,1 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE ^~Ck/ Bureau of Agricultural Economics afiMV' tf-K * ■4 1 I / ^ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ti&cUt •♦*♦♦ U.S. DEPOSITORY' A Revision of the Report Prepared in May 1945 by Land Settlement Work Group of the Interbureau Committee on Postwar Agricultural Programs Washington, D. C. Revised September 1946 WHY THIS PUBLICATION? Our country faces a huge problem today in the readjustment being made by veterans and war workers as they return to agriculture and other industries. It is an old problem. It has arisen before after wars and during depressions. In such periods many people go into farming — sometimes with unfavorable results to the families concerned and to the community at large. After World War I many veterans went on farms with high hopes, but had difficulties in getting established. Their experience suggests that it is wise now to take stock of the outlook for farming, the farm opportunities and problems that are ahead, and the policies that can be helpful. To stimulate discussion and public understanding of the problems connected with postwar farm settlement, the Bureau of Agricultural Economics issues this revision of a summary report entitled, "Farm Opportunities? Prospects, Problems, and Policies," released 'May 1945. CONTENTS What people are asking about farm opportunities 1 Who and how many want farms ? 1 What limits farm opportunities? 4 Outlook for farm opportunities 7 Long-term new-land development 15 Farm settlement experience 16 i FARM OPPORTUNITIES Prospects - Problems - Policies WHAT PEOPLE ARE ASKING ABOUT FARM OPPORTUNITIES Anyone who is interested in the subject of farming opportunities wants to know, as accurately as possible, several things concerning the out- look for farming during the next 5 to 10 years. First, who and how many want farms or farm work? Second, what is the outlook for farms and farming? Third, what are present public policies in regard to farm settlement? And fourth, what private and public action is available now to assist the individuals and communities who will be concerned? These questions are important because the largest movement of people from farms in the United States ever recorded in so short a time occurred during the 5 years 1940 to 1945. More than 1,800,000 farm people went into the Armed Forces and there was an additional migration into cities and other communities away from the farms of nearly 5,000,000 civilians of all ages and both sexes. What these people and others do now that the war has ended is of real concern to farmers, industrial workers, and the Government. WHO AND HOW MANY WANT FARMS? No definite figure on the number who want farms in the next few years can be given. But the Department of Agriculture has been studying the probable demand for farms and farm work that is likely to come with full peacetime conditions, and has some information on the subject. It has estimates as to probable demand for farms as well as the probable size of the groups from which the demand will mainly come. A Million Veterans Back on Farm Jobs The return of veterans to farms is not something that may happen in the future — a large part of it already has taken place. Available information in July 1946 on the number of veterans returning to farms shows that roughly over 1,000,000 were actually farming at the time, in addition to returned industrial workers. Of the veterans farming in 1946, 700,000 were farm operators or members of farm operators 1 families, and 300,000 hired workers. Veterans made up 9 percent of all persons employed on the Nation's farms. The number of veterans working on farms totaled about two-thirds as many men as had left farm work for the Armed Services during the war. In the Northeast and on the Pacific Coast, the number of veterans returning to farms was larger than the number who entered the Armed Services. In some other sections the proportion was two-thirds to three-fourths or less. - 2 - Some farm veterans have taken other work temporarily with plans later to go to farming when land, buildings, and equipment can be obtained more readily. Inquiries and other information received by the Department of Agriculture during 1945 and 1946 show that veterans are finding difficulties in locating suitable farms and farm equipment at prices they can afford to pay. Some report they are unable to obtain even enough second-hand machinery but are holding on expecting to find what they need later from farm sales and new stock being made. Ten Percent of Veterans Interested in Farming An indication of the interest by servicemen in farming as an occupation was given by a sample survey in the Army in 1944, This survey forecast the return to farms of 10 percent of the veterans. After considering the survey data for soldiers expressing an interest in farming, the number of men who served in all branches of the Armed Services up to July 1946, and the proportions from farms, the best estimate of the number of servicemen who plan to seek farms and farm employment in the first few years after the war is from 1,100,000 to 1,200,000. Thus there may be 200,000 additional veterans from those now in service returning to farms in the next few years. Again quoting from the survey, it showed that about 8 percent of those interviewed had definite plans for full-time farming. An additional 2 percent thought they might farm full time, but were somewhat uncertain about farming if they had prospects for other jobs. Another 6 percent expressed interest in part-time farming. Thus, 16 percent of the men in the sample indicated some interest in farming. But the replies showed that only about one man in 10 would leave the Army definitely expecting to farm. Further conclusions as to veterans going into farming may be drawn from the fact that two-thirds of the men interviewed in the Army in 1944 who had definite plans to farm full time had been farming just before they were inducted. And practically all who expressed interest in full-time farming had had at least a year or more of full-time farming experience. Nearly two-thirds of the men who planned definitely to farm said at the time of the survey in 1944 that they had in mind the particular farm they expected to operate or work on — that is, they reported either that they owned a farm or planned to return to the family farm, or knew of a farm they expected to buy or rent. Another third reported they would have to look for a farm or a farm job. It is significant that the majority of the men interested in farming wanted to become farm operators, Only 5 percent said they expected to work for wages, and 3 percent had no definite plan as to a farm job. The Army survey in 1944 indicated that as many as 300,000 men who definitely planned to farm did not have specific locations or farms in mind and would look for farms to operate, or farm jobs. Many others returning to the family farm or who said they knew of a farm to rent or buy may need to seek farms or farm employment. This will be particularly true of those returning to small, inadequate - 3 - family farms, to tenant farms, or to farms on which conditions have changed. Altogether, probably as many as half of the veterans who are interested in farming, or a total of 500,000 to 600,000, eventually will need to rent or buy farms in the next few years if they are to become farm operators. Some Former Fanners Are Returning to Farms In addition to the veterans who are returning to farms now that the war is over, and who may still return, some part of the nearly 5,000,000 people who went into industry or into villages and towns are going back to farming. The number who return, of course, depends upon the avail- ability of work in the cities and on farms, as well as upon the plans of some for fanning as an occupation. In all, about 3,000,000 workers in war industries were laid off at least temporarily in the first few months after the close of the war with Japan in August 1945. The Bureau of Labor Statistics in a study of 2,000 former war plant workers 6 months after V-J Day, found that only 3 percent were working on farms, although 13 percent had engaged in farming before the war. Of the war industry workers less than half returned to places where they were living before going into war work. Reports on some groups of former war workers for later dates in the spring of 1946, for example, show in some cases that as many as 10 per- cent had returned to farms. A larger part of the immediate migration to farms incident to industrial reconversion appears to be finished, provided peacetime nonfarm jobs stay plentiful. Very little definite information is available on the number of men from farms in nonfarm vrork who actually wish to return to farms. It is known, however, that significant numbers of urban workers have bought land, especially in areas near industrial centers. Some industrial workers in several parts of the country have bought land, including land in poor and cut-over areas. It is known, also, that in some instances industrial workers have gone back to their home farm communities since the war ended. Thus, it is likely that a considerable number of urban workers plan eventually to return to farms in case other jobs are not available. Indications are that many also are thinking of part-time farming and rural residences while keeping off -farm jobs. Half of Farm Youth Likely to Remain on Farms Farm families of the Nation have long produced more children than could find good jobs in agriculture. During every year since 1920, with the exception of 1932, the net population movement has been from farms to towns and cities. For several years nearly half of the farm youth have sought nonfarm work. Many farm youth have moved from the farms to urban areas j many others took off-the-farm work while continuing to live on farms; and still others did part-time farming with some nonfarm work. - 4 - In 1940, only three out of five young men who reached maturity while on the farms were needed to replace older men in the farm population who died or retired. In spite of the heavy loss of young men from farms because of the war, in 1944 there were still enough boys and young men, 15 to 24, if they all stayed on farms, to replace all of the older men who will die or retire during the succeeding 10 years. Many Farmers Need Better Farms Many farmers are working farms on which they cannot make a living from farming alone because the soil is too poor or the farms are too small or too poorly located, or they lack necessary improvements and equip- ment to make them productive. Of the approximately 6,000,000 farms reported in the 1940 Census, not more than half were sending substantial quantities of produce to the market. The top 2,000,000 farms marketed 84 percent of all farm products sold, the middle 2,000,000 about 13 per- cent, while the bottom 2,000,000 sold only 3 percent. These figures changed somewhat during the war, but it is safe to say in 1946 that nearly half of the farmers do not have a chance to apply their labor productively on their farms and to live well from farm income. WHAT KEMITS FARM OPPORTUNITIES? In the past the land was looked to by many people as a haven for those who couldn't find jobs in cities. While there will still be many chances to farm or work on farms in the future, there are, nevertheless, more limitations now. Present Farms Can Produce About All the Markets Will Take At no previous time in this country was the number of workers on farms so small compared with the number at work off the farms, yet never was so much food produced as during the war years* Agricultural production for the country as a whole was about one-third greater in 1944 than the average for the period 1935-39, and more than 50 percent greater than the average for 1910-14. Technical improvements now under way indicate that farm labor will become increasingly pro- ductive in the future and possibly at a more rapid rate. This would reduce the need for additions to the agricultural working force and the farm acreage. With the expanded use of labor-saving machinery, a farm, to be economic in size, must be larger than the former average. This reduces the total number of farms. A trend in this direction has been noticeable for a - 5 - long time, and has speeded up in recent years. Moreover, with the use of improved technology, the crop production that is likely to be needed in the reasonably near future can be obtained from about the same acreage now in cultivation. Farmers "Will Become More Efficient and Produce More Farmers will probably continue to improve their farming, using more fertilizer, more and better machinery, improved seeds and livestock. This will make their fanning more efficient so that it will be possible to increase production within the next few years by 10 percent or more over our best previous farm year. This would be equivalent to adding about 30,000,000 acres of land at the present rate of production. Then if tractors continue to replace horses and mules at about the present rate, another 10 to 15 million acres of land that have been used to feed these workstock will be available for other crops by 1950. To this must be added the 5,000,000 acres that might be developed by 1950 through irrigation, drainage, and land clearing. That would make the equivalent of an additional 50,000,000 acres that will be available for crops. In all, by 1950, important changes may increase agricultural output from 35 to 45 percent above the 1935-39 average. Increased Efficiency Will Have Some Offsets Some of the production on these acres will be partially offset. There will be unfavorable weather in some years and much land now in culti- vation should be diverted to pasture, summer fallow, and other less intensive uses. Maintenance of the soil will require a shift to more grass and legume crops. Some land areas that are not very good for cultivation may be changed into grazing or forestry, or may be abandoned for farming. In all, probably 40,000,000 acres of poor cropland should be shifted, in the course of several years, to less intensive uses. In addition, some farm land will be absorbed by growth of cities, residential and industrial areas, and by such vital public uses as water supply and watershed protective areas, parks, irrigation, power and flood control reservoirs, and airfields. But, in general, the land we shall have for crop production will probably be more than enough to produce all the food and fiber that our postwar markets can buy and pay for through the usual means. Expansion Is Limited by the Markets Expansion in farm output in the next few years will be limited by the size of the market outlets. Increasing population and better diets will enlarge the farmers* market, but for many products farmers will be dependent upon industrial and export outlets. Without such outlets, farm income will contract. This means that successful new agricultural - 6 - development requires that there be (1) maintenance of large-scale nonfarm employment and purchasing power, with better diets and clothing among many groups, both rural and urban ; (2) increase in industrial use of farm products; and (3) larger permanent export outlets. In other words, to be successful in the business sense, new agricultural development and expansion should follow or be concurrent with industrial development, rather than precede it. Long-range planning in agriculture should continue, with the gradual construction of such development projects as are justified to stabilize and improve agriculture. Planning and construction of irrigation, drain- age, and flood-control works and complete land development in extensive projects normally require several years, often 20 or more. Therefore, development of such projects should be looked upon not only in the light of present agricultural competition, but also in terms of the long-time social and economic conditions in the areas where the projects would be located and the effect of such development upon the country at large. A basic principle for sound land development is that it be socially and economically desirable. Among the conditions under which it may be justified are the following: (1) provision of supplemental water or drainage to stabilize and improve agriculture in farm areas which should remain permanently in agriculture; (2) encouragement of production of certain fruits, vegetables, pasture, and feed crops that may be needed; and (3) development of new and old land that may be necessary for farmers who wish to continue farming but who have been displaced by construction of public projects or by the retirement of submarginal land, and including those for whom there is no room in overcrowded small- farm areas. Price of Land Is High Land values have now risen more than three-fourths above what they were, on the average, during 1935-39, and almost to the inflationary level of 1920. It now looks as though they may go still higher. The price of land greatly concerns veterans and others who want to get established in farming. If a man contracts to pay too much for a farm, it will be difficult, if not impossible, for him to pay for it from farm receipts, and at the same time maintain it, unless sacrifices are made in the way the family lives. Fany veterans who lack capital but who have had farm experience are likely to find that renting a good farm is preferable to buying as long as land prices are abnormally high. If limited funds are invested in essential farm machinery and livestock, they will give a better return than if tied up in land at inflated prices. Prices of livestock, equipment, and farm supplies are also high. Purchases, after World War I, for large-scale - 7 - farming at prices above their earning value left thousands of farmers and veterans in serious financial difficulties for many years. That disastrous experience of farm foreclosures, deterioration of land and improvements, and inadequate farm living is well known, and well remembered. Emphatically, it should not be repeated after World War II • OUTLOOK FOR FARM OPPORTUNITIES Agriculture offers favorable openings on existing farms for many young people who have been in the Armed Services if they are qualified by experience and training to farm and if they know that they like farm life* But beyond this there are not satisfactory opportunities for an extensive back-to-the-farm movement. This is so because there are now about as many farms and farmers in agriculture as are needed to produce the agricultural products that are likely to be purchased through normal trade channels in the next few years. It is well to keep in mind that not all veterans who have farm back- ground and not all young farm people who want farms will be ready for them in the next two or three years, although demands for farms during this period just after the war are likely to be heavier than usual. Many young people are returning to school, and others are taking jobs as hired men, or obtaining work elsewhere temporarily to save money for getting started in farming or other purposes. The demand for farms will no doubt be distributed over several years. The opportunities for the next few years may be adequate to meet the demand of experienced young farmers and farm workers. The outlook regarding these opportunities is described below. About 800.000 Farm Operator Openings in Next Five Years Renting or buying farms from present owners in established communities is the best way for veterans to become farm operators. This method provides the most openings, too. Every year a good many farms change hands through voluntary sale or lease. Nearly 30 percent of the farms are rented and operated by full tenants. In the last 3 years, about 300,000 farms and farm tracts per year were transferred through voluntary sale. Many of these farms were bought by tenants and other farmers and thus did not give new farmers a chance. Many farmers have reached an advanced age and wish to retire and rent or sell their farms. Through retirement, death, and change to other work by older farmers in the next 5 years, a total of approximately 800,000 farms, or 160,000 farms per year, will become available for sale or rent. But many of these farms are too small or too poor in their present condition to pro- vide a full-time farmer with an adequate living. Further, many farmers and others are competing for these farm openings, thus reducing the number available for veterans and farm youth. - 8 - Sources of Farm Operator Openings An indication of the number of farms that will be for sale by retiring farmers and others may be gained from the data collected by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics on farm land transfers. The number of sales has increased 50 percent in the last 5 years. Approximately 300,000 farms and tracts of farm land, or about 6 percent of the farms in the country, were estimated to have changed hands by voluntary sale each year from 1943 to 1945, Of the total sales per year for the last 3 years, about one-half, or 150,000, were by owner operators and one-half by nonoperators. Retirement from farming because of age, change to another occupation, ill health, or other causes, were reported as reasons for selling by slightly less than one-third of the farmer sellers. The remaining farmer sellers, or two-thirds, expected to continue farming. The largest group of the farmer sellers, some with nonfarm income, will operate reduced holdings, but many apparently are buying other farms. Sales by farm operators who planned to continue farming by buying or renting other farms would not afford opportunities to new operators. However, those selling enough of their farm holdings to make a new farm, and not planning to buy other land, would offer possibilities for prospective farmers to acquire farms. Of the 150,000 farm sales per year by nonoperating owners, that is, owners who were renting their farms out to tenants who were operating them, about one-third were sales by retired farmers, one-fourth by corporations, and one-fifth each by estates and individual nonfarraers. The farm sales by nonoperating individuals, retired farmers, and corporations would offer some opportunities for new people to become farm owners, but they would not afford places for additional farmers where fully operated by tenants, unless the farms could be subdivided into two or more farms. In the case of estates, there are some openings for new operators, but the majority of such vacancies usually are taken over by members of the family or by tenants. Thus, the farming opportunities for new operators from the sale of farms arise chiefly through sales by (1) farmers retiring, (2) farmers changing to other occupations, (3) sales of vacant farms and large hold- ings subdivided into two or more farms, and (4) sales of family-operated estates where the operator discontinues farming. Thus, from the total of 300,000 farm sales per year, it is estimated that the net number of opportunities for new farmers to buy farms is probably not more than 60,000 a year. In addition to the opportunities for new operators to buy farms, a con- siderable number of farms are transferred without sale each year to new operators by inheritance and gift. These new operators usually are relatives of the former owners. Vacancies for new farm operators also are left by retirements, changes to other jobs, and deaths among tenants. - 9 - Altogether the total farm-operator vacancies (both owner and tenant) from retirements probably are 50,000 to 60,000, changes to other occupations, 40,000, and deaths, 70,000, with a total average of about 160,000 to 170,000 a year, or a farmer replacement rate of 3 percent a year. Estimates of farmer vacancies are based on information from land- market and ownership surveys, farm population and labor studies, and vital statistics. Although openings for new farm operators are estimated at approximately 160,000 annually, these vacancies will not create the volume of farms for rent or sale that might be assumed, because nearly half of them probably will be low-income farms which had a total value of production of less than $600 in 1939. Moreover, farmer retirements on the half of farms that had incomes of $600 and over in 1939 do not match the excess of farmers 1 sons who reach maturity over deaths of active operators, so they cannot be relied upon to offer opportunities to many persons not now on farms, who are not heirs of farmers or persons who are financially interested in farms. Many of these farms need improvement to fit them for new and younger operators. The farms with incomes of less than $600 especially would not be satisfactory for full-time farms unless greatly improved. Some of these farms would need additional land or consolidation with another small farm to make them adequate for a family. Many inadequate farms could be improved and so provide better farms for both present and new farmers. Surveys indicate that improvement of small farms is feasible in many cases. One or a combination of measures would be needed, such as clearing suitable land, draining productive wet land, irrigating dry land, adding more acreage, and adopting such good practices as liming, fertilizing, seeding, and improving pastures. Possibilities are great for improving present farms. Perhaps 10.000 Farms From Military Lands A potential source of farms may be found on surplus military land that is suitable for farming. If all the military land bought from private owners since 1940, which is suitable for farming, were declared surplus and were redeveloped into family-sized economic units, it is estimated that about 8,000 to 10,000 farms and ranches could be made available in the next few years. Settlement lands and individual farm tracts now under liquidation by the Farmers' Home Administration (formerly the Farm Security Administration) likewise can provide some farms for veterans. The surplus military land disposal program is now under way. Surplus military lands classified as available for sale to private individuals are disposed of under a system of priorities provided for in the Surplus Property Act. Priority is given to former owners, tenants, and veterans, in the order named. Data released by the Federal Farm Mortgage Corporation, which has the responsibility of disposing of surplus military land - 10 - classified as farm and forest land, reveals that up to June 25, 1946, about 460,000 acres of surplus military land had been assigned tc it. Of this total it had sold 64,018 acres. Slightly over half the acre- age sold -went to former owners, about one-sixth to veterans, one-sixth to other priority groups such as tenants of former owners, individuals intending to become owner operators, State and local governments, and nonprofit institutions, and the remaining one-sixth to nonpriority groups. In all, about 1-1/2 million acres had been declared surplus but not yet taken over by the disposal agencies. The portion of this land classified as agricultural will be available for sale to former owners, veterans, and others. These lands, of course, do not include any of the public lands transferred temporarily to the War and Navy Departments during the war. The War Department is leasing to farmers most of the open land not cur- rently used for military purposes pending its further use or disposition. In 1944, nearly 350,000 acres were leased to fanners and in 1946' it is close to a half million acres. Public Land Considered In general, the public land that is easily adapted to farming in all the States has been settled. What remains must await irrigation, drainage, clearing, or other development. Public land is available in Alaska, but opportunities for expansion of successful farming are qualified by climatic conditions and are greatly limited at present by lack of markets and roads. Moreover, most of this land is in undeveloped areas and must be cleared and improved and farm buildings and community facilities erected before farming is possible. Production of staple crops and livestock products in Alaska for sale in the States is not feasible now, either because they cannot be produced as successfully, or they cannot compete in costs with those grown in the States. There- fore, profitable farm production is restricted chiefly to perishable products such as certain fresh vegetables and fruits, and to poultry and dairy products, and meats for local consumption. Farm improvement, maintenance and operating costs are high, especially the cost of farm equipment, hardware for buildings, and hired labor. As other industries expand — mining, forestry, and fishing — with an accompanying increase in permanent year-round workers and population within the Territory, and additional rural roads and other public facilities are constructed, opportunities for successful farm develop- ment will increase. In 1939, there were 623 farms in Alaska, including fur farms. There has been some increase since 1939, but any considerable expansion must be preceded or accompanied by an increase in population to provide markets. With expansion and stabilization of industries - 11 along permanent lines, many seasonal and migratory industrial workers in Alaska probably will want small places for residential use and part-time farming. 40.000 New Farms From Undeveloped Land Another potential source of new farms is by irrigation and drainage of land in public and private ownership by means of projects now under construction or authorized for construction. The Columbia Basin, Central Valley of California, and other areas in the "Western States are among them. Some new farms can be developed also by draining and clearing suitable land in the Central, Southern, and Eastern States, Some of this land is in organized drainage and flood-control districts and already has some public facilities. Other limited areas in the Lake States, the Southern Coastal Plain, and the Pacific Northwest are suitable for development by clearing alone. If construction of such facilities as reservoirs, ditches, and roads is completed and funds are provided for farm development, from 40,000 to 50,000 new farms could be created in the next 5 years. Construction of new drainage and irrigation facilities and repair and maintenance of those now in use also will mean the improvement of many farms which are now inadequate units. Stabilizing the farms and agricultural enter- prises that are already in existence should be of primary concern in any immediate farm-land development. These estimates of sources from which farms may come are not forecasts and they are not recommendations. They merely represent feasible possibilities. They do not indicate what farmers and others who are interested in going into farming will do. It appears reasonable, however, that farm-land development and improvement will be continued during the next few years where suitable land, equipment, materials, and labor are available and public facilities have been installed or authorized and public funds have been appropriated for construction of necessary improvements. If so, land settlement will again require public measures to guide it along sound lines. If, however, serious shortages continue in building materials and labor, or construction of necessary public works is deferred, then new farm development also will be delayed. Before additional new-farm development projects are undertaken, it is important to consider carefully whether the costs are justified, either by the need for crops or by the farmers 1 prospects of earnings and family living. Any development of new-land projects immediately will probably occur in a period of high costs, whereas the crops may come later in a period of lower prices* This will mean that the repay- ment of costs of construction and land improvement will be difficult unless it is spread over many years. Often projects that are developed to meet only temporary needs for land reach the production stage when the products are no longer needed. - 12 - It might be better to make existing farms more productive by providing better drainage 'and more certain water supplies, and by improving farm practices. Part-time Farms The outlook for part-time farming combined with a job off the farm appears to be promising in many areas where steady industrial or other nonfarm work is at hand. Thousands of families in the past several years have lived on small farms near industrial centers. To their wages from industrial work they can add some income by a little farming and gardening. More factories may be located in small towns. Then if there are good means of transportation and if suitable land is avail- able in nearby rural areas there can be more part-time farms. Many veterans who prefer rural life may find that it will be well to have another job while living on a small farm that will provide healthful surroundings, part of the family living in food or fuel, and perhaps some additional income. Usually when the heads of families have full- time jobs off the farm it is not practicable for them to produce much more than the garden vegetables, dairy products, fruit, pork, poultry, and eggs used at home. The amount of farm income that can be obtained from part-tine fanning depends upon the amount of farming that is done — that is, the labor, land, and capital goods that are put into the effort — and the costs of farming and the prices the farmer gets for his products. These are much the same things as affect the income of full-time farmers. If some members of the family can spend considerable time working the farm or if the head of the family has only part-time outside work, there can be a sizable farm production and income if the land is suit- able and he has the necessary equipment. Nevertheless, a good source of employment off the farm with its wages or salary is necessary if the part-time farmer is to have an adequate income for his family. Farms Will Need 1/2 to 5/4 Million Nonoperator Workers In addition to 850,000 farm operator jobs, there probably will be a half to three-fourths of a million hired and unpaid family worker jobs in agriculture for returning veterans and others in the next few years. These will be needed as women, youths, and even children who worked on farms during the war return to their normal ways. Because these temporary workers can generally do rather less than a young man, the number of such people leaving farm work will be greater than the number replacing them. In the year prior to July 1946, it appears that veterans replaced over 300,000 other farm workers, many of whom were not able to do heavy farm work. In many cases a returning son is doing the work done during the war b} the women and children of the family. In other cases a man has been hired. These jobs include some - 13 - for skilled operators and repair men to work on farm machinery; some to repair and construct farm buildings, fences, and make other improve- ments j and some to enable elderly farmers to ease their war pace. Placement of Farm Laborers A farm-labor placement service is in operation by the Agricultural Extension Service, Through it, war veterans who want work on farms are being referred to placement opportunities. By arrangement with Selective Service, each returning veteran who wants farm work is referred by his local Selective Service Board to the county agricultural agent for placement. During the spring of 1945, about 1,000 veterans were placed as farm workers each month. In the last half of 1945 and the winter and spring of 1946, an average of over 5,000 veterans per month were placed in farm jobs. In May 1946, over 9,000 men were placed and in June, 13,500, Most of these placements were in jobs of a long-time nature. Information about farm-work opportunities can be obtained from county agricultural agents and the State farm labor placement supervisors for specific areas in which persons may be interested. Probably Million and a Half Farmer and Farm Jobs Available In all, probably as many as 1-1/4 to 1-1/2 million farmer and other farm-worker jobs will be available in the first 5 years after the war. These openings will come, about through retirement, death, or physical incapacity of about 600,000 elderly farmers, change to other jobs of 200,000 farmers, the sale of surplus military land, some new farm development, and replacement of 500,000 to 750,000 women, children, and others working on farms during the war years. Comparing Demand for Farms and Farm Jobs with the Supply The eventual demand for farms in the next few years very likely will be materially greater than the supply of good available farms. This is a normal situation. Indications are that there will be a demand in the next 5 years or so for many more farmer jobs than for farm-laborer jobs. On the supply side, the reverse situation is likely. That is, there probably will be more jobs for farm laborers the first years after the war than there will be chances for full-time farmers. However, the total demand for farm employment of both classes, operator and non- operator, and the total supply of men who want to engage in farming, either as operators or nonoperators, appear to be closer together. Estimates that have been made of the number of farms that will become available to new operators during the first 5 years after the war are as follows j - 14 - (1) Farms becoming available because of deaths and men reaching retirement age 600, 000 (2) Farms becoming available because owner-operators and tenants change to other jobs 200,000 (3) Military land suitable for farming if declared surplus and divided into adequate family-sized farms 10,000 (4) New farms which are likely to be developed from land in development projects already constructed, undertaken, or approved 40.000 Total farms 850,000 In all, these estimates indicate that during the first 5 years or so after the war, around 800,000 to 900,000 farms, including farms that are now too small to be economic for full-time farming, will be avail- able for new operators. Many farm boys will reach maturity in this period and an unknown number of war workers will return to farming. Then it has been estimated, based on the Army survey, that over 1,000,000 veterans will be seeking farms to operate on a full-time basis and possibly 500,000 or more will want part-time farms. This does not mean that there are not many farm openings for veterans. Nearly two-thirds of the veterans who reported that they wished to farm had farms in mind to which to return, -while one -third reported they would have to look for a farm or a farm job. Many fathers have already arranged, or are planning for their boys to take over or to have jobs on the home places; and veterans have as good, if not better, chances than many others, because of Government loans, to get the farms that are offered for sale. In addition to farm-operator jobs, it is estimated that there will be job openings for approximately 500,000 to 750,000 farm workers, as women, children, and elderly workers leave farm jobs in the next few years. The Army survey in 1944 indicated that relatively few veterans (perhaps around 100,000) wanted jobs as farm hired men. But because of the keen competition for farms, some veterans who hoped to become farm operators are accepting jobs as hired workers for a time in order to find suit- able farm openings. Then some veterans, of course, wish to work for a year or two as hired men before they take on the expenses and responsi- bilities of running farms for themselves. Surveys made in the spring of 1946 have shown that 300,000, or nearly 30 percent of TTorld "Sar II veterans who are working on farms are employed as hired workers. -15 - LONG-TERM JEW-LAND DEVELOPMENT Considerable land-development work has already been started or authorized; more has been planned or proposed -which, if undertaken, eventually will improve land for many inadequate farms and for an additional 75,000 to 100,000 family-sized farms. This work involves drainage, clearing, flood control, and irrigation systems. Fifteen to twenty years or more may be required to get this job done. Funds, materials, equipment, and labor will be needed to complete these public works as well as for roads, schools, and farm improvements. Over a similar length of time, some undeveloped and not fully occupied land in existing large farms and undeveloped tracts in farm areas suit- able for clearing, draining, or irrigating could be developed as these properties come up for sale or rent. The acreage so improved for farming, if made available in family-sized units, probably would pro- vide about 50,000 farms in addition to enlargement of many small farms. There are some other long-time new-farm possibilities. But their development should be planned to occur along with future needs for farm products and to provide openings for farmers who are now on inadequate units and in poor farming areas. Future new farm acreage possibilities just about equal the areas of poor farm land which should be changed from cultivated cropland to more extensive uses such as forestry and grazing. Part of the future new-farm development, especially that involving drainage and clearing, now is primarily a matter for local organizations and for individual initiative and enterprise, as there is no special Government development program at present. However, public agricultural programs, such as the soil and water conservation and agricultural adjustment programs, provide some technical assistance and equipment and in a few instances limited financial aid for land drainage and clearing. In some river basins in the Mississippi Valley and Western States, rather extensive farm and nonfarm delta areas will be drained, or drainage improved, by work which the Army Engineers are now under- taking in construction and improvement of stream channels. By 1947, it is probable that a considerable number of new farming ventures may be undertaken in these delta areas. Many existing farms also will be improved by the drainage and flood-control work in progress and approved for early action. The amount and the time of future new-land develop- ment by public programs will depend on public policy, public funds, and credit to aid in financing the costs. - 16 - FARM SETTIEMENT -EXPERIENCE Factors Which Make for Success This country has wide experience from which to draw in guiding those going into farming. The factors which make for success are well known — selection of productive land, buying at a price which can be paid from earnings, adequate financing, experience and aptitude of the farmer for the occupation, and undertaking enterprises that are adapted to the locality. Unless the location is favorable, the land productive, the enterprise large enough, and the purchase price fair, there is not sufficient opportunity for the farmer to make a good living. To pay more than the normal income will warrant is likely to lead to financial difficulty before the place is finally paid for. Thousands of new farmers who were heavily in debt failed during the farm depression that followed World War I, It is well to be wary of contracting heavy debt when the general price level is high and talk of inflation fills the air. It is possible to obtain rather extensive credit for buying a farm. But there is no real substitute for one's own savings for investment in a farm. Borrowed money has to be repaid, with interest. Such payments sometimes are impossible if there is a crop failure, illness, or some other unforeseen difficulty. Successful farming today demands considerable technical knowledge as well as certain indispensable skills in the handling of machinery, livestock, and crops. There is no substitute for experience. If a man knows little about farming he should take a job for a time on a good farm before he tries to run one as an owner. Some newcomers cherish the opinion that they can make more money by doing something that has not been tried in the community. Sometimes — rather rarely — this may work out. In some areas shifts in production are necessary to conform to market demands and to maintain the soil. But it is well to remember that the prevalent general type of farming in a given community has become such after long years of trial and adaptation. Most successful farmers are following the neighborhood pattern — only they contrive to do it a little better than the average. Farm work requires health. It is almost as essential that the house- wife, too, be reasonably well and strong, A considerable part of the work in the fields, and barns, and indoors involves manual labor. Unless the owner can stand a fair amount of such work it will be difficult for him to make a financial success of farming. Those who are physically handicapped will ordinarily fare much better in light jobs around a farm or a suburban place, or in urban employment, where there are jobs suited to all kinds of personal capabilities. From the standpoint of agencies that are concerned with the settlement of veterans or others on farms, some of the other prominent factors - 17 - of success may be cited for considerations Lending money at reasonable interest and with small or deferred principal payments while the farmer is getting started, or in years of depression; requiring that settlers have experience, aptitude, or adequate health ; giving sufficient assistance to new settlers in matters of purchase, land improvement, credit, selection of equipment and livestock, and with management and marketing problems; settling of individuals on farms available for purchase or rent in old regions instead of colony settlement (because of public services and overhead costs already provided), and placing new land colonies near markets, in areas with good roads and other facilities, or providing necessary community developments for successful farming and farm life* Emphasis on Family-Sized Farms Most of our farm-settlement policies of recent years have grown up around the idea of developing and encouraging family-sized farms — farms that would provide the family with an adequate income. Throughout many of the public land, homestead, and settlement programs of the last century runs that central thread of public desire for a wide distribution of ownership and operation of family-sized farms. Examples are in the 160-acre homestead provisions of the Act of 1862 and other similar acreage limitations, depending on the character of the land, laid down during the last several decades. The Federal Reclamation program, inaugurated by Congress in 1902, continued the policy of the 160-acre family homestead, by provision of water to new land acreage only up to 160 acres in the hands of one owner. This policy has been stated over again by successive Congressional action. Other governmental farm programs have had provisions aimed to encourage family-sized farms. Examples are the limitations on amount of farm loans under the acts governing the Tenant Farm Purchase and the Farm Credit programs, and the provision for farm loans in the recently enacted Servicemen's Readjustment Act. The conservation payments, and the marketing and acreage quotas provided in the past under the Agricultural Adjustment program, likewise accorded recognition to small farms. Several States have discouraged large concentrations of land, especially in the hands of corporations, through certain legislation and by tax exemptions on small homestead farms. As the policy of encouraging widespread ownership of family-sized farms by their operators is generally accepted among nearly all groups of people as being in the public interest, it should remain an important land policy. Any retreat from that general principle of encouragement of family-sized farms would undoubtedly be looked upon as a move directly against the welfare of the mass of farmers and of the Nation. Strengthening of the policies dealing with the family-sized farm, encouragement of ownership and improvement of a large proportion of the farms by farm operators, and improvement of landlord-tenant and farm-laborer relationships are directly related to the job of providing good farm opportunities. UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 3 1262 08921 4851