__ /_____^ITNIT?.D STATES DE^ART!^NT OF AGRICULT"JRE • '■'^^-^^ I BUREAU OF ArTHlCULTI.THAL ECONOMICS <^^ C| WASHIKCTCN, D. C. March 10, 1939 LANDED _PRgMCII_ON_OF_IURKEYS_LN_l^ S. iD&fl^'^]]^i^(iacer)5 are planning Inrge increases in the number of turkeys to ■be 1 at sed" till s year, according to early February returns to the Bureau of Agricul- tural Economics. Reports from more than 4,000 producers who bought or hatched 2,750,000 poults in 1938 show that big increases are intended in all major regions of the country. If the indicated increases should be realized, turkey producers in the United States would hatch or buy .about 27 percent more turkey poults in 1939 than in 1938. The actual percent of increase in turkeys raised, however, will probably be less than that figure. Last year uroducers re-oorted an expected in- crease of iDoults of about 6 percent, whereas the increase in turkeys raised seems to have been only about 2 percent. A record gain of 35 percent v;as made in 1936. ■ The reported number of turkey rioults that -oroducers intend to obtain from commercial lia.tcheries shows a 34 percent increase over ourcl'iases last yea.r. In- tended purchases of poults show large increases in all areas, being up 27 percent in the North Atlantic and Far- Western regions and 33 to 38 percent in the other major regions. An increase of 22 percent in home hatched poults is expected. The returns for these show wider variations between regions than do those for purcliased poults, but they also show gains for all major regions. These reported increases range from 12 percent in the South' A.tl antic to 33 percent in the North Atlantic region, increases in all other regions being between 18 and 25 oercent. As this is only the second annual intentions report for turkeys, it is im- possible to judge to what extent Derformance may fall below these reported inten- tions. Large flocks which for several years have been rapidly increasing in number ajad expanding in size are more fully represented in the returns tlian are the small farm flocks and this orobably tends to make the reriorted increase some- what too high. During most recent years the number of small flocks has tended to decline, offsetting to some extent the gain in large flocks. This yea^r there appears to be but little decline in the number of small flocks and gains in in- tended numbers are shown for these as well as for large flocks. The extent of the increase in the number of turkeys raised this year will depend upon several fa.ctors, iiarticularly the weather, the sup-oly of suitable eggs for hatching, the ability' of hatcheries to meet the expanding dema.nd for poults, and finally, upon further consideration by producers of the possibility that the supply of turkeys this year might be in excess of the ma.rket demand at satisfac- tory prices. V/hile these and other factors are exoected to result in smaller in- creases than shown by the intention re-oorts, a considera.ble increase in production seems assured. Prices received for the 1938 crop of turkeys were high in relation to feed costs. Returns from the 1937 crop also were fairly good in most sections though not in all. Following two generally satisfactory years, producers seem inclined to expaJid production sha.rply a.nd ma.ny who oroduced no turkeys in 1938 are planning to raise some this year. The number of turkey hens reported on hand February 1, shows an increase of 15 percent over numbers la.st year. A gain is indicated for every major geographic area, with increa.ses of 10 percent in the Far West, 14 percent in the ijorth Atlantic region, and about 2C percent elsev;here. - 2 - UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 3 1262 08921 8936 The mortality of yciinj^ turkeys in 1938 is re-oortcd at atjioroximately 21 Der- cent of the total number of poults bou.^ht, custom hr^tched and home hatched in that year. The loss of turkey hens for the country as a whole wss aooarently close to 9 percent nf the number on hpjid last year. The smallest loss of young turkeys was 14 percent in the ITorth Atl.-ntic region and hi^^hest was 36 percent in the South Central group of States. The reported mortality of breeding stock ranged from a low average of about 5 oercent in the Far West up to 18 percent in the South Central region. INTENDED TURKEY PRODITCTION IN 1939 Growers' Intentions as Reported on February 1, 1939 numbers in 1939 as a oercentc^ rEstimo.ted ' of numbers in 1938 1/ rpercent of" Hatchery < Home Hatchery Geographic :U.S. total Number rarkey hens > poults to* hatched • pjid home areas rproduction- of flocks on hand be bought ■Doul t s fo r ha.tched :of turkeys- reiDortcd Feb. 1 • for rais- raising noults : in 1938 i^ig_2/ _ combined percent Number percent percent Percent • percent North Atlr^itic 6.4 447 114 127 133 130 East No. Central 10.5 529 122 135 - 121 127 West iJc. Central 30.3 1,178 119 135 125 131 South Atlcjitic 8.2 446 119 134 112 121 South Ccntrcl 22.1 779 120 138 12c : 124 Western 22.5 587 '"' "4; 066 " 110 ""' 115 127 . ' 134"! 118 125 United States 100.0 122 127 1/ Exclusive of poults being hatched grov/crs. 2/ Including poults "custom hatched" by growers for sele r?s baby poults to other for a fee from e^gs supplied by the grower. Mortality of Turkeys in 1938 Young turkeys lost as Breeding stock lost Geographic a percentage cf total ■ as a percentage of areas numbers bought and February 1 num- home hatched in 19 58 bers cf hens Percent percent North Atlantic 14 12 East No. Central 21 12 West No. Central 20 11 South Atlantic 30 1 15 South Central 36 18 Western 20 : 5 United States : 21 : 9 Reports received from 67 hatcheries in connection vyith this inquiry showed an increase of 33 percent in the number of turkey hens on ha-nd in their o\7n flocks on February 1 this year over last, and an increase of 68 percent in their ex- pected sales cf turkey poults in 1939 compared with 1938. Inb