'm^ m THE UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS LIBRARY "EST 5 i -,■■.''!,.. "t .V,-' ."■'):■,■ -".•.■' «l;H!m y/^<-: {''-' INVESTIGATION OF THE ERRORS OF ALL WRITERS ON ANNUITIES, IN THEIR Valuation of Half-yearly and Quarterly Payments^ INCLUDING THOSE OP Sir Isaac Newton, Demoivre, Dr. Price, Mr. Morgan, Dr. Hcttow, §c. Isc. WLiti) Cables, SHOWING THE CORRECT VALUES WHEN PAYMENTS ARE MADE IN LESS PERIODS THAN YEARLY, AND A SPECIMEN OF »^ Set of Tables on a new Principle, (NOW IN THE PRESS) FOR THE VALUATION OF LEASES, ESTATES, ANNUITIES, CHURCH LIVINGS, OR ANY INCOME WHATEVER. By WILLIAM ROUSE, Autlitr of the Doctrine of' Chancis ; and lUmarkM on Freehold and Copyhold Land, AdiMisoiis, i^c. LONDON: Printed by Gye and Dalne, 39, Oracechurch-Strut, ron THE AUTHOR, PUBLISHF.n BY LACKINGTON, ALLEN, AND CO. FINSBIjKY SQUARK. AND MAY BE HAD Of ALL BOOKSELLERS. 1816. Price is. iSd. AN INVESTIGATION, XT may appear a bold assertion for an obscure individual to make, that all the mathematicians, u'ho have written OH the subject (even including Sir Isaac Newton and Demoivre), have given erroneous rules and theoretns for the valuation of half-yearly and quarterly pay- ments of annuities or incomes, whctherybr life, for yearSy or for ever. But truth is equally valuable, from whatever quarter it may How, and mathematical truths seem to have an advantage ovor all others ; for as they admit of demon- stration, Ihoy (lisirm the sceptic, and must be equally received without dispute, both by the enemy and the friend. When it is considered, that much the greater part of the income of the whole country is received in \esa periods than . yearly, it must sunly lit- of importance to have correct notions of the dillercncc in the values betweoa ijuch pay- . A 2 mcnts ments and yearly payments. If the case be applied to tli^ national debt, by supposing the interest 32 millions of pounds per annum, we shall find the following difference in the amounts, whether the same be paid yearly^ and in- creased at 4 per cent, per annum^ or paid in 4 quarterly payments of 8 millions each, and increased at 1 per cent, per quarter, being the usual mode of payment. In 25 years the difference will be 31 millions of pounds. In 50 years the difference will be 167 millions of pounds. In 100 years the difference will be 2400 millions of pounds ; — and this difference must increase ad injinitum . But, by the theorems and tables now in use, we are taught, that although there is a difference between the values of two annuities, where one is paid yearly and the other quarterly, if they are to continue 20 or 30 years, yet if the same annuities are to continue for 100 years, or for ever, there is no difference at all ! ! while, at the same lime, it is admitted as self-evident, that the amount and the value must be proportionate to each other. In tracing these errors, it is curious to observe the incon- sistency of each succeeding writer. Sir Isaac Newton and Demoivre began with a mngle error, which increases in every stage of computation, in the same proportion as the difference between the yearly and less periods than yearly amounts and values increases ; but at the value of the perpetuity perpetuity it reaches its maximum, and then it will be in the same proportion to the value of the perpetuity (if paid yearly) that the first year's error was to the first year's value (if paid yearly), as will be seen in Case I. Dr. Price and Mr. Morgan, after asserting that this is " sufficient to prove the fallacy/ of Mr. Demoivre's " method of solution,'^ actually combine this very error with another of much greater magnitude, and ground theorems (in the same way as Dr. Hutton has done) on such combination of errors, and which never can reach A MAXIM u>r. Then ]Mr. Baily, who says, " he has been par- " ticular in making these observations," having " no where " seen the facts set in their proper point of view ;" after animadverting on Dr. Price's rule, and declaring that " the present value of an annuity, payable four times a " year, must in all cases be greater than when paid only " once a year, " gives an example from his own theorem, to prove, that a perpetual income of four pounds per annum, if the inlere^t be paid yearltj, is worth £100; but if the interest be paid t/uarterlij, it is worth only £98: 10:3!!! A like inconsistency appears in a work published under the inviting title of " Sir Isaac Newton's Tables;" but whoever the author of sucli part of the Tables might be, it was cruel in him to make Sir Isaac give one rule in page 61, and forget it quite so soon as to begin a table in the very next page, computed in some diflerent manner, but how, 6 how^ we are left to discover ; yet, as the calculator has favoured us with the amount of £1 per annum, if improved half-yearly at what he calls the same rate (4 per cent, per annum) we are enabled, by comparing them with the amounts, if improved 2/ear^y, to find the difference, and which will always be proportionate to the difference of their values ; for £200, to be received at the end of any number of years, must always be of double the present value of £100, to be then received (computing at the same rate of interest. ) Now from these tables, in which the editors say, " iheij have not ^^ been able to discover a single error^'' the following Is the difference in amounts between yearly and half-yeasly pa;^ents, at (what is called) 4 per cent, per annum, with their difference of values; against which I have stated what should be the true difierence of values. niflSerence in No. of amounts of yearly Years. aud half-yearly paymeuts. £. s. d. £. «. d. £. s. d. 25 12 10 110 4 10 .50 3 9 I 4 9 9 100 49 10 4 19 7 So that, where the difference in the values should be greater, they make it less ; but what is more singular, they con- tinue their amounts to 150 years (when the difference becomes £532 ; 15 : 0, and which requires a difierence of £1:8:3 in the present value to meet it), yet they make but one step ia their values from 100 years to eternity, although Difference in True \'aliics by tliLir Difference " (the lime) " becomes infinite, or the " annuity is a perpetuity." And a note by the Editor KJalos, " The difrcrcnce, however, between the vnlues of " annuities 8 " annuities payable yearly and at shorter intervals, is " known to be continually lessening in proportion to the '^ length of the term ; till at last, when the terra is extended *' to a perpetuity, those values become the same, whether '' the payments are made yearly or momently." And Dr. Hutton, in his Mathematical Dictionary, where he gives a set of theorems for finding the respective values, and a formula for the maximum of difference^ writes thus, " The difference in the value, by making periods of '^ payments smaller, for any given term of years, is the " more as the intervals are smaller, or the periods more *' frequent. The same difference is also variable, both as *' the rate of interest varies, and also as the whole term of *' years n varies ; and, for any given rate of interest, it is '' evident that the difference for any periods m of payments, *' first increases from nothing as the term n increases, when " n is 0, to some certain finite term, or value of w, when '• the difference D is the greatest, or a maximum ; and " that afterwards, as n increases more, that difference will '' continugJly decrease to notliing again, and vanish when ii " is infinite." Now although the above remarks of Dr. Hutton are a little at variance with those of Dr. Price and Mr. Morgan, who assert, that the difference in the values is continually lessening, yet all their theorems indicate a maximum of difference in twenty-five years. That That the generality of writers on annuities (who perhaps seldom investigate rules) should copy theorems authorised by such great name>, is not surprising, but it seems extraor- dinary that a paper, from which such a palpable incon- sistency flows, should have escaped the notice of the truly learned and acute members of the Royal Society. As Zeno's celebrated Problem of Achilles and the Tortoise, with Dr. Hutton's reasoning upon it, is applicable, I here "ivc it in his own words. PROBLEM. *■' If Achilles can walk ten times as fast as a tortoise^ " V'hich is a furlong before him^ can crawl, will the " former overtake the latter ^ and hoiv far must ho " icalk hofire he does so ?" " THIS Problem has been thought worthy of notice *' merely because Zeno, the founder of tiie sect of the *' Stoics, pretended !<» prove by a sophism, that Achilles *' could never overlako the tortoise; for while Achilles " said he, is walking a furlong, the tortoise will have " advanced the tenth of a furlong ; and while the former is " walking tliat tentii, the tortoise will have advanced the *' hundredth part of a furlong, and so on in injinitum ; " cousc(iuenlly 10 ^ consequently an infinite number of instants must elapse ** before the hero can come up with the reptile, and there" ** fore he will never come up with it. *' Any person however possessed of common sense, may *' readily perceive that Achilles will soon come up with the " tortoise, since he will get before it." This is really a parallel case ; for the present value of an income to continue any length of time, is just so much money as will come up with, or amount to, the same sum that the income itself will am aunt to (both being in- creased by the same rate of interest) at the end of the term. Now, if the amount of X'lOO per annum, to continue twenty-five years (if received £25 quarterly, and improved at the rate of one per cent, or one-fourth the year's interest quarterly) exceeds the amount (when the annuity is received and improved at four per cent yearly,) by nearly 100 pounds, surely the present worth ought to be more in one case than in the other, because it has not only to come up with, or amount to, the same sum that the yearly payments do, but must exceed such sum by nearly 100 pounds ; the difference given by their Theorems, (and which is their maximum of difference in any period of time) to reach this surplus amount is £13.. 10.. 5, but this is at four per cent interest per annum (at which the purchaser's value is limited, otherwise it becomes a new question and a different rate) will not amount to more tlian ^36..1..0. 11 X'36. .1 . -0. In one hundred years, the difference of the amounts (if lYccivcd and improved in the above manner) is ujtwards of aovcn thousand^ five hundred poundft\ Avhile the diflerence in the values given by the theorems^ is only £2..1')..10, which, in the one hundred years, only amounts to .4*141, and in three hundred years the d}ffere7ice of such amounts is upwards of sixty-one MILLIONS OF POUNDS ; vct according to their theorems, ihe diffei'ence of the values now vanishes / As to a maximum in the difference of values, (when a greater part of an annuity is paid than ought to be, and this 'm continually increased in a greater ratio than the value is), such can never take place. Portions of time are fractions of eternity, and however difl'erent men's jiotions may be of that endless increase of time, yet 50, 100, or 1000 years can only be parts of such a term in all our thoughts ; and " any person possessed of common sense, **' may readily perceive," that a sum of money thus con- tinually gaining upon another, must, like Achilles, not only come up with llie tortoise who moves slower, but get before Compound interest (or interest upon interest) is grounded on a series of terms increasing in geometrical ])roportion'. If £100 be lent at the rate of four per cent, per annum, the lender at the end of thc^ tirst year w«hiI(I rrceive £104 ) and if this be lent for another year, he would receive (fit the 12 the end of the year) a sum bearing the same proportion to this £104, as the £ 104 did to the £100 first lent. Now , as £100 is to £104, so is £104 to £108. .3. .21 ; and this will be the amount of principal and interest at the end of two years, and so on. Then if £100 be lent for only ha// a year at the same rate of interest per annum, (and which all the tables and theorems imply), such a sura should be returned, at the end of the half year, as would (being in- creased in the same proportion) amount to £104 at the end of the year ; therefore, the lender ought to receive only £101.. 19.. 8; for as £100 is to £101.. 19.. 8, so is £101 . . 19. .8 to £104, and this sum it ought to be at the end of the year (and no more) according to the agreed rate of four per cent, per annum ; indeed, it seems quite as reasonable to make an allowance for the payment of any part of a year's interest before it becomes due, as to give discount for the payment of a bill before it becomes due , and although custom may be pleaded in giving 1-12**' part of a year's interest for a month, it is by no means just ; but as to questions of compound interest, it is inadmissible^ for the principal thus becomes increased at a different rate per annum. When any sum of money is to be increased in a certain ratio annually, as by 1-20*'' part, if at 5 per cent., or by 1-25*'' part, if at 4 per cent. ; such yearly ratio must be compounded of, and equal to, the sums of the half-yearly, quarterly, or monthly ratios, according as Ihe payments may 13 may be made in loss periods than yearly ; that is, if R represents tlic yearly ratio, or £1 with its interest for a year, then R- : R' : R^ - (being the square root, the fourth root, and the twelfth root of R) will respectively represent the half-yearly, quarterly, and monthly ratios, and R- : R* : R'-' will each be equal to R it^self, and which is the sum of their ratios. But this will appear plainer, by the following ratios of £ I at 4 per cent, per annum, whether paid annually or quarterly. Amoimt l'«year = R 1-01— Amount 2* year R* 1-0816 1st Quarter. td Quarter. 3(1 Quarter. 4tb Quaiter. R^ R- RA RA 1-009853 : 1-019804 : 1-02985 : 1-04 Jlh Quarter. 6ili Quarter. 7tli Quarter. 8th Quarter. R^ Ri Rl Rf 1-05024 : 1-06059 : 1-07104 : 1-0816 It must be evident on inspection, that any terms com- pared in each of these series, (being in proportion to yearly and quarterly, or two in the first, and eight in the second), will be the same in amount ; for the fourth root of R raised to the cigi)th jjower, is the same as R raised to the second power; therelJjre, whether interest be paid yearly, or (if in a corrct^t manner) (juarlerly, or momently, the results will be the same, however far the series may be extended. But, 14 ■^I Ril, if interest be paid as the common theorems indicate, Uiat is, a fourth of the year's interest quarterly, the series will become Amount if yearly 1'04. — Amount in two years 1*0816. Isl Quarter. 2(1 Quarter. 3d Quarter. 4th Quarter. 1-01 : 10201 : 1 030301 : 1-040604 5th Quarter. 6tb Quarter, nh Quarter. 8tb Quarter. 1-05101 : 1-06152 : 1-07213 : 108285 It must appear manifest, that no terms in these series will correspond ; and the farther they are carried, the ^reafer will be the difference between the amounts oi yearly and quarterly payments ; and as all present values must be proportionate to their respective amounts, if such differences continually increase, so will the differences in the respective values continually increase. An annuity is nothing more than a yearly interest on a corresponding sum of money; for an annuity of j£], and the interest of £25, if at 4 per cent., or of £20, if at 5 per cent., amount to one and the same sura ; therefore, if an annuity is to be divided into quarterly payments, each quarter's payment should be in the same ratio to the true quarterns interest, that the annuity is to the true yearly interest. Now the true yearly interest of £1 (the annuity) at 4 per cent., is -04 ; therefore, as -04 is to 1 (liie annuity). u so ife -0098533 (the true qiiarter's interest) to -2463325 (the true quarter's payment), being 4s. lid. instead of f> shillings. Wliether equal sums of money, paid periodically, are called interest or annuities, their increase will be the same ; and if correct portions of such sums are paid each tittiey and these are increased according to the true ratio ; lljeir amounts and their values will increase in the same pro- portion, for any number of years, or for ever, whether paid and increased yearly or momently ; but if the pay-* ments, or the ratioy or doth, be wrong, the amounts, in every period of time, must be dilTerent from the yearly amounts^ as will be clearly seen by the following four CASE I. Where the part of the Yearly Sum, or Annuity, is WRONG ; but the ratio of the Rate of Interest operating upon it, is RIGHT. THIS Case supposes '25, or \ of tlie annual sum to be paid ywar/cr/^, but improved in the correct ratio 1 .001)8533 j and as this diflerencu between the true payment -2463325, and 16 and '25, will be the same in each quarter, while the ratio of the rate of interest operating upon it, is correct^ whatever proportion the surjjlus interest or amount in one year bears to the correct interest or amount for one year, if the like proportion be added to any other correct yearlij value, in any stage of time, it will give the correct present value, if the annuity and interest be paid quarterly in this manner ; for example, — If each quarter's payment be '2463325, and improved in the ratio 1*0098533, at the end of the year the amount will be precisely £1, being the true amount of the first year's payment ; but if each quarter's payment be "25, and improved in the same ratio, the amount at the end of the year will be 1*014888: and in the same proportion as this exceeds 1, so will the true value for quarterly payments (at 4 per cent, per annum) exceed the value for yearly payments at the same rate of interest per annum. Now the present value of £1, to be received at the end of the year, is in the tables (at 4 per cent.) -961538 ; therefore, as £1 is to jei-014888, so is £-961538 to £-975854, the true value, if the £\ is to be made in four quarterly pay- ments of five shillings each; and as £1 is to £1*014888, so will £25, the value of the perpetuity, if paid yearly, be to £25*37221, the true value to give the purchaser 4 per cent, per annum, if the same be paid and improved in this man- ner quarterly ; and a like reasoning will apply to the yearly values for any intermediate stage of time. The proportion of 17 ol Ihi^ excess is about tiie 07"' purl of llie yearly value, and always continues the same. This is the error of both Sir Isaac Newton and Demoivre ; their ratio of tiic rate of interest was righty but the part of the annuity paid was wrong ; yet as this excess of annuity is constantly improved by a correct ratio of interest, such annual excess must require 25 years pur- chase for the value of the perpetuity, equally with the annuity itself; and this is precisely the result, for £1-014888 is rather more than £1..0..3^, and £25-37221, or £25..7..5| is 25 times the annual payment, as it ought lo be. Indeed it must be evident to common sense, that an income of £1 : : 3", per annum, requires more purchase mon?y than ill per annum, supposing the j?ame rate of interest in both cases, which all the tables and theorems imply. CASE II. Where the part of the Annuilg paidis right, as -2463325 quarterly ; but the Ratio of the Rate of Interest is WRONG, being TOI quarterly, instead of 1-0098533. xl ERE, the surplus interest, or amount, does not continue each succeeding year in the same proportion to the respec- B tive 18 live yeatly amount that it bears the first year, but \v> continually increasing ; for this difference^ which is not the 4000*'' part of the yearly amount, or £1 the first year, becomes in 50 years the 52*^ part of the yearly amount in that time ; in 100 years, it will become the 22* part ; and in 500 years, this difference^ between paying and improving only £\ per annum, yearly^ at 4 per cent, or quarterly in the above manner, amounts to more than two thousand six hundred millions of pounds!! which IS nearly the third part of the whole yearly amount ; in- deed, in 1200 years, the difference alone becomes equal to (heiohole yearly amount in the time, and beyond this term it exceeds the amount (improved yearly at 4 per cent.), and will go on increasing, till such excess becomes an unmea- surable sum. This case implies £1 per annum (or any annuity), imjjroved in the ratio 1*040604, or about £*4..1..2| per cent, per annum, which is as distinct from 4 per cent, as from 14 ; and in proportion as such ratio increases any annual sum more rapidly, so must the amount of any present worth he increased (if improved at only 4 per cent. per annum) to meet it. CASE 19 CASE III. fVhere the pari of the Annuity and the Ratio of the Rate of Interest are both wrong ; the Payment being One Quarter of the yearly Sum, or '25 instead of •2463325, and the Ratio being I'Ol, instead of 1.0098533. -I. HE theorems of Dr. Price, Mr. Morgan, Dr. Hutton, &c. are formed on this combination of errors, which will account for the great and increasing differences between amounts, when improved correctly, or according to their theorems. The differences arising in this case will be the sum of the diflerences of tlic first and F?cond cases ; for, instead of JEI per annum, increased in the ratio 1-04 (or 4 per cent, per annum), it becomes £1..0..3l per annum, increased in the ratio 1 040604, or JE4..1..2^ per cent, per annum. The amount of £1 per annum, thus received and improved quarterly for 100 years, will exceed the amount, if correctly received and improved at the rale of 4 per cent, per annum, by nearly 1-22' part of the yearly amount (as in Case 11), added to nearly 1-67''' part (as in Case I) ; b2 for 20 Ibr the amount, if liius received and improved quarterly for 100 years, is £ 1313 ; — but the amount of £ 1 per annum, if improved at 4 per cent, per annum, for 100 years, is only £1237 (leaving out decimals), and the difference, £76, will be very nearly 1-22*^ part, added to 1-67*^ part of £1237, and so is the dilTerence in the values ; for according to the tables, the value of £1 per annum for 100 years, at 4 per cent., is £24-5050, but this is as an equivalent for what will amount to £1237, in the time : if the annuity be received and improved quarterly, agreeably to this case, the amount will be £1313, the true value of which, by the tables now given, is £26*0003, and the purchaser will make 4 per cent, per annum of his money, as much in the one case as in the other. If an annuity be received and improved in this manner quarterly for 1200 years, or for 4800 quarters, it will amount to more than double the sum that the same annuity will amount to in the same time, if paid and improved correctly at 4 per cent, per annum, and of course will be worth twice the present value of the other. It may appear extraordinary at first view, that the perpetuity requires but 25 years purchase, (howevei* often received and improved, if it be correctly received and improved), and yet, apparently, this same annuity for a finite term requires upwards of 50 years purchase, which seems only to pay 2 per cent, instead of 4 per cent. Probably such a first impression induced Mr. Morgan to reject 21 reject Demoivre's rule ; for INfr. M. says, '« According lo " Demoivre's rule, if the term be exlcndeil, an annuity " payable quarterly \vill be worth more than even the " perpetuitij when the pnynienls are made yearly. Tiiis " appears to be very erroneous, and sufficient to prove the " fallacy of Demoivre's method of solution." But this very circumstance is " sufficient to prove" the truth of Demoivre's method of solution (as far as it goes) ; for it must be evident to common sense, that more money is required to purchase £\..l..'2j per annum for ever (or even for a finite term, if extended), than to purchase £4 per annum for ever, supposing the same rate in both cases, which is always presumed ; but if two equivalent sums are improved by difiiprent rates of interest, the longer the term, the more must they be separated ; and the circumstance of the value being oO years purchase for an annuity (if paid quarterly in this manner), and yet give the purchaser 4 per rent, per annum interest, when duly considered, will excite no more astonishment than for a man to employ his capital at 4 per cent, interest per annum, who may pay X*.')0() for only five .shillings a year for 30 or 40 years, witli a valuable revertion at the end of the term. S Parts. a Decimal £ Parts. J, Decimal 3L, Pans. 1 -0000 -9615 1 1 '0151 •97606 2 -0400 1 -886] 2 2 -0714 I •9151 3 -1216 2 -7751 3 3 -1706 2 •8187 4 -2464 3 -6299 4 4 -3145 3 •6880 5 -4163 4 -4518 5 5 -5047 4 •5245 12 -006 1 8 -1109 10 12 -2217 8 •2565 20 -0236 11 -1184 15 20 -4176 11 •3372 29 -7781 13 -5903 20 30 -4181 13 •8824 41 -6459 15 -6221 25 42 -6207 15 •9878 56 -0849 17 -2920 30 57 -5102 17 •7315 95 -0255 19 -79-27 40 97 -8467 20 •3804 152 -6071 21 -4822 50 157 -9026 22 •2!90 237 -9907 22 -6235 60 247 -3174 23 •5101 364 -2905 23 -3945 70 380 -4449 24 •4321 551 -2450 23 -9154 80 578 -6536 25 •1047 827 -9833 24 -2673 90 873 -7604 25 •6091 1237 •6-237 24 -5050 100 1313 -1350 26 •0103 63742 -5882 24 -9902 200 71599 -2300 28 •0704 821466/924 -5283 24 -9999 500 10983475000 -0000 33 •4264 32 TABLE III. Amounts and Values of Half-yearli/ Payments, at fwh at is called) 5 per Cent. per Annum. Amount of ^1 per annum, if paid aud irnpioved yvuily, at five per cent. Present value of £1 per an- num, if paid and iniprov< d yearly 5 per cent. No. of Years. Amount of ten shillings, if paid and improved kalj'-iiearly , at 2 and a half per cent. Present value of ten shillings, if paid and 1 improved half-yearly, at two and a half per 1 cent, so as to sjive the purchaser 5 per cent, per annnm inleiest. _ Decimal jt Parts. jp Decimal m 4 m >Rv.. W. UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS-URBANA 3 0112 062406761