LIBRARY OF THE UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS AT URBANA-CHAMPAIGN 510.84 I£G3c no. I- 10 AUG 51976 The person charging this material is re- sponsible for its return to the library from which it was withdrawn on or before the Latest Date stamped below. Theft, mutilation, and underlining of books are reasons for disciplinary action and may result in dismissal from the University. UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS LIBRARY AT URBANA-CHAMPAIGN L161 — 0-10% Digitized by the Internet Archive in 2012 with funding from University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign http://archive.org/details/progressreportonOObezd UNIVERSIT ENGINEERING LIBRARY UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS URBANA,JlUHOiS OIS AT URBANA-CHAMPAIGN ANA, ILLINOIS 61801 CAC Document No. 7 ECONOMIC RESEARCH GROUP WORKING PAPER NO. 1 Progress Report on the Development of a Large-Scale Conditional Consistent Economic and Manpower Forecasting Model By: Roger H. Bezdek CAC Document No. 7 ECONOMIC RESEARCH GROUP WORKING PAPER NO. 1 Progress Report on the Development of a Large-Scale Conditional Consistent Economic and Manpower Forecasting Model By Roger H. Bezdek Center for Advanced Computation University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Urbana, Illinois 6l801 July 27, 1971 This work was supported in part by the Advanced Research Projects Agency of the Department of Defense and was monitored by the U.S. Army Research Office-Durham under Contract No. DAHCOU 72-C-0001. fflfgmfOTHS owtMS ABSTRACT This paper summarizes the progress in the development of a large- ale economic and manpower impact model at the Center for Advanced Computation of July 1971. The first two sections of this report provide the rationale r the model and give a nontechnical description of the methodology and rkings of the general system. The third section of this report indicates 3 type of computerized system which is presently (summer 1971 ) on-line and ailable for use in the study of pressing economic and social problems. The jrth section tells of improvements in the model being undertaken and outlines 5 plans for the development of an expanded system in the near future. Appendices :lude several tables specifying the economic categories contained in the lei, a list of references where additional information pertaining to this lei may be obtained, and a mathematical statement of the model. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page introduction 1 Tie Workings of the Model 1 he On-Line Empirical System k 'ending Improvements in the Model 7 eferences 27 ppendix 28 LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Table 2 Table 3 Page Economic Activity Categories H Industry Numbering for Recent Input-Output Studies by the U.S. Office of Business Economics 15 Occupational Manpower Categories 19 INTRODUCTION Certain effects upon the economy and the labor market are likely to be generated by expenditures upon different types of economic programs and activities reflecting alternate national priorities. Knowledge of these effects is critically required for a variety of purposes. This type of information can prove invaluable in relation to a number of problem areas including economic and manpower policy formulation, manpower forecasting, the development of adequate educational and vocational training programs, the analysis of requirements for critical occupations, and assessment of the feasibility and potential for reordering national priorities to emphasize different goals and objectives. A large-scale computerized economic model capable of accurately and consistently generating this type of information in great detail is presently being developed at the Center for Advanced Computation at the University of Illinois under the supervision of Roger Bezdek and Hugh Folk. The purpose of this report is threefold: 1) to familiarize the reader with the basic methodology and workings of this model; 2) to indicate the stage of development of the model at the present time and the type of empirical system presently on-line; and 3) to [indicate the extensions of the model presently being developed and planned. i THE WORKINGS OF THE MODEL Theoretically the model is entirely straightforward and is based Ion economic input-output analysis. A brief mathematical statement of the model has been included as an appendix to this report; here the workings of the model shall be explained in less rigorous terms. Economic input-output analysis is essentially an empirical simplification of general equilibrium theory and, subject to a number of restrictions, is capable of yielding a large amount of data relating to the workings of the economy. The economic model developed here represents an extension of the open input-output model in several directions. Holding the structure of the economy and labor market constant it generates detailed economic and manpower effects from alternate distributions of national expenditures reflecting different goals and priorities. As illustrated in Figure 1, the generating mechanism of the model operates in the following sequence: 1) The goals, priorities, and objectives to be simulated and analyzed are specified in advance. The model is general and is capable of handling a wide range of different types of priority and economic program reorientations. The precise set of economic, social, and political programs analyzed may be developed by the researcher, administrate:, or government decision maker utilizing the model. 2) This hypothetical program-priority decision is next translated into expenditures upon distinct types of public and private economic activities. The model accounts for all public and private expenditures, but the programs of the Federal and the state and local governments are singled out for special attention. -2- i< 3) Each individual economic activity has unique requirements for the jtput of different industries, and the sum of all these output requirements comprise ie direct output requirements associated with a specific set of national riorities and program expenditures. 4) Due to the need which industries have for the outputs of other idustries as inputs to themselves the total output requirements from any single idustry will be considerably larger than those created directly, and the ital output of the economy is the sum of the direct and the indirect output jquirements from every industry. The direct output requirements are felt [mediately and are usually concentrated in certain industries; the indirect ltput requirements take longer to be felt and are present in all industries. 5) Assuming that employment requirements in every industry are roportional to output requirements, each distinct level of industrial output ;quirements generates an associated level of employment within that industry, ice again, both direct and indirect requirements for employment are generated Lthin each industry. 6) Finally, occupational employment demands are generated according ) the industrial distribution of occupational employment. Several different types i; ' occupational manpower information can be generated: the total employment iquirements generated directly and indirectly for each occupation, the I ■ ,:cupational requirements generated within any specific industry, the cupational requirements generated by any specific industry, and the structure interindustry employment demands generated for a particular occupation. Operationally there are three basic components comprising the model: ' activity-industry matrix, an interindustry-employment matrix, and an -3- II * industry-occupation matrix. The activity-industry matrix translates expenditrei on economic programs and activities into direct industrial output requirement Its columns index economic activities and its rows index industries. Readings a column of this matrix indicates how expenditures on a particular economic pa or activity are distributed as direct output requirements from different indut Reading across a row of this matrix shows how the direct requirements for outu from a specific industry are generated by expenditures on different programs activities. The interindustry-employment matrix transforms direct industrial output requirements into direct and indirect interindustry employment demand Reading down a column of this matrix shows how activity in a specific industr generates employment requirements within all industries. Reading across a ro , this matrix illustrates the manner in which employment within an individual iii is generated by activity in all industries. The industry-occupation matrix translates total interindustry employment into occupational manpower requirem Its rows index industries and its columns index occupations. Reading across i of this matrix shows the occupational distribution of employment within a spelt'.' industry. Reading down a column of this matrix illustrates the industrial < distribution of employment within an individual occupation. THE ON-LINE EMPIRICAL SYSTEM Several preliminary versions of the overall model have already beert developed and these are presently on-line at the Center for Advanced Computation. t Though preliminary, these models were painstakingly constructed, tested, debugged, and perfected and are currently capable of quickly and efficiently generating a large quantity of useful information in a level of accuracy and detail not obtainable elsewhere. -4- Basic models have been developed for 1960 and for the years 1972- 1976. The base year for these models is 1958; that is, the models stated enter espenditures on economic programs and activities in terms of (constant) 1958 dollars. The dimensions of the matrix components of the models and the level of detail of the estimates generated vary according to the target year specified and the specific purpose for which the model is being used. Input vectors for approximately 80 distinct types of economic programs and activities are presently available for use in the model. These programs and activities account for total gross national product, or national expenditures, and thus include all the components of GNP : personal consumption expenditures, exports and imports, investment, and government expenditures. Since changing priorities or program emphasis very often involves the activities of the Federal, state, and local governments, a special effort has been made to include as many distinct functional government program categories as possible in the model. The model is thus presently capable ?f analyzing expenditures on a wide range of different types of public programs such as different types of defense activities, educational programs, civilian safety and criminal justic programs, social welfare payments, research and ievelopment activities, ecological and environmental programs, health programs, and so forth. A complete listing of the economic activities presently contained in the model is given in Table 1; in addition 70 other types )f activities relating to detailed construction and personal consumption -5- . categories are readily available for simulation and analysis if the user so desires. Several different activity input vectors pertaining to years in the period 1958-1976 are available for most of the categories listed in Table 1. The 80-order industry classification scheme used by the U.S. Office of Business Economics in their recent input-output studies is the basic one relied upon in the model, and these industries are listed in Table 2. Several of the industries in Table 2 have been modified so as to be consistent with tt industry conventions adhered to in the other components of the model and several unique industry groups have been added. In addition, data in 367 and 478 industry detail is available for the analysis of special problems requiri greater industrial disaggregation than is provided by the 80-order classif icatan scheme. Occupational manpower requirements are generated for 185 occupational categories, and these are listed in Table 3. Data pertaining to more detailec census occupation categories are also available for use in the model for consideration of special problems. > The model itself is both comprehensive and consistent. It is comprehensive and accounts in an integrated and efficient manner for total grcs national product, total gross and net industrial output, total industrial employment, and total occupational employment. There is no overlapping or double counting contained in the activity categories or the industrial or occupational employment categories. The model is also consistent and the methodology followed and the control data used insure that the estimates generated are internally consistent and realistic and do not get out of hand. -6- ~_ The model in the format and detail discussed above is presently ivailable for use in the analysis of a wide range of problems relating to nanpower forecasting and analysis, economic planning, feasibility and sensitivity analysis, educational and vocational planning, and national jriority reodering. Although developed very recently the models discussed lere have already found widespread use and application. For example, the L960 system was used to test hypothesis that the manpower requirements )f the United States are sensitive to shifting national priorities, and it ilso used to classify occupations on the basis of their sensitivity to specific types of priority reorderings. The model relating to the mid-1970 's ras used to simulate in detail the economic and manpower effects which rould be generated by the Urban Coalition's suggested radical reorderings of national priorities and Federal budget outlays. Further, this approach has ilso been used to develop broad guidelines for long-range university planning >n a regional level. While these examples do suggest the widespread applicability )f the models developed here they do not begin to exhaust the possibilities )f these models and additional applied research is presently underway to idopt this approach to the study of other problem areas. PENDING IMPROVEMENTS IN THE MODEL Extensions and improvements of the existing models are currently iroceeding simultaneously in a number of areas. But while the model will .ontinuously be in a state of being improved, expanded, and perfected, a basic lodel utilizing the most contemporary data and techniques will always -7- be on-line for use in the study and analysis of pressing social and economic problems. In this sense, then, the system is very much "user oriented". One major and important type of extension of the model which is presently under way is the more accurate updating and projection of it and th< addition of more detail to each of its components. The model pertaining to the mid-1970' s is in the process of being revised, re-evaluated, and retested, and work on other models relating to the early. 1980' s is also beginning. Aside from this, additional detail relating to economic activities and industrial and occupational manpower categories is being integrated into || various components of the existing models. For instance, major attention is being devoted to the activity- industry matrix so that more functional economii programs of the Federal and state and local governments can be included efficiently for analysis. Also, the tie-in between the industry specification of the interindustry-employment matrix and those of the industry-occupation matrix is being revised and perfected. Work is also progressing on the introduction of supply consideration and constraints into the model. Essentially this requires the development of methods of projecting the supply of manpower likely to be available within each occupational category in the specified target year by using data on the J present occupational manpower supply, rates of attrition for each occupation, and rates of transition among and within occupational groups. With the development of the supply side of the model the manpower demands generated by the model on the basis of a certain set of ssumptions for a particular year c : i be compared with the manpower supply likely to exist in that year. This Duld allow determination of the feasibility of the policy in question and )uld also pinpoint those categories likely to become bottlenecks if the /pothetical policy was actually adopted. Coefficient sensitivity and error variance analyses are also presently ;ing conducted. These studies are serving a dual purpose: identification : the sensitive and critical coefficients within each component of the model jrves to indicate the formal mathematical and theoretical properties of the )del and the accuracy of the estimates generated, and these analyses also irve to indicate those subcomponents of the model at which the data requirements :e the most critical. Finally, regionalization of the model is scheduled to begin shortly, lis improvement will allow the disaggregation of the national economic and mpower effects generated into effects generated within different regions : the nation and this, in turn, shall aid greatly in the formulation of jgional economic, manpower, and educational policies. The empirical system is presently set up on a Burroughs 6500 jquential digital computer. Early next year the model will be transferred ) the ILLIAC IV parallel computer. This transfer will greatly enhance the tta input and analytic capabilities of the system and will also make feasible 1 almost unlimited number and type of computations and matrix operations lvolving the model. In addition ILLIAC IV will be tied into a nationwide miputer net and the model will thus be able to accept inputs from any part of i le nation and also be capable of delivering outputs nationwide. -9- FIGURE 1 Schematic Representation of the Manpower Demand Generating Mechanism of the Model Specified Priority Consensus ■> Allocation of Resources > Direct Industry Output Requirements o 4-1 s~~ - a • G • •u o 4-1 « cu •H ex CT> 00 4J a\ r-4 CT> CTi o> •v CO ■H r. rH 0> O • CM \0 00 CO CO 4-1 vO CTN LO 4-J CTi 00 O •■ •* vO • *> A co en « 0- CM u~l LO rH 4-> vt •— \ cu CO a\ •h a) r-4 r-H O rH r-4 • Cv| CO r o Tj o O 4-J •s CM d o *» • •* r» CX M3 « 4-1 co cj " • CM ■u ^^ tx G • CN r-4 CM O en m CM « CM cr> • 4-1 o TJ 4-J —4 co r-» r-4 rH "si" 4-1 *■ CM CM m CJ P y OJ (X o O rH CM rH a. LO CM CM CM X o 1 w 4-1 CCj ^ ^ ^ ^ r-4 „ rH rH r» n r-l n „ ^ d J-l w r— t en rH O rH CM CM CM m a u rH 4-4 •d G CO •w d •a j^ ex CJ 1— 1 •H U d G •H «) 4-J G O 4-> ex CJ J-l >> CI) i-J G co 4-1 •H 00 d J-l S-4 J-i co- J-J 4-J ,Cl i—l CJ r d 4J G 60 d cu 4-J d X X en 4-1 rd o CO O -a •H G rH cr G CO >> co CJ cu d •H co J4 4-J d G B >H d •H G -d 4-1 T3 4-J ■H ex, O -d CO C J-l •d a O CO r> •% G '4-1 d O CO •H d G CJ to 4-) CO •d CO H >, rM -d u *■ CU e 4-J CJ >H CU O CJ 60 CU 4-1 5-1 •xi "a o ex >> J-l d cu J-l ■H d •r4 4-J O XJ G o j-i J-4 CO G 60 N •H r-l T3 J4 CU d d CO G 4J a >, 4-1 CU G ■H d O O co ,Q 1— 1 ■d 3 CO u CO >> J-l -d •H r-4 ex CO J-4 CU d •H •H O ■d « CU r-4 a) CU G G ■H CU CO a J-l 4-4 4-J J-4 J-4 g >^ ^> CO ,c J-l I— 1 d • H 4-1 j-i cu d X 42 ex •H J-l •r4 J-l co O rH 1— 1 B J-l G -d 4-1 £ d d 4-1 r-l d ■r-l 4-4 CO d B cu O r d cu 4-J 4-1 -d TJ CO JJ 4-4 O 4-J d >< 4-1 ■ H C d J-4 d 54 c cU -d rH f\ J-l CU CJ d 4-1 d TJ CW J4 CO co d J-i G d T3 rH J-4 B rH rH 11 O 'd G d d d d ? CJ CJ G CD cu bt) O O c d CU G .H G G !-' 4-4 •r-l CvJ J-i 4-1 CO C S-l d j-i a d rtf d CJ d Td OJ ^ J-4 d d •H 4-1 ^d 4-1 G ■ ■ G -0 G G G X> r» CJ 00 >. 4-J CO •d r^ CJ G rH • • :0 d 60 cu T3 G "3 d d E r-l O OJ J-4 rH CU C S-4 •H p- d d c G G G G O d rH rH rH 3 d 44 4-J d CJ CJ J-4 B O CJ ■ H G d rH CU rH j-i G J-l co r-4 CO CJ ■r-l cu OJ G 4-1 — 1 T) G B 4-1 C d G TJ d d CJ CC) .a ;> 4-J > »-G J-l J-l J-l O G rt d O cu s >H 4-1 'd rO O CO ex CO B J-4 rH ■H "4-J O 00 d •• J-4 O j-i 4-J rC 3 CJ d O u O J-i ■H ex •H d 4.J y ..JJ O Fn << CO 60 r-l jv; CJ C/j a J-i « 4-J i-i •H 00 13 CM CU ■u r^ o m on • • r-\ ■u ^ cu CO cfl eu c X) •r4 O e o r-4 3 ON r-l 00 u LO ^O Cfl CM H CM CM en , , <]■ m LO v£> vD r-- 00 00 00 CO tf CM CM CM CN IN CM CM CM CM CM ON CM CO m CO co vt co CO CO CO CO 00 CM CO On ft •» On /~\ r- co >> CM CO r-l CO CO •> CO vO On -t CM CM CO -) CO CO CO CO CO CM LO CM CM CM CO CO CO CO CM ON ON , c •r-l CO CO CU o CU 4-1 CJ S-i QJ CO 4-1 C ■r-l bO CJ 4-1 QJ E 4J O O rJ 13 u C 3 QJ c CU C 3 •r-l 4-1 O 01 •■-1 S-i •i-4 •i-l o 13 4J co r-l rC bO u 4-1 ft rC 3 4-1 o O rJ cO 3 T3 CU 4-J CO co 4-1 C •■-I cs CO CO 4-1 o CO cr G QJ QJ 4-1 CU CO C co QJ CJ rJ CJ 13 3 E E cu CO CU •H o r-l 3 cO QJ 3 i3 a QJ CO r-l r-l GJ •r-l 13 4-1 4-4 4-1 CO X) C t4 U CD CO CO U 13 4J rH O CJ 3 cO ft 4J r-4 co 3 0) X X U •r-l CU QJ CO CO u cO C a CO CJ CU KT r-l co 0) o •r-l S-I 4-J CO •H CU cw cO •H 4-1 3 4-1 •1-1 >-, QJ 4-J cu rO E 0) 4-J CO r-l !-( 3 E S-i i—l 13 G 4-1 S-i •i-4 r-l ft 0) 4-J a co r— 1 a 4-1 u C rQ o O CJ QJ T3 ■M 3 CO 13 X. cO r-l 4J a) CO QJ CO CO CO Jj S-i E r-l C G 4-J 4-1 a o E ■I-l o r-l co 3 £1 CO E i—i 4-1 CU CU •r4 •r-l CO >^ X o cO bO o 3 a T) 4J 4J co CO ft •r4 O rG U •H 3 G 13 CJ 4-1 13 TJ o C CO o ■P r-l 4-J 13 CO ■—1 cj to 4-J 4-t 13 CO •r4 CJ •r4 O C QJ •H 0) 3 CJ QJ CU C 4-1 CO cr ft CO S-i co O r-l rG 4-J 4-) 13 5-1 cO C i—l T3 3 QJ E cO CJ 4-) co QJ bO E Q) 2 CU -d r-l CD CO CJ QJ c CU cO ID O 13 4-J 3 CO QJ cu C a T3 J-l G a, c ■r-! QJ x: CO M r-l c u H O CO CO •• 13 bO E c 13 •H M) -r4 G CO 3 cfl ■r-l r-l r-l 4-1 13 c r-l cO QJ CU rJ 2 bO O C ■i-4 C c C -C ■H U 4-1 13 CO ,Q OJ c ft QJ •1-1 QJ rC! CU 13 O CO C S-i •r4 13 -Q CO •i-4 ■r-l O CD •r4 QJ qj 4J 3 CO >, to •r-l c CJ bO 4J CO c S-i S-i •r-l cu CU 0) r-l E r-4 Cfl X) G G S-I •H c PU CO c rH •H CO C co >N CO U QJ rQ co S ±J 2 >N 13 6 c •r-l S-i 3 r-l o 'd •r-4 ~l 4-4 •r4 •r-l CO CO QJ C E 4-1 QJ CO cO 4J V-l ft 4-J G ctj cfl 3 •u r— 1 o T) G u c cO QJ E c 13 r-l r-l c 4-1 •1-4 3 CJ c •U CJ QJ c c cfl bO 4-J 4-1 •r4 cO P co C cO S-1 c c bO o o C cO i—i 3 •r4 CO •i-4 TJ C o CJ J3 G u G G 13 cO CO CJ -a 13 cO CO 1-1 O 4-J Cu 13 w C, rl c •r-l •i-4 E •H CJ o 13 S-I r O co rJ CO 1—1 c E C 4J 13 13 •r-t CJ c o O i—i JD CO rC 4J Cu CO J4 rQ u t—l 3 c CU CO bO r— 1 CO u cd 3 cO )-i G C o ft S-4 cO CO CO o CJ •r4 r-4 r4 E O "4-1 cO X o C CO CJ QJ }-i CO cO CO t>N >N CJ bO Cu E ■u 4-1 CO CO 3 3 cO 3 G X o rO ■r4 u •l-l ft CO r-l S-I ai QJ S-i rJ C CJ QJ E S-i cr •H ^ c CD a> r-l S-< ,a rJ 4-J •r-l 4-) CO 4J O 0) £l r> l-> co OJ CO CO 1—1 •r4 r-l [5 E S-i C 4-1 CU S-I r-4 13 CO 0) CD cu C E CO 00 C rJ rO 4J 4-J CO C E E CO 4J CO QJ CJ ■r-1 E CO QJ (0 >-, O 3 jG CO. T3 ex •r4 OJ cti -J •r4 4J rQ cO o CO O •r-l •r-l 4-J Cfl J-J S-i 13 £ bO S-i G 13 4J 4J )-l o O u CO G cfl J-4 rC I—l S-i CO a 3 QJ o I— 1 4J S-J S-I OJ QJ CJ U C 4-J C CO o a CO O 4-J CO G ■a G D£ trl O CM CO P-4 Pk U FM Q Pn P-i Pd r-l Fn O C/J CU P-< IS W E C/J CO O W P*4 O cO a'< "fU t— i CM CO CO c-» on v — ' ri s_x T—l IT) v£> v£> o r^- r~~ r-> CO 00 ON o 00 00 ON O OJ c4 co cO CO CO CO ro CO co CO ro OO co ro ro co CO co -< ex to G ■r-l U 4J 0) QJ ex 3 •r4 G cr •• co ■r4 G E c G. cr G •r4 QJ CO •r4 > a) ex ■ r J c CO 4J a) CJ 1 r-l co > r-l E -H .rj o c w QJ r-l o 00 QJ Q) ex s u •r4 r— 1 aj C 0) O •r4 r-4 CO •r-4 D" Cl) 4-1 CO E ■H »• r-4 -G *« a) 3 CD Ei p •r-l Ci. •H >-( >» 4-1 ex o 4-J >> cr Xi r-l •r4 4J O r-l G CO •l-l J-l QJ T3 to •r4 4-J P CO CO a O 54 r-l TJ G g P! !-i C/J O" c> CO G CJ 00 4-1 c 4-1 ■G co •1-4 4-' 3 cu •H ai •r-l 4J o u 00 cO •r4 QJ G 4-1 CO 13 a o si C Tl 4-1 QJ G C r— 1 CO ^ c •r-l c 60 r D o CJ 4J cu G o r-4 •r4 o G ■U u 3 -o •T-4 C E cO cO G E cO -C 00 QJ CO •r-l CO •r-l >-. a> o •r4 E E QJ ex ex G G TJ QJ 4-1 P G CJ CO •d r-4 rJ o -a E •r-l «■* •r4 ^ O CO 00 TJ 'Xj QJ -r-l CJ cj e: CO ■r4 o c r-l a P CJ w TJ r-l G G r-l G C G >, c rG cd ei cO u 3 CO CO •r-l cr 1 •,-( cu G G O OJ •H G )-i !-i .,-) O •,•4 •r-l •"0 CJ 3 Ql 4-1 •i-4 co 44 •r4 r4 4-J 4-1 • n 4-J -U rG co CO x< .CJ c r-l U3 G CO •r4 cr •r-l r-4 U 4J CO ex CO ~ QJ CO O E 4J Cj o o 4-) CO G CO 4J }-i OJ G 4-1 ex »> CO G & QJ CO 'r-l X) r-l G G a CO CO •r4 U 0) cO G 4-1 O G a o U-l CJ U CJ 0) G •r4 TJ e -i P e CO QJ CJ ** ai CJ T3 co •r4 QJ G •r4 G •r4 TJ r< TJ 4-1 r-l cd G CO T3 60 CO r-l C 00 G G QJ G 4-1 4J • r-l CO E C G G 0) G G 4-1 4-J •r-( >,-H O c: >> •r4 a; ro G O o r-^ cO U CO CJ r-4 CO G CO O £S 0) U 5-4 rJ • r4 !>■^ c ■r-l ■r4 •r4 ex OJ cO 4J CO T) CO E E •> 5-4 r-4 r-l Tj' 4-1 4-J a, 4-' 4.1 CO -d r-l JJ CO E CO ex S-I G r\ E C co rQ »• •r-4 c CO CO r> CO r^ a P. rC •r4 o CO QJ n CO 4-1 CO O O G CO G xs G 3 3 ex, f-< ;-j CO c-J Cu to > CJ P CO r-4 'G ex r-4 rG co G CJ co •r-l O Ojj l> G 4-1 G ■G TJ o E "X) !-l CO •r-l 0) a QJ CJ G CO CO CO ex cy o a> 4-1 •r-l (-; H 00 G G >-< a p ^a c a 4J •> r-l r-l o QJ •r-l •r4 cO G G 4J o •r4 QJ « u « 4-J ■r4 r-l CD •H -H CO u ■r-l j-j T3 CD •i-4 r; r-4 r\ cy O G r-4 G G •i-4 4.J cO 4.1 T3 ^ a> rO 1 u ti rH 4-1 G cO ex OJ 4J r-l •r4 aj •N ex cO G > U CJ co G CJ XJ r-l E rH r-^ G) r. 0) •r4 "j O •r-l a r--l p. > U-l 4J CO E r-4 ex r-l •r4 Vw O •r4 «1 03 ■r-4 G G 3 03 CO R c; C> J-l H r; S-i r> m r-l 3 CO CO G CO G H 4-1 0) e^. G CJ r-l G co G •rJ J-, •r-l C.J •f-4 4.J Q- a; u O 4J CJ CO V-i r4 "r-l QJ r-l o CO GJ cO CO CO G- x) O 4-J cu U Q» r e: •H ^> CJ •r-l CO CJ •r~l CJ CJ o u QJ UH 4-4 •rl CJ 4-J G E CO •r4 CJ CJ r-4 >i cu r; o ct-l J.J CL' VJ 3 CJ "0 c; CO T3 i_l M rG co 4-J '0 ro r-l r^"> G E o •rl CJ i-4 o S-4 &. a B M-l e) r-4 a" q r—l CO r-t •r-l C o • r4 J.J r-l G fX G •H O V-l r-l i-J cO r-4 sii rG ■';' CO C_J "rU CJ cyj W a; W tq ^ M r<3 cO >", "^4 CJ Ph •r-4 O (0 JSi CO (0 ■u H o rCl Pi w CO Q) ''-- 3 G •r4 r-4 TJ cO G • . • • • O • G CO ON O t — i CM ro <^- in vO r-^ aj ON o r~l C-J CO -t r-l CO in vO r-. OO £", ON l-i -d- --J m m i'N m in m m no m m v£> VO VO vD vTJ H CO vD VU vX) •o r^- vO -17- X 4-1 c o o cr> o> en r- . r-l 4-1 CM ex /-n ON /— s r-4 00 ON ub CM o> ON A r- vO •« CO v£> \0 ^~N r^ 1— I 00 1—1 a\ • » vO -3 CO U *> VO LO r^ * <* VO vO qj OO •s « vO 1—1 •» <)• 4J r» UD CT\ CM VD Cu m m oo CO - ^ . o •> *N on co . .— < o v£> t— < a) cj oo 00 r-l \£> r-- CTv \£> • m vd CO " a •• r^ r^ r^ >-< X CM c^ v£5 0) r-« »• ♦» r>. ^ ^^ ■-i * i LO 00 r^ ii i i v£> VO r^ \£> r-~ i r-» r-^ O ii i i CM cfl H 4J •r-l M-l M O CO •r-l r-l 4J X a Q. U-l C a. C co •1-1 cfl OJ s-< O C QJ CO oO ■—I •r-l CO X) cfl QJ T3 S-4 m c G i—l C a. o CO O •r-4 cfl r-l •r-4 CO • • CO rQ QJ > •> X QJ J-4 co r» CO 4J S-I 4-J o CU 4-> QJ E QJ CO QJ G QJ G o ■—I cfl a o CJ QJ co QJ CO QJ bO 4-1 4J 4-J •H U •r-l E •r-l w • r. 3 > •r-l i-l 4-1 X C X 4-J 0) CO QJ cfl 4-) V-l QJ > r-l Q- S-i C QJ c cfl •r-i cfl G cfl >1 i—l O 4J C CO QJ QJ E 4J rC 5-1 cfl r-l Cfl CU CJ CO 4-J G CO S-i X >. 4-1 QJ QJ Cfl r-l CU E X) C S-4 X QJ C S-i CO (-1 CJ 4J P- CJ a C i—l QJ QJ O 4-1 O 4J G C c X o cfl cfl > O c CJ >~> CO X 13 cfl QJ bO QJ r-4 C • • 4-1 o 00 QJ QJ S-i G >^ c C 54 S-1 C CO QJ !-i O CO G 00 CO 4-1 X S-i •H cd 3 •r-l •» Q) > •r-l •i-l QJ QJ <4-4 •> CO C 4J co X) to CO U QJ Cfl 4J CO E 1—1 o r-l CO X 3 •H to X •» C c X OJ •H XI Cv. cfl •r-l G cfl QJ QJ G .. X G g QJ •r-4 cfl O a > QJ CJ CO S-I S-I CJ CO > •r-l cfl CO C X X cfl O i—l •r-l U T3 r4 3 C Cu QJ O 4-1 cfl 1—1 QJ •H r-4 C G X QJ > QJ c X) o S-4 > r-4 u CO S-i Cu X •H S-I -r-l M CO c 4-J x u CO cfl QJ CO QJ •i-l GJ o QJ 4-J Cu QJ S-i 4-1 O QJ S-i cfl cO c Q) r-4 4J 4-J 4-» oo x> a. •r-4 2 CO 4-1 c & X rQ G 4-J cfl CO CO rC •rrl C r> Cfl c C E r-l CO CO G CO QJ 1—1 E CO cu CO CO CJ rQ QJ 1—1 N QJ r-4 CO •r-l 4-1 CO 3 E C4-4 O 3 C O QJ CO U QJ r-l O e Cfl •r-l cfl CO QJ QJ •> X C O ,G C •H G •—I •r-l c Cfl E QJ CJ c 4-J u QJ CO 3 C CJ Cu C u OJ CU i — 1 ■ • QJ Cfl •H QJ O CO •r4 cfl C QJ 4-J CO X •r4 •r-4 cfl •r4 QJ 4-1 CO >, •» G cfl CO 4-J ex CO CO 4-J a X WJ QJ X Cfl .. o c CO <4-4 S-i > co G J-j cu •r-l CJ QJ o GJ 3 a) 3 E QJ S-i E QJ 4-1 CO S-i •H G "4-4 U r-l O QJ O 4-1 cj pq Pi o K r-l CQ P4 < < t*-4 O c Pj-i co 4-J o PQ o CO Cfl o Pd & co c •r-l S-i r4 >, •r-l 3 cfl > QJ o E CJ X G • • 1-1 * • • • • • > • • ex • E • • • QJ • • • C •r4 O 1—1 QJ cm CO - r*» r^ r^ o 1^. r^ H 00 Q 00 oo CO CO CO CO CO -18- TABLE 3 OCCUPATIONAL MANPOWER CATEGORIES Professional Technical , Kindred Engineers, Technical Engineers, Aeronatuical Engineers, Chemical Engineers, Civil Engineers, Electrical Engineers, Industrial Engineers, Mechanical Engineers, Metallurgy, etc. Engineers, Mining Other Engineers, Technical Natural Scientists Chemists Agricultural Scientists Biological Scientists Geologists, Geophysicists Mathematicians Physicists Other Natural Scientists Fechnicians, Except Medical, Dental Draftsmen Surveyors Air Traffic Controllers •19- Table 3 (Cont . ) Radio Operators Technicians, Other Medical, Other Health Workers Dentists Dietitians, Nutritionists Nurses, Professional Optometrists Osteopaths Pharmacists Physicians and Surgeons Psychologists Technicians, Medical, Dental Veterinarians Other Medical, Health Workers Teachers Teachers, Elementary Teachers, Secondary Teachers, College Teachers, Other Social Scientists Economists Statisticians and Actuaries Other Social Scientists -20- Table 3 (Cont.) Other Professional, Technical and Kindred Accountants and Auditors Airplane Pilots, Navigators Architects Workers in Arts, Entertainment Clergymen Designers, Except Design Draftsmen Editors and Reports Lawyers and Judges Librarians Personnel and Labor Relations Workers Photographers Social and Welfare Workers Professional, Technical, Kindred, Nee* Managers, Officials, Proprietors Conductors, Railroad Creditmen Officers, Pilots, Engineers, Ship Postmasters and Assistants Purchasing Agents Managers, Officials, Proprietors, Nee* Clerical and Kindred Workers Stenos, Typists, Secretaries Office Machine Operators -21- Table 3 (Cont.) Other Clerical, Kindred Workers Accounting Clerks Bookkeepers, Hand Bank Tellers Cashiers Mail Carriers Postal Clerks Shipping, Receiving Clerks Telephone Operators Clerical and Kindred, Nee . * Sales Workers Craftsmen, Foremen and Kindred Construction Craftsmen Carpenters Brickmasons and Tile Setters Cement, Concrete Finishers Electricians Excavating, Grading Machine Operators Painters and Paperhangers Plasterers Plumbers and Pipefitters Roofers and Slaters Structural Metalworkers -22- Table 3 (Cont.) Foremen Nee* Metalworking Crafts Except Mechanics Machinists and related Blacksmiths, Forgemen, Hammermen Boilermakers Heat Testers, Annealers Millwrights Molders, Metal, Except Coremakers Patternmakers, Metal, Wood Rollers and Roll Hands Sheet Metal Workers Toolmakers and Diemakers Printing Trades Craftsmen Compositors, Typesetters Electrotypers, Stereotypers Engravers Except Photoengravers Photengravers, Lithographers Pressmen, Plate Printers Transport and Public Utility Craftsmen Linemen and Servicemen Locomotive Engineers Locomotive Firemen Mechanics and Repairmen Airplane Mechanics and Repairmen Motor Vehicle Mechanics -23- Table 3 (Cont . ) Office Machine Mechanics Radio and TV Mechanics Railroad and Car Shop Mechanics Other Mechanics and Repairmen Craftsmen and Kindred Bakers Cabinetmakers Cranemen, Derrickmen, Hoistmen Glaziers Jewelers and Watchmakers Loom Fixers Opticians, Lens Grinders Inspectors, Log and Lumber Inspectors, Other Upholsterers Craftsmen and Kindred Nee .* Operatives and Kindred Workers Drivers and Deliverymen Drivers, Bus, Truck, Tractor Deliverymen and Routemen Transportation and Public Utility Operatives Brakemen and Switchmen, Railroad Power Station Operators Sailors and Deckhands -24- Cable 3 (Cont.) Semiskilled Metalworking Occupations Furnacemen, Smelt ermen, Pourers Heaters, Metal Welders and Flame Cutters Assemblers, Metalwork, Class A Assemblers, Metalwork, Class B Inspectors, Metalwork, Class B Machine Tool Operators, Class B Electroplaters Electroplaters Helpers Semiskilled Textile Occupations Knitters, Loopers, Toppers Spinners, Textile Weavers, Textile Sewers and Stitchers, Manufacturing Other Operatives and Kindred Asbestos, insulation workers Attendants, auto service, parking Blasters and Powd ermen Landry, Dry Cleaning Operatives Meat Cutters, Except Meat Packing Mine Operators, Laborers, Nee* Operatives and Kindred, Nee* -25- Table 3 (Cont.) Service Workers Private Household Workers Protective Service Workers Firemen Guards, Watchmen, Doorkeepers Police, Other Law Enforcement Officials Food Service Workers Bartenders Cooks, Except Private Household. Counter and Fountain Workers Waiters and Waitresses Other Service Workers Airline Stewards, Stewardesses Attendants, Hospital and Other Institutional Charwomen and Cleaners Janitors and Sextons Nurses, Practical Service Workers, Nee. * i Laborers, Except Farm and Mine Farmers and Farm Workers *Nec: Not elsewhere classified -26- REFERENCES terman, Jack. "Interindustry Employment Requirements." Monthly Labor Review , 88 (July 1965), 841-850. mon, Clopper. The American Economy to 1975 . New York: Harper and Row, 1966. zdek, Roger H. Manpower Implications of Alternate Patterns of Demand for Goods and Services . Report prepared for the Manpower Administration of the U. S. Department of Labor, 1971. . "Manpower Implications of Alternate Patterns of Demand for Goods and Services." 1970 Proceedings of the Business and Economics Section of the American Statistical Association , pp. 417-422. . "A General Theoretical Framework for Rational Manpower Planning at the National Level." Paper presented at the New York State School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Cornell University, February 1971. . Occupational Manpower Impacts of Shifting National Priorities. Center for Advanced Computation: Economic Research Group Working Paper No. 2, July, 1971. , Hugh Folk, Anthony Graziano, and George Russell. College-Educated Manpower in the State of Illinois, 1970-198Q * Report prepated for the long-range planning committee of the University of Illinois, May, 1971 • , and James G. Scoville. Manpower Implications of Reordering National Priorities . Washington, D.C.: National Urban Coalition, 1971. Ik. Hugh. The Shortage of Scientists and Engineers . Lexington, Massachusetts: D. C. Heath, 1970. . "Manpower Research Alternatives and Imperatives." Paper represented "Manpower for the Manpower Field, " a conference by the New York State School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, October 13, 1970. ldman, Morris R. , Martin L. Marimont, and Beatrice N. Vaccara. "The Interin- dustry Structure of the United States: A Report on the 1958 Input-Output Study." Survey of Current Business , hk (November 1964), 10-17 . mtief , Wassily W . The Structure of the American Economy . New York: Oxford University Press, 1951. S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Projections 1970: Interindustry Relationships. Potential Demand, Employment. Bulletin 1536. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1967. . Patterns of U.S. Economic Growth . Bulletin 1672. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1970. -27- g's APPENDIX Formal Statement of the Basic Theoretical Model Notation j: Number of industrial categories. u: number of economic activity categories. k: number of occupational employment categories. y: a j-by-1 vector giving the industrial requirements of final demand. j-by-1 vectors showing the industrial requirements of the relevant nat:t economic programs. 's: percentages of total national expenditures devoted to the correspondinj economic activities. L: a (partitioned) Leontief matrix. Z: a j-by-j matrix indicating intermediate product flows. w: a 1-by-j vector showing the values added in each industrial category, f x: a j-by-1 (total) output vector whose elements are x.. , x_,...,x.. d: a j-by-1 vector of ones. X: a j-by-1 diagonal matrix whose diagonal elements are the elements of ti vector x. A: a j-by-j matrix of input-output coefficients indicating the source and; quantity of inputs to each industrial category per specified dollar amount of output from that category. I: an identity matrix of order j. P: a j-by-u activity-industry matrix showing the industrial requirements 'j the economic activity categories. q: a u-by-1 vector indicating the distribution of national expenditures among the economic activity categories. F: a j-by-j diagonal matrix of employment-output ratios. -28- APPENDIX (Cont.) e: a j-order vector indicating the portion of final demand consumed by each exogenous activity. M: a j-by-j interindustry-employment matrix showing the total employment generated per delivery of a specified dollar amount of output to final demand . : a j-by-1 industry employment vector showing the total employment generated in every industry by a specified distribution of final demand. N: a j-by-k industry-occupation matrix giving the occupational distribution of industry employment in percentage coefficients. T : a j-by-k industry-occupation matrix showing the occupational distribution of total industrial employment. Total adjusted net national expenditure is divided among the economic activity categories in a specified manner: (1) g-L + g 2 + J u 3 U .+ g •, E y. = Z e. (E y.); E e. = 1 u „ i . 1.1. 1 liii An input-output model which represents a complete economic system is usually referred to as a Leontief model, and a convenient way of representing an input-output transaction table is by a partitioned Leontief matrix: (2) L = Z ! y — i — w » I — the zero in the lower right hand corner of the Leontief matrix is present because the non-production accounts of the system are assumed to have been consolidated. All output is accounted for by either intermediate or final demand: (3) x = Zd + y Relying on a basic assumption of input-output analysis — that inputs vary proportionately with outputs — the technical coefficient matrix, A, may be obtained by dividing the elements in each column of Z by the output total in the corresponding row of the transaction table: (4) z = zx x -29- APPENDIX (Cont.) Solving equation (4) for Z: (5) Z = AX Substituting the above result into equation (3) : (6) x = AXd + y = Ax + y With input-output coefficient matrix A and output vector x, Ax is the vector of input requirements from these outputs; and the vector of net outputs (the quantities available for disposal outside of the production seci is given by: (7) x - Ax = (I-A)x Interest centers on investigating the effects on employment demands of alternate specified lists of net outputs (final demands or bills of goods). For final demand vector y we have from equations (6) and (7) : (8) (I-A)x = y Assuming (I-A) to be nonsingular, x may be solved for directly: (9) x = (I-A) _1 y (I-A) " is the Leontief inverse matrix and from it may be obtained the di and indirect requirements per specified dollar amount of final demand. To | determine the level at which all industries must operate to produce a specifi bill of goods, y, equation (9) is solved for x. Premultiplication of the Leontief inverse by a diagonal employment-output ratio matrix yields an interindustry-employment matrix indicating the total employment generated bj and in every industry per specified dollar of delivery to final demand: (10) M = F(I-A)" 1 Postmultiplication of the interindustry-employment table by the final demand vector yields an industry employment vector showing the total employi generated in every industry by a specific bill of goods: (11) m T = My Premultiplication of the industry-occupation matrix by the diagonal indtl employment matrix yields a total industry-occupation matrix indicating the occupational distribution of industrial employment demands generated by a specified bill of goods: (12) N T = M T N •30- APPENDIX (Cont.) Finally, the final demand vector itself can be disaggregated into the product of an activity-industry matrix and an activity-expenditure vector: (13) y = Pq This last step represents a generalization of the system and permits the simulation and analysis of a large number of alternate national priority- axpenditure distributions. -31- UNCLASSIFIED Security Classification DOCUMENT CONTROL DATA R&D (Sacurlty elaaalllcatlon ol tltlm, -body ol ab* tract and Indawlng annotation ami be antared whan the overall report la clatallled) tRIGINATING ACTIVITY (Corporal* author) enter for Advanced Computation niversity of Illinois at Urbana- Champaign rbana, Illinois 6l801 2a. REPORT SECURITY CLASSIFICATION UNCLASSIFIED 2b. GROUP IEPORT TITLE CONOMIC RESEARCH GROUP WORKING PAPER NO. 1 rogress Report on the Development of a Large-scale Conditional Consistent Economic and Manpower Forecasting Model DESCRIPTIVE notes (Typa ol raport and Inelualra dataa) esearch Report kUTHOR(S) (Firm! nam*, middle Initial, taat nam*) [oger H. Bezdek IEPORT DATE uly 27, 1971 7a. TOTAL NO. OP PAGES 37 7b. NO. OP REPS CONTRACT OR GRANT NO. )AHC0l4 72-C-OOOl PROJECT NO. RPA Order 1899 fto. ORIGINATOR'S REPORT NUMBERIS) CAC Document No. 7 Ob. OTHER REPORT NO(S) (Any othar number* that may be aaalgned thla raport) DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT ;opies may be requested from the address given in (l) above SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES lone 12. SPONSORING MILI TARY ACTIVITY U.S. Army Research Office-Durham Duke Station, Durham, North Carolina ABSTRACT This paper summarizes the progress in the development of a large- cale economic and manpower impact model at the Center for Advanced Computation .s of July 1971- The first two sections of this report provide the rationale 'or the model and give a nontechnical description of the methodology and r orkings of the general system. The third section of this report indicates ■he type of computerized system which is presently (summer 1971) on-line and vailable for use in the study of pressing economic and social problems. The 'ourth section tells of improvements in the model being undertaken and outlines he plans for the development of an expanded system in the near future. Appendices .nclude several tables specifying the economic categories contained in the model, . list of references where additional information pertaining to this model lay be obtained, and a mathematical statement of the model. FORM ..1473 UNCLASSIFIED Security Classification UNCLASSIFIED Security Classification key wo ROS Social and Behaviroal Sciences (Economics) Progress Reports UNCLASSIFIED LINK C Security Classification