/A^n . ^ ; II 
 
 GOVERNMENT 
 CROP 
 
 REPO. 
 
 Sources of Informai 
 Methods of Preparation and Checking 
 Demonstrated Accuracy 
 
 UNlV OF Fl l'B. 
 n nruMgNTS PERT 
 
 SITORY 
 
 ''ashingloii, D. C. 
 
 Circular 17. Revised January. 1913 
 
 U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 
 BUREAU OF CROP ESTIMATES 
 
 LEON M. ESTABROOK Chkf 
 
 GOVERNMENT PRINTINQ OFFICE : 1918 
 
ORGANIZATION AND OFFICIALS OF THE BUREAU OF CROP 
 ESTIMATES. 
 
 Statistician and Chief: Leon M. Elstabrook. 
 
 Assistant Statistician and Assistant Chief: Nat C. Murray. 
 
 Chief Clerk: Charles E. Gage. 
 
 Division of Crop Reports: Edward Crane, Chief. 
 
 Division of Crop Records: Frank Andrews, Chief. 
 
 Field Service: S. A. Jones, Chief. 
 
 Statistical Scientists: George K. Holmes, Charles M. Daugherty, and 
 
 Fred J. Blair. 
 Crop Reporting Board: Leon M. Estabrook, Chairman; Nat C. 
 
 Murray, S. A. Jones, Frank Andrews, George K. Holmes, and one 
 
 or more fieid agents called in from the field force. 
 2 
 
GOVERNMENT CROP REPORTS. 
 
 r^ROP ESTIMATES which are reHable and un- 
 ^•^ biased are important not only to agriculture but 
 also to all those industries which depend upon agri- 
 cultural products. Public appreciation of accurate 
 crop reports is increasing, owing largely to improved 
 methods of marketing and distribution, and to a wider 
 public interest in food and feed which has developed 
 since the beginning of the European War. The follow- 
 mg statement gives the essential facts regardmg the 
 organization of the Bureau of Crop Estimates, its sources 
 of information, and the accuracy of its crop estimates. 
 
 THE MEN WHO SUPPLY INFORMATION 
 ABOUT CROPS. 
 
 Systematic care and scientific thoroughness charac- 
 terize the preparation of the Government crop reports, 
 but these would be useless without an efficient organiza- 
 tion and dependable sources of information. 
 
 The Washtngion force. — To begm with, the central 
 office of the Bureau of Crop Estimates, at Washington, 
 has approximately 135 employees, most of them statis- 
 tical clerks, computers, and trained statisticians expe- 
 rienced in handling and interpreting agricultural facts, 
 from whatever source they may be gathered. 
 
 Field agents. — Distributed over the country are 42 
 salaried field agents, one in each State or group of small 
 States. These field agents are in the classified civil 
 service and are appointed only after passing a rigid civil- 
 service examination to test their educational and statis- 
 tical qualifications. Before they are permitted to take 
 the civil-service examination they must show that they 
 have had at least five years' practical experience in 
 farming, an education equivalent to a four-year course in 
 an agricultural college or at least three years' responsible 
 practical experience in work involving statistical methods 
 or statistical inquiry. They must also be legal residents 
 of the States to which they are assigned. These agents 
 are all men of high character, qualified by training and 
 exp>erience for their work, competent judges of crop 
 
 3 
 
4 Government Crop Reports. 
 
 production, and familiar with local conditions in their 
 States. Each is required to travel over his State sys- 
 tematically during the crop season and personally to 
 inspect crops, interview farmers, representatives of com- 
 mercial houses, mills, elevators, buying and selling 
 associations of all kinds, transportation companies. State 
 and local authorities, and associations of every descrip- 
 tion; in fact, each is expected to be better informed on 
 crop production than any other man in the State. Each 
 agent enlists the voluntary services of from 250 to 1,500 
 selected crop correspondents in his State, who report to 
 him every month regarding the crops grown in the State. 
 At the close of each month the agent makes up a detailed 
 estimate on the crops in his territory and forwards it to 
 the Washington office, with full explanatory notes show- 
 ing the causes which have resulted in changes from the 
 estimates for the previous month. The field agent, 
 because of his constant travel and observation, his 
 thorough study and analysis, and his interviews with and 
 continuous reports from many of the most competent 
 judges of crops, has a thorough knowledge of the crop 
 situation in his State. 
 
 Crop specialists. — In addition to the regular field 
 agents, the bureau employs 10 crop specialists, 1 each 
 for cotton, rice, and tobacco, 4 for truck crops, and 3 
 for fruit crops. These crop specialists are of the same 
 high character, experience, and educational qualifica- 
 tions as the field agents, and each devotes his entire 
 time to investigating the single crop for which he is 
 responsible. They travel throughout the regions in 
 which their special crops are grown, maintain large lists 
 of growers, and each is regarded as an authority on the 
 statistics of his special crop. Lists are kept of growers 
 of special crops, who report at the close of each month 
 to the respective crop specialists, each of whom, in tum, 
 makes up a report and forwards it to the central office in 
 Washington. 
 
 County crop reporters. — A third class of reporters are 
 the voluntary county crop reporters, approximately 2,800 
 in number, each of whom reports for his county each 
 month on printed schedules directly to the bureau. 
 The county reporters base their estimates upon personal 
 observation and inquiry and upon written and telephonic 
 reports to them from aids in different portions of the county. 
 
Government Crop Reports. 3 
 
 Township crop reporters. — A fourth source of informa- 
 llon is the voluntary township reporters, one for each 
 agricultural township in the United States, approximately 
 30,220 in number. These township reporters are nearly 
 all practical farmers and each reports on the crops grown 
 in his immediate neighborhood directly to the central 
 office in Washington monthly throughout the year. 
 
 Special lists of growers, buyers, and others. — Addi- 
 tional sources of information exist in the bureau's special 
 lists of growers of potatoes, apples, cotton, beans, cran- 
 berries, peanuts, broom com, maple sirup, honey, cpecial 
 truck crops, and live stock, and in other lists of buyers, 
 dealers, mills and elevators, producers and shipping 
 associations, and other agencies engaged in the handling, 
 transporting, storing, and distribution of crops. 
 
 The total number of voluntary crop reporters is approxi- 
 mately 1 50.000. 
 
 HOW THE CROP INFORMATION IS TABU- 
 LATED IN WASHINGTON AND THE CROP 
 REPORTS MADE UP. 
 
 The returns from each class of reporters are tabulated 
 and averaged separately as a check one against the 
 other. The county totals are weighted; that is, a county 
 which produces five times as much of a particular crop as 
 another receives five times the importance or "weight" 
 of the other county in determining the average for that 
 crop. 
 
 Every possible precaution is taken to prevent the 
 totals for any of the so-called speculative crops, such as 
 corn, wheat, oats, barley, rye, cuid cotton, from becoming 
 known to any individual prior to the date fixed in advance 
 by the Secretary of Agriculture for the issuance of the 
 crop report. Even the tabulators and computers who 
 make up the totals do not knov.' the States to which they 
 pertain, and the final telegraphic reports and comments 
 of the field agents relating to the speculative crops are 
 kept locked in the office of the Secretary until crop- 
 reporting day, when they are tumed over to a Crop 
 Reporting Board, and the entire board is immediately 
 locked in until the minute that the refx)rt is issued, guards 
 being stationed at the doors, and all telephones discon- 
 nected. 
 
6 Government Crop Reports. 
 
 The data supplied by the field agents, crop specialists, 
 and various classes of voluntary crop reporters are con- , 
 sidered by the Crop Reporting Board, composed of the I 
 chief of bureau, the assistant chief of bureau, the chief of 
 the division of crop report*, two statistical scientists, and 
 one or more field agents called in from different States 
 each month, all of whom are expert judges of crops and 
 have had many years' exnerience in analyzing, inter- _ 
 preting, and summarizing crop data. In addition to the I 
 special data sent in each month by the field force, the 
 Crop Reporting Board has all other data which are 
 available, such as the Weather Bureau reports, and such 
 crop reports as are issued by State authorities, private 
 crop-estimating agencies, associations, and others. From 
 all these data each member of the board prepares his 
 own individual and independent estimate for each crop 
 and State. 1 hese are compared, discrepancies are dis- 
 cussed and explained, and a final figure is adopted by 
 the board. It is quite certain, therefore, that the Crop 
 Reporting Board has before it more complete, detailed, 
 and accurate data upon which to base its report than 
 any other crop-estimating agency in the world. The 
 members of the Crop Reporting Board are unbiased, 
 because they, as well as all other employees of the depart- 
 ment who have anything to do with the crop estimates, 
 are prohibited by law, under ver}' severe penalties, from 
 speculating in any product of the soil, from giving out 
 any information in advance of the official crop report, 
 and from knowingly compiling or issuing any false 
 statistics. 
 
 HOW REPORTS OF OTHER AUTHORITIES 
 PROVE THE ACCURACY OF THE CROP 
 REPORTS. 
 
 Wherever it is has been possible to secure an absolute 
 check, the crop reports of the Department of Agricul- 
 ture have usually been found to be surprisingly accurate. 
 Unfortunately, absolute checks are afforded at only long 
 intervals or for only a few crops, or for only a few States. 
 The principal checks which are available are as follows: 
 
 The census reports every 10 years. — The census reports 
 afford the most complete and authoritative crop statistics 
 available. They are especially valuable because they 
 cover acreage and production of all crops and different 
 
Government Crop Reports. 7 
 
 classes of live stcx:k. Theoretically they are actual 
 enumerations and are presumed to be accurate. Actually, 
 so far as t^ey relate to agriculture, they are estimates, 
 though based upon a larger number ot returns than the 
 crop reports ot the Bureau of Crop Estimates. Their 
 value is impaired somewhat by the long period of time 
 between censuses, the delay in printing the reports after 
 a census is taken, the different dales of reporting num- 
 bers of different classes of live stock, and the fact that 
 different methods of editing (correcting or omitting 
 imperfect retums) are adopted at different censuses. 
 Because of the imperfect retums and methods of dealing 
 with them, the agricultural totals of the census of 1900 
 were generally too high or those ot the census of 1910 
 were generally too low. The deficiencies of the last 
 census are recognized and discussed by the Director ot 
 the Census in his annual report for 1 9 1 2. A comparison 
 of the estimates of the Bureau of Crop Estimates with 
 the past census shows that they are in closer agreement 
 than are the crop reports or tax assessors' retums in most 
 of the States, and certainly far more nearly in agreement 
 than the estimates made by private agencies. 
 
 The annual census reports of cotton ginned. — The 
 Bureau of the Census is required by law to report every 
 bale of cotton that is ginned. These reports, therefore, 
 afford an absolute check on the estimates of the Depart- 
 ment of Agriculture for cotton. 
 
 Reports of State boards of agriculture and returns of 
 tax assessors. — Many of the States have boards ot agri- 
 culture or commissioners of agriculture who issue crop 
 reports at v.-^.rious intervals, and some of the States have 
 tax assessors' retums of crops and live stock. These 
 reports and retums would be extremely valuable as 
 checks upon the crop estimates of the Department of 
 Agriculture if they covered all crops and classes of live 
 stock, if they were based upon complete and accurate 
 data, if they were systematically prepared by competent, 
 well-trained, and experienced statisticians, if they were 
 issued every year and promptly, and if the retums were 
 made as of the same day in all the States. Unfortu- 
 nately this is not the case. Though in a few of the Slates 
 an attempt is made to meet the standard indicated, in 
 most of the States the tax assessors retums are incom- 
 plete, are rendered after long delays, and relate only to 
 certain crops and omit certain classes ot live stock. The 
 
8 Government Crop Reports. 
 
 returns in different States are made on different dates, 
 and in some States the retums are not published at all 
 or not until long after the close of the crop year to which 
 they pertain. In most of the States the officials in charge 
 of the crop statistics are not selected because of any special 
 fitness for the work, and in practically all of the States 
 the personnel is subject to frequent changes. The fact 
 that the State reports can not be used as a satisfactory 
 check upon the crop estimates of the Department of 
 Agriculture is readily apparent by comparing them with 
 the decennial census. However, while the crop totals 
 reported in some States can not be accepted as numerically 
 accurate, they are of value in showing the trend of crop 
 acreages and production from year to year; i. e., they 
 show in a general way whether the acreages plemted to 
 different crops and the numbers of different classes of 
 live stock on farms are increasing or decreasing from year 
 to year, and to what extent they can be used as a check 
 upon the estimates of the Department of Agriculture. 
 All crop reports and statistics issued by State authorities 
 are obtained as soon as published by the Bureau of Crop 
 Estimates, and the totals of the tax assessors' retums are 
 taken off from the State records by the field agents of 
 the bureau annually. These reports and tax data are 
 carefully analyzed and checked against the Government 
 reports by the Crop Reporting Board. 
 
 Private estimating agencies. — A number of private 
 crop-reporting bureaus make a business of preparing 
 estimates of the acreage and production of the so-called 
 speculative crops, corn, wheat, oats, rye, barley, and 
 cotion, and a few other crops, and many cf the larger 
 firms which deal in these products employ crop experts 
 at high salaries to keep them supplied with timely crop 
 information. Many producing associations which are 
 interested in special crops, such as apples, peaches, 
 potatoes, and the like, also prepare estimates from time 
 to time based on reports of their members. A number of 
 farm journals and trade papers also publish crop esti- 
 mates of their owr, based upon various sources of infor- 
 mation, principally from their subscribers. Though 
 many of these agencies employ men who are experienced 
 in judging crops and their estimates frequently are very 
 accurate, it is nevertheless true that few, if any, of them 
 have the facilities for collecting reliable data of crop 
 production at all comparable with those ot the Bureau 
 
Government Crop Reports. 9 
 
 of Crop Estimates, and their estimates often show the 
 effect of bias. Practically all of these estimates are 
 available to the bureau, either directly or through its 
 field agents, frequently before publication. They are 
 deemed of value as representing the consensus of opinion 
 of the "trade" and in most cases tend to confirm the 
 accuracy of the Bureau of Crop Estimates. 
 
 Returns from mills, etcoators, andstoraje warehouses. — 
 If complete returns were available for quantities of 
 grain, applet, potatoes, etc., stored in all the mills, ele- 
 vators, and warehouses of the country during the season, 
 they would afford an excellent check upon estimates of 
 crop production, but such returns as are available are 
 very incomplete. Some State laws require that products 
 held in storage shall be reported {periodically to the State 
 authorities, and where such reports are available they 
 are utilized by the Bureau of Crop Estimates. Unfor- 
 tunately many States do not require the reporting ot 
 products in storage, and there is no way of ascertaining 
 the quantities held in those States. The Bureau of 
 Markets in the Department of Agriculture is rapidly 
 developing a system of ascertaining and reporting quan- 
 tities of perishable products, such as apples, potatoes, 
 meats, butter, and eggs held in storage warehouses. 
 The reports issued by the Bureau of Markets will become 
 increasingly valuable as checks on estimates of production. 
 In the case of rice, the mills which handle all of this 
 product that is not retained by growers for seed are com- 
 paratively few in number, and it is possible to make a 
 complete canvass of them. Their total receipts in any 
 year plus a conservative estimate of the quantity retained 
 by growers for seed make an excellent check on the 
 estimate of production. 
 
 Beet-sugar factories, likewise, are comparatively few 
 in number, handle practically all the sugar beets produced 
 in the country, and keep accurate records of sugar-beet 
 acreage and production. The bureau obtains reports 
 from practically every beet-sugar factory in the United 
 States. Its estimates of acreage and production are 
 almost equivalent to an actual census, and are accepted 
 by the trade as highly accurate. 
 
 Crop movement. — Reports of the various transportation 
 companies to State and national authorities of the move- 
 ment of grain and other farm products are of value as 
 indexes only, not of total actual crop production but of 
 
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 ^^^|^!5!§^S%S!i!!^ 
 
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 ^^li^il III 
 
12 Government Crop Reports. 
 
 surpluses available for distribution through commercial 
 channels. Though a large percentage of the wheat 
 crop (60 per cent) moves out of counties where grown, it 
 is estimated that only about 20 per cent of the com crop, 
 30 per cent of the oat crop, and 40 to 50 per cent of the 
 apple crop, and similarly for other crops, is handled 
 commercially, the remainder being consumed on the 
 farms or in the counties where growTi. It is manifestly 
 impracticable to use such reports of crop movement as 
 are available as a satisfactory check on crop production, 
 but in the manner indicated such reports are of value as 
 indexes of crop surplus from year to year. 
 
 Exports. — Fairly accurate statistics of exports of farm 
 products, especially of grain, cotton, and animal products, 
 are furnished by the Department of Commerce. As in 
 the case oi transportation statistics, exports are of value 
 as indexes of crop surplus, but are of little value in deter- 
 mining total crop production. 
 
 Prices. — Average monthly farm prices, which are easily 
 ascertained and which are of record in the Bureau of 
 Crop Estimates for a long series of years, afford one of the 
 best indirect checks on crop production. The law of 
 supply and demand, like the law of gravity, operates 
 universally. Fluctuations in prices are usually propor- 
 tional to variations in supply, except in cases where the 
 normal operation of the law of supply and demand is 
 interfered with by special causes, which can usually be 
 ascertained. A study of average farm prices in the differ- 
 ent States in relation to the estimated crop production 
 will nearly always confirm the approximate accuracy of 
 the estimates. 
 
 HOW REPORTS ON PARTICULAR CROPS 
 ARE CHECKED UP. 
 
 Cotton is the only crop for which a complete and 
 absolute check is afforded annually, namely, by the 
 census report on girmings. Comparison with these for 
 the past two years shows that the cotton estimates of the 
 Bureau of Crop Estimates were accurate to within less 
 than 1 per cent. In the case of rice and sugar beets, 
 which can be checked by a canvass of all the rice and 
 beet-sugar mills, the estimates were accurate to within 
 less than 1 per cent. Tobacco estimates are checked 
 annually against the records of the Bureau of Internal 
 Revenue and are accurate to within a few per cent. 
 
Government Crop Reports. 13 
 
 In the case of no other crops do satisfactory checks 
 exist. Statistics which appear in the press, in State 
 reports, reports of commercial bodies, and other publica- 
 tions, on crops other than those mentioned, so far as they 
 are not based on the census, or on the reports of the 
 Bureau of Crop ELstimates, are frequently more or less 
 incomplete, and often inaccurate or otherwise defective. 
 In fact, the estimates of the bureau are the foundation 
 for many of the crop reports and statistics of commercial 
 bodies and private estimating agencies. The Govern- 
 ment reports generally are accepted as accurate by those 
 who are well informed or who have occasion to collect 
 or study crop statistics. 
 
 Ejcisting means of checking reports on particular crops 
 are set forth under separate headings. 
 
 CORN. 
 
 No satisfactory annual check for the com crop is 
 available. The only complete check is the estimated 
 acreage and production reported every 10 years by the 
 Census Bureau. Only a few States estimate the com 
 production, and even these reports are not based on as 
 complete returns or on as thorough study and scientific 
 methods as the estimates of the bureau. Incomplete 
 reports of the movement of the 20 per cent of this crop 
 which leaves the county where grown, and statistics of 
 the very small percentage of the crop which is manu- 
 factured or exported, serve only as indexes of surpluses 
 available for commercial purposes. The average farm 
 price of com is probably the best check available, but 
 this is necessarily imperfect. 
 
 WHEAT. 
 
 No complete annual check for the wneat crop is avail- 
 able, although, as the bulk of the crop enters commercial 
 chaimels, a partial means of confirmation of the accuracy 
 of the bureau's estimates is afforded by such statistics as 
 are available with respect to crop movement, receipts 
 at primary markets, cind exports. The only complete 
 check is the estimated acreage and production every 10 
 years by the Census Bureau. Stale reports cover only 
 a portion of the wheat-producing region and are often 
 unsatisfactory. Estimates of private agencies are im- 
 perfect and not authentic. 
 
1 4 Government Crop Reports. 
 
 OATS, RYE. BARLEY, BUCKWHEAT. AND HAY. 
 
 Oats, rye, barley, buckwheat, and hay are in the same 
 position as com with respect to means by which the 
 crop estimates may be checked. 
 
 RICE. 
 
 The acreage and production of rice can be verified every 
 1 years by the census. As all rice which is not retained 
 on farms for seed passes through rice mills and as the mills 
 are comparatively few in number, it is possible to check 
 rice receipts at mills and to estimate the amount required 
 for seed against the estimated production. The bureau's 
 estimate of the rice crop in December, 1915, was 
 28,947,000 bushels. Because this estimate was severely 
 criticized as being from 6 to 10 per cent too large, a 
 thorough canvass of all the rice mills was made in 1916, 
 requests being sent to them to report their receipts of 
 rough rice from the crop of 1915. Retums were received 
 from every rice mill of importance in the United States. 
 The amount of the 1915 rice crop reported by mills as 
 having been received by them, plus a conservative esti- 
 mate of the amount of rough rice for seeding the 1916 
 crop, was 28,995,000 bushels, indicating that the 
 bureau's estimate was accurate to within less than 1 
 per cent. The items are shown in the following state- 
 ment: 
 
 The 191 5 rice estimate compared with receipts of rice mills. 
 
 Total mill receipts of rough rice in bushels of 45 pounds Bushels. 
 
 each 27,396,991 
 
 Seeding requirements for year 1916, approx- Bushels. 
 
 imately 1 .765,800 
 
 Mills reporting (estimate for one) show sales 
 
 for seed of 223,578 
 
 Leaving to be furnished by local elevators or 
 
 retai; :^ by farmers, for seed 1 ,542,222 
 
 Local consumption, east of Mississippi River " 56,000 
 
 Thus accounting definitely for a total of 28.995,21 3 
 
 Total productio.. as estimated by Bureau of Crop Esti- 
 mates in December. 1915, was 28,947,000 
 
 Showing an excess over the bureau's estimates of 48,2 1 3 
 
 Or about two-tenths of 1 per cent. 
 
 "East of the Mississippi River, production was estimated at about 160.000 
 bushels; o( this, 104,000 bushels were received by mills or used for seed, and 
 56,000 bushels were consumed locally. 
 
Government Crop Report.s. 
 
 15 
 
 COTTON. 
 
 Cotton is the only crop lor which a complete and 
 satisfactory annual check is furnished, namely, by the 
 census report of cotton ginning. For two years in 
 succession, in 1914 for the largest crop ever produced, 
 and in 1 9 1 5 tor the smallest crop produced in many years, 
 the estimates of the Bureau of Crop Estimates in Decem- 
 ber came within less than 1 per cent of the total final 
 ginnings reported by the census in the following March. 
 
 This is brought out in the following table, which gives 
 the number of pounds of lint cotton (net weight) as esti- 
 mated in December, annually, by the Department of 
 Agriculture, and the number subsequently reported by 
 the Bureau of the Census, for each of the seasons 1900-1 
 to 1916-17, inclusive, together with the percentage 
 overestimated or underestimated by the Department ot 
 Agriculture each season. 
 
 3ureau of Crop Estimates' figures on the cotton crop compared vcith 
 the ginning figures of the Bureau of the Census. 
 
 Pounds of cotton (000 
 omitted). 
 
 Crop year. 
 
 — Over- Under- 
 
 •EUtimaledby ^^i^t 
 Department of P^lL^^ 
 i Agriculture. 3^-' 
 
 mated. 
 
 esti- 
 mated. 
 
 1900-1 
 
 
 4.856.738 
 4.529.Q54 
 5.1 11.870 
 4.889.796 
 6.157.064 
 4.860.217 
 6.001.726 
 5.581.968 
 6.182.970 
 4.826344 
 5.464.597 
 7.121.713 
 6.612335 
 6.542.850 
 7,637.113 
 5338.588 
 5.506.896 
 
 4.846.471 
 4.550.950 
 5.091.641 
 4.716.591 
 6.426.698 
 5.060.200 
 6354.110 
 5312.950 
 6336.070 
 4.783.220 
 5.551.790 
 7.506.430 
 6.556.500 
 6.772350 
 7.718.980 
 5.354.406 
 5.480.012 
 
 cent. 
 0.2 
 
 .4' 
 
 3.7 
 
 ""'5'.i' 
 
 .9 
 
 ■9' 
 
 
 
 
 
 '•4' 
 
 Per 
 cent. 
 
 1901-2 
 
 1902-3 
 
 0.5 
 
 1903-4 
 
 
 1904-5 
 
 4.2 
 
 1905-6 
 
 4.0 
 
 1906-7 
 
 5.5 
 
 1907-8 
 
 1908-9 
 
 1909-10 
 
 1910-11 
 
 2.4 
 
 1 .6 
 
 1911-12. . 
 
 5.1 
 
 1912-13 
 
 
 1913-14 .... 
 
 3.4 
 
 1914-15 
 
 1.1 
 
 1915-16 
 
 .3 
 
 1916-17 
 
 
 
 )-1916 
 
 
 17years. I90( 
 
 97,222,739 
 31,637,782 
 18.482.597 
 
 98.419369 
 31.882.248 
 18.553398 
 
 
 
 1.2 
 
 5year». 1912- 
 
 -1916 
 
 .8 
 
 3 yean. 1914-1916 
 
 .6 
 
 
 
 
 POTATOES. 
 
 No complete and satisfactory check exists, except the 
 census every 10 years. A few of the principal potato- 
 growing States publish reports on this crop based upon 
 data which are less complete than those possessed by the 
 Bureau of Crop ELstimates. In a few important pro- 
 
16 Government Crop Reports. 
 
 ducing sections, such as Aroostook County, in Maine, 
 and the trucking regions of the Eastern Shore of Maryleind 
 and Virginia, the commercial movement of potatoes is 
 sufficiently large to form a fairly good check on the pro- 
 duction in those sections. The private estimates of some 
 of the producers' associations are also of value in con- 
 firming the accuracy of the bureau's estimates. However, 
 no complete annual check on potato production is avail- 
 able, the most satisfactory one being the aimual variation 
 in prices, w^hich indicate larger or smaller production in 
 each State, and to that extent verify the estimates of the 
 
 bureau. 
 
 TOBACCO. 
 
 Aside from the decennial census, the best annual 
 check is afforded by the records of the Bureau of Intemal 
 Revenue. Private estimates of the "trade" and average 
 farm prices, taken in connection with the records of the 
 Intemal Revenue Bureau, are also considered in verifica- 
 tion of the estimates. These estimates are exceedingly 
 accurate, usually within a few per cent of the figures of 
 the Bureau of Intemal Revenue. 
 
 SUGAR BEETS. 
 
 In addition to the check afforded every 10 years by 
 the census, the bureau is able to check its estimates 
 annually with data obtained from all the beet-sugar 
 factories, which are few in number and handle the entire 
 crop, so that the inquiry practically amounts to a census. 
 The estimates are regarded as highly accurate. 
 
 APPLES AND PEACHES. 
 
 The census affords a check every 1 years on produc- 
 tion and reports the number of trees of bearing and non- 
 bearing age. The reports of transportation and storage 
 companies and warehouses, and various growers and 
 shipping associations, offer fairly reliable data as to the 
 commercial crop. There is no reliable check on the 
 large percentage of these crops which is consumed in 
 counties where grown. Tlie present organization of 
 the Bureau of Crop Estimates includes three fmit-crop 
 specialists who devote their entire time to estimating 
 apples and peaches. At present, fluctuations in the 
 average price afford the best verification of the bureai/s 
 estimates. 
 
Government Crop Rep>orts. I 7 
 
 TRUCK CROPS. 
 
 There Is no annual check on the accuracy of the bureau's 
 estimate of production of truck crops. The best annual 
 checks on the size of the various truck crops are prices 
 and data supplied by the transportation, storage, and 
 canning companies. The data collected by the Bureau 
 of Markets will become of increasing value as its work 
 is developed and its methods are perfected. 
 
 LIVE STOCK. 
 
 The only checks upon the accuracy of the bureau's 
 annual estimates of numbers of different cksses of live 
 stock are the decennial census, tax assessors' returns in 
 some States, commercial movement, and receipts of meat 
 animals at stockyards, and average prices. 
 
SCOPE OF INFORMATION CONTAINED 
 
 [Key: (A) Acreage; {%&) acreage in per cent of last year; (b) number of breeding 
 exposure; (F) final estimates (acreage, production, value); ({) per cent of crops 
 (1) cut for silos; (m) per cent of crop of merchantable quality; (n) number; (P) pro 
 after abandonment; (s) supplies on farms; (v) values — prices of products marked 
 per acre — or colony.) 
 
 1 
 
 Crop. ! Jan. 1 Mar. Apr. 
 
 May. 
 
 June. 
 
 CereaU: 
 Barley v+ sf 
 
 
 
 Ac 
 
 Buckwheat v-|- 
 
 Com v-f 
 
 
 
 
 sfm 
 
 
 
 
 Oals v+ sf 
 
 Rice 
 
 
 
 Ac 
 
 
 
 
 Rye ... V-!- 
 
 
 " 
 
 re 
 
 c 
 
 Wheat(all) 
 
 
 sf 
 
 Wheat (spring) 
 
 
 
 Ac 
 
 e 
 
 %ac 
 
 Wheat (winter) 
 
 c re 
 
 Forage (grasses): 
 
 Alfal.'a. hay v-f 
 
 Alfalfa seed v+ 
 
 1 
 
 
 
 
 
 %ac 
 
 Clover seed 
 
 v + 
 
 I 
 
 
 
 
 ' 
 
 c 
 s 
 
 c 
 c 
 
 Hav (all) 
 
 v + 
 
 1 
 
 Hay (tame) 
 
 1 
 
 Hay(wUd) I v + 
 
 Kafirs.elc ! v + 
 
 Meadows i ... 
 
 i ■■ 
 
 
 
 .J 
 
 
 
 
 c 
 
 
 Millet 
 
 
 
 Pastures 
 
 ^ 
 
 c 1 c 
 
 c 
 
 
 :: 
 
 Fruits: 
 Apples 
 
 ■ 
 
 1 
 
 e 
 
 c 
 c 
 
 
 ! 
 
 c 
 
 
 
 
 
 Cranberries 
 
 
 
 
 Grapefruit, Florida } v-j- 
 
 Grapes ' 
 
 C 
 
 c 
 
 c 
 
 c 
 
 Lemons. California v+ 
 
 Limes. Florida v+ 
 
 Olives. California - 
 
 C 
 
 c 
 
 c 
 c 
 
 c 
 c 
 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 
 cv 
 c 
 
 Oranges 
 
 Peaches 
 
 Pears ... 
 
 •••v + 
 
 c 
 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 
 c 
 c 
 
 c 
 c 
 
 Pineapples, Florida 
 
 
 c 
 
 
 
 c 
 
 Vegetables: 
 Beans (dry) 
 
 v + 
 
 
 
 Beans (lima). California . 
 
 
 
 c 
 c 
 
 v-U 
 
 c 
 
 c 
 c 
 
 c 
 
 %p 
 
 
 
 VcP 
 
 
 
 Field beans 
 
 
 c 
 c 
 
 
 
 
 Potatoes gv+ 
 
 Sweet potatoes v + 
 
 c 
 
 c 
 
 e 
 
 
 
 c 
 
 e 
 
 c 
 
 
 Miscellaneous: 
 
 
 
 ..'.... 
 
 Broom com 
 
 v+ 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 c 
 
 Flaxseed 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 c 
 
 Honey 
 
 v + 
 v+ 
 v+ 
 
 
 
 ■ 
 
 Hods 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 1 
 
 
 Plowing 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 1 
 
 c 
 %ac 
 
 
 
 
 
 Tobacco ' 
 
 
 
 
 Walnuts (EnplishV Cal i 
 
 
 
 
 
 c 
 
 Wool v+ 
 
 Live stock: 
 
 Horses 1 nv + 
 
 
 
 
 
 }. 
 
 
 
 Mules nv 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 nv + 
 
 
 
 
 
 All cattle 
 
 
 de^ 
 dec 
 de 
 deb 
 
 
 
 
 Sheep 
 
 nv + 
 v + 
 nv+ 
 
 
 
 
 Lamb« 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 nc 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Note.— Reports of prices are also obtained monllily for butter, eggs, chickens, milk, 
 ary. February. October. November, and December: for black walnuts, hickory nuU. 
 com in January,February,November, and December; for maple sugar and sirup in March, 
 
 IS 
 
IN 1 HE SEVERAL CROP REPORIS. 
 
 »owi compared with last year: (c) condition: (d) Iom« from difcajc; (e) Io«»m from 
 thipped oul of county where grown; (h) ni-mbcr »lock hoq« compared with year ago, 
 duction; (%p) per cent of full crop produced; (q) quality; (r) acreacie remaining 
 (v + ) in January are a»ked each month; (w) weight per buihel. or fleecr; (Y) yield 
 
 July. 
 
 Aug. 
 
 S.,L 
 
 Oct. 1 Nov. 
 
 Dec. 
 
 Crop. 
 
 c 
 
 Ac " 
 
 c 
 Ac 
 
 ic 
 
 Ac 
 
 c 
 
 *c 
 
 c 
 
 APq 
 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 
 : 
 
 Pq 
 
 c 
 
 c 
 Pq 
 
 c 
 
 w 
 
 Pq 
 
 .Pql 
 
 w 
 
 F 
 
 F 
 
 F 
 
 F 
 qF 
 a1:F 
 
 F 
 
 F 
 AcF 
 
 Cereal.: 
 Bailcv. 
 Buckwhea 
 Com. 
 Oats. 
 Rice. 
 Rye. 
 
 
 
 
 Wheat (all). 
 
 c 
 
 c 
 
 Pr. 
 
 Pq 
 
 w 
 w 
 
 Wheat (spring). 
 Wheat (winter). 
 
 
 Y%p 
 
 
 
 Forage (grasses): 
 Alialia. hav. 
 
 y^cp 
 
 
 Alfalfa, seed. 
 
 c ; Y . .pq 
 
 
 
 
 Clover, hav. 
 
 c 
 
 p 
 £*> 
 
 Pq 
 
 c 
 
 c 
 c 
 
 ^;? 
 
 
 
 c c 
 c Ac 
 
 A 
 
 A 
 
 c c 
 
 Field peas. 
 Hay (all). 
 
 
 
 F 
 F 
 F 
 
 
 
 
 Hay (wild). 
 
 c 
 
 Y%P 
 
 Kafirletc. 
 
 c c c 
 %»c c Y«r^ 
 
 rcP 
 
 c 
 
 
 
 MQiet. 
 
 
 Pastures. 
 
 , 
 
 Timothv. ha>. 
 
 c ; c 
 c %P 
 
 c c 
 
 c 
 
 c 
 
 %pq Ff 
 
 Fruits: 
 Apples. 
 
 Apricots. California. 
 Black and rasp berries. 
 
 
 
 
 %p 
 
 c 
 c 
 
 cv 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 
 %pqv 
 
 cv 
 v 
 
 c 
 
 %p 
 
 c 
 c 
 
 r 
 
 
 
 
 Cant'^loupes. 
 
 c 
 
 cv 
 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 
 cv 
 
 V 
 
 Y7cpq 
 
 c 
 c 
 
 c 
 c . 
 
 %pqv' 
 
 ▼ 
 
 F 
 Yr^pq 
 
 YS^pq 
 Fv 
 
 
 c 1 c 
 c cv 
 c c 
 c c 
 c c 
 c c 
 cv cv 
 c cv 
 cv %pv 
 c c 
 c c 
 
 c c 
 c c 
 c c 
 
 Grapefruit. Florida. 
 
 Grapes. 
 
 Lemons. California. 
 
 Limes, Florida. 
 
 Olives. California. 
 
 Oranges. 
 
 Peaches. 
 
 Pears, 
 
 Pineapples. Florida. 
 
 Prunes California. 
 
 
 
 
 1 
 
 F 
 
 Vegetables: 
 Beans (drv). 
 
 V^P 
 
 
 
 
 
 Cabbages, 
 
 
 
 
 Cauliflower California. 
 
 ' i. . 
 
 
 
 Celery California. 
 
 t I 
 
 Ac c 
 Ac c 
 
 cv cv 
 
 c c 
 c c 
 Ac c 
 Ac c 
 c c 
 Y 
 
 C 
 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 cv 
 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 
 c 
 c 
 
 ' .' PV 
 
 VV.,P 
 
 c 
 Y%p 
 
 
 
 Field beans. 
 
 
 
 Onions. 
 
 Pq 
 
 F 
 
 F 
 
 Potatoes. 
 Sweet potatoes. 
 
 ^cP 
 ■pq • 
 
 ■*F " 
 rP 
 F 
 
 Miscellaneous: 
 
 Almonds, California. 
 
 Broom corn. 
 
 Cotton. 
 
 Fla.x8eed. 
 
 Hemp. 
 
 Honey. 
 
 Hops. 
 
 Pea.nuts. 
 
 Planlinsj. 
 
 Plow ing. 
 
 c c 
 c c 
 
 c ' ^c- ivVip,-....^. 
 
 
 
 
 %ac c 
 
 c c Y 
 
 
 c 
 c 
 Ac 
 c 
 w 
 
 c 
 c 
 
 c 
 c 
 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 
 c 
 c 
 c 
 cv 
 
 c 
 c 
 
 ^,pv 
 
 "¥' 
 
 V 
 
 Sugar beets. 
 
 Sugar cane. 
 
 Tobacco. 
 
 Wahua (English). Cal. 
 
 Wool. 
 
 
 
 
 LWs stock: 
 /Horses. 
 \Mui«. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Other cattle. 
 
 
 
 
 
 ' 
 
 All cattle. 
 
 
 
 
 
 1 
 
 Sheep. 
 
 
 
 
 
 1 
 
 
 
 
 ■ he ■ * 
 
 
 
 
 
 S\vine 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Honey bees, colonies. 
 
 
 1 
 
 1 
 
 vealcalves. timothy seed, cotton seed, cottonseed meal, and bran; for soy beans in Janj- 
 pecans. and turkeys in January. October, November, and December; for turnips and pop- 
 April. May, and June; aaid ior chestnuts in October. November, and December. 
 O 19 
 
UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 
 
 ■I 
 
 3 1262 09216 9175