630.7 I6b no. 683 cop. 8 UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS LIBRARY AT URBANA-CHAMPAIGN AGRICULTURE ctlC Effects of Fertilizer Progr on the ECONOMIC CHOICE OF CROPS in Selected Areas of Illinois M. F. Jordan and C. B. Baker Bulletin 683 University of Illinois Agricultural Experiment Station CONTENTS Economics of Crop Selection 3 Production Characteristics of the Areas 7 The Present Survey 10 Analytic Model 13 Interpretation of Results 18 Interpretation of Substitution Relationships 26 Summary and Conclusions 32 Appendix Tables 34 Urbana, Illinois April, 1962 Publications in the Bulletin series report the results of investigations made or sponsored by the Experiment Station Effects of Fertilizer Programs on the Economic Choice of Crops in Selected Areas of Illinois M. F. JORDAN and C. B. BAKER' BETWEEN 1950 AND 1958, SOYBEAN ACREAGE INCREASED BY MORE than 30 percent in the cash-grain area of east-central Illinois (State Economic Area 6b), and by more than 10 percent in south- central Illinois (State Economic Area 8). (See Table 1.) Acreage in wheat increased by an even larger percentage in both areas, while de- creases occurred in oats, hay, and corn. In these same years, there were changes in the price of livestock and crops, as well as in the technology of production. This bulletin reports the result of research in these areas to determine the effects on crop selection of changes in fertilizer programs. An outline of the essential economics of crop selection provides the basis for interpreting the results. ECONOMICS OF CROP SELECTION A farmer's selection of crops depends mainly on two factors: the natural and technical resources available for cultivation, and the fi- nancial returns from their sale or use. The farmer's basic economics of choice may be conveniently schematized (see Fig. 2). From a given input of land, labor, and fixed capital applied to produce crop A, a maximum Oa might be produced. By shifting all resources to crop B, Ob could be produced. The curve connecting these two points repre- sents combinations of A and B that can be produced with fixed re- sources. The fact that it rises as it leaves the vertical axis indicates that, by producing crop B over a small range of production, crop A is so benefited that its production actually increases. Such a relation is "complementary": B complements A over this range. Thereafter, producing more of B requires a reduction in A. Thus B is said to compete with A over a wide range of production. Since crop produc- tion is subject to the "law of diminishing returns" with respect to most 1 M. F. Jordan, Agricultural Economist, Econ. Res. Serv., U.S. Dept. Agr., Fayetteville, Ark.; C. B. Baker, Professor of Agricultural Economics, Univ. of 111. D. B. Ibach, Agricultural Economist, Econ. Res. Serv., U.S. Dept. Agr., Wash., D.C., assisted in making arrangements for the federal-state cooperation involved and in developing the general plan of the research. BULLETIN NO. 683 [April, Illinois state economic areas. Metropolitan areas shown as shaded areas. (Fig. 1) Table 1. Relative Changes in Acreages of Principal Crops in Illinois Economic Areas 6b and 8, 1950-1958* Crop Area 6b 1958 Change 1950-58 Area 8 1958 Change 1950-58 Corn (acres) 1,814,600 (percentage) -1.90 (acres) 314,500 (percentage) -8.55 Soybeans 1,383,500 +32.49 392,200 + 10.39 Wheat . . 255,600 +82 05 164,500 + 153.85 Oats 573,000 -38 18 16,500 -79.71 Hay.. 306,500 -14 12 134,700 -24.62 Illinois Cooperative Crop Reporting Service, ///. Agr. Stat. Annual Summary Bulletins 51-1 and 59-1. I962J ECONOMIC CHOICE OF CROPS a* PRODUCTION POSSIBILITIES b* CROP B A schematization of the economics of choice. (Fig. 2) resources, the usual relation expected between crops is one of competi- tion. The curve described above represents the response of two crops to an input of a fixed quantity of resources that can be allocated be- tween the two crops. Revenue generated by producing crop A, crop B, or combinations of the two, is defined as R. To earn R (a given amount of revenue) by producing A alone would require producing A in an amount equal to R divided by the price of A (R/P A ). Comparably, R/P B would be required of crop B to produce the same revenue (R). R can- not, in this example, be earned from either crop alone. But the combi- nation of A (at Oa*) and B (at Ob*) does yield a revenue equal to R. In fact, it is the only combination that does yield so large an income. All points on the line connecting R/P B and R/P A represent combi- nations of crops B and A that earn the same returns. The slope of the line represents the rate at which one crop substitutes for the other in terms of income. All points on the curve connecting Oa and Ob repre- sent combinations of crops A and B that can be produced with the available resources. The particular combination of Oa* and Ob* of 6 BULLETIN NO. 683 [April, crops A and B, respectively, maximizes returns above the cost of these fixed resources. Some resources are not allocable between crops. For example, crop seed, some harvesting equipment, etc., are specific to one crop or the other. To take the cost of these specific resources into account, the crop price can be reduced by their cost per unit of crop production. The result is a revenue per unit of output, above the cost of resources specific to the crop. The slope of the revenue line in Fig. 2 will be changed if the cost of such resources differs between crops. Hence, the combination of crops that maximizes returns also would be different: the optimum combination would shift toward the crop in which the specific costs are relatively less. Each crop has certain specific nutrient requirements. Fertilizer ap- plications also change the productivity of fixed resources. Therefore, the application of fertilizer affects the slope of both the revenue line (adjusted to account for the cost of specific resources) and the pro- duction possibility curve as well. Differences between areas in the shift of production possibility curves may have significant implications. The advantage of farmers on good soils may increase or decrease relative to farmers on poor soils depending on production opportunities changed by fertilizer programs in each area. Consequences of these changes in the competitive posi- tions of farmers in relatively large geographic areas may have important influence on regional specialization. Linear programming models were used to estimate the effect on crop selection of changes that have occurred in fertilizer use. The models were also used to specify cropping alternatives in each area in 1954 and 1958, together with resources available to farmers typical of each area in these years. They then were used to select crop combi- nations which would maximize income in 1954 and 1958 when the cost of specific resources are subtracted from the price of crops. Then the prices of crops were varied and new estimates were made. From a series of such estimates it was possible to infer changes in character- istics of the production possibility relations among crops. Since esti- mates were desired that could be ascribed to changes in the fertilizer programs, an attempt was made to account for the effects of changes in non fertilizer inputs over time. The primary changes were weather and mechanization. Before developing the analytic models in greater detail, we shall thus want to describe the areas, the data used, and the method of accounting for nonfertilizer sources of change in crop yields. 19627 ECONOMIC CHOICE OF CROPS 7 PRODUCTION CHARACTERISTICS OF THE AREAS The east-central and south-central areas of Illinois which are under consideration in this study represent two types of farming areas that differ as to soil productivity, soil management, and cropping programs. These areas are shown on the map in Fig. 3. The east-central area has been for some time a highly productive cash-grain area, with a large proportion of its crop produced for market. The south-central area is a less productive farming area in which the agriculture has been classed as mixed or general farming. More recently, however, it has been shifting to a cash-grain area. 1 East-central Illinois Climate. Annual precipitation in east-central Illinois averages ap- proximately 36 inches, with 55 to 60 percent occurring in the 170- to 180-day growing season. 2 Annual precipitation decreases from south to north in Illinois, though between the east-central and south-central areas the difference is mainly in greater winter precipitation in the south. Mean July temperatures average 75.3 F., and mean January tem- peratures 26.8 . 3 At Urbana, in Champaign County, the average date of the last killing frost in the spring is April 21, and the average date of the first frost is October 19. 4 Relative soil temperature also influences the crops that can be pro- duced successfully in an area. Soil temperature, as well as air tempera- ture, is an important factor in determining rate of plant growth and biological activity in the soil. Soil temperature may vary according to moisture conditions, color, compactness of the soil, the angle of ex- posure of the soil surface to sun rays, and vegetative or surface cover. The dark soils of central Illinois are more adequately drained and are warmer than those light-colored poorly drained soils of the claypan area. Thus, soil temperature, as well as air temperature and precipita- tion, may be said to have considerable influence on the cropping alternatives. Soils in the east-central area are dark-colored prairie soils, underlain with medium-textured, moderately permeable subsoils. In general these 1 See Table 2. On many southern Illinois farms the portion of the gross sales attributable to cash crop has increased at a rate greater than that of the gross sales attributable to livestock. 1 Page, J. L., Climate of Illinois, 111. Agr. Exp. Sta. Bui. 532, 1949, p. 138. ' Ibid., p. 156, average at Urbana in Champaign County, 1889 to 1946. 4 Ibid., p. 128. BULLETIN NO. 683 [April, Location of economic areas and townships in the present survey. (Fig. 3) soils developed from silty wind-blown loess. 1 The topography is level or gently sloping. The soils on the steeper slopes were developed from permeable glacial till rather than from loess. The soils of this east- central area are among the most productive in Illinois, and the major soil problems are mainly those of drainage and the proper maintenance of good physical condition. Many of these soils have tile drainage systems which function well in normal years. The drouth resistance of these soils is very good since conditions favor extensive root development. Markets. Producers of grain, the main product of east-central Illinois agriculture, enjoy several market alternatives. Grain may be surrendered on Commodity Credit Corporation loan and purchase 'Wascher, H. L., et al. Illinois Soil Type Description, 111. Agr. Exp. Sta. AG-1433, 1950, p. 175. 1 9621 ECONOMIC CHOICE OF CROPS 9 agreements, sold to other farmers, small feed mills, and truckers, or handled by country elevators. Most of the grain produced finds it way through the country elevators to terminal markets, and interior processors. 1 Receipts in 1954-55 suggest that St. Louis and Peoria are the lead- ing markets for east-central Illinois corn. St. Louis was the most important wheat market, handling nearly 50 percent of the production. Soybeans are processed at plants near production points. Decatur and other central Illinois processing points handle most of the soybeans. Oats from the area go to Chicago and St. Louis in about equal amounts with a considerable portion going by truck to Indiana and southern states. Grain prices at St. Louis and Chicago are closely related, especially those for corn and oats. Both markets draw corn and oats at the same freight rates from the east-central area surpluses. South-central Illinois Climate. Annual precipitation in the south-central Illinois area averages approximately 40 inches, 50 to 55 percent occurring in the 180- to 190-day growing season. 2 Precipitation distribution through- out the growing season is especially critical on the soils of the area, as the following section will reveal. Mean July temperatures average 79.8, and mean January tempera- tures average 32.3 . 3 At Flora, in Clay County, the average date of the last killing frost in the spring is April 17 and the average date of the first frost is October 19. 4 Soils in the south-central area are medium to light-colored prairie soils with very fine textured, very thin loess on weathered drift. The silt loam surface and subsurface soil is approximately 18 to 20 inches in depth, underlain with a gray mottled, heavy silty clay loam subsoil. Slow water penetration of this tight subsoil makes tiling impractical and excess water must be removed by open ditches. The topography is very gently sloping with slopes of 0.5 to 1.5 percent. 5 Evaporation is quite rapid from these soils, and, because of the shallow root systems developed by plants as a result of the tight subsoil, there is considerable damage to the crops during periods of drouth. Crops on these soils will 1 Schumaier, C. P., Illinois Grain Production and Trade, 111. Agr. Exp. Sta. Bui. 637, 1959, p. 28. 1 Page, J. L., op. cit., p. 138. Ibid., p. 159, 4 Ibid., p. 128. 8 Wascher, H. L., et al., op. cit., p. 44. 10 BULLETIN NO. 683 [April, suffer severely from a deficiency of moisture after 10 or 15 rainless days. 1 At the other weather extreme, with inadequate drainage, water may stand on some land for several days after a heavy rainfall. There- fore, because of the critical soil moisture problem, timeliness of opera- tions is extremely important for successful crop production. These soils are usually lacking in natural fertility, attributable partly to the water problem, intensity of weathering, and decline of organic matter. Markets. The grain markets for south-central Illinois are similar, and in some cases identical, to those of the east-central area. Expan- sion of the cash-grain area southward is apparent in the data on south- central Illinois grain markets. The volume of grain sold in the area in 1949-53 increased 2y 2 times over that sold in 1939-1943. 2 Country elevators handle most of the off-farm sales of grain, with disposition similar to that of grains in the east-central area. The St. Louis terminal market and shipments to southern points account for most of the movements of corn from the country elevators. Consid- erable corn moves southward from the area by truck. Most of the wheat handled by country elevators moves to St. Louis. Some soybeans move to St. Louis from elevators in the southern area, but most of the soybeans go to Decatur and other Illinois processors. Oat production in the area is limited largely to winter oats and little is sold off-farm. Most of the off -farm sales are to truckers supplying southern Indiana and certain southern states. THE PRESENT SURVEY Selection of samples The primary data for this study were obtained in a field survey of the economic areas indicated in Fig. 3. Congressional townships dom- inated by single soil associations were selected from a state soil asso- ciation map. Flanagan soils dominate townships selected in the east- central area; Cisne soils, in the south-central area. Sections were selected randomly from the townships. All farms were visited that had fields in the sampled sections. The survey The survey was conducted from July 22 to October 31, 1958, the majority of the interviews being made during August and September. 1 Cross, A. J., and Willis, J. E., Organization and Operation of Farms in the Claypan Area of Southern Illinois, 111. Agr. Exp. Sta. Bui. 579, 1954, p. 4. * Schumaier, C. P., op. cit., p. 25. 1962; ECONOMIC CHOICE OF CROPS 11 Table 2. Selected Statistics From Field Schedules: Flanagan and Cisne Soil Areas Item Fla y Cisne soil Average age of operator 46 9 45 9 Average number of years on present farm unit 17.8 14.7 Average number of years of farm experience 22.2 19.8 Average number of farm tracts operated 1.7 2.0 Average acreage of cropland owned 135 89.2 Average acreage of cropland share rented by renters 205.3 121.3 Average acreage of cropland operated 214.4 148.1 Average acreage of all land owned 144.5 109.3 Percentage of units all owned 31.7 69.2 Average acreage of all land operated 230.7 175.8 Average acreage of all land share rented 220.8 142.4 Share of all crops to landlord (mode) Percentage of crop share agreements in modal class 83.3 72.6 Percentage of fertilizer share agreements in modal class 82.5 59.5 Percentage of rental tracts consisting of a single tract 60.8 59.3 Percentage of rental tracts consisting of 2 tracts 25.5 22.2 Percentage of farms with family labor equivalent to 1 full-time operator 58.3 66.7 Percentage of farms reporting hired labor 21.7 12.8 Percentage of all farms reporting 1 full-time hired hand 8.3 5.1 Average number of months of hired labor on farms reporting it . Percentage of farms reporting operator working off farm more than 100 days per year 9.0 8.3 6.0 15.4 One hundred and eighty two completed schedules were obtained in the two areas, of which 96 were on the Flanagan soils and 86 on Cisne soils. The schedule was designed to obtain resource inventories for the farm business and cropping history of all fields. Some of the personal characteristics of farmers, their tenure situa- tion, and labor supply are summarized in Table 2. The proportions of farms reporting livestock, and the mean numbers of livestock per re- porting farm for 1958, were quite low in both areas. (See Table 3.) A comparison of crop machinery inventories shows that machines found on farms in the east-central area were of larger machine-unit capacity than those in the southern area. For example, the average combine in the Flanagan area had a 9- foot cutter-bar, while the mean length cutter-bar in the Cisne area was 6 feet. This same general size relationship was found in corn-picker capacity as well as planter and cultivator widths. About 88 percent of the farms in the east-central area reported some four-row equipment, while in the southern area only 31 percent reported one or more pieces of four- row equipment. 12 BULLETIN NO. 683 [April, Table 3. Proportion of Farms Reporting Livestock and Mean Numbers, by Type of Livestock and Area, July 1, 1958. Summary of all Farms Surveyed East -central area South-central area Type of livestock Percent of farms reporting Average number of livestock reported Percent of farms reporting Average number of livestock reported Dairy cows 23.3 2.5 10.3 9.3 15.5 400 46.6 84 82 82 59 35.9 51.3 53.8 2.5 7.6 10.3 41.1 25.7 9.6 6.4 7.9 10.7 5.2 20 566 13 38 35 10 15 Beef cows 49.2 Mature swine 37.3 Sheep 13.6 Poultry flocks 1.6 Cattle on feed 27.2 Soring Dies. . 33 9 Fall pigs 27.2 Feeder pigs purchased 13.5 Feeder cattle purchased 18.9 Inventories included quite a number of older model machines, espe- cially in the southern area. The existing machinery, however, would generally be considered adequate for the units farmed. Modal farm units Surveyed farms in each area were arrayed in terms of land and labor. In both areas, farms were most numerous in the "141 through 180 acres" size class. The modal or typical farm class in each area also had one man-year of labor. The typical unit on the Flanagan soils is a tenant-operated, single tract unit, of 172 acres under 50-50 crop-share agreement. Approxi- mately five acres are in buildings and lots, seven acres are in permanent pasture, and the rest in crops. Livestock consists of five animal-units of forage-consuming livestock and three sows (six animal-units in all). The typical unit on the Cisne soils is a single tract of 160 acres, owner-operated, with 136 acres of cropland. Twelve man-months of labor are available annually. Livestock consists of nine animal-units of forage-consuming livestock and two sows. The modal units were modal with respect to land area and labor supply. The specific farms com- prising the modal classes were examined to determine the other char- acteristics noted here. 19627 ECONOMIC CHOICE OF CROPS 13 ANALYTIC MODEL The typical farm for the east-central area is slightly larger (172 acres) than the modal for the southern area (160 acres). There is more nontilled land in the southern area, and also more livestock. The net result, shown in Table 4, is that 152 acres are available for com- petitive cropping in the east-central area, compared with 123 in the southern area. Table 4. Land Resources on Farms Modal for East-Central and South-Central Areas of Illinois (acres), 1958 Area East-central South-central Modal total acreage 172 160 Nontilled acreage 12 24 Cropland for livestock feed production 8 13" Cropland available for cropping 152 123 * Total corn equivalent feed requirement -f- 1958 corn yield per acre in C-Sb rotation = cropland required for livestock feed production. See appendix Table 1 for livestock feed requirements. For November through February, farms in each area are assumed to have a surplus of labor. The rest of the year is divided into labor periods as shown in Table 5. The total supply of 2,080 man hours is assumed to be similarly distributed over the labor periods for farms in both areas. However, the larger livestock requirement in the southern Table 5. Labor Available on Farms Modal for East-Central (Flanagan) and South-Central (Cisne) Areas of Illinois, by Labor Period (man-hours), 1958 Labor period Total Required for live- stock and overhead Available for com- petitive cropping East- central South- central East- central South- central East- central South - central March 260 260 780 780 260 2.080 99 261 299 92 751 106 268 313 99 786 161 519 481 168 1,329 154 512 467 161 1,294 April-June. . . 780 Tulv Sept. . 780 October 260 Total.. . 2.080 14 BULLETIN NO. 683 I April, area leaves a smaller balance available for competitive cropping. The net labor supplies are given in the last two columns of Table 5. Only a few farms in the modal classes reported hay harvested from clover. Instead the crop was used as green manure, with effects re- flected in crop yields and fertilizer applications. A number of farms reported clipping weeds in clover. Hence, it was assumed that no hay was harvested and that weeds were clipped in the clover. In the model no change was allowed in the amount of crop carryover. Therefore, all crops produced were assumed sold. As noted above, the price was varied for each crop to observe differences in solutions generated by each of the numerous price relationships among crops. Thus the alternatives available for land and labor resources consist of crop rotations found to exist in each area. These are arrayed in Table 6. Fertilizer application rates found in the survey are reported in Table 6. Crop Rotations Found on Farms Surveyed in the East-Central and South-Central Cash-Grain Areas of Illinois, 1958 Area Crop rotation* East-central South-central Corn-soybeans-wheat-clover x x Corn-soybeans-oats-clover x Corn-soybeans-wheat (clover) x x Corn-soybeans-oats (clover) x Corn-soybeans x x Corn-soybeans-oats x Corn-soybeans-wheat x x Corn-oats-clover x Corn-corn-soybeans-oats-clover x Corn-corn-soybeans-wheat (clover) x x Corn-corn-soybeans-oats (clover) x Corn-corn-soybeans x Corn-corn-oats-clover x Corn-corn-corn x x Corn-soybeans-corn-oats x Corn-soybeans-soybeans-wheat (clover) x Corn-soybeans-soybeans-wheat-clover x Wheat-soybeans x Corn-soybeans-redtop-redtop-redtop x Corn-redtop-redtop-redtop-soybeans x Soybeans-wheat-redtop-redtop-redtop-redtop x Soybeans-soybeans-soybeans x Corn appears in all east-central rotations, and soybeans in all but three. In the south- central area, soybeans appear in all but one rotation. No oats were found in the south-central area; no redtop in the east-central area. Wheat is more important in the south-central area rotations. J962J ECONOMIC CHOICE OF CROPS 15 .3 2 _g U S 3 U 16 BULLETIN NO. 683 [April, M 2 <" S U O O ON ON CS ON OO OO O * <* <** ON t- -H ^ . * 69"' S3.' 1 (Q <* l^ to 00 CS ON O PO to -NO"* IO ON ON NO OO NO M* -- 1 f" ON ON L_c CM 00 -H , 69. 69- /^N. ^* ON vO ^* ^* *O OO OO M ^ NO T* 3 ^ CS Tj< o u .1 * OOCSrt^iOOOOOOO - - ^ T* iO^t^T^vOOO^t^iO^tOO\N r \ J Q O^ T * CK !O ^ O\ ^ ~ ' *^ *O ^^ t^ - * O\ t** *O O ^* O ^ *O CS * i 00 ~ MH - ^ - ^ V C r* W H QJ CSNO-|NOO^J < ON' I -ONTf PCONNOOPOPOTj'Tj'tSOOPCPO * ON PO ^* PO ^~* PO PO f5 "H tO CS to to ^* CO ON to CM NO CN ON J 3 u >7 cs CN ^H . . . cs cs PC "^ g 69. 69. 4> I '2 * ^ Q H ^ o _^ ^^P ^o^Q o. ^ O ^H PO **-. -i-t-- -l PO o CM CS i-l i-l *-l -H CN CS CS CS CS CN u I .a - ** ** CNO t^ CS ON ON NO O PO OO OO NO O *-' CS OO fS *-> .gj 4> VOO PONONOONON'p^ -t~ OtO I IO CS T}< ON PO > ^-1 es ro H -i PO <-H es CN cs PO cs cs cs ^H CN 2 ' P c C4 ^H NO O O PO ON CS PO O ** * CS Ti< PC PO '-I OO NO CN t^ ON -H ON 00 ^-l OO t- VO ** "*< '-l CS ON IO CN OO -O -l IO OO NO t^ IO O >-l ON O CS 00 JU 4) >, (M CS PO CS > 160 .030000 .154000 .04OOOO .205333 Wj 518 2.04050 2.149000 2.72067 2.71533 Wi 481 1.35700 1.30725 1.50933 1.44300 W4 168 .720000 .567000 .960000 .756000 + 1.34 Corn -17.9650 -17.7300 -31.1000 -25.1433 + 2.34 Soybeans -8.0500 -7.4750 -9.8833 -9.9000 + 1.93 Wheat -10.4950 -11.8533 + .61 Oats -15.6900 -17.9800 Cj - 9.2957 - 12.1821 18.6588 -13.1191 -9.8231 16.4039 C-Sb P. C-Sb-O P C-Sb-W P7 C-0-C1 C-C-Sb-0-Cl P P. C-C-Sb-W (Cl) PlO Pi. Pl7 Pi. Pi. Pt> P.i Pa Pa P 1 3.63900 1.31200 1.13400 -33.4100 - -11. 4200 1 .165333 2.71533 1.44300 .756000 34.0000 - -9.4900 - 20 . 7867 1 2.72067 1.50933 .960000 32.5333 10.3100 12.8166 1 1 .205333 .123200 1.80333 2.53760 .956333 1.09860 .638000 .836400 -31.6100 -30.3140 -5.2320 -13.0000 -8.0100 1 .030000 3.06350 1 . 19800 1.19800 37.5225 -7.6250 -7.6675 Cj -11. 7962 14.6782 14.4245 -9.9968 -15.5562 C-C-Sb-O(Cl) Pn C-C-Sb Pit C-C-O-C1 Pu C-C-C C-Sb-C-O Pl4 P.6 Land disposal Pu Pi. Pl7 Pi, Pi. P.O Pll Pa Pa Pl4 1 . 154000 3.05950 1.14825 1.04550 -35.8025 - -5.8275 -13.1975 1 3.79000 .962667 1.39400 54.0667 - -9.9733 1 .154000 2.37550 . 783250 .95700 38.2325 18.0125 1 1 .124000 4.09200 3.05950 .264000 1.14825 1.91400 1.04550 -59.8100 -46.5350 -6.6825 -9.9825 1 Cj + 1.34 +2.34 +1.93 + .61 Labor Labor Labor Wi W W> dis[>osul disposal disposal Pl7 PlS Pl9 Labor W4 disposal PlO Corn Soybean Wheat sales sales sales Pn Pa Pa Oat sales Pl4 Pi. Pl7 Pi, Pi. P.O Pll Pa Pa P4 1 1 1 1 000 000 000 000 000 1 1 1 000 1 The Cjs for Pi ... is are negative prices equal to their per-unit variable costs (variable cost per rotation acre). The Cjs for Pj . . . w = since idle land and labor have no opportunity cost in this model. The Cjs for Pn ... 14 are market prices less marketing costs for the prod- ucts produced. b Labor supplies are: Wi, March; Wz, October; Ws, April, May and June; \V4, July, August and September. BULLETIN NO. 683 (April. Appendix Table 6. Model for the Flanagan Soils Farm Unit, 1958 Cj -13.9907 -14.8789 -20.5083 -12.7072 Ci Po C-Sb-W-Cl Pi C-Sb-O-Cl P C-Sb-W(Cl) Pi C-Sb-O(Cl) P 4 Pu Land 152 1 1 1 1 Pa Labor Wi> 160 .0300 .1540 .0400 .205333 Pu VVi 518 2.0405 2.1490 2.72067 2.71533 Pa W 481 1.3570 1.30725 1.50933 1.4430 P W 4 168 .7200 .5670 .9600 .7560 Pn + 1.34 Corn -19.190 -22.7675 -30.3333 -25.1433 Pa + 2.34 Soybeans -8.2375 -8.50 -10.5167 -9.900 Pn + 1.93 Wheat -12.270 -15.0867 P* +0.61 Oats -19.2775 -17.980 -17.7201 -17.9553 -20.6882 -14.1685 -18.4814 -23.1476 C-Sb C-Sb-O C-Sb-W C-O-C1 C-C-Sb-O-Cl C-C-Sb-W (Cl) P P P7 P. P. Pu Pu 1 1 1 1 1 1 Pn .165333 .205333 .1230 .030 Pu 3.6390 2.71533 2 . 72067 1.80333 2.53760 3.06350 P 1.3120 1.4430 1.50933 .956333 1.0986 1.1980 P 1.1340 .7560 .960 .6380 .83640 1.1980 P -42.660 -40.00 -34.5667 -29.01 -40.5040 -45.4850 Pa -15.670 -12.1567 -10.5433 -6.0720 -8.6750 Po -15.590 -9.59250 PM -25.070 -20.0 -14.910 -19.1976 -14.6271 -15.8225 -19.5347 C-C-Sb-O(Cl) C-C-Sb C-C-O-C1 C-C-C C-Sb-C-O Land disposal Pn Pu Pu Pu Pi* Pu Pu 1 1 1 1 1 1 Pn .1540 .1540 .1240 Pu 3.05950 3.790 2.37550 4.0920 3.05950 Pi 1 . 14825 .962667 . 783250 .2640 1 . 14825 P 1.04550 1.3940 .9570 1.9140 1.04550 PJI -45.7650 -67.8333 -44.1375 -69.010 -47.660 Pa -8.20250 -11.140 6.68250 Pu PM 16.0725 -13.90 -8.33250 + 1.34 +2.34 +1.93 +0.61 Labor Wi disposal Labor W. disposal Labor Wi disposal Labor \V4 disposal Corn sales Soybean sales Wheat sales Oat sales Pl7 Pu Pi P Pti Pa Pn P Pu Pn 1 Pu 1 P 1 P 1 Pn 1 Pa 1 Pn 1 P* 1 The Cjs for Pi ... a are negative prices equal to their per-unit variable costs (variable costs per rotation acre). The Cjs for Pi . . . = since idle land and labor have no opportunity cost in this model. The Cjs for Pzi . . . M are market prices less marketing costs for the prod- ucts produced. b Labor supplies are: Wi, March; W, October; Wa, April, May and June; \\'t, July, August and September. I962J ECONOMIC CHOICE OF CROPS 39 Appendix Table 7. Model for the Cisne Soils Farm Unit, 1954 c, -10.2063 -19.4393 -9.18010 -12.7490 Ci Po C-Sb-W-Cl Pi C-Sb-W(Cl) C-Sb Pi P. C-Sb-W Pu Pi. PIT Pu P.. PJO Pi. P Pn Land 123 Labor Wi*> 154 Labor Wi 511 Labor Wj 467 Labor W 4 161 + 1.32 Corn + 2.33 Soybeans + 1.92 Wheat + .419 Redtopseed 1 .058000 . 185200 1.09625 .875750 -10.1712 -6.52998 -5.54553 1 1 .077333 .056000 2.31933 3.05000 1.16167 1.03300 1.16767 1.24000 -19.5123 -20.7700 -8.65287 -11.5802 -6.90513 1 .037333 2.31933 1.16167 1.16767 -12.8420 -8.00600 -11.0608 Cj- -9.17646 -8.92632 -8.54811 -10.16507 -11 .5773 -4.82370 C-Sb-Sb-W (CD P. C-Sb-Sb-W-CI P. W-Sb PT C-C-Sb-W-Cl C-C-Sb-W (CI) P. Pi C-Sb-Rt- Rt-Rt Pio Pu Pi. Pu Pll Pi. P Pn Pn P 1 .069500 2 . 40650 1.23925 .967750 - 7 . 30560 -8.31843 -5.62078 1 .055600 2.01520 1.17140 .774200 -8.26482 -7.48588 -5.62000 1 .023000 1.76300 1.44550 .695500 -12.1788 - 7 . 30000 1 1 .059600 .074500 2.16800 2.59750 .995800 1.01975 1.12300 1.40375 -18.9890 -18.0636 -3.75138 -5.94045 -6.32000 -7.09375 1 .172400 1 . 22000 1.61320 .50100 -6.97778 -4.60740 -44.2801 Cj- -4.03105 -4.98330 -9.20099 -7.01698 C-Rt-Rt-Rt- Sb Pn Sb-W-Rt-Rt- Rt-Rt Pn C-C-C Pi. Sb-Sb-Sb d P.4 P.. Labor Wi disposal Pi. P.. Pi. P.7 Pi. P.. Pw Pt. Pa Pn 1 .172400 1.22000 1.61320 .50100 -3.80000 - 3 . 8028 -49.7843 1 . 1 74333 .587667 1.81517 .273500 -2.57798 -2.61818 -68.4038 1 .066000 3.43200 .594000 2 . 1 1 200 -37.4802 1 .046000 2.66800 1.47200 .368000 -21.5907 1 1 Ci- + 1.32 +2.33 + 1.92 + .419 Labor Labor Wi W> disposal disposal PIT Pi. Labor W. disposal P.. Corn Soybean sales sales P Pn Wheat sales Pn Redtop sales Pn P P.. Pl7 Pi. Pi. Pn Pn Pn Pu I 1 1 1 1 1 1 The Cjs for Pi ... 14 are negative prices equal to their per-unit variable costs (variable costs per rotation acre). The Cjs for Pu . . . = since idle land and labor have no oppor- tunity cost in this model. The Cjs for P ... 53 are market prices less marketing costs for the products produced. b Labor supplies are: \Vi, March; \Vz, October; Wa, April, May and June; \\'t, July, August and September. BULLETIN NO. 683 Appendix Table 8. Model for the Cisne Soils Farm Unit, 1958 c, -11.8743 -15.4782 -9.73515 -13.3268 Cl Po C-Sb-W-Cl Pi C-Sb-W (CI) Pi C-Sb P, C-Sb-W P4 Pl7 Pi. Pi. Pto Pll Pa Pu Land 123 Labor Wi*> 154 Wj 511 Wi 467 Wi 161 + 1.32 Corn + 2.33 Soybeans + 1.92 Wheat + .419 Redtopseed 1 .058000 .185200 1.09625 .875750 -11.0337 -6.59248 -6.92053 1 .077333 2.31933 1.16167 1.16767 -14.0323 -7.79787 -8.53847 1 .056000 3.05000 1.03300 1.24000 -21.4512 -11.7752 1 .037333 2.31933 1.16167 1.16767 -14.1020 -8.02101 -10.3208 -13.6658 -13.0454 -9.19811 -10.3971 -14.1467 -8.54042 C-Sb-Sb-W C-Sb-Sb-W-Cl (Cl) P. Pe W-Sb P7 C-C-Sb-W-Cl P 8 C-C-Sb-W (CI) P. C-Sb-Rt- Rt-Rt Pw Pi Pi. Pl7 Pi. Pi. P Ptl Pa Pn 1 1 .069500 .055600 2.40650 2.01520 1.23925 1.17140 .967750 .774200 -7.95598 -10.9448 -8.56843 -7.88588 -8.37078 -7.40000 1 .023000 1 . 76300 1.44550 .695500 -12.3788 -8.25000 1 .059600 2 . 16800 .995800 1.12300 -20.6590 -3.61138 -6.40000 1 .074500 2.59750 1.01975 1.40375 -21.2761 -6.12795 -7.71875 1 .172400 1.22000 1.61320 .501000 -14.7778 -4.96744 -49.2000 Q- -6.40738 -5.44102 -16.3668 -8.19898 C-Rt-Rt-Rt- Sb-W-Rt-Rt- Sb Rt-Rt Pll Pl2 C-C-C Pl3 Sb-Sb-Sb Pu Land disposal Pi. Labor Wi disposal Pi. Pw Pi. Pl7 Pu Pi. Pa Pn 1 1 .172400 .174333 1.22000 .587667 1.61320 1.81517 .501000 .273500 -9.00000 -3.96028 -2.70298 -3.81818 -50.2031 -73.9688 1 .066000 3.43200 .594000 2.11200 -47.4802 1 .046000 2.66800 1.47200 .368000 -23.7507 1 1 + 1.32 +2. 33 +1.92 + .419 Labor Labor disposal disposal Pl7 Pl8 Labor W4 disposal Pu Corn Soybean Wheat sales sales sales PM Pii Pa Redtop seed sales Pn Pu Pi. Pn Pu Pi. Pt, P.I Pa Pn 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 * The Cj. for Pi ... u are negative prices equal to their per-unit variable costs (variable costs per rotation acre). The Cis for P . . . =0 since idle land and labor have no oppor- tunity cost in this model. The Cjs for PM . . . 13 are market prices less marketing costs for the products produced. b Labor supplies are: \Vi, March; Ws, October; Wi, April, May and June; W<, July, August and September. 4M 4-62 76160 V UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS-URBANA Q630.7IL6B C008 BULLETIN URBANA 6831962 30112019530473