UNITED STATES DEF/ *T*'ENT OF AGRICULTURE Bureau 'of Agricultural Economics SYNTHETIC FIBERS IN RELATION TO AMERICAN COTTON By Faurice R. hooper end Horace G. Porter Agricultural Economic Statisticians f F44.IE. DOCUMENT? SEPT. Wa shine-ton 25, D. C. January 1945 :j -EPOSITORY r SYNTHETIC FIFERS T' " ICA3 n Contents Summary and Conclusions 1 Syrthntic Fiber Product} on Frior to 7.' or Id ir ° r II 3 Usea of Rayon in Comparison with Other Fibers 5 Factors Influencing the Ronid Expansion in Rr-yon 5 Technological Developments 5 Prices Government Policies Additionpl Factors 10 Developments Durinp V r o*-ld ^ Pr U • ^® Rayon Production ^nd Consumption 10 Other Synthetic Fiber Production . 1?. Probable Post-V'er Trends in Synthetic ^ibers 13 Feans of Improving American Cotton's Competitive Fosition 16 Tnbles , 19 Chr rts 24 I NOTE An earlier draft of this report v^s p^ep^ed in November 1944 for the Office of the Secretary to meet a request from >"r. Jonathan Daniels, Administrative Assistant to the Fresi^Tt. It hrs sirce been revised ^rd an edition of 40 conies vps issued as Cotton Document No. 7 t-y the Interdepartmental Technical Committee on Cotton. It is here made more generally available* gWTWP.Tlc FP-^S IV- RELATION T'O AFERICkF ; COTTQy ' " By •:? • • _ ' rise R. Cooper erd Horace 0. Foster AgrrT.cnlt-.nral Eoorom-ie Stetis'biej ens , Pu^esu of Airn'ciltural Economics '. Summary and Conclusions 1 - Pn-:cr\ production in .1942 in t^e Fnited States v ; as 6 7 percent larger than fc ir 1939 ard world production was 56 percent larger. World ^ayon production in 1942 (the latest year for which estimates are av^ila^le) totaled almost 3.6 billion pounds, of which almost o^o- fifth ras produced in the United States". The world nroduction was eo - -iv*lent (ossuninr 425 rounds of raven ecu el to 4 7 8 pounds of cottcn) to P-l/4 rdllion hales of cot + o-n, a considerable proportion of wM.ch re- presented a :ii spla cement of cotton,- with smaller proportions representing a di s- placement of wool and other natural fibers' and with, so-^e representing an increase in the total consumption of fibers which pro v ahlv would not hax-e occurred except Co>~ the development of ra-"on. A substantial p^rt of the increase in rgvon produc- tion outside the T r<:'ted States since 1939 end in ^e vears immediately preceding resulted from increased output in '"-erTnany and Jaoe'r where production in 194 2 was estimated at rough.lv half o^ the world total. 2 - Few tvoes c ^avon r nd other synthetic ^ibe^s, particularly well adapted to specific uses, have been developed and in so mo instances ^8ve become very inroqrt&rt within the last, decide. About three-fifths of the total 1942 world _ rayon production was composed of staple fiber -- most o-" w w ich is used on cotton or wool crinrirg and weeding machinery -- even though as recently as 1931 this type of rayon represented les^ ;th*n 2 percert.o^ the total. T t-is expected that in the TT nited States tbe production Of hi rh tene.ci ty continuous filament yann in .1944 will represent roughly l p percent; and staple -fiber about 23 percent of the total domestic r on production cornered with onlv 1 to 2, and 14 percent,' respective lv, in 1939. Relatively st*8 11 quantities of nylon, casein fiber, and other synthetic fibers also are now. being produced -on a commercial basis with substantial increases expected in the immediate post-war period • 3 - An annual average percentage increase in total ravon production following 1942 only half as great .as in the previous 1C ■'/ears would result in a world ra-^on production in 1P52- equivalent (on- the bgsis indicated above) to 22 million bales of cotton, a^ out 19 million bales of which would Va produced in foreign countries.' Such a world production would be about three- fourths r s large as the 1935-39 average annuel world .mill consumption of raw cotton* This'; or even a' considerably smaller production, seems likely to materially, restrict both the domestic and foreign con- sumption ofxCOtton as -compared with the l930*s, at lepst during the early post-war rg . The, alternative j of course, would be to obtain pr increase in the tot^l world consumption of fibers sufficient to absorb -"t least a lnrge part of the Increased synthetic fiber production: ps well °~s 26 to 27 million bales of cotton. From 1921-25 to 1934-3R the oomMned wo ■'•lc ■ concufnptifcr o-f cotton and rayon increased by the .equjv lent of roughly 9 million bales of 'Cotton (3 million of which was rayon), a rete too srn^ll to absorb the possible future increased production of these fibers. - 2 - 4 - The downward trend in the prices of re yon undoubtedly has contributed ,-nruch to the rapid increases in >-ayon consumption . Domestic Prices of 150 denier rayon filament yarn declined from the ell-time Peak of |P.OO a pound in early 1920 to an average of $2.79 for the cotton crop year 1P21 to 49 - 55 cents since early 1P5P . In the last two or three years rayon filament vacs v as beer considerably cheaper in price than many of the finer and better quality ootton yarns with v.h.ich it competes. Frices of rayon staple fiber (viscose type) declined at successive *' intervals from 60 cents a pound, net weipht, in 1920 to 1931 to 24 or 25 certs e p»und since late 1937. fonsiderirr the differences in spinninp waste, the cost of "iddlinp lF>/l£-inch cotton, net weight , to the spinner in the last auarter of 1944 wps about the same as staple fiber, whereas durinp the first 4 -"ears after the introduction of staple fiber (l9? p -3l) cotton everaped about one-fourth o p the cost of staple fiber. The present cost of cot+on of lonper lenp-ths, wh^ch are required for the finer pnd smoother,, yarns , is much hipher than starle fiber. Fur- ther reduction in the domestic price of '-aycr and other synthetic fibers is ex- pected in the post-war period, but in the case of rayon, at least, the declines will be much less than occurred durinp the 1930' s. 5 - Rayon and other synthetic fibers will, no doubt, displace substantial additional quantities of cotton durinp the next dec8de or two. It is orobable, however, that increasinp world population and imnrovinp economic conditions may be accompanied by a new hiph in the total apparel fiber consumption. The lower the price of cotton the preater would be the extent to which it m.irht reasorablv expect to share in any such increase. 6 - Special economic and political incentives of several important cotton and wool importinp countries to shift from these natural fibers to ravon contribute* to the rapid increase in rayon production immediately before the war and may be imnortant in the post-war period. These countries, which are dependent uoon imports for most of their raw cotton requirements, were able to make important savinps in their monetary balances or foreipn exchanpe v eld in other countries by usinp rayon instead of cotton. Wood pulp, the princ'^pi source o^ cellulose, is available t« many of these countries at costs ecdvalent to not more than. 4 or 5 cents per pound of fiber ard o^ten with no expenditures of foreign exchanpe. This situation and Governmental- act-'on to conserve exchanpe for use in obteininp other materials and to become more self-sufficient were especially important in the expansion in Germany, Italv, and Japan. Furinr the ^'ar rayon production in the Axis areas has been further stimulated bv the extrer-.ely limited supplies of cotton, weol, and iute, a large oprt of which is norm^llv imported from the allied countries • 7 - Through the numerous research pnd action proe-^a^s of t^e Federal -ond State Governments f rd the various r r ii7pte age^ci^s, firms, rnd individuals o^ -t-he Cotton Belt, much has been done in recent years wMch has made the production of American cotton more pro^itabl^ than it would oth ^ise have been. The develop- ments eontributinp to this irclude soil cops-rvptior rnd soil bui ldinr nctiviti v *ter. fprm management practices; improved v« ?; better ginrinr, prek r pinp, pnd mr>rketinp facilities and m^t v ods; more effective methods of control! inp insects p.nd diseases; pnd the development «nd Promotion of new pnd expanded uses for cot^:»n. - 1 — _ ^ ■_ vertbeless, it is apparent that ever m^r ; aggressive efforts along- these »nd other lines are desirable in order to b^lo strengthen American co + ton's competitive position in relation to othar anp-rel fibers, foreign cottons, and paper. These ~rd oth^r considerations have resulted in the realization that a reconsideration of the sntirs cotton ^rogrnn ^ s needed. S-"rth-"-'tic Fi be r Production Fri or to V/orl^ Vie r II There were c number of synthetic fibers produced in the United States and ofv, r countries, either on c commercial or an experimental basis, orior to the •inr-ir? of World War II, but rayon wa s and still is by far th<° most important. Fr^ or to If 55, rryor probably accounted for over 9P or 99 percert 9*" total world synthetic fi^er production. Conseouent ly, this discussion of prewer developments •'"ill be restricted to rayon. The commercial nroduction of rayon as a textile fiber beg-an in France in 1PR4, was auicklv taken up in Germany and England, and a little later in other European countries. Desrvte m^ny "•"ecbni^al difficulties during - the early years, by 1900 the commercial future of rayon was definitely assured. However, the world product j on of all tvp°s of r^yon was very small Prior to World War I and showed little increase during 1 the war period. After 1920, total world -'nroduction increased at a rarid rate. Even during 1 the world-wide depression, the production, of -rayon increased rapidly and was nearly 60 percent greater in 1P33 than in 1929. Following 1933 the advance was still more raoid and in 1937 world Production was about 160 percent greater then in 1933. Additional marked increases occurred in 193P and 1939, so that at the outbreak of the war in Europe, world production totaled 2.2 billion pounds, equivalent to r hout 5 million bales of cotton (assuming 425 pounds of rayon equivalent to one 47P-oound bale of cotton) and by 1942 it is estimated to have been equivalent to roughly P-l/4 million bales of cotton. This compares with a total production in 1920 equivalent to 7P thousand bales ard represents an increase from e negligible proportion to the equivalent of about one-third of the world's consumption of cotton. These and oth°r compari- sons in terms of raw cotton "equivalents" are in no sense intended to imply a YOT ^ : While this memorandum deals mainly with synthetic fiber, paper and foreign cotton also are highly important cmeeti tors, o^ American cotton. In 1939 the use cf paper in the form o^ t^ss'^s, towels, multiwall b*>f*s', and tapes (whrch compete directly with cotton) was equivalent on a pound-p^i — pound basis to roughly 2 million bales of raw cotton. Considering the differences in the serviceability »f these products when m-de from- cotton ard from paper, the volu.m° of paper going intf se items is equal on an equivalent use-basis to a very much smaller number of bales of raw cotton. TV>e quantity of paper so used, however, represented a pro- nounced increase ovir recent preceding v>r.r-s* In mid-1944 the carry-over of fOreier cotton v-s ppproxim p t«ly V million bales l^rgrer th r n in 1P39. This and the orobft>le resumption of the un^r^ tr^nd in foreign production (w u ich in the early 1920's was under 10 million bales but in 1936 and 193? was over IP million bales) will contribute to increased competition from this source 'during the years immediately ahead. Increased competition also will result from expanded mill con- sumption of locallv-p-rown cotton, accompanied by reduced cotton textile imports, in countries formerly im^ortirr hundreds of milliors of vards of cotton gtods produced in countries importing - Ameriom and o+h^r cottons. . 4 * • displacement by rayon of the "equivalent " amount of cotton. A considerable oro^or- tion of the rayon produced represents e displacement of cotton but some of it re- presents a displacement of wool, silk, end other natural fibers and some an ircrease ir total fiber consumption. Production of reyon increased renidly in a nurber of court ries, r>ut from 1920 t") 1935 production in +be United States increased by a greater absolute amount ther ir. any other country. In Jar-en, however, where Production was nepligi^le until 1925, production in 1935 was only slightly less than in the United States, and in 1936 Japan displaced the United States as the world's larp-est producer of rayon. During the present var Germany proper poparertly has become the largest producer. From 1920 to 1935 rayon production in the United Kingdom, Germany, end Italy shoved roughlv the same peneral t'-erd, with Production in each ef these countries increasing' from less than 10 million rounds in 1920 to between 120 and 160 million pounds in 1935. In the late 1930' s production in Italy and Germany, under the stimulus of nationalistic policies designed to reduce these countries' dependercv unon imports and to conserve foreirr exchenpe, increased to such an extent that by 1939 production in these countries greatly exceeded that in Great . Britain. Initial interest in ravon stsnle fi^er, as cent rested with continuous file- ment yarn, arose in Germany during Wo "Id War I d"e to the shortage of cotton and wool with which it was mixed as a substitute. After the cessation of hostilities, when increased suor-lies of natural fibers were e°"ein available, interest in staple fiber lapsed. A decade or more Pro interest was revived first in Germany and Italv, partlv as a result of the nationalistic r overnmental oolicies of these countries, and later in other countries as the potentialities of stable fiber became more evident. World production of "a von staole fiber was quite small ^rior to 1931, it representing less than 2 percent of the total woi-ld Production of rayon at that time. By 1939 the world production of rayon staple fiber was equivalent to about one-half of the total production of rayon and totaled approximated 1.1 billion pounds end by 1^42 the estimated production of over 2 billion pounds represented about three-fifths of t"e totel rayor production. Ra^on production in the United States bepan on a commercial basis about 1910 and since then has increased steadily, and by 1938 more totel reyon was used in this country that any other fiber, except cotton, tfhtil after World War I, ell reyon produced in this country was mede by the \ T iscose process, but at the present time acetate ravon comprises ebout one-third of ell the ra-^on menufactured in the United States, precticf lly nil o^ the remainder representing viscose rayon with the cuprammonium process used in producing" only small emounts . \J \J Because of differences in th(° c^emicels used end for other technical reasons, the reyons made by these different processes varv in dyeing properties, specific gravity, moisture resistcrc<; , end other properties. Consequently, one tvpe mev be better adapted to a p^rt/cular use then another ^nd by com- bining filament yarns end stable fibers of dif^er^nt tyres, e greater variety of fabrics and -fleets can be obtained. - 5 - TT ntil ab<»ut 1927 all rayon Produced in the United States Was filament rayor., but about thPt +-ime rayon staple, fiter vps introduced commerciallv and since then, production in this country has increased verv rapidly* By 1P39 stable fiber repre- sented a v out 14 percent of the total domestic production of reyor wMch affreg-ated 380 millior rourds or the eauivalert of 900,000 bales of cotton. Uses of ^eyon zv. ^V-narisor vith Other fibers Frio*- to Wc-ld r 'er 11, reyor vas used qui ^e largely in Products v^ere e^eer* erce : s the competitive factor of part"' cular importance. Such uses were found rrirci "pllv in the field of household furnishings and clothinf, particularly women' s ^lo+Hrf. Comparative --tility-was also important for certain uses such as in the li v irr ^ield where ravon displaced cotton, wool, aloaca, and silk. Before the-var tHere were onlv a few insterces w^-ere ravon bad entered industrial uses in moderate quantities. For instance, sere tire fabric ard small quantities of coverings were rsio 'Vom or contained ravon. Despite sore increase i? 1 total domestic consumption of other apnanel fibers in the TT nited States, ravor i released from a fraction of 1 percert of the total of four of the most important apparel fibers (cotton, wool, ravon, and silk) in the early 1920' s to almost 10 percent in 1939. During- this period the consumption of cotton declired from P6.3 "to about 80. 6 Percent of the total ard wool declined from 11.4 Percent in 1920 to about P. 3 percent in 1939. In IPSO slightly more th'^n half of the total shipment of continuous filarent rayon in the United States vent to the knit foods industry and ,iust under half to the woven poods industry. By 1939, however, knit poods were obtaining: less than one-fifth' of the total, \"hereas woven foods accounted for more thar t^ree-f ourths of the. total. 'During - this 20-year Period, there was a substantial increase in the quertity of filament rayon foing- into krit poods, includinp hosiery, urderwerr, Q ters, neckties, and knitted dress poods. In the woven foods industrv bread foods have been taking" lprfer and larfer quantities, while narrow-, foods have shown little absolute increase end have actually declined on a percentage basis. Althoufh statistics showir.f the quantities of staple fiber utilized for individual uses are rot available, it is known that the most important use to date, for starle fiber i s ir woven foods. This includes Production of foods made entirely o^ staple fiber and those containing - mixtures with othT fibers, mostly cotton and n ."ool. w oven fa v rics made ir whole or ir part from stanle fiber have found their ; principal use thus far in women's and men's euterwear, althoug-h sizeable quantities • are also used in various household uses. Factors Irfluerci nf the Rar-j d 3xnansi on in Rayon Tec v nolof ica l Developments J/ Uhdoubtedlv t^chnoloficr 1 developments ^nd the rccompanyirf oualitv impr»ve- inents have been, by f r; r the mo?t import art group of factors accounting - for the t r stnendous increase in ravon production durinp - the past 25 yeers* One of the most fer reaching- of these hns been in the reduction in the size of the individual r^yon 1/ Based largely on material taken from "The ^avon Industry," a release drted April 1944, cont^ininf selected sections of p preliminary report Prepared by the Textile Division of the United States Tr riff Cornmission. - 6 - fi lamer. ts comprising: the continuous filament rayon ye*-ns. Decreases in the size of the individual filaments in a yarn of a specified size give added strength, pli- ability, covering power, mildness of luster, and softness of feel*. Twerty-fi • veers ag» standard yarn of 150 denier contaired only 12 t« 14 filaments. This number ircreased until in 1931, 40 was the ster.da-d number for tMs size varn« Since 193^ rayon yarns have been produced with filaments even finer* then these spun by the silkworm and shortly before th.e outbreak of ^orld War IT, 150 denier yarn a v ere being produced with from 150 to 2 9 5. filaments. These develorrents end e^dod strength resulting frsm developments other .than the decreased size end increased number of filaments probably have been an important factor in a substantial increase in the production of fine yarns end in the total production. Be^weer 192? end 1936 the production of fine rayon yarns (112 denier or finer) increased from P. 5 percent to 24.3 percent. Delustering. methods and greater uniformity in the yerns elso con- tributed to an expansion in market outlets for reyon. In so far as the pest two decades ere concerned the development of reyon staple fiber is probably the most important of all developments in rayon processing. Although it was produced to a considerable extent in Germany during the first World War as a substitute for scarce netural fibers, interest subseauently wened and as late as 1930 the estimated world production of stable fiber wes only 6 million pounds. The renewed interest was reportedly influenced by the successful utiliza- tion of rayon waste in the wool spinrirg industry. Although originelly intended primsrilv es e wool substitute, reyon steple fiber has made its greatest edvence- ment in this country as e material for the cotton spinning industry. The wide adaptability of staple fiber has been en important fector contribut- ing to its phenomenal growth, although a substantial rert of the increased world production of staple fiber resulted from efforts by the totals tarian countries (Germany, Japan, and Italy) to become self-sufficient. Its versatility end adapt- ability for various uses, either sep8ratelv or in blending with other fibers, have permitted the development of a much larger variety of fabrics, style effects, end designs. Blending with other fibers is accomplished in a number of weys depending on the fecilities available end the spinning system employed. Sometimes blending occurs at the raw stock stage before ce^dirr, but rore freauertly rfter the staple fiber and the other component fiber have each been- separetel"^ semi-processed, and th« blending then made in the desired proportions ir drawing or at en earlier stage. Blending may occur at the yarn stage by doubling and twisting spun rayon yarn witk •ther yerns or by combining with other varps in weaving. Developments in the technology of reyon staple fiber production are under- going constant evolution end are said to be charging with such rapidity t Vp t there are many variations in the methods employed by the dif p erert iranufp.cturerq. methods of producing the staple ^iber up through the formation of the filaments are substantially the same as +t "Ose employed in producing continuous filrment reyon yann. In making a staple fiber by the acetate process, cutting is the only opera- tion recessary often the extrusion of the filaments. In. the viscose process, which is the dominant pnocess, th^re is a marked d 4 *ween the methods of handl- ing the filaments intended for cutting end those intended for y^rn. The fact t ; staple fiber made by these two processes differs in ch^rpcteri sties indicates that the blend of staple fiber made from these two processes provides still mother r of increasing the variety of materials and effects which c*n be produced as a result of the development of steple fiber. •*• 7- ** Prices ■-.-.■-. A downward trend in rayon prices, which has "been closely associated with the technological improvements in rayon production and increased manufacturing effici- encies, has contributed much to the rapid increases in 'rayon consumption and to the utilization of rayon for an increasing number of uses. Prices of rayOn filament yarn declined steadily after World War I until the- middle of 1938, with domestic quotations for the heavily used 150 denier viscose yarn falling from' the all-time peak of $6.00 a pound in early 1§20 to $2.79 in the crop year 1921, to 49 cents in June and July 1938. Since then the price of this yarn has ranged between 51 and 55 cents. From 19 21 to 1938 the average crop year domestic price of 40 ! s single carded cotton yarn at New York declined from 53 to 30 cents per pound, but hy 1943 had in- creased to 52 cents. The price of 150 denier rayon filament yarn, as a percentage of the price of 40 ' s single carded cotton yarn, declined from 52"^ in 1921 to 168 in 193S and to 107 in 1943. • *.*', Comparisons between rayon filament yarn and better qualities of cotton yarns would show somewhat similar relative changes over the past 25 years as those .indicated above. But the.- -competition between rayon and cotton at any particular time is, undoubtedly, more nearly indicated by the use of better quality cotton yarns than 40' s single carded- yarns (which were readily available for a period of years) used above to indicate the changes in prices over 'a period of years'. For many purposes rayon is chosen, at least by the ultimate consumer", more for appear- ance than for any other reason. Consequently, a combed, mercerized, and gassed yarn of approximately equal, size (such as 70' s 2-ply)' -would be more nearly equiva- lent to 150 denier rayon yarn in consumer appeal and for other purposes cotton yarns of even higher quality are required to equal rayon yarn in consumer appeal. In • recent months, the price-for "base-grade" combed 2-ply 70' s cotton yarn when gassed and mercerized was $1.33 per pound. This compares with prices of ' 55 cents for 150 denier viscose rayon yarns of less than 60 filaments, and 57 cents for the same size and types of yarns with 60'^ and more filaments, both with the standard number of turns per inch. For some uses the rayon yarn might need'to be given s6me J addi- tional twist when being used in place of 70/2 cotton yarn with- a standard number of turns per inch. This would increase the price of rayon yarn, but would still leave rayon with an important price advantage in comparison with cotton yarn. Domestic prices of rayon staple fiber have alsy declined considerably since it. first was introduced on a sizeable scale about 1928. Quotations for standard type viscoie staple fiber declined steadily from 60 cents a pound in each of the crop years 1928-30 to 25 cents a pound in October 1937, and have been at that level on slightly .lower since then. Between 1932 and 1937 when this type of rayon "staple fiber deolined 6O1 percent, the domestic price of Middling 15/l6-inch -cotton in- 6reaseu • approximately 25 percent.- From mid-1939 to October 1944 -the price of Middling 15/l6-inch cotton in this country increased by 123 percenty whereas rayon staple fiber remained about unchanged at 24 or 25 cents per pound. Considering - differences in spinning waste, the costs of Middling 15/16-inch cotton on a net- weight basis delivered to the spinning mill as of October, November, and December 1944 are about the same as the costs of standard viscose -.rayon staple fiber oh a comparable, basis.. During the first 4 years after its introduction (1928-31) this quality of cotton averaged only about one-fourth of the cost of staple fiber. Fur- thermore, during the intervening period there have been improvements in the quality of rayon staple fiber while Middling 15/l6-inch cotton is about the- same quality today as in the earlier years. - 8 - For many uses rayon staple fiber is. spun into yarns of such fineness, uni- formity, and luster that it competes more directly with cotton of higher grades and longer staples than Middling 15/l6-inch. Consequently, for such uses cotton is higher relative to staple fiber than indicated above since there are substantial', price premiums on the better qualities of cotton and since rayon staple fiber is the same price per pound irrespective of staple length. For example, the net cost to the spinning mill for Strict Middling l-l/l6 inch cotton per pound of useable fiber (after allowing for tare and manufacturing wast el based on October I9UH price quota- tion was somewhat higher than the net cost of rayon staple fiber on a comparable basis. Strict Middling 1-1/8 inch cotton for use in combed yarns was from 35 to ^ percent higher than rayon staple fiber. Rayon staple fiber also has certain other advantages over cotton although they cannot readily be reduced to quantitative terms. These include greater sim- plicity of handling rayon staple fiber as compared with cotton in the early stages Of the process of manufacturing these fibers into yarns, and the freedom from dust and lint, in the case of staple fiber. The first of these reduces manufacturing eost and the latter is reportedly of some importance in securing and retaining tex- tile workers. Another significant difference is the greater stability of rayon staple fiber prices and the complete uniformity in the quality of the synthetic fiber. These two factors combine to reduce the operating risk due to changes is the inventory values of the raw material and the expenses involved in securing uni- form qualities of raw material when operating on staple fiber aa compared with cottoa. In using raw cotton the manufacturer usually fi&ds it necessary to employ highly trained specialists for the explicit purpose of classing and purchasing raw cotton and maintaining proper hedging operations against price -changes, whereas little expense of this nature is secessary in the procuriiig aad using of rayoa staple fiber. * Data for Germany atd the United Kingdom show that ryyon filament yarn prices in those countries declined greatly during the 1920' s and 19*50' s as did prices in the United States. In Germany the prices of staple fiber and filament y-.-i (average of 120 and 180 denier yarns) remained unchanged from 1938 through 1 the latest year for which data ere available) at a level about 6 and 10 pejcer'. ; rssp actively, less than i*. 1937. From the standpoint of the foreign production of rayor, the price;; and costs of the raw materials used in producing rayon textiles 1:1 comparison with those used in producing cotton and wool textiles appear to be highly important, especially is view of the source from which the raw materials are obtained. In general, the price of wood pulp, the usual source of cellulose from which rayon is produced, delivered to the manufacturers is .equivalent to not more thar. k or 5 cents per psund of rayon yarn. Normally cotton, costs the canufaoturer at least 2 to 3 times this amount. Even after including .the cost of chemicals, the materials' costs are much less for rayon than for cotton und inrmost lorelgnr.cotmtrioa '.producingo import- ant quantities of rayon, the cotton is all imported while in some of them the wood pulp is available without the expenditure of any foreign exchange. In the United States the total cost of wood or linters pulp and chemicals in 1929 ( the only year for which these costs are sho^n. separately) represented a l'.ttle less than one-fifth of the total valine of the output of rayon yarn and allied products industry compared with a raw cotton cost equivalent to roughly 50 j-erce ?.t of the value of the cotton yarns produced for sale. Assuming that the per v.uit cost 0:' jrulp and chemicals was .- •n the average approximately the same for staple fiber as for the rayon industry as a whole, the raw material costs in. 1929 would have represented a little under two- fifths of the value of staple fiber. - Q _ Data published in the Yokohama Cotton Industrial Tires in 1935 indicated that in Japan the costs of pulp and chemicals pt that t:re represented aooroyimately 51 Dercent of the to+-al cost of 120 denier rayon wnii while raw cotton represented almost 92 percent of the cost o^ nuTrber 20*8 cotton vrn. l/.Tn view of the fact that most of the important foreign rpyon producing countries were important raw cotton manufacturing cou^tri-Ts, dependent almost entirely noon imports for their cotton requirements but not nearly so dependent on imports for pulp and chemicals, makes the differences in comparative material prices and c*sts especially important. This is particularly true in connection w5'th problems of foreign exchange hrlpnces pnd the efforts of Governments to become mo~e self-suff ic ient « Covernment Policies Governmental policies have be?r especially important in expanding rayon Pro- duction in Germany, Italy, and Japan. The Governments- of these countries encouraged expanded synthetic fiber production by restrictions on the us? or production of textiles fVom oth^r fibers, or by recurring a mixture of rayon with cottan or other fibers, and by restricting — through Quotas and imoort duties — the impor- """'tion of cotton. Such policies resulted mainly from an attempt to become more sel^-suf r icient and from difficulties in obtaining adeauate • suooli «s of natural fibers due to shortages of foreign exchange. » The compulsory admixture of rayon stp.ple fiber in Germany began in November 1936 when the. geods produced by cotton' mi lis ^or the domestic market were required to contain one-sixth, and l°te"r ore-fifth, o^ substitute fibers and those of the w»ol°n mills about twice t^ose prorortiors. In September 1936 Hitler announced that, as orrt of the' w 4-year Plan," it was intended that stp.ple fiber should suoolant as large a proportion as possible of the cotton and ,, ool then imported. It was further declared that in order to obtr-in the w-ximum mixture of staple p iber allowed by the then current technical possibilities, it was the aim to provide rayon staple fiber in place of 50 percent of Germany's cotton requirements and 20 Percent of its wool requirements, and that facilities would have to be established to increase Germany's production to l^O.OOO metric tons annually. The comoulsorv mixing by Italian manufacturers of domestically produced ■fibers with raw cot+or began in 1936, Stprt.ing with 5 percent, the proportion of the adm^xtur- wf s increased as the available "mount of domestic fiber ircr-^ased. In April 1939 the s^le in. Italy of products of cure co J - + on or pure wool were for- bidden and all but certain/ 1 sp°ci^l products for the domestic market were required to contain at least 20 percent of substitute fibers mainly rayon staple fiber cr hemo. Under the pressure to conserve foreign exchange after the outbreak of hos- tilities with China in July 193 r? , Japan started a severe curtailment of its imports of raw cotter through exchange control. Soon thereafter, Japanese manufacturers Were ordered to mix 30 percent o^ r r yon staple fiber with cotton and with wool in asking textile products for the domestic market.. In the middle of 193R a system 1/ Haw cotton would, : however, -represent a smaller percentage of the cost o^ fin<=r cotton yprns, prices of which vre not readily available. - 10 - was introduced whereby the amount of new. material that cot+frn spinning companies were permitted to imoort was mede derer.dert upon the vol - cotton manufactures they exported or delivered to exporters*' • About the sains tire, Janen. so fer as to prohibit the use of any cotton ir th$ production of cloth except ^or military use 8nd other special purposes. or for exront to areas Q-tside of Japan, Ka^churia, ar.d those parts of Ch ir 8 -vh <--•>' e Japanese currency was being used. The shortage of foreirn exchange or t^e part of these 8rd other r oreipn countries for use in importing' cotton and other fibers was. due in rart to the high tariff rates imposed on poods imported into tv-« l-nHed States and. other courtries. The reduced supply of fo^e^pr exc^arpe for -use in .purchesinp cotton. 8n.d wool t else influenced by the richer priority placed on other imported pr the Crovemment or by individuals operating: under comnlete freedom of choice) reauir:- foreigr ayc v vrre. "The tTnited States Government's cotton Production controle^d cot+or prn^e support policies^ through their effects on^cotton pricer, have eleo affected domestic and forelpn production and consumption of ray Additiore.l ^actors .... ' j. — . There are' a rusher of ed^" t i oral fector.s. v-^ - ch have also contributed to t v e ircreased world' end Hh.lted States product ion and -con sum.pt ? on o* ra ,r o"n. These in- clude advert isi r", the wide Irerietv o p rfa v rics and effects obtainable fr<~r ravon with the resulting appeal to consumers, end the distribution of irfo^-mat ion regard- ing- the care of the various types o^ rsyors. As suggested un-'er Prices, the manu- facturers preference for reyorv, at 'least for .cert8 < - ua s, " J "■ : th the same gross manufacturing: margin ; «bv also be a factor o-f >OQnsiderabl ee« In addition, the war probably ^as stimulated ra-'-or and other synthetic fiber production, particularly ir> the Axis-controlled erer-s of the world. Development s During World War JI Rayon Production and' Consumption - In the United States totsVl ravoh production and consumption have continued to increase very rapidly during the var period despite th9 scarcity of materials and labor which has existed durirsr a -part of the P3riod.- /Ravon Production for 1943 was a little over twice as" large as the- lT?6-39 average and in 1944 shows a. 9 per- cent increase over 19^3. In connection with rtire expansion, it is highly significant that much of the increased production hrs v een in. the high tenec:"' hiph strength ravon which v ss been required for certain military tires. This type of ravon, which is mainly Produced from the. Mphest grade of cellulose 8nd by* a special process which stretches tvi e -*rarn while it is heing spun, is much higher ir tensile strength than ordinary r 8 von. In 1939 the-e was a very s^all production of this type of. rayon and the qvsntitv of r?von tire fabric used aoparertlv represente not more than 2 o** 3 percent of the total tire, fabric production-.- S.ince th ever, the increased production and use of rp,von tire fabric have been preptly accelerated, particularly since its us-e i-s now reouinAd, in so fw as available supplies permit, in bertftir ol~ss-.es of* mi-lit a-rv tines (both fo.r motor vehi cles and for aircraft) which r re used in large quantities. The decision to use ravon fabric in these tires w r s sp^ri to have been m<" d^ on the claini~thrt ^hi-s fabric -would give longer wear and withstand prerter strips Td shocks, .thus saving scarce rubhe cl°im which has been disputed in c -* r ■ ir au^t9»*s . a •• - 11 - In order to provide increased hifh tenecitv"*Vpyor -for tlroB nnd limited other uses, th - Wnr -Product &on Bo<- *-d alloonted- tWr>.- ..p-oe^ssarv ratorifls and -the Defense Plants Corporation r>rovi ded a - subs-H^r-t. i al t pf}rt of # tho- cOvst of exp'e*:fi'ding the production capacity. Whereas ; inl939 the production ~ of thir tyns) of rayon probably was only a few pillion nounds, it is now. expected, that production, of tiro type hipher tenacity rpyon in 1944 will r-.ech a total -of between • 12Q. and 130 million pounds and in 19^5, ■"'hen the -Government sponsored; propra-m > i s completed, total production capacity for hi ph tenacity rayon is expected to reach 240 million pounds, *a very largo- part of wh:' eh is for-use ir»-tires. Th». latter is^.ecfuivclsnt , t# rouphly 750 thousand bales of raw cotton , assuming 3 pounds of rayon tire fabric will displace about 4 pounds of cotton tire fabric and •rft'-r -a llowinp for the waste in spinning raw cotton. - Such 'a production would -be -.sufficient yarn for rour^ly one- fourth rnore- tire fabric th ( n was produced on the .everape-durin.g the 5. -.'•ears 1935*39 • •.-••■ , r . . ..-.._ tZ „ ... •. . . e>Despite the increased production of hi ph tenacity rayon, wlvcfcv-s nrac- tically all continuous filament yrrn, the pere^ntape increase in the production cf rayon staple fiber- has been -much' more rap^d than that- i n^ filament yarn durinp the war period. This was th c ; case also for the doecde immediately before the war. The absolute increase, hot'-eve**, h°-s- ^een l"rp 5 r for fil^-rent th^n for- -staple fib^r. Sorre of the increase in- -the* product i on' of staple fiber during a part of the ..war . period was probably, due to restrictions on wool consumption. The limited production of cotton poods, for civilian* u.se has undoubtedly stimulated the use of staple fiber and* rayon filament yarn. Jn' some instprces these factors have r^sulVed in rayon filament- yrrn and staple fiber en+erinp certain civilian uses much earlier than would have beer the case-had cotton poods been more plentiful p-hd at a lower, price. - . The. increased production of hiph tenacity rayon durinp the war period has practically all pone into tires for- the military services. Rut the development of this type of rayon has important implications for the future, both with respect to continuous f-il anient' yarn and staple fiber. There are perhaps other technological developments .occurrinp durinp the war -period, both' in the production of ,rayon end other synthetic ficbers , which may be important to synthetic fiber production in the years immediately ahead. . - - In- fo-re-ipn count ries - the wr r has likewise stimulated, the production of rayon, especially in the Axi s-oontro.lled areas (at least up throuph- 1942) where supplies of cotton and wool were larpely restricted by blockade. In Great Britain end possibly a few other but smaller rayon producinp countries, production ha ( s. declined, but in most non-Axis controlled countries Production h°s been exranded. The reduc- tion -in Great Britain- was due- larpely to labor and shippinp shortages. In Switzer* land and Sweden the inability to obtain adepua^e supplies of imported cotton, end wool contributed to a. • further expansion in ra^yon Production. In Mexico and Chile rayon producinp industries have been established since: the war started, .due., rj t l°ast in part, to restricted imports of cotton and raven textiles from Axis-con- trolled areas, the United kingdom, and elsewhere. •Estimates of rayon production in many foreipn countries durinp the v~r o-riod are limited, but such .data es are available indicate that ., in the Axi s-cont rolled- areas, where production in 1942 represented possibly three-fourths of the world, total, staple fiber production has also increased more rapidly durinp the war poriod n has filament yarn ppoduction. This mipht be expected in view of the l»rge quantity of wool and cotton- formerly imported into these countries but not accessi- ble durinp the war period, rayon staple fiber beinp adaptable both to cotton and woolen textile machinerv. • - 12 - Other Synthetic Fiber Product ion In the United States synthetic fibers other than v, eyon'r-ow in commercial production include nylon, vinyon, vinyon E, sa<-ar, casein fiber, and glass p iber» I'ost of these have come irto cofTO'-c^al production since the outbreak of the war in 1P39 or were of very neplip-ible importance ~ricr to that tire. Fach of these fibers has certain distinctive qrorerties and uses which may contribute to its increasing importance' after the war, when riant facilities can be expanded as desired. Althoup-h ryl«n r iber has been ir cwmerei al production only about 5 veers, -it has established itself in certain uses, particularly in hosiery, to such an extent there is li+tle duestion but that marked exnanrinrs in production wi 11 occur follow* inr the war. During most of the period since Fearl Harbor, a Larpe part o r t] nvlon produced in the United States has been reserved fcr military uses, particularly for parachutes and airplane tires. By 19*52, before res^ri ctiors on materia Is end labor presented' further expansions ir production facilities, nylon production capa- city hod reached about 20 million rounds per year, this representing a- -phenomenal ircrease over the 4 million rounds capacity existing at t v e close of 1939. Vinyon fiber, which is made from a special prade of vinyl resin, has be°r. in commercial production only a few years qnd is being Produced in relatively small quantities. Thus ^ar vinvon fiber has been used mostly r rr filter cloths due t« its unusual resistarce to acids, alkalies, and ©"'"her liquids and gases.- It also has been used to a limited extent in ^is*" nets and fish lines, where its resistarce *a water is advantageous, end in floves, uptyolstery, end millinery cloth. Its dry tensile strength compares favorably with that of igh tenacity rayon and, unlike rayon, loses no^e of its strength when, wet. It also has excellent elasticity. Vinyon, however, shrinks at 150° v . , which precludes its use in garments an4 ether textiles that are ironed at ordinary temperatures. Saran fiber, which is made from vinVlidere chloride resins, has orlv recently been introduced and production is ro\" comparatively small. Thus f ar, the ^ibers have been made in only 4 sizes and their tensile strength is about compereble with that of ordinary visccse rayon. Of the limited produc+ion of saran fiber, now believed to be'totaling about one million pounds r^er year, all or practically all of it goes irto screening. Previously, u oweven, it elso went into upholstering and other fabrics and at least experimentally in cordf.ge. S-ren, too, '°as the adven - tape of. being highly resistant to acids and common alkalies, and is Practically waterproof. Considerable research has be°n performed in this country and elsewhere in recent years in an effort to develop synthetic ^ibers f ron natural ^"otein materiel such as casein-, soybe-ans, peanuts, corn, and fish. Thus fer, cpsein fiber is the only one of these which is in commercial production in the United States, although sovbean fiber is being produced experimentally on a pilot pl<"-t scale. Casein fiber was first introduced on b commercial brsis in the United States e^out 1940 and 1 1S43 Production had increased to about P million rounds per year. Casein 4 s the principal raw'meterial' of casein fiber, the source of casein v *ire- skimmed wi Ik which' yields about 3 percent of its weirht in this material* Chemicallv,. this fiber is fairly similar to wool and err be dyed with the same kind ?»f dyes, is comparable with wool in its appearance, wrrm^h quel* ties, and moisture absorption Qualities. It is, *oh the o^hnr hand, loss elastic and ntt as erease^resistant e s wool,, end has 8 som^T-'hat lower dry strength end r much low^r wet strength thf.n vool. ^r- to present time, casein fiber h"s beer us -d very largely p or bl-^ndirr with r<\yon, cotton, wool, and fur, it s«rvinr as B cheap substitute for vool or fur. \ --13 - Glass fiber has boen produced ccmrnereiallyifl the United States somewhat longer then some of ; the other synthetic fibers, but rmly within the last f v years hps it been available in both continuous filament yarns' end staple fiber form. One ^f the outstarding .^rQoortios of pleas textiles is their ability to withstand high temperatures, with little or no damage. They are also uraf fected* 'bv many of the chemicals that ere highly injurious to other texti leg , are highly moisture resist'rt, end are free from attack by micro-organisms. Although they possess unusually high tensile strength, glass fibers lack resiliency,, elasticity, «nd are brittle. Con- sequently, glass fiber frbrics lack durability when subjected to a great deal of bending end are not generally suitable for clethirgf "Glass fiber textiles, however., he-re decided advantages for such uses 8S filter cloths, for' certain types of >lec- trical insulations, and for fireproof fabrics where no important amount of bending occurs. In foreign countries the production of synthetic fibers other than rnvon is believed to have ircreesed considerably durinr the war Period, although practically no soeci^ic data are available. The first casein fiber to be Produced on a com- mercial scale was developed in Italv and wes nlaced on the market in the spring. of 1936. By 1P3P Italian production had increased to nearly 4 million pounds per ya-ar and by the bee-inning of the war patent rights had been' purcha sed bv several other European countries, some of which were -'Producing 1 casein fiber on a limited scale. This and the scarcity of cotton and wool in the Axis-controlled areas make it seem reasonable that the Production of casein fiber, as well as rayon and other synthetic fibers in the Axis areas probably incr »ased considerably following 1939. Probable Post -War Trends in Synthetic fibers In view of the sharp upward trend in r^von production and consumption in the past 35 years and the continuing technolorica 1 improvements of recent years, there seems every reason to expect that the upward trend in synthetic fiber production will continue well into the post-war period and Provide tremendous competition f^r cotton. The annual rate of increase, however, will, no doubt, be very much less in the future than for the 10 years-ended 1942, when the average annual percentage increase in total rayon production was 18 and 22 Percent, respectively, for the United States and for foreign countries^ If the annual averare percentage increase foil owing 1942 were only half as great as in the previous 10 years, the United States production of rayon in 1952 would be "eauivalent" on the basis previously indicated, to 3 million b^les of cotton and the total world' production in 1952 would be eoual to 22 million bales of cotton. The latter would be only 21 percent less than the l?35-39 average annual world mill consumption of 2f% million bales of raw cotton. Even with a much higher peace-time level of consumer incomes than in the past, it seems improbable that the consumers of the United States rnd other •flVfftri^S could increase their purchases of textiles sufficiently to provide outlets ?D-r the a'bove quantities .of. rayon and at the same time provide outlets for o l^rge ^nrtion of the. cotton, other -natural and synthetic fibers, and pap4> likely to H v e produced in 1952. An absolute- increr se in worl^ 'production of rayon during the ve°rs following 1942 equivalent to the increase for the preceding 10 years would five a world production 8 years hence eauivalent to roughly 1 A mi llion bales. °f cotton, 2^- million bales of which would be Produced in the United States. An in- crease of even this size would have a very important effect en the demand for raw cotton. - u - Tr addition to the fact that rayon and o-'-her synthetic fi^er oroduction ^as become so lsrge thet United ccnsumir outlets of textiles seem almost certain to C8use a declinirr r^te of increase in the synthetic 'fiber nroduction, there ere other factors which pIso s^em likely to contribute to p reduced rete of increase. One of the most imrortent of t^esc, which is apolicrblo both to the United States and to foreign countries, is the fact th.Pt r urth >r fbsolute reductiors in prices of v yon will necessarily be much smaller than in the past sire; processing techniques' and the advantages of large-scale op°r p tiors carrot possible reduce future costs to the arme extent as has been possible, duriner the ppst 10 years. Ir foreign countries synthetic fiber p»*oducti o*n in the post-war period will lprgely defend u^on the- level of rurehpsir.g power of consumers in these countries, general internet lone 1 trade and monetary arrangements, possible export cutlets, relr-tiv rrices of synthetic fibers "nd oo^petinr fibers, and, in the oprly p*"*rt of the period, the extent to which the mills of the Axis-controlled countries were damaged by military oryrations °nd related activities. It seems quite likely that the damages and disruptions to the mills, trans- portation facilities, snd ot>->~r caDital equi om-°nt »n^ the economic organization of the Axis-controlled ar~~s of Europe pnd Jrrpr growing out of t^e war may result in rn pctual reduction in the ^creigr production c r revon r or perh°ps 2 or more veers, If so, this would be important in holding down the average rpte of increase in foreirn and world synthetic fiber production during the 10 vears from 1942 to l r Ar other factor which m<"v slew up the expansion *■? ravor in the early post- wpr period is the limited purchasing powr of consumers and the reed for pn pbnor- mally l°rge proportion of the aye il able income for. food, shelter, c fcher n- - textile items. Even if r.s e result rf depleted stocks, the effective demand for textiles materially exceeds the wartime output of mills, the staple fiber available for processing on cotton machinery would likely be such th r t longer hours of machinery operation than before the vp.t would be roc- >6sary if a ven' considerable proportion of the pre-war consumption of cotton were"used« In connection with the outlook for the post-war peri •, it is highly signifi- cant that most foreign rayon producing ccuntri o s were formerly imoortr.r.t cotton manufacturing countriSs importing a large port Df their raw cotton requirements. In these countries the Production of..reyon instead of cotton textiles permits im- portant savings of monetary balances .held in foreign countries. The usual source of cellulose is wood pulp which, is usually available to these countries at costs equivalent to n^t more than 4 n r 5 cents a round of fiMr and often with no expend itures whatever of foreign exchange.. . C^untrios with well developed ehemioal indu tries have available domestically poorly all r>f the mpteria Is -other than pulp needed in rayon production. For example, it h r s been estimated that before the the rew materials which had to be imported into England in ore'er to manufacture IOC tons of viscose rayon th -> re cost 2,846 pounds; p nd for acetate rayon, 3,361 pounds as compared with 6,299 pounds for ,114. tons of cotton reeded to p^o^uee 100 ton* cotton yarn; and 15,^93 rounds for 166 tors of gr a asv cross-b-lended wool, suffici- ent to produce 100 tors of -»orsted yarn. \J \J Taken from an prticlf in t v e Silk Journal nr^ ^y n r World for Aoril 1941. - 15 - In the evert post-war international tre^o and monetary relations pre such that foreign eountries are h»»rd»pr@s,aed. f far foreign exchange, the gcvemerts of these countries m*y limit the- importation of cotton en^ other nrtural fleers one? in other ways eneouref3 increased Production °f rayon and other synthetic fibers. Such substitution of ray^n for BWI.cn v'ps ■particularly important in Germany, T t'ely, and Japan in the late 1930' s err' pay continue to he Important in the oost-w»r peri - ^. In the United Kingdom the loss of external sources of income during 1 tho war end heavy indebtedness to the United States could make the same censideretions arolic- able there, especially with respect to the .importation of American s^tton. Frarce and sore' of the other countries that have been under Axis control may fi^d that it the reconstruction period demands on funds available for ^oreign exchange will dictate at least some forced substitution of rayon for cotton and wool. VJherc '«- employment is « Problem, the additional labor involved in producing rayen mev als« give foreign governments ar incentive to encourare ravon Production and ednsumption at the expense of cotton which must be imoorted. In the United States the trend of rayon production is also expected to con-' tihue upward, but the annual Percentage increase probably will be less than in the- past. The same seems to bo a reasonable expectation in regard to total domestic synthetic fiber product i or, even though nylon and some of the other synthetic fibers may expand at a very rapid rate in the vears immediately ahead. T^e actual annual increases are expected to continue relatively large, particularly in the case of staple fiber for which *he potential market seem* large and where relativelv little -commercial advantage has been taken of certain reeent technological advances such as the development of high strength fiber. The extent of the increase in synthetic fiber production will be influenced by the extent of technological developments in synthetic fiber manufacture and, particularly in ravon staple fiber, by domestic prices of synthetic fiber, cotton, ard wool. To a lesser decree the increases mey also be influenced by techmloricel developments in processing and marketing of cotton and wool. ■ -* In trying to anticipate the future trends in rayon prices, it is well to examine some of the component rerts of the cost of rayon oroduotion. These edsts' include wages, salaries, raw materials , power, packaging materials, depreciation , and overhead. It should be poirted out, however, that statements ha've appea-red i» trade publications to the effect that the price of rayon staple fiber would be substantially lover immediately after the war ends. Between 1925 and 1939 (the first and l°st years for whi oh Census data are available) the Production of ravon and allied products increased 181 percent in value compared with an increase of P25 percent in the quantity of these items prc^,- dueec*. Reduced to a raw-cotton-bale equivalent (assuming 425 pounds of rayon to be equivalent to a 500-pound gross weight brie of cotton'), it is found that in 1£25 the value 9f a bale of rpyon w^s $721 of which 29 percent represented -"'ages and 21 percent materials cos"*"s, mainly wood or linters pulp and chemicals. By 1939 the-, value per bale eauivalent had declined to $>218, of which 31 end 3S percent, resoet- tively, represented wages and materials. Despite an increase in the average hourly earnings of wage earners in rayon and allied industries of between one-fourth and one-third from 1925 t» 1939, the labor costs oer unit of output decreased 7 2 Percent. Between 1925 and 1939 the hourly outrut per worker increased some 350 percent or more. Although it is ex- pected that hourly earnings in rayon manufacturing may average substantially afeave the 1939 level in' the post-war period, ft" is possible that unit labor costs mey advance relatively little or even decline depending upon the extent to which fur- ther technological and other develonmerts increase the hourlv output of workers • - M - The materials used in rayon * ^ture include wood • rd lihtexs pulp, chemi- cals, fuel, pow •, ■ "d contrir -r. Tr. 1S28, the only f< - which s^r-era^e de'ta for these vtrious cost ?.re a- , the vood and lingers pulp used in the production of rayon and' allied products r, -t , enemies la 11 percent-, and the 'total material a ( including fuelj i erjd pi materials) 22 percent of the total- value of th^ products of this indur 4 - ;-••. By 1939 the total cost of raw rials'^ row^r,-and c«ck«p irg raateri e Is ^ represented 3? percent of the toi of the output. : of the industry. The postwar situation may well be f ble to somewhat/ lower materiel costs than,, at the ore sent time when prices of both r'^ yon yarn - and* ate pie, fiber e^e be lav those. of 1C39. As a result' of the expansion in the chemical industry durirg the war, it is entirely possible th^t tr y be a l'c" lev-- 1 of- price a for chemicals in the veers immediately ahead. Furthermore, as the rtime requirements end for vood and lir.ters puIp and the Scandinavian st of palpwcod become eve i la ble, 4 yon manufr oturers" cost of cellulose m«y' declii fee *r b- Tor the 4969 lev-el. . ■ Overhead, including .depreciation and", obsolescence^ orobably represents i imobrtant part of the production ports oth ir than labor and rav mat ri°ls« The rayon industry is reported to he ore in wljich the obsolescence rate is especially high, "thus resulting in mor.e .then usual overhead cos f % Techr.olori cal improvements have presumably b>°>r> so rapid that much machinery freouently has been outmoded long before being: worn out* Althou-' .thia m' y continue to be p factor', the reduced r « f expansion and the. probability of a sloping down in the rate of technological im- provements Trey v^ll - reduce^ove^h ?ad cor 4 ' s during .the yeors immediately ahead. How- ever,* in the avert the industry. expends *"p the bpint" l .that c considerable proportion of the rayon-' machinery is idje,.tbis will" tend to increase i 'head cos 4 - . Means of Improving Ajrerican Cotton's Comoe'Ejtive Position - It is evident frpm the.. foregoing that in the nost-w r period American cotton is likeTy to fn.ee. increased eppjpetitior from synthetic fibers. j r , addition it will also, face strenuous . corpeti tier from foreign cottons, ^* tural fibers, and paper. Even though, this statement deals primarily with synthetic a, brief attention should be given. t.o the increased competition "which, American cotton'will free from foreign cotton in the post-war period arid the increasing competition fro er« •i - As of August 1, 1944, the world carry-over, o" foreign cotton of nearly l*-j? million br.les was approximately 7 million ^ r lis larger than in 1939 and plm'ost 3 'times as Targe as -the average of the.. decade of the lf2C's. 'Although the productio: of' foreign cotton during* the .war period has .been reduced somevh>tj most of this reduction h^s been- in China, Russia, Eivrt °rd India mostlv as a result of mi liter operations or t^e reed, supported in some instances by Government action, fdr in- creased food production. Jj)^sr ; te the. reduced production, the total vorld supply of foreign- cotton in 19*3-44 of nearly 2Ph million'b' 1 a wi s" more than 4 million bales larger than in 1939 pnd - rrrox' ; f r > ^ly 13, million bal^s larger than the 1920- 29 averare. These corfre with a peak r or^rr 1 mill consumption of f--ll cotton of nearly 22-3/4 millicn b'-l.^s c nd..a 1980-29. average consump+ion o r a little under 16 million .bales *> Another - •deveSftgsne.nt, which has been auite i"-po~trrt since r 'o>*ld T?ar I," and has teen* 'stimulated bv World Wer.JJ,. i.s v th expanded mill consumption o^ locelTy- grown cot + orv in countries .formerly impc-ting l^rg tities of cotton textiles. r ost of t»hese fawo-rts- of cr + * on text*,] ^rcr 1 Sur trie? and Japan, whiah were denendert -entirely upon imported cotton. Tr. 1934-38 the net exports of cotton textiles from Euror; and Japan i * to roughly 2^> million aalesl * 17 - of raw cotton end' contained considerable rronortions cf American cotton. An import- r-rt part of these exports went to such countries as Indie, Egvpt, Turkey, Argentine;, Peru, -and Brazil, all of which ere cotton producing and exoortire: countries. Since H3K the production of cotton textiles within pos 4 " of these countries has increased materially. Several of these countries ray emerge from the war a? net exoorters of cotton textiles. This switch in cotton textile nroduction from En rone and ^^r, ; , r to 4 v se cotton producing countnies will reduce the world imnort requirements for cotton i thus decrease exports". This may tend to stimulate both the consumnti on end production of foreign cotton, but, in. any event, weakens the doippetitrive position of An srican cotton in relation to foreign growths. In 1939 more than 500 million pounds of paoer were consumed in sne^ items rs [tissues, handkerchiefs, napkins, and towels. This war equivalent on a pound--T>er- pound basis to approximately 1 million bales of raw cot+on. In addition, a aur'ntity of paper equivalent in pounds to over 200,000 Vies o** cotton went into gummed r-r-zr tepeB which' compete with^cott on and other fibers in twine or cordage. But ros f im- portant of all is the use of reo^r in bags. In Biultivp.ll bars £ lone (baps which com- pete most directly with cotton and jute bars), the quantity of paper used was equiva- lent in pounds to possible 3/4 million bales of cotton. Between 1929 <=nd 1P3P the ircreased use of paper in the above-mentioned items vps very pronounced. On an equivalent use-basis the above quantities of paper would be eoual ■'-o a v^ry much smaller Quantity of rr-.v cotton than indicated when expressed on a p^und-P^r-pound besis. Furthermore, some o^ + he paper used in the Rhcve items represents a dis- placement of .iute and possibly o+her fibers besides cotton, and some of it represents a net increase in. the use o^ the above items which, would not be met if these paper items were not available. It is apparent, nevertheless, that American cotton is faced with serious competition not orlv p rom synthetics and 'foreign cqtten, "but also from paper. The extent to which American cotton will be a v lo to me^t the increased com- petition from its competitors in the post-war Period will depend upon many factor's. One of the most important of these is the price at which American cotton is m r d: available to domestic and foreign manufacturers. This, in turn, will deoend u^c^ the Government's cotton price support and international trade policies is well -s upon the extent to which substantial reductions can be made in production and dis- tribution costs. Through the numerous research and action programs of the Federal and 'State Governments and the various private agencies, firms, and individuals of the Cotton Belt, much h? s been done in recent y°frs to help strengthen American oottor's com- petitive position and make cotton gnowing mo^e erofi" t "°bl° to domestic farmers. t fhese accomplishments involve soil conservation and soil building activities; farm m^n^gement practices; varietal development; methods of controlling insects and dis- eases; ginning, packaging, and marketing facilities and methods; and the develspryeht and promotion of new and expanded uses for cotton. Largely a s a result of these various developments, the vie Id per Pcre in 19 A 0- A 4 averaged 50 percent higher than in 19?8-32, the man-hours of labon required in producing a given au p nt-tv of cotton have been, gneatly reduced, ginning services havg heen materially imnroved, farmers now have access to Government classifications on l^nge proportions of their cro^, the staole length o^ the crop has increased, Td new uses and new methods of oro- cessing naw cotton and of treating cotton fabrics have been developed. Rjrthei — more, a program has recently been inaugurated for making American cotton available - 18 - foreign markets et cor^p fciti* World Drioes* Nov- H ss, it is p.ppf-ert t\ even more nppr ^ssive efforts along * ■ nd o + h r lines ere I • ■ ry if Am ricrn cotton is to Void anything like its cr sitior amonf tv- ••■ ^ t .\ fibers. Policies r^gprding cotton prices, acr Pge control?, international cotton pgreererts, end exrort n'-oprn^s, .which ere bevord tho score o^ this rqoort , v ■ ell discussed bv the Secretary of Agriculture-, th War ^ood Administrator., prd numerous others et e special sarins, of hearings held by'a Commit'- 1 - -■-- of the House 'Committee or Agricul- ture durinp the week of December 4 to 9, 1944. T ne importance of the effects of such programs upor cotton's competitive position and upon th-"- domestic pnH ^creign m r rk<-;ts was recognized bv mo?t of th r vitness^s ^cp erirg pt th rse hearings* Although there "'ere vide differences of opinion pmon? those testifyinp before the above-mentioned Ci^rrittee rerardinp o^-ice policies, production control, inter- national commodity rrr- rr-nts, and programs for eidinp cot + on farmers, there were ■ certain activities or oroprams on which there ves little or ro disppre.eroert . It • v*f s quite penerplly pgreed tha-t through the combined coordinated pnd eggr.es si vo efforts of pl^nt breeders, fiber t echnolopi sts , farmers,' pinners, cotton meroh«rts, end cotton monufa cturers , the competitive position of American cotton cculd be strengthened from the standpoint oa the quality of this cotton srd the Products r 4 from it. Likewise, it is rr>ther penera.llv believed thet throuph the aggressive action of these proups r.nd soil technologists, farm management specialists, entomo-'. logists, fprm'maobin" rv manufacturers, pnd textile engineers further important re- ductions in the cost o^ producing r nd di stributing cotton erd cotton poods could be mrde. These developments alonp with + ^ r still greeter efforts to promote rev rnd ex^rnded uses f or cotton would tend to inb^eese the net ir-come of farmers while at the spme time Pro^id'- 1 cot tor rrnuf'-rtu- :, rs end ultimate consumers with lover-priced better-aualitv Product s. - 19 - Table 1.- Ravon: World production Vy countries and areas, 1920-44 l/ , : Great : Other: — r United .'Other * Year ' . Germany, Italy Britain , France Russia : Euroro: States:' Tapen .coun- .World . ,,, 5 , , . . . tries M illion ooundi Total - 6 yarn ard staple f: 3 — ll her 1920 5 2 'l 10 :• 3/ ___ 2/.3S 1921 8 3 9 4 y 15 2/ as 192-2 11 7 . 14 7 13 24 1 :; 77 1P23 . 14 11 17 8 17 35 1 103 1924 23 IP 25 13" 3/ 22 •• 36 ,1 — ? 138 1°25 26 31 30 14 it 29 51 3 1 IP 5 1926. 25 37 26 "19 if 36 • 63 .5 2 212 1927 41 54 39 24 3/ 47 • 76 .10 3 ■ 295 1928 49 57 52 30 it 54 - 97 •17 4 361 1929- • 61 73 55 42 i 58 122 26 4 441 1930 6? 67 48 51 i 58 ■ 128 37 5 45 7 1931- 66 76 54 44 4 • 57 152 48 7 508 1932- 61 72 71 52 6 • 58 • 136 70 9 535 1933 72 84 ' •82 59 9 61 216 99 9 691 1934 * • 101 107 • • 91 62 12 70 - 211 158 13 8 24 1935 136 153 122 66 13 • 74 • 262 238 17 1,081 1936 19.4 196 143 ee 14 79 290 321 19 1,322 1937 . 344 263 152 , 7 $ 15 90 • 342 509 26 1,819 1938 &; 470 268 138 73 16 • V 82 288 58 5 27 1,946 1939 H 620 310 IPO 72 17 5 / 64 • 380 549 36 2,227 1940 y 825 325 150 e/ 17 y 26 ■ 471 5 25 42 2,381 1941 -r- ---• — • 573 - — 2,7P0 194 2 I/I ,100 462 135 .198 30- 5/166 633 700 50 3,473 1943 : -r- — 663 --- 1944 — - — .724 \ Staple fj ber 1929 l ' 2 2 3 — 1 • _. — 7 1930 : 4 1 • 1 •TT- . St 6 1931 : 4 1 1 1 ^ — •-.- 1 ---' 8 193.2 s ' 3 9 1 2 — '- 3/. 1 ' 1 17 193.3 : 9 11 ' • 2 • 2 --■•5 it. 2 1 - — 28 1934 '. 16 22 ' • 2 4 r 1 2 5 ^_- 52 1935 s 38 68 ' ■ 9 • 5 --- 1 5 . " 14' 140 1936 : 95 110* •26 ■ 7 3 . 12 '. ^-6 299 1937 : 219 156 33 ■11 --r ■5 . 20 174 ; 619 1938 : % 330 167" 32 - 11 K 13 30 375' 3/ 958 1939 : 449 191' ' 60 ■ 15 --.- K 5 51 30,9 M 1,082 1940 : 1/ 575 225 50 6/ y 4 81 300 1 1,237 1941 : , ___ _ --' ... — i- ._- 12^ ___ ' 1,480 1942 : 2/ 880 330' .' 45 •128 - — St 87 15.3 ; 400 2 2,026 19.43 -: - — 16.2 --.- T944 -•■■•: .---""' '-.-- ■-- 16.9 — "? l/ In view of the comparatively small amount data or rroduction nrovide a reasorebly • s?tis sumption. 2/ Probably excludes some unreport 500,000 pounds. 4/ Austria included in. Germs ard Poland included in Germany. f_/ Austria, Greece, Netherlands, Norway, Folard, and Ruma Compiled from ^ayon Orgranon , Textile Economic before figures were rounded. of trade in'faVDn, the a v ove factory, indication of - mill con- ed production. 3/ Less than ny. 5/ Austria, Czechoslovakia , Belgium ", Czechoslovakia, France, nia included in Germany. s Bureau. Totals were made - 20 - La 2.- Co+tor, rpyon, and all apparel fibers: Total and ver oei cor sumption, and percertape compar-i-sors , United States, 19C9-43 Yenr Cott on Ra von All firrarel p sbersiy Cotton as per- centage ef total 'on ps per- y ! Total . Per capita ■ Total Per cenita ; Total : Per capita ■ centage of totp.l Villi on Million Millie* pounds Pounds pounds Founds rounds Pounds Fercert Percent 190$ ! 2,196.9 24.03 2,574.8 28.20 *5.3 1910 : 2,160.1 23.19 ___ _-— 2/73.7 26.58 87,3 --- 1911 : 2/77.9 26.19 2.1 .02 2,770.7 29.31 89.4 .1 1912 : 8,664.7 27.68 2.9 .03 2,999.6 31.19 88.8 .1 1913 ! 2,699.7 27.50 4.0 .04 2,992.1 30.50 90.2 .1 1914 : 2,715.8 27.20 5.2 .05 3,046.4 30.53 39.1 .2 1915 i 3,094.3 30.56 6r6 .07 3/85.2 34.45 88.8 .2 1916 : 3,271.7 31.86 6.6 .or 3, r 96.5 36.02 8^.5 .2 1917 i 3,155.4 30.35 P.p .07- 3,568.3 34.36 : 88.4 .2 1918 : 2,780.7 26.61 6.0 .06 3,260.9 31.13 85.5 .2 1919 : 3,096.8 29.29 9.3 .09 3,500.3 33.13 ' P«.5 .3 1920 : 2,370.1 22.05 8.7 .08 2,745.1 25.56 86.3 .3 1921 : •2,818.6 25.79 19.8 .18 3,24 2.4 29 .6? 86.9 .6 1922 : 3,199.5 2P.P2 24.7 .22 3,700.8 33.36 86.6 .7 1923 • 2,709.6 23.97 32.6 .29 3,241.5 28.72 83.6 1.0 1924 s 2,960.0 25.75 '2.2 .37 3,412.6 29.71 86.7 l.s 1925 i 3,084.8 26.45 58.3 .50 3,581.6 30.7/. 86.1 1.6 1926 • : 3,482.1 29.45 60.6 .52 3,97R.5 33.68 87.5 1.5 1927 : 3,313.2 27.66 100.1 .84 3,863.8 32.28 85.7 2.6 1928 : 3,434 .4 28.35 100.5 .83 3, 96*. 9 32.78 86.5 2.5 1929 i . 2,975.8 2' .30 , 133.4 1.10 3,588.1 29.33 82.9 3.7 193C 2,549.5 20.50 118.8 .96 3,027.7 24.37 84.2 3.9 1931 I : 2,393.2 19.11 159.0 1.27 2,957.9 23.63 80.9 5.4 1932 ' 3,003.7 23.8 5 155.3 1.24 3,471.8 27.58 86.5 4.5 1933 : 2,809.6 22.16 217.3 1.72 3,424.6 27.03 P2.0 6.3 1934 • 2,608.9 20.44 196.9 1.55 3,106.8 24.37 P4.0 6.3 1935 ' . 3,102.1 a< .14 25?. 2.02 3,P63.6 30.09 P0.3 6.7 1936 : 3,883.8 30.0'- 322.1 2.50 4,693.2 36.31 82.'8 6.9 1937 . 2,855.2 21.93 304 . 7 2.35 3,619.1 27.82 70. 9 1938 : 3,372.1 25.69 329. 2.52 ,04 6. 2 30.65 83.3 8.1 1939 : 3,337.9 29.01 45 Q .7 3.' ° ' ,762.6 36.03 80.6 9.e 1940 : ,761.9 35.67 ^8 2.0 3.63 5,710.9 42.82 P3.4 1941 : 5,^86.6 40.^0 591.7 4.4l 6,7-2.9 50.21 Bl.l c .7 194 2 : 5,4 92.8 40.24 620.6 4.58 6,74 8.0 .50 81.4 9.2 . 19*3 : 4,905.1 35 . 47 656.1 .78 6,195.8 .88 79.1 ice \J Bata are on a calendar- year b-s^s for p11 p.rnsrel fibers excent cotton, which i s on a crop-ye-°.r basis. 2/ Include cotton, rayon, vool, silk, fnd flax. - 21 •• Table 3.- Cotton pnd rayon: Actual prices of. yarn and ecu iva lent prices of raw fiber, United States, 1920-44 Yes r begin- ning An rust . " Actus? 1 prices per round 'EqTiivnlert nrices " o^. usable fibe - per lb; ,3/ -. Ratios : Ravon ' : rvarn ' to : : cotton : : ya rr : Rayon fi>>er to' Fid. 15/16" '• . Ravon : • Ravon : :f ilamert, : . vg rT ,- 1/ . Cotton yarn 2/, Certs Ravon : staple p) fiber i/: Certs Cotton 5/ iddling : S. Mw' 15/16": 1-1/16" Certs Cents : fiber :to S.V, : 1-1/16" Dollars' .1920 : 2.92 •S/ 40 7.30 1921 2.79 53 5.23 .1222; :. 2.80 64 4.41 ■ If 23 : 2.4 2 63 - 3.8 7 • .192/) .: 2.C5 56 , 3.67 ■ .1925 .' i 2.02 54 , 3.76 ' 1926 1.52 47 3.22 -1927 ■ ! 1*50 51 £/ 63.00 2.94-. '1928 ' i 1.40 51 63.00 22.87 25.84 2.75 2.76 2*44 1929 ■ ■ 1 * 1 . 14 49 63.00 19.81 22.53 2.35 3.20 2.79 ; 1930 ! .84 39 63.00 12.57 14.80 2.16 5.01 4.26 •1931 : .72 29 54,60 ■7.89 . 9.75 2.45 6.92 5.60 . 1932 ' s .58 29 *2.00 -8.94 10.48 1*98 4.70 4.01 •1933 s .63 47 3*. 85 13.50 15.40 1*34 2.88 2.52 1934 ! .57 V 42 •35,70 15.50 17.27 1.35 2.30 2.07 . •1935 : .57 40 . 34.65 14 .8 2 16.50 1.42 2.34 2.10 . •1936 i .60 42 . 29,40 16.40 18.53 1*42 1*79 1.59 1937 '. .57 34 26.25 11.65 13.27 1.70 2.25 1.98 ■ 1938 : .51 30 26.25 11.34 12.75 1*68 2.31 2.06. 1939 s .53 35- 26, °5 12.66 13.68 1.52 2.07 1.92 • 1940 : .53 39 ' 26.25 13.71 15.34 1.36 1.91 1.71' 1941 : : .55 50 26.25 22.33 25.01 1.10 1.18 3U05 1942 : .55 5? 26.25 . 24 . 55 27.45 1.0 7 1.07 • . .96 • 194 3 i 1944 i/: .55 5 2 25.20 25.07 27.97 1.07 1.01 . ,90 .55 55 26 . 25 26.10 2R.66 1.00 1.01 .'92 \J Viscose, first auality yarn, 150 derier. fj Single 40 T s carded. jy At Carolina H ill v points , preliminary. 4/ Viscose, 1-1/2 denier. Assuines ret waste multiplier of 1.05. 5_/ Assumes net waste multiplier of 1.15. • 6/ Average of 7 months. 'Tj Average of 9 months. 8/ Average for Ausrust to November. > - 22 - Table 4.- Cotton, American: World consumption, by countries and areas, 1920-43 Year — r :Great: : Other: bepin- United: Ger-. Italy :Brit-: France :%issia Other Japan China :India :coun-: Total mrg .Stat es : many : ain : Europe :t*-ies: August . 1 : : • • 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,600 1,000 1,000 1,0C0 1,000 1,00C bales bales bales bales bales bales bales bales bales bales bales bbles y 1/ 1/ 1/ y 1/ 1/ V V 1/ 1/ _\J 1920 I l 4,677 K M 1,651 2/ 2/ 3/2,952 V V 4/ 98« 10,268 1921 : 5,613 *-> 2 , 2,010 2 ^ & i/,3,498 V 1/ its 1,< 12,209 1922 6,325 2 , 2 , 1,637 2/ 2/ ZJfi , 38 2 ^3,251 I/4 , 177 lA ,'13 i/ i/ £/ 1,105 12,449 1923 5,353 2/ V 1,531 2 , V 6 V K 7P2 10,5 17 1924 • . 5,917 2/ 2/ 2,208 .2/ 2/ V V V 1,009 13,311 1925 6,176 2 ^ 2 , 1,995 2/ 1 V 7 / V 1,'26 14,010 1926 ■ 6,880 if 2/ 1,947 y 2/ -2/4 ,939 4/ 1/ y 1,982 15,748 1927 . 6,535 1,310 725 1,942 851 50 ^ 1,961 1,078 268 151 24 9 15,576 1928 . 6,778 1,020 • 741 1,936 8 20 389 1,737 1,198 304 33 270 15,226 1929 1 5,803 94 7 • 681 1,390 74 6 290 1,563 1,095 292 ie 204 13,021 1930 : 5,084 748 495 944 738 80 1,379 962 362 60 204 11,056 1931 : 4,744 906 58 7 1,323 599 1,4 64 1,623 883 190 209 12,528 l^8;542 19-'' 1 11,170 1/ V 1,750 2/ 2/ 1/3,660 800 1,075 3,^50 3,251 25, '56 19' 2 : 11,100 1/ 2/ 1,500 2/ 1/ 3/3,675 V 6/ ^ 8,615 2', 890 19' 3 : 9,9^3 y '/ $/ 1/ |/ 6/ y 1/ 1/ £/ 23,779 1/ American cotton in running: bales. Foreign cotton in bales of ' 7* pounds net. 2/ Included in "Other furore," deta for r 1 ndi visual countries not evaila^le. 3/ Includes nil of ^or ^ine^tal Furone, <^ + a for individual countries not available, 4/ Ircluded in "Oth^r countries." 5/ Includes Austria end Czechoslovakia. p/ v f- cvpiloble. Comoiled fror^ reports of the Few YorV Cotton Fxch^nfe Service and esti-rtes of the United States Dera rtm-'-nt of Agriculture. 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