321.8 
 
 H652o 
 
 Patriotism Through Education Series 
 
 No. 8 
 
 The Outlook for Democracy 
 
 Address by 
 
 Dr. WILLIAM H. HOBBS 
 
 Professor of Geology in the University of Michigan 
 
 at 
 
 SPEAKERS’ TRAINING CAMP FOR EDUCATION 
 IN PATRIOTIC SERVICE 
 
 and 
 
 CONFERENCE OF ORGANIZATIONS ENGAGED IN 
 
 PATRIOTIC EDUCATION 
 
 Chautauqua, N. Y., July 7, 1917. 
 
 Issued by 
 
 NATIONAL SECURITY LEAGUE 
 31 PINE STREET 
 
 NEW YORK CITY 
 
UNIVERSITY OF 
 ILLINOIS LIBRARY 
 URBANA-CHAMPAIGN 
 BOOKSTACKS 
 
 Ladies and Gentlemen . 
 
 Two ideals, as far removed from each other as the poles, 
 are today in conflict for the mastery of the world. In the 
 one, which is based upon the ancient doctrine of the divine 
 right of kings, the individual is a pawn to be moved about 
 and sacrificed at the will of the controlling power. Op¬ 
 posed to this autocratic conception of government is the 
 democratic ideal that all men are created with the inalien¬ 
 able right through their co-operative efforts to control their 
 own destinies. The great conflict, which has now been joined 
 for a period of nearly three years, is the outcome of a most 
 comprehensive and scientifically organized plot by autocratic 
 rulers to secure through a series of successful wars the 
 domination of the world. 
 
 Conquerors have before appeared upon the stage, some 
 of them equipped with the qualities necessary to accom¬ 
 plish the subjugation of the world of their day, and in a 
 number of instances thev have been able to come within 
 
 j 
 
 measurable distances of their goal. Each has owed his 
 measure of success in some degree either to a prevalent su¬ 
 perstitious belief in his invincibility or to the superior or¬ 
 ganization and discipline of his followers, advantages which 
 have not required a prolonged period for preparation. The 
 great advance of science which has been largely accomplished 
 during the last half century, has brought a revolution in the 
 nature of warfare between nations and transformed it into 
 a competition of complex engines and ingenious new-found 
 inventions which are wrought out in advance, are handled by 
 corps of highly trained technical experts, and are fed by 
 hoarded supplies of munitions so large as almost to surpass 
 belief. Science has thus unwittingly placed a premium upon 
 dishonesty of purpose and given every advantage to the 
 predatory nations. Unless warned in time and forfeited 
 through expensive preparations, those nations which are 
 peacefully inclined are at the mercy of their aggressive neigh¬ 
 bors. The predatory nations will therefore see to it that 
 their own preparations are carried out under disguises and 
 
 2 
 
3QI.ST 
 
 HGSQo 
 
 as secretly as possible, while they develop by every means in 
 their power the pacifist tendencies which may be either latent 
 or active in those neighboring nations which it is their pur¬ 
 pose to attack. As between autocratic nations, those in a 
 backward position of industrial development are under a 
 serious handicap which may be insurmountable. Advance in 
 technical science when combined with highly developed and 
 efficient organization of a virile race, may offset great su¬ 
 periority in man power or of personal courage and individ¬ 
 ual skill. 
 
 Studiously Planned. 
 
 As in an open book, the war has now revealed to us 
 what before was patent to the fewy that the assault by Ger¬ 
 many upon her European neighbors had been studiously 
 planned and industriously worked out during more than a 
 generation, and formed but a part of that comprehensive 
 scheme of conquest which had been launched by Bismarck 
 in 1864 with the wresting of Schleswig-Holstein from Den¬ 
 mark, and had been followed after the elimination of Austria 
 by the crushing defeat of France in 1870 and the ruthless 
 taking over of Alsace-Lorraine. The present attack was to 
 have been limited to France and Russia, and was to have 
 been followed later by wars aimed at England and after¬ 
 ward at the United States. It is this which explains the 
 outcry that was set up in Germany when England cast in 
 her lot with her natural allies rather than wait for ‘‘The Day” 
 of the inevitable assault upon her after France and Russia 
 had been reduced to impotence. 
 
 In most respects the German plan seemed perfect, and 
 the attention which had been paid to each detail is marked 
 by an efficiency which has compelled our admiration; but 
 Germany has none the less labored under one heavy handi¬ 
 cap. No amount of industrious forethought could correct 
 the myopia of a mental vision which had been constantly 
 focussed upon intrigue. From this defect in her outlook 
 upon the future, the German military caste has made re¬ 
 peated and fatal mis judgments of national and race psychol¬ 
 ogy. With clearer vision than his followers and imitators, 
 Bismarck declared “we cannot foresee the cards held by 
 Providence so clearly as to anticipate historical development 
 through personal calculation." 
 
 3 
 
With varying degrees of impatience and irritation, we 
 have listened to the most vociferous and persistent German 
 denials, both official and unofficial, that she has had any part 
 either in planning or in beginning this war. Standing upon 
 the balcony of the Royal Palace in Berlin just after he had 
 launched his armies upon Belgium, the German Kaiser de¬ 
 clared to the immense throng assembled below, “Envious na¬ 
 tions on all sides are forcing us to justified defense. They 
 are forcing the sword into my hand. . . And now I bid 
 
 you go to church, bow down before God and ask His help 
 for our brave army.” In the earlier German denials, it was 
 rehearsed in chorus that France had begun the war, that 
 French officers had flown over Belgium and that bombs had 
 been thrown upon the Nuremberg railway station. Neither 
 statement was true, and the Nuremberg story was later re¬ 
 pudiated by the German who it was claimed had made the 
 charge. Somewhat later, Germany’s charge of responsibility 
 for beginning the war was transferred to Russia, and event¬ 
 ually, after the initial reverses, when efforts to obtain sep¬ 
 arate peace with France and Russia were being undertaken, 
 to the shoulders of England. Germans then were asked to 
 pray, “God punish England,” and for composing the “Hymn 
 of Hate” Lissauer was awarded the Iron Cross. Let us lis¬ 
 ten to a stanza of this hymn as it is being publicly rendered 
 by a chorus of male voices to a great audience assembled in 
 the Alberthalle in Leipsic, the composer accompanying his 
 verses upon the piano to music written by the Director of 
 Church Music at Chemnitz: 
 
 “'French and Russian, they matter not, 
 
 A blow for a blow, a shot for a shot, 
 
 We fight the battle with bronze and steel, 
 
 And the time that is coming peace will heal. 
 
 But you we will hate with a lasting hate, 
 
 We will never forego our hate, 
 
 Hate by water and hate by land, 
 
 Hate of the head and hate of the hand, 
 
 Hate of the hammer and hate of the crown, 
 
 Hate of seventy millions choking down. 
 
 We love as one, we hate as one, 
 
 j 
 
 We have one foe and one alone. 
 
 England! 
 
 4 
 
German Morals Bankrupt. 
 
 After nearly three years of frightful war, at first dis¬ 
 traught by the new conditions, the world has at length ac¬ 
 quired such a clear perspective that Germany’s statements are 
 no longer taken at their face value. Her credit for veracity 
 has fallen even lower than her currency. In morals, she is 
 today a bankrupt. The “inveterate confidence” in her which 
 for so long tied our hands in this country while the German 
 embassy at Washington was working overtime to direct the 
 plots against our Government, has now given place to a 
 clarity of vision and to a determination to make every re¬ 
 source available against the common enemy of mankind that 
 must bring satisfaction to every loyal citizen. In his Flag 
 Day address, President Wilson has given us a trenchant state¬ 
 ment of our case which every American should read. Of 
 the “Military Masters of Germany” he says: 
 
 “They filled our unsuspecting communities with vicious 
 spies and conspirators and sought to corrupt the opinion of 
 our people in their own behalf. When they found they 
 could not do that, their agents diligently spread sedition 
 amongst us and sought to draw our own citizens from their 
 allegiance—and some of these agents were men connected 
 with the official embassy of the German government itself 
 here in our own Capitol. They sought by violence to destroy 
 our industry and arrest our commerce. They tried to incite 
 Mexico to take up arms against us and to draw Japan into a 
 hostile alliance with her—and that not by indirection, but by 
 direct suggestion from the Foreign Office in Berlin. They 
 impudently denied us the use of the high seas and repeat¬ 
 edly executed their threats that they would send to their 
 death any of our people who ventured to approach the coasts 
 of Europe.” 
 
 It might be added that for many years before the war 
 Germany labored diligently through the medium of the de¬ 
 partments of German in our American universities to for¬ 
 ward the Kultur propaganda, enjoining upon American citi¬ 
 zens of German ancestry the continued use of the German 
 language and the retention of German ideals and connections. 
 In each of our Middle Western state universities a professor 
 has been the recognized state head of this “missionary move¬ 
 ment.” As the protecting cloak of the church has often cov¬ 
 ered a culprit, so in Michigan the aegis of a well-known 
 
 5 
 
patriotic organization has been extensively used to promote 
 the movement for “Deutschland Ueber Alles.” Federal laws 
 to meet adequately the dangers of espionage and sedition 
 have been lacking in this country, as was demonstrated dur¬ 
 ing the dynamite outrages of the first years of war particu¬ 
 larly, and I am informed by one in a position to know that 
 bills which before the war had repeatedly been introduced 
 into the National Congress, in order to remedy this defect, 
 were defeated in committee through German influence. It is 
 only in the last few weeks that this legislation has at last 
 been secured. 
 
 The amount of treasure devoted by Germany to prepara¬ 
 tions for her assault have been little comprehended in this 
 country. I have been told by a well-known military expert 
 long resident in Berlin, where he was in intimate associa¬ 
 tion with the German Great General Staff, that at the out¬ 
 break of war Germany had ready complete equipment for no 
 less than thirty millions of soldiers. Highly trained officers, 
 the lack of which in sufficient numbers has proved such a 
 handicap to the Entente Allies, were available in Germany 
 not alone to supply her own armies and to replace the wast¬ 
 age of war, but sufficient to officer to a large extent the 
 armies of Turkey and Bulgaria, and to some extent also 
 those of Austro-Hungary. 
 
 The Kriegsbuch. 
 
 The unscrupulous use of deception and intrigue, in com¬ 
 bination with an inhuman barbarity, is what experts have 
 called “absolute war." A reading of the Kriegsbuch, or Offi¬ 
 cial Manual, prepared for the use of officers of the German 
 army, helps us to understand why the German soldiers en¬ 
 tered Belgium supplied as a part of their regular equipment 
 with ingenious devices for efficient incendiarism and pillage: 
 
 “A war conducted with energy,” declares the Kriegs¬ 
 buch, “cannot be directed merely against combatants of the 
 enemy state and the positions they occupy, but it will in 
 like manner seek to destroy the total intellectual and mate¬ 
 rial resources of the latter. . . . 
 
 “By steeping himself in military history, an officer will 
 be able to guard himself against excessive humanitarian no¬ 
 tions; it will teach him that certain severities are indispens¬ 
 able to war, nay more, that the only true humanity very 
 often lies in a ruthless application of them.” 
 
 6 
 
To apply Nietzsche’s expression, “the blond beast lustfully 
 roving” on its passage through Belgium obeyed to the letter 
 this course of instruction, reinforced by the Kaiser’s parting 
 injunction to the German Expeditionary Force of the Boxer 
 Rebellion: “Let all who fall into your hands be at your 
 mercy. Just as the Huns a thousand years ago under the 
 leadership of Attila, gained a reputation in virtue of which 
 they still live in historical tradition, so may the name of Ger¬ 
 many become known in such wise in China that no China¬ 
 man will ever even dare to look askance at a German.” 
 
 To influence public opinion, nearly one hundred of the 
 most distinguished German scientists drew up and signed a 
 declaration addressed “to the civilized world,” in which, 
 among other statements, these are given prominence: “It is 
 not true that Germany is guilty of having caused this war. 
 
 . . . It is not true that the life and property of a single 
 
 Belgian citizen was injured by our soldiers without the bit¬ 
 terest self-defense having made it necessary. ... It is 
 not true that our troops treated Louvain brutally. ... It 
 is not true that our warfare pays no respect to international 
 laws.” 
 
 In these false declarations by German scientists whose 
 names are many of them household words—declarations 
 which have never been withdrawn—German science has met 
 the greatest downfall in her history, and never before had 
 she attained to so high a position in the world. 
 
 As we now survey in all its hideous nakedness the Ger¬ 
 man plan of conquest, we are surprised that the world has 
 been so blind as not to see what is in such clear light today. 
 It is, however, but an illustration of the strong tendency 
 on the part of our God-fearing and peacefully inclined peo¬ 
 ple to judge the motives of others in accord with their own, 
 and in their strongly developed optimism to believe that 
 only which is pleasant and agreeable. In France, the medi¬ 
 tated attack by Germany was nearer. It had for years hung 
 over the land like a horrid nightmare and the blow was 
 awaited with a dread that the crushing defeat of 1870 was 
 to be repeated. England, more under the influence of the 
 professional pacifist and behind a moat of sea, responded 
 hardly at all when Earl Roberts sounded the clarion call to 
 arms before it should be too late, and America has long been 
 under the spell of its orators of pacifism, notably Bryan and 
 Jordan. 
 
 7 
 
Plan Revealed. 
 
 I o one not obsessed by these vagaries, the impending 
 conflict was clearly revealed in all its main outlines. In or¬ 
 der to galvanize the German people for the ordeal which 
 was before them, the German government thought it well to 
 more than hint that “world domination or downfall" spelled 
 the future of the German Empire. General Bernhardi of 
 the German General Staff brought out his brutally frank 
 “Germany and the Next War." which was issued with every 
 encouragement of the government and ran through numerous 
 German editions. The philosophy of Nietzsche, which glori¬ 
 fied barbaric war and the savage superman and ridiculed the 
 precepts of the Christian religion, was developed in Germany 
 as a special cult. Homer Lea's “The Day of the Saxon,” 
 which in clear outlines set forth Germany's plan of conquest 
 of Great Britain and showed its entire feasibility, was at 
 once translated into German, and its large sale was appar¬ 
 ently fostered by the Imperial Government. 
 
 Sig. Giolotti has made public how in 1912 the German 
 ambassador von Wagenheim at Constantinople confided to his 
 colleague, Marquis Garroni, the Italian ambassador, the out¬ 
 lines of the German scheme of conquest, the Italian ambas¬ 
 sador being known to be a strong defender of the Triple Al¬ 
 liance. In the same year, I was myself in Budapest as the 
 guest of an Hungarian nobleman, in consequence of having 
 been invited to address the Hungarian Geographical Society. 
 My host, who was in close touch with his government and 
 who has since been killed in the war, did not hesitate to in¬ 
 form me that as soon as practicable after the conclusion of 
 the Balkan war of that year, Austro-Hungary would take 
 upon herself the punishment of Servia. My intimation that 
 such action could hardly fail to ignite the European confla¬ 
 gration was acknowledged as though it were well understood. 
 He also gave me the information, which I afterwards con¬ 
 firmed, that the Austrian army was then largely mob¬ 
 ilized and that two army corps were operating upon the 
 French border with the German army. This mobilization has 
 since taken on the aspect of a dress rehearsal of the present 
 war, for it will perhaps be remembered that two Austrian 
 army corps, and only two. took part in the early operations 
 on the Western battle front. 
 
 If I have made clear that the present war is the result 
 of a premeditated attack by the German government upon 
 
 8 
 
her European neighbors and was planned as part of an even 
 larger scheme of conquest, to what extent were the German 
 people responsible for this supreme crime of history? This 
 question is vital and is difficult to answer by one not famil¬ 
 iar with the conditions of German life and with the absolute 
 monarchy which there lurks behind the framework of popu¬ 
 lar government. In 1888-9, a student at a German university 
 and a frequent visitor since that time, I have been much im¬ 
 pressed, as every traveller must be, by the submissive attitude 
 of the German people and the absolute obedience to the last 
 letter of the law which is continually exacted from them. 
 The form of government, which the scheme of Bismarck pro¬ 
 vided for Germany, permitted a limited amount of criticism 
 and such social legislation as was not too offensive to the Im¬ 
 perial Government, but no responsible ministry and a parlia¬ 
 ment over which the Kaiser exercises an absolute veto. As 
 is well known, Bismarck ruled Prussia for four years with¬ 
 out a parliament, and the Government’s treatment of the 
 resolution of the Reichstag following the notorious Zabern 
 scandal shows that such a suspension of parliamentary gov¬ 
 ernment might easily arise in Germany. As the Kaiser has 
 bluntly expressed it, ‘‘The soldier and the army and not Par¬ 
 liamentary majorities and resolutions have welded together 
 the German Empire." And, “Regarding myself as the tool of 
 God, and without consideration of the notions and opinions 
 of the day, I go my way.” Submission to authority has thus 
 become the alpha and omega of existence throughout the 
 German Empire. 
 
 The Task Ahead. 
 
 If democracy is not to perish from the earth, it is clear 
 that we must bend every effort to defeat decisively the auto¬ 
 crats in government now~ leagued together as the Central 
 Powers and absolutely dominated by Germany. How sorely 
 this will tax our courage and our resources we as yet hardly 
 realize. Every long war has passed through the three suc¬ 
 cessive stages of the onset, the grip and the drag. Where 
 there is great superiority of available military power massed 
 upon one side, the decision has sometimes been reached in 
 the onset, as in the Austro-Prussian War of 1866. We have 
 reason to believe that Germany expected to crush France in 
 this initial phase, but, after the German armies had recoiled 
 from the Marne and from before Calais, the grip of war 
 
 9 
 
may be said to have begun, when Russia and France, and 
 later Britain and Italy, brought their full forces into action. 
 Those forces have now reached their maximum, and the try¬ 
 ing test of endurance which constitutes the drag of war is 
 already upon us. The war will be decided in favor of the 
 group of powers which can longest supply the sinews of war 
 —the money, munitions and men. Of the first, we have 
 already made a large contribution and are prepared to follow 
 it by others; of munitions our contribution has been consider¬ 
 able, and of men it is as yet altogether insignificant. 
 
 Our first effective assistance to our allies, if we except 
 our loans of money, has been made through our navy, sev¬ 
 eral sections of modern destroyers being already in opera¬ 
 tion against submarines in British waters. For all that the 
 public may know, a squadron of our modern dreadnoughts 
 may already be in a strategic position in support of the plans 
 of the British Admiralty. Our base hospitals and ambulance 
 corps are beginning to make their appearance in Europe to 
 relieve the great strain upon those of our allies, and our 
 taking over of the contracts for neutral ships under construc¬ 
 tion in American yards, in connection with the embargo 
 placed upon food products, together constitute the first really 
 effective blockade of Germany. 
 
 Our greatest early opportunity to render efficient military 
 aid at the battle front, must, however, be a supply of aero¬ 
 plane squadrons, since these can be more quickly improvised 
 by a nation which leads the world in the manufacture of 
 automobiles, and whose citizens are by temperament espe¬ 
 cially fitted for supreme demands upon individual initiative 
 and resourcefulness. Mr. Howard Coffin, a graduate of the 
 University of Michigan, and Detroit’s distinguished represen¬ 
 tative upon the Advisory Board to the National Defense 
 Council, has outlined plans to have the government furnish a 
 thousand flyers a month with the first contingent ready to 
 depart in September. Our early entry into the war in the 
 field of aviation may contribute both to reduce the submarine 
 menace and to effectually blind the enemy in his land opera¬ 
 tions at the battle front. Upon the authority of Mr. Coffin, 
 it is further the purpose of our government to supply 
 American railway engineers in sufficient numbers to take 
 over the operation of the French railways and so, in some 
 measure, to relieve the terrible strain upon our sister republic. 
 Ten thousand railway engineers are already in uniform and 
 
 10 
 
will be sent to France at the earliest opportunity. The 
 Trans-Siberian Railway, the great artery for supplying the 
 Russian armies, now clogged and incapable of moving the 
 mountains of munitions which have accumulated at Vladivos- 
 tock, is likewise to be operated by American engineers as an 
 American railway at the earliest possible moment. The na¬ 
 tion may well take heart when men like Mr. Coffin and those 
 associated with him in the Advisory Board to the Council of 
 National Defense are giving up their entire time in a devoted 
 effort to achieve the utmost in this supreme crisis. 
 
 Though our assistance in other fields cannot be made im¬ 
 mediately available, it must none the less be most vigorously 
 pushed in order to become available at all. Here, the ship¬ 
 building emergency stands first in importance and the food 
 supply second; since not only food, but coal, steel, and oil, 
 must be supplied to our allies at the earliest moment, and 
 the movement of troops will eventually require the continu¬ 
 ous use of an immense fleet of transports. Those who have 
 followed carefully the shipping situation in this country have 
 not been deceived by the controversy which has arisen, and 
 they must be fully aware that in the plan of General Goe- 
 thals both wooden and steel ships are to be built to the full 
 capacity of the country. 
 
 The Food Problem. 
 
 We have upon us now the heavy burden of feeding, not 
 only ourselves, but in large measure the Western European 
 nations as well. Here, patriotism counsels that we should not 
 even consider the profits to ourselves, but should put forth 
 our utmost efforts so as to increase to the limit the world’s 
 supply of food. The best that we can do will be all too lit¬ 
 tle, and if the government is able to manage the problem of 
 transportation, as it must, it need not be feared that prices 
 will anywhere fall below the normal. There is every reason 
 to suppose that they will soar even higher. 
 
 There is evidence that under cover of supposed war con¬ 
 ditions, unscrupulous persons have succeeded in establishing 
 artificial prices for some of the necessities of life. It is 
 therefore imperative that the government, with the least pos¬ 
 sible delay, assume control of market conditions upon the 
 basis of thorough investigation and with the exercise of 
 somewhat arbitrary powers. Let us not make the mistake 
 
 11 
 
of England in assuming that the war is to be quickly ended, 
 and in delaying to take as war measures only such drastic 
 action as alone can avert disaster. Let us echo the slogan 
 that no one is to make profits out of the war. 
 
 Not only must we increase production, but we must con¬ 
 serve supply through prevention of waste. It has been said, 
 I think correctly, that the average French family can live on 
 what the average American family habitually wastes. Much 
 of the waste of our hotel and other public dining-rooms is 
 due largely to false standards which have grown up and be¬ 
 come fixed by habit. A well-known millionaire merchant has 
 recently voiced his protest against some of the glaring ex¬ 
 travagances of our more expensive hostelries. The Delaware, 
 Lackawanna & Western Railroad has now for some time 
 served smaller and so-called “war portions” of food in its 
 dining cars. May other roads follow this excellent example. 
 
 The above are some of the steps which we must take, 
 some of which our government has already wisely taken, in 
 order to come to the aid of our allies. The chief menaces to 
 the cause of democracy today, as a result of the war, are the 
 submarine and the unsettled condition of Russia. The for¬ 
 mer we must endeavor to meet both by destroying the sub¬ 
 marines themselves and by building ships so rapidly that, even 
 if our attempts to overcome the submarine should be but 
 partially successful, we may still be able to convey the neces¬ 
 sary supplies to England, France and Italy. 
 
 As regards Russia, she appears now to have passed 
 through the most dangerous stage of her revolution, in that 
 the immediate menace of a separate peace has been removed. 
 I am basing my judgment in part only upon the censorized 
 reports from Petrograd, but far more upon the bitter disap¬ 
 pointment which is now clearly reflected in the German press 
 No one who has traveled in Russia can have overlooked the 
 fact that the nation is essentially agricultural and that sol¬ 
 diers are mainly drawn from the peasant class. The indus¬ 
 trial classes, which are now joyriding with liberty and have 
 been skilfully deluded by Germany’s agents, form but a rela¬ 
 tively small section of the people, and their localization in 
 and about the centre of government has accounted for the 
 important role which they have thus far been able to play. 
 This importance has steadily declined as the voice of the 
 great Russian peasantry has become articulate. The peasants 
 and the soldiers, as well as the responsible business men, are 
 
 12 
 
now united for a continuation of the war, and the early 
 stages of the new government having now been passed, one 
 may survey the future with less of apprehension. The ad¬ 
 mirable message to Russia of President Wilson, the arrival 
 of the Root and the Stevens Commissions, and the consider¬ 
 able leaven of Russians, educated in self-government, who are 
 now returning to their former homes from this country, must 
 all weigh heavily in the balance on the side of a stable gov¬ 
 ernment. The successful drive in Galacia, led personally by 
 that great War Minister, Kerensky, assures us that the repub¬ 
 lican army is really to play a role in the campaign, even of 
 the present season. 
 
 Pitfalls in the Path. 
 
 There are pitfalls in the path of democracy against 
 which it is necessary continually to guard, pitfalls which have 
 been dug, or will be in the future, through the machinations 
 of the German autocracy. Most dangerous among these are, 
 first, the allurements of the outwardly humanitarian idea of a 
 ‘‘peace without victory,” and, second, the powers which may 
 be in hiding behind any future overturn of the German gov¬ 
 ernment. The danger of the former is less than it was, now 
 that the world has been the spectator of a futile demonstra¬ 
 tion in which the American government for the time played 
 the hand of Germany and echoed her cries for a “peace with¬ 
 out victory” and “freedom of the seas.” 
 
 It should be sufficient for us to remember that a century 
 ago, when the world was, as now, in arms against an auto¬ 
 cratic scheme for military conquest, a “peace without vic¬ 
 tory” was duly signed with Napoleon at Amiens, which 
 proved to be for him a convenient breathing spell, and that 
 the war was resumed after little more than a year of peace, 
 so that he rose at that time to his greatest power, and it was 
 only twelve years later that he was decisively defeated upon 
 the field of Waterloo. 
 
 We are in danger of focusing our attention too much 
 upon the hardships of Germany and to the evidences of dis¬ 
 content among her people, in the vain hope that she will 
 soon be compelled to sue for peace. While it is easy to be¬ 
 lieve that she is already in great distress, it is only neces¬ 
 sary to reflect upon the huge penalties which must inevitably 
 be exacted from her for her wild riot of destruction, to be 
 convinced that she will continue the fight to the last extrem- 
 
 13 
 
ity. Her people have been fed so largely upon reports of 
 victories, “retreats to victory,” and upon the invincibility of 
 Hindenburg and the Kaiser that they are likely to be even 
 now far removed from a correct understanding of the real 
 state of affairs. Then, too, the security which the German 
 government has offered for the many loans to finance the 
 war is now nothing more than the hope of indemnity to be 
 exacted from Germany’s enemies. With her foreign com¬ 
 merce on which she is so dependent already taken from her, 
 with foreign nations more and more independent of her ex¬ 
 ports and leagued together for mutual trade relations after 
 the war, with a large proportion of her merchant fleet either 
 destroyed or seized and operated by the allies, the govern¬ 
 ment can still lead the people to continue the war in a last 
 desperate hope that the tide will yet turn in their favor. 
 
 However strong may be the demand for peace at what¬ 
 ever price, the German government cannot be forced to yield 
 to the popular demands so long as the army remains unaf¬ 
 fected, for the German army, as the Kaiser has told us, is 
 the bulwark of his Empire. When such disaffection becomes 
 serious, as at some time it must, the military caste will play 
 its last desperate card and stage an overturn to a popular 
 government which can still be controlled from behind the 
 scenes. 
 
 Peace Guarantees. 
 
 Whether such a stroke can be driven home is for the 
 future to determine, but the allied governments cannot afford 
 to conclude a peace without guarantees of a practical nature 
 that the terms of the surrender will be rigorously adhered to. 
 More than once in the history of the Hohenzollerns (as of 
 the Hapsburgs) solemn treaties have been shown to be in 
 their estimation only “scraps of paper” to be torn up under 
 the urgency of military necessity or even of personal con¬ 
 venience. As Frederick William IV is said to have remarked 
 in 1847, when repudiating his pledge to grant a parliament 
 to the Prussian people, “I will never let a sheet of written 
 paper come between our Lord God in Heaven and our coun¬ 
 try, to rule us with its paragraphs and to put them in the 
 place of ancient loyalty.” 
 
 There is now little merit in our saying that, had we 
 earlier entered upon our duties in this great struggle, the 
 outlook for democracy must have been far brighter than it is. 
 
 14 
 
/ 
 
 The fact is that we have but just come in, and it is for us 
 to so play our part that we may redeem the past in so far as 
 that is now possible. Even now, the country is not fully 
 awake to the situation, but, thank God, it is rapidly awaken¬ 
 ing. It is my firm conviction that, once thoroughly aroused, 
 America will do honor to her noblest traditions and will pa¬ 
 tiently undergo even the greatest sacrifices; for whether dem¬ 
 ocracy or autocracy is to win, it is now for us to determine. 
 
 Can we descry upon the horizon a permanent peace 
 such as we all earnestly long for, and which we will yearn 
 after with ever-increasing longings as the weary months and 
 probably years of war drag on? We should be honest with 
 ourselves and admit that belief in such a happy outcome, if 
 we entertain it, is nothing more substantial than the visualiz¬ 
 ing of our hopes, and that neither history nor sound logic 
 supplies any warrant for such faith. Let us not deceive our¬ 
 selves, but rather, taking counsel from past disappointments, 
 let us see to it that the future is made safe for democracy 
 through such permanent military preparations as will permit 
 us again to devote ourselves to the arts of peace while ever 
 ready to play in the world that noble part of which our past 
 record has supplied the promise. 
 
 15 
 
UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS-URBANA 
 
 3 01 
 
 12 099014372 
 
 THE NATIONAL SECURITY LEAGUE 
 
 is a non-political, non-partisan league of American men and women 
 who are earnestly working to secure adequate national defense from 
 
 Congress. THE LEAGUE IS ALSO DOING AN EFFECTIVE WORK 
 IN PROMOTING PATRIOTIC EDUCATION AND UNIVERSAL 
 MILITARY TRAINING AND SERVICE. 
 
 Honorary President —Joseph H. Choate, New York. 
 
 [Note —Mr. Choate occupied the position of Honorary President from the date of the 
 organization of the League until his death, May 14, 1917.] 
 
 Honorary Vice-President— Alton B. Parker, New York. 
 Presidents. Stan wood Menken, New York. 
 
 Vice-Presidents —George Wharton Pepper, Philadelphia. 
 
 George von L. Meyer, Boston. 
 
 Willet M. Spooner, Milwaukee. 
 
 Luke E. Wright, Memphis. 
 
 Frederic L. Huidekoper, Washington. 
 Franklin Q. Brown, New York. 
 
 Secretary —Herbert Barry, New York. 
 
 Treasurer —Edward H. Clark, New York. 
 
 Chairman, Board of Directors— Charles E. Lydecker, New York. 
 Chairman , Finance Committee —Franklin Q. Brown, New York. 
 Executive Secretary— Henry L. WEST, Washington. 
 
 The National Security League is supported by 
 small contributions of the public. It is not endowed 
 and finds that the work of raising sufficient funds 
 for the distribution of its literature is a matter of 
 most serious difficulty. 
 
 All those who believe in forwarding its work 
 are earnestly urged to support it and aid in secur¬ 
 ing new members.