HP 31 HMHfii v KB BOI THE UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS LIBRARY 6^0.7 I Wtt UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS Agricultural Experiment Station BULLETIN No. 315 BY C. L. STEWART. L. J. NORTON. AND L. F. RICKEY URBANA, ILLINOIS, SEPTEMBER, 1928 CONTENTS PAGE SCOPE AM) METHOD OF STUDY 65 DIRECTION OF PRINCIPAL MOVEMENTS OF GRAIN 60 M AKKETS ['SKI) 69 Northern Di.-lricf 69 Central District 69 Southern District 70 Western District 71 FACTORS INFLUENCING CHOICK OF MARKETS 71 Railroad Rates 74 Lake Transportation Costs SO Mississippi River Transportation Costs 81 Factors Other Than Transportation Costs 82 AREAS FROM WHICH DIFFERENT MARKETS DREW GRAIN, 1923 TO 1926 83 Chicago Dominates the Market in Northern Illinois 83 St. Louis Ranks Second as Market for Illinois Grain e markets vary for the different grains, vary widely in different parts of the state, and also shift from year to year. The Illinois Agricultural Experiment Station commenced in July, 1925, to collect facts regard- ing this problem. This information has been carefully analyzed and the results of the study to date arc presented here. Men closely con- nected with the grain trade are familiar with these facts, but there are many people, farmers and others interested in the marketing of grain. who are not so familiar with them. 66 BULLETIN Xo. 315 [September, The grain shipping records of about 350 Illinois elevators for the two years July, 1923, to June, 1925, and about 175 for the year July, 1925, to June, 1926, were analyzed. The information for the first two years was obtained in part by personal interviews by representatives of the Illinois Station and in part by questionnaires sent to all ele- vators in the state. The statistics for 1925-26 were obtained entirely by questionnaires. This accounts for the smaller number of elevators from which information was secured, the number of elevators sending in written reports being about the same each year. For convenience in summarizing, the state was divided into four districts: (1) northern, including points north of Peoria, El Paso, Oilman, and Sheldon; (2) central, including points between these and Jacksonville, Springfield, Decatur. and Mattoon; (3) southern, includ- ing the region south of this latter group of points : (4) western, in- cluding all points west of the Illinois river and south of Peoria. These divisions are shown in Fig. 2. The relative importance of different cities and market areas as markets for grain from different parts of Illinois during these three years is shown in Fig. 2 and Tables 1 to 3. More detailed figures are given in the Appendix, Tables 9 to 16. The distribution as described here is based on information from the reporting elevators. If figures had been obtained from every elevator, the distribution might be somewhat, tho probably not significantly, different. The destinations given are, in general, the first destinations to which the grain was shipped, altho in a few cases final destinations were obtained. As the greater portion of the shipments was made to distributing rather than to consuming markets, only the general direction of the movement is indicated. DIRECTION OF PRINCIPAL MOVEMENTS OF GRAIN Corn. The two major channels for the movement of corn were to the north and east, largely, altho not entirely, thru Chicago and to local manufacturing centers, with a movement of lesser importance toward the south. For the state as a whole Chicago was the leading market, with Decatur. Indianapolis, Peoria, and St. Louis leading competitors; and points in the states of Ohio. Michigan, and Indiana outside of Indianapolis made up an important secondary market outlet. Chicago was the outstanding market for shipments from the northern district. Chicago, Decatur. Indianapolis, Peoria, and St. Louis shared the shipments from the central district, while St. Louis was the principal market for the southern, and Peoria for the western district. Oats. There were also two major movements of oats: to the north and east largely thru Chicago: and to the south, in part directly IMS] MARKET DESTINATIONS OF ILLINOIS (lu.UN 67 TABLE 1. PROPORTION OF CORN SHIPPED TO DIFFERENT MARKETS FROM FOUR DISTRICTS OF ILLINOIS AND FROM ENTIRE STATE, JULY, 1923, TO JUNE, (Percentage of cars to each market) Market or market area District of state 1 State Northern Cent! 1 Southern '' Chicago 69.8 6.0 8.6 1.1 5.0 .2 .8 .1 0.3 .6 1 . fi 21.1 24 . f, 15.7 11.0 13.2 4.8 . f 2.4 ' 5 6 - 16.1 IS 1 13.8 10.1 4.4 1.5 - 20 . o 1 70.2 1.9 ".i f. . 2 37 ^ 16..'. 12.6 1 v 10.1 3 ! 2.8 1.4 4.2 . ."> B St. Louis Other Illinois points Michigan and Ohio points. . . Other eastern points Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 'See Fig. 2 for territory included in each district. TABLE 2. PROPORTION OF OATS SHIPPED TO DIFFERENT MARKETS FROM FOUR DISTRICTS OF ILLINOIS AND FROM ENTIRE STATE, JULY, 1923, TO JUNE, 1926 (Percentage of cars to each market 1 Market or market . Distric* of thi tati Northern Central Chicago ~>7 8 12 7 7 - ' 7 ;i 3 Lockport . . It' 3 4 Peoria 4 1 4 1 36 5 6 1 13 8 Indianapolis. . . 4 q X - Cairo . . . 12 17 7 7 Memphis 1 > 12 7 1 1 - Nashville '. ' 1 : 4 1 7 Other Illinois points 2 i 1 2 3 Other Indiana points. . . 2 4 Michigan and Ohio points 1 1 1 4 Other eastern points V Northern and western points . . 4 Stal Total. 100.0 Fig. 2 for territory included in each district. TABLE 3. PROPORTION OF WHEAT SHIPPED TO DIFFERENT MARKETS FROM FOUR DISTRICTS OF ILLINOIS AND FROM ENTIRE STATE, JULY, 1923, TO JUNE, 192F, (Percentage of cars to each m : Market or mi Northern : Chicago 1.0 .6 .1 .1 lit! 4 .4 . 7 14.8 .'.1 .2 St. Louis Indianapolis Peoria Other Illinois points ... Other Indiana points Points south of Ohio river . . Points east of Indianapolis Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 'See Fig. 2 for territory included in each district. 66 BUU.KTIX Xo. 315 [September, The grain shipping records of about 350 Illinois elevators for the two years July, 1923, to June, 1925, and about 175 for the year July, 1925, to June, 1926, were analyzed. The information for the first two years was obtained in part by personal interviews by representatives of the Illinois Station and in part by questionnaires sent to all ele- vators in the state. The statistics for 1925-26 were obtained entirely by questionnaires. This accounts for the smaller number of elevators from which information was secured, the number of elevators sending in written reports being about the same each year. For convenience in summarizing, the state was divided into four districts: (1) northern, including points north of Peoria, El Paso, Oilman, and Sheldon; (2) central, including points between these and Jacksonville, Springfield, Decatur, and Mattoon; (3) southern, includ- ing the region south of this latter group of points: (4) western, in- cluding all points west of the Illinois river and south of Peoria. These divisions are shown in Fig. 2. The relative importance of different cities and market areas as markets for grain from different parts of Illinois during these three years is shown in Fig. 2 and Tables 1 to 3. More detailed figures are given in the Appendix, Tables 9 to 16. The distribution as described here is based on information from the reporting elevators. If figures had been obtained from every elevator, the distribution might be somewhat, tho probably not significantly, different. The destinations given are, in general, the first destinations to which the grain was shipped, altho in a few cases final destinations were obtained. As the greater portion of the shipments was made to distributing rather than to consuming markets, only the general direction of the movement is indicated. DIRECTION OF PRINCIPAL MOVEMENTS OF GRAIN Corn. The two major channels for the movement of corn were to the north and east, largely, altho not entirely, thru Chicago and to local manufacturing centers, with a movement of leaser importance toward the south. For the state as a whole Chicago was the leading market, with Decatur, Indianapolis, Peoria. and St. Louis leading competitors; and points in the states of Ohio. Michigan, and Indiana outside of Indianapolis made up an important secondary market outlet. Chicago was the outstanding market for shipments from the northern district. Chicago, Decatur. Indianapolis, Peoria, and St. Louis shared the shipments from the central district, while St. Louis was the principal market for the southern, and Peoria for the western district. Oats. There were also two major movements of oats: to the north and east largely thru Chicago; and to the south, in part directly MARKET DESTINATIONS OF ILLINOIS (lu.u.v 67 TABLE 1. PROPORTION OF CORN SHIPPED TO DIFFERENT MARKETS FROM FOUR DISTRICTS OF ILLINOIS AND FROM ENTIRE STATE, JULY, 1923, TO JUNE, 1920 (Percentage of cars to each market) Market or market area District of M .State Northern Central Southern Western Chicago 69 . S 6.0 8.6 1.1 5.0 .2 .8 .1 6.3 .6 1.6 21.1' 24 . 6 15.7 11.0 13.2 4.8 3.7 2.4 3.0 . ."> 16.8 16.1 . f ') 32. ti 13. S 10.1 4.4 1.5 :; s 20. r> .<> 70.2 1.9 '.i 2 5 37 . x 16.. r . 12.6 9.8 10.1 3 . S 2.8 1.4 4.2 .6 Decatur Peoria Southern points Other Indiana points Michigan and Ohio points Northern and western points. ... Total.. ...... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 'See Fig. 2 for territory included in each district. TABLE 2. PROPORTION OF OATS SHIPPED TO DIFFERENT MARKETS FROM FOUR DISTRICTS OF ILLINOIS AND FROM ENTIRE STATE, JULY, 1923, TO JUNE, 1926 (Percentage of cars to each market) Market or market area District of the bate 1 Northern Central Southern Western Chicago :>7 . s 12.2 4.7 2.".. 7 .- Decatur 2 7 !< 3 1) Lockport . . . 16.3 9. ! 4 1 4 2 j 3t> f. 5 . 2 r> 6 39 " >(, ! 13 x Indianapolis . . . 4.9 X |i 9.8 Cairo 2.7 1 2 . f, 17.7 6.7 Memphis 1 2 r> 3 7 1 1 .3 Nashville r, 1) :. 2 1.2 2.4 Other southern points 2.6 1.2 2.7 Other Illinois points . . . 2 1 2 " 1 9 2 . :; Other Indiana points 2 - 1.4 Michigan and Ohio points 3.1 1 r. . 1 2.4 8 1 Northern and western points . . . :> > .4 State Total. 100.0 100.0 'See Fig. 2 for territory included in each district. TABLE 3. PROPORTION OF WHEAT SHIPPED TO DIFFERENT MARKETS FROM FOUR DISTRICTS OF ILLINOIS AND FROM ENTIRE STATE, JULY, 1923, TO JUNE, 192<'. (Percentage of cars to each market) ... . Northern Chicago 7 70.3 49.9 St. Louis 2.6 19.x 42.3 Indianapolis ] (i . 7 . Peoria 6 .9 Other Illinois points .1 3 (i 19.4 11. x x.l Other Indiana points .9 2.7 Points south of Ohio river Points east of Indianapolis . 1 4 .2 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 11X1 'See Fig. 2 for territory included in each district. 70 BULLETIN No. 315 [September. ated on the southern edge of the surplus-corn section, this district has a favored location for direct shipments of corn to points in southern states. Naturally its shipments have a wide distribution. Corn. The leading markets used for corn were Chicago, Decatur, Peoria (including Pekin), St. Louis, and Indianapolis. During the years beginning July, 1923, and July, 1925, Decatur received more corn from reporting elevators than any other market, but during the intervening year was led by Chicago. The increase in shipments to Chicago, from a little less than one-sixth of the total during the first year to over one-fourth the next, illustrates how the relative import- ance of a market may vary from year to year. Total shipments of corn were some 20 percent larger during the second year. In addition to these five major markets corn was shipped to a number of other points, the more important being Springfield, Bloom- ington and Champaign, 111.; Louisville, Ky.; Memphis, Tenn.; Sike- ston, Mo.; New Orleans, La.; Evansville and Terre Haute, Ind.; in- terior points in Ohio and Michigan, and to Buffalo, N. Y. There was little direct shipment to feeders and local feed stores in Illinois or to points in the East except Buffalo. Oats. St. Louis, the largest receiver of oats from this part of the state, drew from one-sixth to one-fourth of the reported shipments during different years. Four southern markets Cairo, 111., Louisville, Ky., and Memphis and Nashville, Tenn. received from 25 to 40 percent and Chicago from 6 to 18 percent of the total shipments. Decatur and Indianapolis were other markets of less importance. Wheat. Chicago, receiving nearly 80 percent of the shipments in 1923 and 1924 and a little over one-half in 1925, was the most im- portant market, with St. Louis second and Indianapolis of less im- portance. A few other points received small shipments of wheat. The wheat of this district is largely hard or mixed and much of it is ex- ported. Southern District A large number of the reports for 1923-1925 were obtained from the northwestern part of this district, which is very accessible to St. Louis, altho a good sample was included from the grain shipping area along the Wabash river, together with a few reports from other parts. St. Louis is the important market for stations that have favorable rates, but the presence of nearby deficit regions to the south and east causes grain shipments to be scattered rather widely. Corn. St. Louis was the principal market for corn, about one- third of the reported shipments going there. Chicago, Decatur, and Indianapolis were other important markets, and some corn was shipped to other points in Illinois, to Louisville and Nashville and into southern Ohio. Shipments per elevator were 75 percent larger during MAKKKT DESTINATIONS OF II.LINOIS GRAIN 71 1924-25, when prices were high, than during the previous year. A con- siderable part of this increase went to Chicago, shipments to that point increasing from about one-tenth of the total in 1923-24 to nearly one- fourth in 1924-25. Oats. The largest market for oats was St. Louis, the balance being shipped to southern points or into Indiana. Wheat. The wheat is largely soft red winter. The principal markets were St. Louis, mills at interior points in southern Illinois and Indiana, and southern points, particularly Nashville, Tenn. Relatively small shipments were made to Indianapolis and practically none to points east of Indiana. Western District Peoria was the most important single market for corn and oats in this district, receiving about 70 percent of the corn and nearly 40 per- cent of the oats. The other important outlet for corn was Chicago, which received 20 percent of the shipments, while the balance of the oats was about equally divided between Chicago and St. Louis. Wheat went to Chicago and St. Louis in approximately equal quan- tities, with smaller shipments to Illinois mills and to Peoria. This sec- tion shipped more corn to small points than did the others, the products going largely to elevators in cattle-feeding sections. How- ever, the reported shipments to such points made up only about 5 per- cent of the total. FACTORS INFLUENCING CHOICE OF MARKETS Many factors influence the choice of markets by a country ele- vator, but in general the shipments are made to the markets that can pay the highest price because (1) strong demands exist in the con- suming or deficit area served, and (2) transportation costs are less to that market. In general, grain tends to move from surplus to deficit areas by the most economical route. Competition of marketing agencies located on alternative routes to a particular consuming territory works to this end, the market with the most favorable combination of rates and handling costs being able to draw the grain thru the route on which it is located. The movement may be modified by the char- acter of the facilities for handling grain on the different routes, a mar- ket with a large storage capacity having advantages in handling a seasonably marketed product which a market more poorly supplied would not have. In the long run, however, markets otherwise favora- bly located for handling a given product tend to acquire storage and transfer facilities that will enable them to function to advantage. The location of mills using a product as raw material also in- fluences market movements. Location of such mills will be influenced 72 BULLETIN Xo. 315 [September, not only by the relative economy of bringing in raw materials and distributing finished products but also by the relative manufacturing costs at different sites as influenced by water power, cost of electric power, water supply, labor supply and other factors. The marketing channels created by these factors are not rigid or unchanging, for transportation costs vary from time to time and local variations in production cause shifts in the location of surplus areas and in the needs of deficit areas. A few examples will illustrate this point. (1) Where a water route is available only a portion of the year, transportation costs vary between the different seasons of the year; and (2) an abundant production of feed crops in the South re- duces the necessity of bringing in corn and oats in the usual volume, and tends to reduce the movement of grain in that direction, while a crop failure in the South has the opposite influence. These changing conditions are reflected in the net prices that can be realized in the different competing markets. While Illinois is not the most eastern of the corn-belt states, it is the most eastern state shipping corn in large quantities. Consequently Illinois has an ad- vantage in supplying the corn and corn-products requirements of the large consuming area toward the east, both north and south. This region includes the northeastern dairy region, where corn by-products are fed in large quantities, and the southeast, where corn is used ex- tensively as a food. The major movement of corn from Illinois ap- pears to be to supply this eastern and southern demand in part direct and in part thru milling centers located close to producing areas. There is a large demand for oats in the South to feed work ani- mals. Formerly there was a large trade to eastern cities, but the de- creasing number of horses has reduced this outlet materially. The United States Census Bureau reports that between 1910 and 1920 the number of horses not on farms declined from about 3.5 million to about 2.1 million, a decline of about 1.4 million. No official data are available since 1920, but the numbers have doubtless continued to de- cline and at present (1927) are probably not more than 1.5 million, or but little over 40 percent of the number as shown by the Census of 1910. A comparison of St. Louis and Chicago prices illustrates how de- mands in these two markets are constantly altering so as to give first one and then the other a price advantage. Chicago is the gateway to the eastern markets ; St. Louis to the southern. Differences in monthly prices of com, oats, and wheat at Chicago and at St. Louis over a series of years are shown in Fig. 3. If daily prices had been used, the variations would have been greater. From 1910 to 1926 the average differences between the monthly average corn prices was zero, the prices averaging the same for 45 months, being higher at St. Louis for 84 months and higher at Chicago MARKET DESTINATIONS OF ILLINOIS (i 1310 1911 I9IZ 1913 I9K 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 I9EO 1921 1922 1923 1924 I9Z5 1926 Fu;. 3. MARGIN BETWEEN MONTHLY AVERAGK PRICES OF CORN, OATS, AND SOFT WHEAT AT CHICAGO AND ST. Louis, 1910 TO 1926 The margins between the prices of corn, oats, and wheat, of the same class and grade at Chicago and St. Louis are rather variable from time to time tho the variations are not usually large in amount. The prices of the corn and oats over this series of years have averaged about the same in the two markets while the price of soft red winter wheat has averaged 2 to 3 cents higher at St. Louis. for 75 months. In 85 percent of the months the difference was les> than 3 cents. The average differences between the oa/x prices at the two mar- kets for this period was also zero, the prices being equal during 48 months, higher at Chicago for 93 months and higher at St. Louis for 48 months. During 80 percent of the months the difference was Ic-- than 3 cents. 74 BULLETIN No. 315 [September, Prices of soft red winter wheat were distinctly higher at St. Louis, the average difference being 2.7 cents in favor of that market. Never- theless, during 55 months the Chicago price was higher. During 64 months, or nearly one-third of the period, the price at St. Louis aver- aged 5 cents higher than at Chicago. These differences indicate how closely Chicago and St. Louis prices for corn and oats correspond and bring out clearly the ad- vantages of St. Louis as a market for soft winter wheat. The great variability in these margins indicates the tendency for a shifting in the relative advantages of these markets. From July, 1923, to June, 1926, the basic period for this study, there were 9 months during which prices of corn averaged the same in Chicago and St. Louis, 13 months when the prices were higher at Chi- cago, and 14 months when they were higher at St. Louis. There were 4 months when the price of oats was equal, 28 months when it W'as higher at St. Louis, and 4 months when it was higher at Chicago. Dur- ing the 27 months the price of soft wheat was higher at St. Louis and for only 9 months was it the same, or lower. During the three years indicated, the demand in the St. Louis market territory was such that St. Louis could pay a higher price for this class of wheat and for oats and about the same price for corn. This explains why a larger proportion of oats than of corn went to St. Louis from the highly competitive area in central Illinois. Railroad Rates 1 Railroad Rates to Chicago. One basis for the close correspond- ence in the prices at Chicago and St. Lotus is the large area in central Illinois from which both markets draw grain at equal freight rates. This is shown in Fig. 4. Freight rates for 100 pounds of grain shipped to Chicago step up irregularly to the west and south until the 11.5- cent rate line is reached. The area from which rates are less than this forms a semicircle with a radius of about 75 miles to the west and southwest of Chicago, a long tongue extending about 50 miles farther south along the eastern border of the state. To the west and south is a large area with a rate of 11.5 cents which roughly covers the east- ern two-thirds of the state and extends far enough south to include all points that ship corn or oats in important quantities. To the west the rates step up again, the isophors. or lines drawn thru points having equal rates, extending approximately north and south. Railroad Rates to St. Louis. The area from which rates favor St. Louis is a little more restricted, forming a semicircle to the north, east, and south, with a radius of perhaps 75 miles. To the northeast 'Acknowledgment of contribution to the graphic analysis which accom- panies this sketch of the grain freight rate structure is made to O. L. Whalin, Research Assistant in Agricultural Economics. MARKET DESTINATIONS OF ILLINOIS GRAIN 7.-, 25- " ^3 a a w ,sl -S ~ S e - - ', -*- ~ Zc - a -*- ^ *J5 *- '. s b "" ,- / "^ /: S J '0 .= .-3 C 76 BrLLETix No. 315 [Scptoti!' of this is a considerable area in the central part of the state with a rate of 11.5 cents from points on railroads that have direct St. Louis connections. The line of the Toledo. Peoria & Western Railroad, cut- ting across the northern edge of McLean county, is the approximate northern boundary of this zone. From all of this 11.5-cent zone, except the western edge, there is a similar rate to Chicago and St. Louis. The fact that both markets draw grain at the same rate from this section tends to keep the prices in both markets in line with each other. To the north and west the rates to St. Louis increase, the isophors form- ing concentric circles. Directly to the west of this 11.5-cent zone the St. Louis rates are equal to or more favorable than those to Chicago. To the north and east St. Louis rates steadily step up. putting St. Louis at a disadvantage in comparison with points to the south. Railroad Rates to Cairo. Cairo, a market used as a distribution point for much of the Illinois oats and as a transfer point for some grain to be shipped down the Mississippi river, has a 14.5-cent rate from a large part of the area from which rates to St. Louis are 11.5 cents and from a considerable region to the southeast (Fig. 4l. A rate of 14.5 cents to Cairo is directly competitive with an 11.5-cent rate to St. Louis, inasmuch as the reshipping rate from St. Louis to Cairo is 3 cents. To the north and west of this competitive area the Cairo rates increase; to the south they decrease, the isophors running ap- proximately east and west. Railroad Rates to Indianapolis. Fig. 5 is a map of the railroad lines points on which have favorable rates to Indianapolis. Unlike the three previous illustrations Fig. 5 does not show the isophors. because favorable rates are in effect, only from points on particular railroad lines. Instead it shows the location of railroad lines having the following combinations of rates: shipments thru Indianapolis. 41% cents or less to Xew York and 17V., cents or less to Ohio river points: and 14V, cents or less. local rate, to Indianapolis. All of the railroads from Illinois running into Indianapolis, and some that do not. permit grain to be handled thru Indianapolis on a thru rate from the point of origin to certain final destinations. This permits Indianapolis to servo as a primary market, and also as a milling point for grain from favorably located Illinois points. The points which ship any large quantity of grain to Indianapolis from Illinois have the following combination: a 41 1 -o-cent rate on domestic grain to Xew York and a 17V,-cent rate to points on the Ohio river. The 4lV,-eent rate to Xew York is in effect from a large part of Illinois, but the advantages of Chicago and other markets located on the Lakes in connection with shipments to the East make such a rate to eastern points of little use to Indianapolis. The 17V,- cent rate to Ohio river points is in effect from only a few points other than those located on railroads with direct Indianapolis connections. MARKET DESTINATIONS OF ILLINOIS GRAIN 77 The direct lines are as follows: the Toledo, Peoria & Western, the Lake Erie & Western, and the Toledo, St. Louis & Western divisions of the new Nickel Plate System; the various divisions of the Cleveland, FIG. 5. RAILROAD LINES IN ILLINOIS HAVING FAVOR- ABLE RATES ON GRAIN SHIPMENTS TO INDIANAPOLIS This map shows the approximate location of sections of railroad lines with the following com- binations of rates thru Indianapolis: 41.5 cents per 100 pounds to New York, and 17.5 cents to Ohio river points. From all such points there is a local rate of 14.5 cents to Indianapolis. Points having such rates arc located chieflj" on lines run- ning directly into Indianapolis. Cincinnati, Chicago & St. Louis (or Big Four) ; the Pennsylvania (or Vandalia) ; and the Cincinnati, Indianapolis & Western (now a part 7-. BULLETIN No. 315 [September. of the Baltimore A. System). From a number of points on the Illinois Centra - ;:.. is in effect to Louisville only. A favorable rate to Ohio river points thru Indianapolis is of ad- ;.ge to an elevator because this frequently is the most favorable rtain ki lasses f grain and -s to a nearby :. market has [vantages 1 ountry elevator operator. Railroad Rates to Peoria. The Peoria m:-. Fig c - simply - ! :e 2 cents or more ess than 1 se to < Th : -hipping rates on _: -tern terminal points are usu- ly L' nta m : : P( ri I ui from C g . Hence Peoria is on an as on shipn ta : .v>m all po: - .ing a proportional te 1 I : _ ts less 1 a that 1 Chi 2 Such ' -:- I :i -boundc- n the east sid< "f the Illinois 9.5- : tional rate to Peon- I rritory Mississippi extending n z . ral to the icago, Burlington & ':'.'." ;' :'road thru Prince- I . :. G Principles of Grain Rate Structure. T: e ture I igs. 4 to 6 is ~ : -v;lt of long evolution. The chief factor in mi rates : : ilar poiir 3 been competition competition amon^: - ''een rail ;;*er route- : isiness mpetiti long mark( 3 for : ges in handlin-j produ' and competition among countn." points in obtaining more - tisi :or their gruir.. Since the policy . ; _ . frail] rates has been the tendency has been to maintain a rather rigid structure. I or purpo- : L r e makii._ ' States is divided intd major rate distri - . Western and Southern. These dis- ta were not arbitrarily created but have been gradually evolved. : im being to group together territory in which condition- simib: making was concerned. Illinois points east of a line drawn thr a -Toliet. Peoria. Springfield and St. Louis, are in the Official territory. The balance of the - is Western territory. Commodities are divided for rate-making purposes into a number of ck;-- vhich a common rate applies and in addition there are a large number of products with special commodity rates. Grain is one lattei The rates on grain from Chicago to points in the East are certain percentages of the Chicago-New York rate, the percentages having been worked out on the basis of distances to different points and of terminal costs. The eastern rates on grain from most points in Illinois are based on the Chicago-New York rate plus the rates to Chicago, shown in Fig. 4. For in-rance, the Chicago-New York rate is 30 cents MARKET DESTINATION : for 100 pounds on grain for dome-- -umption. The rate from a point with an 11.5-cent rate to Chicago would be 41.5 York and rates to intermediate points between Chicago and V : FIG. 6. AREA FROM WHICH PEOP.IA HAS FAVORABLE RA:: .P.AIX This map shows the area from which proportional rates on g: 2 or more cents per 100 pounds higher than to Peoria. tlr> .; Peoria on an equal basis with Chicag all-rail transportation costs to eastern points. would in general equal given percentages of the Chicago-New York rate plus the Chicago rate shown in Fig. 4. Rates to Baltimore are 3 cents less, to Philadelphia 2 cents less, and to Boston and all New England points 2 cents more than the Chit N ..- York : On grain to be exported, the Chicago-New York rat- 7 5 ^nts per 100 pounds less than on grain for domestic consumption. The 80 BULLETIN No. 315 [September, market differentials vary on export grain also, that to Philadelphia being 1 cent and that to Baltimore 1V> cents under the Xew York rate, while Boston takes the Xew York rate. These differentials in favor of these markets were established as a result of a long controversy and tend to offset the advantages which Xew York has as a point of ex- port for overseas trade because of the large number of established steamship lines using Xew York as their American port. Rates to the south are built up on what is known as the basing point system. Relatively low rates are established to certain points both water and rail, which were determined largely by competition. Rates to other points in the South are equal to the rates to these basing points plus relatively high local rates. The effect of this is to cause these points to develop as distributing centers for goods to be consumed in the surrounding territory; tins is one of the reasons why shipments of Illinois grain into the South are made to relatively few points rather than direct to all points of consumption. Rates from St. Louis to southern points equal the rate from Cairo plus 3 cents. From points with an 11.5-cent rate to St. Louis and a 14.5-cent rate to Cairo, these two markets are on an equal basis. Points in Illinois from which Indianapolis obtains any large amount of grain usually have a rate of 17.5 cents thru Indianapolis to Ohio river points. The farmer is interested in the particular rate used by his elevator man in determining his buying prices, local buying prices being based on terminal market prices minus freight and other costs. From most points one of the interstate rates shown in Figs. 4 to 6 is so used. The effect of regulation, which has been of increasing importance in rate making since the movement was initiated in Illinois about 1870. has been toward greater uniformity and rigidity. All rate changes must now be approved by the Interstate Commerce Commis- sion. The chief underlying principle governing rate changes is protec- tion protection of investments in railroad property, protection of the position of different markets, protection of the interests of the indi- vidual shippers and of different producing regions in their trade out- lets. Lake Transportation Costs For shipments to the East either for domestic consumption or ex- port, the Great Lakes water route frequently gives Chicago an ad- vantage. For the three years 1923, 1924, and 1925 the average rate on a bushel of corn for domestic consumption from Chicago to Xew York was 16.8 cents, all rail, and 13.9 cents via lake and rail; corre- sponding rates on grain to be exported were, all rail 12.6 cents, and lake and rail 10.6 cents. Rates on other grains are comparable. This gives Chicago an advantage in moving grain east when the Lakes are open to navigation. From 1923 to 1926 shipments of corn from Chi- l'-t->8\ MARKET DESTINATIONS OF II.LINOIS GRAIN SI cago to the east by rail averaged 32,086,000 bushels and by lake 14,750,000 bushels. The lake shipments made up nearly one-third of the total movement. During 1923, 1924, and 1925 east-bound ship- ments of oats from Chicago were, by lake, 7,867,000 bushels and by rail 37,358,000 bushels, lake shipments being only about one-fifth of the rail shipments, compared to one-half in the case of corn. During the same years shipments of wheat from Chicago by lake were twice as large as the rail shipments, an average of 25,126,000 bushels being shipped by lake and 12,509,000 bushels by rail. In cases where the combination lake and rail rates are equal to or more than the rail rates, the advantage of Chicago as a shipping point disappears. Interior points west of Buffalo are not influenced by the lake shipments to the same extent and more direct shipments are made. Most of the rail shipments to Buffalo from interior Illinois points were made during the season when the Lakes were closed. The large volume of hard wheat going to Chicago indicates that the lake route furnished the cheapest transportation for moving out the 1923 and 1924 wheat crops. Anything that tends to raise costs on the Lakes or to lower costs by an alternative route, the Mississippi river, for example, would tend to shift the direction of this move- ment. Improvement of the all-water route to the Atlantic coast would tend to increase the advantage of Chicago in handling Illinois wheat, while improvement of facilities and the lowering of costs of shipment on the Mississippi would increase the advantage of St. Louis and Cairo. Mississippi River Transportation Costs The Mississippi-Warrior Service (otherwise known as the Federal Barge Line) handled about 6,000,000 bushels of grain, chiefly wheat, out of St. Louis and Cairo, the principal destination being New Or- leans, during the river seasons of both 1925 and 1926. Data furnished by Mr. J. P. Higgins, operating manager, were as follows: From St. Louis From Cairo Total tons bushels ton* bushel* ton* buxhelx 192.3 148,665 77,145 225,810 1924 104,813 90,149 194,962 1925 82,963 2,879,348 113,699 3,729,191 196,662 6,60X,5:W 1926 166,014 5,712,914 10,18s 354,240 176,202 6,067,154 Rates of 11.5 cents for 100 pounds, or 6.9 cents a bushel, from St. Louis to New Orleans, and 10 cents for 100 pounds, or 6 con is a bushel, from Cairo, were in effect during this period. The comparative costs, not including transfer costs, of shipping export wheat from a point in central Illinois by the Chicago-New York or by the St. Louis-New Orleans route were approximately as shown on the following page. 82 BULLETIN No. 315 [September, 1925 1926 Origin of shipment St. Louis Chicago St. Louis Chicago cents cents cents cents Freight from local station 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 St. Louis to New Orleans via river ... 6.9 .... 6.9 .... Chicago to New York, lake and rail export 11.0 12.2 New Orleans to Liverpool 1 12 .0 .... 14 .0 .... New York to Liverpool 1 7.0 .... 90 Total 25.8 24.9 27.8 28.1 ('Foreign Crops and Markets 14, 350. March, 1927.) Excluding transfer costs, which would be slightly higher by the Chicago-to-Xew York route, because of the one additional transfer necessary at Buffalo or some other Lake Erie port, the charges were nearly 1 cent higher by way of St. Louis in 1925, the lower charges necessary to reach the seaboard being offset by higher costs from New Orleans to England. In 1926 the increases in the lake freights shifted the balance slightly in favor of St. Louis. The all-rail export rates are higher than these, being equivalent to 14.7 cents a bushel from Chicago to New York and 10.8 cents from St. Louis to New 7 Orleans. The lower rate from St. Louis is approxi- mately offset by the higher rate from New Orleans to England. From the area having a 14.5-cent rate to Cairo and an 11.5-cent rate to St. Louis, an area which includes much of central Illinois, the cheaper route to New Orleans would be by St. Louis unless higher handling costs absorbed the difference of 1.5 cents in favor of St. Louis on the total rail and river freight. From points with a 14.5- cent rate to both St. Louis and Cairo the lower barge rate gives the latter an advantage on grain to be shipped by water to Xew Orleans. Factors Other Than Transportation Costs Relative costs, chiefly transportation, are of outstanding import- ance in determining market movement. Other factors which may be of influence are: (1) location of mills using grain as raw material; 1 2) available storage space; (3'i size of markets, and (4i services furnished by terminal market firms. The two factors mentioned first, relative costs and location of manufacturing plants, are the chief ex- planation of the relative importance of the different markets for Illi- nois grain. Location of Plants Using Grain as Raw Material. This factor is significant in all the important markets for Illinois corn. The percent- age of corn receipts not rcshipped for the two years beginning Novem- ber 1, 1923, were as follows: at Chicago. 51 percent: at Indianapolis. 64 percent; at Peoria, 42 percent; at St. Louis. 38 percent. At Decatur from July, 1924, to the corresponding date in 1925, only 7 percent of the receipts were inspected for shipment, a fact which indicates that 93 percent of the receipts were used locally. MARKET DESTINATIONS OF ILLINOIS CHAIN s;; The location of a cereal plant at Lockport explains the importance of this point as an oats market. Flour mills at points in southern and western Illinois similarly influence wheat shipments. Available Storage. When there is a large movement of a crop at harvest time the market with available storage space may have an advantage. Chicago, with a reported elevator capacity of 52 million bushels, has more storage space available than any of the other mar- kets considered here. Size of Market. Probably because of size, Chicago and, to a lesser extent, St. Louis and Indianapolis, attract some grain. A large market, in theory at least, should be able to absorb varying quantities of grain of different grades with smaller price fluctuations than a small market. A smaller market can overcome this handicap by buy- ing grain on bids with discounts agreed upon in advance. Services of Terminal Agencies. Services furnished to local ele- vators or grain dealers probably influence the movement of grain. Many elevators obtain market information from local offices of terminal grain firms. Chicago has an advantage in this respect be- cause its future market makes possible the maintenance of branch of- fices of certain of its grain firms at many downstate points which are in close contact with a group of local elevators. Markets located in the midst of producing regions, such as Decatur and Peoria. have certain advantages from the close and direct contacts that grain buyers may have with shippers in the vicinity. AREAS FROM WHICH DIFFERENT MARKETS DREW GRAIN, 1923 TO 1926 The above discussion indicates that a variety of markets com- pete for shipments of Illinois grain. Which market is used is de- termined largely by the relative prices that can be netted for grain, and this in turn depends on the relative prices in each market and the freight rates and connections. Chicago Dominates the Market in Northern Illinois The advantages of Chicago as a market for Illinois grain include the following: (1) location on Lake Michigan, which gives an ad- vantage in rates to the east during the season in which the lakes are open; (2) favorable railroad connections; (3) a freight- rate structure which permits shipments from central Illinois to go thru Chicago and east by rail at the same rate as tho such shipments were made direct to eastern points; (4) a large local consuming demand, the relative amount of which is indicated by the following percentages of the re- ceipts at Chicago which were used locally from 1921 to 1926: 84 BULLETIN No. 315 [September, corn, 50; oats, 27; wheat, 18; (5) the large amount of available stor- age capacity, reported at 52 million bushels in July, 1926. Chicago drew corn from all the surplus-producing section of the state except the lower Wabash valley, altho shipments from some of the railroad lines with direct eastern connections, such as the Big Four from Peoria to Danville, were rather small. From the northern area about 70 percent of the reported shipments went to Chicago and from the rest of the state an average of about 20 percent. Compared with this dominance as a corn market Chicago was less important as a market for Illinois oats, being the reported destination for about 60 percent of the oats shipments from the northern area, a little over 10 percent from the central, 5 percent from the southern and 25 percent from the western. Chicago was the principal destination for shipments of hard wheat from all parts of the state, being reported as the destination each year in the case of practically all shipments from the northern district, about 70 percent from the central, 50 percent from the west- ern, and about 20 percent from the southern. From this it may be concluded that Chicago dominates as the grain market for northern Illinois, but in the balance of the state meets keen competition from other markets. In this more competitive area Chicago has the greatest advantages in the case of hard wheat, followed by corn, then by oats, and finally by soft wheat. St. Louis Ranks Second as Market for Illinois Grain On the whole, St. Louis ranks second as a market for Illinois grain. Its location at a converging point for railroads from the north- cast and from the southeast, its favorable rates to southern points, the availability of river transportation to New Orleans, the presence of mills nearby, and the possession of a volume of receipts large enough to make a satisfactory consignment market are some of the reasons for the importance of St. Louis, particularly as a distributing point to the southeastern states. The necessity for using all-rail rates for eastern shipments, and the lack of any large amount of storage ca- pacity are limiting factors. The grain requirements of the St. Louis market were reported as calling for about one-third of the corn shipments from the southern Illinois district, and about one-tenth from the central district of the state but for practically none from the northern or western district. These requirements were satisfied by the elevators along the southern fringe of the corn-shipping sections. St. Louis finds it necessary to come farther north, however, to supply the oats which its trade requires, drawing about 40 percent of the total shipments from the southern district, 25 percent from the central, 20 percent from the western, and 5 percent from the northern. MARKET DESTINATIONS OF ILLINOIS GRAIN 85 There was a marked tendency for all soft wheat shipped from points on railroads entering St. Louis from the north to move to that market first. St. Louis drew only scattered shipments from the north- ern area, a little over one-tenth of the total the first two years, and in 1923-1926 one-third of the total from the central district, about one- third from the western and about two-fifths from the southern. Ex- cept in 1925 most of this wheat was either soft or mixed. Indianapolis Draws Grain From Eastern Illinois The bulk of the grain going to Indianapolis from Illinois points came from stations on railroads with direct Indianapolis connections, such as the Lake Erie & Western, the Cincinnati, Indianapolis & West- ern (now a part of the Baltimore & Ohio System), the Pennsylvania, the Big Four, and the Toledo, Peoria & Western. From the northern area Indianapolis drew about 5 percent of the shipments, largely from the Big Four, Illinois Central, and the Wa- bash; from the central area about 12 percent of the total but about 50 percent of the shipments from lines with favorable connections; and from the southern area about 10 percent, chiefly from points on the Big Four. Apparently the Indianapolis market has outlets that put it in a position to attract considerable corn from any point in the eastern part of Illinois which has favorable rates and connections. Indianapolis drew a small amount of oats from Illinois. Scattered shipments were made quite generally from lines in the northern area, but from the central and southern areas shipments were largely con- fined to stations located on direct lines. From three particularly favored railroads about one-third of the oats went to Indianapolis. Shipments of wheat were largely confined to the lines having direct connections and the proportion of wheat shipped from them to Indianapolis was less than for either corn or oats. Elevators on the three lines that shipped about one-half of their corn and one-third of their oats, shipped only about one-fifth of their wheat to Indianapolis. Manufacturing Plants at Peoria Attract Grain Peoria, with which has been included Pekin, was of primary im- portance as a receiver of corn, and also an important outlet for oats from western, northern, and central points having favorable rates and connections. Manufacturing plants using corn for various industrial uses are located in this market area. A large part of the grain from elevators using the Illinois river as a means of transportation goes to Peoria. No data were obtained as to the amount of such shipments. Shipments of corn to Peoria amounted to about 70 percent of the shipments from the western district, 16 percent of the shipments from the central, and but from 5 to 10 percent of those from the northern. 86 BULLETIN No. 315 [September, Oats shipments amounted to about one-third of the total from the western and a little less than 5 percent from the northern and western districts. Corn-Products Plant Chief Factor at Decatur The importance of Decatur, which is indicated to be one of the five leading markets for Illinois corn, is due principally to the location there of a large corn-products plant, and secondarily, to its develop- ment as a distributing point for grain. This market was reported as handling about 25 percent of the corn shipments from the central area during each year, as well as a considerable quantity of corn from conveniently located points in other areas. It is probable that a small part of the corn which was credited to Decatur w r as not shipped there but was sold to De- catur firms. The records of the elevators did not always indicate the point to which the grain was shipped. A large part of this grain, how- ever, was either used in Decatur or inspected there. A smaller amount of oats than of corn was sold thru this market, and the territory from which the oats were drawn was much more limited. Practically no wheat was shipped to Decatur. Lockport Draws Oats From Northern Illinois Lockport ranked next to Chicago as a market for oats from north- ern Illinois. The presence of a cereal manufacturing plant in this market is the explanation. It is probable that a part of these oats was reshipped to Chicago and other points. Movements to Other Market Points in Illinois Chicago, Decatur, Lockport, and Peoria have been discussed. The bulk of the Illinois shipments indicated as going to St. Louis actually went to East St. Louis, but as the sales were made in St. Louis, they have been accounted for at that market, Cairo has been included with the southern markets because of its location. The direct movement of corn and oats from reporting elevators to points in Illinois other than those mentioned was comparatively light. Springfield uses considerable quantities of white corn for manufactur- ing purposes, supplied from nearby points. Bloomington and Cham- paign handle some corn, chiefly from nearby points. From all parts of the state there is a small movement of corn to feeders, and to local elevators in areas that do not produce sufficient grain for local use. Such shipments were largest in the western Illinois district, where livestock feeding is extensively done, and were also of some impor- tance in southern Illinois, but they were of small importance in north- ern and central Illinois. Shipments of oats to other Illinois points, altho made from all parts of the state, were relatively small. 1928] MARKET DESTINATIONS OF ILLINOIS C!KAIN S7 Shipments of wheat to other than terminal markets were of some importance in the central and of considerable importance in the south- ern and western sections. In southern Illinois especially, there was a large movement to Illinois mills. These made up the second largest reported outlet for soft wheat, St. Louis being the largest outlet. Southern Markets Furnish Important Outlet for Oats Under this designation are grouped Cairo, 111., Louisville, Ky., Memphis and Nashville, Tenn., and a number of other points of which New Orleans is perhaps most important. These markets furnished an important outlet for oats and one of less significance for corn and soft red winter wheat. Cairo and Memphis were the most important. Direct shipments of corn to these points amounted to about 5 per- cent of the total shipments from the central Illinois district and about 10 percent from the southern. Direct shipments of wheat amounted to about 8 percent of the total from the southern district. About 5 percent of the total oats shipments from the western and northern dis- tricts and about 35 percent from the central and southern districts went to these points. Corn Chief Grain Sent to Eastern Markets The only market east of Illinois that has been discussed is Indian- apolis. The other markets were grouped as other Indiana points (In- diana outside of Indianapolis), Ohio and Michigan, and other eastern points, among which Buffalo is the most important. The direct movement of grain to all these points taken together is not large, shipments of corn being most important. By sections the percentages of the total shipments into this territory were as follows: northern, 7 percent, chiefly to Battle Creek and other interior Michi- gan points; central, 6 percent, about equally divided between Indiana points outside of Indianapolis (chiefly Terre Haute), and points in Ohio and Michigan, with a small movement to Buffalo, particularly in 1924-25; southern, 5 percent, into southern Indiana and Ohio; and western, none. The shipments were widely scattered from the north- ern area, but from the others were more largely confined to the rail- roads with their own lines into the East, such as the Wabasli or the Big Four. The direct eastern movement of oats was smaller. By areas the proportions so disposed of were as follows: from the northern district. 4 percent, chiefly to Michigan points, with a little less than 1 percent of the total going to Buffalo; from the central district, 4 percent; and from the southern district, 8 percent, chiefly to points in Indiana. There was a small movement of wheat from southern Illinois direct to mills in southern Indiana, but shipments cast of Indiana were negligible. ss BULLETIN Xo. 315 [September, Northern and Western Points Attract Little Grain The movement of grain to the north and west was very small. A few cars of corn and oats moved from the northern area to Clinton, la., and into Wisconsin. CHANGES IN MARKETS FROM 1923 TO 1926 From July, 1923, to June, 1926, no marked shifts took place in the markets used by Illinois elevators for grain. Comparative destinations from elevators for which reports were obtained for all of the three years are shown in Figs. 7 to 9. There was a noticeable tendency for the markets used to vary more from year to year in the southern part of the state than in the northern. PERCENT- AGE Of TOTAL 70 60 50 40 30 20 19 JO 20 19 40 TO CH1CRGO TO ST LOUIS TO DECflTUR TO PEORlft NOR' TO INDlflNRPOLIS RND ER5T 'HERN TO THE 50UTH 1 | _ III ! CEf JTRflL m m III III lB ?N 1 III SOUTHEF I 1 __m 1- 29 It 70 60 II 43 50 ill 1 . I . __. m iJL 111 WESTERN 1 I 1 rj M [ i i i ^ S ^ 1 I I f tD J Si .1 X C5 3S X M w rs ^ ell H ? 6 fa X IQ C1 CO ^< < J I Sg-g iE 4. COMI PRIVATE 1 (Perec in of points fr. shipmenta wci n lines imlicat 12 j Ulf ~ 111 jlhi .ml c- 1 3>1 d d HH II ^ 3 x H a C O = - - : : - : : : sj .N fa a - u C o| s fa 'ft ro *-j ^- ^i M PH ri -r ?) i M : = .!= - a * w 5 a fa jf r^ ', :c y M x - ..-: -i 1| i- ~- /" C*< U~ -* X 5 1 ~ X - -H 1-1 -r r: X 1 ?l "" ^ c - ," M -^2n fa t- -r ^ ?i ;) pincnts d I2J.S .~ 1| ^ = /. C '. a -x - =. ~ ;_ ,-= l|g : l r Ji ^ * : :- g1 ls=l .2 * c ^'~>5 1i s | r - 3 * PI nil C. U M 1 8 . II 92 BULLETIN No. 315 [September, .2 03 " = r , -u .22 "O Ijll 03 03 73 ->-= 'S be .2-;| 3 g Si? s e K - 3 2- '3 J3 O J= M| _5 += 3 5 < .- .T. rH 00 BB Q3 X -4-J HI r- Q O O ^ Z -, ^-H 02 z R " ~ O i *^j o S .2 S IB ^ Q ^3 O 9 .S fl C a tc C o rt bC C "C rt C S o [L B a QQw J; oca & ea JS o o M ~ O S S c - O CJ ~ OS" G, C3 IS '" O M g W3 CJ - O V. O C 6 w M I -9 is ;a 03 o *= ~^ J3 O he ^ " ' ill I 3 O O 49 M C -S O 3 S * op,. *S 03 g^ 8 - 'o ' C C i 1928] MARKET DESTINATIONS OF ILLINOIS GRAIN 93 elevators consistently shipped a larger proportion of their corn to St. Louis and southern points and a smaller proportion to Indiana and other states east of Illinois. Neither group consistently led the other in shipments to Chicago or other Illinois points. In the case of oats no uniform tendency for either class of ele- vator to use any of these groups of markets more commonly than the other is to be noted. In the case of wheat shipments, there were not sufficient differ- ences in destinations used to warrant the use of a table to show them in detail. CHANGES IN MARKETS BETWEEN 1912-1917 AND 1923-1926 In 1917 the Federal Trade Commission made the most complete survey of the grain trade that has yet been made in the United States. Comprehensive information was obtained from country elevators for a large number of points, including markets used for grain for each year from 1912-13 to 1916-17. At the request of the Illinois Station, the Bureau of Agricultural Economics, U. S. Department of Agricul- ture, retabulated the results reported to the Federal Trade Commis- sion by the Illinois elevators. A summary was furnished to the Station for the belt of counties across the center of Illinois, as shown in Fig. 10, extending from Henderson, Knox, Livingston, and Iroquois counties on the north, to Hancock, Scott, Christian and Edgar counties on the south. The markets used for grain from reporting elevators were dis- tributed each year as shown in Tables 6, 7, and 8. From this area grain is now shipped to many markets, and the same was true in the earlier period. Some significant changes have taken place in distribution, however. The most important of these are: (1) the decline in relative importance of Chicago and eastern markets as destinations for both corn and oats, (2) the growth of Decatur as a market for corn, and (3) the growth of St. Louis and the southern points as markets for oats. Presumably the belt in question has been subject to more change than areas north of it, largely as a result of the more northerly reach of the demand for oats from the South expressed thru St. Louis, Indianapolis, and otherwise, and as a result of the growth of Decatur and other corn-milling points in this belt. Corn. Chicago and Peoria were the two most important markets for reported shipments during this earlier period. Markets of lesser importance were St. Louis, Indianapolis, and southern points. Of still less importance were Decatur, 111., Buffalo, N. Y., and points in Ohio and Michigan. The tw r o sets of figures are not for identical elevators. A com- parison of the two series, however, will at least suggest, even if it does not definitely measure, the changes that have taken place. The pro- 94 BULLETIN No. 315 [September, 5 a J I is --- *r* _. o3 "*) i 1 "3 i 1 1 rt ) - gs o s |l ^* * -HONOO c 5 P | (NC^^O-HN.OCV^O H o a 1 "*-^ ( H g ^> it CS -1 ~ IN ^ _a o ^ "o ,1 o c ... c; . x ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ S e Q p-q a s = ^WNM ^ 1 Ol^COW*^^^^-* Q Q " >&&* c- g tS ^ 2* rt.S 13 fe ^xcqc-iorooiNt^'?: EH i OOO^NOSOO^iO m ~i~z. 3SSS2S222 = TA I'C. fyj IN N 1-1 N SO ^ ^ X tf o s occo-ooor.occ.- < NM-HW-r--SN- ^ " ^^-^-t^oco^ C a OWcow^lj-icotoegjH c c , ^ S M-Moo^c^o-^N-^r- is - .2 Ot-tONtONNO5C 1 _ ct c oooeooxwr-xre co I s " " K J X i O IS M = '^ 1 5 - < ~ :- .i o CS S lliilli -j. m ^ * 1 1928} MARKET DESTINATIONS OF ILLINOIS GRAIN 95 portion of reported shipments of corn to different markets for the two periods were as follows: 1912-1917 1923-1926 1912-1917 1923-1926 percent percent percent percent Chicago 38 23 Other Illinois points w 3 Peoria 19 16 Southern points ... 7 4 Indianapolis 12 14 Other Indiana, Ohio, and Mich- igan points 6 5 St. Louis 10 11 Eastern points .... 3 w Decatur 4 22 Points in states north and west. . (1 > (1 > 1 Less than 1 percent. Some important changes are to be noted. The decline in shipments to Chicago, the increase in shipments to Decatur, and the declines in the comparatively small shipments to southern and eastern points are marked. The indicated decline to southern markets may be due to greater uses of intermediate markets or to an actual decline in con- sumption of corn in that region. Oats. The disposal of oats has changed even more strikingly. In the earlier period Chicago was reported as the market for over 50 per- cent of the shipments while in the later period for but one-sixth. This decline has been offset by increases in shipment to St. Louis, Indian- apolis, Decatur, and to the south. Shipments to Peoria and to Lake Erie ports and points farther east declined. Cairo was of about equal importance during both periods in spite of a considerable increase in shipments to all southern points. These changes indicate a shift in the market for the oats of this competitive territory of central Illinois, the South having gained at the expense of the East. The explanation is the decline in the con- sumption of oats in the East which is due to substitution of motor for horse power. Comparative oats figures for the two periods were as follows: 1912-1917 1923-1926 1912-1917 1923-1926 percent percent percent percent Chicago 51 17 Ohio and Michi- gan points 4 2 Peoria 13 7 Memphis 1 Cairo 11 11 Other southern points '1 '> St. Louis 8 23 Eastern points .... Indianapolis 6 11 Decatur 6 Other Indiana Other Illinois points 2 9 points Points in states north and west . . 'Less than 1 percent. 96 BULLETIN No. 315 H O CO H lej ^ c S * !. S "S o S c. : : : :*:: : :. MM* ; i " M ! CO .... ... * I i !!*!*;;* cc ^ '. '. '. '. '. '. * '. '. '. '. '. c^ -ri rf -rtoo cc-r o r- *> - . ^. . . i ; i i i ! ; M ; :* * '. '. '. * * ; ; . . ^j. TC 01 ^* oa ; ; * * . .c- T-. r.c-ir-10- B ~ " " \ n . . " ; ; ; ;. DISTKl o ; M . ; s ^ - cc J --. 1 r ^~ . .* K : : : ; ~' * '. z -T ^r; :c t t^ tC C-l 7M f- " CC - rr ' "1 *^ i - - , SS S8SaSS TJ-O^: .. . ooo-'ft O vH ! ! II! '. '. '. ?," L: *2 -r,--^S SSS S* SSS 4. B8E rc ^ -^* 'M -r n ir? ?; O O O cc ^5 o i^ o -T* :r. i - T-I '" " 7-1 ^ 1 IS 1 p .c n ss c^oo p -r T>I * *-?! 00 t.70 S ^ *= = - = E i i j '* -s, ; T3 : : c ^ ' ' ~-~ '- ~~ d H S ""^ S 5 ^ = ^ J .'S '?'- Jl 3=| ~ ^ ^ 'f . ~~ ^^ E-i 2 S ^ - t = " -i = = -* T--'- -* X^ T-Tr^^tXti i ^i^ .o.^~~ J i s^S's's 3.S -'io.s"^^ ^ 2S2.Sg = ^ ^< 8 ="3-^ 't .-gj J J J "M ^a P<*m*ls3^OOSOPkOCJ 100 - 2 ot . S 1 m j! ; * ; * ; ; ; I s -E-H-I f.'-: - 71 - * * * ; t~ C t r ll . _ . . ri r. || _ n . . _ ! * .' ! : : : : - : : * '.* \ 4* x> * II* \ '.* f! . . . . _ . Z'S. ?.~ ' SOITHKKN DISTIUCT '. '. '. . . '. . * ~ ! ! ! \VKSTKKN DISTRICT i ; ! ; ; i ; : : ' ' "* ' '# i o 3* * .**'.'. t- /: , ....... i= 5" ri - CC C'l ri ci -to r- : 2 P - . - - # ; ; ^2 PL, Z Z?, , : : :~ : : : : ::::::* i - i- i' 1* ~i * " -* r^: t^. re ?i r-r - ^-ii- --. -1 .- ~1 4fe a a e rt - = L:. : ~ :f X . . ' *J o c-i c-i ^: -r c: --C r-! IT "^ yr ^r o ~ ~' ]r ' ' - ~j ._ f S re c-i r x ^: r~- >^7 -: - -i re '.-. ~- '. '. '. '.* r : ; *" - H. ' - w '-| ~ -* ri C -r ' ^: 1- ~ c; i ~ re c: '-r: r7 i ^ o o rj* rc r-- o c-i ^ c-l O :- '-. n = r- c: -r re ri ^ i- .1- ,c i- o - ri .- Total wcstLTii 1 . . . . 101 X = -= r : - ; : -= 2- s ; __ p f _ I'l-li (ntl . Of 1 ': - TIIKHN DISTKHT jj ; I 3~ a li a o S 2 - - I ^ ~ S r - - _-: 2- - - c -r .--.- = >: - - r. - - - - -- -I ~ 1 2 ; D = - - s. 102 Ill h ' . 3 q c I ? 9 - 1 5 ._ 'S = - - - - - ,1 - . - . it ..- - - E .1 ; h - ~ 1 ^ J = - _ _ i|l! jil IS ll=l4 = = S 1 _' - '-: 103 | O 4 " in 3 : : : :" : : : ;- ***:;* i ; ! -"=-0 9 .2 CJ3 S " : " ; : S" : " 10 - =-- *. -- - * - -" 5 1 1 4 o 1 - 1 : : ; :* : : : : :. i 30 -H o rc I ) E.a - N N- M .... 1 1 > ch destins i| : : :::-": : : ! * . :ars to ea o : " -, : : : : :. J C o ! '3 = H : : : : : > 1 S '- O O i fe 5 J3S a Q ,- ,,_^ - _. o" 1 H a S )RTHER '. * '. '.'.'. \ '. '.* CENTRA * ;!;;; !* H H : n 5 H 33 1 PL, 85 P : -- - : S : s : = Ij 5 H 1 H J | 2 2P .2 *^ 3 coo .i o o S cc VD -CO :;:::;: r A 5 jj o o-^t* eoorc c;-- cocct^ i i IPS fi 1 S| H ir CC OCC OJOOtO -^O (MiOCC -H -H tO . ssi . , . , 3 i 1 t S c : a '.'.'.'. : . : : := := :S : : s i IE 1 i p: or sections of roads, which shipments were ported. "Sc ' to 2 : S ' H !s a "ia 1 1^ ll 11 < o do d d 'f c 104 ,|g 1 | !| ^ Q ^1 "S 'i'i'S ">" a _o ta a 1 1 1 *o 1 c i $4 g-a sir >3 a & SOI'THKKN DISTRICT o o n '1'ercentnKcs arc avcraRca of the groups anil arc not weighted \>y number of ca: *Lcss than .1 jierccnt. |1 o i K :RN DISTRICT g-^.2 s as ~* n . . .~; . -~; l-d IM . ' ' M T) M 15 Si * ri c-i ~* ; S !> 0-1 t- o - e.2 !" . -r ; -r ri i : * : i u 1* s . s a , . . . i? a.ta on | 9 2 : : : : : : : - : "' ' S = t- -.2 -~ y [ - OX5 =5t= ceo "I CS a! 3 il ~ S X c-i ' x -r - rj X i _-. . . _ : _ -S2 : . - ~; r^ . ri o -1 -rr -^ . SSS : ^ >^ -f - t_-- Lt y: ~ = v: ^ r ' fi | 2 A| u* t- -^ cc -r *. -r i.-; n - ""- Hailroads witllin district or sections of roads, or which shipment* were re ported. iiii Lu S J| : i a 0' a '1 *' J i = = - - S=? 5 =2il i-2 -i-s; E^= " t.= 3 C7 * S 1 =n~<^ 2 -W ^SodS^lo^ I J| aS 'J-J -Si: c ' C.B.A Q Wuhimh Total western 1 .... Total state 105 ^s T a || 6 c 0" 1 n ="2-S t . I S ! 2 6 '- EJ - 1 a = C*" * a ,3 s - c 1 0- 1-s 11 lj ll O .i - iP 1 if ^1 fe-g tfl-d idl ^a c-S 388 '?; * M .2 M 2 III 111 : :::: i* r, - :::.:: :. - . ::::-.-:- . - C-, . . . . * : * : ?i ^' " - ; ; -- *.- CO "* C^l c: CO - C9 : : : : - : :. ' uS-^2 S : ! - S ^ : : : :* " . : S :S ; - : : :. B s : : . . : *o W c,^, g 5 = .^ - o. . * : : : : : : : : : : : < - .* H Z C, - X (MOC 0.^ , ::-.- O roc^i c ^ ^ *~ c: ^- >c x c: * * - * so kC OO C^ M * * JH _ - CO r, ; c * - '?* ** ..#... - : - : :- s : SS :- = S2 a 2S ?,gS;S?? - " ^ -- ^ -- - ej co * ; S-oc,*. ' " ~ u? g. a >x SHM S Sa2 S" "*6 oo t^-ro o ?c ^t" rc^ *oO' ' A " : : : :d : : : : 1 i I i : : : ; | j is | ? : _ ill IH If 1=1 H T^ "^ ^ ^ ^ *^ W ^ ^ P^ c5 o 'a X J PH :3 g --- I -o 2 c j, i > i=si ||| sis I'l^i^l"^"! s .JjllJJ 5 o o ci 106 1 . . "53 E o - il : :* : : : :* c _c ca : : :<^ : ^ i--? ~- ?! .... o <;s - h * > O*" 1 is r^ ce ire s^ * : - : : : :- : - : = a i J eeiM r- T o ~a c 3 -a 1 3 - re r- . _ . . _ % ft* - | ^ - 5 t-s --.- i ?- i % || -,- - -, O g Z S - |l - : g ;^ o rt : - : : : : ;- : : - - 5 * * = .5 C-l =; t- 3C 30 CO t- .- 1 M s o o S-. BO OOOOt- -b. ,- X - i .- J> ill rl K to M .23 *^ 3 V. O 30 -; C5 O C-l C-) i - S ii , i : : 8SS s = i ; il "--: :- : : 2 :* ^ ; si re * oa ic cs 01 ^7 - O re ce ^i C-) O = ire ~ il -q - ^ .-, 2^ *" ^'^ * " **' C ~ *" ^1 " . o -- "I? : - : -fi' S ' ' : : : n c 3 's 1 'I K. sections of roads, on shipments were report : illi^' s o S 5:5 2 '^ ~ -^ cj ' C o b ' c = S "'*- :,<'. t-J s i -g ~ ~ z ^]t | .-e-E g c - ^. C.B. AQ.... Other western lines. . Total \v. 107 | *1 . . . . -, . ^S s fc "m O 55 1 10 r- 01 -^ c- PQ g *" os -o- o so min c-j o p o i| 35 * ~- TOCO C-1 ^TOl^ p w 3 S Q as t> *o ! O 5 11 H ; : -o -*-. * a Q l *| S g o 3 g _H--^i . fe S.2 rt *!M to H z CO ij< t^ Tj< 05 CCGOCD iO O * cDCi C^^rO o-^ OIO^2 >C -* CO (M ^Ht-t- ^ Tf COC^CO -i O o So S coS H : S 22 S SI !S ^>-i s O i Ij fii jjijjj J ffflit 11^l5 S3 . -5 o t- a - :j i -.g I :a 1 1 .2 c t-u~ . -J- . . . . . . . MtOO h 1) 3 2 : g^ : : ~- - -Wt- 'OO'^ JZ a*" 2 ill .^. .... to 1 i 3 s C^ .-H I 52 H u H s sl CC T< y S Ot *0 CO n g _f^ 0> 3 M^ -U5 z . . . . P z jz; > s * E w e H I SO) J ~ -^ s . ."** > * # cc o TTM OCJU5 : : : : : : :gj : : * : o e* O 4. J = c to cc - p> CC - - .i A _ o = ^ ?-, - : : :~ : SS : : : : : : : :* j O CC C; 'C H2 O C ** ^- ^- cc t^ o re o COM" Oic o ro coor~ 1 I^GCC;aOO CD^Oirt ooo CO C* ;=S g OC tC OS CO -O *> O l~ 00"5t~- ; ; ; S . . I. J I 1 H . Ill 5l Si 1 3|| 1 ill -' -3 '3^ < "5 ' 5 a TLO * 1^1121 US MO 3^jiriidiJiidir CSK o u >- s- o C.B. &Q Other western lines Total western 1 Total state 109 a J j| 8? Jl 11 C a "I 5 * 1-5 P3 g (N |i| ;-; N ;;~;-; T< C-l 't>. CC -C-l O5 i 1 J is 91 -: - a > : :2 : t> 1-5 of M t . i s : S "* . - : : :* - . -.* : :* s ; c 2 _o c 2 1 - -- 2 - : : : :* o co co CD o ce 1 A . C-3 t- tC CC - CC 2 Q*- '~ o ji-g - . ~r ~v I 1 ^^ Q "o -r X ^^C7^. . -CC p s O 00 EH =. 5 qi C-J ^ S & ^'0 a fe 1 C8 = c ,0 .C ,- .OCC cc cc.c a w K PMEN r It o z ., ; ; ; ; 0,*- ; ; :2 5 S s- :s S :S W CO O CS CO i -* * C-4 S - g=--S- S :S i ,_ C Jr= ... DESTINA ^5 ^^ C^l O 00 CO 1C . . , . CM " " "^ :2I :?! " '.' rt VTS: MARKET ] .i -C bl o g ^1 T-l ' ' 1C ^- 7-4 CM CC ^^ ^" 5 S SS3 g Sg ! rH 5 1O O OT TTCDX; O -_; E-'^OO o 110 * o il ^ s I- 6 * 1 p-si o a^ J-s * c-i C" ~ ~ o~ a .s (M "8 1 S ( - SJ 3 3 Q* o 4"E o e ^~ -a *o S-s _c "3 | 1 5i H - o S 5 o PH t] ^5 3 S ^ -Tf 5 g ^ i> s = 1-1 ^ 00 a ?5 - ^J , 1 11 z > JS S w m g.S 5 "a, a H P re - c-l ^f ro . _,. ; < a H g c-i =-. l- L- ^r u; o g en GJ "5 = 71 c ^ : ' t ub&. 2 r; ... . . fr 1 ^ C >. .-S ^ o M * i^- o c: c: CO O C ~ S as OH TO -** ^c- m -c o ^H .i O JS M t a; . o re not w gl -1 c-i O re T re O - O ~ re cc i^ C-l !~ -J- ^- Tf * I! pint rfill ir -E 5-g t- ^ t-t r^: T r~. * ic n --r c & ^3 "S fl| ::::,:: : : :, 1 . 00 = . ! s 8 s : '= ;r H I =| 5 r? 3 c n "H = 1 5 are ave percent p sections of r shipments we t. .= c-5 2 t = s cyo fc="5 J|^o<*| o |^ tQS**ld* |<| a a'^.'^ ^^i o c? :-a -1 *1 E= K i 'Percentage 'Less than .1 111 ^ l" 3 ^ : : : : ::*::::: "S.2 S3 &o 3 S J-s Ol C) ^ M 1 o 1 - 1 55 j 1 S3 . CO I~ . . . rt . . - i o~ g 1C s o S es i 1 s 1 ^ *2 !M O (N OS w? t~ W C^J M ... WN . . ^ i M 3 roj -< O * t-oo >* < t~ o -ooeot^ &. O E i o g SO O CC5 GOO OO OO<^ 00 CJ OOO CRCBC OO OOC-- Oi CC C-* 00 z S en 1 1 ' ' :. :::::::: K 1 c oc cs r c^ 10 t-- * o "** -^* t- Ci^^OiC^ieO^* ^ Cit SC ^fiM OCC1C5OCSC5 ^ a g si ^ gc^ c^ ?* oioO'-t coo r^cc M (M CC!O "^"^ * f~ t^CC-* oo ^ h- c '- o to o I s - ^* co CO Clt^ 00 "M 5OCSCiMO T irf i i if Pi o uo ira o NOO oo re oo-* -^'j'o -H M -H ; OO t^- CO O CD iC Tt C OS -H 00 - a j * i^ d -o g : : : : o '^ o : -O ' S - 03 o Railroads within di tnct, or sections roads, on which shi nieiits were reporte tx . s "^ a s -5; s : "i %~a I 1 -ad If ili -ooa g . oSca e^ &, H ? - : * ^s, p?3 s |i od^TC ' s ' s & : cy'oM-s tg "o-g-3 |wl2|^*|*^ IliiSl ^Sl^^^^|So|g|^| H <5 o c5 dc5 odw ^o 1 111 f II ill ill 1 if! -Ke 5-i .ill^I^'sS iaS^H ll^lll^ldll .111111 ^*5 l*i*l^cJS6(S86 in d do ^ 112 oj"o c - - : : : : : : : : : . ,-1 ^ "S.2 S d"* 3 - * '. ' 8 I I j " I s * i J a ' Ij : : : : : : :. JO . . . -CMCO * I 1 I 3 ' CM :::-:.. :-::::. CM .2 CTCSO C c5 i-l O CM "o 1 ~ S CO -Tf . . . Kn 5j" CMC>4 ^ CM-U5 CO CM^CM otooo c 1 ill CO -H 00 -CO = . ; ; .^, . . . ^ M g O 00 CO OC CO 10 CM *-( i it-- t^-O ^ti c^i-t<- CO UOC^CC S :2 : .- o _C t^ 1 og IS S3 *flt 10 :" S S 5S 10 : S = S S^S ; Ij 3D - CO -* -X! < t^- O l^-CO C5 5O 1C *O O s ss r,^ s ^53 - g5S CM t~O> OC ^1 -. ^ jo t^ f 1 ^H CO CO i^T^ O * " : : : : : : : : : :. H o 3 ^.2 t ^ O 'C : : : : i X 'O CCCM CO ^^OCM CMCMC5 CM CO 2 3 S5 "o e u. K ^=p co H e J "5 c * P i ^ o ^ 1 -c * CM * ~f < CO -* ; ; ; '. '. t ; co ' ^ ' 1 a | a I - - t , . . . . CO CM i ta 1 CL, "-5 o "o 1 = r= : :- : :. . 5 ^2 . : - S :5 S -S8 = '---- : aC 1 ]= i 11^ e,g . ; . CM. T 1 & y, ^ b ^ ; || M re rq -* -.) ~> CM p Hj r 5g "f d c O5 M.$ : : : : : :" :" i I * oj ^ & a ^o ^ a g 3 a 1 O = j h-l h O JS o | B *o (LI 1 Q o 1 1 a <^ . -^ P o 1 o g fc fa s o H 1 5 i CO O s H ^ ^ ^-.ooccc^ fa I a 3 a z OS 5 ij w 3 d, M 9 02 h 1 i_S ra NORTHI O ir^ - ^- - - -- CENTR; r ^^ ^ioooi^-ccoos ^p ^H *-< CC CO *C 5^4 ^J* CO CC ^NATIONS C o I 12 5 r mo ooci or- c>oc; Ci 0:0 ooo! oo; oocr. CO tO GCCiOGOOCOOCQC'l c^ oc r^-io-f-^'CC^coic CC H H H U 2J Cars shipped M r? c^ re v: C: cc C-. >o --O -f to =- i- o> 10 cc iooocecc-** T ^ H <3 W 3 I re ^ re c-j cc --C -r ct ^i ic re o O O O~--*^-f3C^-f a ? c fc |? W OS 1 CO fc- B a 1 ;1 ; -t^ 1 - 1 - 9 n < H 1-g |1 Is lil I 2 I ^"0 o c . . I 1 ?- '= .2 ' 'S.SS gi. Se S^-s fe S~BL. 05 S J1 M ^ d 22* Is is^ 5 r;-af*-: ff3| 1 H^lHjrilSW^Iglll 63 OKr. : 3S2- cl sssl = ,2 o c c c s > te S"3 :=-- g S is -5-s a"ca"c a ?. iisi5 i. i ' c oS : c c = c 3.2, j j: fe o^j g g gH =^I .lljsfefcfe Mft*cBobo B ^'Saaa S O - i HSSCOO 114 15 i - s J"S c = c EH ~ .a J"5 's 2^:3 ----- r-- *, c c^ r : "C ^ = ^ 5 % = ill !i J ^ llo 9 f ^ 'SJ I "VERSITYOF.LLINOIS-URBANA