ //,I/ _ : —IG 9 g e I / E Q '- \ a h ‘ I2 g o _. w. s Q 3,1 _ a .1 - - t i R 4 -—e E 2 / / 4 :/--------— ~P ~----I--T-Tlllll I 1111111 1 1111111 I 1111111 1 0 I Kiloton Z 5 '0 2° 50 I00 200 500 | Mlgnton 2 5 IO 20 30 TOTAL WEAPON YIELD (TNT Eou/VALENI‘) Prepared by sum- Prone" sunon. u.S.quMr luvuu. Vanni-men, D.C $0."qu 195! FIGURE l.—Approximate nuclear cloud dimensions. TABLE 1,—Locations of DF data points in the continental United States, Alaska, Hawaii, the Caribbean Area (Puerto Rico), and Canada (Data transmitted on FAA Service "C") Idem. Ident. Code Location Code Location NERN‘ Us NORTHEASTERN U. S. SERN SOUTHEASTERN U. S. JFK Brooklyn, RIC Richmond, VA . 308 Boston, MA HAT Cape Hatteras, NC AUG Augusta, ME RDU Raleigh, NC CAR Carabou, ME TRI Bristol, TN PLB Plattsburgh, NY BNA Nashville, TN ALB Albany, NY JAN Jackson, MS BUF Buffalo, NY BHM Birmingham, AL IPT Williamsport, PA ATL Atlanta, GA PIT Pittsburgh, PA CAE Columbia, SC BAL Baltimore, MD ILM Wilmington, NC CRW Charleston, WV JAX Jacksonville, FL LOU Louisville, KY TLH Tallahassee, FL Idem. Code TPA MIA MOB MSY S CNTRL US HOU SAT CRP BRO LRD DRT HOB AMA ABI DAL SI-IV MEM LIT OKC ALS DEN GCK HLC ICT MKC SGF STL N CNTRL us IND 0RD CLE FNT SSM GRB DBQ DSM ONL RAP ABR MSP INL NWRN us GFK DIK GGW BIL GTF DLN FCA GEG SEA PDX 0TH RBL LKV JDA BOI CPR TABLE 1.—Locations of BF data points in the continental United States, Alaska, Hawaii, the Caribbean Area (Puerto Rico) , and Canada—Continued (Data transmitted on FAA Service "C") Location Tampa, FL Miami, FL Mobile, AL New Orleans, LA SOUTH CENTRAL U. S. Houston, TX San Antonio, TX Corpus Christi, TX Brownsville, TX Laredo, TX Del Rio, TX Hobbs, NM Amarillo, TX Abilene, TX Dallas, TX Shreveport, LA Memphis, TN Little Rock, AR Oklahoma City, OK Alamosa, CO Denver, CO Garden City, KS Hill City, KS Wichita, KS Kansas City, MO Springfield, MO St. Louis, MO NORTH CENTRAL U. 5. Indianapolis, IN Chicago, IL Cleveland, OH Flint, MI Sault Ste. Marie, MI Green Bay, WI Dubuque, IA Des Moines, IA O’Neill, NB Rapid City, SD Aberdeen, SD Minneapolis, MN International Falls, MN NORTHWESTERN U. s. Grand Forks, ND Dickinson, ND Glasgow, MT Billings, MT Great Falls, MT Dillon, MT Kallispel, MT Spokane, WA Seattle, WA Portland, OR North Bend, OR Red Blufi, CA Lakeview, 0R John Day, 0R Boise, ID Casper, WY Idem. Code BFF smv vs SLC PIH ' RKS G] T FMN ABQ BCE LAS ELY EKO TPH RNO SFO FAT SBA SAN DAG YUM PRC TUS ELP 609 714 731 749 852 863 872 882 892 MAX BRW BTI OTZ BTT OME BET MCG FAI ANC ORT SNP CDB AKN MDO NI-IB YAK J NU ANN SYA ADK may 1T0 L1H DNA 526 Location Scottsblufi, NB SOUTHWESTERN U. 5. Salt Lake City, UT Pocatello, ID Rock Springs, WY Grand Junction, CO Farmington, NM Albuquerque, NM 'Bryce Canyon, UT Las Vegas, NV Ely, NV Elko, NV Tonapah, NV Reno, NV San Francisco, CA Fresno, CA Santa Barbara, CA San Diego, CA Barstow-Daggett, CA Yuma, AZ Prescott, AZ Tucson, AZ El Paso, TX CANADA St. John Quebec North Bay Ft. William Winnepeg Regina Medicine Hat Revelstoke Vancouver Barrow, AK Barter Island, AK Kotzebue, AK Battles, AK Nome, AK Bethe], AK McGrath, AK Fairbanks, AK Anchorage, AK Northway, AK St. Paul, AK Cold Bay, AK King Salmon, AK Middleton Island, AK Kodiak, AK Yakatat, AK Juneau, AK Annette Island, AK Shemya, AK Adak, AK ALASKA HAWAII Hilo Lihue CARIBBEAN San Juan, Puerto Rico The Weather Bureau maintains a network of “Rawin” observatories which measure, by electronic methods, the direction and speed of the wind from the earth’s surface to high altitudes above the surface. These data are used primarily for routinely analyz- ing and forecasting the motions of the atmosphere. The data are transmitted to a central location at Suit- land, Maryland, where they are processed by a com- puter system into several forms, for a variety of uses. One form is the fallout vector data for use in prepara- tion of fallout area forecasts. Data are prepared for about 100 locations in the continental United States (except Alaska), and about 30 in Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and southern Canada. The locations are shown on the map (Figure 2) and are listed in area groups in Table l. The boundaries of group areas are indicated by heavy lines on the map. Under the iden- tifying designator “DF”1 the data are transmitted over the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Ser- vice “C” Teletypewriter Facility to most Weather Bu- reau oflices, FAA offices, and to other governmental and private subscribers. The data are also relayed to Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico. The State and local civil defense offices planning to make their own forecasts should arrange for the re- ceipt of DF messages that might pertain to their areas of jurisdiction. The nearest FAA or Weather Bureau office should be contacted to arrange for appropriate relay of DF messages, unless the data are already available over State emergency circuits. Wind Data for Fallout Forecasts (Summary Description) ° The data (DF) are based upon US. Weather Bureau observations made at 0000 and 1200 Greenwich time (00002 and 1200Z) . The observed data are processed by computer at Suitland, Maryland, into forecasts of the integrated effects of the wind layers from the 100 millibar (mb) level (about 53,000 ft.) to the earth’s surface, on idealized particles which would fall to the sur- face from that level in three hours; i.e., three-hour direction and distance vectors. ° The DF vectors describe the direction to the nearest 10 degrees clockwise from true north, and to the nearest 10-mile distance. A fallout forecast vector for a single location and time is described by four digits: the first two indicate direction of windflow in tens of degrees, and the last two indicate the three- hour distance in tens of miles. For example, the m the continental United States. except Alaska. and for southern Canada: ”DFAK" for Alaska: “DFHW” for Hawaii: and “DFCA” for Puerto Rico (Caribbean Area). four-digit block “1512” would mean that the direc- tion is 150° clockwise from true north (windflow toward SE), and the distance, 120 miles in three hours. For each data location, data are transmitted to sub- scribers about six hours after observation times (twice daily) in three forecasts, for 12, 18, and 24 hours after the observation. Each forecast will be‘used dur- ing the six-hour period centered on these times. (See Figure 3.) The symbolic form of the message is “iii ddss ddss and ddss”: iii—Identifier for location. dd—True direction toward which particles would fall, in tens of degrees. ss—Distance in tens of statute miles for three-hour fall from the 100 mb level. Time indicators: The first ddss group is for use over a 6-hour period centered on observation time plus 12 hours; the second, for observation time plus 18 hours; and the third, for observation time plus 24 hours; i.e., the time for which a forecast is to be used is indicated by the position of the four-digit group. The DF message format is illustrated in Figure 4-, in which the first line indicates that the data are DF for the United States, based on observations at 00002,2 on the first day of the month; the second line heads a group of locations in the Northeastern United States; the left-hand column identifies the locations; and the second, third, and fourth columns describe DF vectors for use 12, 18, and 24 hours, respectively, after 010000Z; i.e., at 011200Z, 011800Z, and 02000Z. Data are provided for about 100 locations in the continental United States (except Alaska), and about 30 in Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and Canada. (See Figure 2.) Data are provided in convenient plotting sequence for each of the six areas of the continental United States (except Alaska), and separately for the other areas. It is emphasized that the forecast times (observation time plus 12, 18, and 24 hours, with about 6 hours processing and reporting delay) provide for overlap of the forecasts from one observation time to the next. This is intentional, to provide forecasts into the early postattack period, when new meteorological data might not be available. As indicated in Figure 3, the third column data (observation time plus 24 hours) would be used only if new data were not received. 2Weather Bureau time notation for midnight. .wuflma aim. n—QIIN ESQ—h. 00—m— Ohmem w 24:56.: 0am . a .2 . 3.0 0 0.: 0 . . on... 9.... no 2.... .5 ( 0 >92 . . 3M: bum tan. x<.. . . , . J x o .|.J..U\..fip..v -l. x I .J 002. 2M2. >Im_ . o I- Q _ . o “m / . rhudmlamm .30 _m< 00: f. JPi . gum — J . A). l. as). . m