MM;' m HWsWi fm ^^Mw^ ■W'^'i-'^^^^^^^ ' ./ /7 CHANGES IN ILLINOIS POPULATION, BY COUNTIES, THROUGH NATURAL INCREASE AND MIGRATION, 1940 TO 1950 by C • L. Foi«e Prepared In Department of AgrlcuUorol Economics University of Illinois College of Agriculture Urbana , Illinois August 1955 AE3067 ■&-mm^^^^-m^ CHANGES IN ILLIHDIS POPULATION, BY COUNTIES, THROUGH NATURAL INCREASE AND MIGRATION, 19^ TO 1950i/ C. L. Folse^/ In any area — region, state, or county--the components of population growth are births, deaths, and migration. In the long rvm, a natural increase reflecting greater fertility and mortality is probably more important than mi- gration in population redistribution. However, in the short run, migration shows the way in which people are constantly making immediate adjustments to available natural resources and changing economic opportunities. In general, people move from areas of limited opportunity to areas of greater opportunity. When, in the total interchange of population, more people move out of an area than mov5 in, there is net out-migrationj conversely, when more move in than out, there is net in-migration. This study reports the extent to which natural increase and migration influenced the total, urban, and rural population growth of Illinois counties from 19iK) to 1950. The Bureau of the Census does not publish information show- ing the extent of migration among various groups over a period of time. To measure population migration, it was therefore necessary to make special tabu- lations of the cumulative births and deaths according to residence of mothers and decedents from one census date to the next. Unfortunately, it is not known how many people were involved in the total volume of migration from one county to another and from rural to urban areas during the entire decade. It is assumed that the difference between the cumu- lative births and deaths occurring in an area between the intercensal period from April 1, 19I1O, to April 1, I950, when added to the 19*^0 population, would give the projected I950 population. The difference between this projected popu- lation and the number enumerated by the Bvu^eau of the Census in I95O would be the net migration. If the 1950 enumerated population was larger than the pro- jected population, there would have been a net in-migration, which is shown by a plus ( + ) sign. If the projected population was smaller than the enumerated, there would have been a net out -migration, which is shown by a minus ( — ) sign. The rate of migration was computed by using the 19^0 population as the base. Tables 1, 2, and 3 show the net changes in total, urban, and rural population for the 102 counties of the state. 1/ The research for this report is a part of Illinois Agricultural Experiment Station Agricultural Economics (Rural Sociology) Project 394 contributing to North Central Regional Project NC-I8 entitled "Population Dynamics in the North Central Region and Related Rural Social and Economic Problems." Agencies cooperating in the regional project include the Farm Population and Rural Life Branch, Agricultural Marketing Service, United States De- partment of Agriculture; the Scripps Foundation for Research in Population Problems; and Community Services, Inc., of Kansas City. Dr. 0. K. Sagen, Chief, Bureau of Statistics, State Department of Public Health, Spring- field, Illinois, assisted in the study by making available special tabula- tions of resident births and deaths by counties and rural and urban areas from April 1, I9I1O, to April 1, 1950. 2/ Associate Professor of Rural Sociology, Department of Agricultural Eco- ^ nomics. University of Illinois College of Agriculture, Urbana, Illinois. ■ cioii During the decade from 19^0 to I95O, Illinois population increased by 81^,935^ or 10.3 percent. A major component of this growth was the excess of births (1,603,129) over deaths (894,921). This natural increase of 708,208 con- tributed 86.9 percent of the total growth in population. The remaining increase of 106,727* or 13.1 percent, was net migration into the state. That is, in the interchange of population with other states and regions of the nation, Illinois gained this many more persons than left for other states. During the decade the rural and urban populations contributed to the state's natviral increase in about the same proportions as they were represented in the I95O population. There were 1,218,655 urban births and 668,727 deaths, resulting in a natural increase of 5^9,928, or 77.6 percent of the total. Rural births numbered 38h,k'jk and deaths 226, 19i*-, giving a natural increase of 158,280, or 22.3 percent of the total. Urban and rural natural increase accounted for 67.5 and 19.4 percent, respectively, of the state's population growth. Migra- tion into the state contributed the remaining 13.I percent. Total population migration and natural increase . Figure 1 shows the gains and losses in Illinois popvilation due to migration between 19^0 and I95O. Twenty-seven counties showed net gains and 75 showed net losses. With the ex- ception of Kankakee, Morgan, and Union,!/ all counties had an excess of births over deaths (Table 1). Although the migration gain amounted to only 1.2 per- cent of the 19^0 population, there were wide variations among counties. Among the 27 coimties gaining population through migration, the rate varied from 36.5 percent in DuPage to less than one percent in Jo Daviess and Kendall. In addition to DuPage, gains of more than 20 percent of the 19IK) populations occurred in Chainpaign, Kankakee, Lake, and McHenry counties. Gains ranging from 5 to 20 percent were recorded in DeKalb, Kane, Madison, Rock Island, St. Clair, Tazewell, Will, and Winnebago counties. The remaining lU counties showed gains of less than five percent. The aggregate population gained by mi- gration in these 27 counties was 310,^^1, the figures ranging from 11,101 in Cook to 55 in Kendall. Figure 1 shows that most of the counties gaining through migration are in northern Illinois. The success of Chicago, Rockford, Peoria, Rock Island, Springfield, Decatur, and East St. Louis in attracting migrants into their own or nearby counties substantiates the general trend toward growth of population in the suburban fringes around our largest cities. Among the 75 counties losing population through migration, the losses ranged from 32.5 percent in Pope to 0.6 percent in Wabash. Losses of more than 20 percent were recorded in Alexander, Calhoun, Fayette, Gallatin, Johnson, Marion, and Schuyler counties. Losses of this magnitude in a county's base population in a ten-year period could lead to serious social and economic prob- lems. Thirty-six counties showed net losses ranging from 10 to 20 percent, and 31 had losses of less than 10 percent. Figure 1 shows that greatest losses through migration occurred in the counties of southern and south-central Illi- nois. The smallest losses were in the northwest central counties and those ad- jacent to the Wabash River at the Indiana boundary line. 1/ See explanatory notes. .Oi iBdl ;-3i ton :.sv -r-W.-ff.' ••h^tn -i-'.'i;.:-i . ; '5-r ■•-- one viari-t ^ IJii.V "10 "TO .rr*!- ,no3j:f>s:> ,3£r-^ri ,/I. ■^nBi nt ■rt'yc.x.'a .1 "it^x.'OTj^' no; •f. aalo-'Sioo ?T !:j:<^ s^fo.. SflG^ ' J. ro'i > !■ -3- iiil Gain Over 10^ Under lOfo Loss J Over Under lOfo State Average, Figure 1, Gains and Losses in Illinois Total Population Through Migration 19^0 to 1950 (Percentages Based on 19ii-0 Population). u I i A jtxii-.D t^I '-'9V0 ^ f^l •/ Ii4. r-i- ^9S- -4- The total population loss in these 75 counties amounted to 203, 75^^-. Losses of 11,157 in Marion county and 89 in Wabash county represented the ex- tremes. Total population growth . Fifty-six counties decreased in population between 19l;0 and I95O (Table 1) . In ^k of these counties there was an excess of births over deaths, but out-migration more than offset this gain, leaving a net loss. Morgan and Union counties had more deaths than births. Morgan had a slight in-migration of 686 but still had 81O fewer persons in 1950 than in 19i4-0. While out-migration in Union amounted to only 13O, there was a popula- tion decrease of 1,028 (4.8 percent). Forty-six counties increased in population between I9I+O and 1950* In all of them except Kankakee, births exceeded deaths. Twenty of them lost popu- lation because more people migrated out than in, but the natural increase was more than large enough to offset these losses. In the other 25 the increase was due to a combination of natural increase and net in-migration. In Kankakee county, where deaths were more numerous than births, the increase was due en- tirely to migration. It is interesting to note that in-migration was a more important component of population growth than natural increase in Champaign, Y' DuPage, Kane, Kankakee, Lake, McHenry, and St. Clair counties, contributing about 68 percent of the aggregate increase. In the other 19 counties, natural increase was more important thaji migration, contributing about 75 percent (see Table l) . Rural population migration and natural increase . Although the total Illinois rural population increased by 92,923, or h.^ percent, through migra- tion, this change resulted from gains of 277, 12U in 21 counties and losses of 183,201 in 81 counties. Table 2 shows that rural population gains through mi- gration ranged from 95.6 percent in Lake county to less than one percent in Kendall. The largest migration gain was 9^,916 in Cook county. Figure 2 shows that eight of the 21 counties gaining rural population throu^ migration — Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Kane, Kankakee, Kendall, McHenry, and Will — are in the Chicago metropolitan area. Others include Peoria, Tazewell, and Woodford in the Peoria area; Rock Island and Henry in the Davenport— Rock Island— Moline area; Sanga- mon and Macon in the Springfield -Decatur area; Madison and St. Clair in the St. Louis— East St. Louis area; and Winnebago in the Rockford area. Champaign and Lee coxmties are the only exceptions to this general pattern. The marked gains in rural population in these counties through migration dramatize the growth in the fringe areas around the largest cities (see Table 2) . Nine of the 21 coun- ties had migration gains of 30 percent or more, while Champaign, Kane, Macon, Peoria, and Tazewell increased between 16 and 30 percent. The remaining seven gained less than ten percent. While percentages and absolute increases in rural population through migration varied significantly among these 21 counties, the differences were not so marked for the 81 counties losing population. The greatest percentage loss was in Alexander, where 36.3 percent of the population migrated out. The smallest loss was 0.2 percent in Union. Figure 2 shows that counties losing population through out-migration do not follow so well defined a pattern as do those that gain. It is apparent, however, that the largest number of counties losing population through out-migration were concentrated in southern and west- central Illinois. Sixty-one showed losses exceeding ten percent. Alexander, -4^ •Kri.-f J.' ■- . - • .'«'=»• 'TO J: 't^ji J-ijrij ■•■J.X-..V -1 ' 1 - ..1^/3.-; ^ ^'^li -;j crcro •iOfff j., '-5 •S o: Gain I Over 10^0 Uhder IQf^o Loss Over 10^0 Under lO^o State Average, Figure 2. Gains and Losses in Illinois Rural Population Through Migration, 19^0 to 1950 (Percentages Based on 19i)-0 Population). 'jOJ. f ■1 l£.'x!jn ciionillJ. .'.-J: bs^c -6- Fayette, Gallatin, Hamilton, Johnson, Perry, Pope, Saline, and Wayne in south- ern Illinois showed losses of 36.3, 27.3, 23. 1, 21.9, 21.6, 25.9, 20. 9, 32-5, 23.6, and 2h.6 percent, respectively. Schuyler, Calhoun, and Pike in the west- central area had losses of 20.4, 22.5; and 2^.3 percent. With notable exceptions, the counties experiencing losses of less than ten percent were in northern Illinois. Others showing losses of less than ten percent were Ford, Logan, and Vermilion in the east-central cash- grain area; Edwards, Jefferson, Lawrence, Monroe, and Union in the southern part; and Hancock on the western border. It is particularly interesting to note the number of counties losing from 10 to 20 percent of their rural popu- lation through migration in the highly commercialized cash-grain and livestock areas of east and west-central Illinois (Table 2). Rural population growth . Migration and natural increase played dif- ferent roles as components of rural population change during the decade from 19*^0 to 1950. Sixty-eight counties had fewer rural inhabitants in I95O than in 191*0. Althouch there was an excess of births over deaths in 6^ of these counties, out-migration resulted in a net loss of rural population. In Union county an excess of deaths over births combined with a slight out-migration also resulted in a net loss. Had these 6j counties retained their natural in- crease of 80,539 persons, rural population in the state would have increased. However, there was a net decrease of 92,652 between I9I+O and I95O due to the out-migration of 173,191 persons from rural areas. Table 2 shows that 3^ counties increased in rural population between I9U0 and 1950. While 13 of them lost by migration, there were enough excess births over deaths to cause an over-all increase. In the remaining 21 coun- ties, 20 gained by a combination of natural increase and migration, while Kankakee's gain was due entirely to in-migration. In these 20 counties, in- migration was the more important component, contributing 263,893, or 8I.7 per- cent, of the 322,843 increase. DeKalb, Henry, Kendall, and Woodford counties increased their rural populations largely because they had a natural increase of 89.7 percent and a slight in-migration of 10.3 percent. Urban population migration and natural Increase . Migration has tra- ditionally been an important component of population growth in cities. But in this decade rural population in Illinois gained 93,923, or 4.5 percent, by mi- gration. This constituted 37*2 percent of the total increase in rural popula- tion. On the other hand, Illinois urban population gained 12,8o4, or only 0.2 percent, through migration. Thus net migration into rural areas was more than seven times as great as migration into Illinois cities. Table 3 shows the population changes, natural increase, and migration in 82 counties containing one or more incorporated centers of 2,500 or more in- habitants in 1940 .i' Forty counties lost urban population through migration, and 42 gained. Losses ranged from 27-7 percent in Alexander county to 0.1 per- cent in Marion. In addition, Cass, Clay, DeWitt, Franklin, Menard, and Saline counties lost more than ten percent of their urban population (see Figure 3)' Besides Knox, counties losing less than one percent through migration were Christian, Cook, Douglas, and Macon. Out-migration losses in the remaining 27 1/ See explanatory note. ~h~ jnL'or> -1 asK ' -'■&. w ihi a. -7- Galn Over 10^ Under IQffo Loss Over lOfo 03 Under 10/, I I No Urban State Average, +0.2/3 Figure 3, Gains and Losses in Illinois Urban Population Through Migration, 19'<-0 to 1950 (Percentages Based on 19II0 Population), i: -8- counties ranged between one and two percent. Losses in numcers varied from 17,215 in Cook county to 15 in Douglas. For counties gaining urban population by migration, percentages varied from ^4-8. 3 in Chacipaign county to 0.8 in Lake. Of the k2 counties gain- ing by migration, I6 gained more than ten percent, with increases of 33 •9> 2^4-. 5, 23.1, and 20.7 percent in Crawford, Wayne, Hancock, and White, respectively. Champaign county!/ experienced the largest absolute increase in numbers, with 18,039 more persons coming into the county than leaving. The gain of 51 urban residents in Shelby county was the smallest recorded. Urban population growth . Between 19^ and 1950, urban population in- creased in 68 counties and declined in Ik. natural increase and migration played different roles as components of these changes. There was a natural in- crease amounting to 10,88l in ik counties, but out-migration of 22,600 resulted in a net decrease of 10,729- Losses from migration amounted to ^,599 in 26 counties, but a natural increase of 436,669 resulted in a net increase of 396,070. Natural increase was therefore solely responsible for the urban population growth in these counties. Among k2 counties increasing in urban population during the decade, migration emd natural increase were almost equally important as coinponents of population change. The population increase amounted to 177,6o6 in these coun- ties. Of this total, 76,003, or 42.8 percent, was due to migration, and 101,603, or 57.2 percent, to natural increase. &iinrifl.ry In Illinois between 19^0 and 1950, natural increase was the major com- ponent of population growth, and migration was of lesser importance. Rural and urban areas both had an excess of births over deaths proportionate to their rel- ative importance in the state's total population picture. The state gained 107,627 inhabitants by migration during the ten years. Of this total, rural areas gained 88 percent and urban 12 percent. Twenty- seven out of the 102 counties showed gains in total population through migration, and 75 had losses. Most of the gains were in northern Illi- nois, while the losses were scattered throughout the state, with the greatest concentration in the southern part. Fifty-six counties had a net decrease in total population during the decade. Although in 54 of them births exceeded deaths, the number of people migrating out was sufficient to cause an over-all loss. In Morgan and Union counties, population declined as a result of an excess of deaths over births and out -migration. Forty-six counties showed a net increase in population. In 25 it was due to a combination of natural increase and migration, and in 20 others the natural increase was sufficient to offset losses suffered through migration. Kankakee county's increase was due entirely to in-migration. 1/ See explanatory note. .i.-* ■?!^:t S' . s'lrsD'. r..' noid- ■• I fil .rCrOiT • .)0-i.r{ + Tii'.>9J- fai'O:) -9- Rural population losses through migration occurred in 8l counties and gains in 21, During the period, 68 counties decreased in rural population. Migra- tion was the major component of decline in 67 cases, since all had an excess of births over deaths. In Union county the decline was due to a negative natural increase and migration. Thirty-four counties increased their rural population. In 20 counties migration and natural increase were both components of growth. Migration contributed 88 percent, and natural increase 12 percent. Thirteen counties grew by a natural increase surplus sufficient to offset losses through migration. Rural population in Kankakee county increased by migration alone. Forty of the 82 counties containing urban population experienced losses through migration, and k2 had gains. Natural increase was not adequate to offset the number migrating from urban areas in ik counties that showed a net loss in urban population during the decade. Of the 68 counties showing increases in ur- ban population, 26 increased solely through migration and 42 through migration and natural increase. Explanatory Notes The method used in estimating migration for Illinois counties made no adjustment for the different procedures used by the United States Bureau of the Census in enumerating college students in 19^*0 and 1950. In 19^0 college stu- dents were counted as residents of the communities in which their parents lived, but in 1950 they were counted as members of the college community where they were attending school. While the migration of college students from any one county probably did not significantly affect the county total migration, the populations of counties containing institutions of higher learning may have been considerably enlarged by counts of students from other areas of Illinois as well as from other states and foreign countries. This fact should be taken into account in interpreting the estimated net migration in Champaign, Coles, Cook, DeKalb, Han- cock, Jackson, Jersey, Knox, Macon, McLean, Morgan, and Peoria counties. For example, students enrolled in the University of Illinois are included in the es- timated net migration of 23,600 into Champaign county. Another point where caution should be exercised in interpreting migra- tion figures is in counties where state institutions are located. The Bureau of the Census enumerates institutional populations in the county where they are lo- cated. Similarly deaths of long-time residents in such institutions are also recorded by the Bureau of Vital Statistics, State Department of Public Health, in the county where they occur. Counties containing the 11 largest state insti- tutions frequently have deaths that are numerous enough to produce a negative natural increase (deaths exceeding births) . Migration estimates for the total and rural populations in Kankakee, Morgan, and Union counties illustrate this problem (see Tables 1 and 2). The tabulation on page 10 shows the adjusted cumu- lative deaths occurring in these institutions from April 1, 19^+0, to April 1, 1950. JS EtXTO V:-;g in' r[\iso-x:. ■': Hi .fj VlOJSP.sLrr-'S-. S'i.B . '■. .1 O V srf.i cd-ntjc fU &rj^. : ituG. ■ arid' esw .iTOit^'j;'-.!. j 'Tijixm -JriU ^^ j;9./ •u t?Is 2,286 2,926 6,100 2,513 4,120 3,081i 3,107 5,529 2,928 1,632 1.05i^ -10- Location of Deaths institution County 19^0 to 1950 Alton Madison Anna Union Chicago Cook East Moline Rock Island Elgin Cook-Kane Jacksonville Morgan Kankakee Kankakee Manteno Kankakee Peoria Peoria Dixon Lee Lincoln Logan Total 35,279 In estimating rural and urtan migration for the state and the individ- ual counties, the Bureau of the Census 19i^0 definition of urban was applied to the 1950 population. Additional adjustments were made to insure comparability of 36 rural incorporated places in 19^+0 whose population had increased to more than 2,500 by 1950, and three incorporated places of more than 2,500 in 19I+O that had retrogressed to a rural status by 1950- In order that changes in the census classification of these places would not erroneously transfer their populations as migrants from rural to urban and vice versa, 121,385 persons in the 36 places (urban in 1950) were transferred to the rural classification in 1950, and 7,09''- in the three places (urban in 194o) were put into the 1950 urban category. The net effect was to increase the I950 rural population (under the 19iK) definition) from 2,225,503 to 2,339,79!^. Similarly the I95O urban population was reduced to 6,372,382 by subtracting 121,385 persons in 36 places classified as urban in 1950 and adding 7,09^ in three places classified as rural in I95O from the total of 6,486,673 reported by the census. Accordingly, the 1950 urban population includes only those places that were incorporated and had 2,500 or more inhabitants in 19^0, and rural includes all other areas that were classified as rural in 19^0, that is, those having no incorporated centers with as many as 2,500 population. Data were not available to adjust for rural territory annexed to or areas detached from cities during the intercensal period. Thus the extent to which this change influenced the amount of migration from rural to urban and the reverse is not known. According to the official publications of the Bureau of the Census, Illinois rural population increased 6.6 percent between 19^0 and 1950. Table 2 shows that this segment of the population grew 12.1 percent after adjustments were made (see preceding paragraph). Population living in urban areas (incor- porated centers of 2,500 persons or more) increased 11. 7 percent. 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