THE UNIVERSITY < -" OF ILLINOIS LIBRARY I-fG/b r NOTICE: Return or renew all Library Materials! The Minimum Fee for each Lost Book is $50.00. The person charging this material is responsible for its return to the library from which it was withdrawn on or before the Latest Date stamped below. Theft, mutilation, and underlining of books are reasons for discipli- nary action and may result in dismissal from the University. To renew call Telephone Center, 333-8400 UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS LIBRARY AT URBANA-CHAMPAIGN 7 \C*L L161 0-1096 Prices and Consumption of Milk in Specific Cities As Related to Industrial Payrolls and Other Economic Factors By R. W. BARTLETT CITIES %o JULY- DECEMBER 1933 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 MOLINE ROCK ISLAND JOLIET ROCKFORD AURORA STERLING WCFJ34 ILLINOIS CHICAGO DANVILLE DECATUR QUINCY E. ST. LOUIS BLOOMINGTON PEORIA SPRINGFIELD FACTORY PAYROLLS IN FOURTEEN ILLINOIS CITIES IN 1932 AND LAST HALF OF 1933 Drastic reductions in consumer purchasing power are the major causes for milk strikes during periods of declining prices. Both producers and distributors find difficulty in adjusting to the new situation. Milk strikes took place in Rock Island, Moline, Joliet, and Rockford in 1932, when factory payrolls in those cities were relatively the lowest in the state. UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS AGRICULTURAL EXPERIMENT STATION BULLETIN 397 (January, 1934) CONTENTS PAGE INDUSTRIAL PAYROLLS AND EXPENDITURES FOR DAIRY PRODUCTS 400 RECENT COURSE OF INDUSTRIAL PAYROLLS AND PRODUCTION 403 Changes in Industrial Payrolls as Related to Type of Goods Produced 403 Proportion of Illinois Wage Earners Employed in Consumption- and Durable-Goods Industries 407 Importance of Different Types of Industries in Specific Illinois Cities.. 409 Changes in Industrial Payrolls in Illinois and in Specific Illinois Cities 411 CHANGES IN THE DEMAND FOR MILK AND CREAM 423 DECLINING POPULATION CURVE CURTAILS POTENTIAL MARKET FOR MILK AND CREAM 425 INCREASED PER-CAPITA CONSUMPTION AS A POTENTIAL OUTLET FOR MILK AND CREAM 428 How Can Per-Capita Consumption of Milk Be Increased? 429 Units of Land and Labor Necessary to Supply Increased Volume of Milk 430 TRENDS IN MILK CONSUMPTION IN INDIVIDUAL CITIES 432 Consumption of Milk and Cream at Peoria 432 Consumption of Milk and Cream at New York and Philadelphia 434 Consumption of Milk and Cream in Boston 441 INFLUENCE OF STORE SALES ON PER-CAPITA CONSUMPTION OF MILK 444 OTHER FOODS AS COMPETITORS OF MILK 450 Effect of Unequal Price Declines 450 Food Competition Intensified by Declining Payrolls 457 Evaporated Milk as a Competitor of Fluid Milk 460 Competition of Butter and Oleomargarine 462 Competition of Bread in Chicago and Peoria 464 SUMMARY 465 CONCLUSIONS 466 APPENDIX.. . 468 Urbana, Illinois January, 1934 Publications in the Bulletin series report the results of investigations made by or sponsored by the Experiment Station Prices and Consumption of Milk in Specific Cities As Related to Industrial Payrolls and Other Economic Factors By R. W. BARTLETT, First Assistant in Agricultural Economics A LMOST all city markets have experienced serious problems in /-\ marketing milk during the three and one-half years of falling .A. )\ prices from 1929 to 1933. The direct cause for the difficulties encountered has been the drastic decline in consumers' purchasing power which occurred coincidently with falling prices. By 1932 fac- tory payrolls in United States had fallen to 44 percent of those for 1925-1927, and in Illinois, to 34 percent of those in the previous period. The extent of the decline in consumers' incomes has varied widely in different cities. Dissatisfaction among milk producers in Illinois markets during the latter part of 1932 and the early part of 1933 was manifested by milk strikes or disturbances in Rock Island, Moline, Joliet, and Rock- ford. Factory payrolls in these four cities in 1932 were the lowest in the state (cover). The greater the severity of the decline in con- sumer purchasing power in a given city, the more difficult it is for producers and dealers to adjust themselves to the new situation. The greatest dissatisfaction among milk producers, however, is evidenced during a period of rapidly rising prices. From March to August, 1933, wholesale milk prices in the United States increased 14 percent, farm prices for dairy products increased 20 percent, and farm prices for grain, 125 percent. In March, 1933, the wholesale price of 100 pounds of milk in Illinois would buy 213 pounds of an Illinois dairy ration (Fig. 1 and Table 1). In August it would buy only 131 pounds of this ration, or about two-thirds as much as in March. The underlying cause for the milk strikes which occurred in Connecticut, Pennsylvania, New York, and Illinois from June to August, 1933, was the increasing difficulty which dairymen in these areas experienced in meeting expenses with the money received from milk. Feed prices during this period increased much faster than milk prices. A like situation existed in 1916 and 1917, when milk strikes took place in nearly every large city market in the country, including New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Boston, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, and other milk markets. Feed prices are speculative, -while milk prices are di- rectly dependent upon incomes which consumers are receiving cur- rently. When the general price-level is rising rapidly, feed prices normally increase more than twice as rapidly as factory payrolls. Such 399 400 BULLETIN 397 [January, a maladjustment makes it impossible to sustain sales of milk and at the same time to increase milk prices as rapidly as feed costs increase. The present investigation was undertaken with the two-fold aim of analyzing: (1) changes and causes for changes in consumer incomes, since demand for milk and its products in each locality is so directly dependent upon the amount of money available to buy these products ; and (2) the effects of changes in population, of milk and cream prices, consumer incomes, and the use of food substitutes upon the consump- tion of milk and cream. Analyses of the factors that influence the demand for milk might be made from the viewpoint of producers, of distributors, or of con- sumers. In this" study analysis of each market policy relating to de- mand has been made from the viewpoint of the consumer, for policies which are to the best interests of consumers it is believed will, in the long run, be most profitable both to producers and to distributors. In studying differences in the behavior of different milk markets, numerous questions arise, such as: What are some of the reasons for the wide differences in the per-capita consumption in the different markets? Why, for example, was the decline from 1929 to 1932 in consumption of both milk and cream so much greater in Philadelphia than in Boston or New York, and why is the per-capita consumption of milk and cream in both Boston and New York so much higher than that for Philadelphia ? Also, how can the per-capita consumption of milk be increased? Answers to these questions may be useful in formulating policies for fluid-milk markets. Methods of milk production and milk distribution, as related to marketing policies, are subjects for another study. Detailed tables in this study not essential to the text are shown in the Appendix. INDUSTRIAL PAYROLLS AND EXPENDITURES FOR DAIRY PRODUCTS Butter is generally recognized by leaders in the dairy industry as the foundation of the price structure for milk and for products other than butter. When the fluid-milk industry has a surplus, it can always be made into butter. When shortages of milk occur, milk or cream which would otherwise have been manufactured into butter can be diverted to the fluid-milk market. Hence when a major economic change occurs which causes a corresponding change in butter expen- ditures this force is soon reflected in all parts of the dairy industry. The intensity of this force, however, varies considerably, depending upon the change in consumers' incomes in a given market as compared with that for the United States. For example, if in a given market payrolls have fallen far more than the average for the country, this 1934] PRICES AND CONSUMPTION OF MILK 401 TABLE 1. POUNDS OF ILLINOIS DAIRY RATION THAT 100 POUNDS OF MILK WOULD BUY EACH MONTH DURING 1929-1933 1 Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Aver- age 1929.. 140 142.6 144.4 151.3 152.3 153.0 132.1 136 5 135.3 136 1 150 5 150 5 143 3 1930. 150 3 149 2 156 9 133 4 143 1 149 3 161 8 138 8 153 4 174 8 189 5 183 7 155 4 1931. 172 7 170 6 168 7 159 8 182 2 196.9 203.9 225 2 250 7 269 6 218 2 225 8 198 8 1932.. 211.9 215.9 207.7 205.2 223.4 230.8 241.1 233.4 237.2 263.7 265.8 248 9 228 2 1933. 246 7 224 9 212 8 178 153 5 163 117.7 131.0 139 161 >See Appendix, Tables 39 and 41. 190 1910 '12 '14 '16 '16 '20 '22 '24 '26 '281929 1930 1931 1932 1933 FIG. 1. RELATIVE WHOLESALE PRICES OF MILK IN ILLINOIS FROM 1910 TO 1933, PRICES OF AN ILLINOIS DAIRY RATION, AND POUNDS OF DAIRY RATION THAT 100 POUNDS OF MILK WOULD BUY Milk strikes are most prevalent when the general level of prices is rising rapidly. Thus from June to August, 1933, strikes occurred in Connecticut, Pennsylvania, New York, and Illinois. When a similar price situation existed in 1916 and 1917, strikes took place in New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Boston, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, and other markets. difference tends to force either greater price reductions or to cause greater losses in sales of milk and its products than are experienced in the country as a whole. 402 BULLETIN 397 [January, Consumers' expenditures for butter during the fourteen-year period 1920-1933 have been shown by L. H. Bean 1 to have gone thru practically the same changes as the indexes of industrial payrolls 2 (Fig. 2). In 1929 both expenditures for butter and industrial payrolls were slightly over 50 percent higher than they were in 1922. In 1932 1920 '30 1933 FIG. 2. INCOME OF NONAGRICULTURAL CONSUMERS AND RETAIL EXPENDITURES FOR BUTTER IN THE UNITED STATES FROM 1920 TO 1933 The total amount of money that nonagricultural consumers have spent for butter during the past fourteen years has been directly dependent on the incomes of these consumers. Since butter is the price-maker for a large share of milk, cream, and other dairy products sold, it is easy to understand the vital significance that changes in incomes of consumers have on the economic welfare of dairymen and those handling dairy products. (Graph after L. H. Bean in The Agricultural Situation, February, 1933.) payrolls and retail expenditures for butter had declined to only slightly more than half those for 1929. In 1933 these indexes declined about 3 percent below those for 1932. Since butter is the price-maker for a large proportion of milk, cream, and other dairy products sold, the above relationship indicates the vital significance which changes in industrial payrolls have upon the economic welfare of dairymen in this country. Distributors of dairy products also are vitally affected by changes in industrial in- comes. Between 25 and 30 percent of what consumers pay for butter goes for costs of marketing the product. For milk, cream, and manu- factured products other than butter, the services of distribution absorb a higher share of what consumers pay than in the case of butter. 'The Agricultural Situation, Vol. 17, No. 2. U. S. Department of Agricul- ture. February, 1933. Industrial payrolls included factory payrolls, railroad payrolls, and con- struction contracts awarded. 1934} PRICES AND CONSUMPTION OF MILK 403 RECENT COURSE OF INDUSTRIAL PAYROLLS AND PRODUCTION Changes in Industrial Payrolls as Related to Type of Goods Produced Industrial payrolls fluctuate far more in some cities than in others. Industrial payrolls in selected cities and in the United States for 1932, March, 1933, the month when payrolls in the United States were the lowest ever officially recorded, and August and October, 1933, are shown in Table 2. TABLE 2. INDEXES OF FACTORY PAYROLLS IN SELECTED CITIES IN THE UNITED STATES IN 1932 AND IN MARCH, AUGUST, AND OCTOBER, 1933 1 (1925-1927 = 100) 1933 City 1932 March August October New York . . . 46 44 52 57 Chicago 34 26 40 39 Phila/fplphfci 52 42 55 62 Baltimore , 41 32 50 53 Pittsburgh. 26 20 52 48 Milwaukee . . . . . . 37 28 . 52 53 United States 44 36 55 56 'Based upon data from the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in the respective states for cities included and from the Federal Reserve Board. Industrial payrolls as shown here do not include railroad payrolls or building contracts awarded. From 1921 to 1929, indexes including factory payrolls, railroad payrolls, and building contracts awarded in the United States averaged 3.4 percent lower than indexes of factory payrolls. The principal cause for the wide differences in payroll fluctua- tions in these cities can be traced directly to differences in the major kinds of goods produced in them, some producing mainly consump- tion goods and others mainly durable goods. Consumption goods are products in general use that are quickly consumed or worn out and replaced, such as food, clothing, tobacco, gasoline, and articles made of leather, paper, rubber, and textiles. Durable goods include bridges and locomotives, freight cars and automobiles', machinery and furni- ture, buildings, ships, and other products made of such materials as iron, steel, cement, glass, and lumber. 1 The per-capita output of consumption and durable goods in the United States since 1899 is shown in Fig. 3 and Table 3. These data include the major part of the output of goods produced each year in this country by agriculture, forestry, manufacturing, and mining. The output of consumption goods declined from an index of 103 in 1929 'This classification was published by Leonard P. Ayres in the Cleveland Trust Company Business Bulletin, Vol. 13, No. 11, November 15, 1932. 404 BULLETIN 397 [January, to an index of 83 in 1932, a net decline of 19 percent. The output of durable goods declined from an index of 111 in 1929 to an index of 35 in 1932, a net decline of 68 percent. Thus in a period when the output of durable goods declined more than two-thirds, the output of consumption goods declined less than one-fifth. In 1929 there were about 4.5 million workers in six groups of factory employees making durable goods and 3.6 millions of workers in six groups of consumption-goods industries. 1 By March, 1933, the TABLE 3. INDEXES OF THE PER-CAPITA PRODUCTION OF DURABLE AND CONSUMPTION GOODS IN THE UNITED STATES, 1899-1932 1 (1923-1925 = 100) Year Con- sump- tion goods 2 Durable goods 1 Percent of total goods Year Con- sump- tion goods* Durable goods* Percent of total goods Con- sump- tion goods Durable goods Con- sump- tion goods Durable goods 1899. . . 80.4 78.9 75.7 85.9 82.9 86.2 89.3 90.7 85.0 85.2 87.1 87.1 82.8 94.0 87.1 92.1 96.6 51.9 50.8 55.9 61.3 60.2 57.8 68.8 74.2 76.3 59.1 75.5 78.2 72.0 82.8 84.4 71.2 82.5 75.3 75.3 72.7 73.4 73.0 74.6 71.8 70.6 68.6 73.9 69.4 68.6 69.3 69.0 67.0 71.7 69.7 24.7 24.7 27.3 26.6 27.0 25.4 28.2 29.4 31.4 26.1 30.6 31.4 30.7 31.0 33.0 28.3 30.3 1916 .. 91.8 95.5 95.1 91.5 93.2 85.5 93.0 100.3 99.6 100.3 102.9 101.6 102.9 103.4 95.6 94.3 83.4 1931 103.2 103.0 103.8 89.0 98.4 59.1 82.8 104.3 92.5 103.0 106.7 96.5 103.2 111.0 82.0 55.4 35.0 63.6 64.6 64.3 66.9 65.0 74.0 69.2 65.4 67.9 65.7 65.4 67.4 66.2 64.7 69.6 77.0 82.4 69.3 36.4 35.4 35.7 33.1 35.0 26.0 30.8 34.6 32.1 34.3 34.6 32.6 33.8 35.3 30.4 23.0 17.6 30.7 1900 1917 . 1901 1918 1902 1919 1903 1920 . . . 1904 1921 1905 1922 1906 1923 1907 1924 1908 1925 1909 1926 1910 1927 1911 1928 1912 1929 1913 1930 . . . 1914 1931 1915 . 1932 Average 1899 to Calculated from data obtained thru the courtesy of Col. Leonard P. Ayres, Cleveland Trust Company, Cleveland, Ohio. 'Includes production of domestic fuel, agricultural products, paper, rubber goods, leather goods, and textiles. 'Includes production of industrial fuel, all metals, lumber, cement, shipping, and transportation equipment. number of employees making durable goods had been reduced to 1.9 millions, or to only 41 percent of the number employed in 1929. In this same month in the consumption-goods industries there were 2.6 millions of workers, or 72 percent of the number employed in 1929. In March, 1933, factory payrolls in the food-products industries were 58 percent of those in 1929; in industries manufacturing paper and printing goods, 56 percent; leather, 51 percent; textiles and to- bacco, 41 percent; and rubber tires, 28 percent of those for 1929 (Fig. 2). March payrolls in the automobile industry were only 22 percent of those for 1929; in industries manufacturing iron and steel, "From Census of Manufactures as tabulated in the Cleveland Trust Com- pany Business Bulletin, Vol. 14, No. 10, October 15, 1933. 1934] PRICES AND CONSUMPTION OF MILK 405 21 percent; cement, 19 percent; and lumber, 16 percent. Payrolls in the durable-goods industries declined even more proportionately during this period than did production or the number of workers in these in- peru dustries. 1899 '03 '07 'II '15 '19 '23 '27 '31*33 1899 '03 '07 '15 '19 '23 '27 '31 '33 FIG. 3. PER-CAPITA PRODUCTION OF DURABLE AND CONSUMPTION GOODS IN THE UNITED STATES FROM 1899 TO 1933 From 1929 to 1932 the output of consumption goods in the United States declined 19 percent; the output of durable goods declined 68 percent. Ex- pressed otherwise, the durable-goods output declined more than two-thirds in the same period when the consumption-goods output declined less than one- fifth. The wide differences in factory payroll fluctuations in different cities can be traced mainly to differences in the character of the goods manufactured. A continued increase in the durable-goods industries will be necessary to relieve the unemployment situation. Payrolls for March, 1933, in New York and Philadelphia were higher than those in other cities primarily because a greater propor- tion of their factory employees produce consumption goods (Table 2). March payrolls in Chicago and Pittsburgh were relatively low because of the collapse of industries manufacturing iron and steel products in those cities. During the period of business recovery in the summer 406 BULLETIN 397 [January, of 1933 payrolls in Chicago and Pittsburgh increased much more rapidly than did those in New York and Philadelphia. FOOD 58 PAPER 56 LEATHER 51 TEXTILES 41 TOBACCO 41 ALL PRODUCTS 34 RUBBER TIRES 28 AUTOMOBILE 22 IRON i STEEL 21 CEMENT 19 LUMBER 16 20 30 40 PERCENT 50 60 FIG. 4. PAYROLLS IN SPECIFIC INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURES IN THE UNITED STATES IN MARCH, 1933 By March, 1933, manufacturing payrolls had declined to 34 percent of those for 1929. Payrolls in the foods, paper, textiles, and tobacco groups de- clined least, while those in the lumber, cement, iron and steel, and automobile groups declined most. TABLE 4. INDEXES OF PAYROLLS OF ALL REPORTING INDUSTRIES IN ILLINOIS AND OF MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES IN ILLINOIS AND IN THE UNITED STATES, 1923-1933 (1925-1927 = 100) Year Illinois United States All reporting industries 1 Manufacturing industries 1 Manufacturing industries' 1923. .. 102.7 96.6 98.4 104.4 97.3 96.2 100.5 82.8 63.8 43.8 43.0 105.6 95.3 97.9 104.2 98.0 95.2 101.3 77.6 53.8 34.3 36.1 101.0 93.4 98.5 101.8 99.6 99.4 105.2 85.4 64.4 44.2 46.3 1924 1925 1926. 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932.. . . 1933 J Data for 1923 to 1932 from the Labor Bulletin, Illinois Department of Labor, January, 1933, p. 142. The average payrolls for 1933 were tabulated from monthly releases in 1933 of the Illinois Division of Labor Statistics. z Based upon data as reported monthly by the Federal Reserve Board. To convert from a 1923-1925 base to a 1925-1927 base multiply by .97656. 19341 PRICES AND CONSUMPTION OF MILK 407 Proportion of Illinois Wage Earners Employed in Con- sumption- and Durable- Goods Industries About 60 percent of the people employed in Illinois manufacturing industries in 1927 were employed in the production of durable goods. The metals industries employed 234,354 wage earners, or nearly three- fourths of the total number of workers producing durable goods (Fig. 5 and Table 5). Industries engaged in the manufacture of wood products employed 44,787 wage earners, the stone, glass, and clay industries employed 25,223 wage earners, and the chemical, oils, and paint industries employed 23,071 wage earners. GOODS FIG. 5. DISTRIBUTION OF WAGE EARNERS IN ILLINOIS BY INDUSTRIES, 1927 About three-fifths of the 587,094 wage earners in the manufacturing in- dustries in Illinois in 1927 were employed in durable-goods industries ; two-fifths were employed in consumption-goods industries. The metals industries formed the largest single group of wage earners, employing about two-fifths of the total number. The remaining 40 percent of the workers in the manufacturing in- dustries in Illinois produced consumption goods. The food-products industries in 1927 employed 76,248 wage earners, or over one-third of the total number of this group. Industries manufacturing paper and printing goods employed 63,561 wage earners ; the clothing and milli- nery industries, 45,726; the furs and leather goods industries, 21,170; and the textile industries employed 11,312 wage earners. Unclassified industries in Illinois employed 41,642 wage earners in 1927. 408 BULLETIN 397 [January, About 55 percent of the factory employees in the United States are normally employed in the durable-goods industries, as compared with 60 percent for Illinois. Partly because of this fact reductions in factory payrolls in Illinois from 1929 to 1933 were greater relatively than those for the United States. By March, 1933, payrolls in the TABLE 5. DISTRIBUTION OF WAGE EARNERS IN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES IN ILLINOIS, 1927 1 Group Number Percentage of total 1. Metals, machinery, conveyances, total 234 354 Iron and steel 82 432 Electrical apparatus 41 329 Agricultural implements 19 225 Cooking and heating apparatus 18 675 Cars and locomotives 16 348 Brass, copper, rine, and others 16 247 Sheet metal work and hardware 15 432 Automobiles and accessories 6 549 Instruments and appliances 6 546 Machinery 5 654 Tools and cutlery 3 526 All others 2 391 2. Food, beverages, tobacco, total 76 248 Meat packing 31 596 Bread and other bakery products 15 097 Confectionery 8 673 Flour, feed, and cereals 6 814 Fruit and vegetable canning 3 612 Miscellaneous groceries 3 192 Dairy products 3 044 AH others 4 220 3. Printing and paper goods, total 63 561 Job printing 29 180 Newspapers and periodicals 10 679 Paper boxes, bags, and tubes 7 646 All others 16 056 4. Clothing and millinery 45 726 5. Wood products 44 787 6. Stone, glass, clay 25 223 7. Chemicals, oils, paints 23 071 8. Furs and leather goods 1 21 170 9. Textiles 11 312 10. Miscellaneous industries 41 642 All manufacturing industries 587 094 39.9 3.0 0.8 7.8 7.6 4.3 3.9 3.6 1.9 7.2 100.0 l Data from U. S. Census of Manufactures, 1927. October, 1932, p. 71, Table 1. Published in Labor Bulletin, Illinois Department of Labor, United States had declined to 36 percent of those for 1925-1927. Illi- nois payrolls in March were 27 percent of this base period, or one- fourth lower than those for the United States. A long-time revival of the durable-goods industries accompanying business recovery will improve payrolls in Illinois faster than pay- rolls in areas where the manufacture of consumption goods constitutes a greater proportion of the industries. 1934] PRICES AND CONSUMPTION OF MILK 409 Importance of Different Types of Industries in Specific Illinois Cities In Sterling-Rock Falls, Moline, Joliet, Aurora, and Rock Island the payrolls of the metals industries in September, 1929, constituted more than three-fourths of the total payrolls of all manufacturing industries 1 (Fig. 6 and Table 6). In Peoria, Rockford, Decatur, Quincy, and Springfield the payrolls of the metals industries consti- tuted between 60 and 75 percent of the total manufacturing industries payrolls. In Chicago about half the payrolls reported for September, 1929, originated in the metals industries. TABLE 6. DISTRIBUTION OF MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES IN ILLINOIS AS MEASURED BY FACTORY PAYROLLS, SEPTEMBER, 1929 1 Industry State Aurora Bloom- ington Chicago Danville Decatur E.St. Louis Joliet Stone, glass, and clay 4.5 .5 1.9 34.6 10.7 9.0 Metals, machinery, convey- ances 52 6 79 8 57 3 47 9 33 1 61 9 12 80 4 Wood products 4.3 3.8 1.0 2.7 2.0 .9 Furs and leather goods 4.0 2 5 Chemicals, oils, and paints Printing and paper goods Textiles 4.6 9.5 1 4 4.4 2.5 7 5 io!7 3.2 13.4 1 6 10.2 17.8 11.4 5.5 1.6 Clothing and millinery .... 4 7 3 7 7 7 1 13 9 4 1 3 Food, beverages, tobacco Total 14.4 100.0 2.1 100.0 30.8 100.0 18.3 100.0 7.2 100.0 31.4 100.0 46.1 100.0 1.3 100.0 Industry Moline Peoria Quincy Rock- ford Rock Island Spring- field Sterling- Rock Falls AU Others Stone, glass, and clay 2 1 7 1 5 12.2 Metals, machinery, convey- ances ... . . 87 2 73 9 62 4 72 9 78 3 60 5 96 4 53.0 Wood products 5.4 3.7 16 6 7.5 3.9 .5 3.7 Furs and leather goods 10.4 1.8 22.4 9.2 Chemicals, oils, and paints. . . 2 9.7 Printing and paper goods Textiles 5.2 7.2 1.4 14.9 3.9 3.3 ii!2 10.9 1.7 1.3 2.5 .7 Clothing and millinery 5 1.0 .7 Food, beverages, tobacco Total . . . 2.0 100 10.1 100 5.8 100 .5 100 166 6 .6 100 1.8 100.0 8.3 100.0 Calculated from payroll data obtained thru the courtesy of Illinois Department of Labor, Division of Labor Statistics. In East St. Louis the foods group ranged first among the different industries in amount of payrolls, and in Chicago this group ranked second. The foods group was among the three leading industries in Bloomington, Decatur, Peoria, and Sterling-Rock Falls. 'The Division of Labor Statistics of the Illinois Department of Labor, which compiles these payrolls, attempts to get an average representation of each industrial group. In some cases, however, it has not been possible to do this. Hence the proportional distribution of payrolls by industrial groups should be considered an approximation rather than an exact cross-section of existing conditions. 410 BULLETIN 397 [January, AURORA METALS. MACHINERY TEXTILES CHEMICALS, OILS, PAINTS BLOOMINGTON METALS , MACHINERY FOODS,BEVERAGES, TOBACCO 31 PRINTING, PAPER GOODS METALS, MACHINERY 48 FOOD,BEVERAGES,TOBACCO 16 PRINTING, PAPER GOODS 13 CHICAGO DANVILLE DECATUR E. ST LOUIS JOLIET MOLINE PEORIA QUINCY ROCKFORD STONE, GLASS, CLAY METALS. MACHINERY CLOTH ING, MILLINERY METALS, MACHINERY 62 FOOD.BEVERAGES.TOBACCO 31 CLOTHING , MILLINERY 4 FOODS, BEVERAGES.TOBACCO 46 CHEMICALS, OILS, PAINTS 18 METALS , MACHINERY 12 METALS, MACHINERY STONE, GLASS. CLAY CHEMICALS, OILS, PAINTS METALS, MACHINERY WOOD PRODUCTS PRINTING , PAPER, GOODS METALS. MACHINERY 74 FOODS, BEVERAGES.TOBACCO 10 PRINTING, PAPER GOODS 7 METALS, MACHINERY PRINTING, PAPER GOODS FURS, LEATHER GOODS METALS, MACHINERY WOOD. PRODUCTS PRINTING, PAPER GOODS ROCK IS 1 AND METALS, MACHINERY TEXTILES WOOD PRODUCTS SPRINGFIELD METALS. MACHINERY FURS, LEATHER GOODS PRINTING. PAPER GOODS STERLING- METALS, MACHINERY 96 ROCK FALLS FOODS, BEVERAGES.TOBACCO 2 PRINTING, PAPER GOODS I 100 FIG. 6. THE THREE PRINCIPAL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES IN FOURTEEN ILLINOIS CITIES IN SEPTEMBER, 1929, AS MEASURED BY AMOUNT OF PAYROLLS REPORTED The most important industries in Illinois are those manufacturing metal goods and machinery. In 1929, this group ranked highest in twelve out of four- teen cities. The printing and paper-goods group was among the three princi- pal industries in Chicago, Bloomington, Springfield, Quincy, Peoria, Moline, Rockford, and Sterling-Rock Falls, as measured by payrolls. In Danville the stone, glass, and clay industries were the most im- 1934~\ PRICES AND CONSUMPTION OF MILK 411 portant, as measured by payrolls. The chemicals industries ranked sec- ond in East St. Louis. Rock Island is the only one of the selected Illinois cities in which the textiles group ranks among the three most important industries. In Rock ford the furniture and other wood products industries are an important source of payrolls. Changes in Industrial Payrolls in Illinois and in Specific Illinois Cities 1 Industrial payrolls in Illinois are classified by the Illinois Depart- ment of Labor as "payrolls for all reporting industries," and "payrolls for manufacturing industries." Payrolls in industries other than the manufacturing group include those for wholesale and retail trade, eating and cleaning establishments, public utilities, coal mining, and building and contracting. Payrolls for all industries from 1923 to 1929 showed practically the same changes as those for manufacturing industries (Fig. 7 and Table 4). From 1930 to 1933, however, payrolls for all industries were somewhat higher than those for manufacturing industries. Dur- ing this period payrolls in the wholesale and retail trade and in public utilities were higher, while payrolls from coal mining and building construction were lower, than factor}' payrolls. Payrolls in all in- dustries have been higher than factory payrolls primarily because a greater number of workers have been employed in trade and public utilities than have been employed in coal mining and construction. Indexes of payrolls for selected Illinois industries for 1932 and for March, August, and October, 1933, are shown in Table 7. Since March, 1933, greater increases have occurred in manufac- turing payrolls than in payrolls for all industries. The increase in trade payrolls was less than that for factory payrolls, while public- utility payrolls were lower in October than in March, 1933. The following discussion of changes in consumer incomes in 'Each month the Illinois Department of Labor publishes a mimeographed report showing the percentage change in employment and payrolls for the principal cities in the state. To bring to date currently the payroll indexes for any city included in Table 9, multiply the percentage change in payrolls for the current month for that city by the index for the previous month. The figure obtained plus the index of the previous month from which this was calculated is the index for the current month. For example, in July, 1933, the index of Aurora payrolls was 32.6 percent of that for December, 1928. The August report of the Illinois Department of Labor showed an increase of 22.7 percent for payrolls in the manufacturing industries in Aurora over those for July. The August index is then calculated as follows: 32.6 X 22.7% = 7.40. 32.6 + 7.4 = 40.0, the August index. Usually it is preferable to carry the index to two decimal places in order to prevent an error in future calculations. For convenience, however, the payroll indexes shown in this study have been car- ried only to one decimal, altho they were carried to two places on the original work sheets. 412 BULLETIN 397 [January, selected Illinois cities is based on factory payrolls since payrolls of all industries in these cities have been reported only for recent months. Factory payrolls in those Illinois cities that produce a higher pro- portion of consumption goods declined less from 1929 to 1932 than payrolls for the state as a whole, for taken as a whole Illinois in- dustries are engaged principally in producing durable goods. (Fig. 8 and Table 8). By 1932 Illinois factory payrolls had declined to 35 percent of those for December, 1928. Seven cities, including Bloomington, Springfield, Peoria, East St. Louis, Quincy, Decatur, 100 80 1- 2 Ul o ~*' \LINC USTRIES - M ir ANUFACTUF JDUSTRIES \\ ING \ \ \\ ^ - fc I i i SAME MONTH 925-1927 -10 1 \ _ 1923 '25 27 29 1933 FIG. 7. COMPARISON OF INDUSTRIAL PAYROLLS FOR ALL REPORTING INDUSTRIES IN ILLINOIS AND FOR MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES, 1923 TO 1933 The combined payrolls for all industries in Illinois have declined somewhat less than payrolls in the manufacturing industries since 1929 because included in "all payrolls" are those of such industries as public utilities, retail and whole- sale trade, and service groups, whose payrolls declined less than those in the manufacturing industries. TABLE 7. INDEXES OF INDUSTRIAL PAYROLLS FOR SELECTED ILLINOIS INDUSTRIES IN 1932 AND IN SELECTED MONTHS IN 1933 1 (1925-1927 = 100) 1Q39 1933 March August October All industries ... . .... 43 8 36 4 48.4 49.6 Manufacturing industries 34.3 27.2 42.6 43.0 Wholesale and retail trades 48 9 39 9 49 4 50.6 Public utilities 80.0 72.2 71.5 73.7 Coal mining 19.7 25.5 24.0 31.9 Building and contracting 11.9 7.2 13.4 15.1 'From monthly reports of Illinois Department of Labor. 1934} PRICES AND CONSUMPTION OF MILK 413 1929 105 1930 87 1931 72 1932 52 2O 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 PERCENT FIG. 8. FACTORY PAYROLLS OF Two GROUPS OF ILLINOIS CITIES, 1929-1932 Wage earners in seven Illinois cities whose payrolls in 1932 were above the state average received 32.5 percent of their incomes in 1929 from the consump- tion-goods industries. Wage earners in seven other cities in the state whose 1932 payrolls were below the state average received only 8.7 percent of their incomes in 1929 from the consumption-goods industries. The cities whose industrial payrolls were very low in 1932 will be the first to improve with a long-time revival of the durable-goods industries. TABLE 8. INDEXES OF FACTORY PAYROLLS FOR SELECTED ILLINOIS CITIES, 1929 TO 1932, AND PROPORTIONS THAT PAYROLLS IN INDUSTRIES MANUFACTURING CONSUMPTION GOODS WERE OF TOTAL FACTORY PAYROLLS IN 1929 City Proportion payrolls in consumption-goods industries were of total payrolls, 1929 1 Factory payrolls 1 (December 1928 = 100) 1929 1930 1931 1932 Cities with 1932 payrolls abote state average Bloomington ......... , . , , perct. 42 115 6 82 5 70 8 53 4 Danville 31 87.7 66.5 60.2 41.7 Decatur 35 97.5 76.4 66.7 44.7 E. St. Louis ' 58 101 3 90.0 70.9 53 4 Peoria 19 111.9 97.4 71.4 55.5 Qiiinoy ........ , . . . , , . .. 36 106 4 83 64 4 45 SpringfinlH ,,,,,,,,, 36 101.6 85.9 98.0 57.5 Weighted average. 32.5 104.5 87.0 71.8 51.5 Cities with 1932 payrolls under state average Aurora.. . 16 105.1 70.8 50.3 33.6 Joliet... 4 106 7 84 3 54 2 25 2 Moline 7 97.4 67.8 29.9 13.5 Rockford 10 101.5 69.5 45.7 27.2 Rock Island 14 99.7 70.6 33.9 19.1 Stwling-Rnflk FaILt 3 97.4 79.4 54.9 34.0 Weight^ average. 8.7 102.2 73.6 45.9 25.3 iSee Table 9. 414 BULLETIN 397 [January, and Danville, each had factory payrolls in 1932 that were higher than the average for the state. Averaged together, payrolls in these cities in 1932 were 51.5 percent as high as in December, 1928. x By 1932 factory payrolls in Chicago had declined to practically the same level as those for the state as a whole. In Sterling-Rock Falls, Aurora, Rockford, Joliet, Rock Island, and Moline, 1932 factory payrolls had declined to 25.3 percent of those for December, 1928; thus the 1932 index for these cities was about one-third lower than the average for the state. In the seven cities w r hose factory payrolls in 1932 were higher than the state average, the payrolls of those industries producing consump- tion goods averaged 32.5 percent 2 of total payrolls reported during a more normal month, September, 1929. In the cities whose 1932 factory payrolls were less than the state average, payrolls in the consumption- goods industries in September, 1929, averaged only 8.7 percent of the total payrolls reported, or approximately one- fourth of the average for cities in the higher payrolls group. These data are further shown in Fig. 9. Aurora. From 1929 to 1932 factory payrolls in Aurora declined rapidly. In 1932 they averaged 33.6 percent, or one-third of those for December, 1928 (Fig. 10 and Table 9). They reached a peak of 123.2 percent in May, 1929. During the latter part of 1929 and during 1930 they declined precipitously until in January, 1931, they were 45 percent, or only slightly more than one-third of those of May, 1929. Except for a slight upward movement in the early part of 1931 pay- rolls in this city declined quite steadily during 1931 and 1932. In December, 1932, they were 25.3 percent, or about one- fourth of those in December, 1928. In November, 1933, payrolls had increased to 34.4 percent of those for the base month. Bloomington. In 1929 factory payrolls in Bloomington were 115.6 percent of those for December, 1928. In 1932 they had declined to 53.4 percent, or to slightly more than half those in 1929 (Fig. 10 and Table 9). Payrolls in this city are highly seasonal because of the summer and early fall operation of both a canning factory and a candy factory. In May, 1929, they reached a peak of 164.9 percent. By August, 1929, they had declined to 78.8 percent, or to less than half those for May. The course of payrolls for this city was down- ward from 1929 to 1932. In December, 1932, payrolls were 45.2 percent, or about two-fifths, of those of December, 1928. In November, 'Illinois factory payrolls, as shown in Table 4 and Fig. 7, had as their base: 1925-1927 = 100. To convert these data to the base of December, 1928, mul- tiply by 1.01833. December, 1928, was used as the base since it is the earliest date for which the figures for some of the cities are available. Data are not adjusted for seasonal variation. "These averages were weighted according to the total payrolls of reporting industries included within each group, as of September, 1929. 1934] PRICES AND CONSUMPTION OF MILK 415 ( ) 2 D 4 PERI 6 :ENT 8 1C 120 30 71 31 50 '32 34 '33 32 BLOOMINGTON 29 " '30 82 = mmmm mam* '31 71 '32 53 '33 56 CHICAGO 29 104 31 56 '32 35 mm DANVILLE i29 88 '30 66 '31 60 '32 42 '33 38 DECATUR i29 98 "30 76 '31 67 "32 45 '33 49 E. ST LOUIS 1929 10 '30 9O '32 53 '33 58 JOLIET 1929 107 '31 54 '32 25 '33 27 MOLINE 1929 97 ^ s, 'SO 68 '31 30 '32 1* '33 18 PEORIA 1929 112 "30 97 '31 71 '32 56 QUINCV 1929 106 '30 83 '31 64 '32 45 '33 52 ROCK FORD 1929 102 31 46 '32 27 33 28 ROCK ISLAND 1929 100 = mm mm '30 71 '31 34 132 19 33 19 SPRINGFIELD 1929 102 '30 86 mmmm '31 98 32 58 '33 44 STERLING- 1929 97 ROCK FALLS ^ TO '31 55 *32 34 '33 42 ^ 20 40 60 80 120 December 1928 =100 FIG. 9. FACTORY PAYROLLS IN FOURTEEN ILLINOIS CITIES IN 1929-1933 New construction, combined with renovation of old buildings engaged in the manufacture of foods and beverages, caused Peoria payrolls to rank highest for Illinois cities in 1933. 416 BULLETIN 397 [January, 1932 1933 1929 1930 DECEMBER 1928 = 100 FIG. 10. FACTORY PAYROLLS IN FOURTEEN ILLINOIS CITIES, BY MONTHS, 1929-1933 Improvement in economic conditions is indicated by the general upswing in factory payrolls in the majority of Illinois cities in 1933. 1934] PRICES AND CONSUMPTION OF MILK 417 10. Concluded 1933, payrolls had increased to 58.1 percent of those for the base month. Chicago. Factory payrolls in Chicago in 1929 averaged 104.3 per- cent of those for December, 1928 (Fig. 10 and Table 9). In 1932, they had declined to 35.1 percent, or to about one-third of those for 1929. Payrolls in this city reached a peak of 107.9 percent in August, 1929. From 1929 to 1932 the course of Chicago payrolls was steadily downward. In December, 1932, they were 29.1 percent, or slightly more than one- fourth, of those in December, 1928. In November, 1933, payrolls had increased to 38.6 percent of those for the base month. Since Chicago is the largest city in Illinois, the course of its fac- tory payrolls largely governs the course of payrolls for Illinois as a 418 BULLETIN 397 [January, whole. In 1932 Chicago payrolls were eighth from the highest, or at about the half-way point, of those for the Illinois cities included in this study. Danville. Factory payrolls in Danville declined from an index of 87.7 in 1929 to 41.7 in 1932 (Fig. 10 and Table 9), or to less than half the 1929 index. Payrolls in this city reached a peak of 103.1 in May, 1929. During the latter part of 1929 and 1930 they declined pre- cipitously, reaching a low point of 28 in January, 1931. This decline was followed by a marked increase in payrolls during the summer of 1931. Since that time the general course of payrolls has been down- ward. In December, 1932, payrolls in this city were 30.6 percent of those for December, 1928. In November, 1933, payrolls had increased to 41.8 percent of those for the base month. Decatur. By 1932 factory payrolls in Decatur had declined to 44.7 percent, or to slightly more than two-fifths, of those for Decem- ber, 1928 (Fig. 10 and Table 9). They reached a peak of 104.4 per- cent in March, 1929. From 1929 to 1932 they were declining; by De- cember, 1932, dropping to 37.3 percent, or to about three-eighths, of those in December, 1928. In November, 1933, payrolls had increased to 58.4 percent of those for the base month. East St. Louis. From an index of 101.3 in 1929 factory payrolls in East St. Louis declined to an index of 53.4 in 1932, or to about half that of three years previous (Fig. 10 and Table 9). Payrolls reached a peak of 106.1 percent in September, 1929. From 1929 to 1932 their course has been a rather steady downward one. In Decem- ber, 1932, they were 49.6 percent, or half, of those in December, 1928. In November, 1933, they had increased to 67.4 percent of those for the base month. Joliet. By 1932 factory payrolls in Joliet had declined to 25.2 percent, or to one- fourth, of those for December, 1928 (Fig. 10 and Table 9). They reached a peak of 115.7 percent in June, 1929. Ex- cepting for a slight rise during the early part of the year, payrolls in this city declined rapidly up to March, 1933. In December, 1932, they were 17.5 percent, or about one-sixth, of those for December, 1928. In November, 1933, they had increased to 31.3 percent of those for the base month. Moline. Factory payrolls in Moline declined from an index of 97.4 in 1929 to 13.5 in 1932, or to about one-seventh of the 1929 index (Fig. 10 and Table 9). They reached a peak of 111.9 percent in February, 1929. With the exception of a slight rise during the winter months each year, they declined very rapidly from 1929 to 1932. In December, 1932, they were 13.8 percent, or about one-seventh, of those in December, 1928. In November, 1933, they had increased to 25.8 percent of those for the base month. 19341 PRICES AND CONSUMPTION OF MILK 419 TABLE 9. INDEXES OF FACTORY PAYROLLS IN 14 ILLINOIS CITIES, 1929 TO 1933 1 (December 1928 = 100) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Aver- age Aurora 1929 . 86 5 95 3 106 4 109 1 123 2 114 3 107 3 108 6 103 4 109 2 105 8 92 5 105 1 1930 79.1 84.5 81.7 83.2 75.8 68.1 67.8 67.5 59 3 65 1 57 9 60 9 70 8 1931 45 51 59 8 58 3 56 6 52 6 50 7 49 3 50 2 48 1 40 7 41 2 50 3 1932 37.4 39.3 38 4 41 2 36 9 33.5 29 30 6 30 8 29 6 30 8 25 3 33 6 1933 22.4 26.5 27.0 25.5 29.1 31.3 32.6 40.0 39.6 39.7 34.4 Bloomington 1929 87 9 115 3 136 9 146 2 164 9 164 7 98 7 78 8 104 9 107 8 92 9 88 7 115 6 1930 77 84.5 98.4 91.3 78.2 78 7 75 1 88 2 89 9 92 1 69 1 67 2 82 5 1931 61.6 62.9 69.5 72.8 69.2 75.4 70.4 84.6 82 4 85 58 8 57 7 70 8 1932 47 5 58 58 1 53 8 47 3 42 4 41 7 49 2 75 9 73 5 48 7 45 2 53 4 1933 45.7 47.1 30.8 44.8 49 1 55 8 58 8 62 9 76 6 84 7 58 1 Chicago 2 1929 98.1 102 2 102 1 103 2 105 5 107 7 106 2 107 9 107 106 7 103 6 101 3 104 3 1930 95.4 92.9 95.5 90.6 85.3 81.7 76.3 75.2 73.3 70.6 65 9 65 5 80 7 1931 64 2 64 4 63 4 61 4 58 8 57 1 54 7 54 9 50 4 48 5 45 1 46 9 55 8 1932 45.8 42.9 40 4 36.9 35.3 34 4 29.8 32 4 32 9 32 2 29 3 29 1 35 1 1933 29.2 29.4 26.4 27.2 30.1 33.2 36.2 40.6 41.1 40.6 38 6 Danville 1929 .. 83.5 84.8 91.8 104.0 103.1 100.7 90.1 87.4 83.8 75.7 76 4 71.0 87 7 1930 64 3 66 1 65 6 70 1 76 2 72 1 75 3 70 61 5 63 2 59 9 53 8 66 5 1931 28.0 34.0 64.7 75.8 88 6 85.3 67.2 61.9 62.1 51.5 53 50 2 60 2 1932 46.9 67.1 68.6 44.9 43.2 37.6 31.8 30.9 32.1 34.3 32.5 30.6 41 7 1933 34.2 29.9 29.5 32.5 36.6 38.9 39.4 44.0 43.2 41.9 41.8 Decatur 1929 . . . 95 6 103 1 104 4 101 7 98 9 101 3 93 6 99 6 92.5 99 91.5 88 5 97 5 1930 84.3 85.6 81.1 82.2 85.0 75.7 66.6 70.3 73.3 73.8 67.3 71.7 76 4 1931 66.3 72.3 72.2 70.3 75.4 66.5 68.2 65.9 63.9 59.7 57.8 61.9 66.7 1932 54 8 53 3 48.1 50 2 48.4 42.8 40.2 38.4 41.6 42.5 39.2 37 3 44 7 1933 38.8 38.5 37.6 40.3 46.9 50.4 49.0 52.3 58.5 57.3 58.4 East St. Louis 1929 105 4 102 102 5 105 8 104 2 100 4 101.1 102.9 106.1 102.8 91 8 90 5 101 3 1930 95 9 98.3 94.9 100.5 95 2 95.1 90.2 87.3 92.9 83.3 73.8 72.5 90 1931 70.6 66.9 72.1 79.5 77.4 72.3 72.3 73.1 72.8 70.3 61.4 62.3 70.9 1932 60 5 59 3 58 8 57 6 60 8 58 2 57 5 54.6 57.7 53.7 51.7 49 6 53 4 1933 49.6 44.7 42.7 44.9 49.4 54.2 63.4 65.5 75.3 77.6 67.4 Joliet 1929... 88.3 103.8 99.3 111.8 112.9 115.7 105.4 113.9 108.8 109.5 112.7 98.3 106.7 1930 85 98.4 92 6 99.0 98.2 94.1 87.5 77.5 73.0 76.0 67.2 63.2 84.3 1931 63.0 69.6 70.0 75.1 69.8 60.9 49.9 43.7 36.5 39.3 34.4 38.0 54.2 1932 39 8 36 1 37 7 33 4 25.0 20.9 16.9 17.7 19.2 20.0 18.3 17.5 25.2 1933 14 6 17.4 16.6 20.5 25.4 27.0 33.2 39.2 35.2 31.9 31.3 'Data obtained thru the courtesy of the Illinois Department of Labor, Division of Labor Statistics. Calculated currently from monthly reports issued by this Department. 'Converted from 1925-1927 base by multiplying by 1 02669. 420 BULLETIN 397 [January, TABLE 9. INDEXES OF FACTORY PAYROLLS IN 14 ILLINOIS CITIES, 1929 TO 1933 Concluded (December 1928 = 100) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Aver- age Moline 1929 106 6 111 9 111.7 109 2 106.9 90.3 75.5 86.8 93.3 92.9 92.4 92 97 4 1930 88 4 90 3 96 3 92 1 82 61 3 43 4 49 9 56 49 3 50 55 2 67 8 1931 51 4 50 4 48.7 43 3 34 8 24 8 20 8 17.1 17.0 17 5 14 5 18 5 29 9 1932 18 5 18.3 19.4 18.9 12.8 9.8 7.9 8.7 10.4 10.7 12.9 13.8 13.5 1933 13.6 14.9 12.6 13.2 15.2 16.8 14.8 18.4 22.8 24.5 25.8 Peoria 1929 98 7 109 2 113 116 1 113 5 108 6 110.1 114.7 115.2 113.9 110 6 114 4 111.9 1930 112.6 117.4 118.7 119.6 118.6 114.6 99.2 72.9 70.1 73.7 74.7 77.2 97.4 1931 78 8 83 4 79 6 77 1 80 3 75 9 71 55 9 62 4 64 6 63 2 64 2 71 4 1932 64 9 68 6 68 1 70 3 66 2 61.2 43.6 34.2 39.5 47 3 49 9 53 55 5 1933 52.0 58.0 52.3 47.7 45.1 56.6 60.9 70.0 80.5 85.8 95.1 Quincy 1929 . . 91.4 109.9 112.4 119 5 124 8 117.6 102.3 112.1 102.8 94.2 96.0 94 2 106 4 1930 87.3 85.4 101.3 106.9 107.2 101.8 66.4 77.4 75.2 70.9 64.8 51.9 83.0 1931 71 70 1 61 9 67 9 74 8 68 9 71 64 62 7 60 3 52 3 48 3 64 4 1932 41.4 42.0 43 4 41.4 41.5 45.9 43.3 42.4 52.2 50.7 53 3 41 8 45.0 1933 33.5 40.1 43.0 50.8 45.8 48.9 55.9 57.6 68.9 72.7 53.1 Rockford 1929 97.0 107.1 109.8 109.3 107.7 103.4 98.9 103.5 98.2 100 4 92.0 85 4 101 5 1930 80.1 81.5 79.5 78.1 77.9 77.1 62.9 62.0 57.6 61.8 57.0 58.3 69 5 1931 51.0 53.2 53.7 51.6 52.5 43.8 42.3 43.2 40.7 39.3 38.0 39.1 45.7 1932 40.0 38.8 38.2 31.2 24.4 22.4 18.8 19.9 19.7 23 9 24 8 23 9 27 2 1933 22.9 24.3 20.2 18.9 23.6 28.4 29.4 33.3 31.4 36.2 36.9 Rock Island 1929... 105.2 102.9 106.6 106.9 104.8 102.3 97.5 81.2 92.2 103.3 99.0 95 2 99 7 1930 98.4 91.2 97.9 88.6 84.4 71.2 47.7 61.7 61.6 54.4 45.5 44.9 70 6 1931 34.6 41.3 44.9 42.7 34 4 33 5 35.4 29.7 33.6 26 5 25 3 24 7 33 9 1932 26.7 22.4 20.3 18.0 16.0 17.2 16.2 17.6 18.1 18.2 20.1 18 4 19 1 1933 12.6 16.4 16.6 18.3 16.6 17.7 14.3 21.0 22.8 23.9 23.4 Springfield 1929. . . 97.8 107.2 109.6 107.7 108.0 111.9 51.9 108.2 104.8 116.2 99.1 97.2 101 6 1930 94.7 97.3 100.7 103.3 81.2 84.0 39.2 79 4 87.0 99 2 78 6 86 9 85 9 1931 75.0 90.9 96.5 101.3 104.4 96.8 122.0 120.0 124.1 94.6 72 3 78 2 98 1932 74.6 75.2 72 9 68.1 56 1 58 7 44 8 57 8 42 2 42 2 51 4 46 2 57 5 1933 46.3 49.1 39.2 32.8 32.2 45.4 47.8 56.8 50.0 47.0 39.2 Sterling-Rock Falls 1929 101.0 96.5 78.5 53.5 30.2 107.8 113.9 78.1 51.0 35.7 110.0 107.3 69.7 44.0 25.0 102.7 85.3 59.8 35.9 28.0 99.6 83.3 54.6 32.5 31.5 96.5 74.8 47.4 29.9 44.8 89.5 61.6 43.5 26.5 46.9 90.0 57.1 39.4 26.7 54.1 87.6 58.4 39.8 20.9 49.7 94.4 69.8 41.2 26.6 50.8 90.7 69.2 47.5 28.3 52.7 99.6 76.3 54.5 32.7 97.4 79.4 54.9 34.0 1930 1931 . 1932 1933 . . . 1934] PRICES AND CONSUMPTION OF MILK 421 Moline payrolls in 1932 were the lowest for any of the cities in- cluded in this study. The manufacture of farm implements, which is the major industry in Moline, fell to an extremely low level. This decline was the result, primarily, of the increased quantities of farm products that were required to buy implements and the small net in- comes, if any, from farming. With increased prices for farm products the market for farm machinery can be expected to improve. One- twelfth of the wage earners engaged in the metals industries and one- thirtieth of all wage earners, in Illinois, are normally employed in the manufacture of farm implements. Peoria. By 1932 factory payrolls in Peoria had declined to 55.5 percent of those for December, 1928 (Fig. 10 and Table 9). Un- like payrolls in most of the other Illinois cities which reached their peak some time in 1929, Peoria payrolls did not reach a peak until April, 1930. This extension of business activity into 1930 resultedl primarily from the filling of large contracts for tractors from the Russian government. After these orders had been filled, payrolls de- clined sharply in 1930, but less rapidly in 1931 and in 1932. In De- cember, 1932, they were 53.0 percent, or slightly more than half, of those in December, 1928. In November, 1933, they had increased to 95.1 percent of those for the base month. Quincy. Factory payrolls in Quincy by 1932 had declined to 45 percent, or slightly less than half, of those for December, 1928 (Fig. 10 and Table 9). They reached a peak of 124.8 percent in May, 1932. During both 1930 and 1931 they fell rapidly but stayed at a relatively even level in 1932. In December, 1932, they were 41.8 percent of those for December, 1928. In November, 1933, they had increased to 53.1 percent of those for the base month. Rockford. Factory payrolls in Rockford had declined by 1932 to 27.2 percent, or to about one-fourth, of those in December, 1928 (Fig. 10 and Table 9). They reached a peak of 109.8 percent in March, 1929. From the latter part of 1929 to the middle of 1932 they declined rapidly, reaching a low of 18.8 percent in July, 1932. In December, 1932, they were 23.9 percent of those for December, 1928, having risen somewhat during the latter part of 1932. In No- vember, 1933, they had increased to 36.9 percent of those for the base month. Rock Island. Factory payrolls in Rock Island fell from an index of 99.7 in 1929 to 19.1 in 1932, a total reduction of about four-fifths (Fig. 10 and Table 9). They reached a peak of 106.9 percent in April, 1929. During the summer of 1930 they declined precipitously until in January, 1931, they were 34.6 percent, or less than one-third, of those in April, 1929. They continued to decline in 1931 and 1932. In De- cember, 1932, they were 18.4 percent, or less than one-fifth, of those 422 BULLETIN 397 [January, in December, 1928. In November, 1933, they had increased to 23.4 per- cent of those for the base month. Springfield. By 1932 factory payrolls in Springfield had declined to 57.5 percent, or to about three-fifths, of those for December, 1928 (Fig. 10 and Table 9). The trend was downward from 1929 to the middle of 1930. A sharp upward movement which followed this down- ward trend reached a peak of 124.1 percent in September, 1931. A drastic decline occurred during the next few months. In December, 1932, payrolls in this city averaged 46.2 percent, or less than two- fifths, of those in December, 1928. In November, 1933, they were 39.2 percent of those for the base month. Springfield payrolls in both 1931 and 1932 were the highest of the fourteen cities included in this study. Sterling-Rock Falls. 1 Factory payrolls in Sterling-Rock Falls fell from an index of 97.4 in 1929 to 34 in 1932, or to about one-third of that for 1929 (Fig. 10 and Table 9). Payrolls in this city reached a peak of 113.9 percent in February, 1930. While each year a seasonal upturn of payrolls has occurred during the winter months, the trend has been sharply downward since February, 1930. In De- cember, 1932, payrolls were 32.7 percent of those in December, 1928. In November, 1933, they had increased to 52.7 percent of those for the base month. Other Cities. Beginning with January, 1933, the Illinois De- partment of Labor has published changes in employment and pay- rolls for Alton, Belleville, Elgin, Freeport, Granite City, Kankakee- TABLE 10. INDEXES OF FACTORY PAYROLLS IN SEVEN ILLINOIS CITIES, BY MONTHS, 1933 1 (December 1932 = 100) City Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Aver- age Alton . 100 Ill 118 123 169 178 167 171 163 173 175 Belleville 62 82 80 84 86 112 117 116 131 136 118 Elgin 55 65 69 65 73 99 100 103 138 150 184 Freeport 84 99 92 79 97 109 112 122 125 122 120 86 98 101 117 123 171 203 223 209 209 195 Kankakee-Bradley. . LaSalle-Peru- Oglesby 85 106 103 102 99 96 106 95 125 90 150 103 119 169 147 177 162 171 164 180 139 171 iCalculated currently from monthly reports of Illinois Department of Labor, Division of Labor Statistics. Bradley, and LaSalle-Peru-Oglesby, in addition to those of cities previously shown. No data for this group of cities are available for earlier years. The course of payrolls for these cities in 1933 is shown in Table 10. Sterling and Rock Falls industries were included together by the classifica- tion of the Division of Labor Statistics of the Illinois Department of Labor. 1934-} PRICES AND CONSUMPTION OF MILK 423 CHANGES IN THE DEMAND FOR MILK AND CREAM Consumers in the United States from 1929 to 1933 experienced a greater reduction in incomes than they have experienced since official measures of purchasing power have been available. As a result of this reduction in income they have been forced to make drastic reductions in expenditures. In the fluid-milk industry these reductions have meant decreases in the per-capita consumption of milk in each market for which sales data are available, in spite of the reduced milk prices that have been in effect. There are two underlying reasons for this decline in milk consumption: (1) the purchasing power of consumers declined far more than did the retail prices of milk; and (2) retail prices of many foods other than milk were reduced more than were those of milk. With less money to spend, consumers turned to the cheaper sources of food. In 1932 the per-capita consumption of milk in Boston was 98.9 percent of that for 1930; in New York, 96.7 percent of that in 1929; in Philadelphia, 90 percent of that in 1929; in San Francisco, 93.9 percent, and in Oakland, Berkeley, and other cities in Alameda county, California, 96.1 percent of that for 1929 (Fig. 11 and Table 11). In Rochester the per-capita consumption of milk in November, 1932, was 88.5 percent of that in November, 1931. BOSTON NEW YORK ROCHESTER .836 .756 .660 UNITED STATES .645 PHILADELPHIA .567 OAKLAND, ETC. .541 SAN FRANCISCO .526 .20 .30 .40 .50 .60 PINTS PER PERSON FIG. 11. DAILY PER-CAPITA CONSUMPTION OF MILK IN Six CITIES AND THE UNITED STATES, 1932 The per-capita consumption of milk in different cities varies widely. For the country as a whole, it is less than half that recommended by nutrition authorities. In many city markets during recent years declines in sales of cream have been greater than those for milk. In 1932 the per-capita con- sumption of cream received in Boston was 90.3 percent of that in 1930; in New York, 90.2 percent of that for 1929; and in Philadelphia, 67.3 percent of that for 1929 (Table 11). In Rochester the per- capita consumption of cream in November, 1932, was 88.0 percent 424 BULLETIN 397 [January, TABLE 11. SUMMARY OF PER-CAPITA CONSUMPTION OF MILK AND CREAM, FACTORY PAYROLLS, RETAIL PRICES OF ALL FOODS, AND RETAIL PRICES OF MILK, IN SEVEN MARKETS IN THE UNITED STATES, 1932 Base period 1932 Daily consump- tion per capita in 1932 Percent of base period Per-capita consumption of milk Boston 1 1930 = 100 98.9 pints .836 New York' 1929 - 100 96 7 756 Philadelphia' 1929 = 100 90 567 1931 - 100 89 3 562 Rochester 4 . 1931 = 100 88 5 660 San Francisco 5 1929 = 100 93.9 .526 1929 - 100 96 1 541 Per-capita consumption of the milk equivalent of cream Boston 1930 = 100 90 3 .720 New York* 1929 - 100 90 2 406 Philadelphia 2 . . . . . . 1929 - 100 67 3 Rochester 4 1931 = 100 88.0 .161 Factory payrolls and retail prices Factory payrolls in United States 6 . . . . 1925-1927 = 100 1925-1927 = 100 1925-1927 = 100 44.2 64.7 77.9 Retail prices of 42 foods 7 'See Table 26. 'See Table 25. "See Table 17, includes table cream. 4 Data for November, 1931, as compared with November, 1932. From Farm Economics, No. 81, Cornell University, June, 1933, p. 1960. 6 See Table 27. 'Data cal- culated from that compiled by the Federal Reserve Board. 'See Table 28. "See Table 29. of that for November, 1931. Losses in cream sales greater than those of milk can be attributed primarily to two factors: (1) cream is more of a luxury than milk; and (2) in general, cream prices have been sustained at levels relatively higher than milk prices, competition hav- ing been less keen in the sale of cream than in the sale of milk. Sales of members of the International Milk Dealers' Association in 1932 were 31.5 percent less than those of 1929 '- 1 Part of the sales of these dealers were supplanted by store sales and by new milk dealers entering the various markets. For the larger commercial fluid markets in the United States the estimated per-capita consumption of milk and cream in 1932 was 10 to 15 percent lower than that a few years earlier. Declines in the consumption of milk and cream during recent years have been due principally to the sustaining of retail prices for these products too high in relation to consumers' purchasing power. Con- sumers' incomes in 1932, as measured by factory payrolls, averaged 'Taken from annual address of the president of the association. American Creamery and Poultry Produce Review, October 26, 1932. 1934~\ PRICES AND CONSUMPTION OF MILK 425 44.2 percent, or less than half of those for 1925-1927, while the retail prices per quart of milk in the United States averaged 77.9 percent, or more than three- fourths, of those in 1925-1927. Expressed other- wise, with 44 percent as much money to spend, consumers in 1932 had to pay 78 percent as much for milk. Moreover other foods were cheaper, the retail price of 42 foods in 1932 averaging 64.7 percent, or slightly less than two-thirds, of those for 1925-1927. This drastic reduction in consumer purchasing power, combined with other changes, has placed the fluid-milk industry in a situation quite different from that of the prosperous period of the twenties and has forced recognition of economic truths and facts which in some cases are in sharp contrast to opinions prevailing in the earlier period. DECLINING POPULATION CURVE CURTAILS POTEN- TIAL MARKET FOR MILK AND CREAM The market demand for any commodity is dependent on the num- ber of persons buying it and the amount which each person will buy. In general the potential market demand for milk is represented by the total population. Consequently changes in population furnish a use- ful measure for determining the probable future demand for market milk. From 1790 to 1880 population in the United States increased an average of 3.1 percent annually. During the next thirty years the average annual increase was 2.2 percent. From 1910 to 1930 the rate of increase had declined to 1.6 percent annually. During the latter part of the decade 1920-1930 the U. S. Bureau of Census estimated the average increase at .71 percent annually. While authorities do not agree on the exact time, they are in general agreement that a stationary population will be reached within twenty-five to forty years. Dr. O. E. Baker, an authority on population trends, expects a stationary population in about a quarter of a century to be followed by a decline. 1 Dr. Louis I. Dublin, statistician of the Metropolitan Life Insurance Company, and his associate, Dr. Latka, have esti- mated that a stationary population will be reached in the United States by 1970. 2 In 1932 the birth rate in the United States was at a lower level than that of France. 1 Measured in actual numbers, the increase in population in the United States in 1932 was less than one million compared with more than two million in 1923. 3 'Baker, O. E. Ratio of Children Under Five Years of Age to Women of Child Bearing Age, Rural and Urban. Address before the Population Associa- tion of America, New York City, April 22, 1932. 'Dublin, Louis I. Birth Control and America's Population. The Forum, November, 1931. 'Jordan, G. L. Changing Food Habits in Relation to Land Utilization in the United States. Unpublished thesis, University of Illinois, 1933. 426 BULLETIN 397 [January, In 1930 the population in Illinois was 7,630,654, or 58 percent above that of 1900 (Table 12). This rate of increase corresponded closely with that for the United States during this period. Within Illinois there has been a wide range in the relative increase in popu- lation of different cities. Ten markets for Illinois milk more than doubled their population during the past thirty years. The relative increase ranged from 110 percent for Springfield to over 700 percent for Granite City. TABLE 12. POPULATION IN THE UNITED STATES AND IN TWENTY-TWO MARKETS FOR ILLINOIS MILK WHICH HAD A POPULATION IN 1930 OF 25,000 OR MoRE 1 1900 1910 1920 1930 Percent increase by 1930 since 1900 1920 "United States 75 994 575 4 821 550 14 210 24 147 17 484 23 286 14 826 1 838 735 16 354 20 754 29 655 22 433 18 607 3 122 29 353 17 309 17 248 56 100 36 252 31 051 19 493 34 159 9 426 575 238 91 972 266 5 638 591 17 528 29 807 21 122 25 768 20 666 2 405 233 27 871 31 140 58 547 25 976 22 089 9 903 34 670 19 521 24 199 66 950 36 587 45 401 24 335 51 678 16 069 687 029 105 710 620 6 483 280 24 682 36 397 24 823 28 725 26 117 3 053 017 33 776 43 818 66 767 27 454 23 824 14 757 38 442 26 054 30 734 76 121 35 978 65 651 35 177 59 183 19 226 772 897 122 775 046 7 630 654 30 151 46 589 28 425 30 930 33 408 3 982 123 36 765 57 510 74 347 35 929 28 830 25 130 42 993 26 180 32 236 104 969 39 241 85 864 37 953 71 864 33 499 822 032 61.5 58.3 112.2 92.9 62.6 32.8 125.3 116.6 124.8 177.1 150.7 60.2 54.9 704.9 46.5 51.2 86.9 87.1 8.2 176.5 94.7 110.4 255.4 42.9 16.1 17.7 22.2 28.0 14.5 7.7 27.9 30.4 8.8 31.2 11.4 30.9 21.0 70.3 11.8 .5 4.9 37.9 9.1 30.8 7.9 21.4 74.2 6.4 Illinois . . . Citiet Alton. Aurora Belleville Blnnmingtnn Champaign-Urbana* Chicago (Cook co.) . Danville Decatur East St. Louis Elgin . ... Galesburg Joliet. . .... LaSalle-Peru-Oglesby 3 Moline Peoria Quincy Rockford Rock Island . Springfield Waukegan St. Louis, Missouri 4 'From U. S. Census. 'Includes population of Champaign and Urbana. Does not include approximately 10,000 students at the University of Illinois. 3 Includes population of LaSalle, Peru, and Oglesby. 4 Does not include population of the suburbs of St. Louis. In 1930 the population of metropolitan St. Louis was 1,293,516. From 1920 to 1930 population in twelve Illinois cities, including Waukegan, Granite City, Peoria, Decatur, Chicago, Elgin, Rockford, Aurora, Champaign- Urbana, Alton, Springfield, and Galesburg, in- creased more rapidly than the average for the state (Fig. 12). Popu- lation in Chicago in 1930 was 30.4 percent higher than in 1920. The population in the eleven cities other than Chicago in 1930 averaged 32.8 percent higher than in 1920. The population in LaSalle-Peru-Oglesby, Moline, Bloomington, Rock Island, Danville, Quincy, East St. Louis, Joliet, and Belleville in- creased less rapidly than the average for the state. 1934] PRICES AND CONSUMPTION OF MILK 427 The fact that population is increasing at a declining rate inten- sifies the problem of bringing about any marked increase in total sales of market milk. Problems of local milk distribution increase when the WAUKEGAN 74 GRANITE CITY 70 PEORIA 38 DECATUR ELGIN ROCKFORD CHICAGO AURORA CHAMPAIGN- URBANA ALTON SPRINGFIELD 21 GALESBURG 21 BELLEVILLE 14 JOLIET E. ST. LOUIS QUINCY DANVILLE ROCK ISLAND 8 BLOOMINGTON 8 MOLINE 5 LASALLE-PERU- I 20 30 PERCENT FIG. 12. PROPORTIONAL INCREASE IN POPULATION OF TWENTY-ONE ILLINOIS CITIES FROM 1920 TO 1930 From 1920 to 1930 the population in Waukegan, Granite City, Peoria, De- catur, Chicago, Elgin, Rockford, Aurora, Champaign-Urbana, Alton, Springfield, and Galesburg increased more rapidly than the average for the state. rate of increase in population declines, since it is less easy for either old or new distributors to find expanding outlets for their products. Dealers who survive under these new conditions are likely to be the ones who have become the most efficient. 428 BULLETIN 397 [January, INCREASED PER-CAPITA CONSUMPTION AS A PO- TENTIAL OUTLET FOR MILK AND CREAM Recognized food authorities such as Drs. E. V. McCollum, Mary Swartz Rose, and H. C. Sherman recommend a quart of milk daily for children and a pint daily for adults. On a weighted basis this amounts to 1.35 pints daily per person (Table 14). According to esti- mates of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics, the daily consumption of milk for 1929-1931 averaged .645 pint per person (Table 13), or less than half that recommended by these authorities. Since popula- tion increases hold little encouragement for a materially greater market, and per-capita consumption is so far below the recognized optimum, it would seem that the greatest opportunity for widening the market for fluid milk lies in increasing the present per-capita con- sumption. To farmers higher per-capita consumption of milk means higher gross incomes since milk utilized in fluid form returns a higher price than that utilized in cream or in manufactured products. Thus in 1933 dairymen supplying market milk to 35 cities in the North-Central states received an average price of $1.50 per 100 pounds of milk used for the bottled and bulk-milk trade. This was 58 cents more per 100 pounds than the average price (92 cents) received in 1933 for milk at condenseries in this area. If costs for hauling milk to the city markets averaged 10 cents more than those for hauling to condens- eries, the net price received by farmers in 1933 for market milk above the average condensery price, was 48 cents per 100 pounds, or about 1 cent a quart. Assuming that the average daily consumption of milk could be increased as much as one-fifth of a pint per person, at the rate of 48 cents per 100 pounds farmers would receive an in- TABLE 13. AVERAGE ESTIMATED CONSUMPTION OF MILK AND CREAM IN THE UNITED STATES, 1929-1931 Whole milk used 1929-1931 Consumption by nonfann population 1 millions of pounds 32 270 Farm consumption* . 11 042 Total consumption of milk and cream 43 312 Milk equivalent of cream consumption 3 12 192 Milk consumption 31 120 Per-capita consumption of milk . 645 pint per day 1 Data from Milk and Butterfat Production and Utilization in the United States, U. S. Bureau of Agricultural Eco- nomics, Nov. 21, 1932, p. 9, Table 6. 2 /W(i., Table 2, p. 5. "In 1931, 6.6894 percent of the total estimated milk equiv- alent of milk and cream consumed in the United States was utilized in ice cream. In 1931, 34.8379 percent of the total milk equivalent of milk and cream (including that utilized in cream) consumed in the New York and Philadelphia markets was utilized in cream. The estimated percentage of the total milk equivalent of milk and cream used in cream, other than that used in ice cream, equals 34.8379 minus 6.6894, or 28.1485. This proportion of cream to total milk equivalent is applied to the total consumption of milk and cream in arriving at the milk equivalent of cream consumption in the United States. 1934] PRICES AND CONSUMPTION OF MILK 429 crease in gross income of about $3,000 a month, or $36,000 a year, for each 100,000 people served. 1 To milk dealers higher per-capita consumption means the oppor- tunity to lower their unit-costs of distribution, and it is therefore to their interests to so adjust their systems of retail distribution as to encourage higher per-capita consumption. TABLE 14. MILK REQUIREMENTS PER CAPITA FOR RECOMMENDED DIET COMPARED WITH PER-CAPITA UTILIZATION OF MILK IN THE UNITED STATES, 1929-1931 Age-group Number* Proportion of total population 1 Amount of milk recom- mended daily per person 2 Weighted daily average Under 18 years 43 015 712 79 759 334 122 775 046 percent 35.04 64.96 100.00 pints 2 1 pints .7008 .6496 1.3504 .645 .705 47.8% Total Milk nnnsnmptinn in the TTniteH St*ti 1929-1931, Net difference - Proportion of actual consumption to recommended con sumption. U. S. Census, 1930. "Recommended by Drs. E. V. McCollum, H. C. Sherman, and M. S. Rose. "See Table 13. Two important economic considerations are involved in increas- ing the consumption of milk; namely, (1) an aggregate increase in consumer purchasing power and a wider distribution of incomes ; (2) a policy of maintaining consumer prices for milk that are not out of line with other retail food prices. The federal government has initiated the policy of increasing the minimum of wages of employees under the National Industrial Re- covery Act. From March to September, 1933, the total purchasing power of consumers in the United States moved upward. If it con- tinues to increase, and the distribution of this income continues to widen, consumers will be able to spend more for milk and meat products. How Can Per-Capita Consumption of Milk Be Increased? The first essential for increasing the per-capita consumption of milk is to assure consumers that only high-quality milk is being sold. Attempts to bring about permanent increases in the consumption of milk without regard to this essential are likely to be abortive, since any unfavorable influence, such as an epidemic of a contagious dis- ease, quickly destroys public confidence in this product. 'From 1930 to 1932 the average daily consumption of milk at Boston was .85 pint per person as compared with .64 pint for the United States from 1929-1931. The net difference in these averages is .21 pint, or about one-fifth pint per person. 430 BULLETIN 397 [January, The second essential for increasing the per-capita consumption of milk is to offer milk at retail milk prices that are not out of line with prices of competitive foods. The past few years have given abundant evidence of the failure of attempts to increase the consumption of milk when high-priced milk has been advertised. Neither farmers nor dealers can afford to spend large sums of money in efforts to increase the consumption of milk unless they can offer a high-quality product at a price that meets the competition of prices for other foods. Assuming that the two essentials mentioned above for increasing the consumption of milk have been met, a well-defined program of education will be necessary to get consumers to spend a greater pro- portion of their income for milk. An educational program of this kind could be administered by such agencies as the national and regional dairy councils working with the consumers' organizations, schools, and possibly with county organizations which have been en- gaged in production-control programs. All expenditures of funds for increasing consumption should be carefully planned in order to in- sure results commensurate with their cost. Units of Land and Labor Necessary to Supply Increased Volume of Milk Coincident with the development of an economic and educational program for increasing the per-capita consumption of milk would come up for consideration the problem of increasing the supply of high-quality milk sufficiently to meet the increased demand. An acre of crop land or the pasture equivalent of crop land, de- voted to milk production, will produce 1,317 pounds of milk annually, according to facts compiled in 1931 by Dr. O. E. Baker. 1 Based upon the 1930 population of 122,775,046 people, 25,792,000 acres of land in the United States (Table 15) would be required to produce the additional volume of milk which the recommended consumption would call for. Studies in various Illinois areas have shown that 1.656 man hours of labor are required to produce 100 pounds of milk (Table 16). At this rate for the United States, 562,510,000 man hours would be re- quired annually to produce the additional volume of milk which the 'Baker, O. E. The Outlook for Land Utilization in the United States. U.S. Dept. Agr. Ext. Serv. Circ. 168, July, 1931, Fig. 21. Dr. Baker shows that 2.35 acres of crop land and 1.6 acres of pasture devoted to milk production are required to produce 1,400,000 calories in the form of milk. Since crop land produces 76.5 percent of this total heat value, a total of 3.27 acres of crop land, or pasture equivalent of crop land, is necessary to produce 1,400,000 calories. The number of calories supplied per acre by this crop land would be 428,134. As there are 325 calories in a pound of milk, an acre of crop land or its equivalent would produce 1,317 pounds of milk according to this basis. PRICES AND CONSUMPTION OF MILK 431 TABLE 15. ADDITIONAL LAND AND LABOR REQUIRED TO PRODUCE CERTAIN VOLUMES OF MILK IN EXCESS OF PRESENT ESTIMATED CONSUMPTION Assuming additional consumption were following proportions of recommended additional consumption Land requirements Labor requirements Illinois United States Illinois United States percent acres acres thousands of man hours 25 50 75 100 284 000 567 000 851 000 1 134 000 6 448 000 12 896 000 19 344 000 25 792 000 7 611 15 222 22 832 30 443 140 628 281 255 421 882 562 510 TABLE 16. LABOR REQUIRED TO PRODUCE MILK IN FOUR ILLINOIS AREAS, 1926-1928 1 Area Man hours per cow Pounds of milk per cow Man hours per 100 pounds milk Approximate number of dairy farms Farms times man hours per 100 pounds milk Chicago 139 8 064 1 72 7 150 12 298 Northern Illinois outside Chicago. . . . St. Louis 115 134 7 784 6 976 1.48 1 92 3 750 4 940 5 550 9 485 Other 81 5 434 1 49 6 600 9 834 Total 22 440 37 167 1 656 'Based upon data compiled by the division of Farm Organization and Management and the Department of Dairy Husbandry, University of Illinois. recommended consumption would call for, or an equivalent of about 200,000 men working the length of day usual in this enterprise. Under conditions of free competition between different farm products there would be little difficulty in increasing the volume of milk in any given marketing area to the amount required for the increased consumption indicated above, for in most areas the greater income that is obtainable from milk directed to fluid uses over that sold for manufacturing purposes would insure a shifting to the more profitable outlet. The estimated daily consumption of milk in Illinois, based upon 1927 sales data, is .74 pint per capita, 1 as compared with .64 pint for the United States. Assuming that the optimum consumption of milk is 1.35 pints a day, it is .61 pint a day more than the estimated per-capita consumption in Illinois. Assuming further that the productivity of Illinois land is 23.1 percent 2 higher than that for the United States, an 'Based on data included in 111. Agr. Exp. Sta. Bui. 318, 1928, p. 210, Table 14. 'Calculated on the basis of total average yields per acre of corn and oats and one-third the average acre-yield of wheat, Illinois yields of these crops from 1924 to 1931 averaged 23.1 percent higher per acre than yields for the United States during the same period. 432 BULLETIN 397 [January, acre of this land devoted to the production of milk would yield 1,621 pounds of milk annually. Based upon Illinois population in 1930 of 7,630,654 people, 1,134,000 acres of Illinois land would be required to produce the additional amount of milk which the recommended con- sumption would call for (Table 15). The amount of man labor re- quired annually in Illinois to produce this volume of milk would be 30,443,000 hours. Assuming that the consumption of milk could be increased to the amount recommended, a question which may logically be raised is: What would be the effect of the increased use of milk on the con- sumption of other foods? One answer given to this question by food authorities is that the increased use of milk probably would have relatively little effect upon the consumption of other foods since so many people have been living on unbalanced diets to which the addition of milk would, in large part, be a supplementary rather than a sub- stitute food. Practically speaking, it is improbable that the consumption of milk can be increased within a few years to the amount recommended by food authorities. It can be materially increased, however, if minimum wages and aggregate consumer purchasing power are materially in- creased. The amounts of land and labor which w r ould be utilized with certain fractional increases in the per-capita consumption of milk are shown in Table 15. TRENDS IN MILK CONSUMPTION IN INDIVIDUAL CITIES Consumption of Milk and Cream at Peoria The consumption of milk and table cream in the Peoria market moved upward from October, 1928, to May, 1930. Between June and December, 1930, however, a decline of 13.1 percent was precipitated by a decline of 38 percent in factory payrolls in Peoria, which oc- curred from April to November, 1930. (Fig. 13 and Appendix Tables 42 and 43). The retail price of milk remained at 13 cents a quart during this period. In April, 1931, the retail price of milk was reduced from 13 to 10 cents a quart. Prices of other retail units of milk and cream which had not been changed previously were reduced in the same proportions. These reductions in retail prices, combined with a house-to-house sales campaign by the principal dealers, resulted in a 23-percent in- crease in sales between March and August, 1931. This phenomenal increase in sales, however, was of a temporary nature. The drastic decline of 57.4 percent in local payrolls which occurred between May, 1931, and August, 1932, resulted in a 34-percent decline in sales be- tween the peak month of August, 1931, and the low month of Feb- PRICES AND CONSUMPTION OF MILK 1927 1929 1932 1933 FIG. 13. CONSUMPTION OF MILK AND CREAM, FACTORY PAYROLLS, AND RETAIL PRICES OF MILK AT PEORIA, BY MONTHS, 1927-1933 The drastic decline of factory payrolls in Peoria in 1930 precipitated a similar decline in the consumption of milk and table cream in this market. A reduction of 3 cents in the retail price of a quart of milk in April, 1931, coupled with a house-to-house sales campaign, caused a temporary increase in milk sales. This increase was followed, however, by a drastic decline as the course of payrolls in this market continued downward. TABLE 17.- -DAILY PER-CAPITA CONSUMPTION OF MILK AND TABLE CREAM IN THE PEORIA MARKET, 1927-1932 Year Annual consump- tion of milk and table cream 1 Daily consumption Population* Daily per-capita consumption 1927 thoutandt of poundt 23 374 pintt 59 570 99 944 pintt .596 1928 23 293 59 364 101 619 .584 1929 24 289 61 902 103 294 .599 1930... 25 819 65 802 104 969 .627 1931 26 310 67 053 106 644 .629 1932 23 931 60 823 108 319 .562 able 42. Population for 1930 from U. S. Census. According to the Bureau of Census estimates, the popu- lation in the United States increased only 44.2 percent as rapidly during the latter part of the decade 1920-1930 as it did for the decade as a whole. Hence the population of Peoria for years other than 1930 was interpolated on a basis of 44.2 percent of the average annual increase from 1920 to 1930. ruary, 1933. During this period the retail price of milk remained at 10 cents a quart. Sales in Peoria from January to June, 1933, were 12 percent lower than the average of those of corresponding months during 1927-1929. 434 BULLETIN 397 [January, By August, 1933, sales of milk and cream had increased to 98 percent of those in August, 1925-1927. Factory payrolls in Peoria in August, 1933, were 33 percent higher than those of May. Part of the increase in sales of milk and cream can be attributed to the increase in con- sumers' incomes. Consumption of Milk and Cream at New York and Philadelphia The Situation in 1929-1932. During the last six months of 1932 milk receipts at New York, as reported by the American Creamery and Poultry Produce Review, averaged 96.8 percent of those for the same months in 1929, which was a decrease of 3.2 percent (Fig. 14 and Table 18). For a long time previous to this period, with the exception of the first half of 1932, the trend in total milk receipts in this city liiO 18 - .^MILK RE :EIPTS ^ . ^ / V *^ SAME MONTH ^V IOPO- 18-41 .100 16 7*\y^\ .! T AM \ A 1 J ^\/\ ^\V_ & H QQ v/ \ A I ' \ ^ LU o C > f/ \ A i' ^^- RETAIL PR OF MILK CE CL (N~ r >, rA r^ - 3s V s \ V* 1 ^ALL F SAME K 925-19 >\ OODS 4ONTH >7 = IOO - - PAYROL 923-19 -A 25-IOO !K \ r \ \ \ n "A / V 1 1925 '26 '27 '26 29 '30 '31 '32 1933 FIG. 28. AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES OF 42 FOODS AND VOLUME OF FACTORY PAYROLLS IN THE UNITED STATES, BY MONTHS, 1925-1933 Payrolls in the United States declined much more rapidly from 1929 to 1933 than did retail food prices. While unemployment relief funds have absorbed a part of this difference, lower incomes to masses of consumers have meant a lower standard of living. Retail prices of all foods in the United States declined from an index of 97 in March, 1930, to 58 in March, 1933 (Table 28). In other words, with the payrolls in March, 1933, consumers could buy only two-thirds as much food as they could with the payrolls three years earlier. The disparity between payrolls and retail food prices was due primarily to inflexibility in costs of retail distribution, since changes in farm incomes from foods corresponded closely to changes in industrial incomes during this period. 458 BULLETIN 397 [January, As consumer incomes and retail prices of foods rise, distribution costs will tend to rise more slowly than the farm price for foods, and the wide disparity between payrolls and retail food prices will tend to disappear. Part of the gap in payrolls and retail food prices is now being filled with funds for unemployment relief. In general, retail food prices in different cities follow each other closely tho consumer incomes may vary widely. This is because of the intense retail competition in the sale of foods, combined with the large volume of foods available for sale. Individual attempts on the part no 100 90 I- bJ o 70 Q. 50 110 K>0 90 H LJ o 2J70 a. 50 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 FIG. 29. AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES OF 42 FOODS IN THE UNITED STATES AND CHICAGO, AND IN PEORIA AND CHICAGO, BY MONTHS, 1925-1933 Because competition in retail distribution of foods is exceedingly keen, retail food prices tend to change simultaneously in different cities and in the country as a whole. of food retailers to maintain prices much higher than those of their competitors would be disastrous for them. The close correspondence between the movement of retail food prices in Chicago and Peoria and in Chicago and the United States are shown in Fig. 29. Factory payrolls in Chicago in 1932 averaged 35 percent of those 1934} PRICES AND CONSUMPTION OF MILK 459 for December, 1928; in Peoria, 56 percent; and in the United States, 43 percent. Peoria payrolls in 1932 were thus considerably higher than those for Chicago or for the United States (Figs. 28 and 30). 100 40 1925 '26 '27 '28 '30 '31 '32 1933 FIG. 30. FACTORY PAYROLLS AND AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES OF 42 FOODS IN CHICAGO AND PEORIA, BY MONTHS, 1925-1933 From 1929 to 1933 payrolls at Chicago fell more rapidly than those at Peoria. Since retail food prices in these cities changed at about the same rate, the problem of providing food to the unemployed has been far greater, pro- portionately, in Chicago than in Peoria. The disparity between retail prices for individual commodities may be greater than that for all foods. Thus the retail prices of evapo- 460 BULLETIN 397 [January, rated milk in Chicago were sustained higher than those in Peoria from 1927 to 1931. This divergence narrowed in 1930 and 1931, however, and by the latter part of 1932 price movements for this product in the two cities synchronized quite closely. Evaporated Milk as a Competitor of Fluid Milk Evaporated milk is probably the principal direct competitor of whole milk. The apparent per-capita consumption of condensed and evaporated milk in the United States in 1932 was 97.6 percent, or only slightly less than that for 1929. The commercial market for this product has been sustained at a high level during a period when for the larger city markets the commercial outlets for whole milk and cream declined from 10 to 15 percent. 1 This difference in apparent TABLE 37. COMPARISON OF AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES OF EVAPORATED MILK, BUTTER, AND WHOLE MILK IN THE UNITED STATES, 1929-1932 1 Year Average retail price Average retail price Average retail price 14H-ounce can of evaporated milk Percent of 1925-1927 Per quart of whole milk Percent of 1925-1927 Per pound of butter Percent of 1925-1927 1929 . . . emit 9.9 9.2 8.2 6.9 95 88 79 66 centt 14.3 14.0 12.3 10.9 102 100 88 78 centt 55.1 46.1 35.4 27.4 101 85 65 50 1930 1931 1932 "From current reports of U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. consumption can be attributed largely to the differences in retail prices which have prevailed for these two commodities. Thus in 1932 the average retail price of evaporated milk in the United States was 6.9 cents a 14i^-ounce can (Table 37). This was 66 percent, or about two-thirds, of that for 1925-1927. The average price per retail quart of milk in 1932 was 10.9 cents. This was 78 percent of that for 1925-1927 (Table 30), or 18 percent higher than the relative price for evaporated milk. From January, 1930, to January, 1932, the relative price of evapo- rated milk in Chicago was considerably lower than that of whole milk (Fig. 31, Table 33, and Appendix Table 58). Part of this dis- parity, however, largely disappeared when the retail price of milk was reduced from 1 1 to 9 cents a quart in January, 1933. The rise in prices of evaporated milk in 1933 partly offset the increase of one cent a quart of whole milk which occurred in May, 1933, in this market. Retail prices of evaporated milk in Peoria declined rapidly during 'See page 28. 1934] PRICES AND CONSUMPTION OF MILK 461 the latter part of 1929 and in 1930 (Fig. 31 and Appendix Table 61). With payrolls at a high level during the early part of 1930 the lowered evaporated milk prices apparently had no effect upon sales of whole milk and table cream. From September, 1930, to March, 1931, how- 110 1925 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30 '31 '32 1933 FIG. 31. RETAIL PRICES OF MILK AND INDEXES OF AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES OF EVAPORATED MILK AT CHICAGO AND PEORIA, BY MONTHS, 1925-1933 Consumers usually turn first to evaporated milk when looking for a sub- stitute for whole milk. Evaporated milk has been cheaper than whole milk in both Chicago and Peoria since 1930. ever, retail prices of evaporated milk averaged only 7.9 cents a can, or about three-fourths of the retail price of a quart of whole milk. Tho no data are available as proof, it is probable that during this 462 BULLETIN 397 period some Peoria consumers substituted evaporated milk for at least part of their usual purchases of whole milk and cream. From April, 1931, to April, 1932, evaporated milk prices in Peoria were high in relation to the retail price of whole milk. Hence com- petition between evaporated milk and whole milk during the intensive sales campaign in the summer of 1931 was negligible. From May, 1932, however, until April, 1933, the retail price per can of evaporated milk averaged only 6.3 cents, or less than two-thirds the retail price of whole milk, which remained at 10 cents a quart. With the rise in the price of evaporated milk since April, 1933, the major part of the ad- vantage which evaporated milk had over whole milk in Peoria disap- peared. On the basis of food value, a 14i/2~ounce can of evaporated milk is equal to about a quart of whole milk. At 6.9 cents a can and 10.9 cents a quart, whole milk in 1932 was about 60 percent higher per unit of food value than evaporated milk. For drinking purposes, how- ever, the majority of consumers prefer whole milk to evaporated milk. This fact probably will continue to permit some differential to exist between the retail prices of these two commodities without bringing them into direct competition. Any attempt, however, to hold the re- tail price of whole milk too high in relation to that for evaporated milk is likely to encourage increased sales of the canned product and a decline in the sales of w r hole milk. Competition of Butter and Oleomargarine When consumption of milk or cream declines, most of the milk thus withdrawn from fluid outlets is manufactured into butter. Like- wise when milk shortages develop, milk that otherwise would have been manufactured into butter is frequently diverted to fluid uses. Hence, while butter is not in direct competition With fluid milk, over a period of time a close relationship does exist between the prices of these products. The rapid decline in retail butter prices from 1929 to 1933 precipi- tated a similar decline in retail prices of oleomargarine. Thus the retail price of butter in Chicago declined from 57.1 cents a pound in March, 1929, to 24.4 cents a pound in March, 1933 (Table 62). From 26.6 cents a pound in March, 1929, the retail price of oleomargarine in Chicago declined to 12.9 cents a pound in March, 1933 (Table 64). Similar reductions in retail prices of butter and oleomargarine were experi- enced at Peoria (Fig. 32 and Tables 66 and 68). These reductions in prices were general thruout the country. Many consumers apparently prefer butter to oleomargarine when retail butter prices are as low relatively as those for this competitive product. Apparently a differential advantage in oleomargarine prices is necessary to cause increased consumption of this commodity. 1934] PRICES AND CONSUMPTION OF MILK 463 1925 27 '28 32 1933 '29 'SO '3 FIG. 32. RETAIL PRICES OF BUTTER AND OLEOMARGARINE AT CHICAGO AND PEORIA, 1925-1933 Retail prices of oleomargarine have followed the course of retail butter prices closely during the past three and one-half years. 464 BULLETIN 397 [January, Competition of Bread in Chicago and Peoria Retail prices of bread in both Chicago and Peoria were reduced more from 1929 to 1933 than those for milk, altho in Peoria the retail price of milk was relatively lower than bread prices from April to Q 210 ~ l -u r PEORIA 1925 '26 27 '28 '29 '30 '32 1933 FIG. 33. RETAIL PRICES OF BREAD AND MILK AT CHICAGO AND PEORIA, BY MONTHS, 1925-1933 The courses of the retail prices of bread and milk have been quite similar during recent years. December, 1931 (Fig. 33 and Appendix Tables 70 and 72). The in- crease in the retail prices of bread in Peoria in the summer of 1933 removed, in large part, the disparity which had existed between these prices. 1934~] PRICES AND CONSUMPTION OF MILK 465 SUMMARY Welfare of Dairyman as Related to Consumers' Incomes. Con- sumers' expenditures for butter in the United States from 1920 to 1933 showed practically the same changes as those of the indexes of industrial payrolls. Since butter is the price-maker for a large pro- portion of milk, cream, and other dairy products sold, this indicates the vital significance which changes in industrial incomes have upon the economic welfare of dairymen and those handling dairy products. Reductions in industrial payrolls from 1929 to 1933 were far greater in some cities than in others. In cities where payrolls declined most consumers' expenditures for milk and its products also declined most. Part of these reductions have been borne by dairymen and dis- tributors as the result of lower prices and reduced consumption, and part have been offset by relief funds allocated for milk and its products. Industrial payrolls have declined most in cities whose principal industries manufacture durable goods, namely, goods that are con- sumed over a period of years. Cities like Chicago, Detroit, Pittsburgh, and Milwaukee, and Rock Island, and Joliet, Illinois, where the iron and steel industries predominate, suffered most from 1929 to 1933. Cities like Philadelphia, New York, and Baltimore, and Peoria, Bloom- ington, and Springfield, Illinois, producing goods quickly consumed, such as foods and textile products, suffered much less during this period. Market Demand for Milk Elastic. Declining consumer purchasing power since 1929 has been accompanied by a significant decline in the market demand for milk. Major reductions in purchasing power -un- accompanied by reductions in milk prices have been followed by marked decreases in the consumption of milk. Important reductions in the prices of substitute foods have been accompanied by reduc- tions in sales of milk when milk prices were not adjusted proportion- ately. Effect of Store Sales on Demand. During recent years compe- tition among stores selling milk and cream has been one of the most influential factors in bringing about rapid changes in retail prices of milk and cream in response to changes in consumer purchasing power. During the past decade store sales have constituted a larger part of the total sales of milk in Boston and New York than at any other large city market for which market sales data have been available. Coinci- dent with this circumstance is the fact that the per-capita consump- tion of milk in these markets during recent years has been higher than that in any other market for which sales data are available. In 1932 the per-capita consumption of milk in New York averaged 33.3 per- cent higher, and at Boston 47.2 percent higher, than that at .Phila- 466 BULLETIN 397 [January, delphia, where store sales constituted only a small part of the total sales. Instead of tending to reduce sales, store sales at prices below wagon prices have been at least partly responsible for the higher per- capita consumption of milk at Boston and New York. Population and Future Market Outlets.- While the potential outlet in the United States for milk is increasing, it is doing so at a declining rate, since the population, while still increasing, is increasing at a de- clining rate. According to estimates of the U. S. Bureau of Census, during the latter part of the decade 1920-1930 population increased less than half as rapidly as it did during the decade as a whole. This declining population curve intensifies the problem of bringing about any marked increase in total sales of market milk. CONCLUSIONS Out of a wide choice of foods the mass of consumers regularly buy only those which appear to them to give the greatest value for the money spent. Expressed otherwise, the demand for different foods is highly elastic and consequently competition between different foods is exceedingly keen, especially when consumer incomes are low. The direct result of this competitive force is evidenced by the higher per- capita consumption of milk and cream in specific cities where prices to consumers over a period of years have been kept relatively low. Because of declining incomes from 1929 to 1933, consumers have been forced to use the greatest care in selecting foods for purchase. They have been financially unable to buy high-priced foods. Conse- quently markets in which prices for milk and cream were most quickly adjusted to correspond with reduced incomes have suffered least from declines in the consumption of these products. In some markets it has been assumed that the 1929 per-capita consumption of milk, or that of some corresponding period, could be considered a standard volume, and that building up sales to that volume was an optimum goal for those interested in the dairy industry. As a matter of fact, however, the 1929 per-capita consumption in most markets was less than half that recommended by nutrition au- thorities as desirable. It would seem, therefore, that a long-time pro- gram of expansion for the fluid-milk industry should be based on policies that not only will help to regain sales that have been lost but that will also increase the per-capita consumption of milk above any amounts heretofore attained. In considering ways of increasing the per-capita consumption of milk one important question is: What type or types of retail distribu- tion service are to the best interests of consumers? The answer is that those types of service which in the long run will tend to bring 1934] PRICES AND CONSUMPTION OF MILK 467 about the highest per-capita consumption of high-quality milk are the types that are to the best interests of consumers. For the eastern milk markets the best evidence now available indicates that the highest per-capita consumption of milk will be attained in cities that provide both store and home delivery service, assuming that consumers who are willing to forego part of the service of delivery by buying at stores will be rewarded by being able to buy at lower prices. The general agreement among nutrition authorities that a higher consumption of milk would raise the general level of health gives the fluid-milk industry a scientific basis for encouraging people to use more milk. On the other hand, there is abundant evidence of the futility of trying to sell greater volumes of milk at prices that con- sumers do not consider in line with the prices of other foods. In spite of the high food value of milk and its important place in a well- rounded diet, there is no reason to believe that the reactions of con- sumers to price will be materially different in the next few years than the}' have been in the past. Consumers will continue to compare retail prices of milk with prices for butter, eggs, meat, and other foods which they use daily. If people are to be induced to use more milk, prices must be kept at a level which consumers consider reasonably low in relation to prices of competitive foods. 468 BULLETIN 397 [January, APPENDIX TABLE 38. COMPONENT COSTS OF 1,000 POUNDS OF AN ILLINOIS DAIRY RATION, DAIRY RATION PRICE INDEX, AND POUNDS OF RATION THAT 100 POUNDS OF MILK WOULD BUY, 1910-1932 1 Year Costs of compOHents of 1,000 pounds of a recommended dairy ration 1 Dairy ration price index Milk price index 2 Pounds of ration that 100 pounds milk would buy Bran Oil Meal Corn Oats Total (1921-1929 = 100) 1910... 800 pounds $3.17 3.43 3.47 3.00 3.46 3.27 3.38 5.36 5.16 6.40 6.83 2.75 3.29 4.15 3.77 4.11 3.77 4.42 4.95 4.28 3.57 2.23 1.66 175 pounds $2.84 2.92 2.88 2.38 2.58 3.01 3.07 4.30 4.97 6.38 5.85 3.36 4.29 4.15 3.93 3.82 4.08 4.15 4.55 4.88 4.02 2.56 2.20 soo pounds $2.84 2.68 3.37 3.05 3.59 3.64 3.91 7.45 7.02 7.98 7.23 2.62 2.84 3.91 4.61 4.98 3.37 3.96 4 55 4.50 3.91 2.41 1.18 tts pounds $2.60 2.46 2.88 . 2.46 2.74 3.02 2.95 4.22 5.13 4.57 5.20 2.32 2.32 2.81 3.16 2.95 2.53 2.95 3.23 2.95 2.46 1.55 1.05 1000 pounds $11.45 11.49 12.60 10.89 12.37 12.94 13.31 21.33 22.28 25.33 25.11 11.05 12.74 15.02 15.47 15.86 13.75 14.48 17.28 16.61 13.96 8.75 6.09 75 76 83 72 81 85 87 140 147 167 165 73 84 99 102 104 90 95 114 109 92 58 40 65 65 68 68 69^ 69 71 88 103 120 127 107 92 103 103 98 97 98 100 101 92 74 59 134.5 133.2 127.0 147.8 136.6 126.0 125.5 97.0 108.6 111.7 119.5 228.0 170.3 161.8 156.4 145.6 164.1 160.2 136.0 143.3 155.4 198.8 228.2 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 . . . 1925 1926... 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 .. . 'Recommended in 111. Agr. Exp. Sta. Circ. 372, p. 10, No. 16. Prices for standard bran and linseed oil meal are as quoted at Chicago in Crops and Markets, U. S. Department of Agriculture. Illinois farm prices as reported by the Illinois Department of Agriculture were used for corn and oats. 2 From Illinois Crop and Livestock Statistics, Circ. 435, p. 144. 'Estimate. TABLE 39. AVERAGE PRICE, PER 1,000 POUNDS, OF ILLINOIS DAIRY RATION, BY MONTHS, 1929-1933 1 Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Aver- age Average 1921-1929.. 1929 $15.48 17.16 $15.45 17.53 $15.38 16.96 $15.11 15.86 $15.26 15.43 $14.96 15.36 $14.95 16.66 $14.95 16.85 $14.98 17.74 $14.99 17.27 $15.25 16.28 $15.46 15.95 $15.20 16.61 1930 15.63 15.08 14.34 15.74 14.67 13.73 12.67 14.77 14.34 13.16 11.61 11.43 13.96 1931 11.00 10.55 10.67 10.64 9.33 8.38 8.09 7.55 6.98 6.49 8.02 7.53 8.75 1932 7.55 7.18 7.22 7.31 6.49 5.85 5.60 5.57 5.48 4.93 4.89 4.62 6.09 1933 4.62 4.89 5.17 6.18 7.49 7.67 11.47 10.31 9.73 8.70 !See Table 38, footnote 1. 19341 PRICES AND CONSUMPTION OF MILK 469 TABLE 40. INDEXES OF COST OF AN ILLINOIS DAIRY RATION, BY MONTHS, 1929-1933 (Same month 1921-1929 = 100) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept Oct. Nov. Dec. Aver- age 1929... Ill 113 110 105 101 103 111 113 118 115 107 103 109 1930 101 98 93 104 96 92 85 99 96 88 76 74 92 1931 71 68 69 70 61 56 54 51 47 43 53 49 58 1932 49 46 47 48 43 39 37 37 37 33 32 30 40 1933 30 32 34 41 49 51 77 69 65 58 TABLE 41. INDEXES OF ILLINOIS FARM PRICE OF MILK, BY MONTHS, 1929-1933 1 (Same month 1921-1929 = 100) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. NOT. Dec. Aver- age 1929. . . 97 101 101 103 107 101 98 100 102 101 102 100 101 1930 95 91 92 90 96 88 91 89 94 99 91 88 92 1931 77 73 74 73 78 71 73 74 75 75 73 71 74 1932 64 63 62 64 66 58 60 56 56 56 54 48 59 1933 46 45 45 47 53 54 60 59 58 60 "From Illinois Crop and Livetiock Statietici, Circ. 435, and from monthly reports of the Illinois Department of Agriculture. TABLE 42. CONSUMPTION OF MILK AND MILK EQUIVALENT OF TABLE CREAM AT THE PEORIA MARKET, JANUARY, 1927, TO AUGUST, 1933 1 (Thousands of pounds) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. NOT. Dec. Total 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 2 061 1 977 1 939 2 191 2 072 2 177 1 732 1 824 1 953 1 799 2 003 1 849 2 024 1 520 2 021 1 982 2 Oil 2 215 2 055 2 112 1 736 1 972 1 932 1 972 2 197 2 254 2 128 1 842 2 015 2 032 2 034 2 292 2 284 2 155 1 816 1 912 1 896 1 890 2 201 2 221 2 041 1 789 1 920 1 959 1 893 2 185 2 275 1 990 1 848 1 852 1 892 2 076 2 141 2 438 1 999 1 894 1 891 1 868 2 085 2 102 2 254 1 889 1 943 1 906 2 230 2 156 2 259 1 926 1 953 1 948 2 181 2 080 2 138 1 809 2 010 1 948 2 179 2 057 2 211 1 800 23 374 23 293 24 289 25 819 26310 23 931 iData are based upon sales as reported by contracting dealers to the Illinois Milk Producers Association, plus weighted estimate of other sales. Weighting was effected by (1) adding 10 percent to reported sales of contracting dealers to adjust for milk sold outside of the Association during the entire period and (2) adding 40 percent of the dif- ference between sales of contracting dealers in 1931 and those for corresponding months in 1932 and 1933 in order to adjust for estimated increase in sales of non contracted milk since 1931. These proportions were based upon information from the Peoria Board of Health, from the Illinois Milk Producers Association, and from an official of one of the princi- pal contracting dealers. 470 BULLETIN 397 [January, TABLE 43. INDEXES OF CONSUMPTION OF MILK AND TABLE CREAM AT THE PEORIA MARKET, JANUARY, 1927 AUGUST, 1933 (Same month 1927-1929 = 100) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Aver- age 1927. . . 103 99 101 101 99 101 100 96 97 96 96 98 99 1928 99 103 99 99 100 101 102 98 96 94 96 95 99 1929 97 98 100 101 100 99 98 107 107 110 108 106 103 1930 110 109 110 112 113 116 114 110 108 106 103 101 109 1931 104 101 102 115 113 117 118 126 116 112 106 108 111 1932 109 106 1 105 109 106 107 103 103 97 95 89 88 101 1933 87 83 87 94 90 94 96 98 !Corrected to 28-day basis. TABLE 44. MILK RECEIPTS AT NEW YORK, BY MONTHS, 1929- 1933 1 (Thousands of 40-quart units) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Total 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 2 838 2 888 2 911 3 012 2 739 2 615 2 659 2 683 2 828 2 557 2 952 2 990 3 000 3 045 2 813 2 834 2 875 2 935 2 881 2 739 3 013 3 176 3 105 3 044 3 044 3 133 3 114 3 112 2 986 2 967 3 060 3 144 3 200 3 028 2 835 2 935 2 990 3 061 2 970 2 863 2 977 3 087 3 069 2 893 2 774 2 988 3 022 3 048 2 847 2 840 2 883 2 897 2 916 2 694 2 871 2 924 2 969 2 721 35 099 35 766 36 009 34 949 'Corrected data for 1929^1930 taken from Farm Economic*, No. 74, Cornell University, p. 1709. Data for 1931 to February, 1933 from American Creamery and Poultry Produce Review, March 29, 1933, p. 760. Data for March, 1933, to date from later issues of this publication. TABLE 45. INDEXES OF MILK RECEIPTS AT NEW YORK, BY MONTHS, 1929-1933 (Same month 1929-1931 = 100) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Aver- age 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 98.6 100.3 101.0 104.6 95.2 98.9 100.4 100.7 103.21 96 6 98.8 100.1 101.1 102.0 94 2 98.5 100.0 101.5 100.1 95 2 97.5 102.7 99.8 98.5 98 5 100.8 100.2 99.0 96.1 95 4 98.0 100.7 101.3 97.0 90 8 98.4 100.2 101.4 99.5 96 97.7 101.3 101.0 94.9 91 98.8 100.0 101.2 94.2 93 9 99.4 100.0 100 6 92.9 98.2 100.0 101.7 93.1 98.8 100.2 100.9 98.2 'Corrected to 28-day basis. 1934] PRICES AND CONSUMPTION OF MILK 471 TABLE 46. RECEIPTS OF FLUID MILK AT PHILADELPHIA, BY MONTHS, 1929-1933 1 (Thousands of 40-quart units) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Total 1929 1930 587.9 614 5 565.1 557 638.1 628 4 616.6 607 7 646.8 651 8 647.9 617 624.7 616 7 614.8 596 9 618.1 620 3 640.7 644 4 614.4 618 2 619.8 622 3 7435.1 7395 3 1931 617.5 560 8 630 2 607 6 629 7 605 4 599 8 584 1 604 6 620 4 590 6 593 7243 7 1932 1933 588.9 568.9 558.7 518.0 599.0 583.6 565.8 569.7 613.4 611.0 578.7 580.1 569.8 572.5 541.8 556.6 538.1 545.1 562.6 573.7 554.9 552.8 566.2 555.5 6838.1 6787.5 'As reported by U. S. Bureau of Agricultural Economics. Data for 1929 and 1930 obtained from U. S. D. A. Yearbooks for 1930 and 1931. Later data taken from current reports published by the Bureau. Milk receipts at Philadelphia are also reported annually by the Philadelphia Milk Exchange. These receipts (in millions of quarts) were reported as follows: 1929, 280; 1930, 266; 1931, 271; and 1932, 260. These reports cover a somewhat different metropolitan area than those shown in the above table. In 1932 milk receipts, as reported by the Milk Exchange, were 7.1 percent lower than those for 1929; while 1932 milk receipts, as shown in the federal reports, averaged 7.9 percent less than those for 1929. TABLE 47. INDEXES OF RECEIPTS OF FLUID MILK AT PHILADELPHIA, BY MONTHS, 1929-1933 (Same month 1929-1931 = 100) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Aver- age 1929 96.9 100.7 100.9 101.0 100.6 103.9 101.8 102.7 100.6 100.9 101.1 101.3 101.1 1930 101.3 99.3 99.4 99.5 101.4 99.0 100.5 99.7 101.0 101.4 101.7 101.7 100.5 1931 101.8 100.0 99.7 99.5 98.0 97.1 97.7 97.6 98.4 97.7 97.2 97.0 98.4 1932 97.1 96.01 94.7 92.6 95.4 92.8 92.8 90.5 87.6 88.6 91.3 92.6 92.9 1933 93.8 92.3 92.3 93.3 95.1 93.1 93.3 93.0 88.7 90.3 91.0 90.8 92.3 'Corrected to 28-day basis. TABLE 48. RECEIPTS OF CREAM 1 AT THE NEW YORK MARKET, BY MONTHS, 1929-1933 2 (Hundreds of 40-quart units) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Total 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 350 473 444 662 318 1 377 1 364 1 462 1 563 1 269 795 879 729 685 432 2 035 1 913 2 013 1 753 1 440 2 655 2 951 2 486 2 350 1 909 3 015 2 785 2 532 2 391 1 878 2 614 2 458 2 274 2 036 1 710 2 153 1 967 2 006 1 888 1 591 1 933 1 710 1 864 1 569 1 532 1 539 1 599 1 746 1 411 1 308 1 427 1 386 1 525 1 216 1 395 1 369 1 534 1 241 23 288 22 854 22 615 20 765 'Receipts of plain condensed milk are included with cream receipts. J As reported by the American Creamery and Produce Review. Data for January, 1929, to December, 1930, from Farm Economics, No. 74, Cornell University, p. 1709. Data from January, 1931, to March, 1933, from American Creamery and Produce Review, March, 1933, p. 760. Later data taken from current issues of this publication. 472 BULLETIN 397 [January, TABLE 49. INDEXES OF RECEIPTS OF CREAM AT THE NEW YORK MARKET, BY MONTHS, 1929-1933 (Same month 1929-1931 = 100) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Aver- age 1929 95 1 98 5 99 8 102 5 98 6 108 7 106 9 105 5 105 5 94 7 99 7 97 8 101 9 1930 103.8 97.5 104.4 96.4 109.5 100.5 100.5 96.4 93.3 98.4 96 9 95 9 99 9 1931 101 3 104 95 8 101 1 91 9 90 8 92 6 98 1 101 2 106 9 103 4 106 3 98 2 1932 117.1 107 9 l 93.7 88.3 87 2 86 2 DO Q 92 5 85.6 86 8 85 87 90 8 1fl33 92.9 90.7 79.6 72.6 70.9 67.7 69.9 78.0 83.6 80.5 Corrected to 28-day basis. TABLE 50. RECEIPTS OF CREAM AT THE PHILADELPHIA MARKET, BY MONTHS, 1929-1933 1 (Hundreds of 40-quart units) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Total 1<)M 250.9 212.8 316 8 376.9 419 4 430 457 1 417 3 381 5 255 1 221.2 209 5 3948 5 1930 243.2 206.7 311.4 305.0 515.0 414.5 401.3 378.7 364 9 337.1 228.9 223.6 3930.3 1931 186.3 192.2 278 6 338 352 3 371 4 390 3 362 226 233 2 197 6 210 8 3338 7 1932 1933 230.1 188.4 231.0 183.9 215.6 203.7 225.6 217.9 330.6 318.0 341.8 282.0 241.6 327.9 218.9 296.8 233.9 198.5 164.3 177.3 159.8 134.0 139.7 157.4 2732.8 2685.8 'As reported by U. S. Bureau of Agricultural Economics. Data for 1929 and 1930 from U. S. D. A. Yearbooks for 1930 and 1931. Later data from monthly reports issued by the Bureau. TABLE 51. INDEXES OF RECEIPTS OF CREAM AT THE PHILADELPHIA MARKET, BY MONTHS, 1929-1933 (Same month 1929-1931 = 100) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Aver- age 1929... 110 6 104 5 104 8 110 9 97 8 106 1 109 8 108 1 117 7 92 7 102 4 97 6 105 3 1930. . 107 2 101 5 103 89 7 120 1 102 3 96 4 98 1 112 6 122 5 106 104 2 105 3 1931 82 1 94 4 92 2 99 8 82 1 91 6 93 8 93 8 69 7 84 8 91 5 98 2 89 5 1932 1933 101.4 83 1 109.51 90 3 71.3 67 4 66.4 64 1 77.1 74 1 84.3 69 6 58.0 78 8 56.7 76 9 72.2 61 2 59.7 64 4 74.0 62 1 65.1 73 3 74.6 72 1 Corrected to 28-day basis. 1934] PRICES AND CONSUMPTION OF MILK 473 TABLE 52. RETAIL PRICES OF MILK DELIVERED TO CONSUMERS IN NEW YORK CITY, 1929-1933 1 Period Per quart January, 1929, to April, 1930 cents 16 May to August, 1930 15 September to December, 1930 16 January to October, 1931 15 November, 1931. . 14 December, 1931, to December, 1932 . . 12 January, 1933 11 February to May, 1933 10 June to July, 1933 11 August to December, 1933 12 'As reported in monthly Fluid Milk Report, U. S. Bureau of Agricultural Economics. TABLE 53.- -RETAIL PRICES OF MILK DELIVERED TO CONSUMERS AND OFFERED IN STORES, PHILADELPHIA, 1929-1933 1 Period Per quart January to August, 1929 cenlt 13 September to December, 1929 14 January tn Bflfwm her, 1<)Sn , , , ... , 13 12 September, 1931, to February, 1932 11 March to October, 1932 10 November, 1932, to May, 1933. . . . 9 June to August, 1933 10 September to December, 1933. . .... 11 l As reported in monthly Fluid Milk Report, U. S. Bureau of Agricultural Economics. TABLE 54. RETAIL PRICES OF LIGHT CREAM AT NEW YORK CITY, 1929 TO 1933 1 Period Per half-pint January, 1929, to March, 1930 centi 19 April to November, 1930 17 December, 1930, to January, 1931 15-17 15 July to October, 1931 12 November 1931, to January, 1932. . 13 February to April, 1932 14 May to November, 1932 12 December, 1932, to January, 1933 10-12 February to April 1933 9-10 May to July, 1933 11-12 August to December, 1933 12-13 l As reported in monthly Fluid Milk Report, U. S. Bureau of Agricultural Economics. 474 BULLETIN 397 [January, TABLE 55. RETAIL PRICES OF LIGHT CREAM AT PHILADELPHIA, 1929-1933 1 Period Per half-pint January, 1929, to December, 1930 cenlt 17 January to June, 1931 16 July, 1931, to February, 1932 15 March to October, 1932 14 November, 1(132, tft Diw-rnhM-, 1933 , , .'...... 13 As reported in monthly Fluid Milk Report, U. S. Bureau of Agricultural Economics. Where a wide range of prices in excess of the usual sales price was reported the lower figure reported was tabulated. TABLE 56. CHANGES IN RETAIL DELIVERED PRICE PER QUART OF MILK, BOSTON, 1928-1933 1 Period Per quart Period Per quart August, 1928, to May, 1929 cents 15 5 August-November, 1931. cents 13 5 June, 1929. . 14 5 December, 1931 12 5-10 July, 1929, to May, 1930 15.5 January- Jimp, 1932. 10 June- July, 1930 14 5 July, 1932 10 0-11 August-November, 1930 15 5 August, 1932, to January, 1933. 11 December, 1930 15.5-14.5-13.5 February-April, 1933 10.0 January, 1931 13.5 May, 1933 10.0-11.0 February-July, 1931 12 5 June-August, 1933. 11 September-December, 1933. 11 0-12 'From data obtained thru the courtesy of New England Milk Producers' Association. TABLE 57. STORE PRICES FOR 35-PERCENT CREAM AT BOSTON, 1928-1933 1 (Cents per half-pint) 193 3 Month 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 Regular Week-end special January 16 19 19,15 15 18 2 for 25* 10 February. , 16 19 15 15, 2 for 27 18 2 for 25* 10 March 16 19 15,17 Single: 14, 13, 15, 14 14 18 2 for 25* 10 April . . . 16, 17 19 17 14 18, 15 2 for 25* 10 May 17 19 17, 15, 14 14 15 Jimp 17 19 17 14 17 14 15 2 for 25* 2 for 25* 10 July 17 17 17 14 2 for 25* 2 for 25* 14 August 17, 19 17, 19 17, 19 14, 16 2 for 25* September 19 19 19 16, 17 2 for 25* October 19 19 19 17, 18 2 for 25* November 19 19 19 18 2 for 25* December 19 19 19, 16, 15 18 2 for 25* Average. 17 4 18 6 17 1 15 3 13 2 'Data obtained thru courtesy of the New England Milk Producers Association. 1934-} 475 TABLE 58. AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES OF EVAPORATED MILK IN CHICAGO, BY MONTHS, 1925-1933 1 (Cents per 14j^-ounce can) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Aver- age 1925-1927 9 9 9 93 9 93 9 93 9 93 9 97 10 00 10 00 9 97 10 04 10 04 10 04 10 00 1925... 9.6 9.7 9.7 9 7 9.7 9 7 9 8 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 1926 9.9 9.9 10.0 9.9 9.9 10.0 10 9 9 9 9 10 2 10 2 10 2 10 1927 10 2 10 2 10 1 10 2 10 2 10 2 10 2 10 2 10 2 10 2 10 2 10 2 10 2 1928 10.3 10.2 10.0 9.9 9.8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 1 10 2 10 2 10 1 10 1 1929 10.1 10.0 10.1 9.8 9.6 9.7 9.6 9 6 9 4 9 4 9 2 9 3 9 7 1930 9.2 9 2 9 1 9.1 9 1 9 1 9 9 8 9 8 9 8 7 8 5 9 1931 9.0 9.1 8.3 8.0 7.9 7.8 8 8 2 7 8 7 9 7 9 8 8 1 1932 7.8 7.9 7.7 7.7 7.3 6.7 6.5 6.3 6 3 6 1 6 6 3 6 9 1933 6.5 6.4 6.0 6.3 6.7 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.2 'From current reports of U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prices from January, 1925, to December, 1931, converted from 16-ounce can to 14H-ounce can by multiplying by .90625. TABLE 59. INDEXES OF AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES OF EVAPORATED MILK IN CHICAGO, BY MONTHS, 1925-1933 (Same month 1925-1927 = 100) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Aver- age 1925... 97 98 98 98 98 97 98 99 98 98 98 98 98 1926 100 100 101 100 100 100 100 99 99 103 103 103 100 1927 103 103 102 103 103 102 102 102 102 103 103 103 102 1928 104 103 101 100 99 99 99 99 101 103 103 100 101 1929 101 101 102 99 97 97 96 96 94 95 91 92 97 1930 93 93 92 92 92 91 90 90 89 90 86 84 90 1931 91 92 84 81 80 78 80 82 78 80 78 79 81 1932 79 80 78 78 74 67 65 63 63 62 59 62 69 1933 66 64 60 63 68 67 69 71 72 74 73 TABLE 60. AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES OF EVAPORATED MILK IN PEORIA, BY MONTHS, 1925-1933 1 (Cents per 14 Bounce can) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Aver- age 1925-1927 . . . 10.40 10.40 10.50 10.5 10.33 10.33 10.43 10.43 10.40 10.40 10.37 10.33 10.4 1925 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.4 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.5 10.5 1926 10.5 10.4 10.7 10.7 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.5 1927 10 2 10 3 10 2 10 2 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 1928 10.3 10.2 10.2 10.2 9.9 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.1 10.1 10.2 1929 10.2 10.2 10 3 10.0 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.2 9.2 9.1 8.9 9.6 1930 8 9 8 9 8 8 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.9 8.7 8.7 8.8 1931 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.2 8.0 7.9 7.8 8.2 7.8 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.1 1932 8.0 7.9 7.7 7.5 7.3 6.8 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.8 6.4 6.8 1933 6 8 6 6 5 9 6 5 6 9 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.1 'From current reports of U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prices from January, 1925, to December, 1 93 1 , converted from 16-ounce can to 14}4-ounce can by multiplying by .90625. 476 BULLETIN 397 [January, TABLE 61. INDEXES OF AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES OF EVAPORATED MILK IN PEORIA, BY MONTHS, 1925-1933 (Same month 1925-1927 = 100) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Aver- age 1925 .. 101 101 101 101 102 101 102 102 102 102 101 102 102 1926 101 100 102 102 101 101 100 100 100 100 100 100 101 1927 98 99 97 97 98 99 99 99 98 98 98 99 98 1928 99 98 97 97 96 98 97 97 97 98 98 98 98 1929 . . . 98 98 98 95 94 93 91 91 89 89 88 86 92 1930 86 86 84 84 85 85 84 84 85 86 84 84 84 1931 82 81 79 78 77 77 75 79 75 77 77 77 78 1932 77 76 73 71 71 66 59 59 59 58 56 62 65 1933 65 63 56 62 67 68 67 67 07 67 69 TABLE 62. AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES OF BUTTER IN CHICAGO, BY MONTHS, 1925-1933 1 (Cents per pound) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Aver- age 1925-1927 52 27 52 00 55 03 51 83 49 50 49 73 49 20 49 40 52 20 55 16 56 70 58 56 52 63 1925 47 7 47 55 9 50 5 49 4 50 9 50 4 50 1 53 4 57 5 57 6 56 3 52 2 1926 51.3 50.8 50 8 47 3 47 2 48 47 1 47 8 50 5 53 7 56 3 60 6 51 1927 57.8 58.2 58.4 57.7 51.8 50 3 50 1 50 3 52 7 54.3 56 2 58 8 54 7 1928 56 54 1 56 3 52 9 52 7 52 1 52 8 54 1 56 1 55 2 57 58 3 54 8 1929 56.0 57.4 57.1 53 4 51 6 52 8 50 4 51 7 52 7 53 5 50 9 48 6 52 9 1930 .... 44 3 45 44 7 45 8 43 5 40 7 41 8 45 5 46 7 46 4 42 9 40 2 44 1931 35.8 34 5 36 6 36 5 29 29 30 1 34 2 36 8 39 9 37 36 5 34 4 1932 31.1 28.6 28.7 25 5 24 6 23 4 23 8 26 5 26 9 26 7 27 6 29 6 26 9 1933 26.5 25.1 24.4 26.6 28.4 27.5 31.5 26.4 27.3 28.9 29.0 'From current reports of U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. TABLE 63. INDEXES OF AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES OF BUTTER IN CHICAGO, BY MONTHS, 1925-1933 (Same month 1925-1927 = 100) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Aver- age 1925... 91 90 102 97 100 102 102 101 102 104 102 96 99 1926 98 98 92 91 95 96 96 97 97 97 99 103 97 1927 110 112 106 111 105 101 102 102 101 98 99 100 104 1928 107 104 102 102 106 105 107 110 107 100 100 100 104 1929 . 107 110 104 103 104 106 102 105 101 97 90 83 100 1930... 85 86 81 88 88 82 85 92 89 84 76 69 84 1931 .... 68 66 66 70 59 58 61 69 70 72 65 62 65 1932... 59 55 52 49 50 47 48 54 52 48 49 50 51 1933 51 48 44 51 57 55 64 53 52 52 51 1934} 477 TABLE 64. AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES OF OLEOMARGARINE IN CHICAGO, BY MONTHS, 1925-1933 1 (Cents per pound) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Aver- age 1925-1927 27 97 27 80 27.70 27.40 27 30 27.00 27.13 27.40 27.70 28.13 28.16 28 03 27 62 1925 27 6 27 6 27.4 27 4 27 2 27.2 27.5 28.1 29.0 29 5 29 4 29 3 28 1 1926 28 8 28 7 28.5 27.7 27.7 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.0 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 1927 27 5 27 1 27 2 27 1 27 26 9 26 9 27 27 1 27 4 27 5 27 2 27 2 1928 27 26 9 27 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.7 27.0 26.9 26 4 26.8 1929 26.2 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.4 26.5 1930 26 4 24 9 25 2 25 1 24 8 25.0 24 7 24.3 24 3 24.7 24.3 24 7 24 9 1931 24 1 22 5 21.5 21.4 19.6 17.7 17.5 17.7 18.0 19.2 19.8 20.1 19.9 1932 18 1 16 15 3 14 9 14 7 14 5 14 3 14 2 13 9 13 8 14 2 14 7 14 9 1933 13.6 13.3 12.9 13.1 13.7 13.8 14.1 14.5 15.0 15.0 13.0 'From current reports of U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. TABLE 65. INDEXES OF AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES OF OLEOMARGARINE IN CHICAGO, BY MONTHS, 1925-1933 (Same month 1925-1927 = 100) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Aver- age 1925 99 99 99 100 100 101 101 103 105 105 104 105 102 1926 103 103 103 101 102 100 100 99 98 98 98 98 100 1927 98 97 98 99 99 100 99 98 98 97 98 97 98 1928 97 97 98 97 97 98 98 98 96 96 96 94 97 1929 94 96 96 97 97 99 98 97 96 94 93 94 96 1930 94 90 91 92 91 93 91 89 88 88 86 88 75 1931 86 81 78 78 72 66 64 65 65 68 70 72 72 1932 65 58 55 54 54 54 53 52 50 49 50 52 54 1933 49 48 47 48 50 51 52 53 54 53 46 TABLE 66. AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES OF BUTTER IN PEORIA, BY MONTHS, 1925-1933 1 (Cents per pound) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Aver- age 1925-1927 52.33 50.90 53.66 50.83 48.33 48.73 47.76 47.60 49.80 52.33 53.73 56.00 51.03 1925... 49.2 46.5 55.0 50.4 48.0 49.5 49.2 49.3 51.5 55.3 55.7 54.3 51.2 1926 51.7 49.6 49.1 45.5 46.1 47.7 46.8 46.2 48.1 49.9 52.5 57.8 49.3 1927 56.1 56.6 56.9 56.6 50.9 49.0 47.3 47.3 49.8 51.8 53.0 55.9 52.6 1928 54.6 51.6 53.7 51.1 51.1 49.2 49.2 50.8 53.8 53.9 54.4 55.9 52.4 1929 53.4 55.2 55.4 51.8 49.8 49.1 48.7 48.9 50.0 50.5 47.3 47.0 50.6 1930 43 6 44.4 43.1 44.3 41.7 38.6 40.2 44.5 45.5 43.5 40.4 37.8 43.1 1931 34.1 33.3 35.1 31.8 27.9 28.6 29.6 32.6 34.3 38.6 36.0 34.2 33.0 1932 29.4 27.8 27.9 24.6 22.8 22.2 22.0 25.8 25.1 24.6 26.0 28.1 25.5 1933 25 6 24 23 4 24 8 26 3 26.6 28.7 23.9 25.4 26.0 26.1 'From current reports of U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 478 BULLETIN 397 '[January, TABLE 67. INDEXES OF AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES OF BUTTER IN PEORIA, BY MONTHS, 1925-1933 (Same month 1925-1927 = 100) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Aver- age 1925 94 91 103 99 99 102 103 104 103 106 104 97 100 1926 99 97 92 90 95 98 98 97 96 95 98 103 97 1927 107 111 106 111 105 100 99 99 100 99 99 100 103 1928 104 101 100 100 106 101 103 107 108 103 101 100 103 1929 102 108 103 102 103 101 102 103 100 96 88 84 99 1930 83 87 80 87 86 79 84 94 91 83 75 68 85 1931 65 65 66 62 58 59 62 68 69 74 67 61 65 1932 56 55 52 48 47 46 46 54 50 47 48 50 50 1933 . . 49 47 44 49 54 55 60 50 51 50 49 TABLE 68. AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES OF OLEOMARGARINE IN PEORIA, BY MONTHS, 1925-1933 1 (Cents per pound) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Aver- age 1925-1927 30.27 30.23 29.86 29.20 29.20 29.16 29.16 29.30 29.60 29.76 29.60 29 83 29 63 1925 30.7 30.8 30.3 29.8 29.9 29 8 29.7 30 8 31 1 31 5 31 2 31 2 30 6 1926 31.2 31.0 30.9 29.7 29.5 29.8 29.9 29.4 30.0 29.6 29.4 29 4 30 1927 28 9 28 9 28 4 28 1 28 2 27 9 27 9 27 7 27 7 28 2 28 2 28 9 28 3 1928 28.6 28 4 28 27.5 27.6 27 7 27 6 27 6 27 6 28 28 27 27 8 1929 27.3 28.0 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27 2 27 6 1930 26 8 26 9 26 4 26 3 26 3 25 9 25 8 25 5 25 3 25 24 6 24 5 25 8 1931 23.0 21.1 20 5 20.2 17 9 17 7 16 9 17 2 17 4 17 6 17 7 17 8 18 8 1932 17.4 15.6 15.3 14.5 14.1 13.1 13.0 13.6 13.1 13.3 12.9 13.0 14 1 1933 13.1 12.5 12.2 12.5 12.8 12.4 12.9 13.3 13.1 13.5 13.0 'From current reports of U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. TABLE 69. INDEXES OF AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES OF OLEOMARGARINE IN PEORIA, BY MONTHS, 1925-1933 (Same month 1925-1927 = 100) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Aver- age 1925 . . 101 102 102 102 102 102 102 105 105 106 105 105 103 1926 103 102 104 102 101 102 102 100 101 100 99 99 101 1927 96 96 95 96 97 96 96 95 94 95 95 97 96 1928 94 94 94 94 94 95 95 94 93 94 95 90 94 1929 90 93 93 95 95 95 95 94 93 92 93 91 93 1930 . . 89 89 88 90 90 90 89 87 85 84 83 82 87 1931 76 70 69 69 61 62 58 59 59 59 60 60 64 1932 . . 58 52 51 50 48 46 45 46 44 45 44 44 48 1933 43 41 41 43 44 44 44 45 44 45 44 1934] PRICES AND CONSUMPTION OF MILK 479 TABLE 70. AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES OF BREAD IN CHICAGO, BY MONTHS, 1925-1933 1 (Cents per pound) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Aver- age 1925-1927 9 93 9.93 9.93 9.87 9 87 9.87 9.87 9 87 9 87 9 83 9 83 9 83 9 87 1925 10.1 10.1 10.1 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.8 9 8 9 8 9 9 1926 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9 8 1927 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 1928 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.9 9.9 9.9 9 9 9 9 9 7 1929 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.8 1930 9.4 9 4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9 2 9 1 9 1 9 3 1931 . 9.0 8.9 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8 7 8 6 8 7 1932 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.4 7 4 6.3 7 5 1933 6.1 6.1 6.1 61 6.1 6.1 6.6 6.8 7.1 7.1 7.1 'From current reports of U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. TABLE 71. INDEXES OF AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES OF BREAD IN CHICAGO, BY MONTHS, 1923-1933 (Same month 1925-1927 = 100) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Aver- age 1925... 102 102 102 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 1926 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 100 100 100 99 1927 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 101 101 101 100 1928 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 100 100 101 101 101 98 1929 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 98 99 99 99 99 1930 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 94 93 93 94 1931 91 90 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 1932 78 78 78 78 77 77 77 77 76 75 75 64 76 1933 62 62 61 62 62 62 67 69 72 72 72 TABLE 72. AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES OF BREAD IN PEORIA, BY MONTHS, 1925-1933 1 (Cents per pound) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Aver- age 1925-1927 9.83 10 03 10.03 10 03 10 03 10 03 10.03 10.03 10.03 10.03 10.03 10.03 10.03 1925... 9.5 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 1926 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 1927 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 1928 10.0 10.0 10 10 10 10.0 10 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 1929 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 1930 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 9.6 9.4 9.9 1931 8.7 8.6 8.4 8.2 7.8 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.8 1932 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.8 1933 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.6 6.4 6.3 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 'From current reports of U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 480 BULLETIN 397 TABLE 73. INDEXES OF AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES OF BREAD IN PEORIA, BY MONTHS, 1925-1933 (Same month 1925-1927 = 100) Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Aver- age 1925 . ... 97 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 1926 102 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 1927 102 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 1928 102 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 1929 102 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 1930 . 103 101 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 96 94 99 1931 89 86 84 82 78 76 76 76 75 74 73 72 78 1932 70 69 69 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 67 68 1933 . . . 66 64 64 66 64 63 76 77 77 77 77 UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS-URBANA