Volume 2: Country and Regional Reports

l*‘cbruzu‘y 24—28, 1997

Chinese Taipei

U' 5- DEPOSITORY

SEP 0 3 1998'

 

 

Workshop Publication Committee

Biliana Cicin-Sain
Robert K. Dixon
Charles N. Ehler

Joseph C.K. Huang
Bradford Johnson
Robert Knecht
Jhy—Ming Lu
Lynne Mersfelder
Nobuo Mimura
Kathryn L. Ries

Edited by Steve Morrison and Katie Ries, US. National Oceanic andAtmosp/JericAdministration

 

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International Workshop:
Planning for Climate Change Through Integrated Coastal Management

Volume 2: Country and Regional Reports

February 24-28, 1997
Chinese Taipei

Contributor:

The Asia Foundation
Chinese Taipei Industrial Technology Research Institute
Japan Environment Agency
The Netherlands National Institute for Coastal and Marine Management
Chinese Taipei Environmental Protection Administration
US. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
US. National Academy of Sciences
U.S. Country Studies Program

For further information on the workshop, or to obtain a copy of the full proceedings, please contact the
International Conference Secretariat at the following address:

Ms. Lynne Mersfelder

International Conference Secretariat

1305 East—West Highway, N/ EA

Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA

Fax: 301—713—4263; email: Lmersfelder@ocean.nos.noaa.gov

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Preface
Acknowledgments
Introduction

I. Country Reports

Argentina ........................................................................ 5
Bulgaria ......................................................................... 9
Egypt ........................................................................... 12
Estonia ......................................................................... 18
Fiji ............................................................................. 24
Indonesia ....................................................................... 27
Mozambique .................................................................... 33
Nigeria ........................................................................ 43
Oman .......................................................................... 48
The Philippines .................................................................. 51
Senegal ........................................................................ 58
Sri Lanka ....................................................................... 61
Suriname ....................................................................... 66
Thailand ........................................................................ 69
Tuvalu .......................................................................... 77

ll. Regional Reports

Small island Developing States of the Pacific ........................................ 84

South Pacific Regional Environment Programme .................................... 88

Sea Level Rise Impacts on Central America .................................... 90
Appendices

Appendix A: Workshop Agenda ................................................... 102

Appendix B: Workshop Participants ............................................... 109

Preface

 

ecent observational data and studies carried out by more than 2,500 scientists from around the world

have concluded that human activities have a discernible influence on climate change, and that the contin—
ued accumulation of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere may significantly affect natural systems.
Among the most alarming environmental issues that demand worldwide attention are the rise in sea level pro—
jected to result from global warming, and the ongoing deterioration of coastal ecosystems and resources.

The majority of climate change studies have been undertaken by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), which is co—sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations
Environment Program. These studies spurred more than 150 nations to sign and ratify the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) in 1992, which calls all nations (1) to conduct climate
change country studies, including assessments of the impacts of climate change on them and their vulnerability
to climate change; and (2) to develop national action plans for undertaking adaptive measures and mitigation
strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

This international workshop was a timely response to the call of the FCCC. It was convened at a time when
many developing countries and countries with economies in transition have completed or are conducting their
climate change country studies and are preparing their national action plans. More than 120 scientists from
twenty—nine countries participated in the workshop.

The goals of the workshop were to:

' Update workshop participants on the latest developments from the IPCC, including coastal findings,
vulnerability assessment methodologies, response options, and adaptive measures.

° Review through country study experiences, common problems with, management strategies for, and
approaches to adapting to climate change.

' Exchange ideas for integrating strategies for adapting to the effects of climate change with those for
managing other coastal problems and concerns—cg, coastal pollution and habitat protection—within
the framework of integrated coastal management (ICM), which is the IPCC’s recommended approach
to addressing current and long—term coastal management issues.

' Produce and adopt guidelines for incorporating principles and elements of ICM into national climate
change action plans.

The workshop participants discussed and adopted a set of practical ICM guidelines for policymakers and
coastal managers dealing with sustainable coastal area resource management and development. These guidelines,
presented in Volume I (Summary Report) Section III of the workshop proceedings, were created to help indus-
trialized countries, developing countries, and countries with economies in transition ensure that their national
climate change action plans fully consider coastal resources and marine ecosystems. This document contains the
country and regional presentations made at the workshop.

The information in this document does not necessarily reflect the official View of any government or inter—
governmental body.

— T/Je Works/90p Puélication Committee

Acknowledgements

 

We gratefully acknowledge the contributions of the many workshop participants who made informative
country presentations, expressed their concerns, and participated energetically and collegially in the group
discussions, which led to a set of practical guidelines. We also acknowledge the many world—renowned experts
and coastal management practitioners who shared their valuable experience on climate change studies and inte-

grated coastal management.

The contributions from the following organizations and individuals deserve special recognition, for without
them, the workshop would not have achieved the level of success that it did:

' The workshop hosts and local organizers, including the Industrial Technology Research
Institute, especially Dr. Ling—Yauan Chen; the Science and Technology Advisory Group, especially Dr.
Shih-Chien Yang; and the Environmental Protection Administration, especially Dr. Hsiung—Hsiung Tsai

and Mr. Hsiung—Wen Chen.

° Organizations that provided technical assistance and travel support for workshop participants, including
the Asia Foundation, especially Mr. Allen C. Choate; The Netherlands Institute for Coastal and Marine
Management, especially Mr. Luitzen Bijlsma; Japan Environmental Agency, especially Mr. Katsunori
Suzuki and Mr. Yoshihiro Natori; the Ibaraki University of Japan, especially Prof. Nobuo Mimura; the
US. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, especially Mr. Charles
N. Ehler of the Ocean Resources Conservation and Assessment Office, Ms. Kathryn L. Ries of the
External Affairs Office, and Mr. Curt Mason of the Coastal Services Center; and the US. Country
Studies Program, especially Dr. Robert Dixon and Dr. Joseph Huang.

Last, but far from least, the diligence and hard work of the Conference Secretariat, Ms. Lynne Mersfelder
(USA), Mr. Steve Morrison (USA), Dr. Jhy-Ming Lu (Chinese Taipei), and Dr. Chung Li-Ma (Chinese Taipei)
were particularly appreciated in coordinating and facilitating this important workshop.

Conference Co—Chairs,

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Dr. Ling—Yuan Chen
Vice President of Industrial &Technology
Research Institute
General Director of Energy 8c Resources Laboratory
Chinese Taipei

Dr. William A. Sprigg

Director, Board on Atmospheric Sciences 8c Climate
National Research Council

US. National Academy of Sciences

United States

Introduction

 

he world’s coastal areas and small islands are highly vulnerable to climate change. Low-lying delta and

barrier coasts and low—elevation reef islands and coral atolls are especially sensitive to rising sea level, as well
as to changes in rainfall, storm frequency, and intensity. Inundation, flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion
are only a few of the potential impacts of climate change (IPCC, 1992). Sea—level rise could have negative effects
on a number of sectors, including tourism, freshwater quantity and quality, fisheries and aquaculture, agriculture,
human settlements, financial services, and human health.

Adapting to sea—level rise and other effects of climate change will involve important trade—offs that weigh
environmental, economic, social, and cultural values. Effects will depend not only on the local patterns and
intensity of climate change, but also on the nature of the local coastal environment, on the human, ecological,
and physical responsiveness of the affected coastal system, and on actions in other sectors of coastal and national
economies. Given the long time frames involved in reducing the magnitude of global warming, it is vital that
steps be taken now to manage the impacts that almost certainly will occur in islands and low—lying coastal areas.

The recommended framework for coastal management under these dynamic climatic conditions is integrated
coastal management, or ICM (IPCC, 1994). However, the capacity for undertaking ICM is either weak or
nonexistent in many coastal nations and needs to be strengthened. This point is particularly important because
ICM has also been suggested as an appropriate framework to meet the commitments and obligations of other
recent international agreements and initiatives, including: (1) Chapter 17 of Agenda 21, adopted at the United
Nations Conference on Environment and Development in 1992 (UNCED); (2) the 1992 United Nations Con—
vention on Biological Diversity, which adopted the Jakarta Mandate on Coastal and Marine Biodiversity and
identified coastal area management as the national approach to meet the obligations of the convention; (3) the
1994 Global Conference on Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States (SIDS); (4) the 1995
Intergovernmental Conference on Land—Based Sources of Marine Pollution, which adopted the Washington
Declaration, including the Global Program of Action for the Protection of the Marine Environment from Land—
based Activities; and (5) the International Coral Reef Initiative (Cicin—Sain, Knecht, and Fisk, 1995).

ICM is a continuous, iterative, adaptive, and consensus—building process comprised of a set of related tasks,
all of which must be carried out to achieve a set of goals, including adapting to the effects of climate change
(Bower, Ehler, and Basta, 1994). The dimensions of ICM include:

' Integration of policies and programs across and among sectors of the economy—cg, economic develop

ment, transportation, recreation, and agriculture.

' Integration among agencies involved in coastal management at all levels of government, including both

vertical (national, subnational, and local) and horizontal (across the same level of government) integration.

' Integration between public— and private—sector management activities.

° Integration between management actions that affect the land and water environments of coastal areas,

and areas upstream and upwind of coastal areas.

' Integration among the disciplines of coastal management, including ecology, economics, engineering,

and political science.
During the week of February 24—28, 1997, nongovernmental organizations in Chinese Taipei and the United
States convened an international workshop entitled “Planning for Climate Change Through Integrated Coastal
Management." This document contains fifteen country and two regional presentations made at the workshop. It
is the companion document to Volume I which summarizes the workshop’s major findings. Volume 1: Summary

Introductionm 3

Report recaps discussions from eight expert panels, which focused largely on various aspects of ICM and their
elucidation in the guidelines under consideration by the workshop. It then summarizes a series of reports on
climate change and ICM presented by deltaic nations, island nations, nations with continental shorelines, and
one regional organization that are elaborated here in Volume II. The final section of this Summary Report is
devoted to the set of guidelines the participants developed for incorporating climate change issues into broader
ICM frameworks—an important next step in the implementation of the United Nations Framework Conven—
tion on Climate Change.

4 l Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

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l. Country Reports

Volume 2: Country Studies Report I 5

 

Country Reports

 

 

‘ ARGENTINA

PRELIMINARY VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
ON THE ARGENTINA COASTLINE

Gerardo ME. Perillo
Instituto Argentino de Oceanografia
Bahia Blanca, Argentina

GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF THE ARGENTINE COAST

Argentina is located on the southern tip of the Ameri—
can continent with over 5700 km of coastline facing the South
Atlantic Ocean (Fig.1). Bordering the coastline, there is a
large continental shelf varying from 150 km to over 800 km
wide, as it is limited by the 200 m isobath. The littoral starts
on the northern sector with the Rio de la Plata estuary. The
river, formed by the confluence of the Parana and Uruguay
rivers, is one of the widest in the world although very shallow.
At the head there is the Parana river delta, a low—lying area
with a progradation rate of over 40 m/yr into the Rio de la
Plata due to the high sediment load provided by the Parana

river.

The Argentine coast of the Rio de la Plata — the most
densely populated area of the country — is low and subject to
inundations due to storm surges induced by major storms
locally called “southeasters.” These surges may produce eleva-
tions on the river level up to 4.5 m. Sanborombon Bay is a
marsh-tidal flat area connected with the Salado river basin.
The basin that extends inland with very low relief is subject to
periodic inundations due to heavy precipitation. The impact of
even a minor sea level rise (SLR) on this area is at least two
fold: 1) the direct affect of SLR advancing over the flat area,
and 2) the increase of the base level for the discharge of the
Salado and other minor rivers and artificial channels. As a
result, elimination of the excess water will become more
difficult producing tremendous economic damages to one of
the richest agricultural zones of the country.

 

     
   
 
  

 

 

 

Figure 1: Argentina coast: tidal range distribution
location of major estuaries

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URUGUAY
200
“'/ m - 3"
— 40°:
— 45":
a so“:
MINInIIL
TIDAL RANGE
E MlCROTIDAL
MESOTIDAL
. .. 55°
MACROTIDAL .
| l I
70 W 65°W 80°W 55°w 50°W

6 I Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

The rest of the Buenos Aires province shoreline down to Bahia Blanca estuary is formed by sandy
beaches backed by coastal dunes of varying widths. Laguna Mar Chiquita is the only typical microtidal coastal
lagoon in Argentina. The coast between Mar Chiquita to Miramar (30 km south of Mar del Plata) is consti—
tuted by cliffs formed by Plio-Pleistocene semiconsolidated sediments with heights ranging from few meters
to 25 m. However, the cliffs border to the north and south lower Paleozoic quartzite outcroppings within Mar
del Plata city

The remnants of a late Pleistocene — early Holocene delta complex form the coast from the Bahia
Blanca Estuary (BBE) to Anegada Bay. The present day delta of the Colorado river now has a 60 km N—S
linear stretch of the coast between BBE and Bahia Anegada showing a clear example of coastal retreat. Both
BBE and Bahia Anegada are extensive tidal flats with sparse low marshes. Perillo (1989) has shown that the
area is in an strong erosional stage due to the lack of sediment input from the rivers and the shelf.

The Patagonian coast, south of the Negro River, is mostly bordered by cliffs composed of marine and
continental tertiary semiconsolidated sediments and wave—cut terraces. The cliffs vary in height from
10-15 m to 150 m. The general outline of the Patagonian coast presents a series of embayments and gulfs.
Although many beaches in this coast are formed by medium to coarse sands, the characteristic sediments of
these beaches are pebbles locally known as “rodados patagonicos.”

The Argentina coast presents 10 large estuaries (Fig.1) and another 20 of lesser importance. Although
each of them have quite different characteristics, most of the estuaries may be classified as coastal—plain ones.
Others, may be classified as rias since they have formed by drowning of river valleys on cliffy coasts or some
coastal lagoons (Perillo, 1995; Piccolo 8c Perillo, 1997). Relatively little work has been done on the geomor—
phology and dynamics of Argentine estuaries. The most studied estuaries are those that are economically
important, such as the Rio de la Plata, BBE, Quequen and Chubut.

Sea Level Variations and Coastal Dynamics

Fairbridge (1961) first proposed that post—Wisconsin sea level rise suffered a series of oscillations
above the present mean sea level. Isla (1989) has shown that at least one event and in many places two and up
to three occurrences of sea level higher than present have been documented within the last 7000 yrs for the
Southern Hemisphere. The Argentina coast has several places in which this situation is observed with values

as high as 7.5 m. Gomez and Perillo (1995) have developed a sea level curve for the BBE for the last 8000
years showing that sea level rates have varied from a 9 mm/yr rise to 1.4 mm/yr fall.

Present estimations of sea level variations using long—term tidal records were concentrated in only one
place of the Argentina coast. Lanfredi et al. (1988) have considered that the most reliable tidal gauge to make
such a calculation is one at Puerto Qiequen that has a 64 year record. They obtained a SLR of 1.6 mm/yr.
Piccolo et al. (1996) have further extended the Lanfredi et al. (1988) series resulting in a new estimation of
1.8 mm/yr.

Fig.1 shows the distribution of tidal ranges of the Argentine coast. It is microtidal up to Necochea,
becoming mesotidal in the open areas down to Deseado river estuary. In the northern Patagonian gulfs and
southward of Puerto Deseado, tidal ranges are macrotidal reaching maximum values of the order of 12 m in
San Sebastian Bay and Rio Gallegos.

There are very few observations of wave parameters on the Argentine coast. The best documented
areas are associated to harbour entrances (i.e., Mar del Plata, Quequen, Bahia Blanca, Rawson). Swells are
mostly related to the migration of cyclonic centers moving almost parallel to the coast, but beyond the conti—
nental shelf. As a result, most of the time the northern coast receives waves coming from the S and SE, while
in the middle and southern portions of the country are affected by progressively larger percentages of waves
from the E and NE. Swells have periods normally between 6 and 16 s and significant heights of the order of
1 m or less. However, locally generated waves have periods below 6 s and may have significant heights up to
5.5 m and maximum values on the order of 7 m.

Volume 2: Country Studies Report I 7

 

Littoral currents and longshore sediment transport produced by wave action gre strong all along the
coast. Estimated alongshore sediment transport ranges from 300,000 to 1,000,000 rn /yr (Schnack et al.,
1990). Following the orientation of thewave directions, the northern coast has littoral drift directed to the
north, whereas this direction is balanced in the middle latitudes and reversed in the southern portion of the
country.

In summary, considering only natural causes, the coast of Argentina is in a net erosional stage, espe—
cially from Punta Medanos to the south. The main reason for this condition may be attributed to the low river
input of sediments. In recent years this condition has worsened because of reduced precipitation in the
mountains and the construction of several dams across Patagonian rivers. Only the Rio de la Plata keeps
providing a high sediment load; although most of the time the river plume moves northward (along the
Uruguay shelf) due to the Coriolis effect.

Socio—economic Characteristics

The 1991 census estimated that the total population of Argentina is 32,300,000 with 40% concen—
trated within 50 km of the coastline. The littoral districts of the Buenos Aires and Rio Negro provinces
contain almost 21% of the total population. The maximu population density is in Buenos Aires city and the
surrounding counties including over 16% (41 people/km ) out of that 21% covering only 100 km of the coast.
The population density along the country’s littoral is rapidly reduced southward except for specific urban
locations as Mar del Plata, Necochea, Bahia Blanca and Comodoro Rivadavia. On the Patagonian coast there
are stretches of 200 km without any urban development.

The main economic activities along the coast rely heavily on agricultural and cattle products. Other
economic activities are normally secondary although some industrial centers are being developed and becom—
ing a major input for the districts. The largest marine harbours of the country are Buenos Aires harbour
(manages about 60% of national exports and 92% of the imports), Bahia Blanca, Quequen, Mar del Plata,
Deseado and Madryn are mostly associated with grain exports, although in some of them oil and oil deriva—
tives and fishing exports are becoming important.

Institutional and Legal Structures

The use and management of the country’s littoral and associated waters are considered by the Consti-
tution and Civil Legislation Code. Because of the federal system, each province and county has its own
particular legislation and codes regarding the shoreline. In most cases, the legislation differentiates between
public and private use of the coast. Nevertheless, a general survey of the existing legislation shows that most of
the provincial laws and county decrees are either superimposed on national laws or, as in many cases, contra—
dictory. A major issue is sand mining. Many counties forbid this activity whereas neighbouring counties allow
it at different rates. As a consequence, those counties that seek some ways of preserving this natural resource
become affected by others whose actions are considerably reducing littoral sediment transport.

CONCLUSIONS

Although Argentina is a country with one of the most extensive coastlines, its socio-economic devel—
opment is restricted only to the northern 1500 km. South of Bahia Blanca, most of the coast is deserted. This
is probably the major factor because application of coastal management legislation is practically negligible.
SLR will largely affect the low—lying coast of the Rio de la Plata and Samborombon Bay plus the tidal flats of
BBB and Anegada Bay. Most coastal resort towns will suffer some effect but it will be minimal.

8 l Volume 2: Country Studies Report

REFERENCES

Fairbridge, R.W., 1961. Eustatic Changes in Sea Level. In: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth. Pergamon
Press, London, vol. 4:99—185.

Gomez, EA. 8:. Perillo, G.M.E., 1995. Sediment Outcrops Underneath Shoreface—Connected Sand Ridges,
Outer Bahia Blanca Estuary, Argentina. Qiaternary of South America and Antartica Peninsula 9:27—
42

Isla, Fl, 1989. Holocene Sea-Level Fluctuations in the Southern Hemisphere. Qlaternary Sc. Rev., 8:359-
368.

Lanfredi, N.W., D’Onofrio, E.E. 8cMazio, C.A., 1988. Variations of the Mean Sea Level in the Southwest
Atlantic Ocean. Cont. Shelf Res. 8:1211—1220.

Perillo, G.M.E., 1989. El Estuario de Bahia Blanca: Definicion y Posible Origen. B01. Centro Naval 107:333—
344.

Perillo, G.M.E., 1995. Definition and Geomorphologic Classifications of Estuaries. En: Perillo, G.M.E. (ed):
Geomorphology and Sedimentology of Estuaries, Development in Sedimentology Vol. 53, Elsevier
Science BV, Amsterdam, 17-47

Piccolo, M.C., Perillo, G.M.E. &Marcos, A.O., 1996. Analisis de las Mareas en Puerto Qiequén, Argentina.
I]ornadas Argentinas de Geografi’a Fisica, Bahia Blanca (abstract).

Piccolo, M.C. 8c Perillo, G.M.E., 1997. Geomorfologia e Hidrografia de los Estuarios de la Republica
Argentina. In: Boschi, E. (Ed): El Mar Argentino y sus Recursos Pesqueros, INIDEP, Mar del Plata,

in press.

Schnack, E.J., Fasano,J.L., Lanfredi, N.W. 8c Pousa,J.L. 1990, Impacts of Sea Level Rise on the Argentine
Coast. In: Changing Climate and the Coast. IPCC report 21363-384. UNEP-WMO—USACE—EPA-
NOAA.

Volume 2: Country Studies Report I 9

 

 

THE CHANGES OF CLIMATE, AND THE BULGARIAN PROGRAMME
FOR INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT OF THE BLACK-SEA COASTAL ZONE

Dr. Yordan Marinski Prof. Ivan Raev
Forest Research Institute Forest Research Institute
Sofia, Bulgaria Sofia, Bulgaria

The Black-Sea Coastal Zone is of great importance for Bulgaria. It is one of the most valuable natural resources
of this country, so the wish of preserving it for future generations is only natural. The Black—Sea Coastal Zone,
because of its geographical position, is a potential source for strengthening and developing the economic might
of our country including transportation, natural and recreational resources, built infrastructure, and developed
industry sectors. This part of the country is populated by about 750,000 people which amounts to about 1/10 of
the whole population.

The total length of the coast is 384 km. In respect to submarine topography and geomorphology, processes such
as accumulation and erosion occur within the coastal zone. The beach strips and dunes, whose total length
amounts to about 25% of the coast line, are historically characteristic of accumulation processes. However, today
the beaches’ total area reveals a clear diminishing trend, and the erosion processes are increasing.

The coastal zone is very vulnerable. Methodical investigations for assessing this vulnerability have not been
included in the National Climate Change Action Plan, nor have they been carried out. For this reason, the IPCC
7-step international general methodology has not been used. However, there are enough reasons for reporting
important changes of the climate in the coastal zone, without which an effective and efficient Programme for
Integrated Management of the Coastal Zone cannot be developed. Some of these changes are listed below:

1) Bulgaria is located on the Balkan Peninsula. This peninsula is subsiding resulting in a sea-level rise of 1 mm
per annum. This subsistence causes a loss of coast line of about 30 cm per annum.

2) There are also periodical and seasonal alterations of the water levels. In the autumn and winter, when the sea is
roughest, the water levels rise. At certain places, these alterations reach 20-30 cm, which in turn results in a
replacement of the wave—breaking zone closer to the coast. We know nothing about carrying out special monitor—
ing of the movement of the tidal zone on the whole coast line. These alternations strongly affect also the geomet—
ric parameters of the beach strips, which is of particular interest, especially where the coastal zone is heavily
urbanized.

3) Some of the most dangerous increases of sea-level occur during storm surge episodes. There are records of the
sea—level increasing 2 m at certain places on the coast line. In such cases, the effects of even small waves can be
devastating. Such phenomena (of a rise of the water level together with a development of rough sea) are of
particular interest to science, and this is explicable. The results of them are hardly assessable material losses
(losses of territories and arable farm lands, damages to engineering facilities, roads, buildings, telecommunication
facilities etc.).

10 I Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

4) There is a reason to relate the initiation and activation of land—sliding processes to the rise of the water
levels and to the enhanced rates of erosion which have resulted in a new geomorphology. How these processes
are initiated, hOW they could be effectively controlled, and how they can be prognosticated in future are the
questions which have not been given precise answers to. Yet they are very important because of tragic conse—
quences (some landslides have been called “killers”, as people’s lives have been lost).

The consequences from sea—level rise strongly affect the means and possibilities for integrated management of
the coastal zone. The special literature surveyed reports also about an increase of the seismic activity in the
coastal stations at times of water rise. An additional investigation of the genesis of the rise and alternation of
the water level in this coastal zone might provide important quantitative and qualitative results. Such research
is lacking generally and, at the present stage, we can not discuss a particular, science—based action strategy for
planning integrated management of the coastal zone on the basis of expected changes of climate.

The vulnerability of the coast increases also by the technological intervention with the utilisation of the
coastal zone. In fact, there is a General Plan of Protecting the Black—Sea Coast which should provide the
strategy and methods of coastal protection. If we judge by some ideas applied into it, and by its consequences,
this strategy has not proved its fallibility and scientific basis. Here is an example:

An inverted-L— (A—) or T—shaped groin is built for protecting a certain erosion plot, while it is known in
advance that at this sandy coast with a low submarine—slope grade there is a sediment—flow deficit. Besides,
these groins are given harbour functions in advance, which means that, instead of sustaining the above—water
slope as it has done in the past, the sand accumulated behind the groin is now dragged for providing the draft
depth necessary for the sailing vessels. In this way, even a sand—pit to provide building material is formed. This
“comprehensiveness” of the protective facility does not reveal professionalism, and the consequence is activa—
tion of erosion and land—sliding processes.

There are other examples as well that indicate the General Plan cannot be used as a basis or an auxiliary
means of the integrated management of the coastal zone.

Under these circumstances the development of the Bulgarian Programme for Integrated Management of the
Coastal Zone is extremely difficult. Work on the programme began as early as 1993 with financial support
from the World Bank. A Bill for the Black—Sea Coast of the Republic of Bulgaria was initiated in May 1995,

whose main aims are:

— to limit the ecological conflicts and disturbed environment in large regions of the coastal zone;

— to regulate the conditions for the reasonable utilisation, conservation and reproduction of marine resources;

— to point out and give status to all the territories which require special protection, while ceasing the illegal
construction on sand dunes and beaches;

- to stop the uncontrolled coming into possession, utilisation and development of new territories and water
areas

Almost two years has passed since this bill was initiated, but it has not been passed through the National
Assembly (the legislative body of the Republic of Bulgaria) yet. In the same time, the regional plans of the
coastal communities have been made and publicly discussed, and their adoption by the Supreme Council of
Experts at the Ministry of Regional Development and Construction is forthcoming. However, this adoption
must be either postponed, thus breaking the terms given by the World Bank, until the legal order is adopted.
Or the plans must be adopted without a legal order, since the National Assembly is dissolved and it is not
known when it will start working again and when this bill will become an enacted law. In the same time, the
lack of an action strategy based on science, relating climate change to the coastal protection methods and to

Volume 2: Country Studies Report I 11

methods of technological intervention, and combined with the lack of legal order, has resulted in poor coordi—
nation and organisation of the development of this Programme. Requirements for the Programme include:

1. Funding — from abroad (the World Bank) and from home sources;
2. Participating institutions - the Ministry of Regional Development and Construction, the Ministry
of Environment, and the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences;

3. Training courses, and workshops;
4. Coast—protection strategy, geographic—information system, data base about the alternation of the

sea-water level, the movement of the tidal zone, the winds and rough sea.

12 W Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

 

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE
COASTAL ZONE OF THE NILE DELTA, EGYPT,
TO THE IMPACTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE

M.El—Raey
University of Alexandria
Alexandria, Egypt

Abstract

A quantitative vulnerability assessment of the cities of Alexandria, Rosetta and Port—Said, Egypt, to the
impact of sea level rise, is carried out, using remote sensing and GIS techniques and ground based surveys.

Results indicate that a 0.5 m sea level rise would cause: Immigration of more than 2.0 million people, loss of
more than 214 thousand jobs and a value loss of more than $40.0 billion, mainly in the Alexandria Governor—
ate. Adaptation and mitigation measures are under investigation.

Introduction

The coastal zone of Egypt is most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, not only because of
the impact of sea level rise, but also because of the impacts on water resources, agricultural resources, tourism
and human settlements. The shoreline of Egypt extends for more than 3500 km along the Mediterranean Sea
and the Red Sea. It includes a large portion of the most fertile low land of the River Nile delta. In addition,
the coastal zone hosts a large number of highly populated cities, such as Alexandria, Port Said, Rosetta and
Damietta. These cities also encompass a large portion of the Egyptian industrial and economic sectors. As a
result, the coastal zone suffers from a number of important problems including population pressure, interfer—
ence of land use, pollution, waterlogging, and lack of institutional capabilities for integrated management.

The objective of this work is to present the results of quantitative assessment of the vulnerability of
the most important cities of Egypt on the Mediterranean Sea; namely Alexandria, Rosetta and Port-Said.
Geographic information systems, remote sensing and modeling techniques together with ground based
surveys, were used to assess potential impacts on each sector and to evaluate socioeconomic losses. The
stepwise vulnerability assessment procedure, suggested by IPCC, has been followed to identify and quantify
potential risks of each environmental sector for each district of these cities. A summary of the main results
will be presented below.

Alexandria City:

Alexandria city is the second largest city in Egypt. It hosts the largest harbor in the country and about
40% of the Egyptian industrial activities. It has a population of about 4.0 million, and is considered the first
summer resort. During summer, the city receives over a million tourists.

A multi—band LANDSAT image (TM, Sept.1995) of the city is classified to identify and map land
use classes. A geographic information system was built (El—Raey et al, 1995, El—Raey et al, 1997) in ARC/
INFO environment and included layers of:

Volume 2: Country Studies Report W 13

 

City district boundaries

Topographic maps

Land use classes

Population and employment of each district
Archaeological sites

Tab1e(1): Percentage areas, populations, and land use loss for each elevation contour of the city of Alexandria

 

 

Sector/Elevation(m) 0.0 SLR=0.25 SLR=0.5 SLR=1.0
Population 45 60 67 76
Beaches 1.3 1 1 47.8 64
Residential 26.2 27.5 39.3 52
Industrial. 53.9 56.1 65.9 72.2
Services 45.1 55.2 75.9 82.2
Tourism. 28 31 49 62
Restricted area 20 21 25 27
Urban 38 44 56 67
Vegetation 55 59 63 75
Wetland 47 49 5 8 98
Bare soil 15 24 29 31

 

A scenario of 0.5 m and 1.0 m sea level rise over the next century is assumed, taking land subsidence
(2.5mm/y) into consideration. Percentage population and land use areas at risk for each scenario are identified
and quantified. Table (1) shows results of the risk of inundation due to each scenario “if no action is taken.”
These results are used to assess potential loss of employment for each sector.

Analysis of the results indicate that, if no action is taken, an area of about 30% of the city will be lost
due to inundation, almost 2 million people will have to abandon their homeland; 195,000 jobs will be lost and
an economic loss of over $35 .0 Billion, are expected over the next century. The most severely impacted sectors
are industry, tourism and agriculture, respectively. Employment analysis, shown in Table (2), indicates the
impact on employment. A detailed assessment of the impact on each district of the city has also been carried
out.

Table (2): Population expected to be displaced and loss of employment in each sector due to SLR scenarios
in Alexandria Governorate.

 

 

 

 

 

Year/Sector 2010 2025 2050
SLR=18 cm SLR=30 cm SLR=50 cm

Area loss (kmz) 114 190 317

Population displaced 252 545 1,512

x 1000

Loss of employment

a-Agriculture 1,370 3,205 8,812

b—Tourism 5,737 12,323 33,919

c—Industry 24,400 54,936 151,200

Total loss of 32,507 70,465 195,443

 

 

 

 

 

employment

 

14 fl Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

It is suggested that periodic beach nourishment is the cheapest alternative available, against direct
inundation. However, the impact of salt water intrusion has to be further investigated and mitigated.

Rosetta City

Rosetta city is a well known Pharaonic and Islamic site located near the intersection of the Rosetta
branch of the River Nile with the Mediterranean, east of Alexandria. Due to excessive erosional rates and salt
water intrusion near the Rosetta promontory, the area surrounding the city is well known for its water logging
and water bogging problems, and their impacts on natural resources.

In order to assess quantitatively the possible impacts of sea level rise, a GIS of the city and surround-

ing area was built, (El—Raey et al., 1996). The GIS includes layers of:

1 Political boundaries

2. Topographic maps

3. Land use (Urban, historic, etc.) .
4

Socio—economic maps

Detailed ground surveys were carried out to update and verify available maps. The possible impact
was evaluated based on land use losses for every 20 cm of sea level rise (SLR). Table (3) presents impacts on
each sector. Results were extended to estimate employment losses and economic losses for 0.5 m and 1.0 m
SLR scenarios,Table (4). Estimates (El—Raey et al, 1996) showed that about 1/ 3 of the employment power in
the city will be affected and a loss of about SHE 2.9 billion is expected, over the next century.

Table 3. Expected economic loss in land cover of Rosetta, for 0.5 m sea level rise (1995 —1996 prices).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lost area in Price/So. Total estimated
Land Cover meter in cost in US.$
m2 US $ (Millions)
Coast bare land 3,581,740 200 716
Marine bushes 4,504,750 150 675
Palm Cultivation 5,790,260 200 1,158
Bare land 27,508 250 7
Urban clusters 1,251,204 300 375
T O T A L 15,155,462 --------- 2,931

 

 

 

 

 

 

The government has built a massive sea wall near the tip of the Rosetta promontory, as a protective
measure against erosional problems. However, recent surveys indicate that this massive hard structure is
seriously challenged by coastal erosion. Plans for development of the area should seriously consider GlS
suitability analysis. Beach nourishment may be a possible solution.

Volume 2: Country Studies Report W 15

 

Table 4. Expected loss in employment sector resulting from a 0.5 m sea level rise at Rosetta. _

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sectors of Economic Activities £233 Population Expected Loss
Agriculture and fishing 18.5 4633
Conversion industries 4.5 502
Munrcrpal utilities (Electr1c1ty, gas .139 78
and water supplies)

Construction and buildings 1.355 433
Commercial 2.877 1640
Transportation 2.1 9 l 1248
Community services 6.275 3576

35.936 12,11

T O T A L (33.7%ofall

employment)

 

 

 

 

 

Port-Said Cig

Port-Said city is located on the Damietta branch of the river Nile, at the Mediterranean sea entrance
of the Suez Canal. It is the second largest tourist and trade center of Egypt on the Mediterranean. Lake
Manzala, the largest of Nile delta lagoons, is located to the west of the city. The Mediterranean coast of the
city hosts the most important economic and tourist areas of the city.

In order to assess possible impact of SLR, a GIS was built based on land use classification of a multi-
band LANDSAT image (TM, 1995) of the city, district boundaries, and socioeconomic data, as well as
ground surveys, (El—Raey et al 1997b). This area suffers from a relatively high rate of local land subsidence
(4.5mm/year). Added to the (IPCC, 1995) expected rate of sea level rise (15 cm to 95 cm over the next
century), a scenario of SLR of 0.5m, 0.75 m and 1.25 m was adopted for the next century for this area.

The retreat distance along the shore, is estimated from Bruun’s rule for each scenario, based on
coastal profile results of Frihy 1992, and corresponding areas, overlaid on various land use and socioeconomic
layers in the GIS. Vulnerable sectors are estimated as percentages. The associated socioeconomic impact for
each district is estimated. These are tabulated in Table (5).

16 l Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

Table 5. Land use areas (ka), population displaced and employment losses due to SLR 0.50 m in various
districts of Port—Said Governorate (after El—Raey et al,1997b).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Per— Value
El El E1 Port loss
District Shark E1 Arab Monakh Dwahy Fouad Total :;:age Million
$

Beach 0.426 0.377 7.419 - 13.039 21.26 1.6 2,126
Urban 0.034 0.044 0.339 - 0.046 0.46 7.8 48.0
Industry 0.015 0.002 0.018 - 0.016 0.05 12.5 5.0
Agriculture 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.00 0.0 0.0
Aqua-culture 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.024 0.024 0.12 2.4
Transport

10.0 7.0 3.0 - 3.0 23.0 11.7 4.6
network (km)
POPUIauon 3968 16699 6503 — 1021 28191 5.3 —
(persons)
Employment —

. 953 4000 1558 - 248 6759 5.3

()obs)

 

Results indicate that the city is highly vulnerable to the impact of SLR. The most severely impacted
sectors are expected to be the industrial, transportation and urban sectors, respectively. The agricultural area is
not affected, because it exists only in El—Dwahy district which is not affected by sea level rise. A loss of
employment of 6,759 jobs (5.3%), is expected due to a SLR of 50 cm.

Conclusion

Application of the seven stage vulnerability assessment methodology using GIS, remote sensing and
modeling techniques, as well as ground surveys, has enabled quantitative assessment of the impacts of SLR on
each sector and of each district of the most important cities of Egypt on the Mediterranean coast. Results
indicate high vulnerability and severe economic losses, particularly to the city of Alexandria. Immigration of
over 2.0 million people, losses of over $40.0 Billion, and loss of 214,000 jobs, are expected over the next
century. The technique has also enabled identification of most vulnerable and least vulnerable sectors, in each
district, for future planning. The low level of awareness among inhabitants is a serious problem. Work is
underway to study options for adaptation, effectiveness and costs of each option.

Acknowledgment

This work has been supported by US Country Study Program—Phase 11, through the Egyptian
Environmental Affairs Agency (EEAA).

Volume 2: Country Studies Report m 17

 

References:

Broadus,J.; Millima,J.; Edwards, S.; Aubrey,D. and Gable,E;1986; Rising Sea Level and Damming of Rivers:
Possible Effects in Egypt and Bangladesh; In Effect of Changes of Stratospheric Ozone and Global
Climate (J.Titus Edt), EPA.

Bruun, P., 1962. Sea level rise as a cause of shore erosion. Proceedings of the American Society of Civil
Engineers,J. Water. Harbors Div., 88:117—130.

Delft Hydraulics, and Resource Analysis 1992 . Vulnerability Assessment to Accelerated Sea Level Rise, Case
Study Egypt. Final Report October, 1992. Prepared for Commission of European Communities in
cooperation with the Coastal Research Institute, Alexandria.

El Raey, M., 1990. Responses to the Impacts of Greenhouse—Induced Sea Level Rise on Egypt. In :TITUS, J.
G. (ed), Changing Climate and the Coast, Washington D.C., U. S. Environmental Protection
Agency, 2:225—233.

El Raey, M., Nasr, S., Frihy, O., Desouki, S. and Dewidar, Kh., 1995. Potential Impacts of Accelerated
Sea—Level Rise on Alexandria Governorate, Egypt. J. Coastal Research, 14:190—204.

El Raey, M., Fouda, Y. and Nasr, S., 1996. GIS Assessment of the Vulnerability of the Rosetta Area, Egypt to
Impacts of Sea Rise;J. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment (In print).

El Raey, M., Ahmed, S. and Korany, E., 1997a. Remote Sensing and GIS for Vulnerability Assessment of the
Impact of Sea Level Rise over Alexandria City and Vicinity, Egypt. Int. J. Remote Sensing
(Submitted).

El Raey, M., Frihy, O. Nasr, S., and Dewidar, Kh., 1997b; Vulnerability Assessment of Sea Level Rise Over
Port-Said Governorate, Egypt. (submitted,1997)

El Sayed, M.Kh., 1988. Sea Level Rise in Alexandria During the Late Holocene: Archaeological Evidences.
Rapp. Comm. Int. Mer. Medic, 31 pp.

Frihy, O. E., 1992. Beach Response to SeaLevel Rise Along the Nile Delta Coast of Egypt. Journal of the
International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics and the American Geophysical Union, 11:81—85.

Sestini, G., 1989. The Implications of Climate Changes for the Nile Delta. Report WG 2/14. Nairobi, Kenya:
UNEP/OCA.

Strzepek K.M.; S.C. Onyeji; M. Saleh and D.N. Yates; An Assessment of Integrated Climate Change
Impacts on Egypt; In: As Climate Changes; Strzepek and Smith Editors; Cambridge University
Press, 1995.

18 I Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

 

SEA—LEVEL RISE IMPACT ON THE
ENVIRONMENT AND SOCIAL LIFE OF ESTONIA

Are Kont

Institute of Ecology
Tallinn, Estonia

Introduction

Estonia is a seaside country, entirely within the drainage area of the Baltic Sea. Due to its relatively long
coastline (3,794 km in total while the territory itself is only 45,216 ka) and predominant low—lying coastal areas
(NW part of the East—European Plain), accelerated sea level rise concurrent to global climate change may strongly
affect the territory of Estonia. On the other hand, location on the southern slope of the Baltic Shield which is
undergoing isostatic land uplift (2.8 mm/y on the north—western coast and 1.0 mm/y in the south—west (Vallner
et al., 1988) potentially reduces the effect of sea level rise.

Although small in area, Estonia is rich in different geomorphic types of coasts and shores. The contem—
porary coast of the country is shoaly, and it can be divided into low and bluff shores. According to the tilt of the
primary relief, geological character of initial rocks, and prevailing shore processes, eight various shore types have
been distinguished by Orviku (1992) and Raukas et al. (1994).These are: 1) cliffed shore; 2) scarp shore; 3) rocky
shore; 4) till shore; 5) gravel shore; 6) sandy shore; 7) silty shore; and 8) artificial shore.

Different shore types are used by a human beings in different ways. Coastal rural settlements in Estonia
are very old. Part of them were founded over 5,000 years ago. First sheds were probably set up near the coastline.
Resulting from isostatic uplift of the earth’s crust, most of seaside Villages are located at a distance from today’s
coastline. Thus, the settlements in coastal areas of Estonia, except the harbors and some certain low—lying dis-
tricts of the coastal cities are not in direct danger in the case of moderate sea level rise.

Since Estonia is relatively rich in various coastal ecosystems such as reed beds, many different types of
meadows including wooded meadows, dunes, cliffs, which are often valuable nesting sites for birds, and usually
contain rare plant species and plant communities, much attention must be given to their vulnerability and pro-
tection strategies.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate change and sea—level rise on natural systems
as well as on human activities in the coastal areas of Estonia. For that purpose, the ecosystems most vulnerable to
sea level rise and human settlements were selected to assess the magnitude and quality of changes, resulting from
the above— mentioned events. This paper contains the inventory of potential losses and the values at risk, as well
as some possible adaptation options and protection strategies.

Study Areas

Five case study areas containing all the listed shore types have been selected for sea level rise vulnerabil—
ity and adaptation assessment.

Volume 2: Country Studies Report I 19

 

Hiiumaa (1,023 kmz) is the second biggest island of the West Estonian Archipelago located in its north—
ern part, and is surrounded by nearly 200 islets. It is a low—lying island; most of the land is between 1 m and
10 m above sea level. Because of its insular position, small area, and low population (11,817 inhabitants 01.01.95),
the island has no particular economic significance. The primary fields of human activity are agriculture, fisheries,
forestry, and tourism.

The Parnu—lkla study area is located in south—western Estonia on the western coast of the Gulf of Riga
including two small populated isles — Kihnu (16,4 km2) and Manilaid (1,9 krnz). Most of the area is made up of
sandy beaches with an extensive ridge of coastal formations covered by foredunes and dunes. This is one of the
most popular recreation areas in the country, with famous health resorts in Parnu and numerous motels between
Rannametsa and Ikla.

The Matsalu Bay study area embraces the most characteristic shore types of the West Estonian Plain.
The central part of the study area surrounding the Matsalu Bay is made up of very low—lying varved clay plain
with silty shores covered by reed beds, coastal and flood plain meadows. It is one of the most important wetlands
of Estonia, being a part of the Matsalu Nature Reserve. Haapsalu city in the northern part of the study area is
famous for curative mud and health resorts.

The Tallinn study area represents our capital city which is the largest city and main harbor of Estonia.

The Narva—Iéesuu-Kasmu study area is located in the north—eastern part of Estonia on the southern
coast of the Gulf of Finland. Most of the area is made up of the Baltic Glint, a high (up to 56 m above sea level)
limestone cliff which separates the North Estonian Coastal Plain from the Harju—Viru Limestone Plateau. In
the places of the glint headlands, cliff shore type is predominant. In the areas where the coastal plain is wider,
abraded till shores with boulders and sandy shores with coastal ridges and dunes are typical.

Sea Level Rise Methodology

Detailed measurements using large—scale (1:25 ,000) topographic maps and calculations according to the
Bruun Rule (Bruun, 1962) were made along the coastline at 200 m intervals. Based on measurements, calcula—
tions, and field observations, new coastline positions were drawn on the topographic maps. Field observations
were used to compare possible coastline changes obtained by the Bruun Rule to existing situations, and to make
corrections where necessary. Two different coastline positions were drawn, depending on either normal weather
conditions or potential storm surges. Both zones were subjected to inventories of land loss and of temporary
damages.

The data on water—level fluctuations and storm surges were obtained from four meteorological and sea
level observation stations on the island of Hiiumaa, from two Parnu—Ikla stations, from three Matsalu Bay
stations, from one Tallinn station, and from three Narva—Joesuu—Kasmu study area stations. The data obtained
from these stations go back to the second half of the 18005. Sea level fluctuations caused by tides in the Baltic Sea
do not need to be taken into consideration in calculating the possible coastline recession.

Finally, all the potentially lost values of inundation and storm surge zones were calculated proceeding
from average present prices in Estonian Kroons (EEK). Three different types of losses were accounted in mon—
etary values: (1) cost of submerged and temporarily damaged land; (2) cost of existing properties in these zones
today; and (3) profit, theoretically missed from the damaged meadows and forests. The overall price of poten—
tially lost values for the whole territory of Estonia was calculated multiplying the prices of study areas by four
(the coastline length of the study areas provides 25% of the total coastline length of Estonia), and adding the
prices of the coastal cities. Preliminary results of the assessment of Estonia’s vulnerability to 1.0 — m sea level rise
in 2075 were obtained. A 0.3 — m scenario would not have a noticeable effect because of the isostatic land uplift.

20 m Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

Results and Discussion
Vulnerability Assessment

In Hiiumaa, the highest sea levels have been measured at the stations most exposed to waves and storm
surges, reaching 1.53 m above the Kronstadt 0 (local benchmark for the eastern part of the Baltic Sea). At the
same time sea level fluctuations are more considerable on the eastern and southern coasts of the island, probably
due to the shoals. Although a slow uplift of the earth’s crust is occurring on Hiiumaa today (Vallner et al., 1988),
there has been erosion of sandy beaches in recent decades, and in some places the sea is advancing again (Orviku,

1987).

Since 1954, Hiiumaa has been subject to at least eight (in 1954, 1967, 1969, 1971, 1975, 1983, 1986,
1990) extremely strong storms that, according to statistics, could occur only once in 100 years. In autumn and
winter, the westerly and southwesterly storm winds raise the sea level up to 2.0 m above its summer level. As
there is little evidence of a rising sea level in Estonia over this period, beach erosion appears to be largely due to
the recent increased storminess in the eastern Baltic Sea.

A 1.0 — m sea level rise would inundate 38 km2 of the coastal area of Hiiumaa. Additionally, 155 low—
lying islets off the coast of Hiiumaa would disappear, and 43 new islets would be created by separation from
current headlands. A number of valuable coastal ecosystems, plant communities, and rare plant species would be
destroyed (Kont et.al., 1996). They are located within the limits of the West Estonian Biosphere Reserve, which
is a valuable breeding ground for birds.

The very unusual ecosystems of numerous lagoons and calcareous meadows rich in orchids on the north-
western coast of Hiiumaa would disappear. The same would happen to the spawning grounds for trout and
lavarets. Because the villages on the island are usually situated at a distance from the coastline, only about twenty
dwellings would be in direct danger.

For the Parnu—Ikla study area, coastal measurements and calculations indicate that the areas most vul—
nerable to sea level rise are located in the northern part, where silt shores are predominant, but also on the
densely populated Isle of Kihnu. During the most recent strong storms, the waves have reached many dwellings
at 300 m inland. Moreover, where ridges of coastal formations are interrupted by brook valleys or draines, low-
lying meadows beyond the ridges and dunes are vulnerable to being inundated, and when the sea is high, dunes
are being eroded.

A 1. O— m sea level rise would inundate 22 2 ka of coastal area. Almost 2.5 km2 of the territory of
Parnu, the largest city in this region, and 3. 8 km2 of the Isle of Kihnu are located 1n the zone of potential
inundation. The potential reduction of the effects of sea level rise by 1sostatic land uplift here (about 1 0 mm/
year) is less than on Hiiumaa. That is why the potential land loss is relatively much greater than that on Hiiumaa
(the coastline is only 150 km long compared to that of 326 km on Hiiumaa). It is obvious that any increase in sea
level will increase the height and landward penetration of surges. In that respect, Parnu and Kihnu are at particu-
lar risk. The primary problems here are the socio—economic impacts and particularly, the protection of recre—
ational areas.

The Matsalu Bay study area is the most vulnerable to sea level rise in Estonia. Its central part, embracing
the Kasari flood plain and the Matsalu reed bed, 15 particularly low and flat, being 1— 2 m above sea level. A
1. 0 m sea level rise would inundate 76. 6 km2 of the territory including the whole reed bed and most of the
flooded meadows. The coastline recession here 13 the longest (6. 4 km) 1n Estonia Both reed beds and flooded
meadows are very dynamic plant communities having a number of successional transitions between different site
types depending on hydrological regime and climatic fluctuations. Flooded meadows of the Kasari River are

Volume 2: Country Studies Report is 21

 

remarkable on the all—European size because of their extensive massif, worth preserving. The Matsalu reed bed
(about 3,000 ha) is one of the biggest and most important breeding ground for birds in North Europe. Sea level
rise would restore approximately the same coastline position as it was in the 17005. Consequently, all plant
communities would relocate inland. Unlike the situation in the 17005, there are now arable lands, secondary
species poor forests, and cultivated grasslands, which prohibit further shifts of natural and semi—natural commu—
nities. The lack of suitable species pool in new sites, and unfavourable new conditions for migrating grassland
species, will probably result in a considerable decrease in species richness.

 

Although, one third of the coastline of Tallinn is protected by dikes already, the possible damages there
would be the greatest as compared to the other four study areas. The most vulnerable is the plane and non—
protected north-western part of the city. Economically, the losses in the storm surge zone are quite substantial.
According to the calculations, in today’s situation, about 160 dwellings and 180 industrial buildings near the
shoreline would be affected by storm surges.

The Narva—Ioesuu—Kasmu study area is very diverse in morphology, geological structure, and shore
types. It is extremely narrow (0—10 m) between straight and compact sections of the Baltic Glint and the sea.
Most of the cliff shores here would not be much affected by sea level rise. In many places, the straight and
compact limestone cliff is interrupted by the glint bays. The areas where the glint bays are facing peninsulas
stretching far into the sea, the coastal plain may widen up to 15—20 km, for instance, within the limits of the
Lahemaa National Park. Such extensions of the coastal plain are more populated and more vulnerable to sea level
use.

The easternmost part of the study area between Narva—Joesuu and Merikiila is one of the areas most
suitable for recreation in Estonia. But the excellent sandy beaches here have suffered from strong storms in
recent decades. Most probably, one of the reasons for severe damage is that the runoff of the Narva River
dropped drastically after the hydroelectric power plant was built on the river and the reservoir was dammed up
in 1956. Earlier, the high flow rate of the Narva River had restrained the damaging effect of currents and
waves on the beach. Formerly, the river also carried larger amounts of sand to its mouth, which settled at the
place where the river flow and sea currents crossed. As the accumulating and buffering effect of the Narva
River has essentially decreased, storms have full liberty to carry coastal sediments eastwards. Consequently, a
1.0 — m sea level rise combined with higher storm surges would cause very serious damages to the beaches and
t0 Narva-J6esuu, a resort well—known as such already at the end of the previous century.

The other site of great risk in the study area is Sillamae, an important industrial centre. The dumping
site of the former uranium enrichment plant at Sillamae is still the greatest threat to the environment of the
coastal plain and the Gulf of Finland. It is isolated from the waters of the sea by a narrow dam. Every year
thousands of tonnes of radioactive substances containing 238U, 232Th, and 226Ra leak into the soil and sea from
here. Sea level rise and stronger storms would increase the risk of breaking down the dam and causing cata—
strophic pollution of the sea.

The North Estonian Coastal Plain is, in general, sparsely populated. This is due to its size and shape,
infertile soils not suitable for cultivation, and the former Soviet Union’s boundary zone restrictions. Despite
that, a 1.0 — m sea level rise would have damaging effect on socioeconomic sector.

Aggregate economic vulnerability of Estonia to 1.0 m sea level rise expressed in USD would be the
following: 220,390,970 (inundation zone) + 574,721,315 (storm surge zone) = 795,112,285 (both zones
together).

22 I Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

Options for Methods to Prevent Land Loss

Coastal land loss can be prevented mainly by seawalls and beach nourishment. It is obvious that the
cities at risk, such as Tallinn, Parnu, Kuressaare, Haapsalu, Kardla, Sillamae, and Narva—Joesuu would need to be
protected by seawalls and dikes. Most of the harbors need upgrading. To ensure effective protection, the seawalls
must be much longer than the protected coastline length. These constructions tend to be very expensive, many
times exceeding the cost of potential losses. Anyway, this is one of the most reasonable options to prevent
socioeconomic damages in the cities, including relocation of the population.

As for the West Estonian Archipelago and the West Estonian Plain, the most useful adaptation option
to preserve unique and valuable natural ecosystems would be hardening of headlands to avoid the coastline
straightening. This method can be applied in the areas where we have nothing to loose on the shores of bays
behind the headlands. Hardening of headlands will probably result in much stronger erosion of bays. Finally, the
sandy beaches of Estonia need to be protected by beach nourishment, the technique which has been applied in
Narva—Joesuu. The same adaptation option would be needed also in the western part of Hiiumaa, south—western
part of Saaremaa, southern part of the Parnu-Ikla study area, and in limited sections of the northern coast of
Estonia. There are only some limited areas where the cost of beach nourishment will not exceed the expected
profit from recreation or tourism.

Conclusions

As a result of the present analysis, it can be concluded that the average sea level rise for 1.0 m would
result in considerable changes in coastal ecosystems and would lead to significant economic hazards. In particu—
lar, different regions of Estonia would suffer for different reasons. Increasing erosion and changes in sedimenta-
tion regime would cause serious disturbance in the areas of sandy beaches and dunes, particularly in south—
western and north-eastern Estonia. In addition, vanishing of sandy beaches will have negative impact on recre—
ation. In the western part of Estonia (including large islands), the direct destruction of the coast will not be so
strong, but the interaction of changing water level and land use would result in the decrease of species diversity.
Seashore plant and animal communities would relocate landwards.

In the western part of mainland Estonia and islands, most of highly diverse communities near the
shoreline are seminatural, i.e. they have been and are at present grazed and sometimes also mown. The inland
areas are primarily arable lands or overgrown grasslands, which are very poor in species. The lack of the pool of
suitable species and unfavourable conditions for species of seminatural seashore grasslands in transitional situa—
tions would result in considerable decrease of biodiversity. Moreover, inundation of one of the most important
objects of nature conservation in Estonia — the Kasari flooded meadow in the Matsalu Nature Reserve - a well
known breeding ground for many rare bird species — would have a negative influence not only on many local bird
populations, but also on populations of migrating birds species from all of Europe.

The economic hazards will be the highest in the area surrounding Tallinn, the capital of Estonia, where
the roads, houses and other constructions are often very close to the present shoreline. Salinity intrusions, in
general, would not provide a problem for Estonia. Freshwater consumption by people does not depend on the
upper layers ofground-water. Drinking water is usually pumped up from the very deep Vendian, Ordovician and
Silurian water horizons which would not be affected by sea level rise and saltwater intrusions. The only problem
from saltwater intrusions would be salinization of coastal soils and plant communities.

Acknowledgments
We would like to thank the U. S. Country Studies Management Team for facilitating our participation in

the Global Climate Change Project. We are also grateful to Dr. Kaarel Orviku for his contribution to our
analysis and for helpful comments.

Volume 2: Country Studies Report I 23

 

References

Bruun, P. (1962). Sea Level Rise as a Cause of Shore Erosion.]ournal of Waterway, Port, Coastal and Ocean
Engineering. ASCE, 88, pp. 117—130.

Kont, A., Ratas, U., Puurmann, E., Ainsaar, M., Partel, M., and M. Zobel (1996). Eustatic Fluctuations of the
World Ocean and Their Impact on the Environment and Social Life of Estonia. — In: ].—M. Punning
(ed.) Estonia in the System of Global Climate Change. Institute of Ecology. Publication 4/1996,
Tallinn, pp. 104—122. .

Orviku, K. (1987). The coast of Estonia and Its Changes. Eesti Loodus, 11, pp. 712-719 (in Estonian with
summations in Russian and in English).

Orviku, K. (1992). Characterization and Evolution of Estonian Seashores. Summary of Doctoral Thesis at
Tartu University. Tartu, 20 pp.

Raukas, A., Bird, E.D. 8c K. Orviku, (1994). The Provenance of Beaches on the Estonian Islands of Hiiumaa
and Saaremaa. Prkc. Estonian Acad. Sci. Ecology, 43, 2, pp. 81-92.

Vallner, L., Sildvee, H. &A. Torim. (1988). Recent Crustal Movements in Estonia. Journal of Geodynamics 9,
pp.215—223.

24 I Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

 

FIJI COUNTRY REPORT:
VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT IN FIJI

Paulo Vanualailai
Department of Environment

Suva, Fiji

Introduction
Under the U. S. Country Studies Programme, the Government of Fiji engaged the:

i) South Pacific Geoscience Commission (SOPAC) to undertake a survey of
coastal vulnerability to sea level rise in Suva City, the capital and principal
centre of the country.

ii) Mineral Resources Department (MRD) to assess and examine the types of
coastal structures in Fiji today and evaluate their effectiveness.

Even though a set of guidelines has been provided for this work which followed closely the common methodol—
ogy for assessing vulnerability to sea level rise in coastal regions (set out by the IPCC Response Strategies
Working Group, 1992, entitled “Guidance for Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment,” version 1.0—U.S.
Country Studies Management Team, Washington, October 1994 ), it seems that they have limitations in their
application to tropical reef coasts, particularly where international aid and traditional subsistence activities form
significant components of the economy (Woodroffe and Mclean, 1992 ).

Furthermore, the methodology, suggested in the US. Country Studies guidance volume for estimation of erosion
losses is based on processes operating along open sandy coasts without reefs. Even there, the Brunn (1962) model
of erosional response related to adjustment of an equilibrium shoreface profile (recommended for use in these
guidelines) have been shown to have very limited validity, except under stringent assumptions (Forbes et al.,
1989; Pilkey et a1. 1993). It is not generally applicable to supply-limited carbonate coasts, where landward losses
may be expected (Thom and Roy) and new sediment can be produced on the reef (Hopley 86 Kinsley, 1988).

In the foreword to the guidance volume, Ron Benioff (Technical Director of the CSMT) states that countries are
encouraged, where appropriate, to develop their ownmethods, which may provide for more accurate or thorough
analysis.” Thus the following adaptation of the IPCC Common Methodology and Country Studies guidelines is
proposed for this study:

Work Plan (see draft report on V/A of Suva Peninsula for further reference)

° Step ( i ) Delineate case study area and ASLR

' Step ( ii ) Inventory of study area characteristics

' Step ( iii ) Identify relevant development factors

' Step ( iv) Assess physical changes and natural system responses

° Step ( v) Formulation of responses strategies and cost assessment
° Step ( vi ) Assessment of vulnerability profile

' Step ( vii ) Needs assessment and action plan

Volume 2: Country Studies Report W 25

 

Work Progress

i) SOPAC: Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment, Coastal Impact of Sea level
Change, Suva and Vicinity, Viti Levu, Fiji.

There are two defined study areas:
la. This includes the Suva City Shoreline from Tamavua River to Samabula River
as a Primary Study Area, 14 kilometers.
lb. This includes Muaivuso Point to Nasoata/Buluta Passage as the expanded study
area or secondary study area, 40kilometres.

Surveys to map the elevation of the shoreline and beach shore have taken more time than anticipated, partly
due to the difficulty in locating suitable beach marks in the study area.

Detailed topographic maps at 150,000 scale with Sm contour have been digitalised into Mapinfo. Topo—
graphic information in the extended study area is being acquired using 1: 2500 manuscript maps.

SOPAC has developed a method to extract contour information from the scanned analog maps. The same
approach will be used to acquire bathymetric data once the charts have been scanned.

The detailed inventory of study area characteristics is continuing. Detailed mapping at 1:5000 scale has been
completed for all of the primary study area within the city limits. Approximately 45% of the data has been
entered into the GIS and will form the basis for a refined subdivision of the coast into appropriate segments
for detailed topographic / bathymetric surveys as a basis for modeling shore response and vulnerability to sea—
level rise.

The ground surveys required for this phase of the project have been completed. These surveys include the first

surveys over the Suva reef to delineate reef morphology. Surveys in the secondary study area will be completed
by the end oprril 1997.

ii) MRD: A Review of the Types of Coastal Protection Structures used in Fiji Today.

The aims of the study were to (i) identify what structures there are on the ground and (ii) evaluate their
effectiveness. The review was carried out on coastal protection structures located in within the four adminis—
trative districts of Fiji, Central, Eastern, Northern and Western Divisions (see figure 2a). It is very difficult to
evaluate the effectiveness of the types of coastal protection structures because local conditions at different sites
are unique. In addition, most coastal protection structures in Fiji are built without any assessment or informa—
tion being obtained on the environment surrounding them to enable comparisons and assessments to be made
later.

The most important issues identified in the review are:

i) the predominant use of seaways as a coastal protection structure;

ii) the lack of pre‘construction data and lack of design for such structures;

iii) the lack of monitoring by responsible agencies on the relevancy of such structures; and
iv) that lack of monitoring has led to massive losses being incurred all over Fiji especially in

coastal villages where seaways have fallen and rebuilt only to fail again. Lessons
could have been learnt much earlier to prevent events repeating itself.

26 I Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

Strategies for dealing with coastal erosion abound in literature (Kraus 1988) discussed various options for
dealing with this problem, starting with two basic questions which are:

a: Do we abandon what is being threatened and relocate landwardP, or
b: Should we try and stabilise the shore?

The review has found that, for some time, most of the communities in Fiji have been choosing option (a).
However, recently, the second option is becoming more common. The reason for this may be due to a number
of many factors. The two most important would be a rise in population in these coastal communities and an
increased perception (at least in Fijian communities) of individual property rights being more important than
communal interests. This leads to difficulties in relocating villages when being threatened by coastal erosion.

This is an ongoing task review which demands a lot of time and effort to investigate and identify existing
coastal structures for technical and scientific evaluation. The important findings that are outlined above
should be a guiding factor for any coastal protection structures developments that are to be implemented here
in the future.

Bibliography

1. Brunn, P. 1962. Sea Level Rise as a Cause of Shore Erosion. Journal of Waterway and Harbours Division,
ASCE, 88, 117 — 130

2. Forbes, D.L.,Taylor, RB. 8c Shaw,] 1989. Shorelines and Rising Sea—Levels in Eastern Canada Episodes,
12, 23-28.

3. Hopley, D. and Kinsey, D.W. 1988. The Effect of a Rapid Short—Term Sea-Level Rise on the Great Barrier
Reef. CSIRO, Melbourne, 189—201.

4. IPCC. 1992. Global Climate Change and the Rising Challenge of the Sea. IPCC, Response Strategies

Working Group, Coastal Zone Management Subgroup. Distributed by Directorate General,
Rijkswaterstaat, The Hague, 35p. 8cAppendix 5.

5. Pilkey, O.H., Young, R. S 8cThie1er, E. R. 1993. An Overview of Geological and Oceanographic
Assumptions Required by Coastal Models. In: Large—Scale Coastal Behaviour 93 (JHH List editor ).
US. Geological Survey, St Petersburg Open-file 93-381, 160—162.

6. Them, B.G. & Roy P. S. 1988. Sea level rise and climate: Lessons from the Holocene. In: Greenhouse
Planning for Climatic Change ( G. I. Pearrnan, editor ). CSIRO, Melbourne, 177-188.

7. Woodroffe, C. D. & McLean, R. F. 1992. Kiribati Vulnerability to Accelerated Sea—Level Rise: A
Preliminary Study. Unpublished report to Australian Government. University of Wollongong 86
Australian Defence Force Academy, 76 p.

8. Kraus, N. C. 1998 The Effects of Seaways on the Beach: An Extended Literature Review; Journal of
Coastal Research pages 1—28.

Volume 2: Country Studies Report I 27

 

fl INDONESIA

 

COASTAL RESOURCES VULNERABILITY
AND ADAPTATION IN INDONESIA -
A CASE STUDY AT SEMARANG COASTAL AREA

M. F. Rahardjo RTM. Sutamihardja

Bogor Agricultural University Deputy Assistant Minister of Environment
Bogor, Indonesia Jakarta, Indonesia

S. Sutisna

National Coordination Agency for
Surveying and Mapping (Bakosurtanal)

INTRODUCTION

Indonesia is an archipelagic country with about 17,500 islands with a total coastline exceeding 81,000
kilometers. Indonesia will suffer significant physical and socio—economic impacts from even very small rises in
mean sea level. Of a total population of about 200 million people, approximately 110 million live in coastal
areas. Thus the inundation of coastal and low—lying areas, the intrusion of salt water into coastal aquifers and
shallow ground water, and change tidal ranges in rivers and bays would severely impact millions of Indone—
sians. Sea level rise would also threaten seaports, beach resorts, coastal fisheries, and offshore oil drilling, all
critical sources of foreign exchange earnings which services Indonesia’s national, government and corporate
debt, amounting to nearly US$ 78 billion in late 1992. Indonesia realizes that the impact of climate change
will affect all aspects of life; therefore, Indonesia is aware of the necessity to protect the global, regional, and
national ecosystem.

Various related studies on climate change have been conducted in Indonesia with national level scope
or as part of regional studies:

* Monitoring and evaluation of the impact of climate change on sea level rise by KLH (Pranoto 62‘ 51]., 1990)
* Climate change study in western Indonesia by KLH (Safwan at 51]., 1991)

* Impact of climate change on agriculture and fisheries, by KLH (Manan at 511., 1992)

* The influence of climate change on coastal area development by KLH (Pranoto et 51]., 1992)

The report of most of the studies could be categorized as preliminary studies. However this efforts of studies
has shown Indonesians serious concern regarding the problem of climate change.

CASE STUDY ON COASTAL RESOURCES

Methodology

The case study of Semarang area has been carried out by using the following methods:
* mapping to identify the case study area

* collecting and superimposing digital terrain model (DTM) data of 100 m x 100 m grid with 0.5 m accuracy
* plotting of the IPCC scenarios

28 W Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

* Field surveys, remote sensing interpretation and collection of secondary (physical and socio—economic) data.
* Overlying physical and socio—economic data on the base map
* Analysis and discussion on possible adaptation responses

The IPCC common methodology was adopted in attempt to provide a comparable assessment of the
vulnerability of the Semarang coastal area due to sea level rise. The lPCC common methodology consists of
seven steps, i.e.: (i)delineation of case study area and specification of sea level rise (SLR) and climate change
boundary conditions, (ii) inventory of study characteristics, (iii) identification of relevant development factors,
(iv) assessment of physical changes and natural responses, (V) formulation of responses strategies, (vi) vulner—
ability assessment and interpretation of results, and (Vii) identification of types of assistance needed. This
method of assessment requires that the issues examined and the parameters measured are the same across the
region and could provide the basis for comparative study.

Based on the type of data available, at this stage of report, work on the above methodology has been
carried out to step 5. The work attempts to create scenarios depicting potential impacts in Semarang caused
by boundary conditions, i.e. due to a 0.3 m — 1.0 m change in sea level.

Delineation of Study Area

The geographical border of the case study area is approximately located between 60 55' — 70 00' south
latitude and 110°20' — 110030' east longitude. Four topomap sheets of 1:25 ,000 scale cover this area, the low
part of Semarang City. Administratively the city of Semarang, the capital city of Central Java Province, has a
total area of about 365 kmz’ comprising 9 districts.

In terms of topography, the city of Semarang can be divided in two parts, i.e. high—land and low—land
areas. The high-land area covers the southern part of the city, situated about 7 km south from the coast line,
with east—west orientation. Land elevation of this area greater than 50 m above sea level. The low—land area
covers the downtown of the city. This area has elevation range from 0 to 10 m above sea level, with east—west
orientation as well. The low-land area will be focus of the study, which covers about 125 km2, and four
districts, i.e. Semarang Tengah, Semarang Utara, Semarang Barat, and Tugu. About 50% of these district
areas has elevations ranging from 0 —3 m, and hence are vulnerable to sea level rise.

Results

Weather

Weather conditions in Semarang are characterized into wet and dry seasons. The wet season takes
place in November to April. This season is influenced by wet monsoons. The dry season takes places between
May and October. This season is influenced by the east winds. Average wind speed during wet seasons is
between 5.3 kph and 7.4 kph. Average rainfall during wet seasons is 1,797 mm and its intensity is 131 days a
year.

Topography and land cover

The physical characteristics of the Semarang topography are identified from topomaps of 1:25 ,000
scales and the 100 m x 100 m grided DTM (digital terrain model) in the Vicinity of the study area. The
1:25 ,000 topo maps have contour intervals of 12.5 m and 1 m spot heights. This map series provide general
overview of the land topography and land covers. More precise information on land elevation is provided by
the DTM of 100 m x 100 m grid with height information accuracy of about 0.5 m. These maps and DTMs
show that the city of Semarang has two topographic characteristics, i.e. flat—low—land in the northern part and
rough—high—land area in the south. Between the low-land and high—land areas, the topography has a steep
slope, with elevation range of about 10 to 50 m above sea level.

Volume 2: Country Studies Report I 29

 

Land cover data is obtained from the Semarang regional office of the Department of Mines and
Energy. Land cover maps available were based on the interpretation of B/W (black and white) aerial photo—
graphs of 1:50,000 scale taken in 1981, and of 1:25 ,000 scale taken in 1991. Land covers were also interpreted
from satellite imageries of Landsat—TM data acquired in 1993 and SPOT data acquired in 1994. Based on
those data and information, the land covers of study area were interpreted and deduced. The conclusions are
that the area is covered by settlement, grassland, ricefield, estates, forest and fishponds with good infrastruc-
ture facilities. Tables 1 shows a coverage relation between four dominant land covers and land elevation up to
2 meters above mean sea level in the study area.

Table 1. Land coverage related to land elevation

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Land cover 0.0 — 0.5 m elev 0.5 - 1.0 m elev. 1.0 — 1.5 m elev 1.5 - 2.0 m elev
Fishponds 936 Ha 936 Ha 936 Ha 936 Ha
Ricefields 80 Ha 600 Ha 600 Ha 600 Ha
Settlement city settlement City settlement lowland City and lowland City and
and Villages Villages Villages
mainroads, . mainroads,
settlement, mailn roads, settlement,
Transportation mainroads and airport, seaports, 86:“ 6:36:21 t airport, seaports,
facility settlement roads and railway arpo ’ S p or s, railway station
. d railway station and market
2:113; an and market
Geomorphology

The northern part of Semarang is characterized as coastal land, laid from the west to the east. Land
slope is less than 1%. This unit is dominated by alluvial disposal which has a low to medium plasticity.
Ground water table is less than 1 m in depth, local land subsidence is common in some places in flooded
areas. Land coverage of this unit is dominated by water (fishponds, ricefield), vegetation (mangrove) and
settlements (villages and ports).

The center part of Semarang is comprised of alluvium land formation and is part of the land geomor—
phological alluvium unit. It has east—west orientation and the middle part of the unit is slightly narrow with
land slope of about 3% to 5%. The land is composed of sandy clay and loamy clay. Underground water is about
2 — 4 meters deep. This unit is used for ricefields, mixed open land, city settlements and industrial estates.

Along the river basin area, one may find river terraces and flooding field lands composed of sand,
grain stone, stone and boulders. Average slope is less than 10%. River sedimentation has potential for C—type
mining. This unit is prone to erosion and flooding. Land use in this unit consists of ricefield, mixed plantation
and bushes. To the south center part, geomorphologic formations are comprised of hilly areas with steep
slopes of 30% — 70%. Its composition is formed by volcanic sediment.

30 W Volume 2: Country Studies Report 1

 

Sea Level and Salt Water Intrusion

Sea level data are available and were collected from the Administrator of the Semarang Sea Port, Tanjung
Emas Harbour of Semarang. Ten years of data were collected based on the daily records of the high tide
observation. The data were averaged for every month and every year. Table 2 show the summary of high tide
records from 1985 up to 1994.

Table 2. Sea level Variation in Semarang (1985 — 1994)

 

 

 

Year Mean high tide sea level (cm)

1985 134

1986 131

1987 135

1988 146

1989 149

1990 148

1991 151 ’
1992 153

1993 158 "a
1994 155

Mean 146.00

 

 

 

 

The existence of salt water intrusion in Semarang area was tested using EC meter. This data is
available at the regional office of Department Mines and Energy. The vulnerable area includes settlements,
commercial areas, ricefields and fishponds, with saltwater table depth of about 5 — 7.5 In below the topogra—
phy. Table 3 shows vulnerable area due to sea level rise (SLR) and salt water intrusion (SW1) in Semarang

City.

Table 3. Land vulnerability due to sea level rise (SLR) and salt water intrusion (SVVI) in Semerang City

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

N L (1 Area vulnerable to Area vulnerable to
0' a“ cover SLR (Ha) SWI (Ha)
1.00 Settlement 475.30 1697.30
2.00 Commercial offices 288.80 1321.60
3.00 Rice field 600.00 439.00
4'00 Fishpond 936.30 457.10
Total 2300.40 3915.00

 

Fisheries

 

Table 4 shows fish production in 1993 for some fish species and their estimated equivalent value in 1
Rupiah. lts yearly production value is about 2,208 million rupiahs. This data is based on a total sample area of
fish production of about 936.3 ha.

Volume 2: Country Studies Report I 31

 

Table 4. Fish Production in 1993 and 1994

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Commodity 19 93 19 94

Production (kg) Value (Rp.) Production (kg) Value (Rp.)
Milkfish 856,000.00 2,343,052,00000 710,300.00 1,987,419,000.00
Mullet 112,300.00 254,262,000.00 70,600.00 162,200,00000
Shrimp 667,500.00 3,958,115,000.00 540,200 3,203,256,00000
Others 89,800.00 112,309,00000 97,700.00 122,873,000.00

 

 

Vulnerability Analysis and Assessment

Spatial analysis was carried out to identify vulnerability and adaptation strategies in the study area.
Topographic data are treated as basic data «where various data are plotted. Primary and secondary data along
with other statistic information were plotted on the topographic maps to enable spatial analysis of vulnerable
areas. Other available thematic maps were superimposed on the topographic base map.

Vulnerability Analysis

Field identification of flood problems are mainly caused by the existence of land subsidence. In
addition, the rising of sea level contributes to the length of flooding periods. The flood has a periodical
characteristics according to the high period of about four to five hours daily. This circumstance may get worse
when the rainy season arrives, which can cause flooding for several days. Some aspects that increase vulner—
ability are related to the land use, economic activities and infrastructure, as well as public utilities. The follow—
ing land use categories are vulnerable:

* building of commercial/business, public services and government offices
* public settlement, and
* agriculture production (rice, fisheries, and others)

From an economic point of View, vulnerability will be related to commercial activities, public services,
manpower productivity, loss of job opportunities, etc. In infrastructure aspects, transportation facilities will be
very vulnerable, such as roads, airports, sea ports, railways and railway stations.

Salt water intrusion may cause various impacts to human life, either direct or indirect, such as health,
degradation of building life time, water supply, etc. Salt water intrusion and sea level rise are very closely
related.

Vulnerability Assessment

Qiantitative assessment of vulnerability is carried out by overlaying data on the base map. Related
aspects included in the assessment are settlement areas, commercial/business areas, agriculture areas (ricefield
and fisheries, in particular). Assessment results are shown in Table 3. Settlements (housing and public use) are
estimated based on the standard specification given by the Department of Public Work and Department of
Commerce, 1994. The ratio between housing and public use is 40:60 Based on this ratio, the equivalent is
285.2 ha (housing use) and 190.1 Ha (public use), valued at 489,125,650,000 rupiahs. The loss value of
commercial/business area is 504,602.13 million rupiahs. Table 4 indicates the impact of sea level rise on
fisheries.

32 W Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

Formulation of Adaptation Strategy and Response

There are three common adaptation strategies available. They are: (i) retreat response, (ii) accommo—
date response, and (iii) protect response. The first approach means all the activities in the coastal zone have to
be shifted to the south, which implies changing activities and land use. This approach may not be an effective
or efficient. The reason is the land area in the south of the coast (about 2 km away) is full of city settlements
area with full infrastructure and facilities; and hence this strategy will not be a good recommendation for
Semarang.

The second approach may be carried out by considering social—economic conditions and the biophysi—
cal environment of the Semarang coastal area, that may be covered by sea water if sea level rise occurs. If sea
level rise is increase by 1 m, in the east and western area of Semarang, where fishponds dominate the land
cover, the area will be covered by sea water permanently. This area may still be useful for fisheries, i.e. by
converting fishponds into mariculture. A possibility for mariculture is to develop is seaweed and groupers.
Suitable seaweed may be Eur/96mg. This type of seaweed is relatively simple to handle and has a good market
prospects. Good prospects for fish would be grouper (Epinepbelus spp.) and rabbitfish (Siganus spp.).

The third approach will be suitable for application to the center area of Semarang where urban facili—
ties and infrastructure, such as a business center, harbor, railway station, etc. are well established. They are not
likely to be easily replaced and resettled in other areas. For this particular area, two alternative protection
strategies are recommended i.e. watergates and water breaks. To construct watergates, it is very important to
know the record of sea level data. High level tide data must be used for the design of watergates. The construc—
tion of waterbreaks are required in the centre part of the Semarang coastal area to protect human settlements
and many other public infrastructure and utilities. These alternatives may be carried out in Semarang and may
be combined with water—pump systems.

Assessment of the IPCC Methodology in Physical Change

Some constraints have been identified in completing the seven steps of the IPCC common Methodol—
ogy, i.e.:

* Full data needed to completely describe scenarios were not available

* Heavy rain and land subsidence have to be considered as a related impact, but they are not included in
measures seeking to minimize the risk of flooding events.

* The concept of nature’s ability to recover can not be quantified.

Taking into account those limitations, the methodology seem useful in providing valuable information
to governments as to the vulnerability of their lands and how to adapt response strategies to address those
potential conditions.

Future Work Plan

In order to be able to apply the full seven steps of the IPCC Common Methodology, the following
plan of work is proposed:

1) Extending the case study area to the north of Java Island, west of Semarang, and up to Cirebon, in order to
provide a more comprehensive study on the sea level rise issue in the coastal area, representing a Indonesian
coastal zone country study

2) The results will be used to develop an Integrated Coastal Zone Management Program.

Volume 2: Country Studies Report M 33

 

 

MOZAMBIQUE

VULNERABILITY OF COASTAL RESOURCES TO CLIMATE CHANGES IN MOZAMBIQUE:
A CALL FOR INTEGRATED COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT

David Chemane
INAHINA, National Institute of Hydrography and Navigation
Maputo, Mozambique

Helena Motta
MICOA, Ministry for the Coordination of Environmental Affairs
Maputo Mozambique

Mussa Achimo

Eduardo Mondlane University, Faculty of Sciences,
Department of Geology,

Maputo Mozambique

ABSTRACT

The planet is aficted by the emission of difi’erent gases which are largely generated by human activities. The “blanleet”
these gases form around the planet is likely to aflzct the climate balance. The resulting warmth could cause partial
melting of the polar ice—caps, as well as the thermal expansion of the sea water, with the consequence of harmful degrees
of sea—level rise.

If global warming becomes a reality, with the consequential sea—level rise, Africa’s numerous islands and all its low—
lying coastal areas, which include large areas of Mozambique, would be strongly afiected, including Mozambique.

This paper describes how the projected sea—level rise would afi‘ect a particular area in Mozambique, just one of the
many vulnerable areas. The article focuses also on the broader framework for integrated coastal zone management in
Mozambique and its enormous challenges, aiming to accommodate not only current problems facing the coastal zone,
but also those resulting from the projected accelerated sea level rise

1. INTRODUCTION

The coast of Mozambique is one of the country’s most valuable natural assets but also it is its most vulnerable
front. Coastal resources in the form of fisheries, agriculture, tourism and forest have the potential to contrib-
ute significantly to the national income, as well as of providing social and economic benefits to the population
that lives in this area.

Mozambique is located in Southern Africa (Fig. 1), facing the western Indian Ocean, between 10°27’ S and
26°52’ S latitude and 30°12’ E and 40°51 ’ E longitude.

Although one of the poorest countries in the world, Mozambique possesses rich land, marine and mineral
resources. Almost 70% of the country is covered by savanna and secondary forests. Approximately 45% of the
territory has the potential for agriculture. Nine major river systems cross the country. Mozambique’s coastline,
which stretches for about 2,700 km, is the third longest in Africa. There are extensive wetland systems along

34 I Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

Figure 1
the coast with a total of 500,000 ha mangrove

 

coverage (Sakai, M,ez‘ 511,1994), and offshore
coral reefs in the north of the country as well as in
the south. The coastal zone is also characterized
by large estuaries, beautiful beaches and impor—
tant banks for fisheries with an estimated poten-
tial for commercial fisheries of 390,000 tons
(MAR 1995).

The current population of Mozambique is
estimated at more than 16.5 million, and expected
to grow at an annual rate of 3%. About 40% of
the population now live in coastal districts, which
represents less than 23% of the total area, result-
ing in higher population density than elsewhere.

   

Ancacx:

Most of the cities of Mozambique are also located
on the coast. Sewage is not treated but discharged
directly into the sea. Industrial and agricultural
residues are also polluting the sea both through
sewage and river effluent. The ports do not have
any devices for oil spill and tank cleaning. More—
over, the Mozambique Channel is the route of
large oil tankers and there is no control for tank
cleaning nor a contingency plan for oil spills.

2. Coastal Physical Features

The coastal zone from Ponta do Ouro in the
south to latitude 16° S, immediately north of
Angoche, is composed by unconsolidated (Eater—
nary to Recent sediments, mostly sand dunes and

 

 

 

sandy plains, but interspersed with heavier
textured soils (alluviums) at the larger river mouths. In the northern part, around latitude 16° S, including
Macambo, Nacala and Memba bay areas, Tertiary basalt occurs. From Angoche northwards, heavily faulted
Cretaceous to Tertiary sediments line the coast.

The morphology of the coastal area is characterized into low lands, rising landwards above 200 In between 15
and 140 km from the shore. The coastline is characterized by a strip of beaches, recent dunes and inland
lagoons in the south; by mangroves, swampy depressions and series of low beach ridges in the centre and
mangroves, small dunes alternating with cliffs in the north (Sayao, 1995). The existing alluvial valleys have
fertile clay soils and a steppe—like vegetation. There are predominant extensive plains and inland dunes with
poor sandy soils and a savanna vegetation. Three hydrogeological provinces can be identified in following:

(i) a series of dune belts developed along the whole coast southern of Save river, on which the porous eolian
sands form a regional phreatic aquifer with fresh ground water. The permeability decreases from the coast
landwards, as a consequence of an increase in clay content.

(ii) the alluvial valleys developed along the main rivers may contain productive stratified good quality aquifer.

(iii) in the volcanic terrains, primary and secondary fractures are the most important waterbearing features in
the rocks.

Volume 2: Country Studies Report W 35

 

The climate in the region north of the Zambezi river is under the influence of the equatorial low pressure
zone with a NE monsoon in the warm season. The climate south of Zambezi river is influenced by subtropical
anti—cyclonic zone. To the North of Sofala along the Zambezi river lay a transitional zone with high rainfall
figures.

The rainfall is mainly restricted to the warm season from November to April. According to the classification
of Koppen, the northern (Cabo Delgado, Niassa, Nampula and Zambezia) coastal regions have a tropical rain
savanna climate (BWw), whereas the upland areas of the interior have a humid temperature climate (CW).

In the lowlands, temperature increases northward and inland. The average annual temperatures is 23° C along
the southern coast, and 26° C along the northern coast.

2.1. Coastal erosion

Coastline changes have been observed over the years and may also result from local human action, which
tends to interfere with natural sedimentation processes or other processes which occur at the interface be-
tween the ocean and land. Examples of such activities include removal of coastal natural vegetation such as
mangroves, dune vegetation, destruction of offshore barriers, e.g., coral reefs, tourism, extracting economic
minerals from dark sands, or sand mining for constructions. No detailed work in sediment dynamics and
shoreline changes is yet available.

3. VULNERABILITY OF COASTAL RESOURCES TO CLIMATE CHANGES

Mozambique is signatory of the Framework Convention on Climate Change which objective is to regulate
levels of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, so as to avoid the occurrence of climate change at
levels that would harm economic development or even impede food production activities (UNEP/WMO,

J 995).

The planet is affected by the emission of different gases ( such as carbon dioxide, clorofluorocarbons, meth—
ane, nitrous oxide) which are largely generated by human activities. The resulting warmth could cause melting
of the polar ice—caps, as well as the thermal expansion of the sea water, with the consequence of harmful
degrees of sea-level rise.

If global warming becomes a reality, with the consequential sea—level rise Africa’s numerous islands and all its
low—lying coastal areas, including large areas of Mozambique would be strongly affected.

Sea—level rise is expected to accompany global warming due to so—called green house gases and hence may be
viewed as an indicator of the expected consequential global changes. The rates of future sea—level rise are
comparable to those of the early Holocene. The important difference however is that during the early Ho—
locene the complete coastal system was mobile, being freely able to retreat landward, in response to the rising
sea. At present, however, coastal constructions ( dykes, walls, groynes, etc.) at the mainland block landward
migration of coastal systems.

Sea—level rise is generally inferred from sea level data of sufficient length, often spanning for decades.
Mozambique sea level records are full of gaps and consequently are inadequate for sea level trend estimates.
However, records from neighbouring regions, as from South Africa, show trends comparable to the global
estimates. Therefore predictions of future sea—level rise around southern Africa may be adopted from globally
modelled studies (Hug/yes et 41., 1992).

It is generally recognized that sea—level rise will further exacerbate already existing problems in coastal areas
rather than create new ones. In many parts of the world, human activities in the coastal areas have increased

36 I Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

natural subsidence causing a faster sea-level rise than the projected acceleration due to global warming.
Therefore coastal states must seek solutions for current problems facing coastal areas which accommodate the
potential impacts of future sea-level rise.

In Mozambique about 40% of the population live and work in coastal districts (Leonel, J 996). Domestic and
international tourism is now the fastest growing industry, employing thousands of people.

The increasing pressure on coastal resources and any changes in sea—level are likely to have far reaching socio—
economic and environmental consequences. Thus, the current environmental legislation must incorporate
measures to avoid endangering future populations and environments in the event of sea—level rise. For this
purpose it is necessary to identify, classify and map vulnerable areas. Clearly this is not an easy task because of
the lack of physical, demographic and economic data. In particular, thematic and appropriate topographic
maps are not available.

Given the available resources and time frame for the proposed vulnerability assessment the AVVA (Aerial
Videotape Assisted Vulnerability Analysis—US. Country Studies Program, Guidance for Vulnerability and
Adaptation Assessment, 1994) method was applied for it is rapid and the physical data obtained are satisfac-
tory for a first order vulnerability analysis, i.e. high risk areas can be identified and mapped. The most vulner—
able area, the city of Beira was selected for a more detailed study.

3.1. Impact of sea-level rise on the Mozambican coast
The impacts of sea level rise on the coast of Mozambique can be subdivided in three regions, as follow:

- Region of bays (about 670 km) : less vulnerable
— Region of rivers (about 900 km) : high risk (inundation erosion)
— Region of lagoons ( about 1000 km) : moderate (erosion)

3.2. Pilot study on sea-level rise impacts
3.2.1. Site description

Beira was selected for the pilot study for it is deemed a high risk area in the event of sea level rise.

Beira is a low lying harbour town of strategic importance for Mozambique and the hinterland. It is the
nearest natural port for Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe and other landlocked countries in southern Africa.
The design of the port was upgraded in the 80’s in order to receive larger vessels up to around 60,000 tons and
can handle millions of tons of cargo a year, from containers, bulk and crude oil.

Around the harbour, a city has developed to become the second largest of Mozambique and is home for more
than 200,000 people according to 1980 census. The actual current population is thought to be far in excess of
this figure. Most of the town is below high water level and has several channels built in that were designed to

prevent flooding and reduce the effect of fast rising water during floods on the fragile ridge protection.

Beira is located at centre—east of Mozambique at mouth of Pungué river, which discharges huge amounts of
sediments into the forelying bay. It is a flat physiographic unit consisting of old beach ridges, cuspate spit,
marshes, wetland and storm ridge.

The bay has a semi—diurnal tide with a daily inequality of 0.4 m. The mean spring and mean neap tidal range
amounts to 5.7m and 1.7m respectively. The currents are very strong, reaching up to 5 knots in the dredged
channel.

Volume 2: Country Studies Report W 37

 

Heavy rainfall occurs from December to March and the average annual rainfall amounts to 1200 - 1500 mm.
The dominant wind direction is from south—east. From October to February there is a chance for winds from
southerly and easterly directions.

3.2.2. Geomorphology of Beira

Beira has mostly been built on the old beach ridges and the old spit, with vast areas that appear to be pounded
by the ridges, marshes and wetland. Storm ridges occur locally, e.g. at Praia Nova. Evidence of these physi—
ographic features, with the exception of storm deposits, were not distinctive in the field, because of urban
development. However, the cuspate spit is still readily discernible on aerial photographs from 1959. Small
fragments of single ridges appear randomly surrounded by marshes. The marshes, with a network of older
small tidal streams draining the surface, and sometime dashed by vegetation are tentatively interpreted as a
filled bay which was then vegetated by mangroves. Today this area is separated from the modern bay by a
narrow beach ridge and often is flooded during spring tides.

The old sand spit is extended into the old filled bay from Ponta Gea headland, known as the Grande Hotel.
The cuspate shape of the spit may be partly the result of overwash by wave action and appears also to be
related to the outgoing tidal currents from the filled bay. The abandonment of the old beach and the building
up of a new beach may have resulted from a slight lowering of sea level. Indeed, between 7,000 and 4,000
years BP the sea level was about 2.4 above the present level (Jaritz 1977). Dismembered ridges rising out from
the modern coastal marshes suggest subsidence of the land, that is partly tectonic driven by the Chire—Urema—
Pungué graben and partly by sediment loading plus seasonal floods.

The combined effect of waves and storms has probably contributed to the building up of the storm deposit at
Praia Nova storm deposit. This ridge is transacted by a large tidal channel that links the backridge muddy
swamp with the bay. There are clues that storms interfered in the building up of the storm ridge at Praia
Nova. It consists of non-cohesive shelly sand followed by gravelly sand (quartz pebbles, shell debris and mud
pebbles); this grades upwards into medium to fine quartz sand, displaying planar lamination marked by grain
size variation. The fining upward trend reflects the transition from storm conditions to the normal wave
climate whereby, however, there is a prevalence of the storm conditions.

The old filled bay is inferred from an exposed vertical section further north towards Ponta Gea where the
outcrops show an alternation between fine or muddy sand and organic rich dark mud. These alternation
appears quite rhythmic and resembles the processes that are still occurring in the modern bay. These processes
are better understood looking at the daily sediment accumulation in the intertidal flat close to Praia Nova.
There are pulses of sand that are deposited during flood tide and capped by soft organic rich mud that is
deposited during slack water stage and its following ebb tide. The whole section is a kind of a tidal couplet of
flood/ ebb tidal cycles.

In the eastern side the coast faces direct attack by waves which cause accretion of the beach, building up a
sand plain that later became the emergent modern beach ridge that lies out of the intertidal level. The excess
of sand from the beach ridge is blown inland. Where the coast is fenced by obstacles either natural or artifi—
cial, the wind promotes further vertical accretion and has resulted in eolian dunes being formed. These
geomorphic features are common along the eastern side of Beira and all along the coast either side of the town
up to Chinde and down to the Save river mouth.

3.3. Sea-level rise scenarios and related coastal erosion in Beira

The beach from Macuti Lighthouse to the Ponta Gea headland shows the features of an eroding beach with a
southward littoral drift. The drifting trend was inferred from bedform patterns in the runnels and on the top

38 I Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

of the sand ridges and from the vertical accretion of sediments close to the groynes. Erosion is severe at Ponta
Gea headland area, known as the Grande Hotel. Furthermore, huge amount of sediments (mainly sand) that
are artificially trapped with a tripod construction is daily removed with bulldozers from the beach for con—
structions. This results in the disruption of the dynamic equilibrium of the sediments—sharing-system.
Changes in any part of the system would primarily be compensated by sediment transport to or from other
parts of the same system. Temporary changes, e.g. those caused by storm, will be eventually restored after
some time. Sand mining causes the shoreline to loose its longshore quantitative equilibrium, which means
that the quantity of sediments that is passed out through downdrift is not the same that is passed back in
updrift.

The pit that results after the removal of sand fill completely again after the following flood tide. The sand is
supplied by coastal drift and by being removed never reach downdrift. Consequently, the net sedimentation
rate downdrift is significantly reduced by human activities. Indeed, the main source of sediment to the whole
system in the past was the sum of coastal drift and river discharges. Today, only the river discharges account
for almost the total sedimentation downdrift. This is probably the main reason for the accelerated erosion
observed in the Grande Hotel area.

In addition, the indiscriminate cutting of trees for fuel and low cost habitation in the mangrove fields be—
tween Praia Nova and Grande Hotel induce changes in the hydrodynamic regime. The system allows the
rapid transfer of large amounts of sediments seawards, promoting further erosion, which is evident from the

mud pebbles left behind on the surface.

Increased coastal erosion as result of future sea-level rise is modelled using the Brunn Rule ( Bruun, Z 962):
For S are assumed scenarios of 0.2, 0.5 and 1m increase in sea—level, the likely response to global warming by
2025, 2080 and 2100 respectively (IPCC, 1990). The term height B is taken from the beach profiles and is
between 1 to 4 metres. The maximum depth of closure h is taken as 18 and the distance to this depth, the
active profile width, is taken from the hydrographic chart (about 20 km).

TABLE I: Bear/.7 erosion predicted by five Brunn rule

Scenarios of sea level rise
Erosion (in meters)

Profile M M 1_m
P1 179 440 880
P2 166 415 830
P3 166 415 830
P4 1 78 446 892
P5 167 41 7 834
P6 183 457 914
P7 166 415 830
P8 167 418 836
P9 172 430 860
3.4. Discussion of the impacts of sea-level rise

In Beira, and several kilometres either side along the coastal strip, the prominent ridges appear unconnected to
each other. These ridges are separated by low relief plains that extend backridge, with some of them transacted
by several inlets. Taking into consideration these geomorphological features, the impacts of sea level rise are
discussed, in the following, for the different future scenarios mentioned above:

Volume 2: Country Studies Report m 39

 

— Scenario 1 : Sea—level rise of 0.2 meters by the year 2025

The coastal impacts in response to this amount of sea—level rise will not differ from those observed during the
field survey, which coincided with the maximal predicted tidal range of 7 meters. The sea water spills over the
sea wall onto the road and flows through the fissures of the wall protecting the port pavement and this will be
more frequent in the future. The sea water will inundate the low relief marshes which will openly connect to
the sea following erosion of the existing beach ridge beyond the sea wall. Waterlogging problems already exist
and they are expected to increase as well as the associated engineering problems, following the gradual eleva—
tion of water tables.

- Scenario 2 : Sea—level rise of 0.5 meters by the year 2080

In addition to the above, remaining coastal ridges will be overwashed by waves and the low relief plains
inundated by sea water. Part of the town, including the port and probably the airport, will be inundated at
high waters of spring tides. Many parts of the city already face problems related to domestic waste disposal.
The waste is not removed but buried in the vicinity of the houses. So environmental problems are expected to
increase, along with related health problems.

- Scenario 3 : Sea—level rise of 1 meter by the year 2100

The same as for scenario 2 but more extensive. As consequence, a kind of relief—induced barrier islands could
be formed. It is estimated that 40% of around 42.5 Km2 total area of the city will be permanently inundated.
The navigation channel is likely to be affected following changes in water circulation and sediment distribu—
tion, with the groyne system submersed and no longer effective in preventing the drifting of sediments into
the navigation lane.

While land loss by itself could be accommodated by allowing for landward migration, the cost of losing the
existing infrastructure such as the airport and the port is simply huge and cannot be afforded by the country’s
already fragile economy. If mitigation measures are not timely and the port activities are jeopardized, the
economy of the region will probably collapse, as the port is the main driving force. More than 200,000 people
will be directly affected. In addition, not only the country’s economy will be affected but that of some
neghbouring countries too. They currently use the port for the export and import of commodities and crude
oil. The remaining options imply higher transportation costs which will inevitably trigger a rise in prices, thus
affecting even more people.

4. ‘ PRESENT STATUS OF INSTITUTIONAL AND LEGAL FRAMEWORK IN COASTAL
AREAS

Mozambique’s coastal strip is characterized by multiple and conflicting human activities, such as rural and
urban settlements, agriculture, forest exploitation and fisheries. Tourism and transportation activities are also
playing a growing significant role.

On the other hand, the coastal areas are made of complex ecosystems of great value as habitats of tremendous
variety in biodiversity. The fragility and the ecological importance of some of these areas together with their
economic value, have lead the authorities to seek legal protection of some of these areas. However, this effort
has often been undermined by the lack of enforcement and their resulting unplanned occupation. Population
pressures lead to disorganized land use and the exploitation of natural resources far above their carrying
capacity. Consequently, negative processes such as soil erosion, mangrove depletion and loss of biodiversity
occur in an accelerated fashion.

40 I Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

Presently, a number of institutions have sectoral competencies for coastal management. But their mandates are
either unclear, full of gaps, conflicting and overlapping. These are, among others, the Ministry for the Coordi—
nation of Environment Affairs (coastal/marine environment), the Ministry of Transports and Communica—
tions (coastal shipping), the Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries (fisheries, coastal parks and coastal agricul—
ture), the Ministry of Industry, Commerce and Tourism (industrial effluent and tourism), the Ministry of
Public Works and Housing (coastal construction), the Cities and Local municipalities (multiple powers and
responsibilities), etc.

4.1. The Government Initiatives: ICZM

InJune 1994, the Government approved the National Environmental Management Programme (NEMP),
which is the master plan for the environmental sustainability in Mozambique. One of the priorities of NEMP
is coastal areas management and establishes the integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) concept as the
correct approach.

The department responsible for coastal areas within the Ministry of Environment (MICOA) is composed of a
team of professionals from different disciplines, the CZM Unit, and is responsible for all the activities related
to coastal area management, including studies, planning, programme management and coordination

(MI C014, 1995 [7). This unit is presently coordinating an inter—institutional technical committee coordinating
the different institutions dealing with the coastal zone (e.g. the maritime authority, the local administration,
research institutions, tourism, the fishery Department, etc).

4.2. Towards an ICZM process

There is a need to study, at the micro level, the complex interfaces existing between the population aspects, the
environmental aspects and the development aspects in each region. This means that there is a need to know,
on the one hand, the ecological structure of a region and the resources existing in it, and on the other hand, its
carrying capacity and resulting consequences of human activities.

Having all this in mind, research activities in the coastal area must be developed, starting with the definition
of priority areas of investigation. This investigation will constitute the base for future action plans that the

MICOA must promote.

Coastal research activities will be coordinated, in the short term, from the Coastal Zone Management Centre
to be established in Xai—Xai with funds from various donors. In the medium and long term, the centre will
plan and install two more research units in the coast of Mozambique (one in the Central region, an other one

in the North).
4.2.1. Pilot Projects
A number of pilot projects should be prepared and carried out, with the following objectives:

-To enhance the capacity of MICOA on environment management, with the participation of local communi—
ties;

—To provide demonstration projects for the sustainable use of coastal resources;

—To train and educate staff ofMICOA and line Ministries for coastal zone management issues.

—To tackle situations on areas of conflict and of advanced degradation needing immediate actions.

Among the projects already being implemented, there are at least three projects on coastal resources manage—
ment by local communities, involving funds from donors and local communities (one in north, and two in the
south) worth about 1.5 million dollars total.

Volume 2: Country Studies Report W 41

 

5 . CONCLUSIONS

While it is recognised that the country will be severely affected as whole by an increased sea—level rise, adap—
tive or mitigation measures must take into account specific factors related to each impacted region. Thus,
there is a need to conduct case studies targeting particular regions that have attracted human settlements
whereby, in most cases, there is also an important and driving economic and social factor. In less developed
areas it can be assumed that nature will adjust to sea—level rise. However, exception must be made for regions
adjacent to impacted regions as they may as well be affected, e.g. by activities upland within a hydrographic
basin or by coastal drift. This is applicable for current as well as for future problems.

It is understood that, rather than exploiting coastal resources, they must be managed for sustainable develop—
ment. The natural framework is ICZM, which is being developed to help solve present problems and well as
accommodate climate change—induced ones. For new development areas, the precautionary approach will be
preferred. Regulatory measures and a set of guidelines shall be developed that allows, in particular, a free
migration of coastal ecosystems. Adaptive measures are sought to mitigate the impacts of climate change in
developed coastal areas. Resources are limited and are often diverted by other priorities such as malnutrition,
disease, etc.. However it must appreciated that while coastal problems like those facing Beira may not appear
urgent at present, appropriate steps must be taken now to mitigate future consequences.

6. REFERENCES

CNA (1993). Compilac'ao da Legislacao Ambiental Principal em Vigor em Mocambique (Compilation of
Main Environmental Legislation in Mozambique), Internal report, CNA, Maputo, 323 pp.

GTA (1990). “Mozambique, The Present Environmental Situation”, Internal report, GTA, Maputo, 146 pp

plus annexes.

MAP (1995). Politica Pesqueira e Estratégias de Implementacao (Fisheriy Policy and Implementation
Strategies), Internal report, MAP, Maputo, 23 pp.

MICOA/UEM (1995). “A Status Q10 Assessment of the Coastal Zone, Mozambique. Phase I: Ponta
do Ouro-Xai—Xai”. Edt. John Hatton, Maputo, 60 pp plus annexes.

Hughes, P., Brundrit, GB. (1992). The Vulnerability of Walvis Bay to Rising Sea Levels. Journal of Coastal
Research, Vol 8, No.4.

Lopes,L.(1996). Pressao Populacional na Zona Costeira — Mito ou Facto. O Papel da Investigac'ao na Gestao
da Zona co Steira. Edts. Dias, D. et al. (1996), UEM, Department of Biological Sciences, Maputo.

U.S. Country Studies Program (1994). Guidance for Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment (Coastal
resources sector) Version 1.0. US. Country Studies Management Team (PO—63). 1000 Independence
Ave. S.W., Washington, DC 20585.

Jaritz (1977). Geologische, mineralogische and chemische Untersuchung des terretrischen Pleistozans der
Ponta Matirre bei Pebane (Mozambique). Geol.Jb., B26, Hannover.

Bruun, P.(1962). Sea level rise as a cause for of shore erosion. Journal waterways and Harbours Division.
Proceedings of the American Society of Civil Engineers,88, 117-130.

42 I Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

IPCC (1990). Sea level rise. Scientific Assessment of Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel for
Climate Change.

MICOA (1995a). Programa Nacional de Gestao Ambiental (National Environment Management
Programme), 80 pp.

MICOA (1995b). NEMP/Programme Support Document, 50 pp.

MICOA (1995c). Terms of References for the Costal Zone Management Centre in Xai—Xai. Environment in
Southern Africa. Internal report (draft). MICOA, Maputo.

Bull. Soc. Geol. France, 3, pp 419—422.

Sayao, Octavio (1995). Integrated Coastal Area Management Plan For Xai—Xai, Mozambique. Draft Report
Of The First Mission And Sectorial Report. Acqua Engineering Inc.

SARDC, (1994). “State of the Environment in Southern Africa”. SARDC/IUCN/SADC. Edts. Munyradzi
Chenje and Phyllis Johnson, Johanesburg, South Africa, 332 pp.

Saket, M. and Matusse, R., (1994). “Study for the Determination of the rate of the Mangrove Vegetation
in Mozambique” FAQ/PNUD, MOZ/ 92/031, May, 9 pp.

UNEP/WMO, (1995). “United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change”. booklet, Switzerland,
29 pp.

Volume 2: Country Studies Repon m 43

 

 

PLANNING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE THROUGH
INTEGRATED COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT IN NIGERIA

I. B. Obioh and A. O. Adegbulugbe
Centre for Energy Research and Development,

Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile—Ife, Nigeria.

ABSTRACT

The total coastal zone of Nigeria is known to span about 853 km. The analysis of the potential for climate
impact on this zone is presented, by reviewing the studies carried out to isolate source strengths, impacts,
responses and adaptations of the marine and coastal zone to climate change. Impact and adaptation studies so
far estimated the land and population vulnerable to sea—level rise. No studies are available to model the impact
of human activities on climate variables. However, some of the indices required for such models are being
monitored currently. Results from these form the focal point for modeling/ establishing SLR and the associ-
ated impacts on the coastal region of Nigeria. Results will also enable a cost effective policy to be adopted for
an integrated approach to coastal zone management to be deduced for national planning. Since the zone is a
major contributor to the emissions of the green-house gases (GHG) and their precursors, the integrated
coastal zone management plan to combat climate change must integrate source reduction/ mitigation analysis
with responses of the zone to climate change and adaptations of the resources and species to climate change
into the management equation.

1. INTRODUCTION

Nigeria is a country with a medium population range (about 90 million people) and a fast developing
economy. An analysis of the energy consumption, industrial production, agriculture, waste management and
land use change indices, show that Nigeria’s current contribution to the current global warming in terms of
emissions of greenhouse and precursor gases are likely to be minimal, based on the annual CO2 emissions of
5.50.5 Gt COZ-C/year from fossil fuels and cement production globally, and a further 1.61.0 Gt COZ—C/year
from land use change (IPCC, 1995). However, with the high growth rate in population (estimated to be 2.8%
per annum) coupled with a potential for higher economic fortunes, Nigeria may be one of the developing
countries which may contribute to climate change through increased use of energy, increased industrial,
agricultural and land use change activities, especially on sea level rise (SLR). The impact of climate change,
however is not strictly local. Hence with the current global estimates of SLR, the zone is also highly vulner—

able due to its low lying coastal areas, some of which are below the mean sea level, and that a metre rise in the

mean sea level off the Nigerian coast may lead to the submergence of over 60% of Lagos State, 50% of Ondo,
35% of Edo and Delta States, 70% of Rivers State, 20% of Akwa Ibom State and 15% of Cross River State
(Tobor, 1991). This paper summerises the missing links in the studies so far carried out, data acquisition and
research efforts to fill these missing links, and their relevance in integrated coastal zone management in
Nigeria. The main geomorphological zones of the Nigerian continental shelf is presented in Figure 1. These
comprise the barrier-lagoon coast (220 km), the Mahin Transgressive Mud Coast (83 km), the accurate Niger
Delta (450km), and the Strand Coast (100km).

The assessment of the impacts of climate on the coastal regions has so far been carried out by mostly the
developed countries. These called for an integrated approach to the management of coastal zone resources to
enable all the elements of the response—and-adaptation equation for the coastal zone be considered in na—
tional planning. Nigeria has also recognized these elements as part of a national effort to protect the coastal
resources from the impacts of SLR and other associated effects.

44 I Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

2. REVIEW OF SOME STUDIES RELATED TO CLIMATE CHANGE

A review of some important studies related to climate change may be divided into two broad groups: the
upstream and downstream processes. While the upstream processes discusses studies carried out to isolate
climate change induced by GHG emissions, the downstream studies evaluate the impacts of climate change as
related to coastal zone responses.

2.1 UPSTREAM STUDIES (GHG EMISSIONS AND CLIMATE DATA).

The emissions of greenhouse and precursor gases in Nigeria has been carried out for 1988 and 1990 model
years. Results for 1990 show that 178 Tg C02, 2.72 Tg CH4, 18.55 Gg N20, 13.3 Tg CO, 404 Gg NOX and
1.02 Tg NMVOC were emitted in 1990 (Obioh and Adegbulugbe, 1996). Energy and land use sectors
contribute highest to net C02 emissions, while agriculture, industry and waste management also significantly
contribute to the emissions of the non—C02 trace gases. The trends in the emissions of C02, CO, CH4, NOX
and N20 arising from the increasing consumption of the fossil fuels in Nigeria is given in Figure 2. Both
energy consumption data and total pollutant emissions indicate that substantial pressure is being brought to
bear on the fossil fuel resources since the late 19505 and are leading to increasing emissions of greenhouse
pollutants into the atmosphere. Gas flares which form part of fugitive emissions from the oil and gas produc—
tion are the most important contributors to C02 and trace gases. The annual minimum and maximum
temperature anomalies computed from the monthly mean values are presented for two coastal cities — Calabar
and Lagos (Figure 2) as well as the city of Kano 1n the northern Nigeria The trends show evidence 0f1n—
creases in mean annual surface air temperatures in the Nigerian cities between 1945 and 1990 (Obioh, 1995).
The rates of 1ncreases however vary among the cities, being highest for Lagos (1%C rise between 1965 and
1990), and nearly equal increases for Kano and Calabar (0.75%C to 1%C rise between 1945 and 1990).

2.2 DOWNSTREAM STUDIES

The analysis of downstream processes carried out indicates that coastal erosion, flooding, saltwater intrusion,
mangrove degradation and associated ecological disorders arising from these, are major problems isolated in
the Nigerian coastal zone. The other includes the socio—economic impacts of the above. As the future of SLR
is very uncertain, the scenario analysis of the impact of SLR has been estimated for four scenario schemes:
0.2, 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 m SLR by 2100 AD (Awosika et al, 1994; French et al, 1994) based on the aerial Video—
tape assisted vulnerability analysis (AVVA) (Leatherman et al, 1994). The study identified land lost due to
SLR, the population at risk, the economic value of the land lost and the cost of protection for land under
threat of loss.

2.3 THE MISSING LINKS IN COASTAL PROCESSES IMPACT ASSESSMENT

Despite the number of studies carried out on climate change and its impacts in Nigeria, a number of indices,
important in establishing an integrated coastal zone management criteria are still relatively not well under—
stood or monitored. These include:

(a) SCIENTIFIC DATA

The data required for modeling and monitoring climate change and associated impacts on coastal zone
includes:
Infrastructure Data
Ecological Data (land use, biodiversity, etc)
Eco—Zones Redistribution following erosion, saltwater intrusion, etc
Meteorological Data
Physico—Chemical Data of the Coastal Waters and Oceans
Geological/Mining Data
Oceanic/ Hydrological Data
Water Supply to the zone (precipitation, urban water supply, rivers feed, etc)
Sea water penetration modelling
Socio—Economic Data (population, rural—urban migration, urbanization, etc)

Volume 2: Country Studies Report m 45

 

(b) COMMUNICATION

The Federal Environmental Protection Agency (FEPA) is the sole agency responsible for the management of
the environment in Nigeria. However, FEPA is expected to draw specialized data/ information and technical
advise from the universities and other specialized federal and state agencies such as the Nigerian Institute of
Oceanographic and Marine Research (NIOMR), the Department of Meteorological Services, Geological
Survey Department, the Ministries of Works, Agriculture, Science and Technology, among others, and to
coordinate their research and monitoring activities in order that the database and capacity required for manag-
ing the environment can be realised. National survey shows that climate change studies may have commenced
in most of the relevant sectors in Nigeria. However, there is a general problem of communication in Nigeria
regarding what studies are on—going, and information exchange between the national experts and policy
makers. There also appears to be no clear relationship between FEPA and the monitoring/ specialized techni-
cal agencies and the universities. Hence, the majority of research activities so far carried out do not necessarily
get to the policy makers. The appointment of national technical agencies such as NIOMR to coordinate
certain activities in their areas of expertise may improve these problems.

(c) DATA MANAGEMENT AND DATA BANK

A national climate change data bank is not currently available in Nigeria. Such a data bank is required to
bring together all components of environmental research and monitoring. Inputs to the data bank is to be
made from various research and monitoring data carried out by different agencies in Nigeria and beyond. The
output is to serve the general scientific community, research centres, policy makers and the international
commumty.

3 ON—GOING RESEARCH ACTIVITIES AND MONITORING PROGRAMS

In an attempt to make better estimates of some of the missing data and to monitor directly some of the
indices of climate change, various upstream and downstream studies have been initiated by NIOMR, DMS
and research centres (inclusive of the universities). A chronology of these efforts are listed in Table 1.

4 IMPLICATIONS FOR ICZM IN NIGERIA

The above overview shows that some studies are in progress relevant to ICZM in Nigeria. In particular, a
vulnerability assessment of the Nigerian coast has been carried out, based on 4 SLR scenarios. This indicates
that a large fraction of the coastal areas and population are vulnerable to SLR. Additionally, the cost of
responding to the threat of SLR under different scenarios has been assayed. However there 18 a need for
improved capacity in areas where monitoring and data collection efforts have not reached advanced stage
Capacity building in the modelling of climate change from local and regional emissions are required

4.1 Modelling Requirement:

General circulation modelling to establish the likely change in climate in the coastal zone of Nigeria. Com-
parison of model results with local climate data. From model results and local data, establish the likely range
of SLR in the zone. Modeling of the response of the coastal zones physical and biological processes to SLR
will also add to improved capacity in understanding these processes, in order to provide the most cost—effec-
tive management approach.

4.2 Monitoring Requirement
Continuous monitoring of the ecological parameters likely to be affected by sea level rise. These include salt

water intrusion, coastal erosion, change in biodiversity and land use. The results of long term monitoring is
expected to adequately compliment model results, as well as a basis for calibration the models.

46 W Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

Table 1: Studies Being Carried Out in Nigeria Relevant to Coastal Zone Management

 

General Item

Studied/ Monitored

Specific Item

Agencies Studying

Perod Studied

 

Air Pollution

Emission Inventory

O.A.U.,Ile—Ife

1988, 1990 Model Years

 

Ambient Air Pollution:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term O.A.U.,lle—lfe 1989 to date
Long Term O.A.U.,Ile-Ife 1993 to date
Water Pollution Trace Elements Many Agencies Over 20 years
Hydrocarbons Many Agencies Over 20 years
Microbial Counts Many Agencies Over 20 years
Climate Data Land Surface Data DMS 100 years
Ocean Surface Data DMS, NIOMR Recent
Upper Air Data DMS Long term
Climate Change Emissions Inventory O.A.U., lle—lfe 1985 to 1990

 

Trace Gas Mixing
Values

O.A.U., Ile—Ife

1992 to date

 

Mitigation Analysis

O.A.U., Ile—Ife

1985, 1988, 1990

 

Sea Level Rise/ Storm
Surges

NIOMR

Recent

 

Meteorological Data

DMS, NIOMR, Others

Long Term Data

 

Oceanographic/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Coastal Resource Data Fisheries NIOMR, Univers1t1es Long term
Shoreline Evolution/ NIOMR, Universities Long-term
Coastal Eros10n
Biodiversity NIOMR’ FQRMECU’ P
and Univers1t1es
Ocean PhySICO_ NIOMR, Universities Recent
Chemistry
Other Ecological Data NIOMR, Universities Long term
Hydrological/ . Universities, Dept. of
Geological Geological Data Geological Survey
Ministry of Agric.
Water Supply Works, River Basin,
DMS, etc.
Socio—Economic Population NPC Long term
Settlements, etc. MWSLH Long term

 

 

 

 

 

Volume 2: Country Studies Report W 47

 

REFERENCES

IPCC (1995): Climate Change 1994: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change and An Evaluation of the IPCC
IS92 Emission Scenarios. J.T. Houghton, L. G. Meira Filho,J. Bruce, Hoesung Lee, B. A. Callander,
E. Haites, N. Harris and K. Maskel (eds). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. ISBN 0 521
55055 6.

Awosika, L. F. and A. C. Ibe (1991): The Nigerian Continental Shelf: Geomorphology, Dynamics and
Response to Climate Change, in: Global Climate Change and Coastal Resources and Installations in
Nigeria: Impacts and Response Measures,J. G. Tobor and A. C. Ibe (eds), Proceedings of Natioal
Seminar, 20—21 November, 1990, Lagos. ISBN 978—2345-092. p39—49.

Tobor,J. G. (1991): Welcome Address by Chairman, National Committeee on Oceanography in: Global
Climate Change and Coastal Resources and Installations in Nigeria: Impacts and Response Measures,
J. G. Tobor and A. C. Ibe (eds), Proceedings ofNatioal Seminar, 20—21 November, 1990, Lagos.
ISBN 978—2345—092. p1-3.

Obioh, I. B. (1995): Inventorization and Modelling of the Emission of Greenhouse Pollutants in Nigeria.
Ph.D Thesis, Department of Physics, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile—Ife, Nigeria.

Obioh, I. B. and A. O. Adegbulugbe (1996): Greenhouse Gases Emission Reduction in Nigeria: Least Cost
Reduction Strategies and Macroeconomic Impacts — Volume 2 (National Greenhouse Gases Emission
Inventory). Project Report (EPA Contract 68—W6—0029, WAl), submitted to the US Country
Studies Program, Washington, DC 2009.

French, G. T., L. F. Awosika and C. E. Ibe (1994): Sea—Level Rise in Nigeria: Potential Impacts and Conse—
quences.Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No 14 (June, 1994).

Awosika, L. F., G. T. French, R. J. Nicholls and C. E. Ibe (1994). Impacts of Sea—Level Rise on the Coastline
of Nigeria. Proceedings of the Rising Challenge of the Sea (March 1992), Margarita Island, Venezu—

ela, (in press).

Ibe, A. C., L. E. Inegbedion, F. O. A. Egberongbe and S. Orupabo (1989). On—line Beach Evolution Model
for Nigerian Shoreline — A Case Study of Victoria Island Beach, Lagos. Nigerian Institute of
Oceanographic and Marine Research, Lagos, Technical Paper No. 49.

Leatherman, S. P., R. J. Nicholls, and K. C. Dennise (1994): Aerial Videotape—Assisted Vulnerability Analysis:
A Cost-Effective Approach to Assess Sea Level Rise,Journal of Coastal Research. 142(Sept 2, 1994).

48 l Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

 

AN OVERVIEW ON OMAN
COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT PLAN

Salim Abdullah Al—Jufaili

Ministry of Regional Municipalities and Environment
Muscat, Oman

Introduction

The2 Sultanate of Oman 18 located at southern- east part of Arabian Peninsula and has an area of
309, 000 ka T.he Sultanate of Oman possesses 1, 700 km of magnificent and unique coastline. It varies
dramatically— from the 500 metre high cliffs of Musandam, to the outwash plains of the Batinah— from
impressive headlands 0f Muscat, to the wave washed beaches of the Wahiba sands— from the immense dunes
of Marbat, to the towering cliffs of Mughsayl in the Dhofar. It is a shoreline formed by massive movements of
the earth’s crust and shaped by the power of the sea surrounding the Sultanate. Its shoreline beaches are made
of coral, shell and sands carried to the coast from the mountains, offering some of the most spectacular
beaches in the world. The coastal zone of Oman has special socio—economic significance, being a centre of
population and economic activity. A large majority (about 70%) of the total population of 2 million live in
the coastal zone.

Oceanographically, the coastline is divided into two sections. The south Arabian Sea coastline, which
is affected by the summer South West Monsoon/winter North East Monsoon and the north Gulf of Oman
coastline which is only affected by the winter North East Monsoon. The summer South West Monsoon
brings strong winds to the southern coastline of Oman south of Ras Al Hadd and these strong winds blowing
parallel to the coast induce upwelling of nutrient rich deep water from May through to September.

North of Ras al Hadd, the coastline is composed of rocky shores with scattered coral and sandy plains.
Whereas south of Ras al Hadd, while similar geomorphological conditions exist, the upwelling of nutrient
rich water during the summer produces conditions suitable for the rapid growth of seasonal macroalgae beds.
This is a unique feature of this part of the coastline. Mixed assemblages then exist for a period of corals and
macroalgae.

Coastal Zone Management in Oman

Preparation of Coastal Zone Management Plans for specific regions of Oman has progressed well.
The work was undertaken by the IUCN for the Ministry of Commerce and Industry between 1984 and 1991
following detailed surveys of the coastal environment and uses of the coast. After completion of the individual
plans a framework for a national coastal zone management programme was produced.

Implementation of the Coastal Zone Management Plans
The Ministry of Regional Municipalities and Environment has the responsibility for implementation

of the coastal zone management plans but suffers a shortage of qualified personnel and funds and, on its own,
does not have the capability to implement coastal zone management. Until a strong coastal zone management

Volume 2: Country Studies Report I 49

 

institution is established, the responsibility for implementation is being shared amongst the concerned gov—
ernment authorities. These authorities include the Ministry of Regional Municipalities and Environment, the
Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Agriculture and Fisheries, Communications, Housing, the Supreme
Committee for Town Planning and the Development Council. Overlapping planning roles of the various
authorities and specific ministerial priority interests are creating many difficulties. Coordination between the
authorities is a major problem.

Priorities for Coastal Zone Management in the Sultanate of Oman

The highest priority for coastal zone management in Oman is to use such management to prevent
further degradation of the coastal environments by establishing appropriate safeguards. These safeguards are
at the present time as follows:

1. Designation of National Coastal Zone Nature Reserves and establishment of individual manage-
ment plans with associated infrastructure such as ranger protection.

2. Promulgation of “SETBACK” policy and regulations in respect of coastal development.

3. The requirement for detailed Environmental Impact Assessments for all coastal zone development
projects.

Oman Coastal Zone Management and Planning for Climate Change Through Integrated Coastal Zone
Management

As has been stated previously the implementation of already produced coastal zone management
plans is proving difficult in Oman. The implications of climate change are, however, already impinging on
programme development as erosion of the coastline of Oman gains momentum and coral reefs suffer bleach—
ing, cancerous growths and disease.

Coastal Erosion in Oman

Geomorphic evidence indicates that the coastal regions of Oman are either techtonically stable or
uplifting at a very slow rate. There is evidence that 6000 years ago the coastal land mass was 1.5 to 2 metres
below its current level. The evidence of this lower coastline is in the form of old raised beach ridges that can
be seen throughout Oman. Such continued uplifting of the coastline might on its own negate the affects of
sea level rise. A complication has, however, arisen in Oman due to the cutting off of the supply of sediment to
the shoreline by coastal development and groundwater recharge dams. Loss of beachface of the order of 0.6
meters per annum is common along the northern coastline of Oman and the rate of loss is considered to be
accelerating. With much of the coastal zone only a meter to a few meters above the highest high tides there is
increasing concern over the possible results of sea level rise.

Coral reefs in Oman

At the present time Oman is completing a national Coral Reef Management Plan which forms part
of the overall Framework for a national coastal zone management programme. As part of this plan all the
coral reefs were rapidly resurveyed between January to June 1996 (they had previously been comprehensively
surveyed during the IUCN Project).

Disturbing evidence of possible damage to the reefs due to increased UV penetration or elevated or
depressed temperature effects were noted. The corals of Oman live on the borderline of their ecological niche.
In the north of Oman sea surface temperatures can reach 40 degrees centigrade in the summer and may fall to

50 I Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

19 degrees centigrade within days following a period of high winds due to upwelling of deep water. In the
south during the South West Monsoon the corals are exposed to sea surface temperatures for several months
of about 21 to 22 degrees centigrade. Borderline temperatures for their continued existence. Should anything.
disturb the present temperature situation by a few degrees either up or down the corals would be pushed
beyond the boundaries of their temperature tolerance and become extinct in Omani waters. Bleaching of
corals in Omani waters appears to be becoming more common and is attributed to temperature effects al-
though this is as yet unproved.

The recognition of corals affected by cancerous growths is also of considerable concern. No explana—
tion for such growths has been forthcoming to date but increased UV penetration has been postulated.

Monitoring in Oman

Two tidal gauges station one at Mina Sultan Qiboos, Muscat, and the other one at Mina Raysut,
Salalah, have been designated as a GLOSS station (Global Sea Level Observing System). No monitoring of
vertical movement of the land mass is, however, taking place so absolute sea level rise cannot be determined at
this time.

Volume 2: Country Studies Report m 51

 

 

‘ W PHILIPPINES

CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT PROCESS:
COASTAL RESOURCES SECTOR (PHILIPPINES)

ROSA T. PEREZ, Ph. D.

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)

(106201] City, Philippines

1. Introduction

Accelerated sea level rise (ASLR) during the next century is one of the most certain outcomes of
human-induced global climate change. With its long coastline of 18,000 kilometers, the Philippines takes a
serious view of the potential effects and possible responses to ASLR. The physical effects of sea level rise
include: inundation (submergence) of low lying wetland and dry land areas, erosion, salt water intrusion into
estuaries and aquifers, higher water tables and increased risk of flooding and storm damages. In turn, these
physical changes may have substantial socio—economic losses such as loss of coastal structures, both natural
and man—made; and, dislocation of the population and change of livelihood. The same physical changes may
bring about certain ecological consequences such as redistribution of wetlands; destruction of coral reefs;
reduction in biological diversity and wildlife extinction; and, changes in biophysical and biochemical proper-
ties of the coastal zones. These unwanted changes may necessitate a range of possible responses such as
construction of seawalls and dikes, upgrade of coastal infrastructure to consider high water levels, relocation of
coastal populations, mangrove regeneration or other options.

2. The present study

While detailed impact assessments have been conducted by industrialized nations, much less evalua—
tion is being undertaken by developing countries. One of these projects is currently being undertaken by the
Philippine Country Study to Address Climate Change through one of its study elements: Vulnerability
Assessments and Evaluation of Adaptations on Coastal Resources Due to Accelerated Sea Level Rise. This
is funded by the Government of the United States. The objectives of this study element are: (1) to study the
possible effects of accelerated sea level rise (ASLR) on the coastal ecosystem; (2) to examine the possible
effects of ASLR on socio—economic structures and activities in the coastal areas; (3) to formulate response
strategies by identifying potential costs and benefits; (4) to identify needed actions to develop a long term
coastal zone management plan; (5) to develop the capability to apply the methodology to other areas in the
Philippines; and, (6) to brief policy / decision makers on the vulnerability of the Philippines to ASLR and the
urgent need to mitigate or adapt to climate change.

Prior to the selection of the final study area, a screening process on several coastal communities in the
Philippines was done to evaluate the extent of the physical effects and natural systems responses to sea level
changes. Also considered were the availability of necessary data and the strategic location of the area. Only
five locations in the Whole archipelago take measurement of sea level rise (refer to Figures 1 and 2). These are

52 i Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

Manila, Legazpi, Davao, Cebu and Jolo.

The present study considers the Manila Bay coastal area (Figures 1 and 3) for evaluation of possible
consequences of accelerated sea—level rise in the context of climate change; and, to draw adaptive responses to
such threats. The highly enclosed Bay is bounded by the provinces of Bataan, Pampanga, Bulacan and
Cavite; and, some of the municipalities of Metro Manila along the eastern side. This coastal region with a
perimeter of 800 kilometers, is considered important to commercial, industrial, agricultural and aquacultural
activities of the Philippines, with Metro Manila as the seat of the national government and the other prov—
inces among the constituents of regional political groupings. The increasing trend in mean sea—level has
been observed since 1965 and continues today. The Bay area is already subjected to several hazards including
flooding and storm surges during the occurrences of tropical cyclones. Shoreline changes due to reclamation
for housing, ports, coastal roads, buildings and other urbanized developments is high, adding to an increased
threat of inundation. To evaluate vulnerability, sea—level rise has been projected for the year 2100 with values
of 0.3 meter and 1.0 meter to represent the low and high estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli—
mate Change (IPCC), and 2.0 meters for a worst case scenario. Selection of appropriate responses is deter—
mined in terms of expected vulnerability, costs, land use and other socio—political and legal considerations.
Partial results show that the Bay area is vulnerable to ASLR both physically and socio—economically.

3. Methodology

The methodology being followed is essentially that of the seven steps or “Common Methodology” of
the Coastal Zone Management Sub—group (CZMS) of the IPCC (IPCC, 1991). These are: (1) the delinea—
tion of the study area and specification of sea level rise boundary conditions; (2) inventory of the physical and
socioeconomic data; (3) identification of relevant development factors; (4) assessment of physical changes and
natural systems responses; (5) assessment of vulnerability and interpretation of results; (6) formulation of
response strategies; and, (7) identification of needs and actions.

3.] VulnerabilityAnalysis. Among the most important sources of data for the vulnerability assessment of the
impacts of ASLR in coastal areas are topographic and bathymetric maps. For most developing nations, high
resolution maps are very difficult to obtain if they exist at all. Most maps have 10 to 100 meter contour
intervals, which are virtually useless when analyzing the prescribed scenarios. Traditional photogrammetric
approaches appear to be costly, both in terms of funds available and time allocated for the vulnerability
analysis and assessment of adaptations. Satellite imagery can also be very expensive.

A technique developed by Leatherman et. a]. (1995) called the Aerial Video-assisted Vulnerability
Analysis (AVVA) was adopted by the present country study. In effect, this technique provides information
for steps (3) to (6) of the IPCC common methodology. The AVVA is a reconnaissance level assessment of the
implications of land use in response to sea level rise. The AVVA involves: (a) unrectified oblique aerial
Video—recording of the coastal area taken from a height of 50 to 500 meters, (b) limited ground truth
information, (c) archival research, ((1) analysis of the data in conjunction with simple land loss and
response models.

Base Maps. The finest resolution maps used in this study have a scale of 1:10,000 with 4.0 m contour lines and
spot heights. Similarly scaled land used maps were also obtained.

Aerial survey. A helicopter was flown over the area of the Manila Bay coastline. The first low level pass was
taken at 75 meters altitude from Bataan to Cavite and back. The 300 meters level survey has to be suspended
due to heavy air-traffic in the area. The survey included still pictures and 8 mm video coverage. Locations
were established using a Global Positioning System (GPS).

Ground Truth Measurements. The main objective of the field survey was to delineate the specified boundary

Volume 2: Country Studies Report I 53

 

conditions for the ASLR scenarios: 0.3, 1.0 and 2.0 meters contours along the coast, and the major changes
that occurred therein since the last updating of the topographic maps of the area. The main work consisted
of establishing geodetic controls (points of known geographic positions and elevations) along the coast spaced
approximately at 2.5 kilometers. Supplementary controls were established in areas of low elevations extending
significantly inland.

Ground profiling was also done where spot heights were obtained. The spacing of spot heights
depended largely on the nature of the terrain (i.e. closely—spaced heights for steep slope). The heights and
positions of these spot heights were then plotted on survey forms to obtain the 0.3~meter and 1.0—meter
contours. The 2—meter contour was drawn by interpolating existing maps.

3.2 Results. The aerial survey confirmed several types of coastal environment which are evident in the Manila
Bay area. These are the brushland / industrial environment of Southern Bataan; agro—aquacultural environ—
ment of Bataan — Pampanga coasts; aquacultural and urban environment of Bulacan and Northern Metro
Manila; highly urbanized environment of Metro Manila; tourism and agro-aquacultural environment of
Cavite; and, the natural environment of Southern Cavite.

Initial observations also revealed erosion at the Bataan coasts and other shoreline changes due to
reclamation for various land usage, especially in the Manila — Cavite areas. The presence of shanties along the
river deltas of Bataan, Bulacan and Metro Manila raised its vulnerability. Some of the houses can be seen
built in the water. The river outlets to the Bay from Pampanga and Bulacan is heavily silted with lahar
deposits from the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption.

There was extensive land reclamation for fishponds along the coasts of Southern Bulacan. Previously,
the Department of Agriculture viewed this practice negatively as it posed serious environmental effects. The
Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources had cancelled foreshore leases or permits for ponding along
Manila Bay in 1967.

Only two areas within the Bay were identified as forested. These are the extreme ends of Manila Bay
in Bataan (Mariveles) and in Cavite (Marogondon). Metro Manila shorelines has been greatly restructured
due to high level of urbanization. The area is almost devoid of natural vegetation, an indication that extensive
developments for economic activities have been carried out. This is also the only place along the Bay’s coast—
line where physical protection structures are noticeable.

The agricultural lands (ricefields) of Cavite are mostly near the shore, while that of Bataan and
Bulacan are landward of the fishponds. Most of the coast in the northern portion of the Bay are character—
ized by muddy substrate, while towards the south, the shores have sandy substrate.

Shoreline changes due to reclamation for urbanized developments are quite significant over
Paranaque (residential subdivisions), Pasay (Cultural Center of the Philippines Complex), Las Pinas—Cavite
(coastal road). Erosions is mostly in the beach areas of Cavite, most probably due to sand quarrying, and in
some abandoned fishponds of Bulacan.

Data from the Public Estates Development showed that a total of 17.74 square kilometers for the
whole coast of Manila Bay for the last 40 years. This figure is further broken—down into 8.16 sq. km. for
fishpond development and 9.28 sq. km. for urbanized developments such as settlement areas, road network
expansion, port facilities development and institutional/recreational complex.

The socio—economic survey revealed low economic status of most coastal communities as shown by
the types of dwelling units, household amenities and low income. Most of the inhabitants depended upon the
sea resources as the main source of living.

Resource problems in the bay area is high as evident by illegal and destructive fishing practices and
poor health sanitation of the coastal households in general. Directly or indirectly, some factors identified
with the misuse of resources are: low environmental awareness and concern, and ineffective enforcement of

54 W Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

laws.

Based on physical evidences (Figure 4) and socio—economic surveys, it is evident that a large part of
the Manila Bay area is highly vulnerable to accelerated sea—level—rise.

4. Implications for coastal zone management practices

The above results were in many occasions, presented to different heads of local government units and
non—governmental organizations. It was recognized that the selection of the appropriate response will depend
on site specific costs, land use and coastal infrastructure. Some issues and concerns identified for consideration

in responding to ASLR are as follows:

(1)
(2)

(7)

(8)

Assessment of the costs involved in the responses.

Assuming that coastal resources can not be protected because of the high costs of protection, the
main political factor to be considered is the necessity to relocate people and infrastructures likely
to be affected by ASLR. The big question : Is the government equipped with the right policies

or laws to do so?

Adoption of policies and laws restricting habitation and investment in vulnerable areas may be
necessary.

Public education about the coastal environment to sensitize the government and the people about
the issues involved and the danger and possible solutions.

Any rise in sea level will likely increase the level of flooding both in magnitude and duration.
Major development projects such as flood protection embankments or levees have to address these
problems.

Execution of basic researches aiming at a better understanding of coastal processes, rational use of
coastal resources such as mangrove and coral reefs and coastal protection is needed.

Dislocation of people and changes in livelihood. At the turn of the century, it will not be uncom—
mon to hear about the so-called environmental refugees. Responsible agencies must be ready to
intervene.

Long term development in the context of an integrated coastal zone management must be put in
order by all agencies concerned. Some coastal management issues which address sea level rise :

' Management of shoreline flood plain hazards to include protection of life and property,
evacuation planning and protective works.

' Prevention of salt water intrusion through judicious use of fresh water.

' Preservation of public access and regulation of recreation areas.

° Protection of people and economies at risk, and conservation of wetlands, estuaries and

nearshore habitats.

' Planning the exploitation of natural resources like ground water, sand and corals.

5. Conclusion:

From preliminary results of the study, the Manila Bay area is highly vulnerable to ASLR, both from
physical and socio—economic point of views. It must be realized that there is a long lead time to transform a
policy into reality. Climate change impacts must be incorporated in long term planning and integrated into
coastal resource management plans. Implementing an integrated coastal resource management program in a
nationally strategic area like Manila Bay is an enormous task which will require an effective mechanism that

Volume 2: Country Studies Report I 55

could ensure the sustainability and success of such a program. One step is for the government to put up a
coordinating council since the Bay area does not fall under one single political jurisdiction. This council shall
hopefully harmonize the divergent uses of the Bay, address and settle the issues at hand and serve as a venue
for a workable compromise between development and environmental protection.

6. References:

Leatherman, 5., R]. Nicholls and K. C. Dennis, 1995: Aerial Video-Assisted Vulnerability Analysis: A Cost
Effective Approach to Asses Sea—Level Rise Impacts. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No.

14, CERF

Perez, R.T., R. Feir, E. Carandang and E. Gonzalez,, September 1996: “Potential Impacts of Accelerated
Sea—Level Rise on the Coastal Resources of Manila Bay: A Preliminary” ,Water, Air and Soil Pollu—

tion Journal, 92/1-2, pp. 137 — 147.

IPCC, March 1992: Global Climate Change and Rising Challenge of the Sea, IPCC Response Strategies
Working Group on CZM Subgroup.

Dep’t. of Agriculture, Fisheries Sector Program, 1992: Socio—economic and Investment Opportunities in

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

    
   

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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56 W Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

 

 

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Volume 2: Country Studies Report m 57

 

Figure 4: Projected sea level rise in Cavila and Las Pinas

 

 
    
    
    
    
   
  

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58 I Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

 

SENEGAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: A STEP AHEAD

Dr. Isabelle Niang—Diop
University CA. Diop
Dakar—Fann, Senegal

In 1990 a global vulnerability analysis of the Senegalese coastline to accelerated sea level rise was
funded by the US. Environmental Protection Agency. The study was conducted with researchers from the
University of Maryland. After an initial presentation of the results in Margarita Island (Niang—Diop at a].
1994), the final results were published in a special issue of the Journal of Coastal Research (Dennis et 51].,
1995).

The Netherlands will fund a new study of coastal zone vulnerability to climate change during
1997—1998. With this new study we will be able to analyze more deeply the vulnerability of our coastal zone
through two case studies.

Main results and limitations of the global vulnerability assessment

This first global vulnerability analysis used the aerial video tape recording, method (Leathemman et
52]., 1995; Nicholls et a]. J 995 j as a cheap way to obtain a good deal of up to date information about the
coastline. Then, together with other data collection, we used the Common Methodology (Bijlsma 62‘ 51]., 1991)
and all the steps, except the third have been examined (identification of relevant development factors).

The main results are the followings:

— The land at risk either by coastal erosion or by inundation of low lying areas will represent between
0.2 to 3.4% of the total land area. Increases of the losses (more than 95%) will be due to inundation, especially
estuaries, which will lose all of their mangrove area (9,100 km2) with a 1 m sea level rise by 2100. The small
percentage of beach losses from coastal erosion must be appreciated understanding that most beaches are used
for tourism activities.

— Capital value at risk will represent about 9 to 11% of the 1990 GNP of Senegal for a 0.5m sea level.
This estimation only accounted buildings. Population at risk, for the same scenario, would be 69,000 to

104,000 people (about 1% of the 1990 population).

— The costs of protection indicate that only the protection of important areas will be feasible. (70 Km
of coastline will be concerned). Furthermore, the beach nourishment will represent 70 to 90% of the protec—
tion costs. This global vulnerability analysis proved that the Senegal littoral zone will be vulnerable to an
accelerated sea level rise not because it is a low lying country, but because most of the economic activities and
population are concentrated along the coast. Moreover, the eventuality that most mangroves could disappear
with a 1m sea level rise increases the vulnerability of the coastal zone even if we were not able to value this
type of ecological loss. On another side, if Senegal decided to protect its coast it will represent a serious
burden on its economy.

Volume 2: Country Studies Report M 59

 

What have been the limitations of this studv?

The limitations I will speak about have been underlined in the paper. They were mostly due to limited
data and use of few expert judgment. The most important limitations are:

— The lack of precise topographic maps (most of them have a 5 meter contour interval). The behavior
of mangroves has been estimated with a relatively linear model including a threshold rate of sea level rise of
1m inducing complete disappearance of the mangrove.

- The values at risk have been estimated taking only in consideration buildings: agricultural land,
infrastructures (in particular the harbors), and mangrove were not included.

- The population at risk also has been estimated using the number and type of buildings and assessing
an occupancy of 10 people per 100m2 (80% of the building being primary residences).

— The costs of beach nourishment have been calculated using US rates. They didn’t take in account
the lack of technology in Senegal.

Moreover, as previously stated all the estimations were made using static scenarios, and didn’t consider
future economic development and population growth. Also some other sea level rise implications have not
been included (eg. salt water intrusion in aquifers).

Future vulnerability assessment

The Netherlands will fund a second vulnerability assessment of the Senegalese coastline. This new
study must be viewed as a step forward in the understanding of the vulnerability of the coastline to climate
change. To do this, improvements in the methodology will be made.

1. Two case studies will be conducted in detail, one on the Dakar Peninsula, the other on the Saloum
estuary. The first zone has been chosen because it is where the capital is located, as well as the main industrial
activities, infrastructures and population are concentrated. This region also contains a special ecosystem, the
niayes where a majority of commercial agriculture is located. This zone is already suffering from coastal
erosion and seaways have been built, for example, in Rufisque. The second zone is the Saloum estuary. It is
characterized by a mangrove ecosystem that consists of numerous islands located behind the Pointe de
Sangomar sand spit. It is a very low lying area, with problems of coastal erosion along the spit. The mangrove
is low, and experiencing desertification, reducing its development. One interesting point for our study is that
due to spit breaching in 1987 the mangrove faced a rapid sea level rise. So this locale provides an opportunity
to study the effects of sea level rise on mangroves.

2. These two case studies will be conducted by a interdisciplinary team of Senegalese experts, most of
them involved in coastal zone studies. For the first time an economist, lawyer and sociologist will be involved
in a vulnerability analysis of the coastal zone.

3. We will use the results of a regional climate model for future expected temperature and precipita—
tion. These will be used specially for the estimation of the ecosystem responses (mangrove and niayes ) as well
as for the modeling of coastal aquifers. We will also consider the eventual changes in the coastal upwelling,
which is responsible for the good productivity of our waters.

4. We will have land use maps from satellite imagery and better topographic maps. And we will have
GIS tools to aggregate information.

60 W Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

5. A complete economic evaluation will be made including the elaboration of scenarios for the popu—
lation and economic growth for the next 30 years.

6. An assessment of the different constraints to the implementation of response strategies will be
made.

7. Other response or adaptation strategies will be evaluated based on the experiences we have, for
example, on aforestation (to combat the desperation of niayes) or on reutilization of saline soils for agriculture.

With these dynamics we think we will more precisely approach the question of vulnerability of our
coastal zone to climate change.

Just one more question

The question of tools we used. I would like here to point out one tool we used to estimate coastal
erosion which is the Bruun Rule. My own experience of using the Brunn rule, is that it doesn’t fully explain
erosion. In Rufisque for example, the coastal erosion deduced from this rule explains no more than 20% of the
observed coastal erosion. That is to say other more important factors, certainly of human origin, are respon-
sible for a great part of coastal erosion. So using only the Bruun Rule can signify that we are underestimating
the rate of coastal erosion that will be happening in the future.

Volume 2: Country Studies Report m 61

 

 

SRI LANKA
COUNTRY PAPER — SRI LANKA

H.N.R. Perera
Coast Conservation Department

Colombo, Sri Lanka

1.0 Introduction

Sri Lanka is an island country in the Indian Ocean with
a coastline of 1585 km, geographically located between 5055’ and
9051’ N and 79041’ and 810 54’ E.

Economic and Administrative Significance

Administratively, the country is divided into nine
provinces, five of which are coastal. These provinces are further
subdivided into 14 districts which in turn are delineated into 67
Divisional Secretariats. The maximum width of any of the above
mentioned divisions exceeds 50 km, and is an ideal unit for
considering the implications of impacts on the coastal area.

This coastal area—defined as coterminous with the 67 Divisional

 

sm LANKI
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Secretariats (the smallest unit of administrative). The following illustrates the economic significance

of the coastal zone.

It contains :

° 24 percent of the land area and 32 percent of the 1981 population;

' About 65 percent of the urbanized land area;
° Approximately 80 percent of the hotel rooms;

' Fisheries that produce about 30 percent of the animal protein crucial to the diet of the populace

and nearly 80 percent of the annual fish production;
° About 67 percent of the nation’s industrial facilities;

° Habitats critical to the sustained production of fisheries, the maintenance of good water quality,

and scenic values important to both residents and tourists; and

° Rich biodiversity reserves including coral reefs, seagrass beds and mangroves.

Coastal areas are increasingly threatened by natural processes such as storm surges that cause severe
coastal erosion along portions of the southwest coast. They are also threatened by human activities
that increase erosion and pollution, and degrade valuable habitats that serve as a source of food and

livelihood for many coastal residents.

Physical features

A major part of the coastline of the country in particular south of Kokilai on the east, and all of the

south coast, is characterized by rocky headlands.

62 I Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

 

The northwestern coastline from Negombo to Mannar is susceptible to rapid change becuase
it is of more recent origin (younger quaternary). This stretch of coastline in most instances, is straight
with adjacent low lying hinterland, mostly of alluvial deposits, dotted with lagoons and flat marshes.

Nearshore/ Offshore features

The coast line consists of a territorial limit, extending 12 nautical miles, a contiguous zone
from 12-84 nautical miles, and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) extending from 24-200 nautical
miles.

The continental shelf is on the average 20.0 km wide and 20—65 m deep. The narrowest being at
Kalpitiya, where the width is only 2.0 km. The continental slope is very steep, with depths ranging
from 1500 m to 3000 m seaward of the shelf break. The shelf itself is lacerated with numerous
canyons and valleys with the Trincomalee submarine canyon being one of the twenty largest in the
world .

The nearshore zone is characterized by the occurrence of reefs which, by themselves, can be divided
into three major categories ( i.e., coral sandstone, and crystalline rock (boulder) reefs).

Wave Climate

The offshore wave climate that is of direct importance to this sector of coastline, is predominantly
dependent on the southwest (May - Sept), and the Northeast (Nov. — Feb.) monsoons.

In February 1989, a Directional wave buoy was installed in 70 m water depths approx. 8.0 km off—
shore of Galle under a wave measuring programme of the GTZ/CCD Coast Conservation Project.
With the aid of this instrument, continuous wave measurement were taken of both the wave height
as well as the wave directions. This measuring programme continued with nearly 90% data coverage

until September 1996.

The inferences made from this study show that the offshore wave climate can be split up into two
distinctive sub groups ie:.
a) Swell and b) wind waves

Swell originate from storms occurring in the southern hemisphere, with individual fetch exceeding
1000 km. These waves are of a constant nature with significant wave heights not exceeding 1.5 m
and with an angle of approach of 195" 225 "

Wind wave (sea), can be attributed to locally generated storms. These waves have a wide distribution
and are mostly significant during the southwest monsoon period. They have a range of up to 4.5 m.

Generally, all year long a strong swell with a rather constant southerly direction can be noticed,
superposed by a sea as a result of the local monsoonal wind fetch. During the southwest monsoon
period the direction varies between southwest and west, whilst the directions during the balance
period are generally S—SE.

Storm Surge

Storm surges, or an incremental rise in sea level, are primarily due to the flooding induced by wind
stresses and the barometric pressure reduction associated with tropical storms. In the southwest
coastline, the effect of a storm surge occurring mostly 1n the Southwest monsoon, gives rise to higher
incidental waves approaching the coastline, especially, 1n areas where there are protective submerged
reefs.

Studies have shown that the maximum surge due to storms that can occur is 0.30 m above still water
level.

Volume 2: Country Studies Report I 63

 

Tides

Sri Lanka’s tides are weak, typically semidiurnal, having a period of 12h 25 m — and has a mean tidal
range of 0.30 m, with 0.2 m around neap and 0.60 m around springs.

The Sri Lanka Ports Authority Tidal recording station at Colombo, has compiled data from 1949.
Beaches

Sri Lankan coasts can be classified as having a predominantly sandy beaches, dotted by rocky head—
lands. It is of great significance that there are only very few stretches of coastline that are solely
fronted by rocky headlands or barriers.

The evolution of such beaches, are to a very large extent, due to the transport of sediment from the
hinterland via the river systems. These sediment have, in Geological time frames, formed the sandy
coastline of the present. The West and Southwestern coastlines are fed by some of the major river
based sediment sources in the country.

The exposed beach rock, and the nearshore sediment reefs, found north of Colombo is an example
of this evolution. Furthermore, differences in the types and quantities of sediment available, and the
intensity of the forces moving them, resulted in the different types of shorelines. These will lead to
natural slopes ranging from 3"—7"

Additionally, along the southwest and south coastlines, estuaries and lagoons having sand spits which
fluctuate during periods of high rainfall are also found. Most significant being the Maha Oya, Kalu
Gange, Gin Ganga and the Bentara Ganga. These spits, ranging from 1.5 m above MSL to 2.5
MSL and widths from 50 m and over, have been subject to significant periodic fluctuations.

Erosion Trends

As stated above, the beaches are supplied with material brought down by rivers, coral reefs and in
some cases from adjacent eroding shore fronts. A combination of waves, currents and winds are the
natural forces which move this sand along the beach offshore and onshore.

When the average long—term supply of material reaching the coastline is lower than the material
moving out of the area, coast erosion occurs.

Coast Erosion can be scientifically defined as a net recession of land. In a stable beach the supply and
losses balance each other. The temporary loss of a sand buffer, such as a part of a dune, due to an
extreme event results only in temporary loss of stability and temporary recession.

In general, the stretch of coastline from Maha Oya to Dondra has been subject to coastal erosion over
a long period. Evidence of this can be observed from past records and maps.

The causes that contribute towards erosion can be classified as follows:

Natural causes - longterm changes in climatic conditions, migration of river outlets. Rise of sea level
and subsidence of land.

Human Activities — sand mining from rivers and coast destruction of barrier reefs, dredging or
reclamation and improperly designed coastal structures.

64 M Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

Coastal Erosion and Accretion Rates in Sri Lanka

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

. Erosion Erosion Accretion . Net Net loss
. . Coastline Accretion .
Sector District percent rate percent of er051on 100
(km) rate (m/yr) 3

of coast (m/yr) coast (m/yr) (m /yr)
West Puttalam 300 30-40 0.3-0.4 30-60 0-0.1 0.2—0.4 60-120
Gampaha 40 45-50 NA-1.0 10-20 0-0.1 0.9-1.0 35-40
South West Colombo 40 20-25 0—0.1 NA NA 0—0.1 0—5
Kalutara 40 70-80 0.1-0.5 20-30 0-0.1 0—0.4 10-20
Galle 75 60-65 NA—0.3 0-10 0-0.1 0.2—0.3 10-20
South Matara 55 NA-88 0.9—1.0 NA NA 0.9—1.0 40-50
Hambantota 135 40-50 NA—0.2 10-20 0-0.1 0.1-0.2 20-30
East Amparai 110 40—50 NA-0.2 10-20 0-0.1 0.1-0.2 20-25
Batticaloa 100 NA—60 0.1-0.2 NA-ZO 0-0.1 0-0.2 10-20
North East Trincomalee 210 NA—40 NA-0.2 10-20 0.2-0.3 NA—O 10-0
Mullativu 50 20—30 NA-0.2 0-20 0.2-0.3 0-0.1 0-10
North Jaffna 275 60-70 NA-0.3 0-20 0.1 0.2-0.3 30-90
Mannar 155 60-70 NA—0.5 0-20 0.2 0.3-0.5 70-80
All Country 1,585 45-55 0.30-0.35 10—25 0—1.5 0.2-0.35 300—500

 

 

 

Of all of the above, the one major factor that has contributed to erosion is the ongoing human

activities which have influenced the coastal system.

Some of these activities are listed below.

2.0

Sri Lanka Coastal Zone Management strategies have evolved over the past 20 years. In 1981
a Coast Conservation Law (CCD Act 57) was enacted in Parliament, with a subsequent amendment

a) Mining of sand from rivers and coasts.
b) Destruction of natural barriers such as coral reefs.
c) The improperly designed maritime structures such as outlet

control structures for flood drainage.

Coastal Zone Management Efforts

in 1988. The first Coastal Zone Management Plan was finalized and came into operation in 1990.
The first revision of this plan has been just concluded. The draft is being prepared for public com—

ments and the revised plan is expected to come into operation in March 1997, when the approval of

the Cabinet of Ministers is given.

While this plan was being implemented, the Department also felt the need for ‘grass root’
level planning and community based participatory management. Special area plans were drawn up for

two key areas as an experimental basis, which had critical environment issues, such as coral mining,

and loss of lagoon habitat. These planning strategies have proven to be very successful, with a high
degree of people’s participation. Interagency coordination among local and national executing

 

Volume 2: Country Studies Report W 65

 

authorities, was found to be very successful. The success of this plan has resulted in the Department
adopting special area planning in its planning processes for the future. For these areas, the depart—
ment intends to adopt collaborative management practices where day to day management and moni—
toring will be conducted by the local communities while the department will provide the necessary
legal and administrative coverage to the management guidelines.

References
Coast Conservation Department (1990) - Coast Zone Management Plan.

Olsen. S.et al (1992) Coast 2 000: A Resource Management Strategy for Sri Lanka ‘5 Coastal Re-
gion..

Coast Conservation Department (1988) Sri Lanka’s Coastal Habitats ; Geographical Location and
extent.

Netherlands Economic Institute (NEI) (Sept 1992) - National Sand Study Phase 1.
Perera, H.N.R.(Feb. 1992) Reduction of Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise — Country Paper Sri Lanka.

Dayananda, Dr. H.V. (1992) - Shoreline Erosion in Sri Lanka’s Coastline Coast Conservation
Department.

Scheffer, Dr.H.].,Fittschen, Perera ].A.S.C (1992)CCD /GTZ Coast Conservation Project. Sediment
Transport Study for the Southwest Coast of Sri Lanka.

Coast Conservation Department (1986) — Master Plan for Coast Erosion Management in Sri Lanka.
Coast Conservation Department (1996) — Draft Revised Coastal Zone Management Plan 1997 .

Perera, H.N.R. , Sadacharan. D. (1994) — Climate Change in Asia — Impacts of sea Level Rise —
Country Report Sri Lanka — Asian Development Bank.

66 I Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

 

SURINAME

SOURCES AND IMPACTS OF THE
CLIMATE CHANGE IN SURINAME

Dr. S. Naipal
Hydraulic Research Division
Ministry of Public Works

Paramaribo, Suriname
Coastal Zone Study of Suriname

Climate change is recognized as a potentially major threat to the world’s environment and economic develop—
ment. This growing concern led to the signing of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in
1992 in Rio de Janeiro, of which Suriname has singed.

In this way Suriname is trying, with the help of, in this particular case, Holland, to enforce a study in the area
of Coastal Zone Management.

The Coastal area is the most fertile zone of the country, and is mainly flat. On the other hand, due to the low
development of industry, except the aluminum industry and the growing oil industry, the green—house gasses
(G.H.G.) emissions in Suriname are very limited. In the near future, drastic increases of emissions are not
expected. This is why a mitigation study is not of a great importance but an emission inventory is necessary,
because it is the commitment ofUNFCCC. The priority in Suriname is to study the coastal zone.

Coastal Characteristics

Suriname is located in north—east South America between the 20 — 60 latitude and 540 — 5 80 longitude. The
total area is approximately 164,000 km2 and borders in the east French Guinea, in the west Guyana, in the
south Brazil, and in the north, the Atlantic Ocean.

Geographically, this country can be distinguished by 4 major zones, going from north to south:
1. The young coastal plain (Holocane age ), elevation (0.5 — 1.5 m ) MSL.

2. The old coastal plain (4 - 10 m ) MSL

3. The savanna or the Zandery belt 10 100 MSL

4. The upland interior 1230 m MSL

The young coastal plain is the most vulnerable part of the country to sea level rise. This area ranges from
about 30 km wide in the east to 80 km in the west, and is dominated by sand and clay. The total area is about
10,000 kmz.

Along the coastline a so-called estuarine, a movement of sand and mudbanks can be observed. The velocity is
about 0.5 — 2.5 km/year, and is the order of 30 — 60 km in the length and 10 20 km in the width.

The mud banks are more or less a result of the activities of the Amazon river sedimentation which has been
transported by the Guyana stream, while the sandbanks are formed by activities of the local rivers.

Volume 2: Country Studies Report I 67

 

The total length of coast is 386 km and is mainly covered with mangroves in a narrow strip directly along the
coast and the lower course of the rivers. The majority of the young coastal plain consists of heavy clays which
form extensive swamps and marshes. The elevation of this area varies between +0.5 - 1.5 m MSL.

The Coastal zone has important shrimp nurseries, sea—turtle nesting and bird nesting concentrations. In
addition, artisanal coastal fisheries are very important on both the open ocean and in the estuaries. Also, other
economical activities take place in this area, such as agriculture and mining. About 90% of the inhabitants live
and work in this area. These social and economic focuses on the coast make the area very important.

Even now, when the danger of the sea level rise is not too significant, different parts of the shoreline suffer
from great erosion. Dams and roads have been washed away and/ or are in great danger. The shore line of
Totness area, for example, has retreated 3 km land ward since 1950.

The consequent sea level rise due to the climate change, will have far more influence on the coastal zone and
all the above mentioned activities and ecosystems will be threaten directly or indirectly.

In order to to understand the vulnerabilities, a study should be done: A study on the Coastal zone.

Sources and impacts of the climate change in Suriname

The main Components of this study are:

I. The Coastal profile

In order to make some vulnerability analysis, data of different disciplines should be gathered. For instance the
composition of thematic maps of the coastal area needs interpretation of satellite images, which should be
purchased.

Not only the general characteristics such as morphology, land use, infrastructure, settlements, ecosystems, but
also the social and economic value of the area will be considered in the coastal profile — analysis of historical
trends will also be performed relating the change over the last ten years.

II. The vulnerabilig; assessment.

A vulnerability assessment of the coast is the basis for considering the impacts of climate change with coastal
zone management. The study area for the vulnerability assessment is the entire Suriname coastal area that
would be affected by a sea level rise of 1.0 m.

Three situations of development are therefore proposed to be considered.

— Actual: The present situation of development, based on the coastal profile as formulated under component 1;
— Pessimistic: A future situation(2010) under pessimistic assumptions of social and economic development:
and

— Optimistic: A future situation but under optimistic assumption of social and economic development.
Considering these socio—econornic developments, the components of the vulnerability study are: impacts on
ecosystems, impacts on human and economic activities, and other preparatory activities. Identification of
adaptation response strategies will be developed based on the analysis of these impacts.

68 I Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

HI. Pilot project.
The findings of the coastal resources profile and the vulnerability assessment will be applied in a pilot project.

The particular aim is to further develop and specify adaptation measures in a real CZM context, and analyze
their possible effects and feasibility.

The Northwest area of Suriname has been selected for the pilot project. This region has activities such as:
agriculture, navigation, fisheries, ecological reserve, and land protection. In this project, local staff, representa—
tives of other local authorities and stakeholders will be involved. Training and other courses will be organized
in order to pass the ‘know-how.’

In the final phase, a workshop will be organized where the findings of the study and the pilot project will be
discussed.

The whole study will last for 14 months and the planned date is April 1997.

The study is divided in two parts:

— the emission inventory and

- the coastal zone management

The emission inventory will be under the coordination of the meteorological service, which is also functioning
as the general coordinator for the whole study. The coordinator for coastal zone management will be the
Hydraulic Research Division. Other institutes are involved, and subtracted for execution of different specific
themes and subjects.

The Netherlands government is primarily responsible for financing this project, while contribution of the
Surinamese government consist of personal costs of government officials and furnished office space.

Volume 2: Country Studies Report M 69

 

 

THAILAND’S COUNTRY REPORT

Nawarat Krairapanond

Thailand’s National Committee On Climate Change
Office Of Environmental Policy And Planning
Ministry Of Science, Technology And Environment
Bangkok, Thailand

INTRODUCTION

Thailand has approximately 2,600 km of coastline, much of which contains important activities such as shrimp
farming, rice cultivation, industrial complex, port development and tourism—related business. It is clear that
Thailand, like many of the developing countries in Southeast Asia, is at risk from adverse effects resulting from
climate change. The economic and social implications of effects from sea level rise could be significant at the

local and national levels (TEI, 1992). With the support of the US Country Studies Program, Thailand has been
carrying out a vulnerability assessment and adaptive strategies in response to the rise of sea level.

SITUATION AND SCOPE OF THE ASSESSMENT

Vulnerability and adaptation assessment of sea level rise due to climate change in Thailand have been carried out
by Thailand Environment Institute (TEI) for Office of Environmental Policy and Planning (OEPP), Ministry
of Science, Technology and Environment (MOSTE), which is responsible for climate change issues of Thailand
(Fig. 1). Vulnerability and adaptation assessment have been undertaken according to the 7-step assessment
outlined by the IPCC. At present, the study results are contained in a progress report that will be reviewed for a
draft final in 1997. However, it is not clear whether adaptation strategies would be short—term (5 —10 years) or
long—term issues (20—100 years). The implications of adaptive strategies and measures for coastal management
practices are being analysed as well.

Impacts of sea level rise due to climate change in Thailand has been assessed using three sea level rise scenarios
of low (20 cm), moderate (50 cm) and high (100 cm and more). Some sectors and areas have already been
studied by several researchers, including the Bangkok Metropolitan Area, Songkhla Lake, Ban Don Bay, East
Coast (Chantaburi, Rayong and Trat Provinces) and the Andaman Sea (Somboon and Thiramongkol, 1993;
Somboon and Paphavasit, 1993; Srivadhana, 1993; Aksornkoae and Paphavasit, 1993; Chansang, 1993; Panich,
1995). Those researchers assessed the impacts of a 0.5 to 1 m rise of sea level on selected administrative units,
physiographic units and ecological zones. The present study conducted by Thailand Environment Institute
extends assessment on the remaining key sectors of tourism and new industrial development using Phuket,
Samut Prakan and Samut Songkram Provinces, the Eastern Seaboard and both coastal areas of the Malaysia
Peninsular as case study (Fig. 2) (TEI, 1996).

RESULTS OF STUDY

Since im acts from sea level rise can be uantified onl in terms of inundation and, more ualitativel in

P . _ q _ Y . Cl Ya
geomorphological change, this study thus relies to a large extent upon experiences from many parts of the world
(TIE, 1996 . Vulnerabili and ada tation assessment in res onse to sea level rise on the coasts of Thailand are

. P P
summarized in Table 1.

70 I Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

Figure 1: Organization structure of Thailand’s National Committee on Climate Change

Cabinet
National Environment Board (NEB) Chaired by the Prime Minister

National Committee on Climate Change (NCCC)
Chairperson: Permanent Secretary of MOSTE
Secretariat: Office of Environmental Policy and Planning (OEPP)

/ Pollution Control Department (PCD)

Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives

Ministry of Interior

Ministry of Industry

Ministry of Transport and Communication

Ministry of Public Health

Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board
National Energy Policy Office

Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Academics/NGO’S

IMPLICATIONS FOR COASTAL MANAGEMENT PRACTICES

In Thailand, low—lying coastal regions are one of the most vulnerable areas threatened by sea level rise. The cost of
building sea walls and putting in drainage and pumping systems to manage the land margin as sea level rise would
be great. It has been estimated that the coast of preventing sea incursion on 5,000 km of low lying coastline in
Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia would total about US$ 50 billion. It is, therefore, difficult to envision Southeast
Asian countries achieving this on a large scale without substantial international assistance (UNEP, 1992). Some
uncertainty exists in the scientific understanding of sea level rise and its impacts. Thus, accurate prediction of the
corresponding physical, economic and social effects, as well as the development of adaptation strategies or policy
options remain extremely difficult (TEI, 1992). The adaptation strategies and measures in response to the impacts
of sea level rise in Thailand are being developed and hopefully will be completed in Mid of 1997.

Like many countries, Thailand has been facing scientific uncertainty that fuels political hesitation in developing a
national response to climate change impacts which could go unnoticed for another 50 to 100 years. To help gain a
better understanding of the impacts of sea level rise on Thailand’s low—lying coastal regions, further research and
monitoring programs based upon Geographic Information System (GIS) should be established (TDRI and TEI,
1993). The study team is now preparing the management practices based upon the policy implications from the
past two workshops held in Malaysia and Indonesia. Five major types of policy response proposed at the work-
shops are (UNEP, 1992) : 1) economic (changes in existing tax structure, subsidies, pricing system etc.); 2) techno—
logical (breeding new varieties, constructing dams and coastal protection structures); 3) institutional (enhanced or
distorted market mechanisms, formal government regulations, and legal instruments), and monitoring (character—

Volume 2: Country Studies Report I 71

 

istic signs of change, both biological and socioeconomic that could provide necessary early warning to ensure
timely action).

Fig 2 Map of Coastal Provinces of Thailand (Chansang, 1993)

REFERENCES

 

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:COuntry Studies Report W 75

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76 I Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

Aksornkaoe, S. and N. Paphavasit. 1993. Effect of Sea Level Rise on the Mangrove Ecosystem in Thailand.
Malaysian J. ofTrop. Geog. 24(1/2): 29—34.

Chansang, H. 1993. Effect of Sea Level Rise on Coral Reefs in Thailand. Malaysian J. ofTrop. Geog. 24(1/2):
21—27.

Panich, S. 1995. Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Coastal Resources in Thailand. p. 8. (mimeo-
graph).

Somboon,].RP. and N. Thiramongkol. 1993. Effect of Sealevel Rise on the North Coast of the Bight of
Bangkok, Thailand, Malaysian J. ofTrop. Geog. 24(1/2) : 3—12.

Somboon, J. R. P. and N. Paphavasit. 1993. Effect of Sea Level Rise on the Songkhla Lakes, Thailand.
Malaysian J ofTrop. Geog. 24 (1/2) : 13-20.

Srivardhana, R. 1993. Methodology of Assessing the Economic Impacts of Sea Level Rise with Reference to
Ban Don Bay, Thailand. Malaysian J. ofTrop. Geog. 24(1/2) : 35—40.

Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) and Thailand Environment Institute (TEI). 1993. Prepa—
ration of a National Strategy on Global Climate Change :Thailand. p. 320.

Thailand Environment Institute (TEI). 1992. Thailand Country Report to the United Nations Conference on
Environment and Development (UNCED). p. 151.

Thailand Environment Institute (TEI). 1996. Sea Level Rise Impacts on Thailand’s Coastal Areas : A Pre—
liminary Assessment. pp. 2/ 1—2/ 8. I_n : K. Boonpragob (ed). Vol. I. Climate Change :Thailand’s Role
in a Global Context. Thailand Environment Institute (TEI) 1996 Annual Conference, Central Plaza
Hotel, Bangkok, Thailand.

UNEP. 1992. The Potential Socio—Economic Effects of Climate Change : a Summary of Thailand, Malaysia
and Indonesia. (edited by Parry, M.L., A. R. Magalhaes and N. H. Ninb)

Volume 2: Country Studies Report I 77

 

 

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SEA LEVEL RISE
IN FUNAFUTI, TUVALU — A CASE STUDY
OF IMPACTS, RESPONSE OPTIONS AND
ADAPTATION ON ATOLL ISLANDS

James Aston
South Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP)
Apia, Western Samoa

1 Introduction

One of the objectives of the ‘South Pacific Regional Programme Action Plan for Managing the Environment
of the South Pacific Region 1997 -2000’ is to develop understanding and the capacity to respond to climate
change and sea level rise, particularly through integrated coastal management, in the Pacific region. To
achieve this objective, the programme co-ordinates and implements activities related to the science and
impacts of climate change and the development of Viable response and adaptation options for Pacific island
countries. These initiatives provide the foundation for effective capacity building in the development of
integrated coastal management appropriate to the circumstances of Pacific Island countries and territories.
This paper summarises the findings of two initiatives under this programme: the third and fourth phase of the
National Vulnerability Assessment Studies and the first phase of the Australia/SPREP Coastal Vulnerability
Initiative on climate change in atoll nations, using Funafuti atoll, Tuvalu as a case study. Funafuti atoll makes
a good case study by the nature of its smallness and absence of confounding environmental influences com—
monly experienced on the high continental islands.

The National Vulnerability Assessment Studies deal with the impacts of climate change and have four phases.
The phase 3 and 4 ‘Reports for the Integrated Coastal Zone Management Programme, Coastal Vulnerability
and Resilience Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Tuvalu’ are designed to closely
examine the natural vulnerability and resilience of the islands. This was achieved by modifying the IPCC
Common Methodology and IPCC Guidelines for Impacts and Adaptation in the region to develop a regional
framework methodology applicable to the SPREP member governments. These last phases have identified
some very important mitigation and adaptation options in dealing with climate and environmental changes.

The Australia/SPREP Coastal Vulnerability Initiative on climate change in atoll nations aims to assist Pacific
island countries in assessment of, and response to, coastal impacts of climate change as a priority issue for the
Pacific Islands region, especially the small atoll nations including Tuvalu, Kiribati, Marshall Islands and
Federated States of Micronesia. The work aims to assist environmental practitioners from these countries to
enhance their ability to undertake vulnerability assessment and develop response strategies, relevant to their
local environments.

78 m Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

2 Funafuti atoll — Tuvalu

Tuvalu is located in the South Pacific (north of Fiji) and comprises about 9 small atolls. In geomorphological
terms Funafuti is the classical atoll, the main island of which is Fongafale. Being an atoll, it is comprised of
accumulations of the remains of calcareous reef forming organisms, situated along the perimeter of a central
lagoon. Hence, Funafuti has a relatively long coastline and small land mass surrounded by a large area of
ocean. No part of the island rises more than 5 metres above sea level and, as such, is one of four atoll states in
the world most vulnerable to sea level rise.

Tuvalu has a subsidence economy and its people have a strong attachment to the land. The population in
Funafuti is currently less than 4000 and growing at 5.1%. The population density is 1,376 persons per square
kilometre but is projected to rise to in the vicinity of 2,500 by the year 2050 (in the absence of any population
control policies).

The models constructed from Tuvalu tide gauge data suggest a 15 to 20cm rise in sea level by the year 2050.
While the direction of change of sea level rise is known, the speed and magnitude of change is still uncertain.
For example, in stormy conditions the models indicate that up to two thirds of the land on Funafuti will be
inundated because of the rise in sea level. Wave over—topping may worsen the situation.

Aside from sea level rise, climate change impacts also include a warmer atmosphere and ocean, changing
rainfall, a greater occurrence of extreme events, changes to wave patterns, a decline in species diversity and
disturbance to the ecosystem in general. However, the rates and directions of these changes are unknown.

3 Impacts And Response Options
3.1 Foreshore

Changes in the climate and sea level is likely to affect the coastal geomorphology and natural systems of
Funafuti in several ways. For example, extraction of materials from the beaches may lead to unnatural in situ
and ex situ erosion of the foreshore directly and indirectly through wave action. The disturbance and loss of
sediment, may in turn, elevate sediment levels in the lagoon. Similarly, on—shore activities such as land
reclamation and construction of causeways may lead to redistribution of sediment where the hydro—dynamics
of the shoreline have been altered. According to the Ministry of Natural Resources 8c Ministry of Finance
(1995), borrow pits now represent a major environmental and health hazard, as well as restricting economic
development and efficient management of land resources.

Some of the ‘softer’ options open to the Government of Tuvalu include the use of coastal vegetation and
planting of salt tolerant species as well as measures to protect the groundwater. Some work (see Seluka, 1996)
has already been carried out on the feasibility of vegetation as an erosion control on atolls. ‘Hard’ engineering
options such as coastal protection structures are most common on Funafuti. Construction of seawalls in
Funafuti began during WW II to protect the reclamation land on the lagoon side of the atoll, where most of
the population reside. Seawalls of gabion basket type were constructed in the 19705 and are still in use today.

In some situations, hard options are likely to lead to more problems than they solve. Engineering works of a
highly technical or capital intensive nature can have a high impact on the environment and may be unsuitable
in some situations. Recently, the Tuvalu government has started promoting seawalls of concrete cube type
construction. However, these seawalls are likely to be less effective where the relative crown height is reduced
or where there is an increase in the magnitude and frequency of storm surge and tropical cyclones. Further, as
wave height increases and the wave force upon the seawall becomes stronger, the stability of the seawall
decreases, resulting in either collapse or relocation of the component blocks.

Volume 2: Country Studies Report I 79

 

3.2 Hydrogeology

Funafuti atoll is composed of a conglomerate coral platform and water permeability is relatively high. Cata—
strophic flooding from high storm tides, for example, may not have a permanent effect, but through saltwater
intrusion may well make the groundwater resource unusable at a time when other water supplies are disrupted.
In other cases, where there is incremental loss of shoreline and hence island area loss, there will be a concomi—
tant decrease in the cross—sectional area of the freshwater lens.

A rise in sea water level may also make the freshwater lens thinner and decrease the available amount of
freshwater. Pollution of groundwater may be exacerbated by dredging and quarry operations which increase
the coupling of the ocean and groundwater. Similarly, the construction of channels may modify water circula—
tion and other factors controlling water level differences between the lagoon and the ocean (Buddemeir and
Obdorfer, 1990). It is likely also that the airfield at Funafuti could reduce the infiltration of rainwater into the
freshwater lens.

3.3 Flora and Fauna

The change in climate and concomitant changes in the patterns of occurrence of environmental extremes is
likely to affect the agricultural base of Funafuti. The most common crops are coconut, taro, pandanus, veg-
etables, breadfruit and pulaka. Pulaka crops occupy 65 ha (2.5%) of the total land area (McLean and Hosking,
1991) and form the basis of the Tuvaluan subsistence economy. Higher sea levels and wave overtopping
affects the quality of the water available to the Pulaka crops which grow in pits dug down to the depth of the
water table. Other plants adjacent to the shoreline may similarly be affected. The numbers of individual
species of these plants may decline to the point of reducing biological diversity on the island. This in turn will
mean a shift in species richness of fauna such as migratory birds.

3.4 Potable Water

The people of Tuvalu depend on catchment of rainwater for drinking. Climate changes such as the amount,
frequency and intensity of rainfall, the evaporative regime and the permeability of the surface and subsurface
materials modify the water resources of the island. An increase in population or industry will increase the
demand for the water. The management of water is a complex task for these reasons. At present, even short
periods without rain will deplete the water supply because of the lack of storage capacity. Infrastructure such
the airport, roads and drains divert much of the available water into the surrounding seas, reducing the
amount that is available to the freshwater lens below the island.

3.5 People and Society

The combined effects of climate change and sea level rise on the natural and built environments of Funafuti
are likely to adversely affect the communities there. Currently, village and other buildings occupy 172ha or
6.5% of the total land area (McLean and Hosking, 1991). A rise in sea level may directly destroy or under—
mine the foundations of buildings. To control the population spread, people from the outer islands moving to
Funafuti are not allowed to build permanent houses and build low cost less structurally sound dwellings. The
more established settlers are building houses out of more substantial and more expensive material such as
masonry block. In most cases the dwellings are likely to contain expensive electrical goods, increasing the
potential for loss.

Less visible, but more insidious are the problems facing these societies such as waste disposal, pollution of
water lenses, inadequate sanitation, health and nutritional problems and social problems caused by climate
change and sea level rise. For example, social problems may arise from a decline in pulaka production where
the local levels of subsistence and the cultural ceremonies that are based on pulaka production are seriously

80 m Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

undermined over the long term.

The establishment of urban services also accentuates migration into Funafuti from the outer islands. This
creates a ‘brain drain’ on some islands in addition to a drain on the state as a whole through international
migration. The Government of Tuvalu has considered that it would be feasible to abandon the atoll and move
to other Pacific countries such as Australia in a worst case scenario.

Population pressures are also being addressed by the adoption of a less centralised approach to development
and by decentralisation to the outer atolls. The policy of the Tuvalu government is to reduce the population
from 1.7% to 1% by the year 2004 (amounting to about 17,000 people. The population of Tuvalu is currently
around 10,000). The Tuvalu government also wants to reduce the fertility rate from 3.6% to 3% by the year
2050). They also have a range of other policies in place relating to the wise use of resources and sound
environmental management.

4 Adaptive roles of the government

From the above it is clear that a range of impacts at a range of scales on agriculture, tourism, fisheries, govern—
ment services, infrastructure, settlements, society and culture are expected as a result of climate change and sea
level rise. The impacts would be felt not just on one but a range of these ‘exposure units’ because of the
linkages between each of the units. For example a cyclone hitting one of the outer islands would also disrupt
services at Funafuti. These linkages have a direct bearing on the types of adaptive responses required.

Considerable effort continues to be made by Pacific island countries, principally through the Alliance of Small
Island States (AOSIS), to secure meaningful reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. While reducing emis-
sidns remains a priority, it is recognised that efforts are required to prepare for adaptation.

Adaptation is a staged process. It has to be culturally acceptable, cost effective, flexible and not affect future
opportunities. It may take the form of direct action such as building a seawall or building a wall around the
pulaka pits. It can also take the form of indirect action through modifying human behaviour so that people
don’t build next to the sea. Such actions need to be supported by information and awareness and education
programs including what is happening at the regional and international level.

5 Adaptation through integrated coastal management

We are starting to get a feel for the adjustment or actions required (i.e. adaptation). However, it is not a
simple step to go from risk assessment of climate change and sea level rise effects to the identification and
development of response options through to adaptation measures which are sustainable in the longer term. A
broad range of government, social, economic and cultural factors should be considered which take into
account factors at the local, national, regional and international level, prior to and during the ‘adaptation’
process.

What we need in the Pacific region is a process or framework to follow to effectively implement these actions.
For nearly three years now SPREP has been trying to secure funds to pilot an integrated coastal management
framework which is appropriate to the Pacific Island countries (The word zone has been dropped from the
ICZM concept as the island itself is the ‘Zone’). I suspect that some Pacific Island countries governments
have been reluctant to embrace the ICZM concept because, by implication, it means that the whole island will
need to be managed and that environment may eventually assume more importance than industry.

4

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5.1 Past Experiences

To date, coastal problems and issues in the Pacific region have been dealt as discrete projects on a case by case
basis. During project implementation, consultants have either tended to adopt carz‘e blame/.7 the concept of
sectorally targeted coastal management previously developed by the larger continental countries or other
equally inappropriate processes. The use of outside consultants in general does not account for the special
circumstances and aspirations of Pacific Islanders.

In some cases the solutions to climate change and sea level rise problems are too simply defined. For example,
the adoption of setback policies developed for larger continental islands to minimise land loss are generally
not affective due to the long perimeter to area ratio of the atoll and because many of the inhabitants have
traditionally lived on the beach berm, adjacent to the borrow pits.

The EIA base is, in general, is not well developed in many Pacific Islands. The effective implementation of
the legislative base such as EIA is dependent on a whole range of other initiatives such as upgrading of the
skills of public servants, defining the role of local government, general awareness of environmental issues
within the wider community, other development and management plans, integrated monitoring to evaluate
plans and monitoring of the natural ecosystems.

In other cases, projects suffer from a lack of co—ordination. The end result is that a large number of coastal
management plans are sitting on shelves, serving as a reminder that the development and implementation of
management plans for Pacific Island countries needs improvement.

5.2 Lessons learned

The classical ICZM approach hasn’t worked well in the Pacific Island countries because of the:

— distinct zones, permitting and enforcement of regulations are generally culturally inappropriate where
there is customary ownership of land.

— lack of baseline and change information on natural resources and environment

— lack of financial, human and institutional resources. Donor funded project have a set life if the
management and planning ‘base’ is not developed.

— government framework, modelled on the governments of colonial powers can be authoritarian and
non participatory. On the contrary, a cornerstone of ICZM is that it must be integrated and
participatory.

For a number of reasons the small size of islands means there is less room for error in management of natural
resources. In general, Pacific Island countries have a limited amount and diversity of land based resources.
The environment and economy are closely linked. For example, extraction of road base material from the reef
flat often leads to environmental problems. The economies of islands are usually highly dependent on small
export base and incoming remittances from overseas. In some cases, the decision making systems of govern—
ment may be at variance with the customary decision making processes.

On the other hand, Pacific Island countries have much opportunity. They usually have a large Exclusive
Economic Zone (EEZ) and a great capacity to co-operate with other Pacific Island countries to achieve
substantial economies of scale. There is also a very high level of (integrated) community involvement with
coastal resources along with close family and community ties. Consensus decision making is often important
in those communities. They also have the flexibility to rely on their subsistence activities including traditional
management practices if necessary

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5.3 The Way Ahead

There is a need to downsize what we are trying to achieve with the ICM process for Pacific Island countries
and territories. The key to success may well be to combine the wisdom of a ‘top down’ approach with the
practicality and ownership of a ‘bottom up’ approach. We need to proceed cautiously but build on the current
base of infrastructure, project work and government networks. The process needs to include extensive partici—
pation and ownership at all levels. The first step in that process is making sure all protocols are followed.

Once we do get funds to trial the ICM, we will have a better idea of what needs to be done, at least in terms
of capacity building and the gaps in the system. In the meantime I am working on a integrated coastal
management programme which is essentially an attempt to set up a management rather than a planning
framework for the sustainable conservation and development of the marine environment. It is designed to
build up the foundation for the ICM planning process, but only as a pilot exercise. It is phased in design and
tries to anticipate the processes, knowledge, tools and techniques that need to be established for ICM in the
Pacific. For example its critical elements include the setting up of advisory groups or stakeholder networks,
awareness and education and strengthening of the EIA process in general.

6 Conclusion

Climate change and sea level rise is likely to seriously affect the atolls because of the concentration of popula—
tion, infrastructure, and assets in a relatively small area. There is likely to be damage to the foreshore, struc—
tures, flora and fauna; flooding and salinisation of groundwater. This in turn is likely to affect. the people and
societies of those atolls. The extent of environmental degradation will depend on the magnitude of environ—
mental change and the tolerance of the affected ‘exposure unit’.

Coastal management and planning approaches demand unique and considered solutions if they are to work in
places like Funafuti. The Funafuti case study illustrates that broad principles and frameworks developed at
the international level will need to be modified at the local level to take into account the circumstances of
Pacific Island countries and territories.

7 References

Buddemeier, R.W. and Obdorfer,J.A. 1990. Climate Change and Island Groundwater Resources in J. Pernetta and P.
Hughes, eds. In Studies and Reviews ofGreen/Jouse Relatea’ Climate Change Impacts on the Pacific Islands. ASPE,
Majuro, 16—27.

Mclean, R, and Hosking, PL. 1991. Tuvalu Land Resources Survey. Country Report, FAO and University of Auckland,
New Zealand.

Ministry of Natural Resources 8c Ministry of Finance. 1995. Strategies for Management of the Environment in Tuvalu.
Unpublished Paper prepared for the Global Environment Facility (GEF) Scoping Workshop, Nadi, Fiji, 1—3
August 1995. 7pp.

Seluka, S. 1996. Traditional, Current and Potential Uses of Forest Trees and OtlJer Plants of Tuvalu. Environment Unit,
Funafuti

Sem, G., Campbell, J.R., Hay, J.E., Mimura, N., Yamada, K., Ohno, E. 1996. VulnerabilityAssessmentfor, and Response
Strategies to Sea Level Rise and Climate Change for Tuvalu — P/Jase 4 Final Report.

South Pacific Regional Environment Programme. 1992. lee Pacific Why. Pacific Island Developing Countries’ Report to
the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development. PIDC report to UNCED. 52pp.

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ll. Regional Reports

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ll. Regional Reports

 

 
 

SMALL ISLAND DEVELOPING STATES or THE PACIFIC

IF THE SHOE DOESN’T FIT: INSTITUTIONAL OBSTACLES IN THE
APPLICATION OF WESTERN ICZM MODELS TO
SMALL ISLAND DEVELOPING STATES (SIDS)

L. Heidi Primo
Office of the President
Federated States of Micronesia

Abstract

Resource managers and policy makers in developing countries have much to learn from the Western
models of integrated coastal zone management (ICZM). However for small island nations, where the coastal
zone is defined as the entire island from the watershed to the nearshore marine zone, certain aspects have
been determined as inapplicable or even culturally inappropriate. However, planning for climate change and
potential sea level rise impacts makes delay in coastal management a crucial “decision-by~default”, compelling
islanders to face impending disasters and possible further damage. If the shoe doesn’t fit, there are several
alternatives, including forcing a fit by adapting ICZM concepts and principles so that the entire process can
be made suitable and relevant to specific island situations.

This paper will discuss some of the problems and constraints which make it difficult to initiate ICZM
in Pacific Island developing nations, with recommendations for some innovative and controversial solutions.

Approximately ninety percent of Pacific Island populations live on or near the coast. Most economic,
social and cultural activities rely on the coastal environment. Development has often been haphazard and
destructive to marine and ocean resources. Lack of knowledge about environmental management, climate
change and integrated coastal zone management is generally prevalent throughout the Pacific islands, al—
though awareness is increasing amongst the government elite. It is generally recognized that coral atoll islands
and low—lying coastal areas are extremely vulnerable to the projected impacts of climate change and sea level
rise. Predictions of the effects of sea level rise on atolls assume that the entire way of life will be disrupted.
Before actual storm disasters or inundation occurs, residents will most likely abandon their home islands when
they lose the ability to practice traditional agriculture and when fresh water lenses become too salinated to
support life.

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has targeted three major strategies for coping with
sea level rise: accommodation, protection and retreat. Apart from the international implications of potential
out—migration by millions of “environmental refugees" there are economic factors inherent in making deci—
sions about which infrastructure and habitats are worthy of protection. In most Pacific island nations, the
preferable option is to accommodate and to somehow adapt to the rising sea level scenarios.

On small islands an ecosystem approach recognizes the ecological linkages from the top of the
watershed all the way to the nearshore ocean zone. For management purposes, the definition of the coastal
zone is the entire island, although larger islands can be sub—divided into areas according to planned develop—
ment usage’s. Planning and management must be for the entire island— surface and ground waters, soil
management to beaches including the coral reef because of the inter—dependence and inter—relatedness
between all of these geographical systems.

Even on islands where climate change and sea level rise are issues of great concern, there are so many
other pressing economic and social problems, that climate change adaptation and coastal zone management is
not the priority of the majority of Pacific island governments, at present. Growing island populations in—
crease the pressure for residential development, more tourism and recreational facilities and more exploitation
of marine resources. Most Pacific island leaders do see the linkages between sound environmental manage—
ment and tourism, realizing that return visitors are unlikely if beaches are littered, habitats are degraded and
water is polluted.

Dependence of island nations on foreign technology is a prime factor in their underdevelopment. By
exporting capital and transferring technology in its mature stages, the developed countries have made under—
developed countries perpetually dependent on them. What keeps an economy undeveloped is the destruction
of its human resources, combined with the destruction of indigenous technology and the distortion of its own
course of history through the introduction of foreign environmental hazards and technologies. Climate
change seems to be perpetuating this condition. Added to this is a low level of educational achievement often
combined with the perception of “backwardness” compared to advanced countries which have access to the
latest information and remote sensing technologies as well as predictive computer models.

Clearly, Pacific islands are not all the same. They range from low coral atolls with a few inhabitants
to high volcanic islands with a few hundred thousand people. Common amongst them however are isolation
and vast ocean areas for which they are responsible. Poverty is widespread. The scale of planning for sustain—
able development is relative to the numbers and distribution of population, as well as to the level of educa-
tional achievement. Technology transfer and climate change adaptation planning requires fundamental social
and economic changes. There is action which Pacific islanders can take to prepare for climate change, beyond
hoping for a science fiction technological rescue, in order to remain on their islands as long as possible.
Technology must be designed not to fill the gaps that arise over time, but to meet the circumstances which
confront us. Islanders have the power to shape circumstances with a positive vision of the long—term future.
Adaptation will involve some coastal protection (hard engineering) as well as so-called “soft solutions” such as
the development of integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) plans. ICZM is viewed as a win-win
situation, whether or not climate change impacts which manifest are as devastating as currently envisioned.

Actions must be consistent with the stated development priorities within an island nation, not
imposed by outside “experts” or donor agencies. The first action that should be taken is the development of
the local capacity needed to address short—term and immediate coastal zone problems (coral reef damage,
waste disposal, water quality) before tackling the long—term problems which will be aggravated by climate
change and sea level rise (i.e. coastal erosion). Integrated coastal zone management addresses human com—
munities, settlements, resources, land and sea uses. Adaptive measures will have to consider salt—tolerant
agriculture, the condition of fresh water lenses, vulnerability to floods and droughts, and sustainability of
fisheries. An “ad hoc” reactive approach to planning, resource (esp. fisheries) management and disaster
preparedness which is not integrated will no longer be acceptable, given the new problems arising from
climate change.

However flexible Western models of coastal zone management are, they will still need to be adapted
to each site, because each island is unique geographically, culturally, socially, economically and in the manner

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in which resources are allocated. Development priorities differ, as well. Not all islands desire or allow foreign
investment or development. Local hierarchies rule, not by popular democracies in many isolated atolls.
Strategies must be hand—tailored to the local communities which live on each particular island. Thus, all
sectors of the community including women, youth, fisherfolk, traditional leaders, tourism operators, and
marine business owners need to be included not only in the planning process, but ultimately in the monitoring
and management of their own resources. This is particularly relevant in the Pacific islands, where strong
traditional customs exist, and where local traditional leaders often hold more influence over people’s lives than
the authorities in power in the government.

Where no focused coastal zone management exists, options for better coordination between manage—
ment agencies and communities need to be identified in order to integrate policies, management and adminis—
tration. Techniques such as Rapid Rural Appraisal and Participatory Rural Assessment have been useful on
Pacific islands to help to target pressing problems. It may take public concern over coastal degradation and
the impact of increased development to force government to act on consolidating its coastal protection
strategies and policies. Using facilitation and agreed—upon conflict resolution methods, groups can agree on
their own goals, objectives, plans and implementing actions.

Some of the best plans sit on shelves gathering dust. Most island nations now practice “top down”
planning, so a transfer to community—based participation will require time and patience. Unsustainable
resource exploitation by an indigenous elite with inordinate power is also an issue which will require sensitiv—
ity to provoke changes.

There are a variety of other institutional constraints that will have to be overcome, in order to develop
effective integrated coastal zone plans in Pacific islands. Land tenure conflicts abound. The vast majority of
Pacific islands are composed of privately owned land. Government can not control shoreline uses and even
the ocean and lagoon areas are not always in the “public domain” since many islands have varying systems of
reef tenure or indigenous traditional rights to resources which will need to be considered.

Unfortunately, the largest blockages to achieving successful implementation of coastal zone manage-
ment plans are within the institutions of government itself. Lack of communication between the departments
and agencies with environmental responsibilities is rampant, although this problem is not exclusive to island
nations, or even developing countries. The two most important requirements for achieving integration within
and between levels of government on widely different coastal issues are communication and cooperation.
There is also a remarkable lack of dedication to the tasks at hand by indigenous managers whose job security
is not based on performance. Overloading of responsibilities on small staffs is not uncommon; often two or
three individuals must deal with compliance to all the marine-based environmental treaties and as well as
organization of outreach to the public. Legal structures divide jurisdiction between states (or local) and
national governments.

Grants and foreign aid are generally only awarded to national government. Little trickles down to
communities or municipalities or outer island councils. Consultants are generally foreigners who don’t have a
vested interest in permanent solutions and eventually leave. The bulk of budgets for outside—funded plans and
projects goes to consultant’s fees and salaries, not to local government or communities for education or
implementation. Added to this are enforcement problems and difficulties applying sanctions in island societ—
ies which are regulated more by customs than penalties.

For the successful adoption or expansion of ICZM in the Pacific islands, the first requirements will be
appropriate bureaucratic infrastructures combined with skilled personnel to operate and manage programs. A
positive attitude towards the adoption of ICZM by all the stakeholders involved is also a key element. The
broad spectrum of collaborators must include church leaders, traditional leaders, non—government agencies,
universities and scientists, as well as broad—based participation from all levels of government from national, to
state, to local Village, municipal or island councils.

Building bridges between government and local communities is essential. Coastal management needs
a national perspective and framework for lCZM across and between government agencies. But, it is a two—

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way process. Each agency and locally managed area (or island) needs to develop local strategies and to have
community input and participation in the development of an over—riding national policy. Government is
responsible for environmental protection and resource management, but must be open to collaboration with
other partners. Government leaders must be willing to experiment with authorizing community—based groups
and non—government organizations to make resource management decisions. Landowners must be integrally
involved in decisions relating to the use of private land and must be provided with incentives or viable eco-
nomic alternatives for sustainable livelihood, if they comply with conservation objectives.

The keys to successful ICZM and to planning for climate change in small Pacific island nations will
be financing and education. Wide community multi—media education on every level to every population age
group in their own language with visual and graphic material targeted at the non—literate will be crucial in
order for voluntary compliance and sustainable use of resources. Lack of education and skills combined with
“the brain drain” to developed countries has to be rectified gradually by providing incentives to remain on the
islands. Trained planners, trained engineers, oceanographers, fisheries management specialists, etc. are vitally
needed and governments must be willing to help young people get educated in these fields by providing
scholarships and practical internships. Localized training and more side- by—side counterpart relationships (by
qualified individuals) with consultants are needed. Training in facilitation and facilitation leadership are

central to local capacity—building to carry on the ICZM effort.

A combination of regulatory and non—regulatory mechanisms will be required for successful coastal
management in the Pacific islands. On tiny atolls, strong community enforcement of Village laws already
exists and everybody abides by them to take care of their own marine environment, so powerful government
intervention could be counter—productive. Evaluation and monitoring can be done at a local level providing
necessary feed—back to re-design projects to improve their effectiveness.

Deeper, more controversial solutions which could evoke real change include a free press which criti—
cizes the resource exploiters and polluters, despite their status. Awareness by less—educated segments of the
population that some of their leaders are compromising their children’s futures might be the impetus to
transformation. De—centralization of authority and funds from the national government to state, municipal
and local island governments where action can be more effective would allow innovative approaches to be
taken by community groups. More importantly, oversight and scrutiny by aid donors as to how money
actually gets spent (it is often diverted to salaries and travel), audits & initiation of real demands by funders
for accountability would insure that mismanagement of funds is decreased.

It also must be understood that it takes time to convert policy ideals into reality. Perseverance is
necessary if integrated coastal zone management is to be an effective tool to help island nations cope with
climate change as well as currently existing coastal and marine problems.

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SOUTH PACIFIC REGIONAL ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME

OVERVIEW OF CLIMATE CHANGE ACTIVITIES WITHIN
THE SOUTH PACIFIC REGIONAL ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME

James Aston
South Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP)
Apia, Western Samoa

Introduction

SPREP, the South Pacific Regional Environment Programme was set up in 1986 to co—ordinate and
facilitate environmental sustainable development in the Pacific region. The vision for SPREP is a community
Of Pacific Island Countries with the capacity and commitment to implement programmes for environmental
management and conservation (Action Plan for Managing the Environment Of the South Pacific Region
1997 —2000).

SPREPS mandate covers 30 million square kilometres. Within that area there are some 22 Pacific
Island nations and territories (all members Of SPREP) with a combined population of about 6 million people.

We know that some Of these islands are extremely vulnerable to the effects of climate change and sea
level rise. This afternoon I am going to reveal how we know that and what we intend tO do about it.

I want to start by providing a very brief overview Of relevant activities under the Climate Change
Programme within SPREP. These activities primarily relate to the science and impacts Of Climate change
although a few deal with the development of response and adaptation Options. This provides the context for a
discussion Of the results Of two key studies on climate change and sea level on a particular island, an atoll
island, as a case study Of how we plan tO deal with climate change impacts and adaptation on Other Pacific
islands.

The Climate change Programme is c0—ordinated by Dr Chalapan Kaluwin Of SPREP. As mentioned
earlier I work closely with Dr Kaluwin in the area Of adaptation and response Options tO climate change and
sea level rise. We see the development Of adaptation and other response Options as part Of a ‘NO Regrets’ (or
win—win) policy (that is any activity developed by the Programme will be Of benefit whether or not climate
change and sea level rise become a reality). We are also reliant on the efforts of the Alliance of Small Island
States (AOSIS) tO secure meaningful reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

2. Science of Climate Change

Soat/o Pacy‘ic Sea Level and Climate Monitoring Project - a project tO monitor and measures sea level rise
with 12 satellite linked sea level rise monitoring stations across the region.

Atmospheric Radiation Monitoring ~ a monitoring program to assess the amount Of solar radiation and role
Of cloud types in global warming.

Volume 2: Country Studies Report W 89

 

Climate Monitoring Project — program to upgrade meteorological instruments and training in use of those
instruments.

Enhancing Meteorological Capacity — provides training, data archiving, systems and instrumentation and
strengthening regional co—operation between meteorological directors as well as the WMO.
Collaborative work will) I OC, WM 0, IPCC and S OPflC

3. Impacts of Climate Change

SPREP/UNEP minions — identify impacts of climate change on socio-economic, cultural and traditional
sectors in 9 Pacific Island Countries.

National Vulnerability flssessment Studies — these projects assessed national vulnerability and resilience to sea
level rise in 9 countries, trailed and modified the IPCC Common Methodology and identified some
important mitigation and adaptation options.

4. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Activities

We have attracted funds from the Global Environment Facility (GEF) (through UNDP) for 2 large
projects i.e. CC:TRAIN (Climate Change Training) and Pacific Islands Climate Change Assistance
Programme (PICCAP). These programmes are designed to assist Pacific Island Countries in the preparation
of National Communication Plans for the United Nations Framework Convention for the Conference of
Parties.

These projects will assist Pacific Island countries to prepare Greenhouse gas inventories, identify
options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, study the impacts of climate change, identify options to best
adapt to the impacts of climate change and develop policy on these issues.

These projects are complimentary. SPREP has just advertised for the 3 positions of CCzTRAIN
officer, Scientific Co—ordinator and PICCAP program manager.

The US Country Studies deal with green house gas inventories, vulnerability assessment and adapta—
tion. It is a bilateral agreement with the US and countries Federated States of Micronesia, Republic of
Kiribati, Republic of Marshall Islands, Western Samoa and Fiji.

The Japan/SPREP studies are designed to closely examine the impacts, vulnerability and resilience of
Fiji and Tuvalu using a modified IPPC Common Methodology and the IPCC Technical Guidelines for
Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations. This information can assist with the development of
national strategies.

The Australia SPREP studies aim to assist Pacific Island countries in assessment of, and response to,
coastal impacts of climate change on small atoll islands. The work aims to assist the environment unit staff of
these countries to enhance their ability to undertake vulnerability assessment and develop response strategies,
relevant to their local environments.

The Japanese and Australian Vulnerability Studies form the basis of the adaptation work. I will talk
about these projects in the ‘Islands Session’ as a case study of impacts, response options and adaptation on atoll
islands.

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CENTRAL AMERICA

 

GLOBAL WARMING AND THE IMPACTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE (SLR)
FOR CENTRAL AMERICA (an estimation of vulnerability)1

Campos M., Hermosilla C., Luna J., Marin M., Cayetano E., Medrano J., Medina G., Vivas M., Diaz ].,
Gutierrez A., Dieguez M.
Regional Committe on Hydraulic Resources (CRRH—PCCC)

Central America Commission on Environment and Development (CCAD)
United States Country Study Program (US-CSP)

The effects of sea level rise (SLR) for Central America are related to three factors, each in their respective scale.
The factors are: the tectonic phenomena, the greenhouse effect and the sedimentation of beaches and coasts due
to the strong precipitation that occurs upstream, and the poor management of the basins.

Sea level rise exaggerates the process of erosion, submersion, salinization, and increases the risk for flooding and
the impacts of severe storms along the Central American coastline.

This study intends to estimate how SLR may effect the infrastructure located along the study sites, natural
resources, agriculture that develops close to the coastline and on the underground fresh water resources. The
main mechanisms attributed to this effect are: transgression, flooding and erosion process.

The estimation of the vulnerability of the coastal and marine resources associated to a climate change for Central
America assumed the general scientific theory for the greenhouse effect and global warming. Therefore, it is
accepted that global sea level, during a period close to the year 2100, could be 1 meter above the actual mean
sea level, and that several global estimations also indicate that SLR for year 2050 could be close to 0.3—0.5m.

I. A. Methodology:
The methodology used for this study could be summarized as follows:

a. Selection of study area:

For selecting the study areas, experts from several fields developed a physical map of a large coastal zone which
includes information regarding geomorphological and physiographic characteristics, population, main economic
activities, infrastructures, social characteristics. Based on this information and expert judgement, a selection of a
smaller study area was made.

b. Aerial video mapping: this technic was used to identify the actual main characteristics along the coastline.
Results from the video ( taken at two different altitudes, 50 m and 100 m approximately) can be compared with
information from maps and statistics.

c. Geomorphological map:

A geomorphological map was developed for the smaller study area. In order to prepare the map, it was necessary
to execute field works, interpret aerial photography, conduct interviews, gather and analyze existent related
information.

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d. Updating the information:
The information generated by the Videos also contributed to update the information from the maps and to
narrow the decision on what areas should be determined as priorities within the previously selected study zones.

e. Identification of priority or critical zones:

Once homogeneous units were established and the geomorphological characteristics were evaluated critical zones
were determined. The criteria for selecting these areas considered: these areas are lowland areas, sensitive to the
effects of tides and strong waves, the water table changes substantially during the dry and wet season, large
agriculture developments and important infrastructure and human settlements are included.

f. Beach profiles:

Along the critical zones, beach profiles and contour lines for one and 2 meters were developed.

g. Estimation of vulnerability:
Based on the acquired information estimations are made on how vulnerable a particular critical zone is to
transgression, flooding and erosion that will accompany a sea level rise.

1. B. Study Areas

For the estimation of the vulnerability of coastal resources in Central America, several study areas were selected
along both coasts, Caribbean and Pacific. As mentioned before, the main criteria for selecting these areas was
based on social, economic and environmental aspects.

Table 1 and figure 1, present the study areas selected for each country of Central America, as well as some
observations regarding these sites.

Table 1. Study areas

 

 

 

 

COUNTRY STUDY AREAS OBSERVATIONS
GUATEMALA Pacific coastal plains 254 km of longitude.
HONDURAS Occidental Caribbean Coast: From Motagua river to Port La Ceiba
BELIZE Caribbean coast: Northern coasts

Northern lagoons and wetlands
Central lagoons and deltas
Southern marshes

 

NICARAGUA Pacific coast: Divded in four non continuous prioirty segments:
Punta Cosiguina—Jiquilillo

Punta Aposentillo-Port Sandino
Montelimar-Tupilapa

San Juan del Sur bay

 

EL SALVADOR Pacific coast: 330 km of coast. From Paz river to Gulf de Fonseca

 

COSTA RICA Pacific coast: 17 study segments. From Salinas bay to Terraba river

3 study segments (not fully developed in this study).
Caribbean coast: From Punta Castilla to Sixaola river

 

 

 

 

PANAMA Pacific coast: 240 km of coast. From El Rompio to Pacora river

 

 

92 m Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

11. Country studies

ILA Guatemala

The area selected for the study in Guatemala is the Coastal Pacific plain (“Llanura costera del Pacifico”), which
is an area of approximately 254 km in longitude which presents slopes less than 1% steep. Figure 2, shows the
drainage system of the region and the location of some of their more important natural resources along the
coastline.

Main characteristics of the study zone:

—Poor drainage and flooding during the rainy season (severe and intense rain).

—Lagoons, canals, estuaries.

—8.900 Ha covered by mangrove.

—Guatemala’s GNP for 1994 was approximately US$12,900 million, where agriculture represents 25% of
Guatemala’s GNP, 60% of the labor force and 2/3 of exporting goods. Most agriculture activities are located on
the Pacific side.

-Guatemala’s population is approximately 8,300,000 and 5.6% live on the coastline.

-Other activities: fishing, fish farms, salt production, most of them for national consumption.

—International costal tourism is less developed, however, there are some resorts for national tourism

Impacts:

—Flooding: every year continental waters from heavy rain produce flooding along the Pacific side. It is expected
that SLR will increase the flooded areas. A general estimation indicates that the land loss from inundation could
be approximately 750 km2 (75,000 Ha).

—Increase in salinity for estuaries and canals would produce a biochemical effect, and some sectors of the estuaries
and canals would disappear due to the fact that sandy bars are not higher than 1 m.

—Damage to infrastructures has already been observed. Building of Port Qietzal could have contributed to this
damage, however, lack of adequate legislation, preventing people from building their houses in a risk zone, may
have also contributed.

—Ecosystems could be affected by the change in the composition of the estuarine waters and change in the
physical conditions.

Estimation of damages:
Two types of damages can be estimated: direct (effects on infrastructures and loss of money are involved) and

indirect (the result from loss of income and productivity).

Case study:

 

Effects On 35 km of coastline nearby port Qietzal and port San Jose

 

Direct Indirect

 

Approximately 500,000 people affected:
140,000 workers

3,000 millions of US$ lost for Guatemaula's
GNP due to impacts on agriculture and
fishing.

Hotels, refinery and petroleum deposits and
ports US$350 million of 1996

 

80,000 houses Migration toward larger cities of the interior

 

Natural resources‘ impacts were not
quantified.

 

 

 

 

Volume 2: Country Studies Report l 93

 

II. B Honduras

Honduras has 163 km of coast along the Pacific (Gulf of Fonseca) and 680 km along the Caribbean. The
Caribbean coast is divided in three regions: Occidental Caribbean coast, Oriental Caribbean coast and the bay
Islands (figure 3).

The area selected for the study in Honduras is the Occidental Caribbean coast, and as the priority zone from the
border with Guatemala to the city of Port La Ceiba (figure 3). In the past, erosion problems and floodings have
been reported, particularly on the Sula Valley, which is a highly populated area and where most of the industry
and banana plantations are located.

The priority zone is divided in five sectors: Omoa bay, Cortés bay, Punta Caballos—Punta Sol coast,Tela bay and
Punta Isopo—La Ceiba coast (figure 3).

Main characteristics of the study zone:

- On the Caribbean coast it is possible to find large sandy beaches, coastal lagoons and wetlands, as compared to
the Pacific coast, which consists mostly of mangroves.

—The Caribbean coast is very sensitive to the effect of hurricanes. Three hurricanes and more than eight tropical
storms have affected directly this coast during this century.

-Many estuaries and costal lagoons are severely affected by heavy fishing activities, destruction of mangrove and
pollution by agro—chemical products and organic wastes.

-Agriculture is very important, particularly for exportation of crops (bananas), and has a direct effect on the
population density and the development of large cities.

Impacts:

For the estimation of vulnerability of the study areas due to beach erosion, several transects were made for beach
erosion. Table 2 summarizes the potential loss from erosion for the next 25 years if no protection measures were
taken.

The more vulnerable areas from flooding associated to SLR are shown in table 3.

 

 

 

 

 

Table 2.
Area Affected area Area lost by erosion (m2)
Masca’s beach 1,779
I Muchilena's beach 10,144
Mill-Dos' beach 984
From Villa Hermosa‘s beach to Colonia 20,780
III Vacacmnal
Low tide shoreline 7,084
From Tela rivers' beach to Grande‘s beach 400
IV
Beaches from Ensenada (Tela) 21,000
Total 62,185

 

 

 

 

 

94 I Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

 

Table 3.

Affected area Flooded area ( Km2 )
— Valle de Sula 885
— Valle de Cuyamel 39
— Punta Gorda 3
- Omoa

— Tulian 3
— Port Cortes 20
- Bay de Tela 46
— Valle de Rio Lean 100
— LLanura de Esparta a La Ceiba 178
Total 1,276

One important consideration regarding sea level rise in this area is the high dependance on ground water.
Fifty—six per cent of the water for the city of San Pedro Sula, the industrial capital of Honduras, is ground water;
close to 700 wells extract 395,000 m3 per day. Therefore, one of the main problems produced by SLR would be

the intrusion of salty water.

ILC Nicaragua

The study area for Nicaragua is located along the Pacific watershed. This is the region with the highest population
density for the country, containing fertile soils, a warm sub tropical type of climate and wide heterogeneous
coast of sedimentary origin. The Pacific region represents 15% of the national territory with 62% of the population.
The Pacific coast of Nicaragua extends from the Gulf of Fonseca (estuaries’ Torrecillas) to the estuaries Real.
The study zone has an area of 5,842 ka and a population of 610,000 inhabitants (1993). After the analyses of
the complete pacific coastline and in agreement with the criteria expressed before, four priority zones were

selected (figure 4):

Punta Cosiguina —]iquilillo
Punta Aposentillo-Sandino Port
Montelimar—Tupilapa

San Juan del Sur Bay

Within these priority zones, seven critical areas were established. Table 4 presents some characteristics for the
zones and the impacts for these locations.

Volume 2: Country Studies Report I 95

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 4.
Beach sites Study area (Ha) ‘iliziibiggt fail)“ Vulnerability Mailshicgi‘tity in

La Boquita 4,153 0-2 mayor tourism, fishing
Casares 3,921 0-3 minor fishing
Masachapa 6,440 0-4 minimum tourism, fishing
Pochomil 5,910 0-5 minimum tourism
Montelimar 4,604 0-3 minimum tourism
Poneloya 8,142 0-4 minimum tourism
San Juan del Sur 13,947 0—5 minimum :‘gfiigfr’ce
Total 47,117

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Based on the analyses for the critical areas, the two places that could have larger impacts associated to SLR are:
“La Boquita and Casares.” These impacts are due to flooding.

II. D Panama

The study area for Panama is located toward the northwest of the Gulf of Panama, from El Rompio (Los
Santos Province) to the Pocora river (Panama province), representing 240 km of coastline, figure 5. Three
critical zones were identified within this area: Panama (Panama and Pedregal), Chame (Chame bay, Nueva

Gorgona and Farallon) and Parita (Aguadulce, Boca Parita, Parita bay).

The following tables present the total area under the contour lines of 10, S and 1 meter. It has been estimated
that close to 57 km2 would be exposed to flooding under the 1 m. SLR scenario.

Table 5. a. Critical area 1. Lost of land by flooding

 

 

L t' Area under 10 m Area under 5 m Area under 1 m
oca ion contour line (km2) contour line (km2) contour line (km2)
Panama 57 32 2

 

Pedre gal l 06 54 2

 

 

 

 

 

 

96 W Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

Table 5.b. Critical area 2. Lost of land by flooding and affected by erosion

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Location Area under 10 m Area under 5 m Area under 1 m
contour line (km2) contour line (km2) contour line (km2)
Chame 65 32 10
Rio Hato 23 l erosion
San Carlos 1 Cliff area erosion
Table 5. c. Critical area 3. Lost of land by flooding

 

Location

Area under 10 m
contour line (km2)

Area under 5 m
contour line (km2)

Area under 1 m
contour line (km2)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Boca de Parita 56 38 11
Bay de Parita 22] 152 26
Aguadulce 84 39 6

 

 

II. E El Salvador

The coastline of El Salvador, which stretches only along the Pacific ocean, has a length of 330 km, starting at
Paz river (border with Guatemala) and continuing to the Gulf of Fonseca. The study zone has been determined
by the 20 m contour line, however, some sectors (1 and 3) contained information from the 10 m contour line.

This region contains the coastal plains occasionally interrupted by mountainous areas which are part of the
coastal range. Along the plains, there are beaches, sand bars, estuaries and mangroves. Close to the coastline
there is a lot of agriculture activity, mostly annual crops, urban centers, ports and tourism infrastructure.

The study zone was divided into seven sectors, figure 6. Each sector was studied and categorized according with
the potential impact of SLR. Sectors 1,3,5, and 7 correspond to flat zones. Sectors 2,4 and 6 correspond to

mountainous zones. The main categories used for these impact classification were:
Soil: related with the possibility of flooding.
Water: related with ground water and physical changes on estuaries, river deltas, swamps, etc
Vegetation: related with changes in mangroves and beach vegetation.
Fauna: related with coastal biodiversity.
Population: related with human settlements.
Infrastructure: related with damages to the houses, hotels, ports and any kind of infrastructure.

Economics: related with direct effect on human activities that depend on infrastructure, for example: hotels,

and ports.

Agriculture: related with effects of flooding on agricultural land.

 

 

Volume 2: Country Studies Report ill 97

 

Table 6. Presents a general summary of the information for the more vulnerable sectors: 1,3,5, and 7

 

Category Observations Vulnerability

 

Soil -Flooding: sectors 1 and 3, sectors 5 and 7 less Severe to critical
probable.
-Islands with elevations of 0.5 m

 

Water -Estuaries, river mouths, swamps, and Severe to critical
groundwater are the main feature in sectors 1 and
3 where the impacts can be more noticable.

 

Vegetation -Mangroves and beach vegetation in sector 3. Severe to critical

 

Fauna —Abundant and rich in coastal biodiversity, sector Severe to critical
3. One of the most important wildlife sites.

 

Population -Sectors l and 3 presents important settlements Severe to critical
placed under 1 m contour line.

 

Infrastructure —In sectors 1, 3 and 5 are located the most Severe to critical
important tourism, housing and commercial
infrastructure.

-In sectors 3 and 7 some salt fields could be
affected.

 

Agriculture -Effect of flooding on agricultural land would Severe to critical
occur in sectors 1 and 3.

 

Economic -Sectors 1 and 3, more affected due to the large Severe to critical
amount of resources located in these areas.

 

 

 

 

 

II. F Costa Rica

The coastline of Costa Rica is 1.086 km along the Pacific and 212 km along the Caribbean.

The proximity of the Pacific coast to a high volcanic range, the large tectonic activity and the intense precipitation,
have contributed to form a coast with a great morphological diversity. The main features are gulfs, estuaries, and
in front of the large flat lands important mangroves have developed.

Most of the population is concentrated around the main ports: Limon in the Caribbean and Puntarenas in the
Pacific. However, both coastal zones are important for the tourism activity, which represents the main source of
income for the country.

The study areas for Costa Rica are concentrated along the Pacific coast from Salinas bay to the Terraba river
delta, figure 7. This study area has been divided in segments in order to study its vulnerability (Table 7).

98 I Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

Table 7. Segments for study area in Costa Rica

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Segments Areas
1 Punta Conventillos — Punta Virador (Punta Mala)
2 Punta Virador - Cabo Velas
3 Cabo Velas - Punta Guiones
4 Punta Guiones — Punta Guastomate
5 Punta Guastomate - Punta Manzanillo de Ario
6 Punta Manzanillo - Punta Cuchillo
7 VPunta Cuchillo - Cabo Blanco de Lepanto
8 Cabo Blanco - Boca del rio Barranca
9 Boca del rio Barranca — Punta Judas
10 Punta Judas - Punta Dominica]
11 Puma Dominical - Boca del rio Balso
12 Boca del rio Balso - Boca del rio Slerpe
13 Boca del rio Sierpe - Cabo Matapalo
14 Cabo Matapalo - Punta Rincon
15 Puma Rincon - Gofito
16 Golfito — Punta Banco
17 Puma Banco - Punta Burica

 

 

 

 

Impacts

One of the more unstable areas is segment 12. There, the effect of SLR is uncertain, two very important rivers
drain a great deal of sediments , forming wide deltas. Therefore, the impacts in this area will be more determined
by the management of the basins than the rise of sea level.

Along segment 10, 70% of the shoreline would move inland in approximately 75 m. In this area, there are many
recreational houses that might be affected as well as rice fields and cattle grazing.

Segment 9 is one of the more developed areas regarding tourism and recreation houses. Even though it is not
considered highly affected by shoreline transgression or flooding, approximately 22% of the hotels are located
within risky areas.

Segment 8 corresponds to the interior of Nicoya Gulf where the possibility of flooding is great. Some 5,700 Ha
could be affected. However, danger for transgression is small, 74% of the segment is covered by mangroves
presenting little effects of strong waves and large sedimentation. Located within this segment is the city of
Puntarenas which is densely populated and that could be affected periodically by flooding tides. This would

present serious sanitation problems.

Very similar to segment 10, segment 5 might be affected by flooding and transgression. The shoreline would
move inland approximately 75 m; however, the area is not very developed.

Segment 1 would present impacts associated to flooding and transgression, however, only a few development
areas are present in this segment.

The other segments would be less affected by impacts associated to SLR, with the exception of some small
cities located very close to the shoreline which may suffer some effect due to transgression.

Volume 2: Country Studies Report I 99

 

II. G Belize

The selection of study zones along the shoreline of mainland Belize was based on: population considerations,
the level of infrastructure development, and economic importance of shoreline areas.

The landscape of Belize is described as a low—lying shelf occupying an embayed area on the eastern side of the
Central American isthmus. Much of the southern half of Belize has been uplifted some 1,000 meters, forming
the dominant mass, known as the Maya Mountains. The main divide of the Maya Mountains separates the
steep ungraded streams, which drop down to the coastal plain within less than 12 kilometers, from the better
graded streams which flow westward towards the Peten in Guatemala but meanders back into northern Belize.

For the purpose of this assessment, the coastline of mainland Belize was divided into four sections based on
geo—physical settings. These, which are an amalgamation of some of High’s (1969) physiographic provinces are:
the Northern Coast; Northern Lagoons and Wetlands; Central Lagoons and Deltas; and Southern Marshes.
Within each section lagoons; wetlands, including mangrove swamps and grass marshes; bluffs; and beaches were
delineated, figure 8.

Impacts

A preliminary assessment of areas subject to erosion and inundation was made using the videotape record,
described in the methodology, and local information. Evidence of erosion is seen on the southern side of Belize
City particularly in the Yarborough Field area. Information concerning erosion was received from Dangriga,
Monkey River, and also of a small section north ofPunta Ycacos. The videotape record shows severe erosion on
the southern coast between Moho River mouth and Barranco Village as evidenced by significant stretches of
black mangroves falling over.

Information on salt water intrusion is limited, however it is a significant issue due to the growing demand for
potable water in the coastal area. In many villages, especially on cays and the sandy peninsula, rapidly increasing
populations, mostly tourists, have caused water shortage. Drawing down the water table caused salt water
intrusion in some areas and has become particularly acute in Placencia and San Pedro, Ambergris Caye. With
increased water demand and use there is a similar increase in problems of disposal. Contamination of potable
water supplies by fecal material has been reported for both San Pedro and Placencia. This underscores the need
to begin to monitor these parameters in order for the authorities to be able to take appropriate actions to address
the resulting problems.

Most of the coast of mainland Belize can be categorized as wetlands and lagoons. Consequently, most of the
coast should be subject to inundation analysis for estimates of land loss. The contour information on the
topographic map, however, is graduated in 20m; because the entire coastal plain of Belize is less than 20 meters
in height it is not clear what areas will be inundated given particular sea—level rise scenarios. It may be possible,
as attempted in this study, to extrapolate to the general areas fringing existing coastal wetlands as those areas that
will be impacted by initial sea level rise. However, to ascertain the actual physical extent of land loss that could
occur given certain scenarios is not possible at this time because of the existing contour information is inadequate.
No field profiles were prepared for areas subject to inundation. Estimates of land loss due to inundation were
therefore made based only on archival and theoretical information.

Estimates of vulnerability, i.e. land loss, to sea level rise was assessed for beach erosion and for inundation.
Land loss due to erosion was determined for selected beaches using the Bruun rule. Survey measurements of
dune heights were taken, and estimates of the active profile were made from bathymetric charts for Bruun rule
application.

100 m Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

Based on these figures, shoreline retreat caused by sea level rise was estimated for a rise of 4 cm in 25 years, 30
cm in 50 years, and 50 cm in 100 years. Calculations of shoreline retreat indicate that the beaches at the shores
east of Manatee and Dangriga would be completely eroded away with the given sea level rise for the next 100
years, while only half of the beaches at Placencia and Punta Ycacos would be eroded over the same time, figure 8.
These are estimates based only on sea level rise due to global warming; other factors contributing to sea level
change was not considered.

Land loss due to inundation (figure 9) was estimated using the Natural Vegetation Map for Belize. These were
based on assumptions that areas of coastal wetlands would be lost in the event of a one—meter sea level rise, and
that adjacent freshwater swamps and marshes would also be impacted by migration of coastal vegetation. To
obtain a more accurate estimate of land loss due to inundation better contour information is necessary.

1 This article is a summary from the country study reports produced for the Central America
Project on Climate Change, coordinated by the Regional Committee on Hydraulic Resources, the Central
America Commission on Environment and Development, and the United States Country Study Program.

Volume 2: Country Studies Report I 101

 

 

Appendices

102 I Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

Appendix A: Workshop Agenda

 

Workshop Goals and Objectives

My;
° Update participants on latest developments from the FCCC and IPCC, including coastal findings,
vulnerability assessment methodologies, response options, and adaptive measures.
° Country and other presentations.
° Introduce guidelines for incorporating ICM into national climate change action plans.

DayZ

' Panel presentations on elements of coastal management required for addressing climate change impacts.

Day 3
° Workin rou breakout sessions to elaborate the uidelines to incor orate ICM into national action
g g P ‘ ' g P
plans and national communication reports for the FCCC.

Day 4
' Field trip highlighting ICM issues of island nations.

Day 5

' Finalization and adoption of guidelines developed by workshop attendees.

Volume 2: Country Studies Report W 103

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Time Event Place Moderators/Panelists
Sunday, 23 February
12:00—1200 p.m. Workshop Outside Workshop
4:00—8:00 pm. preregistration Secretariat on B2
12:45 pm. Optional complimen- Side entrance of
tary tour of National Howard Plaza
Palace Musuem Hotel
1:00-4:30 pm. Tour
4:30 pm. Bus to Howard
Plaza Hotel
Monday, 24 February
7:30-8:30 am. Orientation breakfast for Atrium Lounge--
Panel 1 and 2 mode- 1st Floor
rators and panelsists
8:00 am. Workshop registration Outside of
Workshop
Secretariat on B2
9:00—10:00 am. Welcoming remarks Banquet Hall on Dr. Ling Yuan Chen, Chinese
B2 Taipei
Dr. Shih—Chien Young, Chinese
Taipei
Mr. Allen Choate, Hong Kong
Dr. Hsung—Hsiung Tsai, Chinese
Taipei
Dr. Robert Dixon, United States
10:00-10: 15 am. Break

 

10:15-10:45 am.

”Goals of the Workshop:
Introduction of
Guidelines for
Incorporating ICM into
National Action Plans"

Banquet Hall on
B2

Mr. Charles Ehler, United States

 

 

 

10:45 a.m.— Panel 1-"Update on the Banquet Hall on Moderator: Mr. Luitzen szlsma,

12:15 pm. Coastal Findings of the B2 The Netherlands
IPCC and Vulnerability Dr. Nobuo Mimura, Japan
Assessment Mr. Luitzen Bijlsma, The
Methodologies" Netherlands

12:15—1 :30 pm. Luncheon-"Climate Dragon Hall-3rd Prof. Robert Knecht, United States

 

Change and ICM:
Putting It All Together“

 

floor

 

 

 

104 I Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Time Event Place Moderators/Panelists
Monday, 24 February
(continued)
1:30-3:00 pm. Panel 2-"Developing Dragon Hall - 3rd Moderator: Dr. Joesph Huang, United
Response Options and floor States
Adaptive Measures”
Small Island Perspective Ms. Heidi Primo, Consultant on
Climate Change
Continental Shoreline Prof. Ryszard Zeidler, Poland
Perspective
Delta Perspective Prof. Mohamed El-Raey, Egypt
Regional Perspective Mr. James Aston, Western Samoa
3:00—3:15 pm. Break
3:15-5:45 pm. Country Experience 4th floor
(three concurrent Presentations
sessions)
3:15—4:45 pm. Deltas Room 403 Moderator: Prof. M. El-Raey, Egypt
Mr. Abdul Malek, Bangladesh
3: 15—445 p.m. Islands Room 403 Moderator: Ms. Heidi Primo,
Consultant on Climate Change
Mr. Paulo Vanualailai, Fiji
Dr. M.F. Rahardjo, Indonesia
Dr. Rosa T. Perez, Philippines
3: 15-5230 p.m. Continental Shorelines- Room 405 Moderator: Prof Ryszard Zeidler,
Session I Poland
Mr. Gerardo M.E. Perillo, Argentina
Ms. Orfelina Araya Nunez, Chile
Mr. Maximilian Campos Ortiz, Costa
Rica
Mr. Jose Diaz—Andrade, Costa Rica
Dr. Are Kont, Estonia
Mr. Julius Wellens-Mensah, Ghana
Mr. David Chemane, Mozambique

 

 

Volume 2: Country Studies Report W 105

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Time Event Place Moderators/Panelists
Monday, 24 February
(continued)
3:15-5:30 p.m. Continental Shorelines— Room 404 Moderator: Dr. Joseph Huang,
Session 11 United States
Mr. Salem Abdullah Al-Jafaili,
Oman
Ms. Isabelle Niang-Diop, Senegal
Dr. Sieuwnath Naipal, Suriname
Dr. Nawarat Krairapanond, Thailand
Eng. Andres Saizar, Uruguay
Ms. Maria de Lourdes Olivo,
Venezuela
6:30 p.m. Reception and Howard Plaza,
Exhibition of ICM Banquet Hall
Tools Section 3, B2
Tuesday, 25 February
7:30-8:30 am. Orientation breakfast Atrium Lounge-
meeting for opening lst floor
speakers, moderators.
and panelists on Panels
3. 4, 5, 6, and 7
8:30-8:50 am. ”Progress and Banquet Hall (B2) Mr. Luitzen Bijlsma, The
Accomplishments Netherlands
Toward ICM Since
WCC‘93”
8:50—10:20 am. Panel 3-“Principles and Banquet Hall (B2) Moderator: Mr. Charles Ehler,

Their Role in ICM and
in National Climate
Change Action Plans"

United States
Mr. Robert Knecht, United States
Mr. Sefanaia Nawadra, Fiji
Dr. Chua Thia—Eng, Philippines

 

10:20—10:35 am.

Break

 

 

 

10:35 a.m.- Panel 4-"Improving the Banquet Hall (B2) Moderator: Dr. Cy C. Chen,
12:00 p.m. Scientific and Chinese Taipei
Information Base for Prof. Haruyuki Kojima, Japan
ICM” Mr. Charles Ehler, United States
12200-1230 p.m. Luncheon Dragon Hall — 3rd

 

 

floor

 

 

 

106 I Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Time Event Place Moderators/Panelists
Tuesday, 25 February
(continued)
1:30—2:45 pm. Panel 5—Special Session Banquet Hall (B2) Moderator: Dr. Robert R. Hwang,
on Chinese Taipei Chinese Taipei
Coastal Issues
"Comprehensive Mr. Nein—Hsiun Kuo, Chinese
Planning and Taipei
Management System of
the Coastal Zone in
Chinese Taipei"
"Mitigation of MirvTuor Prof. Gin-Dung Kuo, Chinese
Coastal Area" Taipei
"Identity Change: The Dr. James Liu, Chinese Taipei
Tale of the Coastal
Depositional System of
a Small Mountainous
River in Chinese
Taipei”
"Sea Level Change and Mr. Hsiun—Wen Chen, Chinese
Coastal Erosion in West Taipei
Chinese Taipei"
General Discussion of
Chinese Taipei Coastal
Management Issues
2:45—3:00 pm. Break
3:00-4:00 pm. Panel 6-"Education and Banquet Hall (B2) Moderator: Mr. Robin South, Fiji
Training” Ms. Miriam Balgos, Philippines
3:45—4:30 pm. Panel 7-”Expanding the Banquet Hall (B2) Moderator: Dr. Chua Thia—Eng,
Range of Incentives for Philippines
Financing and Mr. Rodney Weiher, United States
Implementing
Managment Stratgies"
4:30—5:45 pm. Panel 8-"Improving Banquet Hall (B2) Moderator: Dr. Biliana Cicin-Sain,
Institutional United States
Capabilities and Dr. Sefanaia Nawadra, Fiji
Consensus Building” Dr. Nien—Tsu Hu, Chinese Taipei
Mr. Nissanka Perera, Sri Lanka
5:45-6:00 pm. Review of the Breakout Banquet Hall (B2) Mr. Charles Ehler, United States
Sessions' Objectives

 

 

4‘ fl, -‘

,re

Volume 2: Country Studies Report I 107

 

 

Time

Event

Place

Moderators/Panelists

 

Wednesday,

26 February

 

8:00-9:00 am.

Breakfast meeting for
session chairs and
rapporteurs

 

8:30— a.m.—
12:00 pm.

Breakout work sessions

"Principles of ICM"

“Improving the
Scientific and
Information Base of
ICM"

. "Improving

Institutional
Capabilities and
Consensus Building”

"Education and
Training”

"Finanacing and
Implementing
Management
Strategies"

Room 401

Room 402

Room 403

Room 404

Room 405

Chair: Prof. Robert Knecht, United
States

Chair: Dr. Nobuo Mimwa, Japan

Chair: Dr. Biliana Cicin-Sain,
United States

Chair: Mr. Robin South, Fiji

Chair: Mr. Rodney Weiher, United
States

 

12200-1130 p.m.

Luncheon—"A View to
the Ocean Engineering
Problems Around
Taiwan"

Dragon Hall - 3rd
floor

Prof. Chun-Tsung Wang, Chinese
Taipei

 

1:30—3:00 pm.

Breakout work sessions

Rooms 401 —405

 

3:00—3:15 pm.

Break

 

 

3: 15—5z00 p.m.

 

Breakout work sessions

 

Room 401-405

 

 

 

108 E Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Report and Next Steps

Time Event Place Moderators/Panelists
Thursday, 27 February
8:30 a.m.- Field trip to coast Transportation pro—
3:30 pm. Vided from Howard
Plaza Hotel
5:30 pm. Meet at Howard
Plaza Hotel for
transport to
Formosa Regent
Taipei
6:30 pm. Closing banquet Formos Regent
Taipei, Banquet
Hall Section A, 3rd
floor
Friday, 28 February
8:00-9:00 am. Orientation breakfast
meeting for speakers
8:00-9:00 am. Participants have Banquet Hall (B2)
opportunity to read
draft report
9:00-10:30 am. Adoption of Draft Facilitators:

Mr. Charles Ehler, United States

Prof. Robert Knecht, United States

Dr. Nobuo Mimura, Japan

Dr. Biliana Cicin—Sain, United
States

Mr. Robin South, Fiji

Mr. Rodney Weiher, United States

 

10:30—10:45 am.

Break

 

10:45-11:30 a.m.

Continuation of Draft
Report Adoption and

Banquet Hall (B2)

 

 

 

 

 

floor

 

Next Steps
11:30 a.m.- Closing remarks Banquet Hall (B2) Dr. Ling Yuan Chen, Chinese
12:00 pm. Taipei
Mr. Ta Hsiung Lin, Chinese Taipei
Dr. Joseph Huan, United States
Mr. Charles Ehler, United States
[2:00—1:30 pm. Closing lunch Dragon Hall —3rd

 

 

Volume 2: Country Studies Report I 109

 

Appendix B: Workshop Participants

 

Argentina

Dr. Gerardo M.E. Perillo

Senior Researcher

Instituto Argentino de Oceaongrafia
Avenida Alem 53

8000 Bahia Blanca

Argentina

Phone (54—91) 23555/ 558431
Fax (54-91) 20254/ 88—3933
E-mail perillo@criba.edu.ar

Bangladesh

Mr. Abdul Malek

Assistant Chief

Ministry of Environment and Forest
Bangledesh Secretariat, Dhaka
Dhaka

Bangladesh

Phone 880-2-867472

Fax 880—2-869210

Dr. Ivan Raev

Forest Research Institute

132, St. Kliment Ohridski Blvd.
1756 Sofia

Bulgaria

Phone 359 2-622 961

Fax 359 2—622 965

91.1116

Ms. Orfelina Araya Nunez
Marine Biologist
National Commission on Environment of Chile
Obispo Donoso No. 6, Providencia
Santiago
Chile
Phone 56 2 2405608
Fax 56 2 2441262
E-mail tewelinq@tmrn.cl
laraya@conama.cl

Costa Rica

Dr. Jose M. Diaz-Andrade

Marine Advisor

Instituto Meteorologico de Costa Rica
Ap 556—2400

Costa Rica

Phone 506-259—8998

Fax 506-223-1837

E—mail jodiaz@irazu.una.ac.cr

Lic. Maximiliano Campos Ortiz

Central America Project on Climate Change
PO. Box 21—2300 Curridabat

San Jose

Costa Rica

Phone 506-231—5791/296—4641

Fax 506-296—0047

E—mail crrhcr@sol.racsa.co.cr

Egret

Prof. Mohamed El-Raey

University of Alexandria

Institute of Graduate Studies and Research
163, Horreya Avenue, Chathy 21526

PO. Box 832

Alexandria

Egypt

Phone 203-422-7688

Fax 203—421-5792

E-mail elraey@frcu.eun.eg

Estonia

Dr. Are Kont

Senior Researcher Institute of Ecology
181 Riia Street

EE2400 Tartu

Estonia

Phone 372—7—383—020

Fax 372—7—383—013

E—mail are@zbi.ee

110 in Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

Federated States of Micronesia

Ms. L. Heidi Primo

Office of the President

FSM Climate Change Program

PO. Box PS—121

Palikir, Pohnpei 96941

Federated States of Micronesia

or General Delivery Mountain View, HI 96771

Phone 691-320—2228 or 808—968—6942
Fax 691—320—2785
E—mail 104146.1333@c0mpuserve.c0m

Fiji

Mr. Sefanaia Nawadra

Fiji Country Study Supervisor
18 Richards Road

Domain

Suva

Fiji

Phone 679—313—933

Fax 679—301—189

Dr. Robin South

Director, Marine Studies Program
The University of the South Pacific
Suva

Fiji

Phone 679-305-272;679—305—446
Fax 679—301-490

E—mail south__r@usp.ac.fj

Mr. Paulo Vanualailai

Climate Change Project Coordinator
Department of Environment

18 Richards Road

PO. Box 2131, General Post Office
Suva

Fiji

Phone 679-311—699

Fax 679—312-879

ghana

Mr. Julius Wellens-Mensah

Hydrological Services Department

PO. Box 3969

Accra

Ghana

Phone 233—21—662296

Fax 233-21-663268
233—21-777170

Hoealégg
Mr. Allen Choate

Director of Program Development
Asia Foundation

Bank of America Tower

12 Harcourt Road

Hong Kong

Phone 852—2847-5231

Fax 852—2847—5229

E-mail 702-3875@mcimail.com

Indonesia

Dr. M. F. Rahardjo

Faculty of Fisheries

Bogor Agricultural University
Kampus IPB

Darmaga, Bogor 16680
Indonesia

Phone 62—251-622—932 or 923
Fax 62—251-621-495
E-mail ikanmsp@indo.net.id

Jew

Prof. Haruyuki Kojima
Department of Civil Engineering
Kyushu Kyoritu University

1-8 Jiyugaoka

Yahatanishi—ku, Kitakyushy
Fukuoka 807

Japan

Phone 81-83—691—3331 ext. 465
Fax 81-93—603—8186

E—mail k0jima@kyuky0—u.ac.jp

Prof. Nobuo Mimura

Department of Urban and Civil Engineering
Ibaraki University

Nakanarusawa 4-12-1

Hitachi Ibaraki 316

Japan

Phone 81—294—38—5169

Fax 81—294—35—8146

E-mail mimura@hit.ipc.ibaraki.ac.jp

Mr. Kazuhito Yamada

Senior Researcher

Global Environment Research Team
Pacific Consultants Co., Ltd.
Shinjuku Daiichiseimei Building 6F
Nishishinjuku Shinjuku—ku

Tokyo 163—07

Japan

Phone 81—3—3344-1652

Fax 81-3—3344-1389

E—mail yamada@pacific.co.jp

Volume 2: Country Studies Report m 111

 

Dr. Hirornune Yokoki

Faculty of Engineering

Ibaraki University

Nakanarusawa 4—12—1

Hitachi Ibaraki 316

Japan

Phone 81-294-38-5219

Fax 81—294—35—8146

E—mail yokoki@hit.ipc.ibaraki.ac.jp

1149911198199

Mr. David Chemane

Av. Karl-Marx 153

C. Postal 2089

Maputo

Mozambique

Phone 258—1—430186/8

Fax 258—1-430185 or 258—1—465849

E-mail david@inahina.uem.mz

Oman

Mr. Salem Abdullah Al—Jufaili

Head of Marine Pollution Section

Ministry of Regional Municipalities and Environment
Sultanate of Oman

PO. Box 323

Muscat Code 113

Oman

Phone 968—696444

Fax 968—696460

Ellilieeiege

Ms. Miriam C. Balgos

International Center for Living Aquatic Resources
Management

MCPO Box 2631

0718 Makati City

Philippines

Phone (63 2) 818—0466 or 818-9283

Fax (63 2) 816-3183

E-mail m.balgos@cgnet.com

Prof. Roger C. Birasel
Earthsavers Movement

PH28 Yulo Plaza

Don Bosco Cor. Pasong Tamo
Mekati City

Philippines

Phone 632 527-7771—74

Fax 632 527—1409

E—mail earthsavers@apc.ngo.phil

Dr. Rosa Perez

Natural Disaster Reduction Branch, PAGASA

1424 Asiatrust Bank Building

Qiezon Avenue

Qiezon City 1104

Philippines

Phone 632—922-19—92

Fax 632—926—31-51 or 922—19—96

E-mail rtp@sun1.dost.gov.ph
laapagasa@pdx.rpnet.com
pagasa@mail.ph.net

Dr. Chua Thia-Eng

Programme Manager, GEF/UNDP/ IMO

Regional Programme for the Prevention and of Marine
Pollution in the East Asian Seas

PO. Box 2502

1165, @ezon City 1100

Philippines

Phone 632-926-9712

Fax 632—926—9712

E-mail imo@klink.com.ph

Institute of Hydro—Engineering
Polish Academy of Sciences
Koscierska 7

80—953 Gdansk

Poland

Phone (4858) 522011

Fax (4858) 524211

E-mail zeidler@hapcio.ibw.gda.pl

§sra€gel

Dr. Isabelle Niang—Diop

Dept. de Geologic, Faculté des Sciences
University CA. Diop

Dakar-Fann

Senegal

Phone 221-35 62 73 (home)

Fax 221-24 63 18

E-mail energy2@enda.sn

Sri Lanka

Mr. Nissanka Perera

Director

Coast Conservation Department

4th Floor, Maligawatta Secretariat
Colombo 10

Sri Lanka

Phone 94—1 449755 or.94-71-39771
Fax 94—1—438005

112 W Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

Suriname

Dr. Sieuwnath Naipal

Deputy Head

Hydraulic Research Division
Magnesiumstr. 41

Paramaribo

Suriname

Phone 597—490—963 or 492—039
Fax 597—490-627

Thailand

Dr. Nawarat Krairapanond

Environmental Official

Natural Resources and Environmental Management
Coordination Division

Office of Environmental Policy and Planning

60/1 Soi Phibunwattana 7, Rama 6 Road
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400

Thailand

Phone 662-279-9182 or 279-5202

Fax 662—271—3226

The Netherlands

Mr. Luitzen Bijlsma

Deputy Director/Managing Director

National Institute for Coastal and Marine Management
RIKZ Managing of the Coastal Zone Management
Centre

PO. Box 20907

2500 EX The Hague

The Netherlands

Phone 31 70 3114 373 or 3114 371

Fax 31 70 3114 380

E—mail l.bijlsma@rikz.minvenw.nl

Dr. Joella P. van Ryn

Program Officer

Netherlands Climate Change Assistance Program
Coastal Zone Management Center
Kortenaerkade 1

PO. Box 20907

2500 EX The Hague

The Netherlands

Phone 31 70 3114 378

Fax 31 70 3114 or 380/ 3464 378

E-mail j.p.vryn@rikz.minvenw.nl

United States

Dr. Biliana Cicin—Sain

Co—Director and Professor

Center for the Study of Marine Policy
University of Delaware

Newark, DE 19716-3501

United States

Phone 302—831—8086

Fax 302—831—3668

E-mail bcs@udel.edu

Dr. Robert Dixon

U.S. Country Studies Program
PO—6, GP—169

1000 Independence Ave, SW.
Washington, DC 20585
United States

Phone 202-586—3003

Fax 202-586—3435
E-mail rdixon@ipc.apc.org

Mr. Charles N. Ehler

NCAA/Office of Ocean Resources Conservation and
Assessment

1305 East—West Highway, N/ORCA

Silver Spring, MD 20910

United States

Phone 301-713—2989 extension 121

Fax 301—713-4389

E-mail cehler@spur.nos.noaa.gov

Dr. Joseph Huang

U.S. Country Studies Program
PO—6, GP—169

1000 Independence Ave, SW.
Washington, DC 20585
United States

Phone 202—586-3090

Fax 202—586—3485
E—mail jhuang@ipc.apc.org

Prof. Robert Knecht

Co—Director and Professor

Center for the Study of Marine Policy
University of Delaware

Newark, DE 19716—3501

United States

Phone 302—831-8086

Fax 302-831—3668

E—mail robert.knecht@mvs.udel.edu

Volume 2: Country Studies Report I 113

 

Mr. Curt Mason

NOAA/ Coastal Services Center
2234 South Hobson Avenue
Charleston, SC 29405-2413
United States

Phone 803-974-6200

Fax 803—974—6297

E—mail cmason@csc.noaa.gov

Ms. Lynne Mersfelder

Office of External Affairs
NCAA/National Ocean Service

1305 East West Highway, N/ EA

Silver Spring, MD 20910

United States

Phone 301—713—3078 ext. 172

Fax 301—713—4263

E-mail lmersfelder@ocean.nos.noaa.gov

Ms. Kathryn L. Ries

Director, Office of External Affairs
NOAA/National Ocean Service
1305 East West Highway, N/ EA
Silver Spring, MD 20910

United States

Phone 301-713—3078 ext. 171
Fax 301-713—4263

E-mail kries@ocean.nos.noaa.gov

Dr. Rodney Weiher

NCAA/Office of Policy and Strategic Planning
Room 6117

14th Street and Constitution Avenue, N.W.
Washington, DC 20230

United States

Phone 202-482-5181

Fax 202-501-3024

E—mail rodneyfweiher@noaa.gov

93.15%

Eng. Andres Saizar

National Committee on Global Change

Ciudadela 1414, Piso 6

Montevideo 11100

Uruguay

Phone/Fax 598-2-93-20-88 or 598-2—92-2416
E-mail asaizar@chasque.apc.org

Venezuela

Ms. Maria de Lourdes Olivo

Climate Change Project

Ministry of Environment

Ministerio del Ambiente OSSPOA—DOT
Centro Simon Bolivar

El Silencio TorreSur, Piso 9

Caracas

Venezuela

Phone 582-578-0429

Fax 582-483-6118 or 582-662-8386
E—mail vebhm751@ibmmail.com

Vietnam

Mr. Pharn Dinh An

MSC in Meterology

International Cooperation Department
Hydrometeorological Service of Viet Nam
No. 4 Dang Thai Than Street

Hanoi

Vietnam

Phone (844) 825-3343

Fax (844) 826—0779

Western Samoa

Mr. James Aston

Coastal Management Officer

South Pacific Regional Environment Program
PO. Box 240

Apia

Western Samoa

Phone (685) 21 929

Fax (685) 20 231

E-mail jastpm@talofa.net

91.92556 Taipei,
Academia Sinica

Chang—p0 Chen
Professor, Institute of Zoology

Robert R. Huang
Professor, Institute of Physics

Kwang-Tsao Shao
Research Fellow and Director

Hsing-Juh Lin
Postdoctoral Research Fellow

114 m Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

Asia Foundation
Rex Wang

Chung Yuan Christian University
Chien-I Shan

Council offlgriculture
Wen-Yaw Miau

Executive Yuan

Chuan—An Wu
Senior Speicalist
Executive Yuan

Economic Planing and Development
Chien—Chung Chen
Specialist Council

Executive Yuan

I-Tsai Ma

Executive Yuan

Energy {9" Resources Laboratories, I TRI
Ching- Sung Chiu
Director

Ling-Yuang Chen

Director

Cy C. Chen
Deputy General Director

Jung—Hsien Weng
Researcher

Chuei—Jung Yen
Researcher

Jonathan Siah
Manager

Min Chu
Dr. Ker—Jen Ying

Jhy—Ming Lu
Director

Chung—Li Ma
Project Manager

Weng—Chin Lee

Researcher

Yi—Yuan Chang
Engineer

Sue—Mei Chang

Researcher
Tzong—Chyuan Lee
Tzu—Feng Tseng

C. F. Huang

Researcher
Shao—Hei Kao
Kuo—Pao Huang

T. B. Yuan

Foundation on Resources and
Environmental Protection Services
Chang-Peng Chen

Chairmen

H YTEK Eng. Consultants, Inc.
Jin S. J Kuo

President

Health, Welfare and Environmental Foundation
Dr. Ching-Chang Lee

IHM T
Ching—Her Hwang
Researcher, Chief of the Coastal Eng. Div.

Institute ongriculture
Wen—Juinn Chen

Associate Professor
National Chia—Yi

Institute of Harbor and Marine Technology
Chien-Kee Chang

Director

Jea-szy Juang
Deputy Director

Kaohsiung Municipal Government
Yu-Nion Lin

Secretary

Dept. of Environmental Protection

Ministry of EconomicAfi‘airs
Shiang-Kueen Hsu
Water Resources Bureau

Chi—Van Chin
Section Chief
Water Resources Bureau

Volume 2: Country Studies Report H 115

 

Herbert Lin
Commercial Secretary

7th Div, IDB

Yu-Chen Yuan
Commission of National Corporations

Kuen—Ming Chen
Water Resources Bureaau

Ministry of Interior

Ching—Fen Hsiao

Chief of National Park Department
Construction 8c Planning Administration

Ling Lin
Specialist
Construction 8; Planning Administration

Yaw—Yuan Lin
Section Leader
Construction 8; Planning Administration

Jr-Bin Chiou

Construction 8c Planning Administration

Bing—Shiu Lin
Construction 8c Planning Administration

Weng—Hung Liao
Construction 8c Planning Administration

Nien-Hsiung Kuo
Construction 8c Planning Administration

Wen—Chyi Song

National Central University
Henry S. Shen
Professor

National Cheng Kung University
Chin-Ton Kuo
Professor

National Ocean University
Prof. Hsien-Wen Li
Dean, College of Science and Engineering

China Petrochemical Development Corp.
Mei-Lan Yuan

National Taiwan University

Ming-Chung Lin

Professor and Chairman

Dept. of Naval Architective and Ocean Engineering

Professor Cho—Teng Liu
Institute of Oceanography

Shyuer-Ming Shih
Associate Professor
Institute of Oceanography

Chang—Yi Chang, Ph.D.
Department of Geography

Huey-Mei Sheu
Research Assistant
Department of Geography

Ling—Yuh Sheu
Research Assistant
Department of Geography

Wen—Chih Huang
Professor

Shiaw—Yih Tzang
Professor

Chiun-Tsung Wong

Professor

Ting— Kuei Ts ai

Professor

Cbinese Taipei EPA
Hsung—Hsiung Tsai
Administrator
Executive Yuan

Yi-Hsiung Wu
Deputy Administrator

Executive Yuan

Ta-Hsiung Lin
Depput Administrator
Executive Yuan

Hsiung-Wen Chen
Director General
Executive Yuan

Hui—Chuan Hsiao
Deputy Director General

Executive Yuan

116 I Volume 2: Country Studies Report

 

Shu—Hwei Fang
Senior Director
Executive Yuan

Fung—Luh Yeh
Director
Executive Yuan

Echung Chiang Wang

Executive Yuan

Cindy Lai
Specialist

Executive Yuan

Vito Lu

Executive Yuan

Bob Huang

Executive Yuan

Chao—Yu Chen

Executive Yuan

Chea-Yuan Young

Executive Yuan

Hai—Nin Yang, Ph.D.
Bureau of Water (luality Protection

Science E9” Technology fldvisory Group
Grobman Wen Lin

Researcher

Executive Yuan

Sinotecb Engineering Consultants, Ltd.
Chin—l Liu
Project Manager

Sun yat—Sen University
Tai—An P. Chen

Research Assistant

Office for Marine Policy Studies

Chen-Tong Chen

Professor

Shin Wang
Professor

Tzu-Chien Liu

Associate Professor

Tai-An Peter Chen
Research Assistant
Office for Marine Policy Studies

Taiwan Fisheries Consultants, Inc.
Shih-Ta Hsu
Manager, Engineering Department

Taiwan Power Company
Yueh-Yuan Tu

Director, Environmental Protection Department

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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